AUGUST 9//GOLD CLOSED UP $6.70 TO $1795.75//SILVER WAS DOWN 25 CENTS TO $20.51//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $5.70 TO $937.50//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $22.05 TO $2227.25//FBI RAIDS DONALD TRUMP HOME IN FLORIDA SETTING OFF A FIRESTORM: A VERY DIVIDED COUNTRY//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY REPORT//VACCINE MANDATE//CHINESE ECONOMY FALTERS AGAIN//NORWAY MAY CURTAIL ELECTRICITY TO EUROPE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

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GOLD;  $1795.05 UP $6.70

SILVER: $20.49 DOWN 25 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1794.40

SILVER: $20.56

Bitcoin morning price:  $23,301 DOWN 643 

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $23,050. DOWN 894

Platinum price: closing DOWN $5.70 to $943.20 

Palladium price; closing DOWN $22.05  at $2227.25

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,786.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/08/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/10/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 19
072 H GOLDMAN 51
104 C MIZUHO 15
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 8
132 C SG AMERICAS 35
167 C MAREX 13
190 H BMO CAPITAL 13
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 150
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 285 82
661 C JP MORGAN 136
661 H JP MORGAN 3
690 C ABN AMRO 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 3 6
880 C CITIGROUP 6
880 H CITIGROUP 45
905 C ADM 4


TOTAL: 438 438

MONTH TO DATE: 28,450  

JPMorgan stopped:   136/438

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:  

438 NOTICES FOR 43,800 OZ //1.3623 TONNES

total notices so far: 28,450 contracts for 2,845,000 oz (88.491 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  

0 NOTICES FILED FOR nil OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  791 :  for 3,955,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $6.70 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.25 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: FIRST :A DEPOSIT OF 0.461 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 485.159 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY  A HUGE SIZED 1624  CONTRACTS TO 141,289   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  STRONG GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.83 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.83) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS//. HOWEVER  WE HAD SOME  SPECULATOR LIQUIDATIONS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 3622 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//HUGE BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SREIBF ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A FAIR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)    HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/(SPEC LIQUIDATION)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -478

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 7 days, total 4586  contracts:  22.930 million oz  OR 3.275 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (655 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 22.93 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 22.93 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1624 WITH OUR  $0.83 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1520 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER  ADDITIONS ////// HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATION// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3144 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 15.720 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 0  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  nil OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 1234 CONTRACTS  TO 455,315 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: +157 CONTRACTS.

.

THE SMALL SIZED  INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $13.55//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//FAIR ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 98.367 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF   $13.55 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 2485  OI CONTRACTS 7.729 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1251  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 455,158

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2328 CONTRACTS  WITH 1077 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1251 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2328 CONTRACTS OR 7,241 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1251) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1234): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  2485 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8900 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

16,957 CONTRACTS OR 1,695,700 OZ OR 52.74  TONNES 7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2422 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 52.74 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  52.74/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.49% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 52.74 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1624 CONTRACT OI TO 141,767 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1520 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 1520  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1520 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1624  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1520 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3144   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15.720 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  RISE IN PRICE OF  $0.83

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.50 PTS OR 0.32%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 42.33 OR 0.21%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 249,28 OR % 0.88.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0263%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7527//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7567//    /Oil UP TO 91.79 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 97,84// SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.50 PTS OR 0.32%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 42.33 OR 0.21%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 249.28 OR % 0.88.          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.26%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONG AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 1624 CONTRACTS TO 455,315 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS SMALL  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG RISE OF $13.55  IN GOLD PRICING  MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1251 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1251 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :1251 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1251 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 2485  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1251 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1234  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 13.55.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST   (98.3670),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:98.3670 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $13.55) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS // COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO COVER TO THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 2485 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (98.3670 TONNES)

WE HAD +157  CONTRACTS SUBTRACTED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2485 CONTRACTS OR  248500  OZ OR 7.729 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 123,865/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  112,862/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 9

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz197,879,226oz

Brinks
HSBC
Manfra
Malca

252 kilobars
Brinks &
3249 kilobars
HSBC






Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz65,604.847 oz
Brinks
No of oz served (contracts) today438   notice(s)
43,800 OZ
1.3623 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)3175 contracts 
317500 oz
9.875 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month28,450 notices
2,845,000 OZ
88.491 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

i) Into Brinks: 65,604.847 oz

total deposits: 65,604.847 oz

4 customer withdrawals:

i) out of Brinks: 11,317.160 oz (252 kilobars)

ii) Out of HSBC; 104,458.599 oz (3249 kilobars)

iii) Out of Malca: 16,498.620 oz

iv) Out of Manfra;  65,604.847 oz

total:  197,879.226 oz

total in tonnes: 6.15 tonnes

Adjustments: dealer to customer //1

Brinks  5594,274 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an  oi of 3613 contracts having LOST  171 contracts .

We had 260 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 89 contracts or an additional 8,900 oz will stand for delivery in this very active month of August. 

.As promised, from this point on, we will now add to the amount of gold standing at the comex until the end of the month.

Sept. lost 340 contracts to 2577 contracts.

October GAINED 152 contracts UP to 40,454 

We had 438 notice(s) filed today for 43,800 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 438 contract(s) of which 1   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  136 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (28,450) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (AUGUST 3613  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 438 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,162,500 OZ  OR 98.3670 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of AUGUST. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (28,450) x 100 oz+   (3613)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (438} x 100 oz} which equals 3,162,500 oz standing OR 98.3670 TONNES in this active delivery month of August.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  98.3670 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (   ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,318,414,091 oz   72.11 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  29,423,727.563 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 14,551,158,837  OZ (452,60 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,872,568.625 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 12,232,744.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 379.46 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 9

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory805,519.420 oz
BRINKS
CNT
JPMorgan





Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory593,891.400 oz

JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)
nil  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)95 contracts 
(475,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)791 contracts
 3,955,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  1  deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPM:  593,891.400 OZ

total deposit:  593,891.400   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 175.176 million oz/334.650 million =52.17% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 3

i) out of CNT:  4902.200 oz

ii) Out of Brinks  200,477.680 oz

iii) out of JPMorgan: 603,139.590 oz

total: 805,519.470   oz

 adjustments:  0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 55.259 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 334.650 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 95 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 1 NOTICE FILED ON FRIDAY

SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.  THE AMOUNT STANDING

WILL NOW INCREASE//(OR REMAIN CONSTANT) ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 4218 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 85,539

OCTOBER GAINED ANOTHER 46 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 93

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for  NIL oz

Comex volumes:65,787// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 81,889 contracts (  good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 791 x 5,000 oz = 3,955,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(95) and the number of notices served upon today 0  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 791 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (95)  – number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 4,430,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 999.16 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4  WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 485.159 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Pam and Russ take on the banks again.

(Pam and Russ Martens/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: Without authority, Fed creates $500 billion bailout fund for Wall Street

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-08-08 11:27Section: Daily Dispatches

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, August 8,8, 2022

The Federal Reserve is doing something it has never been allowed to do in its 109 years of operation. And the Fed is doing it without any pushback from Congress.

The Fed draws its statutory authority from the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which created the Fed’s “discount window” for making loans to Fed member banks engaged in making loans for “agricultural, industrial, or commercial purposes.” The Federal Reserve Act strictly prohibited the Fed from making loans “for the purpose of carrying or trading in stocks, bonds, or other investment securities.”

After Wall Street trading casinos blew up the U.S. economy in 1929 and brought on the Great Depression of the 1930s, Congress enacted the Glass-Steagall Act in 1933, which established federal deposit insurance for commercial banks and outlawed the merger of those federally insured banks with Wall Street trading casinos (investment banks and brokerage firms). The Glass-Steagall legislation protected the U.S. banking system for 66 years until its repeal by Congress in 1999. Today all the megabanks on Wall Street own both federally-insured banks and sprawling trading firms.

On July 28 last year the Fed announced that it was creating a $500 billion permanent bailout facility for the trading houses (“primary dealers”) on Wall Street to support “smooth market functioning.” The Fed gave the facility the bland name of “Standing Repo Facility” or SRF. What the Fed was effectively doing was creating a new “discount window” where both Fed member banks and Wall Street trading houses could obtain billions of dollars in cumulative loans if a liquidity crisis arose.

The resolution issued by the Fed in conjunction with the announcement indicates that the $500 billion ceiling can be “temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.” That means that Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who just recently started a new four-year term, has the power, without any advice and consent from Congress, to throw unlimited amounts of money at the trading houses on Wall Street. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

END

END

Ed Steer’s weekend commentary is in the clear 

Ed Steer: The big commercial silver shorts stand pat

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-08-08 19:16Section: Daily Dispatches

7:15p ET Monday, August 8, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The weekend edition of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest, published by GATA board member Ed Steer, is headlined “The Big Commercial Silver Shorts Stand Pat” and is posted in the clear at SilverSeek here:

https://silverseek.com/article/big-commercial-silver-shorts-stand-pat

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: RICE//GRAINS/DIESEL

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

end

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7527

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7567

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 42.33 PTS OR  0.21%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 249.28 OR 0.88%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL MIXED 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  106.08/Euro RISES TO 1.0221

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.161/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 134.97/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +0.9275%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.08% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.04%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.17//

3j Gold at $1790.20 silver at: 20.63  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 28/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.47

3m oil into the 91 dollar handle for WTI and  97 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 134.97DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9543– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9754well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.797  UP 3  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.012  UP 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.91

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Slide On Tech Weakness As Meme Stocks Fade, CPI Looms

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 08:01 AM

After a Monday which started off with a powerful rally only to fizzle and close in the red, overnight market action has seen a continuation of the muted drift lower, and S&P 500 futures have turned lower this morning, falling 0.2% to 4,132, near session lows after trading 0.2% higher earlier. Nasdaq futures dropped 0.5%, indicating that the index will extend its losses for a third session, and semiconductor companies like Nvidia and AMD slipped in premarket trading after Micron forecast adjusted revenue for the fourth quarter at or below the low end of its June 30 guidance. The fading of some meme stock euphoria that defined the past 3 days has not helped bullish sentiment. Treasuries dipped, with the 10-year benchmark yield rising three basis points to 2.79% as traders await Wednesday’s CPI report to gauge the path of Federal Reserve tightening.

In premarket trading, US semiconductor companies like Nvidia and AMD slipped after Micron followed Nvidia and forecast adjusted revenue for the fourth quarter at or below the low end of its June 30 guidance. At the same time, bank stocks were mostly higher in premarket trading Tuesday as the US 10-year Treasury yield holds steady around the 2.79% level. In corporate news, growing tensions within the Carlyle Group reached breaking point last week with the board deciding it had lost confidence in CEO Kewsong Lee. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Novavax (NVAX US) tumbles 33% in premarket trading as analysts see the quarterly revenue miss and guidance cut as disappointing, while remaining positive on the vaccine-maker’s longer term outlook.
  • GoodRx (GDRX US) shares soar by 50% in premarket trading, poised for their biggest jump since September 2020. The telemedicine firm’s 2Q results were good but more important for the company is the resolution of a dispute between its pharmacy benefit management customers and grocer Kroger, as this will “dramatically” improve visibility, analysts say.
  • Upstart (UPST US) shares slump 12% in premarket trading, as Barclays says investors should brace themselves for a “lengthier period of macro-driven instability” after the consumer finance company forecast revenue for the third quarter below analyst expectations and withdrew its full-year guidance.
  • Lemonade (LMND US) shares rally 16% in premarket trading after the insurance company posted a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and issued a full-year revenue forecast that includes Metromile. Jefferies says the beat was largely driven by reduced growth spend.
  • Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) falls 1.2% in premarket trading after being cut to sell from hold at Deutsche Bank, which says that 2Q results leave “little to hang our hat on.”
  • Tandem DiabetesCare (TNDM US) drops 1.8% on low volume after the firm was double-downgraded to underweight from overweight at Wells Fargo, with the broker saying consensus estimates for the insulin pumps-maker are too high.
  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) rallied 14% in premarket trading, rising along with fellow meme stocks, as the home-goods retailer is set to extend its rising streak for a tenth session – longest since 2007.
  • Avaya Holdings (AVYA US) shares sank 17% in premarket trading, after the company said there is substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern. Third-quarter loss was wider than the average analyst estimate, while adjusted Ebitda and gross margin missed

Focus now turns to the question of whether US inflation may have peaked in June as economists project the biggest drop in more than two years for July’s CPI print due tomorrow. A blowout reading for nonfarm payrolls has eased worries about a recession, while corporate performance remains stellar.

Until inflation abates and the Federal Reserve rebalances its priorities away from inflation and toward growth, tempting rallies are likely to remain unsustainable,” Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, wrote in a note to clients.

