MAY 21/TRUMP RECEIVES FINAL DRAFT AND IT IS NOT WORTH THE PAPER IT IS PRINTED ON: GOLD HOWEVER CLOSED UP $7.60 TO $4541.40 WHILE SILSVER CLOSED UP $0.64 TO $76.59//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $18.00 TO $1973.00 WITH PALLADIUM UP $18.50 TO $1394.00//AN EXTREMELY IMPORTANT PODCAST TONIGHT FROM ANDREW MAGUIRE ON GOLD AND SILVER WITH EMPHASIS ON THE PETRO YUAN TO GOLD STRUCTURE//ALSO GOLD PODCAST COURTESY OF ITM TRADING//ASIAN REPORTS TONIGHT FROM SOUTH KOREA RE SAMSUNG AND CHINA ON RARE EARTHS//EUROPEAN REPORTS TONIGHT FROM THE UK AND GREECE//IN THE UK A ONE YR OLD CHILD HAS BEEN CRIMINALLY CHARGED/BOOKED WITH MISCHIEF//ISRAEL AND USA VS IRAN: FINAL DRAFT RECEIVED//MORE UPDATES ON THE CONFLICT//ISRAEL TBN/BIG UPDATE ON THE FOOLISHNESS OF THE TURKISH PRESIDENT ERODGAN ON HOW HE DEFENDS THE TURKISH LIRA; IT IS FALLING INTO OBLIVION//MAJOR UPDATES ON RUSSIA AS IT HOLDS MAJOR DRILLS WITH BELARUS; THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE SO FAR THIS YEAR IS THE STRONGEST CURRENCY GAIN/MAJOR UPDATES ON OIL//USA DATA RELEASES ON OUR PMI’S//BIG STORY ON THE HUGE SELLING OF USA TREASURIES FROM JAPAN AND CHINA//KING NEWS/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 119 118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 2 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 361 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 412 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 198 220 686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 160 905 C ADM 37 3
TOTAL: 756 756 MONTH TO DATE: 6,310
MAY 21
MAY COMEX MONTH
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 230/756
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2026: 756 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 75,600 OZ or 2.3515 TONNES
total notices so far: 6310 contracts FOR 631,000 OZ OR 19.626 TONNES
FOR MAY 21
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES:37 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR .185 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5681 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 28.405 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $7.60 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.64 AT THE SLV: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// : INVENTORY RESTS AT THE SLV AT 488.338 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 488.338 MILLION
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 188 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 100,939 STILL HIGHER FROM ITS NEW RECORD LOW OF 95,999 SET MAY 1. THE RECORD HIGH OI FOR SILVER IS 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.27 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. ON THE FIRST OF MAY, WE REACHED OUR RECORD LOW OI OF 95,999 SURPASSING EVERY DAY NEW OI LOWS SET DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL 2026.
NOW ON A NET BASIS OUR SPECULATORS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO GOING LONG. THE FRBNY ON A NET BASIS IS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER TO OUR LONGS ALONG WITH SOME BULLION BANKS AND THEN A HUGE NUMBERS OF LONGS ,OUR CENTRAL BANKERS, TAKE THE LONG SIDE AND TENDER FOR PHYSICAL AT 4 PM EACH NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE HUGE SHORTFALL IN PHYSICAL SILVER IN LONDON THERE IS A LOTTERY TO SEE WHO GETS ANY OF THE PHYSICAL SILVER AVAILABLE THAT WHICH THEY ARE OBLIGATED TO DELIVER. THEY WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THEIR PHYSICAL METAL AND IF NOBODY GETS ANY THEY THEN COME BACK THE NEXT DAY AND SO ON. THIS IS IN LONDON, THE HOME OF PHYSICAL SILVER!!
WE ARE FINALLY MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE IN SILVER PRICING AT MAJOR SUPPORT LEVEL OF $70.00. SHORTLY WE WILL AGAIN ATTEMPT TO BREAK
WE HAVE A SMALL GAIN OF 188 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A ZERO SIZED SIZED 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..(STRANGE) , WE HAD NO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING// WE HAD A HUGE 795 CONTRACT T.A.S. ISSUANCE!! / THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TODAY TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $100.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILRD ON WEDNESDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE
THE PRICE STILL FINISHED ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $70.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE BUT STILL BELOW THE $100.00 MARK CLOSING AT $75.95 UP $1.27. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING HAVING MANY HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES // TODAY’S WAS A HUGE SIZED 795 T.A.S. CONTRACTS !!. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING ABOVE THE 100.00 DOLLAR MARK!! AND NOW THE HUGE SUPPORT LEVEL OF 70 DOLLARS!!.MAMMOTH SIZE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE BECOMING THE NORM AT THE COMEX NOW!!
THERE IS NO NEXT LINE IN THE SAND ONCE THE 100.00 DOLLAR SILVER IS PIERCED AGAIN. WE HAD A ZERO SIZED 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 795 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING//AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE.
IN ESSENCE WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 188 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.27. WE HAD HUGE GOVERNMENT (FRBY) COMEX CONTRACTS TRADING ALL WEEK AND A MAJOR PORTION WILL BE REMOVED BY DAYS END. (I RECORD THIS FOR YOU ON A DAILY BASIS). THE STICKY SPECULATOR LONGS STILL REMAIN STOIC
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.
THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, THROUGHOUT MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: A HUGE SIZED 795 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THESE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED FRBNY BANKERS).
THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS AS ONE UNIT, BUT SELL THE SHORT SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE LONG SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS NOW ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACTS OR 0.005 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 86 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP TO LONDONO FOR 0.430 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ/STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.130 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.385 MILLION OZ/.//(32.130 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.385 MILLION OZ)
SUMMARY OF OUR MAY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
WE HAD:
/ SMALL COMEX GAIN+// ZERO SIZED 0 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS (/ VI) A HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 795 CONTRACTS
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:REMOVED 72 SILVER CONTRACT//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY.. ACCUMULATION
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 DAY(S), total 10,081 contracts: OR 50.405 MILLION OZ (672 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 50.405 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 50.405 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 188 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.27 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A ZERO SIZED CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY, AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS).
INITIAL STANDING: 31.495 MILLION OZ NOW DECREASES WITH OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP TO LONDON FOR 86 CONTRACTS OR 0.430 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING IS THUS REDUCES TO 32.560 MILLION OZ/BUT WE THEN ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ..TOTAL STANDING REDUCES TO 32.385 MILLION OZ//
LAST 14 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 430,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.130 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING STILL REDUCES TO 32.385 MILLION OZ//
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FOR TODAY (795) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING!
WE HAD 37 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.185 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY BANKERS
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 4,659 OI CONTRACTS UP TO 374,666 OI ADVANCING FROM ITS ALL TIME LOW OF 354,581 OI AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE HAVE NOW ADVANCED PAST THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS OF 357,136 SET APRIL 2/.2026. WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAY FROM OUR TWO DECADES OLD: 390,000 CONTRACTS LOW SET IN THE YEAR OF 2001 WITH TRADING FOR GOLD AT $260.00. THUS DURING EARLY APRIL WE HAD AN ALL TIME LOW OI IN COMEX (354,531) BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE COMEX SHIP, NOBODY WANT TO PLAY IN THIS CROOKED CASINO!! (AND THIS CORRELATES WITH SILVER’S LOW OI OF 106.954 CONTRACTS WITH A MUCH HIGHER SILVER PRICE BASE)
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 11,498 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI (4659 ONTRACTS) . THIS LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $26.30 //WEDNESDAY///.
LAST 13 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES: (MAY 2025 THROUGH TO /MAY 2026)
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
2 JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
3.JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 27800 OZ/ (0.8646 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 961 CONTRACTS OR 96,100 OZ (3,082 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 12.292 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 33.896 TONNES OF GOLD.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING MAY. GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3025 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT A LOW OF 374,666 ADVANCING FROM OUR RECORD LOW OF 354,581 AND WE NOW WITNESSING A LOWER COMEX OI BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH
SILVER ALSO HAS AN ULTRA SMALL SIZED AND EXTREMELY LOW COMEX OI OF 100,939 CONTRACTS// RISING FROM PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS SET DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL AND MAY FIRST.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN COMEX GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1634 CONTRACTS WITH 4659 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3025 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1634 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A MUCH SMALLER SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1382 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON. THE STRING OF 5 CONSECUTIVE HUGE ISSUANCES OF T.A.S. THUS ENDED LAST FRIDAY.
GOLD PRICE ON WEDNESDAY ROSE BY $26.30
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(3025 ) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI OF 4659 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES 1634 CONTRACTS!! DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.
WE HAVE 1) NOW REVERTED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKER (FRBNY) GOING ON THE SHORT SIDE AND SOME NEWBIE SPECULATORS GOING TO THE LONG SIDE BUT OTHER SPECS GOING ALSO TO THE SHORT SIDE LED BY THE NOSE BY HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS AND SPREADERS..
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 961 CONTRACTS/96,100 OZ// 3.082 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK 4 OCCASIONS: 12.292 TONNES///NEW STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 33.996 TONNES
3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION IN THE COMEX SESSION AND SOME GOVT LIQUIDATION // WITH A HUGE GAIN OF EQUITY SHARES/MAY 20 HAVING 1)A $26.30 COMEX PRICE GAIN AND WE HAD 2) SPEC LONGS PILING HUGELY ON THE SHORT SIDE// +3. EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ALSO PILING INTO THE LONG SIDE. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 9864 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND AS WELL A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN MAY. (33.996 TONNES). //, CENTRAL BANKERS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL WITH THEIR PURCHASES OF CONTRACTS../ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4)A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) V) STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD(3025) AND 6. A FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE (1382) FOR RAID PURPOSES LIKE TODAY.!!!
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 26,153 CONTRACTS OR 2,615,300 OZ OR 81.347 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1743 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 81.347 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2025, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 81.347 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.29% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2023 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2024: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES
2025: AND NOW 2026
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 81.347 TONNES
SPREADERS:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL 188 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 100,961.
EFP ISSUANCE 0 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 0 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 188 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 0 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN OF 188 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.27
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.94 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $1.27
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MAY 21 /2025
HANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 84.91 PTS OR 2.04%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 264.60 PTS OR 1.03%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1853.59 PTS OR 3.10%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .22%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.8020
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8055 Oil UP TO 100.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 107.28 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP (6.8020) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8055 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG 4,659 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 374,666 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET LATE LAST MONTH AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD NO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE BUT WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPECULATORS WHO CONTINUALLY GO TO THE SHORT SIDE AND AND OF COURSE THEY WILL BE ANNHILATED ON CENTRAL BANK COMMAND!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MAY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $26.30).
WE THUS HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 1634 CONTRACTS (OR 5.082 TONNES) WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A STRONG CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, EQUATING TO 3025 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 166 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 16,600 OZ OR 0.536 TONNES OF GOLD. A FEW DAYS AGO BY FAR WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK EVER ISSUED AT ONE TIME. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 AND NOW TODAY MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FOUR ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 3,920 CONTRACTS OR 392,000 OZ OR 12.192 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FOUR ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 3920 CONTRACTS, 392,000 OZ OR 12.292 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MAY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1634 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE ($26.30). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MAY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS FINALLY A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1382 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 3RD ISSUANCE FOR 11.676 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 12.292 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 AND NOW MAY 21.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 96,100 OZ (3.082 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 392,000 OZ OR 12.292 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 33.896 TONNESS
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MAY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $26.30)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS STILL REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT//THURSDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $26.30
WE HAD A HUGE 11,498 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 1634 CONTRACTS OR 163,400 OZ OR 5.082 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6310 notices 631000 oz 19.626 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 1
i) BRINKS 31,941.499 oz 1149 kilobars)
TOTAL WITHDRAWAL: 31,941.499 OZ (1.149 TONNES)
adjustments: 5// ONE //CUSTOMER TO DEALER; OTHER 4 DEALER TO CUSTOMER
a) Asahi customer to dealer: 35,685.181 oz
b) Brinks: dealer to customer: 11,786.181 oz
c) Malca dealer to customer: 13,406.967 oz
d) Manfra: 6414.477 oz dealer to customer
e) Stonex: 6384.212 oz dealer to customer
Net 2,706.696 oz out of the dealer into the customer accts.
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI STANDS AT 1392 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 103 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 858 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 961 CONTRACTS OR 96,100 OZ (3.082 TONNES) UNDERWENT A HUGE QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THIS QUEUE JUMP IS CENTRAL BANK CLAMORING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 19,485 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 166,466. JUNE BECOMES THE NEW FRONT MONTH AND WE SHOULD HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY.
JULY LOST 10 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 1677.
We had 756 contracts filed for today representing 75,600oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 756 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 220 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6,310) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1392 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 756 x 100 oz per contract) equals 694,600 OZ OR (21.604 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our FOUR exchange for risk issuance for 392,200 oz or 12.292 tonnes//new standing for gold/May again advances to 33.896 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6,310) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY( xxx CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 756 x 100 oz per contract) equals 694,600 OZ OR (21.604 Tonnes of gold) plus we must add our FOUR exchange for risk issuances of 392,200 oz or 12.292 tonnes/new standing advances to 33.896 tonness
new total of gold standing in MAY ADVANCES TO 33.896 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY 33.896 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY confirmed 209,926// fair// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,911,131.257 oz 59.44 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,911,131.257 tonnes oz 59.44 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 28,660,544.627oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,720,995.771 488.988 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,939,548.856 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,809,864 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
429.54 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 21
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
2 entries
i) Out of Loomis: 607,009.030 oz ii Out of CNT: 600,713.800 oz
total withdrawal: 1,207,722.830 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
0 entries
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 ENTRIES
No of oz served today (contracts)
37 CONTRACT(S) (0.185 MILLION OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
868 Contracts (4.340 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5,681 contracts 28.405 MILLION oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) Out of Loomis: 607,009.030 oz ii Out of CNT: 600,713.800 oz
total withdrawal: 1,207,722.830 oz
adjustments 1 customer to dealer
a) Manfra; 19,940.417 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.689 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 314.647 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2026 OI: 782 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 102 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 16 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON ON WEDNESDAY SO WE LOST86 CONTRACT OR 0.430 MILLION OZ UNDERWENT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND. IT SHOWS THAT THERE IS NO REAL PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE TO BE DELIVERED UPON.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 11 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2889 OI CONTRACTS
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 56 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 72,414 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 37 or 0.185 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume WEDNESDAY; 45,025 fair
XXX
AND NOW MAY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5681 X5,000 oz = 28.405 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (782) AND the number of notices served upon today (37 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2026 contract month: (5,681 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (782) minus number of notices served upon today (37)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY..contract month equating to 32.130 MILLION OZ.+TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.255 MILLION OZ//
NEW STANDING REDUCES T0: 32.385 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 81.689 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 140.287/314.649 million: 44.58
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAY 21 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
MAY 20 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.999 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
MAY 19 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.85 TONNES
MAY 18 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 15 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $118.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 14 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 13 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 12 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.515 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.995 TONNES
MAY 8 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.283 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.480TONNES
MAY 7 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.853 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.197TONNES
MAY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $124.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.718 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.05TONNES
MAY 5 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 4 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $106.65 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
APRIL 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.142 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.195 TONNES
APRIL 29/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $45.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 28/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $85.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 27/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.91 TONNES
APRIL 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP 26.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 11.90TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.783 TONNES
APRIL 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.289 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.478 TONNES
APRIL 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $83.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.714 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.192 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1036.851 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.64: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
MAY 20 WITH SILVER UP $1.27: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
MAY 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.39: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.086 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
MAY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $7.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.9000 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3,79: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.448 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.524 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $3,62: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.086 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.087 MILLION OZ
MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.176 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.990 MILLION OZ
MAY 11 WITH SILVER UP $5.10: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.995 MILLION OZ OF SILVER PUT OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.814 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.689 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.809 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.26: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $3.75: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.724 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.21: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.05: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP $2.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.905 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.338 MILLION OZ
APRIL 30 WITH SILVER UP $2.03: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.991 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.243MILLION OZ
APRIL 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.95: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.39: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 24 WITH SILVER UP 0.92: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,23MILLION OZ
APRIL 23WITH SILVER DOWN $2.35: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.489 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488,773MILLION OZ
APRIL 22 WITH SILVER UP 1.43: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262MILLION OZ
aPRIL 21 WITH SILVER DOWN 3.71: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17 WITH SILVER UP $3.09: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.900 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.132 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.477 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.01: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.588 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.579 MILLION OZ
APRIL 14 WITH SILVER UP $3.99: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.589 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.624 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 488.338 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
4.ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 273 and 272
MUST VIEWl ANDREW’S NEWEST PODCAST
Ted Oakley//272
5. COMMODITY REPORT/GOLD
A 1973 Repeat: Gold to Soar Amidst Oil Embargo, Inflation Says Analyst
by ITM Trading
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 15:03
Markets may be sleepwalking into a 1970s-style inflation shock. Gold analyst John Doody warns that escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could trigger an oil embargo scenario eerily similar to the crises that sent gold soaring from $35 to $850 an ounce decades ago. With deficits exploding, central banks de-dollarizing, and a Fed chair allegedly unwilling to aggressively hike rates, Doody sees inflation reaccelerating toward 6% or higher. His message: gold remains the ultimate refuge as geopolitical instability collides with fiscal recklessness. Meanwhile, silver remains “gold on steroids,” while mining M&A activity signals insiders are positioning for much higher metals prices.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 84.91 PTS OR 2.04%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 264.60 PTS OR 1.03%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1853.59 PTS OR 3.10%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .22%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.8020
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8055 Oil UP TO 100.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 107.28 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP (6.8020) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8055 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.8020
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.8055
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 264.60 PTS OR 1.03%
2. Nikkei closed UP 1853.59 PTS OR 3.10%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 100.52
BRENT; 107.28
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.23/// EURO FALLS TO 1.1605 DOWN 19 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.758 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 159.13… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.030 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.8020 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.8055
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.1162// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.888// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.560%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.785%
3j Gold at $4515.85 //Silver at: 74.87 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 43/ 100 roubles/71.01
3m oil (WTI) into the 100 dollar handle for WTI and 107 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 159.13 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.758% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 4.030 DOWN 3 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7879 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9144
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.621 UP 8 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.143 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.096 UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.62 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.9920 DOWN 1 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.670 UP 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.620 UP 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.271 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Slump, Ignoring Korean Euphoria, After Iran Rejects Trump Enriched Uranium Demands
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 07:38 AM
A steady rebound in US equities driven by peak insanity in Korea (where the two chip stocks that account for most of the market surged and sent the Kospi soaring more than 8% overnight) faded after a report that Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain in the country,rejecting Trump’s key ceasefire demand, while oil and bond yields jumped as traders waited in mounting futility to see whether hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East would translate into tangible progress. As of 7:15am ET, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% and Nasdaq futures slid 0.3% after otherwise very strong Nvidia’s earnings failed to ignite further strong gains in the artificial intelligence trade. Treasuries fell as Brent reversed earlier losses to climb 2% above $107 after Tehran’s response disappointed those hoping for de-escalation. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon did not help, warning that interest rates may climb much further from current levels. Long-dated bonds around the world have tested multiyear highs in recent days on concern about an oil-driven spike in inflation and amid worries over government spending.
Yesterday’s Nvidia earnings proved to be a dud: Nvidia shares were unchanged (crushing both put and call buyers as the implied vol collapse) in US premarket trading after the AI chipmaker reported Q1 results and gave a forecast amid increased investor skepticism. While analysts were broadly positive, some also questioned the sustainability of growth, especially amid higher competition. Intuit sank 13% after the software company said it plans to reduce its workforce by about 17%. The shares of space exploration and satellite internet companies were broadly steady after Elon Musk’s SpaceX filed publicly for an initial public offering. Tesla advanced 1.6%, while other Mag 7 stocks were mixed (Amazon +0.6%, Alphabet +0.3%, Meta -0.2%, Apple -0.3%, Microsoft -0.3%).
Aevex Corp. (AVEX) is up 8.5% after the drone maker reported first-quarter earnings. The company also announced that it was awarded $15.6 million in contracts by the US Air Force.
Applied Digital (APLD) jumps 11% after the company signed a 15-year lease valued at about $7.5 billion with a US investment-grade hyperscaler for its Polaris Forge 3 campus.
Elf Beauty Inc. (ELF) is up 9.9% after the cosmetics company beat the average analyst estimate on major profit and revenue estimates. Meanwhile, the company forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2027 that fell short of expectations.
Intuit (INTU) sinks 13% after the tax-preparation software company reported third-quarter results that were seen as disappointing for its TurboTax business. It also said it is cutting about 17% of its staff, confirming an earlier Reuters report.
Nebius (NBIS) is up 8.4% after partnering with Bloom Energy to deploy fuel-cell technology to power its AI infrastructure build-out in the US. Bloom rises 2.6%.
In other corporate news, Samsung reached a tentative last-minute deal with its union, averting a potentially crippling strike scheduled to start on Thursday at the world’s biggest memory firm.
Virtually all overnight gains in the S&P faded just after 6am when Reuters blasted the following two headlines which poured cold water on expectations of a quick deescalation in the Iran war
*IRAN SUPREME LEADER SAYS URANIUM MUST STAY IN IRAN: REUTERS
*IRAN SUPREME LEADER ISSUES DIRECTIVE ON URANIUM: REUTERS
Almost overshadowed by headlines related to AI-disrupter Anthropic and SpaceX, Nvidia’s results produced the expected high growth. Nvidia’s revenue growth shows that the momentum of the debt-fueled AI data-center buildout is accelerating. While analysts are broadly positive, some also questioned the sustainability of growth, especially amid higher competition. Some also pointed to the company’s compute revenue miss as an early warning sign, especially with Nvidia changing the way it reports revenue so it masks this weakness going forward. Nvidia’s price reaction was expected to be more muted compared to the last few years – call open interest has been drifting lower. While this suggests a cooling in the speculative chase that previously defined the popular AI trade, it isn’t dimming the price action of peripheral beneficiaries – a windfall for Asian chip makers.
“Investors remain relentless in pursuit of supernormal returns offered by AI,” said Emmanuel Valavanis, an equity sales specialist at Forte Securities, noting how narrow the market has become given a “laser beam focus on AI, the biggest tech infrastructure build-out of 21st century.”
Shortly after the Nvidia results, SpaceX filed publicly for what stands to be the largest-ever IPO, revealing billions in losses and a super-voting share plan allowing Elon Musk to keep the company under his control. SpaceX had a net loss of $4.28 billion on revenue of $4.69 billion for the first quarter, compared with a net loss of $528 million on revenue of about $4 billion a year earlier, the filing shows.
While this will surely change, for now SpaceX is now a cash incinerating machine, with nearly $25BN in cash burn in the last 12 months.
“We believe that our current space efforts will catalyze transformative breakthroughs that could reshape terrestrial industries and lead to the emergence of new trillion-dollar markets on the Moon, Mars, and beyond.” Space Exploration said in its Form S-1.
Elsewhere Jamie Dimon said interest rates may climb much higher from current levels, while his firm will likely hire more AI specialists and fewer traditional bankers as the adoption of the technology accelerate.
The muted tone in US markets contrasted with buoyant optimism in Asia, where a key tech gauge jumped the most in six weeks.
Overnight Asia saw stock market fireworks with Korea’s LG Electronics and Hyundai Mobis both surging in Seoul after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang touted new opportunities offered by robots and automated vehicles. SoftBank Group Corp. jumped 20% as two companies backed by the Japanese investor – OpenAI and SB Energy Corp. – were said to be preparing for initial public offerings. Regional chipmakers tracked Wednesday’s gains in US peers.
“The rally in Asia has been supported by very strong momentum in technology, particularly around the current reality of AI demand,” said Francisco Simón, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management. “Looking ahead, investors also continue to see structural growth potential linked to the future evolution of AI, including companies that may emerge as leaders.”
European shares edged higher after early declines as investors digested earnings reports and purchasing managers’ index data from across the region. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, British defense technology firm QinetiQ was among the top gainers after posting strong results and announcing a new share buyback programme, while Ubisoft slumped on weak bookings. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
QinetiQ shares jumped as much as 11%, the biggest daily rise in over a year, after earnings showed a profit beat and a buyback initiative.
Investec rallied as much as 5.3% in London to its highest intraday level since April after the specialist lender reported net income for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate.
Generali shares rose as much as 2.9%, the best performer on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the Italian insurer reported what analysts say are strong 1Q earnings.
CSG shares rose as much as 5.9% after Oddo BHF upgraded the defense company to outperform from neutral, saying there is potential for significant re-rating after a short attack sent the stock plunging earlier this month.
Naturgy Energy Group shares gained as much as 3.4%, trading at their highest level since 2022, after receiving upgrades from Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas.
