SEPT 5/UNITED STATES WEAPONIZES THE DOLLAR AGAIN CAUSING OUR PRECIOUS METALS TO BE WHACKED AGAIN: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $13.50 TO $1940.70/SILVER CLOSED DOWN 69 CENTS TO $23,54/PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $32.26 TO $933.35 WHILE PALLADIUM FINISHED THE DAY DOWN $10.00 TO $1220.60//GOOD COMMENTARY TODAY BY MATHEW PIEPENBERG//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA: HUNGARY BLOCKS THE LATEST EU ROUND OF MONEY TO UKRAINE//HUGE IMPORTS OF ELECTRICITY INTO GERMANY//NEW LNG AUSTRALIAN STRIKES THREATENS THE EU//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 76 132 C SG AMERICAS 5 323 H HSBC 32 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 18 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 18 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 46 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 661 C JP MORGAN 20 2 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 690 C ABN AMRO 1 726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 2 737 C ADVANTAGE 26 10
TOTAL: 129 129 MONTH TO DATE: 3,544
JPMorgan stopped 2 /128 contracts.
FOR SEPT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2023. CONTRACT: 128 NOTICES FOR 12,800 OZ or .3981 TONNES
total notices so far: 3544 contracts for 354,400 oz (11.0245 tonnes)
FOR SEPT:
SILVER NOTICES: 132 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 660,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2283 for 11,415,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS AT THE SLV// SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ OZ SILVER OUT OF THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 437.891 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG 768 SIZED 289 CONTRACTS TO 129,988 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.20 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A STRONG SIZED 629 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 629 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.20). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 193 CONTRACTS ON BOTH EXCHANGES ALONG WITH HUGE T.A.S.LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE COMEX SESSION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 575 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 14.420 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 35,000 OZ//NEW TOTAL 12.385 MILLION OZ/// / //SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (629CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL 193 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 days, total 1345 contracts: OR 6.725 MILLION OZ (673 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 3.850 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 6.725 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 768 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.20 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 575 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 14.420 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 35,000 OZ E.F.P. TO LONDON /// WE HAVE A SMALL LOSS OF 193 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG 629 CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (629) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 132 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 660,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2763 CONTRACTS TO 439,880 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED: 766 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1763 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $1,00 GAIN IN PRICE//FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING 13.530 TONNES + /A SMALL (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 868 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$1.00 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1597 OI CONTRACTS (4.967 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1166CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 440,646
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 831 CONTRACTS WITH 1997 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 1166 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 831CONTRACTS OR 2.584 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL 868 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1166 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2763) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1597 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 4300 OZ/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 868 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 5865 CONTRACTS OR 586,500 OZ OR 18.242 TONNES IN 2TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2932 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 18.242 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 18.242/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.507% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 18.242 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 768 CONTRACTS OI TO 129,988 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A STRONG 575 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 575and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 575 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 289 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 575 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A SMALL LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 193 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 0.965 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.69 PTS OR 0.69% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 387.25 PTS OR 2.06% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 97.55 PTS OR 0.30% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.12 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.3070 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.3080 /Oil UP TO 85.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 88.36 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2763CONTRACTS TO 439,880 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1,00 ON FRIDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1166 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 1166 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1166 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR TOTAL OF 1597 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1166LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2763 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1,00//FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A SMALL 831 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (13.530) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 13.530 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $1.00) //// BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING A FEW SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 1597 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF FRIDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 4.967 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (12.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 4300 OZ//NEW STANDING 13.530 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $1.00.
WE HAD – REMOVED 766 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1597 CONTRACTS OR 159,700 OZ OR 4,967 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 190,793 poor
final gold volumes/yesterday 169,880 awful//speculators have left the gold arena
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3544 notices 354400 OZ 11.0245 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks: 1318.19o 41 KILOBARS
total withdrawals 1318.190 oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER.
For the front month of SEPTEMBER we have an oi of 934 contracts having LOST 638 contracts. We had
681 contracts were served on FRIDAY, so we gained an additional 43 CONTRACTS or AN ADDITIONAL 4300 oz will stand for delivery in this non active
delivery month of Sept.
Oct lost 954 contracts to 28,106 contracts.
December LOST 1642 contracts down to 378,385 contracts.
We had 128 contracts filed for today representing 12,800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 20 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 128 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3544 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (934 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 128 x 100 oz per contract equals 435,000 OZ OR 13.530 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of SEPT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTcontract month: No of notices filed so far (3544) x 100 oz + (934) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (128) x 100 oz) which equals 435,000 oz standing OR 13.530 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 13.530 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,388,420.269 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10 ,853.948.876 (337.60 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,534,471.393 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,843,355 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 275.06 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
SEPT 5
//2023// THE SEPT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
530,308,190 oz Brinks CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
601,725.160 oz CNT Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
132 CONTRACT(S) (660,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
194 contracts (970,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2283 Contracts (11,415,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposits customer account:
i) Into CNT 600,759.000 oz
ii) Into Delaware 966.16 oz
total customer deposits: 601,725.160 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 138.666 million oz/278.377.218 million = 50.00% of comex .//
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of Brinks 63,295.06 oz
ii) Out of CNT 467,013.130 oz
total 503,308.190 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 44.350 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 278.377 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPT /2023 OI: 326 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 295 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 288
CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY. SO WE LOST AGAIN 7 CONTRACTS OR 35,000 OZ WERE IMMEDIATELY E.F.P’d TO LONDON AS THERE WAS NO METAL OVER HERE FOR THESE GUYS.
OCT GAINED 1 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1146.
NOVEMBER GAINED ITS FIRST 5 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 5
DEC. LOST 744 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 117,840 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 132 for 660,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 89,601 strong
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 63,844. poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2283 x 5,000 oz = 11,415,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (326) and the number of notices served upon today 132x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2023 contract month: 2283 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (326) – number of notices served upon today (132 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 12.385 million oz.
There are 44.350 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES
AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES
AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES
AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7,45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.87 TONNES
AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.63 TONNES
AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.31 TONNES
AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES
AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES
AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES FORM THE GLD /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES
AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES
AUGUST 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES
AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES
AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES
AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $14.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,82 TONNES
JULY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.26 TONNES
JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 890.97 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.459 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.565 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.926 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.106 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.294 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 189,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.281 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 275,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.471 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ
JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ
JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.930 MILLION OZ
JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ
JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/
Rising GDP plus Rising Yields equals A MAJOR Sign of “Uh-Oh”
Matthew Piepenburg September 3, 2023
Have you heard the good news?
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates a 5.9% growth in real GDP for Q3 2023. In nominal terms, we can even boast of an 8.9% surge.
What fantastic news! Growth! Productivity!
This must mean we can all breath a collective sigh of relief as Powell continues his valiant war against inflation as GDP rises, right?
I can almost hear the champagne bottles popping from the Eccles Building to the Bezos-owned Washington Post.
The financial wizards have saved us once again, right?
Wrong.
Oh, so, so, so, so WRONG.
Why?
Debt-Driven Growth is Not Growth, but a Slow Death Trap
As usual, the answer lies in math, history and, of course, THE BOND MARKET.
For years and years, I have tried to make one point (and indicator) almost reflexively clear, namely: The Bond Market Is the Thing.
This is because the bond market reflects debt forces, the most cancerous of all market killers once they metastasize from the acceptable to the fantastical, and the cheap to the unaffordable.
Today, we stare upon the greatest national and global debt bubble in history.
And the cost of that debt is getting higher, not lower.
This should be the key theme of every conversation, but instead, our citizens are arguing over gender neutral bathrooms and exciting politicos (opportunists) scurrying for power like donkeys fighting for hay.
In particular, they just need to consider and understand yields on Uncle Sam’s IOU (with particular emphasis on his 10-Year UST), which tells us the market’s measurement of the cost of debt.
And given that debt is the sole (rotten) wind beneath the wings of the post-08 American dream, when those yields rise like approaching shark fins, we all need to pause and think deeply, realistically and, hence differently from the consensus pablum which currently passes for financial reporting.
The Open Secret Hiding in Plain Sight (Ignored Shark Fins…)
As Luke Gromen has been warning for quite some time, and as my partner, Egon von Greyerz, has been arguing/expecting for even longer, we are now seeing rising yields on the 10Y UST while inflation rates (intentionally misreported) continue to fall—temporarily.
Folks, this is worth understanding. It’s not hard to do. But it’s critical.
That is, we need to understand how scary it is to see GDP rising alongside 10Y Treasury yields.
So, let’s dig in.
Debt-Based Growth is the Oxymoron of, Well…Morons
GDP is rising because government deficit spending (on everything from yet another preventable yet losing war in the Ukraine to stimmy checks for migrants [“asylum seekers”?] pouring through Texas) is rising well beyond sustainable levels.
Near-term, spending always leads to growth. But when that spending is done on a maxed-out national credit card, the short-term growth (i.e., GDPNow forecasts above) come at a comical, yet serious price.
Stated otherwise, spending, even deficit spending, has quick benefits; the debt consequences, and economic pains, however, take longer to show their economic (moronic) effects.
But when they do, the sickening results are as mathematical as they are historical.
A Tale of the Drunk and Stupid
If one, for example, were to hand a college frat boy his rich uncle’s credit card and permit him unlimited credit, that frat boy would undoubtedly throw the kind of seductive campus parties which would ensure his popularity along side many, many weekends of extravagant bacchanalia and a campus filled with smiling, drunk undergrads.
Soon, the frat house would construct its own elaborate bar, with weekly transports of unlimited beer kegs, a billiards room adorned with flat-screen TVs and 24-hour ESPN.
Others, even from universities miles way, would embark upon a joyous pilgrimage, crowding their Friday-night gatherings with shouts of awe and cries for more vodka shots.
The fun would seemingly never end.
Until, that is, the credit card bill came and the rich Uncle was tapped out.
At that point, the frat house’s growth story devolves into a comical escapade of the drunk and the stupid, which effectively describes the profiles and policies of our so-called financial elite.
The DC Frat House
When GDP spikes on the tailwind of deficit spending, the Fed starts to suffer from the beer-goggle effect of blindness to reality.
It then feels even more pressure (or drunken confidence) to raise short-term interest rates, which also sends the USD higher in the near-term but just about everything else (i.e., stocks, bonds, real estate and tax receipts) lower.
This means the risk of a market implosion in a setting of rising GDP increases exponentially, which is precisely what we saw near the end of 2018 when Powell tried to tighten the Fed’s balance sheet and raise rates at the same time.
Net result?
Markets tanked by Christmas, and as the new year rolled in, the Fed was bailing out the repo markets to the tune of hundreds of billions/week and printing inflationary money quicker than Nolan Ryan’s fastball.
Ignored Patterns, Ignorant Polices
But this otherwise ignored pattern, like a fast-ball, is pretty easy to track. The more the Fed hikes rates, the fatter and more expensive are Uncle Sam’s deficits as GDP rises on drunken (deficit) spending.
This leads to a mathematical case of “fiscal dominance,” which even the St. Louis Fed confessed in June (and of which I recently explained here)—namely, the ironic scenario in which the war on inflation (fought with rising rates) actually causes more inflation.
Why?
Because rising rates don’t just stimulate a GDP frat party (as per above), but they make America’s debt costs (interest expenses) skyrocket into the trillion/year category, which can then only be paid by a Fed mouse-clicker, which is the inevitable inflationary consequence of Powell’s deflationary “higher-for-longer” policy.
Stated otherwise, Powell, like Robert E. Lee, Napoleon, Paulus, Westmorland and Zelensky, is fighting a losing war.
Or for you film buffs who recall Maverick “writing checks [his] body can’t cash,” America is issuing IOUs its Treasury Dept. can’t pay—unless, of course, it prints a lot more fake/fiat money.
And those IOUs (i.e., USTs) are rising at a sickening rate, which means bond prices (which move inversely to supply) will fall and yields (which move inversely to price) will rise.
Read that last sentence again. It’s our bond market (and nightmare) in a nutshell.
And when yields on US 10Y USTs rise, the interest expense on Uncle Sam’s $33T bar tab becomes a bayonet wound to the economy and the market.
Horribly, Horrible Bad News
Thus, when we see GPD growth rising at the same time UST supplies (and hence yields) are climbing at a rate not seen in 55 years, this is not good news—it’s horribly, horribly bad news.
Not only are rates rising along side GDP, but our deficits are growing even deeper and hence this vicious circle of debt just gets deadlier and darker.
And this means the need to cover those deficits by printing trillions out of thin air becomes clearer and clearer, which means inflation is no longer a debate, but as fatally foreseeable as Pickett’s failed charge at Gettysburg.
We Need a Bigger Boat
In the coming months, or early into 2024, Egon and I foresee rising US sovereign bond yields and rising rates which will be near-term deflationary for risk assets and disturbing for Main Street economies no longer able to re-finance their way out of a national debt trap.
At some point thereafter, the cost of those debts will demand a monetary response (money printing to the moon) which will be, by definition, inflationary for regular Joes and no help to mean-reverting markets.
In short: We not only see inflation ahead, but stagflation to boot.
In such a setting, the USD, like the stern of the Titanic, will go from rising, and then temporarily pausing, to sinking fast to the bottom.
Again, the bond market is the thing.
Those yields matter. They are the approaching shark fins racing toward our shores which no one wishes to see.
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Important view…
‘Live from the Vault’ reviews huge threat to government’s money monopoly: Valaurum bills
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-09-01 21:52Section: Daily Dispatches
9:53p ET Friday, September 1, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
On this week’s episode of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, London metals trader Andrew Maguire interviews Adam Trexler, founder of Valaurum, the company issuing polymer-coated, gold-containing bills in assorted denominations that put the monetary metal back in circulation in a supremely practical way for people of ordinary means.
Such bills may be the most formidable threat to government’s monopoly on money, and thus they are potentially a powerful weapon of individual freedom.
The interview is bit less than an hour long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
Brazil Displaces US As Corn-Exporter King As Trade Winds Shift
FRIDAY, SEP 01, 2023 – 10:40 PM
It appears that a new world order is emerging, with BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization offering trade alternatives to the hegemonic West. The latest example of a multi-polar world is the US being displaced by BRICS country Brazil as the world’s top corn supplier.
The US held the crown for fifty years as the world’s top corn exporter. A new Blomberg report, citing data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), shows the five-decade reign is over:
In the 2023 harvest year, the US will account for about 23% of global corn exports, well below Brazil’s nearly 32%, US Department of Agriculture data show. Brazil is seen holding onto its lead in the 2024 planting year that begins Sept. 1, too. Only once in data going back to the Kennedy administration did America drop out of first place before: for a single year in 2013 following a devastating drought. The US corn-exporting industry has never before spent two back-to-back years in second place — until now.
