MAY 22/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $4,70 TO $1975.00//SILVER DOWN DOWN 19 CENTS TO $23.70. PLATINUM WAS THE ONLY GAINER AMONG OUR PRECIOUS METALS, BEING UP $1.15 TO $1072.35//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN A STORNG 425.55 TO $1490.05//ANDREW MAGUIRE A MUST VIEW/ALSO MATHEW PIEPENBERG A MUST READ//AS PER DEBT CEILING ANOTHER MEETING TODAY AT 4:15 BETWEEN BIDEN AND REPUBLICAN REPRESENTAIVES// COVID UPDATES// VACCINE IMPACT/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA; WAGNER GROUP CLAIMS THEY HAVE NOW 100% OF BAKHMUT//ANOTHER MUST READ: SEYMOUR HERSH//TURKISH LIRA FLASH CRASHES BEYOND 20 TO ONE AS FOREIGN EXCHANGE LEAVES TURKISH BANKS//THERE IS NOW ONLY 57 BILLION DOLLARS LEFT IN USA TREASURY//GOLDMAN SACHS WARNS ON USA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE//HUGE SHOPLIFTING PROBLEMS IN NEW YORK//ALSO NEW YORK CITY SUFFERING DUE TO MIGRANTS ENTERING HOTELS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 25 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 100 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 5 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2 661 C JP MORGAN 12 737 C ADVANTAGE 1 2 800 C MAREX SPEC 3 880 H CITIGROUP 45 905 C ADM 7
TOTAL: 101 101 MONTH TO DATE: 6,032
JPMorgan stopped 12/101 contracts
FOR MAY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2023. CONTRACT: 101 NOTICES FOR 10,100 OZ or 0.31415 TONNES
total notices so far: 603,200 contracts for 603,200 oz (18.762 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 63 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 315,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2505 for 12,525,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP DOWN $4.70..
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//WOW!!
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/// A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.83 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD DESPITE THELOSS IN PRICE.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /; : INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 468.529 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 958 CONTRACTS TO 137,716 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.38 RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A STRONG 640 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION NEXT MONTH. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDER SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY: A STRONG 640 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS, IT FALLS ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS.
WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.38). BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 650 CONTRACTS ( MOST OF THIS LOSS OCCURED BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT THAT REPUBLICANS LEFT THE NEGOTIATION TABLE ON DEBT CEILING). WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 4.250MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH (TAS), AND FINAL WEEK (COMEX SPREADERS).
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 225 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 13.105 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 310,000 OZ (QUEUE JUMP RAISES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING)+0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK// TOTAL 4.25MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH(RAISES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING):THUS TOTAL OF 17.560 MILLION OZ OF STANDING FOR DELIVERY V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) LARGE NUMBER OF SHORT T.A.S. CONTRACT INITATION//ZERO T.A.S LIQUIDATION.
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -removed 25CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 days, total 10,525 contracts: OR 52.625 MILLION OZ . (657 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 52.625 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 52.650 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 733 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR $0.38 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 225 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF 13.105 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 310,000 OZ (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) +// + 0.0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH= 4.25 MILLION//NEW TOTALS 13.310 MILLION OZ + 4.25 MILLION = 17.560 MILLION OZ// .. WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 733 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES AS SOME OF THE SHORT SIDE SPECS WERE CAUGHT FLAT FOOTED ON THE RISE IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG 640!!//ZERO TAS LIQUIDATED.
WE HAD 63 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 315,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAR SIZED 1,214 CONTRACTS TO 486,848 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -151 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1,214 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $22.20 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY. AT 3.5085 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS 9700 OZ QUEUE JUMP :(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)/+ /A SMALLER ISSUANCE OF 812 T.A.S. CONTRACTS//NO TAS LIQUIDATION////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE $22.20 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2856 OI CONTRACTS (883 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4070 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 486,848
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3007 CONTRACTS WITH 1,063 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX//TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): 812 CONTRACTS) AND 4070 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3007CONTRACTS OR 9.353TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4070 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1,214) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2856 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.5085 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 9700 OZ // NEW STANDING: 19.0917 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 812 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 50,514 CONTRACTS OR 5,051,400 OZ OR 157.119 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3157 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 157.119 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 157.119/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY: 157.119 TONNES (HEADING FOR ANOTHER SMALLER MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 958 CONTRACTS OI TO 137,716 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 225 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 225 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 225 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 958 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 225OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 733 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 3.290 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.93 PTS OR 0.39% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 278/47 POINTS OR 0.90% /The Nikkei closed UP 227.60 OR 1.17% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.28 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.0293 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.0418 /Oil DOWN TO 71.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 75.72 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1214 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 486,697 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $22.20 ON FRIDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4070 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 4070 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4070 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2856 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4070LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1,214 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $22.20. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE),THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE THIS MORNING WAS A SMALLER 812 CONTRACTS. DURING THIS WEEK THEY SOLD THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE MANIPULATED THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDER SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (19.0717) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.0917 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $22.20) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2856 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD NO TAS LIQUIDATION.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 9.353PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY. (3.5085 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 9700 oz (0.3017 TONNES)//NEW STANDING 19.0917 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $22.20
WE HAD +REMOVED XXX CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3007 CONTRACTS OR 30700 OZ OR 9.353 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6032 notices 603,200 OZ 18.762 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: NIL oz
customer withdrawals: 0
total withdrawals: nil oz
Adjustments; 1//dealer to customer
out of Brinks: 46,220.901 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 207 contracts having GAINED 84 contracts. We had 13 contracts filed
on FRIDAY, so we GAINED A HUGE 97 contracts or an additional 9700 oz (0.3017 tonnes) will stand for gold in this non active delivery month of May
June LOST A SMALLER 9339 contracts DOWN to 177,474 contracts.
July added 359 contracts to stand at 2247 contracts.
AUGUST GAINED 8120 contracts UP to 251,996 contracts
We had 101 contracts filed for today representing 10,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 101 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 12 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6,032 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (207 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 101 x 100 oz per contract equals 613,800 OZ OR 19.0917 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON- active month of May.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAYcontract month: No of notices filed so far (6,032 x 100 oz) x 207 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (101)x 100 oz} which equals 613,800 oz standing OR 19.0917 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 19.0917 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,580,639.231 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,356,261.338 (384.331 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,224,378.008 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,659,678 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 331.56 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAY 22//2023// THE MAY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
408,195.128 oz Brinks Delaware HSBC’ JPMorgan
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
610,239.306 oz JPMorgan CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
63 CONTRACT(S) (315,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
157 contracts (785,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2505 Contracts (12,525,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 2 deposits into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: 600,206,200 oz
ii) Into CNT: 10,033.106 oz
Total deposits: 598,898.300 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 142.178 million oz/274.397 million =51.88% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals 4
i) Out of Brinks: 2983.14 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 48,306.790 oz
iii) Out of HSBC: 10,165.108 oz
iv) Out of JPMorgan: 346,740.090 oz
Total withdrawal: 408,195.128 oz
adjustments: 1//dealer to customer Brinks
i) Out of Brinks 54,679.220 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 30.978 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 274.397 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2023 OI: 220 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 33 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 29 CONTRACTS FILED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 62 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 310,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND
JUNE HAD A 21 CONTRACT GAIN TO 1139
JULY HAD A 1284 CONTRACT LOSS TO 112,391 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 63 for 315,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 38,625 fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 58,786 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2505 x 5,000 oz = 12,525,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(220) and the number of notices served upon today 63 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2023 contract month: 2505 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of May (220) – number of notices served upon today (63 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates to 13.310 million oz + THE CRIMINAL 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.250//NEW TOTAL 17.560 MILLION OZ//
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.83 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD DESPITE THE L0SS IN PRICE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.94 TONNES
MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934,07
MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.84 TONNES
MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.70 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 9/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.77 TONNES
MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AS DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $19.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.47 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 2/WITH GOLD UP $32.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES
APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES
APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES
APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES
APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 942.74 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MAY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ//
MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ
MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ/
MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ//
MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .643 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ.
MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ/
MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 3,123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ./
MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.18 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ
MAY 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.286 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ//
MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A TINY DEPOSIT OF .08 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.682 MILLION OZ//
MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.602 MILLION OZ//
MAY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.876 MILLION OZ//
MAY 4/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .174 MILLION OZ INTO SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.174 MILLION OZ//
MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.070 MILLION OZ//
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ
APRIL 28/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.482 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.103 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.182 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.102 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.285 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
De-Dollarization is a real, all too real trend, though it is both fascinating and disturbing to see what is otherwise so obvious being deliberately down-played, excused or ignored from the top down.
But then again, the laundry list of ignored facts and open lies from the top down to hide hard truths in everything from inflation data to recessionary debt traps is nothing new.
Instead, such propaganda replacing blunt transparency is the new normal (and classic trick) for all historical endings to debt-soaked (and failing) nations/systems and their fork-tongued (i.e., guilty) policy makers.
Slow & Steady
De-Dollarization, of course, is a gradual rather than over-night process.
Its origins stem from 1) years of exporting USD inflation overseas (to the painful detriment of friend and foe alike) and 2) the insanely stupid decision to weaponize the world reserve currency (i.e., USD) subsequent to a border war between two local tyrants in the Ukraine.
Whether or not you buy into the Western “media’s” narrative which categorizes Putin as Hitler 2.0 and Zelensky as a modern George Washington, the weaponization of the USD (and freezing of FX reserves) has made an already dollar-tired globe even more distrusting of Uncle Sam’s currency and IOUs.
This trend is confirmed by the profound dumping of USTs throughout 2022 and the undeniable trend among the BRICS (and the 36 other nations) to deliberately seek bilateral trade agreements and settlements outside of the USD.
Furthermore, with Saudi talking to China and Iran, and with China talking to Mexico, Russia and just about everyone else, it’s fairly clear that a move away from the once sacred petrodollar (Pakistan now seeking Russian oil in Yuan) is no longer just the fantasy of conveniently eliminated folks like Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi…
As I discussed here and here, the petrodollar is under threat, which means longer-term demand for the USD is equally so.
But the USD Still Has Legs—For Now…
That said, there’s also no denying that the USD is still very strong, very important and very much in demand.
After all, and despite welching in 1971 on its 1944 promise to be gold-backed, the USD is still the world reserve currency.
With over 40% of global debt instruments denominated in Greenbacks and over 60% of the reservoir of global currencies composed of USDs, this reserve status (and hence forced demand) aint going anywhere too soon.
Furthermore, and as I have written and agreed, the so-called “milk-shake theory” is not altogether wrong.
That is, demand for USDs (and USTs) within the tangled and levered web of US derivative and Euro Dollar markets is baked into a system which will take years (not days) to unravel, monetize or replace, and this sure as heck won’t be orderly, global nor overnight.
Then Comes Change, Pain and Open Denial
But let’s get real: The days of the USD as a trusted payment system or hegemonic power broker are unwinding right before our very eyes.
And the best way to see the truth of this reality is to catalogue the ever-expanding list of lies from the big boys and their complicit, media ja-sagenders (“yes-sayers”) desperately trying to deny the same.
At first, for example, the centralized economists were blaming de-dollarization and CNY energy transactions on the Russian sanctions.
Gee. Go figure?
Thereafter, the economists said de-dollarization is just the result of Emerging Market (EM) countries momentarily running out of (in fact they’re intentionally dumping) USD reserves.
Western “experts” are trying to convince themselves and the rest of the world that EM nations will implode unless they eventually acquire more USTs and USDs to buy energy.
What these experts are failing to see (or say), however, is that many of those countries are already beginning to buy that energy outside of the USD…
Folks, de-dollarization in global commodity markets is happening already, and will accelerate rather than fade away into some fantasy image of how the “West was Won,” for as argued elsewhere, the West is already losing.
Facts Are Stubborn Things
As for the list of nations, both big and small, de-dollarizing right before our watering eyes, just consider, well…China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Ghana, Bolivia…
Even the world’s largest hardwood pulp producer, Suzano SA, is in talks with China to trade its commodity in CNY.
This transition from a weaponized USD to an expanding CNY is not just the sensationalism of fiat-haters but the hard math of real events and data, which the following chart of the Renminbi Globalization Index (up 26% in 2022) makes all too clear…
The undeniable trend and rise (which is not the same as “hegemony”) of the CNY is certainly not good news for the fiat-all-too-fiat USD, who is less and less the prettiest girl at the dance.
As trust/demand in the USD falls, so too does its purchasing power, which may explain why China, at the very same time its trade power increases, is simultaneously growing its gold reserves in anticipation for what it knows is coming but what the West still refuses to see, namely: The slow-drip neutering of Uncle Sam’s fiat currency.
See the trend folks?
We Told You So
See why picking a currency-for-energy war against Russia (the world’s biggest commodity exporter and a nuclear power in bed with China, the world’s biggest factory owner and a nuclear power) may have been a bad idea?
As we warned literally from day-1 of the sanctions, this was obviously not the same as picking a sanction fight with say, Iran or Venezuela…
Nope. This scale of this was far more dangerous, and the avoidable casualties still piling up in the West’s proxy war (on Ukrainian soil/rubble) are not just soldiers and civilians, but Greenbacks too.
This was foreseeable.
Even Obama foresaw it in 2015:
Clearly, Biden’s handlers, however, didn’t see it in 2022.
They wanted to play war rather than sound economics, and the end result will be a loss of both.
As for the USD: Volatility Before Debasement
As for the fate and price of the USD near-term and long-term, the move will be volatile rather than in a straight line north or south.
The USD can still go higher, much higher, as fewer Greenbacks overseas still face large debt payments.
Ultimately, however, Uncle Sam’s own twin deficits and schoolyard of children masquerading as House Members/”leaders” will deficit spend the USA into a debt spiral whose only “cure” is more mouse-clicked and debased dollars along side more unloved and over-issued USTs (IOUs).
Thereafter, the up and down moves of the USD will eventually just sink, Titanic-like, in one direction as ever-more USD’s collide with a growing debt iceberg.
As argued so many times, but worth repeating: The last bubble to die in a debt-soaked regime is always the currency. Even the increasingly unloved world reserve currency will be no exception to the laws of over-supply and decreasing demand.
We have always warned that Powell’s rate hikes (too much, too fast, too late) would be too expensive for Uncle Sam, and would thus break things here and abroad—from repo markets, gilt markets and Treasury markets to a US fiscal implosion and dying regional banks.
Next to implode are the labor markets.
Six decades of data confirm that rising rates always break things.
But when you place such rising rates into the context of the greatest debt crisis in US (as well as global) history, the “breaking” gets really ugly.
Until the Fed supplies more inflationary liquidity (fiat-fantasy money), the dual forces of a hawkish Powell and a de-dollarizing yet milk-shake world means the USD could rise and squeeze out the dollar short traders nearer term.
Anything but “Softish”
Ultimately, however, and after enough smaller banks have been murdered (more will die) and after the UST market has suffered all it can suffer, too much will break at once, and it won’t be soft, or even “softish.”
This is not fable but fact. The only “tool” the centralizers will have left is more synthetic, fiat (and inflationary) liquidity on demand.
This trend is simple: Uncle Sam is broke and his only solution is a money printer.
In short, a counterfeit answer to a real cancer.
Don’t believe me?
Just ask the US Treasury Dept.
More Ignored Math from DC
The latest TBAC (Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee) confirms the US has already deficit spent $2.060T in fiscal 1H23, the interest expense alone of which is 101% of tax receipts.
This effectively puts the USA into a red-zone of imbalance reminiscent of the COVID crisis, only this time they don’t have COVID to blame for a debt addiction that was in play long before Fauci stained our screens or Powell printed more money post-March-of-2020 than was produced in the entire compounded history of our nation.
The TBAC report further indicated that projected US Federal deficits for 2023 to 2025 have risen by 30-50% in just the last 90 days…
And folks, the only way to pay for this embarrassing bar tab in DC is either more open QE (mouse-clicked trillions) and/or a much, much, much weaker USD to inflate away this debt as we head simultaneously into the mother of all recessions.
Such a crisis, of course, could be preceded by temporary (relative, rather than inherent) spikes in the USD until more UST supply/liquidity weakens the Greenback and sends gold higher, regardless of the USD’s relative strength and then subsequent weakness.
Meanwhile the Propaganda from On-High Continues
As I’ve said in interview after interview, you know things are getting really bad when comforting words and de-contextualized data increasingly replace simple (but scary) math.
At $95+T in public, household and corporate debt, the US has irreversibly passed the Rubicon of any easy solutions.
As Egon von Greyerz makes abundantly clear week after week, the US in general and the Fed in particular have irrevocably cornered themselves.
Stated otherwise: The USA is screwed.
DC has to chose between saving its “system” (of insider/TBTF banks, self-interested politicos–from the Maoist “woke” to the neocon “dark” and Wall Street Socialism) or destroying its currency.
Needless to say, it’s ultimately the currency that will fall on the sword for this now openly corrupt and pathetic “system.”
But again, rather than confess their own sins, the message is always “be calm and carry on.”
The Latest Fantasy Chart
Take, for example, the latest puff-tweet regarding Bloomberg’s “US Economic Surprise Index” which paints an oh-so rosy picture of the US economy rising at the fastest pace in over a year.
But as far smarter folks than me (i.e., Luke Gromen) will remind, this so-called data is ignoring a few contextual elephants in the room…
Context Helps
First, the above “good news” ignores a US debt/GDP ratio of 125%, a deficits/GDP ratio of 8% and government spending at 25% of GDP.
Secondly, US Government Outlays (i.e., deficit spending) has been growing at 30% for five of the last seven months.
Spending rates like this have only occurred twice in the last four decades, namely: 1) during the height of the COVID hysteria and 2) during the height of the 2008 GFC.
So, despite the “good news” in puff-charts above, the pundits are ignoring the fact that Uncle Sam (and his mis-fit children in the House of [lobbied] “Representatives”) are spending as if the USA is already in the eye of a financial storm.
And yet we haven’t even seen the recession officially hit or labor and risk markets tank, YET.
Imagine the spending when things get officially far worse than today—and they will; it’s now mathematical.
Out of Sight, Out of (Our) Mind
Sadly, however, very few investors are seeing the bigger picture and the wandering elephants.
In the interim: 1) the military industrial complex will create more profits and jobs here and more casualties overseas; and 2) deficit spending will keep unemployment in check (for now) and GDP “stable” until 3) its deficits (and debts) cancerously metastasize within a nation frog-boiling in debt and fractured by manufactured identity politics over transgender beer ads and slavery reparations from the 1860’s.
Such “woke” trends are ironic, given the fact that middleclass Americans of all colors, sexualities, “privileges” or political bends are already unknowing slaves/serfs in a modern feudalismof fake capitalism fighting against the bogus (yet SJW) “equity” euphemism of a woke (but hidden) re-distribution of social “shares” smacking of modern yet genuine Marxism.
Slowly, Then All at Once
And amidst all this distraction, division and in-fighting, the reality of rising rates colliding into historically unprecedented debt levels will just crush all stripes of Americans in the same manner Hemingway described poverty: “Slowly, then all at once.”
As Egon has often told me: Be careful what you wish for or already know.
Gold will inevitably go higher as the rest of the nation/world slides into its foreseeable debt trap and fiat end-game.
This may be obviously good for gold; but it will be at the expense of so much else, as the disorder ahead is neither fun nor pretty.
And it’s only just beginning…
end
WALL STREET ON PARADE
PAM AND RUSS MARTENS: A MUST READ!! ACTUALLY BY DEC 22/IT WAS THE LARGEST BANKS THAT SAW A SHEDDING OF DEPOSITS!
Pretty much everything the average American has read about the banking crisis is wrong. And there is at least a prima facie case that could be made that Big Media is responsible for that misinformation.
Let’s start with the dozens of mainstream media reports that small banks were bleeding deposits and these deposits were flooding into the biggest banks in the U.S. as a safe haven. Those reports gave the distinct impression that the mega banks on Wall Street are viewed by Americans as a safe place to stash money, never mind that they blew up the U.S. financial system in 2008 and still have more than $200 trillion in derivatives lurking in the shadows.
According to FRED data compiled by the St. Louis Fed (see chart above), bank deposits at the 25 largest U.S.-chartered commercial banks peaked at $11.556 trillion on April 13, 2022, then went into a persistent downtrend that erased $457 billion of deposits by December 12, 2022. Meanwhile, the more than 4,000 small U.S. banks, on the other hand, produced a $25 billion gain in deposits in the same time span.
It was not until all of those news articles appeared in March and April of this year, saying that small banks were losing deposits, that the small banks actually saw a sharp drop in their deposits.
On April 28, the Bloomberg columnist, John Authers, wrote a column that was syndicated to the Washington Post. Authers included this misleading information about the four largest U.S. banks: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup’s Citibank.
“This summary from the Canadian firm Palos Management explains neatly why the bigger banks are still OK:
“The first quarter’s performance of the big four was consistent with a broad consensus that the big banks have capitalized on massive depositor inflows, clearly related to the well-documented liquidity stresses facing their smaller, regionally based brethren. This should come as no surprise. The panic-fueled depositor exodus from the smaller banks to the larger ‘too big to fail’ banks is simply a rational decision. Protection of capital rules.”
“The deposit losses at JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are more than twice what the 4,000 small banks lost in total during the same period. Their combined loss in deposits was just $210 billion…
“Bank of America and Wells Fargo not only lost those large deposit sums on a year-over-year basis, but both banks saw deposits fall during the past five quarters, including the quarter ending March 31, 2023 when headlines were declaring that they were seeing big inflows of deposits as a result of the banking crisis. JPMorgan Chase lost deposits in each of the quarters in 2022 and then saw a small increase in deposits in the first quarter of this year – likely from all of those misleading headlines. (This information is easily obtained from the financial statements the firms file publicly with the SEC.)”
Over this past weekend, the Wall Street Journal ran a big article on how the banking crisis has “only made JPMorgan stronger.” (Paywall.) Reporter David Benoit writes as follows about JPMorgan Chase’s purchase of the collapsed bank, First Republic:
“Yet JPMorgan’s show of strength, for many, exposed a weakness in the U.S. financial system. The bank and its largest rivals have become so big, their reach so extensive, that the government would almost surely step in to prevent their failure. That implicit guarantee encourages people and businesses to move their money to them in times of stress creating a feedback loop that makes big banks bigger at the expense of their smaller peers.”
