JUNE 9/GOLD FINISHED DOWN $3.50 TODAY AT $1850.45//SILVER WAS DOWN 27 CENTS AT $21.80//PLATINUM DOWN $32.40 AT $978.90/PALLADIUM DOWN $19.75 AT $1932.65//ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP FOR COMEX GOLD AT 20900 OZ//NEW STANDING FOR GOLD 73.073 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE: 8,260,000 OZ//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES//EUROPEAN INTEREST RATES SKYROCKET TODAY WITH NEWS OF INTEREST RATES RISES AND END OF QE//UK GAS PRICES EXPLODE: HIGHEST IN 17 YEARS//EXPLOSION AT LNG REFINER CAUSES EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS TO EXPLODE HIGHER IN PRICE//UN CLAIMS IT WILL TAKE MONTHS TO DEMINE UKRAINIAN PORTS//USA JOBLESS CLAIMS SKYROCKET//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

JUNE 9 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1850.45 DOWN $3.50 

SILVER: $21.80 DOWN  $.27

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1848.00

SILVER: $21.68

Bitcoin morning price:  $30,370 UP 249

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $30,109  UP 12  

GOLD;  $1847.60 

Platinum price: closing DOWN $32.40 to $978.90

Palladium price; closing DOWN $19.25  at $1932.65

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX EXCHANGE:EXCHANGE: 

COMEX

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan: 1353/1845

CONTRACT: JUNE 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,851.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/08/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 06/10/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 333
104 C MIZUHO 600
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 25
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 112
323 C HSBC 50
323 H HSBC 173
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 22
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 36
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 21
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 63
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 600 1353
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 9
690 C ABN AMRO 8
700 C UBS 32
709 C BARCLAYS 192
709 H BARCLAYS 21
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 15
800 C MAREX SPEC 4 11
905 C ADM 2 6


TOTAL: 1,845 1,845
MONTH TO DATE: 21,825

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan:  

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT 1845  NOTICE(S) FOR 184,500 Oz//5.738  TONNES)

total notices so far: 21,825 contracts for 218,500 oz (67.884 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

23 NOTICE(S) FILED 115,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  1588  :  for 7,940,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 545.229 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED  1302 CONTRACTS TO 146,992   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND  THE LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.08 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.08) AND  ALSO SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SILVER LONGS AS THEY REMAIN FIRM IN THEIR BELIEF OF A SILVER FAILURE AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 1283 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A ZERO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 30 CONTRACTS OR 150,000 OZ//NEW STANDING:  8,260,000 / //  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -6

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 7 days, total 5,511,  contracts:  27.555 million oz  OR 3.936 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (787 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 27.555 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 27.555 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF  1302 DESPITE OUR SMALL  $0.08 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A ZERO  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 7.635 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 150,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING:8,260,000 OZ //  .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1296 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 6.480 MILLION  OZ WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 63  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  315,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A GOOD SIZED 3492 CONTRACTS  TO 497,622 AND CLOSER TO NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -XXX CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  GAIN IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $4.75//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //JUST SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR STUPID SPECULATORS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 69.26 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 20,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:  73.073 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $4.75 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 5077  OI CONTRACTS 15.79 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  1756 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 497,300

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5077, WITH 3492 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1756 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5077 CONTRACTS OR 15.79 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1756) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3170,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 5077 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE. AT 69.26 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE  JUMP OF 20,900 OZ//NEW STANDING: 73.073 TONNES /  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX  OI. GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

25,723 CONTRACTS OR 2,572,300 OZ OR 80.09  TONNES 7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3675 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 68.59 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  80.09/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.25% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 80.09 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1302 CONTRACT OI TO 146,992 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 0 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1302 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 0 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1302   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.510 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.08 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.84 PTS OR 0.76%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 145.54 PTS OR 0.66%    /The Nikkei closed UP 12.24 OR 0.04%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.45%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.6764    /Oil UP TO  122.04dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 123.61 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6765 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6819: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER/

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3,170 CONTRACTS TO 497,300 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $4.75 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1756 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ARE CAUGHT. THE COMMERCIALS WILL SLAUGHTER THESE GUYS WHEN THEY THINK THE TIME IS RIGHT

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1756 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :1756 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1756 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED  TOTAL OF 5077  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1756 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3170  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $4.75.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY   (73.073),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 73.073 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE 4.75) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS AS WELL AS SPECULATOR SHORTS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A GOOD SIZED GAIN  OF 16.323 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (73.073 TONNES)

WE HAD 171 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5077 CONTRACTS OR 507700  OZ OR 15.79 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 129,067/// poor

final gold volumes/yesterday  132,428  poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JUNE ’22 COMEX GOLD //JUNE 9

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz80,981.068 oz
Manfra
Brinks
JPMorgan
130 kilobars
2010 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz32,118.847OZ
Brinks
999 kilobars 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz32.151 oz
Brinks
one kilobar
No of oz served (contracts) today1845  notice(s)184,500 OZ5.738 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1668 contracts 166,800 oz5.188 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month21,825 notices2,182,500 OZ67.884TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  1

Brinks: 32,118.847 oz  999 kilobars

No dealer withdrawals

1 customer deposits

i) Into Brinks 32.151 oz (1 kilobar)

total deposits: 32.151 oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 12,178,300 

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  64,623.510 oz (2010 kilobars)

iii) Out of Manfra: 4179.258 oz (130 kilobars)

total withdrawal: 80,981.068  oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 0  

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.

For the front month of JUNE we have an  oi of 3513 contracts having LOST 771 contracts

We had 980 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED A HUGE 209  contracts

July has a GAIN OF 89 OI to stand at 2302

August has a LOSS of 1335 contracts DOWN to 419,699 contracts

We had 980 notice(s) filed today for  98,000 oz FOR THE JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  600 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1845 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  1363 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,825) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JUNE 3513  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 1845 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,349,300 OZ  OR 73.073 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of JUNE. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices filed so far (21,825) x 100 oz+   (3513)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1845} x 100 oz} which equals 2,328,000 oz standing OR 73.073 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JUNE.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  73.073 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A JUNE (  ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,331,163.529 oz   72.5 tonnes                          

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  34,717,379.200 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,753,348.887  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,964,030.333 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,632,867.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//JUNE 9

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,258,913.021  oz
Brinks
CNT
JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,733,315,931oz
CNT
Delaware
HSBC
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)23CONTRACT(S)115,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)64 contracts (320,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1588 contracts 7940,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i) zero dealer deposits  
And now for the wild silver comex results

total dealer deposits:  0     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 4 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT:  547,904.371 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan:  577,221.700

iii) Into Delaware: 20,514.360 oz

iv) Into HSBC:  587,625.500 oz

total deposit:  1,733,315.931    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 170.926 million oz/337.188 million =50.74% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of Brinks  30,273.900 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  1,138,692,800 oz

iii) Out of CNT  47,942.621 oz

total withdrawal  1,258,913.021       oz

0 adjustments: 

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 72.742 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 337.188 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI: 87 HAVING LOST 33 CONTRACTS. 

WE HAD 63 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 30 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 150,000 OZ WILL  STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE

DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 7666 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 85,781 CONTRACTS.

AUGUST GAINED 77 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 974

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 5877 CONTRACTS UP TO 45,374 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 23 for  115,000 oz

Comex volumes:58,840// est. volume today//   poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 72,441 contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1588 x 5,000 oz = 7,940,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(87) and the number of notices served upon today 23  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JUNE./2022 contract month: 1588 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (87)  – number of notices served upon today (23) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates 8,260,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.10: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.95//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

May 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.10/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP @$2.70: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.89./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1056.18 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.07 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.40:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.28 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.89 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD DOWN $16.25//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.8 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.82 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.99 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.62 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.65 TONNES

MAY 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.90 TONNES

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.98 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.00 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.95: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.98 TONNES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 \TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.20: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1094.55 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1065.39 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 558.071 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ///

MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.515 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20.WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHDRAWAL OF .785 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL  1.892 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 17/WITH SILVER UP $.22 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.508 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.546 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.593 MILLION OZ//

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ/

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

May 11/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.487 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

MAY 10.//WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .93 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .851 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.900 MILLION OZ

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.877 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 554,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.171 MILLION OZ//

INVENTORY TONIGHT RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ/

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

For your interest….

Newmont sells 3,500 ounces of gold to Ghana’s central bank under local purchasing plan

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-06-08 11:26Section: Daily Dispatches

By Cooper Inveen and Sofia Christensen
Reuters
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California 
Tuesday, June 7, 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-newmont-sells-3-500-181601073.html

ACCRA, Ghana — Newmont Mining’s Africa unit has sold 3,500 ounces of gold to the Bank of Ghana under a central bank domestic gold purchasing program launched in June 2021, the company said today.

The gold purchasing program aims to increase gold reserves and has spurred discussions with the Chamber or Mines about the Bank of Ghana’s intentions to purchase refined gold from mining companies in the country.

Newmont Africa said it was the first mining company to respond to the central bank’s initiative with a first sale of refined gold in May 2022.

Ghana’s central bank is seeking to raise the gold component of its reserves in a bid to strengthen the West African country’s local cedi currency without increasing inflation.

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //FERTILIZER OTHERS

END

END

END

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.6765

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.6819

HANG SANG CLOSED  DOWN 145.54 PTS OR 0.66% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 12.24% OR 0.04%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  102.32/Euro RISES TO 1.0734

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.243/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 133.84/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -SHORE CLOSED  UP//  OFF- SHORE UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +1.441%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.62% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.59%…ALL BLOWING UP!!

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.95

3j Gold at $1850.05 silver at: 21.96  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  1.30      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 58.11

3m oil into the 122 dollar handle for WTI and  123 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 133.84DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9771– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0486well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.033 UP 2  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.171 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.23

Futures Rise Ahead Of Hawkish ECB Meeting

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 07:45 AM

US index futures turned positive on Thursday, even as European stock slipped ahead of the ECB decision at 745am ET, with Nasdaq 100 contracts outperforming as oil prices and bond yields stabilized and strategists at Goldman and JPMorgan gave more bullish comments on equities. Sentiment was boosted after Bloomberg reported that China’s crackdown on internet companies may be easing with a revival of the Ant Group IPO, which boosted the country’s US-traded stocks (the news was since refuted by China, but moments later Reuters re-reported what Bloomberg said). S&P 500 futures traded 22 points or 0.5% higher, and Nasdaq 100 futs were 0.4% higher. The dollar slid, and 10Y rates were flat at 3.02%.

Markets remain fixated on the risk that central banks intent on cooling inflation snuff out economic recoveries in the process. Money markets have priced in 36.5 basis points of tightening to the ECB’s rate by next month’s meeting, just short of a 50% chance of a half-a-percentage point increase, which would be the first since 2000.

“To rein in surging prices the Fed has to increase rates, which can result in a recession,” Geir Lode, head of global equities at Federated Hermes, wrote in a note. “However, the pandemic-induced supply-chain shock and the Ukraine conflict are beyond the central bank’s control. In this environment we need to be lucky to avoid stagflation that could last for a long time.”

While the ECB isn’t expected to raise official borrowing costs, President Christine Lagarde signaled in a blog post last month that the central bank will end bond purchases this month, and hike once in July and again in September, lifting the deposit rate from minus 0.5% to zero. Some investors see a new tone reaching beyond the official line as central bankers succumb to huge pressure to rein in record inflation at more than four times their target of 2%. Peers at the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia have hiked in 50-basis point increments this year.

“Chances are that the ECB will have a hawkish pivot today,” Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said on Bloomberg Television.

In US premarket trading, Alibaba Group was among the best performers – at least initially – as it pumped, dumped and then rose again after several conflicting reports that Chinese regulators are considering a potential revival of the initial public offering by Jack Ma’s Ant Group.

Tesla gained 3% after an upgrade to Buy from UBS and after the company said its deliveries of cars made in China doubled in May compared with April and as UBS recommended buying the stock. Bank stocks also traded higher in premarket trading as the US 10-year Treasury yield hovered just above 3%. In corporate news, Credit Suisse shares dropped after its CEO Thomas Gottstein said he wouldn’t comment on State Street’s reported interest in the Swiss bank. Here are all the notable premarket movers:

  • Five Below (FIVE US) shares decline 7.3% in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year guidance, while analysts trimmed their targets for the stock, but were broadly positive on the firm’s longterm prospects.
  • Spotify (SPOT US) shares could be in focus today as analysts were positive on the streaming giant’s forecast that its podcasting business will turn profitable as the company focuses on more non-music segments like audiobooks.
  • Travel stocks could be active on Thursday following Expedia CEO Peter Kern’s bullish comments on summer travel. Keep an eye on Delta (DAL US), United (UAL US), Marriott (MAR US), Expedia (EXPE US), Airbnb (ABNB US) and Booking Holdings (BKNG US) among others
  • Watch Oxford Industries (OXM US) shares after the company reported results, as Citi says that there is no sign of consumer weakness in any part of the branded apparel retailer’s business.
  • Ollie’s Bargain (OLLI US) stock may be in focus as RBC Capital Markets upgraded the discount retailer to outperform, saying that despite another tough quarter, its fundamentals should improve in the back-half and beyond.

In Europe, equities slipped ahead of a European Central Bank decision that will put the region’s monetary policy on a path of tightening and help close the gap with global peers. Real-estate companies and retailers led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index 0.5% lower. EDF jumped the most in three months, after a newspaper report that the new French government is studying two options for the electricity giant’s nationalization, including a buyout offer. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • EDF shares rise as much as 8.3% after Les Echos newspaper reported that nationalization is among priorities for new government after this month’s legislative elections alongside combating inflation and pension reform.
  • Prosus gains as much as 7.4% in Amsterdam and Naspers gains as much as 6.8% in Johannesburg following a report that Chinese financial regulators are considering reviving the IPO of Jack Ma’s Ant Group.
  • Tate & Lyle advances as much as 4.4% after the company reported FY22 results that beat estimates. The FY23 outlook suggests upgrades to consensus estimates, according to Jefferies.
  • Beiersdorf rises as much as 7.8% after the company said in a Capital Markets Day presentation on its website that it targets above-market organic sales growth at its consumer unit in the medium term.
  • Credit Suisse drops as much as 4.9% after State Street declined to comment on a report that it was looking to acquire the Swiss bank. Separately, Bloomberg reported that Credit Suisse is tapping the brakes on its China expansion.
  • CMC Markets falls as much as 19% after cutting its dividend and saying it was boosting spending on new hires, product development and marketing as the firm seeks to diversify amid a fading retail trading boom.
  • Wizz Air drops as much as 8.3%, extending Wednesday’s 9.5% decline after the company gave guidance for an operating loss for the first quarter, while analysts also noted their concern about pricing trends.

