MAY 4//GOLD UP A TINY $.70 TO $1868.80 A T COMEX CLOSING//SILVER DOWN ANOTHR 27 CENTS TO $22.38//GOLD STANDING FOR MAY RISES BY A HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 41,100 OZ: NEW STANDING 7.4650 TONNES//SILVER DOES THE OPPOSITE: A HUGE EFP JUMP OF 75,000 AS NO SILVER IS OVER HERE: NEW STANDING 28.430 MILLION OZ//GOLD IN ACCESS MARKET RISES TO $1884.00//SILVER RISES TO $23.01CRACK SPREAD ON OIL DISTILLATES SCREAM HIGHER WITH DIESEL FUEL NEAR THE BREAKING POINT//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE VS THE WEST UPDATES//TRADE DEFICIT WITH THE USA RISES BY A HUGE PERCENTAGE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

May 4, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

May 4, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1868.80 up $0.70

SILVER: $22.38 down $0.23

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1884.30

SILVER: $23.01

Bitcoin morning price:  $39040 UP 707

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $39.848 UP 1515

Platinum price: closing UP $53.10 to $991.05

Palladium price; closing UP $36.40  at $2247.10

END

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comex notices: 26/33

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,868.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/03/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 05/05/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN 30 26
709 C BARCLAYS 2


TOTAL: 33 33
MONTH TO DATE: 1,483


TOTAL: 8 8
MONTH TO DATE: 1,450



NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT 33  NOTICE(S) FOR 3300 OZ  (0.1026  TONNES)

total notices so far:  1483 contracts for 148,300. oz (4.617 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

69 NOTICE(S) FILED 345,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  2828  :  for 14,140,000  oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $0.70

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://A DEPOSIT OF .851 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 576.900 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED  516 CONTRACTS TO 137,692   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  $0.04 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.04) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT SOME SILVER LONGS  AS  WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 1086 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 30.170 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 75,000 OZ EFP JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 28.430 MILLION OZ/ //  V)    FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : + 31

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 3 days, total 4191,  contracts:  20.955 million oz  OR 6.966 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1397CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 20.955 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 20.955 MILLION OZ//

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 516 WITH OUR  $0.04 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY., TODAY.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 570 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY. OF 30.170 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 75,000  OZ EFP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 28.430 MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1055 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.275 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 69  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  345,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 275 CONTRACTS  TO 560,441 AND CLOSER TO NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  –300 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.05//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY /.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 5.353 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY”S QUEUE JUMP OF 41,100 OZ//NEW STANDING 7,4650 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $6,05 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2327  OI CONTRACTS (7.26 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  2327 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 560,441.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2327, WITH 275 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2062 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2637 CONTRACTS OR 8.202 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2062) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (275,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  2327 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY. AT 5.353 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 41,100 OZ//NEW STANDING 7.4650 ///  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX  OI. GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

8623 CONTRACTS OR 862300 OR 26.82  TONNES 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2974 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 26.82 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  26.82/3550 x 100% TONNES  0.760% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  26.82 TONNES INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 516 CONTRACT OI TO 137,692 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 570 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 570  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 516 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 570 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1086 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE STRONG GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.430 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY  GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.04 IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

.

end

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 232.37 OR 1.10%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 29.37 OR .11%         //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.30%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed     /Oil UP TO 103.36 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 106.79 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL READ       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6064 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6587: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER/

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 275 CONTRACTS TO 560,441  AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $6.05 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2844 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE   ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2062 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 JUNE :2062 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2062 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED  TOTAL OF 2327 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2062 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A TINY SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 275  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $6.05

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY   (7.4650),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 7.465 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $6.05) AND  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING QUITE ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE  REGISTERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN  OF 13.188 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (7.465 TONNES)

WE HAD 300 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2327 CONTRACTS OR 232,700 OZ OR 7.26TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 71,634/// extremely poor

Confirmed volume yesterday:199,788 contracts  poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAY ’22 COMEX GOLD //MAY 4

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz2,314.873 oz
Int. Delaware
Brinks
72 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today33  notice(s)3300 OZ
0.1026 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)917 contracts 91,700 oz
2.8522 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month1483 notices148,300 OZ
4.6127 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz


For today:

dealer deposits  0

total dealer deposit  nil   oz//

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits

2 customer withdrawals:

i) out of Brinks 289.360 oz 9 kilobar

ii) Int Delaware:  2025.513 oz 63 kilobars

total withdrawal:  2314.873 oz

ADJUSTMENTS:   1 dealer to customer

ii) Manfra: 9038.186 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.

For the front month of MAY we have an  oi of 950 contracts having GAINED 403 contracts

We had 8 notices filed on Monday, so we gained 411 contracts or  41,100 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of May.

June saw a loss of 12,797 contracts down to 424,933  contracts

July has a gain of 117 OI to stand at 124

August has a gain of 11,647 contracts up to 83,401 contracts

We had 33 notice(s) filed today for  3300 oz FOR THE MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  30 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 33 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and   26 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1483) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAY 950  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  33 x 100 oz per contract equals 240,000 OZ  OR 7.4650 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of APRIL. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (1483) x 100 oz+   (950)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (33} x 100 oz} which equals 240,000 oz standing OR 7.4650 TONNES in this NON   active delivery month of MAY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  7.4650 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A MAY ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

263,958.054, oz  JPM No 2  7.58 TONNES

1,063,208.634 oz pledged  Brinks/27,96 TONNES

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

Loomis: 32,840.423 oz

total pledged gold:  1,941,626,135 oz                             (1115,92 TONNES)

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  35,969.513.602 OZ (1118.80 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 18,238,460.914  OZ (567.29 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,731,052.688 OZ  (548.39 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,789,426.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  491.11tonnes

END

MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MAY 4

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,905,908.760  oz
Brinks
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory579,586.700 oz
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)69CONTRACT(S)
345,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)2858 contracts 
(14,290,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2828 contracts 14,140,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposit into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

ii) Into JPMorgan: 579,586,700 oz

total deposit:  579,586.700    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 174.237 million oz/332.017 million =52.40% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 4

i) Out of Brinks 590,458.050 oz

ii) Out of CNT;  699,466.610 oz

iii) Out of Delaware 2927.000 oz

iv) Out of JPMorgan  613,057.100 oz

total withdrawal 1,905,908.760    oz

0 adjustments:   

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.620 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 332.057 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI: 2927 HAVING LOST 1022 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 1007 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY

SO WE  LOST 15  CONTRACTS THAT WE EFP’D TO LONDON  (75,000 OZ) AS SILVER IS SCARCE OVER HERE.

JUNE HAD A LOSS OF 58 TO STAND AT 1794

JULY HAD A GAIN OF 1233 CONTRACTS UP TO 112,184 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 69 for 5,035,000 oz

Comex volumes: 19,204// est. volume today//   extremely poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 46,540 contracts (  poor )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2828 x 5,000 oz = 14,140,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (2927) and the number of notices served upon today 69 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAY./2021 contract month: 2828 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (2927)  – number of notices served upon today (69) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates 28,430,000 oz. .

We lost 15 contracts or 75,000 will not stand for delivery at the comex as these guys were EFP’d to London

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 \TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.20: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1094.55 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD UP $20.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095,72 TONNES

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.77 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095.72 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.49 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.60//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.23 TONNES

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES 

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT IF 6.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.36 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $11.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.44 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A  DEPOSIT OF 11.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.42 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $26.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 //A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1090.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $7.70: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1088.75 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.98 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $.70//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

APRIL 1///WITH GOLD DOWN $19.00 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD FROM MONDAY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES FROM THE GLD:INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.44

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 24/WITH GOLD UP $24.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.66 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $15.75//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSITED INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1089.04 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .851 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.900 MILLION OZ

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.877 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 554,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.171 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29//WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.308 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.385 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.033 MILLION OZ

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS : STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 3.508 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.449 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.955 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .461 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY…//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.986 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.447 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS : A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.676 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 831,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS :NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.386 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESETS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 6.326 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 564.966 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.302 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 558.647 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.171 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.345 MILLION OZ

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.847 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 554.167 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.092 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 576.900 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Schiff: GDP Spin Is Orwellian Doublespeak

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Despite all the talk about a “strong economy,” nobody was expecting a blistering hot GDP for the first quarter. The consensus was for around a 1% gain. As it turned out, it was even worse than expected. GDP shrank in Q1, contracting by 1.4%.

Despite the awful number, the mainstream spun it as a positive. Peter Schiff called it an outrageous positive spin on negative GDP and a great example of Orwellian doublespeak.

New York Times headline proclaimed, “GDP Report Shows US Economy Shrank, Masking a Broader Recovery

Basically, the NYT and others in the mainstream media are claiming the economy is really strong. You just can’t see that strength because it’s hidden behind this weak economy. Peter wondered out loud what in the hell they are talking about.

The first point to consider is that of negative GDP in one quarter means we’re halfway to a recession. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP.

Jerome Powell and the other central bankers at the Federal Reserve have hung their hats on the fact that the US has a super-strong economy. They claim the economy is strong enough to handle rate hikes and quantitative tightening without spinning into a deep recession. Peter asks the operative question.

If the economy is so strong, why is it contracting? How is a -1.4% GDP a strong economy?”

Peter said he can’t remember a time when the Fed hiked rates after a negative GDP quarter. Normally, a quarter like Q1 would have the Fed considering rate cuts in order to preemptively prevent a recession.

If we already have one negative quarter, and that’s with interest rates at 25 basis points, if the Fed really ratchets up interest rates in Q2, well, doesn’t it stand to reason that GDP in the second quarter will be even lower than GDP in the first quarter when the economy is going to have to contend with much higher interest rates? Of course! So, you would have to say the odds favor a recession.”

Normally when the Fed starts hiking rates, the economy is strong. You’re getting big GDP prints. When the economy is hot, the central bank typically tries to cool it off in order to head off inflation before it gets started.

Well, we don’t have a blazing hot economy. We really have an ice-cold economy. Just look at the GDP. Yet the Fed is just starting to raise rates anyway because we have inflation — not in a strong economy. We have inflation in a weak economy. We have stagflation.

Peter said the Fed’s credibility is in a very precarious position. It’s pretty much ignoring this negative GDP print, claiming the economy is still strong.

What happens when we end up in a recession? What happens to the Fed’s credibility? Because, after all, they’ve got everything wrong. First, they said there’s no inflation. Then they said inflation is transitory. Then they admit they got that wrong. And now they see this negative GDP number, and basically, they say that’s transitory too.”

If Powell and Company were honest, they would say, “We’re going to hike rates to fight inflation and that’s going to cause a recession.” But they don’t want to admit that. They want to have it both ways. They want everybody to think they can put out the inflation fire without starting a fire in the economy.

One of the factors pulling GDP down was the massive trade deficit. The March trade deficit in goods came in way above expectations and shattered the old record. And yet the dollar remains strong. Normally, a massive trade deficit would result in the dollar getting punished. But the US enjoys the privilege of issuing the world reserve currency. America imports goods and exports dollars.

Dollars are America’s greatest export. Except they’re worthless. We just print them. We create them out of thin air. They have no value. The stuff that we’re getting has real value. You need factories, machines, workers, land — all sorts of materials go into the production of finished goods that Americans are importing. And what are we giving our trading partners? Digits that we create out of thin air. Why do they do that? Beats the hell out of me. What is the world doing with all these dollars? What are they going to do with $125.3 billion they just earned?”

The more dollars the world has, the less they are worth. At some point, it has to collapse. At this point, the dollar is benefitting from being the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry. There are problems in Japan and Europe. At some point, this bubble will pop.

But the mainstream spins big trade deficits as a sign of a strong economy. They reason that the voracious appetite for imports shows Americans have plenty of money to spend. Peter called this nonsense.

Strong economies produce stuff. They don’t simply consume stuff. If we really had a strong economy, we wouldn’t just be buying stuff. We would be making the stuff we’re buying. In fact, we would be making so much stuff that we’d have extra, and we’d be able to sell it to other people whose economies aren’t strong enough to make what we could make, and we would have a trade surplus.”

Peter called this “George Orwell doublespeak.”

This is everybody trying to convince the public that something bad is actually good.”

And that brings us back to the GDP report.

The mainstream spin is the economy is strong except for the pesky trade deficit. Trade deficits subtract from GDP. A record trade deficit means a record subtraction from GDP. But in the mainstream view, Americans are spending, spending, spending, and this signals economic strength. But Peter said you can’t just pretend that the trade deficit doesn’t exist. GDP measures the output of the domestic economy. That’s what the D stands for.

If you’re buying stuff that was made abroad, well, you’re not measuring the domestic economy. You’re measuring the foreign economy. We’re not supposed to be picking up the Japanese economy, or the Chinese economy, or the Korean economy, or any of these other economies. We’re focusing on the US economy. So, if we have a trade deficit, we have to minus that out.”

Ignoring the trade deficit destroys the whole concept of GDP.

You can’t take out the trade deficit and say, ‘This is a great economy. We have a broad-based recovery.’ We have a bubble. That’s what the trade deficit is showing. This isn’t real economic strength. This is a massive bubble. And when Powell is saying we have this great economy so we can raise rates, we have a lousy economy. The trade deficit proves it.”

END

2.LAWRIE WILLIAMS//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS/

-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Craig Hemke on tomorrow’s Fed announcement of a 50% basis point rise in interest rates

(CraigHemke)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Fed perception vs. Fed reality

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-05-03 20:46Section: Daily Dispatches

By Craig Hemke
TF Metals Report
via Sprott Money, Toronto
Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Wednesday brings the long-awaited conclusion of the May Federal Open Market Committee meeting. How will the statement read? 

More importantly, how will Chief Goon Powell respond in his “press conference”? 

But perhaps most important of all, does it even matter?

The fun and games begin with the 2 p.m.ET release of the FOMC “fed lines.” After that’s parsed and digested, Chief Goon Powell will appear via Zoom at 2:30 p.m. and pretend to host an unscripted “press conference.” 

What he says and how he says it will drive bonds, for exchange, the S&P, and the precious metals through the remainder of the week and the balance of the month.

Let’s begin with perception. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Fed-Perception-vs-Fed-Reality-Craig-Hemke-May-3-2022

end

A 3% tax on using the uSA dollar on purchases is pushing Venezuelans back into bolivars

(Blomberg)

Maduro’s 3% dollar tax pushes Venezuelans back into bolivars

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-05-03 20:52Section: Daily Dispatches

By Nicolle Yapur
Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Tuesday, May 3, 2022

For years, the bolivar drifted toward irrelevancy as Venezuelans embraced the economic stability brought on by the widespread use of the U.S. dollar.

But the socialist regime, always reluctant to fully turn its economy over to the dollar, is now making a surprise bid to revive the local currency. 

Emboldened by surging oil exports that are fueling economic growth and helping keep the foreign-exchange rate steady, the government is pushing Venezuelans to use the bolivar more by slapping a 3% tax on purchases made with dollars in shops, restaurants, and grocery stores.

One study done by a private firm indicates there was a slight shift away from the dollar in the days after the tax took effect. A separate report released today found the use of bolivars in Caracas rose sharply in April, the first full month after its introduction. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.yahoo.com/now/venezuela-reins-dollarization-risky-bid-120000945.html

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

Russia is returning to the gold standard and China will follow

(QTR Fringe Finance)

Russia Is Returning To The Gold Standard: Is China Next?

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 07:25 PM

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

No sooner was it that I wrote an article talking about how Russia was going to back the ruble with gold than “one of the Russia’s most powerful security/intelligence officers and a close ally of Putin” has admitted the country’s intentions to do just that.

And I’m predicting that no sooner will the gravity of this decision finally sink in with the West that China will follow closely in Russia’s footsteps and do the same.

Russia backing its currency with gold represents one of the most drastic changes to the foreign currency market in decades. As of 2022, precisely zero countries still adhere to a gold standard, though many countries still hold gold in reserve.

