TOTAL: 1,000 1,000
MONTH TO DATE: 15,300
MONTH TO DATE: 14,300
JPMorgan stopped 392/1000
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2026: 1000 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 100,000 OZ or 3.1104 TONNES
total notices so far: 15,300 contracts FOR 1,530,000 OZ OR 47.589TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 925 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 4.625 million oz
GLD AND SLV
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $98.00 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $2.00 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF XX CONTRACTS OR XXX OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.970 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ. (IN EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK AND ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD TAKE THAT RISK. THE BUYER IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.)
JULY INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A 3 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 0.015MILLION STANDING ADVANCES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ///
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 6.240 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 6.975 MILLION OZ/
SUMMARY OF OUR JULY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE. 64.065 MILLION OZ//FINAL AND FAIR SIZED THIS MONTH.
JULY: 38.335 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 8.095 MILLION OZ.
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.960 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ
JULY : INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 6.240 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 6.975 MILLION OZ/
GOLD//OUTLINE
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F 0.0062 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.824TONNES
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 1.6235 AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 86 CONTRACTS OR 0.2674 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 51.6195 TONNES
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1037 CONTRACTS WITH 2,323 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3360 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1,037 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1672 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED .
GOLD PRICE FELL BY $2.45
STANDING FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS JANUARY TO AUGUST:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES/ PLUS 0.0062 TONNES EX FOR RISK///NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 40.824TONNES.
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 1.552 TONNES//TOTAL FOR RISK 1.6235 TONNES TO OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 00.2674 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 51.6195 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
YEAR 2026:
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 163.82 TONNES
AUGUST: 50.92TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE 1177 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 115,871
EFP ISSUANCE 485 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 485 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1177 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 485 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF 1662 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.75
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 8.310 MILLION PAPER OZ
STANDING ADVANCES TO 6.975 MILLION OZ
SILVER PRICE LOSS OF $0.75
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS AUGUST 7 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 39.68 PTS OR 1.02%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 137.75 PTS OR 0.54%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 49.26 PTS OR 0.07%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.48%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7476
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7462 Oil UP TO 77.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 82.38 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7476 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7462 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 2,323 CONTRACTS TO 389,008 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING/. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE MEGA FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (1,037 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $2.45)
WE THUS HAD A FAIR GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (1M037 CONTRACTS), DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A VERY STRONG CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 3360 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. TOTAL THUS SO FAR THIS MONTH: 523 CONTRACTS//52,300 OZ OR 1.6235 TONNES
MONTH OF MAY RECORD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK: THE HIGHEST EVER ISSUANCE!!
MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND AUGUST
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY: 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 523 CONTRACTS FOR 52300 OZ OR 1.6235 TONNES
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO AUGUST:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 146+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THIS IS A CENTRAL BANK
AUGUST: 523 CONTRACTS FOR 52300 OZ OR 1.6235 TONNES
DETAILS ON OUR NEW AUG COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1,037 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE ($2.45). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY/AUG CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1642 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
THEN IT SLOWS DOWN!
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: 2 SO FAR FOR 200 IZ IR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 523 CONTRACTS FOR 52300 OZ OR 1.6235 TONNES
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 146+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 16 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2025
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 40.818TONNES PLUS 0.00622 TONNES EXHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTAL 40.824 TONNES . TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 17.5802 TONNES OR 0.8790 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
AUGUST INITIAL; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STANDS: 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST: 0.0715 NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 1.6235 AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 86 CONTRACTS OR 8600 OZ (.2674 TONNES)//STANDING ADVANCES TO 51.6195 TONNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 4 YEARS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING AUGUST. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT FELL BY $2.45)
WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING //FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE AT THE COMEX OF $2.45
WE HAD 243 CONTRACTS ADDED TO OUR OI AT THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINA
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1037 CONTRACTS OR 103,700 OZ (3,725 TONNES)
AUG DELIVERY MONTH
AUGUST 7
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 2 ENTRIES i) Out of HSBC 43,893.129 oz ii) Out of Manfra; 114,148.450 0z total withdrawal: 158,041.579 oz 4.91 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold ENTRIES: 1 i) Into Brinks: 9259.488 oz (288 kilobars) total deposit: 9259.488 oz xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1000 CONTRACTS 100,000 OZ 3.1104TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1675Contracts 167,500 OZ 5.209 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 15,300 notices 1,530,000 OZ 47.589 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 1
i) Into Loomis: 11,785.121 oz
total deposit: 11785.121 oz
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comex withdrawal
2 ENTRIES
i) Out of HSBC 43,893.129 oz
ii) Out of Manfra; 114,148.450 0z
total withdrawal: 158,041.579 oz 4.91 tonnes
adjustments: 2
a) withdrawal from eligible: 80,882.972 oz
b) adjustment dealer to customer JPMorgan: (14,467.950 oz)
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUG OI STANDS AT 1761CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 60 CONTRACTS.
STANDING FOR GOLD YESTERDAY: 49.688. TODAY’S STANDING IS 49.966 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD: 1.6235 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THUS THE QUEUE JUMP IS REPRESENTED BY A STRONG 86 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 8600 OZ (.2674 TONNES) WILL STAND AT THE COMEX.
SEPTEMBER GAINED 425 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 5692
OCT LOST 426 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 53,373
.
We had 1000 contracts filed for today representing 100,000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1000 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 392 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (15,300) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUG (1761 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1000x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,606,100 OZ OR (49.996 Tonnes of gold)then we add our two exchange for risk of 523 contracts for 52,300oz or 1.6235..new standing advances to 51.6195 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUG. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (15,300) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUG( 1781) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 5 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,606,100 OZ OR (49.996 Tonnes of gold) plus 1.6235 tonnes exchange for risk..new standing 51.6195
new total of gold standing in AUG becomes 51.6195TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUG 51.6195 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUG
confirmed volume THURSDAY confirmed 201,455/ good// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,805,555.673 oz 56.160 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,805,555.673tonnes oz 56.160 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 26,708.284.186 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,191,820.609 tonnes (441.421 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,516,463.577 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 12,386.265oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
385.264 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
AUG DELIVERY MONTH
AUGUST 7
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of Delaware 4,038,376 oz ii) Out of Loomis: 300,128.08 oz total withdrawal: 304,166.416 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRY: 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 0 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.000 MILLIONOZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 470 Contracts (2.360 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 925 contracts 4.625MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRY: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) Out of Delaware 4,038,376 oz
ii) Out of Loomis: 300,128.08 oz
total withdrawal: 304,166.416 oz
adjustments :0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 99.789 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 334.598 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2026 OI: 470 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 70 CONTRACTS.
YESTERDAY WE HAD 6.970 MILLION OZ STAND: TODAY WE HAVE 6.975 MILLION OZ STAND
THUS WE HAVE A GAIN OF 1 CONTRACTS OR WE HAD A SMALL 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP/
SEPTEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 354 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 81,642 CONTRACTS
OCT GAINED 85 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 568
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 or NIL oz
CONFIRMED volume THURSDAY; 59,961// fair//
AND NOW AUGUST. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUG. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 925 X5,000 oz = 4.625 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of August and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the AUG 2026 contract month: (925 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUG ( 470 ) minus number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the AUG .contract month equating to 6.975 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 99.789 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 137.898/334.294million: 41.21%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD/
/AUGUST 7//2026/WITH GOLD UP $98.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.720TONNES
AUGUST 6//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.851 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.143TONNES
AUGUST 5//2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.146 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.874TONNES
AUGUST 3//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.02TONNES
JULY 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.40 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 29//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 28//2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 27.2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JLY 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP 6.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 98.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.87TONNES
JULY 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $73.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1003.59 TONNES
JULY 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.878 TONNES
JULY 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $110.60 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.45 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : / //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $105.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.108 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT 0F 3.138TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.618 TONNES
JULY 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $58.60 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 8/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 7/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.42 TONNES OUT INTO THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.954 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.366 TONNES
JULY 3 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $62.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $44,05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1014.720 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.00 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.75 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.467 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $2.20: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :A DEPOSIT OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROIM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.90: :NOCHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 723,000 OZ INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.34: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.722 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN 2.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.723MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.89: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.961 MILLION OZ
JULY 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 2.17 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.232 MILLION OZ
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 1.175 MILLION OZ// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.062 MILLION OZ
JULY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.48: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.52: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 3.30 MILLLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $1.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 543,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 477,587 MILLION OZ
JULY 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.07: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.67: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.904 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 9 WITH SILVER UP $2.64: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.70: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.266 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.034 MILLION OZ
JULY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.300 MILLION OZ
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.81: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.58: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.48: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.233 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 487.822 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ//ALASDAIR MACLEOD..
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Gold and silver begin their move
Investors increasingly suspect that financial markets might be radically mispriced and nowhere is this truer than for precious metals.
| Alasdair MacleodAug 7∙Paid |  |
Gold and silver begin their move
Investors increasingly suspect that financial markets might be radically mispriced and nowhere is this truer than for precious metals.
In terms of the evolution of gold and silver prices, markets appear to be in a similar position to where they were in December 1973, after OPEC first hiked its reference price and before the second larger increase.
A reason for making the comparison with the position today is that price suppression by the US’s strategic reserves drawdown is coming to an end, and crude oil prices will almost certainly begin rising due to the prolonged Hormuz and now Bab el-Mandab closures. We appear to be following the 1973-74 precedent.
Gold and silver have started moving higher with oil prices, reflected in both metal contracts on Comex. This is evident in the chart for gold and its open interest;
Open interest hit the lowest levels in decades in June. Since then, the managed money, other reported, and non-reported categories accumulated over 30,000 longs by end-July. The largest category at 18,493 longs is non-reported where you would expect stackers to be operating. They have been accumulating long positions in the $4,000-4,500 price range, and physical deliveries during this time totalled 19,887 contracts (61.9 tonnes).
In summary, while retail investors became increasingly despondent and many chartists with them, the big money has been stacking. And now, open interest appears to be recovering in a tight market.
What is true of gold is also true for silver:
Clearly, the swaps (market makers and bullion bank traders) will be unable to reduce their short positions in both contracts, and their hedging activity will drive prices higher in London. And hedge they will, because it is an open secret why central banks are accumulating gold — to hedge out of increasing currency risk. This is probably why some very large call options dramatically out-of-the-money have been bought.
Think about that for a moment. The establishment led by central banks knows that the fiat currency gig is up. We are probably close to the point where all actions by the US Treasury and the Fed will be read negatively, and they will no longer enjoy the benefit of doubt by markets. And this week provided us with an excellent example.
Secretary Bessent in conjunction with his opposite number in Japan triggered a massive bear squeeze in the yen. This is reflected in our next chart:
Commentators pretending to know why Bessent did this have come up with various explanations. I conclude that it is a strategic error, and I will be posting a Substack article on Sunday explaining why it is so for MacleodFinance paid subscribers. But the point here is that it benefits neither of the national treasury departments to sow confusion into markets. As the ancient Chinese proverb says:
A wise merchant sits on the hole in his carpet to protect his reputation.
Some say that Bessent intervened to discourage Japanese institutions from selling US Treasuries. But the most profitable element of a Japanese institution’s holdings in USTs comes from the falling yen. The last thing they want is interventions of this kind and are hardly likely to continue buying US Treasuries if selling yen for dollars is less profitable. And the same is true of hedge funds using short yen as the basis of their carry trade into US Treasuries.
The fact of the matter is that Japan’s government debt, already at 240% of GDP is running into the brick wall of higher borrowing costs. All Bessent’s action has done is draw attention not just to Japan’s funding problems but alerts them to the US’s as well.
Actions of this sort destabilise the faith in fiat yen and now dollars. As a wake-up call, it perhaps explains why gold and silver prices are now moving noticeably higher. This week, gold has jumped from a low point of $4,030 to $4,317 at the time of writing. And silver by $8 from $56.50 to $64.50.
In other news, there appear to be belated and growing concerns in markets about the economic and inflationary consequences of the stalemate in the Middle East which show no signs of being resolved soon. Furthermore, the drawdown on US strategic oil reserves is coming to an end, which almost certainly leads to higher oil prices and higher government bond yields.
Remarkably, this is now leading to rising gold and silver prices as markets move from looking at yield differentials between metal lease rates and fiat currency interest rates, to assessing the risk of current developments to the status of fiat currencies. I repeat our introductory chart as a reminder of the last time the world faced a similar situation:
Even if events today just rhyme with those 53 years ago and gold doubles as rapidly today as it did then, the implication for the dollar is there will be a substantial collapse in its purchasing power and an existential crisis for the entire fiat currency system.
END
.3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
African countries are souring on the dollar
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2026-08-06 12:11 Section: Daily Dispatches
From The Economist, London
Thursday, August 6, 2026
On Cairo Road, a bustling commercial strip in Lusaka, Zambia’s capital, traders and shoppers once haggled over gadgets, furniture and other goods priced in dollars. For decades the greenback was similarly entrenched across the Zambian economy. From car purchases to business contracts, large transactions were routinely settled in the American currency. Interest rate decisions made by the Federal Reserve in Washington rippled through to the price of Zambian groceries and rents. When Zambia defaulted on its debt in 2020, the dollar’s strength at the time exacerbated the fallout.
The southern-African country is now trying to wean itself from the greenback. Last October Zambia became the first country on the continent to accept mining royalties and taxes in yuan. This eases capital flows between Zambia and China, the biggest buyer of Zambia’s abundant copper and its biggest creditor. It also reduces Zambian exposure to the dollar. What is more, since December the Bank of Zambia has required domestic transactions to be paid in local currency, boosting demand for the kwacha. Offenders face fines, up to two years in prison or both.
Zambia is illustrative of Africa in general. The dollar still dominates, with some 70% of the continent’s external public debt and many cross-border transactions still denominated in the currency. But countries are incrementally adopting alternatives to “king dollar.”
One beneficiary is the yuan. Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa, three of Africa’s biggest economies, have agreed new currency swaps with China as the share of trade settled in yuan expands. Kenya has converted dollar-denominated loans into yuan, potentially saving up to $215 million a year in interest costs, equivalent to nearly a fifth of its debt-service payments to China in 2025. Around two-thirds of the country’s outstanding debt to China is now denominated in yuan. Ethiopia and Mozambique are negotiating similar arrangements.
Several banks are building infrastructure to support yuan transactions. Last September Standard Bank, Africa’s largest lender by assets (which is part-owned by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, a giant state-owned lender), became the first to clear transactions through China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System. This has allowed businesses to settle payments directly in yuan.
Absa, one of South Africa’s largest banks, and Ecobank, whose reach spans over 30 African countries, are also looking to facilitate direct payments in yuan. Although the number of cross-border transactions in yuan remains small relative to those in dollars, it rose more than fourfold between 2020 and 2024 (the latest year for which official data are available). …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
prices will rise; good for Wheaton Precious Metals: (cobalt) and AEM (copper)
Congo bans export of copper and cobalt concentrates, Reuters says
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2026-08-06 10:15 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ange Adihe Kasongo and Maxwell Akalaare Adombila
Reuters
Thursday, August 6, 2026
KINSHASA, DR Congo — The Democratic Republic of Congo has banned exports of copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate as it escalates efforts to force domestic processing and retain more value from its mineral resources, a government order reviewed by Reuters today shows.
After Reuters reported the ban, benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose by as much as 1.8% to $14,369.50 a metric ton, the highest since January 29 when the metal hit an all-time peak of $14,527.50. It was trading at $14,300 as of 0930 GMT.
Congo is seeking to leverage its position as the world’s largest cobalt supplier and a major source of other energy-transition minerals, including copper, to build domestic processing capacity and retain a greater share of the wealth flowing from its mines.
The June 29 order, signed by Mines Minister Louis Kabamba Watum, Foreign Trade Minister Julien Paluku Kahongya and Economy Minister Daniel Mukoko Samba, says “the export of copper and cobalt concentrates is prohibited.”
The ban takes effect immediately, although one-year export waivers may be granted under strategic circumstances, the order said, without explaining further. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Asia turns to gold in structural wealth shift
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2026-08-05 10:20 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Kimberley Long
The Banker, London
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Asian banks have considerably increased their gold product offering in recent months, spurred by growing consumer and central bank demand for a safe-haven commodity and local clearing.
The number of gold-focused banking products and services has risen significantly since the start of 2026. New developments include Singapore’s DBS offering fractionalised gold trading through its retail app, enabling customers to purchase tokens backed by one gramme of physical gold.
On the central bank side, the Monetary Authority of Singapore will introduce central bank gold vaulting in October, allowing foreign central banks to securely store their gold in its reserves.
Singapore Exchange has also announced it will launch gold trading by the end of the year, with DBS, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank among six banks signed up as clearing members.
And in Hong Kong, a trial gold clearing was launched in July, which saw the introduction of a new gold price benchmark called HAU. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Why the U.S. stepped in after decades to prop up Japan’s yen, and what’s at stake
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2026-08-04 07:49 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Lee Ying Shan
CNBC, New York
Monday, August 3, 2026
Washington’s decision to join Japan in supporting the battered yen has prompted questions over what motivated the rare coordinated intervention, with analysts pointing to concerns over U.S. Treasury markets and Japan’s financial system.
Tokyo has grown increasingly wary of the yen’s decline, which recently dropped to its weakest level against the dollar in nearly four decades. The yen had been hovering at multi-decade lows, sliding to 163.73 per dollar last Thursday before rebounding to 157.57 on Friday.
The coordinated intervention was the first U.S.-Japan joint operation to buy yen since 1998, and the first coordinated intervention involving the two countries since the G7 acted to weaken the yen after the 2011 earthquake.
Industry veterans told CNBC that one of Washington’s biggest concerns was avoiding a scenario where Japan would need to dump large quantities of Treasurys to finance unilateral intervention, given how the north Asian nation is the largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt.
Louise Loo, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, said this was “possibly one of the key reasons” behind U.S. participation.
“There is a self-preservation element here. Volatile markets driven by potentially fiscally-aggressive policies from Japan could extend to the U.S. Treasury markets, destabilizing the dollar.”
Tokyo’s and Washington’s emphasis on the Federal Reserve’s standing FIMA repo facility — which allows foreign central banks to obtain dollar liquidity without selling Treasurys outright — “was a clue that they’d like to avoid forced-selling as much as possible,” she said.
Japan’s Finance Ministry said Monday it plans to use the FIMA repo facility for future interventions. Masahiko Loo, senior macro strategist at State Street, said the signal “may be bigger than the intervention itself.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
* * *
end
South Korea’s central bank to buy gold from domestic producers
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2026-08-03 10:47 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Heejin Kim
Reuters
Monday, August 3, 2026
SEOUL — South Korea’s central bank will buy gold from local producers to diversify its sources of supply and increase its holdings of the precious metal, it said today.
The Bank of Korea said it has established a framework for domestic gold purchases with local producers, Korea Exchange and Korea Securities Depository.
It will buy gold from domestic producers at international market prices via transactions, payment, and deposit systems of KRX and KSD, the bank said.
The purchases will have a limited impact on trading prices of gold in the country, since the bank plans to buy gold intended for exports only at contract prices, it added.