The only feedback loop we’re seeing is the echo chamber of the mainstream business press.
What is not in dispute about JPMorgan Chase’s grab of First Republic Bank is the following: JPMorgan Chase was first called First Republic’s “rescuer” by the media. Then JPMorgan Chase became First Republic’s “advisor” to find strategic options for its survival. Then JPMorgan Chase put at least 800 of its employees to work on doing due diligence in order to buy First Republic for itself and get a sweetheart deal from the FDIC. The sweetheart terms of the deal include the FDIC eating 80 percent of any losses on single-family residential mortgages for 7 years and 80 percent of any losses on commercial loans, including commercial real estate, for five years. The FDIC also, bizarrely, handed JPMorgan Chase a $50 billion, five-year fixed-rate loan at an undisclosed interest rate.
The X-DATE is the day the US Treasury goes broke, writes Jim Rickards in The Daily Reckoning.
It’s not the same as the debt ceiling but it is a consequence of the failure of Congress to raise the debt ceiling.
Right now, the Treasury is at the debt ceiling. That means it has no legal authority to issue net new debt. It can issue new debt if old debt is maturing. That keeps the total debt unchanged; you’re just rolling over maturing debt into new debt without increasing the total debt.
The problem is that the US is running $2 trillion per year deficits. It’s not enough to just roll over existing debt. You have to issue new debt to finance the deficits and that’s where the debt ceiling bites.
How is the US Treasury paying its bills today without new debt? They’re playing shell games, playing fast and loose.
There is some net cash flow from tax collections in the April time frame although that’s being rapidly depleted by tax refunds. There are some other tax collections including excise taxes.
The Treasury has some slush funds including the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), currently over $100 billion. The ESF was created in 1934 using the profits from FDR’s confiscation of gold at $20 per ounce and subsequent revaluation to $35 per ounce.
It has been used numerous times including in the 1994 Mexican bailout that Congress refused to authorize (ESF use has no congressional oversight).
Recently part of the ESF was used to bail out Silicon Valley Bank. But eventually even the cash flow and the slush funds run out of juice. Then the Treasury goes broke. That’s the X-Date.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently estimated the X- Date is June 1. Yellen knows little about monetary or fiscal policy and her June 1 date was probably a political ploy to put pressure on Republicans to raise the debt ceiling without conditions, as favored by the White House.
We shouldn’t rely on Yellen’s estimates; she’s not very competent at this. That’s being generous. She’s over her skis. All the same, there is an X-Date and it’s coming sooner rather than later.
Most investors are ignoring this development and are assuming that Congress will strike a deal with the White House, raise the debt ceiling and make the X-Date go away (for now). Well, all I can say is don’t be so sure.
J.P.Morgan has actually convened a war room that will soon be meeting three times per day to deal with the fallout of the X-Date and the possibility of the US missing principal and interest payments on US government securities or possibly skimping on Social Security payments or other entitlements.
They’re obviously taking the X-Date seriously, even if investors aren’t.
Whether the X-Date arrives or not, investors should at least be prepared for the market turmoil that will arise as the impasse between Congress and the White House comes down to the wire.
These are all short-term concerns. They’re important, but let’s zoom out toward the bigger fiscal challenges facing our nation.
Those who focus on the US national debt (and I’m one of them) keep wondering how long this debt levitation act can go on. The US debt-to-GDP ratio is basically at the highest level in history (124%), with the exception of the immediate aftermath of the Second World War. At least in 1945, the US had won the war and our economy dominated world output and production. Today, we have the debt – but without the global dominance we had in 1945.
The US has always been willing to increase debt to fight and win a war, but the debt was promptly scaled down and contained once the war was over. Today, there is no war comparable to the great wars of American history, and yet the debt keeps growing.
Debt has been increased and decreased on a regular basis over the long period of American history. But never until today was there a view that the deficit didn’t matter, and that it could be increased indefinitely.
Consider that it took the United States 193 years to accumulate its first trillion Dollars of federal debt. Amazingly, it routinely adds that much debt these days. These historic debt-management efforts have been bipartisan.
Republicans Harding and Coolidge reduced the debt; the Democrat Andrew Jackson actually eliminated the debt in 1836. Today there is bipartisan profligacy. Neither party today has the will to restore fiscal responsibility.
One party outright rejects financial responsibility altogether, the other party simply pays lip service to it. That’s why you can expect more of the same.
Although I was laughed at, I predicted that Trump would win the 2016 election. I was less sanguine about his prospects in the 2020 election, for a variety of reasons. And looking ahead? If Trump receives the 2024 Republican nomination, which I believe he will, he will face the same obstacles, only stronger.
The Deep State, the administrative state, whatever you want to call it, along with powerful factions within his own party, are moving heaven and earth to prevent Trump from getting the 2024 Republican nomination.
Regardless, we need to recognize that Trump is not some kind of fiscal conservative. He isn’t. And he wasn’t. He wasn’t a Paul Ryan Republican, whatever you think of Paul Ryan.
Regardless, today, in 2023, it doesn’t matter. Why not? Because the United States is going broke.
I don’t say that to be hyperbolic. I’m not looking to scare people. It’s just an honest assessment, based on the numbers.
Right now, the United States is over $31 trillion in debt. Now, a $31 trillion debt would be fine if we had a $50 or $60 trillion economy. The debt-to-GDP ratio in that example would be manageable.
But we don’t have a $50 or $60 trillion economy. We have about a $23 trillion economy, which means our debt is much, much bigger than our economy.
This is a question that I’ve asked before, but I need to ask it again: When is the debt-to-GDP ratio too high? When does a country reach the point that it either turns things around – or ends up like Japan?
As I’ve explained in previous articles, economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart carried out a long historical survey going back 800 years, looking at individual countries, or empires in some cases, that have gone broke or defaulted on their debt.
They put the danger zone at a debt-to-GDP ratio of 90%. Once it reaches 90%, they found, a turning point arrives. At that point, a Dollar of debt yields less than a Dollar of output. Debt becomes an actual drag on growth. Again the current US debt-to-GDP ratio is about 124%.
We are deep into the red zone, that is. And we’re only going deeper. The US has a 124% debt-to-GDP ratio, trillion- Dollar deficits are on the way, more spending is on the way.
We’re getting more and more like Japan, with its lost decades. We’re heading for a sovereign debt crisis in one form or another. That’s not an opinion; it’s based on the numbers.
Many nations around the world are actively seeking payment alternatives to the Dollar, which has only been accelerated by the unprecedented sanctions against Russia.
The process is well underway, which has of course been accelerated by the drastic US-led sanctions against Russia.
The world wants a change. I keep thinking about the saying widely attributed to Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
These days, it seems like decades are happening in days.
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
India to withdraw 2,000-rupee notes from circulation
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-05-20 09:18Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ira Dugal and Aftab Ahmed Reuters Saturday, May 20, 2023
MUMBAI — India will start withdrawing its highest value currency notes from circulation, the central bank said on Friday, in a move that economists said could boost bank deposits at a time of high credit growth.
The withdrawal of 2,000-rupee ($24.5) notes — which the finance ministry’s top official, T.V Somanathan, said would not cause disruption “either in normal life or in the economy” – also comes ahead of elections in four large states at the end of the year and a national ballot in spring 2024.
Most of India’s political parties are believed to hoard cash in high denomination bills to fund election campaign expenses to get around tough spending limits imposed by the Election Commission.
Announcing the withdrawal, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said evidence showed the denomination was not being commonly used for transactions.
The notes will remain legal tender, it added, but people will be asked to deposit and exchange them for smaller denominations by Sept. 30.
“The stock of banknotes in other denominations continues to be adequate to meet the currency requirement of the public,” the RBI added in a statement.
The 2,000 rupee note was introduced in 2016 after the Narendra Modi-led government abruptly withdrew 500 and 1000 rupee denominations in an effort to remove forgeries from circulation.
There is little evidence that plan succeeded, but the move did create a systemic shortage of cash by taking away 86% of the economy’s currency in circulation by value overnight.
The government began issuing new 500 rupee notes days later, and added the 2,000 to replenish currency in circulation at a faster pace. …
By Andy Verity British Broadcasting Corp., London Monday, May 22, 2023
UK and US regulators were told of a state-led drive to “rig” interest rates in the 2008 financial crisis, but covered it up, evidence indicates.
Documents suggest lenders sharply dropped their interest-rate estimates after pressure from central banks.
Evidence was not shown to juries at the time when bankers were jailed for smaller-scale interest-rate “rigging.”
Regulators said they had followed disclosure rules, declined to comment or in one case rebutted the claims.
Some evidence has previously emerged of Bank of England and UK government involvement in manipulation of interest rates. But the evidence indicating that it was part of a broader, international drive not just by the UK but by central banks across the Western world to push key interest rates down in October 2008 has never been published before.
The evidence indicates that in October 2008 central banks including the Bank of England, the Banque de France, the European Central Bank, Banca d’Italia, Banco de Espana, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York intervened on a large scale in the setting of Libor and Euribor.
At the height of the 2008 financial crisis, when bank lending had almost ground to a halt, central banks around the world urged calm. But my investigation reveals evidence that, behind the scenes, they were pulling levers to restore calm artificially — measures that would later be ruled to be against the law in the UK. …
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-05-20 09:00 Section: Daily Dispatches
9a ET Saturday, May 20, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
London metals trader Andrew Maguire, speaking with Shane Morand on this week’s “Live from the Vault” program from Kinesis Money, says central banks, excepting the Federal Reserve, are positioning themselves for an upward revaluation of gold, that the price for physical gold in China is already substantially higher than the nominal price in the West, and that suppression of gold prices on the New York Commodities Exchange is being exploited to drain gold out of London.
Rehypothecated Gold HELL! Live From The Vault Ep:123
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire brings us up to date on the escalating battle between physical and paper gold, the current price dip, and how the trapped Federal Reserve might be able to get out of its predicament. …
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
END
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS// FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.0293
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0418
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.93 PTS OR 0.39%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 227.66 PTS OR 1.17%
2. Nikkei closed UP 278.47 PTS OR 0.90%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.04 EURO RISES TO 1.0815 UP 22 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.382 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 138.27 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.430***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.274*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.471…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.364
3j Gold at $1973.40 silver at: 23.76 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 3 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.03//
3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 138.27 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .382% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8961 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9689 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.675 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.933 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.2493 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.83…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.0525 UP 6 BASIS PTS
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Flat As Fractured Debt Ceiling Discussions Resume
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 08:18 AM
US futures are flat as we start a new week and inch closer to the debt ceiling x-date: as a reminder, according to Janet Yellen the US could be in default in just 10 days. At 8:00am ET , S&P futures were up 0.1%, near session highs, after trading in a narrow range overnight; the tech-heavy Nasdaq was pressured by losses on semiconductor stocks after China said products from Micron Technology had failed a cybersecurity review. Micron shares dropped more than 5% in New York premarket trading, dragging down other chipmakers, including Nvidia and Qualcomm. Asian markets are higher, while European stocks trade near session lows. Bond yields are higher, rebounding from session lows, while the USD is slightly in the green with commodities also erasing earlier losses. MegaCap Tech names are up slightly pre-market. McCarthy and Biden spoke on Sunday and will resume negotiations today. Fed’s Kashkari, a Fed dove turned hawk (and soon to turn dove again) is now open to holding rates steady in June; OIS now sees more than 80% odds of a pause at the June mtg. Biden expected ties with China to improve very shortly and considers lifting sanctions on Chinese Defense Minister.
In premarket trading, Micron dropped 4.3%, leading fellow US semiconductor stocks, lower, after China said that the memory- chipmaker’s products have failed to pass a cybersecurity review in the country and banned it as a supplier. Meta Platforms fell more than 1.5%, after being hit with a record €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) European Union privacy fine. Apple slipped 1% as Loop Capital downgrades to hold, saying it sees a revenue downside risk. WeWork gained 4.8% as the beleaguered real estate company recouped some of the declines from last week’s four-session losing streak; for context it is trading at 22 cents a share. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Avrobio soars 63% on plans to sell its cystinosis gene therapy program for $87.5 million in cash.
DraftKings gains 3.1% after UBS upgrades its rating to buy based on stronger revenue growth and greater flow through to Ebitda.
Foot Locker is down 2.3% as Citi downgraded its rating to neutral following the athletic retailer’s significant guidance cut on Friday.
Intercept Pharmaceuticals shares tumble 15% after the company’s obeticholic acid failed to win the support of a panel of FDA advisers.
Meta Platforms shares are down 1% as the company was hit by a record $1.3 billion European Union privacy fine and given a deadline to stop shipping users’ data to the US after regulators.
Nike slips 2.1% after Williams Trading cuts the recommendation on the sportswear company to sell on the expectation that the US business will remain challenged through at least the first half of fiscal 2024.
PacWest Bancorp one of the regional US lenders that was engulfed in turmoil earlier this month, rises 4% after agreeing to sell a $2.6 billion portfolio of 74 real estate construction loans as part of its plan to shore up liquidity.
Revolve Group (RVLV) declines 2.5% after TD Cowen downgrades its recommendation on the e- commerce retailer, saying the company’s growth has cooled and that it sees limited near-term catalysts.
VectivBio rises 39% after agreeing to be purchased by Ironwood for $17/share in an all-cash transaction.
Zions Bancorp gains 2% as Hovde Group initiated coverage with an outperform, saying “misplaced fears” drove a discounted valuation.
The question for investors is whether US politicians will be able to reach a deal to raise the debt limit before the government runs out of money. Stocks gave up gains late on Friday after Republicans temporarily walked out. The urgency of the situation was underscored on Sunday by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said the chances are “quite low” that the US can pay all its bills by mid-June.
“There is a lot of showmanship around the debt ceiling,” said Sarah Hewin, senior economist at Standard Chartered Plc in London. “The closer we get to June 1 without a resolution, the greater the risk of an accident so there is a lot of potential for markets to get concerned.”
The debt-ceiling risks as well as concern for the US economy have induced investors to boost bearish positions on the S&P 500 to the highest since 2007.
European stocks are lower as investors remain hesitant amid the ongoing US debt-ceiling negotiations. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.3%, trading near session lows with telecommunication and utilities the best-performing sectors. Greek markets were a bright spot after Sunday’s national election resulted in a strong showing for Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, signaling that investment-friendly policies will continue. Here are the most notable European movers:
Ryanair shares rise as much as 2.5% after it reported a beat on net income in its FY results, driven by the low-cost airline’s better-than-expected pricing in 4Q, up around 26% versus 2019, says Citi. Analysts also welcome the confident outlook.
Dassault Systemes shares gain as much as 3.6% to the highest level since September. Stifel says in a note that strong software sales at Siemens, which reported earnings last week, bode well for Dassault Systemes.
Man Group shares rise as much as 2%, touching the highest since May 2, after BNP Paribas Exane raised the hedge fund manager to neutral from underperform on a more balanced risk-reward.
Begbies Traynor shares rise as much as 2.3% after the restructuring advisory firm releases a pre-close statement which Canaccord says indicates a strong finish to the year.
Polymetal shares slump as much as 37% after the London- listed gold miner’s Russian unit was sanctioned by the US. Top Russian gold miner Polyus PJSC and Polymetal JSC, Polymetal International’s Russian unit, were targeted.
Dechra shares fall as much as 8.7%, the most since February, after the UK pharmaceuticals firm said it has experienced a “more volatile and challenging” trading environment during the January to April period than previously predicted.
The benchmark Athens Stock Exchange General Index jumped to its highest level in almost a decade. The premium investors demand to hold Greek 10-year debt compared with super-safe bonds of Germany, fell to the lowest in more than a year while the cost of insuring exposure to Greek debt fell sharply, according to data from S&P Markit.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed higher by 0.7% for the day. A sub-gauge for technology stocks gained 2.2%, its biggest jump since March 31, tracking similar gains in peers in Asia and the US. Metal stocks surged after US President Joe Biden hinted at improving ties with China, which lifted outlook for the sector. Investors are keen to see however on how China’s economy is faring after its knee-jerk rebound following the removal of Covid curbs. Iron ore futures dropped for the third day in a row on signs of disappointing steel demand from the construction sector, while the most recent batch of industrial and retail sales data was unexpectedly soft.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded higher albeit with the mainland choppy after mixed commentary from the G7 and frictions related to China’s ban on Micron from key infrastructure, while the PBoC provided no surprises and kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged with the 1-year and 5-year LPRs kept at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.
Nikkei 225 was indecisive as the momentum from its recent rally to 33-year highs initially waned and with the mood also clouded by the surprise contraction in Machinery Orders, although the index later caught a second wind and broke above the 31,000 level.
Indian stocks rose after a rally in technology and base metal firms helped key stock gauges end higher for the second successive day on Monday. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.4% to 61,963.68 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.6% to 18,314.40. Shares of Adani Group soared, extending their gains from Friday, after the SEBI told a Supreme Court-appointed panel that it found no conclusive evidence of stock price manipulation in the conglomerate’s stocks. Flagship Adani Enterprises jumped 18.9% and the market value of the entire group swelled by $9.7 billion. Infosys Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%.
ASX 200 was subdued amid weakness in financials although losses were cushioned amid the improving trade environment between Australia and its largest trading partner as evidenced by an 89% rise in coal exports to China.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% while the Swiss franc is the clear outperformer among the G-10s, rising 0.5% versus the greenback. The Aussie dollar is the weakest.
Money markets bet on 5bps of Fed tightening in June but add to easing wagers beyond after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with Dow Jones that he may support holding interest rates at current levels in June. His comments echoed remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that gave a clear signal he is inclined to pause interest-rate increases next month. “Cracks may be showing in the FOMC’s rate hike path, and markets are pricing the new information in,” said Mingze Wu, an FX trader at StoneX Group.
In rates, treasuries are flat with the US 10-year yield unchanged at 3.67%, with yields rising modestly from session lows of 3.65%; 2s10s, 5s30s spreads are steeper by ~1bp. Bunds and gilts are also in the green. Sentiment continues to take cues from debt-ceiling negotiations, with President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy planning to meet Monday. On Sunday, Secretary Janet Yellen said the chances are “quite low” that the US can pay all its bills by mid-June. IG issuance slate includes NWB 5Y SOFR; expectations are for $15b to $20b in new bond sales this week, concentrated on Monday. Treasury auctions this week include 2-, 5- and 7-year sales over Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Three-month dollar Libor -1.80bp at 5.37471%.
In commodities, crude futures are little changed with WTI trading near $71.55. Spot gold rises 0.1% to around $1,980
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged trading around $27K, as specifics remain somewhat light and the broader markets focus on a number of moving parts but primarily the US debt ceiling, with Biden and McCarthy to speak today at some point.
There is nothing on today’s economic calendar, later this week we get the latest FOMC minutes release, revisions to 2Q GDP and the PCE deflator.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,205.00
MXAP up 0.7% to 163.16
MXAPJ up 0.5% to 515.79
Nikkei up 0.9% to 31,086.82
Topix up 0.7% to 2,175.90
Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 19,678.17
Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,296.47
Sensex up 0.3% to 61,926.65
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,263.25
Kospi up 0.8% to 2,557.08
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 469.60
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.41%
Euro little changed at $1.0802
Brent Futures little changed at $75.52/bbl
Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,976.92
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.23
Top Overnight News
China said it uncovered “relatively serious” cybersecurity risks in Micron products sold in the country, and warned makers of key infrastructure to avoid using the company’s memory chips. BBG
The EU has said the bloc will push ahead with plans to jointly buy hydrogen and critical raw materials after its first attempt at aggregated gas purchases was oversubscribed. FT
China left its 5 and 1-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged, a move that was widely expected. RTRS
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy suggested his country was losing control of Bakhmut after months of fierce fighting but downplayed Russian claims it now fully occupied the eastern city. BBG
G-7 leaders struggled to win over swing nations being courted by China and Russia at a weekend summit in Japan. A surprise visit from Volodymyr Zelenskiy gave him a chance to appeal to those who’ve been neutral on the war. He met with India’s Narendra Modi and Indonesia’s Joko Widodo, but a meeting with Brazil’s Lula da Silva fell through. BBG
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US is unlikely to reach mid-June and still be able to pay its bills, underscoring the urgency of the White House reaching a deal with Republicans to raise the debt limit. BBG
Auto inventory levels are back on the rise following years of shortages thanks to normalizing supply chain conditions and improved production. WSJ
Fed now seen cutting rates in Q1:24 instead of Q4:23 according to an updated survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). RTRS
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he is open to doing nothing at the June meeting given that inflation is coming down and amid all the bank uncertainty, but opposes any declaration stating rate hikes are definitively done. WSJ
Outflows from US equities, inflows to other assets. Cash, Bonds, and non-US stocks offer compelling alternatives to US stocks…
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly positive but with price action rangebound amid cautiousness as the debt limit deadline draws closer and following last week’s more balanced comments from Fed Chair Powell. ASX 200 was subdued amid weakness in financials although losses were cushioned amid the improving trade environment between Australia and its largest trading partner as evidenced by an 89% rise in coal exports to China. Nikkei 225 was indecisive as the momentum from its recent rally to 33-year highs initially waned and with the mood also clouded by the surprise contraction in Machinery Orders, although the index later caught a second wind and broke above the 31,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded higher albeit with the mainland choppy after mixed commentary from the G7 and frictions related to China’s ban on Micron from key infrastructure, while the PBoC provided no surprises and kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged with the 1-year and 5-year LPRs kept at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.
Top Asian News
PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (May) 3.65% vs. Exp. 3.65% (Prev. 3.65%); 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (May) 4.30% vs. Exp. 4.30% (Prev. 4.30%)
China’s cyberspace regulator said its review found that Micron Technology’s (MU) products have serious network security problems causing risks to China’s information infrastructure and announced that operators of critical information infrastructure in China should stop purchasing Micron Technology’s products, according to Reuters.
US Commerce Department said they firmly oppose China’s restrictions on Micron (MU) which have no basis in fact and that China’s action along with recent raids targeting other US firms is inconsistent with China’s assertions that it is opening its markets. It also stated that the US will engage directly with Chinese authorities to detail the US position and clarify China’s actions, while the US will also engage with key allies and partners to ensure close coordination to address distortions of the memory chip market caused by China’s actions.