European stocks also fell, the Stoxx 600 declining 0.3%, with almost every sector in the red outside of banks, insurers and energy producers. Travel, tech and chemicals are the worst performing sectors. FTSE 100 is flat, but outperforms regional indexes. Here are some of the biggest movers in Europe today:

  • European semiconductor stocks slip after US memory-chip maker Micron reduced its 4Q sales forecast, citing challenging market conditions.
  • IWG shares drop as much as 18%, the most intraday since March 2020, with RBC saying the flexible office firm’s 1H results look “light.”
  • Zur Rose was cut to equal-weight from overweight at Barclays, which cited balance sheet concerns and “less conviction” on near-term growth acceleration. Shares drop as much as 12%.
  • RPS shares jump 75% to 205p after the environmental consultant received a takeover offer from Canada’s WSP at a price of 206p/share, or enterprise value of around GBP625m.
  • Abrdn shares slump as much as 10%, the most since April 2020, after the investment firm reported revenue that missed analyst estimates and delayed ambitions for sales growth.
  • Dufry gains as much as 4.4% after the Swiss duty-free store operator reported what RBC called a higher-than-expected set of 1H results with continued top-line recovery in July.
  • Kindred shares drop as much as 6.6%, the most intraday since June, after Bank of America initiated coverage of the Swedish online gambling firm at underperform with a SEK88 PT, saying its recovery could prove tougher than expected.
  • PostNL shares fall as much as 7.3% after Jefferies downgraded the stock to hold from buy citing “slower parcel volume growth, and rising fuel and labor costs.”
  • CEZ jumped as much as 3.4% after the Czech utility increased its profit guidance for the second time this year, citing surging electricity prices.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slid after Hong Kong damped speculation about looser stamp duty rules and China ordered a probe of the $3 trillion trust industry; meanwhile investors awaited this week’s US inflation report for cues on the pace of monetary tightening, while assessing the ongoing corporate earnings season. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6%, as technology shares followed US peers lower after a weak revenue forecast from Nvidia. Japanese stocks underperformed the rest of the region, weighed down by Tokyo Electron on disappointing earnings. Asian equities have been struggling for direction as investors remain wary over the prospect of faster US rate increases to curb inflation as well as rising geopolitical tensions. Fresh Covid lockdowns in China also added to the cautious sentiment. Asian emerging markets “remain too close to ground zero when it comes to the negative impacts of the trifecta of higher US interest rates, a slowing global economy and a deteriorating US-China relationship,” said Olivier d’Assier, head of APAC applied research at Qontigo. “These pressures are likely to keep investors in those markets on the defensive for the time being.” Hong Kong stocks dropped for a second day, erasing earlier gains as the government said it had no plans to relax the stamp duty on home purchases. Markets in Singapore and India were closed for a holiday on Tuesday.

Japan stocks dropped as investors reacted to the discouraging earnings from major US tech companies while also weighing the domestic results.  The Topix Index fell 0.7% to 1,937.02 as of market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei declined 0.9% to 27,999.96. Tokyo Electron Ltd. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline with its 8.2% tumble, as the maker of electronics short of operating income estimates and investors reacted to Nvidia’s quarterly results. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,408 fell, 667 rose while 95 were unchanged. “Stocks linked to earnings are affecting the move today,” said Makoto Furukawa, chief portfolio strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ MS Securities. “Long-term investors will not be taking much of an action as they will be waiting for the CPI data, though there may be some mid-to-long term investors that could be paying close attention to the financial earnings announcements, but not much of an major trend overall.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.1% to close at 7,029.80, boosted by strength across consumer discretionary and real estate shares. The financials sub-gauge declined, dragged by shares of National Australia Bank after the lender updated its cost outlook for the full year.  Meanwhile, Australia’s consumer sentiment tumbled as surging inflation, interest-rate increases, and falling home prices weighed on the outlook for households.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.4% to 11,753.48

In FX, the dollar retreated for a second day, with Group-of-10 currencies broadly in a holding pattern ahead of US CPI data on Wednesday.  Norwegian and Danish currencies outperform peers, while the Australian dollar underperformed peers, weighed by lingering fears on the outlook for global growth.

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% after declining 0.2% on Monday: “Even if inflation turned out lower than expected in July, we think the body of evidence justifies staying the course of swift monetary tightening,” wrote Danske Bank analysts in a note to clients on Tuesday. “If short-term inflation expectations do not moderate over the coming months, the Federal Reserve will likely need to hike more and extend the hiking cycle into next year.” That should support the dollar, while US LNG exporters are poised to benefit as heating season approaches, they wrote. Expect EUR/USD to drop to 0.95 in 12 months
  • EUR/USD gains 0.3% to 1.0228. Large expiries in the pair include 1.0185 (EU1.41b), 1.0300 (EU1.27b)
  • GBP/USD rises 0.2% to 1.2108: Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden told Reuters that the BOE would continue to sell gilts accumulated under its bond-buying programs even if officials eventually cut rates
  • AUDUSD fell as much as 0.3% after data show growing pessimism among Australian households despite business conditions and sentiment remaining strong. The pace of the currency’s decline has softened as there’s “some acceptance now of the tightening cycle,” says Patrick Bennett, a strategist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Hong Kong. “The Aussie looks to be trading more of its own accord, less of a global high beta at the moment”
  • USD/JPY little changed at 134.93

In rates, Treasuries were cheaper across the curve ahead as US auctions resume with 3-year note sale, to be followed in next two days by 10-year note and 30-year bond offerings. US stock index futures near day’s low with focus on earnings. Yields were cheaper by more than 4bp across belly of the curve, elevating 2s5s30s fly by around 3bp on the session; 10-year yields at 2.795% trade broadly in line with bund performance over European session and slightly underperform gilts. $42BN 3-year note sale at 1pm ET is first coupon auction of the August-October quarter; $35b 10-year and $21b 30-year follow Wednesday and Thursday. WI 3-year yield around 3.165% is above auction stops since 2007 and ~7bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped 0.5bp through. The UK long-end shrugs off comments by BOE’s Ramsden that the central bank would sell gilts even if interest rates are reduced.

In commodities, WTI crude futures trade around $90 a barrel; gold slightly firmer around $1,790. Base metals are mixed: LME aluminum outperforms while tin lags.

Bitcoin is underpressure after yesterday’s strong performance, action that has pushed the crypto back below USD 23.5k.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include Q2’s preliminary nonfarm productivity and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for July. Otherwise, earnings releases include Coinbase.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,128.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 437.82
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 160.23
  • MXAPJ little changed at 524.51
  • Nikkei down 0.9% to 27,999.96
  • Topix down 0.7% to 1,937.02
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 20,003.44
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,247.43
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 58,853.07
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 7,029.83
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,503.46
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.91%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0232
  • Brent Futures down 1.3% to $95.38/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 1.3% to $97.38/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,792.75
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.31% to 106.11

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • FBI Raid Focused on Material Trump Brought From White House
  • China Drills Show Preparation for Possible Invasion, Taiwan Says
  • China Seizes on Pelosi Visit to Set ‘New Normal’ for Taiwan
  • China Orders Surprise Audit of $3 Trillion Trust Industry
  • China Corruption Probes Stem From Anger Over Failed Chip Plans
  • Goldman Analyst Calls Out ‘Deeply Disappointing’ Energy Bets
  • Alibaba Reduced Workforce by Nearly 10,000 in Three Months
  • SoftBank Pledges Sweeping Cost Cuts After $23.4 Billion Loss
  • Micron Technology to Invest $40b in US Through End of Decade
  • Carlyle’s Billionaire Founders Reached a Breaking Point With CEO
  • ConEd Asks Brooklyn, Queens to Reduce Power Amid High Heat
  • Google Search Outage Affects Tens of Thousands of Users
  • Franklin Templeton Appoints Nomura Veteran as Head of China
  • What-If DC War Game Maps Huge Toll of US-China Clash Over Taiwan
  • Boeing to Restart 787 Deliveries Within Days on FAA Approval
  • Top China Analyst Sees Stocks in Limbo as GDP Growth Slows to 2%
  • Trump Turns to Lawyer on Bannon’s Losing Case for DOJ Talks

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks eventually traded mostly higher but with gains capped as the region focused on key earnings releases and initially followed suit to the indecisive performance in the US. ASX 200 was just about kept afloat by strength in tech and miners although gains were limited by weakness in financials including NAB despite posting earnings growth as it also flagged higher costs. Nikkei 225 was the laggard with the worst performing stocks pressured by earnings releases including SoftBank which suffered a record quarterly loss and warned of a potentially dramatic reduction in its headcount. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive in early trade with participants tentative amid lingering geopolitical concerns and  after a Chinese press report suggested that interest rate and RRR cuts are unlikely. The Hang Seng Index later strengthened with property names underpinned after reports that Hong Kong is considering waiving double stamp duty for mainland Chinese homebuyers. However, these reports were later refuted by the government.

Top Asian News

  • Recession Watch Spreads as Global Curves Follow Treasuries Trend
  • Felixstowe Dockers Offered £500 Bonus in Bid to Stop Strike
  • China’s Small Caps Defy Market Slump to Trounce Blue-Chip Stocks
  • Hong Kong Has No Plan to Cut Stamp Duty After Ip Floats Idea
  • Treasuries Hold Rebound, Australian Bonds Eke Out Advance
  • Tokyo Taxi Fares Set for Rare Hike as Inflation Pressures Mount

European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, but remain relatively rangebound and lack conviction with catalysts thin. Stateside, futures are similarly rangebound though are posting incrementally more mixed/flat performance, ES -0.1%. Pressure has been seen following a downbeat Q4 guidance update from Micron (-5% pre-mkt), pressuring the NQ -0.4% and European tech performance. Micron (MU) sees Q4 revenue at or below the low end of June 30th guidance; expects challenging market environment in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. Additionally, has announced USD 40bln investments in leading-edge US memory manufacturing; Micron expects to begin production in the second half of the decade, ramping overall supply in line with industry demand trends.

Top European News

  • Barclaycard said UK consumer spending rose 7.7% Y/Y in July which was boosted by clothing, beauty and staycations, while it added that UK consumers are starting to cut back on overseas travel, eating out and drinking to offset higher outgoings.
  • Poland’s Kaczynski (de-facto leader) has pledged they will not undertake any further steps in adhering to the EU Commission’s rule of law demands regarding unlocking grants/loans, saying “..shown maximum goodwill, but concessions have yielded nothing”. Will, if necessary, veto EU initiatives and seek to remove President von der Leyen. (Politico)
  • Recession Watch Spreads as Global Curves Follow Treasuries Trend
  • Continental Sees Better Second Half on Rising Auto Output
  • Ukraine Latest: Zelenskiy Lauds Biden Over ‘Unprecedented’ Aid
  • UK Airfares Up 30% as Bumper Demand Runs Up Against Flight Caps
  • Searing Temperatures Across Europe Trigger Weather Warnings

FX

  • DXY briefly dipped under 106.00 from a 106.40 peak despite a lack of news flow.
  • Sterling saw some downside on commentary from BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden, EUR/USD eyes several notable OpEx ahead of the NY cut.
  • Non-US Dollars are firmer to varying degrees with the aid of the softer Dollar.
  • USD/JPY found some resistance by its 50 DMA (135.14) early in the session and trades just under 135 awaiting the next catalyst

Fixed Income

  • Sonia/Gilts supported on BoE’s Ramsden before reverting to a ‘hawkish’ bias amid broader EGB/UST pressure.
  • Catalysts are thin with the initial upside fizzling out in short order though seemingly unaffected by strong/poor UK and German supply respectively.
  • US yields are incrementally stepper though the broader inversion remains while BTP-Bund spread holds around 210bp.

Commodities

  • Crude oil futures have drifted off best levels; however, pronounced upside seen most recently on Russia reportedly suspending oil exports via southern-section of the Druzhba pipeline.
  • Spot gold eyes USD 1,800/oz to the upside amid the softer Dollar.
  • Base metals are mixed with the breadth of the market also narrow, but LME copper reclaimed a footing above USD 8,000/t.
  • Norway has drawn up plans to ration electricity exports in a move which could stoke fears of energy shortages in Europe and the UK this winter, according to The Telegraph.
  • China’s NDRC is to lower retail prices of gasoline and diesel by CNY 130/tonne and CNY 125/tonnes respectively as of August 10th; 4th consecutive decline in prices.
  • Russia suspends oil exports via southern-leg of the Druzhba pipeline amid transit payment issues, via Reuters citing sources.

US Event Calendar

  • 06:00: July SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM 59.9, est. 89.5, prior 89.5
  • 08:30: 2Q Unit Labor Costs, est. 9.5%, prior 12.6%
  • 08:30: 2Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. -4.7%, prior -7.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday was the quietest day of the month after last week’s drama in Taiwan and the stronger than expected US data that put a more aggressive Fed back in play and created a lot of bond volatility and much flatter curves. There were still some big swings but it didn’t feel as frantic or busy. This temporary calm could clearly all change tomorrow with the latest US CPI so maybe the next 30 hours will be the calm before the storm or perhaps herald in the real start of the dog days of summer.