The bank said the purchases would support its management of foreign reserves. They mark the central bank’s first domestic gold purchases in 13 years, according to local media reports.
end
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/283
5. COMMODITY REPORT: GOLD
The Gold Squeeze Is On
“The Gold Squeeze Is On” is a recent (August 7, 2026) piece by The Market Ear, published on ZeroHedge (premium content).
zerohedge.com
The publicly available teaser states that gold has surged roughly $250 in a matter of sessions, turning a relatively quiet setup into a full-blown momentum move. Some short-term dislocations have already closed, but positioning and options activity suggest the chase may not be finished yet.
zerohedge.com
This follows earlier Market Ear commentary (including July pieces on a potential gold squeeze that “nobody sees coming”), which highlighted tightening technicals, resilient physical demand, subdued speculative positioning, China buying, CTAs that had been short, and a weakening dollar as ingredients for a potentially sharp upside move.
zerohedge.com
Current market context (as of August 7, 2026)Spot gold is trading in the ~$4,250–$4,320 range (reports show levels around $4,268–$4,322, up on the day and roughly +5–6% over the past month; it is up ~25–27% year-over-year). It reached an all-time high near $5,600 earlier in 2026 before consolidating.
tradingeconomics.com
The Market Ear’s public X post today simply noted: “Gold squeezed. Now watch the chase,” linking to the full piece.
@themarketear
Full details (technicals, positioning data, options flows, etc.) sit behind ZeroHedge/The Market Ear’s paywall. The core thesis in the free excerpts is that the move has shifted from setup to active squeeze/momentum, with potential for further chase higher if positioning remains supportive.If you’re looking for a summary of related free Market Ear notes, current charts, or broader gold-market drivers (central-bank buying, real rates, dollar, geopolitics, physical tightness), let me know what angle interests you.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 39.68 PTS OR 1.02%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 137.75 PTS OR 0.54%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 49.26 PTS OR 0.07%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.48%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7476
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7462 Oil UP TO 77.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 82.38 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7476 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7462 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.7476
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7462
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 137.75 PTS OR 0.54%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 49.26 PTS OR 0.67%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 77.17
BRENT; 82.38
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.78// EURO RISES TO 1.1529 UP 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.798 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 158.26… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.917 UP 2 FULL BASIS PT
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.7476) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7462
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD UPTO +3.1400/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 3.923/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.576%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.7978%
3j Gold at $4310.10//Silver at: 64.35 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 54/ 100 roubles/81.51
3m oil (WTI) into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 158.36 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.7917% UP 3 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.917 UP 2 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8103 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9343
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.666 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.209 UP 0 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.235 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 47.71 UP 11 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.9378 UP 5 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.6822 UP 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.626 UP 7 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.232 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Rise Ahead Of Closely Watched Jobs Report
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 08:26 AM
US futures grind higher in a European session devoid of newsflow ahead of nonfarm payrolls. As of 815am ET, S&P futures rose 0.2% while Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%, with some of yesterday’s beaten up tech names such as Sandisk and Western Digital getting some reprieve in the premarket. Asian stocks swung between a loss of as much as 0.5% and gain of 0.4%. South Korea’s Kospi declined as much as 2.2% before paring the loss; the index was headed to its seventh weekly drop, longest losing streak in more than three years. Nikkei and Taiex indexes also drift lower while indexes rose in mainland China. Oil was given a boost in APAC hours as progress on an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained elusive and a report noted that Iran attacked “hostile targets” in the Strait of Hormuz; but upside has since wavered with Brent now in the red and near session lows. US yields which track oil tick for tick, are down around 1bps across the curve with odds of a September Fed hike at around 60% as the clock ticks down to jobs data. The dollar is down 0.1% after posting its biggest advance in two weeks during the New York session. USD/JPY is maintaining its position on a 158 handle. Precious metals are marching higher with spot gold trading on a $4300/oz handle for the first time since mid-June. Bitcoin is up 0.7%. On today’s calendar we get the US July jobs report; other data releases include NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, June consumer credit. The Fed’s Barkin will also speak today.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.7%, Amazon +0.6%, Alphabet +0.1%, Nvidia +0.1%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -0.4%, Microsoft -0.5%)
- Applied Opto (AAOI) is up 14% after second-quarter earnings and revenue from the fiber-optic networking gear firm beat estimates. Peers including Fabrinet and Coherent gain.
- Atlassian (TEAM) soars 32% after the maker of Trello collaborative software reported an increase in quarterly revenue, easing concerns that AI would hurt the business.
- Cloudflare (NET) rallies 17% after the software company hikes its annual profit forecast, beating the average analyst estimate.
- DraftKings (DKNG) shares slip 3.6% in premarket trading after the sports-betting company reported revenue and adjusted Ebitda for the second quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
- Doximity (DOCS) soars 78% after the company raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2027.
- Figs (FIGS) jumps 29% after the medical-apparel maker posted a beat on second quarter results and upped its forecast for full-year adjusted Ebitda margin.
- Gold and silver stocks are rising in premarket Friday, with gold on track for its best week in more than six months as dip buyers supported prices.
- Maplebear Inc. (CART), doing business as Instacart, jumps 12% after the company’s forecast for third-quarter gross transaction value beat the average analyst estimate.
- Sezzle (SEZL) slides 22% as analysts look past the financial technology firm’s outlook upgrade for 2026, and say expectations had already built up around the earnings following the stock 181% year-to-date rally.
- Solar stocks rise in premarket Friday after President Donald Trump ordered new 15% tariffs and a price floor for imports of polysilicon derivatives, including silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells and solar modules.
- Sweetgreen (SG) sinks 15% after the salad chain cut its annual outlook after warning that diners are less willing to eat fresh prepared foods during the cyclospora outbreak.
- Trade Desk (TTD) tumbles 27% after the advertising technology company#s reported earnings for the second quarter and gave a third-quarter-revenue forecast that missed analyst estimates. At least four brokerages downgraded their rating on the stock
In other news, SK Hynix plans a 54 trillion won ($38 billion) expansion of its DRAM and NAND manufacturing in South Korea, part of the giant outlay announced earlier in the summer. Jane Street is negotiating with investors in a private-credit deal to rework the firm’s $11 billion debt load and limit its financial disclosures to market participants. The FAA has asked operators of 471 Boeing 737 Max jets to undertake checks for cracks of a component that could undermine the structural integrity of the aircraft.
Ahead of today’s main event, the July jobs data at 8:30am (full preview here), which will give Warsh further insight into whether to keep rates on hold or hike, the median estimate for nonfarm payrolls change is 80k, following 57k in June. Crowd-sourced whisper number is currently 78k. JPMorgan market intelligence scenarios show that a hawkish reading, leading to negative market reaction, would be a print above 150k. Stronger-than-expected data could trigger a pullback in risk assets by reinforcing expectations that rates will stay higher for longer. Goldman notes that alternative measures of employment growth slowed modestly in July.
“Kevin Warsh’s ambiguity at the July FOMC means data releases like today’s payrolls carry greater risks of an outsized market reaction,” ING Bank strategists including Frantisek Taborsky wrote in a note. “We are still looking at no Fed cuts and dollar softening going forward.”
“A weaker top-line figure will be enough to spark rallies in Treasuries even if it’s paired with subdued unemployment, because slowdown risk would begin to make its way onto the curve if fixed-income investors fear that rosters could start contracting,” José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note.
Oil retreated from Thursday’s sharp rise as traders weighed negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz against renewed tensions, with Tehran seeking to bar US ships from a deal to partially restore shipping through the critical waterway. Brent crude fell 0.7% to below $82 a barrel, bringing its decline this week to 6.9%.
Elsewhere, BofA’s Michael Hartnett said EPS optimism is soaring, while recommending investors retreat from risk assets and/or rotate into some defensives (staples), duration (REITs, small cap, biotech) and US dollar, all protected from ongoing tightening of financial conditions. The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rises to 9.7 from 9.4, the highest since 2021 and in “sell signal” territory.
The Stoxx 600 rose 0.6% as European equities edged higher on Friday with technology and health care stocks leading gains, while the biggest laggards are telecommunications and energy shares. Novo Nordisk A/S climbed 4.6% after a US judge threw out an antitrust lawsuit against its blockbuster weight-loss drug. Among other movers in Europe, Kingspan Group Plc surged to a four-year high after the insulation specialist lifted full-year guidance. Genmab A/S jumped 8.3% after the Danish biotech company reported better-than-expected second quarter profit and boosted its outlook for the full year. Daimler Truck Holding AG fell 4% after reporting results. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Kingspan shares rise as much 17% after the insulation specialist topped expectations in the first half and lifted its trading profit guidance for the full year
- Genmab jumps as much as 10%, the most since February 2024, after the Danish biotech company reported better-than-expected revenue and operating income for the second quarter and boosted its outlook for the full year
- Novo Nordisk gains as much as 5.4%, outperforming the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index and putting the stock back into positive territory for the week
- Mol rises as much as 2.6% after the Hungarian refiner reported Clean CCS Ebitda for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
- Aurubis shares drop as much as 5.7%, extending Thursday’s 5.5% decline following the copper smelter’s one-year delay to a new American smelting complex. Deutsche Bank cut its price target slightly
- Daimler Truck falls as much as 4.4% after the German firm announced weaker orders than analysts had expected and softer third-quarter guidance after its second-quarter results were pre-released last month
- Stellantis drops as much as 3.8% as the carmaker was downgraded to underperform from market-perform at Bernstein, which says there is still substantial scope for estimate reductions
- Orlen slips as much as 3.5% after the Polish refiner reported second-quarter results that analysts described as mixed. Wood & Co analysts cited disappointing oil & gas production despite favorable market conditions
- Amrize drops as much as 11%, on course to close at a record-low, after the building-materials company missed earnings expectations in the second quarter and cut its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the year
- Lanxess falls as much as 6.2% after the German chemical firm posted results that Goldman Sachs analysts said offered little to sustain recent positive momentum
- Munich Re declines as much as 5.3%, the most since May and the worst performer on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the German reinsurer cut its insurance revenue guidance for the year
- Erdemir falls as much as 6.6%, the most since May 21, as its second-quarter profit beat was attributed to a positive tax expense rather than operations
Asian stocks traded in a narrow range, as investors stayed cautious ahead of US payrolls data while awaiting concrete signs of progress on a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between a loss of as much as 0.5% and gain of as much as 0.4%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.6%, while indexes in China advanced. SK Hynix narrowed losses in post-market trading on Nextrade after the company announced plans for a 54 trillion won ($38 billion) expansion of its local chipmaking facilities. The company also said it will detail shareholder return plans in the third quarter. The overall relative market calm after recent big swings belied ongoing unease over a tech-led rally that has faltered in the past month, as investors look for clues on sustainability of the AI boom. US-Iran talks are also keeping traders on their toes, with the impact on oil prices keenly in focus. The US jobs report due later Friday will give clues on the health of the world’s largest economy. Here Are the Most Notable Movers
- SBI reported net income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- SK Hynix is actively considering additional shareholder returns and will announce details in 3Q, according to a regulatory filing.
- China rare earth stocks jump as growing optimism over their strategic importance amid US-China tensions boosts sentiment. Wharf Real Estate Investment shares rise after JPMorgan upgraded the firm to overweight from neutral while Citi opened a 90-day upside catalyst watch.
- Lasertec shares fell 14%, after the Japanese semiconductor company’s full-year operating income guidance fell short of the average analyst estimate.
- Bridgestone reported adjusted operating profit for the first half-year that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Eneos reported operating income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- China rare earth stocks jump as growing optimism over their strategic importance amid US-China tensions boosts sentiment.
- Obayashi reported operating income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Wharf Real Estate Investment shares rise as much as 8.3%, after JPMorgan upgraded the firm to overweight from neutral while Citi opened a 90-day upside catalyst watch.
- Fujifilm Holdings Corp. shares fell by the most on record after the Japanese company reported weaker-than-projected quarterly results.
“It’s the caution on Middle East conflict and secondarily on interest rate direction,” said Xin-Yao Ng, a fund manager at Aberdeen. “In tech as well, there have been some earnings misses, and investors are starting to take more nuanced views on stocks, more driven on stock specific factors than being driven by blanket views on sectors.”
In FX. the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1%. USD/JPY is maintaining its position on a 158 handle. US support for Japan’s efforts to prop up the yen is unlikely to damage the dollar’s status as the most dominant reserve currency, according to Goldman Sachs.
In rates, treasuries are marginally richer across the curve led by 5- to 7-year sectors, supported by lower oil prices as traders weigh negotiations between Iran and Oman against renewed tensions. Treasury yields richer by 1.5bp to 2.5bp across the curve with key curve spreads steeper by less than a basis point. US 10-year yield is around 4.66% as Treasuries slightly outperform European bonds. US session main event is July jobs report, with around 60% of a quarter-point rate hike priced in for Fed’s September policy meeting. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Alphabet’s jumbo offering headlined a $37b docket Thursday, bringing weekly supply to $80b. Issuers paid about 12bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.8 times oversubscribed.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 0.7% after erasing gains. Precious metals are marching higher with spot gold trading on a $4300/oz handle for the first time since mid-June. Bitcoin is up 0.7%.
Today’s top event is the July jobs data at 8:30am, where the median estimate for nonfarm payrolls change is 80k, following 57k in June. Crowd-sourced whisper number is currently 78k. US economic data calendar also includes July 1-year NY Fed inflation expectations (11am) and June consumer credit (3pm). Fed speakers scheduled include Richmond Fed’s Barkin at 10am
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- The Houthis conducted a “large-scale” attack against forces from Yemen’s Saudi-backed government killing “hundreds” of troops. They also struck the southwestern Saudi region of Najran, raising concerns over a widening of the US-Israeli war on Iran into a broader conflict. BBG
- Trump said negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are “moving along,” even after some Iranian lawmakers said they would seek to bar American and Israeli ships from the waterway as part of the deal: BBG
- According to the apparent draft plan published by Iran, the country would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait. Until compensation is paid, other nations that have harmed Iran would not be allowed to transit. While Iran and Oman are reportedly working on an agreement to define transit routes in the Hormuz strait, a deal still has not been announced. According to media reports, inbound traffic would transit Iranian waters while outbound traffic would go through Omani waters. CNBC
- The war on Iran is hitting nations in Asia hard, with Australia and New Zealand racking up billions of dollars in higher fuel costs: BBG
- Trump ordered new tariffs and price floors on imported polysilicon used in chips and solar panels. The 15% levies take effect December 4th and could trigger a rush of purchases. BBG
- Chinese firm Moonshot’s latest artificial intelligence model broke out of a cyber-testing environment in the latest incident that raises concerns about how well AI companies control their technology. Moonshot joins US firms Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta., which have in recent weeks reported breaches that saw their models escape testing environments. BBG
- China’s July crude imports rebounded 22% from June to 35.7 million tons, while inbound shipments of iron ore fell. Soybean purchases tumbled more than 15% in the same period. BBG
- Japan’s household spending unexpectedly fell for a seventh month, declining 3.3% in June, even as real wages continued to increase. BBG
- SK Hynix will invest about $38 billion to build two new chip plants in South Korea, adding to efforts to rapidly double its production capacity and ease a global shortage of memory. It also announced it could make a formal statement on shareholder capital return in Q3. BBG/Reuters
- U.S. job growth likely picked up in July, offering reassurance that the labor market remained resilient and allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain its focus on inflation. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report today at 8:30am is also expected to show the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2% last month even as the labor force participation rate is anticipated to have rebounded after declining to more than a five-year low in June. Reuters
- Airbnb jumped premarket after boosting its revenue forecast for the second time this year on robust global travel demand, particularly in the US and Europe. BBG
- Japan’s ¥317.76 trillion ($2 trillion) Government Pension Investment Fund posted a record 8.2% gain in the three months ended in June: BBG
- US President Trump, when asked if Fed Governor Warsh could hike ahead of the mid-terms, said it’s “up to him a little bit, but not completely” and continued to praise Warsh. Within the interview Trump also suggested that GOP voters may not come to vote as he is not on the ballot, saying “They’re angry at Republicans, but they’re not angry at me.”
- US President Trump said it is way too early to think about a JD Vance endorsement [for President].
- BofA’s weekly flow report noted USD 53.7bln into cash, USD 32.9bln into stocks, USD 23.1bln into bonds, USD 0.9bln into gold and USD 0.6bln into crypto. Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.7 (from 9.4).
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks ultimately traded mixed following the weak lead from Wall Street, while participants also digested a busy slate of earnings and the latest Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was little changed as strength in materials, energy and miners counterbalanced the underperformance in the financials and defensive sectors, while participants also reflected on the somewhat mixed trade data from Australia’s largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 declined amid a busy day of earnings and with risk sentiment not helped by disappointing Household Spending data, which showed a surprise contraction, while a government official noted that typhoons, cold weather and more rain led to reduced beverage and dining out expenses. KOSPI retreated with price action initially choppy amid some earnings releases and the mixed performances seen in South Korea’s tech heavyweights. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat with the Hong Kong benchmark in relatively flat territory, while the mainland outperformed after the latest Chinese trade data, which showed exports topped forecasts, and imports missed with a sharper-than-forecast deceleration, but continued to show double-digit percentage growth.
Top Asian News
- Japanese Finance Ministry data showed Japan conducted yen buying intervention on a total of three days in April and May, while the largest daily intervention in April-June quarter was JPY 6.2787tln on April 30th
European bourses begin Friday’s trade mixed, with the DAX 40 outperforming while the IBEX 35 lags. Focus still remains on the Middle East. Overnight, MS News reported that Oman and Iran reached an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, although the diplomats declined to describe the details of the temporary agreement or what issues remain unresolved. Sectors lack a clear bias. Health Care tops the sector pile, after Genmab’s (+9.2%) H1 revenue rose Y/Y and lifted its FY outlook. Tech and Media round out the top 3 outperformers. To the downside is Telecoms, with Utilities and Travel & Leisure following suit.
Top European News
- German Balance of Trade (Jun) 15.4B vs. Exp. 17.4B (Prev. 19.1B).
- German Exports MoM (Jun) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%).
- German Imports MoM (Jun) M/M 4.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. -2.5%).
- German Industrial Production MoM (Jun) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.9%).
- French Balance of Trade (Jun) -5.8B vs. Exp. -6.5B (Prev. -6.9B).
- French Exports (Jun) 54.5B (Prev. 53.6B).
- French Imports (Jun) 60.4B (Prev. 60.5B).
- French Unemployment Rate (Q2) 8.3% vs. Exp. 8.2% (Prev. 8.1%).
FX
- Very quiet action in G10 FX ahead of this afternoon’s NFP.
- DXY flat against all G10 peers (ex. Scandis) ahead of US Payrolls, trading just below 100.00 as it did throughout APAC. Expectations are for the US economy to have added 88K nonfarm payrolls in July, up from June’s 57K, with the unemployment rate seen holding steady at 4.2%. Some desks also flag the possibility of large revisions given survey modelling factors. Compiling banks’ scenario analysis, the likely reaction will be the typical dovish on a soft headline print and hawkish on a hot figure. GS and JPM flag the unwinding of World Cup-related hiring and a rebound in labour force participation which could skew July toward softer payrolls. Deutsche Bank summarises, “In summary, if the labour market data remain stable as we expect, Fed officials will be left with one side of its dual mandate to focus on inflation.”, a view more in line with FT sources citing Governor Warsh’s focus on incoming inflation data as reported on Thursday.