The new global monetary system is likely going to look like Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia and other countries with commodity-backed, sound money on one side – and the west and our allies, with our “infinite” fiat, under the tutelage of rocket surgeon Neel Kashkari, on the other.

Despite the enormity of the situation, the news hasn’t really been digested by global markets yet. The FX market has been relatively calm, but for the ruble strengthening, and gold prices have crashed so far this week, with front month futures falling nearly $50/oz. on Monday, back down to about $1,860/oz.

Image

Ruble vs. Euro chart from Zero Hedge


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Aside from the FX market, the news also hasn’t been digested by US politicians or financial “thought leaders” yet.

However, there are underground rumblings starting to catch the ears of those who are actively listening. Ronan Manly wrote for BullionStar.com last week:

On Tuesday 26 April in an interview with newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta (RG), the Secretary of the Russian Federation’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, said that Russian experts are working on a project to back the Russian ruble with gold and other commodities.

Manly was kind enough to translate the interview with RG, which stated Russia’s intentions to back the ruble with gold in crystal clear fashion:

RG Question: And what do we need to do to ensure the ruble’s sovereignty?

Nikolai Patrushev: “For any national financial system to be sovereignized, its means of payment must have intrinsic value and price stabilitywithout being pegged to the dollar.

Now experts are working on a project proposed by the scientific community to create a two-circuit monetary and financial system.

In particular, it is proposed to determine the value of the rublewhich should be backed by both gold and a group of goods that are currency values, and to put the ruble exchange rate in line with the real purchasing power parity.”

Manly concludes, matter-of-factly:

So there you have it. The Russian Government is actively working on creating a gold and commodity backed Russian ruble with intrinsic value which is outside the orbit of the US dollar. 

What we are seeing now is Nikolai Patrushev and the Kremlin confirming this simple equation of linking the Russian ruble to gold and commodities. In other words, the beginning of a multilateral gold and commodity backed monetary system, i.e. Bretton Woods III.  

Just days ago I published an in-depth analysis by my friend Lawrence Lepard, about what Bretton Woods III might look like. For anyone concerned about the future of the monetary system, it is a must-read: Putin Knows The Monetary System Is A Credit Based Ponzi Scheme: Lawrence Lepard

Finally, to take Manly’s analysis one step further, I think China isn’t going to be far behind Russia in adopting a gold standard.

How much can — and will — China help Russia as its economy crumbles?

Going back to last summer, before the invasion of Ukraine happened and before inflation was an issue, I wrote an article arguing that it was the most common sense scenario for China to affix its new digital currency to gold.

That was before Russia decided they were ready to take a stand against the west’s monetary policies and before China became interested in buying distressed strategic oil assets from Russia while the rest of the globe tries to shut the country down economically.

Now, Russia and China are closer than they’ve ever been and arguably more unified in their interests of keeping the U.S., the west and NATO in check than they’ve ever been.

China has also kept one eye on Taiwan, as I noted in an article last month exploring whether or not President Xi is actively entertaining the idea of catalyzing World War III. For now, those concerns have taken a back seat to the country’s bizarre recent reaction to a Covid “outbreak” that it is fruitlessly trying to control.

Meanwhile, as Russia accepts payment for oil only in rubles or gold, “the digital yuan has already been piloted in various Chinese cities and was used in more than $8 billion worth of transactions in the second half of 2021,” CNN reported earlier this year. In other words, the rubber is starting to hit the road for China’s digital currency.

And, with everyone locked in their homes once again, it’s extremely convenient timing.

Is the picture becoming clear yet, or do I need to spell it out for you?

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //DIESEL

This is not good:  the crack spread which are the distillates from oil are rising and becoming much more valuable than oi itself

(zerohedge)

D-Day Approaches: Crack Spread Soars As Diesel Market Braces For Historic Shock

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 05:05 PM

While the market’s attention – and certainly that of the administration – has been focused on the surge in gas prices due to their vast political implications, the real action – and threat – is in diesel, as discussed extensively and most recently in “Why Every American Should Care That Diesel Prices Are Surging Across The Country“, and also in the following articles from the past 3 months.

Well, with every passing day, D (for Diesel)-Day approaches, and as Bloomberg’s Natalia Kniazhevich observes today, the crack spread – or profit margins from products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel – reached the highest since the freak oil collapse of April 2020, confirming what we have been saying since January, namely that shortages in fuels like gasoline and diesel are greater than in crude oil.

Echoing what we have discussed on numerous occasions, the spread indicates that demand for refined products, mostly diesel, is so strong that refiners have only limited spare capacity to meet it.

There is a glimmer of hope: during the pandemic, lots of refinery units were shut down and there were few new additions to the market. Now that U.S. refiners have been steadily coming out of maintenance, as they begin ramping up for high-demand summer season, the tightness in the refined-product market may ease.

Of course, if demand destruction in diesel does not materialize soon, and remains at current high levels just as summer gasoline demand spikes, then all bets are off

end

US East Coast Diesel Stockpiles Hit Record Low As Fuel Crisis Nears 

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 12:31 PM

We noted Tuesday evening, D (for Diesel)-Day quickly approaches, though it might already be here as U.S. East Coast distillate inventories plunge to a record low, according to new government data. 

Weekly petroleum data from Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories show East Coast distillate inventories are at their lowest ever, dropping to just 22.4 million barrels. 

Total U.S. distillate inventories have sunk to levels not seen since the last financial crisis. 

One of the reasons for the drop is East Coast refinery capacity has plunged over the last decade, “leaving the region vulnerable to squeezes,” according to Bloomberg’s Javier Blas.

In the past 15 years, the number of refineries on the U.S. East coast has halved to just seven. The closures have reduced the region’s oil processing capacity to just 818,000 barrels per day, down from 1.64 million barrels per day in 2009. -Blas

Total U.S. refinery utilization capacity has plunged from 96% in February to 86% at the end of April. Also, the U.S. has halted energy imports from Russia. 

There’s also the issue Gulf Coast refiners’ are prioritizing exports to Europe rather than increasing domestic supply, sending the price of diesel to a record high. 

Diesel is used in trucks, tractors, freight trains, and power generation. Soaring prices will only exacerbate inflationary pressures. 

Blas said: “The diesel shortfall is nearing crisis levels.” 

Reality is starting to sink in about the worst inflation in four decades. Truckers have told the Dirty Jobs jobs guy Mike Rowe that it now costs $1,000 to fill up their fuel tanks

Rowe said truckers aren’t buying the Biden administration’s narrative that Russia is responsible for soaring fuel prices. 

With the U.S.’ busy travel season less than a month away and diesel inventories on the East Coast at record lows with refinery capacity in the region struggling, this could only suggest a fuel crisis could be nearing. 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL//DIAMONDS

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.6085

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.6587

HANG SANG CLOSED  DOWN 230.37 OR 1.10%

2. Nikkei closed  DOWN 29.37 PTS OR .11%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  103.41/Euro RISES TO 1.0527

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.224/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 129,93/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -SHORE CLOSED DOWN//  OFF- SHORE  UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.941%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 2.85% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.00%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.91: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.31

3j Gold at $1869.00 silver at: 22.681  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  3      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 69.00

3m oil into the 106 dollar handle for WTI and  109 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 129.93 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9803– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0320well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.936 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.995 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.81

Futures Rise Ahead Of Biggest Fed Rate Hike Since The Dot Com Bubble Burst

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 07:50 AM

May the 4th is here, and US futures are up slightly ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting in which the Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 50bps, the biggest hike since the dot com bubble burst in May 2000, and to release plans for balance-sheet normalization; Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference will provide guidance on potential for bigger rate hikes at subsequent meetings and policy makers’ assessment of the neutral rate. As DB’s Jim Reid puts it, “if you’re under 43, did 3 years at university and then joined financial markets then you won’t have worked in an era of 50bps Fed rate hikes. This will very likely change tonight as the Fed are a near certainty to raise rates by 50bps. In fact it’ll be the first time the Fed have hiked at consecutive meetings since 2006. So we enter a new era that won’t be familiar to many.”

In any case, investors have already priced in the Fed’s largest hike since 2000 – in fact, OIS contracts currently price in around 160bp of additional hikes over the next three policy meetings –  and they will scrutinize Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for clues on the pace of future rate increases and balance-sheet reduction. Some traders are betting on an even larger 75 basis-point hike in June. As such, even though global financial conditions are already the tightest they have ever been (according to Goldman), S&P and Nasdaq futures are both up 0.5%, while 10-year yields drifts lower, having stalled again near 3% at the European open.

“Powell’s words about how aggressively the Fed will tame inflation are likely to shape market sentiment for the next couple of weeks at least,” said technical analyst Pierre Veyret at ActivTrades in London. Lyft tumbled 26% in premarket trading after the ride-hailing company’s second-quarter outlook disappointed Wall Street.

Global bonds have slumped under a wave of monetary tightening, with German 10-year yields around 1% and the U.K.’s near 2%, while US 10Y yields are circling 3%. Adding to the tightening outlook, European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel said it’s time for policy makers to take action to tame inflation, and that an interest-rate hike might come as early as July. Meanwhile, Iceland’s central bank delivered its biggest hike since the 2008 financial crisis and India’s raised its key interest rate in a surprise move Wednesday.

“There is a difficult set up in general for risk assets” as valuations remain stretched despite a drop in equities, Kathryn Koch, chief investment officer for public markets equity at Goldman Sachs & Co., said on Bloomberg Television. She added that “some people think stagflation is a real risk.”

In premarket trading, Didi Global was 6% lower and Chinese technology shares slumped as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the ride-hailing giant’s chaotic 2021 debut in New York.  Advanced Micro Devices jumped 5.7% in premarket trading after the chipmaker gave a strong sales forecast for the current quarter. Starbucks gained 6.6% after the coffee chain reported higher-than-expected U.S. sales, outweighing the negative impact of high inflation and Chinese lockdowns. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:

  • Lyft (LYFT) shares slump 27% premarket after the ride-hailing company’s second-quarter outlook disappointed Wall Street, highlighting investors’ willingness to dump growth stocks at the first hint of trouble
  • Uber (UBER) slipped as Lyft’s results hit the more diversified peer. Uber said it rescheduled the release of its 1Q financial results and its quarterly conference to Wednesday morning from the afternoon, after rival Lyft gave a weaker-than-expected outlook
  • Airbnb (ABNB) jumps 4.5% premarket after its second-quarter revenue forecast beat estimates, with the company seeing “substantial demand” after more than two years of Covid-19 restrictions
  • Livent (LHTM) shares surge 23% premarket, with KeyBanc highlighting an increase in the lithium product maker’s 2022 Ebitda guidance
  • Match Group (MTCH) slips 6.7% premarket as analysts say the miss in the dating-app company’s guidance takes some of the shine off its revenue beat
  • Didi Global (DIDI) led a drop in U.S.-listed Chinese internet stocks after news of an SEC investigation into the ride-hailing company’s 2021 debut in New York added to investor concerns around the sector
  • Skyworks Solutions (SKWS) shares drop 2.5% premarket after the semiconductor device company gave a forecast that was below the average analyst estimate
  • Herbalife (HLF) sinks 17% premarket after slashing its full-year forecast and setting second-quarter adjusted earnings per share outlook below the average analyst estimate
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rises as much as 7.5% in premarket trading, with analysts positive on the demand the chipmaker is seeing from data centers
  • Akamai (AKAM) falls as much as 14% after analysts noted that a slowdown in internet traffic and the loss of revenue due to the war in Ukraine hit the company’s first-quarter results and full-year guidance

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in an interview Wednesday that the Fed should have moved quicker to raise rates as inflation hits the world economy. He said there was a 33% chance of the Federal Reserve’s actions leading to a soft landing for the U.S. economy and a third chance of a mild recession.

“The Fed remains very focused on bringing inflation down, however, any further hawkish pivots will likely be tempered to some extent by the desire to achieve a soft landing,” Blerina Uruci, U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price Group Inc., wrote in a note.

In Europe, declines for retailers and most other industry groups outweighed gains for energy, media and travel and leisure companies, pulling the Stoxx 600 Europe Index down 0.6%. The DAX outperforms, dropping 0.4%, Stoxx 600 lags, dropping 0.5%. Retailers, financial services and construction are the worst performing sectors. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Flutter Entertainment rises more than 6.9% its 1Q update matched broker expectations. Jefferies says a strong U.S. performance fuels confidence that a profitability “tipping point” is nearing.
  • Kindred shares advance after its second-biggest shareholder, Corvex Management LP, said it believes Kindred’s board should evaluate strategic alternatives including a sale or merger.
  • Fresenius SE shares rise as much as 4.2% on beating 1Q expectations. The beat was driven by the Kabi pharmaceutical division, which benefited from a positive FX impact, according to Jefferies.
  • Siemens Healthineers rises after the German health care firm upgraded its earnings guidance. The beat was driven by a “strong performance” in its diagnostics division, Jefferies says.
  • Stillfront shares rise as much as 10% after the Swedish video gaming group presented its latest earnings. Handelsbanken says the report provides good news, justifying some relief in the shares.
  • Yara and K+S climb after the EU’s proposal to sanction the largest Belarus potash companies. Yara may see higher input prices but its market share may rise in wake of a ban, analysts note.
  • Skanska falls as much as 12% after the construction group presented its latest earnings. The report was overall in-line, but construction margins were a weakness, Kepler Cheuvreux says.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined for a third straight day, with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision and a U.S. regulatory probe into Didi Global weighing on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by as much as 0.5%, with Chinese internet giants Tencent and Alibaba the biggest drags. The sector declined on news that the U.S. regulators are investigating Didi’s 2021 trading debut in New York. India’s stock measures fell the most in the region as the domestic central bank hiked a key policy rate in an unscheduled decision. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and Vietnam also fell as some markets returned from holidays, while Japan and China remained closed. All eyes are now on the Fed’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday, with policy makers expected to hike by 50 basis points, the biggest increase since 2000.  

We have two forces of gravity working on Asian equities -the rising interest rates and the lockdowns and weaker growth in China,” Herald van der Linde, head of Asia Pacific equity strategy at HSBC, told Bloomberg Television. The MSCI Asia gauge has dropped more than 13% this year as rising borrowing costs, China’s Covid-19 lockdowns and rising inflation hurt prospects for corporate profits. Shanghai’s exit from a five-week lockdown that has snarled global supply chains is being delayed by infections persistently appearing in the community. “The most important decision Asian equity investors have to make throughout this year may be duration, how to position themselves if inflation is going to peak,” van der Linde added.

In rates, treasuries advanced, outperforming bunds and rising with stock futures, although price action remains subdued ahead of 2pm ET Fed policy decision. Intermediate sectors lead the advance, with yields richer by ~2bp in 5- to 10-year sectors, before Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am. Yields little changed across 2-year sector, flattening 2s10s by ~1.5bp; 10-year at ~2.96% outperforms bunds and gilts by ~3.5bp. Dollar issuance slate empty so far; two borrowers priced $3.7b Tuesday taking weekly total past $8b as new-issue activity remains light; at least two borrowers stood down from announcing deals. Bund and gilt curves bear flatten. Euribor futures drop 7-8 ticks in red and green packs following comments from ECB’s Schnabel late Tuesday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed and the dollar was steady to slightly weaker against most of its Group- of-10 peers. Treasuries were steady, with the 10-year yield nudging 3%. The euro hovered around $1.0520 and European bonds fell. The pound rose past the key $1.25 level and gilts fell in line with euro-area peers, as traders braced for the FOMC rate decision later Wednesday and eyed Thursday’s Bank of England meeting. Data from the British Retail Consortium showed shop price inflation accelerated to 2.7% from a year ago in April, the most since 2011. Australia’s dollar advanced against all its Group-of-10 peers and the nation’s sovereign bonds extended losses as retail sales rising to a record high boosted bets for central bank tightening. Retail sales surged 1.6% in March to A$33.6b, more than triple economists’ forecast for a 0.5% increase.

Bitcoin is bid this morning, in contrast to the recent contained sessions, posting upside in excess of 3.0% on the session; albeit, yet to mount a test of the USD 40k mark.

In commodities, oil rallies after the European Union proposed to ban Russian crude oil over the next six months; however, sources indicate that Hungary and Slovakia will receive an extend phase-our period in order to appease their known opposition. WTI drifts 3.2% higher with gains capped near $105 so far. Spot gold steady at $1,868/Oz. Most base metals trade in the green

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the aforementioned Fed decision, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. On the data side, we’ll also get the final services and composite PMIs from around the world, UK mortgage approvals and Euro Area retail sales for March, and US data for the March trade balance, the ISM services index for April, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for April. Finally, earnings releases include CVS Health, Booking Holdings, Regeneron, Uber, Marriott International and Moderna.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,180.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 444.21
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 167.37
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 553.87
  • Nikkei down 0.1% to 26,818.53
  • Topix little changed at 1,898.35
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 20,869.52
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.4% to 3,047.06
  • Sensex down 1.2% to 56,318.69
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,304.68
  • Kospi down 0.1% to 2,677.57
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.00%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0527
  • Brent Futures up 3.6% to $108.77/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,870.11
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.40

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • A lot is riding on how Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell parries a question he’ll surely be asked after Wednesday’s monetary policy decision: is a 75-basis-point rate hike in the cards at some stage?
  • The negative-yielding bond is nearing extinction: there’s only 100 left in the world. That’s down from over 4,500 such securities last year in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Negative Yielding Debt index, following a surge in yields as investors bet on imminent interest-rate hikes.
  • The EU plans to ban Russian crude oil over the next six months and refined fuels by the end of the year as part of a sixth round of sanctions to increase pressure on Vladimir Putin over his invasion of Ukraine
  • The ECB should consider raising interest rates as soon as July as inflation accelerates, ERR reported, citing Governing Council member Madis Muller
  • North Korea launched what appeared to be a medium-range ballistic missile Wednesday, as Kim Jong Un ramps up his nuclear program ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden’s first visit to Seoul
  • Iceland’s central bank delivered its biggest hike since the 2008 financial crisis to try to curb inflation and rein in Europe’s fastest house-price rally. The Monetary Policy Committee in Reykjavik lifted the seven-day term deposit rate by 100 basis points to 3.75%, accelerating tightening with its largest move yet since the pandemic. The increase was within the range of outcomes indicated by recent surveys of market participants

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were cautious amid holiday closures and as markets braced for the incoming FOMC. ASX 200 was rangebound as strength in financials was offset by tech and consumer sector losses. Hang Seng underperformed amid a tech rout and after a wider than expected contraction in Hong Kong’s advanced Q1 GDP, while China’s COVID-19 woes persisted with Beijing tightening its restrictions.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Plots Different Covid Path to Xi’s Zero Tolerance
  • Beijing Shuts Metro Stations and Suspends Bus Routes
  • Didi Leads Slump in U.S.-Listed Chinese Shares Amid SEC Probe
  • Record India IPO Opens to Retail Amid Fickle Markets: ECM Watch

European bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%, are modestly softer after another subdued but limited APAC handover amid ongoing regional closures. US futures remain in tight pre-FOMC ranges, with participants also awaiting ISM Services and ADP. In Europe, sectors are mostly lower with the exception. US President Biden’s administration is reportedly moving towards the imposition of human-rights related sanctions on Hikvision, according to FT sources; final decision has not been taken.

Top European News

  • Hungary Voices Objection to EU Sanctions Plan on Russian Oil
  • U.K. Mortgage Approvals Fall to 70.7k in March Vs. Est. 70k
  • European Energy Prices Jump as EU Proposes Banning Russian Oil
  • Boohoo Plunges as Online Clothing Retailer’s Growth Wilts

FX

  • DXY anchored around 103.500 awaiting FOMC and Fed chair Powell for further guidance.
  • Aussie gets retail therapy and hawkish RBA rate calls to consolidate gains made in wake of 25 bp hike; AUD/USD pivots 0.7100 and AUD/NZD 1.1050.
  • Kiwi elevated following NZ labour data showing record low unemployment and strength in wages, NZD/USD tightens grip of 0.6400 handle and closer to half round number above.
  • Loonie on a firmer footing ahead of Canadian trade as oil prices bounce, USD/CAD towards base of a broad 1.2850-00 range.
  • Indian Rupee rallies after RBI lifts benchmark rate and reserve ratio at off-cycle policy meeting, former up 40 bp to 4.40% and latter +50 bp to 4.50%.
  • Euro, Yen and Franc remain in close proximity of round and psychological numbers, circa 1.0500, 130.00 and 0.9800 respectively.
  • RBI raises its key repo rate by 40bps to 4.4% in an off-cycle meeting; Also raises the cash reserve ratio by 50bps to 4.5%. Will retain accommodative policy stands but will remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds attempt to nurse some losses before FOMC and a busy agenda in the run up, including ADP, Quarterly Refunding details and the services ISM.
  • Bunds back from a 152.44 low to 153.00+, Gilts edging towards 118.00 from 117.55 and 10 year T-note fractionally above par within a 118-17+/06 range.
  • German Green issuance well received as cover climbs from prior sale and retention dips, albeit with the average yield sharply higher.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are bolstered amid the EU unveiling the sixth round of Russian sanctions, seeing a complete import ban on all Russian oil, benchmarks firmer by circa. USD 3.5/bbl
  • However, sources indicate that Hungary and Slovakia will receive an extend phase-our period in order to appease their known opposition.
  • US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -3.5mln (exp. -0.8mln), Gasoline -4.5mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillate -4.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Cushing +1.0mln.
  • India is looking for Russian oil at under USD 70/bbl on a delivered basis in order to compensate for additional components incl. securing financing, via Bloomberg sources; adding, that India has purchased over 40mln/bbl of Russian crude since late-Feb.
  • OPEC+ sees the 2022 surplus at 1.9mln, +600k BPD from the prior forecasts, according to the JTC report.
  • Several OPEC+ officials expected the current oil pact to continue, according to Argus Media.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: April MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -8.3%
  • 08:15: April ADP Employment Change, est. 382,000, prior 455,000
  • 08:30: March Trade Balance, est. -$107.1b, prior -$89.2b
  • 09:45: April S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 54.7, prior 54.7
  • 09:45: April S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 55.1, prior 55.1
  • 10:00: April ISM Services Index, est. 58.5, prior 58.3
  • 14:00: May Interest on Reserve Balances R, est. 0.90%, prior 0.40%
  • 14:00: May FOMC Rate Decision; est. 0.75%, prior 0.25%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I feel like I aged 20 years after the first half of the Champions League semi-final last night. Luckily the second half was less stressful and Liverpool are through to the final. I don’t think I got those 20 years back though.

Talking of age, if you’re under 43, did 3 years at university and then joined financial markets then you won’t have worked in an era of 50bps Fed rate hikes. This will very likely change tonight as the Fed are a near certainty to raise rates by 50bps. In fact it’ll be the first time the Fed have hiked at consecutive meetings since 2006. So we enter a new era that won’t be familiar to many.

In terms of what to expect later, our US economists are also calling for a 50bps hike in their preview (link here), which follows the comment from Chair Powell before the blackout period that “50 basis points will be on the table” at this meeting. Looking forward, they further see Powell affirming market pricing that further 50bp hikes are ahead, and our US economists believe this will be the first of 3 consecutive 50bp moves, which will eventually take the Fed funds to a peak of 3.6% in mid-2023. We’re also expecting an announcement that balance sheet rundown will begin in June, with terminal cap sizes of $60bn for Treasuries and $35bn for MBS, with both to be phased in over 3 months. See Tim’s preview on QT (link here) for more info on that as well.

While the Fed might have already begun their hiking cycle 7 weeks ago now, the sense that they’re behind the curve has only grown over that time. For example, the latest inflation data from March showed CPI hitting a 40-year high of +8.5%, meaning that the Fed Funds rate was beneath -8% in real terms that month, which is lower than at any point during the 1970s. Meanwhile the labour market has continued to tighten as well, with unemployment at a post-pandemic low of 3.6% in March, and data out yesterday showed that the number of job openings hit a record high of 11.55m (vs. 11.2m expected) as well. That means the number of vacancies per unemployed worker stood at a record high of 1.94 in March, which speaks to the labour shortages present across numerous sectors at the minute.

Ahead of the decision later on, the S&P 500 surrendered an intraday gain of more than +1% to finish the day +0.48% higher, in another New York afternoon turnaround. Energy (+2.87%) and financials (+1.26%) did most of the work keeping the index afloat after dipping its toes in the red late in the day, while only two sectors ultimately finished lower, staples (-0.24%) and discretionary (-0.29%). A sizable 35 S&P 500 companies reported earnings before the close, but there weren’t any standout results to drive an index-wide response. Indeed, the mega-cap FANG+ index only slightly underperformed the broader index at +0.11%. In Europe the STOXX 600 was up +0.53%, closing before the New York reversal. In line with the turnaround, overall volatility remained elevated, with the VIX index (-3.09pts) closing just below the 30 mark.

Ahead of today’s FOMC decision US Treasuries continued their recent back-and-forth price action. The 10yr yield ended ever so slightly lower at -0.1bps. That masks continued rates volatility, however, with the 10yr as much as -8bps lower intraday after having moved above 3% in the previous session for the first time since 2018. The back-and-forth was matched by real yields, as 10yr real yields were as many as -11bps lower before closing down just -0.1bps, comfortably in positive territory for only the second day since March 2020 at 0.14%. The curve flattened as short-end rates moved higher, with 2yr yields gaining +5.1bps, after most tenors were lower earlier in the session.

In Europe, yields on 10yr bunds moved above 1% in trading for the first time since 2015 shortly after the open. Yields did then swing lower, but subsequently recovered to be down just -0.2bps at 0.961%. However, bunds were one of the stronger-performing European sovereigns yesterday, and the spread of both Italian (+2.2bps) and Spanish (+1.1bps) 10yr yields over bunds widened to fresh post-Covid highs in both cases, at 191bps and 106bps respectively.

Asian equity markets are mixed in a holiday thinned session ahead of the Fed’s key rate decision later. The Hang Seng (-0.90%) is trading in negative territory as a decline in Chinese listed tech stocks is weighing on sentiment. Elsewhere, the Kospi (-0.15%) and S&P/ASX 200 (-0.08%) are fractionally lower. Meanwhile, markets in Japan and mainland China are closed today for holidays. Oil prices are slightly higher amid rising prospects of an EU embargo of Russian crude oil. As I type, Brent and WTI futures are c.+1% up to trade at $106.09/bbl and $103.53/bbl respectively.

Early morning data showed that Australia’s retail sales rose for the third consecutive month, advancing +1.6% m/m in March and going past market estimates for a + 0.5% gain. It followed a +1.8% rise in February.

Looking at yesterday’s other data releases, US factory orders grew by a stronger-than-expected +2.2% in March (vs. +1.2% expected). And over in Europe, German unemployment fell be -13k in April (vs. -15k expected), whilst the Euro Area unemployment rate in March fell to 6.8%, which is the lowest since the single currency’s formation. Finally, Euro Area PPI in March soared to 36.8% (vs. 36.3% expected), which is also a record since the single currency’s formation.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned Fed decision, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. On the data side, we’ll also get the final services and composite PMIs from around the world, UK mortgage approvals and Euro Area retail sales for March, and US data for the March trade balance, the ISM services index for April, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for April. Finally, earnings releases include CVS Health, Booking Holdings, Regeneron, Uber, Marriott International and Moderna.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 232.37 OR 1.10%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 29.37 OR .11%         //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.30%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed     /Oil UP TO 103.36 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 106.79 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL READ       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6064 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6587: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B  JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA//SHANGHAI/LOCKDOWNS/USA

One elderly man thought to be dead was carried out in a body bag but he was totally alive

(zerohedge)

Latest Shanghai Lockdown Controversy Involves Elderly COVID Patient Mistaken For Dead

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 07:45 PM

Since the initial lockdown in Shanghai began nearly six weeks ago, there has been an abundance of horror stories ranging from elderly patients dying in the city’s nursing homes (without being officially declared COVID casualties) to COVID workers suspected of murdering the city’s pets (or at the very least those suspected of having been exposed to COVID).

But the latest controversy has been inspired by footage apparently showing a senior citizen being mistaken for dead by staff at an ‘aged care center’ in Shanghai.

The Putuo district government confirmed the mistake on Monday morning and announced an investigation, which has already swept up six people.

The incident was officially reported Sunday afternoon, sparking an online controversy when videos circulating widely on Chinese social media showed two men who appeared to be mortuary workers handling a yellow body bag outside the Shanghai Xinchangzheng welfare hospital.

In the video, the staff members can be seen moving the body, then returning to deliberate with two people in white hazmat suits after realizing that the patient is still alive.

According to the SCMP, the incident triggered a horrified response from many Shanghai residents, whose grief and anger have reached a new peak. What’s more, the local government is facing mounting criticism for its handling of the Omicron outbreak.

Punishments are being handed down, but it’s not clear whether this will be enough to satiate the public backlash. Four officials, including a director of the care home and a doctor, had been either sacked or reprimanded. Ge Fang, director of the Shanghai Xinchangzheng Welfare Hospital, has been fired, while a doctor in charge was barred from practicing medicine and will face further police investigation.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/EU

EU//PROPOSAL FOR RUSSIAN OIL BAN

Not with Hungary and Slovakia around

(zerohedge)

EU Proposes Ban On Russian Oil Imports

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 07:35 AM

Seemingly right on cue (and by that we mean less than two weeks after Emmanuel Macron won re-election in France, securing the European status quo), and shortly after the Germans acquiesced to demands for a gradual reduction in Russian oil imports, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced plans for a phased ban on all Russian oil by the end of the year.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament this would be “a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline, crude and refined.”

We will make sure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion, in a way that allows us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes and minimises the impact on global markets,” she said.

“This is why we will phase out Russian supply of crude oil within six months and refined products by the end of the year.”

 In a proposed sixth round of sanctions aimed at pressuring President Putin, von der Leyen also said the bloc’s executive body was also proposing to take Russia’s biggest bank, Sberbank, and two other Russian banks off the Swift financial-messaging system.

What’s more, the European Commission is also planning to ban three major Russian state-owned broadcasters from the EU.

According to von der Leyen, EU member states will start discussing this latest sanctions package later Wednesday in Brussels. Ambassadors from the European Union’s 27 member countries were expected to adopt the plans as early as this week, meaning the sanctions could soon become law, Reuters notes, although differences remain among member states about certain aspects of the proposals.

Oil prices jumped on the news, but the shift in spot prices doesn’t entirely reflect the difficulties ahead, as Europe’s scramble to replace Russian supplies will likely create serious problems in the international market, as they search for replacement sources from the Middle East, North Africa and the US.

The rise in prices also removes all the price-drop benefits of President Biden’s massive SPR release plan to bring down US retail gasoline prices.

To be sure, a full embargo on Russian oil isn’t a done deal yet: Hungary (seeking exemptions) has repeatedly warned it could veto an oil package that doesn’t allow Budapest enough time and financial assistance to set up the infrastructure needed to wean itself off Russian oil pipeline deliveries. Diplomats said at least two more member states, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, have argued that if Hungary and Slovakia are given more time to stop buying Russian oil exports, they should be given the same leeway.

A trickier issue will be replacing Russian refined product imports, particularly so-called middle distillates. These include fuels such as diesel, fuel oil that runs heavy-duty vehicles and machinery, and inputs for petrochemicals. 

