GOLD CLOSED UP $36.20 TO $4106.20
SILVER CLOSED UP $0.65 TO $52.80
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,064.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/06/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 11/10/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
323 C HSBC 20
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 3
365 C MAREX CAPITAL MARKET 4
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 10
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 1 5
905 C ADM 7
TOTAL: 25 25
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOVEMBER./2026: 25 CONTRACTS NOTICES FOR 2500 OZ or 0.0776 TONNES
total notices so far: 4492 contracts FOR 449,200 OZ OR 13.972 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 136 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 680,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1502 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 7.510 million oz
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $36.20 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL INSTEAD OF FRAUDULENT GLD/HUGE CHANGES AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.8600 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.51 TONNES
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.65 AT THE SLV.//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3540 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//
NOV: INITIAL STANDING 5.820 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 115 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.575 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 9.155 MILLION OZ//
NOV. 12.655 MILLION OZ
NOV: INITIAL STANDINGl 10.566 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 48 CONTRACTS FOR 4800 OZ//(0.1493 TONNES)//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.9844 TONNES
GOLD PRICE LOSS OF $32.30
NOV INITIAL STANDING 10.566 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 48 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 4800 OZ OR 0.1493 TONNES///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 14.102 TONNES
NOV// 39.36 MILLION OZ
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.61 PTS OR 0.32%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 32.91 PTS OR 0.13 %
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1,439.00 PTS OR 2.37%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.41%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6728
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6705 Oil DOWN TO 89.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 94.84 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING DOWN 6.6728OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.6705 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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NOV 0//SO FAR
NOV 0 SO FAR
NOV 0
THE SPECS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT FELL BY $32.30
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Out of HSBC 160.75 oz (5 kilobars) total withdrawal 160.75 oz |
| Deposit to theDealerInventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 25 CONTRACTS 2500 OZ 0.0404 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 42 Contracts 4200 OZ 0.1300 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 4492 notices 449,200 OZ 13.894TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS:CUSTOMER ACCT
ENTRIES: 0
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comex withdrawals
1 ENTRIES
i) Out of HSBC 160.75 oz
(5 kilobars)
total withdrawal 160.75 oz
adjustments: 1
all dealer to customer
a) Brinks 104,844.411 oz (3261 kilobars or 3.261 tonnes adjusted out)
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI STANDS AT 67 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 25 CONTRACTS.
ON FRIDAY WE HAD 448,600 OZ( 13.9844 TONNES) STAND FOR DELIVERY: TODAY, 453,400 OZ (14.102 TONNES) FOR A GAIN OF 4800 OZ 48 CONTRACTS (.1493 TONNES)//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 14.102 TONNES OF GOLD
.
DECEMBER, THE LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR, ITS OI FALLS BY 4818 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 255,460
JANUARY RISES BY 18 CONTRACTS TO 921 OI
.
We had 25 contracts filed for today representing 2500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 25 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 10 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NON /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,492) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (67) CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 25 x 100 oz per contract) equals 453,400 OZ OR(14.102Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV. /2026. contract month,we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,492) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV( 67) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 25x 100 oz per contract) equals 453,400 OZ OR(14.102Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in NOV becomes 14.102 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV: 14.102 TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV/
FRIDAY VOLUME: 221,798 GOOD
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,662,385.393 oz 51.707tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,662,385.393.tonnes oz 51.707 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 22,993,027.488oz//
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,238,653.579 tonnes (442.881 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 8,754,373.909 oz.
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON in oz 12,576,268 ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
391.117 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
NOV DELIVERY MONTH
NOV 9
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 4 entries i) Out of Asahi: 83,618.400 oz ii) Out of CNT 313,968.105 oz iii) Out of Manfra; 29,252.588 oz iv) Out of Stonex: 30,364.540 oz TOTAL WITHDRAWAL: 457,,203.633oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 1 a) CNT: 599,533.860 oz total: 599,533.860 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 136 CONTRACT(S) ( 680,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 329 Contracts (1.645 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1502 contracts 7.510 MILLIONoz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRIES:
a) CNT: 599,533.860 oz
total: 599,533.860 oz
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withdrawals:
4 ENTRIES
i) Out of Asahi: 83,618.400 oz
ii) Out of CNT 313,968.105 oz
iii) Out of Manfra; 29,252.588 oz
iv) Out of Stonex: 30,364.540 oz
TOTAL WITHDRAWAL: 457,,203.633oz
adjustments : //
dealer to customer
a) Brinks 20,196.779 oz
customer to dealer:
b) CNT 646,997.260 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 101.565 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 334.670Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR NOV
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 365 FOR A LOSS OF 18 CONTRACTS .
ON FRIDAY WE HAD 8.580 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY. TODAY 9.155 MILLION OZ FOR A GAIN OF 115,000 OZ OR A QUEUE JUMP OF 115 CONTRACTS.
.
DECEMBER LOST 5299 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 70,586
JANUARY GAINED 12 C0NTRACTS TO 1,017 OI
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:136 or 680,000oz
CONFIRMED volumeFRIDAY; 66,395 fair/
AND NOW NOV DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1502 X5,000 oz = 7.510MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of NOV. and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2026 contract month: (1502 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV (354 minus number of notices served upon today ( 136 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the NOV .contract month equating to 9.155 MILLION OZ t
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 101.565million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 125.080 ///334.670million: 37.42%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
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NOV9 WITH GOLD UP $36.20 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 0.8600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.37 TONNNES
NOV6 WITH GOLD DOWN $32.30 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 2.850 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.51 TONNNES
NOV4 WITH GOLD UP $133.00 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.850 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.66 TONNNES
NOV3 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.35 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.51 TONNNES
NOV2 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.65TONNNES
OCT 30/ WITH GOLD DOWN $129.60 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.08TONNNES
0CT 29 2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 2,56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043,34 TONNNES
OCT 28/2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23,45 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD..INVENTORY REST AT 1041,65 TONNES
0CT 27/ WITH GOLD UP $38.30//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.. A WITHDDRAWAL OF ,65 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD..INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040,80 TONNES
OCT 26/ WITH GOLD UP $28,40 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GKD.. A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAK IF 16.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD..INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.47 TONNES
OCT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.62 TONNES
OCT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $87.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.18 TONNES
OCT 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $8.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 20//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 19//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 5.13 TONNES OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.91 TONNES
OCT 15//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.21 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.20 TONNES
OCT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $66.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
OCT 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF OF 2.281TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 12//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.13 TONNES
OCT 9//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.562 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 8//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.703 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.873 TONNES
OCT 7//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 6//2026/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.754 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 5//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
OCT 2//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.55 TONNES
OCT 1//2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.711 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
SEPT 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 2.847 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.407 TONNES
SEPT 29//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 25//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 24//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.84 TONNES
SEPT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1041.37 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
NOV 9// WITH SILVER UP $0.65// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3540 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.081 MILLION OZ
NOV 6// WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35// NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: ../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.435 MILLION OZ
NOV 4// WITH SILVER UP $2.44// SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 242,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.435 MILLION OZ
NOV 3// WITH SILVER DOWN $1.05// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.656 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.677 MILLION OZ
NOV 2// WITH SILVER UP $1.55// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.34 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.021 MILLION OZ
OCT 30// WITH SILVER DOWN $3.06// NO CHANGES AT THE SKV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.334 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLLION OZ
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTOR RESTS AT 498,327 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/ WITH SILVER UP $0.25 NO CHANCES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/ WITH SILVER UP 0.25 SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 451,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.94 : :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.72 : : SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 632,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 : : STRONG CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 858,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.508 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 : :NO CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 943,000 OZ INTO OUT OF SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.650 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :MEGA HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 4.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.593 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 406,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.219 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 : :SMALL CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.813 MILLION OZ
OCT 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.62 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 948,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.226 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 532,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.278 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 451,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.910 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.57 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.400 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 994,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.978 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.984 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.813 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.533 MILLION OZ
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.716 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.346 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.062 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.10 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.265 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.823 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.636 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.91 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.50 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 505.081 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO//RAVEN
2/ ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Gold and silver: beneficiaries of credit chaos
MacleodFinance put out a note this morning pointing out that financing data centres is coming badly unstuck. The risk is that it will spill over into the wider stockmarket.
Never has the phrase, “get out of credit” had greater meaning than now. The equity bubble looks overdue to burst, without waiting for a rise in US bond yields to the 5.5%-6% level we have been expecting. The loss of momentum in AI and related stocks, coupled with technical weakness in bank stocks, suggests a credit crisis is with us now.
Before you reach for bonds, it’s worth pointing out that when the intial intervention wears off a credit crisis raises bond yields as well, so they do not provide an escape from the equity bear.
This is how it’s likely to pan out.
— A credit crisis spreads to listed stocks, particularly hitting those where levered positions are held. Therefore, NASDAQ is the most vulnerable index along with their equivalents in Japan, Korea, et al. Followed by the S&P500.
— Banks will start calling in broker loans, which according to FINRA total some $1.45 trillion. Hedge funds owe a further $2.5 trillion, much of which is financed overnight through repos. With prime brokers refusing to take off-the-run bonds as repo collateral (due to poor marketability), this $12.5 trillion market at the heart of the system gets into trouble.
— The Fed has to come to the rescue. It must stand there to backstop the entire U.S. Treasury market, buying a minimum of hundreds of billions of bonds. Note that in March 2020 when off-the-runs were similarly unmarketable, the Fed had to offer to buy up to $500 billion of these Treasuries and $200 billion of agency bonds. It will be much, much more today.
— The Fed will coordinate enhanced swap lines with other G7 central banks for the purpose of market intervention. But these are unlikely to be sufficient to stabilise markets on their own.
— With securities loans being called in, bank credit will be contracting, much to the alarm of the authorities. Meanwhile, foreign holders of equities will be recording significant losses, reducing the total value of their U.S. equity holdings from a notional $25 trillion just a month ago. They will almost certainly start selling at any price into falling prices, and selling the dollars realised.
Clearly, once the run starts, all forms of credit will suffer losses, and the entire banking system will come under threat. We can be sure that the authorities will move heaven and earth to ensure no bank actually ceases trading and depositors are protected. Policy priorities rapidly change from inflation targeting to whatever it takes to save the system, including at the expense of the dollar itself.
Now we come to gold and silver.
While macro traders’ gut reaction may be to write down gold and silver, the fact is investors have none to sell. Gold ETFs in North American portfolios average 0.3% by value. Instead, at-the-margin foreign selling of U.S. credit will drive gold, silver, and other physical commodities higher in a general rush out of paper. Gold could easily double in the credit crisis that is developing in only four to six months, with silver quadrupling.
END
CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
Sound Money Defense League’s Jp Cortez discusses its work in interview with Charlotte McLeod
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2026-11-08 10:21Section: Daily Dispatches
10:19a ET Sunday, November 8, 2026
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The Sound Money Defense League’s executive director, Jp Cortez, interviewed by Investing News Network’s Charlotte McLeod at the New Orleans Investment Conference last week, describes the league’s success with gold- and silver-related legislation among U.S. states. They also discuss the Trump administration’s strange abandonment of calls for an audit of the U.S. gold reserve, as well as prospects for an official revaluation of gold.
The interview is 19 minutes long and can be viewed at the Investing News Network’s channel at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
A road trip through Venezuela’s gold route
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2026-11-07 13:16Section: Daily Dispatches
By Isabella Rocafull
Caracas Chronicles, Caracas, Venezuela
Saturday, November 7, 2026
This journey begins at 5:30 in the morning, with a small cup of guayoyo coffee to prepare for more than 12 hours of driving from Puerto Ordaz to Santa Elena de Uairen. After strapping two large fuel containers to the truck’s roof, we set off to cross Bolívar state, almost as large as Wyoming.
Soon we’ll see long lines of cars waiting around gas stations down the road — not because of scarcity, but because they would resell the fuel in the mines.
The Troncal 10 highway, which once welcomed tourists and adventurers heading south to the Gran Sabana, cuts through Venezuela’s most important gold-mining region. Since the Maduro years, however, traveling there means entering towns entirely reshaped by the involvement of organized crime. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
China extends gold-buying streak to two years as prices drop
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2026-11-07 09:48Section: Daily Dispatches
By Yihui Xie
Bloomberg News
Saturday, November 7, 2026
China’s central bank added to its gold reserves in October — extending a buying streak to two years — as the precious metal fell almost 7% to end the month below the $4,000-an-ounce support threshold.
Bullion holdings at the People’s Bank of China rose by 830,000 ounces in October, or around 25.8 metric tons, according to official data released today. That’s the 24th consecutive month of accumulation.
In particular, the central bank has stepped up purchases in recent months as gold prices have slumped, with additions in the first 10 months of the year totaling around 129 metric tons.
PBOC was the biggest disclosed buyer among global central banks in the third quarter, World Gold Council data showed. Cumulative official-sector purchases reported by the WGC were a net 321 tons in the July to September period, the most since the final quarter of 2024. These accumulations remain a key support to gold prices in an otherwise tepid market. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Gold futures plunge was a U.S. Treasury intervention, Maguire tells “LFTV”
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2026-11-05 10:30Section: Daily Dispatches
10:31a ET Thursday, November 5, 2026
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
On this week’s episode of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, London metals trader Andrew Maguire says the recent plunge in gold futures prices amid an anomalous decline in the U.S. dollar was a U.S. government intervention to discourage sales of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Meanwhile, Maguire adds, even the U.S. government is surreptitiously acquiring physical gold along with China’s and other central banks in anticipation of the international gold market’s transfer from London to Hong Kong in the weeks ahead.
The program is 50 minutes long and can be viewed at the Kinesis Money channel at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
India’s tax hike drives illegal gold imports to three-year high
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2026-11-03 08:07Section: Daily Dispatches
By Yihui Xie and Preeti Soni
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
India’s illegal gold imports surged to the highest since 2023 in the third quarter as a government duty hike spurred use of unofficial channels, according to a report from the World Gold Council.
Informal shipments for July to September jumped more than 1,500% to 50 metric tons from 3 tons a year earlier, the producer-funded group said, citing data from consultancy Metals Focus. The report gave no details on how the trade is tracked.
Such imports typically go through avenues that avoid official duties, like smuggling or small quantities brought in by individuals. In the past, tax hikes have tended to “increase the incentive” for inflows through such channels, WGC added.
The informal bullion market in the world’s second-largest consumer has flourished since the government more than doubled import levies on gold and silver to 15% earlier this year. The move was as part of efforts to curb purchases as India tackles a ballooning trade deficit due to higher energy prices. …
… For the remainder of the report:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/297
5. COMMODITY REPORT ///GOLD//
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.61 PTS OR 0.32%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 32.91 PTS OR 0.13 %
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1,439.00 PTS OR 2.37%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.41%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6728
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6705 Oil DOWN TO 89.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 94.84 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING DOWN 6.6728OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.6705 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.6728
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.6705
1A.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 32.91 PTS OR 0.13%
1 B. SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.61 PTS OR 0.32%
2. Nikkei closed UP 1439.00 PTS OR 2.37%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 89.20
BRENT; 94.84
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN 46 BASIS PTS TO 101.72 EURO RISES TO 1.1194 UP 37 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.670 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 157.86… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.853 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN //CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN (6.6728 AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.6705
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yieldsHIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.2450 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 4.3240 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.8140
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 4.1140%
3j Gold at $4109.50 /Silver at: 52.71 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 37/ 100 roubles/82.31
3m oil (WTI) into the 89 dollar handle for WTI and 94 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.86 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.670% UP 4 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.8530 UP 4 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8184 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9167
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.8470 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…NOW BELOW 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.251 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.513 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 50.18 UP 15 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.1120 DOWN 4 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.5686 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
10 YEAR FRENCH BOND YIELD; 4.756 //DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.645 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.3540 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Rise As Dip Buyers Shrug Off Jensen’s Spy Scandal, Oil Slides On Iran Hopes
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 08:25 AM
US futures are higher as dip buyers return after the S&P’s worst week since April 2025, oil extends its biggest weekly drop since April 2020 on Iran diplomacy hopes, and the market decides that Jensen Huang’s affair with a suspected Chinese spy is an Nvidia problem rather than an AI problem, at least until the open; as a result, Treasuries are little changed with the 10Y at 4.86%. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.9% higher while Nasdaq futures gain 0.8% and Dow futures rise 1.1%, the latter a good read of where the money is going. Cash stocks closed Friday with the S&P up 0.31% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.4%, but that barely dented a week in which the S&P lost 2.7% and the Philly semi index fell 12%. In premarket trading the Mag 7 ex-Nvidia is green, with Nvidia down between 4.4% and 4.9% after the board launched an independent probe, while KKR, IFF and Barrick are higher and Dole slides. The day’s driver is oil (again): WTI is down 3.5% to $87.66 and Brent is down 3.8% to $94.59 after Trump told CNN that further strikes on Iran are highly unlikely if talks progress, with a further leg lower on an unconfirmed report that Iran softened its Hormuz demands. Treasuries are mixed and the curve is twist-flattening, with the 2Y around 4.53% as markets price roughly a 79% chance of a December Fed hike; bunds are slightly weaker. The Bloomberg dollar index is down 0.4%, with the kiwi leading G-10 after New Zealand’s incumbent National Party emerged from the election with a path back to power. In commodities, gold is up 0.6% around $4,097, silver gains 1.3% near $52.60 and copper is firmer; bitcoin holds around $74,000. US economic data slate includes September final wholesale inventories (10am) and the NY Fed one-year inflation expectations (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (8:40am), Goolsbee (10am) and Barkin (12:15pm). The Treasury sells $58 billion in 3-year notes at 1pm; US bond markets are shut Wednesday for Veterans Day.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher, with one very conspicuous exception: Nvidia is underperforming Magnificent Seven peers as the chip giant’s board launched an investigation into CEO Jensen Huang, following his admission of an affair with a woman identified in a series of reports as a suspected Chinese spy
- Amazon (AMZN) +2.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.6%, Meta Platforms (META) +1.5%, Microsoft (MSFT) +1.3%, Apple (AAPL) +0.7%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.5%, Nvidia (NVDA) -4.9%.
- Barrick Mining (B) rises 2% after the company reaffirmed its gold production forecast for the full year.
- CECO Environmental (CECO) gains 28% after the manufacturer of water treatment equipment posted quarterly results.
- Constellation Energy (CEG) climbs 2% after the company boosted its adjusted operating earnings per share guidance for the full year.
- Dole (DOLE) falls 8% after the fruit producer’s adjusted Ebitda for the third quarter fell short of the consensus estimate and management cut its annual guidance for the metric, citing a “higher cost environment.”
- DraftKings (DKNG) falls 2% as analysts cut their price target on the stock.
- Greenfire Resources (GFR) rises 38% after Strathcona Resources agreed to buy the company at a total transaction value of as much as $2.9 billion.
- JetBlue Airways (JBLU) gains 3% after executives reassured employees that the carrier has no plans to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
- KKR & Co. (KKR) rises 1% after reporting a third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates as the “mini Berkshire” unit that holds long-term private equity bets mitigated a slump at its Global Atlantic insurance arm.
- Monday.com (MNDY) falls 5% after the software company posted third quarter results and provided fourth quarter guidance.
NRG (NRG) rises 4% after entering into a definitive agreement to sell six natural-gas fired generation assets totaling 4.9 GW to LS Power, for a purchase price of $4 billion in cash proceeds.
In other corporate news, Nvidia’s board opened an independent investigation after Huang told staff of the relationship, and Trump, in a rare moment of HR solidarity, said Huang should stay on; Microsoft is reportedly winding down its Oracle AI cloud rental deal (from Friday); OpenAI closed roughly $11 billion of initial funding at a $1.25 trillion valuation; Anthropic is reportedly targeting an IPO before Thanksgiving raising $80-100 billion; NRG will sell 4.9 GW of gas assets to LS Power for $4 billion in cash; CNH agreed to sell 70% of its construction equipment unit to a Kobe Steel affiliate; Brad Jacobs is said to be nearing a $1 billion investment in CKX Lands; Coca-Cola filed draft papers for an IPO of its Indian bottling unit; Children’s Place filed for Chapter 11; Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production in about eight months, per Musk; Akamai plans $2.2 billion and Dropbox $1 billion of convertible notes.
Globally, stocks are stabilizing after last week’s AI liquidation, with the rebound led by Asia and a Europe that never fell as far. Thursday’s 4.8% Nasdaq 100 break below the 200-DMA was among the deepest on record, and Bloomberg notes that breaks of over 3% have historically taken about 25 trading days to reclaim. Almost $7 trillion of S&P and Nasdaq futures notional traded last week, a record, as we noted over the weekend; the market’s new problem is that the most important man in AI now has a Washington problem too.
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Kunjar Sobhani says the board probe should not change near-term sales or product estimates but raises key-man risk, given Huang’s unusually central role and no clear successor; Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon makes the same point. The bigger question from the midterms, namely whether a Democratic Congress slows the AI buildout, has not gone away, with Goldman’s Alec Phillips estimating that up to around 40% of planned capacity could be affected by state-level wins in Texas, Georgia and Ohio.
The sell side is split on whether the bottom is in. JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas sees the selloff as nearly exhausted and reiterates his 8,000 year-end S&P target, arguing this was a deleveraging event with momentum crowding reset from the 100th to the 76th percentile; Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson also sees the correction nearing an end. On the other side, Citi downgraded US equities and global tech in favor of Europe, and Panmure Liberum’s Mark Taylor warns that flushing the election reaction does not make it the low.
Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky, who runs EMEA 1D trading, thinks Nasdaq futures would be up a lot more absent the Huang story, but reads it as a company-specific problem rather than a verdict on AI, and says CoreWeave on Tuesday and Nebius on Thursday will tell us more about the trade. He describes last week’s positioning damage in US long/short TMT as extraordinary, the biggest gross cut since Covid and the biggest net cut since Liberation Day, and argues the post-midterm rally died within a day once traders noticed the contradiction of hating AI capex while loving the broader economy. On AI, he is unconvinced by the long-term bear case built on power, permits and politics: if demand is real, capacity simply moves elsewhere, with Mississippi’s courtship of xAI and AWS his example. His medium-term worry is oversupply, as efficiency gains and smaller models compress the cost per token faster than demand grows. Tactically he sees semis as painfully oversold and would go up the quality curve first, to ASML and TSMC, noting that lower energy, retracing rates and tighter credit have improved the macro backdrop even as the Nasdaq’s break of its 200-day makes dip buying harder. With CTA supply of $25 billion or more still modeled this week and CPI on deck, his best-case outcome is a range-bound market that lets implied vol fall and systematic demand rebuild.
JPM’s Market Intel desk says the tech trade is stabilizing but the market prefers the ex-AI, broadening trade, with Europe outperforming and premarket action pointing to an everything rally that a weaker Nvidia may cap. Mike Feroli’s team, meanwhile, sees the Fed on track for a December hike and looks for tomorrow’s CPI at +0.25% headline and +0.23% core. Goldman’s desks are less sanguine in the near term: models show another $25 billion or more of potential CTA S&P supply this week, and Mark Garrett’s tally has $28 billion over a week and $45 billion over a month, while the high-touch desk has sold about $30 billion of tech since the decline began. Fundamental long/short net leverage is in the first percentile of the past year. Goldman’s Jim Schneider calls semis clearly oversold after a 31% fall since Oct. 1, while Tony Pasquariello flags that the AI buildout is at its highest risk in four years. Goldman’s specialist has flagged the level to watch, and credit, as we noted, has barely blinked.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.7% at about 653, led by basic resources, banks and health care as cheaper oil and stronger-than-expected Chinese PPI help; consumer products, telecoms and food and beverage lag. UniCredit jumped on record profit and raised guidance, while Credit Agricole’s merger pitch sent Banco BPM up 11%. JPM’s baskets show Defense, Ceasefire plays and Semis leading, with Homebuilders and Luxury lagging. Here are the biggest European movers:
- UniCredit gains as much as 6.3% after reporting stronger-than-expected 3Q earnings and raising its 2026 profit outlook, supported by higher revenue and lower costs.
- Sanofi rises as much as 2% after BNP Paribas analysts including Peter Verdult raised the recommendation on the French drugmaker to outperform from neutral, saying the near-term earnings power of its anti-inflammatory drug Dupixent is overlooked.
- Valneva shares rise as much as 9.1% after the biotechnology company reported positive results from trials of its vaccine candidate against shigellosis.
- Autostore gains as much as 10% as DNB Carnegie upgrades to buy on potential boost for the Norwegian warehouse automation firm from Amazon’s sub-same-day (SSD) network.
- Hochtief shares slide as much as 7.1% after Spanish engineering company ACS SA said Saturday afternoon that it hasn’t considered a tender offer for its listed German subsidiary, nor a sale of shares in Hochtief-owned US builder Turner Construction Co.
- Schott Pharma shares drop as much as 4.4% after UBS cut the German maker of syringes to neutral from buy, with analysts including Olivier Calvet citing the risk of weaker glass syringe demand.
- Kingspan shares drop as much as 4.4% after the building materials company posted a trading update. Analysts said sales gained momentum in the third quarter compared to the first half, although JPMorgan said growth was still short of its expectations.
- Kainos shares fall as much as 11% after the British IT services firm maintained guidance for the full year, which analysts see as conservative given better-than-expected revenue and bookings in the first half.
Asian stocks surged, with Taiwan’s Taiex up 4.9% after authorities curbed short selling and put a NT$500 billion stabilization fund on standby, ending a seven-day slide; TSMC gained about 4.7% and MediaTek hit its limit. The MSCI Asia Pacific rose as much as 2.8%, the biggest gain since July. The Nikkei added 2.3% and the Topix 3%, though Goldman’s Japan desk notes AI names faded late and investors remain unconvinced into year-end. The Kospi faded a 2% early rise to close down 0.6%, barely above 5,000; the Hang Seng slipped 0.1% as Goldman’s HK desk saw liquidity drawn toward Taiwan, and China lagged after HSBC cut mainland stocks to neutral. China’s PPI accelerated to 5.7% while CPI slowed to 0.7%. Singapore and Malaysia were closed.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.4% with the dollar weaker against all G-10 peers. The kiwi leads, up about 1.2% on the election result, sterling is up 0.5% to 1.3422 and the euro is up 0.4% around 1.1186. USD/JPY is down 0.3% near 158 after Japan confirmed three rounds of summer intervention totalling JPY 15.4 trillion. Korea’s won jumped as much as 1.3% on exporter dollar sales.
In rates, Treasuries are mixed with the curve subtly flattening: front-end yields are up almost 2bps, the long end is lower by about 1bp, 2s10s is about 1.5bps flatter and the 10Y is little changed around 4.86%. Bunds are slightly weaker around 123.00 and gilts marginally outperform on lower energy prices, with attention on the race between Klaas Knot and Pablo Hernandez de Cos to succeed Lagarde. The $58 billion 3-year auction at 1pm comes with a 4.598% when-issued, about 34bps richer than October’s stop; $42 billion 10-years follow Tuesday and $25 billion 30-years Thursday. IG issuance slate is empty so far, with dealers looking for about $40 billion this week, a modest ask after the hyperscalers blew through their full-year debt forecasts.
In commodities, WTI is down 3.5% at $87.66 and Brent down 3.8% at $94.59 after a very busy weekend in which Trump played down renewed strikes, Rubio called Iran’s demands unacceptable, the IRGC insisted Hormuz stays closed and Houthi missiles damaged an Aramco building in Riyadh. An unconfirmed report that Iran eased its Hormuz demands added to the selling. Trump meets Qatar’s prime minister at noon ET. Goldman’s Tony Kim sees low to mid-80s Brent on a full resolution and 115 on the upside, while hedge funds have been dumping length. Dutch TTF is firmer after a drone attack halted Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field. Spot gold is up around $4,097, helped by the PBoC’s 24th straight month of purchases, silver is near $52.60 and copper is firmer around $13,800.
US economic data slate includes September final wholesale inventories (10am) and October NY Fed one-year inflation expectations (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (8:40am), Goolsbee (10am) and Barkin (12:15pm). KKR, Constellation Energy and Barrick report before the open, Take-Two and Trade Desk after the close; Mettler-Toledo holds an investor day.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Trump says further Iran strikes are “highly unlikely” if negotiations progress, while Rubio calls Tehran’s demands unacceptable: CNN, Newsquawk
- US and Iran are quietly negotiating a deal to avert a return to all-out war, though Washington is tempering hopes: CNN
- Oil falls on an unconfirmed report that Iran eased its Hormuz demands: BBG
- Houthi attack damages Aramco offices in Riyadh; Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field halted after a drone strike: BBG, Newsquawk
- Trump to meet Qatar’s PM at noon ET on a new ceasefire and renewed nuclear talks: Axios
- Nvidia’s board launches an independent probe after Huang admits an affair with a woman identified as a suspected Chinese spy: BBG
- Microsoft is winding down its Oracle deal to rent AI cloud capacity: BBG
- Anthropic plans an IPO before Thanksgiving, seeking $80-100 billion at a $1.25-1.75 trillion valuation: FT
- OpenAI secures about $11 billion in initial funding at a $1.25 trillion valuation: BBG
- Alphabet has discussed offering Hong Kong and Singapore dollar bonds: BBG
- China extends its suspension of the extra 24% tariff on US goods and port fees for two months: BBG
- US warns China to fulfil the Busan truce, saying rare earth commitments are only two-thirds met: FT
- China October PPI accelerates to 5.7% y/y, the fastest since June 2022, while CPI slows to 0.7%: BBG
- Hedge funds sold global tech at one of the fastest paces on record last week; US Info Tech net allocation is 14.4%, near multi-year lows: GSPB, BBG
- PBoC added 830,000 ounces of gold in October, a 24th straight month of purchases: BBG
- Israeli opposition leader Eisenkot was tasked with forming a government, with up to six weeks to do it: BBG
- House GOP leaders brace for enough defections to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth this week: Axios
- Trump tells 60 Minutes his deportation approach may have been too tough on longtime residents: CBS
- Knot says he is open to new tools against a European debt crisis if named ECB President: FT
- Lagarde tells Yomiuri that inflation will stay high for quarters to come: Yomiuri
- Japan confirms three rounds of summer yen intervention, totalling JPY 15.4 trillion: MoF
- New Zealand’s National-led coalition is narrowly ahead after the weekend election: BBG
- Fed’s Daly says inflation remains too high and calls for further tightening: Newsquawk
- S&P revises Poland’s outlook to negative: S&P
Asia-Pac stocks started the week on a broadly positive footing, as tech names followed the price action seen in their US peers on Friday. Despite the bounce, analysts see this as short-lived, as flows suggested that investors used Friday’s bounce to cut risk on both sides. Leading gains across Asia was Taiwan, after the FSC announced short-selling restrictions while the Finance Ministry said it is prepared to deploy its TWD 500bln stock market stabilisation fund. ASX 200 was the slight laggard, spending the majority of the session in the red before managing to eke out mild gains. Another big bank reported earnings, with ANZ’s FY cash profit slightly beating estimates; however, shares are lower. Nikkei 225 followed Taiwan’s TAIEX higher, printed gains of over 3% and regained the 59k handle. KOSPI was initially lower by as much as 1%, but managed to scale back most of that downside. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng opened higher, in line with the broader market sentiment. Inflation metrics were mixed for October, with headline CPI Y/Y printing at 0.7% (exp. 0.8%) while the PPI metric accelerated to 5.7% (exp. 5.3%).
