EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,286.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/25/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 09/29/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
905 C ADM 10 10
TOTAL: 11 11
MONTH 4183
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT./2026: 11 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 1100 OZ or 0.0342 TONNES
total notices so far: 4183 contracts FOR 418,300 OZ OR 13.010 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES:44 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.220 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 6702 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 33.510 million oz
GLD
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING: 24.172 MILLION OZ//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 3 CONTRACT OR 13,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 33.515 MILLION OZ//
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING 8.756 MILLION OZ//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 13,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 33.515 MILLION OZ
GOLD COMEX OUTLINE;
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F 0.0062 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.824TONNES
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNESS TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 OZ OR 6.220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS FOR 3,900 OZ OR 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING: 8.756 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 11 CONTRACTS OR 1100 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.0342 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO, 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES//// // NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.2308 TONNES..
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 166 CONTRACTS WITH 1073 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 907 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 166 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED AND CRIMINAL 502 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON LIKE TODAY .
GOLD PRICE ROSE BY $23.30
STANDING FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS JANUARY TO AUGUST:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.08 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES/ PLUS 0.0062 TONNES EX FOR RISK///NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 40.824TONNES.
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 1.552 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF: 1.7045//TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 3.3312 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS FOR 0.6220 TONNES/TO OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.0155 TONNES//TOTALL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 TONNES TO OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.756 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1100 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.0342TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND 1000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO OUR FIRST: THUS// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 6.2208 TONNES// NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.2308 TONNES.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
YEAR 2026:
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 163.82 TONNES
AUGUST: 151.107 TONNES
SEPT: 86.488 TONNES
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SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 64.75 PTS OR 1.67%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 137.42 PTS OR 0.54%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 456.20 PTS OR 0.65%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.16%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7105
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7157 Oil UP TO 96.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 108.65 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7105 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7157 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMITS
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE 1378 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 106,406
EFP ISSUANCE 0 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 0 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1379 CONTRACTSAND ADD TO THE 0 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 1377 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.80
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 6.885 MILLION PAPER OZ
STANDING SEPT AT 33.515 MILLION OZ
SILVER PRICE GAIN OF $0.80
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LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 1073 CONTRACTS TO 407,272 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD NO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING HOURS// . IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE AGAIN OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (671 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $23.30)
WE THUS HAD A SMALL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (166 CONTRACTS), DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A SMALL CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 907 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. TOTAL THUS SO FAR THIS MONTH: 2000 CONTRACTS//200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES (2 OCCASIONS)
MONTH OF MAY RECORD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK: THE HIGHEST EVER ISSUANCE!!
MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND AUGUST
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY: 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES (5 OCCASIONS THIS MONTH)
SEPT: SO FAR: 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNESS (TWO OCCASIONS)
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO SEPT:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 131+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THIS IS A CENTRAL BANK
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES//5 OCCASIONS
SEPT: SO FAR: 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES/TWO OCCASIONS
DETAILS ON OUR NEW SEPT COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 166 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE (UP $23.30). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY/AUG CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A SMALL SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 502 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
THEN IT SLOWS DOWN!
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: 2 SO FAR FOR 200 IZ IR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES
SEPT: 2000 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES (TWO OCCASIONS)
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 141+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 16 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2025
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 40.818TONNES PLUS 0.00622 TONNES EXHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTAL 40.824 TONNES . TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 17.5802 TONNES OR 0.8790 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
AUGUST INITIAL; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STANDS: 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 220 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR 0.6220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST: 0.0715 NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.9688 TONNES AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS OR 3900 OZ (0.1213 TONNES)//STANDING, IN TOTAL, THUS ADVANCES HUGELY TO 67.2441 TONNES.
SEPT/2026. INITIAL STANDING : 8.756 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAYS QUEUE JUMP OF 11,700 OZ OR 0.3639 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THIS TO OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2,000 CONTRACTS/200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES: /NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.1974 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE 4 YEARS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPT CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT ROSE BY $23.30).
WE HAD NO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING //FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE AT COMEX OF $23.30
WE HAD 837 ZERO CONTRACTS REMOVED // PRELIMINARY NUMBERS TO FINAL COMEX NUMBERS.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 166 CONTRACTS OR 16,600 OZ 0.516 TONNES
SEPT DELIVERY MONTH
SEPT 28
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 2 ENTRIES i) Out of Delaware 192.900 ooz ii) Out of Manfra; 128.604 oz total withdrawal: 353.655 oz |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 1 ENTRIES I) INTO ASAHI: 32,016.195 OZ TOTAL DEPOSIT; 32,016.195 O xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 11 CONTRACTS 1100 OZ 0.0342 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 0 Contracts 0 OZ 0.000 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 4183 notices 418,300 OZ 13.010 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS:
ENTRIES: 1
I) INTO ASAHI: 32,016.195 OZ
TOTAL DEPOSIT; 32,016.195 OZ
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
2 ENTRIES
i) Out of Delaware 192.900 ooz
ii) Out of Manfra; 128.604 oz
total withdrawal: 353.655 oz
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI STANDS AT 11 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 96 CONTRACTS.
FRIDAY WE HAD NORMAL STANDING AT 417,200 OZ //TODAY: 418,300 OZ STAND. THUS A GAIN OF 1100 OZ(0.0342 TONNES) OR 11 CONTRACTS UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
OCT LOST 6691 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 21,626. THIS IS THE FRONT MONTH AND WE STILL HAVE TWO MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE ON THE 30TH OF SEPT. EXPECT A LITTLE OVER 30 TONNES TO STAND FOR DELIVERY.
NOVEMBER GAINED 271 CONTRACTS RISING TO 1517
.
We had 11 contracts filed for today representing 1100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 11 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4183) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (11 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 11 x 100 oz per contract) equals 418,300 OZ OR(13.0100 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our two exchange for risk, 2000 contracts or 200,000 oz (6.2208 tonnes)///// thus new standing thus ADVANCES to 19.2308 tonnes
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT. /2026. contract month,we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4183) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(11) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 107 x 100 oz per contract) equals 418,300 OZ OR(13.010 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our two exchange for risk of 6.2208 tonnes/new standing ADVANCES to 19.2308 tonnes
new total of gold standing in SEPT becomes 19.2308 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.: 19.2308 TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT
confirmed volume MONDAY confirmed 164,971/ fair//
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,706,592.093 oz 53.082 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,706,592.093 tonnes oz 53.082 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 23,387,988.611 oz//
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,156,338.144 tonnes (471.425 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 8,231,650.467 oz.
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,449,746 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
418.343 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
SEPT DELIVERY MONTH
SEPT 28
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of Delaware: 1948.964 oz ii) Out of Manfra; 299,539.000 oz total withdrawal 301,487,964 OZ |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 1 i) Into Asahi: 642,773.841 oz total deposit: 642,773.841 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 44 CONTRACT(S) ( 220,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1 Contract (0.005 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 6702 contracts 33.510 MILLIONoz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRIES:
i) Into Asahi: 642,773.841 oz
total deposit: 642,773.841 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
2 entries
i) Out of Delaware: 1948.964 oz
ii) Out of Manfra; 299,539.000 oz
total withdrawal 301,487,964 OZ
adjustments :
0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 96.282 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 332.922 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPT
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 45 FOR A LOSS OF 80 CONTRACTS.
FRIDAY WE HAD 33.380 MILLION OZ STAND: TODAY 33.515 MILLION OZ FOR A GAIN OF 13,500 OZ ( OR A 27 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE EXTRA DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
OCT GAINED 447 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 3,429. THIS BECOMES THE FRONT MONTH AND WE HAVE TWO MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE: EXPECT A STANDING OF AROUND 13 MILLION OZ
NOVEMBER GAINED 42 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 832
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 44 or 0.220 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume FRIDAY;105,362 // huge/
AND NOW SEPT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6702 X5,000 oz = 33.510 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of September and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the Sept 2026 contract month: (6702 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (45) minus number of notices served upon today ( 44 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the SEPT .contract month equating to 33.515 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 96.282 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 132.672/332.922million: 40.00%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SEPT 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 25//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 24//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.84 TONNES
SEPT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
SEPT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
SEPT 21//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 2.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.10 TONNES
SEPT 18//2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 0.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.84 TONNES
SEPT 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $14.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.99 TONNES
SEPT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $53.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.28 TONNES
SEPT 15//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.45 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.420 TONNES
SEPT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $54.50 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.420 TONNES
SEPT 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.277 TONNES
/SEPT 10//2026/WITH GOLD UP $50.60 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.63 TONNES
SEPT 9//2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.63 TONNES
SEPT 8//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.42 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.06 TONNES
SEPT 4//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $63.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.48 TONNES
SEPT 3//2026/WITH GOLD UP $141.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 9.98 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.62 TONNES
SEPT 2//2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
SEPT 1//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $80.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.36 TONNES
AUGUST 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.36 TONNES
AUGUST 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $119.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
AUGUST 27//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 26//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1/138 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 25//2026/WITH GOLD FLAT /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.279 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.489 TONNES
AUGUST 24//2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 12.50 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
AUGUST 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.98 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 20//2026/WITH GOLD UP $29.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 9.41 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 19//2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.42 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.24 TONNES
AUGUST 18//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.13 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1030.66 TONNES
AUGUST 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.53 TONNES
AUGUST 14//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.80 TONNES
AUGUST 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3,139 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025,80TONNES
AUGUST 12//2026/WITH GOLD UP $24.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.562 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.672TONNES
AUGUST 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.52 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.06TONNES
AUGUST 10//2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.82 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017. 540TONNES
/AUGUST 7//2026/WITH GOLD UP $98.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.720TONNES
AUGUST 6//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.851 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.143TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1054.56 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.813 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.533 MILLION OZ
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.716 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.346 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.062 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.10 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.265 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.823 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.636 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.91 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.50 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.50 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.171 MILLION OZ
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.56 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.171 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.632 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.171 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER UP $2.20 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.539 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $2.20 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.293 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.539 MILLION OZ
SEPT2 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
SEPT1 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.43 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.452 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.44 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.543,000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.380 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.33 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.60 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.174 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.43 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.9786 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.097 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.633 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.754 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.48 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $2.92 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.169 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.72 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.259 MILLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.02 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.11 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 720,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.064 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.92 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.75 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 3.434 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 1.085 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.907 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.83 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.00 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.75 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.467 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 494.536 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO//RAVEN
1 B // JAMES RICKARDS ON AI
Rickards: The Real In AI Is Not ‘Super-Intelligence’, It’s China
Saturday, Sep 26, 2026 – 02:00 PM
Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,
It’s past time to look beyond the AI hype. The stock valuations of the leading hyperscalers and frontier AI modeling companies are almost certainly in bubble territory. But the market will sort that out in time.
We all know the names of the AI stocks whether from the hardware, software or compute vectors – Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Google (Alphabet), Amazon, OpenAI, Anthropic, NVIDIA and a few others.
Some of these names have valuable core businesses independent of the AI bubble. Others are pure AI plays. All will be hurt to a greater or lesser extent when the AI bubble bursts.
Still, bubbles can get bigger before they pop and they can take far longer to pop than many market participants realize. It’s not prudent to short these names but one should definitely lighten up on long positions. Moving portfolio allocations to cash and hard assets is a good way to weather the coming storm.
Valuations aside, these companies now pose serious risks to national security, critical infrastructure, the financial system and other institutions. These risks need to be considered on their own because they will affect all of us.
These dangers are not about stock bubbles. They’re about social chaos.
Geopolitical Catalyst
Two threats in particular stand out.
- The first is the use of AI models by the Chinese to attack the United States.
- The second is rogue AI models that work autonomously to attack us on their own.
We’ve seen continuous headlines about the AI race going on between China and the U.S. The elements of the race include massive data centers, high-powered semiconductors and frontier AI models built by U.S. firms such as Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI and by Chinese firms Baidu, Tencent, DeepSeek and Moonshot AI. Other critical inputs in this race include massive amounts of electricity and water required to run the hardware.
The U.S.-China AI race is usually framed in existential terms. Whichever country gets to superintelligence first will control global AI and possibly the world. Even in less grandiose terms, there are critical outcomes in areas of national security, encryption, digital payments, weapons systems and curing disease that depend on the winner of the AI race.
Yet, the competition is far from fair. The U.S. relies on massive investment in fixed assets, superior technology and access to the fastest semiconductors.
China has some of these tools but they rely more on theft of intellectual property from the U.S., using output from U.S. AI apps as curated input on their own apps (to increase processing speeds) and smuggling advanced chips through third countries. China may not be leading the AI race but they are certainly keeping pace.
AI Recon
Now a new threat has emerged. China is using the most advanced AI models including Claude from Anthropic to process information scraped from a wide variety of open sources in the U.S. including military photographs, ship transponder signals, commercial satellite images and other information combined with Chinese satellite images to determine the exact locations and movements of U.S. naval vessels.
That AI-generated information is then passed to Iran, who use it to fire missiles at U.S. Navy vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea.
So far, no U.S. vessels have been hit but that may just be a matter of time. China is using U.S. AI technology to help attack the U.S. Navy at sea. Just days after this revelation, a Chinese spy satellite blew-up in space.
No one has taken responsibility for it. But it’s not a stretch to infer that the U.S. used a space-based weapon to destroy the Chinese satellite that was used to help Iran attack the U.S. Navy.
The AI wars are becoming star wars in real time.
Regulatory Capture
As a separate threat, the media is flooded with stories about an AI Apocalypse in which AI apps from frontier developers like OpenAI and Anthropic achieve superintelligence, join forces and take over the world putting humans in the same position relative to the AI systems as apes are to humans. Other versions of this AI dystopia involve gangs of AI apps working together to shut down the power grid, loot banks and brokers and cause chaos in civilized society.
This wave of panicked propaganda began with an essay by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. The Amodei essay was amplified by Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon who publicly resigned from Anthropic and issued a warning that AI could “kill all humans” within a decade. The Amodei and Coxon warnings were then taken up by the media, politicians and tech experts in what became a cascade of doom and gloom.
But let’s put these warnings in perspective. Whenever you see the same talking points coming from multiple insiders at once, one should be suspicious that a psychological operation (or “psyop”) is being conducted to sway public opinion. In this case, the message is that regulation is needed to protect the world against AI going rogue. This regulation would involve government rules, internal compliance departments, auditor inspections, testing and periodic safety certifications.
How convenient for Anthropic and OpenAI. The kind of regulation they envision is extremely expensive. The giant AI developers can afford it but their newer and smaller competitors cannot. Anthropic and OpenAI are planning $1 trillion plus IPOs later this regulatory moat around their franchises to keep out competition with help from the year. The scaremongering about rogue AI could be nothing more than a tactic to build a government-enforced oligopoly.
My own research indicates that superintelligence can never be achieved because it is impossible to program abductive logic (in contrast to inductive and deductive logic) which can be summarized as gut feel or common sense.
Still, AI is powerful and needs guardrails. But it is not as potentially dangerous as the scaremongers insist. Trump was smart to resist calls for more government regulation. The real enemy in the AI world is not superintelligence – it’s China.
END
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Keynesianism’s sudden death
In his General Theory, Keynes invented macroeconomics and consigned classical economics to dusty bookshelves. It has lasted 90 years and is behind today’s existential crisis.
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“It is markets which are now paying the piper and the adjustment will be sudden and at least as grim as the Soviet collapse.”
We have lived with macroeconomics for so long that we know of no other system. It was designed by Keynes purposefully to give governments justification for economic intervention, whether it be industrial or by monetary manipulation. The reason was a misdiagnosis, the apparent death of classical economics, which was wrongly blamed for the Great Depression. That was actually due to the newly established Fed pumping up a credit bubble that ended spectacularly with the Wall Street crash of 1929.
President Hoover followed by President Roosevelt pursued a policy of intervention that simply prolonged and worsened the slump. It contrasted with previous slumps, notably that of 1920-21, when President Woodrow Wilson refused to intervene, following the policies of previous presidents. He let the economy sort itself out, which it rapidly did as economists of the day understood and predicted.
In the 1930s Keynes thought long and hard about why it was that America and much of the world were driven into depression, dragging the rest of the world down with it. Prices were collapsing, banks were going bust, and unemployment had soared. The problem for employers was that output prices were falling more rapidly than their costs. And they could stay in business only if workers suffered substantial cuts in their wages. Keynes’ socialist leanings rejected this market solution in favour of seeking a better system, one in which governments intervened to prevent such a catastrophe from happening again.
The problem was that he had to demolish the central tenet of capitalism, which is the division of labour — Say’s Law. Jean-Baptiste Say wrote: “It is worthwhile to remark that a product is no sooner created than it, from that instant, affords a market for other products to the full extent of its own value.”
For example, your earnings from maximising your skills and abilities toward making a product or providing a service allow you to buy the other things you do not produce but want. It is self-evidently true for individuals and businesses and was universally accepted as such by economists.
Keynes also accepted the truth in Say’s Law in his essay The Great Slump of 1930 published in the Nation and Atheneum in December 1930 when he struggled to explain the surge in unemployment. He put it down to lack of demand due to a surge in savings, a theme he had developed in his Treatise on Money published earlier that year. But the truth behind Say’s Law justified free markets to the exclusion of meddling by governments. As a socialistic economist born into the British establishment, for Keynes Say’s Law was obstructive and had to be discredited, a problem he spent the following years turning over in his mind. The result is found in the early in his General Theory, published in 1936.
The relevant quote is as follows:
“Thus Say’s Law, that the aggregate demand price of output as a whole is equal to its aggregate supply price for all volumes of output is equivalent to the proposition that there is no obstacle to full employment. If however, this is not the true law relating the aggregate demand and supply functions, there is a vitally important chapter of economic theory that remains to be written [my italics] and without which all discussions concerning the volume of aggregate employment are futile.”
After taking Say’s Law out of context and redefining it so as to allege that it is thereby untrue, Keynes went on to write in his General Theory, his vitally important chapter of economic theory. It was the birth of Keynesianism and macroeconomics, the purpose of which was to clear the way for government intervention in economic affairs.
Socialism and economics
Keynes’s socialism was made clear for all to see in the concluding notes to his General Theory. It is important to understand what the inventor of macroeconomics had in mind; not just benign government intervention but a desire to change society away from free markets and personal choice. He professed to support income differentials but not the extremes of rich and poor. He proposed to do away with personal savings to maximise consumption, and to replace it with “communal savings through the agency of the state to be maintained at a level which will allow the growth of capital up to the point where it ceases to be scarce… I am advocating the euthanasia of the rentier, the functionless investor… ” It is communism, different from the Soviet style, which sought to own the means of production, but communism nonetheless.
The final outcome of Keynes’ socialism is what we face today. It had been forecast in 1920 when Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises published his paper, Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth. It caused intense debate at a time when European intellectuals were falling hook, line, and sinker for Marxism. Von Mises showed that it was impossible for state bureaucrats to anticipate demand and direct production, which was in effect what Keynes proposed.
European intellectuals finally discovered that von Mises had been right all along almost 70 years later. The economic outcome of Soviet socialism was revealed to be a disaster when the Berlin Wall finally fell in November 1989. But they failed to make any connection between Soviet socialism and socialism in the macroeconomics of the West, so ingrained had become false economic arguments in favour of state intervention.
Thirty-seven years after the fall of Soviet communism, we now face the fall of Keynesianism and the entire macroeconomic paradigm. Few of us realise it is in fact socialism, failing for the same reasons which were argued so lucidly by von Mises over a century ago.
Like the USSR in 1989, US and European governments now face an economic crises themselves. It is not a private-sector crisis, but one of state economic management. There’s no superior body to rescue governments from the accumulation of their socialist follies and to stop the politicians from accelerating their self-destruction. But in desperation they are doubling down with their intervention by proposing a new form of credit, central bank digital currencies, which can be targeted at preferred businesses and even withdrawn from those not favoured.
It is entirely consistent with the fallacies behind macroeconomic Keynesianism and would be the ultimate act before its collapse. Preventing this Keynesian lunacy by killing it stillborn is at least one benefit of the death of macroeconomics. The other is the end of a wider interventionism. It is markets that are now paying the piper and the adjustment will be sudden and at least as grim as the Soviet collapse.
END
MATHEW PIEPENBURG
Gold, Banking, & A Historical Disturbance In The Force
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 01:00 PM
Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via Von Greyerz,
With everything from yields, fuel prices and populism rising with open elan as trust in U.S. leadership sinks to an historical nadir, most would agree that we are experiencing a palpable as well as intuitive feeling of what George Lucas might otherwise describe as a “disturbance in the force.”
Markets, led today by a narrow handful of tech juggernauts, continue their nervous melt-up despite openly embarrassing indicators of both over- and malinvestment, as yet another game-changing technological wave of AI dystopia seduces the retail plankton into a textbook setup for an historical meltdown.
In the interim, a small minority of early IPO participants and C-suite insiders with advantageous access to easy capital from the big, credit-extending banks will make fortunes.
Unfortunately, small businesses across the rest of the ignored landscape of the American nightmare just posted a 64% Year-over-Year increase in bankruptcy filings.
From Capitalism to Neo-Feudalism
Such trends, numbers and “forces” are screaming indicators of what I have long described as an America whose superficial claims of “capitalism” are little more than terms of art masking the darker reality of the neo-feudalism now staining the façade of the so-called American dream.
As my son and I enjoyed yesterday’s football game (against Iowa) live from the University of Michigan’s impressive “Big House” stadium, that same university’s infamous consumer sentiment indicator just posted its worst numbers in its five-decade+ history.
Such data effectively confirms that a recession is not only off our bow, but it’s under our keel.
But hey, why worry? We can rename Lake Ontario to “Lake America”, and all will be well again, right?
And let’s not forget that the NASDAǪ 100 has given us five-year returns North of 100%, right?
Even Pam Bondi can remind us to focus on the DOW to keep our faith in American Exceptionalism forever flamed, right?
Hmmm…
The Hidden Crimes
But what few (so very, very few) have realized is that when measured in real money, namely gold, those so-called impressive returns reveal a loss of >20% rather than a gain of 100%.
In other words, if many still think a mythical stock market bubble is going to save us, it’s only because they still think measuring wealth in that melting ice cube, otherwise known as the nominal U.S. dollar, is an actual measure of anything.
For bonds, the story is far darker. Over the last 12 years, USTs, when measured in gold rather than dollars, have punished “safe investors” with a net loss of 90%. How’s that for wealth preservation?
That’s not a typo. It’s a crime.
Based on decades of monetizing trillions in budget deficits with trillions in magical money mouse-clicked at the Eccles Building, the so-called “experts” have been killing the purchasing power of your currency (and hence wealth) in an incremental death by a thousand cuts.
This murder has now become so exponential that even Wall Street has finally given it a name: “The Debasement Trade.“
But there’s more to this Debasement Trade than its name.
The actual, sad and oh-so dangerous reality of this trade is nothing more than an invisible tax on your wealth, which operates in actual (yet hidden) fact as unarmed robbery on a historical scale.
The Hidden Criminals…
If this engineered wealth transfer makes you angry, and it should, the natural reaction to such a crime is to better understand who committed it.
As usual, the best evidence trail for such questions and crimes is simple: Just follow the money…
And this trail, not surprisingly, begins and ends with the centralized power, centralized crimes and centralized (yet hidden) motives of our centralized banks, whose real mandate was never controlling “inflation and employment.”
Their real motive was equally simple. It was simply to control your money.
The Not-So Federal Reserve
When the U.S. Federal Reserve (which is neither federal nor a reserve) was not so immaculately conceived on Jekyll Island and later birthed in 1913 in Washington, DC by a cabal of private bankers, Woodrow Wilson signed his shaking pen to the greatest wealth transfer in the history of our nation.
Rather than allow the natural forces of supply and demand to determine the cost and supply of credit, a handful of private bankers took monopoly control of the same.
Banking Unveiled – Benefiting the Few at the Expense of the Many
The net result has been precisely what our 7th President, Andrew Jackson, warned as far back as 1832, namely, that our financial system would be prostituted for the “benefit of the few at the expense of the many.”
Jackson knew this because long before this otherwise unconstitutional central bank made its ironic yet deliberate way to Constitution Avenue, he understood the history, tricks and secrets of powerful banks and powerful bankers.
He knew, for example, that indebted princes, kings, presidents and even warlords of flag after flag and nation after nation never held the real power.
Real power, even the power behind armies and capitols, is nothing without the money to wield it, and that money begins and ends with banks and bankers.
He also knew that nations beholden to banks can also extract money from the masses, which is why it was no coincidence that in the very same year the Fed came into law in 1913, so too did the first Federal Income Tax legislation…
The Crazy Mechanics of Credit (and Money) Creation
Jackson further understood how banks actually operate, which is something almost no one is meant or taught to understand, and that’s because it’s so crazy that if they did, it would unmask the crime at the base of our so-called free society and free markets.
Banks, for example, are not just helpful little servants of Bedford Falls public trust who carefully manage depositor monies by judiciously re-lending one dollar of deposited cash for one dollar of wisely underwritten loans.
Oh no, not at all.
Instead, banks take a dollar of your depositor wealth and then add massive turns of leverage when they make their interest-carrying (typically risky) and bank-profiting loans of your money.
They then use very clever (and legalized) double-entry accounting tricks to hide the dirty little secret that whenever they are extending credit, they are actually creating money.
Such money creation via credit extension may seem academic, but when done at the scale of trillions and trillions, what was once academic just becomes inflationary, debasing, and- at levels this high – just plain criminal.
Credit Is Not Created Equal
By extending credit, leverage and money creation (i.e., debasement), powerful banks are also extending privilege, and this privilege is not shared equally.
Big banks, you know – the kind that are too big to fail – hold balance sheets in the trillions (especially when you tack on their notional derivatives exposure), which means they need to make big rather than small loans to move their money and extend their risk exposures.
Needless to say, small businesses and small citizens are not at the top of the priority list for these mega banks.
Instead, the big boys like to make deals with other big boys, which explains why access to capital is not created equal in the so-called land of the free.
Instead, the bigger loans are made to VC funds, mega tech monopolies and pooled superstars in the private equity and private credit corners, temporarily profiting from “sea to shining sea” from Palo Alto to New York City, but largely bypassing the little guys in the flyover states.
The Big Boys Are Not the Smart Boys
But just because these loans and capital infusions are unfairly distributed to the big boys, this by no means implies that they are made to the smartest boys.
Bailing Out the Bad Boys
But power protects power, and the very credit (i.e., banking) system which triggers the next mega crisis in a nation already $40T in public debt will be once again rescued (“bailed out”) by the very bankers and Treasury Secretaries (i.e., former bankers) who systematically created the crisis.
Remember TARP? Remember the BTFP?
In fact, the very same year our TBTF banks broke the global economy in 2008, over 500 bankers received bonuses in excess of $1M each…
It is fascinating how exempt such a system can be from accountability when the criminals are also the judges…
When the Cure and the Sickness Are One & the Same
Of course, the amount of “stimulus,” “accommodation”, and “synthetic liquidity” required to “save” the next banking (and hence credit) crisis will be historically expensive and hence historically ruinous to paper currencies in general and the USD in particular.
Yes, there is theoretically no crisis a money printer can’t solve, and no market dip or even market implosion that a money printer can’t remodel into a V-shaped “recovery.”
But such “solutions” or “recoveries” are as sickening as the very crises they pretend to “cure,” as they can only be achieved by even greater debasement (and money creation) than the debasement and money creation crisis by which the banking system is inherently defined.
In short, the sickness and the cure are one and the same, and the patient zero is always (and I mean always) a bank.
Gold: The Only Honest Solution
The more honest solution, of course, is as obvious as it is ignored by the vast majority of investors, bankers and even innocents of the ignored Main Streets.
That solution is now, and has always been, gold.