“The middle distillate market is extremely tight in most regions around the globe. Risks around Russian supply, lower Chinese exports, recovering demand following Covid, and limited ability of refiners to respond has meant that inventories in the US, Europe and Asia are at multiyear lows,” ING strategist Warren Patterson said.

Von der Leyen delusionally noted at the conclusion of her speech that her proposal will “maximize pressure on Russia, while at the same time minimizing collateral damage to us and our partners around the globe.” In reality, we fail to see how reduced supply at this time – and thus higher prices – does anything but hurt every other nation on earth (especially the poorest)… which perhaps explains why so many nations (including those with some of the lower GDP per person levels) refuse to go along with the West’s plan to punish Putin.

end

GERMANY/MORGAN STANLEY + other banks

First it was Deutsche bank’s head office in Frankfurt. Now Morgan Stanley’s offices raid as part of tax fraud probe.

(zerohedge)

Morgan Stanley’s Frankfurt Offices Raided As Part Of Cum-Ex Tax Fraud Probe

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 02:45 AM

German regulators have been staying busy over the last few weeks.

Just days after we noted that Deutsche Bank offices in Frankfurt were being raided as part of a money laundering probe the bank reportedly tipped regulators off to, it now looks like Morgan Stanley is also dealing with a regulatory raid by German prosecutors. 

The Morgan Stanley raid is related to the “rapidly widening” Cum-Ex scandal, which is centered on cross-border tax fraud. 

“Authorities are searching a bank and the homes of two suspects in a probe over Cum-Ex and related strategies,” Bloomberg reported Tuesday morning, stating that more than 75 officers were on hand to take part in the raid. 

The same report notes that Morgan Stanley confirmed that it had been targeted and said that the investigation relates to a “historic activity” and that the bank is “continuing to cooperate with the German authorities.” 

The probe encompasses about 1,500 people from the financial industry and similar raids have been carried out at Barclay’s and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Deutsche Bank is also said to face “major repercussions”. 

Cum-ex reportedly diverted “at least 10 billion euros” in government revenue by exploiting German tax laws that allowed multiple investors to claim refunds of a tax on dividends that was paid only once, Bloomberg reported.

The practice was abolished in 2012, but the probe continues

end. 

end

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/LVIV

Barrage of cruise missiles rock Western Ukraine and it plunged Lviv into darkness

(zerohedge)

Barrage Of Cruise Missiles Rock Western Ukraine, Plunging Lviv Into Darkness

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 03:44 PM

On Tuesday multiple media correspondents reporting from the western Ukrainian city of Lviv said they heard several large blasts in the evening hours. It has since emerged that railway power substations are coming under attack, after the Kremlin last week indicated its military would ramp up efforts to thwart Western arms deliveries into Ukraine.

Ukrainian Railways has announced Tuesday night that a number of trains are delayed after the blasts. “In particular, trains have been detained at the entrance to Lviv, information is being updated,” a statement from the rail authority quoted by CNN said. The attacks, which are being called the biggest cruise missile strikes on Lviv and perhaps across Ukraine since the war’s start, have knocked out power and internet to parts of the city. Vital power and train stations have also been hit in other key areas of the country Tuesday night (local time).

Traffic throughout the city also came to a halt, correspondents on the ground noted. Largescale strikes on Lviv have been a rarity throughout Russia’s over 2-month long invasion, given the major Western city’s distance from the frontlines of fighting, which remains in Donbas as well as to the south.

Whole sections of the city are also without power:

Lviv Mayor Andrii Sadovyi said that parts of the city are without power. Sadovyi also said that “as a result of the missile strikes, two power substations were damaged.”

Explosions were reported in multiple locations across the city, including in positions south, east and west.

It’s believed though unconfirmed that at least five cruise missiles slammed into Lviv – and there were many more across other parts of the country.

CNN correspondents are reporting:

Blasts heard in Lviv, Ukraine, coming from east, south and west of the city center. One site is close to the city center. From another, a huge plume of black smoke can be seen billowing across sky. All the lights across city appear to be out.

The Monday prior, Russian forces attacked at least six railway stations and facilities, some of them also near Lviv.

Ukraine’s military command previously commented that targeting rails has been part of ongoing Russian efforts to completely disable the country’s military transport infrastructure, specifically with an eye on foreign arms transfers as what the Kremlin previously dubbed “legitimate targets”. Kiev and the UN have also condemned attacks on civilians and vital civilian transport at a time of unprecedented numbers of internally displaced war refugees.

A Ukrainian military statement published last week alerted the public that the Russians “are trying to destroy the supply routes of military-technical assistance from partner states. To do this, they focus strikes on railway junctions.”

The below video was reportedly taken days ago:

And further attacks on railway and power infrastructure are being reported into the Tuesday night hours in various parts of the country.

A number of cities continue to be on high alert as the Russian military is apparently increasing its targeting of power and transport infrastructure sites

END

RUSSIA/ISRAEL

This is something that we do not need

(zerohedge)

Angry Diplomatic Row Escalates Between Israel & Russia

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 04:15 AM

A bizarre and severe diplomatic dispute filled with over the top rhetoric broke out between Israel and Russia at the start of this week when Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov asserted that Adolf Hitler had “Jewish Blood”.

This has led to Israel demanding an official apology and retraction of the statement, which appeared intended by Lavrov to deflect when pressed on why President Putin has repeatedly said Ukraine is in the grip of neo-Nazis when its president Volodymyr Zelensky is himself Jewish.Prior photo of Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: Jerusalem Post

It all started during an interview Lavrov did with Italian TV on Sunday, but which was quickly picked up in international press. US and European officials have also expressed outrage.

“As to [Zelenskiy’s] argument of what kind of nazification can we have if I’m Jewish, if I remember correctly, and I may be wrong, Hitler also had Jewish blood,” Lavrov said when asked about the Kremlin’s ‘denazification’ justification for its invasion. “It doesn’t mean anything at all,” he added.

Lavrov went on to explain that the “most rabid antisemites tend to be Jews.” Moscow for its part has been outraged that for years Western media and politicians have been cheerleading far-right nationalist groups in Ukraine that have long been widely acknowledged as neo-Nazi in ideology, also often unashamedly flashing swastikas for cameras. Lavrov said the following:

“We have for a long time listened to the wise Jewish people who say that the most rabid antisemites tend to be Jews,” and added, “There is no family without a monster.”

Israel quickly summoned the Russian ambassador Monday and demanded an apology over the statements.

Western press has also reacted fiercely to the statement…

But Russia instead doubled-down, charging Israel with in effect supporting “the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv” in fresh Tuesday statements.

According to more from Russia’s foreign ministry:

On Tuesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry charged “the Jewish origins of the president (Zelensky) is not a guarantee of protection against rampant neo-Nazism in the country.”

“Ukraine, may it be said in passing, is not the only one in this case,” the Ministry said, citing Latvian President Egils Levits who “has also Jewish roots and he also gives cover… to the rehabilitation of the Waffen SS in his country.”

Israel’s Foreign Minister Lapid had earlier on Monday called Lavrov’s “remarks are both an unforgivable and outrageous statement as well as a terrible historical error,” and the controversy reached Prime Minister Bennett’s office, who called Lavrov’s remarks “lies.”

END

END

Ukraine Says Communications With Trapped Fighters In Azovstal Has Gone Dark

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 11:05 AM

Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boichenko has announced Wednesday that Ukrainian officials no longer have communications contact with the estimated couple thousand Azov fighters still holed up beneath the cavernous Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol.

Hundreds of civilians are also believed still trapped there, and running low on food, water and supplies. As we detailed Tuesday, for the first time in the weeks-long standoff for the sprawling complex, Russian forces attacked the plant as Azov fighters briefly emerged and reportedly set up firing positions.

These sporadic gun battles have continued, as part of the final showdown for Azovstal, and as the trapped Ukrainian militants vow to fight till the end, refusing Russian demands to immediately come out and surrender. Some few hundred civilians have also been safely led out over the past number of days under UN and Red Cross brokered ceasefires.Via Reuters

Mariupol Mayor Boichenko has issued a fresh statement: “Today there are heavy battles on the territory of our fortress, on the territory of Azovstal. Our brave guys are defending this fortress, but it is very difficult, because heavy artillery and tanks are firing all over the fortress; aviation is working, ships have approached and are also firing on the fortress.”

Of the some 30 children said to be trapped among the civilians still beneath the plant, he said, “They are waiting for a new negotiation procedure and a new evacuation mission,” and described a constant barrage of Russian artillery on the complex.

The mayor confirmed that any contact with those inside has ‘gone dark’

“Unfortunately, today there is no connection with the guys, there is no connection to understand what is happening, whether they are safe or not. Yesterday there was a connection with them; today, no more.”

Amid recent Western media reports the Russians had “stormed” Azovstal overnight, the Kremlin has issued a statement rejecting this narrative.

“There has been a public order by the supreme commander [Russian President Vladimir Putin] to cancel the storming; there is no storming,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday.

Peskov explained: “We see that there are aggravations associated with the fact that the militants go to firing positions. These attempts are suppressed very quickly. There is nothing else to say here yet.”

Ukrainian media is alleging that the Russians plan to hold a ‘Victory Day’ parade in the captured city of Mariupol…

Despite what appears to be increasing desperation on the part of the Ukrainian fighters stuck inside and surrounded, the standoff could still last days, or even weeks more, depending on how much in the way of supplies they have, including ammo.

The desperation was captured in the following CNN interview with an Azov member:

Fighters inside the besieged plant are “sharing water and food” with civilians – but time is running out, the deputy commander of the Ukrainian Azov Regiment, Svyatoslav Palamar, told CNN on Monday evening.

“We are extremely short on supplies in terms of water and food. I cannot tell you for sure how much is left… but I can assure you that we are saving, very fearful without water and food, and especially ammunition,” Palamar, who is inside the plant, said.

He added: “If (worse) comes to worst and we run out of food, we’ll be catching birds and we’ll be doing everything just to stand firm.”

END

Moldova/Transnistria//RUSSIA/UKRAINE

More trouble as the EU mulls military support for Moldova as they accuse Russia of provocations in Transnistria

(zerohedge)

EU Mulls Military Support To Moldova As Russia Accused Of ‘Provocations’ In Breakaway Transnistria 

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 01:45 PM

Lately there’s been widespread speculation and suspicions in the West that Russia has its eye on Moldova and the tiny breakaway region of Transnistria for military aggression next, both which neighbor Ukraine.

For much of the past two weeks Russia and Ukraine have exchanged accusations over a series of unexplained explosions in the Transnistria region, which is host to some 1,500 Russian “peacekeeping” troops (most of which are said to be Transnistrian separatists holding Russian passports). Ukraine’s defense ministry called the destabilizing incidents a “planned provocation” designed to justify a greater Russian military intervention.

Internationally recognized as part of Moldova, the breakaway republic of Transnistria has population of nearly 500,000 – but is seen by some Western analysts as potentially serving as a launching point for Russian destabilizing action against Moldova. Russia’s troop presence there goes all the way back to 1992 in support of the separatists.

And now on Wednesday it seems the region is coming more and more into the spotlight related to the war across the border in Ukraine, given the European Union says it is now exploring options for ramping up military support to Moldova. Moldova has just an estimated 6,000 regular forces in its military.

“The European Union is considering ways to further boost Moldova’s military, EU Council President Charles Michel said Wednesday, following recent attacks in the country’s pro-Moscow breakaway region of Transnistria,” CNN reports. And further:

Speaking alongside Moldova’s president Maia Sandu in Chisinau, Michel said “some decisions” have already been taken to enhance support in the fields of logistics and cyber defense.

The pair discussed what further military support could be provided, he said, but would not go into detail “to avoid any escalation.”

The fear is that anything perceived as to overt in terms of assistance would itself be used of Moscow to justify deeper intervention in Transnistria and Moldova.

“We don’t think that it is smart or intelligent to express provocative statements about [the] situation in Moldova or in Transnistria,” the EU’s Michel said further. “We want to prevent any incident.”

Already Kiev is alleging that Russian forces are preparing to move on the region with tensions at a boil. On Tuesday the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Russian officers and their families in Transnistria are preparing to evacuate for safety reasons ahead of alleged broader Kremlin-ordered action.

Recently Ukraine has accused pro-Russian separatists of firing missiles on Ukraine from just across the border…

“Armed formations of the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova are serving in an intensified mode. Preparations are underway for the evacuation of the families of officers of the operational group of Russian troops,” the Ukraine military statement said. However, this remains on the level of an allegation and is unverified.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

This explains the reality of how Russia sees the West and the conflict in the Ukraine .. I given who wrote this, it is significant

Inbox

Robert Hryniak7:50 AM (18 minutes ago)
to

Source:  https://glazev.ru/articles/10-vlast-i-obshhestvo/101493-narod-plokho-ponimaet-chto-proiskhodit

Machine Translation 

I will try to briefly explain and justify the necessary measures to achieve Victory

A special military operation (SVO) revealed a plan prepared in advance by the US power and financial elite to seize power in Russia. It includes the following components and stages.

1. Wear out the Russian armed forces in a war with well-trained and directly controlled by the Pentagon fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, “stitched” by the Nazis with a vertical of officers appointed by the US and British special services. Turn the population of Ukraine into zombies infected with Russophobia. At the same time, incite the international community against Russia, making accusations of war crimes and genocide against its leadership. On this basis, confiscate Russia’s foreign currency assets and impose total sanctions against it, causing the maximum possible damage. This stage is actually completed.

2. Terrorize the Russian population with shelling of border settlements and military infrastructure, sabotage of transport, and hacker attacks. Hit the public consciousness with a flood of negative fake news and anti-government propaganda through social networks. To impose, through their agents of influence in the financial and economic authorities, an economic policy that blocks the mobilization of resources, including: inflating interest rates, continuing the export of capital, encouraging currency and financial speculation, manipulating the ruble exchange rate, and inflating prices. Thus, the sanctions can be repeatedly aggravated and provoke a collapse in production and a decline in living standards. This stage is in full swing.

3. Provoking protest moods and destructive socio-political actions aimed at overthrowing the legitimate authorities against the background of falling living standards and losses in the course of their activities. The use of the entire arsenal of methods for organizing “color revolutions” financed by the Comprador oligarchy under the promise of unfreezing assets seized in the US-European jurisdiction. At the same time, we are preparing the organizational and ideological foundations for separatist actions in the regions. This stage is under active development.

This plan also provides for the following tasks::

  • consolidation of US control over the European Union and NATO countries;
  • use of the armed forces of Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, as well as mercenaries from the West, the Middle East and the Middle East in combat operations against Russia;
  • the destruction of the male population and the actual enslavement of women and children of Ukraine for the subsequent development of this territory in the interests of the power and financial elite of the United States, Britain and Israel.

The implementation of this plan, in fact, is aimed at destroying the Russian world, followed by the American “deep state” plans to destroy Iran and block China.

Due to the objective laws of global economic development, this plan is doomed to failure. The United States will not be able to win the global hybrid war it has unleashed to maintain its global hegemony. They are irrevocably losing it to China, which is rapidly strengthening as a result of anti-Russian sanctions.

Washington, London, and Brussels played their main trump cards in an effort to inflict maximum possible damage on Russia: a monopoly on the issue of world currencies, an image of an exemplary legal democratic state, and a belief in the “sacred” right of private property. Thus, they have put all independent countries in front of the need to find new global currency instruments, risk insurance mechanisms, restore the norms of international law and create their own economic security systems.

Anti-Russian sanctions did not strengthen, but, on the contrary, undermined the global dominance of the United States and the EU, which the rest of the world began to treat with distrust and apprehension. They dramatically accelerated the transition to a new world economic order and the shift of the center of the world economy to Southeast Asia. Russia needs to stand up to the United States and NATO in its confrontation, bringing IT to its logical conclusion, so as not to be torn between them and China, which is irrevocably becoming the leader of the world economy.