Top Asian News
- Chinese banks have reportedly sharply increased USD deposit rates in recent weeks, with some rates exceeding 4%, while exporters are hoarding dollar cash, according to sources.
- China’s CPCA reported October passenger vehicle sales of 1.65mln units, down 27.3% Y/Y. Tesla (TSLA) exports 59,012 units. BYD (1211 HK) exports 165.2k units.
- The Japanese government reportedly begins discussions on a subsidy programme to partially cover cybersecurity costs for regional banks, with a budget expected to total several billion yen, Kyodo reported.
- Market stabilisation measures are evolving into a long-term component of the country’s financial governance framework, moving beyond temporary responses to short-term market volatility, according to China Securities Times.
ECB President Lagarde told Yomiuri Shimbun that headline inflation in October was higher than the ECB expected a few months ago but in line with market expectations and that inflation numbers will remain high in the quarters to come. She reiterated that they currently do not see signs of second-round effects beyond what is incorporated in their projections. She highlighted that it is not appropriate to pre-empt inflation forecasts but noted that the energy futures curve has risen since their September projections. She reiterated data-dependence and a meeting-by-meeting basis. On the use of TPI, if necessary, she said they have multiple tools and a big toolbox. ECB Presidential candidate de Cos told Tages-Anzeiger that second-round effects haven’t appeared so far but vigilance is needed regarding inflation risks. ECB Presidential candidate Knot said he is open to developing new tools to combat a potential European debt crisis if appointed ECB President, according to the FT. The EU and the UK are reportedly in the final stages of an agreement to link their emissions trading systems, with an announcement expected at a summit later this month, according to Bloomberg sources. The deal would allow cross-border trading of carbon permits, boost market liquidity and reduce carbon border taxes for companies, with negotiators having agreed on emissions caps, supply controls and free permits. UK Government’s Milburn NEET review is to be published next week, Politico reported citing sources. US Secretary of State Rubio to meet with French President Macron at 17:45GMT/12:45EST. Morningstar DBRS confirms Germany at AAA; trend stable. S&P revises Poland’s outlook to negative; affirms ‘A-/A-2’ foreign currency ratings; lowers local currency ratings to ‘A-/A-2’.
Top European News
- German Trade Balance (Sep) 15.6B vs. Exp. 19.2B (Prev. 19.5B); German Exports (Sep MM) 2.0% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.8%); German Imports (Sep MM) 4.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.9%).
- EU and UK are near a deal linking their carbon trading systems.
- The UK’s Milburn NEET review is due next week.
- Morningstar DBRS affirmed Germany at AAA.
FX
- DXY is slightly softer within a narrow 101.81-102.28 range, consolidating after Friday’s upside on the strong US jobs report; market pricing sees a 79% chance of a Fed hike in December. The index currently holds within Friday’s 101.49-102.36 range, above its 50DMA (101.12). The US docket is relatively busy this afternoon, with Fed’s Goolsbee and Barkin, the NY Fed SCE and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow, alongside a 3-year note auction.
- EUR/USD is firmer at the top end of a 1.1134-1.1196 range. Outgoing ECB President Lagarde told Japanese press that inflation numbers will remain high in the quarters to come, while reiterating that the ECB does not see signs of second-round effects beyond what is incorporated in its projections. A light EZ docket, with German Trade Balance doing little to shift the currency this morning.
- GBP/USD is firmer at the top of a 1.3340-1.3420 range, having bounced from 1.3340, and now sits above its 21 and 50DMAs (1.3348 and 1.3357), testing its 100DMA at 1.3392. EUR/GBP trades within a 0.8337-0.8349 range. Focus this week is on Thursday’s UK GDP, while BoE Governor Bailey speaks later today at 17:25GMT.
- USD/JPY is softer within a 157.87-158.53 range, holding beneath its 200DMA at 158.66. Japan’s MoF confirmed three yen-buying interventions over the summer totalling JPY 15.4tln.
- Antipodeans are firmer, supported by the upbeat risk tone in Asia and strength in precious metals. NZD/USD outperforms peers and trades within a 0.5554-0.5603 range, above Friday’s 0.5599 high, helped by the weekend’s elections, where PM Luxon’s National Party-led coalition is narrowly ahead with 67 of 130 parliamentary seats after 97% of votes counted. AUD/USD is firmer within a 0.6854-0.6905 range, though beneath its 21DMA at 0.6983.
- USD/CNH trades flat within a 6.6660-6.6744 range, with little reaction to China’s October inflation metrics, in which CPI was softer at 0.7% Y/Y (exp. 0.8%), while PPI accelerated to 5.7% (exp. 5.3%).
Central Banks
- RBA’s Hunter sees limited AI productivity effects so far and flags financial stability risks.
- ECB candidates Knot and de Cos both stressed vigilance on inflation and tools.
Fixed Income
- A modestly bullish start to the session, amid energy downside and some early equity pressure in Nvidia indications hitting the broader tech space, with NQ -0.9% at most. However, this has since moderated to a mixed/bearish performance, with fixed faltering somewhat as energy comes off lows and the NQ returns to unchanged.
- USTs in relatively modest 106-30 to 107-07+ confines, but now essentially flat within that. The day ahead for the US features supply and a handful of data points, but it will primarily be focused on tech and geopolitics. See equities and commodities respectively for more.
- For Bunds the narrative has been much the same, lower by about 15 ticks as things stand, holding around the 123.00 handle in 122.91 to 123.29 confines. Focus for the bloc is on a meeting of EU officials regarding the next ECB President; though, an announcement is not expected until the Council gathering at the end of the month. de Cos and Knot remain the two main contenders, the latter speaking to the FT overnight.
- Gilts in-fitting, marginally outperforming on account of the pressure seen in energy and potentially in anticipation of the Milburn NEET review being published next week, a review that may signal some welfare changes during the Burnham premiership. Firmer by a few ticks, but off best and failed to breach 87.00 earlier in the session.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are lower and extending to fresh session lows, with Brent now beneath Friday’s trough. The initial weakness at the open was driven by US President Trump’s comments that further military action against Iran is highly unlikely if negotiations progress, while Secretary of State Rubio’s downbeat remarks and reports of continued strikes in the Strait of Hormuz briefly limited the downside, before a fresh bout of weakness into the European open without a clear headline catalyst (see below for a recap of geopolitics). Focus later today is on Trump’s meeting with the Qatari PM at 17:00GMT, centred on a new ceasefire and resuming nuclear negotiations with Iran.
- WTI Dec’26 trades within a USD 89.29-91.42/bbl range (vs Friday’s USD 89.07-92.53/bbl range), while Brent Jan’27 moves within USD 96.11-98.43/bbl (vs Friday’s USD 96.67-100.83/bbl range).
- Dutch TTF is firmer within a EUR 85.65-87.75/MWh range, potentially as Dana Gas confirmed production at Iraq’s Khor Mor gas facility has been suspended after a drone attack, whilst traders keep an eye on weather heading into the winter.
- Spot gold is firmer but has pared gains back beneath USD 4,100/oz, within a USD 4,054.49-4,134.18/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 4,027.04-4,107.00/oz range), with earlier support from data showing the PBoC added 830K ounces of gold to its reserves in October, extending its buying streak to 24 consecutive months. The yellow metal holds above its 21DMA at USD 4,069/oz. Spot silver is firmer within a USD 51.41-53.46/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 51.20-52.37/oz range), also off best levels.
- 3M LME copper is firmer within a USD 13,801.85-13,923.18/t range (vs Friday’s USD 13,637.38-13,832.83/t range), though it has faded to the bottom of the range after benefiting from the constructive risk tone in Asia, whilst Chinese PPI printed hotter than expected.
- In geopolitics, US President Trump told CNN it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress is made in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Secretary of State Rubio said talks with Iran are not productive as Iranian demands are unacceptable. This morning, the IRGC spokesman said the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, and Iran’s Army spokesman said its military doctrine is moving towards aggression. More recently, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran’s two-day proposal is the most reasonable proposal on the table and that Iran will not compromise on its national interests, adding that the US must end its naval blockade and the war for diplomacy to proceed. Elsewhere, an oil refinery in Russia’s Leningrad region was set on fire following a drone attack, according to the regional governor.
- The Japanese government is to reduce the burden of LPG and kerosene use, Kyodo reported.
- Dana Gas confirmed that the Khor Mor facility in Iraq’s Kurdistan region was targeted in a drone attack and the production has been suspended while the damage is being assessed.
- South Korea’s Finance Minister said the USD 10bln remittance for a US nuclear project will only proceed after a full business feasibility review is completed. The project remains at a preliminary stage and will be carefully assessed.
Trade/Tariffs
- China is to extend the suspension of export controls targeting US firms for two months, reports suggest.
- The US warned China that it must immediately fulfil the terms of the trade truce struck by US President Trump and Chinese President Xi in Busan in October 2025, according to the FT. US officials said China is fulfilling only two-thirds of its rare earth commitments and has failed to increase supply.
- China’s MoF suspended the 24% additional tariff on US imports for two months, keeping the 10% tariff rate in place, effective November 10. Additionally, China’s transport ministry said it is to continue suspending special port fees on US ships until January 10, 2027.
- China’s MOFCOM firmly opposed the sanctioning of two Chinese companies and urged the US to promptly correct its mistaken practices and said it reserves the right to take necessary measures and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
- Canadian PM Carney said Canada will continue to work with the Americans to get a trade deal that works for Canada.
- US Treasury Department added eight Canadian firms to its sanctions list for conducting business with Iran.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US CENTCOM said its commander directed the establishment of a task force on November 7 to support US government efforts to prevent Iran from transporting advanced weapons and other materials via ground routes.
- US CENTCOM said its forces disabled a St. Kitts-flagged commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman on November 7 after the civilian crew ignored repeated warnings and made multiple attempts to breach the US naval blockade against Iran.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said the outcome of the US elections requires time to assess before determining next steps, with intermediaries having had no contact in recent days due to the result. He added that conditions will need time to improve before mediation efforts resume, according to IRNA. In other comments, Araghchi said US voters have made their choice and that it is up to the White House to decide, while adding that Iran’s “48-hour proposal” remains on the table.
- Initial reports indicated that two missiles struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, with no official information on potential damage, according to Tasnim News Agency. However, Iranian media suggested that the explosions were related to Iranian military activities, rather than US strikes. Separately, IRNA reported explosions in Iran’s Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas, with some sources attributing the sounds to warning shots at violating ships in Hormuz. Furthermore, launches targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly heard from Sirik.
- Iran’s Navy said a tanker transiting a closed zone east of the Strait of Hormuz struck a mine and caught fire after switching off its navigation system, and added that the Strait will remain closed to non-compliant vessels until all threats are removed.
- An Iraqi delegation reportedly visited Tehran and met Iranian officials to deliver a message from the US, according to Al Hadath citing sources.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran’s two-day proposal is the most reasonable proposal on the table; said Iran will not be compromising on its national interests.
- Iran’s Army Spokesman Akraminia said “Iran’s military doctrine is moving towards aggression upon the order of the Commander-in-Chief”.
- China’s Middle East envoy meets Iran’s Deputy National Security Council Secretary during a visit to Tehran, Al Hadath reported.
- An Israeli official said an additional attack on Iran will reduce its capabilities, Al Arabiya reported.
- Clashes reported between government forces and the Yemeni Houthis in Taiz, Al Araby reported.
- Recent Russian contacts with Iran came at the request of the US, which asked Moscow to mediate and persuade Tehran to hold direct talks with the US, reported Al Araby Al Jadeed.
- Iran’s military doctrine is moving towards aggression, under the orders of the Commander-in-Chief, reported SNN.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said they can negotiate and resolve issues with dignity.
- IRGC Spokesman Mohebbi said the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, Defa press reported.
- IRGC Navy official said no vessels transited through the unauthorised route due to the destruction of navigational aid systems in Southern Hormuz, IRIB reported.
- IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi said the Strait of Hormuz is fully under Iranian Naval control and warns that non-compliant vessels risk hitting mines until Tehran’s conditions are met, Press TV reported.
- IRGC said it intercepted and destroyed a 16th US MQ-1 drone over Qeshm Island.
- A Hormozgan provincial official said US forces struck targets on Qeshm Island, although the attacks caused no damage to residential or commercial areas or vital infrastructure, according to IRNA.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the IAEA visited Bushehr in recent days.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Oil refinery in Russia’s Leningrad region set on fire following a drone attack, according to the regional governor.
- Russian Defense Ministry said a vessel carrying cargo for the Ukrainian armed forces was damaged in the Black Sea and a power substation near Cherkasy was damaged, IFX reported.
- A Russian official said drones hit an industrial area in Kirishi in Russia’s Leningrad region.
- US President Trump tells CBS’ 60 Minutes that he expects a different shape of Ukraine when the war ends. Political Changes. He will be making a few changes to the cabinet.
Crypto
- Bitcoin is a touch lower this morning, holding around the USD 74k mark. Ethereum underperforms, but holds on to USD 2.1k.
US Event Calendar
- 10:00am: Sep F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%
- 11:00am: Oct NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 11:30am: $95 billion 13-week bills; $82 billion 26-week bills
- 1:00pm: $58 billion 3-year notes; $100 billion 6-week bills
Central Bank Speakers
- 8:40am: Fed’s Bowman
- 10:00am: Fed’s Goolsbee in moderated Q&A
- 12:15pm: Fed’s Barkin
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Last week was certainly a week to remember — or forget — in markets, depending on your point of view and positioning. Usually we save the weekly recap until the end on a Monday but there were some big moves work highlighting as we start a new week. The S&P 500 fell -2.68% (+0.31% Friday), marking its worst weekly performance since April 2025. Moreover, the most AI-exposed areas saw even bigger declines, with the Philly semiconductor index down -12.15% (+4.21% Friday), whilst CoreWeave fell another -15.44% (+6.28% Friday). However rotation meant Consumers Discretionary (+2.68%) and Communications Services (+2.26%) led five sectors out of the 11 top level ones that rose last week, with Energy (-11.93%) actually performing worse than IT (-6.93%).
Outside the US, Japan’s Nikkei fell -9.25% (-5.96% Friday), marking its worst weekly performance since the pandemic turmoil in March 2020. However, Europe’s STOXX 600 managed to eke out a +0.24% gain (-1.00% Friday), reflecting Europe’s smaller exposure to the tech sector and a boost from falling oil prices.
Indeed, whilst AI fears gathered pace, there was a huge slump in oil prices as investor fears eased about a potential escalation in the Middle East. The current active Brent crude contract for January 2027 fell -13.32% (+0.03% Friday), taking it down to $98.32/bbl. So along with the risk-off tone from the AI selloff, that helped to bring down sovereign bond yields around the world. So the 10yr Treasury yield fell -7.2bps (+2.1bps Friday) to 4.86%, whilst the 10yr bund yield fell -6.9bps (+1.4bps Friday) to 3.25%. In part, that recovery on Friday followed the US jobs report for October, which showed payrolls rising by +165k (vs. +70k expected), along with +84k of positive revisions to the previous two months. So that brought the 3-month moving average of payrolls up to +137k, whilst the unemployment rate also fell to 4.1% (vs. 4.2% expected). Credit was actually fairly flat on both sides of the Atlantic but the risk-off tone in equities meant it was a good week for gold, which was up +5.06% (-0.42% Friday) in its best week since August.
We move on from payrolls to US inflation as the main macro focus this week, with October CPI tomorrow and PPI on Friday, alongside a busy slate of Fed speakers. Beyond the US, the key releases include China’s trade figures tomorrow, UK Q3 GDP on Thursday, and Japan’s October PPI on Thursday, while the corporate calendar includes Cisco, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz and SoftBank as Q3 winds down after another bumper quarter that’s been overshadowed by the recent market volatility.
Asian equity markets are rallying this morning after Wall Street’s rebound on Friday, although concerns surrounding an internal investigation involving Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang are capping gains. The company is down around -3.5% on platforms that provide weekend prices.
The AI trade is trying to recover though this morning with Taiwan’s Taiex (+4.94%) snapping a seven-session losing streak after the market regulator and finance ministry unveiled measures aimed at restoring investor confidence. Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei (+2.63%) and TOPIX (+3.20%) are also trading sharply higher. The rebound follows a turbulent week that saw both Japanese and Taiwanese equities fall into bear-market territory. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.61%) has just turned over after spending most of the session higher. Elsewhere the Shanghai Composite (+0.50%), CSI 300 (+0.31%), and Hang Seng (+0.08%) are edging higher. S&P 500 (+0.44%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.25%) are continuing to recover some of Thursday’s big losses. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield is up +1bps at 4.87% and Brent down around a percent as I type.
Earlier this morning, data showed that China’s producer inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in nearly four-and-a-half years in October, as higher global oil prices drove up manufacturing costs, even as consumer inflation softened amid weak domestic demand. Producer prices (PPI) rose 5.7% year-on-year, exceeding both September’s 5.0% increase and expectations for a 5.3% gain. In contrast, consumer prices (CPI) increased 0.7% from a year earlier, slowing from 0.9% in September and coming in slightly below the consensus forecast of 0.8%. The divergent inflation trends highlight the challenges facing Beijing as it seeks to revive household consumption while maintaining momentum in the industrial sector. Although policymakers have introduced a range of measures to support spending and tackle excessive competition, a sustained recovery in consumer demand and prices remains elusive.
Going through the week ahead in more detail, in the US, tomorrow’s October CPI is the centrepiece. Our economists expect headline CPI to rise by 0.20% month-on-month, down from 0.65% previously, with core CPI also up 0.20% after 0.33% last time. Because October 2025 index levels were not produced during last year’s government shutdown, year-on-year inflation rates cannot be calculated for this release. Within core goods, our economists expect softer medical-care commodity prices to offset some strength in recreation and information-technology goods. In services, they expect owners’ equivalent rent to moderate from September, although recreation services could be firmer following streaming-price increases, while the annual health-insurance reset may provide a downward contribution.
Friday’s October PPI will be important for the read-across to core PCE inflation. Our economists expect producer prices to rise by 0.20% month-on-month, compared with 0.32% in September, leaving the year-on-year rate broadly steady at 3.1%. The inflation releases arrive alongside a heavy run of Fed commentary, with around two-thirds of officials due to speak during the week. You’ll see them listed alongside the other major events in our day-by-day calendar at the end as usual. Attention will be on how policymakers assess the recent tightening in financial conditions against still-solid economic and labour-market momentum and inflation that remains above target. Our economists continue to expect 25bp rate increases at the December and March FOMC meetings, absent a further material tightening in financial conditions. US bond markets are closed on Wednesday for Veterans’ Day.
In Europe, Thursday’s UK GDP report is the main event. Our economists expect September GDP to contract by -0.1% month-on-month but expect Q3 growth overall to reach 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. Norway and Denmark also publish October CPI tomorrow.
Japan’s calendar includes the October Economy Watchers survey and September household spending tomorrow, alongside the BoJ’s summary of opinions from its October policy meeting. October PPI follows on Thursday. Elsewhere in the region, New Zealand holds a general election tomorrow.
On the corporate side, the US earnings season is winding down, with close to 90% of S&P 500 companies having already reported. KKR reports today, followed by SoftBank tomorrow; Thursday brings Cisco, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz and Cerebras, among others. CoreWeave tomorrow and Cerebras on Thursday should also offer another read on AI-related demand and investment.
Our asset allocation team have reviewed the global earnings season here and highlighted how growth has remained remarkably strong in Q3 despite a very high hurdle after 38% year-on-year growth in Q2 and persistent upgrades ahead of the reporting season. Global earnings growth likely eased to 33%, still one of the highest rates on record, with Tech, Energy and Materials leading but growth excluding those sectors also a robust 12%, towards the top of its historical range, while record margins provided further support. US earnings growth likely held at 34%, with the median company growing 14% and growth excluding Tech, Energy and Materials at 13%, one of the strongest rates since the GFC. But Europe was arguably the standout, with growth accelerating from 22% to a four-year high of 28%, leaving the gap with the US at its narrowest in 3½ years, while Europe is now matching or exceeding US growth in 6 of 11 sectors. Japan (33%) and EM (39%) slowed sharply but remained very strong, and forward estimates continue to be upgraded, particularly in Korea and Taiwan. So although consensus sees some moderation in 2027, the striking feature of this earnings season has been how broad-based the strength remains even against an exceptionally demanding starting point.
1b European opening report
Trump said it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran; NVDA -4.5% following CEO Huang’s affair, leading to a probe – US Market Open
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 06:30 AM
- US President Trump said it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran if negotiations progress, while Secretary of State Rubio said talks have been unproductive.
- European bourses broadly gain; NVDA shares slip 4.5% after the company launches an investigation into CEO Huang following an affair with an alleged Chinese spy.
- DXY is softer and holds around 101.85; NZD outperforms after the region’s national election result.
- Fixed relatively contained awaiting updates on the AI, geopolitical and policy fronts.
- Crude benchmarks dip as US President Trump played down renewed Iran strikes, and as negotiations continue.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed SCE (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4), Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (Nov), BoJ SOO (Oct). Speakers include Fed’s Goolsbee, Barkin and BoE Governor Bailey. Supply from the US. Earnings from Take-Two Interactive.
SNAPSHOT
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed SCE (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4), Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (Nov), BoJ SOO (Oct). Speakers include Fed’s Goolsbee, Barkin and BoE Governor Bailey. Supply from the US. Earnings from Take-Two Interactive.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
US-IRAN
US-IRAN
- US President Trump told CNN that it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress is made in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He added that further military action would depend on whether Iran agrees to a sufficiently strong deal, while reiterating that the US remains prepared to strike if necessary.
- US President Trump said the US has won the wars in Iran and Venezuela and that the US did not strike Pickaxe Mountain in Iran because no activity was detected there.
- US President Trump posted that “Task Force Iron Gate is in full force and effect in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Coupled with history’s greatest Naval Blockade, very little gets into, or out of, Iran!”
- US President Trump said “Israel and, in fact, the entire Middle East, WOULD NOT EXIST TODAY if I did not stop Iran from having a Nuclear Weapon. Nobody wants to say that, but everybody knows it’s true!”
- US President Trump said the US is talking to Iran and that it is doing well with Iran.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said talks with Iran have been unproductive as Tehran’s demands are unacceptable, although the US will continue exploring diplomatic options where possible. He noted a diplomatic solution may not be achievable and warned the US will respond if its forces in the region are threatened. He reiterated that both US political parties agree Iran acquiring nuclear weapons would be unacceptable and pose a serious threat to US security.
- US President Trump is to meet with the Qatari PM on Monday at 12:00EST/17:00GMT, with talks focused on efforts to reach a new ceasefire and resume nuclear negotiations with Iran, Axios reported. Axios added that US VP Vance is to meet with the Qatari PM separately before the meeting with US President Trump.
More updates can be found in the geopolitical section below.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) started the session flat/modestly lower, but have gradually moved higher throughout the morning. As such, major indices are broadly in the green, posting gains between 0.2-1.9%.
- Upside which follows on from a relatively decent session in Asia, which saw the Nikkei 225 close higher by c. 2.3%. However, the tech-heavy KOSPI (-0.8%) fell overnight, with overarching fears surrounding the AI/memory space remaining front of mind. SK Hynix (U/C) and Samsung (+0.5%) both traded tentatively overnight.
- Further adding to the negative sentiment, Nvidia CEO Huang admitted to having an affair with an alleged Chinese spy. The Nvidia board has launched an independent investigation on the matter, with some investors worried about a potential ousting of the CEO. As such, Nvidia shares are falling in pre-market trade, currently lower by around 4.5%.
- Back in Europe, sectors are mixed. Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, benefiting from the stronger-than-expected Chinese PPI metrics and as recent PBoC data showed continued gold buying for a 24th consecutive month. Elsewhere, Banks hold towards the top of the pile. Banco BPM (+10%) gains after Credit Agricole (-0.8%) pitches a merger of its Italian business with Banco BPM. Sticking in Italy, UniCredit (+5%) gains after Q3 profit rose more than expected, and after raising guidance. To complete the top three is Healthcare, with Argenx (+4.3%) higher after it said its Phase 3 ALKIVIA trial of VYVGART Hytrulo met primary and key secondary endpoints. On the downside, Consumer Products underperforms; Telecoms and Food Beverage & Tobacco complete the bottom three.
FX
- DXY is slightly softer within a narrow 101.81-102.28 range, consolidating after Friday’s upside on the strong US jobs report; market pricing sees a 79% chance of a Fed hike in December. The index currently holds within Friday’s 101.49-102.36 range, above its 50DMA (101.12). The US docket is relatively busy this afternoon, with Fed’s Goolsbee and Barkin, the NY Fed SCE and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow, alongside a 3-year note auction.
- EUR/USD is firmer at the top end of a 1.1134-1.1196 range. Outgoing ECB President Lagarde told Japanese press that inflation numbers will remain high in the quarters to come, while reiterating that the ECB does not see signs of second-round effects beyond what is incorporated in its projections. A light EZ docket, with German Trade Balance doing little to shift the currency this morning.
- GBP/USD is firmer at the top of a 1.3340-1.3420 range, having bounced from 1.3340, and now sits above its 21 and 50DMAs (1.3348 and 1.3357), testing its 100DMA at 1.3392. EUR/GBP trades within a 0.8337-0.8349 range. Focus this week is on Thursday’s UK GDP, while BoE Governor Bailey speaks later today at 17:25GMT.
- USD/JPY is softer within a 157.87-158.53 range, holding beneath its 200DMA at 158.66. Japan’s MoF confirmed three yen-buying interventions over the summer totalling JPY 15.4tln.
- Antipodeans are firmer, supported by the upbeat risk tone in Asia and strength in precious metals. NZD/USD outperforms peers and trades within a 0.5554-0.5603 range, above Friday’s 0.5599 high, helped by the weekend’s elections, where PM Luxon’s National Party-led coalition is narrowly ahead with 67 of 130 parliamentary seats after 97% of votes counted. AUD/USD is firmer within a 0.6854-0.6905 range, though beneath its 21DMA at 0.6983.
- USD/CNH trades flat within a 6.6660-6.6744 range, with little reaction to China’s October inflation metrics, in which CPI was softer at 0.7% Y/Y (exp. 0.8%), while PPI accelerated to 5.7% (exp. 5.3%).
FIXED INCOME
- A modestly bullish start to the session, amid energy downside and some early equity pressure in Nvidia indications hitting the broader tech space, with NQ -0.9% at most. However, this has since moderated to a mixed/bearish performance, with fixed faltering somewhat as energy comes off lows and the NQ returns to unchanged.
- USTs in relatively modest 106-30 to 107-07+ confines, but now essentially flat within that. The day ahead for the US features supply and a handful of data points, but it will primarily be focused on tech and geopolitics. See equities and commodities respectively for more.
- For Bunds the narrative has been much the same, lower by about 15 ticks as things stand, holding around the 123.00 handle in 122.91 to 123.29 confines. Focus for the bloc is on a meeting of EU officials regarding the next ECB President; though, an announcement is not expected until the Council gathering at the end of the month. de Cos and Knot remain the two main contenders, the latter speaking to the FT overnight.
- Gilts in-fitting, marginally outperforming on account of the pressure seen in energy and potentially in anticipation of the Milburn NEET review being published next week, a review that may signal some welfare changes during the Burnham premiership. Firmer by a few ticks, but off best and failed to breach 87.00 earlier in the session.
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks are lower and extending to fresh session lows, with Brent now beneath Friday’s trough. The initial weakness at the open was driven by US President Trump’s comments that further military action against Iran is highly unlikely if negotiations progress, while Secretary of State Rubio’s downbeat remarks and reports of continued strikes in the Strait of Hormuz briefly limited the downside, before a fresh bout of weakness into the European open without a clear headline catalyst (see below for a recap of geopolitics). Focus later today is on Trump’s meeting with the Qatari PM at 17:00GMT, centred on a new ceasefire and resuming nuclear negotiations with Iran.
- WTI Dec’26 trades within a USD 89.29-91.42/bbl range (vs Friday’s USD 89.07-92.53/bbl range), while Brent Jan’27 moves within USD 96.11-98.43/bbl (vs Friday’s USD 96.67-100.83/bbl range).
- Dutch TTF is firmer within a EUR 85.65-87.75/MWh range, potentially as Dana Gas confirmed production at Iraq’s Khor Mor gas facility has been suspended after a drone attack, whilst traders keep an eye on weather heading into the winter.
- Spot gold is firmer but has pared gains back beneath USD 4,100/oz, within a USD 4,054.49-4,134.18/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 4,027.04-4,107.00/oz range), with earlier support from data showing the PBoC added 830K ounces of gold to its reserves in October, extending its buying streak to 24 consecutive months. The yellow metal holds above its 21DMA at USD 4,069/oz. Spot silver is firmer within a USD 51.41-53.46/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 51.20-52.37/oz range), also off best levels.
- 3M LME copper is firmer within a USD 13,801.85-13,923.18/t range (vs Friday’s USD 13,637.38-13,832.83/t range), though it has faded to the bottom of the range after benefiting from the constructive risk tone in Asia, whilst Chinese PPI printed hotter than expected.
