MAY 19/GOLD CLOSED UP $24.20 TO $1841.95//SILVER CLOSED UP 34 CENTS TO $21.89//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $27.05 TO $938.90//PALLADIUM CLOSE UP $7.65 TO $2015.25//COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY RISES BY A HUGE QUEUE JUMP TO 25,400 OZ: NEW STANDING 19.079 TONNES//SILVER ALSO INCREASES BY 40,000 OZ: NEW STANDING 27.95 MILLION OZ//SEEMS THAT PORTUGAL HAS 1/2 THEIR OFFICIAL RESERVES AT THE BANK OF ENGLAND AND THAT GOLD MAY BE COMPROMISED//COVID UPDATES RE THE GLOBE//VACCINE INJURIES/VACCINE MANDATE//5 COUNTRIES NOW HAVE CASES OF MONKEY POX//QUEBEC THINKS THAT THEY HAVE 27 CASES//BRIT MISERY INDEX WORST SINCE MARG. THATCHER//EUROPE AUTO SALES DOWN 20% IN APRIL//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE: MORE AZOVS SURRENDER//EXISTING HOME SALES PLUMMET TO LEVELS LAST SEEN TWO YEARS AGO//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

May 19, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1841.95 UP $24.20

SILVER: $21.89 UP  $.34

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1843.50

SILVER: $21.94

Bitcoin morning price:  $29,439 UP 265

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $30,113 UP 939

Platinum price: closing UP $27.05 to $965.95

Palladium price; closing UP $7.65  at $2015.25

END

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

comex notices percentage of JPMorgan notices filed:  152/158

EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: MAY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,815.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/18/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 05/20/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 70
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4
661 C JP MORGAN 152
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 2
905 C ADM 77


TOTAL: 158 158
MONTH TO DATE: 5,830


NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT 158  NOTICE(S) FOR 15,800 OZ  (0.4914  TONNES)

total notices so far:  5830 contracts for 583,000. oz (18.1337 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

34 NOTICE(S) FILED 170,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  5153  :  for 25,765,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $24.20

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.07 TONNES FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 34 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

AT THE SLV.: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.892 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 563.193 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED  511 CONTRACTS TO 145,069   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND  THE GOOD GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY  $0.04 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.04) AND WE ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SILVER LONGS AS THEY REMAIN FIRM IN THEIR BELIEF OF A SILVER FAILURE AS WE HAD A NET GAIN OF 977 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 30.170 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 40,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP   //NEW STANDING 27,950,000 MILLION OZ/ //  V)    GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -24

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 13 days, total 16,657,  contracts:  83.285 million oz  OR 6.406 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1351CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 83.285 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 83.285 MILLION OZ//INCREASING AGAIN

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 511 WITH OUR  $0.04 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDENESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 442 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY. OF 30.170 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 40,000  OZ QUEUE. JUMP //NEW STANDING 27.950 MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 953 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 4.765 MILLION  OZ WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 34  NOTICE FILED TODAY FOR  170,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A GOOD SIZED 4598 CONTRACTS  TO 551,158 AND FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  –128 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.25//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GIGANTIC SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //JUST SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR STUPID SPECULATORS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 5.353 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY”S QUEUE JUMP OF 25,400 OZ//NEW STANDING 19.079 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF   $2.25 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 10,655  OI CONTRACTS (33.141 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A WHOPPING SIZED  15,253 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 551,158

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,655, WITH 4598 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 15,253 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,783 CONTRACTS OR 33.539 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (15,253) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (4598,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  10,655 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY. AT 5.353 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 25,400 OZ//NEW STANDING 19.079 ///  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING //.,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX  OI. GAIN 5) GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

63,133 CONTRACTS OR 6,313,300 OR 196.37  TONNES 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4856 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 196.37 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  196.37/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  196.37 TONNES INITIAL// INCREASING AGAIN

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 511 CONTRACT OI TO 144,534 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 442 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 442  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF  511 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 442 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF953 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.765 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.04 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.99 PTS OR 0.36%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 523.60 PTS OR 2.54%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 508.36 OR 1.89%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.66%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6,7505    /Oil DOWN TO 108.07dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 108.00 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7505 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7622: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4598 CONTRACTS TO 551,158 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS FAIR  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  LOSS OF $2.25 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED EFP (15,253 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ARE CAUGHT. THE COMMERCIALS WILL SLAUGHTER THESE GUYS WHEN THEY THINK THE TIME IS RIGHT

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  WHOPPER SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 15,253 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 JUNE :15,253 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  15,253 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  VERY STRONG SIZED  TOTAL OF 10,655 CONTRACTS IN THAT 15,253 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 4598  CONTRACTS..AND YET  THE STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $2.25.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY   (19.079),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 19.079 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $2.25) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN  OF 33.539 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (19.079 TONNES)

WE HAD XX CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10,783 CONTRACTS OR 1,078,300  OZ OR 33.539

 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 162,967/// poor

Confirmed volume yesterday:167,076 contracts  poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAY ’22 COMEX GOLD //MAY 19

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in ozCOMEX COULD NOTPROVIDE  INVENTORY MOVEMENTS TODAY
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznilOZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in ozCOMEX COULD NOT PROVIDE INVENTORY MOVEMENTS TODAY
No of oz served (contracts) today158  notice(s)15,800 OZ0.4914 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)304 contracts 30400 oz0.9455 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month5830 notices583,000 OZ18.1337 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits  XX

total dealer deposit  XX   oz//

No dealer withdrawals

1 customer deposit

i

total deposits: XXX oz

XX customer withdrawals:

total withdrawal: XXX oz

ADJUSTMENTS:   

a) JPM: 

XX

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.

For the front month of MAY we have an  oi of 462 contracts having LOST ONLY 31 contracts

We had 285 notices filed on WEDNESDAY, so we gained 254 contracts or  AN ADDITIONAL 25,400 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of May.

June saw a loss of 21,596 contracts down to 217,598 contracts 

July has a GAIN OF 12 OI to stand at 335

August has a gain of 16M851 contracts up to 274,525 contracts

We had 158 notice(s) filed today for  15,800 oz FOR THE MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 158 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  152 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5830) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAY 462  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  158 x 100 oz per contract equals 613,400 OZ  OR 19.079 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non  active month of MAY. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (5830) x 100 oz+   (462)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (158} x 100 oz} which equals 613,400 oz standing OR 19.079 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of MAY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  19.079 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A MAY ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,026,795.134 oz                             

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  35,793,598.694 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 17,812,062.336  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,961,536.365 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,948,662.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MAY 19

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer InventoryXXX  oz COMEX COULD NOT PROVIDE THIS DATA TODAY
Deposits to the Dealer InventorynilOZ
Deposits to the Customer InventoryCOMEX COULD NOT PROVIDE
No of oz served today (contracts)34CONTRACT(S)170,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)437 contracts (2,185,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)5153 contracts 25,765,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i) zero dealer deposits  
And now for the wild silver comex results

total dealer deposits:  nXX     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have XX deposits into the customer account

total deposit:  XXX    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 176.729 million oz/339.387 million =52.12% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: XX

total withdrawal XX     oz

X adjustments:  

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 80.674 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 339.387 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI: 471 HAVING LOST 89 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 97 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY

SO WE GAINED 8   CONTRACTS OR A QUEUE JUMP OF 40,000 OZ

JUNE HAD A GAIN OF 6 TO STAND AT 1549

JULY HAD A GAIN OF 139 CONTRACTS UP TO 113,483 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 34 for 170,000 oz

Comex volumes: 34,067// est. volume today//   poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 43,461 contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5153 x 5,000 oz = 25,765,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(471) and the number of notices served upon today 34  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAY./2022 contract month: 5153 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (471)  – number of notices served upon today (34) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates 27,950,000 oz. .

We GAINED 8 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 40,000 OZ will   stand for delivery at the comex

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.07 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.40:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.28 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.89 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD DOWN $16.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.8 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.82 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.99 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.62 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.65 TONNES

MAY 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.90 TONNES

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.98 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.00 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.95: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.98 TONNES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 \TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.20: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1094.55 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD UP $20.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095,72 TONNES

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.77 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095.72 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.49 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.60//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.23 TONNES

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES 

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT IF 6.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.36 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $11.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.44 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A  DEPOSIT OF 11.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.42 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $26.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 //A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1090.49 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1049.21 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL  1.892 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 17/WITH SILVER UP $.22 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.508 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.546 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.593 MILLION OZ//

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ/

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

May 11/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.487 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

MAY 10.//WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .93 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .851 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.900 MILLION OZ

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.877 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 554,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.171 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29//WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.308 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.385 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.033 MILLION OZ

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS : STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 3.508 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.449 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.955 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .461 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY…//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.986 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.447 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS : A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.676 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 831,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

INVENTORY TONIGHT RESTS AT 563.193 MILLION OZ/

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

The Fed Has Destroyed Our Savings

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 01:20 PM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

When I was about seven or eight years old, I remember my mom taking me to the bank to open a savings account. She explained that if I put some of my allowance in savings, that money would grow over time.

Well, that doesn’t work anymore.

In fact, if you put your money in a savings account, you’ll end up with less than you started with – at least in terms of real purchasing power.

The last time a cash savings account yielded enough interest income to beat inflation was in 2007.

This provides yet another example of how Federal Reserve monetary policy creates misallocations and distortions in the economy.

Looking closely at the chart, you’ll notice that savings yields fall below the inflation level when the Fed engages in loose monetary policy.

The first dip below the inflation level is in 2002 — in the wake of the bursting dot-com bubble. In 2001, the Fed began pushing interest rates down. It started at 6% in January 2001 and by January 2002, rates were pegged at 1.25%.

We see the next plunge in savings yields in 2008, as the Fed dropped rates to zero and launched quantitative easing in response to the Great Recession.

Since then, savings have never recovered. Cash accounts failed to generate enough income to beat inflation even during the “low inflation” years after the financial crisis.

I often talk about the Federal Reserve creating “misallocations” in the economy. This is one example. Because it is impossible for people to generate a real return simply by sticking money in a savings account, they are forced to chase yield with more risky investments. In this day and age, you can’t put money in the bank and expect to retire in 30 years. You have to wade into the stock market, real estate, or other investments that come with more risk.

It’s not so much that risky investments are bad. The problem is that people are forced to take risks they wouldn’t otherwise take. Artificially low interest rates, incentivize risk-taking behavior.

Looking at the bigger picture, this incentivization of risk contributes to asset bubbles – that eventually pop.

One way to protect your wealth over time is to buy gold. Gold doesn’t generate yield, but it also doesn’t tend to lose purchasing power as the dollar devalues over time. For instance, an ounce of gold bought a nice suit 100 years ago. Today, an ounce of gold will still buy a nice suit.

And gold doesn’t carry a high level of risk. It is a physical asset you can hold in your hand. It is also liquid, meaning you can convert it into dollars quickly should the need arise.

One thing is clear – sticking dollars in the bank isn’t a good investment strategy anymore — not while we have a central bank content to artificially manipulate interest rates and devalue the dollar.

2.LAWRIE WILLIAMS//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS/

Von Greyerz: Gold As ‘Cheap’ Today As In 1971

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

“Specie (gold and silver coin) is the most perfect medium because it will preserve its own level, because having intrinsic and universal value, it can never die in our hands, and it is the surest resource of reliance in time of war.” 

– Thomas Jefferson

Since no current President or Prime Minister nor any Central Bank Chairman understands what money is or the relevance of gold, we turn above back to history and Thomas Jefferson, America’s third president for a proper definition.

Jefferson also understood that “Paper is Poverty, It is only the Ghost of Money, and not Money itself.”

As the world economy goes towards an inflationary depression exacerbated not only by epic debts and deficits but now also by war, the significance of gold takes on a whole different dimension.

So let’s dissect Jefferson’s statement:

“(GOLD) Will preserve its own level”

Gold is Constant Purchasing PowerAs such, gold doesn’t go up in real terms. An ounce of gold today buys a good suit for a man just like it did in Roman times.

The graph below shows gold as constant purchasing power at the 100 line whilst all the currencies are crashing to the bottom.

All currencies are continuing to lose value against real money although it never takes place in a straight line. With higher interest rates & inflation, higher deficits & debts, poverty, cost of wars and increasing pressures in the financial system, the currency debasement will now accelerate.

Gold is not an investment. Gold is eternal money. As such gold maintains its REAL value whereas paper money loses all its value over time. For 5000 years gold has outlived all other forms of money including paper money.

We must remember that every paper currency in history has gone to ZERO, with no exception. The current monetary system is currently taking its last breaths. With the dollar and most currencies having lost 99% since the Fed was founded in 1913  and 98% since Nixon closed the Gold Window in 1971, it is guaranteed that the remaining 1-2% will be lost in the next few years.

But as I often point out, a loss of the remaining 1-2% means a 100% fall from today.

Anyone who doesn’t understand that is guaranteed to lose all his paper wealth within the next 5-10 years and possibly sooner.

“Intrinsic and universal value, it can never die in our hands” 

Throughout history, Gold has never and will never become worthless. Gold is nature’s money and eternal.

Crypto currencies have for many become a religion or cult. For the ones who got in early, there were spectacular gains to be made. I do see that the blockchain could be useful technology but it could never be real money.

So cryptos have nothing to do with real money – gold. Also, they do not serve as a true form of wealth preservation. Bitcoin halving and Luna “dying in investors’ hands” and crashing to zero is certainly not conducive to protecting your wealth.

I am sure that central banks around the world will introduce Central Bank Digital Currencies – CBDCs. But these new currencies are just another form of Fiat money. As such they can and will be created in unlimited amounts and lose most of their value over time just like paper money. The one advantage for governments is of course the ability to track all transactions in their desire to control us all in a dystopian 1984 scenario.

But totalitarian societies do not survive since they are both against the laws of nature and human nature. Nevertheless they can create a very unpleasant period for many people.

The WEF’s (World Economic Forum) objective to create a society in which everybody will be poor and happy is total nonsense which would fail miserably just as a totalitarian society.

Yes, the WEF has a lot of billionaires and political leaders who love mixing with each other under the command of their leader Klaus Schwab, also a billionaire.

But the WEF will collapse as the billionaires lose most of their wealth and the Trudeaus of this world are thrown out in the greatest wealth transfer in history.

“Surest resource of reliance in time of war”

In every crisis in history, gold has always been money, both for nations and individuals. Since gold is universal money, it is the best medium of exchange for people fleeing from a war torn country. Since wars also often produce inflation and debasement of paper money, gold is the “surest resource” and is accepted in all countries.

So why is gold not going up and why don’t more people buy gold if it is so cheap?

I get these questions regularly.

All the ingredients are certainly in place for gold to go up:

INFLATION

Inflation is increasing rapidly and most certainly soon reaching into the teens in many countries.

Having experienced inflation in the 1970s in the UK, I know how quickly it can accelerate. Between 1974 and 1981 UK inflation stayed above 10%,  peaking at 24%. The average during that period was around 15%.

At an annual inflation rate of 15%, prices double every 5 years.  

I would be surprised if inflation in many countries in the West doesn’t reach the 15% level.

Commodity Shortages

There is a global shortage of commodities. Prices already started to rise in April 2020. The GSCI Commodity Index has gone up 232% since April 2020. Since the Ukrainian crisis started on February 20 this year, commodity prices are up 18%. The UN Food Agency stated already in the autumn of 2021 that the situation of food shortages was catastrophic and that was before the cut off of major supplies from Ukraine and Russia.

Growth of Global Debt & Money Supply

Global debt is growing exponentially and has trebled in this century. Growth in debt and money supply above GDP growth has over time a direct impact on inflation rates.

Most of the money created since the Great Financial Crisis 2006-9 has not reached consumers but gone into asset markets like stocks, bonds and property. That has kept the velocity of money at very low levels and until recently not affected consumer prices. But that is all about to change with rapid inflation increases to follow.

Nobody Owns Gold!

So if gold is the best performing asset class in this century why are only 0.5% of world financial assets invested in physical gold?

The simple answer is that most investors neither understand nor follow gold, which is why it is so cheap.

Virtually no investor is aware that gold has been the best performing asset class in the last 22 years.

But as inflation continues to rise, institutional investors in particular will be required to buy inflation protection. Stocks, bonds and property have become bubble assets with a massive downside risk and offering ZERO inflation protection.

Many investors will therefore turn to physical gold and precious metals mining stocks.

The total value of the 33 biggest mining stocks is only $210 billion with only 6 worth more than $10 billion.

Global stock market capitalisation is just over $90 trillion so gold mining stocks represent only 0.2% of that.