It’s not corn. Brazil has also displaced American farmers in both soybean and wheat exports. Bloomberg explained more:
Losing its lead in corn exports may feel familiar to American farmers, who in the last decade have also relinquished the top spot in both soybean and wheat exports. Soy was the first to go, with Brazil definitively taking the lead in 2013. The next year, the US lost its wheat dominance, too, with the European Union, then Russia, beginning to elbow out American farmers in the global market.
The export ag market share slide is troubling news for the domestic industry that exported $200 billion in farm products in 2022. Sliding dominance may suggest that farmer incomes may slide in the years ahead.
Stephen Nicholson, global grains and oilseeds sector strategist with Rabobank, an agricultural lender, told Reuters:
“When we look at US corn demand long term, we wonder where new demand is coming from.
“Brazil is likely taking a bigger share of the global market, ethanol has likely peaked and animal protein is likely not going to grow fast enough.”
The reason for the shift is a rejiggering of China’s ag trade away from the US to Brazil. China signed a deal with Brazil last year to increase gain purchases.
“Brazil has the ability to ramp that planting area up to meet Chinese demand in a way that the United States doesn’t,” said Matthew Roberts, senior grain analyst with consultancy Terrain.
Plus, the Chinese are steering clear of US trade because lawmakers on Capitol Hill have been in a frenzy to weaponize the dollar and trade against Beijing.
“The US reminds me of the frog being slowly boiled,” Ann Berg, an independent consultant and veteran trader who started her career at Louis Dreyfus Co. in 1974, told Bloomberg.
Berg said, “It’s lost its dominance, but it took 40 years.”
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3070
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3080
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.69 PTS OR 0.71%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 387.25 PTS OR 2.06%
2. Nikkei closed UP 97.55 OR 0.30%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.66 EURO FALLS TO 1.0731 DOWN 60 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.647 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.31/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.6055***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.325*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.641…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.908
3j Gold at $1930.75 silver at: 23.50 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 67 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 97.55//
3m oil into the 85 dollar handle for WTI and 88 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 146.35// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.647% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8892 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9543well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.230 UP 6 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.336 UP 5 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.924 UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.79…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 12 BASIS PTS AT 4.5430
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
USA EARLY MORNING REPORT
Futures Slide, Dollar Surges As China Services Unexpectedly Slump
TUESDAY, SEP 05, 2023 – 08:13 AM
Futures are lower, tracking European bourses and Asian markets, but well off session lows as a brief burst of China-linked optimism promptly following a Monday surge in property stocks and hopes of a Chine recovery turned to bust, as China reported the slowest service sector monthly growth so far this according to the August PMI survey, adding to a series of disappointing data. As of 7:50am ET, S&P futures were down 0.1% to 4,517 reversing the 0.2% gain during the Monday Labor Day holiday session; Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.4%. The US currency gained as much as 0.5% against its Group-of-10 peers, touching the highest level since March, sending commodities, gold and bitcoin lower. 10Y Yields are up to 4.22% and once again approaching the key resistance level of 4.25%, pressured not just by oil trading near 2023 highs but also in anticipation of a surge in corporate bond sales this week. Also, UK and euro-zone yields rose Monday and are extending that move. Today’s macro data focus is Durable Goods/Cap Goods plus Factory Orders. Later in the week we receive ISM-Srvcs and Jobless Claims.
In premarket trading, NextGen Healthcare jumped 8% after Bloomberg News reported that Thoma Bravo is in advanced talks to buy the health-records software company. US-listed Chinese stocks dropped following their best weekly performance since July, as August data pointed to a slowdown in China’s services sector. Alibaba -1%, Baidu -1.7%. Blackstone and Airbnb rose after the S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stocks will join the S&P 500 index prior to the opening of trading on Sept. 18. Manchester United fell as much as 9.2% amid ongoing speculation over a possible deal for the Premier League team. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Associated Banc-Corp (ASB US) shares rise as much as 0.6% after Baird upgraded the Midwest bank to outperform from neutral, saying that the shares offer attractive risk-reward following recent underperformance.
Oracle (ORCL US) gains 1.5% after Barclays upgrades to overweight from equal-weight in note, calling the infrastructure software company a “multi-year growth story.”
General Mills Inc. (GIS) slips 0.4% after BNP Paribas Exane analyst Max Gumport cut the recommendation on the packaged-foods company to neutral from outperform, citing a slowdown in premium dog-food demand.
Lowe’s (LOW) recommendation was raised to outperform from market perform at Bernstein, with the broker noting that there are multiple positive catalysts including: margin expansion and improving return on invested capital. Stock edges higher, up 1%.
NetApp Inc. shares are up 1.8% after Susquehanna Financial upgraded the data storage company to positive from neutral.
Olin Corp is upgraded to overweight from sector weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets, which says the stock’s valuation appears attractive after shares tumbled following news that CEO Scott Sutton will step down. Shares in the manufacturer of chemical products and ammunition rise 2%.
Oracle gains 1.7% after Barclays upgrades to overweight from equal-weight in note, calling the infrastructure software company a “multi-year growth story.”
Viatris gains 2% after the firm said the US FDA has tentatively approved a drug cocktail for children with HIV-1.
Overnight, China’s services sector saw the slowest growth this year in August, an industry survey showed, adding to evidence the economic recovery is losing traction and damping earlier optimism over government stimulus.
Similarly in Europe, the composite purchasing managers’ index undershot expectations, posting a contraction for a third straight month.
As we enter Sept, JPM’s market intel team writes that there is much discussion on seasonality; while Sept’s average return is negative, its median return is ~0%. When SPX is update double-digits into Sept, then Sept tends to be positive, too. We may also see a surge of capital markets activity over the next couple weeks.
The European Central Bank, which meets next week, faces a quandary over interest rates, given recession fears and above-target inflation. “There is real concern for the euro-area picture, with survey data suggesting the economy is sliding into recession,” said Sarah Hewin, head of Europe and Americas research at Standard Chartered. “It raises questions over how aggressive the ECB can be going forward.”
By contrast, recent data shows the US economy is holding up well and rate cuts may not come any time soon, even though many economists say the Federal Reserve has come to the end of its 18-month long policy-tightening campaign. Goldman Sachs now sees just a 15% probability of a US recession in the coming year, down five percentage points from their previous estimate.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded flat, after paring a drop of as much as 0.8% with luxury goods among the worst performers. Here are the most notable European movers:
Partners Group rises as much as 8.4% and is the biggest gainer in the Stoxx 600 after the Swiss investment manager delivered performance fees that analysts describe as a material beat
BKW climbs as much as 4.4% after the Swiss energy company reported operating profit for the first half-year that beat estimates, with analysts highlighting positive momentum in the energy division
Johnson Service Group rises as much as 5.5% in 7th straight day of gains, hitting highest since March 22, as RBC highlights good first-half momentum for the UK textile rental and laundry firm
Alten rises as much as 2.8% after Stifel initiates coverage with a buy rating, saying the engineering and technology consulting firm is set for long-term earnings growth
European food retail stocks fall after JPMorgan downgrades the sector, citing an “unattractive risk reward” given the current sentiment as well as valuations
Commerzbank drops as much as 5.2%, the most in a month, after Barclays downgrades to underweight from equal-weight based on “significant” downside risk to estimates
Roche falls as much as 2.2%, slipping to its lowest since January 2019, after Berenberg cut its recommendation for the Swiss pharma giant to hold on a lack of share-price catalysts
Credit Agricole falls as much as 3.8% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to sell from neutral as it turned “more cautious” on the French lender’s earnings expectations
Sectra falls as much as 14% after the Swedish medical imaging and cybersecurity firm reported first-quarter earnings which included a year-on-year fall for operating margins and profit
EnQuest shares drop as much as 17% in their worst day since April 2020, after the oil producer swung to a 1H loss from a profit a year earlier due to the impact of the UK energy windfall tax
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, with the key regional benchmark on track to snap a six-day winning streak, as a property-led rally in Chinese equities fizzled amid disappointing economic data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.8%, dragged by weakness in the financial sector. China equities declined, retreating after Monday’s strong gains as a gauge of services activity printed well below estimates. China led the rally in Asian stocks on Monday after authorities rolled out more stimulus for the embattled property sector. The decline on Tuesday shows investor sentiment toward Chinese shares remains fragile, casting a pall on the outlook for regional equities. Even after its latest rally, the Asian benchmark is trailing key gauges of peers in the US and Europe this year.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured after Chinese Caixin Services PMI data missed forecasts and with the property sector dampened by default fears with about a third of 50 major private builders said to face around $1.5bln dollars of payments this month, while Country Garden narrowly averted a default and paid USD-denominated coupons hours before the end of the grace period.
South Korea stocks traded lower, where inflation accelerated much faster than estimated in August, keeping the door open to a rate hike. Shares also dropped in Australia, where the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged for a third-straight month in a meeting later Tuesday. Vietnamese equities were the only notable gainers following a national holiday.
Australia’s ASX 200 was lower amid underperformance in the commodity-related sectors and as participants braced for the conclusion of RBA Governor Lowe’s final policy meeting in which the central bank kept rates unchanged as expected.
Nikkei 225 stalled on its approach to the 33,000 level and with headwinds from disappointing household spending data which suffered its worst drop since February 2021.
“It’s the typical post-party reality check that’s cooling down China’s rally today, as the services PMI notably missed expectations, suggesting further economic downtrend ahead,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at IG Markets Ltd. “Meanwhile, investors are cautiously awaiting the RBA’s meeting decision, which is poised to raise the curtain for a new round of central bank talks.”
In FX, the US dollar rose to the strongest since July against the euro and the pound. Against the yen, it’s approaching the highest since November, and BOJ intervention is looking increasingly inevitable. The Bloomberg Dollar Index jumped 0.4% to 1250.81, its highest since mid-March as China data pointed to sputtering economic recovery. The US currency posted the biggest gains against the Australian dollar, down 1.3%. Australia’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged and maintained a tightening bias. “With RBA already acknowledging that the economy is already experiencing below-trend growth, surely any further tightening should crimp on growth momentum further down the road,” said Fiona Lim, senior FX strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd. in Singapore. “AUD could still remain under pressure.” EUR/USD fell 0.5% to $1.0747 as data showed consumer inflation expectations rose in July even as demand for services cooled
In rates, treasuries were lower with US 10-year yields rising 4bps to 4.22%. US yields are higher by 3bp-54bp across the curve led by intermediate tenors, leaving curve spreads narrowly mixed, and extending a slide that began Friday in anticipation of a surge in corporate bond sales this week. At least six US high-grade corporate bond issuers have slated offerings for Tuesday; sales are expected to total about $120b this month, a seasonally heavy month that normally sees issuance concentrated in the week or so after US Labor Day. Treasury coupon supply is on hiatus until Sept. 11, when cycle including new 3-year and 10- and 30-year reopenings is slated to begin. Also, UK and euro-zone yields rose Monday and are extending that move. Bunds are also in the red with little reaction shown to a downward revision to euro-area service PMI.
In commodities, crude futures decline, with WTI falling 0.2%. Spot gold drops 0.6%.
Bitcoin is under modest pressure, -0.2%, as the USD continues to climb higher and the overall tone remains a subdued one after the APAC handover. Currently, BTC resides at the mid-point of USD 25.55-25.83k parameters.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the global services and composite PMIs for August, along with Euro Area PPI for July and US factory orders for July. From central banks, we’ll get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey, and hear from the ECB’s Schnabel and Visco.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,515
MXAP down 0.8% to 163.12
MXAPJ down 1.1% to 509.51
Nikkei up 0.3% to 33,036.76
Topix up 0.2% to 2,377.85
Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 18,456.91
Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,154.37
Sensex little changed at 65,687.26
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,314.28
Kospi little changed at 2,582.18
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 455.24
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.59%
Euro down 0.5% to $1.0746
Brent Futures down 0.8% to $88.30/bbl
Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,933.17
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.35% to 104.61
Top overnight news from Bloomberg
Home sales in two of China’s biggest cities soared in the past two days following mortgage relaxations, an early sign that government efforts to cushion a record housing slowdown are helping. Existing-home sales for Beijing and Shanghai doubled over the weekend from the previous one, according to CGS-CIMB Securities. “We were surprised by the strong pick up in Beijing and Shanghai, despite the challenging economy,” said Raymond Cheng, head of China property at CIMB. BBG
Chinese property developer Country Garden made payments on two dollar bonds within their grace periods on Tuesday, ending a month-long saga that had become the focal point of global investors’ concerns about China’s struggling property sector. FT
China’s Caixin services PMI for Aug was very soft, coming in at 51.8, down from 54.1 in Jul and below the Street’s 53.5 forecast. RTRS
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un plans to travel to Russia this month for a meeting with Putin at which the two will discuss Pyongyang ramping its weapons supplies to Moscow. NYT
Ukraine president Zelensky said he was replacing the minister of defense, confirming recent media speculation, in what is the biggest shakeup since Russia launched its invasion. NYT
The world’s most powerful financial watchdog has warned of “further challenges and shocks” in the months ahead, as high interest rates undermine economic recoveries and threaten key sectors including real estate. In his regular update to G20 leaders ahead of their summit in New Delhi this week, Klaas Knot, chair of the Basel-based Financial Stability Board, said: “The global economic recovery is losing momentum and the effects of the rise in interest rates in major economies are increasingly being felt.” FT
The US deficit is climbing, but not for reasons that are inflationary – things like higher interest expense, reduced Fed earnings, and lower non-withheld tax revenue (due to smaller capital gains) are pushing deficits higher. WSJ
Trump’s lead grows more dominant – he’s now the choice of ~60% of GOP primary voters, up 11 points from the prior survey in April. Biden’s age a growing political liability – 73% of voters think Biden is too old for a second term vs. 47% who feel the same about Trump (and Trump has an 11-point advantage on record of accomplishments as president) WSJ
Private equity giant Blackstone Inc. is the latest addition to the S&P 500 Index, the first alternative asset manager to join the equity gauge. Airbnb Inc. is added as well. The New York-based Blackstone and Airbnb will replace Lincoln National Corp. and Newell Brands Inc. prior to the start of trading on Sept. 18, S&P Dow Jones Indices said. BBG
The continued positive inflation and labor market news has led GIR to cut our estimated 12-month US recession probability further to 15%, down 5pp from our prior estimate and equal to the unconditional average recession probability of 15% calculated from the fact that a recession has occurred roughly once every seven years since WW2
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the holiday lull stateside and as the region digested disappointing data releases including the weaker-than-expected Chinese Caixin Services PMI. ASX 200 was lower amid underperformance in the commodity-related sectors and as participants braced for the conclusion of RBA Governor Lowe’s final policy meeting in which the central bank kept rates unchanged as expected. Nikkei 225 stalled on its approach to the 33,000 level and with headwinds from disappointing household spending data which suffered its worst drop since February 2021. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured after Chinese Caixin Services PMI data missed forecasts and with the property sector dampened by default fears with about a third of 50 major private builders said to face around USD 1.5bln dollars of payments this month, while Country Garden narrowly averted a default and paid USD-denominated coupons hours before the end of the grace period.
