MAY 11//IRAN SIGNALS NO DEAL: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $2.80 TO $4718.00 BUT SILVER HAD A STELLAR DAY UP $5.10 TO $85.39//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $63.00 TO $2122.00 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $19.00 TO $1510.50//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM JESSE COLUMBO AND ALASDAIR MACLEOD//COMMODITY REPORT ON JET FUEL//ONE EUROPEAN REPORT TONIGHT FROM AUSTRIA//ISRAEL /USA VS IRAN: UPDATES //ISRAEL TBN//HEZBOLLAH UPDATES///OTHER MIDDLE EASTERN REPORT FROM IRAQ//HEALTH REPORT:REPORT ON THE HANTAVIRUS AND THE NOROVIRUS HIT ON ANOTHER CRUISELINER//MARK CRISPIN MILLER ON VACCINE INJURIES//MIKE EVERY OF RABOBANK REPORTS ON THE DAY’S EVENTS// USA DATA RELEASES//USA ECONOMIC REPORTS/KING NEWS/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWS MARTIN ARMSTRONG..//
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 11 118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 2 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 33 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 22 25 709 C BARCLAYS 50 905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 72 72 MONTH TO DATE 3754
JPMORGAN STOPPED 25/72
MAY 11
MAY COMEX MONTH
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2026: 72 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 7200 OZ or 0.2239 TONNES
total notices so far: 3754 contracts FOR 375400 OZ OR 11.6765 TONNES
FOR MAY 8
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 6 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.030 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5013 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 25.065 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP DOWN $2.80 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.515 TONNES INTO THE GLD..
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.995 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $5.10 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.995 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV //// : INVENTORY RESTS AT THE SLV AT 483.814 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.814 MILLION
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 635 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 99,958 STILL A TOUCH HIGHER FROM ITS NEW RECORD LOW OF 95,999 SET MAY 1. THE RECORD HIGH OI FOR SILVER IS 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.25 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. ON MAY 1,, WE REACHED OUR RECORD LOW OI OF 95,999 SURPASSING EVERY DAY NEW OI LOWS SET DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL 2026.
NOW ON A NET BASIS OUR SPECULATORS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO GOING LONG. THE FRBNY ON A NET BASIS IS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER TO OUR LONGS ALONG WITH SOME BULLION BANKS AND THEN A HUGE NUMBERS OF LONGS ,OUR CENTRAL BANKERS, TAKE THE LONG SIDE AND TENDER FOR PHYSICAL AT 4 PM EACH NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE HUGE SHORTFALL IN PHYSICAL SILVER IN LONDON THERE IS A LOTTERY TO SEE WHO GETS ANY OF THE PHYSICAL SILVER AVAILABLE THAT WHICH THEY ARE OBLIGATED TO DELIVER. THEY WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THEIR PHYSICAL METAL AND IF NOBODY GETS ANY THEY THEN COME BACK THE NEXT DAY AND SO ON. THIS IS IN LONDON, THE HOME OF PHYSICAL SILVER!!
WE ARE FINALLY MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE IN SILVER PRICING AT MAJOR SUPPORT LEVEL OF $70.00. SHORTLY WE WILL AGAIN ATTEMPT TO BREAK
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1153 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A VERY STRONG SIZED 650 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY TRADING/// (MONTHLY SPREADERS WHICH BEGAN OPERATIONS DURING THE WEEK OF APRIL 24, FINISHED THEIR DUTY AT MONTH’S END).. WE HAD A HUGE 866 CONTRACT T.A.S. ISSUANCE!! / THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TODAY TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $100.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON friDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE
THE PRICE STILL FINISHED ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $70.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE BUT STILL BELOW THE $100.00 MARK CLOSING AT $80.29 UP $1.25. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING HAVING MANY HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES // TODAY’S WAS A HUGE SIZED 866 T.A.S. CONTRACTS !!. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING ABOVE THE 100.00 DOLLAR MARK!! AND NOW THE HUGE SUPPORT LEVEL OF 70 DOLLARS!!.MAMMOTH SIZE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE BECOMING THE NORM AT THE COMEX NOW!!
THERE IS NO NEXT LINE IN THE SAND ONCE THE 100.00 DOLLAR SILVER IS PIERCED AGAIN. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 650 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 866 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING//AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE.
IN ESSENCE WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 1285 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.25. WE HAD HUGE GOVERNMENT (FRBY) COMEX CONTRACTS TRADING ALL WEEK AND A MAJOR PORTION WILL BE REMOVED BY DAYS END. (I RECORD THIS FOR YOU ON A DAILY BASIS). THE STICKY SPECULATOR LONGS STILL REMAIN STOIC
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.
THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, THROUGHOUT MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING: A HUGE SIZED 866 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THESE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED FRBNY BANKERS).
THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS AS ONE UNIT, BUT SELL THE SHORT SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE LONG SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS NOW ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACTS OR 0.005 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY OUR SMALL QUEUE JUMP OF 7 CONTRACTS FOR 35,000 OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 29.855 MILLION OZ/.//
SUMMARY OF OUR MAY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
WE HAD:
/ STRONG COMEX OI GAIN+// VERY STRONG SIZED 659 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS (/ VI) A HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1492 CONTRACTS
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:ADDED 132 SILVER CONTRACT//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY.. ACCUMULATION
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 7 DAY(S), total 3016 contracts: OR 15.080 MILLION OZ (430 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 15.080 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 15.050 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 635 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.25 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE 650 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY, AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS).
INITIAL STANDING: 31.495 MILLION OZ NOW INCREASES WITH OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 7 CONTRACTS OR 35,000 OZ//NEW STANDING IS THUS ADVANCED TO 29.855 MILLION OZ/
LAST 14 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 7 CONTRACTS/35,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 29.855 MILLION OZ//
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FOR TODAY (866) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING!
WE HAD 6 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.030 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY BANKERS
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2616 OI CONTRACTS DOWN TO 371,349 OI ADVANCING FROM ITS ALL TIME LOW OF 354,581 OI AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE HAVE NOW ADVANCED PAST THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS OF 357,136 SET APRIL 2/.2026. WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAY FROM OUR TWO DECADES OLD: 390,000 CONTRACTS LOW SET IN THE YEAR OF 2001 WITH TRADING FOR GOLD AT $260.00. THUS DURING EARLY APRIL WE HAD AN ALL TIME LOW OI IN COMEX (354,531) BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE COMEX SHIP, NOBODY WANT TO PLAY IN THIS CROOKED CASINO!! (AND THIS CORRELATES WITH SILVER’S LOW OI OF 99,399 CONTRACTS WITH A MUCH HIGHER SILVER PRICE BASE)
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 7784 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A FAIR LOSS IN COMEX OI (2616 ONTRACTS) . THIS LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $22.00 //FRIDAY///.
LAST 13 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES: (MAY 2025 THROUGH TO /MAY 2026)
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
2 JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
3.JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 27800 OZ/ (0.8646 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 63 CONTRACTS OR 6300 OZ (.1959 TONNES)/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 14.202 TONNES OF GOLD.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING MAY. GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 600 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT A LOW OF 371,349 ADVANCING FROM OUR RECORD LOW OF 354,581 AND WE NOW WITNESSING A LOWER COMEX OI BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH
SILVER ALSO HAS AN ULTRA SMALL SIZED AND EXTREMELY LOW COMEX OI OF 99,958 ONTRACTS// FALLING FROM PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS SET DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN COMEX GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2,616 CONTRACTS WITH 2616 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 600 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2016 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A MEGA HUGE SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 11,900 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON.
GOLD PRICE ON FRIDAY ROSE BY $22.00
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(600 ) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OF 2,616 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES 2016 CONTRACTS!!
WE HAVE 1) NOW REVERTED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKER (FRBNY) GOING ON THE SHORT SIDE AND SOME NEWBIE SPECULATORS GOING TO THE LONG SIDE BUT OTHER SPECS GOING ALSO TO THE SHORT SIDE LED BY THE NOSE BY HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS AND SPREADERS..
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 63 CONTRACTS/6300 OZ// 0.1959 TONNES//NEW STANDING IS NOW ADVANCES TO 14.202 TONNES
3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND SOME GOVT LIQUIDATION // WITH A STRONG GAIN OF EQUITY SHARES/MAY 7 HAVING 1)A $22.00COMEX PRICE GAIN AND WE HAD 2) SPEC LONGS PILING HUGELY ON THE SHORT SIDE// +3. EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ALSO PILING INTO THE LONG SIDE. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2016 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND AS WELL A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN MAY. (14.202 TONNES). //, CENTRAL BANKERS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL WITH THEIR PURCHASES OF CONTRACTS../ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4)A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) V) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD(600) AND 6. A MEGA HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE (11,900) FOR RAID PURPOSES
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 8971 CONTRACTS OR 897,100 OZ OR 29.903 TONNES IN 7TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1282 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN7 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 29.903 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2025, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 29.903 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.842% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2023 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2024: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES
2025: AND NOW 2026
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 29.903 TONNES
SPREADERS:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG 635 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 99,958 ADVANCING A BIT FROM ITS ALL TIME LOW SET MAY 1.
EFP ISSUANCE 650 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 650 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 635 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 650 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1285 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.25
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 6.425 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $1.25
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MAY 11 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 45.07 PTS OR 1.08%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 13.13 PTS OR 0.05%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 365.65 PTS OR 0.49%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.02%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7963
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7947 Oil UP TO 97.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 103.95 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP (6.7963) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7943 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 2616 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 371,349 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET LATE LAST MONTH AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING FRIDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE BUT ALSO SOME SPECULATORS STILL GOING TO THE SHORT SIDE WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPECULATORS WHO CONTINUALLY GO TO THE SHORT SIDE AND AND OF COURSE THEY WILL BE ANNHILATED ON CENTRAL BANK COMMAND!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS APRIL CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $15.50).
WE THUS HAD A FAIR SIZED LSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 2,016 CONTRACTS (OR 6.270 TONNES) WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A SMALL CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.EQUATING TO 600 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF ZERO CONTRACTS FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD TOTALLING 0 CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK YESTERDAY MAY 7. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: ONE ISSUANCE SO FAR FOR 109 CONTRACTS OR 10,900 OZ OR 0.3390 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: ONE ISSUANCE SO FAR FOR 109 CONTRACTS, 10900 OZ OR 0.3390 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MAY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2,016 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE ($22.00). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MAY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A HUGE SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 11,900 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT IS NOW IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK DURING LONDON COMEX AND LBMA/OTC OPTION EXPIRY WEEK!! (INITIAL MAY CONTRACT MONTH)
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS FIRST ISSUANCE FOR 0.3390 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 6300 OZ (.1959 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 10,900 OZ OR 0.3390 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 14.202 TONNESS
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MAY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $22.00)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI //
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $22,00
WE HAD 7784 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 2016 CONTRACTS OR 201,600 OZ OR 6.270 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3754 notices 375,400 oz 11.6765 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 1
ENTRIES; 1
i) Manfra 59,196,234 oz
(1.900 tonnes)
xxxx
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI STANDS AT 775 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 156 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 219 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED ANOTHER STRONG 63 CONTRACTS OR 6,300 OZ (0.1959 TONNES) UNDEREWENT A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI LOST BY 11,413 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 232,013
JULY LOST 37 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 1103.
We had 72 contracts filed for today representing 7200oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 72 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 25 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3,754) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (XXX CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 72 x 100 oz per contract) equals 440,400 OZ OR (13.698 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our first exchange for risk issuance for 10,900 oz or 0.3390 tonnes//new standing for gold/May again advances to 14.037 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3,754) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(775 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 72 x 100 oz per contract) equals 445,700 OZ OR (13.863 Tonnes of gold) plus we must add our first exchange for risk issuance of 10,900 oz or 0.3390 tonnes/new standing advances to 14.202 tonness
new total of gold standing in MAY ADVANCES TO 14.202 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY 14.202 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
confirmed volume FRIDAY confirmed 156.326// poor// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
the number provided do not match from yesterday!!!
total pledged gold: 1,941,375.509 oz 60.884 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,941,375 tonnes oz 60.884 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 29,078,686,041oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,827,899.555 OZ 492.314 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 13,230,786,486 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,886,524 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
431.92 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 11
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
2 entries
i) CNT 491,163.830 oz ii) Out of Loomis: 302,503,100 oz
total withdrawal: 793,646.930 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
0 entries
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Loomis: 590,606.840 oz
total deposit 590,606.840 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
6 CONTRACT(S) (0.030 MILLION OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
958 Contracts (4.780 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5013 contracts 25.065 MILLION oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Loomis: 590,606.840 oz
total deposit 590,606.840 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) CNT 491,163.830 oz ii) Out of Loomis: 302,503,100 oz
total withdrawal: 793,646.930 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments:2 customer to dealer
a) Asahi: 20,116.75 oz
b) Manfra 26,294.465 ooz
FRIDAY volume: 59,420 oz// AWFUL
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 79.884 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 312.116 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2026 OI: 964 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 2 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 9 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 7 CONTRACTS OR 35,000 OZ AS THESE BOYS ENTERTAINED A SMALL QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 128 CONTRACTS UP TO 2631 OI CONTRACTS
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 406 CONTRACTS UP TO 74,988 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 9 or 45,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume FRIDAY; 45.949 poor
AND NOW MAY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5013 X5,000 oz = 25.065 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (964) AND the number of notices served upon today (6 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2026 contract month: (5013 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (964) minus number of notices served upon today (6)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY..contract month equating to 29.855 MILLION OZ.+
NEW STANDING ADVANCES T0: 29.855 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 79.884 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 140.287/312.116 million: 44.92
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAY 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.515 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.995 TONNES
MAY 8 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.283 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.480TONNES
MAY 7 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.853 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.197TONNES
MAY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $124.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.718 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.05TONNES
MAY 5 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 4 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $106.65 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
APRIL 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.142 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.195 TONNES
APRIL 29/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $45.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 28/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $85.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 27/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.91 TONNES
APRIL 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP 26.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 11.90TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.783 TONNES
APRIL 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.289 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.478 TONNES
APRIL 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $83.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.714 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.192 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 1/2026/WITH GOLD UP $134.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.276 TONNES
MAR 31/2026/WITH GOLD UP $119.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.133 TONNES
MAR 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.143 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.562
MAR 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $213.05 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.580 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42
MAR 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $155.30 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.000
MAR 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.286 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $165.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.149 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.991
MAR 20/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $39,55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.855 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.135
MAR 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.99
MAR 18/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $111.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.564 TONNES
MAR 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 0.857 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.708 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1033.995 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
MAY 11 WITH SILVER UP $5.10: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.995 MILLION OZ OF SILVER PUT OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.814 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.689 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.809 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.26: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $3.75: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.724 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.21: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.05: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP $2.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.905 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.338 MILLION OZ
APRIL 30 WITH SILVER UP $2.03: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.991 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.243MILLION OZ
APRIL 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.95: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.39: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 24 WITH SILVER UP 0.92: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,23MILLION OZ
APRIL 23WITH SILVER DOWN $2.35: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.489 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488,773MILLION OZ
APRIL 22 WITH SILVER UP 1.43: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262MILLION OZ
aPRIL 21 WITH SILVER DOWN 3.71: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17 WITH SILVER UP $3.09: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.900 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.132 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.477 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.01: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.588 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.579 MILLION OZ
APRIL 14 WITH SILVER UP $3.99: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.589 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.624 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND WITHDRAWAL OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.079 MILLION OZ
MAR 31 WITH SILVER UP $4.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.532 MILLION OZ
MAR 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.74: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.75: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.15: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 10.505 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.92: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.490 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $6.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9444 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.761 MILLION OZ
MAR 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.36: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.792 MILLION OZ.
MAR 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.705 MILLION OZ.
The fiat currency world is dying. Sound money based on gold is returning to Asia as the US loses influence. The implications are for far higher gold, silver, and commodity prices.
“The consequences of the US being forced out of the Persian Gulf for dollar prices in gold, silver, and the entire commodity complex will almost certainly be dramatic. After all, you cannot remove faith in pax Americana without undermining its currency, probably fatally.”
The big picture
Halford Mackinder’s geopolitical vision in 1905 is finally coming true. The main partners in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation — China, Russia, and Iran — are finally working together to defeat their enemies in Mackinder’s marginal and insular crescents.
All the signs are there. Wars on the ground are not going America’s and Western Europe’s way. The U.S. is abandoning its European NATO allies in their fight against Russia over Eastern Ukraine to concentrate her depleted weapon stocks on the war alongside Israel against Iran. Clueless European leaders are left fully exposed to their political delusions and are trying to groupthink their way toward answers.
Meanwhile, not only has America badly miscalculated its war against Iran, but cutting through the propaganda we now find that her allies in the region are changing sides to save their own skins. As always impulsive in foreign affairs, the Americans now find themselves trapped in a conflict from which they cannot back down. To do so would be disastrous for the president ahead of the mid-terms and an abandoned Israel surrounded by angry enemies faces extinction.
Furthermore, the economic destruction to Western and emerging economies is immense, but Russia and Iran are benefiting from higher oil prices. To escalate the war into a double-or-quits attack on Iran will almost certainly fail, given Iran’s advanced missile technology and accumulated weaponry yet to be deployed.
The geopolitical consequences of Europe’s exposed impotence as a force and the U.S.’s almost certain defeat and expulsion from the Gulf region leaves the entire Asian and East European continent in the partnership of four huge nations: China, Russia, Iran, and India. It is a partnership yet to be fully forged, because India is still sitting on the fence because she has been slow to reduce her trade dependence on the U.S. and Europe. But with the defeat of U.S. forces and their expulsion from the Persian Gulf that will change. And the fate of the entire land mass will be in the hands of Mackinder’s hegemons.
So what are their plans?
Unlike the European and American partnership whose democracy has led to societal failure and debilitating interventions in everyone else’s affairs, China and Russia and their SCO and BRICS partnerships are primarily focused on trade. Western sanctions and U.S. tariffs have driven the Asian partnership away from depending on U.S. and European markets for commodities and goods exports. This also means that for them the roles of the dollar, pound, and euro are diminishing in favour of their own currencies. The principal ones are China’s renminbi and Russia’s rouble, which since the start of the Trump presidency have been remarkably strong:
The low point coincided neatly with Trump’s inauguration. It should be noted that the strength of these two currencies does not reflect an improvement in their purchasing power but an accelerating decline in the dollar. There can be no better indication of the failure of the fiat dollar and allied currencies. It also explains why China’s fear as global currencies adjust to hegemonic realities is a collapse of the dollar. If the dollar collapses, the entire fiat currency system will end with it, and China and Russia will need to protect their own currencies from this outcome.
There are two elements to consider. The first is China must follow Russia in selling off all her dollar and euro exposures. Already, China advised her pension funds and insurance companies to reduce their dollar exposure, indicating that China’s state is doing so as well. And where China goes in monetary policy, all her SCO and BRICS partners follow. The selling of dollars is behind Asia’s accumulation of gold and physical commodities such as silver.
The second element will be for China and Russia to anchor their currencies to gold to prevent them following the dollar into a currency collapse. Both nations have substantial quantities of gold, both in their official and hidden reserves, to turn their currencies into gold substitutes from being fiat currencies dependent on faith in the issuer.
Conclusion
All our attention is currency-focused on the progress, or lack of it, in wars against Iran and in Ukraine against Russia. Reliable intelligence as opposed to Western propaganda clearly indicates that these are lost causes, an outcome rapidly coming to a head. The geopolitical consequences are being ignored in currency markets. Already, U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf see the writing on the wall and are shifting their allegiances in recognition of facts on the ground. When the campaign against Iran finally fails, which is likely to be very soon, the sudden shift in geopolitical power will likely trigger a matching shift in currency values to the detriment of the fiat dollar and its aligned currencies.
The consequences for dollar prices in gold, silver, and the entire commodity complex will almost certainly be dramatic. After all, you cannot remove faith in pax Americana without undermining its currency, probably fatally.
JESSE COLUMBO\
This is a post from Jesse Colombo’s The Bubble Bubble Report—a bestselling newsletter focusing on precious metals investing and global economic risks. We specialize in detailed reports and analyses.
Early last week, I wrote a piece titled “Counting Down to Silver’s Next Major Breakout,” in which I showed how a triangle consolidation pattern had formed over the past few months and explained that a breakout from it should kick off the next phase of the bull market, taking silver to fresh all-time highs and into the high $100s thereafter. In the past couple of trading sessions, silver has broken out of that pattern, so in today’s update I want to show what I’m now watching for further confirmation.
Let’s start with the daily chart of silver to examine the triangle pattern and Friday’s breakout. As you can see, silver has clearly broken above the downtrend line connecting the late-February and mid-April peaks, signaling an important bullish change in trend.
Now that silver has broken above that downtrend line, I’m watching three additional major hurdles: the $80 to $85 resistance zone, $95 to $100, and finally $115 to $120. Breakouts above horizontal resistance levels and zones are more reliable than breakouts above diagonal resistance lines like the top of the triangle pattern, so I would like to see those zones surpassed for added assurance.
To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).
I would like to see silver close decisively above each resistance zone, and with each successive breakout, the odds of the next powerful leg higher will increase significantly. The final breakout above the $115 to $120 zone, which formed at the late-January peak, is the most important, as it would signal that silver has once again entered blue-sky territory and that the correction of the past few months is fully behind it.
A look at silver’s weekly log-scale chart puts the triangle pattern of the past few months into clearer perspective. Triangles like this typically act as continuation patterns within a bull market, so breakouts from them usually lead to much further gains.
As I’ve previously explained, silver’s correction over the past few months was necessary to flush out excessive bullish speculative sentiment and overbought conditions, and now that it is no longer overbought, it is in a much healthier position for the bull market to resume:
Lending further credence to silver’s nascent breakout is the bullish price action in copper, which, as I recently explained, has been capped beneath the $6 to $6.50 resistance zone as pressure continues to build.
In last week’s trading, COMEX copper futures pushed into this resistance zone and appear poised to break through. Assuming that occurs, it would be a highly bullish signal for both copper and silver, as the two metals are closely correlated.
If you’d like to follow this setup on your own, you can use this free chart from Finviz.
Another highly bullish signal is the recent breakdown in the gold-to-silver ratio from the triangle pattern that formed over the past few months. As a reminder, when this ratio declines, it means silver is outperforming gold, and that typically occurs when precious metals bull markets heat up, as silver tends to trade like a high-beta, or leveraged, version of gold.
Interestingly, Bank of America’s recent projection of silver soaring to $135 to $309 by year-end is based on a sharp decline in the gold-to-silver ratio, making the ratio’s breakdown from its triangle pattern especially worth paying attention to.
A successful bullish breakout in silver would also be very bullish for silver mining stocks and their exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In addition to the key levels I’m watching in silver mentioned earlier, I am closely monitoring the $100 to $105 and $115 to $120 resistance zones in the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) to determine whether the next leg of the bull market in silver mining stocks has begun.
I’m also monitoring the $32 to $34 and $40 to $42 resistance zone in the SILJ junior silver miners ETF, which I use as a proxy for the junior silver mining sector:
To conclude, I’m encouraged by silver’s breakout from the triangle pattern that formed over the past few months, especially as it is accompanied by a breakdown in the gold-to-silver ratio and bullish price action in copper. I am now watching silver’s three overhead resistance zones closely, as clearing each one would significantly increase the odds that the next leg of the bull market has begun.
If you enjoyed today’s update, I recommend checking out my other related reports:
Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.
All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.
JOHN RUBINO
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
4.ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 271 and 270
MUST VIEW…
LONDON PAUL//MUST VIEW
5. COMMODITY REPORT/FERTILIZER:
Global Fertilizer Shortage Means Spring Planting Season Disaster In The Northern Hemisphere
Nobody is going to be able to save the spring planting season in the northern hemisphere now, and that is really bad news because according to the UN the number of people in the world experiencing acute hunger was already at an all-time high even before the war began. A historic global food crisis has been escalating for years, and now farmers all over the northern hemisphere either can’t get the nitrogen fertilizer that they desperately need or they are paying much more for it. As a result, global food prices will start rising dramatically once harvest season rolls around, and in many impoverished nations there simply won’t be enough food for everyone.