Japan Business Lobby Keidanren Chief says this years inflation is facilitated by a weak JPY and energy cost increase, does not expect inflation from 2024 onward to be “that extreme”.
European bourses are mixed/flat, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% with the focus on upcoming debt ceiling discussions amid numerous broader incremental updates/developments ahead of Central Bank speak. Sectors are similarly mixed and lacking in breadth while Ryanair and Volvo are bolstered post earnings and a sizeable truck order respectively. Stateside, futures are contained but diverging slightly with the ES & NQ under modest pressure given the below Meta update and attention on Micron (-6.2% pre-market) after China’s cyberspace review (see APAC section); conversely, the RTY is holding just above the neutral mark. Meta (META) has been fined USD 1.3bln over data transfers to the US. Initially reported via the WSJ and subsequently confirmed by the IDPC. Meta -0.8% in pre-market. Subsequently, Meta says it will appeal the fine and there is no immediate disruption to Facebook within Europe. JPMorgan (JPM) raises FY23 Net Interest Income view to USD 84.0bln ex-CIB markets (prev. it was guiding for USD 81bln, market-dependent).
Top European News
UK PM Sunak reportedly opened the door into a sleaze probe on Home Secretary Suella Braverman and will discuss the speeding points row with the Prime Minister’s Independent Adviser on Ministers’ Interests Laurie Magnus, according to The Sun’s Political Editor Cole.
Greece’s ruling New Democracy Party held a significant lead against rivals in the early vote count and is set to win 145 of the 300 seats in parliament vs 71 seats for the leftist Syriza party, although a second round of voting is the most likely outcome with no clear majority, according to Politico and Reuters. There were also comments from PM Mitsotakis who said the election victory shows that New Democracy has the people’s approval to rule as a one-party government and that the mandate is a strong government, while he added that only strong governments can dare the changes needed. Click here for newsquawk analysis.
Since, Mitsotakis has called for a new vote potentially on June 25th.
Moody’s affirmed Portugal at Baa2; Outlook Revised to Positive from Stable.
German DIHK survey shows that the despite the economy showing resilience in a challenging environment thus far in 2023, growth will remain muted; maintains the forecast for economic stagnation this year.
FX
Franc outperforms as bond yields retreat and US debt ceiling impasse rolls on, USD/CHF eyeing 0.9850 from a peak just shy of 0.9000.
DXY hovering around 103.000 ahead of more Fed speakers that may err towards June rate pause like Chair Powell and Kashkari.
Euro pivots Fib and 100 DMA close to 1.0800 vs Greenback, but capped by expiries.
Yen contains losses beneath 138.00 against Buck irrespective of bleak Japanese machinery orders.
Kiwi elevated awaiting 25 bp hike from RBNZ, as NZD/USD hovers near 0.6300 and AUD/NZD cross sits sub-1.0600.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0157 vs exp. 7.0141 (prev. 7.0356)
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are softer intraday but have lifted off APAC lows with catalysts light and the move is perhaps a factor of broader macro concern over the US debt limit.
Currently, WTI and Brent are lower by around USD 0.20/bbl but remain towards the top-end of circa. USD 1.50/bbl parameters.
Spot gold is little changed while base metals are slightly softer given the firmer USD, the yellow metal is being cushioned from USD-pressure somewhat by the broader risk tone.
EU plans more joint purchasing after the success of the common gas scheme, according to FT
Fixed Income
Bonds push recovery envelope further before waning around 2.40% in Bunds, just shy of 99.00 in Gilts and 114-00 for the 10 year T-note.
GGBs and PGBs underpinned by political and positive ratings outlook respectively while the EU receives a relatively warm welcome for 2028 and 2034 debt offerings.
Geopolitics
Russia said its troops have taken control of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and Russian President Putin congratulated the Wagner group and the Russian army for the ‘liberation’ of the city, while Wagner group chief Prigozhin said they captured the entire territory of Bakhmut as promised and will be leaving the conflict zone on May 25th, according to TASS, Interfax and Reuters.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is confident Ukraine will get F-16 fighter jets from the West and said Kyiv’s peace formula has the potential to stop future aggressors. Zelensky also stated he is grateful for American support and the training mission which will give them a stronger battlefield position, while he appeared to have confirmed the loss of Bakhmut in which he noted that the city is destroyed and responded that he thought ‘no’ when asked if Bakhmut was still in Ukraine’s hands, according to Reuters.
Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister said Kyiv’s troops have partly encircled Bakhmut along the flanks and still control part of the city, while a top Ukrainian general said Ukraine controls an insignificant part of the city but added it is enough to enter the city when the situation changes and that Ukraine’s advances on flanks around Bakhmut are effectively nearing a tactical encirclement of Russian forces, according to Reuters.
US President Biden said Russians have suffered over 100k casualties in Bakhmut and that he has flat assurance from Ukrainian President Zelensky that Ukraine will not use F-16s to go into Russian geographic territory. President Biden also made it clear he is not prepared to trade certain items with China because of concern it would build weapons of mass destruction and he is not going to ease China sanctions but added that they are currently under negotiation on whether to lift sanctions on China’s Defence Minister, according to Reuters.
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister commented regarding Western plans to supply F-16s to Ukraine that the West is pursuing an escalatory path fraught with colossal risks for them.
Russia’s ambassador to the US said the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine would raise questions about NATO’s involvement in the conflict and said any Ukrainian strikes on Crimea are attacks on Russia and that Washington should be aware of Russia’s response, according to Reuters.
Explosions were reported in Odesa and Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid drone activity, while it was also reported that Russia launched an overnight air attack on Ukraine’s Dnipro, according to the Governor.
Taiwan President Tsai said they have shown the world the determination to defend themselves and that the world’s support for a democratic Taiwan is unprecedented, while she said they will maintain the status quo of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and said no one can change the status quo with the use of force. Furthermore, Tsai said the US arms aid for Taiwan addresses weapon delivery delays related to the pandemic and commented that they welcome visitors to Taiwan from Hong Kong, Macau and China.
US, Japan and South Korea’s leaders discussed how to take trilateral cooperation to new heights including in the face of North Korea’s illicit nuclear and missile threats, while US President Biden invited the Japanese and South Korean leaders for a trilateral meeting in Washington, according to Reuters citing the White House.
South Korean President Yoon announced that South Korea and Germany will sign a military information-sharing pact and will closely cooperate on North Korean denuclearisation, while Yoon said that South Korea will carefully review the list of non-lethal weapons requested by Ukrainian President Zelensky, according to Reuters.
Sudan’s army and paramilitary RSF agreed to a 7-day humanitarian truce and ceasefire on Saturday which takes effect after 48 hours, according to Reuters sources.
Russia’s Wagner group founder says their forces will be leaving Ukraine’s Bakhmut region from May 25th until June 1st.
“The Irish minister for foreign affairs Micheal Martin has said Ireland is open to changes that could see a shift away from the veto on some EU foreign policy and defence issues.”, according to RTE’s Connelly.
G7
G7 Final Communique stated they will support Ukraine for as long as it takes and called on China to press Russia to stop its military aggression immediately, while it noted that a growing China that plays by international rules would be of global interest and that the G7 is not seeking a policy designed to harm China or hinder its economic progress and are not decoupling nor turning inwards. G7 also stated that there is no legal basis for China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea and they oppose China’s militarisation activities in the region, while the G7 nations established a new initiative to counter economic coercion dubbed the Coordination Platform on Economic Coercion.
US President Biden said the G7 is united in its approach to China and that they are not looking to de-couple from China but are looking to de-risk and diversify which means resisting economic coercion. Biden also stated they should have an open hotline with China and that everything changed after the spy balloon incident but thinks there will be another shift and expects relations with China to thaw soon which will allow more conversations. Furthermore, President Biden said they will not tell China what it can do but will put Taiwan in a position to defend itself and noted there is agreement among US allies that if China were to do something on Taiwan unilaterally, there would be a response, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Ministry said China expresses strong dissatisfaction regarding the G7 Final Communique and lodged solemn representations with summit host Japan, while China’s Vice Foreign Minister summoned the Japanese ambassador over actions at the G7, according to Reuters.
China’s Embassy in Britain urged for the G7 to disregard Cold War mentality and to stop interfering in other countries’ affairs and called on the British side to stop slandering and smearing China to avoid further damage to China-UK relations, according to Reuters.
German Chancellor Scholz said they want de-risking and to diversify but added that nobody has an interest to curb growth in China and that they will make sure big investments in China from the US, Japan, Britain, France, Italy and Germany will continue so that they have supply chains in China and export goods to China, according to ZDF.
US Event Calendar
Nothing major scheduled
Central Bank Speakers
08:30: Fed’s Bullard Speaks on US Economy and Monetary Policy
11:05: Fed’s Bostic and Barkin Discuss Technology- Enabled…
11:05: Fed’s Daly Speaks at NABE/Bank of France Economic Symposium
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
This morning Head of DB Research David Folkerts-Landau has launched our AI week on my Thematic team with a 2-3 pager on why the AI hype cycle is in overdrive but why it’s (mostly) justified. Three things are different this time: the general nature of the technology, the low barriers to entry and the unprecedented speed of adoption. This will lead to waves of repercussions for society, and if harnessed correctly, productivity gains. See David’s intro to the series here. Henry and I will be publishing the first full note in the series later this morning looking at what history tells us about what major technological advancements over the last few centuries have meant for jobs. In every technological cycle there are always fears of human labour being extremely vulnerable. This time is no different, but history suggests a different outcome. Look out for our piece later. I’ll highlight it in my CoTD later.
Moving onto this week, clearly the debt ceiling will dominate. The latest is that President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet at the White House today to resume negotiations. There was a slightly more positive tone from both sides after a phone call between the two yesterday. This follows the GOP walking out on talks late Friday. Yellen said over the weekend that the chances that the US can pay its bills by mid-June are “quite low”.
Outside of this story, the highlights for the week ahead include the global flash PMIs tomorrow and the US PCE inflation release on Friday. The details of the University of Michigan Survey the same day are going to be interesting as 5-10yr inflation expectations spiked from 2.9% to 3.2% earlier this month in the prelim reading, a level that hasn’t been exceeded since 2007. This often gets revised down in the final print but if not, it could mark a firming of inflation at the consumer level. Watch for any upward revisions to Q1 US GDP on Thursday after recent better than expected data. Also on the data front we have UK inflation on Wednesday (last month shocked to the upside at 10.1% – 8.2% expected this week), various sentiment data in Europe and the Tokyo CPI in Japan on Friday.
From central banks, as the June FOMC slowly comes into view and with an increasing possibility of a hike that was all but ruled out 1-2 weeks ago, there are lots of Fed speakers, especially early in the week (see in the calendar at the end), and also the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. This might help show how high the bar is for the Fed to add more hikes.
Although earnings season is drawing to a close, Nvidia on Wednesday could be worth watching. Nvidia is up +112% in 2023 and has a market cap of $773bn highlighting why AI is becoming a huge topic and one that also moves macro markets. Nvidia is trading on heroic valuations which time will tell if they are justified.
The day by day weekly calendar is at the end as usual for a fuller list of what’s coming up.
Asian equity markets have shrugged off Friday’s GOP talks walkout losses on Wall Street following comments by President Biden during the G-7 summit that he sees US-China relations improving “very shortly”. Across the region, the Hang Seng (+1.32%) is leading gains with the KOSPI (+0.83%), the CSI (+0.39%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.11%) and the Nikkei (+0.10%) also up. S&P 500 futures (-0.03%) are trading just below flat with 10yr USTs -2.3bps lower, trading at 3.65%, as we go to press.
Early morning data showed that Japanese core machinery orders unexpectedly dropped -3.9% m/m in March (v/s +0.4% expected, -4.5% in February), contracting for the second month in a row. Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept their benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth straight month, keeping the one-year loan prime rate intact at 3.65% while the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was also held at 4.3%, as expected.
Looking at last week now and there were a number of fascinating themes. For most of the week there was growing optimism that US leaders were getting closer to reaching a deal on the US debt ceiling. However, on Friday, debt limit talks hit a wall as the GOP negotiators walked out on negotiations. This turn in events erased some of the earlier positive sentiment, and the x-date sensitive 1M T-bills sold off, with yields rising +2.6bps on Friday to 5.325%, leaving 1M yields down -9.5bps on the week. At one point Friday, 1M yields rose as much as +10.8bps to over 5.40% before coming back in over the last two hours of trading.
This all came while Chairman Powell stated in a speech on Friday that “rates may not need to rise as high given credit stress”, with the Fed to remain data dependent. In his prepared remarks he noted that “we can afford to look at the data and the evolving outlook to make careful assessments,” which seemed to indicate a pause in June is the most likely scenario. This was in some contrast to the more hawkish sentiment that came from Fed speak earlier in the week. Turning back to the banking sector, CNN reported that Treasury Secretary Yellen told bank CEOs that more mergers of large lenders may be needed looking ahead as sector stress continues.
Off the back of all this, the Fed rate priced in for June’s meeting by Fed fund futures fell back -4.3bps to 5.124% on Friday, although remained +2.6bps up on the week. The expected rate for July also slipped -1.0bps on Powell’s comments but gained +12.8bps in weekly terms, with markets seeing a Fed pause increasingly on the cards but not a July cut anymore. There was a -1.1bps fall for the expected rate for the final meeting of the year in December, but it was up +25.3bps on the week, pricing in -48.9bps of rate cuts by year end.
Against this backdrop, US fixed income whipsawed on Friday, with US 10yr yields down at the open before gaining +2.7bps to 3.673% after news on the debt ceiling, and up +21.0bps on the week, its greatest weekly increase since the week before last Christmas. US 30yr yields also climbed +2.3bps on Friday, up +13.8bps in weekly terms. The more policy sensitive 2yr yields traded largely flat on Powell’s comments, up +1.4bps on Friday, and +27.9bps in weekly terms. 10yr bund yields fell back -1.8bps on Friday, but were likewise up +15.1bps week-on-week.
With these developments, a risk-off sentiment weighed on US equity markets on Friday. The S&P 500 fell back -0.14% on Friday, although earlier gains left the index up +1.65% week-on-week. The NASDAQ slipped -0.24% on Friday but gained +3.04% last week as the tech sector outperformed. The likes of NVIDIA, Tesla and Meta were up +10.32%, +7.24% and +5.06% week-on-week respectively. Renewed concerns over banking sector stresses following earlier comments from Powell and Yellen saw the S&P 500 banks -0.71% on Friday (+4.63% on the week). The regional banking KBW index also fell -0.98% but was up +5.81% week-on-week after strong risk-on sentiment earlier in the week.
Over in Europe, markets finished the week up, with the STOXX gaining +0.72% on the week (+0.66% on Friday). The German Dax closed up +2.27% week-on-week (+0.69% on Friday) to all-time highs, its largest weekly up-move since before the mid-March banking stress.
Finally, turning to commodities, oil saw its best week since early April, breaking its four-week streak of weekly losses, as risk sentiment improved following debt ceiling reassurances from the White House. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, had also disrupted oil output, adding tightness to supply. Brent crude gained +1.90% on a weekly basis (-0.37% on Friday), up to $75.58/bbl. WTI crude gained +2.16% last week despite the pullback (-0.43%) on Friday.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Focus firmly on the debt limit alongside META & MU pressure – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 06:23 AM
European bourses are mixed/flat with US futures diverging slightly with the ES & NQ pressured by Meta and Micron.
Broader focus remains firmly on the debt ceiling after constructive weekend updates ahead of an expected Biden-McCarthy talk today (time TBC).
DXY holds above 103.00 with the CHF outperforming and peers otherwise generally contained
EGBs remain bid with the periphery outperforming after Greek elections and rating updates for Portugal and Ireland
Commodities are generally softer given the tone and USD strength alongside numerous geopolitical updates
Kashkari (voter) said he is open to foregoing a June hike, would object to a declaration that they are done increasing rates
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, Bostic & Barkin, ECB’s Lane, Holzmann, Villeroy, de Cos
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are mixed/flat, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% with the focus on upcoming debt ceiling discussions amid numerous broader incremental updates/developments ahead of Central Bank speak.
Sectors are similarly mixed and lacking in breadth while Ryanair and Volvo are bolstered post earnings and a sizeable truck order respectively.
Stateside, futures are contained but diverging slightly with the ES & NQ under modest pressure given the below Meta update and attention on Micron (-6.2% pre-market) after China’s cyberspace review (see APAC section); conversely, the RTY is holding just above the neutral mark.
Meta (META) has been fined USD 1.3bln over data transfers to the US. Initially reported via the WSJ and subsequently confirmed by the IDPC. Meta -0.8% in pre-market. Subsequently, Meta says it will appeal the fine and there is no immediate disruption to Facebook within Europe.
JPMorgan (JPM) raises FY23 Net Interest Income view to USD 84.0bln ex-CIB markets (prev. it was guiding for USD 81bln, market-dependent).
Click here and here for a recap of the main European updates.
Click here for the notable FX expiries for today’s NY cut.
FIXED INCOME
Bonds push recovery envelope further before waning around 2.40% in Bunds, just shy of 99.00 in Gilts and 114-00 for the 10 year T-note.
GGBs and PGBs underpinned by political and positive ratings outlook respectively while the EU receives a relatively warm welcome for 2028 and 2034 debt offerings.
Crude benchmarks are softer intraday but have lifted off APAC lows with catalysts light and the move is perhaps a factor of broader macro concern over the US debt limit.
Currently, WTI and Brent are lower by around USD 0.20/bbl but remain towards the top-end of circa. USD 1.50/bbl parameters.
Spot gold is little changed while base metals are slightly softer given the firmer USD, the yellow metal is being cushioned from USD-pressure somewhat by the broader risk tone.
EU plans more joint purchasing after the success of the common gas scheme, according to FT
UK PM Sunak reportedly opened the door into a sleaze probe on Home Secretary Suella Braverman and will discuss the speeding points row with the Prime Minister’s Independent Adviser on Ministers’ Interests Laurie Magnus, according to The Sun’s Political Editor Cole.
Greece’s ruling New Democracy Party held a significant lead against rivals in the early vote count and is set to win 145 of the 300 seats in parliament vs 71 seats for the leftist Syriza party, although a second round of voting is the most likely outcome with no clear majority, according to Politico and Reuters. There were also comments from PM Mitsotakis who said the election victory shows that New Democracy has the people’s approval to rule as a one-party government and that the mandate is a strong government, while he added that only strong governments can dare the changes needed. Click here for newsquawk analysis.
Since, Mitsotakis has called for a new vote potentially on June 25th.
Moody’s affirmed Portugal at Baa2; Outlook Revised to Positive from Stable.
German DIHK survey shows that the despite the economy showing resilience in a challenging environment thus far in 2023, growth will remain muted; maintains the forecast for economic stagnation this year.
DATA RECAP
UK Rightmove House Prices MM (May) 1.8% (Prev. 0.2%); YY (May) 1.5% (Prev. 1.7%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Kashkari (voter) said he is open to foregoing a June rate hike but would object to any kind of declaration that they are done lifting rates, according to WSJ.
US President Biden said on Saturday that he still believes they will be able to avoid a default and responded not at all when asked if he was worried about the debt talks, while a White House official said on Sunday that President Biden had a call with House Speaker McCarthy and that their staff will reconvene in the evening to discuss remaining issues. Furthermore, President Biden said his discussion with House Speaker McCarthy went well and that they will talk again on Monday, according to Reuters.
US House Speaker McCarthy said he had a productive call with US President Biden which included a discussion on possible solutions and said they will meet on Monday afternoon. McCarthy said he told President Biden that spending must be lowered and said that the Senate may not need the full week he expected to pass a debt ceiling agreement, while he also stated that the situation now is better than prior to the call and there is mutual respect in debt talks, according to Reuters.
US Rep. Graves who is among the Republican negotiators said spending less is a red line that precludes agreements on other issues and that there has been a lot of progress in understanding each side’s red lines and positions, according to Reuters.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the June deadline still holds and is a hard deadline for the debt limit, while she added there will be hard choices to make if the debt ceiling is not raised in which some bills will have to go unpaid and that the odds of reaching June 15th when more tax receipts are due are quite low before the government runs out of money. Yellen also noted that some Republican proposals to reduce IRS funds are greatly concerning, as well as stated that legal uncertainty and a tight time frame complicate the use of the 14th Amendment, according to NBC.
The latest Republican debt limit proposal was said to include steep non-defence cuts, work requirements, cuts to food and assistance, and other proposals which Democrats rejected. Proposals also included longer spending caps than recent bipartisan budget deals and Republicans rejected the administration’s proposals on prescription drug payment reform and cutting a dozen more tax loopholes, according to a source cited by Reuters on Sunday morning prior to the reports of the call between US President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy.
US companies are reportedly pulling forward their bond issuances amid debt ceiling concerns in which highly rated companies have issued USD 112bln of bonds so far this month compared to USD 46bln in May 2022, according to FT.
G7 Final Communique stated they will support Ukraine for as long as it takes and called on China to press Russia to stop its military aggression immediately, while it noted that a growing China that plays by international rules would be of global interest and that the G7 is not seeking a policy designed to harm China or hinder its economic progress and are not decoupling nor turning inwards. G7 also stated that there is no legal basis for China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea and they oppose China’s militarisation activities in the region, while the G7 nations established a new initiative to counter economic coercion dubbed the Coordination Platform on Economic Coercion.
US President Biden said the G7 is united in its approach to China and that they are not looking to de-couple from China but are looking to de-risk and diversify which means resisting economic coercion. Biden also stated they should have an open hotline with China and that everything changed after the spy balloon incident but thinks there will be another shift and expects relations with China to thaw soon which will allow more conversations. Furthermore, President Biden said they will not tell China what it can do but will put Taiwan in a position to defend itself and noted there is agreement among US allies that if China were to do something on Taiwan unilaterally, there would be a response, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Ministry said China expresses strong dissatisfaction regarding the G7 Final Communique and lodged solemn representations with summit host Japan, while China’s Vice Foreign Minister summoned the Japanese ambassador over actions at the G7, according to Reuters.
China’s Embassy in Britain urged for the G7 to disregard Cold War mentality and to stop interfering in other countries’ affairs and called on the British side to stop slandering and smearing China to avoid further damage to China-UK relations, according to Reuters.