In crisis after crisis, bank disaster after bank disaster, and currency failure after currency failure, those families, institutions and sophisticated investors who held gold rather than paper money in a crisis where always the same ones who prevailed rather than failed when their currencies were inflated away/debased into nothing.
But just because your banking system has failed to protect your deposits or dollars in gold, this doesn’t mean you can’t be smarter than your “experts.”
Once you understand their tricks, powers and historical failures – it’s almost too easy. Gold is no longer a debate; it’s the solution.
And while goldbugs wait, there is now an option to collect as much as 4% yield on physical, paid out as additional ounces of physical gold, something our friends at Monetary Metals have been perfecting for years.
END
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/291
END
5. COMMODITY REPORT: SILVER
Silver Is Backed Up For Months. Here’s Why
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 04:15 AM
Silver sold off during Josh Phair’s September 23 interview, but the Scottsdale Mint CEO said the physical market’s immediate constraint was at the refinery.
“Silver is backed up at the refineries… in many cases about 3-4 months,” depending on the material, while finished refined metal remained amply available in the United States.
In his Mining.com Top of Mine interview, Phair said banks have been redirecting mined material toward refineries in countries friendly to the United States.
Those plants have been backed up for roughly a year. He was describing a delay in processing incoming material, alongside available stocks of finished metal.
Why silver moves between markets
Phair traced last year’s large inflow of silver into the United States to tariff concerns. The inflow left the U.S. relatively well supplied compared with some overseas markets.
“Metal will go where it’s treated best.”
Banks and trading houses could then ship metal to a market offering a higher exchange-for-physical premium.
Even an extra 10 or 20 cents an ounce can justify the move when the trade is large enough.
He said that movement has continued, though it appears to have slowed as the U.S. market has become more balanced.
He did not give a current destination or tonnage for silver leaving the country.
Are governments buying silver?
Asked directly for evidence that governments are buying physical silver for reserves, Phair pointed to the former U.S. strategic silver stockpile, the government’s designation of silver as a critical mineral, U.S. reliance on imports, and a stockpile program he called Project Vault.
He also argued that governments can work through banks to obtain materials without announcing every transaction.
Phair believes official silver buying may be occurring. He did not identify a current government silver purchase or give a reserve figure in the interview.
His stockpiling argument is an inference from policy and past practice.
The next constraint
Refining is the bottleneck Phair sees now.
Over a longer horizon, he expects mine supply to become harder to expand.
He cited years of limited investment in exploration and development, long permitting timelines, and the risks.
Gold math
Finally, Phair explains the ‘gold math’: take US foreign debt against stated gold holdings, solve for the gold price that balances them, and you get the ‘Fair Sinclair’ number.
“The Fair Sinclair ratio… is 35,000 on gold. So external debt, the status of gold holdings, and 35,000 is the balancing factor.”
Phair treats it as a crisis-era valuation – not a next-month price target – adding that if he’s only partly right, holders still come out fine.
END
COMMODITY COPPER
“De-Globalization Endgame”: Deutsche Bank Warns Historic Copper Squeeze Could Ignite 50% Rally
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 02:25 PM
London copper prices are near record highs at the start of the week, reinforcing the supercycle commodity bull-cycle thesis former Goldman Sachs commodities chief Jeff Currie outlined in August: “get long and buckle up.” The convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement and policy intervention is creating conditions for a sustained repricing of scarce resources.
From refined petroleum products and rare earths to industrial metals and certain agricultural commodities, tightening physical markets underpin our “own the bottlenecks” theme.
Deutsche Bank’s head of metals research, Daniel Ghali, added urgency to that theme on Monday morning, warning that available copper inventories globally have fallen to “unprecedented lows.” As US and Chinese stockpiling squeezes supplies available elsewhere, Ghali sees copper rallying roughly 50% to $22,050 a ton by the second quarter of 2027.
Ghali estimates China’s strategic reserves hold about 2.05 million tons, equivalent to 43% of global above-ground inventories. Meanwhile, US tariff-driven stockpiling demand could leave 1.3 million tons tied up at warehouses by year-end. Together, the bank estimates US and Chinese stockpiling will encumber 71% of global inventories.
“The combination of de-globalization and decades of underinvestment in supply has created vulnerabilities such that, by year-end, stockpiling in the USA and China will have encumbered 71% of global inventories,” he warned.
At the current stockpiling pace, Ghali forecasts that freely available inventories would approach zero by the end of 2028, adding that this would be the exact breaking point the market must prevent through demand destruction, or higher prices.
Ghali called this the “most acute copper scarcity on record” and a “de-globalization endgame.” The industrial metal’s story is quickly shifting from an AI data center boom to a liquidity crisis, as free-floating copper inventories decline to unprecedented levels.
More bad news:
The risk now is a bidding war for the remaining accessible metal that ends only when demand destruction arrives. Access to metal is critical as resource nationalism engulfs the world, with China restricting rare earths and other critical metals. These materials are essential to defense and the looming rearmament theme in the West.
More evidence that readers may want to “own the bottlenecks” as critical material supplies tighten. This theme should gain traction across Wall Street.
Last week, Stifel metals analysts pointed out one mind-boggling chart:
Time to own the bottlenecks.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 64.75 PTS OR 1.67%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 137.42 PTS OR 0.54%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 456.20 PTS OR 0.65%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.16%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7105
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7157 Oil UP TO 96.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 108.65 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7105 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7157 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.7105
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.7157
1A.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 137.42 PTS OR 0.54%
1 B. SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 64.75 OR 1.67%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 456.70 PTS OR 0.69%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 96.17
BRENT; 108.65
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP 18 BASIS PTS TO 100.88// EURO FALLS TO 1.1370 DOWN 15 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +3.087 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 157.07… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.179 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.7105) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7157
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.6361/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 4.5944/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 4.132%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 4.4656%
3j Gold at $4158.00 /Silver at: 61.38 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 54/ 100 roubles/84.69
3m oil (WTI) into the 96 dollar handle for WTI and 108 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.07 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 3.087% UP 1 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 4.179 UP 2 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8314 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9450
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.237 UP 5 BASIS PTS…NOW BELOW 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.534 UP 4 BASIS PTS/REFUSES TO GO DOWN WITH BESSENT’S QE TWIST
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.918 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.98 UP 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.4130 UP 6 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.900 UP 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.983 UP 6 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.6372 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Slide As Oil Jumps, Bond Selloff Resumes After Trump Spurns Iran Offer
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 08:33 AM
US futures are lower with Tech underperforming, alongside a drop in treasuries, as fading hopes for an imminent breakthrough in the Iran war sent oil prices higher and reignited worries that inflation is heating up. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures are down around 0.5% with Nasdaq futures sliding by 0.8% as semis and memory stocks underpeform the group. Defensives are leading cyclicals with credit cards, defense, energy, insurance, and restaurants acting as pockets of strength. Oil is sharply higher after Iran stuck to its seven-day proposal for reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, saying it won’t soften its conditions, while Donald Trump sent mixed signals about his willingness to reach a deal. He told Axios that Tehran has overplayed its hand but added that he expects negotiations to resume this week. Adding to tensions, UK police are investigating a potential terror plot after five men were arrested near an air base used in US strikes against Iran. The jump in oil has puled bond yields 4-7 bps higher as the curve flattens, the 10Y trading at 5.21% after hitting a new multi-decade high of 5.23% earlier. The DXY dollar index is higher despite weakness in USD/JPY and GBP/USD. Commodities are mixed with energy leading, metals under pressure dragged by precious which appears to be driven by temporary higher margin requirements in China for Golden Week; ags are lower. More than a dozen Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week beginning Monday, and heavy US economic slate includes September employment report Friday. Today’s US economic data slate includes only September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30 a.m. Fed speakers include Bowman (8:15 a.m.), Cook (1:25 p.m.) and Barkin (1:30 p.m.).
In premarket, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia (NVDA) climbs 0.9% after its board authorized an additional $150 billion under the company’s existing share repurchase program, increasing the total remaining amount authorized to $235 billion (Meta Platforms (META) -2.5%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -1%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.5%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.5%, Apple (AAPL) -0.3%)
- Precious metals miners are broadly lower, following a drop in gold and silver prices as persistent tensions in the Middle East push up government bond yields and dent the appeal of non-yielding metals.
- Shares of oil majors rise.
- Kodiak Sciences (KOD) jumps 66% after saying the company has met key endpoints for both Zenkuda and tabirafusp-ted in the Phase 3 study in patients with wet age-related macular degeneration.
- NetEase ADRs (NTES) rise 4% after Morgan Stanley names it top pick among peers, expecting the firm’s new Ananta game to become a blockbuster launch and a core growth driver next year.
- SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) drop 3% as reports of subsidiary Solidigm’s IPO plans trigger concerns over the rationale behind the move.
- Snowflake (SNOW), a maker of software that helps organize and analyze corporate data in the cloud, falls 4% as the company intends to offer $3.5 billion of convertible senior notes.
- Teleflex (TFX) inches 1.4% higher after BofA Global Research upgraded the medical device supplier to buy, citing upside to earnings.
In other corporate news, Boeing identified an issue with the 737 Max jet’s navigation system that could increase pilot workload during landing and may delay the arrival of its latest narrowbody models. ExxonMobil agreed to pump oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan’s shale fields as the Texas energy giant takes its fracking expertise overseas. McDonald’s faces a key challenge in winning back the cost-conscious diners who believe its menu has become too expensive.
Investors are navigating geopolitical risks and growing price pressures even as corporate profitability remains robust and major economies show resilience. For now, oil is keeping bond yields near multi-year highs, with the pressure from rates feeding through to other asset classes. Stock futures are lower after a weekend of largely negative Middle East headlines revived inflation worries. In big AI news this morning, Nvidia introduced a new double-layered AI security system designed to stop AI agents from going awry; this was followed by an announcement of a $150 billion stock buybacks, the biggest in history; the news sent the stock in the green after sliding earlier. Oil is rising again after Iran said it won’t soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump sent mixed messages about reaching a deal.
“A lot is moving against equities at the moment: oil is on the rise and bond yields are going through the roof,” said Laurent Lamagnere at AlphaValue. “It’s quite hard for me to be optimistic.”
The recent spike in yields means that month-end reallocations by balanced US equity-bond funds could weigh on stocks in the near term, according to Christopher Dembik, senior investment adviser at Pictet Asset Management.
“Around $25 billion to $30 billion worth of equities are expected to be sold, with the proceeds reinvested in bonds,” Dembik said. “This could put some downward pressure on US large caps over the next few trading sessions.”
Nvidia’s new security tools are designed to control what AI agents can access in real time and shut them down when they break the rules. That may calm nerves over the technology following following fresh disclosures about breaches. OpenAI said another agentic AI system that was being trained in what was supposed to be a secured environment was able to gain access to the web to reach a third-party chatbot.
Meanwhile, with so much going on – from AI euphoria and fear to geopolitical drama – Bloomberg notes that traders are increasingly looking at dispersion trade opportunities for winners and losers. The trend is likely to continue, with JPMorgan derivatives strategists highlighting that midterms could catalyze single stock volatility. They recommend buying VIX October call spreads, noting that the VIX curve is well below prior midterm setups.
Goldman strategists also see potential for more volatility ahead, enabled by narrow market breadth. A measure of S&P 500 breadth has reached the lowest level since the dot-com bubble, they say, with the strength of the AI trade masking broader index weakness.
There’s not much on the macro calendar today, but the rest of the week will be busy, with core PCE on Wednesday, ISM’s manufacturing survey on Thursday and payrolls due Friday. Bessent said on Fox News at the weekend that Fed policymakers should keep an “open mind” on interest rates.
Elsewhere in tech, SK Hynix is considering a potential US listing of its Solidigm flash data storage subsidy. The Chinese government signaled it may allow companies such as Alibaba and ByteDance to buy Nvidia’s new RTX Pro 5500 chips, The Information reported. And Anthropic CEO was said to meet Trump on Sunday evening, bringing together two men at opposite ends of the AI safety debate.
The growing prospect of rate hikes saw gold extend its losses for September to more than 6%. Rising yields have dimmed the allure of the precious metal, which pays no interest. Investors see about a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month, up from about 65% on Friday.
In trade news, the US and China detailed a plan to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of imports from each country, following last week’s summit. Trump said he is looking “very seriously” at implementing a US ban on diesel exports to combat high prices.
Data due later this week are likely to give investors more reason to worry that price pressures are building. A report on Wednesday is forecast to show a 0.5% increase in August inflation-adjusted personal spending, which would be the biggest advance in just over a year. The release will also include the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Both the personal consumption expenditures price index and the core measure are projected to quicken in August from a month earlier. Friday’s payrolls data will probably show that hiring remained solid.
European stocks are resilient in the face of higher energy prices with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2%. In the UK, shares in homebuilders surged after the government announced a loan program to help first-time buyers. Taylor Wimpey Plc rose 12%, while Persimmon Plc rallied 15% and Barratt Redrow Plc advanced 12%. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
- Shares in UK homebuilders surge after the government announces a loan program to help first-time buyers purchase new-build homes. Taylor Wimpey rises as much as 23%, the steepest gain since May 2009
- Suedzucker shares rally as much as 7.9%, the most in six months, after the agri-food business delivered results ahead of expectations and raised its revenue and earnings guidance for the year
- Dormakaba rises as much as 6.7%, the biggest jump since April 2025, after the security system maker was upgraded at Jefferies. Analysts say the de-rating has gone too far and that the upcoming capital markets day could provide a catalyst
- Bridgepoint Group shares rise as much as 5.4% after Citi increased its price target on the private equity firm by a fifth, having adjusted its models to reflect the acquisition of US real estate investment platform Kayne
- Fagron climbs as much as 7.6%, the most since mid-February, as ING Bank lifts its price target on the pharmaceutical company and adds to its Benelux Favourites list
- Keller Group rises as much as 5.3% as RBC says the ground engineering specialist’s announcement of a $650m contract variation order on the I-40 highway reconstruction project will help to de-risk growth in the US
- Maire rises as much as 4.5%, the most in a month, as Citi initiates on the Italian engineering group with a buy rating, saying it’s attractively levered to rising global gas investment
- Irish Residential Properties REIT jumps by 24%, propelling shares to their highest level since 2022, after the firm received takeover offers from Baring International Investment. Shares are still trading below the offer price
- European gambling companies’ shares slide after Brazil issued a provisional measure on Friday banning all forms of online gambling. Entain said it expects underlying Ebitda to hit the lower-end of its guided range following the ban
- European miners dropped as copper and other base metals retreated after data showed slower growth in industrial profits in China
- Danieli shares fall as much as 13%, the most since April 4, after the steel-making-equipment company reported full-year results and issued guidance that Banca Akros described as more prudent than expected
Asian stocks fell, with the tech sector leading the losses, as an increase in oil prices spurred concern over inflation and sent bond yields higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5% following a 1.2% gain last week. Chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix were the biggest drags, losing over 4% each, as trading in Korean markets resumed after holidays. For SK Hynix, media reports of a potential listing of its US subsidiary added to worries over the firm’s complex ownership structure. The Kospi lost about 2%. Tech stocks also slumped in China, dragging the CSI 300 Index to a one-year low. Shares of semiconductor firms slid following a report that the nation may allow local firms such as Alibaba to buy Nvidia’s new chips. Meanwhile, shares of optical-component makers declined after a proposed US bill targeted Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink.
“Asian markets start on the back foot given the gap higher in global oil prices to kick off the week,” said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com. “Focus will turn to US macroeconomic fundamentals and Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations as the week unfolds.”
In FX, USD/JPY was knocked lower after a warning from Japan’s top currency official. It’s been an ugly session for precious metals with spot gold and silver under relentless pressure, lower by 3.3% and 5% respectively.
In rates, US bonds are getting sold across the curve. The 10-year yield is up 7bps and at its highest level since 2007. UK and German equivalents are up 5bps. Treasury futures begin the US day near session lows, tracking losses for European bonds amid a sharp rise in oil prices after US President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US yields are cheaper by 4bp to 8bp across the curve with belly-led losses flattening 5s30s spread by 3bp; 10-year is higher by around 7bp at 5.23% with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by around 2bp. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of names so far. For this week dealers anticipate around $50 billion, including a Paramount debt package that may involve $32 billion of bonds. Treasury auctions resume next week with 3-year new issue and 10- and 30-year reopenings. More than a dozen Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week beginning Monday, and heavy US economic slate includes September employment report Friday.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures rose as much as 4.5% amid standoff between Iran and US on ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is up over 3% with Iran refusing to soften its conditions on Hormuz after the US rejected its latest reopening proposal. Bitcoin sheds 2.4%.
US economic data slate includes only September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30 a.m. Also ahead this week are consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, 2Q GDP revision, personal income and spending (with PCE price indexes) and ISM manufacturing. Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (8:15 a.m.), Cook (1:25 p.m.) and Barkin (1:30 p.m.).
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country is prepared to resume fighting with the United States but has not yet abandoned diplomacy after President Donald Trump publicly rejected a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. NBC
- Mediators are expected to hold separate talks with US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi and Qatari mediators remaining in the US: RTRS
- Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Tehran’s truce proposal, in a race to stop the conflict from escalating back into all-out war. WSJ
- Trump announced that he approved new fuel economy standards that terminate former President Biden’s EV mandate, while he said the new standards will take the waste out of building cars in the US, which means lower prices, and noted that more than USD 100bln is being invested in American autos under his administration: RTRS
- The US and China plan to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of imports from each other. Trump said he made “tremendous progress” with Xi Jinping at last week’s summit. BBG
- China’s industrial enterprises saw their earnings grow at the weakest since they fell last November, highlighting the limits of a recovery disproportionately driven by elevated oil costs and sectors linked to artificial intelligence. BBG
- Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said on Monday markets should take at face value the “very clear” message Tokyo and Washington delivered last week on the yen, signalling his resolve to act against excessive falls in the currency. RTRS
- European natural gas moved higher as traders weighed the extension of a supply force majeure from Qatar against mixed signals on talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. BBG
- Nvidia introduced a new double-layered AI security system that it says would’ve prevented the recent high-profile breach of Hugging Face by OpenAI’s AI models. BBG
- The turbulence that has rocked private credit funds for the past year showed signs of easing in September, with the flood of redemption requests from retail investors slowing and performance improving. FT
- The Fed should keep an “open mind” on rates, Scott Bessent told Fox, arguing AI-driven productivity gains and deregulation will help contain inflation. He spoke ahead of a week of key data including consumer spending and nonfarm payrolls. Furthermore, he said that core inflation has been very stable and fell in recent months. BBG
- Trump said had an incredible meeting with Chinese President Xi, also noted that he’s having dinner tonight with Anthropic’s head at 10pm and will be meeting with Anthropic on Tuesday, adds Anthropic’s Dario is very highly respected.
- US President Trump said he will talk about AI with Anthropic’s CEO Amodei, who was having dinner at the White House on Sunday, while Trump said he would tell Amodei, “let’s go, let’s win.”
Iran War
- US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately because it is losing so badly.
- US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal, while he stated the conditions Iran wants are something the US may have agreed to around a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand, according to Axios.
- US President Trump said that as soon as the Iran war is over, which is soon, oil will drop, while he stated that they took out a record oil amount from Hormuz on Saturday night. Trump also stated that they will win against Iran in military and economic warfare, while he didn’t want to say regarding striking Iran before the Midterms and noted that Iran inflation was at 318%.
- US President Trump told Chinese President Xi during the summit to stop supporting Iran, according to Axios on Friday, citing US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue.
- Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they have seen the initial response from US President Trump to the 7-day ceasefire proposal, but are waiting to receive the official response via mediators, while he added that only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. Araghchi also stated that Iran’s conditions are clear and that any move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war and that they came to forge peace, while he added that Iran remains steadfast in the face of any aggression even if it comes to an apocalyptic war, but is at the same time, ready for real diplomacy.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the week mixed as higher oil prices spurred hawkish rate bets and following mixed geopolitical headlines over the weekend, in which US President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal for a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but expects talks to resume this week. ASX 200 traded higher with gains led by strength in the top-weighted financial sector, but with the upside capped heading into a widely anticipated rate hike by the RBA tomorrow. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index fading an initial rally amid higher yields and as participants also digested firmer-than-expected Services PPI data, while former BoJ official Momma touted the possibility of the central bank hiking rates again in October. KOSPI suffered on return from a 4-day closure with notable selling in the local tech behemoths. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark edged higher, while the mainland was heavily pressured at the start of a holiday-shortened trading week following a slowdown in Industrial Profits, while the PBoC’s liquidity efforts and a US-China agreement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff reduction framework failed to spur risk appetite.
Top Asian News
- Australian Treasurer Chalmers confirmed Australia’s 2025-2026 budget deficit was AUD 6bln less than forecast.
- Chinese Industrial Profits YY (Aug) 4.2% (prev. 11.2%).
- Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) (Aug YY) 15.7% (Prev. 17.6%).
- Japanese Services PPI YY (Aug) 3.7% vs Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%).
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) were broadly firmer this morning, but have come off best levels as energy benchmarks continue to rise and as yields remain elevated. European sectors hold a positive bias. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, joined closely by Retail and Consumer Products. The downside resides Basic Resources, with the sector dented by continued pressure in the metals space amidst elevated yields and geopolitical uncertainty. Also towards the bottom is Tech, following the negative bias set out by SK Hynix (-5%) and Samsung (-5.4%) overnight. For the former, it was recently confirmed that SK Hynix’s unit Solidigm is aiming for a US IPO, which would see SK Hynix essentially sharing Solidigm’s future earnings.
Top European News
- UK PM Burnham hinted regarding new taxes to pay for social care reform and confirmed he wants care for the elderly and infirm to operate on NHS principles, while he didn’t deny that this would be paid for with tax increases.
- UK PM Burnham insisted he can deliver a real change for people in the country despite the nation facing severe economic headwinds, while he acknowledged they are facing a challenging set of circumstances at the budget. It was also reported that Burnham announced a new help-to-buy scheme to get first-time buyers on the housing ladder.
- UK PM Burnham suggested he could block plans for a third runway at Heathrow Airport.
- British police arrested several suspects over a ‘major incident’ near an airbase used by the US, while US President Trump said the men arrested at the UK airbase were looking to do ‘big damage’.
- France is mulling a change to the way payroll tax deductions are calculated in its 2027 budget bill, which would effectively be a payroll tax increase for firms and could bring in an additional EUR 3bln-3.5bln.
- Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia premier Wuest, who is a key figure in Chancellor Merz’s CDU, criticised the government regarding the pace of economic reforms and said delays in enacting legislation contributed to the party’s disastrous performance in regional elections this month.
- ECB’s Sleijpen said the Netherlands needs to keep government spending in check and that state debt will increase if they do nothing, while he warned it would be highly irresponsible to borrow more, which is also not good for inflation.
- Swedish Social Democrat leader Andersson said she will tell the parliament speaker she cannot form a government under the current circumstances.
- EU leaders are deadlocked over the next long term budget, Politico reported citing a German diplomatic cable; ahead of an October 15th meeting, a development that raises the prospect of there being no-deal by end-2026.
FX
- DXY is little changed overall, with the Buck caught between higher oil prices, yields and Fed tightening bets on one side, and notable JPY strength on the other (see below for more details). Friday’s hawkish Fed rhetoric remains on traders’ minds, with Hammack saying policy needs to be restrictive to bring inflation lower and that she does not currently see policy as restraining the economy. DXY trades around the 101 mark in a current 100.98-101.20 range (vs 100.87-101.31 range on Friday). Note, month- and quarter-end flows are also coming into traders’ views, with rebalancing likely to become more influential as month-end approaches.
- EUR/USD is modestly softer with little in the way of fresh bloc-specific drivers, leaving the pair largely at the whim of broader USD action but perhaps with some more influence from the GBP today. EUR/USD trades within a 1.1371-1.1391 range, with ECB’s Lagarde due for a text release at 15:00 BST.
- GBP is modestly firmer against the USD despite some caution around the UK fiscal outlook. PM Burnham hinted at new taxes to fund social care reform and acknowledged challenging circumstances heading into the Budget, while also announcing a new help-to-buy scheme. The spending narrative is being treated cautiously, although the potential growth impulse is being taken at face value for now, with Chancellor Healey still to come at 12:00BST, speaking at the Labour conference. As such, the stable open for Gilts seemingly provided traders with some relief for now. Before that, on the BoE front, Ramsden is due for a text release on QT at 11:00BST. GBP/USD trades towards the top of a 1.3218-1.3273 range.
- JPY is the clear G10 outperformer, extending gains after Japan’s top FX official Mimura said authorities are not satisfied or reassured by recent Yen price action and are watching whether markets take their “clear message” at face value. Mimura also mentioned the BoJ’s shift towards rate hikes and the subsequent result of the narrowing of the US-Japan yield gap. USD/JPY fell from around 157.55 to 157.25 on the remarks, and continued to fall to a trough of 156.50.
- Japanese FX Official Mimura said they are closely watching to see if markets take the clear message they are giving at face value. Not satisfied with or reassured by recent JPY action. BoJ’s clear shift onto a rate-hiking path is gradually narrowing the Japan-US yield gap. A clear message was sent to the US on rates.
Central Banks
- BoJ Minutes from July meeting stated members agreed financial conditions are accommodative and many members noted firms are steadily passing on rising raw material costs, keeping inflation elevated.
- BoE’s Dhingra said that she is worried that high rates would hit investment and lower supply.
- PBoC to inject CNY 661bln via overnight reverse repos.
- PBoC injected CNY 139bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.40% and CNY 300bln via 14-day reverse repos with rate at 1.25%.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7399 vs Exp. 6.7085 (prev. 6.7489).
- BoK said to closely monitor financial and forex markets.
Fixed Income
- A bearish start to the day, though only modestly so despite energy upside of in excess of USD 2.00/bbl. USTs hit a 104-15+ low in the European morning.
- The main updates being the US President rejecting the Iranian proposal, but despite that he expects talks with Iran to recommence this week. From Iran, the delegation in the US reportedly has no plans to speak with the US on such matters, though Iranian President Pezeshkian has said they remain ready for dialogue.
- The action has lifted yields across the globe and the curve, with the US curve modestly flatter given the near-term implications for energy, inflation and by extension the Fed from the lack of concrete progress on Hormuz. The US 10yr yield remains at a c. 5.23% recent peak, with both the short- and long-end of the curve also at/near multi-year highs.
- Gilts opened with modest pressure given the above, though the UK focus point has been the weekend’s briefings from UK PM Burnham and, to a lesser extent, Chancellor Healey. The Chancellor added little, but we await more detail from his 12:00BST speech today. From Burnham, he outlined reform to the housing market, hinted at a tax increase to fund his social care ambitions and seemingly didn’t rule out an early election; though, on the latter, the inference is more from the tone of the Kuenssberg interview than anything he explicitly said.
- Net, the above has been taken in relative stride by the market, with the pressure seen in fitting with EGBs and no further bearish impulse coming from the PM’s comments.
- Bunds in-fitting, at a 119.22 low with downside of 10 ticks at most. Reacting to the upside seen in global energy benchmarks and further gains for TTF on the Middle East uncertainty. Action that continues to keep the ECB’s October meeting live, and increases the odds of a back-to-back hike after September’s move.
- Japan Finance Ministry proposes the cut to mid-term JGB liquidity auctions, given improved JGB market functions; proposes reducing 5-11 year liquidity enhancement bond supply.
- Australia sold AUD 800mln 3.75% April 2037 bonds b/c 4.88, avg. yield 5.429%.
Commodities
- WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are firmer after gapping higher at the open as US-Iran tensions somewhat picked up over the weekend (see below for details), with no notable de-escalation progress to report thus far following the UNGA. WTI Nov trades within a USD 92.68-95.75/bbl range, while Brent Dec trades within a USD 97.62-100.94/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer as renewed Middle East tensions add to European supply concerns, with the EU warning member states of a potential energy price crisis and urging them to continue filling storage while considering measures to curb demand. TTF trades towards the top end of a EUR 72.30-74.33/MWh range.