Alfen rose as much as 25% after a Jefferies upgrade gives it a sole buy rating, with the energy-equipment company seen favorably positioned to capitalize on the energy transition theme, with double-digit growth in all end-markets.
Greece’s Public Power rose as much as 6% to a record high after it concluded a share capital increase on Wednesday.
Hexagon shares fell as much as 18% on Thursday, their first day of trading excluding rights to the company’s upcoming spin off of its subsidiary Octave.
Ubisoft shares slumped as much as 19% on Thursday after the video game maker guided to a high single-digit percentage drop in net bookings for the coming fiscal year, well below expectations.
Convatec shares dropped as much as 5.6%, worst performer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Thursday morning, after the medical products and equipment manufacturer provided an update for the first four months of 2026.
MaaT Pharma shares plunge as much as 61%, the most on record, after the French biotech company said its experimental therapy Xervyteg for acute graft-versus-host disease is likely to be turned down by the European Medicines Agency.
Autotrader falls as much as 4.8%, most since Feb. 3, after a soft earnings report which analysts said will weaken confidence in the online vehicle marketplace. The stock has lost about a fifth of its value this year.
Elior slumped as much as 26%, the most since November 2024, after the French catering and food services company’s first-half results came in significantly below expectations and it lowered guidance for the full year.
Investors are also getting a reading into business activity in major economies against a backdrop of rising energy costs. The data compiled by S&P Global are closely watched as they arrive early in the month and are good at revealing trends and turning points. In the UK, businesses posted the first decline in output in over a year as the Iran shock and a mounting rebellion against Prime Minister Keir Starmer hit activity in the services sector. In the euro area, activity shrank at the quickest pace in 2 1/2 years.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities snapped a four-day losing streak, with a rally in tech shares and easing Middle East tensions helping lift sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.8%, the most over a month. South Korea’s Kospi surged more than 8% to lead gains in the region after Samsung Electronics reached a tentative deal with its labor union. Shares in Taiwan and Japan also jumped. Chip heavyweights contributed the most to the Asian benchmark’s gains. Meanwhile, SoftBank Group shares soared in Japan after reports said that two of the companies it backs are preparing to list in the US.
Walmart, Ralph Lauren and Deere are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. While confident in its ability to win market share, Walmart is unlikely to raise full-year guidance given persistent uncertainties from higher fuel and freight costs, Citi said. Numbers from Take-Two and Workday follow later in the day.
In commodities, Brent crude futures are up 2% to near $107 a barrel, erasing an earlier fall, after a report that Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad. European stocks surrendered gains and turned red on the news, while US equity futures dropped. Precious metals extended declines.
Bonds also sold off, with the decline in Treasuries pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.61%. European government followed suit, led lower by shorter dated maturities.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2% while the Swedish krona and Aussie dollar slipped to the bottom of the G-10 FX pile, losing 0.4% each. While a resolution could put the dollar under selling pressure, conviction of a lasting peace deal is lower, ING strategists say. “The dollar’s contained reaction to Trump’s comments leaves a relatively larger scope for further downside if a deal is indeed about to be agreed,” they write in a note; “But it also confirms thinner market patience, and a new period of a stall in negotiations could end up taking DXY above the 99.50 mark even without any new military re-escalation.”” At the same time significant downside in the currency may be limited given hawkish FOMC minutes on Wednesday, strategists say
Looking at today’s calendar, we get Housing starts for April, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, and initial jobless claims through May 16 are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by provisional PMI data for May at 9.45 a.m.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini -0.3%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%,
Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%,
DAX +0.5%,
CAC 40 +0.3%
10-year Treasury yield +2 basis point at 4.60%
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1201.2,
euro little changed at $1.163
WTI crude -0.1% at $98.13/barrel
Top Overnight News
Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, two senior Iranian sources said, hardening Tehran’s stance on one of the main U.S. demands at peace talks. RTRS
Pakistan stepped up diplomatic efforts on Thursday to hasten U.S. and Iran peace talks, as Tehran said it was reviewing Washington’s latest responses and President Donald Trump suggested he could wait a few days for “the right answers” from Tehran but was also willing to resume attacks on the country. RTRS
Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response. Pakistan is working to bring closer the viewpoints between the US and Iran. Iran is in the process of responding to the text sent by the US and that “the sent text has reduced the gaps to some extent”, but requires guarantees: Al Arabiya and ISNA
The US will open a new consulate building in Greenland, renewing concerns over Washington’s designs for the island. Protests are planned. BBG
Beijing is holding up a proposed visit by the Pentagon’s top policy official as China pressures Donald Trump over a $14bn weapons package for Taiwan. FT
The Trump administration is awarding $2 billion in grants to nine quantum-computing companies in deals that include U.S. government equity stakes. WSJ
Anthropic’s revenue is set to more than double to $10.9 billion in the second quarter, an explosive rate of growth that will help it turn an operating profit for the first time. WSJ
The RBI is considering all available options to stabilize the rupee, including an interest-rate hike, more currency swaps and raising dollars from investors overseas, people familiar said. BBG
Euro-area business activity shrank at the quickest pace in two and a half years, adding to fears that the Iran war and surge in energy costs are dealing a severe blow to the economy. BBG
The Fed proposed a new type of limited payment account to give fintech firms greater access to the US payments system. BBG
Iran
Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response, Al Arabiya reported citing sources. Pakistan is working to bring closer the viewpoints between the US and Iran. ISNA further reported that Iran is in the process of responding to the text sent by the US and that “the sent text has reduced the gaps to some extent”, but requires guarantees.
“According to my sources in Tehran, Iran’s response hasn’t been handed to the Pakistani mediator. There’re ongoing deliberations, and serious efforts to reach a final draft,” according to Al Jazeera’s Hashem.
“Pakistan’s mediation efforts between US and Iran are at a crucial stage where efforts are underway to secure an agreement or a framework for comprehensive talks which can eventually lead to a ‘deal’,” according to journalist Mallick.
Pakistani source tells Al Jazeera the Army Chief is still in Pakistan and his visit to Iran depends on the outcomes of the interior minister’s visit, enriched uranium is the main sticking point in the US-Iranian negotiations.
Pakistan’s Army Chief is to travel to Tehran on Thursday for negotiations and as part of mediation efforts between the US and Iran, ISNA reported.
Pakistani political and media circles point to accelerated mediation efforts after Pakistani Interior Minister’s Tehran meetings, IRNA reported. The report adds that presenting a narrative that indicates that progress in negotiations between Tehran and Washington is likely.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Iran is pursuing talks “in good faith” but views US with “deep suspicion”, Press TV reported. Confirms multiple rounds of messages have been exchanged through Pakistani intermediaries based on the 14-point proposal.
Iranian official said they are ready to use new weapons if the US makes an additional act of aggression again, while he said they have produced and advanced weapons inside the country that have not yet been used on the battlefield and have not yet been tested. Furthermore, the spokesman stated that in terms of equipment and defensive capabilities, they are not experiencing any shortages that would prevent the defence of the country, and this time, they do not intend to act with restraint.
IRGC said forces are ready to respond to any enemy aggression and all armed forces are ready with fingers on the trigger, according to SNN and Tasnim.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk
APAC stocks mostly rallied as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall Street, with global risk sentiment underpinned following a slide in oil prices due to increased optimism regarding a resolution to the Middle East conflict, after President Trump stated that they are in the final stages of talks with Iran. Furthermore, it was also reported that the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran today to announce the achievement of a final draft agreement, while the US side gave Iran a text through a Pakistani mediator after having received Iran’s 14-point text a few days ago. ASX 200 climbed higher with the gains led by outperformance in the real estate, mining and materials industries, while the index also shrugged off the weak flash PMIs and disappointing jobs data. Nikkei 225 surged higher amid the decline in energy prices and heavy buying in tech stocks, with SoftBank shares up around 20% following the earnings beat from NVIDIA, while there was a slew of data from Japan which were ultimately mixed, but included stronger-than-expected trade figures. KOSPI outperformed amid tech strength with SK Hynix surging by a double-digit percentage, while Samsung Electronics was boosted by an eleventh-hour tentative wage agreement with the labour union to avert an 18-day mass walkout. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged despite the increased liquidity effort by the PBoC, with price action rangebound and Chinese markets constrained amid weakness in energy stocks and automakers.
Top Asian News
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan’s fiscal policy is proactive and not expansionary.
Japan’s draft extra budget is reportedly around JPY 3tln, while it was also reported that Japan plans to spend JPY 500bln in reserve funds on energy measures.
India is said to weigh options to boost the rupee, including a rate hike, with the RBI also considering options such as currency swaps and raising dollars from overseas investors.
South Korea’s NPS may hike domestic stock holding target by 5 percentage points amid rises in domestic stock market, Maeil reported.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are entirely but modestly in the green, ex. FTSE 100 (-0.1%). Signs of an end to the Iran war seem to be emerging, with President Trump saying the US is in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, while Al Arabiya reported that Tehran is studying the American text. The source report added that Pakistan is working to bring closer the viewpoints between the US and Iran. Elsewhere, EZ flash PMIs disappointed, with commentary continuing to highlight stagflation worries despite ECB Lagarde’s persistence in moving away from the language. European sectors point to a positive bias. Autos (+1.2%) and Retail (+0.6%) top the sector pile while Energy (-0.2%) and Banks (-0.2%) underperform.
Top European News
EU Commission downgrades 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 1.2%), 2026 inflation revised to 3.00% (prev. 1.9%).
UK Chancellor Reeves is to announce cuts to food tariffs and children’s bus fares on Thursday in a cost-of-living push to win back voters. It was separately reported that Reeves will not announce a proposed voluntary cap on supermarket prices for essential groceries following strong backlash from the sector, according to Financial Times. Furthermore, Politico reported that Reeves is to announce a cut to agrifood tariffs on some products and a rise in mileage rates.
FX
The Dollar index is unchanged on the day and returns to Thursday’s lows around 99.00 after chopping on geopolitics and soft EZ/French data. Action ultimately dictated by geopolitics, with reports recently sounding constructive and has outweighed the Dollar positive factors which incl. poor EZ PMI metrics and hawkish FOMC Minutes.
EUR saw decent weakness on dismal French data, which heightened the possibility of EZ-US differentials widening. French PMIs marked the steepest contraction since late 2020. Services and composite were expected to be broadly unchanged from priors, though both slipped significantly further into contraction territory. The Manufacturing picture was better, though the metric still fell into contraction. The EZ figure was also poor but provided some reprieve for the single currency. EZ Manufacturing was resilient, though still fell below expected and previous, while composite and services fell further into contraction. As the French series was released, EUR/USD saw a move c.24 pips lower to a 1.1594 trough, though pared some downside as German/EZ figures were not as bad as feared according to the indications from France.
JPY remains reluctant to deviate from the 159.00 mark despite hawkish remarks from BoJ’s Koeda. JPY fundamentals remain bearish amid reporting around the Supplementary Budget and terms of trade. Koeda’s remarks overnight, “BoJ needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate”, mark the second non-dissenting member to indicate willingness to tighten policy (Masu+Koeda). This shows that last meeting’s 6-3 vote split will be vulnerable in June’s meeting, with the aforementioned members’ remarks indicating a possible 5-4 vote split for a hike, where interest rate futures currently imply a 77% probability of such action.
Central Banks
BoJ Board Member Koeda said the BoJ needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate in response to developments in economic activity and prices, as well as financial conditions, while she thinks the BoJ needs to continue examining the extent to which underlying inflation is anchored. Koeda said given the situation in the Middle East, she sees some possibility that underlying inflation may exceed 2% looking ahead, and noted it is reasonable for BoJ to raise the policy interest rate at an appropriate pace to address high inflation, whilst also considering the trade-offs for the economy. Furthermore, she warned that if real interest rates continue to deviate markedly in a negative direction from the natural rate of interest, unintended distortions could arise in future resource allocation, as well as stated that the BoJ should proceed steadily with normalising its balance sheet in a predictable manner, while ensuring flexibility.
ECB’s Rehn said economy is moving towards the adverse scenario of projections; may need to raise rates to maintain credibility.
Norges Bank Expectations Survey (Q2): 12-month ahead CPI 3.3% (prev. 2.8%), 2026 real wages 1.1% (prev. 1.3%).
Fixed Income
USTs are off by a few ticks, but have been clambering off worst levels throughout the European session; currently towards the upper end of a 109-05 to 109-12 range. Wednesday saw sentiment lift amidst positive geopolitical newsflow, and this has continued into today’s session. Most recently, reports have suggested that Iran is in the process of responding to the text sent by the US, adding that it has “reduced the gaps to some extent”. This led to some pressure in the energy complex, in turn, lifting US paper.
Bunds trade firmer today and towards the upper end of a 124.71 to 125.12 range. Strength today has been facilitated by a) geopolitical optimism (see above), and b) a dire set of PMI metrics. In brief, the French figures were awful, with Manufacturing surprisingly slipping into contractionary territory and Composite/Services also deteriorating; the German metrics also indicated the downbeat Manufacturing environment, but were more or less in line with expectations. The EZ-wide figure concluded that activity in the region is softening across both the Manufacturing and Services; “The survey data indicate that the euro area economy looks set to contract by 0.2% in the second quarter”. The report concludes by suggesting that price gauges suggest inflation is running close to 4%, which, alongside slowing growth, “creates a deepening dilemma for policymakers”.
Gilts move higher alongside the pressure in the crude complex. The region had its own PMI metrics to digest. Manufacturing remained solid whilst Services surprisingly fell into contractionary territory. UK paper was choppy in reaction to the data, but ultimately little moved – perhaps as attention turns to Chancellor Reeves, who is due to speak at 11:30 BST. Reports suggest that she will announce targeted cuts to agrifood tariffs expected to save consumers more than GBP 150mln annually. She is also expected to announce free summer bus travel for children, and a GBP 400mln package for motorists and hauliers, including a postponed 5p fuel duty rise. Political analysts view her speech as an attempt to secure herself as the Labour Party’s long-term chancellor in the midst of recent political turmoil
Commodities
In geopolitics, US President Trump said Iran talks were in the “final stages” but warned the US could get “a little bit nasty” if no deal is reached, while stressing sanctions relief would only come after an agreement. Iran said dialogue was continuing around its 14-point proposal, but rejected surrender, ultimatums or deadlines. Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response.
WTI and Brent crude futures are moving lower following the aforementioned constructive geopolitical headlines. WTI Jul briefly topped USD 100/bbl before returning under the level, currently in a USD 97.29-100.11/bbl range. Brent Jul resides in a 103.68-106.80/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF is now softer by over 1%, with downticks also seen in light of the constructive US-Iran commentary.
Spot gold is contained to a USD 4,512-4,570/oz range, on a modestly softer footing intraday but off extremes as the yellow metal moves in lockstep with the USD, which is influenced by energy prices. Spot silver found intraday resistance at USD 77/bbl before printing a USD 74.67/oz low.
Base metals are lower despite the broader optimism from the US-Iran relatively flat DXY at the time of writing, whilst PMI data in Europe pointed to an overall bleak picture, with the data pointing to contractions in the EZ and the UK. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,477.65- 13,713.40/t range.
ADNOC said that while it can ramp up its oil production in a matter of weeks, it will take 4 months for oil flows through Hormuz to return to 80% of pre-war levels.
China raises gas and diesel prices by CNY 75 and CNY 70 per ton, respectively, from May 22nd.
UAE’s new pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly around 50% complete.
Goldman Sachs said global oil stockpiles fell at a record pace of 8.7mln bpd so far in May, while it added that physical markets continue to tighten with estimated oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remaining at a very low 5% of normal.
Geopolitics
Ukraine’s Drone Forces commander said Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s Syzran oil refinery (147k-170k capacity) in the Samara region of Russia.
US Defence Undersecretary Colby may visit China ahead of a possible trip by Pentagon chief Hegseth amid tension over Taiwan arms sales, SCMP reported.
US deployed the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean in a show of force as President Trump pressures Cuba, according to NYT.
US President Trump said on Wednesday he would speak with Taiwan’s President Lai in an unprecedented move for a US leader that could roil US relations with China, according to The Guardian.
Beijing is reportedly holding up a proposed visit by a Pentagon top policy official as China pressures US President Trump regarding a USD 14bln arms sale to Taiwan, according to FT.
Chinese President Xi may visit North Korea by as early as next week, according to Yonhap.
US Event Calendar
8:30 am: United States May 16 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210k, prior 211k
8:30 am: United States May 9 Continuing Claims, est. 1786k, prior 1782k
8:30 am: United States May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 17.8, prior 26.7
8:30 am: United States Apr Housing Starts, est. 1410k, prior 1502k
8:30 am: United States Apr P Building Permits, est. 1384k, prior 1363k
9:45 am: United States May P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.8, prior 54.5
9:45 am: United States May P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.2, prior 51
9:45 am: United States May P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 51.8, prior 51.7
Central Banks
11:20 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Chicago Radio Interview
12:20 pm: United States Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economy
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Yesterday’s positive market mood has continued into Asian hours this morning, with the Kospi (+8.08%) and Nikkei (+3.58%) surging via a tech rally even as Nvidia’s eagerly awaited earnings drew a mixed response last night. This follows yesterday’s +1.08% gain for the S&P 500 on increased investor optimism that a US-Iran deal might materialise, leading to sharp declines for Brent crude (-5.63%) and a reversal in Treasury yields (-8.1bps on 10yr).
Starting with Nvidia, the chipmaker reported 85% yoy sales growth to $81.6bn last quarter and projected revenue of around $91bn in the current quarter (vs. $87.4bn est.). Despite the impressive growth and a 75% gross margin, that moderate sales guidance beat drew a lukewarm response from investors. Nvidia’s shares slipped by about 1% in post-market trading after a +1.30% gain yesterday that took it to a +19.8% gain YTD.
Futures on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are flat this morning following Nvidia’s results, but this comes after markets steamed ahead yesterday as the anticipation of good news on Iran brought oil prices and yields lower. The S&P 500 (+1.08%) rose for the first time in four sessions, with chipmakers and technology companies leading the way ahead of Nvidia’s results. The Philly Stock Exchange Index (+4.49%) rebounded strongly, with the Nasdaq (+1.54%) and the Magnificent-7 (+1.34%) also posting sizeable gains. European indices also rebounded, with the Stoxx 600 (+1.46%), CAC 40 (+1.70%), FTSE 100 (+0.99%) and DAX (+1.38%) all posting strong gains.
That positivity has carried over into Asian markets this morning. Japan’s Nikkei is up +3.58%, with Softbank surging +19.85% boosted by its roughly 13% stake in OpenAI as the WSJ reported that OpenAI is preparing to file an IPO in the coming days or weeks. Adrian Cox has written a quick note here on this overnight, putting the fundraising in some perspective. It would be double the previous largest IPO in history. Elsewhere, Korea’s KOSPI is soaring +8.08% with the likes of LG Electronics up +25.97% following Nvidia CEO Huang’s earnings call comments about the upside for physical AI and robotics. 8 stocks in the index are up by more than 15% as I type. Samsung (+5.35%) is also advancing strongly after reaching a tentative deal with its labour union to avoid a strike. The ASX is +1.63% higher but Chinese risk is broadly flat.
Before all that, it was rising optimism that the US and Iran might reach a deal that boosted markets yesterday. President Trump said that the US was in the “final stages” for a possible draft deal to end the conflict. Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that Iran is reviewing the new draft US sent to Tehran in response to its 14-point proposal, while Axios reported that Trump and Israel’s Netanyahu had a tense call on Tuesday over the new peace proposal drafted by Qatar and Pakistan. That said, Trump did also threaten escalation, saying “We’ll either have a deal or we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty”. But overall investors jumped on potential, with Brent crude falling -5.63% to $105.02/bbl, whilst the 6-month ahead future fell -3.96% to $88.24/bbl. Brent is back up a modest +0.89% overnight. The decline in oil helped Treasury yields retreat from Tuesday’s highs. The 10yr yield fell -8.1bps to 4.59%, though that still leaves it +23bps above where it was on May 8. The bond rally was led by breakevens, especially at the front-end, with the 1yr US inflation swap falling -13.9bps to 3.24%. Long-dated real yields also declined after the sharp repricing over the past week, with 30yr nominal (-5.8bps) and real (-5.7bps) yields retreating from post-GFC highs.
While the rates rally dominated the day, the minutes of this month’s FOMC meeting showed officials growing more open to the potential need to raise rates. In particular, a “majority of participants highlighted… that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent”, with “many” officials calling for the Fed to drop its easing bias as a result. As a reminder, three of the voting FOMC members had dissented in favour of dropping the bias.
European government bonds also saw significant relief, with yields on 10yr bunds down -9.6bps to 3.09%, while OATs (-11.2bps) and BTPs (-13.6bps) saw double digit declines amid the decline in oil prices. Those moves came as the final Euro Area April CPI was in-line with the flash reading at +3.0% y/y.
Here in the UK gilts outperformed after a big miss on April headline inflation (2.8% y/y vs 3.0% y/y expected). This was largely driven by weaker services inflation, which rose 3.2% y/y (vs 3.5% expected and down from 4.5% in March), though core CPI (2.5% y/y vs 2.6%) saw a more moderate downside miss. So combined with the global rally, that helped 10yr gilt yields to fall by -14.1bps to 4.99%, whilst the number of hikes priced in for the BoE in 2026 eased from 61bps to 47bps.
In overnight data, we’ve seen the first of the May flash PMI releases. The composite PMI declined in both Australia (from 50.4 to 47.8) and in Japan (from 52.2 to 51.1). Both manufacturing and services PMIs saw a deterioration, but it is services that led the decline, falling to 47.7 in Australia and a 14-month low of 50.0 in Japan. Meanwhile, Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 4.3% to 4.5% in April, marking its highest level since November 2021. The amount of further RBA hikes priced by year-end has declined from 34bps to 25bps following the data. In contrast, Japan trade figures were unexpectedly resilient in April, with +14.8% year-on-year export growth (vs. +9.2% expected) driving the economy to a third consecutive monthly trade surplus at ¥302bn, significantly outperforming expectations for a marginal deficit.
Flash PMIs will remain in focus later today, with the Eurozone, Germany, France, UK and US releases due. Other US data today includes weekly initial jobless claims (our economists expect these to edge slightly lower to 209k from 211k), the May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, as well as April housing starts and building permits. In the Eurozone, we’ll also have May consumer confidence and the March current account data. Central bank speakers today include the ECB’s Villeroy and BoE’s Taylor. Notable earnings include Walmart and Generali.
1b European opening report
Indices broadly lower as energy rebounds, NVIDIA a touch firmer post-earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 06:34 AM
Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response, Al Arabiya reported citing sources.
“Pakistan’s mediation efforts between US and Iran are at a crucial stage where efforts are underway to secure an agreement or a framework for comprehensive talks which can eventually lead to a ‘deal’,”** according to journalist Mallick.
European bourses are broadly higher despite disappointing PMIs; US equity futures are flat after NVDA sales guidance disappointed.
DXY weighs hawkish FOMC and geopolitics; AUD lags post-jobs data.
USTs are a little lower whilst Bunds digest Flash PMIs, which fuel stagflation woes.
Crude wanes off highs amid further reports of diplomatic effects; Brent Jul -0.7%.
Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P PMIs Flash (May), Initial Jobless Claims (May/16), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (May), Banxico Minutes (May). Speakers include BoE’s Bailey & Taylor, ECB’s Elderson, Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee. Earnings from Walmart & Deere.
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IRAN CONFLICT
Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response, Al Arabiya reported citing sources. Pakistan is working to bring closer the viewpoints between the US and Iran. ISNA further reported that Iran is in the process of responding to the text sent by the US and that “the sent text has reduced the gaps to some extent”, but requires guarantees.
“According to my sources in Tehran, Iran’s response hasn’t been handed to the Pakistani mediator. There’re ongoing deliberations, and serious efforts to reach a final draft,” according to Al Jazeera’s Hashem.
“Pakistan’s mediation efforts between US and Iran are at a crucial stage where efforts are underway to secure an agreement or a framework for comprehensive talks which can eventually lead to a ‘deal’,” according to journalist Mallick.
Pakistani source tells Al Jazeera the Army Chief is still in Pakistan and his visit to Iran depends on the outcomes of the interior minister’s visit, enriched uranium is the main sticking point in the US-Iranian negotiations.
Pakistan’s Army Chief is to travel to Tehran on Thursday for negotiations and as part of mediation efforts between the US and Iran, ISNA reported.
Pakistani political and media circles point to accelerated mediation efforts after Pakistani Interior Minister’s Tehran meetings, IRNA reported. The report adds that presenting a narrative that indicates that progress in negotiations between Tehran and Washington is likely.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Iran is pursuing talks “in good faith” but views US with “deep suspicion”, Press TV reported. Confirms multiple rounds of messages have been exchanged through Pakistani intermediaries based on the 14-point proposal.