I’m going on holiday to Cornwall next week and after around 2 months where there’s been no rain here in the UK, the first drops of rain for some time seem to be dropping on Cornwall for the first day of our holiday and then carrying on through the week. Typical. At the age of 48, I bought my first ever wetsuit yesterday for paddle boarding and the like. If you don’t vote for me in next year’s II survey I’ll send you a picture!

Anyway, having said that it was calmer yesterday, that’s still relative as the NASDAQ and S&P 500, having been up around 1.5% and 1% respectively early in the session, ended up closing -0.12% and -0.1% respectively. The former was up +20% from its June lows at one point but Nvidia’s preliminary results and outlook led to the stock falling -6.3% and slowly taking the market down with it. Basically a good old fashion profit warning for the biggest chipmaker. As I type, US stock futures are edging back up with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.23%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.25%) slightly higher.

In Europe, the market closed while the S&P 500 was still up just over half a percent so the STOXX 600 (+0.74%), the DAX (+0.84%) and the CAC 40 (+0.80%) were all still able to post solid gains of their own. This morning though DAX futures are -0.17% lower.

There was good news yesterday though. One of the main stories was the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer expectations for July, which found that inflation expectations were declining at the 1-year, 3-year and 5 year-horizons. That’ll be music to the Fed’s ears, since if that trend continues then it means that the Fed may not have to be so aggressive in hiking rates, since one of their big fears is that higher inflation expectations will lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy of higher actual inflation as firms adjust prices and workers bargain for wages accordingly. Indeed, the numbers were pretty good across the board, with 3-year expectations down to 3.2% (from 3.6%), which is the lowest reading for that measure since April 2021. That said, when it comes to the Fed’s next meeting in just over 6 weeks, the decline in expectations didn’t seem to move the dial for investors, and futures are still pricing in a 75bps move as more likely than not following Friday’s very strong jobs report, with the hike priced in for next time priced at around 68.5bps down a basis point.

Sovereign bonds rallied steadily all day further out the curve so it was hard to say there was a definite trigger even if the inflation expectations story fitted the narrative. Yields on 10yr Treasuries fell c.-7bps to 2.746%, but with 2s10s flattening a further -6bps to -46bps, which is the most inverted it’s been since 2000. It was much the same story in Europe too, since the German 2s10s curve flattened by -3.2bps to close at its flattest level so far in 2022. And whilst yields fell back there as well, with those on 10yr bunds (-5.7bps), OATs (-5.0bps) and gilts (-9.7bps) all moving lower, that went alongside a fresh widening in peripheral spreads after a good run over the last week, with the gap between 10yr Italian yields over bunds up by +7.6bps to 213ps.

Elsewhere we got some further concerning news on the energy side yesterday, with Norway’s energy minister saying that they would be prepared to limit power exports if required, with refilling reservoirs to be prioritised over power production. This is a potentially significant development, since Norway is a key exporter of electricity to Europe, and this comes on top of the existing energy disruption thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as the current European heatwave that has further bolstered demand. In fact, French power prices for 2023 hit a record €543 per megawatt-hour yesterday, and their German counterpart also surged to €406 per megawatt-hour. For context, exactly a year ago today those prices closed at €81.70 and €79.14 respectively, so we’re talking about increases of more than five-fold over the last 12 months. And that also came amidst a fresh rise in oil prices, with Brent crude back up by +1.82% to $96.65/bbl, while WTI rose +1.97% to $90.76/bbl.

Another negative story of late have been the growing tensions between the US and China over Taiwan, with China continuing military exercises beyond their original conclusion on Sunday into yesterday. US President Biden said that he didn’t think China was “going to do anything more” but did say “I’m concerned that they’re moving as much as they are”. However, there was some more positive news for Biden domestically, as with less than 3 months to go until the mid-term elections now, FiveThirtyEight’s models are giving the Democrats their best chances of retaining the House and the Senate in recent months. For the Senate, they give the Democrats a 59% chance of retaining control (up from 47% a month earlier), and for the House they put that at 20% (up from 13% a month earlier). That comes amidst a fresh legislative win for Biden over the weekend, with the Senate passing the Inflation Reduction Act, which the House is expected to take up later in the week.

Asian equity markets are struggling to gain traction on a quiet morning. The Nikkei (-0.85%) is lagging in early trade but the Hang Seng (+0.77%) has pared initial losses on news that double stamp duty on the Island may be waived for Chinese homebuyers. Over in Mainland China, stocks are rebounding as the Shanghai Composite (+0.31%) and the CSI (+0.17%) moved back into positive territory whilst the Kospi (-0.03%) is oscillating between gains and losses as I type.

Elsewhere, early morning data showed that Australia’s NAB Business Confidence rose 5 points to +7 in July from the previous month, while business conditions advanced 6 points to +20 points in the same period, despite rising interest rates and high inflation. These were above expectations.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include Q2’s preliminary nonfarm productivity and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for July. Otherwise, earnings releases include Coinbase.

.

END

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Modest equity pressure exacerbated by MU guidance, thin docket ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 06:45 AM

  • European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, but remain relatively rangebound and lack conviction with catalysts thin.
  • Stateside performance has been similar though NQ -0.4% has come under pressure amid a Q4 guidance update from Micron (MU), -5% pre-mkt
  • DXY briefly lost 106.00 with modest upside seen in peers across the board
  • GBP initially dented on BoE’s Ramsden, with associated Gilt and broader debt upside relatively short-lived
  • Crude oil futures have drifted off best levels; however, pronounced upside seen most recently on Russia reportedly suspending oil exports via southern-section of the Druzhba pipeline.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include EIA STEO, Supply from the US, Earnings from Sysco, Coinbase, Warner Music.

As of 11:15BST/06:15ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

  • EIA STEO, Supply from the US, Earnings from Sysco, Coinbase, Warner Music.

GEOPOLITICS

TAIWAN

  • Taiwan’s Foreign Minister said China conducting military exercises around Taiwan is a gross violation of international law and has hindered one of the busiest shipping routes in the world, while he added Taiwan has the right to maintain relationships with other countries and has the right to participate in the international community which China has no right to interfere with. Furthermore, he stated that China’s sea and military exercises continue, especially around the median line, and that China is trying to wreck the median line which has been there for decades, according to Reuters.
  • Taiwan began a live-fire artillery drill simulating defence against an attack by China, according to AFP.
  • China’s military said it will continue drills around Taiwan on Tuesday, according to Reuters.
  • Around 20 Chinese and Taiwanese warships stayed close to the Taiwan Strait median line on Tuesday morning and some Chinese ships briefly attempted to cross the line, while several Chinese ships continued to conduct missions off Taiwan’s eastern coasts, according to a source briefed on the matter cited by Reuters.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Russian forces heavily bombarded front-line towns in Ukraine on Tuesday and Ukrainian officials reported intense fighting near the eastern city of Donetsk, according to The Telegraph.
  • US is readying an additional USD 1bln of military aid to Ukraine including long-range artillery munitions, anti-tank weapons and medical vehicles, according to Bloomberg.

CENTRAL BANKS

EUROPEAN TRADE

BoE’s Ramsden says it is more likely than not that the BoE will need to hike further, but have not reached a firm decision on this; had to act forcefully at the August meeting to ensure inflation does not become embedded. Inflation expectations remain anchored. Not ruling out a need to begin lowering the bank rate quite quickly, at some point. Could be in a situation of cutting rates and selling assets at the same time.

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, but remain relatively rangebound and lack conviction with catalysts thin.
  • Stateside, futures are similarly rangebound though are posting incrementally more mixed/flat performance, ES -0.1%.
  • Pressure has been seen following a downbeat Q4 guidance update from Micron (-5% pre-mkt), pressuring the NQ -0.4% and European tech performance.
  • Micron (MU) sees Q4 revenue at or below the low end of June 30th guidance; expects challenging market environment in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. Additionally, has announced USD 40bln investments in leading-edge US memory manufacturing; Micron expects to begin production in the second half of the decade, ramping overall supply in line with industry demand trends.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY briefly dipped under 106.00 from a 106.40 peak despite a lack of news flow.
  • Sterling saw some downside on commentary from BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden, EUR/USD eyes several notable OpEx ahead of the NY cut.
  • Non-US Dollars are firmer to varying degrees with the aid of the softer Dollar.
  • USD/JPY found some resistance by its 50 DMA (135.14) early in the session and trades just under 135 awaiting the next catalyst
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 1.0000 (1.06BLN), 1.0100 (799M), 1.0145-50 (926M), 1.0185-90 (1.69BLN), 1.0200-10 (1.69BLN).
  • USD/JPY: 133.00 (570M), 133.40 (679M), 134.50 (210M), 135.00-05 (975M), 135.30-40 (1.43BLN)
  • USD/CAD: 1.2750 (325M), 1.2875 (470M), 1.2900 (1.17BLN), 1.2920 (223M)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Sonia/Gilts supported on BoE’s Ramsden before reverting to a ‘hawkish’ bias amid broader EGB/UST pressure.
  • Catalysts are thin with the initial upside fizzling out in short order though seemingly unaffected by strong/poor UK and German supply respectively.
  • US yields are incrementally stepper though the broader inversion remains while BTP-Bund spread holds around 210bp.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude oil futures have drifted off best levels; however, pronounced upside seen most recently on Russia reportedly suspending oil exports via southern-section of the Druzhba pipeline.
  • Spot gold eyes USD 1,800/oz to the upside amid the softer Dollar.
  • Base metals are mixed with the breadth of the market also narrow, but LME copper reclaimed a footing above USD 8,000/t.
  • Norway has drawn up plans to ration electricity exports in a move which could stoke fears of energy shortages in Europe and the UK this winter, according to The Telegraph.
  • China’s NDRC is to lower retail prices of gasoline and diesel by CNY 130/tonne and CNY 125/tonnes respectively as of August 10th; 4th consecutive decline in prices.
  • Russia suspends oil exports via southern-leg of the Druzhba pipeline amid transit payment issues, via Reuters citing sources.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Barclaycard said UK consumer spending rose 7.7% Y/Y in July which was boosted by clothing, beauty and staycations, while it added that UK consumers are starting to cut back on overseas travel, eating out and drinking to offset higher outgoings.
  • Poland’s Kaczynski (de-facto leader) has pledged they will not undertake any further steps in adhering to the EU Commission’s rule of law demands regarding unlocking grants/loans, saying “..shown maximum goodwill, but concessions have yielded nothing”. Will, if necessary, veto EU initiatives and seek to remove President von der Leyen. (Politico)

NOTABLE DATA:

  • UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Jul) 1.6% (Prev. -1.3%); Total Sales YY (Jul) 2.3% (Prev. -1.0%)
  • US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Jul) 89.9 (Prev. 89.5)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US President Biden’s administration will permit a new injection method for the monkeypox vaccine, while the US is reportedly seeking to stretch out supply by injecting 20% of the current dose into the skin, according to NYT.
  • Former US President Trump said his Mar-a-Lago home was raided by FBI agents although Trump was in New York at the time, while the raid was part of a probe into his handling of classified information, according to AP.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is underpressure after yesterday’s strong performance, action that has pushed the crypto back below USD 23.5k.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks eventually traded mostly higher but with gains capped as the region focused on key earnings releases and initially followed suit to the indecisive performance in the US.
  • ASX 200 was just about kept afloat by strength in tech and miners although gains were limited by weakness in financials including NAB despite posting earnings growth as it also flagged higher costs.
  • Nikkei 225 was the laggard with the worst performing stocks pressured by earnings releases including SoftBank which suffered a record quarterly loss and warned of a potentially dramatic reduction in its headcount.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive in early trade with participants tentative amid lingering geopolitical concerns and after a Chinese press report suggested that interest rate and RRR cuts are unlikely. The Hang Seng Index later strengthened with property names underpinned after reports that Hong Kong is considering waiving double stamp duty for mainland Chinese homebuyers. However, these reports were later refuted by the government.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian NAB Business Conditions (Jul) 20 (Prev. 13, Rev. 14)
  • Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug) 81.2 (Prev. 83.8); MM (Aug) -3.0% (Prev. -3.0%)
  • New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales MM (Jul) -0.2% (Prev. 0.1%); YY (Jul) -0.5% (Prev. 1.9%)

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.50 PTS OR 0.32%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 42.33 OR 0.21%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 249,28 OR % 0.88.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0263%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7527//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7567//    /Oil UP TO 91.79 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 97,84// SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.50 PTS OR 0.32%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 42.33 OR 0.21%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 249.28 OR % 0.88.          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.26%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONG AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA//ECONOMY

Chinese economy slumps further as there are fears of huge layoffs

(Wu/EpochTimes)

China’s Economy Slumps Further, Raising Fears Of Layoffs

MONDAY, AUG 08, 2022 – 06:55 PM

Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Both official and independent data show that China’s economy has slumped further in the second quarter of the year, with manufacturing slowing down unexpectedly and a downturn in the real estate sector intensifying. This has raised fears of a wave of layoffs in the second half of the year adding to already severe unemployment issues in China.

