by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
sorry for missing yesterday. I needed a little break
and now I am back to tackle the gold/silver fraud.
GOLD; $1789.75 UP $29.00
SILVER: $20.16 UP 21 CENTS
ACCESS MARKET:
GOLD $1791.20
SILVER: $20.18
Bitcoin morning price: $22,883 DOWN 157 (FROM TUESDAY)
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $22,466. DOWN 574 (FROM TUESDAY
Platinum price: closing UP $20.00 to $931.30 (UP FROM TUESDAY)
Palladium price; closing UP $3.75 at $2078.45
END
I am going to take a one day break. So I will not be doing a commentary tomorrow Wednesday, August 3
I will resume on Thursday. However I will record all comex data and this will be up to date by Thursday.
Harvey
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,758.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/03/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/05/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 C GOLDMAN 26
072 H GOLDMAN 68
104 C MIZUHO 21
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 8
132 C SG AMERICAS 32
167 C MAREX 17
190 H BMO CAPITAL 17
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 367
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 48
661 C JP MORGAN 65 182
661 H JP MORGAN 3
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 12 1
686 H STONEX FINANCIA 57
690 C ABN AMRO 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 2 6
880 C CITIGROUP 8
880 H CITIGROUP 61
905 C ADM 3
TOTAL: 503 503
MONTH TO DATE: 26,006
JPMorgan stopped 182/503
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:
503 NOTICES FOR 50,300 OZ //1.5695 TONNES
total notices so far: 26,006 contracts for 2,600600 oz (80.889 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES:
54 NOTICES FILED FOR 270,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 782 : for 3,910,000 oz
END
Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX
With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $29.00
WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):
GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE
ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.65 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 21 CENTS
AT THE SLV// ://HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.527 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 486.634 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 804 CONTRACTS TO 135,463 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.22 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.22) BUT WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS//. HOWEVER WE HAD SOME SPECULATOR LIQUIDATIONS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 428 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//HUGE BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A FAIR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 280,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP / // V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(SPEC LIQUIDATION)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -31
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST:
TOTAL CONTACTS for 4 days, total 2506 contracts: 12.530 million oz OR 3.13 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (626 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 13.530 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 12.530 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 804 WITH OUR $0.22 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 345 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER ADDITIONS ////// HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATION// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 280,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 459 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 2.295 MILLION OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.
WE HAD 54 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 270,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 489 CONTRACTS TO 459,160 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -398 CONTRACTS.
.
THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $12.95//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//HUGE ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.
WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 96.882 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $12.95 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1331 OI CONTRACTS 4.139 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1814 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 459,160
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1331 CONTRACTS WITH4891 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1814 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 131 CONTRACTS OR 4.139 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1814) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (489): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1331 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//STRONG BANKER ADDITIONS// ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 5700 oz. 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :
6886 CONTRACTS OR 688,600 OZ OR 21.41 TONNES 4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1721 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 21.41 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 21.41/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.603% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 21.41 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 804 CONTRACT OI TO 135,463 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 345 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 345 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 345 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 804 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 345 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 459 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.295 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.22
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,
(Peter Schiff,
end
3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 26.87 PTS OR 0.80% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 406.85 OR 0.69% /The Nikkei closed UP 190.30 OR % 0.69. //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.06% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7536//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7610// /Oil DOWN TO 91.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 96.74// SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 26.37 PTS OR 0.80% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 406.85 OR 2.06% /The Nikkei closed UP 190.30 OR % 0.69. //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.06% / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 804 CONTRACTS TO 459,160 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS SMALL COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG FALL OF $12.95 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1814 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.
WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1814 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC :1814 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1814 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED SIZED TOTAL OF 1723 CONTRACTS IN THAT1814 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 489 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 12.95. . WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST (96.882),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:96.882 TONNES
THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $12.95) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS // COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO COVER TO THEIR POSITIONS////// WE HAVE REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1723 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (96.882 TONNES)…
WE HAD -398 CONTRACTS SUBTRACTED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1331 CONTRACTS OR 133,100 OZ OR 4.139 TONNES
Estimated gold volume 148,865/// poor/
final gold volumes/yesterday 170,107 / poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 4
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 168,410.767oz Brinks HSBC Manfra 9 kilobars (Brinks) |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 7634.102 oz Brinks |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 503 notice(s) 50300 OZ 1.5695 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 5129 contracts 512,900 oz 15.95 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 26006 notices 2,600,600 OZ 80.889TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
total dealer deposit 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 1
i) Into Brinks: 7634.102 oz
total deposits: 7634.102 oz
3 customer withdrawals:
i) out of Brinks: 289.354 oz (9 kilobars)
ii) Out of HSBC: 160,487.311 oz
iii) Out of Manfra: 7634.102 oz
total in tonnes:5.23 tonnes
(yesterday 213,843 oz leaves the comex; 6.65 tonnes)
total withdrawal: 194,418.105 oz (6.04 tonnes)
Adjustments:
customer to dealer Malca: 28,453.635 oz
and: Manfra: 35,474.704 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 5623 contracts having LOST 91 contracts .
We had 148 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 57 contracts or an additional 5700 oz will stand for delivery in this very active month of August.
From this point on, we will now add to the amount of gold standing at the comex until the end of the month.
Sept. lost 518 contracts to 3610 contracts.
October lost 1013contracts down to 40,277
We had 503 notice(s) filed today for 50,300 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 65 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 503 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 182 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (26,006) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (AUGUST 5632 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 503 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,113,500 OZ OR 96.842 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of AUGUST.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:
No of notices filed so far (26006) x 100 oz+ (5632) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (503} x 100 oz} which equals 3,113,500 oz standing OR 96.842 TONNES in this active delivery month of August.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 96.665 TONNES (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST ( ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)
SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 2,357,015.501 oz 73,31 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 29,696,008.097 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 14,964,982.229 OZ (474.77 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,731,025.868 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 12,607,967.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 392.16 tonnes//rapidly declining
END
SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 4
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 702,464.276 oz CNT Int.Delaware Manfra |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 83,064.300 oz CNT |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 54 CONTRACT(S) 270,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 102 contracts (510,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 782 contracts 3,910,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
And now for the wild silver comex results
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 0 deposits into the customer account
total deposit: nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 174.605 million oz/333.738 million =52.20% of comex
Comex withdrawals: 3
i) out of CNT: 301,340.7630z
i1) Out of Manfra: 270,720,270 oz
iii) out of Int. Delaware 130,803.244 oz
total: 702,464.276 oz
adjustments: 0/
Yesterday: nothing appreciable left the comex
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 55.520 MILLION OZ
TOTAL REG + ELIG. 333.738 MILLION OZ
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 156 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 35 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 21 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY
SO WE GAINED 56 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 280,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY. THE AMOUNT STANDING
WILL NOW INCREASE ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.
SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 1579 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 95,654
OCTOBER GAINED ITS FIRST 11 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 11
CONTRACTS.
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 54 for 270,000 oz
Comex volumes:54,925// est. volume today// fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 51,877 contracts ( fair )
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 782 x 5,000 oz = 3,910,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(156) and the number of notices served upon today 54 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 782 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (156) – number of notices served upon today (54) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 4,420,000 oz. .
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES
AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//
AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES
JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES
JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES
JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES
JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES
JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES
JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES
JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//
JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES
JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES
JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES
JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES
JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES
JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES
JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES
JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES
JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1000.65 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//
JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/
JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/
JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//
JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//
JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//
JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//
JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/
JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//
JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//
JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ.
JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//
JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ
JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.
JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/
JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ
JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//
JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..
JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ
JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 486.634 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1.PETER SCHIFF
Peter Schiff: This Recession Is Just Getting Started
WEDNESDAY, AUG 03, 2022 – 09:40 AM
GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter. This followed on the heels of a -1.6 GDP print in Q1. Back-to-back contractions in GDP have historically been defined as a recession, but the Biden administration and their apologists insist we aren’t in a recession. Peter Schiff appeared on the Megyn Kelly show to talk about the White House recession spin. He said this recession is just getting started.
The mantra from the White House is that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP isn’t the “technical” definition of a recession and that the economy is just entering into “another phase of recovery.” Peter said, “I guess they believe if you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it.”
But imagine if Donald Trump had tried to do the same thing.
Do you think the media would go along with that?”
Peter emphasized that two negative quarters are “just a minimum for a recession.”
We’re going to get a third negative quarter. We’re going to get a fourth negative quarter. We’re going to be seeing contracting GDP for years. This recession is just getting started.”
And the increase in unemployment is coming.
People who are pointing to the low unemployment rate and saying this means we’re not in a recession, that’s nonsense. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. The unemployment rate is going to rise as the recession continues.”
Furthermore, the labor market isn’t strong.
We have a very weak labor market. Real wages are collapsing. Wages have never really fallen this much in real terms in history. That is a weak labor market. When you have a strong labor market, workers can demand raises. They have power. They can go to their bosses and say, ‘I want more money or I’m going to quit and take another job.’ That’s not happening. Workers are being forced to work for pay cuts. In fact, a lot of workers are taking second jobs and third jobs because they can’t make ends meet on their main job. That is a weak labor market.”
Megyn read quotes from a number of Biden administration officials in the past saying two quarters of negative GDP growth is the definition of a recession and then saying the exact opposite in the last week. Peter said he’s 59 years old and he’s never heard a recession defined any other way.
Recession refers to whether or not the GDP is expanding or contracting. It doesn’t refer to the level of unemployment or the level of inflation. It’s specifically there to reference what is happing with GDP. That’s how they define economic growth. I mean, I have a lot of problems with GDP. But that’s how recession has been defined. Recovery is when the GDP is expanding. Recession is when it’s contracting. That’s it!”
Megyn cited a report from the Dispatch outlining concerns about a “wage-price spiral” because wage increases of 5.1% in Q1 beat expectations (despite not keeping up with inflation). Peter called the wage-price spiral “another fiction” created by the government in the 1970s. It is essentially a way to blame the private sector for inflation it created.
Inflation is not created by workers demanding raises. It’s not created by companies raising prices. It’s created by the government expanding the money supply. That’s the literal definition of inflation. … When you inflate the money supply, prices go up. Wages are just another price. They are the price of labor.”
Peter pointed out that the wage numbers are likely accurate, but the CPI is not. It is closer to 18% than 9%. That means real wages are collapsing. Meanwhile, the saving rate is at the lowest level since mid-2009. What was happening to the economy in mid-2009?
We were in the Great Recession. So, the last time we had a savings rate this low, we were in a huge recession. Why is the savings rate so low? Because the recession is forcing workers to dip into their savings to pay their bills because their pay increases aren’t enough.”
end
Peter Schiff:
Peter Schiff: Damn The Recession! It’s Rate-Hikes Ahead!
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 11:19 AM
After the second straight negative GDP print in Q2, the markets began anticipating that the Federal Reserve would pivot away from its monetary tightening. But a few choice words from some Fed members this week caused thoughts of a pivot to pivot. As Peter Schiff put it in his podcast, it appears to be damn the recession! Full ahead with rate hikes. The question is how long can the Fed keep this up?
On Tuesday, we saw a big drop in the stock market, as well as gold and silver, after a strong rally late last week and into Monday on the back of the GDP news.
Meanwhile, the yield on a one-year Treasury bill exceeded the yield on a 30-year US Treasury bond. That not only confirms recession but also indicates that investors are confident inflation will return to 2% and stay there for 30 years.
This was all driven by more hawkish talk from members of the Federal Reserve.
All the talk of a Powell Pivot has taken a back seat.”
Neil Kashkari started things off over the weekend when he appeared on Face the Nation and said, “Whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn’t change my analysis.” He went on to say, “We’re going to do everything we can to avoid a recession, but we are committed to bringing inflation down, and we are going to do what we need to do.”
Kashkari is typically one of the most doveish FOMC members. But Peter said he changed his feathers and sounded like a hawk.
He stayed on script and said the Fed is committed to fighting inflation and bringing inflation back down to 2%. He didn’t seem to care about the economy. He seemed steadfast in his resolve and commitment to get inflation down to 2%.”
On Monday, more Fed members piled on, singing the same song. They downplayed any issues with the economy and didn’t express any worry even if it is in a recession. In fact, they’re toeing the Democratic Party line that the economy is strong.
Perhaps the most outspoken was San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. She said she was “puzzled” by bond market prices that reflect investor expectations for the central bank to shift to rate cuts in the first half of next year. She insisted the central bank will keep raising rates and then hold them there “for a while.”
With all of this talk, the markets seem to be reconsidering the possibility of a pivot, or at least pushing back the pivot further in time.
That’s why you’re seeing both a backup in short-term rates and an inversion in the yield curve because the markets recognize that regardless of what the Fed is saying about a strong economy, their fight against inflation will put this strong economy into recession, if it’s not already in recession. In fact, if it is in recession, the Fed is committed to making the recession worse in order to fight inflation.”
But Peter said there is something the markets haven’t figured out. They still think the central bank will succeed in its fight against inflation. They believe if the rate hikes don’t do the trick, the recession will.
Either way, the markets think inflation is going away. But the markets are wrong on both fronts. These rate hikes are not going to be sufficient to get rid of inflation. We still have negative interest rates and the Fed isn’t even going to come close to getting rates to neutral, let alone positive real rates that would be required to actually fight inflation. And at some point, the economy is going to be so weak that FOMC members are not going to be able to pretend that it’s strong. They’re not going to be able to shrug off all the evidence of a severe recession. And we are going to get the pivot.”
Peter said the Fed will keep up the pretense and bluff as long as they can. But ultimately, they’ll show their cards and make that pivot back to loose money.
In this podcast, Peter goes on to note that the Fed has abandoned inflation averaging, and he talks about the record levels of household debt. He also discusses the collapse in real wages, the threat of China damaging the US economy, and the urgency to buy gold before the Chinese get to it.
end
2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz
3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Turkish central bank sends gold back to London, likely to secure FX loans
A MUST READ.
Courtesy Jan Nieuwenhuijs (aka Koos Jansen)
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-08-02 14:38Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jan Nieuwenhuijs
Gainsville Coins
Lutz, Florida
Tuesday, August 2, 2022
After having repatriated 104 tonnes from the Bank of England in 2018, the Central Bank of Turkey sent gold back to London in 2020 and 2021.
Amid economic turmoil that has been weakening the Turkish lira, the central bank is likely using its gold at Bank of England as collateral for foreign exchange loans.
Turkey’s situation is reminiscent of Venezuela several years ago.
Computing Turkey’s net gold reserves is complicated, because since 2011 the central bank and the Turkish Treasury have launched several schemes to borrow gold, which all show up on the central bank’s balance sheet.
Simplified, what I have done is take the tonnage “owned by the central bank” as reported in its annual report — this excludes gold submitted by banks for reserve requirements and the treasury’s gold — and subtracted outstanding Turkish lira for gold swaps. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/turkish-central-bank-sends-gold-to-london
END.
Sprott launches gold fund: Sprott ESG and will use gold directly from Agnico Eagle. Thus this gold will never see the comex which is good.
(Chris Powell/GATA et al)
Another gold fund for the politically correct — and the bullion banks
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-08-02 15:20Section: Daily Dispatches
Some discouraging disclosure from the company, admitting that the fund will operate just like GLD as the tool of the bullion banks:
“Shares are not individually redeemable. Investors buy and sell shares of the Sprott ESG Gold ETF on a secondary market. Only market makers or ‘authorized participants’ may trade directly with the fund, typically in blocks of 50,000 shares.”
* * *
Sprott Launches First ESG Gold ETF
Company Announcement
via Globe Newswire, Islandia, New York
Tuesday, August 2, 2022
TORONTO — Sprott Asset Management, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sprott Inc., today announced the launch of the Sprott ESG Gold ETF (NYSE Arca: SESG), the first exchange-traded fund to exclusively source and refine gold from globally recognized mining leaders in ESG based on special criteria developed by Sprott.
The new ETF will begin trading today on the New York Stock Exchange Arca.
SESG is the first gold ETF that invests in gold bullion that meets the environmental, social, and governance (“ESG”) and provenance standards specially developed by Sprott. Sprott has partnered with the Royal Canadian Mint to provide investors with an ETF that sources gold only from companies and mines that meet Sprott’s ESG screening criteria.
Initially, Sprott ESG Approved Gold will be sourced from several Canadian mines operated by Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. and Yamana Gold.
John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, said: “We created SESG to fill a gap in the marketplace with a gold fund focused on trust, transparency, and traceability.
Our goal is to answer a number of key questions for investors: Where does my gold come from, who produced it and was it produced sustainably by recognized ESG leaders?
“Through our partnership with the Royal Canadian Mint and our relationships with leading Canadian gold producers, Sprott is uniquely positioned to offer a convenient way for investors to own physical gold that aligns with their ESG values.”
… For the remainder of the announcement:
end
Again LBMA silver inventories have reached a 6 year low falling below one billion ounces.
The comex is also losing silver rapidly.
(Ronan Manly)
Ronan Manly: LBMA silver inventories near 6-year low, falling below 1 billion ounces
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-08-03 10:04Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ronan Manly
Bullion Star, Singapore
Wednesday, August 3, 2022
One trend in the precious metals markets that has yet to get widespread coverage but deserves more attention is the plummeting inventories of physical silver in the London vaults of the London Bullion Market Association.
These LBMA vaults comprise vaults in and around London run by the bullion banks JP Morgan, HSBC, and ICBC Standard Bank, as well as the London vaults of three security operators, Brinks, Malca-Amit, and Loomis, the London sub-Billion Market Association.
Quietly and almost under the radar, the quantity of silver held in the LBMA vaults has been consistently hemorrhaging for seven months now. Latest data from the LBMA as of the end of June 2022 shows that the LBMA vaults now hold only 997.4 million ounces of silver (31,023 tonnes).
Compares to the end of June 2021 when LBMA silver inventories stood at 1.18 billion ounces (36,706 tonnes), the LBMA vaults’ June 2022 month-end silver inventories are now 182.7 million ozs (5,683 tonnes) lower than a year ago — a whopping 15.48% lower compared to June 2021. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
end
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
JPMorgan’s ‘Manipulative’ Metals Desk Consistently Made Hundreds Of Millions In Profits Every Year From 2008 To 2018
WEDNESDAY, AUG 03, 2022 – 06:55 AM
Former head of precious metals at J.P. Morgan, Michael Nowak, is currently on trial with colleagues Gregg Smith and Jeffrey Ruffo in Chicago regarding whether or not they conspired to manipulate gold and silver markets.
While that may not be news to many Zero Hedge readers, some of the inner workings of J.P. Morgan’s metals desk, as detailed in a new Bloomberg report, may be.
It was revealed in court that the bank’s annual profits from its metals desk, which aren’t usually broken out in the bank’s earnings reports, made astonishingly consistent “annual profits between $109 million and $234 million a year between 2008 and 2018.”
Those profits came mostly from trading in financial markets, Bloomberg noted, but trading and transporting metals also made the bank about $30 million, per year, on average.
In 2020, amidst the Covid panic, the bank made $1 billion from precious metals due to “unprecedented arbitrage opportunities”.
The bank holds tens of billions of dollars worth of gold in various vaults it has in places like New York and London, Bloomberg writes. It is the biggest player of several “bullion banks”, the report notes, with about 40% of all transactions in the gold market in 2010 clearing through J.P. Morgan.
The bank’s metals traders were “remunerated handsomely”, the report notes. In fact, they made so much money that the jury audibly gasped when it learned how much they made. Ruffo made $10.5 million between 2008 to 2016 and Smith received $9.9 million. Nowak cleared $23.7 million over the same period of time.
Ruffo made the bank $70.3 million in profit between 2008 to 2016, while Smith generated $117 million and Nowak made $186 million.
Perhaps this is why the bank is often brought up anytime there are rumors and unconfirmed discussions about large short positions in the gold and silver markets. The bank has also been in the spotlight for spoofing being “open strategy” on its trading desk.
end
Looks like we have a David vs Goliath case against our good friends over at JPMorgan
Judge Orders Jury Trial for JPMorgan Whistleblower Who Claims Bank Fired Her for Reporting Suspicious Payments to Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: August 3, 2022 ~
Tony Blair
Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair
Playing out in a federal courtroom in Chicago have been JPMorgan traders telling a jury that it was standard operating procedure at the bank to rig precious metals markets in order to make huge profits for their trading desk. That case is U.S. v. Smith in the Northern District Court in Chicago. (Case number 1:19-cr-00669.)
Now there may be more explosive revelations spilling out against JPMorgan Chase in the Southern District Court in Manhattan beginning this fall. That case is Shaquala Williams v JPMorgan Chase. (Case number 1:21-cv-0932.) Last week, Judge Jed Rakoff, who is overseeing the Williams case, ruled that JPMorgan’s motion for dismissal would not prevail on Williams’ claim for retaliatory dismissal and ruled that a jury trial would begin on November 7. (Judge Rakoff did dismiss the Williams’ claim that the bank’s actions had adversely affected a job offer.)
Williams is an attorney who previously worked as a compliance official at JPMorgan Chase. She is suing the bank for retaliating against her protected whistleblowing activities by terminating her employment after she raised concerns about improper activities at the bank.
One of those improper activities involves Tony Blair, who served as Prime Minister of the U.K. from 1997 to 2007. Blair started taking down big bucks from JPMorgan not long after leaving his post as Prime Minister. JPMorgan Chase issued a press release on January 10, 2008, announcing that Blair was being hired as a “senior advisor” and would be joining JPMorgan’s International Council.
Williams is a financial crimes compliance professional with more than a decade of experience at multiple global banks. Part of Williams’ role at JPMorgan Chase was to make sure that the bank was in compliance with a non-prosecution agreement the bank had signed with the Justice Department in 2016. (The bank has admitted to an unprecedented five criminal felony counts since 2014 and received deferred- prosecution agreements for those.) All of these frauds occurred while Jamie Dimon was Chairman and CEO of the bank.
Not only are this many felony charges unprecedented at a U.S. megabank, but the failure of federal regulators and the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase to demand that Dimon step down is equally unprecedented.