Top Asian News
China’s MIIT released a plan to develop the electronics industry and will guide capital to the industry, while it will support qualified enterprises to make good use of financing tools such as domestic and overseas listings and bond issuances, according to Bloomberg and Reuters.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang said following the recent meeting with his Italian counterpart that China and Italy should adhere to the right way of getting along in terms of mutual respect, trust, openness and cooperation, while he added that both countries should strive for bilateral relations to be at the forefront of China-EU relations. Furthermore, Wang said they should jointly safeguard a free and open multilateral trading system, maintain a stable global supply chain and provide a fair business environment for each other’s enterprises.
A debt crisis reportedly threatens to engulf Chinese developers with about two-thirds of 50 major private builders defaulters and with the 16 survivors facing USD 1.5bln of bond payments this month, according to Bloomberg.
Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) paid USD-denominated coupons that were due last month before the end of the grace period which was set to expire by September 6th, according to Bloomberg and Reuters.
RBA kept the Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.10%, as expected, while it reiterated that some further tightening of monetary policy may be required and the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target.. RBA higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy and will continue to do so but noted inflation is still too high and will remain so for some time yet. Furthermore, the RBA said the pause will provide further time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook but noted increased uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy due to ongoing stresses in the property market and that the outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain
China is reportedly to launch a new state-backed fund that aims to raise USD 40bln in order to boost the chip industry, via Reuters citing sources. The new fund will focus on areas incl. equipment for chip manufacturing. Fund has received approval from Chinese authorities in recent months. Finance Ministry intends to contribute CNY 60bln to it.
European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, but have been gradually making their way higher after a subdued open given the downbeat APAC handover. A handover that was negatively affected by soft Chinese Caixin PMI data. Since action has been influenced by Final PMIs though the metrics provided little to lift the overall tone with the recovery off lows occurring gradually and without a specific fundamental driver. Sectors are mixed after beginning the morning firmly in the red. Personal Care, Drug & Household names alongside Consumer Products/Services continue to lag given broker activity and data while Financial Services, Energy, Insurance and Banking are now modestly firmer on the session; the latter components perhaps benefitting from yield support. Stateside, futures have been directionally in-fitting with the above though magnitudes have been more contained thus far. ES -0.2% has lifted off of lows with the NQ -0.3% following suit but to a slightly lesser extend given yield upside. Action which comes ahead of Final PMIs and a handful of other data points.
Top European News
ECB’s Lane (conducted on August 31st): I would underline the fact that there has been some easing in goods inflation and services inflation, which is a welcome development. “expect to see this famous core inflation come down throughout the autumn.”; “… it would be a mistake to extrapolate the high inflation we’ve seen into a longer-term projection.”. Click here for the full release.
Spanish Catalan Leader Puigdemont says all judicial cases that are targeting Catalan separatism must be dropped as a condition for discussions on the PMs investiture
FX
A firm start to the session for the Dollar index, fuelled by risk aversion and an overnight uptick in yields, and with US cash yields back online following its long Labor Day weekend.
The Yen is one of the focal points in today’s session as it approaches YTD lows against the Dollar, while the overnight session saw a particularly weak 10-year JGB auction.
The Antipodeans sit as G10 underperformers as the fallout from the softer Chinese Services PMI takes its toll, while the RBA’s policy decision saw no fireworks.
The European majors succumb to the Dollar but to a lesser extent than their Antipodean counterparts. The morning saw the final PMIs in the EZ downgraded, with the broader theme being slower growth and rising input prices.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1783 vs exp. 7.2703 (prev. 7.1786)
World Bank is reportedly in talks to double its Turkey exposure to USD 35bln, according to Bloomberg sources; the World Bank is reportedly working on USD 18bln in new funding over the next three years which will focus mostly on the private sector.
Fixed Income
Core benchmarks are under modest pressure with action occurring around the EZ/regional and UK PMIs but for the most part this has been shortlived as we await the return of US players from the long weekend.
Bunds are softer to the tune of 15 ticks and reside towards the mid-point of 131.61-131.98 boundaries. A high which printed in proximity to the morning’s Spanish Services PMI while the low was re-tested on the Final EZ figure.
Gilts have been slightly more contained given their more outsized action on Monday while USTs are broadly in-line with EGBs ahead of data points. As it stands, yields are firmer across the curve with action slightly more pronounced at the long end and the curve incrementally bear-steepening as a result.
Commodities
WTI and Brent front-month futures are softer intraday amid the broader risk aversion emanating from the Chinese Services PMIs overnight.
Dutch TTF kicked off the session firmer but then fell into losses, with news overnight suggesting Offshore Alliance members at Chevron’s Gorgon Facility, Wheatstone Platform and Wheatstone Downstream gas processing facilities in northwest Western Australia have notified the company that they intend to stop work for 2 weeks commencing September 14.
Metals are seeing broader pressure from the firmer Dollar whilst industrial metals see deeper losses vs precious metals amid the demand dent emanating from China.
Australia’s Offshore Alliance served Chevron (CVX) with further notice of protected industrial action which will commence after the first 7 days of the protected industrial action kicks off on September 7th, while the Australian union said it plans a full strike at Chevron’s Wheatstone and Gorgon LNG facilities in Australia for two weeks from September 14th if its demands are not met, according to Reuters.
Goldman Sachs said it still sees a potentially more aggressive OPEC+ price target as a key moderately bullish risk to its 12-month ahead Brent crude forecast of USD 93/bbl and it no longer expects Saudi to announce a partial unwind of its 1mln bpd production cut, according to Reuters.
Ukraine does not expect its grain export situation to change after the talks between Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan, according to Reuters sources.
Chevron (CVX), on industrial action, says it has continuity plans and plans to be a reliable supplier. Elsewhere, says if the winter is a normal one, then it could be a difficult time for some European nations.
Geopolitics
The Russian Defence Ministry said it shot down a drone over Russia’s Kaluga region,** according to Reuters.
North Korean leader Kim plans to travel to Russia this month and meet Russian President Putin to discuss the possibility of supplying weapons for the war in Ukraine, according to NYT citing US and allied sources. In response, the Russian Kremlin says it has “nothing to say”.
US Event Calendar
10:00: July Factory Orders, est. -2.5%, prior 2.3%
July Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
10:00: July Durable Goods Orders, prior -5.2%
Durables-Less Transportation, prior 0.5%
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.1%
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.2%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The last 24 hours have been fairly quiet for markets given the US holiday, but the overall tone was slightly negative after what was earlier a very good handover from a strong China market on Monday. However this faded as the day progressed with losses for bonds and equities in Europe, just as oil prices hit a new high for 2023. The recent run-up in oil prices is already setting us up for some hotter August CPI prints, so any further gains there are going to be a fresh hurdle for central banks in their quest to get inflation back to target.
That concern was evident among sovereign bonds, which sold off mainly thanks to higher inflation expectations. For instance, the 10yr bund yield was up +3.1bps on the day to 2.57%, of which +2.5bps was a result of higher inflation expectations. Yields moved higher in other countries as well, with those on 10yr OATs (+2.8bps), BTPs (+5.4bps) and gilts (+3.5bps) all rising.
Unsurprisingly, that rise in inflation expectations led to a bit more speculation about whether the ECB might deliver another hike next week. Currently, overnight index swaps still consider that an unlikely prospect and are pricing in a 25.7% chance, but that’s up from 23% the previous day, so clearly investors aren’t entirely discounting the prospects of another move.
When it comes to that meeting, ECB President Lagarde provided no clues on what the ECB might do in a speech yesterday. That focused on communication and monetary policy, although Lagarde did say “actions speak louder than words” and referenced the 425bps of hikes that the ECB had already delivered. If they were to pause, that would end a run of 9 consecutive rate hikes, so it could be a big moment. However, markets think there’s also a decent probability they might do a “skip” like the Fed did in June, since they’re also pricing in a 50% chance of a hike by the time of the December meeting.
This backdrop saw European equities lose ground throughout the session, despite a fairly strong performance at the open. Indeed, the STOXX 600 was initially up +0.88%, with China related stocks in the ascendency. These gains were pared back with the index ending the day -0.04% lower. It was a similar story across the continent, with modest losses for the FTSE 100 (-0.16%), the CAC 40 (-0.24%) and the DAX (-0.10%) as well. US markets were closed yesterday, but S&P 500 (-0.17%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.11%) futures have edged lower overnight. 10yr USTs yields (+3.15bps) have edged up trading at 4.21% as trading has resumed.
The other big development yesterday came from oil prices, which hit a new closing high for 2023. The latest moves saw Brent crude up +0.51% yesterday to $89.0/bbl, whilst WTI is up +0.47% this morning trading at $85.95/bbl as we go to press. The last time Brent traded above $90/bbl was last November, and even a temporary uplift could prove challenging for policymakers and markets, since inflation is still running above target. So any pivot away from restrictive policy is going to be hard so long as it remains there, and it’s going to heighten the dilemmas they might face if we do end up with a noticeable downturn in growth.
Asian equity markets are lower this morning reversing some of yesterday’s gains. Chinese equities are leading losses with the Hang Seng (-1.55%) the biggest underperformer followed by the Shanghai composite (-0.63%) and the CSI (-0.57%). The Nikkei (-0.21%) and the KOSPI (-0.12%) are also slightly lower as I type.
Coming back to China, services sector activity expanded at the slowest pace in eight months as the Caixin/S&P Global services PMI dropped to 51.8 in August (v/s 53.5 expected) from 54.1 in July, bringing it more in line with the official services PMI.
In company news, China’s former largest builder Country Garden managed to avoid default by paying $22.5 million of US bond interest due on August 07, just within a 30-day grace period ending. It’s also looking to extend the principal of 8 Yuan bonds by 3 years. So they are obviously doing what they can to avoid default.
In monetary policy action, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 4.1% for the third straight month with the statement seemingly very similar to last month. It is the last meeting chaired by RBA governor Philip Lowe, whose seven-year term ends next week.
Elsewhere, household spending in Japan (-5.0% y/y) posted its biggest decline in nearly 2.5 years in July, sliding for the fifth consecutive month and worse than market expectations of -2.5% and against the prior month’s -4.2%. South Korea CPI reaccelerated in August after six months of cooling, coming in at +3.4% y/y in August (v/s +2.9% expected; +2.3% in July) on the back of upside surprises coming from fresh food and energy.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the global services and composite PMIs for August, along with Euro Area PPI for July and US factory orders for July. From central banks, we’ll get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey, and hear from the ECB’s Schnabel and Visco.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/
Soft Chinese data impacts sentiment, DXY bid & US yields elevated – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, SEP 05, 2023 – 06:31 AM
European bourses/US futures are subdued as soft Chinese data weighs on sentiment, though equities are off lows as the US returns
DXY continues to climb with risk-aversion and accompanying yield upside fuelling the strength, Antipodeans lag given the China data while the RBA was as-expected
Core fixed benchmarks are in the red with action occurring around the EZ/regional and UK PMIs but for the most part this has been shortlived; US yields bid across the curve
Energy is softer intra-day as sentiment takes its toll while both precious and base metals are dented by the USDs upside
Looking ahead, highlights include US IBD/TIPP & Durable Goods, Speech from ECB’s Schnabel & de Guindos
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LABOR DAY RECAP
APAC stocks traded mostly higher led by strength in China’s property sector; shares in developer Country Garden Holdings surged by a double-digit percentage after it made a payment on a ringgit-denominated bond and won approval to extend its onshore private bond maturity by three years, while President Xi had also pledged to widen market access for the service industry and promote cross-border service trade.
European bourses began the day firmer, given the above handover, but gradually faded from best throughout the session with catalysts light and the schedule limited aside from ECB speak whereby Lagarde focused her remarks on communication; Centeno spoke and said inflation is slowing much faster than it rose, and there is a risk of “doing too much” on rates.
USD was generally soft but with ranges tight and G10s generally benefitted in the limited newsflow.
Fixed income benchmarks were under modest pressure with Gilts underperforming ahead of numerous BoE speakers on Wednesday and key data in the sessions thereafter; USTs were incrementally lower but with volumes particularly thin.
Energy benchmarks were in close proximity to the unchanged mark for much of the session, though a slight negative bias was present at times; the focus for the space was on any scheduling update for the week’s expected OPEC update. Industrial metals failed to benefit from the firmer APAC handover and specifically the Chinese optimism.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, but have been gradually making their way higher after a subdued open given the downbeat APAC handover.
A handover that was negatively affected by soft Chinese Caixin PMI data.
Since action has been influenced by Final PMIs though the metrics provided little to lift the overall tone with the recovery off lows occurring gradually and without a specific fundamental driver.
Sectors are mixed after beginning the morning firmly in the red. Personal Care, Drug & Household names alongside Consumer Products/Services continue to lag given broker activity and data while Financial Services, Energy, Insurance and Banking are now modestly firmer on the session; the latter components perhaps benefitting from yield support.
Stateside, futures have been directionally in-fitting with the above though magnitudes have been more contained thus far. ES -0.2% has lifted off of lows with the NQ -0.3% following suit but to a slightly lesser extend given yield upside. Action which comes ahead of Final PMIs and a handful of other data points.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
A firm start to the session for the Dollar index, fuelled by risk aversion and an overnight uptick in yields, and with US cash yields back online following its long Labor Day weekend.
The Yen is one of the focal points in today’s session as it approaches YTD lows against the Dollar, while the overnight session saw a particularly weak 10-year JGB auction.
The Antipodeans sit as G10 underperformers as the fallout from the softer Chinese Services PMI takes its toll, while the RBA’s policy decision saw no fireworks.