- In geopolitics, US President Trump told CNN it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress is made in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Secretary of State Rubio said talks with Iran are not productive as Iranian demands are unacceptable. This morning, the IRGC spokesman said the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, and Iran’s Army spokesman said its military doctrine is moving towards aggression. More recently, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran’s two-day proposal is the most reasonable proposal on the table and that Iran will not compromise on its national interests, adding that the US must end its naval blockade and the war for diplomacy to proceed. Elsewhere, an oil refinery in Russia’s Leningrad region was set on fire following a drone attack, according to the regional governor.
- The Japanese government is to reduce the burden of LPG and kerosene use, Kyodo reported.
- Dana Gas confirmed that the Khor Mor facility in Iraq’s Kurdistan region was targeted in a drone attack and the production has been suspended while the damage is being assessed.
- South Korea’s Finance Minister said the USD 10bln remittance for a US nuclear project will only proceed after a full business feasibility review is completed. The project remains at a preliminary stage and will be carefully assessed.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- China is to extend the suspension of export controls targeting US firms for two months, reports suggest.
- The US warned China that it must immediately fulfil the terms of the trade truce struck by US President Trump and Chinese President Xi in Busan in October 2025, according to the FT. US officials said China is fulfilling only two-thirds of its rare earth commitments and has failed to increase supply.
- China’s MoF suspended the 24% additional tariff on US imports for two months, keeping the 10% tariff rate in place, effective November 10. Additionally, China’s transport ministry said it is to continue suspending special port fees on US ships until January 10, 2027.
- China’s MOFCOM firmly opposed the sanctioning of two Chinese companies and urged the US to promptly correct its mistaken practices and said it reserves the right to take necessary measures and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
- Canadian PM Carney said Canada will continue to work with the Americans to get a trade deal that works for Canada.
- US Treasury Department added eight Canadian firms to its sanctions list for conducting business with Iran.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB President Lagarde told Yomiuri Shimbun that headline inflation in October was higher than the ECB expected a few months ago but in line with market expectations and that inflation numbers will remain high in the quarters to come. She reiterated that they currently do not see signs of second-round effects beyond what is incorporated in their projections. She highlighted that it is not appropriate to pre-empt inflation forecasts but noted that the energy futures curve has risen since their September projections. She reiterated data-dependence and a meeting-by-meeting basis. On the use of TPI, if necessary, she said they have multiple tools and a big toolbox.
- ECB Presidential candidate de Cos told Tages-Anzeiger that second-round effects haven’t appeared so far but vigilance is needed regarding inflation risks.
- ECB Presidential candidate Knot said he is open to developing new tools to combat a potential European debt crisis if appointed ECB President, according to the FT.
- The EU and the UK are reportedly in the final stages of an agreement to link their emissions trading systems, with an announcement expected at a summit later this month, according to Bloomberg sources. The deal would allow cross-border trading of carbon permits, boost market liquidity and reduce carbon border taxes for companies, with negotiators having agreed on emissions caps, supply controls and free permits.
- UK Government’s Milburn NEET review is to be published next week, Politico reported citing sources.
- US Secretary of State Rubio to meet with French President Macron at 17:45GMT/12:45EST.
- Morningstar DBRS confirms Germany at AAA; trend stable.
- S&P revises Poland’s outlook to negative; affirms ‘A-/A-2’ foreign currency ratings; lowers local currency ratings to ‘A-/A-2’.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- German Trade Balance (Sep) 15.6B vs. Exp. 19.2B (Prev. 19.5B); German Exports (Sep MM) 2.0% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.8%); German Imports (Sep MM) 4.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.9%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- ECB Presidential Contender Knot said he is open to developing new tools to combat a potential European debt crisis if appointed ECB President, according to the FT.
- RBA’s Hunter said AI has yet to deliver a material productivity boost or trigger significant job losses, with limited evidence of large effects on aggregate employment in advanced economies. AI-related demand could put upward pressure on inflation in the near term given current supply constraints, although its longer-term inflation impact is likely broadly neutral as supply catches up. AI may be increasing financial stability risks, with disappointing investment returns potentially triggering sharp and disorderly asset price repricing.
- PBoC injected CNY 182bln via overnight reverse repos for a CNY 44bln net drain with the rate at 1.25%.
- PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7188 vs exp. 6.6799 (prev. 6.7168).
- Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (w/e Nov 6) 452.9bln (prev. 460.3bln); Domestic Sight Deposits 429.2bln (prev. 436.9bln).
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he expects to meet with Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin.
- US President Trump urged all senators to vote for The American Affordability and Jobs Act, saying this bill is a big win for US energy independence and dominance.
- Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said inflation remains too high and stubborn, requiring further monetary policy tightening, although the timing and extent of additional hikes will depend on incoming data. She backed September’s rate hike and the subsequent hold, noting policy is only slightly restrictive to neutral and not yet sufficiently restrictive. She said a strong labour market gives the Fed room to tackle inflation, while wage growth remains subdued and real wages are falling. She noted AI-related market repricing has been orderly and could modestly weigh on growth, but she is not concerned about a substantial economic slowdown.
- NVIDIA’s (NVDA) Board initiated an independent investigation following reports that CEO Jensen Huang has been targeted by a foreign intelligence operation. To add, in a memo to staff, the CEO apologised for his affair and said he is fully cooperating with the investigation.
- Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly winding down its Oracle (ORCL) deal to rent AI cloud capacity, according to Bloomberg.
- Anthropic is reportedly proceeding with plans for an IPO before US Thanksgiving, targeting proceeds of USD 80-100bln at a valuation of USD 1.25-1.75tln, below the USD 2tln sought by its most bullish investors, according to the FT citing investors.
- Anthropic reportedly agreed to purchase commitments for 1.7GW of gas-fired generators from OnePWR Solutions for USD 3.4bln in September to support data centre power requirements, according to the FT.
- OpenAI reportedly secured c. USD 11bln in initial funding as part of a financing round valuing the company at USD 1.25tln, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
- US House Democratic Leader Jeffries said War Secretary Hegseth has abused his power and undermined national security over the Iran war, which he claims has driven up prices and made the US less safe. He added House Democrats will discuss a potential resolution on Tuesday.
- US President Trump said he has not spoken to Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Huang about the recent allegations.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Oil refinery in Russia’s Leningrad region set on fire following a drone attack, according to the regional governor.
- Russian Defense Ministry said a vessel carrying cargo for the Ukrainian armed forces was damaged in the Black Sea and a power substation near Cherkasy was damaged, IFX reported.
- A Russian official said drones hit an industrial area in Kirishi in Russia’s Leningrad region.
- US President Trump tells CBS’ 60 Minutes that he expects a different shape of Ukraine when the war ends. Political Changes. He will be making a few changes to the cabinet.
US-IRAN (Continued):
Key geopolitical updates have been listed at the top of the sheet.
- US CENTCOM said its commander directed the establishment of a task force on November 7 to support US government efforts to prevent Iran from transporting advanced weapons and other materials via ground routes.
- US CENTCOM said its forces disabled a St. Kitts-flagged commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman on November 7 after the civilian crew ignored repeated warnings and made multiple attempts to breach the US naval blockade against Iran.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said the outcome of the US elections requires time to assess before determining next steps, with intermediaries having had no contact in recent days due to the result. He added that conditions will need time to improve before mediation efforts resume, according to IRNA. In other comments, Araghchi said US voters have made their choice and that it is up to the White House to decide, while adding that Iran’s “48-hour proposal” remains on the table.
- Initial reports indicated that two missiles struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, with no official information on potential damage, according to Tasnim News Agency. However, Iranian media suggested that the explosions were related to Iranian military activities, rather than US strikes. Separately, IRNA reported explosions in Iran’s Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas, with some sources attributing the sounds to warning shots at violating ships in Hormuz. Furthermore, launches targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly heard from Sirik.
- Iran’s Navy said a tanker transiting a closed zone east of the Strait of Hormuz struck a mine and caught fire after switching off its navigation system, and added that the Strait will remain closed to non-compliant vessels until all threats are removed.
- An Iraqi delegation reportedly visited Tehran and met Iranian officials to deliver a message from the US, according to Al Hadath citing sources.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran’s two-day proposal is the most reasonable proposal on the table; said Iran will not be compromising on its national interests.
- Iran’s Army Spokesman Akraminia said “Iran’s military doctrine is moving towards aggression upon the order of the Commander-in-Chief”.
- China’s Middle East envoy meets Iran’s Deputy National Security Council Secretary during a visit to Tehran, Al Hadath reported.
- An Israeli official said an additional attack on Iran will reduce its capabilities, Al Arabiya reported.
- Clashes reported between government forces and the Yemeni Houthis in Taiz, Al Araby reported.
- Recent Russian contacts with Iran came at the request of the US, which asked Moscow to mediate and persuade Tehran to hold direct talks with the US, reported Al Araby Al Jadeed.
- Iran’s military doctrine is moving towards aggression, under the orders of the Commander-in-Chief, reported SNN.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said they can negotiate and resolve issues with dignity.
- IRGC Spokesman Mohebbi said the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, Defa press reported.
- IRGC Navy official said no vessels transited through the unauthorised route due to the destruction of navigational aid systems in Southern Hormuz, IRIB reported.
- IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi said the Strait of Hormuz is fully under Iranian Naval control and warns that non-compliant vessels risk hitting mines until Tehran’s conditions are met, Press TV reported.
- IRGC said it intercepted and destroyed a 16th US MQ-1 drone over Qeshm Island.
- A Hormozgan provincial official said US forces struck targets on Qeshm Island, although the attacks caused no damage to residential or commercial areas or vital infrastructure, according to IRNA.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the IAEA visited Bushehr in recent days.
OTHERS
- Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades are involved in the oil pipeline attacks in Jurf al-Sakhr, Sky News Arabia reported citing sources.
- A Saudi Aramco administrative building in Riyadh reportedly sustained limited damage from falling shrapnel amid a fresh wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, with no casualties reported, according to the Saudi Energy Ministry and Saudi Press Agency.
- The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles fired by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis towards Riyadh on Sunday, following reports of loud explosions in the Saudi capital.
- Houthi-run Yemeni Transport Ministry said international shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all commercial vessels except ships belonging to “the Saudi enemy”.
- Israel’s political leadership has not directed the IDF to attack Iran, according to Kan News citing sources. Such a directive could come, and is considered one of the possible alternatives; some even believe it to be the most likely.
- US aid to Israel reportedly remains under discussion despite President Trump’s announcement that assistance would end by year-end, according to i24NEWS citing a source. Israel is seeking to negotiate a gradual phase-out of aid, with discreet talks underway to reach a mutually acceptable arrangement.
- Israeli President Herzog authorised Gadi Eisenkot to form a new government following the October 27 election.
- US President Trump reportedly told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a phone call on Thursday that he wants Israel to take steps to implement his Gaza peace plan, according to Axios citing two sources.
- Israel’s Defence Minister Katz said Iran is attempting to revive efforts to acquire nuclear weapons and is undertaking other activities that pose a serious threat to Israel’s security, adding that Israel cannot accept such threats.
- Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region was reportedly struck by a drone attack, with smoke observed near the facility, according to sources. Following this, reports highlighted that production has been halted at the field. This was later confirmed by Dana Gas.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a touch lower this morning, holding around the USD 74k mark. Ethereum underperforms, but holds on to USD 2.1k.
APAC TRADE
- Asia-Pac stocks started the week on a broadly positive footing, as tech names followed the price action seen in their US peers on Friday. Despite the bounce, analysts see this as short-lived, as flows suggested that investors used Friday’s bounce to cut risk on both sides. Leading gains across Asia was Taiwan, after the FSC announced short-selling restrictions while the Finance Ministry said it is prepared to deploy its TWD 500bln stock market stabilisation fund.
- ASX 200 was the slight laggard, spending the majority of the session in the red before managing to eke out mild gains. Another big bank reported earnings, with ANZ’s FY cash profit slightly beating estimates; however, shares are lower.
- Nikkei 225 followed Taiwan’s TAIEX higher, printed gains of over 3% and regained the 59k handle.
- KOSPI was initially lower by as much as 1%, but managed to scale back most of that downside.
- Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng opened higher, in line with the broader market sentiment. Inflation metrics were mixed for October, with headline CPI Y/Y printing at 0.7% (exp. 0.8%) while the PPI metric accelerated to 5.7% (exp. 5.3%).
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese banks have reportedly sharply increased USD deposit rates in recent weeks, with some rates exceeding 4%, while exporters are hoarding dollar cash, according to sources.
- China’s CPCA reported October passenger vehicle sales of 1.65mln units, down 27.3% Y/Y. Tesla (TSLA) exports 59,012 units. BYD (1211 HK) exports 165.2k units.
- The Japanese government reportedly begins discussions on a subsidy programme to partially cover cybersecurity costs for regional banks, with a budget expected to total several billion yen, Kyodo reported.
- Market stabilisation measures are evolving into a long-term component of the country’s financial governance framework, moving beyond temporary responses to short-term market volatility, according to China Securities Times.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese CPI (Oct MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.2%).
- Chinese CPI (Oct YY) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%); Core 0.8% vs Exp. 0.9%. Food inflation -2.9% Y/Y. Non-food inflation 1.5% Y/Y.
- Chinese PPI (Oct YY) 5.7% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 5.0%).
- Japanese Coincident Index Prel (Sep) 119.5 (Prev. 118.8); Japanese Leading Economic Index Prel (Sep) 116.4 vs. Exp. 116.7 (Prev. 118.0);
- Japanese Foreign Exchange Reserves (Oct) 1179.1B (Prev. 1178.4B).
- Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves (Oct) 3.405T (Prev. 3.400T).
- Australian Private House Approvals Final (Sep MM) -5.3% vs. Exp. -5.3% (Prev. 5.4%); Australian Building Permits Final (Sep YY) -0.8% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. 12.1%); Australian Building Permits Final (Sep MM) 5.1% vs. Exp. 5.1% (Prev. -5.2%).
1c Asian opening report
APAC stocks start the week firmer as tech rebounds; Trump plays down Iran strikes while Rubio calls talks unproductive – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 01:45 AM
- US President Trump said it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran if negotiations progress, while Secretary of State Rubio said talks have been unproductive.
- APAC stocks were mostly higher, tracking Friday’s tech rebound on Wall Street; NQ futures pared early losses after NVIDIA’s Board launched a probe into reports CEO Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence operation.
- DXY consolidated after Friday’s jobs-driven upside; Antipodeans outperformed, with the NZD aided by the weekend’s election result.
- Crude lacked direction amid mixed US rhetoric on Iran, while spot gold was firmer after the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 24 months.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Sep), US NY Fed SCE (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4), Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (Nov), BoJ SOO (Oct). Speakers include Fed’s Goolsbee, Barkin and BoE Governor Bailey. Supply from the US. Earnings from Take-Two Interactive.
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SNAPSHOT
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump told CNN that it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress is made in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He added that further military action would depend on whether Iran agrees to a sufficiently strong deal, while reiterating that the US remains prepared to strike if necessary.
- US President Trump said the US has won the wars in Iran and Venezuela and that the US did not strike Pickaxe Mountain in Iran because no activity was detected there.
- US President Trump posted that “Task Force Iron Gate is in full force and effect in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Coupled with history’s greatest Naval Blockade, very little gets into, or out of, Iran!”
- US President Trump said “Israel and, in fact, the entire Middle East, WOULD NOT EXIST TODAY if I did not stop Iran from having a Nuclear Weapon. Nobody wants to say that, but everybody knows it’s true!”
- US President Trump said the US is talking to Iran and that it is doing well with Iran.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said talks with Iran have been unproductive as Tehran’s demands are unacceptable, although the US will continue exploring diplomatic options where possible. He noted a diplomatic solution may not be achievable and warned the US will respond if its forces in the region are threatened. He reiterated that both US political parties agree Iran acquiring nuclear weapons would be unacceptable and pose a serious threat to US security.
- US President Trump is to meet with the Qatari PM on Monday at 12:00EST/17:00GMT, with talks focused on efforts to reach a new ceasefire and resume nuclear negotiations with Iran, Axios reported. Axios added that US VP Vance is to meet with the Qatari PM separately before the meeting with US President Trump.
- Qatar’s PM said mediation efforts between the US and Iran are continuing in an attempt to prevent a further escalation of regional tensions, according to Al Jazeera.
- US CENTCOM said its commander directed the establishment of a task force on November 7 to support US government efforts to prevent Iran from transporting advanced weapons and other materials via ground routes.
- Recent Russian contacts with Iran were reportedly initiated at Washington’s request, with the US asking Moscow to mediate and persuade Tehran to engage in direct talks, according to Al Araby Al Jadeed.
- An Iraqi delegation reportedly visited Tehran and met Iranian officials to deliver a message from the US, according to Al Hadath citing sources.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said the outcome of the US elections requires time to assess before determining next steps, with intermediaries having had no contact in recent days due to the result. He added that conditions will need time to improve before mediation efforts resume, according to IRNA. In other comments, Araghchi said US voters have made their choice and that it is up to the White House to decide, while adding that Iran’s “48-hour proposal” remains on the table.
- IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi said the Strait of Hormuz is fully under Iranian Naval control and warned that non-compliant vessels risk hitting mines until Tehran’s conditions are met, Press TV reported.
- An IRGC Navy official said no vessels transited through the unauthorised route due to the destruction of navigational aid systems in Southern Hormuz, IRIB reported.
- US CENTCOM said its forces disabled a St. Kitts-flagged commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman on November 7 after the civilian crew ignored repeated warnings and made multiple attempts to breach the US naval blockade against Iran.
- Initial reports indicated that two missiles struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, with no official information on potential damage, according to Tasnim News Agency. However, Iranian media suggested that the explosions were related to Iranian military activities, rather than US strikes. Separately, IRNA reported explosions in Iran’s Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas, with some sources attributing the sounds to warning shots at violating ships in Hormuz. Furthermore, launches targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly heard from Sirik.
- A Hormozgan provincial official said US forces struck targets on Qeshm Island, although the attacks caused no damage to residential or commercial areas or vital infrastructure, according to IRNA.
- Iran’s Navy said a tanker transiting a closed zone east of the Strait of Hormuz struck a mine and caught fire after switching off its navigation system, and added that the Strait will remain closed to non-compliant vessels until all threats are removed.
- Iraq’s Foreign Minister Hussein said Iraq had reached an agreement with the US to allow Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz via a channel near Oman, adding that losses from the Iran conflict and export disruptions have reached USD 60bln, according to Al Jazeera. To add, the Foreign Minister said the US asked Iraq to close most land borders with Iran as part of US Treasury measures to pressure Iran’s economy.
- A Saudi Aramco administrative building in Riyadh reportedly sustained limited damage from falling shrapnel amid a fresh wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, with no casualties reported, according to the Saudi Energy Ministry and Saudi Press Agency.
- The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles fired by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis towards Riyadh on Sunday, following reports of loud explosions in the Saudi capital.
- Houthi-run Yemeni Transport Ministry said international shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is safe for all commercial vessels except ships belonging to “the Saudi enemy”.
- Israel’s political leadership has not directed the IDF to attack Iran, according to Kan News citing sources. Such a directive could come, and is considered one of the possible alternatives; some even believe it to be the most likely.
- US aid to Israel reportedly remains under discussion despite President Trump’s announcement that assistance would end by year-end, according to i24NEWS citing a source. Israel is seeking to negotiate a gradual phase-out of aid, with discreet talks underway to reach a mutually acceptable arrangement.
- Israeli President Herzog authorised Gadi Eisenkot to form a new government following the October 27 election.
- US President Trump reportedly told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a phone call on Thursday that he wants Israel to take steps to implement his Gaza peace plan, according to Axios citing two sources.
- Israel’s Defence Minister Katz said Iran is attempting to revive efforts to acquire nuclear weapons and is undertaking other activities that pose a serious threat to Israel’s security, adding that Israel cannot accept such threats.
- Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region was reportedly struck by a drone attack, with smoke observed near the facility, according to sources. Following this, reports highlighted that production has been halted at the field. This was later confirmed by Dana Gas.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks ended mixed. Tech stocks rallied on Friday, led by a turnaround in AI-related names following Thursday’s sharp sell-off, although the sector still has some way to go to recover recent losses. The rebound was accompanied by a stellar US jobs report, which saw the US economy add 165k jobs in October, well above the 65k forecast, while the prior two months were revised higher by a net 84k. The unemployment rate also declined to 4.14% from 4.2%, despite an uptick in participation, while wage growth exceeded expectations.
- SPX +0.33% at 7,378, NDX +1.35% at 26,990, DJI -0.46% at 51,286, RUT +0.85% at 2,753.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- The US warned China that it must immediately fulfil the terms of the trade truce struck by US President Trump and Chinese President Xi in Busan in October 2025, according to the FT. US officials said China is fulfilling only two-thirds of its rare earth commitments and has failed to increase supply.
- China’s MoF suspended the 24% additional tariff on US imports for two months, keeping the 10% tariff rate in place, effective November 10. Additionally, China’s transport ministry said it is to continue suspending special port fees on US ships until January 10, 2027.
- China’s MOFCOM firmly opposed the sanctioning of two Chinese companies and urged the US to promptly correct its mistaken practices and said it reserves the right to take necessary measures and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
- Canadian PM Carney said Canada will continue to work with the Americans to get a trade deal that works for Canada.
- US Treasury Department added eight Canadian firms to its sanctions list for conducting business with Iran.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he expects to meet with Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin.
- US President Trump urged all senators to vote for The American Affordability and Jobs Act, saying this bill is a big win for US energy independence and dominance.
- Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said inflation remains too high and stubborn, requiring further monetary policy tightening, although the timing and extent of additional hikes will depend on incoming data. She backed September’s rate hike and the subsequent hold, noting policy is only slightly restrictive to neutral and not yet sufficiently restrictive. She said a strong labour market gives the Fed room to tackle inflation, while wage growth remains subdued and real wages are falling. She noted AI-related market repricing has been orderly and could modestly weigh on growth, but she is not concerned about a substantial economic slowdown.
- NVIDIA’s (NVDA) Board initiated an independent investigation following reports that CEO Jensen Huang has been targeted by a foreign intelligence operation. To add, in a memo to staff, the CEO apologised for his affair and said he is fully cooperating with the investigation.
- Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly winding down its Oracle (ORCL) deal to rent AI cloud capacity, according to Bloomberg.
- Anthropic is reportedly proceeding with plans for an IPO before US Thanksgiving, targeting proceeds of USD 80-100bln at a valuation of USD 1.25-1.75tln, below the USD 2tln sought by its most bullish investors, according to the FT citing investors.
- Anthropic reportedly agreed to purchase commitments for 1.7GW of gas-fired generators from OnePWR Solutions for USD 3.4bln in September to support data centre power requirements, according to the FT.
- OpenAI reportedly secured c. USD 11bln in initial funding as part of a financing round valuing the company at USD 1.25tln, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
- US House Democratic Leader Jeffries said War Secretary Hegseth has abused his power and undermined national security over the Iran war, which he claims has driven up prices and made the US less safe. He added House Democrats will discuss a potential resolution on Tuesday.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- Asia-Pac stocks started the week on a broadly positive footing, as tech names followed the price action seen in their US peers on Friday. Despite the bounce, analysts see this as short-lived, as flows suggested that investors used Friday’s bounce to cut risk on both sides. Leading gains across Asia was Taiwan, after the FSC announced short-selling restrictions while the Finance Ministry said it is prepared to deploy its TWD 500bln stock market stabilisation fund.
- ASX 200 was the slight laggard, spending the majority of the session in the red before managing to eke out mild gains. Another big bank reported earnings, with ANZ’s FY cash profit slightly beating estimates; however, shares are lower.
- Nikkei 225 followed Taiwan’s TAIEX higher, printed gains of over 3% and regained the 59k handle.
- KOSPI was initially lower by as much as 1%, but managed to reverse higher but was choppy into the close.
- Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng opened higher, in line with the broader market sentiment. Inflation metrics were mixed for October, with headline CPI Y/Y printing at 0.7% (exp. 0.8%) while the PPI metric accelerated to 5.7% (exp. 5.3%).
- US equity futures opened mixed, with the NQ initially lower by as much as 1%, but reversed amid the broader constructive risk tone. The main catalyst was the statement from NVIDIA, with the Board initiating an independent investigation following reports that CEO Jensen Huang has been targeted by a foreign intelligence operation. Shares of NVIDIA are lower by over 4% in overnight trade.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after cash closed -1.1% on Friday.
FX
- DXY was slightly softer, and traded in a narrow 102.13-102.28 range, as it consolidated following Friday’s upside move given the strong US jobs report. The headline figure beat estimates (165K vs Exp. 65K), while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%. Market pricing sees a 79% chance of a hike in December.
- EUR and GBP were modestly firmer, with the former back above 1.1140 while the latter bounced from 1.3350. A light docket in Europe and the UK, as the UK waits for growth figures on Thursday.
- JPY followed its peers, with USD/JPY contained in a 158.15-158.53 range. The latest MoF intervention data was released, confirming three yen-buying interventions totalling JPY 15.4tln.
- Antipodeans were the outperformers, supported by the broader risk tone and strength in the precious metals space. Furthermore, the NZD was being helped by the weekend’s elections. PM Luxon’s National Party-led coalition is narrowly ahead with 67 of 130 parliamentary seats after 97% of votes had been counted.
FIXED INCOME
- UST 10yr Futures are lower by a couple of ticks and returned below the 107-04 price point seen before the strong jobs report. To recap, the headline figure beat estimates (165K vs Exp. 65K), while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%. Market pricing sees a 79% chance of a hike in December.
- Bund 10yr Futures followed their US counterpart lower and briefly slipped below the 123.00 handle. ECB President Lagarde gave comments to Japanese press, in which she said inflation would remain elevated in the coming quarters.
- JGB 10yr Futures continued to fall from the 128.39 peak seen in Friday’s session but failed to hold below Friday’s trough of 127.59, as they held in a 127.51-127.82 range.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures lacked clear direction, with the weakness at the open being briefly erased before a fresh bout of weakness as European trade neared. The initial weakness at the open was driven by positive rhetoric by US President Trump, telling CNN that it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress is made in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, downbeat comments by US Secretary of State Rubio and reports of continued strikes in the Strait of Hormuz limited the downside in energy benchmarks. Rubio said talks with Iran are not productive as the Iranian demands are simply unacceptable and said that sometimes a diplomatic solution is not possible. To add, US CENTCOM announced Task Force Iron Gate, as it continues to target Iran’s economy. WTI and Brent held in their respective USD 89.80-91.42/bbl and USD 96.57-98.43/bbl ranges.
- Precious metals trended higher, with spot gold residing at the upper end of its USD 4,054-4,134/oz range, despite higher yields. One underlying factor supporting the yellow metal is China, with data showing that the PBoC added 830k ounces of gold to its reserves in October, extending its buying streak to 24 consecutive months.
- 3M LME Copper benefited from the constructive risk tone across markets, as the red metal resided at the top end of its USD 13.8k-13.91k/t range.
- Baker Hughes Rig Count: Oil +1 at 463, Natgas +1 at 131, Total +1 at 604.
- At least four oil companies are reportedly seeking US government licences to purchase or lease sanctioned oil tankers in an effort to ease vessel shortages and lower oil prices, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
- The China Enterprise Reform and Development Society said China is expected to invest USD 940bln in energy in 2026, CCTV reported.
- The PBoC added 830k ounces of gold to its reserves in October, extending its buying streak to 24 consecutive months.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin aggressively fell late in Sunday’s session from USD 75.50k to a trough of USD 73.48k in 15 minutes but consolidated in a narrow USD 74.39k-75.5k range throughout Asia-Pac trade.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- RBA’s Hunter said AI has yet to deliver a material productivity boost or trigger significant job losses, with limited evidence of large effects on aggregate employment in advanced economies.
- TSMC (2330 TT) denied reports that it plans to enter the memory semiconductor market, saying it will remain focused on its existing foundry business.
- Chinese banks have reportedly sharply increased USD deposit rates in recent weeks, with some rates exceeding 4%, while exporters are hoarding dollar cash, according to sources.
- Market stabilisation measures are evolving into a long-term component of China’s financial governance framework, moving beyond temporary responses to short-term market volatility, according to China Securities Times.
- China’s NDRC flagged weak domestic demand as a key economic challenge, with Director Zheng Shanjie pledging measures to boost private investment, advance major projects, strengthen economic monitoring and develop further policy proposals for next year.
- China’s CPCA reported October passenger vehicle sales of 1.65mln units, down 27.3% Y/Y.
- The Japanese government reportedly began discussions on a subsidy programme to partially cover cybersecurity costs for regional banks, with a budget expected to total several billion yen, Kyodo reported.
- New Zealand PM Luxon’s National Party-led coalition is narrowly ahead with 67 of 130 parliamentary seats after 97% of votes had been counted, enough for a majority, although the result could change following the counting of special ballots and the opposition has yet to concede.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese CPI (Oct YY) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%); Core 0.8% vs Exp. 0.9%.
- Chinese CPI (Oct MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.2%).
- Chinese PPI (Oct YY) 5.7% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 5.0%).
- Japanese Leading Economic Index Prel (Sep) 116.4 vs. Exp. 116.7 (Prev. 118.0).
- Japanese Coincident Index Prel (Sep) 119.5 (Prev. 118.8).
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump told CBS’ 60 Minutes that he expects a different shape of Ukraine when the war ends.
- Russia’s delegation to talks in the UAE beginning Tuesday will reportedly be led by presidential aide Medinsky and include Deputy Foreign Ministers Ryabkov and Galuzin, military intelligence chief Kostyukov and senior General Staff officer Zhigarlovsky, according to Interfax citing Kremlin spokesman Peskov.
- France’s Foreign Minister said European countries will send a strong delegation to the Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi.
- Russian Defence Ministry said its forces conducted drone strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and vessels supporting Ukrainian forces, hitting a dry-cargo ship carrying military equipment off Odesa, a container ship transporting dual-use goods at Chornomorsk port and the 330kV Kamyanska substation in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine’s operations targeting the Russian oil refining sector are ongoing in response to attacks on its energy facilities, Al Jazeera reported.
- Ukraine reportedly targeted Russia’s Saratov oil refinery (140k BPD) in the Volga region, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
- Naftogaz said a facility in central Ukraine has been struck three times, damaging equipment and sparking a large-scale fire.