During normal times, approximately one-third of all globally-traded nitrogen fertilizer travels through the Strait of Hormuz, but right now it can’t get out of the Persian Gulf thanks to the Iranians. Unfortunately, if that nitrogen fertilizer doesn’t get into the hands of farmers in the northern hemisphere within a certain period of time they will completely miss the application window…
The Hormuz Strait carries roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade. If farmers miss the application window, no amount of catch-up planting can recover the loss. The International Grains Council estimates cumulative global wheat and coarse grain output could fall 53 million tons below last season, a shortfall larger than Ukraine’s entire annual grain export volume in a typical year.
According to a former co-chair of the White House’s Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force, the spring fertilizer application window in the northern hemisphere ends next month…
Spring fertilizer application in the Northern Hemisphere runs through June. Parts of Africa are entering the primary planting season now — a critical window for the continent’s most food-insecure populations. A missed window doesn’t delay a harvest — it eliminates it. The shortfall will be invisible until it materializes in spiking prices and empty shelves next fall.
This is the story the Hormuz blockade coverage is missing. The crisis isn’t just raising energy prices — it is breaking food supply chains. The world is facing a slow-motion catastrophe that will not announce itself until it is too late.
That last sentence is so true.
We really are facing a slow-motion catastrophe.
For example, we are being told that fertilizer shortages and high fuel costs have created a “critical threat” to global rice supplies…
Global rice supplies are facing a critical threat this year as farmers across Asia have been forced to reduce planting due to fertilizer shortages and soaring fuel costs, issues exacerbated by the ongoing Iran war. This situation is compounded by the emerging El Nino effect, which is anticipated to further tighten global rice output.
Rice is central to global food security, and even slight disruptions in supply can have wide-ranging effects. Experts warn that rising prices could pressure household budgets, especially in price-sensitive regions like Asia and Africa.
A lot less rice is going to be grown this year.
Meanwhile, the global population continues to grow.
So who is going to have enough rice to eat?
It won’t be the poor.
The wealthy will buy up whatever is available, and it will be at significantly higher prices.
There are close to 1.6 billion people living in Africa, and we are being warned that they will soon be facing soaring prices and food shortages…
The Iran war could have “dramatic consequences”, causing food shortages and price rises in some of Africa’s poorest and most vulnerable communities, the head of the world’s largest fertiliser company has said.
Svein Tore Holsether, the chief executive of Yara International, said world leaders needed to guard against soaring prices and shortages of fertiliser causing a de facto global auction that would leave the poorest countries, particularly in Africa, scrambling for supplies they could ill afford.
Here in the United States, food will still be available.
Farmers have already begun to feel the effects, with rising fertilizer costs and shortages in supply.
The effects of the global conflict are being felt all over Ohio, Bales said. They have taken a large toll on areas such as north central Ohio and western Ohio, where a large amount of row cropping occurs.
“(Between the) double whammy of fertilizer and fuel, that is definitely going to make some tough decisions going forward,” said Bales.
This crisis is going to hit us a lot harder than most people realize.
One recent survey discovered that a whopping 70 percent of all U.S. farmers are unable to afford all the fertilizer that they need this year…
The result is wreaking havoc on farmers. An agricultural lobbying group, the American Farm Bureau Federation, ran a survey and found that 70% of farmers couldn’t afford all the fertilizer they needed.
“Fertilizer pre-booking rates varied significantly by region, with just 19% of Southern producers reporting fertilizer purchases secured ahead of the season, compared to 30% in the Northeast, 31% in the West and 67% in the Midwest, reflecting differences in planting decision timelines and exposure to recent price increases,” the AFBF wrote. Farm diesel prices, which fuel the heavy machinery used in the industry (other than small-scale farms that don’t produce the majority of food crops in the country) are up 46% since the end of February, according to the organizations.
We have never been through anything like this.
Some farmers have decided to switch to crops that require less fertilizer, and some farmers have decided not to plant at all this season.
In fact, the number of acres of wheat that U.S. farmers are planting this spring will be the fewest that we have seen “since record keeping began in 1919”.
If the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, and there is no way that is going to happen, it would take weeks for cargo vessels to reach their destinations.
“Even if the strait reopens, it will take weeks to bring the plants back online and get them running efficiently … it could be months before supply chains normalize,” the United States House Agriculture Committee wrote in a letter to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
At this point, there is no saving the spring planting season in the northern hemisphere.
It is going to be a disaster.
Meanwhile, 60 different nations have implemented emergency energy policies within the past two months…
We desperately need the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened.
But the Iranians are telling us that this is going to be how it is from now on.
They are in full control of the Strait, and it appears that they just attacked yet another cargo ship…
A cargo ship was struck by multiple small craft while sailing near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, UK military officials said.
The ship, which was not immediately identified, was hit right off the coast of Sirik, Iran, just east of the strait, according to the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre.
We are still in the very early stages of this nightmare.
If Iran holds the global economy hostage for an extended period of time, we will see economic chaos that is unlike anything we have ever seen before.
But for now most people in the western world are not taking this crisis seriously enough, because they are convinced that it is just a temporary bump in the road.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 45.07 PTS OR 1.08%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 13.13 PTS OR 0.05%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 365.65 PTS OR 0.49%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.02%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7963
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7947 Oil UP TO 97.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 103.95 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP (6.7963) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7943 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7963
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7947
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 13.13 PTS OR 0.05%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 99.34 PTS OR 0.16%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 80.38
BRENT; 103.95
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 97,87/// EURO FALLS TO 1.1769 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.523 UP 6 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 157.13… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.771 UP 6 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.7963 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7947
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.0276// Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.778// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.448%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.709%
3j Gold at $4665/90 //Silver at: 80.38 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 25/ 100 roubles/74.39
3m oil (WTI) into the 94 dollar handle for WTI and 100 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.13 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.5233% UP 5 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.771 UP 6 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7785 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9166
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.3913 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.968 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9265 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.38 UP 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.9870 UP 7 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.667 UP 9 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.517 UP 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.168 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Flat, Oil Jumps After Iran Peace Talks Break Down
Monday, May 11, 2026 – 08:35 AM
US equity futures are off a touch as the US/IranIran failed to consummate a deal, which is boosting Energy commodities and bond yields. Still, stocks have withstood the resulting increase in oil prices and higher bond yields as the market remains focused on the memory/semi stock bubble. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures are down fractionally as Trump and Iran rejected each other’s latest peace proposals to end the 10-week conflict as the two sides struggle to maintain a fragile ceasefire. In premarket trading, semis are bid again after surging to a record high on Friday, Mag7 are mostly lower as early action points to Defensive positioning with Energy plays acting as a long hedge. European stocks are lower, reversing earlier gains in Asia, there driven by the AI Theme / Memory as Korean indices added 4-5%, and were briefly halted at the +5% trigger. Bond yields higher across the world on fears of an oil-driven inflation shock and expectations of central banks tightening monetary policy. The 10-year Treasury rate rose four basis points to 4.39%. The dollar edged 0.1% higher, while gold dipped below $4,700 an ounce. In commodities, the Energy complex is leading but WTI remains below $100/bbl, and off session highs, silver is outpacing gold as base metals are bid, and Ags are mixed. Today’s macro data focus is on existing home sales (10am ET) before kicking off a data-heavy week highlights by CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. Fed speaker slate empty for the session.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower:Apple +0.2%, Meta -0.6%, Microsoft -0.8%, Amazon -0.6%, Nvidia -0.5%, Alphabet -0.9%, Tesla -0.6%
Semiconductor stocks are rising, set to extend gains, after many chip stocks closed at record highs on Friday. The latest surge is boosted by continued investor enthusiasm over AI infrastructure build-outs. Among notable movers: Intel (INTC +6%), Micron (MU +5%)
Babcock & Wilcox (BW) rises 12% after the power equipment company reported revenue that grew 44% year-over-year in the first quarter, as well as adjusted Ebitda that nearly quadrupled.
Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH) rises 22% as people familiar with the matter say Dream Finders Homes Inc. is close to announcing a $704 million offer to acquire the rival homebuilder.
Certara (CERT) slips 5% after the biotech company cut its adjusted earnings forecast for the full year. The firm also posted adjusted profit for the first quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
Liquidia (LQDA) rises 7% after the drugmaker posted revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
Lumentum (LITE) rises 4% after Nasdaq announced that the stock will join the Nasdaq 100 Index, replacing CoStar Group. prior to the market open on May 18.
Moderna (MRNA) rises 8% in the wake of Friday’s 12% rally after the company said last week it’s researching vaccines to protect against hantaviruses.
Monday.com (MNDY) soars 25% after the software company raised its full-year forecast for both revenue and adjusted operating profits. It also reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
Mosaic (MOS) falls 3% after forecasting phosphates sales volumes for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
Target Hospitality (TH) gains 11% after the provider of modular housing boosted its year sales forecast.
Global equities are trading at record highs following a narrow tech-led rally that’s been driven by strong earnings and resurgent optimism around artificial intelligence, even as the war continues. This week, investors will be watching Trump’s visit to China’s Xi Jinping to see whether they can influence the situation surrounding the conflict.
The high in stock markets “does make sense,” Grace Peters, global head of investment strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, told Bloomberg TV. “The underlying driver is more capex being spent. That’s not just associated with the AI buildout, but governments directing capital and companies following suit.”
The modest moves in futures signal traders are pausing for breath after 6 straight weeks higher, as they break down the latest Iran war news before a spate of key economic readings. With most of the earnings season in the rear-view mirror, much of the focus this week is on the CPI print Tuesday, Wednesday’s PPI numbers and retail sales on Thursday. Bloomberg Economics expects April CPI to moderate from March’s strong pace to a monthly increase of 0.6% – still pretty hot. Core CPI should also be elevated, but not because of the Iran war or tariffs. In fact, many tariff-related goods have seen deflation. Rather, core strength will be driven by a rectification of the artificial understatement in shelter CPI from the government shutdown last October.
“The market melt-up driven by robust earnings, AI enthusiasm and hopes for a short-lived energy shock faces a tougher test in the week ahead,” according to Laura Cooper, head of macro credit at Nuveen. “Hotter US inflation could push yields higher, while weaker retail sales may begin to reveal the impact of higher gas prices on consumers,” she added.
The oil market is in “a race against time” as the factors that combined to curb price rises from the Iran war stand to come under strain if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed into June, according to Morgan Stanley. Still, Bloomberg lists four “shock absorbers” that can help prevent crude reaching $200 per barrel.
Turning to the only driver for stocks, AI is increasingly “eating the global earnings cycle,” notes Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Izabella Wieckowska. A narrow group of AI-linked companies is doing much of the heavy lifting for global profit growth while large parts of the broader market struggle to keep pace. Meanwhile, BI’s scenario shows a 32% surge in 2026 AI-driven demand for electrical infrastructure to reach $117 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 18%. The narrowing trend within the stock market is likely to sustain moving forward, according to Citi strategists, who have upgraded US stocks to an overweight. The first-quarter earnings season shows an ongoing shift in corporate spending priorities to capex from buybacks, according to Goldman Sachs strategists.
Meanwhile, a multi-asset Pictet fund has sharply raised its equity exposure, shifting as much as 30% of its cash-equivalent holdings into AI heavyweights across Asia and the US. With the Kospi index surging to new highs on Monday, equity-derivatives strategists are increasingly recommending trades to bet on more gains in tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan markets. Strategists at Societe Generale note the 12‑month variance spread between the Kospi 200 and S&P 500 has reached extreme levels.
In private credit, a recent wave of investor redemption requests across the $1.8 trillion market for private credit prompted Blackstone to enlist senior executives in putting up capital to bolster its flagship fund.
Taking a look at the waning earnings season, of the 446 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far, 83% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while 11% have missed. Barrick Mining and Constellation Energy are among companies expected to report results before the market open. Barrick Mining’s gold output could fall for the fifth straight quarter to 680,000 ounces, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bloomberg Intelligence projects this quarter will be its weakest gold production level in 2026, as the company resets its operating model. Simon Property and Him & Hers Health follow later in the day.
European stocks fall as an impasse in the Middle East conflict lifted oil prices and bond yields. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.2% to 611.12; Telecoms and banks outperform, consumer and retail sectors lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:
Novo Nordisk shares gain as much as 5.5% to DKK306.15 after Citi analysts note the “impressive” Wegovy pill launch and increase their price target on the stock.
Verisure gains as much as 3.6% after Bank of America upgraded its rating on the home-security firm to buy from neutral. BofA says the valuation “looks compelling” after recent share declines, praising the company’s premium subscription-based business model in structurally underpenetrated markets.
Compass shares rise as much as 5.4% as the contract catering group delivers interim results described by analysts as “solid,” “sound” and “encouraging.”
Genmab climbs as much as 2.7% after Jefferies analysts say share-price weakness after the 1Q results seems “overdone.”
DiaSorin shares rise as much as 9.2%, the most in almost three years, after the health care company reported earnings ahead of expectations in the first quarter and reiterated its guidance for the full year. Analysts said the intact guidance is a positive surprise, with all eyes now turning to the upcoming capital markets day on May 20.
Asos shares rise as much as 14% after the online clothing retailer agreed to sell its Lichfield fulfillment center to Marks & Spencer Group, which will lead to a significant one-off pretax profit. JPMorgan said the positive reaction is because investors were not anticipating material proceeds from the sale. It lifted its price target on the stock.
Renault shares fall as much as 4% while Stellantis drops as much as 1.5% as Bank of America downgrades the carmakers due to competition from Chinese electric vehicles.
European Defense shares fall on speculation that a weekend ceasefire in Ukraine, and reported remarks by Russian President Putin, could indicate that the war may be nearing its conclusion.
Hannover Re shared drop as much as 3.4% as the German reinsurer reported a miss in P&C Re revenues despite strong April renewals.
Victrex shares fall as much as 7% on the thermoplastic company’s first-half loss following an impairment against its manufacturing facility in China. The company’s full-year earnings guidance also fell short of consensus, according to analysts.
Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia rose, with South Korea leading a rally in tech shares as focus shifts back to artificial intelligence demand. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6%, with Korean memory chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung among the biggest boosts. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi jumped 4.3% to a record. Investors are factoring in strong earnings for the region’s hardware makers on the AI buildout, with recent results from major tech firms indicating continued big spending. That’s helping propel continued gains in tech-heavy Asian markets, offsetting lingering concerns over the war in the Middle East. Stocks also gained Monday in Taiwan, mainland China and the Philippines, while equities fell in Australia and Indonesia. Shares also slipped in India, after Prime Minister Modi urged citizens to conserve fuel and curb costly oil imports.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded 0.1% up on Monday; Bloomberg dollar gauge rose with Treasury yields as the US and Iran remain far apart on a framework to end the war, keeping oil prices elevated. The Canadian currency was among best performers in the Group of 10 against the greenback. EUR/USD traded down 0.1%. The European Central Bank will raise interest rates twice this year as the Iran war drives inflation higher, a Bloomberg survey showed. GBP/USD falls 0.2% to 1.3604. UK prime minister Keir Starmer said he would contest any leadership challenge, as he battled to save his premiership in a speech that appeared to do little to subdue the rebellions brewing within his party. US data Monday include April existing home sales
In rates, treasuries hold losses following gap lower at the Asia open and steady trading through London morning, leaving yields 3bp to 4bp cheaper across the curve. US 10-year near 4.39% is 3.7bp higher on the day with UK counterpart up about 6bp from Friday’s close; Treasury curve spreads are mostly flatter, 5s30s by 1bp. Oil prices are higher amid Middle East war impasse, and gilts underperform Treasuries and bunds with UK’s Starmer set to speak in a last-ditch effort to save his premiership. Treasury quarterly refunding auctions begin with 3-year note sale at 1pm New York time. Treasury’s $58 billion 3-year note auction precedes $42 billion 10-year and $25 billion 30-year new issues Tuesday and Wednesday. WI 3-year yield near 3.95% is 5.3bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which stopped through by 1.2bp, a strong result. IG dollar issuance slate includes four deals so far, and dealers anticipate a busy week totaling about $50 billion, much of it Monday ahead of CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday) releases
Today’s economic data slate includes April existing home sales at 10am. Fed speaker slate empty for the session.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini little changed
Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
DAX -0.2%
CAC 40 -1%
10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.38%
VIX +0.9 points at 18.12
Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1189.37
euro -0.1% at $1.1771
WTI crude +2.3% at $97.64/barrel
Top Overnight News
The US and Iran wrangled over terms to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump called Tehran’s reply to his proposed peace plan “totally unacceptable.” BBG
China confirms US President Trump’s visit to China on May 13th-15th: Xinhua
In an interview airing Sunday on 60 Minutes, Israel’s Netanyahu says Iran war is “not over” until highly enriched uranium is removed. Benjamin Netanyahu told CBS he wants to end the US’s $3.8 billion a year in military aid to Israel over the next decade. CBS
Trump will press Xi Jinping over China’s approach to Iran and hammer out details on a new board of trade when they meet later this week, senior US officials said. BBG
China’s factory-gate inflation neared a four-year high in April, continuing a reversal from a long period of deflation as war in the Middle East keeps fueling higher energy costs. PPI (+2.8% vs. the Street +1.8% and up from +0.5% in Mar) and CPI (+1.2% vs. the Street +0.9% and up from +1% in Mar). WSJ
US housing lenders and state agencies are raising concerns that the Trump administration could wind down a financing programme, The FY27 budget projects no new commitments for the programme: Semafor
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told NBC that the White House is “open to all ideas,” when asked about suspending the federal gas tax. States in the Midwest have seen the steepest increases in gas prices, with a 72% jump in Ohio. BBG
China’s domestic car sales fell for a seventh straight month in April amid intense competition in the world’s biggest auto market but exports stayed strong as automakers increasingly targeted overseas markets. Sales at home dropped 21.6% from a year earlier, but EV and plug-in hybrid vehicle exports shot up 111.8% from a year earlier, outpacing an 80.2% increase in overall car exports, as rising global fuel prices triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran bolstered EV demand in overseas markets. RTRS
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appealed to Indians to save fuel by working from home and using public transport, as the world’s third-largest oil importer tries to halt escalating economic disruption from higher energy prices. FT
An American and a French passenger linked to the Hondius cruise ship outbreak have tested positive for the Andes strain of hantavirus, health authorities said. Seventeen US citizens are being repatriated from the vessel. BBG
Goldman is pushing back the final two Fed rate cuts in our forecast by one quarter to December 2026 and March 2027. With energy cost passthrough likely to keep year-over-year core PCE inflation closer to 3% than 2% all year, we think that a combination of lower monthly inflation prints after the oil shock fades and further labor market softening will likely be needed for the FOMC to cut this year. The bank still expects that bar to be met but now expect it to take a bit longer.
Iran War
US President Trump posted, “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called “Representatives.” I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”
Iran submitted its response to the latest proposal by the US to end the war, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency, while Tehran hasn’t provided any public indication yet on whether it will accept US President Trump’s proposal for Iran to permit passage through the Strait of Hormuz and for the US to end its blockade on Iranian ports in the next month. Iranian state media later reported that the US proposal amounted to Iran surrendering to Trump’s excessive demands, while Iran’s proposal stressed the need for the US to pay compensation for war damages and emphasised Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran reportedly was offering a shorter uranium enrichment suspension than the 20-year US proposal and rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities in any future talks with the US, according to WSJ.
US lawmakers are considering a potential congressional authorisation for military action if the US-Iran ceasefire ends, according to Semafor.
“Diplomacy and back channel talks and contacts between Iran and US to work out a draft agreement continues to be in the works — Diplomacy is not dead”, Journalist Mallick posted.
US officials cited by Iran International said Iran’s response to the US proposal has blocked the path to a diplomatic solution with Tehran; “The next steps by Trump after receiving Iran’s negative response are still unclear”.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran’s proposal to the US “was not excessive,” and that the US continues to have “unreasonable demands.”. He further stated that “currently, we are focusing our discussions on ending the war and the uranium issue, which we will discuss later.”
Tehran reiterates “its main condition for the ceasefire is the cessation of conflicts on all fronts, from Gaza and Lebanon to Yemen”, Mehr reported.
Iranian source told Tasnim “We saw the reaction of the US president to the Iranian answer. It is of no importance. No one in Iran drafts proposals to please Trump. The negotiating team writes proposals only for the rights of the Iranian people…”.
Iranian media reported overnight that air defence systems in the southwest of the country shot down an enemy reconnaissance drone, Israeli N12 reported.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said removal of Iranian nuclear material remains a war priority and that US President Trump told him ‘I want to go in’ regarding Iranian nuclear sites.
Israeli PM Netanyahu is holding security consultations following Iran’s response to the US proposal.
Two interceptors were launched from Kiryat Shmona area to southern Lebanon following the identification of a suspicious aerial target, according to N12.
Hezbollah said it targeted Israeli force stationed inside a house in Baidar al-Faqaani in the town of Taybeh for the second time. Israeli media said officers in Northern Command reveal an increase in Hezbollah attacks without the public being informed about them.
WSJ writes that as US President Trump prepares to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to dominate discussions.
UK and France will host a meeting on Tuesday with the presence of defence ministers of dozens of countries to discuss the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Three tankers carrying 6mln barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz, Sky News reported citing new data.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed as the region reflected on last Friday’s tech rally and NFP beat, as well as firmer-than-expected Chinese data, and geopolitical developments with US President Trump rejecting Iran’s response to the peace proposal. ASX 200 was dragged lower by heavy losses in the health care sector as CSL shares slumped by around 19% after it flagged a USD 5bln impairment, while sentiment was also not helped by a report that Australia’s government is to scrap the 50% capital gains tax discount by July 2027. Nikkei 225 initially climbed to a fresh record high north of the 63,000 level but then wiped out its gains amid headwinds from higher oil prices and weak earnings outlooks for the likes of Nintendo and Honda. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied amid the mixed fortunes among the tech names in Hong Kong, and with the mainland boosted after Chinese trade and inflation data topped forecasts.
Top Asian News
South Korea Finance Minister said economic growth is to exceed 2% this year.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) trade mixed to start the week, despite the surge in energy prices. Over the weekend, US President Trump rejected Iran’s response to the peace plan and called it totally unacceptable. The FTSE 100 outperforms its peers while the CAC 40 lags. Sectors point to a mixed picture. Telecoms top the sector pile, followed by Banks amid the higher yield environment. Consumer Products & Services underperforms, with luxury names such as LVMH, Hermes and Kering falling by various degrees (0.8-2.5%).
Top European News
UK PM Starmer said the local election results were “very tough” and reiterated he takes responsibility for election loss and will not step down. On the UK-EU relationship, he said Brexit has made the UK weaker and migration higher and vowed to rebuild the EU relationship.
Talk of UK Cabinet resignations today. However, Mail on Sunday’s Hodges expects such interventions to start later in the week, would be surprised to see any today.
UK Manchester Mayor Burnham said to have identified a specific MP who is on board with a plan to stand down and let him run, POLITICO reported, citing sources.
UK Labour Backbencher Catherine West told POLITICO she wants to “give a deadline” of Tuesday morning for the required 81 MPs to back her and force a leadership contest. West told POLITICO on Sunday that she still intends to watch Starmer this morning and make up her mind about whether to launch a leadership challenge. “If it’s an amazing speech, then I will think twice about asking the Parliamentary Labour Party for their support,” she told the Telegraph.
FX
Snapshot: G10s are mostly lower against the USD, with action dictated by the strength seen across the energy complex; the CHF and JPY lag whilst the Loonie holds afloat. The NOK is a touch stronger this morning, following an uptick in the region’s core inflation.
DXY is slightly firmer this morning, and trades towards the lower end of a 97.96-98.15 range. The index has been lifted by renewed geopolitical risk, after President Trump called Iran’s latest peace offer as “totally unacceptable” – as such, the crude complex is bid this morning. Domestically, tier 1 data is lacking this morning, but attention will turn to US CPI on Tuesday. Fed speak today includes Kashkari and Hammack (both dissenters at the April confab). ING opines that continued geopolitical unrest this week could see the index traverse back above the 98.00 mark, and trade within a 98.00-98.50 range.
JPY and CHF are underperforming this morning, driven lower by their net-importer of energy statuses. For the USD/JPY specifically, it trades back towards the 157.00 mark, within a 156.55-157.17 range; further upside could see the pair head back towards its 100-DMA at 157.38. Domestic updates have been lacking for the JPY, but focus will be on US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s meeting with Japanese officials early this week.
GBP is currently incrementally lower. PM Starmer remains on the wires at the time of publication; comments thus far remains very much as expected, where he reiterated that he will not step down. Markets await commentary from Catherine West, who has threatened a leadership challenge against Starmer, if she was left unsatisfied by his remarks. MUFG writes, “we continue to believe that a shift to the left for the Labour party would trigger at least a temporary period of pound selling”. Cable currently trades just above the 1.3600 mark, within a 1.3557-1.3614 range.