The 2016 non-prosecution agreement that Williams was supervising compliance with for the bank stemmed from charges brought by the Justice Department that JPMorgan’s Asia subsidiary had engaged in quid pro quo agreements with Chinese officials to obtain investment-banking business and had falsified internal documents to cover up the activities. The quid pro quo agreements resulted in the bank putting the children of high Chinese government officials on its payroll in order to further its business interests in China.
In exchange for avoiding prosecution, the Justice Department required JPMorgan to create compliance controls around third-party payments. Williams alleges, among numerous other serious charges, that the so-called third- party payment controls were a sham and that when she blew the whistle to her superiors at the bank, the bank retaliated against her by firing her in October 2019.
The lawsuit uses the term “TPI” for Third-Party Intermediaries and defines it as follows:
“The purported purpose of JPMorgan’s TPI program was to detect, prevent, and deter JPMorgan personnel and non- client third parties such as agents, consultants, vendors, and suppliers, from engaging in corrupt behavior to obtain or secure business or government action on the Bank’s behalf.”
Williams defines a person known as TPI1 as follows in her complaint:
“…a former government official (‘TPI1’) was a high risk JPMorgan third-party intermediary for Jamie Dimon (‘Dimon’), JPMorgan’s Chief Executive Officer. The Bank processed the invoices for TPI1 through the ‘emergency payment method.’ The Bank’s policies made clear that the ‘emergency payment method’ should be used for urgent payments critical to the day-to-day operations of Chase such as emergency utility bills ‘to prevent the lights from going out.’ The TPI1 invoices did not satisfy this standard, thus leaving the payment method open to unchecked corrupt payments and violations of the Bank’s accounting controls, the NPA [non-prosecution agreement], SEC Order, SEC rules and regulations, and provisions of Federal law relating to fraud against shareholders. Further, the payments as reflected in the general ledger did not correspond with management’s general or specific authorization for the invoice payments, thereby creating inaccurate records that also constituted violations of the NPA, the SEC Order, SEC rules and regulations and/or provisions of Federal law relating to fraud against shareholders.”
A noteworthy part of the Justice Department’s November 17, 2016 non-prosecution agreement with JPMorgan Chase reads as follows:
“In addition, during the Term of the Agreement, should the Company or JPMC learn of credible evidence or allegations of actual or potentially corrupt payments, false books, records, and accounts, or the failure to implement adequate internal accounting controls, the Company or JPMC shall promptly report such evidence or allegations to the Offices [the ‘Offices’ are defined as the Department of Justice Criminal Division and the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York]….”
If the bank did not itself report these questionable third-party payments and then fired one of its own compliance officials for reporting the payments to her superiors, that might be a serious problem beween JPMorgan Chase and prosecutors at the Justice Department.
Page 157 of Williams’ deposition, now part of the public court record, contains the following revelations about Tony Blair: (“Q” represents a question from the attorney for JPMorgan; “A” represents the answer from Williams.)
Q: “Did you ever allege a failure of accounting controls?
A: “That’s correct.
Q: “In what respect?
A: “So in — in terms — well, we can just use the Tony Blair example as one example of this. He has — he was paid using an emergency payment method that the global suppliers’ services team, Tim Napier, escalated to me and it didn’t meet any of the criteria for that method, and the CFO signed off on all of his invoices for the wet signature, and at an institution like this it’s very odd that she’s not approving something like this through a system. And at the time the CFO was Marianne Lake and it seemed — or not seemed, this is actually what was happening, Mr. Blair — Mr. Blair’s expenses as a TPI were being paid through this method as an emergency where it should have just been a typical TPI salary payment and that payment method was wide open for anyone to use; as long as they knew where it was, they could just click through it and pay whoever they wanted for whatever they wanted…”
Jamie Dimon cannot be happy about the outcome of this case going to trial in a courtroom open to reporters. It’s bad enough that two trial lawyers have written a book comparing Dimon’s leadership of the bank to the Gambino crime family, and Bloomberg News spilling the secrets coming out of the Chicago precious metals trial, but now Dimon is likely to see new headlines linking his name to questionable payments to Tony Blair and unknown others.
Dimon also can’t be happy that his bank has been paying big bucks to the Big Law firm, Morgan Lewis, to stop the Williams case from going to trial. Morgan Lewis has 2200 lawyers in 31 offices around the world. Representing Williams is the law firm, Vladeck, Raskin & Clark, which has 10 lawyers in one office in New York.
Will this case be a triumph for David v Goliath? Will truth and justice prevail? Or will Williams take a quiet settlement between now and November 7? Stay tuned.
-END-
end
5.OTHER COMMODITIES: WHEAT//GRAINS/DIESEL
COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES
end
7. GOLD/ TRADING
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7556
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7610
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 406.85 PTS OR 2.06%
2. Nikkei closed UP 190.30 OR 0.69%
3. Europe stocks CLOSED ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 106,26/Euro RISES TO 1.0179
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.169/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 133.76/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: UP -// OFF- SHORE UP
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +0.819%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.05% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.89%…
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 2.9670//
3j Gold at $1784.50 silver at: 20.30 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 36/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.22
3m oil into the 91 dollar handle for WTI and 96 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 133.76DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9594– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9765well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.697 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.952 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.97
Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE
Futures Flat As Crushing 37bps Curve Inversion Screams Recession
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 08:25 AM
US futures are mixed on Thursday, first trading in the red, then turning green before moving unchanged, as investors shrugged off growth warnings from the bond market while Taiwan war fears faded further despite drills launched by China overnight. Oil bounced back from the lowest level in almost six months. Contracts on the S&P 500 were flat while Nasdaq futures were modestly green, suggesting the tech-heavy Nasdaq will extend an advance of 19% from its June 16 low on the back of a massive CTA, buyback and retail-driven buying frenzy.
In premarket trading, Alibaba gained 3.4% after reporting revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Adjusted earnings per American depositary receipt also topped expectations. Altice USA shares jumped 5% after the cable television provider reported second-quarter results and announced it received inquiries for its Suddenlink assets. US-listed Chinese tech stocks including JD.com, Pinduoduo and Baidu rise in premarket trading Thursday as Alibaba shares jump 3.9% after reporting better-than-expected revenue in the first quarter. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- AMTD Idea (AMTD) shares slump 11.5% putting the Hong-Kong based financial services firm on track to slump for a second straight day after a wild 237% jump earlier this week.
- Eli Lilly (LLY) falls 2% after the company cut its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.
- Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX) slides 2.5% after reporting second quarter results that missed consensus analyst estimates for revenue and posted a loss per share, and announced a CEO change.
- Fastly Inc. (FSLY) shares are down 7% after the infrastructure software company reported second quarter revenue that beat expectations.
- Gannett Co. Inc. (GCI) shares plunge 5% after the company lowered its full-year revenue and Ebitda outlook, citing “current economic conditions.”.
- Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) was downgraded to market perform from outperform at Cowen, with analyst Oliver Chen saying a “weakening and inflationary consumer backdrop” could drive EPS downside. Shares decline 3%.
- Pacific Biosciences (PACB) 2Q results look broadly in line but guidance has been cut significantly, albeit this is not a major surprise, analysts say. Shares down 4% in US premarket trading.
- Revolve Group Inc. (RVLV) shares are down 13% after the e-commerce fashion company reported quarterly net sales and earnings per share that fell short of analysts’ expectations.
- Skillz (SKLZ) shares tumble 11.6% after the mobile games platform operator cut its full-year guidance for revenue, with Citi noting that revenue and user metrics disappointed.
- Under Armour (UAA) is downgraded to neutral from outperform at Baird, which says its view of the athletic-wear retailer’s near-term prospects has “deteriorated materially” over the past two quarters, and faces further pressure from an uncertain macroeconomic environment. The stock declines 0.5% in premarkettrading.
- Yellow Corp. (YELL) shares jump 37% after the logistics company reported earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
So far US stocks have proven resilient to heightened bond market anxiety and an inverted Treasury yield curve flashing warnings on economic risks, as the S&P 500 climbs back toward the highest level in two months ignoring the screaming recession warning from the 2s10s curve which is now 37bps inverted.
But a global wave of monetary tightening risks upending those gains. The Bank of England unleashed its first half-point hike since 1995 in an effort to control inflation, joining some 70 other institutions around the world moving rates up in outsized steps.
“There’s an intense tug-of-war happening in the economy and markets,” said Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. “On one side, you have a narrative that reasonable growth is going to support continued inflation pressure and keep the Fed hiking. The other narrative is that slowing growth is going to ease inflation and allow the Fed to stop hiking.”
Meanwhile, US-China tension remains among the uncertainties clouding the outlook. Taiwan braced for the Chinese military to start firing in exercises being held around the island in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Here are the latest headlines surrounding Taiwan/Pelosi:
- China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said the Taiwan issue is not a regional issue but is a China internal affairs issue, while it added that punishment of pro-Taiwan independence diehards and external forces is reasonable and lawful.
- Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said unidentified aircraft which were likely drones, flew above Kinmen Islands on Wednesday night, while the military fired flares to drive away the aircraft, according to Reuters.
- Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said troops will continue to reinforce alertness level and are carrying out daily training as usual, while the military will react appropriately to an enemy situation and safeguard national security and sovereignty, according to Reuters.
- ASEAN Foreign Ministers are concerned about international and regional volatility and are concerned volatility could lead to a miscalculation, serious confrontation, open conflicts, and unpredictable consequences among major powers, according to Reuters.
- US House Speaker Pelosi plans to visit an inter-Korean border area jointly controlled by the American-led UN Command and North Korea, according to a South Korean official cited by Reuters.
- China’s PLA has added an additional zone for its military exercise encircling Taiwan starting Thursday, exercises have been extended until Monday at 10:00, via dwnews’ Yang citing Taiwan’s port authority. Now seven zones around Taiwan.
Gains in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index were led by retailers, leisure and technology firms, alongside an advance in shares of Chinese tech companies. Among individual stock moves, Glencore Plc shares fell as much as 2% as its capital return plans overshadowed solid first-half results. Ubisoft shares surged as much as 21% after Tencent reached out to Ubisoft’s founding Guillemot family and expressed interest in increasing its stake, according to Reuters. Here are the most notable European movers:
- Rolls-Royce drops as much as 12% in London. Jefferies highlights that 1H adjusted Ebit came in 24% below consensus, is disappointed Civil margin “once stripped of a number of one-offs, remains well below breakeven.”
- SES shares drop as much as 10%, the most intraday since April 2020, as some analysts raised doubts about a potential combination with Intelsat after the FT reported deal talks between the two companies.
- Ambu falls as much as 16%, the most intraday since May 6, after the company slashed its organic revenue forecast for the full year and said it will cut about 200 jobs from its global workforce.
- Lufthansa gains as much as 7.4% after the airline forecast a “significant increase” in earnings in the third quarter compared to the second and provided a clearer outlook for full-year profit, predicting adjusted Ebit of more than EU500m.
- Next shares climb as much as 3.2% after the UK apparel retailer reported better-than-expected 2Q sales and raised its profit outlook for the year.
- Adidas shares gain as much as 4.4% after the German sportswear company reported 2Q results that were largely in line with expectations, following last week’s profit warning.
- Merck KGaA shares rise as much as 1.7% after the German pharmaceutical group’s 2Q report showed stable growth for its Life Science division despite abating Covid-19 tailwinds, with Jefferies saying it sends a “positive message” for the rest of 2022.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rebounded as easing tensions over Taiwan and overnight gains on the Nasdaq fueled a rally in Chinese tech shares ahead of key earnings reports. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.5%, set for its first gain in three sessions. Alibaba, which is scheduled to release earnings later Thursday, and e-commerce peers Meituan and JD.com helped boost the Hang Seng Tech Index as much as 3.4%, most in more than a month. Other benchmarks in Hong Kong and South Korea’s tech-heavy Kosdaq were among the region’s outperformers.
“Hong Kong stock markets are getting re-rated after seeing the risk-off mood due to Taiwan tensions, as there were no military conflicts,” said Xuehua Cui, a China equity analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi left Taiwan after reaffirming US support for the democratically elected government in Taipei. China responded with trade curbs and military drills. Elsewhere in Asia, the main Philippine index reached its highest since June 10 on foreign inflows. Asia’s key stock benchmark has rebounded from its July low, but its recent recovery has been lagging behind US peers amid a property crisis in China and heightened geopolitical risks.
Japanese equities erased earlier gains and slipped as Toyota announced first-quarter earnings that missed estimates and as investors continue to evaluate corporate earnings both domestically and abroad. The Topix Index was virtually unchanged at 1,930.73 with Toyota Motor leading declines as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.7% to 27,932.20. Toyota Motor shares dropped during market hours as the automaker reported disappointing first quarter earnings and kept its conservative outlook for the current year. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,198 rose and 849 fell, while 123 were unchanged. “Toyota Motor’s financial results confirmed that the impact of high raw material and fuel prices was strong enough to offset the effects of the weak yen,” said Shuji Hosoi, an analyst at Daiwa Securities. “The fact that the company didn’t change its full-year operating income forecast negatively impacted the markets, which had been expecting an upward revision.”
India’s Sensex index snapped a six-session rally, dragged by Reliance Industries and leading lenders, on risk-aversion ahead of a monetary-policy announcement on Friday. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.1% to 58,298.80, in Mumbai, after paring decline of as much as 1.3% in the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index was flat. Both gauges posted early gains and appeared headed for their longest winning streaks since October 2021, but reversed course. “The sudden drop in indexes is most likely led by ‘basket selling’ from foreign portfolio investors ahead of the central bank’s rate decision on Friday,” said Abhay Agarwal, a fund manager at Piper Serica Advisors. “Stocks have gained for six straight sessions and investors may want to reap gains ahead of a major policy event.” Reliance Industries fell 1.3%, while State Bank of India and Axis Bank led declines among lenders. Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to raise rates for a third consecutive time on Friday but remain divided on the level of the hike aimed at fighting inflation and supporting a weakening currency. Of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 17 rose and 13 fell. Both of India’s equity benchmarks had gained least 5.5% in previous six sessions driven by $1.7 billion of net purchases by foreigners since the end of June amid signs that inflationary pressures are cooling. Eight of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined on Thursday. A measure of telecom stocks was the worst performer among the sectoral measures.
In FX, the dollar consolidated as traders awaited US payrolls data due later in the day for clues on the pace of future Federal Reserve rate hikes. Sterling tumbled after the BOE delivered its biggest rate hike in 27 years, pushing rates up by 50bps, however it also warned of a devastating stagflation, hiking its inflation forecast to 13.3% in October even as it predicted a harrowing 5-quarter long recession.
In rates, Treasuries were moderately cheaper across the curve – which continues to invert deeply with the 2s10s now -37bps, the biggest yield curve inversion since 2000 as traders increased wagers on Federal Reserve rate hikes ahead of Friday’s US jobs data – as US stock futures added to Wednesday’s gains. The US 10-year yield dropping to 2.70% as Federal Reserve officials indicated they were resolute on aggressive hikes to cool inflation, dashing market hopes they were ready to embark on a shallower rate path. Treasuries offered little initial reaction to Bank of England decision to hike rates 50bp in an 8-1 vote while warning of a 5 quarter-long recession. Front-end yields cheaper by ~2bp on the day, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by ~1.5bp and ~0.5bp; 10-year yields around 2.71% trade cheaper by 5bp vs bunds. European long-end bonds nudged higher. In the UK, focus is on the Bank of England’s rate decision, with a majority of economists anticipating a 50-basis-point hike.
In commodities, oil drifted 0.2% lower to trade at the $90 level as investors weighed weaker US gasoline demand and rising inventories against a token supply increase from OPEC+. Spot gold rises roughly $20 to trade near $1,787/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME lead falls 1.1% while LME zinc gains 1.2%.
Bitcoin slips back below the USD 23k mark but remains in relative proximity to the level in a tight range.
Looking to the day ahead now and we have US June trade balance and Initial Jobless Claims, Germany June factory orders, July construction PMI, UK July new car registrations, construction PMI, Canada June building permits and international merchandise trade. Earnings will include Alibaba, Eli Lilly, Toyota, ICE, ConocoPhillips, Bayer, Glencore, Cigna, Rolls-Royce, adidas, Cheniere, DBS, Apollo, Lyft, Expedia, Deutsche Lufthansa, Warner Bros Discovery, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, DoorDash, Atlassian, Amgen, Block, EOG, Kellogg and AMC.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,153.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 439.32
- MXAP up 0.4% to 159.68
- MXAPJ up 0.6% to 521.36
- Nikkei up 0.7% to 27,932.20
- Topix little changed at 1,930.73
- Hang Seng Index up 2.1% to 20,174.04
- Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,189.04
- Sensex down 0.6% to 57,993.23
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,974.93
- Kospi up 0.5% to 2,473.11
- German 10Y yield little changed at 0.89%
- Euro up 0.1% to $1.0178
- Brent Futures little changed at $96.78/bbl
- Brent Futures little changed at $96.75/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,773.19
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.13% to 106.37
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- China’s military fired missiles into the sea on Thursday in live-fire military exercises around the island in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit, even as Taipei played down the impact on flights and shipping.
- The Bank of England on Thursday is expected to push through the biggest interest-rate increase in 27 years despite growing risks of a recession.
- European stocks edged higher on Thursday as investors continued to weigh the path of corporate earnings, while attention turned to the Bank of England’s policy decision later in the day.
- The dollar is close to a 20-year high, despite talk of its inevitable demise. While reluctant to add another article that ends up in traders’ trash cans, current pricing is extreme.
- Asia’s emerging economies are drawing on large foreign exchange reserves to help prop up their currencies rather than going all-out with interest-rate hikes.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were firmer as the positive momentum rolled over from global peers. ASX 200 was kept afloat by tech after similar outperformance of the sector stateside. Nikkei 225 briefly reclaimed the 28k level amid recent JPY weakness and as the earnings deluge continued. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the heightened risk appetite with firm gains in tech including Alibaba ahead of its earnings and with Hong Kong set to provide HKD 2k in consumption vouchers from Sunday.
Top Asian News
- China’s Yiwu city will conduct mass testing and China’s Sanya city is on lockdown amid a COVID flare-up, according to state media.
- China Cancels Japan Meeting Over G-7 Criticism of Taiwan Drills
- SoftBank Raises $22 Billion Through Alibaba Derivatives: FT
- China State-Backed Builder’s Dollar Bonds Slump as Worries Mount
- Tiger Global Fund Halves Stake in India Food Platform Zomato
- Additional Share Sales Break Asia’s Usual Summer Lull: ECM Watch
- Li Ka-shing’s CK to Sell AMTD Stake After Unit Soars 14,000%
European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, with the general tone constructive though the FTSE 100 lags pre-BoE amid GBP strength. Stateside, US futures have lifted from initial rangebound action, ES +0.3%, with specific newsflow limited pre-data/Fed speak
Top European News
- Next Raises Profit Outlook as Hot Spell Spurs Fashion Buying
- French Tech Startup Back Market Said to Start Early IPO Prep
- Goldman, Bernstein Strategists Say Stocks Rally Can Fizzle Out
- European Retailers Outperform, Fueled by Zalando Relief Rally
- Czech Finance Minister Attending Central Bank’s Rate Meeting
- Credit Agricole’s Investment Bank Drives Earnings Beat
FX
- DXY remains subdued in early European trade following a relatively contained APAC session; fresh session lows are seen heading into the US entrance.
- GBP/USD and EUR/USD are currently buoyed, but seemingly more as a function of the Dollar with the former gearing up for the BoE.
- A mixed session thus far for the non-US Dollars, with the Antipodeans leading the charge whilst the Loonie remained suppressed by crude prices.
- JPY resides as the current G10 laggard with recent Fed rhetoric fuelling a retracement of last week’s USD/JPY downside.
Fixed Income
- Core consolidation after recent rampant upward move, knife-edge BoE looms; Bund Sep’22 towards mid-point of a +100 tick range.
- USTs are following suit with the yield curve flattening modestly but generally quite contained ahead of Mester (2022 voter, Hawk) who has provided commentary recently.
- Pre-BoE Gilts are supported, but in narrower parameters than EGB peers, as participants look for clarity on the 25/50bp debate as pricing implies a 90% chance of 50bp and circa. 150bp total by end-2022.
Commodities
- Crude consolidates and moves with broader sentiment post-OPEC & pre-JCPOA.
- Currently, benchmarks are firmer by circa. USD 1.00bbl and towards the top-end of relatively/comparably narrow ranges.
- Saudi Arabia OSPs (Sep) vs Oman/Dubai average: Arab Light to Asia at USD +9.80/bbl (exp. 9.80-11.10/bbl), according to Reuters sources.
- Spot gold is bid and benefitting from a USD pullback that has sent the yellow-metal above the 50-DMA at best; base metals somewhat mixed.
US Event Calendar
- 07:30: July Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 58.8%
- 08:30: June Trade Balance, est. -$80b, prior -$85.5b
- 08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 260,000, prior 256,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.38m, prior 1.36m
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
One thing we can say for sure is that August hasn’t been dull so far and we’ve only had three days. This is all before the biggest BoE hike for 27 years (50bps) likely today, and then US payrolls tomorrow.
Indeed, there have been some remarkable ranges in treasuries so far in the three days of August. In just over 24 hours from mid-afternoon London time on Tuesday, 2yr US yields moved from 2.83% to 3.18%, 5yrs from 2.58% to 2.96% and 10yrs from 2.52% to 2.83%. These all marked the high points as the three closed at 3.07% (+1.4bps on the day), 2.83% (-2.4bps) and 2.71% (-4.5bps) respectively, 11bps to 13bps off their intra-day highs immediately after a strong US services ISM yesterday. This led to a big curve flattening as 2s10s closed c.6bps lower at -36bps. This morning in Asia, treasury yields are pretty much unchanged.
If that wasn’t enough, the Nasdaq 100 (+2.73%) surged to finish the day at a level last seen on May 4th leaving a strong S&P 500 (+1.59%) slightly behind. The narratives at the moment are struggling to be consistent though as equities have recently rallied on weaker growth that has been seen as helping to limit how far the Fed can hike. However yesterday equities rallied on stronger economic data regardless of the potential Fed impact.