- Precious metals are sharply lower this morning as the renewed rise in oil prices adds to inflation concerns, pushing yields higher and reinforcing expectations for further Fed tightening. Spot gold has fallen through USD 4,200/oz and trades near the bottom of a USD 4,140-4,286/oz range. Spot silver underperforms to a greater extent, falling almost 5% at the time of writing to around USD 61.00/oz within a USD 60.95-64.26/oz range.
- Base metals are also softer amid the higher yield environment and broader selling across metals, while weaker Chinese data adds another headwind ahead of a holiday-shortened weekend for China.. Chinese Industrial Profits growth slowed to 4.2% Y/Y in August from 11.2%, with YTD growth easing to 15.7% from 17.6%. 3M LME copper resides at the bottom of a 14,376.58-14,612.00/t range.
- Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran said any reopening remains contingent on its conditions being met and its UN delegation reportedly has no plans for talks with the US. Trump nonetheless expects negotiations to resume this week, with the Iranian President this morning also supporting talks. Further, there was renewed Houthi activity against Saudi Arabia, with explosions reported in Riyadh and disruption at King Khalid International Airport. Traders are also mindful on US diesel policy after Trump said he is “thinking very seriously” about an export ban, despite earlier White House assurances that one would not be implemented.
- Qatar has reportedly extended its force majeure on LNG shipments to Asia and Europe by another month, Bloomberg reported.
- India Trade Minister Goyal said India is working with the UAE to expand strategic petroleum reserves.
- Libya’s NOC Chairman said the Sharara oil field is producing more than 300k BPD.
- Qatar to extend force majeure on LNG deliveries to Pakistan through November.
Trade/Tariffs
- China Commerce Ministry said we look forward to expanding China-US collaboration in the coal sector and that the sides agreed to form an agricultural working group, have also agreed to set up communication channel for AI incidents. China will review and approve applications from financial service institutions worldwide, including those with US capital, to operate and open branches. China expects US to offer fair, transparent, and stable policy environment for Chinese financial institutions. Both sides agree to keep talks on boosting China-US flights and related issues. Trade truce with US will remain in place through January 2027.
- White House said US and China confirmed agreement regarding a USD 30bln vs USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut. said:. Will consider certain US products for import into China and China is to import US coal in 2027-2028. China and US launch AI dialogue under the trade mechanism.
- US trade sources tell FBN there will be historic purchases announced in agreement with China. Both sides will also exempt more agriculture products, medical supplies, and lo-tech electronics from additional tariffs.
Geopolitics: Russia
- EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Kallas said that intelligence reported indicate that Russia is planning further sabotage; called for focus on addressing gaps in Europe’s defence capabilities. EU’s Naval Aspides Mission requires more naval assets to be operational, adding that the need is bigger than it has ever been.
- EU countries consider NATO-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks which have included drone attacks, bombs and arson, according to FT.
- US President Trump said he told Ukrainian President Zelensky to take it easy on refineries.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Sunday morning that Russian strikes overnight killed four in Ukraine and damaged a data centre in Kyiv.
- EU countries consider NATO-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks which have included drone attacks, bombs and arson, according to FT.
Geopolitics: Iran
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said regional states can safeguard their own security, and he denied Iran’s direct involvement in Yemen, describing the situation as unrelated to Iran, but stated that Iran is ready to help resolve the conflict and urged Houthis and Saudi Arabia to enter talks instead of escalating.
- IRGC spokesman said not only is the Strait of Hormuz not open, but it is a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy against US submersibles.
- Iran army spokesman said Iran’s armed forces are prepared for any renewed US attacks after US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran.
- Local sources reported that a sea cruiser fired at a violating vessel in an unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
- Saudi authorities suspended in-person classes in Riyadh for a week on Sunday, following reports the day before that Saudi air defences said they intercepted Houthi drones headed toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran remains ready for dialogue despite being attacked during previous talks, but pressure and attacks will not force Iran to surrender.
- Source said Iran is prepared to compromise on its nuclear programme but wants guarantees Israel will not attack again after a US deal, N12 reported.
- What Western media outlets are promoting regarding the negotiations is false news, reported Al Mayadeen citing high-ranking Iranian security source. The reason for the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the Americans’ failure to fulfill their commitments. Iran has informed the American side of its seven conditions, and the ball is now in the American court. The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened through tweets or misleading news published by media outlets close to the White House.
- Iran Foreign Minister said we have not closed the door to diplomacy despite American violations; choice now rests with US. If the conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz and maritime traffic can be reopened within 7 days. We will open the Strait of Hormuz on the sixth day of implementing the plan. We will return to negotiations with America on the seventh day of implementing the plan. The 7-day deadline begins as soon as the United States accepts the plan we proposed. Tehran will not yield to pressure or relinquish its sovereign rights. Plan’s requirements are similar to those in the MoU with the US.
- Iran Foreign Minister said we are committed to protecting freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and its security cannot be restored through military blockade and escalation. We conveyed a message to America via Qatar, consisting of a 7-day plan. Our position is clear regarding the ongoing developments, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
- IRGC Spokesperson said we will not stop punishing the US until Iran’s seven conditions are met; our missiles are capable of destroying America’s multi-layered defenses, Fars reported.
- Iranian Real Admiral Siyari said they are fully in control of the Strait of Hormuz, Defa reported; “we act assertively in the north of the Sea of Oman and east of the Strait of Hormuz and will not allow anyone to attempt passage”.
- Eight US Marines were injured two weeks ago when an Iranian cruise missile attacked the ship they were operating on in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by NBC News.
Geopolitics: Other
- Yemeni sources say Armed Forces aircraft carried out several airstrikes on Houthi positions in Al-Rabeei, west of Taiz, Al Arabiya reported.
- Saudi artillery and missile attacks on the border county of Saada in Yemen, according to SNN.
- Saudi’s Foreign Minister arrives in Washington to meet with US Secretary of State Rubio.
- Iraqi sources report suspension of flights at Erbil Airport in Iraq following reported of attack on separatist party headquarters, according to SNN.
- US President Trump administration officials said US has no plans to sell weapons to China after US ambassador to Beijing, Perdue, told an interviewer that President Trump at one point offered to sell US arms to Chinese President Xi, according to WSJ.
- Explosions reportedly heard in Erbil, northern Iraq, according to SNN.
- Several commercial aircraft were not being allowed to land at King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia, following reported of explosions heard in Saudi Arabia.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu visited Abu Dhabi on Sunday and met with UAE’s President, according to Axios.
US Event Calendar
- 10:30 am: United States Sep Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 7.75, prior 11.6
Central Bank speakers
- 8:15 am: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Bank Supervision and Regulation
- 1:25 pm: United States Fed’s Cook Speaks on AI and Emerging Tech
- 1:30 pm: United States Fed’s Barkin in Fireside Chat
Main Rating Changes:
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
even though US-Iran talks could resume this week, there was little sign of a breakthrough over the weekend and bond yields and oil have climbed again this morning. Iran reiterated on Sunday that it would not soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisting that Tehran would not back down from demands including sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and an end to US blockade measures. Meanwhile President Trump said he still expected negotiations to continue but rejected Iran’s latest proposal as inadequate. So a stalemate but if you’re looking for some positives it’s that there does still seem to be a line of communication open.
10yr US yields are +3.8bps higher this morning with 2yr yields 4.6bps +higher. Brent is up +2.58% to $107.01. The Nikkei is flat, while the Hang Seng (+0.64%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.36%) are higher but with S&P 500 (-0.36%) and Nasdaq 100 (-0.67%) futures lower amid fresh technology-sector weakness after OpenAI indicated it was pausing development of certain advanced AI models after agents have been reported to have gone rogue across a number of recent incidents. Elsewhere South Korea and China have caught down to losses towards the end of last week as they were closed on Friday. The KOSPI (-2.44%) and CSI 300 (-2.15%) are sharply lower as a result, also weighed down by some tech weakness. European equity futures are up around a third of a percent.
It’s very busy week ahead with US payrolls (Friday) and PCE (Wednesday) blockbuster releases. The US ISM (Thursday) will attract outsized attention given the spectacular beat on the S&P PMI last week that sent 10yr US yields +15.2bps higher on the day. A huge move for such a report.
Global inflation will also be in focus outside of the US August PCE report with flash September CPI releases across Europe (Tuesday/Wednesday) and Tokyo CPI (Friday) all due. In Asia, investors will also be watching Chinese PMIs (Wednesday), the BoJ’s Tankan survey and summary of opinions (Thursday), as well as the RBA decision (tomorrow) where the market prices in a 93% probability of a hike. All that around month and quarter end on Wednesday.
In the US, attention will increasingly turn towards Friday’s September payrolls report. Following August’s stronger-than-expected gain of 162k, our economists expect payrolls to rise by around 45k in September (Friday), with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% and average hourly earnings growth steady at +0.3% month-on-month. Recent labour market indicators have remained reasonably firm, although some moderation after August’s strength would be consistent with a labour market that is cooling only gradually.
Ahead of Friday’s payrolls release, labour market data will begin arriving tomorrow with the August JOLTS report, before the September ADP employment release on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Together, these releases should help shape last minute expectations going into the official employment report. Note that last week saw claims at 197k, a rare dip below 200k.
Moving onto inflation, our economists expect the August core PCE deflator (Wednesday) to rise by +0.27% month-on-month, slightly above July’s pace. The report will be accompanied by personal income and spending data, where our economists expect gains of +0.5% and +0.6% respectively. Particular attention will be paid to the PCE release given the BEA’s annual benchmark revisions and methodology changes, which could alter the recent inflation profile and affect comparisons with previous months.
Elsewhere in the US, our economists expect the Conference Board consumer confidence index (tomorrow) to improve to 91.0 from 89.4, while the ISM manufacturing index (Thursday) is expected to rise to 55.1 from 54.6. Remember the S&P composite PMI hit 58.4 last week. We get the ISM services print next week. Wednesday’s final Q2 GDP release will also attract attention as it incorporates benchmark revisions that may reshape perceptions of recent growth trends. As we end the quarter, note that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is currently tracking at 5.02% for Q3.
Outside the US, European inflation data will dominate the calendar. Preliminary September CPI releases begin with Spain tomorrow, followed by Germany, France and Italy on Wednesday, before the Eurozone aggregate reading on Friday. Our economists expect Eurozone headline HICP inflation to print at 3.75% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.53%. In Japan, today’s BoJ minutes from the July meeting will be followed by the Q3 Tankan survey and September meeting summary of opinions on Thursday, while our economists expect Friday’s Tokyo CPI report to show a further firming in underlying inflation. China’s September PMIs are due on Wednesday, while the RBA announces its latest policy decision tomorrow, where our economists expect a 25bp rate increase.
Recapping last week now and bond yields continued to rise as several hawkish headlines led to fresh pressure. One factor was ongoing Middle East concerns, though Brent crude (+0.43% on the week; -2.14% Friday to $104.32/bbl) pared back most of its weekly rise on Friday amid reporting that US and Iran officials had moved into detailed technical discussions during the New York talks. Enthusiasm has obviously been dented again over the weekend.
But on top of that, there were multiple strong data releases from around the world, which added to expectations for rate hikes in the months ahead. Among others, the US flash composite PMI for September hit a 5-year high of 58.4, whilst the Eurozone equivalent hit a 3-year high of 53.1.
In the US, despite a partial pullback on Friday, the probability of a Fed hike in October climbed from 53% to 64% over the week. And in turn, the 10yr Treasury yield rose +16.6bps (+3.7bps Friday) to 5.16%, after hitting its highest level since 2007 on Thursday. There were even bigger milestones for the 30yr yield, which rose +16.5bps (+1.5bps Friday) to 5.49%. So that was its highest level since 2004, and also its biggest weekly jump since May. Elsewhere, the moves weren’t quite as big, but the 10yr bund yield still rose +8.3bps last week (+0.3bps Friday) to a post-2009 high of 3.60%.
Yet despite the rates selloff, the optimism on the growth side helped to sustain equities last week around the world. For instance, the S&P 500 was actually up +1.21% last week (+0.51% Friday), leaving the index within 1% of its record high. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX was up +0.50% (+0.35% Friday), and Japan’s Nikkei was up +2.07% (+1.30% Friday). That was supported by a rally among tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 group up +3.04% (-0.03% Friday).
When it came to other assets, the surge in Treasury yields and the hawkish Fed repricing meant the US Dollar was the strongest-performing G10 currency. Indeed, the dollar index was up +0.81% last week (-0.25% Friday). Meanwhile, gold prices fell -2.14% (+0.23% Friday), as higher real and nominal yields put downward pressure on precious metals as a non-interest-bearing asset.
Finally, credit saw a sizeable sell-off, with both US IG (+5bps) and HY spreads (+27bps), as well as EUR IG (+3bps) and HY (+13bps), widening. For US HY that marked the biggest weekly widening in almost a year. So credit markets showing some signs of coming under strain from the rise in yields even as equities remained resilient.
1 b) European opening report
Iran’s delegation reportedly has no plans for talks with the US; crude benchmarks gain, lifting yields – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 06:44 AM
- US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately. He expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal.
- Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA; Brent +3.3%.
- European bourses were initially firmer but now off best levels; NQ -1% lags on elevated yields and tech underperformance.
- DXY is steady; JPY strengthens on further jawboning from officials.
- Yields reside at multi-decade highs as energy benchmarks continue to rise; US 10yr holds at 5.23%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Barkin, Bowman, Cook and UK Chancellor Healey
SNAPSHOT
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As of 10:45BST / 05:45 EDT
LOOKING AHEAD
- Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Barkin, Bowman, Cook and UK Chancellor Healey
- Click here for the Week Ahead preview
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately because it is losing so badly.
- US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal, while he stated the conditions Iran wants are something the US may have agreed to around a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand, according to Axios.
- US President Trump said that as soon as the Iran war is over, which is soon, oil will drop, while he stated that they took out a record oil amount from Hormuz on Saturday night. Trump also stated that they will win against Iran in military and economic warfare, while he didn’t want to say regarding striking Iran before the Midterms and noted that Iran inflation was at 318%.
- US President Trump told Chinese President Xi during the summit to stop supporting Iran, according to Axios on Friday, citing US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue.
- Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they have seen the initial response from US President Trump to the 7-day ceasefire proposal, but are waiting to receive the official response via mediators, while he added that only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. Araghchi also stated that Iran’s conditions are clear and that any move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war and that they came to forge peace, while he added that Iran remains steadfast in the face of any aggression even if it comes to an apocalyptic war, but is at the same time, ready for real diplomacy.
Please see the geopolitics section below for more details
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) were broadly firmer this morning, but have come off best levels as energy benchmarks continue to rise and as yields remain elevated.
- European sectors hold a positive bias. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, joined closely by Retail and Consumer Products. The downside resides Basic Resources, with the sector dented by continued pressure in the metals space amidst elevated yields and geopolitical uncertainty. Also towards the bottom is Tech, following the negative bias set out by SK Hynix (-5%) and Samsung (-5.4%) overnight. For the former, it was recently confirmed that SK Hynix’s unit Solidigm is aiming for a US IPO, which would see SK Hynix essentially sharing Solidigm’s future earnings.
- Key Movers: Barrat Redrow (+13%) / Persimmon (+14%) gain after UK PM Burnham announces a new help-to-buy scheme to get first-time buyers on the housing ladder, named “Your First Home”.
- US equity futures are lower across the board, with underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ (-1%) vs the ES (-0.5%). This action comes amidst elevated yields and higher energy prices, and with Tech also pressured by the aforementioned SK Hynix report.
FX
- DXY is little changed overall, with the Buck caught between higher oil prices, yields and Fed tightening bets on one side, and notable JPY strength on the other (see below for more details). Friday’s hawkish Fed rhetoric remains on traders’ minds, with Hammack saying policy needs to be restrictive to bring inflation lower and that she does not currently see policy as restraining the economy. DXY trades around the 101 mark in a current 100.98-101.20 range (vs 100.87-101.31 range on Friday). Note, month- and quarter-end flows are also coming into traders’ views, with rebalancing likely to become more influential as month-end approaches.
- EUR/USD is modestly softer with little in the way of fresh bloc-specific drivers, leaving the pair largely at the whim of broader USD action but perhaps with some more influence from the GBP today. EUR/USD trades within a 1.1371-1.1391 range, with ECB’s Lagarde due for a text release at 15:00 BST.
- GBP is modestly firmer against the USD despite some caution around the UK fiscal outlook. PM Burnham hinted at new taxes to fund social care reform and acknowledged challenging circumstances heading into the Budget, while also announcing a new help-to-buy scheme. The spending narrative is being treated cautiously, although the potential growth impulse is being taken at face value for now, with Chancellor Healey still to come at 12:00BST, speaking at the Labour conference. As such, the stable open for Gilts seemingly provided traders with some relief for now. Before that, on the BoE front, Ramsden is due for a text release on QT at 11:00BST. GBP/USD trades towards the top of a 1.3218-1.3273 range.
- JPY is the clear G10 outperformer, extending gains after Japan’s top FX official Mimura said authorities are not satisfied or reassured by recent Yen price action and are watching whether markets take their “clear message” at face value. Mimura also mentioned the BoJ’s shift towards rate hikes and the subsequent result of the narrowing of the US-Japan yield gap. USD/JPY fell from around 157.55 to 157.25 on the remarks, and continued to fall to a trough of 156.50.
- Japanese FX Official Mimura said they are closely watching to see if markets take the clear message they are giving at face value. Not satisfied with or reassured by recent JPY action. BoJ’s clear shift onto a rate-hiking path is gradually narrowing the Japan-US yield gap. A clear message was sent to the US on rates.
FIXED INCOME
- A bearish start to the day, though only modestly so despite energy upside of in excess of USD 2.00/bbl. USTs hit a 104-15+ low in the European morning.
- The main updates being the US President rejecting the Iranian proposal, but despite that he expects talks with Iran to recommence this week. From Iran, the delegation in the US reportedly has no plans to speak with the US on such matters, though Iranian President Pezeshkian has said they remain ready for dialogue.
- The action has lifted yields across the globe and the curve, with the US curve modestly flatter given the near-term implications for energy, inflation and by extension the Fed from the lack of concrete progress on Hormuz. The US 10yr yield remains at a c. 5.23% recent peak, with both the short- and long-end of the curve also at/near multi-year highs.
- Gilts opened with modest pressure given the above, though the UK focus point has been the weekend’s briefings from UK PM Burnham and, to a lesser extent, Chancellor Healey. The Chancellor added little, but we await more detail from his 12:00BST speech today. From Burnham, he outlined reform to the housing market, hinted at a tax increase to fund his social care ambitions and seemingly didn’t rule out an early election; though, on the latter, the inference is more from the tone of the Kuenssberg interview than anything he explicitly said.
- Net, the above has been taken in relative stride by the market, with the pressure seen in fitting with EGBs and no further bearish impulse coming from the PM’s comments.
- Bunds in-fitting, at a 119.22 low with downside of 10 ticks at most. Reacting to the upside seen in global energy benchmarks and further gains for TTF on the Middle East uncertainty. Action that continues to keep the ECB’s October meeting live, and increases the odds of a back-to-back hike after September’s move.
- Japan Finance Ministry proposes the cut to mid-term JGB liquidity auctions, given improved JGB market functions; proposes reducing 5-11 year liquidity enhancement bond supply.
- Australia sold AUD 800mln 3.75% April 2037 bonds b/c 4.88, avg. yield 5.429%.
COMMODITIES
- WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are firmer after gapping higher at the open as US-Iran tensions somewhat picked up over the weekend (see below for details), with no notable de-escalation progress to report thus far following the UNGA. WTI Nov trades within a USD 92.68-95.75/bbl range, while Brent Dec trades within a USD 97.62-100.94/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer as renewed Middle East tensions add to European supply concerns, with the EU warning member states of a potential energy price crisis and urging them to continue filling storage while considering measures to curb demand. TTF trades towards the top end of a EUR 72.30-74.33/MWh range.
- Precious metals are sharply lower this morning as the renewed rise in oil prices adds to inflation concerns, pushing yields higher and reinforcing expectations for further Fed tightening. Spot gold has fallen through USD 4,200/oz and trades near the bottom of a USD 4,140-4,286/oz range. Spot silver underperforms to a greater extent, falling almost 5% at the time of writing to around USD 61.00/oz within a USD 60.95-64.26/oz range.
- Base metals are also softer amid the higher yield environment and broader selling across metals, while weaker Chinese data adds another headwind ahead of a holiday-shortened weekend for China.. Chinese Industrial Profits growth slowed to 4.2% Y/Y in August from 11.2%, with YTD growth easing to 15.7% from 17.6%. 3M LME copper resides at the bottom of a 14,376.58-14,612.00/t range.
- Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran said any reopening remains contingent on its conditions being met and its UN delegation reportedly has no plans for talks with the US. Trump nonetheless expects negotiations to resume this week, with the Iranian President this morning also supporting talks. Further, there was renewed Houthi activity against Saudi Arabia, with explosions reported in Riyadh and disruption at King Khalid International Airport. Traders are also mindful on US diesel policy after Trump said he is “thinking very seriously” about an export ban, despite earlier White House assurances that one would not be implemented.
- Qatar has reportedly extended its force majeure on LNG shipments to Asia and Europe by another month, Bloomberg reported.
- India Trade Minister Goyal said India is working with the UAE to expand strategic petroleum reserves.
- Libya’s NOC Chairman said the Sharara oil field is producing more than 300k BPD.
- Qatar to extend force majeure on LNG deliveries to Pakistan through November.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- China Commerce Ministry said we look forward to expanding China-US collaboration in the coal sector and that the sides agreed to form an agricultural working group, have also agreed to set up communication channel for AI incidents. China will review and approve applications from financial service institutions worldwide, including those with US capital, to operate and open branches. China expects US to offer fair, transparent, and stable policy environment for Chinese financial institutions. Both sides agree to keep talks on boosting China-US flights and related issues. Trade truce with US will remain in place through January 2027.
- White House said US and China confirmed agreement regarding a USD 30bln vs USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut. said:. Will consider certain US products for import into China and China is to import US coal in 2027-2028. China and US launch AI dialogue under the trade mechanism.
- US trade sources tell FBN there will be historic purchases announced in agreement with China. Both sides will also exempt more agriculture products, medical supplies, and lo-tech electronics from additional tariffs.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK PM Burnham hinted regarding new taxes to pay for social care reform and confirmed he wants care for the elderly and infirm to operate on NHS principles, while he didn’t deny that this would be paid for with tax increases.
- UK PM Burnham insisted he can deliver a real change for people in the country despite the nation facing severe economic headwinds, while he acknowledged they are facing a challenging set of circumstances at the budget. It was also reported that Burnham announced a new help-to-buy scheme to get first-time buyers on the housing ladder.
- UK PM Burnham suggested he could block plans for a third runway at Heathrow Airport.
- British police arrested several suspects over a ‘major incident’ near an airbase used by the US, while US President Trump said the men arrested at the UK airbase were looking to do ‘big damage’.
- France is mulling a change to the way payroll tax deductions are calculated in its 2027 budget bill, which would effectively be a payroll tax increase for firms and could bring in an additional EUR 3bln-3.5bln.
- Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia premier Wuest, who is a key figure in Chancellor Merz’s CDU, criticised the government regarding the pace of economic reforms and said delays in enacting legislation contributed to the party’s disastrous performance in regional elections this month.
- ECB’s Sleijpen said the Netherlands needs to keep government spending in check and that state debt will increase if they do nothing, while he warned it would be highly irresponsible to borrow more, which is also not good for inflation.
- Swedish Social Democrat leader Andersson said she will tell the parliament speaker she cannot form a government under the current circumstances.
- EU leaders are deadlocked over the next long term budget, Politico reported citing a German diplomatic cable; ahead of an October 15th meeting, a development that raises the prospect of there being no-deal by end-2026.
CENTRAL BANKS
- BoJ Minutes from July meeting stated members agreed financial conditions are accommodative and many members noted firms are steadily passing on rising raw material costs, keeping inflation elevated.
- BoE’s Dhingra said that she is worried that high rates would hit investment and lower supply.
- PBoC to inject CNY 661bln via overnight reverse repos.
- PBoC injected CNY 139bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.40% and CNY 300bln via 14-day reverse repos with rate at 1.25%.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7399 vs Exp. 6.7085 (prev. 6.7489).
- BoK said to closely monitor financial and forex markets.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said had an incredible meeting with Chinese President Xi, also noted that he’s having dinner tonight with Anthropic’s head at 10pm and will be meeting with Anthropic on Tuesday, adds Anthropic’s Dario is very highly respected.
- US President Trump announced that he approved new fuel economy standards that terminate former President Biden’s EV mandate, while he said the new standards will take the waste out of building cars in the US, which means lower prices, and noted that more than USD 100bln is being invested in American autos under his administration.
- US President Trump said he will talk about AI with Anthropic’s CEO Amodei, who was having dinner at the White House on Sunday, while Trump said he would tell Amodei, “let’s go, let’s win.”
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged Fed policymakers to keep an open mind regarding interest rates, while he argued that AI-driven productivity gains and deregulation would help curb US inflation. Furthermore, he said that core inflation has been very stable and fell in recent months.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Kallas said that intelligence reported indicate that Russia is planning further sabotage; called for focus on addressing gaps in Europe’s defence capabilities. EU’s Naval Aspides Mission requires more naval assets to be operational, adding that the need is bigger than it has ever been.
- EU countries consider NATO-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks which have included drone attacks, bombs and arson, according to FT.
- US President Trump said he told Ukrainian President Zelensky to take it easy on refineries.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Sunday morning that Russian strikes overnight killed four in Ukraine and damaged a data centre in Kyiv.
- EU countries consider NATO-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks which have included drone attacks, bombs and arson, according to FT.
MIDDLE EAST
Iran:
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said regional states can safeguard their own security, and he denied Iran’s direct involvement in Yemen, describing the situation as unrelated to Iran, but stated that Iran is ready to help resolve the conflict and urged Houthis and Saudi Arabia to enter talks instead of escalating.
- IRGC spokesman said not only is the Strait of Hormuz not open, but it is a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy against US submersibles.
- Iran army spokesman said Iran’s armed forces are prepared for any renewed US attacks after US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran.
- Local sources reported that a sea cruiser fired at a violating vessel in an unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
- Saudi authorities suspended in-person classes in Riyadh for a week on Sunday, following reports the day before that Saudi air defences said they intercepted Houthi drones headed toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran remains ready for dialogue despite being attacked during previous talks, but pressure and attacks will not force Iran to surrender.
- Source said Iran is prepared to compromise on its nuclear programme but wants guarantees Israel will not attack again after a US deal, N12 reported.
- What Western media outlets are promoting regarding the negotiations is false news, reported Al Mayadeen citing high-ranking Iranian security source. The reason for the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the Americans’ failure to fulfill their commitments. Iran has informed the American side of its seven conditions, and the ball is now in the American court. The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened through tweets or misleading news published by media outlets close to the White House.
- Iran Foreign Minister said we have not closed the door to diplomacy despite American violations; choice now rests with US. If the conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz and maritime traffic can be reopened within 7 days. We will open the Strait of Hormuz on the sixth day of implementing the plan. We will return to negotiations with America on the seventh day of implementing the plan. The 7-day deadline begins as soon as the United States accepts the plan we proposed. Tehran will not yield to pressure or relinquish its sovereign rights. Plan’s requirements are similar to those in the MoU with the US.
- Iran Foreign Minister said we are committed to protecting freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and its security cannot be restored through military blockade and escalation. We conveyed a message to America via Qatar, consisting of a 7-day plan. Our position is clear regarding the ongoing developments, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
- IRGC Spokesperson said we will not stop punishing the US until Iran’s seven conditions are met; our missiles are capable of destroying America’s multi-layered defenses, Fars reported.
