AUGUST 28/OPTIONS EXPIRY CONCLUDES ON MONDAY: THE CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID ON WARSH’S HAWKISH JACKSON HOLE SPEECH: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $ 119.00 TO $4479.15 WHILE SILVER FELL BY $2.44 TO $67.02//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $3.50 TO $1842/50 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $82.00 TO $1430.00///GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT COURTESY OF ALASDAIR MACLEOD AND VBL//REPORTS TONIGHT FROM THE UK AND SPAIN/ISRAEL AND USA VS IRAN UPDATES//ISRAEL TBN//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//OIL UPDATES AND CRACK SPREADS//CANADA VS USA UPDATES//USA DATA RELEASES//WARSH’S JACKSON HOLE SPEECH//USA ECONOMIC REPORTS/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 120 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 64 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 3 58 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 37 905 C ADM 36
TOTAL: 159 159
MONTH TO DATE: 20,183
JPMorgan stopped 58/159
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2026: 159 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 15,900 OZ or 0.4945 TONNES
total notices so far: 20,342 contracts FOR 2,034,200 OZ OR 63.272 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 7 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.035 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1759 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 8.795 million oz
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GLD AND SLV
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
GLD
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $119.00 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $2.44 AT THE SLV: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.543 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//
CLOSING INVENTORY: 493.380 MILLION OZ
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL A STRONG 583 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 109,549 STILL A LOT HIGHER FROM ITS NEW RECORD LOW OF 95,999 SET MAY 1/2026. THE RECORD HIGH OI FOR SILVER IS 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $1.33 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. ON THE FIRST OF MAY, WE REACHED OUR RECORD LOW OI OF 95,999 SURPASSING EVERY DAY NEW OI LOWS SET DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL 2026.
NOW ON A NET BASIS OUR SPECULATORS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO GOING SHORT. THE FRBNY ON A NET BASIS IS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER TO OUR LONG BANKERS AND THEN TENDER FOR PHYSICAL AT 4 PM EACH NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE HUGE SHORTFALL IN PHYSICAL SILVER IN LONDON THERE IS A LOTTERY TO SEE WHO GETS ANY OF THE PHYSICAL SILVER AVAILABLE THAT WHICH THEY ARE OBLIGATED TO DELIVER. THEY WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THEIR PHYSICAL METAL AND IF NOBODY GETS ANY THEY THEN COME BACK THE NEXT DAY AND SO ON. THIS IS IN LONDON, THE HOME OF PHYSICAL SILVER!! THE FACT THAT WE ARE WITNESSING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON HIGHLIGHTS THE FACT THAT THE COMEX IS OUT OF SILVER AS WELL.
WE ARE NOW MOVING TO A MUCH LOWER BASE IN SILVER PRICING BREAKING MAJOR SUPPORT LEVEL OF $70.00. SHORTLY WE WILL REVERT BACK TO NUMBERS GREATER THAN 70 DOLLARS PER OZ.
WE HAVE A TINY LOSS OF 44 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE OF 539 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE , WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY TRADING// WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 540 CONTRACT T.A.S. ISSUANCE!! / THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TODAY TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE GAIN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $100.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON THURSDAY WITH SILVER’S GAIN IN PRICE.
THE PRICE STILL FINISHED BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $70.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE AND STILL WELL BELOW THE $100.00 MARK CLOSING AT $69.68 UP $1.33. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING HAVING MANY HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES // TODAY’S WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 540 T.A.S. CONTRACTS !!. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING ABOVE THE 100.00 DOLLAR MARK!! AND NOW THE HUGE SUPPORT LEVEL OF 70 DOLLARS HAS BEEN BROKEN// //.MAMMOTH SIZE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE BECOMING THE NORM AT THE COMEX NOW!!
THERE IS NO NEXT LINE IN THE SAND ONCE THE 100.00 DOLLAR SILVER IS PIERCED AGAIN. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 539 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR VERY STRONG SIZED 540 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED FOR RAID PURPOSES//AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE
IN ESSENCE WE HAD A TINY LOSS OF 44 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.33. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE GOVERNMENT (FRBY) COMEX CONTRACTS TRADING ALL WEEK AND A MAJOR PORTION WILL BE REMOVED BY DAYS END. (I RECORD THIS FOR YOU ON A DAILY BASIS). THE STICKY SPECULATOR LONGS STILL REMAIN STOIC. OUR SILVER SHORT SPECS GOT SLAUGHTERED TO BITS THIS PAST WEEK.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.
THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1)MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, THROUGHOUT MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: A STRONG SIZED 540 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THESE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED FRBNY BANKERS).
THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS AS ONE UNIT, BUT SELL THE SHORT SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE LONG SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS NOW ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1.1 TRILLION DOLLDOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF XX CONTRACTS OR XXX OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.970 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ. (IN EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK AND ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD TAKE THAT RISK. THE BUYER IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.)
JULY INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A 3 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 0.015MILLION STANDING ADVANCES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ///
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 6.240 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 9 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 45,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 8.760 MILLION OZ/
SUMMARY OF OUR JULY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH
WE HAD:
/ STRONG COMEX LOSS+// A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS AT 539 CONTRACTS // A STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 540 CONTRACTS
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 58 CONTRACTS OF OI SILVER //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST.. ACCUMULATION
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 20 DAY(S), total 7871 contracts: OR 39.355 MILLION OZ (393 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 39.355 MILLION OZ
LAST 48 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
2026:
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE. 64.065 MILLION OZ//FINAL AND FAIR SIZED THIS MONTH.
JULY: 38.335 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 39.355. MILLION OZ.
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 525 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.33 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE OF 539 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT, AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS).
INITIAL STANDING: 6.240 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 45,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 8.805 MILLION OZ.
LAST 17 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.960 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ
JULY : INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 6.240 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 45,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 8.805 MILLION OZ/
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FOR TODAY (540) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING//.
WE HAD 7 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 35,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY BANK OF INDIA
GOLD COMEX OUTLINE;
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2375 OI CONTRACTS DOWN TO 428,998 CONTRACT OI AND THIS OI STILL SURPASSES BY A CONSIDERABLE MARGIN THE ALL TIME LOW AT 326,052 SET JUNE3/2026 AND THIS OI IS MUCH FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE HAVE NOW ADVANCED PAST THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS OF 357,136 SET APRIL 2/.2026AND 354,581 SET AT THE END OF APRIL 2026. WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAY FROM OUR TWO DECADES OLD: 390,000 CONTRACTS LOW SET IN THE YEAR OF 2001 WITH TRADING FOR GOLD AT $260.00. THUS DURING EARLY APRIL WE HAD AN ALL TIME LOW OI IN COMEX (354,531) BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. IN MAY: RECORD LOW OI OF 326,052 WITH A GOLD PRICE OF $4,460 THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE COMEX SHIP, NOBODY WANT TO PLAY IN THIS CROOKED CASINO!! (AND THIS CORRELATES WITH SILVER’S LOW OI OF 104,154 CONTRACTS WITH A MUCH HIGHER SILVER PRICE BASE//$58.00)
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1126 OI CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 3,095 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $11.35
LAST 17 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES: (MAY 2025 THROUGH TO /AUGUST 2026)
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
2 JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
3.JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRSST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F 0.0062 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.824TONNES
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNESS TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 OZ OR 6.220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS FOR 3,900 OZ OR 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING AUG GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 880 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 428,998 SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 326,052 SET JUNE 3 AND RISING FROM OUR PREVIOUS RECORD LOW//MAY 28.2026 WE HAVE THUS RECORD LOW COMEX OI WITH A HIGH PRICE OF GOLD
SILVER ALSO HAS AN ULTRA SMALL SIZED AND EXTREMELY LOW COMEX OI OF 109,549 CONTRACTS// STILL ABOVE FROM PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS SET DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL AND MAY FIRST.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3,095 CONTRACTS WITH 2375 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 720 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3,095 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 629 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON .
GOLD PRICE ROSE BY $11.35
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT (720) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 3501 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES 3,095 CONTRACTS!! WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE.
WE HAVE 1) NOW REVERTED TO OUR FORMAT OF BANKER (FRBNY) GOING ON THE LONG SIDE AND HUGE NUMBERS OF NEWBIE SPECULATORS GOING TO THE SHORT SIDE LED BY THE NOSE BY OUR HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS.. IT WAS OUR SHORT SPECULATORS THAT WILL BE BRUTALIZED WHEN OUR CENTRAL BANKS TENDER FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THEIR NEWLY BOUGHT GOLD FROM THE SPECS THIS MORNING. THE SPECS WILL BE SCRAMBLING LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD TO DELIVER TO OUR LONG CENTRAL BANKS.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS JANUARY TO AUGUST:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES/ PLUS 0.0062 TONNES EX FOR RISK///NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 40.824TONNES.
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 1.552 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF: 1.7045//TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 3.3312 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS FOR 0.6220 TONNES/TO OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.0155 TONNES//TOTALL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 TONNES TO OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
3)SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION IN THE COMEX SESSION// A HUGE GOVT LIQUIDATION // WITH A STRONG LOSS OF EQUITY SHARES/AUGUST 21 HAVING 1)A COMEX GOLD PRICE GAIN OF 11.35 DOLLARS AND WE HAD 2) SPEC PILING HUGELY ON THE SHORT SIDE // /// +3. EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ALSO PILING INTO THE LONG SIDE. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 3,095 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND AS WELL A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN AUG (67.2441 TONNES). THE SHORT SPECS CONTINUED TO PILE INTO THE SHORT SIDE AND WERE SLAUGHTERED.//, CENTRAL BANKERS THE LONG SIDE AND THEY THEN TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL WITH THEIR PURCHASES OF CONTRACTS../ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED THURSDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4)A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) V) A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD(720) AND 6. A SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE (629) FOR RAID PURPOSES.!!!
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 46,211 CONTRACTS OR 4,621,100 OZ OR 143.735 TONNES IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2310 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN20 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 143.735 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2025, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 143.735 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.050% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2023 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2024: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES
2025: AND NOW 2026
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
YEAR 2026:
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 163.82 TONNES
AUGUST: 143.735 TONNES
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EARLY ASIA TRADING FRIDAY AUGUST 28
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.39 PTS OR 0.11%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 253.02 PTS OR 0.38%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 253.02 PTS OR 0.38%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.46%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.7207
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7210 Oil UP TO 82.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 88.01 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.7207 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.7210 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
SPREADERS:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMITS
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG 583 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 109,549
EFP ISSUANCE 539 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 145 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 583 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 539 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN ATINY GAIN OF 14 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $11.35
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 0.220 MILLION PAPER OZ
STANDING ADVANCES AT 8.805 MILLION OZ
SILVER PRICE GAIN OF $1.33
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 2375 CONTRACTS TO 428,998 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING/. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE AGAIN OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (3,095 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $11.35)
WE THUS HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (3,095 CONTRACTS), WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A SMALL CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 720 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0000 TONNES OF GOLD. TOTAL THUS SO FAR THIS MONTH: 1276 CONTRACTS//127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES (5 OCCASIONS)
MONTH OF MAY RECORD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK: THE HIGHEST EVER ISSUANCE!!
MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND AUGUST
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY: 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES (5 OCCASIONS THIS MONTH)
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO AUGUST:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 131+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THIS IS A CENTRAL BANK
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES//5 OCCASIONS
DETAILS ON OUR NEW AUG COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3,095 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE(UP $11.35). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY/AUG CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A SMALL SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 629 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
THEN IT SLOWS DOWN!
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: 2 SO FAR FOR 200 IZ IR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 131+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 16 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2025
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 40.818TONNES PLUS 0.00622 TONNES EXHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTAL 40.824 TONNES . TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 17.5802 TONNES OR 0.8790 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
AUGUST INITIAL; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STANDS: 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 220 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR 0.6220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST: 0.0715 NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.9688 TONNES AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS OR 3900 OZ (0.1213 TONNES)//STANDING, IN TOTAL, THUS ADVANCES HUGELY TO 67.2441 TONNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE 4 YEARS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING AUGUST. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT ROSE BY $11.35)
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY // COMEX SESSION// DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING /FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE AT COMEX OF $11.35
WE HAD 1126 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM PRELIMINARY NUMBERS TO FINAL COMEX NUMBERS.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3,095 CONTRACTS OR 309,500 OZ 9.626 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
20,342 notices 2,034,200 OZ
63.272 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 1
i) Into Malca: 100,208.206 oz
total deposit: 100,208.206 oz
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comex withdrawal
0 ENTRIES
adjustments: 2//
Brinks: customer to deaer 179,182.036 oz
Malca: customer to dealer: 136,577.448 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUG OI STANDS AT 160 CONTRACTS HAVING A HUGE LOSS OF 868 CONTRACTS.
NORMAL STANDING FOR GOLD YESTERDAY: 63.153. TODAY’S STANDING IS 63.2752 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 3.9688 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THE NORMAL STANDING INCLUDES OUR NEXT 39 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR AN ADDITIONAL 3900 OZ (0.1213 TONNES) WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
SEPTEMBER LOST 6 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 2811. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A SMALL 2000 CONTRACTS STAND OR 200,000 OZ (6.220 TONNES)
OCT LOST 903 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 49,731
.
We had 159 contracts filed for today representing 15,900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 3 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 159 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 58 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,342) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUG (160 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 159 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,034,300 OZ OR (63.2752 Tonnes of gold)then we add our 5 exchange for risk of 1276 contracts for 127,600oz or 3.9688..new standing advances to 67.2441 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUG. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,342) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUG( 160) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 159 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,034,300 OZ OR (63.2752 Tonnes of gold) plus 3.9688 tonnes exchange for risk..new standing advances to 67.2441 tonnes
new total of gold standing in AUG becomes 67.2441 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUG 67.2441 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST
confirmed volume THURSDAY confirmed 178.416/ GOOD// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,666,759.925 oz 51.843 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,666,759.925 tonnes oz 51.843 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,125,369.004 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,881,928.221 tonnes (462.890 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,243,440.783 oz. Lots of eligible gold leaving the comex
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,215,169 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
411.04 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
AUG DELIVERY MONTH
AUGUST 28
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
2 entries
i) Out of Asahi 40,843.820 oz ii) Out of CNT 30,160.510 oz
total withdrawal 71,004.330 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
0
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
ENTRIES: 1
i) Into Asahi 300.856.000 oz total deposit: 300,856.000 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
7 CONTRACT(S) ( 35,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 Contracts (10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1759 contracts 8.795 MILLION oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRIES: 1
i) Into Asahi 300.856.000 oz
total deposit: 300,856.000 oz
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withdrawals:
2 ENTRIES
i) Out of Asahi 40,843.820 oz ii) Out of CNT 30,160.510 oz
total withdrawal 71,004.330 oz
adjustments : 1
Delaware: customer to dealer: 70,559.121 oz
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TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 99.258 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 338.403 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 9 FOR A LOSS OF 95 CONTRACTS.
YESTERDAY WE HAD 8.760 MILLION OZ STAND : TODAY WE HAVE 8.805 MILLION OZ STAND
THUS WE HAVE A GAIN OF 9 CONTRACTS I.E. 45,000 OZ WILL UNDERGO A QUEUE JUMP AND STAND AHEAD OF US SMALL MORTALS AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
SEPTEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 8364 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 6773 CONTRACTS. SEPTEMBER IS THE FRONT MONTH AND WE SHOULD SEE AROUND 4000 CONTRACTS STAND FOR DELIVERY OR AROUND 20 MILLION OZ..
OCT LOST 40 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 2472
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 7 or 0.035 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume THURSDAY; 82.297// excellent/
AND NOW AUGUST. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUG. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1759 X5,000 oz = 8.795 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of August and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the AUG 2026 contract month: (1759 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUG (9) minus number of notices served upon today (7 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the AUG .contract month equating to 8.805 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 99.258 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 137.898/338.403million: 40.82%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD/
AUGUST 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $119.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
AUGUST 27//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 26//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1/138 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 25//2026/WITH GOLD FLAT /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.279 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.489 TONNES
AUGUST 24//2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 12.50 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
AUGUST 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.98 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 20//2026/WITH GOLD UP $29.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 9.41 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 19//2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.42 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.24 TONNES
AUGUST 18//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.13 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1030.66 TONNES
AUGUST 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.53 TONNES
AUGUST 14//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.80 TONNES
AUGUST 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3,139 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025,80TONNES
AUGUST 12//2026/WITH GOLD UP $24.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.562 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.672TONNES
AUGUST 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.52 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.06TONNES
AUGUST 10//2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.82 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017. 540TONNES
/AUGUST 7//2026/WITH GOLD UP $98.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.720TONNES
AUGUST 6//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.851 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.143TONNES
AUGUST 5//2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.146 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.874TONNES
AUGUST 3//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.02TONNES
JULY 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.40 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 29//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 28//2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 27.2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JLY 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP 6.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 98.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.87TONNES
JULY 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $73.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1046.64 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.44 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.543,000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.380 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.33 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.60 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.174 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.43 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.9786 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.097 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.633 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.754 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.48 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $2.92 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.169 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.72 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.259 MILLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.02 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.11 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 720,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.064 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.92 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.75 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 3.434 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 1.085 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.907 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.83 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.00 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.75 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.467 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $2.20: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :A DEPOSIT OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROIM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.90: :NOCHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 723,000 OZ INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.34: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.722 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN 2.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.723MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 493.380 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ//ALASDAIR MACLEOD..
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ//ALASDAIR MACLEOD..
A week of consolidation for gold and silver ends with a strong performance for silver. Driving silver’s price are factors common to gold, plus the gradual reopening of Indian demand.
Silver volumes on Comex have been high for the last seven trading sessions, while open interest has climbed from ultra-low levels, but it is still in deeply oversold territory by this measure:
India’s silver imports have been curtailed by the Indian government’s action in a deluded attempt to improve its trade balance. It has suppressed not only investment demand, but also industrial demand from the government-supported solar panel industry. This error is slowly being remedied as new import licences for some 400 tonnes have now been approved.
While Indian demand is not the only factor driving silver, investors who have been very bearish are now overhanging the market as buyers, a factor which is making market makers and bullion bank traders on the short side nervous. Hence, we see the characteristics of a new bear squeeze, reinforced by the managed money category virtually out of the market, illustrated by their lowest long position for 20 years:
It’s often said that silver’s trend leads that of gold, on the basis that speculator activity is reflected there first due to poor liquidity. That being so, then a pickup in silver speculator longs beginning to be seen in the chart above augers well for gold. But we have already observed and drawn readers’ attention to a fundamental change in gold’s behaviour, reflecting what is termed the return of the debasement trade.
Adding to the debasement of the dollar being reflected in a rising dollar-gold price is commodity scarcity, particularly diesel today which affects all consumer prices, and farm produce tomorrow due to a convergence of disruptive factors. Crack spread premiums over the oil price are rising again (HT Data4thepeople):
As well as rising fuel costs the weather, the most powerful el Niño, lack of fertilisers, and the closure of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports are collectively conspiring to drive up food prices later this autumn.
Wholesale wheat prices are already up 46% this year and rice 55%. Due to drought, farmers in Europe and the UK are drawing on winter feed stocks for livestock, guaranteeing a crisis later. It is only a short matter of time before markets will anticipate the consequences for G7 currencies’ purchasing power. And a quick scan of their 10-year bond yields shows them still trending higher, despite the US treasury acting to suppress its bond yields.
Later today, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh delivers his Jackson Hole speech which may or may not move markets. Will he be candid about the inflation outlook? So far, he has refused to be drawn on forward guidance, but as the cliché goes that is the elephant in the room.
In the grandest of schemes, the facts are that bond yields are going higher destabilising credit bubbles, and the dollar’s value priced in gold grammes is declining at an accelerating rate. No amount of speculation will change these facts.
END
CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/287
GFN – HONG KONG: As first reported on Goldfix in 2025, China is building a global network of gold vaults and expanding the infrastructure linking physical bullion to yuan-denominated trade, according to an S&P Global Ratings report cited by the South China Morning Post.
Brics 2025: China Builds Global Gold-Vault Network
May 24, 2025
Housekeeping: We have several posts in the cue on the BRICS Summit. This one is a summary of their agenda as it pertains to next steps towards Gold as a tool of dedollarization and with it internationalizing Yuan use.
The strategy centers on making the renminbi more useful outside China by giving holders greater access to gold through Hong Kong and, potentially, a broader network of international vaults. S&P said the effort could strengthen the yuan’s role in cross-border trade by providing an additional form of convertibility into an asset that is widely accepted and traded globally.
“But if that renminbi is convertible to gold, then that’s a potentially different picture. Gold is tradeable. It is usable in a lot of places.”
