JUNE 16//M. of U WILL BE SIGNED ON FRIDAY BUT I HAVE DOUBTS THAT THE AGREEMENT WHATEVER IT IS WILL STICK//ISRAEL WILL NEVER LEAVE SOUTHERN LEBANON//GOLD CLOSED UP $4.45 TO $4334.35 BUT SILVER WAS DOWN $0.13 TO $70.01/PLAITNUM WAS THE STAR TODAY UP $43.50 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $16.00 TO $1364.50//JAPAN RAISES ITS INTEREST RATE BY 0.25% TO 1%: YEN FALLS A BIT AND YIELDS RISE OVER THERE//CHINA’S LASTEST ECONOMIC REPORTS DISMAL AND A FULL REPORT ON THAT//ISRAEL/USA AND IRAN UPDATES: ISRAEL FUMING THAT THEY CANNOT SEE THE M OF U//ISRAEL TBN//MICHAEL EVERY OF RABOBANK REPORTS ON THE LAST 24 HOURS//USA DATA RELEASES//USA FOILS A SUICIDE DRONE ATTACK ON IT//KING NEWS/
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 200 099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 10 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 45 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 1212 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 59 709 C BARCLAYS 1075 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 113 991 H CME 152
TOTAL: 1,433 1,433
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 59/143
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2026: 1433 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 143300 OZ or 4.457 TONNES
total notices so far: 35,353 contracts FOR 3,535,300 OZ OR 109.902 TONNES
JUNE 16
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 212 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.060 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2393 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 11.965 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $4.45 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.13 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.362 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// : INVENTORY RESTS AT THE SLV AT 482,383 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 481.388 MILLION
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 639 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 108,114 A LOT HIGHER FROM ITS NEW RECORD LOW OF 95,999 SET MAY 1/2026. THE RECORD HIGH OI FOR SILVER IS 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS VERY STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $3.28 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. ON THE FIRST OF MAY, WE REACHED OUR RECORD LOW OI OF 95,999 SURPASSING EVERY DAY NEW OI LOWS SET DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL 2026.
NOW ON A NET BASIS OUR SPECULATORS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO GOING LONG. THE FRBNY ON A NET BASIS IS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER TO OUR LONGS ALONG WITH SOME BULLION BANKS AND THEN A HUGE NUMBERS OF LONGS ,OUR CENTRAL BANKERS, TAKE THE LONG SIDE AND TENDER FOR PHYSICAL AT 4 PM EACH NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE HUGE SHORTFALL IN PHYSICAL SILVER IN LONDON THERE IS A LOTTERY TO SEE WHO GETS ANY OF THE PHYSICAL SILVER AVAILABLE THAT WHICH THEY ARE OBLIGATED TO DELIVER. THEY WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THEIR PHYSICAL METAL AND IF NOBODY GETS ANY THEY THEN COME BACK THE NEXT DAY AND SO ON. THIS IS IN LONDON, THE HOME OF PHYSICAL SILVER!! THE FACT THAT WE ARE WITNESSING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON HIGHLIGHTS THE FACT THAT THE COMEX IS OUT OF SILVER AS WELL.
WE ARE FINALLY MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE IN SILVER PRICING AT MAJOR SUPPORT LEVEL OF $70.00. SHORTLY WE WILL AGAIN ATTEMPT TO BREAK
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 848 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A FAIR SIZED SIZED 209 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE , WE HAD NO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY TRADING// WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1272 CONTRACT T.A.S. ISSUANCE!! / THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TODAY TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $100.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON FRIDAY WITH SILVER’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE
THE PRICE STILL FINISHED BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $70.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE BUT STILL BELOW THE $100.00 MARK CLOSING AT $71.18 UP $3.28. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING HAVING MANY HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES // TODAY’S WAS A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1,272 T.A.S. CONTRACTS !!. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING ABOVE THE 100.00 DOLLAR MARK!! AND NOW THE HUGE SUPPORT LEVEL OF 70 DOLLARS IS BROKEN!!.MAMMOTH SIZE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE BECOMING THE NORM AT THE COMEX NOW!!
THERE IS NO NEXT LINE IN THE SAND ONCE THE 100.00 DOLLAR SILVER IS PIERCED AGAIN. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED 209 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 1,272 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING//AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE.
IN ESSENCE WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 848 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.28. WE HAD HUGE GOVERNMENT (FRBY) COMEX CONTRACTS TRADING ALL WEEK AND A MAJOR PORTION WILL BE REMOVED BY DAYS END. (I RECORD THIS FOR YOU ON A DAILY BASIS). THE STICKY SPECULATOR LONGS STILL REMAIN STOIC
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.
THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, THROUGHOUT MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 1,272 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THESE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED FRBNY BANKERS).
THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS AS ONE UNIT, BUT SELL THE SHORT SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE LONG SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS NOW ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF XX CONTRACTS OR XXX OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 12.015 MILLION OZ//
SUMMARY OF OUR JUNE 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
WE HAD:
/ MEGA HUGE COMEX GAIN+// FAIR SIZED 209 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS (/ VI) A MEGA HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1,272 CONTRACTS
xx I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 78 SILVER CONTRACT//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE.. ACCUMULATION
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 DAY(S), total 7020 contracts: OR 35.100 MILLION OZ (585 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 35.100 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE. 35.100 MILION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 717 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.28 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE OF 209 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY, AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS).
INITIAL STANDING: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 12.015 MILLION OZ
LAST 14 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT: 12.015 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FOR TODAY (1,272) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING!
WE HAD 212 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1.060 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY BANKERS
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 250 OI CONTRACTS UP TO 339,376 OI AND THIS OI STILL SURPASSES BY A CONSIDERABLE MARGIN THE ALL TIME LOW AT 326,052 SET JUNE3/2026 AND THIS OI IS MUCH FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE HAVE NOW ADVANCED PAST THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS OF 357,136 SET APRIL 2/.2026AND 354,581 SET AT THE END OF APRIL 2026. WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAY FROM OUR TWO DECADES OLD: 390,000 CONTRACTS LOW SET IN THE YEAR OF 2001 WITH TRADING FOR GOLD AT $260.00. THUS DURING EARLY APRIL WE HAD AN ALL TIME LOW OI IN COMEX (354,531) BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. IN MAY: RECORD LOW OI OF 326,052 WITH A GOLD PRICE OF $4,460 THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE COMEX SHIP, NOBODY WANT TO PLAY IN THIS CROOKED CASINO!! (AND THIS CORRELATES WITH SILVER’S LOW OI OF 107,471 CONTRACTS WITH A MUCH HIGHER SILVER PRICE BASE//$75.00)
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 824 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI (250 CONTRACTS) . THIS SMALL GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $111.10 //,MONDAY///.
LAST 13 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES: (MAY 2025 THROUGH TO /MAY 2026)
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
2 JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
3.JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 3.965 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 11.171 TONNES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING JUNE. GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1896 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 339,376 SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 326,052 SET JUNE 3 AND RISING FROM OUR PREVIOUS RECORD LOW//MAY 28.2026 WE HAVE THUS RECORD LOW COMEX OI WITH A HIGH PRICE OF GOLD
SILVER ALSO HAS AN ULTRA SMALL SIZED AND EXTREMELY LOW COMEX OI OF 108,114 CONTRACTS// RISING FROM PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS SET DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL AND MAY FIRST.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN COMEX GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2146 CONTRACTS WITH 250 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1896 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2146 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALLER SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 957 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON
GOLD PRICE ON MONDAY ROSE BY $111.10
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT (1896 ) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 250 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES 2146 CONTRACTS!! WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE.
WE HAVE 1) NOW REVERTED TO OUR FORMAT OF BANKER (FRBNY) GOING ON THE SHORT SIDE AND HUGE NUMBERS OF NEWBIE SPECULATORS GOING TO THE LONG SIDE. IT WAS OUR SHORT SPECULATORS THAT WE BRUTALIZED ON THURSDAY WHEN OUR CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THEIR NEWLY BOUGHT GOLD FROM THE SPECS. THE SPECS ARE STILL SCRAMBLING LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD TO DELIVER TO OUR LONG CENTRAL BANKS.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 3.965TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 110.171 TONNES
3) LITTLE IF ANY T.A.S. LIQUIDATION IN THE COMEX SESSION AND SOME GOVT LIQUIDATION // WITH A SMALL GAIN OF EQUITY SHARES/JUNE12 HAVING 1)A $123.30 COMEX PRICE GAIN AND WE HAD 2) SPEC PILING HUGELY ON THE LONG SIDE// +3. EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ALSO PILING INTO THE LONG SIDE. WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 2146 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND AS WELL A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN JUNE. (110.171 TONNES). THE SHORT SPECS BAILED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY//, CENTRAL BANKERS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL WITH THEIR PURCHASES OF CONTRACTS../ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4)A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) V) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD(1896) AND 6. A SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE (957) FOR RAID PURPOSES.!!!
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 26,157 CONTRACTS OR 2,615,700 OZ OR 81.359 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2179 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN12 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 81.359 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2025, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 81.359 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.29% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2023 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2024: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES
2025: AND NOW 2026
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 81.359 TONNES
SPREADERS:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SOIS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A VERY STRONG 639 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 108,114.
EFP ISSUANCE 209 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 209 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 639 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 209 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF926 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $3.28
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 4.240 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $3.28
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JUNE 16 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.58 PTS OR 0.11%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 348.72 PTS OR 1.40%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 148.50 PTS OR 0.21%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.348%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7566
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7573 Oil DOWN TO 78.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 81.27 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7566) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7573 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL 250 CONTRACTS TO 339.376 RISING FROM ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD NO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING MONDAY’S TRADING JUNE 15!!. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE SHORT SIDE BUT WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL.
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JUNE CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $111.10) AS THE SPECS BAILED.
WE THUS HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 2975 CONTRACTS (OR 9.253 TONNES) WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, EQUATING TO 1896 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. ON FRIDAY, BY FAR WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK EVER ISSUED AT ONE TIME BEATING THE PREVIOUS SINGLE HIGHEST ISSUE BY ONE TONNE. THUS MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 146+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO SO FAR
DETAILS ON OUR NEW JUNE COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2975 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE($111.10). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH JUNE/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 957 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
JUNE: ZERO SO FAR.
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 146+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO. WE WILL KNOW IN JUNE WHETHER THEY COVERED ANY OF THEIR SHORTFALL.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 3.965 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 110.171 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH; 45.675 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.806 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING JUNE,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $111.10)
WE HAD NO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS STILL REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
MONDAY NIGHT//TUESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $111.10
WE HAD 824 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2975 CONTRACTS OR 297,500 OZ (9.253 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
35,353 notices 3,535,300 oz 109.962 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
1 ENTRIES
i) LOOMIS: 10,127.665 oz (315 kilobars)
total withdrawal 10,127.565 oz
adjustments: 0//
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI STANDS AT 1500 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 569 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 706 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED A MONSTER 1275 CONTRACTS OR 127,500 OZ. (3.965 TONNES) EXERCISED A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE PHYSICAL GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THIS IS NO DOUBT CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
JULY LOST 108 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 3243 CONTRACTS.
AUGUST LOST 1035 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 263,715
.
We had 1433 contracts filed for today representing 143,300oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1433 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 57 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JUNE. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (35,353) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(1500 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1433 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,535,300 OZ OR (110.171 Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JUNE. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (35,353) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE( 1500 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1433 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,535,000 OZ OR (110.171Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in JUNE becomes 110.171 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE 110.171 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.
confirmed volume MONDAY confirmed 148,100// poor// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,730,178.612 oz 53.816 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,730,178.612 tonnes oz 53.816 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,939,320.751oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,422,462.129 tonnes (479.70 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,516,458.622oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,692,284oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
425.887 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
JUNE DELIVERY MONTH
JUNE 16
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1 entries
i) Out of JPMorgan: 600,424.300 oz
total withdrawal: 600,424.300 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1 entries
i) Into CNT dealer: 668,932.450 OZ
TOTAL DEPOSIT: 668,932.450 oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
TWO ENTRIES
i) Into Asahi: 535,883.270 oz ii) Into Loomis 599,862.130 oz
total deposit: 1,134,945.330 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
212 CONTRACT(S) (1.060 MILLION OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
10 Contract (50,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2393 contracts 11.965 MILLION oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
TWO ENTRIES
i) Into Asahi: 535,883.270 oz ii) Into Loomis 599,862.130 oz
total deposit: 1,134,945.330 oz
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRY:1
ONE ENTRY
i)Into CNT 599,451.400 oz
total deposit 599,451.400 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 entries
i) Out of JPMorgan: 600,424.300 oz
total withdrawal: 600,424.300 oz
adjustments
1 entry
customer to dealer CNT 415,823.290 oz
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TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 86.273 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 321.159 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE /2026 OI: 222 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE NEITHER GAINED NOR LOST ANY CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 0 OZ WILL STAND AS A QUEUE JUMP AT THE SILVER COMEX.
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 3529 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 45,478 CONTRACTS.
AUGUST SAW A GAIN 0F 7 CONTRACTS UP TO 860…
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 212 or 1.060 MILLION OZ oz
CONFIRMED volume MONDAY; 62.919// fair
XXX
AND NOW JUNE. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2393 X5,000 oz = 11.965 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(222) AND the number of notices served upon today (212 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE 2026 contract month: (2393 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE ( 222) minus number of notices served upon today (212)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JUNE..contract month equating to 12.015 MILLION OZ.+
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 86.273 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 139.079/321.159 million: 43.30%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
JUNE 16 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 15 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $111.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 12 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.855 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 10 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $153.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.426 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.495 TONNES
JUNE 9 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $75.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.921 TONNES
JUNE 8 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.936 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.921 TONNES
JUNE 5 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $134;85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.857 TONNES
JUNE 4 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $39.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.857 TONNES
JUNE 3 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.856 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.000 TONNES
JUNE 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.712 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.856 TONNES
JUNE 1 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $79.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.568 TONNES
MAY 29 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.568 TONNES
MAY 28 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 27 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 26 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.9988 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 22 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
MAY 21 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1013/64 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.362 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.388 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.357 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.026 MILLION OZ
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $3.34: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.769 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.383 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.226 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.152 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.50: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.378 MILLION OZ
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.35: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.407 MILLION OZ INTO INTO THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.287 MILLION OZ
JUNE 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 543,000 OZ FROM THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.880 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.86: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.432 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.55: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.855 MILLION OZ
JUNE 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.9 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.077 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.02: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.61: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.131 OF 0.315 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.153 MILLION OZ
MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.022 MILLION OZ
MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.64: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 481.388 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD.
.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
5. COMMODITY REPORT//ALUMINIUM/SULFUR
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.58 PTS OR 0.11%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 348.72 PTS OR 1.40%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 148.50 PTS OR 0.21%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.348%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7566
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7573 Oil DOWN TO 78.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 81.27 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7566) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7573 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7566
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7573
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 348.72 PTS OR 1.40%
2. Nikkei closed UP 148.50 PTS OR 0.21%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 78.81
BRENT; 81.27
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.28/// EURO RISES TO 1.1605 UP 14 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.647 UP 7 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 160.323… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.775 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.7566 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7573
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.9313// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.645// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.3520%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.592%
3j Gold at $4345.35 //Silver at: 70.57 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 7/ 100 roubles/72.16
3m oil (WTI) into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 160.14 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.647% UP 7 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.775 UP 3 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7948 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9223
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.437 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.952 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.050 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 46.30 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7909 DOWN 2 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.506 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.413 UP 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.044 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
1b) European opening report
Oil, USD hit on Qatar LNG reporting, JPY and AUD unreactive to as-expected BoJ/RBA – Newsquawk US Open
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 06:16 AM
The BoJ hiked rates to 1.00%, as expected, while the RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35% following three consecutive 25bp rate hikes.
Qatar is to restore half of its LNG output a month after the Strait of Hormuz opens, with output to reach 80% of full output within two months.
US equity futures are mixed, while SPCX (+10.2% pre-market) looks set to surpass AMZN’s market cap.
DXY softer amid pressure in energy prices; JPY and AUD flat following rate announcements.
Fixed income benchmarks are broadly higher, while JGBs fell as the BoJ paused purchase tapering from FY27.
Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, Import/Export Prices (May), Housing Starts (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Speakers including ECB’s Lane, Supply from the US.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are extending on Monday’s gains but yet to reach the best levels reached in the prior session. To recap the main driver, the US and Iran have agreed to a preliminary deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, new updates regarding the deal have been light as markets now wait for the official MoU signing on Friday.
European sectors are broadly higher. Industrial Goods & Services (+1.5%) and Banks (+1.2%) are the clear outperformers, with Media (+0.8%) completing the top 3 sectors. On the downside, Autos (-0.9%) and Retail (-0.6%) are the underperformers.
US equity futures are incrementally firmer this morning. SpaceX (+10.4% pre-market) continues to rocket higher, putting it on course to overtake Amazon (AMZN) in market value.
DXY was firmer in APAC trade, though gains have reversed since as energy benchmarks continue lower on reports that Qatar is to reach 80% output within two months of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. As oil gradually returns to around pre-war levels, focus is ever-shifting towards central bank actions rather than terms of trade. On that note, Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Chair is due on Wednesday, widely expected as a hold. The docket today is light, with just ADP employment weekly and Import/Export prices due. DXY marked a session low just above the 99.60 mark, currently unchanged on the day.
RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.35% as expected, striking a hawkish tone by explicitly signalling further hikes on the table. Alongside the high bar set by markets of hawkishness by the RBA, participants this morning seemingly focused on the soft Australian growth story, with the Aussie under modest pressure, albeit just reversing some of Monday’s risk-on bid. Despite the reaction post-RBA, Westpac says next hike could come in August should the quarterly June inflation figure be strong, while ING suggests it is likely to remain on hold through year-end as inflation broadly tracks the board’s baseline scenario. AUD/USD -0.1% but within Monday’s range. The pair marked a session low just above 0.7040.
BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 1.00% in a 7-1 vote split, as expected. Asada was the dissenter, arguing that downside risks to employment and production were larger than inflation risks. JPY unreactive to the meeting/presser with Uchida not providing a clear bias, as had been expected heading into the presser given he was standing in for Governor Ueda. Not many clues as to what future policy will look like, with market pricing unchanged, with 85% probability of the BoJ’s next tightening in December. USD/JPY U/C, was supported by 160.00 throughout the meeting/presser.
FIXED INCOME
Global fixed benchmarks (ex-JGBs) started the European session trading on either side of the unchanged mark, with the complex ultimately taking a breather from the gains seen in the prior session. However, some pressure was seen in the crude complex soon after the European cash open, which helped lift fixed paper to highs. As such, yields are lower across the curve, but with underperformance now in the belly of the curve, in contrast to short-end underperformance seen on Monday; nonetheless, the bull-steepening bias remains. The slight pressure in the belly is perhaps indicative of markets beginning to price in the economic impact of the resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz; recent updates out of Qatar have suggested that it can restore half of its LNG output within a month, 80% within two months
JGBs (-47 ticks) lag vs peers, given the BoJ’s decision to hike rates by 25bps (as expected) and its announcement to pause the tapering of JGB purchases from FY27. The accompanying presser provided little updates, with Deputy Governor Uchida avoiding any commentary pertaining to forward guidance. As it stands, markets assign an 85% chance of a hike by year-end, so focus remains firmly on Ueda’s comments when he returns from hospital.
USTs (+6 ticks) trade at the upper end of a 109-19 to 109-26+ range. Overnight action saw the benchmark move sideways around the unchanged mark, before then moving higher as energy prices fell. From a yield perspective, the US 10yr remains just shy of the 4.50% mark, last at 4.44% – and well beyond pre-war levels at c. 4.00%. Economists will argue that, for now, the damage to the global economy has already filtered through; the US is dealing with elevated inflation, which may keep yields propped up in the short-term.
Bunds (+17 ticks) and Gilts (+30 ticks) follow the bullish bias mentioned earlier, and trade towards their respective highs. The former digested a better than expected ZEW survey, as markets saw more positive developments on the US-Iran situation. Elsewhere, a 2036 Gilt auction passed with solid demand.
The UK sells GBP 4.25bln 4.875% 2036 Treasury Gilt: b/c 3.46x (prev. 3.45x), average yield 4.858% (prev. 5.026%), tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.3bps).
COMMODITIES
Geopolitical newsflow has calmed down as markets now await the official MoU signing on Friday. More recently, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said a new round of US-Iran talks will start on the day of the signing in Switzerland. Concrete MoU details remain unclear. Overnight, US President Trump said Iran has agreed never to have a nuclear weapon.
Crude futures traded rangebound throughout the Asia-Pac session but have seen pressure in recent trade, driven by reports that Qatar is planning to rapidly boost LNG production to about 50% capacity a month after safe passage through the Strait is restored and c. 80% within two months. WTI Jul’26 slips below the USD 80/bbl mark, trading at the lower end of its USD 78.41-81.58/bbl range. Brent Aug’26 kissed the round USD 81/bbl mark (USD 81.00-83.80/bbl). Dutch TTF also lower, but remains above the EUR 42/MWh mark.
Spot gold is on a firmer footing, after gains were pared back slightly in the latter end of Monday’s session. The yellow metal remains above the key USD 4300/oz handle, currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4306-4336/oz band. According to a WGC survey of 74 central banks, 45% said they plan to buy gold in the coming year, with only 1 saying it plans to cut its holdings. “I think the fall in the price is an opportunity for some central banks to start buying in,” said Shaokai Fan, global head of central banks for the WGC.
3M LME Copper trades choppy, with initial weakness driven by the disappointing Chinese domestic data. Retail sales fell for the first time in over 3 years, contracting 0.6% in May and missing estimates of 0%. In contrast, industrial production rose 4.5%, beating the 4.3% consensus. The red metal trades in the bottom half of its USD 13.64k-13.77k/t range.
Qatar to restore half of its LNG output a month after the Strait of Hormuz opens, with output to reach 80% of full output within two months, according to Bloomberg.
Iranian Oil Minister announced plans to rapidly increase gas production in fields covered by the Central Iranian Oil Company.
Iranian Energy Minister said Tehran will soon connect its electricity grid with Qatar.
Mitsui OSK Lines (9104 JT) CEO said that many operators would wait at least a couple of weeks or a month before resuming normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs lowered its Q4’26 Brent crude forecast to USD 80/bbl (prev. USD 90/bbl). Cut 2027 Brent forecast to USD 75/bbl (prev. USD 80/bbl), cut WTI forecast to USD 75/bbl in Q4’26 and USD 70 for 2027.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
UK Chancellor Reeves said will see a further “big” uplift in defence spending within the DIP and hopes to get to the next budget without the need to raise taxes.
Germany’s RWI expects the German economy to stagnate in Q2 2026, sees inflation at 3.1% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, sees growth at 0.8% in 2026 and 2027.
EU officials are drafting a blueprint to manage banking crisis liquidity, according to POLITICO.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun) 10.5 vs. Exp. -6 (Prev. -10.2, Low. -13, High. 0). “Indicator returns to positive territory as financial market experts expect the Iran conflict to be nearing an end.”
German ZEW Current Conditions (Jun) -81.0 vs. Exp. -77 (Prev. -77.8, Low. -78.1, High. -74)
EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jun) 9.5 vs. Exp. -7.6 (Prev. -9.1).
EU Wage Growth YoY (Q1) Y/Y 3.40% (Prev. 3%)
EU Labour Cost Index YoY Final (Q1) Y/Y 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.3%)
Italian Inflation Rate YoY Final (May) Y/Y 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 2.7%).
Italian Inflation Rate MoM Final (May) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.1%).
CENTRAL BANKS
The BoJ hiked its short-term interest rates by 25bps to 1.00%, as expected, while it pauses tapering of bond buys in which it will keep monthly pace of JGB buying at around JPY 2tln from April 2027. Decision made by 7-1 vote, with Asada dissenting against a hike.
In the post-policy press conference, BoJ’s Uchida said financial conditions have been accommodative while stating there is a risk of underlying inflation deviating upward to a level above the price target. All-in-all, Uchida avoided any commentary pertaining to forward guidance.
The RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, but warned of potential further hikes if necessary citing persistent inflation and oil supply disruptions.
In the post-policy press conference, RBA Governor Bullock said inflation remains too high, with the Board still concerned about inflation. No hike was considered at the meeting but doesn’t rule out that the Bank might have to do more on rates. Risks are still to the upside.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US President Trump posted on Truth Social “Iran has agreed to never have a Nuclear Weapon! Also, the story that the U.S. is paying Iran 300 million Dollars is Fake News, put out by the Dumocrats!!!”
US President Trump’s administration considers USD 300bln fund for Iran if deal is upheld, and incentives would be tied to Tehran’s performance, including over opening up the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear talks, according to FT.
US President Trump’s close aide Bruesewitz clarified that the USD 300bln Iran reconstruction plan will only be established after Iran completely dismantles its nuclear program, ceases support for terrorist organisations and conducts significant internal reforms.
US Vice President J.D. Vance said the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is a brief, one-and-a-half-page document serving as a broad framework rather than a detailed agreement, and is a very general document that requires technical talks. Vance also stated that Trump may release the US-Iran agreement before Friday and affirmed the agreement is expected to be signed on Friday.
CIA Director Ratcliffe told US President Trump and senior administration officials that information gathered by US intelligence agencies raises serious doubts about Iran’s willingness to make the concessions the US seeks in a final nuclear deal, according to Axios. Sources also stated that Trump and his team discussed intelligence gathered by US intelligence agencies, which showed the way Iranian officials were discussing the deal among themselves was inconsistent with what they were telling mediators and the US. Furthermore, Ratcliffe was not the only sceptic on Trump’s senior team, as Secretary of State Rubio and Defence Secretary Hegseth expressed concerns and raised questions about the deal in internal discussions, while VP Vance and envoys Witkoff and Kushner supported it.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said the formal activation of the MOU will be on Friday. That will immediately end the war, including in Lebanon. Second phase negotiations would then commence immediately. Next round of US-Iran talks will start Friday in Switzerland.
Israeli artillery shelling was reported in the Nabatieh district of southern Lebanon. It was separately reported that Hezbollah fired rockets and artillery at Israeli soldiers, while the Israeli military said it intercepted numerous rockets launched by Hezbollah towards troops in southern Lebanon.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
UK is to announce new Russian shadow fleet sanctions on Tuesday, with the UK to target Russian LNG vessels and finance networks.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin extends on gains and is on track for its fourth consecutive daily gains. Currently trading in a USD 65.61k-66.94k range.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed as the prior day’s rally and US-Iran peace deal euphoria petered out amid a continued lack of concrete details regarding the interim agreement and as market participants turn their attention to this week’s busy slate of central bank policy decisions.
ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in tech, consumer discretionary and industrials, while participants also digested the RBA rate decision in which the central bank paused after three consecutive rate hikes, but warned of potential future hikes if necessary and remained hawkish regarding inflation.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy as participants digested mixed activity data in which Industrial Production topped forecasts, but Retail Sales missed and printed in contraction territory, while the PBoC continued its increased liquidity efforts.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson said China’s economic foundation needs to be strengthened, and that the external situation is complex and volatile, while China is to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, and will stabilise employment and the market. NBS also stated that China is to expand domestic demand and that some companies face relatively big pressure. Furthermore, the stats bureau spokesperson said there is still ample space for China to expand investment and that stronger employment and income growth are needed to boost consumption, as well as stated that China has ample policy space, reserves and flexible tools available to ensure stable economic growth, but also acknowledged that China’s foreign trade faces some pressure due to external uncertainties.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
Chinese Industrial Production YY (May) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%).
Chinese Retail Sales YY (May) -0.6% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.2%).
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment YTD YY (May) -4.1% vs. Exp. -2% (Prev. -1.6%).
Chinese Unemployment Rate (May) 5.1% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 5.2%).
Chinese House Price Index YY (May) -3.5% (Prev. -3.5%).
1 c) Asian opening report
Europe set for quiet open, JPY and AUD unreactive to as-expected policy meetings; Uchida ahead – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 02:08 AM
US President Trump said the Hormuz deal is fully signed and that the Strait of Hormuz has already partially reopened, with a complete reopening expected on Friday.
The US claim that Lebanon is not included in the memorandum of understanding is false, reports Fars, citing sources.
Israeli artillery shelling was reported in southern Lebanon, while it was also reported that Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli soldiers in the region.
APAC stocks were mixed, cooling from the relief rally seen on Monday; European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open.
DXY is a touch firmer and trades around 99.70; JPY incrementally gains post-BoJ, which delivered a 25bps hike, as expected. The Aussie was little moved by the RBA’s hawkish hold.
Looking ahead, highlights include Italian Inflation Final (May), EU/German ZEW (Jun), US ADP Weekly, Import/Export Prices (May), Housing Starts (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Speakers including RBA’s Bullock, BoJ’s Uchida & ECB’s Lane, Supply from UK, Germany & US.
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IRAN CONFLICT
US President Trump said the Hormuz deal is fully signed and that the Strait of Hormuz has already partially reopened, with a complete reopening expected on Friday, while he also stated that oil prices will plummet and lots of great things will happen in the Middle East. Furthermore, Trump said the text will come in the very near future and reiterated there will be no sanctions relief for Iran until it does what it is supposed to do.
A US senior official said the US has signed the memorandum of understanding with Iran, with President Trump, Vice President Vance and Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf all signing the document. The official reiterated that the deal provides for the immediate opening of Hormuz and the lifting of the US blockade on Iran, while traffic through the Strait will increase significantly, although reopening will take time due to mines, and anticipated traffic volumes would rise within one to two weeks. The official also stated that a formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday, and details of the agreement will be released within the next 24-48 hours, while technical discussions will begin later this week.
US President Trump posted on Truth Social “Iran has agreed to never have a Nuclear Weapon! Also, the story that the U.S. is paying Iran 300 million Dollars is Fake News, put out by the Dumocrats!!!”
US President Trump’s administration considers USD 300bln fund for Iran if deal is upheld, and incentives would be tied to Tehran’s performance, including over opening up the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear talks, according to FT.
US President Trump’s close aide Bruesewitz clarified that the USD 300bln Iran reconstruction plan will only be established after Iran completely dismantles its nuclear program, ceases support for terrorist organisations and conducts significant internal reforms.
US Vice President J.D. Vance said the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is a brief, one-and-a-half-page document serving as a broad framework rather than a detailed agreement, and is a very general document that requires technical talks. Vance also stated that Trump may release the US-Iran agreement before Friday and affirmed the agreement is expected to be signed on Friday.
CIA Director Ratcliffe told US President Trump and senior administration officials that information gathered by US intelligence agencies raises serious doubts about Iran’s willingness to make the concessions the US seeks in a final nuclear deal, according to Axios. Sources also stated that Trump and his team discussed intelligence gathered by US intelligence agencies, which showed the way Iranian officials were discussing the deal among themselves was inconsistent with what they were telling mediators and the US. Furthermore, Ratcliffe was not the only sceptic on Trump’s senior team, as Secretary of State Rubio and Defence Secretary Hegseth expressed concerns and raised questions about the deal in internal discussions, while VP Vance and envoys Witkoff and Kushner supported it.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said the majority of the IRGC supported the text regarding the MoU, and “What has been understood is an important step towards stopping the war and starting negotiations, and a final agreement has not yet been reached”.
IRGC Brigadier General Qaani said Bab al-Mandab is just one of the strategic points in the hands of the resistance and there are other places that will be activated if necessary, according to Fars News.
Iranian army spokesperson said they will increase their defensive power during the agreement period with the US, and keep their readiness more than before.
Iranian media reported that three oil tankers and two ships carrying essential Iranian goods ‘passed through’ the US naval blockade.
Three explosions were reportedly heard south of Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian state media said the blasts were possibly linked to traffic management.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said with or without a deal, Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, while he added Israel will remain in security zones as long as needed and will continue to thwart threats in the region. Netanyahu also stated that sometimes he and US President Trump do not see eye to eye.
Israeli PM Netanyahu and US VP Vance reportedly had a tense conversation regarding Israel’s presence in Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera citing Israeli Channel 13 sources.
An informed source said the US claim that Lebanon is not included in the memorandum of understanding is false, according to Fars News Agency.
Israeli artillery shelling was reported in the Nabatieh district of southern Lebanon. It was separately reported that Hezbollah fired rockets and artillery at Israeli soldiers, while the Israeli military said it intercepted numerous rockets launched by Hezbollah towards troops in southern Lebanon.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks closed firmly in the green, albeit slightly off intraday highs, as risk sentiment took its cue from the US and Iran reaching a peace agreement that is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday. While full details of the agreement have yet to be released, reports suggest the US will lift its naval blockade while Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The positive developments surrounding the US-Iran agreement drove a broad risk-on move across asset classes, while sector performance reflected the improved risk backdrop in which Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary led the gains, while Energy was the clear laggard amid the sharp decline in oil prices, as traders removed much of the geopolitical risk premium embedded during the conflict.
SPX +1.65% at 7,554, NDX +3.06% at 30,544, DJI +0.92% at 51,676, RUT +0.72% at 2,965.
California Governor Newsom said US President Trump has directed the DoJ to investigate him.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mixed as the prior day’s rally and US-Iran peace deal euphoria petered out amid a continued lack of concrete details regarding the interim agreement and as market participants turn their attention to this week’s busy slate of central bank policy decisions.
ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in tech, consumer discretionary and industrials, while participants also digested the RBA rate decision in which the central bank paused after three consecutive rate hikes, but warned of potential future hikes if necessary and remained hawkish regarding inflation.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy as participants digested mixed activity data in which Industrial Production topped forecasts, but Retail Sales missed and printed in contraction territory, while the PBoC continued its increased liquidity efforts.
US equity futures took a breather after the recent rally on Wall St, where the Nasdaq outperformed on tech strength, and the Dow printed fresh all-time intraday highs and a record close.
European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.7% on Monday.
FX
DXY attempted to nurse some losses after weakening yesterday as risk sentiment was boosted by the US and Iran reaching a framework peace agreement, which is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday. The full details have yet to be released, although reports suggested the US would lift its naval blockade and Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while there were discrepancies, such as surrounding the release of funds, with US President Trump refuting reports of a potential USD 300bln reconstruction fund for Iran. Nonetheless, the focus now turns to the slew of rate decisions, including from the FOMC on Wednesday.
EUR/USD took a breather after it recently benefited from a softer dollar, but ultimately failed to sustain the 1.1600 status despite several ECB comments yesterday, which were mostly hawkish-leaning.
GBP/USD faded this week’s initial gains and returned to flat territory amid quiet newsflow, while the calendar remained light for the UK, but will pick up from Wednesday with the release of CPI data, followed by the BoE policy meeting and the key Makerfield by-election, which are both scheduled on Thursday.
USD/JPY continued to pull back from Monday’s peak, but retained the 160.00 handle as attention turned to the BoJ policy decision, which unsurprisingly lifted rates to the highest in more than three decades, and also announced to pause the future tapering of bond purchases from FY27.
Antipodeans retreated as the risk sentiment in Asia waned and following mixed activity data from China, which showed a contraction in Retail Sales, while attention then turned to rate decisions, including from the RBA, which stood pat after having delivered three consecutive rate hikes so far this year.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8108 vs exp. 6.7605 (prev. 6.8088).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures paused overnight after bull steepening yesterday as the front-end outperformed on lower oil prices following the US-Iran MoU, while demand was contained ahead of a US 20yr auction due later today and with the FOMC announcement scheduled on Wednesday.
