EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,699.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/07/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 05/11/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 38
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 7
132 C SG AMERICAS 21
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 198
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 95
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 75
905 C ADM 4
TOTAL: 219 219
MONTH TO DATE: 3,682
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2026: 219 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 21,900 OZ or 0.6812 TONNES
total notices so far: 3682 contracts FOR 368,200 OZ OR 11.482 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 9 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.045 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5007 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 25.035 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACTS OR 0.005 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY OUR HUGE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 144 CONTRACTS FOR 720,000 OZ/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 29.820 MILLION OZ/.//
SUMMARY OF OUR MAY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 11.830 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 144 CONTRACTS/720,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 29.820 MILLION OZ//
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 27800 OZ/ (0.8646 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 195 CONTRACTS OR 19,500 OZ (.6064 TONNES)/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 14.037 TONNES OF GOLD.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 195 CONTRACTS/19500 OZ// 0.6064 TONNES//NEW STANDING IS NOW ADVANCES TO 14.037 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 26.037 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONG
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A FAIR 287 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 99,323 ADVANCING A BIT FROM ITS ALL TIME LOW SET MAY 1.
EFP ISSUANCE 625 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 625 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 287 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 625 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 912 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $2.26
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 4.560 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $2.26
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MAY 8 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.14 PTS OR 0.00%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 213.78 PTS OR 0.80%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 99.34 PTS OR 0.16%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.15%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.8017
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8010 Oil UP TO 94.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 100.12 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP (6.8017) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8010 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 2262 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 378,965 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET LATE LAST MONTH AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THURSDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE BUT ALSO SOME SPECULATORS STILL GOING TO THE SHORT SIDE WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPECULATORS WHO CONTINUALLY GO TO THE SHORT SIDE AND AND OF COURSE THEY WILL BE ANNHILATED ON CENTRAL BANK COMMAND!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS APRIL CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $15.50).
WE THUS HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 3,157 CONTRACTS (OR 32.410 TONNES) WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A SMALL CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.EQUATING TO 895 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF ZERO CONTRACTS FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD TOTALLING 0 CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK YESTERDAY MAY 7. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: ONE ISSUANCE SO FAR FOR 109 CONTRACTS OR 10,900 OZ OR 0.3390 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: ONE ISSUANCE SO FAR FOR 109 CONTRACTS, 10900 OZ OR 0.3390 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MAY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3,157 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE ($15.50). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MAY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A HUGE SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 12,306 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT IS NOW IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK DURING LONDON COMEX AND LBMA/OTC OPTION EXPIRY WEEK!! (INITIAL MAY CONTRACT MONTH)
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS FIRST ISSUANCE FOR 0.3390 TONNES ISSUED YESTERDAY MAY 6.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 19,500 OZ (.6065 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 10,900 OZ OR 0.3390 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 14.047 TONNESS
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MAY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $15.50)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI //
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THURSDAY NIGHT//FRIDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $15.50
WE HAD 7263 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 3157 CONTRACTS OR 1,042,000 OZ OR 9.819 TONNES
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 8 2026
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | ENTRIES; 0 |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 219 CONTRACTS OR 21900 OZ 0.6812 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 712 Contracts 71,200 OZ 2.214 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 3682 notices 368,200 oz 11.482 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 0
xxxx
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI STANDS AT 931 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 58 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 137 CONTRACT SERVED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED ANOTHER STRONG 195 CONTRACTS OR 19,500 OZ (0.6064 TONNES) UNDEREWENT A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI LOST BY 9930 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 243,426
JULY GAINED 50 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 1140.
We had 219 contracts filed for today representing 21,900oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 219 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 75 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3,682) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (931 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 219 x 100 oz per contract) equals 440,400 OZ OR (13.698 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our first exchange for risk issuance for 10,900 oz or 0.3390 tonnes//new standing for gold/May again advances to 14.037 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3,682) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(931 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 219 x 100 oz per contract) equals 440,400 OZ OR (13.698 Tonnes of gold) plus we must add our first exchange for risk issuance of 10,900 oz or 0.3390 tonnes/new standing advances to 14.047 tonness
new total of gold standing in MAY ADVANCES TO 14.037 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY 14.037 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
confirmed volume THURSDAY confirmed 207,814 FAIR many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
the number provided do not match from yesterday!!!
total pledged gold: 1,964,079.919 oz 61.091 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,964,079.919 tonnes oz 61.091 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 29,127,882.874oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,827,899.555 OZ 492.314 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 13,3040.982.720 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,863,800 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
431.22 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 8
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3 entries i) Out of Brinks 381,652.290 oz ii) Out of CNT 633,488.480 oz iii) Out of Delaware: 24,018.200 oz total withdrawal: 1,042,159.470 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 1 ENTRIES i) Into Loomis: 600,521.458 oz total deposit 600,521.458 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 9 CONTRACT(S) (0.045 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 957 Contracts (4.785 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5007 contracts 25.035 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Loomis: 600,521.458 oz
total deposit 600,521.458 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
3 entries
i) Out of Brinks 381,652.290 oz
ii) Out of CNT 633,488.480 oz
iii) Out of Delaware 24,418.200 oz
total withdrawal: 1,042,159.470 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments:1
a) Manfra: dealer to customer; 296,986.874 oz
WEDNESDAY volume: 59,420 oz// AWFUL
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 79.838 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 312.752 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2026 OI: 966 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 213 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 69 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON ON THURSDAY SO WE AGAIN LOST 22 CONTRACTS OR 110,000 OZ AS THESE BOYS ENTERTAINED A MASSIVE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER WHERE THEY WILL TRY THEIR LUCK TAKING DELIVERY OVER ON THE LONDON SIDE OF THE POND.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 45 CONTRACTS UP TO 2503 OI CONTRACTS
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 209 CONTRACTS UP TO 74,582 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 9 or 45,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume THURSDAY; 74,529 good
AND NOW MAY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5007 X5,000 oz = 25.035 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (966) AND the number of notices served upon today (9 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2026 contract month: (5007 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (966) minus number of notices served upon today (9)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY..contract month equating to 29.820 MILLION OZ.+
NEW STANDING REDUCES T0: 29.820 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 79.838 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 140.287/312.310 million: 44.83
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAY 8 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.283 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.480TONNES
MAY 7 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.853 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.197TONNES
MAY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $124.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.718 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.05TONNES
MAY 5 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 4 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $106.65 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
APRIL 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.142 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.195 TONNES
APRIL 29/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $45.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 28/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $85.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 27/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.91 TONNES
APRIL 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP 26.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 11.90TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.783 TONNES
APRIL 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.289 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.478 TONNES
APRIL 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $83.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.714 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.192 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 1/2026/WITH GOLD UP $134.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.276 TONNES
MAR 31/2026/WITH GOLD UP $119.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.133 TONNES
MAR 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.143 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.562
MAR 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $213.05 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.580 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42
MAR 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $155.30 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.000
MAR 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.286 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $165.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.149 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.991
MAR 20/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $39,55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.855 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.135
MAR 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.99
MAR 18/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $111.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.564 TONNES
MAR 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 0.857 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.708 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1033.480 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
MAY 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.689 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.809 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.26: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $3.75: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.724 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.21: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.05: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP $2.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.905 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.338 MILLION OZ
APRIL 30 WITH SILVER UP $2.03: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.991 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.243MILLION OZ
APRIL 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.95: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.39: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 24 WITH SILVER UP 0.92: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,23MILLION OZ
APRIL 23WITH SILVER DOWN $2.35: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.489 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488,773MILLION OZ
APRIL 22 WITH SILVER UP 1.43: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262MILLION OZ
aPRIL 21 WITH SILVER DOWN 3.71: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17 WITH SILVER UP $3.09: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.900 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.132 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.477 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.01: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.588 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.579 MILLION OZ
APRIL 14 WITH SILVER UP $3.99: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.589 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.624 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND WITHDRAWAL OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.079 MILLION OZ
MAR 31 WITH SILVER UP $4.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.532 MILLION OZ
MAR 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.74: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.75: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.15: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 10.505 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.92: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.490 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $6.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9444 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.761 MILLION OZ
MAR 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.36: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.792 MILLION OZ.
MAR 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.705 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 484.809 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Is the silver bull back?
Notably in silver, bear squeeze conditions were evident this week. The likelihood of the bull market returning is now strengthened, particularly given gold’s improving prospects.
| Alasdair MacleodMay 8∙Paid |
The classic conditions for a bear squeeze are a combination of bearish trader consensus and an unexpected rise in the price, leading to shorts being squeezed into buying back their positions. That’s a reasonable description of market developments this week.
The chart below of silver’s price and open interest on Comex illustrates the basis for these conditions.
Open interest has declined to levels not seen in decades. However loud the noise from the very small and vociferous band of silver bulls, this tells us that speculative interest is as negative as it gets. When that is the case, anyone who is a seller has sold, and the only prospective dealers are buyers. Those buyers are short sellers locking in profits, or when the price starts rising simply because it has stopped falling, they fall victim to margin calls.
In silver’s case, the price rose suddenly and sharply this week taking it from Monday’s low of $72.21 to a high yesterday of $82.12, a rally of 13.7%. Trading volumes picked up, while open interest less so accentuating the squeeze:
We shall return to silver later. Gold is a far more liquid market, and its price has faced a tussle between portfolio managers eyeing cash for risk protection while central banks, sovereign wealth funds and predominantly Asian wealth seek the protection of gold from a declining dollar. Nevertheless, the tide appears to be turning against fiat cash in favour of gold.
Despite its greater liquidity than silver, the Comex gold contract illustrates similar conditions. Open interest is exceptionally low, with trading bulls having left the arena. But despite the collapse in open interest, the price has held up exceptionally well:
Short-term uncertainty is now entirely due to the fog of war. This morning, there are reports of Iranian attacks on US navy vessels transiting Hormuz. Markets face a weekend of heightened uncertainty and the prospect of an escalation leading to sharply higher oil prices. But the more we look at gold and silver, they resist going materially lower:
This morning, gold was $4720, up $113 from last Friday’s close, and silver at $80.45 is up $5.15 on balance. As noted above, there is a firmer underlying feel to these markets, and they appear ready to resume their intermediate upward trends.
In the case of gold, it is all about paper currency debasement, confirmed by the strength in other key commodities, notably copper which is hitting all-time highs. This is also true of silver, but there are additional bullish factors in this case to keep in mind.
Non-cyclical industrial demand for silver is still growing strongly, with photovoltaics leading the way followed by electric vehicle and military applications. Indian demand is particularly strong. Additionally, there is pent-up Indian demand because shipments have been stuck at customs for the last six weeks by administrative bottlenecks and lack of clarity over taxes.
Furthermore, China’s net imports of silver have jumped in recent months, putting further strain on global liquidity at a time of persistent global supply deficits. As the second largest global source of mined and processed silver, China appears to have adopted a policy of restricting her exports, becoming a net buyer. And it didn’t help when last year, the US belatedly decided to declare silver a critical mineral, signalling that she would be in the market to accumulate a strategic stockpile. China won’t want to gift silver to the Americans, which is a further reason for her to restrict exports.
The emerging crisis for the dollar’s value, signalled by gold and commodity prices generally will inevitably lead to additional investor demand, particularly from populous Asian nations seeing silver as an affordable alternative to gold. The combination of increasing industrial and rising investor demand points to far higher prices, with silver outperforming gold on the upside.
Today’s uncertainties in the fog of war will seem trivial compared with the consequences of the tectonic forces emerging from the Persian Gulf crisis, driving all price values in the coming months and particularly those for silver.
JESSE COLUMBO\
JOHN RUBINO
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
Japan to keep intervening to defend 160-per-dollar level, ex-BOJ official says
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2026-05-08 09:56 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Leika Kihara
Reuters
Thursday, May 7, 2026
TOKYO — Japan likely intervened during the Golden Week holidays and will step back into the market if the yen renews its slide below the psychologically key 160-per-dollar level, Atsushi Takeuchi, a former central bank official who took part in Tokyo’s market forays a decade ago, told Reuters.
While the Ministry of Finance has no intention of defending a certain line in the sand, it likely intervened to forestall a sharp yen selloff that could gain momentum once the currency breaks below the 160 level, he said. …
… For the remainder of the report:
Real metal keeps moving to Shanghai, silver severely underpriced, Maguire tells LFTV
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2026-05-07 21:08 Section: Daily Dispatches
9p ET Thursday, May 7, 2026
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
Answering viewer questions on this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, London metals trader Andrew Maguire says physical gold and silver trading continues to move away from New York and London to Shanghai, Shanghai prices show silver is severely underpriced in the West, and a spike in silver prices is imminent.
The program is 41 minutes long and can be viewed at the Kinesis Money channel at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
Hungary returns to Ukraine a seized cash and gold shipment worth $82 million
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2026-05-06 19:51 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Justin Spike
Associated Press
Wednesday, May 6, 2026
BUDAPEST, Hungary — A shipment of Ukrainian cash and gold worth around $82 million that Hungary seized earlier this year has been returned to Ukraine’s state Oschadbank, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said today.
The seizure of the valuables, which were being transported through Hungary by two armored cars when Hungarian counter-terrorism authorities detained them on March 5, caused outrage in Ukraine, where officials accused Hungary’s pro-Russian government of acting illegally, and of using the seizure as a tool in Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s anti-Ukraine election campaign.
The neighboring countries had already been in a feud over Hungary’s access to Russian oil through a pipeline that crosses Ukrainian territory.
But today Zelenskyy wrote on social media that the return of the valuables represented “an important step in relations with Hungary” after Orban was defeated in a landslide election last month that has raised hopes the incoming government will pursue a less antagonistic policy toward Kyiv. …
… For the remainder of the report:
*END
Standstill in India’s gold imports drags on, threatening supply
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2026-05-06 10:57 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Preeti Soni, Yihui Xie, and Vignesh Radhakrishnan
Bloomberg News
via The Times of India, Mumbai
Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Indian banks have been unable to import gold and silver for five weeks, an unusually long halt that’s pushing up domestic prices and threatening shortages in the world’s second-biggest bullion market.
Shipments have been stuck at customs since the start of the financial year on April 1, ensnared by administrative bottlenecks and a lack of clarity over taxes, traders with direct knowledge of the matter said.
Lenders in India are no stranger to occasional hiccups in importing precious metals, but the current delays are risking a shortage in the local market. Jewelers are seeking to restock following the Akshaya Tritiya festival, an auspicious time to buy gold and silver.
“The duration of the import halt is unusual,” said Sunil Kashyap, managing director at trader FinMet Pte Ltd. “The situation is getting tighter,” he added, as jewelers look to buy after the festival to take advantage of a drop in international prices. …
… For the remainder of the report:
4.ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 271 and 270
MUST VIEW…
LONDON PAUL//MUST VIEW
5. COMMODITY REPORT/WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS
EARNINGS: VERY VERY STRONG WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) Beats Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
Zacks Equity Research
Thu, May 7, 2026 at 7:05 p.m. EDT 3 min read
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.28 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.15 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.55 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +11.20%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.93 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.22, delivering a surprise of +31.18%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.
Wheaton Precious Metals, which belongs to the Zacks Mining – Miscellaneous industry, posted revenues of $901.47 million for the quarter ended March 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.44%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $470.41 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock’s immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management’s commentary on the earnings call.
Wheaton Precious Metals shares have added about 14.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500’s gain of 7.6%.
What’s Next for Wheaton Precious Metals?
While Wheaton Precious Metals has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors’ minds is: what’s next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company’s earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
END
GOLD/PBOC PURCHASES
China PBOC Buys Gold 18 Months Straight, Adds 8.1 Tonnes
by VBL
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 8:09
Authored by GoldFix
GFN – BEIJING: China’s central bank increased its gold reserves for an eighteenth consecutive month in April, extending one of the longest sovereign accumulation streaks in recent years as Beijing continues to diversify reserve assets amid growing geopolitical and monetary uncertainty.
Data released Thursday by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and corroborated by the People’s Bank of China showed official gold holdings rose to 74.64 million fine troy ounces at the end of April, up from 74.38 million ounces in March.
The increase of roughly 260,000 ounces marked China’s largest monthly gold purchase since late 2024, according to domestic market trackers.
“China added 260,000 ounces to its gold reserves last month.”
The reported value of China’s gold reserves climbed to approximately $344.17 billion at month-end, rebounding from March levels as bullion prices stabilized following recent volatility tied to Middle East tensions and shifting global rate expectations.
“The PBOC has now purchased gold for 18 straight months.”
The latest data reinforces a wider global trend of central bank gold accumulation, particularly among emerging market economies seeking insulation from sanctions risk, currency volatility, and growing fragmentation in the international monetary system.
Continues here
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.14 PTS OR 0.00%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 213.78 PTS OR 0.80%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 99.34 PTS OR 0.16%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.15%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.8017
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8010 Oil UP TO 94.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 100.12 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP (6.8017) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8010 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.8017
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.8010
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 213.78 PTS OR 0.80%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 99.34 PTS OR 0.16%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 94.73
BRENT; 100.13
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 97,90/// EURO RISES TO 1.1758 UP 28 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.472 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.71… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.714 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.8017 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.8010
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.0033// Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.747// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.422%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.678%
3j Gold at $4717.80 //Silver at: 80.12 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 25/ 100 roubles/74.39
3m oil (WTI) into the 94 dollar handle for WTI and 100 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.32 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.472% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.714 DOWN 2 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7783 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9152
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.369 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.958 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.893 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.37 UP 12 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.9080 DOWN 4 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.572 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.521 UP 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.177 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Rebound, Trade At All Time Highs On, What Else: Tech And Iran Optimism
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 08:23 AM
US equity futures are higher and just shy of a new record, with technology names leading futures higher ahead of April jobs report, after Trump’s assertion that the Iran ceasefire is still holding despite an exchange of weapons between the US and Iran overnight, and a deep weekly loss for oil help futures regain positive momentum. Markets are higher ahead of NFP data later this morning following yesterday’s very ‘unwindy’ session (High Beta Momo -7.96%, Software vs Semis +5.83%, Power -3.44%, HF VIP Longs -1.36%). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rise 0.5% and are back over 7,400 while Nasdaq futures gain 0.7%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by NVDA +0.9% and TSLA +0.9%.Sentiment reversed from Thursday’s drop after Trump last night said the recent US strikes on Iranian military facility does not affect the ceasefire status. This morning there are reports that Iran seized an oil tanker for violations (one which was carrying Iranian oil). The Ocean Koi tanker attempted to “disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation.” (Tasnim) Trump’s 10% global tariff under the Section 122 was found unlawful by the US Court of International Trade, but the outcome was mostly irrelevant. A busy night with AI headlines: (i) NVDA and IREN announce strategic partnership on AI infra; (ii) CoreWeave fell on weak revenue guidance and higher spending forecast; (iii) SK Hynix reported that they have received offers to invest in chip production lines. (iv) TSMC posted 17.5% growth in April sales, slowest in six months. Oil (WTI Crude) is unchanged at $94.80; bond yields are 1-3bp lower the 10Y yield at 4.38%; The dollar headed for a second straight week of losses. precious metals erased earlier gains with ags all higher. Today’s economic data slate includes April jobs report (8:30am), May preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and March wholesale trade sales (10am).
In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are higher (Tesla +1.4%, Alphabet +0.05%, Nvidia +0.9%, Microsoft +0.03%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Apple +0.8%)
- Akamai (AKAM) rises 25% after the company announced that a leading frontier AI model provider had committed to $1.8 billion over seven years for its Cloud Infrastructure Services. The company also reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook.
- Block (XYZ) gains 7% after the digital payments company forecast adjusted operating income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Expedia (EXPE) drops 7% after the online travel company forecast tepid gross bookings for the second quarter, with analysts pointing to macroeconomic pressures weighing on guidance.
- Fluence Energy (FLNC) rises 23% as Roth analyst Justin Clare raised the recommendation to buy on growing orders.
- Forward Air (FWRD) plunges 45% after the transportation services firm said it received no actionable proposals for a sale.
- JFrog (FROG) rises 14% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as conservative. Analysts highlighted an acceleration in cloud revenue growth as a highlight.
- Innodata (INOD) climbs 39% after the professional services company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year.
- Monster Beverage (MNST) rises 7% after the drinks company reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate. JPMorgan raised its price target.
- NLight shares (LASR) rise 13% after the maker of semiconductor laser products reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) climbs 7% as the space company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Trade Desk (TTD) falls 12% after the advertising-technology company reported adjusted first-quarter earnings that missed expectations.
- Wendy’s (WEN) rises 4% after the fast-food chain reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
In AI-related news, TSMC posted its slowest pace of monthly revenue expansion since October, highlighting the potential challenges of sustaining a torrid AI-fueled pace of growth. AI data center operator CoreWeave gave a disappointing forecast for the current quarter, sparking concerns about slowing growth at a time when the company is spending heavily to bolster its operations. SoftBank Group has downsized plans for a $10 billion margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake after facing hesitation from some creditors, people familiar with the matter said. And a key company behind Thailand’s national AI effort is suspected of helping to smuggle billions of dollars worth of Super Micro Computer servers containing advanced Nvidia chips to China, with Alibaba one of multiple end customers. In other corporate news, Toyota Motor forecast an abrupt drop in operating profit due to higher raw material costs from disruptions stemming from the Iran war. Citigroup is expanding its foreign-exchange business with hedge fund and private-equity clients as global trading volumes rise
US stocks rose at the end of a week in which optimism that the conflict is nearing an end and blowout earnings from major tech firms drove the S&P 500 to a succession of records. Hopes that oil flows would soon resume through the Strait of Hormuz also eased inflation worries, even as uncertainty remains over how soon the US and Iran can reach an agreement. US markets were the standout performers on a tough day for stocks elsewhere as clashes in the Middle East risked undermining efforts to secure a permanent end to the war. Stock indexes in Europe and Asia fell. Brent advanced as much as 2.9% before trimming the move to trade just above $100 a barrel. Treasuries rose ahead of April’s payroll numbers, with the two-year yield falling one basis point to 3.90%. UK government bonds advance, led by longer-dated maturities after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he had no plans to step aside as Labour leader after early results in local elections showed losses for his party.
“For now, investor sentiment remains strong as the equity market is looking through high oil prices,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. “We continue to stress that the strength of earnings is heavily concentrated in IT sectors. These sectors are also the least exposed to physical supply chains and commodity pass-through.”
In the latest developments in the Middle East, Iran said it seized a tanker that appeared to be a sanctioned vessel carrying its own oil. Meanwhile, US forces targeted missile and drone launch sites and other military assets in Iran that they said were responsible for attacking US warships transiting the strait. The clashes came as the US awaited a response from Iran on a proposed deal to open Hormuz and end the war. President Donald Trump threatened more intense strikes if Iran refuses his terms.
A pause in worrying headlines out of the Middle East would allow markets and the Fed to focus on nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. New York for fresh clues about US economic resilience. Bloomberg Economics expects 57,000 jobs were added in April, slightly below sellside consensus for 65,000, while the “whisper” number is 71,000. Options pricing around the print continues to drift lower, with S&P 500 options implying only about a 0.6% move on the release (our full preview is here).
“I would expect a stronger-than-expected set of figures to keep Fed hawks in charge, without necessarily taming equity appetite,” wrote Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Softer-than-expected figures “could revive dovish Fed expectations and provide further support to equity valuations, provided that war headlines leave some room for reaction.”
Jobs are a hot topic in more ways than one this Friday. Block offered a sunnier outlook for profits and growth after orchestrating layoffs linked to AI that executives said were painful but necessary. Cybersecurity firm Cloudflare plans to cut one-fifth of workers as it accelerates its shift to an agentic AI-first operating model. Upwork intends to reduce its workforce by about 24%, while Fidelity is overhauling its tech and product teams. In all cases “the increased adoption of AI tools is a huge factor,” Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said on the recent bout of job cuts. He cautioned “this type of behaviour tends to be contagious.”
Meanwhile, investors flocked to cash and bonds last week and emerging market stocks saw their biggest outflows since January, according to Bank of America. The US had its sixth week of equity inflows at $9.3 billion, BofA’s Michael Hartnett said. Elsewhere, aggregate retail investor equity flows on Citadel Securities’ platform surged back to elevated levels last week. In other investing news, 43% of large cap active funds are outperforming their benchmarks, according to a BofA analysis of US mutual fund performance, better than the 29% that outperformed last year. Separately, some hedge fund categories, such as macro funds, appear to still have room to increase their equity exposures, according to JPMorgan strategists.
A pillar of support for equities may not be quite what it seems, according to Bloomberg Macro Strategist Simon White. Buyback announcements are surging this year. However, the risk of disappointment is rising as actual repurchases heavily lag the original commitments made, Simon writes.
Jeffrey Gundlach said he was repositioning some of DoubleLine Capital’s funds for the scenario that the US government could restructure its debt in response to a potential future recession. A publicly-traded private credit fund managed by Goldman Sachs put two additional companies on non-accrual status in the first quarter, as the industry grapples with mounting concerns over exposure to businesses vulnerable to AI-driven disruption.
With earnings season in its tail end, of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported thus far, 84% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while 11% have missed.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls 0.5%, led by declines in insurance and travel stocks while media and energy outperformed. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Bechtle rises as much as 6.9% following its first-quarter results as Jefferies says the IT services provider’s positive momentum has continued
- Brembo shares rise as much as 8.5% and are set for a record weekly gain after robust first-quarter results that prompted Banca Akros to raise its recommendation on the Italian auto parts firm
- Ferrovial rises as much as 3.6%, the most in a month, after the infrastructure group beats first-quarter expectations, with US managed lanes driving performance and construction also seen as solid
- Pirelli advances as much as 3.4% after delivering an in-line performance in the first quarter and slightly boosting its revenue guidance for the full year
- Rheinmetall shares fall 2.7% on Tradegate versus Germany’s Thursday close after JPMorgan cut its rating to neutral from overweight and slashed its price target by almost 30%
- Deutsche Lufthansa falls as much as 2.7% after Barclays downgraded the airline to underweight from equal-weight, saying tailwinds from routes typically served via Gulf hubs are likely to fade as capacity returns
- Commerzbank falls as much as 2.4% after its latest earnings. Analysts say the lender’s upgraded targets are ambitious, but also viewed with some skepticism as the bank steps up its defense against a hostile takeover attempt by UniCredit
- Intertek shares fall as much as 7.9%, the most in two months, as the testing and inspection company rejects EQT’s latest takeover proposal of £58.00 per share in cash
Earlier, Asian stocks fell to trim weekly gains as renewed tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.6% following a two-day rally as some investors took profit ahead of Iran’s response to a US peace proposal. Samsung Electronics, TSMC and SoftBank weighed the most on the regional decline. Still, the index has risen more than 5% for the week and was poised for its longest winning streak since January, driven largely by a sustained tech rally. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Information Technology Index has surged over 13%, its best week since late 2022. Across the region, markets saw renewed risk-off sentiment on Friday after the US struck military targets in Iran in response to attacks on three Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz. Australia, Indonesia and Hong Kong were among the hardest hit.
In FX, the pound gains 0.4% after PM Keir Starmer said he had no plans to step aside as Labour leader after early results in local elections showed losses for his party; the dollar falls across the board. The Norwegian krone is leading gains among the G-10 currencies, rising 1.2%.
In rates, treasuries hold small gains in early US session, led by front-end and belly sectors as oil prices stabilize. Oil prices partially unwind Thursday’s rebound despite escalation of Middle East war, with US and Iran clashing near the Strait of Hormuz. US yields richer by 1bp-2bp in belly of the curve with 5s30s spread steeper by about 1bp; 10-year near 4.37% is down 1bp with UK counterpart outperforming by around 5bp. Gilts outperform as UK Prime Minister Starmer vows to stay on despite election setback. Gilts rallied over early London session after Starmer said he’d remain as Labour leader despite the party’s election losses
In commodities, oil prices are little changed with Brent crude futures near $100 a barrel. Precious metals rise with spot silver up almost 3% and on course for a fourth day of gains. Bitcoin rises 0.5%.
Today’s economic data slate includes April jobs report (8:30am), May preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and March wholesale trade sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (11:05am and 2:20pm). Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee are panelists at Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference (7:30pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.5%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.7%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -0.5%
- DAX -0.7%
- CAC 40 -0.6%
- 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.37%
- VIX -0.1 points at 17.03
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1188.44
- euro +0.4% at $1.1769
- WTI crude -0.8% at $94.08/barrel
Top Overnight News
- President Donald Trump said Thursday that attacks on Iran after it targeted U.S. destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz were a “love tap,” and said the ceasefire between the two countries is still in effect. ABC
- Iran is ramping up trade with China via rail to blunt the impact of a US blockade of its ports. The number of cargo trains going from Xi’an to Tehran has risen to one every three or four days from around one per week before the conflict BBG
- US prosecutors suspect a Thai AI company of helping smuggle Nvidia chips to China, with Alibaba one of multiple end customers, people familiar said. BBG
- The White House has invited a scaled-back CEO delegation to accompany President Donald Trump to Beijing next week, reflecting divisions in the administration on economic policy toward China and limited expectations for the summit. RTRS
- Sir Keir Starmer has refused to quit after a disastrous night for Labour at the polls, insisting: “I’m not going to walk away . . . and plunge the country into chaos.” With the first results in, Labour is heading for the worst local election results by any party this century. FT
- A federal trade court ruled that President Trump didn’t have the authority to impose new global tariffs after a previous set of levies was struck down by the Supreme Court in February. The decision on Thursday from the Court of International Trade invalidated Trump’s attempt to impose a new 10% tariff on goods from virtually every nation by invoking authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act. WSJ
- Big Tech’s record $725bn AI investment strategy is beginning to strain the resources of America’s largest companies, leaving them with less cash left over this year than at any point in the past decade. The combined free cash flow of the four “hyperscalers” — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta — is expected to fall to roughly $4bn in the third quarter, according to Wall Street’s forecasts, down from an average of $45bn in each quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic six years ago. FT
- Anthropic is weighing raising tens of billions of dollars this summer to fund a vast expansion in computing capacity, in a move that would catapult it past rival OpenAI to a valuation of almost $1tn. FT
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions during the night and shows no attempt to hold the cease fire.
- US VP Vance expressed concern to tech CEOs over new AI models which can autonomously find software vulnerabilities. The White House is considering an executive order to create a formal oversight process for advanced AI models and has asked Anthropic to limit access to Mythos for organisations managing critical digital infrastructure: WSJ
- Increased hyperscaler capex has come at the expense of buybacks, which fell by 64% year/year for the group during 1Q. The hyperscalers now allocate 20% of total spending to buybacks and dividends compared with an average of 34% from 2017-2022. We expect minimal hyperscaler buyback growth through 2027. Consensus estimates show hyperscaler capex amounting to 100% of cash flows from operations this year, which in turn leaves little room to return cash to shareholders without a sharp deceleration in capex growth, a large drawdown of cash balances, or a major increase in debt. Some of the buyback headwind from the hyperscalers will likely be offset by increased buyback activity among the beneficiaries of that capex, such as semiconductor firms: Goldman Sachs
Iran Latest: Reports surrounding a potential deal:
- Iran is reviewing the US response to the 14-point proposal and is expected to formally respond on Friday, according to CCTV citing Pakistani sources.
- Any agreement with Iran would be bad for Israel, even if it includes an agreement to eliminate enriched uranium, Israeli press reported citing an official.
- Iran and the US are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal, NYT reported. Three senior Iranian officials say Tehran and the United States are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal. The talks over a short-term agreement are continuing, the officials said, with negotiators trading proposals over how to describe the framework for a potential permanent deal. The three Iranian officials said a key obstacle was the US demand for commitments in advance on the fate of Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
- “A diplomatic source told Al Arabiya: Ensuring the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.”, Al Arabiya reports.
Iran Latest: Commentary following the US-Iran strikes:
- Iran’s Top Joint Military Command said US violated the ceasefire by targeting Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz; Iran will respond powerfully and without the slightest hesitation to any attack.
- US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is still on and that the US is negotiating with the Iranians; Pakistan asked the US not to do Project Freedom during the negotiations. On energy, said we do not need to export curbs on oil and fuel.
- US President Trump posted that there was no damage done to the three US destroyers that came under fire; states that Iran is led by lunatics and that the US will knock out Iran more violently if no deal is signed fast.
- US President Trump tells ABC that the retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets are just a ‘love tap’ and the ceasefire continues to be in effect.
- US military said US forces intercepted Iranian attacks and responded with self-defence strikes on Iranian military facilities; Iranian attacks were unprovoked but no US assets were hit; do not seek escalation.
- The situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal, according to Press TV.
- Saudi Arabia has not permitted the use of its airspace to support offensive military operations, Al Arabiya reported citing sources.
- There is a high state of alert in anticipation of retaliatory attacks from Hezbollah following the assassination of the Radwan Force Commander, Israeli Channel 12 reported citing sources.
- Saudi Arabia has imposed restrictions on some aspects of US activity related to military operations in the region due to fears of possible Iranian attacks without direct US support or response, ISNA reported citing a i24 sources report.
Iran Latest: Reports of overnight strikes:
- “US military attacked Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, an American official told me. The American official claimed that the attacks do not constitute a renewal of the war with Iran”, Axios’ Ravid posted.
- A massive fire at the site of Iran’s attacks last night; large fire previously detected in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam province, has moved; another big fire has been detected 30km west of Lark Island, Tasnim reported.
- UAE announces that air defence systems are responding to a missile threat.
- Hearing explosions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, ISNA reported.
- Reactivation of air defence in western areas of Tehran, Mehr News reported.
- Several explosions were heard in Abu Dhabi, IRIB News reported.
- Explosion was heard in Abu Dhabi, Fars News reported citing Arab sources.
- Three American destroyers were attacked by the Iranian Navy near the Strait of Hormuz, Tasnim sources say.
- An explosion was heard in Minab, SNN reported.
- Further explosions heard in Bandar Abbas, Mehr news reported.
- Air defences have been activated in West Tehran, Mehr News reported.
- Air defences shot down two hostile drones over Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, Mehr News reported.
- Explosions heard in Qeshm due to the confrontation of defences with small birds, ISNA reported.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the red as geopolitical tensions rose, with the US Military and the Iranian Navy exchanging fire. Despite US President Trump announcing that the ceasefire remains in place, bourses failed to see any positivity. ASX 200 opened on the softer side and extended lower, nearly wiping out the gains seen in the past 2 sessions. Real estate and Financials weighed on the index, with Macquarie being dragged down despite reporting FY earnings that beat estimates. Nikkei 225 pulled back from the ATH formed in Thursday’s session amid the negative risk tone. SoftBank has dragged the Nikkei lower after ARM tumbled on smartphone market weakness and AI chip supply concerns. Sony reported FY25/26 earnings, with operating income missing estimates, however announced a JPY 500bln share buyback programme. KOSPI slipped, as investors profit-take following the recent strength in the index, primarily driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng followed the broader risk-off tone, as Shanghai Comp. outperformed its Asia-Pac peers with only modest losses.
Top Asian News
- Japan intervened in the FX market during the May holidays, according to sources.
- Singapore is to implement new curbs on executive condos, making them fully privatised after 15 years, CNA reported.
- China’s Finance Ministry conducts issuance of CNY 45.8bln to support the development of pre-school education, CCTV reported.
- Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 52.20 (Prev. 53.0).
European bourses (STOXX -0.7%) are almost entirely in the red, with sentiment today pressured by recent flare-ups between US-Iran, whereby US struck Iranian ports which led to retaliatory attempts from the Iranian side. Though, indices are attempting to clamber off lows, with markets focusing on President Trump downplaying the attacks, calling them nothing but a “love tap”, noting that the ceasefire remains in place. European sectors are entirely in the red, display a market fearful of the current geopolitical environment; with cyclical sectors (Travel & Leisure/Consumer Products) residing at the foot of the list, whilst Energy is amongst the top performers. As for key movers this morning: Commerzbank (-0.5%, in-line metrics, raised targets and plans to cut 3k jobs), IAG (-2.7%, strong metrics but cut FY26 capacity outlook; sees strong demand), Intertek (-3%, rejects EQT’s GBP 9bln offer) US equity futures are broadly modestly firmer this morning, in contrast to the downbeat mood in Europe. In terms of key pre-market movers: CoreWeave (-6.6%, Q1 profit miss, Q2 revenue guidance missed expectations, and it raised capex forecasts), Gilead (-0.8%, mixed guidance, despite beating Q1 sales expectations).
Top European News
- UK PM Starmer said he will not be walking away and will be PM into the next general election.
- UK PM Starmer said results do not weaken his resolve, and takes responsibility for outcome.
- Labour may end up losing less than 1500 council seats in England, which may come as some relief for No.10, Journalist Schofield writes citing a poll guru.
- Reform UK Leader Farage said his party is so far exceeding his election results predictions.
- UK’s Milliband reportedly told PM Starmer he should consider setting out a timeline for his departure, via Times. The sources said Miliband made the suggestion during a private meeting with the prime minister about a fortnight ago.
FX
- DXY is on a softer footing after gaining in the prior session as geopolitics heated up. To recap. US and Iran had a brief skirmish, although the US later downplayed it and suggested the ceasefire is not broken, whilst Iran said the US broke the ceasefire, but said the situation around the islands has gone back to normal, although commentary from Iran has been somewhat sparse vs the US. Ahead, participants will be on the lookout for further geopolitical update, and then the US jobs report (full preview available in the Research Suite) and with a few central bankers on the docket, including Fed’s Cook, Waller, Goolsbee and Bowman. DXY resides towards the bottom of a 97.90-98.27 range.
- GBP benefits from a softer USD and digests the initial results from the Local Election. The initial readout from the UK local elections is not as bad as some feared for Labour, potentially providing limited/temporary respite to PM Starmer. Reminder, numerous key councils are yet to report. GBP/USD towards the top end of a 1.3543-1.3622 range.
- EUR/USD is firmer and trades towards the upper end of a 1.1721-1.17736 range, underpinned by the softer Buck. In trade, President Trump said the EU had promised to deliver its side of the deal and cut tariffs to zero, adding the bloc has until July 4th or tariffs would immediately rise to higher levels.
- JPY is flat intraday vs the USD in a narrow 156.63-156.99 band following another volatile week, although the pair remains under its 100 DMA at 157.33. The pair consolidates in a tight range just shy of the 157.00 handle, as talks of FX intervention calmed, with Japanese markets looking ahead to US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s visit to Japan.
- Antipodeans post modest gains amid high-beta properties, a rebound in commodities, although gains are capped by the cautious tone across markets awaiting clarity on the US-Iran situation.
Fixed Income
- USTs began the European day near-enough flat. Since, as energy wanes a touch, the benchmark has lifted more convincingly into the green. However, the current 110-22 high is someway shy of Thursday’s 111-03+ peak. For the US, the day is dominated by NFP, but of course, geopolitics remains in focus and we await an update on yesterday’s activity which, according to the US, did not violate the ceasefire.
- Bunds spent the morning lower by around 20 ticks, as the residual global energy bid, Dutch TTF gains and the potential for elevated US tariffs from July kept yields modestly elevated. However, as above, the magnitude of this has waned across the morning thus far, with around half of that downside trimming, to a 125.72 high. But, as with USTs, still someway shy of Thursday’s 126.14 best.
- Gilts initially opened with losses of 15 ticks and then slipped to a 87.21 low, down by 33 ticks at most but just above Thursday’s 87.13 base and by extension comfortably clear of 86.52 and then 85.76 from earlier in the week. Initial pressure in reaction to the late-Thursday geopolitical escalation, and as the UK local elections show a shift from Labour to Reform, alongside marked Conservative losses and a significant but somewhat less-than-expected move toward the Green Party (though, we await key London areas for more data). Note, we still have a lot of the count to go, with key areas reporting from 12:30BST onward; however, the scale of Labour losses is not as bad as feared and will likely provide PM Starmer with some respite.
- A point which, alongside Starmer confirming he will not resign and intends to lead the UK into the next general election, has allowed Gilts to move into the green and actually outperform peers with gains of nearly 40 ticks to a new WTD high of 87.89. Strength spurred by the market’s preference for stability. However, we await the Manchester numbers around 12:30BST which could be a momentum for Burnham to set out his case. Followed by key councils from 16:00BST onward, including Starmer’s own Camden council around 18:00BST, in addition to the Senedd and Holyrood. As such, the modest Gilt strength we are seeing and the easing of UK yields may yet prove fleeting in the days/weeks ahead.
- Australia sold AUD 1.0bln 1.25% 2032 AGBs: b/c 4.01x, average yield 4.7406%.
Commodities
- In geopolitics, US and Iranian forces exchanged major attacks near the Strait of Hormuz after Iran allegedly targeted three US Navy destroyers with missiles, drones, and fast boats; the US said it intercepted all threats and retaliated with strikes on Iranian military sites. The US military carried out strikes in Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, according to Fox News, citing a US official. The official said it was not a restart of the war or the end of the ceasefire. The UAE was simultaneously hit by renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks, most were intercepted by air defences, though several injuries and disruptions were reported. Despite the escalation, President Trump said the April ceasefire still stands, while warning that failure to reach a broader deal with Iran could lead to much heavier bombing and further regional instability. Meanwhile, Iran’s Press TV said conditions on Iranian islands and coastal cities near the Strait of Hormuz had returned to normal. Seemingly the lack of continued attacks seen as “more positive than feared”, with energy initially gapping higher at the resumption of trade before gradually waning as attacks stopped.
- WTI and Brent futures waned from overnight highs, and now post incremental losses. WTI currently trades at the lower end of a USD 93.82-98.64/bbl range, with Brent hovering around USD 99.60/bbl, within a USD 99.55-102.92/bbl range.
- Dutch TTF has fallen back towards EUR 44/MWh from earlier prices north of EUR 45/MWh. Traders are on the lookout for clarity from the Iranian side on whether the ceasefire still stands and whether diplomacy will continue.
- Spot gold is firmer as the DXY eases with oil. The bullion trades towards the top end of USD 4,673-4,734.90/oz parameters, off yesterday’s USD 4,775/oz. Gold also sees underlying support on renewed buying interest after the PBoC’s purchases, with China raising gold reserves for an 18th straight month in April, adding 260k ounces.
- Base metals are mostly firmer and benefit from the broader losses in the USD amid a lack of further US-Iran escalation following the initial skirmish. 3M LME copper resides towards the top end of USD 13,273.60-13,616.70/t.
- China to raise retail diesel and gasoline prices by CNY 310/Mt and CNY 320/Mt respectively from May 9th; part of regular price review, CCTV reported.
- Freeport Indonesia (FCX) has pushed back the full restart of its Grasberg copper mine by a year.
- Taiwan is reportedly finalising a 25-year US LNG deal valued at USD 15bln with Cheniere Energy (LNG).
- Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery (630k BPD) has returned to normal operations, according to reported.
Trade/Tariffs
- China and US are in communication on US President Trump’s visit, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson.
- US reportedly suspects that a Thai firm smuggled chips to Alibaba (BABA) , Bloomberg reported.
- The US and South Africa have started preliminary discussions over potential resources deals including bilateral investments in mining, energy and infrastructure, FT reported citing sources.
- The US Trade Court has ruled against President Trump’s 10% global tariffs.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: United States Apr Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 65k, prior 178k
- 8:30 am: United States Apr Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 2.5k, prior 15k
- 8:30 am: United States Apr Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
- 10:00 am: United States May P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 49.5, prior 49.8
- 10:00 am: United States Mar F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%
Central Bank Speakers
- 11:05 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on CNBC
- 2:20 pm: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV
- 7:30 pm: United States Fed’s Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee on Panel
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we go to press this morning, markets have slipped back thanks to questions about whether the US-Iran ceasefire is holding. Indeed, there’s been a clear escalation in the last few hours, with the US striking targets in Iran after they fired on three US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. And in turn, Trump posted that “we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!” So Brent crude is back up +1.58% this morning to $101.64/bbl, having been beneath $100/bbl for a good chunk of yesterday’s session. However, markets still aren’t pricing in the worst-case scenario, as Trump told ABC News that “the ceasefire is going. It’s in effect”, referring to the US strikes as a “love tap”.
Questions around the ceasefire have already had a market impact in Asia overnight, where all the major equity indices have lost ground. That includes the Nikkei (-0.69%), the KOSPI (-0.73%), Hang Seng (-1.17%), CSI 300 (-0.90%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.43%). Moreover, European equity futures are down, with those on the FTSE 100 (-0.70%) and the DAX (-0.87%) both lower, although US futures have picked up a bit after yesterday’s losses, with S&P 500 futures up +0.21%.
Prior to all that, Brent crude (-1.19%) had posted a modest decline yesterday to $100.06/bbl, but that was a decent recovery from the intra-day lows of $96/bbl given there were no obvious signs of progress towards a deal. Moreover, as reports of explosions in Iran came through, that pushed oil prices even higher, so whilst Brent crude spent much of the day beneath $100/bbl, it was just above that mark by the close.
These more negative headlines weighed on broader risk sentiment, leading the S&P 500 (-0.38%) to pull back from its record high. And on top of the geopolitical headlines, we also had a hawkish batch of US data, with numbers on the labour market and inflation both surprising on the upside. For instance, the NY Fed’s latest survey showed 1yr inflation expectations up to 3.64% in April (vs. 3.5% expected), which is the highest since September 2023. So that raised expectations about a more hawkish response from the Fed. And that came on top of strong labour market data, with the weekly initial jobless claims at 200k in the week ending May 2 (vs. 205k expected), which took the 4-week moving average down to a two-year low of 203.25k.
That hawkish newsflow continued with various Fed speakers. In particular, Boston Fed President Collins (a non-voter this year) said she agreed with the hawkish dissenters who didn’t want to include the easing bias in the statement. So that added to the sense there was wider scepticism around further rate cuts. We also heard from two of the hawkish dissenters. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said her own outlook was that “interest rates will be on hold for quite some time.” And Minneapolis President Kashkari said that “if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period of time, it may well be that the next move might need to be up in interest rates.” So investors priced in a more hawkish outlook, with markets pricing a 38% chance of a rate hike by March 2027 at the close, up from 21% the previous day. And in turn, Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+4.6bps) up to 3.91%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.8bps) rose to 4.39%.
This backdrop meant it was a tough one for equities as well, with the S&P 500 (-0.38%) falling back from its Wednesday record. Indeed, the losses would have been even bigger were it not for the Mag 7 (+0.71%) reaching another record. So the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.67%) saw its largest decline in almost four weeks, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.63%) struggled even more. And over in Europe, there were also broad declines, with the STOXX 600 (-1.10%) posting its biggest decline in over a month, alongside losses for the DAX (-1.02%), the CAC 40 (-1.17%) and the FTSE 100 (-1.55%).
Looking forward, we’ll get more data today with the US jobs report for April. That’s an important one, as Fed pricing has already shifted in a hawkish direction given the energy shock, and last month’s payrolls were at a 15-month high of +178k. This time round, our US economists are looking for payrolls to come in at +50k, which would actually mark the first back-to-back positive reading since May last year. Meanwhile, they see the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.
Elsewhere today, the UK will be in focus, as we’ve just started to get the results from the local elections overnight. We’ve only got a few results so far, but the governing Labour Party have suffered heavy losses in the seats they were defending, whilst Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has seen major gains. Today, it’ll be important to watch what Labour MPs and cabinet ministers are saying, as gilt markets are focused on whether PM Keir Starmer will remain in post following the results. That’s because of expectations that a new Labour leader might ease the fiscal rules and raise gilt issuance, so when Starmer’s position has come into question, that’s coincided with selloffs for gilts.
Before all that, sovereign bonds were fairly steady across Europe yesterday, with the 10yr bund yield (+0.1bps) remaining at 3.00%. There had been more of a rally earlier in the session, but that unwound as oil prices moved higher again, with yields tracking those moves. So yields on 10yr gilts (+0.9bps) and OATs (+0.4bps) also saw a modest increase, although those on BTPs (-0.6bps) came down slightly. Otherwise, investor expectations of an ECB rate hike in June were also steady yesterday, with markets pricing in an 80% chance of a hike by the close, up from 79% on Wednesday.
Finally, there were a couple of noteworthy headlines on US trade yesterday. First, the 10% global tariff currently in place was found to be unlawful by the US Court of International Trade. That’s the one the administration had imposed under the Trade Act of 1974, after the Supreme Court ruled against the previous IEEPA tariffs earlier this year. But for now, at least, the Court of International Trade only blocked them from enforcing it against the companies that sued and Washington State. The second story was that Trump set a deadline of July 4 for the EU to “deliver their side of the Deal”, or tariffs would be raised.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US jobs report for April, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May, and German industrial production for March. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Nagel, the Fed’s Cook, Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee, BoE Governor Bailey, and BoE Deputy Governor Breeden.
1 b European opening report
1 c) Asian opening report
Crude pares gains as US plays down strikes on Iran; UK Ruling Labour set to suffer local election losses, GBP resilient – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 02:00 AM
- The US military has carried out strikes in Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, according to Fox News, citing a US official. The official said this is not a restart of the war or the end of the ceasefire.
- The US military said US forces intercepted Iranian attacks and responded with self-defence strikes against Iranian military facilities.
- US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is still on and that the US is negotiating with the Iranians. He added that Pakistan asked the US not to do Project Freedom during the negotiations.
- Iran’s Top Joint Military Command said the US violated the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz.
- The situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal, according to Press TV.
- In UK local elections, Reform UK has been the clear beneficiary, exceeding 300 gained seats while Labour and the Conservatives suffer, losing 220 and 108 seats respectively, and counting.
- Looking highlights, include German Balance of Trade (Mar), German Industrial Production (Mar), Canadian Jobs Report (Apr), US Jobs Report (Apr), University of Michigan Survey Prelim. (May). Speakers include ECB President Lagarde, de Guindos, Cipollone, Schnabel, BoE’s Breeden, Bailey, Fed’s Cook, Waller, and Bowman.
SNAPSHOT
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US military said US forces intercepted Iranian attacks and responded with self-defence strikes against Iranian military facilities. The Iranian attacks were unprovoked, but no US assets were hit and the US does not seek escalation.
- US military has carried out strikes in Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, according to Fox News citing a US official. The official said is not a restart of the war or the end of the ceasefire.
- US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is still on and that the US is negotiating with the Iranians. He added that Pakistan asked the US not to do Project Freedom during the negotiations.
- US President Trump posted that there was no damage done to the three US destroyers that came under fire. He stated that Iran is led by lunatics and that the US will knock out Iran more violently if no deal is signed fast. This followed on from comments he made to ABC, stating that the retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets are just a ‘love tap’ and the ceasefire continues to be in effect.
- Iran’s Top Joint Military Command said the US violated the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz and Iran will respond powerfully and without the slightest hesitation to any attack.
- ‘Investigations in Bandar Abbas show that during the exchange of fire between the Iranian armed forces and the enemy, parts of the commercial area of Bahman Pier were targeted.’, according to Fars News. Fars later reported the claim of UAE’s role in the explosion, with Israel denying any involvement.
- Several explosions heard near Bandar Abbas, according to Fars News. Tasnim later reported that some sources say that these sounds are related to IRGC naval operations to warn some ships about unauthorized passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
- An Iranian military official said following the US military’s attack on an Iranian oil tanker, the enemy units in the Strait of Hormuz came under Iranian missile fire and were forced to flee after suffering damage, according to Iranian media. This was later reported by Tasnim that the enemy units were three American destroyers.
- The situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal, according to Press TV.
- Iran is reviewing the US response to the 14-point proposal and is expected to formally respond on Friday, according to CCTV citing Pakistani sources.
- Iran and the US are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal, according to NYT.
- A senior Iranian official said Iran wouldn’t allow the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with “an unrealistic plan” and then exit the war without paying any reparations “for all the damage inflicted on Iran,” according to WSJ citing Press TV.
- Iran Secretary of the Parliament’s National Security Commission said no uranium has been exported from the country, according to Nour News.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said negotiations will continue in a new format and we are not entering into nuclear issues at this time, according to Nour News.
- Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on US military access to bases and airspace, according to the WSJ. Further, US officials state that the Trump administration is now looking to restart the operation to guide commercial ships with naval and air support that it had paused after 36 hours this week. It was later reported that Saudi Arabia has not permitted the use of its airspace to support offensive military operations, Al Arabiya reports citing sources.
- However, Al Jazeera later reported that the reports about preparations to resume Operation Freedom to re-open the Strait of Hormuz are incorrect.
- UAE announced that air defence systems are responding to a missile threat. There were then further reports of explosions in the UAE.
- Reports of multiple explosions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
- Any agreement with Iran would be bad for Israel, even if it includes an agreement to eliminate enriched uranium, according to Israeli press citing an official.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks ended lower while crude futures rose as markets swung from early optimism on Hormuz negotiations to renewed pessimism on escalating geopolitical risks. The broader risk tone soured after reports of multiple explosions heard in multiple areas of Iran, including Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. Fox News later reported, citing a US official, that the US military attacked multiple targets however claiming that this is not a renewal of the war. This was rebuked by Iran’s Top Joint Military Command, announcing that this violates the ceasefire and that Iran will respond powerfully and without the slightest hesitation to any attack. Sector performance was mostly weaker, although Technology outperformed with software names supported after a strong Datadog (DDOG) earnings report, while Microsoft (MSFT) also saw gains.
- SPX -0.38% at 7,337, NDX -0.12% at 28,564, DJI -0.63% at 49,602, RUT -1.63% at 2,840.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said a promise was made that the EU would deliver their side of the deal and, as per agreement, cut their tariffs to zero; however, the EU has until the July 4th, or tariffs would immediately jump to higher levels.
- The US Trade Court has ruled against President Trump’s 10% global tariffs.
CENTRAL BANKS
- Fed’s Williams (voter, Neutral) said there is a lot of uncertainty in the economy right now but the economy has remained resilient with labour market stability. On interest rates, he said rates are not historically high.
- Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter, statement dissenter) said inflation remains too high.
- Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) said she sees a lot of uncertainty in economic outlook and that the Fed should be neutral in policy stance given the uncertainty. Hammack later commented that she hears concerns among businesses that an inflationary mindset is starting to become entrenched in people’s minds.
- Fed’s Daly (2027 Voter) said the main take away from the FOMC is that everyone agreed to keep rates unchanged and that how the statement is worded matters less than what the FOMC actually does. She added that there are no signs of rising long-term inflation expectations.
- ECB’s Schnabel said her view is that some damage done from the Iran war will be hard to reverse. If higher energy costs are passed on to prices or wages increase in response, which is the sign policy has to react.
- Banxico cut rates by 25bps to 6.50% (prev. 6.75%), as expected; vote split was 3-2 (Borja and Heath voted to maintain rates.)
- Westpac now sees the RBA hiking rates in August and September (prev. June and August).
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- The Senate Banking Committee is preparing to notice a markup for the Clarity Act as soon as tomorrow and has circulated draft legislative text to select industry members ahead of a potential Thursday vote, according to Eleanor Terrett citing sources.
- The Trump administration plans to invite CEOs from NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Exxon (XOM), Boeing (BA), and other big companies to accompany the president on his trip to China next week, according to Semafor citing sources.
- US businesses have urged the Trump administration to intervene over new EU consumer protection rules that they fear will leave them open to an avalanche of class action lawsuits, according to the FT.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the red as geopolitical tensions rose, with the US Military and the Iranian Navy exchanging fire. Despite US President Trump announcing that the ceasefire remains in place, bourses failed to see any positivity.
- ASX 200 opened on the softer side and extended lower, nearly wiping out the gains seen in the past 2 sessions. Real estate and Financials weighed on the index, with Macquarie being dragged down despite reporting FY earnings that beat estimates.
- Nikkei 225 pulled back from the ATH formed in Thursday’s session amid the negative risk tone. SoftBank has dragged the Nikkei lower after ARM tumbled on smartphone market weakness and AI chip supply concerns. Sony reported FY25/26 earnings, with operating income missing estimates, however announced a JPY 500bln share buyback programme.
- KOSPI slipped, as investors profit-take following the recent strength in the index, primarily driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
- Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng followed the broader risk-off tone, as Shanghai Comp. outperformed its Asia-Pac peers with only modest losses.
- US equity futures initially began futures trade under modest pressure but have since reversed as trade progressed.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.8% after cash closed -1.0% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY consolidated in a narrow 98.19-98.28 range, as updates following the volatile end of Thursday’s session remained light. US President Trump announced that the ceasefire remains intact, however, threatening to knock out Iran more violently if no deal is signed fast.
- EUR/USD oscillated in a 1.1721-1.1735 band. Brief positiveness was seen in the EUR after President Trump cut tariffs to 0%, however contingent on the basis that the EU delivers its side of the deal by July 4th, or else tariffs will jump to much higher levels.
- GBP/USD has benefited thus far from the slightly softer dollar, as votes get counted and results pass through from the local elections. Thus far, it has been a horrid time for Labour, losing 191 seats and 6 councils to No Overall Control. On the other hand, Reform is yet to lose a seat and has gained 263 seats. In terms of PM Starmer’s future, the Hartlepool Labour MP has called for the PM’s resignation after losing to NOC, while The Times reported that UK MP Miliband told the PM he should consider setting out a timeline for his departure.
- USD/JPY consolidated in a tight range just shy of the 157.00 handle, as talks of FX intervention calm with Japanese markets fully open and as markets look ahead to US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s visit to Japan.
- Antipodeans traded muted as the risk tone remains subdued.
FIXED INCOME
- UST Futures stabilised after Thursday’s selloff, primarily driven by higher energy prices amid heightened geopolitical tensions, albeit quite briefly. In short, the US military confirmed that it defensively attacked Iranian military facilities after Iran attacked US destroyers in the Strait. Despite the exchange of fire, US President Trump said the ceasefire is still on. USTs rotated in a 4-tick range with US NFP ahead, expectations at 62K.
- Bund Futures, similarly, consolidated after it returned below the 126.00 handle. ECB speakers in the latter end of Thursday’s session failed to move debt, after chief-hawk Schnabel highlighted that some of the damage done from the war will be hard to reverse, and that if wages increase in response to higher energy prices, it will be a sign to be reactive.
- JGB Futures steadily climbed from Thursday’s post-cash selloff, helped by the pullback in energy prices.
- Australia sells AUD 1.0bln 1.25% 2032 AGBs: b/c 4.01x, average yield 4.7406%.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures have started the Asia-Pac session in a relatively calm manner after the chaotic newsflow post-settlement. The chaos came following explosions in the Bandar Abbas and Qeshm port area. This was later confirmed by Fox News that it was the US military that carried out the strikes in the area and then further confirmed by the US military themselves, stating the US was acting in self-defence after Iran attacked three destroyers in the Strait. Iran’s Top Joint Military Command said the US violated the ceasefire by targeting Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions have calmed down since, with Press TV stating that the situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal while President Trump also stated that the ceasefire remains in place. This calmness has helped WTI and Brent pare back some of its post-settlement gains, pulling back to a trough of USD 95.08/bbl and USD 100.75/bbl respectively.
- Precious Metals have rebounded from Thursday’s afternoon selloff, as spot gold regained the USD 4700/oz handle as tensions in the Middle East calm.
- 3M LME Copper pared back its earlier losses and trades at the upper end of its USD 13.27k-13.36k/t range.
- IEA Chief Birol said the IEA has only released around 20% of its total oil stockpile so far and is ready to act again.
- Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery (630k BPD) has returned to normal operations.
- The US and South Africa have started preliminary discussions over potential resources deals including bilateral investments in mining, energy and infrastructure, according to the FT, citing sources.
- Freeport Indonesia has pushed back the full restart of its Grasberg copper mine by a year.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin fell back below the USD 80k handle.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan intervened in the FX market during the May holidays, according to sources.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 52.20 (Prev. 53.0).
- Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Final (Apr) 51.0 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 53.4).
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- EU leaders prepare for potential talks with Russian President Putin, according to FT citing official, as European capitals grow frustrated with negotiations to end the war in Ukraine led by US President Trump.
EU/UK
UK LOCAL ELECTIONS
- Reform UK has been the clear beneficiary, exceeding 300 gained seats while Labour and the Conservatives suffer, losing 220 and 108 seats respectively, and counting.
- Labour has lost Oxford, Tameside, Exeter, Hartlepool and Redditch to no overall control, while the Lib Dems gain Stockport and Portsmouth from no overall control.
- In terms of calls for PM Starmer to stand down, only the Hartlepool Labour MP has done so, coming after the associated council lost all of its seats.
- UK’s Miliband reportedly told PM Starmer he should consider setting out a timeline for his departure, according to the Times.
- Labour may end up losing less than 1500 council seats in England, which may come as some relief for No.10, Journalist Schofield writes citing a poll guru.
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
JAPAN
Toyota And Honda See Sharp Declines In Profit Amidst Iran War Pressures, Spiking EV Costs
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 03:50 PM
Toyota expects a sharp decline in profit as rising material and shipping costs tied to the Iran conflict pressure its business, according to Bloomberg.
The automaker projected operating income of ¥3 trillion for the fiscal year ending March 2027, well below both analyst expectations of ¥4.6 trillion and last year’s ¥3.8 trillion.
The company said supply chain disruptions are driving up costs for aluminum, resins, and other materials, while logistics issues remain unpredictable. Toyota estimates the regional conflict could reduce earnings by about ¥670 billion.
After the forecast was released, shares dropped as much as 3.5%. Analysts noted Toyota may be giving conservative guidance, but future performance will depend heavily on how long the conflict continues.
Julie Boote, an analyst at London-based research firm Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd told Bloomberg: “Toyota did not only miss consensus estimates, but also its own forecast, as auto unit sales came in much weaker than predicted by the automaker. It is still likely that Toyota is once again lowballing its guidance, with earnings upgrades possible during the fiscal year; much depends also on the development of the Iran war.”
Toyota expects vehicle sales to dip slightly this year, though hybrid sales are projected to surpass 5 million units for the first time. The company is also focusing more on after-sales services, which it sees as a major future profit driver.
Despite record annual revenue of ¥50.7 trillion, quarterly operating profit fell 49% due to tariffs and higher shipping expenses.
Meanwhile, Honda just posted an operating loss of 400 billion yen — its first in the company’s history, according to Nikkei. The loss was primarily driven by problems tied to its electric vehicle business and marks the company’s first operating loss since going public in 1957.
This is a major decline from the 1.2 trillion yen operating profit it reported the previous fiscal year. It would also be the second-largest operating loss ever reported by a Japanese automaker, behind Toyota Motor Corporation’s 461 billion yen loss during the 2009 global financial crisis, although accounting differences make direct comparisons imperfect, Nikkei writes.
In March, Honda said it expected an operating loss between 270 billion and 570 billion yen and announced it was canceling three planned EV launches in North America.
The company also projected up to 2.5 trillion yen in EV-related costs over fiscal years 2025–2027, including asset impairment charges and supplier compensation.
Despite these losses, Honda plans to return to operating profitability in the current fiscal year, supported by strong motorcycle sales in Asia, a weaker yen, and a broader turnaround strategy for its North American and Chinese businesses.
Nissan had also trimmed production due to the Iran war earlier in the year.
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
3. CHINA/
CHINA//SAUDIA ARABIA
Saudi Arabia’s $1Tn Wealth Fund Opens Shanghai Office As China Ties Deepen
Thursday, May 07, 2026 – 10:35 PM
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) opened a second office in mainland China earlier this year, establishing a Shanghai branch to expand dealmaking and attract more Chinese investment into the kingdom, Bloomberg reports.
The office was registered last year, falls under PIF’s Beijing branch, and is led by Lily Cong, a former chief representative of Fidelity International in China’s capital.
The Shanghai outpost was reportedly created to strengthen the $1 trillion fund’s ability to pursue outbound deals in China, while officials are also seeking to bring more Chinese companies into Saudi Arabia.
This move strengthens Riyadh’s investment relationship with Beijing, while the US continues to be a major market for the kingdom. The Shanghai office expands PIF’s global presence, which already features offices in New York, London, Hong Kong, and Paris.
Saudi Arabia and China already maintain strategic and financial links across sectors, including energy and finance, while other Gulf wealth funds are also looking to expand their exposure to China.
Abu Dhabi is also considering placing Chinese assets held by two of its wealth funds into a new entity, according to earlier reports, a move that could pave the way for a broader shift in its investment strategy.
The Gulf investment push comes amid major shifts in West Asian markets following the US war on Iran, triggering regional disruptions that have put pressure on Gulf economies and accelerated moves away from dollar-dominated energy trade.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states have deepened yuan-based financial links with China, while disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have further exposed the fragility of the “petrodollar order”.
According to a report by Fortune, Riyadh did not formally renew its 2024 commitment to price oil exclusively in US dollars, a year after signing a $7 billion currency swap agreement with Beijing.
The Saudi central bank is also a key participant in the mBridge digital payment platform, which enables direct currency exchanges via blockchain technology.
Economists cited by Fortune say the shift reflects China’s growing weight in Saudi trade, as Beijing has displaced the US as the kingdom’s largest oil customer.
“The economic gravity pointed toward yuan while the currency arrangement pointed toward dollars,” EBC Financial Group analyst Michael Harris wrote.
Saudi Arabia still conducts most deals in US dollars, but expanding financial ties with Beijing signal a broader effort to diversify trade and investment channels as China positions the yuan as a possible alternative in global energy markets.
END
CHINA/USA/GOLD/ROBERT H…
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5c9d49e5-e3e2-4caf-91cd-cd4df9fa722a_1200x690.png 1,200×690 pixels
What the US is shipping to China!
The East is essentially telling the West: “We no longer want your debasing fiat currency; if you want our rare earths and other critical materials, you must pay us in the only money that cannot be printed.”
The same holds truth for cash where deployment is preferred in all things that result in value from labor as opposed to debt. That is why equities do better when confidence fails to ignite belief in debt. It matters not whether this is a household or a country the principal is the same.
END
4 EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK/NIGEL FARAGE
NIGEL FARAGE WINS WITH HISTORIC GAINS IN LOCAL ELECTIONS
(ZERO HEDGE)
Farage’s Reform UK Storms To Historic Gains In Local Elections As Labour Collapses
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 01:40 AM
Reform UK is on track for historic gains in the 2026 UK local elections – seizing hundreds of seats in the early counts while Labour and the Conservatives suffer heavy defeats across England.
With results from 39 of 136 councils declared overnight (roughly 28% of the vote counted), Reform UK has already gained over 300 seats – a remarkable surge for a party that had almost no local presence just a few years ago.
Now more than 300 seats won for Reform UK. Absolutely brilliant.
Labour has lost 220 seats, the Conservatives 107, while the Liberal Democrats gained 35 and the Greens 22.https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=will-reform-uk-win-the-most-council-seat-elections-in-the-2026-united-kingdom-local-elections&theme=dark&height=300Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Yes 99% · No 1%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Labour on the Brink in Traditional Strongholds
The scale of Labour’s collapse is stark. In areas where the party was defending seats, it has retained only 23% so far. One senior Conservative commentator noted on X that Labour is “currently losing 84% of the seats they are defending.”
Labour has already lost control of at least five councils, including long-held northern strongholds. Tameside fell after 47 years of Labour rule. Heavy losses were also recorded in Halton, Hartlepool, Redditch and Tamworth, with Reform UK making major inroads in former Labour heartlands across the North and Midlands.
Birmingham on the Brink of a Reform Takeover?
Nowhere is the drama more intense than in Birmingham, where all 101 council seats are up for election. Pre-poll surveys had Reform UK as the largest party or very close to it, with some projections putting them on 47 seats – just short of an outright majority.
A widely shared post on X claimed Reform UK is “tipped to take control of Birmingham City Council in what could become one of the biggest political upsets in modern British politics.” Local issues including a prolonged bin strike and council finances have dominated the campaign. Results from Britain’s second city are expected later today.
Across the declared councils, Reform UK is winning approximately 48% of the seats contested so far. Many authorities are heading for no overall control, creating a fragmented political map.
The Liberal Democrats enjoyed a standout result in Richmond upon Thames, taking every seat. The Greens also made solid gains.
In Scotland, counting for the Scottish Parliament election begins this morning, with first results expected around lunchtime. Polls had suggested the SNP would fall short of a majority while Reform UK was on course for a significant breakthrough. Wales is also counting today.
Political Earthquake for Starmer
These are the first major elections since Labour’s 2024 landslide victory and represent a serious test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has hailed the results as evidence of a “historic change in British politics.”
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch faces questions about her party’s ability to stem the flow of votes to Reform on the right.
This is a developing story. More councils – including several major metropolitan boroughs – will declare throughout Friday, with the full national picture expected by Saturday.
The last word goes to @higgyboson
CV.
Completely ruined a major 126 year old political party in less than 2 years.
Became the most hated UK Prime Minister in history.
Unilaterally gave away billions of £’s of taxpayers money with no accountability required from the recipients.
Wrecked the economy.
Failed to control mass immigration, both legal and illegal.
Failed to address the problem of muslim rape gangs.
Increased welfare payments to a point where benefits now cost more than the entire income tax take.
Allowed weekly pro-Palestinian hate marches on our streets.
Consistently referred to people with concerns about the proliferation of migrant violence as “Far Right”.
Promoted one of his friends to high office despite knowing he was a buddy of one of the most prolific paedophiles on the planet.
Consistently worked to reverse the result of the biggest democratic vote in British history by stealth.
Placed tax dodgers, fraudsters and CV fantasists in Ministerial posts.
Invited a known islamist terrorist to No.10 while simultaneously banning foreign commentators from the UK for merely reporting on the border fiasco.
Took two weeks to find a Royal Navy ship that actually worked.
Introduced legislation that will destroy the private rental market and create hundreds of thousands of homeless families.
Promised to build 1.5 million homes in five years despite everyone telling him it would be impossible.
Failed to help motorists and hauliers after the rise in the price of fuel caused by the war in Iran.
Continues to allow Ed Milliband to wreck the UK’s energy industry with his insane Net Zero policies.
Raised the minimum wage and employers National Insurance contributions leading to thousands of job losses and businesses folding.
Introduced VAT to private school fees leading to many excellent seats of learning closing their doors.
Consistently refused to answer questions during the session in the parliamentary week set aside for this specific purpose.
Consistently failed to accept responsibility for any wrong doing, preferring to sack others instead.
Alienated “working people” while claiming to be on their side.
And the lies. The constant lies.
Failure. Failure. And more Failure.
Time to go.
END
UK
Gilt Yields Fall As Starmer Vows To Stay On After Farage’s Reform UK Storms To Historic Gains In ‘Midterms’
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 08:00 AM
Update (0800ET): After hitting 28-year highs earlier in the week, UK gilt yields are lower as UK PM Keir Starmer said he had no plans to step aside as Labour leader after early results in local elections showed Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK racking up sweeping gains over Britain’s governing party.
Cable is also stronger against the dollar…
The Polymarket prediction platform showed punters paring bets on a Starmer departure this year, giving a 57% chance of the premier exiting by Dec. 31, down from 70% on Thursday.
UK’s Milliband reportedly told PM Starmer he should consider setting out a timeline for his departure, via Times.
The sources said Miliband made the suggestion during a private meeting with the prime minister about a fortnight ago.
But, for now, Starmer is staying:
“These are really tough results — I’m not going to sugarcoat it,” Starmer told broadcasters on Friday, while resolving to stay on as prime minister until the next election.
“The voters have sent a message about the pace of change, how they want their lives improved. I was elected to meet those challenges, and I’m not going to walk away from those challenges and plunge the country into chaos.”
So far, markets have responded positively suggesting investors think the more pessimistic predictions about the outcome will probably be avoided.
Still, Bloomberg economist Dan Hanson warns that, with plenty more results to come in, the final verdict is uncertain, as is the likely reaction from Labour MPs.
Here’s how to judge the results:
The risk for the economic outlook is that the local elections spark a chain of events that eventually sees Prime Minister Keir Starmer replaced by a leader who favors looser fiscal policy.
With the economy in the midst of a fresh inflationary shock and the public finances stretched, a promise of higher spending would put a new leader on a collision course with the gilt market.
“We’re proving in a big way, we can win in areas that Labour have dominated, frankly, since the end of World War I,” Farage told journalists in London on Friday.
“You’re witnessing an historic shift in British politics. This is now the most national of all parties. We’re competitive in the north of Scotland. We were competitive in Cornwall in the county elections last year. We’re competitive in every part of the country, and we’re here to stay.”
* * *
Reform UK is on track for historic gains in the 2026 UK local elections – seizing hundreds of seats in the early counts while Labour and the Conservatives suffer heavy defeats across England.
With results from 39 of 136 councils declared overnight (roughly 28% of the vote counted), Reform UK has already gained over 300 seats – a remarkable surge for a party that had almost no local presence just a few years ago.
Labour has lost 220 seats, the Conservatives 107, while the Liberal Democrats gained 35 and the Greens 22.
EU
The EU Is Pushing “Driver-Monitoring Cameras” – Here’s Why…
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,
From July of this year, every vehicle registered in the European Union will be required to have driver-monitoring cameras in place. That’s not every new car manufactured, but every car registered.
The “Advanced Driver Distraction Warning” (ADDW) cameras are designed to monitor driver behaviour for signs of potential distraction, and then set off a warning if those signs are detected.
It was first announced in 2024 as part of the EU’s “Vision Zero” plan to eliminate car-related deaths by 2050.
But it’s not really about that.
It’s never about what they say it’s about.
Here’s where this goes…
Firstly, kiss successful insurance claims goodbye.
Any accident will be blamed on “sub-optimal driver performance”, and that time you checked your phone while stopped at a light, or your hands moved briefly from the 10-and-2 or your eyeline wasn’t correctly picked up by the mirror sensor, will be used to blame your fender-bender on you.
This will create a change in accident reporting statistics, spiking “driver error” as the cause for anything and everything that goes wrong on the road.
This, in turn, will kick off a big “people drive dangerously” propaganda push.
Headlines like “ADDW data harvesting has shown up 80% of us might be driving more recklessly than we think”, or “most veteran drivers slip in to bad habits, reports show” will appear.
Then comes the new legislation to act on this totally fabricated problem.
What is it? It’s re-certification.
That’s not speculation; it already happened. Under new EU rules, passed just a few months ago, every driver has to be re-certified and issued a new driver’s license after 15 years. It would be the smallest of tweaks to add “or after Y number of distraction warnings are recorded” to that legislation.
The new driver’s licenses will be digital, with biometrics included. It’s possible new cars will be undrivable without a scan of your biometric license.
Your car’s data will be uploaded to a database, of course. That’s going to happen.
…in fact, it already is.
It’s not at all far-fetched to imagine your driver monitoring data getting scanned for errors by an AI, and any detected errors putting points on your license. If you go over a certain number of points, your ability to drive is taken away…pending recertification.
You can appeal, and drive while the appeal takes place. But the appeal fee will be greater than the recertification fee, and if you lose, you have to pay extra legal costs, and you’re subject to an extended driving ban.
This will be covered in the press as a universally Good Thing.
Headlines will celebrate the (almost entirely fictional) decrease in traffic fatalities, whilst baselessly claiming that the smaller number of private vehicles on the road has “improved pollution levels in the inner cities”.
An opinion piece from an anonymous “former driver” will appear in the Guardian, “I lost my driver’s license, and it’s the best thing that ever happened to me”.
It will talk up how much money they’re saving on petrol and road tax, and how much fitter they get walking and cycling everywhere and how they know their neighbours so well now.
Not forgetting all sorts of cozy anecdotes about the charming characters you meet and life-affirming tableaux you witness using public transport.
Meanwhile, American “journalists” will wax poetic about the EU’s “forward-thinking system”, and the UK press and punditry will talk of “lagging behind the EU”, and blame every road accident on Brexit.
Some academics will publish a paper finding that “private car ownership has decreased under EU driver monitoring regulations”, and this “unintended upside” will be widely applauded.
Cue Buzzfeed: “New license rules have taken cars off the road, and it’s a good thing.”
And Vox: “The EU’s driver’s license law has given us a glimpse of what a car-less future could look like, and it’s beautiful”.
While all this is going on, there will be persistent white noise on the safety of “robot drivers” vs human drivers, talking up automatic driving software in Chinese electric cars and so on.
Public transport will be increasingly automated too – whether really automated, or just remotely driven doesn’t matter. The point will be to remove images of people driving from the public sphere.
The important part is you don’t get to decide where you’re going or how you’re getting there.
The end goal will be to inculcate a generally anti-car atmosphere, where even knowing how to drive will be considered somewhat old-fashioned.
Middle-class parents will boast to social media echo chambers that “I never wanted my Jacinda to learn!”, and receive bot-fueled applause as a reward. Implausible self-congratulatory anecdotes detailing how “My eight-year-old just told me he doesn’t want to drive because it’s bad for the planet! Children are so wise!” will go viral.
Because the easiest way to trap people is to make freedom uncool.
That might seem like a lot of speculation based on a little information, and in some ways it is, but pattern recognition is important. It’s much easier to put out a fire that hasn’t started yet, and we know they want to burn it all down.
We know they want to end private vehicle ownership; they have repeatedly said so.
Well, this is how they do that. A little at a time, creating atmospheres and environments. Seemingly arbitrary rules and regulations with “unforeseen consequences”. That’s how they work now, they come at us sideways with slow-developing long-cons, because they can’t afford to work in straight lines, not since Covid.
Stuff like this might seem a small – a throwaway issue vs war or the price of oil – but the powers-that-shouldn’t-be have an eye on the far horizon when they take small steps, and we should pay attention to where they want to take us.
END
BALTIC STATES/EU
Baltic States Warn Of Unfunded Debt Surge For Europe’s Defense Splurge
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 04:15 AM
In a rare outbreak of sanity from the continent that perfected kicking the can, officials on NATO’s eastern front are openly admitting what Brussels and Frankfurt have spent years denying: you can’t fund a permanent war footing with infinite borrowing and hope the bond market never notices.
Estonia’s outgoing ECB rate hawk Madis Muller dropped the red pill in parliament Thursday, bluntly telling lawmakers that jacking up budget deficits to pay for the defense surge is no long-term solution. “These higher defense expenditures are not temporary,” he warned. The message: the party is ending, and the tab is about to get ugly.
Next door in Latvia, Finance Minister Arvils Aseradens echoed the warning, calling for “every possible instrument” to secure sustainable funding. He even threw support behind Canadian PM Mark Carney’s pet idea of a multilateral defense bank, because nothing says fiscal responsibility like creating yet another supranational borrowing vehicle to paper over the cracks.
Both Baltic states, sitting on the razor’s edge with Moscow, not to mention sharing a border with the Russian bear, have massively ramped up military outlays in recent years. Their spending has exploded even as existing social welfare commitments continue to balloon budgets already teetering under the weight of Europe’s sacred model. Welcome to the European conundrum in 2026: you need guns to deter Russia, but the welfare state can’t be touched, and nobody wants to tell voters the truth about taxes.
The broader picture across the continent is grim. European nations are scrambling to square exploding public debt with an unfunded defense boom while somehow still pretending they can keep the lights on for Ukraine’s war effort. The math simply does not add up.
Estonia’s Debt Trajectory: From Poster Child to Problem Child
Estonia, the euro-area’s former fiscal hawk with just 1.3 million people, now finds itself in the crosshairs. Its debt-to-GDP ratio remains a relatively modest 24%, but that’s changing fast. Public debt is projected to more than double: from €10 billion ($11.8 billion) in 2025 to €21 billion by 2030. The IMF has already raised concerns, and Fitch downgraded the country’s sovereign rating back in 2023 as investors began pricing in geopolitical risk and demanding higher yields.
On Thursday, Estonia’s central bank doubled down on its earlier warnings: act now while you still have the luxury of being one of the EU’s least indebted nations. Because that window is closing fast.
Tallinn’s much-touted “defense tax” introduced in 2024? Already watered down and nowhere near enough to cover the actual sums required.
This is the inevitable endpoint of Europe’s post-2022 panic: politicians who spent decades hollowing out defense budgets in favor of green deals, migration costs, and generous entitlements suddenly discover they need actual military capability. Rather than make hard choices — cut elsewhere, raise taxes transparently, or rethink open-ended commitments — the default instinct is to borrow more and hope the ECB or some new “defense bank” magically makes the numbers work.
Spoiler: it won’t.
The Baltics are simply saying out loud what markets have been whispering for months. Permanent defense hikes require permanent revenue, not more creative accounting and supranational debt vehicles. Europe’s eastern flank is learning the hard way that you cannot deter Russia with PowerPoint slides and growing interest payments.
The real question now isn’t whether Europe will boost defense spending, it will and will then quietly shuffle most of the funds into various green (and not so green) grifts under the guise of an “existential threat.” It’s who ultimately pays – and whether the bond vigilantes will wait patiently for the answer. Given the trajectory, the real question is when does the emperor’s nudity finally get confirmed.
END
UK
SICK!!
UK Nurseries Urged To Report ‘Racist’ Toddlers To Police In £1.3M Scheme
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Childcare workers across Wales are being trained to spot and report “racist incidents” by toddlers under fresh guidance endorsed by government ministers and bankrolled with taxpayer cash.
The push, which includes lessons on “white privilege,” turns playgroups and nurseries into surveillance hubs for the state’s ‘anti-racism’ agenda — even when the alleged offenders are barely out of nappies.
The initiative has received over £1.3 million in taxpayer funding via the Welsh Government.
The guidance comes from Diversity and Anti-Racist Professional Learning (DARPL), based at Cardiff Metropolitan University.
It has been circulated to more than 300 nurseries, playgroups and childminders.
Staff are ludicrously told to assess whether a child’s behaviour could amount to a hate crime and, if so, contact police on 999 or 101.
The document also pushes workers to audit their resources for “diversity,” discuss skin colour and race with very young children, and create “anti-racist” environments from the cradle.
The toolkit explicitly frames even child-to-child incidents in toddlers as potential “racist incidents” requiring formal logging and possible police involvement.
Critics rightly call it Orwellian madness — toddlers lack the cognitive development to hold racist beliefs, yet the state now demands they be policed as miniature thought criminals.
This latest outrage fits a clear and disturbing pattern of UK authorities targeting children with woke, pro-migration and Islam-compliant ideology while stamping down on any pushback.
Here are just some of the recent examples:
Local authorities warned schools that kids’ artwork risked violating Islamic blasphemy rules — a staggering concession to foreign religious law over British freedom of expression.
State schools are feeding children propaganda that frames illegal Channel crossings as something to celebrate rather than challenge.
END
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/USA AND IRAN//THURSDAY NIGHT
US Conducts New Iran Strikes Along Hormuz Corridor, State Media Cites Return Fire On 3 US Destroyers
Thursday, May 07, 2026 – 05:05 PM
Summary
- US military attacks Iran locations on southern coast, and allegations of UAE involvement; Explosions rock Abu Dhabi. CENTCOM says intercepted Iranian counterattacks.
- Iran says US violated ceasefire after Centcom targeted Iranian facilities responsible for attacks; US says ceasefire not violated despite striking Iranian oil tanker and targets in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm.
- The Trump admin mulls restarting operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz with naval and air support as early as this week after Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on US access to their bases and airspaces
- Iran national security commission ‘red line’: No uranium has left the country; The right to enrich uranium, the complete lifting of sanctions, and the release of the country’s assets are non-negotiable red lines.
- French nuclear-powered carrier steams through Suez Canal in support mission as Europe seeks diplomatic influence over Hormuz outcome.
- First Chinese tanker reportedly attacked: shipping industry source told Caixin that this was the first time a Chinese tanker was hit in the three-month-long war, calling it “psychologically very hard to accept.”
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Yes 36% · No 65%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Trump: US Warships Came ‘Under Fire’ By ‘Lunatics’
Iran says US violated ceasefire as explosions are reported in the UAE (via Newsquawk)
IRAN SAYS US VIOLATED CEASEFIRE
Iran’s Top Joint Military Command says:
- The US violated the ceasefire,
- The US targeted an Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz,
- Iran will respond “powerfully and without hesitation.”
US SOURCE SAID CEASEFIRE NOT VIOLATED
- US officials, according to Axios/Fox reporting, say:
- US strikes were carried out in Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas,
- The strikes do not mean the war has restarted,
- The ceasefire is not over.
ATTACKS
- Iranian media and officials also claimed:
- Three American destroyers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz,
- Iranian missile fire forced enemy units to retreat after suffering damage.
These claims are unverified.
- Air defences were activated multiple times around:
- Tehran
- Bandar Abbas
- Qeshm
REGIONAL TARGETS
- Iran is accusing the US and “some regional nations” of striking targets in the Strait of Hormuz area.
- Iranian media outlets reported explosions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai:
- ISNA: explosions heard in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
- IRIB/Fars: explosions heard in Abu Dhabi.
- There is no confirmation yet on cause, damage, or responsibility.
Oil jumps on the developments:
CENTCOM Forces Intercept Iran Counterstrikes
CENTCOM confirms attack on Iran, and intercept of Iranian retaliation effort: “U.S. forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes as U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, May 7.
Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as USS Truxtun (DDG 103), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), and USS Mason (DDG 87) transited the international sea passage. No U.S. assets were struck.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes. CENTCOM does not seek escalation but remains positioned and ready to protect American forces.”
Confirmation of New US Military Attack
Fox News confirming a nighttime US miliary attack on Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, however, with US officials seeking to downplay that this marks a restart of the war and bombing campaign. This comes via Fox chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin:
A senior US official tells me that it was a US military strike on Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas moments ago but added this is NOT a restarting of the war or end to the ceasefire.
The strike on one of Iran’s oil ports comes two days after Iran fired 15 ballistic and cruise missiles at UAE Fujairah Port, eliciting anger from Gulf countries after top Pentagon leaders said Tuesday that the Iranian strikes did not rise to the level of breaking the ceasefire, calling it low level attacks that didn’t rise to that level.
There have been allegations of UAE involvement. Since the initial explosions, more follow up blasts have been reported via state media, along with some emerging images:
- US CONDUCTED STRIKES THURS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AREA: AXIOS
- IRAN CLAIMS IT FIRED MISSILES AT THREE US DESTORYERS: TASNIM
Further emerging images:
Iranian military statement: “Criminal and aggressive America and its supporting countries should know, Iran will respond decisively to any aggression.”
Explosions, Possible Hostile Action Reported on Coast
During the night hours in Iran, state media has been issuing contradictory reports of mystery explosions along the Hormuz corridor. It’s as yet unclear what’s happening, but reports say a pier was struck near Bandar Abbas, with other southern areas witnessing possible drone activity, and return anti-air fire. There’s little that’s confirmable at this early point. Via DropSite:
- Iran’s IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency reports that some Iranian sources are alleging “hostile action” by the UAE at Bahman Qeshm Dock near Bandar Abbas, though no official confirmation has been issued.
- Some reports claimed air defenses responded to two drones after multiple explosions were heard in the Bandar Abbas area.
- Other sources alleged the UAE, described by Tasnim as acting “as a tool of the Zionist regime,” was behind the incident at the dock.
- Tasnim emphasized the claims remain unconfirmed
- Iran’s Mehr says air defenses shot down two ‘hostile’ drones over Bandar Abbas and Qeshm.
Possible US military raid incident?…
END
SAME STORY// JERUSALEM POST
US carries out strikes on Iran, Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for Tehran targeting US destroyers
Iranian media claimed that the US carried out “hostile action,” while a Fox News reporter said on X/Twitter that the US carried out strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, citing a senior US official.
A satellite image shows a fleet of small boats at sea, north of the Strait of Hormuz near the Kargan coast, Iran, April 22, 2026.(photo credit: EUROPEAN UNION/COPERNICUS SENTINEL-2/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)ByJAMES GENN, JERUSALEM POST STAFF, REUTERSMAY 7, 2026 22:55Updated: MAY 8, 2026 03:58
The US carried out retaliatory strikes on Iranian military facilities, US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed on Thursday night.
“US forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes as US Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman,” CENTCOM wrote.
“Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones, and small boats, as USS Truxtun (DDG 103), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), and USS Mason (DDG 87) transited the international sea passage,” CENTCOM said, adding that “No US assets were struck.”
CENTCOM “eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking US forces, including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance nodes,” they added.
US President Donald Trump commented on the incident in a post on Truth Social on Thursday.
“Three World Class American Destroyers just transited, very successfully, out of the Strait of Hormuz, under fire. There was no damage done to the three Destroyers, but great damage done to the Iranian attackers,” Trump wrote.
“They were completely destroyed along with numerous small boats, which are being used to take the place of their fully decapitated Navy. These boats went to the bottom of the Sea, quickly and efficiently. Missiles were shot at our Destroyers, and were easily knocked down. Likewise, drones came, and were incinerated while in the air. They dropped ever so beautifully down to the Ocean, very much like a butterfly dropping to its grave!” he continued.
“A normal Country would have allowed these Destroyers to pass, but Iran is not a normal Country. They are led by LUNATICS, and if they had the chance to use a Nuclear Weapon, they would do it, without question — But they’ll never have that opportunity and, just like we knocked them out again today, we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!” he added.
“Our three Destroyers, with their wonderful Crews, will now rejoin our Naval Blockade, which is truly a ‘Wall of Steel.'” he concluded.
Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House later on Thursday, said that “The plan is very simple. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”
UAE may have been involved in striking Iran, Iranian media says
However, explosions heard near Bandar Abbas and the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday night may have been caused by hostile action from the UAE, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Tasnim media outlet reported.
Unnamed sources also told Tasnim that the explosions were related to a confrontation with two small aircraft.
Tasmin emphasized that the incident has not yet been officially confirmed, adding that if it is, “the UAE will pay the cost of its hostile action.”
A Fox News reporter said in a post on X/Twitter that the US was responsible for carrying out the strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, citing a senior US official.
The Iranian military’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters stated that the US carried out the operations “in cooperation with countries in the region.” Iranian forces “immediately retaliated,” and “caused significant damage” to US military vessels east of the Strait, the military claimed.
Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported that defenses shot down “two hostile drones” over the port city of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz.
US military naval units came under missile fire after US attack on Iranian oil tanker, Tehran’s state media says
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that three American Navy Destroyers were targeted in the Strait by Iranian naval forces.
“The destroyers of the US terror force are fleeing towards the Sea of Oman,” the outlet wrote, adding that the claimed attack was carried out by using “missiles and suicide drones.”
It was unclear when the incident happened.
The alleged incident was claimed following an attack by the US military on an Iranian oil tanker.
The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but on Wednesday, the US military said it had disabled an Iranian-flagged oil tanker that was trying to sail towards an Iranian port.
The US military said that US forces hit the tanker’s rudder with a F-18 fighter jet.
END
FRIDAY MORNING/IRAN VS USA
US Conducts New Iran Strikes Along Hormuz Corridor – Trump Says Warships Came Under Fire By ‘Lunatics’
Thursday, May 07, 2026 – 05:30 PM
Summary
- US military attacks Iran locations on southern coast, and allegations of UAE involvement; Explosions rock Abu Dhabi. CENTCOM says intercepted Iranian counterattacks.
- Iran says US violated ceasefire after Centcom targeted Iranian facilities responsible for attacks; US says ceasefire not violated despite striking Iranian oil tanker and targets in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm.
- The Trump admin mulls restarting operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz with naval and air support as early as this week after Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on US access to their bases and airspaces
- Iran national security commission ‘red line’: No uranium has left the country; The right to enrich uranium, the complete lifting of sanctions, and the release of the country’s assets are non-negotiable red lines.
- French nuclear-powered carrier steams through Suez Canal in support mission as Europe seeks diplomatic influence over Hormuz outcome.
- First Chinese tanker reportedly attacked: shipping industry source told Caixin that this was the first time a Chinese tanker was hit in the three-month-long war, calling it “psychologically very hard to accept.”
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Yes 36% · No 65%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Trump: US Warships Came ‘Under Fire’ By ‘Lunatics’
Iran says US violated ceasefire as explosions are reported in the UAE (via Newsquawk)
IRAN SAYS US VIOLATED CEASEFIRE
Iran’s Top Joint Military Command says:
- The US violated the ceasefire,
- The US targeted an Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz,
- Iran will respond “powerfully and without hesitation.”
US SOURCE SAID CEASEFIRE NOT VIOLATED
- US officials, according to Axios/Fox reporting, say:
- US strikes were carried out in Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas,
- The strikes do not mean the war has restarted,
- The ceasefire is not over.
ATTACKS
- Iranian media and officials also claimed:
- Three American destroyers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz,
- Iranian missile fire forced enemy units to retreat after suffering damage.
These claims are unverified.
- Air defences were activated multiple times around:
- Tehran
- Bandar Abbas
- Qeshm
REGIONAL TARGETS
- Iran is accusing the US and “some regional nations” of striking targets in the Strait of Hormuz area.
- Iranian media outlets reported explosions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai:
- ISNA: explosions heard in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
- IRIB/Fars: explosions heard in Abu Dhabi.
- There is no confirmation yet on cause, damage, or responsibility.
Oil jumps on the developments:
CENTCOM Forces Intercept Iran Counterstrikes
CENTCOM confirms attack on Iran, and intercept of Iranian retaliation effort: “U.S. forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes as U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, May 7.
Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as USS Truxtun (DDG 103), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), and USS Mason (DDG 87) transited the international sea passage. No U.S. assets were struck.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes. CENTCOM does not seek escalation but remains positioned and ready to protect American forces.”
Confirmation of New US Military Attack
Fox News confirming a nighttime US miliary attack on Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, however, with US officials seeking to downplay that this marks a restart of the war and bombing campaign. This comes via Fox chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin:
A senior US official tells me that it was a US military strike on Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas moments ago but added this is NOT a restarting of the war or end to the ceasefire.
The strike on one of Iran’s oil ports comes two days after Iran fired 15 ballistic and cruise missiles at UAE Fujairah Port, eliciting anger from Gulf countries after top Pentagon leaders said Tuesday that the Iranian strikes did not rise to the level of breaking the ceasefire, calling it low level attacks that didn’t rise to that level.
There have been allegations of UAE involvement. Since the initial explosions, more follow up blasts have been reported via state media, along with some emerging images:
- US CONDUCTED STRIKES THURS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AREA: AXIOS
- IRAN CLAIMS IT FIRED MISSILES AT THREE US DESTORYERS: TASNIM
END
LATER THIS MORNING;
Iranian Army Commandos Seize Oil Tanker Over Export Disruption Claims
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 07:20 AM
The semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Iran has seized an oil tanker, accusing it of “attempting to disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation.”
Tasnim did not elaborate on the seizure, but Iran’s official state news agency, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), stated that the Iranian military directed the tanker to Iran’s southern coast. The report noted that the tanker was carrying Iranian crude oil.
“Army commandos seized this violating oil tanker carrying a cargo of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s oil, which was trying to harm and disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation by exploiting regional conditions,” IRNA stated.
Earlier, US forces struck Iranian missile and drone launch sites and other military assets after CENTCOM reported that Iranian forces launched a missile and a one-way attack drone barrage at three US warships transiting the Homruz chokepoint. No US warships were hit.
Press TV reported overnight that Tehran said US forces targeted two of its oil tankers in the Hormuz area. The outlet also said the US hit civilian areas along its southern coast and on Qeshm Island “with the cooperation of some regional countries.”
The United Arab Emirates, which has been hit hard by Iran’s retaliatory strikes, said earlier that its air defenses were intercepting missiles and drones targeting the country.
President Trump stated overnight that the month-long ceasefire remains in effect, but warned Tehran that future airstrikes would be harder and more violent if it does not quickly accept a peace deal to end the war and reopen the Hormuz chokepoint.
Polymarket:https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Yes 28% · No 73%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Overnight geopolitical wrap:
UBS analyst Dominic Ellis provided a summary of the UBS Energy Research team’s call with Amena Bakr, head of Kpler’s Middle East and OPEC+ Research, about the UAE and OPEC:
While the UAE’s exit from OPEC erodes the group’s ability to control the oil price in the longer term (UAE is around 30% of spare capacity), there is limited risk of the group splintering, according to an expert speaking to UBS. The speaker said the Iran conflict is likely to lead to significant investment in new pipeline (and perhaps export) capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but it will take 2-3 years at least for meaningful developments. The ability to return production to pre-war levels varies significantly: Saudi Arabia and the UAE can get there within weeks, but Iraq and Kuwait might take up to 6 months given the less orderly shutdown processes they were forced into by the conflict. The speaker estimates that the UAE has capacity close to 5mb/d, versus the current 2.1mb/d, but will likely ramp up only gradually to avoid a price war with Saudi.
In markets, Brent crude futures are trading around $100 a barrel, while WTI futures are trading around $94 a barrel.
*Developing…
end
late Friday morning:
US Conducts New Iran Strikes Along Hormuz Corridor – Trump Says Warships Came Under Fire By ‘Lunatics’
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 07:00 AM
Summary
- US military attacks Iran locations on southern coast, and allegations of UAE involvement; Explosions rock Abu Dhabi. CENTCOM says intercepted Iranian counterattacks.
- Iran says US violated ceasefire after Centcom targeted Iranian facilities responsible for attacks; US says ceasefire not violated despite striking Iranian oil tanker and targets in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm.
- The Trump admin mulls restarting operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz with naval and air support as early as this week after Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on US access to their bases and airspaces
- Iran national security commission ‘red line’: No uranium has left the country; The right to enrich uranium, the complete lifting of sanctions, and the release of the country’s assets are non-negotiable red lines.
- French nuclear-powered carrier steams through Suez Canal in support mission as Europe seeks diplomatic influence over Hormuz outcome.
- First Chinese tanker reportedly attacked: shipping industry source told Caixin that this was the first time a Chinese tanker was hit in the three-month-long war, calling it “psychologically very hard to accept.”
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Yes 36% · No 65%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Trump: US Warships Came ‘Under Fire’ By ‘Lunatics’
Iran says US violated ceasefire as explosions are reported in the UAE (via Newsquawk)
IRAN SAYS US VIOLATED CEASEFIRE
Iran’s Top Joint Military Command says:
- The US violated the ceasefire,
- The US targeted an Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz,
- Iran will respond “powerfully and without hesitation.”
US SOURCE SAID CEASEFIRE NOT VIOLATED
- US officials, according to Axios/Fox reporting, say:
- US strikes were carried out in Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas,
- The strikes do not mean the war has restarted,
- The ceasefire is not over.
ATTACKS
- Iranian media and officials also claimed:
- Three American destroyers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz,
- Iranian missile fire forced enemy units to retreat after suffering damage.
These claims are unverified.
- Air defences were activated multiple times around:
- Tehran
- Bandar Abbas
- Qeshm
REGIONAL TARGETS
- Iran is accusing the US and “some regional nations” of striking targets in the Strait of Hormuz area.
- Iranian media outlets reported explosions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai:
- ISNA: explosions heard in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
- IRIB/Fars: explosions heard in Abu Dhabi.
- There is no confirmation yet on cause, damage, or responsibility.
Oil jumps on the developments:
CENTCOM Forces Intercept Iran Counterstrikes
CENTCOM confirms attack on Iran, and intercept of Iranian retaliation effort: “U.S. forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes as U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, May 7.
Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as USS Truxtun (DDG 103), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), and USS Mason (DDG 87) transited the international sea passage. No U.S. assets were struck.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes. CENTCOM does not seek escalation but remains positioned and ready to protect American forces.”
Confirmation of New US Military Attack
Fox News confirming a nighttime US miliary attack on Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, however, with US officials seeking to downplay that this marks a restart of the war and bombing campaign. This comes via Fox chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin:
A senior US official tells me that it was a US military strike on Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas moments ago but added this is NOT a restarting of the war or end to the ceasefire.
The strike on one of Iran’s oil ports comes two days after Iran fired 15 ballistic and cruise missiles at UAE Fujairah Port, eliciting anger from Gulf countries after top Pentagon leaders said Tuesday that the Iranian strikes did not rise to the level of breaking the ceasefire, calling it low level attacks that didn’t rise to that level.
There have been allegations of UAE involvement. Since the initial explosions, more follow up blasts have been reported via state media, along with some emerging images:
IRAN CLAIMS IT FIRED MISSILES AT THREE US DESTORYERS: TASNIM
US CONDUCTED STRIKES THURS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AREA: AXIOS
END
LATE FRIDAY MORNING
‘Sporadic Clashes’ Ongoing In Strait Of Hormuz After US Attacks, Disables Two Iran Vessels Trying To Breach Blockade
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 10:40 AM
Summary
- Sporadic clashes between Iranian Armed Forces and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, few details given.
- Two more empty Iranian-flagged tankers come under US aerial attack for attempting to breach blockade.
- Iran says US violated ceasefire after last night’s US action, which resulted in Iranian military deaths & injures. However, Tehran still reviewing US peace proposal.
- Tasnim news agency: Iran has seized an oil tanker, accusing it of “attempting to disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation.”
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026-961-587&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Yes 74% · No 27%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Ongoing Sporadic Clashes in Strait: Iran Media
Iran’s Fars reports late morning (US time): Sporadic clashes between Iranian Armed Forces and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Amid the fog of war, nothing in the way of details initially emerged.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei has condemned US “aggression and adventurism” but has also confirmed that Tehran is still reviewing the US proposal and is still going to respond soon. Al Jazeera cites state media on emerging deaths from the Iranian side:
Mohammad Radmehr, governor of Minab County in southern Iran, says he has received word that rescuers have found the body of one of five sailors reported missing after a US attack on an Iranian vessel overnight in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Mehr news agency quoted Radmehr as saying that search teams are continuing efforts to find the four remaining missing sailors. Earlier, as we reported, Radmehr said 10 sailors were also injured during the naval confrontation.
Details of Fresh US Airstrikes on Tankers
The Wall Street Journal has details after two Iranian-flagged tankers came under US attack for attempting to breach the US blockade:
U.S. military forces carried out airstrikes on Friday, hitting and disabling two empty Iranian-flagged oil tankers attempting to circumvent the American naval blockade against Iranian ports, according to U.S. Central Command
The vessels struck were very large crude carriers attempting to return to an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman, the M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda, according to a statement from Centcom.
A U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet jet fighter from the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush fired precision munitions into their smokestacks, disabling the tankers, Centcom said.
It marks third time the US has attacked commercial vessels for trying to break through to Iranian ports, following a Wednesday incident which saw a US Navy jet destroy rudder of an Iranian tanker under similar circumstances.
Iran: Last Night’s US Action ‘Gross Violation of Ceasefire’
Iran’s stance is that the overnight US attacks on coastal sites near Hormuz marks a breach and collapse of the ceasefire, even as President Trump maintains that it was not, only calling it a “love tap”. Still, Iran’s Foreign Minister has clarified that Iran’s response to the US plan to end the war is under review – and so efforts to get back to the table have not been totally abandoned.
The IRGC Navy on Friday is warning vessels to stay away from US warships in the Strait of Hormuz, amid concerns a return to full war could be imminent. Earlier Friday explosions were heard in Iran’s Sirik city near the Strait of Hormuz – though the cause has not been given. This as the US military has confirmed additional airstrikes on empty tankers attempting to break the US naval blockade while en route to Iranian ports, per Fox News.
ROBERT H.
Jennifer Griffin on X: “NEW: US military just carried out strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Port and Bandar Abbas: Senior US official tells me, but this is NOT a restarting of the war. MORE” / X
And yes there is a ceasefire and a deal in making, or is this theatre for now while each side postures? Trump goes to China soon and likely a deal really is being sought. Whether there is one that is acceptable is anyone’s guess.
Now that the UAE and Iran are declared enemies who knows what happens?
What is clear is that regular supply of crude and LNG is still a way off. Meanwhile global supplies will continue to be used up faster than any resupply can occur.
https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/2052487874352660530
ISRAEL /USA AND IRAN
ISRAEL TBN
HEZBOLLAH
HAMAS/TURKEY
Hamas operatives are being trained in Turkey to launch attacks against Israel – KAN
The operatives, who wear civilian clothing, regularly participate in training sessions on the use of small arms and tactics at public shooting clubs, as well as training in drone operations.
Thousands of people demonstrating solidarity with the Palestinian people amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, at the Galata Bridge in Istanbul on January 1, 2026; illustrative.(photo credit: YASIN AKGUL/AFP via Getty Images)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 8, 2026 02:35
Hamas terrorists have been conducting training in areas of Turkey, Israel’s public broadcaster KAN News reported on Thursday.
The operatives, who wear civilian clothing, regularly participate in training sessions on the use of small arms and tactics at public shooting clubs, as well as training in drone operations. They have even received official licenses to fly drones in Turkey, the report said.
The goal is reportedly to complete their training before transferring them to Lebanon, Jordan, and the West Bank in order to carry out attacks in future conflicts with Israel.
This is by no means the first instance of coordination between Turkey and Hamas.
Israel clamps down on Iran-backed Hamas money-laundering network in Turkey
Last December, the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) exposed an Iranian-sponsored money laundering network run by Hamas in Turkey.
According to an IDF statement, documents from the organization indicated that Hamas operates a network of money exchange involving Gazans located in Turkey, utilizing the country’s financial institutions for terroristic purposes.
These Gazans, who manage to transfer hundreds of millions of dollars, are reportedly directly connected to Iran and to senior members of the Islamic regime.
According to the IDF’s statement, the launderers also conduct extensive economic activity in Turkey – involving the transfer of funds from Iran to Hamas.
END
IRAN/USA
Iran can last for months under US Strait of Hormuz blockade, US officials say – report
“The leadership has gotten more radical, determined, and increasingly confident they can outlast US political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance,” one US official said.
A map showing the Strait of Hormuz is seen in this illustration taken June 22, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/DADO RUVIC/ILLUSTRATION/FILE PHOTO)ByTZVI JASPERMAY 7, 2026 21:37
Iran can economically survive the US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz for at least three to four more months, four people familiar with a confidential CIA analysis told The Washington Post on Thursday.
“The leadership has gotten more radical, determined, and increasingly confident they can outlast US political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance,” one US official told the Post. “Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”
Iran is adapting to the blockade by various methods, one official said. Some of its strategies include storing its oil on tanker ships that would otherwise be empty and reducing production in its oil fields. Iran’s economy is “nowhere near as dire as some have claimed,” the official said.
Another strategy Iran may be employing is to transport some of its oil overland, one official said. “There’s a belief they could begin moving some oil via rail through Central Asia,” the official explained, which could provide it with an economic buffer.
Another senior US intelligence official, on the other hand, said that the blockade is inflicting “real, compounding damage – severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse.”
“Iran’s military has been badly degraded, its navy destroyed, and its leaders are in hiding,” the official added. “What’s left is the regime’s appetite for civilian suffering – starving its own people to prolong a war it has already lost.”
Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, told the Post that Iran is losing half a billion dollars per day thanks to the US blockade.
“The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable,” she stated, “and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.”
Iran maintains ballistic missile capabilities
Sources also told the Post that the CIA analysis found that Iran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities.
One US official stated that, since the start of the war, the Iranian regime has been able to recover underground storage facilities, repair damaged missiles, and assemble some new missiles. All in all, the official said, Iran retains around 75% of its pre-war mobile launcher inventory and 70% of its missile stockpile.
The larger issue regarding Iranian weapons and the Strait of Hormuz, however, is their drone production capabilities.
According to Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, “All it takes is one drone to hit a ship and no one will give insurance.”
These drones can be manufactured in small, easily concealed facilities, a US official informed the Post.
Citrinowicz also said that the main problem is that Iran doesn’t think it needs to capitulate, even if the blockade persists for several months.
END
CIA Leak: Iran Can Survive Blockade Another 3 to 4 Months, Maybe Longer
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 11:40 AM
Belying the Trump administration’s claims that a US blockade on Iran’s use of the Strait of Hormuz has the country on the ropes and its oil infrastructure in near-term peril, a confidential CIA analysis says Iran can persevere another three or four months, if not longer. In a second stark contradiction of White House narratives, US intelligence assesses that the bulk of Iran’s pre-war missile inventory is still intact. The substance of the CIA analysis was first reported by the Washington Post, which attributed the insights to three current officials and one former one who’ve seen it.
Over recent weeks, a particular narrative about the blockade has been gaining traction — namely, that Iran’s inability to freely export oil is putting its energy infrastructure in imminent danger of “shut-in” damage that would commence after Iran’s capacity to store oil ran out. We were among the earliest to start focusing on that critical dimension of the conflict, and the shut-in-crisis scenario gained credibility on Wednesday when an oil-sector expert who serves on Iran’s Chamber of Commerce candidly told the New York Times that “the sea blockade is a much more serious threat than even war, and the current stalemate must be broken because the export of our oil and energy and the fate of our refineries is now at risk.”
However, the officials who are familiar with the new CIA analysis told the Post that Iran is using various avenues to maximize storage and forestall shut-in damage, from storing oil on empty tankers to reducing the flow from wells. Summing up the oil infrastructure risks and broader economic impacts, one of them said, “It’s nowhere near as dire as some have claimed.” One of the officials said the CIA estimate of three or four months of runway may even be underselling Iran’s endurance, pointing to the potential for increasing exports via overland routes. “There’s a belief they could begin moving some oil via rail through Central Asia,” said an official.
Meanwhile, the CIA has concluded that Iran’s military is in far better shape than what Trump, Defense secretary Pete Hegseth and others have told the American people. On Wednesday, Trump claimed that Iran’s missile inventory was a small shadow of what it was before the country was attacked by Israel and the United States:
The confidential CIA analysis, however, allegedly paints an entirely different picture:
Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began. — Washington Post
Iran is likely in even better shape where drones are concerned, given their lower cost and the ease with which they can be assembled in small facilities. That points to Iran’s ability to continue thwarting commerce out of the Persian Gulf. “All it takes is one drone to hit a ship and no one will give insurance” for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, told the Post.
Some observers view this and other leaks as an attempt by Trump administration subordinates to steer America away from re-escalation of a war initiated by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28. “The latest leak from US military and intelligence institutions rebuts the Fox News crowd and shows an American military and intelligence establishment desperate to prevent an American return to war against Iran,” wrote Matthew Hoh, a senior fellow at the Eisenhower Media Network, an organization comprising former military service members, intelligence community alumni and diplomats. “I have never seen such a deliberate and coordinated effort by CIA, Pentagon and others to keep the US out of war in defiance of their political bosses.”
Asked for comment on the officials’ leaks, a White House spokeswoman reiterated the administration’s triumphalist rhetoric. “During Operation Epic Fury, Iran was crushed militarily. Now, they are being strangled economically,” said Anna Kelly. “The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable, and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.”
Alongside the question of how long Iran can endure the status quo, the same question must be asked about not only the United States, but — staring down a years-long economic catastrophe — the entire world.
IRAQ/IRAN/USA
US targets Iraq oil official and militias with sanctions for aiding Iran
The U.S. imposed sanctions on Thursday on Iraq’s deputy oil minister and militias over support for Iran, the Treasury Department said.
Drone view of oil tanker HELGA berthed at one of Iraq’s southern offshore oil terminals near Basra as it prepares to load crude oil, becoming the second vessel to arrive since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, April 24, 2026.(photo credit: REUTERS/Mohammed Aty)ByREUTERSMAY 8, 2026 01:15
The Treasury Department accused Iraq’s deputy minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly of abusing “his position to facilitate the diversion of oil to be sold for the benefit of the Iranian regime and its proxy militias in Iraq.”
It said Maarij enabled an Iran-affiliated oil smuggler to mix Iranian oil with Iraqi oil before being shipped to global markets and falsified documents that helped Iranian-affiliated networks to sell the mix disguised as purely Iraqi oil.
It said Maarij authorized trucking several million dollars’ worth of oil per day from Iraq’s Qayyarah oil field for export, helping Iranian networks.
Iraq’s oil ministry denied the accusations and said it was ready to cooperate and conduct any fair investigation regarding the claims raised. It said that crude oil export operations, marketing, tanker loading, and related procedures are not among Maarij’s responsibilities.
The deputy minister did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Treasury will not stand idly by as Iran’s military exploits Iraqi oil
In March, Iraq’s oil minister, Hayan Abdel-Ghani, said Iranian oil tankers stopped by US forces in the Gulf were using forged Iraqi documents. Tehran denied using such documents.
The move to sanction the deputy minister comes as the US and Iran edge toward a temporary agreement to halt the war, with Tehran reviewing a proposal that would stop the fighting but leave the most contentious issues unresolved.
The US Treasury is also sanctioning three senior leaders of Iran-aligned militias Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, it said.
“Treasury will not stand idly by as Iran’s military exploits Iraqi oil to fund terrorism against the United States and our partners,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.
The sanctions freeze any US assets of those targeted and generally bar Americans from dealing with them
END
they are driving the Russians crazy!!
(zerohedge)
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE.
Ukrainian Drone Strike Paralyzes Airports Across All Southern Russia
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 09:20 AM
Russian cities and communities are busy preparing Victory Day WW2 memorial events all across the country ahead of Saturday, and so security is already on edge and on high alert, especially in the Moscow area, given that Ukraine’s devastating cross-border drone attacks have persisted and expanded of late.
On Friday air traffic at 13 airports across southern Russia was suspended after drones struck a building at a regional air navigation center in Rostov-on-Don, Russia’s transport ministry confirmed. This was the crucial air traffic control center for the whole region, and so its being taken offline has had significant impact.
Regional media has listed that it halted flights to and from airports in Astrakhan, Vladikavkaz, Volgograd, Gelendzhik, Grozny, Krasnodar, Makhachkala, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Sochi, Stavropol and Elista.
“The regional air traffic control center in Rostov-on-Don, which manages air traffic in southern Russia, has been temporarily adjusted due to the Ukrainian drone strike … personnel are safe, and equipment is being assessed” to determine whether operations can be restored, the ministry said on Telegram.
According to the Amsterdam-based Moscow Times, “Aeroflot, Pobeda, Nordwind and Rossiya Airlines said they were adjusting their flight schedules for Friday and would need to cancel some flights. At least 14,000 passengers were stuck due to delays and cancellations, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia said.”
“Russia’s Transportation Minister Andrey Nikitin asked major airlines to coordinate with the state-owned Russian Railways and the Unified Transportation Directorate to arrange for trains and buses to transfer passengers from canceled flights,” the report noted.
On the same day, over 260 drones were intercepted across various sectors of the country – which suggests that in total at least several hundreds were sent. Once again, some of them reached as far away as the Perm region in the Ural Mountains.
The drone waves have continued despite that Russia unilaterally announced a ceasefire corresponding with V-Day events commemorating victory over Germany in WW2. The ceasefire runs May 8-10; however, Ukraine has not acknowledged this.
Still, the Defense Ministry is acting as if it is on and it is official, having announced in a statement Friday morning that it has observed 1,365 violations by Ukraine since midnight.
✈️ A couple of drones paralyzed Russian aviation — airports are collapsing again
UAVs struck the building of the “Air Navigation of Southern Russia” branch in Rostov-on-Don. Operations at 13 airports have now been suspended.
Aeroflot is massively cancelling and delaying… pic.twitter.com/9A3B8XowAX— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 8, 2026
The Kremlin is putting the Ukrainian capital on notice, telling foreign diplomats to evacuate in the instance that Ukraine’s military tries to disrupt Saturday celebrations in Moscow and Red Square.
Russian leaders have wared Kiev will get pummeled in an unprecedented bombing if President Zelensky orders any drone attacks on Moscow. He had actually appeared to threaten precisely these events during remarks earlier in the week.
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
never ever take a new Moderna vaccine on Hantavirus; it takes 10 years to provide enough safety to take this
(zerohedge)
Vaccine Trade Returns? Moderna Working On Hantavirus Shot Sends Shares Higher
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 01:05 PM
Moderna is out with timely news that it is working on early-stage research on vaccines targeting hantaviruses. The news comes as a Spanish woman has been hospitalized for a suspected infection, while a hantavirus cluster has ravaged a Dutch-flagged cruise ship, with five confirmed and three suspected cases of hantavirus. Three deaths have been reported so far.
Bloomberg reports that Moderna is collaborating with the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases on hantavirus vaccine research and is also working with Korea University College of Medicine’s Vaccine Innovation Center on a potential vaccine.
“These efforts are early-stage and ongoing and reflect Moderna’s broader responsibility to develop countermeasures against emerging infectious diseases,” Moderna said.
Moderna said its work on hantavirus vaccines began before the cruise ship Hondius reported an outbreak while anchored off the coast of Cape Verde, on the west coast of Africa, last week.
Anais Legand, a technical officer at the World Health Organization (WHO), provided an update earlier today stating that all remaining passengers on the Hondius have left the ship without symptoms.
“They will be asked to take their temperature every single day for 42 days. They will be asked to check every day for other symptoms like feeling unwell or a headache,” Legand said, adding, “They will be provided with someone to contact. If they’re not feeling well, it’s up to the national authorities where people will go next.”
WHO Emergencies Communications Lead Nyka Alexander stated in a livestreamed update earlier that “the risk to the public remains low.”
hares had already been rising after the company reported that its mRNA flu vaccine outperformed in a late-stage study, likely driving early market activity. Shares are up 18%.
President Trump told an ABC News reporter on Thursday that “It’s very much, we hope, under control.”
Polymarket:https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026&height=300
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Yes 9% · No 91%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
It is only a matter of time before other struggling biotech companies announce that they, too, are developing vaccines to prevent the next potential pandemic. This follows the Covid playbook.
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS COMMENTARIES
“Damage Done Already” – Oil May Take Year To Normalize: Adam Parker
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 12:20 PM
Last night’s ZeroHedge debate featured the cautiously bullish Adam Parker, former Morgan Stanley chief equity strategist who now runs Trivariate, and bearish money manager Michael Pento, hosted by Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money.
While Parker is largely optimistic about equities, he put forth a gloomy prediction on gas prices, based on what he is hearing as a consensus on Wall Street. Namely that prices will remain high for at least a year even if Hormuz were to open today.
His full comments below and highlights from last night’s debate. Check out the full discussion to hear how both Pento and Parker are positioned going into year-end:
Best case: More pain at the pump
Parker warned that oil markets may remain structurally elevated even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, arguing that current pricing still underestimates how long normalization could take.
“The consensus view is it takes much longer to normalize than what’s in the 12-month forward Brent,” Parker said, noting that forward oil pricing in the high-$70 range likely needs to be revised upward.
“Even if we’ve really truly reached some agreement now, it’ll take several months to get back toward where we were already, maybe a year.”
Parker added that economic damage from the energy spike has likely already occurred, particularly for consumer-facing sectors.
“There’s damage done already to consumer discretionary and staples earnings.”
He argued the bigger debate now is whether equity markets continue looking through the near-term pressure on the assumption conditions eventually improve.
If Hormuz doesn’t open…
Renewed hot Middle East conflict and continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz would quickly mean severe inflation and a likely recession, according to Pento. In other words: stagflation.
“Prolonged conflagration in the Middle East? Well, first of all, that would send CPI up even higher. And that would send interest rates up even higher,” Pento said, warning that much of recent GDP growth has been debt-funded rather than organic cash flow.
“Interest rates are going to go much higher as they follow inflation higher. That could put the kibosh on all this borrowing.”
Pento argued that if oil prices hit $150 per barrel, things go South quickly.
“If oil goes to 150 and stays there or thereabouts, you’ll see stocks drop and you’ll see home prices drop. And that really torpedoes the top 20% purchasing power.”
He added that recession odds rise significantly if oil remains above $100 to $120 “for any kind of duration, a couple of months,” calling it “a big problem for the stock market.”
Meanwhile trading the day-to-day is impossible because “you can get a tweet from Trump telling everybody that things are going great now and we’re about to sign a deal. And then the next thing you know, you turn around, you go to the bathroom, you come back and bombs are being lobbed at ships. It’s that stochastic.”
Watch the full debate below or listen on Spotify.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
/YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1758 UP 0.0028
USA/ YEN 156.71 DOWN 0.142 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3602 UP 0.0047 OR 47 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3655 DOWN 0.0006 CDN DOLLAR UP 6 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 0.14 PTS OR 0.00%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 213.78 PTS OR 0.80%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.15%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 213.78 PTS OR 0.80%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.14 PTS OR 0.00%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.15%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 99.34 PTS OR 0.16%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4718.00
silver:$80.26
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 45.37 PLUS 11 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 74.37 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 25 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9080 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.572 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.524 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.177 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY MORNING: 97.90 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.361% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.478% DOWN 1 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.729 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.416 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.734 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.001 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1740 UP 0.0047 OR 47 basis points
USA/Japan: 156.57 DOWN 0.272 OR YEN IS UP 27 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.885 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.543DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 26 BASIS pts to 1.3686
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP TO 6.8009// ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH DOWN TO 6.8075
TURKISH LIRA: 45.37 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.360.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.960 DOWN 1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.891 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4729.10
SILVER AT 10;00: 81.38
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 43.88 PTS OR 0.43%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 304.98 OR 1.32%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 89.91 PTS PTS OR 1,09%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 171.50 PTS OR 0.95%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 1.47 PTS OR 0.00%
WTI Oil price 94.97 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 100.43 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 74.46 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 18 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.470 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.112 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1781 UP 0.0051 OR 51 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3628 UP 0.0070 OR 70 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.919 DOWN 5 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.584 DOWN 7 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.471 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.712 DOWN 1 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.69 DOWN 0.153 OR YEN UP 15 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3676 UP 0.0016 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 16 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 95.38
Brent OIL: 101.11
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.368
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 2 PTS to 4.949%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.897 DOWN 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.479 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.122 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97,76 DOWN 19 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.35 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 74.40 UP 0 AND 25/100 roubles //
GOLD $4723.45 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 80.43 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 13.76 OR 0.028%
NASDAQ 100 UP 664.18 PTS OR 2.33%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.13 UP 0.05 PTS OR .29%
GLD: $ 432.86 UP 2.18 PTS OR 0.51%
SLV/ $7.303PTS UP 1.43 OR OR 2.00%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 221.14 PTS OR 0.65%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Peace-Hope & AI-Hype Sink Crude & The Dollar, Lift Gold & Stocks On The Week
WRAP UP:
Stocks surge to end the week, driven by Tech, as Iran response is awaited – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 04:05 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude up, Dollar down, Gold up.
- REAR VIEW: NFP tops expectation, with u/e rate unchanged; US military carries out strikes in Iran, but does not seek escalation; Iran Navy seized the tanker Ocean Koi in a special operation; UoM Consumer Sentiment ticks lower in May; AAPL and INTC reach preliminary chip-making agreement; APO and BX reportedly weigh $35B financing for AVGO; Canada employment growth turns negative, u/e rate moves higher.
- COMING UP: Data: Chinese Inflation (Apr), Norwegian Inflation (Apr), US Existing Home Sales. Events: BoC Market Participants Survey. Supply: US. Earnings: Hims & Hers, Constellation Energy, Circle Internet, Hannover Re, Gea Group.
- WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US Inflation and Retail Sales, Chinese inflation, BoJ SOO and Trump-Xi meeting. Click here for the full report.
- WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Earnings subside as highlights include CSCO, BABA, AMAT. Click here for the full report.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
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MARKET WRAP
US indices closed with extensive gains, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed amid chunky gains in semiconductor names and the broad-based mega-caps. Intel had another positive catalyst, as it and Apple (AAPL) reached a preliminary chip-making agreement. As expected, while sectors were mixed, Tech was the clear gainer, with Utilities residing at the bottom of the breakdown. It was a broadly risk-on trade to end the week, and was helped by a stellar US jobs report, as the headline topped expectations, the unemployment rate remained unchanged, and wages were cooler than expected. The Dollar was lower, to the benefit of G10 peers, with CAD the clear laggard on a dismal Canadian jobs report. WTI and Brent closed in the green, as participants now await Iran’s response to the US proposal, which is reportedly due to come at some point on Friday. Upside in oil prices was limited after Trump and the US military signalled strikes on Iran yesterday didn’t mean they sought escalation and that the ceasefire with Iran is still ongoing. Treasuries were firmer across the curve, whilst precious metals gained. Away from the US, GBP and Gilts were buoyed by a better-than-feared Labour performance in the local elections.
US
UOM: Headline UoM consumer sentiment fell to 48.2 from 49.8 in the preliminary May report, below the expected 49.5. The decline was led by a drop in current conditions to 47.8 from 52.5, while forward-looking expectations edged up to 48.5 from 48.1. The drop in current conditions reflected concerns about high prices, both for personal finances and buying conditions for major purchases. The report also found that real income expectations continued a decline that began in March. It noted that one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, while about 30% mentioned tariffs. “Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.” On inflation expectations, year-ahead forecasts softened to 4.5% from 4.7%, while 5-year expectations declined to 3.4% from 3.5%.
US NONFARM PAYROLLS: Overall, it was a strong US jobs report. The US economy added 115k jobs in April, above the 73k forecast but below the elevated 178k in March, which was revised up to 185k. Job gains were seen in healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued to decline. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations. The participation rate dipped slightly to 61.8% from 61.9%, while the U-6 unemployment rate rose to 8.2% from 8%. On wages, earnings rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast, maintaining the prior pace from March. The Y/Y rate, however, accelerated to 3.6% from 3.5%. For the Fed, the report allows the central bank to keep its focus on the inflation side of the mandate, particularly with ongoing upside risks around the US/Iran conflict. Looking ahead, however, many are aware of downside risks to employment, particularly if the war drags on and costs for businesses rise further. Pantheon Macroeconomics write that “Aprilʼs data bolster the case for thinking the labor market is convalescing. But the continued weakness of surveys of hiring intentions and the developing pressure on firmsʼ costs from the surge in energy prices suggests it is too soon to sound the all-clear.”
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 7+ TICKS HIGHER AT 110-24
T-notes chop to oil price swings and strong NFP data.
THE DAY: T-notes were firmer on Friday, paring some of Thursday’s weakness. Oil prices saw two-way trade throughout the session, with early downside in crude supporting Treasuries before T-notes pared gains as oil recovered from lows. The geopolitical backdrop remained fluid. Further explosions were reported in the Strait of Hormuz, with reports suggesting US destroyers had come under fire before the US retaliated. President Trump later described the response as a “love tap” and reiterated that the ceasefire remains in place.
Meanwhile, markets continued to await Iran’s response to the latest US proposal, although Tasnim instead reported that Tehran is preparing a legal framework regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which could become a “deterrent and permanent law”. Additional clashes were later reported in the Strait.
On the data front, the highlight was the April nonfarm payrolls report, which was broadly strong. The US economy added 115k jobs, above the 73k forecast, although beneath the prior 185k, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%. Participation ticked lower. T-notes initially sold off on the release, with the resilient labour market reinforcing the view that the Fed can remain focused on inflation risks rather than downside labour concerns for now. However, the move largely pared as Treasuries continued to take direction from oil price action.
Elsewhere, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey declined, driven by weaker current conditions, while forward-looking expectations improved slightly. Inflation expectations eased, with the 1-year measure falling to 4.5% from 4.7%, while the 5-year declined to 3.4% from 3.5%.
SUPPLY
Notes
- US to sell USD 58bln of 3-year notes on 11th May, USD 42bln of 10-year notes on 12th May and USD 25bln of 30-year bonds on 13th May
Bills
- US to sell USD 77bln of 26-week bills and USD 89bln of 13-week bills on May 11th, to sell USD 80bln of 6-week bills and USD 50bln of 52-week bills on May 12th; all to settle May 14th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Pricing: Dec +2.9bps (prev. +5.6bps).
- EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 119bln (prev. USD 118bln) on May 7th
- SOFR at 3.60% (prev. 3.61%), volumes at USD 3.106tln (prev. USD 3.129tln) on May 7th
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.77bln (prev. 1.63bln) across 6 counterparties (prev. 7) on May 7th.
CRUDE
WTI (M6) SETTLED USD 0.61 HIGHER AT 95.52/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLED USD 1.23 HIGHER AT 101.29/BBL
The crude complex was slightly firmer as participants still await Iran’s response to the US, which is reportedly due to come at some point on Friday. On Thursday and overnight, there were reports of new strikes in the UAE and Iran. However, the US military downplayed this, saying they don’t see escalation, and Trump said the ceasefire is still on. Later, benchmarks saw upside in the European morning amid reports that Iran Navy seized the tanker Ocean Koi in a special operation, after it allegedly attempted to disrupt oil exports and Iranian national interests. Thereafter, benchmarks saw choppy trade as the Iranian response is due. WTI and Brent saw a knee-jerk lower in the US afternoon after Trump announced there would be a three-day ceasefire (May 9-11th) in the war between Ukraine and Russia. For the record, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count saw oil rise 2 to 410, natgas fall 1 to 129, leaving the total up 1 to 548. WTI traded between USD 93.82-98.64/bbl and Brent USD 99.55-102.92/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.81% at 7,397, NDX +2.35% at 29,235, DJI +0.02% at 49,609, RUT +0.71% at 2,860.
SECTORS: Technology +2.69%, Consumer Discretionary +0.46%, Materials +0.42%, Real Estate +0.11%, Consumer Staples +0.03%, Communication Services -0.04%, Industrials -0.50%, Financials -0.61%, Energy -0.63%, Health -0.89%, Utilities -0.94%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -1.01% at 5,912, Dax 40 -1.44% at 24,307, FTSE 100 -0.43% at 10,233, CAC 40 -1.09% at 8,113, FTSE MIB +0.00% at 49,290, IBEX 35 -0.95% at 17,889, PSI -0.73% at 9,067, SMI -0.26% at 13,101, AEX -0.19% at 1,018
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- CoreWeave (CRWV): Deeper than exp. loss per shr. w/ disappointing next Q rev. guide & raised capex guide.
- Akamai (AKAM): Announced a major AI infrastructure deal w/ a frontier model provider.
- Microchip (MCHP): Top & bottom line surpassed Wall St. exp$MNST +9%: Strong Q metrics.
- Iren (IREN): NVDA will invest up to $2.1bln as part of a deal to deploy up to 5 gigawatts of AI infrastructure.
- Monster Beverage (MNST): Adj. EPS and rev. beat.
- Coinbase (COIN): Surprise loss per shr. & rev. light.
- Nike (NKE): Downgraded at Wells Fargo.
- Moderna (MRNA) is working on an early-stage Hantavirus vaccine.
- Apple (AAPL) and Intel (INTC) reach preliminary chip-making agreement , according to WSJ citing sources.
- US President Trump planning to fire FDA commissioner Marty Makary, according to WSJ citing sources.
- Apollo (APO) and Blackstone (BX) reportedly weigh USD 35bln financing for Broadcom (AVGO), Bloomberg reports.
FX
The dollar index was weaker as the retreat in oil prices in late US afternoon on Thursday and, as such, lower US yields offset the better-than-expected NFP reading. Payrolls grew 115k, above the expected 73k, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. This gives the Fed some comfort regarding the jobs market, as employment has stabilised in the last two months, putting greater focus on the inflation mandate. Meanwhile, lower oil prices were a function of the US saying it does not seek an escalation after striking Iran yesterday and continued hopes Iran’s response will lead to a step closer to a resolution. In other news, consumer sentiment took a dip in the UoM report for May, weighed by real income expectations declining amid citations on gasoline prices and tariffs. Inflation expectations came down on the 1-year to 4.5% (prev. 4.7%) and 3.4% (prev. 3.5%). DXY.
CAD underperformed, weighed down by employment growth unexpectedly turning negative. Employment fell 17.7k (exp. 5.1k), leaving the unemployment rate rising to 6.9% from 6.7%, its highest level since October 2025. USD/CAD rose marginally to 1.3678.
GBP outperformed on Friday as local elections in the UK thus far point towards Labour avoiding the absolute worst-case scenario. Nonetheless, over 1,200 council seats have been lost at the time of writing for Labour, signalling a massive loss of confidence in the party. PM Starmer offered the pound support, suggesting that he intends to remain as the PM into the next General Election. Cable now sits around highs of 1.3631.
USA DATA RELEASE
US Jobs Jump 115K, Smashing Estimates; Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 4.3%
by Tyler Durden
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 08:41 AM
In his preview of today’s NFP report, Goldman’s Delta One head wrote that “NFP almost feels like a sideshow at this point. You can argue weak labor data gives a Warsh led Fed enough cover to cut, but with oil and input inflation still elevated there’s also an argument that a weakening labor market alongside a constrained Fed is actually the more difficult combination for risk assets.” With that in mind, moments ago the BLS reported that in April the US added a red hot 115K, above the median consensus of 65K (and near the upper end of the forecast range which peaked at 133K), down from an upward revised (for once) 185K (originally 178K). This was the first back to back gain in jobs in a year.
The change in February jobs was revised down by 23,000, from -133,000 to -156,000, and the change for March was revised up by 7,000, from +178,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 16,000 lower than previously reported
A look below the surface reveals a less impressive picture: while payrolls rose to a new record high, actual employment has dropped to the lowest since January 2025…
… as the monthly change in payrolls has disconnected dramatically from actual jobs, which dropped by 226K in April and are now down 4 months in a row!
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations, which is odd since all major ethnic groups saw their unemployment rate increase…
… while the Labor Force Participation Rate dipped to 61.8% from 61.9%. The employment-population ratio, at 59.1 percent, changed little in April. These measures edged down over the year after accounting for annual population control adjustments.
Wage growth came in cooler than expected, rising 0.2% MoM, below the 0.3% expected, and translating into a 3.6% annual increase, also below the 3.8% expected.
Some more details from the April report:
- The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 358,000 to 2.5 million in April. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.8 million and accounted for 25.3 percent of all unemployed people.
- The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 445,000 to 4.9 million in April. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
- The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 6.1 million in April. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
- Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in April. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was also little changed in April at 475,000.
Looking at the composition of the report, employment edged up by 115,000 in April, after showing little net change over the prior 12 months. In April, job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued to decline.
- Health care added 37,000 jobs, in line with the average monthly gain of 32,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in nursing and residential care facilities (+15,000) and home health care services (+11,000).
- Transportation and warehousing employment increased by 30,000 in April, reflecting a gain in couriers and messengers (+38,000). However, employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 105,000 since reaching a peak in February 2025.
- Retail trade added 22,000 jobs in April. Employment increased in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (+18,000) and in building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+13,000). These gains were partially offset by job losses in department stores (-7,000) and in electronics and appliance retailers (-2,000). Retail trade employment had shown little net change over the prior 12 months.
- Social assistance continued to trend up in April (+17,000), reflecting a gain of 24,000 jobs in individual and family services.
- Federal government employment continued to decline in April (-9,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 348,000, or 11.5 percent. Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they worked or received (or will receive) pay for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.
- Employment in information continued to trend down in April (-13,000). Telecommunications lost 3,000 jobs, while employment continued to trend down in motion picture and sound recording industries (-6,000) and in computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services (-4,000). Information employment is down by 342,000, or 11.0 percent, since its most recent peak in November 2022.
- Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.
Visually:
A few things stood out here: the monthly increase in courriers and messengers (i.e. DoorDash delivery(, +38K, was the highest since covid!
Government was also notable: total government jobs have now declined every month since October, and arr down 9 of the past 10 months.
But that is nothing compared to the depression in the Information sector, where jobs are now down every months since 2024!
END
I do not need to say anything else; the phony B/D added 391 jobs. The real story was this job report was a disaster
(zerohedge)
Closer Look Reveals April Jobs Report Was A Disaster, And AI Is Now Here To Take Your Job
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 12:22 PM
On the surface today’s jobs report was very strong: headline payrolls came in nearly double the expected (115K vs 65K), with unemployment flat just so Trump’s chief economist Kevin Hassett could push bullish taking points in today’s TV circuit such as this one.
- *HASSETT: ‘RIP-ROARING’ JOBS MARKET
Unfortunately, below the surface this was the ugliest jobs report in years, and one could say even more cooked than last month’s laughable surge in jobs (which was revised from 178K to 185K).
Here’s why.
First, while the Establishment survey showed an impressive 115K jump in jobs when virtually everyone was expecting a big drop, looking at the composition reveals two things: the biggest contributor was semi-government jobs from the Education and Health services category which added 46K, and has been the biggest, and only consistent source of jobs growth this decade.
But even more remarkable was the surge in courier and messenger jobs, which soared by 38K in April, reversing the 52K drop last month. Was there a Doordash or Uber hiring binge that we missed last month? We thought they were mostly laying off their thousands of illegal alien workers…
In other words, just two job categories accounted for almost all the job gains in April. As for the beating heart of the US economy, manufacturing jobs, they tumbled to -2,000 after surging 15,000 in March, the first negative print of 2026. Manufacturing jobs are now down 73K over the past year. Chemicals, Wood, and Machinery manufacturing are the biggest losers, but few subsectors are doing well
But what is even more concerning, is that the entire base of the monthly print was put in doubt after the BLS reported that in April, the Birth/Death adjustment “added” 391K jobs, which as we have explained repeatedly are not actual jobs but a baseline for model assumptions what the number of jobs in a given month “should” be. One would think after all the huge negative revisions to jobs under Biden as a result of flawed BIrth/Death assumptions the BLS would have learned its lesson. One would be wrong.
But stepping away from the Establishment survey, things are even uglier in the much more accurate Household Survey. It is here that we find that contrary to the abovementioned payrolls increase, the number of employed workers actually declined by 226K in April. Worse, this wasn’t a one off: as shown below, the number of employed workers has been declining every month this year, and is now down an average of 343K jobs every month of 2026 after hitting a record high in Dec 2025!
Unfortunately, this means that we are once again witnessing the infamous divergence between the Household And Establishment surveys, as the number of employed workers has been declining and is now the lowest since December 2024 ot 162.622 million, the number of payrolls (tracked by the Establishment survey) is now at an all time high of 158.735 million, a number which is clearly not supported by the data.
This divergence is also why the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%: even though employment shrank by 226K to 162.622 million, the unemployment rate did not rise because people left the labor force.
There was more rot under the surface, as the number of full-time jobs in April plunged by 424K, while part-time jobs surged by 123K.
The drop in full-time jobs dragged the total number of full-time workers to levels last seen in December 2024. In other words both total employment and full-time jobs are back to where they were when Trump was elected.
But while all of the above is just the usual statistical gimmicks we have exposed every year for nearly two decades, there was something much more ominous in today’s report: AI is finally coming for your job… if you are a programmer that is.
While the total number of jobs in April rose, on the abovementioned low quality Health and education and courrier (?) jobs, information jobs dropped again, sliding by 13K, having slid again… and again… and again. In fact, as shown in the next chart, Information jobs have now been negative every month since 2024!
Don’t expect that to change any time soon as the impact of AI “jobs outsourcing” is now here: as Goldman Delta One head Rich Privorotsky noted, we are seeing a flood of tech layoffs among which Cloudflare laying off 20%, Paypall firing 20%, Upwork 25%, Bill Holdings 30%, Coinbase 14%, Meta 10%, Microsoft 7%… and Google saying 75% of new code is now AI-generated (and about to layoff double digits too). This excludes the bloodbath across the crypto sector where the crypto winter coupled with AI has led to especially brutal mass layoffs.
Tech companies announced 33,361 job cuts in April, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. So far this year, the industry has planned 85,411 cuts, up 33% from the same period in 2025.
“Technology companies continue to announce large-scale cuts and are leading all industries in layoff announcements,” said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer. “Regardless of whether individual jobs are being replaced by AI, the money for those roles is.”
According to Layoffs.FYI, Q1 has seen the most tech related layoffs since the tech recession of 2022.
As Goldman’s Privorotsky puts it, “this phase has been the capex boom to enable what eventually becomes a far more radical labor adjustment cycle.” Which means workers are laid off to make space for capex spending and the occasional stock buyback.
As he concludes, that may ultimately be what the market believes a future Fed reaction function will revolve around…AI-driven productivity disinflation eventually allowing a much deeper cutting cycle. In short, the Universal Basic Income that we predicted over two years ago is coming to pay for welfare for the tens of millions soon to be laid off due to AI, is now on its way.
American Consumers Have Never Been Less Confident Despite Inflation Fears Easing; UMich
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 10:10 AM
With the “mini war” still ongoing (albeit with a ‘ceasefire’ in place), expectations were for a continued slide (already at record lows) in the American consumer’s sentiment in preliminary UMich data for May released today.
And while the expectations were correct in direction, once again they underestimated just how bad things are as the headline UMich print fell from 49.8 to 48.2 (a new record low and below the 49.5 expectation).
Under the hood was more mixed with Current Conditions tumbling to 47.8 from 52.5 (new all-time low) while Expectations ticked up from 48.1 to 48.5 (better than expected).
Not a pretty picture with all three indices below 50.
Source: Bloomberg
The American Consumer has been less confident…
Overall, inflation expectations eased last month: Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month, and Long-run inflation expectations inched down from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May.
The drop in inflation expectations is odd since all the underlying cohorts saw expectations rise?
The decline in headline sentiment was driven by a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases.
Republicans are losing faith…
UMich Survey Director Joanna Hsu notes that real income expectations continued a decline that began in March.
About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs.
Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump.
Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
CALIFORNIA/STATE FARM
California Insurance Regulators Say State Farm Mishandled Wildfire Claims
Thursday, May 07, 2026 – 08:55 PM
Authored by Dylan Morgan via The Epoch Times,
The California Department of Insurance announced on May 4 it filed an enforcement action against State Farm, alleging the company significantly mishandled claims from survivors of the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires.
“Wildfire survivors came to us for help, and we followed the facts,” Insurance Department Commissioner Ricardo Lara said.
“Our investigation found that State Farm delayed, underpaid, and buried policyholders in red tape at the worst moment of their lives. That is unacceptable, and we are taking decisive action to hold them accountable.”
The Palisades Fire and the nearby Eaton Fire, which ignited in Altadena, California, on Jan. 7, 2025, claimed around 30 lives and destroyed more than 12,000 structures.
The Insurance Department said that State Farm received approximately 11,300 of the nearly 39,000 claims related to the Los Angeles wildfires filed across all insurers, and that Lara launched an investigation into the insurance company in June 2025 after the department heard many complaints.
According to the department, it examined 220 of the claims filed with State Farm and found a total of 398 violations in 114 of those claims.
These violations consisted of “slow and inadequate investigation” through failing to meet deadlines in investigating claims, accepting or denying claims, and providing notice for additional time.
The Insurance Department also alleged that State Farm made unreasonably low settlement offers and underpaid claims.
This enforcement action seeks millions of dollars in penalties, which the department said is the largest amount pursued this century relating to a wildfire disaster.
The department also wants State Farm to speed up payments and settle outstanding claims.
The property lines of homes burned during the Palisades Fire are visible in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles on June 9, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times
State Farm denied any mishandling or intentional underpaying of wildfire claims and said the violations the Insurance Department identified require only about $40,000 in additional payments beyond the more than $5.7 billion it has paid to those affected by the fires.
“California’s homeowners insurance market is the most dysfunctional in the country … the state is facing an availability and affordability crisis, and the California Department of Insurance should take responsibility for regulatory delays and uncertainty that have contributed to fewer choices and higher costs for consumers,” the company said in its statement.
State Farm said it strongly disagrees with the department’s characterization of the company, and that any prospect or threat to suspend its licensing over “primarily administrative and procedural errors” is a reckless and politically motivated attack.
“Using a thin sample of claims to justify sweeping allegations turns regulatory oversight into a political weapon, creating headlines instead of delivering facts and real consumer protection. [The department’s examination] was based on a sample of 220 files, and most of the issues cited were administrative or process-related,” State Farm said.
The insurance company said every issue identified has already been, or is being addressed through claim reviews, and that it will provide supplemental payments when appropriate.
The same day, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued a statement warning insurance companies they may be subject to state enforcement actions if they unlawfully delay or deny claims from survivors of the Los Angeles fires.
In November 2025, Los Angeles County launched its own investigation into State Farm’s handling of insurance claims.
“The County has heard loud and clear from wildfire survivors that State Farm’s delays are standing in the way of rebuilding. Fair and timely insurance payments aren’t a privilege; they’re a right,” Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors Chair Kathryn Barger said.
On March 31, President Donald Trump also weighed in on the situation, saying State Farm and other insurers should “get their act together” after meeting with California politicians and hearing about the difficulties the wildfire victims faced in their insurance claims.
“It was brought to my attention that the Insurance Companies, in particular, State Farm, have been absolutely horrible to people that have been paying them large premiums for years, only to find that when tragedy struck, these horrendous Companies were not there to help!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
END
NEW YORK
Hochul Targets NYC’s Multimillion-Dollar Second Homes In $268 Billion Budget Framework
Thursday, May 07, 2026 – 08:30 PM
New York is taking direct aim at the city’s ultra-wealthy absentee owners. In a major policy shift announced Thursday, Governor Kathy Hochul and state legislative leaders reached a framework agreement on a $268 billion state budget that includes a new annual tax on multimillion-dollar second homes in New York City – a move designed to generate roughly $500 million a year to help close the city’s projected $5.4 billion budget deficit.
The proposal, often called a “pied-à-terre” tax (French for “foot on the ground”), would apply to luxury properties valued at $5 million or more that are owned by people whose primary residence is outside New York City. These high-end apartments and townhouses – frequently used only a few weeks a year by global elites, celebrities, and finance executives – have long been criticized as under-taxed symbols of inequality in one of the world’s most expensive housing markets.
“This is a tax on properties worth more than $5 million that are owned by people who do not reside in New York City – the super wealthy who can purchase properties and use them to store their wealth,” Mayor Zohran Mamdani said in support of the plan. “If you can afford a $5 million second home that sits empty most of the year, you can afford to contribute like every other New Yorker.”
Hochul’s Political Pivot
The tax represents a notable evolution for Governor Hochul. For years she resisted aggressive wealth taxes, warning they could drive businesses and high-net-worth residents out of the state. But after Zohran Mamdani – a 34-year-old democratic socialist and state assemblymember – won the New York City mayoral race in November 2025 in a stunning upset, the political math changed.
With Mamdani pushing an ambitious progressive agenda (including universal pre-K and 3-K) and with federal funding cuts looming under the Trump administration, Hochul agreed to the second-home surcharge as part of a broader budget deal. The revenue would flow directly to New York City, according to the NY Times.
Hochul framed the tax as both fiscally necessary and morally fair:
“If you can afford a multi-million dollar second home in New York City, you can afford to pay your fair share.”
Details Still Being Finalized
While the framework has been agreed to in principle, key specifics remain under negotiation. Hochul said she would release more details “soon,” including exact rates, exemptions, and how many of the roughly 13,000 eligible properties would actually be taxed. Legislative leaders cautioned that the governor’s announcement was premature.
Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie said Thursday that no final deal had been reached and that “there is no budget deal.” Senate Democratic spokesman Mike Murphy described the agreement as covering only “big concepts.”
Still, the direction is clear: New York is joining a growing number of jurisdictions (including parts of Europe and several U.S. cities) that are experimenting with higher taxes on non-primary residences to fund public services amid housing shortages and affordability crises.
The second-home tax is just one piece of a wide-ranging budget that also includes:
- $4.5 billion to expand child care statewide – a key priority for Mayor Mamdani.
- Delays to the state’s aggressive climate targets under the 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (pushing full implementation to 2028 and adjusting methane calculations).
- New restrictions on federal immigration enforcement, including barring ICE agents from wearing masks and limiting cooperation between local police and federal agents.
- A cap on certain auto insurance payouts and speed-limiting devices for chronic “super-speeders” in New York City school zones.
- A state-level exemption on up to $25,000 in tips for many workers (mirroring federal changes) and $1 billion in utility bill rebates.
Political and Economic Stakes
Republicans immediately attacked the package. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, Hochul’s likely Republican opponent in November’s gubernatorial race, called the budget a “triple threat to your wallet: more taxes, record spending, and a utility bill crisis.”
Environmental groups criticized the climate deadline extensions as a retreat, while trial lawyers and consumer advocates expressed concern that auto insurance changes could limit compensation for crash victims.
For Hochul – who is seeking re-election – the deal allows her to claim credit for delivering on affordability and child care while showing political flexibility in partnering with the city’s new progressive mayor. For Mamdani, it marks an early victory in his effort to make the ultra-wealthy “pay their fair share.”
The budget must still be finalized and passed by the Legislature. Details on the second-home tax rates and implementation are expected in the coming days.
END
BLACK ROCK/PRIVATE EQUITY
BLACK ROCK CUTS ASSET VALUES BY 5% AND THEN GATES FUND AFTER 8.5% REDEMPTIONS! TROUBLED LOANS@!!
(ZEROHEDGE)
BlackRock Private Credit Fund Cuts Asset Values By 5%, As Golub Gates After 8.5% Redemptions
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 12:08 AM
Just another day in private credit paradise… er, hell.
One day after Gundlach repeated his warning that the private credit crisis will end in tears for bagholders, Blackrock cut the value of its publicly-traded private credit fund by about 5%, as it – like most of its peers – struggled under the weight of troubled loans, markdowns and lower returns.
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp., a publicly traded middle-market lending fund, said markdowns totaled $35 million in the quarter ended March 31, according to a statement on Thursday. Amusingly, and in hopes of redirecting attention, the $1.5 billion fund highlighted “improving credit quality,” and said it invested more in senior debt and strengthened its balance sheet. The fund said its dividend, which was cut to 17 cents a share last quarter, would remain flat.
The fund has been a challenge for BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with about $14 trillion in assets, which is expanding aggressively into private credit. BlackRock acquired specialist manager HPS Investment Partners last year for about $12 billion, aiming to significantly expand its existing capabilities and legacy funds, including TCPC.
The TCPC fund said in January that it cut the net asset value of its assets by 19%, which sent shares tumbling. The fund has struggled in part due to exposure to e-commerce aggregators – companies that buy and manage Amazon.com Inc. sellers – as well as troubled home improvement company Renovo Home Partners, which filed for bankruptcy. Back in March, we reported that Blackrock slashed the value of one of its private loans from par to 0 in just months, Infinite Commerce Holdings, sparking a selloff in the shares as the market was stunned by how quickly a loan from the world’s most iconic asset manager can go from par to 0 in just days.
“While we have made meaningful progress, we recognize there is more work to do and we remain focused on disciplined execution,” Chief Executive Officer Phil Tseng said on a call with analysts.
Loans on non-accrual status – typically meaning borrowers have missed their debt payments – declined to 7.6% on a cost basis, compared with 9.7% in the prior quarter. That’s because one of its portfolio loans was sold, and two were restructured. Investments in 13 portfolio companies were on non-accrual status.
Tseng said the largest driver of the markdowns was an investment in Job and Talent, a staffing and recruitment company that suffered from weak performance in the quarter. Almost a third of the markdowns came from software-related investments, he said.
Lenders in the $1.8 trillion private credit market have been under scrutiny as advancements in artificial intelligence threaten to upend their bets on software, an industry that makes up a significant portion of lenders’ portfolios.
Elsewhere, the last big private credit fund we were waiting to report its redemption gates, did just that: Golub Capital announced it was capping withdrawals from its private credit fund after investors sought to pull 8.5% of shares, the latest instance of a money manager restricting outflows amid a wave of redemption requests.
Golub Capital Private Credit Fund, or GCRED, plans to enforce the quarterly withdrawal limit of 5% of common shares outstanding, according to a letter to shareholders on Thursday. The roughly $9.9 billion fund intends to fulfill repurchase requests for 8,891,200 shares.
The credit manager told investors that the redemption requests “were concentrated in a small subset representing approximately 5% of GCRED’s more than 12,000 shareholders.” Golub also cited roughly 14 million in new share subscriptions this year through the end of April.
GCRED has a liquidity cushion of approximately $4.1 billion and its portfolio consists of nearly $10 billion in total investments at fair value, the firm said. As of the end of the first quarter, less than 0.1% of GCRED’s investment portfolio was on non-accrual status.
None of that mattered in the, and Golub has now joined every single one of its BDC peers in gating its investors. The silver lining, unlike such disasters as the two big Blue Owl BDCs (OTIC and OCIC), which saw investors try to pull 41% and 22% of their capital respectively – and were obviously gated – Golub’s tally was only 8.5%, which in this age where double digit redemptions requests are the normal, is downright respectable.
END
TRUMPS NEW ACROSS THE BOARD 10$ TARIFFS
Court Strikes Down Trump’s Replacement Tariffs; A Minor, Temporary Setback, With Sec 301 Tariffs Coming
Thursday, May 07, 2026 – 11:31 PM
After the close on Thursday, the Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled to invalidate Trump’s latest set of universal 10% tariff imposed two months ago under Sec. 122. The administration will quickly appeal this decision before it takes effect May 12. If the case follows the same pattern as the challenge to the IEEPA tariffs last year, a higher court might soon stay this ruling and leave the tariffs in place pending a longer review.
As the tariffs are due to expire July 24, even if the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) eventually rules against these tariffs, there is a good chance a full judicial review will take long enough that the tariffs will remain in effect until the administration replaces them with new tariffs under Sec. 301 (unfair trade practices) and Sec. 232 (national security).
As a reminder, Section 122 tariffs were always a stopgap: by statute, they can only be in place for 150 days, so they’ll expire on July 24, 2026. Investigations by the US Trade Representative under Section 301 are widely expected to wrap up before then, clearing the way for permanent replacement tariffs.
That said, if the ruling survives appeal, the government will likely have to refund unlawfully collected duties, adding to the nearly $170 billion already owed as a result of the Feb. 20 decision.
Key Points:
1. The CIT ruling was a split decision, with two Democratic-appointed judges granting summary judgment against the administration’s position and one Republican-appointed judge dissenting, favoring a full review of the case instead. This is in contrast to the CIT’s earlier ruling last year, in which a panel of one Democratic- and two Republican-appointed judges unanimously granted summary judgment against the IEEPA tariffs.
2. The CIT ruling gives the administration 5 days to rescind the tariffs, and requires that importers be paid refunds plus interest. We expect the administration to immediately appeal the ruling to the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC), as it did following the CIT’s IEEPA ruling. In that instance, the CAFC stayed the CIT ruling within a day, leaving the tariffs in effect, and then took 3 months to rule on the case. That ruling was then appealed to SCOTUS, which took another 6 months to rule. As the Sec. 122 tariffs expire July 24 and cannot be extended without an act of Congress, an eventual SCOTUS ruling against these tariffs looks unlikely to come before expiration. That said, if courts ultimately rule against the use of Sec. 122 to impose these tariffs after they have expired, importers could collect refunds beyond IEEPA refunds they will start to receive in coming days.
3. The Sec. 122 tariffs are worth slightly more than 4% on the effective tariff rate (this is lower than the 10% headline rate due to exemptions for products and most imports from Canada and Mexico), and account for slightly less than half of the new tariffs since the start of 2025 that remain in effect. They are likely generating customs duty collections of around $11-12bn per month (not annualized), or around $55-60bn total if they remain in effect for the full 5 months.
4. Regardless of how courts ultimately decide this case, the ruling should have no bearing on the administration’s longer-term ability to impose tariffs under Sec. 232 (national security) or Sec. 301 (unfair trade practices), which the White House has signaled will replace the Sec. 122 tariffs. The authority to impose tariffs under those laws is well-tested, unlike the IEEPA and Sec. 122 tariffs, and customs duties have been collected continuously under both authorities since the first Trump administration.
5. The US Trade Representative is currently conducting investigations under the Section 301 trade enforcement authority. These investigations are widely seen as setting the stage for permanent replacement levies that will largely replicate the tariff rates in place before the Feb. 20 court ruling.
6. The court limited relief to three plaintiffs representing a small fraction of total US imports. Other importers may now bring suit, but we expect the administration to quickly appeal and seek a stay of the ruling. The split decision invalidating the tariffs is relatively narrow.
The court also sidestepped the broader question of whether the US currently faces a “fundamental international payments problem”, the authorized purpose of Section 122. Instead, it found the administration’s stated justification — trade and current account deficits — was not an appropriate stand-in.
If the ruling stands, relief is limited to the importers who brought suit — two private firms and Washington State. The court dismissed claims from other non-importer parties for lack of standing. Additional importers could — and likely will — seek relief with their own lawsuits.
end
WEATHER/VERY DRY
Megadrought: We Just Experienced The Driest First Three Months Of A Year In US History
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 07:45 AM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
January, February and March were insanely dry. In fact, in all of U.S. history conditions have never been so dry during the first three months of the year. Just think about that for a moment. Not even during the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s were conditions this dry. Many were hoping that 2026 would be the year when our multi-year drought would finally break. Needless to say, that hasn’t happened. Scientists are telling us that the southwestern U.S. is in the midst of the worst multi-year drought in at least 1,200 years. We really are experiencing a “megadrought”, and this is something that experts such as Steve Quayle and Dane Wigington have been talking about for a long time. Unfortunately, it appears that our seemingly endless “megadrought” has gone to an entirely new level in 2026.
If it simply doesn’t rain, there is not much that farmers and ranchers can do.
Right now approximately 63 percent of the continental United States is experiencing at least some level of drought, and the first quarter of this year was one for the record books…
Winter wheat is dying in Kansas fields that should be green by now. Ranchers in New Mexico are selling cattle they cannot afford to feed. Reservoir levels along the Colorado River system are dropping weeks ahead of the season when mountain snowmelt is supposed to refill them. Across roughly 63% of the contiguous United States, drought rated moderate to exceptional on the federal scale has taken hold, and the first three months of 2026 were the driest the nation has recorded in 131 years of continuous measurement.
This isn’t just a crisis.
This is catastrophic.
It appears that the winter wheat crop in the U.S. is going to be a disaster.
At this stage, more than 81 percent of the Southern Plains is experiencing drought…
Heading into the harvesting season for the key winter wheat crop, much of the western side of the U.S. Plains are locked in drought. Over 81% of Southern Plains is experiencing some form of drought, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Nearly 20% of the region is experiencing either “extreme” or “exceptional” drought.
Only 30% of U.S. winter wheat is in either good or excellent condition as of the start of this week, according to the most recent weekly Crop Progress report from the Department of Agriculture. By comparison, 49% of the crop was good-or-excellent at this point last year.
The situation is particularly dire in the state of Oklahoma.
Last year, the state produced 101.1 million bushels of red winter wheat.
Thanks to the drought, it is being projected that the state will produce less than half of that total this year…
At the 2026 Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association meeting, crop scouts, extension specialists, and grain elevator representatives painted a sobering picture of this year’s hard red winter wheat crop. Their estimates say the 2026 crop is roughly half the size of the previous two years, with production projected at 48.9 million bushels compared to 101.1 million bushels in 2025. The outlook is based on an average yield of 23.93 bushels per acre across an expected 2.043 million harvested acres, highlighting the significant downturn facing Oklahoma wheat producers.
When there is a lot less wheat to go around, prices will go up.
It is simply a matter of supply and demand.
One farmer that grows winter wheat in Kansas is saying that his farm has only had a quarter of an inch of precipitation since last fall…
Southwest Kansas farmer Gary Millershaski says his area has only received a quarter-of-an-inch of precipitation since last fall. “For us to get a 30-bushel crop, you’ve really got to be optimistic and believe in prayer. That’s a fact.”
He has done everything right, but the sky has been silent.
What is he supposed to do?
So far in 2026, Chicago wheat futures are up about 30 percent…
Chicago wheat futures have gained nearly 30% since the start of the year — the biggest gain among row crop futures — due to the combination of U.S. drought, global fertilizer shortages and a looming El Niño.
If this crisis in the Middle East is not resolved, this will only be just the beginning.
Once upon a time, the U.S. was absolutely swimming in wheat, but now we are moving into a time when it will be considered a “luxury grain”.
Of course beef is already considered to be a “luxury meat”.
When I was growing up, my mother would feed us beef constantly because it was so inexpensive.
But now beef prices have skyrocketed, and some of the prices that we are seeing at the meat counters in our grocery stores are absolutely absurd…
I never thought that I would see beef prices get this high.
But this is the reality that we are living in now.
And it appears that beef prices will continue to remain elevated because the size of the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest that it has been since 1951…
The US cattle herd remained the smallest since 1951 at the start of the year, in the latest signal that consumer beef prices will remain near records.
There were about 86.2 million cattle and calves in the US as of Jan. 1, the US Department of Agriculture said in a Friday report. The tally is nearly unchanged from 2025, providing no relief to the ongoing cattle shortage.
The lack of improvement comes as ranchers keep selling animals to slaughter amid high beef demand, rather than retaining the animals to grow their herds. The downsizing — which began years prior when ranchers shrunk their herds due to high production costs and droughts — has sent consumer beef prices to all-time highs.
It is really hard to feed cattle when conditions are bone dry.
Sadly, they could get even drier in the months ahead…
Meanwhile, there’s a 62% chance of the world’s climate shifting from neutral to El Niño between June and August, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecast. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said that this El Niño could be the strongest on record, with peak intensity hitting in October.
El Niño typically results in hot and dry weather in many growing areas, including the U.S. Corn Belt and in Australia. With fertilizer supplies thin, this may further compound production losses for world wheat.
We are being told that we could soon be experiencing a “super El Niño”, and meteorologist Ryan Maue is warning that the long-term forecast for the second half of this year is “off the charts”…
I have been repeatedly warning my readers that global weather patterns are going nuts, and I was not exaggerating one bit.
We really are facing a historic long-term crisis with no end in sight.
As I discussed last week, for the upcoming season U.S. farmers are planting the fewest acres of wheat that we have seen since records began in 1919.
In 1919, there were 104 million people living in the United States.
Today, there are 341 million people living in the United States.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that we have a major problem on our hands.
Many of us have been warning about this crisis for years, and now we really have reached a breaking point.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
END
KEVIN WARSH/NEW FED GOVERNOR .ROBERT H…
Question what you see and do not see
Apparently China is rolling out the carpet for TRUMP.
Is there something hidden one does not see? Is there a bigger play than IRan? Do you know that Zelensky is hiding in a bumper in LVIV while threatening to strike Moscow May 9th during the Russian declared ceasefire? And do you know that Putin personally has ordered an Oreshnik strike on Kiev if this happens? Knowing that air space is closed over the launch space and the public warning to leave Kiev perhaps is not theatre to be missed.
Years ago I wrote ALL of the Governors of the FED over the theft of the TROPOS ACATS. You have seen it. Kevin was there and received correspondence.
Why is the Corpus that Bill Barr and Andrew recovered put back into Treasury with a rock on it that Janet Yellen could not lift?
We ensured that CHina, India, Indonesia etc. and Russia knew at the highest levels. Sun Tzu said that the pen is mightier than the sword; i guess i will find out. Because what storm was started back then by initial publishing by the Harvey Organ and the Whitehats led to global disclosure in over 20 languages. We even wrote nations that alternative settlement in different currencies was a must because the Referee was a thief and could not be trusted. Perhaps those words had effect well beyond what we knew in exposure. As those writings found their way into Departments with NO NAME. And yes, long before anyone said anything in 2018 I wrote about a young Russian Programmer who created the blockchain for Russia after meeting with Putin in Singapore and subsequently did the same for China. Where do you think CIPS came from and why
In 2006, at age 35, Kevin Warsh became the youngest Federal Reserve Governor in history. They told you it was merit. It wasn’t. It was perhaps, placement.
For 5 years he sat inside the machine. Learned every wire. Every backdoor. Every weakness. Then he walked away in 2011. Went silent. Waited.
15 years of silence.
During those 15 years, he was the Fed’s official emissary to Asia and the G-20. He built relationships with every central bank that now forms BRICS. China. India. Russia. Saudi Arabia. He wasn’t doing diplomacy. He was doing architecture. DO NOT forget that the Indonesian Finance Minister accosted Obama about the ACTS in Seoul at the G20 meeting. And at the time when the British Prime Minister approached China to ask about Tropos he was told that they do not discuss matters of STATE with him prior to that meeting. What did that mean, given that tehy hired Experts to explain to them what I was doing and why?
Now Trump just made Kevin Chair of the Federal Reserve.
His confirmation hearing, April 21. His words — on the record:
“I will shrink the balance sheet.“
You don’t shrink a $7 trillion balance sheet. You don’t “reduce” it. You REPLACE the system underneath it. That’s what a “revised Treasury-Fed accord” means. CNBC reported it May 4. Nobody understood what they were reading.
Here’s what they missed:
Kevin’s wife is Jane Lauder. Estée Lauder dynasty. Net worth: billions. He doesn’t need their money. He can’t be bought. He can’t be threatened. He can’t be stopped.
The Lauder family moved 40% of their holdings to physical gold in Q1 2026. While Warsh was telling Congress he’d “shrink the balance sheet.” While gold was climbing to $4,763.
They knew. Because HE told them.
2006: Planted inside the Fed.
2011: Extracted with full knowledge.
2026: Reactivated to FINISH it.
20 years. One mission. Dismantle the old ledger. Activate the new one.
The man who sat in the room with Bernanke during 2008 — who watched them print $4 trillion to save banks that should have died — is now in charge of burning it all down.
If i read the tea leaves correctly then the next several months will prove most interesting.
We watch to see.
END
THIS IS REALLY GOOD!!
Fed PANIC Buying Begins as U.S. Banks Brace for CRE Fallout
by ITM Trading
Thursday, May 07, 2026 – 14:16
https://www.youtube.com/embed/8z2A2v-FrHc?si=wVUat1dRqUHcq8l3
The Fed isn’t the lender of last resort anymore. It’s the lender of first resort.
Treasuries now make up 65.9% of the Fed’s balance sheet. The highest level since March 2008. The buyers aren’t showing up. Central banks are walking away from US debt and into physical gold. The Fed is left holding the bag.
Now Starwood has frozen redemptions on a $22 billion real estate fund. CRE delinquencies just surged to 7.55%. Private credit is leaking from every seam. Banks are extending and pretending because their balance sheets can’t survive the truth.
If billionaires can’t get their money out, what makes you think your bank won’t pull the same trick with your deposits?
Taylor Kenney lays out exactly what’s coming. And why most people still aren’t ready.
About ITM Trading: ITM Trading has spent nearly 30 years helping clients prepare for monetary resets, inflation, and systemic risk using physical gold and silver. We focus on education, historical context, and strategies designed to protect wealth when trust in the system breaks down.
📖 FREE GUIDE — Gold & Silver Buyer’s Guide: What You Need Before the Next Banking Shock: Download Now
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report May 8, 2026 Issue 7735 | Independent View of the News |
| AI Bots Auditioning for Wall Street Trading Are Mostly Losing Most of the systems lose money. They trade too much. They make wildly different decisions when given identical instructions. And no one yet knows if these shortcomings will fade with more powerful iterations — or if they reveal something fundamental about the gap between large language models and how markets actually work… Across all 32 sets of results, a model finished in profit only six times. https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ai-bots-auditioning-for-wall-street-trading-are-mostly-losing-86902.html Semiconductors stock declined smartly on Thursday morning; but tech stocks and Fangs soared on a rotation out of semis and into oversold software stocks. This action carried Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500 to all-time highs. The euphoria for stocks mandates that traders always own something. The DJIA and DJTA were down modestly in the morning; the DJTA turned positive by late morning. Bonds were up a tad. Oil and gasoline were down sharply; precious metals rallied moderately. ESMs traded moderately lower from their 18:00 ET opening until they broke higher near 21:30 ET and commenced a rally that took ESMS to a daily high of 7410.50 (+21.00) at 3:13 ET. A professional dump appeared, ESMs fell to 7389.75 at 6:08 ET. After z modest rally, ESMs fell to a low of 7384:75 at 9:48 ET. There was unusual selling on the NYSE Open. However, traders are conditioned to buy dips and there is enormous euphoria in the stock market. So, traders aggressively bought and created am effective double top for ESMs (7410.00) at 11 ET. Though the usual suspects eagerly played Fangs and non-semiconductor tech stocks, activity was languid as investors and discerning traders awaited Iran’s response to the US’s latest peace deal. ESMs sank to 7391.25 at 11:26 ET on liquidation for the European close and USMs turning negative. A late manipulation for the European close pushed ESMs to 7401.00 at 11:30 ET. After plodding up to 7394.75 at 11:04 ET, ESMs sank in concert with the fall in USMs on a CNN report that Iran imposed new rules for Strait of Hormuz passage; and a report in which the Iran Secretary of the National Commission of the Parliament asserted that the right to enrich uranium, the complete lifting of sanctions, and the release of Iran’s assets are NON-NEGOTIABLE. Iran imposes new rules for Strait of Hormuz in bid to secure wartime gains – CNN On Wednesday, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s account on the social media app Telegram posted a message laying out his vision for the Persian Gulf. The leader called for a “new regional and global order under the strategy of a strong Iran” where there would be no place for foreigners “and their mischief… using the leverage of closing the strait” as one way to achieve that vision… The PGSA document now made available to shippers comprises more than 40 questions, requiring vessels to declare their name and identification number, any “previous name,” country of origin and destination. It also asks for the nationalities of the registered owners and operators and of the crew on board, plus details of the cargo… https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/07/middleeast/iran-hormuz-rules-warime-gains-intl IRAN REJECTS U.S. STRAIT OF HORMUZ DEAL AS ‘UNREALISTIC’ Senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran will not accept a U.S. plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless it includes reparations for war damage. He rejected Washington’s proposed framework, saying Iran will not accept symbolic concessions and insists on “tangible benefits” in any agreement. Rezaei added that Iran will continue its “resistance,” signaling no softening in its stance despite ongoing negotiations… https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2052410146375061702 After sinking to a daily low of 7366.00 (-23.50) at 12:16 ET, ESMs rebounded sharply on the historic euphoria for stocks. Alas, sellers returned, ESMs fell to a new daily low of 7345.75 at 13:27 ET. After a rebound to 7370.50 at 14:18 ET, ESMs fell to a double bottom at 14:45 ET. They then traded within a 17- handle range until the illegal late manipulation forced ESMs to7378.75 at 16:04 ET. Trump TACOed on tariffs for EU automobile exports to the US! Trump Gives EU Until July 4 to Ratify Deal, Extending Deadline – BBG 15:12 ET @ariel_oseran Thursday afternoon: The IRGC’s Fars News reports that explosions heard near Bandar Abbas were due to the “exchange of fire between the Iranian armed forces and the enemy,” near the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, commercial parts of the Bahman pier in Qeshm were attacked. U.S. military launched attacks on the Iranian ports of Qeshm and Abbas – Fox News (After close) US Official: This is not a restarting of the war – Fox Iran Claims It Fired Missiles at Three US Destroyers: Tanim – BBG 16:54 ET @ariel_oseran: The Iranian Armed Forces Central Headquarters Spokesperson: The U.S. military violated the ceasefire by attacking an Iranian oil tanker departing from Iran’s coastal waters near Jask towards the Strait of Hormuz, along with another vessel entering the Strait near Fujairah in the UAE. At the same time, they carried out airstrikes on civilian areas, in cooperation with some countries in the region, on the coasts of Khamir, Sirik and Qeshm Island. The Iranian armed forces immediately retaliated by attacking American military vessels east of the Strait of Hormuz and south of Chabahar Port, causing significant damage to them. The criminal and aggressor America and its supporting countries should know that the Islamic Republic of Iran is as powerful it ever was and will respond to any aggression with a crushing response without the slightest hesitation. Trump: Three World Class American Destroyers just transited, very successfully, out of the Strait of Hormuz, under fire. There was no damage done to the three Destroyers, but great damage done to the Iranian attackers. They were completely destroyed along with numerous small boats, which are being used to take the place of their fully decapitated Navy. These boats went to the bottom of the Sea, quickly and efficiently. Missiles were shot at our Destroyers and were easily knocked down. Likewise, drones came, and were incinerated while in the air… April Challenger Job Cuts 83,387 (-20.9% y/y), 70k expected Q1 Nonfarm Productivity 0.8%, 0.6% exp; Unit Labor Costs 2.3%, 2.5% exp Initial Jobless Claims 200k, 205k exp; Continuing Claims 1.66m, 1.8m exp New York Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations for April 3.5%; March consumer credit $13.25B DOJ probing $2.6 billion in oil trades related to Iran war, sources say (Reuters says $7B of trades) Federal officials are probing at least four these trades, sources said. https://abcnews.com/US/doj-probing-26-billion-oil-trades-related-iran/story?id=132738007 Positive aspects of previous session Software stocks rallied on a rotation out of grossly overvalued & extended Semiconductors. Apple hit an all-time high of 289.27 and has a12-month trailing PE of 34.7; Forward 12-mo PE is 31.54 Negative aspects of previous session Stocks sank, including Fangs and tech that had rallied sharply in the morning. USMs fell from +16/32 (244 ET) to -17/32 (13:26 ET). Oil and gasoline rallied smartly after being down sharply. Precious metals rallied moderately. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What can we believe about the US-Iran negotiations? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7347.79 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7385.02; 7321.25 @StephenMoore: The biggest wealth transfer in American history isn’t happening on Wall Street. It’s happening on U-Hauls. Over $2 trillion in income fled high-tax blue states for low-tax red states in just 11 years. And blue states’ solution? Raise taxes again. https://x.com/StephenMoore/status/2052475325003559242 When will the financial crises of Big Blue Cities and states hit critical mass? Fed Balance Sheet: +$9.555B on T-Bill +$7.585B; Reserves +$113.989B (1-yr high, AI Bubble fuel) @zerohedge: Entire market is now one giant gamma squeeze: S&P traded $2.6 trillion notional of calls yesterday, all time high https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2052351057158668476 Today – Barring a profoundly out of line print, the April Employment Report will have little effect and/or a transitory effect. The AI Bubble and Iran reports are driving the markets now. Traders will play for the Friday Rally; but late trading could see pro traders ‘liquidating down to sleeping levels’ for the weekend. Few professional traders want to be exposed to negative Iran news over the weekend. ESMs opened at 7336.25 (-26.75) on Thursday night but quickly rallied because the US is downplaying the attacks on Thursday afternoon and traders are euphoric for stocks. ESMs are +8.00, NQMs are +40.75 (-141.25 on Thursday night open); USMs are +3/32; oil & gasoline are up smartly at 20:07 ET. Expected Economic Data: April NFP 75k, Mfg. 1k, Rate 3.8%, Wages 0.3% m/m & 3.8% y/y, Workweek 34.2, Labor Force Participation Rate 62%; May UM Sentiment 49.5, Current Conditions 52.3, Expectations 48.1, One-year inflation 4.8%, Five-to-10-year inflation 3.5% S&P Index 50-day MA: 6853; 100-day MA: 6875; 150-day MA: 6837; 200-day MA: 6748 DJIA 50-day MA: 47,873;100-day MA: 48,468; 150-day MA: 47,990; 200-day MA: 47,309 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (7337.11 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6391.57 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7215.76 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7364.67 triggers a buy sign @officer_Lew: Fast food spots installing bulletproof glass between employees and customers is wild. What a time to be alive. (Why do Americans accept living like this?) https://x.com/officer_Lew/status/2052441320317223376 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
$16M Hospice Fraud Exposed In Newsom’s California As Trump Admin Ramps Up Crackdown
Thursday, May 07, 2026 – 07:15 PM
Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,
The Trump administration continues its aggressive push to root out waste and abuse in federal entitlement programs, exposing yet another layer of systemic fraud thriving in Gavin Newsom’s California.
A new investigation highlights a single attending physician whose National Provider Identifier was tied to 17 different hospice operations in the Los Angeles area.
These entities filed more than 3,000 claims on behalf of only 900 patients, billing Medicare for $16 million.
Hospice care expert Ira Byock laid out the red flags clearly: “Anything over 100 patients at a given time that you have responsibility for as a hospice physician should start to raise red flags.”
This case fits the broader pattern of exploitation that federal authorities under the Trump administration have targeted. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, led by Dr. Mehmet Oz, recently delisted around 450 suspected fraudulent hospice providers in Los Angeles County, suspending more than $600 million in questionable claims with no appeals filed.
Oz’s spotlighted billions in hospice fraud connected to foreign mafias and welfare scams that victimized seniors:
These revelations build directly on prior exposures of California’s entrenched fraud networks. As we previously detailed, the Trump administration dismantled elements of a sprawling $146 billion Medi-Cal fraud operation:
California Democrats have responded by attempting to criminalize the very act of exposing such schemes, as independent journalist Nick Shirley confronted them over proposed measures that would silence watchdogs:
The on-the-ground reporting captured providers panicking when approached. Doors closed quickly. Seniors in Visalia described feeling deceived. One couple stated plainly: “The way I see it we were just taken in.”
Neither the physician in question nor the associated hospice operation has faced discipline or charges in this latest instance. Both remain active in the Medicare program. This lack of immediate consequences underscores the inertia that oversight under Trump is now confronting head-on.
State officials have pointed out that Medicare is a federal program and highlighted their own enforcement actions, including a $267 million hospice fraud takedown announced in April. Yet the persistence of these schemes in Los Angeles County—home to far more hospice providers than many entire states—reveals deep vulnerabilities that predated the current federal pressure.
The Trump administration’s Task Force to Eliminate Fraud is delivering results by acting decisively, protecting taxpayers and vulnerable Americans from networks that treat end-of-life care as a revenue stream. Newsom’s deflection cannot obscure the reality: California’s entitlement systems have operated with minimal accountability for too long.
Billions have been siphoned while seniors were enrolled without full understanding and providers cycled patients for maximum billing. The sunlight now being shone on these operations marks a decisive shift from previous neglect.
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‘Muslim-Only’ Water Park Event Canceled By Texas City
Thursday, May 07, 2026 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A Texas city that had a Muslim-only celebration scheduled at a city-owned water park has said that the event would be canceled.
“After further review and in the best interest of the City of Grand Prairie, the June 1 Eid event at Epic Waters Indoor Waterpark has been canceled. No additional comment will be made at this time,” said Eric Alvarez, spokesman for the city of Grand Prairie.
Aminah Knight, the organizer of the event, said she was “deeply disappointed” by the event being canceled and had only been informed by a park manager.
“What began as a private event for the Muslim community to celebrate Eid in a joyful and modest environment became something much bigger than I ever imagined,” she said in a text message to The Epoch Times. “The flyer was originally shared within private community spaces, but it was later circulated more broadly by people who were not interested in attending, but rather in creating division and controversy.”
Knight said she is going to turn what she called a “painful experience” into “something beautiful” and will host an interfaith event called “The Great American Cookout” on July 4. She said the event would be a place “where people from different backgrounds can come together, connect, and truly get to know one another as Americans.”
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott threatened to pull $530,000 in state funding if the city of Grand Prairie allowed the celebration to go on.
The event was to celebrate Eid al-Adha, an annual Islamic celebration, and was promoted as being for only Muslims. While the city of Grand Prairie owns the water park, a private third-party contractor runs it.
“A city-owned water park in Grand Prairie openly advertised a ‘MUSLIMS ONLY’ event—closed to the general public,” Abbott posted on X on Wednesday. “That’s religious discrimination. It’s unconstitutional. I signed HB 4211 into law—banning Muslim only no-go zones in Texas. The City must cancel the event and commit to never allowing something like it again by May 11th, or lose $530,000 in state grants. Let this be a lesson to local officials: Facilities funded by ALL taxpayers are not just for a subset of Texans.”
The city, prior to the cancellation, posted a message on its website.
“The City of Grand Prairie is aware of concerns that have been expressed about an upcoming private event at Epic Waters,” the statement reads. “The City has been in contact with the Epic Waters management team to ensure all policies and procedures have been followed. Epic Waters is owned by the City and managed by a third-party operator. Like other City-owned facilities, it is available for rental by individuals and organizations.”
Alvarez said earlier Wednesday in an email to The Epoch Times that the city reached out to Abbott’s office and was in discussions with the state government regarding the matter.
The third-party contractor did not respond to an email seeking comment.
Knight posted on the event’s website, “So if you are a friend of a different faith who wants to celebrate the Eid holiday with us and adhere to the modest dress code … this event is FOR YOU TOO!”
Knight continued: “DFW Epic Eid is a privately organized and privately funded event held through a standard rental of Epic Waters, just like many other private gatherings hosted at the park. This event was created to celebrate Eid al-Adha, one of the most important holidays in Islam, which commemorates faith, devotion, and gratitude. … In response to feedback, we have updated our materials to clearly reflect that this is a modest dress-only event, centered around a respectful and family-friendly environment.”
Mitch Little, a Republican Texas state representative, said in a video posted on Facebook that he learned the “Muslim-only” event had been held two previous times.
“I think this is a very serious civil rights violation that is going on here,” Little said in the video. “If you are making a public accommodation, whether it is a restaurant or a hotel or an entertainment venue like Epic Waters, you’re not permitted to exclude people on the basis of race, religion, etc. I think people are locally shocked at what is going on here.”
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Minnesota Democrats Unanimously Vote To Protect Rep. Ilhan Omar… And Dead Voters
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 03:10 PM
Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,
Minnesota Senate Democrats recently voted – unaminously – against removing deceased persons from the state’s voter rolls.
This tracks with the fact that almost 100% of dead people vote for Democrats, making them Democrats’ most loyal voting bloc, even surpassing that of serial killers.
(This may explain why, historically, Democrat gerrymandering seems designed to encompass as many cemeteries as possible. O.K., that is just an unfounded assertion, but it seems likely, does it not?)
The dead — and serial killers — are groups that vote heavily for Democrats? Talk about a symbiotic relationship! The latter provide the former! Genius! Kismet!
This after they also voted — unanimously — against an oversight committee effort to compel Rep. Ilhan Omar to testify after she missed a deadline to provide documents to the committee investigating the Somali fraud rampant in the North Star State.
So the multi-millionaire or poverty-stricken representative (take your pick) from Somalia escapes a subpoena, at least for now.
It is obvious that Democrats in Minnesota are as wedded to fraud as Ilhan once was to her brother. And for the same reason: they will do whatever it takes to attain and retain power, so help them Allah.
They share the same goals as well, at least for now: to fleece law-abiding taxpayers out of as much money as possible, so as to line their own pockets — and the pockets of those who help them attain and retain power.
In a sane country, at a sane moment in time, this would be considered an unethical, unacceptable, unconstitutional, illegal, and treasonous misuse of power, one that spits in the face of a representative democracy. Here today? Meh. Not good, but let’s not fly off the handle like our founders did. Tolerance and empathy, you see.
Democrats want as many illegals in the country as possible, because they vote for Democrats in droves. Why wouldn’t it be the same for dead folks? The more dead people, the more votes Democrats get. And, if the dead are erstwhile denizens of red states and rural areas, so much the better. Presto chango, a Republican has been converted into a Democrat! Remarkable!
This could explain Democrats’ love of abortion, medical assistance in dying, and violent criminals.
Our forefathers would have done whatever it took to counter this orgy of criminality.
Past mafia godfathers would be proud of it.
Today? Democrats like Tim Walz, Gavin Newsom, and J.B. Pritzker might accurately be called “fraudfathers.”
GREG HUNTER….
SEE YOU ON MONDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