- Scandis are modestly outperforming today, EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK finding further sellers both below 11.00. Guidance at the Norges Bank decision next week could further cement a hike later in the year and increase appetite for carry. EUR/SEK may remain in tighter ranges with the 50 DMA above at 10.99, and 100DMA below at 10.92. EUR/NOK is below all significant DMAs, with the 100DMA above at 11.00.
- Action is quiet elsewhere. EUR outperforms vs. most CEE currencies after a somewhat dovish CNB meeting on Thursday, while HUF reacts to soft July inflation data which fell beneath previous and the NBH’s forecast.
Fixed Income
- A contained start to the final session of the week for fixed, with the market now waiting for US NFP and a concrete update on the situation between the US and Iran.
- USTs in a narrow 108-13 to 108-17 parameter, into Payrolls. Proxies into the print have been mixed, weekly claims hit nearly a 60yr low, but in contrast the ADP figure was below consensus. Similar divergence seen across other indicators, such as ISM. While pertinent, the main focus for the Fed is on the inflation side of the mandate, as officials continue to characterise the labour market as stable. As such, next week’s CPI may prove more influential, particularly after the FT sources piece on Thursday, which enhanced the focus on such prints into the next FOMC.
- Bunds and Gilts are also relatively contained, though with a bearish bias and are posting downside of around 20 ticks. Specifics for the space are a little light, the focus is firmly on the above factors. Bunds lower in a 124.71-89 band, while Gilts are off worst in 87.09-38 confines.
- Australia sells AUD 1bln 1.50% June 2031 bonds b/c 4.07, avg yield 4.5878%.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent futures have been holding a mild positive bias since the futures reopen as tensions between the Houthis and Saudis grow, while questions remain regarding the Iran-Oman deal as Iranian reporting on the text of the deal pointed to unfavourable terms for the US and its regional allies. Add to that, sources noted that the sound of two explosions heard in Qeshm late on Thursday was due to a confrontation with hostile targets at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Markets await official details of the Iran-Oman deal and the US’ reaction. Newsflow throughout the European morning has been light, with WTI Sep’26 in a current USD 77.56-78.77/bbl range, whilst Brent Oct’26 resides in a USD 83.04-84.44/bbl range thus far. Dutch TTF is off highs but firmer intraday, briefly dipping under EUR 56.50/MWh after finding resistance near EUR 59/MWh.
- Metals are firmer despite the oil move, as markets continue to hope for US-Iran diplomacy. Spot gold gradually gained amid reports of the PBoC stockpiling more gold in Hong Kong, although the precious metal remains within the prior day’s parameters as participants await the key US jobs data. The yellow metal trades towards the top end of a USD 4,230-4,316/oz vs yesterday’s USD 4,224-4,304/oz range. Spot silver outperforms after topping yesterday’s USD 62.91/oz high and regains the USD 64/oz mark.
- Copper futures traded sideways but with modest intraday gains in a narrow USD 14,226.13- 14,106.85/t range for 3M LME, with the broader metals space awaiting NFP in the absence of fresh geopolitical updates.
- UBS forecasts Gold to reach USD 5k/oz in H1 2027; notes Gold prices may remain relatively volatile in the near term.
Trade/Tariffs
- White House said tariffs on polysilicon and related products will begin at 00:01EDT on December 4th.
- Canadian minister responsible for Canada-US trade LeBlanc said Canadian trade negotiators held productive and detailed talks with USTR Greer in Washington on Thursday.
Central Banks
- Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) said inflation is too high and the balance of risks is tilted towards higher price pressures, while he added it is crucial that monetary policy puts meaningful restraint on inflation. Musalem commented it is wrong to keep rate policy easy, hoping to foster higher productivity rates. Furthermore, he favoured raising rates at the recent FOMC meeting and sees a higher probability that inflation will remain above the target, as well as stated that gradual rate increases are less costly than more abrupt rate changes.
Geopolitics: Iran
- US President Trump said he thinks the war with Iran will end pretty soon and that the Strait of Hormuz is sort of opened right now. He later said that it is moving along good regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said we will not allow the opening of the second route in the Strait of Hormuz, and reiterated that if the blockade continues, American ships and forces will face serious dangers and casualties, according to Tasnim.
- Explosions were reportedly heard in Marib, western Yemen, according to Al Arabiya TV citing local sources.
- Saudi source said reliable intelligence reports indicate coordination between Houthi and Iraqi militias and the Revolutionary Guard to attack the Kingdom, Al Hadath reported. The source added that the coordination of militias against the Kingdom comes as negotiations are progressing positively and that the Kingdom will not hesitate to take all necessary measures to deal with any aggression.
- Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are to sign joint defence agreement in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to sources cited by Reuters.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US President Trump said he thinks they are making progress on Russia and Ukraine.
- US intelligence finds Russian President Putin is seeking ways to test NATO resolve as grip on Ukraine slips and could test its resolve with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years, according to WSJ.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Jul Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 80k, prior 57k
- 8:30 am: Jul Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 3.5k, prior 3k
- 8:30 am: Jul Unemployment Rate, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to another payrolls Friday. I’m trying to keep myself off the grid as much as possible at the moment as I’ve just started work on the annual long-term study. It’s always daunting having a blank sheet of paper at the start of the process and trying to think of something original, interesting, analytical, and actionable. After over 20 years of doing it, when I finally find that combination, I’ll let you know.
In terms of today’s big number, our economists expect a slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously) and private (+65k vs. +49k) payrolls. They suggest this would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports. Consensus is at 80k for both. Our economists expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2% on a rounded basis versus 4.19% last month, which was its lowest reading in a year, even if it was accompanied by a 0.3pp fall in the labour force participation. So there is a risk this corrects and we see a tick up to 4.3%.
Ahead of this, markets have edged a bit more nervously into the end of the week over the last 24 hours as preliminary details on the finalized Iran-Oman deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz emerged. The details, which included a permitting licensing framework and ban on US and Israeli vessels transiting, were reported by Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, which cited a source from the country’s foreign ministry. So those conditions on the deal led Brent oil to rise +3.83% back up to $82.49/bbl, while WTI (+2.75% to $77.29/bbl) also spiked. European natural gas prices also rose +6.42% in their largest daily rise in two months. In turn, the higher energy prices weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 (-0.18%) down whilst sovereign yields ended the day notably higher. This morning Brent is another +1.98% higher after Fars also reported that Iran struck “hostile targets” at the entrance to the Strait.
Delving into more details of the proposed Iran-Oman deal first, whilst information is still trickling in, what we know based on the Fars reporting is that US and Israeli vessels would be prohibited from transiting through the Strait, with cargo related to Israel also banned. Other countries that caused damage to Iran will also not be granted a permit until the damage is compensated, with Iran stating that violators will face a penalty up to 20% of their cargo value. So this seems to be Iran setting the terms. Meanwhile, Reuters reported earlier in the day that Iran was seeking fees of 5% to 7% of the cargo price for ships transiting Hormuz, while Oman was discussing 3%. Either of these would be higher than the reported ad hoc payments Iran had received from ships back in the spring. The big doubt is whether such terms would be acceptable to the US. While prohibition of US-owned vessels might have a negligible practical impact, the US has been resistant to an outcome that would fall short of free movement through Hormuz. That said, Trump’s limited comments last night shied away from any escalation, saying that things are “moving along good”.
The renewed rise in energy prices meant that investors dialed up inflation expectations again, with the US 1yr inflation swap rising by +11.0bps, its largest daily increase in four weeks. Meanwhile, the amount of Fed hikes priced by year-end rose by +3.0bps to 34bps. In turn, US treasury yields climbed higher yesterday, with 2, 10, and 30yr +6.6bps, +6.6bps and +5.6bps higher respectively. Real yields also rebounded, with the 5yr real yield up +3.5bps. And with yields and oil moving higher, the dollar (+0.25%) had its best day in two weeks.
Stronger data and continued labour market resilience also contributed to the move in rates. That included initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, which were a little lower than expected at 199k (vs 205k est), and the latest job cut announcements from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which fell to its lowest level in two years at 33,429 vs 45,849 the prior month. Finally, yesterday’s US non-farm productivity for Q2 (+1.4% vs +0.6% est) was also stronger than expected with upward revisions (from 0.3% to 0.8% for Q1).
Prior to the Oman-Iran deal news as well, markets got a fresh boost of hawkish sentiment after the FT reported that Warsh would be prepared to raise interest rates at next month’s meeting if inflation readings released in the coming weeks are hot. Citing sources close to Warsh, the article also argued that Warsh would use the policy rate as the main policy tool, consistent with a view that the balance sheet is not a feasible tool over the immediate policy-relevant horizon. On an interesting side note, the appearance of this article suggests that the FT could become the home of Fed sources going forward with the WSJ seemingly out of favour. Bessant’s extraordinary social media posts critical of their Chief Economics Correspondent Nick Timiraos on Wednesday perhaps set the scene for the passing of the baton.
Turning to equities now, the S&P 500 (-0.18%) dipped on the news of the details of the Oman-Iran deal. Tech indices saw mixed moves, with the Nasdaq Composite (-0.06%) slipping but the Mag-7 (+0.24%) and the Philly semiconductor index (+0.33%) managing to advance. Energy (+1.59%) was the only sector in the S&P 500 to post a clear advance, while more energy-exposed sectors including industrials (-0.83%) and materials (-0.79%) struggled.
In European markets, which closed shortly before the Fars News report, equities put in a more positive performance in comparison to US counterparts. The Stoxx 600 (+0.16%) and CAC 40 (+0.35%) posted fresh highs, while the DAX (+0.05%) also crept up. Only the FTSE 100 (-0.19%) underperformed. Similarly in rates, while the rise in inflation pricing was modest (+0.9bps for 5yr), nominal yields did move higher. Gilts led the rise, with the 10yr gilt yield up +4.8bps, followed by OATs (+3.3bps) and bunds (+2.9bps).
Asian equity markets are generally weaker this morning with the exception of Chinese related markets. The KOSPI (-1.10%) is trading lower again, extending its weekly losses to more than 6% and putting the index on course for a seventh consecutive weekly decline. The Nikkei (-0.55%) is also moving lower, although it remains on track to post a weekly gain of over +1.0%. In contrast, mainland Chinese equities are outperforming, with the CSI 300 (+0.83%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.50%) both advancing. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+0.15%) is trading modestly higher, while the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.03%) is struggling for direction. US equity futures and Treasuries are fairly flat this morning.
Earlier this morning, data showed that Japanese household spending unexpectedly contracted by 3.3% year-over-year in June, compared with market expectations for a 0.9% increase. This marked the seventh consecutive monthly decline, with spending likely impacted by adverse weather conditions, including multiple typhoons, heavier-than-usual rainfall, and below-average temperatures. If Japan could send some of that weather our way we would be very grateful.
To the day ahead now, we’ll receive the US July jobs report. Other data releases include NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, June consumer credit. In Europe, we’ll also receive Germany’s June trade balance and industrial production, France June current account balance, trade balance. The Fed’s Barkin will also speak today.
1b European opening report
Quiet action ahead of NFP; DXY and USTs flat, stocks firmer – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 05:47 AM
- US President Trump thinks the war with Iran will end pretty soon and said the Strait of Hormuz is sort of open right now.
- US equity futures mixed, with NQ futures outperforming following strong MCHP earnings.
- DXY muted; EUR unreactive following German trade data.
- USTs flat ahead of the US jobs report, NFP expected at 85K.
- Energy benchmarks rangebound as markets await official details on the Hormuz agreement.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobs Report (Jul), Canadian Jobs Report (Jul), Ivey PMI (Jul), NY Fed SCE (Jul), Comments from Fed’s Barkin. Credit Ratings include S&P on Switzerland.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses begin Friday’s trade mixed, with the DAX 40 outperforming while the IBEX 35 lags. Focus still remains on the Middle East. Overnight, MS News reported that Oman and Iran reached an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, although the diplomats declined to describe the details of the temporary agreement or what issues remain unresolved.
- Sectors lack a clear bias. Health Care tops the sector pile, after Genmab’s (+9.2%) H1 revenue rose Y/Y and lifted its FY outlook. Tech and Media round out the top 3 outperformers. To the downside is Telecoms, with Utilities and Travel & Leisure following suit.
- US equity futures are mixed, with the YM underperforming. Contrary to Thursday’s pre-cash trade, the NQ is outperforming, helped by upside in Microchip Tech pre-market (+8.9%). After-hours, the Co. reported a Q1 revenue beat, and revenue topped forecasts, supported by strengthening demand across AI data centres, industrial, automotive and aerospace markets.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- Very quiet action in G10 FX ahead of this afternoon’s NFP.
- DXY flat against all G10 peers (ex. Scandis) ahead of US Payrolls, trading just below 100.00 as it did throughout APAC. Expectations are for the US economy to have added 88K nonfarm payrolls in July, up from June’s 57K, with the unemployment rate seen holding steady at 4.2%. Some desks also flag the possibility of large revisions given survey modelling factors. Compiling banks’ scenario analysis, the likely reaction will be the typical dovish on a soft headline print and hawkish on a hot figure. GS and JPM flag the unwinding of World Cup-related hiring and a rebound in labour force participation which could skew July toward softer payrolls. Deutsche Bank summarises, “In summary, if the labour market data remain stable as we expect, Fed officials will be left with one side of its dual mandate to focus on inflation.”, a view more in line with FT sources citing Governor Warsh’s focus on incoming inflation data as reported on Thursday.
- Scandis are modestly outperforming today, EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK finding further sellers both below 11.00. Guidance at the Norges Bank decision next week could further cement a hike later in the year and increase appetite for carry. EUR/SEK may remain in tighter ranges with the 50 DMA above at 10.99, and 100DMA below at 10.92. EUR/NOK is below all significant DMAs, with the 100DMA above at 11.00.
- Action is quiet elsewhere. EUR outperforms vs. most CEE currencies after a somewhat dovish CNB meeting on Thursday, while HUF reacts to soft July inflation data which fell beneath previous and the NBH’s forecast.
FIXED INCOME
- A contained start to the final session of the week for fixed, with the market now waiting for US NFP and a concrete update on the situation between the US and Iran.
- USTs in a narrow 108-13 to 108-17 parameter, into Payrolls. Proxies into the print have been mixed, weekly claims hit nearly a 60yr low, but in contrast the ADP figure was below consensus. Similar divergence seen across other indicators, such as ISM. While pertinent, the main focus for the Fed is on the inflation side of the mandate, as officials continue to characterise the labour market as stable. As such, next week’s CPI may prove more influential, particularly after the FT sources piece on Thursday, which enhanced the focus on such prints into the next FOMC.
- Bunds and Gilts are also relatively contained, though with a bearish bias and are posting downside of around 20 ticks. Specifics for the space are a little light, the focus is firmly on the above factors. Bunds lower in a 124.71-89 band, while Gilts are off worst in 87.09-38 confines.
- Australia sells AUD 1bln 1.50% June 2031 bonds b/c 4.07, avg yield 4.5878%.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent futures have been holding a mild positive bias since the futures reopen as tensions between the Houthis and Saudis grow, while questions remain regarding the Iran-Oman deal as Iranian reporting on the text of the deal pointed to unfavourable terms for the US and its regional allies. Add to that, sources noted that the sound of two explosions heard in Qeshm late on Thursday was due to a confrontation with hostile targets at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Markets await official details of the Iran-Oman deal and the US’ reaction. Newsflow throughout the European morning has been light, with WTI Sep’26 in a current USD 77.56-78.77/bbl range, whilst Brent Oct’26 resides in a USD 83.04-84.44/bbl range thus far. Dutch TTF is off highs but firmer intraday, briefly dipping under EUR 56.50/MWh after finding resistance near EUR 59/MWh.
- Metals are firmer despite the oil move, as markets continue to hope for US-Iran diplomacy. Spot gold gradually gained amid reports of the PBoC stockpiling more gold in Hong Kong, although the precious metal remains within the prior day’s parameters as participants await the key US jobs data. The yellow metal trades towards the top end of a USD 4,230-4,316/oz vs yesterday’s USD 4,224-4,304/oz range. Spot silver outperforms after topping yesterday’s USD 62.91/oz high and regains the USD 64/oz mark.
- Copper futures traded sideways but with modest intraday gains in a narrow USD 14,226.13- 14,106.85/t range for 3M LME, with the broader metals space awaiting NFP in the absence of fresh geopolitical updates.
- UBS forecasts Gold to reach USD 5k/oz in H1 2027; notes Gold prices may remain relatively volatile in the near term.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- White House said tariffs on polysilicon and related products will begin at 00:01EDT on December 4th.
- Canadian minister responsible for Canada-US trade LeBlanc said Canadian trade negotiators held productive and detailed talks with USTR Greer in Washington on Thursday.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- German Balance of Trade (Jun) 15.4B vs. Exp. 17.4B (Prev. 19.1B).
- German Exports MoM (Jun) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%).
- German Imports MoM (Jun) M/M 4.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. -2.5%).
- German Industrial Production MoM (Jun) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.9%).
- French Balance of Trade (Jun) -5.8B vs. Exp. -6.5B (Prev. -6.9B).
- French Exports (Jun) 54.5B (Prev. 53.6B).
- French Imports (Jun) 60.4B (Prev. 60.5B).
- French Unemployment Rate (Q2) 8.3% vs. Exp. 8.2% (Prev. 8.1%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) said inflation is too high and the balance of risks is tilted towards higher price pressures, while he added it is crucial that monetary policy puts meaningful restraint on inflation. Musalem commented it is wrong to keep rate policy easy, hoping to foster higher productivity rates. Furthermore, he favoured raising rates at the recent FOMC meeting and sees a higher probability that inflation will remain above the target, as well as stated that gradual rate increases are less costly than more abrupt rate changes.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump, when asked if Fed Governor Warsh could hike ahead of the mid-terms, said it’s “up to him a little bit, but not completely” and continued to praise Warsh. Within the interview Trump also suggested that GOP voters may not come to vote as he is not on the ballot, saying “They’re angry at Republicans, but they’re not angry at me.”
- US President Trump said it is way too early to think about a JD Vance endorsement [for President].
- BofA’s weekly flow report noted USD 53.7bln into cash, USD 32.9bln into stocks, USD 23.1bln into bonds, USD 0.9bln into gold and USD 0.6bln into crypto. Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.7 (from 9.4).
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said he thinks the war with Iran will end pretty soon and that the Strait of Hormuz is sort of opened right now. He later said that it is moving along good regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said we will not allow the opening of the second route in the Strait of Hormuz, and reiterated that if the blockade continues, American ships and forces will face serious dangers and casualties, according to Tasnim.
- Explosions were reportedly heard in Marib, western Yemen, according to Al Arabiya TV citing local sources.
- Saudi source said reliable intelligence reports indicate coordination between Houthi and Iraqi militias and the Revolutionary Guard to attack the Kingdom, Al Hadath reported. The source added that the coordination of militias against the Kingdom comes as negotiations are progressing positively and that the Kingdom will not hesitate to take all necessary measures to deal with any aggression.
- Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are to sign joint defence agreement in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to sources cited by Reuters.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said he thinks they are making progress on Russia and Ukraine.
- US intelligence finds Russian President Putin is seeking ways to test NATO resolve as grip on Ukraine slips and could test its resolve with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years, according to WSJ.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin holds firm above the USD 64k mark, and has reversed the entirety of Thursday’s losses amid the broadly positive risk tone.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks ultimately traded mixed following the weak lead from Wall Street, while participants also digested a busy slate of earnings and the latest Chinese trade data.
- ASX 200 was little changed as strength in materials, energy and miners counterbalanced the underperformance in the financials and defensive sectors, while participants also reflected on the somewhat mixed trade data from Australia’s largest trading partner.
- Nikkei 225 declined amid a busy day of earnings and with risk sentiment not helped by disappointing Household Spending data, which showed a surprise contraction, while a government official noted that typhoons, cold weather and more rain led to reduced beverage and dining out expenses.
- KOSPI retreated with price action initially choppy amid some earnings releases and the mixed performances seen in South Korea’s tech heavyweights.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat with the Hong Kong benchmark in relatively flat territory, while the mainland outperformed after the latest Chinese trade data, which showed exports topped forecasts, and imports missed with a sharper-than-forecast deceleration, but continued to show double-digit percentage growth.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Finance Ministry data showed Japan conducted yen buying intervention on a total of three days in April and May, while the largest daily intervention in April-June quarter was JPY 6.2787tln on April 30th
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese Balance of Trade (Jul) 112.5B vs. Exp. 108.0B (Prev. 125.62B).
- Chinese Exports YoY (Jul) Y/Y 23.9% vs. Exp. 22.7% (Prev. 27%).
- Chinese Imports YoY (Jul) Y/Y 27.5% vs. Exp. 28.6% (Prev. 36%).
- Taiwan Balance of Trade (Jul) 17.2B vs. Exp. 16.5B (Prev. 12.2B).
- Taiwan Exports YoY (Jul) Y/Y 32.9% vs. Exp. 40.7% (Prev. 40.3%).
- Taiwan Imports YoY (Jul) Y/Y 37.4% vs. Exp. 48.4% (Prev. 51.8%).
- Japanese Household Spending MoM (Jun) M/M -6.4% vs. Exp. -3.1% (Prev. 3.7%).
- Japanese Household Spending YoY (Jun) Y/Y -3.3% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -0.3%).
1c) Asian opening report
Europe primed for flat open following indecisive APAC lead into NFP – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 02:10 AM
- US President Trump thinks the war with Iran will end pretty soon and said the Strait of Hormuz is sort of open right now; Trump conducted a phone call with the Saudi Crown Prince.
- Oman and Iran reached an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, according to MS Now citing two Middle East diplomats, although the diplomats declined to describe the details of the temporary agreement or what issues remain unresolved.
- A strategic plan for managing the Strait of Hormuz would reportedly prohibit the passage of vessels belonging to the US, Israel and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz.
- APAC stocks ultimately traded mixed following the weak lead from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a mildly lower cash market open.
- DXY took a breather, 10yr UST futures remained lacklustre, and Crude futures extended on the prior day’s rally.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production (Jun), Trade Balance (Jun), French Trade Balance (Jun), US Jobs Report (Jul), Canadian Jobs Report (Jul), Ivey PMI (Jul), NY Fed SCE (Jul), Fed’s Barkin. Credit Ratings include S&P on Switzerland.
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump thinks the war with Iran will end pretty soon and said the Strait of Hormuz is sort of open right now.
- US President Trump conducted a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss Iran matters.
- US official said the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway, and that no one party controls the lanes or transits through them, while the official added that temporary routes will be without impediment.
- Oman and Iran reached an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, according to MS Now citing two Middle East diplomats, although the diplomats declined to describe the details of the temporary agreement or what issues remain unresolved.
- A strategic plan for managing the Strait of Hormuz would reportedly prohibit the passage of vessels belonging to the US, Israel and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, countries and individuals that caused damage to Iran would not receive permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf until compensation is paid, while heavy fines, including up to 20% of the value of goods, would be imposed on violators. The plan remains in the expert review stage, with parliament requesting experts submit suggestions to complete it.
- An informed source said that under the framework of negotiations between Iran and Oman, entry into the Strait of Hormuz is to be carried out through the northern corridor near the Iranian coast, while ships would exit through the southern corridor near the Oman coast. After the specified deadline, passage through both the northern and southern corridors would stop, with all traffic moving through the middle corridor, where inbound traffic would be managed by Iran and outbound traffic jointly managed by Iran and Oman.
- Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said to the US, “Acknowledge the facts and fulfil your commitments. We don’t need more theatre.”
- An Iranian journalist claimed reports of indirect US-Iran contacts through intermediaries were false, adding that Iran-Oman negotiations are bilateral and the draft understanding concerns transit through Hormuz rather than its reopening.
- Informed sources stated that the reason for the sound of two explosions heard in Qeshm was the confrontation with hostile enemy targets at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Tasnim.
- Explosions were reportedly heard in Marib, western Yemen, according to local sources.
- A Saudi source said reliable intelligence reports indicate coordination between Houthi and Iraqi militias and the Revolutionary Guard to attack the Kingdom, while they will not hesitate to take all necessary measures to deal with any aggression. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has observed drones and missiles being moved, suggesting potential coordinated attacks from the north and south that could target civilian and economic sites, including energy infrastructure, ports and airports.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were sold on Thursday with the Dow and Russell lagging, while S&P and Nasdaq saw mild losses, with the latter paring from its post-open lows. There were several key earnings last night and this morning, with Sandisk (SNDK -6.7%) and Western Digital (WDC -13%) under pressure after issuing weak guidance, while Datadog (DDOG) is down 19% after investors were left underwhelmed despite another earnings beat, wiping out all of the stock’s gains since the end of June. AppLovin (APP) also tumbled. Oil prices moved higher as tensions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia escalated, while the initial Iranian reporting on the proposed Iran-Oman framework suggested terms viewed as unfavourable to the US and its allies, raising doubts over the prospects of a final agreement and rebuilding some geopolitical risk premium in crude. Meanwhile, post-settlement Tasnim reported explosions heard in Qeshm Island were due to hostilities at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz – seeing crude move higher.
- SPX -0.18% at 7,710, NDX -0.39% at 29,373, DJI -0.85% at 53,890, RUT -0.58% at 3,002.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump signed an executive order imposing polysilicon tariffs, while the White House said tariffs on polysilicon and related products will begin at 00:01EDT on December 4th.
- Canadian PM Carney said he spoke with US President Trump last week and will speak with him again when necessary, while he added that Ottawa is standing up for Canadian businesses.
- Canadian minister responsible for Canada-US trade LeBlanc said Canadian trade negotiators held productive and detailed talks with USTR Greer in Washington on Thursday.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) said inflation is too high and the balance of risks is tilted towards higher price pressures, while he added it is crucial that monetary policy puts meaningful restraint on inflation. Musalem commented it is wrong to keep rate policy easy, hoping to foster higher productivity rates. Furthermore, he favoured raising rates at the recent FOMC meeting and sees a higher probability that inflation will remain above the target, as well as stated that gradual rate increases are less costly than more abrupt rate changes.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks ultimately traded mixed following the weak lead from Wall Street, while participants also digested a busy slate of earnings and the latest Chinese trade data.
- ASX 200 was little changed as strength in materials, energy and miners counterbalanced the underperformance in the financials and defensive sectors, while participants also reflected on the somewhat mixed trade data from Australia’s largest trading partner.
- Nikkei 225 declined amid a busy day of earnings and with risk sentiment not helped by disappointing Household Spending data, which showed a surprise contraction, while a government official noted that typhoons, cold weather and more rain led to reduced beverage and dining out expenses.
- KOSPI retreated with price action initially choppy amid some earnings releases and the mixed performances seen in South Korea’s tech heavyweights.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat with the Hong Kong benchmark in relatively flat territory, while the mainland outperformed after the latest Chinese trade data, which showed exports topped forecasts, and imports missed with a sharper-than-forecast deceleration, but continued to show double-digit percentage growth.
- US equity futures were range-bound after the weak performance stateside and ahead of key jobs data.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2%, after the cash market closed with gains of 0.4% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY took a breather after strengthening yesterday against all major peers as Treasury yields rose, with higher oil prices partially behind the move. Markets continued to await the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian reports of the Iran-Oman management deal for the Strait of Hormuz contained unfavourable terms towards the US and regional allies, while tensions between the Houthis and Saudis worsened. Elsewhere, FT reported that Fed Chair Warsh is willing to hike in September if inflation prints in the coming weeks are hot and markets increase expectations for such a move, while recent US data was encouraging but failed to garner any meaningful reaction as the all-important BLS jobs data approaches.
- EUR/USD lacked demand after it recently gave way to the firmer buck, and with the single currency not helped by disappointing EU retail sales data, while reports also noted that the ECB was blindsided by the US selling euros during last Friday’s historic joint intervention to support the yen, as the US only informed counterparts after the trade was executed.
- GBP/USD struggled for direction following its recent choppy performance, and in the absence of any pertinent catalysts.
- USD/JPY slightly eased back overnight after returning to above the 158.00 level and with some resistance seen around 158.57, which technicians flagged as a key fib level.
- Antipodeans were contained following yesterday’s retreat and amid the mixed risk appetite, while there was little reaction seen to the somewhat mixed Chinese trade data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7904 vs exp. 6.7548 (prev. 6.7895).
- Banxico kept rates on hold at 6.50%, as expected, with the decision unanimous, while it maintained guidance. Governing Board estimates that it will be appropriate to maintain the reference rate at its current level, while it added that the balance of risks for the trajectory of inflation within the forecast horizon remains biased to the upside. Furthermore, it stated that both headline and core inflation are still expected to decline throughout the forecast horizon, albeit more gradually than previously anticipated.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained lacklustre and lingered around the prior day’s trough after retreating as yields rose on higher oil prices, hawkish Fed reports, strong economic data and Alphabet’s bond sale, with participants now awaiting the upcoming key US jobs report.
- Bund futures retreated back beneath the 125.00 level as the rebound in oil stokes inflationary pressures, while German data is scheduled today, including the latest trade figures and industrial production.
- 10yr JGB futures followed suit to the declines in global peers, but had attempted to rebound early in the session following the weaker-than-expected household spending data from Japan.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures extended on the prior day’s over-4% rally as tensions between the Houthis and Saudis grew, while questions remained regarding the Iran-Oman deal as Iranian reporting on the text of the deal pointed to unfavourable terms for the US and its regional allies. Furthermore, informed sources noted that the sound of two explosions heard in Qeshm late on Thursday was due to confrontation with hostile targets at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.
- Spot gold gradually gained amid reports of the PBoC stockpiling more gold in Hong Kong, although the precious metal remains within the prior day’s parameters as participants await the key US jobs data.
- PBoC is stockpiling more gold in Hong Kong, in a move likely to support Hong Kong’s efforts to become a major bullion-trading hub, according to Bloomberg
- Copper futures kept afloat in sideways trade amid the mixed risk appetite in Asia.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was choppy and heads into European trade little changed above the USD 64,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan is to weigh changes to the proprietary trading cap as volume soars, with financial authorities to explore changing a rule that separates proprietary trading systems from full-fledged securities exchanges as the popularity of these alternative platforms grows, according to Nikkei.
- Japan ordered evacuations as Typhoon Dolphin nears and hundreds of flights were cancelled.
- Japanese Finance Ministry data showed Japan conducted yen buying intervention on a total of three days in April and May, while the largest daily intervention in the April-June quarter was JPY 6.28tln on April 30th.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Balance of Trade (USD)(Jul) 112.5B vs. Exp. 108.0B (Prev. 125.62B)
- Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Jul) 23.9% vs. Exp. 22.7% (Prev. 27%)
- Chinese Imports YY (USD) (Jul) 27.5% vs. Exp. 28.6% (Prev. 36%)
- Chinese Balance of Trade (CNY)(Jul) 767.1B vs. Exp. 740B (Prev. 859.1B)
- Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Jul) 17.8% (Prev. 20.8%)
- Chinese Imports YY (CNY)(Jul) 21.2% (Prev. 29.4%)
- Japanese Household Spending MM (Jun) -6.4% vs. Exp. -3.1% (Prev. 3.7%)
- Japanese Household Spending YY (Jun) -3.3% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -0.3%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US intelligence finds that Russian President Putin is seeking ways to test NATO resolve and could conduct a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years, according to WSJ.
OTHER
- US issued fresh Cuba-related sanctions.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US sale of euros to support the yen during the joint intervention late last week reportedly blindsided the ECB, with the US only informing European counterparts after the historic currency intervention took place, according to FT.
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA//JAPAN
3. CHINA
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
Meanwhile, In England… Idiocy Knows No Bounds
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
Mindless arson for online clout is torching farmers’ livelihoods across England. Hay and straw stacks – vital winter feed and hard-earned harvest – are being deliberately set alight in a suspected TikTok challenge that treats the countryside like disposable content.
West Mercia Police have circulated an urgent warning to farming groups after a string of overnight attacks.
The force stated: “Following a recent spate of overnight arson attacks on hay stacks in the north of England there appears to be a TikTok challenge to ‘set fire to as much stuff as possible.’ I know the farming community will be aware of the dangers of the dry weather but if it is possible to send out a message to all your members to be extra vigilant.”
Humberside Police are investigating six suspected deliberate bale fires reported overnight on 30 July across North Lincolnshire at East Butterwick, Messingham, Susworth and Kirton in Lindsey. Reports included suspicious dark-coloured vehicles and quad bike tracks near the stacks.
Around the same period, about 1,200 hay bales were destroyed in a major overnight fire near Saxondale Island close to Bingham in Nottinghamshire, treated as suspected arson. In Oxfordshire, a fire involving around 600 hay bales tore through stacks in the village of Hinton Waldrist on 20 July; Thames Valley Police continue to investigate.
Roughly 250 hay bales were deliberately set alight at Hackpen Hill near Swindon in Wiltshire. The blaze, confirmed by police as thought to have been started deliberately, took firefighters more than 28 hours to extinguish. Neighbouring farmer James Hussey described it as “quite a loss” for the owner.
Near South Milford a deliberate hay bale fire spread across 15 acres of fields. North Yorkshire Police stated: “Deliberately setting fire to hay bales not only causes significant financial loss to farmers but also presents a serious risk to life, property, livestock, and the wider countryside, particularly during periods of warm and dry weather.”
Jeremy Clarkson’s Diddly Squat Farm was also reported as targeted in a suspected arson attack involving hay bale silos in early May 2026.
Earlier in the season, in late June 2026, a Cambridgeshire farm near Peterborough experienced seven deliberate blazes over two nights that hit fields, hedgerows and a caravan.
Farmer Judith Jacobs said: “Sadly, we experienced similar incidents several times last summer, and this kind of behaviour is completely unacceptable.”
Dry conditions have left crops, grassland and stored forage highly vulnerable. Fire services and rural teams are urging farmers to review CCTV, report suspicious activity immediately, lock sheds and outbuildings, install security lighting where practical, and keep hay and straw stored well away from fuels, chemicals and machinery.
Farmers already battle weather, regulation and thin margins. Deliberate fires on top of that threaten winter feed stocks, next year’s harvest and the basic security of the food chain. Rural communities are left footing the cost while the perpetrators chase likes.
Expect the usual suspects to try reframing this as another “climate emergency.” Alarmists have a long record of blaming every dry-weather fire on global warming while ignoring clear evidence of deliberate human action.
This particular brand of idiocy – setting things alight for clicks – is not new and shows no sign of stopping. It keeps happening because the platforms reward it and the consequences rarely stick.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
UK
this is quite a story on DEI inside the UK
Cambridge’s Black Time-Travelling Professor (And His Many Superhuman Feats)
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Running a single marathon is a great achievement. Running 30 marathons is a spectacular feat. Running 30 marathons in 35 days is something only a world-class athlete could achieve. But running 30 marathons in 35 days, and running the final nine of those marathons with a broken leg – that’s an impossible feat that would require superhuman powers. But that is exactly what Jason Arday has claimed to achieve.
But that’s not all, Jason Arday’s incredible feats aren’t just limited to running nearly 240 miles on a fractured leg without medical intervention, he also claimed to have run 600 miles in six days on a treadmill (without any evidence), played both football and snooker at a professional level (a boast that was apparently taken out of context), raised over £5.5 million for charity (but can’t name a single donor), managed to go 15 years with a barely a wink of sleep, and even appeared on the famous television documentary series Seven Up! – which originally premiered a whole 21 years before he was even born.
This is the story of Cambridge University’s youngest-ever black professor, who was appointed as Professor of the Sociology of Education in 2023.
Jason Arday was born in 1985 on a council estate in Clapham, South London, to Ghanaian parents – a humble beginning for a man who would go on to achieve so much. But Jason would not only achieve great feats, but he would do so against all the odds, overcoming what some may have called ‘impossible barriers’ during his meteoric rise to greatness. At just three years of age, Jason was diagnosed with global developmental delay and autism spectrum disorder, leading medical experts and therapists to predict that he would require assisted living for the rest of his life. But this wasn’t the end of young Jason’s struggles – he was completely non-verbal throughout his early childhood and communicated entirely using sign language and as a result he didn’t learn to speak until he was 11 years-old. He credited his mother for helping him break through his silence by using music, rhythm, and song lyrics to connect him to language – the power of love and song set him on the road to such success. However, due to his late language and speech development, he did not learn to read or write until he was 18 years-old.
Allegedly.
And the word ‘allegedly’ should precede many of Jason’s achievements and boastful tales. It is a well-known medical and biological fact that learning to speak a language fluently after the age of 11 – if a person has been completely non-verbal since birth – is incredibly difficult due to a biological phenomenon known as the critical period hypothesis. Whilst it is not always absolutely impossible, it is one of the steepest challenges in cognitive science. This is because children’s brains form billions of neural connections specifically designed to map sounds to meaning, however, around the point when a child passes through puberty (roughly at the age of 11 to 13), the brain undergoes what is known as “synaptic pruning”. Neural connections that were not used – such as the neural pathways for processing and producing spoken speech – are cleared away or repurposed. Once this pruning happens, the brain loses the elasticity required to naturally absorb language structure.
But it’s not all just about neural pathways, when someone speaks, their brain must also simultaneously coordinate the lungs, vocal cords, tongue, teeth, and lips. This motor mapping is trained continuously through babbling and talking during infancy and childhood. A person who has been non-verbal for 11 years has not built these specific motor pathways, making the physical act of clear speech production highly uncoordinated and laborious. But miraculously, Jason beat all the odds, and at the last possible moment he learnt to speak. But the miracles just kept on coming and Jason managed to attend local schools in South London and eventually left secondary education with two GCSEs – one in Physical Education and one in Textiles. But despite the mountainous struggles that would have beaten most men, Jason was determined to go further still – and eventually, not even the boundaries of time itself would hold him back.
Determined to pursue sports and teaching, Jason then went to a local college to study for a BTEC diploma, which allowed him to bridge the gap into higher education. This was another major milestone for the young achiever – and this herculean feat was made even greater as Jason claimed that due to his late language development, he did not learn to read or write until he was 18 years-old. Some may scoff at Jason’s two GCSEs and BTEC diploma, but to have achieved these grades whilst not even being able to read and write proved that he was nothing short of a child prodigy. Jason then went on into higher education, and graduated from St Mary’s University in Twickenham in 2008 with a BA in Education Studies and Physical Education before serving as the university’s Student Union Athletics President for a year immediately following his graduation. For many, this would be the end of a long and arduous academic road, but to Jason, it was just the beginning.
Jason then went on to earn an MA in Education and Pedagogy from St Mary’s and later completed a PGCE at the Institute of Education to become a qualified school PE teacher. At this point, after achieving so much, and overcoming so many almost insurmountable hurdles, he could have entered a well-paid role in teaching. But Jason was still hungry for more, leading to his transitioning into the subject of Sociology of Education and going on to earn a Master of Education (MEd) followed by a PhD in Education from Liverpool John Moores University in 2015. This would have been incredible enough, but due to Jason’s humble background, he had no financial backing, and whilst passing through educational institutions at breakneck speed he was forced to work part-time retail shifts to fund his higher education tuition. Not only did Jason beat all the odds as a late starter, but he was both an academic genius and a hard worker.
But looking at Jason’s impressive academic résumé, it appears that mathematical qualifications are sadly absent, and that may be why things just don’t seem to add up. We are meant to believe that a boy who was completely non-verbal due to autism and global developmental delay until age 11 and who was unable to read or write until 18, then went on to earn a PhD by the age of 29. This means that in just 11 years Jason managed to learn basic literacy and catch up on all those years of missed schooling, complete an undergraduate degree (which typically takes 3 years), complete two separate Master’s degrees (typically taking 1-2 years each), complete a PGCE teacher training qualification (taking 1 year) and then write a 100,000-word PhD dissertation (taking typically 3-4 years). In just over a decade, Jason had not only learnt to read and write, but condensed 12 years of higher education into a near record-breaking period of time that would prove his hyper-accelerated cognitive processing abilities were second to none. And he did it all whilst working multiple jobs and without sleeping.
Jason’s story was remarkable – some may even go as far as to state that it was unbelievable – but it wouldn’t be long before educational institutions up and down the country would begin falling over themselves to offer him prestigious well-paid positions. Once he had completed his PhD, Jason secured his first major permanent academic post at the University of Roehampton, entering the institution directly as a Senior Lecturer in Physical Education, and it must be noted, this rapid entry without years of junior postdoctoral research was highly unusual, but surely by this point, extraordinary achievements were nothing more than everyday occurrences for Jason. Jason then went on to join Durham University’s Department of Sociology before being rapidly promoted into an executive role. Within just a year, Durham University had promoted Jason to Associate Professor. Alongside this, he was named the Deputy Executive Dean for People and Culture within the Faculty of Social Sciences and Health. Interestingly, and rather tellingly, this executive role placed him in charge of institutional diversity and inclusion initiatives.
But the meteoric rise of the non-verbal black youth from inner city London wasn’t over yet. In 2021 Jason stepped into a new role at the University of Glasgow, joining their School of Education to take the position of Chair in the subject of Sociology of Education – another milestone had been achieved, as he was now a full professor. And at the tender age of 35, this appointment officially made him one of the youngest full professors in the whole of the United Kingdom. It was at this point Jason’s numerous lofty achievements and incredible superhuman feats caught the attention of officials at Cambridge University – one of the most prestigious and influential institutions of higher education in human history had now noticed him and they wanted him on their team. And in March 2023, at just 37 years-old, Jason was appointed to the prestigious Professorial Chair of Sociology of Education at Cambridge’s Faculty of Education and was then concurrently elected as a Fellow of Jesus College. This appointment broke the record for the youngest Black professor in the university’s history. Jason was now at the very pinnacle of academic excellence; his fairytale story was now complete.
This is the point where the tale should come to an end, where things should be wrapped up nicely with a big red bow and where Jason receives the applause and recognition he deserves. And that would be how the story ends, if any of his achievements could actually be verified. But at this juncture some uncharitable folk might claim that Jason was just making it all up, and that the only reason anyone believed him is because lecturers and those with institutional power wanted to promote him in order to prove a very specific and racially charged point. It has been noted that people working within modern higher education, and specifically in institutions like Cambridge, Durham, and Glasgow are highly motivated to promote ‘diverse’ talent, especially if that ‘talent’ has a powerful, motivational and inspirational narrative attached. Jason was everything that liberal multiculturalists could have dreamed of, so much so, that university officials all over the UK were so eager to celebrate the story of a non-verbal black man that had beaten all the odds, that they skipped any of the standard, rigorous vetting of his academic work that one might usually expect.
That is exactly how Jason ended up in his position at Cambridge, not so much because of Jason’s myriad of self-professed achievements, but because the institution never checked any of his claims. And this isn’t mere conjecture: the University of Cambridge has now admitted that officials did not conduct an independent textual analysis when hiring Professor Jason Arday in 2023, instead, their vetting process relied heavily on ‘institutional trust’ and ‘reputation’ rather than any raw forensic auditing. In short, because Jason had already been vetted, hired, and promoted to senior positions by three other highly respected institutions (Roehampton, Durham, and Glasgow), Cambridge’s hiring panel assumed his foundational work was immaculate. Instead, Cambridge University’s appointment panel was deeply captivated by Jason’s unique, highly inspirational backstory and the focus of the hiring process was centred on his vision for the sociology department and his high-profile advocacy work surrounding diversity and inclusion, rather than a line-by-line verification of his past work. After all, who needs to know if a candidate can actually do the job they are being hired for when they fit the diversity profile so perfectly?
But unfortunately for Jason and his eager backers – Cambridge University, a number of other respected academic institutions and several publishers – this isn’t where the story ends, and Jason doesn’t get to leave the stage to rapturous applause.
Earlier this year, allegations would emerge that suggested that Jason’s unbelievable backstory and his near impossible achievements weren’t quite as real as some claimed.
An analysis of Jason’s 2015 PhD thesis, which was awarded by Liverpool John Moores University, revealed something truly shocking: the document contained 188 sentences that were identical or nearly identical to a thesis written by a student at Brunel University in 2009. But these issues weren’t just limited to Jason’s PhD, textual overlaps were then identified in several of Jason’s subsequent journal articles, leading to two separate journals issuing formal correction notes. In some papers, Jason allegedly recycled borrowed text and framed the lines as “direct quotes” from research subjects he claimed to have interviewed himself. Worse still, The Times later uncovered severe flaws in his references, including data discrepancies and the complete omission of a research participant who Jason previously claimed had taken their own life.
This would have been enough to sink any other high-profile academic. However, Jason’s run of incredible feats and unbelievable luck only continued. Cambridge University were so enamoured with Jason that when this new information came to light and accusations of plagiarism emerged, the university’s immediate institutional response was not to question Jason, but instead to defend him. Senior figures from Cambridge University completely dismissed the allegations, framing any criticism of their all-star black professor as a “vile campaign of bullying” directed at a vulnerable, dyslexic and autistic scholar. But as more and more allegations surfaced, Cambridge University officials changed their tactics, and attempted to distance themselves and the institution from the core issue by stating that investigating a PhD thesis is strictly the legal responsibility of the institution that awarded it – they were passing the responsibility back to Liverpool John Moores University.
And the response of those who should have checked his work in the first place was just as telling. Colleagues and peer-reviewers admitted to being hesitant to question Jason’s data or writing style out of fear of looking like they were attacking a vulnerable, autistic scholar – in short, no one wanted to question the black academic prodigy, they just wanted to put him on a pedestal to prove a point. But now, and rather ironically, all eyes were on Jason Arday – but not quite in the way that he wanted, as people were now increasingly focusing on the details of his work rather than his tall tales. As a result, independent researchers began feeding Jason’s published work into advanced anti-plagiarism software and the truth was plain for all to see. Several major academic publishers were forced to confront the reality that their peer-review processes had overlooked glaring and obvious anomalies. But the embarrassment wasn’t yet over, as Jason had published several highly regarded books with a company called Routledge, a leader in academic publishing. When complaints were first made regarding text-recycling and uncredited overlap in these texts, Routledge initially stood by their man. However, as the sheer volume of identical sentences became public, the publisher was humiliatingly forced to initiate a series of formal internal reviews.
Everything was coming crashing down – and there was only one thing Jason could do.
And if you thought that would be to admit to his alleged wrong doings, apologise and walk things back, you would be entirely incorrect. It was in fact time to double down, and invent another story to make everyone feel sorry for him in the hope that the whole incident would just go away and people would stop talking about his alleged plagiarism. And this is where Jason would reveal a final, previously hidden chapter to his remarkable story, it was time for him to tell the world that he had of course been the victim of racism. When Jason had first joined Cambridge University as a professor, he had been the victim of a hate campaign and all this talk of plagiarism and falsified superhuman feats of endurance risked stirring up another maelstrom of bigotry. But it wasn’t enough to claim that he had merely been the victim of hate, Jason had to go further: claiming that a severed pig’s head had been sent to him as part of a sudden escalation of abuse and threats that were specifically aimed at him due to his high-profile appointment as the university’s youngest black professor.
This incredible claim would surely silence all of his critics, as once the police reports and photos of this obscene crime were made public, no one would dare to question the black genius and his remarkable stories. There was only one small problem: Jason did not report the delivery of the pig’s head to the police when it allegedly took place. He claimed that he intercepted a large cardboard box at his parents’ house in South London, on opening the box, he discovered the pig’s head and did what anyone else would do – threw it straight into a wheelie bin and waited several months before calling the police. Well, at least he reported it to the police in the end, so a crime number would back up his harrowing tale. What’s more, Jason was so sure of his interaction with the police, that he went on to claim to reporters that when the police finally investigated the hateful act, they managed to trace the animal back to a local butcher who sold a “whole hog” on the morning that the severed head was delivered to his parents’ house.
However, unfortunately for Jason, the Metropolitan Police keep records of crimes that are reported, and they revealed that after an extensive search, there was no evidence whatsoever of any such report or subsequent investigation. This surely must have been the result of institutional racism within the Met Police and officers must have destroyed all evidence of the report. But at least Jason could still rely on the butcher to confirm the details of this gruesome hate crime. Yet in a final bizarre twist, reporters from The Guardian (who were no doubt driven by a desperate attempt to prove Jason’s story to be true) visited the specific South London butcher that Jason himself had named as the providers of the hog. However, the staff at the shop stated that no police officers had ever come in to question them about a pig’s head, dryly noting, “That’s the kind of thing we’d remember.” Indeed, who could forget such a thing?
One would expect that opening a large parcel only to discover a severed pig’s head nestled within would be rather unforgettable – but in the case of Jason, this may have been just another one of many rather extraordinary occurrences. But as we live in a technological wonderland where everyone has a telephone in their back pocket featuring a high-resolution camera, this kind of extraordinary occurrence would surely result in a photograph being taken. However strangely, Jason did not even take a single picture of the offending item before hurling it into a wheelie bin and according to the police – never even reporting the incident. Strange behaviour for a man of such incredible academic stature, after all, a man who had mastered time travel could surely operate a simple device like a smartphone. It seems that just as with Jason’s academic work, accurate citations were sadly lacking. But the embarrassment was not over yet, as Jason’s friends and colleagues at Cambridge, who were interviewed by the press, all claim he never even mentioned the incident to them. It’s almost as if it never even happened.
Backed into a corner, Jason was faced with only one final option: it was time to go nuclear; it was time for him to scream the word ‘racism’ as loudly as he could and then wait for the cavalry. This is exactly what he did, and he got exactly the result he had hoped for, as more than 12,000 people – including Green Party leader Zack Polanski, at least five Labour MPs and a gaggle of Cambridge academics all signed a petition set up by the Good Law Project supporting him. What’s more, fellow black academics were up in arms about his treatment, with Kehinde Andrews, professor of Black Studies at Birmingham City University, bellowing profusely that Jason was a good boy and he didn’t do anything wrong. In fact, according to Kehinde, poor Jason was merely the victim of a “smear campaign” that was “as predictable as it is baseless”. But it wasn’t just black academics who were angered, white professors also fell over themselves to come to Jason’s defence, with Alan Lester, a University of Sussex Geography professor who specialises in colonialism, calling the entire saga a “non-story”.
But the best was yet to come.
Jewish cognitive neuroscientist, Fellow of Trinity College and director of Cambridge University’s Autism Research Centre – Sir Simon Baron-Cohen – raised important concerns about the impact that the media coverage was having on Jason and his mental health. As Jason had been through so much, and achieved so many great feats, Simon Baron-Cohen wanted everyone to just shut up and stop talking about the issue, stating: “We should of course always investigate plagiarism to protect academic standards; however, I cannot stand by and watch when an autistic man is on the ground and the kicking continues. This is relentless bullying of a vulnerable autistic man and raises safe-guarding issues. It’s time to stop.” According to Baron-Cohen, this wasn’t about truth, academic integrity or standards in higher education, this was now a ‘safeguarding issue’ and what’s more, it was ‘bullying’.
If Jason Arday had been white, it would have undoubtedly been the case that he would have either resigned, or been forced out of his lucrative position. However, at the time of writing, Cambridge University’s leadership is actively shielding him from any scrutiny, citing a prior institutional clearance. An academic misconduct panel at Liverpool John Moores University – which awarded Jason his PhD – reviewed the 188 copied sentences in March 2026 and cleared him of intentional misconduct, ruling the overlaps were an “honest and reasonable error” caused by a depleted student supervision team. They too wanted the world to know: Jason was indeed a good boy who didn’t do anything wrong and that the copied sentences weren’t his fault. Cambridge have now officially declared Jason the victim of a “vile campaign to undermine his credibility” driven by right-wing media outlets and their Faculty of Education is actively providing him with safety infrastructure, including panic alarms and specialist staff to security-screen his mail – who are no doubt on high-alert for severed animal heads. What’s more, despite everything that has happened, the commercial book publishers he has deals with have also confirmed they are still proceeding with his upcoming titles as planned.
[Update: Arday has resigned “with immediate effect”, the university said it had launched an investigation into Professor Jason Arday “following new information” about his “academic qualifications and honorary appointments”.
He said his resignation should not “be interpreted as a loss of faith in scholarship or in the values that first brought me to Cambridge. Nor should it be mistaken for an acceptance of the narratives that have surrounded me.”
Arday said “this is not the end of my work” and that he needed “time to heal”.]
But even now, with all these facts, assertions and allegations out in the wild, the public isn’t left with many answers – only more questions.
Was Jason Arday really non-verbal until 11 years of age? Did he miraculously learn to speak at the very last minute with the help of music? Could he really not read and write until the age of 18? If he could not read and write until 18, how on earth did he get two GCSEs and a BTEC diploma? Some of what we have been told is undoubtedly true – he did indeed go to several major universities – but that raises even more questions. How could anyone even apply to a university if they were still learning to read and write? And why would a university accept a student who couldn’t read or write properly? And if he did learn to read and write at the age of 18, how did he compress such a large amount of learning into a single year of work? So many questions, and these questions are all about events and achievements that allegedly took place before Jason even got to university and before he allegedly began copying the work of others.
But then there are a string of pressing questions about his time in higher education.
Why didn’t those checking his work go over it properly? How did Jason manage to get his work through the peer review process, and who were the peers who reviewed it? What work did he present when attending interviews for lucrative and prestigious positions, and how do institutions decide whether a candidate is suitable for the role?
There are people out there who can answer these questions, but they never will. In fact, the only way any of this could be verified is if we had a time machine, and there’s only one person in this whole sorry tale who claims to have broken the laws of physics and travelled back through time – and conveniently, that is of course Jason. Which all leads to only one conclusion: a young black man who was woefully underqualified ended up being ushered through educational institutions and was given a pass at every level in order to unfairly elevate him in a blatant attempt to prove a political point. Jason Arday is the ultimate token black academic, and universities built him up because of that.
And that’s really the point; this isn’t just a story about a silly man with a big mouth and an overactive imagination. This story is really about the fact that one particular silly man with a big mouth and an overactive imagination ended up as a Cambridge University Professor with a number of academic book deals. And the reason he ended up in that position is simple: it wasn’t because of his incredible achievements; it was because of his ethnic background and the sob story he sold to a panel who were no doubt overwhelmingly made up of white liberals. One of the supposed strengths of the academic system is that it is meant to have rigorous checks in place to ensure those who are underqualified do not get into positions of power or authority, and these checks and balances are not only there to ensure fairness and to guarantee that only the best of the best take the top positions in leading universities, but also to ensure that at the heart of academia is a system of structured meritocracy. This meritocracy is not only to ensure the cream rises to the top, but to create a constant upward cycle that leads to ever-increasing standards and that academic boundaries are constantly tested and pushed. But this all goes out the window if a candidate is from an ethnic minority background.
The fact that Jason Arday rose to such a position is a damning indictment of the current state of academic institutions in Britain. But this story also illustrates another important issue – this wasn’t a one-off failing involving a single university and a small number of officials, but a national systemic failing involving dozens of people at multiple top-tier universities and publishing houses. It is clear, these institutions have given up on the ideals of meritocracy and excellence, and have instead elevated diversity, equity and inclusion as the most important virtues in modern education. This is not only unfair to better and more qualified candidates who have genuinely worked harder and deserve the job in question, but it also inevitably leads to a decline in the overall quality of an institution. But the damage done is not just limited to the institution in question, but is part of a wider process of societal and civilisational decline. What’s more, it is a sign that elite institutions are no longer dominated by scholars who strive for knowledge and truth, but instead are controlled by those who have an almost religious belief in multiculturalism and diversity.
This religious belief is so great, that when a man like Jason Arday walks into an institution he isn’t just seen as a poster boy, but almost as a form of messiah who can do no wrong and should face no criticism. As such, those who are so eager to place him on a pedestal will not even question the incredible feats he boasts of – no matter how outlandish they are. Instead, officials within elite institutions will parrot the wild boasts of men like Jason Arday, happily spreading the word of the great miracles performed by their latest diversity hire. Officials at Cambridge University seem so in love with the idea of Jason that they appear to be one step away from claiming that after he ran his 35 marathons (9 of which were achieved on a broken leg) he then proceeded to walk on water and feed the entire university with one mackerel and a single loaf of sugar bread. Such is the unquestioning and almost religious belief in Jason Arday, that even now, the university stands by him and he will remain as one of the best paid and most highly revered published academics in Britain.
To Britain’s elite educational institutions, Jason Arday’s improbable tales of being non-verbal at 11, running marathons on a broken leg and appearing on a television show that premiered 21 years before he was born weren’t red flags – they were integral reasons as to why they embraced him and put him on a pedestal. And that leads to one final point that must be made clear – an uncomfortable issue that many won’t wish to accept. The case of Jason Arday is absolute proof that the ‘woke’ agenda and shibboleths of ‘diversity, equity and inclusion’ are certainly not a thing of the past – in fact they are very much alive and well.
The idea spread by some within the media and in online circles that ‘common sense’ has returned and ‘woke’ politics was just a brief period of social madness is nothing more than a lie that is eagerly accepted and parroted by those who wish to believe they are winning. The notion that woke politics is a ‘thing of the past’ is as realistic as the story of a man running nine marathons on a broken leg – and anyone that chooses to believe either of those assertions is sadly only fooling themselves.
end
EUROPE: HUGE PROBLEMS HERE:DIESEL AND NATURAL GAS:
Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 04:15 AM
Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, began the week by telling Bloomberg TV that the global diesel-supply crunch is “what keeps her up at night.” She followed up Wednesday with a client note warning that European natural gas storage levels are also lagging the seasonal average ahead of the winter heating period.
Benchmark TTF futures have fallen 7% this week to about 54 euros per megawatt-hour, but Dart maintained her 60-euro balance-of-third-quarter forecast. She noted that Northwest European LNG imports missed July expectations by 2.1 million tons on an annualized basis, leaving storage just 43% full at month-end versus the 45.5% projected.
The latest Bloomberg data shows that Europe’s NatGas storage is about 57.87% full, roughly 18 percentage points below the 2009–25 average.
“Specifically, the July miss in European LNG imports (and the resulting miss in storage fill) vs our expectations suggest that European gas storage still has some catching up to do, while LNG supply availability remains uncertain,” Dart wrote in the note.
Dart continued, emphasizing that Europe must accelerate NatGas injections to reach her 67% storage target by the end of October. Higher potential Qatari exports, weaker Asian spot demand and reduced Egyptian imports could free additional cargoes for Europe, though an early drop in TTF prices risks redirecting LNG back toward Asia.
Dart warned that if Gulf energy exports recover only gradually, December TTF prices may need to exceed 100 euros to curb Asian demand. A faster reopening of the Hormuz maritime chokepoint could push prices to 40 euros.
Dart continued:
On net, we still see risks to our winter TTF price forecast skewed to the upside. In a scenario where Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027, we estimate that Dec26 TTF would likely need to move above 100 EUR/MWh, 110% above our 50 EUR/MWh base case, to significantly discourage Asia LNG demand. In contrast, we estimate that a faster-than-expected ramp of Hormuz flows would allow TTF to sell off back in line with the coal-to-gas switching threshold of 40 EUR/MWh, 20% below our current Dec26 TTF price base case.
Putting it all together, if disruptions in the Hormuz persist, Europe could enter winter with NatGas and diesel inventories well below seasonal norms, setting the stage for another surge in energy prices.
Professional subscribers can read more NatGas notes at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
END
NATO/UKRAINE/RUSSIA
“Promises Are Fairy Tales”: NATO Will Not Accept Ukraine
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Lucas Leiroz de Almeida via GlobalResearch.ca,
Apparently, the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is increasingly being dismissed as unrealistic. Even the regime’s most hardline officials seem to have lost hope regarding Kiev’s accession to the Western military alliance, considering that such a move does not serve NATO’s current strategic interests.
In a recent statement, Valery Zaluzhny – Ukraine’s current ambassador to the UK, former head of the country’s armed forces, now widely considered Zelensky’s top rival – asserted that Kiev will never join the Atlantic defense bloc. According to him, promises of membership are merely “fairy tales” that do not reflect reality.
Zaluzhny stated that he is very familiar with NATO’s internal structures and understands how the bloc actually operates. According to him, promises regarding Ukraine’s entry into the bloc are nothing new. Over the course of 12 years working alongside alliance officials, Zaluzhny says he constantly heard such promises, yet saw no particular reason to believe they would materialize now.
While lamenting that the alliance will never truly accept Ukraine as a member, Zaluzhny criticizes the current situation of the Western bloc, asserting that NATO’s military doctrine is outdated, making the alliance strategically inferior to Russia. Zaluzhny believes it is urgent for NATO to undergo comprehensive military reform and revise its doctrine to align with contemporary realities. He believes Ukraine could contribute to this process but regrets that this will not be possible, given the alliance’s refusal to accept Ukraine as a member.
“I know NATO very well (…) or about 12 years, I personally worked to ensure that we adopted NATO standards, and every year I listened to fairy tales that we were about to join. Unfortunately, we will never join it (…) NATO will most likely remain in its current form and will spend another 12 years – just as Ukraine did – transitioning to the standards required to reach even half the level of the Russian Federation,” he said.
Zaluzhny, however, does not entirely rule out the possibility of Ukraine joining a Western military organization. While acknowledging NATO’s lack of interest in admitting Ukraine, he alleges that his country could eventually join a “European military security bloc.” This would only be possible, however, if EU nations and the UK agreed to move forward with creating a regional military alliance outside the NATO umbrella – something many analysts doubt will happen, given American influence over European decision-making.
In fact, there are some interesting points in Zaluzhny’s statement. He is correct in stating that Ukraine will never be accepted into NATO. The Kiev regime plays a very specific role in NATO’s war plans – precisely that of a proxy or external ally. NATO cannot include Ukraine as a member, as doing so would force the alliance to intervene directly in a war against Russia, which would obviously be a disaster, possibly even nuclear. In this sense, Ukraine’s role as a military proxy is only viable as long as the country remains outside the Western defense bloc.
He is also right to criticize NATO’s outdated strategy regarding Russia. In fact, NATO decision-makers have never moved beyond the military doctrines of the last century. This has been clearly reflected in the current disastrous anti-Russian military campaign, in which the Kiev regime, guided by NATO, is suffering substantial losses.
Zaluzhny, however, fails to point out how Ukraine is ignoring its own military tradition on the battlefield in favor of using precisely the same outdated NATO concepts. The military doctrine employed by Ukraine is not autonomous. Ukraine shares a military history with Russia rooted in their Soviet and imperial pasts. If the Ukrainians were following their own military doctrine, they would be using tactics similar to Russia’s -focused on preserving soldiers’ lives rather than conducting large-scale direct combat campaigns.
However, the Ukrainian armed forces follow NATO orders, which is why they use outdated warfare techniques unsuited to the reality of contemporary combat -characterized by high technology and the massive use of drones. So, in practice, Ukraine would have nothing to add to NATO regarding military doctrine, since the country already adopted NATO’s own doctrine when it agreed to act as a proxy.
A common argument used by proponents of Ukrainian accession is that the country could contribute to NATO with its real combat experience. In fact, the country has been facing Russia in a large-scale conflict for four years, gaining combat experience that no Western alliance nation possesses. The problem, however, is determining how much of the Ukrainian military apparatus will remain once the conflict ends. The regime has already lost nearly its entire original military contingent and is now relying on forced mobilization to keep its forces active. In this scenario, that experience may count for little, given that the soldiers involved in combat are mostly untrained men sent to certain death on the front lines.
If NATO didn’t want Ukraine before – when it had the second-largest army in Europe – it certainly won’t accept it now, when it is a failed state fighting with the help of its civilians snatched off the streets. The Ukrainian dream of membership seems increasingly unattainable.
END
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
IRAN/ISRAEL /USA/YEMEN
IRGC Strikes ‘Hostile Targets’ In Hormuz As Iran Declares Oman Deal Bans US Vessels From Strait
Thursday, Aug 06, 2026 – 03:59 PM
Summary
- Explosions heard near Qeshm island – Iran says it struck ‘hostile targets’.
- Iran parliament reviews draft Hormuz plan banning US- and Israel-linked vessels, oil rises
- Houthis intensify attacks on Saudi oil shipping in the Red Sea.
- Yemen fighting escalates amid reports of major casualties.
- Iran-Oman talks continue as US backs diplomatic solution, searches for offramp.
Iran Struck ‘Hostile Targets’ in Strait of Hormuz: Fars
After explosions were heard on Qeshm island, near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media is saying that Iranian forces attacked and struck ‘hostile targets’ – though the event still remains shrouded in mystery and few details were offered. The US side has also not confirmed anything, and this could also be the result of drone activity.
Iran remains defiant, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian having newly asserted in an interview, “Our enemies expected the country to collapse due to the pressures they have exerted.“ He added that these pressures have “reached their maximum”. Oil jumped again on the reports of attacks in the Hormuz Strait area:
MS Now continues to report on the ‘agreed upon’ Iran-Oman deal for Hormuz transit:
Oman on Thursday agreed to the framework of a deal with Iran to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the global crude oil export route that Washington and Tehran have been wrestling to control since the war began, two Middle East diplomats with knowledge of the negotiations told MS NOW.
The diplomats declined to describe the details of the temporary agreement or what issues remain unresolved. But an Iranian government official linked to the deal told MS NOW on Thursday morning that it will establish new shipping routes by allowing commercial vessels to enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exit through a route controlled by Oman.
This also as Iranian leaders continue to taunt Washington, with fresh messages such as the following from the country’s influential parliament speaker:
Deal Details: US-Israeli vessels Banned from Hormuz (Fars)
Iranian state media (Fars) has issued details of the Iran-Omani draft plan for transit rules through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. The country’s parliament is said to currently be reviewing it, while Tehran still insists that the US has been sidelined, saying that the Oman-Iran contacts are bilateral.
As cited in Bloomberg from state media, key proposals include:
- Ban vessels linked to the U.S., Israel, and other hostile states
- Block military and civilian cargo tied to Israel
- Restrict ships linked to actions against the “Axis of Resistance”
- Deny passage to parties owing compensation to Iran
- Impose fines of up to 20% of cargo value for violations
The first note about banning US-linked vessels could alone serve to restart the war. The White House has appeared to genuinely be searching for an exit strategy, but this may be too hard a pill to swallow, if accurate.
Fars has spelled out that “The passage of vessels belonging to the US, the Israelis, and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited.” Below are is the fuller outline of the proposed plan as featured by Fars [machine translation]:
- The passage of vessels belonging to the United States, Israelis and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited.
- Ships related to Israel, whether military or civilian, will not have the right to transit through this area.
- Vessels or cargoes that play a role in actions against the Resistance Front will also be subject to the ban.
- Countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran will not receive permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf until compensation is paid.
- Heavy fines, including up to 20% of the value of the goods, will be imposed on violators. The cargo is anticipated.
- The government will be required, in cooperation with the armed forces, to assume responsibilities such as guiding navigation, monitoring vessel traffic, and protecting the security and environment of the Persian Gulf.
- This plan is still in the expert review stage, and the parliament has asked experts to submit their suggestions for completing it.
Oil spikes on the headlines of a very clearly ‘Iran-favorable’ ‘deal’ – which Washington is unlikely to simply accept.
Does this portend a return to active conflict?
Yemeni ‘Blockade for Blockade’ Could Threaten Delicate Hormuz Negotiations
Yesterday witnessed at least the eighth Saudi oil tanker attacked by the Houthis since the maritime blockade began on July 22, which is being followed by reports the Yemeni rebel group backed by Iran could be preparing for all-out war with Saudi Arabia.
The group struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Wednesday and coupled the action with a threat to intensify attacks in order to close “all access routes” to Saudi oil shipments. Military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree confirmed that ballistic missiles were launched at a Saudi tanker called Wafa near the Saudi port city of Yanbu.
A second oil tanker identified as Daisy was subsequently hit in the Gulf of Aden with a ballistic missile and “forced to turn back” – the spokesman said in a social media post. The Houthis are dubbing it a “blockade for blockade” strategy.
Large New Saudi-Backed Operation?
But it seems the Saudis aren’t ready to take this laying down, even if the ratcheting Red Sea region conflict threatens fragile Oman-sponsored talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as on Thursday its proxy the Yemeni Armed Forces – representing the official government whose seat is in Aden in the south – announced preparations for a large new military operation.
This as Al Arabiya reports a fresh outbreak of ground fighting, in a renewal and intensification of the civil war that goes back to at least 2015 (and has an international proxy war aspect to it). The Arab publication says that a Houthi attack killed 45 government forces in Hadramawt and Marib in Yemen, areas which also happen to be home to the vast majority of the country’s oil and gas fields.
Separately Al Jazeera describes of the same event:
The Yemeni Emergency Forces of the internationally-recognised government, have said that there have been material and human losses following attacks on its camps.
Several causalities have been reported after a suspected Houthi rocket and drone attack targeted bases hosting the forces in Marib and Hadramaut.
So now it seems that even if a grand Hormuz deal to reopen energy transit can be pulled off with some level of sticking power, there will have to be a separate ceasefire to contain the Yemen and Bab al-Mandab Strait crisis.
To some degree, the Houthi closure of the Red Sea to Saudi shipping represents a good cop, bad cop approach to the United States and its Gulf allies. It is a way for Tehran to still maintain some serious tangential leverage over global energy, even as ships in Hormuz could finally get moving again.
END
Exit Narrative Grows: Bessent Says New Deal & Ceasefire Will Open Hormuz ‘Today Or Tomorrow’
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 12:40 PM
Summary
- Bessent: Hormuz could reopen under a 30-60 day ceasefire as soon as “today or tomorrow.”
- Iran asserts that US & Israeli vessels remain barred until sanctions are lifted and compensation is paid.
- Trump says the conflict could “end pretty soon,” signaling a possible final US exit.
- Iran remains defiant, pointing out it still has the leverage & can threaten Hormuz.
- However, the deal could reopen oil flows while strengthening Iran’s control over the strait.
* * *
Bessent: Today or Tomorrow the Strait will be Open; Iran Signals ‘Compensation’
Iran has announced that under the ‘finalized’ Oman-Iran scheme and ‘deal’ for management of the Hormuz Strait that “enemy countries” (read: US and Israel) may only transit the waterway after lifting sanctions and paying compensation for the war.
While this was not issued by the Foreign Ministry or top leadership per se, it does appear to represent Tehran’s overall position, after on Thursday it first declared that US and Israeli-linked ships will not be allowed Hormuz transit under the Oman plan:
Tehran Mayor says Passing through the Strait of Hormuz is subject to the lifting of sanctions and the payment of compensation:
“The countries that have attacked Iran will not have the right to use this strait until compensation is paid. Governments that freeze Iranian assets or continue to impose sanctions and threaten the nation will be deprived of this strategic boon.”
While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has appeared to back the Omani plan to reopen the strait, the US State Department has also newly warned on Friday that more ‘decisive action’ will be taken to cut off sources of Iran’s funding. Bessent has newly stated that…
I think shortly, maybe even today, tomorrow, we are going to see an agreement, a 30- to 60-day ceasefire, and the Strait will be open.
This is somewhat surprising, but as we described below, it seems a final Washington exit is indeed in motion, even if it leaves Iran with greater leverage in the region. Like Trump’s latest comments Thursday night, Bessent seems in ‘mission accomplished’ mode with this newly published interview…
This really does sound like ‘it’s finally over’ talk…
White House Largely Quiet on Iran-Oman Deal to Manage the Strait
President Trump’s latest Iran comments came Thursday night, after a prior day wherein Iran and Oman unveiled their ‘finalized’ Hormuz management scheme, which most notably includes a ban on all US and Israeli vessels in the energy transit waterway.
As we reviewed earlier, the White House has appeared to genuinely be searching for an exit strategy, but this stipulation alone may be too hard a pill for Trump to swallow, if accurate – given that it obviously leaves Iran in de facto control of the strait. Many pundits have pointed out it even leaves Iran with more leverage and power in the region than before the launch of Operation Epic Fury.
But this is why Trump’s comments to reporters in the Oval Office Thursday evening are surprising, given that instead of reacting angrily and outright condemning the Iran-Oman plan, his reaction was somewhat muted and meager. Doves who see this war as disastrous and hope for quick exit will welcome the development.
Trump: Going to End Pretty Soon
“I think it’s going to end pretty soon. I don’t think they can go much longer,“ the president said, while leaving his meaning ambiguous. Asserting once again that the US is involved in negotiations with Tehran (something the Iranians have been vehemently denying all along), Trump added that “I think we’re doing fine.”
The only thing Trump truly got angry about Thursday was related to the domestic side of the conflict, after US major media published several reports saying the Pentagon is perilously low on missiles and interceptors, which have been drained after nearly six months of war. He blasted ‘treasonous’ ‘fake reporting’ and even threatened to jail ‘leakers’ over the reports (the inherent contradiction says a lot here).
But again, Trump’s penchant for raging against ‘dishonest’ and ‘evil’ Iranian leaders has been curiously absent over the last several days as the US bombs have fallen silent – after he called off planned ‘harder’ strikes over the weekend (or the last big TACO moment, among many prior).
This relative quiet at the White House comes even after Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf openly mocked the United States and Trump’s theatrics and constant changes of course on X. He wrote Thursday:
“Massive attack coming… wait, never mind, they want to negotiate.” That’s theater diplomacy on loop. Using bullying + broken promises + fake news as leverage is a failed strategy. Acknowledge the facts and fulfill your commitments. We don’t need more theater.
All of this change in Washington tone and posture suggests this could finally be the moment for a true offramp, as the US faces a ‘go big or get out’ realization, and as the prospect of slogging through months more of a developing quagmire becomes too politically and economically costly. This is potentially the declare ‘victory’ and get out moment. As former Congressman Ron Paul has put it: Just Walk Away!
SAUDI ARABIA//IRAQI MILITIAS (IRAN BASED)/HOUTHIS
Saudi Arabia expects coordinated attacks by Houthis, Iraqi militias, official says
Saudi Arabia had also observed drones and missiles being moved, suggesting coordinated operations from both directions, the official said.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman speaks during the Gulf Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia(photo credit: VIA REUTERS)ByREUTERSAUGUST 7, 2026 00:50Updated: AUGUST 7, 2026 00:53
Saudi Arabia expects imminent coordinated attacks from the north and south by Iraqi militias and Yemen’s Houthis under the supervision of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a senior Saudi official said on Thursday.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said intelligence reports from Saudi Arabia, the United States and other regional countries indicated civilian and economic sites could be targeted, including energy infrastructure, ports and airports.
Saudi Arabia had also observed drones and missiles being moved, suggesting coordinated operations from both directions, the official said.
The official said the reported threats were particularly alarming as Riyadh continued to pursue de-escalation and a negotiated settlement, adding that contacts with all parties, including Iran, and mediation efforts appeared to be moving “in the right direction.” The official said the planned attacks could be intended to disrupt those diplomatic efforts.
Saudi-Houthi conflict has developed in past weeks
The official said Saudi-US cooperation remained “very high” at all levels, including operationally with US Central Command (CENTCOM), and said Saudi Arabia was prepared to take all necessary measures to respond to any aggression.
On July 29, Saudi Arabia said it carried out strikes with CENTCOM against Iran-backed groups in Iraq after blaming them for drone attacks on its oil facilities. Iraqi militias said they would respond to the Saudi strikes.
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have escalated in recent weeks after the Iran-aligned group imposed what it describes as a naval blockade on the kingdom in the Red Sea and claimed a series of attacks on Saudi shipping and military targets. Saudi Arabia has responded to the recent Houthi attacks with strikes on military sites in Yemen.
END
SAUDI ARABIA/TURKEY/PAKISTAN
they are all going against Iran now:
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan sign major defense pact amid Iran tensions
The agreement says that any armed attack on any one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack against them all, the statement from the ministry said.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif gather to sign a joint defense agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, August 7, 2026.(photo credit: Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Turkish Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS)
Which three powers are signing a major defense deal?›What is the Strait of Hormuz?›
Which leader arrived early with Pakistan’s army chief?›What unique strategic capability does Pakistan bring to this pact?›
ByELI LEON, REUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 7, 2026 11:25Updated: AUGUST 7, 2026 14:52
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a joint defence agreement on Friday, Pakistan’s foreign ministry said, as the three countries sought to deepen security cooperation amid heightened military tensions and conflicts in the Middle East.
The agreement says that any armed attack on any one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack against them all, the statement from the ministry said.
END
ISRAEL TBN
HEZBOLLAH
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE//serbia
Zelensky To Make First-Ever Visit To Serbia, In Symbolic ‘Slap In The Face’ For Russia
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Serbia is set to host Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a major first of the war which could set off serious diplomatic tensions with Russia, a longtime Serbian ally and ‘friend’.
Zelensky will arrive on this first-ever trip on Saturday, August 8, according to Ukrainian officials, despite that Serbia – as a Slavic and Orthodox Christian country – has historically maintained warm ties with Moscow.
But Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has been a leader who has put a little distance between himself in Russia, for example skipping this year’s Victory Day Parade in Moscow. He’s also been accused of allowing Serbian arms to go to Ukraine, which he’s denied.
“I believe we will discuss how and in what ways we can help each other on this issue (EU integration, ed.) and, if possible, learn something from one another,” Vučić said of the upcoming visit.
“That also includes our cooperation in culture, sports, and everything else,” the president added. Regional media indicated the two leaders are expected to address Ukraine’s move toward EU membership, energy cooperation, as well as economic ties.
Zelensky is likely to lobby the Serbian government to take a tougher stance on Russia, for example by joining Western sanctions on Moscow.
President Vučić has consistently resisted calls to join anti-Russian international sanctions, however, stressing that the country’s position on the matter will remain unchanged.
But Serbia is still hugely dependent on Russian energy, and just a week ago it was reported that—
Serbia secured another sanctions waiver from the United States for its Russian-owned oil company NIS, energy minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic said on Friday, allowing the firm that supplies most of the country’s fuel demand to continue importing crude oil until August 28.
The waiver granted by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) gives NIS, which operates Serbia’s only oil refinery, more time while Hungary’s oil and gas firm MOL negotiates the purchase of the Russian majority stake in the company.
As for Zelensky’s state visit, the Kremlin is surely not pleased, given the symbolic nature of Belgrade opening up to Ukraine in essence.
Serbia has stood accused of becoming a key element in NATO’s Balkan arms pipeline of secretive transfers…
An unnamed senior Ukrainian official made no secret of Zelensky’s intent is. “We need to pull the Serbs away from Russia’s side,“ the official said, calling the unprecedented visit to Belgrade a “slap in the face for the Russians.“
end
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
ROBERT H…
The reality of a changing world of hegemony
It is a fact that both Russia and China are helping Iran, albeit in different ways.
For some time Iran has gained access to CHina’s satellites for navigation of their missiles. This is why America cannot interfere with missile guidance as these missiles no longer use GPS.
Unipolar Hegemony is dead and reality is shaped by decades of neglect and false narratives conditioned by wanton use of Reserve Currency as a tool of hegemony control. Without adequate means to project strength America will find itself faced with countries who seek their own standing freed from such influence. And perhaps no better will be China in time. However, when there is vacuum of power projection that void is often filled by those parties capable of seizing advantage for their own gain in a changed world.
And talk of escalation to a nuclear threshold is silly. America would find itself faced with a world that turn its’ back upon overnight. Apart from what that might invite from other Actors who would seize upon such an error. Israel is faced with a new reality that likely was not foreseen before this started.
GLOBAL ISSUES//food
Global Food Prices Hit Three-Year High As War, Chokepoint Chaos And El Nino Spark Perfect Storm
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 07:45 AM
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index climbed to a three-year high in July, extending its upward trajectory as conflicts across Eurasia (the Black Sea and the Hormuz chokepoint) disrupt critical trade routes and mounting El Niño risks threaten global harvests.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 131.09 last month, up .6% from the previous month, led by gains in grain, sugar, and vegetable oils.
Wheat surged 5.8% during the month to a two-year high, while corn climbed 3.6%. Vegetable oil prices reached their highest since June 2022, while meat and dairy prices declined, according to the FAO.
Fueling the price surge is the widening Russia-Ukraine war in the Black Sea, where attacks are increasing and threaten critical bulk-shipping corridors. Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are also pushing food prices higher by raising energy, fertilizer, and transportation costs. Layered on top of all this are deteriorating crop conditions in major growing regions across the world as El Niño risks mount, a threat that has been flagged for many months.
“Chances of a very strong El Niño are rising. Risks are concentrated in select EMs, with inflationary and fiscal pressures likely to outweigh growth risks. We view El Niño as a key sovereign credit risk, particularly for countries with weak fiscal buffers,” Morgan Stanley analyst Emma Cerda wrote in a recent note.
Earlier this week, UBS analyst Sreedhar Mahamkali identified five long-term forces likely to keep global food inflation “structurally higher” above its pre-pandemic average of about 2.5%.
“While food inflation globally has fallen from the COVID peak, a new debate is emerging: is the c2.5% LT average obsolete?” the London-based managing director and equity-research analyst said.
Mahamkali’s first and most important long-term driver of elevated food prices is that “climate risk is global,” and the number of institutional desks warning about El Niño is certainly on the rise. Read the full report here.
Perhaps Bank of America analyst Robert Ohmes will be proven right about his warning in mid-June (Read Here) that another food price spike could arrive in supermarkets this fall. He said that grocery inflation “may be on the way,” citing a blended index of wages, diesel, and commodity costs.
Putting it all together, the theme is clear: multiple pressures are converging across the global food supply chain, tilting the balance of risks toward higher prices. That is already visible at the supermarket, particularly in beef, even as chicken and pork remain comparatively affordable. Egg prices, meanwhile, have collapsed, but fresh warnings from Mexico suggest that avocados could be the next grocery staple to surge.
For households, the best hedge may be to strengthen their own local food supply chains, whether by planting a backyard garden, buying directly from nearby farms, or building relationships with local farmers and cattle ranchers.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Indian Refiners Continue West Africa Crude Buying Spree
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 06:30 AM
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
India’s state-run refiners continue their buying spree of crude from West Africa as the Middle East crisis has sapped supply and made deliveries uncertain.
In one of the latest purchases via a tender, India’s state-owned refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) has acquired 2 million barrels of Nigerian crude oil from Shell, trade sources told Reuters on Thursday.
HPCL has bought 1 million barrels each of Nigerian crude grades Forcados and Bonga for its Visakh refinery in the state of Andhra Pradesh on the east coast of southern India. The refinery has the capacity to process 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude.
Earlier this week, reports emerged that HPCL acquired 2 million barrels of Okwuibome and Utapate crudes from Nigeria from commodity trader Glencore via a tender.
The Nigerian crude from Glencore will go to feed HPCL’s refinery in the state of Rajasthan, HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Limited (HRRL), which has a capacity to process 180,000 bpd and in which Hindustan Petroleum holds a 74% stake. The remaining stake is held by the state government of Rajasthan.
Several Indian refiners have recently bought crude from Oman and West Africa via tenders, as term supplies from the Middle East remain choked by the shipping constraints at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
State-controlled Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) has acquired about 1 million barrels of crude oil from Oman via a tender, at a premium of some $3 per barrel to Dated Brent, from Mitsui & Co Energy Trading Singapore, trade sources told Reuters earlier this week.
In addition, state-run Indian Oil Corporation, the largest refiner by capacity in the country, has bought from Chevron a total of 4 million barrels of West African crude, including Nemba, Saxi Batuque, and Clov grades from Angola, and Congo’s Djeno crude.
Indian refiners are in search of crude supply from as far as Angola in Africa and Venezuela in South America as their term supplies from the Middle East were trapped again in July and unable to reach India as planned.
END
SAUDI OIL//NEW ROUTES
Saudi Arabia’s $5 Oil Detour Is Expensive… But Worth It
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 01:20 PM
Authored by Leon Stille via OilPrice.com,
- Rerouting Saudi crude to Asia via Yanbu, Egypt’s SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope may add around $5 per barrel and up to four weeks to a voyage.
- That premium is small compared with the economic damage caused by losing access to Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb altogether.
- Saudi Arabia’s alternative export infrastructure is not a temporary workaround but a strategic asset—although it cannot replace the kingdom’s wider need to diversify beyond oil.
The latest Saudi oil route looks absurd on a map.
Crude moves west across Saudi Arabia to Yanbu, north through the Red Sea to Egypt, across the SUMED pipeline from Ain Sokhna to Sidi Kerir, then west through the Mediterranean before tankers sail around the Cape of Good Hope to reach customers in Asia.
Oil that started relatively close to Asia first travels thousands of kilometres in the opposite direction.
The detour reportedly adds around $5 per barrel once extra freight, fuel, insurance and pipeline charges are included. For a two-million-barrel cargo, that approaches $10 million. Aramco is therefore considering a separate pricing mechanism for crude loaded from Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir, because its normal Asian official selling price no longer reflects the logistics.
The immediate conclusion is that avoiding Hormuz has made Saudi oil structurally more expensive.
That is true. But it misses the more important point.
Five dollars per barrel is not only the cost of disruption. It is the price of having another option when two of the world’s most vulnerable shipping chokepoints can no longer be treated as permanently available.
Two chokepoints turned one contingency route into another
Saudi Arabia’s first line of defence against disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is its East-West Pipeline. It carries crude from the kingdom’s producing region in the east to Yanbu on the Red Sea, avoiding Hormuz completely.
That system has proved its value. Aramco says it ramped the pipeline up to its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2026. Around 2 million barrels per day feed western refineries, leaving roughly 5 million barrels per day of export capacity.
However, moving oil to Yanbu solves only the first geographical problem. Asian buyers would normally take those cargoes south through the Red Sea and exit via Bab el-Mandeb. Houthi threats and attacks have made that route unreliable as well.
The newer workaround therefore does not avoid the Red Sea entirely, as some viral descriptions claim. It uses the northern Red Sea between Yanbu and Ain Sokhna, but avoids the Houthi-exposed Bab el-Mandeb passage by moving through Egypt and into the Mediterranean.
From there, the ship still faces a remarkable journey. It must leave the Mediterranean through Gibraltar, sail around Africa and cross the Indian Ocean back towards Asia.
Reuters calculated that the journey to Asia can increase from about 19 days to 48 days. Fuel costs for a tanker can rise from approximately $1.26 million to $2.87 million, before adding around $1 million in Suez Canal fees. Fully laden very large crude carriers may also need to discharge part of their cargo into the SUMED pipeline before transiting the canal and reload it at Sidi Kerir.
None of this is cheap or efficient.
But the relevant alternative is not the old route operating normally. It is a delayed cargo versus no cargo.
The $5 premium is smaller than the risk it insures
Oil markets are accustomed to treating infrastructure efficiency as a question of cents per barrel. Under stable conditions, that makes sense. Producers compete on transport costs, crude quality and refinery margins, while buyers optimise routes aggressively.
Geopolitical resilience follows different economics.
An extra $5 on an $85 barrel is a material cost increase, but it is small compared with the price spikes, refinery shortages and lost export revenues caused by a major supply interruption. Saudi exports were down by around 2.4 million barrels per day year-on-year during the recent disruption, while Gulf exports fell to only 36% of pre-war levels.
Even more importantly, the risks do not disappear the moment both straits formally reopen.
Iran does not need to close Hormuz permanently to influence shipping. Mines, drone attacks, seizures or even credible threats can raise insurance premiums and persuade shipowners to wait. The Houthis have demonstrated a similar ability to disrupt Red Sea traffic with relatively inexpensive weapons.
A reopened chokepoint is therefore not the same thing as a dependable chokepoint.
That changes how the detour should be valued. The additional route is comparable to spare generation capacity in an electricity system or a second supplier in an industrial supply chain. It may look expensive when everything works. Its value becomes obvious only when the primary route fails.
Saudi Arabia has maintained this kind of optionality better than many producers. Despite the severe regional disruption, Aramco reported 98.4% supply reliability in the second quarter, supported by the East-West Pipeline, storage, alternative terminals and its international logistics network.
The $5 premium is part of the cost of preserving that record.
Redundancy is becoming part of the barrel
The important shift is that Aramco may now need different pricing formulas for the same crude depending on where it is loaded and how it reaches the buyer.
Official selling prices, or OSPs, are the monthly differentials that producers apply relative to regional crude benchmarks. They normally reflect grade quality, market conditions and destination. A separate Sidi Kerir formula would make logistics resilience an explicit component of the barrel’s price.
That is not necessarily permanent for every cargo. If Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb become reliably navigable again, the longest route will lose its commercial appeal. Asian refiners will not voluntarily pay millions more for an unnecessary voyage.
But the infrastructure should not be viewed as stranded the moment normal shipping resumes. Saudi Arabia is already considering expanding its east-west pipeline capacity by as much as 2 million barrels per day. Yanbu is being repositioned from a secondary outlet into a strategic export hub. SUMED, Suez, Mediterranean storage and flexible tanker arrangements add further options.
The lesson of 2026 is that relying on a single efficient route can be more expensive than maintaining several imperfect ones.
This will influence investment decisions well beyond Saudi Arabia. Pipelines, terminals and storage assets previously judged as underutilised may acquire a resilience premium. Buyers may accept higher costs for supply contracts with genuine routing flexibility. Insurers and lenders will increasingly distinguish between producers that have contingency infrastructure and those whose exports depend on one exposed waterway.
The result is a higher structural logistics cost for some barrels, even if benchmark oil prices fall.
Better oil logistics do not solve Saudi Arabia’s larger problem
There is, however, a danger in celebrating resilience too much.
Saudi Arabia can spend billions making oil exports harder to interrupt, but it cannot make global oil demand permanent. Electric vehicles, efficiency, alternative fuels and climate policy will gradually erode demand growth. The kingdom ultimately needs business models that do not depend on exporting ever-larger volumes of crude.
Riyadh understands this. According to its Vision 2030 annual report, non-oil activities accounted for 55% of real GDP in 2025, while non-oil government revenue had risen substantially since 2016. Investment in tourism, logistics, mining, manufacturing, technology and renewable energy is intended to reduce the economy’s exposure to oil.
Those figures should not be confused with completed diversification. Oil remains central to exports, fiscal capacity and the financing of many non-oil investments. Some flagship projects are expensive, and turning state-led spending into self-sustaining private activity remains difficult.
Yet this is not an either-or choice.
Saudi Arabia needs to protect the oil revenues it still earns while using those revenues to build an economy that will eventually need them less. More flexible export infrastructure supports the first task. Vision 2030 is supposed to deliver the second.
The Cape route may add $5 per barrel. That is the visible cost.
The invisible value is that Saudi Arabia can still sell the barrel when the shortest routes become unusable.
In an oil market shaped increasingly by drones, missiles and maritime chokepoints, redundancy is no longer wasted infrastructure.
It is part of the product.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1529 UP 0.0006
USA/ YEN 158.36 DOWN .062 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS
GBP/USA 1.3442 DOWN 0.0012 OR 12 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4016 UP 0.0002 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 39.68 PTS OR 1.02%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 137.75 PTS OR 0.54%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.48%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 137.75 PTS OR 0.54%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 39.68 PTS OR 1.02%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.48%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 49.26 PTS OR 0.07%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4318.00
silver:$64.57
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 47.71 UP 11 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 82.31 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 68 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9378 UP 6 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.6872 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.626 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.232 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY MORNING: 99.78 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.450% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.793% UP 3 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.917 UP 2 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.550 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.893 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.1210 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1575 UP 0.0051 OR 51 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.19 DOWN 1.33 OR YEN IS UP 133 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.8950 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.635 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 59 BASIS pts to 1.3953
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.7476 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.7405
TURKISH LIRA: 47.70 UP 11 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.605% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.178 DOWN 4 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.903 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4368.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 64.87
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 33.20 PTS OR 0.31%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 15.22 PTS OR 0.17%
FRANCE: UP 179.32 OR 0.69 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 4.40 PTS OR 0.02%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 34.47 PTS OR 0.06%
WTI Oil price 76.87 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 81.66 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 82.33 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 67 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.6001 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.216 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1568 UP 0.0044 OR 44 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3502 UP 0.0047 OR 47 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.928 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.670 DOWN 2 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.789 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.911 UP 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.49 DOWN 0.932 OR YEN UP 93 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3942 DOWN 0.0072 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 72 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 76.87
Brent OIL: 81.99
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.642
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 2 PTS to 5.194%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.191 DOWN 5 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.645 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.264 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.83 UP 29 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 47.70 UP 10 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.91 UP 1 AND 08/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,346.25 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 63.65 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 151.72 POINTS OR 0.28%
NASDAQ 100 UP 348.97 PTS OR 1.19%
VOLATILITY INDEX 14.87 DOWN 0.28 PTS OR 1.35%
GLD: $ 398.47 UP 8.80 PTS OR 2.26%
SLV/ 57.50 PTS UP 1.65 OR 2.95%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 244.92 PTS OR 0.68%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Peace Plans & Payrolls Plunge Trounce Rate-Hike Odds, Spark Gold’s Best Week In 7 Months
JOBS REPORT:
July Jobs Shock: US Lost 23K Workers, Below Lowest Estimate, As Unemp Rate Drops To 4.1%
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 08:49 AM
Ahead of today’s jobs report, in our payrolls preview we warned that “July Has Emerged As A Very Poor Month For Jobs” and boy were we right: moments ago the BLS reported that in July, the US labor force shrank by a whopping 23K, sharply lower from a downward revised 20K in June (from 57K), and the worst print since the negative 156K in February.
As noted above, the -23K print was below all estimates…
… and was a 5-sigma miss to estimates…
… as the 80K median estimate was missed by more than 100K.
And here come the Biden admin tricks of massive prior revisions: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to +63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 103,000 lower than previously reported
Yet despite the dismal Establishment Survey print, the unemployment rate actually declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, which was as a result of the number of Unemployed workers declining by 178K, more than the decline in Employed workers, which shrank by just 87K.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for teenagers (12.1%) and people who are Hispanic (4.6%) declined in July. The jobless rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), and people who are White (3.6 percent), Black (6.3 percent), or Asian (4.0 percent) showed little change over the month.
Part and parcel with the sudden chill in the labor market was the big miss in average hourly earnings, which rose just 0.1% MoM (below estimates of 0.3% and below last month’s 0.3% increase), which in turn translated into a 3.2% annual increase, also far below the 3.5% median estimate.
Developing.
WRAP UP
DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
ZERO HEDGE//AI ANSWER
The “Everything Bubble.”
That’s the label circulating widely right now for the current mix of stretched valuations and elevated prices across multiple asset classes at once.
x.com
A recent X post posed essentially the same riddle (“What do you get when you combine a 2008 housing bubble, a 2000 dot-com bubble and a 1998 currency bubble?”), and replies quickly converged on the “Everything Bubble.” Commentators pointed to high prices in stocks (especially tech/AI), real estate, crypto, bonds, and other assets, sometimes adding comparisons to 1929, tulip mania, or U.S. debt levels.
x.com
The term has been used for years (especially around the post-COVID QE period) to describe simultaneous inflation in equities, housing, bonds, commodities, and crypto driven by easy money and liquidity. In 2026 discussions it has resurfaced amid debates over AI/data-center spending, valuations, and whether a soft landing is realistic. Analysts such as Harry Dent and others have warned that this is an unusually broad, long-running bubble with no easy exit.
forbes.com
Your version swaps in a “1998 leverage crisis” (likely nodding to the LTCM collapse and related leverage stresses of that era) for the currency-bubble reference in the viral post, but the punchline remains the same: a simultaneous housing-style leverage/credit excess, tech/valuation mania, and leverage/liquidity fragility across the board.
END
Trump Signs Orders To Curb Birthright Citizenship, Target Birth Tourism
Thursday, Aug 06, 2026 – 10:10 PM
President Donald Trump signed two executive orders Thursday that will restrict automatic citizenship to children born in the United States because of commercial birth tourism and several other factors.
One of the measures bans birth tourism, the practice of traveling to the United States on a tourist visa with the intention to have a child that is given automatic U.S. citizenship.
Trump called it “a big deal” and said during the signing ceremony that birthright citizenship has been made into a joke.
The U.S. Supreme Court on June 30 struck down Trump’s executive order excluding children of illegal immigrants and legal temporary visitors from automatic birthright citizenship.
Trump called the Supreme Court decision “very unfortunate” and said his administration was making adjustments.
“We had a very unfortunate decision in the Supreme Court concerning birthright,” Trump said in the Oval Office.
“It was close, but a very, very unfortunate decision. So we’re making adjustments because it’s very unfair.”
As Tom Gantert reports for The Epoch Times, Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security adviser Stephen Miller said the 14th Amendment was passed right after the Civil War to ensure the children of slaves would be citizens.
“It had no other meaning and purpose other than that,” Miller said during the press conference.
Miller said one executive order will expand the definition of people who are ineligible for birthright citizenship.
“That includes, for instance, alien enemies of the United States, members of foreign terrorist organizations, and large categories of people who lobby and act on behalf of foreign governments,” he said.
Miller said the second action Trump took would ban birth tourism.
“The idea that people come here, pretend to be a tourist, pretend to be a visitor, say they want to go to Disney Land … but the real reason they are here is to have a child, make that child an automatic citizen, leave our country, and then have a U.S. citizen child—it gives them access, under this broken system, to welfare benefits, ultimately the voting booth … that practice of birth tourism, is as of the signing of this order, hereby banned.”
Trump said that wealthy people were building businesses around birthright citizenship.
“That’s not the way it was suppose to work. It’s a disgrace,” Trump said. “They are buying their way in. We are not going to let it happen.”
END
Trump Threatens To Jail Arms Shortage ‘Leakers’
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Aug 07, 2026 – 02:00 PM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
President Trump on Thursday threatened “leakers” with jail time over reports about dwindling US military stockpiles as a result of the Iran war, and claimed the US had plenty of munitions available.
“The US has massive amounts of ‘munitions,’ especially of certain types. Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the US as needed,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“Defense companies are building the largest number of plants and factories in our country’s history. The ‘leakers’ of these treasonous statements are being hunted down,” the president added.
Some of the most significant reports about the shortage of advanced munitions didn’t come from media reports but from analysis published by the think tank the Center for International Studies (CSIS), which used publicly available data to produce its estimates.
CSIS found that the US has used about 60% of its advanced Patriot air defense missiles and about half of its interceptors for the THAAD missile defense system, though sources told CNN that the US had actually used about 80% of its THAADs during the war.
While Trump says that US arms makers are working to produce more munitions, the current rate of weapons use far exceeds the rate at which they can be produced, and it will take years to significantly increase production.
Media reports have also said that the US has used up nearly all of its ATACMS missiles and Precision-Strike Missiles, which were both used extensively in strikes on Iran.
Trump also responded to a report from The Washington Post that said he lashed out at US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth over the munitions shortages, which one source told the outlet was part of the reason why Trump held off on his threats to dramatically escalate the war.
Sources told the Post that on the sidelines of a recent cabinet meeting at Camp David, Trump vented his frustration at Hegseth over the munitions shortages. The report said that Hegseth then blamed his deputy, Stephen Feinberg, for both the shortages and for failing to ensure Trump was informed about the issue.
“The Fake News, as usual, is spreading false and completely unfounded rumors. I am extremely happy with the job that Pete Hegseth is doing,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. He said that the Post published the report “despite our telling them their story is completely FALSE” and added that he believed their “fake ‘reporting’ is treasonous.”
KING NEWS
| The King Report August 7, 2026 Issue 7800 | Independent View of the News |
| Trump says deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz could come ‘soon’ ‘I’m involved in the negotiation. I think we’re doing fine. It could be soon,” says US president, referring to possible deal with Iran… “It’s sort of open right now. You know, we have a thing called the blockade, headed up by the US Navy, and we control it,” he said… https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/trump-says-deal-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-could-come-soon-/4020620 Fox Managing Editor, Politics @WillRicci By my count, this is at least the 4th time Trump has told us Hormuz was about to reopen. What changed? Not the Strait. Traffic is still a fraction of prewar levels. Not Iran’s leverage. The new proposal may actually formalize it, giving Tehran control over inbound ships and possibly a cut of the cargo. Sounds like what’s changed is Trump’s definition of “open.” It used to mean Iran had no veto and collected no toll. Now Trump may call the Strait open while negotiating both. The war clearly lacked one stable objective. Is he really moving the finish line until it lands on Tehran’s position? @AJENews: US CENTCOM says 49 vessels ‘redirected’ during renewed blockade of Iran Equity action on Thursday was lame except that the usual suspects poured into AI bubble stocks: Near 11:20 ET: MU +1.9%, MSFT +1.67%, AMD +2.16%, INTC +0.71%; NVDA, which rallied sharply on Wednesday, -0.52%; Apple -0.41%; GOOGL -0.9%, PLTR -1.87% ESUs were -9.50, NQUs -32.00, USUs -10/32; Gold +$10.00, WTI Oil +$1.89, Gasoline +7.29 cts Most importantly, the yen/$ breached its 156-157 trading/rig range, weakening to 158.463 at 11:30 ET. BBG: IRAN WEIGHS TOUGHER HORMUZ TRANSIT RULES Iran’s parliament is reviewing a draft bill that would tighten transit rules through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. Key proposals include: • Ban vessels linked to the U.S., Israel, and other hostile states • Block military and civilian cargo tied to Israel • Restrict ships linked to actions against the “Axis of Resistance” • Deny passage to parties owing compensation to Iran • Impose fines of up to 20% of cargo value for violations The proposal remains under review and has not been approved. 11:54 ET https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2085394030586728631 • Ships would initially enter via the northern lane (Iran) and exit via the southern lane (Oman) • Later, all traffic would shift to a central corridor • Iran would manage inbound traffic, while Iran and Oman would jointly manage outbound traffic • Transit fees (5% to 7% per Reuters) would be based on services provided, not cargo value, including insurance, bunkering and environmental services. Reuters: “Iran is seeking fees of between 5% and 7% of the price of cargoes from ships using the strait. Oman is discussing fees of around 3%, while Washington wants no fees at all.” Reports quickly surfaced that the shipping industry condemned Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit deal. They complained that the plan is impractical due to US sanctions, insurance restrictions, and proposed transit fees of up to 7% of cargo value, which could be $2m+ per cargo. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that Iran is privately “begging” the U.S. to negotiate an end to the fighting but is “not ready to make a deal…” https://www.facebook.com/CSPAN/videos/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-said-thursday-that-iran-is-privately-begging-the-/1574233444332426/ Iran warns Gulf states: Convince Trump to negotiate or we hit your oil, power and water plants: Reuters From Tehran’s perspective, Trump now faces two unpalatable choices, the senior Iranian official said: escalate a conflict that could engulf the Gulf and disrupt global energy supplies, or accept a negotiated outcome that falls short of the decisive victory Washington seeks. One of the principal obstacles to an agreement, the senior regional diplomat said, is Washington’s reluctance to allow Tehran to emerge claiming victory. “The United States wants something it can present as proof that it won the war,” the diplomat said. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-threatens-hit-gulf-states-if-us-launches-new-strikes-2026-08-05/ @realDonaldTrump: The Fake News, as usual, is spreading false and completely unfounded rumors. I am extremely happy with the job that Pete Hegseth is doing… Iran, where the country has been decimated for the purpose of NOT ALLOWING IT TO EVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON, is going very well!.. Aug 06, 2026, 12:51 AM Oil surged after the above story appeared. ESUs, NQUs, and USUs broke lower. ESUs stair stepped lower due to the above confusing Iran news and hit a daily low of 7724.25 at 12:24 ET. ESUs then plodded to 7747.75 at 15:10 ET. Daily liquidation appeared; ESUs fell to 7727.00 at 15:50 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESUs to 7741.50 at 16:00 ET. US oil imports from Saudi Arabia at zero in July, first time in 40 years (since 1985) – BBG The halt in Saudi oil exports to the US stems from disruptions caused by the US-Iran conflict… US refiners have been looking for alternatives to Saudi cargoes as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other war-related disruptions pushed up prices for barrels tied to the global benchmark… https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/us-oil-imports-saudi-arabia-183350172.html The FT: Warsh would be prepared to raise interest rates at September’s meeting if inflation readings released in coming weeks are hot, and markets ratchet up their expectations for increases in borrowing costs, the people familiar with his thinking said… https://www.ft.com/content/debe096f-ec89-424f-a8ca-d3843ef53549?syn-25a6b1a6=1 @DeItaone: WARREN QUESTIONS PCE INFLATION METHODOLOGY CHANGES Dem Sen. Elizabeth Warren is seeking details on upcoming changes to the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure: New methodology starts with August data (released in September)  Changes could reduce reported inflation by about 0.2 percentage points Warren called for greater transparency but cited no evidence of political interference Revisions affect software, legal fees and investment advice pricing The changes do not affect CPI.Warren suspects, with good reason, that Team Trump is moving the goal posts on inflation metrics. @RealNickMugalli: NVDA is potentially downspec the memory configuration on the upcoming Rubin Ultra moving away from a 12-Hi HBM4e baseline to lower layer 8-Hi or HBM4 alternatives is a heavy psychological blow to memory sentiment that hits at the exact worst day for SNDK… (Long thread) https://x.com/RealNickMugalli/status/2085405587999781042 Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA +0.49%; Energy +1.59%; Oil Service +2.96% Negative aspects of previous session Substantial elements within the Fed are at odds with Bessent. DJIA -0.85%; DJTA -0.7%, Nasdaq -0.06%, and Nas 100 -0.39%; USUs -20/32 at NYSE close Sept WTI Oil +2.55% at 16:15 ET; Sept Gasoline +11.06 cts, Sept Deisel +11.57 cts, Brent +4.85% Ambiguous aspects of previous session The Iran situation continues to be a mess, a morass, and mendacious. Lumber has declined for 11 straight sessions; but copper is making all-time highs First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7716.99 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7742.85 (10:20 ET); 7698.15 (12:16 ET) Ch. 14’s @DBalazada: Despite All Developments, Activities at Kolang Gazla Mountain Continue • According to assessments by Western intelligence agencies, Iran is continuing its activities at Kolang Gazla Mountain with full capacity and is currently preparing and rebuilding this nuclear site. • At the same time, Tehran is attempting to divert the attention of global public opinion and media from the nuclear program to the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, to shift… focus to other issues. • Iran is also working to buy time. From Tehran’s perspective, every day that passes until the U.S. midterm elections is to the advantage of the Islamic Republic. Summary: The message from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is clear: “We have the situation under control and will not retreat even one centimeter.” Despite the Distraction, Work at Mount Pickaxe Continues • According to Western intelligence assessments, Iran continues work at Mount Pickaxe, accelerating efforts to restore the sensitive nuclear site… @kit_lowe: Former WSJ journo (Fed Whisperer) Jon Hilsenrath responds on LinkedIn ATTENTION MR. BESSENT, 2.0: YOU ARE COMING UP SHORT ON YOUR OWN ‘3-3-3’ GOALS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been attacking financial journalists on Twitter [X] this morning. It’s petty, but let’s judge a man not by what he says. Let’s judge him on what he accomplishes. During the 2024 presidential campaign, Bessent laid out a ‘3-3-3’ economic agenda for his prospective administration. This was a promise to achieve annual economic growth of 3%, reduce the federal budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product, and increase daily output of oil by 3 million barrels per day. President Trump’s economic co-pilot is failing on every count… On one count that matters to many Americans, the economy is delivering a number with a “3” in it: The inflation rate was 3.7% higher in June that it was a year earlier, as measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred personal consumption expenditure price index. I have no desire to get political, but when a politician attacks honest people who I know and respect, that bugs me. It’s petty and meant purely as distraction. https://x.com/kit_lowe/status/2085133720718369078 The FT’s @rbrtrmstrng: (1) Timiraos is a pro. (2) Is this the sort of tweet a high official sends out when everything is going according to plan? WSJ: Trump Has Called Warsh Repeatedly Since He Became Fed Chair The president has sought Warsh’s counsel on issues such as how the war in Iran (and AI) is affecting the economy https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-has-called-warsh-repeatedly-since-he-became-fed-chair-32804cf7 i24’s @ariel_oseran: A senior Saudi source tells Al Arabiya that intelligence reports indicate that Iran’s IRGC, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias are coordinating imminent attacks against Saudi Arabia, stating that the kingdom “will not hesitate to take all necessary measures to respond to any aggression.” The source says the reports are particularly alarming as they come while the Kingdom continues efforts to promote de-escalation and peaceful solutions, “with negotiations moving in a positive direction.” Fed Balance Sheet: +$10.377B on +$10.358B of T-Bills; Reserves: +$8.779B Today – Traders will play for the Friday Rally and an Iran deal. If there is no deal, there could be late selling. However, stocks will be buttressed by the expectation that Team Trump will announce something to boost stocks before the NYSE opening on Monday. Bulls hope that the July Employment Report is soft enough to induce buying on the assumption that it will delay Fed rate hikes. But will Team Trump allow the BLS to publish a soft July jobs report? Expected Economic Data: July NFP 80k, Mfg 4k, Rate 4.2%, Wages 0.3% m/m & 3/5% y/y, Workweek 34.3; July US Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.7%; June Consumer Credit +$10.0B; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 9 ET ESUs are +4.75; NQUs +98.50; USUs -2/32; WTI Oil is +$0.72; Gasoline is +1.31 cts at 20:00 ET. The yen/$ is 157.446. S&P Index 50-day MA: 7489; 100-day MA: 7246; 200-day MA: 7044 (S&P 500 Close 7709.96) DJIA 50-day MA: 51,988; 100-day MA: 50,156; 200-day MA: 49,205 (DJIA Close 53,885.10) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) Senate committee votes (8-5 party line) to hold Dr. Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress Today’s vote could initiate a process that would result in the Justice Department considering whether to charge him with a crime… https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/06/politics/live-news/fauci-contempt-hearing Senate Com Chair GOP Sen Rand Paul said he will refer Fauci to the DoJ for contempt of Congress. Sen Rand Paul: ““We will hand carry this over to the Attorney General… We will hand carry this to the district court here in Columbia.” https://x.com/RealLindellTV/status/2085386878807912807 More than 600,000 voter files ripped off Arizona site in 2020 by hacker, but DOJ didn’t prosecute Though the FBI identified a suspect who confessed to investigators, state and federal prosecutors declined to bring charges in a 2020 online hack that stole more than 600,000 voter registration files from Maricopa County, and exposed the sensitive personal information of 933 voters… The Biden Justice Department and local prosecutors declined to bring charges even after the FBI got the suspect to confess, according to declassified documents made public Thursday by the White House… The suspect, who described himself as a “hacker or tinkerer,” told the agents that he first discovered the vulnerabilities in Maricopa’s website about two months earlier, in September 2020… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/6amhundreds-thousands-voter-files-were-hacked-arizona-2020-doj-declined WaPo’s @TaraCopp: President Donald Trump’s frustration over the Iran war boiled over at Camp David last week, where he demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on why he had apparently been misled on extreme munitions shortages that now threaten to limit military options with Iran… https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/05/trump-hegseth-clashed-camp-david-over-iran-missile-depletion-concerns/ Karoline Leavitt @PressSec: I was at Camp David with President Trump and Secretary Hegseth. This literally never happened, and we told the Washington Post that repeatedly. This B.S. story was shopped to many outlets by someone clearly out to disparage the Secretary, for whatever reason… FAKE NEWS! Trump on munitions stockpiles: “We have certain types of munitions that are very powerful and that we have unlimited, virtually unlimited, supply. We have others where it’s a little bit tighter…We have certain types which are very powerful and very good, and we have an unlimited supply. We’re in great shape…We have literally massive amounts of ammunition.” https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/2085464877884191221 @washingtonpost: Exclusive: President Trump recently told donors in private that he wants to see his vice president win the 2028 presidential election — a sign that he is open to publicly backing JD Vance. “At the end of the day, we need to elect JD,” Trump said. @Osint613: Trump denies telling donors to back Vance for 2028: “No, no!” https://x.com/Osint613/status/2085475830361186421 GOP @SenJohnBarrasso: Democrats will tear up the Constitution and tear down the United States of America. Republicans will not allow that to happen. We will fight against these extremists. We will fight for freedom and American greatness. Actor @RealJamesWoods: With all due respect, you guys couldn’t pass a law requiring voter ID. You’re helpless. GOP Sen @tedcruz: (Journalist) Hasan is bringing to life (complaining about Islamophobia) Norm McDonald’s famous quip: “What terrifies me is if ISIS were to detonate a nuclear device and kill 50 million Americans. Imagine the backlash against peaceful Muslims?” – Norm Macdonald CNN: Sen. Mitch McConnell said that he has been discharged from the rehabilitation center where he had been recovering after a fall and will continue to recover at home. https://cnn.it/4cj8j4P @FoxNews: Sen. Mitch McConnell is heading home after being discharged from rehab, but it’s doubtful he returns to the Senate before the fall, @ChadPergram reports. “On the advice of my doctors, I’ll maintain an intensive regimen of physical therapy from home during the state work period, and I’ll continue to engage with my staff and colleagues on important Senate business,” McConnell said in a statement. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Watch: Mamdani Booed Off Stage At Pro-Police Event As 9/11 Backlash Builds
Thursday, Aug 06, 2026 – 06:50 PM
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani got a blistering welcome from Staten Islanders Tuesday night, drowned out by a wall of boos that chased the self-avowed Democratic socialist off the stage in under a minute at a National Night Out Against Crime event.
Mamdani had come to Midland Beach to address thousands gathered for the NYPD’s 43rd annual National Night Out Against Crime, an event built around strengthening the bond between police officers and the neighborhoods they protect–however–it did not go as planned.
Videos rocketing around social media showed the crowd jeering as the mayor stepped toward the podium, with attendees shouting at Mamdani to leave and others flashing thumbs-down gestures in the borough long considered the city’s most conservative.
“It’s a pleasure to be here, I want to say thank you …” Mamdani began amid loud and lusty boos and a barrage of insults such as “you suck!”
The mayor kept smiling through it.
“Happy Night Out Against Crime. It’s amazing to be here for the Staten Island community,” Mamdani said, thanking local officials and Staten Island artist Scott LoBaido before wrapping up with, “God bless everyone. Thank you.”
The whole appearance clocked in at less than a minute before the mayor walked off. Local reports said Mamdani later stopped to pose for photos with some attendees, hostile reception notwithstanding.
The Staten Island rebuke comes as thousands are protesting Mamdani’s presence at 9/11 memorial events. Among those protesting the mayor is Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman vowing to turn his back on Mamdani if the mayor shows up.
“I would equate this to a wake. You don’t go to a wake if you’re not welcome,” Blakeman told reporters, according to the New York Post.
“I think it’s completely appropriate if family members ask him not to come, but if he does come I think there’s a respectful and peaceful way to protest that and I would suggest that people turn their back on the mayor,” Blakeman said.
“He’s not welcome there because he has yet to say anything in opposition to the global intifada. As a matter of fact it seems like he supports that phrase which is part of the reason why we had the tragedy we had on 9/11.”
Staten Island is the most conservative borough in New York City, although it maintains a higher number of registered Democrats than Republicans. As of February 2024, 39.72 percent of registered voters were Democrats compared to 31.46 percent who vote Republican.
GREG HUNTER….
harveyorganblog.com 