- IAEA said power has been restored to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB President Lagarde told Yomiuri Shimbun that headline inflation in October was higher than the ECB expected a few months ago but in line with market expectations and that inflation numbers will remain high in the quarters to come. She reiterated that they currently do not see signs of second-round effects beyond what is incorporated in their projections. She highlighted that it is not appropriate to pre-empt inflation forecasts but noted that the energy futures curve has risen since their September projections. She reiterated data-dependence and a meeting-by-meeting basis. On the use of TPI, if necessary, she said they have multiple tools and a big toolbox.
- ECB Presidential candidate de Cos told Tages-Anzeiger that second-round effects haven’t appeared so far but vigilance is needed regarding inflation risks.
- ECB Presidential candidate Knot said he is open to developing new tools to combat a potential European debt crisis if appointed ECB President, according to the FT.
- The EU and the UK are reportedly in the final stages of an agreement to link their emissions trading systems, with an announcement expected at a summit later this month, according to Bloomberg sources. The deal would allow cross-border trading of carbon permits, boost market liquidity and reduce carbon border taxes for companies, with negotiators having agreed on emissions caps, supply controls and free permits.
- The UK government is reportedly expected to cut its 2030 EV sales target by 25%, The Guardian reported.
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed Germany at AAA; trend stable.
- S&P revised Poland’s outlook to negative; affirmed “A-/A-2” foreign currency ratings; lowered local currency ratings to “A-/A-2”.
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
JAPAN//
CHINA
CHINA/TAIWAN
China Rehearses Taiwan Blockade In Unannounced Naval War Drill
Sunday, Nov 08, 2026 – 10:00 PM
China may be conducting a major, unannounced war drill aimed at isolating Taiwan, with more than 100 naval and coast guard vessels deployed across the Western Pacific, according to a new assessment.
Published Friday by Institute for the Study of War researcher Jackson Karas, the report identified two main clusters of Chinese ships: naval task forces operating between Taiwan and Guam, potentially positioned to deter outside military assistance, and naval and coast guard vessels forming a closer ring around Taiwan.
That positioning, according to Karas, suggests Beijing is conducting a rehearsal for cutting the island off from external support during a conflict:
The scale of these deployments suggests that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is conducting a major exercise that simulates isolating Taiwan.
The number of vessels involved and the geographic range of their deployment are greater than the PLA’s most recent exercise around Taiwan — Justice Mission 2025. The coordination of surface forces from the Eastern, Northern, and Southern Theater Commands is rare.
Karas cited satellite imagery that showed China’s most powerful aircraft carrier, Fujian, departing its base on Hainan last Tuesday, possibly heading toward southern Taiwan.
The analyst continued:
The PRC’s decision to not announce a major exercise departs from recent precedent and may aim to create the impression that the PLA can isolate Taiwan at will. The PRC normally announces and names major military exercises targeted against Taiwan and has done so for the last four such exercises.
The PRC has yet to announce a major military exercise at the time of writing despite the scale of the movements observed in the West Pacific. The PRC may seek to represent the presence of its forces surrounding Taiwan and in the West Pacific as routine, rather than exceptional. The PRC may also aim to demonstrate an ability to rapidly transition from a peacetime posture to combat operations, decreasing the time adversaries have to detect PLA preparations for a blockade or invasion of Taiwan.
ISW-CDOT has assessed that the PRC aims to erode Taiwanese confidence in its own defense and in US willingness to come to its aid. The PLA’s recent movements around Taiwan and throughout the West Pacific likely serve the dual purpose of preparing for a real isolation campaign while aiming to create informational effects that erode Taiwan’s confidence in its own defense and the ability of its allies and partners to support it.
When Democrats take control of Congress in early January, Taiwan is likely to become a renewed flashpoint in US-China relations. The big question is how Beijing will use Trump’s remaining two years in office and whether it sees an opportunity to intensify pressure on the island or whether it’ll finally make its move. The latest military deployments suggest that risk is becoming harder to ignore.
end
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
Something Big Is Coming…
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,
The British state is openly preparing the public for multi-day blackouts while lining up the BBC to broadcast pre-scripted government messages once the lights, water, and internet fail.
A so called “Black Sky” contingency now sits on the books: roughly 100 BBC staff would man a hardened radio studio stocked with its own fuel, food, and water for at least three days, pumping out official instructions over FM if the grid collapses.
This arrives weeks after the government launched an official “Be Ready” campaign ordering every household to stockpile three days of bottled water (three liters per person per day for drinking alone), non-perishable food, cash, a torch, and a wind-up or battery FM radio.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the public that unexpected events “seem to becoming more common” and that people should keep “those supplies in the house to get you through those moments.”
Defence Secretary Wes Streeting has gone further, stating that “we do live in a more dangerous and turbulent world” and warning that adversaries could be ready to attack by 2030, giving Britain “a little over 1,000 days to complete our mission: to be ready with our allies to fight and win.”
The BBC’s own reporting on the Black Sky plan confirms the studio would operate on secure, non-internet communications and broadcast “pre-arranged government messaging.”
Those scripts already exist online and cover basics such as how much people should drink each day and how to dispose of toilet waste without flushing.
Transmission towers isolated from the internet hold diesel tanks of between 5,000 and 40,000 liters to keep generators running for three days.
One BBC insider noted that planners originally looked at five to seven days of capacity before the National Energy System Operator indicated power might return in two to three days.
Cabinet Office officials insist “there has never been a complete outage in the grid’s 75-year history,” yet the machinery for a nationwide communications fallback is being detailed in public.
Lord Harris, chair of the National Preparedness Commission, has spelled out the cascading failures: a power cut is “likely to stop the water supply because unless you happen to be located neatly downstream of a reservoir, that requires electricity.”
Sewage systems, he added, can solidify without flowing water, causing blockages and backups. These are the practical consequences the government now wants households to absorb themselves rather than rely on rapid state restoration.
The timing tracks with earlier signals. In July the government announced mass stockpile guidance and the largest home-defence wargames in decades (Operation Albiston Shadow in 2027), while updating the old War Book for the first time in years.
What Is This REALLY About? UK Government Announces Mass STOCKPILE Order, WARGAMES
Experts say the real fear is civil conflict born of a fractured society
They’re Telling Us A Major WAR Is Coming…
Families told to stockpile; BBC asks if the public is “psychologically ready”
modernityArmy chief General Sir Roly Walker has already told troops that the public will be asked to make sacrifices and that political leaders will soon discuss the risks of war with citizens.
pattern is consistent: condition the population for disruption, then keep the official narrative channel open when normal media infrastructure fails.
Spain and Portugal’s April 2025 blackout supplies a recent European reference point. Millions lost power for days, traffic lights failed, trains stopped, and mobile networks collapsed across both countries and into southern France. Authorities did not rule out a cyberattack.
Massive Blackout Cripples Spain And Portugal, Possible Cyberattack Not Ruled Out
Spain and Portugal were paralyzed on Monday by the worst blackout in recent history
That event is now cited in UK discussions of grid vulnerability.
At the same time, climate-driven blackout proposals continue to surface in left-governed cities. In New York, a Manhattan assemblywoman advanced legislation for mandatory nightly blackouts from 11 p.m. to 5 a.m. under a “Dark Skies Protection Act,” framed around energy conservation, bird migration, and reduced light pollution.
This Is What You Get When Commies Are Running NYC…
A criminal’s dream come true
Critics noted the security implications in a high-crime environment and the WEF-adjacent logic of rationing energy while basic order frays.
The preferred messenger for any Black Sky emergency is the same State funded organization the government has already sought to amplify on social media platforms. Officials have pushed plans to force YouTube and other giants to boost BBC content in feeds and recommendations, ostensibly to combat “disinformation.”
XX
UK Government Plans To Force Social Media Giants To Boost BBC Content To ‘Fight Disinformation’
Starmer’s FINAL power grab
Parallel proposals would compel platforms to prioritize state-backed output.
The BBC has been extensively documented pushing regime narratives including extreme open-borders material to schoolchildren via Bitesize resources used by 1.7 million pupils weekly: games that scored points for open borders and amnesty while docking points for deportation or training locals first, alongside Net Zero advocacy. Sections were pulled after exposure, but the institutional tilt is documented.
BBC Caught Pushing EXTREME Open Borders Propaganda To Kids
Games that scored pupils for amnesty and open borders finally pulled
When the internet and mobile networks fail, the fallback is an FM radio studio staffed by the same broadcaster that has treated mass migration, Net Zero, and institutional loyalty as settled consensus.
Pre-written government scripts would reach the public through that channel alone. Households are being told to prepare for 72 hours of disruption while the state ensures its preferred voice remains on air.
The gap between “alert not alarmed” messaging and the concrete hardware, stockpile orders, wargames, and war-readiness timelines is now narrow. People will draw their own conclusions about what the preparations are actually for.
END
GERMANY
5.RUSSIA AND ISRAEL AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFIARS
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA /FRIDAY NIGHT
Trump Initiates ‘Minor Strikes’ On Iran In First Ordered Action Since Election
Saturday, Nov 07, 2026 – 10:00 AM
The White House has confirmed more ‘limited’ strikes against Iranian targets along or off the country’s southern coast, which appear to have occurred in the late night hours (local).
Presdent Trump told media Friday evening he ordered a “minor” military action that targeted Iranian air defense systems and military infrastructure on Qeshm Island – which had already been subject of similar action in the past weeks.
“They built a little bit of an anti-aircraft device and we knocked it out in about 15 minutes, maybe five,” Trump said.
Despite the fresh strikes, Trump till claimed that the US has made “a lot of progress with Iran” – and that this action was only a “minor strike” and that “we are not fighting”.
“We’re dealing with them now. They want to make a deal,” Trump told the press. Conflicting reports have emerged this week suggesting Tehran is open to discussing the nuclear file (despite its public statements to the contrary); but it’s also clear that Iran is still insisting it won’t back down from its seven conditions.
The Friday night assault comes after Iran has touted that several tankers transiting the Hormuz Strait ‘without permission’ were hit by sea mines this week, resulting in damage and fires.
Crucially, this also marks Washington’s first time targeting Iran since the Democratic Party swept the midterm elections. The Iran war very obviously factored in…
Speculation remains over ‘what’s next?’ in this ongoing quagmire which in the end sunk the Republican party before it sunk the Islamic Republic.
The hawkish pundit class is also been sunk, and is scrambling to sing a different tune…
US Central Command has just announced the creation of Task Force Iron Gate, which is aimed at blocking any alternative or overland trade routes being used by Iran.
The group will monitor any significant imports or exports entering or exiting Iranian borders, including via the Caspian Sea. This is expected to target military technology, dual use items, or any overland energy trade.
END
IRAN//IRAQUSA/ISRAEL MONDAY
GAS
Drone Strike Shuts Down Northern Iraq’s Largest Gas Field, Plunging Region Into Darkness
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 08:50 AM
A drone attack on the sprawling Khor Mor gasfield in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq has resulted in a large fire, suspending production at the site, while plunging much of semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan into darkness.
Huge amounts of smoke and flames have been seen rising from the vicinity of the gasfield in the Sulaimaniyah governorate. Regional reports Sunday night indicated over 70% of the region’s power generation has been knocked offline.
Khor More is the region’s largest natural gas field, which is a major source of fuel for local power stations. The whole region essentially runs off of one gas field.
Omid Ahmed, spokesperson for the Kurdistan Regional Government’s Ministry of Electricity, was cited in Al Jazeera as saying the attack “suspended gas supply to power plants in the cities of Erbil, Sulaimaniyah, Bazian, Chamchamal and Duhok.”
The explosive-laden drone had an uknown origin. No group or nation-state has claimed responsibility as yet.
US Presidential Envoy to Iraq and Syria Tom Barrack has described the strike as an attack on the Iraqi people and expressed support to uncover and hunt down the attackers
“We condemn the attack on Khor Mor, which was an attack on the Iraqi people. We support Prime Minister Zaidi and the Kurdistan Regional Government in finding those responsible and holding them to account,” Barrack wrote on X.
According to some of the emerging investigative details:
Kurdistan24 correspondent Harem Jaff reported that the attack struck the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit in the facility’s “Old Field” section, causing substantial material damage. An emergency alarm sounded before the impact, allowing workers to take shelter. No casualties were reported among employees or security personnel.
Several Iraqi security sources have suggested that the drone approached from the direction of Khurmatu, southwest of the field. A military intelligence officer, field guards and personnel at a Khurmatu checkpoint described hearing an aircraft in that direction.
While it is anything but clear that it was Iran, the IRGC has in the recent past been known to launch attacks on Kurdish opposition groups with headquarters in northern Iraq.
It could be connected with the ongoing Iran and Yemen conflcits, but there’s also the possibility of Iran-affiliated Iraq paramilitary units, or else possibly remnant ISIS cells. The United States has recently wound down its ‘counter-ISIL’ mission and has pulled remaining troops from Iraq this year.
The whole region remains on edge, awaiting either a possible US-Iran peace deal, or else a return to major fighting which would put Gulf region oil and gas fields in Iran’s retaliatory crosshairs.
IRAN /USA
Pentagon’s ‘Iron Gate’ Operation: Washington Moves To Choke Off Iran’s Overland Military Trade
Sunday, Nov 08, 2026 – 05:00 PM
Despite the Iran war being very obviously deeply unpopular with the American public, Washington is seeking to tighten the noose on Tehran, particularly on the economic front.
This weekend saw the Pentagon unveil details of a new initiative called “Task Force Iron Gate” – which will seek to target Iranian alternative trade routes amid the US naval mission to blockade its main ports via the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf waters.
The effort seeks to strangle Iran’s overland military and technology supply networks, including by better monitoring the Caspian Sea region.
“The establishment of Task Force Iron Gate reinforces the success of our ironclad blockade against Iran at sea,” said CENTCOM chief Adm. Bradley Cooper.
“Strengthening CENTCOM’s collaboration with U.S. interagency partners will further constrain Iran’s ability to finance terrorism, rebuild weapons factories, and replenish their military,” the top commander added.
Michael Mulroy, a former US deputy assistant defense secretary for the Middle East, has further described that the operation will seek to comprehensively “cut the regime off from its ability to fight and ability to fund itself.”
An appointed task force will focus its sole efforts on finding out where “weapons systems are coming in, how they could potentially be cut off” and how “Iran is transporting its energy”.
CENTCOM said it will be be run by 20 civilian and military personnel, presumably with significant coordination from the National Security Agency (NSA) and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA).
The task force will be based in Tampa, Florida – which is home to both CENTCOM headquarters and US Special Operations Command (SOCOM).
But disrupting overland trade will be easier said than done, given Iran shares borders with no less than seven countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan Turkey, and Turkmenistan.
A Revolutionary Guards spokesman was quoted as saying on Sunday that Washington’s aims are impossible.
“The Iron Gate plan is merely a wordplay, the Americans cannot achieve their objectives of imposing severe economic pressure to cause economic collapse in Iran through this approach,” spokesman Hossein Mohebbi told the semi-official Fars news agency.
Geographiclly, Iran dwarfs neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan, and is more than double the size of Ukaine. Iran is also the size of almost half the European continent. Also Iran’s population is more than double (over 90 million people) that of neighboring Iraq’s.
And so the prospect of significantly disrupting all overland military or industrial-related trade is a tall order, or even one might call it a fantasy.
ISRAEL TBN
end
SAUDI ARABIA/HOUTHIS: EAST WEST PIPELINE
Saudi East-West Pipeline Again Hit By Drone, But Stays Operational
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 11:52 AM
Update(1252ET): Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has been struck by in a drone attack once again. Saudi Energy Ministry authorities confirmed the attack Monday in the Madinah region, likley as a result of a Houthi attack out of Yemen. However, the pipeline’s operations were not taken offline. According to Saudi media sources:
An official source at the Ministry of Energy stated that the East-West Pipeline in the Madinah region was targeted on Monday, November 9, resulting in a minor fire. Emergency response teams successfully brought the fire under control without any injuries or fatalities, while the pipeline’s operations remained unaffected.
The source explained that emergency response teams, along with specialized technical teams, immediately launched operations following the attack and took all necessary measures to secure the site and ensure its safety in accordance with approved safety procedures and emergency response plans.
The official statement said: “Emergency teams extinguished the fires resulting from the strike without any injuries, death, or disruption to operations…”
* * *
A drone attack on the sprawling Khor Mor gasfield in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq has resulted in a large fire, suspending production at the site, while plunging much of semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan into darkness.
Huge amounts of smoke and flames have been seen rising from the vicinity of the gasfield in the Sulaimaniyah governorate. Regional reports Sunday night indicated over 70% of the region’s power generation has been knocked offline.
Khor More is the region’s largest natural gas field, which is a major source of fuel for local power stations. The whole region essentially runs off of one gas field.
Omid Ahmed, spokesperson for the Kurdistan Regional Government’s Ministry of Electricity, was cited in Al Jazeera as saying the attack “suspended gas supply to power plants in the cities of Erbil, Sulaimaniyah, Bazian, Chamchamal and Duhok.”
The explosive-laden drone had an uknown origin. No group or nation-state has claimed responsibility as yet.
US Presidential Envoy to Iraq and Syria Tom Barrack has described the strike as an attack on the Iraqi people and expressed support to uncover and hunt down the attackers
“We condemn the attack on Khor Mor, which was an attack on the Iraqi people. We support Prime Minister Zaidi and the Kurdistan Regional Government in finding those responsible and holding them to account,” Barrack wrote on X.
According to some of the emerging investigative details:
Kurdistan24 correspondent Harem Jaff reported that the attack struck the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit in the facility’s “Old Field” section, causing substantial material damage. An emergency alarm sounded before the impact, allowing workers to take shelter. No casualties were reported among employees or security personnel.
Several Iraqi security sources have suggested that the drone approached from the direction of Khurmatu, southwest of the field. A military intelligence officer, field guards and personnel at a Khurmatu checkpoint described hearing an aircraft in that direction.
While it is anything but clear that it was Iran, the IRGC has in the recent past been known to launch attacks on Kurdish opposition groups with headquarters in northern Iraq.
It could be connected with the ongoing Iran and Yemen conflcits, but there’s also the possibility of Iran-affiliated Iraq paramilitary units, or else possibly remnant ISIS cells. The United States has recently wound down its ‘counter-ISIL’ mission and has pulled remaining troops from Iraq this year.
The whole region remains on edge, awaiting either a possible US-Iran peace deal, or else a return to major fighting which would put Gulf region oil and gas fields in Iran’s retaliatory crosshairs.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
RUSSIA/IRAN/ISRAEL USA
‘A Working Group For War And Peace’: Three Hours In The Kremlin
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Larry C. Johnson via Sonar21
Vladimir Putin does not give three hours of his time to people who have nothing to say. On Thursday, he gave three hours to Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Two days later, Israel’s president handed the job of forming the next government to Gadi Eisenkot instead of Benjamin Netanyahu.
Washington spent the week arguing about the midterms. Moscow, Tehran and Jerusalem spent it rearranging the board.
What the Kremlin said, and what it didn’t
The Kremlin’s account of the meeting was a masterpiece of saying nothing. Putin received Rezaei on November 5. The two discussed “the current state of bilateral relations” under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, and “the situation in the Gulf region and the Middle East as a whole.” A message from Iran’s Supreme Leader was delivered. Its contents were not disclosed. That was it.
The Kremlin is never chatty, but the brevity is itself a message. When Moscow wants the world to know it has promised something, it says so. When it wants room to bargain with Washington, it publishes three sentences.
The photograph said more than the text. Sitting on the Russian side of the table were Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s senior foreign policy adviser, and Igor Kostyukov, the head of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence service. You do not bring your top diplomat and your top military intelligence officer to a courtesy call. That is a working group for war and peace.
The Iranian side has been far more talkative. According to Kazem Jalali, Iran’s ambassador in Moscow, the meeting ran about three hours. Rezaei’s message from Mojtaba Khamenei covered the American and Israeli attacks on Iran, Tehran’s seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear cooperation. Jalali also described an agreement on gas. In the short term, Russian gas would be swapped through Azerbaijan. Over two to three years, a pipeline would be built with 110 billion cubic meters a year of capacity, starting at 55 billion.
Putin made no public promise of military help, and the 2025 treaty contains no mutual defense clause. But he did not need to say anything. Iran sent its top security official to walk Putin through its terms for ending the war, in person. Moscow brought its spy chief to hear them. That is how you prepare for a negotiation, not a photo op.
Bibi gets the pink slip, sort of
On Saturday, President Isaac Herzog asked Gadi Eisenkot to form Israel’s next government. It was not close. Sixty-seven members of the Knesset recommended Eisenkot, including the Arab-led parties. Only 46 recommended Netanyahu.
Now comes the hard part. Eisenkot’s bloc won 48 seats on October 27, and he has ruled out governing in coalition with the Arab-led parties that just helped him. That leaves him two roads. He can bring in the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, to reach exactly 61. Or he can run a minority government that the Arab parties support from outside. He has 28 days, plus a possible 14-day extension. If he fails, Israel heads for another election, and Netanyahu stays on as caretaker.
Netanyahu, true to form, is not going quietly. He warned that a government “dependent on Islamists” would “dismantle the state of Israel from within.” He has also demanded an investigation into supposed foreign interference in the election. It is the political equivalent of declaring the referee biased after losing 67 to 46.
What changes if Bibi goes
Eisenkot is no dove. He is a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, and he lost a son and a nephew in the Gaza war. He still supports economic pressure on Iran and limited military action. But his approach differs from Netanyahu’s in three ways that matter.
- Iran. Netanyahu has spent this year campaigning for regime change in Tehran and lobbying Washington for more strikes. Eisenkot campaigned on “more diplomacy alongside any military steps” and told the Wall Street Journal he would back military action only against “direct and immediate threats to Israel.” Years ago, he called the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal a “strategic mistake.”
- Washington. Netanyahu tied Israel’s fortunes to the Republican Party and to Trump personally. Eisenkot calls the relationship “a partnership between peoples, built over generations” and promises to rebuild its bipartisan base. He also says he wants to work “closely and constructively” with the Trump administration. That is a man who wants Israel back on good terms with both parties, not one who wants to drag a lame-duck Congress into another war.
- Leverage. For eight months, the loudest voice urging Trump to “finish the job” in Iran has come from the Israeli prime minister’s office. Take that voice away, and the war party in Washington loses its most important foreign ally just as Republicans absorb a midterm verdict on the war.
Now put Moscow and Jerusalem side by side. Iran is laying out its terms to Putin, with Russia’s military intelligence chief in the room. Qatar and Pakistan are mediating to keep Washington and Tehran from going back to open war. And Israel is about to swap a prime minister who wanted the war widened for one who talks about diplomacy and alliance repair. For the first time since February, the people pushing for a settlement have more momentum than the people pushing for more bombs.
There is one dangerous window. Until Eisenkot forms a government, Netanyahu remains prime minister, and he has every incentive to create facts before he leaves. A caretaker with nothing to lose and a fondness for surprise strikes is not a comforting combination. If there is a moment of maximum risk in the next six weeks, it is now.
The odd man out
So here is the week in review. Iran sends its security chief to Moscow for three hours. Putin brings his spy chief and says almost nothing in public, which is how you keep your options open. Israel’s president hands Netanyahu’s job to a general who prefers diplomacy alongside force. American voters fire the Republican Congress over the war.
Everyone seems to have read the room except the man in the Oval Office. Donald Trump can treat these as separate stories, or he can see what the rest of the world already sees. The coalition for war is shrinking, the coalition for a deal is growing, and the window for a face-saving exit will not stay open forever. Three hours in the Kremlin and a 67-to-46 vote in Jerusalem are not the end of the war. But they may be the beginning of the end of the reasons to keep fighting it.
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
UK/CANCER RATES:
ROBERT H…
NIGHTMARE VAIDS BOMBSHELL: 
England Now Records More Than 1,000 New Cancer Diagnoses Every Single Day, Highest Level In History (
& 20-Sigma U.S. Cancer Excess Mortality For Ages 0-54)
Very scary …
GLOBAL ISSUES//
COVID VACCINE INJURY REPORTS; DR MARK CRISPIN MILLER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Qatar (Shockingly) Becomes Largest Buyer Of US LNG Amid Hormuz Crisis
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 07:50 AM
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice,
- Qatar is set to become the largest buyer of U.S. LNG, signing long-term deals for 7 million tonnes annually with Cheniere and Woodside.
- The Iran war has crippled Qatar’s LNG industry, destroying 17% of export capacity, causing $20 billion in annual revenue losses and severely restricting shipments through Hormuz.
- QatarEnergy is diversifying away from its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, turning to U.S. LNG supplies to protect its global market position and improve supply reliability.
In an extraordinary turn of events, Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter before the Iran war, will become the biggest buyer of liquefied natural gas from the United States, the producer that overtook the Gulf nation as top LNG exporter earlier this decade.
This extraordinary turn of events is, of course, the result of the extraordinary disruption that the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz inflicted on Qatar, the LNG producer whose expansion plans for the rest of this decade were rivaled only by the U.S.
The war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is still blocking much of Qatar’s LNG exports, have upended these plans. State-energy firm QatarEnergy is now scrambling to repair the damage at its LNG facilities caused by Iranian missile attacks in March. These attacks took out 17% of Qatar’s export capacity and caused an estimated loss of $20 billion in annual revenue, QatarEnergy said in March.
Seven months later, Qatar is barely moving “very few” cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz as the protracted crisis chokes supply to markets of the LNG volumes that Qatar would have produced, even at reduced capacity.
QatarEnergy has been forced to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts. Suddenly, Qatar faces tens of billions of dollars in losses from missed sales. More importantly, the perception that Qatar is a reliable supplier of regular term deliveries has been undermined.
The Qatari state-owned energy giant last week extended the force majeure on LNG deliveries to Asia and Europe by another month through the end of December 2026, as LNG cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked.
Unlike oil, LNG exporters cannot transport volumes via pipelines, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, President and CEO of QatarEnergy and Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs, said in September.
“The problem is that LNG, our main export commodity, cannot be transported by pipelines. We will have to transport it by pipelines as gas and then liquify it at receiving terminals wherever that may be,” Al-Kaabi said at the Qatar Economic Forum Special Edition in New York in September.
“This means we are building redundant facilities to the ones we are already building in Qatar as part of the North Field expansion project. This makes no economic sense,” the minister explained, and added, “We have decided not to use pipelines as an alternative based on commercial and technical criteria.”
Referring to resuming LNG production and exports, “Qatar is ready to resume normal operations within a few weeks of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” the official noted.
As we enter the ninth month of the Hormuz crisis, Qatar is hedging against what could be a forever-changed access through the chokepoint.
“Some shipments are going through the Iranian road to Pakistan, and some are going through the U.S. road to other destinations, but it’s just a few ships that are passing, that were able to pass through the Strait, but it’s not much,” Al-Kaabi said at the Qatar Economic Forum in New York.
With its only route to market blocked, Qatar last month hedged its bets against future disruptions by signing two separate agreements to buy LNG from U.S. producers to diversify its portfolio.
QatarEnergy signed two long-term deals with Cheniere to buy up to 4 million tons per annum of LNG from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi export facilities, with deliveries expected to begin in 2031 and continue through 2054.
The Qatari firm also signed a long-term agreement to buy 3 million tons per annum of LNG from Woodside Energy’s Louisiana LNG project, which is currently under construction. Deliveries on a free-on-board (FOB) basis are set to begin in 2030 for 20 years.
“These additional volumes make QatarEnergy the largest buyer of LNG from the U.S., and place us in a stronger position to meet the global growing needs for LNG,” QatarEnergy’s Al-Kaabi said.
“Our Golden Pass LNG project and our expanding portfolio of U.S. LNG purchases reinforce QatarEnergy’s leadership in the LNG industry and support our long-term growth and diversification strategy.”
With Hormuz out of the picture in the near term and uncertainty about disruptions in the longer term, Qatar is expanding its LNG supply options with deliveries from its biggest rival, the United States.
The deal with Woodside “reflects QatarEnergy’s continued confidence in the long-term role of LNG in the global energy mix and its strategy to further develop a flexible, diversified and globally competitive LNG portfolio,” the Qatari firm said, as the Iran war fundamentally changed the global LNG supply market in both availability and reliability.
END
Brent Selloff Deepens After Worst Week Since COVID; US Gas Prices Poised To Break Below $4
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 09:20 AM
Brent crude futures dipped into the $93-a-barrel handle early Monday morning, extending last week’s selloff, the largest weekly decline since April 2020, while WTI traded near $87.37 a barrel.
Intraday
Weekly
Continued diplomatic signals outweighed a wave of regional violence over the weekend, including a Houthi missile strike on a Saudi Aramco office tower in Riyadh’s financial district, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, US forces disabling a vessel in the critical waterway, and US strikes on Iranian air-defense equipment on Qeshm Island.
President Trump on Sunday finally got the memo after the GOP’s disastrous midterm.
Trump remarked Sunday that it is “highly unlikely” he will need to order US forces to war with Iran as long as there is progress in negotiations. Indirect talks are currently happening via Qatari and Gulf mediation.
“It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement,” Trump told CNN’s Jim Sciutto in a phone interview. Then the president explained:
“The answer is highly unlikely it’s going to be necessary. They’re a failing nation. It just came out, you saw this year, 301% inflation. Highly unlikely it will be necessary. I would if necessary, but we hit them really hard. I hit them so hard. You don’t know how hard I hit them.”
Diplomatic signals mixed after Secretary of State Marco Rubio described some Iranian demands as “outrageous and ridiculous.”
Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said that any US-Iran deal to lift the Hormuz blockade could send Brent down to the $70 to $85 levels. He noted that Brent was still holding a slight war risk premium into the new week after much of it evaporated last week.
Last Thursday, UBS energy expert Dominic Ellis wrote that even with the rapid unwind of the geopolitical risk premium in Brent, there’s still going to be a floor in Brent because of the “near 700 mn drawdown in global inventories as a result of the conflict so far and the at least 40-50mb ongoing monthly inventory draw if the conflict continues will drive incremental demand that keeps a floor on oil for the next 18-24 months.”
US distillate stockpiles fell below 100 million barrels for the first time since 2003.
The good news for US drivers ahead of Thanksgiving is that the national average for gasoline at the pump, tracked by AAA, is about to drop below the politically sensitive $ 4-a-gallon level. 
