SEPT 15//GOLD ROSE BY $13.20 TO $1924.60// //SILVER ROSE BY 37 CENTS TO $23.09/PLATINUM CLOSED UP 19.45 TO $930.00 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $0.60 TO $1250.50//IMPORTANT VIEW TO SEE ANDREW MAGUIRE INTERVIEWING JEFFREY SNIDER//AND ANOTHER IMPORTANT READ FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD//GOLD DENOMINATED IN YEN REACHES ALL TIME HIGHS//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//USA NEWS: UAW GOES ON STRIKE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 2 323 H HSBC 3 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 4 737 C ADVANTAGE 14 2
TOTAL: 14 14 MONTH TO DATE: 3,840
JPMorgan stopped 0/14 contracts.
FOR SEPT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2023. CONTRACT: 14 NOTICES FOR 1400 OZ or 0.0126 TONNES
total notices so far: 3840 contracts for 384,000 oz (11.9440 tonnes)
FOR SEPT:
SILVER NOTICES: 13 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 65,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2604 for 13,020,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $13.20
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 879,70 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 37 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 439.681 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 990 CONTRACTS TO 127,586 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.16 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A SMALL SIZED 355 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 355 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.16). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 3371 CONTRACTS ON BOTH EXCHANGES ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE T.A.S.LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 2110 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 14.420 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL QUEUE JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW TOTAL 13.365 MILLION OZ + OUR CRIMINAL ISSUANCE OF 200 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 1.0 MILLION OZ OF FUTURE SILVER STANDING FOR METAL//NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.0 MILLION OZ: NEW TOTALS SILVER STANDING: 16.365 MILLION OZ// /// / //HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 355CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -271 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 days, total 8054 contracts: OR 40.270 MILLION OZ (805 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 40.270 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 40.27 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 990 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.16 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2110 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 14.2 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP .+ 1 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 2.0 MILLION OZ/TOTAL EXCH. FOR RISK = 3.0 MILLION OZ////NEW TOTALS STANDING 16.365 MILLION OZ// /// WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 3100 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A SMALL SIZED 355 CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (355) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 13 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 65,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1311 CONTRACTS TO 440.649 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED: 413 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 898 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $1.00 GAIN IN PRICE//THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1500 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING 14.495 TONNES + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1084 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$1.00 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2069 OI CONTRACTS (6.435 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3380CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 441,062
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2069 CONTRACTS WITH 1311 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 3380 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2069CONTRACTS OR 6.435 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1084 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3380 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1311) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2492 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1500 OZ/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH FAIR TAS LIQUIDATION DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1084 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 23,269 CONTRACTS OR 2,326,900 OZ OR 72,37 TONNES IN 10TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2327 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 72.37 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 72.37/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.02% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 72.37 TONNES (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 990 CONTRACTS OI TO 127,586 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A HUMONGOUS 2110 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 2110and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2110 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 990 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2110 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3100 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 16.855 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8,81 PTS OR 0.28% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 134.97 PTS OR 0.75%/ /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 364.79 PTS OR 1.10% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.35 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.2772 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.2774 /Oil UP TO 90.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 93.89 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1311CONTRACTS TO 440,649 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.00 ON THURSDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3380 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 3380 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3380 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2069 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3380LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1311 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.00//THURSDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1084 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (14.495) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 14.495 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $1.00) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 2069 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF THURSDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 7.720 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (12.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1500 OZ//NEW STANDING 14.495 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $1.00.
WE HAD – REMOVED 413 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2069 CONTRACTS OR 206900 OZ OR 6.435 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 191,632 poor
final gold volumes/yesterday 216,600 poor//speculators have left the gold arena
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3840 notices 384000 OZ 11.9444 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 1 customer withdrawal
i) Out of Brinks: 3279.400 oz (102 kilobars)
total withdrawals 3279.400 oz
Adjustments; 3: all dealer to customer i) Asahi: 8583.231 oz
ii) Brinks: 1739.711 oz
iii) Manfra: 38,098.935 oz
total 48,421.877o
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER.
For the front month of SEPTEMBER we have an oi of 834 contracts having GAINED 12 contracts. We had
4 contracts were served on THURSDAY, so we gained an additional 15 CONTRACTS or AN ADDITIONAL 1500 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of Sept.
Oct LOST 311 contracts to 25,437 contracts.
NOV GAINED 1 CONTRACTS to stand at 20
December LOST 2436 contracts DOWN to 376,555 contracts.
We had 14 contracts filed for today representing 1400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 14 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3840 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (834 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 14 x 100 oz per contract equals 466,000 OZ OR 14.495 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of SEPT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTcontract month: No of notices filed so far (3840) x 100 oz + (834) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (14) x 100 oz) which equals 466,000 oz standing OR 14.495 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 14.495 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 20,878,273.020 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,801,765.332 (335,98 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,076,507.688 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,747,673 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 272.08 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
SEPT 15
//2023// THE SEPT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
849,053.410 oz ASAHI Brinks
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
13 CONTRACT(S) (65,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
69 contracts (345,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2604 Contracts (13,020,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposit customer account:
total customer deposit nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.901 million oz/272.781 million or 50.18%
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of ASAHI: 265,450.900 oz
ii) Out of Brinks: 583,602.510 oz
total: 849,053.410 o
adjustments:
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.405 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 272.781 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPT /2023 OI: 82 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 2 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 1
CONTRACT SERVED ON THURSDAY. SO WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR 15,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX..
OCT GAINED 43 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1143.
NOVEMBER GAINED 25 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 134
DEC. GAINED 711 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 115,186 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 13 for 65,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 64,659 fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 87,858 good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2604 x 5,000 oz = 13,020,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (82) and the number of notices served upon today 13 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2023 contract month: 2604 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (82) – number of notices served upon today (13 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 13.3650 million oz. + OUR 1.0 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK..NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 16.3650 MILLION OZ//
There are 42.145 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES
AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES
AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES
AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7,45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.87 TONNES
AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.63 TONNES
AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.31 TONNES
AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES
AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES
AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES FORM THE GLD /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES
AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES
AUGUST 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES
AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES
AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES
AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 879.681 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.459 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.565 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.926 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.106 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.294 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 189,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.281 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 275,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.471 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Alasdair Macleod: Currency wars vs. gold standards
Your weekend reading material:
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-09-14 11:57Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod Head of Research, GoldMoney, Toronto via Schiff Gold, White Plains, New York Thursday, September 14, 1012
Russia and the Saudis are driving up oil and diesel prices. But these moves are likely to undermine the rouble more than they undermine the dollar, euro, and other major currencies.
Therefore, higher energy prices will rebound on the Russians this winter: If they shiver in Germany, they will freeze in Russia. If the dollar is king of the fiats, the rouble is just a lowly serf.
There is little doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his advisers are aware of this problem. Plan A was to introduce a new gold-backed BRICS currency, which might be expected to weaken the dollar and euro relative to the rouble.
Plan B was more drastic: to back the rouble itself with gold. This is the financial equivalent of dropping a hydrogen bomb on the dollar and the global fiat currency system upon which it is based.
As well as demonstrating why there is no option for Russia but to back her currency with gold, this article shows why it is perfectly possible for Russia to do so during wartime and explains how it can be done.
It is, as a matter of fact, very easy for Russia to reintroduce a gold standard for the rouble, but the consequences for the global fiat currency system are nothing short of lethal. …
Japanese gold denominated in Yen is exploding in price reaching all time highs
(zerohedge)
Japanese Panic Buy Gold As Yen Implodes And Inflation Soars
THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 05:20 PM
A gold-buying frenzy in hyperinflating banana-republic basket cases such as Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Argentina or Turkey makes sense; one can also imagine Indians and Chinese liquidating rushing to buy the precious metal, as they periodically do (for other, not less relevant, reasons). But Japan?
That’s right: the otherwise quiet (and rapidly aging) population of Japan has found a new infatuation with gold, and it has the relentless money-printing juggernaut that is the BOJ to thank for it.
The retail gold price in Japan — the main reference price for the metal in the country — tracks global spot prices, which have been pushed up by the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the debt ceiling crisis in the US and global tensions between the east and west. But most of all, it reflects the dramatic collapse in the value of the yen, which recently passed ¥147 against the dollar, a level that last year triggered verbal market intervention by the Japanese authorities but this year has been widely ignored by a central bank which realizes that intervention at this point is futile and would only precipitate Japanese hyperinflation and systemic collapse.
And since Japan’s inflation, which recently surpassed that of the US, will keep rising…
… as the weak yen will only get weaker – occasional desperation intervention aside – as long as there was no signal from the Bank of Japan that it is ready to tighten its ultra-loose policy which won’t happen for a long time (and when it does, it will spark a collapse in the JGB bond market forcing the trapped BOJ to immediately reverse once again) demand for gold in Japan will only keep rising.
Economists cited by the FT, said the move in retail gold prices, which extends an 18-month rally at gold stores around Japan, was part of a rapid shift in household attitudes to risk as years of deflation have given way to rising consumer prices.
Imagine a world where the biggest source of demand for gold in Asia is not India but Japan, and where demand will only rise as the yen (inevitably) falls as it gets closer to its inevitable and catastrophic end. Well, we are pretty much there now.
Jesper Koll, an economist and adviser to the Japan Catalyst Fund, an investment fund, said the primary driver for the buying by Japanese households was an urgent search for inflation protection after years without strong incentive to move assets out of cash.
“The fact that gold is a non-yen asset helps, but the trigger is inflation,” said Koll, and since inflation in Japan is only going to rise, so will demand for gold.
Japanese households emerged from the pandemic with a record of more than ¥2 quadrillion in accumulated assets or around four times the country’s annual gross domestic product. About half of that was held in cash and deposits — a balance closely eyed by Japan’s securities houses, which are trying to convince customers that inflation is here to stay and they now need to switch their savings into other financial products. The problem is that core CPI in Japan reached 3.1% last month.
“Inflation in Japan is at a crossroads,” said Tomohiro Ota, senior Japan economist at Goldman Sachs, noting that although consumer prices keep going up, some of the increase is down to temporary government subsidies while consumption growth has stalled since March. Goldman Sachs predicts that Japan’s currency will hit ¥155 against the dollar in the next six months.
Eiichiro Kato, a general manager for Tanaka Kikinzoku’s Precious Metals Retail Department, said that gold had become particularly attractive to customers concerned about the yen’s fall to multi-decade lows and their assets being denominated in yen.
Of course, it’s not just Japanese savers who are rushing to the safety of gold: a year of record gold purchases by central banks in a world where the dollar is now weaponized against enemies of Ukraine the Biden administration, has made it clear that demand for gold will only rise.
“We do not see many factors that would cause the dollar-denominated price to fall significantly, and we think that the yen-denominated price could rise further if the yen continues to weaken,” said Kato.
However, Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Research Institute, warned against reading too much into the rise in Japan’s gold price due to the small size of the market.
“It could prove to be an outlier and the country’s elderly population might not change their behaviour and start to consume, even if inflation does remain high,” he said. On the other hand, with deflation now dead and buried (at least until the next global depression) the odds that Japan’s notoriously thrifty population will continue to save at a time when its currency is collapsing are nil, especially since the BOJ itself has given up trying to contain the surge in yen-denominated gold…
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2772
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2774
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.81 PTS OR 0.28%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 134.97PTS OR 0.75%
2. Nikkei closed UP 364.79 OR 1.10%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.93 EURO RISES TO 1.0657 UP 22 BASIS PT
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.703 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.83/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.6515***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.410*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.713…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.004
3j Gold at $1916.50 silver at: 23.02 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 45 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 96.89//
3m oil into the 90 dollar handle for WTI and 93 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.83// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.703% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8967 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9557well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.326 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.407 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.032 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.98…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 1 BASIS PTS AT 4.3865
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
USA EARLY MORNING REPORT
Futures Flat On Record $3.4 Trillion Triple-Witching Day As UAW Strike Begins
FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 – 08:49 AM
US equity futures traded flat to start today’s massive triple-witching option expiration, as the UAW labor union went on strike, while Arm Holdings shares rallied as much as 10% before turning red. As of 8:15am, S&P futures were flat while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.1%; in Europe and Asia, stocks jumped on the back of better-than-expected economic data in China, which fueled hopes stimulus measures are paying off. Brent crude traded near $94 per barrel, at new YTD high, up 0.4% after rising 1.9% Thursday, putting additional upward pressure on Treasury yields while the dollar edged lower versus most major peers. Gold rose and bitcoin dropped.
In premarket trading, GM and Ford shares dropped about 2% before the official US open. The UAW started an unprecedented a strike, setting the stage for a protracted showdown and shutting down about half of US auto production.Unmute
Adobe fell over 2% after the software company gave an outlook that analysts see as conservative even as it reported third-quarter results that beat expectations. Arm Holdings rose as much as 10% after its IPO, before reversing all gains and turning red. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Canopy Growth shares jump 10%, putting it on track to extend gains for a second session, after the cannabis company ceased funding for BioSteel Sports Nutrition on Thursday.