Bund futures trickled lower amid incoming supply, including EUR 5bln in Bobls today, followed by tomorrow’s EUR 2.5bln of Bund offerings, while German ZEW data also looms.
10yr JGB futures declined heading into the BoJ policy decision and extended on losses after the central bank hiked rates by 25bps to 1.00%, as widely expected, with rates now at their highest level since 1995.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were contained after tumbling yesterday on the US-Iran interim peace agreement to end the hostilities and open up the Strait of Hormuz. While the full document itself hasn’t been released yet, officials have been revealing some details, but there are some discrepancies. Nonetheless, the MoU was reportedly signed virtually by US President Trump, VP Vance and Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf, with an official signing to take place in Switzerland on Friday.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil stocks fell to the lowest since 1983 at 340.3mln barrels.
Spot gold eked slight gains in rangebound trade after Monday’s intraday pullback was stemmed by support at the USD 4,300/oz level, and as the focus turns towards central bank policy announcements.
Copper futures continued to fade recent gains as the euphoria surrounding the US-Iran agreement began to wear thin amid the lack of concrete details and with Trump refuting reports regarding a potential USD 300bln reconstruction fund for Iran, which he called fake news.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is marginally lower after rebounding from a brief dip beneath the USD 66,000 level.
CENTRAL BANKS
BoJ raised its short-term interest rates by 25bps to 1.00%, as expected, while it announced to pause tapering of bond buys, in which it will keep the monthly pace of JGB buying at around JPY 2tln from April 2027. BoJ said it will continue to raise the policy rate in response to developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions, while it will examine the likelihood of realising the baseline scenario as well as risks in considering the timing and pace of policy adjustment. The decision on rates was made by a 7-1 vote, as board member Asada dissented against a hike, while board member Tamura proposed tapering bond purchases by JPY 200bln per quarter from April 2027 onward, but the proposal was rejected by a majority vote. BoJ stated there is no change in the current plan to reduce monthly JGB buying by JPY 200bln yen each quarter until January-March 2027 and it is prepared to amend the bond-taper plan at future policy meetings if necessary, but will discontinue the practice of conducting an interim assessment of the bond-taper plan. Furthermore, it said it will respond nimbly, including by increasing JGB buying and conducting fixed-rate purchase operations, in the event of a rapid rise in long-term rates.
RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected and with the decision unanimous, but warned of potential further hikes if necessary, citing persistent inflation and oil supply disruptions. RBA said the latest data indicates that headline and underlying inflation remain too high, and the board will monitor incoming data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions, while it noted short-term inflation expectations have eased but remain above levels seen earlier this year. Furthermore, it stated that monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments and the Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment, while it will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome, including increasing the cash rate target further if required.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson said China’s economic foundation needs to be strengthened, and that the external situation is complex and volatile, while China is to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, and will stabilise employment and the market. NBS also stated that China is to expand domestic demand and that some companies face relatively big pressure. Furthermore, the stats bureau spokesperson said there is still ample space for China to expand investment and that stronger employment and income growth are needed to boost consumption, as well as stated that China has ample policy space, reserves and flexible tools available to ensure stable economic growth, but also acknowledged that China’s foreign trade faces some pressure due to external uncertainties.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Industrial Production YY (May) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%)
Chinese Retail Sales YY (May) -0.6% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.2%)
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment YTD YY (May) -4.1% vs. Exp. -2% (Prev. -1.6%)
Chinese Unemployment Rate (May) 5.1% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 5.2%)
Chinese House Price Index YY (May) -3.5% (Prev. -3.5%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
UK is to announce new Russian shadow fleet sanctions on Tuesday, with the UK to target Russian LNG vessels and finance networks.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
EU officials are drafting a blueprint to manage banking crisis liquidity, according to POLITICO.
end
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA
JAPAN
Bank Of Japan Raises Rates To 1% For The First Time In 31 Years, Will Stop Reducing Bond Purchases
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 10:40 AM
As widely expected, the BoJ raised the policy rate by 25bp to “around 1%” (there was one dissent from newly appointed dovish board member Asada for a hold) taking the cost of borrowing to its highest level in 31 years as the country adjusts to sustained inflation. The 0.25% increase, which was widely expected, takes Japan to what analysts said was a critical milestone in the central bank’s effort of normalizing monetary policy after years of ultra-low interest rates and deflation. The BoJ’s policy rate was last at 1% in 1995, when the central bank was in the process of lowering borrowing costs in the wake of the Japanese asset bubble burst in the late 1980s. The Board also opted to make no changes for now to their planned pace of QE taper, also in line with expectations, but likely disappointing some expectations for a shift to a higher planned pace of purchases to support JGBs
In a statement accompanying the decision, the BoJ signalled that it intended to continue that normalization process, raising the policy interest rate and degree of monetary accommodation “in response to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions”.
The policy statement showed no material change other than the view that the major downside risks to the economy have “decreased compared with a while ago”. On inflation, it pointed to “a risk of underlying CPI inflation deviating upward to a level above the price stability target of 2%”, but this is not new information given that the April Outlook Report’s BoJ core inflation forecast (ex. fresh food and energy) already implies inflation above 2% throughout the projection period through FY2028. As Deputy Governor Uchida also noted at the press conference, in terms of what has changed since the April meeting, the decline in downside growth risks appears to have been the backdrop to the decision to proceed with a rate hike this time.
Offsetting the hawkish taste of the rate hike, the BoJ also said that from April 2027 it would stop reducing its monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds, leveling off at a pace of about ¥2tn ($12.5bn) per month. That move was also widely expected by the market. The Bank noted that this decision could be changed depending on circumstances; however, if this policy is maintained, the BoJ’s balance sheet will continue to shrink, though the pace of contraction will ease from 2028 onward.
The BoJ said that while higher crude oil prices were weighing on economic activity, “the risk of a significant slowdown in the economy appears to have decreased compared with a while ago”. It also noted that the price pass-through from higher fuel prices had been progressing relatively quickly, and could spread from business-to-business transactions to push underlying consumer price inflation above its target of 2 per cent.
Since lifting Japan out of negative interest rates in 2024, the BoJ raised rates twice last year. It has been expected to settle into a pattern of gradually tightening every six months or so. Some economists believe a further 0.25% rise could come as soon as October.
The decision to raise interest rates this week was reached by a 7-1 vote of the Monetary Policy Committee, which was down to eight members after governor Kazuo Ueda was admitted to hospital last week. The dissenting member, Toichiro Asada – the first member appointed under the dovish Takaichi administration – argued that the situation in the Middle East presented Japan with greater downside risks to production and employment than the upside risks to prices.
“The distribution of votes is interesting and reflects that the board is a bit more balanced now when previously it skewed comfortably hawkish,” said Stefan Angrick, head of Japan at Moody’s Analytics. “The fact is also that the BoJ has no good choices,” he added. “They can hike to stem inflationary pressure by strengthening the yen, but that would hurt the economy.”
As reported previously, BOJ governor Ueda is receiving treatment for a liver condition and did not attend the meeting or cast a vote. This week’s meeting, the first held without the governor since 2010, was chaired by one of the BoJ’s deputy governors, Ryozo Himino. In Ueda’s absence, the afternoon press conference was presented by the BoJ’s other deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida. He noted that the major difference between this week’s meeting and the one in April, when the BoJ held rates, was the memorandum agreed between the US and Iran to extend their ceasefire
“That is a welcome move,” Uchida said. “Having said that, there is uncertainty on the pace of improvement in [oil] distribution.”
Deputy Governor Uchida chose his words carefully throughout the press conference, but most questions focused on the Bank’s assessment of upside inflation risks and the implications for future rate hikes. He reiterated the policy of continuing rate hikes as underlying inflation approaches 2%, reinforcing that stance by emphasizing the perceived upside risks to inflation. He also stated that going forward, “keeping inflation stable at around 2% will be important”.
That said, differences of opinion were evident within the Board regarding the state of underlying inflation. While the statement and the press conference conveyed the view that underlying inflation is now in the process of moving toward 2%, Takada and Tamura objected, indicating that they believe it has already reached that level. In contrast, Deputy Governor Uchida said at the press conference that many of the remaining members think it will be achieved between the second half of FY2026 and the first half of FY2027.
Another notable point was Deputy Governor Uchida’s remark that “the neutral rate estimates have too wide a range to be usable for actual policy decisions”, clearly downplaying the Bank’s published estimates of the neutral rate. Governor Ueda has long pointed to the uncertainty surrounding the estimates, but Uchida made this point more explicit. He characterized the current rate hikes as “policy adjustments toward a neutral level”, while adding that “it is not clear at what point we can judge the stance to be neutral; we won’t know until we reach it”. This likely implies that, although the policy rate has now reached the lower bound of the BoJ’s published estimates of the neutral rate, that fact does not mean the Bank will become materially more cautious about further rate hikes.
Deputy Governor Uchida avoided answering a question about consistency with the fiscal policy pursued by the Takaichi administration. Still, despite his otherwise rigorous focus on logic, his explanation for JGB purchases remained somewhat coarse – namely, that “market functioning has been steadily improving, so we decided to continue with this for the time being”. Moreover, even though the decision was made after substantial prior coordination and was almost fully priced in by the market, the fact that a member appointed under the Takaichi administration cast a dissenting vote may suggest that strong resistance to the BoJ’s policy normalization may remain within the administration.
Finally, he was also asked why Governor Ueda did not have voting rights this time, even though Deputy Governor Uchida retained voting rights when he participated remotely during his hospitalization through the previous meeting. Uchida limited his response to saying it was “for reasons related to medical treatment”.
According to JPM, this rate hike will not exert significant downward pressure on the economy, and the bank continues to expect the BoJ to deliver an additional rate hike in October in response to inflationary pressures that are likely to become more apparent towards the summer.
The yen held steady at about ¥160.2 versus the dollar following the announcement, while the Nikkei 225 stock average breached 70,000 points, a record level, before falling back.
“Traders were content that there were no overtly hawkish surprises” from the BOJ, said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. “The rate hike was fully anticipated and priced in.”
3 CHINA
CHINA/OIL
China’s Return To The Oil Market Could Boost Inflation
The U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could prompt China to return to buying more crude after months of multi-year-low purchases, which could reignite inflationary pressures despite the expected ease of oil flows from the Middle East.
Late on Sunday, the U.S. and Iran announced a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz more than 100 days after its closure. This re-opening could happen as soon as an agreement is signed on Friday. News of the deal sent oil prices tumbling early on Monday, with Brent Crude prices down to $83 per barrel, and WTI Crude at the $80 a barrel handle.
If the agreement holds and flows through the Strait of Hormuz, begin to tick up relatively quickly, China could resume buying more crude, and this additional demand, which had vanished in the past three months, could tighten the oil market and drive up inflation, analysts at Bloomberg Economics said in a note on Monday.
“Any recovery in Chinese oil demand — particularly if energy flows remain constrained — could tighten global energy markets, reignite inflation pressures and complicate the task facing central banks,” Bloomberg Economics’ analysts wrote.
Energy flows are likely to take months to recover to pre-war levels, assuming the deal holds and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sustainably increases, analysts say.
China’s severely reduced crude oil imports have been a key anchor keeping oil prices below $100 per barrel during the past few weeks, alongside record U.S. crude and fuel exports and global releases from strategic oil stockpiles coordinated by the International Energy Agency.
The world’s top crude importer started tapping its huge oil reserves last month, in a sign that Beijing is still refraining from paying top-dollar for prompt crude deliveries.
So far into this unprecedented crisis, China has slashed refinery run rates, limited exports, and cut demand for road transportation fuels as consumers prefer driving EVs over paying high gasoline prices.
The key question for the oil market is how much demand China would generate when it returns to more active crude purchases.
The West is going to lose the CHIP wars. It is bad enough that Intel developed a glass chip after 10 years. And China is actually already building the factories to make this chip while INtel has yet to think through the manufacturing process.
As this reality in CHIP design and manufacturing combines and CHina gains the edge they will also become dominant i think global race for hegemony.
END
CHINA
China is cratering!!
(zerohedge)
Chinese Stocks, Yuan Drop After Dismal Data Dump: Worst Retail Sales Since COVID
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 09:24 AM
China’s consumer spending and investment slumped in May to levels unseen since the pandemic, exposing risks for an increasingly two-speed economy, as Bloomberg’s Chang Shu and Eric Zhu noted:
“The supply side remains robust, driven by faster-than-expected expansion in exports and AI tech sectors.
The demand side has faltered, with consumption and private non-tech investment plummeting.”
Here’s the details:
Industrial Production
Industrial production (IP) growth rose modestly to 4.5% yoy from 4.1% yoy thanks to stronger-than-expected exports, although automobile output growth remained weak and the ongoing global energy shock continued to weigh on chemical-related manufacturing output. In sequential terms, IP gained 0.2% mom non-annualized in May based on our estimates (vs. -1.1% mom non-annualized in April).
By industry, the April-to-May acceleration in year-on-year IP growth was led by faster output growth in computer & other equipment, electronic machinery, and utilities industries, more than offsetting slower output growth in chemicals and non-ferrous metal smelting industries.
Among major industrial products (different from by-industry breakdown), year-on-year growth in industrial robot output, metal cutting machine output and power generation rose to +27.9%, +10.7% and +4.2%, respectively, in May from +15.1%, +7.5% and +2.6% in April, while automobile, computer and smartphone output growth in year-on-year terms slowed to -3.2%, -19.4% and -8.8%, respectively, from -2.6%, -9.3% and +4.7%.
Retail Sales
Nominal retail sales growth continued to slow in May, to -0.6% yoy from +0.2% yoy in April, the lowest since December 2022 (during the COVID exit wave), with year-on-year growth in goods sales and restaurant sales revenue both weakening.
Under retail sales, big-ticket items led the decline. Car purchases, which make up about 8% of the overall figure, plunged 16% in May from a year ago. Excluding autos, retail sales grew 1.1% in May.
Sales of home appliances as well as construction and decoration materials also contracted at a double-digit pace.
Property
Property activity data remained under pressure in May despite recent green shoots in large cities.
Year-on-year growth in property sales registered -13.1% in volume (floor space) terms and -9.5% in value terms in May (vs. -9.5%/-7.7% in April). New home under construction and completions growth slowed to -12.3% yoy and -19.9% yoy, respectively in May from -12.1% yoy and -18.8% yoy in April. New home starts growth remained depressed at -24.6% yoy in May, despite a modest improvement from -26.6% yoy in April. NBS and private sector data both showed continued downward pressure on home prices in May, mainly in lower-tier cities.
FAI
Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell further -10.6% yoy in May from -8.2% yoy in April on a single-month basis (Exhibit 3), reflecting both adverse weather conditions (e.g., heavy rainfall in southern and central China and a heatwave in northern China) and a still-slow pace of government bond issuance. This takes year-to-date FAI growth to -4.1% yoy in May (vs. -1.6% yoy in April).
By sector, year-on-year growth in infrastructure, property and other investment (i.e., services and agriculture-related) fell to -11.2%, -24.3% and -13.2%, respectively, in May from -5.6%, -20.1% and -10.6% in April, while manufacturing investment growth improved slightly to -4.1% yoy from -4.8% yoy. That said, we caution that the occasional NBS “statistical correction” of previously over-reported data may have exaggerated the volatility of reported FAI growth in recent quarters, as the year-on-year contraction in crude steel and cement output narrowed modestly in May.
Further evidence emerged indicating a growing divergence in the economy. Investment in high-tech industries expanded 4.5%, with capital expenditure of semiconductor and lithium battery makers up 11% and 25%, respectively.
Labor Market
Regarding the labor market, both the nationwide and 31-city unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted) edged down to 5.1% for May from 5.2% for April.
After seasonal adjustment, we estimate the nationwide unemployment rate inched down to 5.2% in May from 5.3% in April, and the 31-city metric remained flat at 5.2%.
* * *
NBS spokesman Fu Linghui attributed the slump in investment and retail sales to factors including heavy rainfall.
Fu also pointed to last year’s high level of spending driven by subsidies as well as the economy’s transition to new growth drivers.
“Since the second quarter, certain economic indicators slowed because of complex changes in the global environment as well as structural adjustment in the domestic economy,” said Fu in a briefing in Beijing.
“Some companies are facing difficulties. But looking at the overall trend, the momentum of the economy remains overall stable.”
Interestingly, Bloomberg notes that the worse-than-expected slump in retail sales and investment also reignited questions around their accuracy in gauging broader economic health.
The services production index, which inched up to 4.4% on year in May, has a stronger correlation with the pattern of growth in gross domestic product than retail sales, which comprised mostly goods, according to Yu Song, chief China economist at UBS Securities. Inconsistency in the fixed-asset investment data that became apparent last year also mean it might exaggerate the weakness, he said.
“Second-quarter GDP data looks to be weak, but not quite as weak as one would expect from April data,” Song told Bloomberg Television.
Some analysts estimated growth at near 4% in April, tracking below the government’s official full-year target of 4.5% to 5%.
The result of all this was initial yuan weakness (a day after reaching its strongest level since early 2023) and decline in Chinese stocks, but as the session wore on, those initial dips recovered (except for Hang Seng China Enterprises)…
…as the weakness reflexively raises market-watchers hopes for supportive stimulus:
“While there are pockets of strength in tech and export-related industries, the broader economy is still struggling,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank NV.
“This could eventually add pressure on policymakers to ease policy.”
But without stronger demand at home, the economy is at risk of a deeper slowdown even as the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz holds out the promise of stabilizing global shipping and energy prices.
Finally, Goldman sees downside risk to their Q2 real GDP growth forecast (4.0% qoq sa annualized and 4.7% yoy currently).
However, the latest development in the Middle East and recent policy communications bode well for a sequential growth improvement in Q3, especially given the significant unused government bond quota left for the remainder of this year.