Iranian official said they are ready to use new weapons if the US makes an additional act of aggression again, while he said they have produced and advanced weapons inside the country that have not yet been used on the battlefield and have not yet been tested. Furthermore, the spokesman stated that in terms of equipment and defensive capabilities, they are not experiencing any shortages that would prevent the defence of the country, and this time, they do not intend to act with restraint.
IRGC said forces are ready to respond to any enemy aggression and all armed forces are ready with fingers on the trigger, according to SNN and Tasnim.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are entirely but modestly in the green, ex. FTSE 100 (-0.1%). Signs of an end to the Iran war seem to be emerging, with President Trump saying the US is in the final stages of negotiations with Iran, while Al Arabiya reported that Tehran is studying the American text. The source report added that Pakistan is working to bring closer the viewpoints between the US and Iran. Elsewhere, EZ flash PMIs disappointed, with commentary continuing to highlight stagflation worries despite ECB Lagarde’s persistence in moving away from the language.
European sectors point to a positive bias. Autos (+1.2%) and Retail (+0.6%) top the sector pile while Energy (-0.2%) and Banks (-0.2%) underperform.
US equity futures trade around the unchanged mark after hawkish FOMC minutes failed to spur a reaction, while NVIDIA (-0.1% pre-market) claws back after-hours losses. NVIDIA shares edged lower in extended trading, despite beating expectations and giving upbeat guidance. Some suggested the tech giant’s sales guidance was disappointing, guiding Q2 sales around USD 91bln, beating estimates of USD 87bln but missing Bloomberg’s compiled upper end of USD 96bln.
The Dollar index is unchanged on the day and returns to Thursday’s lows around 99.00 after chopping on geopolitics and soft EZ/French data. Action ultimately dictated by geopolitics, with reports recently sounding constructive and has outweighed the Dollar positive factors which incl. poor EZ PMI metrics and hawkish FOMC Minutes.
EUR saw decent weakness on dismal French data, which heightened the possibility of EZ-US differentials widening. French PMIs marked the steepest contraction since late 2020. Services and composite were expected to be broadly unchanged from priors, though both slipped significantly further into contraction territory. The Manufacturing picture was better, though the metric still fell into contraction. The EZ figure was also poor but provided some reprieve for the single currency. EZ Manufacturing was resilient, though still fell below expected and previous, while composite and services fell further into contraction. As the French series was released, EUR/USD saw a move c.24 pips lower to a 1.1594 trough, though pared some downside as German/EZ figures were not as bad as feared according to the indications from France.
JPY remains reluctant to deviate from the 159.00 mark despite hawkish remarks from BoJ’s Koeda. JPY fundamentals remain bearish amid reporting around the Supplementary Budget and terms of trade. Koeda’s remarks overnight, “BoJ needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate”, mark the second non-dissenting member to indicate willingness to tighten policy (Masu+Koeda). This shows that last meeting’s 6-3 vote split will be vulnerable in June’s meeting, with the aforementioned members’ remarks indicating a possible 5-4 vote split for a hike, where interest rate futures currently imply a 77% probability of such action.
FIXED INCOME
USTs are off by a few ticks, but have been clambering off worst levels throughout the European session; currently towards the upper end of a 109-05 to 109-12 range. Wednesday saw sentiment lift amidst positive geopolitical newsflow, and this has continued into today’s session. Most recently, reports have suggested that Iran is in the process of responding to the text sent by the US, adding that it has “reduced the gaps to some extent”. This led to some pressure in the energy complex, in turn, lifting US paper.
Bunds trade firmer today and towards the upper end of a 124.71 to 125.12 range. Strength today has been facilitated by a) geopolitical optimism (see above), and b) a dire set of PMI metrics. In brief, the French figures were awful, with Manufacturing surprisingly slipping into contractionary territory and Composite/Services also deteriorating; the German metrics also indicated the downbeat Manufacturing environment, but were more or less in line with expectations. The EZ-wide figure concluded that activity in the region is softening across both the Manufacturing and Services; “The survey data indicate that the euro area economy looks set to contract by 0.2% in the second quarter”. The report concludes by suggesting that price gauges suggest inflation is running close to 4%, which, alongside slowing growth, “creates a deepening dilemma for policymakers”.
Gilts move higher alongside the pressure in the crude complex. The region had its own PMI metrics to digest. Manufacturing remained solid whilst Services surprisingly fell into contractionary territory. UK paper was choppy in reaction to the data, but ultimately little moved – perhaps as attention turns to Chancellor Reeves, who is due to speak at 11:30 BST. Reports suggest that she will announce targeted cuts to agrifood tariffs expected to save consumers more than GBP 150mln annually. She is also expected to announce free summer bus travel for children, and a GBP 400mln package for motorists and hauliers, including a postponed 5p fuel duty rise. Political analysts view her speech as an attempt to secure herself as the Labour Party’s long-term chancellor in the midst of recent political turmoil.
UK sells GBP 4bln 4.875% 2036 Treasury Gilt: b/c 3.45x, average yield 5.026%, tail 0.3bps.
France sells EUR 14bln vs exp. EUR 12-14bln 2.40% 2029, 2.75% 2030, 3.25% 2032 and 3.50% 2033 OAT.
Spain sells EUR 6.055bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 2.60% 2031, 3.00% 2033 and 1.00% 2050 Bono.
COMMODITIES
In geopolitics, US President Trump said Iran talks were in the “final stages” but warned the US could get “a little bit nasty” if no deal is reached, while stressing sanctions relief would only come after an agreement. Iran said dialogue was continuing around its 14-point proposal, but rejected surrender, ultimatums or deadlines. Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response.
WTI and Brent crude futures are moving lower following the aforementioned constructive geopolitical headlines. WTI Jul briefly topped USD 100/bbl before returning under the level, currently in a USD 97.29-100.11/bbl range. Brent Jul resides in a 103.68-106.80/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF is now softer by over 1%, with downticks also seen in light of the constructive US-Iran commentary.
Spot gold is contained to a USD 4,512-4,570/oz range, on a modestly softer footing intraday but off extremes as the yellow metal moves in lockstep with the USD, which is influenced by energy prices. Spot silver found intraday resistance at USD 77/bbl before printing a USD 74.67/oz low.
Base metals are lower despite the broader optimism from the US-Iran relatively flat DXY at the time of writing, whilst PMI data in Europe pointed to an overall bleak picture, with the data pointing to contractions in the EZ and the UK. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,477.65- 13,713.40/t range.
ADNOC said that while it can ramp up its oil production in a matter of weeks, it will take 4 months for oil flows through Hormuz to return to 80% of pre-war levels.
China raises gas and diesel prices by CNY 75 and CNY 70 per ton, respectively, from May 22nd.
UAE’s new pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly around 50% complete.
Goldman Sachs said global oil stockpiles fell at a record pace of 8.7mln bpd so far in May, while it added that physical markets continue to tighten with estimated oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remaining at a very low 5% of normal.
TRADE/TARIFFS
China’s MOFCOM said the EU is using overcapacity as an excuse to concoct new trade tools against China.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
EU Commission downgrades 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 1.2%), 2026 inflation revised to 3.00% (prev. 1.9%).
UK Chancellor Reeves is to announce cuts to food tariffs and children’s bus fares on Thursday in a cost-of-living push to win back voters. It was separately reported that Reeves will not announce a proposed voluntary cap on supermarket prices for essential groceries following strong backlash from the sector, according to Financial Times. Furthermore, Politico reported that Reeves is to announce a cut to agrifood tariffs on some products and a rise in mileage rates.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
UK S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May) 48.5 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.6, Low. 50.8, High. 52.5). “The May PMI data indicate that the economy contracted at a 0.2% quarterly rate, representing a marked contrast to the robust growth seen earlier in the year,” adding that things could well get worse in the coming months.
UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May) 47.9 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 52.7, Low. 50.3, High. 53).
UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 53.7 vs. Exp. 53 (Prev. 53.7, Low. 50.5, High. 54).
EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May) 47.5 vs. Exp. 48.8 (Prev. 48.8, Low. 47.5, High. 49.5). “The rise in the survey’s price gauges already hints at inflation running close to 4% in the coming months which, combined with the growing signs of the region slipping into an economic downturn, creates a deepening dilemma for policymakers.”
EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May) 46.4 vs. Exp. 47.7 (Prev. 47.6, Low. 45.9, High. 49).
EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 51.4 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 52.2, Low. 50.2, High. 53).
French S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May) 43.5 vs. Exp. 47.7 (Prev. 47.6, Low. 46.1, High. 48.5). “The inflationary impact of the oil-price shock continues to proliferate, with price indices in both manufacturing and services moving higher once again.”
French S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May) 42.9 vs. Exp. 46.6 (Prev. 46.5, Low. 44.5, High. 47.3).
French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 48.9 vs. Exp. 52.2 (Prev. 52.8, Low. 51.3, High. 53.2).
German S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May) 48.6 vs. Exp. 48.4 (Prev. 48.4, Low. 47.4, High. 51.4). “…slower rises in both manufacturing and services output prices point to businesses shouldering a greater proportion of the burden. This suggests some containment of inflationary pressures, but it also hints at an increased squeeze on company margins which has consequences of its own…”
German S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May) 47.8 vs. Exp. 47 (Prev. 46.9, Low. 44.9, High. 50.2).
German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 49.9 vs. Exp. 51 (Prev. 51.4, Low. 49.6, High. 52.5).
CENTRAL BANKS
BoJ Board Member Koeda said the BoJ needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate in response to developments in economic activity and prices, as well as financial conditions, while she thinks the BoJ needs to continue examining the extent to which underlying inflation is anchored. Koeda said given the situation in the Middle East, she sees some possibility that underlying inflation may exceed 2% looking ahead, and noted it is reasonable for BoJ to raise the policy interest rate at an appropriate pace to address high inflation, whilst also considering the trade-offs for the economy. Furthermore, she warned that if real interest rates continue to deviate markedly in a negative direction from the natural rate of interest, unintended distortions could arise in future resource allocation, as well as stated that the BoJ should proceed steadily with normalising its balance sheet in a predictable manner, while ensuring flexibility.
ECB’s Rehn said economy is moving towards the adverse scenario of projections; may need to raise rates to maintain credibility.
Norges Bank Expectations Survey (Q2): 12-month ahead CPI 3.3% (prev. 2.8%), 2026 real wages 1.1% (prev. 1.3%).
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukraine’s Drone Forces commander said Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s Syzran oil refinery (147k-170k capacity) in the Samara region of Russia.
OTHER
US Defence Undersecretary Colby may visit China ahead of a possible trip by Pentagon chief Hegseth amid tension over Taiwan arms sales, SCMP reported.
US deployed the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean in a show of force as President Trump pressures Cuba, according to NYT.
US President Trump said on Wednesday he would speak with Taiwan’s President Lai in an unprecedented move for a US leader that could roil US relations with China, according to The Guardian.
Beijing is reportedly holding up a proposed visit by a Pentagon top policy official as China pressures US President Trump regarding a USD 14bln arms sale to Taiwan, according to FT.
Chinese President Xi may visit North Korea by as early as next week, according to Yonhap.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin continued to extend higher, nearing USD 78k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks mostly rallied as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall Street, with global risk sentiment underpinned following a slide in oil prices due to increased optimism regarding a resolution to the Middle East conflict, after President Trump stated that they are in the final stages of talks with Iran. Furthermore, it was also reported that the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran today to announce the achievement of a final draft agreement, while the US side gave Iran a text through a Pakistani mediator after having received Iran’s 14-point text a few days ago.
ASX 200 climbed higher with the gains led by outperformance in the real estate, mining and materials industries, while the index also shrugged off the weak flash PMIs and disappointing jobs data.
Nikkei 225 surged higher amid the decline in energy prices and heavy buying in tech stocks, with SoftBank shares up around 20% following the earnings beat from NVIDIA, while there was a slew of data from Japan which were ultimately mixed, but included stronger-than-expected trade figures.
KOSPI outperformed amid tech strength with SK Hynix surging by a double-digit percentage, while Samsung Electronics was boosted by an eleventh-hour tentative wage agreement with the labour union to avert an 18-day mass walkout.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged despite the increased liquidity effort by the PBoC, with price action rangebound and Chinese markets constrained amid weakness in energy stocks and automakers.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan’s fiscal policy is proactive and not expansionary.
Japan’s draft extra budget is reportedly around JPY 3tln, while it was also reported that Japan plans to spend JPY 500bln in reserve funds on energy measures.
India is said to weigh options to boost the rupee, including a rate hike, with the RBI also considering options such as currency swaps and raising dollars from overseas investors.
South Korea’s NPS may hike domestic stock holding target by 5 percentage points amid rises in domestic stock market, Maeil reported.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May) 51.10 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 52.2).
Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 54.5 vs. Exp. 54.5 (Prev. 55.1).
Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May) 50.0 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 51.0).
Japanese Balance of Trade (Apr) 301.9B vs. Exp. -29.7B (Prev. 667B).
Japanese Exports YY (Apr) 14.8% vs. Exp. 9.3% (Prev. 11.7%, Low. 7.0%, High. 12.5%).
Japanese Imports YY (Apr) 9.7% vs. Exp. 8.3% (Prev. 10.9%, Low. 5.1%, High. 10.1%).
Australian Employment Change (Apr) -18.6K vs. Exp. 17.5K (Prev. 17.9K, Low. 10K, High. 25K).
Australian Unemployment Rate (Apr) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%, Low. 4.2%, High. 4.4%).
Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May) 47.80 vs. Exp. 50 (Prev. 50.40).
Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 51.3).
Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May) 47.7 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 50.7).
New Zealand Balance of Trade (Apr) 1920B vs. Exp. 0.842B (Prev. 0.698B).
1 c Asian opening report
Europe primed for a lower open with NVIDIA lower post-earnings and Crude rebounding modestly after hefty losses – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 02:40 AM
US President Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the “final stages” and warned that the US military could have to get “a little bit nasty” if no agreement is reached, according to the New York Post.
There had reportedly been progress in attempts to formulate a memorandum of understanding and guiding principles between the US and Iran, although significant gaps remained, according to Amichai Stein.
FOMC minutes showed many policymakers would have preferred to remove the easing bias from the policy statement, while a majority said further tightening would likely become appropriate if inflation remained persistently above target.
NVIDIA shares edged lower (-1.3%) in extended trading, despite beating expectations and giving upbeat guidance, amid lofty investor expectations.
APAC stocks mostly rallied as the region took impetus from the gains in the US; European equity futures indicate a flat/slightly positive cash market open.
Looking ahead, highlights include Global S&P PMIs Flash (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (May/16), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (May), and Banxico Minutes (May). Speakers include BoE’s Bailey & Taylor, ECB’s Elderson, Fed’s Barkin. Supply from Spain, France & UK, Earnings from Walmart & Deere.
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IRAN CONFLICT
US President Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the “final stages” and warned that the US military could have to get “a little bit nasty” if no agreement is reached, according to the New York Post. Trump said they will either have a deal or are going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won’t happen, while negotiations reportedly remain stalled over Iran’s nuclear programme and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Trump said the US would not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon and warned they may have to “hit Iran harder, maybe not.” Trump added that Iran “wants to make a deal so badly,” while stating the US had strong support and would not allow Iran to “blow up Israel and the Middle East.” Trump also warned that more fighting could follow unless Tehran “gets smart.”
US President Trump said if they don’t get the right answers regarding Iran, they will move quickly and need complete 100% good answers from Iran, while he added that they’re dealing with reasonable people. Trump said it is great if he can save war by waiting a couple of days and stated that they will not do any oil sanctions relief for Iran until an agreement is signed.
Sources close to the negotiating team said that after sending Iran’s 14-point text three days ago, Washington reportedly transmitted revised text through the Pakistani mediator, while Iran was reviewing the proposal and had not yet responded. Furthermore, the Pakistani mediator in Tehran was attempting to bring the texts closer together.
New Iran peace proposal reportedly triggered a tense call between US President Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu on Tuesday, according to Axios. Trump informed Netanyahu that mediators were working on a “letter of intent” that both the US and Iran would sign to formally end the war and initiate a 30-day negotiation period covering issues including Iran’s nuclear programme and Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, two Israeli sources reportedly said the two leaders disagreed on the path forward, while one US source said Netanyahu’s “hair was on fire” following the discussion. In relevant news, a spokeswoman for the Israeli Embassy in Washington denied that the ambassador told US lawmakers that Netanyahu was concerned after the conversation with Trump.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said he urged Trump to maintain military pressure on Iran.
Israeli official cited by the Israeli Broadcasting Authority stated that US President Trump remained inclined to support a military strike against Iran while still leaving a narrow window open for negotiations, while Israel was reportedly taking several preparatory measures for the possibility of renewed fighting.
There had reportedly been progress in attempts to formulate a memorandum of understanding and guiding principles between the US and Iran, although significant gaps remained, according to Amichai Stein, while Israeli assessments suggested Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei would ultimately reject any compromise.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran has consistently honoured its commitments and explored every avenue to avert war, while he added that all paths remain open from their side. He also stated that forcing Iran to surrender through coercion is nothing but an illusion, and that mutual respect in diplomacy is far wiser, safer and more sustainable than war.
Iranian President Pezeshkian discussed the diplomatic track with Washington during talks with Pakistan’s Interior Minister and stressed the importance of continuing dialogue, while a Pakistani official reportedly conveyed messages from Islamabad supporting continued negotiations and understanding.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran had always protected safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and was prepared to develop protocols for safe shipping traffic in cooperation with other coastal states. Plans were also announced for Araghchi to potentially attend the special UN Security Council meeting hosted by China in New York, although his attendance remained subject to visa issuance and diplomatic priorities.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said exchanges of messages between Tehran and Washington were continuing on the basis of Iran’s 14-point proposal, while Pakistan’s Interior Minister was facilitating communications. Tehran added that it approached negotiations with both “suspicion and good intentions” and dismissed discussion of ultimatums or deadlines regarding Iran as “ridiculous.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed Iran received the US views and is studying them.
Iranian official said they are ready to use new weapons if the US makes an additional act of aggression again, while he said they have produced and advanced weapons inside the country that have not yet been used on the battlefield and have not yet been tested. Furthermore, the spokesman stated that in terms of equipment and defensive capabilities, they are not experiencing any shortages that would prevent the defence of the country, and this time, they do not intend to act with restraint.
IRGC said forces are ready to respond to any enemy aggression and all armed forces are ready with fingers on the trigger, according to SNN and Tasnim.
Hezbollah said it targeted Israeli forces and artillery in Bint Jbeil, southern Lebanon.
Deputy of the IRGC Navy said the Iranian “armed forces are ready to respond to any act of aggression by the enemy”, and warned that the “IRGC Navy will send the US to the bottom of the sea”, IRNA reported.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks closed higher as markets grew increasingly optimistic that the Middle East conflict may be approaching its final stages after President Trump said talks with Iran are in their final stages, while Al Hadath reported that the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran on Thursday to announce a final draft agreement, with the next round of negotiations expected to take place in Islamabad after the Hajj season (May 25th–30th). Oil prices extended losses following the headlines, with WTI and Brent both falling by around USD 6/bbl, while the decline in crude supported Treasuries and weighed on the Dollar against major peers.
As such, Energy was the worst-performing sector amid the sharp downside in oil, while Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Materials outperformed, with airlines among the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 as lower fuel costs boosted sentiment (JETS +6.6%). Semiconductor (SMH +3.8%, SOXX +4.7%) and memory names (DRAM +3.5%) also rallied ahead of NVIDIA earnings, with many sell-side firms expecting a beat-and-raise quarter. Elsewhere, the FOMC Minutes leaned hawkish, with the majority viewing hikes as likely warranted should inflation remain persistent, although markets largely looked through the release.
SPX +1.08% at 7,433, NDX +1.66% at 29,298, DJI +1.31% at 50,014, RUT +2.56% at 2,817.
FOMC minutes showed many policymakers would have preferred to remove the easing bias from the policy statement, while a majority said further tightening would likely become appropriate if inflation remained persistently above target. Some FOMC participants warned that elevated energy prices combined with tariffs could embed broader inflationary pressures and risk de-anchoring inflation expectations, thereby creating a sharper trade-off between employment and inflation goals. Some participants also noted recent price increases in the information technology sector had contributed to higher inflation, although several suggested software price increases may not be reliable indicators of broader future inflation. Most participants said longer-term inflation expectations remained stable, while policymakers generally expected high energy prices to continue exerting upward pressure on headline inflation in the near term. Participants also broadly expected tariff effects on core goods inflation to diminish during the course of the year.
TARIFFS/TRADE
USTR said the US welcomed progress made by the EU toward implementing the Turnberry Agreement, which it said could deliver historic market access for American exporters. Washington added it would continue reviewing certain restrictive amendments within current EU legislation.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
White House briefed AI companies on plan to review models before their release.
APAC stocks mostly rallied as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall Street, with global risk sentiment underpinned following a slide in oil prices due to increased optimism regarding a resolution to the Middle East conflict, after President Trump stated that they are in the final stages of talks with Iran. Furthermore, it was also reported that the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran today to announce the achievement of a final draft agreement, while the US side gave Iran a text through a Pakistani mediator after having received Iran’s 14-point text a few days ago.
ASX 200 climbed higher with the gains led by outperformance in the real estate, mining and materials industries, while the index also shrugged off the weak flash PMIs and disappointing jobs data.
Nikkei 225 surged higher amid the decline in energy prices and heavy buying in tech stocks, with SoftBank shares up around 20% following the earnings beat from NVIDIA, while there was a slew of data from Japan which were ultimately mixed, but included stronger-than-expected trade figures.
KOSPI outperformed amid tech strength with SK Hynix surging by a double-digit percentage, while Samsung Electronics was boosted by an eleventh-hour tentative wage agreement with the labour union to avert an 18-day mass walkout.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged despite the increased liquidity effort by the PBoC, with price action rangebound and Chinese markets constrained amid weakness in energy stocks and automakers.
US equity futures briefly fell after-hours as NVIDIA shares weakened post-earnings despite beating on the top and bottom lines, although the downside in futures was pared as Asia-Pac mostly rallied.
European equity futures indicate a flat/slightly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.1% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY traded rangebound after broadly weakening against G10 peers yesterday following a drop in oil prices after US President Trump stated that the US is in the final stages of talks with Iran, and with reports that the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran today to announce the final draft of the agreement text. Elsewhere, the FOMC Minutes had a hawkish element, but saw a fleeting impact on the USD, in which the two main takeaways were that many policymakers preferred to remove the easing bias from the policy statement, and the majority of participants saw a hike likely warranted if inflation persists.
EUR/USD was steady and held on to recent gains after benefitting from the weaker dollar amid the encouraging geopolitical headlines, while there was also a prior source report that the case for an ECB June rate hike was “nearly sealed” as the inflation outlook moved towards a more adverse scenario.
GBP/USD faded some of its recent advances, but retained the 1.3400 status with the pullback limited amid the constructive mood and after lower oil prices offset the recent softer-than-expected UK CPI data.
USD/JPY traded sideways near the 159.00 focal point, with the pair unreactive to a slew of data releases from Japan and hawkish rhetoric from BoJ’s Koeda, who called for the BoJ to continue rate hikes.
Antipodeans retreated with AUD pressured following disappointing jobs data, which showed a surprise contraction in headline Employment Change and an uptick in the Unemployment Rate, while NAB later announced that it pushed back its next RBA rate hike forecast to August from June.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8349 vs exp. 6.7955 (prev. 6.8397)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures took a breather after climbing yesterday as the slide in oil prices dragged yields lower and eased some of the inflationary concerns. Furthermore, there was little sustained reaction to the hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes, which revealed that “many” policymakers would have preferred to remove the easing bias from the statement, while the latest 20-year bond auction was broadly average.
Bund futures kept afloat and tested the 125.00 level to the upside after the recent slump in oil prices.
10yr JGB futures were marginally higher after the gains in global peers, but well off today’s best levels amid a surge in stocks and stronger-than-expected trade data, while there were also hawkish comments from BoJ’s Koeda, who stated that the BoJ needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate in response to developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures partially nursed some losses after slumping around 5% yesterday as pressure was seen amid hopes for a nearing resolution to the Iran conflict, with Al Hadath reporting that the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran today to announce the achievement of the final draft of an agreement text, and that the next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after the Hajj season. There were also comments from President Trump that the US is in the final stages of talks with Iran, while a source close to the negotiating team stated that after sending Iran’s 14-point text three days ago, the US side gave Iran a text through a Pakistani mediator, which Iran is still reviewing. The geopolitical optimism dragged WTI crude futures back below the USD 100/bbl level, which has since turned into a resistance level, capping the recovery effort.
UAE’s new pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly around 50% complete.
Goldman Sachs said global oil stockpiles fell at a record pace of 8.7mln bpd so far in May, while it added that physical markets continue to tighten with estimated oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remaining at a very low 5% of normal.