Charles Chang, S&P Global Ratings’ Greater China country lead for corporates, said one of the persistent questions facing companies that accept renminbi is what they can ultimately do with the currency. Connecting yuan transactions more directly to gold could help address that issue.
Mainland China launched its first offshore gold delivery vault in Hong Kong last year under an agreement with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, with Bank of China (Hong Kong) serving as the designated operator. At the same time, the SGE introduced two yuan-denominated gold contracts that can be settled either through physical delivery or in cash.
S&P said China is considering extending the vault network to major gold and financial centers including Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Dubai, Riyadh and Moscow.
“The network offers connectivity to the world’s largest physical gold market.”
Chang said the infrastructure could also appeal to governments seeking greater control over their bullion reserves by storing gold domestically or closer to home.
“It could also attract countries looking to diversify, onshore or nearshore their gold storage to enhance control.”
The initiative comes as China continues to increase its official gold reserves. Holdings reached 76.08 million ounces at the end of July, marking the 21st consecutive month of reported accumulation. S&P said China remains relatively underweight gold as a share of total reserves, leaving room for additional purchases or increased domestic production.
China Builds a Gold-Backed Global Network for the Yuan
Aug 25
Fifteen months ago GoldFix wrote an extended suite of articles covering the 2025 BRICS summit in May of that year. In those articles we uncovered the China masterplan for Gold vaults and the end game of Yuan internationalization that was intended to come from it. Here is the main article:
Beijing has also elevated gold’s strategic importance. In 2025, authorities reclassified gold from a financial asset to a “strategic mineral,” while several government agencies introduced plans aimed at strengthening the industry’s security, production capacity, technology, scale and resource base.
That policy shift is expected to benefit Chinese miners including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold Mining, which S&P expects to expand faster than many international competitors.
Taken together, the vault expansion, yuan-denominated gold contracts, continuing reserve accumulation and support for domestic miners point to a broader Chinese effort to connect its currency more closely with the physical gold market as Beijing seeks a larger role for the yuan in global trade.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.39 PTS OR 0.11%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 13.26 PTS OR 0.05%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 253.02 PTS OR 0.38%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.46%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.7207
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7210 Oil UP TO 82.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 88.01 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.7207 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.7210 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7207
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.7210
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 13.26 PTS OR 0.05%
2. Nikkei closed UP 253.02 PTS OR 0.38%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 82.92
BRENT; 88.01
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP 3 BASIS PTS TO 99.12// EURO FALLS TO 1.1647 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISE TO. +2.920 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 159.55… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.119 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN (6.7207) AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.7210
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.2664/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 4.098/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.715%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.9414%
3j Gold at $4612.00/Silver at: 70.72 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 47/ 100 roubles/85.49
3m oil (WTI) into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 88 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 159.55 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.920% UP 3 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 4.119 UP 5 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8045 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9370
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.6820 UP 1 BASIS PTS…DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.203 UP 1 BASIS PTS/REFUSES TO GO DOWN WITH BESSENT’S QE TWIST
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.230 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.25 UP 11 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.0545 UP 2 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.7850 UP 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.712 UP 6 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.305 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Flat, Bonds Drop Ahead Of Warsh Jackson Hole Speech
Friday, Aug 28, 2026 – 08:52 AM
US stock futures are flat and rates rise ahead of today’s main event: Fed chief Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech at 10am ET (full preview here) as traders seek clarity on his economic outlook and his strategy for lowering inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are little changed and Nasdaq 100 futures are lower following the Nvidia-driven rally for the index in the prior session, when however only 30% of the S&P and 1 of 11 sectors closed green as the index continues to be carried by a handful of AI names while the median stock goes nowhere. Pre-market, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher led by TSLA (+0.6%) and AMZN (+0.3%); NVDA is the laggard (-0.5%). PayPal slumped 16% in premarket trading after Advent and Stripe abandoned their pursuit of the firm. Overnight, headlines were largely quiet with WTI dropping further as the Iran conflict remains quiet. Bond yields are 1-2bps higher (10Y 4.69% and 3Y rates up two basis points to 5.21%) while the dollar and gold barely budged. Brent crude fluctuated. Copper headed for a ninth weekly gain, the longest run since 2020. USD is flat. Commodities are all modestly higher across base metals, precious metals (silver +1.5%) and ags. Today’s US economic data calendar includes August MNI Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m. New York time, several minutes earlier for subscribers), August final University of Michigan sentiment (10 a.m.) and August Kansas City Fed services activity (11 a.m.).
In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mostly higher: Tesla +0.4%, Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.4%, Meta +0.2%, Apple +0.2%, Microsoft -0.3%, Nvidia -0.3%
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) climbs 13% after the financial technology company forecast revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Also, the company and Shopify expanded their global partnership to launch Shop Pay Installments in Australia.
Autodesk (ADSK) falls 4% as the application software company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Citi notes that the company’s sales growth looks to be moderating in the second half of the year.
Elastic (ESTC) rises 18% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year and posted guidance that beat the average analyst estimate.
Gap (GAP) gains 14% after the apparel retailer named Michael Francis as head of Old Navy and profit outpaced estimates, offsetting a sales decline at the value chain and lower sales guidance.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) reported second-quarter results that modestly beat expectations and gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus. However, shares of the chipmaker are down 7%; the stock had soared more than 180% this year, as of its Thursday close.
PayPal (PYPL) falls 17% as people familiar with the matter say that a consortium of buyout firm Advent and payment processor Stripe has decided to abandon its pursuit of the fintech pioneer.
SentinelOne (S) falls 3% as the cybersecurity platform’s forecast for fiscal-year adjusted EPS trails the average estimate.
Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) rises 15% after the company and Element Solutions mutually agreed to terminate their merger pact.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) falls about 1% as higher discounts and promotions weighed on the cosmetics retailer’s margins. Analysts said gross margins were underwhelming but noted guidance could be conservative.
In other corporate news Gap jumped in premarket trading after naming a retail industry veteran as head of Old Navy and reporting profit above estimates, offsetting a sales decline at the value chain and lower sales guidance. Tencent released a foundation model it says outperforms rivals Z.AI and Moonshot AI in internal tests. The UAE has given SpaceX’s Starlink a 10-year general satellite services license. Fox responded to a Reuters report that Rupert Murdoch and Lachlan Murdoch are considering a recombination of Fox and News Corp., saying there have been no discussions on the topic since consideration of a possible merger in 2022. Element Solutions and Solstice Advanced Materials mutually agreed to terminate their merger pact.
As described in our Jackson Hole preview (here) Warsh’s address, scheduled for 10 a.m. New York time, is shaping up as a crucial moment for markets as doubts about his commitment to taming inflation have helped push up long-term yields. A divided policy committee and the Treasury’s bond market intervention are further complicating the backdrop.
“Investors are reluctant to increase their exposure just hours before Kevin Warsh’s speech,” said Nabil Milali at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “His recent comments have been so vague that no one knows what to expect today, with some investors anticipating a very hawkish message and others expecting the exact opposite.”
Warsh’s speech could flatten the US yield curve, bolster risk appetite and support the dollar, if he gets it right, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett. “What investors want to see is the framework that the Fed is using to think about the economy to allow markets to better assess incoming data,” said Hugh Gimber, global markets strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “That’s the piece that’s been missing at the moment.”
Goldman rates trader George Cole made the following notable remarks ahead of J-Hole:
Obviously the speech is very interesting in the context of the buyback announcement, the Druckenmiller op-ed, and the July meeting, which was a head-scratcher. He seemed to endorse the idea that higher long-end yields were a reflection of the market finally standing on its own feet and getting some vol back after years of central bank repression. I think that’s a somewhat false narrative, but that was the story he gave us — only for Bessent to say the market doesn’t understand the fundamentals, has the price wrong. Philosophically, you can’t claim to want an unpolluted read of market pricing while bullying that same market. So we’d be surprised if he re-runs the July script and celebrates the move higher in long-end yields.
What we’re looking for instead is something vol-reducing: marginally hawkish near term, but fundamentally calming. The market isn’t worried about the Fed’s stance — it’s confused about what the Fed is actually doing.
Three things would help: 1) a clear statement that the policy rate, not long-end yields, is the main transmission mechanism; 2) an acknowledgement that recent data has been encouraging and reaffirms recent FOMC decisions — not forward guidance, but evidence the Fed is reading the data in a familiar, sensible way; and 3) a recommitment to price stability that sounds a bit more like June.
The speech will be more significant for foreign-exchange, gold and bond markets than for equities, said Ulrich Urbahn at Berenberg. History suggests a similar response, with the S&P 500 gaining just 0.4% on average in the week following the gathering, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “A firm message on inflation, fiscal credibility or the need to preserve restrictive policy would tend to lift real and nominal long-end yields, support the dollar and pressure duration-sensitive assets,” Urbahn said.
Bloomberg’s Editorial Board writes that investors demanding clear answers to their many questions from his speech are almost certain to come away disappointed.
“Warsh can and should try to dispel some of the doubts that have arisen since his appointment began in May. But it’ll be a while before he can provide a definitive account of his preferred approach to monetary policy. Having commissioned five task forces of eminent experts to offer advice, he has little choice but to wait until they’ve reported back and he and his colleagues have discussed the findings.” – Bloomberg Editorial
What can’t wait, though, is a commitment to investors that the Fed will freely explain the rationale for its actions going forward. To put it more bluntly, Warsh needs to say: “Message received.”
Elsewhere, Citadel Securities posted a record $7.3 billion of trading revenue for the second quarter, more than triple on a year earlier. A US judge ruled that the Trump administration must lift its ban on Anthropic’s AI technology for federal agencies.
The flood of debt financing for AI capex is causing “indigestion” in fixed-income markets and fueling yields, but that dynamic should result in decent longer-term returns for investors, according to Pimco. Meanwhile, BCA Research chief economist Peter Berezin highlights that hyperscaler depreciation expense is set to jump to over $500 billion by 2030, equal to the expected operating profits of all five companies in 2026.
In other assets, oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, according to Goldman Sachs. Copper edged closer to a record high, with three-month futures trading above $14,300 a ton in London, on track for a ninth weekly gain, the longest such run since 2020.
In geopolitics, the US is in talks with Venezuela to take a large stake in its oil fields, which would extend the Trump administration’s influence on the post-Maduro government and the nation’s vast energy reserves. Iran said putting US diplomacy back on track “isn’t impossible.”
The Stoxx 600 is up by 0.5% in a broad rally in European equities, and set for a fifth straight monthly advance ahead of speeches by central bankers at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Consumer, autos and chemicals sectors are the best performers. Media and real estate are among the few decliners. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:
BMW rises as much as 2.4% and Forvia gains as much as 4.9% as Citi places the stocks on positive watches, saying there may be some room for relief from current low levels as the automotive sector continues to face structural challenges.
Ackermans shares rise as much as 8.5% as KBC Securities says the investment company had “closed a solid first half.”
Interparfums shares gain as much as 5.4% as Oddo BHF raises its recommendation on the French firm to outperform from neutral, saying new products should boost revenue.
Hays gains as much as 6.2% as Panmure Liberum upgrades to buy, boosts its price target to a Street-high and says “for the first time in a long time” there is asymmetric risk profile to the upside on estimates.
Strabag shares rise as much as 12% after the Austrian construction company boosted its Ebit margin forecast for the full year.
Recticel gains as much as 6.7% with KBC Securities saying the insulation product manufacturer exceeded first-half consensus adjusted Ebitda expectations by 9%.
Goodwin shares rally as much as 13% after the engineering company reported record profits in the last financial year and announced plans to return a “substantial part” of any proceeds from selling its Mechanical Engineering division to shareholders.
Sivers Semiconductors fall as much as 22% after the Swedish electrical component manufacturer reported second-quarter earnings which included a drop in net sales and accelerating operating losses. Shares are still up over 600% year to date.
Boozt falls as much as 8.5% after an offering of shares by holder Ferd prices at SEK145/share, a 7.05% discount to Thursday’s close.
Asian stocks edged higher, with cyclical sectors among the top gainers, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole later today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.2% after rising as much as 0.6%. Financials, industrials and materials were among the best-performing sectors on the gauge. Meanwhile, a subgauge of tech shares gave up early gains spurred by optimism over Nvidia’s strong outlook. The MSCI Asia gauge was up 0.4% for the week, on track for a fifth weekly gain in six. The regional benchmark is up 3.1% so far in August, poised for its first monthly increase since May. Still, sentiment remains fragile amid continued concerns over Big Tech spending, geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices.
“Despite the strong performance of US stock indices yesterday, we saw this morning that risk appetite remained limited in Asian markets, mainly because investors are reluctant to increase their exposure just hours before Warsh’s speech,” said Nabil Milali, a portfolio manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “His recent comments have been so vague that no one knows what to expect today, with some investors anticipating a very hawkish message and others expecting the exact opposite.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed; the yen led losses among major currencies, moving closer to 160 against the dollar and heading for its lowest level since the coordinated US-Japan intervention at the end of July. Japan spent a record $96.4 billion over the past month to support the currency, according to data released by the Finance Ministry on Friday.
In rates, treasuries are mostly muted as investors await Warsh’s Jackson Hole address, and hold small losses, lifting yields by about 1bp inside this week’s ranges, with Warsh holding the potential to alter market pricing for a single quarter-point interest-rate increase by year-end and high likelihood of a second by mid-2027. 10-year yield is about 2bps higher on the day near 4.69%, outperforming UK and German counterparts.Yield-curve flattening trend unleashed by last week’s Treasury Department decision to expand buybacks targeting 10- to 30-year sectors has stalled.5s30 spread, about 1bp wider near 80bp, fell below 79bp Thursday to the lowest level since July 29, most recent Federal Reserve decision date, while 2s10s, more than 1bp steeper near 45bp, breached 43bp, lowest since Aug. 7. IG credit new-issue calendar is anticipated to be light through month-end; activity ground to a halt Thursday.
In commodities, oil prices lower with Brent hovering around $89/barrel and WTI around $83, while gold is holding close to $4,600/oz and silver is rallying. Bitcoin is trading below $80,000.
Today’s US economic data calendar includes August MNI Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m. New York time, several minutes earlier for subscribers), August final University of Michigan sentiment (10 a.m.) and August Kansas City Fed services activity (11 a.m.). Fed speaker slate also includes Cleveland Fed’s Hammack at 9 a.m. and Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee at 12:40 p.m.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
The top US commander for the Middle East said that American forces have cleared Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz, after Washington’s allies expressed doubts about similar claims by President Donald Trump.
Qatar’s prime minister visited Tehran on Thursday in an effort to revive stalled diplomacy six months into the war, as U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was not currently talking to Iran. RTRS
Venezuela is considering whether it should quit OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially delivering a fresh blow to the oil cartel it helped create more than six decades ago. BBG
Jackson Hole Preview: Warsh to speak at 10am & GS econ expects him to reiterate his commitment to the 2% inflation target, expand on the rationale behind his approach to Fed communication and offer thoughts on some bigger picture topics such as productivity growth or shocks to the global economy that he alluded to at his last press conference. He’s likely to acknowledge the better recent inflation news but is unlikely to provide any policy guidance. Full Preview here
Howard Lutnick accused Canada of scuttling trade talks by adding last-minute demands, saying PM Mark Carney had political incentives to kill an emerging deal. BBG
A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order that prevents the Postal Service from inserting itself into the election process while litigation continues: NBC
Nippon Life Insurance Co., Japan’s largest life insurer, said it is open to becoming a net buyer of government bonds next fiscal year as it finds current interest rates attractive. BBG
Japan spent a record $96.4 billion over the past month to support the yen, underscoring the authorities’ willingness to deploy increasingly aggressive tactics to put a floor under the currency. BBG
Tokyo’s key inflation gauge accelerated for a third month even as the government took steps to reduce energy costs, bolstering the case for another Bank of Japan interest-rate increase as market expectations mount for a move in September. RTRS
Spanish inflation surged to 4.5% in August, more than double the ECB’s target, while France’s 2.7% reading exceeded expectations, strengthening the case for a rate increase next month. BBG
US President Trump’s administration is mulling a 500mln gallon boost to 2027 biofuel quotas to offset exemptions
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped following the varied performance stateside, where all indices rose and the Nasdaq outperformed post-NVIDIA earnings, but almost all sectors were in the red aside from tech, while the attention turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Warsh’s keynote speech. ASX 200 was higher with notable outperformance in tech, although consumer stocks and real estate lagged amid the recent increased bets for the RBA to resume its hiking cycle next month. Nikkei 225 rallied as participants digested the latest data releases, including a surprise decline in the Unemployment Rate, while Tokyo CPI matched estimates, with the Core reading remaining beneath the 2% goal. KOSPI bucked the trend amid weakness in South Korean tech giants despite the sector doing much of the heavy lifting across global markets, while there was a report that SK Hynix lagged rivals in NAND process-node transitions, with slower upgrades and reduced NAND capex eroding its cost competitiveness and market share. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat but with the upside limited amid a slew of earnings releases and with participants also bracing for results from Chinese big banks.
Top Asian News
S&P affirmed China at A+; Outlook Stable. Said a stable outlook on long term rating reflects the view that China will provide larger fiscal support to keep the economy growing at around 4% over the next two years.
China’s Ministry of Finance said the country will implement proactive macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year; long term positive fundamentals remain unchanged.
European bourses are entirely in the green, with the CAC 40 the clear outperformer as it rebounds from yesterday’s downside. The main driver of Thursday’s losses was the presidential debate that took place between candidates. The key focus was on how the candidates would approach France’s debt problem; no consensus was agreed on the stage on how to solve the problem, but suggestions ranged from waiving interest payments on ECB-owned debt to cutting welfare spending. Overall, Politico says no candidate pulled off a clear winner and that the presidential race remains open. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Consumer Products & Services top the sector pile, with Autos and Chemicals rounding out the top 3 performers. To the downside is Media, followed by Real Estate and Retail. Key movers include: UK defence names, FT reported that Chancellor Healey will shelve its defence spending target at October’s budget; EssilorLuxottica (+3.3%), announces share buybacks of up to 5mln shares; Strabag (+10.7%), H1 revenue beat and raises its FY26 guidance; Siemens (+1.5%), upgraded to buy at Erste.
Top European News
UK Chancellor Healey will reportedly shelve defence spending target when presenting October budget, the FT reported.
FX
G10s lack a bias ahead of the Warsh Jackson Hole speech with **most currencies flat vs the USD. **
DXY ekes modest gains after surpassing the 200DMA of 99.16 ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s speech. Performance across majors is lacklustre with most currencies weaker, albeit small in magnitude.
Into the speech, some analysts have suggested that the market could again be left disappointed; Saxo Bank says the title of the forum suggests that Warsh will deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing rather than the Fed’s thoughts on interest rates – Previous Fed chairs have used the forum to signal upcoming policy actions. However, Warsh has begun his term with a bias against issuing any forward guidance, and has made the case that such guidance can shackle officials to their earlier forecasts, and his approach of little guidance will allow markets to interpret the data themselves.
MUFG says the closest historical comparisons to today’s speech are “probably 2008 or 2016” given the level of uncertainty, which both garnered 0.7% move in EUR/USD – FX options price a 46pip move in EUR/USD today, lower than the historicals that MUFG refers to.
While OATs saw some weakness at the open, EUR was steady throughout the French Presidential debate. Focus now shifts to Fitch’s rating on France this evening, seen unchanged, and the Socialist party which are set to unveil demands for France’s 2027 budget over the weekend. EUR/USD likely at the whim of the Buck into the highly anticipated Warsh speech, 200DMA c. 10 pips below will likely support the pair for the moment.
GBP/USD is flat but off worst levels after finding support at 1.3580. A couple updates on the domestic political front. The FT reported UK Chancellor Healey will shelve defence spending targets when presenting the October budget, a move which could save as much as GBP 10bln/year, based on OBR forecasts. It was separately reported that there could be potential modifications to council taxes, though no GBP move was seen on this report.
Fixed Income
Fixed benchmarks are under very mild pressure this morning, but with price action ultimately muted ahead of the day’s key risk events. USTs (-2 ticks) trade within a narrow 108-16 to 108-20 range, whilst Bunds (-21 ticks) and Gilts (-29 ticks) are hampered by elevated gas prices.
USTs are trading in an exceptionally thin range this morning as attention remains on two key risk events. Firstly, Fed Chair Warsh is set to speak at 15:00 BST (10:00 EDT). Whether he touches on monetary policy remains to be seen, but even if he doesn’t, there is a risk markets will begin to price in credibility woes once again. At the same time as Warsh, the BLS will release the annual NFP benchmark revision; consensus sees a revision of +200k.
Over in Europe, EGBs and Gilts have been subject to a few days in the red, as gas prices remain elevated. A lot of that pressure is attributed to fears surrounding low gas storage, and recent punchy rhetoric out of Russia has also not helped the mood.