Goldman sees July as an important window to monitor potential policy fine-tuning: if Q2 GDP disappoints meaningfully, there is a decent chance for policymakers to step up their easing rhetoric in the July Politburo meeting and draw on remaining fiscal buffers quickly to stabilize investment and growth.
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
ITALY
1000s Of Italian Protesters Demand Remigration In Rome
A demonstration of several thousand people took place in Rome on Saturday to advocate for remigration and stricter controls on immigration.
Coming from various regions across Italy, a crowd of roughly 3,000 individuals paraded through the nation’s capital behind a prominent sign declaring “Remigration and Recapture,“ a slogan used to call for the mandatory deportation of migrants back to their countries of origin.
The march drew participation from various right-wing organizations, including Casapound.
According to Luca Marsella, a spokesman for Casapound, their objective is clear. “We want to throw out the illegal immigrants because they shouldn’t be here.”
He further noted that their demands extend beyond those without legal status, adding, “And because we are not politically correct, we also say that we want to send home the legal immigrants who have obviously not adapted or integrated.”
Concurrently, Rome hosted the inaugural party congress for Futuro Nazionale (National Future), a newly established right-wing political group organized by Roberto Vannacci, a former general who now serves as an MEP.
Speaking to reporters at a press conference, Vannacci expressed an uncompromising stance on border control, asserting, “If it were up to me, no one should be allowed to enter Italy.”
Vannacci previously aligned with the anti-immigration League Party party led by Vice Prime Minister Matteo Salvini. His political emergence means that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, leader of the right-wing Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia), alongside her coalition allies, will contend with fresh rivals on the right.
Public opinion polls suggest that Futuro Nazionale could capture 4.5 percent of the electorate, drawing its strongest support from citizens who previously voted for League. Vannacci’s movement already possesses a foothold in the legislature, as eight sitting parliamentarians have already defected to join his ranks.
Tech trillionaire Elon Musk has said he will take legal action against German public broadcaster ZDF after it linked him to unrest in Belfast and accused him of helping instigate a “hunt” against migrants.
The dispute followed the attempted beheading of a man in Northern Ireland by a Sudanese migrant, which prompted British right-wing activist Tommy Robinson to call for nationwide protests. Musk shared Robinson’s post on X and added, “Only through repeated and loud protests will anything change.”
ZDF later used the incident in a segment on ZDFheute live, introducing it as part of a wider discussion about online agitation after violent crimes. Presenter Christina von Ungern-Sternberg said, A brutal attempted murder in broad daylight in Belfast. Someone films it. The video goes viral. A racist mob then hunts down migrants. This was called for by a British far-right extremist and tech billionaire Elon Musk.”
She then asked, “What’s behind it? Which actors have an interest in using a violent crime to incite civil war?”
The framing triggered criticism in Germany, including from journalists who said the broadcaster had gone beyond what Musk had actually written. Welt journalist Anna Schneider said, “ZDF is attributing a statement to Musk that he never made.”
NDR editor Sebastian Eberle also criticized the segment, writing on X, “Dear colleagues in Mainz, with all due respect, this is unacceptable. We cannot and must not work like this. This is completely unacceptable.”
ZDF later acknowledged that the wording in the segment had been flawed. Asked by Nius about the controversy, a ZDF spokesperson said, “The presenter was supposed to succinctly summarize the complex situation of the violently escalating protests and the previous calls for protests on X at the beginning of the very comprehensive and nuanced 30-minute program. However, the chosen wording was imprecise and therefore misleading.”
The broadcaster said Robinson had called for protests after the Belfast knife attack and that Musk had shared the post.
Musk responded on Monday by saying he would pursue legal action against the broadcaster. “Legal action is being taken against ZDF for their outrageous lies,” he wrote on X.
This isn’t the first time this year the broadcaster has been enveloped in controversy for its reporting. Back in February, the same program was forced to issue an on-air apology after it was found to have broadcast a segment containing AI-generated footage depicting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers arresting a migrant family.
“We invest a great deal of effort to provide you with verified information. This time, we failed to do so,” it said at the time.
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN//MONDAY NIGHT
Trump Details Iran Deal At G7: No Nukes, Conditional Sanctions Relief
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 02:30 PM
Summary:
Iran will not have a nuclear weapon under the new deal.
The agreement includes strong policing and enforcement powers.
Trump: Obama’s JCPOA was a horrible deal that led toward a bomb.
Past U.S. payments to Iran were a failed bribe attempt.
Sanctions relief will only happen if Iran complies with terms.
Iran gets no money or relief just for signing the deal.
A deal has been electronically signed by Iran’s Ghalibaf, according to US officials cited by CNBC
Opening the strait will take time due to mines, and to expect an increase in traffic in 1-2 weeks
Details to be released in 24-48 hours
Trump: Ships starting to move through strait or Hormuz
Vice President JD Vance Begins Optics Roadshow to Boost Investor Confidence On Deal
Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening
Deal Done
CNBC is reporting that a deal between the US and Iran has been electronically signed by Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. According to an unnamed US official, the US-Iran MOU provides for the ‘immediate’ reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, however – while President Trump said earlier that ships were beginning to move, the US official then said that reopening the strait would ‘take time’ due to mines, and that we can expect an increase in strait traffic over the next 1-2 weeks.
Trump addressed reporters and allies at the G7 summit in France on Monday, just hours after a major interim agreement with Iran that includes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and strict limits on Tehran’s nuclear program. Speaking alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, he repeatedly underscored that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was the central achievement of the deal.
“The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. “They fully agreed to that with strong policing powers.”
He then compared it to the Obama-era JCPOA, calling the earlier agreement “a horrible deal for the United States” that had put Iran on “a road to a nuclear weapon” while sending billions of dollars to Tehran. Trump was also sharply critical of past U.S. cash payments to Iran, describing the $1.7 billion withdrawal from banks plus tens of billions in additional spending as a failed attempt to “bribe them to make a deal that didn’t work.”
On the current arrangement, Trump stressed that any sanctions relief would be strictly behavioral and tied to compliance rather than granted simply for signing. He noted improved relations with Iran’s current leadership and reported that the Strait of Hormuz is already partially open, with mines being cleared and commercial shipping set to resume fully by Friday. Markets reacted immediately, with stocks surging and oil prices posting their biggest drop in some time.
Trump also called for an end to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, saying the long-running conflict “should NOT be tough” to address and that “we have to have a little talk with them.” Less than 24 hours after the Iran developments, he revealed he had already spoken with both President Zelensky and President Putin, describing the conversations as “very good” and expressing optimism that progress could be made to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine, where he noted roughly 25,000 people are dying each month.
Details of the MOU will be released over the next 24-48 hours, though one US official said that the MOU contains ‘possible’ $300 billion in reconstruction funding.
Ghalibaf notably came into public view for the first time in weeks in April to lead the Iranian delegation in talks in Islamabad with US Vice President DJ Vance – marking the highest-level contact between the two foes since before the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Trump
President Trump on Monday claimed on Truth Social that commercial ships loaded with oil are transiting the Strait of Hormuz followinmg an announced deal to end hostilities with Iran.
“Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz,” he wrote. “They are going along the Southern ‘Highway,’ which is totally safe, secure, and pristine. There are other areas of travel, also!!!”
Sunday evening Trump announced that the US and Iran had reached a tentative deal to end the war which was started by the Trump adminisgration and Israel on Feb. 28.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it had agreed to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) – according to state-run outelt IRNA.
VP Vance
Not even 24 hours after President Trump declared a peace deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and just 30 minutes before New York futures opened Sunday evening, the administration already had Vice President JD Vance beginning a media roadshow to calm investor nerves and boost confidence.
Vance began the Monday roadshow on CNBC, providing more details on the U.S.-Iran deal, as uncertainty is the market’s worst fear.
Vance said the U.S.-Iran deal is moving ahead despite what he called MSM “misreporting.”
“The agreement is fundamentally built around a two-step verification process,” Vance told the outlet, adding that Israel will have a seat at the table. Vance also stated that all Iranian government factions are represented in the talks, with several Iranian representatives expected at Friday’s signing ceremony.
On the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, Vance said the strait is already seeing increased traffic and is expected to remain open toll-free over the long term, not just temporarily. He added that Iran would need resources to rebuild, but those resources would not be available without a nuclear deal.
Vice President JD Vance on Monday said after the U.S. and Iran struck a preliminary deal that there are “a lot” of details that remain to be ironed out, but he expressed confidence that America has “all the cards” in subsequent talks.
The agreement reached Sunday would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and set up a framework for future negotiations about Tehran’s nuclear program and other key issues.
The text of the preliminary deal has yet to be released. Vance, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday morning, said the deal’s two major prongs are reopening the Strait of Hormuz and clinching a long-term commitment that Iran will never develop a nuclear weapon.
He indicated that if Iran abides by the deal’s commitments, it will be rewarded with loosened economic sanctions or other barriers, allowing Tehran “to be reinvited into the world economy.”
Vance is also expected to join CBS Mornings to discuss the U.S.-Iran peace deal. It is likely that Fox Business and other outlets will follow, as the administration must repair any political damage from four months of war with Iran, which created uncertainty on Wall Street and sent the national average for gasoline prices above $4 per gallon for 2.5 months.
Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening
The U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday evening, just 30 minutes before New York futures opened, with officials from both countries set to meet in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign the peace deal.
According to Iranian outlet Fars, the U.S.-Iran deal reportedly includes a 60-day toll-free window for vessels. After that period, if a more permanent deal is agreed upon, Tehran may seek to monetize the Hormuz chokepoint by charging commercial vessels for “services” tied to safety, navigation, environmental protection, and insurance.
Traffic on the Strait remains light on Monday morning, with hundreds of tankers waiting for the Hormuz waterway to officially reopen by the end of the week. But LNG tanker Disha did not wait for the formal opening and made a dash to exit the strait early Monday.
There are nearly 300 loaded vessels idling in the Persian Gulf, while a similar number of empty ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman to return to export terminals. Another 250 ballast vessels inside the Gulf are ready to pick up cargoes if outbound flows resume.
The reopening could release millions of barrels of trapped oil and restart LNG flows, but normalization of energy flows back to pre-war levels could take many months, if not quarters, and for Qatar’s sake, years.
“From the bridge and the engine room where we’re sitting, right now it looks very different to what the headlines may say,” said Angad Banga, CEO of maritime conglomerate The Caravel Group, which owns Fleet Management Limited, one of the world’s largest ship management companies.
Banga told Bloomberg that it has several crews trapped in the Persian Gulf area, adding, “We’ve seen positive signals before, and I think ultimately what matters is what holds.”
Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told the outlet, “Shipowners are on a risk spectrum — the Japanese, Koreans and Chinese are less open to high risk, while the Greeks have a different appetite — so we may see some people gearing up.”
Singh noted, “But by and large the rest of the market is still seeking more details and assurance before proceeding.”
Beyond the shipping industry, on Wall Street, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn told clients earlier this morning that “the test will be how quickly and to what extent the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Early indications suggest this may depend on Iran clearing naval mines over an initial 30-day period. But taken at face value, the news should be supportive for risk assets, pushing yields, oil and the US dollar lower, while equities move higher.”
Latest Hormuz trends via Kepler Cheuvreux shipping analyst Axel Styrman:
Daily arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz in 2026
Global trade & capacity trapped/waiting as of 22 May
Daily arrivals, Strait of Hormuz, # of ships per segment
Crude Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LNG Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LPG exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
Hormuz Fears Ease As Trump, Ghalibaf Virtually Sign US-Iran Deal, But Energy Flows Remain Months From Normal
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 07:20 AM
President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have virtually signed a peace deal to end the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian ports, the general Gulf region, and begin 60 days of nuclear negotiations, according to CNN, citing US senior sources.
The text of the so-called memorandum of understanding, a 14-point document that should lead to a two-month extension of the ceasefire and the start of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, has yet to be published.
But Trump stated overnight the deal terms will be released “pretty soon,” likely after the formal signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday. Trump, who is attending the G7 club summit in France, suggested that he would not attend the signing event at the end of the week.
VP Vance is expected to lead the American delegation in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign an interim peace deal with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Trump pushed back on MSM reports that his administration is considering a $300 billion fund for Iran as part of an agreement to end the war.
“Iran has agreed to never have a Nuclear Weapon! Also, the story that the U.S. is paying Iran 300 million Dollars is Fake News, put out by the Dumocrats!!!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
Trump’s Truth Social comments came shortly after VP Vance the Iranians “could have access” to a $300 billion reconstruction fund.
“That’s the sort of thing they could have access to, funded by the Gulf Coast coalition, so long as they honor their end of the obligation,” Vance told CBS News in an interview.
The interim peace deal signals a major diplomatic breakthrough, though Israel remains opposed. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he and Trump “do not always see eye to eye.” Conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah continued Monday in southern Lebanon.
With the Strait of Hormuz set to open on Friday, blockades and the clogged maritime chokepoint could soon be in the rearview mirror, but the effect on physical markets could last for months, if not longer.
Barclays commodities/energy research analyst Amarpreet Singh maintained his $100/b forecast for Brent this year.
Singh explained:
If the tentative agreement to ease the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is realized, the timing of the restoration of freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could fall largely in line with our end-June baseline. We maintain our view that Brent should average $100/b in 2026 in that scenario.
This marks the 16th week of the Iran war and the first eleven weeks led to a more than 350 mb decline in global total oil inventories. Last week, US commercial total oil inventories were already below the trough of early 2022 and declining at a fast pace.
We forecast a small deficit in Q3 26 in our baseline, as the cyclical demand vector is the strongest since 2022. We recommend going long the Dec 26 minus Dec 27 calendar spread in Brent futures, at $4.67/b at the time of writing.
Normalization of physical energy markets could take many months.
He continued:
The US and Iran have reached an agreement to ease restrictions on trade flows through the Middle East Gulf, with formalization expected by Friday. While early indications suggest that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could be restored by month‑end, this does not imply an immediate normalization of physical oil supply chains. Despite this, oil prices have moved sharply lower: prompt‑month Brent and WTI are down around 5% on the day, and the forwards‑implied 2026 Brent average has fallen to $86/b, well below our $100/b forecast. We maintain our view. Inventories are already extremely tight and continue to draw, and our balances point to a modest deficit in Q3 2026 – conditions that are inconsistent with the magnitude of the current price pullback.
This marks the 16th week since the Iran war began. We have inventory data for 14 of those weeks, with the latest observation for the week ending 5 June (Figure 1). Adjusting for shipping lags – typically two to three weeks for Middle East Gulf flows based on last year’s trade patterns – and using pre‑pandemic seasonality (2017–19 average), the first 11 weeks of the conflict resulted in a cumulative 352 mb decline in global total oil inventories, based on our weekly global total oil inventory indicator (Figure 2).
Translating the observed ~4.6 mb/d cumulative inventory draw over this period using the historical beta between inventory changes and market imbalance implies an underlying deficit of roughly 7.3 mb/d on a seasonally adjusted basis. This compares with our non‑seasonally adjusted estimated deficit of 6.6 mb/d for Q2 26. Given that Q2 typically runs a small surplus, realized outcomes to date remain broadly consistent with our balance estimates.
A common pushback to our view is that a significant share of recent inventory draws reflects releases from strategic reserves, which would limit price implications (Figure 3). Our response is that, adjusted for long‑term seasonality, US commercial total oil inventories stood 7 mb below the early‑2022 trough as of 5 June and have been declining at a weekly rate of 11 mb over the past four weeks (Figure 4). Even if the Strait normalizes by month‑end, we expect this tightening trend to persist at least through July. Moreover, unlike in 2022, current US SPR releases are structured as loans rather than outright supply additions.
This raises a key question: with commercial inventories entering peak demand season at historically tight levels and the cyclical demand impulse the strongest since 2022, why should prices not be materially higher? Around 60% of oil demand is tied to the production and movement of goods. While a gradual easing toward $80/b Brent by end‑2027 appears plausible, we see near‑term risks to prices as skewed to the upside.
Key overnight developments (courtsey of Bloomberg):
US-Iran Deal Framework
The US and Iran are preparing to formally sign their interim peace deal in Switzerland on Friday, with a 14-point memorandum of understanding that should lead to a two-month ceasefire extension and the start of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program
The text of the memorandum of understanding has yet to be published, though a senior US official said it’s possible that happens in the next two days
Iran claims the lifting of the US naval blockade has begun and entered the implementation phase, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi
Iran will allow free Hormuz transit for 60 days under the pact
Trump Administration Statements
President Trump said the US is dealing with ‘rational’ people in Iran now and described Iran’s current leadership as ‘nice’ to deal with
Trump stated that Iran will suffer if it tries to attain a nuclear weapon and that Iran will not develop or buy a nuclear weapon
Trump said the deal with Iran can survive if Israel attacks Lebanon, though he is ‘not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah’
Israel-Lebanon Tensions
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the deal ending the war with the US would require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon
Iran’s foreign minister said any Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanon, or any strikes on the country, would constitute a violation of the US-Iran deal
Israeli officials said Monday that troops would stay in Lebanon, as ‘Trump’s agreement does not bind us’
Netanyahu Political Impact
Benjamin Netanyahu has staked his political future on his relationship with Donald Trump, but that’s become a liability now that the US president has cut a deal with Iran that much of Israel opposes •
Netanyahu is preparing for an election this fall and must contend with an agreement that will leave the Islamic Republic intact, an unpalatable prospect to Israelis of all stripes
Strait of Hormuz Reopening
Two Iran-linked tankers are sailing eastward through the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the US and Iran signing an interim peace agreement on Friday that would re-open the waterway
Qatar is planning to rapidly boost LNG production once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, aiming to restore most of its export capacity within two months
QatarEnergy told buyers it expects to raise output to about 50% of capacity a month after safe passage through the strait is restored, and to roughly 80% within two months
END
TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Deal Doubts Arise As Lebanese, Iranian Officials Say US Must Rein In Israel To Secure Regional Peace
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 11:36 AM
Summary:
Iran Says Peace Deal Requires Israeli Withdrawal From Lebanon
Hormuz Fears Ease As Trump, Ghalibaf Virtually Sign US-Iran Deal, But Energy Flows Remain Months From Normal
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, held a call earlier, urging the U.S. to compel Israel to end its bloody war on Lebanon, stop home demolitions, and withdraw from occupied Lebanese territory, according to Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency.