Traders are monitoring Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries ahead of US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday. This will be a three-way meeting between Washington, Moscow and Kiev.
END
Is The War Premium Gone For Good? Goldman’s Commodity Desk Says Oil Options Haven’t Got The Memo
No—the oil “war premium” has been sharply reduced after the U.S. midterms, but Goldman’s commodity trading desk sees options markets still pricing meaningful upside/geopolitical risk, suggesting it has not disappeared for good.
zerohedge.com
Recent context (as of early November 2026): Brent crude fell sharply—about 10% in one day to near $93 after the Democratic midterm sweep (the steepest one-day drop since April), part of a larger weekly decline from peaks near $118. Hedge funds liquidated roughly $6.6 billion in Brent positions in the week before/around the vote (largely long liquidation). This was widely attributed to a reduced geopolitical risk premium tied to expectations of constraints on escalation in the Middle East (Iran-related conflict/shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere), rather than a sudden physical supply surge.
zerohedge.com
Goldman Sachs research had quantified a large risk/war premium: around $27/bbl at the October peak (explaining most of the rally above an inventory-driven “fair value” roughly in the $90s or low-$90s range). They had raised forecasts accordingly (e.g., Dec 2026 Brent to $105 from $90; 2027 average to $88), while noting base-case moderation as the premium fades and Gulf flows normalize, alongside upside scenarios (e.g., $130 average if significant supply shortfalls persist).
ainvest.com
Key point from Goldman’s commodity/futures desk (via analysts such as Robert Quinn): Spot/futures prices and positioning have de-risked rapidly, but the options market has not fully followed. After the plunge, there were signs of rebound interest: three-month implied volatility rose on a subsequent bounce, the 25-delta put-call skew narrowed, and calls were repurchased. This combination points to some traders positioning for a potential return of the war premium. Related commentary highlights that physical freight/tanker markets and options can lag or diverge in updating risk perceptions.
news.futunn.com
In short, the midterms and related positioning unwound a large portion of the priced-in escalation risk quickly (a “Blue-nami” effect on crude). Fundamentals (inventories, recovering Gulf exports in some assessments, demand effects) support a lower baseline, but residual geopolitical risks (ongoing tensions, shipping vulnerabilities) mean the premium can reappear rapidly. Options activity indicates the market has not fully written it off. Prices remain sensitive to headlines on diplomacy, attacks, or supply flows.
END
NATURAL GAS…
NatGas Shorts “Forced To Cover” As US Cold Blast Threatens Record Hedge Fund Bear Bets
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 02:20 PM
US natural gas futures jumped Monday morning as forecasts shifted sharply colder across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, colliding with the record hedge fund short position we flagged Sunday.
Incoming Cold Blast
“A midweek cold front is expected to bring a noticeable cooldown across portions of the central and eastern Corn Belt. By Thursday and Friday, temperatures will trend toward or below seasonal averages across much of the region, while warmer conditions persist farther west,” private weather forecaster BAMWX wrote on X.
Washington, DC
Philadelphia
NYC
Boston
Lower 48
The Squeeze
December futures rose as much as 4.6% to $3.140 per million British thermal units as of 10:45 a.m. local time in New York, reaching the highest intraday level for a front-month contract since Oct. 19.
The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission report shows that hedge funds amassed record short positions last week on expectations of a warmer fall and early winter due to a Super El Niño.
“Even with the limited fundamental support from weather, the shorts are still being forced to cover, so today could be a wild ride,” Tradition Energy analyst Gary Cunningham wrote in a note.
Latest Weather:
- Firewood Stacked? Meteorologist Warns “First Legit” Cold Blast Of Season To Hit Mid-Atlantic & Northeast
- “Uncharted Territory”: Arctic Vortex Could Break Earliest On Record
- Could One Big Cold Snap Torch Hedge Funds’ Record US NatGas Shorts
- Cold Blast Puts Mid-Atlantic, Northeast On Watch For Season’s First Snowstorm
Also, some parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, likely areas at higher elevations, could receive their first accumulating snowfall of the season, according to the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA///USA
Canada First: Democrats Aim The Opening Shot Of Their Tariff Rollback At Trump’s Smoot-Hawley Levies… But Veto Math Says Good Luck
Saturday, Nov 07, 2026 – 09:30 AM
Three days after a blue tsunami swept both chambers, Democrats have picked their first trade fight, and it’s the one they have already won three times.
According to the WSJ, Democrats are eyeing President Trump’s trade war with Canada as the first target in a campaign to roll back the administration’s tariff agenda, according to Senate Finance’s top Democrat (and soon its chairman), Oregon’s Ron Wyden.
“There is overwhelming support for repealing the tariffs on products from Canada,” Wyden told the Journal, adding that he is already talking with colleagues about legislation once he takes the committee gavel in January, and that “Congress must take away the president’s ability to unilaterally and arbitrarily impose tariffs.”
Overwhelming, maybe. Veto-proof? Not even close, and as we show below, the timing is even worse: the next (and biggest) round of Canada tariffs takes effect on January 1, two days before the new Congress is sworn in.
Why Canada? Because That’s Where Republicans Already Cracked
The logic of going after Canada first is simple: it’s the tariff fight where Republicans have most reliably crossed the aisle. Wyden’s camp told the WSJ that the Canada levies are the best opportunity to flip Republicans against Trump and possibly build enough support to avert a veto, or even override one. The plan is to bolt sweeteners onto the repeal to win GOP votes, and to keep forcing floor votes on the least popular parts of the trade agenda in hopes of more defections.
There is precedent. The Senate voted 51-48 to terminate the emergency behind Trump’s original 25% “fentanyl” tariffs on Canada in April 2025 (with Collins, McConnell, Murkowski and Paul voting yes), did it again 50-46 in October 2025, and in February the House followed with a 219-211 vote as six Republicans broke ranks. Every single vote passed. None came anywhere near the two-thirds needed to override a veto.
And Canada is just the opening act: Democrats are also eyeing legislation to rein in the novel legal authorities Trump has used to justify his tariffs, starting with Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which underpins the Canada levies and which no president had ever used before, as well as Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which Trump first invoked earlier this year for temporary global tariffs. As we noted in “Is The Gridlock Trade Dead Under Trump 2.0?” (Aug 3), Wyden already introduced the Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act of 2026 back in July, which would repeal Sections 122 and 338 outright, while Schumer’s September bill would repeal the Canada tariffs and require refunds.
The rest of the Democratic bench is just as eager. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on Wednesday that Democrats would pass a bill to stop Trump’s tariffs and end the Iran war, while Rep. Jamie Raskin went further, saying “we’re going to put an end to these tariffs” and that he hopes to see movement on Canada “within the first 100 days.” Which, considering the first 100 days start January 3, is a long time in Trump tariff years.
Smoot-Hawley’s Little Brother
Regular readers know we have been tracking this particular trade war since November 2024, when then president-elect Trump first floated a 25% tariff on Canada and Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky flagged that the bigger surprise in the proposal was Canada. It only got uglier from there, and the timeline below shows how the US went from an emergency “fentanyl” tariff to a 96-year-old Depression-era statute in under 18 months (with zero congressional votes in support along the way).
After the Supreme Court ruled in February that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, the administration went shopping for new authority and in July landed on Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (better known as Smoot-Hawley), slapping 50% duties on everything from “wine to hockey sticks to cement” (Jul 20), USMCA-compliant goods included. Goldman’s FX team (Stuart Jenkins, Michael Cahill et al.) called the move “a clear escalation in these trade tensions,” reiterating that the US’s trade talks with Canada “will likely prove to be more challenging than those with Mexico.”
Then came a month of whiplash: Trump paused the tariffs at the 11th hour (Aug 19) declaring “we have a DEAL!”, only for the deal to collapse three days later as Carney suspended talks:
Trump’s answer came two days later, when he announced that tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts and steel would rise to 50% on January 1, 2027:
Ottawa retaliated on September 8 with counter-tariffs on roughly C$28BN of US goods, a list that, as Industry Minister Mélanie Joly openly admitted, was designed to target specific US states (Sep 7) and apply political pressure ahead of the midterms. Well, the midterms happened, and Michigan, Maine and Ohio all went blue.
Not that Canada has much to celebrate. As University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe told MPs last month, Ottawa’s retaliation is costing Canadian consumers some $100 million a week while “there’s no evidence that the retaliation we’ve enacted has changed U.S. behavior,” and Rabobank’s Benjamin Picton pointed out that Canada shed 68,300 jobs in September after losing 41,700 in August. Diplomacy at its finest.
Majority, Yes. Veto-Proof, No
Which brings us to the math. As the WSJ notes, any stand-alone bill would likely need 60 votes to clear a Senate filibuster, and a Trump veto (and there will be a veto) takes two-thirds of both chambers to override: 67 senators and 290 House members with full attendance. Per Goldman’s tally, Democrats have flipped seven GOP Senate seats for at least 54, and get to 56 only if Alaska and Mississippi also flip; in the House, the bank sees a majority of around 255 seats.
Now add the Republicans who have voted to repeal the Canada tariffs before. Of the four GOP senators who did so in 2025, Susan Collins just lost her seat in Maine and Mitch McConnell is retiring, which leaves Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski. Even in the best case that’s 58, or nine short of an override. In the House, even if all six Republicans who broke ranks in February return, Democrats would still be roughly 29 votes short of 290. Translation: the Canada repeal will probably pass, and Trump will probably veto it, and it’s not clear Democrats can find the votes to override, as even the WSJ concedes.
That’s also why Goldman’s chief political economist Alec Phillips was underwhelmed even before the votes were counted. In his midterm preview (available to pro subs), Phillips wrote:
Democrats have indicated they would seek to reverse some of President Trump’s tariffs, but we expect this to have a limited effect since the reversals would likely be focused on a few countries (e.g., Canada) or products. We expect President Trump to announce new tariff increases after the election that would more than offset those reductions, likely resulting in a rise in the US effective tariff rate of a little under 2pp.
We flagged that very passage on election night, so the WSJ story is only half the picture: Democrats are about to fight over the tariffs on the way out while the White House is lining up new ones on the way in.
The real Democratic leverage probably lies elsewhere. In the bank’s post-election take, “USA: Democrats Win a House and Senate Majority with Gains Well Above Expectations“, Goldman expects Democrats “to use fiscal deadlines to seek to limit the war with Iran, roll back selected tariffs, and reverse spending cuts enacted last year.” The first deadline is December 11, when spending authority expires, though Goldman sees a short-term extension to February or March as most likely; the bigger one is the debt limit next fall. In other words, the more realistic path to tariff relief probably runs through a shutdown fight.
Markets Already Placed Their Bet
Traders didn’t wait for Wyden. On Wednesday, JPMorgan’s Delta-One thematics desk noted that its Tariff Sensitive basket beat the market by 2.5 sigma, while “Trump Policy themes are experiencing aggressive unraveling amid the red reversal playing out” (available to pro subs), part of the same blue-wave rotation we described in “Texas Turns Blue, Futures Turn Green” and “Crude Crashes As Blue-nami Sparks Market Chaos,” where hopes of a tariff rollback were one of the reasons stocks ripped on Wednesday (before giving it all back and then some on Thursday).
Ottawa, meanwhile, is playing it cool. Carney said talks have intensified since a November 1 call with Trump and that Washington is now “asking less” and “offering more,” having dropped some earlier demands, including limits on Canada’s ability to strike trade deals with other countries. At the same time, his government says the Democratic sweep won’t change its approach, and Canada’s trade surplus just widened to the highest in more than four years in September (Reuters), which tells you Ottawa isn’t exactly in a hurry.
And there is a reason for the newfound flexibility in Washington: a Canada deal struck by Trump before January takes the issue away from Democrats. Those close to Trump told the WSJ they see little sign that the electoral rebuke will slow his trade agenda, and the Journal warns that the Canada dispute threatens to intensify in the coming months, before the new lawmakers are sworn in.
Two Days Before The Cavalry
Which brings us back to the calendar. On January 1, tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, parts and steel are scheduled to jump to 50%; on January 3, the new Democratic Congress takes its seats. Even with a perfect start, Wyden’s bill would then need to clear Finance, the floor, the House and a veto, and as the charts above show, the last step is where every Canada repeal has died so far.
So what happens? Two paths: either Democrats find nine more Republican senators and 29 more House Republicans willing to override a sitting president on trade, or Trump does what he does best, cuts his own Canada deal in December, declares victory and keeps the tariff machine pointed at everyone else. We’d bet heavily on the second, which also happens to be Goldman’s base case: fewer tariffs on a few countries like Canada, more tariffs on everyone else, and an effective tariff rate that ends up higher after the “anti-tariff” blue wave than before it.
Then again, after twenty months, three statutes and zero congressional votes in favor, the one thing everyone in Washington now agrees on is that Congress should have a say on tariffs. Whether it gets one is a different question.
Much more in the full Goldman “US Economics Analyst: Previewing the Midterm Elections” and the “USA: Democrats Win a House and Senate Majority with Gains Well Above Expectations” notes, both available to pro subs.
END
VENEZUELA
Flavio Bolsonaro Reveals Why He Fled To Miami; Then Makes One Big Admission…
Friday, Nov 06, 2026 – 06:20 PM
Flavio Bolsonaro, the Brazilian senator who fled to Miami two days after losing the presidential runoff to Lula, sat down with Glenn Greenwald on Thursday for his first on-camera interview since leaving the country – and spent much of it arguing the election was taken from him.
“I didn’t lose the election to my opponent,” Bolsonaro told Greenwald, saying the vote had been “taken over” by the system.
But when Greenwald pressed him on evidence, Bolsonaro conceded, “I have no proof of fraud.”
“That’s why I’m not going to challenge this in the Brazilian courts, because I don’t have proof and I never will,” he added, arguing that investigating the matter is forbidden in Brazil.
The nearly hour-long interview, released Friday on Greenwald’s Substack and YouTube channel, covered Bolsonaro’s escape, the probes that led Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to order him to surrender his passports, money from disgraced Banco Master banker Daniel Vorcaro, and whether he still considers himself Brazil’s rightful president. Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in two cases, including allegations that a sports betting company was used to launder fraudulent deductions from government pensions. He denies wrongdoing.
“Actually, I didn’t leave Brazil, I left for Brazil,” Bolsonaro said of his departure, adding that he sees no conditions for a return while things in Brazil remain as they are.
His case that the vote was rigged rests largely on arithmetic. Lula, who was reelected by roughly 4.4 million votes, added 10.3 million votes between the first round and the Oct. 25 runoff, Bolsonaro said – more than the roughly 9 million votes cast for every other first-round candidate combined. “There’s no mathematical or statistical explanation, nothing, for Lula having gotten all those extra votes,” he said. “It’s impossible, unless the result was manipulated.”
He also pointed to a ruling by Justice Cristiano Zanin – Lula’s former lawyer – extending voting in Bahia by two hours, which he said was issued at 5:01 p.m., after polls had closed. When Greenwald noted that Bolsonaro’s own campaign had asked for extensions too, Bolsonaro said it only did so because the Workers’ Party had, that a little over 34,000 people voted in that window, and that the two-hour delay in releasing results was so “something could happen.”
Greenwald pushed back: if the left had the power to manipulate the result, why didn’t it do so in the first round, when Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party swept? Bolsonaro, who earlier boasted that his allies won 19 of 27 governorships and will hold 286 of the 513 seats in the lower house, didn’t take up the question, asking instead what could explain Lula’s surge in 21 days.
He also floated the idea that criminal factions such as Comando Vermelho and the PCC, which he said dominate areas home to more than 50 million Brazilians, may have forced residents at gunpoint to vote for Lula. Asked whether that actually happened or was just a possibility, he said: “I want an investigation.”
As we reported, a version of his post-election letter declaring him Brazil’s “true president-elect” circulated last week before being pulled. Bolsonaro told Greenwald that wording came from a first draft he had already vetoed, that it “ended up becoming public” without his doing, and that only the final version – calling him Brazil’s “leader” – went out on his account. Asked whether he still considers himself president-elect, he said “neither I nor Lula can say with 100% certainty that anyone was elected president of Brazil.”
Bolsonaro refused to say who planned or paid for the private flight out. “I’m not going to give details about anything,” he said, claiming anyone around him would be persecuted. He said he left Brazil with his driver’s license and entered the US with his passport, legally, and denied speaking with the US, Argentine or Israeli governments before the trip. He also declined to say whether, as has been reported, an Israeli national tied to the Mossad was in the car with him, while insisting it had nothing to do with the Israeli government. Since arriving, he said, he hasn’t spoken with anyone in the US government and now plans to start regularizing his immigration status – consistent with Marco Rubio’s claim last weekend that the US had no direct role in his departure. (translated)
He described the moment Federal Police notified him he could no longer leave the country – at the gate of the house where his father, Jair Bolsonaro, is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for attempting a coup after his 2022 election loss. His father, eyes welling up, told him he knew where they were going with this, Bolsonaro recalled. “Dad, I know, and don’t worry – I know what I have to do,” he said he replied.
Asked why he didn’t stay and fight the cases, as Lula did before his 2018 imprisonment and as his father did when he returned from Florida in 2023, Bolsonaro called his father’s return a mistake. “I learn from President Bolsonaro’s mistakes and successes, and I’m not going to make the same mistake,” he said. “I’m innocent. It’s the judge who would judge me who isn’t innocent.” (translated)
On Vorcaro, Bolsonaro said the money for “Dark Horse,” the film about his father, went to the production company as a private investment in exchange for a share of the profits, and claimed police had since acknowledged there was no public money in the film and no favor from him as a senator. Greenwald noted that Bolsonaro had initially denied seeking money from Vorcaro; Bolsonaro said the deal was covered by a confidentiality agreement.
He said he would vote to impeach Moraes, citing the R$129 million he said Moraes’ wife received from Banco Master for supposed legal work. “Everyone knows she didn’t practice law,” he said. “The one who practiced law was Alexandre de Moraes himself.” (translated) Asked about Justice Kassio Nunes Marques, a Jair Bolsonaro appointee whose son Greenwald said received millions from Banco Master, he declined to give an opinion, saying only that any justice who broke the law should be impeached.
Bolsonaro said he will keep serving out his Senate term, which ends Jan. 31, 2027, voting remotely as he did this week on Lula’s public-security constitutional amendment, and that he is living on savings for now, with income as a lawyer and from a business that makes graphene helmets. He said he would run for president again in 2030 if his party agrees – and that if his father regains his eligibility, “he’s my candidate.”
Brazil’s judiciary, he said, needs its credibility restored after Moraes threw it “in the trash.” “Today, Brazilian citizens look at the Supreme Federal Court and feel disgust.”
END
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING\
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1194 DOWN 0.0057
USA/ YEN 157.86 DOWN 0.542 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS//
YEN CARRY TRADERS MURDERED
GBP/USA 1.3423 UP 0.0089 OR 89 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4088 DOWN 0.0035 //CDN DOLLAR UP 35 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 11.61 PTS OR 0.32%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 32.91 PTS OR 0.13%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.41%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 32.91 PTS OR 0.13%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.61 PTS OR 0.32%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .41%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1,439.00 OR 2.37%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4106.90
silver:$52.74
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 50.18 UP 17 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 82.31 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 37 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.1224 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.5686 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
FRENCH OAT 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.756 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.6450 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.3540 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early MONDAY MORNING: 101.78 UP 35 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSES
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.656 % DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.6740% UP 4 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.8540 UP 4 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.7940 DOWN 5 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.2850 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.2343 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1196 UP 0.0059 OR 59 basis points
USA/Japan: 158.07 UP 0.328 OR YEN IS DOWN 33 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.1010 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.608 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS.
FRANCE 10 YR: 4.708 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR/VS CANADIAN DOLLAR DOWN 0.0012 BASIS PTS TO 1.4107 CDN DOLLAR UP 12 BASIS PTS
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.6728 ON SHORE ..DOWN
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH DOWN TO 6.6705
TURKISH LIRA: 50.16 UP 14 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.843 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.245 DOWN 2 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.528 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 9;00 AM $4121.00
SILVER AT 9;00: $52.72
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesFRIDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME/ 12:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 108.93 PTS OR 1.02%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 446.83 PTS OR 1.73%
FRANCE: UP 94.30 OR 1.166%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 373,00 PTS OR 1.93 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 1,346.92 TS OR 2.69%
WTI Oil price 87.24
Brent Oil: 93.75 10;00 EST
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 101.75 OR DOWN 43 PTS
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 83.00/ ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 7 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.636 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.351 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1222 UP 0.0085 OR 85 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3438 UP 0.0103 OR 103 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.1396 DOWN 2 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.5823 DOWN 3 IN BASIS PTS.
FRENCH 10 YR BOND: 4.736% DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.665 % DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.835 DOWN 3 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.83 DOWN 0.567 OR YEN UP 57 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4118 UP 0.0009 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 86.21
Brent OIL: 92.43
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.8750%
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 1 PTS to 5.266%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.557 UP 4 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.6571 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.3670 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 101.55 DOWN 62 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 50.18 UP 3 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 82.77 DOWN 0 AND 84 /100 roubles //
GOLD $4143.80 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 53.45 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 1,118.70 POINTS OR 2.18%
NASDAQ 100 UP 917.63 PTS OR 3.40 %
VOLATILITY INDEX 19.91 DOWN 5.73PTS OR 22.35%
GLD: $ 379.53 UP 7.01 PTS OR 1.88%
SLV/ 48.14 PTS UP 1.27 OR 2.71%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 710.05 PTS OR 1.98%
END
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Huang-Over: Stocks Jump, Oil Dumps After Weekend Of ‘Fear And Loathing’
WRAP UP
Stocks rally as rebound continues while crude drops on US/Iran optimism – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 04:36 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up.
- REAR VIEW: A Qatari-Pakistani proposal reportedly revives the path of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran; Reports suggested Qatar will host Vance and Rezaei next week, but Tasnim later denied it; Mixed 3yr US auction; NY Fed SCE inflation expectations unchanged; Fed’s Barkin said there is no base case for the December meeting; Investigation involving NVDA CEO Huang following reports of his admitted affair with an alleged Chinese spy; GOOG rolls out two new versions of TPU systems.
- COMING UP: Data: Australian NAB Business Confidence (Oct), Chinese Trade Balance (Oct), Norwegian Inflation (Oct), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US CPI (Oct) Events: Riksbank Minutes; EIA STEO; BoC Minutes; BCB Minutes Speakers: Fed’s Waller, Schmid, Paulson; BoE’s Lombardelli, Pill; ECB’s Lane, Cipollone Supply: Japan, Netherlands, UK, US Earnings: CoreWeave, Infineon, Porsche SE.
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks closed firmly in the green on Monday as the post-midterm rout continued to unwind. Gains were broad-based, with all major US indices and S&P 500 sectors closing higher, particularly Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Communication Services. The rally came despite a 5% decline in Nvidia (NVDA) shares amid an investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang following reports of his admitted affair with an alleged Chinese spy.
Sentiment was also supported by further optimism surrounding the US/Iran conflict. Over the weekend, Trump said he believes it is highly unlikely that he will resume a major military campaign against Iran, while reports via Al Arabiya on Monday suggested the two sides were moving closer to an agreement. The report noted that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal had revived the prospect of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
In FX, the Dollar underperformed amid the risk-on trade, while the Antipodean currencies led gains, with the Kiwi particularly strong following the weekend’s New Zealand election results. Gold prices also rallied, supported by the weaker Dollar.
The Treasury yield curve flattened, with front-end yields rising while the long end was little changed. The move appeared largely driven by improved risk sentiment, given that yields rose despite the sharp decline in oil prices, although a sizeable 2-year T-note futures block trade may have contributed to the move. The USD 58bln 3-year Treasury auction was mixed and had little market impact, while US data also prompted little reaction, with the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showing inflation expectations unchanged across the one-, three- and five-year horizons.
Attention now turns to Tuesday’s US CPI report, which will be key in shaping Fed rate expectations ahead of the December meeting.
US
BARKIN (2027 voter): Said the main risk lies on the inflation side of the Fed’s mandate, with resilient demand and broad-based cost increases pushing prices higher, while firms are looking to pass these costs on to consumers. He described the US economy as “remarkably stable”, noting that businesses are performing well, earnings have been “remarkable”, and bankers report healthy loan pipelines, with demand extending well beyond AI. On the labour market, Barkin described the latest jobs report as “healthy”, with layoffs remaining muted and firms continuing to operate in a low-hire, low-fire environment. Although consumer sentiment remains “bleak”, spending has continued, supported by labour market resilience. Regarding monetary policy, Barkin said the direction is “straightforward”, although it is best to move “with care”, noting that the current policy rate is likely around or slightly below neutral. However, he has no base case for the December meeting and suggested that having two full months of economic data between meetings would improve communication. On the recent elections, Barkin said their economic impact remains difficult to gauge, although he does not expect newly approved ballot measures to impede data center expansion, as firms will find alternative locations to build.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 1+ TICKS LOWER AT 107-02
Yield curve flattens as yields rise amid continued equity market rebound. At settlement, 2-year +4.1bps at 4.553%, 3-year +2.4bps at 4.606%, 5-year +1.9bps at 4.664%, 7-year +1.3bps at 4.752%, 10-year +0.7bps at 4.866%, 20-year -0.7bps at 5.287%, 30-year -0.2bps at 5.261%.
THE DAY: The Treasury yield curve flattened on Monday, with front-end yields rising while the long end was little changed at settlement.
The move appeared largely driven by risk sentiment, with US equities extending Friday’s rebound and reducing haven demand for Treasuries. Nonetheless, some concerns remained amid pressure in Nvidia (NVDA) shares following reports concerning CEO Jensen Huang and an alleged relationship with a Chinese spy.
Meanwhile, the rise in front-end yields coincided with a sizeable two-year Treasury futures block trade at 09:03 ET, which saw 26k contracts traded at 102-12+. CME does not disclose whether the trade was buyer- or seller-initiated, although Treasury futures came under pressure following the transaction.
There was also a notable shift in Fed pricing, with money markets now pricing 39bps of hikes by March next year, up from 34bps on Friday. The equity rout following the midterms had prompted a dovish repricing of Fed expectations amid concerns over the growth outlook, but the rebound in AI-related stocks has helped revive optimism surrounding AI-driven economic growth, supporting a renewed hawkish shift in Fed pricing.
Yields rose despite a notable decline in oil prices, extending the recent pullback in energy prices. Over the weekend, US President Trump said he believes it is highly unlikely that he will resume a full-scale war or major military strikes against Iran.
Yields came off highs ahead of settlement after Al Arabiya reported that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived the path of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran, weighing on crude prices even further.
US data had little impact. September wholesale inventories were revised higher to 0.7% from 0.6%, while the October Employment Trends Index rose to 108.36 from 107.56. Meanwhile, the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed inflation expectations unchanged across the one-, three- and five-year horizons at 3.9%, 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively.
Fed commentary saw Barkin state that he has no base case for the December meeting, noting that the policy path is straightforward but that it is best to adjust policy carefully.
The USD 58bln 3-year Treasury auction had little market impact, although the results were mixed, leaning soft. The offering tailed by 0.5bps, while the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53x was below the six-auction average of 2.64x, suggesting somewhat lacklustre demand. However, direct participation rose to 35.0%, well above the 25.2% average, helping keep dealer allocation below average at 9.5%.
Attention now turns to Tuesday’s US CPI report, which will be key in shaping Fed rate expectations ahead of the December 9th meeting. This will be the final CPI report before the decision, with November CPI not due until the following day. However, policymakers will still receive October PPI and PCE data, alongside the November jobs report, before the meeting.
Supply
Notes/Bonds
- US to sell USD 42bln of 10-year notes on November 10th and USD 25bln of 30-year bonds on November 12th.
- US sold USD 58bln of 3-year notes; Tail 0.5bps.
Bills
- US sold 3-month bills at high rate of 4.060%, B/C 2.67x; sold 6-month bills at a high rate of 4.145%, B/C 2.92x
- US sold 6-week bills at a high rate of 3.990%, B/C 2.59x
STIRS / OPERATIONS
- Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 21.1bps (prev. 19.2bps), Mar 39.1bps (prev. 33.9bps).
- EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 105bln (prev. USD 111bln) on November 6th
- SOFR at 3.89% (prev. 3.92%), volumes at USD 3.174tln (prev. USD 3.256tln) on November 6th
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.25bln (prev. 0.15bln) across 3 counterparties (prev. 1) on November 9th
- NY Fed T-Bill Purchases (1-4 month): Accepts USD 3.65bln of USD 33.49bln offered; Offer-to-cover 9.17x
CRUDE
WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 3.98 LOWER AT 86.85/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 5.75 LOWER AT 92.57/BBL
The crude complex was lower as the mood between the US and Iran turned more constructive, with a peace proposal appearing closer than before. Oil prices fell on the resumption of trade after US President Trump told CNN over the weekend that it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran, provided progress is made in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, US Secretary of State Rubio said talks with Iran have been unproductive, as Tehran’s demands are unacceptable. Energy saw further weakness on a couple of other bearish reports: 1) Iran reportedly dropped a demand to control the Strait of Hormuz and collect transit fees, and 2) Al Hadath reported that the Iraqi PM presented proposals to end the Iran war during a phone call with Trump. There was some pushback, though, after a Qatari official said reports of the details of a US-Iran proposal are false and that talks are ongoing. In a further positive development, Mehr News said Qatar will host US VP Vance and Iran’s Rezaei next week. Direct involvement from Vance would be a significant step, and it helped ease geopolitical uncertainty. However, in keeping with the mixed reporting, Tasnim said Rezaei’s plan to meet Vance in Doha has been denied. Separately, Trump met the Qatari PM for around 45 minutes, with talks focused on the negotiations with Iran.
Note that WTI settled around lows, but has since tumbled much further after Al Arabiya reported that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived the path to serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Brent settled after the reports – hence the disparity in settlement prices. The report noted that arrangements are underway to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to Iran, without specifying the scope of their mission. Washington has reportedly allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at a level of 3.67%, and Tehran has agreed. The US will release Iranian assets worth between USD 6-9bln if an agreement is reached, and the Strait of Hormuz will be opened and the naval blockade lifted immediately. A preliminary agreement on reducing Iranian uranium enrichment is likely, while discussions are underway regarding the involvement of a third country to facilitate the reduction of highly enriched uranium levels in Iran.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +2.35% at 7,550, NDX +3.40% at 27,908, DJI +2.15% at 52,390, RUT +3.16% at 2,841.