For France specifically, OATs have had the first Presidential debate to digest. Ultimately, there was no clear victor, but the confab made evident the stark contrast in views held between parties. This can be evidenced in the 10yr OAT/Bund spread, which remains near recent highs at 85bps, but ultimately fairly stable today.
OATs (-15 ticks) are faring a touch better vs peers this morning, potentially as leading candidate Le Pen provided further colour on how she would solve France’s debt problem. She noted that spending needed to be cut, arguing that France should not commit more than EUR 5bln to the EU (vs ~EUR 29bln in 2026). She said she would present a EUR 125bln cost-cutting plan before the next budget debate, which will only happen once PM Lecornu submits the 2027 budget bill (end-Sept).
Italy sells EUR 6.5bln vs exp. EUR 5.75-6.5bln 3.15% 2031, 4.00% 2036 BTP and EUR 2bln vs. EUR 1.5-2bln 1.773% 2034, 1.645% 2035 CCTeu.
Japan sells JPY 2.15tln 2-year JGBs: b/c 2.97x (prev. 3.63x), average yield 1.708% (prev. 1.483%), Tail in price 0.034 (prev. 0.007).
Australia sells AUD 800mln 4.25% December 2035 Bonds: b/c 3.88x, avg. yield 5.0539%.
Commodities
Geopolitical updates have lacked anything tangible, even though rhetoric has been hawkish. US President Trump dismissed immediate negotiations and suggested sanctions and the Hormuz blockade are putting Tehran under severe strain. Washington says the Strait of Hormuz has been cleared of mines and shipping lanes reopened, while Treasury Secretary Bessent is pushing G20 countries to cut Iranian and IRGC revenue flows. Iran, meanwhile, says it is preparing conditions for reopening the Strait, has agreed on a potential corridor with Oman, and warns it could strike US military and economic interests if pressure continues. Despite mediation efforts by Oman and Qatar, the US says no negotiations are currently planned and does not recognise the reported Iran-Oman arrangement.
Nonetheless, amid the lack of a notable escalation, WTI and Brent futures are subdued intraday, with the former in a USD 82.54-83.78/bbl range and the latter in a USD 87.60-88.61/bbl range. Participants, as usual, are eyeing any tangible updates on escalations/de-escalations. Dutch TTF, conversely, is firmer by around 2.2% at EUR 69.79/MWh, continuing to be buoyed by supply concerns as Europe replenishes winter stock. Note that the contract briefly notched the EUR 70/MWh mark.
Precious metals are firmer despite a resilient USD against the backdrop of softer oil prices, but following two sessions of weakness. Spot gold resides towards the top of a narrow USD 4,571-4,614/oz range within yesterday’s band between USD 4,564-4,643/oz. Spot silver gains after finding a comfortable footing above its 100 DMA (USD 68.19/oz), with the precious metal back on a USD 70/oz handle in a USD 68.44-70.95/oz range.
Base metals mostly eke mild gains despite DXY remaining resilient, and with downside capped amid expectations for near-term Chinese stimulus. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 14,277.65-14,345.00/t range at the time of writing.
Venezuela is reportedly mulling leaving OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter.
Saudi Aramco reportedly sold around 4mln barrels of Arab Medium and Heavy crudes to Chinese refiners for loading in September at locations just outside Hormuz, Bloomberg reported.
Chinese State Planner is to raise domestic gasoline prices by CNY 375/t and diesel by CNY 360/t.
Kazakhstan has restored oil production to normal levels, which were previously reduced due to the attacks on the CPC, according to Interfax.
Qatar Energy extended the LNG force majeure to Edison (EDNR IM) until November 4th.
Global Aluminium producer is seeking a premium of USD 310/t for October-December 2026 in talks with Japan (-22% Q/Q), according to source reports.
Ukraine’s agriculture minister said the country’s winter wheat planting area is expected to decline in 2027.
Trade/Tariffs
Canada’s ambassador to Washington said Canada cannot accept a US trade deal unless it ensures survival of robust Canadian auto assembly and parts industry, while he stated that Canada’s removal of tariffs on US seafood was done more for technical reasons than as a sign of a quick resumption of negotiations.
Central Banks
ECB’s Kazaks said that inflation must not be allowed to take root.
Poll shows 27 out of 31 economists expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR by 25bps to 2.75% at next week’s meeting, while more than two thirds of economists at least one more rate hike after September to lift the OCR to 3.00% or above by year-end
Geopolitics: Iran
Two regional sources told Axios that in recent days Iran has shown renewed interest in negotiations, Axios reported.
US President Trump posted that “Iran Is a Failing Nation!”, while he separately commented “I don’t want to meet, they do. In fact, they are begging to make a deal”.
US Central Command Commander Cooper said the US military successfully cleared sea mines laid in Strait of Hormuz and international shipping lanes are open.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said discussions with Qatar’s PM and foreign minister showed diplomacy could be restored, but argued that the US must abandon pressure, build trust, respect Iran’s rights, and honour its commitments.
Iran’s Parliament Member Kawsari said “Any agreement with Oman is subject to the lifting of the naval blockade.” US messages have reached through Qatar, Oman and Pakistan, but Iran will only enter the operational phase after implementing several paragraphs.
Yemeni sources reported that Saudi artillery targeted residential villages in the Al-Thabit area of Qatabar, Saada Province, Yemen, Nour News reported.
Geopolitics: Ukraine/China
Ukraine’s Military said it struck an oil refinery in Yaroslavl, Russia.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan will respond calmly and appropriately to relations with China and will keep dialogue open.
US Event Calendar
9:45 am: United States Aug MNI Chicago PMI, est. 57.9, prior 57.6
10:00 am: United States Aug F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 51, prior 51
Central Banks
9:00 am: Fed’s Hammack on BTV
10:00 am: Fed’s Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium
12:40 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CNBC
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets put in a very mixed performance yesterday, as investors grappled with several competing trends. On the upside, Nvidia’s results led to renewed optimism around AI, and the resulting bounce in tech stocks pushed the S&P 500 (+0.72%) to its best day in three weeks. But apart from the tech rally there were consistent losses, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.69%) had its worst day in a month thanks to a fresh rise in energy prices, alongside a notable underperformance for French banks. So the mood was more downbeat than the headline numbers suggested, with over two-thirds of the S&P 500 still lower on the day, and long-end bond yields creeping higher.
Before we get on to that however, the market focus today will be on the Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Warsh is speaking at 3pm London time. This is a significant one, as the speech is often used by Fed Chairs to make big announcements or send policy signals. Indeed, last year saw former Chair Powell acknowledge “the shifting balance of risks”, which set the stage for rate cuts to resume the following month. And with market pricing for the September Fed meeting still in the balance (35% chance of a hike), today’s speech is particularly important.
This year, we don’t know what Warsh is going to talk about, but he said in July that he was undecided “whether it’s going to be a big-picture speech or whether it’s going to be a more traditional set up for all the action we’re going to have between September and December”. So that leaves him a few options for today. According to our US economists, they think that a “big-picture” speech could include a discussion of the Fed’s taskforces, or potentially on AI’s economic impact. Alternatively, the “more traditional” speech might see Warsh do a “cleanup” of the July press conference, and he may wish to counter one market narrative that Fed policy actions could be delayed until the task forces have completed their work. See their full preview (link here) for more details.
With all that to look forward to, we actually heard from several Fed speakers yesterday, which demonstrated the current divide on policy. Some suggested that more restrictive policy was required, including Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who voted for a hike last time. She reiterated that “I think it’s appropriate for us to put some restraint there to help bring inflation back down to target”. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid (a non-voter this year) said “I would probably put myself in that camp” of colleagues who dissented. But Boston Fed President Collins said that “I continue to see rates as mildly restrictive”. And Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he wanted “evidence that this inflation shock is not going to be persistent”, but he also said “I’m OK with waiting as we’re getting that.”
Against that backdrop, bond yields crept up a bit yesterday, although that had more to do with the rise in oil and gas prices than the Fed commentary. So Treasury yields saw moderate increases across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+2.2bps) up to 4.23%, the 10yr yield (+2.9bps) up to 4.68%, and the 30yr yield (+2.6bps) up to 5.19%. And similarly in Europe, the 10yr bund yield (+1.9bps) closed at 3.25%, less than a basis point beneath its post-2011 high from last week, with 10yr OAT yields (+1.5bps) and BTP yields (+2.0bps) also higher.
Yet even as the bond story was fairly consistent yesterday, equities saw an incredible divergence on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, the primary driver was Nvidia’s earnings the previous day, with their share price up +8.74% in response. Indeed, it was Nvidia’s best daily performance after an earnings release since May 2024, and it makes a change from the previous 4 quarterly results, when Nvidia fell the following day. Meanwhile, the optimism around AI helped other tech stocks more broadly, with the NASDAQ up +1.57%, whilst the S&P 500 (+0.72%) closed back within 1% of its record high.
However, the strength in tech masked plenty of equity weakness elsewhere. In fact, over two-thirds of the S&P 500’s constituents fell yesterday, with every major sector group falling except information technology (+3.40%), and the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell -0.29%. Meanwhile in Europe, the story was also pretty weak thanks to the latest rise in energy prices, which raised concerns about faster inflation. So the STOXX 600 (-0.69%) saw its worst performance in a month, and there was a particular underperformance for France’s CAC 40 (-1.68%). That came as multiple French banks fell back, with BNP Paribas (-4.79%), Crédit Agricole (-3.97%) and Société Générale (-4.99%) all lower. Those declines came ahead of a French presidential debate yesterday evening that was dominated by the country’s rising public debt.
Otherwise, the generally downbeat mood yesterday wasn’t helped by the latest rise in oil and gas prices, which added to fears about inflationary pressures. For instance, Brent crude was up +2.12% to close at $89.70/bbl, ending a run of 3 consecutive declines. That came as there were still few signs of progress to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a Fox News interview that “No negotiations are happening right now, and this will continue until the president feels that maybe they come to the table in a meaningful way”. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that the Trump administration told mediators it has no interest in returning to the terms of the memorandum of understanding agreed in June.
Overnight in Asia, bond yields have continued to move higher, which follows weaker demand for a 2yr auction in Japan. So this morning we’ve seen Japan’s 2yr yield (+2.0bps) rise to 1.70%, its highest since 1995. That also follows the latest Tokyo CPI print for August, but that was as expected, with headline CPI rising a tenth to +1.9%. Nevertheless, yields have also risen elsewhere, with Australia’s 10yr yield (+2.6bps) up to a post-2011 high of 5.12%, whilst the 10yr US Treasury yield is up another +0.6bps this morning to 4.68%.
Meanwhile for equities, we’ve also seen a mixed performance overnight. That includes a decent decline for the KOSPI (-1.24%), and the CSI 300 (-0.10%) has also lost ground. However, several other indices have made decent gains, including the Nikkei (+0.75%) and the Hang Seng (+0.47%), alongside a modest advance for the Shanghai Comp (+0.08%). Looking forward, US equity futures are little changed however, with those on the S&P 500 down just -0.04%.
Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, but the US weekly initial jobless claims were better than expected, falling to just 203k in the week ending August 22 (vs. 208k expected). Otherwise, the US merchandise trade deficit widened to $118.8bn in July (vs. $100.5bn expected), which is the biggest it’s been since March 2025.
Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Hammack and the ECB’s Schnabel. Then on the data side, we’ll get the flash CPI prints for August from France and Spain, German unemployment for August and Canada’s Q2 GDP. And in the US, we’ll also get the MNI Chicago PMI for August, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for August.
1b European opening report
1 c Asian opening report
Europe primed for a firmer open after similar APAC gains into Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Friday, Aug 28, 2026 – 02:39 AM
US President Trump’s administration has repeatedly told mediators it has no interest in going back to the terms of the MoU it reached with Iran in June, WSJ sources said.
Any agreements concluded between Iran and Oman are of no importance to the US, and there are no ongoing or scheduled negotiations with Iran, according to a US source cited by Al Jazeera.
Chinese executives may join Chinese President Xi’s US trip, as a trade truce extension is almost certain, according to SCMP.
APAC stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped following the varied performance stateside; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.
Looking ahead, highlights include French/Spanish Prelim CPI (Aug), German Unemployment Rate (Aug), Canadian GDP (Jul), US Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prelim, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27th-29th). Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh and ECB’s Schnabel. Supply from Italy. Credit Ratings including Fitch on France, Moody’s on Switzerland, S&P on Portugal, and Morningstar DBRS on the Netherlands.
Highlights include French/Spanish Prelim CPI (Aug), German Unemployment Rate (Aug), Canadian GDP (Jul), US Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prelim, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27th-29th). Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh and ECB’s Schnabel. Supply from Italy. Credit Ratings including Fitch on France, Moody’s on Switzerland, S&P on Portugal and Morningstar DBRS on the Netherlands.
US President Trump posted that “Iran Is a Failing Nation!”, while he separately commented “I don’t want to meet, they do. In fact, they are begging to make a deal”.
US President Trump said they took 24 boats through Hormuz on Wednesday night, while he added Iran is in big trouble and is not paying its troops. Trump also said regarding pressuring Russian President Putin for Iran business, “who says I’m not?”, as well as stated that millions of barrels of oil are coming through Hormuz daily.
US President Trump’s administration has repeatedly told mediators it has no interest in going back to the terms of the MoU it reached with Iran in June, while Trump is willing to wait and see if squeezing Iran economically bears fruit, according to WSJ sources.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent will directly ask ministers at the G20 to sever economic leakage that sustains the Iranian regime and the IRGC, according to FBN. He will discuss Iran-related activity Treasury has identified in specific nations and make clear that the US will be uncompromising in targeting any source of the regime’s illicit revenue, while Bessent is scheduled to have nearly a dozen bilateral meetings with various foreign finance leaders where he will raise this directly with them.
US Central Command Commander Cooper says US military successfully cleared sea mines laid in the Strait of Hormuz and international shipping lanes are open, while it was also claimed that Iran has not exported a single barrel of oil since the start of the naval blockade.
US Navy is facing a severe financial crisis as the ongoing war with Iran forces the service to divert funds from payroll and maintenance accounts to cover combat operations, according to The Guardian sources.
Any agreements concluded between Iran and Oman are of no importance to the US, and there are no ongoing or scheduled negotiations with Iran, while the naval blockade remains fully in place and the Strait is open and cleared of all mines, according to a US source cited by Al Jazeera.
Iran’s top security official Rezaei warned Iran would strike US military and economic interests if the US starts “mischief” against Iran during a meeting with the Qatari Foreign Minister. He also said that the US must take practical steps to meet Iran’s conditions before Iran moves to reopen the Strait, while adding that Iran should not trust the US as it has repeatedly betrayed diplomacy and negotiations.
Iran-Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz is said to not matter as President Trump controls the blockade, according to NY Post citing a US official, while the deal, which an IRGC spokesman claimed was reached on Wednesday, remains subject to internal approval in Iran and lacks US recognition.
Iran’s security chief Rezaei said mediators asked Iran for its conditions to open Hormuz and Tehran is preparing a list, while they have agreed to a corridor with Oman, part of which lies in Omani waters and some in Iranian waters. Furthermore, he said Iran exported 80mln barrels of oil during the ceasefire and will target US economic interests if the blockade continues. Rezaei also commented that Dahiyeh and Beirut are their red lines, and that a possible war is different from previous wars.
Qatar’s PM said the talks in Tehran reaffirmed continuing efforts to de-escalate and promote regional security and stability.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were somewhat varied as all major indices closed higher on Thursday with gains led by Nvidia (NVDA) following strong earnings, including robust data centre revenue and upbeat long-term guidance. However, advances were far from broad-based, as the equal-weight S&P closed lower and every sector finished in the red aside from Technology, which rallied around 3%.
SPX +0.72% at 7,731, NDX +1.43% at 29,642, DJI +0.20% at 53,574, RUT +0.28% at 3,014.
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Canadian PM Carney walked away from trade talks for political reasons and he expects Canada to want to talk after separatist votes.
Canada added 50% tariffs to US copper wire and wood charcoal.
Canada’s ambassador to Washington said Canada cannot accept a US trade deal unless it ensures survival of robust Canadian auto assembly and parts industry, while he stated that Canada’s removal of tariffs on US seafood was done more for technical reasons than as a sign of a quick resumption of negotiations.
Chinese executives may join Chinese President Xi’s US trip, as a trade truce extension is almost certain, according to SCMP.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter, hawkish dissenter) said the job market is broadly in balance and the latest inflation data is in line with expectations. She also said that policy needs to be restricted and expects slow progress on inflation, which she sees ending the year around 3%. Furthermore, she said inflation might ease to around 2.5% at best next year and stated she goes into every meeting with an open mind and is open-minded about the cadence of Fed meeting schedules.
Fed’s Collins (2028 voter) said the recent PCE report did not change the modal outlook that current monetary policy is restrictive and will likely lead to a gradual disinflation, while she added that recent inflation data is mixed, with the headline figure stronger than expected but promising signs in the details. Collins separately commented that a rate increase is warranted if inflation disappoints, according to WSJ.
US Treasury official said bond yields are to decline as inflation eases and that the Trump administration aims to reduce long bond yields. The official also commented that the G20 finance meeting will focus on boosting economic growth and cutting global imbalances, while they hope to have a joint communique on boosting growth, reducing global imbalances, tackling sovereign debt challenges and financial literacy.
US President Trump’s administration is pressing Mexico to do more to stop migrants from reaching the US border, with Secretary of State Rubio raising the issue in a private meeting with Mexico’s Foreign Minister.
US banking regulators are narrowing their enforcement and supervision standards to put greater emphasis on material financial risk, according to FT.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped following the varied performance stateside, where all indices rose and the Nasdaq outperformed post-NVIDIA earnings, but almost all sectors were in the red aside from tech, while the attention turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Warsh’s keynote speech.
ASX 200 was higher with notable outperformance in tech, although consumer stocks and real estate lagged amid the recent increased bets for the RBA to resume its hiking cycle next month.
Nikkei 225 rallied as participants digested the latest data releases, including a surprise decline in the Unemployment Rate, while Tokyo CPI matched estimates, with the Core reading remaining beneath the 2% goal.
KOSPI bucked the trend amid weakness in South Korean tech giants despite the sector doing much of the heavy lifting across global markets, while there was a report that SK Hynix lagged rivals in NAND process-node transitions, with slower upgrades and reduced NAND capex eroding its cost competitiveness and market share.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat but with the upside limited amid a slew of earnings releases and with participants also bracing for results from Chinese big banks.
US equity futures were rangebound as all attention turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium.
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Thursday.
FX
DXY was rangebound in quiet FX trade as participants await Fed Chair Warsh’s inaugural Jackson Hole keynote address, and with the Fed Chair seen to be under pressure to clarify his views on interest rates, which he has been tight-lipped about and has refrained from providing explicit forward guidance. Nonetheless, there were recent comments from other Fed officials, but they did little to shift the dial, with hawkish dissenter Hammack stating that policy needs to be restricted and expects slow progress on inflation, while 2028 voter Collins said the recent PCE report did not change the modal outlook and that current monetary policy is restrictive, which will likely lead to a gradual disinflation.
EUR/USD traded little changed with the single currency unmoved by the recent uneventful ECB minutes, which noted that it was argued that a rate increase would not address the underlying cause of the rise in inflation.
GBP/USD struggles for direction in the absence of pertinent catalysts and with resistance at the 1.3600 level.
USD/JPY was choppy at the 159.00 handle with little reaction seen following the in-line Tokyo CPI data.
Antipodeans gradually edged higher amid ongoing rate hike expectations for both the RBA and RBNZ.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7811 vs exp. 6.7208 (prev. 6.7840).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures lacked direction following the recent choppy mood as participants await any clues on interest rate policy from the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Bund futures lingered around this week’s lows beneath the 124.00 level, with participants awaiting German unemployment data and central bank comments from Wyoming, with ECB’s Schnabel to take part in discussions.
10yr JGB futures continued to retreat following the recent hawkish rhetoric from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino, with prices also not helped by the in-line Tokyo inflation data and a weaker 2yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures slightly pulled back overnight after gaining yesterday as the US-Iran conflict continued to show no signs of improvement, as the Trump administration has repeatedly told mediators it has no interest in going back to the terms of the MoU it reached with Iran in June, with Trump willing to wait and see if squeezing Iran economically bears fruit. Furthermore, there were several energy-related headlines, but they did little to spur oil prices, including reports that Venezuela was mulling leaving OPEC.
Venezuela is reportedly mulling leaving OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter.
US Treasury issued a Venezuela General License for Venezuelan oil and petrochemicals, while it authorised oil and gas operations for six specified entities.