And if we add the total value of physical gold for private investment,  total investable gold assets amount to $2.5 trillion. With global financial investment assets at $220 trillion, the physical gold investment market is only just over 1% of global assets.

What is clear is that the total sums in gold mining stocks or physical gold is minuscule compared to global financial investments.

So when institutional and other investors move into the gold market and increase their holdings from 0.5% to 1% of world financial assets, that would involve a $1.1 trillion investment in gold and gold mining stocks which at today’s prices would represent 50% of that market globally. And if the gold investments went from 0.5% to 1.5% of global assets, that would mean buying all the gold available in the world for investment.

It is self-evident that those quantities would not be available. The only way to satisfy increasing demand in the gold sector would be at a much higher price which could easily be 10x higher than current prices.

Gold on the Cusp of a Major Move

Gold went up 25x in the 1970s and then paused for almost 20 years as stock markets moved up substantially. Gold then bottomed in 1999-2000 at $250. Since then gold has outperformed stocks and most other asset markets.

Measured against paper money, gold went up around 8x since between 1999 and the 2011-12 peak. 

It feels like gold has corrected for a very long time since the 2011-2 peak.  But if we look at the annual chart of gold in dollars below, we find that the correction only lasted for 3 years in 2013 to 2015.

Studying the chart closely we find that between 2001 and today, there have only been three down years (red bars).

So what we are looking at is a very strong performance already and that is before we will see the effect of all the positive factors for gold mentioned above.

To measure gold in debasing fiat money does not serve much purpose. If I say that gold will go to $25,000, it is meaningless if we don’t relate the price to inflation or purchasing power.

I stated many years ago that gold will go to at least $10,000 in today’s money and that is still a realistic forecast bearing in mind all the positive factors for gold currently.

Or expressed more correctly, the negative factors for fiat money and for the world.

So when will Gold go up then?

Having been properly invested in physical gold for ourselves and our investors since early 2002, we never worry about the shorter term.

Gold is for long term wealth preservation and not for short term gratification.

Still, I know that many gold investors as opposed to wealth preservationists are still impatient.

Short term gold could be finishing a corrective move this week or in the next few weeks. $1,800 is support but as we know, support lines are often tested in order to drive out the longs.

So whatever happens in the short term is of little significance.

Long term I have not changed my mind that gold will reach levels which few can imagine.

GOLD AS CHEAP AS IN 1971 AND 2000

Finally my favourite chart which shows that gold is a cheap today relative to US money supply as in 1971 when the price was $35 and in 2000 when gold was $290…

-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Good luck to Portugal if we want to obtain their half of its gold reserves stored at the Bank of England

(Reuters)

Portugal says more than half of its gold is at Bank of England

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-05-18 20:18Section: Daily Dispatches

So why doesn’t the country’s central bank try showing it off there instead?

* * *

Portugal’s Central Bank Opens Its Vaults for Rare Glimpse of Gold Bars

By Sergio Goncalves and Pedro Nunes
Reuters
Wednesday, May 18, 2022

LISBON — Portugal’s central bank has opened up its heavily guarded vaults in a small commuter town near Lisbon, giving a rare glimpse of where some of the country’s gold reserves are kept.

The 67,000-square-metre compound in Carregado houses an ultra-secure vault where the Bank of Portugal stores 382.6 tonnes of gold, 45% of its reserves. The remaining 55% is abroad, mostly in the Bank of England in London

“Gold is an important asset for central banks as it is a refuge asset and has no credit risks,” said Bank of Portugal board member Helder Rosalino said Tuesday during the rare media visit to the facility, guarded by armed police officers. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/portugals-central-bank-opens-its-vaults-rare-glimpse-gold-bars-2022-05-18/

end

How stupid can these guys get?

(Spence/Bloomberg/GATA)

Swiss gold refiner MKS PAMP plans to try to become environmental enforcer

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-05-18 20:34Section: Daily Dispatches

Maybe countries that want to remain independent will have to open their own refineries and take charge of their own carbon-emission standards.

* * *

Gold Refiner to Stop Working With Mines That Miss Carbon Goals

By Eddie Spence
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, May 18, 2022

One of the biggest gold refineries will look to stop sourcing metal from mines that fail to meet standards on carbon emissions.

MKS PAMP SA plans to curb emissions that come from its supply chain by 27.5% before the end of the decade, the company said in a statement today. As a result the Geneva-based firm may have to refuse gold from mines that create too much carbon dioxide.

Extraction of the metal forms the bulk of gold’s carbon footprint. Miners emitted almost a ton of carbon dioxide per ounce mined in 2019, according to S&P Global. The industry as a whole accounts for about 0.2% of the world’s emissions, Wood Mackenzie wrote in a report. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/gold-refiner-to-stop-working-with-mines-that-miss-carbon-goals-l3b7fitu

end

end 

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //DIAMONDS

END

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7505

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7622

HANG SANG CLOSED  DOWN 523.60 PTS OR 1.89% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 508.36 OR 1.89%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  103.41/Euro RISES TO 1.0517

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.238/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 127.94/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -SHORE CLOSED  DOWN//  OFF- SHORE  UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +0.859%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 2.75% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.90%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.53

3j Gold at $1829.90 silver at: 21.70  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP   1 & 4/10      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 62.03

3m oil into the 108 dollar handle for WTI and  108 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 127.94 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9765– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0267well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.838 DOWN 5  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.021 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 15.99

Market Rout Extends With Futures Tumbling To Verge Of Bear Market

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 08:02 AM

US stock futures slumped again, extending yesterday’s brutal selloff that erased $1.5 trillion in market value on concerns about everything from slowing growth, to Chinese lockdowns, to soaring inflation and tightening monetary policy. Contracts on the S&P 500 were down 1.2% 7:30 a.m. in New York, having earlier dropped to 3,856, one point away sliding 20% from January’s all time highs, and triggering a bear market. The underlying index tumbled 4% on Wednesday, the most since June 2020, as consumer shares cratered after Target slashed its profit forecast due to a surge in costs. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.2%. 10Y TSY Yields slumped about 7bps, dropping to 2.833, while the dollar also dropped after yesterday’s surge; bitcoin was flat around $29K.

The retail rout continued on Thursday: shares of US retailers again tumbled in premarket trading amid growing worries over the impact of rising inflation and the ability of companies to pass on higher costs to consumers; with Bath & Body Works becoming the latest retailer to cut its guidance. Major technology and internet stocks were also down, pointing to further losses in major technology and internet stocks a day after the tech-heavy Nasdaq slumped to its lowest since November 2020. Apple (AAPL US) -1.2%, Microsoft (MSFT US) -1.2%, Meta Platforms (FB US) -1.1%, Netflix (NFLX US) -0.9% and Nvidia (NVDA US) -2.2% in premarket trading. US rail stocks may be in focus as Citi cuts ratings on Norfolk Southern (NSC US), Union Pacific (UNP US) and US Xpress Enterprises (USX US) to neutral from buy, while lowering 2023 estimates “across the board.”Here are some other notable movers:

  • Cisco Systems (CSCO US) plunged 13% in premarket trading after the network-gear maker spooked investors with a warning that Chinese lockdowns and other supply disruptions would wipe out sales growth in the current quarter. Shares of networking equipment makers drop after Cisco cuts outlook, with Broadcom (AVGO US) -3.6% and Juniper Networks (JNPR US) -5.9% in premarket trading.
  • Synopsys (SNPS US) rises 3.8% in premarket trading after the supplier of software used to design semiconductors boosted its profit and revenue guidance for the full year.
  • Target (TGT US) shares fall 2.2% in premarket trading, Walmart (WMT US) -0.3%; Kohl’s (KSS US) is in focus after two senior executives depart
  • Under Armour (UAA US) shares dropped as much as 6% in US premarket trading, with analysts saying that the departure of the sportswear maker’s CEO Patrik Frisk is a surprise and adds uncertainty.
  • Bath & Body Works’s (BBWI US) outlook cut was a little greater than expected, though analysts noted that it was due to higher costs and investment. The company’s shares fell almost 4% in premarket trading.
  • United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC US) will struggle to main its 1Q earnings level in coming quarters, Piper Sandler says in a note downgrading the stock to underweight from neutral. Shares drop as much as 7% in US premarket trading.

The S&P 500 is on track for its longest weekly losing streak since 2001 as traders flee risk assets over fears that the Federal Reserve will push the economy into a recession as it tries to curb inflation. The benchmark is close to falling into a bear market, after dropping 18% from a record high in January.

“The US selloff was rather orderly and the market isn’t oversold, yet. That tells us that we are likely not at the bottom yet,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. “Consumer sentiment remains depressed and we are seeing consumers retrenching on some discretionary spending.” 

Speaking on Tuesday in his most hawkish remarks to date, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank will keep raising interest rates until there is “clear and convincing” evidence that inflation is in retreat. JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic, meanwhile, said – what else – that things can get better for US stocks. “There will be no recession this year, some summer increase in consumer activity on the back of reopening, China increasing monetary and fiscal measures,” he said.  Bolstering his opinion is a conviction that US inflation has probably peaked, or is about to do so, paving the way for a pullback in price pressures that will eventually allow the Federal Reserve to moderate the pace of monetary tightening. 

“Since we are pricing in a growth scare but not yet a recession, we could see further downside in the coming weeks, but we are starting to price in a very negative picture already, suggesting we should, at some point, be closer to the bottom,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA. US stock investors are pricing in stronger odds of a recession than are evident from positive macroeconomic indicators, according to Goldman Sachs strategists.

“A recession is not inevitable,” Goldman strategists led by David J. Kostin wrote in a note. “Rotations within the US equity market indicate that investors are pricing elevated odds of a downturn compared with the strength of recent economic data.”

Bets that robust earnings can help investors weather this year’s turbulence were thrown in doubt after US consumer titans signaled growing impact of high inflation on margins and consumer spending. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed that tighter monetary policy lies ahead, and investors fretted over stagflation risks.

“We are pricing in a growth scare,” Lori Calvasina, the head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Bloomberg TV. “There is a lot of uncertainty in this market right now about whether or not that recession is going to come through or if it’s going to be another near-death experience.”

There was some more good news on the China covid lockdown front: Shanghai Vice Mayor said Shanghai port throughput recovered to around 90% of the levels a year ago and that Shanghai will expand work resumption in areas with no COVID risk in early June. Furthermore, Shanghai is to gradually restore inter-district public transport from May 22nd and will require residents to show negative PCR tests taken within 48 hours before using public transport, while an economy official said Shanghai will reduce rents for small and medium-sized enterprises by more than CNY 10bln and the city extended CNY 72.3bln of loans to over 10,000 firms since March, according to Reuters.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 retreated 1.8%, after sliding more than 2% earlier, with all industry sectors in the red and personal care and financial services leading the decline as Wednesday’s retailer trouble in the U.S. spills over into Europe. FTSE 100 lags regional peers, dropping 2%. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • HomeServe shares jump as much as 12% after Brookfield agrees to buy the home emergency and repair services company for GBP4.1b.
  • Societe Generale shares rise as much as 1.5%, as it was raised to outperform from market perform at KBW, with the broker saying the sale of Russian activities removes a key overhang for the bank and should result in a re-rating.
  • Generali shares rose as much as 1.4% after 1Q profit beats analyst estimates as EU136m impairments on Russian investments were more than offset by higher operating income.
  • PGNiG shares rise as much as 6.2% after reporting 1Q results that, according to analysts, support Polish gas company’s outlook.
  • Nestle shares drop as much as 5.3% after Bernstein downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform, saying the shares will “struggle” if market sentiment improves and investors exit havens.
  • Royal Mail shares fall as much as 14% after the postal group’s FY results slightly missed estimates and analysts said its outlook is “disappointing.”
  • National Grid shares fall as much as 2.5%, erasing gains from yesterday’s record high, after the utility company reported full-year results.

Earlier in the session, shares of Asian retailers follow their US counterparts lower after Target became the second big retailer in two days to trim its profit forecast.

  • Australia: JB Hi-Fi retreats 6.6%, Wesfarmers -7.8%, Harvey Norman -5.5%, Woolworths -5.6%
  • South Korea: E-Mart – 3.4%; apparel makers Hansae -9.4%, F&F -4.2%, Youngone -8.2%
  • Japan: Fast Retailing – 3.1%, MatsukiyoCocokara -1.4%, Ryohin Keikaku -1.7%, Nitori -3%
  • Singapore: Grocery chain operator Sheng Siong slips as much as 1.3%
  • Hong Kong: Sun Art Retail down as much as 4.1%

In China, Tencent Holdings Ltd. plunged 6.6% after warning it will take time for Beijing to act on promises to prop up the Chinese tech sector. Cisco Systems Inc. slid in extended US trading on a disappointing revenue outlook.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 suffered firm losses amid reports the ruling coalition is considering increasing the corporate tax rate and after several data releases in which Machinery Orders topped estimates but Exports missed as China-bound exports declined by the fastest pace since March 2020.

Indian stocks declined to a ten-month low, tracking a sell-off across Asia, on concerns the US Fed’s hawkish stance on inflation may cool economic activity and hurt consumer demand.  The S&P BSE Sensex plunged 2.6% to 52,792.23, its lowest level since July 30, in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 2.7% to 15,809.40  Software exporter Infosys Ltd. fell 5.4% to a 11-month low and was the biggest drag on the Sensex, which had 27 of 30 member stocks trading lower. All 19 sector indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by S&P BSE Information Technology index, that dropped the most in over two years.   “Deteriorating macro sentiment such as soaring inflation, recession fears, and the prospect of the Federal Reserve getting even more hawkish will continue to keep benchmarks on the edge,” Prashanth Tapse, an analyst at Mehta Equities Ltd., wrote in a note.  In earnings, of the 36 Nifty 50 firms that have announced results so far, 21 have either met or exceeded analyst estimates, while 15 have missed forecasts.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.7% to close at 7,064.50, tumbling with global shares as concerns over inflation, interest-rate hikes and Ukraine piled up. All sectors dropped, except for health. Consumer shares were among the worst performers, following their US peers lower after Target became the second big retailer in two days to trim its profit forecast. Aristocrat rose after it released its 1H results and unveiled buyback plans. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 11,206.93

And in emerging markets, Sri Lanka fell into default for the first time in its history as the government struggles to halt an economic meltdown that prompted mass protests and a political crisis. An index of developing-nation stocks slumped more than 2%.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index declines, with all G-10 majors rising against the greenback. CHF is the strongest G-10 performer with USD/CHF snapping lower on to a 0.97 handle and EUR/CHF slumping below 1.03. The Swiss franc diverged from Japanese yen and dollar after hawkish comments from SNB’s Thomas Jordan Wednesday, which assured traders CHF rates could follow EUR higher. Options trades may also be behind the latest move in the spot market.

In rates, Treasury yields dropped about seven basis points as investors sought insurance against further declines in risk assets. Treasury yields richer by up to 6bp across belly of the curve, richening the 2s5s30s fly by 2.2bp on the day; 10-year yields around 2.83% with German 10-year outperforming by 2.5bps. Treasuries extended Wednesday’s rally as stocks resume slide with S&P 500 futures dropping under 3,900 to lowest level in a year; on the curve, the belly led the advance while bunds outperform in a more aggressive bull-flattening move as European stocks tumble. US session highlights include 10-year TIPS reopening at 1pm ET. Flurry of block trades during London session follows a spate of trades Wednesday; five blocks worth a combined cash-equivalent $1.2m/DV01 between 3:38am and 5:35am similarly entailed price action consistent with sales. Most European bonds also gained, with the yield on German 10-year securities falling more than basis points.  German yield curve bull-flattens: 30-year yield drops ~9bps before stalling near 1.05% which has acted as support for much of May so far.

The Dollar issuance slate empty so far; eight borrowers priced $8.5b Wednesday, and new issue activity is expected to be muted during remainder of the week. Three-month dollar Libor +2.69bp to 1.50486%. Economic data slate includes May Philadelphia Fed business outlook and initial jobless claims (8:30am), April existing homes sales and leading index (10am).

In commodities, crude oil extended declines, while most industrial metals were in the red as global growth fears damped the demand outlook. WTI reverses Asia’s gains, dropping back below $110 but holding above Wednesday’s lows. Spot gold is comparatively quiet, holding above $1,810/oz. Most base metals trade in the green; LME tin rises 2.1%, outperforming peers while copper held near a seven-month low and zinc extended losses.

Bitcoin is modestly softer in a relatively contained range that lies just shy of the USD 30k mark. Crypto exchange FTX to start rollout of new stock-trading service on Thursday, WSJ reports; will not accept payment for order flow on stock trades.