China’s economy deteriorated further in July, said a China Beige Book International (CBBI) report in early August, which provides independent economic data. Factory outputs and new production orders in China reached their slowest since mid-2020, and retail employment was at its worst in more than two years, according to the latest CBBI survey. Deterioration in revenue growth for manufacturers and retailers curtailed profits, the report said.

On Aug. 1, official data revealed even worse numbers in manufacturing and real estate. Data released by the Chinese regime’s statistics bureau showed that the purchasing managers index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry for July was 49.0 compared with 50.2 in the previous month, a decrease of 1.2 percentage, which is below the critical level of 50.

In July, with more cases of COVID-19 emerging in parts of China, the communist regime continued its strict “zero-COVID” measures, putting many cities in lockdown, including industrial centers and economic hubs.

Manufacturing activity had rebounded in June after the lockdowns were lifted in parts of mainland China but have now slumped again.

The China Real Estate Index Research Institute publicized that in July, the average price of new residential buildings month-on-month in 100 cities in mainland China dropped instead of increasing, and the average price of homes further plummeted. Price drops for new houses were greater in cities, especially in the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas, where housing prices had been increasing in previous years.

Property sales in the 17 cities tracked by the Index Research Institute fell 33.4 percent month-on-month in July, compared with an 88.9 percent jump in June as lockdowns lifted.

High Unemployment Rate

According to a report by major Chinese finance website Caixin, employment in the domestic manufacturing sector has continued to shrink, with the employment index falling to its lowest point in 27 months. The report attributed the layoffs to cost-cutting measures of factories, weak sales, and a “cautious attitude toward hiring” across industries.

In addition, nearly 11 million college students in mainland China graduated in the summer—a record high. According to official data released by the Chinese regime, the unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 climbed to 19.3 percent in June, also record high.

Due to widespread uncertainty about employment, consumer confidence remains fragile. For those who still have jobs, many are more reluctant to spend money.

Official data shows that economic growth in mainland China slowed to 0.4 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The outside world believes that China’s economy may even already be in recession, as the Chinese regime is known for its lack of transparency and often reports false numbers.

Dim Prospects

At China’s ruling Communist Party’s (CCP) Politburo meeting on July 28, the regime acknowledged that this year’s international environment is “complex and severe,” and that domestic tasks are “difficult and arduous.” The CCP leadership remained silent on the 5.5 percent economic growth target it set for this year. Analysts say this suggests that the CCP believes it will ultimately fail to achieve this goal.

Independent current affairs commentator Tang Jingyuan told The Epoch Times that the downturn in Chinese real estate, a pillar industry and the largest sector of local government investment and revenue, has intensified. “Manufacturing employment continues to shrink, and unemployment hits a new high, and manufacturing corresponds to the export of China’s economy. It shows that the mainland China’s consumption stimulus policy has no effect,” he said.

“These data reflect that the three pillars of China’s economy: investment, exports and consumption, are overall in deceleration or even stalling. On this basis, the CCP authorities still stick to ‘zero-COVID’ policy, which will only hurt the Chinese economy,” Tang said.

“To make matters worse, China’s economic crisis is not a question of whether it can achieve the targeted growth rate, but whether it can stabilize the economy in the next five or even 10 years.”

Xu Jian contributed to the report.

END

CHINA/INDIA/USA

Not a very good idea:  USA to join in military drills near India’s disputed border with China

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

US To Join Military Drills Near India’s Disputed Border With China

MONDAY, AUG 08, 2022 – 07:45 PM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The US will participate in war games with the Indian military in an area of India that is less than 62 miles away from the country’s disputed border with China, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAN).

The drills will be held from October 18-31 and will be the eighteenth iteration of annual exercises between the two militaries known as Yudh Abhyas, which is Hindi for “war practice.” They will be held in the Auli area of the Indian state of Uttarakhand in the Himalayas mountain range.

The Yudh Abhyas drills are meant to train for fighting in high altitudes. The last iteration of the exercises was held in the mountains of Alaska in October 2021.

Tensions have been high between India and China in the Himalayas since June 2020, when clashes in the Galwan Valley killed 20 Indian troops and four Chinese soldiers. Since then, China and India have been engaged in talks to reduce tensions, but they have also reinforced their militaries along the LAN.

The US has been increasing military ties with India in recent years with hopes of using New Delhi as a counter to Beijing. After the Galwan Valley clashes, the US and India signed a new military pact, known as the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA).

Under BECA, the US can share more intelligence and satellite information with India. US military leaders have said that since signing the pact, the US has been able to help India with surveillance of the Chinese military along the LAN. The intelligence could also potentially be used for Indian missile strikes in the region.

Location of the major June 2020 border clash which left 20 Indian troops dead, via BBC:

News of the drills comes not long after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) made her provocative trip to Taiwan, which China responded to by launching its largest-ever military drills around the island.

Beijing also responded by cutting off military talks with Washington, and tensions between the US and China continue to soar.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

EUROPE/NORWAY

Norway is the leading supplier of electricity to Europe but the heat wave has caused water levels to fall. Now Norway is limiting electricity exports as they cannot

rule out rationing

(zerohedge)

Norway To Limit Electricity Exports, ‘Cannot Rule Out’ Rationing

MONDAY, AUG 08, 2022 – 07:20 PM

Norway on Monday announced that due to an ‘uncertain and demanding situation’ over sky-high electricity prices – caused by low water levels at hydroelectric stations (in what they refer to as a “weather-dependent power supply”), as well as the “dramatic situation in Europe” regarding Ukraine, the government will be limiting electricity exports “when the water level in the reservoirs drops to very low levels.

Norway has notably been referred to as the “battery of Europe” thanks to its ability to generate and export massive quantities of hydroelectric power.

They also won’t rule out the ‘low probability’ of having to ration electricity in the spring.

So far this year, far less electricity (11.6 TWh) has been produced in southern Norway than at the same time last year – 18 per cent less. In South-West Norway, the total production of adjustable hydropower last week was the lowest we have seen so far this year.

Collectively, this results in historically high electricity prices and a situation where, for the first time in many years, we cannot completely rule out a period of electricity rationing in the spring. But our professional authorities emphasize that the probability of this is low. -Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Norway

“This is not something people can afford to pay,” said Morten Frisch, a Norwegian energy consultant based in the United Kingdom, in a statement to the Daily Telegraph, adding that the cost of energy in Norway has already risen between 10 and 20 times the price people were paying last year.

“When they run dry, they run dry, and it’s likely to take a minimum of three months, possibly six months, before they can be refilled by rain,” Frisch continued.

As Torkel Nyberg of OilPrice.com writes:

A cut in Norwegian power exports would be felt in Northwest Europe, which itself is grappling with issues at coal and nuclear power generating plants due to the low water level in rivers limiting coal supply via barges and warm river water unsuitable for cooling nuclear reactors.

As a result of these issues and the uncertainty over natural gas supply from Russia, power prices in Germany for the year ahead jumped to a record on Friday.

This summer’s dry weather across Europe has affected Norwegian hydropower, which accounts for 90% of Norwegian power generation. The remaining around 10% of the electricity supply in Norway comes from wind power.

While Europe scrambles to procure natural gas for winter power generation and heating, Western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer, Norway, has a whole different power problem this summer—dry weather, which depletes water reservoirs for hydropower.

Although Norway doesn’t use gas for power generation, Europe’s gas and energy crisis is felt there, too. In recent weeks, hydropower producers have been discouraged from tapping more water for hydropower generation to save water for the winter. Operators were also asked not to export too much electricity to the rest of Europe as reservoirs are not as full as in previous years, and not to rely on imports from Europe, which is struggling with energy supply. Some Norwegian utilities, including top electricity producer Statkraft, have followed the plea from transmission system operator Statnet not to produce too much electricity now.  

end

ITALY

With Lagarde buying Italian debt and selling German debt, it is now wonder that there is no demand for Italy;s bonds

(Shedlock)

There’s No Demand For Italy’s Debt Except From The ECB

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 04:30 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Were it not for ECB’s country-specific QE, Italy’s bond yields would be soaring…

Despite the ECB QE cover, Italy’s 10-year bond yields are soaring relative to Germany. 

Eurozone 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields

Data from ECB, chart by Mish

ECB data runs through June. August is the current spot rate. 

Current 10-Year Bond Yields 

  • Germany: 0.88%
  • Spain: 1.94%
  • France: 1.44%
  • Greece: 3.05%
  • Ireland: 1.55%
  • Italy 2.84%
  • Portugal: 1.89%

Spreads to Germany

Current 10-Year Bond Yield Spreads to Germany

  • Spain: 1.06%
  • France: 0.56%
  • Greece: 2.17%
  • Ireland: 0.67%
  • Italy 1.96%
  • Portugal: 1.01%

Italy and Greece are on life support. Were it not for arguably illegal country-specific QE by the ECB, Greek and Italian bond yields would be through the roof.

ECB president Christine Lagarde has said many times the central bank won’t allow financial conditions across the euro area to diverge significantly and is ready to do whatever is needed to avoid it.

The Big Myth

The big Eurozone myth is that all Eurozone sovereign debt has no risk or the same risk. If so, the yield on all Eurozone sovereign bonds would be the same.

On July 26, 2012, after Greece 10-year bonds exploded to nearly 30 percent, then ECB president Mario Draghi (now Italy’s Prime Minister) gave a speech announcing “We will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro, and believe me it will be enough.”

After the announcement yield spreads plunged.

Q: What did Draghi do?
A: Nothing!

The bluff worked then. It’s not working for Lagarde now as evidenced by spreads and the chart by Robin Brooks. 

End of the 40-Year Bull in Debt and a “Global Depression” Threat

The bull market in bonds is over, and with that Danielle DiMartino Booth see a “Global Depression” Threat

Click on the link for an excellent video.

*  *  *

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

end

UK

end

FRANCE

France is to keep its power plants running despite the heatwave

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

France Looks To Keep Nuclear Power Plants Running Despite Heatwave

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 01:30 AM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

French authorities have allowed five nuclear power plants in France to continue operations and discharge hot water in rivers even during another heatwave as the country looks to keep its electricity generation stable and conserve natural gas for the coming winter.

Power giant EDF has warned that it might have to reduce nuclear power generation this summer because of environmental regulations as the water levels of rivers are low and water temperatures high. Water from rivers is typically used to cool reactors, while environmental regulations usually set limits on nuclear power output because hot water re-entering rivers could endanger the local flora and fauna.

However, under exceptional circumstances this year, the French nuclear energy regulator, ASN, said on Monday that it is temporarily changing the rules on hot water discharge at the nuclear power plants Blayais, Bugey, Golfech, Saint-Alban, and Tricastin.

The regulator thus prolonged the waivers for those plants, considering that the government has requested that nuclear power generation be maintained at as high levels as possible, in view of preserving gas and hydropower for the autumn and the winter, ASN said.

France’s EDF has warned for weeks that nuclear power generation in France would be reduced as high temperatures of rivers Rhone and Garonne make them too hot to cool reactors.  

France has had issues with its nuclear power generation this year, which has reduced the available electricity supply in France and Europe and sent French power prices for next year surging. Half of all reactors EDF is operating are currently offline for planned maintenance or repairs.

France’s nuclear power generation accounts for around 70 percent of its electricity mix, and when its reactors are fully operational, it is a net exporter of electricity to other European countries. Prolonged maintenance at several nuclear reactors this year, however, means that France—and the rest of Europe—have less nuclear-generated power supply now.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/USA

Russia suspends USA inspections of its nuclear arsenal under new start treaty

(zerohedge)

Russia Suspends US Inspections Of Its Nuclear Arsenal Under New START Treaty

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 02:15 AM

While the world is creeping closer toward a DefCon 1 exchange with every passing day, should Russia launch tomorrow there will be no way of knowing just how many warheads and ICBMs Putin is letting loose (not that he needs all that many). The reason is because on Monday, Russia informed the US that it is temporarily suspending American inspections of its nuclear weapons sites under the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START).

“On August 8, 2022, the Russian Federation officially informed the United States via diplomatic channels that our country is temporarily exempting its facilities from inspection activities under the New START Treaty,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding it also covers “facilities that can be used for demonstrations under the treaty.”

According to Anadolu, the statement stressed that the measures had a “temporary character” but everyone knows there is nothing more permanent in this world than a “temporary” government mandate.

It added that the exemptions would be immediately canceled in case of a “resolution of the existing problems and issues regarding the resumption of inspection activities under the treaty.”

The first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, START I, was signed in 1991 between the US and the USSR at a time when there were many thousands of nuclear warheads and took effect in 1994.

In 2010, former US President Barack Obama and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a successor agreement called New START which set a limit of no more than 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 missiles, including inspections to verify compliance with the deal.

Days before it was set to expire on Feb. 5, 2021, the two countries agreed to extend it for another five years.

Russia’s obfuscating move harkens to the depths of the cold war when every Russian nuclear move was shrouded in secrecy, and clearly what this means is that it’s time for a Spies like Us sequel.

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/CRIMEA

Russia is not going to like this: a long range missile hit Crimea

Will they target USA interests!