German Chancellor Scholz said they want de-risking and to diversify but added that nobody has an interest to curb growth in China and that they will make sure big investments in China from the US, Japan, Britain, France, Italy and Germany will continue so that they have supply chains in China and export goods to China, according to ZDF.
GEOPOLITICS
Russia said its troops have taken control of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and Russian President Putin congratulated the Wagner group and the Russian army for the ‘liberation’ of the city, while Wagner group chief Prigozhin said they captured the entire territory of Bakhmut as promised and will be leaving the conflict zone on May 25th, according to TASS, Interfax and Reuters.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is confident Ukraine will get F-16 fighter jets from the West and said Kyiv’s peace formula has the potential to stop future aggressors. Zelensky also stated he is grateful for American support and the training mission which will give them a stronger battlefield position, while he appeared to have confirmed the loss of Bakhmut in which he noted that the city is destroyed and responded that he thought ‘no’ when asked if Bakhmut was still in Ukraine’s hands, according to Reuters.
Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister said Kyiv’s troops have partly encircled Bakhmut along the flanks and still control part of the city, while a top Ukrainian general said Ukraine controls an insignificant part of the city but added it is enough to enter the city when the situation changes and that Ukraine’s advances on flanks around Bakhmut are effectively nearing a tactical encirclement of Russian forces, according to Reuters.
US President Biden said Russians have suffered over 100k casualties in Bakhmut and that he has flat assurance from Ukrainian President Zelensky that Ukraine will not use F-16s to go into Russian geographic territory. President Biden also made it clear he is not prepared to trade certain items with China because of concern it would build weapons of mass destruction and he is not going to ease China sanctions but added that they are currently under negotiation on whether to lift sanctions on China’s Defence Minister, according to Reuters.
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister commented regarding Western plans to supply F-16s to Ukraine that the West is pursuing an escalatory path fraught with colossal risks for them.
Russia’s ambassador to the US said the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine would raise questions about NATO’s involvement in the conflict and said any Ukrainian strikes on Crimea are attacks on Russia and that Washington should be aware of Russia’s response, according to Reuters.
Explosions were reported in Odesa and Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid drone activity, while it was also reported that Russia launched an overnight air attack on Ukraine’s Dnipro, according to the Governor.
Taiwan President Tsai said they have shown the world the determination to defend themselves and that the world’s support for a democratic Taiwan is unprecedented, while she said they will maintain the status quo of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and said no one can change the status quo with the use of force. Furthermore, Tsai said the US arms aid for Taiwan addresses weapon delivery delays related to the pandemic and commented that they welcome visitors to Taiwan from Hong Kong, Macau and China.
US, Japan and South Korea’s leaders discussed how to take trilateral cooperation to new heights including in the face of North Korea’s illicit nuclear and missile threats, while US President Biden invited the Japanese and South Korean leaders for a trilateral meeting in Washington, according to Reuters citing the White House.
South Korean President Yoon announced that South Korea and Germany will sign a military information-sharing pact and will closely cooperate on North Korean denuclearisation, while Yoon said that South Korea will carefully review the list of non-lethal weapons requested by Ukrainian President Zelensky, according to Reuters.
Sudan’s army and paramilitary RSF agreed to a 7-day humanitarian truce and ceasefire on Saturday which takes effect after 48 hours, according to Reuters sources.
Russia’s Wagner group founder says their forces will be leaving Ukraine’s Bakhmut region from May 25th until June 1st.
“The Irish minister for foreign affairs Micheal Martin has said Ireland is open to changes that could see a shift away from the veto on some EU foreign policy and defence issues.”, according to RTE’s Connelly.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged within narrow parameters of circa. USD 400 as specifics remain somewhat light and the broader markets focus on a number of moving parts but primarily the US debt ceiling, with Biden and McCarthy to speak today at some point.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly positive but with price action rangebound amid cautiousness as the debt limit deadline draws closer and following last week’s more balanced comments from Fed Chair Powell.
ASX 200 was subdued amid weakness in financials although losses were cushioned amid the improving trade environment between Australia and its largest trading partner as evidenced by an 89% rise in coal exports to China.
Nikkei 225 was indecisive as the momentum from its recent rally to 33-year highs initially waned and with the mood also clouded by the surprise contraction in Machinery Orders, although the index later caught a second wind and broke above the 31,000 level.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded higher albeit with the mainland choppy after mixed commentary from the G7 and frictions related to China’s ban on Micron from key infrastructure, while the PBoC provided no surprises and kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged with the 1-year and 5-year LPRs kept at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (May) 3.65% vs. Exp. 3.65% (Prev. 3.65%); 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (May) 4.30% vs. Exp. 4.30% (Prev. 4.30%)
China’s cyberspace regulator said its review found that Micron Technology’s (MU) products have serious network security problems causing risks to China’s information infrastructure and announced that operators of critical information infrastructure in China should stop purchasing Micron Technology’s products, according to Reuters.
US Commerce Department said they firmly oppose China’s restrictions on Micron (MU) which have no basis in fact and that China’s action along with recent raids targeting other US firms is inconsistent with China’s assertions that it is opening its markets. It also stated that the US will engage directly with Chinese authorities to detail the US position and clarify China’s actions, while the US will also engage with key allies and partners to ensure close coordination to address distortions of the memory chip market caused by China’s actions.
Japan Business Lobby Keidanren Chief says this years inflation is facilitated by a weak JPY and energy cost increase, does not expect inflation from 2024 onward to be “that extreme”.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Mar) -3.9% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -4.5%); YY (Mar) -3.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 9.8%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.93 PTS OR 0.39% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 278/47 POINTS OR 0.90% /The Nikkei closed UP 227.60 OR 1.17% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.28 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.0293 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.0418 /Oil DOWN TO 71.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 75.72 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA//
China dominates the world in steel production
(zerohedge)
China Dominates The World’s Biggest Steel Producers
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 02:45 AM
Steel is a critical component of modern industry and economy, essential for the construction of buildings, automobiles, and many other appliances and infrastructure used in our daily lives.
Global steel production in 2022 reached 1,878 million tonnes, barely surpassing the pre-pandemic production of 1,875 million tonnes in 2019.
Country
2022 Production (in million tonnes)
Annual Production Change
Global Share
China
1013.0
-2.0%
53.9%
India
124.8
5.3%
6.6%
Japan
89.2
-7.9%
4.8%
United States
80.5
-6.5%
4.3%
Russia
71.5
-5.8%
3.8%
South Korea
65.9
-6.9%
3.5%
Germany
36.8
-8.8%
2.0%
Türkiye
35.1
-15.0%
1.9%
Brazil
34.0
-6.5%
1.8%
Iran
30.6
6.8%
1.6%
Italy
21.6
-13.0%
1.1%
Taiwan
20.7
-12.1%
1.1%
Vietnam
20.0
-15.0%
1.1%
Mexico
18.2
-1.9%
1.0%
Indonesia
15.6
8.3%
0.8%
Rest of World
201.0
-11.2%
10.7%
World Total
1878.5
-3.9%
100.0%
2022’s steel production marked a significant reduction compared to the post-pandemic rebound of 1,960 million tonnes in 2021, with a year-over-year decline of 4.2%–the largest drop since 2009, and prior to that, 1991.
This decline was spread across many of the world’s top steel producers, with only three of the top fifteen countries, India, Iran, and Indonesia, increasing their yearly production. Most of the other top steel-producing countries saw annual production declines of more than 5%, with Turkey, Italy, Taiwan, and Vietnam’s production all declining by double digits.
Even the world’s top steel-producing nation, China, experienced a modest 2% decline, which due to the country’s large production amounted to a decline of 19.8 million tonnes, more than many other nations produce in a year.
Despite India, the world’s second-largest steel producer, increasing its production by 5.3%, the country’s output still amounts to just over one-tenth of the steel produced by China.
China’s Meteoric Rise in Steel Production
Although China dominates the world’s steel production with more than a 54% share today, this hasn’t always been the case.
In 1967, the World Steel Association’s first recorded year of steel production figures, China only produced an estimated 14 million tonnes, making up barely 3% of global output. At that time, the U.S. and the USSR were competing as the world’s top steel producers at 115 and 102 million tonnes respectively, followed by Japan at 62 million tonnes.
Almost three decades later in 1996, China had successively overtaken Russia, the U.S., and Japan to become the top steel-producing nation with 101 million tonnes of steel produced that year.
The early 2000s marked a period of rapid growth for China, with consistent double-digit percentage increases in steel production each year.
The Recent Decline in China’s Steel Production
Since the early 2000s, China’s average annual growth in steel production has slowed to 3.4% over the last decade (2013-2022), a considerable decline compared to the previous decade’s (2003-2012) 15.2% average annual growth rate.
The past couple of years have seen China’s steel production decline, with 2021 and 2022 marking the first time the country’s production fell for two consecutive years in a row.
While it’s unlikely China will relinquish its position as the top steel-producing nation anytime soon, it remains to be seen whether this recent decline marks the beginning of a new trend or just a brief deviation from the country’s consistent production growth.
END
SOUTH KOREA/CHINA/USA
South Korea states that its chipmakers can fill the void after China bans Micron over security risk
(zerohedge)
South Korea Says Its Chipmakers Can Fill Void After China Bans Micron Over ‘Security Risk’
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 01:25 PM
Hours after China banned Micron Technology’s semiconductor products from critical infrastructure projects over a ‘major national-security risk,’ Seoul has stepped up and said South Korean companies Samsung and SK Hynix would fill the void as tensions between the US and China continue to escalate, reported Financial Times.
Even though the White House has urged South Korea to stop its chipmakers from supplying China if Beijing banned Micron from selling chips, policymakers in Seoul said Monday they would allow companies to make their own decision, independent of Washington’s request:
“Regarding what the US tells us to do or not to do, it is actually up to our companies. Both Samsung and SK Hynix, with global operations, will make a judgment on this,” South Korea’s vice-minister of trade Jang Young-jin told reporters.
We detailed Beijing’s ban on Micron Sunday night, as it’s a retaliation strike over a sweeping US ban on Western companies from selling advanced chip-making technology to China. In other words, it’s a tit-for-tat tech war.
However, Financial Times pointed out Washington might have leverage over Samsung and SK Hynix, which both are trying to expand business operations in the US and need “one-year waivers from the country to be extended so they can ship new equipment into their chip fabrication facilities in China …. these waivers must be renewed later this year, giving Washington potential leverage to use against the companies.”
An industry exec told FT:
“There are not many Chinese companies that get chips only from Micron. Even if we increase our supply to Chinese customers, how can they examine all these deals individually and judge that the increased volume comes from us, replacing Micron’s?”
FT noted:
“While South Korea is not a member of the G7, the group said it would work on creating a mechanism with a broad set of partners to deter and respond to Beijing’s use of economic sanctions to further its geopolitical goals.”
“Memory is a commodity, and supply chains will adjust in a couple [of] quarters,” said SemiAnalysis’ chief analyst Dylan Patel. He stated China could easily swap Micron’s memory chips for Samsung or SK Hynix ones.
Patel believes long-term damage to Micron will be ‘manageable.’
Meanwhile, shares of Micron slid nearly 5% early in the US cash session.
As previously mentioned, Gavekal Dragonomics estimates that 10% of Micron’s revenue is derived from China. The tech war between the US and China is ongoing, with no signs of de-escalation.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
GREECE
New leader in Greece: he is center right.
Greek Stocks And Bonds Jump As New Election Result Is ‘Credit Positive’
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Greece’s government bonds and stocks gained Monday as market-friendly Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis received a strong vote from the people compared to his opposition in Sunday’s national election.
Mitsotakis’ center-right New Democracy received 41% of the vote versus 20% for the leftist Syriza party of former premier Alexis Tsipras. However, Mitsotakis was short of achieving a majority in parliament, but political analysts expect he will secure a single-party government in the next elections in about a month, according to Bloomberg.
Analysts and investors view the election as one of the last roadblocks standing in the country’s path to regaining its investment-grade rating that was lost 13 years ago during a debt crisis and resulting austerity measures to clamp down on debt. Last year, Greece recorded the fastest debt-to-GDP decline than any other country on the continent.
Moody’s Investors Service said the election was a positive credit event:
“In particular, continued focus on improving the business environment and banking sector health, together with implementation of milestones and reforms under Greece’s National Recovery Plan will support economic growth,” Moody’s Senior Vice President Steffen Dyck said in an email statement to Bloomberg.
Dyck continued, “Combined with commitment to fiscal consolidation and rising primary surpluses this improves the prospects for a further significant reduction in Greece’s government debt burden.”
After years of austerity measures to tackle government debt, voters feel that Mitsotakis’s plan to rebuild Greece and reclaim its investment-grade status will put the country on a successful trajectory.
“New Democracy has the people’s approval to rule alone.
“I know how much work we have ahead of us, which requires a government that truly believes in reforms and the ability to implement them,” Mitsotakis said Sunday night.
As a result, the benchmark Athens Stock Exchange General Index jumped nearly 7% — the highest level in almost a decade.
Also, Greek bonds moved higher, dropping to about 3.91% on the yield for the 10-year debt.
“The results were well beyond market expectations, with New Democracy being the clear winner,” said Alevizos Alevizakos, managing director of Axia Ventures Athens.
Eurobank Equities strategist said, “We expect a sharp re-pricing of Greek assets in the coming weeks, as investors position for the compelling Greek thesis in the next few years.”
Greeks want an economic miracle after austerity measures that led to slow economic growth. If Mitsotakis wins the second election, planned for June or July, this will allow his party to consolidate victory and make it easier to govern with an absolute majority.
END
EUROPE/USA/META (FACEBOOK)
Huge fine: Facebook slapped with 1.3 billion dollar fine (1.2 billion euros) over data transfers
(zerohedge)
Meta Slapped With Record $1.3 Billion Fine Over EU Data Transfers To US
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 08:30 AM
Privacy authorities from the European Union have slapped a record-breaking fine of 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) on Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook, for sending user data to the US. Authorities have also given a deadline by which Meta must cease all personal data transfers across the Atlantic.
The Irish Data Protection Commission revealed that Meta breached the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) when it transferred the personal data of Europeans to the US without sufficiently protecting them from “surveillance programmes” operated by the US government.
The Irish privacy watchdog pointed out concerns about NSA spy programs:
They said that Meta’s data transfers didn’t address “the risks to the fundamental rights and freedoms” of Facebook’s European users, resulting in the 1.2 billion euro fine. This amount eclipsed the 746 million euro fine by the EU against Amazon over privacy breaches.
The Irish privacy watchdog said Meta must also “suspend any future transfer of personal data to the US” and has about six months to halt “the unlawful processing, including storage, in the US” of European user data.
“The ban on data transfers was widely expected and once prompted the US firm to threaten a total withdrawal from the EU,” Bloomberg said.
There was one attempt to create a mechanism to transfer personal data from the EU to the US legally, but that was struck down several years ago by a European court over fears US spy agencies would have access to the data.
The EU’s data protection regulation, GDPR, came into effect in 2018 and has governed how tech companies handle customer data. Politico noted the largest GDPR privacy law fines over the past five years included some of the biggest tech companies:
Meta responded to Monday’s decision, calling the fine “unjustified and unnecessary.” The social media giant said it would appeal the ruling and highlighted no immediate disruption to EU Facebook users.
Nick Clegg, Meta’s president of global affairs, stated:
“Without the ability to transfer data across borders, the internet risks being carved up into national and regional silos, restricting the global economy and leaving citizens in different countries unable to access many of the shared services we have come to rely on.”
Today’s action by the EU is the largest-ever fine for a company breaching GDPR.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE//RUSSIA//USA
Wagner group declares the full capture of Bakhmut. Odessa is now cut off from obtaining weapons from Romania
A big loss for the West.
(zerohedge)
Wagner Declares Full Capture Of Bakhmut After 224 Days Of Fighting
SATURDAY, MAY 20, 2023 – 11:57 AM
Head of the Russian private military group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has announced Saturday that after months of grinding warfare and heavy casualties, Russia has now taken full control of the strategic city of Bakhmut.
Prigozhin is announcing final victory and that Bakhmut has finally fallen. “The operation to capture Bakhmut lasted 224 days” he said in a video posted to Wagner’s Telegram channel. “Today at noon, Bakhmut was fully captured,” he declared.Wagner celebrating victory, via Telegram
Russian state media is also declaring “The key Donbass city of Artyomovsk, known as Bakhmut in Ukraine, has been fully liberated by the Russian forces…”.
Prigozhin described that full capture of the city finally came when an area containing high-rise buildings where the final Ukrainian defensive holdout had a presence was conquered.
Western media reports have said they can’t verify the claims, but headlines in Reuters and the Associated Press are widely reporting the Wagner chief’s declaration of victory:
In a video posted on Telegram, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin said the city came under complete Russian control at about midday Saturday. He spoke flanked by about half a dozen fighters, with ruined buildings in the background and explosions heard in the distance.
But the mainstream media reports are also highlighting Ukraine’s rejection of claims that the city has finally fallen. Yet, as the AP underscores, Ukrainian officials have lately admitted the situation was already dire for their forces:
However, after the video appeared, Ukrainian deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar said heavy fighting was continuing.
“The situation is critical,” she said. “As of now, our defenders, control certain industrial and infrastructure facilities in this area.”
Serhiy Cherevatyi, spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern command, told The Associated Press that Prigozhin’s claim “is not true. Our units are fighting in Bakhmut.”
Starting weeks ago the Russian side said it held at least 90-95% of the city, and that gains were being made a couple hundred meters at a time. Prigozhin said Saturday that by the end of the month Wagner will hand over its captured positions to regular Russian forces.
Interestingly, The New York Times issued the following story at the very moment that Wagner declared victory – a headline that looks to have immediately become obsolete:
Western media has been hyping Ukrainian “gains” of late in Bakhmut, but that doesn’t look to have ultimately been the case. Likely as verification comes of Russia’s control of the key city in Donetsk, there will be a lot of downplaying of the significance by US and Western officials.
It could also make Zelensky’s G7 trip in Japan more awkward. He’s expected to meet with President Biden and other G7 leaders on Saturday. Top on the agenda for Zelensky will be requests to expedite fighter jets to Kiev, and it looks like the Western allies are slowly moving in that direction. But the elephant in the room will be growing doubts even among the most ardent of Kiev’s supporters of whether Ukraine can in fact ‘win’… no matter how much military equipment they are given by Western backers.
end
Biden in damage control on losing Bakhmut
(Jim Hoft/Robert H)
Joe Biden in Damage Control – Attempts to Paint Losing Bakhmut, Ukraine as a Loss for Russia at G7 Meetings | The Gateway Pundit | by Jim Hoft
Robert Hryniak
to
No amount of spin changes reality Ukraine will lose this fight. And with this loss the laundry of Ukraine will cease for dollars. What then? There is much more to this than is being reported. And yes, in the south Odessa is cut off from further weapons supply from Romania. So no easy route for the coalition of Romanians and US troops to rush in. Things will escalate shortly.
Last Saturday the Washington Post published an exposé of classified American intelligence documents showing that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, working behind the back of the Biden White House, pushed hard earlier this year for an expanded series of missile attacks inside Russia. The documents were part of a large cache of classified materials posted online by an Air Force enlisted man now in custody. A senior official of the Biden administration, asked by the Post for comment on the newly revealed intelligence, said that Zelensky has never violated his pledge never to use American weapons to strike inside Russia. In the view of the White House, Zelensky can do no wrong.
Zelensky’s desire to take the war to Russia may not be clear to the president and senior foreign policy aides in the White House, but it is to those in the American intelligence community who have found it difficult to get their intelligence and their assessments a hearing in the Oval Office. Meanwhile, the slaughter in the city of Bakhmut continues. It is similar in idiocy, if not in numbers, to the slaughter in Verdun and the Somme during World War I. The men in charge of today’s war—in Moscow, Kiev, and Washington—have shown no interest even in temporary ceasefire talks that could serve as a prelude to something permanent. The talk now is only about the possibilities of a late spring or summer offensive by either party.
But something else is cooking, as some in the American intelligence community know and have reported in secret, at the instigation of government officials at various levels in Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Estonia, Czechoslovakia, and Latvia. These countries are all allies of Ukraine and declared enemies of Vladimir Putin.
This group is led by Poland, whose leadership no longer fears the Russian army because its performance in Ukraine has left the glow of its success at Stalingrad during the Second World War in tatters. It has been quietly urging Zelensky to find a way to end the war—even by resigning himself, if necessary—and to allow the process of rebuilding his nation to get under way. Zelensky is not budging, according to intercepts and other data known inside the Central Intelligence Agency, but he is beginning to lose the private support of his neighbors.
One of the driving forces for the quiet European talks with Zelensky has been the more than five million Ukrainians fleeing from the war who have crossed the country’s borders and have registered with its neighbors under an EU agreement for temporary protection that includes residency rights, access to the labor market, housing, social welfare assistance, and medical care. An assessment published by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees reports that the estimate excludes roughly 3 million Ukrainian refugees who escaped from the war zone without a visa into any of the 27 European nations that have abolished border control between each other under the Schengen agreement. Ukraine, though not in the EU, now enjoys all the benefits of the Schengen pact. A few nations, exhausted by the 15-month war, have reintroduced some forms of border control, but the regional refugee crisis will not be resolved until there is a formal peace agreement.
The UNHRC reports that free travel from Ukraine into the Baltic states and EU states in Western Europe “makes it particularly difficult to determine exactly how many Ukrainians have reached the EU in the last few months, and where they are now.” The report says the “vast majority” of the Ukrainian refugees are women and children, and one third of them are under the age of eighteen. Seventy-three per cent of the refugees of working age are women, many with children.
A February analysis of the European refugee issue by the Council on Foreign Relations found that “tens of billions of dollars” in humanitarian aid were poured into Ukraine’s neighbors during the war’s first year.
“As the conflict enters its second year with no end in sight,” the report says, “experts worry that host countries are growing fatigued.”