The European majors succumb to the Dollar but to a lesser extent than their Antipodean counterparts. The morning saw the final PMIs in the EZ downgraded, with the broader theme being slower growth and rising input prices.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1783 vs exp. 7.2703 (prev. 7.1786)
World Bank is reportedly in talks to double its Turkey exposure to USD 35bln, according to Bloomberg sources; the World Bank is reportedly working on USD 18bln in new funding over the next three years which will focus mostly on the private sector.
Core benchmarks are under modest pressure with action occurring around the EZ/regional and UK PMIs but for the most part this has been shortlived as we await the return of US players from the long weekend.
Bunds are softer to the tune of 15 ticks and reside towards the mid-point of 131.61-131.98 boundaries. A high which printed in proximity to the morning’s Spanish Services PMI while the low was re-tested on the Final EZ figure.
Gilts have been slightly more contained given their more outsized action on Monday while USTs are broadly in-line with EGBs ahead of data points. As it stands, yields are firmer across the curve with action slightly more pronounced at the long end and the curve incrementally bear-steepening as a result.
WTI and Brent front-month futures are softer intraday amid the broader risk aversion emanating from the Chinese Services PMIs overnight.
Dutch TTF kicked off the session firmer but then fell into losses, with news overnight suggesting Offshore Alliance members at Chevron’s Gorgon Facility, Wheatstone Platform and Wheatstone Downstream gas processing facilities in northwest Western Australia have notified the company that they intend to stop work for 2 weeks commencing September 14.
Metals are seeing broader pressure from the firmer Dollar whilst industrial metals see deeper losses vs precious metals amid the demand dent emanating from China.
Australia’s Offshore Alliance served Chevron (CVX) with further notice of protected industrial action which will commence after the first 7 days of the protected industrial action kicks off on September 7th, while the Australian union said it plans a full strike at Chevron’s Wheatstone and Gorgon LNG facilities in Australia for two weeks from September 14th if its demands are not met, according to Reuters.
Goldman Sachs said it still sees a potentially more aggressive OPEC+ price target as a key moderately bullish risk to its 12-month ahead Brent crude forecast of USD 93/bbl and it no longer expects Saudi to announce a partial unwind of its 1mln bpd production cut, according to Reuters.
Ukraine does not expect its grain export situation to change after the talks between Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan, according to Reuters sources.
Chevron (CVX), on industrial action, says it has continuity plans and plans to be a reliable supplier. Elsewhere, says if the winter is a normal one, then it could be a difficult time for some European nations.
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.69 PTS OR 0.69% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 387.25 PTS OR 2.06% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 97.55 PTS OR 0.30% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.12 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.3070 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.3080 /Oil UP TO 85.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 88.36 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
HUNGARY/EUROPE/UKRAINE
As the EU pushes another $5 billion in annual Ukraine raid, Hungary says no!
(zerohedge)
As EU Pushes Massive $5BN In Annual Ukraine Aid, Hungary Blocks Latest Round Of Funding
SATURDAY, SEP 02, 2023 – 08:45 AM
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has laid out a plan for the bloc to reach whopping $5 billion in weapons transfers to Ukraine annually for the next four years.
At a meeting of EU defense ministers in Spain this week, Borrell has been urging member states to contribute toward reaching this target, which also includes an EU-sponsored training program with its own ultra-ambitious goal of training some 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers by year’s end.
He said in statements issued Wednesday that the EU mission “has already trained 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers — some of them here, in Toledo, thanks to the Spanish army.”
It “will reach the objective, which was programmed for the end of the year, at the end of October, [when] we will have reached the 30,000 soldiers trained by this mission,” he detailed, before unveiling a new target: “I proposed to the ministers to raise the objective of the mission to 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers trained by the end of the year.”
All of this comes at a moment of near universal acknowledgement in the West that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is currently failing or at least stalled and disappointing. And because of this, there are growing calls even from within establishment sources – such as RAND Corporation – that serious diplomacy and ceasefire negotiations should be given a chance.
But Borrell’s immense funding and training goals for Ukraine are already being hampered by the longtime thorn in the side of EU technocrats – namely, Viktor Orban’s Hungary:
The EU has been unable to release €500 million in ‘European Peace Facility’ funding for Ukraine, due to opposition from one of the members, the bloc’s foreign policy commissioner Josep Borrell told reporters on Thursday. The country was later identified as Hungary.
“I have to regret that the 8th tranche of the European Peace Facility (EPF) is still blocked,” Borrell said after an EU ministerial meeting in Toledo, Spain. “I hope we will be able to unblock [it] in the next [few] weeks. But this is a problem that is still pending to be solved.”
Hungary has at this point blocked the EPF funds for months. Budapest has explained that this is in large part due to Kiev’s own efforts to punish a major Hungarian bank.Image: Shutterstock
Ukrainian media has itself highlighted the following in the continued standoff between the EU and the Orban government:
Hungary opposes the allocation of the next tranche of €500 million from the European Peace Fund to EU member states due to Ukraine’s inclusion of the Hungarian OTP Bank in the list of “war sponsors”.
The European Peace Fund, established in 2021, is an extra-budgetary instrument of the EU aimed at improving the EU’s ability to prevent conflicts and build peace. EU countries receive compensation for military assistance delivered to Ukraine from this fund.
In July, Hungary opposed the EU’s attempt to create a long-term fund of up to €20 billion to support the Ukrainian army.
Borrell has by end of this week signaled that most EU members are on board in terms of the massive commitment for new Ukraine aid and training, but clearly things are set up for a long-haul fight with Hungary amid threats and counter-threats.
Meanwhile, in a wide-ranging new interview this week with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, PM Orban explained why the more money-more weapons approach is a losing proposition, and that the West needs to pursue peace at all cost. “The Russians are far stronger, far more numerous than the Ukrainians,” the Hungarian leader told Carlson. “Call back Trump. … Trump is the man who can save the Western world.”
END
GERMANY
German electricity imports have now hit new records due to nuclear phase out.
(ReMix)
German Electricity Imports Hit New Record As Nuclear Phase-Out Increases Production Cost
Despite closing its nuclear power plants to focus on renewable energy production, more than a fifth of imported electricity last month was produced from nuclear power…
Germany is importing more electricity than ever before after purchasing a record 6,505 gigawatt hours from abroad in August, according to the Federal Network Agency.
The federal government has replaced much of the electricity produced by its recently closed nuclear power stations with imported electricity, almost half of which was ironically produced using nuclear power and fossil fuels.
This resulted in a significant electricity trade balance deficit, with the country importing €557 million worth of electricity more than it exported to its EU neighbors last month.
Electricity imports typically occur through the construction of transmission lines or undersea cables that connect power grids across national borders. The energy can be generated from various sources including hydroelectric, nuclear, fossil fuels such as gas and coal, or renewable energy.
And despite the German federal government seeking to prioritize renewable energy sources to generate power, evidenced by its policy decision to shut down the country’s remaining nuclear power plants earlier this year, 21 percent of the imported electricity last month was generated by nuclear power and 28 percent was generated by burning coal and gas, according to the Bild newspaper.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz sought to play down concerns over rising imports back in July, claiming that “every year there are phases in which we buy electricity from other countries.”
However, electricity imports into Germany have increased significantly since the closure of the country’s nuclear power plants on April 15.
As Tim Meyerjürgens, the managing director of transmission system operator Tennet, explained, the rising imports don’t necessarily imply that Germany isn’t capable of generating enough electricity itself, but they do “say something about the price of production,” namely that is has become more expensive.
Following the nuclear phase-out, much of Germany’s electricity has been produced through natural gas and coal-fired plants when renewable energy production hasn’t been viable.
“These are often more expensive than renewables and nuclear power abroad,” Meyerjürgens explained, implying that the federal government is approving imports of nuclear-produced electricity when it could have simply produced this itself with domestic nuclear plants at a cheaper rate.
The eurozone economic figures show the risk of stagflation, and the short-term impact is clear in Germany and France, but it extends to the rest of the countries.
Why has the eurozone lagged the United States and other developed economies in recent years? The enormous stimulus packages, including the 2009 Growth and Job Plan, the Juncker Plan, the New Green Deal, and the Europe Next Generation, are proving that central planning only delivers poor growth, elevated debt, and now high inflation.
The ECB’s latest figures show that monetary aggregates are starting to moderate, but inflation remains high and, in the latest print, is rising.
Consensus estimates of GDP growth in 2023 stand at 0.6% with inflation above 5%, according to Bloomberg, and it is important to remember that core inflation continues to be three times higher than the target of price stability.
Lagarde’s inflation messages seem clear, but the ECB’s target must be met. and interest rate increases are here to stay, although the market estimates that the ECB will start lowering interest rates by 2024. The problem is that the eurozone is only betting on rate hikes to moderate inflation, while governments continue to spend billions of euros on so-called Next Generation Funds and deficits that mean more inflation or taxes in the future.
We should not be surprised that credit in the eurozone is falling along with monetary aggregates. The entire burden of monetary normalization is falling on the productive sector, families, and businesses, while many governments continue to increase deficit spending.
The figures for growth in the eurozone are very poor, but they are even worse when we take into account that Ireland’s progress, as shown by Eurostat, almost entirely explains the most recent upward revision. What does the eurozone do? Instead of incentivizing the economic freedom model, it subsidizes the intervened ones.
The economy is expected to grow slightly in 2023, plagued by high inflation, rising interest rates, and lower exports. The Next Generation funds have no discernible marginal or multiplier effect.
The weak state of manufacturing and service indices confirms this fear. PMIs show a widespread negative trend in new orders and investment.
Hiking rates is not enough when the ECB’s balance sheet is 52% of GDP. Harmonized inflation fell to 5.3% in July from 5.5% in June, due to the base effect and the decline in commodities. However, commodities have been bouncing since May, when the market started discounting the end of rate hikes.
We cannot ignore the fact that the data on eurozone inflation expectations is rising and is at its peak in 2018.
The ECB raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.25% from 4.00%, a cumulative increase since July 2022 of 425 basis points. I believe it will end in 2023 at 4.43% and in 2024 at 3.68%, but without finishing the inflation battle.
Despite trillions in deficit and growth central plans, the eurozone faces an environment of poor growth and high inflation with strong headwinds, led by an increase in energy costs and the lagging effect that rising rates can generate, as interest rate increases do not show their full effect on the economy until 12–18 months after they are completed, according to the ECB’s estimates.
We would also remember the EU’s technological problems. While the US and China are leading global technological advances, it seems that the European Union has lagged in growth and investment, but above all in patents and technology companies. The EU does not have technology giants that can challenge the global leaders, and one of the factors that worries us most is the very high level of taxation. It works against the opportunities for creating world-class tech giants.
According to the European Commission itself, taxation in Europe remains at a very high level for capital (27.8%) and labor (21%), two key factors for the development of technology companies. Such high taxation jeopardizes innovation, the attraction of investment, and the improvement of human capital.
If there is a lesson for the United States and the rest of the world, it is that massive central planning does not deliver growth and that governments do not lead economic development and innovation. The eurozone would benefit from a supply-side, bottom-up approach to the economy. Unfortunately, it is doubling down on central planning.
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Robert H/two commentaries
Myths and Realities of the Russian/NATO NCO Systems
In the Coming days and weeks of the month of September you will see a major assault by the Ukrainians in the south which will be met by Russian Defense forces operating in small units. Repeatedly I have cautioned and written how Ukrainians are being mass slaughtered. And this time it will be no different… the casualties will be in the tens of thousands. This will likely be the last attempt by the Ukrainians to force any sort of movement on the battlefield.
The take away from this article is it simply the Russians have technology and have adapted to realities of the technology that they have and have learned the concept of decentralization. Battlefield tactics today with modern day weapons work best on a decentralized level not on the centralized command level.
The same existing business decentralization is a fact not a fiction no matter how much the centralized command structure of finance in the world and control objects. This will be the Break of the financial system on a tactical level because of its’ own inability to adjust to realities. Even as we watch the move of the BRICS and the SCO and other such formations, the reality of the world is that it becoming decentralized not only on a trade level but on a financial settlement level. This flies against the desired centralized control of a single currency or single hegemon.
This is where the world is today in both countries and companies have no choice but to chart individual paths in waters that are uncharted and with limited horizontal views of what is beyond the horizon.. any real control is truly in the realm of chaos of uncharted pathways. This works against the current established norms and will be the downfall of many governmental structures and alliances.
The win for humanity in this and prosperity of a new future lies in the fact That out of chaos in uncharted unmapped pathways will come a new order that is built upon new concepts and new relationships that adapt the realities of the time. This is perhaps with the most exciting times in modern human history as over the next 2 to 3 decades everything we do and have known will have changed .
Simplicius The Thinker’s Lyceum <simplicius76@substack.com> Date: September 2, 2023 at 11:58:21 PM EDT
end
Ukrainian Military Casualties Above 5,600 Over Past Week – MoD – Sputnik International, 01.09.2023
There is no way Ukraine can sustain such losses. It is why they are forcibly enlisting young boys going to university and old men where ever they can find them. With Hungary vetoing the sending of more money to Ukraine until Zelensky accounts for a missing 60 billion + Euro’s the end in in sight for this laundry machine. And in America growing issues will cut off unlimited money which will collapse the place. It is why many politician will resign having stuffed their pockets with cash. The later part of this month promises to be turbulent
Zelensky sacks defense minister in biggest shake up since the beginning of the war. As I have stated, Ukraine is losing badly
(zerohedge)
Zelensky Sacks Defense Minister In Biggest Shake-Up Since War’s Start
MONDAY, SEP 04, 2023 – 08:05 AM
After days of rumors and speculation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that he is replacing Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, which comes at a moment of the faltering counteroffensive, and amid a corruption probe into defense ministry purchases and potential diversion of state funds.
“Reznikov has gone through more than 550 days of full-scale war. I believe that the ministry needs new approaches and other formats of interaction with both the military and society at large,” Zelensky announced Sunday evening.
He said that he’s tapping the head of Ukraine’s State Property Fund Rustem Umerov as a replacement to the top defense post. Reznikov had been at the helm through a year-and-a-half since the Russian invasion.
Without doubt, it constitutes the most significant shake-up in Ukraine’s government and military since the war’s start. Reznikov confirmed Monday that he has formally submitted his resignation, and he’s expected to be appointed to a prime diplomatic post, such as the ambassador to the UK.
Reznikov said back in January 2023, “We are carrying out NATO’s mission today. They aren’t shedding their blood. We’re shedding ours. That’s why they’re required to supply us with weapons.” His face and words have been frequently featured in international reports on how the war effort is going, often standing beside Zelensky.
