AUGUST 10//GOLD CLOSED UP $2.45 TO $1797.50//SILVER WAS UP 26 CENTS TO $20.75//PLATINUM WAS UP $4.80 TO $943.20//PALLADIUM WAS UP $28.75 TO $2227.25//USA RELEASES CPI WITH INFLATION SIMMERING DOWN A BIT//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY//VACCINE MANDATE//HUGE STORY FROM ROBERT LAMBOURNE TODAY IN THAT BIS HAS ALMOST FINISHED WITH ITS GOLD DERIVATIVES//NEW STUDY OUT OF GERMANY SUGGESTS THE GERMAN ECONOMY IS EVAPORING HUGE AMOUNTS OF GDP//BY FRIDAY, THE RHINE RIVER MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT GOODS//IN A TOTAL IDIOTIC MOVE, THE NETHERLANDS GOVERNMENT IS TO ELIMINATE VERY PRODUCT 11,000+ FARMS//FORD HIKES PRICES ON ITS EV TRUCKS DUE TO INCREASE IN PARTS PRICES///SWAMP STORY FOR YOU TONIGHT//

Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1797.50 UP $2.45

SILVER: $20.75 UP 26 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1792.40

SILVER: $20.62

Bitcoin morning price:  $23,106 UP 56 

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $23,623. UP 573

Platinum price: closing UP $4.80 to $948.00 

Palladium price; closing UP $22.05  at $2256.00

END

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,794.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/09/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/11/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 8
072 H GOLDMAN 20
104 C MIZUHO 6
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 3
132 C SG AMERICAS 16
167 C MAREX 5
190 H BMO CAPITAL 5
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 40
661 C JP MORGAN 88 53
661 H JP MORGAN 1
709 H BARCLAYS 27
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 6 3
880 C CITIGROUP 60 3
880 H CITIGROUP 18
905 C ADM 1


TOTAL: 182 182
MONTH TO DATE: 28,632

JPMorgan stopped:   53/182

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:  

182 NOTICES FOR 18200 OZ //0.5660 TONNES

total notices so far: 28,632 contracts for 2,863,200 oz (89.057 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  

16 NOTICES FILED FOR 80,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  807 :  for 4,035,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $2.45 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.26 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: FIRST :A DEPOSIT OF 0.461 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 485.159 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A SMALL SIZED 196  CONTRACTS TO 141,093   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  SMALL GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.25 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.25) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS//. HOWEVER  WE HAD SOME  SPECULATOR LIQUIDATIONS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 3622 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//HUGE BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A FAIR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 130,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)    SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/(SPEC LIQUIDATION)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -509

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 8 days, total 5786  contracts:  28.930 million oz  OR 3.616 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (723 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 28.930 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 28.93 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 196 DESPITE OUR  $0.25 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1200 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER  ADDITIONS ////// HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATION// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 130,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1004 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.020 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 16  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  80,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 1911 CONTRACTS  TO 453,540 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: + 136 CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $6.70//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//FAIR ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 98.367 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 13400 OZ//NEW STANDING 98.784 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF   $6.70 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 274  OI CONTRACTS 0.852 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1501  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 453,540

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 410 CONTRACTS  WITH 1911 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1501 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 410 CONTRACTS OR 1.2752 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1501) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1775): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  274 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 13400 oz.    3) ZERO//MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

18,458 CONTRACTS OR 1,845,800 OZ OR 57.41  TONNES 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2307 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 57.41 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  57.41/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.60% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 57.41 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 196 CONTRACT OI TO 141,093 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1200 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 1200  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1200 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 196  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1200 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1004   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.020 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.25

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.41 PTS OR 0.34%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 392.60 OR 1.96%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 180.63 OR % 0.65.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.55%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7543//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.7566//    /Oil DOWN TO 88.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.57//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 1775 CONTRACTS TO 453,540 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE OF $6.70  IN GOLD PRICING  TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1501 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1501 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :1501 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1501 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 274  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1501 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1775  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 6.70.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST   (98.784),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:98.784 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $6.70) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS // COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO COVER TO THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED LOSS  OF 0.852 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (98.784 TONNES)

WE HAD + 136  CONTRACTS ADDED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 274 CONTRACTS OR 27,400  OZ OR 0.852 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 154,732/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  132,391/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 10

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz77,993.762 oz

Brinks
Loomis
Manfra


183 kilobars
Loomis







Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz65,604.847 oz
Brinks
No of oz served (contracts) today182   notice(s)
18,200 OZ
0.5660 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)3127 contracts 
317500 oz
9.7262 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month28,632 notices
2,863200 OZ
89.057 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits: nil oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i) out of Brinks: 28,217.570 oz 

ii) Out of Loomis; 5883.633 oz (183 kilobars)

iii) Out of Manfra;  43,892.659 oz

total:  77,993.559 oz

total in tonnes: 2.87 tonnes

Adjustments: dealer to customer //2

Brinks  482.20 oz

and

Manfra:  289.359 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an  oi of 3309 contracts having LOST  304 contracts .

We had 438 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 134 contracts or an additional 13,400 oz will stand for delivery in this very active month of August. 

.As promised, from this point on, we will now add to the amount of gold standing at the comex until the end of the month.

Sept. GAINED 76 contracts to 2653 contracts.

October LOST 1277 contracts DOWN to 39,177 

We had 182 notice(s) filed today for 18,200 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  88 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 182 contract(s) of which 1   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  53 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (28,632) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (AUGUST 3309  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 182 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,175,900 OZ  OR 98.784 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of AUGUST. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (28,632) x 100 oz+   (3309)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (182} x 100 oz} which equals 3,175,900 oz standing OR 98.784 TONNES in this active delivery month of August.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  98.784 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (   ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,318,414,091 oz   72.11 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  29,345,733.801 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 14,550,387.314  OZ (452,60 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,795,346.487 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 12,232,744.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 379.46 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 10

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory594,116.520 oz

JPMorgan




Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz

No of oz served today (contracts)16 CONTRACT(S)
80,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)105 contracts 
(525,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)807 contracts
 4,035,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  0  deposits into the customer account

total deposit:  nil   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 174.582 million oz/334.056 million =52.24% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 1

i) out of JPMorgan: 594,116.520 oz

total: 594,116.520   oz

 adjustments:  0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 55.259 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 334.356 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 121 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 26 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICE FILED ON MONDAY

SO WE GAINED 26 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 130,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.  THE AMOUNT STANDING

WILL NOW INCREASE//(OR REMAIN CONSTANT) ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 7917 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 77,622

OCTOBER GAINED ANOTHER 7 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 100

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 16 for  80,000 oz

Comex volumes:76,880// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 69,394 contracts (  good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 807 x 5,000 oz = 4,035,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(121) and the number of notices served upon today 16  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 807 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (121)  – number of notices served upon today (16) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 4,560,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 999.16 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4  WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 485.159 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Huge!! BIS will finally be out of the gold game

Robert Lambourne/GATA

Robert Lambourne: BIS has nearly ended its gold swap business

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-08-09 15:55Section: Daily Dispatches

By Robert Lambourne
Tuesday, August 9, 2022

According to its just-published statement of account for July, the Bank for International Settlements has nearly ended its gold swap business, which it has been operating since 2009.

The July statement —

— shows that the bank’s gold swaps fell from 202 tonnes as of June 30 to just 56 tonnes as of July 29. Last July the bank’s gold swaps stood at 502 tonnes, a decline of 89% for the year. 

The decline hastened substantially in February this year, possibly corresponding with the increasing compliance of bullion banks with “Basel III” regulations on collateral for the banks’ obligations in gold.

Once again it is evident that the BIS remains an active trader of significant volumes of gold swaps on a regular basis, and the latest data shows that the downward trend in the bank’s swaps is accelerating. If the current rate of decline is maintained, the BIS may be carrying no gold swaps at all by the end of the year, or even by the end of this month.

But the BIS is unlikely to provide any explanation for its use of gold swaps.

… Historical context …

The BIS rarely comments publicly on its gold activities, but its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009-10 annual report.

The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the bank, and he confirmed that they were carried out with commercial banks and so did not involve central banks. 

It also seems highly likely that the BIS’ remaining swaps are still all made with commercial banks, because the BIS annual report has never disclosed a gold swap between the BIS and a major central bank.

The swap transactions potentially create a mismatch at the BIS, which may end up being long unallocated gold (the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks) and short allocated gold (the gold required to be returned to swap counterparties). This possible mismatch has not been reported by the BIS.

The gold banking activities of the BIS have been a regular part of the services it offers to central banks since the establishment of the bank 90 years ago. The first annual report of the BIS explains these activities in some detail:

http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1931_en.pdf

A June 2008 presentation made by the BIS to recruit central bank members at its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland, noted that the bank’s services to its members include secret interventions in the gold and foreign exchange markets:

https://www.gata.org/node/11012

The use of gold swaps to take gold held by commercial banks and then deposit it in gold sight accounts held in the name of the BIS at major central banks doesn’t appear ever to have been as large a part of the BIS’ gold banking business as it has been in recent years.

As of March 31, 2010, excluding gold owned by the BIS, there were 1,706 tonnes held in gold sight accounts at major central banks in the name of the BIS, of which 346 tonnes or 20% were sourced from gold swaps from commercial banks.

If the BIS was adopting the level of disclosures made by publicly held companies, such as commercial banks, some explanation of these changes probably would have been required by the accounting regulators. This irony may not be lost on those dealing with regulatory activities at the BIS. Presumably the shrinkage of the BIS’ gold banking business shows that even central banks now prefer to hold their own gold or hold it in earmarked form — that is, as allocated gold.

A review of Table B below highlights recent BIS activity with gold swaps, and despite the recent declines, the recent positions estimated from the BIS monthly statements remained earlier this year and the volume of trading has been significant. 

No explanation for this continuing use of swaps has been published by the BIS. Indeed, no comment on the bank’s use of gold swaps has been offered since 2010.

This gold is supplied by bullion banks via the swaps to the BIS. The gold is then deposited in BIS gold sight accounts (unallocated gold accounts) at major central banks such as the Federal Reserve.

The reasons for this activity have never been fully explained by the BIS and various conjectures have been made as to why the BIS is facilitating it. One conjecture is that the swaps are a mechanism for the return to central banks of the gold they have secretly supplied to cover shortages in the gold markets.

The use of the BIS to facilitate this trade would suggest a desire to conceal the rationale for the transactions.

As can be seen in Table A below, the BIS has used gold swaps extensively since its financial year 2009-10. No use of swaps is reported in the bank’s annual reports for at least 10 years prior to the year ended March 2010.

The February 2021 estimate of the bank’s gold swaps (552 tonnes) is higher than any level of swaps reported by the BIS at its March year-end since March 2010. The swaps reported at March 2021 are at the highest year-end level reported.

—–

Table A … Swaps reported in BIS annual reports

March 2010: 346 tonnes.
March 2011: 409 tonnes.
March 2012: 355 tonnes.
March 2013: 404 tonnes.
March 2014: 236 tonnes.
March 2015: 47 tonnes.
March 2016: 0 tonnes.
March 2017: 438 tonnes.
March 2018: 361 tonnes.
March 2019: 175 tonnes.
March 2020: 326 tonnes.
March 2021: 490 tonnes.
March 2022: 358 tonnes.

—–

The table below reports the estimated monthly swap levels since August 2018. It can be seen that the BIS is actively involved in trading gold swaps and other gold derivatives with changes from month to month reported in excess of 100 tonnes in this period.

Table B … Swaps estimated by GATA from BIS monthly statements of account

Month ….. Swaps
& year … in tonnes

Jul-22 …. /56
Jun-22 …. /202
May-22…. /270
Apr-22 ….. /315
Mar-22 …. /358
Feb-22 …. /472
Jan-22 ….. /501
Dec-21…. /414
Nov-21…. /451
Oct-21…. /414
Sep-21 …. /438
Aug-21 …. /464
Jul-21 …. /502
Jun-21 …./471
May-21 …./517
Apr-21 …. /472
Mar-21…. /490±
Feb-21 …../552
Jan-21 …. /523
Dec-20 …. /545
Nov-20 …. /520
Oct-20 …. /519
Sep-20…../ 520
Aug-20…../ 484
Jul-20 ….. / 474
Jun-20 …. / 391
May-20 …. / 412
Apr-20 …. / 328
Mar-20 …. / 326*
Feb-20 …. / 326
Jan-20 …. / 320
Dec-19 …. / 313
Nov-19 …. / 250
Oct-19 …. / 186
Sep-19 …. / 128
Aug-19 …. / 162
Jul-19 ….. / 95
Jun-19 …. / 126
May-19 …. / 78
Apr-19 ….. / 88
Mar-19 …. / 175
Feb-19 …. / 303
Jan-19 …. / 247
Dec-18 …. / 275
Nov-18 …. / 308
Oct-18 …. / 372
Sep-18 …. / 238
Aug-18 …. / 370

± The estimate originally reported by GATA was 487 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 490 tonnes, It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

* The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 326 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.

—–

As noted already, the BIS in recent times has refused to explain its activities in the gold market, nor for whom the bank is acting:

https://www.gata.org/node/17793

Despite this reticence the BIS is almost certainly acting on behalf of central banks in taking out these swaps, as they are the BIS’ owners and control its Board of Directors.

This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as an agent for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets, providing those central banks with access to gold as well as protection from exposure of their interventions. 

A recent report published by Bullion Star’s Ronan Manly on the Bank of Portugal’s use of its gold reserves reinforces this point as the Bank of Portugal confirms that 20 tonnes of its gold is stored with the BIS: 

https://www.gata.org/node/21950

This disclosure seems a little economic with the truth as the BIS has no gold storage facilities of its own. Gold held by the BIS on behalf of central banks is either deposited into a BIS gold sight (unallocated) account or a BIS earmarked (allocated) gold account and deposited normally with one of the central banks based at a major gold trading center, such as the Federal Reserve in New York. 

Since Manly shows that the Bank of Portugal is focused on earning income from its gold, it seems likely that this gold is held in a BIS sight account, though its ultimate location is unclear.

Some commentators have suggested that a portion of the gold held by exchange-traded funds and managed by bullion banks may be sourced directly from central banks.

—–

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.

* * *

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: RICE//GRAINS/DIESEL

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

end

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7543

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7566

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 392.60 PTS OR  1.96%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 180.63 OR 0.65%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL MIXED 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  105.91/Euro RISES TO 1.0248

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.189/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 134.97/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +0.9275%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.08% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.04%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.19//

3j Gold at $1792.65 silver at: 20.49  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 4/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.43

3m oil into the 88 dollar handle for WTI and  94 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 134.97DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9484– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9719well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.797  UP 0  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.007  UP 0 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.91

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Rise Ahead Of Closely Watched CPI Report

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 07:45 AM

US equity futures reversed earlier losses and traded modestly in the green in cautious, muted overnight action before US inflation data which is expected to show headline US CPI cooled but stayed elevated in July, and which will shape investor expectations for further Fed rate hikes. S&P 500 contracts climbed 0.2% as of 715am ET, following a fourth day of declines in the underlying index Tuesday after Micron Technology followed Nvidia, and become the latest chipmaker to warn of slowing demand. Nasdaq 100 futures also rose 0.3% as Tesla hilariously gained in pre-market after CEO Elon Musk vowed an unexpected $6.9 billion sale of Tesla stock – his biggest on record – would be his last (which would be at least somewhat credible if he didn’t say that after every previous stock sale). Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index erased an initial drop, while the dollar slumped, and 10Y Treasury yields traded flat around 2.79%, while the 2s10s curve remained inverted by a massive 50bps. Crude oil dropped below $90 a barrel as a major pipeline from Russia to central Europe was set to resume flows in the coming days, and industry estimates showed an increase in US inventories. Gold and Bitcoin edged lower.

As noted above, Tesla paradoxically rose 2.7% in premarket trading, after Elon Musk sold $6.9 billion in shares, the billionaire’s biggest sale on record, saying he needs cash in the “hopefully unlikely” event he’s forced to buy Twitter and equity partners pull out. He’s offloaded a record $32 billion of the stock in the past 10 month. The billionaire also said he was done selling shares in the electric-car maker and would buy stock if the Twitter deal doesn’t close (narrator: he won’t). Bank stocks are also mostly higher in premarket trading Wednesday as investors await the release of key inflation data that could help determine the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path going forward. In corporate news, Coinbase posted a record $1.1 billion second-quarter loss and lower-than-expected revenue. Meanwhile, Carlyle Group’s global head of investor relations Nathan Urquhart is leaving the firm to become president at Coatue Management. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Allbirds (BIRD US) cut to equal- weight from overweight and PT lowered to $5 from $12 at Morgan Stanley, with the broker saying the footwear retailer’s weak results make its path to profit less clear.
  • AMC Entertainment (AMC US) and fellow so-called meme stocks were trading lower in premarket trading as the recent surge in the cohort loses steam.
  • CF Industries (CF US) raised to overweight from equal- weight and PT up to $120 from $103 at Barclays as the broker refreshes its views on fertilizer stocks following the 2Q earnings season.
  • Coinbase (COIN US) shares fall 6.5% in premarket trading after the company narrowed its average monthly transacting users forecast for the full year. It reported a record $1.1b loss in the second quarter and revenue that fell short of expectations. Analysts were optimistic about the BlackRock partnership, but noted that benefits from that will take time to reflect. .
  • Plug Power (PLUG US) shares fall 2.1% in US premarket trading, after the hydrogen fuel cell maker’s net revenue for the second quarter missed analyst estimates. Brokers remained positive on the prospect of the company benefiting from the landmark tax, climate and health-care bill that was recently passed in the Senate, and raised their price targets on the stock given the longer-term outlook.
  • Welltower’s (WELL US) guidance missed the average estimate, with analysts expecting the stock to underperform on concerns around softer guidance and higher costs. .
  • Wix.com (WIX US) shares initially rise 1.8% in US premarket before giving up gains after a 3Q revenue forecast missed estimates. Jefferies notes the focus is on margin, with a $150m cost-reduction plan to hit its three-year FCF margin target.

Investors will be closely monitoring the US inflation data at 830am Wednesday to recalibrate bets on further Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. Economists estimate consumer price inflation probably slowed last month from a quicker-than-expected annual rate of 9.1% in June. Headline consumer price inflation will soften in July from the prior month, but with the core CPI heating up that’ll be cold comfort for the Federal Reserve, according to Bloomberg Economics analysts including Anna Wong

“Today’s inflation number could set the tone for the markets for the rest of the month,” said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at Oanda. “A lower-than-expected number could be a major tailwind for the markets while anything around or above the June reading could trigger a big risk reversal in the markets as the debate shifts to 75 or 100 basis points, with 50 left in the rearview mirror.”

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the US central bank will be prepared to hold interest rates “higher for longer” should inflation continue to surprise to the upside. The Fed “will be driving those short rates higher,” said Gary Schlossberg, a global strategist for Wells Fargo Investment Institute, on Bloomberg Television. “We will be seeing a deepening inversion and a full inversion of the Treasury yield curve.”

Meanwhile, China’s military said exercises held around Taiwan in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit had concluded, while pledging to continue regular patrols near the island.

In European trading, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.1% with the FTSE MIB outperforming, adding 0.3%, FTSE 100 is flat but underperforms peers. Insurance, travel and autos are the strongest performing sectors. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Ahold Delhaize shares jump as much as 8.2%, the most intraday since March 2020, after the grocer reported 2Q results that beat estimates, increased its guidance for the year and said it was postponing the Bol.com IPO.
  • Deliveroo shares rise as much as 5% after the food-delivery company reported a smaller-than-expected adjusted Ebitda loss for 1H, following last month’s preliminary report and guidance cut.
  • BASF shares fall as much as 2% after Germany’s Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration reported that it expects the Rhine’s water level to drop, making shipping virtually impossible. Other companies with sites along the Rhine also fell.
  • Sixt shares drop as much as 8.5%, the most intraday since May, following the firm’s confirmation of guidance that analysts called “conservative.”
  • Shares in Norwegian seafood firms fall as Nordea cut ratings on three stocks in the sector. Leroy fell as much as 6.8% after being cut to sell.
  • 4imprint shares jump as much as 17% in London as analysts increase 2022 EPS estimates on the back of 1H earnings that showed strong momentum.
  • Sika shares drop as much as 2.9% as its $5.8 billion purchase of MBCC Group faces an in-depth investigation by the UK’s CMA over concerns the deal may weaken national competition in the supply of chemical admixtures.
  • Demant shares fall as much as 4.7% after Danske Bank resumes coverage of the hearing-aid maker with a hold rating.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as risk-off mood prevailed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.1%, headed for the lowest in two weeks. Technology shares were the biggest drags after Micron Technology became the latest chipmaker this week to sound the alarm over a slowdown in demand. Chinese and Hong Kong shares led losses in the region as traders digested the policy implication of inflation accelerating in the world’s second-largest economy. Meanwhile, Xinjiang and Tibetan capitals in China remain under heavy movement controls as the nation sticks to its Covid Zero strategy.

Asian emerging markets have been under pressure as the prospect of faster monetary tightening by the Fed has stoked fears of capital outflows and forced some of the region’s central banks to follow suit.  External demand from the US and Europe is “expected to weaken on the back of inflationary pressure and hawkish central bank policies, which could create headwinds for the export-driven manufacturing sector,” said William Fong, head of Hong Kong China equities at Barings. But this could also “provide some relief to commodity prices, which are expected to benefit the overall Chinese economy.”

Japanese stocks declined for a second day as investors await US inflation data.  The Topix Index fell 0.2% to 1,933.65 as of the market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 0.6% to 27,819.33. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 2%. Out of 2,170 stocks in the index, 1,020 rose and 1,042 fell, while 108 were unchanged. “The focus is on whether the US CPI acceleration will stop as expected,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Limited. “If acceleration continues, it will put pressure on the stocks and especially on US stocks which are likely to fall significantly.”

Indian stocks were little changed on Wednesday, after fluctuating for most of the session ahead of the US CPI report.  The S&P BSE Sensex closed down 0.1% at 58,817.29 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index ended up 0.1%.  Infosys weighed down the Sensex by the most as the IT-services provider dropped 1.1%; ICICI Bank’s 1.4% gain provided some offset. Among the 30 shares in the Sensex index, 17 fell and 13 rose. Eleven of the 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of software exporters. In earnings, of the 42 Nifty companies that have announced quarterly results so far, an equal number missed and exceeded analyst estimates. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%, falling for a third consecutive session. JPY and EUR are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NOK and NZD outperform. Trading in other G10 currencies lacked a clear theme before the US data, with the Norwegian krone and Swiss franc leading gains, while the Japanese yen and Australian dollar lagged.

In rates, treasuries futures traded choppy and off session highs after bull-flattening move in core European bonds, which outperform. Cash yields have flipped to cheaper on the day from belly to long-end while front-end outperforms ahead of July CPI report and 10-year note auction later in the session.  US 10-year yields around 2.79%, cheaper by ~2bp vs Tuesday’s close, with bunds and gilts outperforming by 3bp and 1bp in the sector; front-end outperformance re-steepens 2s10s spread (which reached -49.8bp Tuesday) by ~2bp ahead of 10-year note auction. The US refunding auction cycle continues with $35b 10-year note sale at 1pm ET, following Tuesday’s 3-year sale, which stopped through and produced record low primary-dealer award; cycle concludes Thursday with $21b 30- year bond. UK yield curve twist flattens; 2s10s curve down about 5bps to -1.1bps, inverting for the first time since BOE’s 50bp rate hike on Aug. 4. Bunds edge higher, outperforming Treasuries by 2bps.

In commodities, crude oil dropped below $90 a barrel as a major pipeline from Russia to central Europe was set to resume flows in the coming days, and industry estimates showed an increase in US inventories. WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, falling 0.7% to around $90. Gold and Bitcoin edged lower, with the yellow metal trading $2 dollars down at around $1,791.

While the likely return of Russian oil flows signaled some relief for Europe’s energy crisis, other developments were less positive: the Rhine River is set to become virtually impassable at a key waypoint in Germany on Aug. 12, with barges that haul everything from diesel to coal effectively unable to transit the river. Meanwhile, the UK is planning for several days over the winter when cold weather may combine with gas shortages, leading to organized blackouts for industry and even households.

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US CPI release for July. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Evans and Kashkari, and earnings releases include Disney.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,136.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 436.09
  • MXAP down 0.8% to 158.80
  • MXAPJ down 1.1% to 518.37
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 27,819.33
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,933.65
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.0% to 19,610.84
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,230.02
  • Sensex down 0.1% to 58,773.55
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 6,992.67
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,480.88
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.91%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0217
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,790.75
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.14% to 106.22

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China’s military said exercises held around Taiwan in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit had concluded, while pledging to continue regular patrols near the island
  • Hungary’s biggest refiner said it has paid Russia’s transit fee to Ukraine to resolve a dispute that has led to a halt in oil flows to central Europe.
  • Elon Musk offloaded $6.9 billion worth of stock in Tesla Inc., saying he wanted to avoid a sudden sale in the event he’s forced to go ahead with his deal to acquire Twitter Inc
  • Temperatures in Europe are climbing again as another heat wave sweeps the continent, threatening to disrupt travel and business and ratcheting up pressure on the region’s strained power infrastructure

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly subdued following the weak handover from the US where tech stocks were pressured after Micron’s warnings and with markets also cautious ahead of US CPI data. ASX 200 was lacklustre amid a spooked tech industry although the losses in the index were stemmed by strength in utilities, energy and the top-weighted financials sector which benefitted after Australia’s largest lender CBA posted higher profits. Nikkei 225 was pressured after it recently fell back beneath the 28,000 level and as the biggest movers remained influenced by earnings releases. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued with underperformance in Hong Kong amid the tech woes, while the mainland was somewhat choppy after softer than expected Chinese inflation data.

Top Asian News

  • Urumqi city in China’s Xinjiang will implement a partial lockdown due to COVID, according to state TV.
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno, Finance Minister Suzuki and Economy Minister Yamagiwa will remain in their roles following the cabinet reshuffle, while ex-Economy Minister Nishimura will become the new Trade Minister and ex-Defence Minister Hamada will become the new Defence Minister.
  • Two Chinese Among Nine Dead in Worst Seoul Storm in a Century
  • Thailand Signals Gradual Moves After First Hike Since 2018

European bourses are mixed and near the unchanged mark overall, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%,, after a softer open following a downbeat APAC/Wall St. handover. Stateside, futures have lifted off initial lows but reman in proximity to unchanged levels pre-CPI, ES +0.2%.

Top European News

  • UK Tory leadership frontrunner Truss has rejected calls from the CBI to meet with PM Johnson and former Chancellor Sunak to agree on a common pledge to tackle the cost of living crisis, according to FT.
  • German Finance Ministry wants to raise all income tax bracket thresholds apart from tax on the rich, which still kicks in at EUR 277,826 and expects the tax take to drop by EUR 10.1bln in 2023, according to Reuters sources.
  • German Finance Minister Lindner says the economic outlook for the nation is fragile; the economic situation is deteriorating and they are planning an inflation relief package, would be worth EUR 10bln in value.
  • Rhine river, Germany is seen as being effectively impassable at a key point on August 12th, via Bloomberg;
  • ABN Amro Flags Boost From Higher Rates After Beating Estimates

FX

  • DXY is softer but within a tight range and still above 106.00 vs a 106.40 high, with G10s benefitting across the board.
  • Antipodeans lead the charge while EUR and GBP post modest gains vs the USD.
  • Havens are also firmer against the Buck, albeit within narrow parameters ahead of US CPI.

Fixed Income

  • Decisive march higher experienced in both core and periphery counterparts with catalysts limited pre-CPI.
  • US yields are incrementally steeper, though the inversion/flattening theme remains intact.
  • German 2048 supply well received, but uneventful.

Commodities

  • WTI Sep and Brent Oct futures remain softer but off worse levels.
  • Spot gold is flat below USD 1,800/oz with the 50 DMA today seen at 1,785.31/oz and the 10 DMA seen at 1,775/oz
  • LME metal futures are mixed and copper fell back under USD 8,000/t.
  • Hungary’s MOL says transport through the Friend ship pipeline can resume “thanks to MOL”; has conducted negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to resume transport via the pipeline and has transferred the fee due for the Ukraine section.
  • Indian companies are using APAC currencies as payment for Russian coal imports, via Reuters citing sources/documents, in order to avoid sanctions; Yuan among the currencies becoming more popular.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications, Aug. 5, 0.2%, prior 1.2%
  • 8:30am: U.S. CPI MoM, July, est. 0.2%, prior 1.3%; YoY, July, est. 8.7%, prior 9.1%
  • 8:30am: U.S. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, July, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, July, est. 6.1%, prior 5.9%
  • 10am: U.S. Wholesale Inventories MoM, June F, est. 1.9%, prior 1.9%
  • 2pm: U.S. Monthly Budget Statement, July, est. -$175.0b, prior – $302.1b

Central Banks Speakers

  • 11am: Fed’s Evans Discusses the Economy and Monetary Policy
  • 2pm: Fed’s Kashkari Discusses Inflation

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets seems to be going into today’s all important US CPI a little on the apprehensive side. I’d imagine they’ll also be a lot of family holidays interrupted today by a stressed financial market worker checking their phones, portfolios and latest predictions while their families frustratingly try to compete for attention.

The nervousness is hardly surprising when you consider that these prints have coincided with some of the most volatile market reactions over the last year. Indeed, it was only two months ago that the release sent the S&P 500 to its lows for the year and contributed to the Fed accelerating its hiking pace to 75bps. Ironically that volatility and change in momentum from the Fed marked the lows in risk and the highs in bond yields. Even last week’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, which increased the probability of a third successive 75bps hike hasn’t dented the bounce back too much but the market is now waiting for direction. As we go into the print the market is pricing in around 68bps of a 75bps hike.

In terms of what our US economists expect, their view is that June’s +9.1% CPI reading was the peak in the year-on-year measure and that today’s reading for July will mark the start of a gradual move lower, with their forecasts looking for an +8.8% reading (consensus +8.7%). That’ll be aided by energy dragging on the headline CPI print, with their monthly forecast for July at +0.3% showing a significant slowing in price growth from the +1.3% in June (which itself was the fastest monthly inflation in the US since September 2005). However, they expect that core inflation will move back up on a year-on-year basis to +6.1%, bringing an end to three consecutive monthly declines since its recent peak in March. The market should care more about core if these figures are correct but it’s certainly possible that a decent fall in the headline could give a market hungry for positive inflation news a big filip. We will see.

Ahead of this, the S&P 500 (-0.43%) lost ground for a 4th consecutive session yesterday even if that totals up to “only” -0.79%. Interest-sensitive tech stocks like the NASDAQ (-1.19%) bore the brunt of the losses. That wasn’t helped by the news from Micron (-3.74%) that they were lowering their Q4 revenue forecast, as well as fears about a more aggressive pace of hikes from the Fed which rose yields and inverted the curve further. It was much the same story in Europe too, with the STOXX 600 shedding -0.67%, as other indices including the DAX (-1.12%) and the CAC 40 (-0.53%) also lost a fair bit of ground.

Those risk-off moves in Europe were given further support by yet another round of negative developments on the energy side. A key development that led oil prices higher in the aftermath were reports that Russian oil flows via the southern portion of the Druzhba pipeline were suspended on August 4. That pipeline goes through Ukraine to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic and is clearly not what policymakers want to hear when they’re already grappling with a significant price shock. On top of that, we saw French and German power prices for 2023 rise to yet further records, with French power up +2.65% to €556 per megawatt-hour, and German power up +1.10% to €411 per megawatt-hour. And if that wasn’t enough, Bloomberg went on to report that the UK government’s “reasonable worst-case scenario” included several days of organised blackouts that could see emergency measures triggered to conserve gas. It was quite a scary read.

This downbeat tone was evident across asset classes, not least among US Treasuries where the 2s10s curve (-4.2bps) moved even deeper into inversion territory at -49.6bps. That’s the most inverted it’s been since 2000, and is actually coming increasingly close to breaching that milestone, with the point to beat at -56bps, which would take it back to levels unseen since 1981. That inversion has in part been driven by growing expectations of a more hawkish Fed, with the rate priced in by December 2023 moving up +7.9bps yesterday to 3.13%. In line with the tighter expected policy, the inversion was driven by yields across the curve moving higher, with 2yr yields climbing +6.4bps to 3.27% and 10yr yields +2.0bps higher at 2.78%. European yields similarly moved higher, with those on 10yr bunds (+2.3bps), OATs (+3.1bps) and BTPs (+0.5bps) all rising on the day. This morning in Asia, yields on the 10yr USTs (+0.91 bps) are slightly up at 2.79% but the curve has resteepened a couple of basis points.

Asian equity markets are broadly lower this morning. As I type, the Hang Seng (-2.05%) is leading losses across the region dragged lower by declines in Chinese listed technology stocks with the Shanghai Composite (-0.37%) and CSI (-0.86%) also trading in negative territory following the release of China’s lower than expected consumer and producer prices data (more below). Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.72%) and the Kospi (-0.65%) are also weaker in early trade.

Outside of Asia, US stock futures are looking for direction with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.05%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.10%) only slightly lower. At the moment Elon Musk selling $6.9bn worth of Tesla shares in case he’s forced to go through with the Twitter purchase doesn’t seem to be hurting sentiment at the moment.

Early morning data showed that China’s consumer price rose +2.7% y/y in July (v/s +2.9% expected), up from +2.5% in June, recording its strongest growth since July 2020 even with the miss. Producer prices also missed and rose by +4.2% y/y in July, down from +6.1% growth in June and lower than the +4.9% gain predicted, indicating that underlying inflation pressures remain limited in the world’s second largest economy. Over in Japan, producer prices were up +0.4% m/m in July, in line with market expectations but down from the upwardly revised +0.9% increase in June (originally +0.7%).

In terms of yesterday’s data, US nonfarm productivity fell by -4.6% in Q2, in line with expectations, though unit labour cost rose by a faster-than-expected +10.8% (vs. +9.5% expected). Elsewhere, the NFIB’s small business optimism index for July came in at 89.9 (vs. 89.5 expected), which marked the first monthly increase in that reading so far this year.

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US CPI release for July. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Evans and Kashkari, and earnings releases include Disney.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Mixed and relatively contained trade pre-US CPI; Chinese inflation below exp. – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 06:42 AM

  • European bourses are mixed and near the unchanged mark overall, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%,, after a softer open following a downbeat APAC/Wall St. handover.
  • Stateside, futures have lifted off initial lows but reman in proximity to unchanged levels pre-CPI, ES +0.2%.
  • DXY has eased but remains in narrow ranges to the modest benefit of peers; Yuan initially softer on below-exp. Chinese CPI
  • A decisive move higher in EGBs/USTs without fresh catalyst or drive, yield curve steeper
  • Crude benchmarks are under modest pressure but off worst levels while gold and LME metals are mixed/flat
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Chinese M2, Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Evans & Kashkari, Supply from the US, Earnings from Disney, Fox.

As of 11:10BST/06:10ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US CPI, Chinese M2, Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Evans & Kashkari, Supply from the US, Earnings from Disney, Fox.

GEOPOLITICS

  • Ukraine is not taking responsibility for the explosions at the Russian airbase in Crimea, according to Ukrainian President Zelensky’s adviser cited by Reuters.
  • Chinese military says they have completed various tasks around Taiwan; Eastern Theatre Command to keep a close eye on changes around the Strait, via Reuters; will conduct regular patrols.
  • Around 20 Chinese and Taiwanese warships stayed close to the Taiwan Strait median line on Wednesday morning and some Chinese ships continued to conduct missions off Taiwan’s eastern coast, according to a source briefed on the matter cited by Reuters.
  • China’s Global Times tweeted that a white paper said they make no commitment to renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary measures, while this is aimed at external interference and Taiwan secessionists but not Taiwan compatriots, while it added that a non-peaceful means will be the last choice. Chinese state TV also noted that China reiterated not ruling out the use of force and its policy of one country, two systems for Taiwan.
  • China and South Korea agreed to maintain supply-chain stability and their foreign ministers discussed THAAD in a meeting on Tuesday.
  • China’s ambassador to Australia said they have not yet reached the stage to talk about how to solve the trade issue, according to Reuters.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are mixed and near the unchanged mark overall, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%,, after a softer open following a downbeat APAC/Wall St. handover.
  • Stateside, futures have lifted off initial lows but reman in proximity to unchanged levels pre-CPI, ES +0.2%.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY is softer but within a tight range and still above 106.00 vs a 106.40 high, with G10s benefitting across the board.
  • Antipodeans lead the charge while EUR and GBP post modest gains vs the USD.
  • Havens are also firmer against the Buck, albeit within narrow parameters ahead of US CPI.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 1.0050-55 (674M), 1.0100 (874M), 1.0145-50 (555M), 1.0160 (254M), 1.0170-75 (1.84BLN), 1.0185 (544M), 1.0195-05 (690M), 1.0210-20 (1.95BLN), 1.0225 (300M), 1.0260 (398M)
  • GBP/USD: 1.1990-00 (277M), 1.2040-50 (558M)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6900-10 (307M), *0.6985-0.7000 (735M). *
  • USD/CAD: 1.2890-00 (1.39BLN).
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Decisive march higher experienced in both core and periphery counterparts with catalysts limited pre-CPI.
  • US yields are incrementally steeper, though the inversion/flattening theme remains intact.
  • German 2048 supply well received, but uneventful.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI Sep and Brent Oct futures remain softer but off worse levels.
  • Spot gold is flat below USD 1,800/oz with the 50 DMA today seen at 1,785.31/oz and the 10 DMA seen at 1,775/oz
  • LME metal futures are mixed and copper fell back under USD 8,000/t.
  • Hungary’s MOL says transport through the Friend ship pipeline can resume “thanks to MOL”; has conducted negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to resume transport via the pipeline and has transferred the fee due for the Ukraine section.
  • Indian companies are using APAC currencies as payment for Russian coal imports, via Reuters citing sources/documents, in order to avoid sanctions; Yuan among the currencies becoming more popular.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • UK Tory leadership frontrunner Truss has rejected calls from the CBI to meet with PM Johnson and former Chancellor Sunak to agree on a common pledge to tackle the cost of living crisis, according to FT.
  • German Finance Ministry wants to raise all income tax bracket thresholds apart from tax on the rich, which still kicks in at EUR 277,826 and expects the tax take to drop by EUR 10.1bln in 2023, according to Reuters sources.
  • German Finance Minister Lindner says the economic outlook for the nation is fragile; the economic situation is deteriorating and they are planning an inflation relief package, would be worth EUR 10bln in value.
  • Rhine river, Germany is seen as being effectively impassable at a key point on August 12th, via Bloomberg;

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US HHS Secretary said they took action to allow the FDA to grant EUA for monkeypox vaccines.
    • US SEC is to propose rules to boost hedge fund and private fund leverage disclosures and will require funds to provide more information as part of confidential “Form-PF” disclosures, according to Reuters sources.
    • Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk sold around USD 6.9bln of shares in the automaker and said that in the hopefully unlikely event that Twitter forces the deal to close and some equity partners don’t come through, it is important to avoid an emergency sale of Tesla stock, while he responded ‘yes’ when asked if he would buy Tesla stock again in case the Twitter deal doesn’t close.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the weak handover from the US where tech stocks were pressured after Micron’s warnings and with markets also cautious ahead of US CPI data.
  • ASX 200 was lacklustre amid a spooked tech industry although the losses in the index were stemmed by strength in utilities, energy and the top-weighted financials sector which benefitted after Australia’s largest lender CBA posted higher profits.
  • Nikkei 225 was pressured after it recently fell back beneath the 28,000 level and as the biggest movers remained influenced by earnings releases.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued with underperformance in Hong Kong amid the tech woes, while the mainland was somewhat choppy after softer than expected Chinese inflation data.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • Urumqi city in China’s Xinjiang will implement a partial lockdown due to COVID, according to state TV.
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno, Finance Minister Suzuki and Economy Minister Yamagiwa will remain in their roles following the cabinet reshuffle, while ex-Economy Minister Nishimura will become the new Trade Minister and ex-Defence Minister Hamada will become the new Defence Minister.
  • Updates from FoxconnHondaToshiba and TSMC.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese CPI MM (Jul) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.0%); YY (Jul) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.5%)
  • Chinese PPI YY (Jul) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 6.1%)

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.41 PTS OR 0.34%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 392.60 OR 1.96%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 180.63 OR % 0.65.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.55%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7543//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.7566//    /Oil DOWN TO 88.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.57//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA//USA/TAIWAN

A good read, if Taiwan is attacked.  What will happen

Ray Dalio/)(

Defense Experts Game Out US-China War Over Taiwan; Dalio Warns Escalations ‘Very Dangerous’

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 11:05 PM

A group of American defense experts operating out of a 5th floor suite in Washington DC have been mapping out a hypothetical war between the United States and China over Taiwan.

“The results are showing that under most — though not all — scenarios, Taiwan can repel an invasion,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which has been simulating various war scenarios. “However, the cost will be very high to the Taiwanese infrastructure and economy and to US forces in the Pacific.

In sessions that will run through September, retired US generals and Navy officers and former Pentagon officials hunch like chess players over tabletops along with analysts from the CSIS think tank. They move forces depicted as blue and red boxes and small wooden squares over maps of the Western Pacific and Taiwan. The results will be released to the public in December. –Bloomberg

The base assumption is that China invades Taiwan to force unification, which the US responds to with its military. Another assumption (that’s ‘far from certain’) is that Japan would grant ‘expanded rights’ to use US bases on its territory – but wouldn’t intervene directly unless Japanese land is attacked.

Nuclear weapons are not part of the scenarios, and the weapons used in the simulation are the most likely to be deployed based on current capabilities of the nations involved.

News of the war game simulations come as China began test-firing missiles in recent days following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) visit to Taiwan.So far, 18 of 22 rounds of the simulation to date have resulted in Chinese missiles sinking a large part of the US and Japanese surface fleet, and would destroy “hundreds of aircraft on the ground,” according to Cancian, a former White House defense budget analyst and retired US Marine.

“However, allied air and naval counterattacks hammer the exposed Chinese amphibious and surface fleet, eventually sinking about 150 ships,” he added.

“The reason for the high US losses is that the United States cannot conduct a systematic campaign to take down Chinese defenses before moving in close,” Cancian continued. “The United States must send forces to attack the Chinese fleet, especially the amphibious ships, before establishing air or maritime superiority.”

To get a sense of the scale of the losses, in our last game iteration, the United States lost over 900 fighter/attack aircraft in a four-week conflict. That’s about half the Navy and Air Force inventory.

According to the simulations, the Chinese missile force “is devastating while the inventory lasts,” which makes US subs and long-range-capable bombers “particularly important.” Also key, is Taiwan’s defense capabilities, because its forces would be primarily responsible for countering Chinese landings from the South.

“The success or failure of the ground war depends entirely on the Taiwanese forces,” said Cancian. “In all game iterations so far, the Chinese could establish a beachhead but in most circumstances cannot expand it. The attrition of their amphibious fleet limits the forces they can deploy and sustain. In a few instances, the Chinese were able to hold part of the island but not conquer the entire island.”

“For the Taiwanese, anti-ship missiles are important, surface ships and aircraft less so,” because surface ships “have a hard time surviving as long as the Chinese have long-range missiles available.”

There have been no estimates so far on lives lost, or the sweeping economic impact of such a conflict between the US and China.

As Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio notes, “The US-China Tit-For-Tat Escalations Are Very Dangerous.”

Unfortunately, what is happening now between the US and China over Taiwan is following the classic path to war laid out in my book “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.” If events continue to follow this path, this conflict will have a much larger global impact than the Russia-Ukraine war because it is between the world’s leading superpowers that are economically much larger and much more intertwined.  

For reasons previously explained, the Russia-Ukraine war is minor by comparison, though the two conflicts are related and the Russia-Ukraine war, like all wars, is having terrible consequences. For example, consider that China’s share of world trade is over seven times larger than Russia’s [1] and constitutes about 19% of all American manufactured goods imports. [2] Imagine if importing goods from China and doing business with China became the same as they are with Russia now. Imagine what the supply chain and economic impacts on the world would be. Imagine what sanctions on China would be like for the world. Supply chains would collapse, economic activity would dive, and inflation would soar. And that’s just what would happen to economies due to economic warfare which would pale in comparison to the impact that military warfare, which we are obviously dangerously close to, would have.

For reasons explained in my book, the situation that now exists between the United States and China is very similar to that which existed between powers immediately prior to World Wars I and II and many other immediate prewar periods. The chart below shows my US-China conflict gauge since 2000. As you can see, the readings for conflict between the US and China are the highest ever.

This index is composed of many indicators such as changes in military spending, personnel, and deployment; sentiment of each country’s people about the other country; media attention given to the conflict, etc. The combination of military spending and attitudes toward each rival country has been particularly indicative. The chart below shows the shares of global military spending for the US and China which significantly understates China’s military spending because much government spending that supports the military is not included as direct military spending. Also, American military spending covers the world while Chinese military spending is more focused in the region. Knowledgeable parties tell me that China has significant military superiority around Taiwan.

The chart below plots recent Gallop poll data and shows that 80% of Americans now have an unfavorable view of China—which is now on par with how Americans view Russia (and is up meaningfully over the past few years).  

To put the existing level of conflict between China and the US in perspective, the table below compares the current US-China conflict gauge reading to past readings of other great conflicts. As shown, the current reading for the US and China is nearly 1.2 standard deviations above the average, which is a reading in the high end of the range of major conflicts. While this conveys a high level and risk of conflict, it should not be misinterpreted to mean that a worsening is to come. Sometimes, these moments of heightened conflict are followed by a stepping back from war. For example, the period leading into the Cuban Missile Crisis had a relatively high reading of 0.9, but wise heads prevailed, so a potential disaster was avoided.

There are many more measures that convey the changing picture that are explained in my book which I don’t have the space to show you here, but will continue to plot along with the historical analogies I outlined in the book.   I will use them to paint as accurate a picture as I can about what’s happening and put it into an historical context. The dot plot will speak for itself as to which path we are on.

As for what’s now happening, the Chinese are responding to Nancy Pelosi’s visit by cutting off most relations and demonstrating that they can militarily control the area around Taiwan, which implies that China could shut Taiwan off from the rest of the world. Imagine that and its implications, e.g., imagine if semiconductor chips couldn’t get out of Taiwan. China is also displaying its military power and it is crossing previously uncrossed lines of demarcation, thus closing in on Taiwan. [7]

Pelosi’s visit was perceived by China as a move in favor of Taiwan’s independence rather than toward one China with Taiwan part of China, and it is essentially challenging the US to stop it from doing what it is doing. The question is whether the US will respond with another escalation that will prompt another Chinese response, in the classic tit-for-tat acceleration into war, or if the sides will step back.

To gain a picture of the past and the forces that are driving the evolution of the US and China toward war (i.e. the Big Cycle) I suggest that you review Chapter 13 “US-China Relations and Wars.” I suggest that you pay particular attention to my explanation of previous Taiwan Straits crises and why I said I would worry if we had a “Fourth Taiwan Crisis” which is the crisis that we are now having. To understand what is happening you must understand these things.  

As I summarized on page 455 of that Chapter in the section “The Risk of Unnecessary War:” Stupid wars often happen as a result of a tit-for-tat escalation process in which responding to even small actions of an adversary is more important than being perceived as weak, especially when those on both sides don’t really understand the motivations of those on the other side. History shows us that this is especially a problem for declining empires, which tend to fight more than is logical because any retreat is seen as a defeat. Take the issue of Taiwan. Even though the US fighting to defend Taiwan would seem to be illogical, not fighting a Chinese attack on Taiwan might be perceived as being a big loss of stature and power over other countries that won’t support the US if it doesn’t fight and win for its allies. Additionally, such defeats can make leaders look weak to their own people, which can cost them the political support they need to remain in power. And, of course, miscalculations due to misunderstandings when conflicts are transpiring quickly are dangerous. All these dynamics create strong pulls toward wars accelerating even though such mutually destructive wars are so much worse than cooperating and competing in more peaceful ways. There is also risk of untruthful, emotional rhetoric taking hold in both the US and China, creating an atmosphere for escalation.

While the power of the forces behind the Big Cycle explained in “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” can be overwhelming, people still have choices that will affect the outcomes. This conflict is still a low-grade military conflict (which I call a Category 2 military conflict) because 1) it has not yet produced an exchange of bloodshed of people from the two major sides i.e., Chinese and/or Americans and 2) it is not taking place on either country’s homeland (though the Chinese would say Taiwan is part of their homeland even though it’s not part of mainland China). If either of these were to change, that would be the next big step up toward unimaginable all-out war which I still consider improbable.

A good thing is that sensible people on both sides are scared of war even though they don’t want to look like they are. A bad thing is that some people on both sides want to intensify the fight because to not do so in the face of the provocation wound be perceived as a sign of weakness. That dynamic of upping the ante to avoid looking like one is backing down has throughout history been shown to be a very dangerous dynamic. We have seen many historic cases which have led to terrible wars because neither side wanted to back down and only few in which sensible people stepped back from the brink when faced with the prospect of unacceptable destruction. 

My hope is that China’s escalation will not lead to the next US escalation which will lead to the next Chinese escalation which, despite the strong desire of sensible people on both sides to avoid war, would lead to a war. But hope is not a strategy, so I will try to be as realistic as possible, navigate accordingly, and communicate well with you.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

GERMANY

A new study suggests that a huge amount of GDP is evaporating from the German economy due to the energy crisis

(zerohedge)

$265 Billion In Added Value To Evaporate From Germany Economy Amid Energy Crisis, Study Warns

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 04:15 AM

A new report published by the Employment Research (IAB) on Tuesday outlines how Germany’s economy will lose a whopping 260 billion euros ($265 billion) in added value by the end of the decade due to high energy prices sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which will have severe ramifications on the labor market, according to Reuters

IAB said Germany’s price-adjusted GDP could be 1.7% lower in 2023, with approximately 240,000 job losses, adding labor market turmoil could last through 2026. It expects the labor market will begin rehealing by 2030 with 60,000 job additions.

The report pointed out the hospitality industry will be one of the biggest losers in the coming downturn that the coronavirus pandemic has already hit. Consumers who have seen their purchasing power collapse due to negative real wage growth as the highest inflation in decades runs rampant through the economy will reduce spending. 

IAB said energy-intensive industries, such as chemical and metal industries, will be significantly affected by soaring power prices. 

In one scenario, IAB said if energy prices, already up 160%, were to double again, Germany’s economic output would crater by nearly 4% than it would have without energy supply disruptions from Russia. Under this assumption, 660,000 fewer people would be employed after three years and still 60,000 fewer in 2030. 

This week alone, German power prices hit record highs as a heat wave increased demand, putting pressure on energy supplies ahead of winter. 

Rising power costs are putting German households in economic misery as economic sentiment across the euro-area economy tumbled to a new record low. What happens in Germany tends to spread to the rest of the EU. 

There are concerns that a sharp weakening of growth in Germany could trigger stagflation as German inflation unexpectedly re-accelerated in July, with EU-Harmonized CPI rising 8.5% YoY. 

Germany is facing an unprecedented energy crisis as Russian natural gas cuts via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will reverse the prosperity many have been accustomed to as the largest economy in Europe. 

“We are facing the biggest crisis the country has ever had. We have to be honest and say: First of all, we will lose the prosperity that we have had for years,” Rainer Dulger, head of the Confederation of German Employers’ Associations, warned last month. 

Besides Dulger, Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned of a “catastrophic winter” ahead over Russian NatGas cut fears.

Other officials and experts forecast bankruptcies, inflation, and energy rationing this winter that could unleash a tsunami of shockwaves across the German economy.  

Yasmin Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions, warned last month:

“Because of the NatGas bottlenecks, entire industries are in danger of permanently collapsing: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry.” 

IAB’s report appears to be on point as the German economy seems to be diving head first into an economic crisis. Much of this could’ve been prevented, but Europe and the US have been so adamant about slapping Russia with sanctions that have embarrassingly backfired. 

END

GERMANY

We have been highlighting this story for the past several days:  now the industrial heartland of Germany may become impassable by Friday as the Rhine river water levels are receding

(zerohedge)

Germany’s Industrial Heartland Faces Crisis As Rhine River May Become Impassable By Friday

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 09:37 AM

Water levels on the Rhine River are nearing dangerously low levels, and new forecasts expect Europe’s most critical waterway for inland commodity shipments via barges could be impassable by the end of the week. 

The river at Kaub, Germany, is 47 centimeters (18.5 inches) on Wednesday and is expected to drop to the critical depth of 40 centimeters (15.7 inches) by Friday, according to the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. There is even the possibility water levels could fall as low as 37 centimeters (14.5 inches) during the weekend. 

Below 40 centimeters would mean barges at the key transit point in Germany would no longer be able to pass and restrict shipments of energy products and other commodities along Europe’s most crucial waterway amid the worst energy shortage in decades. 

In the next couple of days, if forecasts are correct, Germany’s industrial heartland may risk a repeat of the disruption seen during the river’s historical low in 2018. Rhine River becoming impassible would certainly exacerbate Europe’s ongoing energy crisis.

The Rhine snakes about 800 miles (1,300 kilometers) from the Swiss Alps through Europe’s largest industrial areas and has already dented cargo shipments for chemicals giant BASF SE, steelmaker ThyssenKrupp AG, and utility Uniper SE. Bloomberg lists the most exposed companies to low Rhine River levels:

Uniper warned low water levels have reduced barge coal shipments to a major power plant. The utility said its 510-megawatt Staudinger-5 coal-fired power plant had seen fewer and fewer barge shipments of coal due to dwindling low water levels that could soon result in “irregular operation.” 

Bloomberg outlines the most transported goods on the waterway. If water levels fall below 40 centimeters, companies must use rail and trucking for transportation. 

As much as 10% of Europe’s chemical shipments utilize the Rhine River, including feedstocks, fertilizers, intermediates and finished chemical products. The Rhine accounts for about 28% of chemical shipments in Germany, based on our analysis of 2019 and 2020 transport data. The nation is the heart of Europe’s chemical industry, accounting for 36% of EU production over the past decade by tonnage.

Industrial gases, many of which move by pipeline or truck, are excluded from this analysis, which includes data from Eurostat, The Central Commission for the Navigation of the Rhine, and Verband der Chemischen Industrie. Key publicly listed producers with facilities along or near the Rhine include BASF, Wacker, EMS-Chemie, DSM, Umicore, Akzo-Nobel and Celanese. -Bloomberg

Top commodities shipped via barge on the river. 

Low water levels on the Rhine are set to unleash unwanted and additional supply-chain issues for the EU’s largest economy as the persisting energy crisis may spark economic hell by winter. 

END

NETHERLANDS

Netherlands to SHUT DOWN 11 200 farms to meet climate goals

Inbox

Robert Hryniak1:15 PM (5 minutes ago)
to

Nuts

https://petersweden.substack.com/p/dutch-farmers-11200

end

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/USA

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

MoA – Ukraine SitRep – Casualties Leak – Ukraine Admits Russian Breakthrough – Southern Front Paralysis

Inbox

Robert Hryniak4:07 PM (22 minutes ago)
to

The most important aspect of this article is that the Ukrainians are operating below 50% of their strength level. This means that at least 200,000 troops are dead and how many more are missing is unknown. However it is a large number. At this time the largest casualties are behind the fortified front lines as functional brigades are being decimated one by one to point they are no longer able to function as combat units. Expect greater losses later this month as some brigades are now down 70% in capability. This means in a unit of 5000 people at least 3,500 are dead or been removed from active combat capability.
Today, even the walking wounded are being sent back to the front lines to die. There should be no question that Zelensky and his enablers will fight to the last Ukrainian, be it a child or a grand parent.
In the Western part of the Ukraine, Zelensky is selling off Ukrainian assets at 50% of value and pocketing the gains and more than likely when this asset strip is done everything west of Kiev will be divided between Poland and Hungary who thirst for so called ancestral lands. Good luck to them with the Ukrainian Nazi crowd there.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/08/ukraine-sitrep-casualties-leak-ukraine-admits-russian-breakthrough-southern-front-paralysis.html

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Head Of The Lancet’s COVID-19 Investigation Is “Convinced” It Came Out Of A Lab

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

The head of the preeminent scientific journal The Lancet’s COVID-19 origins Commission is ‘convinced’ that the virus came out of a lab and says that a real investigation is being blocked.

Professor Jeffrey Sachs told Current Affairs that he is “pretty convinced [COVID-19] came out of US lab biotechnology” and has warned that ongoing research could lead to another pandemic outbreak.

Sachs notes that scientists who dismissed the lab leak theory did so “before they had done any research at all,” adding “they’re creating a narrative. And they’re denying the alternative hypothesis without looking closely at it.”

Sachs points to the ‘gain of function’ research and the genetic markers found in the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus that indicate it was manipulated to be more deadly.

“What’s interesting, and concerning if I may say so, is that the research that was underway very actively and being promoted, was to insert furin cleavage sites into SARS-like viruses to see what would happen. Oops!” Sachs states.

“They’re not looking,” Sachs says of scientists who dismiss the lab leak, adding “They just keep telling us, ‘Look at the market, look at the market, look at the market!’ But they don’t address this alternative. They don’t even look at the data. They don’t even ask questions. And the truth is from the beginning, they haven’t asked the real questions.”

Sachs further labels the efforts to distract from the lab research as “misdirection” and “sleight of hand”.

“There is a huge amount of reason to believe that that research was underway. Because there are published papers on this. There are interviews on this. There are research proposals. But NIH isn’t talking. It’s not asking. And these scientists have never asked either,” Sachs further asserts.

He continues, “From the very first day, they have kept hidden from view the alternative. And when they discuss the alternative, they don’t discuss the research program. They discuss complete straw men about the lab, not the actual kind of research that was underway, which was to stick furin cleavage sites into SARS-like viruses in a way that could have created SARS-Cov-2.”

“What I’m calling for is not the conclusion. I’m calling for the investigation,” Sachs urges, adding “Finally, after two and a half years of this, it’s time to fess up that it might have come out of a lab and here’s the data that we need to know to find out whether it did.”

Sachs also addresses EcoHealth Alliance and Peter Daszak, noting that he originally personally appointed Daszak to chair the task force of the Lancet’s pandemic commission.

Sachs says “I realized he [Daszak] was not telling me the truth. And it took me some months, but the more I saw it, the more I resented it. And so I told him, ‘Look, you have to leave.’”

Sachs adds that once he fired Daszak, other scientists began attacking him.

“I asked them: “What are your connections with all of this?” They didn’t tell me. Then when the Freedom of Information Act released some of these documents that NIH had been hiding from the public, I saw that people that were attacking me were also part of this thing. So I disbanded that whole task force,” Sachs notes.

“So my own experience was to witness close up how they’re not talking. And they’re trying to keep our eyes on something else. And away from even asking the questions that we’re talking about,” Sachs further warns.

Sachs concludes that he “Doesn’t trust” the governments and scientists who are dismissing the lab leak theory, adding “I want to know. Because even what we know of the dangerous research is enough to raise a lot of questions of responsibility for the future. And to pose the question: ‘Hey, what other viruses are you guys working on? What should we know?’”

“I want to know what’s being done. I want to know what other governments are doing, too, not just ours. I want some global control over this stuff,” Sachs further urges.

The professor finally calls for “a bipartisan congressional oversight investigation that has subpoena power,” urging “Give us your lab records, your notebooks, your data files of virus strains, and so forth.”

As we have highlighted, this is what Senator Rand Paul is pursuing relentlessly.

Following an initial hearing last week before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs subcommittee, Paul revealed that there is a committee that is supposed to oversee experimentation with potentially lethal viruses, but that it is above the oversight of Congress.

“We don’t know the names. We don’t know that they ever meet, and we don’t have any records of their meetings,” the Senator noted, adding “It’s top-secret. Congress is not allowed to know. So whether the committee actually exists, we’re uncertain.”

*  *  *

Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

Dr Paul Alexander..

Trump: “We are a nation that has weaponized its law enforcement against the opposing political party like never before, we are Americans and Americans kneel to God and God alone”; beautiful, now…

if it is you or Ron or whomever, this time, when we get the wheel, in the 1st hour, we do not want to hear bullshit about hearings & oversight, we want jailtime, just lock them all up!

Dr. Paul Alexander
Aug 9

Great speech but we heard it before. The evidence is there, just act! Strip all the agencies to bare, top down, remake them, there are many great Americans willing to serve and will help, but lock them up! Stop the bullshit take about ‘we will strongly look at this or that’ Mr. POTUS; do what the democrats do, lock them up! All those in Clinton administration, Bush, Obama, Biden, even yours, all who broke laws, any and everyone, lock them up, go back 20 to 30 years. Let Americans see real accountability and start with the Four COVID Horsemen, Fauci, Francis Collins, Bourla, and Bancel, investigate them. Publicly.

SOURCE:

Trump Posts Campaign Ad-Style Video to Truth Social Following FBI Raid on Mar-a-Lago

end

From: Dr. Paul Alexander from Alexander COVID News<palexander@substack.com>
Date: Wed, Aug 10, 2022 at 02:01
Subject: Denmark: it is over! We are done with fraud fake COVID vaccines; none for kids! “Danish News Round-Up: Danish gove…
To: <sabioncello@gmail.com>

Open in browserDenmark: it is over! We are done with fraud fake COVID vaccines; none for kids! “Danish News Round-Up: Danish government no longer recommending vaccines for children”; so why is CDC, NIH doing this?PM defends the decision: According to Brostrøm, the vaccination of children last autumn and winter did little to slow the spread of the virus. Wow! Just Wow! It took these government idiots this long!

Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 10

Some say Fauci and Walensky and Francis Collins and Albert Bourla are criminals and malfeasant and nefarious in what will happen to our children who do not need these COVID jabs and which could seriously harm them. I have tried hard not to conclude but I am leaning there. I think its a combo of ineptness, stupidity, moronity (new word), and malfeasance by US, Canadian health authorities. The government, well their bureaucrats and technocrats are just pure idiotic and pure dumb as rocks. I do want them all held to account one day and soon, in a court room, for they know what they are doing is wrong and has no research or evidentiary basis
.SOURCE 1
SOURCE 2
END

WARNING: If we continue injecting with COVID gene injections that are non-neutralizing (does not stop transmission), then induced vaccinal antibodies will drive emergence of lethal variants

Darwinian natural selection pressure on spike antigen will select for more infectious & potentially more virulent lethal sub-variants (that could be sufficiently different); CDC, FDA, NIH knows this!

Dr. Paul Alexander
Aug 10

This is nothing now other than deliberate malfeasance by these health agencies and their public health leaders as well as CEO’s Bourla and Bancel of Pfizer and Moderna. They know that this COVID gene injection will not work (original antigenic sin and antibody dependent enhancement of infection and disease) and while vaccination may (debatable) protect against clinical symptoms temporarily, strains can still circulate in vaccinated persons and continuously evolve towards greater virulence. We know that the non-neutralizing vaccinal antibodies (via imperfect ‘leaky’ vaccines) have driven the virus to become more infectious to the vaccinee. Fauci et al. are not that stupid. They know what they are doing and it is to keep this pandemic going for 100 years infectious variant after infectious variant.

‘But when vaccines leak, allowing at least some pathogen transmission, they could create the ecological conditions that would allow hot strains to emerge and persist.’

Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Subscribe now

Not all vaccines prevent infection. Some, known as leaky vaccines, prolong host survival or reduce disease symptoms without preventing viral replication and transmission. Although leaky vaccines provide anti-disease benefits to vaccinated individuals, new research by CIDD’s Andrew Read, David Kennedy and colleagues at the Avian Oncogenic Virus Group in the United Kingdom, and The University of New England in Australia, has demonstrated that leaky vaccines can make the situation for unvaccinated individuals worse. Leaky vaccines work by enhancing host immunity to a particular pathogen, without necessarily blocking or slowing viral replication. The result is that infected but vaccinated individuals have extended survival, allowing highly virulent pathogen that would normally reach an evolutionary dead-end in a dead host, can transmit. The evolutionary consequences of high virulence are thus reduced and these pathogens can be selectively favored as a result of leaky vaccination.’

 ‘Leaky’ vaccines may strengthen viruses: study

‘Imperfect Leaky vaccines promote the transmission of more virulent virus

Vaccine Impact

Brilliant deduction!

Top Israeli Scientist: “Monkeypox Outbreak is Linked to mRNA Vaccines” – Twitter Censors Tweet

August 9, 2022 2:01 pm

Pro-vaccine and pro-pharma scientists and medical doctors around the world continue to sound the alarm about the devastating effects of the COVID-19 vaccines. Israeli Professor Shmuel Shapira, MD, MPH, served as director general of the Israel Institute for Biological Research (“IIBR”) between 2013 and 2021, where he sought to develop an Israeli-made COVID-19 vaccine so that the country would not be dependent upon the American Pfizer-made shots. Dr. Shapira is also the founder and head of the Military Medicine Department of the Hebrew University Faculty of Medicine and the IDF Medical Corps. In addition, he is a Senior Research Fellow at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University in Israel. Shapira was previously deputy director general of the Hadassah Medical Organization and director of the Hadassah School of Public Health at Hebrew University.  Professor Shapira used Twitter last week to announce that he was “physically injured” after his third Pfizer vaccine, and that “Monkeypox cases were rare for years. During the last years a single case was documented in Israel. It is well established the mRNA vaccines affect the natural immune system. A monkeypox outbreak following massive covid vaccination: *Is not a coincidence.” Twitter has reportedly forced him to remove these tweets.

Read More…


Japanese Cardiovascular Surgeon Calls for End to COVID-19 Booster Vaccines

August 9, 2022 3:15 pm

Another pro-vaccine and pro-pharma medical doctor has come forward to expose the dangers of the COVID-19 vaccines. Dr. Kenji Yamamoto, a cardiovascular surgeon at Okamura Memorial Hospital in Japan, has published a commentary in the Virology Journal titled: “Adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines and measures to prevent them” He is calling for an end to COVID-19 booster vaccines, due to “waning of immunity with time” and due to the fact that “frequent COVID-19 booster shots could adversely affect the immune response and may not be feasible.”

Read More


GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

VACCINE INJURY/

Milan Sabioncello5:38 PM (2 minutes ago)
to me

end

Milan Sabioncello10:44 AM (33 minutes ago)
to me

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/canadian-doctor-sounds-alarm-over-13-sudden-deaths-among-physicians-since-covid-jab-rollout/

end

MICHAEL EVERY

“Millions Will Freeze This Winter; Or Fall Into Debt To Avoid Doing So”

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 01:45 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yes, today is finally inflation day! Not high unit labor cost inflation day – that was yesterday in the US, which is why markets sold off. Not house price inflation day – that’s every day. I mean actual headline and core US CPI day, where increases in the price of just about everything are likely to be offset by temporary declines in gasoline prices. Yet that still opens the door for a new pre-US mid-terms phase of “sic transitory gloria mundi” back-patting in markets and politics.

We also get inflation in China (CPI and PPI), which will show it is firmly under control. That’s largely because they are pumping out coal and have over-supply and under-demand. However, also note this is an economy where Bloomberg notes that the huge headline trade data are NOT matched by the trade-related money flows recorded by SAFE. There are technical reasons why the two differ, but now the simple message is: “China “bought” lots of goods from abroad, but they have never arrived.” It could be supply-chain related, or it could be capital flight. Either way, don’t trust the simple headline numbers on your screen.   

Indeed, today’s marvelous magical ‘turn around’ in US inflation is because of base effects. The 0.0% m-o-m CPI headline print this July will line up against a far higher print from July 2021. The problem is that the 0.0% is then the base for whatever July 2023 will be – and it will be lucky to be another 0.0%, even this far out, when you look at how the deck is stacked in some regards.

As a parallel, despite potential champagne corks today, UK household power bills are now likely to soar to as much as £4,200 from January, a staggering increase. Indeed, the government, which is not going to do anything about it until a new PM is chosen, holds a “reasonable worst case scenario” (that is “highly unlikely to materialise”) for losing a sixth of the electricity grid, meaning enforced blackouts that will close down rail networks and public buildings. What is highly likely is that millions will freeze this winter; or fall into debts to avoid doing so; and the result will be deflationary demand for everything else, along with cost-push price increases for everything; and yet government help will just mean the latter inflation and less of the former.

(Relatedly, yesterday on Twitter I saw more bitter political satire speaking to how inflation is being handled in the UK, ostensibly through the eyes of a media correspondent from Papua New Guinea. It begins: “To the island of Shakespeare, where energy companies ring 400% profits, and energy consumers are reduced to ringing Jeremy Vine. In the home of blank verse, nobody can afford to use a meter.” It only gets better from there.)   

But don’t worry: headline inflation is slightly lower this month.

Meanwhile, other headlines are about the FBI’s raid on former President Trump’s home. It would appear the potential crime is the removal of classified documents from the White House, a serious, albeit obscure, charge. Yet the declassification of such documents is the president’s prerogative, in which case the issue may not be as it appears.

Clearly, the raid has implications for 2024 because if found guilty, Trump could be barred from seeking federal office. At the same time, the (social) media coverage is again exposing deep polarisation. We have the *very* valid argument that all are equal before the law (even Hunter Biden and Hillary Clinton); on the other, muttering that “If they can go after the former president, they can go after anyone.” Even neutral (and some anti-Trump) observers say that unless concrete charges emerge, all the raid will likely do is cement Trump’s base.

The parallel with the inflation print is that what we see right now is not necessarily what we are going to be seeing in the medium-term.

end

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Interesting: oil slides because Ukraine readies itself to resume Russian crude flow to Europe

(zerohedge)

Oil Slides As Ukraine Readies Resumption Of Russian Crude Flow To Europe

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 06:55 AM

Amid sanctions on Russian payments – which had reportedly stalled the flow of oil into Europe via Ukraine’s pipelines – a Hungarian refiner has paid the transfer fees enabling the spice oil to flow.

Bloomberg reports that Hungarian refiner Mol says it paid Ukraine a transfer fee to restart crude oil flows from Russia to central and eastern European.

“Mol has conducted negotiations with the Ukrainian and Russian parties on the resumption of transport through the Friendship pipeline, and transferred the fee due for the use of the Ukrainian section of the pipeline,” the refiner said in an emailed statement.

“The Ukrainian party has pledged to resume the transport of crude oil within a matter of days, which had been halted a few days ago due to technical issues emerging on the banking front”

Transneft issued a statement saying that Ukraine confirms it is ready to resume transit and oil may resume flowing to Slovakia by the end of Wednesday.

As a reminder, the southern leg of the Druzhba pipeline, which delivers Russian crude through Ukraine to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, halted operations on Aug. 4 after European banks refused to transfer a payment from Transneft to its Ukrainian counterpart Ukrtransnafta JSC amid EU sanctions.

Crude prices extended losses on the news as supply readies to resume with WTI back below $90…

The state of Europe’s energy system remains fragile for sure as the continent is still grappling with constrained supplies of Russian natural gas and low river levels that are hindering the distribution of coal and diesel.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0248 UP  0.0040 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL MIXED 

USA/ YEN 134.99   DOWN 0.195 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2105 UP   0.0034

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 17.41 POINTS UP 0.54%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 392.60 PTS OR 1.46% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.55%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 392.60 PTS OR  1.96% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.41 PTS UP 0.54% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.55% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 180.63 OR 0.65%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1790,55

silver:$20.44

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 105.91  DOWN 35  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.90% DOWN 4  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.190% UP 2     AND 6/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.99%// UP 4   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.98  DOWN 7   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.884% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0337  UP  .01286   or 129 basis points

USA/Japan: 132.58 DOWN 2.609  OR YEN UP 261  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2242  UP  0.01729 OR  173 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0024 OR 107 BASIS pts  to 1.2774

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7237  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7222

TURKISH LIRA:  17.87  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.176

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3  IN basis points from TUESDAY at  2.763% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.034 UP 3  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 104.83 DOWN 1.422   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 18.96 PTS OR  0.25%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 33.44  POINTS OR 0.52%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 165.96 PTS OR 1.23% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 72.00 OR 0.51%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 213.75 PTS OR  0.95%

WTI Oil price 89.84  12: EST

Brent Oil:  95.59 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  60.53  UP 0  AND 41/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.884

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0298 UP .0098     OR  98 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2216 UP .01448  or  145 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 132.98  DOWN 2.226//YEN UP 223 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2783 DOWN 0.01032 (CDN dollar UP 103  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 91.63

Brent OIL:  97,17

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.788 DOWN 1 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.037  UP 3  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.89

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.67   DOWN 0 AND   52/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 535.10 PTS OR 1.63 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 370.16 PTS OR 2.85%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.74 UP 2.03 PTS (9.32)%

GLD: $166.78 DOWN $0.42 OR 0.25%

SLV/ $18.93 UP 2 CENTS OR 0.11%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Spike As Rate-Hike Odds Plunge On CPI Slowdown

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 04:00 PM

The cooler than expected CPI prompted panic ‘ding dong the inflation witch is dead’ buying in stocks and bonds and dumping of hawkish-tilted dollars. Many strategist pointed out this is just one print and inflation remains extremely high but no one in stock-land cared.

Fed’s Evans was rolled out to remind everyone how hawkish The Fed is…

“I expect that we will be increasing rates the rest of this year and into next year to make sure inflation gets back to our 2% objective”, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans says.

While the inflation report for July showed improvement relative to the prior two months, inflation remains “unacceptably high,” Evans says in discussion hosted by Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa

…but that did nothing either…

Stocks soared… Small Caps outperformed (+3%) followed closely by Nasdaq, the S&P, and then The Dow (which still managed a 1.5% gain on the day)…

…as Rate-hike expectations tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

And September 75bs rate-hike odds tumbled from 80% to 30-40%…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX dropped below 20 for the first time since April but we did note something unusual in that VVIX moved higher as VIX tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed on the day with all yields puking lower on the CPI print but the long-end yield surged back higher on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened dramatically after CPI, tagged the pre-payrolls levels then reversed flatter…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar index tumbled on the CPI print…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto spiked on the CPI print with bitcoin rallying back above $24,000 before sliding back in the afternoon…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures spiked on the colder than expected CPI print the gave it all back quickly and then some to end lower on the day…

Oil dropped on the CPI print then ripped back higher after the inventories data…

Finally, ‘meme stocks’ continue to surge, back at almost 4 month highs…

Source: Bloomberg

This won’t end well…

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Soar As Sliding-CPI Sparks Dovish Dump In Rate-Hike Odds

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 08:57 AM

A colder than expected CPI print – driven by slowing energy price gains offsetting continued gains in shelter costs – prompted an immediate knee jerk reaction sending rate-hike odds tumbling.

September went from pricing in an 80% chance of a 75bps hike to around 30% chance instantly…

This prompted wild euphoria in stocks because surely this means The Fed pivot is back on…

And bond yields plunged, led by the short-end (and steepening the curve)…

The dollar dived lower, helping to send commodities higher with oil spiking and gold futures up to $1825…

Just one thing though, as Jason Bloom notes, head of fixed income and alternatives ETF product strategy at Invesco, watch prices going forward:

Good news for stocks and bonds. But watch commodity prices in Q4 and beyond when the SPR release ends and the Ukrainian harvest goes missing. No doubt CPI will begin to trend lower.  But the 2% in 2024 expectation depends largely on a flat to lower commodity price environment.  Highly unlikely in my opinion.”

Michael Pond, head of inflation market strategy at Barclays Plc, says on Bloomberg TV:

“This is a necessary print for the Fed, but it’s not sufficient. We need to see a lot more. You can think about this print sort of like the weather: it’s better today than it has been over the past few days. But it’s still summer. There’s still a lot of humidity.”

Morgan Stanley economists led by Ellen Zentner write:

“Fed officials are unlikely to see this report as a signal to deviate from their steep tightening path we foresee through the end of this year. That said, this report makes a 50 basis points more likely at the September meeting rather than 75, but a lot will depend on the August CPI release next month.

But for now the ammo for the squeeze (or forced participation is there in stocks)

end

Big Inflation Miss Sees Gold Price Spike vs. Plunging Dollar as Rate-Hike Bets Sink

Wednesday, 8/10/2022 14:54

The GOLD PRICE spiked Wednesday by more than 1% to peak above $1800 per ounce for a 2nd day running against a plunging US Dollar after new data from the world’s largest economy said US consumer prices were unchanged overall last month from June thanks to a sharp retreat in gasoline prices.

On an annual basis, headline CPI inflation dropped to 8.5% from June’s 40-year high of 9.0%, slower than the 8.7% predicted by consensus forecasts from analysts.

So-called ‘core’ inflation – excluding fuel and food – held at 5.9% per year, defying analyst forecasts for a rise and half-a-percentage point below the 4-decade highs of February and March.

The news saw the Dollar sink to 5-week lows on its trade- weighted index against the rest of the world’s major currencies, plunging by more than 1% on the news.

The gold price then fell back to unchanged in Dollar terms at $1795 per ounce, making for a steep drop to 2- session lows in Euros and Sterling terms at €1740 and £1470 respectively.

“Less expensive oil is helpful in taming pump prices,” says spokesperson Andrew Gross of motoring association the AAA.

“Couple that with fewer drivers fueling up, and…it’s possible that the national average will fall below $4 this week.”

Pump prices across the USA are already more than 14% below this time in July, according to AAA data.

US crude oil today struggled around $90 per barrel, a new 7.5-year high when reached in the weeks leading up to Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine but almost 30% below early March’s spike towards the record highs of mid-2008.

Chart of WTI crude oil, year-on-year % change (right) vs. CPI inflation. Source: St.Louis Fed

China’s cost of living also missed analyst forecasts for July, new data said Wednesday, putting headline inflation at 2.7% – up from June’s 2.5% per year but shy of the 2.9% expected – with ‘core’ inflation slowing almost 2 percentage points to 4.2% rather than jumping to 8.0% as the consensus outlook had predicted.

World No.4 economy Germany in contrast confirmed that its CPI inflation rate held at 8.5% in July, just shy of May’s 4-decade record on the European Union’s harmonized measure.

December contracts for natural gas in Western Europe – which relies on now-sanctioned Russia for almost 2/5ths of its gas imports – today rose more than 6.5% to approach last week’s fresh lifetime highs, costing more than 7 times as much as they did 12 months ago today.

The UK government is preparing contingency plans for an energy shortage in New Year 2023, news reports said Wednesday, including 4-day blackouts for industry and possibly households too.

Bond yields whipped violently around today’s US inflation data, edging towards multi-week highs ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release but then falling back to push longer-term borrowing costs higher once more, back towards last night’s close at 2.75% on conventional US 10-year Treasury debt and 0.31% on inflation-protected TIPS.

Western stock markets rose in contrast, reversing an earlier drop in Europe after Chinese tech stocks led a sharp drop in Asia.

“Inflation slowed in July, showing Fed’s rate hikes are working,” says a headline at CBS.

The Federal Reserve last month raised its overnight interest rate to a ceiling of 2.5% per annum.

Betting in the interest-rate futures market sank today on the Fed making a 3rd consecutive hike of 0.75 percentage points at its September meeting, dropping from over 60% to barely 40% of the market and pricing the odds of a smaller half-point hike at the strongest in 3 weeks.

ii) USA DATA//

USA CPI slows down a bit but real wages continues to tumble.  We should witness from this point continual slow down in inflation gains

(zerohedge)

US Consumer Price Inflation Slows In July, Real Wages Continue To Tumble

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 08:35 AM

While analysts expected another rise on a MoM basis, the headline US Consumer Price Inflation was expected to slow from +9.1% YoY to +8.7% YoY in July, but it actually slowed significantly more than expected to +8.5% Yoy (flat MoM). This is the end of a 16 month streak of MoM gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI (ex food and energy) however was expected to re-accelerate (rising from +5.9% YoY to +6.1% YoY in July), but instead it continued to decelerate to 5.9% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, real average weekly earnings continues to plunge, now down 16 straight months as inflation eats away at any wage gains…

Source: Bloomberg

end

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iii)a.  USA economic stories

Big story: Ford increases EV truck prices by up to $7,000 due to significant material costs

(zerohedge)

“Significant Material Cost Increases”: Ford Hikes Prices Of EV Truck By Up To $7,000

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 08:20 AM

Ford Motor Company is the latest automaker to announce a price hike for its electric vehicle (EV) due to “significant material cost increases and other factors.” 

The Detroit automaker adjusted the MSRP on the F-150 Lightning for the first time since it was revealed in the spring of 2021. Since then, industrial metal prices for batteries, including nickel, manganese, cobalt, and lithium, have jumped, forcing the automaker to raise the new EV truck prices by up to $7,000, depending on the model. 

F-150 Lightning’s new MSRP is now between $47,000 to $97,000, up from approximately $40,000 to $92,000 — prices exclude destination/delivery fee plus government fees and taxes, any finance charges, any dealer processing charge, any electronic filing charge, and any emission testing charge. 

“Current order holders awaiting delivery are not impacted by these price adjustments,” Marin Gjaja, chief customer officer, said in a press release. “We’ve announced pricing ahead of re-opening order banks so our reservation holders can make an informed decision around ordering a Lightning.”

Ford is not the only automaker boosting EV prices. Tesla, Inc. hiked the prices of its EVs earlier this summer following a surge in nickel prices. General Motors increased the cost of the Hummer EV by $6,250, and Rivian Automotive and Lucid also boosted the prices of their vehicles. 

Research firm AlixPartners recently told clients that EV battery materials more than doubled during the virus pandemic. 

Commodity inflation and supply-chain disruptions have pushed average EV prices out of range for the everyday driver: 

“EVs thus far have been purchased by the most affluent consumers and mostly expensive models,” said Michelle Krebs, executive analyst at Cox Automotive, which conducts market research for dealers.

Kelly Blue Book’s sales data for average MSRP EV prices for June was around $67,000, exceeding the level of the average gasoline car MSRP of about $48,000. 

The Senate passed legislation on Sunday allowing automakers to keep offering up to $7,000 in tax credits for EVs. The House plans to interrupt summer break to reconvene on Friday to clear the bill, sending it to President Biden’s desk for signature. 

Even with tax incentives, EVs are still unaffordable for many Americans despite the Biden administration’s commitment to decarbonizing transportation. Biden recently said his 2030 goal is to have half of all new light-duty vehicles sold in the US as EVs, including “battery electric, fuel cell electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.”

end

Inflation Reduction Act Will Increase Middle Class, Small-Business Taxes: Tax Law Expert

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 10:17 AM

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

While Democrats insist that the Inflation Reduction Act won’t boost taxes on people making less than $400,000 a year, collateral effects from the legislation will cause workers and small businesses alike to pay more, according to Preston Brashers, a senior tax policy analyst at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) speaks during a news conference about the Inflation Reduction Act outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Aug. 4, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

The measure, hammered out as a compromise agreement between moderate Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), serves to fulfill a series of broad Democratic aspirations: increasing federal revenue by closing so-called tax loopholes, enacting climate change policies, expanding the Affordable Care Act, and reducing prescription drug prices.

Its supporters say the legislation also will help to slow the growth of the ballooning U.S. national debt by decreasing the deficit.

While it authorizes about $433 billion in new spending, Democrats’ internal estimates suggest that the bill will bring in around $725 billion in new revenue to the federal government, thus reducing the federal deficit and slowing the growth of the national debt. Specifically, Democrats estimate that the bill will reduce the deficit by about $292 billion annually.

The bill won’t directly increase taxes on individuals at any income level, Brashers told The Epoch Times. The most substantial change will be a modification of corporate taxes, setting a mandatory minimum rate of 15 percent on corporations making $1 billion or more annually.

There’s nothing in here specifically targeting income levels,” Brashers said. “They’re not targeting people making $400,000 or more.

Neither, Brashers said, are they targeting businesses necessarily.

“A brand can’t pay a tax,” he said. “Technically, legally, the corporations are the ones paying taxes, but ultimately that has to be paid by people, one way or the other. It’s not like Jeff Bezos—if you tax Amazon—that this is coming out of Jeff Bezos’s pocket.

“It’s coming out of everyone’s pocket that’s involved in that operation, whether you’re a worker, if you buy the products, if you have any stock in the companies, if you have a 401(k).

“Basically, what they’re doing, they’re applying these taxes and they’re not specifically hitting lower-income people. What they’re doing is they’re applying general taxes across the whole economy, and so everyone’s gonna be caught up in it.

“These are gonna be taxes that are just kind of economy-wide.”

In addition, Brashers argued that through indirect effects, individuals below the $400,000 threshold will see an increase in how much they pay.

There’s no way to take … [Democrats’] claim about $400,000 seriously,” Brashers began, when asked about the truth of the assertion.

“You can quibble with details, but there’s simply no way you can say that these taxes are being exclusively paid by people making $400,000 [or more]. There’s no way you can say that because none of these taxes are being applied to people making $400,000. So you have to look at this as—some of these taxes are gonna hit labor, some portion of that might be shifted off to capital.”

But laborers will be hardest-hit, Brashers said. While investors are able to leave U.S. markets to invest in foreign markets like China, where such rules aren’t in place, laborers “are kinda stuck where [they] are.”

In addition to the economy-wide effects of the new corporate minimum tax, Brashers noted, the bill also contains provisions related to the IRS.

They’re expanding enforcement of [tax law by the IRS], they’re going to expand audits on individuals and businesses,” he said, noting the appropriation of $80 billion to bulk up the IRS.

Proponents of the bill suggest that, in addition to the new tax code changes, a bulkier IRS will bring in an additional $124 billion annually through enforcement efforts.

The funding for the IRS will go toward “necessary expenses for tax enforcement activities … to determine and collect owed taxes, to provide legal and litigation support, to conduct criminal investigations (including investigative technology), to provide digital asset monitoring and compliance activities, to enforce criminal statutes related to violations of internal revenue laws and other financial crimes … and to provide other services.”

Brashers argued that the IRS expansion will affect lower-income individuals and small businesses.

If you look at the [dispersion] of audits right now, there’s a lot of audits that happen on the lower end,” he said. “Especially on the business side: if you’re a small business, a sole proprietor—if you’re running your own books—a lot of times the IRS looks at that as a prime target because you don’t have the accountants that are keeping everything buttoned down necessarily.

“If you’re a sole proprietor and you’re keeping your own books … it’s probably just gonna be harder for you to keep up with the convoluted tax code.

“So, if anything, more of that weight is probably gonna hit small businesses.”

After a marathon session to vote on amendments, the Senate approved the bill in a party-line 51–50 vote on Aug. 7. The Democrat-led House is expected to approve the measure before sending it to President Joe Biden for his signature.

end

Humour!!

Every Single Senate Democrat Just Voted Against Defining Pregnancy As A Biologically Female Process

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 11:05 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

During the passage of Joe Biden’s ‘Inflation Increasing Reduction Act’ in the Senate Sunday, all 50 Democrats voted against an amendment that sought to define pregnancy as a uniquely biologically female process.

The amendment was introduced by GOP Senator Marco Rubio, who noted “The only people capable of being pregnant are biological females, and therefore, I think federal pregnancy programs should be limited to biological females, and that’s what this would do.”

“A few minutes ago, I looked back across 5,500 years of human history, and so far, every single human pregnancy has been biological female,” Rubio continued.

The Senator further stated “And therefore, the only thing I’m trying to do is make sure that federal law is clear, since every pregnancy that’s ever existed has been in a biological females, and that our federal laws reflect that pregnancy programs are available to the only people who are capable of getting pregnant: biological females.”

Democratic Senator Patty Murray responded to Rubio, stating “it’s actually outrageous that Republicans are trying to talk about pregnancy when in this country right now, they are forcing women to stay pregnant no matter their circumstances, pushing cruel and extreme abortion bans.”

Watch:

While all 50 Republicans voted in favour, all 50 Democrats voted against.

Which one is the ‘party of science‘ again?

*  *  *

Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues

SWAMP STORIES

The truth behind the Jan 6 committee hearing

Paul Sperry/Epoch Times

Sperry: Lies, Damned Lies, And The Jan. 6 Committee

TUESDAY, AUG 09, 2022 – 11:25 PM

Authored by Paul Sperry via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Select Committee to Investigate Jan. 6 has adjourned for a well-deserved summer break. Misleading the public is exhausting work.Members of the U.S. House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the United States Capitol are seen during the fifth public hearing of the committee in Washington on June 23, 2022. (Jim Bourg/Reuters)

A careful review of the official transcripts of its eight long hearings shows the committee repeatedly made connections that weren’t there, took events and quotes out of context, exaggerated the violence of the Capitol rioters, and omitted key exculpatory evidence otherwise absolving former President Donald Trump of guilt. While in some cases, it lied by omission, in others, it lied outright. It also made a number of unsubstantiated charges based on the secondhand accounts—hearsay testimony—of a young witness with serious credibility problems.

These weren’t off-the-cuff remarks. Panelists didn’t misspeak. Their statements were tightly scripted and loaded into teleprompters, which they read verbatim.

In other words, the committee deliberately chummed out disinformation to millions of viewers of not just cable TV, but also the Big Three TV networks—ABC, CBS, and NBC—which agreed to preempt regular daytime and even primetime programming to air the Democratic-run hearings. And because Democrats refused to allow dissenting voices on the panel or any cross-examination of witnesses, viewers had no reference points to understand how they, along with the two Trump-hating Republicans they allowed on the committee, shaded the truth.

This charade of an honest investigation appears to have had the desired effect. Polls show the Jan. 6 hearings hurt Trump, who plans to run again, with independents. Unaffiliated voters have grown more likely to blame Trump for the Capitol riot and to show support for Democrats in the midterms, according to a new Morning Consult/Politico survey.

With the November elections fast approaching, Democrats plan to hold another round of hearings next month, hoping voters pay even closer attention. With that in mind, it’s important to examine the false claims and distortions they no doubt will repeat. They are legion. Here’s the fact-checking the viewing public—and the electorate—thus far has been denied.

CLAIM: While committee Chair Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) excoriated Trump for not calling off the Capitol rioters earlier, he claimed they were “savagely beating and killing law enforcement officers,” according to the transcript of his remarks from the prime-time July 21 hearing, carried live by the networks.

FACTNo police officer was killed during the riot.

CLAIM: During the same hearing, committee member Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) faulted Trump for his “glaring silence” about the “tragic death of Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick, who succumbed to his injuries” suffered during the riot.

FACT: The D.C. medical examiner ruled Sicknick died of “natural causes,” not injuries, well after the riot. Luria seemed to perpetuate false rumors started by The New York Times that Sicknick was struck with a fire extinguisher, a fable debunked by both the coroner and the Sicknick family.

CLAIM: Thompson asserted Trump “summoned” a mob that was “heavily armed and angry.”

FACT: Not a single gun was recovered in the riot. For that matter, the only gun used during the four-hour melee was fired by a Capitol police officer, who killed an unarmed rioter, Ashli Babbitt—whose name was never mentioned in any of the hearings. Despite airing endless footage of rioters breaching the Capitol and fighting police, the committee omitted footage of USCP Lt. Michael Byrd shooting Babbitt from behind a doorway without warning, which was the most violent incident that occurred that day.

CLAIM: The committee put a former far-right extremist on as a witness to testify that rioters built “a gallows” to allegedly hang then-Vice President Mike Pence.

FACT:  The witness, Jason Van Tatenhove, wasn’t at the Capitol that day. He had no insider knowledge about the purpose of the flimsy wooden structure erected across from the Capitol. In any case, it was a mock gallows, not a functional one. Even the New York Times recently acknowledged it “was too small to be used.”

CLAIM: Committee Vice Chair Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) proclaimed in the hearing curtain-raiser—also held in primetime and broadcast live by all three networks—that the panel had evidence Trump said Pence “deserves” to be hanged, a chilling claim if true. “Aware of the rioters’ chants to hang Mike Pence,” she asserted, “the president responded with this sentiment: ‘Maybe our supporters have the right idea,’ Mike Pence quote ‘deserves it.’”

FACT: Her “evidence” turned out to be a secondhand retelling by witness Cassidy Hutchinson, a White House assistant fresh out of college who overheard a paraphrasing of what Trump may have thought about the chants, not a direct Trump quote as Cheney implied. Hutchinson later testified Trump said, “something to the effect of,” Pence “deserves it.”

CLAIM: Hutchinson also swore she wrote a note dictated by then-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows suggesting a more forceful White House response to the riot.

FACT: Former White House lawyer Eric Herschmann insisted that he actually wrote the note, not Hutchinson, adding a serious chink in her credibility as the committee’s star witness. “The handwritten note that Cassidy Hutchinson testified was written by her was in fact written by Eric Herschmann on January 6, 2021,” said a spokesperson for Herschmann, who noted that Herschmann told the committee that in his deposition. The panel never informed the public that Hutchinson’s claim was disputed.

CLAIM: Based on Hutchinson’s testimony, the committee also claimed that former White House counsel Pat Cipollone said Trump’s plan to march to the Capitol would cause Trump officials to be “charged with every crime imaginable.”

FACT: Cipollone didn’t corroborate the claim in his sworn deposition before the committee.

CLAIM: The committee relied on another second-hand account by Hutchinson to broadcast to the world the alleged bombshell that Trump tried to physically commandeer his Secret Service limo to the Capitol. “When the president got in ‘The Beast’ … he thought they were going up to the Capitol,” Hutchinson testified, relaying what she’d heard from a security official who had heard it from another source. But when Trump was told he had to go back to the White House, she continued, Trump got “irate” and said “something to the effect of ‘I’m the [expletive] president, take me to the Capitol now,’” and proceeded to “grab at the steering wheel.” She claimed he even “lunged” at a Secret Service agent inside the vehicle.

FACT: Trump rode in a different motorcade vehicle than “The Beast” that day (an SUV, not the famous Cadillac limo), and several Secret Service agents have denied any physical altercation took place, casting further doubt on Hutchinson’s reliability as a key witness for the panel (records show she kept working for Trump in his post-presidential office for nine weeks after he left the White House, even though she claimed to be “disgusted” by what happened on Jan. 6, which she said was based on “a lie” peddled by Trump that the election was stolen). After pushback from the Secret Service, the committee leaked to CNN that a D.C. police officer “has corroborated” Hutchinson’s testimony. But when DCPD Sgt. Mark Robinson testified in the final hearing, he failed to corroborate her tale of Trump grabbing the steering wheel or lunging at a member of his security detail. “The only description I received was that the president was upset and was adamant about going to the Capitol and there was a heated discussion about that,” Robinson said.

CLAIM: Throughout the hearings, the committee cited Trump’s speech at the Ellipse as the spark that ignited the riot. “There can be no doubt that [Trump] commanded a mob, a mob he knew was heavily armed, violent, and angry, to march on the Capitol to try to stop the peaceful transfer of power,” Thompson said in the last hearing. Emphasized Luria: “Donald Trump summoned a violent mob and promised to lead that mob to the Capitol.”

FACT: While Trump did urge supporters to “walk” with him down to the Capitol after the rally, he specifically asked them to do so “peacefully.” The committee left that key exculpatory phrase out of the hearings. It never aired the footage or transcript of him saying, “I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.” If it had, it would have ruined the carefully crafted narrative that Trump incited violence. The omission was a critical deception.

CLAIM: In the opening hearing, Cheney read out loud a tweet Trump sent during the riot in which he said, “These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long.” She claimed Trump was justifying more violence.

FACT: But Cheney cut off the next line where Trump called for “peace” and told supporters to leave the Capitol. “Go home with love & in peace,” the rest of the tweet said. Cheney blinded millions of viewers watching to the full picture.

CLAIM: Cheney, who faces a Trump-endorsed challenger in her Aug. 16 primary race, kicked off the hearing with a bold charge: “President Trump summoned a violent mob and directed them illegally to march on the United States Capitol.” She vowed to show “evidence” to back it up. Thompson said they would prove that Trump was “at the center” of a “seditious conspiracy.”

FACT: Not only did they fail to deliver any hard evidence that Trump ordered rioters to attack the Capitol as part of a conspiracy, they also began to contradict themselves as the hearings progressed. Thompson later said Trump merely “spurred” the mob and “energized” extremists, which is quite different from directing them. In an unintended revelation, one of their witnesses presented a timeline that suggested the instigators of the breaches of the Capitol had already headed to the Capitol before Trump spoke at the Ellipse. Documentarian Nick Quested testified the Proud Boys marched to the Capitol at 10:30 a.m., which meant Trump couldn’t possibly have incited them. “I was confused to a certain extent why we were walking away from the President’s speech,” said Quested, who was embedded with the Proud Boys.

Despite taking more than 1,000 depositions and subpoenaing more than 140,000 documents, the committee never found a smoking gun proving Trump was involved in a top-down organization of the riot. There was no coordination or conspiracy, which tracks with what the Biden Justice Department has found. Of the 874 criminal cases prosecutors have brought against Trump supporters at the Jan. 6 riot, none of them names Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator.

But don’t take my word for it.

Read more here…

end

the raid on Trump

Trumps Reveal How FBI Raid Went Down, Former Prez Suggests ‘Planted’ Evidence

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 02:05 PM

The Trumps have revealed more about Monday’s FBI raid of their Mar-a-Lago property.

For starters, Eric Trump told the Daily Mail that “the 30 agents who arrived at the property asked staff to turn security cameras off – and to kick their lawyer off the property, but they refused.”

“They told our lawyer… you have to leave the property right now. Turn off all security cameras.”

Eric also said “They would not give her the search warrant,” adding “So they showed it to her from about 10 feet away. They would not give her a copy of the search warrant.”

He also said that the FBI brought safe crackers in to break into his father’s safe, and that agents rummaged through Melania Trump’s wardrobe.

“It’s all a coordinated attack with the FBI,” said the former president’s son, insisting that President Biden approved the raid.

“Do you think that the FBI director is going to raid the former president’s house, especially a house as you know, kind of world renowned as Mar Lago is in a place as public as Mar Lago is without getting the approval of President [Biden]?”

By not turning off the security cameras, Eric said they saw the FBI raiding areas of the property that they ‘shouldn’t have been.’

Donald Trump lamented Wednesday that the FBI blocked his lawyers from the property during the raid at his Palm Beach, Florida residence and suggested that agents may have ‘planted’ evidence. -Daily Mail

Donald Trump, meanwhile, suggested in a Wednesday post to his Truth Social page that the FBI may have planted evidence.

“The FBI and others from the Federal Government would not let anyone, including my lawyers, be anywhere near the areas that were rummaged and otherwise looked at during the raid on Mar-a-Lago,” he wrote. “Everyone was asked to leave the premises, they wanted to be left alone, without any witnesses to see what they were doing, taking or, hopefully not, ‘planting,’” he added.

As the Epoch Times notes, About two dozen FBI agents entered the Trump-owned resort at 9 a.m. Monday and left with “a handful of boxes of documents,” Trump spokeswoman Christina Bobb told The Epoch Times on Tuesday. “I didn’t actually get to oversee the search, they wouldn’t let anybody see what they were doing,” she said, adding that she was present when the FBI entered the premises.

FBI agents were looking for “what they deemed to be presidential records,” Bobb continued. “I don’t think there was anything of substance.”

Background

Bruce Reinhart, a Florida federal magistrate judge, signed off on a warrant to search the former president’s Florida property.

Reinhart worked as a federal prosecutor until 2008 when he became a defense attorney representing employees of convicted sex trafficker and wealthy financier Jeffrey Epstein. Employees included Epstein’s pilots, a scheduler, and others

The Mar-a-Lago raid warrant was issued on Aug. 5, a day after FBI Director Christopher Wray testified to the Senate Judiciary Committee and was asked about whistleblower reports on whether his agency was becoming increasingly politicized. Wray had to cut the questioning short because he needed to travel, although flight records indicated that he used an FBI jet to travel to a vacation retreat in Upstate New York, according to the New York Post.

In mid-January, the National Archives and Records Administration arranged for the transport from Mar-a-Lago to the National Archives 15 boxes that the archives said contained presidential records. Under the Presidential Records Act, the records should have been transferred in January 2021 as Trump left office, and some of the boxes contained classified information, the institution said in a statement at the time.

Agents initially resisted showing Bobb the warrant but ultimately did. But the agents would not allow any representatives of the former president to oversee the search, Bobb said. The justification for the search also remains under seal. Trump’s legal team plans on asking the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida to unseal the search warrant affidavit, which would outline why authorities asked for the warrant.

The Epoch Times contacted the FBI for comment. Neither the bureau nor Attorney General Merrick Garland have offered public comments about the raid, drawing even questions and condemnation from Democrat politicians.

The Department of Justice “must immediately explain the reason for its raid & it must be more than a search for inconsequential archives or it will be viewed as a political tactic and undermine any future credible investigation & legitimacy of January 6 investigations,” wrote former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a longtime critic of Trump, said on Twitter Tuesday.

“DOJ must disclose the bona fide nature of the August 8 action or else the republicans will use it to Discredit the Jan 6 investigation, which would be a terrible disservice to the good work of the house committee in exposing The Trump administration violations,” the former Democrat governor of New York added. Cuomo last year resigned amid allegations he engaged in misconduct with staffers, which Cuomo has categorically denied.

And Republicans similarly said they were concerned with the raid.

“Last night’s raid on the home of a former U.S. president without explanation will only further erode confidence in the FBI and the Justice Department,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) wrote Tuesday in reference to the Monday search.

“I reiterated these concerns to Director Wray today,” he continued. “If the FBI isn’t extraordinarily transparent about its justification for yesterday’s actions and committed to rooting out political bias that has infected their most sensitive investigations, they will have sealed their own fate. The FBI’s mission and the many patriotic agents who work hard to carry it out will be forever overshadowed by the distrust the bureau has sown.”

end

FBI Had Mole Inside Mar-A-Lago: Report

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 05:01 PM

Update (1700ET): According to Newsweek, the FBI had a ‘confidential human source’ (a mole) inside Mar-a-Lago, who was “able to identify what classified documents former President Trump was still hiding and even the location of those documents.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1557465903335280641&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Ftrumps-reveal-how-fbi-raid-went-down-former-prez-suggests-planted-evidence&sessionId=ceac6eb003413d0c109a70a3198086d280fb6a83&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=b7df0f50e1ec1%3A1659558317797&width=550px

*  *  *

The Trumps have revealed more about Monday’s FBI raid of their Mar-a-Lago property.

For starters, Eric Trump told the Daily Mail that “the 30 agents who arrived at the property asked staff to turn security cameras off – and to kick their lawyer off the property, but they refused.”

“They told our lawyer… you have to leave the property right now. Turn off all security cameras.”

Eric also said “They would not give her the search warrant,” adding “So they showed it to her from about 10 feet away. They would not give her a copy of the search warrant.”

He also said that the FBI brought safe crackers in to break into his father’s safe, and that agents rummaged through Melania Trump’s wardrobe.

“It’s all a coordinated attack with the FBI,” said the former president’s son, insisting that President Biden approved the raid.

“Do you think that the FBI director is going to raid the former president’s house, especially a house as you know, kind of world renowned as Mar Lago is in a place as public as Mar Lago is without getting the approval of President [Biden]?”

By not turning off the security cameras, Eric said they saw the FBI raiding areas of the property that they ‘shouldn’t have been.’

Donald Trump lamented Wednesday that the FBI blocked his lawyers from the property during the raid at his Palm Beach, Florida residence and suggested that agents may have ‘planted’ evidence. -Daily Mail

Donald Trump, meanwhile, suggested in a Wednesday post to his Truth Social page that the FBI may have planted evidence.

“The FBI and others from the Federal Government would not let anyone, including my lawyers, be anywhere near the areas that were rummaged and otherwise looked at during the raid on Mar-a-Lago,” he wrote. “Everyone was asked to leave the premises, they wanted to be left alone, without any witnesses to see what they were doing, taking or, hopefully not, ‘planting,’” he added.

As the Epoch Times notes, About two dozen FBI agents entered the Trump-owned resort at 9 a.m. Monday and left with “a handful of boxes of documents,” Trump spokeswoman Christina Bobb told The Epoch Times on Tuesday. “I didn’t actually get to oversee the search, they wouldn’t let anybody see what they were doing,” she said, adding that she was present when the FBI entered the premises.

FBI agents were looking for “what they deemed to be presidential records,” Bobb continued. “I don’t think there was anything of substance.”

Background

Bruce Reinhart, a Florida federal magistrate judge, signed off on a warrant to search the former president’s Florida property.

Reinhart worked as a federal prosecutor until 2008 when he became a defense attorney representing employees of convicted sex trafficker and wealthy financier Jeffrey Epstein. Employees included Epstein’s pilots, a scheduler, and others

The Mar-a-Lago raid warrant was issued on Aug. 5, a day after FBI Director Christopher Wray testified to the Senate Judiciary Committee and was asked about whistleblower reports on whether his agency was becoming increasingly politicized. Wray had to cut the questioning short because he needed to travel, although flight records indicated that he used an FBI jet to travel to a vacation retreat in Upstate New York, according to the New York Post.

In mid-January, the National Archives and Records Administration arranged for the transport from Mar-a-Lago to the National Archives 15 boxes that the archives said contained presidential records. Under the Presidential Records Act, the records should have been transferred in January 2021 as Trump left office, and some of the boxes contained classified information, the institution said in a statement at the time.

Agents initially resisted showing Bobb the warrant but ultimately did. But the agents would not allow any representatives of the former president to oversee the search, Bobb said. The justification for the search also remains under seal. Trump’s legal team plans on asking the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida to unseal the search warrant affidavit, which would outline why authorities asked for the warrant.

The Epoch Times contacted the FBI for comment. Neither the bureau nor Attorney General Merrick Garland have offered public comments about the raid, drawing even questions and condemnation from Democrat politicians.

The Department of Justice “must immediately explain the reason for its raid & it must be more than a search for inconsequential archives or it will be viewed as a political tactic and undermine any future credible investigation & legitimacy of January 6 investigations,” wrote former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a longtime critic of Trump, said on Twitter Tuesday.

“DOJ must disclose the bona fide nature of the August 8 action or else the republicans will use it to Discredit the Jan 6 investigation, which would be a terrible disservice to the good work of the house committee in exposing The Trump administration violations,” the former Democrat governor of New York added. Cuomo last year resigned amid allegations he engaged in misconduct with staffers, which Cuomo has categorically denied.

And Republicans similarly said they were concerned with the raid.

“Last night’s raid on the home of a former U.S. president without explanation will only further erode confidence in the FBI and the Justice Department,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) wrote Tuesday in reference to the Monday search.

“I reiterated these concerns to Director Wray today,” he continued. “If the FBI isn’t extraordinarily transparent about its justification for yesterday’s actions and committed to rooting out political bias that has infected their most sensitive investigations, they will have sealed their own fate. The FBI’s mission and the many patriotic agents who work hard to carry it out will be forever overshadowed by the distrust the bureau has sown.”

END

Trump Critics Say FBI Mar-a-Lago Raid May Have Handed Him GOP Nomination, “Potentially The Presidency”

WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 – 03:55 PM

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times,

The FBI’s raid of the former president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate “handed” the 2024 Republican presidential nomination to Trump and prompted moderate Republicans to vote for him, according to Joe Walsh, a former Republican congressman and a critic of Trump.

Trump announced that his Florida property was “under siege” and “occupied by a group of FBI agents” in a statement late on Aug. 8, calling it evidence of “prosecutorial misconduct” and a “weaponization of the Justice System.”

The raid was not announced and was motivated because Democrats do not want Trump to run again for president in 2024, the former president said.

Walsh, who applauded the FBI’s raid on Twitter, said the move angered many GOP voters and pushed them to campaign and vote for Trump.

“I’ve heard from so many GOP voters tonight who were cooling a bit these past few months on Trump but who are so pissed off about this raid and are back to completely & enthusiastically all in with their support for him,” Walsh later wrote in an Aug. 8 post.

‘Handed’ Trump the Nomination

In another post, Walsh said the FBI’s move handed the GOP nomination to Trump.

“Both things are true: 1. The Justice Department’s job is to pursue justice & uphold the rule of law. And they should NEVER let politics get in the way of that. Yesterday, they did their job. 2. What happened yesterday handed the 2024 GOP nomination to Donald Trump,” he said on Twitter.

Trump hasn’t formally announced his presidential bid despite growing confirmation that he will run for the White House again in 2024. On Aug. 7, Trump hinted again about his potential 2024 presidential bid but stopped short of announcing a run.

On Aug. 8, FBI agents raided the resort.

Supporters of former President Donald Trump stand outside his residence in Mar-A-Lago, Palm Beach, Florida on Aug. 8, 2022. (Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images)

Eric Trump, one of Trump’s sons, said the raid was conducted to see whether his father possessed any documents from his time in office, adding that the former president has been cooperating with the National Archives on the matter for months.

“The purpose for the raid, from what they said, was because the National Archives wanted to corroborate whether or not Donald Trump had any documents in his possession,” Eric Trump said on Fox News.

However, Walsh said if the FBI’s raid “is just about 15 boxes of classified material Trump took down to Mar-a-Lago, this will absolutely enrage his supporters and only strengthen Trump within the GOP.”

He added the former president is “definitely announcing he’s running in early Sept.”

Several other critics of Trump also expressed the same viewpoint.

Former Democratic New York City mayoral candidate and presidential candidate Andrew Yang, who recently formed a new political partysaid while he hopes Trump “as far away from the White House as possible,” the FBI’s raid “strengthens that case for millions of Americans who will see this as unjust persecution.”

Alyssa Farah Griffin, former White House communications director who is now extraordinarily critical of Trump, said on CNN’s “New Day” that she hopes the raid “goes beyond simply not complying with some archiving laws.”

Otherwise, the “DOJ just handed Donald Trump the Republican nominee and potentially the presidency,” Griffin, also CNN’s political commentator, said on Tuesday.

“If it’s seen as some sort of massive overreach and not something incredibly serious, this is a very good day for Donald Trump.”

The FBI has declined to comment on the raid. The Department of Justice has not returned an inquiry. A White House official told The Epoch Times in an email it was not notified of the raid before it took place.

King report

The King Report August 10, 2022 Issue 6819Independent View of the News
 US Q2 productivity sank 4.6% q/q, -4.3% was consensus.  Productivity tumbled 7.4% in Q1.  Unit Labor Costs surged 10.8% q/q; 9.5% was expected.  Hours worked declined 2.6%!  Output declined 2.1%.  The wage inflation with the productivity tumble makes the Fed’s inflation restraint task tougher.
 
Anyone that was around in the Seventies or early Eighties will recall that the Fed dreads wage inflation due to the economic concept of Sticky Wages.  The precept holds that it is relatively easy for the Fed to halt commodity inflation and inventory accumulation, but halting wage inflation requires economic pain.
 
SF Fed: The recent rise in household year-ahead inflation expectations could lead to substantially higher wage inflation in the short run… our estimated wage Phillips curve suggests current household one-year-ahead expectations could add nearly 2.3 percentage points to wage inflation. To the extent that companies raise prices and pass on the higher labor cost to consumers, our results point to an important upside risk to inflation. To mitigate this cost increase, companies could decide to automate or offshore some jobs, although higher tariffs and supply-chain challenges make offshoring more costly than in the past… https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/august/will-workers-demand-cost-of-living-adjustments/
 
The US 2-10 yield curve inversion hit 49bps on Tuesday morning.
 
MU stock slides amid slashing its Q4 forecast for chip sales and plans to invest $40 billion in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing. (Q4 Rev at or below low end of $6.88B-$7.6B) https://t.co/OEYL9B2h0g
 
Micron’s Warning Adds to Evidence of Collapsing Chip Demand
It warned investors that revenue won’t meet projections, sending industry stocks tumbling…
    The company said early Tuesday that fourth-quarter sales are expected to be at the low end of or below its previous guidance as customers reduce their stockpiles of unused chips. There will be “significant sequential declines in revenue and margins,” Micron said in a regulatory filing. Micron shares fell as much as 5.8%, and the benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index dropped 4.2%…
    The prospects for the chip industry are dimming on a day that was supposed to herald a renaissance in semiconductor manufacturing in the US with President Joe Biden signing the Chips and Science Act. That $52 billion stimulus package is designed to make it cheaper for companies to build domestic factories and help counteract the loss of the crucial skill set to Asia…
    Instead, Micron followed Intel’s lead and said it plans to reduce its capital spending on new plants and equipment this year and projected capital expenditures will be “down meaningfully” from a year earlier…  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-adds-growing-evidence-chip-144849514.html
 
Biden heralded the $52B gift to semiconductor companies – so that they can build US plants – while a chip glut is forcing semiconductor companies to cut production and capex plans! 
 
Micron’s Q4 forecast reduction put a pall on tech stocks and Fangs.
 
ESUs opened modestly higher when Asian open.  ESUs and stocks then trade sideways until they broke down at 6:08 ET.  ESUs and stocks then did a zigzag decline until ESUs hit a daily low of 4114.25 at 11:02 ET.  Old World traders then forced stuff higher for the 11:30 ET European close.
 
After Europe closed, the 20-handle ESU manipulation to embellish ‘the marks’ reversed.  The decline stalled when ESUs got near the daily low.  After a modest A-B-C rally developed when the afternoon arrived, ESUs and stocks retreated and hit new daily lows at 13:43 ET.
 
Another rally pushed ESUs 12 handles higher.  Then this appeared: Microsoft Asks Teams to Rein in Some Expenses, Sources Say – WSJ    ESUs and stocks then slid to new daily lows.  The pre-last hour rally appeared on schedule; it became an A-B-C rally.  It ended at 15:27 ET.  ESUs and stocks then slid until someone boosted ESUs at 15:57 ET.
 
As we postulated for Tuesday, equities traded sideways ahead of the July CPI Report.  The S&P 500 Index traded within a 25-handle range in choppy action.
 
Biden coughs through CHIPS bill signing speech after COVID-19 isolation
Biden could barely utter one sentence without stopping to cough for minutes on end. Despite the coughing fit and Biden blowing his nose, attendees still gathered around his desk for photos and shook hands with him after the speech…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coughs-through-chips-bill-signing-speech-covid-isolation
 
@SteveGuest: All it takes is like 5 seconds for Joe Biden to forget he shook Chuck Schumer’s hand.
https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1557011318175047680
 
White House tries again to rebrand Biden, this time as ‘dark Brandon’
The second image tweeted by Bates included eagle imagery resembling the logo used by the Nazi Party in the 1930s.  “Personally, I’m not surprised that you’re tweeting out Nazi eagle imagery of your boss who reminisces about his segregationist ‘mentor,'” Abigail Marone, a spokesperson for Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., tweeted…. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-tries-again-rebrand-biden-dark-brandon
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Late equity rally on the usual manipulation
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Tech stocks and Fangs sank on Micron
Gasoline rallied sharply
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How long will the reaction to the July CPI last?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4123.95
Previous session High/Low4137.30; 4112.09
 
Biden’s ‘Read my lips’ problem: Broken tax pledge could prove fatal for coming election
Biden was reiterating a promise he’s made repeatedly… there will be no new taxes on Americans making under $400,000 a year.  According to experts, however, Biden will break his promise if he signs into law the so-called Inflation Reduction Act, which they argue will have the effect of imposing new taxes on the middle class… https://t.co/mI7Cv44Z2Q
 
Nancy Pelosi backtracking on China: “We still support the one-China policy.  We go there to acknowledge the status quo… There’s nothing disruptive about that.  China is one of the freest societies in the world…”   https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1557020583224905730
 
@TrentTelenko: The Great Crimean Russian bug out is underway following Ukraine’s strike on a Russian air base within sight of Russian occupied Crimean beaches. There is more than one way to block travel over the Kerch bridge.  Traffic jams filled with panicked Russians, for instance.
 
@KyivPost: Russians are hastily leaving Crimea via the Crimean bridge. “There’s a huge traffic jam here,” says the author of the video.  https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1557018273643905028
 
Today – The dire Q2 Productivity data diminishes some significance for July CPI.  As noted above, the Fed is more sensitive to ‘sticky wages’ than commodity prices.  However, The Street trades on info and headlines, regardless of their bearing.  Traders and algos react to headlines with little or no cogitation.
 
July CPI will be released at 8:30 ET.  Traders are likely to overreact to CPI, whether better or worse than expected.  Therefore, there should be at least two significant ESU moves before the NYSE open.
 
When the NYSE opens, guppies and other traders will likely overreact to CPI.  So, the 1st Hour Indicator could be useful today.  If the S&P first hour low or high is violated, a significant move could develop. 
 
Expected economic data: July CPI 0.2% m/m, 8.7% y/y, Core 0.5% m/m, 6.1% y/y; June Wholesale Inventories 1/9% m/m, Sales 0.5% m/m; July Budget Statement -$170.0B; Chicago Fed Pres Evans 11:00 ET, Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 14:00 ET; Disney is expected to report .96 after the NYSE close
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3947; 100-day MA: 4114; 150-day MA: 4224; 200-day MA: 4334
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,728; 100-day MA: 32,692; 150-day MA: 33,334; 200-day MA: 33,937
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3735.11 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 4034.42 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4155.46 triggers a buy signal
 
Trump ally Rep. Scott Perry says the FBI seized his cell phone one day after Mar-a-Lago raid
“My phone contains info about my legislative and political activities, and personal/private discussions with my wife, family, constituents, and friends. None of this is the government’s business.”…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-ally-rep-scott-perry-says-fbi-seized-cell-phone-one-day-after-mar-a-lago-raid
 
@kristina_wong: Perry is a retired brigadier general who served the country for nearly 40 years.
 
Trump raid not about classified documents — it’s about Jan. 6 by Ex-fed prosecutor Andy McCarthy
The Justice Department obviously used the potential classified information as a pretext to obtain a warrant so it could search for what it is really looking for: evidence that would tie Trump to a Capitol riot offense… DOJ would need to prove that Trump clearly knew that the 2020 election was not stolen by fraudyet willfully persisted in deceptive schemes to prevent Congress from counting the state-certified votes… This is why, in recent weeks, the Justice Department has aggressively sought evidence from advisers close to Trump
    The Biden Justice Department is under enormous pressure from the Democratic base to indict Trump… it is trying to deliver is a Capitol riot case, not a case of mishandling classified documents.  https://nypost.com/2022/08/09/trump-raid-not-about-classified-documents-its-about-jan-6/
 
@PaulSperry30: Investigators reportedly met back in June w Trump & his lawyers in Mar-a-Lago storage rm to survey docs & things seemed copasetic but then FBI raids weeks later… Biden White House has been consulting with National Archives and Records Administration investigators about Trump docs related to Jan. 6 since May, when Biden appointed a new interim archivist. Biden lawyers have reviewed 1000s Trump WH emails, papers for release to J6C.  (Twitter suspected Sperry’s account after he posted the latter tweet!)
 
@julie_kelly2: Liz Cheney, J6 committee repeatedly float the idea Trump has tampered with evidence.
 
Ex-CIA official downplays classified records at Mar-a-Lago: ‘I had them in my house’
Therefore, the process of obtaining a search warrant for the residence of a former president would require much more than just seeking classified documents, he added…
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/philip-mudd-downplays-classified-records
 
FBI searched Melania’s wardrobe, spent hours in Trump’s private office during Mar-a-Lago raid
A source close to the former president expressed concern that FBI agents or DOJ lawyers conducting the search could have “planted stuff” because they would not allow Trump’s attorneys inside the 128-room building to observe the operation, which lasted more than nine hours…
https://nypost.com/2022/08/09/fbi-even-searched-melanias-wardrobe-in-trump-raid/
 
Judge Behind Mar A Lago Raid Is Epstein-Linked, Obama Donor
Judge Reinhart began representing Epstein’s employees on January 2nd, 2008, just one day after departing the U.S. Attorney’s Office where he served as an assistant U.S. attorney closely involved on the convicted pedophile’s case  https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/08/09/mar-a-lago-warrant-authorized-by-epstein-lawyer/
 
Judge Who Approved FBI Raid Disparaged Trump, Shared ‘Woke’ Content on Facebook
https://www.dailywire.com/news/judge-who-approved-fbi-raid-disparaged-trump-shared-woke-content-on-facebook-report
 
@CryptoLawyerz: DOJ secret. Prosecutors will wait for a favorable judge to come around on the rotation to have him sign a search warrant. Was August 1-7 Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart’s week to be duty judge? The man who worked on Epstein’s plea deal and then went to work for him.
 
@TedKempCNBC: Trump’s attorney told @NBCNews that a copy of the search warrant that FBI agents left at Mar-a-Lago indicates agents are investigating possible violations of the Presidential Records Act and the handling of classified material
 
Reportedly, the pre-dawn raid at Mar-a-Lago featured FBI agents from the DC office.  Erik Trump on Monday night said the raid was supposedly about national archive documents that were returned many months ago. The FBI brought a safecracker and cracked a “relatively new” safe.  The safe was empty. 
 
Daily Mail: Trump took 15 boxes of material with him in January 2021 after he left Washington D.C. The boxes were returned to the National Archives a year later in January 2022 but agents on Monday were looking to see if Trump had additional presidential records or any classified documents…
    Maggie Haberman, a New York Times White House correspondent, claims in her upcoming book on the Trump presidency that Trump would give records the royal flush.  On Monday she claimed to have obtained pictures of presidential notes stuffed into the residence toilets from a former White House official who worked under the previous administration…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11093449/FBI-agents-raid-Mar-Lago-Trump-says-home-siege-agents.html
 
@WeAre_TheElite: Proof Maggie Haberman/Axios used doctored photos to push story of Trump flushing handwritten notes down the toilet. Thread will explain exactly how anyone can verify the photos were poorly doctored. (1)… This pic from Habermans twitter post has been dragged into photoshop & zoomed in 500%. Take note of the obvious pixelation around the names & how it doesn’t match the area surrounding it. This is an obvious sign the photo was doctored…  Here again on the left is Habermans pic and Axios updated pic on the right. You can tell the updated pic has less of the pixelation around the names. It’s clear they attempted to doctor the photo once more to not appear so obviously faked. (7)… If Haberman’s story was true, why go & photoshop the photos multiple times? With the timing of this story about Trump flushing documents & then his home being raided as a result of handling of documents, it’s likely this was a fabricated story to begin painting a narrative. (9)… https://twitter.com/WeAre_TheElite/status/1556952269127655426
 
@spweber54: Why isn’t anyone asking, ‘Who takes a picture of notes before being flushed?’ ‘Who DOESN’T flush the toilet and just leave them sitting in the water?
 
Trump under intense legal scrutiny after FBI searches Mar-a-Lago – BBG
Trump kept various papers… Some of those papers were among items boxed up and taken to Mar-a-Lago when he left office.  Trump wasn’t given a briefing on what to take and what not to, according to two people familiar with the matter. He likely didn’t see everything that was taken — the valets and residence staff did most of the packing… Barbara McQuade, a former federal prosecutor who teaches law at the University of Michigan said she was not aware of any prior case where a warrant was executed at the home of a former president… https://www.hastingstribune.com/ap/national/trump-under-intense-legal-scrutiny-after-fbi-searches-mar-a-lago/article_a0bea09d-a641-57eb-bfdb-f70cebd49e94.html
 
Trump Search Was Unprecedented, But Records Case Will Be Tough – BBG
While the search is “uncharted territory” for the US, it isn’t a foregone conclusion that Trump is in serious legal jeopardy, said former federal prosecutor Jennifer Rodgers.  “The bar for charging classified information cases is very high, and a Presidential Records Act criminal violation is unlikely for a variety of reasons having to do with the statutory language of the relevant crimes and the potential penalties,” she said… https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/trump-search-unprecedented-records-case-104500845.html
 
@PaulSperry30: Uh, does DOJ understand that NARA is only temporary custodian of a president’s old White House archives until all those records are transferred back to president once his presidential library is built? That’s right, all the classified papers are returned to the former president.
 
Gregg Jarrett on raid of Mar-a-Lago: This is an ‘abuse of power by FBI’ and Merrick Garland
“The Presidential Records Act of 1968, ’78, which is far from a model of clarity, and in fact it’s one of the more opaque laws you will ever read. One of the problems with it is that it gives discretion and authority to the incumbent president to decide what constitutes presidential papers. He may identify, exclude, and dispose of presidential papers, and you point out the classified nature, allegedly, of some of the documents. Identified by the national archives.  They are not a competent agency to recognize classified documents because a president is the ultimate authority in declassifying documents…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/gregg-jarrett-raid-mar-a-lago-abuse-of-power-by-fbi-and-merrick-garland
 
Documents at Mar-a-Lago Marked ‘Classified’ Were Already Declassified, Kash Patel Says
“Trump declassified whole sets of materials in anticipation of leaving government that he thought the American public should have the right to read themselves… The White House counsel failed to generate the paperwork to change the classification markingsbut that doesn’t mean the information wasn’t declassified… I was there with President Trump when he said ‘We are declassifying this information.’”
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/05/05/documents-mar-a-lago-marked-classified-were-already-declassified-kash-patel-says/
 
WaPo: The inventory of unclassified items in the boxes that were already recovered from Mar-a-Lago is roughly 100 pages long, according to a person familiar with the unclassified inventoryDescriptions of items that were improperly taken to Mar-a-Lago include a cocktail napkin, a phone list, charts, slide decks, letters, memos, maps, talking points, a birthday dinner menu, schedules and more, according to this person.  There is a separate inventory for just the classified materials that were taken… https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2022/aug/08/trump-says-his-home-at-mar-a-lago-raided-and-occup/
 
@JonathanTurley: PRA violations are rarely subject to prosecution.  Even with intentional and egregious acts like Sandy Bergersthere was no jail time and a misdemeanor plea. Much will demand on the scope of the violation and the intent behind any retention or concealment…
 
@bennyjohnson: Never forget that Hillary Clinton destroyed devices with hammers and absolutely nothing was done to hold her accountable.
 
@mikepompeo: Executing a warrant against ex-POTUS is dangerous. The… political weaponization of DOJ/FBI is shameful. AG must explain why 250 yrs of practice was upended w/ this raid. I served on Benghazi Com where we proved Hillary possessed classified info. We didn’t raid her home
 
@AriFleischer: 5) FBI didn’t raid Hillary’s home 2search for her server. They didn’t raid the DNC to get the server the Russians hacked. They didn’t raid Clinton NSC Advisor Sandy Berger’s home to see if he had additional smuggled classified material. Why is Trump held to a different standard?…
    7) A precedent has been set. Former Presidents, while not above the law, can now have their homes raided by successor administrations. There’s no telling where that will lead
https://twitter.com/AriFleischer/status/1557005777189339136
 
@TomFitton: Fun story: @JudicialWatch sued over Bill Clinton’s hiding records in his sock drawerCourt told us to pound sand because presidents essentially can do whatever they want with their records. Remember this when you hear anti-Trump media caterwauling about his tearing up documents.
 
@johncardillo: Christopher Wray has ironclad video evidence PC that Hunter Biden broke multiple federal gun laws, multiple federal narcotics laws, and multiple federal sex trafficking laws, and still hasn’t served a search warrant on any of his homes or offices.
 
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: The raid by Joe Biden’s FBI on the home of a former president who is also Biden’s chief political opponent is an unprecedented assault on democratic norms and the rule of law. Biden has taken our republic into dangerous waters… Garland must resign or be impeached. The search warrant must be published. Christopher Wray must be removed. And the FBI reformed top to bottom.
 
Kevin McCarthy @GOPLeader: I’ve seen enough.  The Department of Justice has reached an intolerable state of weaponized politicization.  When the Republicans take back the House, we will conduct immediate oversight of this department, follow the facts, and leave no stone unturned.  Attorney General Garland: preserve your documents and clear your calendar. (Full statement at link) https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1556807790433271809
 
@RonDeSantisFL: The raid of MAL is another escalation in the weaponization of federal agencies against the Regime’s political opponents, while people like Hunter Biden get treated with kid gloves. Now the Regime is getting another 87k IRS agents to wield against its adversaries? Banana Republic.
 
@CBSNews: “I share the feeling of being absolutely stunned,” security and law enforcement analyst James Gagliano says on the search warrant executed on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home, calling it “beyond special circumstances.”  “For a former president, this is just earth-shattering news.”
 
@julie_kelly2: Btw this is no defense of Trump. For 18 months, his team ignored the plight of J6 defendants who had their homes raided by dozens of armed FBI agents and some sent to prison denied bail by DOJ prosecutors and DC judges he appointed. No one spoke or helped them including GOP.
    I’ve listened to grown men cry in front of twisted DC judges begging for mercy on petty offenses before they were sentenced to jail. Wives, kids subjected to cruel FBI raids. People broken over nothing even close to what happened during 2020 riots. And GOP leadership? Silent.
 
Many Dems, notably Andrew Cuomo, Andrew Yang, and CNN experts, criticized the Mar-a-Lago raid.
 
@KyleKashuv: The raid on Mar-A-Lago is the natural result of a decades long power asymmetry between Democrats and Republicans. Democrats wield power to make their political adversaries lives worse (Obama IRS targeting conservative orgs) with full knowledge Republicans will not do the same.
 
@JesseKellyDC: Bill Barr went on TV and bragged that he wasn’t gonna go after Hillary and the corrupt Democrats because he didn’t wanna get into a “tit for tat”? How’d that work out?
 
@KariLake: “I suppose this sets a precedent and I wonder if people like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton should be nervous if President Trump ever makes it back into the White House.”
https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1557042713681399808
 
@RyanGirdusky: New Monmouth poll finds the January 6th hearing has had almost no effect on public opinion   https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1557052757726617601
 
@JackPosobiec: Biden Admin scrambling to tell BlueAnon members of Congress to not spike the football over the Trump raid and make moderates turn even further, per WH staffer. Schiff, Lieu, Swalwell, The Squad, Hirono, Murphy, etc.
 
@AP: For much of the year, cracks in Donald Trump’s political support have been growing. But the FBI’s search of the former president’s Florida estate has unified Republicans behind Trump as almost never before.
 
Ex-intel chief urged Trump to fire FBI Director Wray in 2020 – Ric Grenell recounts when FBI agents admitted their bosses ordered political redactions to documents…
    Several former Trump officials, including former Attorney General Bill Barr, reportedly learned the 45th president was contemplating firing Wray in 2020 and advised against it…
https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/ex-intel-chief-urged-trump-fire-fbi-director-wray-2020
 
FBI Raided Mar-A-Lago After Tip That Parents Were Protesting a School Board Meeting There https://babylonbee.com/news/report-fbi-raided-mar-a-lago-on-false-tip-that-parents-were-protesting-a-school-board-meeting-there



end

Greg Hunter interviewing Martin Armstrong

Trump Raid Deathblow to Democracy – Martin Armstrong

By Greg Hunter On August 9, 2022 In Political Analysis1 Comment

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Last month, legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong said the time to prepare is now for the chaos that is coming in 2023.  The destabilization of America has been kicked into high gear early with the FBI raid on President Trump’s Florida home this week.  Armstrong explains, “This really is unprecedented . . . . In the United States, we are supposed to have civilized transfer of power.  That’s all coming to an end.  I am not being dramatic here.  From a legal perspective, this is completely unprecedented.  The danger of this is once they have done this, if the Republicans are ever allowed to get back into power, they would only end up doing the same thing to the Democrats. . . . It’s striking a real deathblow to the very idea of a democracy.  We are not, at least we were not until today, someplace like Guatemala where you throw the opposition in jail, kill them or whatever you do.  This is what’s going on.  They are so afraid of Trump running in 2024 that this is just over the top.  Once they did this, there is no end.”

Armstrong says the Democrats are in “dire straits” at the polls–and they know it.  Armstrong thinks the Trump raid by the FBI is an act of desperation, and it will “backfire,” but that’s not the only play in the Democrat playbook for the midterms in November.  Armstrong says, “I have been warned that the Democrats have been maneuvering, and the reason they are allowing all the illegal aliens to come in is they intend to allow them to vote.  You already had the Justice Department go after one state that said you had to prove you are an American to vote, and they filed a suit against them saying that they violated their civil rights.  At that stage of the game, hey, all of Europe, Australia, everybody should just send in a vote.”

Armstrong’s says forget what the mainstream polls are saying about voter support for Democrats and Joe Biden because the real numbers are much lower than the public is told.  Armstrong’s “Socrates” computer program shows Joe Biden has just 12% of support in America.  Maybe this is why Democrats are desperate and realize they have to cheat and break the law to stay in power.  It’s not going to get any better, and the entire world is in the same sinking boat.  Armstrong says, “We basically are sitting here in the middle of the collapse of Western civilization.  It’s socialism that is collapsing because these people have done nothing but borrow money to bribe them to vote for them . . . There is no way to pay it back, and they had no intention of paying it back. . . . Europe is, just forget it.  You have emerging markets collapsing around the world because to sell their debt, they had to put it into dollars.  Sri Lanka, Lebanon, Pakistan, Argentina are falling apart on a global scale.”

Armstrong thinks the dollar will be strong for now and not to expect a collapse in the USA anytime soon because America will be the last man standing.  That said, Armstrong does see the possibility of a “stock market collapse in September.”  Armstrong is also “worried about civil war or extreme civil unrest in 2023 in America.”  Armstrong is seeing a “world war coming in 2024 or after.”

Armstrong also said, “My computer warns that there may not even be an election in America in 2024.  It’s reaching that critical period.  So, this raid on Trump is like throwing down the gauntlet.  Everything is gone.”

There is much more in the nearly 53-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, cycle expert and author of the upcoming new book “The Plot to Seize Russia, Manufacturing World War III” for 8.9.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/trump-raid-deathblow-to-democracy-martin-armstrong/)

END

SEE YOU TOMORROW

H

Advertisement

One comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: