EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,956.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/02/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 11/04/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 H GOLDMAN 1
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 105
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 1
365 C MAREX CAPITAL MARKET 3
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 143
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 46
800 C MAREX SPEC 2
905 C ADM 5
TOTAL: 153 153
MONTH 4420
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOVEMBER./2026: 153 CONTRACTS NOTICES FOR 15,300 OZ or 0.4758 TONNES
total notices so far: 4420 contracts FOR 442,000 OZ OR 13.748 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 135 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR .765 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1339CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 6.695 million oz
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $28.35 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL INSTEAD OF FRAUDULENT GLD..HUGE CHANGES AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.51 TONNES
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $1.05 AT THE SLV..HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 3.656 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//
NOV: INITIAL STANDING 5.820 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 155 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.775 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 8.400 MILLION OZ//
NOV. 9.11 MILLION OZ
NOV: INITIAL STANDINGl 10.566 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 184 CONTRACTS FOR 18,400 OZ//(0.5723 TONNES)//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.9129 TONNES
GOLD PRICE GAIN OF 68.40
NOV INITIAL STANDING 10.566 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 184 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 18,400 OZ OR 0.5723 TONNES///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.9129 TONNES
NOV// 19.72 MILLION OZ
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.93 PTS OR 0.82%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 132.65 PTS OR 0.52 %
Nikkei CLOSED HOLIDAY
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.49%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6722
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6724 Oil UP TO 97.30 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 105.55 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING 6.6722OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.6724 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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NOV 0//SO FAR
NOV 0 SO FAR
NOV 0
THE SPECS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT ROSE BY $68.40
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 2 ENTRIES i) Out of JPMorgan; 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars) ii) Out of Manfra: 128.600 oz (4 kilobars) total withdrawal 65,040.604 oz (2004 kilobars) in tonnes: 2.004 tonnes |
| Deposit to theDealerInventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 1 ENTRIES i) Into Stonex: 2604.231 oz (81 kilobars) total deposist 2604.231 oz xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 153 CONTRACTS 15300 OZ 0.4758TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 53Contracts 5300 OZ 0.1648 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 4420 notices 442,000OZ 13.748TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS:CUSTOMER ACCT
ENTRIES: 1
i) Into Stonex: 2604.231 oz
(81 kilobars)
total deposist 2604.231 oz
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comex withdrawals
2 ENTRIES
i) Out of JPMorgan; 64,302.000 oz
(2000 kilobars)
ii) Out of Manfra: 128.600 oz (4 kilobars)
total withdrawal 65,040.604 oz (2004 kilobars)
in tonnes: 2.004 tonnes
adjustments: 2
first: dealer to customer
a) Brinks 9,659.630 oz
second customer to dealer
b) JPMorgan 10,034.940 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI STANDS AT 206 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 1221 CONTRACTS.
ON MONDAY WE HAD 428,900 OZ( 13.340 TOONNES) STAND FOR DELIVERY: TODAY, 447,300 OZ FOR A GAIN OF 18,400 OZ 184 CONTRACTS (.5723 TONNES)//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.9129 TONNES OF GOLD
.
DECEMBER, THE LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR, ITS OI FALLS BY 3752 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 265.246.
JANUARY FALLS BY 7 CONTRACTS TO 656 OI
.
We had 153 contracts filed for today representing 15,300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 153 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 143 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NON /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,420) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV ( 206 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 153 x 100 oz per contract) equals 447,300 OZ OR(13.9129Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV. /2026. contract month,we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,420) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV 206 contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 153x 100 oz per contract) equals 447,300 OZ OR(13.9129Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in NOV becomes 13.9129TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV: 13.9129 TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV/
MONDAY VOLUME: 199,876 GOOD
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,707,855.126 oz 53.12tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,707,855.126.tonnes oz 53.12 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 23,141m317.598oz//
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,687.287.076tonnes (464.909 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 8,454,030.522oz.
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 12,979,432oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
403.714 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
NOV DELIVERY MONTH
NOV 3
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1 entries i) Out of Loomis: 596,692.140 oz TOTAL WITHDRAWAL: 596,692.140 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 1 i) Into Stonex: 556,641.210 oz total deposit 556,641.210 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 153 CONTRACT(S) ( 765,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 341 Contracts (1.705 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1339 contracts 6.695 MILLIONoz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRIES:
ENTRIES: 1
i) Into Stonex: 556,641.210 oz
total deposit 556,641.210 oz
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withdrawals:
2 ENTRIES
i) Out of CNT 147,143.073 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 402,158.411 oz
TOTAL Withdrawal: 549,301.484 oz
adjustments : 2// all dealer to customer
a) Asahi 417,769.410 oz
b) CNT 25,404.050 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 103.650 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 335.171Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR NOV
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 494 FOR A GAIN OF 125 CONTRACTS .
ON MONDAY WE HAD 7.645 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY. TODAY 8.400 MILLION OZ FOR A GAIN OF 0.775 MILLION OZ OR A QUEUE JUMP OF 155 CONTRACTS.
.
DECEMBER LOST 1952 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 80,582
JANUARY GAINED 16 C0NTRACTS TO 890 OI
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 153 or 0.765 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volumeMONDAY; 75,155 fair/
AND NOW NOV DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1339 X5,000 oz = 6.695MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of NOV. and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2026 contract month: (1339Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV (494 minus number of notices served upon today ( 153x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the NOV .contract month equating to 8.400 MILLION OZ t
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 103.650million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 125.145 ///335.171million: 37.35%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
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NOV3 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.35 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.51 TONNNES
NOV2 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.65TONNNES
OCT 30/ WITH GOLD DOWN $129.60 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.08TONNNES
0CT 29 2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 2,56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043,34 TONNNES
OCT 28/2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23,45 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD..INVENTORY REST AT 1041,65 TONNES
0CT 27/ WITH GOLD UP $38.30//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.. A WITHDDRAWAL OF ,65 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD..INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040,80 TONNES
OCT 26/ WITH GOLD UP $28,40 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GKD.. A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAK IF 16.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD..INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.47 TONNES
OCT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.62 TONNES
OCT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $87.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.18 TONNES
OCT 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $8.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 20//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 19//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 5.13 TONNES OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.91 TONNES
OCT 15//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.21 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.20 TONNES
OCT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $66.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
OCT 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF OF 2.281TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 12//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.13 TONNES
OCT 9//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.562 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 8//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.703 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.873 TONNES
OCT 7//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 6//2026/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.754 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 5//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
OCT 2//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.55 TONNES
OCT 1//2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.711 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
SEPT 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 2.847 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.407 TONNES
SEPT 29//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 25//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 24//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.84 TONNES
SEPT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1040.51 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
NOV 3// WITH SILVER DOWN $1.05// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.656 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.677 MILLION OZ
NOV 2// WITH SILVER UP $1.55// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.34 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.021 MILLION OZ
OCT 30// WITH SILVER DOWN $3.06// NO CHANGES AT THE SKV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.334 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLLION OZ
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTOR RESTS AT 498,327 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/ WITH SILVER UP $0.25 NO CHANCES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/ WITH SILVER UP 0.25 SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 451,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.94 : :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.72 : : SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 632,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 : : STRONG CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 858,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.508 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 : :NO CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 943,000 OZ INTO OUT OF SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.650 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :MEGA HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 4.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.593 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 406,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.219 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 : :SMALL CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.813 MILLION OZ
OCT 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.62 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 948,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.226 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 532,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.278 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 451,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.910 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.57 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.400 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 994,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.978 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.984 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.813 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.533 MILLION OZ
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.716 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.346 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.062 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.10 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.265 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.823 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.636 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.91 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.50 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 506.677MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO//RAVEN
JOHN RUBINO
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Mid-terms pause
Bond yields, oil prices, and gold have ticked back. This is because of mid-terms’ propaganda designed to enhance the Republicans’ chances.
| Alasdair MacleodNov 3∙Paid |  |
There’s talk of Iran at last prepared to discuss peace. Presumably, the logic goes that it would be foolish of the electorate to disenfranchise Trump’s Republicans just when he’s on the point of ending the war. Consequently, the immediate panic in the bond market has subsided:
Together with the oil price declining this is a source of relief for financial markets.
And with gold and silver down sharply, the debasement trade has been blown out of the water:
There is one big problem: It is market manipulation by propaganda. For instance, Iran is said to be ready to negotiate. They have always been ready to negotiate, which Trump actually signed for in the Memorandum of Understanding back in June. It’s just that Trump couldn’t compromise, and anyway has no control over Israel, which was not a party to it.
The most egregious example of propaganda is over oil shipments, with the Wall Street Journal and CNBC claiming that more oil was coming out of the Persian Gulf than before the war. Not true. Before the war, some 20mbpd were coming out of the Gulf, which had dropped to about 17mbpb for various reasons just before the war. This line is being bought by the entire Western media. Other sources beg to differ. Here are the independent IMF’s figures:
This dead cat isn’t for bouncing. If the IMF is correct, the WSJ’s editorial board should resign for misleading the public ahead of an election.
Furthermore, the propagandists fail to mention the stranglehold the Houthis have on Saudi Arabia’s exports. Reportedly, they continually disrupt the east-west pipeline from Ras Tanura to Yanbu hitting the pipeline and its pumping stations. That’s probably removing a further 4mbpd from global markets.
Between the alleged peace talks and oil supply disinformation, markets are being misdirected. After today’s mid-terms, it will be back to reality. That reality includes the survival of Bejamin Netanyahu who failed to win a parliamentary majority. He is pressuring the US for another wave of strikes against Iran. A return to a full-scale war might enable him to form an emergency government, which appears to be his thinking.
This is in accordance with Iran’s expectations: a renewed attack on them after the mid-terms, whose final results might not be known for a few days. Furthermore, there’s understandable speculation that Trump might resort to a nuclear attack on Pickaxe Mountain, which appears to be expected by the Iranians as a possibility. But if Trump went down that route, it would be catastrophic, with Iran wiping out his regional allies, and the real risk of a desperate Israel pushed into a nuclear attack of its own against the Iranians.
Both China and Russia would not take US/Israeli nuclear attacks against their Iranian ally lying down. Literally, all hell will break loose: surely the US can’t be that stupid?
Going on precedent, oh yes, they can. Meanwhile, we await the mid-term results. They probably won’t make any difference, other than that the propaganda stops, US bond yields soar, and the message will be rammed home that gold is the only safe haven.
END
CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/295
END
5. COMMODITY REPORT ///GOLD
COURTESY OF ROBERT LAMBOURNE..
WORLD GOLD COUNCIL…
Q3 gold demand broadly steady y/yTotal gold demand, including OTC investment and stock changes, was 1% lower y/y at 1,369t. Year-to-date demand of 3,881t virtually matches the 2025 record, while its value has reached a new high of US$566bn. Key Highlights
Central bank buying jumped to 321t in Q3, led by China and Poland.
The strong quarter lifted year-to-date demand to 675t, 6% ahead of the same period in 2025.
Global gold ETFs added 211t in Q3, in a sharp reversal from Q2 outflows.
Broad-based buying took holdings to a record 4,256t and generated a record US$31bn of quarterly inflows.
Bar and coin investment fell to a four-year low of 268t.
Rangebound prices discouraged fresh buying, although year-to-date demand remained at a 13-year high.
Gold jewellery consumption fell 17% y/y to 313t, the weakest third quarter in our data series.
High prices constrained affordability across all markets, but the value of demand edged 2% higher to US$43bn.
Total gold supply slipped 1% y/y to 1,369t.
Record third-quarter mine production of 1,071t was offset by an 8% fall in recycling to a three-year low of 314t. 2026 OutlookWe expect continued gold ETF inflows and resilient bar and coin buying, together with robust central bank purchases, to be the principal drivers of overall demand growth. Technology demand should remain firm, but elevated prices will continue to weigh on jewellery volumes. Mine production could reach another record high, but subdued recycling is expected to result in a modest decline in total supply.
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END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.93 PTS OR 0.82%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 132.65 PTS OR 0.52 %
Nikkei CLOSED HOLIDAY
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.49%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6722
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6724 Oil UP TO 97.30 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 105.55 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING 6.6722OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.6724 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.6722
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.6724
1A.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 132.55 PTS OR 0.57%
1 B. SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.93 PTS OR 0.82%
2. Nikkei closed HOLIDAY
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 97.30
BRENT; 105.55
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP 6 BASIS PTS TO 101.69 EURO FALLS TO 1.1186 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.7750 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 158.19… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.874 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN //CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN (6.6722 AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.6724
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yieldsLOWER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.3146 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN AT 4.4783 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.9260
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 4.2670%
3j Gold at $3902.20 /Silver at: 48.86 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 57/ 100 roubles/81.47
3m oil (WTI) into the 97 dollar handle for WTI and 105 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.92 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.7750% UP 1 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.874 UP 1 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8186 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9158
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9090 UP 2 BASIS PTS…NOW BELOW 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.2790 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.5940 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 50.00 UP 3 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.2298 UP 3 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.6628 UP 3 BASIS PTS
10 YEAR FRENCH BOND YIELD; 4.947 //UP 5 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.7530 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.480 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Mixed As America Votes, Apple Slides And Oil Rebounds After “Defensive” US Strike On Iran
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 08:24 AM
US futures are down but off session lows, with Nasdaq contracts edging higher, as America heads to the polls for the midterms, chips rebound even as Apple slides on a gross margin warning and Palantir tumbles on a soft outlook, and oil bounces off Monday’s 8% plunge after the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in what officials called a “small-scale” and “defensive” attack; as a result the oil-driven bond rally takes a breather with the 10Y yield edging up to 4.93%. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1% at 7,564 while Nasdaq futures are up 0.3% and Dow futures are down 0.6% some 300 points to 51,826. On Monday the S&P reversed a 1% gain to close down 0.5% at 7,541 and the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.4% into a correction, 10% below its October 6 peak, even as the equal-weight S&P rose 0.7% and the Dow added 0.4%. In premarket trading, semis and memory names are bid again while software lags, with Shopify plunging 19% and Dynatrace 15%; Apple drops about 4%, after the stock initially traded flat in the immediate aftermath of the report as we noted last night, while Nvidia rises 1.5% (Apple closed Monday as the world’s most valuable company, only narrowly ahead of Nvidia, so that title is in play). The day’s driver is the vote (with Iran in the background, again): Polymarket assigns a 94% chance of a Dem House and a 78% chance of a Dem Senate, an outcome which markets fear means more AI regulation and more hurdles for the data center buildout, with the Texas governor race seen as the one to watch for the AI trade; meanwhile US-Iran headlines swing between mediator proposals and Tehran declaring it is “now in a state of war” after the Qeshm strike. Treasuries are broadly flat and outperform European bonds, which slide as oil and Dutch gas rebound and ECB speakers sound hawkish. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%, the Aussie lags after the RBA’s split 6-3 hike was read as dovish, and the onshore yuan snapped its longest winning streak in three decades after the PBOC raised FX reserve requirements. In commodities, WTI rises 2% to about $98.45 and Brent trades above $105, gold drops 0.9% and silver slides below $50, while copper slips under $14,000; Bitcoin dipped to $76,240 before rebounding above $77,000. US economic data slate includes September JOLTS job openings, factory orders and final durable goods (all at 10am); there are no scheduled Fed speakers, and the Treasury sells $100 billion of 6-week bills at 11:30am. Polls start closing at 6pm ET.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Apple (AAPL) -4%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.6%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.09%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.4%, Nvidia (NVDA) +1.5%
- Apple (AAPL) drops about 4% after delivering a mixed outlook to investors in its first quarterly report under Chief Executive Officer John Ternus, with tightening profit margins overshadowing an upbeat sales forecast.
- Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) jumps 13% after the semiconductor testing equipment maker raised its full-year revenue outlook to the top end of its previous guidance range, above the Wall Street consensus.
- Bloom Energy (BE) gains 6% after California Resources Corp. announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the fuel cell company to advance decarbonized power across California.
- Clorox (CLX) rises 2% after reporting adjusted earnings and revenue that topped estimates for its fiscal first quarter.
- CVR Energy (CVI), a refiner controlled by billionaire investor Carl Icahn, about 1% after agreeing to buy two oil-processing plants and a marketing platform from Marathon Petroleum for about $4.2 billion.
- Dynatrace (DT) sinks 12% after the software company gave an adjusted profit forecast for the third quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
- Ethos Technologies (LIFE) gains 10% after the insurance platform said third quarter revenue grew 151% from the year-ago period.
- Harmonic (HLIT) gains 16% after the communications equipment company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is well above the analyst consensus.
- Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) gains 10% after providing a better-than-expected forecast for 4Q revenue, lifting shares by 9.0%.
- ON Semiconductor (ON) rises 2% after the chipmaker’s fourth-quarter sales forecast largely beat expectations and it agreed to acquire Ferric for $600 million in cash.
- Palantir (PLTR) falls 7% after issuing a quarterly outlook that pointed to a potential slowdown in sales growth, with revenue expected to be roughly $2.65 billion in the three months ended Dec. 31.
- Revvity (RVTY) jumps 7% after the life sciences company boosted its outlook for organic revenue growth and adjusted profit for the full year, following third-quarter results that were better than expectations.
- Shopify (SHOP) slumps 16% after the e-commerce firm reported subscription revenue for the third quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
In other corporate news, the AI bill keeps growing: Anthropic disclosed more than $895 billion of spending commitments, almost all of it computing power, as we reported yesterday, while Oracle sold $10 billion of bonds and about $9.9 billion of stock in a single day (blowing through its four-year “hard cap”), Alphabet placed €6 billion in the euro market and Meta is eyeing at least $20 billion from a potential multi-currency bond offering. Walt Disney is moving toward thousands of job cuts, with some managers asked to target 20% in annual cost savings (the unhappiest place on Wall Street). CVR Energy agreed to buy two refineries and a marketing platform from Marathon Petroleum for about $4.2 billion, backed by $2.5 billion of committed secured debt financing, while Apollo said new lending hit a record in the third quarter even as adjusted earnings missed, and ADM and Pfizer boosted their 2026 outlooks. Meta is wrapping up investor meetings today for its dollar and euro bond sale, after Monday’s $27.9 billion investment-grade haul. Brookfield and QIA will invest £2.5 billion in a Drax data center, and Bridgepoint shareholders are selling about 25 million shares in an accelerated bookbuild. Other earnings before the open include Eaton, Marathon Petroleum, Ferrari, Energy Transfer, Sysco, Keurig Dr Pepper, Fiserv and Yum! Brands; AMD, Super Micro, Arista, Amgen and Booking report after the close.
Global stocks are trading with little conviction ahead of the looming midterm election results, as Bloomberg’s Macro Squawk put it, and in Europe price action is a mirror image of Monday, with cyclicals lagging defensives alongside higher oil prices. Monday’s tape was the same story with a new oil price: the drop in crude supported tech for about half a session before the rebound faded, the Philly semiconductor index fell 3.4% on top of Friday’s 7.2% slump and sits below its 200-day average for the first time since June 2025, while the rest of the market carried on without it (recapped here). The S&P closed at 7,541, below its 100-day support, and Bloomberg notes the midterm count will decide whether the 200-day mark about 3% lower becomes the next line of defense.
The bill that is stoking the doubts got even bigger on Monday, with Anthropic’s $895 billion of commitments and Oracle’s $20 billion debt and equity raise. Pimco’s Emmanuel Roman put the AI financing need at about $2 trillion a year and said that it’s “going to be too much.” None of that stopped the year’s biggest deal: Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum at an enterprise value of $115 billion in stock, and the market sold both sides, with Lumentum down 19% and Marvell 13%.
“This is more of an extension of sell-off,” said Anna Wu, an investment strategist and founder of Floodlines Research. “With US midterms today and the Iran risk after them, investors are cutting tech exposure first.”
“There is a high risk that the Democrats will tighten regulation of the artificial intelligence sector,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “This will provide yet another argument in favor of a selloff in tech shares and will deal a blow to American exceptionalism and the US dollar.”
Which brings us to the main event: votes for the entire House, a third of the Senate and 36 governors. Prediction markets are near-unanimous: Kalshi has the Democrats at 94% to take the House, 75% to take the Senate and 74% for a sweep of both chambers, with a Dem House and GOP Senate at just 20%.
The historical playbook is friendly: DB’s Jim Reid notes that the S&P 500 has been higher one year after the midterms for all 20 midterm votes since WWII, and that the outcome may not be known by morning (the AP called the House only 8 days after the 2024 vote). The near-term playbook is less so, which is why the likeliest outcome is also the worst for stocks (see also the 3 midterm outcomes and how they’d move stocks). Citi says a blue sweep looks priced and the outliers matter, while Goldman’s Dioni Ellinikaki writes that “a Democratic House looks largely priced, with the Senate representing the main source of election related surprise,” adding that “fears of a nationwide data-centre crackdown are overdone.”
JPM’s Market Intel desk under Andrew Tyler says many client conversations are focused on the Texas governor race, where incumbent Abbott is favored but Hinojosa remains in striking distance, “with many thinking a Dem victory is Tech / AI negative given the ties to data centers.” JPM’s Ilan Benhamou calls Texas “the most critical to AI and thus to markets,” and notes the options market prices an SPX move of about 0.9% for Wednesday, the same as payrolls day, versus about 0.7% for a normal day, so “the vote is treated as a non-event which makes the event VERY INTERESTING.” JPM’s scenario map gives a blue wave a 66% probability (SPX “down 25bp to gains 50bp”), a split Congress 26% (SPX gains of 0.5% to 1%) and a red wave 7%. Tyler is sticking with his Tactically Bullish call and expects a tech rebound, arguing that the biggest non-AI risk is a Middle East re-escalation but that “oil markets appear to have already priced this outcome.”
Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky is less sanguine on that last point: “I’m a little nervy that the market got ahead of itself on oil… there’s a risk of re-escalation after the midterms.” On tech, he writes that it “feels like the rolling ball of de-grossing hasn’t stopped,” after Gen AI baskets fell 5%, optical 7.5%, neoclouds 6% and high momentum 7% on Monday, while homebuilders rose 4%. He also notes that the SOX trades at about 12.16x blended 24-month forward P/E, “approaching 2022 levels,” and Nvidia at 10x, “its lowest multiple since 2013.” On Apple, he says “AI demand is supporting memory pricing, but also competing for components and squeezing margins elsewhere.” Goldman’s US sales trader Ariana Contessa says semi sell tickets were “met with virtually zero demand/defense”, with asset managers moderate net sellers of tech and hedge funds moderate net buyers (short covering) in a quiet session, with desk activity at 3 out of 10.
Goldman’s Amanda Lynam adds that hyperscalers have issued $271 billion of debt year-to-date, already above GS’s full-year forecast of $250 billion, with more than $40 billion announced since October 29, and that “evidence of monetization by 2028 is key to mitigating downward pressure on debt ratings in the AI ecosystem.” And as Bloomberg’s Simon White warns in his MacroScope column, with margin debt at about $1.5 trillion and hedge funds owing nearly $4 trillion to prime brokers, tightening liquidity leaves markets increasingly prone to funding squeezes and margin calls.
Oil is the part of the tape Europe can use: Brent tumbled 7.6% on Monday to $104.77 after Iran’s president said he had been given more authority to negotiate and Trump hinted at progress, and European gas fell almost 9%. That rally reversed partially overnight after the WSJ reported the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in “the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against Iran in recent weeks”, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters a deal remains out of reach.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.4% at 647.16, with 386 members down and 203 up, as the selloff in US chipmakers spreads to Europe while healthcare shares get a boost from Bayer and Philips earnings. The FTSE 100 and Euro Stoxx 50 are both down 0.5% and the DAX drops 0.6%, with Germany and Spain the biggest laggards. Defensive sectors lead, with health care on top, while basic resources, tech and media lag. JPM’s desk says value and momentum are leading while volatility and cyclicals lag, with renewables, diesel and defensive baskets outperforming and AI and software plays lagging. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Bayer shares are up as much as 6.4% after the German company topped third-quarter sales and earnings estimates and boosted its full-year adjusted Ebitda forecast.
- Philips shares gain as much as 7.1% before trimming the move after the Dutch medical-device maker reported third-quarter results, with analysts highlighting strong order growth and a better-than-expected margin performance.
- International Workplace shares rise as much as 10% after the Swiss workspace solutions company reported third-quarter revenue that came in ahead of estimates.
- AcadeMedia shares rise as much as 7.6% after SEB upgrades the Swedish educational services firm to buy from hold, noting low valuation and a strong shareholder yield.
- Coloplast shares drop as much as 7.2% after the Danish medical-products maker reported a fourth-quarter miss on adjusted Ebit and lowered both its full-year 2026/2027 guidance and mid-term outlook.
- Adidas drops as much as 3.2% after UBS downgrades to sell from neutral, giving the sportswear maker its only negative analyst rating, citing a “materially more challenging underlying environment.”
- Alstom falls as much as 10%, extending declines after the French train maker was downgraded at JPMorgan and Oddo following Monday’s profit warning.
- TeamViewer shares plummet as much as 26% after the German software company cut its full-year revenue forecast, citing delayed conversion of large enterprise deals and economic uncertainties in Europe.
- AB Foods falls as much as 4.2% after the company warned FY27 adjusted operating profit is likely to be lower than 2026, mainly due to its sugar segment, and didn’t announce a share buyback.
Asian stocks fell as the chip rout deepened on concerns over AI spending, with the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index dropping as much as 1.3% and tech-heavy markets hit hardest. South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 3.8%, with SK Hynix down 5% and Samsung down 4.1%, despite softer-than-expected October CPI of 2.8%, and Taiwan’s Taiex slid 3.6% to its lowest since end-July; Goldman’s Asia Prime desk says Taiwan was the most net-sold market in Asia in October, with hedge fund net allocation down to 5.9% from 7.5% in early October. Japan was closed for Culture Day. Indonesia’s JCI also dropped 3.8%, with the rupiah at 18,139 and the 10Y yield at 7.80%, a more than six-year high. Elsewhere, the ASX 200 rose 0.3% after the RBA hiked as expected, India’s Nifty gained 1.2%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.3% for a third straight gain as the Hang Seng Tech index rose on buying of non-AI names. In China, the CSI 300 fell 0.2% and the STAR50 slumped 3.8%, as Beijing’s latest market-support measures, including liquidity steps, cheaper buyback loans and eased leverage curbs, failed to impress, though stocks bounced into the close on chatter that regulators would slow IPOs; the FT later reported the CSRC told banks to pause IPOs and large share sales (Beijing’s stock rescue turns more desperate). “Beijing’s latest support offers a glimmer of light amid the gloom surrounding Chinese equities, but it’s premature to expect policy relief to translate into a vote of confidence in a fundamental turnaround,” said Hebe Chen, market analyst at Vantage Global Prime.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% while the DXY is essentially flat in a thin 101.62 to 101.87 range as Americans vote. Newsquawk notes a Democratic sweep would “undoubtedly be USD-negative in the short term”, while a Dem House and GOP Senate may be more favorable for the dollar. The Aussie is the G10 laggard, down about 0.3% within a 0.6962 to 0.7003 range, after the RBA raised rates 25bps to 4.85%, an 18-year high, but three of nine board members dissented and Governor Bullock declined to provide guidance. The Swiss franc pared early gains after Swiss CPI accelerated to 1.5% in October, the highest in almost three years, versus 1.3% expected. EUR/USD is little changed near 1.1195, cable at 1.3417 and USD/JPY at 157.94. The onshore yuan ended its longest winning streak in three decades after the PBOC raised the FX reserve requirement ratio by 2 points to 6% from November 15; Goldman’s Sun Lu sees 6.68 to 6.69 in USD/CNH as a good fade zone, while GS’s Skyler Qian calls the hike “more symbolic than its actual impact on USD liquidity.”
In rates, Treasuries are broadly flat and outperform their European peers, with the 10Y yield up about 1.5bps at 4.93% as of 7:30am after falling to its lowest level since early September on Monday as oil plunged. USTs trade a handful of ticks lower within 106-21 to 106-27. Monday’s quarterly refunding announcement trimmed the Q4 borrowing target by $10 billion to $618 billion but put Q1 needs at $800 billion, at the high end of expectations and a reminder of the United States’ elevated fiscal needs, as DB’s Reid put it. European bonds slip, pausing Monday’s rally, as oil and Dutch TTF rebound and ECB speakers sound hawkish: Radev said the October pause does not mean the tightening cycle is over, and Moulin said the ECB must prevent inflation from spreading beyond energy. Bunds are down about 20 ticks and gilts underperform, down 35 ticks around the 86.00 handle; Germany’s 5-year Bobl sale drew just €3.839 billion against a €5 billion target. Mizuho’s Evelyne Gomez-Liechti warns investors not to buy the narrative that a divided US government would curtail spending after the midterms, while Australian short-end bonds rallied as the split RBA vote dimmed the chance of another hike.
“Attention should be paid to the possibility that President Trump, entering the latter half of his term, increasingly turns towards foreign and trade policy, where he faces fewer congressional constraints, as he seeks to build his legacy,” said MUFG strategist Masayuki Nakajima.
In commodities, WTI December futures trade toward the middle of a $96.12 to $98.69 range, and Brent January is in a $104.27 to $107.24 range, closer to the upper end, as crude trims part of Monday’s 8% slump on the Qeshm strike headlines and Iranian comments that a deal remains far off. Dutch TTF has rebounded to around €97.50/MWh from about €94 earlier, and Goldman raised its 2027 TTF forecast to €51/MWh. Saudi Aramco posted a 9% increase in third-quarter profit and said it will maximize production this quarter after exports returned to near prewar levels in October, while Middle East oil market metrics indicate near-term supply is outpacing demand for the first time since July. Iran’s IRGC Navy said three tankers caught fire and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking naval mines, and a refinery in Russia’s Yaroslavl was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack. Spot gold trades in a $3,895 to $3,964 range, almost wiping out Monday’s gains, spot silver dipped below Monday’s $49.33 low, and LME copper is under $14,000 in a $13,896 to $14,286 range.
US economic data slate includes September JOLTS job openings, factory orders and final durable goods orders (all at 10am). There are no scheduled Fed speakers; BoC’s Macklem and Rogers speak to lawmakers at 11am, and the Treasury sells $100 billion of 6-week bills at 11:30am. Polls start closing at 6pm ET. Earnings from AMD, Super Micro, Arista, Amgen and Booking are due after the close.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- The U.S. attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, U.S. officials said, in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against the country in recent weeks as President Trump touted the possibility of a diplomatic deal. WSJ
- U.S. Vice President JD Vance on Monday said he was optimistic about reaching a “negotiated settlement” with Iran. An Iranian official says the two countries remain far from reaching a deal as Tehran threatens retaliatory strikes in the region and beyond. CNBC
- Iran and the US are reviewing the latest mediator proposals aimed at bridging differences and averting another war; Qatari mediators held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, which were described as positive. BBG
- Iran’s IRGC Navy said three tankers caught fire and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking naval mines in the early hours while travelling through unauthorised routes with navigation and identification systems switched off. IRIB
- Saudi Aramco will maximize oil production this quarter, the company’s chief said, as it looks to keep cranking up shipments after exports returned to near prewar levels in October. BBG
- America’s referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term is underway, with polls set to open Tuesday morning for the US midterm elections and tens of millions of early ballots already cast. BBG
- The Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s emergency bid to set aside about 20,000 California ballots. BBG
- Nvidia is ordering its data center partners to reduce exposure to Chinese customers in a move that further restrains China’s ability to keep up with US rivals as the race between the world’s two AI superpowers intensifies. FT
- Anthropic disclosed a twelve-fold increase in quarterly revenue while revealing that it intends to spend more than $895 billion in the years ahead, as the AI lab courts investors for a potentially record-breaking IPO. BBG
- Artificial intelligence-related financing could grow to about $10 trillion over the next five years, eventually reaching excessive levels, said Emmanuel Roman, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. BBG
- Walt Disney is moving toward thousands of job cuts with the company asking some managers to target 20% in annual cost savings, according to people familiar with the matter. BBG
- Chinese regulators have told banks to hold fire on company listings and large share sales in an effort to bolster the country’s struggling stock markets. FT
- China said it would increase the reserve requirement on FX deposits in a move aimed at reducing appreciation pressure on the yuan. SCMP
- Australia’s central bank Governor Michele Bullock signaled a wait-and-see approach to further tightening after policymakers lifted the benchmark rate to an 18-year high. The RBA board voted six-to-three in favor of raising the key rate for a fifth time this year, omitting a reference that it was willing to hike further if needed. BBG
- The US has arranged trilateral peace talks with Moscow and Kyiv in Abu Dhabi next week to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, the first time the three sides will have met since February. FT
- The US is planning to ask NATO allies to contribute more money to a key weapons-delivery program for Ukraine, people familiar said. The request may come as soon as this month. BBG
- Switzerland’s inflation rate rose to the highest level in almost three years, driven by the surge in oil costs and a weaker franc. BBG
- Euro-area governments have been asked to submit nominations for successors to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde by Friday. BBG
- CVR Energy said it has $2.5 billion of committed secured debt financing to help fund its planned $4.2 billion acquisition of Marathon refining and marketing assets. BBG
- Hyperscalers have issued $271 billion of debt year-to-date, above Goldman’s 2026 full-year forecast of $250 billion, with more than $40 billion announced since October 29; “evidence of monetization by 2028 is key to mitigating downward pressure on debt ratings in the AI ecosystem.” GS
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following the continued tech rout stateside, where most major indices were negative, and the Nasdaq 100 dipped into a correction, although the majority of US sectors finished in the green and oil prices slumped 8% due to hopes for diplomacy, while demand was contained overnight amid the holiday closure in Japan and cautiousness heading into the US midterm elections. ASX 200 was indecisive heading into the RBA announcement, but finished in the green after the central bank hiked rates as expected, with the decision made by a 6-3 vote, while it remained hawkish but stopped short of signalling a December hike. KOSPI underperformed following the tech rout stateside and despite the softer-than-expected CPI data, which printed 2.8% vs exp. 2.9%, but remained above the central bank’s medium-term target. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed despite authorities launching a renewed effort to stabilise the stock market, including measures to boost liquidity, cut rates for share buy-back loans and ease curbs on leveraged trading.
Top Asian News
- PBoC announced it will raise the forex reserve requirement ratio by 2ppts from 4% to 6% effective November 15th, while the measure is aimed at improving the management of foreign currency liquidity in financial institutions.
- China’s CSRC has reportedly instructed investment banks to pause IPOs and large share sales through informal guidance in an effort to support the country’s struggling stock markets, according to the FT citing sources.
European bourses (Stoxx 600 -0.3%) begin Tuesday’s trade on the back foot, reversing the broad gains seen on Monday. Crude benchmarks have pared some of Monday’s c. 8% losses, after reports that the US hit Qeshm Island and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that a deal is still out of reach. To add to the downbeat tone were disappointing earnings from Apple and Palantir. Sectors have a negative bias. Defensive sectors lead, with Health Care topping the sector pile. The sector laggard is Basic Resources, with Tech and Media following closely behind. Key movers include: Bayer, Q3 metrics beat and raised its FY adj. EBITDA guidance; Lufthansa, trimmed its FY adj. EBIT guidance while lifting its fuel cost forecast; Philips, sales matched expectations while reiterating its FY outlook and announcing a settlement with the US DoJ regarding faulty sleep apnoea devices. US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in the NQ despite downside in Apple and Palantir pre-market. Starting with Apple, it gave a mixed report, with tightening Q1 gross margin guidance (45-46%, exp. 47%) overshadowing an upbeat sales forecast (7-10%, exp. 6.1%). As a result, shares are lower pre-market by 3.7%. For Palantir (-7.9% pre-market), its outlook also disappointed, as it expects Q4 sales that point to a slower rate of growth.
Top European News
- German Chancellor Merz said they need to ensure that the electricity tax is reduced in the 2027 budget, and has some ideas on how to do this while calling for further reductions in air traffic tax.
- Germany’s HDE Lobby Group sees 2026 German Retail Sales +2% in nominal terms, +1% in real terms.
FX
- G10s are mixed against the USD. The CAD, GBP and CHF are flat, with the latter scaling back some of its earlier outperformance following a hotter-than-expected CPI report. The AUD lags following the RBA’s decision to hike rates by 25bps (as expected), though the Bank did not signal further action.
- DXY is essentially flat and trades within a thin 101.62 to 101.87 range. Action which comes as Americans head to polling stations for the midterms, where a Democratic sweep is likely, according to major prediction market odds. Kalshi assigns a 76% chance of a Dem Senate, and a 94% chance of a Dem House. This outcome would undoubtedly be USD-negative in the short term given the implications for passing policy, slower growth and the increased chance of a government shutdown. Perhaps a more favourable outcome for the USD would be a Dem House and a GOP Senate.
- CHF was initially the outperformer this morning before paring back, following a hotter-than-expected CPI report. Headline Y/Y printed at 1.5% (vs exp. 1.3%), and pertinently above the Bank’s Q4 average forecast of 1.2%; importantly the Core Y/Y metric remains unchanged at 0.5%, evidence that second round effects are yet to enter the Swiss economy. A report which keeps the headline within the SNB’s 0-2% target range, but if the upturn in inflation continues, money markets will likely bring forward rate hike bets towards mid-2027.
- The Aussie is the clear underperformer this morning, in the aftermath of the RBA policy announcement, alongside losses in copper and gold. The Bank hiked its Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected. There were a few hawkish elements from within the release, namely the RBA sees materially higher inflation (as per its latest forecasts), and noted that risks to inflation are to the upside. On the dovish side (and driving the AUD downside), the decision was subject to dissent from three members, who opted to pause rates. Moreover, the Bank refrained from any hawkish guidance; Governor Bullock stated that she will not be offering guidance, adding that it is “probably good to wait now and see incoming data”. Overall, the RBA sounded a bit more cautious than in previous meetings, which has led AUD/USD to trade with losses of c. 0.3%, within a 0.6962 to 0.7003 range.
Central Banks
- RBA raised its Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected, in a 6-3 vote, with three members favouring a hold at 4.60%. RBA noted that inflation remains elevated, with risks still skewed to the upside, and revised its inflation outlook materially higher in its updated staff forecasts, while it stated that inflation is now expected to remain elevated through much of 2027, with the top of the 2-3% target range not reached until late 2027. The Board reiterated its commitment to returning inflation sustainably to target and said monetary policy remains well positioned to respond to developments, while it remains focused on price stability and full employment. It also noted that rate hikes since the start of the year have tightened financial conditions and that output growth is expected to slow further over the coming year, easing capacity pressures and helping inflation return to the target.
- RBA Governor Bullock said the rate hike was needed to bring inflation down and address domestic capacity pressures, with growth needing to remain subdued and unemployment expected to rise further. Inflation is largely baked in for the next year, while the RBA is not forecasting a recession. Additionally, she said it is probably appropriate to wait for incoming data, does not know how high rates will need to go or what the next move will be, and is not providing forward guidance.
- ECB’s Radev said the economic environment is getting more challenging and that the October pause does not mean the tightening cycle is over. Said core inflation is stable, and the energy shock has not passed on to wages.
- ECB’s Moulin said the ECB must prevent inflation from spreading beyond energy.
- SNB’s Schlegel said inflationary pressure in September was slightly higher than in June.
Fixed Income
- A modestly bearish session for the space. USTs are lower by a handful of ticks in 106-21 to 106-27 parameters. In short, we await the start of the US midterms (Newsquawk preview and dashboard available), while on the lookout for any further geopolitical updates after Monday’s limited kinetic action and the commentary from Iran.
- To recap, the US targeted Qeshm Island in a limited strike, aimed at preventing Iran from aggression within the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, sources report that while Qatari mediators were involved in recent days, the Iranian assessment is that a return to war is the most likely scenario; though political figures within Iran are reportedly pushing for a de-escalation.
- Amidst this, EGBs react to the energy upside, posting pressure of about 20 ticks. Pressure that is seemingly a function of the moves seen in global energy benchmarks, and specifically Dutch TTF, which is bid by c. EUR 2/MWh. No reaction to the morning’s ECB speak, which has stuck to the script.
- Gilts, as is often the case, underperform amidst this energy move. Lower by 35 ticks at the time of writing, but some 15 clear of the 85.85 base and holding around the 86.00 handle. UK specifics focused on the government’s EU relationship, ahead of the EU-UK summit, with reports suggesting some progress has been made on various points; however, PM Burnham has clarified that he is not proposing the return of freedom of movement. A point the EU is particularly attached to.
- Germany sells EUR 3.839bln vs. exp. 5bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.4x (prev. 1.1x), average yield 3.14% (prev. 3.2%), retention 23.22% (prev. 33%).
- UK sells GBP 3.25bln 4.625% 2037 Green Gilt: b/c 3.38x (prev. 3.31x), average yield 5.268% (prev. 4.934%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.2bps).
Commodities
- WTI Dec and Brent Jan futures are attempting to trim some of yesterday’s losses, following the 8% slump on Monday, which saw WTI relinquish the USD 100/bbl level. Losses yesterday came amid hopes of diplomacy, although the partial rebound overnight was facilitated by reports of explosions and that the US had attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island. Choppiness was seen this morning amid mixed geopolitical headlines (more below), with WTI now towards the middle of a USD 96.12-98.69/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.15-102.75/bbl range) and Brent in a USD 104.27-107.24/bbl parameter (vs yesterday’s USD 103.28-112.41/bbl range), but closer to the upper end. Dutch TTF has rebounded to around EUR 97.50/MWh from lows of around EUR 94/MWh this morning.
- In terms of geopolitics, there were overnight reports of explosions and that the US had attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island, while the attack was described as small-scale, defensive and aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
- This morning, the geopolitical flurry continued with early-door source reports suggesting that Iran and the US are far from reaching a deal to end the war, while the US’ excessive demands will not be accepted by Iran. Further, Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Monday for talks with Iran, which some reports suggested were positive and that Iran and the US were reviewing the latest suggestions from mediators. It was then reported that Qatari mediators went to Tehran only to receive Iran’s response, not for further discussions, and sources said political figures inside Iran were pushing for de-escalation. Pakistani journalist Mallick mentioned that to his understanding, an agreement to return to the negotiation table between US-Iran is in the works, but not as close as some had suggested.
- Precious metals are weaker as crude rebounds, with spot gold almost wiping out all of yesterday’s gains, while spot silver is now below Monday’s low, all despite a relatively flat USD ahead of the US midterms. Spot gold trades in a USD 3,895-3,964/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 3,874-3,970/oz range). Spot silver underperforms after dipping under yesterday’s USD 49.33/oz low. Analysts at ING “expect gold to regain some ground following its recent correction. But the near-term outlook remains challenging amid expectations for higher rates and a stronger dollar, limiting the scope for a more sustained recovery.”
- 3M LME copper is also on the back foot and under the 14k mark in a current USD 13,896.05-14,286.35/t range at the time of writing.
- Saudi Aramco CEO expects global liquid fuel demand to rise by c. 2.4mln bpd by 2027 and warned energy markets will face pressure this winter. Said the East-West pipeline expansion is underway, China is increasing crude purchases and Aramco remains ready to rapidly increase production if needed. Added that exports resumed within days following attacks on the East-West pipeline.
- ADNOC Gas CEO said gas demand will continue growing in the long term and emphasised the need for more energy and diversified supply.
- Goldman Sachs raised 2027 TTF Average Price Projection to EUR 51/MWh from EUR 44/MWh to reflect a 45% chance of a low-winter-Mideast LNG supply scenario.
Trade/Tariffs
- China’s MOFCOM said Vice Minister Li met with a US agricultural trade delegation, with both sides exchanging views on China-US economic and trade relations and agricultural trade cooperation.
- UK and EU agreed a draft deal on removing post-Brexit checks from food and agriculture exports.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and that could happen, while he added that Iran said even recently that they won’t have a nuclear weapon.
- CIA Director Ratcliffe was reportedly advising US President Trump to maintain the ‘no war, no deal’ status quo and allow the economic pressure campaign to continue, while he said the prolonged economic pain will induce Iran to make more concessions or create enough instability in Iran that citizens revolt, according to sources cited by Axios’s Ravid.
- US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against Iran in recent weeks as President Trump touts the possibility of a diplomatic deal, while the attacks were described as small-scale and defensive, aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by WSJ.
- US source told the Jerusalem Post that the US was behind the attack on Qeshm Island and stated it was a small incident intended for self-defence, while a US official cited by Axios’s Ravid stated that the IRGC fired a missile from Qeshm Island at a US aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night and a US fighter jet then eliminated the surface-to-air launcher in self-defence, with the attack also described as a small incident.
- An agreement for Iran and the US to return to negotiations is reportedly in the works, although a deal is not as close as some suggest, according to journalist Mallick.
- A senior Iranian official said Iran and the US remain far from reaching a deal to end the war despite intensified mediation efforts, Reuters reported. Tehran insisted its conditions must be met before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, with nuclear talks only possible afterwards, and rejected Washington’s “excessive demands”.
- Iran and the US are reportedly reviewing the latest mediator proposals aimed at bridging differences and averting another war, Bloomberg reported. Qatari mediators held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, which were described as positive.
- Qatari mediators reportedly travelled to Tehran solely to receive Iran’s response rather than hold further talks, according to Al Arabiya sources. Iran’s President, Parliament Speaker and Foreign Minister reportedly urged military authorities to respond positively to Qatar’s proposal, although Iranian assessments suggest a return to war is now the most likely scenario.
- Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said mediation efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran are ongoing, with both sides committed to the process. The Qatari delegation has returned to Doha following talks in Tehran, while Gulf countries remain united in seeking to avoid escalation. Said there is still hope for a deal that would pave the way for future negotiations.
- Iranian diplomat Gharibabadi said the exchange of messages through Qatari mediation continues and that a diplomatic agreement is possible if Tehran’s demands are met. He later said that diplomatic talks and message exchanges continue through Qatari mediation, with Iran’s 7-day plan as the basis and an agreement is possible if Tehran’s demands are met, while warning that any official threat to use tactical nuclear weapons would undermine the NPT’s legal framework.
- Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said they are at the highest level of defensive readiness. He added that the ball is in the US’ court, after a strong and rational response was provided to the US. He went on to say that Iran’s armed forces’ response to any enemy miscalculation will be unpredictable and not bound by geographical limits.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran has no hostility towards GCC member states and appreciates the positive role of Qatar and Oman. Will continue talks with Saudi Arabia and aims to establish new regional security arrangements led by regional countries without the presence of foreign militaries.
- Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei rejected a Qatari proposal to establish direct communication between US diplomats and the Iranian delegation that visited Doha, according to Aram News citing sources.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry said that they are now in a state of war following the targeting of Qeshm.
- Iran is said to be ready with a more devastating response to US attacks and has preserved a significant portion of missile and drone capabilities and its weapons production capacity, and is more prepared than before, according to a report cited by IRIB.
- IRGC Navy said three tankers caught fire and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking naval mines in the early hours while travelling through unauthorised routes with navigation and identification systems switched off, IRIB reported.
- Saudi Defence Minister said he discussed de-escalation efforts in the region and the Houthis’ continued attacks during a call with US Secretary of Defence Hegseth.
- Houthi spokesperson said the Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that they did not carry out any operation today towards Saudi territory.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US envoy Witkoff said the US will mediate working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10th-11th and that trilateral talks will cover ending the war and post-war security agreements, as well as de-escalation and aid measures, while he also stated that US officials are to meet this week in Brussels with France, Germany, UK, EU and NATO representatives to discuss Ukraine. Russia’s Kremlin later confirmed the trilateral Ukraine talks.
- US is planning to ask NATO allies to contribute more money to a key weapons-delivery programme for Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia launched a large-scale, coordinated overnight attack targeting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, primarily energy generation facilities and substations.
- Russia said it carried out a large-scale overnight attack on Ukraine’s energy facilities, while it was also reported that an oil refinery in Russia’s Yaroslavl was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack.
- US, Chinese and Russian officials are reportedly in talks regarding a possible trilateral summit between the leaders later in November, according to the FT citing sources. The source added that it remains unclear whether the talks would happen trilaterally, or bilaterally between China-US and China-Russia, while suggesting that the US is pressuring China to agree to a meeting.
Crypto
- Bitcoin briefly dipped below Monday’s USD 76.55k low to a trough of USD 76.24k, before reversing to a high of USD 77.19k.
US Event Calendar
- 10:00am: Sept. JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7164k, prior 7079k
- 10:00am: Sept. Factory Orders, est. 1.2%, prior 0.1%
- 10:00am: Sept. F Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.8%, prior 1.8%
- 10:00am: Sept. F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
- 10:00am: Sept. F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
- 10:00am: Sept. F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 1.2%, prior 1.2%
- 11:30am: US to sell $100 billion of 6-week bills
Central Bank Speakers
- No Fed speakers scheduled
- 11:00am: BoC Gov. Macklem, Senior Deputy Gov. Rogers Speak to Lawmakers
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to midterms day and markets go into it again caught in the crosswinds between energy and AI themes. Global assets had traded much better for most of yesterday, as hopes for a resolution in the US-Iran conflict caused oil prices to tumble. Indeed, even if we account for the contract roll, the Jan 2027 contract for Brent crude oil was still down -7.63% on the day, closing at $104.77/bbl, which sent bond yields lower on both sides of the Atlantic too. While that initially also sparked an equity rally, the S&P 500 ended up reversing a +1% gain to close -0.51% lower as the tech sentiment again turned negative, sending the Nasdaq 100 (-1.39%) into technical correction territory.
After the bell, Apple then delivered a mixed set of results. While its Q3 sales slightly beat expectations ($114.5bn vs $113.5bn), the company projected a narrowing of its gross margin in the current quarter (45-46% vs 47% est.). Those margin pressures pushed Apple’s shares to a -3% decline in after-hours trading. This followed a -1.83% decline in yesterday’s regular session, which still left it as the world’s most valuable company, narrowly ahead of Nvidia.
Overnight, the KOSPI is down -3.76% after the tech losses in the US while S&P 500 (-0.19%) and NASDAQ futures (-0.12%) are lower again. Stoxx futures (-0.87%) are being harder hit as they closed before the late US sell-off.
Now onto the main event. Today includes votes for the entire House of Representatives (the lower chamber), a third of the Senate (the upper chamber), along with 36 state Governors. And when it comes to markets, it’s no exaggeration to suggest that midterm elections are one of the best historical buy signals for equities we have. Indeed, the S&P 500 has been higher one year after the midterms for all 20 midterm votes since WWII.
Currently, the Republicans control both chambers of Congress, but the incumbent President’s party usually loses ground in midterm votes. Moreover, polling averages and prediction markets are consistently pointing to Democratic gains today. For example, Polymarket gives the Democrats a 95% chance of victory in the House as of this morning, and a 79% chance of retaking the Senate.
In the House of Representatives, the Republicans only won a very narrow majority in 2024, with the chamber split 220-215 between Republicans and Democrats. So the Democrats require a net gain of just 3 seats to take control. Moreover, in 18 out of 20 midterm elections since WWII, the incumbent President’s Party has lost seats in the House. So the Democrats are very strong favourites to win a majority there. In the Senate, however, it’s a bit more difficult for them. Last time, the Republicans had a 53-47 edge, and because VP Vance has the tiebreaking vote, it means the Democrats would need to pick up 4 seats to take control. And only a third of the Senate seats are up for grabs, which limits the opportunity for pickups by the Democrats and makes the task of gaining control of the Senate more difficult. Current polls suggest this is very possible, and if you look at the RealClearPolitics average, the Democrats are currently ahead in North Carolina, Alaska, Texas, Maine, Ohio, and Kansas, all of which are currently held by Republicans.
It’s difficult to know exactly when we’ll know the outcome, and depending how tight any close races are, it might be some time after the election. For instance, in 2024, we knew that the Republicans had control of the Senate on election night. However, the narrow House majority meant that the Associated Press only projected a Republican victory in the House 8 days after the election. So it’s not a given we’ll know by the morning, even if we should have a good idea of the direction of travel.
Whatever the results are tonight, the new Congress doesn’t actually convene until January 3. However, even if the Democrats take just one chamber, that will have major implications for Trump’s legislative agenda, as all legislation requires majority support in both chambers of Congress. Notably from a market standpoint, that includes spending packages, as well as increases in the debt ceiling. So even if the Democrats just win in the House, it will constrain Trump’s room for manoeuvre. In addition, the Senate is the chamber that votes on presidential nominees, including cabinet appointments, Supreme Court justices and Fed Governors. So if the Democrats take the Senate as well (which hasn’t happened to Trump in either of his terms), then he’ll face a further constraint on who he can appoint.
However, even if the Democrats take control of both chambers, they’re still limited in what they can do. That’s because legislation still requires the President’s signature, and that can only be overridden if two-thirds of both chambers vote for it. So Trump still retains a veto power, even if Democratic majorities were to pass legislation he was opposed to.
With all that to look forward to, markets have put in a mixed performance over the last 24 hours, as the tailwind from a huge decline in oil prices was offset by continued AI concerns. To be fair, there was a contract roll that makes the headline decline look even bigger. But if you simply take the new active Jan 2027 contract for consistency, Brent crude oil still fell -7.63% on the day to $104.77/bbl. In part, that was a reaction to the Axios report we mentioned in yesterday’s edition, which said that Trump wanted to give diplomacy more time. But we then heard in the session that Iran’s Supreme Leader had given the government powers to hold peace talks, which added to hopes about some kind of diplomatic breakthrough. And later in the US session, we heard positive comments from Trump who downplayed prospects of renewed strikes against Iran, while Vice President Vance said he felt good about prospects of an Iran deal. Oil is back up half a percent this morning on a WSJ report of a US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island. The story hasn’t been picked up widely though and goes against much of the commentary over the last 24 hours.
Indeed, that more dovish commentary yesterday led to a wave of relief across markets, as there had been fears of an escalation shortly after the midterm elections. This hope helped to drive a decent rally for European assets. In Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-3.1bps), OATs (-7.3bps) and BTPs (-8.9bps) saw notable declines. This left the Franco-German 10yr spread tighter by -4.2bps on the day. European equities also saw a broad advance, taking the STOXX 600 (+0.42%) to its highest since early September, alongside gains for the DAX (+0.63%) and the CAC 40 (+0.98%).
The pullback in inflation expectations also supported Treasuries, with 10yr yields (-1.6bps) falling back to 4.91%, their lowest level since early September. That said, they did give up some of their advance later in the session following the Treasury’s latest quarterly refunding announcement. It revised the Q4 borrowing target by -$10bn to $618bn and estimated Q1 borrowing needs at $800bn, with the latter figure coming at the high end of expectation and serving as a reminder of the United States’ elevated fiscal needs.
Meanwhile, the rally in US equities proved short-lived as chipmaker sentiment deteriorated over the course of the session. Early on, the S&P 500 had traded +1.08% higher, supported by easing geopolitical fears as well as a strong ISM manufacturing print. This saw an unexpected increase to a three-month high of 55.5 in October (vs. 54.5 expected). However, the tech mood then soured, led by a continued slump in the Philly semiconductor index (-3.37%), which also pulled the Nasdaq 100 (-1.39%) down into technical correction territory, with a -10.36% decline from its October 6 peak. While there wasn’t an overt catalyst, emerging expectations of a blue wave in the midterms appeared to weigh on the sector, given the possibility that a Democratic win might create greater hurdles for data center buildout and a push for more AI regulation.
By contrast, the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose +0.73%, as more than two thirds of the index advanced. So that continued the pattern we noted in our October performance review yesterday (see here) of tech losses masking broader equity resilience.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning as investors assess Apple’s earnings outlook and position for the upcoming US midterm elections. The KOSPI (-3.76%) is the region’s weakest performer but with the Nikkei closed for a holiday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.52%) is modestly higher, while the CSI 300 (-0.08%) is little changed and the Shanghai Composite (-0.71%) has edged lower after the PBOC reiterated support measures aimed at strengthening market stability through greater use of stock-market support tools.
Early morning data showed that South Korea’s consumer inflation eased in October, rising less than expected on an annual basis, while underlying price pressures remained firm. The consumer price index rose 2.8% from a year earlier, slowing from September’s 2.9% increase and below expectations of 2.9%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% year-on-year, matching September’s pace. The figures come ahead of the Bank of Korea’s Nov. 26 policy meeting.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25bps to 4.85%, the highest level in 18 years, while warning that further tightening may be needed to combat persistent inflation. The decision was split, with three of the nine board members favouring a pause. The move marks the RBA’s fifth rate hike this year as it continues to grapple with sticky price pressures. In its latest statement, the RBA now expects trimmed mean inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% in December, up from its previous forecast of 3.3%,before easing to 3.5% by mid-2027, compared with 3.0% projected in August. Underlying inflation is now expected to return to the 2.5% midpoint of the target range by June 2028, six months later than previously anticipated. We await the conference.
Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the US midterm elections. Otherwise, US data releases include the JOLTS report of job openings for September, and factory orders for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Radev, Kocher, Dolenc, Escriva, Moulin, Nagel and Sleijpen.
1b European opening report
Crude benchmarks move off lows after the US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island; AAPL -4% post-earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 06:10 AM
- The US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, with an official describing it as small-scale and defensive.
- Journalist Mallick reported that an agreement for Iran and the US to return to negotiations is reportedly in the works, although a deal is not as close as some suggest.
- Multiple reports and Iranian commentary continue to suggest that Iran and the US are reviewing a mediator proposal.
- US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming despite pre-market losses in Apple and Palantir.
- DXY is modestly softer; CHF pares back gains following a hot CPI report, AUD lags as the RBA fails to provide guidance.
- Fixed income benchmarks lower amid higher energy benchmarks (Brent +1.1%).
- Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS (Sep), US midterm elections. Speakers include BoC’s Macklem & Rogers. Earnings from Pfizer, AMD & Super Micro.
SNAPSHOT
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (Stoxx 600 -0.3%) begin Tuesday’s trade on the back foot, reversing the broad gains seen on Monday. Crude benchmarks have pared some of Monday’s c. 8% losses, after reports that the US hit Qeshm Island and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that a deal is still out of reach. To add to the downbeat tone were disappointing earnings from Apple and Palantir.
- Sectors have a negative bias. Defensive sectors lead, with Health Care topping the sector pile. The sector laggard is Basic Resources, with Tech and Media following closely behind.
- Key movers include: Bayer, Q3 metrics beat and raised its FY adj. EBITDA guidance; Lufthansa, trimmed its FY adj. EBIT guidance while lifting its fuel cost forecast; Philips, sales matched expectations while reiterating its FY outlook and announcing a settlement with the US DoJ regarding faulty sleep apnoea devices.
- US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in the NQ despite downside in Apple and Palantir pre-market. Starting with Apple, it gave a mixed report, with tightening Q1 gross margin guidance (45-46%, exp. 47%) overshadowing an upbeat sales forecast (7-10%, exp. 6.1%). As a result, shares are lower pre-market by 3.7%. For Palantir (-7.9% pre-market), its outlook also disappointed, as it expects Q4 sales that point to a slower rate of growth.
- Click for the session’s European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- G10s are mixed against the USD. The CAD, GBP and CHF are flat, with the latter scaling back some of its earlier outperformance following a hotter-than-expected CPI report. The AUD lags following the RBA’s decision to hike rates by 25bps (as expected), though the Bank did not signal further action.
- DXY is essentially flat and trades within a thin 101.62 to 101.87 range. Action which comes as Americans head to polling stations for the midterms, where a Democratic sweep is likely, according to major prediction market odds. Kalshi assigns a 76% chance of a Dem Senate, and a 94% chance of a Dem House. This outcome would undoubtedly be USD-negative in the short term given the implications for passing policy, slower growth and the increased chance of a government shutdown. Perhaps a more favourable outcome for the USD would be a Dem House and a GOP Senate.
- CHF was initially the outperformer this morning before paring back, following a hotter-than-expected CPI report. Headline Y/Y printed at 1.5% (vs exp. 1.3%), and pertinently above the Bank’s Q4 average forecast of 1.2%; importantly the Core Y/Y metric remains unchanged at 0.5%, evidence that second round effects are yet to enter the Swiss economy. A report which keeps the headline within the SNB’s 0-2% target range, but if the upturn in inflation continues, money markets will likely bring forward rate hike bets towards mid-2027.
- The Aussie is the clear underperformer this morning, in the aftermath of the RBA policy announcement, alongside losses in copper and gold. The Bank hiked its Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected. There were a few hawkish elements from within the release, namely the RBA sees materially higher inflation (as per its latest forecasts), and noted that risks to inflation are to the upside. On the dovish side (and driving the AUD downside), the decision was subject to dissent from three members, who opted to pause rates. Moreover, the Bank refrained from any hawkish guidance; Governor Bullock stated that she will not be offering guidance, adding that it is “probably good to wait now and see incoming data”. Overall, the RBA sounded a bit more cautious than in previous meetings, which has led AUD/USD to trade with losses of c. 0.3%, within a 0.6962 to 0.7003 range.
FIXED INCOME
- A modestly bearish session for the space. USTs are lower by a handful of ticks in 106-21 to 106-27 parameters. In short, we await the start of the US midterms (Newsquawk preview and dashboard available), while on the lookout for any further geopolitical updates after Monday’s limited kinetic action and the commentary from Iran.
- To recap, the US targeted Qeshm Island in a limited strike, aimed at preventing Iran from aggression within the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, sources report that while Qatari mediators were involved in recent days, the Iranian assessment is that a return to war is the most likely scenario; though political figures within Iran are reportedly pushing for a de-escalation.
- Amidst this, EGBs react to the energy upside, posting pressure of about 20 ticks. Pressure that is seemingly a function of the moves seen in global energy benchmarks, and specifically Dutch TTF, which is bid by c. EUR 2/MWh. No reaction to the morning’s ECB speak, which has stuck to the script.
- Gilts, as is often the case, underperform amidst this energy move. Lower by 35 ticks at the time of writing, but some 15 clear of the 85.85 base and holding around the 86.00 handle. UK specifics focused on the government’s EU relationship, ahead of the EU-UK summit, with reports suggesting some progress has been made on various points; however, PM Burnham has clarified that he is not proposing the return of freedom of movement. A point the EU is particularly attached to.
- Germany sells EUR 3.839bln vs. exp. 5bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.4x (prev. 1.1x), average yield 3.14% (prev. 3.2%), retention 23.22% (prev. 33%).
- UK sells GBP 3.25bln 4.625% 2037 Green Gilt: b/c 3.38x (prev. 3.31x), average yield 5.268% (prev. 4.934%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.2bps).
COMMODITIES
- WTI Dec and Brent Jan futures are attempting to trim some of yesterday’s losses, following the 8% slump on Monday, which saw WTI relinquish the USD 100/bbl level. Losses yesterday came amid hopes of diplomacy, although the partial rebound overnight was facilitated by reports of explosions and that the US had attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island. Choppiness was seen this morning amid mixed geopolitical headlines (more below), with WTI now towards the middle of a USD 96.12-98.69/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.15-102.75/bbl range) and Brent in a USD 104.27-107.24/bbl parameter (vs yesterday’s USD 103.28-112.41/bbl range), but closer to the upper end. Dutch TTF has rebounded to around EUR 97.50/MWh from lows of around EUR 94/MWh this morning.
- In terms of geopolitics, there were overnight reports of explosions and that the US had attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island, while the attack was described as small-scale, defensive and aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
- This morning, the geopolitical flurry continued with early-door source reports suggesting that Iran and the US are far from reaching a deal to end the war, while the US’ excessive demands will not be accepted by Iran. Further, Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Monday for talks with Iran, which some reports suggested were positive and that Iran and the US were reviewing the latest suggestions from mediators. It was then reported that Qatari mediators went to Tehran only to receive Iran’s response, not for further discussions, and sources said political figures inside Iran were pushing for de-escalation. Pakistani journalist Mallick mentioned that to his understanding, an agreement to return to the negotiation table between US-Iran is in the works, but not as close as some had suggested.
- Precious metals are weaker as crude rebounds, with spot gold almost wiping out all of yesterday’s gains, while spot silver is now below Monday’s low, all despite a relatively flat USD ahead of the US midterms. Spot gold trades in a USD 3,895-3,964/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 3,874-3,970/oz range). Spot silver underperforms after dipping under yesterday’s USD 49.33/oz low. Analysts at ING “expect gold to regain some ground following its recent correction. But the near-term outlook remains challenging amid expectations for higher rates and a stronger dollar, limiting the scope for a more sustained recovery.”
- 3M LME copper is also on the back foot and under the 14k mark in a current USD 13,896.05-14,286.35/t range at the time of writing.
- Saudi Aramco CEO expects global liquid fuel demand to rise by c. 2.4mln bpd by 2027 and warned energy markets will face pressure this winter. Said the East-West pipeline expansion is underway, China is increasing crude purchases and Aramco remains ready to rapidly increase production if needed. Added that exports resumed within days following attacks on the East-West pipeline.
- ADNOC Gas CEO said gas demand will continue growing in the long term and emphasised the need for more energy and diversified supply.
- Goldman Sachs raised 2027 TTF Average Price Projection to EUR 51/MWh from EUR 44/MWh to reflect a 45% chance of a low-winter-Mideast LNG supply scenario.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- China’s MOFCOM said Vice Minister Li met with a US agricultural trade delegation, with both sides exchanging views on China-US economic and trade relations and agricultural trade cooperation.
- UK and EU agreed a draft deal on removing post-Brexit checks from food and agriculture exports.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- German Chancellor Merz said they need to ensure that the electricity tax is reduced in the 2027 budget, and has some ideas on how to do this while calling for further reductions in air traffic tax.
- Germany’s HDE Lobby Group sees 2026 German Retail Sales +2% in nominal terms, +1% in real terms.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- Swiss CPI (Oct YY) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.0%); Core (Oct YY) 0.5% vs Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%).
- Swiss CPI (Oct MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- RBA raised its Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected, in a 6-3 vote, with three members favouring a hold at 4.60%. RBA noted that inflation remains elevated, with risks still skewed to the upside, and revised its inflation outlook materially higher in its updated staff forecasts, while it stated that inflation is now expected to remain elevated through much of 2027, with the top of the 2-3% target range not reached until late 2027. The Board reiterated its commitment to returning inflation sustainably to target and said monetary policy remains well positioned to respond to developments, while it remains focused on price stability and full employment. It also noted that rate hikes since the start of the year have tightened financial conditions and that output growth is expected to slow further over the coming year, easing capacity pressures and helping inflation return to the target.
- RBA Governor Bullock said the rate hike was needed to bring inflation down and address domestic capacity pressures, with growth needing to remain subdued and unemployment expected to rise further. Inflation is largely baked in for the next year, while the RBA is not forecasting a recession. Additionally, she said it is probably appropriate to wait for incoming data, does not know how high rates will need to go or what the next move will be, and is not providing forward guidance.
- ECB’s Radev said the economic environment is getting more challenging and that the October pause does not mean the tightening cycle is over. Said core inflation is stable, and the energy shock has not passed on to wages.
- ECB’s Moulin said the ECB must prevent inflation from spreading beyond energy.
- SNB’s Schlegel said inflationary pressure in September was slightly higher than in June.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and that could happen, while he added that Iran said even recently that they won’t have a nuclear weapon.
- CIA Director Ratcliffe was reportedly advising US President Trump to maintain the ‘no war, no deal’ status quo and allow the economic pressure campaign to continue, while he said the prolonged economic pain will induce Iran to make more concessions or create enough instability in Iran that citizens revolt, according to sources cited by Axios’s Ravid.
- US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against Iran in recent weeks as President Trump touts the possibility of a diplomatic deal, while the attacks were described as small-scale and defensive, aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by WSJ.
- US source told the Jerusalem Post that the US was behind the attack on Qeshm Island and stated it was a small incident intended for self-defence, while a US official cited by Axios’s Ravid stated that the IRGC fired a missile from Qeshm Island at a US aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night and a US fighter jet then eliminated the surface-to-air launcher in self-defence, with the attack also described as a small incident.
- An agreement for Iran and the US to return to negotiations is reportedly in the works, although a deal is not as close as some suggest, according to journalist Mallick.
- A senior Iranian official said Iran and the US remain far from reaching a deal to end the war despite intensified mediation efforts, Reuters reported. Tehran insisted its conditions must be met before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, with nuclear talks only possible afterwards, and rejected Washington’s “excessive demands”.
- Iran and the US are reportedly reviewing the latest mediator proposals aimed at bridging differences and averting another war, Bloomberg reported. Qatari mediators held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, which were described as positive.
- Qatari mediators reportedly travelled to Tehran solely to receive Iran’s response rather than hold further talks, according to Al Arabiya sources. Iran’s President, Parliament Speaker and Foreign Minister reportedly urged military authorities to respond positively to Qatar’s proposal, although Iranian assessments suggest a return to war is now the most likely scenario.
- Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said mediation efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran are ongoing, with both sides committed to the process. The Qatari delegation has returned to Doha following talks in Tehran, while Gulf countries remain united in seeking to avoid escalation. Said there is still hope for a deal that would pave the way for future negotiations.
- Iranian diplomat Gharibabadi said the exchange of messages through Qatari mediation continues and that a diplomatic agreement is possible if Tehran’s demands are met. He later said that diplomatic talks and message exchanges continue through Qatari mediation, with Iran’s 7-day plan as the basis and an agreement is possible if Tehran’s demands are met, while warning that any official threat to use tactical nuclear weapons would undermine the NPT’s legal framework.
- Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said they are at the highest level of defensive readiness. He added that the ball is in the US’ court, after a strong and rational response was provided to the US. He went on to say that Iran’s armed forces’ response to any enemy miscalculation will be unpredictable and not bound by geographical limits.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran has no hostility towards GCC member states and appreciates the positive role of Qatar and Oman. Will continue talks with Saudi Arabia and aims to establish new regional security arrangements led by regional countries without the presence of foreign militaries.
- Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei rejected a Qatari proposal to establish direct communication between US diplomats and the Iranian delegation that visited Doha, according to Aram News citing sources.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry said that they are now in a state of war following the targeting of Qeshm.
- Iran is said to be ready with a more devastating response to US attacks and has preserved a significant portion of missile and drone capabilities and its weapons production capacity, and is more prepared than before, according to a report cited by IRIB.
- IRGC Navy said three tankers caught fire and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking naval mines in the early hours while travelling through unauthorised routes with navigation and identification systems switched off, IRIB reported.
- Saudi Defence Minister said he discussed de-escalation efforts in the region and the Houthis’ continued attacks during a call with US Secretary of Defence Hegseth.
- Houthi spokesperson said the Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that they did not carry out any operation today towards Saudi territory.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US envoy Witkoff said the US will mediate working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10th-11th and that trilateral talks will cover ending the war and post-war security agreements, as well as de-escalation and aid measures, while he also stated that US officials are to meet this week in Brussels with France, Germany, UK, EU and NATO representatives to discuss Ukraine. Russia’s Kremlin later confirmed the trilateral Ukraine talks.
- US is planning to ask NATO allies to contribute more money to a key weapons-delivery programme for Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia launched a large-scale, coordinated overnight attack targeting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, primarily energy generation facilities and substations.
- Russia said it carried out a large-scale overnight attack on Ukraine’s energy facilities, while it was also reported that an oil refinery in Russia’s Yaroslavl was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack.
- US, Chinese and Russian officials are reportedly in talks regarding a possible trilateral summit between the leaders later in November, according to the FT citing sources. The source added that it remains unclear whether the talks would happen trilaterally, or bilaterally between China-US and China-Russia, while suggesting that the US is pressuring China to agree to a meeting.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin briefly dipped below Monday’s USD 76.55k low to a trough of USD 76.24k, before reversing to a high of USD 77.19k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed following the continued tech rout stateside, where most major indices were negative, and the Nasdaq 100 dipped into a correction, although the majority of US sectors finished in the green and oil prices slumped 8% due to hopes for diplomacy, while demand was contained overnight amid the holiday closure in Japan and cautiousness heading into the US midterm elections.
- ASX 200 was indecisive heading into the RBA announcement, but finished in the green after the central bank hiked rates as expected, with the decision made by a 6-3 vote, while it remained hawkish but stopped short of signalling a December hike.
- KOSPI underperformed following the tech rout stateside and despite the softer-than-expected CPI data, which printed 2.8% vs exp. 2.9%, but remained above the central bank’s medium-term target.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed despite authorities launching a renewed effort to stabilise the stock market, including measures to boost liquidity, cut rates for share buy-back loans and ease curbs on leveraged trading.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC announced it will raise the forex reserve requirement ratio by 2ppts from 4% to 6% effective November 15th, while the measure is aimed at improving the management of foreign currency liquidity in financial institutions.
- China’s CSRC has reportedly instructed investment banks to pause IPOs and large share sales through informal guidance in an effort to support the country’s struggling stock markets, according to the FT citing sources.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 YY) 5.2% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 4.3%).
- Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 QQ) 1.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -0.6%).
- South Korean CPI (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.9%).
- South Korean CPI (Oct MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%).
1 c) Asian opening report
European bourses set for a slightly weaker open; reports suggest that the US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 01:47 AM
- US equity futures were varied ahead of the US midterm elections and with Apple (-2.7%) ultimately declining post-earnings.
- AUD/USD ultimately weakened after the RBA hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.85% via a 6-3 vote but stopped short of signalling another hike in December.
- Crude futures attempted to nurse losses after slumping by around 8% on Monday; 10yr UST futures slightly pulled back after gaining yesterday.
- APAC stocks traded mixed following the continued tech rout stateside; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI (Oct), US JOLTS (Sep), US Midterm Elections. Speakers include BoC’s Macklem & Rogers. Supply from UK & Germany. Earnings from Pfizer, AMD & Super Micro.
SNAPSHOT
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said “No” to striking Iran after elections, according to a Pool Report.
- US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and that could happen, while he added that Iran said even recently that they won’t have a nuclear weapon.
- US President Trump posted: “Oil Prices are DROPPING LIKE A ROCK, down almost $10 a Barrel, A RECORD, because people feel that there will not be a War with Iran. Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!
- US President Trump told N12 News that he is in no hurry to resume the war and that they are crippling Iran’s economy, while he also stated that the Iranian leadership doesn’t have the sense of urgency that he thought there would be, but added that they want a deal more than at any point since the beginning of the war.
- US VP Vance said some progress was made on Iran and will see if we can make some more, while he added they have not set deadlines to resume strikes and had a number of good talks with Iranians.
- CIA Director Ratcliffe was reportedly advising US President Trump to maintain the ‘no war, no deal’ status quo and allow the economic pressure campaign to continue, while he said the prolonged economic pain will induce Iran to make more concessions or create enough instability in Iran that citizens revolt, according to sources cited by Axios’s Ravid.
- US and Iran were reportedly on the verge of a preliminary agreement, with the coming hours to be decisive, according to ILNA citing Al Shanara News Agency.
- A breakthrough in US-Iranian negotiations was reportedly seen after Qatari mediation successfully overcame procedural obstacles, according to Al Jadeed, citing a diplomatic source. The US is reportedly leaning towards not making the nuclear issue a priority and instead including it within the broader negotiation framework, while Washington’s objective is to secure a breakthrough on the nuclear file that President Trump could present to the American public in exchange for concessions on other issues in Iran’s favour.
- Israel’s UN Ambassador Danon said neither Israel nor the US were discussing launching a nuclear strike against Iran, while adding that Israel would support the US resolution on Iran, according to Al Arabiya.
- In Israel, the next two months are reportedly being marked as a ‘window of opportunity’ facing the IDF and the American Central Command for an attack on Iran, according to Kan News.
- Qatari mediators have drafted a three-day sequence of confidence-building measures to resume direct US-Iran talks, and are awaiting feedback from both nations, according to Axios citing sources. It was separately reported that Qatari mediators were travelling to Tehran for talks regarding a potential US-Iran agreement.
- US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against Iran in recent weeks as President Trump touts the possibility of a diplomatic deal, while the attacks were described as small-scale and defensive, aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by WSJ.
- US source told the Jerusalem Post that the US was behind the attack on Qeshm Island and stated it was a small incident intended for self-defence, while a US official cited by Axios’s Ravid stated that the IRGC fired a missile from Qeshm Island at a US aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night and a US fighter jet then eliminated the surface-to-air launcher in self-defence, with the attack also described as a small incident.
- IRGC captured two American MQM-170 drones over Qeshm Island and destroyed the 55th US MQ-9 drone east of the Strait of Hormuz, Press TV reported.
- Iranian state news agency reported that Israeli forces entered Syria’s Quneitra province.
- Saudi Defence Minister said he discussed de‑escalation efforts in the region and the Houthis’ continued attacks during a call with US Secretary of Defence Hegseth.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were mixed as most major US indices fell, driven primarily by a renewed afternoon sell-off in Tech, despite optimism surrounding US-Iran diplomacy, although the majority of sectors finished in the green, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 also gained, highlighting positive market breadth. Tech and energy led the downside, while Health Care and Communication Services also finished lower. Within the tech sector, Oracle (ORCL) came under pressure after announcing a USD 10bln debt offering and USD 10bln equity offering, while Marvell (MRVL) and Lumentum (LITE) both tumbled after MRVL agreed to acquire LITE in a USD 115bln all-stock deal.
- SPX -0.51% at 7,541, NDX -1.39% at 27,990, DJI +0.41% at 51,989, RUT -0.21% at 2,806.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- USTR Greer said Trump had determined that the governments of Rwanda and South Africa were engaging in practices that breached AGOA eligibility criteria.
- South African government said it will support affected sectors and protect national interests, as well as stated that the US remains an important trade and investment partner, while it acknowledged the withdrawal of AGOA benefits and recognised the concern for businesses.
- China’s MOFCOM said Vice Minister Li met with a US agricultural trade delegation, with both sides exchanging views on China-US economic and trade relations and agricultural trade cooperation.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed SLOOS stated that over Q3, banks reported that lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle-market firms were basically unchanged, while standards tightened for C&I loans to small firms.
- US Treasury Financing Estimates (Q4): Projected borrowing of 618bln (vs guided 628bln) in privately held net marketable debt, assuming an end-Dec cash balance of USD 850bln (vs guided 850bln).
- Apple (AAPL) Q4 2026 (USD): EPS 2.10 (exp. 1.99), Revenue 114.5bln (exp. 113.4bln); Net 30.7bln (exp. 29bln); Operating income 35.6bln (exp. 34.6bln); Operating expenses 19.2bln, Products revenue 82.90bln (exp. 81.85bln), iPhone revenue 57.58bln (exp. 56.49bln), Services revenue 31.57bln (exp. 31.58bln), Mac revenue 10.79bln (exp. 9.70bln), iPad revenue 6.23bln (exp. 6.89bln), Wearables, Home & Accessories revenue 8.30bln (exp. 9.00bln), Americas revenue 48.68bln (exp. 48.51bln), Greater China revenue 17.54bln (exp. 18.75bln); Co. shares were down 2.7% after-hours.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mixed following the continued tech rout stateside, where most major indices were negative, and the Nasdaq 100 dipped into a correction, although the majority of US sectors finished in the green and oil prices slumped 8% due to hopes for diplomacy, while demand is contained overnight amid the holiday closure in Japan and cautiousness heading into the US midterm elections.
- ASX 200 was indecisive heading into the RBA announcement, but finished in the green after the central bank hiked rates as expected, with the decision made by 6-3 votes, while it remained hawkish but stopped short of signalling a December hike.
- KOSPI underperformed following the tech rout stateside and despite the softer-than-expected CPI data, which printed 2.8% vs Exp. 2.9%, but remained above the central bank’s medium-term target.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed despite authorities launching a renewed effort to stabilise the stock market, including measures to boost liquidity, cut rates for share buy-back loans and ease curbs on leveraged trading.
- US equity futures were varied ahead of the US midterm elections and with Apple ultimately declining post-earnings despite beating on top and bottom lines, as the iPhone maker’s revenue from China and margin forecasts disappointed.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% on Monday.
FX
- DXY struggled for direction in quiet FX trade and after softening yesterday amid the mixed performances in its major counterparts, while currency-moving catalysts remained light as participants await the US midterm elections and with geopolitical headlines providing mixed signals, as US President Trump stated that a deal with Iran could happen, although it was also reported that the US conducted a small-scale, defensive strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island.
- EUR/USD kept afloat after recent gains but with the single currency remaining beneath the 1.1200 handle.
- GBP/USD eked slight gains in range-bound trade after yesterday’s indecision amid quiet pertinent newsflow, although there were reports that the UK and EU agreed a draft deal on removing post-Brexit checks from food and agriculture exports.
- USD/JPY took a breather after stalling just beneath the 158.00 handle and amid the absence of participants in Japan.
- Antipodeans were mixed, with AUD/USD ultimately weakening after the RBA hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected, through a 6-3 vote, while it remained hawkish and raised CPI forecasts but stopped short of signalling another hike in December. Furthermore, RBA Governor Bullock stated at the post-meeting press conference that she doesn’t know what the next rate move will be and that it is probably good to wait now and see incoming data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7150 vs exp. 6.6489 (prev. 6.7146).
- PBoC announced it will raise the forex reserve requirement ratio by 2ppts from 4% to 6% effective November 15th, while the measure is aimed at improving the management of foreign currency liquidity in financial institutions.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures slightly pulled back after gaining yesterday alongside a slide in oil prices, while demand was contained as cash treasuries trading was shut overnight owing to the holiday closure in Tokyo.
- Bund futures marginally declined as the recent upward momentum stalled ahead of German supply.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures attempted to nurse losses after slumping by around 8% on Monday, with WTI slipping back beneath the USD 100/bbl level amid hopes for diplomacy following a slew of geopolitical headlines, including comments from US President Trump, who responded ‘no’ when asked if he was considering striking Iran after the midterms, while he also stated Iran wants a settlement as soon as possible and that it could happen. Trump was also said to be in no hurry to resume the war, and VP Vance noted that some progress was made on Iran, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that Iran had presented its conditions and plan. Nonetheless, the partial rebound was facilitated by reports of explosions and that the US had attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island, while the attack was described as small-scale, defensive and aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Venezuela’s Foreign Minister and discussed energy and the financial sector.
- Spot gold faded the previous day’s rebound, which had coincided with softer yields and a retreat in oil.
- Copper futures steadily retreated amid the mostly negative sentiment in the region, including in its largest buyer, China.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin traded indecisively and failed to sustain a brief return to above the USD 77,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC Deputy Governor said they will continue to promote transformation of monetary policy framework, while they will enrich the supply of renminbi assets for global investors, and consolidate Hong Kong’s position as an offshore yuan business hub.
- China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng said that economic momentum is shifting to new drivers and building Hong Kong well remains a key strategy, while he views Hong Kong’s five-year plan with utmost confidence and will continue to offer full support for Hong Kong. He also stated they will build a free and open economic environment in Hong Kong.
- RBA raised its Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected, in a 6-3 vote, with three members favouring a hold at 4.60%. RBA noted that inflation remains elevated, with risks still skewed to the upside, and revised its inflation outlook materially higher in its updated staff forecasts, while it stated that inflation is now expected to remain elevated through much of 2027, with the top of the 2–3% target range not reached until late 2027. The Board reiterated its commitment to returning inflation sustainably to target and said monetary policy remains well positioned to respond to developments, while it remains focused on price stability and full employment. It also noted that rate hikes since the start of the year have tightened financial conditions and that output growth is expected to slow further over the coming year, easing capacity pressures and helping inflation return to the target.
- RBA Governor Bullock said the rate rise was needed to get inflation down and that policy tightening is to address local capacity pressures, while she added that growth will need to remain subdued and unemployment is to rise further. Bullock stated some pain now will prevent further pain down the track, as well as stated that she doesn’t know what the next rate move will be and is not offering guidance, but added it is probably good to wait now and see incoming data.
DATA RECAP
- South Korean CPI (Oct MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
- South Korean CPI (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.9%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia said it carried out a large-scale overnight attack on Ukraine’s energy facilities, while it was also reported that an oil refinery in Russia’s Yaroslavl was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack.
- US envoy Witkoff said the US will mediate working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10th-11th and that trilateral talks will cover ending the war and post-war security agreements, as well as de-escalation and aid measures, while he also stated that US officials are to meet this week in Brussels with France, Germany, UK, EU and NATO representatives to discuss Ukraine.
- US is planning to ask NATO allies to contribute more money to a key weapons-delivery program for Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg.
OTHER
- North Korea said it tested a strategic cruise missile on Monday and that the test was of vertical-strike flight characteristics.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK and EU agreed a draft deal on removing post-Brexit checks from food and agriculture exports.
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
JAPAN//
CHINA
Beijing’s Stock Rescue Turns More Desperate: Regulators Reportedly Halt IPOs
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 07:00 AM
China’s version of the “Plunge Protection Team” was back in action on Tuesday.
The Financial Times reports that the securities regulator has instructed investment banks to pause initial public offerings, curbing new equity supply. The reported intervention follows a series of measures aimed at reversing the bear market, suggesting Beijing is increasingly uncomfortable with the stock downturn that began over the summer.
The report says that the China Securities Regulatory Commission delivered informal “window guidance” in meetings with major investment banks over the last few days. The new restrictions would remain in effect until the CSI 300, mainland China’s benchmark index, stabilizes and reverses out of a bear market.
Authorities on Monday announced plans to inject $15 billion through a swap facility. This swap would let brokerages and funds exchange eligible assets for highly liquid central bank assets, increasing their ability to buy equities. State-backed fund purchases of stocks have also occurred, but none have reversed the decline in the CSI 300.
“Chinese regulators reportedly told banks to hold fire on company listings and large share sales in an effort to bolster the country’s struggling stock markets. More sign of coordinated efforts by authorities to stabilize equity market weakness,” UBS markets analyst Jason Cheng wrote in a brief note.
UBS sales trader Lucy Zhang said, “Regulators are encouraging fuller use of the two existing stock-support facilities, which is marginally positive for sentiment and liquidity but it is more about deploying existing policy firepower than fresh stimulus.”
The FT quoted Thomas Mathews, Asia-Pacific head of markets at Capital Economics, who said Beijing’s rescue efforts in stocks were “unlikely to generate a lasting turnaround unless paired with something that addresses the structural challenges more directly.” He said, “That means boosting earnings growth, which in the near term probably means monetary or fiscal support.”
Sam Konrad, investment manager at Jupiter Asset Management, said: “This is an example of why we don’t have a fundamentally positive view on the long-term outlook for Chinese equity markets. It’s a suggestion that Chinese equity markets are reliant on government support to try and boost them.” He added: “Over the long term, Chinese equity markets have been some of the worst-performing equity markets in the world. We think the economic system in China means growth is not translated into earnings growth.”
end
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
Why Are So Many British Teens Being Treated As Terrorists?
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 04:40 AM
Authored by Joanna Williams via Spiked,
What is going on with Britain’s children? Last year, more than 6,000 under-18s were referred to Prevent, the UK government’s counter-terrorism scheme, with a record number reported for being obsessed with mass violence and extremism. Believe the headlines, and we are raising a generation of committed terrorists and murderous nihilists. But scratch beneath the surface, and a far more complex picture of adult failure begins to emerge.
Clearly, some children really are attracted to terrorism and extreme violence. Last week, Yusuf Shah was convicted of providing cybersecurity support to groups including al-Qaeda. He was just 16 when he was arrested at Heathrow Airport and was found to have downloaded instructions for making explosives and using different types of weapons. In 2024, Axel Rudakubana was 17 years old when he entered a dance class in Southport, killing three girls and injuring eight other children and two adults with a kitchen knife. And in 2018, 18-year-old Safaa Boular became Britain’s youngest convicted female Islamic State terrorist after she helped plan an attack on the British Museum in London.
Yet in all three of these cases, these terrorists were either not referred to Prevent, or Prevent failed to ensure their deradicalization. Rudakubana was referred to Prevent three times between 2019 and 2021, but was deemed unsuitable for intervention as officers could find no evidence that he had a fixed ideology or motivation driving his obsession with violence.
One problem for Prevent officers is their rapidly increasing workload. The 6,085 under-18s referred to the scheme in 2025 represent a threefold increase on the 2,129 participants recorded in 2020. In just that one year, the education sector reported 3,129 individuals.
Another problem is that Prevent focuses on the wrong issue. Data from 2025 show that ‘extreme right-wing‘ concerns accounted for 21 per cent of all referrals. This is more than double the proportion of referrals for ‘Islamist extremism’ (10 per cent). What’s more, compared with the previous year, referrals for ‘extreme right-wing’ concerns increased, while referrals for ‘Islamist extremism’ decreased (down from 13 per cent).
Yet this is completely at odds with the reality of the terrorist threats we face in the UK. Since 2001, nearly 100 people have been killed in terrorist attacks in Britain. Fifty-two people were slaughtered in London on 7 July 2005 when Islamist terrorists bombed public transport. In 2017, three separate attacks resulted in multiple deaths at Westminster Bridge, Manchester Arena and London Bridge. Just two people have been killed by right-wing extremists: Mohammed Saleem (2013) and Jo Cox (2016). Prevent officers kept busy dealing with children referred for right-wing extremism have less time to worry about the far more real threat posed by Islamists.
Panic about children, especially boys, being radicalized by right-wing extremists spills over into actual arrests. Figures from UK Counter Terrorism Policing show that one in five of those arrested for terrorism-related offenses is under 18. Earlier this month, a 15-year-old boy was arrested for calling a Conservative councillor a ‘rent boy’. Four police officers in two cars turned up outside the house of the Reform UK activist, despite Reform being a mainstream political party and it not being illegal to call someone a ‘rent boy’. The boy understandably believes he was targeted for his political views and allegiances. If so, then the definition of ‘extremism’ has been stretched so much it is now meaningless.
The completely disproportionate number of teenage boys being referred to Prevent for right-wing extremism betrays the cowardice of adults. It is far easier to panic about children, social media, hate speech and toxic masculinity than it is to name, let alone confront, the real threat of Islamist terrorism. Teachers, social workers and police officers routinely assume that boys with even mainstream right-wing views pose a serious threat to society.
The increase in referrals to Prevent points to adults’ failure to relate to children in ways once taken for granted. It suggests that rather than engaging with young people by talking to them about their opinions and questioning their views, adults hit the panic button and retreat. Rather than being arrested, the 15-year-old schoolboy critical of his local councillor should have had his interest in politics taken seriously. Perhaps the offended councillor could have suggested some good books for him to read instead of calling the police.
The latest Prevent statistics point to other problems with our failure to socialize the next generation. A growing number of children are being referred to Prevent for having a fascination with ‘mass violence unrelated to a political cause’. Following the Southport attack, the government is updating Prevent to enable it to better deal with children who are obsessed with violence, mass shootings and weapons despite having no obvious ideological motive. Clearly, some of these children are mentally ill and need psychiatric treatment rather than anti-radicalization counseling. Prevent is being expected to pick up the pieces when mental-health services fail.
Something else is going on, too. An increasing number of children obsessed with violence, mass shootings and weapons hints at a prevalent sense of nihilism. As we see playing out across France right now, Western nations harbor a proportion of youngsters who feel only contempt for the society they inhabit. They have no sense of allegiance to their country, its history or its institutions. Teachers, journalists, politicians and cultural curators who should have taught children to love their country and respect their fellow citizens have failed in this task.
Referring ever more children to Prevent helps no one. As adults fail in the task of socializing children and raising decent adults, the anti-extremism program has become the institution of last resort, expected to deal with every disaffected or non-conforming teenager. Meanwhile, the role Prevent should be playing in stopping terrorism – which primarily comes from Islamist extremists – is lost to panic and political correctness.
Joanna Williams is a spiked columnist and director of the think tank, Cieo.
END
EUROPE
Europe Under Attack? Far-Left Sabotage UK Military Satellite Equipment Supply Chain
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 04:00 AM
Europe faces growing national security risks from violent far-left groups seeking to destroy capitalism and the continent amid weeks of riots, looting and unrest in France and elsewhere.
The chaos has not yet stopped. There was looting and violence in Germany over the weekend and ongoing unrest in France.
An evolution of the revolution may have emerged overnight, as far-left activists reportedly broke into a defense manufacturer’s facility in the UK and destroyed military satellite communications equipment.
Palestine Action knockoff “People Against Genocide” apparently broke into Ultra Intelligence & Communications’ manufacturing facility in Tring, Hertfordshire.
Video shows these revolutionaries taking sledgehammers to portable satellite terminals that were in production. The Cradle says these terminals were “destined for Israel,” but there is no confirmation of that.
“The action was timed to mark the 109th anniversary of the Balfour Declaration, which paved the way for the colonization of Palestine,” the outlet said.
Three people were arrested after Monday’s break-in, the group’s second raid on the same Tring facility this year. PAG activists broke in on July 9, allegedly causing more than £1 million in damage.
The incident raises serious questions about European elites losing control of their continent as far-left militant networks have accelerated a timeline of chaos and destruction. The communist revolt appears to be evolving toward attacks on critical supply chains.
Earlier this year, Canary Mission warned that Palestine Action created a “Target Map” for its revolutionaries to target Israeli defense-linked supply chains across Europe and North America.
Let’s remind readers that Palestine Action’s US offshoot, Palestine Action US (since renamed Unity of Fields), was co-founded by Calla Mairead Walsh, who once volunteered on campaigns for lefty US politicians, including Ed Markey, Elizabeth Warren and Michelle Wu. The left certainly knows how to foster extremists hell-bent on destroying the West.
END
GERMANY
KORYBKO…
Korybko: Germany’s Attempted Takeover Of Poland By Proxy Is To Prepare Europe For War With Russia
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter,
Just like Nazi Germany seized Czechoslovakia’s gold and its robust military-industrial complex in the run-up to World War II, so too is today’s Germany plotting to seize Poland’s gold and subordinate European NATO’s largest army to Berlin ahead of a possibly upcoming war with Russia by 2030.
Polish conservative firebrand Dominik Tarczyński recently explained liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s attempted judicial coup as being driven by him then wanting to seize control of the Central Bank, introduce the euro, and then finally transfer Poland’s gold to the European Central Bank (ECB) in Germany. As it turns out, Poland has the world’s 10th-largest gold reserves, and its 550 tonnes as of 2026 are more than the ECB’s 506.5. The ECB would therefore more than double its reserves in that scenario.
That’s a significant motivation for what was assessed here to be Germany’s attempted takeover of Poland by proxy through Tusk’s armed seizure of the Constitutional Tribunal with all that could follow. It could also at least temporarily rejuvenate the euro amidst the rapid militarization that most of its members, the vast majority of whom use the euro, are engaging in to prepare for war with Russia by 2030. The bloc’s de facto German leader is far ahead of everyone with a planned €800 billion program.
Poland commands European NATO’s (E-NATO) largest military, and conservative President Karol Nawrocki is opposed to the EU’s “Security Action For Europe” (SAFE) loans that would also obligate that most of the equipment be purchased from the bloc’s members, not Poland’s American and Korean partners. He accordingly proposed the “Polish SAFE 0%” program for 185 billion zloty (~$46 billion), the equivalent of the loan that the EU is extending, which Tusk’s government agreed to despite Nawrocki’s disapproval.
If the ongoing attempted German takeover of Poland by proxy succeeds, and Poland joins the euro prior to more than doubling the ECB’s reserves by transferring all of its gold there, then Germany could much more easily advance its plot of federalizing the EU with itself as the most dominant force therein. Coupled with the rapid militarization of the EU as a whole, with the largest army in E-NATO then subordinated to Germany, the 1941-like threat that Dmitry Medvedev warned about would materialize.
The seizure of the Poland’s gold reserves is central to this scenario, ergo why Tusk is expected to support that through the introduction of the euro if his judicial coup succeeds, and there’s an historical precedent for his suspected German patron to pursue this policy that’s actually against Russia. Hitler seized Czechoslovakia’s gold reserves and its robust military-industrial complex in the immediate run-up to World War II, both of which were considered by historians to be indispensable to his war effort.
Likewise, in the run-up to the EU’s possible clash with Russia by 2030, today’s Germany is attempting to seize Poland’s gold reserves and subordinate the largest army in E-NATO to Berlin in dual moves that would be indispensable in the aforesaid scenario. Unlike back then when Germany led the invasion of the USSR from the front, it might instead task its Polish subordinate with sending Poles to die in Ukraine for perpetuating the NATO-Russian proxy war there or starting another one after the latest conflict ends.
Considering what’s at stake, namely the materialization of another 1941-like threat to Russia brought about by the German-dominated European Federation that could follow Berlin’s attempted takeover of Poland by proxy through Tusk’s judicial coup, Poland’s political crisis is of global significance. Its outcome could mean the difference between war and peace, without any exaggeration, since it’ll shape the post-war European order for years to come.
We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.
END
GERMANY/MIGRANTS
REMIX
“We Want To F**k Leipzig”: Germany Vows Tough Response As Migrant Youths Admit Real Motives Behind Protests
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 06:00 AM
Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix News,
Following clashes with police and looting during the Gen Z protests on Halloween night in Germany, one interviewer attempted to speak with a group of migrant youths in the city of Leipzig about their motivation for protesting.
During the video, they openly admit they want to rob stores, fight police, and “f**k Leipzig” – not for better schools or climate action as organizers are claiming.
In a street interview clip by video journalist Aron Morhoff, young men of migrant background during the nationwide demonstrations stated their motives plainly. One said, “We just want to rob stores.” Another declared, “We want to fight with police officers,” adding, “Everyone’s lying. We want to fight police officers.” He made the comment after another of the youths claimed they were there for better schools.
A third yelled, “We want to f**k Leipzig!”
The youths also linked the protests to Palestine and Gaza, stating multiple times that they wanted to “Free Gaza.”
The motives for protesting also do not appear that different from recent interviews with migrant youths in Belgium following the riots there, where respondents said they did not know why they were protesting and they were simply there to “smash everything.”
These admissions align with the rapid escalation of the Oct.31, 2026, “Gen Z regelt” (“Gen Z takes charge”) protests. What began as largely peaceful daytime marches across roughly 30 to 34 cities, drawing tens of thousands, deteriorated after dark as masked groups took over.
END
POLAND/EU/RUSSIA
Tusk Cries ‘Russian Interference’ As Opposition Pushes No-Confidence Vote For Court Takeover
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 08:50 PM
Recent days have seen Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk thrust into the international spotlight after what’s been widely dubbed a forced takeover of what’s supposed to be an independent top court, the Constitutional Tribunal.
Another key official, Poland’s Supreme Court First President Zbigniew Kapiński, has joined the growing chorus of those condemning Tusk’s actions as tantamount to orchestrating a coup d’état.
“These actions bear the hallmarks of a coup d’état,“ Kapiński declared Monday, in reference to the chaotic events kicked into motion Friday night.
According to more of Kapiński’s remarks as quoted in The Hungarian Conservative:
Kapiński insisted that Bogdan Święczkowski remained the legitimate president of the Tribunal and warned that the government could attempt a similar takeover of the Supreme Court itself. Appointed to his current position by President Karol Nawrocki in May, he argued that nothing comparable had happened since the introduction of martial law in communist Poland.
The Supreme Court chief has also convened an extraordinary General Assembly of judges for Tuesday, 3 November, to discuss threats to Poland’s constitutional order and adopt an official position on the crisis.
When The Economist notes that democracy is being blown up…
Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal is supposed to embody democratic stability, but has spent the past decade as a battleground for fights between populists and liberals. The latest conflict looks like a full-blown constitutional crisis.
The Polish legal system includes several top courts, with the Supreme Court being the highest court of appeal for common civil as well as military courts.
Tusk tripling down…
Instead of backing down, Tusk is vowing to see through the sitting of his judges, which essentially started by force on Friday night:
Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, has vowed to see through a contested overhaul of the country’s constitutional court, declaring that “in certain matters, there can be no compromise”.
In a prime-time television address on Saturday night, Tusk was defiant, despite overnight protests that saw riot police drafted to protect the court’s building, saying the shake-up was vital to restore a tribunal crippled by years of political disputes.
…Defending the action, Tusk said “there was never any doubt that the court in the form imposed by PiS was not a genuine court”, citing adverse rulings from European tribunals.
He went on to reject opposition (as well as some international) outrage as akin to “a thief snatching an elderly woman’s handbag, running off, and when he is caught, he screams that he is subjected to violence.”
And cue Tusk supporters lobbing the ‘Russian interference’ charge to explain their actions…
Tusk further stated: “Let’s call things for what they are: for years, there have been organisations and politicians in Poland who seek to destroy democracy and the rule of law. It is no coincidence they find support among pro-Russian forces globally.”
Could this keep escalating toward more coup-plotting and house-cleaning of political rivals?
The opposition, however, is increasingly vocal in calling for Musk’s government to resign altogether, pushing a broader no-confidence vote.
As a reminder, President Karol Nawrocki after disembarking his plane upon his abrupt return to Warsaw Friday night, had physically attempted to gain entry into the Constitutional Tribunal amid unpredented breaking out at the top legislative and legal review body.
Tusk’s pro-European government has said the suspension is necessary to restore judicial independence, while critics from the opposition have likened it to full-blown and obvious judicial coup.
END
EU/ANOTHER CYBERATTACK
Second Wave Of Cyberattacks Paralyze Supermarket Fridges Across EU, Weeks After Gov’ts Urged Food Stockpiling
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 08:30 AM
Cyberattacks disrupted supermarket refrigeration systems across Sweden, Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland and Estonia on Monday morning, forcing retailers to discard spoiled food and exposing the last mile of the food supply chain to major disruptions. The cyberattacks came just weeks after governments urged households to maintain emergency food supplies.
Reuters reports that supermarket chains Ahold Delhaize and Colruyt reported cyberattacks affecting critical refrigeration systems in Belgium and Luxembourg. Carrefour said 15 Belgian stores were impacted, while Irish wholesaler Musgrave said refrigeration systems at 13 SuperValu locations were affected.
“There has been a cyberattack and all our freezers reached 50 degrees (Celsius),” Engla Ingwall, sales manager at an ICA franchise store in Stockholm, told the outlet. Ingwall said the attack occurred around 0200 local time.
Stephan Moelans, chief executive of Belgian refrigeration company Sabcobel, which operates Delhaize’s systems, told the news outlet Belga that attackers switched refrigeration evaporators into defrost mode.
The cyber incidents follow an attack in France last month, when hackers seized control of cooling units at hundreds of supermarkets, causing high food losses. The similarities suggest that the earlier attack was a pilot run for broader chaos.
Let’s not forget the cyber incidents came weeks after governments in Europe, the US, and Australia urged folks to stockpile food. Those advisories did not identify a specific imminent threat.
Targeting refrigeration systems at supermarkets can quickly destroy perishable foods and disrupt food availability. The pattern here is that saboteurs have an objective of causing mass chaos, but not through kinetic means; rather, by attacking the food supply chain. This builds on weeks of a communist revolution in France that has spread to surrounding countries.
END
EU/NATURAL GAS LEVELS
The Chart That Should Terrify Brussels: EU NatGas Reserves Could Crater By Winter’s End
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 08:00 AM
Diplomatic signals between the US and Iran ahead of the US midterms sent Brent crude and European natural gas futures tumbling on Monday, but the relief rally has done little to resolve Europe’s energy crisis ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Alarmingly low NatGas storage levels at the start of the withdrawal season leave the energy-stricken continent with a very thin supply buffer, increasing its dependence on global LNG markets and its exposure to cold blasts, supply disruptions and price spikes.
Germany’s 15-year average for this time of year stands at around 91%.
At this point, Brussels and its climate cult had better hope that, after years of pushing a false narrative of global warming, it comes true. Perhaps El Niño might help with that.
On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency released a new report that warned Europe is entering winter with its lowest NatGas inventories since 2013.
The report warned:
EU gas storage sites are entering the 2026/27 heating season with inventories at their lowest levels since 2013. This leaves a reduced buffer against supply disruptions for the European market and could further increase the region’s reliance on global LNG supplies to meet winter demand.
Low European storage levels, combined with limited storage options in several LNG importing countries in Asia and South America, could intensify the competition for a scarce number of flexible LNG cargoes in the coming months and put upward pressure on spot prices, especially during periods of high demand.
IEA forecasted the EU NatGas storage levels could drop to a crisis low of 10% by the end of winter:
IEA simulations indicate that EU gas storage levels could drop below 10% of working capacity by the end of March 2027, assuming colder-than-average weather conditions and continued disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
This would leave the European market particularly exposed to events, whether additional cold snaps, technical outages or other supply disruptions, since the rate at which gas can be withdrawn from storage sites tends to decline once fill levels fall below 30% of working capacity.
Moreover, low storage levels would substantially increase the need for injections through summer 2027, potentially extending market tightness into the following year.
The halt of Russian NatGas supplies and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has put Brussels in a dangerous spot and serves as a welcome reminder for US observers of just why energy independence is so critical for nations.
European NatGas trades at roughly 11 times the US price.
European globalist elites who’ve gambled in all the wrong ways with “green” policies, destroying their nuclear power capacity and declaring war on fossil fuels, are set to reap what they’ve sown with one terrible energy policy after another.
The end result: the industrial base gets whacked, and working-poor consumers get financially walloped in their pocketbooks. And now you know why Nomura analysts have Europe “lurching right” over the next year and a half or so of elections.
END
5.RUSSIA AND ISRAEL AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFIARS
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA /MONDAY NIGHT
US Attacks Iran’s Qeshm Island On Election Eve
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 08:18 PM
Summary
- US bombs Qeshm Island on Monday: confirmation comes after a series of explosions were heard in the region.
- Trump Delays Iran Decision: Trump says he is in no rush to resume strikes, favoring more time for diplomacy despite Netanyahu’s reported push for renewed military action.
- Ayatollah Signals Openness to Talks: Supreme Leader authorizes dialogue with Washington as Qatari mediation reportedly makes progress toward a draft agreement.
- Faster Hormuz Reopening on the Table: Iran says it could reopen the Strait within two days if Washington accepts its demands, including lifting the US blockade.
- Oil Prices Tumble: Hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough send Brent toward $106 and WTI below $100, triggering a broader risk-on market rally.
- Supply Risks Persist: Nearly 1 billion barrels have reportedly been drained from global inventories, leaving oil and diesel markets vulnerable to renewed escalation.
Trump Bombs Qeshm Island
Since Sunday into Monday, Iran headlines were driven by a return to ‘peace talks imminent’ claims, pushing down oil prices; however, late in the day we learn via official channels speaking to The Wall Street Journal that President Trump just bombed Qeshm Island earlier the same day.
This bold and risky act came right on the eve of the midterm elections, at a moment the war remains deeply unpopular with voters. But interestingly, Trump didn’t openly announce the attack, like with some prior escalations and bombings.
“The U.S. attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, U.S. officials said, in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against the country in recent weeks as President Trump touted the possibility of a diplomatic deal,” WSJ writes. The paper further underscores that he spent the whole day signaling there won’t be a renewed bombing campaign against Iran any time soon:
The assault follows comments by Trump playing down the possibility of a return to war with Iran after Tuesday’s midterm elections.
“We had a war with Iran. We won,” Trump told reporters Monday. “I don’t know if you even call it a war because we haven’t been doing any fighting for months.”
But the U.S. has been engaged in smaller-scale strikes against Iran for several weeks, officials said, with explosions reported around Qeshm island on Monday on social media. Some of the officials described the assaults as defensive in nature to prevent Iran from having the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. .
So there’s clearly a political reason for the administration not officially reporting such strikes. It would certainly negate any attempt to portray de-escalation in the conflict.
“The U.S. has been purposefully keeping the campaign quiet so as not to signal any intention of resuming major combat operations,” one official speaking to the Journal says.
Trump Says ‘No Rush’ on Renewing Iran War
On midterm election eve, President Trump is seeking to appear confident and is trying to reassure voters. He told Axios in a phone interview published Monday afternoon that he’s “in no rush” to decide whether to resume attacks on Iran.
There’s lately been an avalanche of speculation saying that he’s likely to order a new bombing campaign soon after the midterm vote on Tuesday. There are also reports saying that Israel’s Netanyhu is strongly lobbying for renewing the war. Of course, Trump knows the war is deeply unpopular with the average voter (on both sides of the aisle) right now, and so the obvious attempts at ‘calming’ the populace…
Trump told Axios that “it’s coming together nicely, that’s why oil is down” – in reference to indirect negotiations being mediated by Qatar. 
He also indicated that Iran asked to stop killing its leaders, to which he responded, “we will” – in his accounting of recent messaging.
Vance also weighs in…
Iran’s Supreme Leader Floats More US Talks In Rare Overture
Oil is tumbling in the wake of a somewhat rare headline out of Tehran:
- Iranian President Pezeshkian says the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue, ISNA reports
- OIL FALLS TO INTRADAY LOW, BRENT TRADES NEAR $106/BBL
- Oil prices down 6% on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy
This marks some of the most significant confirmation yet that the Supreme Leader – who has been in hiding and not seen in public since the assassination of his father upon the opening of Operation Epic Fury – is still ‘open’ to a negotiated solution to the war. It has long been speculated that he and the more ‘hardline’ IRGC and affiliated officials are against talks and are preparing for war.
Meanwhile, more Monday reporting of ‘breakthroughs’ via regional sources – and the possibility that Washington might give up on isisting the nuclear enrichment issue be resolved…
A breakthrough in US-Iranian negotiations was seen after Qatari mediation successfully overcame procedural obstacles, reports Al Jadeed citing a diplomatic source
- The US is leaning towards not making the nuclear issue a priority and instead including it within the overall negotiation framework.
- Washington’s priority is achieving a breakthrough in the nuclear file, which Trump would present to the American people, in exchange for concessions on other issues in favor of Iran.
- There are fears that Netanyahu will succeed in undermining the breakthroughs in the US-Iranian negotiations and pushing the region towards escalation and war.
- Any US-Iranian agreement will inevitably have repercussions for Lebanon, while any war on Tehran would be fateful and would push Hezbollah to enter it.
- Implementing any agreement on Lebanon requires Israel’s conditional approval, which is contingent upon Hezbollah’s disarmament and the dismantling of its military apparatus; otherwise, Israel will launch a war to achieve its objectives.
Presdient Trump too has signaled he wants to give diplomacy more time, amid reports that Israel’s Netanyahu is lobbying for more military action.
Newsquawk notes of the immediate reaction in markets: Risk-on trade seen as reports Iran’s Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue got wider airing; downside in oil and the Dollar, with upside in US equity futures, Treasuries and spot gold.
Earlier in the morning a report in the NY Post included some of the details related to ongoing indirect dialogue:
- Earlier, sources said Iranian negotiators left the Doha talks on Sunday, but not due to difficulties in negotiations, with a draft proposal circulated for feedback and a follow-up meeting possible. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei also said the compression of Tehran’s seven-day proposal into two days is a sign of goodwill and that “America must make a decision”, which added modest pressure to the complex.
- It was also reported earlier today that Iran had reportedly conveyed seven conditions to Qatar for reaching an agreement with Washington, including lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports, according to Kyodo citing a senior Iranian official. Tehran is said to be willing to adopt a flexible position on nuclear issues if an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is reached, although significant differences remain as the US seeks simultaneous nuclear concessions.
Still, time is running out and Trump is threatening to “bring the hammer” on Iran; however, there’s still no articulated end game or what a ‘misson accomplished’ moment might look like, amid fears that Washington could be settling in for another ‘forever war’ – despite ‘assurances’ from admin officials like JD Vance.
Still no ‘direct’ talks on the horizon:
Crude Prices Tumble
Brent crude futures fell to $108.41 a barrel, while WTI slipped below $100 this morning, after Axios reported that President Trump favored giving diplomacy with Tehran more time before launching another round of “Epic Fury.” Separately, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the Trump administration accepts its demands.
“Oil prices eased on Monday, with Brent down 2.8% at about $110/bbl and WTI down 3.3% at $100.67/bbl, as hopes for diplomatic progress tempered the geopolitical premium embedded in crude following October’s rally. Iranian and Qatari officials have held three consecutive days of talks aimed at ending the conflict with the US and Israel,” UBS markets analyst Nana Antiedu wrote in a brief note earlier today.
Brent’s Friday gains have been erased ahead of the US session. There were other reports that Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he wanted diplomacy with Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that no decision had been made on new attacks on Iran and that Trump preferred a diplomatic resolution.
Tehran: Shortened Timeline to Reopen Strait if Agreement Reached
Earlier today, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei was quoted by Bloomberg as saying that Tehran was ready to reopen the Hormuz maritime chokepoint in two days if the Trump administration was willing to agree to its conditions.
“The possibility of implementing this plan in two days is another indication of Iran’s good-faith approach,” Baqaei said, adding, “We have stated that, if Iran’s demands are met, it would be possible to restore security to the Strait of Hormuz and resume the negotiating process within a short period.”
The spokesman said that an exchange of messages was ongoing with US counterparts via mediators and that “everything depends” on the US side accepting the Iranian demands. “Only then can we discuss the subsequent stages.”
Despite the diplomatic signals, which can change at a moment’s notice, UBS’s Antiedu warned that global oil supply buffers are “wearing thin.”
Antiedu added more color:
The pullback comes against an increasingly fragile supply backdrop. ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber said nearly 1 billion barrels have been drained from global oil inventories since the conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports. Diesel inventories in some markets are at 35-year seasonal lows, while shipping and logistics costs have risen from roughly 5% to 30% of the cost of a barrel.
Separately, June Goh, a senior oil-market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that diesel is the “most distressed” fuel product heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter. She noted that spare refining capacity is mostly concentrated in China, where authorities continue to control fuel exports.
Goldman Sachs analysts earlier raised their Brent forecast to $105 a barrel for December and an average of $88 next year. They noted, “The Mideast and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, alongside broader geopolitical fragmentation, create high disruption risk.“
END
Was October The Peak Of Hormuz Ship Attacks?
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 05:20 AM
A renewed diplomatic push between the Trump administration and Tehran ahead of the US midterms sent Brent and WTI futures spiraling lower yesterday.
The selloff comes despite a record number of commercial ship attacks in the Gulf waters during October. Rather than choking off crude shipments through Hormuz, Iran’s repeated attacks on tankers and cargo ships did quite the opposite, suggesting Tehran’s leverage in the maritime chokepoint has somewhat eroded.
UniCredit investment strategist Tobias Keller shared a chart with clients earlier today showing last month’s record number of ship attacks in Hormuz, which topped 35.
“Maritime security in the Gulf has deteriorated in recent weeks. A record number of attacks on commercial vessels in October is testing the recovery in oil flows and keeping geopolitical risk elevated across the region, suggesting that a return to pre-war market conditions may take longer than previously assumed,” Keller said.
Keller said that physical supplies have recovered to at least 80% of pre-war levels through the Hormuz chokepoint, with some estimates showing a much larger rebound on alternative routes, including Saudi shipments through the Red Sea.
“Producers and shipowners have maintained exports through rerouting and more complex logistics, reducing the risk of an immediate supply shock. But this resilience has come at a price. Shipping is more expensive and less predictable, while strained product markets and depleted inventories leave the market with little capacity to absorb another major disruption. The eventual rebuilding of stocks could also support demand even as supply conditions improve,” the analyst said.
Keller’s view of what’s next:
The political outlook is harder to read.
The conduct of the parties involved offers little basis for confident predictions. Recent Qatari-mediated talks have raised hopes of progress towards a settlement, but markets may still face another period of heightened volatility with the US midterm elections approaching, particularly if the political calendar triggers renewed escalation or causes further delays in diplomacy.
While uncertainty remains considerable, our baseline continues to envisage a prolonged but contained conflict, with Gulf exports continuing despite persistent regional tensions.
Under that scenario, oil prices should gradually move lower over time as flows become more dependable and some of the geopolitical premium recedes.
Yet October’s record number of attacks suggests that this adjustment will be slower and more volatile than previously envisaged. And even a credible ceasefire would not immediately restore production, shipping patterns or inventories.
The recovery in exports has provided some reassurance over near-term supply, but fragile security and tight fundamentals suggest that a return to pre-war market conditions will probably take longer than previously assumed.
The record surge in ship attacks on the Hormuz last month could’ve been the peak of chaos if diplomatic progress continues, as the latest from Iran’s state-run media outlet IRNA says that the Iranian Supreme Leader has granted the government authority for peace talks.
END
ISRAEL, USA/IRAN/TUESDAY
IRGC Claims 3 More Tankers Blown Up By Naval Mines In Hormuz
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 08:15 AM
Iran has said that three more tankers exploded and are on fire Tuesday after hitting naval mines while transiting through Strait of Hormuz without permission.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) described that the ships had turned off their geolocation tracking systems as they crossed the southern part of the Strait. No casualties have yet to be reported. Also on Tuesday the IRGC claimed to have shot down two US Lucas drones over the coastal area of Bandar Khamir.
This comes atter the US reportedly struck Iran’s Qeshm Island late Monday, amid broader revelations that the Pentagon has been waging ‘limited’ strikes along Iran’s southern coast for the past weeks.
American officials have called the overnight Monday assault on Qeshm ‘defensive’ and aimed at preventing Tehran from threatening vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz
Axios has presented this narrative based on US administration sources: “The IRGC fired a missile from Qeshm island at a U.S. aircraft in the strait of Hormuz on monday night. The U.S. fighter jet then eliminated the surface-to-air launcher in self defense, a U.S. official said.”
If accurate, this demonstrates that the Iranians have likely been firing at US military assets patroling the Strait of Hormuz this whole time – even if it doesn’t get media coverage.
The Wall Street Journal has noted, “Unlike earlier in the war, the U.S. hasn’t publicly announced the attacks.”
“The U.S. has been purposefully keeping the campaign quiet so as not to signal any intention of resuming major combat operations, one official said.
That all of this is only belatedly coming out now seems politically-timed, given that on Tuesday Americans go to the voting booths for the midterm elections, amid strong expectations that Democrats could take both the House and Senate.
Meanwhile, Reuters in a fresh Tuesday report says what everyone already knows: “Iran and the United States are still far from a deal to end their war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday, while mediator Qatar stepped up efforts to bridge differences and avert a renewed escalation after the US midterm elections.”
Qatar’s Foreign Ministery spokesperson has said, “If there were no glimmer of hope, there would be no negotiations.. and as a mediator, we cannot lose hope.”
The official added: “The mediators came up with a new suggestion to move the process along, and it’s currently being studied by the two sides.”
END
LATE MORNING:
US-Iran Reportedly Agree To Concessions On Nuclear File, Oil Plunges
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 08:37 AM
Update(0835ET): US-Iran headlines are once again swinging between mediator proposals and Tehran declaring it is “now in a state of war” after the Qeshm strike – which is a sadly all too familiar pattern from this past summer. The latest from regional sources are seeing oil prices drop lower:
- “Washington has approved the draft memorandum of understanding that the Qatari delegation presented to Iran yesterday”, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reports citing sources close to the mediation team.
- “Washington and Tehran have made concessions regarding the Iranian nuclear program and frozen funds”, Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.
Futures surge…
END
THEN
IRAN VS USA
Iran Rejects Latest Draft Proposal To End War: US ‘Must Act On 7 Conditions’ To Reopen Hormuz
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 09:29 AM
Iranian Rejection: Adhere to Our Seven Conditions
As expected, a quick denial to the earlier headlines from Tehran… Top-ranking national security official Mohsen Rezaee states Tuesday:
America’s response to Iran’s rights and demands was not convincing, and they must fully and explicitly address Iran’s seven conditions and act upon them; only in this case will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened.
Rezaee further reitarted that Iran will not compromise on its sevel conditions, which also appears a rejection of earlier Gulf-sourced reporting which had signaled some level of a break through in direct talks.
“We have repeatedly stated; the seven conditions announced by Iran must be fulfilled. If the conditions are met, the path of diplomacy will be open,” Rezaee wrote on X (machine translated. “In response, if any action is taken against the country, in accordance with the Supreme Leader’s directive today to the armed forces, we will deliver devastating blows to the aggressor using new weaponry.” On the headline…
OIL PARES LOSSES, BRENT TRADES NEAR $103.50 A BARREL
US-Iran Reportedly Agree To Concessions On Nuclear File, Oil Plunges
US-Iran headlines are once again swinging between mediator proposals and Tehran declaring it is “now in a state of war” after the Qeshm strike – which is a sadly all too familiar pattern from this past summer. The latest from regional sources are seeing oil prices drop lower:
- “Washington has approved the draft memorandum of understanding that the Qatari delegation presented to Iran yesterday”, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reports citing sources close to the mediation team.
- “Washington and Tehran have made concessions regarding the Iranian nuclear program and frozen funds”, Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.
WTI is back at its lowest level in three weeks…
Futures surged on the return to ‘optimism’ – even if briefly…
President Trump issues some fresh remarks in a Fox interview by phone:
3 Tankers Exploded After Hitting Naval Mines: IRGC
Iran has said that three more tankers exploded and are on fire Tuesday after hitting naval mines while transiting through Strait of Hormuz without permission.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) described that the ships had turned off their geolocation tracking systems as they crossed the southern part of the Strait. No casualties have yet to be reported. Also on Tuesday the IRGC claimed to have shot down two US Lucas drones over the coastal area of Bandar Khamir.
END
IRAN VS USA ET AL
US Gulf Allies Prepare For Heavy US Bombardment Of Iran And Iranian Retaliation; Report
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 12:30 PM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via Antiwar.com,
The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that the US’s Gulf Arab allies are preparing for heavy US strikes against Iran that they expect to provoke major Iranian retaliation against their infrastructure.
The report said that the Gulf states believe that the US attacks could come as early as this week. President Trump has made clear that he’s considering restarting the bombing campaign after Tuesday’s midterm elections.
The Journal report said that governments in the region, including the UAE and Qatar, have been running security drills at airports and other facilities to prepare for the potential major escalation. Saudi Arabia is already facing heavy attacks against its airports and oil infrastructure from Ansar Allah in Yemen, a war Riyadh reignited in July by bombing the Sanaa International Airport.
Amid the threats of escalation, some Gulf Arab states have been scrambling to find a diplomatic solution, but three days of talks between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators held over the weekend didn’t result in a breakthrough. During the talks, Iran said it was willing to open the Strait of Hormuz if the US agreed to its conditions, but there’s no sign that the Trump administration is willing to do so.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Monday that Tehran remains open to a diplomatic solution, but it depends on the US’s position.
“We have presented our conditions and proposal, and everything depends on Washington’s political wisdom. If they choose genuine diplomacy, we are ready to engage. But if they intend to deceive us and launch military operations, they will face a response more bitter and more severe than before,” Araghchi said.
END
ISRAEL TBN
END
END
SYRIA/ISRAEL/USA SAUDI ARABIA-MECCA DEFENSE PACT:
Syria Says It’s Considering Joining Saudi-Led Mecca Defense Pact
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 06:30 PM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, a former al-Qaeda member, said on Saturday that Damascus was considering joining the Mecca defense pact, the new military alliance between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey.
“Discussions are currently underway to evaluate Syria’s entry into the Mecca alliance,” al-Shaibani said at the Manama Dialogue conference in Bahrain.
Al-Shaibani’s comments come several weeks after several media outlets reported that Syria was considering sending troops to Yemen to help Saudi Arabia fight Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis.
The Syrian government denied the reports and said its plan is to focus on Syria’s internal situation, but the country’s potential membership in the Mecca defense pact could draw it into the war.
Both Pakistan and Turkey have pledged support for Saudi Arabia’s war, though so far there’s no indication that they are aiding in offensive operations against Ansar Allah.
Axios reported that Syria’s potential Yemen deployment could specifically include a military unit known to be full of foreign jihadists who previously fought under the umbrella of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the al-Qaeda offshoot that took power in December 2024 after the ousting of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Like Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, al-Shaibani was a founding member of the al-Nusra Front, Syria’s al-Qaeda affiliate that became HTS when it rebranded to gain more international support in the war against Assad.
According to a February 2025 Pentagon Inspector General report, al-Shaibani managed the group and oversaw its transition into HTS.
END
ISRAEL
Eisenkot gets opposition backing as leaders vow to form emergency gov’t ‘as soon as possible’
Parties pledge to begin coalition negotiations immediately, replace Knesset speaker next week • Bennett says bloc must act urgently to replace Netanyahu’s government
(L-R clockwise) Yashar party head Gadi Eisenkot, Democrats head Yair Golan, B’Yachad head Naftali Bennett, Yisrael Beytenu head Avigdor Liberman, B’Yachad deputy Yair Lapid.(photo credit: YAIR LAPID’S OFFICE)By
NOVEMBER 3, 2026 11:27Updated: NOVEMBER 3, 2026 14:12
Israel’s opposition party leaders agreed to work toward forming a “national emergency government” as soon as possible, saying they would act immediately to do so in a joint statement following a meeting on Tuesday.
The leaders of the opposition bloc seeking to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met for the first time since the election, amid disagreements and a political deadlock between the two blocs, with no clear path toward forming a government.
Those attending the Herzliya meeting included prime ministerial candidate Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar), Naftali Bennett (B’Yachad), Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beytenu) and Yair Golan (the Democrats), along with outgoing opposition leader Yair Lapid, who holds the second slot on the B’Yachad Knesset slate.
The leaders said they were committed to honoring what they described as a clear voter mandate for change and against the continued tenure of the current government, which they referred to as the “October 7 government.”
“The party leaders are in agreement on the need to establish a Zionist government based on the four principles set out by Eisenkot, as soon as possible,” the statement said. The Yashar leader outlined the four principles on Saturday.https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=4115997&url=www.jpost.com
Former prime minister and opposition leader Yair Lapid speaks to reporters upon arriving at a meeting of bloc leaders on November 3, 2026. (Credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI)
The statement added that the parties’ negotiating teams would begin working immediately to formulate the government’s guiding principles and the agreements for the formation of the 38th government, and to “put the clear parliamentary majority in the Knesset to work.”
The party leaders also agreed that all five parties would recommend to President Isaac Herzog that the Yashar chairman receive the first mandate to form a government, with the aim of establishing a new government as quickly as possible and avoiding another election.
Bennett: Eisenkot has opposition’s full backing to form gov’t ‘as soon as possible’
In a statement given following the meeting, former prime minister Bennett said Eisenkot had the opposition’s full backing to “act as quickly as possible to establish a Zionist government of repair,” arguing that the bloc needs to act “with great urgency.
“We have no time. We need to act with great urgency. Therefore, as soon as possible, we will take control of the Knesset, secure the mandate to form a government, and act as quickly as possible to establish a Zionist government of repair in order to bring about a revolution for those who serve and begin repairing the country,” Bennett said.
Prior to the meeting, B’Yachad deputy Lapid also stressed the need for the opposition bloc to form a government.
“We are facing a serious and dangerous attempt to undermine the election results. We must form a government,” he said. Netanyahu’s Likud has alleged in recent days that there was election interference and that the Arab parties had “stolen” the election.
“The events of the past few days are just another reminder that we need to remove Netanyahu from the Prime Minister’s Office,” Lapid added.
Victims and family members of those killed in the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks arrived outside the meeting of party leaders to demand that they form a government to replace Netanyahu.
“You have a mandate. Do not lend a hand to legitimizing the leaders who were at the helm during the October 7 massacre. Establish a change government,” they stated.
“The people voted no confidence in the October 7 government and gave 67 seats to the demand for change. You have received a mandate. Do not waste it on compromises that would legitimize those who were at the helm on October 7,” they added.
The meeting comes amid numerous disagreements between the party leaders, although all have agreed to recommend Eisenkot, whose party won the most seats within the opposition bloc, to President Isaac Herzog as the candidate to form the next government.
Consultations at the President’s Residence are set to begin on Wednesday. By law, the president is required to consult the Knesset factions before deciding who receives the task of forming a government.
Golan has called on the opposition party leaders to form a government with the Arab parties – Ra’am and the Joint List – who won a record-breaking 19 seats combined in the elections. With Arab parties, the opposition bloc would have a Knesset majority of 67 seats.
However, Liberman reiterated on Tuesday ahead of the meeting that a coalition with the Arab parties was not an option. Bennett had also drawn a red line ahead of the elections against forming a government with the Arab parties.
Political deadlock could lead to another election
The opposition bloc lacks the required 61-seat Knesset majority without the support of the Arab parties. The election results showed that Netanyahu’s bloc maintained its lead, securing 53 seats in the next Knesset, while the opposition bloc won 48.
The political deadlock could ultimately lead to another election, although the parties may still reach an agreement through coalition negotiations. Other possible outcomes include a unity government between Netanyahu and members of Eisenkot’s bloc, or a minority government.
Liberman also said on Monday that he opposed both a minority government and a unity government with Netanyahu.
Meanwhile, the Arab parties have expressed willingness to cooperate with the opposition bloc to replace Netanyahu.
The meeting between the opposition party leaders also comes amid debate regarding who to select as the candidate to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, who is a member of Netanayhu’s Likud.
Opposition party leaders have reportedly agreed that their first move after the new Knesset is sworn in on November 10 would be to oust Ohana.
The move would require a majority in a Knesset vote and could be achievable with the support of the Arab parties, bringing the potential backing to 67 seats.
Replacing Ohana would give the opposition bloc greater control over the parliamentary agenda, including votes, legislation, and committee appointments, even if Netanyahu remains in office as head of a caretaker government.
The Knesset is expected to be sworn in on November 10, regardless of any government or coalition talks.
END
ISRAEL USA//
Trump To Cut Off $4B Annual Israel Aid By Year-End, Jokes He’d Move There To Become PM ‘If People Got Tired Of Me’
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 11:15 AM
President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that the United States will end its nearly $4 billion in annual military aid to Israel by the end of the year, saying he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the cutoff months ago. Trump argued Israel no longer needs the assistance and that the annual payment had become an easy political target for critics on the left.
“Bibi Netanyahu and I have made a deal,” Trump said. “We give Israel $4 billion a year, and we made a deal months ago that we’re stopping – and they’re fine with it.“
Arguing that the longtime U.S. ally has outgrown the need for direct taxpayer subsidies, Trump added: “They’ve become a very successful country. They don’t need it. And we won’t be paying anymore.”
Trump even joked about a backup political career in Jerusalem if American voters ever grew tired of him:
From Aid to Cash-Only Weapons Sales
While the proposed cutoff would halt direct financial grants, it would not restrict Israel’s access to the American defense industry. “They can buy whatever they want,” Trump said, while noting that Washington would still step in with emergency aid if Israel genuinely needed it.
Under a 10-year memorandum of understanding negotiated by the Obama administration and appropriated annually by Congress, the U.S. currently provides Israel with $3.8 billion a year in military assistance through 2028.
However, Trump’s abrupt year-end deadline accelerates the timetable far beyond what Israeli leadership previously envisioned. In May, Netanyahu told CBS that he wanted to phase out U.S. financial support gradually over the next decade:
“It’s time that we weaned ourselves from the remaining military support, and go from aid to partnership.”
Of note, in May Netanyahu floated the idea of weaning Israel off US military support ‘within a decade,’ telling 60 Minutes “I want to draw down to zero the American financial support, the financial component of the military cooperation that we have.”
In July, the GOP-led House defeated a Democrat bid to end Israel aid.
Defusing an Election-Day Target
According to Trump, it was Netanyahu himself who suggested the shift – a move Trump explicitly framed as a way to neutralize domestic criticism of U.S. foreign aid as voters head to the polls for the midterms.
“The left uses the $4 billion payment – that everybody knows about, it’s no secret – as a signal of unfairness, and we can’t allow that to happen,” Trump said. “I don’t like that, because, you know, it’s too easy. It’s almost too easy a target.”
Polling throughout the year shows measurable erosion in support for Israel among conservatives, particularly younger ones, even as the core MAGA base remains relatively firm. A May 2026 Pew Research analysis found that only 43 percent of Republicans aged 18–34 view the Israeli people favorably, compared with 79 percent of those 50 and older; a majority of Republicans under 50 now hold unfavorable views of Israel overall. Chicago Council on Global Affairs data from 2026 recorded a drop in Republican thermometer ratings of Israel (from 69 in 2022 to 62), with MAGA Republicans still more positive (67) than non-MAGA Republicans (55), and younger Republicans rating the country substantially lower than older cohorts.
On aid, an Economist/YouGov poll showed 69 percent of MAGA supporters still favor maintaining or increasing U.S. military assistance to Israel (with only 8 percent wanting it stopped entirely), while other surveys have found majorities of younger Republicans open to reducing or ending weapons transfers. Support for the Iran war is more resilient within the Republican coalition: a July 2026 Chicago Council survey found 63 percent of Republicans (and 77 percent of MAGA Republicans) saying the war has been worth the costs, in contrast to large majorities of Democrats and independents who say it has not. These figures indicate a clear generational and intra-party softening on Israel itself, with more limited but real divisions on the broader Iran conflict.
Of note, scrutiny over Washington’s blank-check support has intensified across the political spectrum since Israel launched its military campaign in Gaza following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. In battleground Michigan, Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed has campaigned heavily on redirecting that money to domestic priorities. Skepticism has also gained traction among populist Republicans, though the House rejected a largely symbolic measure in July that would have blocked all military aid to Israel.
The announcement arrives at a volatile moment in the region. The war against Iran – launched jointly by the U.S. and Israel in late February (technically the US did it at Israel’s request) – is now entering its ninth month, driving up global energy prices and compounding the cost-of-living pressures dominating the midterm elections.
While Washington and Tehran have stepped up backchannel diplomacy in recent days to avert another round of all-out war, friction remains behind the scenes: Bloomberg, citing reporting from Axios, noted that Netanyahu has been pressuring Trump to resume strikes on Iran as soon as the elections are over.
END
SAUDI ARABIA VS HOUTHIS
Taking The Houthis At Their Word: The Bill Saudi Arabia Doesn’t Want To Read
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Larry C. Johnson via Sonar21,
Riyadh has a simple method for dealing with Houthi claims. It announces that its air defenses intercepted something, says nothing about everything else, and hopes the world changes the subject. Aramco, a company that publishes its quarterly earnings to the decimal point, suddenly develops a vow of silence whenever someone asks whether its refineries are on fire.
So let me try something different. For the length of this column, I am going to ignore the Saudi government and Aramco entirely and take Ansar Allah’s military spokesman, Brigadier General Yahya Saree, at his word. Not because Saree is a paragon of precision. Military spokesmen everywhere, including in Washington, inflate their results. I do it because the exercise tells you what the Houthis believe they are doing, what they are aiming at, and what Saudi Arabia stands to lose if even half of it is true. Since October 10, the answer is: quite a lot.
The target list
Between October 10 and October 29, Saree issued at least eight statements claiming strikes inside the kingdom. Read them together and a pattern jumps out. This is not random harassment. It is a campaign against three things: the capital, the oil export chain and the air bases that run the war in Yemen.
Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport appears in seven of those statements, on October 10, 11, 12, 19, 24, 26 and 29. Saree has declared it a “military target” and told airlines and travelers to stay away. The Houthis have also claimed King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, Abha airport three times and Najran airport three times.
On the energy side, the Houthis claim to have hit Aramco’s Yanbu complex three times, the East-West pipeline and its pumping stations twice, the Ras Tanura refinery twice, the Rabigh refinery twice, and the Abqaiq processing plant, the Shaybah oil field and Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran once each. Ghawar, the largest oil field on earth, was reportedly on the October 10 list as well.
And on the military side, they claim the King Khalid Air Base at Khamis Mushait four times, a military headquarters in Najran, transport aircraft at Najran airport, a “Saudi navy task force camp,” radar sites at Jabal al-Hisn, Jabal al-Rahmah and Bir Askar, and, twice, the Saudi Ministry of Defense in Riyadh. Read that last one again. The Houthis claim they have twice hit the building from which the Saudi war in Yemen is run.
Every link in the chain
Here is the part that should keep Saudi oil ministers up at night. Look at the energy targets on a map, and you realize the Houthis are not just hitting oil facilities. They are claiming to hit every single link in the one supply chain Saudi Arabia has left.
With the Strait of Hormuz closed to normal traffic, the kingdom’s exports depend on a single route. Crude comes out of Ghawar and Shaybah in the east. It is processed at Abqaiq, which has a capacity of 7 million barrels a day and is the heart of the entire Saudi oil system. It is then pushed 1,200 kilometers west across the desert through the East-West pipeline, which has been running at its full 7 million barrels a day since March, by a string of pumping stations. And it is loaded onto tankers at Yanbu on the Red Sea, which was shipping about 5 million barrels a day of crude.
The Houthis claim to have hit the fields at the beginning, Abqaiq at the processing stage, the pumping stations in the middle and Yanbu at the exit. That is not a target list. That is a flowchart. My friend Karl Miller, who watches this closely from the region, told me weeks ago that four of the 11 pumping stations on that pipeline had been severely damaged and were not functioning. The Houthis’ latest claims suggest they intend to finish the job.
Running the numbers
So what is this worth? Brent was trading near $115 a barrel on October 28, the day after the Houthis claimed Ras Tanura. Let’s do some arithmetic.
If the claimed strikes on the pipeline, the pumping stations and Yanbu have cut the Red Sea exports in half, Saudi Arabia is losing roughly 2.5 million barrels a day. At $115, that is about $290 million a day, or around $8.6 billion a month. If Yanbu were shut entirely, the loss would be about $575 million a day, more than $17 billion a month. Those are not rounding errors, even for a country that has been known to buy a football club on a whim.
Then add the refineries. Ras Tanura has a capacity of about 550,000 barrels a day. Rabigh has roughly 400,000. Yanbu is home to three more. Take the claims at face value and the Houthis have struck plants representing well over a million barrels a day of refining. That is not merely lost revenue for Aramco. It is diesel, jet fuel and gasoline that the world, already short of all three, can’t buy from Saudi Arabia, and that Saudi Arabia may have to import for itself. A petrostate buying refined products from abroad is the energy equivalent of a bakery buying bread at the supermarket.
And then there is Abqaiq. We have seen this movie before. In September 2019, a drone and missile strike on Abqaiq and Khurais knocked out 5.7 million barrels a day, half of Saudi production, overnight. If the Houthis’ October 29 claim against Abqaiq is even partly true, they don’t need to hit anything else. Abqaiq is the chokepoint inside the chokepoint.
The real damage is political
The oil losses are serious, but they are temporary. Pipes get welded. Refineries restart. The political damage to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is far harder to repair.
MBS has staked everything on Vision 2030, the promise that Saudi Arabia will become a global hub for business, tourism, sport and investment. Every one of those businesses depends on one thing: the perception that the kingdom is safe. The Houthis are attacking that perception directly, which is why the capital’s airport is the most frequent name on their list. You can’t sell Riyadh as the Dubai of tomorrow when the Houthis are telling the world’s airlines not to land there. King Khalid Airport was closed from October 11 to October 18. The day after it reopened, Saudi Arabia postponed the Future Investment Initiative, the “Davos in the Desert” that BlackRock’s Larry Fink and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon were supposed to attend, until 2027. Nothing says “open for business” like canceling your flagship business conference.
Then consider the military claims. Saudi Arabia signed a $142 billion arms package with Washington in May 2025, the largest in history, on top of decades of Patriots, F-15s and everything else money can buy. If Saree is to be believed, the Houthis, a movement that controls the poorest country in the Arab world, have repeatedly struck the main air base in the south, the radar network that is supposed to see them coming and the Defense Ministry in the capital. That is a humiliation that no amount of PR can hide. It raises an awkward question in every Gulf capital: what exactly did all that money buy?
It also explains the diplomatic scramble I wrote about last week. Riyadh’s new allies in Pakistan and Turkey have made it clear they will not cross into Yemen. Saudi Arabia’s defense minister flew to Tehran. There are reports, unconfirmed by Riyadh, of a $1 billion down payment to buy calm. Countries that are winning wars do not send their defense ministers to the other side’s patron with a checkbook.
The fine print
In fairness, I said I would take Saree at his word, and his word has a curious feature. On October 31, after the Saudi-led coalition said it had shot down a Houthi drone over Medina, Saree indignantly denied it. The Houthis, he said, had “not carried out any operation directed towards the Saudi interior.” So Ansar Allah will happily claim the Defense Ministry, Abqaiq and the Riyadh airport, but it draws the line at the holy cities. That isn’t modesty. It’s message discipline. The Houthis want the Muslim world to see a war against the House of Saud, not against Islam’s holiest sites.
Which brings me to the bottom line. Even if Saree is exaggerating by half, and he may be, Saudi Arabia is now fighting a war it cannot win on the ground, cannot stop from the air and cannot afford to keep losing at the pump. The Houthis don’t have to destroy Aramco. They only have to convince the world’s airlines, insurers and investors that the kingdom is a war zone. On present evidence, they are doing a pretty good job of it.
Somewhere in Riyadh, an Aramco spokesman is drafting another statement that says nothing. In Sanaa, Yahya Saree is drafting another target list. I know which one I’d read first.
Nima and I discuss the current hiatus between the US and Iran… Will Trump attack?
Mario and I discussed Trump’s mystery call with Bibi Netanyahu:
Sulaiman remains convinced that Israel and the US will soon attack Iran:
END
HOUTHIS VS SAUDI ARABIA/;LAND INVASION
Houthis Launch Cross-Border Ground Raids On Saudi Territory
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 01:30 PM
Fresh reporting in Mideast regional outlets suggesst a major escalation in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. While drones and missiles have been launched on Saudi territory almost daily since September, a new report says that Houthi militants are actually conducting ground force incursions.
In a development that’s been largely unreported, “The Houthis have launched multiple cross-border raids into Saudi Arabia in recent months, in an expansion of the conflict beyond Yemen, a western and Arab official with direct knowledge of the raids told Middle East Eye.”
“The small-scale raids have targeted border posts in Saudi Arabia’s rugged, mountainous southwest,” the report continues, citing that at least one of the raids occurred as recently as the end of October.
The Houthis further “appear to have captured specific small arms that are known only to be used by Saudi border security forces” – the report adds.
Surveillance equipment also appears to have been captured, observers say. This adds to the equipement already captured from the ground forces of the Saudi-backed government in Yemen, which is based out of Aden.
Throughout the start of this week, Saudi authorities have continued to announce inbound interceptions of drones and at times missiles fired from Yemen.
In the meantime, standard and high profile events hosted in the kingdom continue getting canceled, due to spillover from Yemen and the ever-present Houthi aerial attack threat.
“The Asian Football Confederation postponed its flagship international tournament in Saudi Arabia until late 2027, with the Houthi militant attacks testing the kingdom’s ambitions to become a destination for major international events,” Bloomberg reports Tuesday.
According to more via Bloomberg:
The decision to postpone the AFC Asian Cup — one of the most prominent international football competitions set to be hosted by Saudi Arabia to date — follows “exceptional circumstances arising from developments in the region,” the AFC said in a statement on Tuesday. It cited “substantial logistical complexities and travel disruptions.”
Already dozens of major international events which were supposed to take place in September, and October and November have been suspended or else postponed. The war is likely to cost Saudi Arabia billions in losses, including given the attacks on Aramco facilities.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Lavrov: Washington’s Ukraine Policy Unchanged As US Continues Pouring In Arms & Intelligence
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 10:10 PM
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was in Atlanta Friday and into the weekend, and while there he issued some surprisingly blunt remarks to reporters on the sidelines of a G20 meeting, related to the status of Ukraine peace dialogue involving the United States. European officials at the G20 summit were upset and agitated that he was there in the first place, at the invitation of the Trump administration.
Recent weeks have seen the return of optimistic headlines related to Moscow and Kiev getting back to the negotiating table with US mediation. All sides have even tentatively agreed to trilateral talks, but of a ‘technical’ and preparatory nature, and not yet at the level of heads of state – which could happen as soon as this month.
Lavrov told reporters that Russia’s demands and goals for ending the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine remain completely unchanged. He also at one point lashed out at Washington for continuing policies which serve to make peace more distant.
“Our position is known, but what Ukraine intends to bring to the negotiating table, I don’t know,” said Lavrov.
Despite the Kremlin welcoming Presdient Trump’s waving the implementation of the “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026” – he made clear Moscow’s perspective that serious issues remain.
Lavrov pointed to Ukraine actually obtaining more weapons from Western backers of late, and that these are being made ready to strike more targets in Russia.
“This kind of attitude doesn’t really help much in preparing for negotiations,” Lavrov underscored.
As further cited in Reuters and regional media, he “said fundamental issues in relations between the U.S. and Russia were unresolved as sanctions on Moscow remained in force and arms were still being provided to Kyiv.
Lavrov made clear Russia’s position on the conflict “was unchanged from the very start of the special military operation.” He then said Moscow could not accept Ukraine as a “military threat to the lawful security interests of the Russian Federation.”
The most unexpected and fascinating aspect to the remarks came in the top Russian diplomat offering his frank assessment of where things stand in US-Russia bilateral relations:
Lavrov said: “Fundamental issues are not being resolved. Sanctions remain; all the sanctions from [former President Joe] Biden are echoed by the current administration.”
He said U.S. cooperation on sharing intelligence with Ukraine had grown, while arms supplies continued, pointing to a State Department announcement on Friday that it had approved the sale of 500 Patriot PAC-3 missiles to Ukraine.
The charge that the US has actually increased intel-sharing with Ukraine really stands out, given it directly contradicts a slew of recent mainstream media reports saying it had been cut or at least throttled.
Apparently from the Putin government’s point of view, the White House is not moving fast enough on its promises to pressure Zelensky into talks and compromise. The reality has remained that while the Trump administraiton has long talked a big game – including recent reports of First Lady Melania Trump brokering a local ceasefire in the city of Oleshky – the war is still in as protracted and stalemated a state as ever.
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Ukrainian Intelligence Just Tried Its Own Version Of The Israeli Pager Attack
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 06:30 AM
It appears Ukrainian intelligence has attempted to do its own version of the Israeli pager bomb attacks that decimated many Hezbollah commanders in September 2024.
Russian authorities announced Monday the uncovering of a bizarre and twisted plot involving boobytrapped goggles for military drone operators.
The FSB security service said Monday it thwarted a shipment of drone goggles rigged with explosives that were meant to be distributed across drone units.
“During an X-ray examination, explosives specialists established that Ukrainian special services had embedded improvised explosive devices into the first-person view goggles where cooling fans are normally placed,” the FSB said.
Per the official statement and claims, the explosives would have detonated the moment the goggles were turned on, resulting in immediate death or injury.
It was undisclosed just how many headsets were intercepted, but likely border authorities are on high alert protecting against any further shipments or severe security breaches.
The rigged shipment in question was first discovered in the southern Volgograd region – but then other shipments were intercepted elsewhere. The shipments were presented as part of ‘volunteer’ donations.
This isn’t the first time that electronic items had bombs planted in them allegedly by Ukrainian intelligence operatives. Russian authorities are on the lookout for pontentially tampered items including speaker systems, power banks, laptops, or even car parts.
The incident is being compared to the prior similar Israeli operation which was years in planning that rocked Lebanon at the height of the recent Israel-Hezbolllah war there. As we featured at the time:
Former Mossad agents revealed new details of Israel’s pager and walkie-talkie terror attacks carried out against members of Hezbollah in interviews with the CBS News program 60 Minutes this week..
According to a former Israeli intelligence agent known as Michael, Hezbollah bought more than 16,000 of the exploding devices. When Mossad chief David Barnea gave the green light for the attack in September, the pagers and walkie-talkies were detonated on subsequent days.
Some 42 people were killed, including two children, while about 4,000 were injured. Many lost their hands and eyes or had their stomachs ripped open by the explosions. Michael said the walkie-talkie batteries, which included explosive devices, were made in Israel at a Mossad facility.
Drone warfare has become front and center in the longrunning Ukraine war, and has fundamentally transformed the battlefield. And so drone parts and operating equipment continue to be in high demand among both warring sides.
In some cases loitering drones have even been known to attack and bomb single individuals in gruesome scenes. Both sides have been deploying these tactics.
END
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
MMR VACCINE IS VERY SAFE TO TAKE!!
Child Dies In New York’s First Measles Death In 30 Years; Hochul Blames Washington
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 07:10 AM
A child in Lewis County has died in the state’s ongoing measles outbreak, New York health officials said Monday, the first measles-associated death in New York in more than 30 years.
The state Department of Health and Lewis County Public Health announced the death in a joint statement that gave no details about the child, including age or vaccination status, and asked that the family’s privacy be respected.
“We are deeply saddened by the death of a child in Lewis County associated with the ongoing measles outbreak,” the agencies said. “Measles is a highly contagious disease that can cause serious complications and death. Vaccination is the best protection against measles.”
Gov. Kathy Hochul used her own statement – posted the day before the midterm elections – to take a shot at the federal government. “This is New York’s first measles-related death in 30 years, a devastating reminder of what’s at stake when Washington deliberately erodes decades of progress in protecting Americans from preventable illnesses,” she said.
Lewis County is a rural county in northern New York. Statewide, New York has recorded 178 measles cases this year as of Oct. 24 – 170 of them outside New York City and eight in the city – according to the state health department. Lewis County had reported 15 cases as of Oct. 14, all in people who had not received the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, according to the state and county health departments.
The death comes four weeks after Hochul declared a statewide disaster emergency over the outbreak, which widened the pool of people allowed to give measles shots. The state now recommends an early MMR dose for infants 6 months and older who live in a community with measles transmission or are traveling.
The Department of Health and Human Services, led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., said the CDC sent epidemiologists to New York at the state’s request. “Secretary Kennedy and CDC Director Dr. Erica Schwartz continue to make clear that the MMR vaccine is the most effective way to prevent measles,” an HHS spokesperson said in a statement.
An HHS official told the Washington Examiner that the CDC has given roughly $100 million nationwide for measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases, including $2.36 million to New York State and $2.07 million to New York City.
New York’s case is the latest death in the country’s worst measles year in a generation. The CDC counts more than 4,800 cases nationwide this year, the most since 1991, according to its tracker, as we reported.
Neighboring Pennsylvania is the epicenter, with 1,433 cases, 269 hospitalizations and six deaths, according to its health department. The CDC’s own tally has lagged the state’s death count, after Kennedy suggested in August that Pennsylvania officials may have fabricated measles deaths – setting off a public clash with Gov. Josh Shapiro. Pennsylvania has since warned pregnant women about the risks of infection, as we noted last month.
The US could lose the measles elimination status it has held since 2000 when the Pan American Health Organization’s measles elimination commission meets next week.
END
GLOBAL ISSUES//AI
COVID VACCINE INJURY REPORTS; DR MARK CRISPIN MILLER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Dubai Benchmark Slips Into Contango For The First Time Since July
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 12:15 PM
The curve of the Dubai benchmark is showing signs that rising oil flows from the Middle East are exceeding demand for the first time since early July, when the three-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire allowed millions of barrels to leave unhindered the Strait of Hormuz.
Physical flows have been gradually rising for the past two months as Gulf producers accelerated shuttle-shipping through Hormuz with ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman, once tankers have cleared the chokepoint.
As a result, the November contract of the Dubai benchmark traded at the start of this week at a discount of about $2 per barrel to the December contract, traders and brokers told Bloomberg on Tuesday.
This price curve, known as contango, is the first sign since July that current supply is abundant in the Middle East.
The contango structure, in which prices for contracts dated further out in time are higher than the prompt contracts, suggests that concerns about the immediate lack of crude supply have eased significantly.
Rising supply from the Middle East has weakened both the Dubai and Murban prices in recent weeks, prompting increased buying from Asian refiners, especially those in India who have preferred additional Middle Eastern cargoes to the more expensive Russian barrels with higher freight costs.
At the end of last month, the prices of physical Middle East crude slumped as flows from the region recover and reach pre-war levels in some days and weeks.
In contrast with the international benchmark futures prices, the prices of physical crudes from the Middle East have softened, as oil continues to flow out of the Persian Gulf at volumes close to pre-war levels, excluding Iran.
Two weeks ago, robust crude oil flows out of the Middle East started to pressure the key metric of strength for physical supply out of the region. The premium of Oman crude over Dubai, the measure of the Middle East’s market strength, slumped to the lowest level since the end of July.
END
Physical Oil Flips From Bidding War To Fire Sale As Gulf Barrels Flood Back
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 02:30 PM
For much of the past two months, the most important oil price in the world was the one nobody saw on TV.
While ICE Brent futures chopped around in a range, the price of actual, deliverable barrels went parabolic: as we noted at the time, Dated Brent refused to come down even as Gulf flows recovered, North Sea Forties was quoted above $140 a barrel in early October, and refiners scrambling for prompt cargoes were paying whatever it took. Regular readers will recall we have been pounding the table on this “huge physical disconnect” since the first weeks of the war, when the physical market was screaming far louder than the paper one.
Well, the physical market is screaming again. Only this time, in the other direction.
According to Bloomberg, rebounding flows out of the Persian Gulf are sending the cost of physical cargoes tumbling everywhere from the Middle East to the North Sea and West Africa. Just a few weeks ago, one of the North Sea’s key grades was being offered at a premium of more than $20 a barrel to Dated Brent. On Monday, it slumped to a discount of $1.40. Meanwhile, the premium of Dated Brent itself over ICE futures, which stood at about $30 a barrel in early October, has collapsed to roughly $3.70. That is almost 90% of the physical premium gone in a month!
To be fair, physical oil remains expensive in outright terms: Dated was still above $108 a barrel on Monday. But the direction, and the speed, of the move matter much more than the level.
“Needless To Say This Does NOT Suggest A Tight Market”
The trading floors noticed it before the headlines did. In this morning’s GS Execution Elevenses note (available to pro subs), Goldman’s energy trader Peter Hackworth flagged that while the de-escalation chatter drove the unwind in the geopolitical risk premium, the “physical weakness [is] more interesting”:
One of the larger one day moves in crude, although follows on from a Friday rip on expiry + weekend risk… CTA triggers hit, front month touched 50d ($103.72) before bouncing, now rejected at resistance… More interesting is the collapse in physical premia, with the Brent window trading at almost $1/bl discount to dated brent. Dubai has also been weakening, whilst West Africa is a mess, with Angola pushing unsold cargoes into the December programme. Needless to say this does NOT suggest a tight market.
“A mess” is probably being generous. Per Bloomberg, as many as 10-15 cargoes of Nigerian crude for loading this month were still unsold as of Friday, even as trading of December supplies has already started. One cargo of the Republic of Congo’s Djeno sold at a $25 discount to Dated Brent, a level traders say they haven’t seen in years, while Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend is trading at the steepest discount in 14 years. And in the North Sea, one shipment for mid-month delivery was offered at a discount to Brent and… nobody bit.
Remember: these are the same barrels for which buyers were tripping over each other a month ago.
Dubai Flips To Contango For The First Time Since July
The Middle East is sending the same message. The prompt timespread for Dubai, the benchmark that sets the price for nearly all crude exported from the region, has flipped into contango, with the November contract about $2 a barrel below December. That’s the first time near-term supply has outpaced demand since July, when the temporary ceasefire let a flotilla of loaded VLCCs sail out of Hormuz and prices puked. Partials traded in S&P Global’s Platts window, which normally command a premium to the financial Dubai marker, changed hands at near-parity: yet another sign of oversupply.
What changed? Mostly, the barrels showed up.
Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait jumped 10% to just over 15 million barrels a day in October, according to Bloomberg’s tanker tracking, which puts the Gulf’s Arab producers back to roughly pre-war rates despite a fresh wave of attacks on tankers in Hormuz. We first flagged the export rebound on Sept 30, when Goldman estimated that “dark exports” had lifted total Persian Gulf exports back to pre-war levels, and the physical market has spent the past month catching up. Cheaper tanker rates helped too (after a stretch that sent every crude freight index to a record, as in everything else nothing cures record rates like record rates).
Not everyone thinks this is a re-run of June. Sparta Commodities’ June Goh told Bloomberg that “we are not at the same point of a mini-glut back in end-June because at that time, there was a huge volume of oil that was sitting on very large crude carriers, and exited… This time, the increase is more gradual.” Gradual, maybe. But it’s also persistent, which is arguably worse for anyone who stocked up at $20 over Dated.
For what it’s worth, we caught the first crack in real time: the Middle East leg started rolling over almost two weeks ago.
Barrels Vs. Bets: Where The $27 Is Hiding
Which brings us to the obvious question: if the physical market is this sloppy, why is front-month Brent still trading north of $100?
Goldman has the answer, and it’s the same one we discussed yesterday in “Goldman Hikes 2027 Brent Forecast For These Two Reasons”. In the bank’s latest note “Raising Oil Price Forecast on High Supply Disruption Risks” (available to pro subs), Goldman’s commodity team led by Daan Struyven raised its Dec26 Brent forecast to $105 (from $90) and its 2027 average to $88 (from $80), while conceding that almost none of October’s rally had anything to do with supply and demand:
A jump in the risk premium to around $27 now explains most of October’s crude price rally. In contrast, we estimate that Brent’s fair value was little changed in September and October: global inventories—its main driver—held roughly flat as adaptation largely rebalanced global oil output and consumption.
Goldman’s Marquee team put a picture to it in last week’s “Oil Expression: The $27 Risk Premium” note: with Brent at roughly $112 at the time, fair value was only about $85, and the bank noted that the rally reflected “precautionary buying in both physical and financial markets.”
Put differently: the precautionary buying in the physical market is now unwinding, fast, while the financial market is still holding the insurance policy. Bloomberg makes the same point, noting that “much of the strength in futures is being driven by the prospect of the conflict escalating to the point that Persian Gulf oil flows to the global market become disrupted again.” Translation: futures are pricing the war that might happen; physical is pricing the barrels that actually arrived.
Goldman’s own scenario work shows just how wide that gap can get. In the base case, Gulf output keeps grinding back toward pre-war levels and Brent drifts toward the $80s; in the upside case, where 2027 Gulf supply runs 3.5mb/d below 2025, Brent spikes to around $140. Notably, the base case sits below the forward curve, which Goldman says assumes “1) the very high risk premium moderates and 2) Persian Gulf output continues its gradual recovery.” The physical market just voted, loudly, for #2.
Everyone Was Long, And The Exit Is Narrow
That gap also explains the violence of the past two sessions, with futures down 9% in two days and Brent sinking 8% on Monday alone as Washington and Tehran both hinted at a diplomatic path. As The Market Ear put it yesterday, everyone was long oil, now comes the pain. JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence desk (available to pro subs) agrees that the move was mostly about positioning, with crude sitting at the 100th percentile in the bank’s CTA framework, and that “ME diplomatic progress moved Oil more than Equities, Rates or Betting Odds.”
JPM also offers a hint of why Tehran might actually want a deal: Iran’s oil revenues are on track to hit zero by December for the first time. Hard to fund a war on zero.
Then again, nobody on the Street is ready to sound the all clear. Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky wrote this morning (available to pro subs) that he is “a little nervy that the market got ahead of itself on oil,” noting the odd fact pattern of oil bouncing after a report that the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island, “an odd fact pattern if talks are progressing smoothly,” and pointing out that the Saudi ETF closed near its lows, “hardly reflective of a grand bargain in the Middle East.” JPM likewise calls a resumption of combat operations after the midterms “still consensus (and likely),” even if it may prove brief and limited.
And right on cue, the headlines have already reversed (again). After a Gulf-sourced report that Washington and Tehran had made concessions on the nuclear file sent oil sliding this morning, Iran’s Mohsen Rezaee rejected the latest US position, insisting that all seven of Tehran’s conditions must be met before Hormuz reopens, while the IRGC claimed three more tankers exploded after hitting naval mines in the Strait. Brent pared losses to trade near $103.50, which is about where it was before the “breakthrough.” Same as it ever was: a de-escalation headline before the open, a denial by lunch. Today’s market wrap has the rest of the ping-pong.
Trust The Barrels
So which market is right? Over the course of this war, the physical market has had a remarkably better track record than the paper one. It flagged the squeeze in the spring, when futures underpriced the physical shortage; it caught the June glut before the ceasefire headlines did; and in early October, while macro tourists were debating whether the IEA’s emergency release mattered, it told us exactly how scarce prompt oil had become:
Today, the same market is telling us that the Gulf’s Arab producers are shipping at pre-war rates, unsold cargoes are piling up from Lagos to Pointe-Noire, and the Middle East benchmark is in contango. If we have to pick a side, we’ll side with the barrels: the $27 risk premium in futures is the thing that has to give, probably sooner than the bulls think, and Goldman’s own forecast (below the forwards) more or less admits as much.
The caveat, of course, is that the risk premium exists for a reason. Iran is still mining the Strait, Washington is still “defensively” striking Iranian islands, and everyone from Goldman to JPM expects some resumption of hostilities once the midterm ballots are counted. In other words, physical oil is priced for the barrels we have; futures are priced for the barrels we could lose. One more mined VLCC and the physical market could be bidding $20 over Dated again by Thanksgiving.
Until then, the people who actually buy oil are telling you they’ve got plenty.
Much more in the full Goldman “Raising Oil Price Forecast on High Supply Disruption Risks” and the “Oil Expression: The $27 Risk Premium” notes, both available to pro subs.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING\
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1186 DOWN 0.0006
USA/ YEN 158.19 UP 0.271 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS//
YEN CARRY TRADERS MURDERED
GBP/USA 1.3408 DOWN 0.0001 OR 1 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3972 DOWN 0.0011 //CDN DOLLAR UP 11 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 29.93 PTS OR 0.82%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 132.55 PTS OR 0.52%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.49%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 132.55 PTS OR 0.52%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.93 PTS OR 0.82%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .49%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED HOLIDAY
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $3905.75
silver:$48.89
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 50.00 UP 3 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 81.47 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 57 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.2298 UP 3 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.6628 UP 3 BASIS PTS
FRENCH OAT 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9475 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.753 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.480 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early TUESDAY MORNING: 101.69 UP 6 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSES
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.726 % DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.775% UP 1 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.874 UP 1 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.881 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.404 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.2937 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1191 DOWN 0.0001 OR 1 basis points
USA/Japan: 158.12 UP 0.200 2OR YEN IS DOWN 20 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.2043 UP 1 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.6433 UP 1 BASIS POINTS.
FRANCE 10 YR: 4.891 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CANADIAN DOLLAR DOWN 8 BASIS PTS TO 1.3984 UP 0.0008
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.6700ON SHORE ..DOWN
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH DOWN TO 6.6680
TURKISH LIRA: 50.00 UP 3 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.909 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.291 UP 2 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.581 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM $3962.00
SILVER AT 10;00: $50.37
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesTUESDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME/ 12:00 AM///
London: CLOSED DOWN 122.90 PTS OR 1.14%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 116.47PTS OR 0.45%
FRANCE: DOWN 27.38 OR 0.34PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 150.60 PTS OR 0.79 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 15.70 TS OR 0.03%
WTI Oil price 94.58
Brent Oil: 101.65 10;00 EST
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 101.63 OR DOWN 0 PTS
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 81.37/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 47 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.737 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.462 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1191 DOWN 0.0003 OR 3 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3417 UP 0.0008 OR 8 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.2476 UP5 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.6702 UP 3 IN BASIS PTS.
FRENCH 10 YR BOND: 4.914% UP 1 BASIS PTS
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.775 % UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.874 UP 1 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.72 UP 0.803 OR YEN DOWN 80 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4005 UP 0.0021 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 21 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 96.66
Brent OIL: 104.33
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.941%
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 5 PTS to 5.3201%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.614 UP 3 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.767 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.485 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 101.71 UP 8 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 50.00 UP 3 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.37 DOWN 0 AND 47 /100 roubles //
GOLD $3922.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 49.59 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 213.67 POINTS OR 0.41%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 273.68 PTS OR 1.07 %
VOLATILITY INDEX 21.25 UP 1.83PTS OR 9.42%
GLD: $ 361.65 UP 5.87 PTS OR 1.65%
SLV/ 45.57PTS DOWN 0.97 OR 2.17%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 242.94TS OR 0.68%
END
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Stocks Shrug Off AAPL Angst; Dollar Up, Bonds Down Into ‘Dem Sweep’ Midterms
WRAP UP
USA DATA RELEASES
US Factory Orders Are Surging At Their Fastest Pace In Over 4 Years
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 10:05 AM
Following mixed manufacturing survey data, expectations were for a sizable jump in US Factory Orders in September.
The actual print was even better than expected, rising 1.9% MoM (+1.8% MoM exp). That was the third consecutive monthly gain and followed a 0.3% increase in August and lifted orders up over 10% YoY…
Core Factory Orders were even more dramatic, up 1.3% MoM (almost triple the 0.5% MoM expected).
That is the strongest annual growth in core factory orders since July 2022
Transportation equipment (+4.6%) was the biggest durable-goods boost, led by a +28.3% surge in non-defense aircraft and parts (the usual volatile swing).
This full report includes non-durable goods and confirms the earlier advance durable-goods reading (also +1.8%, led by transportation equipment) signaling that demand looks reasonably healthy across both durable and nondurable goods and fits the ongoing manufacturing expansion seen in the ISM data.
The aircraft spike juiced the headline, but the underlying gain (ex-transportation) and the matching strength in nondurables suggest the improvement is more than just a one-off. This is consistent with firm capital-goods/equipment spending trends that should support growth.
Overall, the data points to solid factory demand continuing into the fall.
END
Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar By Over 330K, Amid Near-Record Surge In Americans Quitting
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 10:45 AM
After three straight months of disappointing JOLTS reports, moments ago the BLS reported that in September the number of job openings soared by 333K from an upward revised 7.190 million (vs 7.079 million pre-revision) to 7.523 million…
… beating estimates of 7.164 million handily, the first time the job openings print hasn’t disappointed since May.
This was also the second upward revision to the data after three months of retroactive disappointments. Of course, nobody can possibly forget the three straight years of negative revisions between 2023 and 2025… 
Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS the number and rate of job openings were little changed at 7.5 million and 4.5%, respectively. Job openings increased in state and local government, excluding education (+104,000). There were also material increases in Professional and Business Services jobs, in Information, in Trade and Transportation, and in Construction and manufacturing; these were offset by modest declines in Private Education & Health, in Financial Activities, and Leisure and Hospitality.
Following up on last month’s huge drop in real estate, rental and leasing job openings, in September there was a sizable rebound, with the number of job openings rising from a 12 year low of 52K to 75K.
The September surge in job openings was juxtaposed with relatively flat employment during the month, which meant that after 9 months of labor surplus which ended in March, and after 5 months of modest improvements in the number of excess job openings, we just had the month with the biggest imbalance between job openings and unemployed workers, as the September surplus surged to 414K from 159K the month before, a welcome development for the broader labor market which in September saw a huge air pocket with just 29K new jobs added. 
The latest JOLTS data also means that after dropping to 1.0x in August, the ratio of job openings to unemployed is once again on the way up, rising to 1.1x.
While the job openings number was far stronger than expected, in September we also saw a s burst of strength in both hiring and quits. The number of hires in Sept rose by 131K, from 5.271MM to 5.402MM, resulting in the second highest total hires print since 2024 (only March was higher at 5.535MM). Meanwhile, the number of people who quit their job exploded from 3.044 million to 3.365 million…
… soaring by a near record 10.5%, one of the highest outside of the covid chaos. 
The surge in quits indicated a jump in confidence that better jobs await elsewhere, which the spike in job openings reaffirms.
It goes without saying that strong job openings print, while quits surge and hires rise, leads one to assume that the Friday job report will be much stronger than the 65K median estimate.
In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this put a question mark to the September payrolls report which rose by a tiny 29K (at a time when the hires less separations print was 83K). And since the JOLTS implied number is far stronger than that, having printed negative for a third month in a row, we expect the August payrolls report this Friday to be yet another catch down, and will likely be much higher than the 29K increase reported last month, and also higher than the 65K expected print. 
Overall, this was a stellar JOLTS report, with strength in both openings, hires and quits, and shows that after some modest weakness in the middle part of of 2026, US labor market is now once again recovering solidly, which could translate into another big beat in this Friday jobs report.
USA ECONOMIC REPORT
DISNEY/HUGE LAYOFFS
Unhappiest Place On Wall Street: Disney Readies Thousands Of Layoffs As Managers Told To Slash 20% Of Costs
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 11:07 PM
Three years, two CEOs, at least six rounds of layoffs… and one stock that still can’t get off the floor.
On Monday evening, Bloomberg reported that Walt Disney is set to unleash thousands of job cuts, with the entertainment giant asking some managers to target 20% in annual cost savings. Citing “people familiar with the matter”, the savings could come from job eliminations as well as other expense reductions, and some of Disney’s operations, which range from theme parks to the TV networks and the movie studio, “will be affected disproportionately.”
Disney declined to comment, but the timing speaks for itself: the company reports fiscal Q4 results in two weeks (Nov 17), and it has already promised investors double-digit growth in adjusted EPS in the current fiscal year. When the top line won’t cooperate, well, there is always the cost line.
Regular readers know this is hardly a new chapter. When Disney picked parks boss Josh D’Amaro to replace Bob Iger back in February, the stock was already locked in a trough that started in 2022, and by April we were writing that there would be “no storybook ending” for the roughly 1,000 marketing staff on D’Amaro’s first chopping block. This one is, by all accounts, much bigger.
The Unhappiest Place On Wall Street
First, some context on why Disney is reaching for the axe (again). The stock closed Monday at $113.11 (and barely budged after hours, up ~0.3%), which is 44% below its March 2021 record close of $201.91. Over the same period the S&P 500 is up 97%. Put differently, anyone who bought Mickey at the peak has watched the broader market almost double while their position lost nearly half its value. Shares are, more or less, where they traded in early 2019.
Note the red dots: Iger’s return in November 2022, his 7,000-job, $5.5 billion cost-savings plan in early 2023, and D’Amaro’s appointment this year. None of them moved the needle for more than a few months. So much for the magic.
No Storybook Ending, Part VII
Bloomberg notes that Disney has already cut billions of dollars in costs and eliminated thousands of positions in recent years, with reductions hitting every division, including ABC, Pixar, ESPN, the film studio and the experiences unit. Here is the abridged version of what has become a rolling layoff calendar, with the newest entry in red:
Some of these we covered as they happened: the cuts of 6% of staff at ABC News and Disney Entertainment Networks (Mar 5, 2025), followed by another round in June 2025 as the latest projects bombed at the box office. Then, on Oct 1, the WSJ reported that Disney was planning to restructure its TV division and cut jobs in its legal and global affairs unit:
Back in April, the WSJ also reported that Disney had been working with Bain & Co. consultants on its cost-cutting strategy, which probably makes Burbank the happiest place on earth for at least one group of people.
Today’s numbers, though, are on a different scale. Disney had 231,000 employees worldwide at the end of fiscal 2025. This means that even a 2% headcount reduction is roughly 4,600 jobs, which would comfortably qualify as “thousands”. And while the 20% savings target applies to “some managers” and includes non-labor expenses, a target of that size in any budget line rarely gets met with paper clips alone.
Cut Here, Spend There
D’Amaro isn’t pocketing all of it. According to Bloomberg, the CEO aims to reinvest a portion of the savings into film and TV programming, technology, and the theme parks and cruise ship businesses, where Disney is already in the middle of a $60 billion, decade-long investment push. That is also more or less the bull case on the Street.
Goldman’s Michael Ng, who reiterated his Buy ahead of the print in his latest F4Q26 preview note (available to pro subs), argues that Disney “remains a multi-year earnings compounder driven by ongoing investment in Experiences, cruise expansion, a strong theatrical slate, and Disney+ ecosystem enhancements.” Ng is looking for F4Q EPS of $1.73 versus $1.66 consensus, on revenue of $25.4 billion and segment EBIT of $4.93 billion, both above consensus (helped by a 53rd week). He also nudged up his F2027 EPS to $7.56, though mostly on lower taxes rather than better operations.
The fine print is more interesting. Goldman lists the offsets as “SVOD advertising softness, higher content investment and weaker Asian park attendance“, and despite the above-consensus numbers, Ng lowered his 12-month price target to $140 from $144. When even the bulls trim their targets into a beat, you know the multiple is doing the heavy lifting.
And the parks, which Disney is now asking to carry the whole kingdom, are showing some cracks. Back in August, D’Amaro told analysts on the fiscal Q3 call (when Disney beat with adjusted EPS of $2.06 vs. $1.86 expected) that domestic parks were fine, with per-capita spending up 4%, while management flagged trouble abroad. As JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence desk highlighted in its daily earnings macro read-through (available to pro subs), “the most interesting comments came from DIS”:
“…as an example, we have seen a weaker consumer in Asia, in our parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong in Q3, and that’s continuing in Q4“
Closer to home, Goldman’s latest Orlando tourism tracker, which the bank uses to gauge intra-quarter demand at Disney and Universal parks, showed Orlando airport arrivals down 7% year-over-year in August. Maybe that’s just tough comps against a hot 2025; or maybe even American families have a limit on how many $4.25 bottles of water they are willing to buy.
“Technology Set Their Sights On Our Business”
The other pillar of the bull case, streaming, has a pricing problem of a different kind: Disney keeps raising prices because it can’t grow subscribers fast enough to do anything else. A year ago we laughed at the latest Disney+ price hike…
…and exactly one year later, to the day, we got the sequel:
Disney is far from alone. Bloomberg points out that Netflix, Sony Pictures and Skydance’s Paramount and Warner Bros. divisions have all cut jobs as revenue from traditional television declines and streaming subscriber growth slows, while viewers drift to social media, online video and the streaming arms of Amazon and Apple. Reuters added AI adoption, a weaker box office and slowing international park attendance to D’Amaro’s list of headaches.
Disney President Dana Walden put it rather bluntly at Bloomberg’s Screentime conference last month:
“There is a need to constantly evaluate how you’re structured and how big is the organization. Technology set their sights on our business and we must survive and thrive and grow, and that’s what we’re going to do.”
Translation: the tech giants are coming for the eyeballs, and Disney’s answer is a smaller Disney. Which is a curious pivot for a company that, only last December, invested $1 billion in OpenAI to bring its characters to Sora, before walking away from the deal in March, according to the Hollywood Reporter.
Cheap For A Reason?
To be fair, the sell-side is not exactly running for the exits. Besides Goldman, Wells Fargo’s Steven Cahall recently upgraded the stock to Overweight with a $132 target, and Guggenheim’s Michael Morris reiterated a Buy with a $120 target. On Goldman’s F2027 EPS estimate, Disney trades at roughly 15x forward earnings (napkin math: $113.11 / $7.56), a steep discount to the market.
The problem is that Disney has looked “cheap” for the better part of four years, and as the chart above shows, it hasn’t helped much. Cost cuts can deliver an EPS beat; they can’t manufacture revenue growth, and a 20% savings target in a company with 231,000 employees is not what management teams announce when they’re confident about the top line.
Magic Kingdom, Shrinking Kingdom
D’Amaro inherited a company where the parks print money, the linear TV business is in managed decline, streaming leans on ever-higher prices, and the box office remains hit or miss. His answer so far looks a lot like Iger’s: cut, consolidate, reinvest in the parks and promise double-digit EPS growth. Maybe it works this time. But with the Asian consumer weakening, Orlando arrivals falling and even Goldman trimming its target, we suspect the next round of savings will be needed sooner rather than later… and the layoff calendar above will need a few more rows.
We’ll find out on Nov 17 how much of the 20% is already baked into guidance.
Much more in the full Goldman “F4Q26 preview” note and the bank’s Orlando tourism tracker, both available to pro subs.
END
These Are The States Where Tuesday’s Midterms Can Pull The Plug On Data Centers
Key states include Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Iowa, and others with major data-center capacity, gubernatorial races, Senate contests, or local ballot measures—where backlash over power/water use, noise, land, tax breaks, and local impacts has made the issue bipartisan and politically potent.
wsj.com
Data centers (powering the AI boom) have become a major midterm flashpoint as of the November 3, 2026, elections. Local opposition has already delayed or disrupted dozens of projects via moratoriums and restrictions. Voters and candidates across parties are pushing pauses, tougher rules, ending tax incentives, or local control, threatening further buildout (especially planned capacity for 2028 and beyond) in high-growth markets.
newsletter.semianalysis.com
Major states and races to watch
- Texas: Second-most data centers in the U.S., with heavy planned capacity (including OpenAI/Oracle Stargate-related projects). Gov. Greg Abbott (R, seeking re-election against Democrat Gina Hinojosa) previously supported the sector but has paused new permits/grid connections for audits and energy/water reviews; both sides face pressure for tighter rules. Senate race also involved. Prolonged freezes here are flagged as a top risk to national buildout. finance.yahoo.com
- Ohio: Ground zero for local fights, with the most ballot measures (dozens of zoning/ban/restriction votes across jurisdictions) plus Senate (Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R), with Brown heavily attacking data centers) and gubernatorial races. Both major gubernatorial candidates have backed pauses or strict conditions (e.g., requiring free local electricity or community benefits). Large unstarted capacity and projects like major OpenAI-related campuses are at stake. newsnationnow.com
- Georgia: Tight governor’s race with heavy ad spending on the issue. Significant planned capacity; candidates differ on moratoriums vs. local control. Public Service Commission races also relevant. cbsnews.com
- Pennsylvania: Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) has shifted toward criticizing “greedy developers” and action on the issue. Competitive House/Senate dynamics and tax-break fights; Democrats targeting seats partly on this. politico.com
- Other notable states: Michigan (Senate and local opposition; moratorium talk), Arizona (restrictive candidates on both sides; large exposure), Iowa (governor race with both candidates for tougher rules; strong local opposition), plus Illinois, Oregon, Oklahoma, and places with ballot measures (e.g., California, Florida, Kansas, Nevada, Wisconsin). In some analyses, candidates backing halts or strong conditions could prevail in up to ~15 gubernatorial races. en.sedaily.com
Broader context
Opposition is bipartisan—driven by electricity/water strain, higher bills, environmental concerns, limited local jobs/benefits relative to scale, and rapid approvals. Polling shows broad public skepticism of new local data centers. Many planned projects (especially post-2027) sit in states electing governors or facing local votes. Outcomes could lead to more statewide pauses, cost-sharing requirements, ended incentives, or bans, though existing under-construction capacity is more locked in and national security/AI growth arguments provide some counterweight.
newsletter.semianalysis.com
WSJ specifically highlighted “four places” where midterms could decide the industry’s fate via new moratoriums/restrictions (paywalled details emphasize Texas and similar high-stakes markets). Coverage from Politico, SemiAnalysis, Newsweek, and others consistently flags the same core states as make-or-break for the AI infrastructure boom. Results will clarify how far the backlash spreads into policy.
END
THE RAVEN: COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE/BROOKFIELD
Even More Proof That Commercial Real Estate Is Cracking
Brookfield is walking away from a $600 million luxury skyscraper that’s 95% occupied, exposing the devastating consequences of higher interest rates.
I’ve been skeptical of commercial real estate for years, and one of my central arguments has been relatively simple: much of the industry spent the better part of a decade operating under the assumption that artificially cheap money, ever-rising property valuations, and perpetually available financing were permanent features of the economic landscape.
And…fucking spoiler alert…they weren’t. In fact, just days ago, on October 29, I wrote a piece called The Commercial Real Estate Crisis Is Far From Over, arguing that the disappearance of commercial real estate from the financial headlines didn’t mean the losses had disappeared from the balance sheets.
I highlighted research from Trepp showing that 75% of Class A office loans in a sample of maturing commercial mortgage-backed securities would require additional equity to refinance, compared with 61% of Class B and C properties.
These are supposed to be the crown jewels of commercial real estate. The nicest buildings, in the best locations, with the strongest tenants. And even they are having trouble making the math work. As I noted then, the problem isn’t necessarily the quality of the real estate. It’s the capital structure attached to it.
And now, just days later, we have another spectacular example of exactly what I’ve been talking about. According to a new report from The Wall Street Journal, Brookfield, one of the largest real estate investment firms in the world, is walking away from a roughly $600 million luxury apartment tower in downtown Los Angeles, less than four years after the building opened.
The property, called the Beaudry, is a 695-foot glass skyscraper with 785 apartments, sweeping city views, a golf simulator, a saltwater swimming pool, and even a pet spa.
It’s a relatively new, high-end residential property with nearly every amenity imaginable and it’s approximately 95% occupied. Despite this, Brookfield is effectively handing back the keys.
Why? Because the economics no longer work. According to the Journal, Brookfield faces roughly $360 million in debt on the property, and refinancing that debt at today’s interest rates would require tens of millions of dollars in additional costs. The financing burden has effectively wiped out the firm’s equity, leaving little financial incentive to continue owning the building.
In a zero rate environment, the building would likely be a success at this occupancy rate. But today…and just think about the absurdity of this…a nearly brand-new, 95%-occupied luxury residential skyscraper, developed at a reported cost of $600 million, has become a property its owner would rather abandon than refinance.
In Brookfield’s defense, Downtown Los Angeles has struggled since the pandemic, office vacancies remain roughly twice their pre-2019 levels, and apartment rents have only recently recovered to where they were before COVID.
The tower is also reportedly asking about $4,200 per month in rent, well below the levels Brookfield originally envisioned. The company has also offered concessions, including free rent, to attract tenants.
But the larger story is about what happens when the price of money changes and an entire industry is forced to confront valuations that were built around a completely different interest-rate environment. And the numbers suggest this is far from an isolated incident.
The Journal notes that apartment landlords face approximately $1.8 trillion in debt maturities over the next decade, with nearly half coming due between now and 2028. Many of those loans were originated when borrowing costs were less than half of what they are today.
What we’re witnessing, in my opinion, is the slow unraveling of one of the most important assumptions underpinning the post-financial-crisis economy: that debt could always be rolled over, and that asset prices would eventually rise enough to justify whatever was paid for them. But, as I wrote this summer…
When borrowing costs double, the arithmetic changes dramatically in every industry. This was the point I was trying to make when I said bonds would crash the market about a month ago:
In CRE, a building can remain occupied. It can continue collecting rent. It can even be operating reasonably well. But if its cash flow can’t support the cost of refinancing, the equity can disappear anyway.
And that is precisely what I was getting at in my October 29 piece. Trepp’s research found that approximately 80% of the maturing Class A office loans it examined were interest-only, meaning owners had spent years servicing debt without meaningfully reducing the principal.
When rates were low and valuations were rising, nobody cared. But when the loans come due, the lender suddenly wants to know whether the property can actually support a new mortgage at today’s rates. Increasingly, the answer appears to be no.
This process also helps explain why the industry’s troubles have been so drawn out. Unlike publicly traded stocks, which can reprice in seconds, commercial real estate often reprices when somebody actually has to transact, refinance, or surrender the keys. Until then, there’s considerable room for wishful thinking which is what I have been screaming that we have been witnessing in this space (and private credit) for years.
To me, this is the real story behind commercial real estate’s ongoing reckoning. Not that every building is worthless, or that every landlord is going bankrupt, but that a staggering amount of capital was deployed under assumptions that no longer hold.
Eventually, somebody has to acknowledge that the building isn’t worth what they paid for it and somebody has to acknowledge that the debt can’t be refinanced on acceptable terms. Then, eventually, somebody has to take the loss….believe it or not…even in this market…with this Fed…in 2026.
You can’t extend your way out of bad economics forever.
The Beaudry is a particularly striking example because it demonstrates that even a beautiful, nearly full, recently completed building isn’t immune to the consequences of expensive debt and an overly optimistic original investment thesis. And with hundreds of billions in apartment debt approaching maturity, I suspect we’re going to see plenty more examples of owners discovering the same uncomfortable reality.
Oh, and remember, this isn’t happening in a vacuum.
Just days ago, I also wrote about private credit defaults hitting an all-time high, with Fitch reporting a 6.3% default rate and roughly 88% of defaults involving restructurings rather than outright bankruptcies.
Lenders are extending maturities, deferring interest, and allowing borrowers to accumulate more debt rather than immediately recognize losses.
Sound familiar? It’s the same extend-and-pretend playbook we’re watching unravel in commercial real estate. With enormous refinancing walls approaching in both sectors over the next two years, I think we’re beginning to see the consequences of an entire financial system that spent more than a decade confusing cheap credit with genuine economic prosperity.
Different assets, different lenders, same underlying problem: the debt doesn’t disappear just because everybody agrees to pretend it isn’t there.
Army Tests Autonomous Robots That Hunt Enemy Targets
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Austin Campbell and Nicholas Slayton via Task & Purpose,
Four robotic vehicles were sent hunting for enemy targets during a military demonstration at Fort Knox, Kentucky, recently, but only one initially moved.
Guided by satellite imagery, the unmanned vehicle climbed a hill, scanning the surrounding terrain while the other three waited behind. Halfway up, it spotted a potential target and abruptly stopped.
Two other robotic vehicles advanced to provide support before a simulated rocket strike hit a target roughly 300 yards away.
Autonomous off-road vehicles capable of hunting enemy targets might sound like something out of the “Terminator” franchise, but the Oct. 15 demonstration offered a glimpse of how the technology could work on a modern battlefield.
The four experimental vehicles were developed under the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s RACER program, which aims to give unmanned ground vehicles the ability to navigate difficult terrain without human drivers.
The system used satellite images to help locate potential targets, while a human operator could review what the vehicles found and decide whether to launch an explosive drone at them.
The drone demonstration was conducted in response to a request from U.S. European Command, which wanted to explore whether autonomous vehicles could operate ahead of American troops to locate potential enemy forces without putting soldiers directly in harm’s way.
Fort Knox was selected in part because its terrain could simulate conditions American forces might encounter in Europe.
“We looked at how a unit could deploy these types of autonomous capabilities in a theater like EUCOM to discover potential operational value and relevant technical challenges,” Dr. Jason Gregory, DARPA’s deputy program manager, told Task & Purpose.
The technology remains experimental, but DARPA hopes other Pentagon programs will build on the demonstration to develop systems that could eventually be used in combat.
“We showed what’s possible,” Gregory said. According to DARPA, the system was designed to comply with Defense Department policy requiring human oversight of decisions to use lethal force.
The Fort Knox demonstration comes as the Army is testing an expanded range of unmanned vehicles designed to take on dangerous battlefield missions, from delivering supplies and evacuating wounded troops to locating enemy forces and supporting attacks.
Earlier this year, an Army solicitation highlighted the dangers of the “last tactical mile,” the final stretch of a journey to troops on the front lines, describing it as “often the most dangerous and logistically complex.”
While the technologies serve different purposes, they reflect a growing effort to expand what unmanned systems can accomplish on the battlefield while reducing the number of American service members exposed to danger.
KING NEWS
| The King Report November 3, 2026 Issue 7861 | Independent View of the News |
| Iran’s Pezeshkian says Supreme Leader has granted government some authority on dialogueOil and the dollar move lower, while US equity futures, Treasuries and gold gain as the report circulates. The key phrase is “some authority on dialogue.” That suggests an opening for talks, but the scope of that authority remains unclear. Pezeshkian’s warning against forcing Iran to surrender also shows that the diplomatic message comes with conditions…https://investinglive.com/news/iran-s-pezeshkian-says-supreme-leader-has-granted-government-some-authority-on-dialogue/ Iranians have left Doha talks, draft proposal for US deal being circulated, official says“Our demands have been articulated very clearly and transparently. These demands are reasonable and logical: no final agreement can be initiated, nor can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened or secured, unless the US naval blockade is brought to an end, Iran’s demands are respected, and Iran’s legitimate requirements are addressed,” Baghaei said… Last week Vice President Vance sent a letter to Iran’s national security chief Mohsen Rezaei about the possibility of restarting negotiations. It was the most senior-level outreach by the U.S. to Iran in several months…At the same time, Trump said the U.S. still has to “take care” of one or two nuclear sites in Iran.https://nypost.com/2026/11/02/world-news/iranians-have-left-doha-talks-draft-proposal-for-us-deal-being-circulated-official-says/ Axios: Trump has frank call with Netanyahu about next move in Iran warThe sources said Netanyahu is pressing Trump to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections on Tuesday. But Trump, for now, wants to let negotiations play out — a strategy Netanyahu is concerned about…As he did before Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and Operation Epic Fury in February, Trump is pursuing dual tracks — trying to reach a deal to restart peace talks while also preparing for a possible resumption of major combat operations after the midterms…https://www.axios.com/2026/11/01/trump-netanyahu-iran-negotiations-war @charliespiering: Trump to @mirandadevine on Iran: “When you think about it, we’re not fighting right now. Much of this war we haven’t really been fighting. We fought them. We hit them very hard a couple of times and we sat back and watched. … For those people that would not like me to be a war nation, you’ve sort of got two for the price of one.” (Copying LBJ now?) Since June 2025 ‘peace is at hand’ pronouncements and reports have appeared on a regular basis, usually over the weekend to boost the stock market and pressure oil. Anthropic reveals $900bn AI spending commitments ahead of IPO – FTAnthropic’s spending on chips, power and infrastructure, meanwhile, leapt 77 per cent from $5.6bn to $9.9bn… https://www.ft.com/content/4d91dbab-6fe4-45ab-beee-d77e091cb37f?syn-25a6b1a6=1 ORCL Stock Slides After Company Announces $20B Fundraising Plan ($10B of stock)https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/orcl-stock-slides-company-announces-143159251.html The rotation out of AI stocks and into select Fangs and laggards resumed on Monday. Oracle’s equity offering is a Christmas Future harbinger of coming equity offerings to pay down monstrous debt! APPL -1.54%, (results due Monday) TSLA +1.0%, MU -5.85%, NVDA -1.26%, AMZN +2.2%, SPCX +1.22%, MSFT -2.83%, INTC -8.8%, AMD -7.52%, SNDK -6.59%, GOOGL -0.3%, Meta -1.34% The S&P 500 opened sharply higher (7610.83, +30.76 pts) and soared to 7662.23 at 10:28 ET. The 2nd Hour Reversal pushed the S&P 500 Index down to 7622.06 at 11:20 ET. The index then went inert and traded within an 8-handle range until the S&P 500 broke lower at 12:10 ET. The index then partially filled the opening upward gap and fell to 7592.64 at 12:46 ET. The early afternoon rally took the S&P 500 Index to 7616.66 at 13:10 ET. The index rolled over, filled the opening upward gap, and turned negative for the day. The S&P 500 Index sank to a new daily low of 7563.71 at 14:27 ET. The S&P then jumped to 7577.78, 14 handles, in seconds, when Trump, during a rally at the Reflection Pool in DC, stated Iran wants a deal and that an agreement is possible and, “It’s coming together nicely, that’s why oil down.” WaPo: Trump is giving his closing midterm pitch at problem-plagued Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool – President Donald Trump is making his closing pitch of the midterm elections at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, pushing his slow, expensive and problem-plagued efforts to repair it back into the spotlight on the eve of Election Day… The WH, citing DJT: “We’ve achieved more in less than two years than any administration in history… Oil today is down $10, which is the biggest drop in oil in history. There has never been any single day where oil has gone that much… and it will go down more because we are winning with Iran… and they want to make a deal, and that could happen…” https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2117347587212874046 @cspan: President Trump: “We’re going for our final approval of the Triumphal Arch, Military Complex… It’ll be the most beautiful arch in the world…” https://x.com/cspan/status/2117350902117937581 @FrontlinesTPUSA: Following his remarks, President Trump takes the presidential motorcade around the newly renovated Reflecting Pool. https://x.com/FrontlinesTPUSA/status/2117346304779305201 Axios during Trump’s afternoon rally: Trump to Axios: “No rush” to decide on bombing Iran againBut it appears the president, at least for now, will continue on dual tracks — letting negotiations play out while preparing to go back to war if he concludes a deal isn’t reachable…https://www.axios.com/2026/11/02/trump-axios-interview-no-rush-resume-war @iclalturan: Vance on Iran: “We’ve had a number of conversations with the Iranians. I actually just spoke with the president of the United States about an hour ago about this. Look, the president and I both feel pretty good about the prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement. We’re going to keep on working at it.” https://x.com/iclalturan/status/2117354206181179406 The S&P 500 Index inched up to 7579.61 at 14:30 ET but then rolled over and tumbled to new daily lows because “you can’t fool all the people all the time.” The rally for the expected last-hour manipulation took the S&P 500 to 7584.97 at 15:03 ET. Alas, there is a malevolent force in the equity market. The S&P 500 Index sank to a new daily low of 7539.38 at 15:58 ET. The S&P 500 Index closed at 7541.40, -0.51%. Team Trump must be irate that equities sank despite the concerted effort to sell ‘peace with Iran is nigh’ on Monday. Positive aspects of previous session Stocks, ex-most AI-related stocks, surged early on yet another ‘peace with Iran is nigh’ report.DJIA +0.41%, DJTA +1.54%, PHLX Housing Index +4.1%; USZs +11/32 at 16:22 ET.SP Consumer Discretionary +2.25%, Materials +1.83%, Financials +1.76%, Consumer Staples +1.75%, Industrials +1.37%, Real Estate +1.01%, Utes +0.53%Dec WTI -$8.09, Dec Brent -$9.29, Dec Diesel -25.95¢, Dec Gasoline -25.67¢ at 15:22 ET Negative aspects of previous session The Nasdaq 100 is down 11%+ from its all-time high.The Philadelphia Exchange’s Semiconductor Index breached its July low.Despite Team Trump’s strident ‘peace with Iran’ hectoring, stocks sank after a dumb buying surge.SP 500 -0.51%, Nasdaq -1.07%, Nas 100 -1.39%, SOX Index -3.37%S&P 500 -1.82%, DJIA -1.09%, Nasdaq -2.86%, Nas 100 -3.46%, SOX Index -7.2%SP Energy -3.97%, Info Tech -2.66%, Comm Services -0.21%, Health Care -0.17%USZs lost most of its (+30/32 high) rally by the early afternoon. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Did stocks sink on Monday afternoon because betting markets showed a surge for Dem candidates?Will political polls and betting markets get the Midterm Elections right? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7581.00Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7662.23 (10:28 ET); 7539.38 (15:58 ET) @WarMonitor3: Europe is under a massive widespread cyber attack right now Sweden, Belgium, Luxembourg, Estonia, Ireland the Netherlands and just now Finland are all experiencing disruptions to supermarket refrigeration systems causing food to go off. Sweden and Belgium appear to be experiencing the largest issues with chain shops whilst smaller disruptions are occurring in other countries, this comes after a similar attack in France 2 weeks ago. (Russia suspected) After Monday’s close, Apple reported EPS 2.10, 1.99 exp; Revenue of $114.5B, $113.4B expected; iPhone Revenue $57.58B, $56.48B exp; Services $31.58B, $31.58B exp. APPL -3.25% at 18:03 ET Palantir EPS .44, .41 exp; Revenue $2.31B, $2.18B exp; raised Q4 revenue guidance to $2.65B vs $2.46B consensus; hiked FY26 Revenue guidance to $8.530B-$8.534B, $8.2B exp. PLTR -3.67% at 18:03 ET. @Kalshi: 75% chance Democrats control the Senate less than 1 day before election. Here’s Where Data Center Bans Are on the Ballot (Full List)(OH with 13 municipalities; IL with 6 municipalities; Janesville, WI; KS, Maine with 4 municipalities)https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharyfolk/2026/11/02/heres-where-data-center-bans-are-on-the-ballot-full-list/ AI Weekly: The Information’s Shane Burke estimates candidates backing a data center moratorium could win up to 15 of 36 US governors’ races Tuesday… Ohio, Michigan and Texas are the three to watch…https://aiweekly.co/alerts/pause-backing-candidates-eye-15-of-36-us-governor-races WSJ: U.S. Strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island as Trump Talks Down War Risks 19:39 ET, Nov. 2, 2026 Today – The long-awaited US Midterm Elections have arrived. We will soon find out if the polls are still wrong due to blatant bias and the betting markets are manipulated by political donors. Last week, the new TV series “Cupertino” was an episode in which betting markets were being manipulated by political forces to influence elections. If it’s obvious to entertainment writers/producers… Traders will try to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside in the morning. Then, activity should become lame as traders and investors wait for Midterm Election results. Rumors and leaks about exit polling could influence afternoon trading. Palantir rallied as much as 3% on its good results. It then sank to -3.25%. Apple vacillated between small gains and losses after it reported results; but it later fell sharply. Good results with sharp reversals to the downside are NOT beneficial dynamics for today! NQZs soared to +140.00 at 18:22 ET Monday; but the Dec Nas 100 future has lost much of its rally. ESZs +5.50; NQZs +47.50, USZs -12/32, Dec WTI +$0.21, Dec Gas +0.79¢, ¥/$ 157.899 at 19:55 ET Expected earnings per Nasdaq: AMD 1.68, AMGN 5.74, PFE .72, MPC 25.74, YUM 1.47, PRU 3.32, SMCI 1.04, DD 1.86 https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/earnings Expected Economic Data: Sept JOLTS Job Openings 7.13m; Nov RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index 46.2; Sept Factory Orders 1.2% m/m S&P 500 50-day MA: 7695; 100-day MA: 7618; 200-day MA: 7311 (Close 7541.40, -0.51%)Nasdaq 100 50-day MA: 29,771; 100-day MA: 29,548; 200-day MA: 29,940 (Close 27,989.82, -1.39%) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,187, 100-day MA: 52,388; 200-day MA: 50,619 (Close 51983.98, +0.41%) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) SCOTUS rejects Trump admin’s attempt to set aside California ballots it believes are noncitizensThe Justice Department, in its emergency appeal to the high court earlier Monday, asked for a “limited injunction” to stop California from counting the ballots while lower courts consider the case.https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/scotus-rejects-trump-admins-attempt-set-aside-california-ballots-it-believes Trump had the chance to nominate 3 conservatives to the SCOTUS. He selected 3 GOPe types. Dallas Morning News @dallasnews: I’m a Republican, but Gina Hinojosa has my votehttps://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/article/republican-endorses-gina-hinojosa-texas-elections-22498666.php @DeAngelisCorey: Dallas Morning News just added an editor’s note saying they were unaware that the author was paid $57,000 by Gina Hinojosa’s political campaign. They said they wouldn’t have published it if they knew. https://x.com/DeAngelisCorey/status/2117053318832742446 The Dallas Morning News didn’t investigate the op-ed author even though the effort takes only minutes? Journalism malpractice, and it’s always one way, keeps making new highs – because there are NO consequences or punishments for it. A client who is a Vietnam Vet advised us to read “Dereliction of Duty” to understand the difference between what Trump is doing on Iran and what LBJ did on Vietnam. The book is infuriating and dispiriting. What LBJ, McNamara, et al. did regarding Vietnam was uniquely unconscionable and evil. Dereliction of duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the lies that led to Vietnam – The book follows step-by-step the series of developments and secret decisions made in Washington between November 1963 and July 1965 to intensify the American military commitment in Southeast Asia. And it reveals that the disaster that followed was not caused by impersonal forces but by uniquely human failures at the highest levels of the U.S. government: arrogance, weakness, lying in the pursuit of self-interest, and above all, the abdication of responsibility to the American people. The roles played by the president’s closest advisers – McGeorge Bundy, Dean Rusk, George Ball, Maxwell Taylor, and especially Robert McNamara – in the decisions to escalate American involvement are central to the story. And the reasons behind those decisions – now exposed – challenge McNamara’s claim that American policy makers were prisoners of the ideology of the containment of Communism and therefore should be absolved of responsibility for the final outcome. The book also reveals for the first time how the virtual exclusion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from the decision-making process exacerbated the problem… https://archive.org/details/derelictionofdut0000mcma Bing AI Overview of “Dereliction of Duty”: McMaster contends that: The war was lost in Washington, D.C., before U.S. troops were fully committed in 1965 – Johnson’s primary goals were political (securing the 1964 election and passing Great Society legislation), with Vietnam as a secondary concern. McNamara and other advisers misled the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Congress, and the public, often to reassure Johnson and protect their own positions The escalation from 1963 to 1965 was driven by flawed decisions, conflicting objectives, and a lack of a coherent strategy to win or contain the conflict. Super Summary: Dereliction of DutyThe Joint Chiefs of Staff began pressuring Johnson to commit to seeing Vietnam through to a successful result, but McNamara’s policy of gradually increased pressure remained in effect. This kept the U.S. committed without actually leveraging the force necessary to gain a resolution. McMaster argues that Johnson liked this because it allowed him to appear to be handling Vietnam while actually concentrating on domestic issues that were his priority: First, securing re-election in 1964, and later the Great Society social reforms. McMaster also notes that this policy of gradual pressure was also established without the input of the Joint Chiefs, cutting the military out of the decisions… McMaster notes that Johnson was reluctant to order military strikes because he had run as a candidate of peace and worried how it would look…https://www.supersummary.com/dereliction-of-duty/summary/ “Peace does not come to the man who refuses to declare war on what is destroying him.” — Seneca | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Alaska’s Decoy Scandal Brings Back The Usual Suspects For Shady Election Tactics
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 08:30 PM
Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,
Below is my column on the return of Marc Elias in another campaign controversy with the Alaskan decoy scandal. The Elias Law Group and other lawyers were tied to the effort to confuse Alaskan voters by The New York Times in its recent investigative report. These lawyers presumably have a growing conflict of interest as dozens of subpoenas shower down on Alaska. What is clear is that this scandal will not end on Tuesday and, if the results are close in favor of Democrat Mary Peltola, there could be a major fight over her taking her seat in the Senate.
Here is the column:
Marc Elias is back. The notorious Democratic lawyer who played a critical role in the 2016 Russia hoax is again in the news. His law firm has been identified by the New York Times as part of the expanding scandal involving Democratic effort to confuse voters in Alaska with a decoy candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan.
For those familiar with Elias’s checkered history, this is a case of rounding up the usual suspects.
The scandal involving Democratic candidate Mary Peltola has quickly snowballed this week. A New York Times blockbuster investigative report quotes former staff who claim she knew of a cynical effort by her own campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to confuse voters by recruiting and fielding a decoy “Dan Sullivan” candidate in the race against incumbent Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan (R-Alaska). State and federal investigations are now unfolding, with dozens of federal subpoenas raining down on Alaska.
The effort to get voters to cast mistaken ballots is grossly unethical and, even in these rage-filled times, a uniquely disgraceful scheme. Peltola and the Democratic Party had long denied any involvement in the other Sullivan’s candidacy. So when the Times produced evidence that she allegedly knew, and that Democratic staffers and lawyers had been deeply involved from the beginning, many of us were surprised – that is, until the name “Marc Elias” emerged. Then it made more sense.
The Elias Law Group was already in the news this election cycle for threatening reporters with defamation lawsuits if they kept asking questions about the health of former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina. Earlier, Elias caused a stir during an unsuccessful Democratic gerrymandering effort, raising the idea that Democratic leaders could abolish the entire Virginia government after courts blocked their attempted radical redistricting plan.
The fact that figures such as Peltola and Cooper wanted to be associated with any law firm headed by Elias is itself an indictment of their judgment and standards.
Despite his losses in cases such as National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission, Elias is still a favorite of many on the left thanks to his aggression and partisan fervor. The controversies that make him notorious to many make him popular with others.
Elias was the general counsel to the Clinton presidential campaign when it secretly funded the infamous Steele Dossier and pushed the false Alfa Bank conspiracy theory. (His fellow Perkins Coie partner, Michael Sussmann, was later indicted but acquitted for making a false statement to the FBI.)
Clinton campaign officials lied to reporters during the 2016 campaign, denying any involvement in the Steele Dossier. Journalists discovered the truth after the election – that the Clinton campaign had hidden payments for the dossier as “legal fees” among the $5.6 million paid to Perkins Coie. New York Times reporter Ken Vogel said that when he tried to report the story, Elias “pushed back vigorously, saying ‘You (or your sources) are wrong.'”
Times reporter Maggie Haberman later observed that “Folks involved in funding this lied about it, and with sanctimony, for a year.” The Federal Election Commission ultimately sanctioned the Clinton campaign for the subterfuge.
While raising money as the self-proclaimed defenders of democracy, Elias’s group has been involved in gerrymandering and efforts criticized as seeking to invalidate Republican votes, including unsuccessful efforts to challenge Democratic electoral losses.
In Maryland, Elias’s team supported another abusive gerrymandering scheme that a court found not only violated Maryland law but the state constitution’s equal protection, free speech and free elections clauses. The court found that the proposed map “subverts the will of those governed.”
One media site accused Elias and his group of “making millions off gerrymandering efforts” while publicly denouncing Republican gerrymandering.
In 2024, Elias’s legal team was also accused of pushing “to bar third-party presidential candidates – including Cornel West – from swing state ballots where they might siphon votes” from Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
Likewise, the New York Times reported that the Elias firm’s work “on behalf of a Soros-funded PAC in Texas … was opposed by a left-leaning election watchdog as undermining laws intended to limit the influence of major donors.”
His group’s work for New York’s redistricting effort was ridiculed as not only ignoring the express will of the voters and also effectively negating Republicans’ votes.
In 2024, the Chief Judge of the Western District of Wisconsin criticized the Elias Law Group for one of its challenges. Judge James Peterson (an Obama appointee) said that the argument “simply does not make any sense.”
Now, Elias’s group is linked to the decoy scandal in Alaska, which allegedly aimed to make voters cast mistaken ballots. What distinguishes lawyers involved in this type of voter disruption is less their talent as their willingness. There are simply some things that most lawyers will not do.
There is also a difference in how lawyers are treated in such controversies. It often seems that election controversies involving Republican lawyers are more likely to end with bar charges and disbarments. Take John Eastman, the former Trump lawyer disbarred in California after a state bar panel found that he had pushed unfounded legal theories and conspired to obstruct the electoral vote count on Jan. 6, 2021.
Although I publicly disagreed with Eastman’s theories, I opposed the effort to disbar him as setting a dangerous precedent for lawyers seeking to advance novel or unpopular theories of recovery or liability. After all, lawyers on the left routinely advance dubious theories, including some that are more ideologically than legally driven. Such controversies rarely rise to the level of disbarment, especially when more appropriate sanctions are available, ranging from reprimands to fines.
Eastman is currently asking the Supreme Court to overturn his disbarment. It is unlikely that Elias Law Group or Peltola’s lawyers will face similar disbarment efforts – nor should they, in my view, unless they were involved in criminal conduct. But the disparate treatment afforded to counsel in this country by party remains a growing concern. What draws a shower of bar complaints for Republican lawyers brings a windfall of clients for Democratic lawyers.
The New York Times has produced sources alleging that lawyers for Peltola’s campaign were involved in this effort, even though they previously told a federal court that they “lack knowledge or information” and “deny any allegation about those purposes.” Such filings and statements could raise ethical or even criminal questions in investigations at both the state and federal levels.
Meanwhile, though, tens of thousands of voters in Alaska have already cast ballots that included the decoy Sullivan candidate. This could result in a nasty fight in Congress if Peltola prevails in the vote count. And when it happens, that is where we will find Marc Elias in his element.
Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”
END
NEW YORK//WESTCHESTER COUNTY
Voting Machines Reject Paper Ballots Across Westchester County, Home To A Key House Battleground
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 11:00 AM
Ballot scanners at polling places across Westchester County, New York, stopped accepting paper ballots on Election Day, raising the prospect of delayed results in one of the country’s most closely watched House races, between Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Democratic nominee Cait Conley. The county covers roughly 30% of New York’s 17th District.
The Westchester County Board of Elections said Tuesday it was aware of a problem preventing voting machines from accepting paper ballots at polling locations throughout the county, and that it was working with New York State officials and the county government “to ensure that voting continues with as little disruption as possible.” It first blamed the thickness of the paper ballots, then removed that explanation from its statement. No cause has been given since. Lawler has said officials are working with vendors to determine whether the ballots or the machines are at fault.
Voters whose ballots can’t be scanned are being told to stay in line and put them in orange emergency ballot bags, which the board says will be secured, monitored and counted under election procedures. “Every eligible vote will be counted,” the board said, adding that “No voter should be discouraged from participating in this election because of this issue.”
One voter described the scene on X:
New York Attorney General Letitia James said her office is monitoring the scanner problem and is in touch with the state and local boards of elections:
Both candidates urged calm. Lawler told voters, “Do not leave the polling place without voting,” and said every ballot will be counted. Conley wrote that voters can “still vote and every vote is being counted!”
Republicans were quick to call it deliberate. Katie Miller, wife of Trump adviser Stephen Miller, wrote on X:
But, as always, there is no evidence (yet) of intent: the county has given no cause, and officials describe the problem as a ballot-scanning fault. The ballots in the emergency bags can’t be tallied until they are processed, which means results in the NY-17 race could be delayed.
END
WHAT A JOKE!!
Obama Judge Orders Federal Officials To Stop Sending Lists Of Noncitizen Voters To States
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026 – 11:30 AM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
The federal government must stop transmitting lists of people officials say are confirmed or suspected noncitizens registered to vote, a U.S. judge ruled on Nov. 2.
Bulk disclosure of the lists to states likely violates the Privacy Act, which prohibits disclosure of identifiable personal information unless officials meet one of the exceptions, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan in the District of Columbia wrote in a 30-page ruling.
The law enforcement exception, for instance, does not apply because it requires the head of an agency to request records, and the government has not shown any such request, Chutkan said.
Officials also never published a systems of record notice, or SORN, which the act requires for new databases.
“This constitutes a violation of the Privacy Act’s procedural requirements,” Chutkan wrote. “As another court in this district has observed, ‘it is flatly inconsistent with the text, structure, and purpose of the Privacy Act for an agency to initiate a major new data-sharing program affecting the sensitive data of millions of Americans’ without publishing a SORN that covers the intended routine uses of the information.”
The judge also concluded that no law authorizes the government’s policy to collect lists of registered voters and transmit them to states.
She forbade officials for the time being from disclosing lists of potential or actual non-citizen voters or registered voters to states and counties.
The departments of Justice and Homeland Security did not respond to early morning requests for comment by the time of publication.
The ruling came on the same day that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit said the government can pressure states to isolate ballots from suspected noncitizens and threaten election officials with prosecution if they allowed noncitizens to vote. The full appeals court quickly vacated that order and said the case will be reheard by the full court.
Officials have been sending the lists to states and counties and demanding they take action to verify whether the individuals are citizens of the United States. If they aren’t, they are prohibited from registering to vote or voting in federal elections.
Department of Justice lawyers had told Chutkan in a brief that the operation to identify noncitizen voters was not a final agency action subject to review, that the groups that sued over the effort did not have standing because it did not injure them, and that the project was authorized in part by a law that says the government “has broad, undoubted power over the subject of immigration and the status of aliens.”
They also said the Privacy Act only allows individuals, not organizations, to sue for relief.
Chutkan said the plaintiffs, which include the League of Women Voters, are likely to succeed on the claim that the policy of transmitting the data is a final action because legal consequences are flowing from it, including lawsuits from the federal government challenging how state officials have responded after receiving the lists.
She said the league has standing because its ability to register voters ahead of the midterm elections was harmed by the policy, that the immigration law defendants cited does not enable them to transmit the lists, and that other courts have considered the position that only individuals can sue for Privacy Act violations, and rejected that position.
GREG HUNTER….
A LITTLE HEADS UP: I WILL NOT BE DOING A COMMENTARY ON THURSDAY AS I HAVE A MEDICAL PROCEDURE TO ATTEND TO. I WILL PROVIDE THE PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR YOU.