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, along with April’s existing home sales and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for May. Central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Holzmann and the Fed’s Kashkari. Finally, the ECB will be publishing the minutes from their April meeting.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.1% to 3,879.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.7% to 426.41
  • MXAP down 1.8% to 161.60
  • MXAPJ down 2.2% to 527.30
  • Nikkei down 1.9% to 26,402.84
  • Topix down 1.3% to 1,860.08
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.5% to 20,120.68
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,096.97
  • Sensex down 2.4% to 52,926.71
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 7,064.46
  • Kospi down 1.3% to 2,592.34
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,814.49
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.28% to 103.52
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.96%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0496
  • Brent Futures down 0.1% to $109.00/bbl

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Joe Biden is set to meet on Thursday with Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson at the White House to discuss the Nordic nations’ NATO bids.
  • China’s top diplomat again warned the US over its increased support for Taiwan, showing the island democracy remains a major sticking point between the world’s biggest economies as Beijing sent more military aircraft toward the island
  • Sri Lanka fell into default for the first time in its history as the government struggles to halt an economic meltdown that prompted mass protests and a political crisis
  • The yuan’s outlook is finally looking more balanced after a 6.5% dive versus its major trading partner currencies since March.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were pressured on spillover selling after the worst day on Wall St in almost two years. ASX 200 was led lower by consumer staples following the retailer woes stateside and mixed Australian jobs data. Nikkei 225 suffered firm losses amid reports the ruling coalition is considering increasing the corporate tax rate and after several data releases in which Machinery Orders topped estimates but Exports missed as China-bound exports declined by the fastest pace since March 2020. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp initially weakened with the Hong Kong benchmark dragged lower by heavy losses in tech after Tencent’s profit declined by more than 50% and with the mainland pressured as Beijing conducts a fresh round of mass COVID testing, although the mainland bourse recovered most of its losses after Shanghai announced a further gradual easing of restrictions. Xiaomi (1810 HK) Q1 adj. net profit CNY 2.859bln (vs 6.069bln Y/Y), Q1 revenue CNY 73.4bln (vs. 76.9bln Y/Y); global smartphone shipments -10.5% Y/Y at 38.5mln units.

Top Asian News

  • Shanghai Vice Mayor said Shanghai port throughput recovered to around 90% of the levels a year ago and that Shanghai will expand work resumption in areas with no COVID risk in early June. Furthermore, Shanghai is to gradually restore inter-district public transport from May 22nd and will require residents to show negative PCR tests taken within 48 hours before using public transport, while an economy official said Shanghai will reduce rents for small and medium-sized enterprises by more than CNY 10bln and the city extended CNY 72.3bln of loans to over 10,000 firms since March, according to Reuters.
  • Japanese MOF official said China’s COVID curbs are among the factors that caused a decline in China-bound exports from Japan which fell by the fastest pace since March 2020, while Japan’s April imports reached the largest amount on record, according to Reuters.
  • Japan’s ruling coalition is reportedly considering increasing the corporate tax rate, according to Jiji.
  • New Zealand sees 2021/22 OBEGAL at NZD -18.98bln (prev. forecast -20.44bln), 2021/22 net debt at 36.9% of GDP (prev. forecast 37.6%) and Cash Balance at NZD -31.78bln (prev. forecast -34.10bln), while Finance Minister Robertson said the economy is expected to be robust in the near term and they see a return to OBEGAL surplus in 2024/25, according to Reuters.

European bourses are pressured across the board in a broader risk-off moves after yesterday’s Wall St. sell off, as European players look past the brief respite seen overnight on Shanghai’s reopening; Euro Stoxx 50 -2.3%. Stateside, the magnitude of the downside is somewhat more contained given newsflow has been limited since Wednesday’s downside commenced, ES -1.2%.

Top European News

  • EU is reportedly considering a targeted trade war on troublesome Brexiteer MPs and Tory ministers to force UK PM Johnson to do a U-turn on the Northern Ireland protocol, according to The Telegraph.
  • Top UK Economist Defends BOE’s Handling of Inflation Crisis
  • EasyJet Bookings Pick Up Ahead of Uncertain Summer Season
  • Apax-Owned Rodenstock Acquires Spanish Rival Indo
  • European Gas Slips With LNG Imports Helping Boost Stockpiles

In FX

  • Franc resurgence and re-emergence as a safe haven currency continues; USD/CHF touches 0.9750 vs 1.0060+ peak on Monday, EUR/CHF sub-1.0250 vs circa 1.0500 at one stage only yesterday.
  • Dollar loses momentum as US Treasury yields retreat further and curve re-flattens amidst ongoing risk rout, DXY ducks under 103.500 after peaking just shy of 104.000 on Wednesday.
  • Kiwi and Aussie find positives via fiscal and fundamental factors to evade aversion; NZD/USD back above 0.6300 after NZ budget and AUD/USD hovering around 0.7000 post- Aussie jobs data.
  • Yen retains underlying bid irrespective of mixed Japanese data, USD/JPY below 128.00 again.
  • Euro firmer beyond EUR/CHF cross ahead of ECB minutes and Sterling off UK inflation data lows awaiting retail sales on Friday, EUR/USD retains sight of 1.0500 and Cable near 1.2400.
  • Rand meandering ahead of SARB in anticipation of 50 bp rate hike, USD/ZAR around 16.0000, irrespective of Gold taking firmer hold of USD 1800/oz handle.

Fixed Income

  • Debt resumes safe-haven rally as market mood continues to sour.
  • Bunds top 154.00, Gilts get close to 120.00 and 10 year T-note even nearer the same psychological level.
  • BTPs lag amidst the ongoing aversion to risk, while OATs and Bonos reflect on somewhat mixed auction results.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are pressured in-fitting with broader sentiment as initial resilience on demand-side positives re. China/COVID were overpowered by the risk move.
  • However, the benchmarks are around USD 1.00/bbl off lows of USD 104.36/bbl and USD 106.76/bbl respectively, following reports that China is discussing the purchase of Russian crude.
  • China is said to be in talks with Russia to purchase oil for strategic reserves, according to Bloomberg sources; detailed on terms and volume reportedly not decided yet
  • Qatar Energy was reportedly selling July Al-Shaheen crude at premiums of USD 5.80-6.40/bbl above Dubai quotes which is the highest in 2 months, according to Reuters sources.
  • Spot gold is bid as it draws haven allure, with the yellow metal marginally surpassing USD 1830/oz.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: May Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200,000, prior 203,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.32m, prior 1.34m
  • 08:30: May Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 15.0, prior 17.6
  • 10:00: April Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -2.2%, prior -2.7%; Home Resales with Condos, est. 5.64m, prior 5.77m
  • 10:00: April Leading Index, est. 0%, prior 0.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today is my last day at work this week before I head up to Cambridge tomorrow for my Masters’ graduation. Before you send in a flood of congratulations though, I didn’t actually do any work for this qualification, with not even a single hour of revision. Now at this point you’re probably thinking I’m either a genius or guilty of some serious academic malpractice. I’m hoping the former. But the truth is that I’m benefiting from a quirky tradition that somehow means Cambridge, Oxford and Dublin will upgrade your Bachelors into a Masters after a few years. With the wedding two months away, it appears as though I’m losing all my bachelor status at once.

Markets seem ready for a holiday too after the last 24 hours, with the selloff resuming at pace after the brief respite on Tuesday. In fact it was nothing short of a rout with the S&P 500 ending the day down -4.04%, marking its worst daily performance since June 2020, and leaving the index at a fresh one-year low. There wasn’t a single catalyst behind the slump, but weak housing data out of the US along with Target’s move to cut its profit outlook helped feed investor concern that the consumer might not be in as strong a position as previously thought. And that’s on top of all the other worries of late that the global economy is heading in a stagflationary direction amidst various supply-chain issues, alongside the prospect that tighter central bank policy is going to further dent growth and risks tipping various economies into recession.

In terms of the specific moves, the S&P 500 gradually tumbled as the day went on, with its -4.04% decline more than reversing its +2.02% bounceback on Tuesday. The decline was an incredibly broad-based one, with just 8 constituents in the index ending the day higher, which is the lowest number since November. That earnings report we mentioned at the top meant that Target (-24.93%) saw the worst performance in the entire S&P 500, after saying they now expected their full-year operating income margin rate to be around 6%. That follows a disappointing report from Walmart the previous day, and meant that consumer staples (-6.38%) and consumer discretionary (-6.60%) were the worst-performing sectors in the S&P yesterday. The latest declines also mean that the S&P is back on track for a 7th consecutive weekly decline, having shed -2.49% since the start of the week, and S&P 500 futures are only up by +0.18% this morning. If the S&P 500 does see a 7th week in negative territory, then that would be the longest run of weekly declines for the index since 2001. Other indices lost ground too given the risk-off move, with the Dow Jones (-3.57%), the NASDAQ (-4.73%), and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-3.56%) all experiencing sizeable declines of their own. European indices had a better performance after closing before the worst of the US declines, and the STOXX 600 was “only” down -1.14% to just remain in positive territory for the week.

With recessionary concerns back in focus, sovereign bonds rallied on both sides of the Atlantic as investors sought out safe havens. Yields on 10yr US Treasuries fell by -10.2bps to 2.88%, with the decline mostly led by a -9.6bps move lower in real yields, and nominal yields are only back up +2.5bps this morning. The yield curve also continued to flatten and the 2s10s slope (-6.9ps) fell to its lowest in over two weeks, at 21.0bps, although it’s been over 6 weeks now since the curve last traded in inversion territory. We did get some Fedspeak but to be honest there weren’t any major headlines relative to what we already knew, with Chicago Fed President Evans saying it was “quite likely” the Fed would be at a neutral setting by year-end, whilst Philadelphia Fed President Harker was making the case for more gradual rate hikes after the next few 50bp hikes are delivered. More important for the outlook was the release of various housing data yesterday, where housing starts fell to an annualised rate of 1.724m in April (vs. 1.756m expected), and that was from a downwardly revised 1.728m in March. That comes against the backdrop of rising mortgage rates, and the MBA reported that mortgage purchase applications fell -11.9% in the week ending May 13, leaving them at their lowest levels since May 2020 when the numbers were still recovering from the pandemic slump.

Over in Europe, sovereign bond curves also became flatter as investors became increasingly aggressive on the near-term ECB rate path. Indeed the amount of ECB rate hikes priced in by the December meeting hit a fresh high of 108bps, or equivalent to at least four rate hikes of 25bps by year-end. That came amidst further ECB speakers over the last 24 hours, including Finnish central bank governor Rehn, who had already endorsed a July hike and said yesterday that the initial hike was “likely to take place in the summer”. Furthermore, he said that it seemed “necessary that in our policy rates we move relatively quickly out of negative territory”. We also heard from Estonian central bank governor Muller, who also endorsed a July hike and said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the deposit rate were in positive territory by year-end. However, Spanish central bank governor De Cos said that rate hikes should be gradual as he called for APP purchases to end at the start of Q3, with rate hikes to follow shortly afterwards.

Those growing expectations of tighter policy saw shorter-dated yields move higher in Europe once again, with 2yr German yields hitting their highest level since 2011 despite only a marginal +0.1bps move to 0.36%. However, the broader risk-off tone meant it was a different story for their longer-dated counterparts, and yields on 10yr bunds (-1.6bps) and OATs (-2.2bps) both moved lower on the day. Peripheral spreads widened as well, whilst iTraxx Crossover neared its recent highs with a +26.2bps move to 468bps.

In terms of the fight against inflation, there was a potential boost on the trade side yesterday as US Treasury Secretary Yellen confirmed ahead of a meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governments that the she favoured removing some tariffs on goods that are not considered strategic. Separately the risk-off move also saw oil prices move lower for a 2nd day running yesterday, with Brent crude down -2.52%, although it’s since taken back a decent chunk of that loss this morning with a +1.51% move higher to $110.76/bbl.

Over in Asia, equity markets have tracked those steep overnight losses on Wall Street to move sharply lower this morning. Among the key indices, the Hang Seng (-2.25%) is the largest underperformer amidst a broad weakness in tech stocks as the Hang Seng Tech index fell by an even larger -3.40%. Mainland Chinese stocks have performed relatively better however, even if the Shanghai Composite (-0.08%) and CSI (-0.25%) have both moved slightly lower, while the Nikkei (-1.91%) and the Kospi (-1.29%) have seen more substantial losses. Finally there was some important employment data out of Australia this morning ahead of their election on Saturday, with the unemployment rate falling to its lowest since 1974, at 3.9%. The employment gain was a bit softer than expected with just a +4.0k gain (vs. +30.0k expected), but that included a +92.4k gain in full-time employment, offset by a -88.4k decline in part-time employment.

Elsewhere on the data side, there were fresh signs of inflationary pressure in the UK after CPI inflation rose to a 40-year high of +9.0% in April. But in spite of the 40-year high, that was actually slightly beneath the +9.1% reading expected by the consensus, which marked the first time in over 6 months that the reading hasn’t been higher than expected. Gilts outperformed following the release as it was also beneath the BoE’s staff projection of +9.1%, and 10yr gilt yields closed down -1.6bps on the day, whilst sterling underperformed the other major currencies leave it -1.28% weaker against the US Dollar.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, along with April’s existing home sales and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for May. Central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Holzmann and the Fed’s Kashkari. Finally, the ECB will be publishing the minutes from their April meeting.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.99 PTS OR 0.36%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 523.60 PTS OR 2.54%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 508.36 OR 1.89%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.66%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6,7505    /Oil DOWN TO 108.07dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 108.00 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7505 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7622: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER/

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/

3B  JAPAN

JAPAN/USA

USA and Japan prepare a statement pledging to jointly deter China militarily

(zerohedge)

US, Japan Prepare Statement Pledging To Jointly ‘Deter’ China Militarily

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 – 09:05 PM

Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo are about to ratchet further amid widespread reports that the United States and Japan have prepared a statement calling for both to “deter and respond to” China’s aggressive military activities in the Indo-Pacific region.

The statement is expected to be released as President Joe Biden visits Tokyo to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida early next week. Biden will travel to South Korea and Japan from May 20 to May 24, the White House previously announced.

Crucially, according to Nikkei, “The statement to be released after their Monday meeting in Tokyo will also clarify America’s resolve to defend Japan if it is attacked, including with nuclear weapons.”

The meeting will mark Biden’s first face-to-face meeting with the Japanese PM Kishida, coming at a crucial moment that the anti-China stance of both countries have steadily growing over recent years.

When Biden last year met with then-Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, the two issue a joint statement calling for stability in the “Taiwan Strait” – which was viewed as a provocative term by China given it was the first joint US-Japan statement to invoke Taiwan in many decades.

Next week’s Asia trip will include Biden rolling out his administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework – which is a plan to counter China economically.

Anticipating the Tokyo meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday warned Japan, stressing that US-Japan cooperation must not “hurt China’s sovereignty, security and development interests” – as quoted in Bloomberg. “China hopes that Japan acts cautiously and learns a lesson from history,” the Chinese foreign ministry was cited further as saying.

Early this year the US administration pledged to help Japan’s fledgling military and coast guard defend the contested Senkanu Islands in the event of a Chinese attack. Biden at the time stressed that the islands are covered under Article V of the Japan-US Security Treaty, related to mutual defense.

Japan has recently voiced that it wants to take its military from a purely defensive posture (which was stipulated under its post-WWII constitution), to one with the capability of being able to launch offensive operations.

end

3c CHINA

COVID//LOCKDOWNS/SHANGHAI

end

CHINA/USA

USA navy amasses a huge show of force near China as threatens of an invasion of Taiwan heightens

(zerohedge)

US Navy Amasses ‘Show Of Force’ Near China Amid Taiwan Invasion Threats

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 – 07:45 PM

The US Navy amassed a show of force in the waters near China. Top Western officials worry that Beijing could launch a military takeover of Taiwan after learning lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

The USS Ronald Reagan carrier and USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups, the USS America expeditionary strike group, and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli operate around the Philippine Sea to Japan to Western Pacific, according to the latest fleet tracking report by USNI News

China’s Tencent News reports the US Navy’s increasing show of force “means that the US military will conduct more military operations in the waters surrounding our country in the next few weeks.” 

The arrival of warships in the region comes as the USS Port Royal, a Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser, was followed by China’s Eastern Theater Command while sailing through the Taiwan Strait on May 10. 

Earlier this month, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) held a war exercise surrounding the island of Taiwan. PLA’s combat preparedness has concerned top US intelligence officials about mounting risks Beijing is preparing to invade Taiwan. 

​”It’s our view that they [the Chinese] are working hard to effectively put themselves into a position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan over,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told lawmakers on the Senate Armed Services Committee last week. 