Weeks ago I learned that the American intelligence community was aware that some officials in Western Europe and the Baltic states want the war between Ukraine and Russia to end. These officials have concluded that it is time for Zelensky to “come around” and seek a settlement. A knowledgeable American official told me that some in the leadership in Hungary and Poland were among those working together to get Ukraine involved in serious talks with Moscow. “Hungary is a big player in this and so are Poland and Germany, and they are working to get Zelensky to come around,” the American official said. The European leaders have made it clear that “Zelensky can keep what he’s got”—a villa in Italy and interests in offshore bank accounts—“if he works up a peace deal even if he’s got to be paid off, if it’s the only way to get a deal.”
So far, the official said, Zelensky has rejected such advice and ignored offers of large sums of money to ease his retreat to an estate he owns in Italy. There is no support in the Biden Administration for any settlement that involves Zelensky’s departure, and the leadership in France and England “are too beholden” to Biden to contemplate such a scenario. There is a reality that some elements in the American intelligence community can’t ignore, the official said, even if the White House is ignoring it: “Ukraine is running out of money and it is known that the next four or months are critical. And Eastern Europeans are talking about a deal.” The issue for them, the official told me, “is how to get the United States to stop supporting Zelensky,” The White House support goes beyond the needs of the war: “We are paying all of the retirement funds—the 401k’s—for Ukraine.”
And Zelensky wants more, the official said.
“Zelensky is telling us that if you want to win the war you’ve got to give me more money and more stuff. He tells us, ‘I’ve got to pay off the generals.’ He’s telling us”—if he is forced out of office—“he’s going to the highest bidder. He’d rather go to Italy than stay and possibly get killed by his own people.”
“All of this talk is being reported and is now flying around inside the American intelligence community, but, as usual,” the official said, “it’s not clear to the intelligence community what the president and his foreign policy aides in the White House know of the reality” of the European discussion about finding a way to end the war.
“We are still training Ukrainians how to fly our F-16s that will be shot down by Russia as soon as they get into the war zone. The mainstream press is dedicated to Biden and the war and Biden is still talking about the Great Satan in Moscow while the Russian economy is doing great. Putin can stay where he is”—in power—“despite his failure to wipe Ukraine off the map as an independent state. And he thought he would win the war with just one airborne division”—a sardonic reference to Russia’s failed effort in the first days of the war to seize a vital airport by parachuting in an attack force.
“Europe’s problem,” the official said, in terms of getting a quick settlement to the war, “is that the White House wants Zelensky to survive while there are others”—in Russia and in some European capitals—“who say Zelensky has got to go, no matter what,”
It’s not clear that this understanding has gotten to the Oval Office. I have been told that some of the better intelligence about the war does not reach the president, through no fault of those who prepare the often contrary assessments. Biden is said to rely on briefings and other materials prepared by Avril Haines, director of National Intelligence, since the Biden Administration came into office. She has spent much of her career working for Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, whose ties to Biden and agreement with him on matters pertaining to Russia and China go back decades.
The one saving grace for some in the community, I have been told, has been CIA Director William Burns.
Burns was ambassador to Russia and deputy secretary of State and is seen as someone “who has come around” in opposition to some of the White House’s foreign policy follies. “He doesn’t want to be a rat on a sinking ship,” the official told me.
On the other hand, I have been told, it’s not clear to those in the CIA who prepare the President’s Daily Brief that Joe Biden is a regular reader of their intelligence summary. The document is usually three pages. Decades ago I was told—by someone who begged me not to write about it at the time—that Ronald Reagan rarely read the PDB until Colin Powell, then in the White House, began reading it to a video recorder. The tape would then be played for the president. It’s unclear who, if anyone, might take the initiative as Biden’s Colin Powell.
Looks like Turkey has a foreign exchange problem as dollars are leaving banks
(zerohedge)
Turkish Lira Flash Crashes To Record Low On Goldman’s Dire Central Bank Outlook
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 12:45 PM
The Turkish Lira briefly tumbled as much as 4.1% to breach past the 20 per US dollar mark for the first time ever amid thin liquidity early Monday. At that point the central bank intervened, and the currency quickly pared losses and was last trading at 19.8339 per dollar, which excluding the brief flash-crash, is the lowest level on record for the distressed currency.
The ongoing plunge in the Lira comes days ahead of the presidential runoff round on Sunday, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to secure more than 50% of the ballots in the first round of voting on May 14, although the final outcome appears to be assured after earlier today Turkey’s Sinan Ogan endorsed Erdogan in the runoff round, effectively guaranteeing him a victory. That said, one- week implied volatility on USD/TRY pair jumps to 30% versus 17.2% on Friday.
And if it’s not the election outcome, what caused the sudden collapse in the lira? The reason, as we pointed out on Friday, was a dire note by Goldman FX strategist, Clemens Grafe, in which among other things, he found that the central bank’s “net foreign assets fell by US$3.2bn to negative US$14.8bn”, warned that “given the slowdown in the rise of TRY deposits and this week’s decline, we think TRY liquidity in the system is becoming more limited” and, most ominously, predicted that “pressure on the reserves has shifted from the current to the capital account despite the measures in place to limit capital outflows. “
Below we excerpt from the Goldman note which, if accurate, could lead to a rapid and dramatic reprising of the lira far lower from its current, manipulated, and artificially-lofty level:
As of 17 May, the TCMB’s foreign assets declined sharply by US$6.7bn to US$104.4bn compared with a week ago, against a US$3.5bn fall in foreign liabilities to US$119.2bn (US$2.0bn fall in liabilities to nonresidents and US$1.5bn to banks). Hence, net foreign assets fell by US$3.2bn to negative US$14.8bn.
TCMB’s swaps with banks declined only slightly, by US$0.5bn compared with a week ago, to US$36.6bn as of 17 May, whereas FX deposits in the overall banking system fell much more, by US$4.0bn (as of 15 May) to US$213.9bn (TRY deposits also declined by TRY9.3bn to TRY6,197.0bn).
The decline in both TRY and FX deposits signals that funds are leaving the system amid heightened uncertainty before a presidential election runoff on Sunday, 28 May. Given this, we think stopping leakage from the system and keeping the Lira stable are the TCMB’s primary concern at the moment, also reflected in the currently high premiums placed on both FX and TRY cash in Turkey.
Using traditional measure for the TCMB’s usable reserves (subtracting gold, bilateral swaps with other central banks and SDR allocation from total reserves) points to only US$29.4bn FX liquidity at the TCMB. This number is, however, from last week given that the TCMB publishes its reserve composition with a week lag. And the decline in foreign assets this week means that it is currently even lower. However, we think that this way of measuring the TCMB’s FX assets has become somewhat outdated for two main reasons.
First, the central bank’s recent interventions in the market to support the Lira via selling a significant portion of its gold reserves amid high household demand means that gold is becoming more of a liquid asset and arguably shouldn’t be fully subtracted.
Second, swaps with other central banks have been used in bilateral trade between Turkey and the source countries. This means that their contribution to reserves has already declined since the swap lines were created and hence they should not be taken out in full (however, we do not know what percentage of them have been used for trade).
While these factors make the calculation of the TCMB’s FX liquidity much more complex, they also mean that the Bank’s liquid assets are likely higher than the implied US$29.4bn by our traditional measure.
This week brings the total decline in the TCMB’s foreign assets in May to US$10bn, more than half of which was driven by a fall in the TCMB’s liabilities (US$5.8bn), to nonresidents (US$1.3bn) and to banks (US$4.4bn). We think some of the decline in the TCMB’s liabilities to banks is explained by a US$2.7bn fall in overall FX deposits in the system over the same period leading to a lower level of required FX reserves to be held at the central bank. The rest of the fall in banks’ deposits at the TCMB could reflect a shift into swaps, which rose by US$1.8bn despite the fall in FX deposits over the same period. However, the TCMB’s liabilities to the banking sector have been on a downward trend since mid-April falling by US$7.8bn, and this is only partially explained by developments in overall FX deposits in the system.
This, in our view, could be signaling that banks are under FX liquidity pressures after bringing in most of their FX assets from abroad and funding half of the current account deficit last year, and are now in need of withdrawing FX from the central bank. Turkish banks’ liquidity position has been declining since September last year and their net FX deposit position has turned negative since November. We think this is a signal that pressure on the reserves has shifted from the current to the capital account despite the measures in place to limit capital outflows.
Compared with a week ago, the TCMB increased its net traditional funding by TRY32.5bn to TRY487.2bn, as of 18 May. However, given the slowdown in the rise of TRY deposits and this week’s decline, we think TRY liquidity in the system is becoming more limited.
This is reflected in increasingly restricted access to credit for both households and most corporates. Despite limited liquidity in the system, however, the TRY 13-week loan growth rate continues to increase, this week by 2.5pp to 109.3% (annualized.) as of 15 May.
In our view, the discrepancy between limited liquidity and a rising loan growth rate is explained by higher funding to some select sectors at cheap rates by the TCMB itself and that access to credit is still difficult for most in Turkey.
Goldman’s report effectively recaps what happened last week, when Turkey’s gross foreign exchange reserves posted a record fall in the week before Sunday’s inconclusive elections, as the central bank expanded efforts to support the lira.
The reserves dropped by $7.6 billion in the week to May 12 to $60.8 billion, central bank data showed — the biggest weekly fall in the figures going back to 2000. Net reserves as defined by the IMF, including swaps, also fell to $2.3 billion, the lowest in over two decades.
The data mark an acceleration in attempts to defend the currency (which in turn is driven by an accelerating rush by the population to converted increasingly worthless lira into hard currency), seen by citizens as a key barometer of the economy’s health and a major point of contention in the election.
It’s not just FX: Turkey’s five-year credit default swaps climbed 16bps on Thursday, extending this week’s advance to 185bps, climbing to the highest level since Oct. 28, and following last week’s biggest 3-day jump in 2 years. The move in CDS suggests a “challenging picture” for the lira, Istanbul-based Unlu&Co. wrote in its daily report. The rising trend in USD-TRY is “likely to continue in the short-term,” it said.
Ukraine Expands Weapons Training For Children As Bakhmut Reportedly Falls
SUNDAY, MAY 21, 2023 – 11:00 AM
Only two months ago the mainstream media widely circulated a video which they said showcased “shocking footage” of Russian school children training with military weapons in programs designed to prepare them for the military. The programs were widely criticized as “indoctrination.”
Of course, Ukraine has also been involved in weapons training for children and these efforts have only increased in recent months as the city of Bakhmut, an epicenter of the fighting for many months, has reportedly fallen to Russia’s Wagner Group. CNBC has briefly reported on the “Defense of Ukraine” program at the military-patriotic center for schoolchildren in Lviv. The center was opened this month with plans to open dozens of other training facilities for children across the country in the near future.
The western city of Lviv has been a primary relocation point for children escaping the war in the east, so it’s not surprising that the Ukrainian government would seek young recruits for the war effort there.
The issue is not so much the training as it is the double standard – Russia institutes weapons training classes for kids and it’s insidious indoctrination. Ukraine does it and it’s “patriotic.”
The training of children for war is an often frowned upon practice, if only because of the dark imagery of Nazi Youth taken from their parents and armed to the teeth during WWII. But it is also generally a signal of weakening military capacity – Wars are not won with billions of dollars in equipment, they are won with soldiers. And it appears Ukraine might be short on manpower.
The loss of Bakhmut, which seems to be a reality according to reports so far, was preceded by weeks of media claims that Ukrainian troops were gaining “significant ground” amid the launch of a counter-offensive which has supposedly already started. So far there is little evidence of this offensive, except attempts to reinforce Bakhmut which have apparently failed.
Keep in mind that the battle was primarily fought by a mercenary army, not official Russian forces. The Wagner Group has been described within western circles as an “army of convicts” ran by a “restaurateur.” This would mean NATO trained soldiers supported by veteran mercenaries from around the world were just defeated by the lowest of the low according to the media’s own narrative.
The strategy might have been much smarter than the public in Europe and the US has been led to believe. While Bakhmut is consistently described as a symbolic victory instead of a strategic one, it would seem that the reports of Wagner running low on ammo and threatening to walk away from the front lines in frustration were fabricated. Western outlets joyously ate this information up and spread it as if it were fact, which may have helped to lure even more Ukrainian forces to Bakhmut just to be leveled along with the city.
Was it really a waste of manpower and ordnance? Or did the Russians use mercs to deplete Ukraine’s supply of soldiers by bogging them down in a tactically precarious region? We will find out if and when the much publicized Ukraine counter-offensive materializes. In the meantime, Kiev is pursuing teen recruits out of Lviv. As NATO sends billions of dollars in funding and new arms into Ukraine, one has to wonder if there will be enough soldiers waiting to pick up those weapons when they arrive?
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/
GLOBAL ISSUES
end
Vaccine issues/COVID 19 issues
WHO Warns Of ‘Unusual’ Surge in Severe Myocarditis in Babies
On Tuesday, the WHO issued an alert that there had been a rise in “severe myocarditis” in newborns and infants between June 2022 and March 2023 in Wales and England.
It said that this was associated with the enterovirus infection, which rarely affects the heart.
A UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) spokesperson confirmed to The Epoch Times that 10 babies have been diagnosed in Wales and five have been diagnosed in England.
The WHO said that “although enterovirus infections are common in neonates and young infants, the reported increase in myocarditis with severe outcomes in neonates and infants associated with enterovirus infection is unusual.”
It said that in the same hospital (covering the South Wales region) over the previous six years, “only one other similar case has been identified.”
WHO assessed the public health risk as low, but added that in certain situations, it “may be advisable to close child-care facilities and schools to reduce the intensity of transmission.”
However, the WHO took down the alert on Wednesday. The Epoch Times understands that this could be because some of the numbers were not correct.
The WHO did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.
Investigation
Authorities in England and Wales are currently investigating the rise in cases.
Dr. Shamez Ladhani, Consultant Paediatrician at UKHSA, told The Epoch Times by email that “given a higher than average number of cases in Wales in the autumn/winter months in very young babies, UKHSA is investigating the situation in England to see if any similar cases have been observed here and whether there are any factors driving the increase in cases.”
The UKHSA did not respond to questions about ruling out any links to the effects of the COVID-19 vaccine.
Public Health Wales at the start of May announced that it was investigating a cluster of severe enterovirus infections with myocarditis occurring in very young babies from the South Wales region.
The cases occurred from June 2022 with a peak in November 2022 involving babies under 28 days old.
Ten babies have developed myocarditis within this cluster. One baby remains in hospital, eight are being managed as outpatients, and one baby has died.
‘Massive Question’
Consultant pathologist and HART member Dr. Clare Craig told The Epoch Times that there’s “a massive question about whether or not these babies or the mums are vaccinated.”
HART is an organisation that was set up to share concerns about policy and guidance recommendations relating to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Coxsackievirus is a member of a family of viruses called enteroviruses and one of the most common causes of viral myocarditis,” she said.
“And we saw like with other viruses, the diagnosis of Coxsackievirus reduced massively in 2020 when SARS-COV 2 arrived.
She added that the total number of people getting myocarditis after 2020 stayed the same suggesting “SARS-COV 2 filled the niche” that Coxsackievirus had left behind.
“But then the vaccine comes along and from 2021 the incidence rate of myocarditis went sky high,” she added.
“The public health authorities claim that they want to maintain trust and yet they won’t explore these avenues to rule out concerns,” she added.
If Your Toddler Isn’t Talking Yet, COVID Authoritarians Might Be To Blame
SATURDAY, MAY 20, 2023 – 08:45 AM
“If Your Toddler Isn’t Talking Yet, the Pandemic Might Be to Blame,” the title of a Wall Street Journal article reads.
Sarah Toy, a reporter for the publication’s health and medicine bureau, wrote an increasing number of “babies and toddlers are being diagnosed with speech and language delays” due to academic setbacks during the virus pandemic when the economy was forced to shut down.
Toy cited new data from health analytics company Truveta that analyzed 2.5 million children under the age of 5. There was a significant increase in diagnoses of first-time speech delays. She said on average, between 2018-19 and 2021-22, these delays soared by 1.6 times, adding there was a large surge in delays among 1-year-olds.
She spoke with Dr. Caroline Martinez, an assistant clinical professor of behavioral pediatrics with Mount Sinai Health System in New York City, and various speech therapists, who blamed social isolation combined with stress among parents as the top contributors to the delays. Here’s an excerpt of what Toy wrote:
“Social isolation coupled with pandemic-related stress among parents likely contributed to the delays, Martinez and speech therapists said. Families were less likely to start therapy or get their children evaluated during the pandemic, they said, creating a backlog of patients longer than ever, they said.”
The WSJ journo cited a survey from April that showed 80% of 1,000 members of the American Speech-Language-Hearing Association working with children under the age of 5 found an increasing number of delayed language or diagnosed language disorder cases compared with pre-pandemic trends. Many of these speech pathologists also said there had been an increase in children with social-communication difficulties.
While the data is insightful, we’re sorry to inform Toy the “pandemic” isn’t to blame for why a generation of children has developed language disorders. Why the journo left out the politicians, public health bureaucrats, and teachers’ unions who ferociously demanded government lockdowns and closure of schools is a significant concern.
As we’ve observed, Covid authoritarians, such as Anthony Fauci, are becoming deniers of the truth and the largest source of misinformation about what really happened several years ago as they desperately try to rewrite history due to the botched response that should’ve never included the closure of the economy and shuttering of schools.
There’s a scene in videographer Matt Orfalea’s arresting new “Nobody is Safe!” compilation in which Jeff Van Gundy — one of the sharpest basketball announcers alive, and one of my favorites to watch — leans back and says, “I don’t even understand what means, ‘I’m doing my own research.’”
The whole quote, from a preseason Heat-Rockets game Van Gundy called in October of 2021:
What does that look like, you doing your own research? Are you doing studies yourself? Are you in a lab on a nightly basis? What are you doing? I don’t understand what that means, ‘I’m doing my own research.’
How about this: we’ve got really smart people… who’ve already done the research.
The subtext of Van Gundy’s quote was one of the many stages of the Covid-19 messaging campaign, a collective roar against “asking questions” or “doing your own research.” Just a few weeks earlier, Brian Stelter on CNN hosted a panel about “four little words that are hurting America’s pandemic response.” He showed evil always-villain Sean Hannity repeatedly uttering the “seemingly innocent” phrase, “Do your own research.” He then rolled tape of comic Trevor Noah saying, “Nobody who’s saying that is getting in a lab and doing tests.”
In hindsight, who knows, that might have been where Van Gundy got the idea. Make no mistake, however, there was and is an active campaign against people who do their “own research.” This was a mostly unexplored theme in the #TwitterFiles material, as we did repeatedly see anti-disinformation “experts” identifying people who didn’t quickly accept official messaging without question as already, in a way, spreaders of mis- or disinformation.
We touched on this a little in a report about the Stanford Virality Project, which advised that “just asking questions” was a tactic “commonly used by spreaders of misinformation.” We also saw it in an Aspen Institute report on misinformation, which recommended “strikes” against people they called “savvy spreaders,” i.e. those who used phrases like “just asking questions,” evading censors by “couching” misinformation as mere “uncertainty”:
I got the shot and never advised people not to get vaccinated. I couldn’t imagine an area where I was less qualified to give advice. But this is the point: the same people Orf shows picking up torches and railing with bloodcurdling certainty against “the unvaccinated” are nearly all people who knew as little as me, and whose beliefs about the vaccine were at best secondhand.
You’re disgusted at those who “do their own research”? What do you think journalism is? None of us do lab experiments. The job is always an imperfect effort to figure out which sources are most trustworthy, and because even the most credentialed often screw up, we always need to leave room for consensus proving wrong.
In this case one didn’t need a microbiology degree to recognize something about Covid-19 messaging was off. From flip-flops about masks (an “evolving situation,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said) to unwillingness to be frank in discussing natural immunity or risks to children, even casual news-readers saw confusion in the ranks of senior officials. Later, a series of reversals on key questions — first about whether the vaccine prevented contraction, then about whether it prevented transmission — left even people who wantedto follow official advice unsure of what to do.
I hope Matt’s video survives as a warning. There is still a lot of investigation to be done, in particular about the origins of the pandemic — certain segments of the national audience may still be in for a shock or two there — but as Matt shows, we already see a cautionary tale about faulty information being used to gin up real hatred.
Outside experts on the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee unanimously said data from two trials run by Pfizer were sufficient to support the vaccine being effective at preventing RSV disease in infants. They also voted 10–4 in the affirmative when asked if the data from the trials were sufficient to demonstrate the safety of the vaccine.
The votes set up FDA clearance for what would be the first maternal vaccine for the respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.
Pfizer’s vaccine, a recombinant protein subunit shot, targets the RSV A and RSV B subgroups in a 120 microgram dose that would be given to pregnant women in the second or third trimester. The goal would be to relay antibodies against RSV to fetuses, conferring protection that is supposed to last through the first year of life.
The vaccine was 81.8 percent efficacious through 90 days after birth against severe lower respiratory tract illness due to RSV. The efficacy dropped to 69.4 percent after another 90 days.
For any RSV-positive medically attended lower respiratory tract illness, the vaccine started at 57.1 percent efficacy and dropped to 51.3 percent over the same timeframe, according to data from a phase 3 trial that included about 3,500 vaccinated pregnant women.
The efficacy for medically attended lower respiratory tract illness from any cause was just 2.5 percent at 180 days and 5.1 percent at 360 days.
FDA staffers said in a briefing document that the trial showed “successful vaccine efficacy,” and the advisers seconded that view with their unanimous vote.
But multiple experts expressed concerns about the risk of the vaccine causing premature births, a risk found in a similar product made by GlaxoSmithKline that prompted the company to halt testing in 2022.
In Pfizer’s trial, there were more premature deliveries in the vaccinated arm than the placebo arm—5.7 percent in the former versus 4.7 percent in the latter.
“That is hanging over this program,” Dr. Paul Offit, one of the FDA’s advisers, said during Thursday’s meeting.
The FDA declined to comment on the issue during the meeting, though staffers wrote in a brief that there was “potential uncertainty” regarding premature births.
Pfizer executives said Pfizer’s vaccine has important differences from the GlaxoSmithKline one, including the way they’re stabilized. They also acknowledged that there was “an overall significant difference in preterm births” between the arms but said the difference was not statistically significant and was driven primarily by data from sites in South Africa.
“I think we need to place all of this in context. As you’ve already heard, the overall results show no statistically significant difference. The results are driven by the upper- and middle-income countries with the high-income countries not showing this difference,” Dr. William Gruber, Pfizer’s senior vice president for vaccine clinical research and panelists, told panelists. “And as you’ve heard from us, as well as the FDA, there’s the real opportunity, then, to look at this during the period of pharmacovigilance, when we have larger numbers of women being vaccinated, to determine whether or not there is, in fact, any sort of a signal.”
“But the evidence to this point provides no real support when we take the totality of it based on the Pfizer vaccine for an increased risk of prematurity, and we can investigate that, again, post-approval,” he added later.
The quote drew criticism from Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), a doctor who criticizeda similar comment made about Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine.
“Most drugs carry side effects. When considering maternal vaccinations, significant complications such as severe premature births or even pre-term and neonatal deaths may be present. The notion of vaccinating populations to determine whether or not there will be any side effects leads to a mistrust in the FDA, public health, and the medical community,” Murphy told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.
RSV peaks in the United States during the winter, with very low levels during the summer and fall. It primarily affects children under the age of 1, though it also impacts older children. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates 100 to 300 children die each year from RSV, though a death certificate review for the 12 years ending in 2016 identified just 478 in that population, including 315 younger than age 1.
Approximately 68 percent of infants are infected before they turn 1, panel members heard, and U.S. officials say the vaccine would help curb a major reason for hospitalization.
The vaccine and others like it are “designed to overcome the shortcomings of previous efforts … [and] represent structural immunology and molecular engineering over empiric vaccinology against a respiratory virus that exacts its heaviest disease burden in the youngest and older adults,” Dr. David Kaslow, the director of the FDA’s Office of Vaccines Research and Review, told the panel.
The Pfizer vaccine efficacy for hospitalizations due to RSV was 67.7 percent at 90 days but dropped to just 33.3 percent at 360 days, according to the trial data.
Only one RSV vaccine is currently available in the United States. It is only for adults aged 60 and older.
Votes
Many panelists said they were convinced by the high efficacy data, despite concerns about the premature births.
“If the vaccine actually lives up to the data that we’ve seen today, I can guarantee that many infants and their parents will breathe easier in the coming years,” Dr. Jay Portnoy, one of the members, said.
Some said there’s a need for a vaccine.
“If there’s anything real there, we want to make sure we are aware of this. But this really does address a real, real strong need; there isn’t another option here for prevention,” Adam Berger, one of the panelists, said. “And it really could save a lot of lives. So I do think a lot of this is going to lie on the postmarketing requirements.”
The FDA lists required studies for drug and vaccine manufacturers to carry out in letters of authorization and approval.
Others echoed Pfizer in asserting that observational data, or looking at outcomes in women who receive the vaccine after it is cleared, would clear up whether premature birth is a side effect.
“Observational studies, as we go forward will fairly quickly give us an answer. If there is a problem there,” Dr. Arnold Monto, another member, said. “We learned how to bite the bullet and get things out during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine approvals.”
Dr. Henry Bernstein, another member, said he had reservations due to not wanting another situation like the quick removal of a rotavirus vaccine following a spike in cases of intussusception, a life-threatening condition. Intussusception following vaccination “was not statistically significant until it was more widely used,” he said.
While all members said the efficacy data support licensure, Offit, Bernstein, Holly Janes, and Dr. Hana El Sahly said the safety data were not sufficient.
“If you’re in any sense risking premature births with this vaccine, I think there’ll be a big price to pay. And so I just don’t feel we have enough data to be reassuring,” Offit said.
“There was too much uncertainty,” Janes added. “And I’m uncomfortable with the notion of kicking the can down the road … toward post-marketing surveillance studies. I think it’s a bit different to rely on surveillance studies to sort of confirm what appears to be a safe product whereas here, I think the signals are such that the post-marketing surveillance data would be asked to refute what is sort of a potential hypothesis here, and I think that’s a higher bar.”
end
“Show Me Where I Got My Science Wrong!”: Pres Hopeful RFK Jr. Debates Krystal Ball Over Vaccines
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 03:25 PM
2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has lots of opinions that differ with both the Democratic party, which he is a member of, and what the narrative in the mainstream media is blanketing the country with.
For one, Kennedy isn’t buying the company line on issues like Ukraine, immigration and Covid. He is also a staunch bitcoin advocate, putting him at odds with progressives like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who openly touts her disdain for the cryptocurrency.
Just last week he commented on how Canada’s repression of its truckers during Covid led him to the conclusion that bitcoin is “free money”, telling a conference: “When I witnessed this cataclysm—this devastating use of government repression—I realized for the first time how free money is as important to freedom as free expression.”
He continued: “Bitcoin is a bulwark against precisely this kind of government and corporate expansion and intrusion. As president, I will make sure that your right to hold and use Bitcoin is inviolable.”
Also last week, Kennedy clashed with commentator Krystal Ball about his stance on vaccines, in an “interview” that was actually Ball spending 10 minutes cutting off and interrupting Kennedy while he tried to calmly explain the reasoning for his skepticism.
Mediaite covered the interview, noting that “for years Kennedy has been anti-vaccine and his advocacy has reached new heights since the Covid pandemic.”
Ball openly challenged Kennedy, stating: “This scenario where you and I have significant differences and just to level with you on this, like a lot of what you say I really respond to, I think you’re a very genuine person, but… whether you wanna call it vaccine skepticism or anti-vaxx advocacy…for me personally, it’s an issue and it’s a real sort of red line.”
When Kennedy asked what Ball thought he “got it wrong”, she replied: “Well, I think you get it wrong when you draw a correlation between the rise of things like autism and the introduction of vaccines, when there isn’t hard scientific evidence tying those things together. I’ve listened to hours of interviews with you, with an open mind and I’m not persuaded.”
Kennedy responded: “I’m not leading with my opinions about vaccines. What I say to people is, show me where I got it wrong. Show me where I got my science wrong. I’ve written books about this…”
“But I think people have shown you where things are wrong, but you don’t wanna hear it,” Ball replied, cutting him off. “I will take a look at it, but I don’t think that it’s fair to say nobody has ever pointed out anything that’s been wrong.”
Kennedy responded: “People complain about what I say. Again, I’m not leading on this issue. So people can either take it or leave it, but if you want to — what you just said about me that I’m sort of hardheaded and stubborn and I just won’t give in, you’re wrong about that. If somebody shows me where I’m wrong, I’m gonna correct it.”
You can watch the full “interview” here on the Breaking PointYouTube channel or here:
Why? I join Makis in asking why? McCullough too has waxed on this as this is troubling yet links tightly with the COVID mRNA technology gene injection yet no one involved is asking why?
Excess deths in 2021 post shot, each booster, and now in 2023 it is surging. Why? Is it dementia, old age, or is it Brits are excessively fat? Same for parts of US? Is it delayed treatment due to all beds and hospitals locked off due to COVID in 2020 and now people are way along chronic disease sequelae and now dying? We know we killed many with the COVID protocol of no antibiotics, DNR orders, fraud over-cycled PCR test (above 24 cycles), sedation with midazolam and morphine, isolation, bad abusive treatment of elderly, deadly kidney and liver toxic Remdesivir, ventilators etc. We killed most this way. In US, Canada, UK etc.
Our governments and health systems killed our people.
The society is trying to move on from the fraud of the COVID pandemic for none of it was real; nothing, 100% was false, yet as we pivot and push health and wellness e.g. TWC, Dr. Wolf makes key points
The present study is the first that analyzes, through a complete autopsy and a microscopic analysis of all organs, a death related to COVID-19 despite vaccine administration.
‘The important points of this paper are: 1) the original Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine failed to stop the Delta variant, 2) antibodies are an invalid surrogate of protection and should have never been used 8 times by the US FDA in EUA approvals for extended use of COVID-19 vaccines.’
‘This case report analyzes the death of a fully vaccinated patient who suffered from comorbidities and died from COVID-19; we provide a complete autopsy data set. On microscopic examination, the lungs showed massive interstitial pneumonia, areas of inflammation with interstitial lympho-plasma cell infiltrate, and interstitial edema. The liver showed granulocytes within the hepatic parenchyma. All these elements were consistent with previous published data on unvaccinated patients who had died from COVID-19. The present study is the first that analyzes, through a complete autopsy and a microscopic analysis of all organs, a death related to COVID-19 despite vaccine administration. In this regard, to the best of our knowledge, no other studies have been published reporting a complete autopsy.
This study reports, on the one hand, the importance of vaccination programs in the fight against COVID-19, and, on the other hand, it hypothesizes that the vaccine does not offer complete immunity to SARS-CoV-2, particularly in elderly subjects with comorbidities.’
The society is trying to move on from the fraud of the COVID pandemic for none of it was real; nothing, 100% was false, yet as we pivot and push health and wellness e.g. TWC, Dr. Wolf makes key points
Get Ready for World ID and WorldCoin Universal Basic Income Offering Free Money in Exchange for Your Eyeball Scan
May 21, 2023 6:24 pm
While the American public and even some U.S. politicians have been sounding the alarm recently over the dangers of the potential future rollout of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and the loss of all privacy in any financial transactions, a new blockchain financial network that was launched in 2019, before COVID, has been gaining momentum here in 2023 and is now being used in dozens of countries around the world with over 1.5 million users. And it is now being launched in the United States: World ID with the Worldcoin cryptocurrency. World ID is not some concept for the future. It is already here, and already being used around the world with the World App and Worldcoin, for both financial transactions and “World ID checks.” Why have so many people around the world so quickly signed up for a World ID? Because they are being offered free cryptocurrency, and in some cases even free money in their local currencies, by using their new World ID. And what do they have to do to receive this free money? They just have to have their eyeball scanned by the Worldcoin “Orb” which will then create their unique World ID. Scanning one’s eyeball seems like a pretty creepy way to create an ID, so what is the rationale to use one’s eye as a biometric ID? It is to prove that “you are human” and not an AI, or so they say. This system is going to be rolled out in the United States within the next few weeks, so if you are not familiar with this network yet, I suggest you get up to speed ASAP. How fast could this World ID and World App program be rolled out? Well considering that the founder of Worldcoin and World ID is Sam Altman, the same person who created ChatGPT which last November became the fastest downloaded app in history with hundreds of millions of downloads, I think it is safe to conclude that this World ID could be rolled out very quickly.
Highly Lethal Virus Spread Through Dogs Feces On The Rise Across AmericaREAD MORE…
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VACCINE IMPACT
Yellen: “More Bank Mergers Necessary” as Banks Lose Tens of $Billions in Deposits the Past Two Weeks
May 19, 2023 5:50 pm
It appears that the Biden Administration is abandoning their rhetoric that “the banking system is fine.” CNN reported today that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met with CEOs of large banks yesterday and told them that “more bank mergers may be necessary.” Her statements killed a stock rally this week that saw the stocks of regional banks increase 10%, in one of their best weeks since 2020. Not anymore. As ZeroHedge News reported today, reports show that $billions of losses in deposits at U.S. banks have occurred in the past two weeks, with over $70 billion lost in large US Commercial Banks.
It is about time; USA French and British warships transit the Strait of Hormuz to deter Iran form seizing oi tankers
(zerohedge)
US, British, French Warships Transit Hormuz Strait To Deter Iran From Seizing Tankers
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 12:05 PM
While the world’s attention and international headlines have been focused on news out of Bakhmut over the weekend, there has been a build-up of unusual Western military activity just off Iran’s coast as tensions between Western allies and the Islamic Republic are on the rise.
The US, British, and French navies launched an unusual show of force aimed at Tehran, transiting the narrow Strait of Hormuz in joint movements.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM), which is in charge of the Middle East region, in a statement indicated, “The U.S. 5th Fleet commander transited the Strait of Hormuz aboard guided-missile destroyer USS Paul Hamilton (DDG 60) with naval counterparts from France and the United Kingdom, May 19.”
This stepped-up show of strength comes on the heels of Iran’s recentseizure of two foreign oil tankers. The White House vowed to increase its presence in the Persian Gulf region to prevent such Iranian aggression.
Iran, for its part, has blamed Washington for seizing its own oil exports, for example citing an April US intercept of crude bound for China, casting its actions as a necessary tit-for-tat.
As we wrote last month, all of this means that the “tanker wars” are back, and the situation remains unpredictable, given the US is unlikely to stop its counter-Iran sanctions enforcement.
But Tehran’s military has made it clear that for each Iranian tanker intercept by the US or its allies, the West can expect more international tankers to be boarded by elite Iranian commandos.
Iran meanwhile has been growing closer in military and trade ties with both China and Russia, having even recently conducted naval drills with both strong powers.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0815 UP 0.0022
USA/ YEN 138.27 UP 0.608 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2456 UP 0.0026
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3512 UP .0013 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 12.93 PTS OR 0.39%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 227.60 PTS OR 1.17%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .28% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 227.66 PTS OR 1.17 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.93 PTS OR 0.39%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.28%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 278.47 PTS OR 0.80%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1973.90
silver:$23.78
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 103.04 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN.(7.0044)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.0462
TURKISH LIRA: 19.83 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.382…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from FRIDAY at 3.711% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.961 UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.326% UP 6 in basis points.
USA dollar index, 103.17 UP 9 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 14.12 points or 0.18%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 51.39 PTS OR 0.32%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 53.80 PTS OR 0.58%
Spain IBEX DOWN 38.40 PTS OR 0.42%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 209.63 PTS OR 1.05%
WTI Oil price 72.09 12: EST
Brent Oil: 76.28 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 80.15/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 15//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.451 UP 3 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.0865 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0814 UP 0.0021 OR 21 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2437 UP .0007 or 7 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.0865% UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 138.50 UP 851 //YEN DOWN 85 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3509 UP .0028 CDN dollar, DOWN 28 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 71.81
Brent OIL: 75.87
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 0 BASIS pts to 3.716%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS PTS to 3.970%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 4.3197%
USA dollar index: 103.13 DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.83
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.15 DOWN 0 AND 15/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 140.05 PTS OR 0.42%
NASDAQ 100 UP46.25 PTS OR 0.24%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.28 UP 0.47 PTS (2.80)%
GLD: $183.21 DOWN 0.43 OR 0.23%
SLV/ $21.67 DOWN 0.18 OR 0.87%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Despite Hawkish FedSpeak & Deposit Outflows, Banks Lead Squeezy Stocks Higher; Hedges Hit Record High
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 04:00 PM
No macro data but plenty of FedSpeak, which was once again hawkish this morning:
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari: “If we were to skip in June that does not mean we’re done with our tightening cycle, it means to me we’re getting more information. Do we then start raising again in July, potentially?“
“… What’s important to me is not signaling that we’re done… It may be that we need to go north of 6%, let’s see what happens in the underlying services economy.”
Then St.Louis Fed’s Jim Bullard cranked it up to ’11’: “I think we’re going to have to grind higher with the policy rate in order to put enough downward pressure on inflation and to return inflation to target in a timely manner… I’m thinking two more moves this year – exactly where those would be this year I don’t know – but I’ve often advocated sooner rather than later.”
“As long as the labor market is so good it’s a great time to fight inflation, get it back to target,” he said.
“Get this problem behind us and not replay the 1970s.”
As a reminder, after the bell of Friday, The Fed released data showing deposits outflows, especially from Small Banks, continue to accelerate…
Source: Bloomberg
Regional bank shares soared helped by PACW which spiked on a deal to sell a big chunk of its real estate construction loans. However, as the chart below shows, the KRE ETF ramped up to last week’s highs and stalled (and we offer the large chart for context…
JPM CEO Jamie Dimon had some less than exciting words for regional banks, warning about “what’s runnable” as opposed to uninsured vs insured deposits and said “everybody should be prepared for higher rates from here.”
Small Caps were the day’s best performers (financials and short-squeeze) while The Dow was the biggest loser. The S&P was unch and Nasdaq managed some gains
0-DTE call-buyers did God’s work and engineered the S&P back above 4200 again (but it couldn’t hold for the close)…
The 0-DTE impulses stoked the squeeze as ‘Most Shorted’ stocks surged higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman’s Brian Garrett notes that the combined put open interest across major equity ETFs stands at ~41mm contracts (as of last data count // Thursday close). This is the highest ETF put open interest in history…
…the last time put open interest approached these levels was Aug of 2011 (debt limit version 1.0) … note this index tracks 14 most commonly traded (ie, XL sector ETFs + SPY, QQQ, etc). Garrett notes that Goldman’s data suggests risk in equities is increasing, implied volatility is bottom of the range, the cost to hedge is low (cheap?), and clearly investors are finally using the option market to protect left tail.
Interestingly, the vol curve remains lower (bullish) into the X-Date…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were higher across the curve in a relatively uniform manner (up 3-4bps)… once again the main selling pressure was during the US session…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the 7th straight day of higher yields (longest streak since Sept 2022) with the 2Y back at its highest since March 10th (right as SVB collapsed)…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-hike odds rose today, erasing FDriday’s decline…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied today from overnight weakness…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin rallied back above $27,000 but could not hold it – ending around unch…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold dipped lower with futs unable to get back to $2,000…
Oil rallied very modestly on the day, with WTO back above $72…
Finally, we note that 6mo T-Bill yields are now trading at a 33bps premium to the earnings yield of the S&P 500…
Source: Bloomberg
That’s the largest premium since Feb 2001.
b) THIS MORNING TRADING // debt ceiling reports
weekend report/Sunday
Debt Ceiling Negotiations Crumble, McCarthy And Biden To Hold Sunday Call As Impasse Intensifies
SUNDAY, MAY 21, 2023 – 12:00 PM
Negotiations in Washington DC over the debt ceiling have taken a big step back over the weekend, as the White House and House Republicans continue to point fingers at each other.
“It seems as though he wants default more than he wants a deal,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) told Fox News on Sunday. “We have got 11 days to go,” McCarthy continued, urging Biden and the Democrats to be “sensible about this.”
Republicans have been pushing for substantial, longer-term spending reductions, arguing that Congress needs to roll the nation’s deficit spending back to 2022 levels, while restricting the growth of government spending. The White House, on the other hand, wants to achieve policy goals via taxation.
McCarthy said there’s some talk of extending the debt ceiling until 2025, but he said he’s demanding cuts to federal spending in exchange for GOP votes to do so. Biden, he said, is resisting.
“The president keeps changing positions every time Bernie Sanders has a press conference,” he said.
McCarthy said Biden is demanding tax increases after earlier agreeing to keep them off the table. He also said Republicans have made compromises but didn’t specify them. –Bloomberg
Meanwhile, Biden – speaking at a press conference held after the Group of Seven (G-7) summit in Hiroshima, said that he would speak with McCarthy shortly, though he added that the Republican plan was unacceptable.
“The speaker and I’ll be talking later on the plane as we head back,” said Biden. “And our teams are going to continue working.”
“I’m willing to cut spending, and I proposed cuts in spending of over a trillion dollars,” he continued. “But I believe we have to also look at the tax revenues,” adding that the Republican proposal to cut $2 trillion in taxes would hurt the economy.
“Now it’s time for the other side to move from their extreme positions, because much of what they’ve already proposed is simply, quite frankly, unacceptable,” Biden told reporters. “And it’s time for Republicans to accept that there is no bipartisan deal to be made solely on their partisan terms.”
He also rambled a lot.
Biden’s comments came after McCarthy on Saturday accused the White House of backtracking during negotiations, and told reporters that there would be no progress made until Biden returns from the trip.
“The White House is moving backward in negotiations,” McCarthy tweeted Saturday afternoon. “Unfortunately, the socialist wing of the Democrat Party appears to be in control—especially with President Biden out of the country.”
“President Biden doesn’t think there is a single dollar of savings to be found in the federal government’s budget,” McCarthy tweeted in the evening. “He’d rather be the first president in history to default on the debt than to risk upsetting the radical socialists who are calling the shots for Democrats right now.”
One of McCarthy’s top deputies, House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) on Sunday said he’s ‘pessimistic’ about the current state of negotiations, and that there is no plans for DC-based negotiations to continue at this time.
In response to McCarthy’s comments, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre issued a statement from Hiroshima, reiterating Biden’s c all for a “reasonable bipartisan budget agreement.”
“Last night in D.C., the Speaker’s team put on the table an offer that was a big step back and contained a set of extreme partisan demands that could never pass both Houses of Congress,” she said.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellenunderscored the urgency of the situation, telling NBC that the likelihood the US would be able to pay its bills by mid-June is “quite low.”
“Well, there’s always uncertainty about tax receipts and spending,” Yellen told“Meet the Press” on Sunday. “And so it’s hard to be absolutely certain about this, but my assessment is that the odds of reaching June 15 while being able to pay all of our bills is quite low.”
“Deficits can be addressed both through changes in spending and also through changes in revenue — and Republicans have taken that off the table,” Yellen continued.
In short, drama right up to the finish line. Did you expect anything less?
end
MONDAY
They will try again today at 4:15 after the markets close
(zerohedge)
Biden, McCarthy To Meet Monday After Debt-Ceiling Deal Suffers Weekend Setbacks
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 09:15 AM
President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) are scheduled to meet at 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday afternoon to attempt to get the debt ceiling negotiations back on track in the hopes of reaching a deal that could pass both the Republican-led House and Democratic-led Senate, after talks broke down over the weekend.
The two have as few as 10 days to get a deal done to raise or suspend the debt ceiling before the US Treasury runs out of cash and other options to keep the lights on – with Biden cutting his G-7 trip short by four days, while speaking with McCarthy from Air Force One as he made his way home.
“It went well,” Biden told reporters late Sunday following his arrival at the White House, adding “we’ll talk tomorrow.”
Both Biden and McCarthy have vowed to avoid defaulting on the nation’s obligations for the first time in history, despite disagreements over how to proceed The GOP has insisted that any increase in borrowing be accompanied by steep cuts in government spending – and passed a House bill in April to accomplish this, while Democrats want a ‘clean’ increase with no strings attached. For months, Democrats have refused to negotiate, and only entered into talks in the last week as the deadline approached, the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The gap in the top line numbers continues to be the biggest barrier to a deal,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD), chair of the Main Street Caucus of nearly 100 Republicans.
Biden has said he would like to work to narrow the deficit with some tax increases to wealthy Americans, but McCarthy said tax increases are off the table. Democrats have accused Republicans of seeking draconian spending cuts that they said would hurt education and healthcare research programs.
GOP lawmakers also want to attach changes to permitting rules that would speed the process of building energy projects and to strengthen work requirements for government benefit programs, notions that the White House has signaled some openness to.
Democrats want the debt ceiling increased until after the 2024 election, while Republicans’ original bill pushed the next debt ceiling deadline to March 2024. -WSJ
The impasse has begun to translate to Wall Street jitters – with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen twice warning that the so-called “X-date” – the day treasury reserves fall too low to cover expenses – could arrive as soon as June 1, and Fitch and Moody’s ratings agencies warning that they could place the country’s credit under review if the X-date comes too close.
In 2011, a similar standoff between the Obama-led Democrats and Republicans prompted S&P to lower its rating of US debt, sending markets reeling.
Goldman Sachs and other financial firms have projected the date to fall around June 8 or 9, which would give Congress another week to act.
“We do expect investors’ concerns to mount as the X-date approaches, particularly if there’s no solution and the sides look wide apart,” UBS managing director and chief U.S. economist, Jonathan Pingle, told The Washington Post. “As we approach, we basically see equity markets are increasingly likely to sell off, volatility indexes move higher, and there are going to be shifts and concerns in financial markets that aren’t going to be great to live through.”
“My sense is that if we get toward the end of the coming week and the rhetoric is dark, we’ll see a lot more red on the screen,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics , adding that “global investors are more panicked than domestic investors.”
Before talks broke down on Friday – with Republicans rejecting a White House offer to freeze, rather than reduce spending, the GOP’s top negotiator, Rep. Garret Graves (LA) offered a proposal to cut federal spending by more than $1200 billion in the coming fiscal year, and to cap most agencies’ budgets through the 2030 fiscal year, according to the Post, citing two people familiar with the offer who spoke on condition of anonymity. The GOP proposal – which was essentially their April bill which was approved by the House – also called for tougher immigration enforcement at the southern US border.
The White House responded to the offer, countering with a freeze on spending in the 2024 fiscal year to 2023 levels, arguing that it would represent a cut because budgets would not rise with inflation, according to WaPo.
Republicans outright rejected that counter, insisting that domestic spending must undergo a significant cut so that overall spending drops in the upcoming fiscal year.
On Monday, the House Freedom Caucus is expected to urge McCarthy to reject any offer from Biden unless it includes beefed up border security, cuts to the FBI, and every provision in the House-passed bill.
“The Freedom Caucus will vote next week to basically accept only what we have sent to him plus what we’re adding to it,” according to Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), a member of the caucus.
END
THIS AFTERNOON
Ahead Of Biden-McCarthy Meeting, Yellen Re-Warns “Highly Likely” Emergency Measures Exhausted By Early June
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 04:29 PM
Update (1600ET): In another letter to Congress, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was re-warned that it’s now “highly likely” that her department will run out of sufficient cash in early June, and repeated her warning that the moment could come as soon as June 1.
“I am writing to note that we estimate that it is highly likely that Treasury will no longer be able to satisfy all of the government’s obligations if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1,” Yellen said Monday in a letter to lawmakers.
We estimate that as of May 17, the Treasury had around $160bn in cash and extraordinary measures remaining. Through June 1, we estimate that the Treasury will use around $85bn in room under the limit (a $130bn cash deficit offset by a $45bn reduction in intragovernmental debt), leaving around $75bn in headroom. By June 8-9 we estimate this would drop under $30bn, which is the minimum balance the Treasury has used in the past to project the debt limit deadline (Exhibit 1).
However, the estimate is subject to substantial uncertainty so there is certainly a chance that receipts could slow more than expected and leave the Treasury short of cash by June 1 or 2.
Which probably explains why the short-term Bill market is at its most spooked yet…
* * *
President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) are scheduled to meet at 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday afternoon to attempt to get the debt ceiling negotiations back on track in the hopes of reaching a deal that could pass both the Republican-led House and Democratic-led Senate, after talks broke down over the weekend.
The two have as few as 10 days to get a deal done to raise or suspend the debt ceiling before the US Treasury runs out of cash and other options to keep the lights on – with Biden cutting his G-7 trip short by four days, while speaking with McCarthy from Air Force One as he made his way home.
“It went well,” Biden told reporters late Sunday following his arrival at the White House, adding “we’ll talk tomorrow.”
Both Biden and McCarthy have vowed to avoid defaulting on the nation’s obligations for the first time in history, despite disagreements over how to proceed The GOP has insisted that any increase in borrowing be accompanied by steep cuts in government spending – and passed a House bill in April to accomplish this, while Democrats want a ‘clean’ increase with no strings attached. For months, Democrats have refused to negotiate, and only entered into talks in the last week as the deadline approached, the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The gap in the top line numbers continues to be the biggest barrier to a deal,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD), chair of the Main Street Caucus of nearly 100 Republicans.
Biden has said he would like to work to narrow the deficit with some tax increases to wealthy Americans, but McCarthy said tax increases are off the table. Democrats have accused Republicans of seeking draconian spending cuts that they said would hurt education and healthcare research programs.
GOP lawmakers also want to attach changes to permitting rules that would speed the process of building energy projects and to strengthen work requirements for government benefit programs, notions that the White House has signaled some openness to.
Democrats want the debt ceiling increased until after the 2024 election, while Republicans’ original bill pushed the next debt ceiling deadline to March 2024. -WSJ
The impasse has begun to translate to Wall Street jitters – with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen twice warning that the so-called “X-date” – the day treasury reserves fall too low to cover expenses – could arrive as soon as June 1, and Fitch and Moody’s ratings agencies warning that they could place the country’s credit under review if the X-date comes too close.
In 2011, a similar standoff between the Obama-led Democrats and Republicans prompted S&P to lower its rating of US debt, sending markets reeling.
Goldman Sachs and other financial firms have projected the date to fall around June 8 or 9, which would give Congress another week to act.
“We do expect investors’ concerns to mount as the X-date approaches, particularly if there’s no solution and the sides look wide apart,” UBS managing director and chief U.S. economist, Jonathan Pingle, told The Washington Post. “As we approach, we basically see equity markets are increasingly likely to sell off, volatility indexes move higher, and there are going to be shifts and concerns in financial markets that aren’t going to be great to live through.”
“My sense is that if we get toward the end of the coming week and the rhetoric is dark, we’ll see a lot more red on the screen,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics , adding that “global investors are more panicked than domestic investors.”
Before talks broke down on Friday – with Republicans rejecting a White House offer to freeze, rather than reduce spending, the GOP’s top negotiator, Rep. Garret Graves (LA) offered a proposal to cut federal spending by more than $1200 billion in the coming fiscal year, and to cap most agencies’ budgets through the 2030 fiscal year, according to the Post, citing two people familiar with the offer who spoke on condition of anonymity. The GOP proposal – which was essentially their April bill which was approved by the House – also called for tougher immigration enforcement at the southern US border.
The White House responded to the offer, countering with a freeze on spending in the 2024 fiscal year to 2023 levels, arguing that it would represent a cut because budgets would not rise with inflation, according to WaPo.
Republicans outright rejected that counter, insisting that domestic spending must undergo a significant cut so that overall spending drops in the upcoming fiscal year.
On Monday, the House Freedom Caucus is expected to urge McCarthy to reject any offer from Biden unless it includes beefed up border security, cuts to the FBI, and every provision in the House-passed bill.
“The Freedom Caucus will vote next week to basically accept only what we have sent to him plus what we’re adding to it,” according to Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), a member of the caucus.
END
II) USA DATA/
USA deposit outflows accelerate led by the small banks. The treasury has 57 billion dollars left (dated May 18)
(zerohedge)
US Deposit Outflows Accelerated Last Week, Led By Small Banks
However, Treasury Secretary Yellen spoiled the party somewhat today by warning (reportedly) that the market should expect ‘more bank mergers’ (i.e. failures)…
And so, according to the latest H8 report from The Fed, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, total US Commercial Bank deposits fell by $26.4 billion during the week ended 5/10 – the third straight week…
Source: Bloomberg
On a seasonally adjusted basis, US commercial bank deposits (ex-large time deposits) decreased $20.8bn last week (during the week-ending 5/10), for the fifth straight weekly outflow. That is the lowest since March 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, US commercial bank deposits (ex-large time deposits) dropped $50.26 billion (after jumping $63.8 billion) the prior week.
And judging by yesterday’s money market inflows, the deposit outflows continued this week (remember, deposit data is lagged a week to money market and Fed balance sheet data), despite reassurances from WAL…
Source: Bloomberg
On a seasonally-adjusted basis (ex large time deposits), Large, Small, and Foreign banks all saw outflows last week. Small bank deposits are at their lowest since May 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the 5th straight week of Small Bank outflows and Small Banks saw the largest outflows…
Large Banks -$7.49 billion SA (-$36.5 billion NSA)
Small Banks -$8.742 billion SA (-$12.5 billion NSA)
Foreign Banks -$4.627 billion SA (-$1.2 billion NSA)
Source: Bloomberg
Including large time deposits, the breakdown is as follows:
Large banks -$21.6BN
Small banks -$2.7BN
Foreign Banks -$2.1BN
Jim Bianco points out an interesting fact in today’s data – ‘large time deposits’ saw their first outflow since last October…not a good sign as Jim points out
Finally, after adjusting for all the revisions (which are now an every week occurrence), what sticks out to us is that the last 5 weeks have seen $379 billion in NSA bank outflows, while SA the number is an outflow of only $171 billion.
Source: Bloomberg
So The Fed is claiming there are still over $200 billion in tax-payment related deposits expected to return to banks.
Source: Bloomberg
The Fed’s report showed residential real estate loans declined a seasonally adjusted $2.6 billion, while lending for commercial properties rose slightly. Consumer loans also ticked up from the prior week, while commercial and industrial loans fell $3.5 billion.
On the other side of the ledger, Commercial bank lending was little changed in the week ended May 10th, according to seasonally adjusted data. Large bank loans dropped $6.159 billion while Small Bank loans actually rose by $6.85 billion (despite significant deposit outflows)…
Source: Bloomberg
And all of this happened a week before WAL claimed its deposits are rising.
END
-END-
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Goldman predicts a huge 25% drop in office building prices and this will be bad for the banks
(zerohedge)
Goldman Finds “Most Accurate” Reading Of Current CRE Conditions, Predicts 25% Drop In Office Building Prices
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 – 08:00 PM
There are increasing concerns about the severity of the downturn in the commercial real estate market. This week, Moody’s Analytics reported the first quarterly drop in CRE prices in over a decade. The most pressing issue at the moment is determining the extent to which these prices will drop.
Shedding more color on the potential depth of the downturn is Goldman Sachs chief credit strategist Lotfi Karoui. He told clients on Thursday that there are many ways to track CRE prices, though “the most accurate portrayal of current market conditions” is data via the Green Street Commercial Property Price Index, which suggests trouble ahead.
Here’s part of Karoui’s note explaining why Green Street data foretells the coming price plunge in office and apartment property values.
Over the past few months, we have been arguing the sizeable valuation gap between public and private real estate markets will start to close through a catch-down in property prices. Taking stock of the catch-down is, however, not that straightforward. There are many ways to track commercial property prices, often offering divergent pictures.
We show the performance of four popular commercial property price indices in Exhibit 8, suggesting price depreciation from peak levels anywhere between 15% and 2%. The two main methods of index construction are transaction-based such as RCA and NCREIF’s repeat sales indices, and appraisal-based such as the Green Street Commercial Property Price Index and the Federal Reserve Board Commercial Real Estate Price Index. Each methodology has its own shortcomings.
Repeat sales transaction indices often provide the most unbiased estimate of prices as they control for changes in the market’s composition. But the paltry level of transaction volume at present has shrunk the sample size of these indices (Exhibit 9). Appraisal-based indices can also be noisy at times. That said, at the current juncture, they likely provide the most accurate portrayal of current market conditions with Green Street indicating a 25% year-over-year drop in office property values and a 21% drop in apartment property values.
In Karoui’s view, Green Street’s data seems to be the most precise, forecasting a forthcoming price drop in office and apartment buildings. The index is weighted heavily towards retail, office, and apartments.
Also, the slide in CRE transaction volumes shows the entire sector might be headed for a deep freeze as lending conditions tighten.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank veteran strategist Jim Reid painted an ominous outlook for the US economy in a note to clients. He pointed to aggressive central bank interest rate hikes breaking parts of the economy as the end of the hiking cycle usually ends with a bang.
Reid also showed nearly two centuries of US money supply (year-on-year % change) data that shows the fastest collapse since the 1930s. This is a major red flag for the economy and capital markets, and past collapses have led to panics, recessions, and depressions.
It appears as though a downturn has arrived, with the regional banking and CRE sectors bearing the brunt of the Fed’s tightening over the past year.
There is more in the Goldman note from Lotfi Karoui, available to pro subscribers in the usual place.
end
Hotels in the city are 50% occupied by illegal migrants and that hurts the economy badly.
(Gateway Pundit/LaChance)
and special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us;
NYC Mayor Eric Adams Complains That 50% of City’s Hotel Rooms Now Occupied by Illegal Migrants – Hurting the Economy | The Gateway Pundit | by Mike LaChance
WAYNE ROOT: Everyone Has Missed Real Revelation of the Durham Report: Obama is the REAL ‘Big Guy.’ Obama is the Criminal Mastermind. Obama Committed Treason. | The Gateway Pundit | by Guest Contributor
Like all Democrat-run cities that turned against police in 2020, New York City has a crime problem, including an explosive uptick in shoplifting. Fortunately for New York City store owners, Mayor Eric Adams has a plan. The problem is that, as with all lefty plans, it will cost money and almost certainly be completely useless.
Ever since the George Floyd riots caused leftist-managed cities to defund their police, all sorts of crimes have increased. In New York City, the crime that’s really taken off is shoplifting.
In the first eight months of 2021, shoplifting in New York increased by 30% over rates in 2020. Of course, one could argue that slowly ending the lockdown was what made the difference. However, that wouldn’t explain what happened in 2022. In that year, shoplifting went up by another 45% over rates in 2021, with an even better marker being the fact that it was 275% higher than a decade or so earlier.
Shoplifting may be a non-violent crime, but it has a disastrous effect on people in the community because stores, including big box stores, respond to theft in two different ways: First, they raise their prices; then when that proves ineffective, they pick up their marbles and go home by shutting down stores. In San Francisco, for example, Walgreens closed five stores due to shoplifting. Target, meanwhile, predicts that retail crime will cost it as much as $1.3 billion:
Crime-battered retail giant Target said it expects to suffer as much as a $1.3 billion hit to its bottom line because of “theft and organized crime,” according to the company’s first-quarter earnings report released Wednesday.
The Minneapolis-based chain said its profit will be squeezed by “$500 million more than what we saw last year” – when the company lost as much as $800 million from “inventory shrink.”
Considering that Target voiced its full-throated support for BLM and dug deep in its pocket to support the communist organization, one can’t help but notice an “actions have consequences” scenario at work. That’s a shame because Target used to be a very nice place. Now, though, aside from shoplifting, lots of people (me included) are fed up with its Pride shenanigans, which it’s now aimed at children. But I digress…
New York mayor Eric Adams seems to have been feeling the heat from merchants in New York City, so his office has announced a “crackdown on shoplifting plan.”
As always, though, when the government steps in to help, the devil is in the details:
And yes, that screen shot is real, not a Photoshop. According to Fox 5’s full report,
The new crackdown includes giving first-time offenders intervention programs instead of prosecution, de-escalation training for retail employees, establishing neighborhood retail watch groups to share information about a theft in real-time with one another and the police, and installing kiosks in stores to connect would-be thieves with social service programs.
One of the things that everyone has noticed about shoplifters is that they’re not starved, Dickensian-style waifs stealing a loaf of bread to survive. Instead, they’re organized gangs that go in and steal merchandise that has a good retail value on the street:
Or if they’re eating what they steal, it’s party time, not starvation time:
What’s happening is organized crime:
In other words, little police kiosks promising social services (which will augment all the posters about social services in the crime-ridden NY subway) are not going to change things. Nor will friendly little “intervention programs” affect what is hardcore criminal activity. The NYC plan is taking a flyswatter to an out-of-control wild boar.
I would say that the people of NYC deserve better but, actually, they don’t. This is what they voted for. It’s not just that Adams garnered 80.4% of the vote in Manhattan, 76% in the Bronx, 70.8% in Brooklyn, and 59.8% in Queens, with only Staten Island showing the good sense to vote for Curtis Sliwa (66.4% of the votes). It’s also that a total of only 1,125,000 turned out to vote, out of a city with a population that’s close to 9,000,000.
The only ones I feel for are the conservatives (some of whom I count among my good friends) who took the time and made the effort to vote. As to those people, I’ve heard that Florida’s a nice place, as are most of the southern states.
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
The CIA and the FBI are nothing but an arm for the Democrats.
(zerohedge
Reps. Jim Jordan, Mike Turner Threaten To Subpoena CIA In Hunter Biden Laptop Investigation
Last week, the two Republican-controlled House committees published a report alleging the CIA’s Prepublication Classification Review Board (PCRB) reviewed and approved an October 2020 letter by 51 former U.S. intelligence community officials, which alleged reports about the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop had “all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.” The Republican report also alleged a PCRB employee may have recruited signatories for the letter discrediting the negative reporting about Hunter Biden and his father, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden.
The laptop materials, which were first reported by the New York Post, indicated Joe Biden knew about his son’s foreign business dealings despite having denied such knowledge throughout the 2020 election cycle.
Jordan and Turner sent a letter (pdf) to CIA Director William Burns on Wednesday, requesting that the agency turn over additional documents relating to its involvement in the October 2020 intelligence community letter. The Republican chairmen threatened to use their subpoena power to compel the intelligence agency to divulge its records.
PCRB’s Role in Intel Community Letter
According to the May 10 Republican report (pdf), former CIA officials played an active role in recruiting signatories for the letter discrediting the Hunter Biden laptop reports.
The report alleges U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was working for the Biden campaign at the time, reached out to former CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell on Oct. 17, 2020, to discuss the intelligence community letter. Morell, an Obama-era CIA official, was quick to agree to the plan and actively recruited other signatories.
On Oct. 19, 2020, two days after discussing the letter with Blinken, Morell sent a final draft of the letter to the PCRB for review. Morell told the CIA board “[t]his is a rush job, as it need to get out as soon as possible.” According to the Republican report, the signatories hoped to give then-candidate Joe Biden a “talking point” to defend against the Hunter Biden laptop reporting during his final presidential debate with Donald Trump on Oct. 22, 2020.
The PCRB’s sole function is to make sure current and former CIA employees aren’t disclosing classified information in any materials they may release publicly. The board, therefore, has an influential role over current and former agency employees who may be pursuing potentially lucrative book deals about their time working for America’s premier spy agency.
One such signatory, former CIA analyst David Cariens, told congressional investigators that his book was up for consideration by the PCRB at the time Morell and other former intelligence community officials were looking for people to sign their letter. Cariens told investigators that a CIA employee affiliated with the PCRB informed him of the intelligence community letter and asked if he would sign it. Cariens said “the person in charge of reviewing the book” called to tell him that it had been approved without any changes required and then told him about the letter.
There is a new and interesting development in Arkansas where attorneys for Lunden Alexis Roberts have prepared a list of witnesses for the upcoming proceedings involving Hunter Biden’s daughter, Navy.
On the list are business partners at the center of the influence peddling scandal.
(Thank you to the reader who sent this possibly prophetic intersection picture).
On the list are business partners who are connected to millions of dollars acquired from foreign interests in China, Ukraine and other countries. Also on the list is New York City art gallery owner Georges Bergès who continues to sell his art. Bergès has reportedly pushed back on congressional efforts to reveal details on these proceeds and buyers even though former government ethicists have raised concerns over the sales.
The costs of these proceedings and high-priced legal team would seem to undermine claims of financial distress by Biden. However, by putting his financial worth at issue, Hunter has opened up a new front in battling over the disclosure of his past dealings. Some of his past associates are reportedly cooperating with House investigators in tracking foreign payments.
Even the Washington Post has belatedly published an editorial admitting that this is all a serious concern over influence peddling. In an editorial titled “Millions flowed to Biden family members. Don’t pretend it doesn’t matter.”
It was a bittersweet moment for many of us who have been writing about these dealings for years as newspapers like the Post downplayed the scandal or the authenticity of the laptop. Media outlets like National Public Radio (NPR) declared that it “not want to waste our time on stories that are not really stories, and we don’t want to waste the listeners’ and readers’ time on stories that are just pure distractions.” These disclosures have been forced into the public despite the best efforts of the Post and other media. Indeed, recently the Post’s Philip Bump derided the House investigation as a “fishing expedition . . . it’s nearly all innuendo, a big corkboard with lots of pictures but little interconnecting string.” His “witchhunt” attack was then repeated by others at the Post.
Despite these efforts, Hunter Biden appears to doing his level best to force the issue in Arkansas. It is not clear if the court will call any of these witnesses. However, since Hunter has put his finances at issue, some disclosures will need to be made.
As for Navy, she is still uncertain if the court will allow her to use the Biden name despite her father’s efforts to the contrary. While it does not appear that Hunter (who lives in a California mansion) is financially broke, his actions (and those of the President and First Lady) toward this little girl show a moral deficit and delinquency that is abundantly obvious.
END
The huge libor case in 2008 (Libor-gate) was allegedly central bank led
(zerohedge)
‘Lie-bor-Gate’ 2.0 – Rate-Rigging During Lehman Crisis Was Allegedly Central-Bank-Led
MONDAY, MAY 22, 2023 – 09:35 AM
Just when you thought it was all over (or couldn’t get any worse)…
In the last decade, 37 traders and brokers have been prosecuted by the US Department of Justice and the UK’s Serious Fraud Office for their roles in ‘rigging’ interest-rates during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).
However, in extracts from Rigged, a book by Andy Verity on the Libor-rigging scandal (published in The Times), he explains how in 2008, it was central banks and government that pressed banks to bring down key interest rates, but none of this evidence was ever shown to jurors in nine criminal trials which resulted in multiple jail sentences for those involved (19 convicted, 9 jailed).
Backed up and supplemented by published data, The BBC reports that the suppressed evidence indicates that in October 2008, central banks intervened on a large scale in the setting of Libor and Euribor.
This was at the same time as dozens of former traders were criminally prosecuted for much less serious rate “manipulation”, it is claimed.
In October 2008 there was an international drive, involving the central banks of the UK, US and eurozone, to get Libor down and restore a sense of calm to the market, at a time when banks lending had almost ground to a halt.
Andrew Tyrie, who chaired the UK Treasury Committee of MPs when it enquired into Libor in 2012, told the BBC that he believed Parliament “appears to have been misled”.
“The evidence that Mr Verity has unearthed strongly suggests that the committee’s inquiry into the Libor scandal was not told the whole truth.
“The public rely on Parliament to get to the truth. This case illustrates why Parliament should bolster its information-gathering powers with more effective sanctions against those who provide less than the full picture. Parliament appears to have been misled and, if that’s the case, should not let it rest.”
Further suppressed evidence indicates that the UK government, including 10 Downing Street, was also involved in pressuring banks to “manipulate” Libor as defined by the criminal courts – meaning seeking to obtain movements in the benchmark rate while “disregarding the proper basis for setting Libor”.
If they allowed its setting to be influenced by other factors, such as the desire to avoid bad publicity or to help a bank’s market trades, they could be jailed for interest rate “manipulation”.
So, if Verity’s allegations are true, the politicians and policy makers threw individual traders under the bus for actions they were coerced to take action on from the top-down, while at the same time admonishing those ‘greedy bankers’.
The report alleges that the Bank of England, Banque de France, European Central Bank, Banca d’Italia, Banco de Espana and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York interfered with the London and Euro Interbank Offered Rates, or Libor and Euriobor, benchmarks on a grand scale as the financial crisis deepened in the fall of 2008.
Speaking in Parliament on Friday, Conservative MP David Davis urged lawmakers to back a probe into the covering up of “state involvement in Libor rigging, and the scapegoating of 37 low and middle-ranking bankers, some of whom spent years in jail.
“I am also greatly concerned that the Treasury Select Committee may have been misled by state agencies about the knowledge and involvement of the state in setting false rates,” Davis said.
The committee chairman also said Parliament had been misled because the new evidence showed information had been withheld from the panel’s 2012 probe into Libor.
As one would expect, regulators have pushed back against Verity’s accusations with BoE claiming it was “entirely false,” ECB saying it “strongly rebuts” the assertions, while Bloomberg reports The FBI, the Fed, Barclays and the Treasury declined to comment to the Times.
The latest extract ends with a hell of a cliffhanger…
In November 2010, investigating agencies from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to the UK financial regulator were directly informed of this – but they have since kept it secret from Parliament, Congress and the public.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report May 22, 2023 Issue 6995
Independent View of the News
Please recall that after SVB blew up and was rescued in March, we noted that after Bears Stearns blew up and was rescued in March 2008, stocks rallied sharply into late May 2008.
You can be sure that numerous large-entity pattern traders played this dynamic. But the easy part of that pattern trade is over. Will the momentum of the current rally carry further? That is the question!
Japan’s Nikkei powers to 1990 ‘bubble’ era high (There is too much juice in the system!) Japan’s Nikkei share average rallied to the highest since August 1990, the country’s so-called ‘bubble’ era, driven by a confluence of positive factors from strong earnings to optimism over a US debt ceiling deal. The benchmark index jumped as high as 30,924.57 shortly after the open… https://t.co/ftUJQX9jdj
ESMs opened modestly higher on Thursday night but quickly soared on the Nikkei surge. ESMs hit a peak of 4225.25 at 18:17 ET. They then fell to 4213.50 at 21:37 ET. ESMs then chopped sideways, in a 10-handle range, until they moved higher at 7:21 ET. ESMs quickly settled into another 10-handle range.
ESMs and stocks broke down while troubled regional banks got hammered on this: Yellen Told Bank CEOs More Mergers May Be Necessary – CNN 11:10 ET
Powell’s hawkish remarks contributed to the decline.Price Stability Is Foundation of Strong Economy – BBG 11:04 ETInflation Is Far Above Our 2% Objective – BBG 11:06 ETFailure To Get Inflation Down Would Prolong Pain, also Increase the Pain – BBG 11:06 ETPossible We’ll See Further Supply Shocks – DJ 11:18 ETInflation May Be More Responsive to Change in Job Market – BBG 11:26 ETMay Be Case That Phillips Curve Has Steepened – BBG 11:27 ETFed Has Obligation to Provide Transparency to Public – BBG 11:31 ET ESMs hit a daily low of 4206.75 at 11:12 ET. It was time for Old World traders to manipulate stuff higher for the 11:30 ET European close. Powell abetted the rally when he said the Fed might not have to raise rates as much to arrest inflation if credit contracts (11:16 ET).
The algos and traders that bought on Powell’s qualification (a big IF) that credit contraction may mitigate the need for higher rates were punished when Powell stated: “It has been the case that markets are pricing a different rate path that seems to reflect a different forecast of inflation coming down more quickly. So far, data seem to support the committee’s view that it will take time to lower inflation.”
Debt Limit Talks Hit Roadblock as GOP Negotiators Walk Out – BBG 11:33 ET “Look, they’re just unreasonable,” Republican Rep Graves said, adding the talks were on a “pause.” Graves said he did not know if the negotiations would meet again Friday or over the weekend.
ESMs tumbled into and beyond the European close, hitting a low of 4191.50 at 11:39 ET. ESMs quickly rallied vertically, hitting 4210.00 at 11:56 ET. Bulls noted that the talks were just ‘paused.’ This proves our hypothesis that most traders are so bullish that they buy stuff on de minis inducement.
ESMs and stocks sank anew on this (12:33 ET): Speaker McCarthy: “We’ve got to get movement from the White House, and we don’t have any movement yet… We can’t be spending more money next year. We have to spend less than we spent the year before. It’s pretty easy…” https://twitter.com/Grady_Trimble/status/1659599025207640064
ESMs rebounded quickly because it was expiration day. The usual suspects will not allow failed debt ceiling talks and official warnings about more bank failures to spoil the expiry manipulation!
Negative news is largely dismissed or ignored when traders need to manipulate stuff on expiration day!
The equity rally halted when the afternoon arrived. ESMs and stocks then rolled over until a drop began at 13:40 ET. The decline ended after the 14:15 ET VIX Fix. It was time for the late manipulation for expiration day. The rally ended within 6 minutes. Another rally attempt appeared at 14:55 ET. It was time for the last-hour manipulation. Alas, the rally stalled within 5 minutes.
ESMs and stocks traded sideways until the usual suspects juiced ESMs at 14:50 ET. The rally failed.
Once again, bonds declined sharply, hitting a low of 126 6/32 (-1 3/32) at 9:41 ET. Yellen’s bank merger comment ignited a rally; USMs hit 127 28/32 at 11:40 ET. USMs then retreated and went flat, with a slight downward bias, from 12:15 ET until they broke down near 14:12 ET.
Bernanke differentiated the 2008 Financial Crisis from the current regional bank duress by noting that current stress is due to losses on Treasuries, which have “a clear value”, whereas in 2008 the losses were on hard-to-value subprime securities (and derivatives, we will importantly add).
Dalio: “Where I’m Coming From – I’m a global macro investor focused on the five big forces: 1) the money/credit/economic force, 2) the political force within countries, 3) the geopolitical force between countries, 4) the acts of nature force, and 5) the learning/technology force. These are inextricably linked to each other, especially the money/credit/economic and political forces when it comes to the debt limit issue in the US. For that reason, in answering this question I will start with the political issue because I think that it is our greatest threat to good decision making… When debt assets and liabilities reach the point that the amount of debt sold is greater than the amount of debt that buyers want to buy, central banks are faced with a choice: they either have to let interest rates rise to balance the supply and demand, which is crushing to debtors and the economy, or they have to print money and buy the debt, which is inflationary and encourages holders of the debt to sell the debt, which makes this debt imbalance worse. In either case that creates a debt crisis that is like the runs on the banks that we have been seeing, but with government bonds being what is sold and the run on the bank being a run on the central bank…” https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-should-done-debt-ceiling-argument-between-democrats-ray-dalio/?published=t
WSJ: For Executives Only, CEOs Amass Billions in Savings With ‘Top Hat’ Plans The top five executives at 500 large publicly traded companies held a combined $8.9 billion in the plans, according to two nonprofits – A little known savings plan is making the wealth gap even wider… Tax law allows executives to defer up to 100% of their compensation without paying income tax on the money until they withdraw it. “People’s minds are blown when they see the wage gap between CEOs and workers. But the gap between CEO and worker retirement benefits is so much wider,” said Sarah Anderson… https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-executives-only-ceos-amass-billions-in-savings-with-top-hat-plans-3c23b5be
Positive aspects of previous session Expiry upward bias kept equities from much larger losses
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds declined Gasoline rallied sharply on buying for the commence of ‘Drive Season’
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How long can equities ignore negative fundamentals?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4195.03 Previous session High/Low: 4412.91; 4180.20
Babylon Bee: To Win Back Old Customer Base, Bud Light Adds Mullets to Cans
@charliebilello: NVIDIA is now trading at 29x sales and 182x earnings. Investors are clearly pricing inenormous growth from AI but are these expectations too high?
Yuval Harari warns humans will be “hacked” if artificial intelligence is not globally regulated “…whenever you increase surveillance of individuals you should simultaneously increase surveillance of the corporation and governments and the people at the top. And the third principle is that– never allow all the data to be concentrated in one place. That’s the recipe for a dictatorship.”… https://www.cbsnews.com/news/yuval-harari-sapiens-60-minutes-2021-10-29/
Mises Institute: In a 2019 TV interview, Harari said: Humans are now hackable animals. You know, the whole idea that humans have this soul or spirit and they have free will. So, whatever I choose, whether in the election or whether in the supermarket, this is my free will. That’s over—free will… https://mises.org/wire/objection-professor-harari-logic-proves-existence-free-will
Can We Hack Humans? Should We? “We humans should get used to the idea that we are no longer mysterious souls. We are now hackable animals,” he told attendees at the 2020 World Economic Forum annual meeting. “By hacking organisms, elites may gain the power to reengineer the power of life itself,” he said two years earlier. “This will be not just the greatest revolution in the history of humanity. This will be the greatest revolution in biology since the very beginning of life 4 billion years ago.” … https://breakpoint.org/can-we-hack-humans/
White House Official: Biden’s Migration Is an Economic Strategy Katie Tobin, the senior director for transborder security on the National Security Council, adding: As our economy grows, we need workers that we just don’t have enough of. So, it is in our interest to bring people in and to stay competitive globally… (But stocks are soaring on AI replacing masses of workers!) https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2023/05/21/white-house-bidens-migration-is-an-economic-strategy/
@AFP: Russia says it has captured the east Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, epicentre of the fighting, as President Vladimir Putin congratulates his troops and private mercenary group Wagner
@WarClandestine: As Bakhmut falls and Ukraine’s air defenses are depleted, you’ll notice Zelensky is STILL not in Ukraine.Since May 3rd, he has been in Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, France, Saudi Arabia, and now off to Japan for the G7 Summi.t He’s hiding.
President Joe Biden announced a new package of military aid to Ukraine and told President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that the United States was doing all it could to strengthen Ukraine’s defense for the war with Russiahttps://t.co/e0HCHlS4iu
@RNCResearch: National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan says, “the Pentagon is conducting a full and thorough investigation” on reports a U.S. drone strike killed an innocent father of ten tending to his sheep and not a “senior al-Qaeda leader,” as they claimed. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1660275273592365058
@michaelpsenger: DeSantis: “The way they weaponized these COVID vaccines was a massive incursion into our freedom… They wanted to deny people the right to put food on their table if they didn’t bend the knee… We can never allow ‘warp speed’ to trump (shot at DJT) informed consent.”https://t.co/Ppsmu0vCmD
There is a possibility that the GOP House will produce a bill that hikes the debt limit to solely pay for existing debt. This is the only thing that Dems hope the 14th Amendment will allow. If default is off the table, the pressure is on Biden’s handlers to display their budget bill/socialist initiatives.
@SpeakerMcCarthy (Saturday evening): The White House is moving backward in negotiations. Unfortunately, the socialist wing of the Democrat Party appears to be in control—especially with President Biden out of the country. President Biden doesn’t think there is a single dollar of savings to be found in the federal government’s budget. He’d rather be the first president in history to default on the debt than to risk upsetting the radical socialists who are calling the shots for Democrats right now.
Biden ad touting personal accountability resurfaces after claiming he’s ‘blameless’ on debthttps://t.co/YAGPtWNWsK
@JonathanTurley: President Biden is continuing to invoke the dubious 14th Amendment claim that he can effectively raise the debt ceiling without congressional approval. It is constitutionally and logically flawed despite growing Democratic support.
Sunday, McCarthy on Fox on Biden: “It seems he wants default more than he wants a deal…and now he wants to change the debate?” Speaker McCarthy also said there are NO plans to meet with Biden right now; and “I’m pessimistic about the current state of negotiations.”
@AP: After a “productive” call on Sunday, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said that he and President Joe Biden will meet on Monday in person to discuss raising the nation’s debt limit
The market expects the Fed to pause at its June 14 soiree; Fed fund futures show an 18% chance of a hike.
@zerohedge: The seasonal adjustment of deposit runs will be the next big scandal. According to the Fed, since the Tax Date there have been $45.4BN in outflows (last 4 weeks) while NSA deposit outflows are $268.5BN, this is a $220BN delta not explained by normal seasonality. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1659667504929570820
Today – With the May expiry manipulation over, headlines and reports about the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling negotiations should impact trading. We don’t have a clue as to how the talks will proceed.
ESMs hit -18.25 at 18.00 ET; they are -1.50 at 21:05 ET on the usual Sunday night buying. The usual suspects are extremely bullish and will buy dips. Nvidia reports results on Wednesday.
Expected econ data: none; St. Louis Fed Pres Bullard 8:30 ET, Fed Presidents Bostic (Atlanta) and Barkin (Richmond) 11:05 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4074; 100-day MA: 4036; 150-day MA: 3986; 200-day MA: 3976 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,193; 100-day MA: 33,350; 150-day MA: 33,216; 200-day MA: 32,771 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
Daily Mail: Biden takes a trip: President, 80, STUMBLES while walking down steps of shrine as G7 leaders wait on him and then leaves their group dinner early (missed NATO dinner) – Earlier in the day, Biden needed guidance when he fumbled for a spot during a photo op with Kishida and their wives… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12102419/Biden-stumbles-going-greet.html
FBI abused surveillance tool against George Floyd protesters, Jan. 6 suspects, filing shows “Chris Wray told us we can sleep well at night because of the FBI’s so-called FISA reforms. But it just keeps getting worse,” said House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan. The FBI violated civil liberties against George Floyd protesters and Jan. 6 participants through the improper use of a surveillance tool,according to a filing from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) unsealed Friday, that undercuts claims by FBI Director Christopher Wray that the bureau had reformed its process for using it… the bureau had improperly made use of the database morethan 278,000 times, including against the aforementioned groups, crime victims, and political donors… https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/fbi-abused-surveillance-tool-against-george-floyd-protesters-jan-6
@Peoples_Pundit: Why Durham didn’t charge anyone: Ideology has effectively broken the jury trial system. @barnes_law and I have done extensive voir dire in these urban metro areas, including DC and NYC. These people all watch MSNBC/CNN etc. and nothing can change their minds. @seanmdav: Durham wrote as much in his report. (DC jury won’t convict Dems & their allies.)
@DavidGiglioCA: The FBI, CIA, DOJ, Hilary Clinton, and the Obama Administration get caught committing a silent coup against a duly elected US President and the best response we get from GOP leaders is for them all to say they are “sorry.” This, not Trump, is why Republicans lose.
@paulsperry_: @petestrzok, the fired FBI official who launched the Crossfire Hurricane investigation & assured his lovebird colleague he would “stop” Trump, also declined to answer Durham’s questions about Crossfire. Oddly, Durham did not issue Strzok a subpoena to compel him to talk. Now you know why @petestrzok has been so smug the past few years during his CNN and MSNBCappearances. He was never really under investigative pressure. Spared a subpoena, he felt safe enough to even slam Durham on the air, essentially flipping off the toothless special counsel…
@CBS_Herridge: Herridge: Critics say the Durham report fell flat. What’s your response?AG Barr: I launched the Durham probe not as a criminal investigation, but to get to the bottom of the whole genesis of the ‘Russiagate’scam and the people who are criticizing it are the people who perpetuated the big lie of Russiagate and advanced that false narrative, peddled it to the American people and did immense damage to our country, to our institutions…” https://twitter.com/CBS_Herridge/status/1659337454145478658
Trump’s former attorney says the former president is “not very honest” https://t.co/6zX5ecmZzj
@elonmusk: The Washington Post has gone from questioning the state to being its propaganda mouthpiece. Pravda would be proud.
@AP: As the nation prepares for the 2024 elections, false claims that the 2020 presidential election was “rigged” continue to thrive on Twitter without being corrected, an analysis shows. @elonmusk: Either back up your claims @AP with actual source data or retract your story
We cannot fathom the hypersensitivity that liberals encourage and promote. Of course, we grew up in the ‘sticks and stones may break my bones, but names will never hurt me’ era.
NYC lost 5.3% of its population — nearly a half-million people — since COVID, with most heading Southhttps://t.co/5ABTVvaQsC
ANITA PADILLA FOX 32 @AnitaPadilla32: Chicago’s migrants still arriving in great numbers. Now, the 12th district station (Chicago Police) on the near West Side is overwhelmed & over capacity, with nearly 100 people sleeping and bathing in dirty station lobby and washrooms. https://twitter.com/AnitaPadilla32/status/1659208994802778113
@seanmdav: A bunch (5) of thugs harassed and threatened a pregnant nurse and then tried to steal her bike. Fixed it for you, you pathetic propagandists.
Receipts show the white hospital worker accused in viral video of trying to steal a Black man’s rental bike paid for it herself, lawyer says – The woman was placed on leave from her job following the incident, which NYC Health + Hospitals — New York City’s public hospital system — called “disturbing.” The hospital said it is investigating what happened. “I’m hoping the employer will not violate her rights and will do what’s right and bring her back at some point,” Marino said, adding that his client plans to sue “against individuals and media organizations who defamed her.” https://www.yahoo.com/news/receipts-show-hospital-worker-accused-170920174.html
@townhallcom: “She’s been called a racist. She’s been called a thief. There are reasons defamation laws exist, and we plan to pursue that.” Lawyer for woman at the center of viral Citi Bike video is planning to sue the media.
The MSM didn’t learn their lesson when they disparaged an anti-abortion teen and they had to settle for defamation, or liberal ideology trumps all!
Jeffrey Epstein Allegedly Threatened Bill Gates Over 2010 Affair with Russian Bridge Player viaWSJ – The Microsoft co-founder met the woman around 2010, when she was in her 20s…The email came after the convicted sex offender had struggled and failed to convince Gates to participate in a multibillion-dollar charitable fund that Epstein tried to establish with JPMorgan Chase. The implication behind the message, according to people who have viewed it, was that Epstein could reveal the affair if Gates didn’t keep up an association between the two men… https://t.co/YSBowkVRaY
@CitizenFreePres: UC Berkeley held a “Black Graduation” today for its non-white students. State-funded segregation in 2023.
Officials investigate mysterious disappearance of 30-Ton shipment of explosive chemicals in California – Ammonium nitrate is commonly used as fertilizer but can also be used as an ingredient in homemade explosives – On April 12, a railcar loaded with 30 tons of the chemical left Cheyenne, Wyoming. However, according to an incident report from Dyno Nobel, when the car arrived two weeks later at a rail stop in the Mojave Desert, it was completely empty… (Just like on Breaking Bad!) https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/officials-investigate-mysterious-disappearance-30-ton-shipment-explosive-chemicals-california.amp
Actor @RealJamesWoods: There is something massive they are hiding. Whenever the left throws up all this chaff, you know there’s something afoot. “Gender” nonsense, trillion dollar “reparations,” all the fake hysteria is designed to distract from something big and truly bad.
Analyst and financial writer John Rubino says this time, the so-called debt ceiling fight could end in a systemic failure. Rubino points out, “In a well-run society, the debt limit would be zero. Governments should not borrow money in the first place. The amount of money we are borrowing is catastrophic. Historians are going to look back at this era, and they are just going to wonder why we allowed it to happen and what were we thinking. We are destroying the global financial system by allowing governments to borrow this much money. The debt limit thing is being called a crisis, and if they let it go too far, it will be a crisis. . . . I think this game of chicken will end in the not-too-distant future, and if it doesn’t, they have an ulterior motive. They want to crash the economy because that achieves something for them. We can speculate about this. The party in power wants to crash the economy, and that is a very dark scenario. . . . They are willing to burn down the world around them to get what they want. Look at Russia-gate and the contents of the Durham Report. The Democrats are willing to do stuff like that. . . . I would not put it past the Democrats to plan and implement it if they think it benefits them.”
The economy is already doing bad and getting ready to tumble. So, why not tank it with a debt ceiling impasse and blame it on the Republicans? Some speculate that is the Dem plan because the Obama/Biden economy is going down anyway.
If the economy sinks low enough, how much money will the Fed print to bail it out. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is already warning there is going to be more bank consolidation. In other words, more banks will be going under. Rubino says that is a huge worry and explains, “The dark part of this scenario is the government has to step in and bail out those little banks. Let’s say it’s a couple of trillion dollars . . . to them, it’s play money . . .but what if the markets look at that and say what happens if all the other sectors blow up and the government has to come up with $10 trillion or $15 trillion? What does that do to the dollar? Then you go from a banking crisis to a currency crisis, which is almost impossible to contain. I think it is completely possible that we go to that next stage.”H
There is much more in the 38-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer John Rubino and his new enterprise called Rubino.Substack.com for 5.20.23.
(Tech Note: If you do not see the video, know it is there. Unplug your modem and plug it back in after 30 sec. This will clear codes that may be blocking you from seeing it. In addition, try different browsers. Also, turn off all ad blockers if you have them. All the above is a way to censor people like USAWatchdog.com.)
After the Interview:
John Rubino is a prolific financial writer, and you can see his work for free at Rubino.Substack.com. There is even more cutting-edge original information and analysis if you subscribe.
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COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis
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