Spot gold was indecisive after recently extending on gains above the USD 4,500/oz level, as the recent decline in oil prices and yields offset inflationary pressures.
Copper futures slightly eased back from this week’s peak, but held on to most of the prior day’s spoils amid the heightened risk appetite and hopes for a US-Iran deal.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin gradually gained to test the USD 78,000 level to the upside.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoJ Board Member Koeda said the BoJ needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate in response to developments in economic activity and prices, as well as financial conditions, while she thinks the BoJ needs to continue examining the extent to which underlying inflation is anchored. Koeda said given the situation in the Middle East, she sees some possibility that underlying inflation may exceed 2% looking ahead, and noted it is reasonable for BoJ to raise the policy interest rate at an appropriate pace to address high inflation, whilst also considering the trade-offs for the economy. Furthermore, she warned that if real interest rates continue to deviate markedly in a negative direction from the natural rate of interest, unintended distortions could arise in future resource allocation, as well as stated that the BoJ should proceed steadily with normalising its balance sheet in a predictable manner, while ensuring flexibility.
Japan’s draft extra budget is reportedly around JPY 3tln, while it was also reported that Japan plans to spend JPY 500bln in reserve funds on energy measures.
India is said to weigh options to boost the rupee, including a rate hike, with the RBI also considering options such as currency swaps and raising dollars from overseas investors.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Balance of Trade (Apr) 301.9B vs. Exp. -29.7B (Prev. 667B)
Japanese Exports YY (Apr) 14.8% vs. Exp. 9.3% (Prev. 11.7%, Low. 7.0%, High. 12.5%)
Japanese Imports YY (Apr) 9.7% vs. Exp. 8.3% (Prev. 10.9%, Low. 5.1%, High. 10.1%)
Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Mar) -9.4% vs. Exp. -8.1% (Prev. 13.6%, Low. -20%, High. 14%)
Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Mar) 5.9% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 24.7%, Low. -9.8%, High. 28.6%)
Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 54.5 vs. Exp. 54.5 (Prev. 55.1)
Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May) 50.0 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 51.0)
Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May) 51.10 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 52.2)
Australian Employment Change (Apr) -18.6K vs. Exp. 17.5K (Prev. 17.9K, Low. 10K, High. 25K)
Australian Full Time Employment Chg (Apr) -10.7K (Prev. 52.5K)
Australian Unemployment Rate (Apr) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%, Low. 4.2%, High. 4.4%)
Australian Participation Rate (Apr) 66.7% vs. Exp. 66.8% (Prev. 66.8%)
Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 51.3)
Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May) 47.7 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 50.7)
Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May) 47.80 vs. Exp. 50 (Prev. 50.40)
GEOPOLITICS
OTHER
US President Trump said ‘big news’ on Cuba regarding the Castro incident and that they have Cuba on their mind, while he said they will see what’s next for Cuba and that it’s falling. Trump also said the US would not tolerate a “rogue state with hostile foreign military, intelligence and terror operations” located just 90 miles from the US.
US deployed the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean in a show of force as President Trump pressures Cuba, according to NYT.
US President Trump is reportedly planning to limit US military resources for NATO allies in Europe during crises, with the Pentagon planning to announce an intention to lessen its commitment at a Friday meeting of defence policy chiefs in Brussels, according to NYP citing sources.
US President Trump said on Wednesday he would speak with Taiwan’s President Lai in an unprecedented move for a US leader that could roil US relations with China, according to The Guardian.
Beijing is reportedly holding up a proposed visit by a Pentagon top policy official as China pressures US President Trump regarding a USD 14bln arms sale to Taiwan, according to FT.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK Chancellor Reeves is to announce cuts to food tariffs and children’s bus fares on Thursday in a cost-of-living push to win back voters. It was separately reported that Reeves will not announce a proposed voluntary cap on supermarket prices for essential groceries following strong backlash from the sector, according to Financial Times.
Wes Streeting is likely to abandon his bid for the Labour leadership and fall in behind Andy Burnham if the Greater Manchester mayor wins the Makerfield by-election, according to The Times, citing senior allies.
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
JAPAN
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/SAMSUNG
KOSPI, Samsung Soar After 11th-Hour Union Deal Averts Chip Strike; Workers Eye $340k Bonuses
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 06:55 AM
South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI jumped overnight after Samsung Electronics reached a tentative wage-and-bonus agreement with its main labor union, neutralizing the immediate risk of a paralyzing strike at the world’s largest memory-chip producer.
The wage-and-bonus deal removes a major supply-chain threat in an already tight memory market, where AI data center buildouts have driven surging demand, soaring prices, and heightened procurement risk across global semiconductor supply chains.
Samsung Electronics' shares surged after it clinched an 11th-hour deal with its South Korean union to avert a strike, although the terms — which included bonuses of around $416,000 for some workers — gave rise to some concern https://t.co/azFdL0htenpic.twitter.com/1q5naanI5e
Here are the key points of the Samsung-union deal reached in the 11th hour of negotiations:
Samsung will introduce a new 10-year performance bonus system for its semiconductor division.
Plan links worker bonuses to profitability, with ambitious profit targets of 200 trillion won annually from 2026-28 and 100 trillion won annually from 2029-35.
Bonus pool will be funded by 10.5% of performance and paid in stock after tax.
Employees can sell 1/3 of the shares immediately, while the rest must be held for up to 2 years.
Samsung also agreed to an average wage increase of 6.2%, improved child support payments, and expanded housing loans.
Based on Bloomberg calculations, Samsung’s 78,000 semiconductor workers could receive an average bonus of about 513 million won, or $340,000, depending on final profit levels and individual allocation. That would be more than triple the company’s average employee pay of 158 million won in 2025.
Local outlet Yonhap estimates suggest workers in the memory division could receive even larger payouts, potentially around 600 million won per person, though the company does not disclose exact staffing levels by chip segment.
Samsung’s union told workers they will be able to vote on the proposed 2026 wage and bonus agreement on Saturday morning.
“HK shares traded directionally lower today, with optimism resurging in memory-heavy markets. Samsung’s deal with the labor union brought fresh optimism with Kospi jumping by +8%, and understandably fueling some rotation out of HK/China,” Goldman analyst Shubham Ghosh told clients.
Barclays analyst Bumki Son noted, “As Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are now competing for global talents, competitive compensation packages are well warranted.”
Earlier this month, the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea warned, “There are mounting concerns that any significant production disruptions or operational uncertainty at Samsung Electronics could place additional strain on the global memory semiconductor market, potentially worsening supply bottlenecks, price volatility, procurement uncertainty, and broader supply chain instability.”
All eyes are on the union vote this weekend that extends into next week.
3. CHINA/
CHINA/USA RARE EARTHS
The US Is Still A Decade Away From Breaking China’s Rare Earth Hold
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 09:20 PM
The U.S. is still at least a decade away from meaningfully reducing its dependence on China for the most critical rare earth minerals, despite billions of dollars in new investment and political pledges to move faster, according to a new report from Bloomberg.
While Washington has pushed to build domestic mining, refining, and manufacturing capacity, analysts say China is likely to retain its dominance over heavy rare earths—particularly dysprosium and terbium—until at least the mid-2030s. Those minerals are essential for the high-performance magnets used in fighter jets, submarines, missiles, electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other advanced technologies.
Forecasts from McKinsey & Company, CRU Group, and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence suggest producers outside China will meet less than 20% of global demand for dysprosium and terbium by 2035. The U.S. and its allies may make faster progress in reducing reliance on China for more abundant light rare earths, but the heavier materials remain far harder to replace.
The challenge is not simply digging more minerals out of the ground. Rare earth production involves mining ore, separating it into oxides, and then converting those materials into metals and magnets…a supply chain China dominates at nearly every step.
Heavy rare earths are especially difficult because they are less abundant and far more complex to refine. Producing ultra-pure material can require more than 1,000 chemical separation stages, and even small mistakes can affect magnet performance. Over decades, China built a deep advantage through refining infrastructure, technical expertise, and government-backed industrial policy. It also restricted exports of certain processing technologies, making it harder for competitors to catch up. The U.S., by comparison, has only a small pool of specialists with experience in rare earth separation and processing.
Bloomberg writes that Washington has begun investing heavily to rebuild domestic capacity, including Pentagon support for Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., currently the only commercial refiner of heavy rare earths outside China.
But production remains limited. Lynas produced just eight tons of dysprosium and terbium combined in the first quarter of 2026, while global demand is measured in thousands of tons each year. New projects in the United States, Australia, and Brazil could expand supply, but analysts still expect significant shortages in mining, refining, and magnet manufacturing by 2035.
China’s lower production costs have made the market even harder for rivals; past price swings wiped out many non-Chinese projects before they could scale. That leaves the U.S. facing a long and expensive effort to loosen China’s hold over a supply chain that has become increasingly important to both economic competitiveness and national security.
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
Residents Of UK Town Forced To Form ‘Vigilante’ Security Team To Protect Women And Kids From Migrants
Residents of a quiet East Sussex town have been left with no choice but to patrol their own streets after the leftist Labour government dumped hundreds of unvetted male migrants into a former army camp on their doorstep.
Crowborough, a small community of around 20,000 people, is now home to a volunteer security force called Crowborough Aware. With 81 vetted locals stepping up, the group is conducting regular patrols to deter trouble and keep women and children safe.
This is the direct result of years of open borders policies that have seen tiny, peaceful towns turned into testing grounds for mass migration.
🚨🇬🇧 Meanwhile in Crowborough, UK
“6 Migrants surrounded a member of the public”
81 Local Volunteers have formed their own Community Security Team – some are calling them vigilantes.
Why?
Because the treasonous UK Government have just moved over 500 unknown military age… pic.twitter.com/enfoJE32L9
— Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) May 18, 2026
The breaking point came when six migrants surrounded a member of the public. That incident pushed locals into action.
The post continues, “Some are calling them vigilantes. Why? “Because the treasonous UK Government have just moved over 500 unknown military age fighting Men into their small town & they are trying to prevent the horrific headlines that are seen daily in every corner of the country from happening there.”
A GB News reporter spoke directly to members of the new patrol group. One volunteer stated clearly: “We are a visible presence to provide safety and security. We are a deterrent.”
The group is not hunting trouble—they are preventing it in a town the government abandoned.
This is Britain in 2026: a small town of 20,000 forced to form a patrol group to protect women and children from hundreds of illegal migrants the government planted there as it abandoned British people to fend for themselves.
The town’s residents have been orderly protesting for months, describing themselves as “petrified,” installing extra security and questioning why their community—historically used to train British soldiers—was being repurposed without consultation.
A local woman named Lucy called into a radio show and encapsulated the mood: “I just know that a load of women and young girls are walking around even in the day with alarms. They’ve taken self-defence classes… It’s scaring all women.”
Instead of addressing those legitimate safety concerns, some local officials doubled down on absurdity. In February, Green Party councillor Anne Cross announced she was taking her young grandchildren to hand-deliver handmade Valentine’s cards to the adult male migrants at the camp.
“There is nothing like getting to know people and hearing their stories in order to dispel fear,” she claimed, insisting there was “no evidence children or women are at a higher risk from people seeking asylum”
The Home Office has moved around 350 single adult male asylum seekers into the Crowborough Training Camp since January, with capacity for more. Migrants can leave the site, creating what locals call a “village within a village.” Police have increased presence following incidents, but residents say it is not enough.
Why does the government keep targeting small, 95% white villages and towns like Crowborough for these placements?
It is almost as if the goal is to engineer the maximum possible cultural upheaval in the shortest time.
Peaceful communities with low crime and strong social cohesion are suddenly expected to absorb hundreds of unknown military-age men from vastly different backgrounds, with no meaningful vetting or integration plan.
The pattern repeats across the country—tiny places with limited resources and policing get flooded while officials lecture residents about “misinformation” and “fear.” The result is exactly what we see now: locals forced to organise their own security.
Crowborough Aware’s patrols are a visible sign that British communities are no longer waiting for Westminster to wake up. They are acting to protect their own.
The government’s response—more accommodation sites, more dismissals of local concerns—only confirms what more people are realising: the people must look after themselves when the state refuses to do its most basic job.
END
GREECE/DUBAI
Dubai’s Shipping Hub Status Under Pressure As Some Industry Veterans Eye Greece
Some shipping industry workers based in Dubai are looking to relocate from the UAE as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, one ship-owner and two industry sources familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye.
Western expats working in the maritime industry are eyeing the Greek capital, Athens , and Cyprus as potential alternatives to Dubai, given those countries’ dominant positions in shipping and the favorable tax policies they offer the industry, the sources said.
The search for alternatives to Dubai underscores how some expats, particularly westerners with easy access to Europe, do not expect the Gulf to return to its pre-war position anytime soon.
Around 2,000 vessels are trapped in the Gulf as a result of competing US and Iranian blockades of the waterway. But the shipping industry is experiencing a boom as a result of the war. The lockdown of vessels has compressed supply, and rates are soaring as energy corridors are rewired.
US oil and gas exports have hit record highs as a result of the war. But the transit time from the US Gulf coast to Asia is substantially longer than the journey from the Arabian Gulf.
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, which tracks the price of crude oil tanker rates, is up 240 percent since the war on Iran started.
The industry’s good fortune stands in stark contrast to the UAE’s maritime sector, which has been pummeled by the blockade.
The Gulf state turned itself into the dominant logistics hub for the Middle East, Asia and Africa. The port of Jebel Ali is one of the largest in the world, and is a major hub for transhipment, where goods are transferred from one vessel to another before their final destination.
The UAE’s top export, oil, has also been cut by more than half as a result of Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“It’s not so much the slowdown in business, but the unreliability of Dubai as a hub. Can you count on a flight back to London or Paris for your family during war?” the ship owner said to Middle East Eye.
‘Thousands’ of Dubai real estate offices to close
Dubai benefited potentially more than any other city in the world from the post-Covid boom of soaring asset prices, cryptocurrency, and remote work.
Capitalizing on its low corporate tax rate, zero income tax or capital gains tax, and smooth bureaucracy, it became a magnet for London bankers and American “finance bros”. Its financial institutions have served as a haven for Sudanese militia leaders dealing in gold to Russian and Ukrainian expats fleeing war in Eastern Europe.
But very few are willing to write Dubai off the map, particularly given the UAE’s deep pockets, yet there are some signs that the war has pulled a curtain over its tremendous boom years.
Arabian Business reported on Wednesday that thousands of real estate agencies in Dubai may close in the coming months due to the war. A leading property search platform said that up to 30 percent of the agencies active on its site could shutter within the next five to six months.
As with western expats, where the war is filtering out those most committed to Dubai, the real estate agencies most likely to close are smaller operators or those that focused on speculative ends of the market, such as off-plan sales.
Arabian Business cited Lewis Allsopp, the chairman and co-founder of Allsopp & Allsopp, a real estate consultancy, as saying that Dubai’s ratio of brokers to residents is close to 1,000 per 100,000. For comparison, London has around 176 brokers per 100,000 people.
END
UK
GIVE ME A BREAK!!!! ONE YEAR OLD? CRIME SUSPECT?
UK Police Log One-Year-Old Baby As Crime Suspect; Hundreds Of Kids Flagged For Offences
A one-year-old baby girl has been officially recorded as a crime suspect by Kent Police after allegedly causing a minor injury to another toddler. This is part of a shocking tally where 683 children under 10 were reported for offences over three years.
This isn’t some isolated bureaucratic error. It’s the latest symptom of a system that treats tiny children as miniature criminals or budding bigots while real threats from failed integration and ideological grooming go unaddressed.
None of these under-10s can be prosecuted – the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales is 10 – yet police are dutifully logging every playground scrape, tantrum, or alleged slight under ridiculous Home Office rules.
Figures obtained via Freedom of Information request reveal the scale: six two-year-olds, 11 three-year-olds, and 20 four-year-olds among the suspects. Boys made up over three-quarters of cases, with violence against others the top category. There were also 130 ‘sexual offences’ involving children under nine.
Kent County Council cabinet member for children’s services, Councillor Paul Webb, called the numbers “not great” but stressed early intervention through prevention programmes. He pointed to county lines drug gangs recruiting vulnerable kids, especially those in care, as a major driver.
Kent Police Chief Superintendent Rob Marsh explained that reports come from victims, families, schools, and agencies, with the focus on safeguarding rather than punishment: prevention, education, and family support.
This toddler-as-suspect absurdity doesn’t emerge in a vacuum. It mirrors the broader UK push to turn nurseries, schools, and playgrounds into surveillance hubs for ideological compliance.
Just weeks ago, nurseries in Wales were urged to report “racist” toddlers to police under a £1.3 million taxpayer-funded scheme.
Childcare workers receive training to spot and log “hate incidents” by children barely out of nappies, complete with audits for “diversity” and lessons on “white privilege.”
The guidance from Diversity and Anti-Racist Professional Learning (DARPL) at Cardiff Metropolitan University explicitly frames toddler squabbles as potential hate crimes warranting 999 calls.
Meanwhile, schools in Sheffield and elsewhere are pushing radical race doctrine claiming “Black people cannot be racist” towards white people because they supposedly lack “power.”
Materials for seven-year-olds hammer home “white privilege” and demand kids monitor their language and report peers.
Related efforts include schools pressured over “Islamophobic” children’s drawings that could be deemed blasphemous under Islamic law, books celebrating small boat migrants and telling kids there’s “plenty of room” for unlimited crossings, government pushes to snitch on “anti-Muslim hostility,” and even a video game flagging kids who question mass migration as potential extremists.
While authorities obsess over logging baby “assaults” and policing toddler speech, genuine safeguarding issues fester.
Child-on-child sexual abuse is a recognised national concern requiring police referral regardless of age. County lines exploitation preys on the vulnerable.
Yet the response often defaults to bureaucratic box-ticking and ideological reprogramming rather than addressing root causes like family breakdown, open borders straining social services, and education systems more focused on dividing kids by race than teaching right from wrong.
Critics are right to call this Orwellian. Toddlers cannot meaningfully hold racist or transphobic beliefs – they lack the cognitive framework.
Projecting adult political neuroses onto them turns childhood into a minefield of potential reports and exclusions. It erodes parental authority and normal development in favour of state-approved conformity.
This is the inevitable endpoint of a cultural shift that prioritises grievance hierarchies, mass demographic change without integration, and “anti-racism” that actually fosters resentment.
Parents see their kids labelled suspects or bigots for normal behaviour while institutions bend over backwards to accommodate sensitivities that clash with British norms.
The solution starts with rejecting this madness. Reclaim education for basics like reading, maths, and personal responsibility. Prioritise actual child protection over ideological score-settling. Push back against the surveillance state treating every playground as a crime scene or re-education camp.
British children deserve a childhood free from this nonsense – one rooted in reality, freedom, and common sense.
END
UK/USA
Watch: Vance Urges UK Patriots To Defend Their Culture Against Starmer Mass Migration Betrayal
US Vice President JD Vance has sent a direct message of support to Britons standing up for their culture, telling attendees of the Unite the Kingdom rally to push forward despite Keir Starmer’s attempts to silence opposition to mass migration.
The rally, held this past weekend in London and organised by Tommy Robinson, saw thousands of patriots turn out waving British flags.
Starmer’s government had tried to sabotage the event by blocking visas for 11 foreign speakers it labelled “far-right agitators.”
🚨 WOW! JD Vance just broke it down PERFECTLY for patriots in the West rising up against 3rd world migration, BUCKING Keir Starmer calling it "far-right"
"To everybody in the UK who rejects [3rd world migration], I'd encourage them to just KEEP ON GOING! It's OK to want to… pic.twitter.com/cKUjz95Nt7
The Prime Minister openly boasted about the bans on X, writing “I’ll always champion peaceful protest. But the Unite the Kingdom march organisers are peddling hatred and division. We’ve already blocked visas for far-right agitators who want to come here to spew their extremist views. They don’t speak for the decent, fair, respectful Britain I know.”
He followed up: “Today the voices of division will be loud. They don’t speak for the country I know, one that belongs to all of us.”
A video from the event captured a striking contrast, showing a left-wing woman in tears hugging her masked companion in fright at the sight of the national flag.
Left-wing woman breaks down in TEARS while hugging mask wearing boyfriend after being triggered by thousands of people marching with British flags. 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/8JMyBBq3kw
Vance rejected the establishment narrative that wanting secure borders equals extremism.
“To everybody in the UK who rejects 3rd world migration, I’d encourage them to just KEEP ON GOING! It’s OK to want to defend your culture!” Vance stated.
He added, “All over the West is this idea that the way to generate prosperity is to bring in MILLIONS and millions of unvetted people and DROP them into your neighborhoods — and we simply reject that idea!”
“It’s OK to want to live in a safe neighborhood. It’s okay to want your job to go to yourself and your neighbors and not to a stranger who you don’t even know. It is reasonable for the people in Western societies to want to control who comes into their country and who doesn’t,” Vance stressed.
He added: “A lot of people, frankly, a lot of people in the media have tried to persuade all of those people that it’s somehow racist to want to protect your borders… even though very often the very people who are most affected by low wage immigration are lower income black and Hispanic Americans right here in the United States of America, and I guarantee that’s true in the UK.”
Vance concluded by drawing a direct link to America First: “So we believe in making America great again. You can’t do that unless you protect your borders. I’d encourage our friends in the UK to follow the same path.”
While Starmer brands patriotic pushback as “hatred and division,” ordinary Britons at the rally made clear they simply want what Vance described as basic common sense: safe streets, jobs for locals, and control over their borders.
Vance’s words arrive as frustration with open borders boils over across the West. Working-class communities on both sides of the Atlantic are paying the price through suppressed wages, overburdened services, and rising insecurity — effects the political class routinely dismisses.
By standing with those who reject cultural erasure, Vance is highlighting a fundamental truth: people of free nations have the sovereign right to preserve their identity and security.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
IRAN VS ISRAEL/USA//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Tense Trump-Netanyahu Call As US Presses Iran To ‘Sign The Document’ – But Israel Wants Military Greenlight
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 05:20 PM
Summary
Axios: “Trump continues to say he thinks a deal can be reached, but that he’s ready to resume the war if it isn’t.”
US Marines board Iranian-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman, as it was accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade.
Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war
Oil tumbles after Pakistan again touts final deal draft text imminent, followed by Trump claiming US in ‘final stages’ of peace talks with Iran, though Tehran hasn’t budged on nuclear issue.
Iran’s IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours “in coordination” with Iranian authorities.
The following was issued from the Official Account of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority:
The Islamic Republic of Iran has defined the boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz management supervision area as follows: “The line connecting Kuh Mobarak in Iran and the south of Fujairah in the UAE in the east of the strait to the line connecting the end of Qeshm Island in Iran and Umm al-Qaiwain in the UAE in the west of the strait.”
The statement adds: “Frequencies in this range for passing through the Strait of Hormuz require coordination with the Persian Gulf Waterway Management and a permit from this entity.”
Trump: ‘Sign the Document’ for Face War’s Resumption
Trump and Netanyahu had a reported tense phone call related to ongoing Iran talks, and a proposed peace deal on the table. Netanyahu is said to be seeking a greenlight for renewed military action against Tehran, at a moment the Iranians have not compromised on the nuclear issue.
Per fresh reporting in Axios: “Trump continues to say he thinks a deal can be reached, but that he’s ready to resume the war if it isn’t“:
“The only question is do we go and finish it up or are they gonna be signing a document. Let’s see what happens,” he said on Wednesday at the Coast Guard Academy.
Trump also said Netanyahu “will do whatever I want him to do” on Iran, though he also said they had a good relationship. The two leaders have had temporary disagreements on Iran before but have remained closely coordinated throughout the war.
Iran has confirmed it’s reviewing an updated proposal, but has not yet shown any signs of flexibility.
The same report says of Israel’s position that “Netanyahu is highly skeptical about the negotiations and wants to resume the war to further degrade Iran’s military capabilities and weaken the regime by destroying its critical infrastructure.”
US Marines Board Iran-Flagged Tanker
The Pentagon has announced that US Marines have boarded another Iranian-flagged tanker, this time in the Gulf of Oman. It had been accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade, after which it was boarded.
But, as CENTCOM says, “American forces released the vessel after searching and directing the ship’s crew to alter course.” This as Iran’s IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours “in coordination” with Iranian authorities (per state news).
end
now who would have guessed this: The Pakistani’s are fools to believe this regime.
(zerohedge)
Ayatollah Orders Highly-Enriched Uranium To Remain In Iran, Stymying Trump’s Basis For Deal
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 08:20 AM
The illusion of a grand diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East is once again colliding with reality. The White House has been busy trying to paint a picture of a total capitulation by Tehran, which hasn’t been demonstrated given its consistent position defying Washington’s demands on the nuclear issue.
According to two senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has drawn a hard line in the sand, ordering that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory.