Discretionary (+2.52%), IT (+2.69%) and communications stocks (+2.48%) were the major drivers of the S&P. The broad rally lifted 79% of benchmark’s members with energy (-2.97%) being the only sector to close in the red as oil plummeted. Speaking of which, although the OPEC+ agreed to increase its September output by 100k bpd, way below the July and August increases north of 600k, crude’s short-lived almost +3% gain unwound fairly quickly, with both WTI (-3.87%) and Brent (-3.60%) weaker on lower US gasoline demand as consumers seem to be driving less. Oil is very slightly higher in Asia.
In terms of earnings, Moderna (+16%), PayPal (+9.25%) and CVS (+6.3%) were among top performers in the S&P 500 after a combination of upbeat results and perhaps more importantly buy back announcements. Another interesting snippet from this earnings season came when Bloomberg reported that Meta is looking for a potential debut in bond markets. News of debt sales by Apple and Intel already came through earlier this week as well, supporting narratives of resilience in corporate debt markets.
Dissecting the data, just before the ISM services was released, we got a slight upward revision for the US services PMI (47.3 vs 47.0) but the real surprise was the ISM services index itself. The print showed an unexpected expansion from 55.3 in June to 56.7 last month, the highest since April, while the median Bloomberg estimate stood at 53.5. The employment index also improved to 49.1 from 47.4 and business activity and new orders indicators were the highest since January, while prices paid plunged from 80.1 to 72.3. Another strong reading came from June factory orders that increased +2.0% (vs +1.2% expected), up from May’s revised reading of +1.8% (from +1.6% previously).
This data dovetailed with comments from a list of Fed speakers over the last 24 hours, including Bullard, Daly, Barkin and Kashkari, all saying that the central bank is not close to finishing its work and markets shouldn’t expect a quick reversal to cuts.
This all supports our view that the US isn’t in recession yet. As we’ve said many times before we think it’s almost inevitable it does go into one within say 12 months but that we still might need the lagged impact of an aggressive (but necessary) series of rate hikes first to get us there. The risks to this view in terms of an earlier recession would probably be due to a sudden self fulfilling loss of confidence as everyone talks about imminent recession risk, or if financial conditions dramatically collapse. To be fair the latter was very worrying by mid-June but we’ve seen a tremendous loosening since.
Over to Asia and the strong gains in US equities are echoing in Asia with all the key markets trading higher. As I type, the Hang Seng (+1.78%) is leading the way across the region helped by gains in Chinese technology companies with shares of Alibaba climbing around +5.0% ahead of its earnings results later today. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.54%), and the Kospi (+0.36%) are trading higher in early trade. Over in Mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) and the CSI (+0.40%) are both trading in the green.
Outside of Asia, stock futures in the US are pausing for breath with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.10%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.20%) moving slightly lower.
Early morning data showed that Australia’s trade balance swelled to a record high of A$17.67bn in June (v/s A$14.0bn expected) from A$15.97bn in May driven by strong prices of key exports from grains to metals and gold.
Elsewhere, although Pelosi left Taiwan yesterday without incident, remember that China will start 4 days of military drills today around the island. So be prepared for headlines to come through.
Back to yesterday and European shares rallied but missed the main part of the US climb with the STOXX 600 closing with a +0.51% advance for the day after a steady march higher throughout the session. It was an across-the-board rally led by IT (+2.78%), financials (+1.60%) and discretionary (+1.52%) stocks. The few sectors in the red – utilities (-0.94%), healthcare (-0.92%) and communications (-0.35%) – were left behind by a risk-on mood.
Speaking of European utilities, it is a sector that has faced challenges not only amid the Russian gas story but also the extreme heat in Europe. Our European economists cover implications of the drought-driven low water levels for the German economy here. As a reminder, it was an important topic back in 2018 but today’s situation with gas supplies reinforces its effect given coal plants’ reliance on waterways for supplies. Linked in, yesterday’s announcement by Uniper about potentially limiting output at a coal plant in Germany sent gas futures in New York up by almost +10%, with contracts holding on to a +7.71% gain by the close of US markets. Other companies depend on water traffic too and water-intensive industries are likely to get affected as well. Earlier this week EDF has warned about potential further nuclear power cuts as river water, used for plant cooling, becomes too warm. Expect this to be an increasingly pertinent and market-moving issue across industries.
Diving back into market movements, the bullish sentiment in European stocks was strong enough to overpower surging yields. In Germany the belly of the curve surged, with 5y yields (+7.6bps) racing ahead of both the front end (+6.9bps) and the 10y (+5.6bps) that was mainly upheld by higher breakevens (+6.1bps). While a similar story was seen in France (OATs +3.4bps), Italy stood out with an across the curve decline in yields. 2s10s still flattened as the 2y yield (-1.5ps) fell by less than the 10y (-4.1bps). We should note that US yields rallied 7-8bps after Europe closed.
Central banks and yields will be in focus today as well since today’s BoE’s meeting will likely be top of the list in terms of events for European markets and our UK economists expect the Bank to hike by +50bps (taking the Bank Rate to 1.75%). Their full preview is here. This hike would imply the largest single Bank Rate increase since 1995 and come amid the 9.4% CPI print for June, a 40-year high. They also updated their growth outlook for the country yesterday (link here) and now expect the economy to contract in Q4-22 and Q1-23 in a short and mild technical recession. Gilts behaved similar to other European bond markets yesterday, with the 2y yield (+7.1bps) rising by more than the 10y (+4.4bps) but both lagging the 5y (+9.0bps).
Staying with Europe and briefly returning to yesterday’s other data releases, Germany’s exports accelerated to +4.5% in June, way ahead of the +1.0% median estimate on Bloomberg’s and May’s revised +1.3% (from -0.5% previously). Imports came in softer than expected, however, slowing to just +0.2% (+1.3% expected). Elsewhere, Eurozone’s retail sales contracted -3.7% yoy in June, missing estimates of -1.7%. The PPI accelerated to a monthly gain of +1.1% in June relative to the prior +0.5% (revised from +0.7%).
To the day ahead now and we have US June trade balance, Germany June factory orders, July construction PMI, UK July new car registrations, construction PMI, Canada June building permits and international merchandise trade. Earnings will include Alibaba, Eli Lilly, Toyota, ICE, ConocoPhillips, Bayer, Glencore, Cigna, Rolls-Royce, adidas, Cheniere, DBS, Apollo, Lyft, Expedia, Deutsche Lufthansa, Warner Bros Discovery, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, DoorDash, Atlassian, Amgen, Block, EOG, Kellogg and AMC.
END
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK
Generally constructive risk tone with BoE ahead and EGBs/UST consolidating – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 06:47 AM
- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, with the general tone constructive though the FTSE 100 lags pre-BoE amid GBP strength.
- US futures have lifted from initial rangebound action, ES +0.3%, with specific newsflow limited pre-data/Fed speak.
- DXY subdued with peers generally bid though CAD is pressured amid crude consolidation while JPY is the G10 laggard thus far.
- Core consolidation after recent rampant upward move, knife-edge BoE looms; Bund Sep’22 towards mid-point of a +100 tick range.
- Currently, benchmarks are firmer by circa. USD 1.00bbl and towards the top-end of relatively/comparably narrow ranges; JCPOA in focus
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs, IJC, International Trade & Canadian Trade Balance, BoE Policy Announcement. Speeches from ECB’s Elderson & Fed’s Mester. Earnings from Alibaba, Conoco-Phillips, Amgen.
As of 11:15BST/06:15ET
For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.
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LOOKING AHEAD
- US Challenger Layoffs, IJC, International Trade & Canadian Trade Balance, BoE Policy Announcement. Speeches from ECB’s Elderson & Fed’s Mester. Earnings from Alibaba, Conoco-Phillips, Amgen.
- Click here for the Week Ahead preview
TAIWAN/PELOSI
- China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said the Taiwan issue is not a regional issue but is a China internal affairs issue, while it added that punishment of pro-Taiwan independence diehards and external forces is reasonable and lawful.
- Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said unidentified aircraft which were likely drones, flew above Kinmen Islands on Wednesday night, while the military fired flares to drive away the aircraft, according to Reuters.
- Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said troops will continue to reinforce alertness level and are carrying out daily training as usual, while the military will react appropriately to an enemy situation and safeguard national security and sovereignty, according to Reuters.
- ASEAN Foreign Ministers are concerned about international and regional volatility and are concerned volatility could lead to a miscalculation, serious confrontation, open conflicts, and unpredictable consequences among major powers, according to Reuters.
- US House Speaker Pelosi plans to visit an inter-Korean border area jointly controlled by the American-led UN Command and North Korea, according to a South Korean official cited by Reuters.
- China’s PLA has added an additional zone for its military exercise encircling Taiwan starting Thursday, exercises have been extended until Monday at 10:00, via dwnews’ Yang citing Taiwan’s port authority. Now seven zones around Taiwan.
- “The PLA organized aircraft carrier(s), joined by nuclear-powered submarine(s), for the first time, for the deterrence drills around Taiwan”, according to Global Times citing an expert.
- Chinese Foreign Affairs Representative says whether the PLA’s drills will become a new normal depends on the US & the secessionist forces in Taiwan, Global Times.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky is seeking direct talks with Chinese President Xi to help end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to SCMP.
- Belarusian special operations forces are conducting a combat readiness check on the border to Ukraine, reports the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cited by NEXTA
OTHER
- US Senate voted 95-1 to approve Finland and Sweden joining NATO, according to C-SPAN.
- Iran has started enriching uranium with two extra first-generation IR-1 centrifuge cascades to up to 5% purity at the underground Natanz plant, according to an IAEA report cited by Reuters.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, with the general tone constructive though the FTSE 100 lags pre-BoE amid GBP strength.
- Stateside, US futures have lifted from initial rangebound action, ES +0.3%, with specific newsflow limited pre-data/Fed speak.
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- DXY remains subdued in early European trade following a relatively contained APAC session; fresh session lows are seen heading into the US entrance.
- GBP/USD and EUR/USD are currently buoyed, but seemingly more as a function of the Dollar with the former gearing up for the BoE.
- A mixed session thus far for the non-US Dollars, with the Antipodeans leading the charge whilst the Loonie remained suppressed by crude prices.
- JPY resides as the current G10 laggard with recent Fed rhetoric fuelling a retracement of last week’s USD/JPY downside.
- Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- USD/JPY: 133.00 (1.41B), 134.80-85 (1.08B), 135.00-05 (2.14B)
- EUR/USD: 1.0225-30 (1.06B), 1.0295-1.0300 (1.31B), 1.0100 (1.22B), 1.0150 (2.40B), 1.0200-05 (1.46B), 1.0215 (622M)
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME
- Core consolidation after recent rampant upward move, knife-edge BoE looms; Bund Sep’22 towards mid-point of a +100 tick range.
- USTs are following suit with the yield curve flattening modestly but generally quite contained ahead of Mester (2022 voter, Hawk) who has provided commentary recently.
- Pre-BoE Gilts are supported, but in narrower parameters than EGB peers, as participants look for clarity on the 25/50bp debate as pricing implies a 90% chance of 50bp and circa. 150bp total by end-2022.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- Crude consolidates and moves with broader sentiment post-OPEC & pre-JCPOA.
- Currently, benchmarks are firmer by circa. USD 1.00bbl and towards the top-end of relatively/comparably narrow ranges.
- Saudi Arabia OSPs (Sep) vs Oman/Dubai average: Arab Light to Asia at USD +9.80/bbl (exp. 9.80-11.10/bbl), according to Reuters sources.
- Spot gold is bid and benefitting from a USD pullback that has sent the yellow-metal above the 50-DMA at best; base metals somewhat mixed.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Foreign Secretary Truss (PM candidate) argues that inflation has been caused by supply side shocks following COVID and Ukraine, as such wants to review the BoE’s mandate to ensure it matches peers in keeping inflation under control. (FT)
DATA RECAP
- EU S&P Global Construction PMI (Jul) 45.7 (Prev. 47.0)
- German S&P Global Construction PMI (Jul) 43.7 (Prev. 45.9)
- UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul) 48.9 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 52.6)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US CBO estimates that enacting the reconciliation bill would result in a net decrease in the deficit totalling USD 102bln over the 2022-31 period.
- Click here for the US Early Morning note.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin slips back below the USD 23k mark but remains in relative proximity to the level in a tight range.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were firmer as the positive momentum rolled over from global peers.
- ASX 200 was kept afloat by tech after similar outperformance of the sector stateside.
- Nikkei 225 briefly reclaimed the 28k level amid recent JPY weakness and as the earnings deluge continued.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the heightened risk appetite with firm gains in tech including Alibaba ahead of its earnings and with Hong Kong set to provide HKD 2k in consumption vouchers from Sunday.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- China’s Yiwu city will conduct mass testing and China’s Sanya city is on lockdown amid a COVID flare-up, according to state media.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Jun) 17.7B vs Exp. 14.0B (Prev. 16.0B)
- Australian Goods/Services Exports (Jun) 5% (Prev. 9%); Imports (Jun) 1% (Prev. 6%)
i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 26.87 PTS OR 0.80% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 406.85 OR 0.69% /The Nikkei closed UP 190.30 OR % 0.69. //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.06% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7536//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7610// /Oil DOWN TO 91.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 96.74// SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 26.37 PTS OR 0.80% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 406.85 OR 2.06% /The Nikkei closed UP 190.30 OR % 0.69. //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.06% / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
3c CHINA
CHINA
Even after Pelosi departs, the rhetoric and (bellicose actions by China) between Mainland China and Taiwan continues
(zerohedge)
As Taiwan Warns Chinese “Maritime & Aerial Blockade” Ensuing, Pelosi Says Real Issue Is ‘I’m A Woman’
WEDNESDAY, AUG 03, 2022 – 03:45 PM
Update(1545ET): During Nancy Pelosi’s brief visit to the self-ruled island of Taiwan, China’s government issued an alert telling commercial airlines to avoid airspace near Taiwan as it kicked off live military drills that essentially choked off maritime areas surrounding the island – drills coming even within 12 nautical miles of the Taiwan coast (conventionally considered “terrotorial waters”). State-run Xinhua also reported that China is conducing joint Navy, Air Force and rocket drills just off Taiwan. And more ominously Global Times said the PLA is preparing to send rockets over the island of Taiwan. As also Axios recapped:
- The alert describing six areas in the region as “danger zones” notifies airlines of flight restrictions due to the military exercises from Thursday at 12 noon until 12 noon Sunday Hong Kong time, per Bloomberg, as officials in Japan also expressed alarm at Beijing’s plans.
- China’s government also moved to block imports of citrus fruits and frozen mackerel from Taiwan in retaliation for Pelosi’s trip, AP reports.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry described the latest PLA actions as essentially a “maritime and aerial blockade.” Meanwhile, Fox News’ Lucas Tomlinson observes that “48 Chinese military aircraft, mostly fighter jets, have now buzzed Taiwan over the past two days.” A little less than half of these were reported by Taiwan’s defense ministry as having crossed the “median line” – which it should be recalled Chinese state mouthpiece Global Times said has now ceased to exist.
You will find more infographics at Statista
To be expected, Taiwan’s defense ministry charged Biejing with “violating international law and Taiwan’s sovereignty” – given China’s ongoing live-fire military exercises that will occur in six different areas around Taiwan, some overlapping with Taiwan’s claimed territorial waters. And the mainstay of the drills haven’t even yet begun – given the PLA Eastern Theater identified a Thursday “start” date.
Needless to say all of this is incredibly dangerous when considering the potential for an ‘inadvertent’ incident between either the PLA and Taiwan forces, or between China and the US Navy, considering two days ago the USS Reagan strike group entered regional waters…
Now that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is safely in Seoul, South Korea – where neither President Yoon Suk-yeol nor the country’s foreign minister will meet with her – as the former is conveniently on “vacation” and the latter is in nearby Cambodia – all that she’s offered thus far as an “explanation” for soaring regional tensions, and with Taiwan now finding itself in the direct crosshairs of a nuclear-armed superpower is that people are angry that she went to Taiwan because she’s a woman.
Yes, she actually said on Wednesday morning while standing alongside Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen: “They didn’t say anything when the men came.”
What else can be said?… she gets to play the woke victim (but wait: “what is a woman?”), while the Taiwanese people practice emergency bunker drills as they face down the possibility of serious Chinese military aggression.
* * *
Update(9:57ET): Less than a half-day after Nancy Pelosi’s departure from Taiwan on a US Air Force plane, a large group of 27 Chinese PLA planes breached Taiwan’s air defense identification zone Wednesday, crucially with at least 22 of the aircraft reported as having crossed the Taiwan Strait “median line”.
A map posted to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense showed the brief crossovers by the PLA jets. In response, the ministry said it issued radio warnings and readied air defense missile systems to monitor the activities. Taiwan previously said it won’t hesitated to deploy its armed forces to thwart “enemy threats”. Already as Pelosi’s plane was inbound yesterday from Malaysia Chinese planes and ships had buzzed the median line, which demarcates what the self-ruled island deems its own territorial waters.
“27 PLA aircraft (J-11*6, J-16*5 and SU-30*16) entered the surrounding area of R.O.C. on August 3, 2022,” Taiwan’s military wrote in official social media posts. Earlier in the day state-run English language PRC mouthpiece Global Times declared that Beijing now views the median line has having ceased to exist.
“The exercises are unprecedented as the PLA conventional missiles are expected to fly over the island of Taiwan for the first time, the PLA forces will enter area within 12 nautical miles of the island and that the so-called median line will cease to exist,” the publication wrote while detailing the next phase of PLA drills to surround the island.
PLA drills encircling Taiwan (source: Bloomberg Graphics):
Taiwan’s military has since confirmed breaches of its territorial waters and airspace above “by force” as the PLA continues its threatening tactics…
To review of the latest via Chinese media outlet Global Times:
- The PLA drills around Taiwan island are unprecedented
- conventional missiles are expected to fly over the island for the 1st time
- PLA forces will enter area within 12 nautical miles to the island
- “median line” ceases to exist
Taiwan has in the last hours issued its own video depicting the military on a high state of alert…
* * *
“Today the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said during her short Wednesday morning meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen after flying into Taipei the night prior on an Air Force jet. “America’s determination to preserve democracy, here in Taiwan and around the world, remains ironclad.”
She has already departed on Wednesday, amid ongoing Chinese PLA military drills surrounding the self-ruled island on many sides, which are the result of her visit which Beijing has vehemently condemned, with the foreign ministry warning overnight the US will “pay the price”.
Taiwan’s Tsai, for her part while meeting with Pelosi said, “Facing deliberately heightened military threats, Taiwan will not back down, we will firmly uphold our nation’s sovereignty and continue to hold the line of defense for democracy.”
Tsai bestowed on Pelosi the democratic-island’s highest civilian award, called the Order of Propitious Clouds with Special Grand Cordon during a live broadcast from the presidential palace.
The Taiwanese president described that it “represented their [Taiwan’s] gratitude to Pelosi and the wish to continue progressing US-Taiwan relations through more cooperation.” Pelosi later posted on Twitter that it was a “symbol of America’s strong and enduring friendship.”
China’s National Defense Ministry in its latest said, “Such an act equals to sealing off Taiwan by air and sea, such an act covers our country’s territory and territorial waters, and severely violates our country’s territorial sovereignty,” according to the words by Capt. Jian-chang Yu.
The part of the PLA drill slated for Thursday will include ‘live fire’ exercises within 12 nautical miles (22 kilometers of Taiwan’s shore. The Hill notes it will be “the largest aimed at Taiwan since 1995, when China fired missiles in a large-scale exercise to show its displeasure at a visit by then-Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui to the U.S.”
Taiwan has already charged China with breaching its territorial waters with the drills that kicked off immediately upon Pelosi landing in Taipei the night before.
Meanwhile, more of China’s outrage was on display throughout Wednesday, with Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, previewing to a scheduled media briefing more repercussions and punishment to come.
“As for the specific countermeasures, what I can tell you is that they’ll include everything that should be included,”Hua said. “The measures in question will be firm, vigorous and effective, and the U.S. side and Taiwan independence forces will continue feeling them.”
A statement in state-run Global Times has declared the “median line” separating the Taiwan Strait will not longer be recognized.
“Joint military exercises around the island of Taiwan by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continued Wednesday with a joint blockade, sea assault and land and air combat trainings, involving the use of advanced weapons including J-20 stealth fighter jets and DF-17 hypersonic missiles after the drills started on Tuesday evening, when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed on the island which seriously violates China’s sovereignty,” the provocative statement says.
“The exercises are unprecedented as the PLA conventional missiles are expected to fly over the island of Taiwan for the first time, the PLA forces will enter area within 12 nautical miles of the island and that the so-called median line will cease to exist, experts said, noting that by surrounding Taiwan entirely, the PLA are completely blockading the island demonstrating the Chinese mainland’s absolute control over the Taiwan question,” the publication adds.
* * *
A summary of overnight activity and Pelosi’s post-trip fallout via Newsquawk:
- US House Speaker Pelosi has concluded her Taiwan visit, has now departed on SPAR19
- US House Speaker Pelosi said there is bilateral support for Taiwan in the US and that her visit is a reminder of the bedrock promise America to always stand with Taiwan, while she added that the delegation came to Taiwan to make it unequivocally clear that they will not abandon Taiwan. Pelosi also said they explored deepening trade ties with Taiwan and a trade agreement may be imminent, according to Bloomberg and Reuters.
- Taiwan President Tsai told Pelosi she is one of Taiwan’s most devoted friends and the visit shows firm US support for Taiwan, while she thanked Pelosi for her unwavering support of Taiwan on the international stage. President Tsai also said Taiwan will not back down in facing deliberately heightened military threats and Taiwan will do whatever it takes to strengthen its self-defence.
- White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications Kirby said the US is monitoring Pelosi’s travel and has taken measures to ensure her safety, while he added that China has positioned itself to take further steps and the White House expects China to react beyond Pelosi’s trip including by scheduling live fire exercises, while other steps by China could include economic coercion, according to Reuters.
- Taiwan Defence Ministry said Chinese drills have invaded Taiwan’s territorial space and they will counter any move that violates Taiwan’s territorial sovereignty, while it added that Chinese drills violate UN rules and amount to a blockade of Taiwan’s air and sea space, according to Reuters.
- China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said it will take disciplinary actions against two Taiwan foundations which will be banned from financially cooperating with mainland firms and individuals. China also announced a stoppage of certain fruit and fish imports from Taiwan and halted exports of natural sands to Taiwan which is a key component used in chip-making, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, China will adopt criminal penalties regarding Taiwan separatists and vowed criminal punishments for Taiwan-independence diehards, according to Xinhua.
- China’s Vice Foreign Minister Xie lodged representations regarding Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, according to Xinhua.
- Taiwan is negotiating alternative aviation routes with Japan and the Philippines, according to Taiwanese press.
- END
END
CHINA/COVID
China is nuts!! they just did a lockdown of Wuhan. They certainly did not get the science right
QTR Fringe Finance
Don’t Look Now, But China Just Locked Down A Million Wuhan Residents Again
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 10:43 AM
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
Back in April I wrote about the state of Shanghai’s latest round of lockdowns, asking whether or not something fucky was afoot (more than usual) across the pond in China. Since then, I had just assumed that things were returning back to normal and that the Winter’s lockdowns were an aberration.
But it isn’t looking that way. In fact, China’s latest actions only do more to raise my “fringe” suspicions.
As recent as this week, parts of Wuhan (and its 1 million residents) are being forced to lock down yet again because – wait for it – four cases of asymptomatic Covid were found amongst hundreds of thousands of screenings that the province provides daily.
China has been continuing its “Covid Zero” response strategy, which is makes so little sense and is so inefficient, vain, costly and fruitless that I can’t believe it’s not a product of Democrats here in the U.S.
The gist of the policy has been described as a “control and maximum suppression” strategy that uses “contact tracing, mass testing, border quarantine, lockdowns, and mitigation software” – also known as the George Orwell Special – to try and track and prevent cases.
While this might be doable for small islands or villages off the beaten path of a couple thousands people, the idea that it is going to be implemented to stop a virus no one can see, with success, for a country of 1.4 billion people, is ludicrous.
“The successful containment effort builds confidence in China, based on experience and knowledge gained, that future waves of COVID-19 can be stopped, if not prevented. Case identification and management, coupled with identification and quarantine of close contacts, is a strategy that works,” the Chinese CDC argued, advocating for their intense lockdowns, back in 2020.
According to the Center for Strategic & International Studies, the reason for China choosing to shut down the way they have is that “so much of China’s population is immunologically naïve that the losses might exceed a million deaths if China reopens before proper protective measures have been introduced.”
Color me not surprised that China has chosen the most intense possible way to lock down its residents and exercise control of them – but with omicron now making its way through the country, it seems like a futile effort. When does it end? Will China be subject to these “snap” lockdowns forever? I’m sure their government wouldn’t mind that…
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And while this reasoning for China’s lockdowns may prove correct, I can’t help but look at the other side of the coin, as I did back in April. We know that the virus is going to eventually become endemic and we know that China’s lockdowns are extremely costly for the global economy.
We also know that China is currently in a position where putting pressure on the global economy may not be the worst idea in the world for them – after all, they are trying to institute their own reserve currency with other BRIC nations, and one way to force pain onto the West is to disrupt the supply of everyday goods.
Namely, I was worried that China’s absolutely insane reaction to this virus was for one of two possible “fringe” reasons:
- They knew something about the virus that the rest of the world didn’t
- They were purposely trying to cauterize their supply chain for reasons that had nothing to do with Covid
While the question of on-purpose lockdowns for supply chain reasons sounds like a conspiracy theory by itself, when taken in context with the facts that:
- China is creating its own global reserve currency
- China has spent a decade de-dollarizing with Russia
- China appears ready to re-take Taiwan
- China may be stockpiling far more gold than people think
- China continues spying on the U.S.
…it all of a sudden doesn’t seem like it would be out of the canon of their potential plans to usurp the U.S. as a global super power.
And lockdowns do have a profound effect on the rest of the world’s ability to get products. Here’s the effect on shipping from the beginning of this year:
This, in turn, lead to additional backlogs at ports and higher shipping costs, as Bloomberg points out:
And the extremely interesting kicker is that lead times are only crushed for the U.S., as we desperately wait for China’s imports to go about our daily lives. In China, you can see that the impact on manufacturing delivery times has hardly budged after the initial set of Covid lockdowns:
In layman’s terms, this means that if they wanted to, and if they were locking down for reasons other than Covid, China could, in theory, still provide its own people with what it needs domestically, while making other countries around the world suffer.
I can’t help but continue to keep this angle in mind as headlines about new lockdowns in China make their way across my desk.
And while my contentions may be proven to be conspiracy theory (hey, we exist on the Fringe for a reason), you can’t say that they aren’t at least worth considering and watching closely.
There is no doubt to me that we are entering into a new era with China and Russia – one that feels like it could be the beginning of a new Cold War, wherein the West and BRIC nations diverge further from each other to create a new, bifurcated global economy and hierarchy.
In fact, I wrote months ago that the U.S. should take note of this, acknowledge it, make slight concessions and try to take action to create world peace.
If you were China, why wouldn’t you take this time to try and expand your empire? The U.S. is mired in recession, the President has one of the lowest approval ratings in history, economically the Central Bank has been put into a crunch, division amidst the country is at highs and economic “sanctions” we just tried to put on Russia did little, if anything, to damage the ruble.
It’s prime time for China to take the boldest of actions, in my opinion – which is why I don’t have any issue carefully scrutinizing their lockdowns through my conspiratorial lens.
I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.
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CHINA/TAIWAN
Ballistic missiles soar over Taiwan with hundred of PLA fighters breach their airspace. The 5 day drill commences
(zerohedge)
Ballistic Missiles Soar Over Taiwan, “Hundreds” Of PLA Fighters Breach Airspace, As 5-Day Drills Commence
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 08:44 AM
China has kicked off its latest round of war drills Thursday aimed at encircling and pressuring Taiwan in the wake of this week’s House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visit to the self-ruled island, the day after she departed and continued on her Asia tour to South Korea.
According to China’s People’s Daily, this has included PLA command dispatching “hundreds” of fighter jets to enter airspace off the northern, southwestern and southeastern airspaces of the island, at a moment Taiwan’s defense forces are on a heightened state of alert. On Wednesday some half a dozen jets were reported as having breached the ‘median line’ separating the Taiwan Strait. Beijing is promising in essence this is only the beginning.
And more alarming, China launched a series of ballistic missiles into waters off Taiwan, with some having flown over the island. “Taiwan has confirmed that mainland China launched 11 Dongfeng series missiles into waters north, south and east of the island on Thursday afternoon, a day after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi left Taipei,” South China Morning Post reports.
“The island’s defence ministry said the 11 DF series missiles were fired between 1.56pm and 4pm. It is the first time mainland missiles have flown over the island.”
Taipei’s defense ministry immediately condemned the severe provocation: “The defence ministry condemned the irrational actions to undermine regional peace,” a statement said. Taiwan further called on Beijing to be “self-restrained”.
Taiwanese media outlets are reporting of the unprecedented missile flyover of the island:
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command Spokesman Shi Yi that afternoon announced that the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command Rocket Force launched a “multi-regional and multi-model exercise” in the waters off the coast of eastern Taiwan, according to China’s state-run TV broadcaster CCTV. Shi claimed that the guided missiles all “hit their targets accurately.”
Already there has been a ‘close call’ incident between the two militaries:
Earlier, it [Taiwan’s military] revealed suspected Chinese drones had flown above the Kinmen Islands, Taiwanese territory off China’s southeastern coast, and it had fired flares to drive them away.
Major General Chang Zone-sung of the military’s Kinmen Defense Command told the Reuters news agency that the Chinese drones came in a pair and flew into the Kinmen area twice on Wednesday night, at about 9pm (13:00 GMT) and 10pm (14:00 GMT).
Warning flared were then fired: “We immediately fired flares to issue warnings and to drive them away. After that, they turned around. They came into our restricted area and that’s why we dispersed them,” the Taiwanese general said.
While China had quickly started snap drills as Pelosi’s Air Force plane – reportedly with US fighter jet escort – landed in Taipei earlier this week, Thursday marks the start of more expansive live-fire drills around the whole island, slated to last five days.
The next five days will include live-fire drills and missile tests surrounding the island in these reported locations, as detailed in Chinese state media publications…
Meanwhile, China is furious over a prior day Group of Seven (G7) statement condemning its military drills. The G7 warned Beijing not to use Pelosi’s visit as “pretext for aggressive military activity in the Taiwan Strait”.
In protest, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has within the last hours canceled what was to be a face-to-face summit with his Japanese counterpart. At the same time increased cyberattacks are being reported against Taiwan government websites in local media.
CHINA/TAIWAN
Reality of war .. china is going to take Taiwan
Inbox
| Robert Hryniak | 8:49 AM (1 minute ago) |  | |
| to |
We are naive to think America is ready. This will be a another Pearl Harbor moment that can become a near death moment as nukes can easily fly.
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/
ECB
The ECB as per their new program is buying a lot of Italian and Spanish bonds and selling lots of German bonds to keep the spread between these nations low.
(zerohedge)
The ECB “Bought Lots Of Italian Gov’t Bonds And Sold Lots Of German Bunds” To Reverse Spread Blowout
WEDNESDAY, AUG 03, 2022 – 04:15 AM
It appears that while the ECB was busy coming up with its latest alphabet soup acronym – the Transmission Protection Instrument or TPI – meant to prevent an Italian bond implosion similar to 2011, the central bank was busy doing everything in its power to prevent “lo spread” from exploding.
In the first data release since the ECB activated PEPP reinvestment flexibility, we find a heavy skew in country allocation, away from core countries like Germany and towards the periphery, especially Italy and Spain, over the month of July 2022.
This clear relative-value market “nudging” by the central bank, meant to make German bonds appears weaker and Italian bonds stronger, was described by the IIF’s Robin Brooks as follows:
The ECB bought lots of Italian gov’t bonds in June & July and sold lots of German Bunds. This is the ECB steering proceeds from maturing government bonds in core countries like Germany and the Netherlands to benefit Italy.
As the former Goldman FX trader correctly concludes, “Lo Spread” would be a lot wider without this going on.“
While one can debate the semantics of what exactly the ECB is doing with PEPP maturity proceeds, the clear intention is to narrow the spread even if, as Goldman notes, “stability in the maturity of purchases suggests the ECB does not intend to lean against a repricing at a particular point of the yield curve.” Right: not a particular point of the curve – the entire curve.
Here are some more point on this latest unexpected attempt by the central bank to manipulate market sentiment, courtesy of Goldman’s Simon Freycenet:
1. The bi-monthly breakdown of PEPP holdings for the months of June and July 2022 represents the first data release since the ECB activated PEPP reinvestment flexibility as a first line of defence against fragmentation, as of July 1st.
2. The country allocation of net purchases shows a heavy skew in allocation, away from core countries and towards the periphery, for an aggregate stability in holdings (Exhibit 1). Indeed, though the ECB does not provide a country breakdown of redemptions, we estimate that about 75% of securities maturing in July were issued by Germany or the Netherlands (Exhibit 2).
In contrast, the data release shows that out of the EUR18bn-worth of securities maturing, about EUR10bn and EUR6bn were allocated to Italy and Spain respectively. PEPP holdings of semi-core securities are stable, suggesting the ECB has prioritized a reduction in holdings in core markets (where the free-float of debt is low, as we showed here).
3. The allocation of PEPP holdings across asset classes is stable, however (Exhibit 3), with holdings of private assets unchanged.
4. The weighted average maturity (WAM) of PEPP holdings is largely unchanged since March 2022 (Exhibit 4). This suggests to us that the ECB continues to purchase fairly evenly across the curve, and does not intend to lean against a repricing at shorter maturities in particular (which is typically seen as indicative of market stress).
5. Today’s data release, with reinvestments of a similar magnitude to our estimated redemptions for the month of July, indicates the ECB is not pulling forward future reinvestments. Rather, in line with reports, the ECB seems to be making country allocation choices as securities gradually mature.
* * *
Bottom line, for now it’s a non-issue as the sharp leak wider in “lo spread” has been contained (now that the market has instead convinced itself that the coming European recession will end the ECB’s rate tightening well in advance of schedule) but once the spread between Germany and Italy explodes again, probably around the time of the next elections in September, don’t be surprised if a whole lot of German are rightfully angry at why their borrowing costs are being manipulated higher by the “impartial” central bank, just so Italy doesn’t crash and burn yet again.
end
GERMANY
Rhine river water levels are now near record lows. The river at Kalb on Saturday would be within 7 cms from being entirely impassable by barge
(zerohedge)
German Barge Traffic Slumps As Rhine Water Levels Near Record Lows
WEDNESDAY, AUG 03, 2022 – 08:42 AM
Water levels on the Rhine River have fallen so low that barges hauling energy products have encountered parts of Europe’s most crucial waterway impassible.
The river at Kaub, Germany, is around 23.6 inches (60 centimeters) on Wednesday and is expected to drop to 18.5 inches (47 centimeters) by Saturday, according to the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. That would take it within 2.5 inches (7 centimeters) from being entirely impassable by barge.
“Fewer and fewer barges can pass through Kaub,” Riverlake, a vessel broker, said, referring to vessels with oil product cargos.
An impassible river at Kaub could exacerbate Germany’s worst energy-supply crunch in decades as Russia reduces natural gas flows via Nord Stream 1 to just 20% capacity.
It would paralyze the movement of energy products to chemicals and cripple Europe’s largest manufacturing hub, which is already sliding into recession.
“Low water levels already restrict coal shipments because fewer ships are available, and the ones that are ready to use carry less cargo,” energy supplier EnBW AG said in a statement.
“Shipment costs for coal are therefore increasing, which in turn inflates the costs of operating coal plants.”
In response to recent sliding water levels, Riverlake recently said barges hauling goods between Upper Rhine and Rotterdam had reduced weight to about a third of capacity to improve the draft of vessels. Shrinking shipping capacity had sent barge costs soaring near record highs, last seen in 2018 when the waterway was shuttered due to low levels.
The risk here is the trade of huge quantities of commodities that would otherwise be used to stave off an economic crisis become logjammed on the Rhine as low water levels make certain parts impassible.
END
GERMANY/UNIPER
Germany’s Uniper warns of possible irregular operations at a major power plant due to the Rhine river drying up
(zerohedge)
Germany’s Uniper Warns Of Possible “Irregular Operation” At Major Power Plant As Rhine River Runs Dry
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 07:20 AM
Germany’s Uniper SE, the country’s largest utility (recently bailed out by state-owned lender KfW), warned Thursday that plunging water levels on the Rhine River have reduced barge shipments of coal to a key power plant, exacerbating an energy crunch as power prices soar to record highs, reported Bloomberg.
The river at Kaub, Germany, is around 21.6 inches (55 centimeters) on Thursday and is expected to drop to 18.5 inches (47 centimeters) by Saturday, according to the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. Currently, Europe’s most crucial waterway is 5.9 inches (15 centimeters) from being impassible, the threshold where barge traffic is 15.7 inches (40 centimeters).
Uniper said the low water levels could force “irregular operation” at its 510-megawatt Staudinger-5 coal-fired power plant through the first half of September because fewer and fewer barges have been able to deliver coal as stockpiles dwindle. Rhine water levels below 40 centimeters at Kaub would halt shipments via inland waterways to the power plant, forcing shipments by land.
On Wednesday, Riverlake, a vessel broker, said, “fewer and fewer barges can pass through Kaub.”
Uniper’s warning about low water levels impacting operations at a coal-fired power plant is more evidence Rhine troubles are exacerbating Germany’s worst energy-supply crunch in decades as Russia reduces natural gas flows via Nord Stream 1 to just 20% capacity.
Meanwhile, German power for next year soared to a record intraday high of 410.57 euros per megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange on Thursday on the prospects of a worsening energy crisis.
Besides Uniper, here’s what other German companies are saying about low water levels on the Rhine and how they seek alternatives for transporting goods (list courtesy of Bloomberg):
BASF, chemicals
- Company is using rail more for goods
- Uses Rhine to transport 4.5 million tons of raw materials and products annually to and from its main site at Ludwigshafen
- Already operates a vessel that can carry up to 200 tons when the so-called Pegel water measure — which is used to calculate draft — is as low as 30 centimeters
- Two other barges that can operate at very low water levels are on order
- Has already expanded cooling plants which compensate for the lower volume of water that can be taken from the Rhine in dry periods
EnBW, utility
- The cost of shipping coal is increasing and that is pushing up its operating costs
- Company has built up coal inventories
- Its plants on the Rhine and also the river Neckar both have rail connections
RheinEnergie, utility
- Has always used rail for its Cologne-Merkenich lignite plant
VTG, railcar operator
- War in Ukraine has pushed up demand for coal transportation, as industries work to cut natural gas consumption
- Already operating at full capacity, partly due to staff shortages
Hoyer, truck operator
- Operating at full capacity
- Notes lack of truck drivers
Evonik, chemicals
- Company has already chartered additional ships and trucks
- Currently there are no significant constraints to its supply chains
- Company says it is better prepared than in 2018
Lanxess, chemicals
- Low water levels aren’t currently affecting logistics
- If Rhine water level drops further, company can switch to rail and road transportation
- end
end
GERMANY/AUSTRIA//OMV
German Oil refiner OMV states that there is a run on diesel and heating oil and thus halts all deliveries. The lack of supplies coming up the Rhine River is not helping the situation
(zerohedge)
German Oil Refiner Observes “Run” On Diesel & Heating Oil, Halts Deliveries
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 11:41 AM
The latest sign Europe’s energy problems are worsening is that Austrian oil and gas firm OMV AG halted crude product deliveries from storage facilities in Germany amid a “run” on supplies, Bloomberg reported.
OMV Germany said two storage facilities in the southern part of the country “are observing a current run on heating oil and … this is possibly due to crisis-driven market shortages and thus excessive speculation and stockpiling.”
“In order to secure supplies in the short and medium term, loading will now be temporarily suspended until the Burghausen refinery has resumed production,” OMV said in an emailed response, adding Burghausen and Feldkirchen’s storage facilities will restart deliveries on Aug. 15.
A combination of issues has led to diesel and heating oil in southern Germany, Austria, and Switzerland.
- First is the energy disruption due to Western sanctions on Russia.
- Second OMV’s Burghausen refinery maintenance.
- And third, falling water levels on the Rhine River have reduced deliveries of crude product shipments from the North Sea.
The panic hoarding of diesel and heating fuel likely comes from utilities who have had to switch the type of power generation from natural gas to other crude products due to capacity constraints on the Nord Stream 1.
German power prices have soared to a new record of more than 400 euros per megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange on Thursday on the prospects of a worsening energy crisis.
With Brent crude prices tumbling below $100 a barrel, it appears the paper oil market is out of touch with the tightness reality of physical markets.
END
FRANCE
France to reduce nuclear output due to the heatwave restricting ability to cool plants
(zerohedge)
France To “Reduce Or Halt Nuclear Output” As Heatwave Restricts Ability To Cool Plants
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 02:45 AM
Forecast models indicate that high temperatures will persist across France in early August. Europe’s second-largest economy has endured record-breaking heat this summer that has curbed nuclear power production. We detailed last month, “France Cuts Nuclear Power Generation Amid Record-Breaking Heatwave,” and now, more reductions are planned amid an energy crisis.
Bloomberg reported French utility Electricite de France SA (EDF) said nuclear power stations on the Rhone and Garonne rivers will reduce power generation because a persistent heatwave is increasing water temperatures too hot to circulate through condensers and discharge back into waterways.
Under French rules, EDF must reduce or halt nuclear output when river temperatures reach certain thresholds to ensure the water used to cool the plants won’t harm the environment when put back into waterways.
Restrictions have been in place at various times during the summer already. The latest warnings include curbs at the St. Alban plant from Saturday, according to a filing. The facility will operate at a minimum of 700 megawatts, compared with a total capacity of about 2,600 megawatts. Reductions are also likely at the Tricastin plant, where two units will maintain at least 400 megawatts. -Bloomberg
France is the continent’s largest producer of atomic energy, usually a net exporter of power across EU member states but is now importing electricity since the output this summer will be the lowest in more than three decades. The cause of declining nuclear power output is plants shut for maintenance and or inspection checks.
France’s nuclear reactor capacity was around 44% on Monday. Bloomberg data showed that two reactors restarted earlier this week, which boosted nuclear capacity to 49% on Wednesday.
The reductions in nuclear power output have helped push power prices to near record levels in France and neighboring countries, such as the UK and Germany. France’s power generation problem comes as Europe faces the worst energy supply crunch in decades. Russia reduced natural gas flows via Nord Stream 1 pipeline to just 20% capacity the other week, causing fear of a prolonged energy crisis through 2023.
END
UK
UK raises rates by 50 basis points and surprisingly the pound crashes. Investors know that by raising rates, they are destroying their economy
(zerohedge)
Pound Crashes After BOE Hikes By Most Since 1995, Starts Gilt Sales Yet Warns Of Crushing Stagflationary Recession
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 07:37 AM
In what may be the most dovish double-rate hike in history, moments ago the Bank of England raised rates by the expected 50bps to 1.75% and announced it was starting gilt sales, yet at the same time the bank forecast a “long recession” driven by soaring inflation… perhaps soaring stagflation would have been more appropriate.
The rate hike was supported by 8 of the 9 voters (Tenreryro voted for 25bps) who copied the RBA phrase that policy not on a “pre-set path” and also kept up a pledge to act forcefully again in the future if needed, potentially putting similar hikes on the table for coming meetings. While the UK central bank was the first major central bank to hike rates after the pandemic, and has moved at every meeting since December, it had thus far stuck to smaller, more usual moves. That left it risk of falling behind the curve, with some 70 other central banks having moved by a half-point or more this year. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 75 basis points at its last two meetings, while even the European Central Bank kicked off its cycle in July with a half-point rise.