Celsius Holdings rises 0.7% is initiated outperform at Cowen, which says the growing appeal of the energy-drink maker’s differentiated product line-up is helping the firm continue to build US market share.
DoorDash 1.9% after MoffettNathanson downgrades shares to market perform from outperform, saying the resumption of student-loan payments introduces bookings risk to food-delivery businesses.
Iovance jumps 16% after the FDA extended its target action date for its treatment for advanced melanoma, lifileucel, saying that there are no major review issues.
Lindsay drops 12% as it is cut to hold from buy at Stifel, citing a challenging near-term outlook and lack of positive catalysts for the irrigation company.
Nikola climbs 11%, putting the electric-vehicle maker on track to extend Thursday’s 32% advance and end the week higher.
GM and Ford fell as the United Auto Workers started strikes at the companies’ plants.
Unity Software Inc. shares are up 4% after BofA upgraded the graphic tools provider to buy from neutral.
Markets were braced for Friday’s triple witching event, which at $3.4 trillion will be the biggest September options expiration in history…
… and which may trigger violent market swings, volume spikes and volatility as a huge number of pins centered around 4,500 matures and “unclenches” the gamma gravity which has kept the market from making large moves. Attention is also turning to the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, with traders betting at the US will keep interest rates on hold and avoid a sharp economic slowdown.
Meanwhile, expectations that the ECB is done raising rates hammered the euro: the currency headed toward its ninth straight week of losses, the longest run on record. President Christine. Lagarde reiterated on Friday that the ECB isn’t discussing cuts in interest rates. She told reporters after a meeting of the Eurogroup that the level of borrowing costs and the length of time they stay elevated “will matter significantly,” without elaborating.
Equity funds saw the biggest weekly inflow in 18 months amid growing investor confidence the US economy is headed for a soft landing. Global stocks attracted $25.3 billion in the week to Sept. 13, the most since March 2022, according to EPFR data. “It looks like ‘happy hour’ for the market,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM. “To confirm the bull case, high cash piles must find their way into markets, and next week the Fed could send signals to initiate such action.”
European equities rallied after better-than-expected economic data in China fueled hopes stimulus measures are paying off. Euro Stoxx 50 climbs 1%. CAC 40 outperforms peers, adding 1.5%, boosted by exposure to luxury companies. Consumer products, autos and travel are the strongest performing sectors.
Earlier in the session, Asia stocks also rallied after Chinese industrial production and retail sales statistics beat estimates. The Chinese data showed the economy picking up steam in August as a summer travel boom and a heftier stimulus push boosted consumer spending and factory output. Here are the most notable European movers:
European luxury shares rise after Chinese industrial production and retail sales data beat estimates, easing fears consumers in the world’s second-largest economy would no longer be able to fuel growth for the sector.
Games Workshop shares jump as much as 11% after the table-top games maker said that recent trading was ahead of its expectations, with Jefferies saying that the quarter has been “outstanding” and Peel Hunt noting robust growth. Both brokers highlighted a successful launch for the company’s ‘Warhammer 40,000 Leviathan’ boxed set.
MorphoSys shares gain as much as 9.5% to the highest since January 2022 after Goldman Sachs upgraded its recommendation on the German biotech firm to neutral from sell ahead of results from a late-stage study.
Vitrolife shares rise as much 8.8% after Handelsbanken raised its short-term recommendation to buy from hold, citing the stock’s steep decline.
Pharming shares gain as much as 6.2% after Kempen upgraded the stock to buy from neutral, saying the Dutch biopharmaceutical company is “in growth mode” as it expands the sales opportunity for its Joenja drug.
H&M shares drop as much as 5.8%, the most since March, after the Swedish clothing retailer reported 3Q sales that missed estimates. The “flattish” net sales in local currencies suggest limited pricing power and a lack of traction with shoppers on product ranges, according to Bernstein.
ASML and other European chip-equipment stocks fall on Friday after Reuters reported that TSMC asked its major suppliers to delay shipment of high-end chipmaking equipment.
In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index is near flat. Yen and Canadian dollar are the weakest performers among G-10 peers.
In rates, Treasuries grind lower in early US session with futures near lows of the day, following wider losses in core European rates that pare most of Thursday’s post-ECB gains. Parallel yield shift across the curve leaves curve spreads little changed. US session has heavy economic data slate, headed by industrial production. US yields are cheaper by 3bp to 4bp across the curve with 10-year around 4.32%, cheaper by ~3.5bp on the day, outperforming bunds and gilts by 2.5bp and 3bp in the sector; both UK and German curves cheaper by 4bp to 6bp on the day. Dollar IG issuance slate empty so far with muted activity expected; three names priced $2.1b Thursday, taking weekly total above $34bn.
In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 0.3% higher to trade near $90.44. Spot gold rises roughly $7 to trade near $1,918/oz.
Bitcoin is a touch firmer on the session, holding around the USD 26.5k mark with newsflow light to end a busy week ahead of a particularly busy week for Central Bank activity.
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include industrial production and capacity utilisation for August, the Empire State manufacturing survey for September, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Villeroy.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,509.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 464.76
MXAP up 0.6% to 164.01
MXAPJ up 0.7% to 509.24
Nikkei up 1.1% to 33,533.09
Topix up 0.9% to 2,428.38
Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 18,182.89
Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,117.74
Sensex up 0.4% to 67,761.76
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 7,279.03
Kospi up 1.1% to 2,601.28
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.65%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.0665
Brent Futures up 0.5% to $94.17/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,917.57
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.18% to 105.21
Top Overnight News
China economic data came in strong for Aug, with retail sales +4.6% Y/Y (up from +2.5% in Jul and ahead of the Street’s +3% forecast) and industrial production +4.5% (up from +3.7% in Jul and ahead of the Street’s +3.9% forecast). BBG
China injects more liquidity via its medium-term lending facility (the net injection was CNY191B), the second easing measure in as many days (after the RRR cut yesterday morning). BBG
Republican lawmakers are pressing the Biden administration to completely cut off Huawei Technologies Co. and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. from their American suppliers after Huawei launched a new phone using highly advanced technology the US has been trying to keep out of China’s hands. BBG
The US government believes Chinese defense minister Li Shangfu has been placed under investigation in the latest sign of turmoil among elite members of Beijing’s military and foreign policy establishment. FT
BOJ officials see a discrepancy between what Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a recent interview and how traders interpreted the remarks, according to people familiar with the matter. Most of what Ueda said in the Yomiuri newspaper interview published Saturday was consistent with his routine remarks of late. Taken in total, his comments indicate little change in the view among officials that they’ll need to weigh both upside and downside risks in deciding whether to adjust policies. BBG
Italian and Portuguese politicians lashed out at the ECB’s latest rate hike, with the Italian Deputy PM Matteo Salvini accusing Christine Lagarde of “living on Mars.” Elsewhere, ECB officials Madis Muller and Luis de Guindos said current levels are probably sufficient to return inflation to the 2% target, reducing chances of further rate increases. BBG
House Republicans begin working on a 30-day continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown at the end of the month (the proposal will receive pushback from the Dem-controlled Senate, but it could form the basis for negotiations). The Hill
AAPL is relying on aggressive carrier subsidies to drive iPhone sales following a relatively underwhelming iPhone 15 debut. WSJ
Ford and GM shares fell premarket as 12,700 auto workers went on strike at targeted plants; Stellantis was little changed in Paris. Sites affected include a Ford factory in Michigan that makes the Bronco SUV, a GM facility in Missouri and a plant in Ohio that builds the Jeep Wrangler. It’s the first time the UAW has taken action against the Big Three legacy Detroit carmakers simultaneously. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks gained after global risk was fuelled by the upside in Europe and the US, while sentiment was also bolstered by better-than-expected Chinese activity data. ASX 200 was boosted with miners leading the advances seen across all sectors following the reserve ratio cut in China which is expected to release over CNY 500bln of liquidity for Australia’s largest trading partner and with recent comments from RBA watcher McCrann that there will likely be no more rate hikes. Nikkei 225 extended its gains amid notable outperformance in power companies and with SoftBank boosted after shares in its Arm unit climbed 25% in its US debut. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both initially underpinned by the encouraging Chinese activity data in which Industrial Production and Retail Sales both topped forecasts, while attention was also on the PBoC which recently cut the RRR by 25bps but maintained its 1-year MLF rate at 2.50%, although Shanghai Comp later faded into the red.
Top Asian News
PBoC announced CNY 591bln (CNY 400bln maturing) through 1-year MLF with the rate maintained at 2.50%.
China reportedly told brokers to cut FX trading to shore up a weak yuan, according to Bloomberg.
PBoC injected CNY 105bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 1.80% and CNY 34bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.95% (prev. 2.15%).
China’s NBS said the economy saw accelerated demand but domestic demand remains insufficient and the foundation of the economic recovery needs to be consolidated. Furthermore, the stats bureau stated the domestic economy is recovering but still faces difficulties and that China should focus on expanding domestic demand.
US senior House Republicans urged the US Commerce Department to toughen export controls against Huawei and SMIC citing the new advanced smartphone from Huawei.
Sino-Ocean Group (3377 HK) announced the suspension of trading of offshore USD securities and said the group has been in talks with creditors, while it noted that the optimal path forward is holistic restructuring and payments under all of its offshore debts will be suspended until holistic restructuring and/or extension are implemented.
JP Morgan upgrades China’s 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.0% (prev. 4.8%); Goldman Sachs maintains China’s Q3 GDP growth forecast 4.9% YY while acknowledging elevated uncertainties surrounding the property sector.
BoJ is said to see continued upside risks to the price outlook and discrepancy between recent comments by Governor Ueda and how traders interpreted the comments, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, as sentiment picks up following constructive Chinese data and after yesterday’s ECB announcement, despite subsequent sources. Sectors are mostly in the green with Consumer Products & Services the major outperformer, given Luxury names; with sectors exposed to China also underpinned. At the other end of the spectrum, Chip names are pressured following a Reuters source piece that TSMC told vendors to delay chip equipment delivery, citing nervousness about consumer demand. Stateside, futures are flat/mixed after the modest rally on Thursday, ES +0.1%; Arm gave the NQ +0.1% a helping hand and continues to climb in the pre-market. US auto names are pressured in pre-market trade as strike action commences; Ford (F) -1.7%.
Top European News
Several of the ECB’s more hawkish rate-setters believe that rates could rise again in December, in the scenario of hot wages and inflation, via FT citing sources. Three individuals involved in the September meeting said if EZ inflation were above forecast the door remains open to a hike in December, when the next set of projections are provided. One respondent said a “very negative surprise” on inflation would be needed for an October move.
ECB’s de Guindos says both headline and core CPI will continue to ease, any future cuts will depend on multiple factors, via Cope radio.
ECB’s Muller says no additional hikes expected in the coming months, though higher inflation could merit a further hike.
ECB’s President Lagarde says ECB will return to 2% inflation target, will set rates at restrictive level as long as needed for it.
ECB’s Kazaks says this week’s rate decision was not a ‘dovish hike’; does not preclude future decisions
ECB TLTRO.III September early repayment figure (EUR): 34.2bln (prev. 29.5bln).
Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey – August 2023: Median expectations of the rate of inflation over the coming year were 3.6%, up from 3.5% in May 2023.
FX
DXY idles above 105.000 after Thursday’s near 100 tick bounce on a combination of Euro losses and strong US data releases.
Yen retreats amidst a rebound in UST yields towards YTD lows vs. USD circa 147.87 after hitting resistance ahead of 147.00.
Yuan rebounds as Chinese activity data beats consensus and PBoC cuts 14-day reverse repo to provide more stimulus.
USD/CNY and USD/CNH probe 7.2500 and 7.2600 respectively.
Aussie extends gains vs Buck to 0.6470+ as iron ore soars.
Sterling and Euro recover as Gilts and EGBs retreat further than Treasuries
Cable back above 200 DMA after bounce from 1.2400, EUR/USD off multiple lows within 1.0635-69 range.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1786 vs exp. 7.2849 (prev. 7.1874)
Fixed Income
Bonds in freefall following deeper reversal from post-ECB highs through levels prevalent prior to the ‘dovish’ hike.
Bunds towards base of 131.27-130.43 range, Gilts nearer 95.39 than 96.08 and T-note hovering close to 109-15+ having peaked at 109-28+.
Multiple factors weighing on debt including better-than-forecast Chinese data, ongoing strength in crude prices and hawkish ECB/BoJ sources.
Commodities
WTI and Brent futures are firmer intraday but off best levels, with overnight gains fuelled by the broader constructive tone and better-than-expected Chinese activity data.
Spot gold held onto the USD 1,900/oz handle yesterday despite the gains in the DXY, with the yellow metal climbing north of USD 1,915/oz in APAC trade, and briefly topped its 21 DMA (1,918.55/oz) as it eyes its 200 DMA at USD 1,921.93/oz.
Metals are relatively mixed and off best levels after seeing some upside on the aforementioned Chinese data, with 3M LME copper briefly rising above USD 8,500/t before waning alongside the mainland Chinese stock market.
Qatar set November-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at about USD 2.73/bbl above Dubai quotes.
Turkish Energy Minister says a survey of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline is complete with a report expected soon; the pipeline will soon be technically operational.
Geopolitics
Russia seeks to expand its naval presence in the Mediterranean in which it wants access for its warships to a Mediterranean port in Libya, according to WSJ.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Sept. Empire Manufacturing +1.9, est. -10.0, prior -19.0
08:30: Aug. Import Price Index YoY, est. -2.8%, prior -4.4%
Aug. Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
Aug. Export Price Index YoY, est. -6.8%, prior -7.9%
Aug. Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.7%
09:15: Aug. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 1.0%
Aug. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.1%, prior 0.5%
Aug. Capacity Utilization, est. 79.3%, prior 79.3%
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 69.0, prior 69.5
Sept. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 74.8, prior 75.7
Sept. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 65.0, prior 65.5
Sept. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 3.5%, prior 3.5%
Sept. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
If you thought patrolling a laser quest party for my twins was hard work two weeks ago, tomorrow we have a private party for Maisie’s 8th birthday at the local swimming pool. So I’ll be doing my best David Hasselhoff impression and operating as a lifeguard. Problem is Maisie is already 10x the swimmer I am so I’m hoping my skills won’t be required.
Markets haven’t required much saving over the last 24 hours, with risk assets posting a strong advance overcoming several potential pitfalls. Among others, we had a 25bp rate hike from the ECB, which was mostly expected by markets but went against the consensus of economists who were forecasting a pause. Then we had another relatively strong round of US data, which kept the idea of a further Fed hike firmly on the table. And if that wasn’t enough, oil prices hit another YTD high as Brent Crude surpassed $93/bbl (+1.98%), which raised the prospect of even more inflationary pressures still in the pipeline. We’re up above $94 in Asia. Countering this, China cut its RRR rate yesterday and their monthly data dump this morning was better than expected. Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water watch out for triple witching today which brings huge volumes of derivative contracts simultaneously expiring across the board.
We’ll start with the ECB, who after much speculation announced a 25bp rate hike yesterday, which took their deposit rate up to 4%. That’s the highest level for the deposit rate since the ECB’s creation, exceeding the previous peak back in 2000. And having now delivered 450bps of rate hikes over the last 15 months, it also marks the fastest pace of tightening they’ve ever done as well. Indeed, even if you go back before the ECB’s formation and look at previous tightening episodes from the German Bundesbank, they’ve now delivered as much tightening in the space of 15 months as the Bundesbank did from the start of our data in 1948.
President Lagarde said that a “solid majority” were in favour of the decision to hike rates (which sounds less convincing than the “large” or “overwhelming” majorities seen in the recent past). The Governing Council’s statement said they thought rates were now at levels that if “maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target.” The statement also said that “future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.”
In its forecasts, the ECB raised the inflation projections for this year to +5.6% (vs. 5.4% in June), and for 2024 to +3.2% (vs. +3.0% in June), although this was largely due to energy prices with the core inflation projection a touch lower for 2024 and 2025. So the recent oil price rise may have played a sizeable part in the rationale for yesterday’s hike. The growth forecast was revised down as the ECB pushed out its expected recovery from H2-23 to H1-24, with 2024 growth downgraded half a point to +1.0% as a result.
Obviously the question for markets is whether that’s it for the ECB’s tightening cycle, though President Lagarde said “we can’t say” that. Our European economists see a mild hawkish bias persisting, but with a long pause being the baseline. In their view, it would take a substantial surprise relative to ECB expectations to deliver another hike, with duration of restrictive policy now the more relevant policy dimension. See their full ECB reaction note here.
Looking forward, markets are now pricing a 45% likelihood of another hike from the ECB by year-end. So as with the Fed, investors are clearly still alive to the prospect of further hikes. But in spite of that, we actually saw a big reduction in bond yields over the day, with 10yr bunds (-5.8bps) and OATs (-6.9bps) seeing their strongest rally in two weeks, possibly because the market thinks the ECB is getting ahead of the inflation curve or that they are over hiking and taking the economy to a recession and will have to cut sooner. The strong equity performance (see below) might argue against the latter interpretation! Italy’s BTPs (-10.7bps) outperformed, also helped by President Lagarde’s comments noting the importance of PEPP flexibility, suggesting a high hurdle for early exit from PEPP reinvestments that are part of the ECB’s anti-fragmentation toolkit. The euro itself also weakened noticeably, ending the day -0.86% lower against the US Dollar at $1.065, which is the second lowest close (and the largest daily decline) since March.
The stronger dollar narrative was also buoyed by greater optimism about the state of the US economy, with a fresh round of data that added to hopes of a soft landing. First up, the retail sales numbers for August grew by +0.6% (vs. +0.1% expected), and the measure excluding autos and gas was also up +0.2% (vs. -0.1% expected). Within the details of the print, retail control (which enters goods spending in GDP) was actually a touch below consensus when accounting for revisions. But this is still tracking at a strong 5% annualised in Q3, according to our US economists. Secondly, the weekly initial jobless claims came in at 220k (vs. 225k expected) over the week ending September 9, which takes the 4-week moving average down to its lowest level since late February.
Treasury yields saw choppy price action around the US releases and the ECB meeting but a risk-on mood prevailed, with yields moving higher across the curve. The 10yr yield was up +3.8bps to 4.29%, while the 2yr rose back above 5% (+4.3bp to 5.01%). Those moves were given further momentum by the latest PPI data for August, which also showed that inflation was a bit stronger than thought, with the headline measure at a monthly +0.7% (vs. +0.4% expected). So that was certainly consistent with the prospect that the Fed could yet deliver another hike by the end of the year, and futures are still pricing in a 43% likelihood they’ll do so. This was a slight decline from 47% the day before, but with end-24 Fed funds pricing (+7.7bp) closing at a new high of 4.50%.
For equities, this was all great news, and the economic optimism led to a strong rally on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, the S&P 500 posted both the strongest (+0.84%) and the broadest advance so far this month, with 429 of its constituents and each of the 24 industry groups positive on the day. Bank stocks (+1.79%) were among the strongest performers in the S&P 500, while small cap stocks also outperformed with the Russell 2000 up +1.40%. Over in Europe, the gains were even stronger, and the STOXX 600 surged +1.52% to a one-month high, whilst the FTSE 100 (+1.95%) had its best daily performance since last November.
The other big story in the background has been the ongoing rise in commodity prices, and oil in particular. Yesterday saw Brent Crude close above $93/bbl for the first time so far in 2023 (+1.98% to $93.70), having traded above $94/bbl late it the day. It has moved higher overnight, trading at $94.50/bbl as I type. The ongoing oil price rally is likely to lead to further pressure on gasoline prices. Separately, another potential risk for commodities (including food prices) is the current El Nino event, and yesterday we got the latest forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Center. They said there was now a 73% likelihood that this current El Nino develops into a strong one over Q4, which would be the first time we’ve had a strong one since the 2014-16 event.
Overnight in Asia risk on continues alongside a batch of China’s economic data for August that came in better than anticipated. The Hang Seng (+1.58%) is leading gains even if mainland Chinese markets are a bit more subdued, with the CSI (+0.07%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.27%) only edging up. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.34%) and the KOSPI (+1.30%) are sharply higher. S&P 500 (+0.20%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.23%) futures are moving higher.
Coming back to China, industrial output as well as retail sales picked up in August indicating that the recent flurry of support measures may be slowly starting to have an effect. Industrial production advanced +4.5% y/y in August (v/s +3.9% expected), faster than the +3.7% increase in July while retail sales grew by +4.6% y/y in August beating market expectations for a +3.0% gain as against a rise of +2.5% in July. However, Fixed asset investment grew by 3.2% y/y in August on a year-to-date basis missing market expectations for a +3.3% increase, and slower than last month’s +3.4% uptick.
Additionally, the Chinese central bank further ramped up stimulus by adding a net 191 billion yuan into the financial system via a one-year policy loan, a day after announcing another cut (+25 bps) to lenders’ reserve requirements. According to some estimates, this measure is expected to free up as much as 500 billion yuan. The central bank kept the medium-term lending facility (MLF) borrowing cost unchanged at 2.5%, after a surprise 15bps cut last month. The Chinese yuan has risen by +0.31%, trading at 7.57 against the dollar following the August data releases while yields on the 10yr government bonds moved higher by +2.3bps to 2.65% as we go to print.
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include industrial production and capacity utilisation for August, the Empire State manufacturing survey for September, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Villeroy.
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/
Sentiment improves after Chinese data, DXY over 105.00, Yuan rebound & JPY pressured – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 – 06:47 AM
European bourses are in the green as sentiment improves after constructive Chinese data
Though, US futures are more contained with specifics light into Quad Witching
DXY idles above 105.00, JPY pressured as yields lift despite sources while Yuan rebounds on mentioned data
Fixed benchmarks under pressure in a marked reversal of post-ECB highs with multiple factors weighing
Crude benchmarks firmer intraday, though shy of best, metals more mixed
Looking ahead, highlights include US UoM Sentiment, NY Fed Manufacturing, Import & Export Prices. CBR’s Nabiullina, Quad Witching.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, as sentiment picks up following constructive Chinese data and after yesterday’s ECB announcement, despite subsequent sources.
Sectors are mostly in the green with Consumer Products & Services the major outperformer, given Luxury names; with sectors exposed to China also underpinned.
At the other end of the spectrum, Chip names are pressured following a Reuters source piece that TSMC told vendors to delay chip equipment delivery, citing nervousness about consumer demand.
Stateside, futures are flat/mixed after the modest rally on Thursday, ES +0.1%; Arm gave the NQ +0.1% a helping hand and continues to climb in the pre-market.
US auto names are pressured in pre-market trade as strike action commences; Ford (F) -1.7%.
WTI and Brent futures are firmer intraday but off best levels, with overnight gains fuelled by the broader constructive tone and better-than-expected Chinese activity data.
Spot gold held onto the USD 1,900/oz handle yesterday despite the gains in the DXY, with the yellow metal climbing north of USD 1,915/oz in APAC trade, and briefly topped its 21 DMA (1,918.55/oz) as it eyes its 200 DMA at USD 1,921.93/oz.
Metals are relatively mixed and off best levels after seeing some upside on the aforementioned Chinese data, with 3M LME copper briefly rising above USD 8,500/t before waning alongside the mainland Chinese stock market.
Qatar set November-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at about USD 2.73/bbl above Dubai quotes.
Turkish Energy Minister says a survey of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline is complete with a report expected soon; the pipeline will soon be technically operational.
UAW President announced workers’ strikes at the Stellantis (STLA) Toledo Jeep plant, Ford’s (F) Bronco assembly plant in Michigan and GM’s (GM) Wentzville mid-size truck plant from midnight, while Ford said the UAW made a counterproposal but showed little movement from initial demands.
Several of the ECB’s more hawkish rate-setters believe that rates could rise again in December, in the scenario of hot wages and inflation, via FT citing sources. Three individuals involved in the September meeting said if EZ inflation were above forecast the door remains open to a hike in December, when the next set of projections are provided. One respondent said a “very negative surprise” on inflation would be needed for an October move.
ECB’s de Guindos says both headline and core CPI will continue to ease, any future cuts will depend on multiple factors, via Cope radio.
ECB’s Muller says no additional hikes expected in the coming months, though higher inflation could merit a further hike.
ECB’s President Lagarde says ECB will return to 2% inflation target, will set rates at restrictive level as long as needed for it.
ECB’s Kazaks says this week’s rate decision was not a ‘dovish hike’; does not preclude future decisions
ECB TLTRO.III September early repayment figure (EUR): 34.2bln (prev. 29.5bln).
Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey – August 2023: Median expectations of the rate of inflation over the coming year were 3.6%, up from 3.5% in May 2023.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
EU Wages In Euro Zone (Q2 2023) 4.6% (Prev. 4.6%); Labour Costs YY (Q2 2023) 4.5% (Prev. 5.0%)
CBR hikes by 100bps as expected to 13.00%; sees its key rate in the 9.6-9.7% range (prev. view 7.9-8.3%)).
GEOPOLITICS
Russia seeks to expand its naval presence in the Mediterranean in which it wants access for its warships to a Mediterranean port in Libya, according to WSJ.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is a touch firmer on the session, holding around the USD 26.5k mark with newsflow light to end a busy week ahead of a particularly busy week for Central Bank activity.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks gained after global risk was fuelled by the upside in Europe and the US, while sentiment was also bolstered by better-than-expected Chinese activity data.
ASX 200 was boosted with miners leading the advances seen across all sectors following the reserve ratio cut in China which is expected to release over CNY 500bln of liquidity for Australia’s largest trading partner and with recent comments from RBA watcher McCrann that there will likely be no more rate hikes.
Nikkei 225 extended its gains amid notable outperformance in power companies and with SoftBank boosted after shares in its Arm unit climbed 25% in its US debut.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both initially underpinned by the encouraging Chinese activity data in which Industrial Production and Retail Sales both topped forecasts, while attention was also on the PBoC which recently cut the RRR by 25bps but maintained its 1-year MLF rate at 2.50%, although Shanghai Comp later faded into the red.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC announced CNY 591bln (CNY 400bln maturing) through 1-year MLF with the rate maintained at 2.50%.
China reportedly told brokers to cut FX trading to shore up a weak yuan, according to Bloomberg.
PBoC injected CNY 105bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 1.80% and CNY 34bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.95% (prev. 2.15%).
China’s NBS said the economy saw accelerated demand but domestic demand remains insufficient and the foundation of the economic recovery needs to be consolidated. Furthermore, the stats bureau stated the domestic economy is recovering but still faces difficulties and that China should focus on expanding domestic demand.
US senior House Republicans urged the US Commerce Department to toughen export controls against Huawei and SMIC citing the new advanced smartphone from Huawei.
Sino-Ocean Group (3377 HK) announced the suspension of trading of offshore USD securities and said the group has been in talks with creditors, while it noted that the optimal path forward is holistic restructuring and payments under all of its offshore debts will be suspended until holistic restructuring and/or extension are implemented.
JP Morgan upgrades China’s 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.0% (prev. 4.8%); Goldman Sachs maintains China’s Q3 GDP growth forecast 4.9% YY while acknowledging elevated uncertainties surrounding the property sector.
BoJ is said to see continued upside risks to the price outlook and discrepancy between recent comments by Governor Ueda and how traders interpreted the comments, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Industrial Production YY (Aug) 4.5% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 3.7%)
Chinese Retail Sales YY (Aug) 4.6% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.5%)
Chinese House Prices YY (Aug) -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
“Better-than-expected growth in industrial output and retail sales, among others, in August also presented fresh confidence that the Chinese economy could meet its annual growth target, analysts said. ” via Global Times
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8,81 PTS OR 0.28% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 134.97 PTS OR 0.75%/ /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 364.79 PTS OR 1.10% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.35 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.2772 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.2774 /Oil UP TO 90.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 93.89 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/CHINA/RUSSIA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA /ECONOMIC DATA
A small beat as China’s slumping economy rebounds a bit
(zerohedge)
China Data Dump Largely Beats Estimates As Slumping Economy Finally Rebounds
THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 10:46 PM
In retrospect it was clear that China was poised for a rebound when the latest edition of the BofA Fund Manager Survey published earlier this week – which without fail exposes the prevailing wrong groupthink on Wall Street and is one of the best sources of contrarian alpha – showed that China sentiment had hit rock bottom.
And indeed, just days after we reported that China’s new credit had rebounded sharply in August thanks to a surge in new mortgage loans, leading to a 3.12TN yuan jump in China’s Total Social Financing…
… moments ago we got the latest Chinese data dump for the month of August, which showed that – as expected – the world’s 2nd biggest economy has rebounded from the bottom and may be stabilizing. Here are the highlights:
August Retail sales +4.6%, beating exp. +3.0%, Last +2.5%
August Industrial Output +4.5%, beating exp. +3.9%, Last +3.7%
Jan-Aug Fixed Investment +3.2%, missing exp. +3.3%, Last 3.4%
Jan-Aug Property Development investment -8.8%, Last -8.5%
China apparent oil demand +22.7% to 14.74mm b/d, unchanged from July
New property construction falls -24.4% YTD y/y to 639MM sq.m
August new home prices, excluding affordable housing, -0.29% m/m
And while we would report the most important data point of all, China’s record youth unemployment which last month hit a record high of 21.3% (and which according to some is now 50% or more), we can’t because Beijing decided to suspend the data series in August after it was clear that the only way to avoid exposing the collapse of China’s labor market was to stop reporting about it altogether.
Commenting on the data dump, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said that domestic demand expanded as supportive policies were rolled out and employment situation improved in August, but challenges remain.
The domestic economy is still facing “structural and cyclical problems” and policy makers’ focus will be on expanding domestic demand, NBS spokesman Fu Linghui said at a briefing in Beijing Friday. Still, officials expect the domestic economy to continue to recover and improve.
Frances Cheung, a rates strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking in Singapore, agreed and after the report said that China’s August economic data points to some some stabilization in economic activities, which will set a floor to CNY interest rates, says “The improvement in industrial production and retail sales is encouraging”
Cheung also said that the policy strategy appears to be putting forward numerous measures within a short period of time to achieve some amplified impact, and added that “the outsized MLF together with the more permanent liquidity released from the RRR cut shall provide a strong support to the market.” The unchanged MLF rate suggests policy focus moves away from the price of money to more direct support via fiscal spending and liquidity injection; The cut in the rate on the 14-day reverse repo is simply a catch-up.
END
CHINA/
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
EUROPE
The soaring state of renting in Europe;
(zerohedge)
The (Soaring) State Of Renting In Europe
FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 – 05:45 AM
According to rental platform Housing Anywhere International, both Lisbon and Porto saw a 25 percent increase in the cost of renting an apartment in April through June 2023 compared to the same three month period last year.
The following chart is based on an analysis of more than 64,000 properties across 23 European cities. The following chart looks at the median rental price for a fully-furnished 1-bedroom apartment which are mostly geared towards mobile talents, i.e. young professionals and international students mostly aged between 18 and 35. More than 95.8 percent of the analyzed properties were fully furnished and 58 percent included bills.
In the same time period, Hungary’s capital of Budapest has seen its median price for an apartment jump by an astonishing 43 percent year-on-year to €1,100. Meanwhile, in Italy’s Florence and Turin, which have historically had much lower prices for renting accommodation than other parts of the country are starting to catch up as Florence saw a surge in its rental apartments of 21 percent (to a median of €1,700) and Turin saw a 12.5 percent (€900) increase.
Several phenomena are at work here.
Firstly, Europe is in the midst of a housing shortage crisis, which is pushing up the cost of renting an apartment drastically in many of the continent’s cities. But at the same time, new policies from the Covid work from home era mean that more ‘mobile talent’, or young skilled workers, are moving abroad, where they are driving up prices.
According to the report, the ranking of the biggest year on year changes varies depending on room type. When it comes to apartments, Budapest (42.9 percent), The Hague (27.8 percent), Utrecht (25.8 percent), Porto (25 percent) and Lisbon (15.8 percent) are the most extreme cases of the 23 analyzed cities.
In terms of the year on year change of a private room, however, it is: Lisbon (29.4 percent), The Hague (28.6 percent), Berlin (22.6 percent), Amsterdam (18.8 percent) and Frankfurt am Main (16.9 percent). While for studios it is: Lisbon (70.3 percent), Florence (33.3 percent), Hamburg (27.4 percent), The Hague (23.8 percent) and Porto (23.3 percent). Notably, both Lisbon and the Hague appear in all three of the top 5 roundups.
END
ITALY
Salvini is correct!
(Remix)
“A Declaration Of War On Europe” – Salvini Says 6,000 Migrants Landing On 1 Day Threatens To Collapse Italian Society
Social media has been awash with videos of migrants storming the shores of Italy in recent days, and Italy’s nominally conservative government is being forced to respond.
Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, known for his hawkish stance on immigration during his tenure as interior minister in 2018, said on Wednesday that when 120 boats filled with migrants arrive on the shores of Italy at the same time, “it is not a spontaneous phenomenon, it is a declaration of war on Europe.”
The deputy prime minister of the right-wing government in Rome, who currently heads the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, referred to the fact that the boats with approximately 6,000 migrants docked on the island of Lampedusa in one day. He stressed that the problem was not exclusive to Lampedusa and that the situation threatened to “collapse Italian society as a whole.”
Salvini said he is convinced that mass migration to Europe was being orchestrated by criminal organizations, including human trafficking organizations. He added that Europe had completely abandoned Italy to protect its land and maritime borders and that Rome should act on its own to further tighten national security and migration regulations.
Salvini first met with League ministers, state secretaries and parliamentarians behind closed doors, before holding a press conference at the headquarters of the Foreign Correspondents’ Association in Rome. He also presented the issues on the RAI evening news program.
“The united center-right that came to government almost a year ago is working well in Italy, the same united center-right that gives us hope to make a difference in Europe,” Salvini said.
Video footage of boat after boat made waves on social media, with it serving as a visceral reminder of the spiraling immigration crisis Europe is facing.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ran on a campaign platform of blocking migrants and setting up a “naval blockade;” however, since coming to power, she has overseen a record number of illegal migrants arriving in Italy and has even approved plans for Italy to accept over 400,000 non-EU legal migrants per year.
Salvini, who managed to reduce illegal immigration dramatically when he served as interior minister, appears to value unity with Meloni at the moment and is not showing any public signs that he is ready to challenge his coalition partner. As Remix News previously reported, despite Meloni’s U-turn on immigration, she has maintained strong polling numbers in Italy, and the country’s growing immigration crisis does not appear to have dented her appeal with voters.
Salvini stated that uniting European conservatives and moderates is the only way to “send the socialists home,” referring to the European Parliament elections next year. He noted that the stakes of the elections amount to the future of Europe.
The immigration crisis could galvanize voters to swing to the right, but it could also backfire, especially if the scenes in Lampedusa and elsewhere in Italy begin to filter to the broader Italian populace, who may start to view the ruling the conservative government with skepticism. The EU, for its part, has done little to aid Italy, and if anything, could turn the screws on Meloni’s government if she takes any significant action to stem the immigration crisis.
Salvini also announced that on Saturday and Sunday the traditional annual meeting of the League, to be held in Pontida, Lombardy, will be attended by Marine Le Pen, leader of the French National Rally. Le Pen has come out in support of Salvini since the Meloni government formed, saying she is more ideologically aligned with the League party leader. Le Pen, in particular, says she rejects Meloni’s foreign policy stances.
The League leader also touched on the war in Ukraine, saying that a small state like the Vatican is doing more to stop the conflict than many major powers. Salvini said that Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, who is leading the peace mission launched by Pope Francis and is in Beijing for talks, has done more than the European Union.
The war in Ukraine remains another major point of contention between Salvini and Meloni, with Salvini seeking to disengage Italy from sending weapons to Ukraine, whereas Meloni has taken a more pro-Brussels stance and sought to escalate Italy’s role in the conflict.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE//USA
ROBERT H TO US:
Biden approves transfer of ATACMS tactical missiles to Ukraine
These fools are beyond crazy in trying to invoke a wider conflict. Russia will respond and the response will be severe. Meanwhile, it seems the fact that the Panama Canal is shut down over the excuse of low water would be amusing, if not so serious. Ships are raised and lowered in the locks by water being pumped in and out. Actual lake levels are irrelevant. 40% of all water borne containers pass through the canal daily. The none delivery or extended delivery around the Tip of South America will cause pronounced additional costs and delays to trade. When you remove trade activity you lower actual velocity of money in circulation. Can anyone spell contraction? Because economic activity will decline and volumes of goods moving to delivery will be way down. Sources tell of extended shut down. Perhaps, this is how China shows Neocons who is boss, since they own the canal. Panama sold to them for cash after Jimmy Carter gave it back to them. In any case, expect Western economies to worsen very quickly as this is far more serious than the recent Suez Canal blockage. And yes those pesky Chinese subs lurk off the coast of Cuba.
A little-known fact about Vladimir Putin | Forexlive
What you are seeing from Russia today is a philosophy that is being executed on his Thesis. And if demented fools could read and understand. They would realize that Neocon adventures of war against Russia is a fool’s errand. Because he is playing chess while Western leadership is playing checkers.
“What most casual observers don’t know is that Putin has a law degree where he specialized in international trade. Secondly, he earned a PhD in economics while writing his thesis on: “Strategic Planning of the Reproduction of the Mineral Resource Base of a Region under Conditions of the Formation of Market Relations”Do not be fooled by mindless chatter of spending money that does not exist or hollow threats of destruction. Apart from what you have seen being perfected on the battlefield testing ground of Ukraine is already old hat as Russia is advancing weaponry many years advanced over what is disclosed. Tomorrow will not just see new drones or missiles but new laser weapons already existent being advanced beyond what has been demonstrated. The West is truly naive of what Russia is doing or even how Russians see themselves. Russians do not see themselves as European or Asian but a civilization between unique made up culturally distinct from either one. With over 74 trillion in natural in ground resources Russia is using its natural wealth as its’ foreign policy of engagement with the world at large. While remaining confident in itself to defend against invaders. This is what drives the Neocons nuts because they simply are not in the game.
Threads, Meta’s recent competitor to Twitter, is facing harsh criticism for blocking search results for terms related to the pandemic, including vaccines.
The new text platform, which is linked to Instagram, rolled out its new search function last week, a major step towards giving it more parity with X, formerly known as Twitter.
After Threads’ July release, Meta has been rolling out several much needed updates in recent weeks, including a requested desktop version and user search functionality.
However, within 24 hours of the recent update, the social media giant was hit with controversy, as the new search function proved useless for those wanting to look for posts related to the COVID-19, reported The Washington Post.
Threads Users Shocked to Find Search Results Blocked
Many users were upset when their search on Threads for content related to “COVID” and “vaccines” was met with a blank screen and a pop-up redirecting them to the website of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“Zuck treats users like children. He gets to decide what they will see and talk about. This is reason alone enough to reject Threads and embrace X,” said Michael Robertson, a tech CEO, in a post on X.
Meta confirmed its search policy restrictions in a press statement, saying that the text platform is blocking users from searching for words that could bring up “sensitive” posts, for now.
“The search functionality temporarily doesn’t provide results for keywords that may show potentially sensitive content,” it said.
“People will be able to search for keywords such as ‘COVID’ in future updates once we are confident in the quality of the results.”
Meta acknowledged that Threads was intentionally blocking other terms but declined to provide a list of them.
A search by The Washington Post discovered that the words “sex,” “nude,” “gore,” “porn,” “coronavirus,” “vaccines,” and “vaccination” were also among blocked terms.
Health Experts Decry Censorship
Public health experts and workers also were critical of the company’s decision, telling The Post that its timing was poor, especially amid reports of a recent virus uptick.
“Censorship doesn’t work. Misinfo still gets circulated by code names & other platforms. Tech companies should invest in real solutions like moderation/education,” Lucky Tran, director of science communication at Columbia University, said in a post on X.
Mr. Tran previously told The Post that the decision to censor searches about COVID will make it harder for public health experts and people who work in public health to get out important info to the public about how they can protect themselves.
Hospitalizations in the United States rose nearly 16 percent last week, and have been rising steadily since July, but less than for the same week a year ago, according to the CDC.
CDC statistics show that deaths from the virus are less than a quarter of what they were during the same period in 2022.
The agency said cases of the virus are likely to continue into the winter.
Former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease Director Dr. Anthony Fauci told ABC’s “This Week” over the weekend that given the current level of immunity in the population, “the chances of this being an overwhelming rush of cases and hospitalizations is probably low.”
Meanwhile, the FDA approved another round of COVID boosters on Sept. 11 that are expected be available in the coming days.
New Meta Platform Sees Decrease in Users Since Launch
Meta’s decision to block certain search terms illustrates its desire to avoid encouraging any topics that could be deemed “hard news” on its platform.
“Politics and hard news are inevitably going to show up on Threads—they have on Instagram as well to some extent—but we’re not going to do anything to encourage those verticals,” Adam Mosseri, Instagram’s chief who was instrumental in the launch of Threads, wrote this summer.
However, Twitter’s ability to share real-time news and information was crucial to its rise to prominance and remains one of its core features.
A 2021 survey by the Pew Research Center showed that about 4 in 10 Americans said that social media was an important source for news about the COVID-19 vaccine and virus.
Ever since Threads launched over the summer in an effort to take advantage of some users’ disappointment with X after its take over by Elon Musk, the platform has since failed to maintain its momentum.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg boasted after the launch that he was able to get 100 million new sign-ups within five days of it going live.
“Threads reached 100 million sign ups over the weekend. That’s mostly organic demand and we haven’t even turned on many promotions yet. Can’t believe it’s only been 5 days!,” Mr. Zuckerberg said in a post at the time.
Time spent on the app service has since fallen by 85 percent last month, according to tech blog Similarweb.
The Epoch Times has reached out to Meta for comment.
that it won’t work as COVID is a viral infection, but they all knew, doctors etc. that it is typically bacterial infection seconday to viral infection that kills in these epidemics, pandemics (Yeadon)
No treatment with needed antibiotics, sedation with midazolam & morphine, isolation, dehydration, malnourichment, Remdesivir, and ventilator was the core reason so very many died; these factors along with several more.
In a briefing from Chief of Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defence Forces, General Igor Kirillov, on military biological activities of the United States in the territory of Ukraine, he produced the slide above, in which Russia finally comes out and DIRECTLY accuses the US of being responsible for the creation and release of Covid-19. He clarified they have record of over 16,000 biological samples, including blood and serum samples, transported from Ukraine to the US, Georgia, European countries. He reminded everyone: “In May 2022, Jeffrey Sachs – a leading expert in the respected medical journal The Lancet and professor at Columbia University, the leading academic institution for global biosecurity, told a conference in Spain that ‘..the coronavirus was artificially created and is very likely to have been created using American advances in biotechnology…’.” Killirov directly accused the US Agency of International Development, (USAID), of involvement of the creation of the new Covid variants. Citing that they have been studying coronavirus since 2009 (Obama), and that one of the main contractors for the project was the infamous Biden biolab company, Metabiota, the main source of biological malfeasance in Ukraine.END
Federal Judge Blocks Power-Drunk New Mexico Governor’s Gun Control AttemptDemocrat New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham has been under fire (no pun intended) from both Republicans and Democrats after she “temporarily” suspended the second amendment. Even gun control activist David Hogg shockingly said she went too far with her order to block concealed carry and open carry. Nick Sorter posted to X: “#BREAKING: A federal judge in Albuquerque has …READ THE FULL REPORT
EVOL NEWS
Thousands of Scientists Unite to Expose ‘Climate Crisis’ HoaxREAD MORE…
LATEST NEWS:
CDC: Covid Shots Lower Male Life Expectancy by 24 YearsRead more…REPORT: AOC Likely Violated House Ethics Rules By Listing Her Fiancé As Her ‘Spouse’Read more…Buzbee Does it Again – AG Asst Who Claimed Ken Paxton Took Bribe via Kitchen Remodel Admits Remodel Never Took PlaceRead more…Judge Overrules Democrats, Says Ongoing Obama-Biden DACA Program for Illegal Immigrants is Illegal After Ken Paxton SuitRead more…Brutal Marijuana Studies Now Emerging – It Should Never Have Been Fully LegalizedRead more…Leo Terrell Taunts Nikki Haley, Tells her Donald Trump Won’t Want her Endorsement When She Drops OutRead more…Federal judge again declares that DACA is illegal with issue likely…Read more…Colin Kaepernick’s Hopes Dashed Yet Again As New York Jets Decline to Consider Him for a Replacement QBRead more…
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
LNG/AUSTRALIA
The strike in Australia (Chevron’s LNG facility) will cause huge harm to Europeans this winter as they badly need this expensive form of natural gas.
(zerohedge)
LNG Workers Escalate Strikes At Chevron’s Australian Facilities
Workers at two LNG projects operated by Chevron have stepped up their industrial action that began earlier this week, and plan further escalations in the coming weeks.
While the unions representing the workers have not specified how many hours every day the workers at Gorgon and Wheatstone would strike, Chevron said that it had been notified of rolling 24-hour work stoppages beginning in the early morning today, Bloomberg reports.
The report notes that the industrial action has not yet affected LNG exports from Australia. However, the longer it continues, the higher the chance of shipment disruption. No change in the situation for the better is likely at least until September 22, when a labor market regulator will hear the dispute after Chevron reached out to it in an effort to force the workers to settle.
The supermajor is seeking to get a so-called “intractable bargaining” declaration from the Fair Work Commission, meaning the FWC could force workers to agree to terms proposed by Chevron.
The strikes may not be affecting production yet but, according to ICIS analyst Tom Marzec-Manser, if the strike continues for two weeks, it would shave 1 million tons of LNG off global supply.
If Gorgon and Wheatstone end up getting shut down, in case “there are not competent personnel to undertake handovers during work stoppages,” this would bring further disruption to global LNG supply on the cusp of autumn.
While Chevron is stuck with disagreeing workers, sector player Woodside Energy managed to avert a strike at its North West Shelf LNG facility, averting an even bigger potential disruption to supply.
Woodside’s North West Shelf is the largest LNG production project in Australia, with a capacity of 16.9 million tons annually, followed by Chevron’s Gorgon, which has a capacity of 15.6 million tons. Wheatstone, also operated by Chevron, can produce 8.9 million tons of LNG annually. Together, the three produce about 40 million tons of LNG per year.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//BRICS
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0657 DOWN 0.0022
USA/ YEN 147.88 UP 0.372 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2410 UP 0.0009
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3525 UP .0009 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 9 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.81 PTS OR 0.28%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 134.97 PTS OR .75%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.35% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 124.97 PTS OR 0.75%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.81 PTS OR 0.28%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.35%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 364.79 PTS OR 1.10%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1918.70
silver:$23.15
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 104.93 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.2798
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2779)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.98 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.705…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.338% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.412 UP 6 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.047 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 33.30 POINTS or 0.50%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 88.24 PTS OR 0.56%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 70,15 PTS OR 0.96%
Spain IBEX UP 0.70 PTS OR 0.01%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 22.66 PTS OR 0.08%
WTI Oil price 90.77 12: EST
Brent Oil: 93M74 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 96.81; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 53//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.676 UP 9 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.405 UP 9 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0662 UP 0.0028 OR 28 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2385 DOWN .0015 or 15 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4080% UP 8 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .701%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147,83 UP .380 //YEN DOWN UP 38 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3521 UP .0008 CDN dollar DOWN 8 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 91,02
Brent OIL: 94.09
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.329%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS PTS to 4.414%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 5.037 %
USA dollar index: 104.97 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.98 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 96,81 UP 0 AND 53/100 roubles
GOLD 1922.70
SILVER: 23.04
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 288,87 PTS OR 0.83%
NASDAQ DOWN 271.50 PTS OR 1.75%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.89 UP 1,07 PTS (8,35)%
GLD: $178.34 UP 1.17 OR 0.66%
SLV/ $21.11 UP 0.38 OR 1.83%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Crude Pumped To 10-Mth High As Stagflation-Scares Slam Stocks & Bonds
FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 – 04:00 PM
‘Hope’ continued to soar this week as ‘soft’ survey data soared to its highest since Jan 2022 while ‘hard’ macro data hovered near 6-month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
But it was inflation was spooked everyone (CPI hot, PPI hot, Import/Export prices hot) but UMich sentiment inflation expectations tumbled even as the market’s inflation expectations spiked…
Source: Bloomberg
Also, bear in mind that core retail sales disappointed, industrial production slowed, and headline consumer sentiment declined. So slower growth/demand and higher inflation… brilliant.
The Nasdaq fell for the second week in a row and was the biggest loser while The Dow clung to unchanged…
All the majors fell back below their key technical levels today…
Tech stocks suffered the most this week, while Utes outperformed (even with rising rates). Energy ended around unchanged…
Source: Bloomberg
Semis were hammered lower today…
Source: Bloomberg
The so-called ‘Magnificent 7’ puked today, erasing all of the week’s gains…
Source: Bloomberg
While NFLX was clubbed like a baby seal this week, AI-hero NVDA tumbled for the second straight week, back well below the last earnings level (down 13% from its record high after earnings)…
‘Most Shorted’ stocks fell for the 2nd week in a row (down 6 of the last 7 weeks)…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were sold again today (2nd day in a row) with the selling starting at the European open and going thru the European close. That lifted all yields higher on the week with the long-end underperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y Yield rose back above (and closed above) the key 5.00% level…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the week lower but at the upper end of its intra-week range…
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto was mixed this week with Bitcoin eking out modest gains (back above $26,500) and Ethereum slightly lower. Solana was the ugliest horse in the glue factory…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold (spot) ended the week higher, bouncing strongly to the week’s highs after testing down to $1900 yesterday…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices rose for the 10th week of the last 12 with WTI topping $91, back at levels just prior to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine…
Source: Bloomberg
Is the soaring gas price already having an impact on demand for gasoline?
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, is the AI bubble froth being blown off?
As Vanda Research notes, the allure of AI stocks is steadily waning, with retail investors showing a decline in their net purchases of AI-related stocks. This diminishing interest is further evidenced by a notable reduction in the frequency of Bloomberg stories covering the AI sector.
The analog remains…
And don’t forget that the period from Sept 20-month-end is the worst ‘season’ for US equities…
With the gamma unclench after today’s quad-witch, do you feel lucky?
USA TRADING TODAY:
TUCKER CARLSON..
“Never Embrace Socialism… Or The Siren Song Of Social Justice” – Argentine Presidential Candidate Milei Warns Tucker Of The Dangers Of Statism
THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 09:20 PM
Argentina’s leading presidential candidate Javier Milei – a self-described anarcho-capitalist who won the primaries with 30% of the vote – sat down with Tucker Carlson this week in Buenos Aires for a wide-ranging discussion.
Prior to the interview, Carlson documented first-hand the hyperinflationary perils of statism run wild…
Carlson and Milei talked about why the citizens of Argentina are fed up with the relentless lack of change and the relentless economic decline, echoing many similar patterns taking place in America, with the one-time congressman explaining his platform of radical change which would include the dissolution of numerous socialist institutions and the very central bank which has led Argentina into multiple fiscal crisis events.
Milei’s advice to Americans is simple: “Never embrace the ideas of socialism.”
“Never allow yourselves to be seduced by the siren song of social justice. Don’t get caught up in that terrible concept that where there is a need, there is a right. But that can’t happen on its own.
We have to be prepared for this, and wage a cultural war every single day and we have to be careful because they have no problem with getting inside the State and employing Gramsci’s techniques: seducing the artists, seducing the culture, seducing the media or meddling in educational content.”
Reflecting in the slippery slope of American leftist politics, Carlson noted that Argentina has adopted many left-wing social issues.
“I didn’t fully appreciate the degree to which the Argentinian government had embraced fringe academic, American-style social justice,” Carlson told Milei, adding that “a businessman told me at lunch today that people who identify as transgender pay lower taxes, and that in 2019 you had a Ministry of Women and Diversity created in this country for the first time. What does that ministry do?”
“In theory, it is supposed to deal with women’s issues,” Milei said.
“But when you look at the results, you find there aren’t any. Just writing songs…”
“Are women happier here?” Carlson asked.
“No,” Milei said. “Because there are no real results.”
And added, “why isn’t there a Ministry of Men?”
Then, Milei really touched the third rail… by supporting President Trump, and offering him some advice:
“[Trump] should continue his fight against socialism. Because he is one of the few who truly understood that we are fighting socialism, that we are fighting the statists.
He understood perfectly that the generation of wealth comes from the private sector.
The State does not create wealth, the State destroys it.
The State can give you nothing, because it produces nothing. And when it attempts it, it does so poorly.”
“So I’d say, if I could humbly offer advice, all I could say would be to double down on his efforts in the same direction: defending the ideals of freedom and refusing to give an inch to the socialists,” he continued.
The discussion included Milei’s controversial denouncement of the Pope, his views on abortion, and his belief that climate change is a “socialist lie.”
The first measure consists of an organizational reform of the government, going from 18 to 8 ministries. The ministries to be included are interior, foreign relations, defense, economy, justice, security, infrastructure, and human capital. No career bureaucrats are to be fired initially, but they will be reassigned. The political appointees will not be renewed and will be kept to a minimum. All government employee privileges, such as bodyguards and drivers, will be eliminated, except in the cases in which they are absolutely necessary for security reasons. This measure also includes initiating the privatization or closure process of all state-owned companies.
The second measure consists of a significant reduction in public spending. For the first budget, they seek to eliminate expenditure items amounting to 15 percent of GDP, taking it from a deficit to a surplus. On the revenue side, they seek to eliminate 90 percent of taxes, which only raise an amount equal to 2 percent of GDP but have a distortive effect. There is also an intention of lowering the taxes that remain.
The third measure consists of a flexibilization of labor regulations. Firing an employee is currently very costly in Argentina between litigation and compensation. This measure is geared toward reducing those costs by making it easier for companies to fire new employees. The balancing side of this measure is the implementation of a private unemployment insurance scheme. With this measure they seek to take formal employment in the private sector from 6 million positions to 14 million positions.
The fourth measure consists of a liberalization of trade. The goal of this measure is unilateral free trade in the style of Chile. This includes the elimination of all import and export tariffs and the reduction of regulatory restrictions.
The fifth measure consists of a monetary reform. This measure includes allowing the use of any commodity or foreign currency as legal tender and the liquidation of the central bank, which would result in the elimination of the Argentine Peso. There are alternative plans for the implementation of this measure, but the leading one is the one developed by Emilio Ocampo and Nicolas Cachanosky. In terms of timing, it would take between nine and 24 months. The conversion would be made at the market exchange rate. Once two thirds of the monetary base has been converted, a countdown for the last date to convert would be triggered.
An additional challenge for this measure is that the central bank has remunerated liabilities three times the size of the monetary base. These are like the Federal Reserve’s program of paying interest on reserves in order to sterilize increases in the quantity of money. The central bank does have some commodities and foreign currencies in reserves but most of the assets consist of government bonds that currently trade at a third of their face value. To access the necessary liquidity to liquidate the central bank, the bonds would be transferred to a fund which would acquire the necessary line of credit using the bonds as collateral. The line of credit has already been confidentially agreed upon. The bonds are guaranteed to increase in price if the budget deficit is eliminated as specified in the second measure.
The sixth measure consists of an energy reform. This measure intends to eliminate all subsidies to energy providers through a recalibration of the financial equilibrium to lower costs to keep the companies profitable and minimize the impact on the cost to the consumers. This measure opens a door to subsidies on the demand side for vulnerable households. They also seek to improve the energy infrastructure through a scheme of public interest declarations for projects which would be financed and executed by the private sector, but for which the government might provide a minimum revenue guarantee.
The seventh measure consists of fostering investment. This will be done through a special legal arrangement for long term investment with a focus on mining, fossil fuels, renewable energy, forestry, and other sectors. In order to foster investment, they will also aim to eliminate foreign exchange restrictions and export fees.
The eighth measure consists of an agrarian reform. This includes the elimination of the foreign exchange spread between the official exchange rate and the market exchange rate through the liquidation of the central bank, the elimination of all export fees and retentions, the elimination of the gross revenue tax, the elimination of all restrictions to foreign trade including quotas and the need for authorization, the promulgation of a new seeds law, and the improvement to road infrastructure through private enterprise.
The ninth measure consists of a judicial reform. This measure includes the designation of a Minister of Justice with the consensus of the judicial branch, as well as the appointment of a Supreme Court Justice without political affiliations to fill the present vacancy, prohibiting members of the judicial branch from engaging in partisan politics, and promoting the budgetary independence of the judicial branch. Furthermore, they will seek to implement jury trials and oral proceedings throughout the country.
The tenth measure consists of a welfare reform. Current welfare benefits will be initially maintained. They aim to move in the long term towards a private system in which users pay for the health and education services they consume. In the short term they aim to provide income protection programs to mitigate extreme poverty, nutritional programs, parental educational programs about cognitive stimulation, greater coverage for preschool, incentives for graduation, programs for the integration of people with disabilities, the promotion of access to private credit, and the elimination of all middlemen in the provision of welfare.
The eleventh measure consists of an educational reform. They aim to move towards a greater degree of freedom to choose the curricula, methods, and educators. The measure also includes launching a school voucher pilot program. They will also establish an evaluation criterion for schools so that they may compete for incentives.
The twelfth measure consists of a health reform. They aim to transfer the subsidization of healthcare from supply to demand to allow for greater freedom of choice and competition. This measure includes providing the existing healthcare benefits as vouchers so that there is no restriction to a specific provider.
The thirteenth measure consists of a security reform. This measure includes reforms to the homeland security, national defense, and intelligence laws, as well as a reform to the penitentiary system to incorporate public private hybrids and intensifying the prosecution of drug trafficking.
The Argentine election is on October 22nd.
END
end
II USA DATA
US Manufacturing Production Lower YoY For 6th Straight Month, As Automaker Output Plunges
FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 – 09:24 AM
After surging in July, US Industrial Production was expected to rise very modestly (+0.1% MoM) in August. Instead, despite signals from ISM surveys that the industry is in contraction, industrial production rose 0.5% MoM. That surprise pulled orders up 0.25% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
In August, the drop in the output of motor vehicles and parts contributed to declines in the indexes for consumer durables and transit equipment.
Source: Bloomberg
Most of the other major market groups posted increases in August.
The index for consumer nondurables moved up 0.4 percent, and the index for materials advanced 0.7 percent.
Within materials, energy materials rose 1.5 percent, while non-energy materials edged up 0.1 percent.
The production of defense and space equipment jumped 3.5 percent in August and was up over 10 percent from its year-earlier level.
Narrowing in, we see Manufacturing production also rose (+0.1% MoM as expected) but slower than the +0.4% MoM in July. Manufacturing production remains lower YoY for the sixth straight month.
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that ISM Manufacturing ORDERS continue to significantly diverge from Manufacturers PRODUCTION…
Source: Bloomberg
Presumably that explains the ‘deflationary impulse’ we have seen in goods inflation.
end
The economy and Bidenomics is faltering badly:
UMich Inflation Expectations Plunged In Early September Survey
FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 – 10:05 AM
With CPI and PPI both printing hotter than expected, import and exports prices rising more than expected, and the market’s implied inflation expectation also soaring, this morning’s much-watched UMich inflation expectations index should be a little moot.
Nevertheless, the survey respondents from the UMich survey saw inflation expectations plunging both short- and medium-term…
Source: Bloomberg
So sentiment is seeing slowing inflation, but the market is seeing re-acceleration…
Source: Bloomberg
The headline sentiment indicator for the preliminary September data declined from 69.5 to 67.7, with current conditions tumbling while future expectations inched higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Survey Director Joanne Hsu notes that “so far, few consumers mentioned the potential federal government shutdown, but if the shutdown comes to bear, consumer views on the economy will likely slide, as was the case just a few months ago when the debt ceiling neared a breach.”
Buying conditions worsened across all cohorts…
So the consumer thinks that inflation is under control, and hope is high… but they are less willing to spend?
end
“Getting Cold Feet”: Rising Home Contract Cancellations Hits 10-Month High As Affordability Crisis Worsens
FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 – 11:20 AM
A new Redfin report Friday revealed the latest rumblings of a worsening housing affordability crisis. It showed the number of residential real estate deals that fell through in August surged to the highest level in a year. This is due to a combination of a 30-year fixed mortgage rate above 7% and rising home prices that has caused a ‘homebuyer stickier shock.’
In August, around 60,000 home-purchase contracts fell through nationwide, accounting for 15.7% of homes under contract that month. This is an increase from 14.3% the previous year and represents the largest percentage since October 2022, when the 30-year fixed mortgage rate first rose above 7% for the first time since the Dot Com bust.
“I’ve seen more homebuyers cancel deals in the last six months than I’ve seen at any point during my 24 years of working in real estate. They’re getting cold feet,” said Jaime Moore, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Reno, Nevada.
Moore said, “Buyers get sticker shock when they see their high rate on paper alongside extra expenses for maintenance, repairs and closing costs. Many of them would rather back out, even if it means losing their earnest money. A lot of sellers are also willing to let buyers slip away because they don’t want to concede to repair requests.”
The average interest rate on a 30-year-fixed mortgage is 7.27% this week.
Soaring borrowing costs increased the average monthly payment by over 20% from a year ago. The result has sent home-purchase applications plunging to the lowest level since 1995.
The reason for the collapse is simple: With housing affordability at or near the lowest on record, the average monthly mortgage payment has exploded to $2,322, more than double from pre-Covid levels.
The median home price in August rose 3% from the previous year, reaching $420,846.
Meanwhile, Redfin Economics Research Head Chen Zhao doesn’t expect the affordability crisis to wane anytime soon:
“Home prices will likely remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
“The Federal Reserve still has more work to do in its battle against inflation, which means mortgage rates are unlikely to come down anytime soon. As long as rates remain high, homeowners will be reluctant to sell. And that lack of homes for sale will keep prices high because it means buyers are duking it out for a limited supply of houses.”
Zhao warned that the high rates have “handcuffed” homeowners to their homes. He said, “That means many of today’s sellers are putting their homes on the market because they have to, in some cases due to divorce, family emergencies or return-to-office policies.”
The increase in terminated home-purchase agreements signals the affordability crisis weighs heavily on demand. This will serve as a cooling effect on shelter costs, which is what the Fed wants.
END
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
UAW
The strike begins: (two commentaries). The supply chains will get destroyed!
(zerohedge)
As Historic Auto Union Strike Starts, White House Prepares Emergency Aid
THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 11:20 PM
Update (2320ET): For the first time in history that the 146,000-member union has simultaneously gone on strike against Ford, General Motors(GM) and Stellantis, according to Reuters.
“Tonight, for the first time in our history, we will strike all three of the Big Three at once,” UAW President Shawn Fain says.
The @UAW has made it loud and clear to The Big 3: Sept. 14, at midnight, is a DEADLINE.
GM’s midsize truck and full-size van plant in Wentzville, Missouri;
Ford’s Ranger midsize pickup and Bronco SUV plant in Wayne, Michigan; and
Stellantis’ Jeep plant in Toledo, Ohio
…while not yet committing to a complete strike for all its members.
Pro-union President Biden is walking a very thin line.
Even though the president and other officials in his administration have repeatedly said they’re not concerned about impending labor action, the Washington Post reports Biden officials “are preparing economic measures to protect suppliers to the auto industry from long-term damage.”
People familiar with internal conversations said the White House is very concerned about the strike that could “wipe out the thousands of suppliers” critical for Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis’ complex supply chains. The chaos at the supplier level “could impede the broader US auto supply chain even after the possible strike ends,” the people said.
The type of support being offered is unclear, but one possibility could be in the form of grants via the Labor Department to assist workers at firms affected by strikes. Another option could be loans to these firms supplied by the Small Business Administration.
“The administration wants to be sure to do what it can to protect the Detroit supply chains,” one of WaPo’s sources said, adding, “They have to worry about how some of the less well-capitalized firms could be at risk.”
If these sources are correct, it would contradict the president who stated ten days ago while at his luxurious beach house in Rehoboth beach: “I’m not worried about a strike. I don’t think it’s going to happen.” On Monday, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo reaffirmed Biden’s position that ‘strikes will be averted’.
On Wednesday, UAW boss Shawn Fain told members in a Facebook Live event that talks with General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis were still ‘far apart‘ and, “We are preparing to strike these companies in a way they’ve never seen before.”
This week, UAW dropped their wage hike demand from 40% to 36%, but even then, that’s still far off from auto companies offers:
Ford is proposing a 20 percent raise over 4½ years, up from its initial offer of 9 percent. General Motors is offering an 18 percent raise over 4½ years, up from 10 percent earlier. And Stellantis, the parent company of Jeep and Chrysler, is offering 17.5 percent raises over that same time period, up from 14.5 percent. -WaPo
Fain said a strike would begin in a “select few” manufacturing plants to keep automakers guessing where the next labor action will emerge:
“This is going to create confusion for the companies. It’s going to keep them guessing on what might happen next, and it’s going to turbocharge the power of our negotiators.”
The union boss has a 2200 ET Facebook Live Event scheduled for tonight.
Unprecedented UAW Strike: 13,000 Workers Walk Off Job At ‘Big Three’ US Auto Plants
FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 – 07:20 AM
Update (0800ET):
General Motors CEO Mary Barra told CNBC in an interview:
“I’m frustrated and disappointed. We don’t need to be on strike right now.
“We have a very generous offer on the table right now. It’s historic. From a wage increase perspective, it’s the most significant offer we’ve had in our 115-year history.”
Barra warned:
Strikes will “not be good for the economy overall.”
She added:
Strikes can be resolved “very quickly” after a “historic” offer from the automaker.
Still, GM’s offer and Ford’s and Stellantis’ offers are still well below the demand threshold for the union.
… and then there’s this.
Nice job pro-union Biden.
* * *
For the first time in United Auto Workers’ 88-year history, the union has mobilized a strike against Detroit’s “Big Three” automakers – General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis, the producer of Chrysler. Negotiations for a new four-year labor contract between UAW and the three automakers broke down before midnight, triggering a strike at several manufacturing plants.
As many as 13,000 UAW workers abandoned their workstations. They walked out of factories belonging to the Big Three, including the Ford Motor Co. plant in Michigan that makes Bronco SUVs, a General Motors Co. factory in Missouri that assembles Chevrolet Colorado pickups, and a Stellantis NV plant in Ohio that builds Jeep Wrangler SUVs, at 2359 ET (as the current labor contract expired).
END
NEW YORK
Manhattan Rental Market ‘Peaks’ As Affordability Wanes
THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 10:00 PM
Demand for apartments across Manhattan slowed in August, a month typically marked by a surge ahead of the back-to-school season. This indicates that record-high rents have likely pushed potential renters to the sidelines. More broadly, this supports the latest inflation trends that show easing shelter costs.
Last month, the median rent in Manhattan was signed around $4,400, or unchanged from the record set in July, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. The plateau in rent prices indicates consumers are balking at prices that have jumped 7.3% from a year ago and 35% from August 2021. Source: Bloomberg
According to Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, August is usually one of the hottest months of the year as renters flock to the borough before the fall semester. However, last month, activity was underwhelming and slower than in May and June. He said new leases plunged 14% from a year ago to 5,025.
“We’re still at or very near all-time highs, but we’re continuing to see new leasing activity fall, and that’s an indicator that the market is topping out,” Miller said.
If Miller is correct, then the topping of rent prices in Manhattan would line up with broader shelter trends that have also eased.
Recall that we told readers in April: “Shelter has topped out.”
Miller said the number of available apartments declined from July, suggesting some renters renewed leases rather than going out and finding an entirely new place. Data showed competition and bidding wars on apartments have slowed. He added that only “11% of leases were signed after bidding wars, compared with 19% a year earlier.”
He also expects landlords to lower rent prices this fall as demand subsides. Still, he doesn’t expect significant declines: “No one is expecting a rent correction unless we have some severe economic event.”
High rent prices in the borough have deterred many young TikTok influencers who aspired to nothing else in life but to make short videos about their lives.
The solution for some has been finding roommates.
Miller was correct last month when he warned that the rental affordability breaking point is quickly approaching.
END
BALTIMORE
Baltimore City Official Blames Cars, Not Crime, For Population Collapse
THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 08:00 PM
Baltimore City’s population has plunged to a century low. Instead of acknowledging that failed progressive policies have transformed the metro area into a crime-ridden hellhole and, in return, the continuation of a multi-decade exodus of residents, a Democratic city lawmaker blames the “automobile” as the primary culprit behind population decline.
“Our population loss is directly aligned with the trajectory of car-dominance and the City’s investment to cater and shift to car-dominance,” Democratic City Councilman Ryan Dorsey wrote on X. He said, “You cannot properly understand or effectively address population loss without directly confronting car-dominance.”
Our population loss is directly aligned with the trajectory of car-dominance and the City’s investment to cater and shift to car-dominance.
You cannot properly understand or effectively address population loss without directly confronting car-dominance. https://t.co/8kXSs5oEMh— Ryan Dorsey (@ElectRyanDorsey) September 9, 2023
Democrats have held control of Baltimore City for five decades.
During that time, the city’s population has collapsed.
“With all due respect councilman, populations has less to do with cars that it does with access to well paying jobs, the availability of affordable modern single family homes, blight, and crime. One could use Atlanta in comparison. As we’ve lost, they’ve increased,” one X user told Dorsey.
Nothing that comes out of Baltimore’ leadership’ surprises me. But, I must say, this may be the most absurd thing I’ve heard yet. Here is a little truth as it relates to Baltimore.
Fact: The problem in Baltimore is violent crime. People are scared to live there or go there. Not to mention it has the highest property taxes in the state.
Fact: The leadership in the Mayor’s office and on Council is awful. All should immediately resign based on the results in Baltimore from violent crime to failing schools.
Sometimes facts are hard and words seem unkind but I believe it is time to start laying out the facts and demanding accountability. The state of Maryland spends millions trying to prop Baltimore up and the leadership fails every time.
Besides residents fleeing, financial firms whom we speak with have cited crime as their reasons why they’re actively searching for new offices outside of the city — not the automobile
end
MICHAEL SNYDER…
The Middle Class Is Increasingly Becoming “The Impoverished Class”, And The Poor Are Increasingly Being Pushed Into The Streets
America’s middle class is being systematically eviscerated. When the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system during the pandemic, most Americans didn’t realize what that would do to them.
That money certainly made the wealthy a whole lot wealthier, but it also dramatically increased the cost of living for the rest of us. So now inflation has been rising much faster than paychecks have, and the cost of living has become exceedingly oppressive. In fact, last year we witnessed the largest decline in real median household income in more than a decade…
The official tally is in and it is brutal: Americans suffered the biggest drop in household income in 2022 in a dozen years.
Real median household income was $74,580 in 2022, a drop of 2.3 percent from the prior year, the Census Bureau said Tuesday.
This is the biggest drop in household income since 2010, when it household income fell 2.6 percent. That means it is worse than the pandemic decline of 2.2 percent. It is the fourth worst year in records going back to 1985.
In 2010, the U.S. economy was just coming out of the horrible recession that we had just experienced in 2008 and 2009.
Those were not fun times.
And the times that we are moving into will not be fun either.
We are being told that “high inflation” is the primary reason why real median household income is falling…
The declines were driven by high inflation. The measure of inflation that is used to calculate real income rose 7.8 percent, the worst inflation since 1981.
1981 was a long time ago.
But at that time, the U.S. economy quickly recovered under the leadership of President Ronald Reagan.
We will not be so fortunate this time around.
Our leaders flooded the system with giant mountains of money, and almost everyone cheered as they were doing it.
But now we are paying the price.
Recently, a “Gen X mom” named Jessica McCabe made headlines all over the world when she posted a video on TikTok in which she expressed how frustrating it is to watch her adult children deeply struggle in this economy…
“I am so tired of feeling helpless as a parent,” McCabe started off the video. She acknowledged that her son was 25 and her daughter was 28 and explained: “I thought by teaching them what I learned, which is you work hard, you get a good job, you’re gonna get the things in life that you need, right? Worked for me, why wouldn’t it work for them?”
Unfortunately for all of us, the rules have changed.
What worked in the 1980s and 1990s simply does not work today.
In her video, she acknowledged that struggle is a part of life, but she also said that it is just so disheartening to see her kids “get further and further down” no matter how hard they try…
She continued: “I see them struggling, and before my generation comes at me, yes, I understand struggling as a part of life. We all struggle, but there’s a difference between struggling and drowning. So we struggled, and it was tough. But you know what, we made it. We knew there was a light at the end of the tunnel with our struggle. It seems like kids today, no matter how much they struggle, they just get further and further down.”
Sadly, this is the reality of life for most Americans today.
More than 60 percent of the nation is currently living paycheck to paycheck, and former Ford CEO Mark Fields just admitted to CNBC that someone needs to make more than $100,000 a year just to be able to afford a new vehicle these days…
The former Ford CEO said that a consumer has to “make over $100,000 to afford a new car.” As a result, the price of vehicles is starting to come down, which is leading to an inventory correction.
“Vehicles are getting older, they need to be replaced.”
Americans are keeping their vehicles longer than ever, and that is because most of us simply cannot afford to replace them.
As I have discussed previously, Americans are increasingly turning to debt to help make ends meet from month to month.
Credit card debt surged dramatically during the second quarter, and this is starting to become an enormous problem…
American households now have an average of $10,170 credit card debt, as record numbers say they are worried about being cut off from access to loans.
Data from the New York Federal Reserve shows nationwide credit card debt swelled by $43 billion in the second quarter of the year – the second largest increase on record.
Meanwhile a separate survey by the Fed revealed 60 percent of respondents found it more difficult to access credit – the highest level since the data series began in June 2013.
I warned my readers that the flow of credit would start to get tighter and tighter.
And now it is happening.
Right now, so many formerly middle class Americans have been pushed into what I call “the impoverished class”, and many that were formerly poor now find themselves pushed out into the streets.
In fact, according to the Wall Street Journal we have witnessed the largest increase in homelessness ever recorded this year…
The United States has seen the biggest ever spike in homeless people living on the streets – as preliminary figures showed a record 11 percent increase in one year.
There are nearly 600,000 rough sleepers across cities and towns in America, and the jump from 2022 to 2023 so far is the highest since the government started tracking the data in 2007, according to the WSJ.
Places like Oakland and San Francisco in California have become hotbeds for homelessness, as people living on the streets are like ‘drug tourists’ who arrive to have easy access to narcotics.
So please don’t believe anyone that tries to convince you that the economy is doing just fine.
It most certainly is not.
Homeless encampments are popping up like mushrooms all over the nation, and many communities are not pleased about this at all.
For example, just check out what has been happening in Austin, Texas…
Shocking footage has exposed the scene in an Austin park filled with liquor bottles, needles, Narcan and junk ‘as far as the eye can see,’ as a homeless encampment continues to grow.
The videos were of the West Bouldin Creek Greenbelt were posted on Monday by activist Jamie Hammonds, who reports from the Texas capital on the X page @DocumentingATX.
‘Another Greenbelt destroyed here in Austin… nothing but trash and junk as far as you can see… this is absolutely horrible,’ Hammonds said, adding that the encampment was at least the size of a football field, and you could smell it ‘even before you enter the greenbelt.’
And as things get worse, the middle class will continue to shrink.
It is almost as if we are all playing a really bizarre game of musical chairs.
With each passing day, even more spots in the middle class are being removed from the game, and the ranks of “the impoverished class” continue to grow larger and larger.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON…
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
THE KING REPORT
The King Report September 15, 2023 Issue 7076
Independent View of the News
The PBoC cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25 basis points, effective from Sept 15.
The ECB unexpectedly hiked its benchmark rate 25bps to 4.00%, its 10th consecutive rate hike. The ECB says inflation is “expected to remain too high for too long.” The ECB cut its growth forecasts in every year through 2025. ECB President Lagarde: “The focus is probably going to move a bit more to duration, but it is not to say – because we can’t say – that now that that we are at peak.”
ECB Communique: Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long… The September ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area see average inflation at 5.6% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. This is an upward revision for 2023 and 2024 and a downward revision for 2025… They (ECB staff) now expect the euro area economy to expand by 0.7% in 2023, 1.0% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025… https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230914~aab39f8c21.en.html
Despite Lagarde’s assertion, the usual suspects quickly proclaimed that the ECB is finished hiking rates.
US August PPI stunningly surged 0.7% m/m & 1.6% y/y; 0.4% m/m & 1.3% y/y were consensus. Core PPI was the expected 0.2% m/m & 2.2% y/y. Once again Team Biden made detrimental revisions: July PPI to 0.4% m/m from 0.3% and Core PPI to 0.3% m/m from 0.2%.
Wholesale inflation posts biggest increase in 14 months, PPI shows The cost of wholesale energy surged almost 11% in August to drive the increase in the PPI. Food prices fell 0.5% … The cost of services… rose a scant 0.2% last month… https://t.co/4B1vXlDgti
US August Retail Sales, due to soaring gasoline prices, surged to 0.6% m/m; 0.1% was expected. Ex-Auto Sales rose 0.6%, 04% was expected; Ex-Auto & Gas Sales are +0.2%, -0.1% was consensus.