In the last few months, Beijing has taken notes about lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and how Western powers have reacted. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping views Taiwan as part of its territory under the “one China” policy. Beijing has become increasingly irritated at Western powers for arming Taipei.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/EU

UK/Misery index

Brits are now the most miserable in 30 years as inflations soars to levels last seen in 40 years. Petrol is 162 pence/litre or approximately 6 pounds per gallon!!

(zerohedge)

Brits ‘Most Miserable’ In 30 Years As Inflation Soars To Thatcher-Era High

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 04:15 AM

UK headline inflation hit 9% in April, marking its highest level in 40 years thanks in large part to the rising costs of gas and electricity which has driven the average bill close to £2,000 (US$2,484), according to the Office for National Statistics.

Average petrol prices rose to a record 161.8p a litre in April 2022 from 125.5p a year earlier. Diesel was another factor behind the increase in the consumer prices index from 7% in February after the average cost at the pumps hit a record high of 176.1p a litre, leading to an average increase over the last 12 months in motor fuels of 31.4%. –The Guardian

Meanwhile, food banks are reporting an increase in demand for food packages, while small business owners say a combination of higher taxes and increased costs have pushed them to the edge of bankruptcy, according to the report.

Adding to the problem is the end of a temporary VAT cut for the hospitality industry from 20% to 12.5%, as hotels and restaurants say they can’t shield customers from the increase.

According to the Resolution Foundation cited by The Guardianthe poorest 10% of households faced an inflation rate of 10.2% in April, significantly higher than the 8.7% felt by the top 10% of earners.

The pain is being felt across all sectors of industry and commerce, putting pressure on the government and central bank to take action as we noted earlier Wednesday. Meanwhile, investors pared back bets on BOE rate hikes in anticipation of the scorching inflation, with money markets pricing around 120bps from the previous day.

And of course, a steep fall in the pound is not helping the cost of imports, with sterling slumping from $1.30 last month to $1.24 after dipping to $1.22 last week, making it the worst G-10 performer.

Consequently, the Misery Index – which adds inflation and unemployment, is also back to Thatcher-era levels.

Interestingly, according to Goldman, the UK core CPI increase from +5.71% in March to +6.19% in April vs their respective levels one year ago is “in line with consensus expectations.”

The increase in the year-over-year headline rate was driven by the 54% increase in Ofgem’s price cap, and a sharp increase in sequential food inflation (+1.66%mom vs +0.05%mom in March and +0.84%mom in April last year). Within core inflation, there were upwards price pressures in restaurants and hotels due to the increase in VAT from 12.5% to 20% in April and due to more volatile categories, such as games and toys.

The bank expects UK inflation ‘to remain elevated throughout 2022 due to supply chain disruptions, strong wage growth and higher energy prices.”

Yet, while Goldman expects ‘strong wage growth,’ labor market figures released on Tuesday showed that growth in real wages has lagged behind the surge in inflation.

In an attempt to mitigate the effects of inflation, the British Chambers of Commerce has called for the chancellor to hold an emergency mini-budget, according to The Guardian.

“The scale at which inflation is damaging key drivers of UK output, including consumer spending and business investment, is unprecedented and means there is a real chance the UK will be in recession by the third quarter of the year,” said Suren Thiru, the head of economics at the BCC.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak indicated he may try to find solutions to boost the incomes of those with the lowest pay, however the cabinet is reportedly split on how to fund billions of pounds in extra welfare. Some have suggested a windfall tax on oil and gas companies.

END

EU

European auto sales plunge a massive 20% in April extending its 10 month losing streak

(zerohedge)

European Auto Sales Plunge 20% In April, Extending 10 Month Losing Streak

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 02:45 AM

In an ominous sign for the auto industry overseas, new vehicle sales in Europe shrank by 20% – falling for the 10th month in a row – according to a Wednesday morning Bloomberg wrap up. 

Registrations for April fell 20% to 830,447 vehicles, the report noted. The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association noted that it was the steepest decline this year. Year to date, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts Index is down 16%.

Stellantis suffered the worst in April, with a 31% drop. Names like Mercedes-Benz Group, BMW, Volkswagen, Renault and Volvo will also be on watch heading into the back end of this week. 

The cause of the slumping sales continues to be supply chain woes, though a strapped consumer in a rising rate environment may also likely contribute to tightening going forward.

The losing streak continues months after Goldman had opined that European automakers had already priced in a “stressed” scenario. The Stoxx 600 Auto and Parts Index was around the same level back in March and appears to be consolidating since then.

The bank had predicted that energy inflation wouldn’t have a “material impact” on COGS and that impacts of energy prices were “low at this point”. The bank still cut its EBIT estimates by 2%/4% and 14%/11% on average for 2022/23 for carmakers. 

Despite cuts, the bank said back in March that auto names like BMW and Stellantis “do not look expensive even under our stress scenario”. In March, we also highlighted when Volkswagen’s CEO said that the Ukrainian war could be worse for European autos than Covid was:

“The interruption to global supply chains could lead to huge price increases, scarcity of energy and inflation,” Herbert Diess, chief executive of the German carmaker, told the Financial Times.

“It could be very risky for the European and German economies.”

END

Russia is not going to like this:  major NATO war games set to begin must miles from Russian base (Kaliningrad)

(Anzalone/Libertarian Institute)

Major NATO War Games Set To Begin Miles From Russian Base

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Kyle Anzalone & Will Porter via The Libertarian Institute,

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization will soon conduct large-scale exercises in the Baltics, with thousands of troops from more than a dozen nations set to take part in war games just 40 miles from the nearest Russian military base.

Dubbed “Hedgehog,” the drills will kick off later this week in Estonia and run until June 3, meant to simulate a Russian invasion. They will involve 15,000 troops from 14 countries – including the United States, Britain, Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Norway, as well as non-NATO members Ukraine, Georgia, Sweden and Finland

According to Major General Veiko-Vello Palm, deputy commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, the exercise will take place just 40 miles from a Russian military base, a facility hosting Moscow’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division in the border city of Pskov. 

The size of the war games – among the largest in the Baltics since the fall of the USSR – their proximity to the Russian border, and the inclusion of non-NATO states are likely to escalate tensions with Moscow. Though the exercises were planned before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, they will no doubt serve as an additional show of force as NATO members flood the Ukrainian battlefield with billions of dollars in weapons and gear.

The drills come as US lawmakers move ahead on a massive $40 billion aid package for Kiev, around half of which will be devoted to arms shipments. That bill follows more than $14 billion in aid already delivered or authorized by the US government.

The Hedgehog exercise will also overlap with two major NATO and allied military drills currently being held in the region, “Defender Europe” and “Swift Response,” which together involve around 18,000 soldiers from 20 countries. A flurry of additional war games are planned for Germany, Finland, Poland and elsewhere in the coming months.

Major General Palm noted that Hedgehog would include more participants than originally planned due to the war in Ukraine, though declined to go into specifics about how many Ukrainian and Georgian troops would take part. “I would like not to go into details, but we are talking about a few people, not tens or hundreds of people,” he said.

It’s unclear if Finland or Sweden were initially meant to participate in the latest drills, but both countries recently applied for membership in the NATO bloc, citing security concerns stemming from Moscow’s attack on its neighbor.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/EU

Russia expels 87 more European diplomats from its country in retaliatory “hostile act”

(zerohedge)

Russia Expels 85 More European Diplomats In Retaliatory “Hostile Act”

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Deteriorating relations between Moscow and Europe continue to spiral at a moment just a tiny handful of leaders, most especially Emmanuel Macron of France, are pushing for more serious engagement focused on Ukraine de-escalation negotiations. Both the Russian and Ukrainian sides have at the start of this week confirmed that ceasefire talks are not occurring ‘in any form’.

On Wednesday a new wave of European diplomats have been expelled from Russia in retaliation for Europe expelling Russian officials as part of continuing punitive measures related to the invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced the fresh tit-for-tat move to boot 34 “employees of French diplomatic missions” in Russia. They’ve been given two weeks to exit the country.

Previously France had expelled 41 Russian staff from the country’s diplomatic missions, which the Kremlin has protested as a “provocative and unfounded decision.”

And a further 27 officials of of the Spanish embassy in Moscow and the Spanish Consulate General in St. Petersburg “have been declared persona non grata” – according to the AFP. The Spanish employees have been given only a week to leave.

Moscow is also preparing to announce moves against Italian diplomats as well. Along with expelling Russians from Italy, the government has been among the first this week to call for Finland and Sweden’s swift admissions into NATO.

“While there was no official statement, the Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed to Russian news agencies that 24 Italian diplomats had also been expelled,” the AFP is reporting. This brings the total number of European diplomats expelled to a whopping 85.

Meanwhile, Paris has slammed the latest wave of retaliatory measures by Moscow as having “no legitimate basis” – and Italy is condemning the “hostile act” aimed at its diplomats.

Since the Feb.24 invasion, there’s been wave after wave of US-EU sanctions slapped on top Russian leaders and its key institutions, most especially banking – also as pledges of increased military support to Kiev from the Western powers have ratcheted greatly.

This has led many observers to conclude Ukraine has reached the level of full blown proxy war between Russia and NATO. Increasingly there looks to be no ‘off ramps’ at this time, given lack of any serious dialogue, and as even diplomatic relations continue to break down between the West and Russia. Finland and Sweden’s simultaneous application bids to join NATO is something also adding fuel to the fire.

END

Ongoing Surrender “On Far Bigger Scale Than Kyiv Has Acknowledged” At Azovstal

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 11:05 AM

Russia’s defense ministry has now revised the numbers of Ukrainian fighters to have emerged from the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol upward to more than 1,700 soldiers that have left the plant. A new Reuters headline has stressed that there’s ongoing “silence from Kyiv” as the surrender is on a much larger than expected scale:

Moscow said on Thursday that 1,730 Ukrainian fighters had surrendered in Mariupol over three days, including 771 in the past 24 hours, claiming a surrender on a far bigger scale than Kyiv has acknowledged since ordering its garrison to stand down.

Statements from early in the week by Ukrainian officials, including President Zelensky, attempted to downplay this as “surrender” – avoiding the word altogether and instead stressing the end of the “combat mission” and that its Azov fighters were “evacuated”.

Russian-backed separatists in control of the area, Denis Pushilin, has recently said many of Azov’s top commanders still remain inside the huge, cavernous steelworks facility.

Reuters observes, “The ultimate outcome of Europe’s bloodiest battle for decades remained publicly unresolved, with no confirmation of the fate of the hundreds of Ukrainian troops who had held out in a vast steelworks at the end of a near three-month siege.”

“Ukraine, which says it aims to secure a prisoner swap, has declined to say how many were inside the plant or comment on the fate of the rest, since confirming that just over 250 had surrendered in the initial hours after it ordered them to yield,” the report added.

Meanwhile, a report from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) suggests that indeed the number of fighters which were hold up at the plant for months is likely significantly higher that what was known. The Red Cross has thus far registered “hundreds”

On Tuesday the ICRC started “to register combatants leaving the Azovstal plant, including the wounded, at the request of the parties,” it said in a statement from its headquarters in Geneva.

“The operation continued Wednesday and was still ongoing Thursday,” it added.

It was previously reported that the wounded are being transported by the Russian military to one of its administered hospitals in the Donbas, some 40km away.

The Red Cross sought to stress that it is a neutral humanitarian organization which will monitor the transfer of the prisoners. “The ICRC is not transporting POWs to the places where they are held,” an official statement said. “The registration process that the ICRC facilitated involves the individual filling out a form with personal details like name, date of birth and closest relative.”

Footage showing Red Cross representative making contact with Ukrainian POWs…

“This information allows the ICRC to track those who have been captured and help them keep in touch with their families,” it added. “In accordance with the mandate given to the ICRC by States under the 1949 Geneva Conventions, the ICRC must have immediate access to all POWs in all places where they are held.”

END

This is reality within Russia

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:11 PM (1 hour ago)
to

As you read this, this is Russian realities while the disconnect from the “collective west” has real implications that are not being considered, or widely known.  Perhaps, there is no point as actions taken have started a cascade of disconnects from Russia with consequences that will affect everyone in different ways. The US in it’s wisdom will see to it that Russia defaults on it’s USD debt, even though funds exist for payment not due until the 25th of this month. Being a Russian bond holder will be a problem for those counting for balance sheet value. Will sanctions on Ruble holders be next? And what of settlement mechanisms?  And that is nothing to say about, how Russia might feel about sending more diesel fuel to the eastern USA. What is the point as hybrid war exists? Will the eastern part of America find itself without diesel in coming days? If so where does replacement come from? And what is US impact? Disengagement of economies is not a simple task and it comes with consequences for all parties concerned. Such decisions and their consequences are best enjoyed over immense planning windows to avoid disruptions that cause other ensuing events. 

Should the West find itself in a similar disengagement trap as Russia in coming months or as we are in now not realizing it, we will actually witness and experience real economic declines as no side is immune to the fallout of sanctions of a hybrid war that has no winners. And in this sad state of affairs real economic decisions about rebuilding must take place as this will not be be about collective recovery. Simply because economies are now a part of hybrid war between conflicting agendas. 

From Glazyev for thinking people:

The forecast for the development of the Russian economy from the Ministry of Economic Development strikes not with its pessimism, but with the lack of a concept and development of a new paradigm of economic development.

The scenario for the Russian economy is discouraging: a 7.8% fall in GDP in 2022, a continued fall of 0.7% in 2023, and growth in 2024 and 2025 of only 3.2% and 2.6%, which by 2025 will not make it possible to compensate for the failure of 2022. In fact, a return economy to the levels of 2008 by 2024. The collapse of investments by 20% in 2022, their freezing at the bottom in 2023 (+0.3% by 2022), the growth of unemployment from 4.8% current to 6.7% in 2022 and stabilization at this level in 2023.

Forecasts and development scenarios of the Ministry of Economic Development are submitted to the government and sent to the regions for the formation of budgets and state economic policy. What follows from the MED forecast?

According to the plans, there will be no launch of the investment cycle, there will be no mobilization development, there will be no New Economic Policy (NEP). Otherwise, they would not have assumed an increase in unemployment where it cannot be, by definition, and would not have put minus 20% of investments in two years by 2021. As part of a mobilization spurt, there is always a shortage of personnel, because. points of growth and development multiply exponentially, and the investment cycle is a natural process of survival and transformation.

The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is consistent with the recent forecast from the Central Bank. Passive position, conservation of the current state (expectation of natural adaptation of the economy to external challenges), adjustment to current realities and situational maneuvers to extinguish the sources of “economic fire”, and not to prevent the risk of “fire” itself.

In other words, the Central Bank and the economic bloc are still operating within the framework of the old paradigm, where the imperative of faith in the free hand of the market (a typical liberal concept), inflation targeting at any cost, the formation of a “financial safety cushion” through the distribution of accumulated income into reserves (mainly unfriendly countries) operates .

The latter seems to have been sorted out, moreover, by the hands of “Western partners”, when, having created a zone of toxicity of reserve currencies, the United States and Europe are forcibly squeezing the Russian government out of these assets. Although, judging by half of the distribution of gold reserves in toxic assets, ours were in illusions to the last. But it is good that they have now realized that the doctrinal setting of oversaturation of reserves at the cost of limiting current development is a dead end. Reserves still cannot be used in critical situations, and therefore there is no point in accumulating them.

Inflation targeting under the past paradigm of medium-term price stability in the current circumstances is a senseless and harmful initiative. It is absolutely normal and natural in the conditions of economic restructuring to fix high inflation as a natural reaction of the economy to eliminate inefficiency, adjust the economy to new price proportions and search for alternative macro-financial balances. In other words, on a trajectory of fragmented and impulsive development, increased inflation is a sign of a healthy economy that is establishing new equilibrium factors.

The worst thing is faith in the free hand of the market in the conditions of perestroika. Just like an echo from the 90s. The country is facing fundamental challenges that modern Russia has not yet known, we are at a civilizational break in the phase of tectonic transformation of the world economic and geopolitical space.

Three months have passed since the NWO, the economy is partially paralyzed by the rupture of trade, financial and logistical ties with the outside world. Where the hell is NEP 2022 from the government? Three months is enough time to understand what reality we are in. In the current conditions, it is absolutely necessary to strengthen the role of the state, at least at an early stage, at the starting point. But so far we are seeing situational maneuvers to plug holes in the ship’s hull, while it is necessary to act ahead of schedule.

There is a feeling that the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank are not fully aware of what they predict. What kind of unemployment can we talk about in the face of the scale of the challenges facing the country? What kind of investment collapse in 2022 and investment paralysis in 2023 can we talk about when the country is on the verge of virtually unlimited investment projects?