- Iranian Real Admiral Siyari said they are fully in control of the Strait of Hormuz, Defa reported; “we act assertively in the north of the Sea of Oman and east of the Strait of Hormuz and will not allow anyone to attempt passage”.
- Eight US Marines were injured two weeks ago when an Iranian cruise missile attacked the ship they were operating on in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by NBC News.
Other:
- Yemeni sources say Armed Forces aircraft carried out several airstrikes on Houthi positions in Al-Rabeei, west of Taiz, Al Arabiya reported.
- Saudi artillery and missile attacks on the border county of Saada in Yemen, according to SNN.
- Saudi’s Foreign Minister arrives in Washington to meet with US Secretary of State Rubio.
- Iraqi sources report suspension of flights at Erbil Airport in Iraq following reported of attack on separatist party headquarters, according to SNN.
- US President Trump administration officials said US has no plans to sell weapons to China after US ambassador to Beijing, Perdue, told an interviewer that President Trump at one point offered to sell US arms to Chinese President Xi, according to WSJ.
- Explosions reportedly heard in Erbil, northern Iraq, according to SNN.
- Several commercial aircraft were not being allowed to land at King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia, following reported of explosions heard in Saudi Arabia.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu visited Abu Dhabi on Sunday and met with UAE’s President, according to Axios.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin (-2%) is lower this morning and trades just shy of the USD 83k mark, whilst Ethereum holds around USD 2.6k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks began the week mixed as higher oil prices spurred hawkish rate bets and following mixed geopolitical headlines over the weekend, in which US President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal for a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but expects talks to resume this week.
- ASX 200 traded higher with gains led by strength in the top-weighted financial sector, but with the upside capped heading into a widely anticipated rate hike by the RBA tomorrow.
- Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index fading an initial rally amid higher yields and as participants also digested firmer-than-expected Services PPI data, while former BoJ official Momma touted the possibility of the central bank hiking rates again in October.
- KOSPI suffered on return from a 4-day closure with notable selling in the local tech behemoths.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark edged higher, while the mainland was heavily pressured at the start of a holiday-shortened trading week following a slowdown in Industrial Profits, while the PBoC’s liquidity efforts and a US-China agreement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff reduction framework failed to spur risk appetite.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Australian Treasurer Chalmers confirmed Australia’s 2025-2026 budget deficit was AUD 6bln less than forecast.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese Industrial Profits YY (Aug) 4.2% (prev. 11.2%).
- Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) (Aug YY) 15.7% (Prev. 17.6%).
- Japanese Services PPI YY (Aug) 3.7% vs Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%).
1c) Asian opening report
Trump rejects Iran deal but expects talks to resume this week; crude, yields and dollar rise – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 02:09 AM
- US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately.
- US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal.
- Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.
- Crude futures were lifted at the open; 10yr UST futures declined with yields higher across the curve, DXY traded mildly higher amid upside in oil and yields.
- APAC stocks began the week mixed as higher oil prices spurred hawkish rate bets; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.
- Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from ECB’s Elderson & Lagarde, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Barkin. Supply from the Eurozone.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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SNAPSHOT
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately because it is losing so badly.
- US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal, while he stated the conditions Iran wants are something the US may have agreed to around a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand, according to Axios.
- US President Trump said that as soon as the Iran war is over, which is soon, oil will drop, while he stated that they took out a record oil amount from Hormuz on Saturday night. Trump also stated that they will win against Iran in military and economic warfare, while he didn’t want to say regarding striking Iran before the Midterms and noted that Iran inflation was at 318%.
- US President Trump told Chinese President Xi during the summit to stop supporting Iran, according to Axios on Friday, citing US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue.
- Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they have seen the initial response from US President Trump to the 7-day ceasefire proposal, but are waiting to receive the official response via mediators, while he added that only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. Araghchi also stated that Iran’s conditions are clear and that any move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war and that they came to forge peace, while he added that Iran remains steadfast in the face of any aggression even if it comes to an apocalyptic war, but is at the same time, ready for real diplomacy.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said regional states can safeguard their own security, and he denied Iran’s direct involvement in Yemen, describing the situation as unrelated to Iran, but stated that Iran is ready to help resolve the conflict and urged Houthis and Saudi Arabia to enter talks instead of escalating.
- IRGC spokesman said not only is the Strait of Hormuz not open, but it is a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy against US submersibles.
- Iran army spokesman said Iran’s armed forces are prepared for any renewed US attacks after US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran.
- Local sources reported that a sea cruiser fired at a violating vessel in an unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
- Eight US Marines were injured two weeks ago when an Iranian cruise missile attacked the ship they were operating on in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by NBC News.
- Saudi authorities suspended in-person classes in Riyadh for a week on Sunday, following reports the day before that Saudi air defences said they intercepted Houthi drones headed toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.
- Saudi Arabia conducted artillery and missile attacks on the border county of Saada, Yemen.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu visited Abu Dhabi on Sunday and met with the UAE’s President.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks finished higher on Friday, with the Dow outperforming, while the Russell lagged. Most sectors closed in the green, led by Technology, Industrials, Consumer Staples and Financials, while Energy was the clear laggard alongside lower crude, followed by Communication Services and Real Estate. Macro focus centred on renewed US-Iran diplomatic optimism as reports suggested negotiations have moved into a more detailed technical phase, while the Iranian President signalled readiness for an agreement with the US, although Iranian sources subsequently pushed back on the prospect of imminent progress.
- SPX +0.51% at 7,743, NDX +0.42% at 30,608, DJI +0.93% at 51,834, RUT +0.07% at 2,838.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US and China said they agreed to a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff reduction and to launch a bilateral dialogue on AI, according to WSJ.
- White House said US and China confirmed an agreement regarding a USD 30bln vs USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut, while they will consider certain US products for import into China, and China will import US coal in 2027-2028.
- China Commerce Ministry said they look forward to expanding China-US collaboration in the coal sector and that the sides agreed to form an agricultural working group, while they have also agreed to set up a communication channel for AI incidents. (Newswires)
- China signalled it could allow some domestic companies such as ByteDance and Alibaba (9988 HK) to buy Nvidia (NVDA) chips built for high-end computers, according to The Information.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged Fed policymakers to keep an open mind regarding interest rates, while he argued that AI-driven productivity gains and deregulation would help curb US inflation. Furthermore, he said that core inflation has been very stable and fell in recent months.
- US President Trump announced that he approved new fuel economy standards that terminate former President Biden’s EV mandate, while he said the new standards will take the waste out of building cars in the US, which means lower prices, and noted that more than USD 100bln is being invested in American autos under his administration.
- US President Trump said he will talk about AI with Anthropic’s CEO Amodei, who was having dinner at the White House on Sunday, while Trump said he would tell Amodei, “let’s go, let’s win.”
- Bill Gates joined calls for AI safeguards, including legislation, while he stated that law enforcement and politicians need to get in discussion regarding safeguards and monitoring.
- Several commercial aircraft were not being allowed to land at King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia, following reports of explosions heard in Saudi Arabia.
- OpenAI agents bombarded a UN website with search requests and used a variety of aggressive techniques to access data on the system in June, according to a research report cited by WSJ.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks began the week mixed as higher oil prices spurred hawkish rate bets and following mixed geopolitical headlines over the weekend, in which US President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal for a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but expects talks to resume this week.
- ASX 200 traded higher with gains led by strength in the top-weighted financial sector, but with the upside capped heading into a widely anticipated rate hike by the RBA tomorrow.
- Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index fading an initial rally amid higher yields and as participants also digested firmer-than-expected Services PPI data, while former BoJ official Momma touted the possibility of the central bank hiking rates again in October.
- KOSPI suffered on return from a 4-day closure with notable selling in the local tech behemoths.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark edged higher, while the mainland was heavily pressured at the start of a holiday-shortened trading week following a slowdown in Industrial Profits, while the PBoC’s liquidity efforts and a US-China agreement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff reduction framework failed to spur risk appetite.
- US equity futures retreated with Nasdaq futures leading the downside amid upside in oil and yields.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Friday.
FX
- DXY traded mildly higher amid upside in oil and yields, while there was also a continued boost to Fed rate hike bets and hawkish comments from Fed officials last Friday, including Hammack, who stated the Fed needs to make sure policy is at a restrictive stance to lower inflation and that she does not see current policy as restraining the economy.
- EUR/USD pared early losses and returned to flat territory with few notable drivers for the single currency, although there are a couple of ECB speakers scheduled later, including Lagarde.
- GBP/USD struggled for direction with the currency unmoved by UK PM Burnham signalling new taxes to pay for social care reform as he seeks a universal service for social care similar to NHS principles.
- USD/JPY continued its rebound from support around 157.00 amid higher oil prices and US yields.
- Antipodeans pared early losses ahead of a widely expected RBA rate hike tomorrow.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7399 vs Exp. 6.7085 (prev. 6.7489).
- SNB President Schlegel said the central bank is in a comfortable situation amid muted expectations for inflation in Switzerland.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures declined with yields higher across the curve as the upside in oil stoked inflationary concerns and boosted Fed rate hike bets, while there was also hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials on Friday.
- Bund futures were contained and lingered beneath the 120.00 level amid a lack of pertinent drivers.
- 10yr JGB futures retreated amid higher oil prices and firmer-than-expected Japanese Services PPI data.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were lifted at the open after US President Trump rejected Iran’s 7-day peace deal proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although he expects talks to resume this week, while it was also reported that Yemeni Houthis targeted Riyadh and flight landings were disrupted at King Khalid International Airport following explosions heard in Saudi Arabia.
- US President Trump said he is thinking very seriously regarding a diesel export ban and may do it, while he blamed a diesel shortage on Ukraine hitting a Russian refinery and said a diesel export ban may cause a little increase in car gasoline.
- US Senator Cruz said late on Friday that the White House offered assurances that the Trump administration won’t ban US diesel exports.
- EU warned member states of a potential energy price crisis driven by the Middle East conflict, while it asked them to consider measures to reduce demand and continue filling gas storage ahead of winter.
- Spot gold slumped to beneath the USD 4,200/oz level amid higher yields and hawkish Fed bets, while the pressure coincided with a drop across the metals complex and was led by silver, which fell by more than 3%.
- Copper futures retreated alongside the selling in metals, with prices also not helped by the ultimately mixed risk appetite and weakness in its largest buyer following a slowdown in Chinese Industrial Profits.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin steadily retreated throughout most of the session, with prices back beneath the USD 84,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Minutes from the July meeting stated members agreed financial conditions are accommodative and many noted that firms are steadily passing on rising raw material costs, keeping inflation elevated. Many members stated medium and long-term inflation expectations are heightening both for households and companies, while many members said price rises for consumer goods are likely to broaden from summer onwards and that underlying inflation is recently approaching 2%, requiring focus on stabilising price growth around that level. Furthermore, a few members said consumer prices are showing signs of rising, reflecting higher import costs, while one member said markets appear to expect BoJ to raise rates about once every six months, but added that hikes could come more quickly.
- South Korea‘s excess tax revenue could surpass KRW 50tln this year amid a stronger-than-expected semiconductor cycle, according to Yonhap.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Industrial Profits YY (Aug) 4.2% (prev. 11.2%)
- Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) (Aug YY) 15.7% (Prev. 17.6%)
- Japanese Services PPI YY (Aug) 3.7% vs Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump said he told Ukrainian President Zelensky to take it easy on refineries.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Sunday morning that Russian strikes overnight killed four in Ukraine and damaged a data centre in Kyiv.
- EU countries consider NATO-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks which have included drone attacks, bombs and arson, according to FT.
OTHER
- US President Trump said the Taiwan issue came up during meetings with Chinese President Xi, but noted that they didn’t talk about it too much and that Xi understands how he feels.
- Trump administration officials said the US has no plans to sell weapons to China after US ambassador to Beijing, Perdue, told an interviewer that President Trump at one point offered to sell US arms to Chinese President Xi, according to WSJ
- China’s Southern Theatre Command conducted a joint air and sea training exercise around the Scarborough Shoal on Sunday.
- Proposed US military base in Poland will cost as much as USD 4.4bln and could be open as early as 2029.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Burnham hinted regarding new taxes to pay for social care reform and confirmed he wants care for the elderly and infirm to operate on NHS principles, while he didn’t deny that this would be paid for with tax increases.
- UK PM Burnham insisted he can deliver a real change for people in the country despite the nation facing severe economic headwinds, while he acknowledged they are facing a challenging set of circumstances at the budget. It was also reported that Burnham announced a new help-to-buy scheme to get first-time buyers on the housing ladder.
- UK PM Burnham suggested he could block plans for a third runway at Heathrow Airport.
- British police arrested several suspects over a ‘major incident’ near an airbase used by the US, while US President Trump said the men arrested at the UK airbase were looking to do ‘big damage’.
- France is mulling a change to the way payroll tax deductions are calculated in its 2027 budget bill, which would effectively be a payroll tax increase for firms and could bring in an additional EUR 3bln-3.5bln.
- Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia premier Wuest, who is a key figure in Chancellor Merz’s CDU, criticised the government regarding the pace of economic reforms and said delays in enacting legislation contributed to the party’s disastrous performance in regional elections this month.
- ECB’s Sleijpen said the Netherlands needs to keep government spending in check and that state debt will increase if they do nothing, while he warned it would be highly irresponsible to borrow more, which is also not good for inflation.
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/USA
END
JAPAN
JAPAN//USA
3. CHINA
CHINA/USA
China Pledges Major US Coal Purchases But Falls Short On Rare Earth Crisis Resolution
Saturday, Sep 26, 2026 – 09:55 AM
Barclays senior China economist Yingke Zhou poured cold water on the Trump-Xi state visit this past week, calling it “more signaling, less substance.”
Shortages of rare earths and critical materials in the West, caused by China’s weaponization of its export channels in what can only be viewed as resource nationalism, have yet to be resolved.
But there was some good news, though not on the critical materials front: Bloomberg reported early Saturday that China is planning to purchase 20 million metric tons of US coal over two years.
Beijing committed to importing at least 10 million metric tons in 2027 and another 10 million in 2028. The two countries will also pursue preferential tariffs covering $30 billion of non-sensitive goods from both economies under an agreement reached through the US-China Board of Trade.
Meanwhile, the White House said US and Chinese trade negotiators would continue addressing US concerns over shortages of rare earths and other critical minerals. The statement described further work on those bottlenecks, rather than a resolution.
Stifel critical materials analyst Brock Cannon laid out last week that investors want to begin “Owning the Bottlenecks” – in other words, ex-China producing mines that can deliver critical material supplies to the West today.
The bad news: no resolution to supplies of rare earths and critical materials being choked by Beijing. The good news, however, is that China is willing to buy US coal.
But if Phase 1 of the trade deal during Trump’s first term is any indication, China usually doesn’t abide by its agreements. US farmers found that out the hard way when China began boosting agricultural imports from South America.
END
CHINA
China Extends Mortgages To 40 Years, But Homebuyers Remain Reluctant To Borrow
Sunday, Sep 27, 2026 – 09:50 PM
Authored by Michael Zhuang via The Epoch Times,
China’s decision to extend the maximum term for individual home mortgages from 30 years to 40 years has received a lukewarm response from homebuyers.
Several major Chinese banks moved quickly to offer 40-year mortgages after the policy took effect, with some advertising approval times as short as 15 minutes. However, Chinese media reports indicate that relatively few prospective buyers are opting for the longer loans.
The policy change, announced jointly by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration on Aug. 28, allows individual home mortgages to run for up to 40 years, according to Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency.
The PBOC said the longer term would give borrowers and lenders greater flexibility and help promote a “virtuous cycle” between finance and the property sector.
However, the longer repayment period has done little to change a broader shift in household behavior. Chinese consumers are still reluctant to take on additional debt and are instead seeking to reduce their existing liabilities.
Households Pull Back From Debt
Chinese news portal Sina reported on Sept. 20 that banks had been actively promoting the new mortgage option, but prospective buyers remained cautious.
A report by the Chinese media outlet China Times, via Sina, attributed the weak demand to households’ growing reluctance to take on debt as China’s economy slows.
PBOC data showed that household loans fell by 1.03 trillion yuan ($150 billion) during the first eight months of 2026, according to state-run mouthpiece Xinhua.
The slowdown is particularly pronounced in longer-term household borrowing, which includes mortgages. Such loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan ($33 billion) during the first half of 2026, according to data from China’s Ministry of Commerce.
Another sign of the shift came in April, when repayments of long-term household loans exceeded new loans issued that month. The scale of early repayments reached a record high.
Chinese media Securities Times, in a report carried by Sina, described the trend as Chinese households collectively seeking to “quit” mortgages.
Mike Li, a U.S.-based investment consultant and China expert, told The Epoch Times that the longer mortgage terms do not address the underlying financial pressure facing households.
“The regime is trying to ease borrowers’ economic pressure by extending the repayment period, but the pressure is only being postponed and has not actually been reduced,” Li said.
The reluctance to take on mortgages comes as China’s housing market remains in a prolonged downturn.
Falling home prices create an additional obstacle for households considering a long-term mortgage. Buyers taking on large mortgages face the risk that their homes’ values could decline while their outstanding debt remains high.
Li said this could also create risks for banks if borrowers begin to default.
“If a default occurs, when banks dispose of the property, they may face a decline in the property’s value, insufficient collateral, increased disposal costs, and a lower recovery rate,” he said.
Li said the broader policy response had so far failed to reverse the weakness in the property market or revive consumption.
“The policies introduced by the Chinese Communist Party so far have had very little effect. The property market has not been rescued, and consumption has not improved,” he said.
Jon Sun contributed to this report.
END
CHINA
China Stocks Sink To One-Year Low As Proposed US Curbs Hammer Optical Suppliers
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 07:20 AM
The CSI 300 Index, a leading benchmark tracking 300 of the largest stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell to a one-year low Monday. The index, roughly comparable to the S&P 500, came under pressure as co-packaged optics (CPO) shares sold off following a Reuters report of proposed US restrictions on Chinese optical transceivers used in sensitive government systems and data centers.
UBS’s Lucy Zhang offered clients a first take on the Reuters report and the resulting selloff in Chinese stocks overnight:
China A-shares were under broad-based pressure Monday, led by a sharp selloff in the co-packaged optic (CPO) complex following press reports of fresh US policy restrictions.
Zhongji Innolight fell 9% and Eoptolink dropped 8%, weighing on the broader technology space, as investors reacted to proposed US restrictions targeting Chinese optical transceivers.
The weakness came against an already fragile backdrop following the Trump-Xi summit, which delivered few concrete outcomes. Growth and technology heavy indices underperformed, with the ChiNext Index down 4.5% and the STAR 50 down 4.1%, as selling pressure spread across AI, optical networking, and broader TMT names.
The combination of policy uncertainty, crowded positioning, and limited positive catalysts continues to weigh on market sentiment in the near term. A-share full-day turnover remained at RMB1.7 trn, broadly in line with the August-September average, indicating limited buy-on-dip flows ahead of the long holiday.
Meanwhile, The Information separately reported that Beijing may allow Alibaba and ByteDance to purchase Nvidia’s RTX Pro 5500 chips, potentially intensifying competition for homegrown suppliers.
The onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index closed 2.2% lower Monday, tumbling to levels last seen in August 2025. The decline leaves the index vulnerable to further downside toward 4,000, with limited technical support that could amplify the move.
Last week’s Trump-Xi summit, as described by Barclays senior China economist Yingke Zhou, was “more signaling, less substance,” adding, “The Trump-Xi summit was primarily about stabilizing relations rather than resolving disputes. Beyond a short trade-truce extension, progress was limited. The absence of Chinese CEOs suggests China viewed the summit as a strategic dialogue, not a deal-making exercise.”
end
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
NETHERLANDS
“The Netherlands Also Has Islamic Grooming Gangs”; Dutch MP Warns After 18-Year-Old Girl Raped By 10 Men
Saturday, Sep 26, 2026 – 08:20 AM
An 18-year-old woman has been gang raped and beaten by up to ten different men, many of them with a Syrian background, in the Dutch city of Dordrecht. Although the rape occurred in May 2025, the suspects are only now being arrested. In response to the rape, political leader Geert Wilders wrote that the Netherlands also has Islamic grooming gangs and called for all the perpetrators to be removed from the country along with their families.
Six suspects have now been arrested, aged 20 to 23. During the incident, the girl, who lived in a residential group home, was driven to two different parking lots and raped by several men, some of whom filmed the assault and shared it on Snapchat. Police say the woman was humiliated and beaten.
“A bruise on the cheek, a tooth through the lip and a swelling on the knee,” described one source.
“It is a very serious criminal offense where all boundaries have been crossed and the victim has been treated very disrespectfully. As if she were an object that everyone could use.”
The incident has already attracted attention from politicians in the Netherlands, including PVV leader Geert Wilders.
“Teen victim of gang rape by Syrians. Raped by ten boys at different parking lots. The Netherlands also has Islamic grooming gangs. The Netherlands needs an unprecedented cleanup. All that scum out. With their families. No mercy,“ he wrote on X.
The first introductory court hearing took place on Sept. 23, 2026. Only 23-year-old S.S., described by the prosecutor as having played a leading role, and identified in court reporting as Syrian-born, was required to appear. Of the other five suspects, two of them are S.S.’s brother and cousin, who were arrested that Wednesday morning.
The investigation by the Rotterdam police Sexual Offences Team is still open, and prosecutors believe as many as ten men were involved.
According to the prosecution, the young woman accepted a lift to a train station from three strangers but they never brought her there. She was taken first to one parking lot, where S.S. raped her, and then to a second parking lot where, prosecutors say other men also raped her.
The Public Prosecution Service also told the court that the suspects “discussed and coordinated their statements in detail.” Even so, the accounts given by S.S. diverge from those of the others. His lawyer said that was because he did not want to inform against his brother and cousin.
S.S. himself told the judges the girl got into the car of her own accord.
“We didn’t force her to do anything,” he told police.
He is requesting to be released while his court trial is pending.
“I don’t want to ruin my future. If I stay stuck, all I’m going to be in debt,” he said.
The court refused. Judges said the images, the statements, and conversations overheard by police were enough to keep him in custody for now. He is due back for another introductory hearing in early December.
Remarkably, there was already a case in 2025 involving gang rape in the Netherlands involving ten suspects and a 15-year-old girl, mostly Syrians. Geert Wilders had also called attention to the case, writing: “50 percent of all suspects of sexual offenses are of foreign origin. Only the PVV will throw that criminal scum out of the country and immediately implement an asylum stop.”
END
ITALY
Italian Energy Giant Eni Caps Fuel Prices As Refining Crunch Drives Costs Higher
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,
Italian energy major Eni will cap fuel prices at its Enilive service stations beginning September 28 as tighter refined-product supplies and reduced European refining capacity continue to put upward pressure on pump prices.
The company said diesel sold through Enilive will be capped at €2.19 per liter, while petrol will be limited to €1.99 per liter. Eni said the caps are roughly €0.17 per liter below current average price levels.
The measure will initially remain in place for 30 days and could be extended through the end of 2026 depending on fuel-market conditions and supply trends.
Eni said the initiative is linked to excise-tax relief currently in force in Italy and is intended to reduce the impact of elevated fuel prices on households and businesses.
European fuel markets have faced renewed pressure from geopolitical disruptions, constrained refined-product availability and a long-term decline in regional refining capacity. Eni said nearly 30 European refineries have closed over the past 15 years, leaving the market more exposed when supplies tighten or imports are disrupted.
The Italian major said it has already been absorbing part of the increase in international fuel prices since March rather than fully passing higher wholesale costs through to recommended pump prices.
The latest intervention comes as European countries continue to grapple with the consequences of shrinking conventional refining capacity while attempting to transition toward lower-carbon fuels.
Eni is maintaining refining-related investments in Italy through its Enilive business, including its biorefineries in Venice and Gela. The company is also transforming its Livorno industrial site and other domestic facilities as part of a strategy focused increasingly on biofuels and lower-carbon products.
Those projects allow Eni to retain domestic processing capacity while shifting part of its downstream portfolio away from traditional petroleum refining.
[ZH: Last week saw US diesel prices decouple (lower) from EU prices amid chatter of a US export ban…]
The price cap also illustrates the increasing pressure on European refiners and fuel retailers to balance volatile international product prices with government efforts to limit the impact of energy costs on consumers.
END
UK/USA/IRAN
“Looking To Do Big Damage”: Trump Says Suspected UK Airbase Plotters Had Been Under Surveillance
Sunday, Sep 27, 2026 – 08:45 PM
Summary:
- Reuters Says Possible Iranian-Linked Motive Likely
- Trump Says Suspects “Looking to do Big Damage” Against Airbase
- US Stealth Bomber Base In UK On “Delta” Alert As Counter-Terror Police Make Arrests, Deploy Bomb Squad Search Of Vans
Trump Says Suspects “Looking to do Big Damage”
Reuters reported that an Iranian-linked motive could very well be behind the incident that unfolded early Sunday morning, citing a source familiar with the investigation. Counterterrorism investigators are also examining the possibility of Russian sabotage or an Islamist plot.
President Trump told reporters earlier this afternoon that British and US authorities had been monitoring the suspects and alleged they intended to cause “big damage.”
“We had them under investigation. They were looking to do big damage to our fort and working with the British worked out great … We had them under view for a long time, and we got them,” Trump said.
Police established a 400-meter perimeter while bomb-disposal personnel examined the three vans near RAF Fairford in western England. Notably, the airfield hosts strategic US bombers.
The bomb squad found large black barrels inside the vans.
RAF Fairford has become a critical node for US military operations against Iran. Tehran warned in July that airbases used to launch attacks would be considered legitimate targets.
Here’s the latest from X user Politics UK:
- A farmer driving home in the early hours found three white vans blocking a village road with no one inside
- Suspicious, she immediately turned around before seeing a “group of Middle Eastern-looking young guys run off through the trees” in the direction of the air base wearing masks
- One van displayed a UK number for a company called “Fuel 2You”, which is not registered on Companies House. The number also appeared to be one digit short and does not ring when called
- She immediately called 999 and five men were arrested within 25 minutes under the Explosives Act. Homes were evacuated and a major incident was declared just after 8am
- Later today, the two rear doors of two of the vans were open and large black containers could be seen scattered around with a bomb disposal robot operating next to the vans
- The five suspects were then further arrested on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act
- Counter Terror Police are understood to think that a suspected bomb plot linked to Iran is the most likely scenario due to US air bombers operating from the base
- Last night, before the incident, reports said that the base was at its highest alert with tractors blocking all gates. A local in the village said they had been stopped at gunpoint at a roadblock by a group of American soldiers, who ordered them to put their hands out of the car and identify themselves
US Stealth Bomber Base In UK On “Delta” Alert As Counter-Terror Police Make Arrests, Deploy Bomb Squad Search Of Vans
British counterterrorism police declared a major incident near RAF Fairford, an airbase used by the US Air Force, after several men were arrested on suspicion of explosives offenses. RAF Fairford was reportedly placed on “Delta,” the highest threat level, according to the national news agency Press Association, now known as PA Media.
PA Media reports that military bomb disposal specialists were examining vehicles in Whelford, Gloucestershire, where authorities declared a major incident and evacuated residents from the area.
Villagers have been evacuated from their homes near RAF Fairford, which is used by the United States Air Force (USAF), and the Army’s explosives experts are examining vehicles, police said.
According to the agency, counter-terror police had no advance knowledge of a potential plot.
However, the incident was serious enough for RAF Fairford to block major entrances to the airbase with massive front-end loaders, suggesting concern about a possible vehicle-borne improvised explosive device.
Why could RAF Fairford have been a target? The US Air Force’s 501st Combat Support Wing operates out of the airbase. It supports B-52, B-1, and B-2 bomber operations that have been crucial in the Gulf conflict against Iran.
Visegrád 24: First image of the suspected terror cell arrested near RAF Fairford from where U.S. strategic bombers B-52 & B-1B hit Iran The men arrested under the Explosives Act had their clothes taken off to see whether they wore suicide vests.
Visegrád 24: These are the vans that the bomb squad is have a closer look at near RAF Fairford in the UK. RAF Fairford is the base from where the U.S. strategic bombers B-52 and B-1B have been taking off from for striking missions against Iran.
Speculation builds…
The Independent noted, “The arrests come amid heightened concerns around the threat from hostile states to the UK, with Russia and Iran among those that have used proxies to commit crimes on their behalf on British soil.”
END
Authorities Warn Against “Speculation” After Five British Nationals Arrested Near UK Airbase On Suspicion Of Terrorism
Tuesday, Sep 29, 2026 – 08:58 AM
Summary:
- All Five Suspects Arrested On Terrorism and Explosives Suspicions are British Nationals
- Reuters Says Possible Iranian-Linked Motive Likely
- Trump Says Suspects “Looking to do Big Damage” Against Airbase
- US Stealth Bomber Base In UK On “Delta” Alert As Counter-Terror Police Make Arrests, Deploy Bomb Squad Search Of Vans
All Five Suspects Arrested On Terrorism and Explosives Suspicions are British Nationals
Five men were arrested near RAF Fairford early Sunday morning on suspicion of terrorism and explosives offenses.
Reuters reports that the men were all in their mid-twenties and were British nationals living in London.
“At this time, we are working to establish the full circumstances of the activity of those arrested, their knowledge and any motivation behind this incident,” Counter Terrorism Police said in the statement.
“I am very aware of the levels of speculation about the motivation behind this incident, and the geopolitical questions that are being raised. However, I ask that at this time, Counter Terrorism Policing are given the space to work carefully and clearly.”
RAF Fairford is a critical node for the US military’s long-range bomber force, supporting deployments of B-52s, B-1B Lancers and B-2 stealth bombers. Its role in strikes on Iran makes a conflict-related motive worth considering.
UK authorities have not publicly established that connection, but the strategic airbase raises the possibility that the suspected activity was intended to disrupt US bomber operations beyond the Gulf area.
Trump Says Suspects “Looking to do Big Damage”
Reuters reported that an Iranian-linked motive could very well be behind the incident that unfolded early Sunday morning, citing a source familiar with the investigation. Counterterrorism investigators are also examining the possibility of Russian sabotage or an Islamist plot.
President Trump told reporters earlier this afternoon that British and US authorities had been monitoring the suspects and alleged they intended to cause “big damage.”
“We had them under investigation. They were looking to do big damage to our fort and working with the British worked out great … We had them under view for a long time, and we got them,” Trump said.
END
UK//
you have to be kidding us?????
British Police Release All Five RAF Fairford Terror Suspects On Bail
Tuesday, Sep 29, 2026 – 11:27 AM
Summary:
- British Police Release All Five Suspects on Bail
- All Five Suspects Arrested On Terrorism and Explosives Suspicions are British Nationals
- Reuters Says Possible Iranian-Linked Motive Likely
- Trump Says Suspects “Looking to do Big Damage” Against Airbase
- US Stealth Bomber Base In UK On “Delta” Alert As Counter-Terror Police Make Arrests, Deploy Bomb Squad Search Of Vans
All Five Suspects Arrested On Terrorism and Explosives Suspicions Released On Bail
British police released five men on bail Monday following their arrests on suspicion of terrorism and explosives offenses near RAF Fairford, according to Reuters. All five remain under investigation.
“To be very clear, this does not mean the investigation is over,” Counter Terrorism Policing chief Laurence Taylor told reporters on Monday afternoon.
Taylor said, “They are subject to stringent conditions on their movement and contact with others. They absolutely remain under investigation as we explore multiple lines of inquiry.”
“We are considering this from every possible angle,” Taylor added, “including that this may be activity committed by proxies, or individuals either knowingly or unknowingly, working on behalf of a foreign state.”
The decision to release all five suspects on bail is very questionable given the seriousness of the suspected terrorism and explosives offences and the investigation into possible foreign-state involvement.
UK
Boat Migrants Who Have Entered Britain Now Outnumber Its Soldiers
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
Britain now has more illegal Channel arrivals under the Labour government, which has been in power two years, than it has soldiers in the British Army.
Home Office figures put small-boat arrivals since Labour took office on 4 July 2024 at 83,279. The regular Army stands at 83,000.
On Wednesday alone, 781 people came ashore – the worst single day since Andy Burnham replaced Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister in July. The first three days of the week delivered 1,085 arrivals. Across 809 days of Labour government, that works out at roughly 103 people a day.
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the milestone speaks for itself. “Labour has let an entire army-sized population cross the Channel illegally,” he said. “More people have arrived in small boats than we have soldiers defending Britain. That is completely bonkers. Labour has lost control of our borders and seems utterly incapable of getting it back.“
Former Royal Navy officer Chris Parry went further. Labour’s intake, he said, amounts to six-and-a-half divisions of fighting-age men. “That’s more divisions than were in the Allied assault wave on D-Day,” he added, calling the crossings “amphibious operations against our coast.”
The comparison is worse when the rest of the services are brought in. Labour’s small-boat total already sits 15,429 ahead of the Royal Navy and RAF combined, which together field 67,850 full-time personnel. And this is only the post-election slice. Under the Conservatives, around 128,000 people arrived by dinghy. Since records began in December 2018 the running total has blown past 200,000 – higher than the combined strength of the Army, Navy and RAF.
Writing in the Mail after more than 1,200 people crossed from Monday, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “It is utterly insane. And if it wasn’t clear before, the events of the past few days have proved beyond any reasonable doubt that both Border Force and the Home Office have completely lost control.”
He added: “Years ago, I warned the small boats crisis would define this era of British politics. Predictably, the chin-stroking commentariat declared I was exaggerating. Well, look where we are now.”
“Ordinary Britons rightly ask if successive governments cannot stop people from arriving illegally in broad daylight, let alone under cover of darkness without detection, then what exactly is the point of having a border?” Farage asked. His party wants the largest military operation in the Channel since the Second World War and a return of every illegal arrival to France.
Two boats this week reached British beaches without Border Force interception – one at Samphire Hoe between Dover and Folkestone, another near Folkestone the day before. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood ordered an “urgent review” and said even one uncontrolled landing is “one too many.” Education Secretary Lucy Powell then told GB News that “you can’t stop everything all of the time,” while insisting Mahmood was taking “swift action to find out what’s gone wrong here and make sure it doesn’t happen again.”
Border Force union official Lucy Moreton was less diplomatic. Undetected landings are “absolutely, definitely happening,” she said, with abandoned vessels and reports “all the way down to Falmouth.” “If we don’t look for it, we don’t know it’s happening. We don’t know it’s happening, we don’t have to deal with it.”
Labour’s first act in 2024 was to scrap the Rwanda deterrent. Shadow energy secretary Andrew Bowie said the latest numbers follow from that choice. “We’ve got a government that is oblivious to the scale of the problem we face in the Channel,” he said. “It’s not a surprise, frankly, because the very first thing this Labour government did was get rid of any sort of deterrent to prevent illegal migrants coming into this country.”
Former Home Office borders director Glyn Williams told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that “the consequences of a failing policy… are becoming more and more extreme,” and that “more extreme measures” may now have to be considered.
The official line is that crossings are down 42 percent this year and that summer 2026 was the quietest since 2020. That is the defence ministers reach for while dinghies still beach in Kent and Britain discusses paying France another billion pounds for the next small-boats deal. GB News presenter Patrick Christys called the week “full-on illegal migrant carnage.”
The people coming off those boats do not vanish. They are processed, housed and parked on the public. We have already covered what that looks like on the ground. In Piddington, Oxfordshire – 350 residents, 46 children, no shop, no pub – a Home Office paper for the old MoD depot discussed 3,510 “service users” against an official planning figure of 1,256 single adult males. Ten migrants for every local.
Migrants Placed In TINY Village Will Out Number Locals By TEN TO ONE
How is this real?
Similar dumps are lined up at Linton-on-Ouse, Barnham and Crowborough as hotels are emptied into former barracks.
The legal machine that then keeps them here is not a refugee system. It is a production line. A Home Office official who has handled thousands of cases put the genuine share at “at best 1 per cent.” Package stories, recycled police letters, staged nightclub photos, modern-slavery claims that cannot be disproved. Grant rates still run in the tens of thousands. Removals do not.
Proof: Britain’s Asylum System Is A Massive SCAM
They’re letting anyone into the country
Who helps keep the Channel route open is another story again. NGO networks on the French coast have spent years treating the crossing as a humanitarian project rather than a breach of an island nation’s border.
Migration Watch chairman Alp Mehmet urged “Military-age men are pouring into Britain across the Channel. Illegal Channel crossings are now a major political crisis, and pose a real and present threat to our national security.”
Almost 90 percent of those intercepted since 2018 have been male; two-thirds are aged 18 to 39. People-smuggling gangs have told reporters that Iran has used the route to move operatives in return for a “favour” once on British soil. In 2023, nineteen suspected terrorists linked to Islamic State and al-Shabaab were reported to have arrived the same way.
A country that cannot stop a dinghy in daylight does not have a border policy. It has a ferry service run by criminal gangs, underwritten by hotels, lawyers and a claims system that treats refusal as the hard option.
Labour inherited a failure and then dismantled the one deterrent it had. Burnham now inherits the same beaches, the same numbers, and an actual Army smaller than the cohort that has already washed up on his party’s watch.
HOLLAND
Netherlands Pushes To Scrap EU Gas Storage Mandate After $1.14 Billion Bill
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
The Netherlands considers that the current EU system of gas storage targets ahead of winter is inadequate and burdens governments that have to pay for meeting the EU-wide obligations.
The Dutch government has already spent almost $1.14 billion (1 billion euros) this summer season alone on building up inventories, while this task should fall mostly on the gas market participants, Climate Minister Stientje van Veldhoven said in a letter to Parliament cited by Bloomberg.
The Netherlands is a relatively small EU gas consumer, but it is a major natural gas hub and home to the EU’s benchmark gas trading futures market, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF).
The current EU rules on mandatory gas storage levels consider storage capacity rather than consumption, the Netherlands argues.
Moreover, this spring-summer filling season has been particularly difficult and very expensive for the EU member states as natural gas prices soared in the wake of the Iran war and the very few LNG cargoes that make it through the Strait of Hormuz.
The price spike and the concern about near-term supply have deepened the backwardation structure of European gas prices, discouraging holding supply for later deliveries. Backwardation is the market structure in which prompt contracts trade higher than those further out in time, signaling concerns about immediate supply.
Weeks ago, the Dutch gas network operator said the Netherlands would miss its target to fill natural gas storage sites ahead of the winter, in one of the first evidence-based signs that Europe may be struggling to have sufficient supply for a harsh winter.
Germany, the EU’s biggest economy, is considering expanding a key market incentive to encourage traders to raise gas storage levels ahead of the winter. The government is looking to use the existing market tool, the autumn tender for Long Term Options, or LTOs, on a larger scale.
Germany has the world’s fourth-largest natural gas storage capacity, but this capacity was only 57% full as of September 24, according to data by Gas Infrastructure Europe. That’s a historically low level, and Germany risks gas shortages this winter if it turns out to be colder than previous years, the country’s gas storage association, INES, warned earlier this month.
END
5.RUSSIA AND ISRAEL AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFIARS
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN/SATURDAY
Trump Rejects Iran 7-Day Ceasefire Plan, Likely To Renew Bombing After Midterms
Friday, Sep 25, 2026 – 10:00 PM
Summary
- Trump rejects Iran proposal: WSJ
- Tehran denes reports of ‘technical talks’ after it proposed 7-day roadmap to end the war and (eventually) restart nuclear talks.
- Hormuz reopening discussed in exchange for US concessions in NY, including lifting the blockade.
- Tehran seeks sanctions relief, declares will hold to conditions, including restored oil exports and access to frozen funds.
- US-Iran talks reportedly show progress, with Qatar helping bridge differences.
- Escalation risk remains: Iran threatens a broader response – to ‘spread war to Indian Ocean’ if attacked again.
Trump Rejects Iran’s 7-Day Ceasefire Proposal
That was fast–huge late Friday night bombshell via The Wall Street Journal:
President Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms, U.S. officials said.
Tehran’s proposal would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and resumed nuclear talks in return for the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, which is causing deep damage to the country’s economy. Trump says openly that Tehran is begging for a deal after the midterms that dismantles its nuclear program.
But privately Trump is skeptical Iran would meet his demands and has told his staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely, the officials said.
Where do we go from here? So much for oil prices being artificially kept down, as the entire Friday drop is set to be erased.
Trump is reportedly expected to resume bombing Iran after the midterm elections, WSJ says.
OR, is this a classic Trump ‘tough’ negotiating ploy? The hardliners in the IRGC are unlikely to play ball.
The Friday Afternoon Denial
Via state media Fars:
Axios and Al Jazeera’s claim about Iran-US talks denied, reports Fars; News regarding another round of talks is false, and claims technical experts from Iran were sent to NY to join the talks, is untrue
This was either the result of more premature or false Axios reporting, or else there’s a possible in strategy divergence between IRGC vs. presidential delegation in New York. More from Fars:
IRGC Spokesperson says we will not stop punishing the US until Iran’s seven conditions are met; our missiles are capable of destroying America’s multi-layered defenses, Fars reports
‘Technical Talks’
Are we back to headline ping-pong pushing down oil prices?
Latest: Iran-US negotiations in New York have moved beyond initial diplomatic contacts into a more detailed technical phase, with sources in Tehran describing the atmosphere as increasingly positive, CBS reports, citing Al Jazeera.
And an official Iranian caution, or possibly even brush off, in reaction… Tehran signaling it intends to stick by its original conditions:
Senior Iranian official says Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, no nuclear talks with US until Iran’s conditions are met, Reuters reports, citing sources; Iran will make no concessions on its nuclear program
AJ: A US official told Al Jazeera says Washington is in a strong position and controls the Strait of Hormuz, therefore we are not in a hurry to reach an agreement with Iran
For a rehash of what’s played out over the last 24 hours on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting:
- Iran’s proposed seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US drops its blockade is being discussed as an accelerated version of a previously discussed 60-day process, and would include urgent measures to get both countries back into direct negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.
- The key Iranian demands under discussion include sanctions relief, the lifting of restrictions on oil exports and access to frozen Iranian funds.
- The two sides also continue to discuss arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, including whether Iran and Oman could return to a form of joint management under an agreed framework involving regional countries and the United States, as well as arrangements governing the passage of US vessels.
- Despite the outstanding issues, sources in Tehran characterised the negotiations as making some progress, with talks continuing and Qatar working to bridge differences between the two sides.
Also, President Trump has just said he discussed the Iran conflict with China’s Xi.
And crude tumbles…
BUT…
Independent Iranian Journliast Ghaderi reiterates that the narrative presented by some US media is incomplete
7-Day Roadmap Proposed
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi has newly proposed to the US side a seven-day roadmap aimed at ending the war, while the top Iranian delegation is still in New York City engaged in deep diplomacy on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
Aragchi is said to be planning to stay through the weekend while waiting on a US response to the plan. So far it seems Tehran hasn’t backed down from its core conditions, and its roadmap proposal is said to closely parallel the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding that was signed by President Trump back in June, but which has since completely collapsed. The plan is new but is still being largely seen as just repackaged.
“Araghchi stressed that Iran was ready to begin putting the plan into effect as soon as Washington agreed to it,” Al Jazeera reports.
Interestingly, also last night Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told journalists, “We don’t want it to get to the midterm elections.” He added: “We wish Americans to return to the MoU before the midterms.” Here’s where things stand in terms of Iran’s position being represented in New York:
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz can reopen if certain conditions are met by the US and that it would be better to implement before the Midterms, according to a Sky reporter.
- IRGC spokesperson warned in the event of another attack, Iran’s method of defence will change including geography of the confrontation, the type of equipment and weapons used, and targets in defensive operations in line with new conditions.
This contradicted Trump’s words given to the UN General Assembly during his speech. He said “They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election.”
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly had in follow-up to Trump’s address said, “The President is courageously ensuring that such an evil country never possesses a nuclear weapon, which will make the entire world safer and more stable.”
Iran has said it will not be ‘bullied’ – but Pezeshkian appears to be offering something on the nuclear front alongside this seven-day roadmap overture, or at least according to a future timeline assuming a ceasefire is agreed to.
He explained in a Fox interview that in accord the framework of international law, Iran could give eventually up highly enriched uranium. But he was also fundamentally using the moment to highlight who is not a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty – Israel.
Pezeshkian further said it was up to the United States to choose when the war would end. “It’s America that must choose whether it wants to end this or not,“ Pezeshkian said in response to a question by Fox’s Bret Baier.
Tehran has meanwhile said it is ready to escalate, and even spread the war beyond the Persian Gulf region, into the Indian Ocean for example (where the UK-US have the Diego Garcia base).
END
IRAN/USA
Iran ‘Fully Prepared’ To Resume War, We Don’t Trust Trump: Iran FM
Sunday, Sep 27, 2026 – 03:45 PM
The two big weekend Iran war developments are 1) President Trump has rejected Tehran’s seven day ceasefire roadmap proposal, and reportedly plans to resume bombing Iran – likely after the November midterm elections; 2) the Iranian government announced Sunday its forces have struck 19 ships in the Strait of Hormuz over the past two nights, per Fars News Agency.
The Fars report indicated the Iranians hit 12 vessels Friday night and 7 more Saturday – though Western sources have been slow to report or confirm this, and the Pentagon has not initially commented.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has meanwhile once again emphasized in the wake of Trump’s rejection of the latest proposal that on the one hand Tehran stands ‘ready’ for renewed fighting and won’t back down – and on the other has not yet abandoned diplomacy.
“We are fully prepared for the war to be resumed. We stand firm in the face of any new aggression, even if it comes to a doomsday war,” Araghchi told NBC News Meet the Press on Sunday.
He was specifically asked about the Friday Wall Street Journal report which strongly suggested Trump is ready to resume bombing the Islamic Republic after the midterms.
But Araghchi offered the key caveat and opening: “At the same time, we stand ready for diplomacy. It is up to President Trump to choose,“ he said.
The top Iranian diplomat further make clear his country is not backing off its initial conditions to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz:
Our proposal is very clear. We are ready to open the strait if certain things are done by the U.S. And these certain things are not new, have not come from the space. These are our rights, that we want to be respected. First of all, we want to end this war of aggression. They started this war eight months ago with the hope that in two, three days, you know, they can win the war. It’s now eight months. And we want it to be ended. We want our money, our assets, which are illegally frozen, to be released. We want, you know, to be able to sell our oil. So we want certain things that the U.S. has already committed itself to in the previous, you know, deals.
The main conditions can be summarized as the end of the war on all fronts, the release of frozen assets and the end of the naval blockade.
The NBC show host tried to hold Araghchi down on Iran’s insistence that its funds be unfrozen and returned – which is proving a tall ask from a White House which has unleashed its ‘Economic D-Day’ campaign seeking to totally isolate Iran.
The interview transcript is quite illustrative of the main impasse:
KRISTEN WELKER: But Mr. Foreign Minister, the ambassador’s point was the United States is not going to unfreeze assets on the front end. It’s not going to lift sanctions on the front end. Is it possible to negotiate a new peace plan at this juncture? Or has diplomacy failed?
FOREIGN MINISTER ABBAS ARAGHCHI: Well, why aren’t they ready to release our money? It is our own money. It is not, you know, any other’s money.
KRISTEN WELKER: Because they want to see some actionable items from Iran, like opening the Strait of Hormuz, before they do that. Has diplomacy failed, Mr. Foreign Minister?
FOREIGN MINISTER ABBAS ARAGHCHI: Well, there is always hope for diplomacy. But to be honest with you, we have no reason to come back to diplomacy and engage with this administration once again, because of how they’ve behaved in the past two years. You know, in 2025 they offered negotiations…
And so clearly the situation is back to square one in terms of the stalemate that’s been on from the beginning, and has persisted for seven months, as Washington finds itself in yet another quagmire in the Middle East.
Regional analyst and editor of Amwaj.media, Mohammad Ali Shabani, concludes of weekend events: “The next phase of the war will likely revolve around destroying Iran’s economic infrastructure. The method is collective immiseration until desperate Iranians with nothing to lose will do the regime change.”
This of course sets the US on a trajectory of yet another ‘forever war’ in the region. Trump, it seems, may also opt for bombing in search of a ‘better deal’ – though this will simultaneously ensure a more hardline resistance will be entrenched in decision-making centers in Tehran.
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN /
/Iran Pushes Back On Trump’s Sanctions Relief Offer, Rejects Shift On Nuclear Enrichment
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 03:55 PM
Summary
- Trump signals Iran sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear concessions, triggering a sharp drop in oil prices.
- US-Iran talks may resume, but only indirectly, this week; however Tehran remains skeptical after Trump rejected its ceasefire proposal.
- Iran announced targeting 19 vessels over a 48 hour period this weekend and is threatening to escalate further.
- Oil prices fall: Brent below $100 and WTI below $95 as markets price in potential diplomacy.
- Iran’s economy feels the pressure, with the rial hitting a record low near 2.3 million per dollar.
* * *
State Media Denies Iran Agreed to Halt Enrichment
As expected, the Iranians are denying the earlier reports that it “agreed to halt enrichment” – which came through Saudi state sources (see below):
IRANIAN OFFICIAL SAYS IRAN’S POSITION ON THE NUCLEAR ISSUE HAS NOT CHANGED AND THAT NO DISCUSSIONS ARE CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE ON THE MATTER, ADDING THAT REPORTS OF IRAN’S FLEXIBILITY ON ITS NUCLEAR STANCE ARE INCORRECT – FARS NEWS
And via state PressTV, calling the reports false:
Crude Drops Further on Regional Media Claims
Crude drops further, stocks exploding, amid another bombshell headline which will more than likely be met with a swift Iranian denial:
END
Iran has agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions, reports [Saudi state] Al Hadath
ISRAEL TBN
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Terrorist from abduction of Noa Argamani, Avinatan Or on Oct. 7 killed in strike – IDF
Saher Nidal Saqr seen in video riding motorcycle that carried Argamani into captivity; separate strike last week revealed to have killed Hamas commander who held 9 other hostages
By Emanuel Fabian FollowToday, 4:13 pm
A screencapture from footage showing Saher Nidal Saqr (right) kidnapping Noa Argamani during the October 7, 2023, onslaught. (Israel Defense Forces)
A Palestinian terrorist who took part in abducting Noa Argamani and Avinatan Or during the October 7, 2023, onslaught was killed in an Israeli strike in the Gaza Strip, the military and Shin Bet announced Sunday.
A strike the day before in central Gaza’s Nuseirat targeted Saher Nidal Saqr, who the IDF said was affiliated with “global jihadist organizations” and invaded Israel on October 7, 2023.
Video of the abduction from the Nova music festival of Argamani and Or, who were a couple, became one of the most widely circulated pieces of footage from the massacre. Footage showed Saqr taking Argamani on a motorcycle to the Strip, as she desperately reached out to Or, who was being marched into captivity.
Argamani was rescued by the IDF in 2024 and Or was released from Gaza last year.
Saturday’s strike was carried out by the Israel Police’s elite Gideonim Unit 33, according to the statement.
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Saqr was involved in supplying weapons to Hamas during the war, and recently, he was advancing attacks on troops and Israeli civilians, “in cooperation with terrorist operatives from the military wings of the Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorist organizations, in systematic violation of the ceasefire agreement,” the military said.
The IDF said he was killed to “remove a threat.”
In addition, the IDF and Shin Bet said Sunday that a Hamas commander who held nine other Israeli hostages in captivity was killed in a strike in the Gaza Strip last week.
The Tuesday strike in northern Gaza killed Muhammad Hamad Muhammad Ghabain, who the IDF said participated in holding hostages Ziv Berman, Gali Berman, Eitan Mor, Liri Albag, Agam Berger, Matan Angrest, Omri Miran, Keith Siegel and Alon Ohel in captivity.
Recently, Ghabain was involved in advancing attacks against Israeli troops and civilians, restoring Hamas capabilities, “in systematic violation of the ceasefire,” the IDF said, adding that he was killed to “remove the threat he posed.”
Earlier this year, the IDF said it killed Ahmed Hussein Mohammed Kafina, a top Hamas commander who was also involved in abducting Argamani and Or.
In other developments, the IDF published drone footage showing a Palestinian child transporting a weapon in the central Gaza Strip.
The IDF said troops had spotted a terror operative “using a child to transport weapons into a civilian home.”
“The terrorist exploited the child and used him as a human shield to transport weapons so that the IDF would not attack and thwart their transfer,” the military claimed.
The IDF did not say when the video was taken.
The IDF has repeatedly accused Hamas of using the civilian population in Gaza as a shield during the war, which began on October 7, 2023, with the Hamas-led invasion of southern Israel. The attack killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, including 360 at the Nova music festival.
Last month, the IDF and Shin Bet acknowledged that a special operation has been established with a dedicated unit to hunt down and kill every single Palestinian terrorist involved in the October 7, 2023, invasion and massacre.
END
SAUDI ARABIA/
Saudi Arabia Restarts Critical Hormuz Bypass Pipeline
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 08:15 AM
Saudi Arabia has resumed oil exports through its critical East-West pipeline, restoring access to Red Sea loading facilities that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reports. The restart coincides with Kpler data from late last week showing Hormuz oil flows have recovered to about two-thirds of prewar levels, suggesting a recovery in Gulf energy flows and an erosion of Tehran’s leverage.
Overseas shipments have restarted, Bloomberg reported, citing a person with direct knowledge of the operation. Saudi Aramco began testing the pipeline and rebuilding pressure last week, aiming to resume meaningful flows by the weekend.
In a separate report last Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Aramco was working quickly to repair the damaged section of the pipeline after a drone attack destroyed a pumping station.
A successful restart of the pipeline, which can carry 7 million barrels of crude per day to Yanbu on the Red Sea while bypassing the Hormuz chokepoint, would likely provide welcome relief for Europe, which had crude cargoes for this month canceled because of the disruptions. The Saudis have already indicated a near-term resumption of crude loadings for Asian buyers.
With the East-West pipeline set to ramp up and the Saudis beginning to export crude from the Red Sea once again, independent oil research firm Commodity Context cited Kpler data over the weekend showing that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, driven by a surge in Saudi exports.
On the diplomatic side, President Trump told reporters on the White House lawn over the weekend that he had rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and was open to resuming attacks on the Islamic Republic after the midterms.
The key question is: What happens to Iran’s oil export hub, Kharg Island, after the midterms?
END
IRAN
Ayatollah Vows To Expel ‘Enemy’ From Arabian Sea As Trump Touts Talks To Continue This Week
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 08:45 AM
After a weekend which saw President Trump reject an Iranian proposal for a 7-day ceasefire and roadmap to peace, and Tehran in turn targeting 19 ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the two sides once again have their fingers on the trigger.
Iran has said while it remains open to diplomacy, it is ‘fully prepared’ to resume the full-scale war with Washington, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday. On Monday, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei – who still hasn’t been seen since the war’s start and after his father’s assassination – has proclaimed his military has driven the ‘enemy’ from waters off southern Iran to the Arabian Sea.
“Having suffered painful blows from our valiant combatants and the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz, they [the enemy] dare not venture beyond the Arabian Sea,” Khamenei said in a new message. He warned that war could soon come to the Arabian Sea as well.
His words were issued on the annual remembrance of the Iran-Iraq War, as well as the anniversary of Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2024.
“Whenever they have risked doing so they have only inflicted harm upon themselves, and the time is fast approaching when the Arabian Sea, too, will be cleared of their presence,” Khamenei’s message added. This marks an extension of threats from Iranian security officials last week which warned that war is coming to the Indian Ocean more broadly.
However, the reality also is that oil exports from the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman have been climbing over the past week. But renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces are trying to hinder this uptick in transit, is looking more and more likely.
This as diplomacy is obviously stalled. Bloomberg observes, “Iran and the US appeared far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it’s sticking to a proposal US President Donald Trump has rejected.” And, “In futures, oil rose as Iran and the US appeared far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it’s sticking to a proposal that US President Donald Trump has rejected.”
Like clockwork, anonymous diplomatic officials are once again in pre-market Monday morning hours pushing a “talks” narrative. According to more latest from Bloomberg:
Mediators expected to hold separate talks with US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi and Qatari mediators remaining in the US, according to sources. Talks to focus on amended version of 7-day proposal Iran presented on UNGA sidelines.
Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran said any reopening remains contingent on its conditions being met and its UN delegation reportedly has no plans for talks with the US. Trump nonetheless expects negotiations to resume this week, with the Iranian President also supporting talks.
And the Wall Street Journal has a parallel Monday morning story: “Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Tehran’s truce proposal, in a race to stop the conflict from escalating back into all-out war,” the publication says. On the headlines:
- Brent Dec fell from USD 100.70/bbl to around USD 99.60/bbl.
- WTI Nov dipped from USD 96/bbl to USD 94.90/bbl.
Trump in new comments to Axios:
“I expect more talks with Iran (this week),” Trump told Axios in a phone interview. “They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand.”
Araghchi apparently stayed in New York through the weekend following his attendance of the UN General Assembly, with President Pesheshkian having departed back to Iran.
Ready for “apocalyptic war” if it comes to that…
Meanwhile the US economic war is continuing to bite, with Iran’s currency has hitting another historic low against the US dollar, exacerbated by severe inflation and the Trump/Bessent ‘Economic D-Day’ and ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ campaigns which seek to strangle the country. Financial trackers note that the free market exchange rate has escalated to 2.3 million rials per US dollar.
Weekend & Overnight Developments
via Newsquawk
- US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately because it is losing so badly.
- US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal, while he stated the conditions Iran wants are something the US may have agreed to around a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand, according to Axios.
- US President Trump said that as soon as the Iran war is over, which is soon, oil will drop, while he stated that they took out a record oil amount from Hormuz on Saturday night. Trump also stated that they will win against Iran in military and economic warfare, while he didn’t want to say regarding striking Iran before the Midterms and noted that Iran inflation was at 318%.
- US President Trump told Chinese President Xi during the summit to stop supporting Iran, according to Axios on Friday, citing US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue.
- Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they have seen the initial response from US President Trump to the 7-day ceasefire proposal, but are waiting to receive the official response via mediators, while he added that only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. Araghchi also stated that Iran’s conditions are clear and that any move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war and that they came to forge peace, while he added that Iran remains steadfast in the face of any aggression even if it comes to an apocalyptic war, but is at the same time, ready for real diplomacy.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said regional states can safeguard their own security, and he denied Iran’s direct involvement in Yemen, describing the situation as unrelated to Iran, but stated that Iran is ready to help resolve the conflict and urged Houthis and Saudi Arabia to enter talks instead of escalating.
- IRGC spokesman said not only is the Strait of Hormuz not open, but it is a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy against US submersibles.
- Iran army spokesman said Iran’s armed forces are prepared for any renewed US attacks after US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran.
- Local sources reported that a sea cruiser fired at a violating vessel in an unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
- Saudi authorities suspended in-person classes in Riyadh for a week on Sunday, following reports the day before that Saudi air defences said they intercepted Houthi drones headed toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran remains ready for dialogue despite being attacked during previous talks, but pressure and attacks will not force Iran to surrender.
- Source said Iran is prepared to compromise on its nuclear programme but wants guarantees Israel will not attack again after a US deal, N12 reported.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Is Putin Caught In An “Escalation Trap”? The Long War In Eastern Europe
Sunday, Sep 27, 2026 – 07:00 AM
Authored by Larry Johnson via Sonar21.com
Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism has flagged a recent interview that Professor Robert Pape did with Mario Nawfal. During the interview, Pape argued that Vladimir Putin is caught in an “escalation trap.” In his telling, Russia launched a preventive war in February 2022 to seize Kyiv and roughly 60 percent of Ukraine. That plan collapsed, and the fallback, betting that NATO would break, is now producing the European counterbalancing coalition Moscow most feared. It is a tidy theory. It also rests on a premise about Russian intentions that the record does not support, and once that premise goes, the trap goes with it.
What the force tells you about the objective
Start with arithmetic, the kind any planner of military operations does before anything else. Russia invaded with roughly 150,000 to 190,000 troops, including separatist forces. The standard rule of thumb for occupying a hostile population, from James Quinlivan’s RAND work, is about 20 troops per 1,000 inhabitants. For a country of more than 40 million, even occupying 60 percent of the territory would require several hundred thousand troops, several times what Russia sent. Moscow’s General Staff can do this arithmetic. A force that size is a coercive instrument, not an occupation army.
The pattern of the operation fits coercion. Russian forces approached Kyiv from the north but never attempted to assault or encircle a city of three million. The pressure was aimed at the government, not at taking the capital block by block. Talks began within days, in Belarus on February 28, and moved to Istanbul in March. Pape’s supporters point to the airborne assault on Hostomel as proof of a plan to seize the capital. But a failed coup de main against an airfield is not evidence of an intent to occupy 60 percent of a country.
Istanbul: the objective was achieved
The strongest evidence against Pape is that the coercion worked. By the end of March 2022, meetings in Belarus and Turkey, together with video conferences, had produced the Istanbul Communiqué, a framework for a settlement. Ukraine accepted permanent neutrality in exchange for security guarantees from the United States and its allies, with Russia also as a guarantor. Russia, for its part, agreed to a process to settle the Crimea dispute diplomatically.
That was the core of what Moscow wanted, and the Ukrainian side confirmed it. David Arakhamia, who led Ukraine’s delegation, later said Russia was prepared to end the war if Ukraine accepted Finland-style neutrality and committed not to join NATO. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed to me, Judge Napolitano and Mario Nawfal directly that the talks produced a tentative agreement, and that its terms were brought to the table by the Ukrainian delegation, not imposed by Moscow.
As a gesture of goodwill, Moscow withdrew its forces from north of Kyiv. Western commentary treats that as a retreat forced by battlefield failure. It is at least as consistent with the claim that the pressure had served its purpose.
How the deal died
Then the politics changed. Boris Johnson arrived unannounced in Kyiv on April 9, 2022, and according to Arakhamia told the Ukrainians not to sign anything with Russia and to “just fight.” Two days earlier, Lavrov had already complained publicly that Ukraine’s new draft departed sharply from the key provisions agreed at Istanbul on March 29. Washington and London had decided Russia was weaker than they had thought and that it could be bled. Ukraine walked away.
This is the point Pape’s framework cannot absorb. If Russia’s goal was a neutral Ukraine obtained through negotiation, the war did not go on because Moscow’s plan failed. It went on because Russia’s adversaries rejected the settlement.
No plan B, but a fast pivot and a new army
With hindsight, Russia clearly had not prepared a plan B for Ukraine walking away. That was a real planning failure. But the Russian military adjusted quickly. It concentrated on the Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea, and the fall of Mariupol in May gave it the first major result of that phase.
The bigger adjustment came in September 2022. After a large number of contract soldiers left the army in August and the Kharkiv counteroffensive exposed how thin Russian lines were, Putin ordered the mobilization of 300,000 reservists. That was the start, not the end, of Russia’s response. From that point Moscow set about building a much larger army, as the Russian officers I have interviewed have described in detail, including Gen. Apti Alaudinov, Gen. Evgeny Buzhinsky, Gen. Andrei Gurulev and Col. Eduard Basurin.
The mobilization was followed by a sustained recruitment campaign and an expanded annual draft. By Medvedev’s count, more than 452,000 men signed military contracts in 2023. Roughly 450,000 followed in 2024, and more than 422,000 in 2025. Year after year, Russia has added at least 350,000 new soldiers. Putin’s decrees tell the same story: authorized military strength rose from about 1.15 million in 2022 to 1.32 million in December 2023, then to 1.5 million effective December 2024. By 2026, according to my sources, Russia’s army had reached that 1.5 million active-duty figure.
That is not the behavior of a state that expected a quick war and is now improvising its way out of a trap. It is the behavior of a state that decided in the autumn of 2022 to fight a long war, and built the force to do it.
Why the timeline matters
The goals never changed. Putin announced them on February 24, 2022: the demilitarization and “denazification” of Ukraine. What changed after Istanbul was the method, from coercion toward a negotiated settlement to attrition. Moscow has never attached a timeline to that effort.
Pape’s trap depends on the assumption that Russia needed a quick victory and is now stuck with worse and worse options. An attrition strategy with no deadline, backed by an army that has grown every year since 2022, is not a trap. It is a choice. Moscow’s theory of victory since late 2022 has been to exhaust Ukraine’s manpower and the West’s willingness to supply it, not to break NATO by a specific date. Four and a half years later, Russian forces are still advancing, and Ukraine’s reserve and mobilization problems are structural, not temporary.
Pape’s answer is European counterbalancing, backed by an EU economy he puts at about eight times Russia’s. That ratio only holds at market exchange rates, which badly understate what Russia’s economy can actually produce. On purchasing power parity, the measure that matters in a war of production, Russia is the fourth largest economy in the world: about $6.9 trillion in 2024 by the World Bank’s count, behind only China, the United States and India, and ahead of Japan and Germany. The EU as a bloc is still larger, but on that basis the gap is roughly half of Pape’s figure.
GDP understates Russia’s position in another way. Russia has a resource base that Europe cannot match, from oil, gas and coal to metals and fertilizer, and a defense-industrial base that Europe has let wither for thirty years.
Artillery shells, the basic currency of this war, show what that means in practice. Russia produced an estimated 400,000 122mm and 152mm artillery rounds in 2022. By 2025, estimates put its annual output at about 4.2 million. A 2026 Estonian intelligence report goes further, estimating that Russian factories produced about seven million artillery, mortar, tank and rocket rounds in 2025. On top of that, Russia has received millions of rounds from North Korea.
Europe started from almost nothing. At the beginning of 2024, according to Rheinmetall’s own internal estimate, all Western European manufacturers together could produce about 550,000 shells a year. NATO’s own assessment was that Russia produced as much ammunition in the first three months of 2024 as the entire alliance did in a year. The EU pledged to reach a capacity of two million 155mm shells a year by the end of 2025, a target, not proven output. Even adding US production, which is aiming for about 100,000 rounds a month in 2026, allied programs might yield about three million shells this year, still less than Russia’s estimated output in 2025.
That is the real measure of the balance Pape is counting on. A bloc whose economy is several times Russia’s is still being outproduced in the one commodity that decides an attrition war. Balance-of-power theory may be right that Europe will eventually arm itself. It says nothing about whether that happens in time to change the outcome in Ukraine.
Russia sent a force too small to occupy most of Ukraine, negotiated within days, and reached a framework agreement within five weeks. When the West persuaded Kyiv to walk away, Russia shifted to an open-ended war of attrition and spent four years building an army to fight it. That is not a state trapped by the failure of a plan to conquer 60 percent of a country. It is a state that tried coercion first, adapted when it failed, and is fighting on its own timeline.
END
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
ROBERT H…
inflation issues
Ocean freight costs resulting from the Iran war are up 4x over prewar prices
o Marine bunker fuel price increased right along with other fuels
o War risk insurance for vessels operating in the middle east is raising costs to the
whole industry that need to be recouped
o Panama Canal disruptions due to El Niño. They are limiting the draft of boats
transiting the canal, meaning less containers per ship, along with a reduction of
the number of ships being allowed through. East coast shipments from Asia all
come via the canal.
Land based delivery costs have also spiked, with diesel reaching previously unknown
highs. This affects everything delivered by truck and train. Fedex has already announced
a price hike of 5.9% on average for parcel delivery starting in January. Other companies
like Amazon are likely facing the same pressures and will move to recoup as well. As a
fun bonus, because the entire delivery industry is going to raise rates, there will be little
to difference in rates among shippers, even post recovery. Rates are unlikely to return
to previous levels once the crisis is over as the delivery industry uses this event to create
a new base price (see covid).
Tariffs are still an issue. Electronics supply chains rely heavily on China and other Asian
manufacturing centers. We have imposed new tariffs on goods from pretty much every
trading partner in 2026, including China. The current US and China trade war truce has
been extended through Jan 2027 but tariff policy is too volatile to be optimistic.
Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia which are other electronics mfg countries are still subject to
tariffs. If there is a swing in the political makeup of congress come November we may
expect some relief.
The Chinese Yuan has been trending upwards vs the USD for the last year (+7% since last
sept) leading to higher relative costs for Chinese made goods.
Copper, aluminum and other input material costs are quite high, even inexpensive items
such as cables will probably be affected.
One of the biggest factors we are already seeing is Semiconductor and electronic
component shortages. RAM will be scarce through 2027. With RAM mfg exiting the
consumer market and full production capacity for 2027 having been purchased already
there just won’t be enough to go around. Also mature node semiconductors used for
power management components are also tight. These components are in everything we
buy: docks, monitors, webcams, headsets, chargers and UPS (new info to me)
Product generation/ more expensive model replacements. As these trends continue to
raise prices, people will be looking for cheaper alternatives, these are the products I am
currently sourcing from Amazon etc. Much of that product is stock left over from the
before times. Once they all get bought up, we are going to be forced to find new, more
expensive products
Expensive input costs break supply and demand. Normally prices will come down as
people stop buying high priced products. Evidence shows that things like monitors are
already at the floor with no margin left to reduce.
END
COVID VACCINE INJURY REPORT: MARK CRISPIN MILLER
CANCER: Drummer John Hoff (The Color Fred), rocker Ryan Hamilton, singer Amanda Somerville, singer Indra Dunis (Peaking Lights), [UK:] sportscaster Rebecca Charlton and rocker Gillian Gilbert
Country singer Travis Yee has “life-threatening health issue”; GA: footie Elvin Mendy, 19, undergoes angiography after collapse on bus; SA: footie Hanro Liebenberg’s newborn suffers cardiac arrest
| Mark Crispin MillerSep 25 |  |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
Celebs
UNITED STATES
Beloved rock musician has stage 4 cancer: ‘Google this stuff, the odds aren’t great’
September 19, 2026
John Hoff, the drummer for the popular rock band The Color Fred, took to social media this week to let fans know that he is battling stage 4 cancer. “Hey everybody, just wanted to give a quick update with all this cancer stuff,” the Abington, Pennsylvania native said in a video that he shared to Facebook. “I have stage 4 melanoma, which just kind of popped up about a month ago. I woke up with a swollen armpit and my lymph nodes were pretty huge.” Hoff said it felt like he had a “water balloon in the armpit.” He said he went to an urgent care center and was told he needed to go to the ER for an ultrasound. “So I got an ultrasound there at the Philly VA,” he said. “They said it was the lymph nodes, and sent me to a cancer doctor. They told me I had lymphoma, which sucked, but it’s a more beatable cancer than melanoma. But eventually we found out that it’s melanoma, and what makes it stage 4 is the fact that it’s spread to my lung, my gallbladder, my left foot, and to over 20 different lymph nodes at this point.” Hoff said he is slated to begin two different immunotherapy treatments this week. “You know if you Google this stuff, the odds aren’t great, but I’m going to beat it,” he said. “It’s scary but got to beat it. That’s it.” Hoff added that his doctors have told him they believe the immunotherapies have about a 70 percent chance of working for him. “Being younger, 39 is young for cancer patients,” he said. “I’m nervous about it. It’s scary. Got to kick this things ass so I can watch my little girl.” A GoFundMe set up by Hoff’s sister, Heather Elmore, has raised more than $38,000. It notes that Hoff is an Air Force veteran and has a young daughter, Iris, who is 3.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Researcher’s note – VA urging veterans, staff to get latest COVID-19 vaccine [sic] booster: https://www.militarytimes.com/veterans/2023/09/18/va-urging-veterans-staff-to-get-latest-covid-19-vaccine-booster/
Beloved rock singer’s fans praying after he reveals cancer diagnosis: ‘Stay strong’
September 19, 2026
Fans of popular rock singer Ryan Hamilton are sending prayers his way after he shared several posts from a hospital this week while revealing some scary news. The singer first shared a post on Sept. 15 from a hospital bed. “Friends, I have cancer,” he wrote. “THANK YOU for all the kind words & support. I love you all. That feels important to say … I love you. “I will update everyone when I know more,” he added. “But as of now, I will be kept in the hospital ICU for the next several days.” He returned to social media on Thursday with another photo from a hospital bed. “Update & prayer request: Still in ICU,” he wrote. “Waiting on the final test/biopsy results, which will (obviously) determine what the rest of my life will look like. Should know today or tomorrow. Please pray for a result that means I can live a long life for Della. Can ask you all to pray for that. Cancer at 45. Can’t believe it.” Hamilton stepped away from music in 2024 after he found his wife suffering from a miscarriage on their bathroom floor. The Texas native has since devoted much of his attention to activism around abortion rights because his wife was denied surgical care and sent home by multiple hospitals.
Symphonic metal vocalist Amanda Somerville diagnosed with “malignant and aggressive brain tumour”
September 19, 2026
Symphonic metal star Amanda Somerville has been diagnosed with a “malignant and aggressive brain tumour“ her family have revealed. Somerville [47] is an American singer and vocal coach who made her name working with a string of metal bands including Epica, Avantasia, Kamelot, Trillium, After Forever and others. Her husband, After Forever guitarist Sander Gommans, says in a statement posted to social media: “I have some very sad news to share. The love of my life, mother of my three daughters and my beautiful wife Amanda Somerville, has a malignant and aggressive brain tumour. We’re shocked, devastated and I can’t describe the challenges we’re facing as a family right now. We’re very grateful with the help we’re getting from family and friends.”
A GoFundMe has been launched for the California-born musician who’s due to begin six weeks of chemotherapy and radiation treatment
September 15, 2026
Indra Dunis, one half of electronic duo Peaking Lights, has been diagnosed with Stage 3 colorectal cancer. According to a GoFundMe launched by her partner and bandmate Aaron Coyes yesterday, September 14th, Dunis collapsed from severe internal bleeding on August 1st while in Madison, Wisconsin, where she had been caring for her mother who died from cancer on May 26th. Dunis was subsequently hospitalised and underwent emergency treatment before returning to California. She was admitted to Cottage Hospital in Santa Barbara shortly afterwards for further tests, scans and assessments. Doctors have since determined that the cancer is operable and have outlined a treatment plan involving six weeks of combined chemotherapy and radiation, followed by four months of intravenous chemotherapy. Surgery may be required depending on the outcome of treatment. The GoFundMe is seeking financial support for medical co-pays, travel and integrative care, as well as counselling for the couple’s two teenage children. It also notes that Dunis’s recently opened shop, LILIJA, has been affected by the situation.
No age reported.
Country music singer reveals ‘life-threatening’ health issue with hospital pic
September 15, 2026
Country music singer Travis Yee checked in late Monday night with a photo from his hospital bed and a concerning tale about why he was there. “I want to share something that happened with my health over the past few weeks that became a lot more serious, and honestly, life-threatening, this past weekend,” he wrote on Facebook. “I won’t get too deep into the medical details because, honestly, some of it still sounds like something I’d hear on an episode of Grey’s Anatomy and pretend I understood,” he wrote. Yee then explained that he began to have gastrointestinal issues several weeks ago and went to urgent care twice. “Nothing that seemed like a huge deal,” he wrote. “Then about a week ago, things took a pretty dramatic turn. I started losing roughly 3-4 ounces of blood every evening when I went to the bathroom. And because apparently I enjoy making questionable decisions, I initially thought, ‘Well, it stops afterward, so I’m probably fine.’ Spoiler alert: I was not fine.” Yee said that Friday marked the fifth consecutive evening of bleeding, and the bleeding did not stop that day. “Within about 30 minutes, I lost roughly 20 ounces of blood and passed around 25 blood clots,” he wrote. “I’m not exaggerating those numbers. The weird part was that I didn’t initially feel dizzy, nauseous, or particularly sick. But since the bleeding wasn’t stopping, I finally decided I needed to go to the emergency room.” Yee said he drove himself to the hospital where he had “another episode of significant bleeding: He said he also became nauseous and fainted several times in the emergency room.” The singer said that a CT scan revealed “internal tears and bleeding involving some blood vessels.” “After that I was taken into surgery,” he wrote. “The surgery was performed through my groin area, and I’ll spare you most of the details because some things are better left between me, my doctors, and whatever dignity I have left.” Yee said doctors performed a colonoscopy and found an ulceration that appeared to be causing the bleeding. They also took biopsies. “And now I’m finally home,” he wrote. “I’m doing okay. I have to take it easy for a while, and there are still a few areas that need to heal, including where the surgery was performed. Yee added that he was grateful to his doctors and nurses for saving his life. Yee, 41, is known online as the “Asian Country Singer,” and he promotes it on his website. He rose to fame by covering country songs on TikTok and also appeared on Fox’s “I Can See Your Voice.”
UNITED KINGDOM
Channel 5 star diagnosed with cancer in ‘hardest year of my life’
September 19, 2026
Channel 5 sports presenter Rebecca Charlton has revealed her battle with breast cancer, after showing “no symptoms”. In a social media post, she revealed: “This isn’t the post I ever expected to write, but as I celebrate returning to the job and life I love, I’ve decided now is the right time to talk about the toughest 12 months of my life. During the Tour de France Femmes Avec Zwift last summer I was diagnosed with breast cancer & discovered it had already spread to my lymph nodes. Nothing could have prepared me for that moment, walking into a room to find 3 people, asking me to sit down and the blur of words that followed, including chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery and knowing that life would never be the same again. I had no signs, no symptoms, looked and felt happy and healthy when I discovered a swollen gland under my arm, while breastfeeding my newborn baby, which was my only alarm bell. I had a clear mammogram, ultrasound and examination. They took a biopsy as a ‘precaution’ and thank goodness they did. Everyone said it would be fine, until it wasn’t,” she explained. “I’ve spent the darkest days of my life in a chemo unit, losing my hair, many, many days spent in hospitals in chronic pain, with drugs being pumped into my arm but I have also found humour and joy, smiled and laughed and remained positive while completing chemo, radio and two major surgeries, with my truly brilliant surgeon.”
No age reported.
New Order’s Gillian Gilbert Reveals Cancer Diagnosis
September 15, 2026
New Order’s Gillian Gilbert [65] has revealed she’s living with cancer. The band’s longtime keyboardist shared a statement today with the intent to, in her words, “gently clarify a misunderstanding” resulting from a recent Rolling Stone interview with her bandmate and husband, Stephen Morris. Responding to a question about whether he would attend New Order’s Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction in November, Morris said, “I’ve got a bit of a health problem at the minute, which precludes leaving the country for any length of time.” “Thankfully [Stephen] is well,” Gilbert wrote. “It is in fact me, who like many other people, is living with cancer.”
GAMBIA
Istanbulspor midfielder Elvin Mendy undergoes angiography after falling ill on team bus
September 21, 2026
Istanbulspor’s 19-year-old Gambian footballer Elvin Mendy underwent angiography after experiencing chest pain and shortness of breath following the club’s match against Manisa FK, with medical tests showing no problems in his heart vessels, the club said. Mendy was taken to hospital after becoming unwell while travelling back to Istanbul on the team bus. Istanbulspor said the young midfielder was in good condition and remained under medical observation while doctors carried out further checks.
SOUTH AFRICA
South African star reveals horrific family emergency that forced him off against All Blacks
September 20, 2026
The reason behind Hanro Liebenberg’s sudden withdrawal during the Bulls’ clash with the All Blacks has been revealed, with the South African forward rushing to hospital after his newborn daughter suffered a cardiac arrest. Liebenberg started the match at Loftus Versfeld last month but was unexpectedly replaced after just 30 minutes, with the All Blacks eventually running out 50-19 winners. At the time, however, the 30-year-old was dealing with a situation far more important than anything happening on the pitch. Bulls management had received an urgent message informing Liebenberg that his baby daughter Liviah’s heart had stopped and that he needed to get to hospital. Liviah had been born less than two weeks earlier with an interrupted aortic arch and two holes in her heart. She underwent open-heart surgery on the Monday before the game and remained in a fragile condition in the days that followed.Liebenberg, who returned to South Africa this year following seven seasons in England with Leicester Tigers, has now spoken about the terrifying experience. “She went in for open-heart surgery that Monday before the match,” Liebenberg told Rapport. “She was up and down health-wise the whole week, because that kind of surgery places enormous stress on a baby. Her little heart had stopped completly
END
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Hormuz Oil Flows Rebound To Two-Thirds Prewar Level As Iran’s Grip Erodes, Attacks 19 Ships
Sunday, Sep 27, 2026 – 08:45 AM
Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based oil analyst and the founder of Commodity Context, an independent oil market research firm, wrote on X this weekend that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, driven by a surge in Saudi exports. This suggests that Tehran’s leverage over the critical maritime chokepoint has eroded.
“Hormuz oil flows can’t possibly be above 13 MMbpd bc crude is over $100,” Johnston wrote in the post on Saturday, citing Kpler data.
He added, “Brother, if you had told an oil analyst in January that Hormuz flows were still down 7 MMbpd after >200 days of war, with the East-West pipeline hobbled, and oil was ONLY $100 they’d have looked at you like.”
Saudi Arabia is driving the recovery. The kingdom’s crude exports averaged 5.28 million barrels a day during September’s first 23 days, the strongest pace since the conflict began, according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data. About 3.4 million barrels a day were loaded at Gulf ports, reversing the near-total retreat from those terminals earlier in the war.
Courtesy of Commodity Context …
“Hormuz is no longer behaving like a chokepoint under effective Iranian control. Hormuz oil flows are now above 13.5 mb/d on a 7-day average,” energy analyst Art Berman wrote on X, quoting Johnston’s post.
Berman said, “The biggest increase is Saudi Arabia’s Gulf loading surge. That changes the strategic picture. Iran can still attack ships, raise insurance costs and make the strait dangerous. But danger is not the same as control. The more oil that clears Hormuz, the more Iran’s leverage shifts from blocking flows to merely imposing costs.”
Doha-based QNB Financial Services wrote in a note to clients earlier today that “Qatar has ramped up liquefied natural gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to the highest in more than two months, a sign it’s becoming more comfortable moving ships through the waterway.”
Hostilities in the narrow strait continued for a second night, according to Bloomberg, citing reports from the semi-official Fars news agency that Iranian armed forces had targeted 19 ships attempting to use authorized routes in the waterway over the preceding 48 hours.
On Saturday morning, President Trump told reporters on the White House lawn that he had rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and was open to resuming attacks on the Islamic Republic after the midterms.
By Sunday morning, Bloomberg reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was still waiting for a definitive US response through mediators Qatar and Pakistan, despite Trump’s public dismissal of the seven-day plan.
The one major escalation risk that may emerge after the midterms is a renewed US bombing campaign, potentially accompanied by cyber operations against Iranian energy infrastructure such as Kharg Island. For energy markets already strained by a global refining crisis, the post-election period warrants close attention
END
Crude Plummets As Trump Dangles Iran Sanctions Relief In Surprise Nuclear Deal Hint
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 12:33 PM
Oil Tumbles on the Unexpected: Trump Signals Sanctions Relief (…TACO Monday)
Al Jazeera is reporting that President Trump is signaling he’d be open to providing Iran with sanctions relief in return for nuclear concessions – though it remains that Tehran has throughout the war insisted that a ceasefire deal must be achieved first, before the nuclear file is dealt with.
US official says US President Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue, reports Al Jazeera
And…
CNN and Axios also run US offiicial comments (echoing Al Jazeera) that US President Trump is willing to grant Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in exchange for real progress on the nuclear issue.
Crude big plummet…
Note via Newsquawk: Oil sees downside, with slight Dollar pressure, while Treasuries, stocks, and spot gold see upside amid reports that Trump is ready to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear file.
Ayatollah New Threat
After a weekend which saw President Trump reject an Iranian proposal for a 7-day ceasefire and roadmap to peace, and Tehran in turn targeting 19 ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the two sides once again have their fingers on the trigger.
Iran has said while it remains open to diplomacy, it is ‘fully prepared’ to resume the full-scale war with Washington, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday. On Monday, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei – who still hasn’t been seen since the war’s start and after his father’s assassination – has proclaimed his military has driven the ‘enemy’ from waters off southern Iran to the Arabian Sea.
“Having suffered painful blows from our valiant combatants and the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz, they [the enemy] dare not venture beyond the Arabian Sea,” Khamenei said in a new message. He warned that war could soon come to the Arabian Sea as well.
His words were issued on the annual remembrance of the Iran-Iraq War, as well as the anniversary of Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2024.
“Whenever they have risked doing so they have only inflicted harm upon themselves, and the time is fast approaching when the Arabian Sea, too, will be cleared of their presence,” Khamenei’s message added. This marks an extension of threats from Iranian security officials last week which warned that war is coming to the Indian Ocean more broadly.
However, the reality also is that oil exports from the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman have been climbing over the past week. But renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces are trying to hinder this uptick in transit, is looking more and more likely.
This as diplomacy is obviously stalled. Bloomberg observes, “Iran and the US appeared far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it’s sticking to a proposal US President Donald Trump has rejected.” And, “In futures, oil rose as Iran and the US appeared far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it’s sticking to a proposal that US President Donald Trump has rejected.”
Return to ‘Talks’ Narrative
Like clockwork, anonymous diplomatic officials are once again in pre-market Monday morning hours pushing a “talks” narrative. According to more latest from Bloomberg:
Mediators expected to hold separate talks with US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi and Qatari mediators remaining in the US, according to sources. Talks to focus on amended version of 7-day proposal Iran presented on UNGA sidelines.
Over the weekend, Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran said any reopening remains contingent on its conditions being met and its UN delegation reportedly has no plans for talks with the US. Trump nonetheless expects negotiations to resume this week, with the Iranian President also supporting talks.
And the Wall Street Journal has a parallel Monday morning story: “Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Tehran’s truce proposal, in a race to stop the conflict from escalating back into all-out war,” the publication says. On the headlines:
- Brent Dec fell from USD 100.70/bbl to around USD 99.60/bbl.
- WTI Nov dipped from USD 96/bbl to USD 94.90/bbl.
Trump in new comments to Axios:
“I expect more talks with Iran (this week),” Trump told Axios in a phone interview. “They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand.”
Araghchi apparently stayed in New York through the weekend following his attendance of the UN General Assembly, with President Pesheshkian having departed back to Iran.
Ready for “apocalyptic war” if it comes to that…
Meanwhile the US economic war is continuing to bite, with Iran’s currency has hitting another historic low against the US dollar, exacerbated by severe inflation and the Trump/Bessent ‘Economic D-Day’ and ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ campaigns which seek to strangle the country. Financial trackers note that the free market exchange rate has escalated to 2.3 million rials per US dollar.
Weekend & Overnight Developments
via Newsquawk
- US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately because it is losing so badly.
- US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal, while he stated the conditions Iran wants are something the US may have agreed to around a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand, according to Axios.
- US President Trump said that as soon as the Iran war is over, which is soon, oil will drop, while he stated that they took out a record oil amount from Hormuz on Saturday night. Trump also stated that they will win against Iran in military and economic warfare, while he didn’t want to say regarding striking Iran before the Midterms and noted that Iran inflation was at 318%.
- US President Trump told Chinese President Xi during the summit to stop supporting Iran, according to Axios on Friday, citing US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue.
- Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they have seen the initial response from US President Trump to the 7-day ceasefire proposal, but are waiting to receive the official response via mediators, while he added that only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock. Araghchi also stated that Iran’s conditions are clear and that any move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on these conditions being met.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war and that they came to forge peace, while he added that Iran remains steadfast in the face of any aggression even if it comes to an apocalyptic war, but is at the same time, ready for real diplomacy.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said regional states can safeguard their own security, and he denied Iran’s direct involvement in Yemen, describing the situation as unrelated to Iran, but stated that Iran is ready to help resolve the conflict and urged Houthis and Saudi Arabia to enter talks instead of escalating.
- IRGC spokesman said not only is the Strait of Hormuz not open, but it is a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy against US submersibles.
- Iran army spokesman said Iran’s armed forces are prepared for any renewed US attacks after US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran.
- Local sources reported that a sea cruiser fired at a violating vessel in an unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
- Saudi authorities suspended in-person classes in Riyadh for a week on Sunday, following reports the day before that Saudi air defences said they intercepted Houthi drones headed toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran remains ready for dialogue despite being attacked during previous talks, but pressure and attacks will not force Iran to surrender.
- Source said Iran is prepared to compromise on its nuclear programme but wants guarantees Israel will not attack again after a US deal, N12 reported.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING\
CUBA
Cuba In Crosshairs: US Army Reportedly Checks Troop Availability As Trump Says Communist Regime “Will Fail”
Saturday, Sep 26, 2026 – 07:15 PM
President Trump told the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday that the failed communist island nation of Cuba would see freedom, as the U.S. has not been shy about its intentions to kick the communist regime out of Havana. The U.S. has employed gunboat diplomacy through an oil blockade this year, as the failed state has seen its economy collapse even further.
“My administration is also seeking a fundamental change in the situation in Cuba, where the communist regime is under great pressure, the biggest pressure they’ve ever been under. It’s an absolutely failed state; it’s failing like never before, and it will fall,” Trump said in his speech at UNGA.
With Trump’s UNGA comments in mind, CBS News reports that it has reviewed an internal Army memo assessing the availability of military police, medical teams, and logistics units for possible use under Southern Command within 90 to 120 days.
The memo does not mention Cuba, identify troop numbers, or specify an operation. It also contains no indication that units have received deployment orders so far.
Here’s more color from the report:
The document reviewed by CBS News says Army Reserve headquarters is seeking feedback from subordinate commands on the possible availability of six types of formations that would fall under the authority of U.S. Southern Command. The units would “possibly [be] needed in 90-120 days,” according to the message, which directs commands to provide feedback to Army Reserve headquarters by Sept. 25.
Among the units is a combat sustainment support battalion that specializes in coordinating logistics such as transportation, maintenance, fuel and supply needs, along with an engineer battalion. The document also seeks an expeditionary sustainment command that would oversee logistics across a theater of operations.
The document generated last week also calls for a medical brigade to command and coordinate medical units, as well as a forward resuscitative and surgical detachment to provide emergency surgery and trauma care closer to U.S. forces. Finally, the document seeks a military police brigade — these units typically oversee military police forces responsible for security, detention and other law enforcement missions.
In July, CBS reported that military planners had examined an air assault involving thousands of soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division. Another report by Politico in August suggested that the U.S. intelligence community had “sent spies and assets” to Cuba. Specifically, the outlet reported that the CIA had increased its presence on the island, which sits about 90 miles south of Florida.
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1370 DOWN 0.0015
USA/ YEN 157.07 DOWN 0.127 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS//
YEN CARRY TRADERS MURDERED
GBP/USA1.3250 UP 0.0016 OR 16 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4162 UP 0.0027 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 27 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 64.75 OR 1.67%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 137 PTS OR 0.54%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.16%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 253.13 PTS OR 1.02%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 64.75 PTS OR 1.67%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.16%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 456.20 PTS OR 0.65%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4157.20
silver:$61.34
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 48.99 UP 1 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 84.69 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 54 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.4139 UP 5 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.9000 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.983 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.6372 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early MONDAY MORNING: 100.88 UP 18 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 4.0504% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +3.087% UP 1 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.1864 UP 4 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.150 UP 5 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.606 UP 7 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.6474 UP 8 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1356 DOWN 0.0030 OR 30 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.37 UP 0.179 OR YEN IS DOWN 18 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.4308 UP 7 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.9313 UP 7 BASIS POINTS.
CANADIAN DOLLAR UP 9 BASIS PTS TO 1.4138
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.7105 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.7134
TURKISH LIRA: 48.98 UP 1 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from THURSDAY at 5.189% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.581 UP 8 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.957 UP 7 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM $4117.00
SILVER AT 10;00: $60.83
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesTHURSDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME/ 12:00 AM///
London: CLOSED DOWN 10.37 PTS OR 0.10%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 34.22 PTS OR 0.13%
FRANCE: UP 068 OR 0.01 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 99.80 PTS OR 0.51%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 107.03 PTS OR 0.21%
WTI Oil price 94.61 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 107.51 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 84.50/// ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 35/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 4.007 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.7210 UP 9 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1369 DOWN 0.0015 OR 15 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3258 UP 0.0024 OR 24 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.4028 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.893 UP 4 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 3.087 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 4.163 UP 1 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.38 UP 0.180 OR YEN DOWN 18 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4172 UP 0.0038 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 38 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 92.85
Brent OIL: 105.67
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS pts to 5.245
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 8 PTS to 5.567%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.931 UP 7 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.960 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.675 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 101.02 UP 21 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.98 UP 1 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 84.49 DOWN 0 AND 35 /100 roubles //
GOLD $4,134.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 61.07 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 346.90 POINTS OR 0.67%
NASDAQ 100 UP 331.32 PTS OR 1.08%
VOLATILITY INDEX 16.12 UP 1.25 PTS OR 8.41%
GLD: $ 377.92 DOWN 15.49 PTS OR 3.94%
SLV/ 54.95 PTS DOWN 3.91 OR 5.49%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 268.93 PTS OR 0.75%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Bullion Battered As Hormuz Headline Roulette Sparks Chaos Across Capital Markets
WRAP UP
Stocks hit and oil chops amid mixed geopolitics – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 04:10 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.
- REAR VIEW: Iran reportedly agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions, but reports suggest the chance of an agreement is extremely slim; Reports published by some news outlets about Iran showing flexibility over its nuclear position are claimed to be false; Trump rejects Iran’s seven-day peace deal to reopen Hormuz; Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline resumed oil exports; Japanese FX Official Mimura jawbones; NVDA raises share buyback program by USD 150bln.
- COMING UP: Data: Spanish Inflation (Sep), Retail Sales (Aug), EZ Economic Sentiment (Sep), US JOLTS (Aug). Events: RBA Policy Announcement. Speakers: RBA’s Bullock; ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde, Vujcic, Lane; Fed’s Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr, Waller; BoC’s Gravelle; BoE’s Taylor, Mann. Supply: Japan, UK, Italy. Earnings: Micron.
- WEEK IN FOCUS: US NFP, PCE, and ISM Manufacturing PMI, RBA, and EZ CPI. Click here for the full report.
- WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: MU, ACN, NKE, and more to report next week. Click here for the full report.
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- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks finished lower on Monday, with the Nasdaq underperforming as major indices fell around 0.6-1.1%, while the equal-weight S&P declined 0.6%. Sectors were predominantly lower, led by Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary and Financials, while Staples, Health Care and Energy were the only sectors to finish higher.
Treasuries sold off across the curve, with yields rising around 7-9bps amid choppy US-Iran headlines. Yields pared from highs alongside crude as reports suggested potential progress towards sanctions relief and a nuclear agreement, although subsequent reports said the chances of a deal remain extremely slim. Thereafter, Press TV said reports of Iranian flexibility on the nuclear issue are false. Fed Governor Cook meanwhile warned of continued inflation pressures.
Crude was choppy but ultimately settled marginally higher as conflicting US-Iran headlines dominated trade. Reports of potential sanctions relief and Iran halting uranium enrichment pressured crude, before doubts over the prospects of an agreement helped prices recover. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline also resumed oil exports.
In FX, the Dollar was marginally firmer, with price action largely tracking crude. NZD and GBP outperformed, while CHF, CAD, EUR and AUD lagged. The Yen was choppy amid further jawboning from Japanese officials, while attention turns to the RBA overnight, where a 25bp hike is expected.
Attention now turns to a key week of US data, with ISM Manufacturing, PCE and NFP set to test the strong growth, elevated inflation and solid labour market narrative.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 12 TICKS LOWER AT 104-15+
Yields rise across curve amid choppy geopolitics ahead of key US data this week. At settlement, 2-year +7.5bps at 4.935%, 3-year +8.0bps at 5.019%, 5-year +8.8bps at 5.081%, 7-year +8.5bps at 5.160%, 10-year +8.4bps at 5.251%, 20-year +7.4bps at 5.623%, 30-year +7.9bps at 5.569%.
THE DAY: Treasuries sold off across the curve on Monday, with yields rising around 7-9bps across maturities.
The rise in yields came amid choppy oil trade on conflicting geopolitical reports. Initially, oil prices rallied after Trump rejected a deal with Iran over the weekend, although he said talks would continue. Yields hit their peaks in the late US morning before paring from highs.
The move in yields off their peaks tracked crude lower following reports that US President Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release frozen Iranian assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue. Yields saw further downside after reports that Iran had agreed to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for an easing of US sanctions; however, the move stalled as other reports suggested the chances of a deal remain extremely slim. Yields ultimately settled higher across the curve, but off session peaks.
Elsewhere, there was a lack of notable US data, with attention turning to PCE, ISM, Mfg., and NFP later this week. Fed Governor Cook warned of continued inflation pressures in the coming months, but noted that the labour market is well positioned to handle an increase in rates. Money markets currently price around 17bps of tightening for October, implying a 68% probability of another 25bp hike, while December prices around 38bps, fully pricing one additional hike and implying roughly a 52% probability of a second. This week’s data will therefore be key in shaping those expectations further.
Supply
Bills
- US sold 3-mnth bills at high-rate 4.110%, B/C 2.99x; sells 6-mnth bills at high-rate 4.285%, B/C 2.64x
- US to sell USD 85bln of 6-week bills and USD 54bln of 52-week bills on September 29th; all to settle on October 1st.
STIRS / OPERATIONS
- Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Oct 17bps (prev. 16.6bps), Dec 37.7bps (prev. 36.5bps)
- EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 112bln (prev. USD 105bln) on September 25th
- SOFR at 3.90% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 2.914tln (prev. USD 2.99tln) on September 25th
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.85bln (prev. 0.58bln) across 3 counterparties (prev. 3) on September 28th
CRUDE
WTI (X6) SETTLED USD 0.19 HIGHER AT 92.60/BBL; BRENT (Z6) SETTLED USD 0.39 HIGHER AT 97.83/BBL
The crude complex was choppy, but ultimately settled with slight gains in heavy, albeit conflicting, headline newsflow. In most recent trade, WTI and Brent fell to lows of USD 91.25/bbl and 96.20/bbl, respectively, amid reports Iran has agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions. Following this, and paring some of the moves, we swiftly had reports that the chances of an agreement are extremely slim, and that the gaps are wide and obstacles are significant. Before this, but post-European close, geopolitical risk on was seen as US official stated they are continuing positive discussions with Iran through intermediaries, and there will be no agreement without addressing the nuclear issue, as well as Trump is reportedly prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue. Prior to this, there was numerous mixed reporting, amid renewed US-Iran tensions over the weekend, including Trump rejecting Iran’s latest Hormuz proposal. However, oil dipped from session highs after reports that mediators are expected to hold separate talks with the US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, but it was later said that Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi’s New York stay has not been extended.
On the supply side, and pressure was seen in the crude complex, as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline resumed oil exports. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco is considering discounts on OSPs for crude loaded off Oman via ship-to-ship transfers to offset record freight rates, and the discussions with Asian refiners for second-half October loading cargoes involve a potential discount of around USD 9/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.76% at 7,685, NDX -1.08% at 30,277, DJI -0.67% at 51,482, RUT -0.63% at 2,820.
SECTORS: Consumer Staples +0.40%, Health +0.29%, Energy +0.22%, Real Estate -0.38%, Utilities -0.65%, Technology -0.70%, Materials -0.74%, Industrials -1.00%, Financials -1.14%, Consumer Discretionary -1.58%, Communication Services -1.67%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.10% at 6,309, Dax 40 -0.01% at 25,407, FTSE 100 -0.10% at 10,685, CAC 40 +0.01% at 8,078, FTSE MIB -0.21% at 51,760, IBEX 35 -0.51% at 19,600, PSI +0.08% at 9,712, SMI +0.02% at 13,948, AEX +0.36% at 1,116
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Nvidia (NVDA) board authorised a USD 150bln increase to the share repurchase prog., raising total prog. to USD 235bln.
- Apple (AAPL) ordered to pay USD 5.7bln in patent case.
- Boeing (BA) identified 737 MAX software glitch that could cause an automated navigation feature to fail during landing. In other news, FAA Administrator said software issue will delay Boeing MAX 10 certification, but not sure by how long.
- Northern Star Resources rejected a cash-and-shares takeover approach from Gold Fields (GFI) valuing it at AUD 38.7bln.
- Snowflake (SNOW) to offer USD 3.5bln of convertible senior notes.
- MongoDB (MDB) announced a CEO transition and Desai has stepped down as President and CEO, effective immediately and is leaving to pursue a senior role at Meta (META); reaffirmed guidance.
- ZIM (ZIM) reportedly recommended to drop deal by PM office, The Marker reported.
FX
The Dollar Index saw slight gains on Monday, as geopolitical updates dominated the tape ahead of pivotal US data later in the week, namely, NFP, PCE, and ISM Manufacturing PMI. There was no tier 1 data on Monday, while Fed’s Cook said there are signs of broadening pressure in inflation data and expects to see continued inflation pressure in coming months from AI and Middle East conflict. Nonetheless, Dollar price action was dictated by oil moves, as the Buck saw highs as crude benchmarks rose riser through the European session.
G10 FX performance was mixed against the Greenback, with the Kiwi and the Pound eking out slight gains, and outperforming, while the Swissy lagged, followed by the Loonie, Euro, and Aussie, with the latter awaiting RBA overnight. As a reminder, the RBA is expected to hike the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.60%, and the central bank has remained hawkish after three rate hikes earlier this year, with latest rhetoric and hotter-than-expected inflation supporting a hike. Meanwhile, precious metals saw notable weakness, with spot gold down c. 3.8% and spot silver 5%.
The Yen was choppy, as USD/JPY traded between 156.509-157.857, but fell to lows in the European morning amid further jawboning from Japanese officials; FX Official Mimura stated they are closely watching to see if markets take the clear message they are giving at face value. Not satisfied with or reassured by recent JPY action.
Elsewhere on the central bank footing, and seeing slight pressure in the Euro, was as ECB President Lagarde said that she views a measured response as appropriate to keep inflation in check. The ECB President also noted that growth was broad-based across most countries and sectors, and this pattern is expected to have continued in Q3. She added remain in the middle path for monpol that laid out earlier this year. On the neutral rate, she said rates are at the upper end of neutral range but she is not driving policy with a reference to the neutral range.
USA DATA RELEASES
“We Can’t Do Any Planning”; Dallas Fed Manufacturers Uniformly Negative
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 01:20 PM
As we await a maelstrom of Level 1 macro data this week, you could be forgiven glancing wistfully at this morning’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey’s modest headline beat (small decline MoM) and thinking “meh.”
That would be a mistake…
Production is soaring (yay!!) and is forecast to remain strong…
Employment is up (yay)… BUT is expected to plunge…
And more worryingly, Prices Paid and expected Prices Received are accelerating again…
Ok so with all that in mind, here are the (uniformly negative) responses from the surveyed group of manufacturers. They don’t sound like a bunch of business owners expecting new orders and production to improve…
- Tariffs and fuel prices are affecting incoming and outgoing products/costs. Customers have hit the limit on what they can pay. We are getting pushback and cancellations (Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing
- Fuel costs (diesel, in particular) are adversely impacting our bottom line and that of our customers. We’d welcome a quicker resolution to the conflict with Iran as we believe that could potentially provide more favorable outcomes, improved margins and stability in interest rates. Insurance rates continue to increase in cost with a decrease in coverage. Overall, however, we continue to expand operations with an ever-increasing backlog that will provide a record year of revenue and net income for our enterprise in 2026 (Machinery manufacturing)
- We are now facing increased difficulty obtaining raw materials domestically. Items that were readily available now take long lead times or are not available in the same specifications we have historically purchased (Miscellaneous manufacturing)
- The price of diesel fuel is hurting our gross margin. We are unable to pass this through to our customers. We are bidding new jobs using $6.00 [per gallon] for diesel cost (Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing)
- Broadly speaking, very little to no manufacturing growth exists as pricing is being driven down by Asian and Chinese suppliers. AI and heavy transportation are growing. Other sectors are weak (Plastics and rubber products manufacturing)
- Our business has been able to maintain its volume, primarily because several competitors have experienced significant difficulties, including the largest producer in our industry announcing the closure of two plants, one of which is relatively close to us in Louisiana. Our primary concern going forward is the outcome of the U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations. There are significant flows of foreign aluminum into Mexico, including from countries with substantial non-market production and subsidization including Russia and China at prices far below U.S. prices. We are concerned that reduction in tariffs on Mexican aluminum products will give these non-market economies a significantly advantaged conduit into our domestic markets. Rules of Origin policies sound good in theory but experience shows that this relies on the honesty of those doing the reporting. PROSECs (Program for Sectoral Promotion) are also problematic in giving Mexican companies the ability to use these same foreign-supplied raw materials in downstream products. For U.S. aluminum producers, the issue isn’t simply the tariff rate applied to Mexico. It is making sure that Mexico does not become a lower-tariff pathway for heavily subsidized aluminum produced in Russia, China or elsewhere in Asia to reach the U.S. market. (Primary metal manufacturing)=
- Incoming orders have really slowed down, and now that we are finishing up on some large projects that have kept us very busy since mid-spring, things are slowing down. We have to believe it’s due to the uncertainty around the chaos out of Washington, D.C. and lack of a clear path forward. Add to this the higher cost of living and rising fuel costs, especially for diesel that affects all modes of shipping, it seems to be a logical reason for slower levels of activity amongst our customers (Printing and related support activities)
- High interest and energy costs are a double hit. We can’t do any planning (Transportation equipment manufacturing)
Forgive rus our ignorance here but how the fuck is a sentiment index higher pretty much across the board and yet respondents are literally uniformly negative?
We guess that’s why the smarty pants PhDs get paid the big bucks.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
not healthy at all: and Trump thinks USA is booming?
(zerohedge)
The Commercial Real Estate Crash Is Moving From Paper Losses To Realized Losses
Saturday, Sep 26, 2026 – 11:05 AM
The great commercial real estate waiting game may finally be running out of time, according to Bloomberg.
For years after Covid fundamentally changed how Americans use office space, lenders and property owners managed to postpone much of the financial damage. Loans were modified, maturities were pushed out and buildings were given more time to recover. The basic assumption was that eventually interest rates would come down, employees would spend more time downtown and refinancing markets would reopen.
Instead, many owners are reaching the end of the runway with rates still elevated and buildings worth dramatically less than the debt sitting against them.
Chicago’s Aon Center offers an almost absurd illustration. The 83-story skyscraper changed hands for $712 million in 2015 and was subsequently refinanced, with $536 million of debt eventually packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities. Today, after losing important tenants, the building is worth nowhere near that amount. Its latest appraisal came in at just $195 million — a decline of roughly 73% from its 2015 purchase price.
Bloomberg writes that when the debt matured in July, the owner couldn’t repay it and sought another three years to sort things out. This time the lender wasn’t interested. The request was “unequivocally denied.”
Situations like this are beginning to pile up across the country. Office loans packaged into CMBS are now delinquent at a 12% rate, according to Trepp. That puts distress near an all-time high and, remarkably, beyond the levels seen in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, approximately $64 billion of office CMBS loans come due this year and next. Nearly $40 billion of that pile is already delinquent, in default or flagged as potentially troubled.
But this isn’t one uniform nationwide office collapse.
New York has been surprisingly resilient, with finance, law and technology companies still competing for desirable space. San Francisco, despite enormous problems left over from the pandemic, has received a new source of demand from the AI boom.
Other cities have considerably less working in their favor. Chicago’s downtown office vacancy rate is roughly 27%. Denver’s has reached an astonishing 39%. Los Angeles and several other downtown markets are also struggling, especially in areas dominated by older office stock.
There’s also increasingly a tale of two office markets within individual cities. Companies willing to spend money on office space generally want newer buildings, good locations and modern amenities. That leaves yesterday’s Class B towers fighting over a shrinking pool of tenants while their economics deteriorate.
And some of the repricing has been brutal.
Denver’s Republic Plaza has lost roughly 80% of its value compared with when Brookfield financed the property in 2012. Chicago’s Citadel Center recently changed hands for $137 million, approximately 76% below what the building sold for in 2006. The situation is bad enough that CoStar expects roughly 11.5 million square feet of Chicago-area office space to simply disappear through demolition by 2031.
Even those enormous valuation declines may understate what lenders ultimately recover.
Distressed office properties sold this year have fetched prices roughly 20% below their latest appraisals, according to Deutsche Bank research cited in the report. In other words, marking a building down dramatically on paper doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve marked it down enough.
There is, however, another side to the collapse. Once prices fall far enough, someone eventually decides the risk is worth taking. That process is now beginning. Investors are stepping into buildings at fractions of their former valuations, effectively resetting the cost basis of properties that made little economic sense at yesterday’s prices.
The same 601W connected to the troubled Aon Center recently bought Chicago’s 175 West Jackson Boulevard for only $41 million, nearly 90% below its pre-Covid sale price. Elsewhere in Chicago, investors acquired the debt behind another major tower for around $100 million, roughly 76% below the building’s previous purchase price.
That’s probably the most important part of what is happening now. An office recovery doesn’t necessarily require these buildings to regain anything close to their old valuations. It requires the old valuations to finally die.
For years, the industry could avoid discovering what many of these buildings were actually worth because lenders kept extending loans and owners kept waiting. As maturities arrive and extensions become harder to obtain, those theoretical losses increasingly have to become actual ones.
And only after that happens can buildings move into new hands at prices that make sense in the post-Covid world. As Polpo Capital’s Dan McNamara put it: “One of the scariest headlines is that office CMBS delinquencies are higher than after 2008.”
“And it’s going to go higher as we face more maturities.”
END
“Coming Monday”: Trump To Roll Back Costly ‘Green’ Rules To Drive Down Car Prices
Sunday, Sep 27, 2026 – 09:55 AM
All this “green” technology embedded in vehicles over the last two decades, such as automatic stop-start, cylinder deactivation, turbocharging, advanced transmissions, hybrid systems, and other forms of electric assistance designed to reduce fuel consumption and improve miles per gallon, has made the upfront cost of purchasing a new vehicle unaffordable.
The average price of a new car has exploded to $50,000, making it unaffordable for many working-class folks. Automakers have to abide by Obama-era and Biden-era “green” climate rules because these climate alarmists supposedly sought to heavily regulate the industry under the guise of saving the planet. In fact, overregulation has driven the cost of driving and maintaining these complex machines to unaffordable levels.
The DEF systems for diesel engines pushed during the Obama era have also added repair costs, maintenance requirements, and costly downtime. Many diesel owners have been infuriated by overregulation of these engines. Talk to any Ford Powerstroke or Dodge Cummins owners; they are no fans of DEF.
To fix the mess of overregulation and what can only be described as an increase in the upfront cost of new vehicle ownership, as well as thousands of dollars in maintenance bills and headaches, President Trump announced on Saturday that his administration plans to release new fuel-efficiency mandates that roll back costly green mandates.
Trump wrote on Truth Social:
BIG DAY FOR AMERICAN AUTO WORKERS AND CAR BUYERS! I have just approved new Fuel Economy Standards that TERMINATE Sleepy Joe Biden and Pete Boot-EDGE-EDGE’s ridiculous EV Mandate. The Dumocrats cost our Great Auto Manufacturers $Billions, forced Americans into cars they never wanted, and wasted Billions on Chargers that were never built.
These new Standards will take the waste out of building cars in America. That means LOWER PRICES, saving families thousands on a new, beautiful, and safe car — Far better than the Environmental Monsters that we were building heretofore. Every Manufacturer, from General Motors to Ford to Stellantis, has called me wanting to build here, and now they can!
Under my Administration, over $ 100 billion is being invested in American Autos, and that’s just the beginning.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy quoted Trump’s Truth Social post on X and responded, “A major victory for America’s auto workers is COMING MONDAY.”
Bloomberg noted, “If the final rule follows December’s proposal, the projected fleetwide fuel-economy average for 2031 would fall to 34.5 miles per gallon from approximately 50.4 mpg under the Biden standards. The final requirements have yet to be released.”
An NHTSA report from last December estimated that the proposed rule could lower upfront vehicle costs by $930, assuming manufacturers pass along the savings.
END
Bessent Begs Fed For Mercy
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 11:40 AM
If you wanted a textbook example of a central bank trapped between a geopolitical rock and a stagflationary hard place, welcome to September 2026. To wit: the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is tearing through the global energy market, and the resulting inflation shock is vaporizing the bond market.
As we warned readers weeks ago when the initial blockades began, the diplomatic “negotiations” between Washington and Tehran are turning out to be nothing more than political theater. With President Trump officially rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal, Brent crude has predictably violently rejected the downside, surging back toward the $107 level. Despite the usual algorithmic dip-buying on whispers that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi might speak to mediators in New York, the reality on the water is that millions of barrels remain bottlenecked in the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint.
The resulting shockwaves are doing exactly what we said they would to the long end of the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield has blown out to a nearly two-decade high, sparking dramatic weakness below the surface of what at first seems like a ‘far too calm’ equity market. The Dollar wrecking ball is back in full swing – tightening financial conditions, and gold is being temporarily liquidated as traders scramble for liquidity.
Enter Bessent
Now, Bessent is calling for The Fed to “keep an open mind” on the US inflation outlook – and that productivity gains from AI and deregulation will keep it in check, according to Bloomberg.
In short, the administration is quietly terrified that The Fed is going to look at the oil-driven inflation prints, panic, and hike rates straight into a structurally vulnerable economy. Bessent is effectively pleading with the Fed to look past the energy spike and recognize that tightening monetary policy won’t clear Iranian gunboats out of the Strait of Hormuz.
The market is pricing a 70% chance that The Fed will hike in October, ahead of the Midterms.
But the Fed may not have the luxury of an “open mind” given the market’s pricing (The Fed prefers not to surprise the market) and the incoming data.
As we noted in our PCE preview last week, the upcoming inflation-adjusted consumer spending numbers for August are expected to surge by the most this year. While government statisticians are desperately trying to massage the Fed’s preferred underlying inflation gauge – literally revamping the methodology to shave off three-tenths of a percentage point – the unvarnished monthly data is going to be a disaster for any dovish narrative.
And then comes Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.
Wall Street’s perpetually optimistic consensus is expecting a “Goldilocks” print of 90,000 jobs and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate. As always, we fully expect Biden-era BLS holdovers to rely on heavily massaged seasonal adjustments and the infamous Birth-Death model to paint a picture of a “resilient” labor market. Wall Street cheerleaders, like UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, are already pre-spinning the narrative, claiming the US economy can “absorb the impact of modestly tighter monetary policy.”
We’ve heard this story before. The market is entirely hostage to the bond vigilantes, and with earnings season still weeks away, equities have nowhere to hide from the soaring cost of capital (with hyperscaler issuance reflexively biting its own tail).
Bessent can urge the Fed to keep an “open mind” all he wants, but with oil knocking on $110 and the 10-year yield breaking multi-decade highs, the math is doing the talking.
MCDONALDS RESTAURANTS
It’s A ‘McDisaster’
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 06:55 AM
McDonald’s shares are on pace for their worst annual decline in nearly a quarter-century after the burger chain disappointed Wall Street last week at its Investor Day, with CFO Ian Borden warning that its US business would be “slightly negative” in the third quarter.
On top of that, Wall Street analysts, including Deutsche Bank’s Lauren Silberman, soured on last week’s developments and said the turnaround inflection point for the quick-service Big Mac chain has been delayed.
Shares of the burger giant have fallen nearly 31% from their February high and are heading for their worst annual performance since 2002.
Demand woes are emerging as the US price of a Big Mac jumped 23% between 2019 and the end of 2025, according to the Economist’s Big Mac Index. While those increases helped offset higher ingredient, labor, and fuel costs, the days of a cheap burger are long gone.
“Their prices have gone up substantially, and it’s no longer viewed as the best value in food,” said Jacob Aiken-Phillips of Melius Research, who has the only “Sell” rating on the stock among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
The Melius analyst noted, “I could go to Texas Roadhouse instead and have an actual sit-down experience with my family that’s not that much more expensive.”
What happened to MCD’s quality control?
Bloomberg pointed out that rival QSR chains are finding more traction with customers: Burger King posted US comparable sales growth of 8.5% in its latest quarter, supported by a revamped Whopper and a Star Wars promotion. Taco Bell’s same-store sales rose 7% as its $5, $7 and $9 meal boxes attracted customers.
McDonald’s answer to sagging demand has been an $8.5 billion multiyear overhaul involving technology, restaurant upgrades, food quality and service improvements, and an effort to revive its PlayPlaces, but the turnaround plan failed to ignite optimism on Wall Street.
Silberman’s key quotes from her initial takeaways from Investor Day:
- US sales remain weak: “US SSS were slightly negative in July and August, and while September should be positive, 3Q SSS are expected to be slightly negative given the slow start to the quarter.”
- Fourth quarter caution: “We suspect 4Q US SSS will likely remain sluggish, in part due to a tough comparison.”
- Forecast cuts: “We are lowering our 3Q/4Q US SSS to -0.5%/-1% (from flat).”
- The capex bill: “We estimate the total system investment for NEXT will cost ~$19BN, implying MCD will contribute ~45%.”
- AI and productivity upside: “We walk away with increased conviction in the company’s ability to improve unit economics by unlocking productivity through the implementation of its ArchIQ technology platform.”
Read Deutsche Bank’s report here. McDonald’s play fits into a broader theme UBS equity trader Mark Paski recently warned about: Wall Street has turned its back on consumer stocks. An expensive turnaround is a tougher sell when working-poor customers can no longer afford pricey Big Macs.
Hartnett Unveils The Two Numbers That Trigger A Risk-Off Deleveraging Cascade
Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett has flagged levels on the iShares Global Financials ETF (IXG) and the MOVE Index (a measure of expected U.S. Treasury volatility) as potential triggers for a risk-off deleveraging cascade.
morningstar.com
In his recent Flow Show report (around late September 2026), Hartnett noted a sharp recent spike in the MOVE Index (up ~33–35% in just two days amid a bond selloff that pushed 10-year yields to multi-decade highs). He warned that if this elevated bond-market stress continues and is paired with weakness in financial stocks, it could signal broader deleveraging and a risk-off event.
morningstar.com
Specifically:
- If the iShares Global Financials ETF (IXG) falls below $125
- And the MOVE Index rises above 125
…then a “risk-off deleveraging event [is] coming.” At the time of the note, IXG was around $128.90 and MOVE was around 105.6.
morningstar.com
He also highlighted a related scenario: if a U.S.-Iran deal pushes oil prices down another ~$10 while yields keep rising, that could independently drive significant risk-off behavior (as it would suggest yields are rising for reasons beyond energy/inflation).
morningstar.com
Hartnett’s broader context is that rising yields remain a key threat, but he expects policymakers to eventually step in (“policymaker panic”) to help cap yields and oil prices—historically a point when markets stabilize. In that case he suggested opportunities to “nibble on bonds,” with potential gains if yields fall (e.g., roughly 10%/14%/22% for 5-/10-/30-year Treasuries on a 100 bp drop over 12 months). Intervention would likely be negative for the U.S. dollar and supportive for commodities and emerging-market assets.
morningstar.com
These thresholds come from secondary reports of the note (e.g., MarketWatch/Morningstar coverage); the full Zero Hedge version is paywalled. Levels and market conditions can change quickly, so they should be viewed as the specific signals Hartnett highlighted at the time rather than permanent rules.
end
this is all Mickey Mouse!!
Bloodbath At The Mouse House: Disney Legal Chief Warns Of “Much Smaller Organization” As AI Layoffs Loom
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 – 10:50 AM
The happiest place on Earth is about to become a lot more miserable for the rank-and-file at Disney’s corporate headquarters. Just weeks after we detailed the ongoing corporate bloodbath at the Mouse House following disastrous earnings and streaming losses, another brutal reality check has been delivered to Disney employees. This time, the guillotine is being rolled into the Legal and Global Affairs (LGA) department, and the executioner’s weapon of choice is artificial intelligence.
According to a leaked internal memo obtained by Deadline, Disney’s Chief Legal and Global Affairs Officer, Horacio Gutierrez, delivered a blunt, unsentimental warning to his nearly 1,000-member global staff: prepare for the slaughter. In the missive, Gutierrez warned that Disney is undergoing a “transformation process,” stating explicitly that the LGA will soon be a “much smaller organization than it is today, and some of you will personally be affected by decisions we make in this process.”
In true corporate double-speak, Gutierrez avoided directly stating that machines are taking over white-collar jobs, but the writing is on the wall. He noted that the company will be taking a “dispassionate look” at every aspect of operations to find cost-effective efficiencies. The grim reality for employees was buried in the corporate jargon, with Gutierrez noting that the company must consider new models, including “automating certain workflows by leveraging the latest technologies, moving to self-service models where appropriate, engaging alternative legal providers and others, and new expanded share services, even outsourcing.”
Translation: You are being replaced by an algorithm, and whatever tasks the machines can’t handle will be shipped overseas or outsourced to the lowest bidder.
The timing of Gutierrez’s chilling memo is certainly no coincidence. It dropped on the exact same day Disney announced the hiring of Karandeep Anand – the former CEO of Character.AI – as the company’s first Chief Technology Officer. As we noted in our previous coverage of Disney’s desperate pivot to stem systemic financial bleeding, tapping a heavy-hitting AI executive to report directly to Disney boss Josh D’Amaro was a flashing red indicator that the company is looking to slash human capital costs drastically under the guise of technological innovation.
Gutierrez even invoked D’Amaro’s name in his corporate death warrant, stating that when teams work “smarter,” Disney can serve fans at “lower costs,” freeing up capital for content and infrastructure. He added that D’Amaro’s vision succeeds by “embracing technology to amplify what makes it great, not by clinging to the way things always have been done.” In other words, paying human lawyers and government relations staff a living wage is now considered an archaic anchor weighing down the balance sheet.
This latest internal panic follows the expiration of a “voluntary early retirement” offer pushed by Chief People Officer Sonia Coleman in August – a classic corporate maneuver designed to thin the herd before the involuntary pink slips are handed out. With executives openly admitting on their August 5 earnings call that more cuts were on the horizon following the April and July layoffs, the anxiety inside Disney is palpable. The magic kingdom is rapidly transforming into a sterile, automated, and outsourced corporate shell as Bob Iger’s regime scrambles to appease Wall Street algorithms with algorithms of their own.
END
KING NEWS
| The King Report September 28, 2026 Issue 7835 | Independent View of the News |
| University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Results for September 2026 SepAugSepM-MY-Y 202620262025ChangeChangeIndex of Consumer Sentiment48.151.755.1-7.0%-12.7%Current Economic Conditions50.951.960.4-1.9%-15.7%Index of Consumer Expectations46.351.551.7-10.1%-10.4%https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ Expected Sept UM Sentiment 47.6, Current Conditions 49.5, Expectations 50.5, 1-year Inflation 4.6% UMich Consumer Confidence Slides in September as Republicans Lose Faith Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% last month to 4.6% this month, the highest reading since June…Since the start of the year, consumer sentiment has declined for all groups by age, education, geography, political party and income…Republican sentiment is now 20% lower than January 2026; Democrats are down 13% over the same period… https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/umich-consumer-confidence-slides-september-republicans-lose-faith The US 30-year hit 5.532%; the 10-year hit 5.23%; the 2-year eased down to 4.91% at 10:45 ET. Bond and note yields declined with energy commodities on an Al Jazeera report that talks between the US and Iran have entered a “technical stage.” This augmented buying for the Friday equity Rally. U.S. Negotiations in New York Have Moved Beyond Initial Diplomatic Contacts into a More Detailed Technical Phase – Al Jazeera What’s in Iran’s seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? – Al Jazeera Araghchi told reporters in New York that Iran had presented its plan to the US through intermediaries. “If certain conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz would be open on the end of the seventh day and [peace] talks would restart,” he said… He did not give details but said the proposal resembles the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by Iran and the US… (Groundhog Day!) The new proposal is based on the MOU, “the Iranians are condensing the timeline and changing the sequence.”… https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/25/whats-in-irans-seven-day-plan-to-reopen-the-strait-of-hormuz The above article states that Iran is trying to pressure Trump ahead of the Midterms. However, Trump, to his credit, is calling Iran’s bluff. This is a message to Iran that the best deal they will get is now. After the Midterms, there is NO pressure on or incentive for Trump to make a soft deal. The S&P 500 Index gapped modestly higher (7709.86, +5.73) and rallied to a high of 7733.58 at 9:56 ET. Traders dumped; the S&P 500 Index fell to 7693.08 at 10:15 ET. The manipulation for the 11:30 ET European close begat a rally that took the S&P to 7727.50 at 11:06 ET. After a double top (7727.37) at 11:32 ET, the S&P fell to 7705.38 at 11:46 ET. Buying for a Noon Balloon and the expected Friday Afternoon Rally pushed the S&P 500 to a daily high of 7749.30 at 12:12 ET. Iran will make no nuclear concessions, Iranian official says: Reuters 12:36 ET, Sept 25 Iran says Hormuz to stay shut until US meets all demands Pezeshkian hopes for deal before US elections in November Iran will show no flexibility over its nuclear program even if the United States accepts its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which calls for steps including the lifting of a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Friday… https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-will-make-no-nuclear-concessions-iranian-official-says-2026-09-25/ Tehran will make no nuclear concessions, Hormuz to stay shut until conditions met, senior Iranian official says – Under Iran’s proposal, Tehran has offered to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Within seven days, hostilities would end on all fronts, including Lebanon; the United States would lift its blockade on Iranian ports, release Iran’s frozen funds and waive its oil sanctions, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Thursday. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/tehran-will-make-no-nuclear-concessions-hormuz-to-stay-shut-until-conditions-met-senior-iranian-official-says/ US official to Al Jazeera: Washington is in a strong position and controls the Strait of Hormuz, therefore, we are not in a hurry to reach an agreement with Iran. The S&P 500 Index rolled over into a pennant formation on the above Reuters story. The index briefly broke out of the pennant to the upside at 14:13 ET, but the 3-handle breakout aborted quickly. The S&P reentered the pennant formation at 14:22 ET. The S&P broke out of the pennant to the downside at 15:25 ET. After falling to 7731.81 at 15:30 ET and making a triple bottom by 15:36 ET, a late manipulation forced the S&P to a new daily high of 7752.07 at 15:51 ET. Weekend liquidation appeared; the S&P 500 Index fell to 7741.70 at 15:59 ET. The S&P closed at 7743.41 Professor Mohammad Marandi, a member of Iran’s negotiating delegation: “No progress has been made in the indirect negotiations with the Trump administration.”… 15:36 ET Sept 25 https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/2103569382970466386 Trump reiterates Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon as prez rejects regime’s seven-day ceasefire proposal (After the markets closed on Friday) https://trib.al/UIZjH6f @KarelMercx: The MOVE Index (Merrill Option Volatility Estimate for Treasuries) is surging (104.58). The creator of the MOVE Index said 150 is the level where the Fed has lost control and needs to step in. Trump says he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in China in November. OpenAI’s security fiasco explodes — and could tank Jensen Huang’s reputation More and more facts are coming out and they are absolutely damning · OpenAI’s software didn’t just attack Hugging Face. · It didn’t just attack a German web server. · It didn’t just attack Australia’s government servers. · And Australia apparently wasn’t the only country attacked by OpenAI’s software.. What does this have to do with Jensen Huang? Huang is making a fool of himself, by telling the world we can trust the companies, when each passing hour makes it clearer that we can’t. In the process, Jensen comes across as deeply out of touch with his own industry… The evidence that OpenAI is building something the company isn’t managing to control is vast and growing. No amount of Jensen proclaiming that 2 + 2= 5 is going to change that… https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-security-fiasco Another OpenAI Sandbox Failed, AI Agent Gained Internet Access One of its agentic AI systems was being trained in a sandbox environment when it exploited a “gap” to reach the public internet. With that access, it sent at least 20 queries to an unnamed, third-party chatbot service, including “What is the capital of France,” the report showed… Breaches by AI models developed OpenAI, Anthropic PBC, Google’s DeepMind and Meta Platforms Inc. in recent months have alarmed cybersecurity and AI safety experts. The Hugging Face incident was among the reasons cited by Anthropic Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei when he called for an industry-wide slowdown in AI development two weeks ago… https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/another-openai-sandbox-failed-ai-042943538.html Positive aspects of previous session S&P 500 +0.51%, DJIA 0.93%, DJTA +049%, Nasdaq +0.48%, Nas 100 +0.42%; SOX +1.41% SP Info Tech +0.99%, Industrials +0.94%, Financials +0.53%, Consumer Staples +0.51%, Health Care +0.49%, Utes +0.39%, Materials +0.29%, Consumer Discretionary +0.05% Now WTI Oil -$2.20, Nov Brent -$2.28, Nov Diesel -4.56¢, Nov Gasoline -17.12¢ at NYMEX close. Negative aspects of previous session The 30-year and 10-year hit new high yields for the cycle on Friday morning. SP Energy -0.87%, SP Comm Services -0.65%, Real Estate -0.36%, Ambiguous aspects of previous session Was the Friday Rally a Relief Rally/Technical Bounce or the start of a new leg up? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Up. Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7729.52 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7752.07 (15:51 ET); 7693.08 (10:15 ET) US jury says Apple owes record $5.7 billion (to Taction Tech) in haptic technology patent case https://x.com/Reuters/status/2103918796046000601 CBS: President Trump said Sunday he expects talks with Iran to resume in the coming week… Today – The usual suspects want to play for the Monday Rally. However, Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz proposal after the markets closed on Friday. However. Trump on Sunday said he expected talks with Iran to resume this week. It’s Groundhog Day! The pattern is for Trump to talk tough on or strike Iran after the markets close on Friday. Then Trump or one of his minions issues some verbal intervention to soothe the market on Sunday or early Monday. On Sunday night, equity futures are well above their lows and energy commodities are well below their highs on DJT’s Sunday verbal intervention. ESZ low 7778.75, -25.00; NQZ low 30,781.50, -97.55 ESZs -17.50; NQZs -15.50, USZs -6/32, Nov WTI +$1.20, Nov Gas +.03¢, Yen/157.68 at 20:11 ET S&P 500 50-day MA: 7636; 100-day MA: 7549; 200-day MA: 7204 (Close 7743.41, +0.51%) Nasdaq 100 50-day MA: 29,287; 100-day MA: 29,412; 200-day MA: 25,354 (Close 30,608.13, +0.42%) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,797; 100-day MA: 51,980; 200-day MA: 50,201 (Close 51,828.62, +0.93%) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) @Newsforce: Stanford used AI to alter a real student photo, replacing one student with a Black woman and making another student appear thinner. Billy Ramirez says he recognized the original photo from a campus dining shoot and was stunned to see himself removed from the final ad. He said the edit made him feel “silenced and erased” from a photo that was supposed to represent actual students. https://x.com/Newsforce/status/2102254059419832579 UPDATE: Stanford has apologized for its AI-altered student photo, calling the changes a “serious error in judgment” adding, “Quite simply, this was wrong and should never have happened.” The university has removed the banners and launched an investigation, while the other 2 students whose appearances were altered have filed a federal civil-rights discrimination complaint and demanded answers. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
CALIFORNIA
Is California Running A Shadow Welfare System For Illegal Immigrants
Friday, Sep 25, 2026 – 11:00 PM
The state of California spends billions of state and local tax dollars each year on welfare benefits for illegal immigrants through programs built to sidestep federal restrictions on public assistance, according to a new report from City Journal.
The report estimates that California taxpayers spent at least $11 billion subsidizing illegal immigrants during the last fiscal year. Federal law prohibits states from spending federal money on illegal immigrants, so Sacramento built a shadow welfare system financed with state and local funds and opened it to anyone who walks in. Residents paying the nation’s highest tax rates cover the tab. The pool of potential beneficiaries keeps growing, with more than a quarter of California’s residents today foreign-born.
Reporters for the outlet visited four public-services offices across Southern California to see how the system works on the ground. Officials at every stop confirmed that illegal immigrants can sign up for benefits themselves or collect them through their children. Nobody seemed concerned about who might be asking.
The authors described the reception they got from caseworkers in Glendale and Los Angeles, where staff walked them through the eligibility rules for noncitizens.
Local officials were remarkably transparent. In Glendale, we spoke to a welfare officer about California’s Cash Assistance Program for Immigrants (CAPI), a state-funded alternative to Supplemental Security Income that provides monthly cash assistance to low-income noncitizens who are elderly or disabled.
“If [you are] a citizen, you cannot get CAPI,” he said. “I don’t care about legal or not. Not being [a] citizen [is the key].”
In Los Angeles, we heard more of the same. We asked another welfare officer about the benefits available to illegal immigrants and their children. While some state programs are closed to illegals, we learned, they are open to those aliens’ U.S.-born children.
For the children, the key program is CalWORKs, California’s counterpart to the federal Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program. Illegal immigrant parents remain ineligible themselves, yet they can draw payments on behalf of any child born in the United States.
“If you were born here and the child was born here, you get money for two,” the welfare officer told the reporters. “Because she is not and the child is, she only gets money for the child, and not for her.”
It all adds up quickly. Illegal immigrants can qualify for CAPI, public health coverage, and a range of tax credits, while their American-born children can tap CalWORKs and Section 8 housing vouchers on their own. A hypothetical household of five, with two illegal-immigrant parents, an illegal-immigrant grandparent, and two U.S.-born children could collect more than $100,000 a year in combined public benefits, a sum that exceeds the pretax income of plenty of working California families.
Health care accounts for the largest share. California carved out a state-only funding stream inside Medi-Cal to offer “full-scope” coverage to illegal immigrants, and about 1.7 million people signed up. The cost runs near $10 billion a year, more than double what the state’s own legislative analyst projected. Gov. Gavin Newsom shows little embarrassment over the overrun. On a podcast, he boasted about his “controversial” decision to extend full Medi-Cal coverage to illegal immigrants.
Eligibility rules add another layer. The report details a legal designation state officials apply to certain migrants who would otherwise fall outside the programs.
California also uses a distinct legal category that enables certain migrants to qualify for state programs. The state deems certain aliens to be “permanently residing under color of law”—living in California with the “knowledge and permission” of immigration enforcement—and allows them to use this designation to enroll in Medi-Cal, CAPI, and other government programs. In practice, because aged or disabled individuals are typically not deported, this means elderly foreign retirees can arrive in California and receive extensive benefits.
In effect, California has built a retirement plan for foreigners and handed the bill to citizens struggling to fund their own.
BenefitsCal, the state’s welfare application portal, tells CalWORKs applicants it will accept a “statement” that they “intend[s] to file or [is] taking steps to become federally eligible.” A declaration of intent now doubles as documentation.
Of course, the gravy train for illegal immigrants extends beyond health care. In 2022, Newsom signed legislation opening taxpayer-funded food assistance to low-income illegal immigrants, and starting in October 2027, residents 55 and older will qualify regardless of immigration status, at an estimated added cost of up to $400 million a year.
California’s Low Cost Auto Insurance Program advertises subsidized coverage “regardless of immigration status.” In 2025, Newsom signed a law barring California LifeLine, a program that provides free phones and cell service, from requiring a Social Security number, essentially inviting illegals to use it. Meanwhile, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, the governor’s wife, has promoted the California Earned Income Tax Credit, whose materials assure applicants that having “no Social Security number” is “no problem.”
All this is happening while ordinary Californians drain their savings, work longer hours, and go into debt to cover rent, groceries, and one of the country’s heaviest tax burdens, all to fund benefits for people who entered the country illegally.
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING DR MARK CRISPIN MILLER
A MUST MUST VIEW…..
Covid & CV19 Vax Biggest Propaganda in World History – Mark Crispin Miller
By Greg Hunter On September 26, 2026 In Market Analysis, Political AnalysisNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Retired New York University (NYU) Professor Mark Crispin Miller (MCM) taught media studies for decades. He is a world-renowned expert in propaganda. Many years ago, MCM was on record saying just about everything concerning Covid was a “propaganda masterpiece.” But it was not just in America, the propaganda was bigger and more complicated in messaging and scope than ever before. MCM says, “The (CV19) propaganda is unprecedented in its scope and sophistication. You trotted out a disease that convinced people that it would kill just about everybody at any minute even though the actual number of people who died of Covid is quite a small number. . .. They had to create this myth that Covid was an unprecedented killer in order to get people so scared that they craved vaccination. They craved getting jabbed with an elixir that was a bioweapon.”
MCM goes on to explain, “The Covid propaganda was enormous. Just consider masking alone, the propaganda for masking was inescapable. You’d be driving down the highway and you would see a sign that says ‘wearing is caring.’ Everybody on TV was wearing a mask. . .. The head of the Chinese CDC said everybody has got to wear a mask, and all of a sudden, Fauci was saying the same thing. This was a propaganda drive that included China. The CV19 propaganda was the biggest in world history. It was the biggest ever. It was global. When has that ever happened? When has there been a global propaganda drive? Never. It entailed a false narrative over and over again. It also entailed demonization . . . of anyone who doesn’t go along with the narrative, and if you don’t, you are evil.”
Now, it seems like the CV19 propaganda is falling apart. MCM says it all started coming off the rails back in July with Dr. Anthony Fauci, who pled the Fifth 111 times in a Senate hearing on all things Covid. The pressure continues to mount to pull off the market all Covid and mRNA-based shots because of millions of recorded deaths and many millions more injured and permanently disabled. This headline from a few days ago shows the mounting pressure and reads “Healthcare Advocates Demand Reassessment of mRNA Vaccine Policies in Open Letter to Secretary Kennedy and President Trump.”
MCM knows RFK Jr., Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), and says he will ask him to declare a national emergency to get people medical help for detoxing the bad effects of the mRNA CV19 bioweapon injections. That is the next thing that needs attention ASAP because people will continue to die and be disabled from the CV19 injections as the spike protein producing gene edit from the shots never wears off.
There is much more in the 48-minute video.
There is an 8-minute video to explain how easy it is to ride out any terror attack or extreme storm. You can get more information on Sat phones and backup battery power at Sat123.com. You can get all the information on Starlink “Mini” here. You can get all the new Faraday bags and clothing at DarkBags.com. You can also call 855-980-5830 and talk to a real human. Same goes for EscapeZone.com where you can get Faraday bags big and small, and the newest Faraday clothing. You can also talk to a real human at EscapeZone.com by calling 702-825-0005.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes one-on-one with retired NYU Media Studies Professor and propaganda expert Dr. Mark Crispin Miller for 9.26.26.
After the Interview:
There is lots of free information on Dr. Miller’s Substack, including his popular “Died Suddenly” reports. The data is collected every week from the US and more than two dozen countries around the world.
You can support Dr. Miller by becoming a subscriber to his Substack.
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