Reuters underscores that “Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s order could further frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump and complicate talks on ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.”
“Israeli officials have told Reuters that Trump has assured Israel that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, needed to make an atomic weapon, will be sent out of Iran and that any peace deal must include a clause on this,” the report continues.
The officials noted that within Tehran, there is deep suspicion that the ceasefire is in fact “a tactical deception by the US,” designed to lull Iran into a “false sense of security… before the fighting resumes.”
The fresh directive from from the supreme leader flies directly in the face of the narrative being spun by Washington and Tel Aviv, given Israeli officials maintain that President Trump explicitly promised Israel that Iran’s highly enriched stockpile would be completely removed from the country as part of any negotiated settlement.
Trump has also recently proclaimed this publicly, for example in a phone interview with CBS News last month, wherein he confidently proclaimed that Iran “agreed to everything” and would cooperate fully to ship its enriched uranium out of the country.
Extraction of nuclear material would of course rely heavily on the assumption of total Iranian compliance, given Trump has also lately appeared to rule out out a hostile invasion force, stating, “No. No troops.”
There seems to be widespread agreement among national security officials at this point that some kind of special forces op to covertly go in and take it would be tantamount to a ‘suicide mission’.
According to more of what Trump (prematurely) proclaimed in the prior CBS interview: “Our people, together with the Iranians, are going to work together to go get it. And then we’ll take it to the United States.”
The reality is all along the two sides’ positions have been very far apart, and largely unbending:
And on a potential deal: “We’ll be getting it together because by that time, we’ll have an agreement and there’s no need for fighting when there’s an agreement. Nice right? That’s better. We would have done it the other way if we had to” – he sought to explain.
At the moment, Iranian officials are reportedly reviewing the latest updated US proposals for peace, having reportedly asked Pakistan for time to assess and study the American points for negotiations.”
For the latest warning from the White House, via Stephen Miller: “Iran has a choice to make: they can either agree to a piece of paper that is satisfactory to the United States, or they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history. That’s the choice they face” – he told Fox News.
IRAN VS ISRAEL USA/ THURSDAY AFTERNOON
Iran’s Drones, Defense Base Being Restored ‘Faster Than Expected’ Amid Extended Ceasefire: US Intelligence
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 10:35 AM
Summary
Reuters reported that Ayatollah ordered that stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. Some Iranian officials then denied report to Al Jazeera.
WH says make a deal or else… “they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history.”
US Intelligence says Iran has reconstitute drone program, defense industrial base, “faster than expected” (CNN).
Drones, Military Industrial Base Being Rapidly Restored Amid Extended Ceasefire
The Iranians have reportedly rebuilt damaged and destroyed defense industrial sites much faster than expected. That’s according to US intelligence assessments cited in CNN, and based on anonymous officials. The Pakistan-mediated talks have been stalled, and each of the last several weeks has seen Washington issue updated peace conditions, only for Tehran to in return counter-issue its own demands. And round and round the indirect negotiation has gone, yet with no breakthrough, or not so much as a step forward.
But perhaps this was all a tactic to simply prolong the ceasefire? It allowed for Iran to rearm and regroup, after the prior 38-days of US-Israeli bombing. “Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, one sign it is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments,” CNN reports Thursday. “Four sources told CNN that US intelligence indicates Iran’s military is reconstituting much faster than initially estimated.”
One US official cited in the report has gone so far as to say “The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC had for reconstitution.” In the recent past, White House officials themselves have admitted that the Islamic Republic is probably reconstituting. Trump in the meantime keeps saying he’s ‘days’ away from reordering strikes amid Tehran’s intransigence. According to more on Iranian efforts to prepare for the next potential round of fighting:
The rebuilding of military capabilities, including replacing missile sites, launchers and production capacity for key weapons systems destroyed during the current conflict, means that Iran remains a significant threat to regional allies should President Donald Trump restart the bombing campaign, according to the four sources familiar with the intelligence. It also calls into question claims about the extent to which US-Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military in the long term.
While the time to restart production of different weapons components varies, some US intelligence estimates indicate Iran could fully reconstitute its drone attack capability in as soon as six months, one of the sources, a US official, told CNN.
Iranian Denials
Throughout the morning, and since the Reuters report was first issued, various unnamed Iranian officials are saying the Ayatollah gave no such order regarding taking enriched uranium removal off the table when it comes to potential negotiations. According to an Al Jazeera correspondent:
A senior Iranian official denied to me reports that Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei has issued a new order requiring enriched uranium to remain inside Iran, saying they are “propaganda by the enemies of the deal” The official added there are “no new order has been issued,” and that Tehran’s position has been consistent: Iran would downblend the material itself. “That is the subject of talks in the next stage,” the official said.
This will likely only fuel speculation of deep division within Iranian leadership ranks. Traditionally the IRGC reports directly to the Ayatollah, and is seen as the more hardline faction, ready to resist compromise and opt for a military response to US pressure.
Oil snaps lower on the denials… per Newsquawk:
In an immediate reaction, crude fell to the detriment of the USD and the benefit of equity and fixed benchmarks. Specifically:
• WTI Jul’26 fell from USD 102/bbl to USD 100.56/bbl. • UST Jun’26 lifted from 109-00 to 109-04+. • ES Jun’26 lifted from 7418 to 7433.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA THURSDAY UPDATES
A BIG JOKE!!
Oil Tumbles After Reported Final Draft Of US-Iran Agreement Reached, But Nuclear Issue Absent
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 01:25 PM
Summary
AI Arabiya TV obtains what it describes as final draft of US-lran agreement, oil tumbles.
Reuters reported that Ayatollah ordered that stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. Some Iranian officials then denied report to Al Jazeera.
WH says make a deal or else… “they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history.”
US Intelligence says Iran has reconstitute drone program, defense industrial base, “faster than expected” (CNN).
Draft Of US-Iran Agreement Reportedly Reached, But Trump Still Pressing Nuclear Issue, As Iran President Says ‘Won’t Back Down’
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 03:40 PM
Summary
Iranian president vows to not back down, as Trump still vows to get nuclear material.
AI Arabiya TV obtains what it describes as final draft of US-lran agreement, oil tumbles.
Reuters reported that Ayatollah ordered that stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. Some Iranian officials then denied report to Al Jazeera.
WH says make a deal or else… “they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history.”
US Intelligence says Iran has reconstitute drone program, defense industrial base, “faster than expected” (CNN).
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated, “We will not bow our heads, our ministers and experts are working day and night, without a single day off.” He added, per state sources: “We are willing to sacrifice as much as possible for the honor and pride of Iran, and we are not afraid of martyrdom.”
Markets reversed earlier gains as Iran’s President said on state TV that they won’t back down in talks. The momentum then picked up when a “high-level source” told Al-Arabiya that the Pakistani Army Chief will not head to Tehran tonight.
The Pakistani were supposed to head to Iran only when the reach of an agreement was in sight, so this kind of denies the earlier reports of a US and Iran draft agreement.
US stock indices erased more than half of earlier gains. We’ve seen the same reaction in oil, FX and bond markets but now they are consolidating.
Still, Al Jazeera is reporting that “negotiators are very close to reaching a deal, and are currently working on a draft text. At the same time, another source told Al Jazeera that it is too early to judge whether a serious, final agreement is within reach.”
IRNA has cited a Pakistani official who says the talks are “moving in the right direct” – though it’s anyone’s guess at this point. The prior reported draft did not take up the nuclear issue. Trump continues to press the nuclear issue:
US President Donald Trump has again pledged to seize Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of any agreement over Tehran’s nuclear program.
“Look, we’re going to make sure they don’t have a nuclear weapon or we’re going to have to do something very drastic. I believe when it’s put to the people of our country, they will all agree we cannot let Iran get a nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
Asked whether Iran could retain its enriched uranium, Trump replied: “No, we will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it, we’ll probably destroy it after we get it. But we’re not going to let them have it.”
Oil Plunges on Final Draft of US-Iran Agreement Reached
Is this the one? While we’ve seen this rodeo before, oil is plunging on a Saudi media report which is positive for peace. Crude hits low of day…
Traders Circulate AI Arabiya TV obtaining what it describes as final draft of US-lran agreement: (CLICK TO SEE KEY PROVISIONS) – UNCONFIRMED
Key provisions include:
1) An immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire on all fronts (land, sea, air)
2) Mutual commitment not to target military, civilian, or economic infrastructure
3) Cessation of military operations and instigating media warfare
4) Respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference in internal affairs
5) Guaranteed freedom of navigation in the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Sea of Oman
6) Establishment of a joint monitoring and dispute resolution mechanism
7) Launch of negotiations on outstanding issues within seven days
8) Gradual lifting of U.S. sanctions in exchange for Iran’s adherence to the terms
9) Affirmation of compliance with international law and the UN Charter
Importantly, there’s no mention of the nuclear issue.
“The agreement is stated to enter into force immediately upon formal announcement by both parties,” the Al Arabiya report says.
END
END OF THE DAY: IT WAS ALL FABRICATED:
No Deal Reached, Amid ‘Fabricated’ Mideast Media Reports As Trump Presses Nuclear Issue & Iran President Says ‘Won’t Back Down’
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 04:05 PM
Summary
Iranian president vows to not back down, as Trump still vows to get nuclear material.
AI Arabiya TV obtains what it describes as final draft of US-lran agreement, oil tumbles.
Reuters reported that Ayatollah ordered that stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. Some Iranian officials then denied report to Al Jazeera.
WH says make a deal or else… “they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history.”
US Intelligence says Iran has reconstitute drone program, defense industrial base, “faster than expected” (CNN).
After something like eight hours – which unleashed significant moves in oil and markets – complete retractions are being issued, with words like ‘fabrication’ used, after which oil swings higher…
Iranian President: Won’t Back Down
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated, “We will not bow our heads, our ministers and experts are working day and night, without a single day off.” He added, per state sources: “We are willing to sacrifice as much as possible for the honor and pride of Iran, and we are not afraid of martyrdom.”
The Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is sanctioning four individuals associated with a pro-Hamas flotilla that is trying to access Gaza in support of the terrorist group, the department said in a May 19 statement.
The flotilla is organized by the Popular Conference for Palestinians Abroad (PCPA), which has been classified as a specially designated global terrorist by the United States.
“The PCPA was established with funding from Hamas’s International Relations Bureau and Hamas directs its activity through the placement of Hamas officials throughout the organization, including its executive body, the General Secretariat,” the Treasury said.
“So-called humanitarian flotillas that are organized by or supporting designated parties represent a significant compliance risk for financial institutions. Sanctioned terrorist groups continue to maintain significant influence over maritime flotillas to Gaza.”
The four individuals sanctioned by the Treasury include a Spanish member of the PCPA’s General Secretariat, who is a central figure of the flotilla; the acting secretary general and president of the PCPA, who is from Jordan; a Belgium-based European coordinator for the Samidoun organization; and a Samidoun coordinator from Spain.
Samidoun is a front organization for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which the State Department has designated as a foreign terrorist organization. Both the PCPA and Samidoun act on behalf of sanctioned Palestinian terrorist organizations, the Treasury said.
In addition, OFAC sanctioned several members of Muslim Brotherhood networks who are aligned with Hamas.
All property and interests in property of the sanctioned individuals that are in the United States or in control of U.S. persons are effectively blocked and must be reported to OFAC. The sanctions prohibit U.S. persons from engaging in any transactions involving the property or interests in property of those who are sanctioned.
“The pro-terror flotilla attempting to reach Gaza is a ludicrous attempt to undermine President Trump’s successful progress toward lasting peace in the region,” Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said. “Treasury will continue to sever Hamas’ global financial support networks, no matter where in the world they are.”
State Department spokesperson Thomas Pigott said in a May 19 statement that OFAC has targeted three enablers – the flotilla organizers, Muslim Brotherhood members, and Samidoun members – who he said are used by Hamas to sustain its position in Gaza, engage in terrorist violence, and finance its operations.
OFAC’s action exposes how Hamas exploits purported civil society organizations, diaspora groups, and religious institutions “to advance its malign agenda while claiming humanitarian objectives,” according to the spokesperson.
“Under President Trump, the United States remains committed to supporting efforts to achieve lasting peace in the Middle East,” he added. “We will continue to use all available tools to counter those who support terrorism and obstruct the path to a peaceful resolution of the conflict.”
Hamas-UN Ties
Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers are aiming to eliminate a U.N. agency accused of employing Hamas terrorists, according to a May 19 statement from the office of Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). The agency being targeted is the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).
In February 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning funding for UNRWA. According to the order, the agency has reportedly been infiltrated by members of foreign terrorist organizations, with employees from the organization being directly involved in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel.
UNRWA has dismissed these allegations. In a September 2025 fact sheet, the agency said that claims of some members of its staff in Gaza having links with Hamas or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad are false and that it has “not received any information, let alone any evidence, from the Israeli Authorities or any other Member State” about such accusations.
In a May 18 letter to Trump, Cotton and 24 colleagues asked that the administration take “decisive action to fully dismantle UNRWA and eliminate it from the UN budget.”
“Any aid organization in Gaza or otherwise must be demonstrably free of ties to terrorism and committed to transparency, accountability, and peace,” they said in the letter. “We must ensure this failed system doesn’t continue reinforcing the conditions that have fueled terrorism for generations. The time to act is now.”
END
IRAN VS USA
Trump Posts Article Laying Out: “Here’s How To Crush Tehran In Three Moves”
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 10:45 AM
President Trump on Thursday posted to Truth Social a New York Post article which was first published over two weeks ago, on May 1st, with the headline “Here’s how to crush Tehran in three moves.“
Trump’s new social media post, issued without additional comment, comes just after news of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having drawn a hard line in the sand, ordering that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. So now the world awaits what’s next at a moment the White House has renewed threats of massive military strikes if Iran doesn’t quickly come to the table and conform.
The NY Post article had straight-faced and without a hint of intended irony proclaimed: “President Trump has the upper hand.” That statement was issued on day 63 of Trump’s Iran war. Today is day 83.
What did the interim look like as the world’s most powerful military force has been unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, amid constant threats to take new, bigger military action – but which never actually materializes (at least not yet) no matter how many times the Iranians reject Washington’s terms?
The below timeline and outline, stretching from last week into this one, basically illustrates the weekly Trump pattern that’s been on display going back many weeks at this point:
Wed: Iran wants a deal. They called us
Thu: We are looking at proposals
Fri: We might be close. Very close
Sat: Iran knows what to do
Sun: OBLITERATION. TOTAL. COMPLETE. They have 24 hrs.
Mon: The storm is coming
Tue: I’m giving it more time
This is what ‘winning’ looks like according to the NY Post, apparently. The publication also feels itself in a position to give ‘advice’ and guidance to the White House on executing a war. “His best path forward is to pursue three lines of effort in parallel,” author Richard Goldberg (of Foundation for Defense of Democracies) wrote. It must be remembered that very recently a former senior official from FDD Action, the think tank’s lobbying arm, joined Trump’s Iran negotiating team – his name is Nick Stewart.
Sustain the blockade and accompanying economic warfare to destabilize the regime’s hold on the state;
Remake the world in America’s energy dominance image to mitigate long-term price impacts while undermining China’s global ambition to defeat the United States;
Order the US military to forge a path through the Strait of Hormuz to restore freedom of navigation on our terms not Tehran’s.
…if only simply ordering a military “path through”was that easy!
“You might call the latter Operation Epic Passage — a combined naval and air mission of self-defense that offers escort to tankers and restores freedom of navigation, all while making clear to Tehran the devastating consequences of breaking cease-fire,” Goldberg, who openly boasts of his close ties to the Israeli government, also wrote. He further offered the mission name of “Blockade Plus”.
After the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury, when it became clear that the large-scale US and Israeli bombardment would not produced regime change in Iran, pundits widely questioned whether the Trump White House actually had a plan, or long-term strategic vision for the military mission.
And now, after more than 80 days in, the public gets Trump posting a NY Post article by a hawkish FDD writer, which seems more focused merely onways to mitigate the blowback and ‘make the best’ of a failed regime change operation, in the wake of the administration’s constantly evolving stated goals.
ISRAEL TBN
END
TURKEY
ERDOGAN IS THE MOST STUPIDIST PERSON ON THE PLANET
Turkey Liquidated Almost All Of Its US Treasuries In March To Defend Crashing Lira
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 11:20 AM
Two months ago, at the end of March, we reported that Turkey was aggressively dumping its gold reserves in a panic scramble to obtain dollar funding, which Erdogan’s regime was using to keep the Turkish lira from crashing, and to also pay for energy imports which had suddenly soared in price as a result of the Iran war.
The violent selling by Turkey (and other emerging markets) was behind the brutal plunge in gold prices, which tumbled by more than $1000 from near all-time highs at the start of the war to the low 4000s by the time Turkey had done selling much of its gold.
Then earlier this week, we got another confirmation of Turkey’s wild liquidation spree when the latest central bank data showed that Turkey’s foreign reserves had their biggest monthly decline on record in March, as the Iran war triggered global selloffs in emerging market assets and strained the lira.
According to balance-of-payments data, Turkey’s official reserves cratered by $43.4 billion in March. Part of the decline reflected state intervention to offset portfolio outflows. The current-account deficit, meanwhile, widened to $9.7 billion in March from $7.3 billion in February as a result of soaring commodity prices.
A major energy importer, Turkey has been hit hard by higher oil and gas prices caused by the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting disruptions to world supplies of crude and refined products. Meanwhile, global banks have started changing their formerly favorable outlook on the lira, citing the exploding current-account deficit. Should inflation pressures persist, Turkey will have no choice but to pursue another accelerated devaluation of the Turkish lira.
“As international institutions continue to raise their average oil price forecasts for 2026, disruptions in supply chains and ongoing regional tensions — and their potential negative impact on transportation and tourism revenues — keep upward risks alive in year-end projections” for Turkey, said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci.
Turkish central bank Governor Fatih Karahan said last week that the ratio between the current-account deficit and gross domestic product would be “below historical averages” this year while acknowledging the upside risks.
Yet as we said in March, while selling gold is a step of clear desperation for Turkey which had put in much efforts in recent years to build up a substantial gold stock, it is understandable for a regime that suddenly finds itself in a dollar funding crisis, the bigger question is did Turkey do the same with its holdings of Treasuries which are far more liquid and thus far less likely to move the market even when facing a sizable liquidation.
The answer, we learned today, is a resounding yes.
According to Bloomberg calculations based on US Treasury data, Turkey sold almost all of its US Treasuries in March as it stepped up efforts to support its currency during the first month of the Iran war. The amount of Treasuries held by Turkey crashed to just $1.8 billion by the end of March, down from $16 billion the previous month, the data showed. The figure includes securities held by the central bank and other Turkish entities, including corporates.
The decline coincided with a selloff in Turkish markets after the Middle East conflict erupted, sending oil prices sharply higher. The central bank moved immediately to prevent a crash in the lira by tightening funding conditions and selling off foreign exchange and gold assets. Its interventions also included swapping gold from reserves, although now that it has also dumped the bulk of its last ditch dollar reserves, those swaps will almost certainly end up forcing Turkey to hand over whatever gold was pledged.
Turkey’s Treasury holdings were as high as $21 billion in February 2025 after the country spent a year rebuilding reserves. They had peaked about a decade ago at $80 billion, before steadily declining as relations with the US soured over a range of political and geopolitical disputes, and as Turkey consistently sold reserves to maintain a smooth devaluation of the lira.
Despite the interventions, the lira has remained under pressure as the war drags on. Last week, the central bank raised its year-end inflation target to 24% from 16%, after data showed annual inflation accelerated to 32.4%. Turkish bonds have also suffered steep losses, with 10-year yields hitting record highs of 35.75%.
And now that Turkey has no more gold or Treasurys with which to defend the currency, expect a sharp and painful death in the currency which has gone from less than 10 against the dollar five years ago to a record 45.6 today..
RUSSIA AND BALTIC STATES
Kremlin Blasts ‘Borderline Crazy’ Threat From Baltic NATO State
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Russia has express outrage and condemnation of what it has on Wednesday denounced as a “borderline crazy threat” from NATO member Lithuania.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys in an interview this week with Neue Zurcher Zeitung provocativelystated that NATO is capable of destroying all Russian bases located in Kaliningrad if necessary.
“We have to show the Russians that we’re capable of penetrating the small fortress they’ve built in Kaliningrad,” he said of the Russian exclave. “NATO has the capability, if necessary, to raze Russian air defenses and missile bases there to the ground.”
Russia’s RT has published the Kremlin response as follows:
Recent threats directed at Russia’s Kaliningrad Region by Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys are “borderline crazy” and reflect a “maniacal” hostility toward Russia among Lithuania’s leadership, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.
“This anti-Russian sentiment makes them blind, prevents them from thinking about the future and from acting in the interests of their nations,” Peskov said, referring to political elites in all three Baltic states.
Later in the day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov echoed Peskov’s remarks, arguing that Western officials resort to such hostile rhetoric to assert their relevance. “But unlike the philosopher [Rene Descartes] who said ‘I think, therefore I am’ these people simply are,” the diplomat joked.
As for his other hawkish comments in the interview, the Lithuanian top diplomat strongly suggested the Ukraine war could spread deep into Europe, saying that should the frontline in Ukraine collapse, the consequences would be felt not only across NATO’s eastern flank but throughout the entire European Union.
“The idea that a conflict with Moscow would only affect Russia’s immediate neighbors is a dangerous misconception. It’s part of Russian propaganda,” Budrys said.
“If the frontline collapses, everything collapses – the EU, the economy, social order,” he added. “There isn’t a single safe haven in Western Europe that would escape the consequences of war. We must finally quantify the cost of a lack of deterrence honestly.”
As a reminder, Kaliningrad is surrounded by Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east, which makes Moscow naturally alarmed whenever Polish or Lithuanian officials spew forth threats related to the exclave, which is Russian sovereign territory. However, Europe has also been fearful over the significant military assets and radar capability that Russia has stationed there.
END
RUSSIA//SCANDAVIA
KORYBKO…
Norway Wants To Lead A “Viking Bloc” For Containing Russia In Northern Europe
It can simultaneously threaten Russia along the increasingly interconnected Arctic and Baltic fronts.
Russian Ambassador to Norway Nikolai Korchunov gave a brief interview to TASS about bilateral relations. He warned that Norway is integrating new NATO members Sweden and Finland into the bloc’s regional plans. More American military bases and NATO facilities are opening up there too. To make matters worse, 32,500 troops from 14 NATO countries in last March’s “Cold Response” military drills in Norway and Finland’s northern regions, which add to growing NATO threats to Russia from this direction.
NATO’s militarization of the Arctic, which also includes artificially engineered tensions over the demilitarized Svalbard Archipelago, is proceeding in parallel with its militarization of the Baltic.
Korchunov believes that this raises the risk of the bloc one day attempting to blockade Russia. He reassured his compatriots that the authorities will defend their country’s interests, however, including through military-technical means in an allusion to new naval escorts of some commercial vessels.
In connection with blockade scenarios, Korchunov was asked about TASS’ report from early April about how “Ukraine readies terrorist attacks on Russian ships off coast of Norway”, which he said caused quite a stir in his host country. He didn’t elaborate on how exactly Russia plans to deter or defend against potential Ukrainian drone attacks from Norway, but he ominously warned that escalating threats to Russia from Norway “will inevitably lead to a directly proportional increase in risks for Norway itself.”
Korchunov wasn’t asked about it in his interview, but the week prior to its release, the UK announced that it’ll lead a new multilateral naval initiative against Russia with Norway and eight others. This goes to show Norway’s growing role in threatening Russia through blockade scenarios, whether they’re in its neighboring Arctic region and/or the nearby Baltic one. As a founding member of NATO, Norway seems to believe that this obligates it to lead Russia’s containment in Northern Europe.
To that end, it’s functioning as Sweden and Finland’s “big brother” in NATO while actively cooperating with the UK, one of Russia’s historical nemeses. This enables Norway to simultaneously advance Russia’s containment along the increasingly interconnected Arctic and Baltic fronts. Given its oil wealth, Norway could also extend military loans to its “little brothers” for accelerating their military buildups and the subsequent creation of a northern regional command against Russia as part of the US’ “NATO 3.0” plans.
The preceding insight draws attention to one of the ways in which multipolarity is reshaping Europe, namely through the trend of regional military integration, whether it’s Norway wanting to lead a nascent “Viking Bloc” or Poland trying to restore its lost Great Power status in Central and Eastern Europe. The Anglo-American Axis is managing this division of military-strategic labor, with the US being the senior partner and the UK being the junior one, and they plan to replicate this model elsewhere in Eurasia.
Apart from Norway and Poland’s regional military blocs, Romania provides this duopoly with reach into Moldova and the Black Sea, while Turkiye expands their influence in the Black Sea but also the South Caucasus, Caspian Sea, and Central Asia via the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”. There’s also AUKUS+, which could prospectively include Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and even Indonesia. The emerging result is “The Globalization of NATO” with multipolar characteristics.