Deception In Operation Z 

Inbox

Robert Hryniak5:56 PM (21 minutes ago)
to

He is spot on.
If there is a negotiated settlement, it will come after phase 2 when the Ukraine forces in the Donbas are destroyed. And in the further determination to destroy all functioning ability of military forces in the western Ukraine. Today, saw in increase in western Ukrainian hits to military capability by stand off missiles. It is likely this will continue. As for this year’s growing season in the Ukraine, it will be be a fraction of what it has been, leaving Europe to face the reality of food shortages and Price inflation.
While we hear sounds of war being lost by politicians, it is not just possible but a reality. What remains if for thousands to die and profits to be made by unclean hands, and for photo ops to play to the current narrative.

END

The ending conflict in the Ukraine

Inbox

Robert Hryniak1:58 PM (2 minutes ago)
to

This is now the second week the Ukrainians are having problems withdrawing money from their personal accounts in Privat bank. When you ask,  the answer is technical work is being done to computer systems. The reality is the banks are closing accounts and stealing people’s  money. You might say the major Ukrainian banks are conducting what can be called an economic evacuation for their benefactors by creating loans into shell companies outside of the Ukraine and then withdrawing funds to foreign accounts abroad at inflated interest rates. Thereby causing loan failures.

What is likely to happen is that as soon as the Ukrainian banks are done with withdrawing as much money as they can from the Ukrainian banking system the system will collapse. Any real ongoing fighting is a rear guard cover action and weapons test.

So what will happen is individuals and companies will lose their deposits and the Ukrainian currency called Hryvnia Will depreciate dramatically. Predication is at this point Zelensky will run with his ill gotten gains to either Britain or the US as will his cohorts.

Clearly this is by design and the endgame of a losing war with Russia. The idea is to saddle Russia with a collapsed Ukraine to bail out damaging the Russian economy and the Russian Ruble. Weather this really turns out to be the case it remains to be seen. But what is clear is that the Ukrainian people will be cut loose as expendable game  in a larger game hegemony.

No doubt, there are foreign actors rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of picking the bones to scavenge what is left. And Russia will have to make a choice as well to abandon that part of the Ukraine not desired and let it fail. While cleansing the rest of Neo Nazi types which will take a long time. Either way,  the country will be split up as it is unlikely that Russia will choose to bear the cost of a failed state in its’ entirety. And thus, the Neocon crowd will have succeeded in part in damaging Russia and redirecting its’ attention to allow a refocus on China and Iran.

And this unresolved conflict will be put off for anther day, while both sides assess and prepare for the next round, at a time when both parties will skip niceties, early on.

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE/

VACCINE IMPACT

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Vaccine Impact

Bill Gates’ Dream to Control the Planet through the World Health Organization is Becoming Closer to Reality
May 3, 2022 3:11 pm
From time to time I get emails from people asking me to cover some story or video about Bill Gates and his influence in global vaccine production and distribution, and I usually reply by asking the person who is emailing the information if they have first searched for “Bill Gates” on Health Impact News, because we have been covering Bill Gates’ role behind global vaccination programs, mainly by buying a controlling interest in the World Health Organization, for over a decade now. If you search for “Bill Gates” on Health Impact News, it will return a result of 318 articles (319 when this one is published). On April 8, 2020, when were were just weeks into the COVID Plandemic, I published an article titled: “Who is Controlling the U.S. Response to COVID19: The White House or Bill Gates?” where I presented very strong evidence that Bill Gates was controlling U.S. policy regarding COVID-19, and not Donald Trump or the White House. It was published the day after President Trump announced that the United States would no longer support the World Health Organization. Earlier this week Bill Gates announced what the plan is for what comes next now that the majority of the world’s population has been conditioned to fear “viruses” and surrender all of their civil liberties to fight this “unseen war” against “global pandemics.” There will be one pandemic treaty, one GERM team, one global vaccine passport, and one World Health Organization to monitor every person on the planet.Read More…China is Stockpiling Food in Preparation of Looming Food Shortages While U.S. Increases Exports

May 3, 2022 6:08 pm

While killer lockdowns in China are leading to starvation and mass suicide, as well as serious disruptions to exports, China has been quietly stockpiling food for the past couple of years in what appears to be preparation for coming food shortages, and is increasing imports of food. In December of 2021, RT.com reported that China had the world’s largest stockpile of grains. Today, RT.com is reporting that China is addressing “food security concerns” by increasing their imports of soybeans, mostly from the U.S. Soybeans are high in protein and the #1 ingredient in livestock feed today. People in the Washington D.C. are stating that these increased exports of food to China are good for American farmers, apparently ignoring the fact that the U.S. should also be stockpiling food as part of our own national food security. Not only can soybeans be used in animal feeds, it can be turned into biodiesel and combined with petroleum diesel to help keep our trucks on the road in the event that fuel becomes scarce or too expensive to operate the nation’s trucking fleet. So as China increases their food security, the U.S. Government seems to be destroying our own food security here in the U.S.Read More…

 

 

Michael Every

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

Rabobank: “That’s Not How The Fed Works”

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 12:08 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Today is Fed day. A 50bp is a shoo-in: as absolutely nobody was predicting a year ago when they told us inflation was all about lumber and used cars and was “transitory”.

The FOMC sit down to their decision against the backdrop of a JOLTS report that says there are now 11.5m open job positions in the US. That’s vastly more than the number of people looking for work. So, there are only a few strategic choices:

  • Allow wages to rise so people come back to the labour force again;
  • Allow inflation to destroy living standards such that workers will happily take any job; or
  • Destroy demand for the extra jobs so workers also get back in line.

The Fed won’t do the first – you didn’t believe all that guff about inequality did you? They won’t do the second, despite making a good fist of it last year. That leaves the third option, and so the real interest will be on what the Fed says about how many hundreds of basis points of future hikes we will see going forwards.

As Philip Marey notes here, “The Fed is trying to catch up by taking steps at every meeting. However, it is probably too late to engineer a soft landing. The Fed’s main policy error was to ignore the rise in inflation last year as we feared in Is the Fed going to be blindsided by inflation? This has set in motion a wage-price spiral that will be very difficult to reverse without hiking the economy into recession.”

The Fed doesn’t listen to former members either given an interview with ex-vice-chair Quarles, who also says, “Given the intensity of inflation, the degree to which unemployment has been driven down – to bring that back into an equilibrium, it’s unlikely the Fed is going to be able to manage that to a soft landing. The effect is likely to be a recession…. For an economy that has accustomed itself to interest rates as low as they have been for as long as they have been, it doesn’t take a very large nominal increase in interest rates to be a very significant percentage of debt service for a number of heavily indebted actors. The effect on the economy could be fairly strong.”

The Fed additionally never listens to other central banks, more’s the pity, but the RBNZ just flagged that a “sharp” decline in housing prices is “plausible” as it raises rates: the RBA are pretending the cross-Tasman internet cables just got cut so it didn’t hear it.

Quarles, who is naturally now an asset manager, also suggested the Fed would have acted earlier on rates but was hampered by uncertainty over President Biden stalling on who would be Chair: “We would have been better served to start getting on top of it in September. That was hard to do until there was clarity as to what the leadership going forward of the Fed was going to be.” Doesn’t that say a lot about how politically independent they are?(!) Or does it sound like Harry Hindsight?

Of course, Quarles still believes “The Fed will get on top of inflation.” The issue is what else they get on top of first.

It’s hard to be bullish unaffordable housing when rates are rising; cash when US inflation is 8.5% y/y, diesel is pushing $6, and natural gas $8; equities when rates are rising; bonds, unless you think the market has already priced in everything the Fed might (over)do – which is what the market also thought a year ago; crypto, EM FX, or even gold. Usually, other commodities too – but as long as this (economic) war goes on, so will upward pressure on most all of them.

Today is also Star Wars Day (“May the Fourth be with you”). And there is a link with the Fed.

The iteration of Star Wars that began in 2015 has been divisive. Some loved it, but mainly those who never liked Star Wars before, and don’t spend money on it. For most hard-core fans, “It was as if a million voices cried out in pain; and were suddenly silenced.” I walked out of ‘So-so-lo’ thinking I didn’t care if I ever saw a Star Wars film again; I went back to see ‘The Rise of Skywalker’ and wished I hadn’t. Like ‘The Book of Boba Fat’, and maybe the upcoming ‘Oh-no-bi-Wan Kenobi’, Star Wars now seems led by those who don’t understand it; or script-writing; or Campbell’s monomyth of ‘The Hero’s Journey’.

Things just happen on screen because they look good, or are fun, or because we need a certain Member Berries. Events and actions have no connection with what happened before or what happens next – consequences, shmonsequences, canon, shmanon. It’s the synaptic difference between watching media made by people who read books and watching media made by people who ‘read’ TikTok. Ironically, it is much like watching a very young child playing with Star Wars action figures: ‘Bang! Pow! Zap! I win! I win! I win!’ – not very entertaining for anyone else. My point is summed up by the line in the first sequel where Harrison Ford exclaims, “That’s not how the Force works!”

The link to Fed is that we are seeing epic real-life space-opera playing out around us. There is war and heroism, and destruction and evil from people saying they want ‘to end this destructive conflict and bring order to the galaxy’. There is economic war, ironically over the taxation of trade routes, as the dull Star Wars prequel trilogy covered. There is fear of the end of democracy to thunderous applause, as it covered too. And yet we have a huge chunk of the markets playing with their action figures – ‘Bang! Powell! Zap! I win! I win! I win!’ Yes, markets are reeling now… but there is still a belief that this is just a Fed head-fake before we get back to the usual plot of assets going up.

Yet perhaps “That’s not how the Fed works! against the current backdrop; nor the economy; nor the global trading system. Yes, we were never going to see an onshoring shift if it came from the Left – we don’t live on Naboo! But if it is coming from the national security Right and from big businesses, even with automation as R2-D2 to that whinging C-3PO, things look very different.

The Fed doesn’t talk about geopolitics, but it also doesn’t talk about politics when we know it is aware of them. We now have a former Fed Chair as Treasury Secretary talking about ‘friend-shoring’, and a Vice Fed Chair married to Kurt Campbell, the White House “Asia co-ordinator” or “Asia Tsar” under the NSA.

As Robin Brooks of the IIF puts it, that, “It’s a terrible indictment of the group think in macro that everyone talked with great enthusiasm about R* when inflation was low. But now that inflation is up, no one talks about it at all. It’s as if R* never existed. For the record, our proxy is up to 3.1% from 1.0% pre-COVID.”  He is trying to say ‘The Fed Awakens’.

Also consider that the Fed wants a strong dollar to crush commodities; and, as Jane Foley notes in ‘USD – Win, win?’, if in doing so it crushes the US economy and world markets, you still have to buy the dollar when global risk comes off.

Luke Skywalker: “I am not afraid”

Yoda: “You will be. You will be.”

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Because hedgers hedged their bets against a falling oil price, they face a stiff $42 billion dollars loss.

(Geiger/OilPrice.com)

Shale Producers Face $42 Billion In Hedging Losses

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 08:08 AM

By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

With earnings season underway, America’s shale producers are expected, almost across the board, to report stellar earnings, but as Bloomberg reports, they’ll also be taking huge losses from hedging against falling oil prices. 

In total, BloombergNEF estimates that through next year, U.S. shale companies will face $42 billion in oil and gas hedging losses, based on 2021 data. That means that while balance sheets might remain intact, companies will spend big to exit positions. 

BloombergNEF notes that Hess Corp found itself spending $325 million in March to exit hedges at a serious loss, while Pioneer paid a similar amount to exit and lost $2B on hedges last year, while EOG lost $2.8 billion in Q1. 

Dropping those hedges could mean a lot more revenue for shale producers this year; however, there’s a substantial amount of risk that comes with that if oil prices fall and no hedges are in place. 

“These large companies, their balance sheets are so much cleaner and their risk appetite is higher,” Bloomberg quoted Enverus analyst Andy McConn as saying. “They’ve recognized the demand from investors for exposure to the near-term prices. And so all those things considered, they’re saying, it’s worth our interest to just get rid of hedges.”

Smaller Appalachian natural gas companies are also feeling the hedging pain, with less ability to manage it.

Pennsylvania-based EQT recorded $3 billion in losses on derivatives that were not designated as hedges, according to the Post Gazette, while CNX lost some $1.7 billion in the first quarter, compared with $1 billion in losses for Texas-based Range Resources. 

For 2022, EQT has some 65% of its production hedged. For 2023, it has nearly half hedged, but gas prices are still rising.  

end

Does Europe really need Russia oil distillates

Inbox

Kevin Wallien7:08 AM (58 minutes ago)
to me

Wondered if you know anyone that could confirm this project is far enough along to take the place of all Russian gas supplied to Europe?

“The EastMed gas pipeline of Israel, far from being a positive energy alternative, is rather a geopolitical intervention into an already conflicted region adding new levels of tension that only increase prospects for military escalation on all sides.”

https://katehon.com/en/article/mad-geopolitics-israels-eastmed-gas-pipeline

I met a person yesterday from the region that is well connected and informed who told me as much.
That jews and muslims together are on board with this.

He told me that the Qatar Saudi Turkey gas pipeline was also diverted into Egypt and is being laid under the Mediterranean to reach Europe.

Would paint a difficult picture for Russia and Putin.

https://www.gem.wiki/Qatar-Turkey_Gas_Pipeline

I am starting to wonder if the East-Med gas pipeline, Israel Leviathan gas, and Qatar/Saudi/Egypt//Turkey pipeline is a sign indicating the west has decided to destroy Russia and worries not about supplying oil distillates to EU in short order.

Always thought EU needed Russian oil distillates. Maybe I am terribly incorrect.  

https://www.rt.com/business/554917-eu-proposes-russian-oil-embargo/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-israel-supports-neo-nazis-row-over-ukraine-2022-05-03/

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

INDIA

India stuns market with a surprise rate hike by 40 basis points

(zerohedge)

India Stuns Market With Surprise Rate Hike In Unscheduled Meeting Ahead Of Fed

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 01:07 PM

In a preview of what an overly hawkish FOMC statement today could do to markets, overnight India’s central bank hiked its key policy rate in a surprise move, the first hike since June 2018, leading to a broad-based selloff in bonds as the fight against inflation becomes real, with the Federal Reserve also expected to hike rates by 50 bps when it meets later today.

The Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly raised the policy repo rate – its main lending rate – by 40 bps to 4.40% highlighting continuing inflation risks amidst a broad-based growth recovery even as it decided to “remain accommodative while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation”.

In order to tighten banking system liquidity, the RBI decided to increase the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50bp to 4.5% of aggregate deposits. The withdrawal of liquidity through this increase in the CRR would be of the order of INR 0.9tn per the RBI, and is expected to move the weighted average call money rate – the operating target of monetary policy, which was dipping below the bottom of the policy rate corridor (i.e. below the standing deposit facility, or SDF) – higher. This would aid in the transmission of policy rate hikes in the economy.

In the most recent policy meeting on April 8, the RBI made a hawkish pivot by:

  • a) recognizing inflation risks by raising inflation forecasts by 120bp from the February policy meeting,
  • b) setting inflation control as a priority over growth,
  • c) reinstating the policy corridor to pre-pandemic levels by introducing a new deposit facility at 3.75% (40bp above the existing reverse repo rate), and
  • d) changing the language of the policy stance to remaining accommodative “while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation”.

In the inflation data that was released on April 12, the headline CPI print for March came in at 7% (60bp above consensus expectations) driven by an upside surprise in food prices (Exhibit 1). Food inflation increased to 7.5% yoy, highest since November 2020, driven by broad-based increase in food prices. (Exhibit 2).  Core inflation increased to 6.3% yoy which was driven by an increase in core goods inflation to 7.5% yoy (7.1% yoy in February) while core services inflation almost remained flat at 4.8% yoy (4.7% yoy in February)

It is not clear what prompted the RBI to start the policy rate hiking cycle in an off-cycle meeting, given that the Governor had earlier stated that the RBI’s actions would be “calibrated and well-telegraphed”, and the next scheduled policy meeting is just over a month away (June 6-8). It is possible that the higher than expected inflation print in March 2022, and policy rate hikes by other central banks, including the US Fed prompted a sharp pivot in the RBI’s monetary policy reaction function.

While the RBI did not give updated inflation or growth forecasts with today’s policy statement, most banks continue to forecast inflation to remain higher for longer, and materially above the RBI’s last published forecast for 2H 2022. In its post-mortem note, Goldman writes that today’s off-cycle hike suggests the RBI will now implement a faster and more decisive monetary policy tightening cycle, and now forecasts the RBI to hike the policy repo rate by 50bp further in the June 2022 meeting, followed by 25bp hikes each in August, October and December meetings: “We thus forecast cumulative further 125bp repo rate hikes in 2022, with an additional 100bp repo rate hikes in 2023. On a cumulative basis, we now forecast 265bp of rate hikes in this cycle from 200bp earlier.”

Following the shock hike, the Indian 10-year yield rose to a three-year high and is now testing resistance from a long-term trendline originating from the 2013 taper tantrum surge. Any break and close above this resistance of 7.33% for the month will bring 7.94% into focus, with tactical resistances coming into play in the 7.50% – 7.70% area, according to BBG’s Akshay Chinchalkar.

Commenting on the surprise hike, Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at Mumbai-based HDFC Securities said that India’s interest rate-sensitive sectors like automobiles and housing will be hit particularly hard by the surprise rate hike by the central bank. He said that while the RBI’s rate increase was expected, timing was a surprise, with stocks already in weak territory due to inflation, war in Ukraine.

S&P BSE Consumer Durable Index -3.8% at a two-month low; S&P BSE Realty Index -3.4%, while S&P BSE Auto Index down 2.5%; benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and gauge of bank stocks down 2.3%

That said, even in India, investors await U.S. Fed’s guidance on further tightening later in day for next session; a less hawkish outlook on rate increases could support a relief rally in stocks.

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0528 UP .0004 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL READ 

USA/ YEN 129.83   DOWN 0.192 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2509 UP   0.0011

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 71.58 POINTS UP 2.41%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 232.38 OR 1.10%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.30%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED  

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 232.37 OR 1.10%  

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 71.58 PTS PUP 2.41% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.30 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 29.37 PTS OR .11%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1969.00

silver:$22.61

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 103.41  DOWN 9  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS WEDNESSDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.11%  UP 6  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.224%   AND 0   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.07%// UP 6   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.98  UP 12   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.972% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.00% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for tues /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0560  UP 0034    or 34 basis points

USA/Japan: 129.98 DOWN 187 OR YEN UP 18  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2502 UP 3  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 0.0008 OR 8 BASIS pts DOWN to 1.2825

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.6062  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.6505

TURKISH LIRA:  14.80  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.224

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2  IN basis points from TUESDAY at  2.979% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.020  UP 1 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 103.27 DOWN 22   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 68.73 PTS OR .89%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 56.46  POINTS OR 0.40%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN  77.25 PTS OR 1.19% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  DOWN 89.90 PTS OR 1.05%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 335.48 PTS OR 1.38%

WTI Oil price 105.84   12: EST

Brent Oil:  108.62  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  67.83   UP  3 & 1/10       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.972

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0614 UP  .0089   OR UP 89 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2626 UP  .0127or  127 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 129.17 DOWN .00958//YEN UP 96 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2735 DOWN .0098 (CDN dollar UP 98 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 107.96

Brent OIL:  110.36

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.919 DOWN 4 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.008  UP 1  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.73

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE:  66.30 DOWN  4.66 ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP 4.66 ROUBLES/USA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 932.27 PTS OR 2.81%

NASDAQ 100 UP 445.81 PTS OR 3.41%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.17 DOWN 4.08 PTS (13.95%)

GLD: 175.80 UP 1.71 PTS OR 0.98%

SLV/ 21.28 UP .45 PTS OR 2.16%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks SoarTo Best Fed-Hike-Day Performance In 44 Years

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Tl:dr: This was the biggest gain on a Fed day since Dec 2008 (a rate-cut day), but this was the greatest upside-day for the S&P 500 on a Fed Rate-Hike day since Nov 1978!!

And here’s what happened last time the S&P rallied this much on a Fed rate-hike day… (we made new lows)

*  *  *

“Inflation is much too high,” warned Fed Chair Powell in his opening words, in an effort to assure the American people – and the markets – that they are really really serious this time, pinky-swear, about hiking even if the market pukes its guts out… (or not).

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1521930362158559238&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fstocks-bonds-gold-crypto-rip-after-powell-takes-75bps-hike-table&sessionId=bd6a9e21b0a6fb885942dd4b49942b516c0f2964&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

The market did not like that news (stocks fell, yields rose, rate-hike-odds rose)

But then Powell tried to assuage fears of a 75bps hike:

“A 75 basis point increases is not something the committee is actively considering,” but noted that the “next couple of meetings” will be 50bps hikes.

The market loved that news (stocks surged, USD dumped, yield curve steepened with short-end yields plunging)… monkeyhammering all the risk away (VIX crashed to a 24 handle)…

STIRs immediately priced-out the odds of a 75bps hike in June…

Source: Bloomberg

And the rate-hike-trajectory also dropped on Powell’s more dovish tilt…

Source: Bloomberg

The short-end of the yield curve collapsed (2Y -13bps, 30Y -2bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and the yield curve steepened drastically…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably Bloomberg’s Ira Jersey warned that “The market may be interpreting the lack of a 75-bp move incorrectly as ‘dovish’ given the strong rally in the front end of the yield curve. A string of 50-bp hikes, without a 75-bp move, could actually mean a higher terminal rate and over time may not mean much for the short end of the yield curve. There could be an opportunity building in the curve.”

Additionally, Powell warned The Fed could act “expeditiously” – which could easily mean more than three 50bps-hikes are in order if inflation remains high.

10Y Yields reversed once again at 3.00% (exactly where they did in Dec 2018 before Powell folded)…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks went utterly vertical on the ‘lack of 75bps move’ (as the dramatically oversold/over-hedged positioning unwound again)…Yes, the Nasdaq exploded 3.5% higher on the day (from down 1.5% this morning)….

‘That escalated quickly…”

All the sectors shot higher, led by tech and discretionary (but energy was best on the day)…

Source: Bloomberg

…apparently ignoring the fact that they are not at all priced for a series of 50bps hikes…

Source: Bloomberg

The chart above shows what happened after the last FOMC meeting – will we see another melt-up squeeze? This afternoon saw a serious short-squeeze begin…

Source: Bloomberg

So that’s it then… The Fed has the problem in hand and a soft landing is now priced in (and a hard landing, in case we dip again).

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1521930883057557504&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fstocks-bonds-gold-crypto-rip-after-powell-takes-75bps-hike-table&sessionId=bd6a9e21b0a6fb885942dd4b49942b516c0f2964&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

The dollar tumbled during the press conference…

Source: Bloomberg

The Ruble soared to its strongest relative to the USD since Feb 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices soared on the day on the heels of EU embargo headlines – erasing all of Biden’s ‘improvements’ in price…

Finally, Powell admitted that The Fed is useless:

“Our tools don’t really work on supply shocks, our tools work on demand.”

Which could be why Bitcoin quickly ripped up to $40k…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was also bid on his comments…

As hard as Powell tried to rescue his credibility, crypto and gold exposed the lie.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1521930499152830467&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fstocks-bonds-gold-crypto-rip-after-powell-takes-75bps-hike-table&sessionId=bd6a9e21b0a6fb885942dd4b49942b516c0f2964&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

As one veteran trader noted: “it seemed like Powell reverted back to his ‘inflation is transitory’ perspective… good fucking luck with that!”

END

I) /AFTERNOON TRADING/POWELL//RATE HIKE

“Highly Attentive” Fed Unleashes Biggest Rate-Hike Since Bursting The Dot-Com Bubble

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 02:04 PM

Tl;dr:

  • The Fed hiked rates 50bps – as expected. That is the biggest rate-hike since the bursting of the Dot-Com bubble in May 2000.
  • The Fed will ‘taper’ into its QT starting June 1st.
  • The “highly attentive” comment about inflation risks signals a hawkish tone but overall this is not more hawkish than expected.

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting, the short-term interest-rate (STIR) market has adjusted dramatically more hawkish in its outlook for the rest of the year – now pricing-in 11 more rate-hikes (that includes the expectation of 2x 25bps hikes today). But at the same time, the expectations for subsequent easing from what will inevitably create a recession have barely budged…

Source: Bloomberg

Markets have been extremely volatile in the weeks since The Fed meeting (amid endless hawkish jawboning) with the dollar surging almost 5% higher against its fiat peers while bond prices have collapsed. Gold and stocks have been equally pummelled since March 16th, but as is cxlear from the chart below, stocks have been a bloodbath since the post-Fed meltup finished at the end of March)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Treasury curve is screaming Fed Policy Error imminent, having flattened into inversion since the March statement…

Source: Bloomberg

To those claiming The Fed is being too hawkish, bear in mind that The Fed is 1165bps ‘too easy’ based on the Taylor Rule…

Source: Bloomberg

Before today’s statement, the market is considerably more hawkish than the median dots from The Fed through 2022 and then more dovish than The Fed expects to be in 2023 (because The Fed can’t admit it expects to create a recession that needs rate-cuts)

Source: Bloomberg

“the market is pricing in a 100% chance of 150 bps of Fed tightening over the next 3 FOMC meetings and a 52% chance of 175 bps of tightening by Aug 31.”

So expectations are fully priced in for a 50bps hike today BUT the question is what tone is set going forward – for both the rate trajectory and pace of QT – and will the dots catch up to the market once again.

And if you think stocks are pricing-in all this hawkishness, think again (note that after the last Fed meeting, stocks went vertical in a massive hedge-unwind-driven melt-up for two weeks)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Bear Traps’ Larry MacDonald summed up The Fed’s dilemma/farce best:

The Fed went to 50BN a month in September of 2018 and had to stop five minutes later in December this was after promising Wall St economists they were on Auto-pilot all the way up to a 2T reduction. Now, they are going to give it a try at 90B a month in May with back to back 50 bp hikes? Who are they kidding?

It’s the worst start to a year for stocks in decades, consumer savings is down to the bone, GDP prints negative, and the Fed is going to kick off a record tightening cycle? It´s all a show.

And remember, SocGen have warned that The Fed can only hike rates to 1.00% before all hell breaks loose.

So what did The Fed do…

  • *FED RAISES RATES 50 BPS, TO START RUNOFF JUNE 1 AT $47.5B/MTH
  • *FED: RUNOFF PACE TO RISE TO MAXIMUM $95B/MTH AFTER THREE MONTHS
  • *FED SAYS IT IS `HIGHLY ATTENTIVE’ TO INFLATION RISKS
  • *FED EXPECTS `ONGOING’ INCREASES IN RATES WILL BE APPROPRIATE

The ‘highly attentive’ comment is somewhat hawkish but overall, this not more hawkish than consensus.

Finally, we note that this is the first 50bps hike since May 2000 and the first back-to-back FOMC meeting hikes since 2006.

Read the full redline below:

END

Fed lifts interest rates by 1/2 point and to launch sell-off of $9 trillion bond stockpile in June

May 4, 2022 at 2:01 p.m. ET

MarketWatch

Fed to ramp up to $95 billion in bond sales after three months

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised a key interest rate by a half point and reaffirmed a more aggressive strategy to try to subdue the worst outbreak of U.S. inflation in 40 years.

The central bank also said it plans to start selling off its nearly $9 trillion stockpile of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in June.

Initially the Fed plans to sell $47.5 billion a month in assets. After three months the Fed would ramp up to $95 billion a month in asset reductions, a move that could drain liquidity from the money markets for years to come.

The central bank as expected lifts its fed funds rate to a range of 0.75% to 1% in what’s expected to be a series of increases. It’s the second rate hike this year and the biggest since 2000.

The Fed is aiming to push its benchmark short-term rate to 2.5% or even higher by year end after keeping it near zero during most of the pandemic. The bank slashed rates after the viral outbreak in 2020 to shore up a depressed economy.

The Fed’s balance sheet, meanwhile, ballooned to twice its size during the pandemic in a successful effort to bring down long-term interest rates. The goal was to help the economy by making it cheaper for consumers to buy a house or car or for businesses to get a loan.

II)USA data

Usually, the ebullient ADP shows very strong job gains.  Not today

(zerohedge)

ADP Signals Weakest Job Gains In April Since COVID Lockdowns

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 08:21 AM

On the heels of unprecedentedly strong labor indications from the JOLTS data, and the ongoing multi-decade lows in jobless claims, analysts expected ADP to report strong gains in employment for April. However, the gains were disappointing – gainingh only 247k jobs, the lowest since April 2020

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 24th straight month of employment gains – according to ADP – but we note that small businesses saw huge job losses…

Services once again dominated the jobs gains…

“In April, the labor market recovery showed signs of slowing as the economy approaches full employment,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

“While hiring demand remains strong, labor supply shortages caused job gains to soften for both goods producers and services providers. As the labor market tightens, small companies, with fewer than 50 employees, struggle with competition for wages amid increased costs.

Indeed they are – the biggest Small Business job losses since April 2020…

And we are sure The Fed hiking rates will help

end

USA deficits explodes to record territory in March. No wonder Q 1 GDP was negative as trade deficits are negative to GDP

(zerohedge)

US Trade Deficit Explodes To Record High In March

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 08:34 AM

The US trade balance with the rest of the world collapsed to its largest deficit ever in March.

  • Imports rose 10.3% in March to $351.52b from $318.62b in Feb.
  • Exports rose 5.6% in March to $241.72b from $228.82b in Feb.

The gap in goods and services trade grew 22.3% to $109.8 billion, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday (this was even worse than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists which called for a $107.1 billion deficit).

Source: Bloomberg

Ex-Petroleum products, it was even worse…

Obviously this is backward-looking and represents one of the key drivers of Q1’s negative GDP print (net exports subtracted 3.2 percentage points from GDP, government figures showed last week).

Also of note is that the figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

Finally, we point out that Russia’s trade surplus with US surged to 11 year highs as imports rose and exports tumbled

Which may help explain the surge in the Ruble.

end

Services are 70% of GDP and they are screaming staglation as order slow as price inputs surge

(zerohedge)

US Services Surveys Scream Stagflation: Orders Slow As Prices Surge At Record Pace

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 10:05 AM

After the mixed message from Manufacturing surveys (PMI highest since Sept 2021, ISM weakest since Sept 2020) analysts expected the opposite mixed message for the Services surveys (PMI down, ISM up) in April.

  • April US Services PMI final print was 55.6, down from 58.0 in March but higher than the preliminary print of 54.7 for April
  • April ISM Services fell to 57.1 from 58.3 in March (compared to 58.5 expected).

Source: Bloomberg

So – to summarize – ISM sees Manufacturing weaker in April and Services weaker too, while Markit (S&P Global) sees Manufacturing surging in April but Services weaker… and prices are soaring!

One word: Stagflation!

Source: Bloomberg

And employment in the services sector is now contracting (below 50), which means that together with the negative GDP prints, the Fed’s tightening cycle will be very short lived…

The respondents confirm that what comes next is very ugly:

  • housing nuked: “Mortgage rates have skyrocketed. While relatively low from a historical perspective, the new rates — combined with historically high home prices — will temper new home demand at some point over the next 12 months.”
  • labor still nuked: “Talent shortages continue to make it difficult to get work done at companies across many industry sectors. Light industrial labor is in high demand, but supply gaps still exist. Wages continue to rise in nearly all labor categories, contributing to the rise in prices of goods and services.”
  • Economy slumping: “Overall business has softened.”
  • Inflation still rising:  “Continued delays due to supply chain logistics issues; increased pricing across the board.”
  • And most importantly, demand destruction: “Cost pressures beginning to slow demand.”

Elsewhere, The S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 56.0 in April, down from 57.7 in March.

Although slightly slower than the upturn at the end of the first quarter, the rise in overall output was sharp overall. A faster expansion in manufacturing production was offset by softer service growth.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global, said:

“Alongside the acceleration in manufacturing growth recorded by the S&P Global PMI in April, the sustained solid performance of the service sector points to GDP growth returning in the second quarter.

“Although the service sector lost some momentum in April, this merely reflects pay-back from the surge in spending seen at the end of the first quarter, when Omicron-related virus containment measures were eased.

“It’s clear that growth could be even stronger if activity was not still be constrained by supply chain bottlenecks and labor availability issues. Domestic demand remains buoyant among both households and businesses in spite of current inflationary pressures, and exports are being boosted by pent-up pandemic demand as global travel restrictions are eased. Exports of services grew in April at the fastest rate since data were first collected in 2014.

The consequence of demand running ahead of supply is higher prices, with average charges levied for services rising at a sharply increased and unprecedented rate in April following a record increase in firms’ costs. Enjoying strong demand, firms were increasingly able to pass on higher energy, materials and staff costs to customers, indicating an economy that continues to run hot.”

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures intensified further in April. Input prices and output charges increased at the sharpest rates on record.

Material and labor shortages, alongside greater transportation costs drove the rise in prices.

ISM Manufacturing employment stagnant (50), ISM Services employment contracting (<50), ADP employment gains a disaster and GDP negative in Q1… Get back to work Mr.Powell.

.

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iiia) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

DIESEL…

Mike Rowe Says Truckers “Aren’t Buying Putin Price Hike” Spin As Diesel Hits New High

TUESDAY, MAY 03, 2022 – 08:25 PM

Baltimore native Mike Rowe became famous as the Dirty Jobs jobs guy on the Discovery Channel. Now he’s filming the second season of “How America Works” on Fox Bussiness, showcasing the many individuals that work around the clock to keep the US economy humming. 

During Monday’s “Fox and Friends” show, Rowe sat down with Steve Doocy to discuss out-of-control inflation. He said the tuckers he knows aren’t buying the “Putin Price Hike” narrative. 

As the national average for diesel prices at the pump jump to a record high of $5.32 a gallon, Rowe said truckers are sending him pictures and videos of them filling up, spending more than a thousand dollars at a time. 

“I get video almost every day now from people who we featured on ‘Dirty Jobs” and ‘How America Works.’

“They’re just sending me videos of them at the gas pump and some of them are filling up 18-wheelers. And, I’m not kidding you, $1,100, $1,200.

“Most people, all we can think about is the price for us at a relative terms know it’s awful. 

“When you put $1,200 in your gas tank and just six months ago it was costing you $600 or 700, the exponential reality of it is starting to sink in. You just can’t walk that back. It touches every single thing that matters in this country. From food production to transportation … all of it,” Rowe explained. 

Doocy then asked: “Are truckers buying the ‘Putin Price Hike’?” 

Rowe responded by saying, “The ones I know aren’t… A guy said to me the other day, it’s like … falling down the stairs in slow motion. We’re watching it happen. It’s happening in real-time, and it’s not just diesel. It’s not just gasoline …” 

He then explains that the rising cost of energy and fertilizer has resulted in higher food prices.

“But you have to talk about fertilizer too. … There’s no food without fertilizer in this country. The cost of fertilizer is hundreds, hundreds of percent higher than it was. When you combine that with the cost of energy, the average person has now really gotten the memo, but not from the gas pump, from a restaurant, a steak. The cost of a steak is almost two times what it was six, seven months ago.” 

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has launched an information war against the American people to persuade them President Putin was responsible for inflation. 

However, most people aren’t buying the Biden narrative. A new Rasmussen poll revealed, “76% of Republicans think Biden bears most responsibility for higher fuel prices, as do 24% of Democrats and 54% of voters not affiliated with either major party.”

With a little more than six months to the midterm elections, the Biden administration has yet to convince the American people that Putin is responsible for the highest inflation in four decades — this could prove disastrous for Democrats come November

In March, a Quinnipiac University poll revealed that more Americans blame Biden than the Ukraine invasion or corporate greed for the rise in fuel prices. 

Americans understand inflation was ripping higher well before the Ukraine conflict. The Biden got desperate last week by having the Department of Homeland Security announce the creation of the “Disinformation Governance Board” to control narratives combat whatever they deem ‘misinformation’ ahead of the midterm elections. 

And when did the vast majority of this inflation occur? Pre-Ukraine. Hard to dispute that. 

Watch Mike Rowe’s full interview here. 

IIIB) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Worst Ever US Home Affordability Is Just 0.5% Away

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 11:45 AM

A month and a half ago, when mortgage rates were exploding higher with the 30Yr fixed mortgage rate averaging 4.5%, the highest since 2018 and up more than nearly 100bp from the December average of 3.26%, we said that “Housing Affordability Is About To Crash The Most On Record“,  and warned that the mortgage “rates shock” meant housing affordability would be down more than 25% yoy by March – a record decline – with additional downside from higher home prices.

Once again, we were right, and as CNBC reported overnight looking at the latest spike in mortgage rates, which just hit their highest level since 2009…

… and with home prices continuing to experience double-digit gains, all of the major housing markets in the United States are less affordable than they have been historically, and “affordability is near its worst point on record.”

The average rate on the 30-year fixed started this year at 3.29% and hit 5.55% on Monday, according to Mortgage News Daily. Rates will move even higher after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, when markets will get more commentary on the Fed’s drive to curb inflation.

Citing research from Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider, CNBC shows that 95% of the 100 biggest U.S. housing markets are less affordable than their long-term levels. That figure was at 6% at the start of the Covid pandemic. And with thirty-seven markets already less affordable than they have ever been, expect this to soon spread to all markets… before we have another huge market crash just like in 2006.

While home prices did pull back slightly in March, they were still up 19.9% year over year. Compared with February, prices rose 2.3%, the fifth time since the pandemic began when home prices rose more than 2% in a single month. Adding across, prices are up almost 6% in the first three months of the year even as consumers are grappling with rising prices across categories, from real estate to airfare to groceries, and defecating all over Biden’s approval rating in the process.

According to CNBC, homebuying affordability has not been this bad since July 2006, when rates were around 6.75%. Back then, it took 34% of the median income to cover the monthly mortgage payment, including principal and interest, for a home purchased with a 20% down payment.

As of April 21, that payment-to-income ratio had reached 32.5%. Historically, a ratio above 21% has caused the housing market to cool off, with the exception of the last two years. The pandemic has created an anomaly in the housing market, because demand is so high and supply is so low. A relentless flight from liberal cities – that have been turned into bastions of crime – into the suburbs, has only helped to push home prices to the stratosphere.

If rates were to rise just 50 basis points more – which they will – or home prices were to increase just 5% more, home affordability would be the worst on record, according to Black Knight.

What would that mean in practical terms? Well, as of this moment, that monthly housing payment is at a new high, up $552 (an increase of 38%) year to date to $1,809, and up $790 (or 72%) since the onset of the pandemic. It will take just a modest increase to hit new all time highs.

According to CNBC, in reaction to weaker affordability, and in a repeat of what we saw just before the 2007 housing bubble burst, consumers are suddenly turning to adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer a lower interest rate. The ARM share of rate locks from potential homebuyers jumped from 2.5% in December to nearly 8% in March, according to Black Knight. As of last week, that share was more than 9%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

At this point some may ask how how it is possible that demand has yet to fade despite these near record prices. The answer is simple: not enough supply, too much demand, and a surge in purchases ahead of even higher rates.

Tuesday report from the National Association of Realtors found – what else – that home prices continued to surge in virtually every corner of the U.S. during the first quarter even as mortgage rates rose rapidly. Many buyers rushed to lock in purchases in the first quarter before rates climbed even higher, according to real-estate agents.

The median sales price for single-family existing homes was higher in the first quarter compared with a year ago in 181 of the 185 metro areas tracked by the NAR, the association said Tuesday. Nationwide, the median single-family existing-home sales price rose 15.7% in the first quarter from a year ago to $368,200, the NAR said.

The current housing boom has been geographically widespread, with most metro areas in the country posting robust home-price growth in the past two years. The Punta Gorda, Fla., metro area posted the strongest median-price increase in the first quarter, up 34.4% from a year earlier. Following Punta Gorda was the Ocala, Fla., metro area, up 33.8%, and Ogden, Utah, up 30.8%.

The only metro areas to post declines in the first quarter from a year earlier were Cape Girardeau, Mo., where median prices fell 2%, Topeka, Kan., down 1.9%, and Rockford, Ill., down 1%. Prices were unchanged in Bismarck, N.D.

“The housing market remains very active right now,” said Nick Bailey, chief executive of Re/Max LLC, on a Re/Max Holdings Inc. earnings call last week. “Buyers are rushing to beat anticipated mortgage rate hikes.”

Still, economists expect rising mortgage rates to lead to slower home-price growth by the end of the year. Prices can be slow to respond to changes in buyer activity because sellers often wait weeks before dropping their list prices. Some buyers are also less sensitive to rising rates, such as cash buyers or those moving from high-cost markets to more affordable ones. Homes typically go under contract a month or two before the contract closes, so the first-quarter data largely reflects purchase decisions made in late 2021 or the beginning of the first quarter.

On the other hand, the ability for many households to work remotely continues to spur home-buying demand. Millions of millennials are also aging into their prime home-buying years.

end

iv)swamp stories

PROTESTS IN LA RE ROE VS WADE

Cops Attacked, Windows Smashed During ‘Roe V Wade’ Protest In LA

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 10:14 AM

violent group of pro-abortion protesters in Los Angeles threw rocks at police and smashed squad car windows, injuring one police officer in the process.

The protest took place in the Pershing Square area following the leaked US Supreme Court draft opinion which would overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 landmark decision that guarantees the right to abortion at the federal level.

The condition of the officer is unknownand an ambulance was called to the scene.

Video from independent news service RMG News showed a smashed out window on an LAPD cruiser as well as protesters toppling barriers and tagging graffiti outside of the U.S. Courthouse at 350 W. 1st St.

A tactical alert is utilized to ensure resources are available for other calls for service while many resources are dedicated to a particular incident. The alert was deactivated before 11 p.m., Los Angeles Police Department Officer Drake Madison said. –LA Daily News

Footage from Tuesday night reveals “far-left pro-abortion rioters” being corralled by police, who are then “threatened by the mob,” according to journalist Andy Ngo (h/t Summit News).

Interestingly, the Department of Homeland Security had forces present as you can see in the footage below.

end

Hunter’s Laptop: Adam Schiff, CNN, Politico And Daily Beast Sued By Repairman Who Blew Whistle

WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2022 – 10:46 AM

The man who owned the computer repair shop where Hunter Biden abandoned his infamous ‘laptop from hell’ is suing several ‘Russiagate’ all-stars for millions.

John Paul Mac Isaac, who lost his business and endured harassment for 18 months after being falsely accused of peddling Russian disinformation, is suing Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), along with news outlets CNN, The Daily Beast and Politico.Photo: James Keivom

“After fighting to reveal the truth, all I want now is for the rest of the country to know that there was a collective and orchestrated effort by social and mainstream media to block a real story with real consequences for the nation,” the 45-year-old Mac Isaac told the New York Post.

The lawsuit cites a CNN interview two days after The Post‘s bombshell report in which he claims Schiff defamed him by citing – without evidence – that he believed the “Kremlin” was behind a smear of the Bidens.

“Well we know that this whole smear on Joe Biden comes from the Kremlin. That’s been clear for well over a year now that they’ve been pushing this false narrative about the Vice President and his son,” Schiff told host Wolf Blitzer.

“This was collusion led by 51 former pillars in the intelligence community and backed by words and actions of a politically motivated DOJ and FBI,” he continued, ostensibly referring to an October 19, 2020 Politico article by Natasha Bertrand in which more than 50 former senior intelligence officials say the laptop disclosure “has all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.”

“I want this lawsuit to reveal that collusion and more importantly, who gave the marching orders,” he continued.

Mac Isaac came to legally own the laptop after Biden’s son Hunter dropped it off at his store for repairs in April 2019 and never came back. The material on the laptop has raised serious questions about what Biden knew of his son’s overseas business deals, during which he and the president’s brother, Jim Biden, often invoked his powerful name. 

After handing over a copy of the laptop’s hard drive to the FBI in December 2019, eight months later Mac Isaac alerted then-President Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who provided a copy of the hard drive to The Post. -NY Post

Censorship of the Hunter Biden laptop scandal is perhaps the most brazen case of election interference, after big tech platforms Twitter and Facebook moved to censor it in the crucial weeks before the 2020 US election, while Schiff and others were calling it Russian disinformation.

“Twitter initially labeled my action hacking, so for the first day after my information was leaked, I was bombarded with hate mail and death threats revolving around the idea that I was a hacker, a thief and a criminal,” said Mac Isaac, who added that Schiff “has some explaining to do.”

“Without any intel, the head of the intel committee decided to share with CNN and its viewers a complete and utter lie,” he continued. “A lie issued in the protection of a preferred presidential candidate.

According to Mac Issac, he’s endured false accusations of being a Russian spy.

“The fight to get to the bottom of who told everyone this was Russian disinformation is far more important for the nation than me clearing my name,” he said.

Mac Isaac was forced to shut down his Delaware repair shop after it was pelted with ‘vegetables, eggs and dog excrement,’ after which he moved to Colorado to hide for a year.

“CNN’s broadcast of the false statement accuses the Plaintiff of committing an infamous crime, i.e., treason by working with the Russians to commit a crime against the United States of America by attempting to undermine American democracy and the 2020 Presidential election,” reads the suit, which similarly accuses the Daily Beast and Politico of peddling disinformation about the case.

Damning Hunter Biden Emails Link Him Directly To Company Supplying Russia With Drones Used To Bomb Ukraine – enVolve

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:02 AM (33 minutes ago)
to

Slimy hands of a corrupt group.

Cheers
Robert

The King Report (including swamp stories)

@townhallcom: BIDEN: “Just a few days ago the Wall Street Journal quotes a young *Hungarian* fighter saying, and I quote, ‘without the javelins, it would have been very hard to stop the enemy pushing ahead.'”   https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1521570625042669568
     BIDEN: “Before Russia attacked, we made sure Russia had javelins and other weapons to strengthen their defenses so Ukraine was ready for whatever happened.”
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1521569197549105152
 
Former Fed Vice Chair Quarles Says U.S. Is Likely to Suffer Recession
Given the intensity of inflation, the degree to which unemployment has been driven down — to bring that back into an equilibrium, it’s unlikely the Fed is going to be able to manage that to a soft landing,”…
    “Had clarity been provided (Biden’s Fed CEO nominee), I think the Fed would have acted earlier,” Quarles said. But Biden “didn’t do that for a number of months,” he said…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/former-fed-vice-chair-quarles-172351248.html
 
Today – The Fed is expected to hike its funds rate 50bps.  The only question is Fed guidance regarding future rate hikes and the details as to how the Fed will reduce its balance sheet.  The last Fed meeting, which was expected to be hawkish, traders bought stuff into the FOMC Communique and Powell’s presser on the belief that a relief rally would appear.  The rally reversed into a tumble when Powell was more hawkish than expected.  The action this week suggests that operators and traders are again playing for a relief rally after the Fed announces the expected 50bp rate hike.
 
Powell’s press conference will again be a key factor for the market.  The odds that he will be very hawkish are lower than last time.  However, Jerome is likely to indicate that the Fed will hike rates in accordance with market expectations: 50 bps in both June and July.
 
The S&P 500 Index high on Tuesday was 4200.10.  Bulls must push the S&P appreciably above this level to engender trader buying.  ESMs are +7.75 & USMs are -10/32 at 21:05 ET.
 
Expected earnings: CVS 2.15, YUM 1.08, MAR .92, EMR 1.18, MET 1.65, EBAY 1.04, APA 2.11
 
Expected economic data: FOMC Communique 14:00 ET, Powell Presser 14:30 ET; ADP Employment Change 385k; March Trade -$107.1B; April S&P US Services PMI 54.7; April ISM Services Index 58.5
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4375; 100-day MA: 4482; 150-day MA: 4507; 200-day MA: 4492
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,062; 100-day MA: 34,768; 150-day MA: 34,960; 200-day MA: 34,969
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 5125.85 triggers a buy signal
HourlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4547.45 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4529.25 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4117.17 triggers a sell signal
 
Politico: Supreme Court has voted to overturn abortion rights, draft opinion shows
“We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled,” Justice Alito writes in an initial majority draft circulated inside the court.  https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473
 
Chief Justice Roberts:  Although the document described in yesterday’s reports is authentic, it does not represent a decision by the Court or the final position of any member on the issues in the case… I have directed the marshal of the court to launch an investigation into the source of the leak.
https://twitter.com/SCOTUSblog/status/1521509850181742592/photo/1
 
DeSantis calls Supreme Court leak a ‘judicial insurrection’
‘You want to talk about an insurrection – that’s a judicial insurrection,’ GOP governor says
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/desantis-supreme-court-leak-judicial-insurrection
 
@TheMikelCrump: Elizabeth Warren calls for Insurrection on the Supreme Court in newly released video.  Will Federal Authorities be giving Elizabeth Warren a visit for inciting an insurrection?
https://twitter.com/TheMikelCrump/status/1521631847331020801
 
Biden statement on purported SCOTUS Roe v. Wade recission: Roe has been the law of the land for almost fifty years, and basic fairness and the stability of our law demand that it not be overturned… It will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this November…”  (But it’s okay to void Amendments?) https://twitter.com/charliespiering/status/1521484555005349889/photo/1
 
@tomselliott: Biden on the possibility of states setting their own abortion laws: “It’s the main reason I worked so hard to keep Bork off the court…”    https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1521519910463102977
 
Biden brutalized over ‘incoherent’ and ‘vile’ claim that Roe is in line with ‘all basic mainstream religions’ – ‘Please don’t ever tell me that Biden is a devout Catholic…What a joke’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-brutalized-over-incoherent-vile-claim-roe-line-all-basic-mainstream-religions
 
@DanODonnellShow: Major flub by Biden, who just moments ago talked about “the decision to abort a child.” If it is a child, then the “decision to abort” is actually murder and thus illegal. Unsurprisingly, his handlers scurried him away from reporters immediately after he said this.
https://twitter.com/DanODonnellShow/status/1521521708926185473
 
@KatiePavlich: Biden this morning: “At the federal level, we will need more pro-choice Senators and a pro-choice majority in the House to adopt legislation that codifies Roe.” This is what the leak is about.
    @JackPosobiec: It wasn’t a leak it was an operation
 
Sen. Chuck Schumer: “Make no mistake, the blame for this decision falls squarely on Republican senators… who spent years pushing extremist justices … we will fight it all the way… Every Republican senator who supported Senator McConnell and voted for Trump justices, pretending that this day would never come, will now have to explain themselves to the American people…Every American is going to see on which side every senator stands… Elections this November will have consequences… https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1521498755702403073
 
Top Democrat: Abortion now the “central choice” in midterms http://hill.cm/BNOpozI
 
@davidharsanyi: In 1982 Joe Biden proposed a constitutional amendment that would overturn Roe v. Wade and allow states to choose their own policies on abortion.
    NYT: When Joe Biden Voted to Let States Overturn Roe v. Wade    March 29, 2019
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/us/politics/biden-abortion-rights.html
 
Dem @SenMarkey: A stolen, illegitimate, and far-right Supreme Court majority appears set to destroy the right to abortion, an essential right which protects the health, safety, and freedom of millions of Americans. There is no other recourse. We must expand the court. (Markey undermining democracy)
 
The leaked SCOTUS draft, DOES NOT BAN ABORTION!  It says states must legislate abortion.
 
(W Bush Press Sec) @AriFleischer: This leak is destructive. The leaker must think their position on abortion is so important it’s worth destroying trust inside the CourtWho there will trust each other now? This is an insurrection against the court.
 
Democrats condemn Supreme Court abortion draft as ‘abomination,’ urge Congress to codify Roe v Wade – Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer accused the Supreme Court of having ‘ripped up the Constitution’ if the ruling follows this leaked unconfirmed draft on abortion (Sounds like insurrection)
     Several of these conservative Justices, who are in no way accountable to the American people, have lied to the U.S. Senate, ripped up the Constitution and defiled both precedent and the Supreme Court’s reputation…” they continued… (Clearly undermining democracy and inciting violence & insurrection)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrats-condemn-supreme-court-abortion-draft-as-abomination-urge-congress-to-codify-roe-v-wade
 
@RNCResearch: Democrat Rep. Pramila Jayapal: “These [Supreme Court] justices are acting like this is somehow something that they have the right to changeThey do not have the right.” (Yes, they do!)
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1521575793071112192
 
How come when Dems lose, they cast vitriolic aspirations, undermine democracy, instigate violence/ insurrection, and insist that rules, laws, and the Constitution should be changed to codify their ideals?
 
@ElectionWiz: I’m doubtful that overturning Roe v. Wade will cause a massive blowback in the Midterms. As @Peoples_Pundit’s polling shows, a significant number of “pro-choice” voters do not oppose state-level restrictions and more than 1/5th of “pro-choice” voters support the heartbeat bills.
    Moreover, 1/3rd of pro-choice voters support banning abortion after “Pain” and 54.6% support banning late-term abortion in the final 3 months… Upshot: The label “pro choice” has evolved to mean something different than unfettered, on-demand abortionMaybe it’s because the science evolved…
https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1521475923681460226
 
@RNCResearch: MSNBC: 80 percent of Americans believe third-trimester abortions should be illegal. (65% believe second-trimester abortions should be illegal)
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1521529730113191939
 
A recent survey by the Wall Street Journal found more Americans support 15-week bans on abortion, than oppose it, and a Marist poll from January found 71% of Americans support some form of restrictions on abortion.  https://www.foxnews.com/media/nbcs-alcindor-roe-overturned-poor-women-will-be-forced-have-pregnancies-turn-into-children
 
Jonathan Turley: “This was a malicious act… The Supreme Court will never be the sameThis is the worst type of attack on the integrity of the Supreme Court that you could launch…” This leak with cause lasting damage to the Court, which has long relied on the integrity of members and clerks to preserve institutional secrecy and integrityThe fact that some are praising this leak shows how utterly craven we have become in our politics. There appears no ethical rule or institutional interest that can withstand this age of rage
    Last December, Justice Sotomayor shocked many court watchers during the oral argument in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization when she complained of the “stench of politics” pervading the case. The stench became overwhelming on Monday night. (Sotomayor story at link)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2022/05/03/abortion-leak-hits-supreme-court-political-stench/9624328002/
    Notably, Justice Sotomayor shocked many in calling upon students to campaign against abortion laws: “I can’t change Texas’s law, but you can and everyone else who may or may not like it can go out there and be lobbying forces in changing laws that you don’t like.”
 
@MattWolking: A person called Amit Jain clerks for Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor.  As a Yale student, Jain blasted Yale for supporting Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination. Jain was quoted in a 2017 Politico piece by Josh Gerstein (see link). Today, Gerstein published the draft SCOTUS opinion on Roe. https://www.politico.com/blogs/under-the-radar/2017/02/trump-travel-ban-detention-court-235246
     If it is proven that Sotomayor’s office was behind the leak — and that’s still an if — it wouldn’t be the first time this year her office appeared to be behind a political leak. (NPR story at link)
https://www.npr.org/2022/01/18/1073428376/supreme-court-justices-arent-scorpions-but-not-happy-campers-either
 
@SCOTUSblog: It’s impossible to overstate the earthquake this will cause inside the Court, in terms of the destruction of trust among the Justices and staff
 
@ChadPergram: Dem NM Sen Heinrich on SCOTUS leak: I think it will be a pivotal moment in the history of the court and one where they really lose the confidence of the American people
 
GOP @SenTomCotton: The Supreme Court & the DOJ must get to the bottom of this leak immediately using every investigative tool necessary. (If not an inside leak, it could be a computer hacking.)
 
GOP Sen. @marcorubio: The next time you hear the far left preaching about how they are fighting to preserve our Republic’s institutions & norms remember how they leaked a Supreme Court opinion in an attempt to intimidate the justices on abortion
 
Sen. Ted Cruz: “This deliberate effort to politicize the Court is so dangerous and I would point out that these left-wing organizations funded by … dark money organizations like Arabella Advisors … fund millions into putting leftists on Courts.”  https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1521522624299520000
 
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: Given the apparently coordinated nature of this hit on the Court, I certainly hope every Democrat Senator is ready to answer whether they saw the opinion before Politico published it, and if they know who leaker is.
 
McConnell: “Whoever committed this lawless act knew exactly what it could bring about… Everybody knows what kind of climate the far left is trying to fuel.”  https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1521501549108867072
 
@LeaderMcConnell: Liberals want to rip the blindfold off Lady Justice… Never in modern history has an internal draft been leaked to the public while the justices were still deciding a case… Whoever committed this lawless act knew exactly what it could bring about.”
https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1521516062424113152
 
@PhilipWegmann: “How interesting that two weeks ago they refused to define a ‘woman,'” Sen. @MarshaBlackburn tells me, “And now today the only thing they want to talk about is protecting a ‘woman’s right to choose.'”
 
@MarkPaoletta: Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer stood on the steps of the Supreme Court in March 2020 directly threatening Justices Kavanaugh and Gorsuch as the Court heard oral argument on an abortion case.  Sen Schumer said: “I want to tell you Gorsuch. I want to tell you Kavanaugh. You have released the whirlwind and you will pay the priceYou won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions.”  “Less than a year earlier, @SenWhitehouse, the lead Senate sponsor of this proposed legislation, filed an amicus brief in a 2nd Amendment case pending at the Supreme Court, where he threatened that the Court better drop the case or face the consequences.”
 
@TomFitton: Tonight’s leak of the Roe opinion shows why Schumer should have been prosecuted for his threats against Supreme Court justices on abortion.
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2020/03/04/chuck-schumer-issues-a-threat-against-kavanuagh-gorsuch-you-will-pay-a-price-n2563181
     The leak of the Supreme Court draft opinion on Roe is a dangerous obstruction of justice. And it could very well lead to intimidation and violence directed at Supreme Court justices. Which, I suspect, is the point of the criminal leak.
 
@seanmdav: This appears to be a brazen, nuclear stunt by a left-wing Justice or clerk designed to bully justices into disregarding their duty and rubber-stamping abortion.  And John Roberts, this insanity is on you. This type of bullying is instigated because of your cowardice on Obamacare.
    If walking through a door at the Capitol held open by police is sedition, what happened tonight is treason that could lead to violent attacks on justices themselves. Everyone involved—esp. those calling to “burn this place down”—needs to be investigated, tried, and convicted.
 
@ValerioCNN: Roberts does NOT want to completely overturn Roe v Wade, meaning he apparently would be dissenting from Alito’s draft opinion, likely w the court’s 3 liberals, sources tell CNN.  Roberts is willing, however, to uphold MS law banning abortion at 15 weeks, CNN learned.
 
John Roberts’ Cowardice on Obamacare Is Why the Left Thinks It Can Bully and Extort SCOTUS Previous public pressure campaigns have worked in swaying justices in other highly political cases, with Chief Justice John Roberts being the most notable…
   The faulty legal reasoning was not Roberts’ original position on the matter. According to “The Chief,” a book written by longtime SCOTUS reporter Joan Biskupic, Roberts initially had sided with his conservative colleagues in striking down Obamacare, “on the grounds that it went beyond Congress’s power to regulate interstate commerce.”…
    The book seemingly confirms reporting from CBS News’ Jan Crawford, who in her 2012 story of Roberts’ Obamacare flip-flop noted how the chief justice “pays attention to media coverage” and “is sensitive to how the court is perceived by the public.”…
    Roberts’ spinelessness in the 2012 ACA decision was not only unconstitutional garbage, but it also revealed to the neo-Marxist left that the court can be influenced in high-profile cases if there’s enough public outcry waiting in the wings…
https://thefederalist.com/2022/05/03/john-roberts-cowardice-on-obamacare-is-why-the-left-thinks-it-can-bully-and-extort-scotus/
 
@DLoesch: The people who were advocating for forced government virus vaccines just last week are now back to “my body my choice.”
 
@zackbeauchamp: This is what it looks like when institutions break down’
 
PHOTO: Hillary Clinton Maskless at Met Gala as Masked Black Staffer Attends Her Gown
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/05/02/hillary-clinton-maskless-at-met-gala-as-masked-black-staffer-attends-her-gown/
 
@jonostrower: The American birthright to “ignore” politics is a bizarre one, born from incredible comfort. They avoid it, bury their heads, change the channel, mute the feed, turn the page, stay at home on Election Day — it always catches up with you. No freedom without participation.
 
HILL-ARIOUS HYPOCRISY: Critics called the image a perfect encapsulation of elitist privilege.
The photo depicted Clinton walking the red carpet at the celebrity-studded event in a red ball gown… all smiles, posing for the camera without wearing a mask, while a masked African American gentleman – who appeared to be one of the event’s staff – doted on her, adjusting her dress. Critics slammed the image as the perfect encapsulation of elitist privilege… https://fxn.ws/3kDouyU

END

 

Let us close today with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter  and another interview Paul Roberts

Provoking Nuclear War with Russia – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

By Greg Hunter On May 3, 2022 In Political AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts (PCR), former Assistant Treasury Secretary and international award-winning journalist, is warning that NATO and the U.S. is deliberately provoking nuclear war with Russia in Ukraine.  PCR explains, “In the middle of a serious situation that can already go out of control, we are adding new provocations.  It is clear Washington intends to push these provocations to the hilt.  In a normal sane world, everyone would understand that it is recklessly irresponsible to put Finland and Sweden in NATO, particularly at the present time. . . . The Russians have a high tolerance for provocations and, therefore, the provocations that the West commits never have any costs, and they increase in number and severity.  At some point, these provocations are just too much to stand, and that’s where you cross the line and the situation becomes nuclear. . . . How much can you provoke them and they let loose and it hits the fan?  I see everything Washington doing is designed to further provoke Russia.”

PCR says people do not realize how dangerous the Biden/Obama administration policy is regarding Russia.  This sort of provocation of Russia has simply never happened before.  PCR says, “This strikes me as dangerously irresponsible.  No other President in our history has ever done that.  Nobody in the cold war provoked Russia.  It just was not done, you avoided that.  You tried to reach reasonable understanding as Kennedy achieved with Khrushchev and, later, what Reagan achieved with Gorbachev.  So, what we are witnessing is unprecedented.  That’s why it’s dangerous.  Washington is doing everything it can think of to provoke Russia.”

In closing, PCR says, “At some point, lightning is going to strike someone in the Kremlin, and they are going to say we are at war and this is World War III.  It’s got to happen.  Why isn’t it World War III?  We are sending another $33 billion to Ukraine.”

We are stumbling toward nuclear war.  PCR says, “That’s the avenue we are traveling on, and it is not possible to discuss it except to blame it on Putin.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with award-winning journalist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts for 5.03.22. (There is much more in the 55 min. interview.)

(

After the Interview:

To see top notch analysis and journalism on a regular basis, go to PaulCraigRoberts.org.  All the articles are free, and PCR is a prolific writer.

See you on THURSDAY 

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