The hike comes as officials predicted a UK recession will begin in the fourth quarter, and last all the way through next year. That’s the longest slump since the financial crisis. Officials expect the economy to shrink by around 2.1% in total. Inflationary pressures have “intensified significantly,” the BOE said. “The latest rise in gas prices has led to another significant deterioration in the outlook for activity in the United Kingdom.”
The BOE also boosted its forecast for the peak of inflation from 13.1% to 13.3% in October amid a surge in gas prices, and warned that price gains will remain elevated throughout 2023 as stagflation. That will sharpen a cost of living crisis that will see real disposable incomes fall more than at any time in around 60 years.
Alongside the decision, the BOE also laid out its plans for reducing the mammoth government bond holdings it amassed during the crisis. Active sales, the first carried out by a major central bank, are likely to start after a confirmatory vote in September and will be in the region of around £10 billion a quarter. Including redemptions, the BOE sees its stock of gilts declining around £80 billion in the first year of the program. Officials said there would be a “high bar” to altering the plan. Sales of the far smaller holding of corporate bonds will begin in the week starting Sept. 19, the BOE said. Taken together the moves represent a significant step up in the BOE’s battle against inflation.
The BOE also said it plans to sell gilts from its holdings evenly across “buckets” of short, medium and long-maturity gilts, and will not schedule a gilt sales operation on the same day as an operation by the UK’s Debt Management Office.
The BOE will also launch a new Short-Term Repo facility, designed to keep short-term market rates close to the BOE’s key interest rate as it reduces the size of its balance sheet.
Here are the details from the BOE announcement:
RATES:
- Eight members of the Committee judged that a 0.5 percentage point increase in Bank Rate to 1.75% was warranted at this meeting. For these members a more forceful policy action was justified.
- Market rates imply more BoE tightening than May; show Bank Rate at 2.4% in 04 2022. 2.9% in Q4 2023. 2.4% in Q4 2024 (May: 1.9% in Q4 2022 2.6% in Q4 2023. 2 2% in 04 2024)
GILT SALES:
- Committee is provisionally minded to commence gilt sales shortly after its September meeting subject to economic and market conditions being judged appropriate and to a confirmatory vote at that meeting.
- The Committee judged that over the first twelve months of a sales programme starling in September a reduction in the stock of purchased gilts held in the APF of around GBP 80 billion was likely to be appropriate.
- Given the profile of maturing gilts over this period this would imply a sales programme of around GBP 10 billion per quarter
OUTLOOK:
- United Kingdom was now projected to enter recession from the fourth quarter of this year and last five quarters
- The Committee would be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures and would if necessary act forcefully in response
FORECASTS:
- BoE estimates GDP fell 0.2% QIQ in q2 2022 (June forecast: -0.3% Q/Q) sees +0.4% Q/Q in q3 2022
- BoE estimates GDP in 2022 +3.5% (May forecast: +3.75%), 2023 -1.5% (May: -0.25%), 2024 -0.25% (May: +0.25%). based on market rates
- BoE monetary policy report estimates unemployment rate 3.67 in Q4 2022 (May forecast: 3.61%): Q4 2023 4.68% (May: 4.26%); Q4 2024 5.68% (May: 5.05%)
- BoE estimates real post-tax household disposable income in 2022 -1.5% Y/Y (May: -1.75%). 2023 -2.25% (May: +1%), 2024 +0.75% (May: +2.5%)
- BoE estimates wage growth +5.25% Y/Y in 04 2022 (May forecast +5.75%). 04 2023 +5.25% (May: +4.75%). Q4 2024 +2.75% (May: +2.75%)
The forecasts, based on average energy bills increasing by 75% to around £3,500 in October, also highlight the scale of the challenge awaiting the victor of the race to replace Boris Johnson as UK prime minister.
The BOE forecasts, based on a market path for interest rates that peaks at 3% next year, show the economy contracting about 1.25% in 2023 and a further 0.25% the following year. Unemployment, meanwhile, will climb to 6.3% by 2025. Inflation will peak above 13% later this year, and still be at 9.5% in the third quarter of 2023. After that it will fall rapidly toward the 2% target as the recession saps demand.
As Bloomberg notes, even after billions of pounds of government support for struggling households, families are set to be around 5% worse off by the end of 2023 with incomes falling both this year and next. So set against the gloomy outlook, the half-point hike, unprecedented since the BOE gained independence in 1997, is a sign officials are calling time on the era of cheap money and scrambling to keep pace with a wave of global tightening from its international peers.
The BOE decision feeds into what BBG described as an increasingly acrimonious debate about who is responsible for growing cost-of-living crisis. The BOE has been blamed in some quarters for acting too slowly in face of the growing inflation threat, and Liz Truss, who is favored to win the race Johnson as prime minister, has vowed to sharpen the BOE’s mandate if she takes power. The contest for the leadership has also made the task of forecasting the economy harder. The final two candidates are offering widely differing views on tax cuts and borrowing levels, with front runner Liz Truss advocating the more radical path. By convention, the BOE bases its forecasts on announced government policy, so the predictions don’t take into account anything brought up during the campaign.
With inflation soaring, the vote split on rates was more forceful than expected, with most economists expecting the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee to vote 7-2 for a 50 basis-point hike. Only Silvana Tenreyro backed a smaller move, saying rates may already have reached a level consistent with returning inflation to target and flagging worries about squeezed household incomes.
Minutes of the meeting showed officials kept in a pledge to move “forcefully” on rates if needed in future – language which paved the way for the half-point hike this month. Policy makers also added guidance that “policy was not on a preset path.”
Summarizing the uber-dovish-mega-hike, Vanda Research FX strategist Viraj Patel said that “this is what EM central banks do hike rates into a recession. Stagflation trade in the UK back on. And that’s not good news for $GBP that cares about growth more than defensive rate hikes”
In kneejerk response, cable, which had risen into the decision, immediately tumbled as it realized the rate hikes will be limited in the face of the coming recession, and plunged more than 100 pips below 1.21 to a session low of 1.2086 so far as markets digested the grim projections from the BoE, especially the 5 quarter recession.
At the same time, Gilts spiked and sent yields sliding to session lows of 1.84% as the coming “long recession” means massive curve inversion.
Following the announcement, market pricing has a 25bps in Sept entirely priced in with a 30% chance of a 50bps rate hike. Further out, end-2022 pricing is relatively unchanged from pre-release levels with 100bps of further upside implied before the barrage of rate cuts and new QE begins.
end
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/
IRAN/USA
New sanctions by the uSA on Iran targeting oil sales to East Asia
(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)
US Hits Iran With New Sanctions Targeting Oil Sales To East Asia
TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 06:05 PM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
The US on Monday issued fresh sanctions against Iran meant to target the Islamic Republic’s oil and petrochemical sales to East Asia.
The new sanctions targeted three Chinese firms and one UAE firm accused of doing business with the Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industry Commercial Co. (PGPICC), which the US Treasury Department says is one of Iran’s largest petrochemical brokers.
According to the Treasury Department, PGPICC facilitated the “sale of tens of millions of dollars worth of Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products from Iran to East Asia” through the firms that were hit with sanctions.
The sanctions are the latest sign that the Biden administration is not serious about reviving the Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA. On Monday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was asked if the US was ready to return to JCPOA, but he sidestepped the questions and put the responsibility on Iran.
On this question, the US Treasury statement noted: “The United States continues to pursue the path of diplomacy to achieve a mutual return to full implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” according to Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson.
“Until such time as Iran is ready to return to full implementation of its commitments, we will continue to enforce sanctions on the illicit sale of Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals,” the statement said.
The Biden administration has maintained a hardline position on Iran and refuses to lift non-nuclear-related sanctions or sanctions they claim are outside the scope of the economic benefits Iran was supposed to receive from the JCPOA.
The Treasury Department said that until the JCPOA is revived, the US will “continue to enforce sanctions on the illicit sale of Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals.”
END
RUSSIA/THE GLOBE
Russia is seemingly unaffected by the sanctions
(Kimani/OilPrice.com)
Russia Has Exported $1 Billion In Fossil Fuels Per Day Since The Ukraine War Despite Sanctions And Boycotts
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 02:00 AM
By Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com
Despite wide-ranging sanctions and import bans, Russia’s vast energy sector continues to thrive, with the country managing to export nearly a billion dollars worth of fossil fuels per day in the first 100 days since its invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, higher crude oil and fuel prices have allowed Russian oil and gas revenues to climb even after the sanctions forced export volumes to dip.
Ultimately, there is no shortage of willing buyers lining up for cheap Russian Urals, nor is there a dearth of middlemen connecting them with Russian energy companies.
Lurking behind the scenes are Switzerland’s giant trading houses Vitol, Glencore, and Gunvor as well as Singapore’s Trafigura, all of which have continued lifting large volumes of Russian crude and products, including diesel, amid wide-ranging Western Sanctions on Russia.
Vitol has pledged to stop buying Russian crude by the end of this year, but that’s still a long way from today. Trafigura promised it would stop buying crude from Russia’s state-run Rosneft by May 15th but is free to buy cargoes of Russian crude from other suppliers. Glencore has promised it wouldn’t enter any “new” trading business with Russia, but appears willing to maintain previous deals.
Meanwhile, India and China have been making up for much of the lost markets for Russian fuels.
Surging Imports From Russia
India has never been a big buyer of Russian crude despite having to import 80% of its needs. In a typical year, India imports just 2-5% of its crude from Russia, roughly the same proportion as the United States did before it announced a 100% ban on Russian energy commodities. Indeed, India imported only 12 million barrels of Russian crude in 2021, with the majority of its oil sourced from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Nigeria.
But back in May, reports emerged of a “significant uptick” in Russian oil deliveries bound for India.
According to a Bloomberg report, India spent a good $5.1 billion on Russian oil, gas, and coal in the first three months after the invasion, more than five times the value of a year ago. However, China remains the biggest buyer of Russian energy commodities, spending $18.9 billion in the three months to the end of May, almost double the amount a year earlier.
And, it’s all about the money.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Urals crude from Russia has been offered at record discounts. Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, has told CNBC that a couple of commodity trading firms–such as Glencore and Vitol–were offering discounts of $30 and $25 per barrel, respectively, for the Urals blend. Urals is the main blend exported by Russia.
The experts say simple economics is the biggest reason why White House pressure to curb purchases of crude oil from Russia have fallen on deaf ears in Delhi.
“Today, the Government of India’s motivations are economic, not political. India will always look for a deal in their oil import strategy. It’s hard not to take a 20% discount on crude when you import 80-85% of your oil, particularly on the heels of the pandemic and global growth slowdown,” Samir N. Kapadia, head of trade at government relations consulting firm Vogel Group, has told CNBC via email.
Still, it will not be lost on many readers that India has maintained a cozy relationship with Russia over the years, with Russia supplying the Asian nation with as much as 60% of its military and defense-related equipment. Russia has also been a key ally on crucial issues such as India’s dispute with China and Pakistan surrounding the territory of Kashmir.
Source: Bloomberg
Smaller trading firms
India’s energy business with Russia has been booming, so much so that dozens of middlemen are muscling in, hoping to profit from the rapidly growing sector.
However, it’s not the Trafiguras, Glencores, and Gunvors of this world doing the work; this time around, it’s smaller, less well-known trading houses cutting supply deals with Indian refineries.
Bloomberg has reported that numerous mid-level commodity trading and energy firms, including Dubai’s Wellbred and Coral Energy, as well as Singapore’s Montfort and U.S.’ Everest Energy, have entered the race to market Russian oil to Indian buyers.
And Indian oil buyers are loving it.
Bloomberg says that state-run refiners such as Indian Oil Corp. are warming to the idea of buying from lesser-known traders, while refinery officials say they are easier to work with due to less bureaucracy that slows negotiations with energy firms such as Rosneft PJSC. Trading houses usually serve the function of middlemen by bridging differences between sellers and buyers, and even offer different payment terms to assist in the movement of funds.
Switzerland’s Golden Calf
That said, a lot of the companies helping finance Putin’s war are based in Switzerland, with the lion’s share of Russian raw materials traded via Switzerland and its nearly 1,000 commodity firms.
Switzerland is an important global financial hub with a thriving commodities sector, despite the fact that it is far from all the global trade routes and has no access to the sea, no former colonial territories, and no significant raw materials of its own.
Oliver Classen, media officer at the Swiss NGO Public Eye, says that “this sector accounts for a much larger part of the GDP in Switzerland than tourism or the machinery industry”. According to a 2018 Swiss government report, commodity trading volume reaches almost $1 trillion ($903.8 billion).
Deutsche Welle has reported that 80% of Russian raw materials are traded via Switzerland, according to a report by the Swiss embassy in Moscow. About a third of those materials are oil and gas, while two-thirds are base metals such as zinc, copper, and aluminum. In other words, deals signed on Swiss desks are directly facilitating Russian oil and gas to continue flowing freely.
With gas and oil exports coming in as the main source of income for Russia, accounting for 30 to 40% of the Russian budget, Switzerland’s role cannot be overlooked in this war-time equation. In 2021, Russian state corporations earned around $180 billion (€163 billion) from oil exports alone.
Again, unfortunately, Switzerland has been handling its commodities trade with kid gloves.
According to DW, raw materials are often traded directly between governments and via commodities exchanges. However, they can also be traded freely, and Swiss companies have specialized in direct sales thanks to an abundance of capital.
In raw materials transactions, Swiss commodity traders have adopted letters of credits or L/Cs as their preferred instruments. A bank will give a loan to a trader and as collateral, receive a document making it the owner of the commodity. As soon as the buyer pays the bank, the document (and ownership of the commodity) is transferred to the trader. The system gives traders more credit lines without their creditworthiness having to be checked, and the bank has the value of the commodity as security.
This is a prime example of transit trade, where only the money flows through Switzerland, but actual raw materials usually do not touch Swiss soil. Thus, no details about the magnitude of the transaction land on the desk of the Swiss customs authorities leading to highly imprecise information about the flow volumes of raw materials.
“The whole commodities trade is under-recorded and underregulated. You have to dig around to collect data and not all information is available,” Elisabeth Bürgi Bonanomi, a senior lecturer in law and sustainability at Bern University, has told DW.
Obviously, the lack of regulation is very appealing to commodity traders – especially those that deal with raw materials mined in non-democratic countries such as the DRC.
“Unlike the financial market, where there are rules for tackling money laundering and illegal or illegitimate financial flows, and a financial market supervisory authority, there is currently no such thing for commodity trading,” financial and legal expert at Public Eye David Mühlemann told the German broadcaster ARD.
But don’t expect things to change any time soon.
Calls for a supervisory body for the commodities sector based on the model of the one for the financial market by the likes of Swiss NGO Public Eye and Swiss Green Party proposal have so far failed to bear fruit. Thomas Mattern from the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) has spoken out against such a move, insisting that Switzerland should retain its neutrality, “We do not need even more regulation, and not in the commodities sector either.”
END
RUSSIA/USA
Cannot fool the public: only 1% of Americans see Russia as a major problem
(Watson/SummitNews)
Poll Finds Only 1% Of Americans See Russia As A Major Problem
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,
A new Gallup poll has found that a mere 1 per cent of Americans view Russia as a major problem, with far more concern expressed about inflation, bad governance and the state of the economy.
In a revealing illustration of to what degree people have lost interest in ‘the current thing,’ whereas 9 per cent of Americans viewed relations with Russia as the most important problem facing the country back in March, that number has now plummeted.
Broadly in line with how the media has relegated the Ukraine-Russia war to an afterthought (presumably disappointed over naive predictions Russia would be swiftly defeated), Americans have also lost interest.
Shortly after Russia’s invasion, the issue was seen as a top priority, but now just 1 per cent of Americans believe it is the most important issue facing the nation.
In contrast, 17 per cent of Americans see inflation as the most important problem right now, along with 17 per cent who say it’s bad government and 12 per cent concerned about the economy in general.
In fact, Russia doesn’t even break into the top 10, with Americans seeing crime, immigration and gun control all as more important matters.
8 per cent of Americans believing abortion to be the most important issue also represents a new record since Gallup began tracking it in 1984.
Notably, COVID-19, the January 6 hearings and climate change all fail to make the top 10 most important issues despite generally relentless media coverage.
As we previously highlighted, support for further US involvement in Ukraine collapsed when Americans were told exactly what that would entail for the economy and their cost of living.
* * *
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
a good view
Wisdom on the ukraine
Inbox
| Robert Hryniak | 8:41 AM (11 minutes ago) | | |
| to |
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Reality in the Ukraine
Inbox
| Robert Hryniak | 4:43 PM (6 hours ago) | | |
| to |
When the Russians can rain 6500 artillery shells in a concentrated area, yes, it is hell. A hell few soldiers get to walk away from. The stupidity to continue is beyond stupid as there can only be death and no one will win. The Ukrainians are no match for the integrated military format of Russian forces and realistically never were. The very real danger is for a wider use of missiles to eliminate infrastructure in the Western Ukraine to degrade semblance of order. Because as this defensive line is shattered there is little to stop an advance to Kiev if so desired. And with inflation running at 30% the country is headed for collapse
Rebuilding is well under way in Mauripol with the population there expected to double within 3 years as the city is rebuilt.
With a population of roughly 30 million and not the 52 million touted, one does wonder how many more will need to be sacrificed before there is change. As it is more than 4 million people left for the West and many who fled to Russia are returning as villages and towns are being rebuilt. The Eastern part of what was Ukrainian at one time will likely come back far stronger than it was before and integrated into the Russian economy.
8/3/22
By WarNews 24/7
Translated from Greek
“It’s pure hell there. Words cannot describe it,” said Ukrainian President V. Zelensky referring to the fighting in Donbass.
In his video message, Zelensky particularly emphasized the difficult situation for Ukrainian soldiers on the Donbas front.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that despite supplies of artillery rockets from the US, Kiev’s forces could not yet overcome Russian advantages in heavy weapons and manpower.
“We still cannot break the advantage of the Russian army in artillery and manpower, and this is very noticeable in the battles, especially in Donbass, Peski, Avdiivka and other areas.
It’s just hell there. Words cannot describe it,” he said in his speech tonight.
It is clear that Zelensky has collapsed under the weight of human and territorial losses.
The president of Ukraine made this statement to prepare the Ukrainian people for the loss of the entire Donbass.
As WarNews247 had pointed out, Avdiivka, Maryinka and Peski formed the reinforced Ukrainian defensive line. From there, Ukrainian forces bombarded Donetsk. Peski has already fallen while the Russian Army is facing total dominance in both other areas.
With massive artillery support, Russian and allied troops broke through the strongest defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and entered the village near Donetsk, which the Ukrainians had turned into a veritable fortress.
Therefore, Zelensky knows that the battle in Donbass has already been decided.
Read more here: On track for historic triumph: The Russian Army entered Peski and Krasnogorovka – In the center of Soledar the Russians – Bakhmut is counting down!
Yesterday, the 100th Brigade suppressed the firing points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In the second video the positions of the Ukrainian forces on the Konstantinovskaya highway were dismantled while the Russian artillery launched a barrage of attacks on Peski finishing off the now scattered Ukrainian forces.
He explains why Zelensky made these statements.
Watch video of the Russian bombings a source.
New bombings on the border with Poland and Nikolaev
At least two explosions were reported near western Ukraine’s border with Poland on Tuesday night.
A Russian missile hit a Ukrainian military installation in the Chervonograd region, Lviv regional administration said.
Regional governor Maksim Kozytskyi said via Telegram that he had no information about the damages.
Ukraine’s Air Force General Staff said the Russian armed forces fired eight missiles, clarifying that the missiles were fired from strategic bombers flying over the Caspian Sea.
Seven of the missiles were intercepted, he added, adding that an air defense position was hit in Lviv.
Explosions were also reported further south, in the town of Nikolaev.
Watch video at source
Russia: The direct involvement of the USA in the war in Ukraine
Earlier, Russia said on Tuesday (2/8) that the United States is directly involved in the war in Ukraine because American spies approve and coordinate Ukrainian missile strikes against Russian forces.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence services, admitted to the Telegraph newspaper that Washington was coordinating the HIMARS missile strikes.
Skibitsky told the British newspaper that there were consultations between US and Ukrainian intelligence officials before the strikes and that Washington had an effective veto over proposed targets, although he said US officials were not providing information on direct targets.
The Russian Defense Ministry said the interview showed Washington was directly involved, despite repeated assurances that it was limiting its role in the conflict to arms supplies because it did not want a direct confrontation with Moscow.
“All of this irrefutably proves that Washington, contrary to what the White House and the Pentagon claim, is directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine, ” the Defense Department said in a statement.
“It is the Biden administration that is directly responsible for all Kiev-sanctioned missile attacks on residential areas and civilian infrastructure in populated areas of the Donbass and elsewhere, resulting in mass civilian casualties, ” the Defense Ministry said.
There is currently no response to the Russian Defense Ministry’s allegations from the White House or the Pentagon.
Numerous videos at source:
https://warnews247.gr/katerrefse-o-oukranikos-stratos-v-zelenski-para-tin-voitheia-ton-ipa-den-boroume-na-nikisoume-tous-rosous-zoume-mia-kolasi-vid/
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES
The study of Uruguay should give you a true study of vaccinations and what it can do to you
(Crawford)
special thanks to Robert H for providing this terrific article)
| Robert Hryniak | 7:05 AM (56 minutes ago) | | |
| toHarvey |
https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/uruguays-tale-of-covid-19-medicine
the commentary:
Uruguay’s Tale of COVID-19, Medicine, and Vaccination
Pandemic National Case Studies
Aug 3
“That which is done at night appears in the day.” -Uruguayan proverb
Other Pandemic National Case Studies can be found here.
Uruguay provides an interesting pandemic case study insofar as it’s a nation outside of the political limelight. The nation of 3.5 million sits between the far larger neighbors of Brazil and Argentina. The majority of the population lives in the international trade center and capital of Montevideo, which is the place to be if you want to hear indigenous South Americans curse in Italian, weirdly.
While I was researching for this article, a friend of mine who lives there told me that Uruguay is beautiful, and I should come visit him there. So, I searched for some pictures, and he’s not wrong.
Uruguay’s Early Pandemic Success
During the first few months of the pandemic, Uruguay was held up as a model for success due to its extremely low COVID-19 case and mortality statistics.
Through October 2020, Uruguay reported just 58 COVID-19 deaths and a little over 3,000 cases. American media was there to tell us that this is because Uruguayans did a better job with education and public health:
The Uruguayan system was prepared for this before the actual disease arrived. So we were able to get to work more or less a month ahead of it. And we realized that everyone of us – the public, the health and science community, the government, including the political opposition which has supported the government in this – is part of the solution. It’s been a solid response with very few fractures if any. Not allowing either too much fear or too much indifference to take over. This is when it pays to have an educated country.
The article goes on to highlight contact tracing, mask wearing, keeping those darn Brazilians out, and progressive ideology:
Uruguay has recorded the lowest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita in South America, if not the entire western hemisphere. The small but progressive country has done that despite sitting right next door to Brazil – which has the world’s second-highest number of COVID-19 infections and fatalities behind the U.S.
What they failed to note is that Uruguay was among the nations to which India shipped hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) after lifting its export ban in April.
Later in 2020, Uruguayan scientists published a study showing that ivermectin reduced viral load and disease caused by mouse hepatitis virus (MHV), which is, like SARS-CoV-2, a Type 2 single-stranded RNA virus (Arévalo et al, 2020). While I could not find good statistics on IVM usage in Uruguay, it is notably available there in pharmacies.
Uruguay was also one of the nations where nasal sprays were tested and found to be highly effective at reducing symptomatic cases (Figueroa et al, 2021). Despite the fact that we do not have good statistics on prophylactic or early treatment medication, it seems very possible that Uruguayans were doing their own homework, and without pharmacies restricting their options.
Uruguay’s Experimental Mass Vaccination Program
Hold on to your hats, folks. Things are really starting to heat up in Uruguay where last month a judge ordered a halt to the vaccination of children, and for Pfizer to reveal the contents of the vaccines. In fact, the judge ordered a fast turnaround (not a ten month trickling of documents) on all the company’s documents regarding vaccine efficacy. But as Children’s Health Defense reported, Pfizer is refusing to turn over certain documents, pointing to contractual stipulations.
I’m told that Uruguay is a nation that generally trusts its ally, the U.S., which is perhaps why Uruguay dove as hard as nearly any nation in the world into its mass quasi-vaccination campaign. More than 7 out of 8 Uruguayans have been vaccinated so far, and most of those by the end of the Winter in the Southern Hemisphere:
The vaccination program began in Uruguay on February 27. So, what happened after that which led the Uruguayan government to bring Pfizer to court?
Almost immediately after Uruguay began injecting Pfizer and Sinopharm products, COVID-19 cases and deaths, which were previously almost non-existent in Uruguay, exploded upward. Uruguay went from having one of the lowest COVID-19 case rates in the world, to the top 30 among nations with populations over a million.
Something else changed, also. During the early weeks of 2021, Uruguay’s case fatality rate (deaths per COVID-19 case) went from around 1% to up over 1.5% where it remained through the end of the year. That is, not only did COVID-19 cases explode in Uruguay following the introduction of the quasi-vaccines, but the cases were more deadly on average.
Reuters reported this as follows:
Being charitable, maybe people in the Uruguayan government didn’t get COVID as much?
Somehow, I doubt it.
Excess mortality skyrocketed in Uruguay right in line with the mass vaccination program, starting and leveling off almost in tandem.
I’m sometimes unsure how to wrap these pandemic case study articles up. Do your own research. Make up your own minds. Take a good look at the world, and start thinking about what sorts of things you can do to project a positive change. Hug your kids and think long and hard about what you have them put in their bodies.
end
Now the uSA declares Monkeypox a public health emergency
(zerohedge)
US Declares Monkeypox Public Health Emergency
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 02:38 PM
Update (1440ET): The Biden administration has officially declared monkeypox a public health emergency.
“I want to make an announcement today that I will be declaring a public health emergency,” HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra said during a Thursday call with reporters.
“We’re prepared to take our response to the next level in addressing this virus.”
“We urge every American to kick monkey pox seriously and to take responsibility and help us tackle this virus,” he continued.
* * *
The Biden administration is planning to declare a public health emergency over monkeypox as soon as Thursday, the Washington Post reports, citing ‘two officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity’ – possibly after Nancy Pelosi loaded up on monkeypox stonks.
The declaration – an effort to ‘galvanize awareness and unlock additional flexibility and funding to fight the virus’ spread’ – would come from Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who is also considering a second declaration which would allow federal officials to ‘expedite medical countermeasures, such as potential treatments and vaccines, without going through full-fledged federal reviews,’ the Post continues.
The administration’s announcement follows similar decisions by health officials in New York, California and Illinois and global health leaders. The World Health Organization on July 23 declared that monkeypox was a public health emergency of international concern, its highest-level warning, after confirmed outbreaks in about 70 countries where the virus has not historically spread. -WaPo
According to the report, policymakers have argued over whether to declare the disease a public health emergency – which is no surprise considering that the vast majority of transmission occurs between gay men, to the point that the World Health Organization has urged gay men to ‘temporarily limit their number of sexual partners.’
Yet, looks like the Biden admin is going full throttle on monkeypox into midterms – with the White House naming longtime FEMA official, Robert J. Fenton, to head up the national response to monkeypox earlier this week.
Federal officials have identified 1.6 million people as ‘highest risk’ for monkeypox, however the US has only received enough doses of Bavarian Nordic’s Jynneos vaccine – the only FDA-approved shot to protect against the virus – for around 550,000 people.
More than 6,600 cases of monkeypox have been confirmed in the United States since May 18 with the vast majority occurring among men who have sex with men — a total that has doubled about every 8 days, but which experts believe is a significant undercount. Officials have also reported at least five cases of monkeypox in children, who are believed to have gotten infected through household transmission.
While health officials have stressed that monkeypox poses far fewer risks than coronavirus — with just a handful of deaths globally and none to date in the United States — the virus can lead to fever, swollen lymph nodes, rash and often painful lesions that can last for weeks and result in scarring. The virus also is linked to more severe complications in children, pregnant women and people with immune conditions. -WaPo
Are they going to also institute a “stop having gay orgies for 2 weeks to stop the spread” policy, given the precedent set during the pandemic that those spreading a virus should make wide-ranging personal sacrifices for the ‘greater good’?
Monkeypox, which comes from the same family of viruses as smallpox, spreads primarily through skin-to-skin close contact – mostly during sexual activity. As the Post notes, ‘the virus spreads through other forms of touch and can circulate outside the gay community, noting a handful of cases in women and children.’
According to Politico, the Biden administration and US public health officials have developed a ‘decision memo’ which will govern the monkeypox public health emergency.
Dr Paul Alexander..
THIS IS BIG
CANADA
Court Documents Reveal Canada’s Travel Ban Had No Scientific Basis; nothing in this is shocking, I knew the Canadian public health officials are dimwit ‘politicized’ dolts, NEVER operates on science
In the days leading up to the mandate, transportation officials were frantically looking for a rationale for it. They came up short. Did Trudeau personally order it? Great piece by Rupa Subramanya
| Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 3 |
What emerges is that in the court documents, it is evident that evidence and science did not underpin and justify the COVID travel policies and bans due to vaccination status, imposed by the Canadian government.
These are two very brave principled men who have decided to stand up to the tyranny in Canada. Huge praise! They have shown us the corruption and COVID lockdown lunacy in Canada. Rupa stands apart as a reporter.
‘On August 13, 2021, the Canadian government announced that anyone who hadn’t been vaccinated against Covid would soon be barred from planes and trains. In many cases, The Backward could no longer travel between provinces or leave the country. If you lived in Winnipeg and wanted to visit your mother on her deathbed in London or Hong Kong or, perhaps, Quebec City, you’d better get jabbed—or resign yourself to never seeing your mother again.
Jennifer Little, the director-general of COVID Recovery, the secretive government panel that crafted the mandate, called it “one of the strongest vaccination mandates for travelers in the world.”
It was draconian and sweeping, and it fit neatly with the public persona that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had cultivated—that of the sleek, progressive, forward-looking technocrat guided by fact and reason. The Canadian Medical Association Journal, in a June 2022 article, observed that “Canada had among the most sustained stringent policies regarding restrictions on internal movement.”
But recently released court documents—which capture the decision-making behind the travel mandate—indicate that, far from following the science, the prime minister and his Cabinet were focused on politics. (Canadians are hardly alone. As Common Sense recently reported, American public-health agencies have also been politicized.)
Two days after announcing the mandate, Trudeau called a snap election—presumably expecting that his Liberal Party, which was in the minority in the House of Commons, would benefit from the announcement and be catapulted into the majority. As it turned out, the Liberals failed to win a majority in the September 2021 election. In the meantime, roughly five million unvaccinated Canadians were barred from visiting loved ones, working or otherwise traveling. (Trudeau, for his part, stayed in power. Even though the Conservatives have won the popular vote in the past two elections, because of Canada’s parliamentary system, they have been denied the top job.)
The court documents are part of a lawsuit filed by two Canadian residents against the government. Until last month, they were under seal.
Both plaintiffs are business owners. Both have family in Britain. Both have refused the vaccine on the grounds of bodily autonomy. Both were reluctant to identify their businesses out of fear of losing customers.
One plaintiff is Karl Harrison. In his affidavit, Harrison, 58, said that he and his partner, Emma, had immigrated in 2009 from Britain to Canada. (He became a Canadian citizen in 2015.) They have two children, a 24-year-old son and a 14-year-old daughter, and they live in a tony neighborhood in Vancouver. He’d always been an entrepreneur. “I was involved in establishing, owning and co-owning over 40 venues of one sort or the other—restaurants, bars, music venues and comedy clubs,” he told me. “One music venue is fairly well known, called The Bedford. Ed Sheeran got his start there.”
Since 2000, Harrison had been involved in the travel industry. “We have a company in the U.K., Ireland, Spain, and we’re the largest retailer of packages for Disneyland Paris,” he said.
He also has an 88-year-old mother in Britain, and he was furious that, for months, he couldn’t visit her. “When you’ve got oppressive government behavior,” he told me, “you’re only left with only three choices: accept it, fight it or leave. I can’t accept it. I moved my family here, and I would be letting them down if we moved away—so I’m in fight mode.”
The other plaintiff is Shaun Rickard, whose father, also in Britain, is suffering from late-stage Alzheimer’s. Rickard, 55, lives in the town of Pickering, outside Toronto, and he owns a small exterior-siding and eaves-contracting business. He portrayed himself as something of an activist. “I guess I’m the Lone Ranger,” he told me. “When I see something wrong, evil, corrupt happen, I feel I have to speak up.”
He was surprised when Trudeau announced the travel mandate. “I said to myself, ‘Holy fuck, how can this be happening here?’” He added that the only way to stop it would be “through revolution, which is never going to happen in Canada, or through the courts, and the latter is what we did.”
So, in the fall of 2021, Rickard launched a GoFundMe to do battle with his government. In November, Harrison, who had learned of Rickard on social media, reached out to him. In December, they jointly filed suit.
Rickard said that, so far, the lawsuit had cost the two plaintiffs about $186,000—of which, Rickard had raised $121,000 on GoFundMe. (In February of this year, when the Canadian government invoked the Emergencies Act in response to the truckers protesting a separate vaccine mandate in Ottawa, GoFundMe forced Rickard, like those raising money for the truckers, off the site.)
Rickard and Harrison’s attorney, Sam Presvelos, said that all government decisions related to public health demanded transparency. “Civil servants shouldn’t hide behind a shroud of secrecy,” Presvelos told me.
The whole point of the case was to lift that shroud and cast a spotlight on the unscientific basis of the mandate.
Among other things, the court documents indicate:
- No one in the COVID Recovery unit, including Jennifer Little, the director-general, had any formal education in epidemiology, medicine or public health.
- Little, who has an undergraduate degree in literature from the University of Toronto, testified that there were 20 people in the unit. When Presvelos asked her whether anyone in the unit had any professional experience in public health, she said there was one person, Monique St.-Laurent. According to St.-Laurent’s LinkedIn profile, she appears to be a civil servant who briefly worked for the Public Health Agency of Canada. St.-Laurent is not a doctor, Little said.(Reached on the phone, St.-Laurent confirmed that she was a member of COVID Recovery. She referred all other questions to a government spokesperson.)
- Little suggested that a senior official in the prime minister’s Cabinet or possibly the prime minister himself had ordered COVID Recovery to impose the travel mandate. (During cross-examination, Little told Presvelos repeatedly that “discussions” about the mandate had taken place at “senior” and “very senior” levels.) But she refused to say who had given her team the order to impose the travel mandate. “I’m not at liberty to disclose anything that is subject to cabinet confidence,” she said.
- The term “cabinet confidence” is noteworthy because it refers to the prime minister’s Cabinet. Meaning that Little could not talk about who had directed the COVID Recovery unit to impose the travel mandate because someone at the very highest levels of government was apparently behind it.
- In the days leading up to the implementation of the travel mandate, transportation officials were frantically looking for a rationale for it. They came up short.
That was made clear by an email exchange in the latter half of October 2021 between Aaron McCrorie and Dawn Lumley-Myllari. McCrorie is the associate assistant deputy minister for safety and security in Transport Canada, the department that houses COVID Recovery. Lumley-Myllari is an official in the Public Health Agency of Canada. In the email exchange, McCrorie seemed to be casting about for a credible rationale for the travel mandate. This was less than two weeks before the mandate was set to kick in.
“To the extent that updated data exist or that there is clearer evidence of the safety benefit of vaccination on the users or other stakeholders of the transportation system, it would be helpful to assist Transport Canada supporting its measures,” McCrorie wrote.
Four days later, on October 22, McCrorie emailed Lumley-Myllari again: “Our requirements come in on October 30”—in just over a week—”so need something fairly soon.”
On October 28, Lumley-Myllari replied to McCrorie with a series of bullet points outlining the benefits, generally speaking, of the Covid vaccine. She did not address McCrorie’s question about the transportation system, noting that the Public Health Agency of Canada was updating its “Public health considerations” with regard to vaccine mandates.
Two days later, on October 30, the travel mandate took effect.
Then, eight-and-a-half months later, on June 14, 2022, government officials announced that they were suspending the mandate—although they made it clear that they could bring it back at any time.
Within days, government lawyers filed a motion seeking to shut down Harrison and Rickard’s suit on the grounds that it was now moot—and, Presvelos said, to make sure the public never saw the court documents. (Since the case was still open, and court documents are unavailable to the public while cases are open, shutting it down would have sharply reduced the likelihood of anyone seeing government officials’ testimony.)
So, on July 12, Presvelos filed an additional damages motion, arguing that his clients had suffered damages during the mandate. Neither Harrison nor Rickard said they wanted money. The point was to make sure the suit didn’t go away and the court documents were made public.
But even so, the inner workings of the COVID Recovery unit and, more generally, the Trudeau government’s thinking around the travel mandate remain opaque.
COVID Recovery has no website, and its name appears almost nowhere in government records. (There is a brief mention of the unit in the guidance document announcing that, effective June 20, the travel mandate would be suspended.)
“The Trudeau government has claimed to follow The Science on COVID, but that science is strangely different than it is everywhere else,” Bruce Pardy, a law professor at Queens University and a former board member at the conservative Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms, said in an email. “Instead, its policies are based on spite, divisiveness, and pure politics. COVID now serves as an excuse to punish the government’s ideological enemies.”
Harrison and Rickard wanted to expose the truth behind the mandate: that it was driven by politics, not science. They believed they had a right to refuse a vaccine about which they had come to have doubts. They said they were doing this for all Canadians, even those who thought they were wrong.
“What I have personally struggled with and have found to be the most unconscionable and objectionable aspects of how this pandemic has been managed,” Rickard said in his affidavit, “is the unnecessary hateful, vindictive and divisive behavior that I have witnessed from neighbors, friends, family members, colleagues and our government. The words and action of our government, which has entrenched policies based on vaccination status, without reflecting the risk of those unvaccinated, is far from the warm, caring, and thoughtful Canada I remember living in.”
In September, a judge will decide whether to quash the lawsuit. So far, 16 government officials have testified. Even though this kind of case almost never goes anywhere—there have been several court challenges to the mandates, and all of them have been rejected—Harrison and Rickard, in a way, have already won: They have cast a spotlight on how the sausage gets made. It may not matter. “I find the idea of helplessness prevalent in Canada,” Harrison told me. “The idea of protesting doesn’t come naturally here. There’s a tendency for people to keep their head down, which I don’t understand, and the government exploits that.”’
Commonsense, well done!
END
British Columbia/Canada
CTV news reports that Canada’s British Columbia public health removes COVID vaccine data: “BCCDC removes data on COVID-19 infection outcomes by vaccination status from dashboard”; WHY? Think!!!!
There is always a deeper darker malfeasant reason, governments only do things to hide a wrong or future wrong they are doing; they said reason is “the data became hard to interpret”
| Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 4 |
BC public health said : “These indicators were initially created because we wanted to identify breakthrough infections as we were ramping up the vaccination campaign. As most of the population has now been vaccinated with at least two doses of vaccine and many more have been infected with COVID-19, the data became hard to interpret.”
end
Dr Peter McCullough – Lifesite news interview
Inbox
| Neil Alho | 11:18 AM (43 minutes ago) | | |
| to bcc: me |
Dr McCullough advocated for early treatment – he and his colleagues successfully treated many patients and, ironically, has been targeted by the medical establishment.
Do you think he is correct this was justified?
Neil
Vaccine Impact
10,000% Increase in Cancers Following COVID-19 Vaccines as Doctors and Scientists Worldwide Sound the Alarm
August 2, 2022 2:54 pm
Rates of cancer have exploded following the COVID-19 mass vaccination programs, with doctors and scientists all over the world now sounding the alarm. I did a search in the U.S. government Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) to see how many cases of the most common cancers had been reported following COVID-19 vaccines, and it returned a result of 837 cases of cancer, including 88 deaths, 66 permanent disabilities, and 104 life threatening events. And this not an exhaustive list, as I tried to include ALL cancers listed in VAERS, but the database could not handle the query. I listed the cases by age, and of the 837 cases, 375 of them had no recorded age, although often the age can be found in the description. So I put those 375 cases on the first page of the results, and starting on the second page you can see how young some of these cancer patients are following COVID-19 vaccines. It begins with a 12-year-old girl and a 15-year-old boy, followed by many young adults in their 20s. Using the exact same search terms for cancer, I then searched ALL FDA-approved vaccines for the previous 30 years and found only 140 cases of cancer reported. That result is for 360 months (30 years), whereas the 837 cases following the experimental COVID-19 vaccines were reported in just 20 months, since the roll out of the COVID-19 shots beginning in December of 2020. That is an increase of 10,661.4%! A pathologist who lives in Sweden was just interviewed recently about the increasing rates of cancer she is seeing in her patients following the COVID-19 vaccines. Her name is Dr. Ute Krueger, and the video is found on the Doctors For Covid Ethics Rumble Channel. The Exposé has also just published an excellent review of some of the scientific literature showing how the spike proteins are interfering with “the DNA repair mechanism in lymphocytes.”
GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES
Special thanks to Robert H for sending his commentary on this important topic
Supply chain. Problems will grow
Inbox
| Robert Hryniak | 9:19 AM (35 minutes ago) | | |
| to |
If you were thinking about new phones or laptops, sooner than later is prudent. And if traveling to Asia, planned alternatives and spare credit is well advised. As it is many flights are already being diverted.
The frantic activity in building a new plant in Arizona may well be too late to offset what comes.
8/4/22
By WarNews 24/7
Global supply chain chaos is coming
No. 1 target is for China the most advanced chip manufacturing plant in the world, located in Taiwan. Sooner or later this factory will become “inoperable”, which will plunge the global supply chain into chaos in America and Europe.
The result will be a global shortage of mobile phones, computers and brake sensors and more.
At the same time, Apple’s chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) warned that a war between Taiwan and China would result in “everybody being a loser” as it would cause economic turmoil.
TSMC chief Mark Liu said earlier this week that the chipmaker, which is also the world’s largest semiconductor maker, would not be able to operate in the event of a Chinese invasion.
“No one can control TSMC by force. If you take military action or invade, you will render the plant inoperable,” he told CNN. (the rumor is that Taiwan would sabotage their own computer chip plant so the communists wouldn’t be able to use it)
The company head explained that the plant is a sophisticated production facility and depends on real-time connectivity with the outside world, Europe, Japan and the US, on matters ranging from materials and chemicals to spare parts and software.
He therefore called on Beijing to think twice before taking any action, as China accounts for 10% of the plant’s operations.
Last year, the plant manufactured more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors. The head of the company called on all concerned to avoid war so that the engine of the world economy could turn.
At the same time, he said that we could learn from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, since the war caused losses both in the West and in Russia and Ukraine.
Global control of semiconductors
We recall what the Russians reported a few days ago as revealed by WarNews247
“..In addition, the share of Russia and China in the supply of a number of rare earth metals on the world market, some places of natural gas reaches 100 percent.
And if the issue of Taiwan is resolved positively (if the invasion succeeds) for the Chinese, more than 75% of semiconductor production will be concentrated in the hands of one country…
This suggests that in the near future we can expect an inflow of yuan cash into the banks of the Russian Federation. And the problems with getting them will become less and less….”
other articles:
Dollar End: Russia-China Trades & Russian Yuan Bank Deposits – ‘Taiwan Gives Us Global Semiconductor Control’
China Imposes Embargo and Sanctions on Taiwan – Suspends Imports and Exports of Products
China took the first step against Taiwan by imposing an embargo on the island and imposing sanctions against its institutions. According to information, the embargo is expected to be extended, creating a climate of economic suffocation in Taiwan.
It is the first step before launching an attack.
Specifically, according to CNN, China announced the suspension of fruit and certain fish imports from Taiwan, as well as the export of natural sand to the island.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang said today that imports of grapefruit, lemons, oranges and other citrus fruits and some fish from Taiwan to China have been suspended…
Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Commerce also announced that it is immediately suspending the export of natural sand to Taiwan.