END
RUSSIA/BELARUS
“Drills Are Intended To Send A Signal”: Russia Holds Massive Nuclear Drills On Land, Sea And Air Alongside Belarus
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 12:00 PM
Trucks carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles rumbled over forest roads, atomic-powered submarines set sail from Arctic and Pacific ports, and crews scrambled into warplanes as Russia and neighboring Belarus held the final stage of their joint nuclear drills Thursday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the maneuvers in a video call with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko.“The use of nuclear weapons is an extreme, exceptional measure for ensuring the national security of our states,” Putin said, according to AP.
Lukashenko earlier inspected Russian short-range nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles at a military unit involved in the drills and declared: “I dreamed about this machine a long time ago.”
The three-day drills that began Tuesday come amid a surge in Ukrainian drone strikes. including on Moscow’s suburbs that killed three people and damaged several buildings and industrial facilities. The strikes made it harder for officials in the Kremlin to cast the conflict in Ukraine — now in its fifth year — as something so distant that it doesn’t affect the daily routines of Russian civilians.
Drills involve wide array of nuclear weapons
Russia’s Defense Ministry said the exercise involved 64,000 troops, over 200 missile launchers, more than 140 aircraft, 73 surface warships and 13 submarines, including eight armed with nuclear-tipped ICBMs. The drills focused on the “preparation and use of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression,” it said.
The maneuvers also practice cooperation with Belarus, an ally that hosts Russian nuclear weapons. Russian arsenals in Belarus include its latest intermediate range nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system.
Along with nuclear-tipped ground- and submarine-launched ICBMs, the maneuvers featured a broad assortment of short- and medium-range weapons.
Unlike the intercontinental missiles that can destroy entire cities, tactical nuclear weapons intended for use against troops on the battlefield are less powerful. They include aerial bombs and warheads for short- and medium-range missiles and artillery munitions.
The Defense Ministry said the Russian armed forces test-fired Yars and Sineva ICBMs, as well as medium-range sea-launched Zircon and air-launched Kinzhal missiles, noting that all missiles hit their designated practice targets. Belarusian troops test-fired a short-range Iskander ballistic missile inside Russia.
Putin has repeatedly reminded the world about Moscow’s nuclear arsenals since the war in Ukraine started in February 2022 to deter the West from ramping up support for Kyiv.
In 2024, the Kremlin adopted a revised nuclear doctrine, noting that any nation’s conventional attack on Russia that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. That threat was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal.
The revised doctrine also placed Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella. Putin has said that Moscow will retain control of its nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus, which borders Ukraine and NATO members Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, but would allow its ally to select the targets in case of conflict.
Drills come as Ukrainian drones spotted in the Baltics
The maneuvers are held amid an increase in drone activity in the Baltic nations. On Tuesday, a NATO jet shot down a Ukrainian drone over southern Estonia. Ukraine apologized for that “unintended incident,” without specifying what had happened.
On Wednesday, an emergency announcement about a drone flying over Belarus prompted residents of the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, including top officials and lawmakers, to take shelter and led to a brief closure of its airport.
Ukrainian drones targeting Russia’s Baltic ports and energy facilities have recently crossed or come down in NATO territory on several occasions. Amusingly, instead of blaming the source, Ukraine, Western officials blamed Russian electronic jamming of the drones.
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said Tuesday that Ukraine is preparing drone attacks against Russia from the territory of the Baltic countries and warned of retaliation It alleged Ukrainian military personnel had been deployed to Latvia and warned that the country’s membership in NATO wouldn’t protect it from “just retribution.” Latvian authorities said the allegation was not true.
Last month, the Russian Defense Ministry published a list of factories in Europe that it said were involved in producing drones and their components for Ukraine. It warned that attacks on Russia involving drones manufactured in Europe are fraught with “unpredictable consequences.”
Some commentators interpreted the bellicose statements from Moscow and this week’s exercise featuring short- and medium-range nuclear weapons capable of reaching targets in Europe as part of Kremlin efforts to discourage Western allies from bolstering support for Ukraine.
Asked what message the nuclear exercise was intended to send, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded that “any drills are intended to send a signal,” but wouldn’t elaborate.
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS COMMENTARIES
West Virginia Has America’s Highest Gas-Price Burden
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 06:50 PM
Americans are still paying elevated prices at the pump in 2026, but the biggest financial burden is falling on states with lower household incomes rather than the highest fuel prices.
This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, shows where gasoline is least affordable by comparing the cost of a standard 15-gallon fill-up against median weekly household income across all 50 states.
The data comes from SmartAsset and AAA, as of May 2026.
The Highest Gas Burdens Aren’t in California
West Virginia ranks as the state where gas prices hit the hardest, with a 15-gallon fill-up consuming 5.2% of median weekly household income.
West Virginia’s fuel prices are not especially high by national standards. Instead, lower household incomes mean a routine fill-up consumes a larger share of weekly earnings.
State
Gas price
Median weekly income
Price of fill-up (% of median weekly income)
Price of fill-up (% of weekly minimum wage)
West Virginia
$4.30
$1,233
5.2%
18.43%
Ohio
$4.89
$1,465
5.0%
16.65%
Michigan
$4.87
$1,468
5.0%
13.30%
Indiana
$4.83
$1,459
5.0%
24.97%
Mississippi
$3.88
$1,199
4.9%
20.08%
Kentucky
$4.22
$1,309
4.8%
21.82%
Louisiana
$3.90
$1,237
4.7%
20.16%
Nevada
$5.17
$1,646
4.7%
16.15%
Arkansas
$3.88
$1,260
4.6%
13.23%
Oregon
$5.25
$1,728
4.6%
13.09%
New Mexico
$4.16
$1,375
4.5%
13.01%
California
$6.10
$2,031
4.5%
13.54%
Alabama
$3.96
$1,352
4.4%
20.48%
Illinois
$4.93
$1,688
4.4%
12.33%
Oklahoma
$3.89
$1,342
4.3%
20.10%
Pennsylvania
$4.52
$1,573
4.3%
23.38%
Arizona
$4.74
$1,653
4.3%
11.73%
Maine
$4.40
$1,550
4.3%
10.93%
Montana
$4.32
$1,528
4.2%
14.94%
Washington
$5.67
$2,016
4.2%
12.40%
Wyoming
$4.30
$1,532
4.2%
22.23%
Wisconsin
$4.37
$1,572
4.2%
22.61%
Hawaii
$5.63
$2,043
4.1%
13.20%
Florida
$4.34
$1,577
4.1%
11.63%
Missouri
$3.97
$1,452
4.1%
9.93%
Tennessee
$3.99
$1,460
4.1%
20.66%
South Carolina
$4.00
$1,467
4.1%
20.70%
North Carolina
$4.08
$1,500
4.1%
21.09%
Idaho
$4.46
$1,646
4.1%
23.04%
Vermont
$4.42
$1,678
4.0%
11.48%
South Dakota
$4.06
$1,559
3.9%
12.86%
Alaska
$5.04
$1,940
3.9%
14.53%
Rhode Island
$4.38
$1,694
3.9%
10.95%
Kansas
$3.96
$1,532
3.9%
20.47%
Iowa
$3.95
$1,531
3.9%
20.43%
New York
$4.45
$1,741
3.8%
10.44%
Nebraska
$3.96
$1,549
3.8%
9.91%
North Dakota
$3.99
$1,579
3.8%
20.66%
Texas
$3.92
$1,617
3.6%
20.26%
Georgia
$3.85
$1,622
3.6%
19.92%
Delaware
$4.21
$1,775
3.6%
10.52%
Connecticut
$4.52
$1,948
3.5%
10.00%
Minnesota
$4.05
$1,767
3.4%
13.31%
Colorado
$4.44
$1,970
3.4%
10.98%
Utah
$4.39
$1,960
3.4%
22.71%
Virginia
$4.17
$1,868
3.4%
12.25%
New Hampshire
$4.34
$2,024
3.2%
22.46%
New Jersey
$4.42
$2,115
3.1%
10.40%
Maryland
$4.27
$2,087
3.1%
10.68%
Massachusetts
$4.34
$2,126
3.1%
10.85%
Other Midwestern and Southern states dominate the top 10, including Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky. In many of these states, long driving distances and limited public transit make gasoline a near-essential household expense.
High Gas Prices Don’t Always Mean High Burden
California has the highest gasoline prices in the country at roughly $6.10 per gallon, yet it ranks only 12th in overall burden. Hawaii and Washington also post some of America’s most expensive fuel prices but remain outside the top 10.
Higher household incomes help offset the cost of filling up. In California, for example, median weekly household income exceeds $2,000, significantly higher than in many states across the South and Midwest.
Minimum Wage Workers Face an Even Bigger Challenge
The burden becomes even more severe when measured against weekly minimum wage earnings. In Indiana, a single 15-gallon fill-up represents nearly 25% of a week’s minimum wage income. Pennsylvania, Idaho, and New Hampshire also rank among the highest by this measure.
Meanwhile, wealthier Northeastern states such as Massachusetts, Maryland, and New Jersey post some of the lowest overall burdens relative to household income. Stronger wages help cushion residents from volatile energy prices.
Germany’s natural gas storage facilities are the largest in Europe by far and are currently less than 30% full, with traders reluctant to buy gas at current price levels. Tomorrow they will likely pay more if any is still availed/
Dutch storage levels are even lower at just 12.5% full.
Ireland is also very short on supply and may well run out first.
How Europe intends to survive a tourist season is a mystery.
ROBERT
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1605 DOWN 0.0019
USA/ YEN 159.13 UP 0.244 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3422 DOWN 0.0011 OR 11 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3767 UP 0.0020 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 20 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 84.91 PTS OR 2.04%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 264.60 PTS OR 1.03%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.22%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 264.60 PTS OR 1.03%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 84.91 OR 2.04%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.22%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1,853.59 PTS OR 3.10%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4515.00
silver:$74.87
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 45.62 PLUS 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 71.01 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 43 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9920 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.670 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.620 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.271 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early THURSDAY MORNING: 99.23 UP 13 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.494% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.758% DOWN 2 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.032 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.555 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.875 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.1132 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1584 DOWN 0.0042 OR 42 basis points
USA/Japan: 15.255 UP 0.363 OR YEN IS DOWN 36 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.9860 DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.654 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS.
REAR VIEW: Reports claim that the final draft of US-Iran agreement has been reached with mediation of Pakistan, but gets ultimately denied; Trump says US will get Iran’s Uranium, Iran says otherwise; Mixed reporting over whether Pakistan Army Chief to visit Tehran; Rubio says some progress has been made in talks with Iran; NVDA slips despite earnings & guidance beat; Initial & continuing claims little changed; Philly Fed turns negative; S&P Flash PMI mixed; Aussie employment unexpectedly turns negative, u/e rate rises; Dismal French Flash PMI; US awards quantum-related names IBM and GFS.
COMING UP: Data: Japanese CPI (Apr), German GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun), GDP Final (Q1), Ifo Business Climate (May), UK Retail Sales (Apr), PSNB (Apr), Canadian Retail Sales (Mar), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (May). Events: BoC SLOS (May), Kevin Warsh Confirmation as Fed Chair. Speakers: ECB’s Lane; Fed’s Waller. Credit Ratings: Scope Ratings on China; Moody’s on Hungary, Portugal, the UK; S&P on Norway.
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
It was another choppy session dominated by contradictory geopolitical headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict. Ultimately, stocks closed higher, Treasury yields were predominantly lower, crude settled down from earlier highs, and the Dollar finished little changed. Cross-asset price action largely tracked swings in oil prices as markets reacted to shifting headlines around US-Iran negotiations.
Reports circulated that a final draft US-Iran agreement had been reached through Pakistani mediation and could be announced within hours, with Iranian media citing Al Arabiya TV. However, Al Arabiya later denied the report shortly before the closing bell. Meanwhile, there were several conflicting reports surrounding Iran’s enriched uranium, including whether it would remain in Iran or be transferred abroad.
According to Reuters and Politico, the two key sticking points remain Iran’s nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Pakistani Army Chief is no longer expected to travel to Tehran tonight, while Reuters reported that no deal has yet been reached, although negotiations have narrowed the gaps between both sides.
US data and Fed commentary once again generated little market reaction, with geopolitics and crude price swings continuing to dominate broader macro trade.
Nvidia traded lower by 1.8% despite a beat on Q1 earnings and Q2 revenue outlook. Semiconductors, however, finished the session higher (SMH +0.6%) as optimistic sentiment remained; Arm surged once again (ARM +16.2%) after more positive sell-side commentary.
Markets now await further clarity on negotiations to determine whether the recent de-escalation optimism can be sustained.
US
JOBLESS CLAIMS: Initial Jobless Claims remained low and stable in the week ending May 16th, falling marginally to 209k from 211k and below the 210k consensus. The four-week average declined to 202.5k from 204k. Continuing Claims rose slightly to 1.782mln from 1.776mln, although still below the 1.79mln forecast, while the four-week average eased to 1.773mln from 1.78mln. The unadjusted data totalled 185.6k, down 5.8k W/W, versus seasonal factors that anticipated a 3.4k decline. Within the state breakdown, Florida (-2.1k) and California (-1.1k) accounted for much of the decline, while Ohio (+800) and Missouri (+500) saw modest increases. Oxford Economics writes that “perhaps the most notable thing about claims data right now is how unremarkable they are”, highlighting that claims have remained in a narrow range for more than three months and have recently tracked below recent years despite conflict-related headwinds, elevated inflation and trade uncertainty. The consultancy added that “the labor market isn’t booming, but employers remain reluctant to reduce headcount.” Overall, the continued stability in claims data supports the Fed’s view that labour market conditions remain broadly resilient, allowing policymakers to maintain a greater focus on upside inflation risks.
BUILDING PERMITS/HOUSING STARTS: Building permits rose 5.8% in April to 1.442mln (exp. 1.40mln, prev. 1.363mln), while housing starts fell 2.8% to 1.465mln (exp. 1.41mln, prev. 1.502mln), a smaller drop than expected as a jump in multifamily starts drove the upside surprise. Oxford Economics said housing starts would need homebuilders to reduce their existing inventory of completed homes for sale to improve on a sustained basis. OxEco noted mortgage rates had risen back to late-March levels, which should weigh on new home sales in the months ahead.
PHILLY FED: Manufacturing activity weakened overall. The survey’s indicators for general activity (-0.4 from 26.7), new orders (-1.7 from +33) and shipments (4.9 from 34.0) all fell sharply in May. The employment index ticked up to -2.8 from -5.1, continuing to point to overall declines in employment. Both price indexes declined this month but remained elevated. Prices paid fell to 47.9 from 59.3, while prices received fell to 26.3 from 33.5. Firms continued to expect overall growth over the next six months, and most future indicators rose this month from already elevated readings, with the headline outlook rising to 53.2 from 40.8. Overall, the report showed slower activity in May, but firms were optimistic about the outlook. Employment improved marginally but remained negative, while prices eased but stayed positive.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 5+ TICKS LOWER AT 108-18
T-notes saw choppy trade on Thursday, with rates continuing to track the volatile crude price action. At settlement, 2-year +1.5bps at 4.072%, 3-year +0.7bps at 4.132%, 5-year -0.7bps at 4.237%, 7-year -1.0bps at 4.399%, 10-year -1.7bps at 4.568%, 20-year -3.3bps at 5.099%, 30-year -2.9bps at 5.093%.
THE DAY: Crude and yields fell early morning on reports that Pakistan’s Army Chief will travel to Tehran tonight as part of mediation efforts.
However, these moves did reverse after reports suggested Iran’s Supreme Leader ordered enriched Uranium to stay in Iran, supporting both crude and yields. Nonetheless, this report was subsequently denied by Al Jazeera, citing Iran, and Fox, citing the US. Trump stated that the US will get Iran’s Uranium, but Al Hadath took us back to where we began, noting the final decision from Iran’s supreme leader is to not hand over enriched Uranium.
Yields hit lows after ILNA Telegram’s account posted Al Arabiya TV with details of a final draft agreement between the US and Iran has been reached, seeing crude prices plummet with the report noting it is expected to be announced within the next few hours.
The reality is, there have been plenty of contradictory reports, and it remains to be seen whether a deal is really that close. Al Jazeera cites two sources, one saying negotiators are very close, but another said it is too early to say whether a serious, final agreement is in reach. Politico says there are still two major sticking points: 1) no nuclear weapons, and 2) opening the Strait of Hormuz. Al Hadath also reported that the Pakistani Army Chief will not travel to Tehran tonight. However, Al Jazeera says there is intense mediation activity, and they know the Pakistani Interior Minister is in Tehran. The Guardian also reported that Pakistan and Qatar have been pushing hard this week for a peace deal.
Data saw a limited reaction again. Continued claims remained low and stable, Housing starts and building permits saw a slight beat, with the Philly Fed showing weak current activity, but with firms optimistic about the outlook.
Fed speakers saw Barkin say policy is well-positioned, but he is not leaning towards overly focusing on risks to inflation or employment. Goolbsee, meanwhile, put more emphasis on the Fed’s inflation problem, and less on employment.
US to sell USD 69bln of 2-yr notes on May 26th, USD 28bln of reopened 2yr FRN and USD 70bln of 5-yr notes on May 27th, and USD 44bln of 7-yr notes on May 28th; all to settle on June 1st
Bills
US sold 4-week bills at high rate of 3.610%, B/C 2.60x; sold 8-week bills at a high rate 3.600%, B/C 2.77x
US to sell USD 25bln 27-day cash management bills on May 21st; to settle May 22nd
US to sell USD 85bln of 6-week bills, USD 77bln of 26-week bills, and USD 89bln of 13-wk bills on May 26th, all to settle May 28th.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Fed Pricing: Dec 19.9bps (prev. 21.4bps)
EFFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.62%), volumes at USD 119bln (prev. USD 119bln) on May 20th
SOFR at 3.50% (prev. 3.51%), volumes at USD 3.082tln (prev. USD 3.111tln) on May 20th
NY Fed RRP op demand at 3.28bln (prev. 24.87bln) across 9 counterparties (prev. 16) on May 21st
Treasury buyback (5-7 year, liquidity support, max USD 4bln): Accepts USD 300mln of 3.71bln offered; offer-to-cover 12.4x.
CRUDE
WTI (N6) SETTLED USD 1.91 LOWER AT USD 96.35/BBL; BRETT (N6) SETTLED USD 2.44 LOWER AT 102.58/BBL
The crude complex saw losses on Thursday as optimism over an end to the Middle-East conflict grew. Initial upside was unwound on ILNA reports, citing Al Arabiya TV that claims the final draft of the US-Iran agreement has been reached with mediation of Pakistan, expected to be announced within the next few hours (points listed below). The reporting followed US Secretary of State Rubio comments, who said Pakistanis will travel to Iran today; Rubio noted, let’s see if we can get a deal, and there are some signs some progress has been made in the talks, but don’t want to be too optimistic, and we’ll see where things head in the coming days. Before the above stories, the key reports were conflicting headlines around Iranian enriched uranium; Reuters initially reported that Supreme Leader Khamenei ordered enriched uranium to stay in Iran, suggesting a hardening of stance on nuclear stockpile. However, the White House later pushed back on this pushing back on this, as did Iran, with a senior Iranian official denying the news to Al Jazeera. Before settlement, Al Hadath reported that a high-level source familiar with the matter: The Iranian Supreme Leader’s final decision is not to hand over the enriched uranium to Washington. Regarding Trump on the matter, he said that the US will get Iran’s Uranium will likely destroy it – leaving the Uranium topic rather up in the air. WTI traded between USD 95.76-102.66/bbl and Brent USD 102.17-109.30/bbl.
ILNA reported draft US-Iran agreement, citing Al Arabiya TV:
This draft includes an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts.
The Parties mutually undertake to refrain from targeting infrastructure.
Freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is guaranteed under a joint monitoring mechanism.
Sanctions will be gradually lifted in exchange for Iran’s compliance with the terms of the deal.
Negotiations on outstanding issues shall begin within a maximum of seven days.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.17% at 7,446, NDX +0.20% at 29,357, DJI +0.55% at 50,291, RUT +0.93% at 2,843
SECTORS: Consumer Staples -1.63%, Energy -1.01%, Industrials -0.12%, Communication Services +0.01%, Real Estate +0.12%, Financials +0.21%, Technology +0.28%, Health +0.64%, Materials +0.73%, Consumer Discretionary +0.77%, Utilities +1.03%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.20% at 5,964, Dax 40 -0.33% at 24,657, FTSE 100 +0.11% at 10,443, CAC 40 -0.39% at 8,086, FTSE MIB -0.03% at 49,169, IBEX 35 -0.42% at 17,975, PSI -0.22% at 9,228, SMI +0.35% at 13,446, AEX +0.12% at 1,035.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
Nvidia (NVDA): Usual beat & raised guidance, but shares weighed on amid lofty investor expectations
Samsung Electronics’ largest union suspended a planned strike after reaching a tentative pay agreement
US reportedly set to award quantum computing firms $2bln and take equity stakes, WSJ reports; IBM set to receive $1bln, GFS $375mln; Other Cos. incl. QBTS, RGTI, INFQ
Walmart (WMT): Next Q EPS guidance light
Ralph Lauren (RL): Rev. beat & approves 10% dividend increase.
Elf Beauty (ELF): Top and bottom line topped expectations; to reverse some tariff-driven price increases amid consumer pressure.
Applied Digital (APLD): Signed a 15-year lease agreement with the same US-based hyperscaler from its Delta Forge 1 project for its new Polaris Forge 3 AI campus
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Sell.
Spotify (SPOT) said it now has 761mln MAUs and nearly 300mln subscribers, with the paying subscriber base described as more than double any other music service and driving almost two-thirds of all premium music streams on the platform. Spotify announced a deal with Universal Music Group (UMG) for licensing agreements for fan-made covers and remixes.
The White House has cancelled its planned ceremony for President Trump to sign a new executive order on AI and cybersecurity, per a note seen by Axios.
FX
DXY was little changed as geopolitical reporting was rampant, sending mixed signals on the progress of talks. The main move in FX was USD weakness on reports that a final draft of the US-Iran agreement has been reached with the mediation of Pakistan. That said, the moves were offset by other reports that the Pakistani army chief will not travel to Tehran tonight, a prospect, if realised, would diminish the chances of an imminent agreement being announced. Conflicting reports were seen on Iran’s stance on enriched uranium being transferred out of the country. Ultimately, events over the day were taken as a positive with crude settling ~USD 2/bbl lower. USD strength was initially present on the Reuters report that Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei ordered enriched uranium to stay in Iran; however, as oil faded due to claims of a US-Iran agreement, the dollar joined in the downside. In other news, initial and continuing claims were little changed from the prior week, Philly Fed Mfg showed an unexpected negative reading, and S&P Flash PMIs were mixed (mfg beat, svs miss); little reaction was seen to any of the data. DXY traded between 99.06-99.52
EUR was modestly weaker after dismal French PMIs. EUR/USD saw a move c.24 pips lower on the French figure, which marked the steepest contraction since late 2020, though pared some downside as German/EZ figures were not as bad as feared according to the indications from France. EUR/USD now trades around 1.1620, well off the 1.1576 lows, supported by USD weakness on said themes. ING earlier wrote, “The pair likely requires a persistent stream of positive Middle East headlines to stay supported”.
AUD/USD traded flat with upside limited after soft PMI and Labour market data. Employment showed a surprise contraction on the headline, and an uptick in the Unemployment Rate. In response, NAB later announced that it pushed back its next RBA rate hike forecast to August from June.
USA DATA RELEASE/
Renter Nation Returns? Multi-Family Unit Starts & Permits Soar In April
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 08:50 AM
On the back of a small uptick in homebuilder confidence (though still languishing)…
…Building Permits jumped notably (+5.8% MoM vs +2.5% exp) in preliminary April data (while Housing Starts dipped 2.8% MoM, though less than the 5.2% MoM decline expected)…
The pace of starts and permits on a SAAR basis has remained flat for four years…
Multi-family unit starts and permits soared in April…
As single-family home starts stagnate…
It appears builders believe that ‘Renter Nation’ is on its way back.
END
Jobless Claims Refuse To Show Any Signs Of AI Jobpocalypse
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 08:35 AM
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell to 209k last week (below expectations), continuing to show absolutely on signs of any labor market stress…
Source: Bloomberg
That is basically unchanged since 2021.
Continuing jobless claims ticked up modestly but remains below 1.8 million Americans (just off two year lows)…
Source: Bloomberg
So, despite the tsunami of headlines every day about the AI jobpocalypse, ‘hard’ data shows no signs of any pain yet (wait until the severance packages run dry)…
END
PMI
US PMIs Lead The World As Manufacturing Tops 4-Year Highs, Services Sink
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 09:54 AM
Following Japan’s ugly PMIs (Services lowest since March 2025) and Europe’s disaster (weakest composite EU PMI since late 2023)…
…with prices surging…
All eyes are on the US ‘soft’ survey data for signs of divergence (or contagion).