Iranian officials earlier said that any agreement with the US aimed at peace requires Israel to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon.
AA continued:
The call came during a phone call between Berri and Qalibaf in which they discussed the latest regional developments following a US-Iran agreement to end their war all on fronts, including Lebanon, according to the Lebanese state news agency NNA.
The two officials also reviewed “the military and political developments related to the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, particularly the clause concerning ending the Israeli war on Lebanon,” the agency said.
They stressed “the need for the United States, the guarantors of the memorandum of understanding and the international community to assume their responsibilities by compelling Israel to end its war, stop demolishing villages, respect Lebanon’s sovereignty and immediately withdraw from the territories it has occupied.”
Meanwhile, I24NEWS Hebrew reporter Guy Azriel wrote on X, “I can now confirm that Israel formally requested access to the Iran MoU and was denied. A remarkable and highly unusual development between close allies on an issue of such critical national security importance.”
President Trump has criticized Israel’s handling of its combat operations against Hezbollah as too bloody.
Hormuz Fears Ease As Trump, Ghalibaf Virtually Sign US-Iran Deal, But Energy Flows Remain Months From Normal
President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have virtually signed a peace deal to end the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian ports, the general Gulf region, and begin 60 days of nuclear negotiations, according to CNN, citing US senior sources.
The text of the so-called memorandum of understanding, a 14-point document that should lead to a two-month extension of the ceasefire and the start of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, has yet to be published.
But Trump stated overnight the deal terms will be released “pretty soon,” likely after the formal signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday. Trump, who is attending the G7 club summit in France, suggested that he would not attend the signing event at the end of the week.
VP Vance is expected to lead the American delegation in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign an interim peace deal with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Trump pushed back on MSM reports that his administration is considering a $300 billion fund for Iran as part of an agreement to end the war.
“Iran has agreed to never have a Nuclear Weapon! Also, the story that the U.S. is paying Iran 300 million Dollars is Fake News, put out by the Dumocrats!!!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
Trump’s Truth Social comments came shortly after VP Vance, the Iranians “could have access” to a $300 billion reconstruction fund.
“That’s the sort of thing they could have access to, funded by the Gulf Coast coalition, so long as they honor their end of the obligation,” Vance told CBS News in an interview.
The interim peace deal signals a major diplomatic breakthrough, though Israel remains opposed. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he and Trump “do not always see eye to eye.” Conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah continued Monday in southern Lebanon.
With the Strait of Hormuz set to open on Friday, blockades and the clogged maritime chokepoint could soon be in the rearview mirror, but the effect on physical markets could last for months, if not longer.
Barclays commodities/energy research analyst Amarpreet Singh maintained his $100/b forecast for Brent this year.
Singh explained:
If the tentative agreement to ease the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is realized, the timing of the restoration of freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could fall largely in line with our end-June baseline. We maintain our view that Brent should average $100/b in 2026 in that scenario.
This marks the 16th week of the Iran war and the first eleven weeks led to a more than 350 mb decline in global total oil inventories. Last week, US commercial total oil inventories were already below the trough of early 2022 and declining at a fast pace.
We forecast a small deficit in Q3 26 in our baseline, as the cyclical demand vector is the strongest since 2022. We recommend going long the Dec 26 minus Dec 27 calendar spread in Brent futures, at $4.67/b at the time of writing.
Normalization of physical energy markets could take many months.
He continued:
The US and Iran have reached an agreement to ease restrictions on trade flows through the Middle East Gulf, with formalization expected by Friday. While early indications suggest that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could be restored by month‑end, this does not imply an immediate normalization of physical oil supply chains. Despite this, oil prices have moved sharply lower: prompt‑month Brent and WTI are down around 5% on the day, and the forwards‑implied 2026 Brent average has fallen to $86/b, well below our $100/b forecast. We maintain our view. Inventories are already extremely tight and continue to draw, and our balances point to a modest deficit in Q3 2026 – conditions that are inconsistent with the magnitude of the current price pullback.
This marks the 16th week since the Iran war began. We have inventory data for 14 of those weeks, with the latest observation for the week ending 5 June (Figure 1). Adjusting for shipping lags – typically two to three weeks for Middle East Gulf flows based on last year’s trade patterns – and using pre‑pandemic seasonality (2017–19 average), the first 11 weeks of the conflict resulted in a cumulative 352 mb decline in global total oil inventories, based on our weekly global total oil inventory indicator (Figure 2).
Translating the observed ~4.6 mb/d cumulative inventory draw over this period using the historical beta between inventory changes and market imbalance implies an underlying deficit of roughly 7.3 mb/d on a seasonally adjusted basis. This compares with our non‑seasonally adjusted estimated deficit of 6.6 mb/d for Q2 26. Given that Q2 typically runs a small surplus, realized outcomes to date remain broadly consistent with our balance estimates.
A common pushback to our view is that a significant share of recent inventory draws reflects releases from strategic reserves, which would limit price implications (Figure 3). Our response is that, adjusted for long‑term seasonality, US commercial total oil inventories stood 7 mb below the early‑2022 trough as of 5 June and have been declining at a weekly rate of 11 mb over the past four weeks (Figure 4). Even if the Strait normalizes by month‑end, we expect this tightening trend to persist at least through July. Moreover, unlike in 2022, current US SPR releases are structured as loans rather than outright supply additions.
This raises a key question: with commercial inventories entering peak demand season at historically tight levels and the cyclical demand impulse the strongest since 2022, why should prices not be materially higher? Around 60% of oil demand is tied to the production and movement of goods. While a gradual easing toward $80/b Brent by end‑2027 appears plausible, we see near‑term risks to prices as skewed to the upside.
Key overnight developments (courtsey of Bloomberg):
US-Iran Deal Framework
The US and Iran are preparing to formally sign their interim peace deal in Switzerland on Friday, with a 14-point memorandum of understanding that should lead to a two-month ceasefire extension and the start of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program
The text of the memorandum of understanding has yet to be published, though a senior US official said it’s possible that happens in the next two days
Iran claims the lifting of the US naval blockade has begun and entered the implementation phase, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi
Iran will allow free Hormuz transit for 60 days under the pact
Trump Administration Statements
President Trump said the US is dealing with ‘rational’ people in Iran now and described Iran’s current leadership as ‘nice’ to deal with
Trump stated that Iran will suffer if it tries to attain a nuclear weapon and that Iran will not develop or buy a nuclear weapon
Trump said the deal with Iran can survive if Israel attacks Lebanon, though he is ‘not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah’
Israel-Lebanon Tensions
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the deal ending the war with the US would require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon
Iran’s foreign minister said any Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanon, or any strikes on the country, would constitute a violation of the US-Iran deal
Israeli officials said Monday that troops would stay in Lebanon, as ‘Trump’s agreement does not bind us’
Netanyahu Political Impact
Benjamin Netanyahu has staked his political future on his relationship with Donald Trump, but that’s become a liability now that the US president has cut a deal with Iran that much of Israel opposes •
Netanyahu is preparing for an election this fall and must contend with an agreement that will leave the Islamic Republic intact, an unpalatable prospect to Israelis of all stripes
Strait of Hormuz Reopening
Two Iran-linked tankers are sailing eastward through the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the US and Iran signing an interim peace agreement on Friday that would re-open the waterway
Qatar is planning to rapidly boost LNG production once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, aiming to restore most of its export capacity within two months
QatarEnergy told buyers it expects to raise output to about 50% of capacity a month after safe passage through the strait is restored, and to roughly 80% within two months
ISRAEL TBN.;..
ISRAEL/IRAN
IDF, Mossad largely oppose Iran nuclear deal, favor continued sanctions against Tehran
IDF and Mossad officials largely view the emerging Iran nuclear deal as insufficient, warning it leaves missiles and proxy threats unaddressed.
Illustrative image of a Mossad agent standing in front of Mossad vs Iran concept flags on a wall with a crack.(photo credit: Canva, DC Studio/Shutterstock, OnePixelStudio/Shutterstock)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBJUNE 15, 2026 17:56Updated: JUNE 15, 2026 21:21
The vast majority of IDF and Mossad top brass oppose the emerging Iran nuclear deal as insufficient in light of the power dynamics between the parties, the “blood and treasure” invested, and the threats confronting Israel, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
While that view is not unanimous, and senior Israeli officials understand the need to defer to Israel’s political echelon and to the Trump administration on certain matters, it is nearly unanimous, and senior officers and officials are making their views heard in private forums, the Post has been told.
The Trump administration has been almost entirely focused on opening the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue. The IDF and Mossad had hoped for progress on the issues of ballistic missiles and terrorist proxies, which they have had to deal with on a daily basis for years, the Post understands.
These issues have been left out of the deal.
Furthermore, many senior Mossad officials and some IDF officers believe it is important to keep Iran under sanctions until the regime changes its tune in a broader way to stop threatening Israel or until it is toppled.
Officials betting on sanctions pressure
Some Mossad officials, although fewer IDF officers, believe the Iranian regime likely would fall within the year if financial sanctions pressure remains, given that the country lost more than $300 billion from being bombed and has been losing huge additional sums daily since the US counter-blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, the Post has learned.
They believe that even if Iran held out against financial sanctions from 2018-2026, the combined new pressure of the damages to the regime from the 2026 war, along with the Hormuz blockade, would finally push enough Iranians over the threshold to be willing and able to topple the regime, the Post was told.
In light of the billions of dollars expected to stream to the regime once the new deal is signed, many IDF and Mossad top brass now fear that any prospect of regime change could be delayed far past a year from now, missing a unique opportunity to make Israel and the world safer for generations.
END
HEZBOLLAH
June 16, 12:45 AM
THAT DID NOT TAKE LONG FOR HEZBOLLAH TO BREAK THE CEASEFIRE!@
(jerusalemPost)
Hezbollah launches missiles, mortar shells at IDF troops in southern Lebanon, military says
The Air Force intercepted numerous missiles launched by Hezbollah towards troops operating in southern Lebanon, the military announced on Monday. No sirens were activated.
Additionally, Hezbollah launched an anti-tank missile and mortar shells at soldiers operating in southern Lebanon, added the IDF. No injuries were reported in the incident.
Also on Monday, terrorists traveling in vehicles approached IDF troops in four separate incidents. The IDF identified the terrorists and carried out precise strikes against them, said the military.
Hezbollah has received assurances from its backer Iran that it will demand a withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon in its next phase of talks with the United States, Hezbollah’s media relations office tells Reuters.
An IDF withdrawal will be the result of, and not a pre-condition for, continuing talks between Tehran and Washington following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the two countries on Friday, Hezbollah says.
The group tells Reuters that there will be “no nuclear deal between Iran and the United States unless the Israelis withdraw” from Lebanon.
Iran is poised to gradually return to the US-led Western order within certain limits exactly as Iran’s moderate faction has long wanted, its hardline faction has successfully preserved the armed forces and their missile stockpile, while Israel achieved none of its goals in its most epic defeat ever.
Iran and the US plan to sign a Zarif-inspired memorandum of understanding (MoU) on ending the Third Gulf War this Friday in Switzerland. The exact details aren’t yet known, and Fortune reported that there were at least three competing texts, but all of them “include similar elements around reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, giving Iran sanctions relief and opening the door to longer-term negotiations around its nuclear program.” That’s already enough to arrive at several very important conclusions.
For starters, reopening the strait without Iran’s wartime petroyuan toll booth in place would represent a significant concession by the Islamic Republic, whose media surrogates celebrated this model as an historic multipolar milestone. The same goes for resuming negotiations on its politically sensitive nuclear program. The sanctions relief in exchange might arguably be worth it, however, judging by this estimate here of the profound economic-financial damage caused by the US’ (imperfect) blockade.
On that topic, it was explained here in late March that “The US will have lost the Third Gulf War if China can still rely on Iran as a reliable low-cost energy supplier while turning the yuan into a global reserve currency that challenges the petrodollar”, so preventing both is imperative from the US’ perspective.
With the petroyuan reportedly out of the picture, that leaves Iran’s oil export dependence on China, but sanctions relief could help gradually redirect its sales (such as to India) without disrupting the market.
Likewise, if reports about a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran are true (even if the final sum is much lower but still tens of billions of dollars), then US and Gulf investments in Iran’s energy industry could lead to them controlling its exports.
Iran’s moderate (“reformist”) and hardline (“principalist”) factions would therefore achieve some of their goals, the first with respect to sanctions relief and the second with regards to preserving the country’s (arguably battered) armed forces as well as their missile stockpile, not to mention their political system.
Nevertheless, the factional balance would have shifted in the moderate’s favor since the US wouldn’t sign a MoU if the moderates couldn’t control “rogue” hardliners, who could potentially rekindle the war.
It can therefore be concluded that the moderates beat the hardliners in Iran’s deep state power struggle, but this was due to the US and Israel killing dozens of top hardline figures, after which their respective institutions (especially the IRGC) were weakened and ultimately tamed by the moderates.
To be sure, “rogue” hardliners – regardless of their relationship to the IRGC – could still sabotage the MoU, but Trump 2.0 feels comfortable enough that they won’t otherwise it wouldn’t go through with the signing.
A new regional era is emerging whereby the Third Gulf War might very well lead to Iran’s gradual reincorporation into the US-led Western order, albeit within limits, which lays the groundwork for better ties with its Gulf neighbors.
Hardline Israeli Politicians Livid Over Iran Deal, Want Netanyahu Out So They Can Do ‘Real Regime Change’
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 02:00 PM
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett didn’t mince words on Monday: the clock for regime change in Iran starts ticking the moment Israel gets a new government.
Speaking at the Knesset, Bennett unloaded on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership, declaring that his term “began with a civil war, continued with the massacre of October 7, and ends with a historic failure against Iran.” He tied any serious effort to topple the Iranian regime directly to political change in Jerusalem.
Bennett promised that under new leadership he would revive the “Octopus Doctrine” – hitting Iran with every tool available while blocking its nuclear path – and fix the IDF’s manpower crisis by ending haredi draft exemptions. “When there are no soldiers, you have to conquer the same point again and again, and that way you can’t win,” he said. “We can restore security to Israel.”
Hardliners and Hawks Slam the Deal
Bennett wasn’t alone. Several hardline and hawkish voices erupted in fury over the reported Trump-brokered US-Iran ceasefire agreement, blasting it as a lifeline to the Ayatollahs that leaves Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missiles, and regional proxies largely intact, the jpost.comreports.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir was blistering on X:
“Trump’s agreement does not bind us. Israel is not subject to the United States, and we are an independent and sovereign nation! We are not partners to this agreement that does not ensure our security… We must not compromise on anything less than the dismantling of Hezbollah, we must not withdraw from any territory that our fighters have captured and cleared of terror infrastructure…” – Itamar Ben-Gvir on X, June 15, 2026
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich was equally blunt:
“The agreement with Iran is bad for Israel and for the entire free world. Period… We will need to continue the campaign to topple the regime ourselves and in creative ways and ensure that Iran never has nuclear weapons.” – Bezalel Smotrich on X, June 15, 2026
Yair Golan, leader of The Democrats, went further, calling the deal a strategic disaster engineered while Netanyahu stood “weak, sick, isolated, and lacking influence.” He accused Netanyahu of being “good for Hamas… good for Iran… good for Hezbollah” and declared:
“Replacing him is not just a political necessity – it is an existential security imperative.” – Yair Golan on X, June 15, 2026
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot described an “abyss” between the government’s empty “total victory” promises and the reality of a failed leadership that had abandoned Israeli residents. Centrist Benny Gantz warned that any restrictions on Israel’s freedom of action in Lebanon or withdrawals that endanger the north were unacceptable.
The Core Demand: No More Half-Measures
Across these statements runs a clear through-line: the current government is too weak, too constrained by American pressure, and too compromised to deliver the decisive blow against Iran and Hezbollah. Bennett and Golan explicitly frame real regime-change pressure as something that can only happen after Netanyahu is gone. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, still in the coalition, are already signaling they will not be bound by the deal and will push for maximalist goals anyway.
Defense Minister Israel Katz tried to draw a harder line by vowing the IDF would stay in security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza “indefinitely.” But the louder chorus from Bennett, the hard right, and parts of the opposition is that only new leadership – or at least a complete break from Netanyahu’s approach – can deliver the aggressive, multi-front campaign they believe is necessary.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Trump Calls On Putin To Reach Deal With Ukraine After Zelenskyy Meeting
“We had a very good meeting,” Trump told reporters after the meeting. “Russia should make a deal. Russia has lost tremendous amounts of people and so has Ukraine.”
Before the roundtable, Trump confirmed he also had a private discussion with Zelenskyy.
“I’m meeting with him again later on today,” he added.
Trump made these comments during his bilateral meeting with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, on the sidelines of the G7 summit.
“I’m going to do whatever I can,” Trump said, to end the war in Ukraine.
Trump said he wants to focus on Ukraine now, saying Iran will soon be “back in the rearview mirror.”
Leaders of the world’s seven largest advanced economies have gathered in Evian-les-Bains, a lakeside town in eastern France, from June 15 to June 17 for their annual summit.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine is stronger now than it was at last year’s G7 summit in Canada.