It is a key raw material for the manufacture of semiconductors, one of the main export products of the island.
For its part, Taiwan announced that the suspension of sand exports from China will have little effect as demand has fallen to 1% in recent years.
This is not the first time that China has announced restrictions on imports of products from Taiwan. Last year, Beijing banned imports of pineapples and apples. But the situation is completely different…
At the same time, Beijing will impose sanctions on two institutions from Taipei, banning their financial cooperation with mainland Chinese companies and individuals, said Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office. (excerpts)
end
GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA///AGRICULTURAL WAR//UN/W.E.F.
END
VACCINE INJURY/
COVID Vaccine Injuries Quietly Being Compensated Around The World
TUESDAY, AUG 02, 2022 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Jennifer Margulis and Joe Wang via The Epoch Times,
Programs in countries around the world have begun quietly compensating people who have been injured by or died as a result of the COVID-19 vaccines.
Humans are biologically diverse, with respect to both genetic makeup and past environmental exposures. Because of this, explained neurologist Dr. Robert Lowry, people can react very differently to the same medication or vaccination. Whenever a new drug or biologic hits the market, some people will have bad reactions and others may even suffer serious adverse events as a result.
Even under the best testing conditions, rare reactions will be missed. This is especially true for any product which is fast-tracked or authorized for emergency use before all the phases of necessary testing are complete.
COVID-19 vaccines are no exception. Despite the fact that we are constantly and consistently assured that COVID-19 vaccines are safe, and that severe adverse reactions are “very rare,” the FDA and the CDC with its Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, as well as the scientists and executives at each of the participating drug companies, know that some people will become permanently disabled or even die as a result of vaccination.
In fact, in 2011 the Supreme Court of the United States (pdf) reiterated the idea that vaccines, like other pharmaceutical products, are “unavoidably unsafe.”
In many countries around the world, consumers who are injured as a result of vaccines are covered by government compensation programs. In the United States there are two government-funded programs that are designed to compensate consumers for injuries, at the same time shielding vaccine manufacturers from liability for any serious injuries their products cause: The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) and the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP).
Not a Single Claim Compensated in United States
As of July 1, 2022, not a single claim has been compensated by the CICP. However, 31 COVID-19 countermeasure claims have been denied, “because the standard of proof for causation was not met and/or a covered injury was not sustained,” according to the CICP website. “One COVID-19 countermeasure claim, a COVID-19 vaccine claim due to an anaphylactic reaction, has been determined eligible for compensation and is pending a review of eligible expenses.”
At the same time, countries around the world are quietly compensating families whose loved ones have been injured or have died as a result of COVID-19 vaccines.
Japan Pays Bereaved Family of 91-Year-Old
The Japan Times reported this week that a 91-year-old woman who died after suffering an allergic response and sudden heart attack is the first person in Japan to be compensated for a COVID vaccine injury.
A ministry of health panel ruled that a causal relationship “could not be denied” in her case. Her family will receive a lump sum worth approximately $325,000.
The panel reviewed another 11 cases ranging in age from 20s to 90s but did not reach any other ruling.
So far in Japan, according to the article, 3,680 people have applied for compensation, 820 have been approved and 62 denied, with decisions on another 16 being “postponed.”
Taiwan Compensates 10 Claimants
On June 24, 2022, Taiwan’s National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program held a meeting to review 65 cases, according to the Taipei Times. The Taiwanese program awarded compensation to 10 claimants. These awards included a lump sum worth $116,877 to the family of someone who died after receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine.
This patient was hospitalized 10 days after receiving the vaccine due to a headache and vomiting. Testing revealed thrombocytopenia, a sometimes-lethal blood disorder that is characterized by low platelets.
However, the patient was discharged the next day, only to return that evening after losing consciousness. The patient died of intracerebral hemorrhage, a common cause of stroke.
When the vaccination program first rolled out in the United States, in December of 2020, an otherwise healthy obstetrician-gynecologist, Dr. Gregory Michael, 56, of Miami Beach, Florida, also died of thrombocytopenia.
Although his death occurred approximately two weeks after he got Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, and prompted an article exploring this side effect in the New York Times, the coroner deemed that there was no medical certainty that the complications from immune thrombocytopenia was vaccine-induced.
UK Pays Out for Vaccine Injuries
Vicki Spit was the first of a handful of people in the United Kingdom to be awarded compensation for injuries due to COVID vaccines, according to a June 24, 2022 article in the British Medical Journal.
Spit’s 48-year-old partner, Zion, became ill eight days after receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine and died. The victims were awarded the maximum: $150,000. As of May 2022, 1,681 claims for vaccine injury following COVID-19 vaccinations had been filed.
As quoted in the BMJ, Sarah Moore, a spokeswoman for the law firm representing the victims or their families, pointed out that though the awards will not do much to alleviate the financial hardships caused by the injuries, they constitute “the clearest statement yet, by the government, that in some rare instances the COVID-19 vaccines have caused very significant injury or death.”
Moore believes most of the compensation awards were for vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT) or cerebral venous sinus thrombosis.
At the same time, Yahoo News has reported that 444 cases of VITT have been recorded in the United Kingdom from 49 million doses of the vaccine, with 81 deaths.
Canada Received More Than 700 Claims, Approved 8
According to Canada’s Vaccine Injury Support Program (VISP), from June 1, 2021 to June 1, 2022, 774 claims have been received. Eight of these claims were “approved by the Medical Review Board,” meaning “these claims represent cases where it has been determined by the Medical Review Board that there is a probable link between the injury and the vaccine and that the injury is serious and permanent.”
According to the VISP website, “eligible individuals may receive income replacement indemnities; injury indemnities; death benefits; coverage for funeral expenses; reimbursement of eligible costs such as otherwise uncovered medical expenses.”
Post Shot Blood Clots
Thrombocytopenia can lead to blood clots as well as hemorrhaging. Thrombosis is another word for blood clots. Since it is very unusual for an otherwise healthy younger person to suffer from blood clots, the connection between the vaccines and this injury are difficult to refute.
Scandinavian countries have paid more attention to COVID-19 vaccine injuries than other countries. Norway compensated its first three victims in July of last year, a woman in her 40s who died, as well as a man and a woman in their 30s who both survived their vaccine injuries.
All three were healthcare workers who received the AstraZeneca vaccine, which Norway stopped administering on March 11, 2021, due to reports of serious blood clots, low platelet counts, and abnormal bleeding.
In fact, Norwegian doctors were among the first to point out the connection between the vaccine and these injuries.
Denmark, too, has been quickly and quietly processing vaccine injury claims. The Danish government awarded compensation for their first case of VITT in May of 2021.
At the time, 158 people had filed claims for COVID-19 vaccine injuries. The director of the patient compensation board, Karen Inger-Bast, said, “Generally, we often see injuries from vaccination. We also see them from, for example, vaccination against influenza and children’s diseases. That’s also how it will be with COVID-19, with up to 5 million people being vaccinated.”
No Financial Assistance for Americans Harmed by Vaccines
Yet, while other countries are compensating people who have been injured by COVID-19 vaccines, America has yet to financially assist a single claimant. According to the Health Resources and Service Administration, as of July 1, 2022, the CICP had yet to award compensation to anyone for damages due to a COVID-19 vaccine.
Read more here…
end
Since covid “vaccines” were unleashed, athlete deaths are up 1700% – NaturalNews.com
Inbox
| Robert Hryniak | 11:30 AM (34 minutes ago) | | |
| to |
One might imagine the same holds true for the general population.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-08-03-covid-vaccines-unleashed-athlete-deaths-up-1700percent.html
END
Newest Threat to Medical Freedom—Monkeypox “Emergency”
August 3, 2022 5:47 pm
The World Health Organization declaration of Monkeypox as a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” (PHEIC), was made by one man, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who has no medical training, over the objection of the majority of his own expert committee of medical and scientific advisors. Nine of the committee members thought a PHEIC should not be declared and six supported a declaration. “Nine and six is very, very close. Since the role of the committee is to advise, I decided to act as a tie-breaker,” Tedros said in a news conference called to announce the decision.” Perhaps it is the “new math” that leads to the conclusion of a “tie” with a 3-vote majority on one side? And why did Tedros decide to go with the minority opinion rather than the majority? Rosamund Lewis, the WHO technical lead for monkeypox, said in a July 20 press conference: “About 98 percent of (Monkeypox) cases are among men who have sex with men—and primarily those who have multiple recent anonymous or new partners.” She then said they are typically young and chiefly live in urban areas. So why did Tedros decide unilaterally to declare a global emergency for the vast majority of people who do not fit this profile?
MICHAEL EVERY
7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE
As Oil Tumbles To Pre-Ukraine Lows, Asia Just Can’t Get Enough Pushing Saudi Prices To New Record High
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 12:20 PM
The oil market’s Jekyll and Hyde moment is getting scarier by the day.
On one hand, fears of an imminent recession (validated not just by the US 2s10s curve hitting -39bps this morning but the BOE now forecasting a 5-quarter recession starting in Q4) are sending oil prices tumbling, with WTI tumbling below $90 for the first time since the start of the war in Ukraine.
On the other hand, the chaos in the physical market – the one that actually matters to commodities which trade not based on some future point in the curve but on the harsh reality of the spot “here and now” – is getting worse by the day, and today Saudi Arabia once again raised oil prices for buyers in Asia into record territory, as contrary to what price say, the global physical market remaining extremely tight despite alleged signs of weakening demand as economies slow (contrary to the always wrong conventional wisdom, Bank of America last week wrote that “The Fall Of Gasoline Demand Has Been Grossly Exaggerated.”)
As shown in the chart below, Saudi oil giant, Aramco, hiked its Arab Light grade for next month’s shipments to Asia to $9.80/bbl above the regional benchmark. That’s a jump of 50 cents from August, and a new all time high.
Below are some more thoughts from early July by Bloomberg’s Jake Lloyd-Smith on just this mismatch between physical and paper oil, where the gap is starting to approximate that of gold.
The global oil market is having a Jekyll-and-Hyde moment. A mismatch has opened up between what’s happening in crude futures, which have sold off on fears of a slowdown, and the physical side, which still looks pretty solid. That means if macro concerns start to lose their vigor, there’s support for a rebound.
In Robert Louis Stevenson’s classic 19th century novella, Hyde’s the rogue while Jekyll’s the good guy. The twist, of course, is they are one and the same person. In oil, futures have been dragged lower by fears a recession may erode demand; they’ve gone all Hyde. But in the real world, there’s still plenty of competition for prompt barrels showcasing the commodity’s Jekyll.
This dissonance caught the attention of the folk at RBC.
“The financial oil market is dislocating dramatically from an extremely tight spot physical market,” analysts including Helima Croft and Michael Tran said in a note.
“The physical market is pricing in scarcity, while the financial market is pricing in recession.”
That can make for some confusing signals.
On the one hand, oil kingpin Saudi Arabia just increased next month’s prices for Asia amid signs that underlying demand remains robust, but on the other hand, futures have been in retreat.
And while Brent is on course for a substantial weekly decline, the global benchmark’s prompt spread – that’s the difference between its two nearest contracts – remains firmly backwardated, a bullish pattern.
end
8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS
PANAMA
What an absolutely stupid move: Panama fixes prices of groceries and medicine
(zerohedge)
To Stop Inflation Protests, Panama Fixes Prices Of Groceries, Medicine
WEDNESDAY, AUG 03, 2022 – 04:40 PM
After enduring weeks of increasingly intense protests, strikes, and highway blockades that led to fuel and other product shortages, the Panamanian government last week announced it will exert control over the prices of 72 food items, and this week agreed to impose price caps on 150 medicines.
“With the regulation of the 72 products, the cost of the basic food basket would decrease by 30%, a savings of more than $80,” according to a statement issued by the office of President Laurentino Cortizo. Panama uses the U.S. dollar as its currency.
Per TeleSUR:
The agreement covers actions to ensure the price stability of 72 products of the basic food basket, covering rice, bread, different types of fish, sausages, chicken, vegetables, and legumes, as well as cleaning and toiletries products.
In addition to the medicine price caps, the government said it would also set up channels for the direct purchase of medicines, in an effort to alleviate shortages at public hospitals. The price controls will be accomplished through a combination of caps, subsidies, tariff reductions and limits on margins.
The commitment was the culmination of the latest round of Catholic Church-mediated negotiations between the Panamanian government and representatives of a coalition of protesters that included labor unions, civic organizations and indigenous people. The broad protest movement was initially sparked by teachers striking over the higher cost of their commutes, due to higher gas prices.
So far, the measure has had the desired effect. Panamanian Security Minister Juan Manuel Pino said the country’s roads were “all open” for the first time in weeks, and teachers returned to school on Tuesday, Aug 2.
It remains to be seen how long the price measures will placate protesters, who were also acting out against a government they see as corruptly padding the pockets of officials and their families and cronies.
The price-control announcement is just the latest in a series of accommodations over the past several weeks.
On July 11, Cortizo capped the price of gas at $3.95 a gallon for all buyers — a price 24% lower than the end-of-June price. He also promised price caps on 10 basic goods, including pasta, beef loin, vegetable oil and canned sardines. However, the demonstrations continued, with roadblocks imposed on many highways, including the critical Pan-American Highway. That prompted Cortizo to cut the price of gas again just six days later — that time, to $3.25.
The government continues to engage in talks with the protest coalition, which has many other demands, including another cut in fuel prices, lower medicine prices and allocating 6% of Panama’s GDP to education. Another demand is the establishment of a maximum profit margin for economic intermediaries, such as product distributors, according to People’s Dispatch.
Paired with the growing set of price caps, the protesters threaten to push Panama deeper into a dark spiral of government economic control and public discontent over the unintended consequences.
end
SRI LANKA
ARGENTINA:
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM
Euro/USA 1.0179 UP 0.0035 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN
USA/ YEN 133.76 DOWN 0.186 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…
GBP/USA 1.2089 DOWN 0.0055
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 26.89 POINTS UP 0.80%
Hang Sang CLOSED UP 406.85 PTS OR 2.06%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.06% // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 406.85 PTS OR 2.06%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 26.47 PTS UP 0.80%
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.06%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 190.30 OR 0.69%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1787,00
silver:$20.36
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 106.26 DOWN 12 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.82% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.168% DOWN 0 AND 9/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.89%// DOWN 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.98 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.798%
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0222 UP .0066 or 66 basis points
USA/Japan: 133.22 UP 0.707 OR YEN DOWN 71 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2144 UP 0.0006 OR 6 BASIS POINTS
Canadian dollar DOWN .0009 OR 9 BASIS pts to 1.2855
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..UP 6.7493
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7532
TURKISH LIRA: 17.94 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.169
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.692% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 2.977 DOWN 0 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 105.82 DOWN 56 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 2.38 PTS OR 0.03%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 75.12 POINTS OR 0.55%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 41.33 PTS OR 0.64%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 19.00 OR 0.23%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 70.94 PTS OR 0.31%
WTI Oil price 88.15 12: EST
Brent Oil: 93.60 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 60.35 UP 0 AND 23/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.798
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0246 UP .0089 OR 89 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2169 UP .0032 or 32 basis pts
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 132.09 DOWN 1.124//YEN UP 124 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2856 UP 0.0002 (CDN dollar DOWN 2 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 88.34
Brent OIL: 93.87
USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.681 DOWN 7 points
USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.972 DOWN 1 pts
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.94
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 60.35 UP 0 AND 23/100 ROUBLES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 85.68 PTS OR 0.26 %
NASDAQ 100 UP 57.78 PTS OR 0.44%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 21.57 DOWN 0.38 PTS (1.73)%
GLD: $167.17 UP 2.72 CENTS OR 1.65%
SLV/ $18.70 UP 15 CENTS OR 0.81%
end)
USA trading day in Graph Form
Hawkish-er FedSpeak Crushes Crude & Crypto; Bonds & Bullion Bid
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 04:00 PM
The Fed once again came out swinging today into the market meltup with Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester warning that there is a “need to raise interest rates more to ease demand,” and reiterating that she does not see any recession or weakness that would threaten a Fed pivot. She then went one step further and warned that the rate of hiking “could be more frontloaded than I had” in the June summary of economic projections.
“Rates continue to rise this year and into next year, through the first half and maybe by then we pause and then we can start bringing them back down. But it’s very hard to project out that far.”
It’s no wonder they need to keep jawboning as financial conditions (thanks to a sudden panic bid for risky assets) are now ‘easier’ than before The Fed started hiking rates…
Source: Bloomberg
And drastically dovishly decoupled from The Fed’s expectations…
Source: Bloomberg
Equity markets could not make up their minds today whether to “fight The Fed” and rally into hawkishness or fade with the imminent recession. By the close, only Nasdaq had managed gains…
And as far as this big bounce back goes…
Bonds were broadly bid today with only the long bond weaker (30Y +1bps) as the belly outperformed (5Y -6bps). However, on the week, only 30Y Yields are lower…
Source: Bloomberg
And it’s not just the US, after a 50bps rate-hike by BoE, UK 2s10s spread inverted for the first time since 2019…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar dived today, erasing the week’s gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was spanked lower again today, back below $22500…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold rebounded significantly today with futures back above $1800…
Crude crashed to fresh cycle lows today…
…trading back below its 200DMA and WTI back below $90 for the first time since Putin invaded Ukraine…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we wonder, does a potential drop in gasoline demand and the increasingly inverted yield curve signal an increased risk of a recession on the horizon? We’ll see if reality is going top catch up with payrolls tomorrow…
Source: Bloomberg
Remember, jobs are the last/laggiest part of the economy to signal a recession.
END
I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//
end
ii) USA DATA//
Initial jobless claims continue to rise indicating that the uSA economy is faltering
(zerohedge)
Initial Jobless Claims Hit 8 Month Highs, Continuing Claims Jump Ahead Of Payrolls Print
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 08:34 AM
Amid a growing wave of corporate layoff announcements, the number of Americans filing for first-time jobless benefits rose to 260k last week (moving its 4-week average to the highest in 8 months). More problematically, continuing claims is now starting to roll notably higher at 1.416mm – the highest since April.
Source: Bloomberg
Jobless claims are now completely decoupled from the headlines payrolls data…
Source: Bloomberg
This matches the decoupling seen between the establishment and household surveys…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, Andrew Challenger, Challenger, Gray & Christmas’ senior vice president, said in statement that:
“the job market remains tight, and large-scale layoffs have not begun. There are some indicators that hiring is slowing after months of growth, however.“
However, a quick glance down headlines shows at least 12 big companies that have announced layoffs within the last 2 weeks…
#1 Ultratec Inc. says that it will be laying off more than 600 workers.
#2 Electric truck maker Rivian will be laying off approximately 840 workers.
#3 7-Eleven has announced that it will be eliminating 880 corporate jobs.
#4 Shopify is laying off about 1,000 people.
#5 Vimeo says that it will be eliminating 6 percent of its current workforce.
#6 Redfin will be reducing the size of its workforce by 8 percent.
#7 Compass will be reducing the size of its workforce by 10 percent.
#8 RE/MAX will be reducing the size of its workforce by 17 percent.
#9 Robinhood will be reducing the size of its workforce by 23 percent.
#10 It is being reported that Ford “is preparing to cut as many as 8,000 jobs in the coming weeks”.
#11 Geico has closed every single one of their offices in the state of California, and that will result in vast numbers of workers losing their jobs.
#12 Walmart is eliminating about 200 corporate jobs as it contends with rising costs, bloated inventories and weakening demand for general merchandise.
But it’s not a recession remember!
All eyes on tomorrow morning’s big jobs print.
END
Another strong indicator proving the USA is in a recession: the misery index which measures the health of the USA citizen is at record highs
(McMaken/Mises)
The Misery Index Is At Recession Levels
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 09:05 AM
Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,
In spite of the fact that real wages are going down, the cost of living is soaring, and new jobless claims are heading up at a rapid pace, and the savings rate has collapsed, what really matters to the White House, it seems, is the “technical definition” of recession.
Never mind the fact that the US economy has contracted for the past two quarters, according to the federal government’s own numbers. Apparently, as long as the NBER has not yet issued its opinion on whether or not the US economy is in recession, the White House is going to double down on the assertion that the economy is in fine shape and people should really stop complaining. After all, as one White House spokesman put it, it’s not like there’s a famine or anything. So quiet down, rubes.
Although the White House seems to believe that things are pretty OK, the US’s misery index suggests they’re not.
June’s misery index (a composite of unemployment and CPI inflation) has risen to 12.5. That’s the highest since September 2011 when the US economy was experiencing a time of very weak job growth and economic growth following the Great Recession. At the time, the yield curve almost inverted, and there were fears of a new recession.
June’s misery index is also above the index from the 2007-2009 recession when the index peaked at 11.4 percent. The index is also about equal to where it was in the run-up the 1990-91 recession:
So while the NBER may not have yet opined on whether to apply the word “recession” to the current economy, the economy is clearly not in good shape. Call it a recession, or don’t.
While the White House may be trying to convince the voters that all is well, consumer sentiment suggests ordinary people aren’t buying it. Moreover, if we’re looking for an indication as to whether or not unemployment and inflation affect consumer sentiment, we need look no further than the fact the misery index tracks rather closely with consumer sentiment. If we invert the Michigan Consumer Sentiment trend and match it up with the misery index, we get this:
Consumer sentiment has plummeted alongside the increasing misery index, and this has often been the case in recent decades. Of course, economists and White House spokesmen could always just come back and claim that consumer sentiment is “wrong” and that people don’t understand how good things are. It’s worth noting that politicians, central bankers, and economists have done exactly that during months preceding previous recession. Ben Bernanke, for example, repeatedly noted in 2008 that the Federal Reserve was not predicting recession at all—this was after the recession had already begun (according to the NBER.) Of course, as Bernanke was insisting “all is well,” both consumer sentiment and the misery index were trending in recessionary directions.
Now we may be in a similar situation with Fed chair Jerome Powell talking up the economy’s alleged strengths while consumer sentiment goes into a nosedive, and the misery index repeatedly rises.