Asian stocks slipped as technology and financial firms declined and higher oil prices stoked concerns about inflation.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%, trimming its gain this week. Chip stocks declined after a warning on demand from Intel Corp., with the Hang Seng Tech Index sliding more than 1%, a breather after its recent rally. Australian banks were among the biggest contributors to the regional benchmark’s loss.  “We are seeing profit-taking moves after Chinese stocks rose a lot in recent sessions,” said Xue Hua Cui, a China equity analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. “There are also renewed concerns about the second-quarter corporate earnings.” Australia’s broad benchmark was among the biggest decliners in Asia Pacific as bank stocks slumped on concerns about valuations and macroeconomic risks. Shares in Singapore and Malaysia also fell. South Korean equities erased early-day losses to close nearly flat on options expiry, while Japanese peers also finished little changed amid the yen’s extended weakness.  Read: Australian Bank Stocks Take $32 Billion Hit on Rate Concerns Stocks in much of the region held losses after data showed Chinese exports jumped more than expected in May, while a mini-lockdown weighed on market sentiment. Even with Thursday’s dip, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index remained on track for its fourth straight weekly gain, which would be its longest winning streak since early 2021

Japanese stocks traded in a narrow range as investors continued to worry about inflation and growth while the yen extended losses to a fresh 20-year low.  The Topix Index was virtually unchanged at 1,969.05 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 was stable at 28,246.53. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 937 rose and 1,105 fell, while 128 were unchanged.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.4% to close at 7,019.70, its lowest level since May 12. Banks contributed the most to the benchmark’s slump on growing concerns that faster monetary policy tightening might increase housing-market risks and pressure valuations.  Magellan was the top performer after saying co-founder Hamish Douglass will resume working with the business in a new consultancy role. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 11,211.31.

In India, stock gauges advanced for the first session in five, helped by a surge in Reliance Industries and energy companies on the improving outlook for refining margin and software exporters extending recovery.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.8% to 55,320.28 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index gained 0.7%. Both indexes are still headed for weekly drops of about 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively, their first decline in four weeks. “With policy rate announcements now behind us, investors lapped up stocks that were in a downward spiral for quite some time,” Kotak Securities analyst Shrikant Chouhan said in a note. The market may witness select bouts, but volatility is expected to remain over the near-to-medium term, he added.  Reliance Industries provided the biggest boost to the key gauges, increasing 2.7%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 21 rose and 9 fell

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed as the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. The euro fluctuated around $1.07. Bunds and Italian bonds swung between modest gains and losses. Options pricing in the euro and spot swings suggest not everyone is convinced that the euro will rally after the ECB meeting, which leaves ample room for an advance on a hawkish decision. The yen rebounded after touching a fresh two-decade low against the dollar and seven-year lows against the Australian dollar and the euro, as traders adjusted positions before the ECB. Speculators are gathering around the beleaguered yen and positioning is by no means extended, suggesting there’s still room for bears to pile in. The New Zealand dollar inched up and the nation’s 10-year yield hit a seven-year high after the RBNZ announced plans to offload QE bond holdings.

One beneficiary of a hawkish pivot by the ECB would be the euro. The common currency has been bogged down by concerns over euro-area growth while a resurgent dollar and hawkish Fed pushed it to a five-year low against the US currency last month. The euro traded little changed against the dollar at $1.07.
“If we do see Christine Lagarde leaning toward a 50 basis-points hike in July, that’s going to be very supportive of the euro-dollar,” Kong said.

In rates, Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the yield flatter ahead of ECB rate decision at 7:45am ET and 30-year bond reopening, the last of this week’s coupon auctions. 2-year TSY yields rose to 2.80%, highest level since May 4 YTD high. 10-year little changed at 3.02%, underperforming bunds while gilts trail. US front-end cheapening flattens 2s10s by ~1bp on the day toward lowest level since May 25; as previewed before, the ECB is expected to announce imminent end to large-scale asset purchases, opening the door for interest-rate hikes at the July meeting; swaps price in around 30bp of rate- hike premium. Looking at today’s auction we have a $19BN 30-year bond reopening which follows Wednesday’s mediocre 10-year, which tailed by 1.2bp. WI 30-year yield at ~3.16% is above auction stops since 2018 and ~16bp cheaper than May’s, which stopped 0.9bp through.

German bonds and the euro are steady ahead of the ECB’s meeting later Thursday, where traders will look for clues on whether the bank will raise rates by 25bps or 50bps in July. Money markets don’t expect a hike today, and currently bet on 36bps next month, and about 132bps by the end of the year. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany.  Both gilt and Treasury curves flatten. 

In commodities, WTI trades within Wednesday’s range around the $122 level. Most base metals trade in the red; LME nickel falls 2.9%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $3 to trade near $1,850/oz

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned ECB decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. We’ll also hear from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, and data releases today include the US weekly initial jobless claims.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,130.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 437.16
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 168.75
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 557.70
  • Nikkei little changed at 28,246.53
  • Topix little changed at 1,969.05
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 21,869.05
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,238.95
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 54,988.33
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 7,019.75
  • Kospi little changed at 2,625.44
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $123.07/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,848.12
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 102.62
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.35%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.0701

Top overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The ECB is set to announce an imminent end to large-scale asset purchases, paving the way for the first increase in interest rates in more than a decade next month
  • Traders are betting the BOE will deliver a historic half-point interest-rate hike by September to wrest control of inflation running at the fastest pace in four decades
  • Judging by the latest comments, the yen’s exchange rate still has some way to go before Japan’s finance ministry would consider intervention to prop up the currency via actual purchase operations, something it has avoided for more than two decades. With the US more likely to be against any moves to weaken the dollar, Japan faces the problem that actual intervention may not be effective
  • Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida appears to be counting on the Bank of Japan to keep borrowing costs near rock-bottom levels as his government paves the way for continued spending even after a record-breaking pandemic splurge and with the yen languishing at two-decade lows
  • Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Breman said all options are on the table for the June policy meeting as speculation grows over whether the Swedish central bank needs to speed up its interest rate increases
  • China’s exports rebounded in May as Covid-related bottlenecks on production and logistics clear up, but a slowdown looms this year as global consumer demand for goods cools, weakening trade’s ability to act as a driver for economic growth

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were subdued following a weak handover from the US and with sentiment cautious. ASX 200 was pressured by underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector and weakness in property-related stocks also suffering amid expectations of aggressive RBA rate hikes which increases banks’ funding costs and could threaten the quality of their loan portfolios. Nikkei 225 kept afloat as participants contemplated the ramifications of further currency depreciation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lacklustre despite the mostly better than expected Chinese trade data as some COVID concerns resurfaced in Shanghai with the city locking down the Minhang district on Saturday morning for mass COVID testing.

Asia headlines

  • Shanghai will lockdown the Minhang district on Saturday morning for mass COVID-19 testing, according to Bloomberg; additionally, Beijing’s Chaoyang district is to close all entertainment venues from 14:00 local time (07:00BST) for COVID containment.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said China is guilty of unfair trade practices but some tariffs on Chinese goods do not serve US strategic interests and the Biden administration is looking to reconfigure tariffs in a way that would be more strategic, according to Bloomberg.
  • Japan is planning to expand its prefectural travel subsidies across the entire country, according to Yomiuri.
  • RBNZ outlined plans to sell New Zealand government bonds from July 2022 in which it intends to offload NZD 5bln per fiscal year in order of maturity date until its LSAP holdings are reduced to zero, according to Reuters.

Equities are, overall, struggling for clear direction in relatively cautious trade going into ECB; Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%. Bourses, and US futures, were lifted amid further constructive China tech developments, this time for Ant Group; albeit, we have drifted modestly off best since, ES +0.3%. China is said to be mulling reviving Jack Ma’s Ant IPO, with reports framing it as an easing in crackdowns from China, according to Bloomberg sources. *Click here for analysis/reaction. China PCA Retail Passenger Vehicle Sales (May): -17.3% YY; Tesla (TSLA) 32.2k (prev. 33.5k YY). Walgreens Boots Alliance’s (WBA) Boots has received a non-binding bid from Apollo Global Management and Reliance Industries, according to FT sources.

European headlines

  • Hawkish Lagarde Is Not Fully Priced In the Euro: ECB Cheat Sheet
  • Traders Bet BOE Will Join Peers in Historic Half-Point Rate Hike
  • European Gas Soars as Fire in US Compounds Russia Supply Concern
  • Italy’s Eni to List Renewable Unit Plenitude in Milan
  • FirstGroup Rejects £1.2 Billion Takeover Bid From I Squared

FX

  • Yen finally finds some friends amidst less hostile yield environment and supportive risk backdrop; USD/JPY retreats just over 100 pips around 134.00 and EUR/JPY almost 150 pips from 144.00+ peak.
  • DXY remains anchored around 102.500 ahead of Friday’s US CPI data and as Euro pivots 1.0700 pre-ECB; EUR/USD flanked by decent option expiries as well from 1.0750-55 to 1.0605-00 on the downside.
  • Kiwi underpinned after RBNZ outlines schedule for balance sheet rundown; NZD/USD hovers near 0.6450, AUD/NZD sub-1.1150 with AUD/USD capped into 0.7200.
  • Rand continues bull run with extra incentive from wider than forecast SA current account surplus, USD/ZAR straddling 15.2500.
  • Lira rout resumes following fleeting respite on prospect of capital controls raised by S&P, USD/TRY above 17.2200.
  • Yuan retains bulk of Chinese trade data related gains even though parts of Beijing and Shanghai reimpose restrictive Covid measures; USD/CNH closer to 6.6700 than 6.7100, USD/CNY settles sub-6.7000 vs circa 6.7000 high.

Fixed Income

  • Bunds choppy and lagging Eurozone periphery within 149.17-148.52 range pre-ECB, as focus falls on fragmentation along with rate and QE guidance
  • Gilts underperforming between 114.86-42 parameters as BoE tightening expectations rise and drag Sonia strip down
  • US Treasuries flat-lining ahead of jobless claims and long bond supply, with 10 year T-note just above par inside tight 118-07/117-26+ band

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are steady after giving up overnight gains with participants cautious and cognizant of China’s fluid COVID situation.
  • Currently, the benchmarks are sub-USD 122/bbl and USD 123.50/bbl respectively, vs highs of 122.72 and 124.34.
  • Magnitude 5.6 earthquake hits the Antofagasta region in Chile, according to EMSC.
  • Spot gold is sub-USD1850/oz, having slipped below its falling 10-DMA but holding above the overlapping 200- & 21-DMAs at USD 1842/oz.

Central Banks

  • Riksbank’s Breman says she will support doing what is required to attain the inflation target, including more hikes than are currently in the path; adding, to control inflation back to target, need to act now. Does not exclude a 50bps hike at the next meeting.
  •  
  • Hungarian Finance Minister says the Hungary has issued FX bonds totalling USD 3bln and EUR 750mln; follows the NBH maintaining its one-week deposit rate at 6.75%.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: May Continuing Claims, est. 1.3m, prior 1.31m
  • 08:30: June Initial Jobless Claims, est. 206,000, prior 200,000
  • 12:00: 1Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $5.3t

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I kicked off Day 1 of our annual European LevFin conference in London yesterday and we had a record attendance of over 1100 issuers and investors. It was the first in-person version since 2019 and if this conference is anything to go by, people still like the personal contacts that such an event brings. I also had a dinner at the event last night so I’m a bit shattered this morning so bear with me. This conference has been going now for 26 years at DB and the headline acts at the post conference entertainment have in the past included, The Killers, Duran Duran, Cheryl Crow, Dire Straits, The Corrs, The Sugababes, Stevie Wonder and Bon Jovi. Last night’s entertainment was a pub quiz. How times have changed.

If you think the above means Zoom is dead then think again, as I’ll be doing a Zoom webinar next Wednesday (June 15th) at 2pm on my annual Default Study (“The End of the ultra-low default world?”), published earlier this week, that I presented at the conference. Please click here to register, and here to see the report itself.

The day before this (June 14th), also at 2pm London time, a selection of our heads of trading and research desks will do a call on the near-term macro outlook across rates, FX, EM, equities and credit. Please click here to register.

As I recover from the heckling of telling High Yield investors that defaults are coming, we arrive at the business end of the week with a big 36 hours ahead with the ECB meeting today, and US CPI tomorrow, looming large! And then don’t forget the FOMC, BoE and BoJ meetings next week. Markets approach this busy period on the nervous side with rates and equities selling off over the last 24 hours, and that’s still the case in much of Asia in this morning’s trading.

Starting with Europe, sovereign bond yields hit fresh highs yesterday as investors have come to view a potential 50bp hike at some point this year as an increasingly likely possibility. In fact by the close of trade yesterday, overnight index swaps were pricing in 132bps worth of ECB hikes by the December meeting, which is the highest to date and more than double the 63bps of hikes expected after their last meeting in mid-April. So if they don’t hike until July as is widely expected, that implies at least one 50bp move is being fully priced in by year-end.

In their preview last week (link here), our European economists agreed with this assessment that a 50bp hike is likely soon, and their view is that one of the two hikes in Q3 will be a 50bp hike, with September being more likely than July. After that, they then see the ECB reverting to continuous back-to-back 25bp hikes until they reach a terminal deposit rate of 2% in mid-summer 2023, although there’s a risk of a second 50bp hike before policy rates reach neutral. In terms of today’s decision however, they expect the ECB to confirm that APP net purchases will cease at the end of June, and that their new staff forecasts will show inflation at 2.0% in 2024, thus satisfying the liftoff criteria. When it comes to new guidance, their view is that the three conditions for policy rate liftoff are likely to be replaced by new guidance on the speed and extent of the hiking cycle. And finally on TLTRO, they expect the end of the TLTRO discount to be confirmed and the ECB to pledge a smooth transmission of monetary tightening through the banking system.

With all that in mind, European yields moved higher through the day, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.2bps) and OATs (+7.0bps) both rising to their highest levels since 2014. The selloff was more pronounced among peripheral debt, with yields on 10yr Italian (+8.8bps) and Spanish (+8.2bps) debt seeing even larger rises, although the spread of both over bunds was still tighter than their recent peak last week. There are signs of growing nervousness elsewhere too, with EURUSD overnight implied volatility at its highest level right now since the US presidential election in November 2020. Meanwhile, those at the more hawkish end of the Governing Council received further support yesterday from data revisions, with Euro Area growth in Q1 revised up to show a +0.6% expansion (vs. +0.3% previously).

This investor concern about rate hikes and persistent inflation was bad news for equities, first in Europe where the STOXX 600 (-0.57%) fell for a second day running and then extending to a late sell-off across the Atlantic, where the S&P 500 fell -1.08%, with only energy (+0.15%) managing to end the day in the green. This brings the index to +0.18% for the week, as it enters yet another late week showdown to see if it can manage to stay in positive territory. The decline came as 10yr Treasuries eclipsed the 3% mark again, closing up +4.8bps at 3.02%, and we’re up another +1.5 bps higher this morning at 3.036%. The impact of tighter monetary policy extended beyond risk assets and showed some signs of being felt in the real economy, too, with the number of mortgage applications in the US falling to a 22-year low in the week ending June 3.

These inflationary worries for investors and central banks were aggravated further by a fresh rise in commodity prices. Oil prices saw further gains, and Brent Crude (+2.50%) moved back above $123/bbl again, inching ever closer to their post-invasion peak levels despite news of OPEC supply expansion and US reserve releases. That trend has continued this morning, with Brent crude up a further +0.33% at $123.98/bbl. WTI (+2.26%) moved above $122/bbl as well, so not far from its peak closing level following the invasion of $123.70/bbl. US natural gas prices displayed a lot of volatility, hitting a post-2008 high intraday before crashing into the close to finish down -6.39% following reports of a fire at a terminal used for exporting, keeping supplies stateside. European natural gas futures fell for a 6th consecutive session to hit another post-Ukraine invasion low of €78.41/MWh.

Those losses on Wall Street have carried over into Asia overnight as that rally in oil prices has ramped up worries about inflation and the outlook for interest rates. The Hang Seng (-0.24%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.49%) and the CSI 300 (-0.64%) are all in negative territory, as is the Kospi (-0.31%), although the Nikkei (+0.26%) is up as the weaker Yen has raised hopes for an earnings improvement. Indeed yesterday, the Yen fell a further -1.22% against the US Dollar to close at a 20-year low of 134.25 Yen per dollar, having at one point traded at an intraday low of 134.47. Bear in mind that its intraday low so far in the 21st century was at 135.15 back in January 2002, so we’re not far off reaching levels unseen since the 1990s, although this morning it’s strengthened a touch to 134.06. Outside of Asia, stock futures in the US and Europe are pointing to additional losses today with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.10%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.11%) and DAX (-0.44%) edging lower.

Finally on the data front, China’s May exports advanced +16.9% y/y, beating analyst estimates for a +8.0% rise and faster than the +3.9% increase in April. At the same time, the nation’s trade surplus grew to $78.76 bn in May, (vs. $57.7 bn expected) and compared to a $51.12 bn surplus in April. Separately, German industrial production grew by a weaker-than-expected +0.7% in April (vs. +1.2% expected), which comes on the back of an unexpected contraction in factory orders the previous day.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned ECB decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. We’ll also hear from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, and data releases today include the US weekly initial jobless claims.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.84 PTS OR 0.76%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 145.54 PTS OR 0.66%    /The Nikkei closed UP 12.24 OR 0.04%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.45%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.6764    /Oil UP TO  122.04dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 123.61 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6765 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6819: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER/

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B  JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

Yields skyrocket throughout Europe as Lagarde announces rate hikes.  EU is undergoing defragmentation amid a stagflation forecast

(zerohedge)

 ECB’s Lagarde Threads Needle Of Rate-Hikes Amid EU Defragmentation & Stagflation Forecast

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 08:23 AM

Following The ECB’s statement, traders have moved rate-hike expectations up to around 150bps by December 2022…

All eyes will now be on what Lagarde says at the press conference as she tries to thread a needle of a fragmenting European bond market, ending bond-buying, and hiking rates into her own stagflationary forecast (lower growth and higher inflation). As Bloomberg Economics’ Geoff King points out:

“The most closely scrutinized part of the press conference will be any comments made by Lagarde on the likelihood of a 50 bp interest rate increase instead of a 25 bp move. She has published a roadmap for her preferred course of action and it’s consistent with 25 bp increases in July and September. We don’t expect her message to differ, but she’s changed tack before after inflation surpassed expectations.”

Markets were pricing in the 25 bp increase in July (and about a 40% chance of a 50bp move), and pricing in 25bps hikes for September and December as well as one each quarter thereafter until the main refinancing rate hits 1.5% (the estimate of neutral).

Watch live here (due to start at 0830ET)

*  *  *

Amid increasingly fragmented European bond markets, The ECB – as expected and well telegraphed for months – officially ended its bond-purchasing scheme and signaled lift-off on its interest rates, after eight years of NIRP (currently at -50bps).

European sovereign bond spreads are breaking out as the post-QE era begins…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, given the surge in Italian yields/spreads, speaking just hours before the decision today, Lagarde’s predecessor Mario Draghi sounded a note of caution on tightening too fast.

Europe’s ‘inflation problem’ – which began long before Putin invaded Ukraine – have forced Lagarde into this corner, despite drastically slowing growth (as stagflationary threats leave central planners in a box).

Source: Bloomberg

The statement confirms that the ECB’s net buying under its asset-purchase program will conclude this month. That paves the way for Lagarde to hike rates next month, in effect keeping its long-standing promise that an end to its asset purchases will precede an increase in the benchmark deposit rate.

QE Ends July 1:

 The Governing Council decided to end net asset purchases under its asset purchase programme (APP) as of 1 July 2022. The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain ample liquidity conditions and an appropriate monetary policy stance.

No hint at QT:

“The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time”

Forward Guidance of a 25bps hike in July:

Accordingly, and in line with the Governing Council’s policy sequencing, the Governing Council intends to raise the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points at its July monetary policy meeting. In the meantime, the Governing Council decided to leave the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively.

On Fragmentation (via Bloomberg):

There’s no substantive change to the part of the statement relating to what the ECB could do to counter an unwarranted widening of spreads as it pares back stimulus. It amounts to a repeat of the point that “under stressed conditions, flexibility will remain an element of monetary policy.” The key question is whether an anti-fragmentation tool – which Bloomberg reported the ECB has worked on – should be explicit or implicit. It will be interesting to see how Lagarde responds to questions on this.

Additionally The ECB revised its inflation forecast notably higher and growth forecasts significantly lower (via Newsquawk)

Eurosystem staff have revised their baseline inflation projections up significantly.

These projections indicate that inflation will remain undesirably elevated for some time.

However, moderating energy costs, the easing of supply disruptions related to the pandemic and the normalisation of monetary policy are expected to lead to a decline in inflation.

The new staff projections foresee annual inflation at 6.8% in 2022. before it is projected to decline to 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024 – higher than in the March projections.

This means that headline inflation at the end of the projection horizon is projected to be slightly above the Governing Council’s target.

Inflation excluding energy and food is projected to average 3.3% in 2022. 2.8% in 2023 and 2 3% in 2024 – also above the March projections.

ECB cuts its 2022 growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.7% and 2023 to 2.1% from 2.8%. For 2024, it’s an upward revision to 2.1% from 1.6%.

The euro spiked ahead of the ECB decision then tumbled after only to immediately bounce back…

Read the full ECB Statement below:

High inflation is a major challenge for all of us. The Governing Council will make sure that inflation returns to its 2% target over the medium term.

In May inflation again rose significantly, mainly because of surging energy and food prices, including due to the impact of the war. But inflation pressures have broadened and intensified, with prices for many goods and services increasing strongly. Eurosystem staff have revised their baseline inflation projections up significantly. These projections indicate that inflation will remain undesirably elevated for some time. However, moderating energy costs, the easing of supply disruptions related to the pandemic and the normalisation of monetary policy are expected to lead to a decline in inflation. The new staff projections foresee annual inflation at 6.8% in 2022, before it is projected to decline to 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024 – higher than in the March projections. This means that headline inflation at the end of the projection horizon is projected to be slightly above the Governing Council’s target. Inflation excluding energy and food is projected to average 3.3% in 2022, 2.8% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024 – also above the March projections.

Russia’s unjustified aggression towards Ukraine continues to weigh on the economy in Europe and beyond. It is disrupting trade, is leading to shortages of materials, and is contributing to high energy and commodity prices. These factors will continue to weigh on confidence and dampen growth, especially in the near term. However, the conditions are in place for the economy to continue to grow on account of the ongoing reopening of the economy, a strong labour market, fiscal support and savings built up during the pandemic. Once current headwinds abate, economic activity is expected to pick up again. This outlook is broadly reflected in the Eurosystem staff projections, which foresee annual real GDP growth at 2.8% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024. Compared with the March projections, the outlook has been revised down significantly for 2022 and 2023, while for 2024 it has been revised up.

On the basis of its updated assessment, the Governing Council decided to take further steps in normalising its monetary policy. Throughout this process, the Governing Council will maintain optionality, data-dependence, gradualism and flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The Governing Council decided to end net asset purchases under its asset purchase programme (APP) as of 1 July 2022. The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain ample liquidity conditions and an appropriate monetary policy stance.

As concerns the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), the Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

In the event of renewed market fragmentation related to the pandemic, PEPP reinvestments can be adjusted flexibly across time, asset classes and jurisdictions at any time. This could include purchasing bonds issued by the Hellenic Republic over and above rollovers of redemptions in order to avoid an interruption of purchases in that jurisdiction, which could impair the transmission of monetary policy to the Greek economy while it is still recovering from the fallout from the pandemic. Net purchases under the PEPP could also be resumed, if necessary, to counter negative shocks related to the pandemic.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council undertook a careful review of the conditions which, according to its forward guidance, should be satisfied before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates. As a result of this assessment, the Governing Council concluded that those conditions have been satisfied.

Accordingly, and in line with the Governing Council’s policy sequencing, the Governing Council intends to raise the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points at its July monetary policy meeting. In the meantime, the Governing Council decided to leave the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively.

Looking further ahead, the Governing Council expects to raise the key ECB interest rates again in September. The calibration of this rate increase will depend on the updated medium-term inflation outlook. If the medium-term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates, a larger increment will be appropriate at the September meeting.

Beyond September, based on its current assessment, the Governing Council anticipates that a gradual but sustained path of further increases in interest rates will be appropriate. In line with the Governing Council’s commitment to its 2% medium-term target, the pace at which the Governing Council adjusts its monetary policy will depend on the incoming data and how it assesses inflation to develop in the medium term.

Refinancing operations

The Governing Council will continue to monitor bank funding conditions and ensure that the maturing of operations under the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) does not hamper the smooth transmission of its monetary policy. The Governing Council will also regularly assess how targeted lending operations are contributing to its monetary policy stance. As announced previously, the special conditions applicable under TLTRO III will end on 23 June 2022.

***

The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, incorporating flexibility if warranted, to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term. The pandemic has shown that, under stressed conditions, flexibility in the design and conduct of asset purchases has helped to counter the impaired transmission of monetary policy and made the Governing Council’s efforts to achieve its goal more effective. Within the ECB’s mandate, under stressed conditions, flexibility will remain an element of monetary policy whenever threats to monetary policy transmission jeopardise the attainment of price stability

end

Euro Weakens, Fragmentation Fears Rise As Hawkish Lagarde Promises Bond Bailout

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 09:36 AM

  • End of QE? Check!
  • Interest-rate hikes? Check!
  • Peripheral spread-narrowing tools? Check!

ECB President Christine Lagarde started with the pre-approved hawkish comments, blaming Putin for both weaker growth forecasts and higher inflation outlooks, promising to end the bond-buying and start hiking rates in July.

But then, the question of ‘fragmentation’ loomed (the fact that peripheral bond yields/spreads are decoupling – in a bad way – from the core, since she stopped buying everything), and the ECB boss appeared to fold like cheap lawn chair.

Lagarde says it is necessary to ensure monetary policy is transmitted through the whole area:

“we need to make sure there is no fragmentation.”

She notes there are existing instruments with the reinvestment capacity under the PEPP.

“And if it is necessary, as we have amply demonstrated in the past, we will deploy either existing or new instruments that will be made available.”

Lagarde states that “within our mandate we are committed to preventing fragmentation risks within the euro area.”

So some kind of asset purchase scheme for peripherals? The vagueness is intentional as it appears Lagarde is trying to pull off a Draghi ‘Whatever it takes’ moment while keeping her foot on the hawkish pedal.

As The IIF’s Robin Brooks pointed out:

If the ECB says to markets: “we will defend Italy’s spread,” markets will for sure test that statement.

So – in effect – what the ECB did today is to raise the odds of markets trying to force its hand.

All this is avoidable. Don’t hike. The Euro zone is going into recession…

The Euro reacted to this ‘dovish’ stance immediately, erasing its gains and heading to the lows of the day…

European bond spreads were mixed interestingly with Italian spread compressing (Lagarde will save us) while Spain and Portugal widened…

Greek yields are blowing out again…

The reason this is worrisome is clear – markets are once again pricing in non-negligible possibility of ‘Italeave’…

So which is it Christine? More money printing for the PIIGS and nothing for the core? Or a real effort to battle inflation?

UK

Record UK gasoline prices…biggest surge in 17 years

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Record UK Gasoline Prices See Biggest Daily Surge In 17 Years

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

UK gasoline prices continue to set records, with the daily price jump between Monday and Tuesday at its highest in 17 years, RAC, the UK’s longest-serving motoring organization, says.

“The average price of petrol endured its biggest daily jump in 17 years by going more than 2p (2.23p) a litre on Tuesday (7 June), taking it to nearly 181p a litre (180.73p),” RAC fuel spokesperson Simon Williams said as carried by Auto Express.

Gasoline prices were at a record high of $2.27 (£1.81) per liter, or around $8.60 per U.S. gallon, on Tuesday, according to data from RAC Fuel Watch, which expects prices to continue rising in the near term. 

“These are unprecedented times in terms of the accelerating cost of forecourt fuel. Sadly, it seems we are still some way from the peak,” RAC’s Williams said.

A full tank of gasoline for a typical family car has now jumped to $125 (£99.40), up from $120 (£95.16) at the start of last week. The £100 per full tank mark could be reached as soon as on Thursday, analysts say.   

“With analysts predicting that oil will average $135 a barrel for the rest of this year drivers need to brace themselves for average fuel prices rocketing to £2 a litre which would mean a fill-up would rise to an unbelievable £110,” RAC said earlier this week.

The new record highs in gasoline prices add to the cost-of-living crisis in the UK where energy bills are set to surge this autumn.

Gasoline prices are soaring in the United States, too. The average gasoline price in America was $4.955 a gallon on June 8, up by a massive $0.30 jump in one week.

[ZH: For a comparison, UK gas (per gallon) is at $6.135]

Gasoline prices set a new record for the 10th straight day and Americans are now spending over $700 million more per day on gasoline versus a year ago, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for fuel-savings app GasBuddy, said on Wednesday.

end

UK/RUSSIAN CONTROLLED DONBAS

UK Outraged After 2 British ‘Mercenaries’ Handed Death Sentences By Pro-Russian Donetsk Court

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 02:05 PM

Initially reports suggested that a pair of captured British foreign fighters in Russian military custody faced 20 years in jail, but the final ruling in what Western observers have condemned as a “show trial” has ended up shockingly worse. On Thursday 28-year old Aiden Aslin and 48-year old Shaun Pinner have been sentenced to death by a court in the pro-Russian breakaway republic of Donetsk.

The British nationals had been serving in the Ukrainian military, but were captured in April while fighting in now Russian-conquered Mariupol. They appeared in a Donetsk court this week on charges of “terrorism” and “being a mercenary”. On Wednesday Russian state RIA Novosti aired footage of the men pleading “guilty” to the crimes, which critics say was coerced. A captured Moroccan national fighting for the Ukrainians, Saaudun Brahim, was also sentenced to death in the same proceedings.

Aslin’s family has rejected the “mercenary” accusation given he was in the Ukrainian Marines. A family statement said he “is not, contrary to the Kremlin’s propaganda, a volunteer, a mercenary, or a spy.” Further they said pro-Russian forces violated the Geneva conventions as they released a video of him “speaking under duress and having clearly suffered physical injuries.”

The Russian-owned news agency RIA Novosti said on Telegram: “The Supreme Court of the DPR passed the first sentence on mercenaries – the British Aiden Aslin and Sean Pinner and the Moroccan Saadun Brahim were sentenced to death, RIA Novosti correspondent reports from the courtroom.”

The Interfax news agency said the three men were tried for “mercenarism” and activities “aimed at seizing power and toppling the constitutional order” of Donetsk—UK Express

After their capture in April, both men appeared on Russian state TV pleading for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to negotiate their release. DPR authorities claimed they had committed “monstrous” crimes against the people.

Pinner and Aiden during that prior appearance spoke at the prompting of an unidentified man in the footage, and requested that Johnson bring them home in exchange for pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk, who is being held by the Ukrainian side after Zelensky ordered the opposition leader’s arrest.

Thus this latest shock death sentence pronouncement may be intended as leverage and to put pressure on the UK government to see the proposed prisoner exchange through. Regardless, Johnson and British leaders are going to be outraged over the death penalty sentencing.

An initial statement from London within hours of the verdict said the UK is “deeply concerned” over death sentences for British fighters in Ukraine. The UK intends to file protest, also given that the DPR court is not internationally recognized. A government statement said:

“We are obviously deeply concerned by this. We have said continually that prisoners of war shouldn’t be exploited for political purposes.

You will know that under the Geneva Convention prisoners of war are entitled to combatant immunity and they should not be prosecuted for participation in hostilities.

So we will continue to work with the Ukrainian authorities to try and secure the release of any British nationals who were serving in the Ukrainian armed forces and who are being held as prisoners of war.'”

Western and Ukrainian media have slammed the “sham trial” of the men.

Pinner previously served as a British Army soldier before moving to Ukraine four years ago, after which he enlisted in Ukraine’s national army. Likely the Kremlin also intends the extreme sentencing to serve as a warning and message to other foreign fighters volunteering to defend Ukraine, which are commonly estimated to be in the many thousands. 

EU GAS PRICES

European gas jumps today after one of the USA’s largest liquified natural gas (LNG) export terminals experienced an explosion occurred on Wednesday

(zerohedge)

European Gas Soars After US LNG Terminal Explosion Halts Exports For Weeks

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 10:50 AM

Europe’s natural gas prices jumped Thursday after one of the US’ largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals experienced an explosion on Wednesday and has been shut down. A large share of the terminal’s LNG has been destined for Europe as the continent weens off Russian supplies.

According to Bloomberg, the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas will be shuttered for at least three weeks, which will impact 20% of all US LNG exports. In the last four months, 75% of all US LNG exports have been sent to Europe. 

“In the last three months, 68% of all Freeport cargoes were delivered into European markets,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at ICIS. 

Ole Hansen, head of the commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, said the situation at Freeport has upended European gas markets after “calm trading seen in recent weeks.” 

Dutch front-month gas, the European benchmark, traded as high as 16% before giving up some gains and trading at 84 euros per megawatt-hour.

After the reports of the explosion, we noted that US natgas was sold due to export halt fears would build supplies on the domestic grid; inversely, EU natgas would soar because of a decline in export shipments. 

For those puzzled by the price action, US NatGas’s slump is in response to the prospect that fewer LNG exports would mean more supply domestically, though inversely, it would mean higher prices in Europe since the US has been increasingly sending LNG across the Atlantic to ween European countries off Russian supplies.

Since the incident at Freeport, US natgas prices have plunged 15%. 

Analysts at Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research said, “very little information is known about the extent of the damage and how long it will take to repair.”  

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/EUROPE/UK/USA

This is a big deal as the insurance ban will be the biggest blow yet to Russian oil exports

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Insurance Ban Is The EU’s Biggest Blow Yet To Russian Oil Exports

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 01:09 PM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • The EU has just taken another drastic step to curb Russian oil revenues.
  • Joining the UK, the EU has placed a ban on insuring and financing the marine transportation of Russian oil.
  • The insurance ban will likely have a massive impact on Russian oil exports.

The EU’s embargo on 90 percent of all its oil imports from Russia by the end of the year made most headlines last week after the bloc reached a watered-down deal to ban most of Russia’s oil.

But the much bigger blow to Russian oil exports that will have dramatic consequences on the global oil tanker market and oil prices comes from provision number two in the latest sanctions package – EU operators will be prohibited from insuring and financing the marine transportation of Russian oil to third countries.

With the UK set to join the insurance ban after the UK and the European Union agreeing to jointly shut off Russia’s access to oil cargo insurance, Russia will be effectively shut out of more than 90% of the global oil shipment insurance market.   

The insurance ban is a much bigger deal than the actual EU embargo on Russian oil imports, as it would cripple Russia’s ability to export crude anywhere in the world, analysts say. Russian exports from its Arctic oil projects will be especially hit because of the higher risk of liabilities, they note.  

Moscow struck a defiant tone, and Dmitry Medvedev, a former president and now deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, said earlier this week that Russian tankers that cannot get insurance would be provided with state assurance under Russia’s trade agreements with other countries. 

For some buyers, this may not be enough. For most ports in the world, this certainly will not be enough because most of the ports do not allow tankers to dock unless they have full insurance coverage, including insurance from the UK-based International Group of P&I Clubs, which handles 95% of the tanker insurance market and consists mostly of UK, U.S., and European insurers. 

New York-based ship broker and energy consultancy Poten & Partners says the ban would effectively remove many tankers out of the market for shipping Russian crude, leaving Russia and its willing customers China and India scrambling to find state-controlled vessels and forms of guarantees to move the oil from Russia to China and India.

“Finding these vessels and arranging insurance for them outside the EU and UK markets could be very challenging,” Poten & Partners said last week, as carried by maritime news outlet Splash. 

Erik Broekhuizen, head of tanker research at Poten & Partners, told NPR last week that the insurance ban is “a huge deal” in the EU’s sanctions package to first ban Russian seaborne imports and then ban insurance coverage on Russian oil.  

“It’s the one-two punch. It’s the second one that could be a knockout blow,” Broekhuizen said. 

The insurance ban is also a huge blow to Russia’s Arctic oil projects, with Gazprom Neft and Lukoil exporting crude from three projects currently, and the biggest oil producer Rosneft looking to develop the huge Vostok Oil project. Without insurance, or insufficient insurance on the Arctic oil routes eastward to China, a tanker carrying oil in Arctic waters and ice is a disaster waiting to happen, Malte Humpert of High North News writes.

China and India are Russia’s chance to divert some of the exports that would have gone to its-soon-to-be-former-top-market Europe, but the EU-UK ban on insurance could limit the amount of crude Russia could send to Asia, analysts say. 

“The EU is not simply saying, OK, we’re not going to take the barrels, but we’re fine somebody else taking it and hence we don’t have any major market disruption. The EU is actually moving to take those barrels off the market, not just move them around. And that is important,” Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told NPR. 

The EU’s import and insurance ban will lead to higher shipping and insurance costs on top of removing part of Russia’s oil off the market. As a result, oil prices will remain elevated in the near term. 

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Even if Ukraine’s ports open today, it will takes months to demine them according to the UN

(zerohedge)

Even If Ukraine’s Ports Open Up Tomorrow, It Will Take “Months” To Demine Them: UN

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 07:20 PM

At a moment global humanitarian and hunger relief groups are warning of a “catastrophe” for already vulnerable populations particularly in Africa and the Middle East which rely heavily on Ukrainian and Black Sea region grain exports, the United Nations has said it will likely take “months” to de-mine Ukraine’s ports. The war-torn country is the fourth biggest exporter of grain in the world.

Hundreds of merchant vessels had been stranded in the war’s opening months at Ukrainian ports following the Russian invasion, and still nearly 100 remain stuck along with their crews. This week a special advisor on maritime security at the UN’s International Maritime Organization told Bloomberg“Even if the ports wanted to reopen tomorrow it would take some time until ships could enter or depart.” But it remains that before this, “Completely removing sea mines in the port areas would take several months.”

The de-mining issue has stalled UN-sponsored negotiations in Istanbul between Russia and Turkey to establish a ‘grain corridor’ to get the vital exports needed for much of the world’s food moving again. Kiev has charged that both the Russian naval blockade as well as Russian forces’ theft of Ukraine’s grain is the reason for the emerging global food and supply crisis, while the Kremlin has long blamed Ukraine for heavily mining its own ports.

Statements from the Ukrainian and Russian governments, as well as in international reports, indicate there are literally multiple thousands of mines up and down Ukraine’s coast. For this reason, Ukrainian government officials have estimated that if it started demining efforts now, it would take a whopping six months to clear the coast of Ukrainian and Russian mines, as cited in The Guardian.

In his latest statements, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the onus is on the Ukrainian side

We state daily that we’re ready to guarantee the safety of vessels leaving Ukrainian ports and heading for the (Bosphorus) gulf, we’re ready to do that in cooperation with our Turkish colleagues,” he said after talks with his Turkish counterpart.

“To solve the problem, the only thing needed is for the Ukrainians to let vessels out of their ports, either by demining them or by marking out safe corridors, nothing more is required.”

Ukraine has rejected this narrative or that it bears responsibility for placing mines in the face of an invading power. The standoff and firm words on Wednesday strongly suggesting there’s no resolution to the crisis in sight.

“Freight and insurance costs spiked after several merchant ships were hit in the early days of Russia’s invasion, and some shipping companies are still avoiding the Black Sea,” Bloomberg details of a still dangerous situation for Black Sea shipping. “Three mines were detected free-floating in March, two off the coast of Turkey and one near Romania. In the northwest of the Black Sea near Ukraine, commercial ships have stopped operating,” the report adds.

In terms of estimated numbers, there were initially 2,000 commercial ships stuck at Ukrainian ports – but in recent weeks this is down to over 80 international ships which represent some 450 crew members.

But again, even if a deal between Russia and Ukraine to lift the blockade were struck tomorrow, the presence of mines would make it unsafe for commercial maritime traffic:

According to the UN, Russia and Ukraine supply about 40% of the wheat consumed in Africa, where prices have already risen by about 23%.

However, Markiyan Dmytrasevych, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of agrarian policy and food, said on Tuesday that even if Russia lifted its blockade, thousands of mines would remain floating around the port of Odesa, and elsewhere.

Meanwhile, spokesman for the World Food Programme, Petroc Wilton, told Sky News on Wednesday that an already bad situation is about to get a lot worse. “Food prices were already going really, really high,” he said, and explained: “The concern now is that Ukraine is making these things worse, but also because of the impact that the Ukraine crisis is having on aviation fuel costs, (and) is having on international shipping costs.”

He emphasized: “So the real concern right now is that Ukraine will make an already dire situation so much worse.”

END

UKRAINE/EU/BULGARIA

Bulgaria has done enough aid to Ukraine.  NATO EU cracks deepen

(zerohedge)

Bulgaria Says “We’ve Done Enough” On Ukraine Aid As NATO-EU Cracks Deepen

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Bulgaria says it’s “done enough” for Ukraine and has no plans to send heavy weapons, a Tuesday statement from Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov indicated.

We’ll do what we have promised to do and there’s no need to reignite the debate every two weeks,” Petkov said. “We’ve supported the incoming refugees, we have sent all kinds of humanitarian aid, we have also been involved with repairing Ukraine’s heavy weapons and we’re in line with all sanctions against Russia.”

The pushback from Bulgaria’s leader comes amid growing pressure after most NATO countries have ramped up their military supplies to Kiev, including some Baltic and Western European states transferring heavy weapons, up to an including even tanks.

Since the war’s start and Western calls for heavier armaments to help Ukrainian forces repel the Russian invasion, the question of aid to Ukraine has threatened to fracture Petkov’s ruling coalition government, resulting in an earlier agreement that Sofia would refrain from supplying arms or ammunition.

Previously European media reported

The Bulgarian Socialist Party, or BSP, is traditionally friendly towards Russia and since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 this year, it threatened to leave the country’s coalition government if Sofia were to send weapons to Ukraine. The party’s departure would topple the current Bulgarian government.

BSP supporters and allies have argued that supplying arms would make Bulgaria a party to the conflict, resulting in Russian retaliation, which has been the position of Bulgarian President Rumen Radev.

A week ago a report in The Wall Street Journal detailed growing dissent against the US-UK plan for bigger arms for Ukraine: “Cracks are appearing in the Western front against Moscow, with America’s European allies increasingly split over whether to keep shipping more powerful weapons to Ukraine, which some of them fear could prolong the conflict and increase its economic fallout,” the report said.

It continued: “At the center of the disagreement—which is splitting a group of Western European powers from the U.S., U.K. and a group of mostly central and northern European nations—are diverging perceptions of the long-term threat posed by Russia and whether Ukraine can actually prevail on the battlefield.”

The UK’s Boris Johnson in particular has been at the forefront of telling the Ukrainians to not concede any territory or negotiation with the Russians, despite that this uncompromising approach is sure to end in more death and destruction. Geographically and geopolitically, eastern European states like Bulgaria have much more to lose if the chart an uncompromising approach to “standing up” to Moscow.

end

What happens to weapons sent to Ukraine? The US doesn’t really know – CNNPolitics

Inbox

Robert Hryniak4:03 PM (1 minute ago)
to

Really ???? The title should be “the big lie”.

Can you really tell the difference between gun running of old and today’s gun running? Would it surprise you that in the Ukraine 65% + of all the weapons being sent there are being sold throughout Europe and abroad? Yes that’s right basically 2/3 of all the fine equipment being sent for free at someone else’s expense is being sent off to those parties desiring such weapons for obvious no good. And one should think more is better ??? Why does anyone think these classy weapons will be used against a Russian when money is to be made by what is the most corrupt nation in Europe, run by a criminal oligarchy. It is much more much more profitable to sell than use these weapons.

Whether you believe in the conflict or not, that is occurring in the Ukraine today, one must understand that the death of many Ukrainians is nothing more than a lowly bid for time to make more money.  Tragic as it may be, this is a reality, as soldiers die in vain and arms are sold. To say and condone such reality is plain hypocrisy and should beyond embarrassing for nation leaders and nation states, assuming they have sovereignty and are not colonies, or corrupted officials. Already, the dead Ukrainians number 45-50,000 with another 30,000+ MIA. They are dying or missing at a rate of 1,200-1,500 a day. And no you will not see public protests against Zelensky in Kiev because such events are not to be shown, much like what you saw with Covid protests last year, that received minimum coverage. 

Do you know that you can buy a stinger missile for $30,000? And of course if you’re bold and want target practice you can buy four for a S100,000. The cost to the US is $206,000 each. Most of these Weapons are being sent off to places like Serbia as quickly as they arrive by car and van, where you can easily buy them on the dark  Web with next day delivery, in Europe. And yes, USD or Euro’s are fine as is crypto.  It is remarkable, that  publicly there is no huge Outcry over what is obvious blatant gunrunning. Further, it is even more  remarkable that the enablers of fools like Zelensky are not held to account. Perhaps, there is ample reason for countries like Bulgaria to state they have done enough and will not supply further aid to the Ukraine. 

So, ask yourself how future European society will contend with this, when these weapons are used? Because, it is only a matter of time. Both travel and living in Europe takes on new  meaning as risks to one’s person rise. As for other buyers in Africa, they already live with violence that will grow worse. Welcome to THE BIG LIE!



https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics/us-weapons-ukraine-intelligence/index.html

What happens to weapons sent to Ukraine? The US doesn’t really know

Washington (CNN) — The US has few ways to track the substantial supply of anti-tank, anti-aircraft and other weaponry it has sent across the border into Ukraine, sources tell CNN, a blind spot that’s due in large part to the lack of US boots on the ground in the country — and the easy portability of many of the smaller systems now pouring across the border.

It’s a conscious risk the Biden administration is willing to take.

In the short term, the US sees the transfer of hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of equipment to be vital to the Ukrainians’ ability to hold off Moscow’s invasion. A senior defense official said Tuesday that it is “certainly the largest recent supply to a partner country in a conflict.” But the risk, both current US officials and defense analysts say, is that in the long term, some of those weapons may wind up in the hands of other militaries and militias that the US did not intend to arm.

“We have fidelity for a short time, but when it enters the fog of war, we have almost zero,” said one source briefed on US intelligence. “It drops into a big black hole, and you have almost no sense of it at all after a short period of time.”

In making the decision to send billions of dollars of weapons and equipment into Ukraine, the Biden administration factored in the risk that some of the shipments may ultimately end up in unexpected places, a defense official said.

But right now, the official said, the administration views a failure to adequately arm Ukraine as a greater risk.

<img alt=”Why the Biden administration is giving new, heavier weapons to Ukraine ” class=”media__image” src=”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220413190447-01-mi-17-helicopter-poland-large-169.jpg”>

Because the US military is not on the ground, the US and NATO are heavily reliant on information provided by Ukraine’s government. Privately, officials recognize that Ukraine has an incentive to give only information that will bolster their case for more aid, more arms and more diplomatic assistance.

“It’s a war — everything they do and say publicly is designed to help them win the war. Every public statement is an information operation, every interview, every Zelensky appearance broadcast is an information operation,” said another source familiar with western intelligence. “It doesn’t mean they’re wrong to do it in any way.”

For months, US and western officials have offered detailed accounts about what the West knows about the status of Russian forces inside Ukraine: how many casualties they’ve taken, their remaining combat power, their weapons stocks, what kinds of munitions they are using and where.

But when it comes to Ukrainian forces, officials acknowledge that the West — including the US — has some information gaps.

Western estimates of Ukrainian casualties are also foggy, according to two sources familiar with US and western intelligence.

“It’s hard to track with nobody on the ground,” said one source familiar with the intelligence.

Visibility Questions

The Biden administration and NATO countries say they are providing weapons to Ukraine based on what the Ukrainian forces say they need, whether it’s portable systems like Javelin and Stinger missiles or the Slovakian S-300 air defense system that was sent over the last week.

Javelin and Stinger missiles and rifles and ammunition are naturally harder to track than larger systems like the S-300, which was shipped by rail. Although Javelins have serial numbers, there is little way to track their transfer and use in real time, sources familiar with the matter say.

Last week the US agreed to provide Kyiv with the types of high-power capabilities some Biden administration officials viewed as too much of an escalation risk a few short weeks ago, including 11 Mi-17 helicopters, 18 155 mm Howitzer cannons and 300 more Switchblade drones. But much of that support hasn’t yet come online — and the Switchblades are mobile, one-time use drones that would also likely be difficult to track after the fact.

<img alt=”Biden unveils $800 million security package for Ukraine in call with Zelensky” class=”media__image” src=”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220103073851-biden-zelensky-split-dec-2021-large-16-9.jpg”>

“I couldn’t tell you where they are in Ukraine and whether the Ukrainians are using them at this point,” a senior defense official told reporters last week. “They’re not telling us every round of ammunition they’re firing and who and at when. We may never know exactly to what degree they’ve using the Switchblades.”

The Defense Department doesn’t earmark the weapons it sends for particular units, according to Pentagon press secretary John Kirby.

Trucks loaded with pallets of arms provided by the Defense Department are picked up by Ukrainian armed forces — primarily in Poland — and then driven into Ukraine, Kirby said, “then it’s up to the Ukrainians to determine where they go and how they’re allocated inside their country.”

A congressional source pointed out that while the US is not on the ground in Ukraine, the US has tools to learn what’s happening beyond what the Ukrainians are saying, noting the US has extensive use of satellite imagery and both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries appear to be using commercial communications equipment.

Another congressional source said the US military’s views the information it’s receiving from Ukraine as generally reliable because the US has trained and equipped the Ukrainian military for eight years now, developing strong relationships. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some blind spots, the source said, such as on issues like the operational status of Ukraine’s S-300s.

Jordan Cohen, a defense and foreign policy analyst at the CATO institute who focuses on arms sales, said the biggest danger surrounding the flood of weapons being funneled into Ukraine is what happens to them when the war ends or transitions into some kind of protracted stalemate.

Such a risk is part of any consideration to send weapons overseas. For decades, the US sent arms into Afghanistan, first to arm the mujahideen in their fight against the Soviet army, then to arm Afghan forces in their fight against the Taliban.

Inevitably, some weapons ended up on the black market including anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, the same kind the US is now providing to Ukraine.

The United States famously scrambled to recover Stingers after the Soviet war in Afghanistan. It wasn’t successful in finding all of them and when the US itself invaded Afghanistan in 2001, some officials feared that they could be used by the Taliban against the United States.

Other weapons have ended up arming US adversaries. Much of what the US left behind to help Afghan forces became part of the Taliban arsenal after the collapse of the Afghan government and military.

<img alt=”Rifles, Humvees and millions of rounds of ammo: Taliban celebrate their new American arsenal” class=”media__image” src=”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210820160408-02-taliban-us-weapons-parade-large-169.jpg”>

The problem is not unique to Afghanistan. Weapons sold to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates found their way into the hands of fighters linked to al-Qaeda and Iran.

The risk of a similar scenario happening in Ukraine also exists, the defense official acknowledged. In 2020, the Defense Department inspector general released a report raising concerns about the end-use monitoring of weapons being sent to Ukraine.

But given the nearly insatiable short-term needs of Ukrainian forces for more arms and ammunition, the long-term risk of weapons ending up on the black market or in the wrong hands was deemed acceptable, the official said.

“This could be a problem 10 years down the line, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be something we’re thinking about,” Cohen, the CATO analyst, said. “Over 50 million rounds of ammunition — all that ammunition isn’t just going to be used to fight Russians. Eventually that ammunition is going to be misused, whether intentionally or not.”

The Russian Threat

Officials are less concerned — at least for now — that the weapons will fall into the hands of the Russians. The source briefed on the intelligence noted that Russia’s failure to hold large swaths of territory or force the surrender of many Ukrainian units means that those arms have either been used or remain Ukrainian hands.

And so far, it appears that Russia has struggled to intercept or destroy the supply shipments. A third source familiar with the intelligence said that it does not appear that Russia has been actively attacking western weapons shipments entering Ukraine — although it is unclear exactly why, especially since the US has intelligence that the Russians want to and have discussed doing so both publicly and privately.

<img alt=”US believes Russia is learning from failures in north of Ukraine, senior defense official says ” class=”media__image” src=”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/220417154945-mariupol-ukraine-entry-exit-pass-system-large-169.jpg”>

There are a number of theories for why the shipments have so far been spared, this person added, including that Russian forces simply can’t find them — the weapons and equipment are being sent over in unmarked vehicles and often transported at night. It could also be that the Russian forces are running out of munitions and don’t want to waste them targeting random trucks unless they can be certain they are part of an arms convoy.

Though on Monday Russian claimed it had destroyed a depot “near Lviv,” which held “large consignments” of weapons provided to Ukraine by the United States and European countries. CNN has not been able to verify the claim.

But broadly, Russia doesn’t have perfect intelligence visibility into Ukraine, either, this source noted, and their air capabilities over western Ukraine, where the shipments are coming in, are extremely limited because of Ukrainian air defense systems.

Publicly, the Pentagon says it has not yet seen Russian attempts to disrupt the weapons transfers or the shipments moving inside Ukraine.

“Flights are still going into trans-shipment sites in the region. And ground movement is still occurring of this material inside Ukraine. Every single day, there are the security assistance, weapons and material and support equipment that is getting into Ukrainian hands,” Kirby said Thursday.

“We’re going to keep doing that as much as we can, as fast as we can. We have not seen any Russian efforts to interdict that flow. And so we’re just going to keep doing it,” he added. “We constantly look at it every day monitor it, change it, adapt it as needed.”

END

ISRAEL/LEBANON//GAS DISCOVERIES

Israel continues to find badly needed gas for the world.  The discovery is close to the maritime border with Lebanon and that has fueled dissention with Lebanon who has yet to find gas in its territorial waters.  Israel sends

the navy to escort drilling rigs in the disputed gas field

(Irina Slav/Oil Price.com)

Israel Sends Navy To Escort Drilling Rig In Disputed Gas Field

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  • The focus of the most recent rift between Israel and Lebanon is an offshore field called Karish.
  • While Lebanon has yet to make a commercial find of gas in its waters, Israel is already producing from a couple of giant fields.
  • The Israel-Lebanon dispute could lead to a delay in the development of East-Med gas resources.

At a time when the world’s gas supply is having to catch up with demand, two prospective gas majors in the eastern Mediterranean have locked horns over a disputed field that could delay the development of local resources. Israel and Lebanon have been at odds about their maritime border ever since gas was found. The issue seems to be of particular importance for troubled Lebanon: a big gas find could change the country’s quite grim fortunes. It is also important for Israel, however, as it eyes the position of a regional gas major.

The focus of the rift is an offshore field called Karish. According to Israel, Karish lies in its territorial waters. According to Lebanon, it falls within a triangle of contested waters because the two cannot agree where exactly the border passes. As Reuters put it, “Israel claims the boundary runs further north than Lebanon accepts, while Lebanon claims it runs further south than Israel accepts, leaving a triangle of disputed waters.”

This weekend, UK’s Energean, which has been awarded the right to drill at Karish, arrived on the site with a rig, prompting an immediate reaction from Beirut. The Lebanese president and the caretaker prime minister of the country accused Israel of violating Lebanon’s sovereignty.

The Lebanese side also says the Israeli armed forces accompanying the rig on its trip to Karish have sent battleships to the field even though the drilling rig has yet to be connected to the deposit, Israel’s Haaretz reported this week.

One interesting twist, according to Israeli sources quoted by Haaretz, is that the rig in Karish actually sits south of the border proposed by the Lebanese side, that is, in Israeli waters. According to the Lebanese side, however, this doesn’t seem to be the case.

“The Israeli enemy’s attempts to create a new crisis, by encroaching on Lebanon’s maritime wealth, and imposing a fait accompli in a disputed area in which Lebanon adheres to its rights, is extremely dangerous,” the head of the Lebanese caretaker government, Najib Mikati said.

Israel, on the other hand, has warned early on that any damage to the drilling rig in Karish—like attacks on any gas drilling rigs in its waters—will be construed as an attack on the state, implying there will be an immediate reaction.

It looks like the flare-up could be put out with mediation after Lebanon said it would invite Amos Hochstein, the U.S. State Department’s Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs and leads the Bureau of Energy Resources, to broker a resolution.

While Lebanon has yet to make a commercial find of gas in its waters, Israel is already producing from a couple of giant fields and has big plans for its gas wealth. The country recently held talks with the European Union to start exporting gas there after liquefying it in Egypt. Energy Minister Karine Elharrar said this would prompt a series of new drilling tenders, to take place in the third quarter of the year.

Over the next few years, Israel plans to double its natural gas production to 40 billion cubic meters, both through expanding existing projects such as the Leviathan field, and bringing new ones, such as Karish, online. And Europe is an obvious target market for all that gas.

“Israel must act as quickly as possible as the window to sign contracts and become a significant gas supplier to Europe will only be opened for a limited time,” gas consultant Gina Cohen said recently in a report for the Israeli Foreign Ministry and the European Parliament.

In order to materialize its plans, Israel will need to secure its gas fields, which makes the resolution of the dispute advantageous for it, too, reducing the risk of potential attacks or further rifts with its neighbor to the north.

END

IRAN

No surprise here

(zerohedge)

Iran Switches Off Monitoring Cameras As IAEA Censures Over Unexplained Uranium Traces

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 10:10 AM

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors has voted to formally censure Iran over a series of breaches related to inspections, most notably that unexplained traces of unenriched uranium have been found in at least two undeclared sites over a period of years.

The 35-nation passed the resolution with a 30 to 2 vote on Wednesday (with a few abstentions). Notably Russia and China opposed the measure, which said the following according to Reuters:

The text says the board “expresses profound concern” the traces remain unexplained due to insufficient cooperation by Iran and calls on Iran to engage with the watchdog “without delay”.

It comes after Iran last month turned over paper work which Tehran says adequately explains the breaches, but the IAEA has said it remains unsatisfied by this.

However, the agency has said Iran’s actions are fueling “distrust” and that it sees no proper civilian nuclear power application at this point:

They said Iran’s possession of 60 percent enriched uranium, in addition to deploying 2,000 advanced centrifuges and expanded research and development, is cause for great concern and is “fueling distrust as to Iran’s intentions”.

The Islamic Republic appears to have responded to the censure by further drastically reducing its cooperation. First, just ahead of the vote Al Jazeera reported, “The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) announced on Wednesday that it has turned off the Online Enrichment Monitor (OLEM) and flowmeter system of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at an unidentified nuclear site.”

And following the formal IAEA rebuke, the UN nuclear watchdog says it was informed that “Iran plans to install two new cascades of advanced centrifuges that will allow Tehran to rapidly enrich more uranium.” 

These will reportedly be added at the Natanz nuclear facility, south of Tehran. The AP details: “An IR-6 centrifuge spins uranium 10 times as fast as the first-generation centrifuges that Iran was once limited to under its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. As of February, Iran already had been spinning a cascade of IR-6s at its underground facility at Fordo, according to the IAEA.” At the same time Iran has reportedly switched off a number of UN monitoring cameras at various sites.

There’s consensus among Iran watchers that the country currently has enriched enough uranium of to 60% purity to be able to shortly bring it up to weapons-grade levels of 90% if Tehran chose to do so. 90% purity must be attained to produce a nuclear weapon. Experts say Iran likely is close enough to produce one bomb in a short time frame if it set out.

All of this of course will derail already stalled Vienna nuclear talks further. Meetings haven’t occurred for months, with the Iranians blaming Washington, after the parties returned to their respective capitals. One key issue that’s remained is removing Iran’s IRGC from the US official terror list. Iran has said this would be key to finalizing a deal, which the Biden White House has so far declared it’s not willing to do without the Iranians first taking more action.

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi followed on Thursday by vowing that Iran “will not back off a single step from its positions” following the largely just symbolic IAEA resolution, according to state media.

6//GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE

Dr Paul Alexander…

Healthy young people are dying suddenly & unexpectedly from a mysterious syndrome – SADS, as doctors seek answers through a new national register; people < 40 years old urged to get heart checked

I think the thing to consider rhymes with the word ‘MAXINE’…no? hhhhmmmm, coming to think of it, in the last 15 months, we were forced, mandated to take something that was ‘safe and effective’?

Dr. Paul AlexanderJun 9

Sudden adult death syndrome (SADS)

Was that it? Maxine?

SOURCE:

Healthy young people are dying suddenly and unexpectedly from a mysterious syndrome – as doctors seek answers through a new national register

end

GLOBAL ISSUES/SUPPLY CHAINS

OECD slashes global growth with stagflation threat growing

(zerohedge)

OECD Slashes Global Growth Outlook As Stagflation Threats Grow, Blames Putin 

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Just a day after The World Bank slashed its 2022 global growth forecast, blaming Putin, and a month after the IMF cut global growth forecasts, blaming Putin, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has done the same. 

The OECD is the latest international institution to slash global growth this year and warns of rising inflation. It trimmed 1.5 percentage points from its December global growth outlook to 3% for 2022 while downshifting global growth estimates to 2.8% for 2023. 

A view of the 2022 GDP downgrades on a country-by-country basis. 

The gloomy outlook also consists of an average inflation rate of around 8.8% across OECD’S 38 member countries, up from 4.5% in December. They indicated high inflation is a “hefty price” to pay for the war in Ukraine. 

“Countries worldwide are being hit by higher commodity prices, which add to inflationary pressures and curb real incomes and spending, dampening the recovery,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said during the outlook presentation on Wednesday. 

Cormann then blamed Putin: “This slowdown is directly attributable to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustifiable war of aggression, which is causing lower real incomes, lower growth and fewer job opportunities worldwide.”

The Paris-based organization’s forecast echoes the same downgrades of growth and high inflation, blaming Putin’s war in Ukraine, made by the World Bank on Tuesday and IMF in mid-April. 

On Tuesday, the World Bank slashed its 2022 global growth forecast to +2.9% (1.2 percentage points below January’s forecast) and blamed Putin for ongoing inflation woes. The IMF revised its projection for global growth downwards to 3.6%, a steep falloff from 6.1% last year and from the 4.4% growth it had expected for 2022 in January (and also warned about soaring inflation). 

We pointed out the continued degradation of global growth forecasts is a recipe for stagflation. 

The OECD also warned: “High inflation is eroding household incomes and spending, hitting vulnerable households particularly hard. The risk of a serious food crisis remains acute for the world’s poorest economies because of the high risk of supply shortages and elevated costs.”

Supply shocks and high food inflation have already resulted in social instability in multiple emerging market countries. 

And other OECD heads blamed Putin. Still, they refused to admit central banks and governments flooding economies with trillions of dollars during the virus pandemic resulted in a sugar high, coupled with the highest inflation in decades. 

“The Outlook is sobering, and the world is already paying the price for Russia’s aggression,” Chief Economist Laurence Boone said. “The choices made by policymakers and citizens will be crucial to determining how high that price will be and how the burden will be shared. Famine is not a price the world should pay.” 

Scapegoating Putin appears to be the play for OECD countries. Their respective central banks are frantically raising interest rates from record low levels to combat inflation, hoping to fight off the possible emergence of stagflation. 

Even if a global recession is averted, inflation will still be above trend through the end of this year and into the next. Then who will IMF, World Bank, and OECD blame for slumping economic growth and elevated inflation? Of course, don’t blame the reckless central banks for printing too much money during the pandemic… 

END

Global shipping stocks crash after JPMorgan points to the latest Freightwaves recession alert

(zerohedge)

Shipping Stocks Crash After JPM Points To Latest Freightwaves Recession Alert

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 11:20 PM

Yesterday, in “US Import Demand Is Dropping Off A Cliff“, we noted that Freightwaves (best known for sparking a crash in freight stocks at the end of March when the company’s CEO said that a “freight recession is imminent”) warned that “despite the strong levels of inbound cargo during the first five months of 2022, import demand is not just softening — it’s dropping off a cliff” or 36% in just the past few weeks…

… as retailers (ahem Target and Walmart) “suddenly” realize they have over-ordered way too much inventory, and noted that as a result, “Drewry’s container spot rates from China to the West Coast have plunged 41% month-over-month to $9,630.” While there is much more in the full note, the gist was simple: shipping rates are sliding and are set to fall further as demand for cargo evaporates with the US sliding into recession.

We bring this up because this morning JPMorgan also brought it up, with the bank’s European Transport and Logistics analyst Samuel Bland writing that a note titled “Freight Markets” (available to pro subscribers in the usual place), in which he draws attention to the FreightWaves article which he says “suggests that US import volumes of containers have fallen sharply in recent weeks. We see a similar thing in weekly data from LA and Long Beach ports.” Some details excerpted from the JPM note:

  • For context. March 2022 container volume vs the 2019 level was 4% higher globally and 43% higher on the Asia – North America lane in particular. “Normal” volume growth might be 3-4% CAGR, such that globally volume is quite weak, but very strong on Asia-US in particular. This focusing on demand on one lane, straining infrastructure and labor availability has driven up supply chain  congestion. Presumably, lower US volume would help to unwind this, freeing up to c.12% of ship capacity currently stuck in congestion.
  • Freight rates. Freight rates show a mixed pattern depending on which index is used. On a global basis, all the indices are down c.20% YTD, and by closer to 25% on a bunker-neutral basis. On the China-US West Coast lane in particular, SCFI is flat YTD, whereas the equivalent Freightos index is down 31% YTD. Importantly, the Freightos decline has all happened in the last month, with the indexed having been up YTD until early May.
  • Freight forwarder exposure. It is important to remember that sharply falling freight rates can be positive for freight forwarder  profitability in the short run. This is driven by forwarders not passing on all the saving to customers in the near term.
  • Bunker costs. We’d also highlight that the spread between low and high sulphur bunker fuel has widened sharply in recent weeks, to around $360 / tonne currently, up from nearer $120 / tonne in early May. This is most negative for those container lines with a high level of spot exposure and low level of scrubber fittings, both of which point to ZIM

JPM concludes that since the strength of the US consumer has been a key ingredient in the level of freight rate increase seen since COVID, “this is negative for the sector generally, particularly container shippers and particularly ZIM.”

The market’s reaction was quick, and just as FreightWaves crashed truckers two months ago, this time they demolishes shipping stocks which tumbled Wednesday: the Russell 3000 Index Marine Transportation Subsector dropped 4.8% for its biggest decline in a month, with all 15 members of the index were down Wednesday. Among the components, Eagle Bulk Shipping plummeted as much as 12%, its biggest intraday decline in a month, to lead a drop among index members Other notable decliners include Matson -9.3%, Genco Shipping & Trading -8.3%, Costamare -7.4%, Safe Bulkers -6.9%.

The news of a looming shipping recession quickly spread around the globe. In Europe, shares in major shipping companies including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and Kuehne & Nagel fell, on both the JPM note and also after Nordnet Bank economist Per Hansen noted similar concerns about lower freight rates as the container shipping market normalizes and about the impact of a possible recession in the US. Maersk dropped as much as 8.3%, the most intraday in a month, while Hapag-Lloyd falls as much as 8.3% and Kuehne & Nagel drops 4.4%

A similar dumpfest was observed in Asia too, with shipping stocks in Japan and South Korea following their global peers lower following the JPMorgan reference to the FreightWaves article:

  • Japan’s Mitsui OSK -7%, Kawasaki Kisen -7.6%, Nippon Yusen -6.7%
  • South Korea shipping companies: HMM -3.8%, Korea Line -2.1%, Pan Ocean -3%
  • Taiwan’s Evergreen Marine -3.1%, Yang Ming Marine -2.3%, Wan Hai Lines -3.1%
  • Hong Kong-listed Cosco Shipping -6.7%, Orient Overseas -7%, Pacific Basin -5.5%, SITC International -6%
  • China’s Cosco Shipping Holdings -4.6%, Cosco Shipping Energy -3.4%, China Merchants Energy Shipping -3.1%, Ningbo Marine -1.1%

And while shipping is certainly one of the most leading recessionary indicators, and a recession most certainly is looming, what we find fascinating is just how little work the “market” had done on shipping stocks: after all, all Freightwaves – and by extension JPM – did was to look at the latest shipping rates and volumes, data that is available to every Bloomberg terminal subscriber. And yet, not a single one appeared to have pulled it up… until today. Which begs the question: does anyone even remember how to do simple fundamental analysis any more?

VACCINE INJURY

Vaccine Impact


As Some Lockdowns in China End, People Beg the Government for Freedom Trying to Escape Medical Tyranny

June 8, 2022 7:12 pm

On June 1, 2022, it was announced that lockdowns in Shanghai, China’s largest city, were ending. Many residents rushed out into the streets to walk around outdoors for the first time in months, while others packed their bags to get out of the city as fast as they could, knowing that lockdowns could return at any moment. For those allowed to leave their homes, in order to travel and participate in society, they must take a PCR test every 72 hours, and carry their ID code on their cell phones wherever they go. If they lose their cell phone, they reportedly cannot even return home. Hundreds of thousands of residents still remain in lockdowns, including many who had just been allowed out on June 1st but are prisoners again in their own homes, simply because someone in their neighborhood tested positive for COVID. In one province of China, over 1 million bank customers had their accounts emptied, losing everything, because their bank was allegedly accused of fraud. Much of this is being censored inside of China. We have put together a short video with reports from inside China.

Read More…


Norway to Track All Supermarket Purchases

June 8, 2022 7:32 pm

People living in Norway are used to big government. But the latest news coming out of Oslo is a surprising new step down the road of data collection that not everyone is happy with. Statistics Norway (SSB) is the state-owned entity responsible for collecting, producing and communicating statistics related to the economy, population and society at national, regional and local levels. Because everything about an individual living in Norway is linked to their fødselnummer (birth number), SSB already knows where you live, what you earn and what’s on your criminal record. However, according to a report by NRK, they now want to know where you shop, and what you buy.

Read More…



Michael Every//

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

 

end

7. OIL ISSUES//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA

Trafigura CEO Warns Of “Parabolic” Blowoff Top In Crude As Worst Of Energy Crisis Just Ahead 

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 01:25 PM

One of the world’s largest independent energy merchants – Trafigura, which trades hundreds of billions of dollars in commodities every year, warned crude oil prices could catapult to $150 or more, in what could be an epic blowoff top

Jeremy Weir, chief executive of the commodity trader, told the FT Global Boardroom conference on Tuesday that energy markets are in a critical situation… I really think we have a problem for the next six months . . . once it gets to these parabolic states, markets can move and they can spike quite a lot.”

Weir believes oil prices could catapult prices to $150 a barrel or higher this summer due to several factors, including Europe’s embargo on imported Russian oil, soaring demand for fuel in the US, and China restarting its economy after COVID lockdowns. Global demand for crude will remain robust, as he said tight global refining capacity would push diesel and gasoline prices higher. 

The forecast of $150 is just 22% higher than Brent crude’s current prices as of Wednesday evening of $123. 

Weir’s warning about higher prices comes as other top executives and analysts at major banks shift their crude oil price targets higher than the all-time peak of $147, last observed right before the 2008 financial crisis. 

Last week, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a “hurricane” might hit the economy with the Federal Reserve aggressively tightening interest. He said disruptions in oil markets could send oil prices to $150 or even $175 per barrel. 

This week, Goldman Sachs’ Damien Courvalin told clients they raised their peak summer oil price target from $125 to $140 while also hiking its oil price targets for the rest of 2022 and 2022 by $10 higher than before.

Higher prices will trigger demand destruction and be the primary rebalancing mechanism for oil markets as President Biden’s draining of the SPR at a rate of 1 million barrels per day, which is the emptiest it has been in 20 years, has yet to arrest prices. 

“If we see very high energy prices for a period of time we will eventually see demand destruction,” Weir said. “It will be problematic to sustain these levels and continue global growth.”

Meanwhile, at $120 a barrel, the latest EIA data shows the four-week rolling average of implied gasoline demand rose, catching up to the five-year average as Memorial Day travel accounts for higher consumption. 

What this means is that much higher prices are needed for demand destruction … and with higher prices comes economic turmoil; as we outlined, the OECD, The World Bank, and IMF have all cut global economic forecasts this year and raised inflation estimates due to soaring energy inflation, in other words, stagflation could be emerging. 

So what the head of Trafigura is warning about when he says the oil market could reach a “parabolic state” is the likelihood of a blowoff top. The only question: How high are oil prices about to spike?

Massive U.S. oil refinery on track to shut down amid fuel shortages, record prices

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:03 AM (7 minutes ago)
to

Refinery realities
https://www.wnd.com/2022/06/massive-u-s-oil-refinery-track-shut-amid-fuel-shortages-record-prices/

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA/PAKISTAN

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0734 UP 0.0017 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 133.84   DOWN 0.614 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2544 UP   0.0004

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 24.84 POINTS UP 0.76%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  DOWN 145.54 PTS OR 0.66%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.45%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 145.54 PTS OR 0.66%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.84 PTS UP 0.76% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  1.45% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 12.24 OR 0.04%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1845.20

silver:$21.93

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 102.32  DOWN 24  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.64%  UP 15  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.253% UP 1     AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.62%// UP 15   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.62  UP 16   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.432%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0657 DOWN  49    or 49 basis points

USA/Japan: 134.05 DOWN 0.441  OR YEN UP  144  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2523 DOWN 0.0017 OR 17  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0092 OR 92 BASIS pts  to 1.2525

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.6923  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.6945

TURKISH LIRA:  17.23  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.253

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.049% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.188 UP 1 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 102.96 UP 41   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 109.62 PTS OR 1.45%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 250.59  POINTS OR 1.73%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 90.50 PTS OR 1.40% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 118.40 OR 1.34%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 444.41 PTS OR  1.83%

WTI Oil price 120.64   12: EST

Brent Oil:  121.93  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  59.62  UP  1/4        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.432

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0615 DOWN   .01022   OR  DOWN 102 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2497 down .0042  or  42 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.35 DOWN .112//YEN UP 11 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2694 up 01398 (CDN dollar down 140 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 121.05

Brent OIL:  122.81

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.046 up 2 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.171  DOWN 1  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 16.90

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  59.35 UP  0.05/100/ ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 639.10 PTS OR 1.94%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 345.35 PTS OR 2.74%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 26.05 UP 2.09 PTS (8.72)%

GLD: 172.23 DOWN 0.52 PTS OR 0.30%

SLV/ 19.97 DOWN .38 PTS OR 1.87%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Slump, Dollar Jumps Ahead Of CPI ‘Event Risk’

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Weakness in stocks today – after an ugly claims print, ECB hawkishness-ish, and anxiety ahead of tomorrow’s ‘event risk maximizing’ CPI print. Nasdaq was down over 2.5% and the S&P close behind, down over 2%. Stocks closed on their lows…

…took the US majors into the red for the week led by the S&P and Nasdaq…

Does anyone else get the sense that this directional thrust ahead of tomorrow is just setting us up for a huge reversal higher on CPI?

Financials and Tech were the hardest hit today (both down over 2%) but everything was down and only energy stocks are higher on the week…

Ahead of the CPI print, The S&P broke out (to the downside) of the 4080-4160 range in the S&P having traded sideways since the initial surge off the “Bostic ‘Pause'” short-squeeze…

Further SpotGamma expects volatility to increase into Tuesday due to the large VIX expiration positions and expiration on Wednesday AM (reminder that the last day that 6/15 VIX index options trade is on Tuesday).

It appears equity risk protection was in demand heading into tomorrow as VIX spiked back above 26…

Treasuries were mixed today with the short-end notably underperforming (2Y+4bps, 30Y-1bp) but all yields are still higher on the week (and the yield curve flatter)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied up to its highest since May 23rd on the back of EUR weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

After Lagarde offered up some ‘whatever it takes’ love to the PIIGS – as fragmentation fears rise – the Euro responded by tumbling top its weakest against the dollar since May 22…

Source: Bloomberg

The ECB’s comments pushed market expectations to 150bps of rate-hikes by year-end (US markets are still pricing in 200bps of rate-hikes from The Fed left this year)…

Source: Bloomberg

European fragmentation is starting to loom and ‘Italeave’ risk is back being of note (not high just non-negligible)…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was relatively quiet for once (amid the more chaotic moves in stocks) with Bitcoin basically flat on the day, hovering around $30,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was down very modestly, despite the big jump in the dollar, but held on to the $1850 level…

Oil was slightly lower on the day but WTI held above $121…

Nominal gas prices hit $5 for the first time in history today, but we note, inflation-adjusted, we remain below the 2008 peak… for now…

Source: Bloomberg

US NatGas prices rebounded after last night’s tumble (on the Freeport LNG terminal fire) but remain lower while EU NatGas prices are notably higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, SpotGamma notes that going into tomorrow’s CPI print, the options market is very balanced. They base this from our Risk Reversal indicator shown below, and the VVIX. This -0.07 reading is telling us that the S&P skew is pretty neutral and we expect a shift in this out of next week.

So, do you feel lucky punk?

Will CPI come in hotter than expected.. or not?

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING/

II)USA data

Labor Market On Edge: Jobless Claims Jump Most Since Last July, Hit 5 Month High

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 08:58 AM

Just days after we reported that “Real-Time Indicators Show The Labor Market Just Cratered“, suggesting that the last pillar propping up the US economy (with GDP now just 0.9% away from a full-blown technical recession) was about to crack…

… the BLS reported that May payrolls actually came in stronger than expected, largely thanks to very generous seasonal adjustments and more than one political tap on the shoulder. This prompted many to ask what is going on: are real time indicators flawed and is the black-box model that is the BLS’s politicized, subjective, often flawed methodology the correct one?

Moments ago we got a strong hint which way “reality” lies, when we got the latest jobless claims report and it confirmed that indeed, the jobs market is cracking, with initial claims jumping from 203K to 229K…

… which was the biggest jump in claims since last July…

…  the latest troubling confirmation that the best days for the US jobs market are now behind us and that the BLS has a tough uphill climb as it seeks to represent the monthly payrolls data correctly. We are confident they will get it done in time for the Jackson Hole symposium, around the time the US will officially slide into a recession.

The breakdown by state did not show any notable outliers, with Missouri seeing the biggest increase in claims and Oklahoma, the biggest decline.

That said, even though the labor market has peaked, there is clearly still a ways to go before the US jobs market is in freefall – the bogey that the Fed needs to see before it halts its tightening – although now that weakness is starting to set in, keep a close eye on more reports of corporate mass layoffs.

Enough of those, and even the BLS will have to admit that the final pillar propping up the US economy has just turned red.

END

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

END.

iii)a.  USA economic stories

For The First Time Ever, The National Average Gas Price Is $5

THURSDAY, JUN 09, 2022 – 02:46 PM

GasBuddy reports the national average for gasoline at the pump has hit $5 per gallon, setting a new record in the U.S., as fuel inflation shows no signs of abating amid severe bottlenecks in refining and robust demand as peak driving season is underway. 

BREAKING: According to GasBuddy, the national average has reached $5 per gallon,” Petroleum analysis expert at GasBuddy, Patrick De Haan tweeted Thursday morning. 

And we all know who to blame for it…

Bear in mind though, that adjusted for inflation, today’s $5 gas price is still below the record high from 2008 of around $5.50…

We detailed this week how America’s pain at the pump is because U.S. refining capacity is structurally short and down 1 million barrels from April 2020 (a month after the lockdowns began) to 17.95 million bpd as of June. 

The worsening refining bottleneck, especially in the U.S., was explained by Mike Wirth, the CEO of oil giant Chevron, who recently told Bloomberg TV that there’s not enough refining capacity to meet the demand for gasoline and diesel because no new refinery will ever be built in the U.S. again. 

With no relief in sight, higher fuel prices at the pump have been devastating for Americans’ wage purchasing power — an hour of labor for the average American now buys less than 7 gallons of gasoline… the lowest since 2014 and just a third of its peak (at around 17 gallons) in April 2020. Note that with the current $31.95 average hourly earning rate, a $6 gas price (approximately $160 crude), filling up  your car would never have cost more in terms of labor.

Slowing economic growth and elevated inflation, a recipe for stagflation, have resulted in another plunge in President Biden’s polling numbers as his administration fails to tame energy inflation. 

Releasing one million bpd every day from the SPR has yet to arrest prices at the pump because of the bottleneck in refining. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has shifted crude oil targets from $125 to $140 a barrel

There are limited signs of demand destruction (at $120 a barrel): A four-week rolling average of implied gasoline demand rose, catching up to the five-year average for this time of year as Memorial Day travel accounts for higher consumption. 

And the Biden admin’s recent explanation that America should stop whining because it’s worse in Europe could be over soon as U.S. gas prices are rapidly catching up to U.K.’s petrol prices…

Higher prices will trigger demand destruction and be the primary rebalancing mechanism for oil markets, indicating pump prices on a national level still need to go higher

iii b USA//inflation stories/log jams etc/

Inflation is the top financial concern for Americans

(zerohedge)

Inflation Is The Top Financial Concern For Americans; New Poll Finds

WEDNESDAY, JUN 08, 2022 – 04:40 PM

A recent survey by Gallup discovered that inflation has become the top financial concern for Americans, surpassing other issues like low wages and housing costs.

While this result may not be too surprising, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu notes that it is interesting to see how today’s concerns compare to that of previous years. For reference, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has grown 8.3% between April 2021 and April 2022, representing a near 40-year high.

Poll Results

Results were collected in April 2022 and are based on the responses of over 1,000 U.S. adults. In this case, the specific question was: What is the most important financial problem facing your family today?

Percentage of respondents. Includes the top five categories, based on April 2022 results.

Based on these results, we can see that inflation began to gain momentum in early 2021. Rising gas prices, which are a significant contributor to overall inflation, also popped up in 2021.

Implications

Significantly fewer Americans feel confident about their financial situation due to the rising cost of living. This was captured in the same Gallup survey referenced above.

Percentage of respondents who say their personal financial situation is improving.

The largest decreases were seen among the upper and lower income groups.

Upper income families tend to own more financial assets like stocks and bonds. An inflationary environment, especially when combined with rising interest rates, can eat away at the returns generated by these assets, which could explain this cohort’s drop in optimism.

Lower income families, on the other hand, are more likely to be struggling already. In fact, a 2017 report found that six in 10 Americans don’t have $500 in savings. With this in mind, it’s easy to see how an increase in the price of food or gas could cause worry.

END

iv)swamp stories

King REPORT

The King Report June 9, 2022 Issue 6777Independent View of the News
We erred in yesterday’s missive in writing that traders fear the BoE could be more hawkish than expected today.  It’s the ECB that is on the clock.
 
ECB Will Herald New Policy Era with Path to Fight Inflation
Officials led by Lagarde meet Wednesday-Thursday in Amsterdam
    The European Central Bank will begin a new era of monetary policy this week as officials… pivot to confront the threat of inflation running out of control… with prices rising at a record pace, President Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will end trillions of euros of asset purchases and cement a path to exiting eight years of negative interest rates… an end to sub-zero policy could materialize as soon as July…  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/ecb-will-herald-new-policy-era-with-rate-path-to-fight-inflation#xj4y7vzkg
 
China’s tech stocks jump, with the Hang Seng gauge rising as much as 4.3%, as Beijing approves new video games after its internet crackdown https://t.co/EymPOytzDZ
 
Elon Musk Twitter deal financing put on hold over threats: report – The SpaceX and Tesla CEO said Twitter has resisted requests to provide information on spam, fake accounts  https://t.co/IVIKkZxFhR
 
@charliebilello: How is US consumer spending holding up despite inflation outpacing wage gains for 13 straight months? 1) Americans are saving less: 4.4% savings rate at lowest levels since 2008.
2) Americans are borrowing more: 7.5% increase in credit over the past year is largest since 2011. https://t.co/ju40ZRsLLg
 
@EPBResearch: Housing demand is imploding with applications for new home purchases declining at a 39% annualized rate. You have to go back to April 2020 to find a sharper decline.
https://twitter.com/EPBResearch/status/1534497125530226689
 
ESMs did what they have been doing for months.  After tumbling into the NYSE open, someone forced ESMs from the daily low of 4128.25 at 9:31 ET to the daily high of 4160.00 at 9:52 ET.
 
Then, ESMs sank to 4135.00 at 10:16 ET.  Manipulators quickly forced ESMs to 4155.50 at 10:34 ET.  Selling resumed; ESMs sank to 4138.25 at 11:02 ET.  But someone has been determined to force ESMs higher for the Month of Joe.  So, ESMs were pushed to 4157.75 at 11:16 ET.
 
There were six large, wicked ESM swings in less than two hours!
 
The DJTA got slammed during early US trading, declining as much as 3%.  Investors dumped transport stocks because WTI Oil hit $122.06.  Gasoline rallied sharply, too.  Natural gas jumped as much as 3.5%.
 
ESMs and stocks were pushed higher for the 11:30 ET European close.  They peaked at 11:40 ET, with ESMs hitting 4158.75.  They then sank to 4147.75 at 11:44 ET.  at 12:20 ET, ESMs sank, hitting 4117.00 at 12:43 ET.  WIT Oil hit 123.18 at 13:11 ET.  Remember, oil peaked near $130 on March 7.  It then plunged to 102.58 due to The Big Guy’s record SPR depletion.  There is little that Joe or his handlers can do now to stop oil and gasoline from trucking higher.
 
USMs sank after a disappointing 10-year note auction: 3.03% vs 3.018% WI.
 
98 counterparties parked $2.14T at the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility.  The Fed is serious about inflation?
 
After a modest Noon Balloon, ESMs sank near 13:30 ET, falling to a new low of 4108.00 at 13:38 ET.  After the expected quick rebound, ESMs and stocks sank anew when the WH Press Sec said the WH expects Friday’s CPI number “to be elevated.”  ESMs bottomed at 4105.50 at 14:36 ET.
 
The pre-last hour rally for the expected late manipulation ended quickly, at 14:45 ET.  ESMs then sank to a new low of 4105.25 at 15:07 ET.  The late manipulation pushed ESMs to 4126.50 at 15:33 ET.  ESMs dropped to 4109.50 at 15:53 ET.  ESMs and stocks then traded sideways into the close.
 
U.S. SEC chief unveils plan to overhaul Wall Street stock trading
Would require trading firms to directly compete to execute trades from retail investors to boost competition… the new SEC rules would mandate market makers disclose more data around the fees these firms earn and the timing of trades for the benefit of investors…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-street-regulator-spell-out-push-overhaul-stock-trading-sources-2022-06-08/
 
BBG’s @sjcasey: US natural gas prices just tanked after reports of an explosion at the Freeport LNG export terminal: (Halts exports of LNG)
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Yet another blatant ESM manipulation after an early US equity tumble
 
Negative aspects of previous session
The US stock market is being gamed
Bonds declined sharply
Energy commodities soared again; the DJTA got clobbered
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Who is manipulating ESMs, and for whose benefit?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4127.70
Previous session High/Low4160.14; 4107.20
 
The NY Post’s @karol: A man was arrested outside of Brett Kavanaugh’s residence around 1:45am last night. The man had a gun and said he was there to kill Kavanaugh. He was taken into custody without incident.  I can confirm the man taken into custody outside of Brett Kavanaugh’s house last night is a 26-year-old white male with a California driver’s license. Previous address in Seattle.  The suspect is Nicholas John Roske of Simi Valley, California.
 
@ggreenwald: He was angry about the Court’s leaked ruling in Roe and the lack of gun control, and reportedly sought to kill Justice Kavanaugh in response.  It’s vital that we know which cable hosts he likes and which magazines he reads so we know who radicalized him and is to blame for this:
(In Rules for RadicalsRule 4: Make opponents live up to their own book of rules.)
 
Dem Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is blocking the House from voting on a bill that would provide police protection to Supreme Court Justices.
 
@SteveGuest: FLASHBACK: Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer threatened U.S. Supreme Court Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. “You have released the whirlwind and you will pay the price! You won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions!”
https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1534546718724866051
 
RNCResearch: FLASHBACK to May 10: “Are you comfortable with protests that we saw outside the homes of Supreme Court justices over the weekend?”  CHUCK SCHUMER: “Yes”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1534588292456497155
 
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: I wonder if @chuckschumer is still proud of personally threatening Supreme Court Justices now that people with guns are showing up at their houses to kill them.
 
@SteveGuest: FLASHBACK: Biden Admin encouraged protests outside of Justices’ homes.
Former Press Sec Jen Psaki: “I know that there is an outrage … about protests that have been peaceful to date and we certainly continue to ENCOURAGE that outside of judges’ homes.”
https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1534549172564762624
 
GOP @RepJeffDuncan: It’s a crime to protest outside of a Supreme Court Justice’s home, but Biden’s DOJ refused to enforce the law and Biden avoided condemning (and even encouraged) these protests.
 
@RuthSentUs yesterday afternoon: We’re protesting peacefully at his home again tonight.
 
GOP Sen @TomCottonAR: If AG Garland continues to allow leftists to unlawfully harass Justices at their homes, the next Congress should take matters into its own hands with impeachment.
 
GOP @repdarrellissa: Is anyone surprised that the dangerous rhetoric of this White House, Sen. Schumer and Democrat special interests could incite deadly violence against Supreme Court justices and their families?
 
GOP @RepHartzler: Senator Schumer told Justice Kavanaugh that he will “pay the price” for decisions Democrats don’t like. And he is leading the Senate? Reprehensible.
 
GOP Sen. @tedcruz: The Biden admin encouraged protests outside of justices’ homes.  Schumer threatened: “You have released the whirlwind & you will pay the price!”  Now a would-be assassin went to the home of a Supreme Court JusticeBiden and the Dems need to stop their irresponsible and incendiary rhetoric on Roe and condemn the violence coming from their supporters
 
Mitch McConnell Blasts Democrats’ ‘Unhinged, Reckless, Apocalyptic Rhetoric’ for Failed Assassination Attempt on Justice Kavanaugh   https://www.mediaite.com/politics/mitch-mcconnell-blasts-democrats-unhinged-reckless-apocalyptic-rhetoric-for-failed-assassination-attempt-on-justice-kavanaugh/
 
@MonicaCrowley: Serious death threats directed at Supreme Court Justices because of a despicable leak of a draft opinion – and yet we still don’t know the name of the leaker. For the Left, the ideological war trumps everything, including human life.
 
The Kavanaugh stalker called the police on himself and said he is suicidal.  He told the FBI that he intended to kill Kavanaugh and then himself to give his life meaning.  FBI report: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22056069/roskenicholas.pdf
 
So Long as Dobbs Remains Undecided, The Lives of the Justices Are at Risk
The Dobbs 5 should immediately issue an unsigned per curiam order, with an opinion to follow, even over the Chief Justice’s objection… Why is there a delay? So Roberts can take yet another ill-fated attempt to pick off one or two votes? A real leader would have put aside his quixotical quest for balance. Every day that passes, as the Chief haggles over votes, a target remains on the backs of his colleagues…
https://reason.com/volokh/2022/06/08/so-long-as-dobbs-remains-undecided-the-lives-of-the-justices-are-at-risk/
 
No Democrat, including Biden, condemned the planned assassination; a WH statement did.
 
‘I don’t blame myself’: Merkel defends legacy on Russia and Ukraine
Former German Chancellor claims Ukraine might have faced a full-blown war with Russia sooner had she not intervened with controversial decisions…
    Merkel also said she had “at no time given in to illusions” that Germany’s Wandel durch Handel (change through trade) policy would really change Putin’s behavior. “I was not naive,” Merkel said, arguing that she repeatedly warned allies that Putin “wants to destroy the EU because he sees it as a precursor to NATO.” However, she provided no answer why, if she believed in Putin’s sinister intentions, she simultaneously championed a policy that made Germany increasingly dependent on Russian gas imports…  https://www.politico.eu/article/merkel-defends-legacy-russia-ukraine-interview/
 
@MrKovalenko: “I can only rely on my memory, if something turns out to be different, I can live with that,” she said in 2013 for @derspiegel. Of course, this lady who was grown in Soviet Eastern Germany & spent time in Soviet Donetsk city, won’t admit that she helped Putin.
 
MSNBC: “It appears as though the president did have a slight trip there” (Ascending Air Force One on trip to CA to appear on Jimmy Kimmel Live)  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1534568208581242880
 
@FoxNews: CNN media analyst on Kimmel interview: Biden needs ‘exposure’ that isn’t too ‘challenging for him’  https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1534570963932794881
 
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI): On the issue of gas prices, I drove my electric vehicle from Michigan to here last weekend and went by every gas station and it didn’t matter how high it was.”
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1534205274529087488
 
Today – Traders will adjust to the ECB and Lagarde’s ensuing press conference before the NYSE open.  ESMs and stocks tumbled early in the US again; but the bottom did not appear after 14:30 ET and the late manipulation reversed during the final minutes.  This is a negative for bulls.
 
If the ECB is more hawkish than expected and stocks react negatively, the key thereafter will be the presence or absence of the force or forces that keep manipulating ESMs higher after a negative narrative and/or psychology appears.  Unless someone knows the US May CPI report early, there is no reason to carry significant trading positions into the CPI report release.  Ergo, the last hour of NYSE trading equities could be soft – unless stocks were substantially lower before then.  ESMs are +1.00 at 20:30 ET.
 
Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 207k, Continuing Claims 1.305m; ECB Communique 7:45 ET, Lagarde Press Conference 8:30 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4224; 100-day MA: 4318; 150-day MA: 4439; 200-day MA: 4446
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,389; 100-day MA: 33,874; 150-day MA: 34,529; 200-day MA: 34,6541
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4987.97 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4359.32 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3992.29 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4154.27 triggers a buy signal
 
San Francisco DA ousted over soft-on-crime policies, dealing blow to liberal justice agenda
Chesa Boudin was toppled by a campaign fueled by crime fatigue, funded by business groups and supported by ex- prosecutors – The recall… was certain to resonate far beyond the iconic liberal California cityslowing a progressive campaign nationwide to seek more leniency in prosecutions.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/san-francisco-da-ousted-over-soft-crime-policies-dealing-blow-liberal
 
Progressive San Francisco DA recalled by voters in one of nation’s most liberal cities https://t.co/IVTHXvqygZ
 
@JonathanTurley: Boudin blamed “right-wing billionaires” for his defeat. It was an ironic criticism given his support from billionaire George Soros.
 
Pittsburgh restaurant closes amid ‘uncontrollable’ spike in violence https://t.co/ds2r4mTwxD
 
@DeAngelisCorey: Iowa House District 88 Republican Primary Election Results: Dustin Hite:* 43.0%,
Helena Hayes: 57.0% – Dustin Hite was the incumbent, chair of the House Education Committee, backed by the teachers union, and opposed a school choice bill. Helena Hayes supports school choice.
     Iowa House District 37 Republican Primary Election Results: Jon Thorup: * 29.8%, Barb Kniff McCulla: 70.2% – Jon Thorup was the incumbent and opposed a school choice bill. Barb Kniff McCulla supports school choice.
 
@TwoHeadedBoy98: This is a pretty big deal: Incumbent Dennis Bush has lost to challenger Zach Dieken (Iowa District 5 GOP Primary) who was endorsed by Gov. Reynolds over the one-term Bush because of the #VoucherBill. Bush had spoken out against the GOP plan.
 
@iowapolitics: Iowa House Republican incumbents who were against the GOP governor’s school choice proposal were primaried…and generally lost tonight. Sounds like the base has spoken.
 
@megbasham: According to the most comprehensive Department of Education study, roughly 10 percent of K-12 public school students experience sexual misconduct at the hands of a school employee. How much is the media writing about this?  https://t.co/MLmmtaMyj9
 
@libsoftiktok: A San Francisco middle school brought a drag queen to perform for students today https://twitter.com/NickiJizz/status/1534306290402484224/video/1
   The drag queen’s name is Nicole Jizzington or Jizz for short. You can’t make this up… He was so proud of himself that he “had them kids losing it”  https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1534329026575228930
    And… it’s gone! But not before I saved it :). Why isn’t @NickiJizz proud of her drag performance where she “had them kids [middle schoolers] losing it ?  Tweet deleted, blocked, protected tweets. Like clockwork. They always run when you shine a light on them.
 
Cannabis and the Violent Crime Surge – Op-ed in WSJ
Heavy marijuana use among youths is leading to more addiction and antisocial behavior.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cannabis-and-the-violent-crime-surge-marijuana-pot-use-thc-shootings-psychosis-mental-11654540197
 
Polls show inflation is the top issue for voters, followed by crime.  ‘Election integrity’ is the fastest rising issue.  Recent elections show that education (children) is a huge issue, especially for women.
 
Former U.S. Congressman and Philadelphia Political Operative Pleads Guilty to Election Fraud Charges  https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/former-us-congressman-and-philadelphia-political-operative-pleads-guilty-election-fraud
 
GOP Rep. @Jim_Jordan: New whistleblowers allege the FBI is “purging” conservatives at the Bureau.
One agent? A decorated war veteran who served in Iraq and Kuwait. The FBI had the audacity to question the whistleblower’s loyalty to the country!  (Also, the FBI is concealing info about Jan. 6!)
https://twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1534364996116926465
 
@RepAndyBiggsAZ: Today, during an Oversight hearing, Democrats used an 11-year-old child who witnessed the Uvalde shooting as a political prop to advance their gun confiscation agenda.  They literally made her relive the trauma after she said she had PTSD from the experience. Despicable
https://twitter.com/RepAndyBiggsAZ/status/1534599927166271488
 
ABC: U.S. solar manufacturers are considering legal challenges after President Joe Biden declared a two-year pause on tariffs for solar imports from Southeast Asia
Biden also invoked the Defense Production Act on Monday as the White House moved to jumpstart solar installations that have been slowed or abandoned amid a Commerce Department inquiry into possible trade violations involving Chinese products…
    “By taking this unprecedented – and potentially illegal – action, (Biden) has opened the door wide for Chinese-funded special interests to defeat the fair application of U.S. trade law,” Rashid said…
    A Biden administration official, who asked not to be identified to discuss internal deliberations, said Biden’s decision was driven by White House climate adviser Gina McCarthy and climate envoy John Kerry, along with Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-solar-companies-weigh-challenge-biden-pause-tariffs-85243467
 
‘Five people presumed dead after military aircraft carrying nuclear material’ crashes in California
The crash happened near Glamis, 30 miles north of the Mexican border and 150 miles east of San Diego
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10898177/Four-dead-one-missing-military-aircraft-carrying-nuclear-material-crashes-California.html
 
Migrant caravan organizer says Mexico has offered work visas as numbers surge
The organizers estimate there are 12,000 migrants in the caravan
    Caravan leader Luis Villigran told Fox News that Mexican officials have told him it will begin issuing 1,000 temporary work visas a day to the migrants in the caravan… While that would grant the migrants the ability to work in Mexico, it would also give them the ability to travel freely throughout the country — meaning that many of them will likely continue their journey to the U.S.-Mexico border and seek to gain entry to the U.S…  https://t.co/eV9TFCIZvx
 
Protestors appeared at Justice Kavanaugh’s home last night.  A squad of police protected the house; but NO protestors were arrested though they violated federal law.  Liberal privilege keeps making new highs.
https://twitter.com/ArtValley818_/status/1534682140473905152
 
@Julio_Rosas11: The pro-abortion group made their way over to Chief Justice Roberts’ home. Again, police were outside the house.  https://twitter.com/Julio_Rosas11/status/1534685393655943171
 
Once again, US laws are not being enforced.
 
Biden admin fights giving $230M settlement to victims of 2017 Texas church massacre https://trib.al/LBfHjTt

Greg Hunter interviewing

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