MAY 25//GOLD CLOSED UP $2.70 TO $1846.90//SILVER IS UP 20 CENTS TO $21.69//PLATINUM DOWN $1.65 TO $949.02/PALLADIUM UP $39.65 TO $1998.30//CHINA’S ECONOMY IN TROUBLE//MORE UPDATES//ECB PLANS ON ESCAPING NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES IN THE 3RD QUARTER//COVID UPDATES GLOBALLY//PAUL ALEXANDER UPDATES//SWEDEN UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES

May 25, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

May 25, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1846.90 UP $2.70 from Friday

SILVER: $21.89 UP  $.20 FROM FRIDAY

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1853.60

SILVER: $22.06

Bitcoin morning price:  $29,499 UP 495 up from Saturday

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $29,705 up $701.00

Platinum price: closing DOWN $1.65 to $949.20

Palladium price; closing UP $39.15  at $1998.30

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 2/260

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,865.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/24/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 05/26/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


661 C JP MORGAN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
905 C ADM 1


NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT 2  NOTICE(S) FOR 200 OZ  (0.00622  TONNES)

total notices so far:  6431 contracts for 643100 oz (20.003 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

58 NOTICE(S) FILED 290,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  5524  :  for 27,624,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $2.70

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 20 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

AT THE SLV.: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 561.586 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED  590 CONTRACTS TO 146,456   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND  THE GOOD GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR   $0.20 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.20) BUT  ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SILVER LONGS AS THEY REMAIN FIRM IN THEIR BELIEF OF A SILVER FAILURE AS WE HAD A NET GAIN OF 1239 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 30.170 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 70,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP   //NEW STANDING 28,245,000 MILLION OZ/ //  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : XX

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 17 days, total 20,247,  contracts:  101.235 million oz  OR 5.953 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1191CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 101.236 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 101.236 MILLION OZ//INCREASING AGAIN

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 590 DESPITE OUR  $0.34 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 125 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY. OF 30.170 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 20,000  OZ E.F.P.. JUMP //NEW STANDING 28.245 MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 465 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 2.325 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 58  NOTICE FILED TODAY FOR  290,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 9936 CONTRACTS  TO 530.098 AND FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  –XX CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF $17.80//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GIGANTIC SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //JUST SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR STUPID SPECULATORS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 5.353 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY”S QUEUE JUMP OF 1900 OZ//NEW STANDING 20.111 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $7.75 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3437  OI CONTRACTS (10.69 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  6499 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 542,509

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3437, WITH 9936 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 13437 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3437 CONTRACTS OR 10.69 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (16499) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (9936,): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  3437 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY. AT 5.353 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 1900 OZ//NEW STANDING 20.11 ///  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX  OI. LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

75,378 CONTRACTS OR 7,537,800 OR 206.87  TONNES 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4434 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 234.45 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  206.87/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.80% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  234,45 TONNES INITIAL// INCREASING AGAIN

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 590 CONTRACT OI TO 146.456 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 125 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 125  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF  119 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 125 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF465 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.325 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.34 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Government is not competent enough to suppress gold price accord to Rick Rule formerly of Sprott

(Rick Rule/Chris Powell)

Government isn’t competent enough to suppress gold price, Rick Rule tells Kitco

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-05-25 01:08Section: Daily Dispatches

1:22a ET Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Investment analyst Rick Rule, interviewed yesterday at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference by Kitco News editor Michelle Makori, acknowledged that the gold futures market is “ripe for manipulation” but dismissed complaints that government has undertaken any schemes to suppress the price of the monetary metal.

“The idea that there is some vast conspiracy between government and central banks and the Trilateral Commission to suppress the price of gold when history has depressed the price of gold seems silly to me,” Rule said. “The government can’t deliver the mail, they can’t educate the kids, and they can preside over a 40-year manipulation of the gold price? I don’t reckon.”

If Makori had wanted to attempt journalism at this point, she might have asked Rule about a few of the documents of longstanding government gold price suppression policy that are compiled by GATA here:

https://gata.org/node/20925

Instead Makori let Rule get away with his demagoguery about the Trilateral Commission, which as far as GATA can tell has never been mentioned in regard to complaints about gold price suppression, even as Rule failed to mention the Bank for International Settlements, the gold broker and gold market intervenor for major central banks.

Neither did Makori challenge Rule for his non-sequitur — that since government is incompetent with certain things it must be incompetent with all things. That also is demagoguery, which Rule may have picked up years ago from market analyst Doug Casey, someone else who denies government gold price suppression policy but has never taken a moment to examine and address the documents or to put a critical question to governments and central banks.

Yes, the U.S. government has had trouble getting the U.S. Postal Service to be self-supporting, and yes, U.S. education long has been in decline. But government almost everywhere long has been extremely proficient at extracting wealth from the people over whom it rules and restricting their freedom. Government also can be pretty good at blowing things up, which Rule might begin to appreciate if he ever finds himself at the wrong end of a Stinger or Javelin missile. 

Makori did note to Rule her interview three weeks ago with mining and entertainment entrepreneur Frank Giustra, who said he suspects that gold prices are manipulated by the Federal Reserve, to which Rule replied that he would be willing to debate Giustra on the issue. 

In preparation for such a debate GATA would be happy to brief Giustra on the documents, and happier still to debate Rule directly.

If Makori ever wants to attempt journalism, GATA would be glad to brief her on the documents and help her frame some pointed questions for the Fed, Treasury Department, BIS. Bank of England, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, futures exchange operator CME Group, and a few bullion banks.

Of course that might be the last journalism Makori would ever attempt for Kitco News, but actual journalism often involves risk.

Makori’s interview with Rule is 29 minutes long with the conversation about gold beginning at the 18:27 mark. It can be found here:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-05-24/There-is-no-vast-conspiracy-to-suppress-gold-price-Fed-will-back-off-aggressive-rate-hikes-Rick-Rule.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Gold and silver is still protecting our purchasing power:  James Turk

(Turk/GATA)

Gold and silver still protect purchasing power, Turk tells Wall Street Silver

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-05-22 21:25Section: Daily Dispatches

9:27p ET Sunday, May 22, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk, interviewed by Ivan Bayoukhi and Jim Lewis of Wall Street Silver, shows that despite their recent smashings in the futures market, gold and silver long have protected and still are protecting the purchasing power of their owners, especially in regard to the key measure of energy, the price of oil.

Turk’s interview is 14 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

BIS swamps fall by a third in two months;  Is Basel 3 kicking in?

Robert Lamborn/GATA

Robert Lambourne: BIS gold swaps fall by a third in two months. Is ‘Basel 3’ kicking in?

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-05-21 11:46Section: Daily Dispatches

By Robert Lambourne
Saturday, May 21, 2022

The recently released March and April 2022 statements of account of the Bank for International Settlements — 

— contain information suggesting a significant decrease in the bank’s gold swaps.

The March reduction was about 112 tonnes, bringing the swaps down from about 472 tonnes as of February 28 to about 360 tonnes at March 31. There was a reduction of about 45 tonnes in April, bringing the swaps down to 315 tonnes. 

These totals compare to the relatively recent record high estimated at 552 tonnes as of February 28, 2021. April’s 315 tonnes is the lowest volume of gold swaps held by the BIS since December 2019.

Altogether the reductions in March and April brought the bank’s gold swaps down by slightly more than a third.

Once again it is evident that the BIS remains an active trader of significant volumes of gold swaps on a regular basis, and the recent data suggests that a downward trend in the bank’s swaps has begun. A continuation of this trend would be indicate that an exit from the swaps due to “Basel III” regulations is happening. 

The BIS rarely comments publicly on its gold activities, but its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009-10 annual report.

The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the bank, and he confirmed that they were carried out with commercial banks and so did not involve central banks. It also seems highly likely that the BIS’ remaining swaps are still all made with commercial banks, because the BIS annual report has never disclosed a gold swap between the BIS and a major central bank.

The swap transactions potentially create a mismatch at the BIS, which may end up being long unallocated gold (the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks) and short allocated gold (the gold required to be returned to swap counterparties). This possible mismatch has not been reported by the BIS.

The gold banking activities of the BIS have been a regular part of the services it offers to central banks since the establishment of the bank 90 years ago. The first annual report of the BIS explains these activities in some detail:

http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1931_en.pdf

A June 2008 presentation made by the BIS to potential central bank members at its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland, noted that the bank’s services to its members include secret interventions in the gold and foreign exchange markets:

https://www.gata.org/node/11012

The use of gold swaps to take gold held by commercial banks and then deposit it in gold sight accounts held in the name of the BIS at major central banks doesn’t appear ever to have been as large a part of the BIS’ gold banking business as it has been in recent years.

As of March 31, 2010, excluding gold owned by the BIS, there were 1,706 tonnes held in gold sight accounts at major central banks in the name of the BIS, of which 346 tonnes or 20% were sourced from gold swaps from commercial banks.
 
As can readily be seen, the BIS now operates a much smaller gold banking business, with 736 tonnes of gold deposited in gold sight accounts as of April 30. (This excludes 102 tonnes of the gold owned by the BIS itself.) The present-day role of gold swaps in this smaller business is proportionately far greater. 

In April, excluding the 102 tonnes of gold owned by the BIS, some 43% of the gold held in sight accounts at major central banks on behalf of the BIS came from gold swaps rather than from other central banks.

If the BIS was adopting the level of disclosures made by publicly held companies, such as commercial banks, some explanation of these changes probably would have been required by the accounting regulators. This irony may not be lost on those dealing with regulatory activities at the BIS. Presumably the shrinkage of the BIS’ gold banking business shows that even central banks now prefer to hold their own gold or hold it in earmarked form — that is, as allocated gold.

A review of Table B below highlights recent BIS activity with gold swaps, and despite the recent declines, the latest position estimated from the BIS monthly statements remains large and the volume of trades is significant. 

No explanation for this continuing high level of swaps has been published by the BIS. Indeed, no comment on the bank’s use of gold swaps has been offered since 2010. 

This gold is supplied by bullion banks via the swaps to the BIS. The gold is then deposited in BIS gold sight accounts (unallocated gold accounts) at major central banks such as the Federal Reserve. 

The reasons for this activity have never been fully explained by the BIS and various conjectures have been made as to why the BIS is facilitating it. One conjecture is that the swaps are a mechanism for gold secretly supplied by central banks to cover shortfalls in the gold markets to be returned to the central banks. The use of the BIS to facilitate this trade suggests of a desire to conceal the rationale for the transactions.

The BIS’ use of gold swaps and other gold derivatives remains extensive despite the recent declines. 

Table B below shows that the BIS continues to trade significant volumes of gold swaps regularly. As can be seen in Table A below, the BIS has used gold swaps extensively since its financial year 2009-10. 

No use of swaps is reported in the bank’s annual reports for at least 10 years prior to the year ended March 2010. 

The February 2021 estimate of the bank’s gold swaps (552 tonnes) is higher than any level of swaps reported by the BIS at its March year-end since March 2010. The swaps reported at March 2021 are at the highest year-end level reported, as is clear from Table A.

Table A — Swaps reported in BIS annual reports

March 2010: 346 tonnes.
March 2011: 409 tonnes.
March 2012: 355 tonnes.
March 2013: 404 tonnes.
March 2014: 236 tonnes.
March 2015: 47 tonnes.
March 2016: 0 tonnes.
March 2017: 438 tonnes.
March 2018: 361 tonnes.
March 2019: 175 tonnes
March 2020: 326 tonnes
March 2021: 490 tonnes

—–

The table below reports the estimated swap levels since August 2018. It can be seen that the BIS is actively involved in trading gold swaps and other gold derivatives with changes from month to month reported in excess of 100 tonnes in this period.

Table B – Swaps estimated by GATA from BIS monthly statements of account

Month ….. Swaps
& year … in tonnes

Apr-22 ….. /315
Mar-22 …. /360
Feb-22 …. /472
Jan-22 ….. /501
Dec-21…. /414
Nov-21…. /451
Oct-21…. /414
Sep-21 …. /438
Aug-21 …. /464
Jul-21 …. /502
Jun-21 …./471
May-21 …./517
Apr-21 …. /472
Mar-21…. /490±
Feb-21 …../552
Jan-21 …. /523
Dec-20 …. /545
Nov-20 …. /520
Oct-20 …. /519
Sep-20…../ 520
Aug-20…../ 484
Jul-20 ….. / 474
Jun-20 …. / 391
May-20 …. / 412
Apr-20 …. / 328
Mar-20 …. / 326*
Feb-20 …. / 326
Jan-20 …. / 320
Dec-19 …. / 313
Nov-19 …. / 250
Oct-19 …. / 186
Sep-19 …. / 128
Aug-19 …. / 162
Jul-19 ….. / 95
Jun-19 …. / 126
May-19 …. / 78
Apr-19 ….. / 88
Mar-19 …. / 175
Feb-19 …. / 303
Jan-19 …. / 247
Dec-18 …. / 275
Nov-18 …. / 308
Oct-18 …. / 372
Sep-18 …. / 238
Aug-18 …. / 370

± The estimate originally reported by GATA was 487 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 490 tonnes, It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

* The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 326 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.

—–

As noted already, the BIS in recent times has refused to explain its activities in the gold market, nor for whom the bank is acting:

https://www.gata.org/node/17793

Despite this reticence the BIS is almost certainly acting on behalf of central banks in taking out these swaps, as they are the BIS’ owners and control its Board of Directors.

This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as an agent for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets, providing those central banks with access to gold as well as protection from exposure of their interventions. 

A recent report published by Bullion Star’s Ronan Manly on the Bank of Portugal’s use of its gold reserves reinforces this point as the Bank of Portugal confirms that 20 tonnes of its gold is stored with the BIS: 

https://www.gata.org/node/21950

This disclosure seems a little economic with the truth as the BIS has no gold storage facilities of its own. Gold held by the BIS on behalf of central banks is either deposited into a BIS gold sight (unallocated) account or a BIS earmarked (allocated) gold account and deposited normally with one of the central banks based at a major gold trading center, such as the Federal Reserve in New York. 

Since Manly shows that the Bank of Portugal is focused on earning income from its gold, it seems highly likely that this gold is held in a BIS sight account, though its ultimate location is unclear.

It is possible that the swaps provide a mechanism for bullion banks to return gold originally lent to them by central banks to cover bullion bank shortfalls of gold. Some commentators have suggested that a portion of the gold held by exchange-traded funds and managed by bullion banks is sourced directly from central banks.

—–

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.

* * *

end

Rubel rises to 2015 level against euro and dollar as the EU prepares to pay for gas in roubles.

Ruble rises to 2015 level against euro as EU prepares to pay for gas

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-05-20 12:29Section: Daily Dispatches

Wonderful sanctions you got there, Boys and Girls.

* * *

From Reuters
Friday, May 20, 2022

The Russian ruble today rallied to its strongest levels against the euro and dollar since June 2015 and March 2018 respectively, which analysts attributed to EU countries preparing to pay Russia for gas and to capital controls imposed by Moscow.

Russia said Thursday that half of gas giant Gazprom’s 54 clients have opened accounts at Gazprombank, as European companies approach imminent deadlines to pay for their gas supplies.

Opening such accounts became possible after EU executives allowed member states to keep buying Russian gas without breaching the slew of sanctions they have collectively imposed on Russia over what Moscow calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine that started on Feb. 24. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-rouble-rallies-past-60-vs-dollar-2022-05-20/

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 36.54 PTS OR 1.19%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 59.19 PTS OR 0.26%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 76.34 OR 0.26%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.25%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6,6954    /Oil UP TO 111.09dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 114.62 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6954 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6708: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9936 CONTRACTS TO 530,098 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  GAIN OF $7.75 IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (1307 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ARE CAUGHT. THE COMMERCIALS WILL SLAUGHTER THESE GUYS WHEN THEY THINK THE TIME IS RIGHT

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 6439 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 JUNE :6439 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6439 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  FAIR SIZED  TOTAL OF 3437 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6439 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 9936  CONTRACTS..AND YET  THIS STRONG LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $7.75.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY   (20.11),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $17.90) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS AS WELL AS SPECULATOR SHORTS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A GOOD SIZED LOSS  OF 14/86 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (20.11 TONNES)

WE HAD XX CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3437 CONTRACTS OR 477,900  OZ OR 10.69 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 125,244/// poor

Confirmed volume yesterday:257,307 contracts  fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAY ’22 COMEX GOLD //MAY 25

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz32,115.000 oz
JPMORGAN1000 KILOBARS
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznilOZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz2066.39 OZ
BRINKS
No of oz served (contracts) today2  notice(s)200 OZ
0.000622 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)35 contracts 3500 oz
0.1088 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month6431 notices643,100 OZ
20.003 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits  0

total dealer deposit  0   oz//

No dealer withdrawals

1 customer deposits

i) Into Brinks: 2066.39 oz

total deposits: 2066.39 oz

1 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of JPMorgan:  32115.00 oz (1000 kilobars)

total withdrawal: 32115.000  oz

ADJUSTMENTS:   

a) JPMorgan 250,266.617 oz customer to dealer

b) Brinks dealer to customer 73,593.642

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.

For the front month of MAY we have an  oi of 37 contracts having LOST ONLY 402 contracts

We had 421 notices filed YESTERDAY, so we gained 19 contracts or  AN ADDITIONAL 1900 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of May.

June saw a loss of 40,935 contracts down to 184,466 contracts 

July has a GAIN OF 606 OI to stand at 1099

August has a gain of 30,512 contracts up to 349,852 contracts

We had 32 notice(s) filed today for  3200 oz FOR THE MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6431) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAY 37  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  2 x 100 oz per contract equals 6,666,000 OZ  OR 20.11 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non  active month of MAY. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (6431) x 100 oz+   (xx)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2} x 100 oz} which equals 646,600 oz standing OR 20.111 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of MAY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  20.11 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A MAY ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,060,078.634 oz                             

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  35,596,492.593 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 18,135.608.203  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,640,890.390 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,550,812.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MAY 25

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory124,139.264  oz
CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory6915.605 oz
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)58CONTRACT(S)
290,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)125 contracts
(2,045,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)5524 contracts 27,620,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i) zero dealer deposits  
And now for the wild silver comex results

total dealer deposits:  0     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware: 6915.605 oz

total deposit:  6915.605    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 175.84 million oz/337.779 million =52.16% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Brinks  9520.210 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 124,139.264. oz  

total withdrawal  124,139.264      oz

2 adjustments: customer to dealer JPMorgan:  205,266.617 oz  

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 80.031 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 336.970 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI: 483 HAVING LOST 295 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 291 NOTICES FILED ON YESTERDAY

SO WE LOST 4   CONTRACTS OR A E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 20,000 OZ

JUNE HAD A GAIN OF 4 TO STAND AT 1569

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 1769 CONTRACTS UP TO 112,140 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 58 for 290,000 oz

Comex volumes: 14,796// est. volume today//   poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 40,517 contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5524 x 5,000 oz = 27,624,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(x83) and the number of notices served upon today 58  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAY./2022 contract month: 5524 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (83)  – number of notices served upon today (58) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates 28,245,000 oz. .

We LOST 4 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 20,000 OZ will NOT  stand for delivery at the comex

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MAY 24/WITH GOLD UP @$2.70: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.89./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1056.18 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.07 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.40:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.28 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.89 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD DOWN $16.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.8 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.82 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.99 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.62 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.65 TONNES

MAY 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.90 TONNES

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.98 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.00 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.95: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.98 TONNES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 \TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.20: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1094.55 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD UP $20.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095,72 TONNES

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.77 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095.72 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.49 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.60//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.23 TONNES

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES 

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT IF 6.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.36 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $11.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.44 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A  DEPOSIT OF 11.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.42 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $26.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 //A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1090.49 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1068.07 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MAY 24/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20.WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHDRAWAL OF .785 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL  1.892 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 17/WITH SILVER UP $.22 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.508 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.546 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.593 MILLION OZ//

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ/

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

May 11/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.487 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

MAY 10.//WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .93 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .851 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.900 MILLION OZ

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.877 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 554,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.171 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29//WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.308 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.385 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.033 MILLION OZ

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS : STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 3.508 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.449 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.955 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .461 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY…//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.986 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.447 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS : A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.676 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 831,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

INVENTORY TONIGHT RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ/

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

The Air Is Coming Out Of The Housing Bubble

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 09:25 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The Fed has barely started raising interest rates but the air is already seeping out of the housing bubble.

New single-family home sales plunged by 16.6% from March and were down 26.9% year on year. New home sales dropped to the lowest level since the lockdown in April 2020.

New home sales are often viewed as a leading indicator of the state of the overall housing market.

The unsold inventory of new homes spiked by 34,000, a historic month-to-month leap. There were 440,000 unsold new homes (seasonally adjusted), the highest level since May 2008 in the midst of the housing bust. Both, the month-to-month and year-over-year increases in unsold new homes were the largest leaps ever recorded, both in numbers of unsold houses and in percentage terms.

The biggest drop in new home sales occurred in the under-$400k price range, indicating that high prices and rising mortgage rates are squeezing middle-class Americans out of the housing market.

WolfStreet broke down the current dynamics in housing.

Homebuyers struggle with spiking mortgage rates which make the high home prices that much more difficult to deal with. And with each increase in mortgage rates, and with each increase in home prices, entire layers of potential buyers abandon the market, and sales volume plunges.”

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data for April 2022 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 10.6% compared to a year ago. Compared to March 2022, applications decreased by 14%.

The Federal Reserve blew up this housing bubble when it artificially suppressed interest rates and bought billions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities. Now the central bank has pricked the bubble by allowing rates to rise ever-so-slightly.

What the Fed giveth, the Fed taketh away.

Mortgage rates began to fall in late 2018 as the economy tanked and the Federal Reserve ended its post-2008 rate hike cycle. Rates continued to fall as the Fed pivoted back to quantitative easing and then dropped through the floor with the rate cuts and QE infinity in response to the coronavirus. The big spike in mortgage rates we’re seeing today started as the Fed began talking up monetary tightening to tackle raging inflation.

Tight housing inventory has kept home prices up even as sales have dropped, but as more and more people are squeezed out of the market, prices will likely begin to fall. While we may not see the kind of crash we saw in 2008, a housing market bust will reverberate through the economy as rising housing prices squeeze Americans already struggling to make ends meet.

And as Peter Schiff pointed out in a tweet, falling prices will wipe out home equity for millions of homeowners.

But lower house prices will offer little relief to new buyers, as rising mortgage rates, utilities, taxes, maintenance, and insurance offset the drop.”

Peter Schiff: The Fed Girds For Battle

2.LAWRIE WILLIAMS//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS/

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: ‘In Gold we Trust’ 2022 released – $4,800 gold by 2030 prediction still intact

Keen gold analysts will be pleased to know that the latest edition of Incrementum AG’s hugely comprehensive ‘In Gold we Trust’ annual treatise has been released and is available for free download in various forms and languages as follows:

English:

In Gold We Trust report – English?(390?pages)
Compact Version – English (26?pages)
https://www.incrementum.li/en/ingoldwetrust- report/

German:

In Gold We Trust-Report – Deutsch (420?Seiten)
Compact Version – Deutsch (26?Seiten)

Spanish:
Compact Version – Spanish (26 Pages)

For the follower of the gold sector this is probably the most comprehensive report on gold freely available to the general public and is packed full of statistics, graphics, tabulations and opinion relevant to all aspects of gold supply and demand together with price projections. It has now been published annually since Ronald-Peter Stöferle prepared its first edition, originally for Austria’s Erste Bank, some 16 years ago and has been one of the most followed annual treatises on the global gold market ever since.

This latest issue, inter alia, takes a detailed view on what the seemingly inexorable move of the global economy into a period of stagflation means for us all, and its likely effects on the equities markets, U.S. Fed policy and the future price of gold. Back in 2020, the report’s authors were predicting a gold price reaching around $4,800 by the end of the current decade, and this view has not changed. In order to achieve this they see the yellow metal’s price reaching around $2,200 in the current year – a very similar level to that of our own latest price forecast of a month or so ago.

So what is stagflation and how does it contribute to this kind of rising gold price scenario? Briefly it was a term coined in the UK back in the early 1970s during a period of stagnant economic growth coupled with high inflation, in turn brought about by high energy prices. Does that look familiar as being representative of the current economic environment. We have even gone on record as suggesting that this time around it may even be the precursor of recession, an even worse economic scenario, although in the past stagflation has seldom been followed by recession but ….currently who knows?

Certainly in the U.S. in particular, and in a pattern which is being followed by the Bank of England and, most likely, also by the European Central Bank, there is a strong programme already being initiated of Quantitative Tightening and strong interest rate rises to try and bring inflation under control, which could well have a recessionary impact without necessarily reducing the inflationary pressures that significantly. There is, though, the strong opinion held by a number of commentators and economists, and by the authors of the ‘In Gold we Trust’ report too, that the Fed will not follow through to the year-end with its more hawkish rate rise programme and will be forced into an about-turn later in the year in the face of a severe collapse in equity prices. This will be brought about as the markets take into consideration the likely effects on businesses of higher interest rates coupled with a downturn in general economic activity due to the ongoing ravages of inflation.

If this is indeed the case then there would be a likely recovery in both equities and precious metals towards the year end due to what may well be a short-lived period of economic optimism. This could represent the proverbial calm before the economic storm which we fear may await with the onset of a severe recession which would devastate equity prices – particularly for those which have been verging on illiquidity for some time. Gold may well do rather better, though, as the ultimate safe haven as the ‘In Gold we Trust’ authors expect, although their predicted path to a higher gold price is more slow and steady than the rapid rise predicted for many years now by some of the out and out gold bulls.

The 390-page report obviously covers far more than its coverage of inflation. stagflation and its gold price projections. Other analysis looks deeper at the causes of the current inflationary pressures, with the Russia/Ukraine war having a huge impact, thereby putting global monetary policy strongly on the defensive in its attempts to counter inflation without driving the whole world into recession – probably without success.

Markets are transitioning almost overnight from ‘bubble’ to crash with the reality of the strength of the U.S. anti- inflation measures threatening to provoke an equity market crash. So far huge equity falls have been tempered by perhaps less significant recoveries with the overall trend downwards and it seems unlikely to the report’s authors and contributors that moves by central banks to bring their respective economies under control can be achieved without some serious casualties developing.

In effect all this adverse economic projection is due to the virtual inevitability of continuing inflationary pressures ahead.. There is, in effect, a new ‘Cold War’ in the making in Europe – and perhaps in the Far East too if China seizes the opportunity to initiate one as well – and an overall move towards ‘de-globalization’. The world is entering an enormous de-carbonization cost phase too in response to global warming fears, with a wage-price spiral likely developing as a consequence. There may well be several such global inflationary phases to come.

These scenarios envisage changes to conventional investment strategies which may no longer apply. Commodities may benefit the most – history tells us that this may be the case and the ultimate safe haven asset, gold, could benefit strongest of all – particularly if rumours of a gold-backed reserve currency being developed by Russia and China turn out to be accurate.

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end 

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //PALM OIL+ OTHERS

Glenclore pleads bleads guilty to decade of bribery and market manipulation….pays a $1.5 million penalty

(zerohedge

Glencore Pleads Guilty To Decade Of Bribery And Market Manipulation, Will Pay $1.5 BIllion Penalty

TUESDAY, MAY 24, 2022 – 09:05 PM

Swiss commodity trading giant Glencore agreed to plead guilty to multiple counts of bribery and market manipulation and pay penalties of up to $1.5BN to settle US, UK and Brazilian probes that have hung over the commodities giant for years.

The settlements will help remove question marks that have long overshadowed the trader’s (shady) business, profiled extensively in the gripping book The World For Sale. But the charges and admissions of guilt paint a damning, globe-spanning picture of how far the company, founded by U.S. fugitive Marc Rich, has been willing to go in pursuit of profit.

According to Bloomberg, Glencore units agreed to plead guilty to a list of charges that range from bribery and corruption in South America and Africa, to price manipulation in US fuel-oil markets.

The UK’s Serious Fraud Office on Tuesday charged the group’s subsidiary Glencore Energy UK with seven cases of profit-driven bribery and corruption in connection to oil operations in Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and South Sudan. In a statement, the SFO said that its case was that “Glencore agents and employees paid bribes worth over $25mn for preferential access to oil, with approval by the company”.

In the US, Glencore pleaded guilty in two separate criminal cases and agreed to pay approximately $1.1bn in criminal fines and forfeiture. One case involved what prosecutors described as a decade-long bribery scheme, and in the second, Glencore’s US commodities trading arm pleaded guilty to engaging in an eight-year scheme to manipulate US fuel oil price benchmarks.

Glencore said it would pay about $1.5bn in overall penalties, including the $1.1bn to US authorities, $40mn to Brazilian prosecutors and an amount due to the UK to be finalised at a sentencing hearing. The company made a $1.5bn provision for the settlement in February, and said in an update on Tuesday that it does not expect the total fines to “differ materially” from what it has set aside.

Merrick Garland, US attorney-general, called it the US Department of Justice’s “largest criminal enforcement action to date for commodity price manipulation conspiracy in oil markets”.

“Bribery was built in to the corporate culture,” Manhattan US Attorney Damian Williams said at a press conference. “The tone from the top was clear: whatever it takes.” Glencore paid more than $100 million in bribes to government officials in Brazil, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Venezuela, he said.

Glencore is the largest among a handful of independent commodity merchants that dominate global trading of oil, fuel, metals, minerals and food. The company and its rivals, most of which are privately held, have traditionally operated outside of the view of regulators and been willing to go to countries and do deals that others shy away from. In recent months, Glencore has fallen under the microscope for continuing to conduct Russian oil trade despite blanket western sanctions.

Glencore first said it was being investigated by the US in 2018 and details of the corruption in Africa began to emerge last year as a former Glencore trader pleaded guilty in the US to participating in an international scheme to bribe officials in Nigeria to win favorable treatment from the state-owned oil company.

The commodity trader and miner said in February it expected to resolve the UK, US and Brazilian investigations this year and set aside $1.5 billion. However, it still faces investigations in Switzerland and the Netherlands.

In an order Tuesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission describes how Glencore traders would use codes like “newspapers” or “chocolates” to refer to corrupt payments. The corruption and manipulation took place from at least 2007 through at least 2018, the CFTC said.

The investigations overshadowed the last years at the helm for former Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg, who built the company in its current form and remains a top shareholder. Glasenberg handed over the leadership last year to his handpicked successor, Gary Nagle, as part of a wider generational transition.

The company, which shifts millions of tonnes of metals, minerals and oil across the globe, also faces probes by Swiss and Dutch authorities, the timing and result of which remain uncertain.

Last July, a former Glencore oil trader pleaded guilty in New York over his role in a scheme to bribe government officials in Nigeria in return for lucrative oil contracts. The allegations in the original US DoJ investigation, which date as far back as 2007, happened during Glasenberg’s 19-year reign at the top of the company.

And while two Glencore traders have pleaded guilty as part of the US cases, the company’s top executives have so far escaped punishment.

Glasenberg and his top lieutenants took the company public in 2011 in what was then one of the largest ever flotations in London. It partly used the funds to transform the company from a pure commodity trader into a mining company through a merger with Xstrata in 2013 and a series of acquisitions.

But the company has struggled to shake off a reputation for sometimes questionable activity that many investors saw as embedded in its DNA, stretching back to its time as a privately held trading house, the FT notes.

“We acknowledge the misconduct identified in these investigations and have cooperated with the authorities,” CEO Nagle said in a statement. “This type of behavior has no place in Glencore, and the board, management team and I are very clear about the culture that we want and our commitment to be a responsible and ethical operator wherever we work.”

While the expected total payment is among the largest anti-corruption fines on record, it’s a pittance amount for Glencore. The company is expected to earn more than $17 billion this year, according to analysts’ consensus, meaning that it would make back the $1.5 billion in less than 5 weeks, according to Bloomberg.

“Glencore shouldn’t be allowed to gloss over what these charges reveal,” said Alexandra Gillies, an adviser at the Natural Resource Governance Institute. “These are some of the poorest countries in the world, countries where citizens have suffered the terrible costs of corruption for many years.”

Some more details from Bloomberg:

Glencore expects to pay about $1 billion to U.S. authorities after accounting for credits and offsets payable to other jurisdictions and agencies, and about $40 million to Brazil, the company said. The payment to the UK will only be finalized after a hearing next month but Glencore said it doesn’t expect the amount will result in the total penalties differing materially from the $1.5 billion previously disclosed.

Earlier Tuesday, Shaun Teichner, the general counsel for the company, told a federal judge in New York that Glencore International AG knowingly and willingly entered into a conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act by making payments to corrupt government officials.

“It’s a good day for them to finally get this done because it’s been hanging over them for a while,” said Ben Davis, a mining analyst at Liberum Capital. “It at least allows them to start to move forward.”

The bottom line, however, is that today’s settlement once again reveals that there are those who can pay their way out of legal trouble, and those who go to jail. Glencore, and its executives, are among the former: as Bloomberg’s Javier Blas notes, “not a single senior executive faces jail time. Other than Enron’s executives, the US last jailed a top oil trader in 2007-08 when it sent to prison David Chalmers and Oscar Wyatt, the CEOs of Bayoil and Coastal after the Iraq’s Oil-for-Food scandal.”

END

Indonesia lifts palm oil export ban

(zerohedge)

Indonesia Lifts Palm Oil Export Ban As Supply Improves  

FRIDAY, MAY 20, 2022 – 10:00 PM

After nearly a month, Indonesia will lift an export ban on palm oil starting Monday, which could ease tight edible oil markets worldwide and reduce some of the pressure on soaring food prices. 

“Based on the current supply and price of cooking oil and considering that there are 17 million workers in the palm oil industry, both working farmers and other supporting staff, I have decided that the export of cooking oil will reopen on Monday, May 23,” President Joko Widodo said in a statement on Thursday. 

Indonesia is the world’s biggest shipper of edible oils, accounting for nearly 60% of global palm oil production. Palm oil is used in everything from food manufacturing to beauty products to biofuel. The export ban was the most significant act of crop protectionism globally following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that choked the world off of edible oil supplies from the Black Sea region. Sending prices sky-high. 

Widodo decided in late April to impose the export ban because domestic prices were rising and stockpiles were shrinking. The ban authorized shipments of palm oil to be rerouted into domestic supplies. The president expects domestic prices to ease in the coming weeks. 

“Consumers can breathe a sigh of relief now,” Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading and hedging strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental, told Bloomberg

Presidential ratings for the Widodo have slid to a six-year low due to Indonesians’ growing discontent with soaring food prices. 

Bloomberg notes the ban was lifted after hundreds of farmers protested the government, “saying their incomes have suffered because prices of their fresh fruit bunches plunged.” 

END

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.6953

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.70800

HANG SANG CLOSED  UP 59.19 PTS OR 0.29% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 76.34 OR 0.26%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  102.43/Euro FALLS TO 1.0648

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.212/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 126.99/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -SHORE CLOSED  UP//  OFF- SHORE  DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +0.859%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 2.75% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.90%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.58

3j Gold at $1855.60 silver at: 21.80  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN   1.000      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 57.78

3m oil into the 111 dollar handle for WTI and  114 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 126.96 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.620– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.027well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 27368 DOWN 2  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.950 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 16.32

Futures Slide Before Fed Minutes, Dollar Jumps As China Lockdown Fears Return

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 08:00 AM

Another day, another failure by markets to hold on to even the smallest overnight gains: US futures erased earlier profits and dipped as traders prepared for potential volatility surrounding the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes which may provide insight into the central bank’s tightening path, while fears over Chinese lockdowns returned as Beijing recorded more Covid cases and the nearby port city of Tianjin locked down a city-center district. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 were each down 0.5% at 7:30 a.m. in New York after gaining as much as 1% earlier, signaling an extension to Tuesday’s slide that followed a profit warning from Snap.

In premarket trading, Nordstrom jumped 10% after raising its forecast for earnings and revenue for the coming year suggesting that the luxury consumer is doing quite fine even as most of the middle class has tapped out; analysts highlighted the department store’s exposure to higher-end customers.Meanwhile, Wendy’s surged 12% after shareholder Trian Fund Management, billionaire Nelson Peltz’ investment vehicle, said it will explore a transaction that could give it control of the fast-food chain. Here are the most notable premarket movers in the US:

  • Urban Outfitters (URBN US) shares rose as much as 5.7% in premarket trading after Nordstrom’s annual forecasts provided some relief for the beaten down retail sector. Shares rallied even as Urban Outfitters reported lower-than-expected profit and sales for the 1Q.
  • Best Buy (BBY US) shares could be in focus as Citi cuts its price target on electronics retailer to a new Street-low of $65 from $80, saying that there continues to be “significant risk” to 2H estimates.
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS US) sinks as much as 20% premarket after the retailer cut its year adjusted earnings per share and comparable sales guidance for the full year. Peers including Big 5 Sporting Goods, Hibbett and Foot Locker also fell after the DKS earnings release
  • 2U Inc. (TWOU US) shares drop as much as 4.3% in US premarket trading after Piper Sandler downgraded the online educational services provider to underweight from neutral, with broker flagging growing regulatory risk.
  • Verrica Pharma (VRCA US) shares slump as much as 61% in US premarket trading after the drug developer received an FDA Complete Response Letter for its VP-102 molluscum treatment.
  • Shopify’s (SHOP US) U.S.-listed shares fell 0.7% in premarket trading after a second prominent shareholder advisory firm ISS joined its peer Glass Lewis to oppose the Canadian company’s plan to give CEO Tobi Lutke a special “founder share” that will preserve his voting power.
  • Cazoo (CZOO US) shares declined 3.3% in premarket trading as Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the stock with a neutral recommendation, saying the company is well positioned to capture the significant growth in online used car sales.
  • CME Group (CME US Equity) may be in focus as its stock was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Oppenheimer on attractive valuation and an “appealing” dividend policy.

US stocks have slumped this year, with the S&P 500 flirting with a bear market on Friday, as investors fear that the Fed’s active monetary tightening will plunge the economy into a recession: as Bloomberg notes, amid surging inflation, lackluster earnings and bleak company guidance have added to market concerns. The tech sector has been particularly in focus amid higher rates, which mean a bigger discount for the present value of future profits. The Nasdaq 100 index has tumbled to the lowest since November 2020 and its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7 is the lowest since the start of the pandemic and below its 10-year average.

“The consumer in the US is still showing really good signs of strength,” said Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. “Even if there is a slowdown it’s going to be quite mild,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Meanwhile, Barclays Plc strategists including Emmanuel Cau see scope for stocks to fall further if outflows from mutual funds pick up, unless recession fears are alleviated. Retail investors have also not yet fully capitulated and “still look to be buying dips in old favorites in tech/growth,” the strategists said.

“Our central scenario remains that a recession can be avoided and that geopolitical risks will moderate over the course of the year, allowing equities to move higher,” said Mark Haefele,  chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “But recent market falls have underlined the importance of being selective and considering strategies that mitigate volatility.”

The Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points earlier this month — to a target range of 0.75% to 1% — and Chair Jerome Powell has signaled it was on track to make similar-sized moves at its meetings in June and July. Investors are now awaiting the release of the May 3-4 meeting minutes later on Wednesday to evaluate the future path of rate hikes. However, in recent days, traders have dialed back the expected pace of Fed interest-rate increases over worse-than-expected economic data and the selloff in equities. Sales of new US homes fell more in April than economists forecast, and the Richmond Fed’s measure of business activity dropped to a two-year low. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped for a second day to 2.73%.

“Given the risks to growth and our view that positive real rates will be unmanageable for any significant length of time, we expect the Fed to deliver less tightening in 2022 overall than it and markets currently expect,” Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, wrote in a note.

In Europe, stocks pared an earlier advance but hold in the green while the dollar rallies. The Stoxx 600 gave back most of the morning’s gains with autos, financial services and travel weighing while miners and utilities outperformed. The euro slid as comments by European Central Bank officials indicated policy normalization will be gradual. The ECB is in the midst of a debate over how aggressive it should act to rein in inflation. Here are some of the most notable European movers today:

SSE shares rise as much as 6.3% after strong guidance and amid reports that electricity generators are likely to escape windfall taxes being considered by the U.K. government.

  • Air France-KLM jumps as much as 13% in Paris after falling 21% on Tuesday as the airline kicked off a EU2.26 billion rights offering.
  • Mining and energy stocks outperform the broader market in Europe as iron ore rebounded, while oil rose after a report that showed a decline in US gasoline stockpiles. Rio Tinto gains as much as 2.3%, Anglo American +2.6%, TotalEnergies +2.8%, Equinor +3.7%
  • Elekta rises as much as 9.3% after releasing a 4Q earnings report that beat analysts’ expectations.
  • Torm climbs as much as 12% after Pareto initiates coverage at buy and says the company may pay out dividends equal to 40% of its market value over the next 3 years.
  • Mercell rises as much as 104% to NOK6.13/share after recommending a NOK6.3/share offer from Spring Cayman Bidco.
  • Luxury stocks traded lower amid rekindled Covid-19 worries in China as Beijing continued to report new infections while nearby Tianjin locked down its city center. LVMH declines as much as 1.4%, Burberry -2.6% and Hermes -1.7%
  • Sodexo falls as much as 5.7% after the French caterer decided not to open up the capital of its benefits & rewards unit to a partner following a review of the business.
  • Ocado slumps as much as 8% after its grocery joint venture with Marks & Spencer slashed its forecast for FY22 sales growth to low single digits, rather than around 10% guided previously.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were steady as traders continued to gauge growth concerns and fears of a US recession. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1%, paring an earlier increase of as much as 0.5%, as gains in the financial sector were offset by losses in consumer names. New Zealand equities dipped on Wednesday after the central bank delivered an expected half-point interest rate hike to combat inflation. Chinese shares stabilized after the central bank and banking regulator urged lenders to boost loans as the nation grapples with ongoing Covid outbreaks. The benchmark CSI 300 Index snapped a two-day losing streak to close 0.6% higher.

Asian equities have been trading sideways as the prospect of slower growth amid tighter monetary conditions, as well as China’s strict Covid policy and supply-chain disruptions, remain key overhangs for the market. In China, the country’s strict Covid policy is outweighing broad measures to support growth and keeping investors wary. Its commitment to Covid Zero means it’s all but certain to miss its economic growth target by a large margin for the first time ever. The nation’s central bank and banking regulator urged lenders to boost loans in the latest effort to shore up the battered economy.

“The valuation is still nowhere near attractive and you have a number of leading indicators, whether its credit, liquidity or growth, which are not yet indicating that we want to take more risks on the market,” Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. He added that the preferred strategy in equities will focus on defensive plays like resources and income. Investors will get further clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policies with the release in Washington of minutes from the latest meeting on Wednesday. Concerns that the Fed’s tightening will plunge the nation into recession had spurred a sharp selloff in US shares recently.

Japanese stocks ended a bumpy day lower as investors awaited minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting and continued to gauge the impact of China’s rising Covid cases. The Topix fell 0.1% to close at 1,876.58, while the Nikkei declined 0.3% to 26,677.80. Nintendo Co. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 4.3%. Out of 2,171 shares in the index, 793 rose and 1,257 fell, while 121 were unchanged.

Meanwhile, Australian stocks bounced with the S&P/ASX 200 index rising 0.4% to close at 7,155.20, with banks and miners contributing the most to its move. Costa Group was the top performer after reaffirming its operating capex guidance. Chalice Mining dropped after an equity raising. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.7% to 11,173.37 after the RBNZ’s policy decision. The central bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point for a second straight meeting and forecast further aggressive hikes to come to tame inflation.

India’s key equity indexes fell for the third consecutive session, dragged by losses in software makers as worries grow over companies’ spending on technology amid a clouded growth outlook. The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 0.6% to 53,749.26 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped 0.6%. The benchmark has retreated for all but four sessions this month, slipping 5.8%, dragged by Infosys, Tata Consultancy and Reliance Industries. All but two of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. fell on Wednesday, led by information technology stocks. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 12 rose and 18 fell. The S&P BSE IT Index has lost nearly 26% this year and is trading at its lowest level since June. 

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index resumed rising, up 0.3% with all G-10 FX in the red against the dollar. The euro slipped and Italian bonds extended gains after comments from ECB officials. Executive board member Fabio Panetta said the ECB shouldn’t seek to raise its interest rates too far as long as the euro-area economy displays continuing signs of fragility. Board Member Olli Rehn said the ECB should raise rates to zero in autumn. The pound was steady against the dollar and gained versus the euro, paring some of its losses from Tuesday. Focus is on the long-awaited report into lockdown parties at No. 10. The BOE needs to tighten policy further to fight rising inflation, but it’s also wary of acting too quickly and risking pushing the UK into recession, according to Chief Economist Huw Pill. Sweden’s krona slumped on the back of a stronger dollar and amid data showing that consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis. Yen eased as Treasury yields steadied in Asia from an overnight plunge.  China’s offshore yuan weakened for the first time in five days as Beijing recorded more Covid cases and the nearby port city of Tianjin locked down a city-center district.

New Zealand dollar and sovereign yields rose after the RBNZ hiked rates by 50 basis points for a second straight meeting and forecast more aggressive tightening, with the cash rate seen peaking at 3.95% in 2023.

Most emerging-market currencies also weakened against a stronger dollar as investors await minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting for clues on the pace of US rate hikes.  The ruble extended its recent rally in Moscow even as Russia’s central bank moved up the date of its next interest-rate meeting by more than two weeks to stem gains in the currency with more monetary easing. Russia has been pushed closer to a potential default. US banks and individuals are barred from accepting bond payments from Russia’s government since 12:01 a.m. New York time on Wednesday, when a license that had allowed the cash to flow ended. The lira lagged most of its peers, weakening for a fourth day amid expectations that Turkey’s central bank will keep rates unchanged on Thursday even after consumer prices rose an annual 70% in April.

In rates, Treasuries were steady with yields slightly richer across long-end of the curve as S&P 500 futures edge lower, holding small losses. US 10-year yields around 2.745% are slightly richer vs Tuesday’s close; long-end outperformance tightens 5s30s spread by 1.4bp on the day with 30-year yields lower by ~1bp. Bunds outperform by 2bp in 10-year sector while gilts lag slightly with no major catalyst. Focal points of US session include durable goods orders data, 5-year note auction and minutes of May 3-4 FOMC meeting. The US auction cycle resumes at 1pm ET with $48b 5-year note sale, concludes Thursday with $42b 7-year notes; Tuesday’s 2-year auction stopped through despite strong rally into bidding deadline. The WI 5-year yield at ~2.740% is ~4.5bp richer than April auction, which tailed by 0.9bp.

In commodities, WTI pushed higher, heading back toward best levels of the week near $111.60. Most base metals trade in the red; LME aluminum falls 2.3%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $10 to trade around $1,856/oz. Spot silver loses 1.1% to around.

Bitcoin trades on either side of USD 30k with no real direction.

Looking to the day ahead now, and central bank publications include the FOMC minutes from their May meeting and the ECB’s Financial Stability Review. Separately, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Rehn, Panetta, Holzmann, de Cos and Lane, BoJ Governor Kuroda, Fed Vice Chair Brainard and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Otherwise, data releases from the US include preliminary April data on durable goods orders and core capital goods orders.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,942.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 433.41
  • MXAP little changed at 163.41
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 531.42
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 26,677.80
  • Topix little changed at 1,876.58
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 20,171.27
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,107.46
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 53,763.20
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,155.24
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,617.22
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.94%
  • Euro down 0.5% to $1.0677
  • Brent Futures up 1.0% to $114.69/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,856.22
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.30% to 102.16

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • New Zealand dollar and sovereign yields rose after the RBNZ hiked rates by 50 basis points and forecast more aggressive tightening, with the cash rate seen peaking at 3.95% in 2023
  • The euro slipped and Italian bonds extended gains after comments from ECB officials. Executive board member Fabio Panetta said the ECB shouldn’t seek to raise its interest rates too far as long as the euro-area economy displays continuing signs of fragility. Board Member Olli Rehn said the ECB should raise rates to zero in autumn
  • The pound was steady against the dollar and gained versus the euro, paring some of its losses from Tuesday. Focus is on the long-awaited report into lockdown parties at No. 10
  • The BOE needs to tighten policy further to fight rising inflation, but it’s also wary of acting too quickly and risking pushing the UK into recession, according to Chief Economist Huw Pill
  • Sweden’s krona slumped on the back of a stronger dollar and amid data showing that consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis
  • Yen eased as Treasury yields steadied in Asia from an overnight plunge

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped and price action choppy after a lacklustre lead from global counterparts as poor data from the US and Europe stoked growth concerns, while the region also reflected on the latest provocations by North Korea and the RBNZ’s rate increase. ASX 200 was led higher by commodity-related stocks despite the surprise contraction in Construction Work. Nikkei 225 remained subdued after recent currency inflows and with sentiment clouded by geopolitical tensions. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were marginally higher following further support efforts by the PBoC and CBIRC which have explored increasing loans with major institutions and with the central bank to boost credit support, although the upside is contained amid the ongoing COVID concerns and with Beijing said to tighten restrictions among essential workers.

Top Asian News

  • US SEC official said significant issues remain in reaching a deal with China over audit inspections and even if US and China reach a deal on proceeding with inspections, they would still have a long way to go, according to Bloomberg.
  • China will be seeing a Pacific Island Agreement when Senior Diplomat Wang Yi visits the region next week, according to documents cited by Reuters.
  • North Korea Fires Suspected ICBM as Biden Wraps Up Asia Tour
  • Luxury Stocks Slip Again as China Covid-19 Worries Persist
  • Asia Firms Keep SPAC Dream Alive Despite Poor Returns: ECM Watch
  • Powerlong 2022 Dollar Bonds Fall Further, Poised for Worst Week

In Europe the early optimism across the equity complex faded in early trading. Major European indices post mild broad-based gains with no real standouts. Sectors initially opened with an anti-defensive bias but have since reconfigured to a more pro-defensive one. Stateside, US equity futures have trimmed earlier gains, with relatively broad-based gains seen across the contracts; ES (+0.1%).

Top European News

  • Aiming ECB Rate at Neutral Risks Hurting Economy, Panetta Says
  • M&S Says Russia Exit, Inflation to Prevent Profit Growth
  • Prudential Names Citi Veteran Wadhwani as Insurer’s Next CEO
  • EU’s Gentiloni Eyes Deal on Russian Oil Embargo: Davos Update
  • UK’s Poorest to See Inflation Hit Near Double Pace of the Rich

FX

  • Buck builds a base before Fed speak, FOMC minutes and US data – DXY tops 102.250 compared to low of 101.640 on Tuesday.
  • Kiwi holds up well after RBNZ hike, higher OCR outlook and Governor Orr outlining the need to tighten well beyond neutral – Nzd/Usd hovers above 0.6450 and Aud/Nzd around 1.0950.
  • Euro pulls back sharply as ECB’s Panetta counters aggressive rate guidance with gradualism to avoid a normalisation tantrum – Eur/Usd sub-1.0700 and Eur/Gbp under 0.8550.
  • Aussie undermined by flagging risk sentiment and contraction in Q1 construction work completed – Aud/Usd retreats through 0.7100.
  • Loonie and Nokkie glean some underlying traction from oil returning to boiling point – Usd/Cad capped into 1.2850, Eur/Nok pivots 10.2500.
  • Franc, Yen and Sterling all make way for Greenback revival – Usd/Chf bounces through 0.9600, Usd/Jpy over 127.00 and Cable close to 1.2500.

Fixed Income

  • Choppy trade in bonds amidst fluid risk backdrop and ongoing flood of global Central Bank rhetoric, Bunds and Gilts fade just above 154.00 and 119.00.
  • Eurozone periphery outperforming as ECB’s Panetta urges gradualism to avoid a normalisation tantrum and Knot backs President Lagarde on ZIRP by end Q3 rather than going 50 bp in one hit.
  • US Treasuries flat-line before US data, Fed’s Brainard, FOMC minutes and 5-year supply – 10 year T-note midway between 120-21/09+ parameters.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent July futures are firmer intraday with little newsflow throughout the European morning.
  • US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +0.6mln (exp. -0.7mln), Gasoline -4.2mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillates -0.9mln (exp. +0.9mln), Cushing -0.7mln.
  • Spot gold is pressured by the recovery in the Dollar but found some support at its 21 DMA.
  • Base metals are pressured by the turn in the risk tone this morning.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: May MBA Mortgage Applications -1.2%, prior -11.0%
  • 08:30: April Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.6%, prior 1.1%
    • -Less Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 1.4%
  • 08:30: April Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.4%
  • 08:30: April Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 1.3%

Central Banks

  • 12:15: Fed’s Brainard Delivers Commencement Address
  • 14:00: May FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This morning we’ve launched our latest monthly survey. In it we try to ask questions that aren’t easy to derive from market pricing. For example we ask whether you think a recession is a price worth paying to tame inflation back to target. We also ask whether you think the Fed will think the same. We ask whether you think bubbles are still in markets and whether the bottom is in for equities. We also ask you the best hedge against inflation from a small list of mainstream assets. Hopefully it will be of use and the more people that fill it in the more useful it might be so all help welcome. The link is here.

Talking of inflation I had a huge shock yesterday. The first quote of three came back from builders for what I hope will be our last ever renovation project as we upgrade a dilapidated old outbuilding. Given the job I do I’d like to think I’m fully aware of commodity price effects and labour shortages pushing up costs but nothing could have prepared me for a quote 250% higher than what I expected. We have two quotes to come but if they don’t come in nearer to my expectations then we’re either going to shelve/postpone the project after a couple of years of planning or my work output might reduce as I learn how to lay bricks, plumb, tile, make and install windows and plaster amongst other things. Maybe I could sell the rights of my journey from banker to builder to Netflix to make up for lost earnings.

Rather like my building quote expectations, markets came back down to earth yesterday, only avoiding a fresh closing one-year low in the S&P 500 via a late-day rally that sent the market from intra-day lows of -2.48% earlier in the session to -0.81% at the close and giving back just under half the gains from the best Monday since January. Having said that S&P futures are up +0.6% this morning so we’ve had a big swing from the lows yesterday afternoon.

The blame for the weak market yesterday was put on weak economic data alongside negative corporate news. US tech stocks saw the biggest losses as the NASDAQ (-2.35%) hit its lowest level in over 18 months following Snap’s move to cut its profit forecasts that we mentioned in yesterday’s edition. The stock itself fell -43.08%. Indeed, the NASDAQ just barely avoided closing more than -30% (-29.85%) from its all-time high reached back in November. The S&P 500’s closing loss leaves it +1.03% week to date as it tries to avoid an 8th consecutive weekly decline for just the third time since our data starts in 1928. Typical defensive sectors Utilities (+2.01%), staples (+1.66%), and real estate (+1.21%) drove the intraday recovery, so even with the broad index off the day’s lows, the decomposition points to continued growth fears.

Investors had already been braced for a more difficult day following the Monday night news from Snap, but further fuel was then added to the fire after US data releases significantly underwhelmed shortly after the open. First, the flash composite PMI for May fell to 53.8 (vs. 55.7 expected), marking a second consecutive decline in that measure. And then the new home sales data for April massively underperformed with the number falling to an annualised 591k (vs. 749k expected), whilst the March reading was also revised down to an annualised 709k (vs. 763k previously). That 591k reading left new home sales at their lowest since April 2020 during the Covid shutdowns, and comes against the backdrop of a sharp rise in mortgage rates as the Fed have tightened policy, with the 30-year fixed rate reported by Freddie Mac rising from 3.11% at the end of 2021 to 5.25% in the latest reading last week.

The strong defensive rotation in the S&P 500 and continued fears of a recession saw investors pour into Treasuries, which have been supported by speculation that the Fed might not be able to get far above neutral if those growth risks do materialise. Yields on 10yr Treasuries ended the day down -10.1bps at 2.75%, and the latest decline in the 10yr inflation breakeven to 2.58% leaves it at its lowest closing level since late-February, just after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine that led to a spike in global commodity prices. And with investors growing more worried about growth and less worried about inflation, Fed funds futures took out -11.5bps of expected tightening by the December meeting, and saw terminal fed funds futures pricing next year close below 3.00% for the first time in two weeks. 10 year US yields are back up a basis point this morning.

Over in Europe there was much the same pattern of equity losses and advances for sovereign bonds. However, the decline in yields was more muted after there was further chatter about a potential 50bp hike from the ECB. Austrian central bank governor Holzmann said that “A bigger step at the start of our rate-hike cycle would make sense”, and Latvian central bank governor Kazaks also said that a 50bp hike was “certainly one thing that we could discuss”. Along with Dutch central bank governor Knot, that’s now 3 members of the Governing Council who’ve openly discussed the potential they could move by 50bps as the Fed has done, and markets seem to be increasingly pricing in a chance of that, with the amount of hikes priced in by the July meeting closing at a fresh high of 32.5bps yesterday.

In spite of the growing talk about a 50bp move at a single meeting, the broader risk-off tone yesterday led to a decline in sovereign bond yields across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (-4.9bps), OATs (-4.3bps) and BTPs (-5.9bps) all falling back. Equities struggled alongside their US counterparts, and the STOXX 600 (-1.14%) ended the day lower, as did the DAX (-1.80%) and the CAC 40 (-1.66%). The flash PMIs were also somewhat underwhelming at the margins, with the Euro Area composite PMI falling a bit more than expected to 54.9 (vs. 55.1 expected).

Over in the UK there were even larger moves after the country’s flash PMIs significantly underperformed expectations. The composite PMI fell to 51.8 (vs. 56.5 expected), which is the lowest reading since February 2021 when the country was still in lockdown. In turn, that saw sterling weaken against the other major currencies as investors dialled back the amount of expected tightening from the Bank of England, with a fall of -0.44% against the US dollar. That also led to a relative outperformance in gilts, with 10yr yields down -8.3bps. And on top of that, there were signs of further issues on the cost of living down the tracks, with the CEO of the UK’s energy regulator Ofgem saying that the energy price cap was set to increase to a record £2,800 in October, an increase of more than 40% from its current level.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning with the Hang Seng (+0.64%), Shanghai Composite (+0.58%), CSI (+0.17%) and Kospi (+0.80%) trading in positive territory with the Nikkei (-0.03%) trading fractionally lower.

Earlier today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), in a widely anticipated move, hiked the official cash rate (OCR) by 50bps to 2.0%, its fifth-rate hike in a row in a bid to get on top of inflation which is currently running at a 31-year high. The central bank has significantly increased its forecast of how high the OCR might rise in the coming years with the cash rate jumping to about 3.4% by the end of this year and peaking at 3.95% in the third quarter of 2023. Additionally, it forecasts the OCR to start falling towards the end of 2024. Following the release of the statement, the New Zealand dollar hit a three-week high of 0.65 against the US dollar.

Elsewhere, as we mentioned last week, today marks the expiration of the US Treasury Department’s temporary waiver that allowed Russia to make sovereign debt payments to US creditors. US investors will no longer be able to receive such payments, pushing Russia closer to default on its outstanding sovereign debt.

To the day ahead now, and central bank publications include the FOMC minutes from their May meeting and the ECB’s Financial Stability Review. Separately, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Rehn, Panetta, Holzmann, de Cos and Lane, BoJ Governor Kuroda, Fed Vice Chair Brainard and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Otherwise, data releases from the US include preliminary April data on durable goods orders and core capital goods orders.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHTDAY 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 36.54 PTS OR 1.19%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 59.19 PTS OR 0.26%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 76.34 OR 0.26%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.25%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6,6954    /Oil UP TO 111.09dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 114.62 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6954 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6708: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/

3B  JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

COVID//LOCKDOWNS/SHANGHAI/ECONOMY

China Will Struggle To Reach Positive GDP This Quarter Premier Says, Warning Economy “To Some Degree” Worse Than 2020

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 11:25 AM

Over the weekend, we quoted Goldman’s head of hedge fund sales Tony Pasquariello who had some very choice words for China, saying its economy was so bad, “it’s simply eye-popping (witness the worst IP print on record)”, and prompted Goldman’s sellside research desk to cut its expectation for 2022 Chinese GDP growth to just 4%, which ex-2020 would be the slowest growth rate since 1990! For the sake of balance, Pasquariello noted that Shanghai was set to reopen on June 1st which could be a potential upside catalyst at a time when foreign investors have largely written away Chinese equities.

Fast forward to today when we find that Pasquariello’s hedging was not necessary, because on Wednesday, China’s Premier Li Keqiang held a teleconference this afternoon under the topic of “stabilizing economic growth” with provincial, city-level and county-level local government officials across the country in which he had some very dismal comments about the current state of China’s economy.

As Goldman notes, “while there are not many new measures being announced from this conference, the nature and scale of this conference is quite unusual. Chinese policymakers are in greater urgency to support the economy after the very weak activity growth in April, anemic recovery month-to-date in May, and continued increases in unemployment rates.”

Specifically, premier Li said China’s economy is worse off to a “certain extent” than 2020 when the pandemic first emerged, urging efforts to reduce the unemployment rate which as we noted recently has soared to the highest level since the covid crash.

“Economic indicators in China have fallen significantly, and difficulties in some aspects and to a certain extent are greater than when the epidemic hit us severely in 2020,” Li said Wednesday following a meeting with local authorities, state-owned companies and financial firms to discuss how to stabilize the economy, Bloomberg reported.

China’s premier also said the world’s second-largest economy would struggle to record positive growth in the current quarter, urging officials to help companies resume production after Covid-19 lockdowns, according to the FT.

“We will try to make sure the economy grows in the second quarter,” Li said, according to a transcript that the Financial Times verified with three people briefed on the premier’s remarks. “This is not a high target and a far cry from our 5.5 per cent goal. But we have to do so.”

The last time China’s growth entered negative territory was when output plunged 6.9 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2020 after the coronavirus pandemic ended an era of uninterrupted growth dating back more than 30 years.

The comments by Li Keqiang, to tens of thousands of officials on an internal videocast on Wednesday, underscore the difficulties President Xi Jinping’s administration will have in reaching its annual growth target of 5.5% while also battling Omicron outbreaks.

Concerned that the unemployment rate is approaching levels where the dreaded “social unrest” becomes a possibility, the premier urged officials to make sure the unemployment rate falls and the economy “operates in a reasonable range” in the second quarter of this year, state media cited him as saying. Earlier in May, Li warned of a “complicated and grave” employment situation after the nation’s surveyed jobless rate climbed to 6.1% in April, the highest since February 2020, and sent the yuan plunging to the lowest level since late 2020.

Today’s meeting was the latest in a series of urgent calls by Li (who is quitting his job next March) to shore up the economy, which has come under enormous pressure from Covid outbreaks and lockdowns in recent months, threatening the government’s growth target of about 5.5%. President Xi’s stubborn commitment to Covid Zero means China is guaranteed to miss that goal this year: Economists now forecast gross domestic product growth will hit just 4.5%, according to a new Bloomberg survey, with Goldman predicting GDP will rise just 4.0% as noted above.

In hopes of offsetting some of the gloom and doom unleashed by Beijing’s flawed covid policies, Li indicated that China will try to reduce the impact of its strict Zero-Covid policy on the economy. “At the same time as controlling the epidemic, we must complete the task of economic development,” he said.

Li also stressed implementation of current support policies, and said more detailed implementation measures would be issued by the end of this month. Somewhat bizarrely, he said that economic data for the second quarter would be released “accurately”, hinting that prior Chinese data was – gasp – inaccurate? Perish the thought.

As Bloomberg reported earlier this week, China’s State Council outlined 33 support measures on Monday to help businesses struggling to cope with the lockdowns, including extra tax rebates, relief on social insurance payments and loans, and additional funding for aviation and rail construction. Local governments were told to spend most of the proceeds from special bonds — used mainly for infrastructure — by the end of August. Judging by the lack of market reaction, investors saw right through this latest mostly verbal attempt to prop up confidence in the country ahead of the 20th Party Congress later this year, where Xi’s fate will be determine (amid some rumors that his political career may be cut short if China’s economy does not stabilize).

The central bank and banking regulator also held a meeting with major financial institutions on Monday to urge them to boost loans.
Li met with local authorities in April, when Shanghai was in the middle of a lockdown, telling them to “add a sense of urgency” as they rolled out policy. During a trip to Yunnan province last week, he said they should “act decisively” to support growth. Of course, when banks artificially inject loans into an economy where there is no loan demand, what you end up getting is just another bubble.

end

CHINA/RUSSIA/USA/TAIWAN

China Holds Live Fire Combat Drills Near Taiwan As Response To Biden Defense Pledge

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 04:40 PM

China on Wednesday revealed that it held fresh military drills near Taiwan while Joe Biden was wrapping up his first trip to Asia as president. A statement cited “joint patrol and combat readiness operations near Taiwan” while the US leader was in Tokyo where he was meeting with leaders of the other “Quad” nations of Japan, India, and Australia. The military further warned of “collusion” between the US and Taiwan:

Shi Yi, from the PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command, said on Wednesday that the joint naval and air combat-readiness exercise by the People’s Liberation Army was a “solemn warning against recent collusion between the United States and Taiwan”.

The Wednesday statement was issued by the People‘s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command, confirming it held live fire combat readiness exercises both in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. “It is hypocritical and futile for the United States to say one thing and do another on the Taiwan issue,” the spokesman, Shi added.

During his Tokyo visit Biden surprised the media and officials by committing to defend Taiwan militarily when asked by a reporter what the US would do in the event of a Chinese invasion. The White House subsequently tried to walk back the comments, stressing that the One China status quo policy has not changed. Beijing condemned the statement, issuing its oft repeated line that the US is “playing with fire”. The Biden pledge to defend Taiwan came Monday, with the PLA drills coming apparently the day after.

According to more from the statement:

Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesman for the PLA Eastern Theater Command, said the patrol was launched as a warning against recent US support for “Taiwan independence” forces.

“Taiwan is a part of China, and the PLA Eastern Theater Command is determined to safeguard national sovereignty and regional peace and stability,” the spokesman said on Wednesday.

State-backed media outlet The People’s Daily reported China has recently organized “different branches of the forces for joint patrols and live-fire training exercises” in Taiwanese territory.

Further the Chinese Defense Ministry’s website denounced the US for “hypocritical and useless” actions that continue to wrongly encourage Taiwan’s pro-independence forces.

The PLA has “the resolution and capability to thwart any external forces’ interference and secessionist attempts for ‘Taiwan independence’, and to firmly safeguard national sovereignty and security as well as regional peace and stability,” the military statement said further.

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On Tuesday it was widely reported that China participated in a provocative joint air patrol with Russia that included nuclear-capable bombers and fighter jets flying over the Sea of Japan and the Western Pacific. It lasted for an estimated 13 hours.

However, a follow-up statement from the Chinese government on Wednesday stressed that the joint patrol was “routine” (as in it happens annually) and supposedly not aimed at any specific outside country. However…

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According to the statement cited in Bloomberg, “China says its joint strategic air patrol with Russia May 24 doesn’t target any third party and has nothing to do with the current international and regional situations, according to a statement from the defense ministry.”

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

ECB/NEGATIVE RATES

Negative rates have been a bust from day one.

Now Lagarde despite real inflation rates above 10% will try and end her negative rates by third quater

good luck to here:

(Mish talk)

ECB Hopes To End Negative Interest Rates By The End Of The Third Quarter

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 10:45 AM

By Mish of MishTalk,

Despite inflation at 7.5%, the ECB struggles to get rates above zero percent. A liftoff to zero is my Hoot of the Day.

Politico reports Eurozone Inflation Hits Fresh Record as Growth Slows

Eurozone growth slowed in the first quarter while inflation hit a fresh record high in April, data released by the EU statistics agency showed Friday, stoking fears of stagflation.

Economic growth slowed to 0.2 percent on the quarter from 0.3 percent in the final three months of last year. At the country level, GDP grew by 0.3 percent in Spain and 0.2 percent in Germany, while France stagnated and Italy contracted.

Inflation accelerated further to 7.5 percent in April from 7.4 percent in the previous month. High prices continue to be driven primarily by energy costs, which were up 38 percent on the year. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile factors of food and energy, accelerated from 3.2 percent to 3.9 percent — suggesting that high prices are becoming more entrenched.

Looking at member states, the Baltics were hit hardest. In Estonia, prices were up 19.0 percent, in Lithuania 16.6 percent and in Latvia 13.3 percent.

In the largest member states, by contrast, inflation remained comparatively contained. France was among the lowest, with 5.4 percent. In Italy, inflation was 6.6 percent, and in Germany, 7.8 percent.

New Definition of Contained 

France has 5.4% inflation, Italy 6.6%, and Germany 7.8%. Those numbers look good compared to Estonia at 19.%, Lithuania at 16.6% and Latvia at 13.3%.

This highlights two key things: The idiocy of negative rates and the impossible task of coming up with one rate for the Eurozone that makes any sense at all, positive or negative.

No Panic Yet!

Normalization ECB Style 

A blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, discusses  Monetary Policy Normalization in the Euro Area

Households are the ones suffering most from higher import prices, as rising energy and food inflation are eating into real incomes, and nominal wages are not yet catching up. In fact, real wage growth turned negative in the fourth quarter of last year – the last data point we have – and real wages are likely to be contracting even faster now due to rising inflationary pressures.

High energy costs and supply shortages are now also starting to be felt in industrial production, which contracted in nearly all major economies in March.

Against the backdrop of the evidence I presented above, I expect net purchases under the APP to end very early in the third quarter. This would allow us a rate lift-off at our meeting in July, in line with our forward guidance. Based on the current outlook, we are likely to be in a position to exit negative interest rates by the end of the third quarter.

A Liftoff to Zero!

Note that despite 7.5% inflation the ECB is still conducting QE. The QE ends in July. 

Lagarde defended this economic lunacy with a notion of “a genuine risk of too-low inflation becoming entrenched.”

Lagarde says “the ECB’s policy settings were fully focused on dislodging this disinflationary environment.”

Like the Fed, the ECB was hell bent on producing two percent inflation no matter what it took. 

But it will not be until the end of September before Lagarde pencils in a liftoff to zero percent. By then, the entire Eurozone will be in a rip roaring recession. 

For this ridiculous ideology, Christine Lagarde gets my “Hoot of the Day” award.

These central bankers are truly incompetent, almost beyond belief. 

Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

Please note a BIS study shows routine price deflation is a benefit, not a curse. 

In their attempts to fight routine consumer price deflation, central bankers create very destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse, setting off what they should fear – asset bubble deflations.

For discussion, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

end

IRAN

Anti government protests spread in Iran. Flour based food staples jump 300%/ Prices are up 300%

(zerohedge)

Anti-Government Protests Spread In Iran After Flour-Based Food Staples Jump 300%

FRIDAY, MAY 20, 2022 – 09:20 PM

Large-scale street protests have been raging in Iran since last week, as inflation and the war in Ukraine have driven flour-based food staples to jump by as much as 300% – this also after the government moved to cut food subsidies.

Amid the soaring prices, already in an economy devastated by years of US sanctions gong back to the Trump administration’s pullout of the JCPOA nuclear deal, the central government has few options in terms of relief for the populace given assets abroad remain frozen.Illustrative, prior protest: AP

Demonstrators have been outraged over food prices and lack of urgent supplies such as medicines, leading to clashes with police deploying riot control measures. 

According to the latest reports, “Social media footage not verified by Reuters showed at least six people killed and dozens injured in past days. There has been no official comment on any death toll.” However, these widespread reports have been hard to verify.

Reuters observed that “On Thursday footage posted on social media showed intense clashes in cities including Farsan in central Iran, where riot police fired live rounds at demonstrators. In Shahr-e Kord and Hafshejan, security forces used teargas and clubs to disperse the protesters.”

Over the past several days sporadic internet cuts have been reported in some provinces, which is part of the central government’s playbook for preventing large-scale street rallies from taking place.

“Iranian officials have also blamed the price hikes on the smuggling of heavily subsidized flour into neighbouring Iraq and Afghanistan,” The Guardian wrote of recent street clashes.

Last Sunday saw demonstrations break out reportedly across 40 cities and towns, chiefly concentrated in the south and southwest, and a handful of cities in the north. They’ve reportedly spread to or near the capital of Tehran, according to a Friday report in Middle East Monitor:

Anti-government protests sparked by rising food prices in Iran have spread to at least six provinces including the capital, Tehran.

Earlier this month, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi approved subsidy reforms aimed at controlling commodity prices in a bid to mitigate the impact of rising global wheat prices and US sanctions on the Iranian economy.

Other countries in the region, particularly Lebanon and Syria, have seen people’s ability to access affordable food products and basic staples worsen. Middle East and North Africa populations are expected to be hit hardest by supply blockages out of both Ukraine and Russia. In particular war-torn Ukraine was the fourth-largest exporter of maize (corn) in the 2020/21 season, and the sixth-largest wheat exporter in the world, according to the International Grains Council.

Prior to the Russian invasion, there were 6 million tons of wheat and 15 million tons of corn ready for export.  Farmers in top growing areas in the southern part of the country, such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, have halted sowing operations due to the lack of farm equipment, shortage of diesel, fertilizer, and seed as the disruptions caused by the conflict.

 END

TURKEY/GREECE

What does the jerk Erdogan expect.   He has been trying to steal their gas reserves

(zerohedge)

Erdogan Blasts Greek Prime Minister For Lobbying US Against Turkey F-16 Sale

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 07:00 AM

Turkey-Greece relations are once again breaking down after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said this week he no longer recognizes the leader of neighboring Greece, further rejecting a planned summit wherein the two were set to meet. It marks the latest inter-NATO rift, amid the ongoing spat related to Finland and Sweden’s bids to join the Western military alliance.

Turkey is outraged over recent comments by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announcing his country’s intent to acquire the Lockheed Martin produced F-35 stealth fighter jet, after Turkey was previously blocked from the program during the Trump administration in 2019. At the same time while Mitsotakis visited the White House last week, he’s reported to have been strongly “lobbying against Turkey’s attempts to upgrade its aging fleet of F-16s and acquire additional aircraft.” All of this appears too much of a humiliation for Erdogan to sit idly by.Image: Ekathimerini news

“We will launch the process for the acquisition of a squadron of F-35 aircraft, and we do hope to be able to add this fantastic plane to the Greek Air Force before the end of this decade,” Mitsotakis had said at the White House. He also affirmed that Lockheed Martin, maker of the F-35s and F-16s, “officially expressed its interest in investing in Hellenic aerospace” in statements just prior to his Washington trip.

On Tuesday Erdogan reacted fiercely to these latest reports, saying“There’s no longer anyone called Mitsotakis in my book.” The words came after he was briefed during a cabinet meeting. “I will never agree to have a meeting with him because we only walk on the same path as politicians who keep their promises who have character and who are honorable.”

Erdogan charged the Greek PM with actively trying to block the sale of the F-16 fighters. But he stressed that the United States “will make up its own mind on selling F-16s” regardless. The BBC adds, describing Erdogan’s words to reporters:

Mr Erdogan said this amounted to lobbying US officials against Turkey and violated an agreement “not to involve third countries” in disputes between Ankara and Athens.

Athens responded to the fresh accusations by saying it would not get into “confrontation of statements” over the issue.

Erdogan further took the opportunity to accuse Greece once again of providing safe-haven to terrorists, something he’s also in past days lashed out at Sweden over amid its attempt to join NATO. Calling Greece’s own admission into NATO in 1980 a “mistake” – the Turkish leader has said Greece is harboring the “Gülenist Terror Group FETÖ”.

Greece and Turkey have also long been historically at odds over the status of Cyprus, but also in recent years energy exploration rights around the island-nation, as well as in Greece-recognized waters that Turkish drilling ships are accused of repeatedly violating.

end

IRANUSA/EUROPE

Iran Deal Has Sunk As Biden Keeps IRGC On Terror List; Tehran “Evaded” Nuclear Inspectors For Years

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 03:26 PM

At this point it looks like hopes for a restored Iran nuclear deal have effectively sunk, given that Politico is reporting President Biden has decided against taking the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) off the designated terrorist list. “President Joe Biden has finalized his decision to keep Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on a terrorist blacklist, according to a senior Western official, further complicating international efforts to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal,” Politico writes Wednesday.

The Israeli government has already been informed: “Another person familiar with the matter said Biden conveyed his decision during an April 24 phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, adding that the decision was conveyed as absolutely final and that the window for Iranian concessions had closed,” according to the report.

But removing the designation was of course a key stipulation of the Iranians in Vienna. Tehran has blamed Washington for the indefinite pause in talks, waiting for this final hurdle towards a restored JPOA to be removed. At the same time Biden’s lead envoy on the Iran nuclear talks, Rob Malley, told a Senate panel Wednesday the status of the talks are now “tenuous at best”.

The Biden White House is fully aware that this action is likely to torpedo a nuclear deal which has long been in the negotiating process for most of last year. The irony is that the IRGC being a designated terror group has little to no impact on its financing or operations, according to the consensus of many reports over prior months.

For example, geopolitical analyst Daniel Larison writes that the US actually has nothing to gain in terms of degrading the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities with such a move:

Biden’s decision to leave the entire IRGC on the list is the wrong one, but more than that it is a remarkably stupid decision because the designation has served no purpose. This is not a case of weighing between different priorities and considering the tradeoffs between them. If the US gained something from keeping the IRGC on the list, there might at least be something to debate, but the administration itself doesn’t believe that the designation matters. As Peter Beinart pointed out earlier this month, “By its own admission, the Biden administration is risking the Iran nuclear deal for nothing.” Biden is jeopardizing what should be a major policy success for the sake of preserving an empty gesture of hostility.

He further calls the question of the IRGC’s designation “likely the last chance that Biden had to salvage the nuclear deal” – which had been a year in the making, taking up much of the first part of Biden’s administration. 

Thus it appears the hawks have won out, but it also comes as a major investigative report in The Wall Street Journal alleges that Iran has been covering up its nuclear weapons aspirations for years by allegedly falsifying a document trail with an eye toward covering up past work on a hidden nuclear weapons program… 

“Iran secured access to secret United Nations atomic agency reports almost two decades ago and circulated the documents among top officials who prepared cover stories and falsified a record to conceal suspected past work on nuclear weapons, according to Middle East intelligence officials and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NlbnNpdGl2ZV9tZWRpYV9pbnRlcnN0aXRpYWxfMTM5NjMiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiaW50ZXJzdGl0aWFsIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9yZXN1bHRfbWlncmF0aW9uXzEzOTc5Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InR3ZWV0X3Jlc3VsdCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1529407870542004224&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Firan-deal-sunk-biden-keep-irgc-terror-list-amid-report-tehran-deceived-nuclear&sessionId=5f264244317489417a046b33f0f98549327750d3&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

Persian-language Iranian records reveal some of the tactics used, reportedly with an aim to falsify and evade external monitoring and checks ahead of the Obama-brokered 2015 nuclear deal.

“According to Middle East intelligence officials, the documents from the IAEA were circulated between 2004 and 2006 among Iranian military, government, and nuclear program officials,” the report says. “The IAEA was tasked with investigating information that suggested Iran worked on nuclear weapons, however, armed with the IAEA documents Iran was likely able to cover evidence and twist narratives before the agency paid a visit.”

The records were reportedly obtained from a 2018 covert Israeli intelligence raid on a facility said to contain documented evidence of an alleged ongoing nuclear program, which the Israelis have since handed on to the US for its review. However, this also means these bombshell charges should be evaluated with a big grain of salt, given the ‘evidence’ originated with a foreign intelligence service which is Iran’s longtime bitter enemy

END.

RUSSIAN/UKRAINE UPDATE FROM ROBERT

This was reported in Tass today

Inbox

Robert HryniakTue, May 24, 5:45 PM (15 hours ago)
to

“In the past 24 hours, Russian operational-tactical and army aviation aircraft wiped out two Ukrainian command posts, three ammunition depots, 80 areas of amassed manpower and military hardware, and also a Buk-M1 surface-to-air missile system near Pilipchatino in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the general said.

“The air strikes eliminated over 210 nationalists and destroyed 31 pieces of military equipment,” the spokesman said.

Russian troops delivered strikes by air-launched precision missiles to destroy a battalion of Ukraine’s 14th mechanized brigade and a depot of shells for US howitzers, Konashenkov said.

“In the past 24 hours, air-launched precision missiles eliminated the following targets: three command posts, 36 areas of amassed Ukrainian manpower and military hardware, a self-propelled artillery battalion of the 14th mechanized brigade near the settlement of Soledar,” the spokesman said.

The Russian forces also wiped out six ammunition depots near the communities of Minkovka, Bakhmut, Nikolayevka, Spornoye and Krasny Liman in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the general specified.

“In particular, they hit a large depot of 155mm shells for US-made M-777 howitzers in Razdolovka,” the spokesman said.” 

The Russian approach is a meat grinder for opposition! And you wonder why people are starting to ask why they do not hear from loved ones fighting? The reality is they are dying in vast numbers daily and Zelensky is covering this up. At some point even his thugs will not prevent eager hands to rip them apart. As for the foreign meddlers they will not fare much better. This is only going to become truly ugly over the next several months and more than likely will widen in scope. At some point the Russians will see the removal of wheat as a weapon against their interests and they will sink all barges and cut all rail traffic consistent with wheat removal and it is likely that Ukraine will see a what is a partisan movement spring up against the incumbent regime and foreign meddlers and what remains of the military forces

.

END

Ukraine War: Klitschko brothers warn ‘this war could destabilise Europe’ – YouTube

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:50 AM (1 minute ago)
to

The bombshell admission from the mayor was the fact that the Ukrainians have 5 nuclear planes, which are armed with nuclear bombs. He stated that one plane was destroyed, which leaves 4 planes with nuclear weapons on board. If those nukes are used in an act of desperation against Russia, the Russians will without a doubt, retaliate with a nuclear missile. .if this is true and not balderdash from these corrupt thugs, they could well cause Russia to go nuclear. As it is, if Putin is ousted, there are very loud voices in the Kremlin that want nuke Kiev to send a clear message to NATO about Russia’s willingness to go all in, if threatened further. This is beyond stupid and deadly putting the lives of millions at direct risk … and showing that these thugs care less about Ukrainians or Europeans as both are expendable for money. The sooner the West realizes just how corrupt the leadership is in the Ukraine, the sooner the doomsday clock can be turned back. And life can start to recover in the West to rebuild from this madness. Having a proxy who would engage in such insanity is beyond crazy and very foolish.

END

Give this some thought because the shape and form taking place will change western relationships with Asian countries and will not be disclosed as it reflects a diminished west in real time.

Inbox

Robert Hryniak11:30 AM (51 minutes ago)
to

“HUMANITY IS NO LONGER MEASURABLE IN EUROPE AND THE WEST.
NOW WE WAIT FOR THE DRAGON TO SPREAD HIS WINGS FOR THE TREASURES OF TAIWAN THEN THE EAST WILL BE COVERED WITH THE PLAQUE OF CHOOSING SIDES.  NO CHOICE IS NOT AN OPTION AS EITHER SIDE WILL BULLY THEM TO THE GROUND.  IF CHINA MOVES THE RIGHT COUNTER MOVE COMES FROM A GROUP LEAD BY INDIA. NOT AMERICA.”

The significance of this opinion is that it comes from deep behind the curtain in Asia. If we assume this is a real thinking of power players in Asia. We can assume that America has lost both ongoing respect and the moral high ground of leadership in Asia. And countries like Canada simply lack leadership creditability to have any impact or voice. This has already been voiced by India’s Ambassador to Canada. Canada may well see a reversal of immigration back to India in the future.  People from India make up the largest population within Canada and not the Chinese. This is far more significant than people recognize, with long-term consequences for both trade and Asian hegemony, which will be at the expense of the  WEST, who will find itself locked out of trade. This clearly is  a realization of true reality between India and China and Russia‘s interests in both parties. Why? The reality is that in  any confrontation between India and China, Russia will and must remain neutral as it has deep relationships with both parties and vested interest  in seeing both parties prosper. And not one party prospering at the expense of the other as both are needed to replace trade and commerce with the west. Russia also has made certain moves in Asia in other countries that clearly denote decoupling from the west with trade replacing Western markets from Asia. There is also a move by related parties to increase bilateral country currency settlements for this new trade activity. Thereby bypassing the need for SWIFT and CIPS as it already evident that steps taken now, take into account potential realities AND PITFALLS in the future.

END

Alexandria S. 🤍 on Twitter: “WEF Klaus Schwab: Let’s be clear the future is not just happening the future is built by us, a powerful community here in this room. We have the means to impose the state of the world https://t.co/E11PAxzSHk” / Twitter

Inbox

Robert Hryniak12:54 PM (1 minute ago)
to

The man is delusional, the non west led by Russia, China and India beg to differ.

end

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE/

New report proves again that Sweden has always been correct

Miller/Substack 

A New WHO COVID Report Once Again Proves Sweden Right

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Ian Miller via ‘Unmasked’ Substack,

Throughout the pandemic, Sweden has faced an enormous amount of criticism and international pressure due to their willingness to stick to established public health principles and pre-pandemic planning.

Instead of following the incessant, anti-science groupthink that became part of a virus-induced political religion, Sweden chose instead to not impose the strict lockdowns that Dr. Fauci recently claimed were not tried in the US.

Sweden never mandated masks be worn in indoor public spaces, correctly identifying the lack of evidence supporting their use.

They kept schools open in defiance of teacher’s unions and politically motivated “experts” in the United States who advocated for a policy with zero benefits and tremendous harms.

Essentially, Sweden followed the actual science and not The Science™, with the requisite trademark and capital letters. That would include the guides that were prepared prior to the panic, inaccurate modeling, political motivations and crisis obsession took over.

Even last year it became readily apparent that no one in the media or public health establishment was willing to discuss the inarguable reality that Sweden’s results were no worse than many countries across the globe — and significantly better than many, many others.

In general, comparisons have been mainly focused on COVID specific outcomes, but now the World Health Organization, fresh off demanding authoritarian powers over sovereign nations whenever they deem necessary, has released a new report on their estimates of excess mortality.

Excess mortality is simply the number of deaths above the expected rate in a given country in a specific time frame.

Excess mortality captures all of the outcomes in a country — it’s not limited to COVID related metrics or any other specific cause.

For that reason it can often be a better indicator of the true cost of the pandemic, whether that be COVID mortality or the consequences of lockdowns, hospital policy or mental health breakdowns.

The WHO report contains many illuminating statistics from the first two years of the pandemic which illustrate that Sweden’s approach was undoubtedly the correct one; once again contradicting the expert derived “consensus” that advocates for endless restrictions on normal life.

Sweden’s relative success is easily visible when comparing thirty European countries in estimated excess mortality rate per 100,000:

Sweden ranks 25th out of the 30 countries.

24 countries had a higher excess mortality rate per 100,000.

In summary, Sweden, the country that eschewed strict lockdowns, had some of the lowest mask usage anywhere on earth, kept schools open and society functioning as much as possible, and had one of the lowest rates of overall mortality of any country in their region.

While a single graph or chart may not necessarily disprove pro-mandate arguments, this one comes remarkably close.

If lockdowns, masks and other restrictions were as important as experts and politicians preach that they are, these results should not be possible.

Countries like Germany, Portugal and the Czech Republic were all praised for having “science based” responses with strict lockdowns, and extremely high rates of mask compliance.

Portugal’s vaccine success

Germany’s “Master class in science communication”

The Czech Republic’s “Lifesaving lesson to wear masks”

Sweden vastly outperformed each of them.

But let’s dive in a bit deeper.

One of the more common refrains from mask advocates is that US states such as New York, New Jersey and others have poor cumulative results because they weren’t aware early on that masks “work,” so their policies were adjusted and spread was successfully reversed by mask mandates and other restrictions after the first wave.

However, Sweden shows the exact opposite.

Restrictions in Sweden for the entirety of 2020 and 2021 were consistently among the least authoritarian and invasive when compared to other western countries.

Once again, if mask mandates, lockdowns and strict vaccine based policies were so important and effective, we’d expect the outcomes in 2021 to be worse in Sweden, as most of the world experienced increased spread with more transmissible variants.

Instead we see the exact opposite:

Black bars indicate the 2020 rate in each country, while the orange bars are the 2021 rates.

In many European countries, excess mortality became significantly worse in 2021 despite the arrival of vaccines, the ingrained evidence-free belief in masks and widespread discriminatory vaccine passport policies. Sweden had the exact opposite results, with significantly lower rates in 2021 despite their “lax” rules.

Comparing the 2021 numbers exclusively also highlights Sweden’s success:

Although the determination of pro-mandate fanatics to exclusively compare Sweden to other Scandinavian countries is nonsensical, the 2021 excess mortality rates show Sweden with lower numbers than both Finland and Denmark.

Their numbers were also lower than a number of other countries that imposed mask mandates and strict vaccine passports like Ireland, Portugal and Greece.

Revisiting the overall chart from 2020-2021, it’s important to highlight several other countries that had much stricter rules than Sweden:

France, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Spain and Italy all had lockdowns, varying levels of vaccine discrimination, mask mandates and strict entry requirements.

All fared worse than Sweden.

The lockdown and mask apologists simply offered no explanation for this.

Oh sure, there are excuses and misdirections, but no actual explanations.

Yes, Sweden had higher cumulative rates than the other Scandinavian countries, but viewing them in context shows how similar they actually were, outside of Norway, which was essentially a global exception.

Norway, however, had significant rates of spread in late 2021 that would not be counted until the 2022 data is in.

In general, the Scandinavian countries were more lax than most of continental Europe regardless.

More importantly, the broader context of Europe shows how successful Sweden’s policies actually were.

Here are several notable countries and how much higher than excess mortality rates were from 2020-2021:

  • Czech Republic 229%
  • United States 163%
  • Italy 147%
  • Spain 106%
  • United Kingdom 100%
  • Germany 96%
  • Portugal 71%
  • Greece 63%
  • Netherlands 57%
  • Belgium 35%

All of these countries had much harsher restrictions than Sweden with significantly worse results.

No matter how hard they try, every available piece of data and evidence continues to contradict the assertions made by incompetent experts desperate to protect their disgraced reputations and future grants.

Masks, lockdowns and strict discrimination at nearly every indoor business were all proven to be completely ineffective, both at reducing infections and overall mortality.

Sweden’s willingness to follow science and not The Science™ meant that they limited the negative impacts of COVID while avoiding higher numbers of deaths from other lockdown-derived consequences.

The vast majority of mainstream media outlets have no interest in covering these results because it contradicts the policies they’ve strongly advocated for and consistently promoted.

CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times and many other mainstream left wing publications did their best to ensure that corporations, politicians, teacher’s unions and other decision makers had the cover to enforce seemingly endless mandates.

Disturbingly, toddlers are still masked in New York City, which appears to be heading back towards mask mandates and vaccine passports (now with boosters!).

School districts across the United States have already decided to mandate masks due to a slight increase in cases.

These policies will now be an endless, reoccurring threat in anti-science areas like Chicago, San Francisco and Los Angeles.

All based on the lie that masks work. A lie that Sweden helps expose.

*  *  *

Get a 7-day free-trial to ‘Unmasked’ Substack

‘Unmasked: The Global Failure of COVID Mask Mandates’ is now on sale at Amazon and available in hardcover format for the first time

end

Vitamin D is essential!

Robert Hryniak9:25 AM (19 minutes ago)
to

Everyone should consider taking vitamin D3 along with K2 With MK7 for vascular health .. 





https://m.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/covid-19-is-treatable-and-preventable-with-vitamin-d-dr-robert-malone_4484667.html

COVID-19 Is Treatable and Preventable With Vitamin D: Dr. Robert Malone

Dr. Robert Malone in Washington on June 29, 2021. (Zhen Wang/The Epoch Times)

COVID-19 can be treated and prevented with vitamin D, according to the pioneer of mRNA vaccine technology and president of the Global COVID Summit, Dr. Robert Malone.

“There are virtually no deaths from this disease in people who have vitamin D levels in their blood above 50 ng/mL [nanograms per milliliter],” Malone said on EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders” program. “There’s actually many studies out now, including double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trials.”

A 2021 meta-analysis study published in the peer-reviewed journal Nutrients found that there was “strong evidence that low D3 is a predictor rather than just a side effect of the [COVID-19] infection” and suggested a serum vitamin D level “above 50 ng/mL to prevent or mitigate new outbreaks due to escape mutations or decreasing antibody activity.”

Malone explains that 50 nanograms per milliliter of vitamin D “seems to be the threshold where there’s a big change in mortality” according to the data he and other front-line doctors have looked at.

“Fifty [ng/mL] seems to be the cutoff where the curve goes from one to another, and when you get above that, it appears that virtually there is no mortality from COVID-19,” Malone said.<img class=”size-full wp-image-2184262″ src=”https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2016/11/10/DVitamin.jpg” alt=”Epoch Times Photo” width=”5400″ height=”3600″ /> A container of Vitamin D capsules. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

Other studies have shown that vitamin D has important functions beyond just bone health, which include regulating immune function and inflammation.

As early as 2010, a randomized, double-blind, controlled trial from Japan examining the impact of vitamin D supplementation on the occurrence of seasonal influenza A in children aged 6 to 15 between December 2008 and March 2009, “showed a significant preventative effect against influenza A.”

“Influenza A occurred in 18 of 167 (10.8%) of children in the vitamin D3 group compared with 31 of 167 (18.6%) children in the placebo group,” the authors wrote. “In children with a previous diagnosis of asthma, asthma attacks as a secondary outcome occurred in 2 children receiving vitamin D3 compared with 12 children receiving placebo.”

The participants received 1,200 international units of vitamin D3 daily, with no serious adverse effects, or a placebo.

With COVID-19, the fat-soluble vitamin or hormone has been found to prevent the disease, and reduce mortality and admission to the intensive care unit. People deficient in vitamin D were also found to be 14 times more likely to have severe or critical COVID-19, according to an Israeli study.

Regardless of the growing evidence of the effectiveness of vitamin D, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) does not recommend it for COVID-19 because they claim there is not enough data.

“There is insufficient evidence to recommend either for or against the use of vitamin D for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19,” the federal medical research agency wrote, citing only a small Brazilian study that found no significant difference in the length of hospital stay between the vitamin D group and the placebo.

About 240 hospitalized patients with moderate or severe COVID-19 were given either a single large dose of 200,000 international units of vitamin D or a placebo. Researchers said that their findings did “not support the use of a high dose of vitamin D3 for treatment of moderate to severe COVID-19.”

The NIH did mention that the study had several limitations due to its small sample size, enrollment of “participants with a variety of comorbidities and concomitant medications,” and the “time between symptom onset and randomization was relatively long, with patients randomized at a mean of 10.3 days after symptom onset.”

The NIH has not updated its recommendation since April 21, 2021, and did not respond to The Epoch Times’ inquiry on whether it will make an update as more trials have been published.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has also not issued guidance to encourage vitamin D intake. In its “how to protect yourself & others” webpage, the CDC only recommends getting the COVD-19 injections, wearing a well-fitted mask, staying six feet away from others, and testing, among other things.

Discovery of Vitamin D for Influenza

<img class=”size-full wp-image-4209856″ src=”https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2022/01/13/caroline-attwood-bpPTlXWTOvg-unsplash.jpg” alt=”Epoch Times Photo” width=”5472″ height=”3648″ /> In addition to sunlight, you can also get vitamin D from various foods including certain fish and mushrooms. (Caroline Attwood/Unsplash)

Vitamin D’s positive impact on the immune system, particularly in terms of infection prevention, was first discovered in 2006, according to Malone.

“I had a call out of the blue from a physician, an older retired physician who was an Army doc, he used to work for the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences … has intelligence community ties, and he was a long-standing DoD [U.S. Department of Defense] researcher in the area of respiratory disease, particularly influenza,” Malone said.

He added, “To the DoD, they have not forgotten about H1N1 in 1918 because there’s a strong case to be made, it was actually the soldiers coming back from the trenches that brought that virus with them into North America. So the morbidity and mortality associated with influenza is near and dear to the DoD’s heart and has been for decades.”

Malone said that the DoD researcher was involved in a study in the mid-2000s (pdf), analyzing the morbidity and mortality records from the “Department of Defense’s health system for warfighters” to determine what cofactors differentiated those debilitated by influenza from those who simply shrugged it off and continued to function.

“What he discovered was clear, statistically rigorous proof that vitamin D levels explain those differences,” Malone said, adding that the researcher was told by his superiors to present the data to Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Fauci, appointed as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) in 1984, is in charge of coordinating research to prevent, diagnose, and treat infectious diseases, immune-related ailments, and allergies.

“The story he tells me is that he was assigned to go visit Dr. Fauci and he met with Dr. Fauci, presenting the data thinking he’s going to get a: ‘job well-done soldier, this is important information, we’re going to invest all kinds of money and promote vitamin D based on your exceptional work and findings of your team,’” Malone said.

“Instead, what he got told by Tony Fauci, per his relating the story to me, was the phrase, ‘we don’t use drugs to treat influenza, we treat influenza with vaccines only.’ And with that, it died.”

Fauci did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment by press time.<img class=”size-full wp-image-4460655″ src=”https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2022/05/11/anthony-fauci-2.jpg” alt=”Epoch Times Photo” width=”5287″ height=”3525″ /> Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, speaks in Washington on May 11, 2022. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Throughout the pandemic, Fauci’s message on how to prevent COVID-19 has for the most part been in line with the CDC’s guidelines. But on Sept. 9, 2020, he recommended vitamin D and C for immune health during an Instagram live interview with actress Jennifer Garner.

“So, if a child is deficient, there are two vitamins among the many … for example, if you are deficient in vitamin D, that does have an impact on your susceptibility to infection. So I would not mind recommending and I do it myself, taking vitamin D supplement,” Fauci said in response to a question on what mothers could do to boost their children’s immune systems. He also recommended giving vitamin C supplements as “it is a good antioxidant.”

Fauci would also share in an email several days later of the “6,000 international units [of vitamin D] per day” he was taking to Kari Hjelt, the head of innovation at Graphene Flagship. Hjelt then forwarded his email exchange with Fauci to John Campbell, a retired nurse educator, who shared it on his YouTube channel.

According to Malone, vitamin D “at sufficient levels, is necessary to support the health, particularly of your T-cell population.” T-cells have two basic functions: they coordinate the immune response and kill virus-infected cells.

Researchers from Denmark knew in 2010 that vitamin D was essential for activating our immune system defenses, and without it, the immune system’s killer T-cells would not be able to react to and fight off serious diseases in the body.

“When a T-cell is exposed to a foreign parthogen, it extends a signaling device or ‘antenna’ known as a vitamin D receptor, with which it searches for vitamin D,” Dr. Carsten Geisler, professor at the Department of International Health, Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Copenhagen, said in a press release.

“This means that the T-cell must have vitamin D or activation of the cell will cease. If the T-cells cannot find enough vitamin D in the blood, they won’t even begin to mobilize,” he added.

Vitamin D deficiency affects over 1 billion people worldwide, including 42 percent of Americans, with darker complexion having a higher risk of vitamin D deficiency: 82 percent of blacks and 69 percent of Latinos have inadequate levels.

Malone says it is important that people don’t self-administer vitamin D before talking to their doctor and getting a simple blood test to measure the levels of vitamin D in their blood.

“It is important to get your blood levels tested,” Malone said. “You can get toxic from too much vitamin D and different people absorb vitamin D at different levels.”

Vitamin D toxicity, a rare condition, causes an accumulation of calcium in your blood and may cause symptoms that include nausea, vomiting, loss of appetite, weakness, and high blood pressure. Kidney failure may later occur if calcium is deposited in the organs. Treatment involves stopping the supplements and giving intravenous fluids and certain drugs.

Similar to Malone, Dr. Dennis Walker, a radiologist, says that people taking vitamin D supplements should get their vitamin D levels checked six to eight weeks after beginning the supplement, adding that “for every 5,000 IU of D3 consider 100 mcg of K2” as vitamin K2 “helps to ensure calcium transported by the vitamin D is absorbed by bones rather than deposited in arteries.”

Biden Seeks New Unilateral Powers For WHO Chief To Declare Public Health Emergencies

D EADLY!!

FRIDAY, MAY 20, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times,

President Joe Biden’s administration is pushing amendments to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) governing regulations to give Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus unilateral authority to declare a public health emergency in any nation based on whatever evidence he chooses.

The proposed U.S. amendments were forwarded to the WHO in January for consideration next week by the UN’s 75th World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland.

In a Jan. 26 letter to a virtual meeting of WHO’s executive board, Loyce Pace, Assistant Secretary for Global Affairs of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) described “the importance of equity and equitable access to medical countermeasures and the negative impacts of misinformation and disinformation related to the pandemic. We agree that we must all do better.

“The United States led an inclusive and transparent process to develop this decision, as we are mindful that updating and modernizing the IHR [International Health Regulations] are critical to ensuring the world is better prepared for and can respond to, the next pandemic.”

Among the proposed U.S. amendments, one removes an existing requirement in Section 9 that WHO “consult with and seek to obtain verification” from officials in a nation in which a health crisis is suspected before making any public declarations. The same amendment provides that “WHO may take into account reports from sources other than notifications or consultations” from the nation with the suspected problem.

A proposed change to Section 5 would direct WHO to establish “early warning criteria for assessing and progressively updating the national, regional, or global risk posed by an event of unknown causes or sources.”

A proposed amendment to Section 10 requires that the WHO, in the event the nation with the suspected problem doesn’t cooperate within 48 hours, shall “when justified by the magnitude of the public health risk, immediately share with other [nations] the information available to it.”

Nowhere do the amendments or accompanying documents explain how or why U.S. public health officials believe the equity issue in health care would be addressed by giving Tedros the authority to declare a public health emergency on the basis of information provided by a source other than the affected nation.

A search of the White House Press Office website found only one veiled reference to the WHO amendments. That reference was in a Feb. 2 Fact Sheet issued by the White House saying the U.S. “will continue to advance health security and pandemic preparedness abroad, including through strengthening WHO, working with partners towards targeted IHR amendments.”

The proposed amendment Section 5 of the WHO regulations also appears to parallel the Biden administration’s reference in a fact sheet on its proposed 2023 federal budget that was issued in April.

That reference commits the Biden administration to support “global threat detection innovations through a globally connected network of public health surveillance systems that optimizes disease prevention and health promotion as we strengthen surveillance initiatives to provide necessary actionable data before, during, and after a pandemic.”

“The budget includes $2.47 billion in mandatory funding for CDC to include enhancements to domestic sentinel surveillance programs, expansion of domestic and global wastewater surveillance, and investments in global genomic surveillance approaches, as well as global respiratory disease surveillance platforms,” the fact sheet states.

Respiratory surveillance platforms include video cameras and recorders that alert authorities when members of the public are seen coughing or otherwise acting in a manner that could indicate the presence of an infectious disease or help spread one already present in a population. Such equipment is widely used in China.

The Biden WHO amendments are the latest step in the current president’s efforts to reintegrate the U.S. with WHO after his predecessor, President Donald Trump, slashed U.S. funding to the international health organization and then gave notice of U.S. withdrawal.

One of Biden’s first acts as president was to withdraw Trump’s withdrawal notice and to restore U.S. funding, which accounts for half of WHO’s budget. Trump’s dissatisfaction with WHO stemmed from what he saw as the international health organization’s excessive deference to China regarding the origin of the CCP virus, which causes COVID-19.

A White House spokesman didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ request for information on the amendments and the administration’s rationale for the proposals. An HHS spokesman also didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.

Critics of the amendments such as Dr. Peter Breggin, however, have not been reluctant to comment on the proposed amendments.

“The amendments would give WHO the right to take important steps to collaborate with other nations and other organizations worldwide to deal with any nation’s alleged health crisis, even against its stated wishes,” Breggin said in a May 4 post under a byline shared with his wife, Ginger Ross Breggin.

“The power to declare health emergencies is a potential tool to shame, intimidate, and dominate nations. It can be used to justify ostracism and economic or financial actions against the targeted nation by other nations aligned with WHO or who wish to harm and control the accused nation,” Breggin wrote.

Peter Breggin is a Harvard-trained psychiatrist, former U.S. Public Health Service officer, and former National Institute on Mental Health (NIMH) consultant. Ginger Ross Breggin is a journalist, author, and medical reform advocate.

Travis Weber, vice president for policy and government affairs at the Washington, D.C.-based Family Research Council, told The Epoch Times that “the American people need to express concern with the White House, especially as our president representing us on the world stage—we need an explanation of what you are doing here and why.”

Weber said Biden administration officials have “not really talked about this, so we need reporters to ask them at a press conference what are they proposing and really get them to explain it. People can express their concern about that to the White House and express concern to their members of Congress, and we need Members of Congress to challenge the administration to explain themselves. Part one of this is: ‘What is going on, what are you proposing, and why.’”

Similarly, Mat Staver, founder and chairman of the Florida-based Liberty Counsel public interest law firm, told The Epoch Times that if the U.S. decided not to cooperate with WHO on a possible health emergency, and “say you had Trump back in office who wants to pull out, or you have somebody else who doesn’t want to deal with WHO, they could bring it before the International Court at the Hague for fines or some other form of restriction. They could coordinate with their other member nations to take actions with regards to supplies, sharing data or other documentation for trade, and who knows what the consequences of that would be.”

Liberty Counsel also pointed out in a statement on May 12 that a UN report claimed in May 2021 that the pandemic would have been avoided had the international health organization had greater authority.

That report also recommended that WHO be given “an adaptable incentive regime, [including] sanctions such as public reprimands, economic sanctions, or denial of benefits” to nations that don’t cooperate with it.

END

PAUL ALEXANDER…..

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Smallpox vaccine to prevent monkey pox could cause global small pox epidemics; I warn, do not be that stupid, understand you have damaged the immune systems of m (b)illions with COVID vaccines

Experts (idiots) are saying the smallpox vax 85% effective in monkey pox; this is NOT good news, for millions, billions are now immunocompromised due to COVID vax; smallpox vax can cause smallpox

Dr. Paul AlexanderMay 21

I warn, this is part to scare you to vaccinate your child with COVID vaccine and even small pox vaccine. Be warned. They, scientists, are saying good news, I am saying not good news if you went thinking you morons that you can vaccinate people for monkey pox with the small pox vaccine.

Slow your roll on this one, the same players are involved, hysterical and the same complicit media! Slow your roll!

Yes, it is true that persons under 40 years old do not have the smallpox vaccine, yet the real issue is the catastrophic outcome should we vaccinate millions and millions with smallpox vaccine who have subverted immune systems now due the the sub-optimal non-sterilizing COVID vaccine. I warn, by taking people who have compromised immunity as are COVID vaccinated persons (e.g. increased risk of infection and are getting infected post vaccine), and as such immunocompromised, and you give them the smallpox vaccine for monkey pox prevention, you could create devastation. The smallpox vaccine is known to be very ruthless (causing smallpox itself) in immunocompromised persons. I just described COVID vaccinated persons. Immunocompromised. The smallpox vaccine can potentially then drive massive outbreaks of smallpox in COVID vaccinated persons, including young people and children. This is at present a theoretical risk, but can become a reality if how I explained it above is so.

Study this carefully, think properly. Take your time. Slow your roll! Look at the sheer disasters we have made in COVID responding and the vaccines. At present, there is no cause for concern based on what is being reported. We should look at the transmission in men-who-have-sex-with-men, as there are reports of heightened cases. This needs investigation before this can be declared as credible.

SOURCE:

Good news: Smallpox vaccine 85% effective in preventing monkeypox

“Animal-to-human transmission can happen as a result of direct contact with the blood, bodily fluids, or cutaneous or mucosal lesions of infected animals…

Secondary or human-to-human transmission can happen through close contact with respiratory secretions, skin lesions of an infected person or recently contaminated objects…

Transmission via droplet respiratory particles usually requires prolonged face-to-face contact, putting health workers, family members and other close contacts of infected people at greater risk…

On Monday, the WHO signaled that some of the cases confirmed recently in Britain surfaced among gay men…

Although the current cluster of cases is in men who have sex with men, it is probably too early to make conclusions about the mode of transmission or assume that sexual activity was necessary for transmission, unless we have clear epidemiological data and analysis,” Michael Skinner, a virology specialist from London’s Imperial College, told Science Media centre(SMC) website…

The World Health Organization however says human-to-human transmission is limited.

Symptoms in humans of monkeypox include lesions, eruptions on the face, palms or soles, scabs, fever, muscle ache and chills…

Most people recover within several weeks and monkeypox has only been fatal in rare cases…

It is usually a self-limited disease with symptoms lasting from two to four weeks.”

GLOBAL ISSUES/SUPPLY CHAINS

end

VACCINE IMPACT

Has Russia Already Won? Is it “Game Over” for the Rockefeller Empire?

May 20, 2022 4:28 pm

Sam Parker, writing for Behind the News Network, has just published the second part of a two-part article titled “Russia/Putin & the West” which is, by far, the best analysis on the current Ukraine conflict and world events I have read so far, as he puts it into historical context, and obviously draws upon intelligence sources that completely contradict what comes out of the western corporate media. Sam Parker obviously has access to very high-level intelligence, and “Sam Parker” is probably a pen name, so any searches you conduct to learn his identity will probably fail. The dominant views today, even in the alternative media, follow the “Right” vs. “Left” paradigms assuming that politicians are in control of national and world affairs. If this reflects your views, that your particular political philosophy is superior to the other side’s, or that the United States has some kind of moral superiority over other nations, then this is NOT the article for you. Similar to my own understanding, Behind the News Network works from the presupposition that things don’t “just happen” in the world, but they are planned, and the ones doing the planning and calling the shots are not politicians, but rich billionaires who control the world’s finances. The politicians work for them. In the West, two “Jewish” families have dominated the financial empires in recent times, the Rothschilds in Europe, and the Rockefellers in the U.S. I consider the writings from Sam Parker very good, and very solid journalism, which is incredibly rare today. After reading what he exposes, you will be hard pressed to guess where his own loyalties and beliefs lie, and that is the way it should be with honest journalism. I assume that most of the readers of Health Impact News are pro-America, and pro-Nationalism. To be a “patriot” is considered a “good” thing. I have explained in previous writings why I believe this is idolatry, and that a true believer in Jesus Christ will have no other allegiances besides one’s allegiance to Christ, and the Kingdom of God. Everything else in this world is part of the domain of Satan and the kingdom of darkness, and that includes the United States of America, along with Corporate Christianity. Sam Parker covers things you will not find in the corporate media, and much of it not even in the alternative media, giving the historical perspective that may challenge your own understanding about Russia and why they are acting the way they are today. If most of what he writes here is true, Russia would seem to have the upper hand right now, at least in terms of military strength, and this is something that affects everyone who reads this. From the perspective of Sam Parker, the West is on the decline, while Russia has been steadily rebuilding its military since the end of the Cold War. He comes to the conclusion that it is basically “game over” for the West, as they cannot compete with Russia’s revamped weapons systems. “There is nothing in the U.S. arsenal now and in the foreseeable future which can intercept Mach 9-10+, let alone M20-27, targets. That’s the issue. It is indeed set, match and game over for the Empire: there is no more military option against Russia.” This will take some time to read and digest, but it is worth it, as I am not aware of any other sources where you will read this.

Read More…


“This Bill Promoted Internet Censorship And Violations of The 1st Amendment”: Rep. Massie Lone Vote Against ‘Anti-Semitism’ Bill

May 20, 2022 5:52 pm

The House on Wednesday voted 420-1 in favor of a bill that “promoted internet censorship and violations of the First Amendment” in the name of “combatting anti-Semitism.” Republican Kentucky Rep Thomas Massie was the lone vote against the bill. “I don’t hate anyone based on his or her ethnicity or religion. Legitimate government exists, in part, to punish those who commit unprovoked violence against others, but government can’t legislate thought,” Massie said Thursday after getting attacked by the media. “This bill promoted internet censorship and violations of the 1st amendment.”

Read More…

END

Vaccine Impact


China Ecommerce Giant Unveils Apps to Track “Green” Social Credit Scores to Monitor All Aspects of Your Life at World Economic ForumMay 24, 2022 6:32 pmAt the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland earlier today, Alibaba Holdings President J. Michael Evans unveiled their plans to launch an app that could track an individual user’s “carbon footprint.” “We’re developing, through technology, an ability for consumers to measure their own carbon footprint. What does that mean? That’s where are they travelling, how are they travelling, what are they eating, what are they consuming on our platform. So: An individual carbon footprint tracker.” As Kit Knightly reports at Off-Guardian, this is HUGE news as Alibaba is the second largest ecommerce company in the world, second only to Amazon.com, with revenues in excess of 715 billion Yuan in 2021 (that’s over 110 billion USD). And they’re not just an e-commerce platform. Through their financial and technological service companies, Alibaba runs the largest domain name market, email provider and cloud storage services in China, and the largest payment platform in the world. Through Alihealth they supply online pharmacy services, as well as providing computer technology to hospitals and clinics. Since they bought AutoNavi in 2014, they own the biggest e-map navigation company in China too. Essentially, in China if you want to pay for something on the internet, you probably use Alibaba. If you want to order something online from a small business, you probably use Alibaba. If you want to sell your stuff second hand, you probably use Alibaba. If you want to register a domain, go to a pharmacy, check into a hospital, send an email, use a map or GPS…you get the idea. How long before Alibaba decides to “reward” other “correct choices” that have nothing to do with the environment? Like vaccination, for example. How long after that do they start punishing incorrect choices? They already technically have access to the data they would need to construct this system. It would be naïve in the extreme to not see where this leads. And, of course, it won’t just be China. If Alibaba is doing this then Google, Amazon, Apple and all the rest of them won’t be far behind.Read More…

Michael Every//

Rabobank: Michael Burry Warns That The Economy Looks Like A House Of Cards… And He Is Right

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 10:08 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

House of Cards

The data that got some heads, and markets, turning yesterday was US new home sales, which slumped 16.6% m-o-m and 26.9% y-o-y to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 in April, the lowest level since April 2020. Economists had expected a figure of 748,000. Yes, this is always a very choppy series, but the drop was widespread: -5.9% in the Northeast, -15.1% in the Midwest, -19.8% in the South, and -13.8% in the West.

That’s synchronicity which takes me back to a conversation I had with a Russian-American in mid-2006 when working at another bank, who explained why the US housing market was so vast that it was mathematically impossible for all homes to ever do anything –bad!– at the same time, and so US mortgage-backed securities were the safest of investments. I kept up a rictus grin, as at that time I had been writing for years about a looming US housing crash, the Western replay of Asia’s 1997 crisis, which the traders around me were disinterested in hearing about: they had brought the guy in to explain how to profit from MBS sales.

Relatedly, today has seen Michael Burry, of ‘The Big Short’ fame, tweet: ‘As I said about 2008, it is like watching a plane crash. It hurts, it is not fun, and I’m not smiling.’ Once again I agree with him.

Of course, there was no sign of a property slump in the April sales report – quite the opposite. Prices soared yet again, reaching a median of $450,600 vs. $435,000 in the prior month. That is 3.6% m-o-m, which is 43% y-o-y if you annualized(!) That is a trend that has been going on for some time: according to First American’s chief economist, in April 2021, 25% of new-home sales were priced below $300,000, but in April 2022, only 10% of new home sales were. This is part of ‘the strong economy’ the Fed keeps talking about, which is very 1997/2008 redux – as is their inability to understand what is actually going on (again). Let’s see what their minutes say much later today.

However, we are certainly not seeing the same supply and price surge as before the last US housing crash. Inventory of homes for sale rose to 9 from 6.9 months on the back of that April sales fall, but there is not anywhere near the same scale of construction being seen as before the last crash. Lessons have been learned on that front, perhaps.

Regardless, this does not mean good things for home buyers. Business Insider quotes a TD Bank survey of more than 1,000 hopeful buyers which found 29% were uncertain whether now was a good time to purchase a home, with affordability (67%) and down-payments (46%) the biggest concerns. Only 36% of this year’s prospective homebuyers believed now was a good time to buy vs. 59% in 2021 and 68% in 2020. Likewise, the 30-year US fixed-rate mortgage jumped above 5% in April for the first time since February 2011, and averaged 5.25% in the week ending May 19.

So, the logical economist forecast must be that prices have to come down – right? Except they can’t.

There is massive supply-side inflation in almost everything involved in building a home, and outright limits on availability of some items regardless of price. That trend is not reversing any time soon and could get worse depending on energy prices and Chinese lock downs. Meanwhile, all those would-be home buyers have to rent. That pushes up rents, which are by definition rent-seeking; and that pushes up US inflation because of how the CPI basket is calculated.

So, the next logical economist forecast must be that interest rates have to come down – right? Except they can’t either.

If they do, they will try to shift the demand curve to the right just as the supply curve remains shifted to the left, with inflation already far too high. Crucially, the ceiling for rates may be far lower than 7.5%, 8.3%, or 10% y-o-y headline inflation suggests should be the case because of the demand side; but the floor for where rates will go is also far higher because of the supply side. If one is presuming rates can fall far and fast, then the implied collapse in demand is so bad one should be making those calls from a bunker – which, full disclosure, is not something I am opposed to in principle. I think Burry would concur.

Moreover, as I keep repeating, governments will not just sit there and do nothing: but their actions will shift supply curves to the left, and demand curves to the right.

On the demand side, will Australia’s new government do what every other one has done, and try to shoehorn people into unaffordable houses – perhaps with another cash giveaway from all taxpayers, including renters, directly to home buyers (which actually means home sellers)?

On the demand side, China just agreed to buy Brazilian corn for the first time; hooray for Brazil, and welcome to higher corn prices for former buyers of that crop if China does what it usually does and stocks up aggressively (for whatever political or geopolitical reason).

On the supply side, India just banned the export of sugar following the same on wheat, complicating global agri trading even more, and helping to push up prices elsewhere. There is likely to be much more of this to come all over – high prices now create incentives to hoard, not export, inverting usual economic logic.

On the supply side, US shale firms are using profits to pay down debt or buy back shares rather than drill, baby, drill because of the White House’s aversion to fossil fuels. The Saudis insist on keeping Russia as a member of OPEC+ and are refusing their role as swing producer for the US in time of need (though talks over the Straits of Tiran and President Biden killing off the Iran Deal by refusing to delist the IRGC as terrorists might indicate a belated diplomatic pivot by the States). Anyway, a supply-side lack of refineries is a pressing structural problem there is simply no short or medium-term solution to.

On the demand side, the EU *may* be closer to a Russian oil embargo – although it is unclear if Hungary declaring a state of emergency overnight, allowing PM Orban to rule by decree, is a sign that this is closer or much, much further away, and/or if the EU is in trouble.

Yes, the real-world impact of this is simply shattering on demand. UK consumers, already facing surging energy bills, have just been told the cap on what they can pay is to rise again this autumn, with expectations the average household bill could hit a staggering £2,800, up another £800, pushing millions more into fuel poverty. Totally unrelated to fresh images of PM Johnson quaffing alcohol at lockdown parties in No 10 Downing Street, the UK Chancellor is expected to introduce a windfall tax on energy companies and energy subsidies for households as soon as tomorrow. That is welcome – but means higher inflation, not only in the short term, but in terms of the shift in psychology towards expectations of such interventions.

As someone who has lived in emerging markets and their crashes for years, not just the 2008 western one, the simple message is that there are times when demand collapses and interest rates have to be high anyway. (The RBNZ meet today, and the market suspects we will see another 50bp hike.) There are also times when the government steps in and makes things better,… and times when it steps in and makes things worse.

One can have recession, high inflation, a weak currency, and high interest rates all at the same time. One can see stocks collapse and bonds yield massively negative real returns, and cash lose its value due to inflation. And crypto do a ‘Luna’. And gold do nothing versus the US dollar.

In such times, think not of pyramid schemes, but of Maslow’s pyramid. Which is what commodity hoarders and subsidizing governments are doing.

Meanwhile, along similar lines, as China and Russia carry out joint air-force patrols, George “Emmanuel Goldstein” Soros, looking even more like a walnut than Henry “Give Russia and China all of the things” Kissinger, warns Davos of the risks of ‘World War Three’ on one stage…  as New York Stock Exchange executives boast of how many more Chinese firms they expect to list there in the future on another. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The BBC carries another explosive expose on China’s alleged treatment of its Uighur minority just as the UN human rights chief Bachelet visits Xinjiang, prompting the US to lash out… at the UN.

The Quad, meeting yesterday, initiated further measures to address Indo-Pacific economic security, including joint action to track illegal Chinese fishing, as China’s diplomats are on a whistle-stop tour through Pacific nations to see which of them might like a shiny new air or naval base.

As flagged, US Trade Representative Tai also pointed out after the Biden tariffs hullabaloo that it was in the US interest to be “strategic” over removing tariffs – even if it sounds like she was lobbying her own government. Relatedly, we get US Secretary of State Blinken speaking on US China policy tomorrow, with early suggestions there will be no new developments – which is already seeing Congress lobby their own government for more hawkish action.

None of these developments ease global tensions, suggest a rapid move back to ‘normal’ economics and lower inflation, or a true return to the pre-Covid market ‘new normal’, even if we get awful economic data. They collectively look a lot like ‘House of Cards’. Just as much as the economy, as Burry implies.

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

end

7. OIL ISSUES//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA

 

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

ARGENTINA//FRIDAY

Argentina’s inflation problems increases

(Raines/Young Money)

Argentina’s Inflation Problem

FRIDAY, MAY 20, 2022 – 07:40 PM

Authored by Jack Raines via Young Money,

This article is based on a combination of my own experiences in Argentina and my subsequent research after I came back to the US. I know some of my readers are from Argentina, and others are probably much more knowledgeable than me on this topic. If I’m dead wrong about something, or if you have a good personal anecdote, let me know. I would love to learn more about my favorite South American nation.

What Inflation?

In March 2022, the US CPI reading showed an 8.5% year-over-year inflation print, the highest since 1981. Pretty rough, right? Well in March 2022, Argentina recorded a 6.7% month-over-month inflation print. The country’s year-over-year print was 55.1%.

Argentine bank accounts pay 45% interest on deposits, which sounds great if the value of your currency isn’t getting cut in half every year. Used cars, a depreciating asset in most of the world, are investments that retain value better than the national currency in Argentina.

Trust in the government is minimal at best, and the ultra-wealthy store their capital in international bank accounts. 

What does everyone else do? Hoard dollars. When you are dealing with 50% inflation every year, 8% inflation is a dream come true. Those that have enough money to save extra cash exchange their pesos for dollars as quickly as possible, as the dollar is the best inflation hedge they have.

These dollars aren’t stored in bank accounts. They’re kept in safes, under mattresses, and anywhere else that the government can’t touch them.

The constant exchanging of pesos for dollars has created a vicious cycle: an already weak currency continues to lose value as consumers dump it as quickly as possible.

Two years ago, the Argentine government sought to stop this flight to dollars by instituting a $200 peso-dollar monthly exchange limit, but this rule simply expanded the black market for dollars.

Argentina now has two currency exchange rates:

  • The quoted rate
  • The informal rate

The quoted rate, which sits around 100 pesos per dollar right now, is what any bank will pay you for your dollars. However, demand for dollars is so high that the unofficial exchange rate trades at a 100% premium: 200 pesos per dollar. Because inflation is so rampant, the local population will pay double the market price to get their hands on dollars.

If you are an American tourist, it’s a great deal. Bring a few thousand bucks and you can live like a king. If you are a local Argentine, this exchange is born out of desperation. Without access to dollars, your purchasing power will quickly diminish.

So how did we get here?

What Went Wrong

Argentina is a unique case study in economic development, because as recently as 80 years ago it was poised to rival the US in global influence. During the first three decades of the 20th century, the South American nation outgrew both Canada and Australia in population, total income, and per capita income. In fact, in 1913 Argentina was the 10th wealthiest country per capita. (For perspective, Argentina was 89th in 2020, and the United States was 10th).

Yet the rest of the world has largely flourished since the end of World War II, while Argentina has floundered. What went wrong?

In the 1940s, it seemed like the South American nation would be a superpower for the rest of the 20th century. Argentina was one of the world’s leading agriculture exporters, the country was industrializing quickly, and unlike war-torn Europe, it had remained relatively stable since gaining its independence. Italians, Spaniards, and other Europeans immigrated to Argentina by the millions, seeking opportunity in a new land. Buenos Aires was becoming the New York of the southern hemisphere.

However, in 1946 Juan Perón came to power, setting in motion 75 years of decline and stagnation. On a global scale, the first four decades of the 20th century were filled with war and economic depression. As a result, Perón implemented a series of import substitution policies, such as high tariffs, to make the country less dependent on international markets.

However, the timing couldn’t have been worse, as the post-WW2 era brought us an explosion of international trade. Consumers around the world benefited from cheap imports, while businesses had access to exponentially larger customer bases. Argentina missed the bus.

 While the goal was to make Argentina an independent nation, the reality was a blossoming world power exited international markets before the biggest expansion of global trade in history.

The consequences of protectionism cannot be overstated. Argentina was previously an agriculture superpower, but protectionist policies forced the country to divert resources away from its strongest sector to increase industrial production. Domestic production couldn’t compete with the lower prices of international goods, and consumers suffered.

Peronist economic policy didn’t stop here. Rent and price controls were pervasive, with the government going as far as setting menu price limits for restaurants.

Government spending exploded as companies across a variety of sectors were nationalized, and Perón distorted property rights and the freedom to contract.

Heavy government spending, widespread nationalization, and minimal international trade were a recipe for disaster.

Peronist policies stifled economic growth, locked Argentina out of international markets, sowed seeds of distrust, destroyed their currency, and created a 70+ year cycle of hyperinflation and economic stagnation.

Perón was overthrown after a decade in power, but Argentina’s fate had been sealed. 

Over the next 50 years, governing power shifted hands several times through coups and “elections,” the nation repeatedly defaulted on its debts and changed currencies, and inflation wreaked havoc on the purchasing power of local consumers.

Perspective

8% inflation sucks. Inept government policies suck. But our problems in the US are minute compared to elsewhere in the world. The reality is that we live in a country with a stable currency, a stable government, and unlimited opportunities. 

In the US, we are worried about whether the market is going to maintain its 9% annual returns. In Argentina, they worry about whether or not their currency will exist tomorrow. Americans invest in stocks, bonds, index funds, and real estate. Argentines hoard dollars under their mattresses and buy used vehicles as investments to fight hyperinflation.

The craziest part about this whole thing? There is an alternative timeline where Argentina rivals the US in global influence in 2022.

Just a few generations ago, Argentina was poised to be the world power of the southern hemisphere. The peso was as stable as the US dollar and British pound, Buenos Aires was one of the world’s premier cities, and immigrants moved to the nation by the millions in search of opportunity.

However, a single decade of government incompetence led to generations of decline.

Despite the issues that we do have in the US, we won the lottery of opportunity by being born here. We don’t have to worry about our dollars being worthless or our government being overthrown by a coup. Had a few events in history been different, we could be looking at a different reality right now.

Life in the US isn’t perfect, but it’s important to have a little perspective about this stuff. If our biggest problem is 8% inflation, are our problems really all that big?

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0648 DOWN 0.00084 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL MIXED

USA/ YEN 126.96   UP 0.263 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2490 DOWN   0.0051

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 36.54 POINTS UP 1,19%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 59.19 PTS OR 0.29%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.24%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL  MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 59.19 PTS OR 0.29%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 36.54 PTS UP 1.19% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.25% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 76.34 OR 0.26%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1855.60

silver:$21.80

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 102.43  UP 56  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.10%  DOWN 8  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.207% DOWN 3    AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.06%// DOWN 2   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.9  UP 10   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.951.%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0645 DOWN 0.0068    or 68 basis points

USA/Japan: 127.22 UP 0484  OR YEN DOWN  48  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2537 DOWN 0.0040 OR 40  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0019 OR 19 BASIS pts  to 1.2842

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.6924  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.7111

TURKISH LIRA:  16.40  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.217

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  2.742% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   2.955 DOWN 2 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 102.23 UP 37   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 47.65 PTS OR 0.64%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 56.20  POINTS OR 0.90%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 56.20 PTS OR 0.90% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 133.00 OR 1.44%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 402.68 PTS OR  1.69%

WTI Oil price 109.95   12: EST

Brent Oil:  113.54   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  59.49  DOWN 2 & 69/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.951

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0689 DOWN   .0044   OR  DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2583 UP .0042  or  42 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 127.27 up 0.535//YEN down 54 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2840 down .0014 (CDN dollar UP 14 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 110.75

Brent OIL:  114.33

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.743 DOWN 2 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.967  DOWN 1  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 16,32

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE:  59.33 DOWN  2 AND 5/0199/ ROUBLES (ROUBLE down 2.53/100 ROUBLES/USA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 191.66 PTS OR 0.60%

NASDAQ 100 UP 174.09 PTS OR 1.48%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 28.37 UP1.08 PTS (3.67%)

GLD: 173.08 DOWN 1.05 PTS OR 0.60%

SLV/ 20.34 DOWN 05 PTS OR .25%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Soar After Dismal Macro Data, Hawkish Fed Minutes

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Another day, another disappointing US macro data point (durable goods orders printed less than expectations)…

Source: Bloomberg

Other than April 2020 – when the entire economy was closed – May’s serial disappointment in US Macro data is the worst since Lehman

No new news is good news for stocks as The Fed Minutes – which are as hawkish as they have been at any time in the last 30 years

Source: Bloomberg

…provided no ‘death blow’ for markets and prompted an immediate rip higher in stocks. Some late-day weakness/profit-taking hit the market, but all the majors ended green with Small Caps led the day along with Nasdaq…

NOTE: as we detailed here, The Fed let slip some signals of when it might halt hiking and we suspect this meltup was supported by that also.

…and correspondingly short-end yields dropped along with higher stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

“Most Shorted” stocks were squeezed perfectly up to unchanged for the week, and from yesterday’s opening puke…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were lower in yield across the curve today but only very modestly, led by the belly (5Y -2.5bps) which again supports the early Fed fold thesis…

Source: Bloomberg

A 50bps hike is a done deal for June, but odds are fading modestly for July and tumbling for September…

Is this why?

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NlbnNpdGl2ZV9tZWRpYV9pbnRlcnN0aXRpYWxfMTM5NjMiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiaW50ZXJzdGl0aWFsIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9yZXN1bHRfbWlncmF0aW9uXzEzOTc5Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InR3ZWV0X3Jlc3VsdCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1528799582724972544&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fstocks-soar-hawkish-fed-minutes-dismal-data&sessionId=ac5e09f26fd5ad8215345d7be92f918cb25ce58c&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

The dollar managed gains today after 3 straight down. After the Minutes, the dollar started to pare gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin managed modest gains on the day (though was unable to hold $30k) shrugging off Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd’s flip-flop from a target price of $400,000 to $8,000 (not a typo)

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was spanked back to Monday’s lows early  as the dollar rallied but bounced back after the Fed Minutes

Oil managed modest gains today, reversing a drop after DOE data showed a modest drop in gasoline demand and a distillate stock build…

US NatGas roundtripped on the day top end marginally higher after soaring above $9 for the first time since 2008…

Notably, US NatGas (front month futs) has converged in price (on an oil barrel equivalent basis) with EU NatGas (day-ahead)…

That’s the price Americans pay for ‘democracy’ in a country 5700 miles away.

Finally, it appears the market continues to lose faith in The Fed’s inflation-fighting bona fides and has pulled the terminal-rate lower and sooner in recent days…

Source: Bloomberg

Let’s hope the market is not disappointed when Powell and his pals jawbone that sentiment away… or, as we noted earlier, did The Fed just signal when rates will peak? …three more 50bps hike and then the Fed pauses… indefinitely, its next move a cut as the economic recession emerges from hiding.

I) / EARLY AFERNOON TRADING/

FOMC//RESULTS//

FOMC Minutes Signal Fed Ready To Hike Above ‘Neutral’, Backs Multiple 50bps Hikes

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 02:05 PM

Tl;dr: Bloomberg’s ‘Sentiment of the Minutes Indicator’ suggests the minutes were just as hawkish as the last set, remaining nearly as hawkish as the Fed has tended to be the last 30 years

*  *  *

Since the FOMC Statement and press conference on May 4th, a lot has changed…making the Minutes for that meeting somewhat ‘meh’.

In the three weeks since The Fed hiked rates and laid out its path for QT, US Macro data has serially disappointed at an almost unprecedented pace… led by ‘housing’, ‘labor’, and ‘survey’ data

Bonds, gold, and the dollar are all marginally changed since Powell’s presser (albeit amid notable volatility), but stocks have been clubbed like a baby seal as reality of recession or a Fed with no ‘put’ sunk in…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, while financial conditions have tightened dramatically in recent months (to historically tightest levels of the last decade), since May4th, they have gone nowhere…

Source: Bloomberg

The odds of 50bps in June remains flat since the FOMC but the odds of 50bps in July has fallen notably in the last few days as stocks collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

And once again the market’s collapse appears to have triggered hope for a Fed ‘pause’ (which we discussed as unlikely any time soon here)…

Source: Bloomberg

So, the market is watching today’s Minutes very closely for signs of that ‘pause’, for any hints on how the Fed could inject dovishness while staying the course regarding normalisation, perhaps by signaling a lower terminal rate… but bear in mind that all the carnage in stocks and macro data has occurred AFTER these Minutes.

Here’s what The Fed wanted you to take away from that meeting on May 3rd/4th…

ECONOMY

  • All Fed participants agreed US economy was ‘very strong/ labor market was extremely tight’ and inflation was very high
  • Fed participants saw Ukraine conflict China COVID lockdowns posing heightened risks.’ with particular challenges to restoring price stability while maintaining strong job market
  • Participants said Q1 22 GDP decline contained ‘little signal about subsequent growth.’ and they expected real GDP would grow ‘solidly’ in 02 and be near or above trend for the whole year.

INFLATION

  • A few participants added that some of their contacts were starling to report that higher prices were hurting sales.
  • Fed participants emphasized that they were highly attentive to inflation risks and agreed those risks were skewed to the upside.
  • These participants also emphasized that price pressures remained elevated and that it was too early to be confident that inflation had peaked
  • A number of participants observed that recent monthly data might suggest that overall price pressures may no longer be worsening

BALANCE SHEET

  • All participants supported plans to reduce size of Fed’s balance sheet:
  • A number’ said after runoff was well under way. it would be appropriate to consider sales of MBS.

RATES

  • Most Fed officials backed 50bps hikes at next couple meetings.
  • All participants at May policy meeting agreed half-percentage-point interest rate hike was appropriate
  • ‘Most’ judged such hikes appropriate at the next couple of meetings, regarding 50bps.

ECONOMY

  • All Fed participants agreed US economy was ‘very strong/ labor market was extremely tight’ and inflation was very high
  • Fed participants saw Ukraine conflict China COVID lockdowns posing heightened risks.’ with particular challenges to restoring price stability while maintaining strong job market
  • Participants said Q1 22 GDP decline contained ‘little signal about subsequent growth.’ and they expected real GDP would grow ‘solidly’ in 02 and be near or above trend for the whole year.

HOUSING

  • Residential house prices had risen rapidly, although the staff continued to see key differences from the previous debt-fueled housing boom: The mortgage finance reforms enacted after 2008 limited the potential for significant deterioration in underwriting standards, most new mortgage debt had been added by borrowers with prime credit scores, and homeowners’ equity positions were healthy.”

DEMAND DESTRUCTION

  • Most participants indicated that their business contacts had continued to report that substantial increases in wages and input prices were being passed through into higher prices to their customers.
  • A few participants added that some of their contacts were starting to report that higher prices were hurting sales.
  • But a number of participants observed that recent monthly data might suggest that overall price pressures may no longer be worsening

FINANCIAL STABILITY

  • Several participants who commented on issues related to financial stability noted that the tightening of monetary policy could interact with vulnerabilities related to the liquidity of markets for Treasury securities and to the private sector’s intermediation capacity.
  • A couple of participants pointed to increased risks in financial markets linked to commodities following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which had led to higher prices and volatility across a wide range of energy, agricultural, and metal products.
  • These participants observed that the trading and risk-management practices of some key participants in commodities markets were not fully visible to regulatory authorities and noted that central counterparties (CCPs) needed to remain capable of managing risks associated with heightened volatility or that margin requirements at CCPs could give rise to significant liquidity demands for large banks, broker-dealers, and their clients.

*  *  *

Read the full FOMC Minutes below:

SEE ZEROHEDGE

II)USA data

USA durables goods orders disappoint in April

(zerohedge)

US Durable Goods Orders Disappoint In April

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 08:37 AM

Amid a slew of dismal US macro data, analysts expected durable goods orders to continue to rise in preliminary April data and it did but less than expected. US Durable Goods Orders rose 0.4% MoM, less than the +0.6% MoM expected and a notable slowdown from March’s +1.1% MoM (which was also revised down to a 0.6% MoM rise). Orders remain up 9.9% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Ex-Autos were even worse, with orders rising just 0.3% MoM (below the +0.6% MoM expectation).

The value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, climbed 0.3% (less than the +0.5% MoM expectation) after a 1.1% gain a month earlier.

Shipments were better than expected, up 0.8% MoM as the supply chain bottlenecks catch up.

As Bloomberg notes, the figures suggest companies are adhering to capital expenditures plans as they seek to enhance productivity to ease the burden of high inflation and a tight labor market. It’s less clear, however, whether businesses later this year will reconsider the current pace of investment in the face of higher interest rates and an anticipated cooling of economic activity.

Another missed US macro data point though.

END

USA natural gas prices top $9.00//hit 2008 highs///futures/over stop at one dollar highs. $10/$9

US NatGas Prices Top $9, Hit 2008 Highs As EU ‘Convergence’ Accelerates

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 08:15 AM

U.S. natural gas futures hit highs not seen since 2008 amid EU export demand, serious concerns of a sweltering summer, and the possibility stockpiles might not be refilled ahead of the heating season. 

Futures for June delivery were up over 2%, topping $9…

…for the first time since August 2008

Prices for this time of year have never been higher except for 2008. 

One driver of soaring prices is supply tightness. Weather forecasters predict a summer of heatwaves that could force households and businesses to crank up their air conditioners. There’s also the concern about power grid strains where hydroelectricity and coal supplies are limited, which will increase the use of natgas power generation. 

A surge in natgas demand this summer could result in the inability of U.S. stockpiles to replenish ahead of the heating season. 

“It isn’t about winter demand outlooks — it’s about summer refill outlooks,” Gary Cunningham, a director at Tradition Energy, told Bloomberg. 

Another sign of market tightness is seen as July futures trade at a premium over next February futures, the first time in nearly two decades. 

There’s also concern natgas production is not rising fast enough to meet growing demand: 

“In the last month, there has not been a meaningful uptick in U.S. lower 48 states production.

“You’re seeing exports running full out on LNG; power burn from the power sector is really strong and layer in the heat we’re seeing and the expectation that the southern tier of the continent in May and June will see well above normal temperatures. That’s a recipe for higher prices,” Matt Palmer, senior director North American natural gas at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told CNBC. 

As US LNG demand soars to cover Europe’s shortfall, higher US prices have resulted in the compressing of E.U.-U.S. natgas spread (1mo ahead vs futs). 

And in fact, US NatGas futures are now trading at a premium to Day-Ahead EU NatGas prices for the first time in more than one year. 

We suspect by summer, Americans who favored exporting natgas to Europe would regret their decision due to high electricity bills.

And how will the Biden administration fix this problem? Can’t keep blaming Putin.

END

Middle class is shutting down yet spending by the rich continues to remain robust

(zerohedge)

US Middle Class Is Shutting Down As Spending By The Rich Remains Robust

WEDNESDAY, MAY 25, 2022 – 07:45 AM

After dismal earnings by such mammoth retailers as Walmart, Targets and this morning’s “horror report” by Abercrombie and Fitch, on Tuesday afternoon we actually got a solid report by Nordstrom, which not only printed strong earnings but also hiked guidance sending the stock higher as much as 12%.

What was behind the divergence? Simple: as JPMorgan writes in its trading desk market recap, JWN earnings highlighted the divergence among consumer spending by income brackets.

Picking up on this, Bloomberg’s Felice Maranz writes that the latest earnings and comments from big-bank executives reinforce the view that while spending by lower and middle America may be falling off a cliff, spending by well-off US consumers is still robust, with scant sign of a pull-back.

Bloomberg also points to department store Nordstrom which is jumping after the bell after boosting its revenue and earnings outlook. The company, unlike so many of its peers who have seen their stocks crater following Q1 earnings, said core categories in 1Q — including men’s and women’s apparel and shoes – saw strong growth with shoppers “refreshing” wardrobes for social events, travel and going back to offices.

And since the wealthy are far less impacted by rising prices in the core staples basket, there were no signs of a hit from inflation either, as merchandise margins for the likes of Nordstromg improved due to pricing and lower markdowns. That followed an earlier beat from that other upper/aspirational-class targeting retailer, Ralph Lauren, which was also able to raise prices, helped by resilient, affluent customers, as well as from electronics retailer Best Buy.

Meanwhile over in Davos, BofA CEO Brian Moynihan said US consumers (at least the rich ones) have money to spend and were unlikely be deterred by inflation and economic gloom. That’s similar to JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon’s reassuring remarks on Monday.

The price of a new home – also a type of a luxury good – rose in April as well as prices surged while transactions tumbled as the middle (and lower) class is increasingly shut out of home purchases…

…. with the bulk of buying taking place at the ultra high end as seen by the record divergence between average and median home prices…

… though as Bloomberg warns, there are questions about how long that divergence can continue as inflation and higher mortgage rates squeeze all American households.

END

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

END.

iii)a.  USA economic stories

iii b USA//inflation stories/log jams etc/GAS

END

iv)swamp stories

Mook testifies that Hillary Clinton personally approved Trump to Trump Russia disinformation and thus threw her under the bus

(zerohedge)

Mook Testifies That Hillary Clinton Personally Approved Trump-Russia Disinformation To Media

Former Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook dropped a bombshell in court on Friday – testifying that Hillary Clinton approved the dissemination of allegations that then-candidate Donald Trump had a covert communications channel with a Russian bank, despite campaign officials not being “totally confident” in the rumor, according to Fox News.

Mook, who was called to the stand by the defense team for former Clinton lawyer Michael Sussmann, was asked under cross-examination about the campaign’s understanding of the allegations against Trump, and whether the campaign planned to release it to the media.

He told prosecutor Andrew DeFillippis that he was first briefed by campaign general counsel Marc Elias, who was a partner with Perkins Coie at the time, adding that he was told the data had come from “people that had expertise in this sort of matter.”

Mook said the campaign was not totally confident in the legitimacy of the data, but had hoped to give the information to a reporter who could further “run it down” to determine if it was “accurate” or “substantive.”

He also said he discussed whether to give the information to a reporter with senior campaign officials, including campaign chairman John Podesta, senior policy advisor, now White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and communications director Jennifer Palmieri. -Fox News

“I discussed it with Hillary as well,” said Mook, who added “I don’t remember the substance of the conversation, but notionally, the discussion was, hey, we have this and we want to share it with a reporter.”

When asked how Clinton responded, Mook said: “She agreed to that.

“A reporter could vet the information and then decide to print it,” he added.

And then of course, Hillary did this:

Of note, after previously denying the prosecutions request to include the tweet into evidence, he approved it on Friday.

Sussman has been charged with lying to the FBI when he told General Counsel James Baker in September 2016 – less than two months before the US election – that he wasn’t doing work “for any client” when he presented the Alfa Bank “purported data and ‘white papers’ that allegedly demonstrated a covert communicates channel” between the Trump organization and the Kremlin-linked Alfa Bank.

Special Counsel John Durham alleges that Sussman was in fact working for the Clinton Campaign and tech executive Rodney Joffe. He has pleaded not guilty.

end

end

The King Report (including swamp stories)

ECB’s Lagarde boosts euro as dollar nurses wounds – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said interest rates in the euro zone will likely be in positive territory by the end of the third quarter… that potentially means two rate rises over the course of the next 4 months…”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/safe-haven-dollar-bounces-aussie-slides-snapchat-sours-mood-2022-05-24/
 
ESM plunged after they opened on Monday night due to Snap’s dire forecast.  ESMs rallied 21 handles by 20:19 ET.  They then gently rolled over and steadily declined into the Chinese close at 2 ET.

New homes sales hit a two-year low, while prices soar nearly 20 percent https://trib.al/0ZKBKZs
 
@bespokeinvest: There have only been 5 other times since 1993 that SPY traded up more than 1% on a Monday but gapped down 1%+ on the following Tuesday.  https://t.co/GVktUNxcaw
 
Supply-chain managers are quitting in unprecedented numbers
Separation rate increased by 28% last year: LinkedIn
Burnout, search for higher pay spur people to leave jobs  https://t.co/qi9D0azONd
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Another afternoon and last-hour rally after an early morning tumble in the US
Bonds rallied sharply
 
Negative aspects of previous session
US stocks tumbled in the morning, led by Fangs and related trading sardines
A relatively insignificant

Biden on high gas prices: “We’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels” https://t.co/NQuF0Ik50w
 
@Doranimated: Biden says the quiet part out loud. He admits… that the left celebrates record-high gas prices, seeing them as a spur to “an incredible transition” of the US economy away from fossil fuels.
 
@AndrewLawton: On the World Economic Forum’s panel on a “Reimagined Global Tax System,” Oxfam executive director Gabriela Bucher calls for a global 25 per cent corporate tax rate and complains that countries are lowering taxes to be competitive.
https://twitter.com/AndrewLawton/status/1529004627798147072
 
@sophielouisecc: Day 2 in DAVOS, another day of grotesque hypocrisy.
Private jets and heli rides for the climate preachers.
Extreme privacy for those who want to increased surveillance.
Armed police to protect an organisation against gun control.
 
@AndrewLawton: I asked the World Economic Forum’s head of climate about the Davos meeting’s carbon footprint, and if the WEF asks attendees to not come by private jet.  She said she didn’t have time to answer.  https://twitter.com/AndrewLawton/status/1529118816802058242
 
@AndrewLawton: Speaking about small and medium businesses in Davos, Norwegian finance CEO Kjerstin Braathen says energy transition will create energy shortages and inflationary pressures, but this “pain” is “worth it.”  https://twitter.com/AndrewLawton/status/1528644596657422337
 
The elites at Davos proffered totalitarian measures to implement on the world’s little people.
@OldRowViral: “We need a re-calibration of human rights like freedom of speech.”
https://twitter.com/OldRowViral/status/1529112794959863809
 
@AndrewLawton: Alibaba Group president J. Michael Evans boasts at the World Economic Forum about the development of an “individual carbon footprint tracker” to monitor what you buy, what you eat, and where/how you travel.  https://twitter.com/AndrewLawton/status/1529045188764921856
 
@AndrewLawton: This is a hilarious self-own. On a Davos energy transition panel, the moderator asked World Economic Forum guests to raise their hands if they had an electric vehicleJUST FOUR of them did.  https://twitter.com/AndrewLawton/status/1529164260722454528
 
@bennyjohnson: Twitter has now suspended the user who Tweeted the clip of someone at the WEF saying “We need a re-calibration of human rights like freedom of speech.”
 
GOP Rep. @michaelgwaltz: My main questions regarding the baby formula crisis hearings in Congress this week: What was the FDA thinking when they shut down 40% of our nation’s supply and just walked away? Who made that decision?
 
Today – A Turnaround Tuesday to the downside occurred during early NYSE trading.  Thereafter, it was another episode of Force Stuff Higher to mitigate the negative impact of the morning tumble.

Biden’s public approval falls to 36%, lowest of his presidency – Reuters/Ipsos
The latest poll gathered responses from a total of 1,005 adults, including 456 Democrats and 358 Republicans… (36% approval in a poll that greatly oversampled Democrats!)
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens-public-approval-falls-36-lowest-his-presidency-reutersipsos-2022-05-24/
 
Forbes citing Gallup Poll: By the fourth quarter of 2021, 47% of respondents identified as Republicans while only 42% said they were Democrats…  https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/01/17/republicans-overtook-democrats-in-2021-as-share-of-americans-identifying-with-gop-shot-up-poll-finds/
 
83% of Americans believe U.S. has gone off the rails as midterm elections loom: poll https://trib.al/PMsD3Uh
 
How White House has been forced to walk back a Biden claim on Taiwan for the third time in NINE months – after President Joe Biden said the U.S. had a commitment to defend Taiwan…
https://t.co/xrN1v5FU2j
 
Biden to curb police supplies and create bad cop registry as violent crime spikes
President Biden is poised to sign orders curbing policing Wednesday to commemorate the two-year anniversary of George Floyd’s murder — despite the ongoing violent crime wave… https://trib.al/FqL6PoK
 
Fox’s @JakeBGibson: Revealed in Sussmann trial today: FBI Agent Curtis Heide is being investigated in FBI internal probe of Crossfire Hurricane. Heide confirmed that he is being investigated for withholding potentially exculpatory information in a FISA court application.
 
NSBA letter drafts called for National Guard and military to be deployed – NSBA letter to Biden, which called protesting parents ‘domestic terrorists,’ more extreme in its early stages
    Early demands from the National School Boards Association to the White House included calling for the deployment of the Army National Guard and the military police to monitor school board meetings, according to an early draft letter the organization’s independent review released Friday…
https://t.co/Nd0CsUWsNR
 
@RogerMarshallMD: 3 cases of monkey pox in the United States, and it gets more national media than fentanyl overdoses which are killing Americans at record rates.
 
Georgia sees record early voting turnout despite voter suppression claims
Undermining accusations leveled by President Biden and other critics that Republicans in Georgia suppressed votes through a controversial election reform law passed last year…
    Several companies, such as Delta and Patagonia, similarly lambasted the Georgia law as racist and anti-democratic. Major League Baseball moved its All-Star Game from Atlanta because of the law
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/georgia-sees-record-early-voting-turnout-despite-voter-suppression-claims
 
@RNCResearch: Democrat Stacey Abrams on Georgia’s skyrocketing turnout: “We know that increased turnout has nothing to do with suppression” (Does she equates suppression with stopping cheating?)
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1529119592294932480
 
Washington Post deletes tweet that George Floyd was ‘shot’ by police https://trib.al/yqplWnR
 
@MrAndyNgo: WaPo writes that George Floyd “was shot & killed in police custody.”  He was never shot. He died of cardiopulmonary arrest & official autopsy found nothing to “support a diagnosis of traumatic asphyxia or strangulation.” His blood had 11 ng/mL of fentanyl.
https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1528926438447009794
 
The MSM increasingly report their hopes and not reality.
 
Ex-DNI @RichardGrenell: Pennsylvania leaders need to fire everyone in charge of their elections.
(PA election officials still don’t know the results of the GOP Senatorial Primary on May 17)
 
ISIS affiliated suspect arrested for alleged plot to kill President Bush
A suspect affiliated with ISIS traveled to Dallas, Texas to record video around Bush’s home and recruited help from individuals he intended to smuggle into the United States across the southern border
https://www.foxnews.com/us/isis-suspect-arrested-for-plot-to-kill-former-president-bush
 
@USA_Anne711: (ex-CBS reporter) Sharyl Attkinsson testifies that the FBI were planning to ‘Plant child porn’ [evidence] on her husband’s computer. (Per federal official)
https://twitter.com/USA_Anne711/status/1528467266383368192
 
Girl, 15, is rescued from pedophiles ten days after she was abducted at basketball game when she left dad to use bathroom: Cops refused to help and daughter was only found after her nude pics were seen on prostitution website – The father raised the alarm after she left to use the restroom and didn’t return to her seat at a Dallas Maverick game in the American Airline Center on April 8
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10840151/Girl-15-rescued-pedophiles-ten-days-abducted-trafficked.html?s=02

By Greg Hunter On May 20, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups20 Comments interviewing Michael Yeadon//a must view

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 530 5.20.22)

CV19 Virus & Vax About Control Not Health – Dr. Michael Yeadon

By Greg Hunter On May 24, 2022 In Political Analysis51 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Dr. Michael Yeadon was a chief scientist in drug discovery research and also a VP at Pfizer for 20 years.  He has been sounding the alarm about the Covid “lies” being told and warning the so-called vaccines for CV19 are “neither safe or effective.”  Yeadon contends the entire Covid plandemic is just a piece of the puzzle in a much wider plan by “evil” globalists.  Yeadon contends, “Governments all around the world have lied to their people in the same set of absurd ways simultaneously.  So, it’s not a mistake. It’s not copycat because it’s so obviously stupid that if a neighboring country did it and you weren’t in on it, you would say I don’t want to do that, it’s literally absurd, and yet every country except Sweden did it. . . . Pretty much all the countries of the world did the same absurd things at the same time.  The reason why I have said this repeatedly is you will not get stronger evidence of ‘Super-National’ evidence behind the scenes.  There ain’t no way this happens by telepathy . . . They must have agreed to do this.”

When will the medical tyranny be over?  Dr. Yeadon says, “It’s never going to be over. . . . Why would they do this?  I think it’s to end the model of free humanity.  It’s literally going to do that.  It’s going to smash the currency, and that will bring an end to the economic system that has taken 300 or 400 years to build, and we don’t have a suitable replacement.  Let’s say the currency does not buy anything.  What will governments do?  Let them starve or ration the food that is remaining?  I think they will do the latter, and then they will need an ID system to make sure you don’t get two rations.  You see where this is going?  I think this was designed to end the world we just came out of.  The objective is control.  It’s not about money. . . . It’s not about to make a bit more loot out of our hides.  I am not saying some people have not made money.  Yes, they have, but is it the driving underlying motive?  I don’t think it is in any way, shape or form.  It’s control.  How would they get control?  I think ultimately by marking you with a vaccine, and you don’t need a vaccine.”

On the mRNA first-of-a-kind gene therapy vaccines, Dr. Yeadon, who was chief Pfizer scientist in drug discovery research, warns, “We have no mass market so-called gene-based vaccines.  They use DNA and messenger RNA to encode a piece of the virus, and then it hijacks your cells to become factories for a bit of the virus.  There is no precedent for that whatsoever.  It’s a hideous, dangerous thing.  Why?  I describe it like a little go-cart or racing cart.  The engine is running, and someone puts a big house brick on the throttle and then lets it go.  That’s like these gene-based vaccines.  There is no off switch!  Some people will make lots and lots of whatever it’s coding, which is the virus or spike protein.  They will make loads of it for ages. . . . none of the manufacturers were required to study how long their material would stay in the body. . . . So, when people rolled up their sleeve, my word, they were trusting.  I read the packages, and I said I am not going to have this stuff . . . When they say the CV19 vax is safe, I say you have no idea if it is safe.  You have literally not done the experiments.”

Dr. Yeadon also talks about Monkey Pox, more lies on future vaccines, mass murder and the fight we face, which Dr. Yeadon describes as, “It’s evil what has gone on, and I do think this is a diabolical push.”

There is much more in the in-depth 1 hour and 18 minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks to Dr. Michael Yeadon, former 20-year Pfizer VP, as he explains why the so-called CV19 vax is “dangerous,” “not effective” and is “being used for control,” not your health.

After the Interview:

Dr. Yeadon has written what he calls “The 12 Lies of Covid.”  Click here to read it for free 

See you Thursday

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One comment

  1. Hi Harvey,
    I guess that the projected absence of posts for “a week” was in terms of a week on Mercury. 8^)

    Seriously, your dedication is much appreciated, and I’m glad that circumstances allowed you to post (much) sooner.

    Like

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