JUNE 22a/GOLD UP 15 CENTS TO $1836.45//SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TO $21.48//PLATINUM DOWN $11.15 TO $931.65/PALLADIUM DOWN $13.50 TO $1867.45//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURIES/VACCINE IMPACT/UKRAINE VS RUSSIA//LITHUANIA VS KALININGRAD: A BIG PROBLEM//HONG KONG DOLLAR VS USA PEG BLOWING UP PRESENTING PROBLEMS FOR CHINA//THE ECB EMERGENCY MEETING IS CREATING AN EMERGENCY ITSELF//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1836.45 UP $0.15 

SILVER: $21.48 DOWN 14 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1837.70

SILVER: $21.40

Bitcoin morning price:  $20,448 DOWN 689

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,051  DOWN 1086  

Platinum price: closing DOWN $11.15 to $931.65

Palladium price; closing DOWN $13.50  at $1867.45

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX EXCHANGE:EXCHANGE: 0

COMEX  0

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan:  xxx/55

_____________________________________________________________________________________ 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT 55  NOTICE(S) FOR 5500 Oz//0  TONNES)

total notices so far: 23,796 contracts for 2,379,600 oz (74.0155 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

6 NOTICE(S) FILED 30,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  1787 :  for 8,935,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $.15

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 547.166 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED  1768 CONTRACTS TO 145,356   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY  $0.09 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.09) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS.  

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 6 CONTRACTS OR 30,000 OZ//NEW STANDING:  9,140,000 / //  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -236

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 15 days, total 11,642,  contracts:  58.210 million oz  OR 3.866 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (776 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 58.21 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 58.21 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A  VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF  1768 DESPITE OUR TINY  $0.09 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 640 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 7.635 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 9,140,000 OZ //  .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2644 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 13.220 MILLION  OZ WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 6  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  30,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 2466 CONTRACTS  TO 500,276 AND FURTHER NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -171 CONTRACTS.

.

THE  FAIR GAIN IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR SMALL FALL IN PRICE OF $2.00//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 69.26 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  3900 OZ E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING:  74.911TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF   $2.00 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3222  OI CONTRACTS 10.02 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED  746 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 500,276

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3222, WITH 2461 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 761 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3222 CONTRACTS OR 10.02 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (761) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (2461,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3222 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE. AT 69.26 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P  JUMP  OF 3900 OZ//NEW STANDING: 74/9611 TONNES /  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

54.393 CONTRACTS OR 5,439,300 OZ OR 169.18  TONNES 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3626 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 169.18 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  169.18/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.76% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 169.18 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 1768 CONTRACT OI TO 145,356 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 640 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 640  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1768 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 640 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2408   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.04 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF  $0.09 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 39.52 PTS OR 1.20%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 551.25 PTS OR 2.56%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 96.76 OR 0.57%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.28%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7144    /Oil DOWN TO 104.55 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 110.12 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7144 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7185: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2461 CONTRACTS TO 500,276 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $2.00  IN GOLD PRICING  TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (743 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 743 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :743 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  743 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED  TOTAL OF 3222  CONTRACTS IN THAT 743 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 2461  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $2.00.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JUNE   (74.911),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.911 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $2.00) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 3302 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (74.911 TONNES)

WE HAD 2768 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3222 CONTRACTS OR 3222  OZ OR 10.02 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 82,105/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  188,107  /poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JUNE ’22 COMEX GOLD //JUNE 22

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz140,671.700 oz
Brinks
Int Delaware
Malca
Manfra
4266 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today55  notice(s)
5500 OZ
.1717 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)304 contracts 
30400 oz
0.9455 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month23,796 notices
2,379,600 OZ
74.012 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits

total deposits: nil oz

4 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks  514.470 oz 16  kilobars

ii) Out of Manfra  1297.111 oz 

iii) Out of Malca:  138,213.149 oz (4230 kilobars)

iv)Int Delaware  643.02 oz 20 kilobars

total withdrawal: 140,671.700  oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 7/dealer to customer/

Brinks, 10,528.121 oz

HSBC  3691.834

Int Delaware: 1639.650

JPMorgan 16,982.719 oz

Loomis:  867.077 oz

Malca 18,330.377 oz

Manfra: 19,234.420 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.

For the front month of JUNE we have an  oi of 359 contracts having lost 39 contracts

We had 0 notices filed on FRIDAY so we LOST 39   contracts or an additional 3900 oz will  stand for gold in this very active month of June 

July has a LOSS OF 27 OI to stand at 1601

August has a GAIN of 815 contracts UP to 413,632 contracts

We had 55 notice(s) filed today for  NIL 550oz FOR THE JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 55 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,796) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JUNE 359  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 55 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,410,000 OZ  OR 75.082 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of JUNE. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices filed so far (23,689) x 100 oz+   (359)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (55} x 100 oz} which equals 2,410,000 oz standing OR 74.911 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JUNE.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  74.911 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A JUNE (  ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,419,784.828 oz   75.26 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  33,507,434.664 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,231,369.943  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,276,064.721 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 14,921,555.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

SILVER/COMEX/JUNE 22

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,347,016.200  oz
CNT
Delaware
Int Delaware
JPMorgan
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1234,405.289 oz
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)6CONTRACT(S)30,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)19 contracts (95,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1809 contracts 9,045,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 3 deposit into the customer account

i) Into CNT  619,387.430 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 2044.759

iii) Into JPMorgan 612,973.100 oz

total deposit:  0    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 169,658 million oz/337.263 million =50.27% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 5

CNT  84,737.500 oz

Delaware 1056.600 oz

Int Delaware 58,516.300 oz

JPMorgan 600,331.800 oz

Manfra  602,374.000

total withdrawal  1,347,016.200         oz

 adjustments:  3 dealer to customer

Brinks  35,230.510 oz

Int Delaware 167,586.840 oz

JPMorgan 69,481.240 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 71.388 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 337.375 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI: 25 HAVING LOST 9 CONTRACTS. 

WE HAD 16 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 7 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 35,000 OZ WILL  STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE

DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 3055 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 45,422 CONTRACTS.

AUGUST GAINED 34 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1016

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 4365 CONTRACTS UP TO 81,375CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 6 for  30,000 oz

Comex volumes:35,247// est. volume today//   poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 87,824 contracts ( good )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1809 x 5,000 oz = 9,045,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(25) and the number of notices served upon today 6  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JUNE./2022 contract month: 1809 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (25)  – number of notices served upon today (6) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates 9,140,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.10: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.95//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

May 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.10/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP @$2.70: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.89./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1056.18 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

GLD INVENTORY: 1073.80 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 558.071 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ///

MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.515 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20.WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHDRAWAL OF .785 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 547.166 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Markets mixed to positive post FOMC – so far.

With U.S. markets closed on Monday for the new Juneteenth Federal holiday, to celebrate the emancipation and supposed freedom from oppression of racial minorities in the U.S., it has been difficult to yet judge the ongoing reaction from the decisions taken at last week’s FOMC meeting. To recap, up until the Friday prior, markets had been anticipating a 50 basis point Federal Funds interest rate rise in the Fed’s latest attempt to bring down inflation. Then came the release that day of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) which came in at a well-above-expectations 8.6% year-on-year, which many feel understates the real level.

Immediately the BLS figure was released, consensus expectations for the likely interest rate rise to be imposed at the forthcoming FOMC meeting a few days later moved up from 50 basis points to 75 basis points – some had even suggested 100 basis points. In the event the 75 basis point rise was the actual result as announced on the 15th at the end of the FOMC meeting.

One might have expected something of a stock market meltdown at such an announcement, and maybe a boost to precious metals prices, but this was not to be. Indeed, almost the reverse happened, perhaps boosted by Fed chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent presentation which served to play down some of the worst analyses. Indeed some of the anticipated fallout will have already been in the pipeline ahead of the meeting’s outcome.

Over the past couple of days since the U.S. holiday weekend, , on initial trade, stocks and bitcoin seemed to be moving higher on a surge of optimism – wholly unjustified in our opinion – while gold continued to weaken a little, although was quite volatile in its path. There has, though, been a bit of a turnaround in European trade this morning, with gold recovering and European stocks and bitcoin dipping again, but it remains to be seen whether this trend will follow through into the key U.S. markets today. We think it should as the true ramifications of the Fed’s moves sink in, but markets are fickle and prone to optimistic manipulation. Investors tend to believe what they want to believe.

There was little in Powell’s summary statement, in our opinion at least, that really promised much in the way of optimism. The Fed has an abysmal track record on predicting future inflation levels and one suspects that Powell’s suggestion that future 75 basis point increases would be unlikely should be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt. If the next CPI data release, due out on July 13th, to be followed by an FOMC meeting on the 26th and 27th, comes out at around, or higher than, June’s 8.6% year on year increase, then we would put the higher rate rise level as the more likely despite Powell’s apparent tentative insistence to the contrary.

Unless there is a swift, and seemingly at this time, unlikely, end to the Russia/Ukraine conflict, we suspect inflation will remain elevated, and possibly rise further, as the key elements in its rise – energy and food prices – are hugely impacted by the war and thus totally outside any Fed moves to try and control them. We had pointed this out ahead of the June release when we had predicted an inflation rise, contrary to mainstream and Fed optimism, and in our view the situation has not changed for the better since then. We are likely stuck with high headline inflation levels for many months yet to come.

True the year-on-year figures may start to fall from around October as it was from October last year that the big headline inflation levels started to be recorded. This will, no doubt, be seized upon by the optimists as showing that the Fed measures are beginning to take effect, but with headline inflation still likely to be excessive that will be small comfort to the consumer. Prices will remain high and whichever domestic currency you trade with will be unable to purchase what it used to. Such is inflation. It lowers the purchasing power of your cash and savings, and at the current rate these are going down fast!

Powell is predicting a ‘softish’ landing from the Fed’s moves. He has lost much of any economic forecasting credibility he may have had with his insistence for many months that any inflationary trends would be ’transitory’ and his ‘soft landing’ predictions may well be just as far off the mark. In our view the U.S., and much of the rest of the world, is heading for a recession, and a steep one at that. There is probably little the Fed, or other central banks can do to ward one off. There is a strong raft of opinion that thinks the only option that lies ahead is for the Fed, and other central banks, to return to Quantitative Easing to re-stimulate their respective economies before too long, but this has to be a recipe for ever increasing inflation – in the worst case scenario perhaps hyper- inflation and the end of the economic world as we know it.

Gold may be one of the only protectors under these circumstances, although one obviously hopes it doesn’t come to this, but it is as well to be prepared. So far though gold has not performed as expected but has shown signs of weakness in the face of rampant inflation, deteriorating economics and weaker equities, whereas we might have expected it to have performed rather better under such circumstances. But we still remain confident that its attributes in a recession-headed economy will at least lead to its role as a wealth protector come to the fore. We are not so confident on the other precious metals, though, as they are all much more dependent for their demand on growth in the global economy, which we feel may be in for a hiatus period.

22 Jun 2022

-END-

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The ‘washed-out’ silver futures market

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-06-21 21:00 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Craig Hemke
TF Metals Report
via Sprott Money, Toronto
Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Recent data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission suggests that Comex silver positioning is the most favorable since June 2019.

While this does not preclude more downside, it certainly suggests that any further price drops will be shallow.

So what we’re talking about here is the CFTC’s weekly commitment-of-traders reports that are surveyed at the Comex close each Tuesday and then reported 74 hours later, after the Comex close the following Friday. This data is therefore not made timely, nor is it suitable for trading. 

However, once you track the data for years as I have, you begin to notice discernible trends that can help you spot potential price highs and lows. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/The-Washed-Out-Silver-CoT-Craig-Hemke-June-21-2022

end

Chris Powell is certainly correct on this one:

(ChrisPowell/GATA)


After 15 years in mining he still says central banks leave gold alone

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-06-21 21:36Section: Daily Dispatches

9:48p ET Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Maybe it’s only what to expect from a stock-touting service, but today’s commentary by Alastair Ford, senior equities reporter for Proactive Investor in London, is disappointing all the same insofar as it comes from someone claiming 15 years of experience in the mining sector.