(zerohedge)

Crimea Base Rocked By Huge Explosion In Possible Long-Range Missile Strike

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 09:49 AM

A massive explosion erupted Tuesday deep inside Crimea at Russia’s Saky Airbase in Novofedorivka, which lies some 200km from front line fighting in Ukraine, immediately giving rise to speculation that this could have been a Ukrainian long-range missile strike

Few details are confirmed thus far, only that a multiple-stories high fireball and smoke was filmed from many angles engulfing the Russian military airbase. 

Local social media reports cited eyewitness accounts which said ambulances and emergency crews are speeding toward the site of the large explosion.

Nearby beachgoers in Crimea looked on stunned, given the ongoing Ukraine war has never before reached the environs of the territory which Russia controversially formally took over in 2014 following the so-called “Crimea crisis” and referendum. 

Some Ukraine war commentators were quick to speculate that given the site of the explosion apparently by unknown munitions is some 200km away from front lines, this means…

either Russia “had an accident” or Ukraine has some long range rockets.

An initial Russian defense ministry statement cited no casualties…

RUSSIA’S DEFENCE MINISTRY: NO CASUALTIES AFTER BLAST AT RUSSIAN MILITARY AIRBASE AT NOVOFEDORIVKA, CRIMEA – RIA

The airbase lies deep within the Crimean peninsula. 

developing…

end

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Humanity never changes

Inbox

Robert Hryniak1:58 PM (2 minutes ago)
to

The Zelensky Crowd  are looking to alter the Ukraine and remain in power by sheer force as long as possible while milking profits from weapon sales for themselves and their enablers. 

The resolution to a losing conflict is that the military steps in not to fight but to create a losing proposition for the Victor. The military has begun executing people on mass because humanity never changes in it’s obedience to authority. Before it was willful executions just in the Donbas but now it is wholesale attempted slaughter of a male population to incite hatred. The plan simply is to force all males in the Ukraine between the ages of 15 and 75 into national brigades to defend the Ukraine from the Russians. I wonder where they will get walkers and the likes? This is of course with Minimal training and useless weapons to defend in fortified positions while moving experienced well equipped Brigades into the Kherson  in the south with similar Reservist brigades for a assault to declare that they are pushing Russians back to Russia. Clearly, they have missed the horde of Chechens on the way with “to Kiev” in block letters on the backs of their shirts. During the second world war, Nazis did the same thing forcing Slavic boys between the ages of 15 and 17 into foxholes in Sicily with minimal training and rifles with German machine gun nests behind them to cut off any retreat. They were told that if they fought well they would live to see the sun come up tomorrow and if they retreated they would be shot. That is why in Sicily the allied forces encountered fierce fighting as young lads in foxholes fought for a few more precious hours of life. This effort by the Zelensky crowd is no different than what the Nazis did. One can readily assume that the money  that crowd and their enablers make will be blood drenched by Ukrainians dying for no purpose other than profit. The belief is that if each family has a loss then they will hate Russians. They have forgotten history and the cycle of invasions endured and the lack of hatred that ensued. Even after WWII Ukrainians and Germans worked and loved and prospered with each other, in Europe and abroad. 
As for the Russian slow grind of movement, Russians seem to be more concerned with Frontline Ukrainian troops in the Ukrainians, themselves. Having recognized what Ukrainians are doing the Russians are actively hunting the mechanized experienced brigades and eliminating their fighting capability. This is behind the frontlines. As for the Azov and the Kraken  battalions they are simply being exterminated, where they are. And that is why no Ukrainian today wants to join either battalion is death in certain. Perhaps in the ensuing months we will see an end to this needless waste of humanity. 
No doubt new war looms in Asia with a very distinct possibility of war breaking out with China early this fall. As I’ve said many times before, if you need electronic equipment buy it now because soon it will not be available, or much more expensive.  People forget the Taiwan produces 75% of all the chips needed in electronic devices. 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

UK Medicine Regulator confirms COVID-19 Vaccines are at least a shocking 7,402% deadlier than all other Vaccines combined

BYTHE EXPOSÉON•( 13 COMMENTS )

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The UK Medicine Regulator has confirmed that over a period of nineteen months the Covid-19 Vaccines have caused at least 5.5x as many deaths as all other available vaccines combined in the past 21 years.

This means, that when compared side by side, the Covid-19 injections are a shocking 7,402% more deadly than every other vaccine available in the UK.

Dr Paul Alexander..

end

Vaccine Impact


Aussie Doctor Risks Medical License to Tell the Truth About COVID Vaccine Injuries and Deaths: Crashes AMA Meeting Confronting Top Chief Medical Officer
August 8, 2022 4:35 pm

A doctor in Queensland, Australia has put his license to practice medicine on the line to bring his message of COVID-19 vaccine and injuries and deaths, and the “gaslighting” of patients and doctors who try to expose how deadly these shots are, to the public. He received corporate media attention recently when he crashed a meeting of the Australian Medical Association (AMA) calling out the country’s chief medical officer, Paul Kelly, while stunned doctors watched on. Dr. Bay recently recorded a video message where he apologized to his patients and the public for initially giving in to fear over potentially losing his job, and for not speaking out sooner. I have put together a video report with his message, the self-recording of his rant at the AMA, and an interview he did with Zeee Media recently explaining why he is now risking his career to bring this truth to the public.
Read More…

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

VACCINE INJURY/

Robert Hryniak6:17 AM (1 hour ago)
to

Dr. William Makis MD has tracked THIRTEEN Canadian doctors that have suddenly died :

UPDATE on Canadian doctors “dying suddenly”

I’ve now tracked 13 Canadian doctors “sudden deaths” (thank you to everyone who contributed info). This is the most complete data set I’ve seen anywhere by far.

Three doctors died while exercising (two swimming, one running), two of them were very high level athletes. Three doctors died “in their sleep” unexpectedly.

Two doctors also had aggressive cancer that had arisen within the past year.

All of them were at least triple vaccinated due to illegal vaccine mandates.

Remember: these are YOUNG healthy individuals who are always first in line to get jabbed. Vast majority of doctors will get their 4th and 5th jabs this summer and fall.

Sadly, I expect many more deaths to come.

END

The COVID-19 mRNA “Vaccines” cause Cancer; here’s the evidence… – The Expose

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:58 AM (1 hour ago)
to

Japan: Herzinfarkte nehmen stark zu, Versicherer reagieren

Inbox

Robert Hryniak6:38 AM (1 hour ago)
to

Seems triple jabs put people over ..  with rising deaths will come a severe labor shortage unlike anything seen affecting everyone.. insurers are on borrowed time before payouts .. although they will find a way to skate

https://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/521198/Japan-Ploetzlicher-massiver-Anstieg-von-Herzinfarkten-verzeichnet

end

MICHAEL EVERY

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Oil Spikes As Ukraine Operator Halts Some Russian Pipeline Flows

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 07:00 AM

Crude oil prices are higher this morning after reports that Russian oil flows via the southern leg of a major pipeline were suspended.

Ukrtransnafta, which operates Ukraine’s oil pipeline network and transits crude via the southern leg of the Druzhba link, halted Russian crude deliveries on Aug. 4, Transneft said in a statement on Tuesday.

This means flows to the Druzhba pipeline toward Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are halted.

According to a spokesman for the country’s crude pipeline operator Transneft, EU sanctions are preventing Russia’s transit payment.

Flows via the northern leg of the link to Poland and Germany are unaffected.

The reaction is notable but not extreme for now, with WTI reversing overnight losses down to $89 and heading back towards $92…

“The market reaction tells you the fragility of the fundamentals remains acute,” said Harry Altham, an analyst at brokerage StoneX.

Transneft is reportedly working on alternative options to transfer the funds, according to the statement.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0221 UP  0.0023 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL MIXED 

USA/ YEN 134.97   UP 0.138 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2100 UP   0.0016

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 10.50 POINTS UP 0.22%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 42.33 PTS OR 0.21% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.26%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 42.33 PTS OR  0.21% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.50 PTS UP 0.32% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.26% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 249.28 OR 0.88%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1791,05

silver:$20.63

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 106.08  DOWN 25  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.94% UP 3  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.164% UP 0     AND 3/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.95%// DOWN 4   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.05  UP 2   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.9215% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0228  UP  .0021   or 21 basis points

USA/Japan: 134.93 UP 0.94  OR YEN DOWN 9  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2089  UP  0.0065 OR  65 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0024 OR 24 BASIS pts  to 1.2863

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7526  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7538

TURKISH LIRA:  17.89  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.164

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2  IN basis points from MONDAY at  2.779% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   2.991 UP 0  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 106.03 DOWN 30   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 5,78 PTS OR  0.08%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 152,72  POINTS OR 1.12%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 34.44 PTS OR 0.53% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 39,40 OR 0.43%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 239.45 PTS OR  1.05%

WTI Oil price 90.30  12: EST

Brent Oil:  96,28 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  60.14  UP 0  AND 61/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.9215

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0209 UP .0012     OR  12 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2072 DOWN .0013  or  13 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 135.13  UP 0.291//YEN DOWN 29 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2882 UP 0.0033 (CDN dollar DOWN 33  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 90.80

Brent OIL:  96.40

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.794 UP 3 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.005  UP 1  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.91

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.15   UP 0 AND   61/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 58.12 PTS OR 0.18 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 151,00 PTS OR 1.15%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 21.78 UP 0.49 PTS (2.30)%

GLD: $167.20 UP $0.51 OR 0.31%

SLV/ $18.93 DOWN 10 CENTS OR 0.53%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks & Bonds Tumble As Rate-Hike Odds Rise

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Higher than expected labor costs and the corresponding tumble in productivity prompted  combination of recession fears and inflation anxiety with the market pricing in more tightening in the short-term and then more easing after the recession hits…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably the Q1 rate-cut expectations are fading, notably almost back to zero probability of the cut…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks did not like that and long-duration Nasdaq stocks sank notably with Small Caps worst on the day. The Dow was the least ugly horse

Treasuries were all sold today, reversing Monday’s gains with both 10Y and 30Y remaining lower in yield on the week. Today saw the short-end underperform (2Y +7bps, 30Y +2bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably all yields are still higher from Friday’s payrolls print.

The yield curve flattened significantly with 2s10s trading as inverted as -49bps….

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended unchanged after some early weakness (testing down to pre-payrolls levels) was reversed…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto slipped lower on the day with bitcoin testing down to $23k…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold pushed back above $1800 today…

Oil ended very marginally lower after testing above $92…

Finally, US retail pump prices fell to 5 month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

And while President Biden’s approval rating has bounced, it remains notably divergent from gas prices.

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

ii) USA DATA//

US Housing Inventory Grows At Record Pace As Buyers Slow Down; Shiller Warns Of ‘Heightened Risks’

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 11:50 AM

The number of houses sitting on the market grew at a blistering pace last month, with the number of active listings jumping 31% vs. the same period last year – a record-high increase for a third straight month, Bloomberg reports, citing a Tuesday report from Realtor.com.

The sharp slowdown in activity suggests that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb inflation through rate hikes have had a dramatic effect on the pandemic housing frenzy, as higher borrowing costs have sidelined many would-be buyers. Sellers, consequently, have responded by trimming prices to compete.

“With inventories increasing, buyers will have more negotiating power,” according to Realtor.com chief economist, Danielle Hale. “The two years of a market heavily tipped in favor of sellers appears to be in the rearview mirror.”

That said, inventories are still lower than they were pre-pandemic, while the median list price remained 17% higher in July than a year earlier.

Inventory has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. And even as options increase, competition for homes remains strong, keeping prices elevated. The nationwide median list price in July was $449,000, up 17% from a year earlier and close to the all-time high reached in June. The affordability crunch and remote-work policies have been pushing some people to relocate to less-expensive areas.

New listings last month contracted for the first time since March, down 2.8% from a year earlier, suggesting some owners are reconsidering their plans to list with the market shift. -Bloomberg

Bloomberg also reports that homebuilders have found themselves stuck with too many houses has demand has cooled.

There’s a bit of pressure on us,” said Kevin Brown, a realtor who deals in new homes. “Builders have got to hit goals and make their profit, and they don’t like inventory just sitting on the ground.”

This year’s surge in mortgage rates tossed buyers to the sidelines. The waitlists for new houses are gone. And new-home sellers such as Kevin Brown, who works just south of Houston, are on the front lines of a massive shift. 

An abrupt halt to the pandemic housing boom has left builders that started construction months ago scrambling to adapt. The US supply of new homes relative to sales in June was the highest since the midst of the last crash in 2010. And by early July, buyer traffic to homebuilder websites and sales offices had plunged to the lowest level for the month since 2012, according to a survey of builder sentiment from the National Association of Home Builders.

In June, there were 824,000 single-family homes under construction in the US – more than at any time since October 2006, according to the NAHB. Unsold inventory has ballooned, partially as a result of supply-chain disruptions and labor constraints.

“It has become a very competitive market for builders where they are trying to offload any standing inventory,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, which tracks new-home production. “We may see a period where supply may actually exceed demand for a while in some of the markets that were the most feverish over the past two years.”

Shiller chimes in

According to economist Robert Shiller, who predicted the 2008 housing bubble, the US housing market is headed for trouble.

Home prices haven’t fallen since the 2007–09 recession. Right now things look almost as bad,” he said. “Existing home sales are down. Permits are down. A lot of signs that we’ll see something. It may not be catastrophic, but it’s time to consider that.”

He added that a drop on home prices is more likely than not.

“The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has a futures market for home prices…That’s in backwardation now; [home] prices are expected to fall by something a little over 10% by 2024 or 2025. That’s a good estimate,” he told Yahoo Finance. “The risks are heightened right now for buying a house.”

end

Not good for the economy!

U.S. productivity tumbles again in second quarter, labor costs up strongly

Aug. 9, 2022 at 8:43 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Productivity down 4.6% rate in second quarter after revised 7.4% plunge in prior three months

The numbers: U.S. nonfarm worker productivity fell at a 4.6% annual clip in the second quarter, the government said Tuesday.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had projected a 4.3% decline.

This is the second straight decline quarterly decline in productivity, which measures output per hour. In the first quarter, productivity fell at a steep 7.4% rate, the largest decline in 75 years.

Over the past 12 months, U.S. productivity fell at a record 2.5% rate.

Key details: Workers worked more and produced less in the second quarter. Hours worked ran a 2.6% rate in the second quarter, down from a 5.3% rate in first quarter.

Output in the second quarter fell at a 2.1% rate after a 2.5% decline in the first three months of the year.

Unit-labor costs, a key measure of wages, jumped at 10.6% rate down only slightly from a revised 12.8% rate in the first quarter

Year-over-year unit labor costs rose 9.5% in the second quarter up from a robust 8.2% gain in the first quarter.

Big picture: Productivity is hard to measure in normal times, so economists are wary of the data in the post- pandemic era. Still, economists are troubled because productivity low productivity leads to a host of bad outcomes – higher inflation, lower worker wage growth and a slower economy, said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iii)a.  USA economic stories

The big story that began last night at 6 pm:  FBI raid Trumps Mar a Lago. It makes no sense, Trump is certainly allowed to have in his possession classified documents.  He can instantly de classify them

if he wishes.

Very political

(zerohedge)

DeSantis Slams ‘Weaponized Federal Agencies’ For Raid On Trump’s Mar-A-Lago

MONDAY, AUG 08, 2022 – 07:08 PM

Update (2053ET): Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) came out with a blistering response to the Monday FBI raid on former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, reportedly in connection with materials Trump brought with him after leaving office.

“The raid of MAL is another escalation in the weaponization of federal agencies against the Regime’s political opponents, while people like Hunter Biden get treated with kid gloves,” said DeSantis. “Now the Regime is getting another 87k IRS agents to wield against its adversaries? Banana Republic.”

Trump supporters have begun gathering outside Mar-a-Lago.

*  *  *

Moments ago, Donald Trump – who is still banned by Twitter – published a statement on Truth Social in which he said that his Florida home, Mar A Lago is “currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents“, an assault which according to Trump “could only take place in broken, Third-World Countries.” He is probably right. He also claims the Fed’s presence was unannounced and the reason was politically motivated.

His full statement posted on his Truth Social account is below:

Statement by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the

United States of America

These are dark times for our Nation, as my beautiful home, Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents. Nothing like this has ever happened to a President of the United States before. After working and cooperating with the relevant Government agencies, this unannounced raid on my home was not necessary or appropriate. It is prosecutorial misconduct, the weaponization of the Justice System, and an attack by Radical Left Democrats who desperately don’t want me to run for President in 2024, especially based on recent polls, and who will likewise do anything to stop Republicans and Conservatives in the upcoming Midterm Elections. Such an assault could only take place in broken, Third-World Countries. Sadly, America has now become one of those Countries, corrupt at a level not seen before. They even broke into my safe! What is the difference between this and Watergate, where operatives broke into the Democrat National Committee? Here, in reverse, Democrats broke into the home of the 45th President of the United States.

The political persecution of President Donald J. Trump has been going on for years, with the now fully debunked Russia, Russia, Russia Scam, Impeachment Hoax #1, Impeachment Hoax #2, and so much more, it just never ends. It is political targeting at the highest level!

Hillary Clinton was allowed to delete and acid wash 33,000 E-mails AFTER they were subpoenaed by Congress. Absolutely nothing has happened to hold her accountable. She even took antique furniture, and other items from the White House.

I stood up to America’s bureaucratic corruption, I restored power to the people, and truly delivered for our Country, like we have never seen before. The establishment hated it. Now, as they watch my endorsed candidates win big victories, and see my dominance in all polls, they are trying to stop me, and the Republican Party, once more. The lawlessness, political persecution, and Witch Hunt must be exposed and stopped.

I will continue to fight for the Great American People!

Local reporters confirmed the raid, saying the FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago. “They just left,” although it isn’t clear what the search was about.

Social media was predictably full of kneejerk reactions.

According to the New York Times:

The search, according to two people familiar with the investigation, appeared to be focused on material that Mr. Trump had brought with him to Mar-a-Lago, his private club and residence, after he left the White House. Those boxes contained many pages of classified documents, according to a person familiar with their contents.

Mr. Trump delayed returning 15 boxes of material requested by officials with the National Archives for many months, only doing so when there became a threat of action being taken to retrieve them.

As Techno Fog notes, the politics of the search can’t be ignored. If the New York Times is to be believed, Trump’s purported crime – the delay of returning materials – could have been resolved in another manner not involving raiding his home and breaking open a personal safe. No doubt the search is an escalation by a desperate Regime confronted by their own failures at home and abroad.

This doesn’t necessarily mean there wasn’t another reason for the search. Could it have to do with the DOJ’s ongoing January 6 probe (although, given the politicization of Biden’s DOJ, that is no guarantee)? Maybe not, but it might be too soon to tell. Last week there was reporting that a federal grand jury investigating January 6 had issued subpoenas to the Trump White House Counsel, Pat Cipollone, and his top deputy, Patrick Philbin.

According to the author, it is possible that the roadmap for the DOJ comes from the January 6 Committee, “which has poured out the thin gruel of purported criminal charges against Trump, alleging he and others, including attorney John Eastman, could be charged with”:

  1. Obstruction of an Official Proceeding (18 USC 1512(c)(2)); and
  2. Conspiracy to Defraud the United States (18 USC 371).

Each of these counts, as well as the DOJ’s pursuit of Trump and his attorneys and advisors, amounts to the criminalization of politics, or as Technofog puts it, “arguments of law that might fail in the courts are now prosecutable offenses. Attempts to delay a vote count based on novel, and not corrupt, interpretations of the law can put you in prison. Issues surrounding the counting of state results or whether the Vice President can refuse to count electoral votes is a matter to be decided through the civil or political process, not through charges brought by vindictive opponents.”

Meanwhile, we are still waiting for an official comment:

end

“Enough!” – House GOP Pledges Investigation Of DoJ With November Win After FBI Raids Trump’s Mar-A-Lago

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 07:25 AM

Authored by Gary Bai via The Epoch Times,

House GOP leaders have pledged to take action on the “weaponized politicization” of the Department of Justice (DOJ) “when Republicans take back the House” in the midterm elections, after federal agents raided former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property on Monday.

“I’ve seen enough,” House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in a statement late Monday. “The Department of Justice has reached an intolerable state of weaponized politicization.”

“When Republicans take back the House, we will conduct immediate oversight of this department, follow the facts, and leave no stone unturned,” McCarthy added.

“Attorney General Garland: preserve your documents and clear your calendar,” McCarthy said.

McCarthy’s comment came after the FBI raided Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property on Monday. Trump has characterized the raid as “prosecutorial misconduct, the weaponization of the Justice System, and an attack by Radical left Democrats who desperately don’t want [him] to run for President in 2024.”

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Ranking Member on the House Judiciary Committee, which provides oversight over the DOJ, called on House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) to bring FBI Director Christopher Wray and Attorney General Merrick Garland onto the House floor for questioning on Friday.

What was on the warrant? What were you really doing? What were you looking for? Why not talk to President Trump and have him give the information you’re after?” Jordan asked in an interview with Fox on Monday night.

“We deserve answers now, and this Friday would be a good time.”

“Jerry Nadler: call up Christopher Wray, call up Merrick Garland, bring them in front of the House Judiciary Committee, so we ask them the questions that the American people deserve the answers to.”

Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), House Minority Whip, called the raid the “weaponization of the FBI by Biden’s DOJ against his political opponent.”

“Let’s be clear: This is a brazen weaponization of the FBI by Biden’s DOJ against his political opponent—while giving their political allies free passes,” Scalise said in a statement published late Monday.

“It’s exactly why the IRS shouldn’t get an army of 87,000 more agents.”

“House Republicans will hold them accountable next year,” the lawmaker added.

Rep. Stefanik, chair of the House Republican Conference, called Monday “a dark day in American history” and said that the “political weaponization of the FBI and Department of Justice is an actual threat to democracy.”

“There is a reason that Americans no longer trust these agencies,” Stefanik said in a Monday statement. “This is the same corrupt agency that illegally fabricated FISA warrants, knowingly deceived Americans about Russian ‘collusion’ for years, and weaponized itself to perpetuate this hoax with their all-too-eager mainstream media accomplices.”

“There must be an immediate investigation and accountability into Joe Biden and his Administration’s weaponizing this department against their political opponents—the likely 2024 Republican candidate for President of the United States,” the congresswoman added.

Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), vice chair of the House Republican Conference and a part of Trump’s legal defense team during the Democrats’ 2019 attempted impeachment of Trump, said Biden and Garland “completely weaponized the DOJ” and “eroded the people’s faith in our system of justice.”

“Today’s raid on the former President’s home in the middle of an election season looks like another egregious & unprecedented abuse of power,” Johnson said in a statement on Monday.

“We will restore order & accountability as soon as we regain the gavels for a Republican majority in November. It can’t happen soon enough!” he added.

Read more here…

end

“The FBI Is Corrupt”: Mark Levin Goes Nuclear Over Trump Raid, Slams ‘Silent’ GOP Leadership

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 10:30 AM

Fox News host Mark Levin went nuclear on Monday night in response to the FBI raid on Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence on Monday, reportedly in connection with documents that the former president took home after leaving office in 2021.

This was well orchestrated, so this has been going on for weeks,” Levin told host Sean Hannity. “Now, you keep asking your guests, what’s the justification? There is no justification. What’s he going to say tomorrow, the attorney general? Here’s my guess: ‘We’ve been negotiating with Trump and his lawyers since February when we found out they had this information. We were getting nowhere, and then we know or we heard that some documents were being destroyed.”

Levin also noted that photos shared by New York Times columnist Maggie Haberman purporting to show official documents with Trump’s handwriting on them in White House toilets.

(Except… it isn’t Trump’s handwriting)

“There is no justification for sending 30 friggin’ FBI agents to the former president’s compound in Mar-a-Lago in early morning and conducting themselves this way or in any other cases in which they’ve done exactly the same thing,” Levin continued, adding “The FBI is corrupt.

Levin called it “the worst attack on this republic in modern history,” before slamming GOP leadership. (h/t Mediaite)

This is the worst attack on this republic in modern history. Period,” he said. “And it’s not just an attack on Donald Trump. It’s an attack on everybody who supports him. It’s an attack on anybody who dares to raise serious questions about Washington, D.C., and the establishment in both parties. I haven’t heard a damn thing from the Republican leadership in the Senate! Have you? Not one of those guys has put out a statement. Because they’re weak. That’s why.”

END

GOP Warns Thousands Of New IRS Agents Will Target Middle-Class Americans

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 12:10 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Republicans say a Democrat-backed bill worth $740 billion includes funding to hire 87,000 new Internal Revenue Service (IRS) agents, which they say will target Americans.

The bill, known as the “Inflation Reduction Act,” was approved in a 51–50 vote as Vice President Kamala Harris served as a tie-breaker for Democrats. A provision includes the hiring of 87,000 agents, a move that was defended by Democrats, who said that the funding would target people who cheat on their taxes.

“Millions of Americans aren’t going to be impacted by that other than getting better service from the IRS having their telephone answer getting the questions they need in order to comply with our tax laws,” Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) told Fox News on Sunday. “The auditing is going to be focused on those of high income, the large corporations, etc.

Meanwhile, Democrats have pointed to a May report from the Government Accountability Office showing that IRS audits have dropped over the past decade, including audits for the wealthy.

In a recent letter to Congress, IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig said that if an additional $80 billion is given to the agency via the legislation, it would not increase audits for households that earn less than $400,000 per year.

“These resources are absolutely not about increasing audit scrutiny on small businesses or middle-income Americans,” Retting wrote in the letter. “As we have been planning, our investment of these enforcement resources is designed around Treasury’s directive that audit rates will not rise relative to recent years for households making under $400,000.”

Warning

But Republicans warned that the IRS will target middle-class Americans with the tens of thousands of extra agents.

Seriously, how out of touch do you have to be to brag about forcing a purely partisan bill through the Senate that raises taxes on the middle class, makes inflation worse, lowers after-tax income for Americans at every income level, decreases economic growth during a recession, and sends an army of IRS enforcers after grandma?” Republican National Committee spokesman Tommy Pigott asked, according to the Washington Examiner.

And Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said that those agents will “target Americans with 1.2 million new audits, more than half of which would be for people making less than $75,000 a year.”

This bill is a give-away to the Democrats’ radical leftist base at the expense of middle-class Americans. It’s a betrayal of President Biden’s promise to not raise taxes on the middle class. Make no mistake—this bill will hurt America and hardworking Americans at a time when we can least afford it,” Cruz wrote.

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, disputed Democrat claims that the new funding will be used to target tax cheats and millionaires.

“My colleagues claim this massive funding boost will allow the IRS to go after millionaires, billionaires and so-called rich ‘tax cheats,’ but the reality is a significant portion raised from their IRS funding bloat would come from taxpayers with income below $400,000,” he said in a statement Sunday.

Read more here…

END

Tom Luongo…

Economic Reduction & Inflation Expansion – Everything’s Out-Of-Stock & Nothing Is Cheaper

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 09:35 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

“I was into pain reduction and mind expansion, but what I’ve ended up with is pain expansion and mind reduction. Everything hurts now, and nothing makes sense.

– CARRIE FISHER, POSTCARDS FROM THE EDGE

So, Davos finally got the mini-me version of Build Back Better through a deeply divided Senate over the weekend. It’s a terrible bill and will be a worse law, but at least it’s only about 12% of the original cost.

I guess it’s true what they say, the US must be broke, even new layers of tyranny are cut-rate at this point.

Whatever happened to dreaming big?

It’s all you can do now but to laugh, right? Nothing in D.C. is what it seems, like having lawmakers who work for Americans and the betterment of America. While this has been clear to me for what feels like my entire life, there is still real resistance to this concept.

No, folks, Chuck Schumer doesn’t work for you. He doesn’t work for Wall St. (except when the pay him) and he doesn’t work for the labor unions or anyone else. He works for globalists and foreign actors whose raison d’etre is the destruction of your life and your family’s future.

That’s what this bill is intended and will do when finally enacted.

I was asked by Sputnik News to comment on this last week and the article is now out in the world. The main point of this is the one I’ve been making for more than a year now about Build Back Better, as blackmail to the Fed:

“This bill is another lame attempt by Democrats to force the Fed to stop raising interest rates by saddling them with new spending which it would have to monetize, similar to last year’s Build Back Better,” argued financial and political commentator Tom Luongo.

“What this is is pure pre-midterm electioneering. The Democrats need something to campaign on.”

Thankfully it’s so small that a few billion in spending next year isn’t going to change much. But what will change is that the Democrats and their Davos paymasters have finally gotten two things they were desperate to saddle the U.S. economy with:

  1. 80,000 more IRS agents to increase tax compliance
  2. 15% effective minimum corporate tax rate

Davos’ obsession is with tax normalization. They want everyone taxed like they tax the French and the Swedes.

And then they want 100% compliance through Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) where there is no escape from their 24/7/365 surveillance. The US needs to be brought in line to pay its ‘fair-share’ of the Climate Change crisis.

The sad truth is that too many people in this world actually believe this utter bullshit.

Beyond the creeping and creepy Marxism in all of this is the inherent problem with this model for a society. Innovation comes from capital fluidity and flexibility. It is the ability of people to adapt quickly to changes in their environment that leads to prosperity and growth, not distributing resources on an arbitrary definition of equality.

That system’s inherent tend towards entropy leads to where we are today, insane marginal tax rates subsidizing people who vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. To remind everyone, in Marxist-like reductionist terms, if there are only two classes of people, as Murray Rothbard pointed out, those two classes are tax payers and tax consumers. Once the system turns this predatory where it needs a majority of tax consumers to survive off the tax payers all productivity eventually stops, looting via corruption is maximized and the only ones making ‘bank’ are the enforcers and the ‘corpse-feeders.’

… until the whole engine of the economy stops cold. But, truly I’m not invoking Ayn Rand here.

The belief that we can push this dead whale of an idea, communism, much farther up the beach isn’t reaching critical breakout mass, it’s reaching its mathematical limit.

What’s clearly going on here is that the Democrats needed a win to go into the mid-terms with to shore up their base. At the same time GOP establishment was more than happy to ‘oppose’ it to fuel their election strategy and fundraising while vowing to try and repeal it (which they can’t) when they gain control of the country post mid-terms.

This bill will do nothing to alleviate shortages and supply chain disruptions caused by COVID lockdowns, Biden’s executive orders and ESG/DEI arm-twisting of companies to ‘get woke.’ While they’ve engineered a recession, you’d swear their allergy to saying the word would lead to summoning an Elder God because this is some Lovecraftian nightmare world.

Oh. Wait.

They’ll be happy to summon that image up after they can blame things on the GOP, at least that’s what Schumer is thinking. The issue is that you can’t solve cost-push inflation with raising interest rates. But, at the same time, have zero cost-of-capital in the US doesn’t fix anything that’s broken either.

So, after this brief interruption, while we have a bustlet after a massive boom in commodity prices, expect things to get worse for the average tax payer going forward as real-world inflation will continue while Pelosi, Schumer and the rest of the aliens on Capitol Hill assuring us they are still our friends, restrict our choices and make us feel guilty for still breathing.

The real solution is the one they will never contemplate — cutting taxes and regulation. No, the answer is never more freedom, it’s that we still have too much of it. And there is no changing that dynamic as long as our lawmakers are beholden to the control freaks who have already engineered a world where 75% marginal tax rates are not enough.

Stepping back from this particular issue, it’s incumbent to see it in the larger overall strategy of turning the US government even more into the enemy of the people in order to foment civil unrest, if not outright civil war, as a consequence for our unwillingness to eet ze bugz.

You know this is all just unsustainable commie claptrap when you see subsidies for rich people to buy $80,000 electric cars. We really are dealing with people who have no idea how capital formation works or why any of their perceived ‘successes’ were just them piggy-backing on trends that were already emergent in the market before they got involved.

My full answers to Sputnik’s questions are below the line:

Could this proposed plan help the US economy?

No.  This bill is another lame attempt by Democrats to force the Fed to stop raising interest rates by saddling them with new spending which it would have to monetize, similar to last year’s Build Back Better.

What this is is pure pre-midterm electioneering.  The Democrats need something to campaign on.  The GOP will mostly allow it to progress to also have something to campaign against.

To what extent would the additional flow of money help tackle inflation?

It won’t.  It will do the opposite, obviously.  There is no need for this bill.  What is needed is for Congress to stop spending money it doesn’t have on programs the US doesn’t need.  Moreover, Schumer is lying about who will pay for this.  They want to tax the rich to play to their base, nothing more.

But raising taxes in a recession is a recipe for making the recession worse, not better. And no amount of jawboning will change that. 

How could this proposed plan worsen the recession?

You cannot tax your way to prosperity.  Period.  Closing the carried interest ‘loophole,’ for example makes for good rhetoric but it just means that that money will flee the US and find a home somewhere else.  Capital flows to where it is treated best, so if you raise the tax rate on one class of people and they move the money out of the country then you are left with the spending mandated but without the revenue you thought you’d generate.

More spending, less taxes equals the burdens being placed on those left to pay the bills. They always sell this idea with every one of these bills and it never works out.

The best way to raise tax revenue is to lower taxes, remove the roadblocks to growth and allow the market to find new efficiencies to drive costs down, not subsidize prices, be they prescription drugs or anything else.

The White House is continuously saying that the US economy is good and that there is no recession; what is your prognosis with regard to this? What do the facts and numbers tell us?

If the economy is so good, why do we need this bill?  The answer is we don’t. So, the White House messaging is already confused.

The US needs a reorganization of how capital is handled domestically.  Recessions are a reflection of the need for that reorganization through the liquidation of uneconomic spending.

Spending growth is attenuating because high food and energy prices are squeezing household budgets.  As opposed to handing out free money printed out of thin air, creating a bigger debt burden for the future, they should be lifting the controls currently in place creating the shortages leading to higher prices.

What is the way out of this crisis for the US, and is the US government doing enough to tackle the problems?

The way out of this situation for the US is to raise the cost of capital, which the Fed is doing through raising interest rates and force fiscal discipline on Congress by curbing their ability to run deficits while simultaneously lowering taxes at all levels especially on small businesses and wealth preservation. 

This means an ideological shift away from the technocratic ideal that we can socially engineer a better society through the tax code.   We’ve tried this all across the West.  It has failed and led to where we are today.

The problem isn’t that the government isn’t doing enough it is that the government is doing orders of magnitude too much already.  The Democrats (and their international backers) understand that the mid-terms are a referendum on this idea and are trying to hold onto what they can by giving people free money.  Same as it ever was.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you have friends who aren’t aliens.

end

iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues

SWAMP STORIES

end

King report

The King Report August 9, 2022 Issue 6816Independent View of the NewsFBI executes search warrant at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago (Dems cross the Rubicon; the republic is gone!)
https://kion546.com/news/2022/08/08/fbi-executes-search-warrant-at-trumps-mar-a-lago/
 
Trump, in a lengthy statement, says the FBI (30 agents) executed a raid on Mar-a-Lago today:
“These are dark times for our Nation, as my beautiful home at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents Nothing like this has ever happened to a President of the United States before… It is prosecutorial misconduct, the weaponization of the Justice System, and an attack by Radical Left Democrats who desperately don’t want me to run for President in 2024… They even broke into my safe!… Hillary Clinton was allowed to delete and acid wash 33,000 emails after they were subpoenaed by Congress…”  (DJT was in NYC at the time.) https://twitter.com/ShelbyTalcott/status/1556776806090514433/photo/1
 
NYT: “Trump delayed returning 15 boxes of material requested by officials with the National Archives for many months, only doing so when there became a threat of action being taken to retrieve them…”
(Sandy Berger, Comey, and the Clintons did similar things without incident!)
 
Fox reports FBI agents indiscriminately confiscated boxes of documents without reviewing them.
 
@greg_price11: This is an actual threat to democracy. Weaponizing law enforcement against political enemies of the people in power is something that happens in third world countries. The FBI is nothing more than the brownshirts of the Biden regime and all they want is to stop Trump from running
 
The abhorrently political raid on Trump, just 3 months before an election, is stupefying and indicates the DoJ will indict DJT.  The FBI and DoJ, already reeling under charges of being politically weaponized, has bestowed a ginormous gift on the GOP.  The raid will enrage and energize GOP voters – especially given what the Clintons, Team Obama, and the Bidens have done with impunity!
 
@Cernovich: Democrats don’t care about optics. They are willing to sacrifice the legitimacy of the courts to settle a blood feud. Can’t say it won’t work. DC judges are all in on it now.
 
Apple warns suppliers to follow China rules on ‘Taiwan’ labeling (Are people paying attention?)
Apple has asked suppliers to ensure that shipments from Taiwan to China strictly comply with Chinese customs regulations after a recent visit by senior U.S. lawmaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei…
    Apple told suppliers on Friday that China has started strictly enforcing a long-standing rule that Taiwanese-made parts and components must be labeled as being made either in “Taiwan, China” or “Chinese Taipei,”…  Apple’s warning comes after shipments from Taiwan to one of iPhone assembler Pegatron’s facilities in China were held for review on Thursday to see if the import declaration form or cartons are labeled with “Taiwan” or “Republic of China.”…
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supply-Chain/Apple-warns-suppliers-to-follow-China-rules-on-Taiwan-labeling
 
@ShelbyTalcott: Biden, asked about China’s ongoing response to Pelosi’s Taiwan trip, says: “I’m not worried, but I’m concerned that they’re moving as much as they are. But I don’t they’re going to do anything more than they are.” Biden adds that Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was her decision.
 
Nancy Pelosi’s Childlike Diplomacy Mirrors America’s Childlike Posture Toward China
The internal administration discord reminded the Chinese that the Biden Administration can still become even more inept than it has been since its inaugural humiliation in Anchorage, Alaska… Pelosi showboated with loud freedom rhetoric while carrying a mere twig…
    Unfortunately, such Pentagon appeasement of China was also not new. Nearly two years ago, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley freelanced by calling up his Chinese Communist counterpart to promise he would warn the People’s Liberation Army should his (supposedly neo-isolationist) commander-in-chief seem too impulsive or mentally challenged and thus prone to become preemptive.
    Milley’s likely illegal and unhinged gambit (or, to quote Talleyrand, “It was worse than a crime; it was a blunder”) likewise probably convinced the Chinese the Pentagon was suicidal rather than mercurial…
https://amgreatness.com/2022/08/07/nancy-pelosis-childlike-diplomacy-mirrors-americas-childlike-posture-toward-china/
 
ECB injects billions of euros into weaker eurozone debt markets (Just 2 weeks after hiking rates!)
Between June and July, the ECB injected €17bn into Italian, Spanish and Greek markets, while allowing its portfolio of German, Dutch and French debt to fall by €18bn…    
https://www.ft.com/content/b53f2254-9409-432a-9755-62c621e3f552
 
Nvidia Stock Tanks After Graphics-Chip Maker Warns of Weak Gaming Sales
Sales of $6.7 billion for its quarter ended July 31. It previously had forecast sales of $8.1 billion… It will announce official results on Aug. 24.  Gaming revenue was $2.04 billion, down 33% from the prior year. Data center revenue was $3.81 billion, up 61% from the prior year. Total sales rose 3% from the same quarter last year, Nvidia said in a press release… Second-quarter results will include about $1.32 billion of charges, primarily for inventory and related expenses…  (Pelosis sold all their Nvidia on July 27!)
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-stock-falls-as-graphics-chip-maker-warns-of-weak-gaming-sales/
 
Retail traders have returned to hyper-speculating in equities!  The guppies ignored the negative fundamentals and drove purported professionals into equities.  Even Nvidia’s warnings on Q2 revenue could not dissuade the usual suspects from buying Fangs and related trading sardines. 
 
Meme stocks and trading sardines soared on Monday.  GME and AMC were halted due to volatility.  GameStop soared as much as 17% and is +147% from its May low! AMC jumped as much as 24% and is +183.5% from its May low!  Hapless Jerome Powell really screwed up this time!
 
The feverish guppy buying generated more short covering by hedge funds and CTAs.
 
Monday’s King Report: Today looks to be a contest between traders buying stuff due to momentum and conditioned behavior vs several negative fundamentals.
 
@MichaelAArouet: Market cap of stocks with Price/Sales ratio > 10x went down from 14T$ to about 4T$ just to rally to 8T$ againDifferent than the bursting of the dotcom bubble which permanently moved valuations to reasonable levels (Powell reflated the bubble!)  Chart @KailashConcepts
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1556608410610814984
    Despite all the wreckage in the markets, there are still 571 stocks priced over 10x P/S.
 
ESUs traded in negative territory during Asian trading.  They rallied sharply into the European open, but quickly retreated until a moderate rally appeared before the US repo market opened at 7 ET.  The rally ended at 9 ET on the Nvidia news.  ESUs sank 17 handles.
 
When the NYSE opened, traders of various classes poured into ESUs and trading sardines.  ESUs hit a daily high of 4188.00 at 10:02 ET.  ESUs and stocks then rolled over until a tumble commenced at 11:09 ET.  Nasdaq turned negative at 12:17 ET, erasing a 1.4% gain.  A bottom appeared at 11:44 ET when ESUs hit flat for the day, -41.25 from the high.  The ensuing rebound rally ended at noon ET.  The 15-handle ESU bounce turned into a 26.75 drop.  ESU hit -11.75 for the day and -53.00 from the high.  A modest A-B-C rally developed.  It ended at 13:16 ET.
 
ESUs and stocks retreated until they got near NYSE session lows.  Trading then went inert.  A breakdown at this point would trigger new daily lows and create a reversal day.  ESUs and stocks hit new daily lows at 14:53 ET.  The last-hour manipulation commenced on schedule.  The 15-handle manipulation ended at 15:44 ET.  ESUs and stocks then went listless and eased a tad lower into the close.
 
The 2-10 yield curve inversion hit 46.4bps near the NYSE close.  USUs were + 1 11/16 at the time.  The dollar was down moderately; energy commodities and precious metals were sharply higher.
 
@OccupytheFeds: The @NewYorkFed is responsible for implementing @federalreserve policy & TRILLIONS in asset purchases. It has not released minutes for MORE THAN 1 YEAR (June 2021). Quite the “minimum of a six-month lag” eh?  https://newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/disclosures
 
US to send additional $4.5 billion to Ukraine for budget needs – Reuters
US Defense Department Announced $1 Billion in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
 
@LucasFoxNews: Pentagon including Claymore mines in new $1 billion arms shipment to Ukraine on same day British intelligence says Russia deploying butterfly mines in Donbas.
 
DeSantis aide @ChristinaPushaw: This isn’t about paying Ukraine or Zelensky at allMost of these billions will end up in the DC swamp and with the Big Guy. We are ruled by an organized crime ring.
 
@charliekirk11: 87,000 new IRS Enforcement Agents to audit the American Middle Class but don’t you dare ask the government for an accurate accounting of how $60 Billion US Tax Dollars are being spent by Ukrainian Neo-Nazis and Volodymyr Zelensky
 
@CBSNews: We removed a tweet promoting our recent doc, “Arming Ukraine,” which quoted the founder of the nonprofit Blue-Yellow, Jonas Ohman’s assessment in late April that only around 30% of aid was reaching the front lines in Ukraine.  (Who pressured The Tiffany of Networks to retract?)
 
CBS Censors Own Documentary After Ukraine Outraged: ‘30% Of US Weapons Gone Missing’
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/cbs-censors-own-documentary-after-ukraine-outraged-30-us-weapons-gone-missing
 
@RNCResearch: CNBC reporter: “Is the president guaranteeing nobody making under $400,000 will be audited.”  Biden Economic Advisor Jared Bernstein: “No, no, no. no, that’s not what I said.”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1556673784492564484
 
Automakers say U.S. Senate bill will jeopardize 2030 EV targets
The EV tax credit requirements will make most vehicles immediately ineligible for the incentive… will also jeopardize our collective target of 40-50% electric vehicle sales by 2030.”…   https://t.co/54eWEd1DLD
 
Biden says ‘inflation’ bill funds healthcare, ‘God knows what else’ in bizarre speech https://trib.al/SKCr4rV
 
@townhallcom: BIDEN (in KY): “We have the capacity to do this.  It’s not like it’s beyond our control. The weather may be beyond our control for now, but it’s not beyond our control.”  https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1556716038510809088
 
@RealMacReport: Joe Biden is still sick – maskless and repeatedly coughing.
https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1556701187025637377
 
Reportedly, The Big Guy will head to South Carolina tomorrow for a week of R&R.
 
Biden tries to get his coat on and can’t. His wife has to come to his rescue… his glasses fall off… This is so embarrassing.  https://notthebee.com/article/watch-this-embarrassing-clip-of-biden-struggling-and-failing-to-get-his-coat-on-the-man-is-gone
 
Positive aspects of previous session
ESUs and stock bounce early in the US – same old, same old
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Energy commodities rand precious metals rallied sharply
Bonds rallied, inverting the 2-10 even more
An equity reversal appeared after the morning rally in the US
Meme stocks and Fangs are bubbling anew thanks to Jerome
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Was Monday an important Reversal Day for equities?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: UpLast Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4151.88
Previous session High/Low4186.62; 4128.97
 
School districts sour on mask mandates amid legal scrutiny, research questioning effectiveness
Only seven of the 500 largest school districts (1.4%) are requiring masks as of Aug. 5, according to Burbio’s school mask policy tracker, compared to 369 (73.8%) in October 2021…
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/school-districts-sour-mask-mandates-amid-legal-scrutiny-research-questioning
 
‘Poor quality science’: Top epidemiologist rips CDC study on kids and long https://t.co/ZsiaFQylZ2
 
Babylon Bee CEO @SethDillon: I was just notified that Google has removed The Babylon Bee’s app from their store. Trying to figure out why and if we can get it reinstated.
 
The misery index, calculated by adding up the inflation and unemployment rates — and projects… Biden’s party can expect to lose 30 to 40 seats in the House and a few in the Senate too…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/midterm-misery-biden-key-economy-111529922.html
 
List of Tax Hikes in Democrat Reconciliation Bill  https://www.atr.org/list-of-tax-hikes-in-democrat-reconciliation-bill/
 
Today – The equity reversal from an early high on manic retail buying and short covering is a big negative, as is the frenetic buying of meme stocks.  We cannot emphasize enough how destructive and reckless Jerome Powell’s neutral rate comment was.
 
Barring news, equity action should be a range day.  Guppies and conditioned traders will buy stuff and try to generate activity.  However, saner angels are likely to refrain from the nuttiness as they await the release of the July CPI Report tomorrow.  ESUs are +3.50 at 21:00 ET; they were +11.00 before the raid.
 
NB: With all the hoopla over the inverted 2-10 curve, history shows recession appears AFTER the inverted curve decisively reverts to positive.
 

US 2-10 yields curve – After inverting, a decisive move back to a positive curve signals recession
 
Expected economic data: July NFIB Small Business Optimism 89.5; Q1 Nonfarm Productivity -4.6%, Unit Labor Costs 9.6%
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 39342; 100-day MA: 4118; 150-day MA: 4233; 200-day MA: 4338
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,711; 100-day MA: 32,712; 150-day MA: 33,382; 200-day MA: 33,967
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3735.11 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 4020.00 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4168.55 triggers a buy signal
 
Dershowitz: Trump Raid ‘Improper’ — ‘This Is Misconduct’
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2022/08/08/dershowitz-trump-raid-improper-this-is-misconduct/
 
@seanmdav: The reason Mitch McConnell hasn’t said a word about the home of a U.S. president being raided by lawless, corrupt feds is because he supports it.
 
Jeffrey Gundlach @TruthGundlach: August 6: CPAC backs Trump 69%.  August 7:  Senate votes to double IRS agents.  August 8:  FBI raids Trump.
 
Trump: Dems Played McConnell ‘Like a Fiddle’ on Bill
First he gave them the fake Infrastructure Bill, then Guns, never used the Debt Ceiling for negotiating purposes (gave it away for NOTHING!), and now this… Mitch doesn’t have a clue — he is sooo bad for the Republican Party!”…  https://www.newsmax.com/politics/donald-trump-mitch-mcconnell/2022/08/07/id/1082113/
 
@ColumbiaBugle Aug 4: FBI Director Christopher Wray After Having to Leave Early From Senate Judiciary Committee Hearing Today.  Senator Grassley: “I assume you’ve got other business?”  Director Wray: “Yeh.”
 
@julie_kelly2: Chris Wray cut off U.S. Senators to “catch a flight” which turned out to be taking his taxpayer-paid G5 to a weekend vacation.
 
FBI Director Christopher Wray is guiding the agency the wrong way, fast
Christopher Wray’s disingenuous testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee Thursday, before he left early on the FBI’s private Gulfstream 550 jet, speaks volumes about the need to defund the FBI — or at least dump its unctuous director.  Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley and his team of Republicans expected to have the chance to ask a second round of questions.  Grassley pleaded for just an extra 21 minutes
    Wray replied smoothly: “Senator, I had a flight that I’m supposed to be high-tailing it to outta here, and I had understood that we were going to be done at 1:30, so that’s how we ended up where we are.”
    Grassley pointed out that the FBI director has a private jet at his disposal and can leave any time he likes… Grassley’s staff did not know where Wray was going after the hearing and FBI public affairs did not respond to an email Sunday by press time.
    But the luxury FBI Gulfstream Wray uses was recorded on Flightradar24 making the one hour and 12 minute flight later that afternoon to bucolic Saranac Lake in the Adirondacks, which happens to be a favorite summer destination since his childhood, when he used to hike the High Peaks and fish for trout, according to the Adirondack Daily Enterprise…
https://nypost.com/2022/08/07/fbi-director-christopher-wray-is-guiding-the-agency-the-wrong-way-fast/
 
Inside the War Between Trump and His Generals (All DJT’s appointed generals hated him!)
The decision to name Milley was a rare chance, as Trump saw it, to get back at Mattis. Trump would confirm this years later, after falling out with both men, saying that he had picked Milley only because Mattis “could not stand him, had no respect for him, and would not recommend him.”…
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/08/15/inside-the-war-between-trump-and-his-generals
 
@HansMahn>https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1556706713578995718
    Milley studied the history of coups, he said, and understood it required authority over key government entities. You don’t say… https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1556716145629138944
    Milley threatened to throw Kash Patel in prison   https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1556716629983199238
 
DeSantis heads to battleground states to boost Trump-backed candidates
Turning Points Action founder and president Charlie Kirk telling Fox News that DeSantis “has become the model for a new conservative movement” in the United States…
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3592569-desantis-heads-to-battleground-states-to-boost-trump-backed-candidates/
 
10 career criminals have been arrested 485 combined times since NY started its catch-and-release bail reform.    https://notthebee.com/article/10-career-criminals-have-been-arrested-nearly-500-times-since-new-york-started-its-catch-and-release-bail-reform
 
NYC Mayor @ericadamsfornyc: We should protect our immigrants.” Period. Yes, New York City will remain a sanctuary city under an Adams administration.  Oct 20, 2021
 
Mayor Adams on the second bus load of illegal immigrants that landed in NYC: “This is horrific when you think about what [Abbot] is doing,” Adams said on Sunday…
 
“All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed, they must rely exclusively on force.” –– George Orwell. ReplyReply allForward


end

Greg Hunter interviewing 

END

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