“Ukraine is in a different position,” von der Leyen said at a press conference in Evian on June 15. “Ukraine is holding the frontline and even partially regaining territory.“
She also praised the speed at which Ukraine was becoming a top producer of advanced military equipment.
“On the other hand, Russia is feeling the strain and pressure. Our sanctions are biting and cutting deep,” she added.
In August 2025, Trump invited Putin to a meeting in Alaska to discuss a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. However, the meeting ended with no breakthrough.
Before heading to France, Trump said he had spoken separately with both Putin and Zelenskyy on the phone on June 15.
“We had a very good conversation yesterday with President Zelenskiy and President Putin, and I think maybe we can do something there,” he said following his bilateral meeting with Macron on June 15. “I really do. I think they’re both open to it.”
He said that now the Iran deal is finalized, “we’re going to be focusing on that.”
On June 15, Ukraine officially began European Union membership negotiations, launching a process that will require its government to commit to years of political reforms even as it fights the Russian invasion.
Ukraine sees EU membership as a security guarantee for a stable future once the war ends.
Thirty-two new deaths and 72 new cases have been confirmed in the central African country, Congo’s Ministry of Communications said in a statement.
The cumulative number of cases is up to 782, and the cumulative number of deaths is 181.
The case fatality rate, or the percentage of sick people who have died, is 23.1 percent.
The outbreak, which was first detected in May but believed to have started earlier, has also spread to two additional health zones in Congo, officials said. One of the new zones is in Ituri province, where most of the cases are; the second is in North Kivu province.
The three provinces with reported cases are all in eastern Congo.
Health officials have been working to identify suspected cases and encourage people with symptoms to travel to health facilities.
“Vigilance remains essential. Anyone presenting with fever, vomiting, diarrhea, or any other suspicious symptoms must go immediately to the nearest health facility for prompt care,” the ministry stated. “Adherence to preventive measures – particularly regular handwashing, acceptance of contact tracing, and avoidance of any contact with sick or deceased individuals from suspected causes – remains crucial to curb the spread of the epidemic.”
The largest Ebola outbreak in history was in West Africa and ran from 2014 through 2016. There were 28,610 reported cases, and 11,308 reported deaths.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a June 11 paper that, if crucial public health measures are not implemented, the new outbreak could become as large as the 2014 outbreak.
“Although the worst outcomes (higher numbers of cases and associated deaths) in these projections were less likely when a larger proportion of patients were identified, isolated, and treated, this outbreak could, within 3 months and under low-isolation scenarios, become the second largest Ebola outbreak in history,” the CDC said.
Ebola is a disease caused by orthoebolaviruses. The current outbreak is caused by the rarely seen Bundibugyo virus.
Transmission primarily happens through direct contact with bodily fluids from infected individuals.
While Ebola can in many cases be deadly, 56 people have recovered in the outbreak in Congo, according to the latest figures.
Another 359 patients are in isolation or being treated in a hospital.
Uganda, which shares a border with Congo, has reported 19 Ebola cases and two deaths. Ugandan officials said Monday that there have been no cases for 10 days.
A new type of radar to detect drones nearby ports, vessels, harbours, and critical maritime infrastructure has been introduced. Developed by Robin Radar Systems, IRIS OTM at Sea is designed for seamless land-to-sea deployments.
The new system is a major expansion of its IRIS On-The-Move (OTM) capability.
The comprehensive update is aimed at strengthening counter-UAS protection for shipping lanes, naval operations, and coastal assets.
Offshore Assets Are Exposed To Low-Cost Aerial Threats
“What we are seeing globally is that the drone threat is no longer confined to the battlefield or to land-based infrastructure. Shipping lanes, ports, harbours and offshore assets are now all exposed to low-cost aerial threats that can disrupt trade, damage infrastructure and threaten civilian safety,” said Siete Hamminga, CEO, Robin Radar Systems.
“The Strait of Hormuz has once again demonstrated how vulnerable critical maritime corridors can become during periods of instability. IRIS OTM at Sea is being designed to answer that challenge with a rapidly deployable, software-defined capability that can move seamlessly between land and sea.”
IRIS OTM At Sea Will Detect, Track, And Classify Drones
Originally developed to operate from moving land vehicles traveling at speeds exceeding 62 mph (100km/h), IRIS On-The-Move will now be adapted for maritime environments through advanced software enhancements that compensate for sea clutter, vessel movement, and challenging coastal conditions, according to a press release.
Designed to be mounted on vessels, IRIS OTM at Sea will detect, track, and classify drones while travelling at speeds of up to 54 knots, operating effectively in extreme environments thanks to its salt- and corrosion-resistant engineering, resonance tolerance, and EMC-compliant architecture.
Unlike traditional static radars, IRIS is designed to move with the threat itself, providing persistent situational awareness across highly dynamic environments, as per the release.
The company revealed that the radar’s software architecture will be updated to filter out heavy sea reflections and environmental clutter to isolate small airborne threats operating close to the waterline, an increasingly important capability as drone incursions continue to evolve across maritime theatres.
Robin Radar Systems highlighted that the maritime update has been shaped directly by operational lessons from ongoing live-fire environments, where the need for flexible, mobile counter-UAS systems capable of protecting dynamic environments has accelerated dramatically. The company’s engineering teams reportedly adapted the system specifically to address the increasing use of fixed-wing drones and low-altitude aerial threats around strategic shipping corridors and maritime infrastructure.
“Modern security demands speed and flexibility. Operators need systems that can deploy quickly, integrate easily, and adapt as threats evolve,” said Vivien Croes, Chief Technical Officer, Robin Radar Systems.
“What makes this update important is that we are taking a combat-proven radar and extending its capabilities into one of the most operationally complex environments in the world. The future of counter-UAS is not static infrastructure, it is agile, mobile sensing systems capable of protecting people, critical infrastructure and global commerce wherever threats emerge.”
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER.
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Sign(s) Here, Here, And Here
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 11:40 AM
By Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank
After pricing in nearly 40 pronouncements of US victory since early April, markets have naturally embraced a US-Iran ‘deal’ now e-signed —with a thumbs up emoji?– so all that’s left is a ceremony to mark the event on Friday. That and the details of what was signed, which are still lacking from the US. In their absence, we get more polymetis spin from both sides.
Iran is saying they got everything they wanted, and there are signs of that. Weeks ago, it was floated Iran would receive a $300bn reconstruction fund, a fanciful idea for a country that lost the war. However, it’s true – though the GCC will pay for it. Some see that behind IRGC rhetoric this could be a perestroika moment, e.g., if US firms win big contracts. Or it could just be the US making the GCC give Iran $300bn.
There is shock and fury in Israel at the deal, which they don’t have the details of either, and the prospect of having their hands tied against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. PM Netanyahu is taking a political hit ahead of elections he was already behind in the polls in.
We also aren’t hearing anything about regime change anymore; or ballistic missiles; or Iran’s proxies; and Trump has watered down his ‘nuclear dust’ demands so that Iran can down-blend its 60% highly enriched uranium to a civilian level under supervision.
What we are hearing about is the reopening of Hormuz, which Trump claims has already happened: however, ‘mine your language’ on what that means. A US official says it might take 1-2 weeks to get energy flowing through the strait again. Other maritime experts suggest it could take 40-50 days. Japan, the UK, and some European states may send mine-sweepers to help speed that process, but they would take weeks to arrive. Recall it then takes weeks for energy cargoes to arrive at their final destinations if/when an exodus of trapped ships begins. That said, this morning three Iranian oil tankers and two ships carrying essential goods reportedly passed the US naval blockade.
Iran also states ships can transit Hormuz freely for the 60-day negotiation period with the US, but after that it will charge de facto tolls. That’s something the US opposes and is a significant flashpoint – alongside many others. If you are a crude carrier, once you finally escape Hormuz, do you return knowing a geopolitical deadline is ticking down, or opt for new routes?
In short, this isn’t a deal: it’s a “page and a half general” MoU (says VP Vance) to try to get a deal via performance-related incentives – but with equal ones to blow it up at different times.
From Israel’s perspective, the sooner this deal collapses the better. The PM has just restated that preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon remains his life’s mission, and that struggle isn’t over yet.
From Iran’s perspective, there is a case to see the deal collapse within months. Indeed, if Tehran cannot get the benefits promised by the US because it won’t take the steps required of it, then it arguably has little incentive to keep Hormuz open. Why allow energy to flow freely, taking pressure off the US and the world, while the GCC and others build alternative supply chains that reduce the strait’s strategic threat? Use it or lose it makes more sense, geopolitically.
From Trump’s perspective, the deal needs to hold until the midterm elections. However, on the other side of that, anything goes. On Monday the president reiterated that if Iran won’t buckle on his (revised) nuclear terms, he will restart bombing and would make the US “the guardian of the Middle East” in return for 20% of the region’s oil revenues.
In short, The Hormuz Odyssey continues, but we are monitoring the situation closely and will reassess once more details are available.
Meanwhile, there are other important developments that might once have been headline news.
The EU officially launched a Ukraine and Moldova accession process, as Moscow once again escalates its attacks on Kyiv. Obviously, this process could run for years, but like Hormuz, it is a development of vast geostrategic significance. That’s as the EU’s Kallas claimed China trained Russian troops and the Union is weighing sanctions and tariffs. Four days ago, The Economist argued, ‘A trade war between the EU and China seems inevitable’: some said the same four years ago. While the EU perhaps following the US stance towards China might not be as market-moving as the original (and sustained) US effort, it is hugely significant for the physical economy.
In related data today, Chinese retail sales dropped 0.6% y-o-y in May vs. -0.2% expected and rose just 1.4% y-o-y year-to-date (YTD), nearly negative in real terms, and underlining the parlous state of local consumption. Investment spending was -4.1% y-o-y YTD vs. -2.3% consensus, and property investment was -16.2% y-o-y YTD. By contrast, industrial production was 4.5% y-o-y and 5.4% y-o-y YTD, which logically has to flow abroad to find demand, raising trade tensions.
That backdrop raises the question of how much the EU and US want to fight each other at the same time. There, the US will use the G7 meeting today and tomorrow to push its ‘no-China’ critical minerals plan to decouple western supply chains upstream… which will logically argue for further decoupling downstream over time. It remains to be seen if others will line up behind it, however.
Lastly, two days ahead of a crucial UK byelection in Makerfield, where a victory for the would-be Labour Prime Minister Burnham would only be possible via a split on the right between the anti-EU Reform UK and the even more deeply anti-EU Restore UK, a Financial Times op-ed argues ‘Britain’s return to the EU is only a matter of time.’ That odyssey also continues on and on…
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS//ENERGY COMMENTARIES
ROBERT H. …. IMPORTANT
When lights go out
Last week a friend of mine texted me about Cushing. I spoke to him to understand what he was trying to caution me about.
Well did some homework.
June 22 is the date Cushing falls below its operational minimum; lower than 20 million barrels.” June 22 is seven days from today.
When Cushing stops operating, refineries will cease receiving crude oil to refine. Now, maybe those refineries have some on-site storage themselves; I don’t know. Even if they do, it likely isn’t much. Have no idea how much oil sits in tank farms in the Gulf that helps.
At some point soon after June 22, SOME refineries may have to shut down. No more production of Gasoline, Diesel Fuel, Aviation fuel, Bunker Fuel (for ocean-going ships). When that happens, regions served by certain refineries will then have to begin using whatever Reserve Refined Products it has.
The New York fuel reserve is 45 days of gasoline. Not sure if it’s the same for Diesel, Aviation, or Bunker fuels. For Aviation fuel Delta hauls in its’ own oil by train into Philadelphia where they have their own refinery. But one thing is certain, the 45 day reserve for New York City and New Jersey is presently the largest reserve in America. What the rest of states have is unknown.
So as many people celebrate the “Agreement” between the US and Iran, to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, Iran said today, the Strait will not re-open until at least this coming Friday (to make certain Israel honors to ceasefire in Lebanon.) This may not be the case. Israel will beat to its’ own drummer. So this could well be all smoke as to fuel availability.
It takes at least 20-30 days for an oil tanker ship to travel from the Middle East to America. It is doubtful that America will supply anything to Europe as they have been past next week in refined fuels.
Once those tankers arrive to the US and begin off-loading, it takes a week to refine the fuel, then another week to distribute it to regional distribution systems, then another week to truck it out to gas stations.
See the problem?
The gap between when the oil arrives, and when it gets to gas stations is such that Reserves will NOT cover the gap. Parts of America are going to run dry of fuel. Then what ???
And what does that really mean for the rest of the world ?????
We can be certain that fuel surcharges will be evident on most goods soon enough.
END
From Hormuz To Houston: The US Takeover Of Global Energy Flows Ramps Up
The Americas are replacing the Middle East as the key source of global oil supply, with crude exports from the Western Hemisphere hitting a record 14.5 million bpd while Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed.
Trump’s broader energy strategy aims to weaken OPEC’s influence and cement U.S. dominance over global energy markets.
Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil are emerging as the biggest growth engines, with Venezuela rebuilding output, Argentina rapidly expanding Vaca Muerta shale production, and Brazil reaching record production levels.
Oil exports from the U.S. and its ‘Americas’ sphere of influence continue to be the prime beneficiary from the drop in crude output leaving the Middle East. Industry figures showed dirty tanker shipments from the Americas hit an all-time high of 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, up from 13.8 million bpd in April, and a 40% increase from May 2025. Meanwhile, transits through the key Strait of Hormuz global oil route dropped 89% from February to May, with total ship movements dropping from over 3,700 to around 400. “The pattern is likely to continue even when the Strait [of Hormuz] opens up again, as it’ll take months for Middle East volumes to recover to their former levels [before the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict], and some key sites will take several years to do so,” a senior source who works closely with the European Union’s (E.U.) energy security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “Meanwhile, the U.S. has ramped up its own [oil] production to record levels and is helping countries in the Americas — Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil, mainly — to do the same,” he added. “It marks a long-term shift in the centre of the world’s global oil and gas gravity,” he underlined.
This is precisely what U.S. President Donald Trump wanted to do from his first day in his first term as president, given his extreme dislike of OPEC’s use of its cartel powers over the years against the core interests of Washington and its allies, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. This was first notably seen in the 1973 Oil Crisis in which Saudi Arabia rallied fellow OPEC members into imposing an oil embargo on the U.S. and its allies following their support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. By the end of the embargo in March 1974, the price of oil had risen from around US$3 per barrel to nearly US$11 per barrel, which stoked the fire of a global economic slowdown, especially felt in the West. Then-Saudi Minister of Oil and Mineral Reserves, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, highlighted that this marked a fundamental shift in the world balance of power between the developing nations that produced oil and the developed industrial nations that consumed it. However, with the rise of U.S. shale oil production from around 2010, and OPEC’s attempt to destroy the nascent sector through an Oil Price War from 2014-2016 failing catastrophically, Trump has wanted to critically undermine the cartel’s ability to damage U.S. and allied interests ever since. Indeed, in the subsequent 2020 Oil Price War involving OPEC and started by Saudi Arabia for the same reason as in 2014, Trump expedited progress of the ‘No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act’ (NOPEC), which would open the way for sovereign governments to be sued for predatory pricing and failure to comply with the U.S.’s antitrust laws. It could also break up Saudi Arabian oil supergiant Aramco — the mainstay of the Kingdom’s existing economic and political systems — into constituent parts, effectively destroying it.
Instead, as delineated in the U.S.’s ‘2025 National Security Strategy’, Trump wants the world’s geopolitical system split into three geographical spheres, dominated by a major power in each. China would hold the primary role in Asia, while Russia would either dominate or significantly influence Europe, depending on how any future conflict between European NATO members and Moscow unfolds. But, at the top, the U.S. would maintain overall dominance and exert direct influence across the Americas (North and South America). Naturally, as energy underpins the economies — and thus politics — of every country in the world, shifting the centre of dominance in global energy supplies to the Americas is a core part of that aim. The U.S. is playing its part toward that, pumping oil at record highs, around a baseline of 13.6 million bpd, with plans for more down the line. Of the other major oil-producing countries in the Americas, Venezuela is top of Washington’s development agenda, followed by Argentina and then Brazil.
Following the landmark removal from power of Nicolás Maduro on 3 January by the U.S., Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined a three-phase plan for the South American oil giant that involved stabilising the country and averting economic collapse, recovering the economy and oil sector, and encouraging an eventual political transition. These efforts have already seen a positive trajectory in oil production, with Venezuelan state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) and its foreign partners averaging 1.155 million bpd of crude production in May, compared to 1.130 million bpd in April and 940,0000 b/d in January. In April, executive vice president Jovanny Martinez, said that the country expects to produce 1.37 million bpd by the end of 2026. There is plenty of scope to do so, as Venezuela still holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves — roughly 303 billion barrels, or about 17% of the global total — and of its 14 supergiant oil fields, 11 retain more than half of their original reserves. Most of this is extra-heavy crude oil from the Orinoco Belt that requires more technical expertise to handle than lighter grades but is cheaper to lift and often more profitable to process. With those bottlenecks being addressed, it could again produce millions of barrels per day of cheap-to-lift crude, even if downstream handling remained costly. In fact, as recently as 2008, Venezuela was producing around 3 million bpd of crude oil.
One level down in Trump’s list of energy development priorities is Argentina, with Washington having provided a US$20 billion lifeline to the country in October 2025. This was explicitly intended to support President Javier Milei’s pro-market reforms and stabilise the economy for foreign investment. The ‘Reciprocal Trade and Investment Agreement’, which fast-tracks U.S. investment in strategic sectors, including energy and critical minerals, was then signed on 4 February this year. Against this backdrop, several U.S. companies are increasing their oil and gas investment there, particularly in the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which is now being referred to as another Permian Basin due to its scale. Continental Resources recently purchased non-operating interests in four blocks in the Vaca Muerta basin to accelerate expansion, while Chevron is leaning toward making Vaca Muerta a core asset in its global portfolio. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes secured a major order in early 2026 to supply gas compression units for the San Matias Pipeline, supporting gas transport from Vaca Muerta. Overall, Argentina is on track to reach 1 million bpd of oil this year, up 26% from 2025.
That said, Brazil is now producing a record-breaking 4 million bpd and over of crude oil, and including natural gas, total hydrocarbon output has hit a new record of 5.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). Industry forecasts are that it may well become one of the world’s top five oil producers by 2030, supported by extensive investment plans from Petrobras and foreign oil companies. These include supermajors from the U.S., focusing now on high-impact exploration and deepwater production rather than the maturing fields. Last October, for example, ExxonMobil achieved its first-ever upstream production in Brazil at the Bacalhau field, which has a capacity of 220,000 bpd. Chevron was awarded new offshore blocks alongside Petrobras and ExxonMobil last June, and Baker Hughes and Halliburton supply equipment and engineering for Petrobras’s US$109 billion five-year investment plan. Washington is cognisant not just of Brazil’s further massive oil and gas potential but also of its geopolitical importance as one of the original ‘BRIC’ (Brazil, Russia, India, China) emerging-market powerhouses, and its geographical position in the U.S.’s ‘backyard’.
With China weakened economically from where it was before Covid, and Russia near economic and military collapse as the war in Ukraine drags into its fifth year, Washington may never have a better opportunity to put Trump’s new world order into place. The Americas hemisphere already accounts for 32% of global crude production and is growing every year, with new supply from the U.S. Permian Basin, offshore Guyana, Argentine shale, and increased flows from Brazil and Venezuela. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs, Caleb Orr, highlighted recently that Ecuador and El Salvador are also among the governments Washington works with “hand in glove” on security. He added that security is the “table stakes” for any productive economic relationship and the foundation of the broad-based change in the Americas. The sentiments have been underlined by National Energy Dominance Council executive director Jarrod Agen, who recently said: “The Western Hemisphere is now the leading driver of energy in the world; we are the centre of the energy world from Alaska down to Venezuela, and what we want is the crude product coming out of Alaska, coming out of Venezuela, coming into U.S. refineries, getting refined, and then exporting to the world.”
END
OIL
Oil Experts To Spar On Iran Deal: Crude To $150 Or $50?
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 12:40 PM
With oil prices plunging after the announcement of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, traders are asking: Is the geopolitical risk premium gone, or is the market setting up for another shock?
Tonight at 7pm ET, veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie and energy economist Anas Alhajji join host Erik Townsend to debate where oil heads next.
The tentative agreement sent crude sharply lower as investors price in the return of halted supply and reduced odds of a prolonged Middle East conflict. Though a deal is still anywhere from solidified, as tonight’s host just pointed out…
Currie, formerly Carlyle and Goldman, has long argued that structural underinvestment, declining spare capacity, and growing demand leave the global oil market far more vulnerable than most investors appreciate, even if Hormuz were to open today (opening is scheduled for Friday). The underlying supply picture remains tight, and today’s relief rally in financial markets may prove temporary. Oil prices have already fallen from war-driven highs near $120 per barrel to cracking below $80 this morning, following the truce announcement.
Alhajji, meanwhile, frequently challenges conventional supply-shortage narratives, emphasizing the industry’s ability to respond to higher prices and warned against “permabulls” extrapolating geopolitical disruptions into permanent structural deficits. With the market now shifting its focus from military escalation back toward inventories, production growth, OPEC policy, and demand trends… the next few months will prove a key moment to assess whether structural supply issues are as severe as some analysts say.
Currie, Townsend, and Alhajji will examine whether the reopening of Hormuz fundamentally changes the outlook, how much spare capacity actually exists, whether the recent war exposed deeper vulnerabilities in global energy markets, and what investors should expect from oil prices over the remainder of 2026. And also… will a failed ceasefire send markets into a more severe panic than before?
Tune into the ZeroHedge homepage, X feed, or YouTube channeltonight at 7pm ET to watch live.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1605 UP 0.0014
USA/ YEN 160.328 UP 0.084 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3418 UP 0.0003 OR 3 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4004 UP 0.0011 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 11 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 4.58 PTS OR 0.11%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 348.72 PTS OR 1.40%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.34%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 348.72 PTS OR 1.40%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.58 OR 0.11%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.34%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 148.50 PTS OR 0.21%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4342.05
silver:$70.48
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 46.30 PLUS 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 72.16 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 7 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7909 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.506 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.413 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.044 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early TUESDAY MORNING: 99.36 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.259% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.6540% UP 8 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.782 UP 3 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.358 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.647 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.9343 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1600 UP 0.0009 OR 9 basis points
USA/Japan: 160.37 UP 0.126 OR YEN IS DOWN 13 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.8000 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.512 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS.
Big-Tech, Bond Yields, & Black Gold Dump Ahead Of Warsh’s Big Day
WRAP UP;
USA DATA RELEASES
HIGHER RATES ARE KILLING HOUSING!!
US Housing Starts Collapsed In May To Lowest Since COVID
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 08:41 AM
With housing inventories at recent highs, the US housing market just suffered another sentiment setback as Housing Starts crashed by 15.4% MoM in May (far worse than 2% drop expected and worse since March 2024)), following a revised 8.5% MoM drop in April. Building Permits slipped 0.7% MoM (in line with expectations)…
Source: Bloomberg
That pulls the Housing Starts SAAR to its lowest since COVID (after reaching the highest since 2024 in April)…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, it was multi-family (rental) starts that collapsed:
Housing Starts single-family drop from 899K (revised lower from 930K) to 882K
Housing Starts multi-family drop from 486K (revised lower from 529K) to 284K
Source: Bloomberg
Did ‘renter nation’ just die?
Multifamily permits also fell…
Housing Permits single-family rise from 881K (revised higher from 872K) to 886K
Housing Permits multi-family drop from 491K (revised lower from 514K) to 474K
Is homebuilder sentiment about to slump even further…
Source: Bloomberg
It seems recent rises in the mortgage rate (and inventories already at over-stuffed levels, given the slowness of sales) has finally dented the homebuilders’ self-satisfying confidence.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
US Property Foreclosure Filings Increase 14% Year Over Year
There were a total of 40,355 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings in May—down 5 percent month-over-month but up by 14 percent compared to the same period in 2025.
“The increase marks the continuation of a trend of rising foreclosure activity on an annual basis,” real estate analytics company ATTOM said in a June 11 statement.
In April, foreclosure filings were up 18 percent from a year back. And in the first quarter of 2026, filings were up 26 percent compared to Q1 of 2025.
“Lenders repossessed 4,092 U.S. properties through completed foreclosures (REOs) in May 2026, down 20 percent from the previous month but up 6 percent from a year ago,” ATTOM said.
Foreclosure is a legal process by which a mortgage lender repossesses a property due to borrower’s failure to make mortgage payments. The lender initially issues a notice of default when payments are missed for 90 days. If the borrower does not settle payments within 30 days, the property is repossessed and eventually sold to new buyers.
In May, one in every 3,562 U.S. housing units had a foreclosure filing, ATTOM reported. Florida had the highest foreclosure rate, with one in 2,110 units. This was followed by South Carolina, Maryland, Nevada, and Indiana.
Among metro areas with a population of at least 2 million, Cleveland, Ohio, had the highest foreclosure rate last month, with one in 1,524 housing properties. This was followed by Baltimore, Maryland; Tampa, Florida; Riverside, California; and Orlando, Florida.
As for states with the highest number of completed foreclosures, Texas ranked at the top with 519, followed by California, Florida, Illinois, and Michigan.
“Foreclosure starts and completed foreclosures both increased compared to last year, reflecting ongoing pressure on some homeowners as elevated mortgage rates, rising ownership costs, and affordability constraints persist,” CEO at ATTOM Rob Barber said.
“At the same time, foreclosure volumes remain well below historical norms, indicating that the housing market continues to show resilience despite these challenges.”
In a June 12 post, legal services company Nolo predicted foreclosure rates to gradually rise in the latter part of this year.
“Factors such as surging insurance premiums, elevated interest rates, climbing HOA fees, and reduced buyer demand are contributing to a growing housing crisis,” Nolo said. “Also, markets with high property taxes or economies that rely on volatile sectors (like Las Vegas, Nevada) are at risk of seeing an increase in foreclosures during tough economic times.”
The average weekly mortgage rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has remained above 6 percent for every single week since mid-September 2022, except for a brief dip in late February this year, according to data from Freddie Mac.
Meanwhile, the housing market slowed down in May after improving in April due to the increase in mortgage rates, real estate brokerage Redfin said in a June 3 statement.
The trend of rising foreclosures is likely to continue unless there is significant relief or intervention, Nolo said.
In February, a group of lawmakers reintroduced the Preserving Homes and Communities Act to protect homeowners from foreclosures, according to a Feb. 4 statement from the office of Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.).
The bill seeks to ensure that local entities with public missions, such as municipalities, states, and nonprofits, have the “first opportunity” to buy nonperforming and reperforming mortgages from the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Typically, such loans are sold at a discount to institutional investors and private equity companies via note sale programs.
The bill also seeks to make sure that borrowers receive a notice of at least 90 days before their mortgages are placed in note sales.
“Housing costs are higher than ever before and we need to make it easier for working families to keep a roof over their heads. The national data clearly shows that the current note sales system is not working properly and is prioritizing the wants of investors over the needs of homeowners,” Reed said.
The bill “will implement key reforms to strengthen foreclosure protections and better protect homeowners and communities,” the senator said.
The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.
end
FBI Foils Alleged Suicide Drone Plot Targeting “Capitalist Elites” At UFC White House Event
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 11:20 AM
Regular readers know that the threat of suicide drones has expanded beyond the modern battlefields of Ukraine and the Middle East – with potential targets including data centers and critical infrastructure. Given this potential, it was only a matter of time before an FPV-style attack was attempted on the homeland.
Today, Fox News’ reports that federal agents and law enforcement partners foiled an alleged FPV attack plot targeting this past weekend’s UFC Freedom 250 event in Washington, D.C.
According to the report, five people were arrested and 23 others were identified as part of a potential network of plotters. The group allegedly planned to use explosive-laden drones to hit buildings near the event, force a mass evacuation, and steer crowds toward a pre-staged sniper team.
A “second wave” was then allegedly planned to storm the White House gate, according to officials. -Fox News
FBI Director Kash Patel posted on X:
On June 10, FBI and our law enforcement partners became aware of a potential threat to the UFC America 250 event in Washington, D.C. involving individuals outside of the National Capital Region – and thanks to the rapid action of this FBI, our partners, and the Department of Justice in a multi-state operation, multiple individuals are now in custody and allegedly planned attacks were stopped cold.
Seeking comment from America’s counter-drone detection industry, we reached out to DZYNE Technologies CEO Matt McCue, who told us:
“This is exactly how layered defense is supposed to work. Intelligence and interdiction upstream, counter-drone technology downstream. They are partners, not competitors. The FBI reached this one early, and that’s the ideal outcome. For the threats that don’t surface in advance, that’s where the detection and mitigation layer has to be ready.”
McCue continued:
“It is a relief that the FBI reached this one early, because the real problem is the back end. Once one of these is in the air over a crowd, the defender’s window is measured in seconds, and every option to stop it carries its own risk to the people underneath. The advantage swings hard to the attacker the moment it launches.”
Joe Francescon, former National Security Council Senior Director for Counterterrorism Defense, told us:
“What makes this category of attacks so concerning is how little it demands of the people behind it. The technology is commercial, off-the-shelf, and everywhere. There is no meaningful legal or financial barrier to obtaining it, and no special access, insider knowledge, or training required to use it. The planning for an attack like this can happen out in the open, which is a very different threat profile from what the U.S. is used to worrying about.”
Of course, while we aren’t getting names or photos for some reason, one of the suspects allegedly told investigators the aim was to target “capitalist elites,” “billionaires,” or politicians who received donations from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
And while we don’t know if this was just douchebags larping on Signal chat from mom’s basement or radical militants who had secured hardware (because the FBI hasn’t told us), we do know that some of the most vocal groups in America bashing “capitalist elites” and “billionaires” have been associated with the rise of socialist and communist movements.
These groups were allowed to thrive by their ‘comrades‘ in the Biden and Obama administrations, who instead went after parents opposing woke indoctrination, Catholics, and free speech.
Now, we’re back to combating radical left-wing terror – which even The Atlantic had to admit is ‘on the rise.’
end
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
The King Report June 16, 2025 Issue 7764
Independent View of the News
Axios on Monday night with MOU details: Scoop: CIA director doubts Iran’s intentions on deal… Ratcliffe isn’t the only skeptic in Trump’s top team. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have both expressed concerns and raised questions about the deal in internal discussions, while Vice President Vance and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner advocated for it… “The intelligence (NSA snooping & CIA sources?)reflects that the Iranian intentions are not in line with their commitments under the deal,“… (US intel says Iran is playing the US for patsies!) The full text of the 14-point initial deal has yet to be published, but a source familiar with the text contended that the Iranians will get more than they give under the MOU — unless they agree to sign a nuclear deal that meets the U.S. objectives… In the context of those talks, Iran reiterates its past commitmentto never acquire or procure a nuclear weapon… The source said the MOU says the U.S. and Iran commit to “resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material” and “discuss the issue of future enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran’s nuclear needs based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal.”… If a final nuclear deal is reached, the U.S. will remove the forces it mobilized for the war within 30 days and terminate all sanctions against Iran under an agreed-upon schedule… the U.S. “undertakes to make [the funds] fully available for use… upon the implementation of this MOU,”… U.S. officials say it will be a “pay for performance” model. A senior U.S. official told reporters that if the U.S. sees positive “gestures” from Iran, it could release some funds in exchange. The MOU also says any final deal will include a “definitive and mutually agreed plan” for theestablishment of a $300 billion fundfor the “reconstruction and economic development” of Iran, and a mechanism for its implementation. Advocates of the deal argue that’s a long-term proposition which would only become reality if Iran dismantles its nuclear program and undergoes significant internal reforms… https://www.axios.com/2026/06/15/us-iran-deal-cia-director-ratcliffe
A source close to the Revolutionary Guards told Israeli @C14_news: “Trump will not attack in August, two months before the midterm elections. The Revolutionary Guards have no intention of upholding the agreement. They understood that the Strait of Hormuz is Trump’s weak point… In the Revolutionary Guards, there is great satisfaction with the emerging agreement… Trump wanted an open Hormuz, cheap oil, and calm markets – and he got exactly that. On the other hand, in Iran they believe they succeeded in preserving the truly important assets: the ballistic missiles, the regional proxies, and the ability to rebuild. The message that Ahmad Hediy conveyed throughout the day: “First, we’ll take the money.” (The US & Israel have intel that Iran won’t honor the pact!) https://x.com/DBalazada/status/2066578691044626848
@AFpost: JD Vance says that Iran could have access to $300B in reconstruction funds if they honor the US-Iran deal. https://x.com/AFpost/status/2066553523744203251 (This makes Obama’s $1.7B pallets of cash look like meal money!)
Trump was unnerved by the Axios story: Iran has agreed to never have a nuclear weapon! Also, the story that the U.S. is paying Iran 300 million Dollars is Fake News, put out by the Dumocrats!!! President DJT Jun 15, 2026, 6:17 PM (But Vance and a US senior official said $300B for Iran is possible!)
The big problem if Axios is right is that Iran will get funds when it signs the MOU even though US intel says Iran has no intention to honor the deal! Vance spent most of Monday trying to assuage the outrage over this. Team Trump’s talking point to put out the fire is ‘the funds will be released based on performance, although the US could dribble out some cash for good will.’
You can bet that someone or two against the MOU leaked the details to Axios because Team Trump would NOT provide any details. Now ‘they’ must spend more time today extinguishing fires. The most respected Trump official, Secretary of State Rubio, was silent on Monday. Now we know why!
Trump on Sunday night: This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace. With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!…
@N12News: A senior American official in a briefing to reporters: “We signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, the president and vice president signed it. The Iranian parliament chairman Kalibaf also signed it.” The senior official added: “The Iranians are agreeing to concessions they did not agree to in the past—therefore, we are agreeing to consider steps we did not agree to in the past. We feel that we are at a positive point.”
Fox’s @aishahhasnie: VP VANCE says U.S/IRAN already signed the deal Sunday: “We already signed the deal digitally yesterday and there’s been no money released and that won’t change.”
Due to outrage over reports that the US unfroze $12B of Iranian funds as a condition for signing the MOU, US officials, including Team Trump deceived Americans on Sunday when they said the deal would be signed on Friday. They are now claiming that the US and Iran signed the deal on Sunday so they (Vance) can claim no money went to Iran!
A Senior US Official said the deal provides for the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US Naval blockade. He added that it will ‘take a bit of time, 1 to 2 weeks’ for oil to flow because mines must be cleared from the strait. But here’s the problem: He said the Strait of Hormuz would be “tollfree for 60 days.” WHAT? What happens after 60 days?
Trump on releasing MOU: “I think pretty soon. I want it to be released because it’s a very powerful document. It’s not like the Obama document, which was just a terrible document… So probably pretty soon. I would say sometime after Friday.” https://x.com/Osint613/status/2066562565350543761
Tablet Mag’s @LeeSmithDC: If they haven’t published US version, or whatever is being agreed to, the reason they’re mad the Iranians, or Pakistanis, are publishing versions is because they document pretty closely the extent of US appeasement. (A ‘great deal’ would be published ASAP!)
@MattRJBrodsky: A great deal does not need to be hidden. It would already be public. If this deal were as strong as Trump claims, the White House would have published the terms immediately and flooded the zone with specifics.I was part of the Trump 45 comms effort for the January 2020 Israeli-Palestinian peace plan and the Abraham Accords. We had documents, talking points, details, and specific provisions we could cite in the media.Trump is praising this deal like it’s bigger than the Abraham Accords. Yet somehow there’s no text, no serious explanation, no clear terms, and no one on TV who can answer basic questions without retreating into cultish nonsense. That’s not because the White House can’t write a fact sheet. It’s because the deal is a pig, and they’re still searching for more lipstick.
@MaryMargOlohan: Senior admin official promises that the “MOU will be released publicly,” saying, “we are still in the early stages, we are building trust.” “I think what you’ll see is that we are prepared to release frozen funds, and we are prepared to release sanctions, and we’ll do some small gestures of that in the beginning if they make some small gestures to us to show that they’re willing to meet their commitments as well.” (There’s the answer to a lot of questions: “Prepared to release frozen funds.”)
But wait, there’s more! The US official said sanctions relief for Iran is not tied to a specific checklist of actions but depends on Tehran “acting properly.” What is “acting properly?” Also, the US might release funds to Iran “in stages” and “may do small gestures in the beginning.” This is French for ‘the US already promised to release funds to Iran.’
Israelis slam proposed US-Iran peace deal as a ‘Bad Deal,’ say it fails to address security concerns “It’s very easy to say what topics will be up for future negotiations,” Nagel said, adding that Iran’s ballistic missiles and its support for proxy groups in the region do not appear to be addressed in the budding cease-fire deal… https://trib.al/R9UTyNj
@geraldposner: Vance says Iran threatened to launch “a large number of missiles at the Israelis” during the final hours of negotiations. Hegseth declared in early April that Iran’s ballistic missile program was “functionally destroyed” and said Iran had “no ability to replenish your offensive or defensive capabilities/” Someone’s math doesn’t add up. And then there’s the Hezbollah wrinkle. Israel was so completely cut out of the negotiations that Israel reportedly resorted to spying on U.S. officials just to find out what was being discussed. Yet the deal requires Israel to stand down against Hezbollah — the 900-lb terror gorilla Iran has armed, funded, and directed for decades. And that is before international sanctions are lifted on Iran and it has billions more to bolster Hezbollah. So, the country most directly threatened by Iran’s missiles had no seat at the table. The country whose cities Hezbollah has been rocketing wasn’t consulted. But Israel is expected to honor a deal that leaves Hezbollah intact and gives Iran a ceasefire window to dig out its surviving missile launchers – which, by U.S. intelligence’s own estimates, is roughly half of what they started with. I’m withholding judgment on the full deal until I see all the details. The gap between what we were told was destroyed and what Vance just admitted Iran still had ready to fire — that’s not a rounding error.
US official: “We are prepared to release frozen funds, and we are prepared to release sanctions. We’ll do some small gestures of that in the beginning if they make some small gestures to us.”
@Osint613: Vice President JD Vance on Iran: “We are hearing from both Iranian hardliners and political leaders that the past 47 years of hostility with the United States have been a mistake, and that it is time to turn a new page.” (Who believes this BS? Vance is burying himself further!)
Vance asserted on ABC that A US goal was to “change our relationship fundamentally with the Iranians.” This is the precise rhetoric Obama and his team used to rationalize appeasement with Iran! @NewReaganCaucus: Everyone now sees why Iran requested JD Vance for negotiations.
Vance is circling the drain politically. Ardent Trump supporters are directing their discontent and fury at Vance. GOP Sen. Graham alleges that Vance was the major architect of the deal.
Trump secretly approved Qatar-Iran cash deal Diplomatic officials confirm Washington secretly authorized Doha to transfer funds to Tehran in exchange for freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and immunity from attacks. The dual policy was intended to curb global energy prices and served as the basis for the memorandum of understanding being forged with the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards. While oversight of the financial spigot was watered down and handed to the Qataris, talks in Washington stalled over a bitter dispute surrounding the issue of uranium enrichment… The secret US approval, which the sources said was granted about a month ago… While the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia were hit by missile and UAV attacks after the ceasefire,Qatar assisted Iran financially and remained completely protected… During the visit to Doha by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, direct calls were held with Washington, with the US envoys overseeing the negotiations, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, on the other end of the line… One of the officials hinted that the arrangement clearly served the Saudi interest in particular, with Riyadh involved in mediation with the US… https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/06/15/trump-secretly-approved-qatar-iran-cash-deal/
You can bet that in coming days, more inside info as to the deals made with Iran will appear as well as renewed scrutiny on the billions of dollars invested by Qater/SA in Kusher and Trump Family ventures.
Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East Envoy, Has Ties to Oil–Rich Nations There … Nov 25, 2024 First, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund expanded its stake in the troubled hotel, Park Lane, which sits at the southern edge of Central Park. Then, in an even more crucial move, the Qatar Investment Authority last year dispatched $623 million as a leveraged buyout of Mr. Witkoff and his partners… First, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund expanded its stake in the troubled hotel, Park Lane, which sits at the southern edge of Central Park. Then, in an even more crucial move, the Qatar Investment Authority last year dispatched $623 million as a leveraged buyout of Mr. Witkoff and his partners… Kushner left the White House, he secured $3 billion in commitments, mostly from the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates… https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/us/politics/witkoff-trump-middle-east-envoy.html
@FoxNews on Monday: President Trump arrives in France as G7 leaders gather for the opening stretch of summit talks. The kickoff in Évian-les-Bains sets the stage for days of bilateral meetings, closed-door sessions, and global pressure points on the agenda. https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2066538306704200004
Trump (speaking from G7 in Evian, France): Hormuz Already Partially Opened – BBG 12:07 ET Trump Declares D.C.’s July 4 celebration a “Trump Rally” – AXS 12:07 ET Trump:On Friday Hormuz Will Be Completely Opened – BBG 12:07 ET Trump: Iran Fully Agreed to NOT Having a Nuclear Weapon (like in the JCPOA) – BBG 12:08 ET Trump: Hopefully We Will Have Good Relationship with Iran – BBG 12:10 ET Trump: Will Focus ON Russia’s War in Ukraine Next – BBG 12:10 ET
The Times of Israel: Call It What It Is: A Bad Deal What is to be signed is not a peace agreement, it is not the unconditional surrender document President Trump promised in the early days of the war and, for all practical purposes, simply resets things to where they were when the war began with little mention of the things that are most important to us here in Israel… Iran affirmed that it would never seek to build or procure a nuclear weapon (something that was also included in the JCPOA signed with the US under President Obama in 2015 which was then openly violated). Given the fact that at the start of the war the Strait of Hormuz was fully open, there was no blockage of shipping lanes by either the US or Iran, and the war had not yet started, it is difficult to see what has been accomplished… If the US now throws Israel “under the bus” as it were, then effectively we here in Israel were being “used” by the Americans in order to achieve their goals rather than, in partnership, to achieve our combined goals… https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/call-it-what-it-is-a-bad-deal/
@LisaDaftari: “To put it simply, over 90% of Iranians despise this deal for giving a lifeline to this corrupt and filthy regime...and for betraying the blood of thousands killed during the uprisings of Jan. 2025.” -an Iranian inside Iran
US stocks soared but the DJTA declined. Of course, Fangs and AI bubble stocks went to the moon! Precious metals soared while bonds rescinded most of their overnight gains. Gasoline and oil sank.
ESMs opened sharply higher on Sunday night and intractably rallied, with only a handful of minor interruptions, to a daily high of 7648.75 at 12:01 ET. ESMs then steadily eased down to 7616.50 at 15:57 ET. The illegal late manipulation forced ESMs to 7631.75 at 16:00 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied sharply, ex-DJTA stocks; Fangs and AI-related stocks soared. SPCX +19.58%!!! Oil and gasoline declined sharply.
Negative aspects of previous session The DJIA declined as much as 1.3% (-297.06) and closed -1.09% (-245.38). USMs hit a daily high of 113 08 (+28/32) at 21:20 ET but steadily fell to 112 16/32 (+8/32) at 13:01 ET. The US is concealing the contents of its MOU with Iran – and it cannot be for a good reason! Oil bottomed at 3:30 ET (79.70) and was 81.45 near the NYSE close. Gasoline bottomed at :32 ET. SpaceX with projected Q2 Adj EPS of -0.18 & 2026 FY sales of $34.142B is valued at $2.517 trillion. @charliebilello: Micron is now trading at over 21x Sales, which is more than double its peak valuation during the dot-com bubble (10x).https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2066620013226635745
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will the US-Iran MOU reveal? One should reserve judgement until it is released. How big will the political fallout be for Trump and Vance?
First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour:Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7549.73 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7577.92 (12:01 ET); 7516.75 (9:30 ET)
CNN’s @alexplitsas: Senior U.S. officials said that comparison to the JCPOA are inaccurate as the JCPOA was a final agreement where this MOU is a framework for negotiations.
WSJ Editorial Board: Trump Stages an Iran Retreat The regime gets financial relief to reopen Hormuz and hold more nuclear talks. President Trump is touting his latest cease-fire deal with Iran as peace in our time, but the world is more likely to see it as a strategic retreat short of achieving his war aims. To reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump is accepting Iran’s promises merely to negotiate over its nuclear program…
Today – Traders want to play the Fed Week and June Expiration Week Rallies. Stocks typically rally into Fed Day (Wednesday) and then react to the Communique and Fed Chair Presser. However, there are reports that Hezbollah and Israel are exchanging rocket attacks in southern Lebanon.
The big question for today: Did investors and traders great & small get too long on Monday?
PS – US Nominal GDP SAAR is $31.1946 trillion as of 3/2/2026. If/when SpaceX hits a valuation that is 10% of US GDP, is it overvalued? But this be sign on a stock bubble?
Will Rubio surface? Will Republicans besides Vance speak on the MOU?
ESMs are -12.25; NQMs are -83.00; WTI is +$0.55; gasoline is +1.80¢; USMs are -5/32 at 20:55 ET.
The markets are closed on Friday for Juneteenth. June expiration will occur on Thursday.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 7267; 100-day MA: 7025; 150-day MA: 6961; 200-day MA: 6887 DJIA 50-day MA: 49,662;100-day MA: 48,917; 150-day MA: 48,626; 200-day MA: 48,060 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (7554.53 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6078.33 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6842.49 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 7266.03 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7510.87 triggers a sell signal
JD Vance: If you go back to WW2 or every major conflict in human history, they all ended with some kind of negotiation. (Vance is getting hammered for this absurd remark. He is collapsing in the polls.) https://x.com/yogeshtwet/status/2065425278139003082
@AynReagan: Trump reportedly was convinced to choose Vance by Junior and Carlson and Wiles. The Qatar Lobby within the campaign. Vance brought nothing of value politically or substantively. So why is he there? We are witnessing why. This administration is implementing the Qatari agenda.
A US Air Force B-52 bomber crashed shortly after takeoff at Edwards Air Force Base in California. The 8-member crew is presumed dead.
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Gavin Newsom And The DOJ Probe Opened Under Biden: Behested Payments, Family Nonprofits, & Questions Of Influence
Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026 – 03:20 PM
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has launched an aggressive counteroffensive against a federal investigation he calls a politically motivated “fishing expedition” – for a probe which wasopened under the Biden adminisgration.
In a video posted to X and a formal letter to the Department of Justice, Newsom demanded all internal communications since January 2025 that mention him or his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom. The Freedom of Information Act request targets top DOJ officials, including former Attorney General Pam Bondi who was dismissed in April 2026, and Acting officials Emil Bove and Todd Blanche. It sets a July 6, 2026 deadline.
Newsom claims federal agents have been questioning family members, friends, and former employees not because a crime has been identified, but because the Trump administration is trying to manufacture one. He attributes the scrutiny to his vocal criticism of President Trump and the possibility that he may run for president in 2028.
The DOJ has not confirmed or commented on the existence or scope of any investigation. What has surfaced publicly points to two tracks: whistleblower allegations concerning Siebel Newsom’s taxes and a separate corruption inquiry linked to Newsom’s former chief of staff, Dana Williamson.
The Behested Payments Pipeline
At the center of much of the speculation is California’s long-standing practice of “behested payments,” which are donations that politicians solicit from private interests on behalf of nonprofit organizations. Following 2021 ethics reforms, amounts above $5,000 must be disclosed, yet the rules remain relatively permissive. Critics, including Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton, have called the mechanism “literally corruption in plain sight” and pledged to ban it.
Reporting has established that Newsom directed more than $4.4 million in behested payments to the California Partners Project, a nonprofit founded by his wife that focuses on gender equity. Siebel Newsom takes no salary from the organization, but the donations have been described as essential to keeping its operations running. The group has also collaborated with Siebel Newsom’s other nonprofit, The Representation Project, which pays her $150,000 annually, and has worked with her private-sector film production company.
One transaction stands out. The Washington Free Beacon reported that Newsom asked a Native American tribe to make two separate $500,000 donations to the California Partners Project. Contemporaneously, he took that tribe’s side in a dispute with another tribe over a proposed casino. The juxtaposition of large directed donations to a family-linked nonprofit coinciding with favorable official action has fueled questions about whether donors with business before the state were effectively paying for access or goodwill through the governor’s wife’s charity.
What Might the DOJ Be Examining?
Speculation about the investigation’s focus falls into several overlapping categories, none of which have been confirmed by federal authorities.
Investigators may be testing whether the pattern of soliciting large donations to a spouse’s nonprofit, especially from parties with active regulatory or licensing matters before the state, crosses into improper use of public office. Federal prosecutors have pursued cases involving gratuities or implicit quid pro quos even when no explicit bribe was demanded. The casino-related donations are the most concrete example cited so far.
Even if Siebel Newsom draws no direct salary from the California Partners Project, overlapping activities with her compensated nonprofit and production company could raise questions about whether behested funds ultimately supported her professional ecosystem or lifestyle. Tax whistleblower allegations could relate to how such flows were reported on personal or organizational returns.
The separate corruption line involving former chief of staff Dana Williamson suggests investigators may be mapping relationships, communications, and decision-making processes around the time the behested payments occurred. Former aides often become key witnesses or targets in public corruption probes.
Newsom’s team frames all of this as baseless harassment. They note that no charges have been filed, that the investigation appears to rely heavily on interviews rather than documentary smoking guns, and that the timing aligns with Newsom’s rising national profile as a Trump critic and potential 2028 contender. The sweeping FOIA request itself functions as both a transparency demand and a political weapon intended to expose internal deliberations, force the administration to justify its actions, and rally supporters around a “witch hunt” narrative.
Political and Legal Stakes
The coming weeks will test both the durability of Newsom’s counteroffensive and the substance behind the reported probe. If the DOJ produces evidence of systematic steering of donor money to family-controlled entities in exchange for official acts, it could seriously damage Newsom’s national ambitions. If the investigation yields little beyond aggressive but legal fundraising practices common in California politics, Newsom will likely portray the entire episode as further proof of Trump-era weaponization of federal law enforcement.
Behested payments occupy a gray zone: legal under current California rules, yet ethically fraught when the ultimate beneficiary is the soliciting politician’s spouse and when donors have simultaneous business before the state. Whether that gray zone contains federal crimes remains the open question the DOJ appears to be probing.
For now, both sides are playing to their audiences, as usual.
end
FBI Raids Soros-Connected Ohio Voter Mobilization Group In Fraud Investigation
Federal investigators executed search warrants at the headquarters of a Soros-aligned voter mobilization organization in Ohio as part of what sources described as an ongoing fraud investigation.
FBI agents searched the offices of the Ohio Organizing Collaborative on June 11 and conducted interviews with members of the organization across the state, according to reports. Some agents reportedly served subpoenas or sought to seize electronic devices during the operation.
Multiple sources familiar with the matter later told CBS News that the federal action was tied to a fraud-related investigation.
The Department of Justice declined to discuss the specifics of the case.
“Search warrants are authorized by a judge and anything said by any organization or others in the media is unfounded speculation, as the target of any investigation is not privy to the search warrant affidavit until after indictment,” a DOJ official told Fox News Digital.
The Ohio Organizing Collaborative is a nonprofit group involved in voter registration and voter mobilization efforts and works closely with Democrats in Ohio. The organization has also played a prominent role in statewide ballot campaigns and referendum efforts.
The investigation is part of the Trump administration’s effort to increase enforcement of election-related laws and allegations of voter fraud.
Tax records show the organization reported more than $10 million in revenue during 2024.
Funding for the group has come from several major Democratic-aligned organizations and labor unions, including entities connected to the Soros family, the New Venture Fund, the Tides Foundation, the American Federation of Teachers and the Service Employees International Union.
According to the report, the Soros family’s Foundation to Promote Open Society provided approximately $1.9 million to the organization between 2019 and 2020.
The Open Society Action Fund later contributed an additional $1 million to a related organization in 2021 and another $1 million in 2023.
The organization has been active in recent Ohio political battles.
It spent $250,000 in 2023 opposing a Republican-backed effort related to abortion policy and another $300,000 the following year opposing a Republican redistricting proposal.
Organization leaders criticized the federal investigation and suggested it was politically motivated.
“How can they distract and intimidate civil rights leaders and voters and community leaders who are helping people get registered to vote, and create a national spectacle about it?” OOC board member Prentiss Haney told MS Now.
“That is the only reason why they would choose to do that, do it now, in the middle of a contested political election in the state. There’s no other reason. They have no evidence of that.”
The group has previously faced scrutiny related to voter registration activities. In 2017, a paid canvasser working with the organization pleaded guilty in connection with a fraudulent voter registration operation.
(L-R) U.S. President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy take part in a working session at the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, on June 16, 2026. Thibault Camus / POOL / AFP
Response personnel carry the body of a person who died from Ebola in Bunia, Congo, on June 13, 2026. Jospin Mwisha/AFP via Getty Images
Sanitation workers from Bunia city government spray disinfectant in the central market area near a rubbish truck in Ituri province, as they continue efforts to combat the Ebola outbreak in Bunia, Congo, on May 23, 2026. Moses Sawasawa/AP Photo
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