US Initial Jobless Claims are 220k; 225k was expected. Continuing Claims are 1.688m, 1.69m expected.
Despite the largest gain in US PPI in 14 months and CPI jumping from 3% y/y to 3.7% in two months, the usual suspects aver that the Fed must pause; others claim the Fed is finished hiking rates. For over two years, financial asset bulls have heralded the end of Fed rate hikes. When will they be right?
Gasoline, WTI Oil (90.79 high), and base metals rallied sharply on Fed & CB pause hype & hope.
ESZs and stocks rallied on the braying that the Fed and ECB are now on indefinite ‘hold’ regarding rate hikes. USZs, however, declined because they believe the Fed and the US government are too loose.
ESZs traded modestly higher when the Nikkei opened. An hour later, they commenced a rally that peaked (4534.25) at 1:31 ET. ESZs then declined to 4522.00 at 4:23 ET. The ensuing rally took ESZs to 4539.50 at 8:17 ET. ESZs sank to 4527.50 at 8:35 ET on the ugly US PPI and strong retail sales.
But, it was time to load up for the ingrained Pump & Dump for the NYSE opening. ESZs soared to a daily high of 4547.75 at 9:20 ET. But some dumpers jumped the gun; selling commenced early. ESZs declined to 4528.00 at 10:20 ET. Traders played for the 2nd Hour Reversal.
ESZs then soared to a new daily high of 4551.00 at 11:10 ET. ESZs fell to 4541.50 at 11:42 ET. Ebullient traders began another rally; they were determined to generate momentum/lemming buying via pushing the S&P 500 Index above 4500. As ESZs rallied, USZs sank.
The S&P 500 Index hit 4500.88. The rally ended. After a 35-minutes retreat, traders pushed ESZs higher and the S&P 500 Index to 4508.23 near 13:00 ET. No lemming buying appeared; so, ESZs and stocks retreated until 13:25 ET. Another rally thrust pushed the S&P 500 Index to 4507.78 at 13:35 ET. Still no lemming buying developed; so, the S&P 500 Index sank to 4500.86 near 14:30 ET.
The late manipulation took the S&P 500 Index to a daily high of 4511.99 at 15:07 ET. Once again, there was no momentum/lemming buying. So, ESZs and stocks retreated until 15:33 ET. They then traded a tad higher into the close. The S&P 500 Index closed at 4505.17.
USZs rallied moderately during latter Nikkei trading, but commenced a decline after the 2 ET Chinese close. USZs fell to 119 9/32 at 8:14 ET; they jumped to 119 28/32 at 8:28. After the US economic data release, USZs sank to 119 5/32. Foolhardy bond traders then poured into USZs on the Fed and ECB indefinite pause braying. But Mr. Bond punished those dopes that listened to the shills. USZs tumbled to a daily low of 118 31/32 at 10:20 ET.
GM Bumps Pay Raise Offer to 20% (18% previous) in Latest Proposal to UAW – BBG Latest UAW demand is 36%…
@Jkylebass: It’s painfully obvious to everyone that the @UAW’s demands are right down the center of the fairway. The @federalreserve’s money printing and the governments reckless spending (running a 6% of GDP deficit at full employment?!) created real inflation of 40% (apartment rents are up +40% over the last three years)…so the UAW is demanding 40% pay hikes to simply BREAK EVEN on costs. The FED and the BLS and the unelected Fed governors devoid of oversight are to blame. All low-wage workers deserve a wage hike and it has NOTHING to do with the Phillips Curve or future expectations (as I’ve heard from several former Fed officials). It’s that THE METHOD OF MEASUREMENT IS BROKEN. We can’t spend chain-weighted dollars and we can’t rent at OER rates. Causing 40%+ inflation while reporting less than 20% inflation is the FED’s and the BLS’ problem. THIS MUST BE FIXED. It’s very simple.
Disney Said to Hold Initial Talks on Sale of ABC to Nexstar – BBG 14:11 ET Disney Is Said to Cut Target for Disney+ Streaming Subscribers – BBG 15:58 ET
Today –An estimated $4 trillion of September derivatives expire. Ergo, the incentives for manipulation were and remain extremely high. Yesterday’s rally was the expiry squeeze (Fin media ignored it). Today is a total crapshoot because it cannot be predicted if manipulators or liquidators will gain the upper hand. Liquidation pressure could be exacerbated due to Rosh Hashanah on Monday.
The S&P 500 Index hit 4511.99 and closed at 4504.78. But, it is marginally above its trading band from the previous six sessions. A four-day trading band above 4500 occurred from Sept. 30 to October 5. Bulls need to push the S&P 500 Index appreciably above 4500. If no enthusiastic buying appears above Thursday’s S&P 500 high (4511.99), expiry-related liquidation could be spirited in the afternoon. S&P 500 Index, hourly basis
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4482; 100-day MA: 4360; 150-day MA: 4252; 200-day MA: 4180 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,818; 100-day MA: 35,232; 150-day MA: 33,852; 200-day MA: 33,802 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3814.46 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4586.76 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4431.22 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4479.92 triggers a sell signal
Special Counsel Weiss indicted Hunter Biden on three felony gun charges: Two charges for lying when buying the gun, and one charge for illegally possessing the gun.
GOP @RepJamesComer: Today’s charges against Hunter Biden are a very small start, but unless U.S. Attorney Weiss investigates everyone involved in the fraud schemes and influence peddling, it will be clear President Biden’s DOJ is protecting Hunter Biden and the big guy.
@seanmdav: If Hunter had a different last name, he’d have been thrown in prison over this years ago. But the bigger issue than his gun crimes is the alleged tax evasion, money laundering, and foreign influence peddling that the corrupt DOJ are ignoring to protect Joe Biden.
Hunter Biden-linked Russian billionaires spared yet again by US sanctions https://t.co/3pvSfGgg7z
@RNCResearch: Biden sits and blankly stares at the press as he refuses to answer questions about impeachment and his involvement in his son’s corruption. (Aides shoo away the media) https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1702044215528607842
Biden boasts teaching ‘political theory’ at UPenn — but he never taught a single class at the Ivy League schoolhttps://trib.al/SxrJilq
@YahooNews: Democrats now admit that Hunter Biden acted unethically in using his family name to make millions, but insist that his father was not involved, did not profit, and that Joe Biden did not change U.S. policy to help his son during his time as vice president… Biden referred to comments by Sen. Mitt Romney a week prior, in which the Utah Republican dismissed a Senate Republican investigation into Hunter Biden as “a political exercise” that was “not the legitimate role of government or Congress.”… https://news.yahoo.com/biden-impeachment-how-to-understand-hunter-bidens-role-212841937.html
House Speaker McCarthy: Media Marching Orders Corporate media has a political bias… Still, it’s a true act of desperation for the Biden White House to give the media marching orders… The takeaway was clear: do Biden’s bidding, or else… https://www.speaker.gov/media-marching-orders/
@ChristopherJM: Biden taps Penny Pritzker as the new US Special Representative for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery. Big task ahead. (No one is more responsible for Obama’s ascent than Penny.) https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1702335545257648637
Trump Reveals Why He Never Ended Birthright Citizenship Trump promised in 2016 to end birthright citizenship, but told Kelly he never followed through… “Because the lawyers didn’t want me to do it, because the lawyers were saying you have to go through a whole big thing all over the country, you need votes of every state and everything else…” Trump said… https://dailycaller.com/2023/09/14/trump-reveals-why-he-never-ended-birthright-citizenship/
@emeriticus: Absolutely brutal exchange. Trump claims he doesn’t know who gave Anthony Fauci a presidential commendation while he was president when pressed by Megyn Kelly. MK: “The truth is though, not only did you not fire Fauci, who is loathed by many, many, millions of Republicans in particular, but also some Democrats. Trump: “By the way–” MK: “You made him a star. You made him a star. This is the criticism of you. That you made him the face of the White House coronavirus task force–” Trump: “You think so?” MK: “–that he was out at every presser . . . and that you actually gave him a presidential commendation before you left office. Wouldn’t you like a do-over on that?” Trump: “Uhhhhh, I don’t know who gave him the commendation. I really don’t know who gave him the commendation.” MK: “Well a presidential commendation—” Trump tries to talk over her here, so it is a little hard to hear, but it sounds like she says he may as well have given a commendation to Mark Milley if Fauci got one. Also, it’s easy to miss, but MK notes at the very beginning that Trump changed his answer for why he didn’t fire Fauci. First, he said it was because Fauci had been around for a long time and that it would have been too controversial a move. She quotes him saying it would have created a firestorm. Only later did Trump say he *couldn’t* fire Fauci because he’s a civil servant. But as MK notes, the problem wasn’t just that he didn’t fire him–he made Fauci a star. https://twitter.com/emeriticus/status/1702157258065416366
@DeSantisWarRoom: DESANTIS GOES OFF on Trump’s false attacks over COVID and his many excuses for not firing Anthony Fauci: Trump “used to praise Florida for having been open. He used to say I was one of the country’s great governors. He said we handled COVID correctly and brilliantly. He was on record, always saying that. Now, because I’m a threat to him, he’s now changing his tune… “And here’s the thing: I fought against Fauci when he was popular. It’s easy for Republicans to ding him now because he’s unpopular with the broader electorate. Back then, Donald Trump used to cite Fauci’s poll numbers as a reason why Fauci was somebody that should be listened to. He said, ‘Fauci has got these great poll numbers, but we’re listening to Fauci, why don’t we have the same poll numbers?’ And his campaign for reelection, in October of 2020, they were running videos where Fauci is bragging that ‘Donald Trump did everything I told him to do.’ They were putting that out as a positive message for their candidate! “And then, of course, he did give Fauci a presidential commendation his last day in office. @megynkelly asked him about it, and he said, like, ‘what was that?’ Was that the immaculate commendation that just happened to happen? It said, ‘Donald Trump awards Fauci this commendation.’ So I thought it was really pathetic to sit there and listen to that drivel. It is totally false.” https://twitter.com/DeSantisWarRoom/status/1702410465723273724
The FBI Illegally Politicized Background Investigations for Republican Presidential Nominees It alleges that during the Trump administration, the FBI illegally conducted politically biased background checks to sabotage potential appointees with selectively “unsubstantiated” and “derogatory” information… As AFL details, because of “procedural infirmities that biased the FBI [background investigation] process in ways that benefited those politically opposed to former President Trump,” several federal laws were broken. Litigation conducted by AFL, leading to this report, shows that the FBI failed to guarantee Kavanaugh various legal protections… https://thefederalist.com/2023/09/14/report-the-fbi-illegally-politicized-background-investigations-for-republican-presidential-nominees/
Pelosi keeps claiming/lying that she did not call for a full House vote to open an impeachment of Trump. Because the MSM acts as Democratic Party operatives, Dems believe that they can repeatedly issue egregious lies without consequence.
@RNCResearch: NANCY PELOSI (October 15, 2019): “There’s no requirement that we have a vote [to open an impeachment inquiry] and so at this time we will not be having a vote.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1702316820458279017
Convicted paedophile snatches girl outside school after police ordered parents to take down posters warning he was in the area (Neustadt, Rhineland-Palatinate State, Germany) https://trib.al/DefEQhi
The death and disabilities from the failed CV19 bioweapon vax must be getting obvious to the general public because Dr. Anthony Fauci just admitted the CV19 so-called vaccine can cause severe heart problems. We all have known this for more than a year, but Dr. Fauci never mentioned it. This is a sure sign that it is becoming obvious to all that the CV19 shots were a total deadly and debilitating scam on America and the world. The total public awakening is going to be beautiful and ugly at the same time.
It seems every week there is a new announcement of more weapons and more funding in support of the disaster that is the Ukraine war with Russia. NATO has failed, and yet, more and more deadly weapons are being sent to Ukraine and used against Russia. This past week, NATO missiles were used by Ukraine to attack the Russian Black Sea Fleet. What will the response be? Russia is also warning the UK not to train Ukraine commandos to blow up Russian nuke power plants. Putin is promising “serious consequences.” All the while, the brain-dead propaganda spewing Lying Legacy Media tells us Ukraine is winning, which is the exact opposite of reality. There is absolutely zero talk of peace, and all the signs point to an escalating war that will end with a nuclear exchange. Our leaders are reckless compromised idiots, and the world will pay dearly for it if it is not derailed soon.
Inflation is on the rise again as the August inflation rate spiked .6%. That’s the biggest increase this year, and more inflation is on the way with oil, gasoline, diesel fuel and food all headed higher. No way the Fed will be in the interest rate cutting mood with this news. On top of that, the ECB just raised interest rates to a record 4%. Watch the Fed follow suit at the next meeting or before. Bye, bye housing and commercial real estate, and hello Greatest Depression.
There is much more in the 47-minute newscast.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 9.15.23.
Analyst Bo Polny of Gold2020Forecast.com will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. His analysis says we are headed for a big financial fall that will change the corrupt system we live under forever. Polny will fill us in on what to expect
TO ALL OUR JEWISH FRIENDS OUT THERE: A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR
AM2027.33
(@AFLCIO) September 15, 2023
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