Another controversial statement of his came in July 2022, when he said, “We are interested in testing modern systems in the fight against the enemy, and we are inviting arms manufacturers to test the new products here.” He’s been seen as instrumental in getting Western governments, especially the US and UK, to fork over tens of billions of dollars in defense aid, including M1 Abrams and other tanks. He has said this is vital for the defense of Ukraine as a “de facto” NATO member.
But he’s also long angrily complained that Ukraine’s arsenal is ‘almost exhausted’ and has been constant in demanding more quantities of advanced weapons from Western partners, but especially artillery shells to face down Russia’s superior firepower on the front lines.
Days prior to his stepping down Monday, Bloomberg wrote that Reznikov has been front and center in an anti-graft probe, citing local Ukrainian media:
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s anti-graft crackdown is fueling speculation that he may dismiss Ukraine’s defense minister following accusations of corruption linked to procuring military supplies.
The Ukrayinska Pravda newspaper, citing sources it didn’t name, said on Thursday Minister Oleksii Reznikov may be replaced as early as next week. The report followed accusations from anti-corruption activists and media that under his leadership the ministry has purchased food and uniforms at inflated prices. It also coincides with comments from a lawmaker that Reznikov may be shifted to the post of Kyiv’s ambassador to the UK.
High-ranking military officers and Kiev officials have for months come under scrutiny for driving expensive luxury cars and acquiring expensive villas. Separately, the Ministry of Agriculture has also recently been under for inflated pasta purchases, which caused a reported loss for state coffers of at least $1.7 million, and triggering suspicions that corrupt officials lined their pockets. This seems to be a theme in what has for years been ranked as Europe’s most corrupt country.
END
ROBERT H
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Παγκόσμιο σοκ προκαλεί ο Ζελένσκι: Eπιστρατεύει οροθετικούς, άτομα με νευροεκφυλιστικές ασθένειες και ψυχικά νοσήματα- Ζητά πίσω 160.000 πρόσφυγες – WarNews247
This is not good: It will bring Poland into the conflict
Robert h:
Ukraine plays its last card: Changes the Constitution to accommodate Polish bases – French Media: “Military Corps from Lithuania-Poland enters the war”! – WarNews247
Is this how the conflict widens? Russia has been holding back in Ukraine with at least 300,000 trained troops on the ready and well equipped. Another 420,000 will be added by year’s end under contract. Great numbers of new drones in thousands are being manufactured and sent to positions and are not currently being used saved for future purpose. 60 kilometer Lancet drones lie in storage and are added to daily. Zelensky is desperate as are his enablers. And soon a cold winter beckons to hold court over folly of decisions not practical. The only question is how many more people will die for lies and greed? And in Russia a growing number of young people are asking if the capital of Russia should not be moved to its’ place of birth, Kiev. Because it moved from Kiev to St. Petersburg and then to Moscow. As old memories of the Kievan Rus stir in minds of Russians who have been taught that historically this was the birth place of Russia. Many Ukrainians also know that Kiev was the birth place of Russia and not Ukraine. Ukraine was borne on the bad lands or steppes north of Crimea which at that time was controlled by Turkey who lost it in a war with Russia. It was Russian blood that paid for its conquest making mockery of those parties trying to deny history its’ place.
The US and Israel will simulate striking Iranian nuclear facilities as part of a series of joint military exercises that will be held in the coming months, The Times of Israel reported Wednesday, citing Israeli TV.
Back in January, the US and Israel conducted the Juniper Oak exercises, which were the largest-ever joint drills between the two nations. The Israeli military said Juniper Oak was just the first of a series of drills that the US and Israel will hold this year.File image: Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)
Israel’s Channel 12 reported one of the upcoming drills would simulate Israel facing a multi-front missile attack that will involve the US deployment of Patriot missile systems. Another drill will rehearse a joint US-Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
The plan to simulate attacks on Iran has not been publicly confirmed by the US or Israel, but the two nations have previously rehearsed bombing Iran, including during drills that were held over the Mediterranean Sea in November 2022.
While nuclear facilities would be the target in the simulated drills, there’s no sign Iran is looking to build a nuclear weapon, which was affirmed by a recent US intelligence report.
Often missing from the conversation about Iran’s civilian nuclear program is the fact that Israel has a secret nuclear weapons program and an arsenal of nukes that the US does not acknowledge exists.
The report comes amid heightened tensions between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf. The US seizure of a tanker carrying Iranian oil in April provoked two Iranian tanker seizures, and the US responded by beefing up its military presence in the region.
END
TURKEY/RUSSIA
The new grain deal is essential but the West will not relent on sanctions with respect to agricultural productions and the re instatement of Swift on Russia’s largest arigcultural bank
(zerohedge)
Putin Tells Erdogan Russia Will Rejoin Grain Deal If Sanctions Eased, SWIFT Reconnected
TUESDAY, SEP 05, 2023 – 10:35 AM
Monday’s meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to produce little of significant substance, but Putin took the opportunity to make his demands known as Turkey is attempting to restore the original UN-backed Black Sea Grain Initiative deal.
Putin laid out that his country would would be fine with returning to the deal if sanctions against Russia’s agricultural industry are lifted. “I would like to confirm again our position of principle: we will be ready to consider the opportunity of reviving the grain deal. I told [Erdogan] today again, and will do this immediately after all arrangements set in it on lifting of restrictions on Russian agricultural exports are fulfilled,” Putin said following dialogue with the Turkish leader in Sochi.Image via AP
Crucial to this, and key to the demand, is to have the Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) reconnected to the SWIFT payment system. This was mentioned days ago when it was revealed there’s a new UN proposed package on the table, still under negotiation.
Sources in Turkey’s Anadolu said among the most important elements of the package include “the connection of the European subsidiary of the Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) to the SWIFT system and the unblocking of frozen assets of Russian companies producing fertilizers in Europe.” This would also involve the necessary of lifting of restrictions on ship insurance and access to currently banned ports.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova issued a weekend statement saying, “The new package of UN proposals regarding the ‘grain initiative’ provides for the reconnection of Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT and the unfreezing of assets of Russian companies… Earlier, all this was also ‘conditional’, but it never came into effect.”
But all of the above, particularly easing SWIFT restrictions, would require definitive action on the part of the United States and its allies, which is unlikely in the wake of Russia’s now weekly bombings of Ukrainian ports and oil and grain storage facilities, particularly on the Danube near NATO-member Romania. Additionally, America is helping Kiev to set up alternate shipping of exports, chiefly through the maritime territory of nearby Romania and Bulgaria.
Still, Erdogan sounded optimistic coming out of the talks with Putin in Sochi, telling the media he expects a resolution soon. “As Turkey, we believe that we will reach a solution that will meet the expectations in a short time.”
The two sides did appear to reach a limited short-term deal for Russia to send one million tons of grain to Turkey for processing and export to poorer nations. Putin said he would given this grain to needy populations for free.
6.GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
end
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
the return to a mask mandate is sparking uproars and theats that they will not comply
(Phillips/EpochTimes)
“Screw Your Face Diapers!!” Mask Mandate Return Sparks ‘We Will Not Comply’ Trend
Notably, former President Donald Trump released a video addressing “every COVID tyrant who wants to take away our freedom.”
“Hear these words: We will not comply. So don’t even think about it,” he said. “We will not shut down our schools. We will not accept your lockdowns. We will not abide by your mask mandates and we will not tolerate your vaccine mandates.”
“Amen, Mr. President. WE WILL NOT COMPLY!” wrote Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake on X, or Twitter.
While the former president had no authority to issue lockdowns, officials under his administration came up with national guidelines in early 2020—when the virus first arrived on U.S. soil—in a bid to deal with COVID-19. Later in 2020, President Trump declared that he opposes lockdowns and mandates, saying that “lockdowns are killing countries all over the world” and called on “Democrat governors” to “open up” their states.
“Just a reminder. We will not comply. Ever again. Screw your face diapers!! #masks,” wrote Fox News’ Tomi Lahren days before on X.
Former “Saturday Night Live” actor Rob Schneider had a similar message as an Atlanta college confirmed it would reinstate masking. “Regarding your precautionary mask mandate… I have a precautionary Foot I’d like to shove up your [expletive]! But don’t worry, it’s just for the next 14 days! For your own protection! Ps. Students WAKE UP, SHEEPLE! SAY NO!” he wrote.
“We will not adhere to lockdowns. We will not submit to mandates,” wrote Dr. Simone Gold, the head of anti-mandate America’s Frontline Doctors.” “We will not wear masks. We will not close down schools. We will not comply to COVID tyranny.”
Conservative journalist Kyle Becker added that people should “make it clear” to businesses that implement mask mandates that “they will not only lose your business but that of anyone you know Put the word out: We will not comply.”
Reinstated Mandates
The anti-mandate messaging comes as some hospitals in several states have moved to reinstate mask mandates, although some have only made it mandatory for doctors, nurses, and staff. But some have forced the rule on patients and visitors, too.
This week, Samaritan Health Facilities announced that it would require masking for staff, patients, and visitors. A public relations official with the hospital, Leslie DiStefano, claimed it is being done because “we know is that [masking] absolutely works,” despite hundreds of studies showing otherwise.
Earlier this month, United Health Services in Binghamton, New York, confirmed that it would again require masks for patients, visitors, staff, and doctors. “Because of an uptick in COVID-19 cases, masks are once again required in all clinical areas at UHS Wilson Medical Center, UHS Binghamton General Hospital, UHS Chenango Memorial Hospital and UHS Delaware Valley Hospital, as well as primary and specialty care sites,” United Health Services stated on its website.
The policy, imposed last week, is “in effect immediately for all patients, visitors, employees, medical staff, volunteers, students and vendors.” It added: “Masks are required at nurses’ stations and in conference rooms within clinical departments, including areas where patients register, wait, transport through, or receive testing and care.”
Masks will also be mandated in “common spaces,” the announcement added. That includes hospital lobbies, hallways, stairwells, cafeterias, and patient care units.
Elsewhere in New York, Auburn Community Hospital in Auburn, located upstate, said on Aug. 19, about a month after its previous mask mandate ended, that it would again be requiring masks on-site. That applies to anyone going inside the facility, regardless of vaccination status.
“Face coverings are mandatory inside our facilities, regardless of your immunization status,” the statement reads. “If you do not arrive with one or yours is deemed inappropriate, a mask will be provided to you. It must be worn at all times and must cover your nose and mouth.”
Also in mid-August, University Hospital in Syracuse, New York, reinstated masking for everyone entering the building. The hospital’s mandate was only lifted a few months prior to that, in late April.
Last week, UMass Memorial in Worcester, Massachusetts, again instated its mask policy, but only for staff, doctors, and nurses, according to local reports.
“We have continued to see a dramatic increase in the number of COVID-19 positive employees over the past two weeks, which has led to exposures of both fellow caregivers and patients,” the company said. “In response to this, as a protective measure for our staff and patients, effective immediately we are requiring mandatory caregiver masking for all patient encounters in all licensed clinical areas.”
The college that Mr. Schneider mentioned, Morris Brown College in Atlanta, said in August that it would mandate masks after an uptick in COVID-19 cases on a larger campus in Atlanta where the college is located.
Yahshua’s family believes that the tragedy was “brought about by the sweltering heat.”
Canyon Lake Middle School has a vaccine mandate for children.
The Riverside County Board of Education voted unanimously on August 9, 2022, to require all students enrolled in public schools in the county to be vaccinated against COVID-19. The mandate applies to all students in kindergarten through 12th grade, including those who are homeschooled.
33- year-old Fitness influencer Larissa Borges dies following double cardiac arrest
Larissa Borges, a 33-year-old Brazilian fitness influencer, died on Monday after suffering a double cardiac arrest. Borges was traveling in Gramado, Brazil, on August 20 when she suffered her first cardiac arrest. She was hospitalized and remained in a coma for a week. On August 28, she suffered a second cardiac arrest which led to her death.
Borges was known for her fit and health-conscious lifestyle. She had over 30,000 followers on Instagram, where she shared her fitness journey, healthy recipes and world travel.
Although her vaccination status is unknown, 60% of the population in Brazil is fully vaccinated against COVID-19. There are some restrictions in place for unvaccinated people, such as not being allowed to enter certain businesses or events, and they may be required to quarantine if they travel.
A student pilot at Fort Novosel, Alabama, went into cardiac arrest while flying a helicopter in a low-altitude maneuver on August 18, 2023.
The student pilot was flying a NOE (Nap of the Earth) maneuver, which is a low-altitude flight maneuver used by military aircraft to avoid enemy detection.
denounce, or advise,” Judge Don Willett wrote for a panel that also included Jennifer Walker Elrod and Edith Brown Clement. “The Doctors have plausibly alleged that FDA’s Posts were misguided, wrong
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When Even Germany’s Chancellor Looks Like Blofeld
TUESDAY, SEP 05, 2023 – 10:21 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The market quietly digested US labour market data for most of yesterday’s holiday-thinned session. Some worried the labor market is still too hot, with nominal wage growth of 5% y-o-y (and the UAW asking for 46%) vs. productivity growth that’s negative. Others worried everything is too cold, with a weaker revised payrolls trend and a rise in labour force participation rates to where they were 20 years ago – which happens both when savings are depleted (i.e., immiseration) and when wage growth is strong (i.e., remuneration.) For many, however, it was a Gold-manSachs-ilocks release that said asset markets were just right to keep going up.
Except so did oil: Brent is now close to $90 despite recession looming and the labor market softening. Indeed, throw in that Chinese manufacturing is still expanding even if the Caixin services PMI today slumped back to51.8 from 54.1, and it’s far from clear that the usual narratives of ‘rates fall soon!’ or ‘stocks keep rising!’ still apply. The risk is instead of supply-side stagflation.
Russia and Turkey just failed to thrash out a new Black Sea grain deal; the Financial Times suggests the EU is “poised for a giant leap towards further integration” – and yet also expensive expansion; Indonesia rejected an offer to join the BRICS11, and said it wants to join the OECD; the US looks to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership with Vietnam, adding to renewed ties with the Philippines, and between South Korea and Japan; and China’s Xi won’t attend the G-20 in India, nor perhaps the APEC summit in the US – so much for the good will efforts. Meanwhile, we see that ‘China to Set Up New Agency to Promote Private Sector Growth’ and this “Bureau will track and analyze the state of private business”; and, of course, the state will then allow private businesses to do whatever they decide to, privately(!)
Yes, the Black Sea aside, none of those headlines translate to a direct move in stocks, bond yields, or commodity prices. However, the collective picture suggests structural shifts that carry fat tail risks for markets, as has been made abundantly clear of late (i.e., Brexit, Ukraine, China’s ‘common prosperity’).