The economic bloc and the Central Bank are still stuck in 2021, when we are already in a new reality. It’s time to wake up, otherwise, given the concentration and scale of economic and geopolitical challenges, the country will not be able to withstand the burden of accumulated problems and accumulated imbalances. An attempt to revive past patterns of response to crisis processes is not relevant in the context of the new “post-reality” that took shape after February 24th.

Objectively speaking, there is more than enough space in the country for development on the trajectory of liberation from the oppression of transnational corporations. According to my recent calculations, in Russia, foreign companies (the share of non-residents is over 50%) formed about 16% of revenue, 18% of gross value added, about 20-21% of net profit and provided employment for 13% of those employed in the economy for a group of companies whose revenue exceeds 20 billion rubles Almost 90% of these companies are from the list of unfriendly countries.

Many of them leave under the pressure of stupidity and political circumstances. It’s not bad. Previously, there was a problem of struggle for the sales market, which were captured by TNCs through the institution of lobbying. Now all this riffraff is gone. Now huge niches have been vacated in the country, which can and should be occupied by national companies.

Why am I so critical of government economic decisions?

First, lack of time. Their forecast suggests that they decided to sit out for a couple of years until everything resolves itself. This does not happen, nothing is absorbed in the economy without critical consequences. We don’t have two years, not one year, not even one month. It was necessary to act already yesterday. There are a lot of unresolved problems.

Secondly, private business alone will not be able to solve a complex of infrastructural, organizational, technological and financial problems. We need a tough and strong-willed hand of the state, which will create a base for start-up growth, which in the future will be intercepted by private business. It’s time to tie up with these liberal games in the free market. The backbone of sustainable long-term development is formed only through a vertically integrated economy and centralized planning. It’s been in the UK, it’s been in the US and it’s happening in China. Fairy tales about the free hand of the market for fools.

Thirdly, remember that development is impossible without innovations and technologies, and they, in turn, are impossible without science. From 2014 to 2021, investment in research and development (both private and public) declined absolutely dramatically – by 21% in real terms. From 2% in GVA in 2014, the share has decreased to 1.46% by 2021. Yes, there is an island of stability in the form of IT and related industries – this is wonderful, but industrialization cannot be done without technology. China understood this in 2003 and actively invested in science. It’s time for us to understand.

One can try to replace critical imports from West to East. But this is an intermediate task. Import substitution and localization of production chains are impossible without compensating for the technological gap, and this requires science and technology. This is a matter of survival and development of the country. Primary task.

I will soon prepare a set of tasks and directions that are relevant for implementation in Russia.

https://t.me/glazieview/1738

end

UkraineNews on Twitter: “Russia has informed the Ukrainian government that if it wants energy from the #Zaporozhye power plant it must pay for it Almost all Power Plants are now in Russian control #UkraineRussiaWar #Kiev #Odessa #Mariupol #Azovstal #Lviv #Donbass #Zaporizhzhia #Zelensky #France https://t.co/QZV95xqwzx” / Twitter

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:37 PM (51 minutes ago)
to

Hilarious! Now the boys in the band will see what this was all about .,.. control energy and you have control …
Russia thought this through far better than the actor and his handlers in Kiev… what Zelensky should ponder is whether the Nazi crowd will let him escape with his ill gotten gains to England ( oligarchs have their own justice) or die from a lamppost in Kiev. Shit storm is coming.

Cheers
Robert

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE/

Seems that the Monkeypox has to do with the immunosuppress effects on the vaccine

(Pearson/EpochTimes)

US Confirms Monkeypox Virus In Massachusetts After UK, Spain, Portugal Cases In Men

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 08:10 AM

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A single case of the rare but serious monkeypox virus has been confirmed in Massachusetts in a man. Recent cases in the United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal have been linked to men who have sex with other men.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed the U.S. case on Wednesday, after initial testing completed late Tuesday at the State Public Health Laboratory in Jamaica Plain.

The man poses no risk to the public and is in hospital in good condition, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) said in its release.

Contact tracing efforts are underway between Massachusetts DPH, the CDC, relevant local health officials, and the man’s health care providers.

The United Kingdom has confirmed nine cases of monkeypox since early May. The first of these cases had recently traveled to Nigeria. None of the other cases reported recent travel.

Five cases were also confirmed in Portugal on Wednesday in young men, with 15 cases under investigation.

Health authorities in Spain said late on Wednesday that they were also assessing 23 possible cases of monkeypox, mostly in men who have sex with men.

The Epoch Times contacted Massachusetts DPH for further relevant information regarding the U.S. case.

Monkeypox symptoms typically begin with flu-like illness and swelling of the lymph nodes. It progresses to a rash on the face and body. Most infections last two to four weeks.

The virus does not easily spread between people, according to Massachusetts DPH.

Transmission can occur through contact with body fluids, monkeypox sores, items such as clothing or bedding contaminated with fluids or sores, or through respiratory droplets following prolonged face-to-face contact.

Massachusetts DPH is advising clinicians to consider a diagnosis of monkeypox in people who present with an otherwise unexplained rash, have had recent overseas travel in the last 30 days to places with confirmed or suspected cases, have had contact with confirmed or suspected cases, or is a man who reports sexual contact with other men.

The advice is based on the findings of the U.S. case and recent UK cases, and is in line with recommendations from UK health officials and U.S. federal health officials.

Health care providers are being told that monkeypox illness could be clinically confused with a sexually transmitted infection syphilis or herpes, or with varicella zoster virus.

Patients may present with early flu-like symptoms and progress to lesions that may begin on one site on the body and spread to other parts.

It is very rare for the disease to occur in the United States, with most cases linked to international travel or importing animals from places where the disease is common, such as central and west Africa, according to the CDC.

In central and west Africa, people can be exposed through bites or scratches from rodents and small mammals, preparing wild game, or having contact with an infected animal or possible animal products.

Texas man who traveled to Nigeria was confirmed to have monkeypox in July 2021.

[ZH: For a deeper dive on monkeypox John Campbell gives an excellent rundown]

END

This is good:  Businesses have sued Michigan’s Whitmer for closing down their operations

(Kovac/Epoch Times )

“They Shut Us Down”: Michigan Businesses Sue Whitmer For Losses Due To COVID Lockdowns

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 – 09:25 PM

Authored by Steven Kovac via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A coalition of five bowling alleys and family entertainment centers is suing Michigan’s Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, for losses incurred due to her mandatory COVID-19 shutdowns in 2020.

Michigan Dept. of Health and Human Services director Robert Gordon is also a defendant in the case.

The plaintiffs allege that the shutdowns imposed by Whitmer and Gordon were a “taking” of their businesses without just compensation in violation of both the state and the U.S. Constitution.

The case has been winding its way through the federal courts since January 2021.

The coalition lost the first round of the legal battle when the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Michigan ruled against it.

Oral arguments were recently held before a three-judge panel of the US Court of Appeals Sixth Circuit.

Plaintiff’s chief counsel David Kallman told The Epoch Times after the appeals court hearing, “The oral arguments from both sides were vigorous. The judges asked a lot of questions. It was the kind of proceeding that makes you proud to be a lawyer.

“Even the defense acknowledges that we are presenting ‘novel’ arguments.

“Michigan is the only state in the nation where a governor’s public health emergency powers were overturned as unconstitutional.

“If we lose in the court of appeals, we will take this case to the U.S. Supreme Court.”

Scott Bennett, executive director of the Independent Bowling and Entertainment Centers Association, told The Epoch Times,

“The governor’s actions were devastating to our industry.

“Things went from ‘two weeks to slow the spread’ to indefinite shutdowns.”

Bennett said that the forced closures were not based on solid scientific proof that bowling alleys and family entertainment centers would spread the virus any more than the Walmart stores or the GM plants that were allowed to remain open.

“They were allowed to operate with hundreds and even thousands of people in them but we had to shut down. We feel our industry was unfairly singled-out.

“We cannot stand for a repeat of such arbitrary treatment and don’t want the people of Michigan to forget what was done to them.”

With the recent uptick in COVID cases and the approaching mid-term elections, Bennett said his members that survived the 2020 shutdowns feel like it can happen all over again.

“It’s like operating day-to-day with a hammer held over your head. The uncertainty is altering business plans. The value of our businesses is dropping through the floor,” Bennett said.

Fred Kautz, the proprietor of Kautz’s Shore Lanes in Lexington, Michigan, started working in the family business when he was 13.

The business has 12 bowling lanes, a bar, an arcade, a restaurant, and living quarters upstairs.

“We’ve owned this place for 42 years. For me and my family, it’s more than a place to work. It’s a way of life. And it has become an institution in our community—a real gathering place,” said Kautz.

He said he is still smarting from what happened after Whitmer’s executive actions were ruled unconstitutional by the Michigan Supreme Court in the fall of 2020.

“We got a little reprieve. We thought we were in the clear until she came back with another round of forced closures, this time under the authority of the Michigan Department of Public Health.

The first 30 days knocked us right on our butts. But we were willing to cooperate, to do our part. We were all scared and we did not want to see harm come to anybody.

We lost a lot of money at the time. We are coming back slowly, but our overall revenue is still down 20 percent from pre-pandemic days. That’s hard to make up.

“In the spring of 2020, I tried to do what was recommended and go along. Never again!

“If my Dad was still alive, he’d have never closed at all,” said Kautz.

Brian and Mindy Hill, owners of I.C. Strikes, a 16-lane bowling alley, bar, and snack bar in Imlay City said their business was hit hard by the shutdowns.

Brian was the town barber for 25 years, before purchasing the bowling alley where he learned to bowl as a child.

“We took over in December 2018. We’d saved up money to buy this place and make some upgrades. When COVID hit, we were forced to close down. It took all the money we saved for improvements just to survive,” said Brian.

The Hills said they never thought they’d see the day when their own government could do something like that to them.

They shut us down. They took away our livelihood with no end date in sight. Then they wanted to loan us money. Think about that. They first put us in a situation where we had zero income to pay our previous debt. And then they wanted to loan us more money.

“Lots of small business people lost their businesses but kept their debt. It ruined them,” said Brian.

The Hills did apply for and receive a Small Business Administration loan at 3.25 percent interest for 30 years, and they participated in the Paycheck Protection Program which helped their business survive.

Up the road from the Hill’s bowling alley is Jump City, a large indoor recreation center offering an array of bouncy houses and arcade games for children.

Assistant manager Mary Bacon told The Epoch Times, “We lost a lot of business. We were forced to close for 15 months and had to make our payments with no income.”

Bacon remembers the morning of March 16, 2020, when many area businesses were gearing up for big St. Patrick’s Day celebrations.

“By afternoon everybody had to close. All that food went to waste.

“The shutdown was supposed to be for a couple of weeks. Nobody foresaw it would drag on for a year and three months.

“Oh, they said we could open again, but they so severely restricted the number of customers that we lost all of our big birthday parties. With so few kids allowed in, we couldn’t operate. We were losing too much money.”

Bacon said people are coming back to the center but are still scared, even though the games and bouncy houses are continuously cleaned and sanitized.

Before the pandemic, Danny Brown owned a roller rink in Grand Blanc and Owasso, two south-central Michigan towns.

“The lockdowns forced us to sell the Owasso rink for less than half of what we paid for it. We will be trying to make up our loss for years to come.”

Brown, who is a plaintiff in the lawsuit, told The Epoch Times, “To keep going I had to decide to triple our debt. Since the shutdown, I am three-quarters of a million dollars deeper in debt.

“Small businesses put everything on the line. All of our personal and family money. I am personally responsible for our debt. If I die my children will have to pay it.”

Brown said Michigan’s government acted without a real understanding and regarded the state’s small businesses as “nonessential throwaways.”

“One of the reasons we filed suit is to push the government to think differently,” he said.

According to Brown, family entertainment centers like skating rinks, bowling alleys, arcades, pool halls, miniature golf, and go-cart tracks have been nearly wiped out.

“A few years ago, there were 3,500 roller skating rinks in the United States. Now there are 700. There were five rinks in Genesee County, now there are two.” he said.

Brown attributes the decrease to years of ongoing government mandates and interference that led up to the COVID-19 lockdowns.

“They took, they stole our businesses!” he said.

Donn Slimmen, another plaintiff in the case, owns Spartan West Bowling in the west Michigan resort town of Ludington.

“The lockdown just about killed us. It was 14 to 15 months of agony. Our bank payments and utility bills didn’t stop. We went from being two to three months behind to more months behind.

“We entered into survival mode. We ate a lot of pork and beans and hotdogs. We’re still trying to work ourselves out of the hole. By the end of this summer, we might be solvent again.

“We were lucky to survive. We are still hanging on by threads,” said Slimmen.

Along with 16 bowling lanes, Slimmen operates a full-service restaurant.

It’s never come back. Pre-pandemic, we’d serve 200 customers at an ordinary Friday fish fry. Now our best night is 100.

“Our restaurant went from a thriving seated-guest business to a take-out operation grossing only two to three percent of the seated sales.

“We were spending $400 to take in proceeds of $100.

“The politicians and bureaucrats don’t understand. They never cleaned a toilet seat or climbed into a bowling machine to fix it,” said Slimmen.

Slimmen blames Gov.Gretchen Whitmer for the plight of his community and the state.

“You didn’t see Republican governors closing businesses. Their states did so much better.

“Drive through downtown Ludington or Muskegon and look at all the boarded-up storefronts. So many places are out of business. Michigan is in terrible shape,” Slimmen said.

The Tomassoni family has been in the bowling business for 84 years in the western Upper Peninsula town of Iron Mountain, Michigan.

We had to close bowling and our banquet facility a total of 161 days in two different periods of time in 2020. After the second shutdown, we could operate at 25 percent occupancy and only during restricted hours. No wedding receptions, no special events. It was a disaster.

“It ripped my heart out. I am so bitter towards my government,” said owner Pete Tomassoni.

Tomassoni’s business suffered further because of its proximity to Wisconsin which is only minutes away.

“Wisconsin closed for just 30 days. For the most part, they were wide open. That really hurt us.

“Our governor was picking and choosing which of our state’s businesses could operate. To force a business to close with no notice and without proven science is straight out wrong.

“I think that she came down so hard on small business because we, by and large, lean to the right.

“The state dangled the threat of yanking business licenses to keep people in line.

“Some of our businesses tried to defy the state and stayed open

END

Missouri bill prevents doctors from being disciplined if they prescribe Ivermectin or HCQ

(EpochTimes)

Missouri Bill Prevents Doctors Being Disciplined If They Prescribe Ivermectin Or Hydroxychloroquine

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 – 11:25 PM

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Missouri lawmakers passed legislation that prevents state licensing boards from disciplining doctors who prescribe ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine.

Sponsored by Rep. Brenda Kay Shields (R-Mo.), HB 2149 also bars pharmacists from questioning doctors or disputing patients regarding the usage of such drugs and their efficacy.

With a convincing 130–4 vote in the House, HB 2149 passed both chambers on May 12 and currently heads to the office of Gov. Mike Parson to be potentially signed into law.

The board shall not deny, revoke, or suspend, or otherwise take any disciplinary action against, a certificate of registration or authority, permit, or license required by this chapter for any person due to the lawful dispensing, distributing, or selling of ivermectin tablets or hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets for human use in accordance with prescriber directions,” reads the draft of the bill (pdf).

It adds, “A pharmacist shall not contact the prescribing physician or the patient to dispute the efficacy of ivermectin tablets or hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets for human use unless the physician or patient inquires of the pharmacist about the efficacy of ivermectin tablets or hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets.”

Critics of the bill have noted that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has not given approval for usage of the drugs. Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine have been divisive drugs and politically polarized throughout the pandemic.

“But, nevertheless, the Missouri legislature has chosen to ‘own the libs’ by issuing a gag order against every pharmacist in this state from offering their medical opinion on taking either one of those medications—even if it could kill their patient,” wrote former Democratic nominee Lindsey Simmons in a May 12 Twitter post.

Although 22 countries across the world have approved the use of ivermectin in treating COVID-19, the FDA maintains that the current data show the drug to be ineffective. Large doses can be dangerous, it says.

recent study published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases analyzed a national federated database of adults that compared ivermectin with the FDA-approved COVID-19 medication, remdesivir.

After using propensity score matching and adjusting for potential confounders, ivermectin was associated with reduced mortality vs remdesivir,” researchers wrote. “To our knowledge, this is the largest association study of patients with COVID-19, mortality, and ivermectin.”