Ford was trying to say something nice about gold: That “given U.S. dollar strength, gold has considerably outperformed, which is another way of saying that over the past few months it has been broadly flat against a rising dollar.”   

But then as a reason for gold’s respectable performance, Ford added:

“There’s no hot money in gold, and there are no central bankers monkeying with supply.”

Good grief! 

“Central bankers monkeying with supply” has been the main influence on the gold price for decades now.

Has Ford never heard of the London Gold Pool, the International Monetary Fund’s gold sales, the surreptitious trading undertaken every month for its central bank members by the Bank for International Settlements, the bank’s actually advertising its secret interventions in the gold market, the Bank of England’s gold sales that were ridiculed as “Brown’s Bottom,” the March 1999 secret staff report of the International Monetary Fund explaining that central bank gold reserve accounting had to be camouflaged to conceal interventions, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s admission in testimony to Congress in July 1998 that “central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise,” and the incriminating public statements by a half dozen other central bankers?

GATA has summarized this documentation and more here —

https://gata.org/node/20925

— even as we’re sure we don’t know even half the substance of longstanding Western government gold price suppression policy.

Of course it’s easier to tout gold mining shares, as Proactive Investor does, if you don’t tell gold investors what they are up against. But telling them that central banks will not get in the way of their investments is aggressively dishonest and it hampers the exposure needed to liberate the gold market and realize full value from gold investments.

Ford’s commentary is headlined as erroneously as it could be — “Gold Proves Its Worth, Once Again, as the Only Asset Safe from the Meddling of Central Bankers” — and its posted at Proactive Investor here:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/985387/gold-proves-its-worth-once-again-as-the-only-asset-safe-from-the-meddling-of-central-bankers-985387.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //LITHIUM

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7144

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7185

HANG SANG CLOSED  DOWN551.25  PTS OR 2.33% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 96.76% OR 0.37%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  104.25/Euro FALLS TO 1.0519

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.234/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.055/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.907%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.03% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.03%…ALL BLOWING UP!!

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.88//

3j Gold at $1838.00 silver at: 21.49  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  0  & 65/100      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 53.12

3m oil into the 104 dollar handle for WTI and  110 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.23DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9648– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0151well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.201 DOWN 10  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.284  DOWN 11 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.33

Futures, Oil Tumble As Attention Turns To Coming Recession, Powell Senate Testimony

WEDNESDAY, JUN 22, 2022 – 07:52 AM

Tuesday’s euphoric market mood has U-turned into sheer despair with most of yesterday’s gains gone overnight as attention turns to the coming US recession (now made official by Bill “The Fed Should Crush Donald Trump” Dudley who just published an Op-Ed “The US Economy Is Headed for a Hard Landing“) and as traders await Jerome Powell before Senate testimony. S&P 500 futures declined 1.2%, down 45 points to 3,722 while Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.5% by 715 a.m. in New York, indicating more declines for heavyweight technology stocks, which have already been hammered by rising rates.  Treasury yields and oil both slumped while the broader commodity sector tipped back toward pre-war levels, as traders increasingly price in a recession.


Optimism evaporated that policy makers can achieve a soft landing as they navigate a course of aggressive monetary tightening to tame inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to reinforce the commitment to fighting price pressures when he speaks in front of US lawmakers Wednesday even as a growing number of banks warn that the Fed chair is pushing Biden’s economy into a recession. Previewing Powell’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee as part of the Fed’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report, DB economists write that they expect him to reiterate the same themes he gave at his post-meeting press conference last week, where he signaled that they’d likely be deciding between 50bps and 75bps at the July meeting. Fed funds futures are currently implying that another 75bps move is more likely, with +71.8bps currently priced in, but don’t forget that there’s still plenty yet to happen ahead of that meeting in just over a month, including the subsequent CPI release and jobs report for June, and as we found out at the last meeting, it’s not implausible that unexpected data releases throw the previous guidance off course.

“Overall, we have a very cautious outlook for equity markets and we would be sellers of all rallies,” said Marija Veitmane, senior strategist at State Street Global Markets. “We continue to see strong inflation and central banks determined to crush it, even if the price for that is economic slowdown.”

Meanwhile, fears about the economy spread to commodities, putting oil in line for a monthly loss: “Markets are flip-flopping between recession fears and inflation fears,” UBS Wealth Mgmt chief economist Paul Donovan said in a note. “Today it is recession fears.”

In premarket trading, major US technology and internet stocks were lower in premarket trading, poised to snap the two-session rising streak amid mounting concerns of a global recession. Stocks related to cryptocurrencies fell as the price of Bitcoin briefly slipped below $20,000 after rebounding strongly on Tuesday. Alibaba and other US-listed Chinese stocks pare losses in premarket trading after a Bloomberg News report that Jack Ma’s Ant may apply to become a financial holding company as soon as this month. Other notable premarket movers:

  • La-Z-Boy’s (LZB US) shares jumped as much as 8.9% with KeyBanc saying that the furniture maker’s sales and EPS remain strong. The company reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Precision BioSciences (DTIL US) shares jump as much as 40% in US premarket trading amid a collaboration and license agreement with Novartis effective June 15.
  • Ormat Technologies (ORA US) shares fell 4.6% in postmarket trading on Tuesday after the company said it will offer $350 million aggregate principal amount of Green Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 in a private offering to institutional buyers.
  • Equity Residential (EQR US) stock may be in focus as it was raised to outperform from sector perform at RBC on the view that the apartment owner is well placed to weather a downturn.
  • Keep an eye on Cigna (CI US) shares as Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal-weight. The brokerage also downgraded Anthem to equal-weight from overweight.
  • Watch Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG US) shares as they were downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Wells Fargo, which said there’s “just not much to get excited about” for the stock in the second half of the year.

US equities have been roiled in the past few months amid worries that aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed would spark an economic recession. The S&P 500 is in a bear market after a rout that erased almost $2 trillion from the benchmark last week, and is tracking declines of nearly 9% in June alone. Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said the central bank should raise rates as fast as it can without causing undue harm to financial markets or the economy. 

Elsewhere, Joe Biden plans call on Congress to enact a gasoline tax holiday to cool soaring pump prices and alleviate the pressure on consumers. The move is expected to do nothing at all for gas prices.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was down 1.6% after rallying for three days in a row; the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped as much as 2.3%, Italy’s FTSE MIB underperforms.  The FTSE 100 outperformed as the pound weakened after UK inflation rose to a fresh four-decade high in May after broad increases in the cost of everything from fuel and electricity to food and beverages. Risk assets slumped with most European cash equity indexes erasing the week’s gains as recession fears, hot inflation data and energy concerns weigh on sentiment. Miners, energy and autos lead broad losses across all Stoxx 600 sectors. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • European mining stocks sink as a selloff in iron ore worsened amid signs of weakening global demand, while steel shares were pressured by downgrades from JPMorgan. Rio Tinto dropped as much as 3.6%, Glencore -6.1%, Salzgitter -15%, ArcelorMittal -8.2%, Voestalpine -11%
  • Umicore shares plunged as much as 17% after the materials technology company announced plans to spend EU5b by 2026, “meaningfully” higher capital expenditure than Jefferies had expected.
  • Saipem shares tumble as much as 19% after the company set terms for a EU2b capital hike, offering about 2 billion new shares at EU1.013. The subscription period will run from June 27 through July 11, with the final results to be announced on July 15, according to terms seen by Bloomberg.
  • Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden and Swedish real estate peers added to months of declines as European equities resumed their selloff, with fresh concerns about the possibility of recession. SBB falls as much as 13%, Sagax -6%, Fabege -4%, Castellum -3.7%
  • Kone shares drop as much as 7.5% after the Finnish elevator manufacturer was downgraded at Goldman Sachs and Berenberg, which both cited headwinds from China and the impact of slowing economic growth.
  • Energy stocks are among the worst-performing sectors as oil slumps amid concerns about the US economy, while the Biden administration is set to step up its fight against higher gasoline prices. Shell declines as much as 4.6%, TotalEnergies -4.6%, Repsol -5.1%
  • Accor shares drop as much as 3.8% after the hospitality company said it entered into exclusive negotiations to sell a 10.8% stake in Ennismore for EU185m.
  • JD Sports shares gain as much as 5.2%. The company reported FY results that are in line overall with consensus expectations, and the market should be reassured that the sneaker seller’s recent performance is still on track, according to RBC.
  • NatWest shares gain as much as 4% after the stock was raised to buy from hold at Jefferies, which said its re-rating potential is now more obvious. The UK government also extended its plan to sell more of its stake in the group by a year.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks resumed their slide Wednesday as renewed fears of a crackdown hit Chinese technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 1.7%, cutting short a rebound in the previous session. TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent were the biggest drags, with a gauge of Chinese tech firms in Hong Kong falling more than 4%. Shares of online drug sellers slumped on a report that Beijing may ban third-party platforms from offering medicines over the internet.

Elsewhere, a sub-gauge on the region’s information tech companies headed for the lowest close since September 2020 amid growing worries over a global recession. South Korea’s benchmark slumped 2.7% as the tech-heavy market continued to face selling pressure amid foreign outflows. The Asian stock benchmark is hovering near a two-year low as the prospect of a slowdown in the US driven by aggressive interest-rate hikes unsettle investors. Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said Tuesday that a recession in the US looks likely in the near future, adding to the growing drumbeat of warnings. “Markets are still looking for the catalyst for a more sustained rebound as headwinds surrounding tightening financial conditions,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte, adding that gains from any technical rebound may be capped by some wait-and-see sentiments. After falling more than 18% this year, a technical indicator is suggesting the MSCI’s Asian benchmark has reached oversold levels and may be poised for a reprieve. Investors will now shift their focus to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on monetary policy to Congress later Wednesday, which may provide further clues on inflation and rates outlook. 

Indian markets snapped a two-day advance as growing concerns of slowing global growth potentially leading to a recession dragged down world equity markets.  The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 1.4% to 51,822.53 in Mumbai, while NSE Nifty 50 Index fell by an equal measure. Reliance Industries, a major drag on both the key gauges, declined 3%, its biggest plunge since May 9.  All of the 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. slipped, led by a measure of metal companies. All but four of 30 companies in the Sensex declined.  All major stock markets, including Asia, traded lower as investors fear that aggressive monetary tightening moves by global central banks could lead to an economic downturn. “Traders are advised to keep a hedge position, while investors should focus on stock selection,” according to Religare Broking analyst Ajit Mishra. The monsoon’s progress, a correction in oil prices and currency movements will be important factors to watch for the Indian stock market’s outlook, he said. 

In rates, havens were re underpinned with major yield curves bull-steepening. A Treasury rally was led by the front-end of the curve, following wider gains across gilts after UK May inflation matches median estimates, trimming expectations for more aggressive BOE rate hikes. US yields richer by 10bp-6bp across the curve with front-end-led advance steepening 2s10s by ~2bp, 5s30s by ~4bp; 10-year yields around 3.20%, richer by nearly 8bp on the day, while gilts outperform by additional 6bp in the sector. Short-dated gilts outperform, richening ~13bps in 2s after another hot inflation print. Gilts lead bunds, Treasuries higher, with traders pulling back from wagers on three 50 basis-points hikes by year end after UK inflation accelerated in line with estimates in May. MPC-dated OIS rates pare back some of the more aggressive pricing seen in recent days. German 10y yields fall 10bps to near 1.67%, Treasury 10-year yield eases ~6bps to near 3.22% ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony on monetary policy. Peripheral spreads widen, with long-dated BTPs underperforming. 

In FX, early in the session we saw a push toward the dollar, which subsequently was partly faded, but in any case it snapped two days of losses to rise by around 0.2% and the greenback advanced versus all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. JPY and CHF were the strongest performers in G-10 FX, NZD and AUD underperform. Antipodean currencies and the Norwegian krone were the worst performers and each of them fell by more than 1% against the greenback. The euro traded near $1.05 after dropping to a day low of 1.0469 in early European trading. The yen rebounded after making a fresh multi-decade low versus the greenback. The yen not only held the lead in short-term realized volatility, but traders also bet that it won’t lose its crown any time soon. Demand for low-delta exposure in the Japanese currency is by far the highest among the Group-of-10 peers, with Antipodean and Scandinavian currencies trailing.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate tumbled to $104 a barrel, with prices falling alongside other raw materials including copper. WTI sunk as much as 5.7% before recovering back above $104. Base metals trade poorly; LME tin falls 4.9%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $8 to trade near $1,825/oz. Concerns about a broad economic slowdown are eclipsing the fallout from the war in Ukraine and signs of still-tight supply. 

Bitcoin is pressured and briefly dipped again below the USD 20k mark, to a trough of USD 19.95k. Though, it remains someway from last week’s USD 17.5k low.

Looking at the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Other central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin, Evans and Harker, as well as BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Otherwise, data releases include UK and Canadian CPI for May, as well as the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area in June.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.7% to 3,702.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.6% to 401.86
  • MXAP down 1.7% to 156.08
  • MXAPJ down 2.3% to 517.35
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 26,149.55
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,852.65
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.6% to 21,008.34
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 3,267.20
  • Sensex down 1.2% to 51,918.86
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 6,508.54
  • Kospi down 2.7% to 2,342.81
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.69%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0509
  • Brent Futures down 3.8% to $110.24/bbl
  • Brent Futures down 3.9% to $110.18/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,825.23
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.23% to 104.67

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

A more detailed summary of Global Markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were subdued after the risk-on mood from Wall Street waned overnight amid pressure in commodities and with global markets lacking any fresh macro catalysts. ASX 200 pared early gains as resilience in energy and defensives was offset by losses in tech and financials. Nikkei 225 was indecisive after the Japanese currency bounced off its weakest level since 1998. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued amid ongoing COVID woes as Macau closed most public services through to Friday and with the Chinese city of Zhuhai also shutting entertainment venues in some areas, while there was some encouragement for the property sector with Chinese property developers planning to meet with banks regarding relief measures in July.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese property developers are planning to meet with banks regarding relief measures in July, according to Shanghai Securities News.
  • Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s struggle to revive China’s economy under the zero-Covid policy championed by President Xi Jinping has spurred rumours of rifts between the country’s top two leaders and considerable speculation over succession plans, according to SGH Macro Advisors.
  • BoJ April meeting minutes stated board members agreed on no change in the BoJ’s stance of taking additional easing steps as needed and a member noted that rising raw material costs would hurt the economy so they must keep powerful monetary easing. Furthermore, it was stated that Japan’s monetary policy challenge is to address too-low inflation, unlike in western economies, while a member said it is inappropriate to change the monetary policy stance as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to the downside risks for Japan’s economy.

European bourses are subdued, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.9%, as Tuesday’s positivity waned in the APAC session as commodities slipped in relatively limited newsflow. Unsurprisingly given this dynamic, the Basic Resources and Energy sectors are the European laggards, amid broader cyclical pressure. Stateside, futures are in-fitting with the above action, ES -1.4%, where participants are awaiting the first session of testimony from Chair Powell, newsquawk primer available here. Ant Group is reportedly to apply, as soon as this month, for a key financial license, via Bloomberg citing sources. Toyota (7203 JT) expects global vehicle production in July to be around 800k. China’s CPCA says domestic car rales rose 39% in the week to June 13th Y/Y, +55% M/M, via Reuters.

Top European News

  • UK PM Johnson is of the view that the government must win its battle with the rail unions and is prepared for the stand-off to last months, according to The Times.
  • Italy is reportedly preparing EUR 3bln of aid to curb energy bills, according to la Repubblica
  • Italian Foreign Minister Di Maio quit the 5-Star Movement (5SM) to set up a new group, according to Reuters.

FX

  • Dollar regains bullish momentum on risk dynamics ahead of Fed testimony; DXY on a firmer footing, but capped ahead of 105.000 within 104.950-430 range.
  • Yen also in demand as a safe haven as sentiment sours, USD/JPY reverses course from around 136.71 to sub-136.00 at one stage.
  • Kiwi and Aussie undermined by risk-off mood, with latter also hampered by heavy decline in iron ore; NZD/USD hovers above 0.6250 and well below 1bln option expiries at 0.6300, AUD/USD capped around 0.6900.
  • Loonie, Nokkie and Peso ruffled by collapse in WTI and Brent crude, USD/CAD rebounds towards 1.3000, EUR/NOK tests 10.5000 and USD/MXN straddles 20.1800.
  • Euro holds around 1.0500 and 10 DMA close by amidst hawkish ECB vibe, Pound pivots 1.2200 after somewhat mixed UK inflation data.

Central Banks

  • ECB’s de Guindos says he expects inflation to ease after the summer but stay near current levels in the coming months; Governing Council is yet to discuss details of the anti-fragmentation tool. New tool should be different from the prior OMT tool as the circumstances are different, will also differ from APP and PEPP.
  • Norwegian Gov’t names Paal Longva as Deputy Norges Bank chief.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds bounce firmly as risk sentiment turns bearish again on global inflation and recession concerns.
  • Bunds up to 144.87 before fading after a reasonable 2038 German auction.
  • Gilts top out at 111.89 and largely ignored mixed UK inflation metrics vs consensus.
  • 10 year T-note hovers closer to 116-19 overnight peak than 115-28+ trough pre-Fed chair Powell and 20 year supply plus other Fed speakers.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are, alongside broader commodities, pressured with fresh catalysts somewhat thin and focused on known themes.
  • Currently, they are lower by over 4% on the session and ahead of Biden’s announcement on gas prices; though, if implemented, such measures could serve to push demand and ultimately prices higher.
  • US President Biden will deliver remarks on gas prices at around 14:00EDT/19:00BST on Wednesday and will call on Congress to implement a suspension to the federal fuel tax.
  • Subsequently, multiple Democratic sources said that the effort to to suspend the federal gas tax for three months stands almost no chance of passing, according to Politico.
  • IEA warns Europe to prepare for a complete shutdown of Russian gas exports and that governments should keep ageing nuclear plants open and take other contingency measures, according to FT.
  • World Steel says global steel output -3.5% Y/Y in May at 162.7mln tonnes (prev. -5.1% Y/Y in April); China crude steel output -3.5% Y/Y to 96.6mln tonnes (prev. -5.2% Y/Y in April).
  • Spot gold is softer in-line with other metals, though the magnitude is more contained given its haven allure; broader action that sees LME Copper clipped despite the expected commencement of Chile strike action.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: June MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 6.6%

Central Bank Speakers

  • 09:00: Fed’s Barkin Speaks to West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
  • 09:30: Powell Delivers Semi-Annual Testimony Before Senate Panel
  • 12:00: Fed’s Barkin Speaks to the Federal City Council
  • 12:50: Fed’s Evans Discusses Economic Outlook
  • 13:30: Fed’s Harker and Barkin Discuss the Economic Outlook

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Whilst the question of whether we’re about to face a recession is still dominating markets, risk assets posted a sharp rebound yesterday as the US got back from holiday. In fact by the close of trade, the S&P 500 (+2.45%) had put in its strongest daily performance in nearly a month, with every sector higher on the day and energy (+5.13%) doing most of the legwork. Even though the chart book showed that before yesterday the S&P was on course for the worst H1 since 1932 we did show in the CoTD (link here) that the top 5 H1 declines over the last 90 years were all followed by strong H2 performance. Before you think it’s safe to come out from behind the sofa, S&P futures are around -1% lower this morning as the recession narrative makes a bit of a comeback. European futures are indicating that yesterday’s gains (STOXX 600 +0.35%) will be eradicated which could end a three day winning streak. Oil prices are lower overnight with Brent Crude futures weakening -3.23% to $110.95/bbl while WTI futures are down -4.69% at $105.46/bbl amid a push by US President Joe Biden to bring down soaring fuel costs by calling for a temporary suspension of the 18.4-cents a gallon federal tax on gasoline. The demand destruction narrative is making a comeback in Asia as well.

Today’s big event is Fed Chair Powell’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee as part of the Fed’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report that they deliver to Congress. According to our US economists, they expect him to reiterate the same themes he gave at his post-meeting press conference last week, where he signalled that they’d likely be deciding between 50bps and 75bps at the July meeting. Fed funds futures are currently implying that another 75bps move is more likely, with +71.8bps currently priced in, but don’t forget that there’s still plenty yet to happen ahead of that meeting in just over a month, including the subsequent CPI release and jobs report for June, and as we found out at the last meeting, it’s not implausible that unexpected data releases throw the previous guidance off course.

With all that to look forward to, Treasuries built on their selloff from last week, with the 10yr yield up +4.9bps to 3.27% as it echoed the higher yields we’d seen in Europe the previous day. In Asia, US 10yr yields (-1.89 bps) have dipped back down to 3.25%. They haven’t had much in the way of Fedspeak to go off over the last 24 hours, although Richmond Fed President Barkin (a non-voter this year) said he “didn’t have a problem” with Powell’s guidance for the decision next month, and that he was in favour of the 75bps hike they did. Those moves in Treasuries also led to a steepening in the curve, with the 2s10s slope up +3.4bps to 7.2bps as they edged slightly further away from the inversion territory that they’ve briefly fallen into twice this year now. In Europe there was more of a divergence between core and peripheral yields however, and those on 10yr bunds (+2.2bps) closing at a post-2014 high, just as those on BTPs fell by -1.2bps.

Some of the most significant news over the last 24 hours has been on the FX front, where the Japanese Yen fell to a fresh low for the 21st century of 136.71 per US Dollar this morning before bouncing back to 136.20 as I type. You’ve got to go all the way back to 1998 for the last time the currency was trading at a weaker level though. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida did not seem too concerned about BoJ monetary policy divergence and the impact on weakening the yen, saying in a debate policy needed to remain easy, perhaps lending more political support to the BoJ’s policies.

Stocks across Asian markets are trading lower this morning, with the Kospi (-1.89%) the largest underperformer followed by the Hang Seng (-1.26%) after a two-day winning streak earlier this week. Markets in mainland China are also sliding with the Shanghai Composite (-0.33%) and CSI (-0.62%) both weak. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.04%) gave up its early gains, hovering just above the flatline as I type. Bitcoin is at $20,332 in Asian trading.

Here in the UK, gilts underperformed their counterparts elsewhere in Europe following remarks from BoE Chief Economist Pill that they would act “more aggressively” if required. In response, 10yr gilt yields rose +5.0bps to reach a fresh post-2014 high of 2.65%. Overnight index swaps are continuing to price in 50bp moves by the BoE at the next 3 meetings, with a path that would leave Bank Rate above 3% by year-end.

There were also reports that former Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was considering leaving Mario Draghi’s coalition. While Draghi’s party would still likely retain a majority in both chambers of Parliament, it would leave a very narrow path to push through legislation to fix the economy or to resist dissent from coalition members – a theme all too familiar to Senate Democrats in the US.

There wasn’t much in the way of data yesterday, although US existing home sales fell broadly as expected to an annualised rate of 5.41m in May (vs. 5.40m expected), which is their lowest level since June 2020 as the numbers were recovering after the initial wave of the pandemic.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Other central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin, Evans and Harker, as well as BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Otherwise, data releases include UK and Canadian CPI for May, as well as the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area in June.

 WEDNESDAY /TUESDAY NIGHT

  SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 39.52 PTS OR 1.20%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 551.25 PTS OR 2.56%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 96.76 OR 0.57%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.28%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7144    /Oil DOWN TO 104.55 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 110.12 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7144 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7185: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER  

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B  JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA/HONG KONG

Troublesome for Hong Kong as the peg is starting to splinter.  The culprit: the strong dollar against a much weaker HK dollar

(zerohedge)

HKMA Is Blowing Billions To Defend Dollar Peg

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 06:40 PM

The Hong Kong Dollar dropped to its weakest against the US Dollar this morning since April 2018. This is a major problem for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) because, as a reminder for some, the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) is pegged to a tight band of between 7.75 and 7.85 versus the U.S. dollar.

And today saw the HKD break below the lower bound of the peg, trading down to 7.8502/USD at its lows…

The main culprit behind the local currency’s slump is the carry trade which has been reignited by The Fed hiking rates and potential capital flight out of China/HK.

This is an arbitrage, where traders take advantage of differences in prices, selling a low-yielding product (the Hong Kong dollar) to buy a high-yielding product (the US dollar). In this case, the price difference is between the local borrowing cost known as the Hong Kong interbank offered rate (Hibor) and the US borrowing cost known as the Libor.

Simply put, traders are borrowing against the low Hibor, selling the Hong Kong dollar to buy the US currency for investments in high-yielding US assets. The difference between the two is widest since March 2019… and that is pressuring the HKD against its lower peg bound.

As more traders pile on to the carry, more pressure is placed on the Hong Kong dollar, causing it to weaken further against the US currency. As the chart above shows there has been some shift in the carry-trade-pressure since HKMA has stepped in.

Nevertheless, HKMA is forced to step in and as CNBC reported, HKMA’s Chief Executive Eddie Yue said last month that as it intervenes and funds flow out of Hong Kong’s system, local rates should rise, removing the incentive for market players to conduct “carry trades”, and hence keep the Hong Kong dollar trading within its band.

“All these are normal operations in accordance with the design of the Linked Exchange Rate System,” he said.

However, the size of the flows are starting to become significant… and are having less impact. According to HKMA, its aggregate balance will decrease to about HK$241.9 billion on June 23 (from HK$338 billion in May before the interventions began again).

That is almost HK$100 billion in reserves and The Fed’s plan to hike rates (as many as twelve more times this year) will do nothing to help ease the situation (especially since China will not be tightening its policy anytime soon) – meaning any USDs sold in defense of the weaker HKD will be battling global carry trade flows driven by The Fed’s tightening.

As we have detailed previously, China currently has a dilemma because it has to pick either to hike, and avoid capital flight, or cut and remain competitive with Japan, whose collapsing JPY means chinese exports are getting priced out of global markets.

The fund still has plenty of ammo to fight the carry trade pressure (for now) as we note the aggregate balance dropped to around HK$50 billion in 2019 after the last series of HKMA interventions to stop the currency weakening.

In 2018, as the HKD plunged on the same carry flow, the HKMA CEO reassured the public “Stay calm on the weakening of the Hong Kong dollar.” So far no such warning has been issued this time.

end

Chinese lockdowns and heavy rains eased the coal shortages in April and May

(zerohedge)

China’s Lockdowns And Heavy Rains Ease Coal Shortage

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 09:40 PM

By John Kemp, senior energy analyst at Reuters

China’s electricity generation experienced rare declines in April and May compared with the same months a year earlier as lockdowns imposed to stop the spread of the coronavirus curbed consumption.

But slower consumption growth coupled with heavy rains across southern provinces, which has boosted hydro generation to a record high, has accelerated replenishment of coal inventories after shortages in 2021.

As a result, the coal supply situation is likely to be much more comfortable heading into the winter of 2022/23 than it was ahead of winter 2021/22. Generation from all sources was down 3%-4% in April and May compared with the same months in 2021, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.

Generation has declined year-on-year in only 12 of the last 131 months; this was the first back-to-back decline since the first wave of the epidemic in 2020, illustrating the impact lockdowns have had on the economy.

Output in the first five months as a whole totalled 3,248 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), an increase of just 71 billion kWh (2.2%) from the same period in 2021. Nearly all of the increase came from hydro-electric generators, which boosted output by 66 billion kWh compared with 2021.

There were also increases in generation from wind farms (+49 billion kWh), solar farms (+19 billion kWh) and nuclear units (+7 billion kWh). By contrast, output from thermal units, nearly all of which burn coal, declined by 71 billion kWh compared with the same period in 2021.

Southern Rainfall

Hydro output in the first five months totalled 435 billion kWh, up from 368 billion kWh in 2021, surpassing the previous seasonal record of 400 billion kWh in 2019.

The surge in hydro generation has been driven by the unusually heavy rainfall which has lashed southern China since the start of the year.

In some parts of southern China, rainfall has been the heaviest for 60 years (“Southern China hit by severe rains, floods as ‘dragon boat water’ peaks”, Reuters, June 21).

The Ministry of Water Resources has issued flood alerts across most southern provinces since the start of June (“China launches level-IV emergency response for rain in southern areas”, MWR, June 13).

In response, top officials from the central government have been supervising massive releases from the upstream dams to manage flood risk in the region’s major river systems.

For example, total precipitation at Xiangjiaba on Jinsha River, at the border of Yunnan and Sichuan provinces, and the site of one of the country’s mega-dams, has been more than 50% higher than the average in 2014-2021.

Cumulative precipitation at Xiangjiaba so far this year has been 571 millimetres, up from 267 at the same point in 2021, and the highest since 2016.

Xiangjiaba’s massive generating station has installed capacity of more than 6 Gigawatts and sends power through a high-voltage transmission link to Shanghai.

Torrential rainfall has allowed hydro-electric generators across southern China to ramp up output earlier this year and should enable them to sustain it at a higher level for longer, saving coal.

More output from hydro plus wind, solar and nuclear is in turn relieving pressure on thermal generators and should allow them to accumulate coal stocks faster ahead of next winter.

Since the start of the year, the central government has pressed both coal mining companies and power generators to increase stocks at power plants to prevent a re-run of last year’s shortages.

The slowdown in electricity consumption and boost in hydro and other alternatives has made that policy far more effective and should reduce the risk of power rationing later in the year.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

EUROPEAN/POWER

Prices spike as the heat dome throughout Europe is straining the grid

(zerohedge)

European Power Prices Spike As Heat Dome Strains Grid 

WEDNESDAY, JUN 22, 2022 – 02:45 AM

European day-ahead power prices continue to soar for the third day due to an early-season heat wave driving up cooling demand, lack of renewable energy generation, declining nuclear power, and soaring natural gas costs. 

Large swaths of Europe over the weekend experienced temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius). The hottest temperatures were from Spain to Germany to France. 

Bloomberg notes power grids were under stress as wind generation in Germany and Italy plunged, forcing the need to increase the capacity of fossil fuel power generators to make up for the lost power. This placed a bid under electricity prices as the cost to generate power soars because of tightening supplies due to declining Russian flows. 

“Already high gas prices, combined with low wind output will require less efficient, higher cost gas plants to fire up, pushing up prices,” BloombergNEF’s Andreas Gandolfo said. 

Day-ahead power prices in France traded at 383.14 euros ($404.08) a megawatt-hour, up more than 64% from last week. 

Besides tight fossil fuel supplies and a lack of renewable power from Germany and Italy, half of France’s 56 nuclear reactors are offline. France was the biggest net exporter of power last year, supplying many European countries. 

French nuclear power is needed when renewable energy is lacking. Also, Brussels’ drive for net-zero carbon emissions and weening off Russian fossil fuels has made the energy crisis on the continent worse. 

To avert a more profound crisis, German Vice-Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Sunday that the country is increasing coal generation to increase power output. 

The decision comes just days after Russian gas company Gazprom announced that it was reducing supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for “technical reasons.”

Meanwhile, the Netherlands is following Germany to increase coal-fired power station output to prevent an energy crisis (Greta Thunberg isn’t going to be happy about this). 

A perfect storm of factors shows Europe’s power grid is vulnerable to blackouts this summer unless more energy generating capacity can be restored. So far, the continent is desperately trying to restart fossil fuel power units after retiring them for the failed green transition. 

end

ECB

(Mish Shedlock)

The ECB Has A Huge Dilemma: Price Stability Or Bail Out Nations

WEDNESDAY, JUN 22, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Hello ECB president Christine Lagarde, what you gonna do?

Eurozone bond yields from ECB, current month from Investing.com, chart by Mish

The spreads between German government bonds and those of the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) have skyrocketed in recent weeks. 

This comes while Eurozone inflation is at a record high 8.1 percent.

Eurozone Inflation courtesy of Trading Economics 

Lagarde Tells Ministers ECB Plans for Limit on Bond Spreads

On June 16, Bloomberg reported Lagarde Tells Ministers ECB Plans for Limit on Bond Spreads

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told euro-area finance ministers that the ECB’s new anti-crisis tool will kick in if the borrowing costs for weaker nations rise too far or too fast, according to people briefed on their discussions.

At a meeting in Luxembourg Thursday, Lagarde explained to ministers that the new mechanism that central bank officials are devising is intended to prevent irrational market movements from putting pressure on individual euro nations as ECB embarks on its first interest-rate hikes in more than a decade, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private conversations. 

The ECB Governing Council on Wednesday instructed officials to accelerate work on a “new anti-fragmentation instrument” after the yield on Italian bonds surged amid signs that global inflation is becoming more entrenched.

New Tool, What New Tool?

There is no new tool and there won’t be a new tool. The ECB can use an existing QE tool to buy unlimited amount of sovereign bonds or not. It’s a choice, not a new tool.

Spreads collapsed in the wake of ECB QE (and bond buying of peripheral Europe. 

Now the ECB faces 8.1 percent inflation, the most in history and it needs to hike rates and shrink it’s balance sheet. 

What’s it gonna do? Shrink the balance sheet of Germany and expand that of Italy and Greece? 

Mario Draghi Moment

On July 26, 2012, with similar spiking underway, then ECB President Mario Draghi (now Italy’s president and symbolic leader, the Prime Minister is leader) issued this statement.

We will do whatever it takes to save the Euro, and believe me it will be enough.

Q: What did Draghi do?
A: Nothing!

Bond spreads collapsed on the announcement.

No New Tool, Just a Bluff

Hoot of the Day: The ECB said “Investors should not doubt the commitment of policy makers to deliver on their mandate to maintain price stability.”

There is no new tool here. It’s either a bluff or selective implementation of a previous QE tool.

Price Stability? At 8.1%? With spreads like these?

10-Year Sovereign Bond Spread Over Germany 

Eurozone bond spread calculations by Mish

How to Resist Fiscal Dominance

Eurointelligence has an interesting column today on How to Resist Fiscal Dominance.

I have been observing this slow moving train wreck for a year now. Financial markets were absolutely certain that the European Central Bank would follow up with a new programme of asset purchases after the existing programmes expire. But when I talked to central bankers, I was regularly assured that this would not happen.

Over the last week, that conflict came to a head. The ECB announced the end of the asset purchases and did not put anything else in place. All the ECB said was that it would work on an emergency instrument. The bond markets panicked.

What is happening between the markets and the central bank is not just a form of mutual miscommunication. This is a power struggle. The ECB is resisting what is known as fiscal dominance, which is when a central bank can’t follow its target because it is under pressure to bail out governments

There are no easy answers. The central bank knows it cannot ignore sovereign debt spreads, because they do affect monetary policy transmission mechanisms. The only instrument that would fix this problem is a mutualised eurobond.

In other words, fiscal dominance is not so much a matter of choice, but one of a lack of alternatives. The ECB may well be stuck in this situation. Support the bond markets, and risk a permanent overshoot of the inflation target. Or don’t support the bond market, and risk a sovereign-debt crisis, a financial meltdown. 

ECB Statement

Common Budget

Fundamental Flaw

A fundamental flaw of the Eurozone (and also of the EU) is that it take unanimous agreement to do nearly anything, especially male treaty changes.

Bluff vs Bluff 

Mario Draghi got away with a bluff because the pressures of globalization were disinflationary.

Lagarde will not get away with the same bluff, stated very wimpishly, because the forces of de-globalization and the war in Ukraine are very inflationary. 

The problem the ECB faces is far more complex that the Fed’s problem. The Fed is on a mission to fight inflation and there is only one country to worry about.

Eurozone 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields Long Term 

[ZH: We note that – just as with Draghi’s comments – spreads have compressed since the ECB jawboning. BUT, they have stalled at rather wide levels, seemingly unwilling to just front-run ‘nothing but promises’ by the central bank. Have they blown their bluffability?]

Neutral Complexities 

There is no single interest rate that makes any sense for Germany, Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal. 

The Fed is struggling to find the neutral rate, and I believe will overshoot, but at least there is a neutral rate. 

Lagarde is on Mission Impossible with 19 countries in the Eurozone, all with a different neutral. 

In theory, the sovereign bonds of Germany and Greece are the same. Default risks are the same.

In practice this is total nonsense, and for the third time the idea is being tested. 

The Fed Searches For the Neutral Interest Rate, Where the Heck Is It?

For discussion, please see The Fed Searches For the Neutral Interest Rate, Where the Heck Is It?

Ok, Christine what will it be? Illegally shrink the balance sheet of Germany and expand that of Italy and Greece?

For how long? 

Leave interest rates in negative territory? Expand the balance sheet? What then? 

The world awaits a new tool, and one that cannot possibly work.

Meanwhile, the EU is being torn apart over energy. For discussion, please see Germany’s Climate Protection Minister Mandates More Coal to Produce Electricity

Hoot of the Day Addendum

Lagarde Won’t Reveal Tool

What a hoot. I was not aware of Lagarde’s statement when I wrote this post or the preceding Tweet.

*  *  *

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

end

Why the ECB’s emergency meeting created an emergency.  The USA corporate sector borrows money from the bond market.  Europe borrowers money from the bank

and if the banks are in trouble, corporates are in serious trouble

(Thomas Kirchner/Camelot Portfolios)

ECB Emergency Meeting Creates Emergency

WEDNESDAY, JUN 22, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Submitted by Thomas Kirchner of Camelot Portfolios

  • The ECB emergency meeting created an emergency.
  • Similarities to 1992 currency crisis and Italian devaluation.
  • Financial conditions in 1992 were more favorable than today.
  • Europe is headed for another debt and political crisis.

Were it not for the ECB calling an emergency meeting last Thursday, most market participants would not have realized there was an emergency in the bond market. Apparently, the sharp rise in yields on Italian bonds after the ECB stopped buying amounts to an emergency. The “emergency” label draws attention to the precarious state of public finances in parts of Europe. We would argue that debt levels are what is a real emergency, not the level of credit spreads or interest rates.

In our view, it was the ECB’s own actions that facilitated this situation through its bond purchase programs. Instead of giving highly indebted welfare states breathing room to reduce their debt burdens, it led to the exact opposite: countries increased their debt levels. It depends on your view as to whether the ECB had acted in the last few years as a buyer of last resort or as a greater fool who vastly overpaid for bonds that should have had much higher yields.

The episode reminds us of the 1992 currency crisis of the European Monetary System (EMS).

Replay of 1992

The 1992 crisis of the EMS is today best remembered for when George Soros broke the Bank of England and forced the British Pound’s exit from the system. Of course, that is the popular depiction of events. The reality to us is that the pound would have had to exit the EMS irrespective of whether or not it had been shorted by the Quantum Fund.

Less well remembered is the 7% devaluation of Italy’s Lira over the weekend before September 14, 1992 [i], which preceded the exit of the British pound from the EMS on September 16, 1992[ii]. Over the two years following that devaluation, the Lira weakened further by a total of nearly 30% [iii]. Italy had achieved a balanced primary budget at the time, meaning that if you ignored the cost of interest on debt, the government had no deficit. However, once you took debt costs into account, the actual budget deficit was 10% of GDP [iv]. With interest rates on the rise and debt representing 105% of GDP[v], Italy was headed down an unsustainable fiscal path. Italy’s central bank increased the discount rate from 11.5% in November 1991 to as much as 15.0% in September 1992, an increase of 3.5 percentage points [vi]. Yields on 10-year Italian government bonds rose from 12.5% in May 1992 to 14.4% by October [vii].

If we compare this to the current situation, then Italy is not actually in as precarious a situation as it was in 1992. The 2021 government deficit represented 7.2% of GDP [iv] including debt cost compared to 10% in 1992.

But the lower deficit is achieved in an environment with much lower debt service costs. As a result, Italy’s primary budget deficit could be in a really bad spot. Reuters reports that it expects a level of 5.6% for 2022 [viii]. Moreover, as of 2021, debt stands at 151% of GDP compared to 105% in 1992.

Italy entered the 1992 devaluation with a manageable level of debt (which would be comparable to the U.S. today) but high interest rates, which could arguably only go down. In 2022, however, Italy enters an interest rate hiking cycle with debt at a crippling level, and low interest rates that can arguably only go up. It is a recipe for disaster.

Where the parallel to 1992 of last week’s ECB meeting becomes relevant is when we consider the trigger of the 1992 currency crisis. On September 5, 1992, finance ministers and central bankers met in Bath but failed to agree on a plan to realign currencies in combination with a rate cut by the Bundesbank. This meeting drew attention to the disequilibrium that high interest rates were causing across the currency system. Everybody knew the problems that the EMS was facing, but the failure of the meeting became the catalyst for a panic.

We believe that the ECB emergency meeting has had a similar effect, albeit the immediate impact is likely to remain much less dramatic than the events that unfolded in 1992. Nevertheless, by lifting the Italian debt sustainability question to the level of an ECB emergency meeting, the ECB turned a latent problem into a near-term danger.

Over-reliance on banks

What makes sovereign debt problems in Europe more dangerous for the economy than elsewhere is the high prevalence of bank loans in the financing of businesses. While in the U.S., 80% of corporate financing happens in the bond market; in Europe, 80% of such financing is done via bank loans [ix]. That means that if banks are in trouble, companies no longer have access to financing and what starts as a credit crunch becomes a full-blown credit crisis. And because banks are required by various regulations to invest in government bonds, a haircut on sovereign debt will result in a banking crisis. In the U.S., the bond market may be able absorb a shock to the banking system, at least given the right circumstances. With the corporate bond market being underdeveloped in Europe, that isn’t in the realm of possibilities.

Of course, that’s what happened during the Greek sovereign debt crisis and is the reason why Europe had no choice but to bail out its banks. In the meantime, nothing has been done to reduce the reliance on the banking sector. Officials remain as suspicious of financial markets as ever.

The endgame: yield curve control

We see no easy solution for Europe’s predicament of high government debt levels and expensive welfare states that lead to budget deficits, which further increase debt levels. The ECB may have only one way out: yield curve control in the hope that inflation will reduce the real burden of government debts. Unfortunately, that is exactly what Northern Europeans wanted to prevent when the Euro was created, and insisted on the stability pact, which has become obsolete. We will not make predictions on the political implications within the European Union, but it’s clear that it won’t be pretty.

* * *

[I] Christina Sevilla: “Explaining the September 1992 ERM Crisis: The Maastricht Bargain and Domestic Politics in Germany, France, and Britain.” Presented at the European Community Studies Association, Fourth Biennial International Conference, May 11-14, 1995.
[ii] Id.
[iii] Andrea Capussela: “Italy’s crisis viewed from the year 1992.” Il Mulino, June 6, 2018.
[iv] Italy Government budget deficit. retrieved from countryeconomy.com.
[v] Italy Government Debt to GDP. National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) retrieved from tradingeconomics.com.
[vi] International Monetary Fund, Interest Rates, Discount Rate for Italy [INTDSRITM193N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INTDSRITM193N, June 20, 2022.
[vii] Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Italy [IRLTLT01ITM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01ITM156N, June 19, 2022.
[viii] Giuseppe Fonte, Gavin Jones: “EXCLUSIVE Italy to stick to 5.6% deficit target despite slashing growth outlook.” Reuters, March 29, 2022.
[ix] Torsten Sløk: “US and European Companies Financed Differently.” Deutsche Bank Research, retrieved from ritholtz.com/2020/10/financed-us-europe/

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/LITHUANIA//KALININGRAD

this is dangerous!!

Russia Demands Lithuania Lift “Openly Hostile” Blockade of Kalingrad; Panic Buying Ensues – Global ResearchGlobal Research – Centre for Research on Globalization

Inbox

Robert Hryniak12:04 PM (43 minutes ago)
to

Totally dumb!
This is nothing more than an attempt to cause Russia to act against Lithuania. This is a poor country being sacrificed on a war altar that will serve no one. There is no reason for this other than to shift attention away from the failure of the EU and the EURO. This was baked in years ago with a denial of normal interest rates. Now it is a race to shift blame away from hapless politicians before the public reacts to their failure and blame a war with Russia for default. The dirty conflict in the Ukraine is not enough.
Perhaps hapless nations want to sacrifice themselves but by no means is NATO United and will show a splintered alliance, if fighting breaks out. War with Russia will produce no winners on either side. Yes, the boys of war want to test their new shiny undisclosed weapons, but to what purpose than to kill innocent people? And more likely than not it will see individual nations fighting with mass destruction of civilian structures.
Such conflict will go nuclear or worse and no one knows exactly what each side will do other than to know there will be no winners. One would think by now in civilized cultural development nations might have developed past such immature behavior. But clearly political leadership is sadly found to be lacking in being fit for purpose.
Complete insanity on display for a watching world to see which will serve to remove any real stature for hegemony. How can anyone trust such behavior? It presents the world with decisions to make as to what kind of world order is desired and this is not what the majority of the world wants to see.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/russia-demands-lithuania-lift-openly-hostile-blockade-of-kalingrad-panic-buying-ensues/5783966

END

UKRAINE

UK

end

GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

the authors are perfectly correct:  vaccination increases risk of COVID 19 infection, but infection without vaccination gives immunity in this latest study!

(COURTESY EPOCH TIMES)

special thanks to Milan S for sending this to us.

Vaccination Increases Risk of COVID-19 Infection, But Infection Without Vaccination Gives Immunity: Study

By Marina Zhang

June 21, 2022Updated: June 21, 2022

biggersmaller

Print

Having two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine has been linked with negative protection against symptomatic infection with the disease, scientists say, while a previous infection without vaccination offers around 50 percent immunity, according to a study analyzing the Omicron wave in Qatar.

The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine on June 15, examined the Omicron wave in Qatar that occurred from around December 2021 to February 2022, comparing vaccination rates and immunity among more than 100,000 Omicron infected and non-infected individuals.

The authors of the study found that those who had a prior infection but no vaccination had a 46.1 and 50 percent immunity against the two subvariants of the Omicron variant, even at an interval of more than 300 days since the previous infection.

However, individuals who received two doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine but had no previous infection, were found with negative immunity against both BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron subvariants, indicating an increased risk of contracting COVID-19 than an average person.

Over six months after getting two doses of the Pfizer vaccine, immunity against any Omicron infection dropped to -3.4 percent.

But for two doses of the Moderna vaccine, immunity against any Omicron infection dropped to -10.3 percent after more than six months since the last injection.

Though the authors reported that three doses of the Pfizer vaccine increased immunity to over 50 percent, this was measured just over 40 days after the third vaccination, which is a very short interval. In comparison, natural immunity persisted at around 50 percent when measured over 300 days after the previous infection, while immunity levels fell to negative figures 270 days after the second dose of vaccine.

These figures indicate a risk of waning immunity for the third vaccine dose as time progresses.

The findings are supported by another recent study from Israel that also found natural immunity waned significantly more slowly compared to artificial, or vaccinated, immunity.

The study found that both natural and artificial immunity waned over time.

Individuals that were previously infected but not vaccinated had half the risks of reinfection as compared to those that were vaccinated with two doses but not infected.

“Natural immunity wins again,” Dr. Martin Adel Makary, a public policy researcher at Johns Hopkins University, wrote on Twitter, referring to the Israeli study.

“Among persons who had been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, protection against reinfection decreased as the time increased,” the authors concluded, “however, this protection was higher” than protection conferred in the same time interval through two doses of the vaccine.

Enrico Trigoso contributed to this report.

END

SPECIAL THANKS TO MILAN S FOR SENDING THIS TO US:

DR PAUL ALEXANDER.

“Doctors baffled by Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS) in healthy young people”….hhhmmm, let me see, what occurred in 2021 that was different? Could it possibly, remotely, have to do with vaccine?

COVID vaccine???? maybe, just maybe? of course these idiots, these doctors know this, they know this, they are not baffled…

Dr. Paul AlexanderJun 19

SOURCE:

Doctors baffled by Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS) in healthy young people

end

Dr Paul Alexander….

Alexander: “Dear Pfizer: Leave the Children Alone” (Tucker/Brownstone)

I wrote this paper on the childhood vaccines before the FDA/CDC authorization meeting.

Dr. Paul AlexanderJun 22

SOURCE:

Dear Pfizer: Leave the Children Alone

Pfizer plans to go to the FDA to get authorization for vaccination of 5 to 12 year old children based on a study they claim to have completed. The Biden administration is on board. 

This is absolutely reckless, dangerous based on lack of safety data and poor research methodology, and without any scientific basis.

Are children at risk for Covid-19 that would warrant a vaccine? What does the evidence show? 

The infection mortality rate (IFR) is roughly similar (or likely lower once all infection data are collected) to seasonal influenza. Stanford’s John P.A. Ioannidis identified 36 studies (43 estimates) along with an additional 7 preliminary national estimates (50 pieces of data) and concluded that among people <70 years old across the world, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.57% with a median of 0.05% across the different global locations (with a corrected median of 0.04%). Survival for those under 70 years is 99.5% (Ioannidis update). Moreover, with a focus on children, “The estimated IFR is close to zero for children and young adults.” The global data is unequivocal that “deaths from Covid are incredibly rare” in children.

The published evidence is conclusive that the risk of severe illness or death from Covid-19 in children is almost nil (statistical zero) and this evidence has accumulated for well over a year now; in fact we knew this for over 18 months. It is clear that children are at very low risk of spreading the infection to other children, of spreading to adults as seen in household transmission studies, or of taking it home or becoming ill, or dying, and this is settled scientific global evidence. Children are less at risk of developing severe illness courses, and also are far less susceptible and likely to spread and drive SARS-CoV-2 (references 1234). This implies that any mass injection/inoculation or even clinical trials on children with such near zero risk of spread and illness/death is contraindicated, unethical, and potentially associated with significant harm.

The risk-benefit discussion for children with these Covid-19 injections is a very different one than that for adults. The fact is that this is a completely novel and experimental injection therapy with no medium or long-term safety data (or even definitive effectiveness data). If we move forward with the vaccination of our children without the proper safety testing, then we will present them with potentially catastrophic risk, including deaths in some.

A team of Johns Hopkins researchers recently reported that when they looked at a group of about 48,000 children in the US infected with the virus, they found no (zero) Covid deaths among the healthy kids. Dr. Makary indicated that his team “worked with the non-profit FAIR Health to analyze approximately 48,000 children under 18 diagnosed with Covid in health-insurance data from April to August 2020…after studying comprehensive data on thousands of children, the team “found a mortality rate of zero among children without a pre-existing medical condition such as leukemia.”

With this background, we knew of the very low risk to children in the first place, but wanted scientific documentation (molecular/biological) of why this low risk existed, to help support our argument against these injections in our children. The evidence presented below (including on the risk of the injection itself) may help explain why children are not candidates for the Covid vaccines (here and here) and may well be (are) immune and can be considered “fully vaccinated.”

The key arguments are:

1.) The virus uses the ACE 2 receptor to gain entry to the host cell, and the ACE 2 receptor has limited (less) expression and presence in the nasal epithelium in young children (potentially in upper respiratory airways); this partly explains why children are less likely to be infected in the first place, or spread it to other children or adults, or even get severely ill; the biological molecular apparatus is simply not there in the nasopharynx of children as reported eloquently by Patel and Bunyavanich. By bypassing this natural protection (limited nasal ACE 2 receptors in young children) and entering the shoulder deltoid, this could release vaccine, its mRNA and LNP content (e.g. PEG), and generated spike into the circulation that could then damage the endothelial lining of the blood vessels (vasculature) and cause severe allergic reactions (e.g. hereherehereherehere).

2) Recent research (August 2021) by Loske deepens our understanding of this natural type biological/molecular protection even further by showing that pre-activated (primed) antiviral innate immunity in the upper airways of children work to control early SARS-CoV-2 infection…resulting in a stronger early innate antiviral response to SARS-CoV-2 infection than in adults.”

3) When one is vaccinated or gets infected naturally, this drives the formation, tissue distribution, and clonal evolution of B cells which is key to encoding humoral immune memory. There is recent research evidence by Yang published in Science (May 2021) that blood examined from children retrieved prior to Covid-19 pandemic have memory B cells that can bind to SARS-CoV-2, suggestive of the potent role of early childhood exposure to common cold coronaviruses (coronaviruses). This is supported by Mateus et al. who reported on T cell memory to prior coronaviruses that cause the common cold (cross-reactivity/cross-protection). 

4) Weisberg and Farber et al. suggest (and building on research work by Kumar and Faber) that the reason children can more easily neutralize the virus is that their T cells are relatively naïve. They argue that since children’s T cells are mostly untrained, they can thus immunologically respond more rapidly and nimbly to novel viruses.

5) Risk: There is an emerging discussion that with approximately 570 Covid injection deaths registered in VAERS in children, and the CDC reporting approximately 350 deaths in children since the inception of the emergency (Feb/March 2020), then the vaccine is killing more children than the virus/disease itself (Steve Kirsh, personal communication, September 2nd 2021).

6) A Yale University report (Yale and Albert Einstein College of Medicine report Sept. 18, 2020 in the journal Science Translational Medicine) indicates that children and adults display very diverse and different immune system responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection which helps understanding why they have far less illness or mortality from COVID. “Since the earliest days of the COVID-19 outbreak, scientists have observed that children infected with the virus tend to fare much better than adults…researchers reported that levels of two immune system molecules — interleukin 17A (IL-17A), which helps mobilize immune system response during early infection, and interferon gamma (INF-g), which combats viral replication — were strongly linked to the age of the patients. The younger the patient, the higher the levels of IL-17A and INF-g, the analysis showed…these two molecules are part of the innate immune system, a more primitive, non-specific type of response activated early after infection.”

7) Dowell et al. (2022) recently published and commented on antibody and cellular immunity in children (aged 3-11 years) and adults. Their findings confirm a biological basis for why SARS-CoV-2 infection is generally mild or asymptomatic in children. They reported that antibody responses against spike protein were elevated in children and seroconversion “boosted responses against seasonal Beta-coronaviruses through cross-recognition of the S2 domain. Neutralization of viral variants was comparable between children and adults. Spike-specific T cell responses were more than twice as high in children and were also detected in many seronegative children, indicating pre-existing cross-reactive responses to seasonal coronaviruses.” Very key in the findings were that children maintained and preserved “antibody and cellular responses 6 months after infection, whereas relative waning occurred in adults. Spike-specific responses were also broadly stable beyond 12 months. Therefore, children generate robust, cross-reactive and sustained immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 with focused specificity for the spike protein.”

What can be concluded? Pulling these emerging research findings together strengthens the case that children are not candidates for the Covid vaccines and are to be considered already “fully and completely Covid-vaccinated.” Furthermore, as lucidly outlined by Whelan, it is potentially disastrous to children if we move forward with vaccines without proper study of the possible harms to them. Vaccine developers failed to conduct the proper safety studies and for the duration that would unravel any harms. 

Regulators: please slow down and demand safety testing, no matter how long it takes. Conduct proper risk-benefit analyses and see that the injections are contraindicated in children. Particular care is needed with regard to the potential widespread injection of children before there are any real data on the safety or effectiveness of these injections.

There is very little risk and no data or evidence or science to justify any of the Covid-19 injections in children. Under no circumstance should we expose the risk of the injections to children, and to consider putting risk on children so as to protect adults is perverse and reckless and very dangerous. There is no safety data. The focus rather has to be on early treatment and testing (sero antibody or T cell) to establish who is a credible candidate for these injections if properly ethically informed and consented, for it is very dangerous to layer inoculation on top of existing Covid-recovered, naturally acquired immunity (no benefit and only potential harm/adverse effects) (hereherehereherehere, and here). 

We must establish who is Covid-recovered, which is natural immunity, as this is a critical piece of the puzzle before any injection. Additionally, if public health agency leaders Fauci, Walensky, and Collins continue to demand that our children be vaccinated, then they must remove liability protection for all who benefit from it.

What does all of this mean? A biological and molecular (as well as epidemiological) argument was presented that shows children are already ‘vaccinated.’ Pfizer and all Covid vaccine developers (including Walensky of the CDC, Fauci of NIAID, and Francis Collins of the NIH) must step away from our children and only discuss this if they remove liability protection from the table. 

If they have no risk on the table, then we cannot take this chance as parents. Something then is not entirely proper about these vaccines in our children. If children are at such low risk, then it should be a problem for these officials and vaccine developers to remove their protection. With such low risk in children and no opportunity for benefit and just costs in terms of possible harms, then these vaccines are a ‘no go’ for our children.  

GLOBAL ISSUES/SUPPLY CHAINS

end

VACCINE INJURY//

Covid‐19 vaccination BNT162b2 temporarily impairs semen concentration and total motile count among semen donors – Gat – – Andrology – Wiley Online Library

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:42 AM (0 minutes ago)
to

Thank you Gates and Fauci!
These two have really screwed up the lives of so many people. And people wonder why public distrust is growing of Health officials and Government; it should not come as a surprise as people wake up to the over reaction and sanctions and vaccine mandates.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/andr.13209

Vaccine Impact

More Evidence of Population Reduction Effects of COVID Vaccines as Study Shows Decreased Sperm Counts in Men Following Vaccination

June 21, 2022 4:12 pm

On Friday, the journal Andrology published a peer-reviewed paper showing large decreases in sperm counts among men after the second dose of Pfizer’s mRNA Covid jab. Based on counts from men who donated sperm to three fertility clinics in Israel, this finding is devastating – medically and politically. It cuts to the heart of the hottest button question of all about the mRNA shots, whether they have hidden fertility risks. That issue has simmered since early 2021, following my reporting that data showed the shots had caused excess miscarriages in rats – and other reports showing that measurable amounts of vaccine reached the ovaries and testes in tests in rats. Ever since, media “fact-checkers” and public health authorities have dismissed and mocked the concerns and anyone who raises them. Now – after a half-billion men have received mRNA shots – the skeptics appear to be right. Again. The Israeli paper offers hard evidence that the vaccines may present a systemic risk to men’s sperm counts. What was a conspiracy theory is now just a theory. AGAIN.

Read More…

June 21, 2022 6:11 pm

A case study was published earlier this month in the Journal Français d’Ophtalmologie reporting an anterior uveitis case that developed after the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine in a 54-year-old female. We have previously reported on a case of a 7-year-old girl in Thailand who began oozing blood from her eyes and skin after receiving the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. Her case was published in CTN News. With the dangerous COVID-19 mRNA shots now being extended to babies and toddlers, I decided to search the Government VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Reporting System) database for cases filed for various eye disorders. For the past 18 months since the COVID-19 vaccines were given emergency use authorizations, there have been 17,858 cases of eye disorders reported, including 59 deaths, 1,232 permanent disabilities, 2,882 ER visits, and 1,466 hospitalizations, with 307 life threatening events. That’s an average of 992 cases of eye disorders reported each month following COVID-19 vaccine injections, and this is most certainly NOT an exhaustive list of eye disorders. But it does give us a sub-set of data to compare to all other FDA-approved vaccines for the previous 30 years (360 months) prior to the roll out of the COVID-19 vaccines. Using this exact same set of eye disorders, we find 11,898 cases filed for eye disorders over the course of 30 years following all other FDA-approved vaccines, which averages out to 33 cases a month. So that is 2,902% increase in eye disorders following the very dangerous COVID-19 vaccines, which the health “authorities” now want parents to inject into their babies.


Read More…



END

7. OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Russia Overtakes Saudi Arabia As China’s Top Oil Supplier

WEDNESDAY, JUN 22, 2022 – 09:00 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • Chinese imports of Russian crude surged by 55 percent in May as the world’s biggest importer of oil took advantage of major discounts.
  • Russia has now overtaken Saudi Arabia as China’s top oil supplier.
  • While Russia is sending lots more crude to Asia, it is unlikely that the Asian market can absorb all 4 million barrels that were going to Europe.

China imported a record volume of Russian crude in May, with arrivals surging by 55 percent to nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd). This has made Russia the top oil supplier to the world’s leading crude importer—putting it ahead of Saudi Arabia for the first time in a year and a half.

A record volume of cheap Russian oil, which sells at steep discounts to crude from other countries, made its way to Chinese refiners last month, according to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs cited by Reuters.

China imported 1.98 million bpd of Russian crude oil in May, up by 55 percent from May last year and up from 1.59 million bpd of Russian oil imported in April 2022, the data showed. 

The high purchases of Russian oil outstripped supply from Saudi Arabia, Russia’s partner in the OPEC+ deal. Chinese imports of Saudi crude averaged 1.84 million bpd in May, up by 9 percent compared to May 2021, but down from 2.17 million bpd imported in April, according to the data cited by Reuters. 

Thanks to the increased shipments of cheap crude to China, Russia became the top supplier to the world’s biggest oil importer for the first time in 19 months, per Reuters estimates. 

Russia has been increasingly selling its crude to China and India after Western buyers shun Russian oil and the EU—Russia’s top oil customer before the war in Ukraine—prepares to launch a phased-out embargo on seaborne imports from Russia by the end of the year. 

Russia is also estimated to have overtaken Saudi Arabia to become India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil in May. The average daily rate of Russian oil exports to India stood at 819,000 barrels last month, compared with 277,000 bpd in April.  

Half of Russia’s crude is headed east to AsiaThis compares to 75 percent of Russia’s oil exports which were being shipped to Europe earlier this year, Alexander Dyukov, chief executive of Gazprom Neft, said last week.

Still, analysts doubt that the Asian market can absorb all 4 million bpd of oil that Russia was sending to Europe before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

end

A drop in the bucket in costs:

Biden Will Call On Congress To Suspend Gas Tax For Three Months

WEDNESDAY, JUN 22, 2022 – 11:27 AM

With Independence Day less than two weeks away, US consumers have been financially battered by the highest consumer prices in four decades. The Biden administration needs to improve optics in the eyes of households as their policies fail to tame rampant inflation. That’s why President Biden will call on Congress on Wednesday afternoon to suspend federal gas and diesel taxes for the next three months. 

Bloomberg said the suspension of the federal fuel tax would lift the 18-cent tax per gallon on gasoline and 24-cent tax per gallon on diesel through the summer driving months. The national average for regular gas is around $5 a gallon, and diesel nears $6. 

“A federal gas tax suspension alone won’t fix the problem we face, but it will provide families a little breathing room as we continue working to bring down prices for the long haul,” The Hill quoted a senior administration official who spoke with reporters Tuesday. 

Breaking down proposed tax savings, 18-cent savings per gallon of regular gas for 12 gallons (average fuel tank size for a US car) will save the consumer a whopping $2.16 every time they fill up. 

The scheme reminded us of last year when inflation was beginning to rise ahead of July 4, and the Biden administration bragged the average price of a cookout was a whole 16-cent cheaper than the prior year.

Biden’s proposal also calls on states to suspend their gas taxes or provide rebates to consumers. 

“[Biden] believes that states, oil companies and retailers have a responsibility in this unique moment – to do their part to ameliorate Putin’s price hike,” the official said. “He’s calling on states to suspend their gas taxes or else find other ways to deliver the same relief, such as consumer rebates or relief payments.”

The move comes less than five months before the midterm elections as the president’s polling numbers are at record lows, only 11% of Americans believe President Putin is to blame for record-high gas prices, according to a Rasmussen poll published on Tuesday, the economy is teetering on recession, and stagflation threats continue to emerge.  

The official further said Biden would request refiners to increase capacity (remember the Biden administration disincentivized big oil from investing and expanding operations — all in the name of decarbonization — now the admin wants more oil). 

“He is also calling on the industry to put its record profits to work and step up with more supply and more refining capacity to bring down gas prices and specifically calling for major oil refineries to come to the table with concrete solutions when the secretary of energy convenes them later this week,” the official said. 

“And when the cost of oil does come down as it has over the last couple of weeks, the president is calling on retailers to properly lower their prices and pass the savings on to consumers,” the official continued.

The official also addressed concerns about the tax holiday draining the Highway Trust Fund, indicating Congress would be able to replenish the fund. 

Remember when the Biden administration said tapping the SPR would lower gas prices?  

The federal government doesn’t understand that a gas tax holiday will only increase demand for gas and diesel during the busy summer travel months as there’s minimal maneuvering by refiners to increase capacity. The only way to rebalance refined product markets is for higher prices to trigger demand destruction — a tax holiday will only delay that until after the fall elections. 

Finally, we note that when this was floated as an idea in March, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi dismissed it as “very showbiz” and argued it would not significantly impact consumers. 

President Biden set to announce a suspension of the Federal gas tax for the summer.

In March, Speaker Pelosi called a gas tax suspension plan “showbiz” and effectively said its a bad idea and won’t help.https://t.co/PR0M08z8bw— Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC) June 22, 2022

Additionally, in 2008, President Obama called a federal gas tax cut a “gimmick”, so we look forward to hearing the hypocrisy spin now that Biden has proposed it

end

USA refining capacity has sunk to decade lows due to Biden policies

(zerohedge)

EIA: US Refining Capacity Sinks To Near Decade Low

WEDNESDAY, JUN 22, 2022 – 08:42 AM

By Julianne Geiger Of OilPrice.com

Operable refining capacity in the United States hit a nearly decade low in 2022, the EIA’s latest Refining Capacity Report showed on Tuesday.

U.S. refining capacity fell this year to 17.94 million barrels per day as of January 1, according to the latest EIA data—down from 18.09 million bpd on January 1 last year. U.S. refining capacity is now the lowest it’s been since 2014.

The total number of operable refineries rose to 130, up from 129 last year, with the number of operating refineries increasing by 1 to 125.

Compared to operable U.S. refining capacity as of January 1, 2020, this year’s refining capacity has decreased by more than a million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million bpd during the week ending June 10, according to the EIA’s Petroleum Status Report published last Wednesday—that’s a decrease of 67,000 bpd over the previous week—running at 93.7% of operable capacity.

The United States has more refining capacity than any other country, although China’s refining capacity could overtake the United States’ yet this year—in fact, it may have already overtaken the United States.

Gasoline prices in the United States began ticking up in 2021, and with high refining utilization rates and low crude product inventories, the refining segment has been fingered as one of the biggest price culprits.

Chevron’s CEO Mike Worth said earlier this month that he doesn’t see any relief to the refining capacity issue in sight, even going so far as to suggest that the United States may not see any new refineries built, ever, given their long lead times and lengthy ROI combined with the uncertainty of the future of fossil fuels in general given climate concerns.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA/PAKISTAN

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0519 DOWN  0.0013 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 136.005   DOWN .268 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2251 DOWN   0.0014

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 39.52 POINTS DOWN 1.20%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  DOWN 551.25 PTS OR 2.56%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.28%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 551.25 PTS OR 2.56%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 39.52 PTS UP 1.20% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .28% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 96.76 OR 0.37%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1838.00

silver:$21.49

USA dollar index early WEDNESSAY morning: 104.25  UP 4  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.81%  UP 13  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.332% UP 11     AND 2/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.83%// UP 10   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.78  DOWN 7   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISESS TO +1.755%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0559 UP  0.0042    or 42 basis points

USA/Japan: 136.12 UP 1.023  OR YEN DOWN  102  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2278 UP 0.0025 OR 25  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0060 OR 60 BASIS pts  to 1.299236

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.6806  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.6869

TURKISH LIRA:  17.36  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.3332

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4  IN basis points from TUESDAY at  3.274% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.334 UP 5 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 104.005 DOWN 26   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 26.03 PTS OR  0.37%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 25.73  POINTS OR 0.19%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 42.92 PTS OR 0.73% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 48.50 OR 0.59%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 70.88 PTS OR  0.82%

WTI Oil price 111.76   12: EST

Brent Oil:  114.40  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  53.84  UP  1 & 18/10        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.755

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0567 UP   .0036   OR  up 36 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2268 UP .0005  or  5 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.17 down 0.147//YEN up 15 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2937 up 4 (CDN dollar down 4 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 105.71

Brent OIL:  111.02

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.145 down 16 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.236  down 16  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.34

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  53.15   UP  15/8 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 47.12 PTS OR .15 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 19.05 PTS OR .16%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 29.24 DOWN 0.95 PTS (3.15)%

GLD: 171.31 UP .68PTS OR 0.40%

SLV/ 19.76 DOWN .22 PTS OR 1.10%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Snore, Bonds Soar As Fed Fears Ease; There’s Just One Thing…

WEDNESDAY, JUN 22, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Fed Chair Powell actually sounded ‘hawkish-er’ during today’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, but the bid in bonds that started overnight drove rate-hike expectations lower and subsequent rate-cut expectations higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields ripped lower – erasing all of yesterday’s selling – with the short-end outperforming (3Y -17bps, 30Y -10bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields have erased 35bps of the 50bps spike post-CPI…

Source: Bloomberg

US futures were weak overnight but as soon as the cash market opened, the buying frenzy began ripping the US majors from decent losses to big gains on no real fundamental news. Nasdaq ran from -2.25% overnight top +1.5% ahead of the European close. Trouble started for stocks around 1430ET (Margin call time)…

For the second day in a row, a short-squeeze lifted the market to fill the post-CPI gap-down and failed…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended lower on the day after a big pump and dump (reversing lower as Europe opened)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended losses from yesterday morning, breaking back below $20,000

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed to end the day unchanged having ramped up to $1850 but unable to hold it…

Oil prices extended their recent downtrend with WTI briefly trading with a $101 handle ahead of tonight’s API data…

President Biden unveiled his cunning plan to lower taxes on gasoline… and wholesale gasoline prices went up…

But we do note that national average regular gas prices are down 6c over the past week… Mission Accomplished?

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, there is something serious happening behind the scenes:

The TED spread is blowing out…

Source: Bloomberg

Global broker credit risk is spiking…

Source: Bloomberg

And the demand for dollars is suddenly soaring…the cross-ccy basis swaps signal dollar liquidity is drying up…

Source: Bloomberg

So, whether or not we get a bear market rally short-squeeze here, the global financial system is ‘stressed’.

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

ii) USA DATA

END

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iii)a.  USA economic stories

A huge problem for the states: fentanyl entering the uSA through its southern border an unprecedented levels

(EpochTimes)

Fentanyl Entering US Through Southern Border at “Unprecedented Levels”: Rep. Higgins

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 10:20 PM

By J.M Phelps of The Epoch Times

Implementing a new law to punish traffickers of fentanyl and declaring deaths from the drug as a health crisis could curb the damage it is doing to the country.Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) speaks during a House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing on gun violence on Capitol Hill in Washington on June 8, 2022. (Andrew Harnik/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

The Epoch Times spoke to Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) about the growing fentanyl crisis in the United States. The Republican lawmaker represents Louisiana’s 3rd congressional district, which includes Lafayette Parish. According to the local coroner, there were 32 drug-related deaths in 2015, and fentanyl was not associated with any of them. However, by 2021, the number of deaths rose to 136 and fentanyl was responsible for 101.

According to the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), fentanyl is the driving force of a deadly nationwide epidemic. Preliminary data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that fentanyl was involved in 77 percent of overdose deaths in the United States in 2021, accounting for about 71,000 deaths.

“The fentanyl crisis the country is facing right now must be confronted at the local, state, and federal level,” Higgins said.

The country has to start working together, he said, adding that the nation needs to confront the border crisis and influx of fentanyl “without abusing law enforcement jurisdictional authority, without abusing sovereignty, [and] without abusing rights.”

“It all has to be done while operating within the parameters of the law and the Constitution,” said Higgins. Fentanyl trafficking, in particular, must be “attacked passionately and aggressively,” he added.

Title 42 Reinterpreted

The Biden administration had hoped to end Title 42 by the end of May. Title 42 was the Trump-era initiative put in place in March 2020 to slow the spread of COVID-19, allowing illegal immigrants to be quickly turned away at the southern U.S. border rather than processed at immigration detention facilities under Title 8 immigration law.

However, a Texas judge recently blocked the cancellation of the public health order that has been used to expel illegal migrants.

While Higgins is pleased with the extension, he said it is time for a “reinterpretation of Title 42 within the parameters of the Constitution.” According to the lawmaker, “the fentanyl crisis can now be more effectively defined as a health crisis than the COVID pandemic.”

“With regard to Title 42 enforcement,” Higgins said, “the definition of health crisis needs to be expanded to include the fentanyl crisis, [because] overdoes are certainly a threat to the health of tens of thousands of people.”

Stop the Flood

Higgins said, “Something has to be done to fight against the fentanyl entering [the United States] through the southern border.”

“We have lost operational control of the southern border months ago, and fentanyl is entering the country at unprecedented levels—and there’s no end in sight,” he added.

Continue reading at Epoch Times

END

iii b USA//inflation stories/log jams //SHORTAGES//etc/

USA is facing a huge logistic problem as costs escalate

 (Mark Solomon/Freightwaves)

Logistics Costs As A Percentage Of GDP Hit Highest Level In 13 Years

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 08:20 PM

By Mark Solomon of FreightWaves

The 33rd annual State of Logistics Report, the year-over-year report card of the U.S. business logistics system, confirmed empirically what everyone already knew: 2021 was nirvana or a nightmare depending on what one does for a living.

Total logistics costs, which measure how much was spent on transportation, warehousing and ancillary services such as support and administrative, soared 22.4% last year to nearly $1.85 trillion, according to the report. That was equal to 8% of the U.S. GDP, a level not seen since 2008, said the report, which was released by the trade group Council of Supply Management Professionals (CSCMP) Tuesday morning.

Demand spiked across every mode and service. Businesses desperate for reliable motor carrier capacity powered a 39.3% jump in spending on private fleets or dedicated contract carriage to $415.2 billion. Inventory carrying costs jumped 25% to $502 billion as surging warehouse demand and supply chain congestion filled facilities to overflowing. The capital costs of carrying mountains of inventory jumped 33.4%. 

Spending on waterborne services surged 23.6% as ocean carriers leveraged massive rate increases on international sea routes to make more money in 2021 than in the prior 20 years combined, the report said.

Spending on parcel-delivery services jumped 15.6% and produced a five-year compounded annual growth rate of 11.4%, the highest of all the report’s cost components.

All of this led to a fattening of carrier profits at a time when shippers felt the double whammy of shrinking margins and declining service levels, according to the report. Shippers of all types “longed for the days” when service levels that are now considered acceptable were viewed as major failures, the report said.

Through the report’s long history, a relatively high costs-to-GDP ratio reflected network inefficiencies that forced users to spend more to get goods to market. Network inefficiencies were certainly evident in 2021, along with an unprecedented surge in goods demand that is one of the legacies of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Given the events of the first half of 2022, it is clear that next year’s report will look different than this year’s. Consumer demand has cooled off in the wake of higher inflation and the waning effects of pandemic-related government stimulus. Rising interest rates will curtail spending even more. 

Consumers worried about cost increases and the possibility of a recession will not be spending nearly as freely this year as they did in the past two. More service-related consumption, especially in travel and entertainment, will cut into goods-spending activity.

Some of that change is showing up in the daily logistics ebb-and-flow. Ron Marotta, vice president of supply chain solutions for the Americas division of freight forwarding and contract logistics firm Yusen Logistics, said on a conference call with reporters last Friday that ocean freight shippers are increasingly looking to negotiate their carrier contracts as more liner capacity opens up. 

In a sign that ocean supply and demand might be returning to some form of balance, Yusen has worked off virtually all of its cargo backlogs, some of which have built up over two years, Marotta said. The overall environment, he said, has become “more favorable to shippers.”

While the dual misery of transport delays and higher rates may abate somewhat for shippers, the report’s authors cautioned that the pendulum will not abruptly swing back to capacity abundance and lower rates. E-commerce and last-mile delivery demand will remain elevated and some supply bottlenecks will not loosen easily, they wrote.

Higher borrowing costs will continue to push up the expense of holding the many billions of dollars of inventory sitting in warehouses and distribution centers. The already-complex task of managing a dizzying array of stock-keeping units will only be compounded by the higher interest expense, said Andy Moses, senior vice president of sales and solutions at 3PL Penske Logistics.

The continued upward march in interest rates will “expose any inefficient process management in the warehouse trade,” Moses said last Friday.

end

 

iv)swamp stories

end

King Report

The King Report June 22, 2022 Issue 6785Independent View of the News
  
US ban on imports from China’s Xinjiang to take effect on Tuesday
Under the regulations, firms will have to prove imports from the region are not produced using forced labour…(Uyghurs) https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61754796
 
Kellogg to focus on snacks with surprise three-way split
Kellogg said on Tuesday it would split into three independent companies… and focusing on expanding its snack business.  Shares of the company, which began life in 1894 when W.K Kellogg created Corn Flakes and became known around the world for its breakfast cereals, jumped 6% in premarket trading…
https://www.reuters.com/business/kellogg-split-into-three-independent-companies-2022-06-21/
 
Airlines canceled nearly 1,200 U.S. flights on Sunday and Monday, leaving passengers stranded and luggage piled up at airports across the country… ongoing shortages of pilots and flight crew… (Thanks to Covid vax mandates and resultant terminations?) https://t.co/54vaCG8D6E
 
The $/yen tumbled to 136.33, the lowest level since September 1998 (136.46).
 
U.S. Retail (Foot) Traffic Fell 4.9% for Fifth Straight Weekly Decline (Per SafeGraph) – Bloomberg
Home-improvement…a drop of 16.6%, and malls, department stores and apparel, with a decrease of 12.7%…Beauty had the only increase with a gain of 8.7%…Best Buy…58.2% decline, and Victoria Secret, with a decrease of 47.4% notched the biggest year-over-year drops…
    Dollar General had the topo year-over-year increase, at 9.3%, followed by ALDI, at 0.7%…
 
SafeGraph Retail Scorecard
https://www.safegraph.com/scorecard/retail
 
In our letter yesterday, we issued reasons that we thought stocks were ready to rally.  On Tuesday, offensive asset allocators replaced the defensive asset allocators that dominated expiry week.
 
Stocks and commodities soared while bonds got clobbered.  The dollar and gold declined smartly.
 
For 2022 to date, after expiry weeks that have been soft or down, stocks have rallied robustly on the session that ensues expiration.  This typically occurs when too many small & medium size traders get too long expiry calls.  As expiry nears, retail players try to liquidate before their calls expire.  This keeps pressure on stocks.  When the calls expire, the pressure is gone.  Pro traders now play for this dynamic.
 
ESUs soared on Monday and Tuesday.  ESUs hit a peak near 5 ET.  They then sank 23 handles over the next four hours.  After a modest rally into the NYSE open, ESUs went nearly vertical, soaring 49 handles in 95 minutes.  The incontinent buying exhausted traders.  ESUs then retreated until a modest Noon Balloon appeared.  At 13:11, ESUs rolled over.  The pre-last hour rally began at 14:50 ET.  ESUs hit a daily high of 3783.75 at 15:13 ET, only two handles above the 11:02 ET peak.  ESUs then rolled over gently until they broke lower at 15:50 ET.
 
The frantic buying early on Tuesday ended by 11:02 ET.  The remainder of the session was a snooze.  This strongly implies that traders of various classes panicked, and there were few organic buyers.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Equities soared on post-expiry buying, trader incontinence, and offensive asset allocation
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds got hammered (-1 8/32)
Commodities rallied smartly
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How much of the 1-day NYSE rally and 2-day ESU surge mitigate the oversold condition?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3753.25
Previous session High/Low3779.65; 3715.31
 
@kat_lindley: Data compiled by the Intl Olympic Committee show 1,101 sudden deaths in athletes <age 35 between 1966-2004, avg annual rate of 29 across all sports.  March 2021-March 2022 at least 769 athletes have suffered cardiac arrest, collapse, and/or have died on the field worldwide.
    Among EU FIFA (football/soccer ball) athletes, sudden death increased by 420% in 2021.  Historically, about 5 soccer players died while playing the game each year.  January-November 2021, 21 FIFA players died from sudden death.
 
ISRAELI STUDY: Pfizer vaccine temporarily impairs semen concentration and total motile count https://t.co/D4MSU8NthE
 
@bennyjohnson: BIDEN: “We need more money. We don’t just need more money for vaccines for children, we need more money to plan for the second pandemic. There’s gonna be another pandemic.” (Need an excuse for mail-in voting)  https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1539354491690045441
 
We bought some stock in a mostly dormant account we have with JP Morgan.  The commission was $1/share!!!  We will adjust accordingly.
 
Today – Tuesday’s incontinent buying of US equities and the 2-day ESU surge look like another panic rally in the bear market.  Equities were historically oversold; but rabid buying by traders of various classes have revoked the short-term oversold condition on equities.
 
The frenetic short covering on Tuesday was aided by concerns that Powell could be more dovish than usual when he speaks at the Senate Banking Committee (9:30 ET) today due to the politics and optics.
 
If stocks rally early, there should be a spirited retrenchment after Powell is finished.  If Powell is more hawkish than expected, equity traders will be unhappy.
 
ESMs are -11.00, and USUs are +19/32 at 20:20 ET.  Are defensive asset allocators back in the market?
 
Expected economic data: Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 9, 12 & 13:30 ET, Powell delivers Semi-annual Testimony at Senate Banking Committee 9:30 ET, Chicago Fed Pres Evans 12:50 ET, Phil Fed Pres Harker 13:30 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4102; 100-day MA: 4263; 150-day MA: 4392; 200-day MA: 4417
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,727; 100-day MA: 33,548; 150-day MA: 34,236; 200-day MA: 34,454
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4928.42 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4251.19 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3875.35 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3688.94 triggers a sell signal
 
@RNCResearch: BIDEN: “You see Dr. Jha, see that guy right there? He’s the guy that’s running the CDC for me these days.”  Rochelle Walensky is the director of the CDC. Ashish Jha is Biden’s COVID response coordinator.   https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1539317098899308544
 
It’s bad enough to be ignorant or ineptly ill-informed, but to be strident about it is…
 
Police Report Proves Plainclothes Electronic Surveillance Unit Members Were Embedded Among Jan. 6 Protesters – According to a report—First Amendment Demonstrations, issued Jan. 3, 2021, by Chief of Police Robert Contee of the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD), Homeland Security Bureau, Special Operations Division, obtained exclusively by The Epoch Times—the MPD began to activate Civil Disturbance Unit (CDU) platoons on Jan. 4, 2021. Full activation of 28 platoons was scheduled to occur on the following two days…  https://t.co/4lKljXsJUp
 
Democrats’ unforced errors on Jan. 6 probe expose dual systems of security and justice
Case against Trump muddied by episodes in which Democrats helped a comedian’s team breach building security, defaced property and got crossways with evidence the police gathered.
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/democrats-unforced-errors-jan-6-probe-expose-dual-systems-security-justice
 
@JackPosobiec: I don’t know who needs to hear this but G Gordon Liddy himself admitted the Watergate break-in was about covering up a political honeypot operation the CIA was running out of the Columbia Plaza apartments down the street.
 
Texas official says Uvalde classroom door was unlocked but no officers tried to open it as they waited for keys: Abject Failure – Texas public safety chief says Uvalde police could have stopped Robb Elementary shooting within three minutes
https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-official-uvalde-classroom-door-unlocked-shooting-officers-waited-keys
 
US Navy Releases Bizarre Training Video Urging Recruits to Create Pronoun “Safe Space”
China and Russia are laughing.
https://summit.news/2022/06/21/us-navy-releases-bizarre-training-video-urging-recruits-to-create-pronoun-safe-space/
 
@roddreher: Americans often have to read @DailyMail to understand what really happened when a story involves race, sex, or 

Greg Hunter interviewing 

SEE YOU ON THURSDAY

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