SECTORS: Industrials +3.78%, Consumer Discretionary +3.05%, Technology +2.87%, Materials +2.15%, Communication Services +2.12%, Health +1.94%, Real Estate +1.59%, Utilities +1.54%, Financials +1.42%, Consumer Staples +0.64%, Energy +0.41%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX +1.72% at 26,266, FTSE 100 +1.02% at 10,783, CAC 40 +1.16% at 8,233, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.06% at 6,298, AEX +0.84% at 1,130, IBEX 35 +1.93% at 19,743, FTSE MIB +2.69% at 51,400, SMI +1.01% at 14,946, PSI +0.82% at 9,555.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Nvidia (NVDA): Launches investigation into CEO Huang’s affair w/ ‘Chinese spy’.
- Alphabet (GOOG): Google rolling out 2 new versions of TPU systems to challenge Nvidia
- Constellation Energy (CEG): EPS & rev. topped alongside raising FY profit view
- NRG Energy (NRG): Bottom line surpassed exp.
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): Q3 earnings fall, accelerates buyback
- AMD (AMD): Upgraded at Oppenheimer.
- UnitedHealth (UNH) made an unsolicited bid to buy Surgery Partners (SGRY) at USD 28/shr, according to Bloomberg citing sources, which the Co. rejected over concerns about the complexity of the deal and that it might not close.
- Disney+ (DIS) to stream the Super Bowl live in the US for the first time, according to Business Insider citing sources.
- PepsiCo (PEP) is eliminating roughly 1,000 jobs across its food and beverage division as it attempts to turn the company around, reports WSJ.
FX
The Dollar Index saw notable losses on Monday, weighed on by the more constructive geopolitical backdrop and cooling energy prices amid increased hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. The latest report, which sparked a significant risk-on reaction, came from Al Arabiya, which, citing sources, said a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived the path to serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The report added that arrangements are underway to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to Iran, and that Washington has allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at 3.67%, which Tehran has agreed to. It also said the US will release Iranian assets worth between USD 6-9bln if an agreement is reached, while the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and the naval blockade lifted immediately. Participants now await confirmation of these reports or any further details. Away from geopolitics, there was no tier-1 data on Monday, with US CPI due on Tuesday. The NY Fed SCE showed inflation expectations unchanged across all horizons: 1yr at 3.9%, 3yr at 3.3% and 5yr at 3.0%.
G10 FX gained across the board against the Greenback on the broad Dollar weakness. The Antipodeans outperformed, buoyed by risk sentiment, with the Kiwi also supported by the New Zealand general election. The centre-right bloc is narrowly ahead but may need support from the Opportunity Party, which is likely to sit outside government in exchange for policy concessions. A centre-right victory is widely viewed as pro-business and would allow the RBNZ to keep its existing mandate. Some on the left have called for the Bank to reinstate a dual mandate, focusing equally on inflation and employment, which is regarded as dovish for NZD. Elsewhere, although it did not move the Pound, BoE Governor Bailey said the Bank is seeing growing signs of the beginnings of a positive supply shock from AI and the investment it requires. Finally, USD/CNH saw choppy price action after Chinese CPI came in cooler than expected while PPI was hotter than expected.
USA DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
The Electoral College May Be The Next Victim Of The 2026 Midterms
by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Nov 07, 2026 – 12:20 PM
On Tuesday, Democrats won full control of state government in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, a shift that could let states effectively bypass the Electoral College before the 2028 presidential election without amending the Constitution.
Those states hold a combined 61 electoral votes. If all five enact the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, the agreement would grow from 222 electoral votes to 283, clearing the 270 it needs to take effect. According to a report from Axios, the Democrats’ victories “opened a path to effectively replacing the Electoral College with a national popular vote in time for the 2028 presidential election.”
The compact binds member states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote. That obligation applies even when a member state’s own voters choose a different candidate. Once states controlling 270 electoral votes sign on, the agreement would end the possibility of a candidate winning the White House while losing the national popular vote.
Americans vote for slates of electors, and those electors choose the president. Nearly every state gives its entire slate to the candidate who carries the state. Maine and Nebraska also award electors by congressional district. The compact keeps the electors in place and changes only the standard member states use to select them, with the switch activating only after membership reaches the 270-vote threshold.
Eighteen states and Washington, D.C. have enacted the compact since organizers launched it in 2006. The member states are California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington.
Kamala Harris carried every one of those states, along with the District, in the 2024 presidential election. President Trump won the national popular vote that year. Had the compact been in force in 2024, its members would have awarded their electoral votes to Trump.
Ironically, Harris said this summer that Democrats should revisit the Electoral College, among a list of changes she floated that included expanding the Supreme Court and making D.C. and Puerto Rico states.
The compact’s supporters rely on Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution, which gives each state’s legislature authority to appoint presidential electors “in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct.” Because that power belongs to the states, backers say they can change how electors are chosen through ordinary state legislation rather than through a constitutional amendment requiring support from two-thirds of both chambers of Congress as well as the high bar of ratification by three-quarters of the states.
Supporters argue that the provision gives states broad discretion over their electors, including the authority to award the state’s Electoral College votes to the winner of the national popular vote.
Critics dispute that interpretation, arguing that the Constitution’s framers deliberately rejected the idea of electing presidents through a nationwide popular vote. Patrick Valencia, Iowa’s deputy solicitor general, argued to NPR that the compact attempts to “usurp the constitutionally required electoral procedures” by keeping the Electoral College technically intact while fundamentally changing how electoral votes are assigned. Critics contend that such a sweeping change to the presidential election system should require a constitutional amendment.
A separate constitutional objection is raised under Article I, Section 10 with respect to interstate compacts and agreements. Opponents of the NPVIC insist it requires congressional approval as it is an agreement which binds the states that are a part of it to a common electoral arrangement which in turn will affect the political power of the states not in the compact. Congress has not approved the agreement.
The central legal issue is whether a state can exercise its constitutional power to appoint electors to effectively convert the Electoral College into a national popular vote system. No court has ever squarely faced that question, and therefore the constitutionality of the compact is still very much in doubt. If it does get to 270 electoral votes and goes into effect, it would be certain to trigger a major constitutional dispute.
END
“Mercy For The Wolves”: California DAs Revolt After Newsom Wipes Out Death Row
Saturday, Nov 07, 2026 – 11:55 AM
California’s district attorneys are vowing to keep seeking the death penalty in new cases, and some are looking for a way to block Gov. Gavin Newsom’s commutation of all 548 death sentences in the state before it takes effect. As we reported, Newsom announced Thursday that he would commute every death sentence in California to life without parole, writing in a letter that “state-sanctioned killing is incompatible with California’s values.”
Orange County District Attorney Todd Spitzer went first. Newsom’s commutations are “mercy for the wolves,” he said in a statement Thursday, before making the vow: “I, as the elected District Attorney of Orange County, have, and will, continue to pursue the death penalty.”
Newsom’s own letter leaves them that opening. The commutations do not repeal the death penalty, so prosecutors can still seek it in new cases, as the Mercury News noted. San Mateo County District Attorney Stephen Wagstaffe, whose office is seeking death against the man accused of killing seven farmworkers at a Half Moon Bay mushroom farm in 2023, told the paper he was “disgusted.” “It is contrary to two separate votes of the people of California,” he said. “What he’s done today is specifically undemocratic and serves his own personal philosophy.”
The bigger question is whether the commutations survive at all. The state constitution bars a governor from commuting the sentence of anyone convicted of more than one felony without the California Supreme Court’s approval, which covers 382 of the 548 cases, and the governor’s office says none of the commutations take effect until those legal steps are done. That is where prosecutors are looking. San Diego County District Attorney Summer Stephan said her office is “researching any lawful remedies” for victims’ families, who she said were “deprived of any input.”
Victims’ rights are the likeliest line of attack. San Bernardino County District Attorney Jason Anderson said Newsom ignored Marsy’s Law, the victims’ rights guarantees in the state constitution: “I am not aware of any victims’ family members receiving notice of these commutations from the Governor.” He singled out Kevin Cooper, convicted of murdering Josh Ryen’s family and his friend Chris Hughes and leaving Ryen for dead. Cooper maintains his innocence, and Newsom ordered an independent investigation of his case. “Josh has never received a call from Gavin Newsom,” Anderson said, calling the commutations “arrogant and political showmanship.”
Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho made the voters’ case. A blanket commutation stands “in direct conflict with the will of California voters,” he said. Californians have twice rejected abolishing the death penalty and in 2016 reaffirmed it through Proposition 66, the measure meant to speed up executions, Ho noted. It also ignores “the voices of victims who have waited decades for justice,” Ho said.
Marc Klaas, whose 12-year-old daughter Polly was kidnapped from her Petaluma home and murdered in 1993 by Richard Allen Davis, fears the commutations are a first step. “We’re all looking at the prospect of potentially them getting out someday, because they’re one step closer now,” he told the Mercury News. Spitzer made the same argument, pointing to state parole regulations that took effect Oct. 1 and, he said, make thousands of inmates serving life without parole eligible for parole. The governor’s office says the commutations release no one and make no one eligible for parole, and that the commuted prisoners are excluded from the parole board’s new commutation and resentencing rules.
Not every prosecutor objects. Santa Clara County District Attorney Jeff Rosen called the commutations “the right thing to do,” and Contra Costa District Attorney Diana Becton said they would “save California taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars.” The state has also set aside $239 million to turn San Quentin, home of the old death row, into a rehab center, as we reported.
Newsom leaves office in January and is weighing a 2028 presidential run. California has not executed anyone since 2006, and his successor, Xavier Becerra, has said he will extend the moratorium on executions Newsom imposed in 2019.
END\
NVIDIA….
Jensen Huang Had A “Romantic Relationship” With An Alleged Chinese Spy: Reports
Saturday, Nov 07, 2026 – 10:25 AM
The U.S. government believes Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had a romantic relationship with Alice Huang, a Megaspeed executive whom American intelligence believes was recruited to spy for China’s Ministry of State Security, the Financial Times reported Friday, according to people familiar with the matter.
According to the report, U.S. officials wrote a memo earlier this year – based on information obtained by American intelligence, which said Huang had been romantically involved with her. The memo was shared with a small group of top officials shortly before President Trump traveled to Beijing for his summit with Xi Jinping. Nvidia declined to comment on the memo and on the assertions that Huang had an intimate relationship with Alice Huang, who is not related to him.
That came hours after the New York Times reported on a memo that circulated among top policymakers in the Trump administration last spring cited intelligence that Alice Huang was a spy for the Ministry of State Security, Beijing’s main intelligence agency. According to that report, she was recruited to collect intelligence on Huang as part of a drive to learn more about American AI chips and potentially influence the company to push for its most advanced chips to be made available to China.
None of it appears to have cost Huang his access to the president. When Trump flew to China in May, Huang was not among the chief executives who left Washington on Air Force One, however after Trump learned Huang had been left out, he called the Nvidia CEO – who flew to Alaska and boarded the presidential jet during a stopover, the FT reported. In September, Huang attended the state dinner Trump held for Xi during his U.S. visit.
As we reported last week, U.S. intelligence agencies were conducting electronic surveillance of Alice Huang, a Chinese citizen, for at least a year, and that Trump was briefed last year on Huang’s relationship with her but chose not to do anything about it. On Thursday, the Republican chairmen of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the Intelligence Committee and the Select Committee on the CCP asked Huang to sit for a closed-door briefing on Nov. 18 about his dealings with her.
Alice Huang speaks English well and has relationships with executives at the highest levels of the AI chip industry, including Huang and the leaders of Gigabyte, one of the top assemblers of Nvidia supercomputers, according to people who have met her. It is unclear when the two first met. In 2024, around the time they were photographed together at a bar in Taipei, Megaspeed began a multibillion-dollar purchase of advanced AI chips. Photos and videos of the two together have been circulating on social media.
Megaspeed has been building data centers in Southeast Asia and renting their computing power to Alibaba, which the Times describes as a backdoor way for China to get at advanced Nvidia chips that the U.S. bars Nvidia from selling there directly. The company, spun off from a Chinese gaming company in 2023, has come under U.S. scrutiny for allegedly smuggling advanced Nvidia chips into China; Nvidia ran an internal probe and found no evidence of wrongdoing, according to the FT.
The network of Shanghai and Zhejiang companies and investors Alice Huang was connected to also has a financial link to China’s military establishment, through an investment in a cybersecurity subsidiary of China Electronics Technology Group, one of the country’s largest makers of military technology, the Times reported.
Peter Mattis, a former CIA counterintelligence analyst who now heads the Jamestown Foundation, told the Times that China’s spy agency sees technology as “the key fight for dominance in the economic world.” “Jensen is someone you’d want to influence because he wields a lot of power and is at the crux of a world-shaping technology,” he said.
And Huang has spent years lobbying Washington to let chip makers sell AI technology to China, arguing it would create competition for Huawei and slow its AI development. In 2025, he persuaded Trump to roll back a prohibition on AI chip sales to China and allow Nvidia to sell a less powerful chip there, then struck a deal with the president to sell Nvidia’s second-most-powerful chip, the H200, to China, with the U.S. taking a 25% cut. Trump later considered letting Nvidia sell China its latest Blackwell chip before backing off. In May, Huang said at an investor conference that China should not have access to Blackwell or the forthcoming Rubin chip. U.S. national security officials have privately expressed frustration about Huang, according to the FT.
Nvidia spokesman John Rizzo told the Times the company does not share classified information with its customers, and that customers do not ask Nvidia to press the U.S. government to change its chip policies on China. He has maintained that Huang’s interactions with Alice Huang were “not unusual.” A spokesman for the Chinese embassy called the Times’ reporting “unsubstantiated” and “nothing but smears against China”; the embassy did not respond to the FT. Alice Huang could not be reached for comment, and the White House and CIA declined to comment.
Meanwhile, the chips Huang fought to sell are reaching some strange places. The Commerce Department has approved roughly two dozen Chinese firms to buy or handle Nvidia’s H200 chips, some with ties to companies under U.S. sanctions, the Times reported Saturday. One, New Matrix, was cleared to assemble the chips into AI computers, yet its listed address in a Beijing industrial park is an empty shell with wires dangling from the ceiling, and its owners have ties to Wise Road, a Chinese private equity firm the U.S. blacklisted in 2024 for helping the Chinese government acquire strategically sensitive chip companies. Another approved assembler, Maginfra, also appeared deserted when a Times reporter visited; analysts believe it is an offshoot of Inspur, which is on the U.S. entity list for working with the Chinese military.
“I have a ton of concerns that neither the Commerce Department or Nvidia is doing the due diligence needed to ensure that the licensing terms are being followed,” said Liza Tobin, the former China director for the White House National Security Council. Rizzo told the Times that “it makes no sense for the Chinese military to depend on American technology,” while a spokesman for the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security said it carefully reviews all applications for national security risks.
Huang has until Nov. 11 to tell the three chairmen whether he’ll show up on Nov. 18 – the day after Nvidia reports earnings.
END
“I Was Unfaithful To My Wife”: Jensen Huang Admits Affair As Nvidia Board Launches Chinese Spy Probe
Sunday, Nov 08, 2026 – 03:11 PM
Update (1505ET): Jensen Huang has admitted to an affair, telling Nvidia staff in a memo that he was unfaithful to his wife, two days after the Financial Times reported that U.S. intelligence believes he had a romantic relationship with alleged Chinese spy Alice Huang. At the same time, Nvidia’s board is launching an independent investigation into whether its CEO was the target of a foreign intelligence effort.
“I was unfaithful to my wife,” Huang said in the memo. “My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did.”
He said he was “deeply sorry” and is fully cooperating with the investigation. “I love our country and our company, and I am committed to protecting Nvidia and supporting America’s national security,” he said. Huang will remain CEO pending the results of the probe.
I owe my family and all of you an apology.
I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry.
Throughout my life, my family has given me love and support. They deserve my honesty and loyalty. Instead, I let them down and damaged the life we built together. I take full responsibility for what I did and the hurt I caused, and I accept the criticism that comes with it.
To my wife and family: I love you. I know an apology cannot undo what I have done. I hope our family will heal and that, over time, I can earn back your trust.
To my colleagues at NVIDIA, including those I have worked alongside for decades, and to our board, partners, and shareholders around the world: you deserve better from me. Leading NVIDIA is the privilege of my life. My responsibility is to serve you and be worthy of your trust. I have fallen short of that responsibility. I am fully committed to NVIDIA and will work to earn back your confidence.
Regarding the national security concerns raised in news reports, NVIDIA’s Board of Directors has initiated an independent investigation. I support the investigation and will cooperate fully. I love our country and our company. I am committed to protecting NVIDIA and supporting America’s national security. I am proud and grateful to be an American.
My family bears no responsibility for my choices. I do. Please give them privacy.
Jensen
In a statement Sunday afternoon, the board said a committee of independent directors, assisted by outside independent counsel, will oversee the investigation, launched in light of recent reporting that Huang “has been the target of a foreign intelligence effort.” “While the board has no reason to believe that either national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised, the board’s inquiry will examine all available information,” the statement said. The board added that it has confidence in Huang and his leadership team.
Huang had previously insisted his dealings with Alice Huang were “normal,” telling Bloomberg as much last month, while Nvidia has said his interactions with her were “not unusual.”
Statement from NVIDIA Board of Directors
The NVIDIA Board is initiating an independent investigation in light of recent reporting that founder and CEO Jensen Huang has been the target of a foreign intelligence effort.A committee of independent directors, assisted by outside independent counsel, will oversee the investigation.
The Board prioritizes U.S. national and economic security, which is paramount to the interests of NVIDIA and its shareholders.While the Board has no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised, the Board’s inquiry will examine all available information.
Jensen fully supports the review and has committed to cooperating with it.
The Board has confidence in Jensen and his leadership team and will provide further updates as appropriate.
Nvidia has no public succession plan and no obvious heir apparent to the 63-year-old Huang, Bloomberg notes. The company hit a record market value of nearly $5.8 trillion in October but has since slipped below $5 trillion, and it reports earnings on Nov. 17 – the day before the House chairmen want Huang in for their closed-door briefing.
Or, was the CCP honeydicked?
END
MORE UPDATES NVIDIA
Nvidia Spy Scandal Widens: Feds’ Megaspeed Probe Was Derailed After Nvidia Came Knocking
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 11:19 AM
Update (1115ET): The Commerce Department’s investigation into Megaspeed was halted late last year after Nvidia’s general counsel reached out to the agents running it, the New York Times now reports.
According to the Times, investigators at Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security had spent months building a case that Megaspeed was smuggling Nvidia chips into China when, in August 2025, they got an email from Nvidia general counsel Tim Teter seeking information about the inquiry. Teter wrote that Jeff Kessler, their boss and a Trump-nominated under secretary, had given Nvidia permission to reach out about the case.
When the agents declined Nvidia’s request to meet with one of them, Teter replied that he was unsure what the issue was, since Kessler had said Nvidia could communicate with the bureau’s staff. The agents forwarded the chain to Kessler, who told them hours later to keep handling the case by the book. A Commerce official told the paper that Kessler never ordered anyone to share information with Nvidia. Some agents nonetheless saw his contact with Nvidia as a breach of procedure that could taint the case, and officials questioned why the department was discussing it at all with a company that had not been ruled out as a subject of the investigation.
Commerce disclosed the incident to partner agencies, the Justice Department asked it to pause its work, and the case went to DOJ, which is now running a criminal inquiry into Megaspeed. Agents who had spent months on the case were frustrated, and the handoff may have kept Commerce from moving faster to stop technology shipments to Megaspeed.
The Times also reports that since Trump’s return, Kessler and other department leaders have required that any investigation into Nvidia first get their approval. Other agencies have proposed adding Megaspeed to the entity list, but Commerce hasn’t acted, and the department has not added a single company to the entity list in more than a year, the longest such stretch in 18 years.
Commerce says it handled this and other actions strictly by the book, and DOJ declined to comment. Nvidia spokesman John Rizzo said the company consults with officials to help “halt any would-be smugglers.” Megaspeed said it is conducting its own internal investigation and that its repeated offers to cooperate with the US government went unanswered.
All of which sits awkwardly next to Nvidia’s line that the Megaspeed diversion claims were “investigated and debunked.” Megaspeed itself has pointed to inspections by Commerce’s BIS, Malaysia’s trade ministry and Nvidia that it says found “no evidence of any violations,” even as BIS agents were building a case that is now a criminal probe at DOJ. Commerce’s own handling of Nvidia is now on the table for the Nov 18 closed-door briefing.
Nvidia shares slid more than 5% on Monday as the board probe sank in, with this latest revelation causing the leg down circled below. 
Beijing’s foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun rejected the “so-called Chinese spy narrative” as unsubstantiated, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declined to comment on Sunday, calling it an “internal corporate matter,” and an Nvidia spokesperson insisted that “Today’s news will not slow Nvidia.” With Democrats having just won control of Congress, the oversight Lu describes is only likely to get tougher.
Trump Endorses Amnesty, Admits Deportations “Might Be Too Tough” An Hour Before Naming Their Architect Chief Of Staff
Sunday, Nov 08, 2026 – 11:00 PM
President Trump told “60 Minutes” that his deportation policy “might be too tough” and that he would “love to do something on immigration” with the Democrats about to take over Congress, in an interview taped Friday, his first since the midterms. An hour after the conversation, he replaced chief of staff Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller, the architect of that policy.
Asked by CBS correspondent Ross Douthat whether the crackdown hurt Republicans in the midterms, Trump answered: “I think it both helped and hurt. I think I got an A+ for closing up the border. I get very high marks for getting the bad ones out.” “But I get hurt because we also took people that had good jobs that created one violation for breaking of the law. And that was that they came into the country illegally.”
Douthat then asked: “So you think your deportation policy went too far?” “It was too tough,” Trump said. “I think it might be too tough. Yeah.”
He said the deal he has in mind with Democrats is “something that’s actually doable”: “some kind of legal status for the landscapers,” and for people like a hotel maid or waitress who are suddenly “taken out of the country.” “It’s tough,” he said. “It’s a tough thing.”
Trump said a group “on the sort of pretty far right” would like everybody removed, and when Douthat asked whether any of them work in his administration, he answered: “Well, there are a lot of those people.” Others, he said, are “more modified on that”: “get the killers out, get all the rough ones out, get the drug dealers out. But let the people that are here, and in some cases here for 10 and 15 years, work a deal for them.”
Does he expect Democrats to deal? “I think so, yeah. People have already called me,” Trump said, naming Texas Democrat James Talarico, whom he described as the state’s new senator and said he saw on Fox News saying immigration was something he wanted to work on.
Douthat noted Trump had called him “Tallafrico” during the campaign and asked: “If it took six months of not insulting the Democrats to get a deal done, do you think you could do it?” “Very easily,” Trump said.
Asked whether he would fire anyone after the midterms, Trump said he would be “doing maybe a few changes.” The first change came an hour after that conversation. Wiles was replaced by deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, “the architect of the president’s mass deportation policy,” 60 Minutes said in its report, “a move that seems to conflict with the president’s professed desire to work with Democrats on immigration.” As we reported, Trump named Miller the new chief of staff on Friday.
Douthat also asked whether Democrats, who will gain subpoena power, might impeach him again. “I can’t imagine it,” Trump said.
Oh…
END
The Top 0.1% Has More Than Doubled Its Wealth Since 2019
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 05:45 AM
America’s wealth divide is increasingly becoming a story not just of the rich versus everyone else, but of the ultra rich separating from even other wealthy Americans, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Federal Reserve data show that the wealth of the top 0.1% has more than doubled since the end of 2019, with the divergence accelerating around the pandemic. Much of that increase has come from soaring financial markets.
WSJ writes that the roughly 137,000 households in the top 0.1% now control about $28 trillion, or roughly 15% of the country’s estimated $186 trillion in total wealth. That works out to more than $200 million per household on average.
Since 2019, this group has added approximately $14.5 trillion in wealth, with around $10 trillion coming from stocks and mutual funds (before this week).
The richest Americans own enormous amounts of financial assets, meaning a rising stock market disproportionately increases their net worth. In the 12 months through June 30, as the S&P 500 climbed 21%, the top 0.1% accumulated nearly $4 trillion in additional market wealth.
The divide is enormous even among wealthy Americans. The rest of the top 10% gained about $38.2 trillion since 2019, but those gains were spread across nearly 100 times as many households.
The contrast with the bottom half is even sharper. The bottom 50% collectively owns only about $4 trillion, or 2.3% of U.S. wealth, despite benefiting from higher home prices, pandemic assistance and lower debt.
Average household wealth in the bottom half is roughly $63,000. The average household in the top 0.1% therefore owns more than 3,000 times as much.
The ultra wealthy also tend to make their money differently. Federal Reserve data analyzed by economists Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick found that 37% of households in the top 0.1% receive most of their income from businesses and another 26% from capital gains. Just 10% rely primarily on wages and salaries.
In 2022, a household needed roughly $45.8 million to reach the top 0.1%. Because the group’s wealth has increased substantially since then, that threshold is likely considerably higher today.
Americans across the wealth spectrum have benefited to varying degrees from rising wages, home values, entrepreneurship and financial markets. But ownership of appreciating assets remains heavily concentrated at the top.
That means powerful stock market rallies can widen existing disparities almost automatically. Those who begin with the largest portfolios capture the largest dollar gains, widening not only the gap between wealthy and ordinary households, but also the distance separating America’s richest households from the merely rich.
So maybe the plunge in valuations of stocks last week is narrowing that disparity… which ironically is what so many claim to have voted for.
END
US Warns Of Ongoing Cyber Threat To Industrial Freezers And Cold Storage
Sunday, Nov 08, 2026 – 09:35 PM
Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,
Federal agencies warned Thursday that hackers are targeting refrigeration systems used to store food and medicine, urging businesses to secure vulnerable controls amid attacks that could spoil supplies and damage equipment.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the FBI, and the departments of Health and Human Services and Agriculture and Transportation described the ongoing malicious activity as targeting unpatched or internet-accessible temperature and commercial refrigeration controllers.
The systems are widely used in healthcare, chemical, food and agriculture, and transportation operations.
In a fact sheet, officials said successful attacks could allow hackers to alter temperatures, force units into continuous heating or defrost cycles, and create risks including inventory loss, equipment damage, and potential fire hazards.
“Every organization that depends on refrigeration and monitoring systems should assume it could be a target,” Chris Butera, CISA’s acting executive assistant director for cybersecurity, said in a statement.
He urged operators to review the guidance and close known security gaps.
FBI Cyber Branch Operations Director Brett Leatherman said the agency is seeing the systems targeted across critical infrastructure sectors globally.
“These systems protect food, medicine and other temperature-sensitive products, making them attractive targets,” he said.
The FBI encouraged organizations to implement the recommended mitigations and report suspicious activity.
The agencies recommended that operators remove control systems from the public internet, change default and weak passwords, apply available patches, replace unsupported legacy devices, and limit or secure any necessary remote access.
Hackers Hit European Supermarkets
The warning follows a series of reported attacks on supermarket refrigeration systems in Europe.
On Monday, supermarket chains in Belgium, Ireland, Sweden, and other European countries reported that freezers and refrigerators had been remotely set to high temperatures.
Irish wholesaler Musgrave said a cyber incident affected refrigeration units in 13 SuperValu stores, forcing them to remove some chilled and frozen products.
Belgian and Luxembourg operators Delhaize and Colruyt, along with Carrefour, also reported impacts at multiple locations.
In Stockholm, an ICA store manager said that freezers reached 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) after an overnight attack that went undetected for hours. A Selver supermarket in Estonia was similarly affected.
Defrost Mode Triggered
The incidents follow a larger wave of attacks in France last month, in which refrigeration systems at hundreds of stores were reportedly forced into defrost mode for hours.
One French chain estimated losses in the tens of millions of euros from a single day’s disruption.
French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said roughly 700 of the country’s 10,000 supermarkets were affected and described the incident as a wake-up call for food security.
A separate cyberattack on Monday targeted refrigeration systems at three sites of France’s public blood service, forcing temperatures to rise in cold storage rooms. Officials said monitoring and alarm systems allowed rapid response, and no blood products were compromised.
U.S. officials did not attribute the European incidents to any specific group or confirm whether they have detected similar attacks inside the United States.
Reuters contributed to this report.
END
Jeffries Flips: Two Days After Hedging, He’s A “Hard Yes” On Impeaching Hegseth
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 10:35 AM
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” that he is “a hard yes” on the impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, telling host Jonathan Karl that “Pete Hegseth has got to go,” according to ABC News. The Epoch Times, which transcribed the interview, has him adding that the “so-called secretary of defense has abused his power, undermined our national security and engineered this reckless and costly war of choice in Iran.”
In an NPR “Morning Edition” interview on Nov. 6, Jeffries called Hegseth “the most unqualified secretary of defense in American history” and said “He’s got to go,” but when asked directly about impeachment he said, “I don’t want to get out ahead of the caucus,” per NPR’s write-up. On Wednesday, the morning after Democrats won the House and Senate, he told reporters that not one House Democrat had raised impeachment with him, as we reported.
Asked on Sunday whether all House Democrats would follow him, Jeffries did not claim a whip count. “We’ll certainly have that conversation on Tuesday morning when we reconvene for the first time in Washington, D.C.,” he said, adding that he expects “incredibly strong support” for the resolution.
The impeachment articles are not a Democratic vehicle: they belong to Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who is leaving Congress after losing his primary to a Trump-backed challenger and plans to reintroduce his impeachment articles as early as Monday, ABC reports. Because it is a privileged resolution, leaders must schedule a vote within two legislative days, or move to table it.
Massie first filed the 34-page, eight-article resolution on the House floor on Sept. 15. CBS News summarized it as charging that Hegseth violated the 1973 War Powers Resolution by waging the Iran war without a declaration from Congress, ignored laws meant to limit civilian casualties (including a strike on a girls’ school in Iran), and retaliated against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) after he urged service members to “refuse illegal orders.” Others cover boat strikes in the Caribbean, the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and strikes on Yemen. The Pentagon’s press secretary, Kingsley Wilson, answered at the time that Hegseth is a “transformative leader” and the department is “unified behind the Secretary’s vision.”