According to The Associated Press, Missouri state Rep. Patty Lewis, a Democrat, agreed to the bill to satisfy a group of conservatives in the Senate. She added that the bill will not change anything significantly as medical boards do not engage in punishing doctors who prescribe drugs legally.

end

A MUST MUST VIEW… DR DAVID MARTIN

Must see

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello9:34 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

https://rumble.com/v153ybt-dr.-david-e-martin-gives-explosive-jaw-dropping-information-in-canadian-zoo.html

Amish Community

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello7:29 AM (23 minutes ago)
to me, Mark

END

GLOBAL ISSUES/

end

VACCINE IMPACT


FDA Authorizes Pfizer Booster COVID Shot for Children Between the Ages of 5 and 11

May 18, 2022 1:16 pm

Today (May 17, 2022), the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) amended the emergency use authorization (EUA) and authorized a booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 shot for children 5 through 11 years of age. The booster shot is 10 micrograms, which is the same dosage for this age group in their primary series and a third of that given to people aged 12 and older.  Research shows that there is no benefit to children receiving a COVID shot, and in fact, the shots can cause potential harm, adverse effects and death. According to Pfizer’s own study trial data, the chance of death in children from the shot is 107 times higher than death from COVID. In fact, the CDC recently reported higher COVID-19 case rates have been recorded among fully vaccinated children than unvaccinated in the age group 5-11 since February 2022. That’s the first time CDC recorded a higher case rate among fully vaccinated young children since data was first collected in December 2021.  In addition, the Office for National Statistics revealed that children are up to 52 times more likely to die following the COVID-19 injection than children who have not received it. In December 2021, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published a dataset containing details on “deaths by vaccination status in England” per 100,000 people between January 1, 2021 and Oct 31, 2021. The data revealed that vaccinated children aged 10-14 were statistically 10 times more likely to die than unvaccinated children, and vaccinated teenagers aged 15-19 were statistically two times more likely to die than unvaccinated teenagers. 

Read More…


Big Pharma-funded Paper Recommends Taxing the Unvaccinated

May 18, 2022 5:46 pm

A new paper published by Oxford University’s Center for Business Taxation discusses – and in the end supports – the idea of a special tax levied on those who decline to be “vaccinated” against “Covid19”. The paper’s authors argue that a vaccine-related tax would be “justified” because “Taxes on behaviour that is considered undesirable are nothing new“. And that even if the “vaccines” do cause serious harm to some people… “some states do adopt policies that can lead to serious harm in exceptional cases when they consider that the benefits outweigh the costs“ Yes, you did read that right.

Read More…


END

Michael Every//

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

Rabobank: If You Thought People Were Angry In 2016, Just Wait…

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 10:15 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Everything Is Awesome

In the final part of my ‘Every “Everything” series’ of Daily titles, I am obviously being sarcastic. Everything is obviously not awesome. My ‘bond yields AND commodities’ matrix was spot on again yesterday: stocks collapsed (S&P -4%, NASDAQ – 4.7%) as US retail giants spoke about the impact of inflation on consumers, and China saw worse sales of mobile phones than had been feared; US 2-year Treasury yields tumbled from an intra-day peak of 2.73% to close at 2.67%, and 10-years from 3.01% to 2.88%, bull flattening the curve; AND oil and most major commodities tumbled. Bitcoin ‘only’ came off around 3%, while the US dollar was on the back foot –wrongly– because if you think the US is in trouble, allow me to introduce you to *everyone else*!  

All this as the Fed threatened to raise rates “beyond neutral”: and yet if it doesn’t act to follow, commodities and stocks will go back up again, and we rinse and repeat.

I want to make two points today. First, that so many mainstream market forecasters started the year by saying that everything was awesome. (My early January 2022 theme was “Unravelling,” and that, “Whatever your forecast is, it’s already wrong.”) Most ignored the obvious threat of war in Ukraine, and even after it started soon shifted back into default mode: “What happens in Donbas, stays in Donbas,” said one voice recently. ‘Ah, but this is the Fed, not Ukraine!’, some might retort. Except that the supply-side issues exacerbated by the latter are what the former openly says it is now forced to respond to on the demand side.

Even many of those who correctly predicted an ‘unawesome’ year in 2022 are arguably not grasping what the “demand destruction” implied in lower bond yields, lower stocks, and lower prices of *inelastic* commodities, really means.

It surely means a deep, not a shallow recession; a surge in unemployment; an asset-price crash in asset-driven economies; and further humiliation of “experts” and the “consensus view” of how things should be done. Worse, it means being cold this winter, because one cannot afford to heat one’s home, and businesses closing because they cannot pass on higher energy costs. Worst of all it means hunger: a report shows one in four Britons are skipping meals due to inflation already. Now fire lots of them too to bring prices down, eh?

You thought people were angry in 2016? You thought they were angry during ‘science-based’ Covid lockdowns and restrictions? You thought they were angry when *nobody* built *anything* back better anywhere afterwards? Or when they were censored on social media? Or when a major war started and upended things? Try making everyone –even billionaires!– much poorer all at once too, because that is what is happening.

I saw a comment yesterday that inflation may shut down talk of fiscal stimulus for years, as it will be blamed. Perhaps in the circle of “experts” who led us here, yes. Yet in that case we sink deeper into neo-Dickensian socio-economic/political instability. To my mind, it is more likely that we see massive new populism. First of all, towards emergency stimulus that at least echoes what was done in 2020. The Daily Mail flags ‘Ministers prepare plan to help three million of the lowest paid, offer relief on energy bills and announce pledge to ease burden on business’: that is from people who think you can eat a meal for 30p. Other countries will be far more generous – or their societies will be far more rancorous.

That’s in the rich West – try emerging markets where food and fuel are a far higher share of the day-to-day consumption basket – which sometimes still is literally a basket. We are talking malnutrition and starvation to bring the “demand destruction” implied in lower bond yields. You think that will happen quietly? Yes, it will be ‘risk off’ in a big way, so again supports lower bond yields in core markets, but that does not capture what that actually implies geopolitically.

So, as EM governments wait for the likes of the “very concerned about global hunger” Janet Yellen to come up with a plan that actually addresses these issues, they will have to step in, whether they can afford it or not: hungry people are not known for their patience. That means more commodity export bans. It means more subsidies. Both are inflationary.

Moreover, Bloomberg today has an article floating the idea of the PBOC dropping ‘helicopter money’ into citizens’ bank accounts using the new eRMB. That is the polar opposite of all Chinese supply-side-pretending-to-be-demand-side stimulus to date. If it happens, everything changes everywhere all at once. It means higher Chinese growth; but it means higher inflation too; and far higher GLOBAL inflation against a supply-side shock, which would require more of a Fed rates response; and if such local spending also pushes China towards a trade deficit, it also then collapses their currency as the Fed hikes.    

Relatedly, my second point is that while one can blame fiscal expenditure for part of the current inflation, there is a far stronger argument to be made for rising populism to be channelled towards mercantilism and industrial policy than 1980’s style neoliberalism and belt-tightening.

Where fiscal stimulus went wrong, and we *all* went wrong, was focusing on the DEMAND side when everything is about the *SUPPLY* side.

Let’s go back to basics. I don’t mean Say’s Law and supply creating its own demand, which is not always true, but rather that almost every politician is guided by an economist, who is guided by their training, which focuses on how to keep GDP growing; and that GDP is DEMAND side, which is mostly driven by consumption in the West, and even many emerging markets.

If you work in markets ask yourself honestly, when was the last GDP print you looked at from the SUPPLY side, other than in an emerging market that, annoyingly, ‘doesn’t have good demand-side data’? Do you even know the detailed breakdown of what the economy you cover actually supplies? How much oil, gas, coal, or green energy compared to local needs? How much food, and of what kinds? How many tonnes of minerals or metals? How many low, medium, and high tech goods? How many services? How can one cover an economy and not know this in depth?!

Easy! Because the market is only interested in keeping up consumption, and the answer is always found via rates (usually lower, creating asset bubbles and matching debt we ignore until we can’t – and then do it all again), or fiscal policy (which was just shown to work too well when it doesn’t involve top-income tax cuts), or, rarely, regulatory reforms.

In markets, we don’t care about who actually makes things, because energy, food, goods, and services all just arrive by magic from somewhere, like home-cooked meals delivered to a teenager’s bedroom door, or a food delivery service to a trading floor busily bidding up the price of the staple commodities we all need to live because they can’t make a high enough return from government bond yields. All we have to do is to focus on how to keep people spending,… right?

Wrong! We *all* need to be doing more of what China has been doing – to focus on the SUPPLY SIDE. Which, given their Marxist (for those who have read him, and understand the difference between ‘productive’ and ‘fictitious’ capital) and state-capitalist (for those who have read Hamilton) bent, is what they do best, and we do worst.

Guess what? We can do it too when in a pinch – but not before, sadly.

Yesterday, US President Biden signed an executive order using the 1950’s-era Defence Production Act to compel US firms to increase the supply of infant formula, and allowing the use of Department of Defence planes to ensure delivery as soon as possible. Well done. Really. Now do the same for all of the key components demanded by the US economy. You can use fiscal spending to do it: just not on anything on the demand side.

There is clearly a desperate need for more energy supply – but no more oil to be had, and no more refineries even if there were. Why not use the DPA to build more refineries? Regrettably, even if it happens, it will take years to see results. That will keep the Fed looking at the demand side ahead – and so markets under pressure.

Of course, Biden is trying to push a Green New Deal and so is the EU, which yesterday announced plans for a ‘massive’ increase in green energy to help end reliance on Russia. Welcome to the supply side of GDP!

However, too late. It is just sinking in in Brussels (and the US) that solar panels –besides being very un-green to make– are made in China; which is where most rare earths are processed; and most of the mineral supply-chains for electric vehicles lead there, with existing supply sewn up. Today China is talking about maintaining its subsidies for EV production, which were to end this year: so, it maintains economies of scale AND physical supply chains, while Europe and the US are left with PowerPoint presentations and catchy phrases like ‘Green Transition’ and ‘Build Back Better’(?)

As an early American populist proclaimed, “You shall not press down upon the brow of labour this crown of thorns, you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.” Which was all about loose vs. tight fiscal and monetary policy, which is always political. Now we see monetary-policy tightening as people go cold and hungry, and a technocratic reference to “demand destruction” via the supply vs. demand cross if fiscal policy does nothing – and yet worse inflation if it does anything.

Someone is going to have to spend a whole lot more, not less, and on a whole lot more supply, not demand –and in a whole new trading network– if they want to ensure that stocks, bond yields, and commodities don’t go down together as angry mobs rise up.

Counterintuitively to some, as all this transpires the US dollar alone will remain bid – even if it is merely just the least dirty shirt in the dirty laundry basket.

I now leave most market forecasters to return to their focus on GDP by demand while predicting a weaker US dollar, rapid recoveries in asset prices, no deglobalisation, and of course no angry populism, while they wait for someone to deliver their lunch – after someone else sweated to grow it, process it, package it, and rush to get it to them for very low wages. Isn’t it awesome?

end

7. OIL ISSUES//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA

 

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0517 UP 0.0044 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 127.94   UP 0.016 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2433 UP   0.0088

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 10.99 POINTS UP 0.36%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  DOWN 523.60 PTS OR 2.54%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.66%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL  RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 523.60 PTS OR 2.54%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.99 PTS UP 0.36% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  1.66% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 508.60 OR 2.54%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1830.90

silver:$21.75

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 103.41  DOWN .455  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.08%  DOWN 6  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.232% DOWN 0    AND 9/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.03%// DOWN 5   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.89  DOWN 5   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.941.%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0591  UP 0.0177    or 177 basis points

USA/Japan: 127.36 DOWN 0.556  OR YEN UP  56  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2499 UP 0.01542 OR 154  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0079 OR 79 BASIS pts  to 1.2809

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7138  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.7218

TURKISH LIRA:  15.87  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.232

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 8  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  2.805% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.012 DOWN 6 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 102.79 DOWN 107   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 146.44 PTS OR 0.91%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 154.74  POINTS OR 1.10%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 98.37 PTS OR 1.55% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  DOWN 85.50 OR 1.01%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 65.43 PTS OR  0.27%

WTI Oil price 109.70   12: EST

Brent Oil:  109.89   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  62.04  UP 1 & 40/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.941

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0592 UP   .0119   OR UP 119 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2491 UP .01475  or  148 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 127.73 DOWN 0.198//YEN UP 20 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2800 UP .01604 (CDN dollar UP 160 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 112.37

Brent OIL:  111.97

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.850 DOWN 3 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.061  DOWN 1  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 15.87

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE:  61.90 DOWN  1 AND 54/100 ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP 1 &  54/100 ROUBLES/USA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 226.81 PTS OR .95%%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 29.66 PTS OR 0.26%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 29.37 DOWN 1,59 PTS (5.14%)

GLD: 171.91 UP 2.49 PTS OR 1.47%

SLV/ 20.27 UP 54 PTS OR 2.79%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Jump As Dollar Dumps After Dismal Data

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Another day, another set of shitty data piles on the “growth scare / recession” narrative and US Macro Surprise index plunges into negative territory, at its weakest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

Following their worst day since 2020, US equities roller-coastered once again, rebounding after overnight weakness in the European session but still whipsawing during the US session. Weakness in the last hour left only Small Caps in the green for the day…

The S&P traded down to its Bear Market trigger level once again and bounced…

There were 3 major swings in buying pressure today…

Source: Bloomberg

Broadly speaking, stocks are en route to their 8th straight weekly drop. Small Caps ramped up to unch on the week today, but faded back…

To get some context, the market capitalization of FANG stocks is now down a stunning $2 trillion from its record highs in Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX fell today after spiking yesterday after VIX-piration at the open. We remind readers that there is a sizable OpEx tomorrow…

Treasuries were bid today led by the short-end (2Y -6bps, 30Y -0.5bps). On the week, only 2Y is higher in yield with 10Y outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Yields tumbled on the weak Philly Fed and Jobless Claims and rebounded during the day session…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was clubbed like a baby seal today, back near FOMC day spike lows now…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rebounded dramatically from $29,000 to tag $30,500 at intraday highs today…

Source: Bloomberg

Also of note, Bitcoin decoupled from Nasdaq today…

Source: Bloomberg

As the dollar dumped, gold pumped higher, getting near $1850 intraday, extending gains after its bounce off $1800…

Oil prices rebounded in the afternoon, with front-month WTI back up near $110…

Finally, we note that US equities (cyclicals vs defensives) are now pricing in a dramatic slowdown in growth (ISM Manufacturing ~48)…

Will Powell keep hiking to stem inflation as a recession strikes? That’s why Stagflation is the central bankers’ nemesis.

END

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING/

II)USA data

Looks like we are heading for a severe recession

(zerohedge)

Initial Jobless Claims Surge To 4 Month High, Philly Fed Plunges

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 08:41 AM

It appears the ‘strongest labor market ever’ is showing signs of stress as the number of Americans seeking first time jobless benefits surged to 218k last week – its highest since mid-January…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest 8-week rise in jobless claims since the growth scare in Dec 2020/Jan 2021… and no this is not seasonal…

Kentucky, California, and Pennsylvania dominated the rise in jobless claims…

This labor market pain echoes weakness seen in recent survey data – such as ISM Manufacturing and Empire Fed and this morning we saw Philly Fed’s Business Outlook  survey plunge from 17.6 to 2.6 (massively missing expectations of 15.0).

That is the weakest since June 2020… with Employment and the outlook sliding…

  • May prices paid fell to 78.9 vs 84.6
  • New orders rose to 22.1 vs 17.8
  • Employment fell to 25.5 vs 41.4
  • Shipments rose to 35.3 vs 19.1
  • Delivery time fell to 17.5 vs 17.9
  • Inventories fell to 3.2 vs 11.9
  • Prices received fell to 51.7 vs 55.0
  • Unfilled orders rose to 17.9 vs 5.7
  • Average workweek fell to 16.1 vs 20.8
  • Six-month outlook fell to 2.5 vs 8.2
  • Six-month outlook for capex fell to 9.6 vs 19.9

So sentiment is slumping, financial conditions are tightening (at their tightest since Dec 2018’s flip-flop), and now the jobs market is floundering.

And The Fed has 10 more rate-hikes to go this year?!

end

Housing is a big part of GDP and now we witness USA existing home sales slump to two year lows and the NAR warns that more declines are immminent

(zerohedge_

US Existing Home Sales Slump To 2-Year Lows, NAR Warns “More Declines Imminent”

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 10:07 AM

Soaring mortgage rates, plunging mortgage applications, housing starts and permits slumping, homebuilder sentiment hammered, and now labor market stress… it is no surprise that analysts expected another monthly drop in existing home sales in April. US existing home sales fell 2.4% MoM (worse than the 2.3% MoM drop expected), Worse still, this drop was from a revised-lower 3.0% MoM drop in March (from -2.7% MoM)

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 3rd straight monthly decline in existing home sales and the total SAAR is the lowest since June 2020…

First-time buyers accounted for 28% of sales last month, down from 30% in March, and underscoring the affordability challenges that have been pricing many Americans out of the market.

“Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months, and we’ll likely return to the pre-pandemic home sales activity after the remarkable surge over the past two years.”

The median selling price rose 14.8% from a year earlier, to a record $391,200 in April, led by gains in the South.

Cash sales represented 26% of all transactions in April, down slightly from the prior month but still elevated. Investors, who typically buy in cash and are therefore less sensitive to mortgage rates, made up 17% of the market.

Yun also noted the rare state of the current marketplace.

“The market is quite unusual as sales are coming down, but listed homes are still selling swiftly, and home prices are much higher than a year ago,” said Yun.

“Moreover, an increasing number of buyers with short tenure expectations could opt for 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages, thereby assuring fixed payments over five years because of the rate reset,” he added.

“The cash buyers, not impacted by mortgage rate changes, remain elevated.”

The number of homes for sale climbed from March but was down 10.4% from a year ago. At the current pace it would take 2.2 months to sell all the homes on the market, up from 1.9 in the prior month. Realtors see anything below five months of supply as a sign of a tight market.

“Housing supply has started to improve, albeit at an extremely sluggish pace,” said Yun.

Sales dropped in the South and West from the prior month, though rose in the Northeast and Midwest.

For the eighth consecutive month, the South recorded the highest pace of price appreciation in comparison to the other three regions. Additionally, the South is the only region to report year-over-year double-digit price gains.

Judging by the surge in mortgage rates, this slump in existing home sales is far from over…

If the chart is correct, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid warns that “it will be a very painful few months ahead” for homeowners.

So, as Reid concludes rhetorically, will the Fed need to lift rates such that mortgages are far above levels most home buyers have grown accustomed to, ultimately slowing blistering price growth? Or will the cracks appear much sooner (spoiler alert: yes).

Is the housing crash starting?

END

Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing gauge falls to lowest reading in two years

May 19, 2022 at 8:48 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

May’s index of current activity slumps to 2.6 versus 15 expected

The numbers: The Philadelphia Fed said Thursday its gauge of regional manufacturing activity fell sharply to 2.6 in May from 17.6 in the prior month.

This is the lowest level of activity in two years. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected a 15 reading. Any reading above zero indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector.

Key details: The headline index is based on a single stand-alone question about business conditions unlike the national ISM manufacturing index which is a composite based on components. The subcomponents looked a little stronger.

The barometer on new orders increased 4.3 points to 22.1. The shipments index jumped 16.2 points to 35.3, its highest level since last October.

The employment index fell 16 points to 25.5 in May.

Firms continued to report increases in prices for inputs and their own products. Firms continue to see rising prices over the next year, with the median forecast for the rate of consumer inflation at 6.5%, up from 5% when the question was last asked in February.

The measure on six-month business outlook slumped 5.7 points to 2.5 in May.

Big picture: The Philadelphia Fed index is one of several regional manufacturing gauges that offer timely reads of the manufacturing sector.

Earlier this week, the similar Empire State survey released by the New York Fed showed manufacturing activity contracted, with the business conditions index plunging 36.2 points to negative 11.6 in May.

Economists said the moderation in activity came from slower demand due to higher prices, broken supply chains and shortages.

In April, the national ISM manufacturing index fell to 55.4%, the lowest reading since July 2020. The data for May will be released on June 1.

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

END.

iii)a.  USA economic stories

the silver reddit boys finally got toe Melvin capital:  they will wind down after continual gigantic losses

(zerohedge)

“I Have Given Everything I Could”: Melvin Capital Calls It A Day, Will Wind Down Fund After Gigantic Losses

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 – 05:46 PM

Having suffered historic loss after historic loss, and dropping 23% through the end of April after plunging 39% in a catastrophic, for the hedge fund 2021, Melvin Capital went for the Hail Mary last month when it tried to sneak a “high water mark” exemption and get paid a performance fee by his massively underwater investors, even though the fund is like half a mile below its high water mark. It didn’t work when LPs unanimously told Gabe Plotkin to do something anatomically impossible, and so – having run out of options – the “superstar” hedge fund investor, who Steve Cohen said was one of the best traders he had ever met, decided to call it a day.

According to Bloomberg, Mevlin – the once high-flying hedge fund that lost billions of dollars after its bearish wagers were caught up in a Reddit-fueled short squeeze – told investors that it plans to wind down funds and return cash to investors.

“The past 17 months has been an incredibly trying time for the firm and you, our investors,” founder Gabe Plotkin wrote.

“I have given everything I could, but more recently that has not been enough to deliver the returns you should expect. I now recognize that I need to step away from managing external capital.”

Actually, it’s more like Gabe – who took a $2.75 billion in rescue funding from Citadel, Point72 Asset Management and others in early 2021 when a historic short squeeze led to over $7 billion in losses, or 53% of his capital in a few days – had taken as much as he could including his $44 million Miami mansion…

… when the Fed was lifting all boats, and now that the Fed no longer is backstopping him and every other mediocre fund manager who is clueless how to navigate a market that – gasp – doesn’t always go up, Plotkin decided to take the easy way out and return what little money was left in Melvin while naturally keeping over a decade’s worth of “performance” fees, which amounts in the billions, even if the average return of someone who put money into the fund on day one has underperformed the S&P (Melvin’s CAGR is 12%) which one could have bought in 2014 for $0.

His full letter below:

Dear Fellow Investors:

As you are aware, over the past few months, we have sought to reposition the Funds and Melvin Capital Management LP in order to continue to be a long-term partner with you. During this time, we solicited feedback from a wide range of our investors. I appreciate the thoughtful input we received. More recently, as we were beginning to coalesce around a specific path forward, I took the opportunity to step back and assess the Funds, the portfolio, the markets and our team.

I have worked tirelessly for 20 years to try to be the best I could be and to build and lead an exceptional team of professionals. I truly appreciate the effort our team has put in and I recognize their commitment to our research process has often required significant personal sacrifice. Being a steward of your capital requires an unrelenting focus. I am proud of what our team has accomplished since 2007.

As you all know, however, the past 17 months has been an incredibly trying time for the firm and you, our investors. I have given everything I could, but more recently that has not been enough to deliver the returns you should expect. I now recognize that I need to step away from managing external capital.

Following consultation with the Board of Directors of the offshore funds, I have decided that the appropriate next step is to wind down the Funds by fully liquidating the Funds’ assets and accounts and returning cash to all investors. The anticipated timing of the wind-down is set forth on the attached schedule. Throughout this process, we will be focused on the protection of your capital; we already have raised a substantial amount of cash and materially reduced the Funds’ exposure. As a reminder, internal capital collectively represents the Funds’ largest investor. We will not be charging management fees as of June 1.

I am grateful for the trust that you have placed in me and our team. I am available over the coming weeks to answer any questions you may have.

Plotkin started Melvin at the end of 2014 after leaving Steve Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management, and posted returns of about 30% a year through 2020, thanks to the Fed’s QE. The party rapidly ended when the Steve Cohen protege was outsmarted by a few thousands apes inJanuary 2021; that’s when a group of ragtag retail investors instituted a short squeeze (orchestrated by Senvest Partners) against Melvin’s shorts, including GameStop, pushing the hedge fund to a 55% loss.

Finally, for those asking, here are Melvin’s holdings whose liquidation the market will be frontrunning asap.

-END

Looks like the USA will undergo a housing crash

(zerohedge)

Is The Housing Crash Starting?

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 – 11:05 PM

Last week, we shared extensive empirical evidence that the US housing market is starting to crack when we quoted regional managers from John Burns Real Estate Consulting, all of whom agreed on one (or more) of three things: i) Demand is slowing, namely entry-level due to payment shock; ii) Investors are pulling back; and iii) Ripple effect of rising rates starting to hit move-up market. Here are some excerpts:

  • Dallas builder: “Interest lists are shrinking or buyers are truly pausing.”
  • Houston builder: “Many first-time buyers simply no longer qualify with the increase in interest rates, as their debt-to-income ratio gets out of whack.”
  • San Antonio builder: “Traffic has been cut in half since the hike in rates.”
  • Raleigh builder: “Investor activity has slowed dramatically.”
  • Provo builder: “Investors are evaluating the investment more critically than in the past.”
  • Washington DC builder: “Traffic half what it was in March. Worried about first time buyers. Many fewer REAL buyers than number of people collected on interest list last 6 months. Certainly more attempts [from buyers] to negotiate.”
  • Seattle builder: “Pause by a large population of buyers. To achieve our desired [sales] pace, we had to make price adjustments. Rates starting to knock people out of qualification.”

Needless to say, a housing crash would be a bad thing for the US economy for which the housing sector is of paramount importance: a house is usually the biggest asset in American’s savings, comprises a large chunk of the labor force, and is a large contributor to inflation indices. That’s precisely why the Fed, hell bent on tipping the US economy into a recession as fast as possible to reverse inflation, would want nothing more than a housing recession.

But what if Powell instead gets a housing crash on par with 2007?

If that’s what is coming, we may be able to sniff it out soon in this big week for housing data in a US housing market which has been, until now, red hot. As DB’s Jim Reid writes, today’s data showed that building remains strong, with houses under construction hitting an all time high, even if pending home sales tumbled as did mortgage applications.

Tomorrow it gets even more interesting: on Thursday morning we get a look at how new home construction translates to sales, which, given the precipitous climb in mortgage rates, could start facing some demand destruction. Which brings us to today’s Chart of the Day from Reid, which shows that mortgage rates have taken off with the Fed’s pivot, and the post-Covid boom in existing home sales has started to wobble. Meanwhile, consensus expectations marked by the X show they will decline further tomorrow.

If the chart is correct, Reid warns that “it will be a very painful few months ahead” (for homeowners, not so much for investors as the stock market will sniff out the coming recession and soar, as it frontruns the Fed’s next easing).

Of course, the bulls will still point to the strong fundamentals which underly housing: like other sectors, there is a big supply versus demand imbalance as inventories available for sale are still near historic lows, labor in the construction sector is constrained with immigration down, and millennials are aging into their peak earning and home-buying years. All while consumer balance sheets are strong.

So, as Reid concludes rhetorically, will the Fed need to lift rates such that mortgages are far above levels most home buyers have grown accustomed to, ultimately slowing blistering price growth? Or will the cracks appear much sooner (spoiler alert: yes).

One thing is certain: Housing, and its fate, will serve as the earliest guide to the Fed, rates and the US economy.

END

iii b USA//inflation stories/log jams etc/DIESEL

Diesel costs deliver a huge body blow to the trucking industry and also impacts the broader economy

(Mahoney..Freightwaves)

Diesel Costs Deliver Body Blow To Trucking Industry, Impacting Broader Economy

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 – 07:25 PM

By Noi Mahoney of Freightwaves

With diesel prices remaining elevated — forcing significant costs onto shippers and trucking companies — the impact of fuel costs on inflation could put a dent in consumer spending, according to experts.

Economist Anirban Basu said the elevated price of diesel fuel damages the near-term U.S. economic outlook and “renders the chance of recession in 2023 much greater.”

“These high diesel prices mean that despite the Federal Reserve’s early stage efforts to curb inflationary pressures, for now, inflationary pressures will run rampant through the economy,” Basu, CEO of Baltimore-based Sage Policy Group, told FreightWaves. 

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve announced a half-percentage-point increase in interest rates, the largest hike in over two decades. The U.S. inflation rate is at 8.3%, near 40-year highs.

Basu said consumer spending remains strong, even with elevated diesel prices, but that could change as shippers and trucking companies eventually must pass higher fuel costs on to the public. 

“One of the things we’ve been seeing in the U.S., particularly on the East Coast, is that diesel fuel inventories have been shrinking, which suggests that despite all this inflationary pressure, there’s still a lot of consumer activity, still lots of trucks on the road and the supply is unable to keep up with demand,” Basu said. “The higher price of diesel fuel will become embedded in the cost of everything consumers purchase.” 

Prices of fresh produce rising

Jordan DeWart, a managing director at RedWood Mexico, based in Laredo, Texas, said the types of consumer goods that could be immediately affected by higher diesel prices include fresh produce. Redwood Mexico is part of Chicago-based Redwood Logistics.

“With produce, that’s typically more in the spot rate business, and any of those smaller trucking companies are going to be heavily impacted by fuel costs,” DeWart said.

The U.S. imported more than $15 billion in fresh produce from Mexico in 2021, including avocados, tomatoes, grapes, bell peppers and strawberries, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“Everything coming northbound from Mexico through Laredo, the rates have been very sustained, but fuel prices keep going up, presumably with any differences being absorbed by the trucking companies in the spot market,” DeWart said. “When we talk to asset-based truckers, especially the smaller companies, they’re really feeling the pinch.”

It’s not only cross-border operators feeling the pinch. Growers and shippers in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley are also suffering because of increased fuel costs, said Dante Galeazzi, president of the Texas International Produce Association (TIPA).

“Our growers, shippers, importers, distributors … basically our entire supply chain has been and continues to be impacted by rising fuel costs,” Galeazzi told FreightWaves. “Between one-third to one-half of the costs for fresh produce is the logistics; you can see how quickly increases in that expense category can impact the base price.”

The Rio Grande Valley is the epicenter of the Lone Star State’s fresh produce industry, stretching across the southeastern tip of Texas along the U.S.-Mexico border. More than 35 types of fruits and vegetables are grown in the valley, which contributes more than $1 billion to the state economy annually.

“More concerning is that this wave of fuel increases is in line with the statistic that our industry is paying anywhere from 70% to 150% more year-over-year for OTR shipping,” Galeazzi said. 

TIPA, which is based in Mission, Texas, represents growers, domestic shippers, import shippers, specialty shippers, distributors and material and service providers. 

Right now, Rio Grande Valley growers and shippers are absorbing higher input costs instead of passing them on to consumers, but that could soon change, Galeazzi said.

“While the fresh fruit and vegetable industry continues to experience rising input costs across the board (seed, agrochemicals, labor, fuel, packaging, etc.), we have yet to experience sufficient upstream returns associated with those expense increases,” Galeazzi said. “Our industry is citing an 18% to 22% anecdotal increase to overhead costs. Meanwhile food inflation for fresh produce is hovering around 7%. That means the costs are slowly being felt by consumers, but it’s not yet at a commensurate level with input expenses.”

Diesel fuel prices at all time highs

The cost of diesel continues to soar across the country. Diesel pump prices averaged $5.61 a gallon nationwide, according to weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). That’s 51% higher than diesel prices nationwide in January. 

California averaged the highest fuel prices across the U.S., at $6 per gallon of gas and $6.56 per gallon for diesel, according to AAA. Diesel prices are also at an all-time high of $6.41 in New York.

The higher prices of diesel fuel and gasoline are being caused by a combination of factors, including surging demand and reduced refining capacity, along with the disruption to global markets caused by COVID-19, the current lockdown in China and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, said Rory Johnston, a managing director at Toronto-based research firm Price Street.

“The overarching oil market is feeling much tighter because of the Russian-Ukraine situation,” Johnston, also writer of the newsletter Commodity Context, told FreightWaves. “What we’ve seen is a larger immediate impact from the loss of Russian refined products; in addition to exporting millions and millions of barrels a day of crude oil, Russia also exported a lot of refined products, most notably middle distillates, like gasoline or diesel.”

Several refineries on the East Coast — including facilities in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada — scaled back during the early days of the pandemic, which has hurt diesel capacity, Johnston said.

“There was also a refinery in Philadelphia that exploded just prior to the COVID-19 period starting,” Johnston said. “There’s not enough refining capacity on the global level, and particularly in the West right now and particularly in the northeastern U.S.”

He said he doesn’t foresee any relief from increasing diesel prices over the next few months or more.

“Things are going to be really tight for at least the next year, barring any kind of economic recession and some kind of demand slowdown materially,” Johnston said. 

DeWart said trucking companies that don’t have a fuel surcharge component or contract in place and are depending on spot rates could be in big trouble over the next several months as diesel prices either keep rising or stay higher than average. 

“Their fuel costs keep going up, but they’re really not able to negotiate higher rates right now with a really tight spot market,” DeWart said. “It’s really impacting small trucking companies, anyone that decided to kind of play the spot market, rather than being locked in contracted rates. They’re really feeling the pain right now.”