With US ‘hard’ data improving notably, the preliminary soft survey data for May was mixed with improved performance in manufacturing was countered by a sluggish service sector.
Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 50.9 (April: 51.0). 2-month low.
Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 55.3 (April: 54.5). 48-month high.
“The ‘flash’ PMI data for May recorded only modest growth of business activity as demand was again squeezed by a further spike in prices and jobs were cut as firms worried over rising costs and the economic outlook.
Coming on the heels of a subdued April reading, the May PMI indicates that the economy will struggle to manage annualized GDP growth of much more than 1% in the second quarter…
However, Williamson notes that even this subdued pace of growth may not last.
“On average, over the past three months order book growth has slowed to its weakest for two years, and a boost from precautionary stock building due to concerns over further price hikes and supply delays will not last forever.
Demand also looks set to cool further in response to rising prices.
“Firms’ costs have jumped higher at a pace not seen since the energy price shock of 2022 and are being passed on to customers in the form of sharply higher selling prices. The survey price gauges therefore indicate that inflation looks set to rise further just as the economy cools.”
Finally, while the composite numbers are not that encouraging, on a relative basis, US looks dominant…
Maybe trump was right about the impact of the war on everyone else? (Just don’t tell anyone who drives!)
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
THIS IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AS FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS LIKE CHINA AND JAPAN ARE SELLING USA TREASURIES. THE BIG QUESTION IS THIS;
WHO WILL STEP UP TO THE PLATE BY BUY USA DEBT?: ANSWER NOBODY!
We already knew that the bond market was starting to call bullshit on America’s fiscal and monetary policy. Now we know that foreign governments are dumping U.S. Treasuries, and China is leading the way…even while President Trump pals around with President Xi Jinping.
According to CNBC, foreign holdings of U.S. government debt fell sharply in March as central banks sold Treasuries to defend weakening currencies during the geopolitical and energy shock tied to the escalating Middle East conflict.
China reduced its Treasury holdings to roughly $652 billion, the lowest level since 2008. Japan, the single largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, also cut exposure aggressively. Overall foreign holdings dropped from approximately $9.49 trillion to $9.25 trillion in a single month.
That should deeply concern anyone paying attention to the structural fragility underneath the U.S. financial system.
For decades, the global economy has operated on a relatively simple arrangement. The United States issues the world’s reserve currency, foreign governments recycle trade surpluses into U.S. Treasuries, and America finances massive deficits because the rest of the world willingly absorbs its debt. That system only works as long as there is confidence in the dollar, confidence in the Federal Reserve, and confidence that U.S. government debt remains the safest and most liquid place on earth to park capital.
When major foreign holders begin reducing exposure during a period of rising inflation, exploding deficits, and growing fiscal instability, it creates a potentially dangerous chain reaction. And the timing for the world to be dumping treasuriers right now could not be worse.
Bonds are already under pressure because inflation is proving far stickier than policymakers expected. As I wrote last week, both CPI and PPI came in significantly hotter than anticipated, forcing markets to rapidly reassess the possibility that the Federal Reserve may actually need to raise rates again instead of cutting them.
Meanwhile, deficits continue spiraling, interest expense on the national debt keeps exploding higher, and the Treasury must issue enormous amounts of new debt simply to keep funding government spending. Now layer weakening foreign demand on top of all of that.
That combination is nasty. If foreign governments buy fewer Treasuries while supply continues surging, yields move higher. Higher yields tighten financial conditions across the entire economy. Mortgage rates stay elevated. Corporate refinancing becomes more expensive. Regional banks sitting on massive unrealized bond losses face renewed pressure. Commercial real estate weakens further. Consumers get squeezed harder.
And because Treasuries serve as the foundational collateral layer of the global financial system, instability there spreads everywhere else. This is why the liquidation story matters far beyond geopolitics.
China reducing Treasury exposure is not entirely new. The broader trend has been developing for years as Beijing slowly diversifies reserves away from direct dependence on U.S. assets. Whether through outright selling or indirect “shadow holdings” routed through financial centers like Belgium and Luxembourg, the direction has been fairly clear for a long time.
But Japan selling aggressively alongside China is where things become even more uncomfortable. Some of Japan’s selling is likely tied to defending the yen as energy shocks and rising oil prices pressure its economy. Japan imports the overwhelming majority of its energy, so a collapsing yen combined with surging import costs creates enormous strain domestically. Selling Treasuries gives Tokyo access to dollar liquidity it can use to intervene in currency markets and stabilize the yen before the situation spirals further.
Japan has spent decades as one of the most reliable buyers of U.S. debt. If even Tokyo is becoming less comfortable absorbing massive amounts of Treasuries while inflation remains elevated and deficits continue exploding, markets should pay attention. Japan may simply see the same thing the bond market increasingly sees: the United States is issuing debt at an unsustainable pace into an environment where inflation is no longer fully under control.
If that’s the case, that is not just a portfolio adjustment. That is a confidence signal. The uncomfortable reality is that the United States has become dangerously dependent on perpetual debt expansion at the exact moment global appetite for absorbing that debt is becoming less certain.
And this is where the Federal Reserve’s trap becomes even more severe. If inflation reaccelerates while Treasury demand weakens simultaneously, the Fed faces two terrible options: raise rates further to defend credibility and contain inflation, risking deeper stress across banks, housing, private credit, equities, and the broader economy or step back in with liquidity programs and money printing to stabilize markets and absorb debt issuance, effectively reigniting the same inflation problem they spent years trying to contain.
That is the corner policymakers have backed themselves into after years of artificially suppressed rates, endless stimulus, and the assumption that global demand for U.S. assets would remain infinite regardless of fiscal discipline.
The most dangerous part of this story is that markets still seem unwilling to fully process what sustained deterioration in Treasury demand would actually mean. Investors have spent decades treating U.S. government debt as the unquestioned risk free foundation of the financial system.
But when foreign governments begin reducing exposure while inflation stays elevated and deficits spiral, that assumption starts getting tested in real time.
And once confidence in the system itself begins eroding, things can unravel far faster than policymakers would like to admit.
END
JAPAN SALES OF USA TREASURIES”
Japan sold approximately $47.7 billion in US Treasuries in March 2026 (the most recent month with full official data available).
ticdata.treasury.govKey Details (from US Treasury TIC data):
February 2026: Japan held $1,239.3 billion.
March 2026: Holdings dropped to $1,191.6 billion.
Net change: -$47.7 billion (a roughly 3.8–4% decline). ticdata.treasury.gov
This was part of a broader decline in foreign holdings of US Treasuries in March. Japan remains the largest foreign holder.
The bond market is beginning to force reality onto Washington, and it may ultimately force an end to the Iran war long before politicians or diplomats are willing to admit it.
For months, investors have focused on missiles, retaliation headlines, oil chokepoints, and the possibility of a broader regional escalation from the Iran War. During the geopolitical noise, I urged readers not to overlook stress in financial markets that was happening before the war even started, namely in places like private credit and subprime auto lending. I called these “real crises” hiding behind record highs while “investors” chase gamma squeezes higher in an ongoing distortion feedback loop that is making things look far better than they are under the surface.
And now, beneath all the geopolitical noise, a much more serious, harder to ignore crisis is unfolding. As Cypher says in The Matrix:
“Fasten your seat belt Dorothy, ’cause Kansas is going bye-bye.”
This crisis is in the Treasury market. Bond yields are moving sharply higher, and they are sending a message that policymakers can no longer afford to ignore: the financial system is becoming unstable under the weight of war spending, massive deficits, persistent inflation, and a debt load that was already unsustainable before this conflict began.
The bond market does not give a flying fuck about political narratives, gamma squeezes, meme stocks, retail investors or any other ticky tacky end-around style loopholes that continue to push stocks higher. It cares about math, fiscal policy and monetary policy. And the math is getting ugly very quickly.
The 10-year Treasury yield is arguably the single most important price in global finance because virtually every major asset class is built on top of it. Mortgage rates, commercial real estate valuations, private equity models, corporate borrowing costs, equity multiples, venture capital, and government financing itself all depend on stable Treasury markets. When yields rise too quickly, everything starts repricing at once. That is why this matters so much more than the daily moves in the stock market.
Washington understands this, even if it refuses to say it publicly.
The United States can survive political embarrassment overseas, but it simply cannot survive a disorderly Treasury market.
That is why I believe the bond market is eventually going to force a few things. First, a de-escalation of the Iran conflict. The priority now is no longer “victory” or even geopolitical strategy. The priority is restoring stability before bond yields spiral completely out of control. A prolonged war that keeps oil prices elevated while deficits explode higher is simply incompatible with a heavily indebted financial system already struggling under the burden of high interest rates.
The problem is that America entered this conflict from an extraordinarily weak fiscal position to begin with. This is not World War II, when the country had a young population, industrial dominance, low debt levels, and decades of economic expansion ahead of it. Today the US government is already running deficits approaching $2 trillion annually during what is supposedly a normal economic environment. Interest expense on the national debt has already become one of the largest items in the federal budget. Now add war spending, weakening foreign demand for Treasuries, rising commodity prices, and higher refinancing costs, and the entire situation starts looking dangerously unstable.
This is where the inflation problem becomes unavoidable.
War has always been inflationary, but not just because of oil shocks or supply chain disruptions. The deeper issue is debt creation itself. Wars are financed through borrowing, and borrowing at these levels increasingly requires central bank intervention one way or another. The process is actually very simple: war creates debt, debt pressures the financial system, and eventually the system responds through some combination of money creation, currency debasement, and financial repression.
That is exactly what the bond market is beginning to anticipate right now.
Ironically, as I’ve predicted the past week, before the Federal Reserve eventually steps in to suppress yields, we may actually see another round of rate hikes first. If oil prices remain elevated and inflation expectations continue rising alongside Treasury yields, the Fed may feel forced to tighten policy again simply to preserve credibility and prevent inflation psychology from becoming entrenched. If that doesn’t work, I’ve predicted that the Fed will simply start bullshitting its inflation numbers.
In other words, the system may briefly attempt to defend the dollar before ultimately surrendering to debt realities. That creates the possibility of a brutal stagflationary environment where growth slows, markets weaken, borrowing costs rise, and inflation remains stubbornly elevated at the same time.
For years, markets became addicted to near-zero rates and endless liquidity. Entire sectors of the economy were built on the assumption that capital would remain permanently cheap. But when Treasury yields rise meaningfully, everything changes. Leveraged speculation becomes harder to sustain. Corporate refinancing becomes more expensive. Housing affordability deteriorates further. Commercial real estate faces additional stress. Equity valuations compress. The “everything bubble” suddenly starts losing oxygen and all the shit I’ve written about that I think will blow up — including all 10 area of the market I highlighted here — will implode.
And once again, the people who get hurt the most will not be the financial elite, it will be ordinary Americans. You heard it from the former bartender turned Substack shit-talker first…read this slowly:
Mom and pop savers are about to get squeezed from every direction at once. Their wages will fail to keep up with inflation. Their borrowing costs will rise. Their credit card rates will stay elevated. Their insurance, food, energy, and housing costs will continue climbing. Their retirement portfolios will become more volatile. And eventually, after enduring all of that pain, they will likely watch policymakers step in to rescue the bond market and financial system through another round of monetary intervention that further destroys the purchasing power of their savings.
Every cycle ends the same way. Wall Street and the financial system are treated as too important to fail, while ordinary citizens absorb the consequences through inflation and currency debasement. Policymakers will present future interventions as necessary for “financial stability,” but stability for whom? Stability for leveraged institutions, overextended governments, and asset markets dependent on artificially suppressed rates.
Meanwhile, the average family gets punished twice. First through inflation, then through the policies used to contain the damage caused by inflation.
And make no mistake, if yields continue climbing, the Fed and Treasury will eventually intervene in some form. Maybe they will not officially call it yield curve control at first. Maybe it arrives through stealth quantitative easing, emergency liquidity facilities, Treasury buyback programs, bank regulatory changes, or coordinated purchases through the financial system. But the end result will be the same: suppress long-term yields because the debt burden has become too large for markets to absorb naturally.
At current debt levels, genuinely free market interest rates are politically and financially impossible. The bond market is beginning to expose that reality.
That is also why I am becoming bullish again on gold, silver, and mining stocks after stepping away from them earlier this year following their enormous run in 2025. If the Fed ultimately chooses to suppress yields while inflation remains structurally elevated, precious metals become one of the clearest beneficiaries. Gold and silver perform best when confidence in fiat systems deteriorates and when governments prioritize debt sustainability over currency stability. I’ve long said I think they will have a sharp fall lower on the initial deleveraging, then probably double off their near term bottom in short order once the Fed’s liquidity starts hitting the market.
And that is exactly the direction this appears to be heading.
The Iran war may end sooner than many expect, not because global leaders suddenly become responsible, but because the bond market is forcing them into a corner. Financial instability is becoming the greater threat. Policymakers now face an impossible balancing act between inflation, debt servicing costs, economic slowdown, and geopolitical conflict.
Something will have to give. Historically, when governments reach this stage, they choose to protect the debt market and sacrifice the currency.
There is little reason to believe this time will be any diff
Obamacare is one big total mess!!
(zerohedge)
Obamacare Enrollment Expected To Drop By Nearly Five Million As Costs Surge
Enrollment in the Affordable Care Act marketplace is projected to fall by nearly 5 million people this year as rising premiums and higher deductibles force many Americans to reconsider whether they can still afford health insurance coverage, according to a new analysis from healthcare nonprofit KFF.
The report estimates ACA enrollment could decline from 22.3 million participants in 2025 to roughly 17.5 million this year, representing a drop of more than 20 percent.
At the same time, Americans who remain enrolled are paying substantially more out of pocket. According to the analysis, average deductibles have climbed by more than $1,000, while monthly premium payments have increased by an average of $65.
“No matter how you slice it, people are paying more,” said Cynthia Cox, who co-authored the report.
The sharp enrollment decline comes after the expiration of enhanced COVID-era subsidies that had artificially lowered costs for many Obamacare enrollees over the past several years. Without those subsidies, many middle-income Americans are now struggling to keep up with rising monthly payments.
KFF found that middle-income Americans were among the most likely to drop their coverage. Many earn too much to qualify for the remaining low-income subsidies but not enough to comfortably absorb the higher costs now hitting the marketplace.
The ACA marketplace, once promoted as a cornerstone of Democrat healthcare policy, has become increasingly important for gig workers, farmers, ranchers, hairstylists, and self-employed Americans who do not receive employer-sponsored coverage.
According to the report, many consumers were automatically renewed into plans from the previous year, only to discover that costs had risen dramatically after the subsidies expired. In many cases, Americans initially kept their coverage before dropping it later in the year once the monthly bills became unaffordable.
“People are trying to hang on to their health insurance coverage any way they can, even if that means they have a deductible of $7,000,” Cox said.
The report found that enrollment declines occurred across most states, although states operating their own healthcare exchanges generally retained more participants than states relying on the federal marketplace.
The Trump administration has argued that some of the enrollment decline stems from efforts to remove fraud and improper enrollments from the ACA system. Federal officials have not yet released final 2026 enrollment figures.
KFF had previously projected that premiums could more than double after the COVID-era subsidies ended. The new analysis found that premiums instead rose by an average of 58 percent, partly because many Americans switched into cheaper plans with significantly higher deductibles and reduced coverage.
The rising costs and shrinking enrollment are expected to become a major issue heading into the midterm elections as voters increasingly focus on inflation, affordability, and broader economic pressures.
Cox suggested insurers may now be adjusting to the post-subsidy market environment, potentially reducing the likelihood of another major premium spike next year.
“I’m hopeful that this could be a one-time market correction,” she said.
end
this should be fascinating to watch
New Fed Chair Pledges ‘Regime Change’ To Fight Inflation – Here’s What That Could Mean In Practice
Newly confirmed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, pledging new tactics to fight inflation, faces an uphill battle to keep rising prices in check.
At his April 21 Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh called for “a regime change in the conduct of policy” at the Fed under former chair Jerome Powell, whose tenure saw annual inflation exceed 8 percent during the Biden administration and has failed since 2021 to keep inflation below its target.
“Once you let inflation take hold in the economy, it’s more expensive and harder to bring it down, and so the fatal policy error going back four or five years is still a legacy that we’re dealing with,” Warsh stated. “Hard-working Americans are no doubt feeling it.”
Americans are suffering as price increases outpace wages. And as of April, the inflation rate of 3.8 percent remains persistently above the 2 percent target set by the Federal Reserve.
What is the new Fed chair’s plan to get inflation under control? Analysts predict that he will bring a different approach, which will include reducing the Fed’s massive $6.8 trillion bond holdings, prioritizing interest-rate actions over quantitative easing, and focusing on the money supply over other metrics.
“Warsh is likely going to pursue a smaller Fed balance sheet and try to use this ‘tightening’ as a bargaining chip to get the Federal Open Market Committee to lower short-term rates,” Chris Whalen, investment banker and former Fed staffer, told The Epoch Times. “His comments on the disaster of quantitative easing are quite clear.”
The Legacy of Cheap Dollars
Except for a brief interlude during President Donald Trump’s first term, the Fed has pursued a cheap-money strategy since the mortgage crisis of 2008–09, keeping its benchmark short-term interest rate—the federal funds rate—near zero, and only raising rates in 2022 when inflation was approaching double digits. Simultaneously, the Fed pursued an experimental policy called quantitative easing (QE), in which it created money to buy bonds from money-center banks, flooding the U.S. economy with dollars.
Between 2008 and 2022, the Fed accumulated $8 trillion in new financial assets on its balance sheet, effectively transforming it into one of the world’s largest asset managers and the largest single owner of U.S. Treasuries. Warsh has been an outspoken critic of quantitative easing, leading many economists to predict he will try to reverse this policy and shrink the Fed’s balance sheet.
During his confirmation hearing, he stated that “the Fed has an interest rate tool and a balance sheet tool … The balance sheet tool disproportionately helps those with financial assets; the interest rate tool hits the entire economy.”
While QE and low interest rates boosted demand in the wake of the mortgage collapse and pandemic lockdowns, they also drove up asset prices—notably stocks, bonds, and houses—to the benefit of wealthier Americans. Simultaneously, living standards fell for many Americans, whose dollars have lost more than 20 percent of their value over the past five years.
“The primary driver of inflation is the Fed’s expansion of the money supply, which the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh has addressed numerous times,” Julia Cartwright, economist with the American Institute for Economic Research, told The Epoch Times.
Between 2020 and 2022, the Fed injected approximately $6.4 trillion in new money into the economy to finance COVID stimulus payments, she said, and about 29 percent of America’s entire money supply today has been created since January 2020.
“Compounding this, the Iran conflict has choked off the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day and a fifth of global LNG trade, driving up energy, fertilizer, plastics, food, and virtually every input price across the economy,” Cartwright said.
Follow the Money Supply
While the Iran war and tariffs have driven up prices, Steve Hanke, professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University who served on President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, maintained that inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon, a matter of too much money chasing too few goods.
“To put the inflation genie back in the bottle, the Fed must dump the post-Keynesian economic models it relies on and start paying attention to the quantity theory of money and the money supply, broadly measured,” Hanke told The Epoch Times.
“The Fed should announce that it is going to target the growth rate in the money supply that is consistent with hitting its two-percent-per-year inflation target,” he said. “Based on the quantity theory of money, that would require the rate of growth in M2 to be around 6 percent per year.”
The M2 measurement of the money supply includes cash, bank deposits, and funds that are readily convertible to cash, such as certificates of deposit and money market funds. During America’s low-inflation period, between 2008 and 2020, the annual growth rate in the money supply (M2) was 6.11 percent, Hanke said, and inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), averaged 1.77 percent.
Indeed, Warsh has indicated that he will focus on different metrics to measure and control inflation, beyond short-term price fluctuations.
“What I’m most interested in is: What is the underlying inflation rate—not what is the one-time change in prices because of a change in geopolitics or change in beef,” Warsh told senators at his confirmation hearing.
The Power of the Supply Side
What can the Trump administration do to help the Fed fight inflation? Economists call for supply-side initiatives, such as continuing deregulation, lowering tariffs, and boosting energy supply, as well as cutting government spending.
“Deficit financing pressures the Fed to expand the money supply and keeps interest rates higher than necessary,” Cartwright said.
She also advocated for a hands-off approach to private industry, despite the recent stakes the Trump administration has taken in companies like Intel.
“In a functioning economy, business compete primarily by bringing prices down—the more competition, the lower the prices and the better off consumers are,” Cartwright said. “The most persistent and under-appreciated source of higher prices is government interference in that competition through subsidies, preferential corporate deals, tariffs, and industrial policy that substitutes Washington’s judgment for the market’s.”
Lastly, economists say, politicians should let the Fed focus on fighting inflation rather than pressuring Fed officials to cut interest rates before inflation is tamed.
“The best course of action for the Trump administration to take would be to go radio silent on monetary policy,” Hanke said. “Do what President Reagan did with [then-Fed chair] Paul Volcker: Reagan gave Volcker the monetary policy reins and left him alone.”
END
WALMART TUMBLING
warns low income consumers are drowning!
Walmart Tumbles On Disappointing Guidance, Warns Low-Income Consumers Drowning
Thursday, May 21, 2026 – 09:10 AM
Extending concerns about US consumer weakness – now that the bumper OBBBA tax refund period is over – after yesterday’s earnings by Home Depot and Target, this morning Walmart reported Q1 earnings (the last big company to report, rounding out earnings season) and warned that fuel costs are squeezing the company’s bottom line and could lead to higher prices for shoppers.
In the latest quarter, the world’s largest retailer said comparable sales in US stores rose 4.1%, excluding fuel, in the latest quarter, slightly better than the 4.0% Wall Street analysts were expecting. That was the good news; the bad news is that Walmart also forecast adjusted profit for the second quarter that missed analysts’ expectations.
The results show that the company continues to gain market share across income levels with its focus on low prices, fast delivery and wide assortment. But the emphasis on affordability is facing pressure as inflation accelerates and the conflict in Iran drives up fuel prices.
Here is a snapshot of what WMT just reported, starting with the highlights:
Revenue $177.75 billion, +7.3% y/y, beating estimates of $175.06 billion
Walmart-only US stores comparable sales ex-gas +4.1%, estimate +4%
Sam’s Club US comparable sales ex-gas +3.9%, estimate +3.59%
Adjusted EPS 66c vs. 61c y/y, in line with exp. 66c
Gross margin 24.3%, in line with exp. 24.3%
Going down the line:
Change in US E-Commerce sales +26%, estimate +18.6%
Operating cash flow $4.74 billion, -12% y/y
Adjusted operating income $7.67 billion, estimate $7.69 billion
US e-commerce sales grew 26% during the quarter, fueling growth in the company’s biggest market. Sales of grocery and general merchandise rose mid single-digits. General merchandise, which consists of apparel, electronics and other discretionary items, gained the most share in five years.
Walmart also said that transactions at Walmart US rose 3%, while average ticket was up 1.1%, which means that WMT is still eating much of the input costs and making up for its with traffic. That however, will change very soon as the company revealed in its earnings call.
Walmart reported strong growth in grocery and general merchandise categories; partially offset by 100 bps headwind from maximum fair pricing legislation in pharmacy. Broad-based share gains across categories and income tiers led by upper-income households.
“The high-income consumer is spending with confidence in many categories, whereas the low-income consumer, we can tell, is more budget-conscious, trying to navigate certain financial distress,” Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said in an interview with Bloomberg News. During the quarter, sales slowed somewhat in April after the Easter holiday. Higher tax refunds likely muted the impact of rising gas prices, though that’s abating, Rainey said. Prices rose 1.2% during the quarter and they could increase further if fuel prices stay where they are, he added, although that would surely lead to reduced traffic.
Translation: if it weren’t for upper income consumers, who are forced to trade down to discounters such as Walmart, earnings would have been a disaster.
And nowhere was this more obvious than in the company’s guidance, because while Q1 earnings were solid, the reason the stock is selling off sharply in premarket trading is the company’s disappointing forecast:
Second quarter forecast:
Sees adjusted EPS 72c to 74c, both below the median estimate of 75c
Sees net sales at constant currencies +4% to +5%
Sees operating income at constant currencies up 7% to 10%
2027 full-year forecast
Still sees adjusted EPS $2.75 to $2.85, below the median estimate $2.92
Still sees net sales at constant currencies +3.5% to +4.5%
Walmart, which is viewed as an economic barometer due to its large size and footprint across the US and other markets, was the latest confirmation that the “lower half” of the K-shaped economy continues to sink, and it is only the upper half (that is increasingly shopping at WalMart) which is keeping the retailer afloat.
While spending has largely held up in recent years, consumers have become increasingly selective with their purchases. Good deals and unique products can still attract buyers.
But the biggest wildcard is that the higher tax refunds this year have given families some extra cash, but this benefit is now fading fast as we explained a month ago. While most prices of general goods haven’t risen as operators move existing inventory, this could change as the war drags on.
There’ more: fuel weighed on Walmart’s profit margin in the quarter, as the company absorbed “virtually the entirety” of the increases during the period, Rainey said. The company is prioritizing keeping prices low, with the number of discounts rising 20% from a year ago. That said, Reiney warned of potential higher retail price inflation in Q2 and H2 if the current elevated cost environment persists.
“It’s tough on very short notice to be able to navigate a cost headwind like that,” he said. While Walmart will be able to manage through it, he expects to see an equal or larger challenge related to fuel in the current quarter.
Rainey said that the number of gas gallons customers bought at Walmart stations fell below 10 for first time since 2022; he added that the decline in gas buying is sign of financial stress.
Walmart has consistently posted stronger results than many competitors, raising investors’ expectations and pushing the company’s forward PE to an insane 45x, a multiple that will soon get a painful reminder of what happens to multiples during consumer recessions.
Walmart’s cautious narrative echoes commentary from big-box peers Target Corp. and Home Depot which both signaled this week that consumers are staying resilient although purchases are slowing. Kraft Heinz, McDonald’s and other companies have also struck a cautious tone recently. The past year has been a roller coaster for consumer-facing companies, first with President Trump’s expansive, on-off tariffs, that in some cases roiled operations, and now with the ongoing geopolitical conflicts threatening to dampen demand.
The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer has said it seeks to gain market share during challenging economic times by focusing on value and essentials like groceries. Delivery and other online services have expanded Walmart’s base of clients to include wealthier shoppers. Advertising and other businesses are also contributing to profit growth and giving the company more room to further invest in lowering prices and improving store operations.
In particular, fast deliveries have been a growth engine, and the company’s efforts to make inroads into the fashion market are gaining traction. Walmart has also expanded the selection of merchandise on its marketplace of third-party vendors.
The company’s shares tumbled more than 3% in premarket trading in New York. The stock has risen 17% so far this year as of Wednesday’s close. Shares of Walmart’s peers, including Target and Kroger Co., also fell in premarket trading on Thursday.
The Water Economics Of Data Centers Vs. Almond Farms & Golf Courses
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 07:40 PM
A recent Gallup poll shows that nearly 70% of Americans oppose the construction of a data center in their communities, highlighting the rise of local resistance movements against hyperscaler buildouts. This resistance is driven by concerns over skyrocketing power bills, the destruction of farmland as it is transformed into industrial-scale AI infrastructure, and fears that data centers will drain local resources, particularly water.
It’s no surprise that data center resistance is only gaining steam and will likely accelerate from here, as tech bros on the All-In podcast recently sounded the alarm. This resistance is emerging not just as power bills explode and water scarcity fears mount, but also as corporate America unleashes the “white-collar purge,” with human labor swapped for GPUs. Meta was the latest to announce rising AI adoption alongside a new round of layoffs.
Water has become a flashpoint in data center debates, as some of these facilities can use 5 million gallons of water every day, as much as 16,000-plus average U.S. households, according to Environmental Protection Agency estimates.
There is also the extraordinary amount of power required to run the chip stacks, which consumes millions of additional gallons of water – more than the water used for cooling.
Hyperscalers are set to deploy $700 billion in capex this year to build out data centers and key AI infrastructure products, suggesting that local resistance nationwide will only continue to build as tech bros search for alternative options (low-Earth orbit and or residential backyards). Permitting denials and other issues may delay or block nearly half of data center projects this year.
However, on the subject of water, critics of data centers often fail to point out – especially in California – that agriculture also consumes a tremendous amount of water.
X user Smirkley compared the economics of a 5-gallon water-cooler jug, arguing that 5 gallons of water generates about $132 in economic output in data centers, but only about 2 cents in almonds.
Yet where is the outrage here?
Here is Smirkley’s math:
Data centers: $529.1 billion ÷ 20 billion gallons × 5 = $132.28 per 5 gallons
California almonds: $5.66 billion ÷ 1.59 trillion gallons × 5 = 1.78 cents per 5 gallons
Smirkley’s point is that AI infrastructure produces far more economic output per gallon than almonds.
“Anti-data-center luddites may be worse than anti-nuclear activists. It is the same emotional panic, but even dumber somehow,” the X user noted, adding, “Almonds grown in the U.S. use 80x more water than every American data center combined. This is the difference between an 8 oz. glass and a 5-gallon jug.”
“Data centers aren’t stealing your water. Even if the total water draw of data centers triples by 2030, they’d require just 8% of the water consumed by American golf courses.@dodgeblake interviewed @AndyMasley, the man who’s been debunking AI water doomerism,” outlet Pirate Wires wrote on X.
Threatens to Retaliate Beyond Middle East if US Attacks – BBG Iran’s speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the country made the “best use of the ceasefire opportunity” to rebuild its capabilities, and must “strengthen readiness” for possible attacks… “if aggression against Iran is repeated, the regional war that had been promised will this time extend beyond the region,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Wednesday. On Wednesday Trump said he was “in no hurry” to reach a deal with Iran…. Trump said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would “do whatever I want him to do.”…
Trump: US In ‘Final Stages’ of Talks with Iran – Pool Report – ‘We’ll See What Happens’ with Iran
New Iran peace proposal triggers tense Trump-Netanyahu call – Axios A revised peace memo was drafted by Qatar and Pakistan with input from the other regional mediators to try to bridge the gaps between the U.S. and Iran, the sources said. It comes with Trump vacillating over ordering a massive strike on Iran and holding out for a deal. Netanyahu is highly skeptical about the negotiations and wants to resume the war to further degrade Iran’s military capabilities and weaken the regime by destroying its critical infrastructure…. The goal of the new effort is to get more tangible commitments from the Iranians over steps regarding their nuclear program, and more specifics from the U.S. as to how frozen Iranian funds will be gradually released, an Arab official said… Two Israeli sources said the two leaders were in disagreement about the way forward, while the U.S. source briefed on the call said “Bibi’s hair was on fire after the call.“… https://www.axios.com/2026/05/20/trump-netanyahu-call-iran-peace-plan
Axios’ @BarakRavid:Trump told Netanyahu that the mediators were working on a “letter of intent” that both the U.S. and Iran would sign to formally end the war and launch a 30-day period of negotiations on issues like Iran’s nuclear program and opening of the Strait of Hormuz…
Trump gives Iran another chance after heated White House clash with Vance A fierce debate ensues at the White House with the president approving continued talks with Iran despite opposition from senior officials. Vice President Vance and the envoys pushed for an initial deal, while the defense and foreign secretaries demanded pressure and a strike. At the same time, Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Emirati leadership backed a hard line, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar prefer to avoid escalation…Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also joined the discussion and backed Vance’s position… https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/05/20/trump-gives-iran-another-chance-after-heated-white-house-clash-with-vance/
@MattWhitlock: Ending the war and THEN holding formal negotiations about Iran’s nuclear program – isn’t that the offer we laughed out of the room over a month ago? What happens when those negotiations inevitably fall apart because we’ve given up our leverage – we UNDO the letter of intent?
Babylon Bee: White House Insists High Gas Prices Are Small Price to Pay for Accomplishing Nothing in Iran (Trump better realize that when you lose the Babylon Bee, you are in deep doodoo!)
@DBalazada: The Secret Deal Between Iran and Pakistan • Pakistan is facing a deep economic crisis with over $100 billion in foreign debt • According to my sources, Tehran and Islamabad reached understandings under which Pakistan would help Iran secure a favorable deal. In return, Iran would help Pakistan deal with its debt using the massive funds expected to flow after sanctions relief and a future agreement. @c14israel @aghplt: Americans, after receiving Iran’s feedback, have proposed that the “end of the war across all fronts,” “lifting of the U.S. blockade on the Strait of Hormuz,” “opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran with tariffs and the maritime route preferred by Iran,” “release of 25% of Iran’s frozen assets _approximately $25 billion_,” “exemption for Iran’s oil sales for 30 days,” and the main phase of negotiations—namely “removal of 400 kg of uranium from Iran _in the best case, shipment to a third country_” and “acceptance of Iran’s right to 3.67% enrichment (unlikely to be accepted by the U.S. in the final phase)” and “closure of nuclear facilities _excluding the Tehran reactor, solely for medical purposes_”—be signed all at once by Iran! Iran says all phases proposed by the U.S. should be implemented for verification over 30 days, so that Iran can both sell its oil and be persuaded to engage in nuclear negotiations! P.S.: 1. There is a serious disagreement over nuclear issues; the “400 kg of uranium” is Israel’s dictatorial red line for America! Iran won’t hand over 400 kg of uranium, it definitely wants enrichment, and it won’t suspend it for 20 years. Iran has not agreed to sending 400 kg of uranium to a third country _China and Russia_, and America hasn’t either—it wants it itself. This is the critical breaking point of the agreement. Iran views negotiations on the “nuclear dossier” as separate from the “Strait of Hormuz reopening dossier” and “ending the war”! 2. Iran and America disagree on the phasing of the agreement; Iran won’t agree all at once, and America is seeking an all-at-once agreement! 3. America is not committed to the texts and axes sent; the mentioned axes, despite having a serious gap from Iran’s conditions, won’t even be implemented by America! 4. America won’t lift any sanctions; at best, a time-limited suspension might be Iran’s part in the agreement. 5. Even assuming an agreement with America, there’s no guarantee against high-level assassinations by Israel!
WSJ Editorial Board: Trump Reaches an Iran Crossroads He wants the war to end, but the regime offers him only bad deals.
Stock rallied robustly in early trading on Wednesday led by Fangs and AI related issues. Bonds staged a sharp rebound rally, and Nvidia’s results were due after the close. So, the usual suspects ignored Iran’s threats and intransigence and got jiggy on stocks.
ESMs fluctuated between modest gains and moderate losses from their 8:00 ET opening on Tuesday night until they broke higher after 4:00 ET. After plodding to 7416.25 at 8:35 ET, ESMs had an A-B-C decline to 7376.75 at 10:13 ET. Conditioned dip buyers and traders playing for the second hour reversal got busy. ESMs zoomed to a daily high of 7458.00 (+20.00) at 11:16 ET.
Nvidia opened 2 points higher but quickly rescinded the entire rally and posted a modest loss at 9:39 ET. The usual suspects aggressively buying the dip and pushed NVDA to a daily high of two 226.13 (+5.52, +2.5%) at 11:16 ET. NVDA then rolled over. After a decline to 7424.00 at 12:35 ET, ESMs steadily but lamely plodded to 7455.00 at 15:39 ET. They then eased down to 7445.00 at 16:00 ET.
BBG: Fed Minutes Show More Officials Warned of Rate Hike Scenario A majority of Federal Reserve officials warned the central bank would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation continued to run persistently above their 2% target. Many officials called for the Fed to drop its easing bias and signal its next move could be an interest rate increase. The vast majority of participants noted an increased risk that inflation would take longer return to the committee’s 2% objective than they had previous expected… https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20260429.pdf
It’s insanely idiotic or abject lying for Fed officials to claim that “if inflation continued to run persistently above their 2% target” we might have to hike rates when the fact is inflation has been above 2% for 5 years, 2 months!
@AJENews: US President Donald Trump says Washington will not accept “a rogue state” hosting hostile foreign military and “terror” activity near US territory, warning against such operations “just 90 miles from the American homeland”.
Positive aspects of previous session Bonds staged a sharp rebound rally. Gasoline and oil got hammered. Stocks rallied on bonds and euphoric expectations for NVDA’s results.
Negative aspects of previous session Precious metals rallied moderately.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is Bibi losing trust and patience with Trump?
First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour:Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7408.71 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7435.69 (11:16 ET); 7357.46 (10:13 ET)
Prosecutor charged for allegedly emailing self sealed Jack Smith Trump report veiled as cake recipes – The Justice Department has identified prosecutor as Carmen Mercedes Lineberger, the managing assistant U.S. Attorney of the Fort Pierce branch of the United States Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida… Lineberger has been charged with two counts of theft of government money or property; the destruction, alteration or falsification of records in federal investigations; and with the concealment, removal or mutilation of public records. The charges against Lineberger were filed in the Northern District of Florida. She pleaded not guilty on Wednesday… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/pro-dei-prosecutor-charged-over-illegally-emailing-herself-jack-smiths-sealed
Nvidia Results: EPS 1.87 and Revenue $81.62B; EPS 1.78 and Revenue $79.186B expected. Data center revenue $75.2B, $73.48B exp. NVDA increased its share buyback authorization by $80.0B and boosted its quarterly dividend to .25 from 0.01. NVDA sees Q2 revenue of $89.18B to $92.82B.
Nvidia tumbled to 216.25 at 16:22 ET because its results were well below whisper numbers (the results analysts really expect). But NVDA jumped to 226.95 at 16:30 on the $80B buyback increase.
Today – Equity futures are down on Wednesday night because Nvidia is up only modestly. Stocks will trade on Nvidia, whose trend depends on traders great and small buying the hype and AI Bubble.
ESMs are -34.75; NQMs are -207.50; WTI oil is +$1.27; gasoline is +2.57¢; USMs are -6/32 at 20:25 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6959; 100-day MA: 6928; 150-day MA: 6880; 200-day MA: 6796 DJIA 50-day MA: 48,111;100-day MA: 48,590; 150-day MA: 48,190; 200-day MA: 47,544 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (7432.97 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6658.09 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is postive and MACD is negative – a close below 7351.60 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7393.81 triggers a sell signal
Trump: Shockingly, Republicans have kept the very important position of “Parliamentarian” in the hands of a woman, Elizabeth MacDonough, who was appointed, long ago, by Barack Hussein Obama and a vicious Lunatic known as Senator Harry Reid, who ran the Senate for the Dumocrats with an “iron fist.” Over the years, she has been brutal to Republicans, but not so to the Dumocrats — So why has she not been replaced? There are many fair people who would be qualified for that vital job. The Republicans play a very soft game compared to the Dumocrats. It is their single biggest disadvantage in politics. The Dumocrats cheat, lie, and steal, especially when it comes to Votes in Elections, but stick together, whereas the Republicans allow the Elizabeth MacDonoughs of the World to stay in power, and brutalize us. We need THE SAVE AMERICA ACT passed, and NOW — And, likewise, kill the Filibuster, which would give us everything! If we don’t pass at least one of these two provisions quickly, you will never see another Republican President again. The Dumocrats will end up with 2 additional States, D.C. and Puerto Rico, and all that entails, including 4 Senators, many Congressmen, and many additional Electoral Votes, and they will also get their dream of a packed United States Supreme Court with their most favorite number — 21 Justices. The Dumocrats will eliminate the Filibuster on the First Day that they get an opportunity to do so. The Republicans aren’t doing it because they say the Dumocrats will never do it, but the Republicans are WRONG. Get smart and tough Republicans, or you’ll all be looking for a job much sooner than you thought possible!…
The US DOJ indicted former Cuban president Raul Castro for murder. He allegedly ordered Cuban fighter jets to shoot down two civilian planes carrying Americans over international waters 30 years ago.
Texas Democrat Wants A Prison Camp for ‘American Zionists’
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 08:30 PM
A San Antonio Democrat running for Congress has proposed turning a federal immigration detention facility into an internment camp for “American Zionists,” and that is only the beginning of what she has been saying out loud. Maureen Galindo, a candidate in Texas’ newly redrawn 35th Congressional District, faces a Democratic primary runoff next week against former Bexar County Public Information Officer Johnny Garcia.
Maureen Galindo
With early voting running through Friday, May 22, she has managed to make national headlines for all the wrong reasons. In an Instagram post written in the third person, Galindo declared that she’ll “turn Karnes ICE Detention Center into a prison for American Zionists and former ICE officers for human trafficking.” The same post described the South San Antonio facility as “a castration processing center for pedophiles, which will probably be most of the Zionists.” The Karnes facility currently serves as an immigration detention center that the Trump administration has used to house migrants.
This is not a one-off outburst. Galindo has built her campaign around the assertion that Garcia, her Democratic opponent, is a participant in a human trafficking conspiracy orchestrated by “billionaire Zionist Jews.” She has vowed to put him “on trial” for treason. Her broader worldview is a litany of antisemitic tropes, including the claims that Jewish Zionists control Hollywood, the media, and local politicians.
“I think it’s actually the Zionists who are putting Jewish people at the most risk,” Galindo said last week, framing her remarks as ideological criticism rather than ethnic targeting.
Jewish community leaders in San Antonio are not buying the semantic wall she is trying to erect between her words and their plain meaning.
The San Antonio Jewish Federation responded with a formal statement: “The JFSA strongly condemns the spread of antisemitic tropes and conspiracy theories in public discourse.”
The same statement added that “Divisive and hateful rhetoric targeting the Jewish community has no place in our civic life.”
The Democratic Party’s mainstream has begun, however belatedly, to distance itself from Galindo. John Lira, who lost to Galindo in the earlier primary, rescinded his endorsement last week. State Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Texas’s U.S. Senate race, told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency that he refuses to share a campaign stage with Galindo even if she wins the runoff. “This antisemitic rhetoric has no place in our politics,” Talarico said. “We need leadership in both parties willing to stand up and call out hate where it rears its ugly head.” It is a fine statement.
It would land with more force if Talarico’s party were not increasingly accommodating to exactly this strain of politics, because Galindo is not an anomaly; she is a symptom.
In Maine, the presumptive Democratic Senate nominee, Graham Platner, reportedly carried a Nazi totenkopf tattoo on his chest for years, even bragging about it, before covering it up once the campaign made such imagery inconvenient. Other progressive firebrands like Zohran Mamdani, Ilhan Omar, and Pramila Jayapal have all been criticized for antisemitic posturing. The party has also done nothing to distance itself from progressive commentator Hasan Piker, who is known for making antisemitic comments.
Galindo’s campaign has become a national flashpoint precisely because her positions are expressed with unusual candor.
While antisemitism continues creeping into the Democratic mainstream under the cover of euphemisms and activist jargon, Galindo skipped the dog whistles entirely and went straight for the megaphone.
She emerged from the primary narrowly ahead of Garcia. Now, the runoff election will test whether openly antisemitic rhetoric is finally disqualifying in modern Democratic politics, or whether the party’s activist base has already normalized something that would have ended a political career not long ago.
end
Washington State Under Federal Investigation For Housing Men In Women’s Prisons
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced May 19 that its agents have launched an investigation into Washington State’s practice of housing male inmates in women’s prisons.
Gov. Bob Ferguson was notified in writing of the federal probe into an alleged pattern of “violating the constitutional rights of female prisoners incarcerated at the Washington Corrections Center for Women in Gig Harbor, Washington,” the DOJ stated.
The investigation is based on allegations that the prison has failed to protect female prisoners from sexual assaults, rape, voyeurism, and sexual intimidation by males who identify as females housed with them at the facility.
Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division said the practice would be a violation of the prisoners’ Eighth Amendment protections from cruel and unusual punishment.
“Under my leadership, the Civil Rights Division will not allow women incarcerated in jails or prisons to be subject to unconstitutional risks of harm from male inmates,” Dhillon said in a statement. “The constitutional rights of women cannot be sacrificed at the altar of appeasing unsupported and dangerous ideologies.”
The Washington State Department of Corrections adopted a policy in 2020 to allow men who identify as transgender to request a transfer to women’s facilities. The policy requires housing accommodations for inmates who are transgender, intersex, and gender-neutral to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.
The state is one of a small number of states to adopt similar policies. Maine, California, New York, Minnesota, and New Jersey also allow people who identify as transgender to be housed in a prison that matches their choice in gender. California and Maine were notified in March that their policies were also under investigation.
The DOJ said it was also collecting information from the public on men housed in women’s jails and prisons anywhere in the country as part of a wider investigation.
Investigating transgender prison policies is part of the Trump administration’s program to eliminate “gender ideology extremism and restore biological truth to the federal government,” which was an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in 2025.
The DOJ plans to review policies at the Washington prison and the Department of Corrections, and any evidence that has been reported. Federal investigators will work with the state to remedy any violations, according to the letter.
The investigation comes weeks after the America First Policy Institute, a right-leaning nonprofit think tank, filed a lawsuit challenging the state’s corrections policy, alleging it has led to violence, sexual abuse, intimidation, and fear among female inmates.
The complaint was filed on behalf of the Foundation Against Intolerance and Racism, Fair for All, Inc., and Faith Booher-Smith, an inmate who was allegedly violently attacked by a transgender inmate at the prison in 2025.
In the lawsuit, the plaintiffs claim female inmates have been forced to share cells, showers, bathrooms, and other intimate living spaces with male inmates, stripping them of the sex-based protections of a women’s prison.
“A women’s prison is supposed to protect women,” said Leigh Ann O’Neill, chief legal affairs officer at the institute. “Washington’s policy turned that basic duty on its head.”
The Washington governor’s office did not return a request for comment about the investigation.
END
FBI Charges Assistant US Attorney For Stealing Smith Report Docs In Trump ‘Witch Hunt’ Case
Former Justice Department prosecutor Carmen Mercedes Lineberger has been indicted for allegedly removing confidential Justice Department material and then concealing her efforts. Lineberger is accused of secretly transferring Jack Smith’s final report and hiding the material under files labeled “chocolate cake recipe” and “bundt cake recipe.” There has not been a greater recipe for disaster since aides tried to fit all of Biden’s candles on a cake. The case is particularly interesting because there was another person who was accused of a secret removal of Justice Department material who was not prosecuted: former FBI Director James Comey.
Linebarger, 62, of Port St. Lucie, Florida, has been indicted on four criminal charges: one felony count of obstruction of justice, one felony count of concealing government records and two misdemeanor counts of theft of government property valued at less than $1,000.
According to the indictment, Lineberger altered electronic file names of government records to conceal unauthorized transmissions of the documents to her personal email accounts and used file names for cake recipes to conceal her possession of the confidential information.
U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon blocked the public release of the report after the prosecution collapsed against the President.
The Justice Department alleges that Lineberger received a copy of Smith’s report before the court sealed it. Months later, she allegedly decided to transfer it to her personal email account in violation of the court order and Justice Department rules.
She has now pleaded not guilty and faces up to 20 years on the obstruction charge and other charges.
The decision is notable for a couple of reasons.
First, Smith made one last move in dismissing the case against Trump that left the door open to resuming his prosecution. Smith moved to dismiss the indictment “without prejudice” and then stressed to the court that the Department has previously “noted the possibility that a court might equitably toll the statute of limitations to permit proceeding against the President once out of office.” In other words, Trump could be prosecuted after he leaves office.
It is not known what the motive might have been in this transfer. One possibility would be a type of souvenir or trophy grab, which would be ironic given Smith’s suggestion that Trump may have transferred classified material for that type of possessory thrill. Another is the possible use for a book. Finally, there might have been a desire to preserve evidence to avoid destruction during the Trump years or possible release to the media.
The second notable aspect is that Comey was accused of such a knowing removal, but he was never actually prosecuted.
There was no court order governing the material removed by Comey after his firing, but it was clearly departmental material.
The Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, found that Comey was a leaker and had violated FBI policy in his handling of FBI memos. He found that Comey grabbed the material on his way out of the Bureau, including those containing the “code name and true identity” of a sensitive source.
While he did not find a disclosure of the classified information, Horowitz found that Comey took “the unauthorized disclosure of sensitive investigative information, obtained during the course of FBI employment, to achieve a personally desired outcome.” He further added that Comey “set a dangerous example for the over 35,000 current FBI employees—and the many thousands of more former FBI employees—who similarly have access to or knowledge of non-public information.”
Comey later admitted that he asked his friend, Columbia Law Professor Daniel Richman, to leak information from the documents to the New York Times.
While Comey is facing a weak criminal case over threats conveyed through beach shells, some of us saw his conduct in removing this material as a more serious breach.
Comey went on to write books on “ethical leadership” and recently sent a message to current FBI personnel that they should “hang on” and wait out Trump: “In two and a half years, and then we can rebuild.”
Rebuilding the bureau in Comey’s image is a truly chilling notion. Those “good old days” with Comey allowed agents to launch a baseless Russian collusion investigation at the behest of the Clinton campaign and lie to a secret court to secure surveillance of Trump figures.
In the meantime, it will be Lineberger, not Comey, who will face a jury for the removal of confidential material.
For Lineberger, these types of charges tend to be cut-and-dried for prosecutors if they can show that the material was restricted and that she took steps to conceal the alleged theft. While she gained access before the court order, she allegedly transferred the material after the order and then hid the material in files labeled as cake recipes. If those facts can be established in court, prosecutors likely believe that she can stick a fork in herself because she is done.
Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”
harveyorganblog.com 