Speaker Mike Johnson sent members home early for the campaign recess without a House vote, and Massie said in an October post that he would reintroduce the articles when Congress returned, per Scripps. After the election he added a condition. “There is one contingency in which I won’t reintroduce the articles of impeachment: Hegseth resigns,” he wrote on X on Wednesday. He has also urged Trump to fire Hegseth quickly so the Republican Senate could confirm a successor before Democrats take over in January, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reports.
Neither man at the top of the administration is budging. Hegseth answered in a roughly six-minute video on X on Thursday, calling Massie “a disgruntled, defeated congressman” who, “along with all his Democrat allies, has also dropped sham articles of impeachment against yours truly.” Trump has said Hegseth is doing a “fantastic job” and that he intends to keep him, per ABC and the Star-Advertiser. Vice President JD Vance, for his part, blamed the midterm rout on the war: “The reason we lost is the war.”
Even if the House impeaches Hegseth, the Senate must begin a trial unless Republicans vote to set it aside, and conviction takes a two-thirds vote that Democrats, who take control of the chamber only in January, would need many Republicans to reach. House Democrats had already introduced their own six articles against Hegseth in April over the Iran war, per Scripps. What changes Tuesday is the leader of the caucus attaching his name to a Republican’s resolution, days after saying he would not get ahead of his members.
END
Lacalle: Republicans Gave Voters ‘Mild Socialism’ – And Lost…
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 02:05 PM
Republicans Abandoned Libertarian Principles… and Lost the Elections
Tuesday’s midterm elections were a rout. Democrats picked up seven Senate seats, including Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio, and flipped more than forty House districts, some of which Donald Trump had carried by double digits only two years ago.
Commentators will blame candidate quality, redistricting, or the president’s personality. The real lesson is simpler, and the Republican establishment will not like it. A party that claims to defend limited government but chooses to tax imports, run two-trillion-dollar deficits, and fund expensive wars ends up judged on what big government delivers. This week voters judged it, and they didn’t like what they got.
A party that trades liberalization for government intervention and adopts part of the left’s populist agenda, including blaming businesses for price increases or promising money paid with more debt, immediately sees how voters shift to the radical left that promise 100% interventionism. It happened in Europe, and it is happening in America.
The exit polls make the point clearly. Nearly nine in ten voters said the cost of living was a crucial or major factor in their decision, and a majority believed the administration’s policies, including the Iran war and tariffs, had made their economic situation worse. Seven in ten said they wanted Congress to place more checks and balances on the president. Voters were asking for restraint on power, which used to be the Republican message.
The left is never blamed for their inflationism, but conservatives need to prove that they act on affordability the right way. Rejecting the libertarian and freedom values for an alleged electoral strategy backfires.
Start with the fiscal record. The federal deficit reached $2.0 trillion in fiscal year 2026, a reduction driven by tariff revenues, not budget control. Gross national debt crossed $40 trillion in August and now stands above $40.5 trillion, and debt held by the public exceeds annual GDP. With unified control of Washington, Republicans could have cut spending, closed programs, and reformed entitlements. Instead, they cut taxes without cutting spending more decisively. Granted that the biggest part of the spending problem comes from mandatory items, but the responsibility for discretionary spending, deregulation, and liberalization is entirely in the hands of the White House, Congress, and the Senate. Austrian economists have long warned that the true burden of government is what it spends, because whatever the state consumes must be paid for through taxes, borrowing, or inflation.
Tariffs gave the inflation narrative to the left. The blame game shifted from the destruction of purchasing power caused by the currency to individual prices, instead of reminding everyone that inflation is a monetary phenomenon resulting from the insanity implemented in 2020-2021. An administration that openly toyed with the idea of a dollar debasement and weakening the currency as a trade tool created the foundation of the boomerang effect of affordability in the elections. The same arguments that made Biden fall demolished Republicans in the midterms.
Then there is inflation. Consumer prices rose 3.7 percent in the twelve months to September, with energy up 20.4 percent and gasoline up 34.2 percent. Producer prices for final demand rose 6.3 percent. Money supply growth was never discussed. Sound money was never an option. Thus, the narrative was given to socialists in a silver plate.
War disrupts supply, but war is also the most significant government program of all, and someone always pays for it. An administration that rose to power on the promise of peace and non-intervention entered a war that it did not explain, with conflicting messages of deals, threats, and abandonment.
Many positive things have been done. Eliminating US aid that fueled political radicalism all over the world, reducing federal employment, deregulating energy, healthcare, and housing, banning central bank digital currencies, reducing taxes, and attracting manufacturing back. Such progress was not enough because this is what the daily job entails, not something to cheer. No one rewards a government for doing what it should. Voters penalize governments for not doing what they said they would do.
Ludwig von Mises explained a century ago that interventionism creates the very problems it then claims to solve and that each failed intervention invites the next. The response to price pressure from conflict followed that pattern exactly. Washington offered checks, subsidies, and promises of more control when it should have deregulated, cut spending, and stepped back. Considering the alternatives, voters saw socialism as a logical step only because it promised even more ludicrous stuff.
People do not understand why socialism attracts citizens despite its obvious failure everywhere it is implemented. The reason is the same as why religious sects succeed despite outlandish beliefs. Precisely because the promises and beliefs are outlandish is because they succeed. Republicans should read Gramsci and Foucault and understand that whitewashing interventionism only makes the socialist nightmare more plausible.
Republicans won in 2024 by promising lower prices, smaller government, and an end to the previous administration’s fiscal recklessness and warmongering. Most of the voters who backed them were never asking for directed industrial policy, managed trade, currency debasement, or adventures abroad. They wanted to keep more of what they earn, pay less for energy and food, and be left alone. The party gave them persistent inflation and more executive power, and many of those voters stayed home or switched sides.
This is the biggest lesson for conservative parties globally. When you adopt 50% of the left’s policies, libertarian and nationalist voters abandon them, and the rest switch to full-blown interventionism.
Instead of reminding citizens that the best thing that government can do is to stop interfering, Republicans gave the extreme left the arguments to defend French-style interventionism, regardless of the evident consequences. As in France, part of the blame lies in conservatives who abandon the ideas of small government and non-intervention.
Democrats would be wrong to read this result as a mandate for more spending, more regulation, and more money printing. The same voters who punished Republicans over the cost of living will punish any party that makes life more expensive, and expanding the state is the surest way to do that. Republicans may have a double opportunity: reclaim the libertarian and freedom values while radical left governors make things worse. In Europe, the best way to get rid of the radical left had to be allowing them to rule in big cities and some national governments. Unfortunately, the economic outcome is negative for all, and the radical left does not abandon its policies just because they fail. However, conservatives and libertarians do not have the luxury of having a sectarian voter base that will accept anything as long as “their side” wins. They need to prove results to their voters. This can only be achieved by returning to the principles of sound money, fiscal discipline, liberalization, deregulation, and low taxes.
Many say that the best thing that can happen to America is to try socialism and see the failure, returning to mainstream conservatism. Europe tells you a different story. California does too. Socialists abandon the left-wing wreck but vote for socialists in the state they move to.
When socialism fails, as it always does, it resorts to repression, propaganda, and even more intervention. Republicans or any alternative should not hope to prove they are a lesser evil. They should prove that they are the only option to deliver more freedom. Americans want more freedom, not smarter interventionism.
The cultural battle is also essential. The ideas of freedom do not rise when the entire mainstream rejects them. The average voter believes that they are impossible utopian messages. Abandoning the cultural battle is losing to the Gramscian propaganda.
The lesson from Tuesday is not that you must be more socialist to win. It is that if you become mildly socialist, you are validating full-blown interventionism, and you will never win.
The lesson for Republicans should be clear. Never believe that your voters will accept the second worst. The way back to a majority runs only through the principles the party abandoned (some may say decades ago), and that means sound money, free trade, balanced budgets, real deregulation, and restraint abroad. Those ideas aren’t relics of a purist past. They are the only reliable way to deliver what voters asked for on Tuesday, which is a government that costs less and an economy that leaves families with more.
BOEING
Boeing To Cut Thousands Of Workers As Slower Factory Ramp Leaves It “Overstaffed”
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 01:50 PM
Less than two weeks after Boeing slashed its commercial aircraft delivery outlook, which sent shares tumbling, a report on Monday afternoon says the 737 planemaker is preparing to cut thousands of jobs.
CNBC cites Stephanie Pope, head of the commercial aircraft unit, who told employees in a memo today that Boeing will reduce its commercial airplane workforce size by 5%. She said the move comes as production ramp-ups for popular jets are moving more slowly than previously anticipated.
“Adjusting our production schedules and reducing aircraft output puts us in an overstaffed position,” she said in the note.
Pope said, “Unfortunately, that means we need to align our staffing levels to our revised business plan, resulting in a reduction of approximately 5% through a combination of attrition and involuntary layoffs, with notifications beginning in December.”
She added, “We need to reset the pace of our production rate ramps to provide our factories and supply chain partners additional time to achieve stability.”
Boeing’s latest investor slide deck shows 50,494 workers in the commercial airplane unit, so a 5% reduction equals about 2,525 workers.
This planned cut marks the first workforce reduction since CEO Kelly Ortberg cut 17,000 jobs after joining the company in late 2024.
Boeing shares are stuck in a bear market, down about 20.5% year-to-date.
GRAHAM SUMMERS
| Voters Didn’t Reject AI. They Rejected Their Power Bill. |
| By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist |
| Thursday was the worst day for stocks since April 2025. The S&P 500 fell 4.4%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4%, and the semiconductor index dropped 12%. Roughly $2.5 trillion in market value disappeared in a session. The explanation making the rounds is that the AI bubble met a blue wave. Both halves of that are wrong, and getting it wrong will cost you money. Start with what actually happened on Tuesday. Voters in ten states decided 41 local ballot measures on data center development, and the results ran almost unanimously against the data centers. Ohio alone had 13 approved measures, and they were not subtle: Granville, Hubbard, and Urbana banned data centers outright. Conneaut, Defiance, and Sunbury capped them at 25 megawatts. Grove City now requires a public referendum for any large industrial project. Maine towns passed retroactive moratoriums. Kansas towns banned anything over 25 megawatts. Edgewater, Florida amended its charter to bar new data centers from being approved, built, expanded, or operated. Then the governors. The incoming governors of Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, New Mexico, and Texas all campaigned on pausing or restricting new data center construction. New York’s statewide moratorium has been in place since July, and the new governors of New York and Oregon ran on extending the ones they already have. Wells Fargo estimates 27% of all planned U.S. data center gigawatts sit in Texas alone. Cleanview, a market intelligence firm, puts roughly 40% of planned national capacity in the states that just voted for a pause. Now the part everyone is skipping. The Texas pause did not start on Tuesday. On August 3, Greg Abbott, a Republican, ordered ERCOT to halt every data center in its interconnection queue pending a statewide audit of power supply, on-site generation, water use, and tax incentives. Projects that fail the audit “must be denied” grid connection. Gina Hinojosa beat him on Tuesday promising to keep that pause in place. She will not need a new law. The freeze is already there, and it was put there by the other party. |
 |
| Nothing about this is partisan, and nothing about it is anti-technology. Nobody in Granville, Ohio voted against artificial intelligence. They voted against a 300-megawatt facility next to the high school that would be first in line for the local utility’s power while their own bills went up to pay for the transmission upgrades. That complaint does not have a party, and it is going to show up in every state where a hyperscaler wants to plug in.Here is why this matters more than one bad week in the Nasdaq. I have written for months that the U.S. is running a wartime economy, with the federal government directing capital into the AI buildout in three phases: compute first, then power, then application. Phase one is done. Washington funded the chips, and the chips are being made. Phase two, power, is the hard part, and last week Elon Musk said out loud what the industry has known all year: by the end of 2026 the U.S. will be producing more AI chips than it can turn on, because chip output is compounding and electricity supply is flat. What Tuesday added is that phase two is not Washington’s call. The federal government can fund fabs and subsidize chips. It cannot site a substation, approve a gas plant, or connect a data center to the grid. Those decisions belong to governors, public utility commissions, and town councils, and a meaningful share of them just said no. The wartime economy ran into federalism, and federalism won the first round.The buildout survives this. What changes is its shape, and the reshaping is where the money is. The hyperscalers have a trillion dollars committed and chips arriving on trucks. They are not going to abandon the projects. They are going to do whatever the pause states demand to get reconnected, and the Texas audit already tells you what that is. Abbott’s order specifically asks every project in the queue to document its on-site generation and the measures it will take to reduce grid demand. Read that as the new price of admission. The data centers that get built from here will be the ones that bring their own power: gas turbines on site, battery storage, small nuclear where it can be permitted, and private transmission that does not touch the residential grid. “Bring your own power” is about to go from a nice-to-have to a condition of the permit. That moves the value upstream, away from the data center itself and toward everything that lets a data center exist without angering a voter. Gas turbines, which already have multi-year backlogs. Transformers and switchgear, same story. Natural gas supply and the pipelines that deliver it to a site. Grid-scale storage. Uranium and the nuclear supply chain, which the pause states will discover is the only large-scale option that does not raise anyone’s bill. And the companies that already own permitted generation with an interconnection in hand, because that asset just became scarce. Notice who fell hardest on Thursday: the chip makers and the neocloud operators, the companies whose business depends on being able to turn servers on. The equipment makers fell too, but they are the ones who get paid to solve the problem. That is the gap to trade. |
 |
| So here is my call, and I will put a date on it. By the end of the first quarter of 2027, Texas will resolve its audit by reopening interconnections for projects that commit to on-site generation and grid-demand reduction, and at least two of the other pause states will adopt the same framework. The practical result is a multi-year surge in orders for power generation and grid equipment, concentrated in a handful of suppliers who were already sold out. The simplest way to own that in one position is the First Trust Smart Grid Infrastructure ETF (GRID), which holds the transmission, switchgear, and grid equipment makers that every pause state will need before it lifts a pause. If you prefer to own the fuel rather than the equipment, natural gas producers and exporters are the other side of the same trade. What would make me wrong: a state actually banning on-site gas generation, or the hyperscalers cutting capex guidance in January rather than redirecting it. Watch for those. I do not expect either. The tech sector will spend the next few weeks arguing about whether the AI trade is over. It just got a new address and a new set of suppliers, and the people selling the equipment are about to have the best pricing power in the market. Thursday’s crash was not a verdict on the AI trade. It was a margin call. Sixteen percent of Goldman’s entire hedge fund financing book was tied to AI memory stocks going into the fall. The funds that owned them on borrowed money all got the same call on the same afternoon and sold at the same time. That is why semiconductors fell 12% on a headline that was worth maybe 4%. Here is what that means. Thursday’s low was a liquidation low, not a valuation low. The same funds that were forced to sell are now sitting on flat years, eight weeks from reporting to their investors, against an S&P 500 that is up double digits. The moment chips stop making new lows on bad news, those funds will be forced to chase. The pressure only builds from here, and most investors have no idea it is coming. This week’s Private Wealth Advisory issue, out today, lays out exactly that: the anatomy of the liquidation, the one test that tells you when the forced selling is finished, why the party that took Congress is three parties and only one of them can stop a data center, and precisely what I am doing with every position in the portfolio. Our last six closed trades were all winners. The service has a 75% win rate since 2015 and has doubled the S&P 500’s return since 2020. A 30-day trial is $2.99. You get today’s issue, the next three, every trade in them, and a copy of my book The Everything Bubble. The funds that got margin-called last week paid a great deal more than that for the same lesson. |
KING NEWS
| The King Report November 9, 2026 Issue 7865 | Independent View of the News |
| October NFP 165k, 65k-70k expected; September NFP revised from +29k to +60k (+31k). August NFP revised from +133k to +186k (+53k). Two-month revision +84k. Zero Hedge: In October the number of full-time jobs soared by 714K, the second highest monthly increase in 2026, while part-time jobs plunged by 242K… in October we saw 809K foreign-born workers added, the biggest increase since Jan 2025, while native-born workers dropped by 64K.https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-jobs-soar-165k-blowing-away-estimates-unemployment-rate-drops-putting-dec-rate-hike-backEstablishment Survey (CES)Wages +0.4% m/m & 3.1% y/y, 0.3% m/m & 2.9% y/y expected; Workweek 34.4 hours as expected;Mfg. +19k; Professional & business services +70k; Heath Care +41.6k with Hospitals +16k; Social Assistance +13.5k; Transportation & Warehousing +24.8k with Couriers & Messengers +17.4k; Retail +6k; Leisure & Hospitality -13k, Gov’t +6k with State Education +11.5khttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htmSeasonal Adjustment for October 2025: -947k; Seasonal Adjustment for October 2026: -984kOct 2025 Birth/Death Model jobs: +372k; Oct 2026 Birth/Death Model jobs: +412khttps://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htmChange in seasonal adjustments -37k; change in B/D Model job +40k; Net +3k jobs from Oct 2025Household SurveyEmployed +463k, Unemployed -41k; Unemployment Rate -0.1 to 4.1%, 4.2% expected; Civilian Labor Force +421k, Labor Force Participation Rate +0.1 to 61.9%; Employment-Population Ratio +0.1 to 59.3%https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htmThe market repriced December Fed rate hike odds to 70%. Bonds sank. Traders poured into busted AI Bubble stocks and select Fangs. Friday’s rally was the usual suspects buying trading sardines.Near 10:50 ET: MU +5.83%, NVDA +4.46%, AMD +9.9%, SNDK +5.65%, SPCX +6.41%, TSLA +4.66%, TSM +5.8%, INTC +7.19%, AMZN +1.33%, GOOGL +1.98%, APPL +0.21%, MSFT -0.16%The S&P 500 Index opened moderately higher on Friday and jumped to 7444.20 (+90.47 pts) at 9:54 ET on feverish trader buying. Alas, organic buyers remain in short supply. So, the S&P rolled over into a trading range until it broke lower at 12:36 ET. After falling to 7374.07 at 12:53 ET, buying for the expected Friday Afternoon Rally began. The S&P Index moved back into the trading range.At 14:40 ET, the S&P 500 Index broke lower and fell to 7373.48 at 15:55 ET. The late manipulation aborted quickly; the S&P 500 Index closed at 7376.86, +0.31%Schwab’s @KevRGordon: S&P 500 +0.77% with 327 members declining 10:06 AM · Nov 6, 2026Nov UM Consumer Sentiment 51, 48 exp, Current Conditions 51, 48 exp, Expectations 50.9, 49.5m exp; 1-year Inflation 4.3%, 4.7% exp, 5-10-year Inflation 3.4%, 3.6% exp. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/@AlanReynoldsEcn: Real disposable income per capita is one of the best summary measures for the pace of improvement in average U.S. “affordablity.” It captures increases in income and adjusts that for increases in prices. It also reflects income tax cuts or increases. Trump’s second term began January 2025 and he spent much to the time since repeatedly boasting that the U.S. economy was the best ever- like nobody’s ever seen before. The graph shows the annual rate of change in Real Disposable Income per capita has been anemic since January 2025, and particularly since April of that year when he launched his unpredictable, disruptive capricious trade war... https://x.com/AlanReynoldsEcn/status/2118407743098741083Positive aspects of previous session S&P 500 +0.41%, Nas 100 +1.35%, Nasdaq +1.09%, SOX Index +4.21%SP Info Tech +1.26%, Comm Services +0.52%, Industrials +0.13%, Consumer Discretionary +0.07%Dec Diesel fell 2.1¢; Dec gold -41.20 at 16:25 ET Negative aspects of previous session DJIA -0.46%, DJTA -0.72%; PHLX Housing Index -2.27%; USZs -9/32 at 16:25 ET on Friday.SP Consumer Staples -1.21%, Financials -0.68%, Real Estate -0.64%, Materials -0.59%, Utes -0.42%, Heath Care -0.11%, Energy -0.07Dec WTI Crude settled at $90.83, +31¢ 0.34%. Dec Gasoline settled +1.33¢, Jan Brent + a few ¢ Ambiguous aspects of previous session Why was the rebound on Friday so puny? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7396.87Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7444.20 (9:54 ET); 7369.55 (9:30 ET) @realDonaldTrump: I am pleased to announce that Mr. Stephen Miller, the current Deputy Chief of Staff of the Trump Administration, and one of my most trusted advisors, will become the Chief of Staff starting Monday, November 9, 2026. Susie Wiles, who has done an outstanding job, will be moving over to the Trump Political Operation… Nov 06, 2026, 13:51 PM@JacquiHeinrich: Susie Wiles resigned last night, a White House official tells FOX. Steven Miller is new Chief of Staff. (Most pundits blame Trump’s 2nd term missteps on Susie Wiles.)@AFpost on Friday: Susie Wiles and her close aide were screamed at and kicked out of the Oval Office by President Trump last night… This was after the President became aware of Susie’s efforts to scapegoat Pete Hegseth for the midterm catastrophe and her leaking info about him to the media. Presidential Personnel Office (PPO) Deputy Director Morgan DeWitt-Snow was also shouted at by Trump and followed Susie Wiles out of the Oval. Morgan controls staffing for the Trump administration… https://x.com/SteveCortes/status/2118733646861414493Stephen Miller is probably the most hard-nosed Team Trump member, especially on illegal immigration. MAGA and the DJT core are elated with Miller’s appointment. Miller is a ‘Wartime Consiglieri,’ which means Trump intends to ‘go to the mattresses’ for the MAGA agenda.@realDonaldTrump: I am pleased to announce that the Great Dana White, a violent Fighter and Warrior, has been offered the job of Press Secretary of the United States. I have requested that he bring with him assistants, even though some are not from our Country, of Islam Makhachev, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Justin Gaethje, Daniel Cormier, Amanda Nunes, and Kayla Harris. We need these people to defend us against the Lunatic Left. Dana will be a Press Secretary like none other. Dana, please take the job! President DONALD J. TRUMP Nov 07, 2026, 13:40 PM@HormuzLetter: Trump may have accidentally chosen the wrong Dana White for his White House Press Secretary offer. There is a woman named “Dana White” who is the former Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs, more commonly known as the Pentagon’s chief spokesperson, from April 2017 to the end of 2018… Someone at the White House likely recommended her to Trump and he thought they meant UFC CEO Dana White, then went ahead and announced it on Truth Social thinking it’s his UFC friend, and nobody around him was willing to correct him…@Reuters: Trump says ‘only kidding’ about naming UFC CEO as White House press secretaryWaPo: Democrats are laying the groundwork to investigate some of the country’s largest companies, setting off a scramble among executives who courted the president…Democrats are preparing to unleash a wave of investigations that will probe the most sensitive and controversial actions of America’s largest corporations over the past two years, sparking a reckoning among Silicon Valley and Wall Street executives who courted the Trump administration…Days after winning majorities in the House and Senate, Democrats are setting sharp priorities. They are zeroing in on Apple, Meta and the companies led by Elon Musk as early targets for congressional investigations, according to two people familiar with the plans…This report is based on interviews with five congressional staffers, lobbyists, venture capitalists and lawyers familiar with the preparations… Tech executives “are going to need to plant new forests for all of the subpoenas we’ll be printing,” Sen. Ed Markey (D-Massachusetts) said Tuesday night in a post on X… https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/11/06/after-courting-trump-corporate-america-faces-democratic-reckoning/@realDonaldTrump: The Democrats are going around threatening a lot of people, including the Attorney General of the United States, and others, with Impeachment and many other forms of punishment, even though they admit they have no reason to do so, and there have been no impeachable acts committed, or even thought of, by the victims of this illegal process. This is extortion at the highest level, and they should be held accountable for this. Also, they’re threatening our Donors… with imprisonment, and many other levels of punishment, just because they happen to be Republicans, or Republican supporters. This is Weaponization and Lawfare at another level. The Senator from Michigan, Elissa Slotkin, is saying that she is going to go after all young people that believe in Republican Values, and that give even the slightest inclination to be a Republican. The imprisonment should be against these EXTORTIONISTS, and Republicans should get smart, fast! Threatening letters have been sent to many people, all innocent, from Democrat Political Leaders. By copy of this statement, I am ordering the Department of Justice to look into this criminal act, immediately!The threats being made by the Democrat Party against innocent Republican Donors and Party Members are absolutely unprecedented, and totally illegal. Please report them to the Department of Justice, IMMEDIATELY! If you would like, send them directly to me, your President. These SLEAZEBAGS should go to jail for what they are doing. The Senate must act, and stop being pushed around to the point of the Republican Party losing Elections, and worse! Likewise, the DOJ and House of Representatives…. President DONALD J. TRUMP Nov 07, 2026, 13:45 PMHouse leader Hakeem Jeffries says Dems will refuse to work with Trump’s new chief of staff Stephen Miller https://trib.al/HlqkPRsThe MSM and Dems demand that the GOP ‘work with them’ when the GOP wins. When the GOP wins, ‘they’ resist and encourage others to ‘resist.’@RealEJAntoni: Yikes – consumer credit exploded in Sep, up more than 6% and the fastest rate since ’22, as people covered rising costs w/ credit cards; nonrevolving debt was also up:Trump’s ‘Doomsday Plane’ built to survive nuclear war is spotted flying across US on undisclosed mission (on Thursday) https://www.dailymail.com/sciencetech/article-16269699/trump-doomsday-plane-flight-virginia.htmlU.S. carries out new strikes on Iran as Tehran negotiates nuclear proposals with mediatorsPresident Donald Trump described the strikes as “minor”https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/us-carries-out-new-strikes-iran-tehran-negotiates-nuclear-proposals@OilHeadlineNews: Donald Trump was on the verge of ordering a large scale military strikes against Iran but paused at the last minute to give JD Vance several days to pursue diplomacy, as Israel had already prepared its military for an expected U.S. attack following an emergency Friday security meeting called by Benjamin Netanyahu, per i24NEWS.@clashreport: Trump on Iran: We won in Iran. It’s just a question of closing it out now or later. We may wait. Some of their neighbors would prefer that we just keep it the way it is. We haven’t lost anybody. No soldiers lost. (23 US GI deaths in Iran so far.) https://x.com/clashreport/status/2119574458889556046Pentagon raises official death toll from Iran war to 23https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2026-10-29/pentagon-iran-war-troops-deaths-23299434.htmlFT: US believes Nvidia’s Huang had romantic relationship with alleged Chinese spyAmerican intelligence warned the tech boss was involved with executive recruited by China to gather information on US group… https://www.ft.com/content/a55a2a22-4479-4f93-a445-6147a5c6d790?syn-25a6b1a6=1NYT: Nvidia Opens Investigation into Jensen Huang’s Relationship with Chinese SpyMr. Huang, the company’s chief executive, acknowledged on Sunday that he was intimate with a business executive who U.S. officials had determined was working for Chinese intelligence.https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/08/technology/nvidia-investigation-jensen-huang-china.htmlTrump on Jensen Huang affair: “He’s a fine person… I hope everything if fine… He probably has an excuse for it… We have the hottest country anywhere in the world. We have the highest stock market… I wasn’t on the ballot… The market went down at a level that I guess almost hasn’t been seen before.”https://x.com/RealNickMugalli/status/2119574452522688954@clashreport: Q: Is Jensen Huang going with you on your trip to Asia? Trump: I don’t know; I would certainly take him. I haven’t heard he’s done anything wrong. He dealt with somebody, but so does everybody else. https://x.com/clashreport/status/2119577378082918673Rubio Warned Officials About Nvidia Chief’s Entanglement with Chinese Spy – NYTMr. Rubio’s memo was circulated to administration officials with high-level security clearances ahead of a trip Mr. Trump took to China in May… The president chose at that point not to take any action. He has viewed Nvidia’s chips as integral to America’s competition with China in A.I. He sees Nvidia’s success as crucial to maintaining a robust stock market… https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/08/us/politics/rubio-nvidia-ceo-chinese-spy.htmlTrump administration scraps meeting of high-profile tech panelThe Trump administration canceled a meeting on Friday of a White House tech panel that includes Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, an Energy Department spokesperson said… The group also includes AMD CEO Lisa Su, Oracle Chief Technology Officer Larry Ellison and Marc Andreessen, the co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz. Its co-chairs are venture capitalist David Sacks and White House tech adviser Michael Kratsios…https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-scraps-meeting-panel-that-includes-metas-zuckerberg-nvidias-2026-11-06/Today – The rebound rally on Friday was puny compared to the carnage on Thursday. The S&P 500 rebounded only 0.31% vs -4.36% on Thursday. The Nas 100 was +1.35% on Friday vs -6.36% on Thursday. Nasdaq -5.52% on Thursday vs + 1.09% on Friday. The DJIA on Friday -0.46%. Nevertheless, the usual suspects want to play for the Monday Rally – just like they stupidly played for the pattern of the post-Midterm Rally without regard to the fundamentals. This is why equity futures tumbled at their open on Sunday night on NVDA (-3.4% 18:50 ET) and ugly political news but turned positive in 6 minutes on manic buying. NQZs rallied 383.00 from 18:01 to 18:21 ET. Congressional Dems and Trump have declared war on each other. Dems have threatened Trump, his family, his Team, his donors, and friendly corporations with lawfare. Trump in return is assembling a ‘War Cabinet.’ He appointed a wartime consigliere as COS; wants UFC Chief Dana White as Press Sec, and has told the DoJ, which Trump runs, to prosecute Dem extortionists. Bigmouth Dems apparently forgot who controls the DoJ!Trump did NOT go after Dems, notably Hillary, in his first term, and has refrained from going after Dems, notably Obama, Biden, et al, in his 2nd term. But now that gloves are off – decades of Mutually Assured Destruction that prevented prosecutions of insiders and pols might be ending.Lawfare on steroids could be nigh; it would be very bad for stocks and bonds. ESZs +8.75; NQZs -21.50, USZs -10/32, Dec WTI -$0.11, Dec Gas +0.45¢, ¥/$ 158.35 at 20:00 ETExpected Economic Data: Oct NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.8%; 3-year note auction $58B; Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 10:00 ETThis is Treasury Auction Week: $58B of 3s today; $42B of 10s Tuesday, and $25B of 30s on ThursdayT-Bills Auctions today: $100B of 6-week; $95B of 13-week, and $82B of 26-week S&P 500 50-day MA: 7659; 100-day MA: 7619; 200-day MA: 7323 (Close 7376.86, +0.31%)Nasdaq 100 50-day MA: 29,634; 100-day MA: 29,454; 200-day MA: 29,984 (Close 26,989.99, +1.35%) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,065, 100-day MA: 52,410; 200-day MA: 50,677 (Close 51,285.73, -0.46%) Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)President Trump Amplifies Explosive “15% Band” Analysis Exposing Democrats’ Algorithmic Pattern in 2026 Midterms by ‘TruthIsFreedom’ Following Gateway Pundit Reports — For Every 1,000 Trump Votes, 150 Shifted to Democrats Across the MapThe theory, dubbed the “85/15 Algorithm” that was originally posted by Truth Is Freedom X account, suggests that Republican candidates received approximately 85% of President Trump’s 2024 vote share, while Democrats gained an amount equivalent to the remaining 15 percentage points of Trump’s share, as The Gateway Pundit reported earlier… According to the post, one mathematical formula reportedly describes the shift: Republican 2026 vote share = 0.85 × Trump’s 2024 vote share Democrat 2026 vote share = Harris’s 2024 vote share + 0.15 × Trump’s 2024 vote share…What makes the pattern so suspicious is its uniformity. It did not matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, and Massachusetts all showed the same roughly 15% shift (p = 0.69)…https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/11/president-trump-amplifies-explosive-15-band-analysis-exposing/@JeffereyJaxen: Mark Mitchell describing the call he received from White House chief of staff Susie Wiles about his X post: “You know what Susie was mad about… It was a Tweet criticizing Ballard…(Ballard Partners: Lobbyists for large pharmaceutical & healthcare firms, notably PFE. Wiles was a managing partner for Ballard Partners.) https://x.com/JeffereyJaxen/status/2118560726235177244NYT: Trump Chief of Staff Accused of Blocking Healthy-Food Policies to Attract DonationsCalley Means, who resigned as a top federal health official two weeks ago after clashing with the White House, on Friday accused President Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, of bowing to “unrelenting” pressure from industry lobbyists while prioritizing political fund-raising over Americans’ health…In a two-hour interview with the podcaster Joe Rogan, Mr. Means said that Ms. Wiles withheld support from his efforts to make children’s diets healthier, citing the need for sugar industry money. He said her team demanded more approvals of flavored e-cigarettes, a top priority for major tobacco companies that donated at least $20 million to the G.O.P. in 2026. And he said they gave in to heavy lobbying from the kratom industry to relax proposed restrictions on products often referred to as “gas station heroin.” “Susie said to me many times: ‘We need money for the midterms, Calley. We need money for the midterms,’” Mr. Means said… https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/06/us/politics/susie-wiles-calley-means-joe-rogan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.OVE.ZrXp.3BdX70aFvkr9@MAHA_Action: Former White House adviser Calley Means says corporate and political pressure pushed Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine through the FDA after regulators raised serious concerns. Means says former FDA Commissioner Marty Makary tried to push it back for another study rather than wave it through. Shortly after, Makary was fired… “There were deaths in the trial group.”…https://x.com/MAHA_Action/status/2118791710868197405@TheChiefNerd: Calley Means Says Susie Wiles Pushed for Glyphosate Getting Liability Protection MEANS: “Susie called Bobby’s office and said, ‘We’re not discussing this’ … and it was announced the next day.” ROGAN: “How is that possible that something that’s known to give people cancer gets liability protection?” MEANS: “It’s indefensible.” https://x.com/TheChiefNerd/status/2118783684937392465@LawTimesDaily: Corruption too: Ms. Wiles’s policy interests also aligned with those benefiting her family, Mr. Means said, claiming that any corporation that hired her daughter, Katie Wiles, a lobbyist for Continental Strategy, “was getting a high priority.” “So if you’re a special interest and you want to get something done, the secret’s out,” Mr. Means said. “You pay Susie’s daughter, and it was openly discussed when they had a client.”@MAHA_Action: Calley Means reveals White House officials pushed through a glyphosate executive order under the justification of “national security” and told RFK Jr. NOT to call President Trump or challenge it. “It was the glyphosate EO that says it’s a national security issue, we need to have glyphosate, and alluded to liability protection using national defense reasons.” “And I will tell you, the Secretary of War, the major generals, they don’t see our lack of glyphosate on US farms as a national security issue.” “Nobody in military leadership sees this as a national security issue.” “So Walker put that on the table. I read it. I said, ‘This is a political disaster. We need to talk about this.’” “And he said, ‘This is final. It’s national security. It’s coming out tomorrow.’” “And he said, ‘Please inform Bobby, this is not up for discussion. And Bobby should not be calling the President or calling anyone.’” “Susie then called Bobby’s office and said, ‘We’re not discussing this.’” “I went and informed Bobby, and it was announced the next day.” https://x.com/MAHA_Action/status/2118772754711220630@AFpost: Susie Wiles-loyalist and Deputy Director of the Presidential Personnel Office (PPO), Morgan DeWitt-Snow, placed her bridesmaid, Sara Grove, in charge of staffing for the Department of War and the intelligence community, prompting complaints from numerous Pentagon officials. Insiders accuse Grove of moving “remarkably slowly” and allowing “petty personal feuds” to influence staffing decisions. DeWitt-Snow also placed her husband’s groomsman, Ryan Shrum, in charge of disaster and humanitarian relief at the State Department, a role overseeing lucrative foreign assistance contracts. Morgan DeWitt-Snow is in charge of staffing the Trump administration. Notably, she donated to Mike Pence’s 2024 presidential campaign.NBC: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., who is widely expected to become speaker in January, called for Miller to be fired, not promoted. “Stephen Miller is a dangerous xenophobe and reckless extremist who has American blood on his hands,” Jeffries wrote on X. “His presence in government should be eradicated like a malignant tumor. Fire him today.”Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said the news showed that Trump “learned nothing from his historic defeat.” “Stephen Miller is the architect of the most barbaric, inhumane policies of this administration. Trump couldn’t have made a worse choice,” he wrote on X. “Our Democratic majorities will fight him every step of the way.”… (If Chuckie and Hakeem detest Miller…)https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-stephen-miller-susie-wiles-white-house-chief-of-staff-rcna607892RFK Jr (Wiles stifled his MAHA agenda) @SecKennedy: Draining the swamp is a mandate, and we have an obligation to deliver. Entrenched interests have exercised power in Washington under both parties for decades. President Trump and I intend to keep fighting until the American people—not corporate influence—drive our health policies.I stand firmly behind President Trump and the historic reforms we are advancing together. In less than two years, this administration has rewritten federal dietary guidelines to emphasize real food, secured commitments from major food companies to remove petroleum-based synthetic dyes and other additives, launched systematic reviews of chemicals already in our food supply, and proposed requiring companies to notify the FDA before introducing ingredients they independently deem safe. These are concrete steps toward accountability that Americans demanded.We have hundreds of other accomplishments but there’s still more work to do. We must finish food-ingredient reform, advance our work on ultra-processed foods, and put children’s health at the center of federal policy… The American people deserve a government that puts their health first. President Trump gave me a mandate to put prevention at the center of health care and end the chronic disease epidemic to Make America Health Again.Trump must restore ‘smart populism’ — and rescue his presidencyThe MAGA movement, which has defined the GOP during the Trump era, forgot what populism means in practice — and requires in governance… His message was simple: An elite ruling class has sold out the country, and the MAGA movement is here to finally listen to the people. Trump largely delivered during his first term…But somewhere along the way, the MAGA movement forgot what it was. Some in and around the administration have engaged in the most brazen corruption — pardons, access, illicit cryptocurrency enrichment, real-estate side deals — Washington has seen in a century or more…There’s nothing more anti-populist than such elite self-dealing… The good news is that most of the necessary changes are easy. End the corruption. Wind down the global tariffs… Cut it out with the asinine lake-name-change gimmicks. And get working quickly to lower gas and food prices.Above all, make life easier, not harder, for ordinary Americans…https://nypost.com/2026/11/05/opinion/trump-must-restore-smart-populism-and-save-his-presidency/@MikeBenzCyber: 77% of Americans households are in debt. This fact of political physics should be stapled to the front of every GOP policy for the next 2 years so ideas like adding $600 billion to the Pentagon budget or foreign policy decisions that inflame prices get a proper stress-test.Axios: Scoop: Trump to keep fundraising, hoping to retain political musclePresident Trump has told advisers that he plans to keep raising money for his political operation — a move aimed at salvaging his clout after the GOP’s midterm debacle… would give Trump a vehicle to try to influence elections in 2028 and beyond, including the next presidential contest…https://www.axios.com/2026/11/06/scoop-trump-to-keep-fundraising-hoping-to-retain-political-muscleNational Review: By a 50-point margin, the electorate that ushered in massive Democratic majorities said the tariffs hurt their local economies more than they helped, according to a Fox News voter poll, and those who said that the tariffs hurt voted 81 percent for Democrats. Aside from driving up prices, Trump’s tariffs ravaged businesses in states that are highly dependent on trade — including Texas, Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine…https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/midterm-massacre-shows-the-drawbacks-of-unilateral-executive-actions/amp/?shem=aimgspe,St. Louis Fed: How Tariffs Are Affecting Prices in 2025While headline PCE inflation has increased only modestly in recent months, the categories of goods most exposed to international trade tell a different story. In the U.S., prices for durable goods—such as vehicles, electronics and furniture—have increased noticeably… The table shows that tariffs account for a meaningful share of recent inflation. Over the June-August 2025 period, tariffs explain roughly 0.5 percentage points of headline PCE annualized inflation and around 0.4 percentage points of core PCE annualized inflation… https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/oct/how-tariffs-are-affecting-prices-2025NY Fed: How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices?The Direct Effect: Tariffs Raise Import Prices Nearly One for One…nearly 90 percent of the 2025 tariffs were passed through to U.S. import prices…The Indirect Effect: Higher Domestic Producer Prices Tariffs also affect the prices of goods made in the U.S… many U.S. producers rely on imported parts and materials, so tariffs raise their cost of production… Second, when tariffs make imported goods more expensive, U.S. producers of competing goods face less pressure to keep their own prices down…https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/how-fast-do-tariffs-pass-through-into-consumer-prices/“Reciprocal” Tariffs and Section 232 Expansion (April–August 2025)On April 2, 2025, the administration announced what it called “reciprocal” tariffs — a universal 10% tariff on imports from nearly every country, with higher country-specific rates layered on top of that. The same executive order declared a new … The reciprocal tariffs drove the average U.S. effective tariff rate to approximately 27% by April — the highest in over a century — and triggered the April 2025 stock market selloff that preceded the 90-day pause announced on April 9. In parallel, the administration doubled Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% effective June 4, 2025, and imposed new Section 232 tariffs on copper, automobiles, auto parts, lumber, and upholstered furniture… https://greatlakescustomslaw.com/trump-tariff-timeline-report/Though numerous pundits, including Fed officials, tried to mitigate tariff inflation as ‘a one-time shock,’ it still stung Americans, notably those ‘at the margin.’ AND, even though the rate of inflation moderated, Americans are still saddled with paying higher prices. Too many pundits, especially Wall St. shills, self-servingly (want excuse for Fed largess) focus on inflation rate changes instead of cumulative inflation.A ‘one-time price shock’ infers that a spike in price is temporary. If gasoline soars from $3 to $5 and retreats to $4.69 and then fluctuates, consumers are burdened and pissed.@carney: Trump’s approval on the economy was trending down from the get go. It moved down and then stabilized after Liberation Day, even rising a bit. The launch of the war didn’t hurt much. But the fact that things dragged on that really kicked the legs out from under Trump and the GOP. (Chart)https://x.com/carney/status/2118405865032049146/photo/1Numerous pundits/people keep displaying charts showing Trump’s approval started to tumble when the Iran War began in Feb 2026. However, they do NOT overlay the timetable of Trump’s tariff initiatives (Feb 1, 2025 start), because Trump’s ratings tumble commenced in February 2025 (No honeymoon!).For eons, political consultants/pundits noted that candidates & incumbents MUST make constituents and voters believe that ‘they care about me.’ Trump won on this dynamic. But in term two… Voters in 8 states approve citizenship, ID measures for electionsProhibitions on noncitizens voting were approved handily in Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, South Dakota, and West Virginia where support nearly reached 80%. All but Alaska’s were constitutional amendments.Voter ID constitutional amendments passed Tuesday in Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio. Oklahoma voters passed a voter ID constitutional amendment in August…Arizona and California voters rejected constitutional amendments that blended noncitizen voting and voter ID… Voters also rejected a Colorado ballot measure that would have required a voter ID number for mail-in ballots. Colorado is one of eight states that hold all-mail elections…https://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2026/11/04/voters-in-8-states-approve-citizenship-id-measures-for-elections/@AlphaNews: DFL daycare owner wins Minnesota House seat despite repeated violations, report of no children seen at facility. DFL candidate Abdi Daisane defeated Republican Mike Conway in Tuesday’s election for Minnesota House District 14A, flipping a Republican-held seat.Ex-Clinton Advisor @Mark_Penn: Stop the War? Time to end the draft and bring our soldiers home from Iran where they are dying by the hundreds in trench warfare and house-to-house combat.Oh wait. We are not doing any of that. The “war” is a naval blockade to get the Iranians to give up nuclear and terrorist ambitions. At its peak we also had an air campaign directed at military and leadership targets but we stopped it in exchange for fake promises.Mostly we have been engaged in endless negotiations and memorandums of understandings while the Iranians regained their footing and kept their resolve to kill big and little Satan. The Iranians are so confident now in their success they are not negotiating at all. They killed tens of thousands of their own people to keep their iron grip. They are laughing at America that can’t take a temporary $1 increase in gasoline prices to get rid of the world’s top sponsor of terrorism and instability.The President should set out his nonnegotiable demands of no nukes, no strait, no terrorist funding, no long range ballistics, and then resume bombing if they don’t agree until they do.Democrats want to lower the cost of gasoline? Who could possibly believe that after they spent 20 years choking off the supply of domestic energy over climate change… So the current fashion is to end the war with nothing, cut off Israel, and lower the cost of gasoline. That’s a strategy? Enable nuclear and other terrorism that will ultimately swallow the region, travel to Europe and then here? Or stop it now that you can when they are weak and have alienated all the gulf states and go for real stability. That’s an actual strategy that will pay us back for decades to come. And as to affordability — suspend the gas tax, drop interest rates, suspend tariffs, provide temporary tax breaks for energy use, reform the student loan program and push for big affordable housing programs beyond the recent bill. As to “war,” finish the job while we can. And explain why to the American people. https://x.com/Mark_Penn/status/2118568455108501531@MattWalshBlog after DJT posted “you only have yourself to blame” for the equity carnage on Thursday: Trump has been talking down to the American people for his entire second term, something he never did in the first. It started with the Epstein debacle. Now that he’s losing and unpopular, he’s going to point the finger at his own citizens with no concern for what his meltdown will do to the future of the conservative movement or the Republican Party. It’s going to get worse and uglier…Trump takes action to make sure the Oval Office stays ovalProclamation would require congressional approval to protect Oval Office and Cabinet Room, Trump says… It was unclear what exactly led Trump to seek protection of the structures from Congress now. There has been no move to tear down or dramatically alter the spaces…”So if they want to say ‘let’s not have Oval anymore, let’s make it square,’ what happens is they have to go back to Congress, and hopefully the Congress… will be smart enough not to let that happen,” Trump said…https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-takes-action-make-sure-oval-office-stays-oval-2026-11-06/?taid=6aed324f6a9a85000109256eCBS’s @kathrynw5 (Trump’s schedule): Monday: Reflecting Pool ceremony; Tuesday: Blistering midterms losses; Wednesday: Ballroom construction tour; Thursday: Designate Oval a national landmark; Friday: Triumphal arch website launch@reggiebblue: 60 Minutes: Your net worth went up by $3B since you returned. My net worth did not go up. Trump: Well, you should have had stock. https://x.com/reggiebblue/status/2119475458525761855Trump’s “60 Minutes” interview did NOT go well. Besides the ‘let them eat stocks’ remark, DJT said his deportation policy was “too tough” – even though that was the only issue Midterm voters favored!!!60 Minutes Transcript: Donald Trump, the 2026 post-midterm elections interviewTrump: Israel would not exist except for Donald Trump… I didn’t lift diesel sanctions. I made it possible for Russia to give not us, but to the world– thousands and thousands of barrels of oil, of diesel, which it needed… “I had the best two years in the history of the presidency…” (on impeachment question) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-2026-post-midterm-elections-interview-60-minutes-transcript/@FoxNews: President Trump announces that the U.S. will host the biggest air show in the world within the next two years. Trump vows to make America’s show “bigger” and “grander” than the Paris Air Show. “It won’t even be close,” Trump says, explaining that the massive showcase will feature everything from commercial aviation to space exploration. https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2118861122480505056@brendanruberry: This is unbelievable: Maricopa (AZ) Dems put up a 19-year-old ASU student for the Superior Court clerk position and he won. Sebastian Matta will oversee more than 600 employees and a $65 million budget. He’s known around campus for wearing a suit to class and has a 3.25 GPA.@FoxNews: Dave Chappelle’s sick ‘joke’ about Charlie Kirk’s assassination has sparked fierce backlash. “I feel f—ed up saying this. It’s scary being a public speaker. And I mean, look, ever since that guy, Charlie Kirk, got murdered, and I shouldn’t say this publicly, but I feel better.” The remark came during a Madison Square Garden show for Chappelle’s “Karmageddon” tour…@ImtiazMadmood: 85% of the world’s refugees are Muslim. Not one of the 56 Muslim countries are taking in refugees. Even though 11 of these countries are the richest in the world. | |
-END-
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Pardons, & Who Throttled Ukraine’s Starlink
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 09:35 AM
President Trump says the Justice Department told the head of one of the big AI companies to “get ready to go to jail,” then plans to pardon “anybody that got within a thousand miles of the Oval Office” on his way out. In his first sit-down since the midterm wipeout, he also said the countries the U.S. protected will repay “any and all costs” of the Iran war and wouldn’t say who throttled Ukraine’s Starlink.
Asked by 60 Minutes’ Ross Douthat why he isn’t worried about the doom scenarios AI builders themselves describe, Trump said the risk “can be managed,” and then said by whom. “The DOJ. We had a situation where somebody was reported to us to be doing something bad with AI. We called them very strongly and said, ‘Get ready to go to jail. Please give your wife a kiss good night.'”
“I can’t tell you,” Trump said when Douthat asked who it was, adding that the message went on: “Do you like the color orange? … Go home right now, see your wife and children, give them a kiss good night.” Asked whether it was the leader of a major AI company, one of the big ones, Trump answered: “Yeah, okay. One of the big ones.” Douthat said the person “totally changed everything” and Trump replied, “Totally. Yes, sir.”
“China Has No Guardrails, By The Way”
Trump said he is “an AI bull” because Xi Jinping, who “left here two weeks ago,” is “all-in” on what Trump calls “SI,” for super intelligence. “If we don’t have it, China’s going to have it. That would put us at an unbelievable disadvantage,” he said, putting China “one year behind us, which is amazing.” Asked why he isn’t spooked, he said: “So we’re racing China, and that makes it worth the risk.” Douthat followed up: “Or you just think the risk is not real?” Trump: “I think that the risk is not nearly as real as … they talk.”
On guardrails he said he doesn’t mind them on AI safety but “I don’t want to put us in a deep second position,” and offered that “China has no guardrails, by the way.” Douthat pointed out that China has the guardrail of a totalitarian state, where “whatever Xi says goes.” Trump: “With me, it’s pretty strong, but it’s not quite that strong.” He said “very brilliant people” are watching every one of the companies.
Data centers, he said, are being made to bring their own power. “Every one of those centers that goes up now under me is building their own electric,” he said, and “they’re giving the excess electric right now, they’re giving it into the old grid that we had,” which he called “old, broken.”
Douthat read back Elon Musk’s pitch that AI ends in a “universal high income” where nobody has to work, and asked whether that sounds like a good future to a man who likes to work. “No,” Trump said, reading Musk’s point as being about data centers that communities like West Virginia “love,” and about not losing “a cash cow” to places like Finland.
“Anybody That Got Within A Thousand Miles Of The Oval Office”
Towards the end of the interview, Douthat asked whether Trump expects to issue a lot of pardons when he leaves office. “Yes, I do,” Trump said. Does he expect to pardon himself? “I don’t,” he said. Does he have the power to? “I do.”
“I intend to issue tremendous numbers of pardons. In fact, I say oftentimes, anybody that got within a thousand miles of the Oval Office, because I don’t want people spending the rest of their lives…” he said, describing what he went through “defending myself by radical left lunatics.” As we noted before the election, he had already floated preemptive pardons if Democrats took Congress.
Douthat joked that he and the 60 Minutes crew were pretty close to the Oval Office and asked whether Trump would pardon him. “I think I might have to after this interview,” Trump said. He defended his pardons of the January 6 defendants: “I don’t think any group’s been treated more unfairly than them,” he said, and “to this day, when they see me, they cry.” Pressed on those who attacked police officers, he said, “There were some that got rough, but, you know, they were rough to them, too.”
“I Can’t Tell You Who Turned It Down”
Douthat asked who is in charge of Starlink, the satellite system Elon Musk owns, after a recent slowdown that made it harder for Ukrainians to use it: Trump or Musk? “It wasn’t me, I don’t know,” Trump said, and added that “I have a lot of power over everything.”
Did Musk turn it down? “I don’t think he literally turned a dial. I can’t tell you who turned it down. I can tell you ultimately he turned it back up, and so they have it.” Pressed on why he can’t say who did it, Trump said “it hasn’t been proven to me that it was turned down,” and that “there’s a lot of lies going on with that war, but I know this: that when I heard about it, it went back up.”
On the war itself, Trump said a “very important” meeting would run from Saturday “to Sunday and to Monday into Tuesday,” and that “I believe that that war is going to end, and it’s going to end soon. And the only reason it’s going to end is because of me.” He blamed the “tremendous hatred between President Putin and President Zelenskyy,” and said that at their first meeting “there was great disrespect shown to Russia.” Asked whom he trusts more, he said, “I’d rather not say, but I get along with both.”
Douthat said Trump had lifted diesel sanctions on Russia. “I didn’t lift diesel sanctions,” Trump answered. “I made it possible for Russia to give, not us, but to the world … thousands and thousands of barrels of … diesel oil, which it needed.” Pushed on Europe now supplying Ukraine’s weapons, he said Europe is buying them from the U.S. “at full price,” against the “$350 billion worth of cash and weapons” Biden gave, and said he gave Ukraine “nothing.”
“Pay Us Back Any And All Costs”
On Iran, Douthat asked how a deal gets the Strait of Hormuz open and the U.S. military out. Trump said the Strait is already open, with tankers “babysat by a large US military presence,” and the military can simply stay. “End of this whole thing, those countries that we’ve protected are going to pay us back any and all costs that we’ve had for the war. We’re going to get all that money back, and I’ve told them, and they’re going to do it 100%, because without us, they wouldn’t exist.”
He also took a victory lap on Venezuela. Reading from a note he had written that morning, Trump said 18 Americans had died in seven or eight months across Iran and Venezuela, compared with thousands in Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam and Korea. “Venezuela, where by the way, we’ve taken out 50 times what the war has cost already. To the victor belong the spoils!” he said. Earlier he had called it “a territory, you could call it whatever you want” and said “we won that war in less than one hour.”
Asked whether he agrees with JD Vance that the Iran war cost Republicans the election, as we reported last week, Trump said “I don’t disagree with it,” and that he told Vance to “write what you feel.” Would he do it again? “My answer is an emphatic yes, because you can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.” He said Iran wanted a deal just before the election, “and that gives them a little bit of a hope certificate now.”
He said he isn’t looking to escalate, because Iran’s material is “buried under thousands of tons of rock” and watched through Space Force lenses. “If we needed to do Pickaxe, which we don’t at this moment, we would have that done in one hour.” Asked whether he expects to fire anyone after the midterms, Trump said, “Yeah, I do. Little bit, little bit,” with “maybe a few changes” he wouldn’t name. He said he has confidence in Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
“I Don’t Know, But That’s True”
Douthat put it to Trump that his family’s crypto company, World Liberty Financial, is partly owned by investors connected to the United Arab Emirates’ government, and asked if Trump is a co-owner. “That’s correct, right,” Trump said. Told that foreign investors who want things from his government may think they are buying influence, Trump said: “I don’t know, but that’s true. Look, every president has a problem.”
He said “I know nothing about it” and asked “how do you divest from cash?” His own money, he said, is with Wall Street’s biggest firms, and trades in stocks like Nvidia are “all computer-generated”: “I have no idea what the hell they’re buying.” On his sons’ business he said, “It’s hard to say to them, ‘Don’t do anything anymore for four years because I’m president.'”
“A Great Dislike, Incredibly, For Israel”
Asked for his own read on the midterms, Trump said he “was not on the ballot” and gave the primary reasons: voters “didn’t like the war,” gas prices that went from a low of “$1.85” to “$3.50, $4,” and “a great dislike, incredibly, for Israel. There seems to be a dislike for Israel.”
He also put a price tag on the loss. “We lost yesterday because of the election – $3 trillion, the market lost almost 2,000 points because of the Democrats,” Trump said, after the market had picked up “$25 trillion” before the vote. The world looked at “what happened in France” and “Italy” and said “this is the same ideology,” he said. The numbers are “historically good,” he said, and the problem was “bad messaging.”
“I’m Going To Find Out About It Right After This Interview”
Douthat asked about the UFO footage the administration has released and whether anything he has been told suggests more. Trump said Air Force pilots told him in the Oval Office that “they’re flying an F-22 … and something goes by them at three times their speed, and it’s round. It’s not aerodynamic, it’s round.” Then: “Well, maybe it was a comet. So that’s the mystery.”
Asked about whistleblowers who say there is a secret program that even presidents don’t know about, Trump said, “I haven’t heard that, but if there is, I’m going to find out about it right after this interview.” He added: “I would like to find out whether or not it’s true. I will tell you, you have a lot of very solid people that believe it’s true.”
“I Do Hate Some Of My Enemies, And I Always Will”
Trump said, asked about mortality, that he is “a religious person, so in theory I go to heaven” and “I hope so. I don’t want to go to hell.” Douthat then recalled Trump’s remark at Charlie Kirk’s memorial service that “I hate my opponents and I don’t want the best for them,” and asked whether Trump could forgive James Comey and Nancy Pelosi to enter paradise. “The answer is no,” Trump said. “I probably cannot do that, no, because I do hate some of my enemies, and I always will.”
Asked for the one line his presidency will be remembered by, Trump said, “That I made America great again.”
Discuss… (this should be good)
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING MARTIN ARMSTRONG
It’s Going to be Total Chaos – Martin Armstrong
By Greg Hunter On November 7, 2026 In Market Analysis, Political Analysis35 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong with his famous “Socrates” program accurately predicted what would happen in the midterm elections last Tuesday with the so-called “Blue Wave.” Apparently, this accurate prediction took into account what appears to be massive Democrat voter fraud. Nationally, it is reported, some “20 million new voter registrations without proof of citizenship led to 20 million new Democrat voters.” For example, Texas turned completely blue after nearly “three million voters were added to the rolls without proof of citizenship.” Armstrong says, “Socrates is looking at everything. It showed Texas would flip blue, but Florida would stay red. . .. Even on the national level, it showed we were looking at a blue tsunami. It is also showing that was necessary for its forecast going into 2032. . .. The Democrats are in a long-term bear market, despite all the hoopla and everything else. Socrates shows they will not win in 2028. I have said in my last three conferences that the Democrat party will split. You have even seen James Carville say he’s no longer a Democrat (and wants to leave the party).
Armstrong contends what he is seeing is lots of upheaval coming from a variety of sources. Could some of this upheaval come from the Trump Administration unwinding the voter fraud? Could it be from Democrats committing lawfare against Trump and his allies? Could it be from funding more war in Ukraine against Russia, or all of the above. Armstrong says, “Socrates was looking at trends, and, basically, it was time to flip. Then you look at what is going to come, and it’s going to be total chaos. . .. You are going to be looking at investigations and all sorts of things. What the computer is projecting is this chaos for the next two years. We are going into a stagflation and a recession where the economic growth will now decline. Inflation is going to go up. Democrats who voted this way are going to find out it does not matter who the heck you put in. Washington is Washinton. Going into 2028, you are going to see a rise in third party activity. People are just fed up with Republicans and Democrats.”
Meanwhile, Armstrong brings up the latest “Blue Wave” that is, historically, not that big. Armstrong says, “Although Democrats are cheering big time, Obama lost 9 Senate seats in the midterms. Then, look at Truman, and he lost 12 Senate seats. This is a minimal one. The news makes it sound like a big tsunami and this is it. This is the end of the Republican Party. Sorry, it’s not going to work that way.”
On the chaos coming from war, look no further than the Democrats to fan the fires of conflict and killing. Armstrong says, “The Democrats are anti Russia. They are going to fund Zelensky in Ukraine. He immediately started attacking refineries (in Russia). So, there is no way we are looking at a peaceful resolution. . .. There is no chance in hell. . .. They are going to be promoting war with Russia. So, this gets to be much more serious geopolitically. This is why the DOW has been making new highs when everybody said it was going to crash. The big capital is coming into the US, and it goes to the DOW.”
Armstrong also contends that oil prices will remain high, and gold and silver will be heading up in price shortly after the new year.
There is much more in the 61-minute interview.
There is an 8-minute video to explain how easy it is to ride out any terror attack or extreme storm. You can get more information on Sat phones and backup battery power at Sat123.com. You can get all the information on Starlink “Mini” here. You can get all the new Faraday bags and clothing at DarkBags.com. You can also call 855-980-5830 and talk to a real human. Same goes for EscapeZone.com where you can get Faraday bags big and small, and the newest Faraday clothing. You can also talk to a real human at EscapeZone.com by calling 702-825-0005.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with Martin Armstrong to talk about Dems in 2028, inflation, gold, war and the chaos of the 2026 Midterm Elections for 11.07.26.
After the Interview:
There is free information, analysis and articles on ArmstrongEconomics.com.
There are also current cutting-edge, in-depth reports you can buy on a wide variety of subjects by clicking here.
And don’t forget the World Economic Conference that Armstrong puts on every year in Orlando, FL, December 4, 5 and 6. Tickets are on sale now, but in person is selling out fast. There is also streaming available. Click here for all the conference info.