Sometimes a picture speaks a thousand words. Mild-mannered, liberal-world-order, green-transition-loving German Chancellor Scholz just appeared with an eyepatch and scars that make him look like Blofeld from Bond, Number One from Austin Powers, Moshe Dayan from 1967, or Space Commander Travis from Blakes’ Seven. All Scholz needs is a white cat and a swivel chair: that might help him grasp the spectrum of conflated challenges he faces, as warnings rain down of threats to Germany’s auto sector, and as wind farms are dug up to mine coal, while imports of Russian LNG surge, due to a refusal to use nuclear power.
Sometimes a chart also speaks a thousand words too. While people argue about whether 2-year US Treasuries are a “screaming buy” or not ‘because rates will be cut soon’, or 10s are the same ‘because rates won’t be cut soon, but need to be”, look at the 30-year. It is now at 4.31%, when it started 2023 at 3.96%, 2022 at 2.02%, 2021 at 1.66%, and 2020 at 2.33% (i.e., pre-Covid).
There are two takeaways from that.
First, barring a sudden collapse in US data, this could indeed be a third consecutive year of losses for those long bonds, which some have recently pointed out has not happened to the US Treasury market in general since the American Revolution. Talk about usual models not applying!
Second, the bond market is saying long-term US growth is going to be higher ahead with low inflation; or growth will be the same as now or lower, but with higher inflation; or what-we-can’t-explain-so-call term premiums have risen due to “uncertainty”… like the UAW asking for a 46% pay rise, the US running a massive fiscal deficit even before the onset of recession and a need to rearm again, and worrying shifts in the geopolitical and geoeconomic architecture.
In short, put on an eyepatch like Scholz and squint at the US 30-year if you want an idea of the future.
This is the backdrop for the last policy meeting for RBA Governor Philip Lowe today. Before heading off into the staggeringly well-remunerated sunset –because he isn’t going to go build low-income housing– he is widely expected to keep things as they are at 4.1%, though our AU/NZ strategist Ben Picton expects another 25bp hike to 4.35% later in the year. As such, Lowe will depart with the rare accolade (for now, but not for long!) of having left with higher policy rates than he started with, so his monetary policy was not eponymous after all.
When Dr. Phil joined the RBA in September 2016, Australia was already in the New Normal following the end of the China commodity boom – which the RBA had not seen coming despite warnings from yours truly. The overnight cash rate was already at just 1.5%, and Lowe left it there for almost three years, before cutting to 1.25% in June 2019, to 1.0% in July 2019, to 0.75% in October 2019, all pre-Covid, and then to 0.50% and immediately to 0.25% in March 2020, and again to 0.1% in October 2020 once the virus struck. Then we got pointless QE, pointless yield curve control, and the infamous “Rates won’t rise until 2024” promise. Which ended up with the RBA on the government’s Naughty Step.
The RBA’s subsequent review will see fewer rate meetings under new Governor Bullock, who was along for the whole ride so far as Deputy Governor, and: “A clearer monetary policy framework; stronger monetary policy decision making and accountability; an open and dynamic RBA, with a more agile and empowering culture; more robust corporate governance; and steps to ensure RBA leaders drive institutional and cultural change.”
Sadly, however, the only thing that may actually change is the wallpaper. The intellectual theme song at the RBA will likely remain “I’m housing, housing, housing, housing. I’m housing, housing, housing, housing all night.”
To have really changed in a way that would allow it to not focus solely on assets as growth drivers, and to avoid future shocks when assets eventually, inevitably become unaffordable, as in China; or external shocks have like the mid-2010s, or the inflation return of 2021-22, would require a far broader spectrum of thinkers to enter the Reserve Bank than is the case so far. It would require experts on geoeconomics; on the supply side, not the demand side; on shadow banking; on national security; and those who grasp Kaleckian political-economy, not just economics.
Absent those, we probably won’t get an ‘eyepatch’ view from the RBA, just a lilac-scented eye-mask that lulls the naïve to sleep.
As such, ignore what they say, because they are going to be far more wrong than right, and keep looking at the 30-year US yield and international news headlines instead. And go buy yourself a white cat and swivel chair.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
This strike could be very deadly to Europe that need LNG badly. Chevron workers in Australia plan a multi week strike
(zerohedge)
“They Lose A Few $Billion”: Chevron Workers Plan Multi-Week Strike At Major Australian LNG Plants
TUESDAY, SEP 05, 2023 – 07:45 AM
On Monday, Chevron resorted to mediation talks with the union representing its workers at the Gorgon and Wheatstone liquefied natural gas projects in Australia in the latest attempt to avert a strike. In a significant escalation over pay and working conditions, the union announced Tuesday it was planning a two-week strike starting September 14.
“The Offshore Alliance is escalating protected industrial action to demonstrate that our bargaining negotiations are far from ‘intractable,'” Offshore Alliance wrote in a Facebook post.
The union continued, “Offshore Alliance members are yet to exercise their lawful workplace rights to take Protected Industrial Action and our bargaining claims will look more and more reasonable as Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG exports dry up.”
“The Offshore Alliance Log Of Claims will ultimately be claims which Chevron will agree to, but not before they lose a few $Billion – judging by the form guide,” it said.
The strike is expected to begin at the end of next week and come after the union initiated other industrial actions.
“The new Protected Industrial Action Notice will escalate workbans and the OA will have rolling 24 x 1 hour stoppages,each day for 14 days from Thursday September 14,” Offshore Alliance said.
Strikes at Gorgon and Wheatstone could disrupt LNG exports and jolt global natural gas markets if the walkouts are prolonged. Wood Mackenzie, a commodities research firm, estimates that Chevron operations account for about 7% of global LNG supply.
Dutch bank ING Group wrote in a note to clients that the latest move by the union is an ominous sign mediation talks were not “progressing well.”
“This is likely to provide some support to gas prices today and comes at a time when there is ongoing maintenance work at the Norwegian gas field, Troll, which has seen flows from Norway falling,” ING said.
Energy analyst Saul Kavonic said potential strikes appear inevitable: “It will create inefficiencies, and the risk of supply impacts grows with time but the mediation process should resolve the issues before the strikes escalate to the point of a material supply disruption.”
On Tuesday morning, Chevron’s Colin Parfitt, vice president of midstream, spoke with Bloomberg Television about how the producer aims “to find a solution that is a win-win-win for Chevron, our employees and the gas market.”
“We understand it has to be good for employees, good for us and that will be good in the energy markets,” Parfitt said on the sidelines of the Gastech conference in Singapore.
In another interview with Bloomberg on the sidelines of Gastech, Woodside Energy Group Ltd.’s CEO Meg O’Neill said she was sharing experiences on bargaining with unions with Chevron. Last month, Woodside made a breakthrough deal with unions to avoid strikes that would’ve shuttered its North West Shelf plant.
Disruptions in Australia could make US LNG cargoes destined for Europe more appealing to Asia. All eyes are on potential Chevron strikes in Australia next week.
end
Much to the anger of Biden, the Saudi and Russian shock with extended oil production cuts
(zerohedge)
Oil Soars To New 2023 High After Saudis, Russia Shock With Extended, Expanded Production Cut
… moments ago oil exploded higher after first Saudi Arabia and moments later Russia surprised markets by announcing that the recently implemented production cuts would be extended through year-end, well beyond the 1 month that was widely expected by the market.
Just after 9am ET, Saudi Arabia said it would extend the voluntary cut of 1 million b/d of for another 3 months, from October until the end of December, well beyond the expectation of just 1 more month. Saudi press agency SPA notes that the voluntary cut decision will be reviewed monthly to consider deepening the cut or increasing production. The extension of cuts is meant to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEO countries with the aim of supporting the stability of the oil market.
And then, literally seconds after the Saudi decision, Russian deputy PM Novak said Russia would not only extend its reduction of oil exports until the end of the year, but also add another 300kb/d in voluntary oil cuts until December 2023. The measure is in addition to voluntary reduction previously announced by Russia in April 2023, which will last until of December 2024.
Similar to the Saudis, Russia said that the decision to reduce oil production to be reviewed monthly to consider possibility of deepening reduction or increasing production depending on situation on the world market.
Following this announcement Brent Nov’23 lifted from USD 88.50 to above $90 for the first time in 2023, while WTI Oct’23 rose from USD 85.55/bbl to USD 87.00/bbl, also the highest price of the year, and about to crush the Fed’s hopes for a decline in headline inflation.
Bottom line: we now know that a year and a half later, the OPEC+/BRIC+ reaction to Biden’s weaponized dollar is weaponized oil; may the least hopeless man win.
As for Biden, we wish him the best of luck refilling the SPR now that oil is about to hit $100 and rise above the price where the senile president sold most of the US strategic oil.
end
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
GABON/
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0721 DOWN 0.0068
USA/ YEN 147.31 UP 0.770 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2545 DOWN 0.0078
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3655 UP .0054 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 54 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 22.69 PTS OR 0.71%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 387.25 PTS OR 2.06%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.12 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 387.35 PTS OR 2.06%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22/69 PTS OR 0.71%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.12%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 97.55 PTS OR 0.30%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1930.30
silver:$23.50
USA dollar index early TUES morning: 104.66 UP 43 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.3065
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3089)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.80 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.647…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.255% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.368 UP 8 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.935 UP 8 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 14.85 POINTS or 0.20%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 53.24 PTS OR 0.34%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 24.79 PTS OR 0.345%
Spain IBEX DOWN 24.30 PTS OR 0.28%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 4.85 PTS OR 0.02%
WTI Oil price 86.54 12: EST
Brent Oil: 89.64 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 97.83; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 96//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.6055 UP 8 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.5515 UP 11 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0724 DOWN 0.0067 OR 67 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2564 DOWN .0058 or 88 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5675% UP 12 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .647%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.69 UP 1.152 //YEN DOWN 115 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3637 UP .0038 CDN dollar DOWN 38 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 86.58
Brent OIL: 89.85
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS pts to 4.263%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS PTS to 4.375%
USA 2 YR BOND:UP 9 PTS AT 4.958 %
USA dollar index: 104.73 UP 54 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.78 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 97.91 UP 1 AND 4/100 roubles
GOLD 1926.65
SILVER: 23.55
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 195.77 PTS OR 0.56%
NASDAQ 100 UP 17.87 PTS OR 0.11%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.86 UP 0.04 PTS (0.29)%
GLD: $178.64 DOWN 1.47 OR 0.82%
SLV/ $22.17 DOWN 0.58 OR 2.62%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
‘Value’ Stocks Puked, ‘Growth’ Gains, As Heavy Flow Hammers Bonds
TUESDAY, SEP 05, 2023 – 04:00 PM
A long weekend to think about how ‘not-goldilocks’ the jobs data really was combined with disappointing manufacturing orders data this morning prompted a bid for Nasdaq (safety in the MAG7) and selling in Small Caps as rates rose (this is since the Friday close and include futures from yesterday). Some late-day selling pressure wiped some of the lipstic off the tech pig leaving Russell 2000 down over 2%, Dow & S&P down around 0.5% and Nasdaq only marginally higher from Friday’s close…
This was the Nasdaq’s second best performance relative to the Russell 2000 since Nov 2021, breaking out to a new cycle high. The last time Nasdaq/Russell 2000 traded here was March 2000 – the very peak of the dotcom bubble…
Value stocks saw their 2nd biggest decline relative to growth since May today, breaking below July’s lows…
To its weakest since Dec 2021…
After surging last week, Homebuilders were hammered lower today as fears of higher rates and cooling labor markets finally weighed on the stocks…
…but they’ve got a long way to fall given the macro data…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Most Shorted’ stocks were slammed lower, erasing Friday’s post-payrolls squeeze…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were a non-stop sell-fest today thanks to a very heavy calendar with the entire curve up around 7-8bps (after rising 2bps in futures land yesterday)…
Source: Bloomberg
As Bloomberg notes, at least 40 businesses are tapping high-grade bond markets around the world on Tuesday, looking to lock in borrowing costs ahead of crucial releases of economic data and central bank policy decisions. About half of those deals are underway in the US, where it’s shaping up to be the busiest day of issuance since Jan. 3. At least six US high-grade corporate bond issuers have slated offerings for Tuesday; sales are expected to total about $120b this month, a seasonally heavy month that normally sees issuance concentrated in the week or so after US Labor Day.
Well the weight of the issuance on the Treasury market did nothing to scare off equity investors who shrugged off the recent strong relationship between yields and equity prices…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar soared higher today (best day since March), up 3 of the last 4 days to its strongest since March (biggest 4-day jump since Feb)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin slid lower, back below $26,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Dollar strength weighed on gold, dragging the precious metal (spot) down to $1925
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices soared after the OPEC+ headlines, pushing WTI above $88 (its highest since Nov 2022). WTI is up 8 straight days today…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that, with a US recession on the horizon, gold will probably outperform stocks. As Bloomberg’s Nour Al Ali reports, measured using the ratio of gold prices to S&P 500 total returns, the metal has comfortably come out on top from the start to the end of each of the past three US recessions…
Source: Bloomberg
During the 2000 event, the ratio went from 0.15 to 0.17 over the period defined by NBER. During the global financial crisis it nearly doubled from 0.34 to 0.62, and in the Covid recession, it climbed from 0.23 to 0.28.
So today’s decline in the barbarous relic is a buying opportunity?
EARLY MORNING/
TUCKER CARLSON…
end
II USA DATA
In nutshell, bank deposits leave by 41 billion dollars and much of this flows to money markets
(zerohedge)
Fed F**kery Is Back: Seasonal Adjustments Turns $66BN Bank Deposit Outflow Into $41BN Inflow
Instead, of course, total bank deposits (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) rebounded dramatically, up $45BN…
Source: Bloomberg
But – mysteriously, the non-seasonally-adjusted data from The Fed shows a massive $61BN deposit outflow… magic eh?
Source: Bloomberg
Which leaves the divergence between bank deposits and money-market fund assets even more gaping…
Source: Bloomberg
The big variation between SA and NSA deposit data comes from Large Banks, which saw a $38BN inflow (SA) and $2BN inflow for Small Banks…
Source: Bloomberg
…and a $51BN outflow (NSA) from Large Banks and $15BN outflow for Small Banks…
Source: Bloomberg
Putting that altogether, Domestic banks saw a $65.7BN deposit outflow transformed into a much more recovery-narrative-satisfying $41BN deposit inflow last week…
Source: Bloomberg
So, for all those who are still paying attention, since the start of March, the SA vs NSA divergence is now $142BN…
On the other side of the ledger, loan volumes continued to rise last week with Large banks adding $7.8BN and Small banks adding $6.9BN…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, while US equity markets were lower in August, they remain notably divergent from their historical relationship with bank reserves at The Fed…
Source: Bloomberg
We leave you with one thought – in 6 months and counting, America’s ‘smaller’ banks will need to find that $100-billion plus from somewhere as that is when the BTFP bailout program ends (theoretically). Will regional bank balance sheets be stabilized by then? They better hope for a serious recession to smash yields back down (and TSY prices up).
END
Not good! USA factory orders tumbled in July and it will get worse as time goes by
(zerohedge)
US Factory Orders Tumbled In July, Transports Heavy
TUESDAY, SEP 05, 2023 – 10:07 AM
After its large (2.3% MoM) jump in June, US factory orders were expected to see a major decline in July (down 2.5% MoM)> The decline was sizable – down 2.1% MoM – but less than expected.
That is still the biggest MoM drop since Nov ’22 and left the YoY orders 0.7% lower.
Transportation was clearly a drag since Core Factory orders rose 0.8% MoM – best since January – well above expectations…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall Durable Goods Orders plunged 5.2% MoM (thanks to a 43.6% collapse in non-defense aircraft and parts orders), but that final print is the same as the preliminary print.
Source: Bloomberg
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
CHICAGO
Watch: Chicago Residents Rage As Illegal Migrant Housing Takes Over Their Neighborhoods
FRIDAY, SEP 01, 2023 – 08:00 PM
Cook County, the home of the city of Chicago and Hyde Park township, voted with an astonishing 74% of the population in favor of the Democrat Party in the last presidential election. The city has also been what progressives describe as a “sanctuary city” since at least 1985, which means that the city government refuses to enforce national immigration laws and often actively tries to interfere with federal agencies like ICE when they seek to detain illegal immigrants. In this way, leftist governments have sought to undermine US border security by incentivizing migrants to enter the country without going through the proper vetting process.
For decades conservatives and even some moderates have warned that the open border policies of the political left would lead to social and economic disaster. Democrats happily ignored these arguments and chose instead to dismiss criticisms of illegal immigration as “racism.” The reasons why are varied. Some leftists believe that opening the borders is just a precursor to a sweeping amnesty for illegals who will then become a dedicated voting block for Democrats. Others see the US as a “white patriarchy” that needs to be dismantled and replaced using a Cloward-Piven approach. Others just want to see America burn.
While often holding up the cause of “empathy” for “huddled masses yearning to breathe free,” the progressive position always smelled of opportunism and dishonesty. Now we have the proof. With all the pontificating about how “asylum is not illegal” and “America is a melting pot”, leftist regions are finally beginning to face the consequences of their own weaponization of the border, and they really don’t like it.
Chicago appears to be the next in line to get a dose of karma. Former mayor Lori Lightfoot attacked Texas Governor Greg Abbot over his relocation of migrants to the city in May, calling the move “inhumane” and “dangerous.” Lightfoot cited a “lack of communication” with the city government, with buses of illegals arriving unannounced. She did not seem to grasp the irony; open border policies and broad asylum regulations mean red states are constantly under siege with no way of knowing how many migrants are coming at an given time. Federal government interference means states have limited tools to “legally” react to the invasion.
Cook County has been hit with at least 13,500 migrants in the past year, with hundreds being housed in Hyde Park neighborhoods, increasing tensions in an already crime addled metropolis. The thing is, this is what residents voted for. The Utopian fantasy of an open border society that is still able to maintain its economy and its inherent cultural structures is naive at best. All those virtuous feelings go out the window once their neighborhoods are overrun and their city welfare programs are tapped out. Soon, those same compassionate progressives are threatening violence.
New York City and Washington DC have faced similar results. While border towns deal with millions of migrants per year (2.79 million in 2022 alone), all it took was 10,000 – 15,000 migrants to grind NY and DC into a panic. In July, NY Mayor Eric Adams warned that the city was “out of room” and that migrant housing costs could exceed $12 billion. DC Mayor Muriel Bowser declared a state of public emergency. The bottom line? These sanctuary cities don’t want any more migrants, and neither do the residents, but they continue to keep the same old policies in place.
So where does that leave them? In a self perpetuating death spiral. They’ll never admit their ideological views were unrealistic because that would be admitting conservatives were right. So, they will continue taking in migrants and destroying their own local economy and security. They will ride this atomic bomb all the way to ground zero.
end
UAW/
SEPT 14 // This is the date that a major strike is called upon. The union is emboldened by the huge gains in wages of UPS workers.
Biden ‘Not Worried’ About Major UAW Strike On Automakers
MONDAY, SEP 04, 2023 – 06:25 PM
President Biden on Monday expressed that he wasn’t too concerned about the growing possibility of a labor strike from the United Auto Workers’ 146,000 members. They’re seeking a 46% salary hike, a 32-hour workweek, and restoration of traditional pensions from Detroit’s big three legacy automakers.
“I’m not worried about a strike. I don’t think it’s going to happen,” Biden told reporters ahead of his Labor Day appearance in Philadelphia. He is expected to celebrate good-paying unionized jobs, a move to continue the ‘Bidenomics’ promotion ahead of the 2024 presidential election cycle.
General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., and Stellantis NV, maker of the Jeep and Chrysler brands and the UAW have until Sept. 14 to finalize a new four-year contract for union workers. Even UAW’s own president called demands “audacious” in a Facebook live video last week.
“Record profits mean record contracts.
“While big execs have used those extreme profits to pump up their pay, our members have fallen further and further behind. … The rich are getting richer while the rest of us are getting left behind,” UAW President Shawn Fain said.
Here are more of Fain’s “audacious” demands (list courtesy of Detroit Free Press):
elimination of wage tiers
substantial wage increases
restoration of cost of living allowance increases
defined benefit pension for all workers
reestablishment of retiree medical benefits
the right to strike over plant closures
limits on the use of temporary workers
more paid time off
increased benefits to current retirees
The Detroit News has described the demands as “the largest pay increase in recent memory.”
With a Sept. 14 deadline less than two weeks away, we have noted, “Automakers have historically resisted significant pay increases, especially this unusually large one.”
Biden had previously urged Detroit’s big three legacy automakers to avoid plant closings if strikes were seen.
A recent Gallup survey revealed that approximately 75% of Americans favor auto workers and Hollywood film writers’ strikes.Source: Statista
The sweetheart deal Teamsters got their workers at UPS appears to have emboldened other unions to do the same: strike. But as BofA CIO Michael Hartnett recently told clients (available to pro subscribers) in the latest weekly Flow Show, inflation appears to be stickier than previously believed because of the growing influence of labor unions.
Hartnett makes another tangent on why reflation is bound to be far stickier than the Fed expects, and it has to do with wages, and specifically the growing influence of labor unions: after the teamsters recently reached an agreement with UPS, which among other things included massive pay raises for both part-time and full-time workers, we are seeing strikes galore and labor unions aggressively negotiating for double-digit wage increases. The culmination of this is that, as Hartnett notes, a net 44% of Americans now support labor unions, the highest since ’72…
Let the strike countdown begin — unless there’s a labor contract breakthrough between UAW and the automakers.
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
What a farce: now many blue states are fighting to remove migrants!
New Jersey Governor No Longer Wants Immigrants After Earlier Advocating For Sanctuary State
New Jersey’s Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy has changed his stance on border policies after refusing to take in immigrants as proposed under a Biden administration scheme, even though the governor had earlier insisted on building a “sanctuary state.”
The Biden administration recently proposed that some of the 60,000 asylum seekers in New York City could be moved to the Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, New Jersey. The decision triggered a sharp reaction from New Jersey politicians.
“I don’t see any scenario where we’re going to be able to take in a program in Atlantic City or frankly elsewhere in the state,” Mr. Murphy said during News 12 New Jersey’s “Ask Gov. Murphy” show.
“We are already seeing folks in New Jersey that have probably swelled into Jersey from New York City or from other locations, but you need scale, enormous amount of federal support—resources that go beyond anything that we can afford—putting everything else aside.”
Mr. Murphy’s concerns about housing illegal immigrants and asylum seekers comes despite the fact that he has been a vocal supporter of liberal immigration policies over the past years. In 2017, while he was a candidate, Mr. Murphy insisted on making New Jersey a “sanctuary state.”
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy gives a victory speech to supporters at Grand Arcade at the Pavilion in Asbury Park, N.J., on Nov. 3, 2021. (Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images)
At the time, his competitor, the Republican nominee for governor, warned about the dangers of providing sanctuary to undocumented immigrants and accused Mr. Murphy of seeking to “violate” the federal law and putting people at risk.
However, Mr. Murphy insisted that sanctuary policies were about “inclusiveness” and the election was about the “nation’s moral compass” and “the goodness of America,” according to Politico.
In a joint statement, a group of Republican legislators from New Jersey’s 13th district said, “New Jersey should not in any way, shape or form be used as a scapegoat to bear the fallout of failed Democrat Policies which continuously impact Americans and immigrants.”
“It is well past time for the Governor and our U.S. Senators to make it clear to New York City and Washington, D.C., that New Jersey will not tolerate their inabilities to implement real, effective changes to address the immigration crisis facing this nation.”
“The State of New Jersey should not become a tool to gloss over the gross ineptitude of federal politicians to produce a fair resolution.”
In an interview with the outlet, Republican Atlantic County Executive Dennis Levinson said that he will do his “best to prevent” migrants from being sent to the region. Atlantic County is one of the poorest counties in the state.
“We can’t afford it. We’re a poor county. We’re one of the poorest counties in New Jersey. It’s not a burden I can put on our taxpayers.”
Democrats Fight Over Immigrants
While New Jersey is rejecting the Biden administration’s proposal to send some of New York’s illegal immigrants to their state, New York’s leaders are facing heat over the impacts of their own party’s border policies and the resulting immigrant surge, with Democrats blaming each other for the situation.
NY Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul is pushing the blame onto the Biden administration.
“This crisis originated with the federal government, and it must be resolved through the federal government … The borders and decisions about who can work are solely determined by the federal government,” she said.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul gives a speech in New York on Jan. 31, 2023. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Meanwhile, New York City Mayor Eric Adams is blaming Ms. Hochul for the crisis. “I think the governor’s wrong. She’s the governor of the state of New York. New York City is in that state. Every county in this state should be part of this,” he said during a recent speech.
Over the past year, more than 55,000 foreigners have sought asylum in New York City, claiming to be at threat of violence and persecution in their home nations, according to the City Hall.
The Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget calculates the cost of providing shelter and other services to these illegal immigrants and asylum seekers at $1.4 billion in 2023 and $2.8 billion in 2024.
Last month, comedian commentator Bill Maher slammed progressive leaders for their handling of the immigration crisis. “Don’t pretend that you love migrants so much and then, when [border states] send them to you, you don’t like them,” he said during a podcast.
“Yeah, you liked them when it wasn’t your problem because you’re not a border state. And then when they show up in Chicago, in New York, you’re like … ‘What are we going to do with these people?’”
Immigrant Numbers Jump Under Biden
The migrant crisis in New York is happening as the number of illegal immigrants crossing into America across the southwest land border has surged under the policies of the current administration.
Illegal immigrants wait to be taken by Border Patrol to a processing facility to begin their asylum-seeking process in Eagle Pass, Texas, on June 25, 2023. (Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP via Getty Images)
In 2020, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported 458,088 encounters in the southwest land border. This jumped to 1.73 million in 2021 and then to 2.37 million in 2022. As of July, the encounters have already exceeded 1.97 million.
In an interview with Breitbart last month, presidential hopeful Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) highlighted the need to complete President Donald Trump’s border wall.
“The number one thing we should do is finish the border wall. The second thing that we should do is use the available technology to stop the fentanyl from killing another 70,000 Americans per year.”
Mr. Scott also stressed the need to “crush the cartels.”
“We cut off their blood support, so to speak, by taking away their money. If we do that, we’ll save tens of thousands of American lives.
“I wrote the legislation to get that done. It was passed through the Senate,” he said. The bill is yet to become law.
end
THE KING REPORT
The King Report September 5, 2023 Issue 7068
Independent View of the News
Friday’s King Report: Team Obama-Biden for the past few years has been crafting better than reality economic data. (Two-month [June & July] NFP revision: -110k) It is regularly revised lower – and the Street and MSM will ignore and/or spike the negative news. Team Obama-Biden needs a strong NFP for political reasons. Equity bulls need a soft report. (August NFP 187k; 170k expected, 155k Whisper#)
July NFP was revised 30k lower, from 187k to 157k. June was revised 80k lower, from 185k to 105k. Every single 2023 Employment Report NFP has been revised lower. Where are the ‘experts’ on this?
@zerohedge June payrolls originally reported: 209K June payrolls revision one month later: 185K June payrolls revision two months later: 105K.
Once again, the Obama-Joe BLS boosted NFP via seasonal adjustments: Aug 2022 seasonal adjustment +47k; Aug 2023 seasonal adjustment +117k; ergo, +70k phantom jobs (Table B-1) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
August Employment Report HighlightsThe Unemployment Rate jumped to 3.8% from 3.5%; Unemployed +514k; Employed +222kCivilian Labor Force +736; Not in Labor Force -525kLabor Force Participation Rate 62.8%, 62.65 expected and priorMfg 16k, 0 expectedWages 0.2% m/m & 4.3% y/y; 0.3% m/m & 4.3% y/y expected; Workweek 34.4, 34.3 expectedHealthcare +70.9k; Social Assistance +26.4k, Construction +22k, Leisure & Hospitality +40k, Transportation & Warehousing -34.2k with Trucking -36.7k due to the Yellow Freight bankruptcy, Information -15k due to Hollywood strikes (-16.8)https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Bidenomics: 1.2 Native-Born Americans Lose Job in August – 711,000 Foreign-Born Workers Replace Themhttps://t.co/fpk3vAcS7u
Bulls heralded the 0.1 lower than expected 0.2% wage growth. However, as the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos notes, “July had two more weekend days than June, which tends to bias upwards the monthly wage print. August went the other way (two fewer weekend days than July). It doesn’t affect the YoY number, but it likely overstates July m/m wage gains and August wage softness.”
Most important stat that pundits are ignoring but is keeping stocks buoyant and bonds annoyed: Reserves at the Fed +$51.556B to $3.238T for the week ended on Wednesday.
The yield curve steepened on Friday: short rates fell; long rates jumped. The usual suspects heralded a Fed ‘skip’ and/or pivot because the August Employment Report was soft. USUs hit a high of 121 9/32 on the Employment Report release. It quickly turned lower and hit 119 29/32 near 12:00 ET.
As we keep harping, bonds are screaming at the Fed and Congress that they are too loose. Short rates fell on the hectoring that the Fed will skip or pivot. But, Mr. Bond showed his displeasure with this dynamic.
USUs were -1 25/32 at low; WTI Oil hit a 2023 high of 85.95 (+2.75%); Gasoline peaked at +1.6%.
ESUs traded mostly positive but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they dipped into the European opening. Of course, traders bought the dip. ESU then rallied moderately until they soared after the release of the August Employment Report. But dumpers were ready; they hammered ESUs and stocks as soon as the NYSE opened. The ESU daily high of 4547.75 occurred at 9:31 ET.
ESUs tumbled to 4521.75 by 9:48 ET. After conditioned dip buyers took ESUs to 4541.25 at 10:09 ET, sellers, unnerved by Mr. Bond’s sadness, cut loose. ESUs sank to a daily low of 4507.25 at 11:47 ET.
A Noon Balloon developed for both ESUs and USUs. ESUs rallied to 4519.75 at 12:52 ET and then rolled over. A moderate decline ended at 14:39 ET. The late manipulation took ESUs to 4523.50 at 15:55 ET. ESUs lost two handles into the NYSE close.
@charliebilello: US National Debt has now increased by $1.45 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 3 months ago and is fast approaching $33 trillion. In the past five years the national debt has increased by 53%, from $21.4 trillion to $32.9 trillion. https://t.co/7JfsamvM5F US Bonds are down 7% over the last 4 years, their worst 4-year return in history. https://t.co/4vtb9uleT0
WaPO: U.S. deficit explodes even as economy grows – A strong economy usually reduces the deficit. Not this time. The federal deficit is projected to roughly double this year, as bigger interest payments and lower tax receipts widen the nation’s spending imbalance despite robust overall economic growth… to about $2 trillion for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30… Typically, deficits contract when the economy grows, because businesses and consumers owe more in taxes and the government does not need to spend as much to protect those who have lost their job. Then deficits normally expand again in downturns, as those factors go into reverse. And yet the current surge in the deficit is coinciding with a period of unusually strong economic growth, amid historic lows in unemployment and robust corporate profits… https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/03/us-debt-deficit-rises-interest-rate/
Tesla China Cuts Price of Model S Plain by 19% – BBG
China’s EV War Just Got Fiercer as Tesla, Zeekr Dial It Up Elon Musk’s company cut prices of its Model S and X cars in China and the US. Guangzhou-based Xpeng Inc. quickly followed. Seen as one of Tesla’s most direct competitors, it said it will now offer discounts of up to 24,000 yuan ($3,300) on its flagship P7i sedan for the month of September… https://biz.crast.net/chinas-ev-war-gets-even-more-fierce-as-tesla-zikr-dial-it-up/
Tesla faces competition in Europe as local manufacturers fight back New-car registrations increased 17% to 1.02 million vehicles, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said Wednesday. Sales of battery-electric cars surged 62%, while deliveries of diesel models declined 9%. Markets including Germany, France and Spain saw double-digit sales growth… https://fortune.com/2023/09/01/tesla-faces-competition-in-europe/
Positive aspects of previous session. ESUs and stocks staged a pre-NYSE opening rally on soft August Employment Report
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks sank after an early rally and closed at their lows, because too many traders were long. Bonds got hammered; oil and gasoline rallied sharply Team Obama-Joe keep issuing bogus US economic data Fangs declined modestly despite the moderate general equity rally
Ambiguous aspects of previous session The dollar rallied sharply. Few know why.
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4519.46 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4541.25; 4501.35
@NBCNewsWorld: Ukraine troops are fighting to turn what appears to be a minor breakthrough into a substantial breach of Russian lines. And in Kyiv, the defense minister has been dismissed in the biggest shake-up of the country’s leadership since the war began. https://t.co/ST0DfXHRXx
‘Where Is the Money?’ Military Graft Becomes a Headache for Ukraine: NYT The removal of the defense minister highlights the enduring challenge of corruption in Ukraine, which has emerged as a rare area of criticism of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s leadership.. Just last week, the United States’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, met with three high-ranking Ukrainian officials to discuss efforts to stamp out wartime corruption. It comes as some lawmakers in the United States have used graft as an argument for limiting military aid to Ukraine… https://news.yahoo.com/where-money-military-graft-becomes-123914874.html?ref=upstract.com
Kremlin Silent on Chinese Map Claiming Part of Russia’s Territory A new map that shows disputed territory as being within China’s borders, including Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island, which is shared by China and Russia. Malaysia, the Philippines, India and Taiwan have all complained about the map… The map lays claim to land on China’s border with India, all of Taiwan, and islands, reefs and maritime zones in the South China Sea, which are contested by half a dozen countries… https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-kremlin-territory-1823677
@disclosetv: U.S. Special Operations Commandhas contracted a NY-based AI firm to deploy “Argus”, a system to detect and “neutralize” real-time “disinformation threats” on social media. https://t.co/cC0PVbhOQW @seanmdav: The Pentagon used to focus on defeating our foreign enemies. Now its primary objective seems to be waging psychological warfare against American citizens. And we wonder why the U.S. government hasn’t won a war in 30 years.
Air Force Sec Kendall: USAF ‘Not as Ready as We Need to Be’ for China Challenge Kendall suggested weapons alone will not answer the challenge of the China threat. It also requires a change in mindset… (More or less emphasis on woke stuff?) https://www.airandspaceforces.com/kendall-air-force-china-reoptimize/
@GGreenwald; “It is difficult to think of a more vivid example of the warped priorities in Washington than what is happening right now inside the U.S. Senate.” Democrats, led by Sen. Tammy Ducksworth of Illinois, are threatening to block disaster aid to Americans unless Ukraine gets $25 billion. The Biden WH cheered these threats. https://twitter.com/SystemUpdate_/status/1698104221793423388
Fauci admits to lack of COVID mask evidence — but wants us to wear them anyway https://t.co/TnIBG2ccxo
@DrJBhattacharya: Remember when the FDA tweeted to tell people to stop taking ivermectin because “you are not a horse”? The FDA implausibly told a federal district court that those tweets did not contain medical advice. The court just told the FDA to stop practicing medicine.
Federal Court Rules FDA Abused It’s Authority with Anti-Ivermectin Messaging to Americans: “FDA is Not a Physician” – “FDA is not a physician. It has authority to inform, announce, and apprise—but not to endorse, denounce, or advise.”https://t.co/FsVoi3qZSa
@elonmusk: To clear our platform’s name on the matter of anti-Semitism, it looks like we have no choice but to file a defamation lawsuit against the Anti-Defamation League … oh the irony!… they would potentially be on the hook for destroying half the value of the company, so roughly $22 billion. Based on what we’ve heard from advertisers, ADL seems to be responsible for most of our revenue loss. Giving them maximum benefit of the doubt, I don’t see any scenario where they’re responsible for less than 10% of the value destruction, so ~$4 billion. Document discovery of all communications between The ADL and advertisers will tell the full story.
Monday Markets: CSI 300 +1.52%, Shanghai Comp +1.4%, Shenzhen Comp +1.44%, Nikkei +0.7% The FTSE soared early in concert with Chinese bourses. However, after peaking at +0.8% near 4:25 ET, the FTSE then tumbled to -0.21% at 11:00 ET. The CAC 40 and DAX performed exactly like the FTSE.
ESUs: High 4531.25 (8:25 ET), Low 4515.25 (11 ET), Close 4518.75, -2.75 USUs: High 120 8/32, Low 129 27/32, Close 119/198, -14/32; WTI Oil +.39, Gasoline +1.26 cents
@GunjanJS: September is the only month in which the Dow has averaged a decline over the past **100 years** –@bespokeinvest https://t.co/JpeBlTMM2b
Today – The S&P 500 Index low on Friday was 4501.35; the low on Thursday was 4507.29. Obviously, 4500 is important support. Traders want to play for a rally, emboldened by headlines about Chinese stocks soaring on the new stimulus schemes. However, European markets declined after initial rallies; this should alarm professional traders. ESUs are -6.00 and USUs are -14/32 (from Friday) at 20:25 ET.
Expected econ data: July Factory Orders -2.5% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.2%
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4470; 100-day MA: 4333; 150-day MA: 4232; 200-day MA: 4160 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,728; 100-day MA: 35,173; 150-day MA: 33,818; 200-day MA: 33,771 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3814.46 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4586.76 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4431.22 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4499.07 triggers a sell signal
Biden Lives Up to Nickname ‘Sleepy Joe Biden,’ According to New Tell-All Book Excerpts from The Last Politician paint an alarming picture of Biden, who often struggles to make it through crucial meetings and cannot recall people’s names quickly. “It was striking that he took so few morning meetings or presided over so few public events before 10 a.m.,” Foer wrote. “His advanced years were a hindrance, depriving him of the energy to cast a robust public presence or the ability to easily conjure a name.”… “His public persona reflected physical decline and time’s dulling of mental faculties that no pill or exercise regime can resist,” Foer continued… https://townhall.com/tipsheet/saraharnold/2023/08/31/biden-admitted-to-aides-he-feels-tired-amid-age-concerns-n2627837
Two-thirds of even Dems say Biden too old for another term: bipartisan pollhttps://trib.al/IoRrOoV
Kamala Harris has ‘rabbit ears’ for any ‘hint of criticism,’ frustrating Biden White House: book “Rather than brushing it aside, she wanted to know who was speaking ill of her and what they were saying,” Foer wrote, noting that when Harris “read a devastating story” on a news website “about her mismanagement of her team,” the vice president “responded by briefly freezing out an aide whom she suspected of cooperating with reporters.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kamala-harris-rabbit-ears-criticism-source-frustration-biden-white-house-book
“We Have Videotapes of Someone Bringing in Thumb Drives… Ballots ” – Democrat County Supervisor Accuses Democrats of Rigging Primary After Discovering MASSIVE Election Fraud Hinds County (MS) Supervisor David Archie accused his Democrat opponent of cheating during the recent primary election for County Supervisor… https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/09/we-have-videotapes-someone-bringing-thumb-drives-bringing/
Victor Davis Hanson: What the Left Did To Our Country In the last 20 years, the Left has boasted that it has gained control of most of America institutions of power and influence—the corporate boardroom, media, Silicon Valley, Wall Street, the administrative state, academia, foundations, social media, entertainment, professional sports, and Hollywood. With such support, between 2009-17, Barack Obama was empowered to transform the Democratic Party from its middle-class roots and class concerns into the party of the bicoastal rich and subsidized poor—obsessions with big money, race, a new intolerant green religion, and dividing the country into a binary of oppressors and oppressed… Obama had begun demonizing his opponents and the country in general: America was an unexceptional place. Cops were racist. “Clingers” of the Midwest were hopelessly ignorant and prejudiced. Only fundamental socialist transformation could salvage a historically oppressive, immoral, and racist nation. The people finally rebelled at such preposterousness. Obama lost his party some 1,400 local and state offices during his tenure, along with both houses of Congress… Yet Obama’s unfulfilled ambitions set the stage for the Biden administration—staffed heavily with Obama veterans—to complete the revolutionary transformation of the Democratic Party and country… All the levers of the power and money are on the side of the revolutionaries. The people are not. And they are starting to wake to the notion if they do not stop the madness in their midst they very soon won’t have a country. https://amgreatness.com/2023/09/04/what-the-left-did-to-our-country/
Massachusetts calls up National Guard to cope with migrants as protests ragehttps://t.co/zXstIaOYKf
@DeAngelisCorey: I’m hearing the president of the Chicago Teachers Union now sends her kid to a private school. She is also the vice president of Randi Weingarten’s union and executive vice president of the Illinois Federation of Teachers. Is this true, @stacydavisgates?
@DanProft: I often cite the Fordham Institute research from years ago that found 1/2 of CPS (Chicago Public Schools) teachers send their kids to private school. But I’ve also come to understand intellectual and moral consistency is of no interest to the Left, particularly the self-styled thoughtful liberal.
@TheBabylonBee: Historians: Women Invented Grilling to Trick Men into Cooking
Analyst, financial writer and professional trader Rick Ackerman is forecasting a “deflationary end” to our debt-bloated financial system. Ackerman contends, “I think everybody agrees we have more debt than we can ever repay. So, it’s going to have to be repaid one way or another. The debt has to be discharged. Every penny of every debt has to be paid, if not by the borrower, by the lender. Hyperinflation would let borrowers skip free. The powers that be are not going to go for that. The lenders are going to be in charge. This is why I said all of the mortgage contracts will come to resemble leases. This is so the lenders don’t wind up evicting 110 million Americans from their homes. Things have gotten far crazier than I could have imagined a decade ago when I was forecasting a deflationary end.”
What is the big deflationary downward spiral going to look like for John Q Public? Ackerman predicts, “On the scale I believe it has to happen, it looks like a barter economy. We are talking about kind of a Stone Age. There are a lot of jobs in the economy where you would be hard pressed to say what these people do. Most people would not be able to tell you why they are worth what they are being paid. This would be true for 98% of the people who work for Twitter. A lot of those jobs will disappear. Imagine what you have when you have that kind of disposable cash taken out of the economy. It has more than a ripple effect. It has a tsunami effect. Everything downstream collapses too. So, I really see a state of barter. Full disclosure, I said we were close to a collapse 10 years ago, but I really think we are close this time. I think we are not further away than a stock market implosion. This inflated stock market is a crazed animal right now that does not relate to reality, earnings or anything. It’s always in danger of collapsing tomorrow. As far as a precipitous deflation, it will be simultaneously with the collapse of the stock market. We are at a much higher threshold than the past. The edifice is much more fragile and precarious than it has ever been. All we need is for the inevitable bear market to begin, and then it is game over.”
Ackerman also predicts the dollar will get stronger in the short to medium term, and its strength will be another sign of deflation. Ackerman predicts very hard times for commercial real estate that has already started and predicts a 70% fall in residential real estate prices. Ackerman also talks about the value of having cash. He also recommends gold and silver as a core investment, along with food and survival strategies. Yes, it’s going to get that bad.
Ackerman points out, “The financial mess today is so much worse than America faced in the 1920’s and 1930’s. Ackerman says count on big deflation, and this will include how you get medical care too. Ackerman says, “Deflation is all encompassing.”
There is much more in the 44-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with analyst Rick Ackerman, who is a professional trader famous for “Ricks Picks” for 9.2.23.
AM1989.38
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