US is reportedly close to striking a “massive” deal for Venezuelan oil fields, according to Axios.
US President Trump is expected to convene a meeting with US refiners and fuel retailers next week to highlight efforts to bring down gas prices.
US President Trump reportedly met with Energy, EPA and Agriculture secretaries and discussed pending applications for refiner exemptions from US biofuel laws, according to sources. They also discussed a plan to compensate biofuel producers in future years for any business lost due to refiner exemptions.
US President Trump’s administration is mulling a 500mln gallon boost to 2027 biofuel quotas to offset exemptions, according to sources
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were said to have climbed to around 7mln-8mln bpd from around 4mln bpd in mid-July, easing some global supply concerns. It was also reported that Kuwait and Qatar are to have restored shipments to around 70% of pre-war levels, with shuttle operations helping move more crude to international markets.
Kuwait Petroleum Co. restarted parts of the Al Zour Oil refinery (615k BPD) as of August 19th.
Spot gold trickled lower with the precious metal back beneath the USD 4,600/oz level following recent choppy price action and an ultimately flat dollar as participants await Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
Copper futures traded little changed amid the mixed sentiment seen across risk assets.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin saw two-way price action after failing to sustain an early climb above the USD 81,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japanese PM Takaichi confirmed that a cabinet reshuffle will take place mid-to-late September.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama will join the G20 Finance Ministers’ meeting in North Carolina and will hold discussions on the global economy and international financial conditions with G20 counterparts.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan will respond calmly and appropriately to relations with China and will keep dialogue open.
China’s NDRC spokesperson said robot development must be tailored to local conditions and pursued in a sound and orderly manner, while the spokesperson added that the robot industry must be developed on local resources and industrial advantages, avoiding blindly following trends.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Tokyo CPI (Aug YY) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.8%)
Japanese Tokyo Core CPI (Aug YY) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.7%)
Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (Aug YY) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.0%)
Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jul) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%)
Japanese Jobs/Applications Ratio (Jul) 1.18 vs. Exp. 1.19 (Prev. 1.18)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
US President Trump told Axios in a phone interview on Thursday that he is not concerned that Russia will attack NATO countries. Furthermore, Trump called CIA Director Ratcliffe’s trip “standard business” and expressed puzzlement over media accounts of it, while it was separately reported that Trump said he had good talks with Russian President Putin and that Putin is not attacking NATO territory.
CIA Director Ratcliffe met with Russia’s head of foreign intelligence service in Moscow this week to request that Russia stop sharing intelligence with Iran, according to NBC citing sources.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces hit a tanker in the Izmail Port, according to Interfax.
OTHER
A Dominican cargo ship sank off Romania after a strike, with 12 crew rescued and one injured, while it was still unknown what and who struck the vessel.
US military is reportedly facing a “beyond critical” shortage of Patriot missiles in Europe, largely driven by the Iran war, according to AP sources.
Poland’s Defence Minister said the US will scout for military base locations in the country.
South Korea’s National Security Adviser said South Korea seeks closer cooperation with the US on current issues including investments, Coupang and national security affairs. The adviser also stated that South Korea must not be sidelined in efforts to resume US-North Korea dialogue, and that any US-North Korea dialogue must not lead to weakening of South Korea’s security readiness.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK Chancellor Healey could suffer a hit of several billion pounds to the public finances as lower immigration forecasts dent the outlook for economic growth, according to warnings by analysts cited by FT.
EU’s industrial push strains ties with Switzerland and Norway, with the bloc’s closest partners warning that ‘Made in Europe’ policies risk shutting them out of the single market, according to FT.
ECB’s Kazaks said that inflation must not be allowed to take root.
DATA RECAP
UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Aug) 53 (Prev. 49).
end
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA
JAPAN
3. CHINA/
CHINA/NEPAL/TIBET
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
Britain’s Biggest Council Pushes Two-Year Jail Term For Flying National Flags
Britain’s largest local authority has gone to the High Court to stop people hanging the Union Flag and the St George’s Cross from lampposts, with campaigners warning that a breach could mean up to two years behind bars.
Birmingham City Council filed the application this week as the latest move in a year-long war on “unauthorised attachments.” The attachments in question are the flags of the country. The penalties being threatened include prison, unlimited fines, and seized assets.
Protesters who fly the Union Jack from lampposts could criminal proceedings if the injunction is granted.
A year ago the same city was already ripping the colours down and calling it safety. Residents put them back up. The council has now decided a High Court order is the way to finish the job.
On 26 August the council announced it had submitted an injunction application “as part of our ongoing work to prohibit unauthorised attachments on the highway, including flags and banners.”
Green councillor Jane Baston, cabinet member for equalities, communities and social justice, said: “The Council is taking a lawful, proportionate and evidence-led approach to unauthorised attachments on the highway. This includes pursuing injunctive action based on the evidence gathered to date.”
She added: “Our priority is to protect public safety, staff and contractor welfare, community cohesion and the responsible use of public funds. We ask residents and community groups to support this approach and to ensure any displays are placed only where permission exists.”
The authority insists the action “is not directed at any particular community, belief or viewpoint.” It says the installation and reinstallation of flags has had an impact on the public, and that officers have “witnessed incidents that have involved harassment, intimidation or obstruction during removal activity.”
The named targets give the game away. The application lists Raise the Colours co-founder Ryan Bridge, plus others associated with the campaign. Raise the Colours said it had not received or reviewed the papers and could not comment on the application. The group rejected “any suggestion that we are seeking to divide communities,” and describes itself as a “grassroots movement for unity and patriotism.”
The nationwide campaign by the group to put the England flag back on the street is widely reported to have started in Birmingham last summer. The council spent the following year treating that campaign as a highways nuisance. Now it wants a judge to make the nuisance a city-wide prohibition.
Anti-flag campaigners in the city have been lobbying for exactly this. Brummies United Against Racism and Hate Crime applauded the legal bid, spoke of “thuggish behaviour,” and framed the flags as an attempt to “harass and intimidate residents of our proudly multicultural city.”
So the national flag is an attachment. Opposition to it is cohesion. And a bankrupt council that spent more than a year failing to collect the bins has found the money and the energy to take patriotism to the Royal Courts of Justice.
Birmingham is taking a page from the book of Liberal Democrat-run Oxfordshire County Council, who won the first injunction of its kind, barring unidentified people from attaching England or Union flags to highway structures or painting flag imagery on roads.
Council leader Tim Bearder celebrated. “This is a welcome judgement. We’re very pleased with the result,” he said, adding: “This sets a legal precedent and will hopefully deter people in not just Oxfordshire but around the country from partaking in this criminal activity.”
He described those putting the flags up as “very challenging people, not patriots.”
Oxfordshire spent about £80,000 taking flags down and another £40,000 on lawyers, costs it said it intended to recover. Staff removing flags were said to have faced hostility so serious that some were told to wear face coverings and check vehicles for tracking devices after a worker’s home address was published.
The judge said maintenance teams had been “working in fear,” that people directed by the council had been obstructed “to the extent that at times they have simply given up on the removal,” and that there was “little prospect absent an injunction that it will stop.”
The order does not stop flags on private property. Oxfordshire still flies the Union Flag and the St George’s Cross at County Hall. Bearder has repeated that the case “is not, and never has been, about the flag,” and that Raise the Colours’ conduct was “nothing to do with national pride or with support for the England team during the World Cup.”
If it was never about the flag, the council would not have needed a High Court order aimed at the flag. If it was never about patriotism, Bearder would not have needed to announce that the people doing it were “not patriots.”
Long before any judge got involved, town halls were already spending public money to erase the colours from the street.
Freedom of Information requests to hundreds of local authorities showed councils had spent at least £70,000 removing Union Jacks and St George’s Crosses from lampposts and street fixtures. The true figure was higher. Many authorities folded the work into existing budgets and reported nothing.
Medway Council alone spent close to £11,600 taking down more than 700 flags. Labour councillor Alex Paterson, who oversaw community safety there, called it “money well spent” to combat “far-right agitators” and to “make the community feel safe again.”
He told the BBC: “I think at this stage the world is divided into people who know exactly why these flags were put up and those who are still pretending they don’t know why they were put up.”
Left-wing activist Pablo O’Hana, who sent some of the FoI requests, was filmed pulling flags off a Manchester bridge. He told the man who had put them up that he took them down because “that’s not what our country is.”
That is the official mind in a sentence. The country is not allowed to look like the country.
The same pattern produced a small masterpiece of modern administration in Essex. Staff were offered emotional support if they felt “discomforted” by the national flag on road signs, bridges and trees.
An internal note said: “While these symbols may hold different meanings for different people, we recognise that for many – particularly our colleagues of colour – they can evoke feelings of discomfort and be associated with anti-immigration rhetoric.”
Senior leaders invited anyone “feeling unsettled or affected by what you’re seeing” to speak to managers, “Global Majority Leads,” an assistant director or the director. The Union Flag and the St George’s Cross still flew outside headquarters. The problem was not the flag on the civic pole. The problem was the flag in the community.
Nigel Farage, as an Essex MP, called the council “totally out of touch with the county.” Lord Maurice Glasman put the priority list in one line: “You get mugged and your bag nicked and that’s nothing to do with them, but you put a flag up and it’s suddenly an issue.” Former Attorney General Sir Michael Ellis said: “This is two-tier. The council won’t fix a pothole but worry about this.”
Local jobsworths did not invent the idea that the Union Flag is a social hazard. A leaked draft of the government’s “social cohesion” strategy did the theological work for them.
The document claimed national symbols were sometimes used to “exclude or intimidate,” and that the “extreme right has tried to turn symbols of pride into tools of hate.” Flying the English, Scottish and Union flags was folded into a story of hate rather than belonging.
The 47-page draft, Protecting What Matters, leaked to The Spectator, sketched hundreds of millions of pounds for areas where cohesion was “under pressure,” a special representative to tackle hostility directed at Muslims, and a new definition of Islamophobia.
Reform UK’s Richard Tice’s verdict on the flag passage was blunt: “Absurdly, this says our national flag is a tool of hate used to intimidate. The whole paper is a divisive nonsense that should be consigned to the bin.”
A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson said only: “We do not comment on leaks.”
There is a word for the official twitch. Vexillophobia: fear of the flag. Not a clinical diagnosis. A political allergy. A country that treats the St George’s Cross or the Union flag as an act of aggression while other political colours are treated as inclusion.
The same institutions had no comparable panic when other flags owned the street. Palestinian colours hung from Birmingham lampposts for months. A leaked 2025 email from cabinet member Majid Mahmood, reported by the Mail, said of those Palestine flags: “We are taking these down, but we need the support of the police due to issues that have cropped (up) when we first tried to take them down.”
Conservative opposition leader Cllr Robert Alden called the contrast “completely disgraceful,” adding “Frankly, for the last two years, the council has made little effort to remove Palestine flags and now, suddenly, residents are putting up the Union Jack and St George’s Cross and they’re saying it’s a health and safety risk – it’s madness.”
Robert Jenrick called it “blatant two-tier bias against the British people.”
The World Cup made the double standard impossible to miss. Councils warned that English flags might upset “community cohesion.” Bristol talked about remaining “welcoming, respectful and safe for everyone during the tournament.” English people, in England, were told to mute their own colours in case someone else took offence.
Other authorities joined the queue. Portsmouth, Cheshire, Bristol, Oxford: flags painted off roundabouts, taken off street furniture, treated as a fire risk or an inclusivity problem, while other political symbols stayed put.
Raise the Colours did not come out of a vacuum. It followed years of mass immigration, grooming scandals, and taxpayer-funded hotels for people who arrived illegally. The official response was not to fix the conditions that produced the flags. It was to pathologise the flags.
Section 132 of the Highways Act already lets a council cut an unauthorised sign off a lamp column. What Oxfordshire wanted, and what Birmingham now wants, is something sharper: a civil injunction against the entire country, enforced by contempt of court.
An authority that needs a High Court order to keep the national flag off a lamppost is one whose officials are more frightened of displays of national pride than of the declining conditions that produced the trend in the first place.
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A street interview doing the rounds this week encapsulates the entire European open-borders agenda in under two minutes.
Older Spaniards nod along when asked if they would welcome a migrant into their home, saying it would make for a much better system if everyone did so.
Solidarity, humanity, of course. Then the interviewer produces a real migrant looking for a home and suddenly everything changes.
The interviewer presents the couple with a Nigerian man named Sony who plays guitar on the pavement for small change – and their previous answers collapse into excuses, holidays, “not right now,” and finally “no, no, no, no, no.”
The clip, shared by Casey Krol and filmed in the Rescue You style, is the kind of unscripted moment the official narrative cannot survive. Abstract empathy and virtue signalling is easy, but when the reality of the situation is presented, everything is turned on its head.
The couple in the video are not monsters. They are ordinary people who have absorbed years of hectoring lecturing and know the approved answer. They just refuse to live it.
Spain’s socialist government has spent years selling the opposite message. Prime Minister Sánchez has called migration “one of the great engines of national development” and an “act of justice and a necessity.”
Globalist scion calls for more leaders to flood nations with migrants under guise of “sound policy”
The chaos did not stay in Ceuta. Boats began hitting mainland tourist coves. In Cartagena, dozens of military-age men leapt onto a packed beach in full view of families. Mayor Noelia Arroyo said: “This cannot be normalised. We cannot accept that human trafficking mafias have such an easy time reaching our shores.” Former mayor Francisco Bernabe asked how a boat that size evaded radar: “Are they broken? Do they have them turned off?”https://modernity.news/2026/08/21/spanish-beach-stormed-as-ceuta-chaos-spreads/embed/
Majority of Socialist Party supporters also want mass deportations
This week the tension in Ceuta boiled over again. Residents marched on the migrant camp at El Trampolín beach, tore down tents, and threw belongings into the sea. Police fired warning shots to keep the two groups apart. The city of 84,000 has been told to absorb what Madrid will not remove.
The labor market tells the same story. Foreign-born workers now hold 52.6 percent of unskilled construction jobs and outnumber Spaniards in those roles. Since 2019 the sector has lost more than 22,000 Spanish workers and gained 238,000 foreign ones. Bricklayers, plumbers, and electricians show the same slide. Spain’s youth are not replacing the retiring generation; imported labor is.https://modernity.news/2026/08/25/spains-great-replacement-half-of-unskilled-construction-workers-now-foreign-laborers/embed/
Meanwhile, foreigners commit five times more rapes and four times more murders per capita than Spaniards. In Catalonia, 91 percent of convicted rapists are migrants, who make up 17 percent of the population. Reported rapes in Spain rose 322 percent in a decade. Penetrative rape cases more than doubled between 2019 and 2024.
Seventy percent of the country already knows the solution is removal, not more lectures about housing the next arrival.
The people who designed this system will keep calling it compassion. They will keep living somewhere the consequences do not reach. Ordinary Spaniards are the ones facing the dire fallout.
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END
CEUTA SPAIN/
UPRISING
Uprising In Ceuta: Locals Have Had Enough Of Migrant Invasion
In the complete absence of any meaningful government action, the people of Ceuta have taken matters into their own hands.
On Wednesday night, Spanish flags filled the streets of the North African enclave. Crowds chanted for deportations. Then a column of residents pushed toward El Trampolín beach, the open-air settlement that has occupied a family shoreline for nearly a month. Tents came down. Belongings went into the sea.
Police formed a line between Spaniards and the camps – and opened fire with rubber bullets on the locals.
That is the picture now coming out of a city of roughly 84,000 people that was flooded at the end of July by a crossing Spanish officials have put above 70,000 and, in some tallies, near 80,000.
The government spent weeks talking about “coexistence,” “diversity,” and “normality.” Ceuta spent those same weeks living with feces in children’s parks, hospital wards under strain, and a rising stack of sexual-assault files. On Wednesday, the patience snapped.
The protest began in the late afternoon in O’Donnell, outside the old Military Hospital – one of the sites residents feared the central government wanted to turn into migrant housing.
El Mundo put more than 2,000 people at the Government Delegation. Other Spanish outlets described a larger march through the centre, Spanish and Ceuta flags everywhere, slogans hammered out for hours: “Ceuta no se vende, Ceuta se defiende.” “Un caballa nunca se rinde.” “Invasores expulsión.” “Ceuta no es un CETI.”
They demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and of the government delegate in the city, Miguel Ángel Pérez Triano.
When night fell, a few hundred broke toward El Trampolín. El Español reported residents ripping down tents, throwing camp gear into the water, and trying to drive the remaining occupants off “our beach.”
Police blocked the main part of the beach. Deterrent rounds followed. Yes, really. They fired rubber bullets at Spaniards protesting illegal settlement; but there was no such volley when tens of thousands illegally stormed the border in July.
Spanish journalist Vito Quiles remarked on Ceutíes bursting the illegal beach settlements while the Spanish state stood still. “Honor al pueblo de Ceuta,” he wrote – honour to a city doing the job the ministries would not.
Further footage captured groups of local men moving through the dark after the official march had broken up, describing armed residents hunting those they call invaders. After four weeks of official paralysis in the city, locals took matters into their own hands.
One chant captured on the sand, reported by El Mundo, summarised the feeling among residents; “Si no se quieren ir, los echaremos nosotros.” If they will not leave, we will throw them out.
They also chanted “Aquí hay más policía que el día del salto,” there are more police than on the day of the mass jump.
Officers who had been unable or unwilling to keep the shoreline clear of shacks suddenly had the numbers to stop Spaniards from finishing the clearance themselves.
A left-wing government that spent a month insisting the situation was under control found the will to fire on its own citizens the moment those citizens tried to recover a public beach.
By Thursday morning the temperature had risen again. AFP reported that a military vehicle with four soldiers was ambushed in the early hours by a crowd of around 70 migrants throwing stones and other objects.
The soldiers fled and called for police. Twelve Moroccan men were detained. One soldier was slightly injured. Kissy Chandiramani, Ceuta’s finance councillor, stated: “The tension in the city of Ceuta is very high” because there is “no response” from the government and “we feel abandoned.”
Remaining migrant shanty camps on the beach were set alight and destroyed.
City hall, aid groups counting food rations, and anyone with eyes on Trampolín, Benítez, the hills and the warehouse district nite that thousands of migrants remain.
We’ve seen Mother weeping on live television. One said her 16-year-old “has to go everywhere with her father or with me because the migrants devour her. I can’t take it anymore. I want them all gone,” Adding that “What’s stayed here is the worst of it; there are murderers, rapists, thieves.”
END
POLAND
‘White Lives Matter’ Graffiti Sparks Investigation, Suspects Face Up To 3 Years In Prison
Polish prosecutors are now investigating a “White Lives Matter” graffiti as a hate crime in the city of Rzeszów, with the suspects facing up to three years in prison if they are apprehended and convicted.
Painted on a wall in the Polish city of Rzeszów, the graffiti was reportedly created as a memorial to the murdered British youth Henry Nowak.
Polish police have reportedly secured surveillance footage and referred the case to Polish prosecutors.
However, Polish newspaper toRzeszow claims that cameras are not in the direct area where the wall was painted, making it difficult to identify the suspects.
Authorities also painted over the entire wall.
Major Polish news outlet wPolsce24 has reacted with outrage to the investigation: “The Rzeszów case is part of a broader trend of suppressing the voices of white people who dare to remind them that their lives also have value. When black people say “Black Lives Matter,” it is a fight for equality. When white people say “White Lives Matter,” it is immediately racist.“
The news outlet further writes: “The slogan on the garages in Rzeszów was not an expression of hatred. There was a voice reminding us that white lives matters too. And as long as we treat some lives as ‘more equal’ than others, such slogans will appear on walls.”
Meanwhile, authorities claim the graffiti is illegal under article 257 of the Polish penal code, which concerns the public insult of a group of people or an individual based on national, ethnic, or racial identity.
A group labeled “Narodowy Rzeszów” allegedly posted a video of themselves standing next to the graffiti holding a banner and flares and displaying the logo of the right-wing National-Radical Camp (ONR), however, it remains unclear if they sprayed the graffiti themselves.
Their post pointed to violence against Whites in Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Social media platforms took the video down.
Trump says Iran is ‘in deep trouble’ as US maintains blockade of Strait of Hormuz
Asked why Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed or committed not to attack NATO territory, Trump responded, “I had good conversations with him. He is not going to attack NATO territory.”
US President Donald Trump reacts as he speaks to the media with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent behind him, on the day of a NATO leaders’ summit in Ankara, Turkey, July 8, 2026.
US President Donald Trump addressed Iran’s situation on Thursday evening, saying that “Iran right now is not paying its soldiers. They are in deep trouble. They have very little capability left.”
Trump also discussed the Strait of Hormuz and US activity in the area, saying, “Last night we moved 24 ships through the strait. We move them all the time. I’m saying this openly.”