Antipodeans are currently diverging, with the Aussie holding afloat against the Dollar, whilst the Kiwi moves a touch lower. Overnight, both were pressured by the downbeat risk tone, but the Aussie has managed to clamber higher thereafter. Some of the strength may be facilitated by the outperformance in the Yuan, after Chinese trade and inflation data topped forecasts.
Fixed Income
Fixed benchmarks are generally on the backfoot as energy benchmarks opened higher and extended at the start of the week as the negotiating process made no progress on the weekend, with the US and Iran essentially rejecting each other’s positions. We now await any revised proposal(s) before looking to the meeting between Chinese President Xi and US President Trump, from Wednesday.
USTs hit a 110-15 low, with downside of just under 10 ticks, early doors. Since, as the energy space wanes from highs, fixed income has lifted off worst. USTs are now lower by around five ticks and to a 110-23 peak. If the upside continues, we look to resistance at 110-28 and 111-03+ from Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Gilts underperform vs peer, as markets await a potential leadership challenge against PM Starmer. He remains on the wires at the time of publication, where his comments thus far have largely been as expected; he reiterated that he does not intend to step down. Markets will await updates from Catherine West, who could launch a leadership challenge against the PM if she is not satisfied by his remarks. Gilts are off by around 45 ticks, within a 87.10 to 87.45 range.
Bunds in-fitting with USTs. Lower by 35 ticks to a 125.35 base early doors. Since, as energy eases, Bunds have trimmed much of the initial pressure and hold off a 125.56 peak, lower by c. 10 ticks.
Commodities
Geopolitics continues to be the underlying driving force of price action. In short, Iran submitted its response to the latest US proposal to end the war, with Trump calling it “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE”. Iranian state media said the US proposal amounted to Tehran surrendering to Trump’s excessive demands. Iran’s counter-position stressed US compensation for war damages, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief and release of blocked assets. In terms of diplomacy, Pakistani journalist Mallick posted, “To my understanding, Contrary to publicly put out positions and statements, diplomacy and back channel talks and contacts between Iran and US to work out a draft agreement continues to be in the works — Diplomacy is not dead”.
WTI and Brent futures are firmer but off best levels following the initial pop higher on the rejection, with the prospect of ongoing efforts to negotiate taking some sting out of the punchy rhetoric from the US and Iran. WTI Jun hit a high of USD 100.37/bbl (vs low 96.92/bbl) before waning levels under USD 97.70/bbl at the time of writing, though still +2% intraday. Brent July has dipped back under USD 104/bbl from an earlier USD 105.99/bbl peak. Dutch TTF also rose in early trade before waning from a high near EUR 45.50/MWh to a low just under EUR 44.50/MWh.
Spot gold is modestly softer as the firmer crude prices keep the USD underpinned, though the bullion resides in a narrow USD 4,648.09-4,705.56/oz range at the time of writing, remaining under its 100 DMA (USD 4,781/oz). Spot silver, however, is choppy on either side of the USD 80/oz mark after briefly topping Friday’s USD 81.57/oz peak, with the 100 DMA at USD 80.60/oz.
Base metals are mixed with sentiment cautiously positive in recent trade as energy prices came off best levels and provided a slight boost to the risk tone. 3M LME copper remains north of USD 13.5k/t in a USD 13,515.70-13,650.20/t range.
Saudi crude oil supply to China is set to fall to a record low of about 10mln barrels in June, sources say.
Japan’s Industry Ministry said the first Central Asian crude tanker since Iran war has set sail for Japan.
Trade/Tariffs
Indian official said Indian official said the US trade team will reach India soon for discussions; there is no plan to hike duties on gold and silver imports.
US Event Calendar
10:00 am: United States Apr Existing Home Sales, est. 4.05m, prior 3.98m
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Good evening from Phoenix airport where I’m glad it’s a stopover to the West Coast and not the final destination as its seemingly 40 degrees plus out there! My Oura ring tells me I had 3hr 58 mins sleep on the plane. Hopefully a bit more will follow at the final destination before jet lag well and truly kicks in. I have 12 hours before I have to be presentable and coherent.
It has now been 73 days since the war in Iran began, with the past 32 marked by a stalemate characterised by a mix of truce and ongoing ceasefire. The absence of any meaningful kinetic activity for over a month suggests to me a firm US preference for reaching a deal. However, a counterpoint is that uncertainty over who holds negotiating authority in Iran may be complicating progress and delaying more difficult times ahead. It remains an unusual conflict with little action now for a month. In simple terms though, as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, markets remain on a knife edge. Polymarket currently assigns a 50% probability to it fully reopening by 30 June.
The latest is that oil and yields are up again this morning as President Trump has posted that “I have just read the response from Iran’s so called ‘Representatives'” which he went on to call “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE”. This was based on a WSJ report that suggested Iran was offering to transfer some of highly enriched uranium to another country but wouldn’t dismantle its nuclear facilities. Iran’s official news agency has disputed the report anyway. Brent is up +4.23% and 10yr US yields are up +3.5bps. However, US and European equity futures are largely flat and Asian equities are largely higher on the AI trade. The KOSPI is on fire again with the index up +4.0% as semiconductors surge again. The index has crossed +85% YTD.
This comes ahead of the planned mid-to end week meeting between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing. It’ll be interesting to see whether this meeting does anything to shape negotiations in the war. Both leaders would clearly like to show their influence on the world stage. So certainly a big headline event.
Before that, the new week arrives with markets still processing last Friday’s US payrolls report, which came in broadly firm and reinforced the view that labour market conditions remain resilient. While not strong enough to decisively alter the policy outlook, the release did little to ease concerns that underlying inflation pressures could persist, especially given still-solid wage dynamics. Against this backdrop, outside of the Iran War developments which will of course take centre stage, the coming week will remain centred on the US, with a dense run of data and policy developments.
The focal point will be tomorrow’s April CPI report. Our economists expect headline inflation to rise by +0.58% month-on-month, moderating from March’s +0.9%, but still relatively firm. In contrast, the core measure is projected to accelerate to +0.39% MoM from +0.2%, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky even as energy-related effects fade. The YoY rates would move from 3.3% to 3.8% for the former and from 2.6% to 2.8% for the latter. See Matt Luzzetti’s piece here on five doubts around the US disinflation story and his team’s CPI preview piece here.
Producer price data follows on Wednesday and then the remainder of the week shifts towards activity indicators. Our economists expect retail sales to decline by -0.3% MoM after March’s strong +1.7% increase, pointing to some payback in consumer spending. Meanwhile, industrial production is forecast to rise modestly by +0.2% MoM following a -0.5% drop previously, suggesting a tentative stabilisation in manufacturing output.
Policy and politics will also be important. A Senate vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair is scheduled for today, just days before Jerome Powell’s term is set to expire at the end of the week. It’s possible the vote could get pushed back a day or so due to other Senate business but by the end of the week you would expect Warsh to have taken Miran’s seat on the board with Powell staying on the committee. In Europe, inflation readings from Denmark and Norway today are followed with Germany’s ZEW survey tomorrow with sentiment darkening even with the nation’s extraordinary fiscal package. Later in the week, the ECB’s economic bulletin may offer additional context on the central bank’s assessment of inflation and activity trends.
In the UK, attention will be split between politics and macro. The State Opening of Parliament and the King’s Speech on Wednesday will outline the government’s legislative agenda for the year ahead. With PM Starmer under tremendous pressure following the very poor (but broadly as expected) local election results on Thursday there is talk of a leadership challenge as soon as today. Backbench MP Catherine West has said she will stand, which would be a stalking horse nomination. However, many left-wing MPs (as she is) have urged her not to as their preferred candidate Andy Burnham is not currently an MP. They fear an election now might be a bit too early and may allow a more moderate candidate like Wes Streeting to prevail. So timing tactics could prolong Starmer’s reign. A reminder that in September last year, Mr Burnham said that the UK should no longer be “in hock to the bond markets”. This caused a spike in Gilt yields and although he subsequently downplayed the remarks, this is something to watch carefully as we navigate the politics of the next few days and weeks. On the data side, Q1 UK GDP on Thursday will offer up the latest state of play growth wise.
In Asia, Japan’s schedule includes household spending data tomorrow, alongside the Economy Watchers survey and bank lending figures on Wednesday. In addition, the Bank of Japan will publish its summary of opinions from the April meeting, which should provide greater insight into policymakers’ thinking and any emerging shifts in the policy stance.
There are multiple appearances from Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ officials throughout the week, and on the corporate front, earnings continue at a steadier pace. In the US, Cisco and Applied Materials are among the key names, while internationally the focus includes major firms such as Tencent, Alibaba, Siemens and Bayer. See the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual for a fuller week ahead preview.
In terms of data in Asia, China’s trade data released on Saturday showed exports surging +14.1% YoY (+8.4% expected) with imports up +25.3% (+20.0% expected). Inflation released this morning showed CPI climbing +1.2% YoY (+0.9% expected), the same number for core, with PPI up +2.8% (+1.8% expected). Commodity prices seem to have pushed inflation higher than expected.
Recapping last week now, markets advanced amidst hopes that the US and Iran would come to an agreement to end the war. The gains came despite both sides trading attacks on Thursday and Friday, as Trump reiterated that a ceasefire between the two sides remained intact. The initial catalyst of the market optimism occurred on Tuesday, when an Axios report announced that the US and Iran were close to agreeing on a framework that would end the war and ahead of more detailed nuclear negotiations. So that triggered a fall in oil prices, with Brent crude down (-6.43%) over the week (+1.16% on Friday) to $101.22/bbl, though 6-month Brent futures were stable (-0.11%) at $87.30/bbl after a +2.19% rally on Friday.
US equities surged to new highs, with the S&P 500 (+2.34%, +0.85% on Friday) posting a sixth consecutive weekly advance, whilst the Nasdaq (+4.30%, +1.51% on Friday), Mag-7 (+3.87%, +0.81% on Friday) and Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Exchange (+10.57%, +4.97% on Friday) rose to new highs as well. In addition to the slide in oil, the rally was also driven by strong earnings in AI and solid US data. The highlight on the latter was the April jobs report on Friday, which showed payrolls rising by +115k (+65k expected), though this was combined with slightly slower average earnings growth (+3.6% yoy vs +3.8% exp). We did see some less positive survey data, including U Mich consumer confidence data for May (48.2 vs 49.5 est) on Friday and the NY Fed’s latest 1yr inflation expectations (3.64% vs 3.5% exp). Put together, this left Treasuries little changed over the week, with 10yr yields down -0.9bps to 4.36% (-2.5bps Friday), while 2yr yields were up +1.0bps to 3.89% (-2.2bps Friday).
In Europe, a key story were the UK local elections, which showed the governing Labour Party suffering heavy losses, whilst Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party saw major gains. However, these results were largely expected and 10yr gilt yields outperformed on Friday (-3.6bps) and were down -5.2bps over the week.
Elsewhere in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-3.1ps, +0.3bps Friday), OATs (-7.1bps, -0.4bps Friday) and BTPs (-13.1bps, -1.2bps Friday) also declined amid lower oil prices. European equities mostly advanced, although their gains were pared back amidst the ongoing Iran uncertainty going into the weekend, with the STOXX 600 (+0.10%, -0.69% Friday) and DAX (+0.19%, -1.32% on Friday) marginally higher
1b) European opening report
US equity futures little moved despite lack of US-Iran progress – Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
Monday, May 11, 2026 – 06:05 AM
US President Trump rejected Iran’s response to the peace plan, which he called totally unacceptable.
Iran’s proposal was said to have stressed the need for the US to pay compensation for war damages and emphasised Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent initially climbed above USD 105/bbl but has waned off highs on potential diplomacy.
European bourses traded mixed, Compass raised its FY guidance; US equity futures muted.
DXY benefited from higher energy prices, CHF underperforms while GBP is cautious as PM Starmer addresses the nation.
USTs and Bunds off worst levels as energy benchmarks dip from overnight highs.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Existing Home Sales, BoC Market Participants Survey. Supply from the US. Earnings from Hims & Hers, Constellation Energy & Circle Internet.
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IRAN CONFLICT
US President Trump posted, “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called “Representatives.” I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”
Iran submitted its response to the latest proposal by the US to end the war, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency, while Tehran hasn’t provided any public indication yet on whether it will accept US President Trump’s proposal for Iran to permit passage through the Strait of Hormuz and for the US to end its blockade on Iranian ports in the next month. Iranian state media later reported that the US proposal amounted to Iran surrendering to Trump’s excessive demands, while Iran’s proposal stressed the need for the US to pay compensation for war damages and emphasised Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran reportedly was offering a shorter uranium enrichment suspension than the 20-year US proposal and rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities in any future talks with the US, according to WSJ.
US lawmakers are considering a potential congressional authorisation for military action if the US-Iran ceasefire ends, according to Semafor.
“Diplomacy and back channel talks and contacts between Iran and US to work out a draft agreement continues to be in the works — Diplomacy is not dead”, Journalist Mallick posted.
US officials cited by Iran International said Iran’s response to the US proposal has blocked the path to a diplomatic solution with Tehran; “The next steps by Trump after receiving Iran’s negative response are still unclear”.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran’s proposal to the US “was not excessive,” and that the US continues to have “unreasonable demands.”. He further stated that “currently, we are focusing our discussions on ending the war and the uranium issue, which we will discuss later.”
Tehran reiterates “its main condition for the ceasefire is the cessation of conflicts on all fronts, from Gaza and Lebanon to Yemen”, Mehr reported.
Iranian source told Tasnim “We saw the reaction of the US president to the Iranian answer. It is of no importance. No one in Iran drafts proposals to please Trump. The negotiating team writes proposals only for the rights of the Iranian people…”.
Iranian media reported overnight that air defence systems in the southwest of the country shot down an enemy reconnaissance drone, Israeli N12 reported.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said removal of Iranian nuclear material remains a war priority and that US President Trump told him ‘I want to go in’ regarding Iranian nuclear sites.
Israeli PM Netanyahu is holding security consultations following Iran’s response to the US proposal.
Two interceptors were launched from Kiryat Shmona area to southern Lebanon following the identification of a suspicious aerial target, according to N12.
Hezbollah said it targeted Israeli force stationed inside a house in Baidar al-Faqaani in the town of Taybeh for the second time. Israeli media said officers in Northern Command reveal an increase in Hezbollah attacks without the public being informed about them.
WSJ writes that as US President Trump prepares to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to dominate discussions.
UK and France will host a meeting on Tuesday with the presence of defence ministers of dozens of countries to discuss the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Three tankers carrying 6mln barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz, Sky News reported citing new data.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) trade mixed to start the week, despite the surge in energy prices. Over the weekend, US President Trump rejected Iran’s response to the peace plan and called it totally unacceptable. The FTSE 100 outperforms its peers while the CAC 40 lags.
Sectors point to a mixed picture. Telecoms top the sector pile, followed by Banks amid the higher yield environment. Consumer Products & Services underperforms, with luxury names such as LVMH, Hermes and Kering falling by various degrees (0.8-2.5%).
US equity futures are indicative of a flat open. For the tech-heavy NQ, it trades with modest losses on the day and YTD gains of 14%. Despite the impressive gains, it pales in comparison to the YTD KOSPI strength of over 80%.
Snapshot: G10s are mostly lower against the USD, with action dictated by the strength seen across the energy complex; the CHF and JPY lag whilst the Loonie holds afloat. The NOK is a touch stronger this morning, following an uptick in the region’s core inflation.
DXY is slightly firmer this morning, and trades towards the lower end of a 97.96-98.15 range. The index has been lifted by renewed geopolitical risk, after President Trump called Iran’s latest peace offer as “totally unacceptable” – as such, the crude complex is bid this morning. Domestically, tier 1 data is lacking this morning, but attention will turn to US CPI on Tuesday. Fed speak today includes Kashkari and Hammack (both dissenters at the April confab). ING opines that continued geopolitical unrest this week could see the index traverse back above the 98.00 mark, and trade within a 98.00-98.50 range.
JPY and CHF are underperforming this morning, driven lower by their net-importer of energy statuses. For the USD/JPY specifically, it trades back towards the 157.00 mark, within a 156.55-157.17 range; further upside could see the pair head back towards its 100-DMA at 157.38. Domestic updates have been lacking for the JPY, but focus will be on US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s meeting with Japanese officials early this week.
GBP is currently incrementally lower. PM Starmer remains on the wires at the time of publication; comments thus far remains very much as expected, where he reiterated that he will not step down. Markets await commentary from Catherine West, who has threatened a leadership challenge against Starmer, if she was left unsatisfied by his remarks. MUFG writes, “we continue to believe that a shift to the left for the Labour party would trigger at least a temporary period of pound selling”. Cable currently trades just above the 1.3600 mark, within a 1.3557-1.3614 range.
Antipodeans are currently diverging, with the Aussie holding afloat against the Dollar, whilst the Kiwi moves a touch lower. Overnight, both were pressured by the downbeat risk tone, but the Aussie has managed to clamber higher thereafter. Some of the strength may be facilitated by the outperformance in the Yuan, after Chinese trade and inflation data topped forecasts.
FIXED INCOME
Fixed benchmarks are generally on the backfoot as energy benchmarks opened higher and extended at the start of the week as the negotiating process made no progress on the weekend, with the US and Iran essentially rejecting each other’s positions. We now await any revised proposal(s) before looking to the meeting between Chinese President Xi and US President Trump, from Wednesday.
USTs hit a 110-15 low, with downside of just under 10 ticks, early doors. Since, as the energy space wanes from highs, fixed income has lifted off worst. USTs are now lower by around five ticks and to a 110-23 peak. If the upside continues, we look to resistance at 110-28 and 111-03+ from Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Gilts underperform vs peer, as markets await a potential leadership challenge against PM Starmer. He remains on the wires at the time of publication, where his comments thus far have largely been as expected; he reiterated that he does not intend to step down. Markets will await updates from Catherine West, who could launch a leadership challenge against the PM if she is not satisfied by his remarks. Gilts are off by around 45 ticks, within a 87.10 to 87.45 range.
Bunds in-fitting with USTs. Lower by 35 ticks to a 125.35 base early doors. Since, as energy eases, Bunds have trimmed much of the initial pressure and hold off a 125.56 peak, lower by c. 10 ticks.
COMMODITIES
Geopolitics continues to be the underlying driving force of price action. In short, Iran submitted its response to the latest US proposal to end the war, with Trump calling it “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE”. Iranian state media said the US proposal amounted to Tehran surrendering to Trump’s excessive demands. Iran’s counter-position stressed US compensation for war damages, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief and release of blocked assets. In terms of diplomacy, Pakistani journalist Mallick posted, “To my understanding, Contrary to publicly put out positions and statements, diplomacy and back channel talks and contacts between Iran and US to work out a draft agreement continues to be in the works — Diplomacy is not dead”.
WTI and Brent futures are firmer but off best levels following the initial pop higher on the rejection, with the prospect of ongoing efforts to negotiate taking some sting out of the punchy rhetoric from the US and Iran. WTI Jun hit a high of USD 100.37/bbl (vs low 96.92/bbl) before waning levels under USD 97.70/bbl at the time of writing, though still +2% intraday. Brent July has dipped back under USD 104/bbl from an earlier USD 105.99/bbl peak. Dutch TTF also rose in early trade before waning from a high near EUR 45.50/MWh to a low just under EUR 44.50/MWh.
Spot gold is modestly softer as the firmer crude prices keep the USD underpinned, though the bullion resides in a narrow USD 4,648.09-4,705.56/oz range at the time of writing, remaining under its 100 DMA (USD 4,781/oz). Spot silver, however, is choppy on either side of the USD 80/oz mark after briefly topping Friday’s USD 81.57/oz peak, with the 100 DMA at USD 80.60/oz.
Base metals are mixed with sentiment cautiously positive in recent trade as energy prices came off best levels and provided a slight boost to the risk tone. 3M LME copper remains north of USD 13.5k/t in a USD 13,515.70-13,650.20/t range.
Saudi crude oil supply to China is set to fall to a record low of about 10mln barrels in June, sources say.
Japan’s Industry Ministry said the first Central Asian crude tanker since Iran war has set sail for Japan.
TRADE/TARIFFS
Indian official said Indian official said the US trade team will reach India soon for discussions; there is no plan to hike duties on gold and silver imports.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
UK PM Starmer said the local election results were “very tough” and reiterated he takes responsibility for election loss and will not step down. On the UK-EU relationship, he said Brexit has made the UK weaker and migration higher and vowed to rebuild the EU relationship.
Talk of UK Cabinet resignations today. However, Mail on Sunday’s Hodges expects such interventions to start later in the week, would be surprised to see any today.
UK Manchester Mayor Burnham said to have identified a specific MP who is on board with a plan to stand down and let him run, POLITICO reported, citing sources.
UK Labour Backbencher Catherine West told POLITICO she wants to “give a deadline” of Tuesday morning for the required 81 MPs to back her and force a leadership contest. West told POLITICO on Sunday that she still intends to watch Starmer this morning and make up her mind about whether to launch a leadership challenge. “If it’s an amazing speech, then I will think twice about asking the Parliamentary Labour Party for their support,” she told the Telegraph.
ECB’s Kocher said the risk of stagflationary trend cannot be ruled out.
ECB’s de Guindos said “I think that we have to wait before deciding on the next interest rate move. We need more clarity about the conflict in Iran. We will have new projections in June. Let’s see the data”, when asked about a June rate hike.
BoE’s Greene said it is worth waiting a little while to see what happens with the Middle Eastern war and how it will propagate through the economy, speaking to Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast.
Bank of Japan appoints Kenji Fujita as new Executive Director, according to Nikkei.
BoJ appoints Masaki as Executive Director for International Affairs, overseeing BoJ Global Research and G7/G20 liaison.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US housing lenders and state agencies are raising concerns that the Trump administration could wind down a financing programme, according to Semafor. The FY27 budget projects no new commitments for the programme.
China confirms US President Trump’s visit to China on May 13th-15th.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
EU sees the opportunity to prepare another round of sanctions against Russia, with Putin’s shadow fleet facing fresh EU sanctions blitz, while banks, military companies and firms selling stolen Ukrainian grain also face penalties, according to POLITICO.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin reversed just shy of the 200-SMA, returned back below the USD 81k handle.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed as the region reflected on last Friday’s tech rally and NFP beat, as well as firmer-than-expected Chinese data, and geopolitical developments with US President Trump rejecting Iran’s response to the peace proposal.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by heavy losses in the health care sector as CSL shares slumped by around 19% after it flagged a USD 5bln impairment, while sentiment was also not helped by a report that Australia’s government is to scrap the 50% capital gains tax discount by July 2027.
Nikkei 225 initially climbed to a fresh record high north of the 63,000 level but then wiped out its gains amid headwinds from higher oil prices and weak earnings outlooks for the likes of Nintendo and Honda.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied amid the mixed fortunes among the tech names in Hong Kong, and with the mainland boosted after Chinese trade and inflation data topped forecasts.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
South Korea Finance Minister said economic growth is to exceed 2% this year.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
Chinese Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) M/M 0.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.7%).
Chinese Inflation Rate YoY (Apr) Y/Y 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1%).
Chinese Imports YoY (Apr) Y/Y 25.3% (Prev. 27.8%).
Chinese Exports YoY (Apr) Y/Y 14.1% (Prev. 2.5%).
Chinese Balance of Trade (Apr) 84.8B vs. Exp. 82.4B (Prev. 51.13B).
Chinese PPI YoY (Apr) Y/Y 2.8% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 0.5%).
l c) Asian opening report
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
JAPAN
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
3. CHINA/
CHINA//USA
Chinese EVs Absent From U.S. Roads, But Parts Under The Hood Are Alarming
Saturday, May 09, 2026 – 10:45 PM
For good reason, U.S. policymakers have resisted opening the domestic auto market to a flood of cheap, gasoline-powered Chinese cars and EVs. Such a move would crush Detroit into even more misery. It would accelerate the hollowing out of the nation’s industrial base (something Europe willingly did), further degrade suppliers, and weaken the country’s ability to convert truck production lines to tank production in wartime.
However, while Chinese-made cars remain absent from U.S. highways, there has been a flood of Chinese auto parts, from airbags to transmissions to starters to steering systems and many other components, according to a new Wall Street Journal report citing data from consulting firm AlixPartners.
According to AlixPartners data, Chinese companies hold ownership stakes in about 10,000 suppliers nationwide. The exposure is an eye-opener for lawmakers, as the urgency to decouple critical supply chains from China remains a national security priority under the Trump administration.
“They’re [China] deeply integrated into the industry,” Michael Dunne, CEO of automotive consulting firm Dunne Insights, told the outlet.
Examples of this alarming deep integration include Ford’s Mustang GT, which uses a six-speed manual transmission from China; Toyota’s Prius plug-in hybrid, with about 15% of parts sourced from China; and GM’s Chevrolet Trax, Blazer EV, and Equinox EV, which contain approximately 20% Chinese parts.
Several automakers have been dialing back their parts exposure to China in recent years. Tesla has required suppliers to remove China-made components from U.S.-built vehicles, while GM says China now accounts for less than 3% of its direct material spending for U.S.-made cars. Still, government data show that at least 40 models for sale in the U.S. have alarmingly high levels of Chinese components.
What’s increasingly clear is that over the last 15 years, Beijing has been taking aggressive market share in the global auto market to become a dominant player. AlixPartners data show that in 2012, only one Chinese company ranked among the world’s top 100 auto suppliers. Now that figure is expected to reach 22 by 2030.
Lawmakers have been briefed about ways to eliminate Chinese auto parts from the U.S. market, which has only put pressure on the domestic supplier network.
In late April, more than 50 House Republicans, led by Rep. Mike Kelly (R., Pa.), penned a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, urging them to block Chinese automotive and battery companies from manufacturing in the U.S.
Juergen Simon, a partner at AlixPartners, told the outlet, “This shows the incredible speed at which the competitive environment has changed.” He noted that Chinese suppliers were once avoided due to concerns about quality and performance, but that is no longer the case.
The race to clean up decades of globalism that crushed America’s industrial core is well underway with the Trump administration. It appears the move to rebuild the nation’s auto supplier network and eliminate China from that ecosystem could be nearing.
4 EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
AUSTRIA
Austrian Hotel Defends Burkini Pool Ban As Hygiene Dispute With Muslim Guests Heads To Court
A hotel in the Austrian city of Salzburg is defending its refusal to allow two women to use its pool while wearing burkinis, arguing that the decision was based on hygiene concerns rather than discrimination.
The case is now before the Salzburg Administrative Court after the operators of the hotel in Pongau appealed fines imposed by the district authority, according to Salzburger Nachrichten.
Boshra and Jasmina Amasha, two sisters from Upper Austria, had booked a short wellness break at the hotel on Oct. 25 last year.
They arrived early with the intention of using the swimming pool before going hiking.
The dispute started at reception when one of the women mentioned that she was going to retrieve her burkini from the car.
Staff told her that burkinis were not allowed in the hotel pool, a decision that was upheld after a phone call with the hotel manager.
The hotel manager later confirmed in court that women wearing burkinis were not welcome in the pool. She said the policy was linked to hygiene, arguing that longer fabric could carry bacteria into the water.
She acknowledged that she did not have scientific evidence to support that concern, but said the hotel also operated as a spa and had to place particular emphasis on cleanliness, especially because many older guests used the facilities.
The hotel’s co-manager also told the court that there was no formal written swimwear policy, but said long swimwear could have a negative effect on water hygiene. He added that the hotel had also previously asked guests wearing long swimming shorts to change.
The sisters reject the hygiene explanation. Jasmina Amasha said the phone conversation was not presented to them as a technical discussion about pool standards, but instead included remarks such as, “Here in Austria, we have to adapt,” and, “We could go swimming in Saudi Arabia wearing a burkini.”
She also claimed they were told other guests did not like seeing women in burkinis.
Their lawyer argued that burkinis are made from similar material to standard swimwear and are not less hygienic than bikinis.
She also cited a parliamentary inquiry to the Ministry of Health and said the garment could reduce the amount of hair and skin flakes entering the water.
After the confrontation, the sisters left and booked another hotel. The court heard that the original hotel covered the additional costs, but Jasmina Amasha said the experience had been “extremely humiliating and discriminatory.”
The hotel operators are appealing the penalty imposed against them, and the court is expected to issue a written ruling in the coming weeks.
‘Sporadic Clashes’ In Strait Of Hormuz After US Attacks & Disables Two Iran Vessels Trying To Breach Blockade
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 11:00 AM
Summary
Sporadic clashes between Iranian Armed Forces and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, few details given.
Two more empty Iranian-flagged tankers come under US aerial attack for attempting to breach blockade.
Iran says US violated ceasefire after last night’s US action, which resulted in Iranian military deaths & injures. However, Tehran still reviewing US peace proposal.
Tasnim news agency: Iran has seized an oil tanker, accusing it of “attempting to disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation.”
Iran’s Fars reports late morning (US time): Sporadic clashes between Iranian Armed Forces and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Amid the fog of war, nothing in the way of details initially emerged.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei has condemned US “aggression and adventurism” but has also confirmed that Tehran is still reviewing the US proposal and is still going to respond soon. Al Jazeera cites state media on emerging deaths from the Iranian side:
Mohammad Radmehr, governor of Minab County in southern Iran, says he has received word that rescuers have found the body of one of five sailors reported missing after a US attack on an Iranian vessel overnight in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Mehr news agency quoted Radmehr as saying that search teams are continuing efforts to find the four remaining missing sailors. Earlier, as we reported, Radmehr said 10 sailors were also injured during the naval confrontation.
Details of Fresh US Airstrikes on Tankers
The Wall Street Journal has details (based on CENTCOM press release) after two Iranian-flagged tankers came under US attack for attempting to breach the US blockade:
U.S. military forces carried out airstrikes on Friday, hitting and disabling two empty Iranian-flagged oil tankers attempting to circumvent the American naval blockade against Iranian ports, according to U.S. Central Command
The vessels struck were very large crude carriers attempting to return to an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman, the M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda, according to a statement from Centcom.
A U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet jet fighter from the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush fired precision munitions into their smokestacks, disabling the tankers, Centcom said.
It marks third time the US has attacked commercial vessels for trying to break through to Iranian ports, following a Wednesday incident which saw a US Navy jet destroy rudder of an Iranian tanker under similar circumstances.
CENTCOM releases fresh footage of the airstrike on the Iranian-flagged M/T Sea Star III:
The Trump administration continues to await a formal response from Tehran on a U.S. proposal aimed at ending the war and reopening the Hormuz chokepoint, following last week’s clashes between Iranian and U.S. naval forces in the world’s most critical waterway.
While there were no official signs of a breakthrough in negotiations as of early Saturday morning, new ship data from the Hormuz area may suggest that positive developments are ahead.
“If successful, this would be the first time Qatar has exported LNG out of the region since the Iran war began in late-Feb,” Stapczynski noted, adding, “The tanker says it is destined for Pakistan.”
The tanker is fully loaded with LNG and is currently transiting the Hormuz chokepoint. We must point out that the ship did not sail through the Hormuz Island route. There is no word on whether Iran charged the vessel a transit fee, but Tehran allows ships from “friendly” nations, primarily China, India, and the UAE, to pass.
On Friday, UBS energy analyst Anna Kishmariya told clients that shipping flows through the Hormuz chokepoint remain very restricted and that the global oil market is getting tighter.
There is certainly urgency among the Trump administration and other nations to unfreeze Hormuz, as oil market insiders see a roughly one-month countdown to global energy chaos if the waterway remains blocked through this month.
Latest overnight headlines, courtesy of Bloomberg:
Ceasefire and Diplomatic Efforts
• The US is waiting for Iran’s response to Trump’s latest proposal to end the war, which suggests Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US ends its blockade of Iranian ports over the next month
• Tehran’s response to the US proposal is “under review,” according to Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei
• Trump has changed his approach to prioritize reopening the Strait of Hormuz at all costs while leaving nuclear and ballistic missile negotiations for later
Recent Military Clashes
• The US struck Iranian military targets on Thursday after Iran fired multiple missiles, drones and small boats at three US Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz, with no US assets hit
• US forces targeted missile and drone launch sites and other military assets in Iran that were responsible for attacking the US warships
• The US “disabled” two unladen Iranian-flagged oil tankers, according to US officials
• Iran seized the tanker Ocean Koi in the Gulf of Oman, which appeared to be carrying Iranian oil
Hormuz
• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping since Tuesday following the US-Iran clashes
• A Qatari LNG tanker, Al Kharaitiyat, is attempting to transit the strait, which would mark Qatar’s first export from the region since the war began
• Saudi Aramco and UAE’s Adnoc have managed to move some crude cargoes through the strait despite Iran’s effective closure of the waterway
Impacts
• The world has burned through oil inventories at record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf, eating into buffers that protect against supply shocks
• Chinese energy imports fell sharply in April, with crude cargoes dropping about 20% year-on-year to 38.47 million tons and gas falling about 13% to 8.42 million tons
• Global food prices climbed to their highest level in more than three years as the Iran war disrupted supply chains, with the UN food-commodity index gaining 1.6% in April
• Iran’s record internet blackout is taking a heavy toll on private businesses, with warnings it could lead to mass layoffs and closures
International Response
• The US imposed sanctions on three Chinese firms for providing satellite imagery to Iran, enabling its military strikes on American forces in the Middle East
• The UK will deploy HMS Dragon warship to the Middle East as part of planning for a European-led mission to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz once there’s a stable ceasefire
• Iran is ramping up trade with China via rail to bypass the US blockade, with cargo trains from Xi’an to Tehran increasing from one per week to one every three or four days
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA/SATURDAY AFTERNOON
More “Love Taps”? US Reportedly Struck 4 Iranian Tankers As Qatari LNG Tanker Traverses Strait
Saturday, May 09, 2026 – 01:30 PM
Summary
US reportedly struck 4 Iranian oil tankers attempting to traverse the Strait
Qatari LNG Tanker entered the Strait for first time since start of war
US continues to await a formal response from Tehran on a proposal aimed at ending the war
The odds of a permanent peace deal by the end of May have faded notably (now just 25%)…
US Reportedly Struck 4 Iranian Oil Tankers Entering The Strait
Multiple accounts across social media are reporting that four tankers were apparently struck or disabled by the U.S. forces near Iran’s Jask area.
@EGYOSINT notes that satellite imagery shows one tanker on fire and extensive oil spills, including leaks from two tankers, with another spill detected about 7.4 kilometers from the anchorage site.
@Merrux confirmed that US forces hit an Iranian oil tanker near the port city of Bandar Jask last night.
The vessel is currently on fire. It remains unclear if other tankers were also hit, though smoke is rising from them. The tanker is visibly ablaze, there has been no response from Iran.
Presumably these are just more “love taps” and do not represent any threat to the so-called ‘ceasefire’.
Iran Keeps US Waiting On Formal Response To Peace Proposal
A state of relative calm prevailed around the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, after days of sporadic flareups, as the Trump administration continues to await a formal response from Tehran on a U.S. proposal aimed at ending the war and reopening the Hormuz chokepoint, following last week’s clashes between Iranian and U.S. naval forces in the world’s most critical waterway.
As Times of Israel reports, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that Washington expected a response within hours and President Donald Trump later said it would likely be submitted “tonight.”
But a day later, there was no sign of movement from Iran on the proposal, which would formally end the war before talks on more contentious issues, including the Iranian nuclear program.
With US President Donald Trump due to begin a long-awaited visit to China next week, there has been mounting pressure to draw a line under the conflict, which has thrown energy markets into turmoil and posed a growing threat to the world economy.
As Tehran kept Washington waiting for its response after saying Friday it was not paying attention to “deadlines,” the Islamic Republic’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called into question the reliability of the US leadership in a call with his Turkish counterpart.
“The recent escalation of tensions by American forces in the Persian Gulf and their numerous actions in violating the ceasefire have added to suspicions about the motivation and seriousness of the American side in the path of diplomacy,” he said, according to an Iranian account of the call published by the ISNA news agency.
While there were no official signs of a breakthrough in negotiations as of early Saturday morning, new ship data from the Hormuz area may suggest that positive developments are ahead.
END
IRAN/USA ISRAEL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON
Iran Responds To US Peace Proposal, While Threatening ‘Decisive’ Strike On UK, French Warships If They Approach Strait
Sunday, May 10, 2026 – 02:35 PM
Summary
Iran warns of ‘decisive, immediate’ response to British or French warships approaching Hormuz Strait.
Iran responds Sunday to US peace proposal, finally submitting something official to Pakistan. Details not initially disclosed. Trump TS: Iran “playing games with the United States.”
IRGC new warning: will unleash “heavy attack” on US bases in region if more Hormuz aggression persists.
The still not publicly seen Supreme Leader has met with a top Iranian military commander to talk ‘readiness’ against US-Israeli aggression.
Iran: We’ll Immediately Strike French & British if they Approach Strait
Iran has newly warned of “a decisive and immediate response” to any deployment of European military vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and has further declared that the Islamic Republic alone controls security in the strategic waterway. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi issued the warning Sunday in a post on X after France and Britain announced plans to deploy warships to the region.
“Whether in times of war or peace, only the Islamic Republic of Iran can establish security in this strait and will not allow any country to interfere in such matters,” he said.
Gharibabadi said France plans to deploy its flagship aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, while Britain plans to send a warship to the area under the stated goal of protecting freedom of navigation. Already these Western allied assets are moving through the Suez Canal as of days ago.
“Any deployment and stationing of extra-regional destroyers around the Strait of Hormuz, under the pretext of protecting shipping, is nothing but an escalation of the crisis, the militarization of a vital waterway, and an attempt to cover up the true root of insecurity in the region,” he stated.
But France and Britain have previously sought to clarify that their warships will remain largely in a background support role when compared to the US naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman region. Their ships would only directly join Persian Gulf operations only once the war ended, according to reports.
Trump: Iran is Playing Games With the United States
New Sunday Truth Social statement soon on the heels of Tehran submitting its response to the US peace proposal, via Pakistan:
Iran Finally Responds To US
After days of waiting, Iran has submitted its response to the latest US peace proposal to mediator Pakistan, despite the recent flare-up in renewed exchanges of fire in the contested Strait of Hormuz this past week.
“Iran has submitted its response to the latest US proposal to end 10 weeks of war, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported on Sunday, without providing any further details,” Bloomberg confirms in a fresh headline. “Tehran hasn’t yet given any public indication it would accept President Donald Trump’s plan that stipulates Iran permits passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Washington ends its blockade on Iranian ports in the next month.”
IRAN REPLY TO US PROPOSAL INCLUDES ENDING WAR ON ALL FRONTS: TV
This comes as Qatar’s PM has warned Iran that using the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure card, to choke the global economy, “would only lead to deepening the crisis” – and amid reports there could still be sporadic attacks on Gulf countries like the UAE. According to more of the limited details:
Sources in both camps have told Reuters the latest peace efforts are aimed at a temporary memorandum of understanding to halt the war and allow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while they discuss a fuller deal, which would have to address intractable disputes such as Iran’s nuclear program.
The latest from Iran’s president:
President Trump told Fox News days ago, “They want to make a deal. We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal.” He had said if this happens “it’ll be over quickly” and oil prices will plummet.
IRGC Fresh Warning on US Bases
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned any attack on Iranian oil tankers and commercial ships will be met with assaults on US bases and “enemy ships” in the region, Al Jazeera reports.
“Warning! Any aggression against the oil tankers and commercial vessels of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be met with a heavy attack on one of the American centers in the region and the enemy’s ships,” the IRGC Navy said in the statement.
Tehran is accusing the US side of severely violating the ceasefire earlier this week, by firing on and disabling two Iranian-flagged tankers trying to reach Iranian ports. State media reviewed of these hostile incidents:
In a statement, the spokesman for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said the “aggressive, terrorist and marauding US military” had targeted an Iranian oil tanker sailing from Iran’s coastal waters near Jask toward the Strait of Hormuz, as well as another vessel entering the strategic waterway near the UAE port of Fujairah.
The spokesman also said civilian areas along the coasts of Bandar Khamir, Sirik and Qeshm Island came under aerial attacks carried out “with the cooperation of some regional countries.”
The IRGC further said it will respond “powerfully and without the slightest hesitation” to any aggression or attack. Indeed there are reports that during the past week’s skirmishes Iran fired on three US warships seeking to exit waters of Iran’s coast.
Ayatollah Meets With Military Commander
We reported earlier that in an official update Iran said that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had been ‘moderately injured’ but is recovering, and he had met with the president of the Islamic Republic. On Sunday he also met with a top military commader, per state Mehr, which writes: “In a meeting with Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, Commander of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters Major General Ali Abdollahi presented a comprehensive report on the preparedness of the powerful Armed Forces of the country to confront enemies’ strategic mistake.”
According to more of the state readout:
Abdollahi said “all fighters of Islam” possess high readiness in terms of morale, defensive and offensive preparedness, strategic plans, and the equipment and weaponry required to confront hostile actions by the “American-Zionist enemies.”
He warned that if the enemies commit any “strategic mistake, aggression, or invasion,” Iranian forces would respond “swiftly, intensely, and powerfully.”
The commander also assured the Leader that the armed forces would, “with full obedience” to his orders, defend “the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, our beloved land Iran, sovereignty, national interests, and the brave Iranian nation until the last breath and to the death.”
During the meeting, Ayatollah Khamenei praised the country’s armed forces and issued new directives for continuing action and confronting enemies decisively following the 40-day US-Israeli war against the country.
The Wall Street Journal wrote Saturday of the Ayatollah, “A government official claimed Khamenei, who hasn’t been seen in public since that attack, is now in good health.” However, there’s still a lot of speculation on his role in national decision-making, and over whether he will ever make a public appearance.
SUNDAY EVENING;
“They’ll Be Laughing No Longer”: Trump Rejects Iran Peace Deal Response As “Totally Unacceptable”
Iran warns of ‘decisive, immediate’ response to British or French warships approaching Hormuz Strait.
Iran responds Sunday to US peace proposal, finally submitting something official to Pakistan. Details not initially disclosed. Trump TS: Iran “playing games with the United States.”
IRGC new warning: will unleash “heavy attack” on US bases in region if more Hormuz aggression persists.
President Trump has just issued a statement on his TruthSocial feed rejecting ‘unacceptable’ Iranian proposal for ending war.
“I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called “Representatives.”
I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!
Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
Iran offered to transfer some of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country, but rejected the idea of dismantling its nuclear facilities, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Iran disputed the report, according to Iran’s semi-official news agency Tasnim.
And with the fragile ceasefire still holding for now, the odds of a peace deal by the end of May have plummeted.
Iran: We’ll Immediately Strike French & British if they Approach Strait
Iran has newly warned of “a decisive and immediate response” to any deployment of European military vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and has further declared that the Islamic Republic alone controls security in the strategic waterway. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi issued the warning Sunday in a post on X after France and Britain announced plans to deploy warships to the region.
“Whether in times of war or peace, only the Islamic Republic of Iran can establish security in this strait and will not allow any country to interfere in such matters,” he said.
Gharibabadi said France plans to deploy its flagship aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, while Britain plans to send a warship to the area under the stated goal of protecting freedom of navigation. Already these Western allied assets are moving through the Suez Canal as of days ago.
“Any deployment and stationing of extra-regional destroyers around the Strait of Hormuz, under the pretext of protecting shipping, is nothing but an escalation of the crisis, the militarization of a vital waterway, and an attempt to cover up the true root of insecurity in the region,” he stated.
end
Monday morning….
Very Wide Gap Between US & Iranian Positions As Tehran Blasts White House ‘Unreasonable Demands’
Summary
Iran Foreign Ministry: “Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous.” However, US officials insist on their “unreasonable demands.“
Saudi Arabia condemns Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday.
Qatari LNG tanker abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz chokepoint after earlier in weekend an initial one made it through – an unprecedented first for a Qatari tanker of the war.
Israeli reservist killed in Hezbollah drone attack on northern Israel as Lebanon war intensifies.
It is clear there remains a huge gap between the positions of Washington and Tehran, after the past days saw proposal and counterproposal submitted via Pakistan, with the White House issuing its final response over the weekend, as President Trump called it ‘unacceptable’.
According to new Monday words from Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, “Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous.” However, US officials continue to insist on their “unreasonable demands,” Baghaei stressed. He described that Iran’s demands for the war to stop, for the US to lift its blockade, and the release Iran’s frozen assets, remain legitimate. Further, Tehran is demanding safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, along with establishing security in the region and in Lebanon.
Senior Iranian military official Mohsen Rezaee to Tasnim: There Is No Clear Prospect for a Political Agreement With the United States
“Unfortunately, the US continues to insist on its one-sided view,” Baghaei added of the “reasonable, generous offer” built around Iran’s national interests. Iran has strongly suggested that the US is actually too influenced by driving Israeli interests, not American priorities.
But per WSJ, Washington’s focus remains on the nuclear issue, which Iran considers a non-starter in negotiations: “The president on Sunday said a multipage response that Iran sent to the U.S. proposal to end the war, which didn’t include commitments about Tehran’s nuclear program, was unacceptable,” the publication writes.
Iran's FM Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei:
Iran has proven to be a responsible power in the region, and at the same time, we are not bullies — rather, we are anti-bullies. Just look at our conduct.
Were we the ones who launched a military campaign against America thousands of miles… pic.twitter.com/q6fz3fi75A
Saudi Arabia has condemned and blasted Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday, according to a new Foreign Ministry statement. The UAE had intercepted two drones coming from Iran, while Qatar said a drone attack hit a cargo ship coming from Abu Dhabi in its waters. Kuwait in turn also said its air defenses had engaged hostile drones that entered its airspace. Kuwait, which borders Iran, has become a kind of front line for Iranian attacks and drone activity.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry reiterated its support and backing of all measures taken by Gulf states to protect their security and stability, saying, “The Kingdom demands an immediate halt to the blatant attacks on the territories and territorial waters of Gulf states, and to any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz or disrupt international waterways.”
“It emphasizes the importance of adhering to the protection of international maritime routes in accordance with relevant international laws,” the ministry added.
END
MONDAY MID MORNING”
Oil Jumps As Trump Says Mulling Restart Of Project Freedom, Which Could Mean New Hormuz Clashes With Iran
Monday, May 11, 2026 – 10:40 AM
Summary
Trump mulls restarting Project Freedom in Hormuz and says forcibly retrieving ‘nuclear dust’ is still on the table, oil jumps on headline.
Iran Foreign Ministry: “Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous.” However, US officials insist on their “unreasonable demands.“
Saudi Arabia condemns Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday.
Qatari LNG tanker abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz chokepoint after earlier in weekend an initial one made it through – an unprecedented first for a Qatari tanker of the war.
Israeli reservist killed in Hezbollah drone attack on northern Israel as Lebanon war intensifies.
Fox News is reporting that President Trump is considering renewing Project Freedom, pushing oil up. According to the developing story:
President Donald Trump has stated in an interview with Fox News that he is considering renewing Project Freedom, a military operation originally launched to secure the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This operation, involving significant U.S. naval assets, had been paused amid diplomatic efforts with Iran. The initial pause was influenced by diplomatic progress mediated by Pakistan, although recent developments suggest a potential escalation.
However, the reality is that the de facto US naval blockade has remained in place. The Iranians last week fired on US warships which were escorting foreign vessels through the strait. Since then there’s been an uneasy calm amid stalled negotiations. There’s really no movement on either side. Trump indicated in the fresh comments that all of this could be part of a larger operation, and strangely a bit of a contradictory stance: he said of Iran’s “hardline leaders” that “they are going to fold” and that “I will deal with them until they make a deal”. Of course, the very label of ‘hardline’ would suggest the opposite.
The same Fox correspondent was told by Trump that forcibly retrieving Iran’s ‘nuclear dust’ is still on the table:
It is clear there remains a huge gap between the positions of Washington and Tehran, after the past days saw proposal and counterproposal submitted via Pakistan, with the White House issuing its final response over the weekend, as President Trump called it ‘unacceptable’.
According to new Monday words from Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, “Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous.” However, US officials continue to insist on their “unreasonable demands,” Baghaei stressed. He described that Iran’s demands for the war to stop, for the US to lift its blockade, and the release Iran’s frozen assets, remain legitimate. Further, Tehran is demanding safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, along with establishing security in the region and in Lebanon.
Senior Iranian military official Mohsen Rezaee to Tasnim: There Is No Clear Prospect for a Political Agreement With the United States
“Unfortunately, the US continues to insist on its one-sided view,” Baghaei added of the “reasonable, generous offer” built around Iran’s national interests. Iran has strongly suggested that the US is actually too influenced by driving Israeli interests, not American priorities.
But per WSJ, Washington’s focus remains on the nuclear issue, which Iran considers a non-starter in negotiations: “The president on Sunday said a multipage response that Iran sent to the U.S. proposal to end the war, which didn’t include commitments about Tehran’s nuclear program, was unacceptable,” the publication writes.
END
MONDAY AFTERNOON
Trump: Iran’s Response A “Piece Of Garbage”, Puts Ceasefire “On Life Support”
Monday, May 11, 2026 – 12:20 PM
Summary
US President blasts ‘piece of garbage’ Iran response, says ceasefire on ‘life support’.
Trump mulls restarting Project Freedom in Hormuz and says forcibly retrieving ‘nuclear dust’ is still on the table, oil jumps on headline.
Iran Foreign Ministry: “Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous.” However, US officials insist on their “unreasonable demands.“
Saudi Arabia condemns Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday.
Qatari LNG tanker abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz chokepoint after earlier in weekend an initial one made it through – an unprecedented first for a Qatari tanker of the war.
Israeli reservist killed in Hezbollah drone attack on northern Israel as Lebanon war intensifies.
The latest from President Trump via Fox, who also said he sees a 1% chance of an Iran deal materializing and succeeding, as even the ceasefire is one of “the weakest, on life support“:
President Donald Trump called out the “piece of garbage” peace proposal from Iran on Monday from the Oval Office, saying only “stupid people” in Iran are questioning his resolve in guaranteeing Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.
The latest Iranian proposal reneged on a past vow to give up enriched uranium.
None of this bodes well for the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz opening up anytime soon. Oil prices have reflected general pessimism at the start of this week.
Trump Might Fully Restart Project Freedom
Fox News is reporting that President Trump is considering renewing Project Freedom, pushing oil up. According to the developing story:
President Donald Trump has stated in an interview with Fox News that he is considering renewing Project Freedom, a military operation originally launched to secure the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This operation, involving significant U.S. naval assets, had been paused amid diplomatic efforts with Iran. The initial pause was influenced by diplomatic progress mediated by Pakistan, although recent developments suggest a potential escalation.
However, the reality is that the de facto US naval blockade has remained in place. The Iranians last week fired on US warships which were escorting foreign vessels through the strait. Since then there’s been an uneasy calm amid stalled negotiations. There’s really no movement on either side. Trump indicated in the fresh comments that all of this could be part of a larger operation, and strangely a bit of a contradictory stance: he said of Iran’s “hardline leaders” that “they are going to fold” and that “I will deal with them until they make a deal”. Of course, the very label of ‘hardline’ would suggest the opposite.
The same Fox correspondent was told by Trump that forcibly retrieving Iran’s ‘nuclear dust’ is still on the table:
Iran Publicly Discloses Supreme Leader’s Status For First Time: ‘Marginally Injured’
Saturday, May 09, 2026 – 01:25 PM
The Iranian government has for the first time officially weighed in on the health of new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who was injured in the opening strikes of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, which killed the younger Khamenei’s father and wife.
“A government official claimed Khamenei, who hasn’t been seen in public since that attack, is now in good health,” The Wall Street Journal writes Saturday.
He hasn’t been seen in public since the war began, and even official statements have been read aloud on state media broadcasts. There have since been conflict reports. However, according to the latest:
Yet the chief of protocol for the supreme leader’s office, Mozaher Hosseini, said on Friday that Khamenei is in “complete health,” stressing that he has only been “marginally injured” on his foot and lower back and hit by “a small piece of shrapnel had hit him behind the ear.”
“The enemy is spreading all kinds of rumors and false claims. They want to see him and find him, but people should be patient and not rush. He will speak to you when the time is right,” Hosseini told a crowd in Tehran.
Prior international reports suggested he was being treated for severe burns and that he could undergo surgery, and resorts to communicating commands to lower officials via low-tech means, including written and hand delivered messages, in order to avoid Israeli or US intelligence intercepting signals related to his whereabouts.
Regional and Gulf media have also summarized of the latest official Iranian description of the Ayatollah’s health, that “there were no indications of a serious deterioration in his condition.”
And, “According to Iranian media reports, the official stated that medical examinations confirmed Mojtaba Khamenei’s condition was completely stable. He added that the injury did not require complex surgery. Furthermore, he is undergoing only routine medical monitoring to ensure his well-being.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian revealed on Thursday that he for the first time recently held a meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei, at an undisclosed location, and that the encounter was a long and productive one. State media said it was two-and-a-half hours.
“What stood out more than any other topic in the meeting was the way of dealing, the type of outlook, and the humble and deeply friendly manner of conduct by the leader of the revolution,” Pezeshkian described. He characterized the new Ayatollah’s approach as “a model based on taking responsibility, being close to the people, and truly listening to issues and problems.”
Western officials and intelligence have all the while been seeking to assess just who is ultimately in charge of running the country. There have been reports of a growing split between the IRGC military apparatus and the Islamic Republic’s civilian leadership. However, none of these reports are confirmable, but it’s largely only guesswork by those far outside the country
end
Iran-Linked Media Floats Data Tax On Hormuz Undersea Internet Cables
Sunday, May 10, 2026 – 09:55 AM
An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-linked media outlet has signaled that submarine fiber-optic cables running through the Strait of Hormuz remain in Tehran’s crosshairs.
Tehran views Hormuz not only as an energy chokepoint but also as a digital chokepoint, with undersea cables beaming internet across the Gulf and into the global network.
Tasnim published an article titled “Three Practical Steps for Generating Revenue from Strait of Hormuz Internet Cables,” pointing out that Tehran must reassess how it exercises sovereignty over the strategic maritime chokepoint.
The IRGC-linked outlet said that submarine fiber-optic cables in the critical waterway facilitate more than $10 trillion in financial transactions each day, and claimed that Iran has been deprived of the economic and sovereign benefits tied to the digital economy.
Tasnim warned that any disruption, cut, or damage to these cables, whether from natural causes or ship anchors, could impose heavy losses on the world’s economy.
“These cables, which are laid on the seabed using advanced technologies such as DWDM and double-armored standards, carry the bulk of international internet traffic, cloud synchronization, enterprise virtual private networks, voice traffic, and financial-payment networks. From the perspective of the digital economy, any disruption, outage, or damage to these communications highways, whether from natural incidents or ship anchors, can cause irreparable losses,” the outlet stated.
Tasnim lists three steps for how Iran should begin imposing fees on internet traffic routed through Hormuz:
Licensing and tolls: Iran should require telecom consortia and cable operators to obtain permits for laying and operating cables through the strait, with initial licensing fees and annual renewal payments.
Iranian legal jurisdiction over tech firms: Major technology companies using the cables, including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, should be required to operate officially under Iranian law and cooperate with Iranian technology firms, knowledge-based companies, and media entities.
Iranian control over maintenance and repair: Iran should develop the technical infrastructure to control or participate in the maintenance and repair of the cables, turning cable servicing into both a revenue stream and a sovereignty tool.
Beyond the quest to charge data fees, Tehran has already imposed fees or tolls on vessels passing through the strait.
Last week, Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority pushed forward with a new protocol for commercial vessels transiting the strait. It’s unclear whether the protocol will incur a fee.
However, Iranians have made “demands for payments, payments for toll fees, as we say, for those vessels to be granted permission to sail,” Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of maritime risk consultancy Marisks, told CNN.
The direct result of Tehran’s attempt to position itself as the gatekeeper of the Hormuz chokepoint, across energy, freight, and potentially digital traffic, will be to accelerate global efforts to bypass the strait. That means rerouting pipelines, tanker traffic, commercial shipping, and eventually undersea cable infrastructure away from Iran’s strait.
A committee comprising three senior Iraqi figures is close to finalizing an “executive plan” to disarm factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) that enjoy support from Iran, Asharq Al-Awsatreported on 8 May.
Development of the plan, which will be presented to US officials in the next few days, comes amid expected changes to the leadership of key security agencies under the incoming government of Ali al-Zaidi.
Zaidi was nominated by the Shia-majority Coordination Framework (CF) political bloc on April 27 as the consensus candidate to succeed Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. According to sources speaking to the Saudi newspaper, the three-member committee includes Zaidi, Sudani, and the leader of the Badr Organization, Hadi al-Amiri.
Washington has intensified pressure on Iraq’s ruling Shia political parties to disarm the anti-terrorist militias and prevent their representatives from participating in the new government.
The sources revealed that the committee has held secret negotiations with leaders of the factions, providing their leaders with “ideas on how to disarm and integrate fighters.”
Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Badr Organization leader Amiri, who enjoys close relations with Iran, “was supposed to help build trust with the factions and persuade them to engage with the state.” However, some meetings “did not proceed calmly” due to the request to disarm.
A spokesperson for one faction within the PMF said that Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and Harakat al-Nujaba rejected handing over their weapons to any party whatsoever. The spokesperson, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the three factions were “prepared to pay any price resulting from their refusal to disarm.”
The PMF were created in 2014 with support from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force to fight ISIS and were later formally incorporated into the Iraqi armed forces.
During the war between the US and Iran that began on 28 February, the US air force bombed PMF positions across the country, while the resistance factions carried out drone attacks against US bases in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR) and the US embassy in Baghdad.
In a phone call last Wednesday, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth reportedly told Zaidi that Washington that the legitimacy of his incoming government would depend on its ability to distance the armed factions from the apparatus of the state.
A senior political official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the three-man committee had, under mounting US pressure, accelerated its work in recent weeks to disarm the factions. The official added that the executive plan included restructuring the PMF and ensuring it hands over its heavy and medium weapons, while the US is pressuring Baghdad to disband the PMF entirely.
Asharq Al-Awsat reported that former US General David Petraeus may visit Baghdad this week to ensure that “the new government fully severs its ties with the armed factions.
Petraeus, who holds no formal government position currently, commanded the 101st Airborne Division during the 2003 invasion that toppled the government of Saddam Hussein. He later became CIA director, overseeing the covert war in Syria in partnership with Al-Qaeda.
In 2004, he worked with some of the leaders of the Iran-backed armed factions, including Hadi al-Amiri, to establish a new Iraqi police force after Iraq’s army and police were disbanded by the US occupation head, Paul Bremer.
Iraqi police commandos operating under Petraeus and Iraq’s Ministry of Interior, in particular the Wolf Brigade, were known for abducting, killing, and torturing Sunni Muslims. Some of the police commandos were trained by US commander James Steele, who was known for running death squads in El Salvador in the 1980’s.
On Friday, Republican Party member Malik Francis toldShafaq News Agency that the US administration “appears so far to be cautious in its dealings with Ali al-Zaidi, but it is not showing a direct hostile stance towards him.”
Francis stated that Washington is not yet giving Zaidi a “blank check,” but at the same time, it is not treating him as an adversary. On Thursday, the US Treasury Department announced it had imposed new sanctions on a list of Iraqi individuals and companies for their alleged connection to Iran.
Politicians from the CF said the sanctions may have been intended to “block undesirable nominations” to posts in the new government and “steer the process toward other candidates.”
The PMU factions are reportedly exploring the possibility of avoiding direct participation in the new government, while backing figures described as independent for ministerial positions to maintain indirect influence over those posts.
END
BAHRAIN/IRAN MILITIA
Bahrain Intensifies Crackdown On Shia Communities, Arrests Dozens Over Alleged IRGC Links
Bahrain’s Interior Ministry announced on Saturday the arrest of 41 citizens, including multiple Shia religious leaders, over alleged ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The ministry said security services uncovered the alleged network through “investigations, security reports, and previous Public Prosecution cases related to espionage involving foreign entities.” The detainees are accused of “espionage involving foreign entities and sympathy with blatant Iranian aggression.”
Around 30 Shia Muslim clerics were among the 41 arrested, as the Gulf monarchy intensifies a campaign of raids and arrests predominantly targeting Shia religious figures and seminary teachers in Bahrain.
The arrests mark a new security escalation by Manama and form part of a continued policy of restrictions against clerics in the country. The Bahrain News Agency reported that legal proceedings are now underway against the 41 detainees.
Earlier this week, Bahrain stripped three lawmakers of their seats in parliament after they publicly criticized the monarchy’s crackdown on dissent over its support for the US–Israeli war on Iran:
In a vote in Manama on Thursday, the Bahraini House of Representatives revoked the memberships of Abdulnabi Salman, Mahdi al-Shuwaikh, and Mamdouh al-Saleh. The three lawmakers publicly opposed the monarchy’s move last week to revoke the citizenship of 69 Bahrainis and their families, accusing them of “sympathizing with Iran.”
Bahrain has a majority Shia population but is ruled by the Sunni Al-Khalifa royal family. The kingdom hosts the largest US naval base in the region, home to the US Fifth Fleet.
That decision came less than two weeks after Bahrain revoked the citizenship of 69 people over alleged support for Iranian retaliatory attacks on the country.
The Bahrain Institute for Rights and Democracy described the move as “dangerous” and a “blatant abuse of power,” saying the individuals had not been publicly named and that their legal status remained unclear.
Since the launch of the US-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, Bahrain has escalated a sweeping domestic crackdown tied to alleged support for Tehran and opposition to the country’s western alignments.
Bahrain’s regime has intensified a sweeping campaign of raids and arrests targeting Shiite religious scholars, including prominent cleric and seminary professor Sheikh Mahmoud Al-A’ali, amid the systematic crackdown tied to political expression and public positions regarding the war against #Iran
Authorities have reportedly arrested hundreds of people since then, targeting Shia communities, banning public gatherings, detaining activists, and jailing dissidents.
In March, Bahraini authorities tortured Shia activist Mohammad al-Mousawi to death after accusing him of being an Iranian spy, with AP citing witnesses who described signs of beatings, cable whippings, and electrocution burns on his body.
END
ISRAEL/IRAQ/IRAN
Secret Israeli Base Hidden In Iraqi Desert Backed Operations Inside Iran
Sunday, May 10, 2026 – 03:10 PM
In a revelation sure to outrage Baghdad and broad swathes of the Iraqi public, Israel established a secret military base in Iraq’s desert region to support air operations against Iran, related to the start of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday.
Israeli forces even at one point launched airstrikes early in the conflict on Iraqi troops who approached the site and risked exposing it, per sources cited in the report. The outpost was reportedly erected under extreme secrecy shortly before the US and Israel launched the surprise, unprovoked aerial bombardment of Iran, and at a moment Tehran thought it was negotiating with Washington.
The WSJ further said the secret base was placed there with US awareness and used it as a logistics hub for Israeli air force operations, further with Israeli special forces operating.
According to details in the report, the site was to assist in any emergency special forces operations connected with the bombing raids on nearby Iran:
Search-and-rescue teams were positioned there in case Israeli pilots were downed. None have been. When a U.S. F-15 was shot down near Isfahan, Israel offered to help, but U.S. forces managed the rescue of two airmen themselves, one of the people said. Israel did carry out airstrikes to help protect the operation.
The Israeli base was almost discovered in early March. Iraqi state media said a local shepherd reported unusual military activity in the area, including helicopter flights, and the Iraqi military sent troops to investigate. Israel kept them at bay with airstrikes, one of the people familiar with the matter said.
In the end, no rescue missions became necessary, or at least as far as public awareness goes. There may be much that happened related to the outpost which remains classified, however.
The report further describes that after a US F-15 fighter jet was downed near Isfahan, Israel offered assistance, but US forces recovered the two crew members on their own. Strangely, the Pentagon has still issued nothing confirmable related to that operation, and not even the identities of the rescued pilots are as yet known.
The base almost was exposed in early March after Iraqi state media reported that a shepherd spotted suspicious military activity in the area, including helicopter movements, triggering an Iraqi military investigation.
Certainly if Iraqi forces had discovered it, the base would have been immediately attacked, especially by pro-Iran paramilitary forces.
As the WSJ story becomes more well-known inside Iraq this weekend, rising anger and outrage is expected, at a sensitive moment that a new future Iraqi prime minister has been tapped.
“This reckless operation was carried out without coordination or approval,” Qais Al-Muhammadawi, deputy commander of Iraq’s Joint Operations Command, told Iraqi state media following the March incident.
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL
Soaring Death Toll In Lebanon Toll As Full-Fledged Israel, Hezbollah Fighting Returns
Sunday, May 10, 2026 – 11:40 AM
Full-fledged war has returned to Lebanon as the government has announced that at least 23 people have been killed by Israeli airstrikes on Saturday alone.
Stretching back into Friday, this brings the total death count to at least 50 killed over the past 24 hours of Israeli bombings, also as Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) late on Saturday said rescue operations were still ongoing for bystanders missing underneath the rubble.
Heavy bombing has not ceased in southern Lebanon, as the Israeli military says it’s trying to root out and destroy Hezbollah, including raids on the districts of Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil and Sidon, among others. Several were also killed in Tyre on Friday.
But Israeli forces have also absorbed casualties, with The Times of Israel describing the following serious drone strikes launched from Lebanon:
On Saturday, the terror group launched several salvos of explosive-laden drones and rockets at Israeli forces. One drone struck Israeli territory, close to the border with Lebanon, seriously injuring a reservist soldier and moderately wounding a reservist officer and another reservist soldier.
The troops were taken to Galilee Medical Center, which said the seriously wounded soldier underwent surgery and was now stable in the intensive care unit. The moderately wounded troops were scheduled for surgery later.
In another incident, the military said an explosive drone struck an unmanned engineering vehicle in southern Lebanon, causing damage. No injuries were caused.
There are reports of the IDF issuing evacuation orders for various areas, only to attack the so-called safe zones. For example the below comes via Israeli sources:
“In light of the Hezbollah terror organization’s violations of the ceasefire agreement, the IDF is forced to act against it with force and does not intend to harm you,” warned army spokesman Col. Avichay Adraee.
Meanwhile, Lebanese media reported that Israeli airstrikes on Saturday killed at least 12 people, including in areas where no evacuation orders were issued.
Starting in late April a 10-day ceasefire brokered by Washington took effect, even as Israeli forces remain deployed in a strip of Lebanese territory several miles deep along the border. That appears to be effectively collapsed, also as Israel has been upping its targeting of Beirut suburbs of late.
Israel calls the Lebanese strip of land now occupied by IDF troops a ‘buffer zone’ – but Lebanon sees it as a land grab. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally and leader of the Amal Movement – which is the other big Shia organization in Lebanon – has recently stated that if Israel “maintains its occupation, whether of areas, positions, or by drawing yellow lines, it will smell the scent of resistance every day.” He added: “If they insist on remaining, they will face resistance, and our history bears witness to that.”
Israeli airstrikes on vehicles south of Beirut killed 4 people, while strikes in southern Lebanon killed at least 13, state media and the Health Ministry said.
Lebanese officials have also charged Israel with trying to erase the Lebanese presence in southern Lebanon in a genocidal act, or ‘cultural genocide’.
This after Israeli forces have carried out demolitions in southern villages, targeting what they describe as Hezbollah infrastructure embedded in civilian areas.
end
STRAIT OF HORMUZ/QATARI TANKER
Qatari LNG Tanker Abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz Chokepoint After Weekend Transit Breakthrough
Monday, May 11, 2026 – 07:45 AM
Day 72 of the U.S.-Iran conflict opened with yet another failed diplomatic off-ramp.
Tehran on Sunday submitted a counterproposal to the Trump administration’s plan to end the war, but President Trump swiftly rejected it as “totally unacceptable,” pushing WTI crude futures roughly 3% higher to $98 a barrel as traders slightly repriced the war-risk premium higher for a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption.
Tehran’s counterproposal was a major focus over the weekend, but what caught our attention Saturday morning was a note from Bloomberg reporter Stephen Stapczynski citing ship-tracking data showing that an LNG tanker had successfully transited the critical waterway unharmed.
In fact, this was the first time Qatar had exported LNG through the Strait since the war began ten weeks ago. The tanker later made a port call in Pakistan.
By Monday morning, Stapczynski was tracking another fully loaded LNG tanker called “Mihzem.”
“Another Qatar LNG shipment is nearing the Strait of Hormuz, bound for Pakistan,” Stapczynski wrote on X.
He added, “Pakistan is dealing with a gas shortage, and has negotiated with Iran for several LNG shipments. If successful, this would be the second LNG cargo to transit Hormuz for Pakistan in a few days.”
Stapczynski’s X post and report about the second Qatar LNG tanker attempting to transit the maritime chokepoint came early Monday.
By 0700 ET, new ship-tracking data showed that the Mihzem abruptly reversed course roughly 20 miles before reaching Hormuz Island.
There was no official explanation for the U-turn, leaving open the possibility of security concerns and/or transit clearance issues. It is certainly not a good sign for hopes that Hormuz tensions are abating.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/
ROBERT H…
“U.S. Military Inferiority”? Russia Develops “Son of Oreshnik”, More Advanced Long Range Hypersonic Ballistic Missile – Global ResearchGlobal Research – Centre for Research on Globalization
Months ago I wrote a successor was coming to Oreshnik. But it is not quite as is stated here.
Oreshnik is quite able to destroy a fixed target area by sheer force of impact let alone with actual munitions in a concentrated area. When you apply Avanguard thinking into multiple swarms of warhead strikes one gets multiple points of targets destroyed with one missile. So it matters not if you send one missile as you can destroy 6-8 points of contact at the same time. It is why Zelensky was told multiple centers within Kiev would be destroyed and why Embassy personnel should leave. If there is a next strike do not be surprised to see multiple points of destruction at the same time. It is not about Ukraine but a warning to Europe.
If nuclear warheads were used then multiple select strikes would take a much wider targeted area with greater precision. At MACH 20 you do not survive such strikes either in a single location or multiple ones.
Europe will hit tank bottoms this month. Do people even begin to understand what this means for a refinery process? Does anyone in Europe realize that this will lead to rationing of jet fuel and diesel. This will translate into lower food availability and price increase. NO AMOUNT of shipments from America will stop the reality. And one can question why AMerica is doing this because it will affect prices for same in America? And NO Russia cannot and will not rescue Europe. Apart from no relationship that would foster such a move. The combination of existing customers and new like Japan have seized capacity before Europe woke up. To understand the magnitude of the problem. Think about 20% of global supply of energy having been removed from the supply chain for the current duration of supply disruption. This does not account for process damage with refineries being damaged which takes much longer to fix. And there are real limits to how far back you can dial a refinery output. Because if you shut it down it could months before you start back up. It is not like turning a key in a car.
United States should hit tank bottoms sometime in early July. No amount of bluster from Ottawa or Washington is going to change factual realities of process and supply logistics. This means much higher fuel costs and supply disruptions across North America. Having managed 18,000 outbound trucks annually in production with inbound truck and rail deliveries logistics of flow in a supply chain is not an unknown. If you have supply hiccups everything is affected in real time. When a car is made every minute or less off an assembly line you cannot take a coffee or bathroom break and switch it off and restart. It moves regardless. And every stoppage of any kind costs. It is why even if a part is missing the line still moves and the part is replaced later at a much higher cost than if it were done on the production line. Now think about an entire supply chain that supports how you live because it is all going to be affected. And there is nothing anyone can now do. We will face the realities of a disrupted supply chain with grave consequences. It is why some countries will experience a recession and others will likely see depression like struggle. Politicians are useless in stopping this. We will all pay a price for their folly. We should also anticipate civil unrest and civil disobedience. Several years ago, when a winter storm caused power outages it was surprising that within days there fist fights in gas stations for gas and yet several miles away gas stations were operating because there was power. That was a good indication of what happens when local issues get out of hand and people do not think.
If peace came today and oil flowed into tankers, it is at least 6 months or more to first finished fuel delivery. You cannot speed up a supply chain. Sometimes things just take time to move. There is no magic that speeds up a process of conversion from raw materials to finished goods. It is NO different with energy. It will take at least years to full production recovery. Five years for damaged LNG infrastructure in places like Qatar where 17% of LNG production will be off line for upward to 5 years.
It logical to assume that we globally will experience supply chain disruptions that will affect normal daily activities from travel to product availability to price increases. The net result will be a global recession which people will talk about in 2-3 months. Because even acceptance of a problem takes time to manifest in media coverage. This is why tomorrow’s news was written yesterday.
Hollywood loves a good sequel and so does politics and pharmaceutical development.
Since Covid, there have been several attempted disease scares – Mpox, Swine flu, Bird flu, Chikungunya, Measles – but nothing has really caught the attention of audiences like the new Hantavirus frenzy.
Today’s evidence comes from DRUDGE REPORT: global effort to stop the spread. Is “flatten the curve” next?
Let’s remember how this began last year, with of course, a hantavirus death in the family of one of America’s most beloved Hollywood actors. It was Betsy Arakawa, Gene Hackman’s wife, who died February 12, 2025, from apparent hantavirus infection from rodents in the home. Terrifying image.
At that point, no regular person had ever heard of such a disease. There is a reason. It’s rare and human-to-human spread is nearly unknown. Strange that it would hit the wife of the appropriately named Gene Hackman (get it?), leading man of the prescient 1998 movie Enemy of the State.
Next up we have a reprise of the Plague Ship motif. Like the Diamond Princess, it is a cruise ship, the MV Hondius operated by Oceanwide Expeditions with 147 passengers, departing from Argentina and now anchored off Cape Verde, West Africa.
It was headed to the Canary Islands when three people died, two with lab-confirmed hantavirus. No port would allow the ship to dock. With the assistance of rescue boats, the dead have been carefully removed by workers in hazmats and masks.
A flight attendant who came in contact with a dead body is now hospitalized and in rough condition, suggesting that even coming close to a person with hantavirus is risky stuff. No one can figure out how this is even possible. So mysterious, so unusual, so terrifying, just like the movie Contagion.
This fits with the theory of Drs. Fauci and Morens that we need not worry about lab-created pathogens when animal-to-human spillover is becoming more common. This is why, they wrote in August 2020, that we must commence to “rebuilding the infrastructures of human existence, from cities to homes to workplaces, to water and sewer systems, to recreational and gatherings venues.”
Ready to opine for the press is the World Health Organization’s Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, she of Stanford University pedigree, now widely quoted as the go-to authority.
You might remember Dr. Kerkhove from the original cast of the Covid production. It was she who wrote the WHO’s report to the world following the February 2020 junket to Wuhan. (We know this from the metadata of the report, which she failed to cleanse in the rush to publication.)
“Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures,” she wrote of the CCP’s extreme lockdowns, “has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat. At a community level this is reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities.”
Many close observers credit Kerkhove’s report with inspiring the worldwide lockdown of all nations but four in the following weeks. She still works at the WHO. Hardly anyone remembers any of this. There is no mechanism in place for her to be held to account for her role.
As a result, Moderna’s stock, down dramatically from its highs, is now starting to recover. It is now up 100 percent year over year. The buy signal is strong with this one.
Looking back at the Covid prequel, there was always a flaw in the coronavirus caper, namely its short period of latency, roughly that of a cold or flu. You are infectious for a few days without symptoms while you pass it on. A genuine disease panic needs a longer period of latency. You need to be infected for weeks while spreading it far and wide.
Why is this? Because every infectious disease confronts the logic of survival. A smart virus does not kill its hosts – it needs them to infect others – but a dumb one does, which is why dumb viruses are not good candidates for pandemics.
This persistent trade-off between severity and prevalence can only be gamed by a long period of latency. That’s extremely rare and not even lab-created viruses manage this balancing act well.
As it turns out, this hantavirus does have a very long period of latency, we are assured by the Harvard School of Public Health. It has issued a pronouncement: “The incubation period – the time between when a person is infected and when they begin to experience symptoms – is usually in the range of two to three weeks, but may be as long as eight weeks.”
Two months! Imagine that. Here we might finally have our candidate for the silent killer about which Deborah Birx fantasized during the last iteration of this story.
Keep in mind that no high institution in the US has repudiated lockdowns, even if two-thirds of the public believes they were pointlessly damaging. The call for Covid Justice has now 37,300 signatures but not enough to cause the Senate, House, or any other legislative body to speak clearly that this will never be tolerated again.
To this day, the plan of the World Health Organization – which is already practicing for the next pandemic – is to push for lockdowns until vaccination in the event of a new disease scare. “Every country should apply non-pharmaceutical measures systematically and rigorously at the scale the epidemiological situation requires,” they say.
Meanwhile, the Biden plan was for a 130-day lockdown in the event of a new pandemic.
There are few mechanisms in place in any country to prevent this from happening. There are good people in government who would oppose this with strong conviction but will they even be asked their opinions? Or does this all occur with any obvious evidence of democratic volition?
Who precisely is directing and producing this sequel? No one knows for sure. Will it be a box office hit like the last time or only have a limited release to test market interest? All the ingredients are here for an Academy Award: rodents, long latency, spread through casual contact with the dead, workers in hazmat suits, no known cure, a vaccine in rushed development.
The real beauty of disease panic is that it has broad audience appeal and crosses partisan lines. National Review is all in already, as it was with Covid, and surely The Nation will join the effort in days.
These are well-worn plot devices and sequels are rarely as compelling or profitable as the original. But when one is out of other ideas – and the public clamor to indict Fauci grows by the hour – it’s always worth a shot.
Actor Samuel Monroe, Jr. on life support with MRSA pneumonia; Cleveland QB Bernie Kosar has liver transplant after sepsis was misdiagnosed for months; Giants’ Lawrence Taylor has pancreatitis; more
“Mission: Impossible” star Ving Rhames suffered a medical scare—collapsing inside a Los Angeles restaurant , TMZ has learned. A diner at the scene tells TMZ Rhames was eating with his family on Wednesday when he collapsed at his table. We’re told the 66-year-old appeared to be in and out of consciousness–and paramedics rushed him to the hospital. A rep for Ving tells TMZ he just spoke with the star, and it’s believed he got “overheated” but will be fine. He’s currently being hospitalized for observation. UPDATE 5:39 PM PT—Ving’s rep tells TMZ he’s been released from the hospital and is heading home. We’re told he feels fine and was making jokes leaving the hospital.
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Actor Samuel Monroe Jr. [52], known for roles in several 1990s films, is on life support after being diagnosed with MRSA pneumonia. According to TMZ, Monroe’s wife, Shawna Stewart, said he was hospitalized after being repeatedly misdiagnosed. She clarified the meningitis went untreated for months due to repeated misdiagnoses, allowing the infection to spread to his spine and brain. He was diagnosed April 28 with MRSA. She said that by the time the infection was rightfully identified, it had “already spread not only to his spine but also to his brain.” Joyce Patton, Monroe’s mother, took to Facebook to ask for prayers for her son. Monroe has been seen in various films in the 1990s, including Menace II Society, Set It Off, Tales from the Hood, Don’t Be a Menace to South Central While Drinking Your Juice, What Goes Around Comes Around, and The Players Club.
During an appearance on an upcoming episode of Dean Delray’s “Let There Be Talk” podcast, former METALLICA bassist Jason Newsted opened up about a health scare he had last year when he was diagnosed with throatcancer. After Delray noted that Newsted was invited to take part in the final edition of Dean’s legendary Bon Scott/AC/DC tribute show this past February, the 63-year-old Newsted, who recently announced that he will embark on the first-ever North American headlining tour with his THE CHOPHOUSE BAND this summer, said (as transcribed by BLABBERMOUTH.NET from video clip provided by Dean Delray): “So, let’s see – in one week, it’s gonna be a year. So one week from today, it’ll be a year. May 8th of 2025, I underwent a procedure for throatcancer. And so they took a bunch of shit outta here and then they went in with lasers this way and took a bunch of shit out. So the cavern inside my head is different than it was, but we got it early. And I got my ‘free and clear’ about three weeks ago. So I beat it.”
Dynamic rock band Swim The Current have released their new single ‘Already Dead’ via TLG|ZOID, distributed by Virgin Music Group. However, the title has taken on a deeper and very real meaning following a frightening event involving bassist George Pond. Pond recently travelled overseas to perform shows in Japan with Mass Punishment, but during the run, he suddenlyfell ill and suffered a massive heart attack far from home, away from friends and family. The band are relieved to share that George is now making a strong recovery and is expected to return to the US soon. In a powerful coincidence, ‘Already Dead’ arrives as a harsh wake up call and a stark reminder of how quickly everything can change, showing how resilience can rise from even the darkest moments.
Posting from a hospital bed Saturday morning, former Cleveland Browns quarterback Bernie Kosar [62] told fans he was having a procedure. While Kosar didn’t give details of the procedure or what led to his hospitalization, it does come after the legendary QB underwent a life-saving liver transplant in November of 2025. He’s been hospitalized at least twice since then. In early December 2025 he was hospitalized with E. coli blood poisoning. Then, in January of 2026, Kosar said his body had a “small rejection” to the liver which, again, landed him in the hospital. In 2024, Kosar said he was diagnosed with cirrhosis of the liver and early symptoms of Parkinson’s disease. Kosar’s liver transplant was made possible after 21-year-old Bryce Dunlap, of North Olmsted, died from a medical emergency.
On April 24, it was reported that Giants legend and NFL Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor arrived at a New Jersey emergency room after he experienced a medical emergency. Per a TMZ story at the time, he was later transferred to a different section of the hospital, and those close to Taylor believed he would be discharged soon. Fast forward to April 28, and TMZ is now reporting that Taylor is being treated for pancreatitis. Thankfully for Taylor, sources close to him are saying he’s getting better. As more information becomes available, we can pass along updates. But for now, we sincerely hope he gets better. The 67-year-old is once more an NFL legend, and he’s meant a great deal to the sport for both players and fans.
AEW star Rebel has shared a very unfortunate update on her health. The wrestling veteran, real name Tanea Brooks [47], has been battling numerous issues over the past few years, which have kept her off television since 2022. Brooks tearfully announced this past November that doctors diagnosed her with Primary Pulmonary Lymphoma, a very rare form of lungcancer. She was hospitalized in the spring of 2024 when masses in her lungs were discovered, and was initially prescribed anti-fungal medication. More than a year later, she received her cancerdiagnosis. Several months after that, Brooks was getting ready to undergo surgery when another discovery was made. “First, I want to say thank you for all of your prayers because for those who know, it’s been a two-year medical journey trying to find out what is wrong and finally, our prayers have been answered. The thing is, sometimes, we don’t want to hear that answer to our prayers,” Rebel said at the start of her latest video statement Friday. “While I was waiting to have lung surgery for the masses on my lungs, the doctors finally found what’s going on. The doctors have diagnosed me with terminal ALS. There is not a lot of research behind ALS and we don’t know how long I have, but it explains why I have trouble walking and talking. All of my functions will soon decline.” Brooks went on to say that now is the time for prayer and she went out of her way to thank AEW President Tony Khan for his help over these past few years.
Andie Summers, host of “The Andie Summers Show” on Beasley Media Group country “92-5 XTU” WXTU, is opening up to listeners about a recent breast cancerdiagnosis, sharing the news in an emotional on-air announcement that underscored both the personal and family impact of the disease. Summers told listeners she learned of the diagnosis just days earlier, describing it as “a really scary thing for anyone,” while emphasizing that her first thoughts immediately turned to her family. “I’m a mom,” she said. “This diagnosis… it’s not just about me… it’s about everyone in my circle.” The veteran host has long been a familiar voice to country listeners in the market. Known for her candid, relatable style on-air, Summers brought that same openness to the announcement, acknowledging both her fear and her resolve. She referenced personal loss as part of what makes the diagnosis especially difficult, noting that cancer has affected multiple members of her family, including her sister and father. At the same time, she expressed concern for her husband and young children, saying they are “too young to be thinking about this and worrying about this.” By sharing the diagnosis publicly, Summers joins a number of radio personalities who have used their platforms to document personal health battles in real time, often strengthening audience bonds in the process.
BATON ROUGE, LA – State Sen. Larry Selders has been hospitalized following a serious medical emergency, his office announced Sunday afternoon. “Senator Larry Selders is currently hospitalized following a serious medical emergency involving his heart. He is receiving care from his medical team and is surrounded by loved ones,” a social media post said. The post said he will be temporarily unavailable, but his office remains open. Selders was elected in 2025 and represents Dist. 14, East Baton Rouge Parish.
Researcher’s note – Most Louisiana lawmakers have gotten a COVID-19 vaccine[sic]; see who has, hasn’t Among the 30 lawmakers who haven’t gotten vaccinated, five said they had recently recovered from COVID-19 and definitely planned on getting vaccinated [sic] in the future: Sen. Katrina Jackson, D-Monroe; Rep. John Illg Jr., R-River Ridge; Rep. Rhonda Butler, R-Ville Platte; Rep. Larry Selders, D-Baton Rouge; Sen. Kirk Talbot, R-River Ridge: https://archive.ph/mfiTc#selection-4317.0-4317.336
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Rabobank: “More War Seems Inevitable”
Sunday, May 10, 2026 – 11:37 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Summit… then ‘summit’ worse?
“TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,”was President Trump’s response to Iran’s belated reply to his peace proposal, which they have rejected as a “surrender.” Tehran thinks the US must do so instead: rather than handing over enriched uranium, pledging to never build a nuke, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and dropping ballistic missiles and support for regional terror proxies, Iran wants a permanent US retreat, reparations paid to it, and control of Hormuz.
More war, where the US takes control of the Strait and/or bombs the regime harder to encourage it to sign a deal, seems inevitable if one rules out a 1956-style retreat. Indeed, Israeli PM Netanyahu gave a TV interview to 60 Minutes where he stated the Iran war, while having achieved a lot, is “not over.” Markets are not going to enjoy the prospect of greater and longer disruption to global energy supplies.
However, new fighting may not be seen until the weekend. First, “because markets.” Second, as the US still doesn’t have everything in place it needs militarily to strike harder and for longer. Third, because over May 13-15, Trump will meet Xi in Beijing, where the focus will be on Iran as well as broader US-China relations.
As postulated since the early days of this war, its resolution may run through Beijing. China, like Russia, has influence on Iran via supplies of key military goods. In that regard, some see Trump going to China with Xi holding all the cards (because Iran holds a Strait.) Yet others think a sustained war that pushes global energy markets and the economy past a terrible tipping point might see Beijing offer to lean on Iran rather than supporting it like Russia vs Ukraine.
Naturally, that opens up chatter of a potential ‘Grand Bargain’ around the core interests of China, the US, and Russia (where President Putin presided over a deflated Victory Day parade and said the war with Ukraine may “be coming to an end.”) If you aren’t at this week’s table, you might be on it.In short, the focus should be on this summit and whether it leads to ‘summit’ better or worse for you.
Equally naturally, political dramas around the world mirror those in geopolitics.
Following a local election drubbing and the collapse of two-party politics, the ruling UK Labour Party will see a stalking-horse leadership contest against deeply unpopular PM Starmer. His potential rivals Streeting (in the cabinet), Miliband (in the cabinet and a former unpopular Labour leader himself), Rayner (not in the cabinet due to a tax scandal), and Burns (not in Parliament due to Starmer’s team) must decide if they will make their moves. Starmer is determined to cling on and will give a major speech today seen as determinative for who joins the fray. Financial markets will be worried about populist left policy direction under new leadership, where Labour is losing voters just as fast at it is to the populist right.
In Australia, the by-election in Farrer saw a seat formerly held by the Liberal Party leader taken by the populist right One Nation and the door opened to it joining the Liberal-National opposition coalition, reshaping Australian politics. This is ahead of a Labor Party budget tomorrow already seeing a populist left shift via cash handouts (when inflation is nearly 5%), and taxation of residential property and other assets.
Denmark’s Liberal leader has taken over coalition talks after the Social Democrat premier failed to secure a parliamentary majority. There appear few stable political combos on offer, and questions swirl as to whether the inclusion of the far right will be necessary to achieve one.
Germany’s far right AfD is at 28% in national polls, the most popular party, and 41% in an eastern state where an election will be held in September: add the far left, and populism is >50% of the electorate. There appear few stable German political coalitions that exclude the AfD.
In all these cases, as in the US, the market-friendly center is failing to hold and extremes on the left and right, and via sectarianism, are benefitting most.
Meanwhile, a revolution may be taking place in the geoeconomic sphere. The CLARITY Act working its way through the US Congress as companion to the GENIUS Act that cements stablecoins into the financial system has disallowed USD stablecoins from paying interest; however, it allows the payment of scaled rewards and fees that are their functional equivalent when used in transactions. That might prove pivotal for these much-misunderstood new assets designed to steamroller the global Eurodollar financial architecture.
China is officially banning anything other than its official e-CNY, a CBDC, though Hong Kong is floated as a potential location that could perhaps issue Chinese versions of onshore mainland debt-backed stablecoins similar to those of the US. That could, in theory, propose an alternative payments infrastructure that isn’t hampered by China’s capital controls.
By contrast, the ECB has just stated stablecoins are not an efficient way to strengthen the international role of the euro vs. deeper capitalmarket integration and a stronger safe asset base. That means its alternative to the USD is an EUR that looks more like it, which implies the matching ‘benefits’ of trade deficits, debt, and financialisation over net exports and the industrial production needed for remilitarisation – as the US tries to pivot hard the other way.
Indeed, the US is not only pushing for a $500bn increase in the Pentagon budget but seeing a shake-up of how it operates: bureaucrats will no longer negotiate defence contracts, with an elite private sector “Deal Team Six” to handle and approve negotiations; defence firms will have to build their own factories; those that fail to deliver goods will be held responsible and may be replaced with new contractors; and there will be no more ‘costs-plus’ overspending. “Despite paying companies to make weapons faster, scheduled delays were constant, and cost overruns were the norm, all while their CEOs got rich,” according to Secretary of War Hegseth.
“Because markets,” said shareholders. But perhaps no more. That’s summit else to chew on.
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS COMMENTARIES
Traders Puzzled As Physical Oil Prices Tumble Amid Surging Chinese Crude Sales, Plunging Imports
Friday, May 08, 2026 – 06:00 PM
Yesterday when discussing China’s unexpected flip-flopping on its decision to order local banks to ignore the latest US sanctions on Chinese, followed days later by a demand that they pause loans to sanctions refiners, we highlighted something remarkable: in the aftermath of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which throttled the transit of ~10% of global oil and sent physical prices soaring to record highs (especially for Dubai crude), resulting in a windfall for European refiners thanks to soaring gasoline premiums…
… the reaction in China was a mirror image, as already razor-thin independent refiner (teapot) margins plunged to record negative.
The reason for the margin collapse was China’s domestic fuel policy: it has long been Beijing’s policy to soften price hikes to help shield consumers and avoid social unrest; which while beneficial to end consumers is catastrophic to refiners and processors who are prohibited from passing on rising costs. In other words, Chna’s “energy security” was the dominant theme, and if it meant an entire industry has to suffer huge losses if it continues to purchase oil and process it into various product grades.
Ordered to process as much available inventory as possible, that’s what the refiners have done, and refining rates in Shandong province, China’s hub for smaller refineries known as teapots, ramped up over April to the highest level in almost two years, as processing margins cratered to record negative levels meaning refiners are losing record amounts on every barrel they process.
“I would not be surprised if the teapots are prioritizing politics over economics with an eye to their long-term survival,” said Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “They may be calculating that if they do their part to help China weather the energy crisis, then maybe they will build up some goodwill in Beijing.”
While Downs is right, and teapots are prioritizing politics, they are also certainly keeping an eye on economics to the extent they can avoid Beijing’s wrath, and predictably the logical consequence of this centrally-planned policy to force “independent” refiners (who are not really independent if they have to do whatever Beijing instructs them) to make fuel at record losses to ensure energy security, is for them to slash purchases of Iranian crude.
Sure enough, Chinese crude oil imports have plunged: according to Vortexa, China’s April imports plunged to a multi-year low of just 8.2 million barrels a day, down by about a quarter from a prewar level of around 11.7 million. The 3.5-million barrels a day swing almost matches the total consumption of Japan and is double the amount supplied by the United Arab Emirates pipeline that circumvents Hormuz.
As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas writes overnight, “simply put, it’s huge, perhaps the second- or third-largest factor rebalancing the oil market today, behind only Saudi Arabia’s own pipeline bypassing the strait and the use of the strategic petroleum reserves of the US and Japan.”
The import drop might make sense if Chinese commercial inventories were falling sharply, or if Beijing had tapped its strategic petroleum reserves. But neither appears to be happening. Instead, commercial stockpiles have continued to increase in recent weeks, according to satellite data (of course, China is well known to manipulate all data and with the bulk of its 1.4 billion in strategic oil reserves located underground, it is impossible to trace flows definitively)
Meanwhile, as imports have collapsed, inventories at sea have piled up: Kpler reports that there are now about 16 million barrels on ships anchored in the Yellow Sea off the Chinese coast, almost 40% higher than the level prior to a US blockade of Iran’s ports in mid-April as oil that was ordered previously remains unused.
There has been another complication: after the Iran war broke out, Beijing banned exports of refined products, effectively allowing refineries to process less crude to meet domestic demand. But the policy has now been reversed, suggesting the country sees enough fuel availability.
In any case, in recent weeks, Blas writes that amid this collapse in Chinese imports, industry executives have noticed something odd: Chinese state-owned oil companies have been reselling some of their oil cargoes to European and Asian rivals.The behavior suggests surpluses, which is “odd” to say the least during a supply shortage. Where is this excess oil coming from (for the answer, see below).
The shift has not only capped benchmark oil prices, but also helped to trigger a collapse in the premia that traders pay above them to secure physical crude. The immediate outcome has been a very beneficial one: physical barrels that in early April went for $30 above benchmark prices are now changing hands at premiums as low as $1. Talk of discounts has even started to emerge.
Underscoring this point, North Sea oil traders don’t appear as desperate for crude for immediate delivery anymore, compared to the panic buying of late March and early April
While the collapse in refining margins is a clear clue to the plunging oil imports, other questions remain: chief among them how is China importing far less crude than before without running down stocks? In the past, the country clearly bought more oil than it needed, building a huge emergency stockpile. Today, China has nearly 1.4 billion barrels in its reserves according to media reports, well above the 400 million of the US and Japan’s 260 million. As we reported in late 2025, China probably bought one million barrels a day more than it needed last year. By simply stopping beefing up the reserve, China can cut imports a lot without affecting its underlying oil needs.
The shift can explain, perhaps, a third of the import cut. But the rest? Here’s where oil traders speculate with different theories. One argument says that Chinese economic activity is weaker than previously thought, and thus oil consumption growth is also lower. What’s the catalyst for that slowdown? Perhaps the impact of the war on several of China’s clients in the region, including the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand (just don’t look for validation in Chinese economic “data” – like everything else, it took is centrally planned and Beijing would never confirm its economy is being hit due to the Iran war as that would mean reduced political leverage).
Separately, the increase of electric vehicles, improved public transportation and the option of working from home have made Chinese households better able to cope with higher oil prices.
Unlike most other nations in the region, China hasn’t announced any emergency action to rein in demand, like adopting a four-day work week for government employees or promoting carpooling.
The IEA estimates that Chinese oil demand slipped into a modest year-on-year contraction in both March and April, down by about 110,000 barrels a day to about 17 million barrels. While the drop is impressive when compared with the exuberant growth of the country’s consumption in the past, it isn’t nearly enough to explain why imports have fallen so much.
It is certainly possible that Chinese oil demand has been contracting far more sharply than currently thought, The key, Blas reckons, is the inscrutable petrochemical industry – the sector that has contributed the majority of oil consumption growth over the last five years. In petrochemicals, China is unique. On top of its traditional industry that uses oil and natural gas as feedstock, it has parallel production that relies on coal.
Since the war started in late February, coal-to-chemicals profit margins have improved markedly. The industry had typically operated with plentiful spare capacity, so there’s room for a significant shift to coal from oil as a chemical feedstock. Hard data is scarce but, anecdotally, petrochemicals plants transforming coal into plastics like polyethylene, polypropylene and polyvinyl chloride have been running hard for the last 60 days, in turn reducing consumption of traditional feedstocks such as ethane and naphtha.
So perhaps China has managed to rely far more on coal-to-chemicals than previously thought. Another possible explanation is that it’s running down hard-to-track inventories of semi-finished plastics and other chemicals, making the recent drop in oil consumption in the petrochemical industry an unsustainable one-off unless there is a global recession which collapses end-demand for Chinese plastics exports.
And then there are the more banal explanations. Although oil traders try to estimate Chinese inventory data with the use of satellite data, it is in fact possible that observers are missing locations and stocks are, in fact, falling. About two months ago, we hinted that Chinese drain of its SPR could more than offset a full Hormuz blockade for a long time. As we said on March 18, “China can avoid any Gulf imports for months and drain its SPR instead.”
Sure enough, Blas writes that the oil market has been full of chatter about China quietly tapping its strategic reserves, starting by using underground caverns that no one can see using satellites. Maybe. Time lags may also be playing a role; Chinese domestic oil production has been increasing, too, perhaps helping to plug any gaps.
But, as Blas concludes, “make no mistake, China is rebalancing the oil market today.” The bigger question is for tomorrow when the Strait is (eventually) unblocked: If China can reduce imports so drastically without having to take extreme measures, what does that say about the future of oil consumption there? Nothing positive for oil bulls, that’s for sure.
END
Maersk CEO Warns Iran War Is A “New Wake-Up Call” For Global Trade
Sunday, May 10, 2026 – 07:35 AM
It is becoming increasingly clear that reopening the Strait of Hormuz has become a top U.S. priority (really a global priority) , as oil executives and industry insiders warn that the clock is ticking toward an energy and global trade shock if the maritime chokepoint remains closed for another month.
Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Gunvor, one of the world’s largest oil traders, warned earlier this week: “The tipping point is clearly June. This is the point at which something has to give.”
JPMorgan analysts warned that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint is blocked for another four weeks.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” earlier this morning, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warned that a “new wake-up call” has emerged beyond energy markets and that if the Hormuz chokepoint remains shuttered, it could severely impact global trade in the coming months.
Clerc was speaking to CNBC after Maersk reported a plunge in profitability and kept its guidance unchanged, but warned that the US-Iran war and the resulting Gulf energy shock are “dominant forces shaping the macroeconomic outlook, as well as the trade and logistics environment.”
Maersk wrote in its earnings report that the Iran war had introduced an “additional layer of uncertainty.”
“Currently, fragile ceasefires are in place in both Iran and Lebanon, negotiations proceed slowly, and traffic at the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near-standstill. The conflict has already weighed on sentiment. Consumer confidence deteriorated,” the shipper said.
Maersk warned that crude oil prices in the $90 to $100 per barrel range and continued Hormuz chokepoint disruption would soon begin hitting global container demand, which is still expected to grow between 2% and 4%.
It noted that the balance of risks is “on the downside and more adverse outcomes cannot be ruled out.”
“Energy and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly reshaping global supply chains,” Maersk said in the earnings report. “After the recent tariffs on U.S. imports, the conflict represents another wake-up call to deploy new tools to make supply chains more resilient and develop new strategies to mitigate future disruptions.”
It is increasingly evident that another month of Hormuz disruption represents a critical tipping point for energy markets and the global economy. If the conflict extends through June and the chokepoint remains shuttered, first-order impacts would likely worsen across Asia and Europe, where dependence on Gulf crude, refined products, LNG, and container flows is highest. From there, the shock could spread into fuel shortages, factory disruptions, higher shipping costs, and broader economic turmoil.
The clock is ticking.
END
Aramco CEO Says Energy Market May Not Normalize Until 2027 Amid Billion-Barrel Supply Shock
Monday, May 11, 2026 – 10:15 AM
From the Trump administration’s recent Project Freedom push to mounting warnings from Wall Street analysts, security experts, energy strategists, and major oil company executives, there is a growing sense that the global energy market is quickly approaching a breaking point due to the heavily disrupted Strait of Hormuz.
There was good news over the weekend, as a Qatari LNG tanker transited the Hormuz chokepoint. However, a second tanker from the energy-rich Gulf country abruptly made a U-turn in the Strait early Monday, dashing hopes for any near-term normalization, especially since the U.S. and Iran have yet to reach a peace deal.
The countdown to global energy chaos is increasingly viewed in weeks, not months. If the maritime chokepoint remains impaired for the next several weeks, according to Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Gunvor, one of the world’s largest oil traders, then the “tipping point to something has to give is June.”
Warnings of incoming energy market turmoil continued on Monday, with the CEO of Aramco, formerly known as the Saudi Arabian Oil Company. Amin Nasser warned that the market could lose around 100 million barrels of oil each week if Hormuz remains closed.
Nasser told investors on an earnings call earlier today that if the Hormuz chokepoint is disrupted for another couple of weeks, then it would take the global energy market until 2027 to normalize.
Here are the most important comments from Nasser’s call with the analyst:
Energy Supply Shock Is Largest Ever Experienced
It’ll Take Months for Oil Market to Rebalance Even If Hormuz Reopens Today
Market to Normalize in 2027 if Hormuz Opening Is Delayed by Few More Weeks
Market Has Seen Supply Loss of About 1 Billion Barrel of Oil
Alternative Flows Bypassing Hormuz, Strategic Reserve Releases Partially offset that
Market Could Lose Around 100 Mln Barrels of Oil For Every Week
Demand Rationing to Continue As Long As Supply Remains Disrupted
Return to Demand Growth Expected to Be Robust If Trade Resumes
Demand Growth to Be Driven by Urgency to Ensure Security of Supply
Supply Chains Will Need Several Months to Return to Normal
Building on the countdown-to-energy-chaos theme, Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats warned clients that the oil market is in a “race against time” as the maritime chokepoint remains heavily disrupted. He noted that global supply buffers, which have kept crude prices contained during the ten-week Iran war, are starting to come under pressure.
Rats said that nearly 1 billion barrels have already been lost, yet Brent crude futures have not exceeded 2022 levels because the market entered the crisis with spare supply buffers and because traders kept assuming Hormuz would reopen.
“The ability of the US to continue this elevated level of exports is hard to gauge but appears under more pressure,” the analyst noted, adding, “The United States’ 3.8m b/d increase in exports and China’s 5.5m b/d cut in imports have shielded the rest of the world from 9.3m b/d of tightness.”
Rats warned, “Even if the Strait reopened tomorrow, the time required to restart fields, repair refineries, and reposition tanker tonnage means the market is on track to lose another billion barrels over the balance of 2026.”
In a separate note, JPMorgan’s resident commodity expert, Natasha Kaneva, explained where the next phase of the global energy shock could unfold.
Kaneva’s chart on global oil inventories is truly shocking.
Overall, the warnings are piling up. If the maritime chokepoint remains shuttered through this month, real panic may begin then.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
/YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1769 DOWN 0.0011
USA/ YEN 157.13 UP 0.487 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3588 DOWN 0.0029 OR 29 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3661 DOWN 0.0009 CDN DOLLAR UP 9 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 45.07 PTS OR 1.08%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 213.78 PTS OR 0.80%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.02%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 13.13 PTS OR 0.05%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 45.07 OR 1.08%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.02%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 99.34 PTS OR 0.16%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4667.90
silver:$80.58
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 45.38 PLUS 1 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 74.17 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 3 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9870 UP 7 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.667 UP 9 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.517 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.168 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY MORNING: 97.89 UP 11 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.397% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.523% UP 5 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.771 UP 6 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.453 UP 4 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.782 UP 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0301 UP 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1776 DOWN 0.0005 OR 5 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.23 UP 0.589OR YEN IS DOWN 59 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.023 UP 3 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.692 UP 2 BASIS POINTS.
REAR VIEW: Trump rejected Iran’s response, calling it “totally unacceptable”; Trump meeting his national security team to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action; UK PM Starmer under intense pressure; Iran has deployed deep-roaming submarines in the Strait of Hormuz; Weak 3yr auction.
COMING UP: Data: German HICP Final (Apr), ZEW (May), US Inflation (Apr), ADP Employment Change Weekly Events: BoJ SOO (Apr), EIA STEO (May), EU Informal Meeting of Energy Ministers (May 12-13) Speakers: RBNZ’s Bremen; BoC’s Macklem; ECB’s Elderson; Fed’s Williams, Goolsbee Supply: Japan, Netherlands, UK, Germany, US Earnings: Under Armour.
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
Stocks were firmer on Monday, albeit off highs, with gains led by further upside in semiconductor names; SOXX +2%. Energy outperformed alongside higher crude prices, while Materials benefited from strength in metal prices.
Oil prices rose after US President Trump rejected Iran’s response to the latest US proposal to end the war, calling it “totally unacceptable”. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with reports stating Trump is set to meet with his national security team to discuss next steps regarding Iran, including the potential resumption of military operations. Meanwhile, Iran warned it is prepared to respond to any aggression and remains open to “all options”.
The upside in crude and elevated geopolitical risk premium weighed on Treasuries, pushing yields higher across the curve in a bear flattening move as front-end yields led the rise on firmer inflation expectations. Gold and silver both rallied despite the rise in US yields, with silver notably outperforming.
In FX, G10 trade was mixed. Traditional havens such as the JPY and CHF lagged amid the rise in Treasury yields, while AUD outperformed on stronger equities and metal prices. CAD was also supported by firmer crude prices. Sterling was little changed, although over 80 MPs are reportedly calling for PM Starmer’s resignation following Labour’s poor local election performance last week.
Attention now turns to whether Trump decides to resume military action against Iran following the latest deadlock in negotiations, although some reports suggest any decision may wait until after his return from China later this week. Elsewhere, focus this week also falls on US CPI, PPI and Retail Sales, alongside the 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 11 TICKS LOWER AT 110-13
T-notes were lower across the curve on Monday, with the front-end underperforming as oil prices rallied after President Trump rejected Iran’s response to the US proposal. At settlement, 2-year +5.6bps at 3.945%, 3-year +5.4bps at 3.968%, 5-year +5.8bps at 4.064%, 7-year +5.2bps at 4.233%, 10-year +4.8bps at 4.408%, 20-year +4.4bps at 4.972%, 30-year +4.2bps at 4.982%.
THE DAY: There was no major US data or Fed speak, with market focus remaining firmly on geopolitics. The key development over the weekend was President Trump rejecting Iran’s response to the latest US proposal aimed at ending the war.
The news lifted crude prices, weighing on Treasuries and pushing yields higher across the curve, particularly in the front-end as rising energy prices boosted inflation expectations and drove a bear flattening move.
Treasuries settled near session lows despite volatile crude price action throughout the day. Reports noted Trump is set to meet with his national security team to discuss the next steps regarding Iran, including the potential resumption of military operations. Meanwhile, Iran warned it is prepared to respond to any aggression and remains open to “all options”, keeping geopolitical tensions elevated.
Away from geopolitics, the US Treasury’s 3-year note auction was weak, ahead of the 10-year and 30-year supply on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Attention this week also turns to key inflation data, with US CPI on Tuesday (preview here) and PPI due before Retail Sales on Thursday.
US to sell USD 58bln of 3-year notes on 11th May, USD 42bln of 10-year notes on 12th May and USD 25bln of 30-year bonds on 13th May
Bills
US sold 3-month bills at high-rate 3.610%, B/C 2.86x; sold 6-month bills at high-rate 3.615%, B/C 2.91x
US to sell USD 80bln of 6-week bills and USD 50bln of 52-week bills on May 12th; all to settle May 14th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Fed Pricing: Dec +6.1bps (prev. +2.9bps)
EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 123bln (prev. USD 119bln) on May 8th
SOFR at 3.60% (prev. 3.60%), volumes at USD 3.087tln (prev. USD 3.106tln) on May 8th
NY Fed RRP op demand at 1.13bln (prev. 0.79bln) across 7 counterparties (prev. 5) on May 11th
CRUDE
WTI (M6) SETTLED USD 2.65 HIGHER AT 98.07/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLED USD 2.92 HIGHER AT 104.21/BBL
The crude complex was firmer to start the week, albeit settled off highs, as Trump called Iran’s response to the peace plan “totally unacceptable”. The main weekend update came as the US President responded to the Iran peace proposal, with further updates coming through the day on Monday. On that, Trump is meeting with his national security team today to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, after negotiations with the country deadlocked on Sunday, three US officials said via Axios. Within these source reports, they added Trump is leaning toward taking some form of military action against Iran to increase pressure on the regime and force concessions on its nuclear program. Regarding a possible timeline, Trump is expected to leave for China on Wednesday and return Friday, and two officials said they don’t think Trump would order military action against Iran before he returns from China. Note, these sources came after Trump said the ceasefire is unbelievably weak and is on life support. Elsewhere, and from Iran, it has reportedly deployed deep-roaming submarines in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s Ghalibaf said their armed forces are ready to respond in a lesson-based manner to any aggression, and are open to all options. WTI traded between USD 96.13-100.37/bbl and Brent USD 102.81-105.99/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.18% at 7,412, NDX +0.29% at 29,321, DJI +0.19% at 49,704, RUT +0.39% at 2,872.
SECTORS: Energy +2.62%, Materials +1.43%, Industrials +1.01%, Technology +0.98%, Utilities +0.97%, Real Estate +0.34%, Financials -0.19%, Health -0.40%, Consumer Discretionary -0.66%, Consumer Staples -0.76%, Communication Services -2.34%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +1.83% at 5,869, Dax 40 +1.67% at 24,392, FTSE 100 -1.40% at 10,219, CAC 40 +1.08% at 8,062, FTSE MIB +2.27% at 48,558, IBEX 35 +1.80% at 17,668, PSI -0.04% at 9,165, SMI +0.43% at 13,059, AEX +0.95% at 1,015.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
Emerald Holding (EEX) reportedly to be acquired by Apollo (APO) for approx. USD 1bln & shareholders to receive USD 5.03/shr; closed Fri. at USD 4.57/shr.
Dell (DELL) downgraded at UBS.
Lumentum (LITE) will join the Nasdaq 100, effective May 18th.
Sony (SONY) & TSMC (TSM) signed MOU for next-gen image sensor JV in Japan.
SK Hynix is reportedly conducting R&D on 2.5D packaging technology with Intel (INTC).
Sofi Technologies (SOFI) agrees on a deal to take over most of PrimaryBid, via Sky News.
EARNINGS:
Circle Internet (CRCL): EPS & adj. EBITDA beat; revenue miss.
Mosaic (MOS): Profit light
Constellation Energy (CEG): EPS & rev. beat.
Fox Corp (FOXA): EPS, rev. & adj. EBITDA topped Wall St. exp.
Monday.com (MNDY): Stellar Q report & said launch of its AI platform helped its rev. grow 24% Y/Y.
FX
The Dollar Index was mixed against G10 peers to start the week, as Middle East rhetoric largely dominated trade dynamics. Over the weekend, Trump labelled Iran’s peace plan as totally unacceptable, and the major update on Monday, via Axios citing US officials, is that Trump is meeting with his national security team today to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, after negotiations with the country deadlocked on Sunday. The sources did add, Trump is expected to leave for China on Wednesday and return Friday, and they don’t think he would order military action against Iran before he returns from China. On US-China relations, the President once again reiterated today they [Trump/Xi] have a great relationship, and they will discuss Iran. There was no Fed speak or tier 1 data, as participants await CPI and PPI on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
As alluded to above, G10s moved at the whim of energy, with the gains in the crude complex supporting the Loonie. Haven FX, JPY and CHF, were the G10 laggards and saw losses vs. the Buck, given their net-importer of energy statuses.
Currency-specific newsflow was fairly sparse to begin the week, although the Pound had plenty of political turmoil to digest. Overall, the GBP was flat, and traded between 1.3547-1.3653. In the UK morning, Cable edged lower as markets reacted to a lackluster PM Starmer address. In brief, Starmer’s speech left Labour MPs unsatisfied, which led to Labour backbencher West to form a letter to gather support for a scheduled exit for the PM, and has since gained more support. The main point of concern for this latest move is whether Burnham will be an MP before the leadership challenge is called. As it stands, over 80 MPs are calling on Starmer to resign while The Times has reported that MPs pivotal in selecting Labour’s next leader will tomorrow call on ministers to ditch the existing fiscal rules and increase taxes on wealth as part of a radical overhaul of the party’s economic strategy.
Elsewhere, modest downside was seen in EUR/NOK following the Norwegian inflation metrics, as core inflation rose, despite the headline Y/Y coming in slightly cooler than the prior. For EMs, South African President Ramaphosa remarked he is not stepping down.
USA DATA RELEASE
US Existing Home Sales Disappoint In April, Despite Lower Mortgage Rates
Monday, May 11, 2026 – 10:07 AM
With the Spring selling season already in tatters, existing home sales were expected to rebound in April very modestly (+2.0% MoM) off recent record lows. However, the rebound was far less than expected, up just 0.2% MoM, which left sales of existing homes unchanged YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
Total existing home sales SAAR hover just above 4.00 million homes…
Source: Bloomberg
The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 0.9% from a year earlier to $417,700 last month – the highest for any April on record.
Source: Bloomberg
The inventory of previously owned homes increased from a year ago to 1.47 million – the most for any April since 2019.
Source: Bloomberg
“Even though it’s the highest inventory post-Covid, we are not close to the pre-Covid April inventory of 1.83 million,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said on a call with reporters.
Contract closings rose in the Midwest and South, according to the NAR. They fell to a three-month low in the West.
Finally, it appears home sales are becoming less and less elastic relative to mortgage rates (which had fallen notably during the period of reporting)..
Source: Bloomberg
And, as the chart shows, mortgage rates are recently on the rise again…which will not help the situation at all.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
NEW ORLEANS
“Doesn’t Look Good”: Explosion Rocks Major New Orleans-Area Refinery As Fuel Markets Tighten
Saturday, May 09, 2026 – 08:45 AM
A fire broke out Friday afternoon at PBF Energy’s Chalmette refinery outside New Orleans, according to the facility.
Reuters cited people familiar with the incident who said the 190,000-barrel-per-day Chalmette refinery suffered an explosion on Friday afternoon. The explosion can be traced to a reformer heater used to convert refining byproducts into octane-boosting components added to unfinished gasoline to make premium and mid-grade fuel blends.
The 190,000-barrel-per-day refinery is one of the major Gulf Coast refineries because it produces gasoline, distillates, and specialty chemicals, so any sustained outage can impact regional fuel balances, especially gasoline and diesel supply.
“Fence-line monitoring confirms no off-site impacts,” according to the message from the refinery. “Everyone working in the area is safe and accounted for.”
Two different angles of the l explosion and fire at the refinery in Chalmette. Authorities says all employees of the refinery are safe and no injuries have been reported. @WGNOtvpic.twitter.com/lso935kb4y
Bloomberg noted that the refinery completed a month-long maintenance program on several units at the end of April.
GasBuddy head analyst Patrick De Haan wrote on X, “Not only are the molecules in the refinery itself under tremendous pressure, but refineries themselves are under tremendous pressure with huge implications as crack spreads soar. Too early to tell what happened here, but certainly doesn’t look good.”
There has been a notable uptick in the number of “refinery fire” news stories, according to Bloomberg data, whether those stories are in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, or the U.S.
With crude-product supplies tightening worldwide and the Hormuz chokepoint still heavily disrupted, any refinery taken offline is an ominous sign for fuel markets.
Refinery fires are starting to look like “Food Factory Fires” from several years ago.
END
DENVER
Frontier Jet Hits Person On Takeoff, Engine Erupts In Flames At Denver
Saturday, May 09, 2026 – 09:55 AM
A shocking runway security incident unfolded late Friday at Denver International Airport after Frontier Flight 4345, an Airbus A321 bound for Los Angeles, struck an individual during its takeoff roll, forcing the crew to abort.
Full transcript of the ATC audio:
Frontier 4345 (pilot): Tower, Frontier 4345, we’re stopping on the runway. We just hit somebody and have an engine fire.
DEN Tower: Frontier 4345, I see that.
DEN Tower (to Frontier 4345): Frontier 4345, I’m going to be rolling the trucks now. Do you know if there are souls on board and fuel remaining?
Frontier 4345 (pilot): Alright, 4345 we have 231 souls on board. We have 21,320 pounds of fuel onboard. There was an individual walking across the runway.
In our view, a commercial jet at a major international airport does not simply “hit someone” on an active runway during takeoff, particularly near the point of rotation. This suggests a potentially serious breakdown in perimeter, airfield, or runway security controls.
The incident appears to represent a major security breach at DEN. One working theory is that the individual intentionally entered the aircraft’s path, potentially committing suicide by entering the right turbine intake.
That said, investigators will need to determine how the person accessed the active runway, whether DEN’s perimeter controls failed, and whether the individual was struck by the aircraft and drawn into the engine or simply jumped into the turbine intake.
END
NOROVIRUS
Now its the Novovirus to create havoc. The major problem is lack of immunity;
(zerohedge)
Norovirus Outbreak Sickens 115 People on Caribbean Princess Cruise Ship, CDC Says
More than 110 people aboard the Caribbean Princess cruise ship have fallen ill due to a norovirus outbreak, a common cause of gastrointestinal illnesses, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Caribbean Princess, owned by Princess Cruises, departed from the port of Fort Lauderdale, Florida, on April 28 and is currently sailing in the North Atlantic Ocean, according to CruiseMapper.
The voyage dates were April 28 to May 11. The ship is carrying 3,116 passengers and 1,131 crew members and is expected to arrive in Port Canaveral, Florida, on May 11.
The norovirus outbreak was reported on the ship on May 7, affecting 102 passengers and 13 crew members, with diarrhea and vomiting identified as the predominant symptoms, the CDC said in an update.
Princess Cruises and the crew have increased cleaning and disinfection procedures in response to the outbreak, the CDC stated. Other measures include collecting stool samples from patients with gastrointestinal illness for testing and isolating passengers and crew members who have fallen ill.
The crew also consulted with the CDC’s Vessel Sanitation Program (VSP) regarding sanitation cleaning procedures and reporting of sick individuals, the agency said.
“VSP is conducting a field response for an environmental assessment and outbreak investigation to assist the ship in controlling the outbreak,” it stated.
The Epoch Times has reached out to Princess Cruises for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.
Norovirus is the leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States, accounting for 58 percent of such infections each year, according to the CDC.
Apart from vomiting and diarrhea, other frequently reported symptoms include muscle aches, headaches, abdominal cramps, and fever.
In March, a norovirus outbreak was reported aboard the Star Princess, also owned by Princess Cruises, affecting 104 passengers and 49 crew members. Last December, a norovirus outbreak on an Aida Cruises ship sickened more than 100 people.
Cruise ships are required to report cases of gastrointestinal illness to the CDC. The agency said that reporting symptoms to the medical center onboard can help health officials detect gastrointestinal outbreaks quickly and take steps to limit the spread of illness.
Medical staff would then evaluate symptoms to determine whether they meet the case definition for the illness, including three or more loose stools within a 24-hour period or vomiting along with another symptom such as diarrhea, aching muscles, or fever.
On average, norovirus causes around 900 deaths, mainly in adults aged 65 and older, 109,000 hospitalizations, 465,000 emergency room visits, and 19 million to 21 million illnesses in the United States each year, according to the CDC.
Kraft Heinz CEO: “Consumers Are Literally Running Out Of Money Toward The End Of The Month”
Sunday, May 10, 2026 – 07:50 PM
While the digital US economy, if proxied through the earnings growth and stock prices of AI companies and their “picks and shovels” support ecosystem, has never been stronger, the traditional US consumer, responsible for 70% of US GDP, has rarely been more depressed than right now (and according to the latest University of Michigan sentiment survey, Americans have literally never been more pessimistic).
That was the take home message from the latest earnings week, when various executives across retail, restaurants and packaged goods indicated they are increasingly worried about US shoppers – especially those from the” lower half” of the K-shaped economy – with tighter budgets amid surging gas prices caused by the Iran war, and consumer electronics prices through the roof thanks to record memory chip prices.
“They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month,” Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said in an interview with the WSJ . “We’re seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they’re dipping into savings.” Sure enough, last week we showed that as a result of personal spending growth far outpacing personal income…
… the personal savings rate has collapsed to a 3 year low.
This underscores a remarkable trend: since the pandemic, Americans have continued to spend at surprising levels despite high inflation, keeping the US economy growing and thwarting recession fears, with much of the spending growth fueled by credit card debt, with February’s $10BN+ increase in credit card debt the highest since February 2024.
But soaring fuel costs might be the straw that breaks the overlevered camel’s back: “The war in Iran amplified consumer concerns about the cost of living,” Whirlpool. CEO Marc Bitzer said Thursday on a call with analysts. The maker of washers and dryers said it’s counting on purchases picking up after a harsh US winter slowed shopping, but the war caused a collapse in consumer sentiment. The company described the resulting 15% hit to industry demand as similar to the global financial crisis in the aughts. In other words a depression.
In fast food, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said confidence among shoppers isn’t improving and may be getting worse. The company cited “heightened anxiety” and gas prices that disproportionately impact low-income consumers.
Sit-down dining is also taking a hit. “Our price-sensitive, more value-oriented guests seem to be staying home a bit more,” Dine Brands CEO John Peyton said on an earnings call this week. The company, which owns the Applebee’s and IHOP chains, said it hasn’t seen a similar pullback in other income levels.
Meanwhile, eyewear retailer Warby Parker said younger shoppers are feeling the pinch from higher-than-usual unemployment and student debt bills.
Gas prices, now at $4.56 a gallon on average, are at their highest levels since July 2022, according to data from the American Automobile Association. As shoppers put more of their income toward fuel, they have less money for discretionary spending like eating out. Enlarged tax refunds helped blunt some of the impact, but sentiment has still soured to a record low.
Americans are putting less away as they try to keep up, with the savings rate dropping in March to the lowest in three years. Meanwhile, economists warn the disruptions from the war in Iran could lead to higher prices for a range of goods over time, including groceries, putting even more pressure on low-income households and draining what little savings are left.
Low-income consumers have already cut back on real gasoline consumption to try to limit costs, according to recent research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
In the near term, Americans can draw down savings or tap credit cards, but the longer gas prices stay high, the more consumers will change their spending patterns to balance their budgets, said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank.
Planet Fitness on Thursday fell the most on record after cutting its full-year outlook on weaker-than-expected member signups during the typically busy New Year period.
The gym chain also said it paused the national rollout of a price increase to its top-tier membership, with CEO Colleen Keating making it clear why that decision was made. “The consumer and economic backdrop have shifted,” she said.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
The King Report May 11, 2026 Issue 7739
Independent View of the News
Fangs soared on Friday and carried the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100, New York Fang Index, plus the S&P 500 Index to all-time highs. Intel hit a record high on a deal to make Apple chips, reportedly due to WH pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average only had modest gains. Gold and silver were up smartly. USMs, Oil, and gasoline rallied smartly.
The main feature again of course was the AI bubble and related trading sardines. We got a bubble and it’s clear cut, no two ways about it. And for the first time that we can recall, we have an administration that’s actively promoting the bubble. Of course, this is a way to divert attention from unpleasant items that are occurring in the economy. We all know this will end poorly. We just don’t know when it ends. So, “fasten your seat belts; it’s going to be a bumpy night.”
Once again, there was a stark divergence between NFP in the CES (Establishment Report) and ‘Employed’ in the Household Survey.
Household Survey Highlights Employed -226k, Unemployed +134k, Not in Labor Force +188k, Employment-population ratio -0.1 to 59.1, Civilian labor force -92k, Part time for economic reasons +445khttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
CES Highlights Retail +21.8k, Transportation & warehousing +30.3k with Couriers & messengers +37.9k, Private education & health service+46k with Health care & social assistance +53.9k, Leisure & hospitality +14k, Government -8k with Federal -9k https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
@RealEJAntoni: Full-time jobs in Apr: -424k; Part-time jobs in Apr: +123k Full-time employment was down in Apr and is now off 1.2% from Jan ’25 while part-time jobs rose in Apr, now up 1.7% since Jan ’25; full-time jobs haven’t really budged for several years: https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2052753912478806298 Payrolls were up for the 2nd month in a row (which we haven’t had since Apr/May last year) but employment is now down for the 4th month in a row – the two metrics have had an odd disconnect ever since the pandemic: https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2052752221813477547 Apr was the lowest employment level since Dec ’24 while nonfarm payrolls are at a record high: https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2052749967949738130/photo/1
@infraa_: Nothing screams “strong economy” like a bunch of part-time jobs, all in healthcare and education (continuing the Biden-era trend). We’ve gone from making stuff to staffing the consequences of not making stuff. Nothing screams ‘dynamic economy’ like expanding the caretaker class. https://x.com/infraa_/status/2052771922551955803
@elerianm: A sobering statistic from the BLS highlightsanother dimension of the Main Street/Wall Street divide: The US labor share of output fell to 54.1% in Q1 2026, the lowest level since this data series began in 1947. Put another way, labor is consistently capturing a declining share of the value created by productivity gains, with the benefits increasingly accruing to the owners of capital.
May UM Sentiment 48.2 (Lowest on record) 49.5 exp, Current Conditions 47.8, 52.3 expected; Expectations 48.5, 48.2 exp; 1-year inflation 4.5%, 4.8% exp, 5-to-10-year inflation 3.4%, 3.5% exp
UM: Current conditions fell back about 9%, owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases. Real income expectations continued a decline that began in March… https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
@RealEJAntoni: Consumer credit jumped in Mar by an annualized 5.83%, a rate last seen in Nov ’23, as both revolving and nonrevolving debt spiked; combined w/ various sales data, it’s clear this is due almost entirely to higher prices: https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2052477575000133918
@KobeissiLetter: The K-Shaped economy is worsening: Sentiment among consumers earning less than $50,000 is down to ~82 points, the 2nd-lowest since May 2023 and in-line with the 2020 pandemic low. At the same time, sentiment among those earning $50,000-$100,000 is down to ~90 points, near the lowest since December 2023. The sentiment index for both groups has been in a downtrend over the last 14 months. Meanwhile, sentiment among consumers earning over $100,000 has risen since February, to ~110 points, and stands above the 2023-2024 average. This comes as lower-income households are increasingly concerned about surging gasoline prices that are up +60% year-to-date, to $4.56/gallon, the highest since 2022. Financial strain on lower-income consumers is accelerating. https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2052543718666707323
Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Callihane warns that most people are “literally running out of money at the end of the month.” – WSJ
BBG: Executives across retail, restaurants and packaged goods are increasingly worried about US shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging gas prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. “They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month,” Kraft Heinz Co. Chief Executive Officer Steve Cahillane said in an interview this week. “We’re seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they’re dipping into savings… https://x.com/BurggrabenH/status/2052498865228513699
Foreclosure filings jump to six-year high as rising property taxes, insurance costs and debt strain U.S. homeowners – WSJ
@FluentInFinance: Whirlpool’s CFO said appliance demand hasn’t been this low since the 2008 financial crisis.Washing machines and refrigerators are leading economic indicators…
WSJ: Whirlpool has paid a dividend through 10 U.S. recessions and every global crisis since the 1950s. But the American manufacturer’s cash crunch has gotten so severe that it is suspending that payment until further notice…
@GlobalMktObserv: Most Americans can no longer afford to buy a home: The National Association of Home Builders found that 65% of US households CANNOT AFFORD a newly built home at current prices and mortgage rates, meaning housing costs would exceed 28% of their income. This affordability crisis is most severe in the Northeast, with New Hampshire the worst affected at 83% of households priced out. This is followed by Hawaii and Maine, also at 83%, and Vermont at 80%. Even the least affected states still see more than 50% of households locked out of new home ownership. Meanwhile, 25% of US non-homeowners say they expect to purchase a home within the next 5 years, marking the lowest level since Gallup first began tracking the question in 2013. Housing affordability crisis is major economic issue. https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/2052526897330807211
Trump on Thursday evening: “You know what’s happened today?! Gas prices are way down, and the stock market is way up today!” (Stocks declined on Thursday; but DJT has welded himself to stocks!) https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2052548863492272396
ESMs opened on the low of the session. 7336.25 (-26.75). They then steadily rallied to 7412.50 at 8:35 ET. Due to the stronger than expected April NFP, ESMs fell to 7389.00 at 9:10 ET. Buying for the NYSE opening took ESMs to a daily high of 7422.75 (+59.75) at 10:23 ET.
ESMs traded sideways until they made a modest new high of 7423.50 at 12:26 ET. ESMs then made a made two more modest new highs before finally hit a peak of 7427 75 at 14:00 ET. After a drop to 740750 at 1455 Eastern Time The late rally pushed ESM’s to 7425.00 at 16:04 ET.
The Atlantic: Trump Is ‘Bored’ With the War He Started He wants out, but Iran could likely keep going for months. He has declared victory many times, including about three weeks ago, when Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz. He has repeatedly extended his cease-fire deadlines instead of following through on his (sometimes-apocalyptic) threats to resume hostilities. Trump is tired of the war, which has proved far more difficult and lasted far longer than he had expected. His party is warily watching rising gas prices and falling poll numbers. He doesn’t want to be bogged down in a Middle East conflict like some of his predecessors were. He doesn’t want it to upend his high-stakes summit next week in China. He is ready to move on… https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/05/iran-war-trump-deal/687100/
Positive aspects of previous session The AI Bubble and stock euphoria pushed Nasdaq, the Nas 100, and the S&P to all-time highs USMs were +14/32 near the NYSE close.
Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline rallied smartly after being down sharply. Precious metals rallied modestly. Team Trump is running asset inflation and a stock bubble to paper over economic problems. Intel is up >170% in six weeks.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is Trump ready to declare victory on Iran and retreat? What will Bibi then do?
First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour:Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7387.80 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7401.50; 7362.97
@Newsforce: UK POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE – With only 31 of 136 councils declared, Reform is already dominating local elections: Reform (Nigel Farage’s Party): +258 seats, Labour: -188. Conservatives: -96. Britain’s two traditional parties are both getting hammered at the same time. This is starting to look less like a protest vote… and more like a political realignment.
@jasongoepfert on Friday: This will be the 4th time the S&P 500 $SPY has hit a record high while 5% of its members fall to 52-week lows.
1. July 1929 2. January 1973 3. December 1999 4. Today
@OilHeadlineNews: Israel believes no deal will be made with Iran and has informed the US that any return to fighting must include the destruction of Iran’s entire energy infrastructure in an estimated 24 hours. Several Arab countries hold the same position and support attacking the infrastructure, per Channel 12. Israel is on maximum alert following the exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel pushes US towards return to Iran war, ‘destruction’ of energy infrastructure Israeli officials believe Iran’s energy infrastructure could be destroyed “within 24 hours”, forcing Tehran into negotiations “from a position of severe weakness”… Trump backed away from attacking Iran’s energy facilities not only because of pressure from Gulf states, but from US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who reportedly believe Iranian concessions can still be extracted through negotiations… https://www.newarab.com/news/israel-pushes-us-iran-war-return-targeting-energy-sector
@gbrew24: US originally said they expected Iran’s response to the latest US proposal on Thursday. That didn’t happen. Trump and Rubio then said they expected the response on Friday. Didn’t happen. Iran is taking its time preparing a response. Meanwhile, silence. No Trump posts threatening Armageddon. No new deadlines. US seems content to wait.
@i24NEWS_EN on Sunday: Iran’s response to US proposal to end the war has been sent through Pakistan, says Iranian state media… Tehran’s response to the US proposal focuses on ending the war on all fronts, especially Lebanon, Iranian state media reports… ‘US sources say all other issues including an Israeli withdrawal will be discussed only after Hezbollah disarmament’…
Most people realize that Iran has employed the Rope-a-Dopey Trump strategy during negotiations – and the IRGC regime believes high energy prices will eventually force Trump to capitulate. ‘They’ also know gasoline demand will soon soar when the US drive season commences near Memorial Day.
@Eyalo365: I am afraid (concerned might be a better word) that no one in the West understands the way the Iranians or the East work: A. The worse their situation is, the more they raise the stakes. Maybe the enemy will be deterred. B. Attrition, attrition. Make the negotiations last longer and longer. First, it buys time (as Araghchi [Iran FM] writes in his book on foreign policy: “The goal of negotiations is to buy time”), but more than that: the idea is to make the other side fatigued and exhausted – especially if they have ADHD and get bored easily (“OK, I will pay 300 dinars for this carpet. Just let’s finish the haggling”). Iranians have patience. As one of them once told me: “A carpet sometimes takes 20 years in the making.” C. Escalation. It always works for them. This is Khamenei’s method: Always escalate. Hopefully Trump have advisers that can explain that this is not a real estate deal in NJ (western style negotiation). Just by using the word “deal” (instead of surrender) he gave them an edge.
‘Trump Is Toxic’: Pete Hegseth’s Pastor Says President Is Like ‘Chemo’ For America’s ‘Cancer’ “I view Trump as chemo,” Wilson told The Financial Times. “America has cancer. Trump is toxic, and I think he’s killing the cancer faster than he’s killing the rest of us.”… https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-toxic-pete-hegseth-pastor-204110071.html
WSJ: Iran rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities and proposed using the next 30 days to negotiate nuclear issues…
@StockMKTNewz: Iran wants a ceasefire first, a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear talks pushed to a separate 30-day negotiation window. On the uranium stockpile: Iran is willing to dilute some of its highly enriched uranium and transfer the rest to a third country. But only with a guarantee it gets returned if the deal falls apart. On enrichment: Iran will suspend it. But not for the 20-year moratorium the U.S. proposed. On dismantling nuclear facilities: flat rejection. The response was delivered through mediator Pakistan and forwarded to Washington. (Source – WSJ)
@Osint613 on Sunday afternoon: PM Netanyahu cut short an event at the Dead Sea and returned to Jerusalem for an urgent call with President Trump.
Trump: “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called “Representatives.” I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!“
@spectatorindex: Iranian state media says that Trump’s rejection of Iranian proposal ‘does not matter at all’ and that he ‘generally dislikes reality, which is why he is constantly being defeated by Iran’.
@Osint613: Iran National Security Spokesman Ebrahim Rezaei to President Trump: “The Best Course Is to Surrender” – “As of today, our restraint is over. Any aggression against our vessels will be met with a heavy and decisive Iranian response against American vessels and bases. The clock is ticking against the Americans’ interests; it is to their benefit not to act foolishly and sink themselves deeper into the quagmire they have fallen into. The best course is to surrender and concede concessions. You must get used to the new regional order.”
@Eyalo365: What Trump fails to understand is that it all looks like empty talk. Not only to the Iranians, who by now, understand that in negotiations they have the upper hand, but also to the American people. When someone just makes statement after statement – at some point even fans of Trump can see that he is bluffing. The Iranians saw through him long ago and this is why they are not backing down. The strongest military power in the world with weak leader is nullifying the strength. Trump losing what could have been his greatest legacy of toppling the 47 years of Iranian Islamic regime by the 47th president.
To avert mockery for being tooled around by Iran for months, DJT played the ‘but Obama is worse’ card.
Trump: Iran has been playing games with the United States, and the rest of the World, for 47 years (DELAY, DELAY, DELAY!), and then finally hit “pay dirt” when Barack Hussein Obama became President. He was not only good to them, he was great, actually going to their side, jettisoning Israel, and all other Allies, and giving Iran a major and very powerful new lease on life. Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and 1.7 Billion Dollars in green cash, flown into Tehran, was handed to them on a silver platter. Every Bank in D.C., Virginia, and Maryland was emptied out — It was so much money that when it arrived, the Iranian Thugs had no idea what to do with it. They had never seen money like this, and never will again. It was taken off the plane in suitcases and satchels, and the Iranians couldn’t believe their luck. They finally found the greatest SUCKER of them all, in the form of a weak and stupid American President. He was a disaster as our “Leader,” but not as bad as Sleepy Joe Biden! For 47 years the Iranians have been “tapping” us along, keeping us waiting, killing our people with their roadside bombs, destroying protests, and recently wiping out 42,000 innocent, unarmed protestors, and laughing at our now GREAT AGAIN Country. They will be laughing no longer!…
Netanyahu to “60 Minutes”: on Iran: “It’s not over because there’s still nuclear material… You go in and take it.” Netanyahu claims Trump told him: “I want to go in there.”
@SecScottBessent: In advance of @POTUS’ historic summit with President Xi in Beijing, I will depart on Monday for a quick series of meetings in both Japan and South Korea. On Tuesday, I will meet in Tokyo with Prime Minister @takaichi_sanae, Finance Minister @satsukikatayama, and other government and private sector representatives for discussions on the U.S.-Japan economic relationship. On Wednesday, I will stop in Seoul for a discussion with Vice Premier He Lifeng of China, before continuing on to Beijing for the Leaders’ Summit between President Trump and President Xi. Economic security is national security, and I look forward to a productive series of engagements as we work to advance President Trump’s America First Economic Agenda. (WH: DJT will arrive in China on Wed.)
Unfathomably and shamefully, Trump posted this, and a pic, last night: The Magnificent Ballroom, under construction, and ahead of schedule, at the White House! President DONALD J. TRUMP (Who cares?!) https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116552583348896285
Today – This May Expiration Week. When call volume has been extremely high, the usual Expiry Rally and Manipulation have faltered on overhanging liquidation.
ESMs fell to 7393.75 (-25.25) at 18:03 ET on Sunday night but quickly rebounded because traders are euphoric for stocks. June WTI Oil hit 98.85 (+$3.42) on the 18 ET opening; June Gasoline hit 361.50c (+8.73s); NQMs fell to 29250 (-107.50) at 18 ET but turned positive an hour later on AI euphoria.
Traders realize history shows that when DJT inveighs against Iran on the weekend and stocks sink on Monday, the odds of a Trump TACO Tuesday are very high. So, declines could be muted & brief.
ESMs are -11.50, NQMs are +20.25; USMs are -8/32; WTI oil is +$3.24; gasoline is +7.62c at 20:07 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6863; 100-day MA: 6881; 150-day MA: 6841; 200-day MA: 6753 DJIA 50-day MA: 47,875;100-day MA: 48,479; 150-day MA: 48.011; 200-day MA: 47,332 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (7398.93 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6513.48 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7253.06 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 7368.78 triggers a sell sign
The Virginia Supreme Court overturned the Dem’s redistricting referendum, which would have produced 10 Dem Congressional Seats and 1 GOP Seat instead of the current Dem 6, GOP 5 configuration. The Court said Dems violated Virginia Constitution laws.
Fox’s @BillMelugin_: The redistricting war is turning into a total catastrophe for House Democrats.
@CarolineWren So the Judge that authored the opinion forcing Utah to redraw their Congressional map (which added an absurd Democrat seat) just resigned after her ex-husband alleged she was having an affair with the plaintiffs’ attorney in the redistricting case that she presided over….
Google AI: Morton Salt has moved its corporate headquarters out of the Chicago area, ending a… 176-year association with the city… reports suggest that the move was driven by a desire to escape high taxes, a challenging regulatory environment, and a need to reduce overhead… (To Overland Park, KS)
Wall Street giant Apollo aims to open ‘second headquarters’ outside NYC – in latest fallout from Mamdani’s war on the wealthyhttps://trib.al/P3cec0z
Babylon Bee: UFO Files Reveal Aliens Here and Already Defrauded Minnesota for $20 Billion
@PeterSweden7: In 2021, two vials of Hantavirus went missing from a biolab in Australia. Authorities assure us that there’s very low risk to the public. In 2024, Moderna began a collaboration working to develop a mRNA vaccine for Hantavirus.
Gavin Newsom under fire over $20M diaper deal tied to wife-linked nonprofit network https://trib.al/4RXC2ny
NYT: A Private Call Reveals Democrats’ Desperation Over Tossing of Map A conversation involving House members from Virginia and the top House Democrat reflected the fury and desperation that has gripped the party after Friday’s ruling in the state… The most dramatic idea they discussed — which would involve an unusual gambit to replace the entire state Supreme Court… One key to the plan would be having Democrats in Richmond lower the mandatory retirement age for state Supreme Court justices… Ensuring the plan proceeds would involve the General Assembly, which is controlled by Democrats, lowering the mandatory retirement age for Virginia’s Supreme Court from 75 to 54, the age of the youngest current justice, or less… https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/10/us/politics/democrats-virginia-plans-gerrymandering.html?unlocked_article_code=1.hVA.iCzy.4i-WoGMlAprp&referringSource=articleShare
Dems want to tear up the Virginia Constitution and expel all Supreme Court Justices of Virginia because the court ruled against their redistricting scheme. Yet most GOP Senators fear passing voter ID legislation that over 80% of Americans and over 90% of Republicans desire!
@NewsPolitics: How can President Trump possibly leave for China on Tuesday? With the situation in Iran still up in the air.
@Newsforce: CHICAGO POLITICIAN DEMANDS CHARGES OVER WALGREENS CLOSURE The Walgreens at 86th and Cottage Grove is set to shut down June 4, leaving many seniors and patients without a nearby pharmacy. Company leaders said rising theft and violence made it too difficult to keep the store open, while local officials call it “first degree corporate abandonment”. Dozens marched into the South Side store chanting “Do right by us!” as city alderman William Hall called for the pharmacy to be criminally charged for closing its doors. https://x.com/Newsforce/status/2051426643986808979
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Judge Who Oversaw Utah Gerrymander Resigns For Affair With Plaintiff’s Attorney
With partisan battle lines being drawn nationwide in a legal showdown over redistricting, Utah may be next in line after the judge who forcibly gerrymandered a congressional seat for Democrats stepped down in disgrace.
Diana Hagen, a justice on the Utah Supreme Court resigned Friday in a letter to Gov. Spencer Cox.
Although Utah’s map currently has Republicans representing all four seats, the courts said it must redraw the maps ahead of the 2026 election to create a Democrat-favorable district around Salt Lake City.
The case centered on a 2018 ballot initiative that sought to create an independent voting commission to draw the maps. The legislature later passed its own 2020 law that limited the commission to an advisory role, but the courts determined it lacked the authority to do so.
Hagen subsequently recused herself from the proceedings after her ex-husband leaked text messages showing that she had been conducting an affair with attorney David Reymann, who was representing the plaintiffs in the redistricting case.
Although an independent investigation by the Judicial Conduct Commission found the allegations against Hagen had “very little credibility,” she continued to face pressure to resign over the perceived conflict of interest.
In her letter of resignation, Hagen cited the extra scrutiny on her private life and the toll it had taken on her family.
“They do not deserve to have intensely personal details surrounding the painful dissolution of my thirty-year marriage subjected to public scrutiny,” she wrote.
In a terse press release acknowledging the resignation, Cox’s office said only that additional information about filling the vacancy would be forthcoming.
With previous rulings against the Utah legislature having been unanimous, it is unclear that Hagen’s departure will change the calculus.
Moreover, the seat’s current occupant, RINO Rep. Blake Moore, voiced support for Proposition 4, the ballot initiative that would turn his own seat blue.
Under the new maps, Moore will run in a different district, with Riley Owen, an Oxford-educated naval intelligence officer and CEO, running in the newly blue-leaning District 1.
Ben Sellers is a freelance authored writer and former editor of Headline USA. Follow him atx.com/realbensellers.
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING MARTIN ARMSTRONG..
Iran Bombs UAE to Trigger Financial Meltdown – Martin Armstrong
Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong warned in early February “This is When Volatility Kicks In.” At the time, oil was around $63 a barrel, and now it $95 a barrel. Armstrong says, “The ramifications are quite extensive. . .. It’s not going to be over quickly. That’s what our computer forecasted from the beginning. I said this when I first came on about it. Computer says, sorry, this is not going to be an in and out situation like Venezuela. It will be dragged out.”
One of the most frightening new pieces to the puzzle is UAE (United Arab Emirates). According to Armstrong, “I don’t think people appreciate what is there. UAE became more or less Switzerland after the Swiss confiscated money from Russians. They said you knew Putin, so we are just taking all your money. . .. The money started to move to Dubai and Singapore. That’s why the Iranians attacked there. We have offices there. Everybody is there. . .. They damaged this short term, and I can tell you the banking system went down for a week. We could not even send money to our staff to get them the hell out. . .. (This is one of the reasons gold sold off. Armstrong told me that people needed liquidity.) All the cables that connect the banking system from the East to the West run through the Strait of Hormuz. . .. People look at the Middle East and think they are flush with cash. They have no idea they are in a debt crisis. Iran understands this–attacking the refineries and the infrastructure of the Gulf States. What happens? You cut off their ability to sell oil. That creates a debt crisis. . .. Iran bombed UAE more than Israel. . ..
Washinton does not grasp this. I have yelled at them, and I think it goes in one ear and out the other. This is much more serious, and if they succeed in creating a debt crisis, that will filter into the banks. Then the banks start getting into trouble. This does more than send oil up and put pressure economically on Europe and the United States. This is the key to a banking crisis.”
Armstrong says this Iran war will last the rest of 2026, and gasoline prices in the US could hit $9 a gallon. Armstrong says, “We are at a point where governments collapse. . .. What we are facing is a sovereign debt crisis globally. International debt reached $353 trillion last month. It doesn’t stop. They don’t pay off debt. They just roll it over. This will come to a crisis because interest payments keep rising. Our interest expenditure exceeds military.”
In closing, Armstrong is still a buyer of gold, silver, food and holding some cash. Armstrong says the US dollar is not going to be replaced as the world reserve currency anytime soon. This might be a reason why Warren Buffett is holding a record $400 billion in cash.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong to talk about how the Iran war will not be over soon and how the world is facing a global debt crisis that could be triggered by Iran bombing UAE for 5.9.26.
harveyorganblog.com 