DeWart said for trucking companies, it’s critical to get some type of fuel reimbursement program in place “just to protect themselves in case the cost of fuel goes even higher.”

 

iv)swamp stories

day 2 on Michael Sussman trial.  Does not look good for Sussman et al.

(Techno Fog/Reactionary)

Day 2 Rundown Of The Michael Sussmann Trial

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 – 10:45 PM

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

Day 2 of the Michael Sussmann trial started with some housekeeping. Here are the rulings of note:

  1. Robby Mook, who has a scheduled vacation in Spain, will testify on Friday. He’s a defense witness.
  2. Evidence of Steele’s meetings with Sussmann and Fusion GPS in July 2016, and his tasking to conduct research on Alfa Bank, according to the judge, “can come in.” The judge observed they are “relevant to Mr. Sussmann’s activities for the campaign and his attorney-client relationship, as far as it went, with the campaign as it relates to Alfa-Bank.”

Onto the witnesses. We start with the short testimony of Deborah Fine.

Fine began working for the Hillary Clinton Campaign (aka Hillary for America) as “one of several deputy general counsels” in May 2016. She answered to Marc Elias, the campaign’s general counsel.

After being presented with calendar entries confirming her daily calls with Fusion GPS, she testified that she worked with them as “part of my work for the campaign.” In fact, she regularly interacted with Glenn Simpson and co-founder Peter Fritsch. Fine conceded that Fusion GPS were seemingly free to conduct research on their own, stating she “personally didn’t direct them” to accomplish specific tasks.

On cross, she admitted she didn’t now if Marc Elias spoke to anyone else at the Clinton Campaign about the activities of Fusion GPS. She was out of the loop regarding efforts to bring the Alfa Bank allegations to the NY Times or to the FBI.

Testimony of Laura Seago

Laura Seago worked with Fusion GPS back in 2016, where she reported directly to Fritsch and Simpson. She has been granted immunity by the Special Counsel for her testimony. She understood Marc Elias to be the Fusion GPS contact for the Clinton Campaign.

Seago stated she was present at a summer 2016 meeting with “Mr. Elias, my colleague Peter Fritsch from Fusion GPS, Mr. Sussmann, and Mr. Sussmann’s client Rodney Joffe.” As to the nature of that meeting:

“The general purpose, to the best of my recollection, was to discuss allegations of communications between the Trump organization and Alfa-Bank.”

Once the Alfa Bank allegations were developed, Seago met with journalist Franklin Foer (who would write the October 31, 2016 Alfa Bank article in Slate). The purpose of that meeting was to discuss “the allegations of communication between the Trump Organization and Alfa-Bank.”

They sold Foer on the Alfa Bank data at that meeting, telling him there were “highly credible computer scientists who seemed to think that these allegations were credible.” These “credible computer scientists” would ultimately be cited in Foer’s article. She admitted that Fusion GPS did nothing to validate the DNS records – something she said was “beyond my capabilities.”

Seago was walked-through a number of e-mails she had with Joffe and other members of Fusion GPS. Some of these were privileged (the Joffe e-mails) so the Special Counsel was unable to discuss with Seago the contents. However, she did know about contents of the Joffe e-mails generally:

Finally, she admitted to understanding whose interests were served by planting the Alfa Bank story.

Now we get to Marc Elias.

Elias meet weekly with Fusion GPS at his office. Typically Peter Fritsch and Glenn Simpson would be in attendance. Generally, those meetings involved discussions of Elias’s “needs” and Fusion GPS’s “work” – which included what Elias described as the “unusual connections” the Trump Campaign had with Russia. They would also report to Elias on their findings related to Trump during the election.

Notably, Elias mentioned Jake Sullivan as someone at the Clinton Campaign who knew about the Trump/Russia research (though there is uncertainty as to whether Sullivan knew about Fusion’s activities). Elias would give the campaign these updates.

A brief aside: Jake Sullivan’s wife is Margaret Goodlander – who serves as counsel to Attorney General Merrick Garland. We understand that she has not recused herself from anything having to do with the Special Counsel’s investigation. We further understand that Goodlander is keeping close tabs on Durham’s investigation. We’ll report on that down the road…

Anyway, Elias also testified that the Clinton Campaign paid them (Perkins Coie) a “flat fee” for their legal services. Why is this important? Because it explains why Sussmann would block bill the Clinton Campaign (see tweet below). (“Block billing” is having a multi-hour entry with a generalized description. Example: “6.5 hours on confidential project.) For flat fee work, attorneys are generally allowed block billing because the client isn’t paying the hourly rate.

The Special Counsel then walked Elias through a number of billing entries/emails from and involving Sussmann. These included meetings with Elias, meetings with Joffe, and Fusion – and involved “the Alfa-Bank allegations.”

That concludes the morning session. We’ll update this post once we receive the afternoon transcript…

end

Judge Denies Former Clinton Lawyer’s Request For Mistrial

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 – 12:05 PM

Authored by John Haughey and Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge on May 19 denied a request for a mistrial from the former Hillary Clinton campaign lawyer who is on trial for allegedly lying to the FBI.

U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper, the Obama appointee overseeing the case, agreed to strike certain portions of testimony delivered Wednesday by Marc Elias but rejected the request for a mistrial.

Attorneys for Michael Sussmann, the lawyer who allegedly lied to the FBI, said Elias—another former Clinton campaign lawyer—strayed into improper areas, prejudicing the defendant.

When Elias was asked by the defense whether Sussmann took information on Clinton rival Donald Trump to the FBI on Sept. 19, 2016, on behalf of Clinton’s campaign, Elias said “from my standpoint, I would say no,” but also told the defense to ask Sussmann.

Portions of Mr. Elias’s answer—namely that ‘you’d have to ask Mr. Sussmann’ and ‘on behalf of’ is kind of like a subjective intent thing’—were nonresponsive and prejudicial. Although Mr. Sussmann was prejudiced even then, the defense declined to draw attention to the comment in the presence of the jury,” defense lawyers wrote in a motion filed later Wednesday.

Under cross-examination by prosecutors with Special Counsel John Durham’s team, Elias was asked about the topic three times. Two defense objections were sustained and after the third time, Cooper directed prosecutors to move on to other questions.

But the damage was already done, according to the defense.

“Mr. Elias’s nonresponsive testimony on cross examination, as well as the repeated, improper questioning by the special counsel, directly suggested to the jury that in order to answer a key question in this case—whether Mr. Sussmann went to the FBI on September 19, 2016, on behalf of a client—Mr. Sussmann would need to testify,” defense lawyers said. “But as the special counsel and Mr. Elias are well aware, a defendant in a criminal trial has a constitutional right not to testify. And commenting, either directly or indirectly, on a defendant’s decision to testify or not testify is entirely improper.”

Lawyers for Sussmann are asking for the court to strike the portions of Elias’s testimony dealing with the matter as well as the three questions prosecutors asked. They also want permission to give a transcript to the jury during closing arguments that shows the testimony “without the improper questions and answers.”

Andrew DeFilippis, part of Durham’s team, had said that the government “was very careful” to avoid questions that would elicit an improper response, adding, “It wasn’t the government that prompted that response.”

After Cooper agreed to strike portions of the testimony, Sean Berkowitz, one of Sussmann’s lawyers, said Sussmann has not yet decided whether he will testify during the trial.

Sussmann is accused of lying when he told James Baker, who in 2016 was the FBI’s general counsel, that he was not bringing derogatory information about Trump to the bureau on behalf of any clients. Prosecutors say Sussmann brought the allegations on behalf of Rodney Joffe, a technology executive who hoped to score a position in a Clinton administration, and the Clinton campaign.

Check back for updates.

end

The King Report (including swamp stories)

The King Report May 19, 2022 Issue 6763Independent View of the News
 
UK Inflation Jumps to 9% as Prices Surge Most since Thatcher Era – Fastest rate since March 1982
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/britain-s-inflation-rates-surges-to-a-40-year-high-of-9
 
UK inflation jumps to 40-year high of 9% (+2.5% m/m) as food and energy prices spiral
The 9% rise in the consumer price index is the highest since records began in 1989…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/uk-inflation-jumps-to-40-year-high-of-9percent-as-food-and-energy-prices-spiral.html
 
Target warns of margin hit as rising costs dent profit, shares slump 26%
Q1 net profit falls 52% to $1.01 bln; Adj. profit of $2.19/share misses estimates of $3.92
Warned of a bigger margin this year hit due to rising fuel and freight costs…  http://reut.rs/3MsjMQO
(Revenue: $25.17B vs. $24.49B expected)
 
Target’s dismal earnings and warning about inflation squeezing margins unnerved equity types.  Inflation killing margins has been an unfamiliar concept for most traders, investors, economists, and analysts
@MacroAlf: US high-yield credit spreads blowing up today.  We just surpassed the 2018 highs (490 bps), and it seems we are headed for the 600 bps ”global growth panic” level seen in 2016.
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1526948363798732800
 
Mortgage demand plummets as interest rates hover near 13-year high
Mortgage applications to purchase a home dropped 12% on a weekly basis
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-demand-plummets-interest-rates-near-13-year-high
 
U.S. housing market cooling as building permits tumble, starts fallBuilding permits decline 3.2% in AprilSingle-family permits drop 4.6%; multi-family fall 1.0%Housing starts slip 0.2%; single-family dives 7.3%https://www.reuters.com/business/us-building-permits-dive-april-housing-starts-fall-2022-05-18/
 
Elon Musk on Tuesday: “I have voted overwhelmingly for Democrats historically. I’m not sure, I might never have voted for a Republican, just to be clear. Now, this election, I will.”
 
Yesterday, S&P removed Tesla from its S&P 500 ESG Index.  “A few of the factors contributing to its 2021 S&P DJI ESG Score were a decline in criteria level scores related to Tesla’s (lack of) low carbon strategy and codes of business conduct. In addition… two separate events centered around claims of racial discrimination and poor working conditions at Tesla’s Fremont factory, as well as its handling of the NHTSA investigation after multiple deaths and injuries were linked to its autopilot vehicles.”
https://www.indexologyblog.com/2022/05/17/the-rebalancing-act-of-the-sp-500-esg-index/
 
Is there a political reason for penalizing Musk? 
 
@elonmusk (yesterday): ESG is an outrageous scam! Shame on @SPGlobal.  Political attacks on me will escalate dramatically in coming months… Exxon is rated top ten best in world for environment, social & governance (ESG) by S&P 500, while Tesla didn’t make the list! ESG is a scam. It has been weaponized by phony social justice warriors…In the past I voted Democrat because they were (mostly) the kindness party. But they have become the party of division & hate, so I can no longer support them and will vote Republican. Now, watch their dirty tricks campaign against me unfold.
 
JPMorgan investors hand Jamie Dimon a rare rebuke with disapproval of $52.6 million bonus
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/jpmorgan-investors-hand-dimon-rare-rebuke-object-to-53-million-bonus.html
Biden invokes Defense Production Act to address infant formula shortage
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/biden-invokes-defense-production-act-to-address-infant-formula-shortage.html
 
@RNCResearch: JEN PSAKI, May 13: “The production of baby formula is so specialized and so specific that you can’t just use the Defense Production Act.” “It just doesn’t work that way.” (Pants on fire!)
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1527061240144592896
 
Vast Swath of US at Risk of Summer Blackouts, Regulator Warns
Drought, plant closures and supply-chain woes threaten electric grid
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/vast-swath-of-us-is-at-risk-of-summer-blackouts-regulator-warns
 
Today – The frightening equity carnage should unnerve investors and traders that were in the neutral and bullish camps.  The technical damage was severe.  More alarmingly, there were no serious rally attempts; the equity rescue team did not appear – and it is expiry week!
 
Seasoned market observers fear that the rebound rally has yielded to another equity liquidation wave.  When there is a significant decline, the first rebound rally speaks volumes about market structure.  If the rebound rally is brief, beware!  If the low of a prior down leg is violated after a rebound rally, the odds of aggressive selling increases significantly. 
 
The structure of the major equity indices indicate that stocks could sink much further.  The May option expiration on Friday could greatly exacerbate anxious liquidation.
DHS preparing for violence following abortion ruling
Law enforcement agencies are investigating social-media threats to burn down or storm the Supreme Court building and murder justices and their clerks, as well as attacks targeting places of worship and abortion clinics… But, but, but: “The mere advocacy of political or social positions, political activism, use of strong rhetoric, or generalized philosophic embrace of violent tactics does not constitute domestic violent extremism or illegal activity and is constitutionally protected.”… (Liberal privilege is real!)
https://www.axios.com/2022/05/18/supreme-court-abortion-roe-protests-violence
 
Dem Sen Majority Leader Schumer: “I want to tell you, Gorsuch; I want to tell you, Kavanaugh: You have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price. You won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions.
 
If violence against the SCOTUS or its justices occurs, will Dem Sen. Chucky Schumer be held accountable for advocating violence against some SCOTUS justices due to their abortion views?
 
@bennyjohnson: Biden is running out of batteries again.
https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1526924894440759298
 
Biden’s ‘Disinfo’ Board Paused, ‘Scary Poppins’ Drafts Resignation (Reportedly due to Dem pressure)
The Department of Homeland Security has ‘paused’ it’s newly created Disinformation Governance Board, after its head, Nina Jankowicz, was called out for being a Russiagate truther, and going full “libs of TikTok” with creepy Disney-themed songs in a fake British accent – lending to the nickname “Scary Poppins.”… According to a DHS spokesperson, “The Board’s purpose has been grossly mischaracterized; it will not police speech,” adding “Quite the opposite, its focus is to ensure that freedom of speech is protected.” Let us guess, war is also peace, freedom is slavery, and ignorance is strength.   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bidens-disinfo-board-paused-after-scary-poppins-drafts-resignation
 
@ggreenwald: Investigating and criticizing a Homeland Security official is now “harassment” and bullying, according to the WashPost and @TaylorLorenz.  Only ordinary citizens can be investigated — not high-level US Security State operatives.
 
Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman won the state’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate just days after suffering a stroke https://t.co/9Zjr9SCZ0B
 
@RRHElections: John Fetterman (D) has just won the PA Sen Democratic primary. Fetterman is famous for grabbing a shotgun & chasing down an innocent black jogger who happened to run by his house. Apparently Black Lives Matter less if you have a “(D)” next to your name.
 
Here Are the Nutcases Who Believe in “Replacement”
Where’d anybody get that idea? Oh yeah — from liberals… (Ann Coulter lists some of the libs.)
https://anncoulter.com/2022/05/18/here-are-the-nutcases-who-believe-in-replacement/
 
Tale of two trials: How Sussmann is receiving every consideration denied to Flynn
Whereas Flynn’s prosecution was a no-holds-barred affair, Sussmann’s prosecution has been undermined by a series of unfavorable rulings by the court. Special prosecutor Durham still may be able to eke out a conviction, but the difference in the treatment of Trump and Clinton associates is striking
    The treatment given to Sussmann is in stark contrast to how Trump associates were treated in this same court. In the Flynn trial, Judge Cooper’s colleague, Judge Emmet Sullivan, conducted a series of bizarre hearings, including one in which he used the courtroom flag as a prop to accuse Flynn of being an “unregistered agent of a foreign country while serving as the national security adviser” and to suggest that Flynn could be charged with treason — crimes not brought against him. Sullivan then declared: “I cannot assure you that if you proceed today, you will not receive a sentence of incarceration. I am not hiding my disgust and my disdain.” (Dem privilege) Judge Amy Berman Jackson, refused to grant Trump associate Roger Stone a new trial despite disturbing reports of juror bias… (Unequal justice is no justice)
https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/3492664-tale-of-two-trials-how-sussmann-is-receiving-every-consideration-denied-to-flynn/
 
@JunkScience: Global cooling since 2015… despite ~20 ppm more CO2. Follow the science!
https://kaltesonne.de/fritz-vahrenholt-die-energiewendel-und-die-ausbleibende-erwaermung/
https://twitter.com/JunkScience/status/1525310073689542658?s=02
 
In the ‘70s and early ‘80s, the MSM and science publications teemed with ‘global cooling’ warnings.
 
Dem witness tells House committee men can get pregnant, have abortions
‘I believe that everyone can identify for themselves,’ Aimee Arrambide tells House Judiciary Committee
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-committee-witness-men-get-pregnant-have-abortions
 
Testosterone Treatment Turns Democrat Voters More Conservative (Not a parody)
“Our results demonstrate that testosterone induces a “red shift” among weakly-affiliated Democrats,” summarized the paper… https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/05/18/ncreased-testosterone-levels-turns-voters-more-conservative/

Let us close today with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

See you on FRIDAY

Advertisement

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: