JULY 14// USA CPI UP A HUGE 9.1% Y/Y:GOLD CLOSED DOWN $28.75 TO $1708.40//SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TO $18.36//PLATINUM DOWN $16.30 TO $843.65//PALLADIUM DOWN $125.70 TO $1914.80//EGON VON GREYERZ: A MUST READ// LARRY MACDONALD: ALSO AN IMPORTANT READ//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY/VACCINE IMPACT//BANK RUNS CONTINUE IN CHINA AS WELL INDIVIDUALS REFUSING TO PAY MORTGAGE PAYMENTS/ITALY: PRIME MINISTER DRAGHI TO RESIGN AS FRAGMENTATION OF DEBT HEIGHTENS//HOLLAND: CLIMATE MANDATES PLAYING HAVOC TO THEIR ECONOMY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED IN SRI LANKA/GERMANY TO STOP COAL SHIPMENTS AUG 1 AND OIL SHIPMENTS BY DEC 31//MACRON DEFEATED IN HIS BID FOR VACCINE PASSPORTS/PPI RISES HUGELY//JPMORGAN INCOME STATEMENT REPORTS THAT THIS QUARTER IS DIRE//ALSO BANK OF AMERICA//INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE HUGE AS WELL/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1708.40 DOWN $28.75 

SILVER: $18.36 DOWN 88 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1710.75

SILVER: $18.44

Bitcoin morning price:  $19,716 UP 13

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20.676. UP 973 

Platinum price: closing DOWN $16.30 to $843.65

Palladium price; closing DOWN $125.70  at $1914.80

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,734.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/13/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/15/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 H HSBC 93
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 360 316
690 C ABN AMRO 60
800 C MAREX SPEC 3
880 C CITIGROUP 12
905 C ADM 1


TOTAL: 423 423
MONTH TO DATE: 4,893

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan: 316/423 

_____________________________________________________________________________________ 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT 423  NOTICE(S) FOR 482300 Oz//1.3157  TONNES)

total notices so far: 4893 contracts for 489300 oz (15.219 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

111 NOTICE(S) FILED 555,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  2860 :  for 14,300,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROMTHE GLD///

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 513.671 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2151  CONTRACTS TO 144,410   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  $0.24 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.24) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 2501 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 720,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / //  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -39

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 9 days, total 8197  contracts:  40.535 million oz  OR 4.503 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (910 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 40.535 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 40.535 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2151 WITH OUR  $0.24 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 350 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A POOR INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 15.22 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 720,000 OZ  //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2501 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 12.505 MILLION  OZ WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE..

 WE HAD 111  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  555,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 6941 CONTRACTS  TO 535.552 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: —1967 CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $10.55//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 36,600 OZ 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $10.55 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2168  OI CONTRACTS 6.743 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  6941 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 535,552

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2168 CONTRACTS  WITH 6941 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4723 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 201 CONTRACTS OR 0.6251 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4773) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (6941,): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  2168 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 36,600 OZ QUEUE JUMP   3) MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

50,019 CONTRACTS OR 5,001,900 OZ OR 155.58  TONNES 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5557 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 155.58 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  155.58/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.39% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 155.58 TONNES 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE    NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2151 CONTRACT OI TO 144,410 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 350 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 350  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:350 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 2151  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 350 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A VERY  STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2501   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.505 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF  $0.24 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

  SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.85 PTS OR 0.08%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.74 OR 0.22%    /The Nikkei closed UP 164.62 OR % 0.62.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.60%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7553    /Oil DOWN TO 94.41 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 97.83 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7755 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7718: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER  

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6941 CONTRACTS TO 535,552 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $10.55  IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A  GOOD SIZED EFP (4773 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4773 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :4773 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4773 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN FAIR SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 2168  CONTRACTS IN THAT 6941 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 6941  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $10,55.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY   (16.618),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 16.618 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $10.55) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF A FEW  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED LOSS  OF 6.743 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (16.618 TONNES)

WE HAD -1967  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2168 CONTRACTS OR  216,800  OZ OR 6.743 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 318,260/// good/

final gold volumes/yesterday  408,347 / very strong

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 14

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz322,976.873 oz
Manfra
Brinks
Int. Delaware
Loomis
Delaware32 kilobars and
76 kilobars Delaware//.Loomis
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today423  notice(s)42,300 OZ
1.3157 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)450 contracts 45,000 oz
1.3996 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month4893 notices
489,300 OZ
15.219 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0 

total deposits: nil oz

5 customer withdrawals:

i)Out of Brinks 2977.97 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 1028.832. oz (32 kilobars)

iii) Out of Int. Delaware: 199,878.465 oz

iii) Loomis:  2443.476 oz (76 kilobars)

iv) out of Manfra; 116,708.130 oz

total withdrawal: 322,976.873   oz

ADJUSTMENTS:2 dealer to customer

Brinks:  86,572.695 oz

Manfra:  55,395.792 oz

1  adjustment customer to dealer: jPM

42,246.414 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an  oi of 873 contracts LOST 115 contracts . We had

481 notices filed on Wednesday so we gained a HUGE 366  contracts or an additional 33,600 oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 28,503 contracts down to 277,197 contracts

Sept. gained 26 contracts to 2524 contracts.

We had 423 notice(s) filed today for  42,300 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  360 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 423 contract(s) of which 316  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4893) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY 873  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 423 x 100 oz per contract equals 497,700 OZ  OR 16.618 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4893) x 100 oz+   (873)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (423} x 100 oz} which equals 497,700 oz standing OR 16.618 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  16.618 TONNES  (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY (  NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,443,533.842 oz   76.00 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  32,147,458.538 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,744,578.019  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 16,372,850.519 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 13,29,317.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 421 tonnes 

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 14

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,592,325.028  oz
JPM
Loomis
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory3,492,673.200oz
CNT
JPM
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)111CONTRACT(S)
555,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)184 contracts (920,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2971 contracts 14,855,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 1,189,525.400 oz

ii) Into CNT: 1,697,410.980 oz

iii0 Into Loomis 605,756.820

total deposit:  3,492,673.200   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 175.749 million oz/341.277 million =51.52% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of CNT: 951.200 oz

ii) Out of loomis  55,008.828 oz

iii)Out of JPMorgan: 1,182,454.300 oz 

iv) out of Manfra: 354,861.900 oz

total withdrawal  1,592,325.028         oz

 adjustments: 2/dealer to customer

i) JPMorgan:  467,315.300 oz

ii)Manfra 35,478.820 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 62.196 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 341.277 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 298 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 25 CONTRACTS HAD 169 NOTICES FILED

ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 144 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL  720,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

AUGUST GAINED 8 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1144

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 1297 CONTRACTS UP TO 117,981 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 111 for  555,000 oz

Comex volumes:79,470// est. volume today//   strong

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 67,557 contracts ( good )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2971 x 5,000 oz = 14,855,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(298) and the number of notices served upon today 111  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 2971 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (298)  – number of notices served upon today (111) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 15,775,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROMTHE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1019.79 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A IWTHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 513.671 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

A must read.

Egon Von Greyerz/

Beware Of Markets Full Of Fool’s Gold

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

Fool’s Gold comes in many guises, whether it is in fake paper money, Ponzi investment schemes, fake and manipulated gold derivatives, Bitcoin or just fake gold discoveries in Uganda, all of which are discussed in this article.

The tendency of an inconvertible paper money is to create fictitious wealth, bubbles, which by their bursting, produce inconvenience. – Lord Liverpool 1810 (UK Prime Minister 1812-27)

The elegant and understated courtesy of the English is well known. “Inconvenience” is for an early 19th century aristocrat what a modern Englishman today would call “bloody mess.

Confucius described this trait already 2,500 years ago:

The noble-minded are calm and steady. Little people are forever fussing and fretting.” – Confucius

As we know from history, paper money doesn’t just cause an inconvenience, as Lord Liverpool said, but a collapse of the monetary system and of the economy involved.

In today’s decadent and morally bankrupt world, leaders tend to be “fussing and fretting little people” who frantically “create fictitious money and wealth”. This is why, as we enter the final stage of this era, we will see more sackings of leaders (Boris Johnson), assassinations (Abe) and escapes (Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka President).

Social unrest and civil wars will sadly be commonplace too.

The combination of weak leaders and fake money is a fitting end to a major economic cycle. It actually couldn’t end in any other way.

But the world has of course not yet seen the end of the current era, which started with private bankers taking control of the US monetary system in 1913.

Some of us believe we have a good idea how this will all end, but only future historians and other observers will tell us the exact course of events.

The Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises gave us a very likely outcome of how the financial system will end:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

IMPOSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL BANKERS TO TURN OFF THE MONEY SPIGOTS

Von Mises first alternative of a voluntary abandonment is of course totally unacceptable to current governments and central bankers. Don’t believe for one moment that Powell or Lagarde would contemplate turning off the tap that has kept them and their money forging friends in power for decades.

Yes, they will make gestures like the Fed is now attempting with QT (quantitative tightening). So the balance sheet of the Fed has come down $70 billion since mid March –  BIG DEAL!

That’s a 0,7% reduction in 3 1/2 months for a balance sheet that has grown by 240% or $5.3 trillion since end of August 2019. In 2006 the Fed balance sheet was $900 billion and today it is $9 trillion, a mere 10-fold increase.

Let’s just remind ourselves that the current problems in the world did not start with Covid in early 2020, but with irreparable damage to the financial system which central banks couldn’t conceal beyond August 2019.

The beginning of the end of this 100+ year financial era was the Great Financial Crisis -GFC- which started in 2006.

As I have illustrated in many articles, the cast producing this damage to the financial system changes, but their actions are all the same. Through the privately owned Fed, they are all working for their own “charitable” purpose of personal gain and control for the private bankers.

AFTER US THE FLOOD

After Us The Flood is what Louis XV mistress Madame de Pompadour told the French King after they lost a critical battle against Prussia in the 18th century. That event was the beginning of the downfall of France and the French Revolution.

AFTER US THE FLOOD – Après Nous Le Déluge

Since 2006, the balance sheets of the major central banks (Swiss National Bank, Bank of China, Bank of Japan, ECB, Fed) have grown exponentially from under $5 trillion to $36 trillion – a 7-fold increase!

GLOBAL DEBT UP 200X SINCE 1971 AND GOING TO 2,000X

But we must remember that irresponsible debt creating central banks are only part of the problem. The real money printers are the commercial banks. So if we look at total global debt, it has grown from $100 trillion in 2000 to $300 trillion today. In 2006 (not shown) total global debt was $120 trillion.

As the graph below shows, total global debt including derivatives and  unfunded liabilities is over $3 quadrillion. When the financial system crashes, these derivatives will prove worthless as counterparties fail and the central banks will print $2-3 quadrillion in a futile attempt to save the banks and the system.

Sensible historic comparisons are no longer possible since the debt creation folly of the last 50 years is totally unprecedented in history.

In 1971, when Nixon closed the gold window, global debt was $1.5T.

After 50 years of irresponsible monetary policies debt has grown 200X. When we reach a total debt of $3 quadrillion in the next 5 to 10 years, with the assistance of the derivative collapse, the increase will be 2,000X since 1971.

I can hear some people calling this sensational scaremongering. But I am sure that these  people would have said the same about the 200X debt expansion since 1971.

THE COMING EXPONENTIAL MOVE WILL BE TERMINAL

Also, it is important to understand how exponential moves happen. I explained this in an article from 2017 called Only Contrarians Will Survive

In that article I illustrated that exponential moves really move exponentially and that they are terminal:

“Imagine a football stadium which is filled with water. Every minute one drop is added. The number of drops doubles every minute. Thus it goes from 1 to 2, 4, 8 16 etc. So how long would it take to fill the entire stadium? One day, one month or a year? No it would be a lot quicker and only take 50 minutes! That in itself is hard to understand but even more interestingly, how full is the stadium after 45 minutes? Most people would guess 75-90%. Totally wrong. After 45 minutes the stadium is only 7% full! In the final 5 minutes the stadium goes from 7% full to 100% full.”

So for the same reason, debt is likely to grow exponentially in the next 5-10 years, as the world experiences hyperinflation. But we must also remember that as commodities such as food and energy plus many raw materials like precious metals go up exponentially, all the bubble assets (stocks, bonds and property) will implode in real terms. See my recent article “Concurrent Deflation and Hyperinflation Will Ravage The World

We could of course blame Nixon for the debt disaster that the world is now in. But that would be too simple. Governments have throughout history interfered with the laws of nature and the simple law of supply and demand.

As clueless central bankers (and before that governments) interfere in the natural ebb and flood waves of the economy, these natural cycle movements become extreme tops and bottoms. These excessive moves lead to speculative asset and credit bubbles (inflation/hyperinflation) followed by a deflationary collapse or implosion just as von Mises said (see quote above).

As I explain above, it is totally natural that the end of major cycles creates exponential moves, as we have experienced in this century in both debt and assets such as stock and property.

But what few people realise is that the frantic money printing and debt creation which has taken place in this century indicate the end of a 100 year old monetary era.

The next few years will be like the final 5 Stadium minutes  when the debt goes up exponentially by say 14X (the Stadium going from 7% to 100% full) before it all collapses.

CRYPTOS – FOOL’S GOLD

These final moves also lead to the creation of instruments that become “fool’s gold”.

In my view, cryptocurrencies are a form of fool’s gold. Cryptos might have been a wonderful speculative investment for a few investors, but many who entered late have experienced losses of 70 to 90% so far.

As far as I am concerned, and the investors we advise, cryptos have nothing to do with wealth preservation and will certainly never replace gold. Bitcoin is a binary investment that might go to $1 million but it could just as well go to ZERO, so obviously not a good risk.

“Blockchain is a fraud” – Brazilian professor

A Brazilian Professor of computer science, Jorge Stolfi, tweeted in May this year:

“Every computer scientist should be able to see that cryptocurrencies are totally dysfunctional payment systems and that “blockchain technology” (including “smart contracts”) is a technological fraud.”

Stolfi explains how he and 1,500 specialists, including Harvard lecturers and Google’s principal Cloud engineer, delivered a critical letter to the US congress, warning about crypto currencies.

He explains in an interview why cryptos are a pyramid scheme similar to Madoff.

Stolfi: “These pyramid schemes collapse when there are no more fools to fool.”

He also says that Bitcoin won’t exist in 20 years. He calls blockchain a technological fraud that can never be used as a payment system, due to its snail processing speed compared to Visa for example.

El Salvador and Fool’s Gold

El Salvador clearly believed in Fool’s Gold as they announced last year that they would be the first country to accept Bitcoin as legal tender. They were also going to fund the project by issuing $1 billion in bonds secured with Bitcoin. That project is obviously delayed after BTC fall of 2/3. Bitcoin City would be built and would have no taxes except VAT. And now it seems the City would have no revenues either after the BTC losses.

Sounds like Shangri-la turned to hell to me. Sadly for them, they have lost more on their BTC purchases than the country can afford to lose and their debt is now JUNK.

All the Bitcoiners who hailed El Salvador as the future model of money and went there on Pilgrimages are now very quiet.

Well, Ponzi schemes always collapse without fail and it seems that this might be the destiny of Bitcoin and other Cryptos. Most of them are down 70% or more on their way to oblivion.

We will certainly stick to physical gold!

Fool’s Gold in Uganda

So Uganda has officially declared that they have discovered 31 million tonnes of gold ore deposits, which is expected to produce 320,000 tonnes of refined gold!

Let’s remind ourselves that all the gold ever mined in history is around 190,000 tonnes. So this find would treble the gold in the world.

Sounds to me like another Fool’s Gold story. Uganda is quite notorious for corruption and fraud. They clearly hope to borrow major amounts of money based on this so-called find, which is in no way properly proven or documented.

Or maybe this comes from the Bitcoin crowd. They are of course elated by this “fake” gold discovery since it makes BTC much more unique with a limit of 21 million coins issued.

Or could the Ugandan government have confused tonnes with ounces?

STOCK MARKETS FOOL’S GOLD –  COLLAPSE IMMINENT

Current asset markets and especially stocks have also turned into fool’s gold. Investors now believe that stocks can only go up and that the Fed and other central banks will be there to save them indefinitely. How shocked these investors will soon be!

As I often say, forecasting markets is a mug’s game and that is why we prefer to focus on risk. And as I outlined in my last article, (“The Implosion Will Be Fast, Hold Onto your Seats”) risk is now extreme, both fundamentally and technically.

Most stock markets in the world are already down 20-30% in 2022. What few investors realise at this stage is that the fall we have seen so far is not just a normal correction but the beginning of a long-term secular bear market with dramatic falls to come.

Technically it looks like the next major fall is imminent. So protecting risk by being out of stocks is strongly advisable.

Precious metals are in a small correction of a major long term bull market which is the inevitable collapse of the currency system. Gold might come down initially with stocks by $100 or so but the next major move of gold up will be both substantial and long term.

Remember that physical precious metals must be owned, not as a speculative investment,  but as the best form of wealth preservation you can hold.

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

A must read.

The major players behind the criminal activity of JPMorgan (under RICO charges) are before the court.

Edmonds describes what spoofing  (and everything else) did to cheat markets. This will be collaborated with their chat room discussions with other bankers

(Bloomberg/GATA) 

JPMorgan gold desk’s ‘spoofing’ cheated market, former trader testifies

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-07-13 11:06Section: Daily Dispatches

By Tom Schoenberg and Eddie Spence
Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Wednesday, July 13, 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-gold-desk-cheated-market-211639062.html

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s gold trading and sales team was so focused on making money that they scammed the market for years with so-called spoofing trades, according to a former colleague who testified at the trial of three former bank employees charged with fraud.

“Our job was to do whatever it takes to make money,” and using spoof trades to manipulate prices for all sorts of precious metals was an almost daily method for generating profit, said John Edmonds, who worked as a trader at the bank until 2017.

“Everyone at the time did it on the desk and it worked.”

Edmonds is testifying against his former boss, Michael Nowak, the longtime head of the trading desk, gold trader Gregg Smith and hedge funds salesman Jeffrey Ruffo. Edmonds told a federal jury in Chicago on Tuesday that the team wasn’t just buying and selling precious metals, but systematically cheating to help themselves and their top clients over the course of the decade that Edmonds worked as a trader. 

Edmonds described how he learned to spoof at JPMorgan. If he wanted to sell at a higher price, he’d put orders in above the current market price, and then place a huge orders to buy at higher prices that he’d cancel before they could be executed. “I wanted to drive the price where I wanted it to go” by creating a false indication of demand, he said.  

While the technique didn’t always work, it was successful enough that everyone on the trading desk used it several times a week, Edmonds said. 

“If we wanted to buy low, we could,” he said. “If we wanted to sell high, we could.” 

Edmonds is the first of a handful of cooperators slated to testify that prosecutors say will bolster their claim that Nowak, Smith and Ruffo participated in a racketeering enterprise from 2008 to 2016. Edmonds was the first on the precious-metals desk to admit to crimes and secretly cooperated against former colleagues. He pleaded guilty to conspiracy and commodities fraud charges related to spoofing in 2018.  

Traders on Nowak’s desk engaged in spoofing as a core business practice, doing it more than 50,000 times over nearly a decade, prosecutors allege, though the jury will only hear about a tiny portion of those. Lawyers for the three said the government’s case is based on a misreading of evidence and the reliance on witnesses, like Edmonds, who are testifying in order obtain light punishments. If convicted of all charges, the three face decades in prison.

Edmonds, a Brooklyn native with a degree from St. Johns University in Queens, New York, joined JPMorgan’s precious-metals desk in 2009 at a salary of about $80,000. Edmonds’s supervisors and more senior members on the desk showed him how to layer trades, he told the jury, adding that it was understood on the desk that this was the way to trade precious-metals futures.

“I saw people trading for 20 years doing this,” Edmonds said. “How could I not do it?” Among members of the team, the use of spoofing techniques “was expected,” he said, adding that he watched both Smith and Nowak execute spoof trades to fill client orders at favorable prices. 

Edmonds said he never reported anyone for violating the bank’s compliance policy on trading. When asked why not, he told the jury: “I would have been fired. This was my dream job.”

Prosecutors on Friday described the trading desk as a small area with no walls or doors where Nowak, Edmonds and the others sat shoulder to shoulder, just a few feet from one another. Lucy Jennings, a Justice Department fraud prosecutor, told the jury that everyone on the team “could see and hear what everyone is doing.”

David Meister, a lawyer for Nowak, told the jury that Edmonds was “eager to please” but that his trading skills “didn’t cut it” and his job was eliminated.

Edmonds was notable even among the JPMorgan traders. At times he had placed orders with as many as 400 contracts on the opposite side of a genuine one. Edmonds pleaded guilty for transactions involving silver futures.

Earlier on Tuesday, jurors heard testimony from Christopher Jackman, a consultant at Monument Economics Group LLC who was hired by the DOJ for $1.4 million to analyze CME data and document what the government claims are spoof trades, along with chat logs from members of the JPMorgan precious-metals desk.

Jackman described on instance in 2010, when CME data show Smith placed buy orders for five gold futures contracts at 50 cents below the best bid price, and then quickly followed with another 170 sell orders. At the time, Smith’s sell orders represented more than half of the visible order book on the market, Jackman said. Prices fell, Smith executed his five buy orders, and then canceled all 170 sell orders before they could be executed, all in the span of about three seconds, Jackman said.

In data from January 2012, data show Nowak put in orders to sell five gold contracts valued at around $800,000, followed by orders to buy 80 contracts valued at $13 million, which at the time accounted for more than a third of the orders visible to the market, Jackman said. After prices rose, Nowak executed all five sell orders and canceled all the buy orders, Jackman said, adding that the entire episode lasted less than 15 seconds.

—–   

The case is US v. Smith et al, 19-cr-00669, US District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).

END

Pam and Russ say crypto and blockchain are shams

(Wall Street on Parade/Pam and Russ Martens)

Pam and Russ Martens: Brightest tech minds say crypto and blockchain are shams

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-07-13 11:19Section: Daily Dispatches

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Wednesday, Junly 13, 2022

The letter is a punch in the gut to the Wall Street underwriters who have brought billions of dollars of crypto related companies to the public markets, most of which have now collapsed in price. 

It makes the billionaire venture capitalists who have invested billions in crypto startups look like fools. And it renders the big-name celebrities who have promoted this garbage in TV commercials look like the shills that they are.

The letter was sent to key members of Congress and to the chairs of the Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committees. It is signed by more than 1,600 computer scientists, software engineers, and technologists from around the world. 

There are 45 signatories who currently work at Google; 19 who work at Microsoft; and 11 employed at Apple. (Those three companies currently have a collective market capitalization of more than $5.75 trillion; they can afford to hire the best and the brightest.) 

There are signatories that are Ph.Ds from the most prestigious universities, including the University of Oxford and MIT. And all 1,600 have signed a letter that says this about crypto and blockchain …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

END

Quite a case: Litigation over that 31 tonnes of Venezuelan gold resumes in London court

(Reuters/GATA)

Litigation over Venezuelan gold resumes in London court

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-07-13 21:35Section: Daily Dispatches

By Kirstin Ridley and Marc Jones
Reuters
Wednesday, July 13, 2022

LONDON — A long-running legal battle between Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaido over who should hold the key to more than $1.5 billion of gold stored at the Bank of England resumed today at the London High Court.

The UK Supreme Court ruled last year that Guaido should be recognised as the Latin American country’s head of state, taking a lead from the British government’s position, and that he had the authority to determine the future of the 31 tonnes of bullion

The High Court will now grapple with the novel question, over a four-day trial, about how to treat rulings by the Venezuelan Supreme Tribunal of Justice that say Guaido’s appointments to an “ad hoc” central bank board are invalid.

“At stake is the question of whether the English courts can sit in judgment on the validity of decisions made by another sovereign nation’s highest court,” said Sarosh Zaiwalla, a partner at law firm Zaiwalla & Co., who is representing the Maduro-led Banco Central de Venezuela. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelan-gold-legal-battle-resumes-london-2022-07-13/

END 

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: 

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7553

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7718

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 46.74 PTS OR  0.22%

2. Nikkei closed UP 164.62 OR 0.62%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL RED 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  108.50/Euro FALLS TO 1.0006

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.227/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 138.89/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.188%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.40% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.35%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.53//

3j Gold at $1713.00 silver at: 18.60  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN  0  AND 9/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 58.36

3m oil into the 94 dollar handle for WTI and  97 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 137.07DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9835– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9841well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.923 UP 2  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.084  UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.48

Futures Tumble As Dollar Hits Record High; JPM, Morgan Stanley Slide

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 08:24 AM

US futures were already sliding fast as the reality of the Fed’s upcoming 100bps rate hike was fully appreciated by the market, as even Goldman was shocked by the kneejerk move higher yesterday, saying “Does it makes sense for mkt to move higher after a 9.1% print and BOC hiking by 100bps…of course not…but that was max pain trade today and this market seeks max pain.”

Well, this morning the max pain was clearly lower, as US equity futures fell along with stocks in Europe and Asian, while the Bloomberg dollar index rose to a record Thursday, surpassing the record hit during the covid 2020 crash when the Fed launched unlimited swap lines to ease the global dollar crunch…

… after high US inflation hardened expectations for more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening that could trigger a recession.

S&P 500 futures tumbled more than 1%, down almost 200 points since Friday, as the US second-quarter earnings season got underway. All risk assets were lower, as well as gold and oil, while all non-USD currencies are getting steamrolled by the relentless surge in the dollar. 10Y yields dropped to 2.93% after rising just shy of 3.00% overnight. The inversion between two-year and 10-year yields — a potential recession indicator — is the deepest since 2000

But wait there’s more, because while markets are freaking out over soaring inflation, Fed hikes and crashing earnings, Europe is about to enter the 9th circle of hell: France’s Macron warns that citizens and companies will need to reduce energy usage as Germany reports that gas storage is already being withdrawn, even before peak usage in the winter. Meanwhile, Italian bonds and banks are tumbling amid speculation Mario Draghi’s government is about to collapse as coalition partner Five Star threatens to pull out.

Looking at premarket movers, JPMorgan plunged more than 5% in premarket trading after reporting results that missed analyst  expectations. Tesla also dipped after the company’s top artificial-intelligence executive and an architect of its Autopilot self-driving system announced plans to depart the maker of electric vehicles and as Morgan Stanley makes “material” cuts to its forecasts across its auto portfolio. Some other notable premarket movers:

  • Theravance Biopharma (TBPH US) shares jump as much as 25% in premarket trading after the biotech firm agrees to sell royalty interests in Trelegy Ellipta to Royalty Pharma.
  • ContraFect (CFRX US) sinks as much as 77% in US premarket trading after the biotech company said that the Data Safety Monitoring Board recommended stopping its Exebacase phase 3 study.
  • Netflix’s (NFLX US) decision to pick Microsoft (MSFT US) as a technology and sales partner for its new advertising-supported streaming service was a surprise to the industry. Analysts say the move makes sense. Netflix slips 1% in premarket trading, Microsoft -0.9%.

As discussed yesterday, Fed officials will be debating a historic one percentage-point rate hike later this month in an attempt to combat inflation. Markets price in 69% odds that the Fed will raise interest rates by 100 basis points when it meets July 26-27, which would be the largest increase since the Fed started directly using overnight interest rates to conduct monetary policy in the early 1990s. Technology stocks will be in focus as higher rates mean a bigger discount for the present value of future profits, hurting growth stocks with the highest valuations.

A 100 basis points hike is now likely and the “inflation reading should also raise the odds of recession, which we now estimate is likely sooner rather than later and possibly more severe,” said Tiffany Wilding, an economist at Pacific Investment Management Co.

“The market has already priced in the unexpected extreme tightening, so there isn’t that much more the Fed can do to prepare the markets,” said Mehvish Ayub, a senior strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “We need to position portfolios accordingly and expect volatility to continue as it has since the beginning of the year,” she said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

“It is clear that central banks around the world are laser-focused on fighting the entrenched inflation they helped to create, growth-be-damned,” said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific Ltd. “US markets are pricing in faster Fed tightening, and a recession is on the way imminently.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 index slumped 1.2%. DAX outperforms peers, dropping 0.9%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 2.3%. Miners, energy and telecoms are the worst-performing Stoxx 600 sectors. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Ericsson tumbles as much as 12% to the lowest level since March 2020, after a mixed quarterly report with revenue ahead of expectations but margin and earnings missing estimates.
  • Sabre Insurance plunged more than 30% after warning that everything related to an insurance claim — the car parts, paint, labor and the cost of replacing the vehicle — has risen faster than expected.
  • Peers Admiral and Direct Line dropped 13% and 7.9%, respectively.
  • Hugo Boss shares rise as much as 3.2% to the highest since late February after what analysts say was a “blow- out” second-quarter for the luxury apparel firm.
  • Entain rises as much as 5.2%, rallying after last week’s heavy losses, as the owner of the Ladbrokes and Coral betting brands publishes a video updating on the progress of Enlabs since last year’s acquisition of the firm.
  • Technogym shares fall as much as 6.8% as Goldman Sachs cuts its PT on the Italian gym-equipment maker on a weaker medium-term growth outlook and low visibility on near- term consumption patterns.
  • Acciona slumped after newspaper Expansion said the Spanish government is analyzing 16 companies, including renewable unit Acciona Energia, to impose a new windfall profit levy announced earlier in the week.
  • Storebrand rises as much as 4% in Oslo trading after second-quarter pretax profit beat the average analyst estimate.
  • SBB posted a surprise pretax loss and the Swedish property company’s stock price tumbled as much as 17%.
  • SEB shares gain as much as 4.7% in early European trading after the lender posted 2Q earnings that showed higher deposit margins and decent loan growth, Handelsbanken writes in a note.
  • Hunting’s steep slide since its June 30 trading update offers a good entry point, Berenberg writes in note, upgrading the stock to buy from hold. Hunting shares up as much as 7.1%.

Asian stocks declined, as markets in Singapore and the Philippines fell after surprise monetary tightening by the two Southeast Asian nations, while Chinese bank shares weighed amid a property crisis.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.6%, with the financials gauge weighing the most on the measure. Ping An Insurance was the single biggest drag, leading a fall among Chinese lenders as home buyers in China refused to pay mortgages on delayed construction projects.    Shares in Singapore and Manila declined after local monetary authorities unexpectedly tightened policy rates to tackle inflation. Their declines helped put a key Southeast Asian equities gauge on track for a bear market. Taiwan’s benchmark rose for a second day after a government support pledge, while Chinese tech firms also climbed.  

The region’s mixed performance comes as investors continue to digest the prospect of a recession on hardened expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening after sizzling US inflation data. Traders in Asia also are waiting for Friday’s release of China’s second-quarter GDP growth figure.  “Even while central banks in most of the rest of the world are moving in one direction, here in Asia we’ve got a very, very large player doing something different,” said Alexander Treves, head of investment specialists for Asia Pacific equities at JPMorgan Asset Management, referring to China in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “The government has got quite ambitious growth targets for this year and it might be they don’t meet them but they are going to try very, very hard to stimulate in that direction.” The higher-than-expected consumer prices data from the US overnight was “lagged bad news,” according to David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.  “But we do expect lagged good news in the coming months, with energy prices diving lower, food prices cooling and consumer demand stepping back,” Kelly wrote in a note. “This should provide some inflation relief to the Fed and consumers, and hopefully lead sentiment to recover from its record-lows.”

Japanese equities erased earlier losses as the yen weakened after US inflation data hardened expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening.  The Topix index closed 0.2% higher at 1,893.13 in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.6% to 26,643.39. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 3.5%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,229 rose and 803 fell, while 138 were unchanged. “The weak yen and continuation of monetary easing in Japan, which is completely different from the situation in the US and Europe, will help to support stock prices,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management. 

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.4% to close at 6,650.60, climbing for a third session. Miners contributed the most to the benchmark’s gain. EML Payments was the top performer, bouncing back after three days of losses. Lake Resources was the biggest laggard after responding to a short-seller report. Investors also assessed jobs data. Australia’s hiring boom gathered pace in June, sending the unemployment rate to the lowest in almost 50 years and bolstering the case for a supersized interest rate hike next month.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.7% to 11,187.97

India’s benchmark equity index erased early gains to close at its lowest level in more than a week as shares of technology firms Infosys and TCS weighed.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.2% to 53,416.15 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by the same magnitude. Axis Bank was the worst performer on the Sensex, which saw 17 of its 30 member stocks trading lower. India’s biggest technology company TCS fell to the lowest level since March last year, setting the pace for a tech selloff.  India’s headline inflation rose 15.18% compared to last year, which was below estimates for the first time since June 2021.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by around 0.5% hitting an all time high, as the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers. AUD and DKK are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, JPY and CAD underperform. COP (+3%), RUB (+1.4%) lead gains in EMFX. The euro fluctuated, but held above parity. An early decline in the face of widespread dollar demand paused at buy orders from a reserve manager based in Asia seeking to diversify away from the greenback, according to Asia-based FX traders. One-week volatility in euro-dollar rallied as the tenor now captures the next ECB decision on July 21, the same day when a key Russian gas pipeline is scheduled to reopen. German and UK short-end bonds fell, led by the front-end, underperforming on their curves as money markets cranked up ECB and BOE rate-hike wagers for a second day. Investors were dumping Italian assets as political turmoil puts Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government at risk of collapse and complicates efforts by the European Central Bank to support the market. Swedish 2-year bonds slumped after inflation rose faster than forecast in June. The yen approached 140 per dollar as the currency is decoupling from its close relationship with US bonds amid a broad rally in the dollar.

In rates, the treasuries curve extends Wednesday’s flattening move with 2s10s spread reaching -27bp during European morning, as political turmoil in Italy has investors dumping its bonds. US yields cheaper by up to 5bp in front end and belly of the curve, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~2bp and ~5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 2.95%, cheaper by ~3bp vs Wednesday’s close; Italian bonds underperform by more 20bp in the sector. In front end, investors continue to anticipate front-loaded and aggressive Fed hikes to peak by year-end; swaps price 92bp of hikes into the July policy meeting and 213bp of additional hikes into the December FOMC, where policy rate is expected to peak.  Bund, and gilt curves bear-flatten; UST 2s10s yield-curve inversion deepens. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund adding 9.7bps to 209.2bps.

Bitcoin is bid but has reverted below the USD 20k mark once more, despite a brief foray to USD 20.4k initial highs.

In commodities, crude futures decline. WTI trades within Wednesday’s range, falling 2.3% to trade near $94.08. Brent falls 1.9% near $97.66. Most base metals trade in the red; LME nickel falls 5.1%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $19 to trade near $1,717/oz. Spot silver loses 1.4% near $19.

To the day ahead now, data releases include the US PPI reading for June and the weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Waller and the ECB’s Centeno. Earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. The European Commission will be publishing their latest economic forecasts, and UK Conservative MPs will hold another ballot on their next leader.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 3,768.75
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 154.55
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 510.23
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 26,643.39
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,893.13
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 20,751.21
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,281.74
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 53,290.44
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,650.62
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,322.32
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 409.97
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.24%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $1.0023
  • Gold spot down 1.0% to $1,717.77
  • US Dollar Index up 0.57% to 108.57

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The three-month euribor’s seven-year foray in to negative territory ended as money markets prepared for the ECB’s first rate hike in more than a decade
  • Italy’s Five Star Movement will refuse to back Mario Draghi’s government in a confidence vote on Thursday, raising the prospect that the prime minister offers to resign, potentially leading to an early election. A financial- market crisis focused on Italy might augur the worst turmoil in the history of the euro
  • Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly tightened monetary policy on Thursday, its second surprise move this year, as rising inflation fanned the risk of economic contraction
  • China will take further measures to stabilize employment as the country grapples with a flagging economy battered by the Covid-19 pandemic and a crumbling real-estate market
  • Chinese regulators have been asked to exercise greater caution when it comes to reviewing new overseas spending and investment plans amid concerns among senior leaders that higher US interest rates could spur capital outflows, according to people familiar with the matter
  • The euro area’s rebound from the pandemic will be weaker than anticipated while inflation will be faster because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to draft projections by the European Commission
  • Central banks across the globe are speeding up interest-rate hikes, seeking to crush an inflation surge partly of their own making. Wednesday saw Canada’s central bank hike a greater-than-expected full percentage point following two half-point moves, South Korea raise by a half point after several quarter-point moves, and New Zealand increase by a half point for a third straight meeting

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-pac stocks mostly traded with cautious gains after the recent hotter-than-expected US inflation data which printed at a fresh 40-year high and spurred hawkish market pricing with Fed Fund Rate futures leaning towards a 100bps Fed rate hike this month. ASX 200 was kept afloat amid strength in the commodity-related sectors although gains were capped as blockbuster jobs data raised the odds for the RBA to deliver a more aggressive 75bps hike at its next meeting. Nikkei 225 outperformed its major counterparts on the back of further currency depreciation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were initially pressured by weakness in the property sector although the downside in the broader market was cushioned and eventually reversed after recent policy support pledges in which the PBoC said it will step up support for the real economy and deepen interest rate reforms. STI and PSEi were the laggards and traded in the red after both the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Philippines Central Bank tightened their monetary policies in unscheduled announcements.

Top Asian News

  • Tokyo is expected to raise the COVID warning to its highest level, according to FNN.
  • Monetary Authority of Singapore announced to re-centre the mid-point of the SGD NEER policy band up to the prevailing level in an unscheduled meeting, while there was no change to the slope and width of the band. MAS said the move is to help slow the momentum of inflation and that inflation pressures are to remain elevated in months ahead, while it is appropriate to further tighten monetary policy further.
  • Philippines Central Bank raised its key rates by 75bps to 3.25% in an unscheduled policy decision. Philippines Central Bank Governor said they recognised that a significant further tightening of monetary policy was warranted by sustained broadening price pressures, while they are ready to take further action and said the economy can accommodate further tightening.
  • Chinese authorities reportedly met with banks regarding the mortgage payment boycott, according to Bloomberg sources

European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, but off worst levels while the FTSE MIB -1.9% languishes on domestic turmoil. Sectors are essentially all in the red with Tech giving up its initial TSMC-driven strength and succumbing to risk/yield moves. Stateside, futures are off lows but in-fitting European benchmarks awaiting guidance from the key banking names due to report imminently. TSMC (2330 TT) Q2 (TWD): Net Profit 237bln (exp. 219bln), Revenue 534bln (prev. 372bln YY), Operating Income 262bln (prev. 145bln YY); excess inventory in chip supply will take a few quarters to rebalance; expect capacity to remain tight this year; expects some capex this year to be pushed into next year due to tool supply issues. 2022 Capex closer to the lower end of prior guidance of USD 40-44bln. 2023 will see more of a typical downcycle in chip demand, unlike the large downcycle in 2008. Intel (INTC) has reportedly informed customers it will increase prices on a majority of its microprocessors and peripheral chip products later this year, citing rising costs, via Nikkei; Increases have not been finalized, likely to range from a minimal single-digit increase to over 10% or 20% in some cases, according to sources.

Top European News

  • The first round of the Conservative leadership ballot saw Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Tugendhat, Badenoch, and Braverman make it to the next round, while Hunt and Zahawi were eliminated.
  • Italy’s 5-Star leader Conte said the party will not participate in the confidence vote on Thursday, according to Reuters.
  • EU draft report cut 2022 EU GDP forecast to 2.6% from 2.8% and for 2023 to 1.4% from 2.3%.

FX

  • Yen yields to inevitable further widening in BoJ/Fed policy rates as markets place 2/3 probability on 100bp July FOMC hike; USD/JPY jumps through 139.00 towards October 1998 peak at 139.50, but pares back below 1.48bln option expiry interest at the round number.
  • DXY rebounds firmly after post-US CPI retreat to set new YTD peak before fading, index tops out at 108.650 vs 108.190 bottom and 107.470 midweek low.
  • Loonie loses all and more BoC boost as oil tanks, USD/CAD close to 1.3100 compared to Wednesday’s sub-1.2950 trough.
  • Euro is still defiant above parity vs the Buck but facing Italian political risk via a vote of no confidence.
  • Aussie underpinned by upbeat labour market report and more speculation that China may lift embargo on coal, UAD/USD holds around 0.6750.
  • Kiwi flanked by decent option expiry interest either side of 0.6100.
  • Yuan unable to avoid broad Dollar revival, as CNH slips under 200 WMA circa 6.7330.

Fixed Income

  • Debt under renewed pressure post-US CPI as 100bp hike odds continue to shorten and keep curves in bear-flattening mode
  • Bunds down to 151.21 from 153.01 at best, Gilts reverse from 116.05-115.14 and 10-year T-note retreats to 118-10+ from 118-30
  • Italian bonds underperform awaiting no-confidence vote in PM Draghi’s coalition Government

Commodities

  • The complex is broadly pressured amid the general risk tone and ongoing USD strength, crude benchmarks lower by over USD 2.00/bbl.
  • China is said to be mulling ending the Australian coal ban on Russian supply fears, according to Bloomberg.
  • White House Economic Adviser Rouse said President Biden is focused on getting more oil into the market and his Saudi visit will help get more oil into the market.
  • Spot gold is dented on the USD move which is far outweighing any possible haven allure thus far; base metals broadly lower.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: June PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 10.7%, prior 10.8%; MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
  • 08:30: June PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 8.2%, prior 8.3%; MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
  • 08:30: June PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, est. 6.6%, prior 6.8%; MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
  • 08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 235,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.38m, prior 1.38m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There are just 9 days to go until the happiest day of my life. It’ll be the most expensive too but I’m trying not to dwell on that. However, the final balances were all paid at the weekend, so I’ve figured that in purely accounting terms the wedding is now a sunk cost. For those who’ve been asking, preparation is going well. At long last we finally chose our first dance with less than a month to spare. But there’s still a few more things left on the agenda, including wearing in my new shoes. So if you saw a guy walking to the supermarket yesterday evening in casual summer clothes with oddly formal footwear, that might have been me.

For markets, the agenda yesterday was set by another stronger-than-expected US CPI print, which led to a sizeable reaction across asset classes as investors pondered whether it might lead the Fed to move even more aggressively than anticipated. In terms of the details, there wasn’t much good news at all for those hoping to see signs of weaker price pressures, with the headline CPI reading coming in at a monthly +1.3% in June (vs. +1.1% expected), which is the highest monthly reading since September 2005. There was little respite on core CPI either, which came in at its fastest in a year at +0.7% (vs. +0.5% expected). And on top of that, the Cleveland Fed’s Trimmed-Mean measure (which removes the biggest outliers in either direction) rose to +0.80% on the month, which is the fastest since that series began in 1983, and just shows how broad inflationary pressures have become.

Thanks to the strength of the monthly print, year-on-year CPI rose to its highest level since 1981, at +9.1% (vs. +8.8% expected). And in turn, that’s led to serious speculation among investors that the Fed could hike by 100bps at their next meeting, which would be even faster than the 75bps we saw in June that itself was the biggest hike since 1994. Fed funds futures for the July meeting are pricing in a growing chance of that, with the hike being priced for that meeting going up from +74.5bps on Tuesday to +90.7bps by the close yesterday, to +92.0bps this morning. So that’s noticeably closer to 100bps than 75bps now. We did hear from a few Fed speakers yesterday after the release, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said that “Everything is in play”, whilst Cleveland Fed President Mester referred to the report as “uniformly bad – there was no good news in that report at all”. All eyes will be on the remaining FOMC speakers over the next couple of days and what they have to say about a potential 100bps move. Remember this is also the last chance we’ll get to hear from them ahead of the decision, since the blackout period ahead of their next meeting begins on Saturday.

With investors pricing in an increasingly front-loaded hiking cycle by the Fed, that led to a further bout of yield curve steepening, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +10.6bps to 3.15%, whilst the 10yr yield came down -3.5bps to 2.93%. That left the 2s10s yield curve at an inverted -22.7bps, which is the most inverted that it’s been at any point in this cycle, and this morning it’s inverted even further to -24.9bps, which is the most inverted since 2000. The prospect that the Fed might make a larger than expected move was only bolstered by what then happened in Canada, where the central bank hiked by a surprise +100bps that marked their most rapid increase since 1998. In his statement, BoC Governor Macklem said that “By front-loading interest rate increases now, we are trying to avoid the need for ever higher interest rates down the road”.

After the CPI release came out, the prospect of more aggressive tightening from the Fed sent the Euro down to parity against the dollar for the first time since 2002, hitting an intraday low of $0.9998, although it’s since recovered and is trading this morning at $1.0033. To be fair, the CPI report was merely the catalyst for the final move lower, since the Euro’s decline had been building for some time, not least with the threat of a Russian gas cut-off looming. As our FX strategists have pointed out, parity in itself is more psychologically significant rather than economically significant, but the significant weakening over recent weeks will add to inflationary pressures, and an ECB spokesman said that although the ECB “does not target a particular exchange rate”, they mentioned how “we are always attentive to the impact of the exchange rate on inflation, in line with our mandate for price stability”.

In spite of the turbulence elsewhere, US equities managed to avoid a major slump yesterday, with the S&P 500 recovering from its initial losses of -1.56% to only close -0.45% lower. Meanwhile the NASDAQ (-0.15%) managed to modestly outperform, as did the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.12%). In Europe however, there was a much weaker performance and the STOXX 600 shed -1.01% along with other indices on the continent, including German’s DAX (-1.16%). Sovereign bond yields also moved higher across much of the Euro Area, with those on 10yr bunds (+1.1bps), OATs (+1.1bps) and BTPs (+2.4bps) all rising on the day.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets have fluctuating this morning with the major indices opening lower before recovering. As we go to press, the Nikkei (+0.70%), the Hang Seng (+0.17%), Shanghai Composite (+0.31%), CSI (+0.44%) and Kospi (+0.10%) are all in positive territory. Meanwhile in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.45%) has also gained following the release of strong employment data, with the unemployment rate down to a post-1974 low of 3.5% in June (vs. 3.8% expected). Looking forward however, US equity futures have posted modest losses in early trading with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.10%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.17%) slightly lower. Otherwise overnight, oil prices have rebounded somewhat, with Brent Crude moving just back above $100/bbl.

Here in the UK, we had the first ballot of MPs in the Conservative leadership contest yesterday, which will also decide the country’s next Prime Minister. Of the 8 candidates on the ballot, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak came out on top with 88 votes, followed by trade minister Penny Mordaunt on 67 votes, and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss on 50 votes. At the other end, both former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi were eliminated for not achieving the 30 votes required, so there are just 6 candidates left now. Today will see another ballot take place, and the candidate with the lowest votes will be eliminated.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, UK GDP grew by +0.5% in May (vs. +0.1% expected), and the decline in April was positively revised to show a -0.2% contraction (vs. -0.3% previously). Separately in the Euro Area, industrial production in May grew by +0.8% (vs. +0.3% expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading for June and the weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Waller and the ECB’s Centeno. Earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. The European Commission will be publishing their latest economic forecasts, and UK Conservative MPs will hold another ballot on their next leader.

WEDNESDAY /TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.85 PTS OR 0.08%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.74 OR 0.22%    /The Nikkei closed UP 164.62 OR % 0.62.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.60%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7553    /Oil DOWN TO 94.41 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 97.83 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7755 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7718: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER  

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

The housing sector in China is rapidly deteriorating as a hundred of debtors refused to pay mortgage payments on homes not yet built.  This will no doubt spread to other areas in the Chinese economy

(zerohedge)

China On Verge Of Violent Debt Jubilee As “Disgruntled” Homebuyers Refuse To Pay Their Mortgage

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 10:06 AM

While US snowflakes are all too happy to talk the talk (which remains free, even despite Biden’s hyperinflation), Chinese residents are increasingly walking the walk. First, it was the violent outcry against mandatory covid vaccines that put an end to Beijing’s desire to forcibly innoculate all Beijing residents in just 48 hours – a feat not all of America’s armed militias have been able to achieve, and now it’s a grassroots push for what appears to be a debt jubillee as millions of homeowners suddenly stop paying their mortgages, a shocking move that has sent shockwaves across China’s capital markets and has sparked panic within China’s political leadership circles.

As Bloomberg reports overnighta rapidly increasing number of “disgruntled Chinese homebuyers” are refusing to pay mortgages for unfinished construction projects, exacerbating the country’s real estate woes and stoking fears that the crisis will spread to the wider financial system as countless mortgages default.

According to researcher China Real Estate Information, homebuyers have stopped mortgage payments on at least 100 projects in more than 50 cities as of Wednesday, up from 58 projects on Tuesday and only 28 on Monday, according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analysts including Shujin Chen.

“The names on the list doubled every day in the past three days,” Chen wrote in a note published Thursday. “The incident would dampen buyer sentiment, especially for presold products offered by private developers given the higher risk on delivery, and weigh on the gradual sales recovery.”

What’s behind this grassroot movement to halt mortgage payments altogether? Negative equity:

Analysts believe that a drop in home values may be another driver for the refusal to meet mortgage payments. “Investors are concerned about the spread of mortgage payment snubs to buyers, simply due to lower property prices, and the impact on property sales,” Chen wrote.

According to Citi analysts, average selling prices of properties in nearby projects in 2022 were on average 15% lower than purchase costs in the past three years. Meanwhile, it’s only getting worse as China’s home prices fell for a ninth month in May, with June figures set for release Friday.   

The crisis engulfing Chinese developers is reaching a new phase, with a debt selloff expanding to firms once deemed safe from the cash crunch, including investment-grade names such as Country Garden Holdings, the largest builder by sales.

The payment refusals, which come at a time when China’s economy is set to post what may be a negative GDP print due to the latest economic shutdown over Xi’s catastrophic zero covid policies, underscore how the storm engulfing China’s property sector is now affecting hundreds of thousands of average citizens, posing a threat to social stability ahead of a Communist Party Congress later this year. Chinese banks already grappling with challenges from liquidity stress among developers now also have to brace for homebuyer defaults.

As a result of the unprecedented push for a debt jubilee, shares of China’s banks extended their recent decline Thursday, with the CSI 300 Banks Index falling as much as 3.3% before closing down 2.2%. A Bloomberg Intelligence index of Chinese developer stocks slid as much as 2.7%, even though Chinese lenders were quick to try and dispel fears that the movement could crash the economy: according to Bank of Communications, its outstanding balance of overdue mortgage loans linked to housing projects with risks of delayed delivery is 99.8 million yuan, accounting for 0.0067% of its domestic housing mortgage balance. The bank added that its housing mortgage loan quality is stable and risks are controllable, the Shanghai-based lender says in an exchange filing. At the same time, Postal Savings Bank of China says its overdue mortgage loans linked to halted housing projects is 127m yuan, and risks are controllable. Of course, it’s not like Chinese banks would ever lie, now is it?

Which is why others remained skeptical: Nomura analysts said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified, according to the Japanese bank. Even before the crisis, developers only delivered around 60% of homes they presold between 2013 and 2020, while outstanding mortgage loans rose by 26.3 trillion yuan, Nomura analysts including Ting Lu wrote in a note Wednesday.

“Presales carry mounting risks for developers, homebuyers, the financial system and the macro economy,” Ting wrote. Failure to build homes on time reduces households’ willingness to buy new properties, and rising raw material prices may mean funds from presales are insufficient to construct them.

We are especially concerned about the financial impact of the homebuyers’ ‘stopping mortgage repayments’ movement,” Ting wrote. “China’s property downturn may finally adversely affect onshore financial institutions after hitting the offshore high-yield dollar bond market.”

* * *

While rising non-performing loans for Chinese banks are “manageable” for now, “more risk events are likely to come, at the backdrop of China’s growth slowdown, residents’ expectation of worse future income, and shrinking property sales,” affecting China’s social stability, Jefferies’s Chen said.

At that point Beijing will be faced with a stark choice: inject a massive amount of liquidity into the market, or brace for the biggest fear for every Chinese politician: a middle-class insurrection. We doubt they will pick the latter.

And while the odds are low that this latest example of testicular fortitude demonstrated by millions of increasingly desperate Chinese citizens will be imitated in the US, the last thing the flailing US economy can afford is a similar self-imposed debt jubilee, one which will see the Fed injection trillions into the economy in no time.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

Italy

The problem with Italy is now coming to the forefront as it looks like the Italian government may  fail.  Italian bond yields skyrocket and thus European defragmentation risks re emerge.

(zerohedge)

European ‘Defragmentation’ Risks Re-Emerge As Italian Political Crisis Looms

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 09:07 AM

Italian stocks and bonds are reeling (yes, again) as political risk soars back to top of mind after the Five Star Movement set to boycott a key aid package vote, putting the survival of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government at risk.

Giuseppe Conte, the Five Star party leader and the second-biggest group in Draghi’s coalition, said he could no longer back Draghi’s cross-party government, which he accused of not doing enough to help families battered by spiralling food and energy costs.

“I have a strong fear that September will be a time when families will face the choice of paying their electricity bill or buying food,” he said after a day of frenetic political consultations.

Crucially, as The FT reports, the implosion of the national unity government, which could trigger earlier elections that were set for spring next year, would come at a sensitive time for Italy, which is expected to be the largest single recipient of the EU’s €750bn Covid recovery fund.

Draghi, who has been leading Italy’s technocratic government since early 2021, is expected to meet President Sergio Mattarella on Thursday afternoon, and could offer his resignation.

Other parties have indicated that they could call for an early election and that it was untenable for Draghi to remain in power if Five Star pulled out. In an interview with Italian paper Corriere Della Sera on 15 June Matteo Salvini, head of the rightwing League, argued that the government’s balance has moved “too much to the left” on many dossiers, such as taxes, pensions, immigration and justice.

“If a coalition party doesn’t back a government decree, enough is enough, it seems clear that we should go to elections,” said Salvini.

European Union Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, a former premier of Italy, said the EU is concerned by the Italian situation.

As Rabobank’s Michael Every notes, polls suggest that the far-right Brothers of Italy would come out on top if elections would be held right now. The worsening financial position of households only has strengthened their chances of winning such elections, since they are basically the only big opposition party.

Italy’s FTSEMIB is Europe’s worst-performing equity index this morning (led by its banking sector’s weakness), breaking back below last week’s lows back to its lowest level since Nov 2020 (notably over 19% below pre-COVID highs)…

The Euro is weakening further also (against the USDollar)

Additionally, and more problematically for The ECB, Italian bond yields (and spreads) are exploding higher…

…placing ‘defragmentation’ risks squarely back on the table.

Time for Christine to bail the Italians out again?

end

Holland

Climate mandates imposed on Dutch farmers will ruin their livelihoods in exactly the same fashion as in Sri Lanka

(EpochTimes)

Climate Mandates Imposed On Dutch Farmers Will Ruin Their Livelihoods: War Correspondent

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Ella Kietlinska and Joshua Phillipp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The livelihoods of Dutch farmers are under attack due to the Dutch government’s proposed nitrogen policy, which could necessitate the mass slaughter of livestock and potentially shut down almost a third of the country’s farms.

If this policy is implemented, it will have “major security consequences, not just for the Netherlands, but for all of Europe and the world,” said Michael Yon, a war correspondent who has recently arrived in the Netherlands to report on the ground from the Dutch farmers’ protests.

The Netherlands is a small country in Europe with a population of 17 million people, but it is the second-largest food exporter in the world, Yon said in a recent interview for EpochTV’s “Crossroads” program. “They have the most efficient farmers in the world.”

In 2021, the Netherlands’s coalition government proposed slashing livestock numbers in the country by 30 percent to meet nitrogen greenhouse gas emission targets.

The country has already implemented stringent restrictions on new construction, intending to curb nitrogen emissions.

Dutch bank Rabobank has argued that those new hurdles have slowed home building in the Netherlands, intensifying a housing shortage in the densely populated coastal nation.

On June 10, Christianne van der Wal, the Dutch Minister for Nitrogen and Nature Policy, unveiled a plan to reduce nitrogen emissions in the Netherlands, according to a statement by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The Dutch Provinces are responsible for developing corresponding measures to reach the nitrogen emission reductions between 12 and 70 percent, depending on the area,” the statement said.

“Farmers in some provinces will be particularly hard hit … and the Dutch government acknowledged ‘there is not a future for all {Dutch} farmers within [this] approach.’”

The Netherlands Chamber of Commerce says that nitrogen environmental pollution comes from burning fossil fuels but also from manure produced by livestock and fertilizers used in farming. It is estimated that to implement the proposed plan, farmers would need to reduce their cattle herds by 30 percent, according to Barron’s.

But Yon said Dutch farmers are not polluting the environment and that they’ve been farming the land for thousands of years.

Nitrogen is being labeled as a pollutant and used as a decoy by the World Economic Forum (WEF) to put the farmers out of business and control the food supply, Yon said.

Dutch Farmers Protest Against Climate Policy

The proposed measures sparked protests among Dutch farmers in June, with a large protest joined by truckers which started on July 4.

Dutch farmers, truckers, and others have used social media in a decentralized way to organize blockades of food distribution hubs across the northwest European country, which resulted in empty shelves in supermarkets.

The protesters also planned to demonstrate at many of the nation’s airports, specifically mentioning Schiphol Airport and Eindhoven Airport.

Dutch farmers and truckers realize that their government is following the recommendations of the WEF, which has been trying to take their land and control their food supply, Yon said.

“If you control the food supply, you control that population completely,” he said.

Dutch farmers are very educated, and they are both businesspeople and farmers, Yon said. They know that if they lose, they will lose their livelihood, and the consequences of their loss will be felt for many generations, he said.

“The farmers are rising up. They know they’re going to be put out of business … which would put all of Europe on its knees, foodwise,” Yon said.

Similar policies are being introduced in Germany and some other countries, Yon said. Some German farmers who want to show their solidarity are also involved in the Dutch protest, he added.

Read more here..

END

GERMANY/RUSSIA

Germany will stop importing Russian coal from August 1 and crude oil from December 31 in another suicide move

(OilPrice.com)

Germany To Halt Russian Coal Imports Next Month

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 03:30 AM

By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com

Germany will stop importing Russian coal from August 1 and crude oil from December 31, the country’s deputy finance minister, Joerg Kukies said today, as quoted by Reuters.

“We will be off Russian coal in a few weeks,” Kukies said at the Sydney Energy Forum, which is taking place this week.

“Anyone who knows the history of the Druzhba pipeline, which was already a tool of the Soviet empire over eastern Europe, ridding yourself of that dependence is not a trivial matter, but it is one that we will achieve in a few months,” he added.

Kukies admitted, however, that replacing Russian hydrocarbons, not only in Germany, will be no easy task, citing the fact that together, the United States and Qatar could only supply some 30 billion cu m of natural gas equivalent to Europe, which imports more than 150 billion cu m of Russian gas annually.

Despite the challenge, Germany is in a rush to build LNG import terminals so it can replace at least part of Russian gas imports with liquefied gas from abroad. The problem here is, however, tightening supplies, with Freeport LNG in the U.S. offline until at least September, and Shell’s Prelude in Australia shut down amid industrial action.

Demand for gas in Germany and Europe as a whole remains strong as governments seek to fill up their gas storage caverns ahead of the next heating season. Germany, specifically, is also on edge after Gazprom stopped the flow of gas via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline this week for regularly scheduled maintenance. Fears are that it will not turn the taps back on once the maintenance is done.

The suspension of coal and oil purchases from Russia is a result of sanctions the EU placed on Moscow earlier this year, providing buyers of the commodities with a temporal cushion of six months for each, so they could stock up on coal and oil before the respective embargos kicked in.

EURO VS DOLLAR:

Lunacy on display

Inbox

Robert Hryniak6:33 PM (0 minutes ago)
to

The combo in power in Washington actually “supports” the unification of Britain, Poland, Ukraine and The Three Baltic Midgets as a separate alliance from NATO/EU – aiming at “strengthening the defense potential.” That’s the official position of US Ambassador to NATO Julian Smith. Is this the next crowd to meet the Russian meat grinder of artillery? What’s in it for the Poles? They are finally expressing disgust at the Bandera worshipers loose in the Ukraine. It there is traction to this capital exodus will be very real!
How dumb is this? Why would Britain want to shoulder the burden of the Baltic Midgets who suck at any tit availed? None have been able to build their own economies and suffer an exodus of any youth at all capable. To say they are part of anything that they can contribute to, is a bad joke. At best they are flyover countries, unless you are tourist. 
Has the political class in Britain fallen so low as allow itself to used as pawn, a pawn that is as expendable as the rest or as the Ukraine is being hallowed out to last Ukrainian? If and when a wider conflict occurs will Brits be so willing a sacrificial lamb to slaughter? If so, for whose and what gain of their citizens? 
If this is reality, it is no wonder the so called Global South is running away for the Collective West who seems to be imploding upon itself. Truly tragic for citizens of the West who are zombies as their world is being turned upside down and will in the future be less abundant than in the past. Even in places like Germany, 1st generation Turks are leaving headed for South America in search of a more prosperous existence than is seen in Europe. When counties like Argentina ( has its’ own issues) is seen as a better bet than Germany, you know Germany is in trouble.end

Crazy business

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:42 PM (1 hour ago)
to

Why anyone wants a slice of this is beyond me? 

One only hopes reason finds other parties. 

7/13/22 
By WarNews 24/7 
Translated from Greek

The Beginning of the End for Ukraine in Donetsk: Russian Army Enters Soledar and Seversk After Prolonged Battle – Tons of Ammunition Dumped (videos) 
Fierce fighting north of Slavyansk

The Russian Army, after last night’s pounding of Ukrainian positions, as a result of the attack it received with MLRS HIMARS, managed to enter Seversk and Soledar a while ago.

The first light of day showed the extent of the total destruction of Ukrainian armed formations. The Russians, after the surprise blow they received, “emptied” tons of ammunition towards Bakhmut-Soledar-Seversk as WarNews247 reported this morning.

Sweeping Russian bombings across the front: Harpoon destroyed – Terrible losses for the Ukrainian Army – They reach 1,000 dead!

The main line of Ukrainian defense is now a thing of the past as Russian forces have captured one of the main hubs of the Ukrainian Seversk – Soledar – Bakhmut (Artemovsk) formation.

Earlier, in the direction of Artemovsk and Soledar, several Ukrainian Armed formations had retreated after the defeat in the Lisichansk-Severodonetsk axis.

The Russian Army entered Soledar! 
According to military sources, there has been a significant advance of Russian troops in several directions at the same time.

According to reports, Russian troops managed to advance towards Soledar, destroying well-fortified positions of Ukrainian troops in the east of the city.

Eventually the Russians reached the outskirts of the city in the area of ​​Novaya Kamenka and Yakovlevka settlements.

Russian advance on Slavyansk & Bakhmut: Captured Trypillya, Vladimirovka and Bogorodichne – Ashes of weapons depots with 1,000 M-777 missiles

Not long ago, Russian army units and Republican People’s Militia forces captured the outskirts of Soledar along with a large NATO ammunition depot.

At the same time, Russian troops, together with Donetsk and Lugansk units, are advancing along the road connecting Bakhmut (Artemovsk) with Seversk.

The Russians are about to complete a successful offensive along the Seversk-Soledar front, which will make it possible to control hundreds more square kilometers of Donetsk territory in the coming hours.

It is the beginning of the end for Ukraine in Donetsk.

The Ukrainians left Novaya Kamenka 
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have already abandoned Novaya Kamenka seeing their defenses collapsed.

Russian and allied forces are advancing mainly from the Trypillya region which is located on the border of Lugansk and Donetsk regions.

It is possible that after clearing Novaya Kamenka, Russian and allied forces will try to capture the village of Stryapovka and then move towards the Bakhmutskoye – Yakovlevka highway

The Russian Army also entered Seversk 
Russian forces with the call sign “O” opened the way to Seversk after a fierce battle with the Ukrainian Army.

The decisive battle was fought in a fortress on the western outskirts of Verkhnekamenskoye. After their victory, the Russians entered the city limits of the city of Seversk. According to military sources, the city is expected to come under the full control of the Russian Army in the next 48 hours.

Now, Russian forces have captured one of the main hubs of the Ukrainian Seversk – Soledar – Bakhmut (Artemovsk) defense arrangement.

After this defeat, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be fortified in the last line of defense as WarNews247 has already said for days.

This is the axis Slavyansk – Kramatorsk – Druzhkovka – Konstantinovka – Avdeevka.

There are reports that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is now withdrawing units from Seversk, leaving the defense battalions to defend the city, supported by nationalist Battalions.

The battle is now lost for Ukraine in the wider region. Russian forces are advancing from several sides simultaneously, both towards the Seversk and Soledar region, and from the Ugledar region.

Fierce fighting north of Slavyansk 
Russian war correspondents speak of heavy fighting north of Slavyansk which does not stop for a minute.

“At the moment there is an implacable standoff, in which Russian and our allied Armed Forces are advancing slowly but steadily from Izyum towards Slavyansk.

From the east and south we are constantly liberating settlements. But in the north things are different. Our forces are literally fighting for every few meters.

In the forests on the front from Izyum, the fighting does not stop. Artillery drops several dozen tons of ammunition during the day. The enemy suffers colossal losses, but immediately replenishes its rather “fragile” units with new forces.

At the same time, Ukrainian paramilitary formations have a tangible numerical superiority in this area. In addition, the forests that our army must enter are littered with mines.

Under these conditions, the Russian allied forces must literally “gnaw” through the enemy’s defenses, recapturing every forest zone and clearing.

However, the attack of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Donetsk-Lugansk in this region does not stop for a minute.

Numerous videos, charts, maps and photos a source: 
https://warnews247.gr/ektakto-i-archi-tou-telous-gia-tin-oukrania-sto-ntonetsk-o-rosikos-stratos-bike-soledar-kai-seversk-meta-apo-sfyrokopima-diarkeias-adeiasan-tonous-p

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/GRAIN

Finally Russia and Ukraine reach a breakthrough deal over blocked grain exports

(zerohedge)

Russia, Ukraine Reach Breakthrough Over Blocked Grain Exports: UN Chief

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Is this the beginning of a solution to the Ukraine grain export impasse which has been threatening to put large swathes of dependent populations across the Middle East and Africa on the brink of famine? 

On Wednesday UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced that warring powers are on the cusp of a deal to free up Black Sea exports after multiple intense rounds of talks in Istanbul, saying an “important and substantive step” was made towards reaching a comprehensive agreement.

Next week, hopefully, we’ll be able to have a final agreement. But, as I said, we still need a lot of goodwill and commitments by all parties,” Guterres said from UN headquarters in New York. He qualified that despite this rare instance of Ukraine and Russia engaging the other in negotiations, it remains that “for peace we still have a long way to go.”

Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar also confirmed that a deal is close, saying it would be signed next week, when both sides are expected to meet again. Moscow and Kiev have reportedly agreed to “joint controls for checking grains at harbors” – though details of the draft deal haven’t been fully revealed.

The BBC additionally reported that talks are appearing to focus on neutral external parties – such as Turkey for example – safeguarding international vessels through the Black Sea:

Talks on opening up a “green corridor” through the Black Sea took place in Turkey on Wednesday. But any agreement will require support from President Vladimir Putin, who meets Turkey’s president in Iran on 19 July.

And Bloomberg sources revealed the following:

Talks were held in Istanbul with representatives from Ukraine, Russia and Turkey, plus the United Nations. The sides agreed on the “main technical principles,” Turkey’s defense minister said in a statement.

Ukrainian and Russian delegations will meet again in Turkey next week to further discuss details, Turkey said. There has been no statement issued yet from Kyiv or Moscow. The parties agreed to form a coordination center, among other discussion points, Turkey said.

Further, according to Al Jazeera citing two sources privy to the Istanbul talks, the parties “are close to a deal or perhaps they even have a deal.”

In a Spring forecast by the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization, it was estimated that the globe will see a 20% decline in global wheat production this year due to the ongoing situation in Ukraine, where the country’s Ministry of Agriculture recently warned a third of the country’s farmland is occupied or unsafe.

The issue of a theoretical deal being reached vs. the reality of actually executing it remains an entirely different question, given the presence of thousands of mines around many of Ukraine’s key ports. Russia has put the issue in central focus as it has sought to combat accusations from the West that it alone is to blame for the blockade of crucial wheat supplies from the country. The Kremlin has laid fundamental blame for the crisis on Ukraine’s military mining its own ports.

END

RUSSIA/LITHUANIA

Lithuania will now allow rail transit of Russian goods after the EU reaches a compromise deal on Kaliningrad

(zerohedge)

Lithuania To Allow Rail Transit Of Russian Goods After EU Reaches Compromise On Kaliningrad

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 05:45 AM

It seems that saner minds are prevailing after ratcheting rhetoric coming from Moscow threateningly elevated Lithuania’s effective blockade of all overland trade and goods to an ‘act of war’ by the West… as the European Union is now refusing to back the full extent of Lithuania’s sanctions enforcement measures.

The European Commission issued its legal guidance on the standoff Wednesday, which had over the past month resulted in some one million Russian citizens in the exclave remaining cut off from products brought by rail and road. “The transit of sanctioned goods by road with Russian operators is not allowed under the EU measures. No such similar prohibition exists for rail transport,” the European Union executive said, specifying that Russian goods should continue to be allowed by train.

“The Commission underlines the importance of monitoring the two-way trade flows between Russia and Kaliningrad … to ensure that sanctioned goods cannot enter the EU customs territory,” it added, emphasizing further that the rail exception doesn’t apply to weapons or munitions. The ban on transit still exits for freight brought by road, however. The EU said further this should be done through “targeted, proportionate and effective controls and other appropriate measures.”

There was the additional caveat to the ruling that EU trade sanctions would not apply as long as Russia’s transport volumes do not exceed averages of the last three years, according to the “the real demand for essential goods at the destination.” It remains that food and humanitarian goods were reportedly never subject to the sanctions, nor was travel of citizens back-and-forth.

Lithuania’s government soon after the EU legal advice was issued said that it would adhere to it, albeit perhaps grudgingly:

Lithuanian Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday the previous trade rules, which blocked many sanctioned cargos from transport between mainland Russia and Kaliningrad, were “more acceptable”.

“Kaliningrad transit rules may create an unjustified impression that the transatlantic community is softening its position and sanctions policy towards Russia“, the statement said.

On Monday Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko during a phone call agreed to a “possible joint response” to the blockade of transit to Kaliningrad by Lithuania.

Without elaborating on details, but sounding ominous given threat of near future action, a Kremlin statement said of the call, “Emphasis was placed on the situation relating to the illegal restrictions imposed by Lithuania on the transit of goods to the Kaliningrad Region. In this context, some possible joint steps were discussed.”

Moscow’s position has vehemently remained that Lithuania’s actions amounted to an “illegal blockade”. The hardline, unflinching position of Lithuania without doubt created a major unwanted headache for EU leadership.

After Brussels’ guidance was released, EU spokesman Eric Mamer stressed, “We did not negotiate anything with Russia.” The Kremlin did, however, previously submit its grievances to European authorities, demanding that they act to overturn Lithuania’s policy.

END

ISRAEL/USA

Biden is willing to kill the Iran deal to keep the IRGC on their terror list as well signing pledge to support Israel and never allow Iran to get nuclear weapons. 

(zerohedge)

Biden Willing To Kill Iran Deal To Keep IRGC On Terror List, Signs Pledge With Israeli PM

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 08:25 AM

“The connection between the Israeli people and the American people is bone deep. It’s bone-deep,” President Joe Biden declared upon arriving at the Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, Israel, kicking off his brief, albeit what’s sure to be controversial, Middle East tour that will include Saudi Arabia on Friday (“bone-deep” as an expression might be a tad ironic going into the crown prince MbS meeting).

The president underscored his belief that the US relationship with Israel “is deeper and stronger, in my view, than it’s ever been.” On Thursday he and Israeli (caretaker) Prime Minister Yair Lapid signed a join pledge committing to ensuring Iran will never get nuclear weapons. Biden later in a joint presser declared the US would remain the “Last country in the world to ever walk away” from defending Israel.

One administration official was cited in regional media as saying this means the US is “prepared to use all elements of our national power to ensure” that Iran is denied nuclear weapons. Biden while responding to a journalist’s question cast stalled negotiations toward restoring the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal as crucial to preventing Tehran obtaining nukes.

While it remains that US allies Israel and Saudi Arabia generally oppose a new or restored deal, Biden said: “The only thing worse than the Iran that exists now is an Iran with nuclear weapons.” Blaming his predecessor Donald Trump, Biden followed with, “They are closer to a nuclear weapon now than they were before.”

But perhaps the most eyebrow raising comments from the president came in a sit-down televised interview with Israel’s Channel 12, wherein he said he intends to keep Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on the foreign terror list even if that means the nuclear deal with Tehran will die.

Biden was questioned over whether he is “committed to keep the IRGC on the foreign terrorist organization list, even if that means that it kills the deal“. Without hesitation, Biden responded: “Yes.”

The president was also asked about his administration’s willingness to employ military force if it looked like Tehran was on the cusp of obtaining a nuclear weapon. Biden affirmed this is a possibility, “if it’s a last resort”

The IRGC issue has threatened to torpedo the Vienna negotiations altogether, with Iran long having been insistent of its removal from the US terror list. However, lately Tehran has shown it’s willing to reach compromise even on this, yet movement toward a final deal has still been stalled, which Iranian officials blame on Washington seeking to sabotage a finalized agreement.

Below are further highlights from the channel 12 interview…

Biden has said that he’s “optimistic” that Israel and Saudi Arabia are moving towards normalization, based on the Abraham Accords.

In the interview, he stressed that this “will take time”. 

Later, in the joint press conference with Prime Minister Lapid, Biden said his Saudi trip on Friday is focused on promoting US interests – including security and stability – so that neither China nor Russia “fill the vacuum” in a scenario of lack of US leadership and presence. Biden also again stressed that Iran will “never be allowed to build a nuclear weapon.”

end

GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Macron’s Minority Government Defeated on Vaccine Passports

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 11:05 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

French President Emmanuel Macron suffered a humiliating setback in parliament after his vaccine passport scheme was defeated.

Macron’s minority government wanted to extend the policy whereby anyone entering France has to show proof of vaccination or a negative Covid test.

However, the right-wing populist National Rally (RN), the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) and the right-wing Republicains (LR) all united to vote against the policy.

Macron’s government lost the vote by a margin of 219 votes to 195.

“The bill’s defeat was met with wild cheering and a standing ovation from opposition lawmakers, in footage that was widely circulated on social media,” reports the Telegraph.

The bill was one of the first put to parliament by the new minority government, highlighting how Macron will find it incredibly difficult to get new laws passed in the country.

Elisabeth Borne, the French Prime Minister, condemned the vote.

“The situation is serious. By joining together to vote against the measures to protect the French against Covid, LFI, LR and RN prevent any border control against the virus. After the disbelief on this vote, I will fight so that the spirit of responsibility wins in the Senate,” she tweeted.

As we previously highlightedthe French Minister of Health admitted that vaccine passports are a “disguised” form of mandatory vaccines, despite President Macron claiming vaccine mandates “will not be compulsory.”

On the first day the new program was in place, police in Paris were visibly patrolling bars and cafes demanding customers show proof they’ve had the jab.

It later emerged that many businesses were refusing to enforce the scheme.

*  *  *

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end


GLOBAL INFLATION/SUPPLY ISSUES//GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS

The following is a very important read.

(Larry McDonald/Bear Trap Report)

“Take The Tragedy In Sri Lanka And Multiply By Ten”: The Fed Just Lobbed A Financial Nuke That Will Obliterate The Global Economy

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 10:40 PM

By Larry McDonald, author of the Bear Traps Report

We are living in a period of mass “Jonestown” economic delusion. Just twenty months ago – central bankers were offering to buy nearly every junk bond known to mankind, dramatically distorting the “true cost of capital.” All the way from crypto to emerging markets – it was a moral hazard overdose. Everyone on earth was borrowing money at fantasy-land bond yields.

Nowthe Fed is promising endless rate hikes and $1T of balance sheet reduction onto a planet with emerging market and Euro-zone credit markets in flames.

Listen, all I have is an economics degree from the University of Massachusetts, but after having spent the last 20 years trading bonds professionally and embarking on a 20k feet deep autopsy on the largest bank failure of all time – from my seat the current Fed agenda is sheer madness and will be outed very soon.

The true cost of capital was distorted for so long, we now have hundreds of academics– clueless to the underlying serpent inside global markets. When the 6 foot seven, Paul Volcker walked the halls of the Marriner S. Eccles Building of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, our planet embraced about $200T LESS debt than we are staring down the barrel at today. Please call out the risk management imbeciles that make any reference of “Powell to Volcker.”

In 2021, global debt reached a record $303T, according to the Institute of International Finance, a global financial industry association. This is a FURTHER jump from record global debt in 2019 of $226T, as reported by the IMF in its Global Debt Database. Volcker was jacking rates into a planet with about $200T LESS debt. Please call out the risk management imbeciles that make any reference of Powell to Volcker.

Many economists in 2022 are highly delusional – a very dangerous group indeed. When you hike rates aggressively with a strong dollar you multiply interest rate risk, which was already off the charts coming from such a low 2020 base in terms of yield – it’s a convexity nightmare. Interest rate hikes today – hand in hand with a strong U.S. Dollar – carry 100x the destructive power than the Carter – Reagan era.

At the same time, you add lighter fluid on to the credit risk fire in emerging markets with a raging greenback. Global banks have to mark to market most of these assets. If global rates reset higher and stay at elevated levels, the sovereign debt pile is in gave danger. The response to Lehman and Covid crisis squared (see above) has left a mathematically unsustainable bill for follow on generations. The Fed CANNOT hike rates aggressively into this mess without blowing up the global economy. We are talking about mass – Jonestown delusion on roids.

Then Covid-19 placed a colossal leverage cocktail on top. Emerging and frontier market countries currently owe the IMF over $100B. U.S. central banking policy + a  strong USD is vaporizing this capital as we speak.

A dollar screaming higher with agricultural commodities – priced globally in dollars – is a colossal tax on emerging market countries – clueless academics at the Fed are exporting inflation into countries that can least afford it. Emerging – and
frontier market countries owe the IMF over $100B – U.S. central banking policy – strong USD, is vaporizing this capital.

A quarter-trillion dollars of distressed debt is threatening to drag the developing world into a historic cascade of defaults. The number of developing nations trading distressed has doubled, with El Salvador, Ghana, Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan appearing particularly vulnerable. With the low-income countries, debt risks and debt crises are not hypothetical – try buying oil in USD in an EM currency. A fifth — or about 17% — of the $1.4 trillion emerging-market sovereigns have outstanding in external debt denominated in dollars, euros or yen, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Academics at the Fed are exporting inflation into countries that can least afford it – decimating communities all over the planet. The tragedies are piling up. While given cover from their well-placed collection of pawns, tough guy Powell is playing his Volcker act – right out of a scene in a poor man’s poker game. In terms of who ́s actually running the show – emerging market bonds are plunging 10 points a week and Powell wants you to think he’s got pocket Kings.

Truth is, the global credit risk dynamic has the Aces, and the Fed is looking down at pocket 2s, if that. The IMF has total lending capacity near $1T, Powell is currently wiping out 10% of that. Ultimately, this lost tribe will be coming back, “hat in hand” – yet again to the U.S. taxpayer.

So now we have global bank balance sheets, stressed by $20T to $30T in mark to market losses from Equities, Treasuries, European government bonds, Crypto, Private equity and Venture capital – in the middle of the worst emerging market credit crisis in decades. All after just 150bps of rate hikes from the Fed? Hello?? Anyone home? There are A LOT of bonds that look like this! Oh – by the way – Egypt owes the IMF $13B, the Fed just lit these liabilities on fire.

If the Fed keeps its policy path promises, take the tragedy in Sri Lanka and multiply it by ten across the globe over the next six months. Check-mate FOMC.

end

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA//CANADA

VACCINE INJURY/

Education is critical to the future of ay nation

Inbox

Robert HryniakAttachments9:19 AM (28 minutes ago)
to

If you read this you will realize that lockdowns have decimated education of young child’s who spent the best part of a year or more without schooling.
And biggest impact is obviously in the poorest nations, especially those with cheap affordable internet. So at a time when the world needs educated youth in a ever more complex world the result is opposite.
Education and development of children from promise to educated character is a foundation builder of tomorrow. Because without this the future is shackled by a lack of people capable to lift a nation’s potential.
We would do well understand this and develop youth as opposed to letting the likes of Gates who would render youth uneducated for dominance. Even in business the strength of a business’s ability to compete is characterized by it’s least educated and able staff. And while education is not the sole answer, common sense is partially achieved by literacy.

Vaccine Impact


WHO Recommends Masks Again, Preps World for Another Global Lockdown in Fall
July 13, 2022 6:09 pm


The WHO is preparing the world for the next season of lockdowns, refusing to admit the emergency is over and recommending governments reimplement mask mandates. “I’m concerned that cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, putting further pressure on [sic] health systems and health workers. I’m also concerned about the increasing trend of deaths. The emergency committee on COVID-19 met on Friday last week and concluded the virus remains a public health emergency of international concern,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom. Adhanom continued, saying the Committee is concerned about subvariants of Omicron that most people have never even heard of because they’ve tuned out COVID news since the end of the lockdowns. He added that there’d been a rise in cases while simultaneously claiming there’s not enough testing or surveillance to determine the severity of COVID. Astounding. He then bemoaned the drop in vaccine uptake, saying not nearly enough people are lining up to get their second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth… booster shots.
Read More…

Data Show 441 Children Without Parents Crossing the Border to the U.S. Every Day as U.S. is Top Destination for Child Sex Trafficking

July 13, 2022 7:49 pm

An average of 441 children will cross the U.S.-Mexico border alone every day this year, surpassing last year’s record, data from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) show. “DHS projections call for approximately 148,000 and 161,000 [unaccompanied children] referrals to [Health and Human Services Office of Refugee Resettlement] this year. With monthly projections exceeding those seen in FY 2021,” says a document obtained by the Washington Examiner. It reportedly detailed the response plan to the influx from the Department of Health and Human Services as of January 2022. Border Patrol prioritizes the transfer of those under the age of 18 who cross the border illegally without a parent or guardian. Another forecast outpaces data from a year earlier, as Customs and Border Protection recorded 147,975 total encounters of single minors in the fiscal year 2021, meaning 405 children per day on average from October 2020 to September 2021. Data show more than 101,000 unaccompanied minors have been seized nationwide till May in the current financial year.Read More…

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every  on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…(DE GROOT)

Here Comes The Violent Summer Of Soaring Dollar Discontent

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 09:18 AM

By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank

In this climate of rising inflation, particularly of energy and food, and global central banks in tightening mode, a (political) crisis never is very far away. Sri Lanka has been one of the most prominent examples with its recent default on foreign debt and its President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fleeing the country yesterday has been one of the most prominent examples. Bad economic policy, the Covid-19 shock and, ultimately the global food and energy crisis resulting in serious shortages, tipped the country over the edge. Protests also broke out in Libya earlier this month, where rising ‘cost of living’ problems were cited as one reason. According to FAO statistics, a staggering 29.4% of the world’s population was facing moderate or severe food insecurity in 2020 (up from 25% in 2015) a figure which probably did not improve in recent years.

But the crisis in Sri Lanka also points to broader risks stemming from currency volatilityFor one, the strong dollar has its mirror image in a sharp depreciation of many currencies around the world. There is hardly any developing/emerging market currency that has escaped the stronger dollar. Bear in mind also that dollar-claims (loans and debt securities) on the non-financial sector in emerging markets and developing countries reached a record of nearly USD 4 trillion last year, after more than a decade of easy monetary policy. As such currency volatility in developing markets is something is unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future.

Of course the biggest eye-catcher in recent days has been the euro, which yesterday, truly, dipped below the magical parity level. It’s hard to forgive investors that bearish sentiment – with the market now basically split 50/50 on whether the Fed’s next step will be a 75bp or 100bp hike after its last 75bp and the ECB not even having started hiking yet.

The Bank of Canada, clearly, did not hesitate, surprising the market by raising rates 100bp to 2.50% yesterday, where both analysts and traders had mainly expected a 75bp hike. As our own Christian Lawrence notes in his post-meeting comment, the Bank of Canada continues to be one of the most aggressive developed world central banks, having raised rates before the Fed, hiked 50bp before the Fed, and started QT before the Fed. The Bank is still confident it can engineer a soft landing, and a front-loaded hiking cycle is the best way to achieve that. But, the path to a soft landing has narrowed and the reduction in the growth outlook does imply some pain. We maintain our call for a 4% terminal rate at the December meeting, although the BoC did suggest that the peak would be slightly above neutral which it sees as between 2-3%.

Against that backdrop, yesterday’s US CPI report hammered home the message that the Fed may need to do more (even though we know that monetary policy works with a considerable lag). Headline inflation pushed to 9.1% in June, more than the consensus (8.8%) had been forecasting. Although President’s Biden’s reaction was that that number, whilst being “unacceptably high” was “also out of date” [given the sharp fall in commodity prices since mid-June], we do note that these surprises has been one of the most consistent patterns this year. In fact, the 0.3%-points surprise (compared to the Bloomberg median) was at the high-end of that range and matched the surprise for May. Energy and food were both significant contributors as were – again – (new and used) vehicle prices. Although core inflation edged down in y/y terms (from 6% to 5.9%) that number -too- came in above expectations.

Returning to the weakness of the euro, the political situation in Italy is not providing any support for the single currency. Indeed, it cannot be excluded that the government of PM “whatever it takes” Draghi falls today in a confidence vote. The key reason is tensions within Draghi’s own coalition which basically floats on the left-wing Five Star Movement M5S, led by Giuseppe Conte, the right-wing Lega, led by Matteo Salvini and the centre-left PD. Salvini already raised the pressure earlier this year. In an interview with Italian paper Corriere Della Sera on 15 June he argued that the government’s balance has moved “too much to the left” on many dossiers, such as taxes, pensions, immigration and justice, warning that he would make up its mind on whether to leave the coalition on September 18, which is when the Lega holds its annual rally.

But this time around it is Conte’s M5S that is trying to saw the legs from under Draghi’s chair. Conte told lawmakers yesterday that his party would boycott a confidence vote on an economic aid package today. In response, Draghi has thrown in his full weight, warning that he would resign if Conte walks out of the vote. The aid package intends to provide further support to businesses and households hit by high energy prices. Conte has compared it to “writing a blank check”; it is our understanding that his grievances are not so much over the support itself, but rather the limited influence his lawmakers have had in the deliberations over the aid packages. The need to differentiate the M5S from the rest of the coalition evidently owes to the poor performance in the polls.

Although this nuances things, tensions have unexpectedly quickly turned into a high-stake game that may soon see the announcement of snap elections, unless Conte backs down or President Mattarella steps in to broker a repair of the coalition through talks. This may well be the preferred route for everyone. For, whilst Conte may be playing hardball, it remains to be seen whether coalition parties are ready for such early elections. Polls suggest that the far-right Brothers of Italy would come out on top if elections would be held right now. The worsening financial position of households only has strengthened their chances of winning such elections, since they are basically the only big opposition party.

That said, the political tensions in Italy suggest that the ECB’s Anti-Fragmentation Tool (or Transmission Protection Mechanism) could not have come any sooner, as the heated-up political debate is likely to weigh on sentiment vis-à-vis Italian bonds. Equally, though, one could argue that a political crisis only makes the ECB’s balancing act more complicated, as we would not be surprised if the hawks take this as evidence that any such tool is fraught with risks, such as the ECB falling hostage to politics.

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Oil Plunges To Post-Putin Lows, Breaks Key Technical Support

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 09:53 AM

As Fed-induced recessionary fears soar, so oil prices are reversing their recent gains fast.

“The price action in crude oil continues to be dictated by the battle between traders looking for an economic slowdown and the physical market which continues to signal tightness. Demand, however, has started to show signs of weakness with the EIA reporting a counter-seasonal drop in US gasoline consumption to the lowest on a seasonal basis since 2000,” Saxo Bank said in a note.

WTI is trading back to its lowest since April…

And has broken below the key 200-day moving-average…

But Brent crude is trading back to Feb levels – erasing all of the post-invasion premium in the international oil benchmark…

However, as Bloomberg reports, OPEC producers will need to pump crude at the fastest pace in five years in 2023 if they are to balance oil supply and demand. Capacity constraints suggest they may struggle.

The latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries all show global oil demand rising strongly again in 2023, despite growing fears over mounting inflation and weakening economic growth. A lack of investment in new crude production capacity means that the OPEC group of producers will need to pump more to meet that demand.

All three forecasters see global oil demand increasing by at least 2 million barrels a day next year, taking it back above the 2019 level for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic struck in early 2020.

So it may not be over yet.

India rejects USA EU calls to boycott Russian oil

(zerohedge)

India Rejects US, EU Calls To Boycott Russian Oil

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 07:20 PM

Days ago Reuters reported that Indian imports of Russian oil surged in June, reaching 950,000 barrels of cheap Russian oil per day. From May (where India imported 819,000 bpd) this marked a 15.5% rise, while simultaneously imports from its number one and (now) number three suppliers – Iraq and Saudi Arabia – dropped 10.5% and 13.5%, respectively. And this is a massive leap up from from the 277,000 bpd imported in April.

The Reuters report further underscored that as the West moves to ban and sanction Russian oil altogether, it’s China and India that now account for 50% of Russian seaborne exports, lured by hugely discounted prices compared to the Brent international benchmark.

As we’ve been detailing, Russia’s energy earnings are already back to pre-war levels after five months of round after round of US and EU sanctions intended to “punish” Moscow and President Vladimir Putin, with analysts widely estimating Russia’s energy sales are now on track to reach $285 billion this year. 

And the idea in Washington and Brussels all along was that efforts to block or impose a (currently still under discussion) price cap on Russian oil would somehow hinder the ongoing Russian assault on Ukraine. Instead, there appears the opposite effect emerging with blowback on US and EU populations amid higher prices at the pump.

Yet still, Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo recently acknowledged the lure of cheap oil could be used to get wayward countries like India or China on board, saying in statements to The Associated Press, “We think that ultimately countries around the world that are currently purchasing Russian oil will be very interested in paying as little as possible for that Russian oil.”

But so far they remain the chief, powerful hurdles to the possibility of any effectiveness to any proposed EU price cap plan

James Hamilton, an economist at the University of California, San Diego, said garnering the participation of China and India will be important to enforcing any price cap plan.

“It’s an international diplomatic challenge on how you get people to agree. It’s one thing if you get the U.S. to stop buying oil, but if India and China continue to buy” at elevated prices, “there’s no impact on Russian revenues,” Hamilton told the AP.

“The less revenue Russia gets from selling oil, the less money they have to send these bombs on Ukraine,” he said.

Currently, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm is in Sydney for energy talks, where high on the agenda is to get the Quad nations – especially India and Japan – on board with a Russian oil price cap policy. 

As earlier previewed in Bloomberg:

Granholm is scheduled to meet with counterparts from the Quad group of nations — Australia, India, Japan and the US — during a visit to Sydney that’ll also touch on cooperation on supply of critical minerals needed for clean energy technologies.

“We want to put on the table the option of joining a buyers’ group that will have greater market power to be able to lower the price, and therefore lower the price of Russian oil and lower the profits to Putin,” Granholm said Monday in an interview in Sydney.

But as emphasized in fresh analysis in Foreign Policy on Wednesday, all indicators are that New Delhi will continue rejecting these pleas “to act” out of the Biden administration. Like with last month’s G7 summit, India’s silence and apparent cold shoulder to the Biden administration’s urgings is speaking louder than words during Quad meetings in Sydney too.

“Leaders of 12 democracies huddled in an Alpine resort in Bavaria last month,” FP recounted. “They included presidents and prime ministers of the G07 group of industrialized nations as well as their counterparts from India, South Africa, Indonesia, Argentina, and Senegal,” the report continues.

“But the handshakes, embraces, and jokes couldn’t mask the deep divide among them: While the G07 leaders’ closing communique focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine and efforts to cut the Kremlin’s earnings from energy exports, the 12-nation statement didn’t mention Ukraine, the war, or even oil once.”

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan President Lands In Singapore On Saudi Flight As ‘Pariah’ Status Grows

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 09:35 AM

Apparently even close regional allies like the Maldives see embattled Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa as too much of a liability to have around for more than a day or two.

While he had initially fled his country on a military aircraft Wednesday just as protesters overran his presidential residence in Colombo and were even enjoying his swimming pool, and with his motorcade later being briefly spotted speeding through the streets of Maldive capital of Malé, he’s now reported to have arrived in nearby Singapore on Thursday. But it seems protests are following him wherever he goes.

CNN reports that Rajapaksa “has fled Maldives on board a flight for Singapore, a high-ranking security source in Colombo told CNN, as anger grows in his home country over his refusal to formally resign.”

Family members were also being ferried out of the capital as it descended into chaos. To leave the Maldives, he may have had some help from the Saudis, the report continues:

Rajapaksa left the capital of the Maldives, Malé, on board a “Saudi flight,” the source said. Rajapaksa had been waiting to secure a “private jet” from a close family member in Colombo, but that had “not materialized,” the source added.

CNN believes the source was referring to Saudia flight 788, which left Malé at 11:30 a.m. according to the source. The flight landed in Singapore at 7:17 p.m. local time Thursday, according to the Changi Airport website. Saudia is the flag carrier of Saudi Arabia.

Former prime minister and Acting President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s office was also stormed just as Gotabaya was safely in the Maldives. 

Wickremesinghe has authorized the army to “exercise force” if need be as government buildings continue to come under threat after a state of national emergency has been declared.

“In view of the escalation of violent acts, protesters intent on harming the armed forces or public property are earnestly urged to desist from all forms of violence immediately or be prepared to face consequences as members of the armed forces are legitimately empowered to exercise force,” Premaratne announced. However, this is likely to only further enrage demonstrators in the streets.

President Rajapaksa had reportedly been staying at the Waldorf Astoria when he was briefly in the Maldives. But his presence had immediately sparked protests on the islands.

CNN describes:

The protests took place across the nation’s islands—including in front of the Maldivian president’s house—and reportedly grew violent as local police attempted to disperse the crowds, which included demonstrators who carried banners that read, “Dear Maldivian friends, please urge your government not to safeguard criminals.”

Even some Maldivian lawmakers had choice words about the decision to give the ex-president refuge, with a member of the Progressive Party of Maldives calling it a “betrayal” to their closely allied country, according to The Deccan Herald.

Bloomberg has meanwhile noted in an update that the embattled Sri Lankan president’s precise whereabouts in Singapore are as yet unknown. Likely he’ll attempt to keep an extremely low profile for fear of protests breaking out there, which would pressure and encourage authorities to continue sending him on to another country.

As his status as a ‘pariah’ grows, fueled by the anti-government and anti-corruption protests at home and abroad, it becomes less likely that sympathetic allies will host him in their countries.

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.00056 DOWN  0.0028 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED 

USA/ YEN 138.89   UP 1.268 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1819 UP   0.0045

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 2.85 POINTS UP  0.08%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 46.74 PTS OR 0.22% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.60%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL  RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 46.74 PTS OR  0.22% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.85 PTS DOWN 0.08% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.60% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 164.62 OR 0.62%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1713.60

silver:$18.69

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 108.50  UP 0.81  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.33%  UP 9  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.235% up 1     AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.33%// UP 8   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.39  UP 16   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.175%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0008 DOWN  0.0025    or 25 basis points

USA/Japan: 139.08 UP 1.446  OR YEN DOWN  145  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.18000  DOWN  0.0064 OR 64  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0136 OR 136 BASIS pts  to 1.2962

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.71560  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.7614

TURKISH LIRA:  17.48  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.235

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  2.973% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.113 UP 5 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 108.56 UP 81   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 102.47 PTS OR  1.43%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 230.21  POINTS OR 1.81%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 82.47 PTS OR 1.39% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 146.00 OR 1.84%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 698.41PTS OR  3.28%

WTI Oil price 93.76   12: EST

Brent Oil:  96.74  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  58.33  DOWN 0.03        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.175

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0023 UP .0010     OR  10 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1819 DOWN .0044  or  44 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 138.87  UP 1.237//YEN DOWN 124 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3105 UP 0.01064 (CDN dollar DOWN 106  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 96.44

Brent OIL:  99.68

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.96 UP 2 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.081  UP4  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.47

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  58.30   DOWN 3/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 142.28 PTS OR 0.46 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 39.87 PTS OR 0.34%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 26.57 down 0.25 PTS (0.93)%

GLD: 159.29 DOWN 2.31 PTS OR 1.43%

SLV/ 17.00 DOWN .67 CENTS OR 3.90%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Banks Dump, Bitcoin Pumps, Bullion Slumps As Inflation-Recession Battle Builds

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 04:01 PM

PPI followed CPI’s lead and smashed expectations to the upside – panic!! Stocks tanked, long-end bond yields tumbled, rate-hike odds jumped higher – basically all the worst parts of the bible…

So, The Fed ‘released the Waller’ to save the world.

Did Waller just hint at where the “Fed Put” is?

Waller started off sounding hawkish – signaling base case 75bps and could be more…

While the June consumer price index report released Wednesday was a “major league disappointment,” Waller stressed that his vote is contingent on additional data due before the July 26-27 Fed policy meeting, citing retail sales and housing.

“With the CPI data in hand, I support another 75 basis-point increase,” Waller said Thursday in remarks to a Global Interdependence Center event in Victor, Idaho.

If that data come in materially stronger than expected it would make me lean towards a larger hike at the July meeting to the extent it shows demand is not slowing down fast enough to get inflation down,” said Waller.

BUT… within an hour, during the Q&A of his address, Waller walked the stock market back from the edge by taking a 100bps hike off the table.

Waller said a 75 basis-point hike is “huge” and that if the Fed opts for such a move, it wouldn’t mean officials are failing to confront price pressures.

“Don’t say because you are not doing a 100 you are not doing your job,” he said, adding “you don’t want to really overdo the rate hikes.”

Did Bullard just signal The Fed’s pivot?

Bullard suddenly suggests ‘neutral’ rate is at 2.25% (basically done after a July 75bps hike).

“So far, we’ve framed this mostly as 50 versus 75 at this meeting. I think 75 has a lot of virtue to it” because it brings the benchmark rate to roughly the neutral level as seen by policy makers, Bullard was quoted as saying in a Nikkei interview on Wednesday that was published Thursday. “As of today, I would advocate 75 basis points again at the next meeting.”

“If we made this move at this meeting, that would get us all the way till the long run neutral value. And obviously we’ve got more steps to take in meetings ahead, but we can assess as we go through the rest of this year,” he said in an interview with Nikkei.

“I’ve said it would be a good idea to get to 3.5% this year, and that would put downward pressure on inflation. A lot of that’s already been priced into the markets, so we’ve already got the market pricing we need,” Bullard said.

All in all, The FedSpeak managed to talk down the odds of a 100bps hike in July from 75% to around 30% (and we suspect if tomorrow’s retail sales print disappoints, the odds will drop to 0%)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, what many desks were chatting about as the driver of today’s mass psychology reversal in stocks was comments by BofA’s top Rates strategist, and former NY Fed analyst, Marc Cabana who warned that The Fed will be forced to end GT much sooner than expected.

And that sent stocks soaring off their lows with Nasdaq managing to get back into the green.

Energy and Financials were the ugliest horse in the glue factory today with Tech outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

The weakness in Financials was led by JPMorgan after ugly earnings. Notably Morgan Stanley managed to scramble back to unchanged after a relatively ugly earnings print also…

Source: Bloomberg

Lots of chaos in Europe today thanks to Italian politics as EURUSD oscillated around parity (rallying after the president rejected Draghi’s resignation)…

Source: Bloomberg

And FTSEMIB futures rebounded after Draghi was not allowed to quit…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed today with the belly underperforming and the wings actually rallying (2y and 30Y -2bps), but late in the day, as stocks extended gains, bonds also rallied and yields fell across the curve. NOTE bonds were bid after JPM’s results and then yields spiked on the PPI print, before sinking back…

Source: Bloomberg

The Bloomberg Dollar Index (broader weighting than DXY) broke above its COVID highs

Source: Bloomberg

The DXY Dollar Index surged to its highest since June 2002…

Source: Bloomberg

The Thai Baht was trampled to its lowest since 2006

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos rallied on the apparent Fed Pivot with Bitcoin back above $20,500…

Source: Bloomberg

…and Ethereum surged back above $1200…

Source: Bloomberg

One thing we noted over the last 24-36 hours is the decoupling of crypto and Nasdaq (though the rip higher today was very synchronous)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil crashed back down below its 200DMA and Brent to levels below those when Putin invaded Ukraine…

Source: Bloomberg

….then ripped higher as stocks surged on hints at a Fed pause and closed higher on the day (which they will only do if the f**king economy is in a nasty recession)…

Notably, the physical market continues to signal tightness compared to futures…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold plunged back below $1700 after the PPI print but bounced back above (still ending down 1.5% on the day)…

Finally, with regard to Waller’s jawboning of the market getting ahead of The Fed’s hawkishness in July, we are reminded of when Fed’s Bostic hinted at a ‘September pause’, sending rate-hike odds notably lower… briefly….

Source: Bloomberg

Only for all of that to be unwound and dramatically more (as Bostic walked back his own comments and committed to full hawk-tard once again).

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

end

ii) USA DATA//

Initial jobless claims soar!

(zerohedge)

Initial Jobless Claims Soars To Highest Since Nov 2021

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 08:46 AM

Following the very mixed message from last Friday’s jobs data, this morning’s initial claims data was definitelky worse – with 244k Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. That is the highest since November 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

There was a big jump in unadjusted continuing claims across all programs…

The unexpectedly large rise in claims was driven a surge in New York (vaccine mandate related?)

This ongoing surge in jobless claims fits much more with the narrative being told by ISM Manufacturing and Services surveys…

Still think the economy is strong enough to withstand a 100bps hike next week?

end

This is simply awful;  PPI unexpectedly surges to record highs in June

This is a forerunner of future CPI rises

(zerohedge)

Producer Price Inflation Unexpectedly Surges Back Near Record Highs In June

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 08:37 AM

Following yesterday’s CPI scare, analysts were hoping that Producer Prices will decelerate modestly. They were wrong, very wrong. PPI printed 11.3% YoY in June (nback up near record highs and well above the +10.8% expected)

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 27th straight month of MoM increases in producer prices.

Final demand goods:

The index for final demand goods moved up 2.4 percent in June, the sixth consecutive rise. Nearly 90 percent of the June increase can be traced to a 10.0-percent jump in prices for final demand energy. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods advanced 0.5 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively

Over half of the June increase in the index for final demand goods is attributable to gasoline prices, which jumped 18.5 percent. The indexes for diesel fuel, electric power, residential natural gas, motor vehicles and equipment, and processed young chickens also moved higher. In contrast, prices for chicken eggs dropped 30.2 percent. The indexes for iron and steel scrap and for jet fuel also decreased.

Final demand services:

The index for final demand services rose 0.4 percent in June after climbing 0.6 percent in May. Two-thirds of the broad-based advance in June can be traced to a 0.8-percent increase in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services also moved higher, 0.1 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively.

Over 30 percent of the June advance in the index for final demand services can be traced to margins for food and alcohol retailing, which rose 3.8 percent. The indexes for machinery and equipment wholesaling, outpatient care (partial), transportation of passengers (partial), guestroom rental, and hospital inpatient care also increased. Conversely, prices for portfolio management declined 2.7 percent. The indexes for automobile retailing (partial) and for long-distance motor carrying also moved lower

The pipeline of price increases remains horrible for The Fed with intermediate demand goods inflation re-accelerating in June…

Finally, margin pressure continues to weigh on American corporates with PPI dominating CPI for the 18th straight month…

…get back to work Mr.Powell

.

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

JPMorgan tumbles after revenue miss.  They stop buybacks and according to Jamie Dimon, the outlooks looks dire

(zerohedge)

JPMorgan Tumbles After Revenue Miss, Buyback Suspension, Dire Outlook From Jamie Dimon

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 07:38 AM

What was already an ugly morning for global markets, turned even uglier when moments ago JPMorgan officially launched Q2 earnings season with results that were not only disappointing from top to bottom, missing on both revenue and earnings, but a dire outlook from CEO Jamie Dimon about “never-before-seen” quantitative tightening and its effects on global liquidity, “combined with the war in Ukraine and its harmful effect on global energy and food prices are very likely to have negative consequences on the global economy sometime down the road” further spooked traders, while JPM’s announcement that it was temporarily suspending its share buybacks was the straw that broke the camel’s back, sending JPM stock plunging more than 5% in premarket trading.

Starting at the top, JPM reported revenue of $31.63BN, which came in below expectations of $31.97BN, resulting in a 28% drop in profit and EPS of $2.76 which also missed consensus estimate of $2.88.

And while we will go down the company’s financials, here was the big shocker: the company’s announcement that it was temporarily suspending buybacks:

“As a result of the recent stress tests and the already scheduled G-SIB increase, we will build capital and continue to effectively and actively manage our RWA. In order to quickly meet the higher requirements, we have temporarily suspended share buybacks which will allow us maximum flexibility to best serve our customers, clients and community through a broad range of economic environments.”

Unlike previous quarters, this time the fire and brimstone from Dimon was relentless, with the veteran CEO warning of an never-before-seen environment:

In our global economy, we are dealing with two conflicting factors, operating on different timetables. The U.S. economy continues to grow and both the job market and consumer spending, and their ability to spend, remain healthy. But geopolitical tension, high inflation, waning consumer confidence, the uncertainty about how high rates have to go and the never-before-seen quantitative tightening and their effects on global liquidity, combined with the war in Ukraine and its harmful effect on global energy and food prices are very likely to have negative consequences on the global economy sometime down the road. We are prepared for whatever happens and will continue to serve clients even in the toughest of times.”

It wasn’t all dire, and Dimon said that the bank “performed well,” with “growth across the lines of business” and of course, has a “fortress balance sheet.”

And then this from Dimon: In the first half of 2022, we extended credit and raised $1.4 trillion in capital for large and small businesses, governments and U.S. consumers.”

Some other highlights from the balance sheet:

  • Loans $1.10 trillion, +6.1% y/y, estimate $1.08 trillion
  • Total deposits $2.47 trillion, estimate $2.56 trillion
  • Net yield on interest-earning assets 1.8% vs. 1.62% y/y, estimate 1.75%
  • Standardized CET1 ratio 12.2%, estimate 12%
  • Managed overhead ratio 59%, estimate 59.9%
  • Return on equity 13% vs. 18% y/y, estimate 13.5%
  • Return on tangible common equity 17%, estimate 16.7%
  • Assets under management $2.74 trillion, estimate $2.82 trillion
  • Tangible book value per share $69.53

Of note, debit and credit card spending was “up 15% with travel and dining spend remaining robust,” card loans were “up 16% with continued strong new account originations.” On the other end, home lending revenue fell 26%, which reflects the weakness in mortgage origination we’ve seen lead to job cuts across the industry.

And sticking with the consumer bank, JPM set aside $761 million for loans that go bad, but the reserve build – money set aside – was $150 billion. This time last year, they released almost $2 billion in credit reserves as banks touted the strength and the health of the consumer. This move reflects the more pessimistic tone we’re hearing on the US economy this quarter.

Overall the results were good. The bad news is that clearly Dimon sees the good times ending, and after unexpectedly building reserves by a shocking $806MM last quarter, in Q2 the bank added another $428 million in reserves due to “a modest deterioration in the economic outlook”, as well as taking $657 billion in charge offs (less than the 835 million expected), adding up to $1.1 billion in credit costs, slightly more than the $1.07 billion expected:

Going back to the income statement, the bank’s trading results in Q2 were a mess, with just equities and trading beating expectations, while FICC and investment banking both missing badly, to wit:

  • Q2 CIB Markets total net revenue $7.79 billion, +15% y/y, missing estimate $7.93 billion
  • Q2 FICC Sales & Trading Rev $4.71B, missing Est. $5.11B
  • Q2 Equities Sales & Trading Rev $3.08B, beating Est. $2.82B
  • Q2 Corporate & Investment Bank IB Fees $1.65B, missing Est. $1.9B
  • Q2 Investment Banking Rev. $1.35B, -61% Y/Ymissing Est. $1.92B
    • Q2 Advisory revenue $664 million, missing estimate $720.7 million
    • Q2 Equity underwriting rev. $245 million, in line with estimate $244 million
    • Q2 Debt underwriting rev. $741 million, missing estimate $934.9 million

The bad news wasn’t just the 54% drop in investment banking fees but also a $257 million writedown in its bridge book, which “consists of certain held-for-sale positions, including unfunded commitments.” This probably is not all leveraged loans, but that’s the market that has been really hammered in recent months.

Summarized:

Commenting on the results, Dimon said that in the Corporate & Investment Bank, “we generated strong Markets revenue, up 15% as we helped clients navigate volatile market conditions.” But “Global IB fees were down 54% compared to a record last year, in a challenging macro environment. Commercial Banking loans were up 7% on strong new loan originations and higher revolver utilization.” Dimon also said that “wealth management’s results were “strong” thanks to “the impact of higher rates and loan and deposit balances.”

Looking ahead, the bank sees the following relatively rosy picture:

  • JPMorgan Sees FY NII Ex-CIB Markets Above $58B, Saw Above $56B
  • Sees 2022 Net Interest Income Excl Markets to Be $58B+
  • Sees 2022 Card NCO Rate of <2%
  • Sees FY NII Ex-CIB Markets Above $58B, Saw Above $56B
  • Sees FY Adj. Expense of About $77B, Market Dependent
  • JPMorgan: $257M of Markdowns on Hfs Positions in Bridge Book

It’s curious how JPM sees an increase in NIM in a time when all curves are inverted but we are confident someone will ask that on the call.

In kneejerk response to the soft earnings, the first reaction coming in now from Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli who writes that “the actual Q2 numbers themselves are decent – the EPS “miss” was driven largely by some one-time items within the investment bank (bridge loan commitments, Russia-related items, etc.) while expenses and NII/NIM were bright spots.” As for the buyback suspension: “The big negative is the buyback suspension – mgmt. says this will only be temporary (and capital ratios improved vs. Q1), but investors will be disappointed nonetheless.”

Meanwhile, as Octavio Marenzi of Opimas writes, results were “a mixed bag, but ultimately slightly disappointing” and “there was no clear direction for the bank as a whole, and this will be same story in the next quarter or two.”

Investor agree, and judging by the slump in JPM stock price premarket, they don’t like what they are seeing, sending the stock as much as 5% lower:

And while we pointed out the “temporary” end of the buyback it’s also worth noting that when looking into last month’s stress test results, JPMorgan announced that the Fed would begin requiring its CET1 capital ratio to be 12% starting in October, up from the current requirement of 11.2%. And then on top of that, JPMorgan is going to have a surcharge of 50 basis points starting next year just because it’s one of the “global systemically important banks.” That’s the G-SIB increase Dimon was referencing in his quote. So by next year, they’ll have to notch a CET1 ratio of 12.5% — and they clocked in at an estimated 12.2% this quarter.

The full invest presentation is below (pdf link):

END

Morgan Stanley slides after stating a “challenging” quarter after they reported a top and bottom line miss

(zerohedge)

Morgan Stanley Shares Slide After “Challenging” Quarter Sparked Top- & Bottom-Line Miss

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 08:03 AM

Hot on the heels of JPMorgan’s disappointing results, Morgan Stanley shares are slumping after the bank reported worse-than-expected Q2 results missing top and bottom-lines and taking a large regulatory charge.

Q2 EPS disappointed (printing $1.44 vs $1.56 expected) but the big headline maker was that revenue of $13.1 billion fell short of expectations of $13.3 billion (with wealth-management revenue of $5.74 billion missed the average estimate of $5.81 billion).

While the bank missed on the top-line, it did manage to deliver better-than-expected results for both its equities and FICC sales and trading businesses. But on the debt capital markets side, revenue disappointed (coming in at $326 million, below the $374 million that analysts expected).

“Overall the Firm delivered a solid quarter in what was a more volatile market environment than we have seen for some time,” CEO James Gorman said in a statement.

“We finished the quarter in a strong capital position to ensure we move forward with confidence,” he added.

Worse still investment banking revenues were down 55% YoY (dramatically missing analysts estimates)

“Advisory revenues decreased from a year ago driven by lower levels of completed M&A transactions. Equity underwriting revenues significantly decreased from a year ago on lower issuances given uncertainty in the markets. Fixed income underwriting revenues decreased from a year ago as macroeconomic conditions contributed to lower issuances.”

Additionally, MS set aside $200 million to cover the SEC probe into bankers and traders’ use of apps like WhatsApp:

“The Firm’s expense efficiency ratio was 74%, impacted by $200 million related to a specific regulatory matter concerning the use of unapproved personal devices and the Firm’s record-keeping requirements.”

The end result, MS shares are down but recovering from their worst levels…

Finally, looking ahead, Morgan Stanley took a $101 million provision for credit losses, up from $73 million a year ago, suggesting the economy may not be as rosy as so many talking heads continue to proclaim.

END

This is big!!

(zerohedge)

Judge Orders Discovery To Proceed In Social Media Collusion Lawsuit Against Biden Administration

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 02:05 PM

A federal judge has ordered several social media companies to turn over documents and answer questions within the next 30 days as part of the discovery phase in a lawsuit brought by the states of Missouri and Louisiana, which allege that the Biden administration colluded with tech giants to censor conservatives.

“A federal court granted our request for discovery & documents from top ranking Biden officials & social media companies to get to the bottom of their collusion to suppress & censor free speech,” tweeted Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt on Tuesday, adding “No one has had the chance to look under the hood before – now we do.

“In May, Missouri and Louisiana filed a landmark lawsuit against top-ranking Biden Administration officials for allegedly colluding with social media giants to suppress freedom of speech on a number of topics including the origins of COVID-19, the efficacy of masks, and election integrity,” Schmitt said in a Tuesday statement. “Today, the Court granted our motion for discovery, paving the way for my Office to gather important documents to get to the bottom of that alleged collusion – this is a huge development.”

ZeroHedge will be very interested to see if there are any further communications between the government and Twitter regarding our February 2020 ban for suggesting that Covid-19 may have emerged from a Wuhan lab, which notably made its way into a FOIA release of Dr. Anthony Fauci’s emails.

As The Center Square‘s Joe Mueller writes of the Missouri case:

The four-count lawsuit alleges the social media companies labeled content “disinformation” and “misinformation.” The suit contends the suppression constitutes government action and violates freedom of speech protected by the First Amendment.

The lawsuit also alleges the federal government’s actions exceeded statutory authority and the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) violated the Administrative Procedure Act.

The AGs also allege a “Disinformation Governance Board” within DHS pressured social media companies to suppress free speech on:

  • The Hunter Biden laptop story prior to the 2020 Presidential election;
  • Speech about the lab-leak theory of COVID-19’s origin;
  • Speech about the efficiency of masks and COVID-19 lockdowns; and
  • Speech about election integrity and the security of voting by mail.

After the AGs filed a motion for expedited preliminary injunction-related discovery, the Biden administration filed an opposition. The Biden administration argued Louisiana and Missouri don’t have the authority to bring a parens patria suit – an action to protect citizens unable to protect themselves – against the federal government.

“Great news in the Missouri/Louisiana case vs. the Biden administration’s manipulation of social media to censor scientific speech!” tweeted Stanford professor Jay Bhattacharya, an advocate for scientific transparency whose writing have appeared in the WSJ, and has joined the plaintiff’s side in the suit.

The Biden administration failed to convince the judge that states can’t meet an “injury in fact” standard, defined as “it suffered ‘an invasion of a legally protected interest’ that is ‘concrete,’ ‘particularized,’ and ‘actual or imminent, not conjectural or hypothetical,” according to Center Square. The DOJ argued that there was no link between alleged injuries to the states and the government’s alleged actions.

More from Schmitt…

The lawsuit, which was filed on May 5, 2022, alleges that the Biden Administration – more specifically President Biden, Press Secretary Jen Psaki, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the now-defunct Department of Homeland Security’s “Disinformation Governance Board” Nina Jankowicz, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and others – both pressured and colluded with social media giants Meta, Twitter, and Youtube to censor free speech in the name of combating so-called “disinformation” and “misinformation,” which led to the suppression and censorship of truthful information on several topics, including COVID-19.

The lawsuit names President Biden, former Press Secretary Jen Psaki, Health and Human Services Director Xavier Becerra, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and others.

The lawsuit incorporates four counts: (1) Violation of the First Amendment, (2) Action in Excess of Statutory Authority, and (3) Administrative Procedure Act Violations by HHS officials, and (4) Administrative Procedure Act violations by DHS officials.

3b/INFLATION COMMENTARIES/LOG JAMS ETC

June Shipments Decline: Latest Cass Data Shows Volumes Weaken, Costs Hit New High

THURSDAY, JUL 14, 2022 – 12:25 PM

By Todd Maiden of FreightWaves

Freight shipments fell 4.1% sequentially in June, reversing all of May’s gain, according to data provided by Cass Information Systems on Wednesday. On a year-over-year comparison, the monthly volumes data set was down for the fourth time in the first half of 2022.

The Cass Freight Index continued to moderate during June alongside macroeconomic data points. With a cooling in consumer spending and new highs in inflation (9.1% annualized, according to June data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday), the freight industry appears to be on the downside of the freight cycle as the back half of 2022 begins.

Many retailers were chasing inventory throughout the pandemic, often pulling forward merchandise spend well ahead of normal buying patterns to avoid supply chain bottlenecks and ultimately stockouts. However, the trend has reversed course recently with a couple of retail heavyweights signaling margin pressure as they are now carrying too much stock or inventory that is out of season.

“Inventory has shifted from a major tailwind for freight demand to more of a neutral factor currently, with potential to become a considerable headwind if goods demand continues to decline,” ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer stated in the June Cass report.

Cass reported that the shipments index dipped 2.3% y/y in the month, following a 2.7% decline in May. While the index continues to moderate from 2021 levels, it was still 23.9% higher than the level recorded two years ago and 1.9% higher than June of 2019.

Assuming normal seasonality holds in the back half of the year, the shipments index is forecast to see y/y declines of 1% in the third quarter and 5% in the fourth quarter.

Freight costs hit all-time high

The expenditures index reached an all-time high in June, jumping 8.3% from May on a seasonally adjusted comparison. The index measures the total amount spent on freight.

Inferred rates, or expenditures divided by shipments, were up 11.7% in June, wiping out the 9.8% sequential decline seen in May. Mix had a big influence in the month as higher-priced truckload shipments accounted for a larger portion of total shipments. Less-than-truckload volumes were a smaller percentage of the freight mix.

The expenditures index was also 25% higher y/y and 95.5% higher than June of 2020. The report estimates that roughly 10 percentage points of the y/y change was tied to higher diesel fuel prices.

LTL rates were up sequentially in June by an undisclosed amount.

Denoyer said normal seasonality will likely keep the index in positive territory through the end of the year, with December logging only a 2% y/y increase. The data set was up 32% in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021.

The TL linehaul index, which excludes fuel and accessorial surcharges, fell 1.8% from May. However, the index was 11.6% higher than June of last year and 27.8% higher than June of 2020.

“After an extraordinary truckload rate cycle, the market balance has shifted, with capacity now growing briskly and demand falling, which will limit further upside in the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index and likely press it lower in the coming months,” Denoyer said.

The y/y increase in the linehaul index during June was the lowest this year but in line with the average of increases reported throughout 2021.

Even as the market has loosened and spot rates have dropped in recent months, many large carriers have indicated that contractual rate increases continue to come in above inflation and the industry’s higher cost profile. A better indication of contractual negotiations will come later this month when the public fleets report second-quarter results.  

Chart: (SONAR: OTRI.USA) A proxy for truck capacity, the Outbound Tender Reject Index, shows the number of loads being rejected by carriers. The index has fallen to just 7.4% compared to a year ago when fleets were rejecting more than 20% of loads under contract. To learn more about FreightWaves SONAR, click here.

Chart: (SONAR: NTI.USA) The National Truckload Index, a seven-day moving average of booked spot dry van loads inclusive of fuel across 250,000 lanes, has fallen significantly from highs recorded earlier this year.

Morgan Stanley survey sees ‘tumultuous times ahead’

Results from a Morgan Stanley sentiment survey released Wednesday showed that expectations around TL supply, demand and rates continue to signal a weakening freight market.

“While the extent of the decline signals something more than just a ‘normal’ destocking-driven transportation slowdown (i.e. 2019) but less than a broad recession (i.e. 2008/09), as one broker put it, we expect ‘tumultuous times ahead’ either way and look to next quarter for more definitive signs of its ultimate magnitude,” analyst Ravi Shanker commented in the report.

A recent shipper survey conducted by the firm registered the fourth-lowest economic outlook from respondents in the 20-year history of the data.

Data used in the Cass indexes is derived from freight bills paid by Cass, a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $37 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.

SWAMP STORIES

Wisconsin Elections Commission Fails To Release Guidance For Clerks After Supreme Court Rules Ballot Drop Boxes Illegal

WEDNESDAY, JUL 13, 2022 – 08:20 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) has yet to release new guidance on how to handle absentee ballots for the Aug. 9 primary election after the state’s Supreme Court ruled that ballot drop boxes are illegal.

Republicans and Democrats on the commission repeatedly hit an impasse on July 12, when it came to deciding the meaning of the court’s July 8 ruling and how it should be interpreted and handled by more than 1,800 municipal clerks ahead of the primary.

The court ruled 4–3 that drop boxes that enable people to drop off ballots cast by themselves and others are illegal under state law and voters must return their ballots in person.

We hold the documents are invalid because ballot drop boxes are illegal under Wisconsin statutes,” Justice Rebecca Bradley wrote in the majority opinion on July 8. “An absentee ballot must be returned by mail or the voter must personally deliver it to the municipal clerk at the clerk’s office or a designated alternate site.”

The court didn’t address the question of who can put an absentee ballot in the mail.

While state law says an absentee ballot “shall be mailed by the elector,” federal law allows for disabled people to receive assistance with their ballot, meaning the Supreme Court’s decision could make it more difficult for the disabled, as well as the elderly, to vote.

Potentially Confusing

At the commission meeting on July 13, Republicans said the panel should provide guidance to clerks running the elections to help them better understand the ruling, while Democrats argued that it’s unclear what the commission can tell clerks, saying that the proposed guidance went too far and could potentially confuse clerks and spark a slew of lawsuits.

Read more here…

King report

he King Report July 14, 2022 Issue 6800Independent View of the News
 US June CPI +1.3% m/m (1.1% exp), +9.1% y/y (8.8% exp, highest since Nov 1981; May 8.6%); Core 07% m/m (0.5% exp), 5.9% y/y (5.7% exp).  The BLS tabulated that Core CPI ex-shelter declined to 6.1% from 6.4%.  Voters vote their checkbooks, not BLS fabrications. 
 
The BLS: The energy index rose 7.5 percent over the month and contributed nearly half of the all items increase, with the gasoline index rising 11.2 percent and the other major component indexes also rising. The food index rose 1.0 percent in June, as did the food at home index…
   The all items less food and energy index rose 5.9 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index rose 41.6 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1980. The food index increased 10.4 percent for the 12-months ending June, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1981… https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
 
After the horrid June CPI Report, Fed swaps priced in 150bps of rate hike for the next two FOMC Meetings (July 27 & September 15).  The odds of a 100bp rate hike on July 27 hit 83.3% at 15:30 ET.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
 
Bank of Canada surprises with 100-bp rate hike as inflation risks gather steam http://reut.rs/3OYYmvT
 
Grocery Prices Rise at Fastest Pace Since 1979
Grocery prices increased 12.2% in June from a year earlier, the largest increase since April 1979. Costs for butter and margarine, fruits and vegetables and cereals all rose briskly.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-inflation-consumer-price-index-june-2022/card/grocery-prices-rise-at-fastest-pace-since-1979-5PxpnuIwbx6Lzpl6YQ18
 
@mlakan: Some food inflation data: Margarine: 34.5%, Eggs: 33.1%, Flour: 19.2%, Chicken: 18.6%, Milk: 16.4%, Coffee: 15.8%, Sausage: 13.6%, Bacon: 11.9%, Fish: 11%
 
Meat Inflation Eases as US Consumers Turn to Cheaper Cuts
Prices for a basket of foods including meat, poultry, fish and eggs dropped 0.4% from the previous month, taking seasonal adjustments into account…
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/meat-inflation-eases-as-us-consumers-turn-to-cheaper-cuts-1.1791482
 
WSJ’s @NickTimiraos: US CPI: The rent index rose 0.8% over the month, the largest monthly increase since April 1986, and the owners’ equivalent rent index rose 0.7%. https://t.co/ONCIFTughE
 
@zerohedge: The index for dental services increased 1.9 percent in June, the largest monthly change ever recorded for that series, which dates to 1995: BLS
 
@inflation_guy: Biggest increases in core categories were Motor Vehicle Maintenance and Repair (+27% annualized) and Motor Vehicle Insurance (+26%), both a function of rising parts and replacement costs. Used Cars/Trucks +21%. Footwear +21%. Jewelry +19%. Infants’ apparel +16%.
    So airfares fell, -1.82% m/m after a 12.5% surge last month. Lodging away from home -2.82% m/m. Car and truck rental -2.2% m/m. But Used Cars and Trucks +1.6%; New cars and trucks +0.7%.
 
@charliebilello: Price increases over last year: Fuel Oil: +98.5%, Gasoline: +59.9%, Gas Utilities: +38.4%, Electricity: +13.7%, Food at home: +12.2%, New Cars: +11.4%, Transportation: +8.8%, Food away from home: 7.7%, Used Cars: +7.1%, Shelter: +5.6%, Apparel: +5.2%
 
@jackikotkiewicz: Inflation hits another NEW 40-year high under Biden. Overall CPI: +9.1% since last year; Gas: +59.9%; Fuel Oil: +98.5%; Meat, Poultry, & Fish: +10.4%; Milk: +16.4%; Eggs: +33.1%; Coffee: +15.8%; New Vehicles +11.4%; Airline Fares: +34.1%; Real Average Hourly Earnings: -3.6%
 
For over 30 years we have preached the Gospel of BLS CPI greatly understates inflation.  Now, an increasing number of market pundits are preaching the same gospel.
 
@charliebilello: Shelter is the single biggest component of CPI (33% of the Index) and is still being wildly understated (@ +5.6% YoY) with rents up 14.1% over the last year and home prices up 20.4%. Which means that the true inflation rate is much higher than 9.1%. https://t.co/4pRUNxW0mq
 
@PeterSchiff: May CPI up 1.3%, 9.1% YoY, highest since 1981. Real inflation 18%, highest ever. When will markets figure out that tiny rate hikes put upward pressure on prices. Until we get massive QT, and large cuts in government spending and middle class tax hikes, inflation will get worse!
 
@JeffWeniger: As we get ready for tomorrow’s CPI, let’s remember that we’re dealing with make believe magic. For example, last month the BLS said the price of eggs rose from $1.625 to $2.863 over the last year, or +76.2%. But the CPI report, also from the BLS, said +32.2%. Magic.
https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1547021993597407232
 
A look at the CPI year over year change since 1970 https://yhoo.it/3RwLLBB
 
We have stated that the current inflationary environment is like the 1973-1974 inflation surge.  And if the Fed eases too soon, a bigger inflation surge, ala 1979-1980, will appear.
 
GOP Sen. @tedcruz: The Biden admin & Democrats are going to try to come up with a new ridiculous lie to spin these inflation numbers. They’ve already tried inflation is not happening, it’s transitory, it’s a “high class” problem, it’s a good thing, & it’s Putin’s fault. Nobody’s buying their spin.
 
@POTUS: Today’s report is a reminder that inflation is too high – fighting inflation is my top economic priority. And while the numbers today are not acceptable, they are also outdated.  In the past 30 days, the average price of gas has dropped by 40 cents a gallon.  (Who wrote this?  Joe was meeting with Israelis.)
 
Team Big Guy is counting on the sharp decline in gasoline since the June 10 peak to make CPI more benign.  However, gasoline is just 3.78% of CPI, and ‘other motor fuels’ are 0.074% of CPI.
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/motor-fuel.htm
 
Euro dips below $1.00 for first time since end-2002 https://t.co/eaNmaGlkW1
 
@zerohedge: Last week, Biden drained a near record 6.9MM in oil from the SPR. Total strategic midterm reserve inventory down to 485MM barrels, the lowest since Back to the Future came out
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1547230105096912902
 
The robust, but grossly understating real inflation, June CPI Report induced heightened fear of recession and a surge in short-term interest rates (more Fed tightening).
 
Yield curve inversion between 10-year and 2-year rates reaches biggest point (-24bps) since 2000
The 2-year, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, traded 9 basis points higher at around 3.13%. The benchmark 10-year rate, meanwhile, slid nearly 5 basis points to 2.91%…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/us-bonds-treasury-yields-tick-higher-as-traders-prepare-for-inflation.html
 
ESUs initially jumped to the daily high of 3873.00 on the release of the June CPI Report.  Fifteen minutes later (8:45 ET), they were at the daily low of 3752.00, a 121-point plunge.  Do we need to report what happened next?  Someone persistently bought ESUs and stocks thereafter.
 
ESUs and stocks peaked at 13:04 ET, with ESUs hitting 3832.50.  They then performed a modified A-B-C decline into the close.
 
The lesson from Wednesday’s action: The power of expiry-related schemes is so strong & inculcated that it can override one of the worst CPI reports in US history and looming large rate hikes!
 
USUs tumbled to the daily low of 137 18/32 after the June CPI Report release.  After a robust rally to 138 18/32 by the NYSE open, USUs retreated.  However, at 10:09 ET, USUs exploded higher and hit 140 2/32 at 10:48 ET.  After a moderate retreat that lasted over two hours, USUs rallied to the daily high of 140 14/32 at the NYSE close. 
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks once again rallied sharply after an early plunge in the US
Fangs rallied on Weird Wednesday/expiry-related buying and conditioned buying for Q2 results
The dollar retreated after the euro traded below parity
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Commodities rallied despite the recessionary action in yields and the yield curve
The US equity market, due to conditioned bullish behavior over decades, has not yet adjusted to the new realities of feverish inflation and aggressive Fed rate hikes
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How much will the dollar impact Q2 earnings?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3796.76
Previous session High/Low3829.44; 3759.07
 
US Democrats Urge New $650 Billion IMF Aid to Help Countries Hit by Crises – Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-12/us-democrats-urge-new-650-billion-imf-aid-on-ukraine-war-hit
 
(Ohio state) Senator Michael Rulli @michaelrulliI wish people in Washington DC would care about American citizens as much as they care about Ukraine.
 
More than 200 congressional staffers urge Pelosi and Schumer to act on climate or risk dooming younger generations – In a rare move, more than 200 congressional staffers have sent a letter to Democratic leadership in the House and Senate, demanding they close the deal on a climate and clean energy package and warning that failure could doom younger generations…
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/12/politics/congress-staffers-climate-letter-pelosi-schumer/index.html?s=02
 
Lowly congressional interns are showing utter contempt for Democratic leadership!
@ggreenwald: AXIOS: “We’re seeing a political realignment in real time.” “Dems are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about” social issues.  GOP is “quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters.” https://axios.com/newsletters/ax
 
Today is a tough call because Weird Wednesday expiry-related activity clouds the reaction and adjustment to new realities about coming Fed rate hikes.  The glass half-full/half-empty debate of yesterday’s action cannot be adjudicated accurately due to expiry schemes.
 
Therefore, it is mandatory that traders carefully monitor SPY July option volumes to ascertain what the impact players intend to do with the stock market.  SPY closed at 378.83.  SPY July 375 puts had volume of 153,969.  SPY July 280 calls had volume of 112,059.  July put volumes were larger than call volumes.
 
ESUs hit -29.00 and USUs are -20/32 at 19:40 ET.  Are traders fearful of the June PPI Report?
 
Expected Economic Data: June PPI 0.8% m/m, Core 0.5% m/m; Initial Jobless Claims 235k, Continuing Claims 1.38m; Fed Gov Waller on Economic Outlook 11 ET; Expected earnings: JPM 2.88, MS 1.58
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3950; 100-day MA: 4166; 150-day MA: 4311; 200-day MA: 4370
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,782; 100-day MA: 32,944; 150-day MA: 33,808; 200-day MA: 34,180
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4928.42 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4145.22 triggers a buy signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3749.11 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3859.22 triggers a buy signal
 
@RNCResearch: JOE BIDEN in Israel: “What am I doing now?”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1547199385745989633
 
@RNCResearch: Upon arriving in Israel, Biden jokes to a female servicemember: “I’m not going with you?   https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1547206993521287168
 
@RNCResearch: JOE BIDEN in Israel: “…to keep alive the truth and honor of the Holocaust — horror of the Holocaust”  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1547217645900029957
 
GOP Sen @tedcruz: The Biden admin couldn’t get through day 1 of their Middle East trip without a major gaffe. They had to clean up National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s comments that Biden wants a consulate in East Jerusalem.
 
@bennyjohnson: Creepy Joe is sniffing strangers againhttps://t.co/cOyj9ZtcUe
 
Biden lashes out at reporter asking about dismal approval among Dems: ‘Read the polls, Jack’
64% of Democratic voters agree that somewhat else should take the mantle in 2024…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-lashes-out-reporter-asking-about-dismal-approval-among-dems-read-polls-jack
 
GOP @RepTroyNehls: Who is Pamela Karlan?  She was a top official in the DOJ who upended state elections and pushed gender policies on children, all while quietly taking million-dollar checks from Soros-funded institutions.  Still don’t think Biden’s DOJ is politicized?
 
Anti-Trump Stanford law prof Pamela Karlan quietly leaves DOJ amid attacks on ‘unethical’ $1M salary   https://nypost.com/2022/07/12/pamela-karlan-quietly-leaves-doj-amid-attacks-on-unethical-1m-salary/amp/
 
@RNCResearch: Democrat Sen. Mazie Hirono claims it’s ridiculous to refer to the Founding Fathers when interpreting the Constitution: “Who the heck would know what our Founding Fathers meant?”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1546916863288000512
 
@KurtSchlichter: If only there was some way you could review the thoughts of individuals from some sort of medium in which they might have in some way recorded them.
 
‘Revolting’ Video of Uvalde Cops Fist-Bumping and Using Hand Sanitizer as Children Were Murdered Enrages All of Twitter https://t.co/Ds38UNxUai
 
Lebron James backtracks on remarks critical of the U.S. effort to bring home WNBA’s Britney Griner – The superstar player says he wasn’t “knocking our beautiful country.”
Earlier this week, a trailer for an upcoming episode of “The Shop: Uninterrupted” showed James saying he isn’t sure he would return to the United States if he were Griner – the WNBA player who has been locked up in Russia for months…In the clip, the star player said, “She’s been there over 110 days. Now, how could she feel like America has her back? I would be feeling like, ‘Do I even want to go back to America?'”  https://justthenews.com/nation/culture/lebron-james-backtracks-remarks-critical-us-effort-bring-britney-griner-home
 
@greg_price11: (Dem Sen.) Warren: “Crisis pregnancy centers that are there to fool people looking for pregnancy termination help outnumber abortion clinics by 3-1. We need to shut them down all around the country.”   https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1546957961439969280
 
@MaryMargOlohan: Erin Hawley, ADF senior counsel, addresses criticisms of pro-life pregnancy centers: “They are not fake centers. In 2019, they served 1.85 million families, provided $266 million worth of goods – of car seats, of baby formula, of diapers, of things that women really need… They also provide emotional counseling, they provide fatherhood training, housing, educational training, things that can enable women to survive and thrive.”  https://twitter.com/MaryMargOlohan/status/1547239313171259394
 
Dem’s erstwhile abortion credo – Safe, legal, & rare – has been jettisoned for…
 
J6 panel shuns live testimony from Trump associates, prefers to slice and dice taped depositions
“The reason they do this is to make a television moment consistent with their narrative,” says
Steve Bannon’s attorney Robert Costello… (Only rabid TDS suffers heed these hearings.)
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/jan-6-committee-relying-clips-videotaped-depositions-rather-live-public
 
Turley: “The 6 justices … Should Never Know Peace Again”: Harvard Instructor Calls for People to “Accost” Justices in Public – The tweet from Caraballo is the latest example of academics seeking to harass these justices because they hold opposing constitutional views. It is also an example of the addiction to rage that has developed in this country…Caraballo is also an advocate for censorship, calling for Twitter to ban the popular conservative site “Libs of TikTok” as a “terrorist” enterprise because it shows liberals talking about themselves…   
    These academics are fueling a sense of mob justice that will cause untold harm to our judicial system and the rule of law.   https://jonathanturley.org/2022/07/13/the-6-justices-should-never-know-peace-again-harvard-instructor-calls-for-people-to-accost-justices-in-public/
 
As Dick Durbin Condemns Abortion Restrictions in Senate Hearing, Cruz, Lee Expose His 1989 Call to End ‘Abortion on Demand’ (Why the huge change, Dick?) https://t.co/GOCGC33hmH
 
Arrest made in rape of Ohio girl that led to Indiana abortion drawing international attention
Gershon Fuentes, 27, whose last known address was an apartment on Columbus’ Northwest Side, was arrested Tuesday after police say he confessed to raping the child on at least two occasions. He’s since been charged with rape, a felony of the first degree in Ohio…
      Assistant Franklin County Prosecutor Dan Meyer requested Fuentes be held without bond. He said Fuentes is not believed to be in the country legally and there are questions about his identity…
    Meyer said the girl had just turned 10 recently, meaning she was likely impregnated at 9 years old
https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/07/13/columbus-man-charged-rape-10-year-old-led-abortion-in-indiana/10046625002/
   
@BillFOXLA: Per ICE source, Gerson Fuentes, the man charged with raping & impregnating a 10-year-old girl in Ohio, is a Guatemalan national in the U.S. illegally & ICE has placed a detainer on him with local law enforcement. The victim later traveled to Indiana for an abortion
 
@greg_price11: So a 10-year-old girl was raped in Ohio by an illegal alien and could’ve gotten a legal abortion in the state bc it threatened her life but the doctors didn’t report it to the police, shipped her over to Indiana, and turned it into a media story to sell abortion to the public.
 
In his zest to politicize abortion, The Big Guy has focused attention on illegal immigrant criminal acts, his open border policies, and possibly individuals that coverup criminal behavior.
 
Polls in June 2015 showed Trump was near Jeb Bush, the front runner.  An illegal immigrant killed Kate Steinle in SF on July 1, 2015.  Trump highlighted this crime at the first GOP debate (Aug. 3, 205) and went nuclear on illegal immigration.  RINO candidates like Jeb Bush and several others cowered from offending their Chamber of Commerce donors and supporters.  Trump’s ratings soared thereafter.
 
CNN: The mind-blowing turnaround in Donald Trump’s poll numbers explains why he’s blowing everyone out of the water     Dec 23, 2015
    Handling illegal immigration: This has always been a strong point for Trump with Republican voters going back to the early weeks of his campaign, when he proposed building a wall along the US-Mexico border. But in June, 18% of GOP voters thought Bush actually was best to handle the issue, compared with 14% for TrumpIn December, it’s not even close. Fifty-five percent of Republican voters trust Trump most on the issue. Cruz is next, with 15%. Bush gets just 3% of the vote…
https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-poll-lead-turnaround-2015-12
 
@lladany: This quote from Birx’s book may be the most damning of the entire US Covid response. In one paragraph, she states that she pushed for lockdowns without any data, always intended “two weeks to slow the spread” as a lie, and immediately wanted those two weeks extended.
https://twitter.com/lladany/status/1546929409239572480?s=02
 
Missouri AG @Eric_Schmitt: A federal court granted our request for discovery & documents from top ranking Biden officials & social media companies to get to the bottom of their collusion to suppress & censor free speech. No one has had the chance to look under the hood before – now we do… In our lawsuit, we allege that top-ranking Biden Administration officials colluded with those social media companies to suppress speech about the Hunter Biden laptop story, the origins of COVID-19, the efficacy of masks, and election integrity.  https://twitter.com/Eric_Schmitt/status/1546964267970318337?s=02
 
@ArtValley818_: KAMALA: “Together, we are expanding access to transportation.  Seems like maybe it’s a small issue; it’s a big issue.  You need to get to go and need to be able to get where you need to go to do the work; and get home.” https://twitter.com/ArtValley818_/status/1547245465057386498

 

 

Greg Hunter: interviewing 

See you FRIDAY

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