He said, however, that the military activity had not ended, adding, “As you know, the Strait of Hormuz is open. We have control and we have a blockade. Iran is getting nothing. Nothing is going through. No ship is going through.”
Asked whether he would punish Russian President Vladimir Putin or Russia if Moscow continued trading with Iran, Trump said the response would depend on the circumstances.
“Up to now, I think Russia has behaved pretty well when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin following a meeting to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, in Anchorage, Alaska, August 15. (credit: KEVIN LAMARQUE/REUTERS)
Russia won’t attack NATO territory, Trump affirms
Trump also addressed Russia during his remarks to reporters, following the visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to the country two days earlier.
Asked why Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed or committed not to attack NATO territory, Trump responded, “I had good conversations with him. He is not going to attack NATO territory.”
Asked whether he had warned Putin not to do so, Trump said, “I don’t want to comment on that, but they are not going to attack.”
Trump was also asked why he had not imposed sanctions on Chinese banks that conduct business with Iran. He responded, “Who said I’m not? You’re asking ‘why not,’ who said? You don’t know if I’m doing it. I don’t have to announce everything, right?”
Addressing the possibility of renewed talks with Iran, Trump said, “We don’t want to talk to them. We’re not looking to meet or something like that. The strait is open, we are moving a lot of ships. Millions and millions of barrels of oil are going through the strait every day.”
He also said the US had completely cleared the Strait of Hormuz of mines, adding, “We have the best minesweepers in the world.”
Trump said the US was closely monitoring Iran through its Space Force, saying, “We see every inch of the strait. Every ship that enters with a mine, we see it and destroy it. We have already destroyed two of them.”
Meanwhile, sources familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal that the Trump administration has repeatedly made clear to mediators that it has no interest in returning to the terms of the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran in June.
According to the sources, the position has complicated efforts underway this week to restart diplomatic negotiations.
According to the newspaper’s report, the initial agreement signed by Trump at Versailles, with Vice President JD Vance involved in its formulation, was intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and an end to the war, in exchange for sanctions relief.
Although Trump has said he ultimately wants an agreed-upon end to the confrontation, he is currently willing to wait and assess whether increased economic pressure on Tehran will produce results.
Conflict Hits 6 Months: Iran Says Diplomacy Can Return But “Pressure Doesn’t Work”
Friday, Aug 28, 2026 – 10:45 AM
In what will likely prove to be a very limited and ultimately unfruitful diplomatic overture, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has newly announced that Tehran views renewed talks with Washington as not impossible, and that dialogue can actually get on track – but so long as the US understands that pressure does not work.
In a Friday post on X, Araghchi acknowledged “creative discussions” with Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al -Thani, wherein the Iranian side expressed that US leadership must respect the Islamic Republic’s sovereignty and rights.
“Putting diplomacy back on track isn’t impossible. It hinges on U.S. understanding of one simple fact: pressure doesn’t work. The U.S. should build trust, speak respectfully, acknowledge our rights, and uphold commitments,” Araghchi stated.
The talks with the top Qatari delegation happened in Tehran, and according to a summary from Doha’s side:
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said talks covered efforts to de-escalate regional tensions and a proposed interim framework establishing “a temporary joint shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz,” alongside a joint operation to clear mines from the strait.
Al Thani stressed “the necessity of respecting the sovereignty of neighboring countries and freedom of navigation” and resolving disputes through dialogue.
According to Qatar’s readout, Araghchi thanked Doha for its diplomatic efforts supporting dialogue and de-escalation.
And yet, President Trump has this week insisted that all mines are already clear from the strait, as a result of the work of the US Navy. It has remained unclear what precise data or confirmation he is relying on.
As for Qatar, it along with Pakistan helped broker the memorandum of understanding in June, which has since gone defunct and is also now expired.
President Trump had once again on Thursday claimed that Iran is “begging to make a deal” – something which is not evident in any public stance or statements out of Iran.
Instead, Iranian officials have continued by and large striking a defiant tone, with the Foreign Ministry on Friday blasting the “economic terrorism” of the Trump administration.
“The US abuse of the dollar as a tool to intimidate other countries in order to force them to follow its interventionist policies, which violate international law, in relation to Iran, constitutes a violation of the national sovereignty and right to self-determination of all member states of the United Nations,” the statement said. “US sanctions against Iran, due to both their nature and consequences, constitute a flagrant violation of the UN Charter.”
The NY Times on Friday underscores that Friday is precisely the six month mark of the Iran conflict, writing:
It was supposed to be quick.
Still, six months after the U.S. and Israel launched massive airstrikes on Iran, the conflict drags on. The Trump administration has replaced its military war with an economic one, but the result is likely to be no different, analysts said, with a lack of American clarity about goals, a decline in American credibility and a strategic defeat.
One thing remains constant, however. The ordinary people of Iran are bearing the brunt of the war, victims of both the United States and their own leaders.
Postmortem and blame game on another ‘war of choice’ in the Middle East begins…
Meanwhile, some analysts warn that Washington’s Iran-related secondary sanctions could have the opposite of the intended effect, and ultimately hasten a global trend of de-dollarization.
END
“Dark” Tanker Fleet Shatters Iran’s Hormuz Stranglehold As Gulf Oil Exports Top Two-Thirds Of Pre-War Level
Friday, Aug 28, 2026 – 11:25 AM
Brent crude futures initially jumped overnight after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has no interest in reviving the memorandum of understanding (interim peace deal) reached with Iran in June. The war-risk premium in Brent has since faded in New York premarket trading amid mounting developments this week that major Gulf producers, including Kuwait and Qatar, are increasing tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Emerging diplomatic traction between Oman and Iran has also further reduced the perceived risk of a prolonged disruption.
Reinforcing this week’s developments, new data from Daan Struyven, Goldman’s co-head of Global Commodities Research and head of oil research, show that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to more than two-thirds of prewar levels.
Struyven wrote in a note late Thursday that Gulf-area exports of crude and petroleum products have rebounded sharply to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, up from a March low of 5 million to 6 million barrels per day.
He said crude flows remain 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below prewar levels, but the recovery has been strong enough to ease fears of a prolonged disruption at the world’s most important maritime chokepoint.
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are estimated at 8 million to 10 million barrels per day. Traders surveyed by Bloomberg place that range much lower, at between 6 million and 8 million barrels per day.
“Although our estimates focus on total Gulf flows, the upward revisions suggest Strait of Hormuz oil transits are likely close to US officials’ 8-10mb/d estimates. The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Middle East conflict,” Struyven told clients.
He noted, “Shipping markets now price in disruptions likely continuing well into 2027 (Exhibit 7). Still, potential additional dark flows and price-sensitive China net crude imports may moderate the upside to crude oil prices even if Mideast disruptions last longer. We continue to see greater price upside to European natural gas prices and deferred oil product prices in persistent disruption scenarios than for crude.”
Readers by now understand that the energy crisis is not necessarily in crude oil but, in fact, in refined products, with the U.S. diesel crack spread trading at $93 per barrel Friday morning. The spread blew out last week, reaching a record above $100.
The takeaway from Goldman’s Struyven is that, even though the critical waterway has not fully reopened, a growing fleet of dark tankers is transiting the strait and defying Iran’s blockade. That raises the question we have asked in recent weeks: Is Iran’s geopolitical leverage over the Strait of Hormuz eroding?
Overnight, Trump posted an image on Truth Social depicting the Strait of Hormuz as “New U.S. Territory.”
In late March, we cited a note from Zoltan Pozsar’s advisory firm, Ex Uno Plures, pointing out that Trump was “methodically building a portfolio of assets” to pressure China, including adding the Strait of Hormuz (read here).
The question is whether Trump will stop at Hormuz or embark on another crusade in the Gulf and take Iran’s Kharg Island. This newly minted portfolio also includes Venezuela, where the U.S. is nearing a deal to secure long-term energy-producing assets in the country.
The Turkish government hired a lobbying firm with close ties to US President Donald Trump earlier this month under a year-long contract worth $2.4m, according to US Justice Department filings reviewed by Middle East Eye.
Ballard Partners, led by Brian Ballard, a prominent Florida Republican fundraiser who also worked on Trump’s presidential campaign, signed the agreement with Turkey’s Ministry of National Defense on August 8. The firm will receive $200,000 per month.
Under the contract, Ballard Partners pledged to provide “government relations services, strategic consulting and advocacy services” before the federal government, and keep its client informed about developments in Congress and US policy.
This is not the first time Ballard Partners has worked for Turkey.
In 2017, during Trump’s first term, Turkey hired the firm under a $1.5m contract. It was one of Ballard Partners’ first major deals in Washington after opening an office there.
At the time, the firm reportedlyfocused on the sanctions-evasion case against Turkish state-owned lender Halkbank. The Trump administration’s Justice Department dropped the charges against the bank earlier this year.
The new contract differs from the previous agreement because Turkey’s defense ministry is the principal client. Ankara is seeking to rejoin the F-35 fighter jet program after being removed in 2019 over its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system.
Middle East Eye reported last month that Ankara was considering selling the S-400 system to a third country, potentially the United Arab Emirates, in an effort to persuade Washington to lift sanctions against Turkey.
Ankara also hopes to take delivery of six F-35s that were manufactured for Turkey but have remained in storage in the US for years.
According to the Justice Department filings, the Ballard Partners team working for Turkey includes former Democratic congressman Robert Wexler of Florida, a prominent pro-Turkish voice who co-founded the Congressional Caucus on US-Turkey Relations and Turkish Americans in 2001.
Wexler is also president of the S Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace in Washington and is known for his connections to pro-Israelcircles.
Another member of the team is Thomas Boodry, who served as a special assistant to Trump and senior director for legislative affairs at the National Security Council until April 2025. Boodry was dismissed amid the removal of former US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz.
Reports at the time suggested that Trump fired Boodry and five other officials shortly after meeting far-right activist Laura Loomer, who presented opposition research on several staff members and argued that they were disloyal to the president.
The team also includes Syl Lukis, a senior partner at Ballard Partners and one of Ballard’s closest associates.
Bloomberg reported earlier this year that Ballard Partners’ alums include White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and former Attorney General Pam Bondi.
The firm generated more than $30m in federal lobbying revenue during the first quarter of 2026, more than any other firm on Washington’s K Street.
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Europe’s Gas Squeeze Just Got Worse
by Asymmetric Research
Friday, Aug 28, 2026 – 6:29
EU natural gas prices hit new cycle highs this morning, €69/MWh, after Qatar again extended its LNG force majeure. European buyers are pushed into November, Pakistan into October. Worth noting that, unlike oil tankers, gas tankers through the Strait of Hormuz remain near a standstill, as LNG carriers are scarcer and more valuable. The squeeze is not easing.
TTF is now near its highest in more than three and a half years, the strongest since the last energy crisis, and up more than 70% from the April lows. We think there is more to go. Europe is refilling storage far too slowly, into a full Russian phase-out next year that is not talked about enough. The official message remains that all is well. The data, and increasingly Germany, say otherwise.
TTF price (€/MWh)
Source: Barchart (Month ahead)
Brussels remains in denial
The European Commission continues to downplay the risk. It has cut the winter storage goal from 90% to 80% and maintains there is no immediate concern over security of supply, pointing to the resilience the system has shown so far. The argument is that storage, adjusted for lower annual consumption, leaves the winter outlook comfortable. But we would want to see what happens to TTF if that extra storage capacity were permanently removed today.
We think the reasoning is naive. Last winter, which was warmer than average, still produced a net storage draw in line with pre-Ukraine-war levels. Repeat that draw from where we now expect storage to peak, and inventories reach crisis levels of around 17 bcm by April. That is before the elephant in the room: the scheduled full phase-out of Russian gas next year, into which the EU still relies heavily on Russian volumes. There appears to be a reluctance among officials to remind the market of this, yet once the phase-out takes effect Europe faces a structural shortfall regardless of the weather.
A further risk we think is entirely unpriced: that Russia cuts its remaining exports abruptly, and sooner than 2027. Any U-turn on the phase-out would be legally and politically complex, which leaves Russia with significant leverage over the EU at its most vulnerable point, with tensions over Ukraine still unresolved. We suspect more pain for the EU comes first.
Germany starting to say otherwise
Germany is now taking a different tone, and this is the more telling development. German transmission operators have warned the country’s winter storage target is virtually unattainable. Sites are only around 50% full, the lowest seasonal level since records began in 2009, and the operators have called on the government to require market participants to secure sufficient volumes through the end of winter.
The Economy Ministry has said it will prepare contingency measures if security of supply deteriorates further, looking not only at German fill levels but at LNG and import availability in neighbouring countries. Officials have floated 60 to 70% fill as sufficient, a quiet retreat from the previous 70% legal target. When the largest gas consumer in Europe starts preparing for intervention while Brussels projects calm, we would pay attention to the former.
Supply picture has worsened
Beyond Qatar and Hormuz, the near-term picture has also softened. Since early August, average daily injections have run around 10% below our forecasts. Three supply developments compound the problem:
First, Norway. Ormen Lange output has fallen by 8.9 mcm/day from its normal 22.9 mcm capacity, and Gassco has pushed the return to full operations from October out to February 2027. The problem extends into next year: on currently scheduled planned outages, Norway’s 2027 maintenance programme is around 20% heavier than 2026 and concentrated in the autumn refill window.
Second, shipping. Beyond the Hormuz constraint on LNG, the Panama Canal will cut daily transits from 36 to 32 from mid-September as an intensifying El Niño threatens water levels. The restrictions should at least moderately sustain international prices.
Third, price signals. Time spreads are still not incentivising refill, and Europe to Asia differentials, while improved, are arguably on a thin edge.
The next month is critical. The window from now to late September has historically accounted for more than 60% of the season’s remaining refill. If the EU and Germany are going to wake up and act, this is the window to do it, and forcing refill into a tight market is bullish TTF. If they do not, they push the problem further down the road, into a phase-out year with even less room to manoeuvre. Either way, we struggle to see how this resolves at lower prices.
We cut our storage forecasts again
We have lowered our EU storage forecasts again, the fourth downgrade since the Iran conflict began. We now expect storage to peak at only around 72% before winter, the lowest pre-winter peak of any year in the chart below. Europe would enter the withdrawal season worse stocked than in any recent year.
Our EU 2026E Gas Storage Forecast vs History (% full)
Source: GIE AGSI. 2026E estimate = Asymmetric Research
From that peak, we ran the following winter’s drawdown at each of the last seven years’ actual draws. Four of the seven finish below 30% by April, and even the mildest outcome was only reached, historically, at crisis-level prices. None of these paths yet counts the Russian phase-out. We set out the full scenario analysis, and how we are positioned, in our latest note on Asymmetric Research.
Bottom line
The Qatari force majeure, the Hormuz constraint on LNG, weak injections, the Norwegian outages and the looming Russian phase-out all point the same way. Official messaging continues to downplay the risk, but Germany is breaking ranks and the price is moving. We have been long TTF since the Iran crisis began. It is playing out, but there is more to go, and time is running out to refill.
[…]
This article is based on research originally published on Asymmetric Research. Our latest note, “EU Natural Gas: A Rude Awakening”, sets out the full storage scenario analysis and how we are positioned across energy. Read it at: asymmetricresearch.substack.com
END
USA/VENEZUELA
Caracas Mulls OPEC Exit As Trump Closes In On “Massive” Deal For Venezuela’s Oil Fields
Friday, Aug 28, 2026 – 09:30 AM
Summary:
Caracas Mulls OPEC Exit
U.S. is Nears Deal For 17 Venezuelan Oil Fields under 100-year Leases Operated by U.S. oil companies
Trump Close To ‘Massive’ Deal For Seizing Stake In Venezuela’s Vast Oil Fields
Focus on the Strait of Hormuz is shifting to South America late in the week as the Trump administration moves to secure new long-term crude supplies in Venezuela. The U.S. is nearing an agreement that could place 17 Venezuelan oil fields under 100-year leases operated by U.S. oil companies.
According to Bloomberg, sources told the outlet that Caracas has discussed a possible exit from OPEC with U.S. officials. The sources said no final decision has been made, but the discussions come as the U.S. negotiates 100-year leases on several Venezuelan oil fields that require billions of dollars in investment.
Such an exit from OPEC would be symbolic, given that the South American country was one of the organization’s five founding members in 1960 and played a key role in establishing the expanded OPEC+ alliance with Russia in 2016.
More recently, the United Arab Emirates became another producer to announce its departure from OPEC. Venezuela is only considering withdrawal, while Iraq has expressed frustration but has yet to announce a formal exit.
A Venezuelan exit would not result in an immediate surge in crude production because of years of underinvestment, which is why the U.S. is seeking to take a large stake in the nation’s oil fields.
Venezuela currently produces about 1.16 million barrels per day, according to a Bloomberg survey, and is not subject to an active OPEC quota.
For President Trump, a U.S.-Venezuela energy alliance could prove very valuable by weakening OPEC, increasing non-Middle Eastern crude supplies, pressuring oil prices and locking down a massive reserve base in America’s backyard.
Trump Close To ‘Massive’ Deal For Seizing Stake In Venezuela’s Vast Oil Fields
Amid ongoing global oil supply disruptions due to the Iran war and Hormuz Strait crisis, and also as Ukraine’s war on Russian oil refineries and export terminals heats up, the Trump administration has been scrambling to tap new reliable and long-term energy sources.
Now, nearly eight months since the US miliary raid on Caracas which removed from power and captured socialist President Nicolás Maduro, and the Trump administration is said to be on the brink of a massive deal to gain ownership stake in the countries vast oil resources.
Axios is newly reporting Thursday of ‘negotiations’ (sure) in the works: “The historic deal would more than double U.S. oil reserves by drawing from a country that has the world’s largest proven reserves.”
The report cites one official as saying that “Calling this deal huge would be an understatement” as is is “massive.”
The wars in Iran and Ukraine, and especially the race to reopen Hormuz to international crude transit, have added heightened urgency to the talks – and given the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has reached a 40-year low.
Over a dozen productive oil fields are said be central to the “talks”, with Trump officials hoping for a quick breakthrough after long hyping Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” and what it can do to bolster American energy independence and security. Of course, instead of ‘talks’ or ‘negotiations’… in reality this is more simply about hammering out details on what orders will be dictated to the ‘new’ post-Maduro US client state in South America.
Axios details further of what’s at stake in the deliberations with Caracas:
The fields in question, which has 90 billion barrels of proven reserves, used to be controlled by former Venezuelan insiders — including some who’ve been indicted — as well as interests once controlled by China, the official said.
In return for giving the U.S. an ownership stake, Venezuela’s government would benefit from private companies, including American firms, developing the fields and returning more oil revenue to that country.
But this latter note remains the big question and risk, in terms of a potentially long timeline before the new potential Venezuelan oil flows make a noticeable difference.
Though sitting atop the world’s biggest proven oil reserves, Venezuela has long been known for its derelict and largely defunct infrastructure for getting crude out of the ground and refining. There’s also the question of security, which has been a source of discussion between the US admin and American oil companies being courted.
The oil majors must be convinced that they can operate in enough safety to be successful, not just for the coming months, but for years down the line. But if a broad and major ‘deal’ is struck with Caracas, these issues will probably look minor.
There are also lingering transparency and accountability questions concerning the Venezuelan oil exports that Washington already took over since Maduro’s ouster. This summer, the Council on Foreign Relations asked ‘where has all the money gone?’…
In the first four months of the United States exerting control over Venezuela’s oil exports, almost one hundred million barrels of oil worth an estimated $8 billion have flowed through a process marked by no transparency and minimal oversight. While the Trump administration has repeatedly framed this control as benefiting both countries, it has not publicly disclosed how much Venezuelan oil it has sold, how much revenue it has collected, or how it has used those funds since seizing control of the country’s oil exports following the January 3 military intervention that deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
The CFR also wrote:
The Trump administration has shared some details with Congress. Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified in January that $300 million had flowed through a “short-term” account in Qatar and been disbursed to Venezuela, while another $200 million was “still sitting” in the account. He indicated the administration would conduct a retroactive audit on the funds that moved through the Qatar account. The following month, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said during a press interview that the full $500 million had been transferred to Venezuela and that the administration would use U.S. Treasury accounts going forward.
But the administration has yet to provide a public accounting of the Qatar account, including how the funds were spent or what safeguards were in place to prevent corruption and money laundering. In April, a State Department witness told Congress that the department had authorized the disbursement of about $3 billion to Venezuela, but the witness did not know how much money remained in the U.S. Treasury accounts. It is not clear if the balance in either the Qatar or U.S. Treasury accounts has been shared with Congress.
The last public update was shared by President Trump to reporters in late July. He indicated the US has collected more than $13 billion from the sale of Venezuelan crude.
″$13 billion from Venezuela? I think even more than that,” the president previously told reporters, and boasted that “We’ve paid for that war many times over.”
With both the Venezuelan oil export control scheme and this new plan for US companies to move in based on a grand deal, the White House is touting that this is all about securing America’s energy future.
“President Trump is close to securing America’s energy future for generations to come, not just in the U.S. but in the hemisphere,” an official said to Axios.
As a reminder Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez was previously Maduro’s Vice President, and so the chavista socialism system is still actually in place, even if the new ruling regime is in reality now a puppet of Washington interests.
While President Trump initially declared that Washington would effectively “run” Venezuela, he later had openly endorsed Rodríguez as a temporary caretaker during the transition, despite her being as hardcore a Leftist pro-Maduro figure as anyone.
Among the first US actions with a compliant Rodríguez at the helm in Caracas was to cut off Venezuela’s oil supply to nearby ally Cuba. So ultimately, an eventual grand deal for American companies to take over Venezuelan oil fields should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention to what Washington’s real long-running regime changes aims in Venezuela were all about. In the meantime Western MSM outlets like Axios still pretend in their framing of these developments that the US is at the helm of some kind of “rules-based order”.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA/USA//RELATIONS TUMBLING!!
special thanks to Robert H.. for sending this to us:
Trump Escalates Canada Trade War as Ontario Says Ready to Cut Energy, Critical Minerals to U.S. – NaturalNews.com
Inbox
AI Overview
Robert shared article on Trump escalating trade war, warning of inflation/rate hikes.
Ontario prepares to cut energy/critical mineral exports to U.S. if escalation continues.
Robert suggests Canada might explore joining BRICS or EU soon.
Trump Escalates Canada Trade War as Ontario Says Ready to Cut Energy, Critical Minerals to U.S.
President Donald Trump escalated the trade dispute with Canada on Monday by announcing new 50% tariffs on Canadian automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and steel, according to a report by RT. The announcement came after trade negotiations between the United States and Canada collapsed late last week, with each side accusing the other of making unreasonable demands. [1]
Ontario Premier Doug Ford responded by stating that the province is prepared to restrict electricity exports to the United States and halt shipments of critical minerals used in technology and defense, according to a report by RT. “We will not stand idly by while our economy is attacked. We are prepared to use every tool at our disposal,” Ford said, according to the report. [2] The measures mark a significant escalation in tensions between the two nations, threatening to disrupt energy supplies to U.S. states that rely on Canadian power.
Background of the Trade Dispute
The trade war between the United States and Canada began with Trump’s initial tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, citing national security concerns. Canada retaliated by imposing 25% tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. goods, according to a report by NaturalNews.com author Cassie B. [3] The back-and-forth measures have disrupted supply chains and increased costs for industries on both sides, according to analysts. [4]
As the trade war progressed, global supply chains became scrambled, according to insights from analyst James Rickards. [5] The disputes have affected a wide range of sectors, from automotive manufacturing to energy. Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts were expected to raise U.S. vehicle prices by $5,000 to $15,000, according to a report by NaturalNews.com author Laura Harris. [6] Trump also granted a one-month tariff exemption for auto imports from Mexico and Canada to protect the U.S. auto industry from immediate disruptions, according to a report by NaturalNews.com author Cassie B. [7]
Ontario’s Plans to Cut Energy and Critical Minerals
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said the province is ready to restrict electricity exports to the U.S. and halt shipments of critical minerals if Trump continues to escalate the trade war, according to a report by RT. “We will not stand idly by while our economy is attacked. We are prepared to use every tool at our disposal,” Ford said, according to the report. [2] Energy experts say cutting electricity exports could affect U.S. states like New York and Michigan, which rely on Canadian power, according to a report by Utility Dive. [8]
Ford had previously canceled a $100 million contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink internet services in response to Trump’s tariffs, according to a report by NaturalNews.com author Laura Harris. [9] Ford had also worn an “Anti-MAGA” hat bearing the slogan “Canada Is Not For Sale” during a high-profile meeting, according to a report by NaturalNews.com author Arsenio Toledo. [10]
Impact on U.S. and Canadian Economies
Economists estimate the tariffs could raise consumer prices and slow economic growth in both countries, according to a report by the BBC. [11] Canadian officials argue the measures are necessary to defend domestic industries, according to reports. The dispute also threatens bilateral trade in critical minerals essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy, according to a report by the BBC. [12]
Business owners on both sides of the border are bracing for the fallout. Cindy Baldassi, owner of a jewelry company based in Calgary, Alberta, said that 75% of her sales come from Americans and that trade disruptions could be devastating, according to a report by the BBC. [13] Prime Minister Mark Carney accused Trump of wanting to “destroy” Canada’s auto industry, according to a report by the BBC. [12] Carney said Canada would impose “dollar-for-dollar” retaliatory tariffs, according to a report by RT. [14]
Conclusion: Outlook and Next Steps
Negotiations between U.S. and Canadian officials have stalled, with both sides accusing each other of unfair trade practices. Trump said on Sunday that Canada “wants the benefits of being a State, without being one,” according to a report by 100PercentFedUp. [15] Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned Canada that the trade war will be “devastating” for the country, according to a report by 100PercentFedUp. [16]
Analysts predict further escalation if no agreement is reached, potentially affecting global supply chains. Observers say the outcome will signal the future of U.S.-Canada trade relations under Trump’s second term. Canada has been pursuing alternative trade relationships, including deals with Saudi Arabia, according to a report by Middle East Eye. [17]
References
RT. “Trump slaps 50% tariffs on Canadian cars.” RT. August 24, 2026.
RT. “Canada threatens to cut electricity to US.” RT. August 24, 2026.
Cassie B. “Trudeau escalates trade war with US imposes 25 tariffs on 155 billion in American goods.” NaturalNews.com. March 4, 2025.
James Rickards. “Sold Out.”
James Rickards. “Sold Out.”
Laura Harris. “Trumps 25 auto tariffs shake industry but Tesla stands strong.” NaturalNews.com. April 6, 2025.
Cassie B. “Trump grants one month tariff exemption for auto imports from Mexico Canada amid industry concerns.” NaturalNews.com. March 7, 2025.
Utility Dive. “US-Canada trade war threatens electricity imports, prices.” Utility Dive. August 25, 2026.
Laura Harris. “Ontario Premier Doug Ford cancels 100M Starlink contract in retaliation for Trumps tariffs.” NaturalNews.com. February 6, 2025.
Arsenio Toledo. “Canadian Anti MAGA hat bearing the slogan Canada Is Not For Sale goes viral.” NaturalNews.com. January 27, 2025.
BBC. “What tariffs has Trump introduced and why?” BBC. July 21, 2026.
BBC. “US-Canada trade war builds as Carney vows retaliatory tariffs after Trump threatens hike on autos.” BBC. August 24, 2026.
BBC. “‘Half my business will be gone’ – Firms in Canada and US fear trade war.” BBC. August 24, 2026.
RT. “Canada fires back at Trump’s 50% tariffs.” RT. August 22, 2026.
100PercentFedUp. “President Trump Responds After Trade Negotiations With Canada Collapse.” 100PercentFedUp. August 23, 2026.
100PercentFedUp. “President Trump’s Transportation Secretary Warns Canada: This Trade War Will Be ‘Devastating’.” 100PercentFedUp. August 23, 2026.
Middle East Eye. “‘Shared ambitions’: Canada, Saudi Arabia sign deals on defence, investment, and AI.” Middle East Eye. July 10, 2026.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer speaks to members of the press outside the West Wing of the White House in Washington on April 2, 2026. Alex Wong/Getty Images
Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc says Ottawa welcomes Washington “withdrawing its positions” on Canada’s discoverability requirements for streamers after U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the United States has “flexibility” on the issue.
Greer disputes Ottawa’s characterization of the issue, saying it was never a red-line for the United States, contradicting Prime Minister Mark Carney’s statement that Washington opposed Canada’s French-language protection requirements.
“Canada welcomes that the U.S. is now withdrawing its positions on discoverability and labelling and is confirming that measures to promote French language and Canadian culture will not be subject to future U.S. trade actions,” LeBlanc said in a statement on Aug. 27.
LeBlanc also suggested that Washington’s updated position meant there was more of an opening for a “mutually beneficial trade agreement that respects Canadian sovereignty,” and that Ottawa looked forward to seeing “further constructive U.S. clarifications on their other positions.”
Carney told reporters a day after the negotiations broke down that it was in part due to American “efforts to restrict our protections of our language, our culture, and in effect, our sovereignty.”
Carney also told reporters on Aug. 22 that Washington’s insistence on Canada restricting trade agreements with other nations and omitting medium- and heavy-duty truck from tariff exemptions contributed to the collapse of negotiations.
END
NEPAL
Newly Formed Lake Threatens 2nd Flood At Nepal-Tibet Disaster Zone
Thursday, Aug 27, 2026 – 06:00 PM
A rapidly expanding dammed lake above a Nepal-Tibet flood zone poses a severe new threat to Gyirong Port, where hundreds of people remain unaccounted for following an initial catastrophic surge.
Formed by mudslides near the junction of two rivers, the blockage sits about 11 miles upstream of Rasuwagadhi and has created a 27-acre lake, according to Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). China’s Ministry of Water Resources estimated on Aug. 27 that the lake currently holds roughly 2 million cubic meters (528 million gallons) of water. Fueled by incoming rain, it is expected to absorb another 3 million cubic meters (793 million gallons) over the next three days.
The situation is increasingly precarious. The ministry warned that the lake is already overflowing and faces a high risk of a sudden release that could once again inundate Gyirong Port and communities downstream. Drone reconnaissance conducted by fire and rescue personnel – and reported by the state-run Xinhua News Agency on Aug. 27 – confirmed the danger, revealing that the lake’s surface continues to expand with water levels visibly higher than the day before.
In response to the mounting threat, Nepalese authorities have urged all residents, travelers, and rescue personnel along the Bhote Koshi River corridor to completely avoid riverbanks and other high-risk zones.
This secondary crisis emerges as the toll from the first flood continues to rise.
An Aug. 27 update from the NDRRMA confirmed that 359 bodies have been recovered in Nepal, with another 910 individuals still out of contact. Meanwhile, across the border, the Gyirong disaster command reported three confirmed deaths and 558 people missing in Tibet – including 260 foreign nationals – as of 8 a.m. on Aug. 27.
As the Epoch Timesnotes, the new lake is still rising…
The new lake formed in debris left by the disaster near the confluence of the Cuojian River and Purepuqiang Zangbo, upstream of Gyirong Port.
Chinese authorities on Aug. 27 found that the broader landslide area had not expanded, but the lake surface continued to grow.
Water was already passing over the natural barrier rather than remaining contained behind it. Authorities described the condition as overflowing, not a full breach.
Natural dams are formed suddenly from loose rock, soil, and other debris rather than engineered materials.
According to National Cheng Kung University resource-engineering professor Huang Jing-sheng, water penetrating such debris can increase internal water pressure and reduce the friction helping hold the blockage together.
Historical records compiled by Taiwan’s Agriculture Ministry identify erosion from water flowing over the top as one common failure mechanism for natural dams.
The agency cautions that historical cases cannot predict how a particular lake will behave.
New Hazard Complicates Access
The dammed lake sits above an area already heavily damaged by the first flood.
The edge of the debris flow was located about 1.6 miles from Gyirong Port, with deposits approaching 5 feet thick in places, Xinhua reported.
An engineering team was using drones and 3D laser scanners to survey the blockage and measure its shape, surrounding rock, and water flow, according to Chinese rescue authorities, who said the upstream threat had to be addressed before crews could safely clear the large debris field closer to the port.
On the Nepal side, the new danger extends directly into the rescue corridor.
The NDRRMA and Nepal’s hydrology authorities urged residents, travelers, and rescue personnel along the lower Bhotekoshi to remain away from riverbanks and other exposed areas.
That warning is tied to the newly formed lake, not the initial flood surge.
More Water Forecast
China’s National Meteorological Center continued to forecast additional rainfall around Gyirong through Aug. 29.
Gyirong Port was expected to see light rain overnight on Aug. 27 and into Aug. 28, with moderate rain at times.
Rain was forecast to intensify on Aug. 29, with light to moderate rain and periods of moderate to heavy rain.
Along the corridor from Gyirong Port toward Nepal, the China Meteorological Administration’s public weather service forecast moderate to heavy rain on Aug. 27, moderate rain on Aug. 28, and moderate to heavy rain again on Aug. 29, with possible thunderstorms, strong winds, and hail.
A Chinese Water Ministry hydrological assessment put inflow into the lake at about 15 cubic meters per second (4,000 gallons per second) and said the volume was still increasing.
Based on the rainfall forecast, the ministry estimated that the lake could receive another 3 million cubic meters (793 million gallons) of water over the next three days.
END
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1647 DOWN 0.0006
USA/ YEN 159.55 UP 0.235 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS
GBP/USA 1.3585 DOWN 0.0013 OR 13 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3855 UP 0.0004 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 4.39 PTS OR 0.11%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 13.26 PTS OR 0.05%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.46%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 13.26 PTS OR 0.05%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.39 PTS OR 0.11%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .46%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 255.02 PTS OR 0.38%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4612.00
silver:$70.72
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 48.25 UP 11 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 85.49 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 49 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.0545 UP 2 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.7850 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.712 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.305 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY MORNING: 99.12 UP 3 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.614% UP 0 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.926% UP 3 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.119 UP 3 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.713 UP 1 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.0992 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.2660 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1641 DOWN 0.0013 OR 13 basis points
USA/Japan: 159.65 UP 0.332 OR YEN IS DOWN 33 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.0498 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.776 UP 2 BASIS POINTS.
Hormuz, Huang, & Hawks: Slow Summer Week Ends In Chaos After J-Hole
JACKSON HOLE SPEECH/WARSH
Rate-Hike Odds Spike As Chair Warsh Tilts Hawkish, Questions AI Productivity Timing, Prefers “Quieter” Fed
Friday, Aug 28, 2026 – 10:50 AM
Update (1000ET): The speech was hawkish in substance (see full remarks below) – Warsh framed inflation as the clear priority, said financial conditions are not restrictive, and set a high bar (“confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed”) – while refusing to pre-commit to a September hike.
But one thing they are sure about is the yield curve which is flattening dramatically, erasing all of the post-FOMC steepening…
With Warsh tilting hawkish at the short-end, and Bessent with his thumb on the long-end scale, it’s no real surprise.
Key points
AI and the longer-term outlook
Warsh called AI a “hinge point” with potential for substantially higher growth, citing exploding token sales and a “hyper-Moore’s law.”
He posed open questions on productivity timing, whether AI complements or substitutes for labor, capital intensity, and how surplus will be distributed.
A productivity-and-jobs task force is working on this; its findings will not affect current policy decisions.
Forward guidance and markets
He restated his opposition to regular forward guidance, calling it a crisis-era tool that has “overstayed its welcome.”
He warned of a “hall-of-mirrors” problem in which the Fed and markets feed off each other and miss turning points.
He rejected publishing an explicit reaction function or mechanical rule, arguing the economy is too uncertain and that 2021-style guidance delayed the response to inflation.
Markets should form their own views from real data; the Fed should not be the primary source of the next trade.
Seven principles
Use contemporaneous, accurate data and trends – not stale or isolated prints.
Supply/demand balance can only be inferred, not observed directly.
The 2% PCE target is firm and fixed; inflation is not automatically mean-reverting.
The dual mandate is not a trade-off; high inflation itself damages employment and prosperity.
The policy rate is the main tool; unconventional tools belong only in genuine crises.
“Money matters” – watch the monetary base and bank-created money.
A quieter, more purposeful Fed is more accountable.
Current economy
Output and labor are solid: capex strong (much of it AI-related), profits up ~20%, credit spreads tight, lending standards easy, PDFP running near 3%, unemployment 4.1% and claims very low. He described this as consistent with full employment and said broad financial conditions are not restrictive.
Inflation is the problem: 12-month PCE at 3.7%, 6-month at 4.1%. Roughly half of PCE components are still rising more than 3%. Summer readings were better than expected but “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”
Medium-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored, which he credited to the institution—but he warned they can look durable “until they don’t.”
He took institutional ownership: “The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank.”
His standard for action: policymakers must be confident inflation is heading to 2% clearly and fast enough. Otherwise “we have work to do.”
Bottom Line
He closed by saying he is “committed to a discipline, not to a decision.”
That is consistent with his no-forward-guidance stance, but the economic diagnosis (strong demand, easy financial conditions, sticky and still-broad inflation) tilts toward keeping the option of a hike firmly on the table.
Finally, in case you were wondering, Warsh – who prefers a quieter Fed – spoke the most amount of words in his speech since Yellen in 2017…
Perhaps he just wanted to get all the words out now and then go silent? So the average word count over his tenure is lower?
* * *
Nothingburger or market upheaval?
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote address at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium this morning.
As we highlighted in our extensive preview, Warsh noted at the July FOMC meeting that his remarks could go in one of two directions: a “big-picture speech” or a “more traditional set up for all the action we’re going to have between September and December.”
How much will Kevin Warsh say in Jackson Hole today? That’s the question on investors’ minds.
Goldman Sachs economists expect Warsh to reiterate his commitment to the 2% inflation target, expand on the rationale behind his approach to Fed communication, and offer thoughts on some bigger picture topics such as productivity growth or shocks to the global economy that he alluded to at his last press conference (full note here).
He is likely to acknowledge the better recent inflation news but is unlikely to provide policy guidance.
Markets are looking for Warsh to clarify what combination of inflation, labor and financial conditions would cause him to recommend a change to policy, and whether the policy rate is his primary tool.
A notable lack of guidance at July’s FOMC press conference, after a more hawkish tone in June and during congressional testimonies, caught markets off guard and was ultimately a credibility-negative signal.
Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky calls the setup: “awkward when you committed to not giving forward guidance.”
His modal view is “nothing done.”
But warns the market of the possibility that Warsh waivers and tries: “a left tail of a more tough on inflation message that helps bring credibility back.”
That left tail only flattens the curve, he adds, if it arrives with Treasury increasing buybacks.
Goldman’s George Cole is less polite about the politics. Warsh, Cole says, seemed to endorse the July story that higher long-end yields meant the market was “finally standing on its own feet” after years of central-bank repression. Then Scott Bessent told that same market it had the price wrong. Cole’s line: “Philosophically, you can’t claim to want an unpolluted read of market pricing while bullying that same market.”
So he would be “surprised if he re-runs the July script and celebrates the move higher in long-end yields.”
What traders and Fed-watchers want instead is “vol-reducing: marginally hawkish near term, but fundamentally calming.”
Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech provides a timely opportunity for the Fed’s new leader to clarify his vision for the central bank, either through a “big picture” talk focused on the task forces or through a policy-relevant discourse that cleans up some missteps in recent communications and presents scenarios for the outlook. Given his overall inclination to provide limited information about the policy outlook, his comments will most likely skew to the former, though markets will be attentive to any additional signals on the latter.
Translation: say the funds rate is the tool, say the data looks fine, sound a little more like June on 2%. Do not celebrate the selloff. Also do not rule out that Warsh “may just deliver a speech on international payments and financial innovation and say nothing on policy at all.”
Reminder, there is no Q&A after the speech.
Watch Warsh live here (due to start at 10amET):
WRAP UP
Hawkish Fed Chair Warsh speech sends yields and dollar higher – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Friday, Aug 28, 2026 – 03:54 PM
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar up, Gold down
REAR VIEW: Fed Chair Warsh sounds hawkish at Jackson Hole, “Fed has more work to do unless confident underlying inflation is moving towards 2% objective”; NFP Annual Revision Prel -79K; UoM revisions top expectations; Sources told Axios that in recent days Iran has shown renewed interest in negotiations; Fed’s Collins said rate increase is warranted if inflation disappoints.
COMING UP: Holiday: UK Summer Bank Holiday; desk remains open as usual. Data: Japanese Retail Sales (Jul), Chinese NBS PMIs (Aug), German Inflation Flash (Aug). Events: BoJ Annual Review. Supply: EU.
WEEK IN FOCUS: Highlights include RBNZ, BoC, US NFP, ISM Manufacturing/Services, EZ CPI Prelim. Click here for the full report.
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
US stocks were on the backfoot as major gainers on Thursday pared initial strength on earnings (NVDA -4.6%, CRWD -4.2%). Today, Marvell earnings also weighed on indices, after earnings were considered disappointing given lower-than-expected gross margin guidance and the deferral of longer-term fiscal guidance.
Adding pressure to cyclical-exposed names was Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole proving hawkish. Warsh outlined that inflation remains a greater concern than employment, as expected, even in light of better-than-expected inflation figures through summer. Warsh’s clearer picture of the economy comforted the long-end after an underwhelming July press conference, allowing spreads to flatten. Short-end yields rallied as he noted the Fed has more work to do, unless progress towards its 2% inflation target resumes. In response, the dollar saw broad-based strength, the Treasury curve flattened, and spot gold was weighed by the renewed Fed rate hike bets; Barclays and SocGen see hikes in September and December.
At the same time as Warsh’s speech, the prelim NFP annual revision was -79k, and UoM final revisions were slightly better than expected, with the 1yr inflation expectation ticking down; price action was determined by Warsh.
Oil prices settled slightly lower with major developments on US-Iran absent. The new economic sanction approach, “Operation Economic Outcast”, has seemingly got underway with the Treasury set to sanction UAE branches of Egypt’s second-largest bank.
US
WARSH: Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech offered a little more than traders were anticipating; many had expected him to say little, given his bias against any forward guidance. Warsh’s message was heavily inflation-focused: he noted 12-month PCE was at 3.7%, and the six-month rate at 4.1%, both above target, and he stressed that more than half of PCE components are still rising above 3%. He said that underlying inflation trends “have not meaningfully improved,” despite the better-than-expected prints over the summer months. He said the Fed has more work to do, unless progress towards its 2% inflation target resumes. He again put price stability ahead of the labour side of the mandate, judging labour markets consistent with full employment. On growth and economic conditions, Warsh said the economy was resilient and strengthening, and pointed to AI-driven capex as a growth driver, adding that he would be “hard pressed” to call financial conditions restrictive, citing easy credit spreads, looser bank lending standards and firm equity markets. And that combination gives the Fed little urgency to ease. As expected, however, there was no explicit forward guidance: July’s FOMC majority preferred to wait for more data before moving, and Warsh reiterated guidance should stay “limited and circumscribed.” Accordingly, there was no explicit signal for the September meeting. In wake of the speech’s release, money market pricing tilted more hawkish, now assigning around a 50% probability of a rate hike at the September confab (vs around 36% prior to the release). It is also worth noting that Fed officials more broadly remain divided on the inflation outlook. This week, Kansas City Fed President Schmid (2028 voter) and Cleveland Fed President Hammack (2026 voter) argued current rates are not sufficiently restrictive and further tightening may be needed, while Boston Fed President Collins (2028 voter) described policy as mildly restrictive and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (2027 voter) said he is waiting for evidence on whether the inflation shock will persist.
HAMMACK (2026 voter): Cleveland Fed President already spoke a couple of times on Thursday, but in her remarks on Friday she does not see restrictive financial conditions. The hawk reiterated that it is time for the Fed to act by hiking rates, that waiting will create pain, and that they are committed to bringing inflation to its target. Hammack added she keeps an eye on the market to make decisions, and that markets are not a substitute for the Fed. Interest rates is the main and clearest tool for the Fed, and the balance sheet is reflecting many things, starting from the GFC.
GOOLSBEE (2027 voter): Agreed with Warsh about details of the economy and agrees inflation is the main issue right now. Pretty clear that inflation from overheated demand is hard to address, and that inflation has continued for longer than expected. Chicago Fed President was ok with holding rates steady at the July FOMC; note he is a non-voter.
UOM FINAL: Consumer Sentiment ended at 51.7 in August, above the expected 51.0, albeit -6% M/M. Current Conditions also declined to 51.9 from 54.8, slightly above the expected 51.8. Consumer Expectations fell to 51.5 from 55.4, above the 50.6 consensus. Inflation expectations ticked lower for the 1yr to 4.0% from 4.2% (exp. 4.3%), whilst the 5yr was unchanged at 3.3% as forecasted. UoM Economist Joanne Hsu wrote that “With ongoing policy uncertainty including the Iran conflict, consumers anticipate further increases in gasoline prices both in the short and long run”. Ahead, consumers expect their purchasing power to erode, “with a growing majority expecting inflation to outstrip income gains.”
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (U6) SETTLED 15 TICKS LOWER AT 108-03+
T-notes pressured by hawkish Warsh remarks that have sparked September rate hike bets. At settlement. 2-year +11.8bps at 4.352%, 3-year +10.3bps at 4.403%, 7-year +7.1bps at 4.595%, 10-year +4.8bps at 4.724%, 20-year +2.0bps at 5.209%, 30-year +1.5bps at 5.210%.
THE DAY: Treasuries bear flattened as a hawkish Fed Chair Warsh speech sent the short-end rallying, leaving money markets returning to pricing in a coin flip of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting. Warsh gave a more detailed view on the economy, which restored some confidence in the long-end, evidenced by the narrowing of the 2s30s (long-end was initially bid, but later reversed). Specifically, Warsh highlighted the inflation mandate as more concerning than that of the labour market, noting that summer inflationary readings were better-than-expected; the underlying trends have not meaningfully improved. Additionally, Warsh noted the Fed still has work to do unless underlying inflation is clearly moving towards the 2% goal at sufficient speed. However, the “work” needed comes with ambiguity as Warsh didn’t specify what that would mean, holding at current rates for longer or resuming tightening; perhaps, data from now until the next meeting will be the deciding factor.
At the same time as Warsh’s speech, the annual prelim NFP revisions saw a negative reading of 79k. Moreover, UoM final revisions for August topped expectations, with the 1yr inflation expectations now at 4.0% (prev. 4.2%) and the 5yr remaining at 3.3%. The impact of the data on price action was muted given Warsh’s overpowering remarks.
Elsewhere, other Fed speakers included 2026 voter Hammack continuing to call for tightening to address high inflation; meanwhile, 2027 voter Goolsbee said he agreed with Warsh’s details of the economy.
STIRS / OPERATIONS
Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Sept 14.4bps (prev. 8.5bps), Dec 37.8bps (prev. 27bps).
EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 111bln (prev. USD 112bln) on August 27th
SOFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 2.836tln (prev. USD 2.859tln) on August 27th
NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.175bln (prev. 0.456bln) across 1 counterparties (prev. 8) on August 28th
CRUDE
WTI (V6) SETTLED USD 0.13 LOWER AT 83.40/BBL; BRENT (X6) SETTLED USD 0.42 LOWER AT 88.10/BBL
The crude complex saw slight losses, albeit in tight ranges, as geopolitical newsflow was light on Friday, for a change. All in all, aside from central bank speakers at Jackson Hole, headline newsflow catalysts were sparse. The highlight from the symposium was Fed Chair Warsh, who stated the Fed has more work to do unless confident underlying inflation is moving towards the 2% objective. Back to US/Iran, two regional sources told Axios that in recent days Iran has shown renewed interest in negotiations, but no reaction was seen. Elsewhere, the US Treasury is set to sanction UAE branches of Egypt’s second-largest bank, “Banque Misr” for doing business with Iran, FT reports citing a Bessent statement, and is also to impose sanctions on the general manager of the Dubai branch of Iran’s Bank Melli and a Hong Kong-based company. This comes following Bessent’s announcement earlier in the week on ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ that if anyone doesn’t shut down economic activities with Iran, they’ll be sanctioned, and it isn’t a finite timeline. WTI traded between USD 82.25-83.78/bbl and Brent USD 87.26-88. 75/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.25% at 7,711, NDX -0.70% at 29,433, DJI -0.02% at 53,564, RUT -1.39% at 2,972
SECTORS: Technology -1.3%, Utilities -1.15%, Industrials -0.97%, Real estate -0.5%, Materials -0.3%, Health -0.28%, Financials +0.34%, Consumer staples +0.54%, Energy +0.59%, Communication services +1.56%, Consumer discretionary +1.69%
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.96% at 6,486, Dax 40 +0.82% at 26,583, FTSE 100 +0.29% at 10,824, CAC 40 +0.98% at 8,401, FTSE MIB +0.67% at 52,616, IBEX 35 +0.81% at 20,042, PSI +0.44% at 9,431, SMI +0.11% at 14,400, AEX +0.81% at 1,112
STOCK SPECIFICS
Nvidia (NVDA) reportedly paused its AI Compute Partnership revenue-sharing programme less than two months after launching it, citing employee concerns about potential antitrust scrutiny and the extent of control the company sought over customers’ business practices, WSJ reports.
Anthropic – A US judge ruled the Trump administration must lift its ban on Anthropic technology for federal agencies, finding the supply chain risk designation inadequately justified, Bloomberg reports.
Marvell (MRVL) – Shares fell after it only narrowly beat expectations; gross margin guidance came in at the low end of consensus, and investors were disappointed that longer-term fiscal guidance was deferred.
Workday (WDAY) – Shares edged higher in extended trading after a Q2 beat.
Autodesk (ADSK) – Shares fell after its Q3 and FY outlooks were below expectations. Q
Amazon (AMZN) – Signed long-term agreements to buy nearly 200MW of power from four Swedish wind farms developed by Eolus and OX2, Bloomberg reports.
Gap (GAP): – Shares rallied after a quarterly beat, and raised FY profit and margin outlooks.
PayPal (PYPL) – Shares fell following news that Advent and Stripe have abandoned their pursuit of PayPal after previously offering more than USD 50bln. The consortium could return if circumstances change.
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) – Shares gained after revenue and transaction volumes beat expectations, operating leverage improved and its outlook pointed to continued strong growth, supported by resilient consumer credit and merchant expansion.
SpaceX (SPCX) – Elon Musk said his best estimate for SpaceX reaching approximately USD 3.5tln in annual revenue is around 2033.
BioNTech (BNTX) ends its Phase 2 colorectal cancer clinical trial
Tyson Foods (TSN), JBS (JBS) – US President Trump says he is authorising legal documents to allow American farmers and ranchers to process their own food.
Chevron (CVX) and other US firms near deal to invest billions in Venezuelan oil fields, WSJ reports.
US appeals court rejects Kalshi’s bid for injunction to block Nevada Gaming regulators’ oversight of sports events contracts; FLUT and DKNG gained.
FX
The Dollar Index saw strength on Friday and gained after Fed Chair Warsh’s remarks; the Chair remarked that inflation data don’t suggest the trend has meaningfully improved, and that the 2% PCE objective is firm and there’s work to do if inflation is not moving fast enough to 2%. Overall, the Chair gave a little bit more than expected and was net hawkish, and as such, following his remarks, front-end rates are higher and back-end rates lower as a reaction. There were other Fed speakers, Goolsbee and Hammack, who both spoke yesterday and said little new. On the data front, Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prelim was -79k.
All G10 FX saw losses against the Greenback on the aforementioned Warsh speech, as opposed to any currency-specific newsflow. As expected, there was plenty of central bank speak at Jackson Hole; BoE Governor Bailey remarked that they are seeing quite subdued second-round effects so far and can watch this situation for now, and cannot promise that muted second-round effects will continue. From the ECB Dolenc, Kazaks, and Kocher gave remarks, but little reaction was seen in the single-currency EUR. Elsewhere, while OATs saw some weakness at the open, EUR was steady in the wake of the French Presidential debate. Focus now shifts to Fitch’s rating on France this evening, seen unchanged, and the Socialist party, which is set to unveil demands for France’s 2027 budget over the weekend.
USA DATA RELEASES
US Job Growth Revised Lower By 79,000 In Annual Benchmark Estimate
Friday, Aug 28, 2026 – 11:40 AM
In our preview of today’s preliminary benchmark revision of US jobs – published by the BLS ‘conveniently’ just as Kevin Warsh started to speak – we said that according to Goldman calculations, for the first time in 3 years and just the second time since 2018, the BLS was going to revisedpayrolls modestly higher “based on the nine months of data released since the last benchmarked period, March 2025.”
Specifically, Goldman’s economists expected “a preliminary upward revision on the order of 50-450k which would translate to a 5-40k upward revision to monthly payroll growth over April 2025-March 2026. A final revision of this magnitude would result in the average pace of payroll growth over April 2025-March 2026 being revised up from about 25k/month currently to 30-65k/month.”
Alas, for one more year, it was not meant to be, and this morning the BLS announced that according to the preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES), the 2026 benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000. While just why of a positive revision, it was a far cry from last year’s record 911K negative job revision. For context, annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have had absolute average of 0.2% of total nonfarm employment.
Additionally, the revision for total private employment was -178,000, which means that government jobs were revised higher by 99K.
The 178,000 negative revision for private payrolls in the year through March reflected weakness in retail trade, education and health services, manufacturing and business services. Employment increased in transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities and construction.
It is likely that the final final revision will actually tip into the positive. In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2027 with the publication of the January 2027 Employment Situation news release. As we noted earlier, preliminary estimates for the benchmark revision tend to understate the final revision: the nextx chart shows that the preliminary estimate has been below the final revision in each of the last six years, by roughly 100k on average, which suggests that today’s -79K print will end up being in the +20K ballpark. This reflects that the QCEW itself has been revised up in every quarter since 2019 with the exception of 2020 H1, potentially reflecting ongoing issues with initial submissions to the administrative records that inform the QCEW
Before today’s revision, government payrolls data indicated employers added 211,000 jobs in the year through March on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or an average of 17,600 per month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The preliminary benchmark revision suggests average job growth was likely closer to 11,000 a month.
Preliminary benchmark revisions have now lowered employment estimates in seven of the past eight years. Even so, the latest adjustment suggests that the labor market is roughly balanced – with employers slow to hire new workers but also slow to fire existing staff.
The BLS each year benchmarks the March payrolls level to a more accurate but less timely data source called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages that’s based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers nearly all US jobs. While the new information improves the accuracy of its data, the process has gained additional attention in recent years.
Last year’s preliminary adjustment slashed employment estimates by the most on record, reigniting White House criticism of the BLS. About one month prior to the 2025 preliminary benchmark release, President Donald Trump fired the agency’s leader after a separate monthly report showed weak job growth. The Senate confirmed Trump’s pick to lead the BLS – Brett Matsumoto – on Aug. 7. Matsumoto, a PhD economist and BLS veteran, now helms an agency responsible for publishing some of the most market-moving statistics in the world.
What is behind the chronic negative revisions? First, there is the chronically wrong birth-death model, discussed extensively here in recent years. Yet just 14% of last year’s very large revision can be attributed to miscalibration of the birth-death model; the bulk instead falls into the residual category which would capture the reporting error arising from a systematic undercount of unauthorized workers.
As we discussed first a few years ago when we correctly previewed the massive negative revisions to 2023 and 2024 data, since the QCEW is based on unemployment insurance records, it likely excludes most unauthorized workers, who contributed to employment growth in the periods covered by those benchmark revisions. In most cases unauthorized workers do not qualify for unemployment insurance, so employers might see little reason to pay unemployment insurance tax on their behalf and might even see it as a needless risk in the cases of any immigrants they are employing who do not yet have work permits.
As such, the Trump admin’s aggressive purging of illegal aliens – and workers – has led to significant real-time overestimates of the labor market in the monthly series, which are then revised away every year once it becomes clear that there were far fewer illegal aliens in the workforce.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
MARYLAND
Judge Crushes Maryland Democrats’ Gerrymandering Games
Annapolis Democrats spent months insisting there was nothing to see here. On Tuesday, a Maryland judge told them otherwise — in writing, and in language sharper than anyone expected.
The bottom line: a circuit court judge just ruled that House Bill 2100, the constitutional amendment Governor Wes Moore and legislative Democrats rammed through a two-day special session to pave the way for wiping out Maryland’s last Republican congressional seat, was placed on the November ballot unlawfully.
This is the story of how we got here.
The Setup: A Map They Already Lost Once
In 2021, Maryland Democrats were hell-bent on maximizing their control of the state at every level. Already the most gerrymandered state in the union, they drew an 8-0, all-Democrat congressional map which now-Vice Chair of the Maryland Freedom Caucus, Delegate Kathy Szeliga, took to court. Judge Lynne Battaglia struck it down in a 95-page opinion grounded in the Maryland Constitution and Declaration of Rights. The current 7-1 congressional delegation is the product of both parties compromising in 2022.
In pursuit of a potential 2028 presidential run, Governor Wes Moore began pressuring legislative leaders to eliminate the state’s last Republican seat — held by Congressman Andy Harris (MD-1), who also chairs the House Freedom Caucus. The House of Delegates passed a bill to do exactly that in February, HB 488, but it stalled and died in the Senate. Senate President Bill Ferguson worried it would invite a court to reaffirm Judge Battaglia’s 2022 ruling and hand Republicans an even more favorable map. He held his ground even after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries showed up in Annapolis to lean on him personally.
Then the political ground shifted. When the U.S. Supreme Court narrowed how far the Voting Rights Act can justify race-based congressional districting, several states began eyeing mid-cycle redistricting — Maryland among them. Not to be outdone by Gavin Newsom, Governor Moore called a special session for August to finish what he couldn’t in February: eliminate Congressman Harris through a constitutional amendment designed to make sure Judge Battaglia’s ruling could never stand in the way again.
The Special Session: Two Days, One Outcome Predetermined
While most of the Maryland General Assembly was on summer vacation, the Maryland Freedom Caucus was at work — researching, planning, and preparing. Before July 31, our strategy to defeat the redistricting amendment was already set. We had found a problem in the Democrats’ plan that no one else seemed to catch: Senate Bill 29, signed into law in May 2026.
SB 29 amended Maryland’s election law to include real reforms for ballot questions — plain language, no legal jargon, a policy statement telling voters exactly what would change if a measure passed. It also set a hard deadline: ballot language for a constitutional amendment had to be submitted to the Secretary of State by July 1 in an election year, giving the public a 15-day comment period to weigh in. For a special session that didn’t convene until August 3, that meant Democrats had already blown their own deadline by more than a month.
Roughly fifty minutes before the committee hearing on HB 2100 — with the outcome predetermined despite overwhelming opposition registered to testify — Democrats slipped in a clause designed to nullify that deadline entirely. The clause, a non obstante provision, stated that “notwithstanding any other provision of law,” the language they’d written would go straight to the ballot in November.
When pressed on it, in committee and on the floor, House Democrats’ answer amounted to this: they write the rules, so the rules don’t bind them. They ignored parliamentary procedure, the single-subject requirement, and the very election law they had codified themselves — all to ram through a measure that would let them rewrite congressional districts whenever and however they wanted.
The bill passed both chambers by August 4, 2026, and was on its way to the ballot — until the Maryland Freedom Caucus, together with Senate Minority Leadership, filed suit on August 6, represented by the legal team at the Oversight Project. It wasn’t a random pairing. Several members of that legal team are Marylanders themselves — people with a personal stake in whether their own state’s Constitution means anything, not just outside lawyers parachuting in for a headline case.
The Lawsuit: Not Just “They Missed a Deadline”
The complaint, Howell v. Maryland State Board of Elections, was built on the legislature’s own paper trail. It argued four things: that Democrats missed deadlines mandated by current election law; that they misrepresented the non obstante clause as a mere “technical” update; that they violated the single-subject rule by combining a constitutional amendment with an unrelated procedural override; and that the ballot language itself — having bypassed the required comment period and plain-language standard — was written in a way that misled voters.
That last point matters most. The text for Question 3 on the State Board of Elections website says the amendment will merely “clarify” that Maryland’s legislative-district rules — requiring districts to be compact and respectful of natural boundaries — do not apply to congressional districts. But a judge already ruled otherwise, back in 2022. That’s not a clarification at all, it’s the elimination of a barrier that stood between Democrats and total control.
Oral Arguments: The State’s Defense Was “The Rules Don’t Apply to Us”
Tuesday morning, August 25, we argued our case before Judge Robert Thompson in Circuit Court for Anne Arundel County. Attorney Jeffrey Clark argued for the Oversight Project. Assistant Attorney General Daniel Kobrin argued for the State.
Attorney Jeffrey Clark argued for the Oversight Project and knocked it out of the park. The team’s command of the record, from the SB 29 timeline down to the exact language of the ballot question, was the product of weeks of meticulous preparation, not a rushed filing. For a legal team with Maryland roots of its own, this case was never just a job.
Kobrin’s argument boiled down: SB 29’s deadlines only bind the process when the Secretary of State drafts the ballot question. When the legislature writes the language itself, apparently, the deadlines evaporate. In his own words to the court: “There’s no blackout period set by the constitution.”
Read that argument again. It isn’t a claim that Democrats complied with the law. It’s a claim that the law simply doesn’t apply to the people who wrote it, provided they cut out the middleman.
The Ruling: Three Ways to Lose
On Wednesday, Judge Robert J. Thompson didn’t split the baby. He granted the plaintiffs’ motion for summary judgment, denied the State’s, and enjoined the Board of Elections from placing Question 3 on the November ballot — stayed pending the State’s expected appeal to the Supreme Court of Maryland.
Ground one: Thompson rejected the State’s “we wrote it ourselves so the deadline doesn’t count” theory outright: “Because the legislature did not follow the very laws it enacted, the court finds the enactment of HB2100 to be legally deficient.”
Ground two — the one that should actually sting: the judge ruled that the ballot question’s use of the word “clarifies” is misleading. The court found nothing in the record supporting the idea that Maryland’s compactness rules were ever understood to exclude congressional districts — because Judge Battaglia had already settled that question in 2022. Thompson’s opinion states that “clarifies” is “intentionally misleading, and this should disqualify the ballot question as currently written.”
Ground three: the ballot question illegally bundled two different subjects — the districting-standards change and a brand-new grant of jurisdiction to the Maryland Supreme Court — into a single question, violating the state’s single-subject requirement for referred amendments.
The injunction is stayed while the State appeals to the Supreme Court of Maryland, meaning Question 3 remains on the ballot for the moment. The fight moves to the state’s highest court.
But the finding already on the books doesn’t go away: a Maryland judge has now ruled, in writing, that the word Democrats used to sell this amendment to voters was intentionally misleading. That’s not an opposition talking point. That’s a court record.
None of this happens without the Oversight Project. Their legal team’s work on this case was top-notch from the first filing to the final argument — professional, exhaustively prepared, and, for several team members, personal. These are Marylanders who understood exactly what was at stake for their own state, and it showed in every page of the brief and every minute in that courtroom.
Delegate Matt Morgan, Chair of the Maryland Freedom Caucus, put it plainly: “A chamber that holds a supermajority is still a chamber bound by the law.” Apparently, on Wednesday, a judge agreed.
END
States Race To Cut Food Stamp Errors Before Penalties Kick In
States are racing to reduce faulty payments to food stamp recipients, in a bid to avoid penalties included in the signature budget bill passed by Republicans last year.
Starting in October 2027, states with payment error rates of 6 percent or higher must cover 5, 10, or 15 percent of SNAP benefit costs, depending on the payment error rate.
Even though the deadline is more than a year out, enrollment in the program has dropped by more than 5 million recipients as a result of the stricter rules, according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.
Forty-one states and the District of Columbia made improper payments of more than 6 percent in 2025, according to the Department of Agriculture. Nearly half of states will have to pay more than $100 million in penalties, according to publicly available federal data.
Just nine states fell below the 6 percent error threshold in the 2025 fiscal year: Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
Four states are considering dropping the food stamp program entirely as a result of the new rules, according to a survey by the American Public Human Services Association.
California, New York, and Florida would be responsible for more than $1 billion in SNAP costs if they failed to reduce their rates of erroneous payments. Texas would owe around $750 million.
For several states, however, a provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill delays the cost-sharing requirement for an additional two years. Nicknamed “the Alaska Carveout,” the provision allows states with improper payment rates of 13.34 percent or higher in fiscal 2025 to put off the cost-sharing requirement until fiscal 2029.
Similarly, states exceeding that threshold in fiscal 2026 can put off cost-sharing until fiscal 2030.
In addition to next year’s deadline, beginning this October, states will bear 75 percent of the costs to administer the food stamp program.That’s up from the 50 percent share paid by states since the program was started in 1964.
The tighter rules address a “financing mismatch” in the food stamp program, according to the Cato Institute, a policy research organization. For decades, states have processed SNAP applications and distributed benefits, while financial consequences have fallen overwhelmingly on federal taxpayers. That gives states little incentive to control waste and prevent fraud.
SNAP payment errors totaled more than $10 billion in 2025. More than 87 percent of that amount was due to overpayments.
‘Significant Waste’
SNAP is a federally funded program, administered by the states, that provides food benefits to low-income families. In 2025, federal taxpayers spent about $103 billion on SNAP benefits and nearly $7 billion in administrative fees.
With an overall error rate of 10.6 percent, nearly one in nine food stamp allotments went to an ineligible recipient or was paid in the wrong amount.
State agencies made improper payments mainly because they did not verify recipients’ eligibility criteria, such as citizenship, employment, finances, identity, residency, and household size, before making a payment, according to the Government Accountability Office.
Although the 2025 error rate decreased slightly from previous years, it still showed “significant waste” at the state level, according to a June statement from the Department of Agriculture.
Errors can stem from either state agencies or recipients. While state agencies can make mistakes when updating recipient information or processing payments, recipients may also forget to report income changes or additional family members.
Those are “honest mistakes” rather than intentional fraud, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities said in a July report. Even so, the errors prove that “state accountability is severely lacking in SNAP,” Rollins said in a June statement.
After the One Big Beautiful Bill Act took effect in July 2025, participation in the food stamp program dropped 12 percent-more than 5 million-to 37 million this April, according to Department of Agriculture data released in July.
Rollins attributed the decline to the administration’s crackdown on fraud and ineligible recipients.
The downward trend may continue, as 11 states reported that they may narrow eligibility policies when costs change.
State Response
Error rates might not reflect the true picture of how a state distributes money, historical reports suggest.
A 2015 audit by the Office of Inspector General found that states hired outside consultants and error review committees to mitigate individual errors identified by quality control, rather than addressing the root causes of eligibility inaccuracies.
And in 2014, the Department of Agriculture could not validate state-reported error rates in 42 of 53 state agencies because of date-quality issues.
Nonetheless, a July survey of 39 states from the American Public Human Services Association found that agencies across the country are “working incredibly hard” to reduce error rates by addressing root causes.
States reported that they will invest in workforce training, root-cause analysis, and technology upgrades to improve payment accuracy.
Virginia, which would face 15 percent cost-sharing based on its 2025 errors, has stopped self-attestation of eligibility since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed.
It previously allowed applicants to self-report expenses and incomes.
Louisiana is offering a $1,500 bonus to staff who maintain an error rate of 4 percent or lower.
The agency is also automating checks on household income to reduce unintentional errors, which account for 62 percent of the state’s inaccuracies, according to the think tank Invest in Louisiana.
Mississippi is updating its 35-year-old eligibility systems to ensure program integrity, according to the Mississippi Department of Human Services.
Minnesota is investing millions of dollars to modernize decades-old technology used to administer state programs, according to the Minnesota House of Representatives.
Each change suggests that new financial accountability rules are making a difference, according to the American Enterprise Institute.
The American Public Human Services Association survey reported trade-offs for increased accuracy, including timeliness of benefit payments and a delay in EBT chip card implementation.
And four states indicated that they may drop out of SNAP altogether or pause participation in the program as a result of the cost-sharing provisions. The survey report did not disclose which states are considering dropping out of the program.
The American Public Human Services Association did not respond to a request for comment.
The ‘Alaska Carveout’
Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, states with error rates at 13.34 percent or higher will secure a two-year delay in cost sharing. The “Alaska Carveout” provision was negotiated and secured by Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) prior to voting on the budget bill.
In a July 2025 letter to Alaskans, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) said the state had worked hard to include delayed cost-sharing in the act because it had the highest payment error rate in the country.
The provision currently affects six states and the District of Columbia. Those include Alaska, New Mexico, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, and Oregon.
But the exemption may precipitate a reverse effect by rewarding the worst-performing states while penalizing those working to reduce their error rates, according to a July report from the Cato Institute.
To delay penalties, states could slow efforts in correcting errors and keep improper payment rates elevated, according to the think tank.
Data Sharing
In an effort to overhaul fraud, waste, and abuse in government programs, the Trump administration is pushing to codify data sharing between states and the federal government.
“We need to know where your tax dollars are going, and if the state of California and the state of New York aren’t going to tell us, we need Congress to force them to tell us,” Vice President JD Vance told a fraud task force roundtable on Aug. 5.
Technological verification and data-sharing measures can solve the majority of integrity problems in government programs, said Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff for policy.
BOJ deputy governor Himino calls for ‘timely’ rate hike:
“As we are still pressing on the accelerator, or keeping financial conditions accommodative, I believe we will need to ease off in a timely manner through rate hikes,” he said. “In doing so, we need to check various bits of information” including economic and price developments and financial conditions, Himino said. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/boj-deputy-governor-himino-calls-021657135.html
@SamanthaLaDuc: Here is another example of the vendor-financed demand story: 1. Nvidia holds equity in CoreWeave 2. THEN sells CoreWeave the chips 3. AND backstops them with $6.3 billion valuation 4. WHICH CoreWeave takes to a bank (signed customer contract) 5. TO BORROW AGAINST and buy more GPUs. Yes, it’s legal but that doesn’t make it any less round-tripping!! AND when CRWV data center capacity isn’t fully used by its own customers, NVDA is OBLIGATED to buy the unsold capacity through April 2032. So Nvidia sells and funds and backstops the buyer. That’s another way of saying: DEMAND IS NOT REAL, but it is “guaranteed”.
@kshaughnessy2: NVDA in the (10Q) filings: Nvidia will cover up to $105 BILLION of the land, power, and empty building if OpenAI can’t pay for the giant Ohio AI campus SoftBank is building. This is like a parent co-signing a car loan and calling it “mobility assistance.” OpenAI rents this campus for 20 years and can only use NVIDIA chips. NVIDIA calls it “credit support”. It’s Nvidia paying the bill so a big customer can keep buying from it.https://x.com/DarioCpx/status/2092849553405833475
Fed’s Hammack (Cleveland Pres) says ‘now is the time to act’ on raising interest rates “I don’t want to prejudge anything. But I believe now is the time to act,” she said in a live interview from the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. “I believe that we’ve been in an inflationary situation for more than five years. It’s been running well above our target. I don’t see any restriction in policy when I look at financial conditions and when I talk to market participants.”… “The longer inflation stays above our objective, the harder it will be for us to bring it back down, and the more pain that individuals and businesses are going to be experiencing,” she said. “To me, the real problem with us missing on our inflation objective for so long is the risk that an inflationary mindset starts to set in with the public.”… Hammack said she recently met with workers in Erie, Pa., who “were all saying that they’re feeling a sense of despair. They’re working every day, coming in, they’ve got good jobs, and yet they still feel like they can’t make ends meet. They can’t go and afford an ice cream cone on the weekend with their kids.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/27/feds-hammack-says-now-is-the-time-to-act-on-raising-interest-rates.html
Hammack also said, “Treasury has its own objectives; Fed operates independently for its own goals.”
@AtlantaFed Aug 26: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data by incorporating BEA data in addition to updated nowcasts from the @ClevelandFed and Atlanta Fed: https://atlfed.org/4cF7YK4 (Fed Fund Target Rate is substantially lower than various Taylor Rule models: 4.4% to 6.88%!)
Nvidia hit a high of 227.24, +17.58 or +8.38% at 11:03 ET. Salesforce was +21.9%, CRWD +18.3%, Micron -2.04%; SanDisk -1.9%; PLTR +4.35%; S&P Info Tech +2.7%; the S&P 500 was +0.58%.
All other S&P Sectors at the time were negative: Energy -1.18%, Consumer Staples -1.12%, Utes -1.05%, Comm Services -0.72%, Industrials -0.69%, Consumer Discretionary -0.66%, Real Estate -0.64%, Materials -0.58%, Health Care -0.5%, Financials -0.45% (Sell everything, buy AI Bubble stocks!)
Near 11:01 ET: USUs +7/32; Dec Gold -$8.9; Dec Copper -3.05c; Oct WTI Oil -$0.20; Oct Brent +$0.56, Oct Diesel -5.65¢, Oct Gasoline +1.35c; Yen/$ 159.301
The S&P 500 Index gapped higher and opened at 7710.34 (+34.64). After a retreat to the daily low of 7689.89 at 9:35 ET, the index rallied to 7728.98 (+53.18) at 11:20 ET. After a drop to 7711.62 at 11:46 ET, the S&P 500 Index rallied to a daily high of 7739.15 at 13:10 ET. The index then sank to 7710.17 at 14:55 ET. The late manipulation pushed the S&P 500 Index to a close of 7730.99, +55.29 or +0.72%.
Positive aspects of previous session S&P 500 +0.72%, DJIA +0.2%, Nasdaq +1.57%, Nas 100 +1.4%, SOX +2.33%; Info Tech +3.4% USUs rallied to +2/32 at NYSE close from -11/32 low. WTI, Brent, and Diesel down modestly. Salesforce +22.58%, NVDA +8.74%, Intel +4.36%
Negative aspects of previous session Bubble, Bubble, toil, and trouble! “Investors” & traders poured into AI issues and trading sardines. Every S&P Sector except Info Tech was negative! Is this concentrated buying? DJTA -0.66%, DJUA -0.81%, SP Comm Services -0.75%, Consumer Discretion -1.02%, Consumer Staples -1.5%, Industrials -0.84%, Materials -0.74%, Real Estate -0.92%; Healthcare -1.1%; Financials -0.58%, Energy -0.7%, Utes -0.75%; the yen/$ 159.401 and USUs -5/32 at 16:30 ET Oct WTI Oil +$1.36, Oct Brent +1.75, Oct Diesel +2.41C, Oct Gasoline +1.92¢ at 16:30
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will AI stocks do after Nvidia’s results?
First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour:Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7720.01 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7739.15 (13:10 ET); 7689.89 (9:35 ET)
Fed Balance Sheet: -$14.787B on MBS -$ 17.143B; Reserves: -$10.351B
@ekwufinance: The US can’t afford higher rates… Bessent and Warsh know that. – In the next 12 months, around $8T of Treasuries need to be rolled. – The average coupon is ~3.3%. The US10y yield is ~4.7%. Rolling that $8T at today’s US10y level would add $112B in annual interest costs, and that’s before you factor in the interest burden on an ongoing $2T annual deficit. Volcker could crush inflation with double‑digit rates because inflation had already driven debt‑to‑GDP down from about 120% to around 30%. Today we are back at 120%… First you inflate the debt away, then you raise rates to kill inflation. We are in the inflation part of the cycle… you know what that means. (Chart at link) https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2092631436117336499
WSJ on Thursday night: Nvidia Pauses Revenue-Sharing Deals with AI Cloud Companies The company is rethinking the program less than two months after announcing it. Nvidia paused some deals in a new financing initiative that offered credit support to AI cloud providers in exchange for a share of revenue, according to people familiar with the matter.
Some Nvidia employees expressed concern to current and potential customers that the program could draw antitrust scrutiny, and said there are sensitivities around the extent to which the chip giant can dictate how their customers do business, the people said…
Today – The known universe breathlessly awaits Fed Chair Warsh’s Keynote Speech from the KC Fed Jackson Hole Symposium at 10:00 ET. The new Fed Chair will try to thread the needle between talking tough on inflation, which Mr. Bond desires, and not bursting the AI bubble, which Team Trump and Street bulls demand and on which they depend. Warsh must also assuage the growing chorus of Fed hawks.
Warsh, so far, appears to allow more freedom of speech from Fed officials. Fed hawks have become more vocal, and 65 months of being well above 2% inflation is emboldening them.
Thursday’s session was bubblicious. The S&P Info Tech Sector was +3.4%. All other sectors were negative. This is obviously not a good technical dynamic! This implies that Nvidia, after Warsh, is the key to today’s activity. If Thursday was a short covering and momentum buying climax, only manipulation to game August performance will keep NVDA buoyant.
Expected Economic Data: August UM Consumer Sentiment 51, Current Conditions 51.8, Expectations 50.6, 1-year Inflation 4.3%, 5-10-year Inflation 3.3%
ESUs -10.75, NQUs are -76.50, USUs +1/32; WTI Oil -$0.04; Gasoline +0.05¢, ¥/$ 159.37 at 20:10 ET.
S&P 500 50-eay MA: 7558; 100-day MA: 7422; 200-day MA: 7113 (S&P 500 Close 7730.99) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,754; 100-day MA: 51,262; 200-day MA: 49,683 (DJIA Close 53,569.44) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
WSJ: FAA Found LaGuardia Air-Traffic Controllers Left Work Early Before Deadly Collision The agency is moving to fire the two controllers, who left about an hour before their shifts ended.
Trump posted a poster of himself at the top rung of US Presidents – “The Greatest” He inexplicably has Wilson under “Great” with FDR, Lincoln, Washington, Jefferson, and Jackson. Reagan and both Bushes are not listed anywhere on the poster. “Failures” include Biden, Obama, Carter. https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/2093089221091148021/photo/1
WSJ: Republican Efforts to Prosecute Fauci for Contempt Hit a Wall Some administration officials are skeptical whether the current approach is procedurally sound enough to indict the retired public-health official… (Others have been prosecuted and convicted on less! Why is Team Trump protecting Fauci? Who supported, elevated, and enabled Fauci at the start of Covid?)
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GEORGIA USA
Your Tax Dollars At Work: Georgia Teacher Creates ‘Fart Corner’ In Classroom, Calls It The ‘Gas Station’
Thursday, Aug 27, 2026 – 07:40 PM
An Atlanta elementary school teacher has created a designated “fart corner” where students can pass gas without leaving class or interrupting lessons, according to NBC.
Second grade teacher Candy Sydney Browning calls the area the “gas station,” while the specific spot is known as the “gusty winds area.” Students can quietly get up, walk to the corner, take care of business and return to their seats without asking permission.
Sydney Browning came up with the idea after noticing that bathroom trips and students reacting to classmates passing gas were taking time away from lessons. She had already started encouraging students to use the restroom before lessons so they would not need to leave as often. Passing gas, however, created another distraction. Students would point fingers, move away from one another and announce who they thought was responsible.
Rather than treating it as something embarrassing, Sydney Browning wanted students to understand that passing gas is simply a normal bodily function. “It’s normal,” she told them. “But you have to excuse yourself.” Creating a specific area gave students a discreet way to do that without stopping the lesson.
They do not need to raise their hands or ask for permission, which means Sydney Browning can continue teaching while the student briefly steps away.
NBC writes that the idea soon became a normal part of classroom life. Sydney Browning said the first student to use the station attracted a few smiles and curious looks from classmates. However, no one pointed fingers or made fun of him, and eventually students stopped paying attention altogether.
“It just became a norm,” she told TODAY. She said the station has become so ordinary that she sometimes forgets it is even there.
After Browning shared the setup on TikTok, the unusual classroom rule received widespread attention. Thousands of viewers reacted to the idea, with some praising it as a clever way to normalize bodily functions while keeping students focused. Several teachers said they wanted to introduce similar areas in their own classrooms, while others shared that they already had their own versions of a designated fart area.
Not everyone was convinced. Some commenters worried that students who use the corner frequently could feel embarrassed or become targets for teasing. Others questioned whether children could really ignore a classmate walking across the room specifically to pass gas. Sydney Browning believes making the practice routine is exactly what prevents it from becoming a bigger issue. When adults and students stop treating it as something shocking or funny, it becomes less interesting.
END
BALTIM,ORE MARYAND
Moody’s Downgrades Baltimore City’s Credit Rating Amid Population Collapse
Thursday, Aug 27, 2026 – 06:50 PM
Moody’s Ratings downgraded Democrat-led Baltimore City’s bond rating this week, highlighting a rapidly deteriorating financial situation as declining reserves, depleted utility funds, and mounting borrowing costs strain the crime-ridden metro area best known for the hit HBO series The Wire.
Local outlet Fox Baltimore reports that the ratings agency lowered Baltimore’s rating from Aa2 to Aa3, citing “declining fund balance and cash levels across all government operations,” with much of the deterioration concentrated in utility and internal-service funds.
Moody’s explained that the city’s finances have weakened since the COVID-19 pandemic, despite efforts and forecasts aimed at stabilizing reserves. The new Aa3 rating remains investment grade, but the downgrade suggests that the municipal bond market will demand a higher rate when lending to the city.
In a statement, the ratings agency said the downgrade “reflects the trend of declining fund balance and cash levels across all government operations, largely concentrated in the utility and internal service funds.”
Economist Anirban Basu warned that the city’s financial position is deteriorating and that this is “not great news.”
“This is a city now with over $4 billion in outstanding bonds, outstanding debt in that form,” said Basu. “And the decline in the bond rating from Aa2 to Aa3 simply means that when the city goes to float its next set of bonds, it’s going to pay more interest or higher interest rates on those bonds, which makes financing infrastructure and other city expenditures more expensive.”
Basu continued, “A lot of our fiscal concerns, including how much we want to spend on education, how much we need to spend on infrastructure, and the fact that other city funds have also been downgraded, including the water, sewer, and internal service funds, have been downgraded recently.”
Fox Baltimore stopped short of addressing a much deeper structural problem: Baltimore has seen a massive exodus of residents, losing more than 70,000 residents, or about 11% of its population, over the past two decades.
That population collapse (back to 100-year lows) has eroded the city’s tax base while leaving fewer residents to support its debt, infrastructure, and public-service obligations, making the city widely unaffordable for many of the productive residents, hence the population exodus.
Years of progressive policy experiments, elevated violent crime, and left-wing governance in City Hall have transformed the city into an epic fiscalmess and, by some standards, a failed city.
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