Yet, the bad news continues to pile up. The Fed has long clung to the job openings data in the JOLTS report, claiming that the economy must be find because employment (a lagging indicator) suggests strength. Well, this morning’s JOLTS report shows a clear downward turn from its upward thrust with job openings falling month-over-month by the most since the 2020 recession. Job openings have fallen 9.8 percent from the March peak.
But hey, at least there’s no famine!
end
IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES
iii)a. USA economic stories
iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues
Baby formula crisis deepens as nationwide out-of-stock rate hits 30% – NaturalNews.com
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And this is country that seeks war?
https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-08-02-baby-formula-crisis-deepens-out-of-stock.html
SWAMP STORIES
This is obvious to those that watch Fox news
Jonathan Turley
The Art Of Scandal Implosion: The Political & Media Elite Prepare To Drop Hunter Biden In A “Controlled Demolition”
WEDNESDAY, AUG 03, 2022 – 11:00 PM
Below is my column in Fox News on the status of the Hunter Biden investigation and how it presents a challenge for many in Washington. Due to the continued work of a small number of media outlets like the New York Post, it is no longer possible to bury the story or continue the false claim that it is “Russian disinformation.”
The hope now appears to be a “controlled demolition” where Hunter is indicted on limited grounds without causing collateral damage to the political and media establishment.
Scandal implosion is as much an art as it is a science and could be the most brilliant achievement in this ongoing scandal.
Here is the column:
For news junkies, there has been a remarkable and sudden shift in the media in the coverage of the Hunter Biden scandal. The shift is the very fact that there is suddenly coverage of the Hunter Biden scandal. From CNN to NPR, reporters are now acknowledging that the infamous laptop is not “Russian disinformation” as was widely claimed before the 2020 election. After years of burying the story, the media is now attempting an even more precarious exercise.
It is called controlled demolition: the implosion of a scandal to limit any blast effect on nearby structures or individuals. Like those buildings dropped between other structures, it takes precision and, most importantly, cooperation to pull off. Specifically, this controlled demolition will require the perfect timing of the media, Democratic politicians, and most importantly, the Justice Department.
That was the same alliance that successfully killed the story before the election despite evidence of a multimillion dollar influence peddling scheme by the Biden family. The media eagerly spread the false claim of 51 intelligence experts who declared that the laptop was likely “Russian disinformation.” Twitter and social media companies imposed a news blackout before the election. Recently, GOP senators also accused the Justice Department of effectively spiking the investigation — displaying the same bias documented in the Russian collusion investigation.
For his part, Attorney General Merrick Garland has refused to appoint a special counsel despite the overwhelming need for such an appointment. Even former Attorney General Bill Barr recently said that new evidence makes such an appointment essential ( a reversal of his initial position in giving the case to United States Attorney David Weiss in Delaware).
I previously wrote a column on the one year anniversary of the Hunter Biden laptop story that marveled at the success of the Biden family in making the scandal vanish before that 2020 election. It was analogized to Houdini making his 10,000-pound elephant Jennie disappear in his act. With the help of the media, the Biden trick occurred live before an audience of millions.
The problem is the public can now see the elephant.
That is why the media is now recalibrating. That was most evident in the recent statement of New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman that “I know The New York Times felt it didn’t pursue it originally as much as it wanted to; then it followed up, as I recall.” Friedman does not explain what overrode that journalistic interest in the story or why the “follow up” came a year after the election of Joe Biden.
It appears that President Biden is no longer seen as a political asset with most Democrats refusing to publicly support him in his promised reelection bid. Biden now could endanger Democratic control of Congress. The question is how to drop Hunter (and even his father) without causing damage to the media, the Democrats, or others in Washington. It requires a controlled demolition.
The most important thing is to control the blast. By refusing to appoint a special counsel, Merrick Garland has effectively blocked the risk of a report on the extensive influence peddling, including the repeated references to President Biden. the “Big Guy” is discussed in emails as the potential recipient of a 10 percent cut on a deal with a Chinese energy firm as well as other benefits. Emails also refer to Hunter Biden paying portions of his father’s expenses and taxes. Recently, there was additional support showing that “the Big Guy” was indeed Joe Biden.
The problem is that embarrassing evidence is mounting by the day. That includes the recent disclosure new open influence peddling by Hunter, referencing access to his father. Some emails show Hunter using trips with his Dad to arrange meetings with business associates like Magnani. Indeed, in one exchange with Magnani, Hunter complains that he is not getting responses on his business dealings, objecting
“I have brought every single person you have ever asked me to bring to the F’ing White House and the Vice President’s house and the inauguration and then you go completely silent,. I don’t know what it is that I did but I’d like to know why I’ve delivered on every single thing you’ve ever asked – and you make me feel like I’ve done something to offend you.”
The cringeworthy email only adds to the embarrassment not of Hunter Biden but the media struggling to control the damage from the scandal.
Yet, none of that would be the focus of coverage if the case can be ended on narrow criminal charges.
In other words, the case can then be collapsed by triggering a smaller explosion. Rather than pursue wider conspiracies connected to the influence peddling, Hunter could be indicted on a few tax or lobbying counts. That would allow for a plea bargain that would allow the media to focus narrowly on those counts and not the broader influence peddling by the Biden family.
Of course, controlled demolition can at times take an unexpected turn. The greatest danger is that either house of Congress could flip to GOP control. That would open up the entire matter to congressional investigation. Yet, if a plea has already closed the case, the legal blowback could be confined.
The key to political controlled demolitions “to ‘implode’ the building, that is, make it collapse down into its footprint.” The footprint is now Hunter Biden, confining the implosion to him while leaving the media and establishment untouched.
end
Without a doubt: a future President of the uSA: Josh Hawley
DeCamp/Antiwar.com
Viral Josh Hawley Speech Rejecting Sweden, Finland’s NATO Bids Met With Charges Of “Traitor”
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 – 10:00 AM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
The Senate on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved a resolution approving Sweden and Finland’s bids for NATO membership, demonstrating the bipartisan consensus on expanding the military alliance further on Russia’s border.
The measure passed the Senate in a vote of 95-1-1, with only Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) voting “no,” and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) voting “present.”
In an op-ed published in The National Interest, Hawley explained that he was against expanding NATO into Sweden and Finland because he believes the US should be expanding its military resources into the Asia Pacific to counter China.
An amendment that Paul tried to add to the resolution would have emphasized that Article 5, NATO’s mutual defense clause, does not supersede congressional authorization for war. But the amendment failed in a vote of 10-87.
The Senate vote was needed to ratify US approval for Sweden and Finland to join the military alliance. All 30 NATO members need to approve the Nordic nations’ memberships, and according to The Hill, the Senate vote makes the US the 20th country to do so.
In July, the House voted on a resolution supporting Sweden and Finland’s NATO bids that passed in a vote of 394-18, with only Republicans voting against the measure.
“Finland and Sweden want to expand NATO because it is in their national security interest to do so—and fair enough,” Hawley said addressing the House.
“The question that should properly be before us, however, is: is it in the United States’ interest to do so? Because that is what American foreign policy is supposed to be about, I thought.”
Hawley’s now viral speech arguing ‘America first’ was met in the usual quarters with charges of sympathies with Russia and the “alt-right”…
Turkey is the only NATO member that has said its legislature might block Sweden and Finland from joining the alliance. Ankara initially blocked the Nordic countries from applying but lifted the objection after signing a memorandum at the NATO summit in June.
Turkey accused Sweden and Finland of supporting the PKK, a Kurdish militant group Ankara considers a terrorist organization. Under the memorandum, the two Nordic nations agreed to respond to Turkey’s extradition request for suspected PKK members and other alleged “terrorists.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said the Turkish parliament could block Sweden and Finland’s NATO bids if they don’t comply.
end
King report
| The King Report August 4, 2022 Issue 6815 | Independent View of the News |
| July S&P Global Services PMI: Activity Declines – First Time in 2 Years The July US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index conducted by S&P Global came in at 47.3 percent, down from the final June estimate of 52.7 and in contraction territory… “US economic conditions worsened markedly in July. Excluding pandemic lockdown months, overall fall in output was the largest recorded since the global financial crisis and signals strong likelihood that economy will contract for a third consecutive quarter…” https://t.co/M5K2kxfXvm Remember, three consecutive quarters of negative GDP is not a recession! ISM: In July, the Services PMI® registered 56.7 percent, a 1.4-percentage point increase compared to the June reading of 55.3 percent. The 12-month average is 60.2 percent… The slight increase in services sector growth was due to an increase in business activity and new orders (59.9). The Employment Index (49.1 percent) contracted for the second consecutive month, and the Backlog of Orders Index decreased 2.2 percentage points, to 58.3 percent… Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in July for the 62nd consecutive month, with the index registering 72.3 percent… https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/nmi/rob202207svcs.pdf OPEC+ approves tiny oil output rise in rebuff to BidenOPEC to raise output target by 100,000 bpd from SeptOPEC faces output problems to meet existing targetshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-meets-amid-output-struggles-us-pressure-more-oil-2022-08-03/ Oil Surges After OPEC+ Shuns Biden With Small Output Hike, Signals “Severely Limited Excess Capacity” – The Meeting noted that the severely limited availability of excess capacity necessitates utilizing it with great caution in response to severe supply disruptions. The Meeting noted that chronic under-investment in the oil sector has reduced excess capacities along the value chain (upstream-midstream downstream). https://www.nationandstate.com/2022/08/03/oil-surges-after-opec-shuns-biden-with-small-output-hike-signals-severely-limited-excess-capacity/ WTI Oil surged after OPEC+ only increased production slightly, effectively proclaiming, “Let’s go Brandon”. Oil tumbled when the DoE reported a 4.47m crude oil inventory build (-600k expected) and a 2.5% drop in gasoline demand (per four week rolling average). @zerohedge: 4.7 million drain from Strategic Midterm Reserve – 1mm per day – brings total down to 470 million barrels, lowest since May 1985 US Trims Quarterly Debt Sales, Plans Bigger Cuts to 20-Year Bond The Treasury Department said in a statement in Washington that it will sell $98 billion of long-term securities at its so-called quarterly refunding auctions next week — down from May’s $103 billion. It marks the longest string of declines in about eight years… https://t.co/gDDMRqn3H5 Fed officials continue to walk back Powell’s reckless and deleterious neutral rate remark. SF Fed President Mary Daly: We’re Not Even Up to Neutral Right Now Daly: Markets Are Ahead of Themselves on Fed Cutting Rates Fed’s Daly Sees 50-Basis-Point Hike as Most Likely in September – BBG Fed Leaders Pledge Tough Fight to Keep Inflation Credibility St. Louis Fed President Bullard: “We still have some ways to go here to get to restrictive monetary policy…I’ve liked front-loading. I think it enhances our inflation -fighting credentials.” https://www.yahoo.com/now/bullard-urges-front-loading-rate-123145245.html Richmond Fed President said the Fed was committed to lowering inflation and a recession might occur. Despite more Fed officials’ hawkish comments, traders orchestrated an equity rally on Wednesday. Mary Daly is getting pounded from every direction for an unfathomably insensitive and haughty remark: “I don’t feel the pain of inflation anymore. I see prices rising but I have enough… I sometimes balk at the price of things, but I don’t find myself in a space where I have to make tradeoffs because I have enough, and many Americans have enough…” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-mary-daly-says-i-dont-feel-the-pain-of-inflation-anymore-heres-the-full-context-of-her-remarks-11659553509 Daly, realizing her condescending blunder, added: “I recognize what it feels like to not have that situation…In my daily life I see the rising prices, but I am fine because I have sufficient income…for other people that’s not the case and those are the people that this is so important for.” Ex-Dallas Fed staffer @DiMartinoBooth: This has GOT to be the most damning and insensitive thing I’ve ever heard a Fed official say. I’m saving this one, but not for posterity. How deeply insulting to those who are working so hard to make ends meet. How haughty and removed… ESUs traded sideways, mostly in positive territory during Asian trading. At 4:12 ET, while being modestly negative, ESUs commenced a moderate rally that ended at 5:19 ET. ESUs and stocks then traded sideways again until the rally for the NYSE open began at 9:30 ET. ESUs spiked higher until 10:09 ET. After a 23-handle drop in 25 minutes, ESUs and stocks rallied anew. ESUs and stocks plodded higher until 14:21 ET. Minneapolis Fed Pres Kashkari was about to speak. Kashkari: Big Banks in US Need More Capital – BBG 14:44 ET Kashkari: More Fed Capital for Banks Likely Needs Act of Congress – BBG Kashkari: High Time Fed Uses Its Tool to Its Full Potential – BBG 14:46 ET Kashkari: Fed Moved Too Slowly in 2021 to Curb Inflation – BBG 15:03 ET Kashkari: Inflation May Well Still End Up Being Transitory – BBG 15:04 ET ESUs and stocks went inert while the Minny Fed President spoke. They jumped to new highs on the absurd and insanely stupid Kashkari assertion that inflation might end up be transitory. The rally quickly halted when Kashkari said 2023 rate cuts seem like a very unlikely scenario. With 16 minutes remaining in NYSE trading, someone spiked ESUs to a minor new high. Alas, ESUs and stocks quickly reversed into a moderate decline that persisted until the NYSE close. Fangs and trading sardines soared, which is evidence of trader predominance in equity activity. Meta soared over 5%. The company announced that it would explore its first ever bond sale. The usual suspects hypothesized that billions of dollars in capital would benefit shareholders via acquisitions and possible share buybacks. This unleashed manic short covering and frantic guppy-trader buying. @ChrisBloomstran: AMDT Digital HKD passes Facebook at $435 billion market cap. One more trading halt and resumption of trading and AMDT will be larger than Berkshire Hathaway. Why spend 57 years compounding when you can get there in two weeks? The casino is alive and well. US Fed shrinking balance sheet at a much slower pace than planned earlier The Fed balance sheet has shrunk by just $75.5 billion or 0.84 percent from its peak in April this year…The Fed announced a plan to shrink its balance sheet at a rate of $47 billion per month in the first three months beginning May this year and $95 billions per month subsequently… https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/us-fed-shrinking-balance-sheet-at-a-much-slower-pace-than-planned-earlier-122080301652_1.html Positive aspects of previous session ESUs and stocks soared, once again, after the NYSE open Fangs soared; the Nasdaq 100 closed at its highest price since May 4; Nasdaq jumped 2.6% Negative aspects of previous session Unbridled speculation has returned to the US equity market Ambiguous aspects of previous session Commodities declined smartly – inflation ebbing or recession angst? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4143.58 Previous session High/Low: 4167.66; 4107.96 Ex-DoD official @ElbridgeColby: First and foremost, China’s ambitions are almost certainly not limited to Taiwan. Rather, they appear to seek first hegemony over Asia and global preeminence from there… they say it pretty openly now. Plus, they’re building a power projection military. If China achieves this goal… Americans’ prosperity and liberties will suffer. Why? China will have a controlling influence over more than 50% of global GDP. It will be the gatekeeper and the center of the global economy… (Due to Bushes, Clintons, & Establishment) The yuan will be the dominant currency. Chinese regulations will be the baseline…In that context, you can bet Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa will orient toward Beijing… Certain US elites and favored interest groups would prosper under this model, but not the society as a whole. Our economic security would be subject to Beijing’s diktat, and our freedoms would clearly suffer as a result. Economic power is political power… Why does Taiwan matter for this? Well, it’s critical to the defense of Japan, the Philippines, South Korea…If Taiwan falls, it will be *much* harder to prevent China from dominating Asia… https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1554631754543030272?s=02 Stop planning trips to Taipei and start finding better ways to prepare Taiwan for war. Time is running out for the beleaguered democracy. Xi Jinping’s rhetoric and actions make it clear that he intends to solve the ‘Taiwan problem’, and military force remains an option… https://t.co/mfHLu1IVjG Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Left Fuming White House Scrambling for Plan To quietly persuade Pelosi to delay the visit, the White House dispatched senior members of the National Security Council, as well as State Department officials, to brief the speaker and her team on the geopolitical risks… When… Pelosi could not be swayed, the administration instead planned for contingencies, setting up a scramble to ensure backchannels with Beijing were functioning and any fallout could be minimized. That included meetings between US officials and their counterparts at the Chinese embassy in Washington… Pelosi… was especially displeased with leaks her team believed to come out of the Biden administration in an effort to make her cancel the visit… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-03/pelosi-s-taiwan-trip-left-white-house-scrambling-for-a-plan Joe Biden is the ‘most compromised president’ in history, GOP congresswoman says. CLAUDIA TENNEY: … when he was vice president, flew on Air Force Two with his son Hunter and weeks later produced a huge contract with Hunter’s company… Right now China is critically important: Joe Biden is compromised. He puts out mixed signals. Joe Biden says one thing about supporting Taiwan and then his staff walks it back. … It’s time for strategic clarity… https://fxn.ws/3oQUGkr GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley wonders if China ‘holds something over’ Biden amid Taiwan tensions “I think there are many cases where our president should be condemning China for a lot of things… Does China hold something over this administration because of the Hunter Biden relationship with a lot of business people in China and what they have to do with the Communist Party and with the Chinese military?“… (10% for TBG) https://t.co/nybiyIAsrx @PaulSperry30: NEW: Hunter Biden arrogantly explaining in 2017 email to business partner why he deserves biggest cut of the China CEFC deal: “Only one player holds the trump card and that’s me. It’s the reality because I’m the only one putting an entire FAMILY LEGACY [Joe Biden] on the line.” China blocks some Taiwan imports but avoids chip disruptions China has blocked imports of citrus, fish and other foods from Taiwan in retaliation for a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi but avoided disrupting one of the world’s most important technology and manufacturing relationships… Chips are China’s biggest import at more than $400 billion a year, ahead of crude oil… https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/china-blocks-taiwan-imports-avoids-chip-disruption-87858952 Pico hires former Federal Reserve vice-chair Richard Clarida (Flaunting elitist cronyism) Ex-central bank official rejoins his former employer after being cleared in trading investigation https://www.ft.com/content/632f9e69-21a8-4f15-9f47-13c7a5351a4f Dem Sen Sinema (AZ) wants: Retain ‘carried interest’, reduce 15% min tax, plus $5B in drought resiliency funding. The Schumer-Manchin bill, risibly named Inflation Reduction Act, is in jeopardy. Sen. Hagerty slams Biden, IRS over calling for bank data: ‘This is just like the Chinese Communist Party’ – WSJ editorial board argues ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ will lead to more IRS audits & increased taxes https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/sen-hagerty-slams-biden-irs-calling-bank-data-just-like-chinese-communist-party Explosion In Retail Buying Revealed as Source of Latest Market Melt Up, Tesla Stock Surge https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/frenzied-retail-buying-revealed-source-tesla-stock-surge It was very predictable that there would be a summer rally. We delineated the reasons at the end of June. Powell’s pathetic neutral rate utterance was a wild cat that is exacerbating the rally and rejuvenating the speculative urges of The Street and the masses. We also warned that summer equity rallies during an ebbing economy usually generate some type of equity catastrophe in the fall. “The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.” — Charles Bukowski, German American poet, novelist, and short story writer Today – Yesterday’s King Report: The S&P 500 Index failed to break above the 50% retracement level for three consecutive sessions. If stocks decline sharply today, Big Mo will have switched jerseys. Will the usual forces that try to save stocks via ESU manipulation be operative today? Meta’s bond announcement kept Big Mo from switching teams. Barring unexpected news, today should be a range trading day as Fangs retrench. Afternoon trading could be listless as saner angels get flat ahead of the release of the July Employment Report tomorrow. ESUs are -4.50 at 20:20. The last large batch of corporate results appears. Expected earnings: BDX 2.50, CI 5.48, COP 3.85, LLY 1.69, JCI .84, APD 2.63, K 1.05, AMGN 4.40 Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 260k, Continuing 1.383m; June Trade Balance -$80.0B; Cleveland Fed Pres Mester on Economic Outlook 12:00 ET, S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3929; 100-day MA: 4120; 150-day MA: 4246; 200-day MA: 4343 DJIA 50-day MA: 31,677; 100-day MA: 32,715; 150-day MA: 33,431; 200-day MA: 33,993 S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3718.11 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4007.73 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4115.23 triggers a sell signal @CBSNews: CBS Senior Investigative Correspondent @CBS_Herridge says that recently killed Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was “so emboldened” by the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan last year that he was living “just a stone’s throw from the former U.S. embassy” in Kabul. https://t.co/3IrgFkxXAF Behind closed doors, Democrat Senate chairman dismisses Biden’s pursuit of Iran deal as ‘fantasy’ New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez tells Iranian dissident group the administration’s drawn-out negotiations with Tehran are “unrealistic and unproductive.” https://justthenews.com/government/security/behind-closed-doors-democrat-senate-chairman-disses-bidens-pursuit-iran-deal Trump-Backed House Candidate John Gibbs Beats Out Trump-Impeacher Peter Meijer in Michigan https://t.co/JLNJQZbO2a I’m a Michigander who just watched a household name get ousted by a Trump-backed outsider despite millions in support. Here’s why this is huge for all of America. The grandson of a beloved Midwestern superstore magnate had immediate name recognition… military service in Iraq… and his JFK-like demeanor… Meijer represents the old Republican regime.. its balance of social conservatism mixed with FDR-era liberalism, and an obsession with picking up Democratic ideas on how to derail the Constitution that were trendy 5 years ago. In his first week in office, Meijer… voted to impeach Trump in what was clear political theater, adding salt to the wound of the most divisive election in modern history. He went on to support Biden’s spending plans, the passage of “red-flag” gun control legislation… and other Democratic goals… https://t.co/n2c3EXnZmG @JackPosobiec: The @KariLake victory (for Gov) in Arizona represents a tectonic shift in the Republican Party. The rising New Right can defeat the money of the establishment. Times Square box cutter slashing suspect charged with hate crime against Asian woman; had 30 prior arrests (The solution is obvious: Ban blades, they kill more people than rifles!) https://t.co/pHMeeUO4zH “Government’s first duty is to protect the people, not run their lives.” — Ronald Reagan |
END
Greg Hunter: Interviewing
See you on Friday
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