AUGUST 18/GOLD CLOSED DOWN 45.25 TO $1757.25//SILVER WAS DOWN ANOTHER 27 CENTS TO $19.54//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $9.25 TO $917.35//PALLADIUM WAS UP $19.00 TO $2157.65//CHINA: EXPECT A CURRENCY DEVALUATION//POWER CRISIS CONTINUES FOR CHINA//EUROPE: ENERGY CRISIS CONTINUES/EUROPE CONTINUES WITH A SCARCITY OF GAS//RUSSIA VS WEST: TENSIONS ESCALATE AS RUSSIA SENDS MIG FIGHTERS TO ENCLAVE KALININGRAD/TURKISH LIRA PLUMMETS//TURKEY AND ISRAEL SURPRISINGLY UNDERGOES DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS AFTER A 12 YR HIATUS//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT// USA INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN BUT CONTINUING CLAIMS UP//HOUSING: EXISTING HOME SALES DOWN AS USA ECONOMY SPUTTERING// USA COMMIDITY REPORT: TOMATOES NOW IN SHORT SUPPLY/FEDS LIMIT WATER SUPPLY TO ARIZONA AND NEVADA//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

 Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1757.75 DOWN $5.75

SILVER: $19.54 DOWN 27 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1758.85

SILVER: $19.54

Bitcoin morning price:  $23,494 UP 203

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $23,404. UP 113

Platinum price closing DOWN $9.25 AT$917.35 

Palladium price; closing up $19.00  at $2157.65

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,760.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/17/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/19/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 3
072 H GOLDMAN 5
104 C MIZUHO 2
132 C SG AMERICAS 64
167 C MAREX 2
190 H BMO CAPITAL 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 38
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 29
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 1 4
880 C CITIGROUP 149
880 H CITIGROUP 5


TOTAL: 154 154
MONTH TO DATE: 32,673

JPMorgan stopped:   29,154

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:  

154 NOTICES FOR 15400 OZ //0.4790 TONNES

total notices so far: 32,673 contracts for 3,267,300 oz (101.626 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  13 NOTICES FILED FOR 65,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  936 :  for 4,680,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.718 TONNES FROM THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.32 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 485.482 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A STRONG SIZED 945  CONTRACTS TO 143,369.   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  $0.32 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.32) AND WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 835 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. HOWEVER WE HAD A SOME LIQUIDATION OF SPECULATOR SHORTS.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A ZERO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A FAIR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 55,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//SOME SPEC LIQUIDATION)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -10

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 14 days, total 6650  contracts:  33.250 million oz  OR 2.375 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (475 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 33.250 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 33.25 MILLION OZ (A LOT LESS THAN NORMAL//THE CROOKS ARE SCARED TO ISSUE MORE EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 945 WITH OUR  $0.32 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 100 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS AND SOME SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 55,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 845 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 4.225 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 13  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  65,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 2379 CONTRACTS  TO 456,339 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:–85   CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED  INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $12.00//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 98.367 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 300 OZ//NEW STANDING 104.027 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF   $12.00 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4776  OI CONTRACTS 14,855 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2397  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 456,339

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4776 CONTRACTS  WITH 2379 CONTRACTS  INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2397 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4776 CONTRACTS OR 14.885 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2397) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (2379): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 4776 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP OF 300 oz.    3) ZERO/ LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

33,357 CONTRACTS OR 3,335,700 OZ OR 103.97  TONNES 14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2382 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 103.97 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  103.97/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.92% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 103.97 TONNES (DRAMATICALLY FALLING AGAIN)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 945 CONTRACT OI TO 143,369 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 100 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 100  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 100 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 945  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 100 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 845   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.225 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.32

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.94 PTS OR 0.46%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 158.54 OR 0.80%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 280.63 OR % 0.96.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.32%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7882//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.7946//    /Oil UP TO 89.02  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 95.04//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 2379 CONTRACTS TO 456,339 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL OF $12.00  IN GOLD PRICING  WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2397 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2397 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :2397 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2397 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 4776  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2397 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 2379  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR STRONG FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 12.00.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST   (104.027),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.027 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $12.00) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 5.112 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (104.027 TONNES)

WE HAD –85  CONTRACTS ADDED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4776 CONTRACTS OR 477,600  OZ OR 14.885 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 118,234///  extremely poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  144,897/extremely poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 18

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz55,085.995  oz

Brinks
Manfra
Malca
JPMorgan




Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz0 oz
No of oz served (contracts) today154   notice(s)
15,400 OZ
0.4790 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)772 contracts 
77,200 oz
2.401 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month32,673 notices
3,267,300 OZ
101.626 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits niL oz

2 customer withdrawals:

4) Out of Manfra  32.151 oz (one kilobar)

ii) Out of Brinks 22,673,738 oz

iii) out of JPMorgan:  21,673.823 oz

iv)Out of Malca: 10,706.283 oz

total:  55,085.945 oz

total in tonnes: 1.71 tonnes

Adjustments: dealer to customer //1

Brinks:  96,453.000oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an  oi of 926 contracts having LOST  34 contracts .

We had 31 notices served upon yesterday so we gained a TINY 3 contracts or an additional 300 oz will stand for delivery in this very active month of August. 

Sept. LOST 24 contracts to 3604 contracts.

October GAINED 517 contracts UP to 39,832 

We had 154 notice(s) filed today for 15,400 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 154 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  29 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (32,673) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (AUGUST x926 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 154 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,344,800 OZ  OR 104.027 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of AUGUST. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (32,673) x 100 oz+   (926)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (154} x 100 oz} which equals 3,344,800 oz standing OR 104.027 TONNES in this active delivery month of August.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  104.027 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (   ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,320,942.458 oz   72.19 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  28,647,719.934 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 14,408,882.049  OZ (448,76 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,238,897.885 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 12,087,940.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 375.98 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 18

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory632,919.520 oz
Delaware

JPMorgan
 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory732,390.646 oz
Loomis
Delaware
 
No of oz served today (contracts)13 CONTRACT(S)
65,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)50 contracts 
(250,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)936 contracts
 4,680,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  2  deposits into the customer account

i) Into Loomis:  578,912.910 0z

ii)Into Delaware: 153,417.736 oz

total deposit:  159,475.740   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 172.782 million oz/332.705 million =51.90% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 2

i) Out of Brinks 974.05 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 580,932.700  oz

iii) out of JPMorgan: 626,039.370 oz

total: 632,919.570   oz

 adjustments:  0  

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 55.478 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 332.705 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 63 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 85 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 96 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY

SO WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 55,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.  THE AMOUNT STANDING

WILL NOW INCREASE//(OR REMAIN CONSTANT) ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 3051 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 55,177

OCTOBER LOST 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 112

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 13 for  65,000 oz

Comex volumes:50,546// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 59,160 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  936 x 5,000 oz = 4,680,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(63) and the number of notices served upon today 13  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 936 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (63)  – number of notices served upon today (13) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 4,930,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 985.83 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTOT HE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4  WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 485.482 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

How commodity fraud works in China

(zerohedge)

Bloomberg details how commodity fraud works but of course omits gold

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-08-17 11:43Section: Daily Dispatches

“Overpledging” goes far beyond copper trading.

* * *

Why Metals Keep Going Missing in Commodity Trading

From Bloomberg News
Tuesday, August 16, 2022

A group of Chinese traders discovered in August that a copper merchant in northern China wasn’t holding the half a billion dollars’ worth of ore that was meant to be their collateral. This followed an episode in June involving missing aluminum. 

The incidents highlight rising risks in commodity financing as China’s growth model is tested. And they carry disturbing echoes of a much bigger scandal eight years ago — the Qingdao fraud — that triggered a sweeping overhaul of the commodities business at international banks and trading houses.

How could a stockpile go missing?

There are several ways things can go awry. 

Commodities trading, whether that’s wheat, copper, or oil, is typically a high-volume, low-margin business. To fund purchases and optimize cash flow, traders take out loans backed by the commodity they’re trading. 

In the metals business, that collateral is often in the form of so-called warehouse warrants or receipts, which record details like the quantity, quality, ownership, and location of the goods.

The dependence on paper makes an easy target for fraud. 

Warrants can be faked, using fictitious material. A single pile of metal can be collateralized for multiple loans — often known as over-pledging. 

Or a stretched trader might simply sell on the goods to which the lenders have a claim, without paying back the loan. 

There’s a rich record of risk and fraud stretching back through the history of global commodities trading. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-16/why-metals-keep-going-missing-in-commodity-trading-quicktake

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

(courtesy Market Watch)

China is importing a huge 80 tonnes of gold last month from Switzerland (refined gold)

Swiss gold exports to China surge to 5-1/2-year high

LONDON, Aug 18 (Reuters) – Swiss exports of gold to China in July rose to their highest since December 2016, Swiss customs data showed on Thursday, as demand in the world’s largest bullion market improved.

Switzerland shipped 80.1 tonnes of gold worth 4.4 billion Swiss francs ($4.6 billion) to mainland China, up from 32.5 tonnes in June and the second-highest monthly total in figures that stretch back to 2012.

Gold prices slipped below $1,700 an ounce in July from more than $2,000 earlier in the year as rising interest rates triggered selling by Western investors.

Retail consumers in markets like China often buy less when prices rise and more when they fall. China had also in July emerged from COVID-19 lockdowns earlier in the year.

The surge in shipments to China lifted Switzerland’s total gold exports to 186.2 tonnes in July, again the most since 2016.

Switzerland is the biggest refining and transit hub for gold and its data offer insight into global market trends.

It shipped 15.8 tonnes of gold in July to India, another top bullion consumer, up from 7.7 tonnes in June but only around half the monthly average over the last year.

The customs data also showed that Switzerland imported 261 kg of gold from Russia, taking the total imported during May, June and July to 3.6 tonnes worth 225 million Swiss francs ($235 million).

Customs authorities have said the imports in May and June were of Russian gold but that the metal came from Britain, a major gold storage centre. They said they had no evidence that the gold was produced after Russia invaded Ukraine.

-END-

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: USA/COTTON

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

end

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7802

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7946

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 158.54 PTS OR  0.80%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 158.54 OR 0.96%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  106.41/Euro FALLS TO 1.0187

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.197/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 134.95/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.092%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.32% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.24%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.53//

3j Gold at $1770.50 silver at: 19.90  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1  AND 34/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 59.41//RUSSIAN GOLD IN USA $2617.00

3m oil into the 89 dollar handle for WTI and  95 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 134.95DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9517– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9698well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8693  DOWN 3  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.132 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,09

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Levitate Higher After China Vows To Accelerate Reopening

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 08:18 AM

US futures were flat as the Fed minutes did not help resolve the uncertainty about the path of Federal Reserve monetary tightening, while fresh prospects about China’s economic reopening sent oil higher. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% at 745am ET having recovered from an earlier loss, as traders assessed minutes from the Fed’s last meeting which noted that officials saw risks from tightening more than necessary even as they planned on hiking until inflation was on a steady downward slope, while President Xi Jinping’s comments that China will persist with opening up its economy were also in focus and boosted commodities. The dollar gave up gains, and Treasury yields dipped, reversing some of this week’s sharp gains. Bitcoin traded in a tight range around $23,500.

In US premarket trading, Cisco Systems advanced after issuing an upbeat forecast for quarterly sales as chip-supply shortages ease and the company is able to fill more orders. Keep an eye on US building products stocks as Deutsche Bank initiates coverage on 22 names, saying the US housing market is in the midst of a “mid-cycle crisis,” but that this is likely to be different from the downturn seen in the mid-2000s. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Bluebird Bio’s (BLUE) shares rise as much as 10% as analysts digest yesterday’s FDA clearance of its Zynteglo therapy, ahead of its launch call due later today.
  • BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) shares gain 6% after the warehouse club operator reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) rose 6% after issuing an upbeat forecast for quarterly sales as chip-supply shortages ease and the company is able to fill more orders.
  • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) cut to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley as visibility on the firm’s outlook remains weak. Elanco shares fall 1.7% in US premarket trading.
  • Estee Lauder (EL) falls 1.3% after the beauty company’s forecasts for first quarter and the full year trailed consensus estimates. In Europe, shares of L’Oreal declined after EL’s release.
  • Five months after disclosing a stake in Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., (BBBY) activist shareholder Ryan Cohen wants out, sparking a selloff in the shares of the home goods retailer. Shares fall 13%.
  • Kohl’s (KSS) drops 7% after slashing its guidance for the year, including adjusted earnings per share, operating margin and net sales growth. Peer Macy’s (M), which reports Aug. 23, falls 3%.
  • Mattel (MAT) rises 0.8% after it was initiated with a buy rating at BofA, which said that the company has “successfully” completed its turnaround and is now in growth mode.
  • MoffettNathanson cut the recommendation on Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) to underperform from market perform, as T-Mobile widens its competitive advantage in 5G and AT&T undercuts it with aggressive promotions. Verizon shares fall 0.8%.
  • NetEase (NTES) shares rise as much as 3% after the Chinese video-game giant’s 2Q revenue came in slightly above the consensus analyst estimate.
  • NuScale Power (SMR) was initiated with a recommendation of buy at Guggenheim Securities, as analyst Shahriar Pourreza says its “shares represent one of the only opportunities for public exposure to the next generation of nuclear.” Shares gain 4%.

While policy makers warned against over-tightening and signaled the potential for slower rate increases at some point, they also flagged the risk of inflation pressures becoming entrenched. The nuanced messaging wasn’t dovish enough for markets to sustain a risk-on stance into Thursday. Caution was the byword of the moment with further clues awaited at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming next week.

“People are a little overly optimistic about how likely it is that we can solve the inflation problem quickly and in a way where we don’t have to include more policy and more rising rates,” Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Group chief research strategist and portfolio manager, said on Bloomberg Television.

While most saw the FOMC minutes as dovish, others disagreed. According to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, the Fed meeting minutes were more hawkish than what was needed to give another boost to US equities. “Investors quickly realized that there was no mention of cutting the rates in the foreseeable future. If anything, the Fed would continue lifting the rates, and keep them steady for a while.”

Equities had rallied in recent weeks as investors bet July’s softer inflation print would allow the Fed to rethink its aggressive pace of hiking rates. The Nasdaq 100 had led the advance amid relief at the prospect of easier policy, boosted by raging CTA buying, stock buybacks, a return of retail investors and hedge funds forced to FOMO-chase higher.

“This rally is over-extended in the technology sector,” said Freddie Lait, chief investment officer at Latitude Investment Management. “The relative valuation of most of those Nasdaq stocks compared to other stocks around the world has become extreme again, and positioning has become quite extreme again, and so I wouldn’t be surprised to see that rolling over into the end of the summer.” The Nasdaq 100 is now trading at 23.2 times forward earnings, above the average level of 20.2 times over the past decade.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index was 0.2% higher as the latest report of euro-area inflation met expectations, sparing traders of any ugly surprise. FTSE MIB outperforms, adding 0.4%, IBEX lags, dropping 0.2%. Autos, energy and chemicals are the strongest-performing sectors. Concerns of tightening monetary conditions increased after the European Central Bank’s Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said rate hikes will continue in the region. Thin trading exaggerated moves across markets. The Stoxx 600 witnessed a 33% drop in volumes relative to the 30-day average. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Siegfried shares jump as much as 13%, the most since October 1998, after 1H results analysts say were a significant beat, also noting effective management of macro risks.
  • GN Store Nord shares rise as much as 10% after the Danish audio firm presented its latest earnings, which included a guidance cut that was less pessimistic than analysts expected.
  • Zur Rose shares rise as much as 14%, the most since May, after its latest earnings report, which includes a goal to be profitable in 2023, a plan Jefferies call “very positive.”
  • Nibe rise as much as 8.6% after the Swedish heat pump manufacturer published earnings. Analysts note solid results, which beat expectations, as well as a positive outlook.
  • Global Fashion Group shares rise as much as 31%, the most intraday on record, after reporting better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, also offering some FY clarity.
  • Balfour Beatty shares rise as much as 3.8% after Peel Hunt further raised FY22 profit forecasts for the UK construction and engineering firm and saw scope for material share price upside.
  • Adyen shares tumble the most since 2018 as 1H Ebitda and net revenue missed consensus analyst forecasts. Analysts point out that accelerated hiring is also a cause of Ebitda miss.
  • AutoStore shares wipe out an earlier jump of 13% to fall as much as 6.8%. Analysts say results look strong, albeit they note a small miss on orders and guidance for more margin pressure in 2H.
  • Made.com shares drop as much as 12%, biggest decliner in the FTSE All-Share Index, after the online furniture seller said it’s considering “all options” to strengthen its balance sheet.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as disappointing results from some key Chinese firms and worries about the outlook for the region’s biggest economy weighed on investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 0.7%, with benchmarks in the biggest markets of Japan and China down close to 1%. Risk appetite improved a smidge after President Xi Jinping said China will persist with opening up its economy, the comments coming in after the nation’s markets closed. China’s largest developer Country Garden Holdings, saw its stock slump after it warned that first-half earnings probably tumbled by as much as 70% amid an escalating property crisis. Tencent, the nation’s most-valuable company, logged its first-ever revenue drop though its shares — which have fallen for three straight months — advanced.

Thursday’s losses in Asia tracked declines in US shares overnight. Minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting showed that officials agreed on the need to eventually dial back the pace of interest-rate hikes but also wanted to gauge how their monetary tightening was working toward curbing US inflation.  The minutes “lacked fresh impetus needed to bring up the pricing of Fed’s rate hikes,” Saxo Capital Markets’ Asia-Pacific strategy team wrote in a note. “Chairman Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium next week will be keenly watched for further inputs.” Meanwhile, consumer discretionary and technology were among the worst-performing sectors on the Asian benchmark. Goldman Sachs and Nomura further cut their forecasts for China’s economic growth, with a power supply crunch adding more uncertainty to the outlook.

Japanese stocks fell, following US peers lower after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed officials see risks from tightening more than necessary. The Topix fell 0.8% to close at 1,990.50, while the Nikkei declined 1% to 28,942.14. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix decline, decreasing 1.8%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 565 rose and 1,503 fell, while 102 were unchanged.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to close at 7,112.80 as investors assessed a slew of corporate results and jobs data. Australian employment unexpectedly dropped in July, giving the Reserve Bank scope for more flexibility in its tightening cycle. Telix Pharma slumped after reporting a net loss for the first half. IPH was the top performer after saying it’s buying Canadian firm Smart & Biggar. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.3% to 11,814.34.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced a second day and the greenback rose versus most of its Group-of-10 peers, with Norway’s krone as the best performer. The euro traded in a narrow range against the dollar for a third consecutive day. Norway’s krone extended an advance versus the euro after Norges Bank raised the key interest rate to 1.75% from 1.25%, in line with what most economists in a Bloomberg survey had expected. The central bank also said the policy rate “will most likely be raised further in September.” The pound extended losses against the dollar, hitting the lowest since July 26, amid broad-based greenback strength.
The yen fell in a volatile session as traders mulled rising US yields and their negative impact on stocks. Japan’s government bond yields rose

In rates, Treasuries were slightly richer across the curve with gains led by long-end, having outperformed bunds and gilts during European morning. US yields richer by ~2bp across long-end of the curve with 5s30s spread flatter by ~1bp on the day; 10-year yields around 2.87% within narrow overnight range, outperforming bunds by 4bp in the sector. Front-end German yields lag after ECB’s Isabel Schnabel says the euro area’s inflation outlook has not changed fundamentally.  Bunds bear-flattened out to the 10-year sector as money markets added to ECB tightening bets after the ECB’s Schnabel said the euro area’s inflation outlook has not changed fundamentally, in an interview cited by Reuters, suggesting that another hike of similar magnitude may be coming next month.  Australia’s bond yields trimmed opening gains and the nation’s currency eased after employment contracted for the first time since October 2021.

In commodities, oil jumps to session high after Xi says China will persist with opening up its economy. WTI rises 1.5% to trade around $89. Spot gold rises roughly $4 to trade near $1,766/oz. Most base metals trade in the red; LME nickel falls 0.5%, underperforming peers. LME copper outperforms, adding 1%, after Xi’s comments

Looking at the day ahead, the FOMC minutes from July will be the main highlight, and the other central bank speaker will be Fed Governor Bowman. Otherwise, earnings releases include Target, Lowe’s and Cisco Systems, and data releases include US retail sales and UK CPI for July.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,265.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 438.54
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 161.98
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 526.40
  • Nikkei down 1.0% to 28,942.14
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,990.50
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 19,763.91
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,277.54
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 60,079.59
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,112.78
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,508.05
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.11%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.0165
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,763.18
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.20% to 106.79

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Biden Freeze on Oil and Gas Leasing Is Reinstated for Now
  • China Plans More Fiscal Stimulus as Economy Outlook Darkens
    • China Attacks US Chip Handouts While Warning of Market Slowdown
    • China’s Covid Cases Surge to Three-Month High on Hainan Outbreak
  • PetroChina Said to Consider Spinoff of Energy Marketing Business
  • Russia’s Sakhalin-2 LNG Plant Asks Buyers to Pay Gazprombank
  • Rhine Reopens gin Germany for Vessels Moving Goods Upstream
  • Adyen Shares Slump as Travel Costs Hits First-Half Results
  • NetEase Shares Rise After 2Q Revenue Meets Estimates
  • Swiss Watch Exports at Near-Record Levels as Industry Booms
  • Abu Dhabi AI Firm Sets Up $10 Billion Fund for Tech Deals
  • Singapore to Be Asia’s Millionaire Capital by 2030, HSBC Says
  • Peter Thiel’s Planned Luxury Tourist Lodge in NZ Thwarted
  • Investment Bank Behind 32,000% IPO Probed by Hong Kong Regulator
  • Trump Warrant Judge Urged to Release Most of FBI Affidavit
  • Covid’s Harmful Effects on the Brain Reverberate Years Later
  • After 2,240% Run, Tesla Visionary Leaves UK Fund Bleeding Money

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly declined following the weak handover from global counterparts which were pressured as yields climbed on the back of the red-hot UK inflation data and with only a brief reprieve seen after the FOMC Minutes noted many officials saw a risk the Fed could tighten more than necessary. ASX 200 was subdued as participants digested the latest influx of earnings releases and disappointing jobs data which showed a surprise contraction in headline Employment Change. Nikkei 225 slipped back beneath the 29,000 level in tandem with the overall downbeat sentiment. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the glum mood after both Goldman Sachs and Nomura cut their China GDP growth forecasts and with focus also on earnings releases including Tencent after it posted its first-ever decline in quarterly revenue although its shares were lifted and it had vowed a return to growth, while Country Garden led the declines after the developer issued a profit warning of as much as an 87% drop in H1 net.

Top Asian News

  • China may issue CNY 1.5tln in additional debt as part of an investment push, according to China Securities News.
  • China’s COVID-19 cases rose to a 3-month high of 3,424 on Wednesday from 2,888 the day before.
  • Nomura cut its China 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.3%.
  • China’s MOFCOM says, re. US CHIPS act, some provisions restrict normal economic, trade and investment activities of relevant enterprises in China. Will, when necessary, take forceful measures to safeguard interests.
  • China’s President Xi says they will persist with opening up the economy, via CCTV.
  • China’s banking regulator is reportedly looking into the property sector loan portfolios of some local/foreign lenders to assess systemic risk, via Reuters citing sources.

European bourses began the session mixed/flat and are yet to gain any real traction in relatively limited newsflow, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%.  Though, it is worth pointing out DAX 40 +1.0% outperformance, after lagging on Wednesday, amid strength in their heavyweight industry names. Stateside, performance is similar ahead of a few corporate updates, data and Fed speak, ES +0.1%

Top European News

  • The FTSE 100’s Weirdly Good Run of Form Hits a Wall of Problems
  • Norway Raises Rates to Highest in Decade to Stem Inflation
  • Embracer CEO Eyes IP Windfall After Buying ‘Lord of the Rings’
  • PwC Raises UK Partner Pay to £1 Million for First Time
  • ‘Enough Is Enough’ Rally Pulls UK Crowds as Rail Strike Begins
  • Truss Planning Review of Regulators in City of London Shakeup

FX

  • Buck bounces after brief post-FOMC minutes dip on dovish elements, DXY touches Fib at 106.960 from 106.500 low.
  • Euro derives more support from rising EGB yields amidst hawkish ECB commentary, EUR/USD holds around 1.0150 amidst raft of option expiries extending beyond 1.0200.
  • Norwegian Krona underpinned by another half point hike from Norges Bank and signal for further tightening in September, EUR/NOK towards base of 9.8550-9.9150 range.
  • Aussie finds support at psychological level against Greenback after mixed jobs data, but Kiwi cautious ahead of NZ trade, AUD/USD nearer 0.6950 than 0.6900, NZD/USD closer to 0.6250 than 0.6300.
  • Sterling still stunned by double digit UK CPI and economic ramifications, Cable ducks under 1.2000, albeit fractionally and briefly.
  • Loonie gleans some traction from firmer oil prices pre-Canadian PPI, USD/CAD closer to 1.2900 than 1.2950.
  • Yuan retreats amidst reports of property loan portfolio probes and PBoC LPR cuts, USD/CNY 6.7900+ and USD/CNH 6.8000+.

Fixed Income

  • EGBs and Gilts regain some poise after extended and heavy declines on hawkish ECB rhetoric.
  • Bunds back up near 154.00 within 154.47-153.24 range, UK benchmark 114.00+ between 114.41-113.63 parameters.
  • US Treasuries idling post-FOMC minutes and pre-busy agenda – 10 year T-note flat at 118.24+ vs 119-01+ high and 118-18 low.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent were bolstered by rhetoric from the Russian Defence Ministry re. Zaporizhia and as China’s President Xi spoke
  • Currently, the benchmarks are in proximity to their respective highs of USD 89.56/bbl and USD 95.44/bbl.
  • Spot gold experienced a marginal haven bid bringing the yellow metal to an incremental new session peak of USD 1767/oz and eclipsing the 21-DMA at USD 1764/oz.
  • Broader metal space is mixed and features essentially unchanged action for Aluminium, after Wednesday’s noted rally, while LME Copper has climbed back towards a test of the USD 8k handle

Central Banks

  • ECB’s Schnabel says a recession alone would not be enough to control inflation, growth is going to slow and a technical EZ recession is possible. Inflation concerns from before the July hike have not alleviated, outlook is unchanged. Number of indicators point to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Short-term inflation could still accelerate. Re. fragmentation: markets are more stable now, but volatility is elevated and liquidity is low.
  • Norwegian Key Policy Rate 1.75% vs. Exp. 1.75% (Prev. 1.25%) via a unanimous decision; policy rate will most likely be raised further in September. Click here for reaction & newsquawk analysis.
  • BoE will aim to unwind the full stock of Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme (CBPS) holdings at end-2023/early-2024, subject to market conditions.
  • Turkey’s central bank shocked markets when it unexpectedly cut rates by 100bps to 13% from 14%. All 21 economists polled by Bloomberg had expected an unchanged print.

DB’s Tim Wessel concludes the overnight wrap

Starting in Europe, where the looming energy crisis remains at the forefront. An update from our team, who just published the fourth edition of their indispensable gas monitor (link here), where they note the surprisingly fast rebuild of German gas storage, driven by reductions in industrial activity, reduces the risk that rationing may become reality this winter. Many more insights within, so do read the full piece for analysis spanning scenarios. Keep in mind, that while gas may be available, it is set to come at a higher clearing price, which manifest itself in markets yesterday where European natural gas futures rose a further +2.64% to €226 per megawatt-hour, just shy of their closing record at €227 in March. But, that’s still well beneath their intraday high from March, where at one point they traded at €345. Further, one-year German power futures increased +6.30%, breaching €500 for the first time, closing at €507. Germany is weighing consumer relief measures in light of climbing consumer prices and also announced that planned nuclear facility closures would be “temporarily” postponed.

The upward energy price pressure and attenuated (albeit, not eliminated) risk of rationing pushed European sovereign yields higher. 10yr German bunds climbed +7.1bps to 0.97%, while 10yr OATs kept the pace, increasing +7.4bps. 10yr BTPs increased +15.9bps, widening sovereign spreads, while high yield crossover spreads widened +10.2bps in the credit space.

Equities were resilient, however, with the STOXX 600 posting a +0.16% gain after flitting around a narrow range all day. Regional indices were also robust to climbing energy prices, with the DAX up +0.68% and the CAC +0.34% higher. In the States the S&P 500 registered a modest +0.19% gain, with the NASDAQ mirroring the index, falling -0.19%. Retail shares drove the S&P on the day, with the two consumer sectors both gaining more than +1%, following strong earnings reports from Wal Mart and Home Depot.

Treasury yields also climbed, but the story was the further flattening in the curve. 2yr yields were +7.5bps higher while 10yr yields managed to increase just +1.6bps, leaving 2s10s at its second most negative close of the cycle at -46bps. 10yr yields are another basis point higher this morning. A hodgepodge of data painted a mixed picture. Housing permits beat expectations (+1674k vs. +1640k) while starts (+1446k vs. +1527k) fell to their slowest pace since February 2021. However, under the hood, even permits weren’t necessarily as strong as first glance, as single family permits fell -4.3% with gains in multifamily pushing the aggregate higher. Indeed, year-over-year, single family permits have now fallen -11.7% while multifamily permits are +23.5% higher. So the single family housing market continues to feel the impact of Fed tightening. Meanwhile, industrial production climbed +0.6% month-over-month (vs. +0.3%), with capacity utilization hitting its highest level since 2008 at 80.3%.

Drifting north of the border, Canadian inflation slowed to 7.6% YoY in July in line with estimates, while the average of core measures climbed to a record 5.3%. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem penned an opinion piece saying that while it looks like inflation may have peaked, “the bad news is that inflation will likely remain too high for some time.” In turn, Canadian OIS rates by December climbed +16.2bps.

In other data, the expectations component of the German ZEW survey fell to -55.3, its lowest level since October 2008 at the depths of the GFC. In the UK, regular pay (excluding bonuses) fell by -3.0% in real terms over the year to April-June 2022, its fastest decline on record.

On the Iranian nuclear deal, EU negotiators reportedly found Iran’s response constructive, though Iran still had some concerns. Notably, Iran is looking for guarantees that if a future US administration withdraws from the JCPOA the US will “have to pay a price”, seeking insulation from the vagaries of representative democracy.

Asian equity markets are trading higher after Wall Street’s solid performance overnight. The Nikkei (+0.76%) is leading gains across the region with the Hang Seng (+0.57%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.23%) and the CSI (+0.51%) all rebounding from its opening losses this morning. US futures are struggling to gain traction this morning with the S&P 500 (-0.02%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.09%) trading just below flat.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its official cash rate (OCR) for the fourth consecutive time by an expected +50bps to 3%, a seven-year high, while bringing forward the estimate of future rate increases. The central bank expects the OCR will reach 3.69% at the end of this year and expects it to peak at 4.1% in March 2023, higher and sooner than previously forecast.

Early morning data coming out from Japan showed that exports rose +19.0% y/y in July (v/s +17.6% expected) posting 17 straight months of gains while imports advanced +47.2% (v/s +45.5% expected) driven by global fuel inflation and a weakening yen. With the imports outweighing exports, the nation reported trade deficit for the 14th consecutive month, swelling to -2.13 trillion yen in July (v/s -1.91 trillion yen expected) compared to a revised deficit of -1.95 trillion yen in June.

In terms of the day ahead, the FOMC minutes from July will be the main highlight, and the other central bank speaker will be Fed Governor Bowman. Otherwise, earnings releases include Target, Lowe’s and Cisco Systems, and data releases include US retail sales and UK CPI for July.

END

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Crude climbs amid Russian rhetoric, Fixed steady after Schnabel induced pressure – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 06:44 AM

  • European bourses began the session mixed/flat and are yet to gain any real traction in relatively limited newsflow, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%.
  • Stateside, performance is similar ahead of a few corporate updates, data and Fed speak, ES +0.1%
  • WTI and Brent were bolstered by rhetoric from the Russian Defence Ministry re. Zaporizhia and as China’s President Xi spoke
  • Spot gold experienced a marginal haven bid while broader metals are more mixed.
  • DXY lifted to near 107.00, EUR relatively resilient amid hawkish Schnabel commentary while NOK climbs post-Norges
  • Core fixed have stabilised after initial pronounced pressure in Bunds on ECB rhetoric USTs essentially unchanged
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, Existing Home Sales, New Zealand Trade Balance, CBRT Policy Announcement Speeches from Fed’s George, Fed’s Kashkari & ECB’s Schnabel.

As of 11:15BST/06:15ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, Existing Home Sales, New Zealand Trade Balance, CBRT Policy Announcement Speeches from Fed’s George, Fed’s Kashkari & ECB’s Schnabel.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • US senior administration official said the US supports Ukraine conducting strikes on Russian-occupied Crimea if Kyiv deems it is necessary, according to Politico.
  • Russia’s Defence Ministry says Ukraine is preparing a ‘provocation’ at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant on August 19th. Subsequently, saying the Zaporizhia nuclear plant could be shut down if Ukraine continues shelling, via Ria and that back-up support systems at the nuclear site have been damaged by shelling activity. In the event of an accident at the plant, radioactive substances will cover Poland, Germany and Slovakia.
  • Russian President Putin hinted he could meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky, via CNN Turk citing Russian sources; hint reportedly occurred at the August 5th Sochi summit, when Putin met Turkish President Erdogan.
  • EU Foreign Ministers to discuss on August 31st possible visa code changes for a considerable reduction in the issuance of visa’s to Russians, via Nexta.

TAIWAN

  • US top diplomat for East Asia Kritenbrink said China overreacted and that several warships remain around Taiwan, while he expects China’s pressure campaign around Taiwan to continue and said the US remains committed to the One China policy. Furthermore, he noted the US approach on Taiwan has remained consistent and that they do not support Taiwan’s independence, but added that what has changed is Beijing’s increasing coercion and that China’s words and actions are deeply destabilising.
  • US and Taiwan are to begin formal trade talks “early this fall, according to Bloomberg.

OTHER NEWS

  • US and South Korea’s joint statement noted that their expanding military drills point to closer bilateral ties and said the next North Korean nuclear test could lead the US to deploy strategic assets to South Korea, according to SCMP.

EUROPEAN TRADE

CENTRAL BANKS

  • ECB’s Schnabel says a recession alone would not be enough to control inflation, growth is going to slow and a technical EZ recession is possible. Inflation concerns from before the July hike have not alleviated, outlook is unchanged. Number of indicators point to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Short-term inflation could still accelerate. Re. fragmentation: markets are more stable now, but volatility is elevated and liquidity is low.
  • Norwegian Key Policy Rate 1.75% vs. Exp. 1.75% (Prev. 1.25%) via a unanimous decision; policy rate will most likely be raised further in September. Click here for reaction & newsquawk analysis.
  • BoE will aim to unwind the full stock of Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme (CBPS) holdings at end-2023/early-2024, subject to market conditions.

EQUITIES

  • European bourses began the session mixed/flat and are yet to gain any real traction in relatively limited newsflow, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%.
  • Though, it is worth pointing out DAX 40 +1.0% outperformance, after lagging on Wednesday, amid strength in their heavyweight industry names.
  • Stateside, performance is similar ahead of a few corporate updates, data and Fed speak, ES +0.1%
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Buck bounces after brief post-FOMC minutes dip on dovish elements, DXY touches Fib at 106.960 from 106.500 low.
  • Euro derives more support from rising EGB yields amidst hawkish ECB commentary, EUR/USD holds around 1.0150 amidst raft of option expiries extending beyond 1.0200.
  • Norwegian Krona underpinned by another half point hike from Norges Bank and signal for further tightening in September, EUR/NOK towards base of 9.8550-9.9150 range.
  • Aussie finds support at psychological level against Greenback after mixed jobs data, but Kiwi cautious ahead of NZ trade, AUD/USD nearer 0.6950 than 0.6900, NZD/USD closer to 0.6250 than 0.6300.
  • Sterling still stunned by double digit UK CPI and economic ramifications, Cable ducks under 1.2000, albeit fractionally and briefly.
  • Loonie gleans some traction from firmer oil prices pre-Canadian PPI, USD/CAD closer to 1.2900 than 1.2950.
  • Yuan retreats amidst reports of property loan portfolio probes and PBoC LPR cuts, USD/CNY 6.7900+ and USD/CNH 6.8000+.
  • Click herefor more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 1.0145-55 (1.61BN), 1.0165-75 (1.61BN), 1.0185 (265M), 1.0200-05 (1.81BN), 1.0215-25 (1.82BN)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • EGBs and Gilts regain some poise after extended and heavy declines on hawkish ECB rhetoric.
  • Bunds back up near 154.00 within 154.47-153.24 range, UK benchmark 114.00+ between 114.41-113.63 parameters.
  • US Treasuries idling post-FOMC minutes and pre-busy agenda – 10 year T-note flat at 118.24+ vs 119-01+ high and 118-18 low.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent were bolstered by rhetoric from the Russian Defence Ministry re. Zaporizhia and as China’s President Xi spoke
  • Currently, the benchmarks are in proximity to their respective highs of USD 89.56/bbl and USD 95.44/bbl.
  • Spot gold experienced a marginal haven bid bringing the yellow metal to an incremental new session peak of USD 1767/oz and eclipsing the 21-DMA at USD 1764/oz.
  • Broader metal space is mixed and features essentially unchanged action for Aluminium, after Wednesday’s noted rally, while LME Copper has climbed back towards a test of the USD 8k handle
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE DATA

  • EU HICP Final YY (Jul) 8.9% vs. Exp. 8.9% (Prev. 8.9%); X F & E Final YY (Jul) 5.1% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 5.0%)
  • X F, E, A & T Final YY (Jul) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.0%)

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks mostly declined following the weak handover from global counterparts which were pressured as yields climbed on the back of the red-hot UK inflation data and with only a brief reprieve seen after the FOMC Minutes noted many officials saw a risk the Fed could tighten more than necessary.
  • ASX 200 was subdued as participants digested the latest influx of earnings releases and disappointing jobs data which showed a surprise contraction in headline Employment Change.
  • Nikkei 225 slipped back beneath the 29,000 level in tandem with the overall downbeat sentiment.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the glum mood after both Goldman Sachs and Nomura cut their China GDP growth forecasts and with focus also on earnings releases including Tencent after it posted its first-ever decline in quarterly revenue although its shares were lifted and it had vowed a return to growth, while Country Garden led the declines after the developer issued a profit warning of as much as an 87% drop in H1 net.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • China may issue CNY 1.5tln in additional debt as part of an investment push, according to China Securities News.
  • China’s COVID-19 cases rose to a 3-month high of 3,424 on Wednesday from 2,888 the day before.
    • Nomura cut its China 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.3%.
    • China’s MOFCOM says, re. US CHIPS act, some provisions restrict normal economic, trade and investment activities of relevant enterprises in China. Will, when necessary, take forceful measures to safeguard interests.
    • China’s President Xi says they will persist with opening up the economy, via CCTV.
    • China’s banking regulator is reportedly looking into the property sector loan portfolios of some local/foreign lenders to assess systemic risk, via Reuters citing sources.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Employment (Jul) -40.9k vs. Exp. 25.0k (Prev. 88.4k); Full-Time Employment (Jul) -86.9k (Prev. 52.9k)
  • Australian Unemployment Rate (Jul) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%); Participation Rate (Jul) 66.4% vs. Exp. 66.8% (Prev. 66.8%)

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.94 PTS OR 0.46%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 158.54 OR 0.80%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 280.63 OR % 0.96.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.32%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7882//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.7946//    /Oil UP TO 89.02  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 95.04//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

Young Japanese not drinking as much and that cuts Japanese government tax haul

(zerohedge)

Japan Wants People To Drink More Alcohol As Generational Trend Cuts Tax Haul

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 10:00 AM

In some sort of Bizarro World scenario, declining alcohol consumption is causing alarm in the halls of Japanese government, as the trend is putting a big dent in the country’s tax haul.

Average adult alcohol intake dropped from 100 liters a year in 1995 to 75 liters in 2020. Meanwhile, alcohol taxes declined from providing 3% of Japan’s tax revenue in 2011 to 2% in 2020.

As the Financial Times explains, much of the trend can be attributed to demographics:

A fall in the total volume of alcohol consumed in Japan was inevitable once the indigenous population began to shrink over a decade ago and the proportion of citizens aged over 65 increased to more than a quarter of the country eight years ago. 

Reflecting a worldwide phenomenon, Japan’s younger generations aren’t drinking as much as their parents and grandparents did. 

The general downtrend gained steam when the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted lifestyles. Restaurants and bars closed or limited their operations, and people socialized less and shifted to working from home. “Many people may have come to question whether they need to continue the habit of drinking with colleagues to deepen communication,” a tax official told the Japan Times.  

The drop in revenue from 2018 to 2020 was the largest in 31 years. Taxes took a big hit in 1989 with a major change in Japan’s Liquor Tax Law. 

Fear not — having admitted it has an alcohol problem, Japan’s tax agency will no longer sit idle while sobriety insidiously spreads throughout the population. A government campaign is afoot to encourage people to hit the bottle. 

The first phase of the drinking drive is a contest called “Sake Viva!“, which asks Japanese citizens between the ages of 20 and 39 to come up with fresh ideas for juicing the country’s alcohol business. In addition to seeking “new products and designs” and new sales methods, the tax agency also wants strategies to encourage people to drink at home, reports The Guardian

After winners are named at a gala in November, the tax office plans to promote the adoption of the winning ideas by alcohol-related businesses. Japan’s health ministry isn’t participating in the contest, but said it trusted the ensuing campaigns would emphasize drinking only “the appropriate amount of alcohol.” 

  

end

3c CHINA

CHINA//

Are we heading for a China devaluation?  Looks like it

(Vannelli/Knowledge Leaders Capital Blog)

Is A Chinese Devaluation Imminent?

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 05:15 PM

Authored by Steven Vannelli via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog,

Over the weekend, we got a slew of data showing a generally weak economy. Below are the actual data compared with the expectations from Bloomberg.

Of course, the headline grabber was the -31.4% drop in residential property sales, but across the board, from industrial production to retail sales to investment came in shy of estimates.

This makes it incredibly unlikely that China is going to hit its growth target this year when all the components are running below estimates. Retail sales are currently running 0.5% behind calendar year estimates, while industrial production is running 0.7% behind and fixed asset investment is 0.3% behind.

Really the only thing working in China right now is exports.

While it is leading to a growing trade surplus.

And, exports are again growing as a percent of GDP.

Despite the clear evidence of weak economic growth, China is not launching a huge stimulus program like it did after the Great Financial Crisis.

Instead they are tinkering around the edges. For example, yesterday China cut the medium-term lending facility by a token 10bps. They cut the 7-day repurchase rate by 10bps too.

And, they are preparing the banking system for a more difficult liquidity environment by dropping the required reserve ratio.

This last chart leads us to the real variable of interest: the CNY level. It looks like the Chinese Yuan is about to break out on the downside.

Looking at interest rate differentials with the US illustrates this point well. For short rates, I compare the upper bound of the US fed funds to overnight SHIBOR. This relationship suggests a CNY with a 7-handle.

Next, looking at medium-term rates, the picture is the same.

And finally, longer-term rates tell the same story.

China’s export dependence and falling global growth expectations are one more reason to expect a weaker CNY.

A weaker CNY will be a tailwind for lower inflation in the US. If the CNY exceeds 7.0, this should correspond to 10-year breakeven inflation around 1%.

With inflation in the US already coming down, a further weakening of the CNY will simply accelerate that process, taking the heat off the Fed to raise rates well into restrictive territory.

END

CHINA/POWER CRISIS

Chongqing municipal government orders factories to suspend production through August 24 due to heat wave as demand surges

(zerohedge)

China’s Power Crisis Worsens As More Factories Suspend Operations

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 09:40 AM

A heatwave-induced power crisis is spreading across southwestern China, shuttering factories and worsening by the day, according to Nikkei Asia

The latest news from China is the Chongqing municipal government ordered factories, including Japanese-owned ones, to suspend production through Aug. 24 to conserve power as demand surges because of extreme heat. 

Chongqing is following its neighbor, Sichuan Province, which announced earlier this week that slumping hydropower generation has led to the closure of some of the world’s largest multinationals, including Toyota Motor Corp. and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.

Moody’s Vice President and Senior Credit Officer Boris Kan pointed out the heatwave will only boost China’s reliance on coal-fired generation. 

In Chongqing, specifically in the Liangjiang area, power demand has surged because extreme heat led to a spike in air conditioner use. Chongqing has a high concentration of factories that make automobiles and computers, and their shutdowns to conserve power could impact global supply chains. 

“Previously, the government had only required that factories cease production during consumption peaks, but the tight power supply-demand situation has become so severe that shutdowns were deemed necessary,” Nikkie Asia said. 

State-owned Chongqing Changan Automobile, U.S.-based Ford Motor, BYD Auto, and Taiwanese electronics manufacturers are some companies in Chongqing. 

And while a power crisis festers in the country’s southwestern part, Chinese President Xi Jinping addressed the critical situation on Thursday. He called on local authorities to resolve the severe drought in some provinces threatening electricity supplies, adding it could impact economic growth. 

Despite the heatwave and factory shutdowns, President Xi also said China would open up its economy even as globalization has experienced a rise in protectionism in some parts of the world. 

Good luck with the reopening, as July’s economic data is very alarming, which forced the country’s central bank to cut its key interest rates earlier this week unexpectedly. Compound a power crisis and factory closures to an already souring economic outlook (thanks to zero-Covid policies and a collapsing property sector), and China’s downturn appears to be deepening. 

end

CHINA/COVID/SHANGHAI

This is what is going on in Shanghai:  a case of COVID inside an IKEA store causes a stampede out of the store when

officials announced a sudden COVID lockdown. COVID zero madness reigns supreme in China

(zerohedge)

 Shoppers At Shanghai Ikea Flee Sudden COVID Lockdown

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 09:50 PM

Though America’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) took a turn toward Covid rationality last week, “Zero-Covid” madness is still raging in China.

Just ask the poor people who were at a Shanghai Ikea on Saturday evening. One minute they’re innocently eyeing furniture and appliances, the next they’re being told they can’t leave the store or go home. 

An announcement was made over the store’s public address system, notifying shoppers the store had been ordered to close and to prevent anyone from leaving, due to contact tracing. Shocked by suddenly being condemned to quarantine, many opted to make a run for it.

Video captured a dystopian scene in which guards attempt to close doors on the escapees, some of whom are screaming in their panic. The guards were overpowered, but it’s not clear what happened to the fleeing shoppers next. 

Those who were trapped in the store had to first linger there for four hours — from 8pm til midnight — before being transported to quarantine hotels, reports Bloomberg. Then they faced quarantine for two days followed by five days of monitoring. 

The mass-detention was triggered merely because a close contact of a six-year-old boy who tested positive had visited the store. It’s not clear if that individual was in the store at the time. What’s more, the 6-year old wasn’t even symptomatic

While the video of the incident is dramatic, it’s hardly the first such episode, as Chinese citizens continue to live in a dark game of contact-tracing roulette. Others have been suddenly detained while working in offices, exercising at gyms or dining in restaurants. 

Of China’s major cities, Shanghai has been hit hardest. Between March 10 and July 31 of this year alone, the city endured 92 days of full or partial lockdown. This spring, it got to the point where apartment-dwellers were screaming in unison from their balconies

Last week, the CDC updated its guidelines, with one of the bureaucracy’s epidemiologists saying “we know that Covid-19 is here to stay.” Two proclamations were particularly welcome, even if they were terribly overdue: 

  • “It’s no longer recommended to screen those without symptoms.”
  • “Unvaccinated people now have the same guidance as vaccinated people.” 

In China, however, there’s no sign that the Zero-Covid regime will be relaxed anytime soon, despite mounting damage to China’s economy, and despite growing Chinese discontent.  

end

Companies inside China like Apple are drawing up contingency plans on a potential invasion of Taiwan risk(zerohedge)

Companies Draw Up Contingency Plans On Chinese Invasion Risk

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Last month FBI director Christopher Wray recalled at a speaking event in London that many Western companies were caught flat-footed at the moment of Russia’s assault on Ukraine. “There were a lot of western companies that had their fingers still in that door when it slammed shut,” Wray said of the Feb.24 massive military offensive.

But then he quickly transitioned to potential parallels over simmering Taiwan tensions: “If China does invade Taiwan, we could see the same thing again, at a much larger scale. Just as in Russia, western investments built over years could become hostages, capital stranded, supply chains and relationships disrupted,” he said at the time.

And yet since that mid-July speech, the stakes and pressure have grown by leaps and bounds following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s August 2nd-3rd visit to Taiwan, leading a Congressional delegation as the highest ranking American official to go there in 25 years, which triggered over a week of Chinese military and live-fire exercises which encircled the self-ruled island. 

Already, according to a fresh Wednesday announcement Apple is in the process of moving production of its MacBook and Apple Watch to Vietnam in a major development, though Apple and China have been inextricably linked for close to two decades. As TechCrunch details, “According to Nikkei Asia, Luxshare Precision Industry, Apple’s Chinese supplier, and Foxconn, a Taiwan-based supplier, have begun test production of the Apple Watch in northern Vietnam.”

With tensions heating up so rapidly this summer between the Washington and Beijing over Taiwan, a number of multinational and West-based companies are now hastily drawing up “contingency plans” in the event of a military conflict. This especially after Chinese state media declared that the PLA military drills were a “rehearsal for reunification” of Taiwan with the mainland.

Of these contingencies at a moment many multinationals are so deeply invested with their proverbial eggs in one basket in China, the FT observes in a new report:

The intensified planning by business leaders in the US, Europe, Japan and elsewhere is a signal that investors in China no longer consider an invasion of Taiwan to be merely a low probability “black swan” risk to the world’s second-biggest economy.

“There’s a lot of scenario thinking going on . . . all the way to: ‘What shall we do in case there is a war? Should we close our China operations? How can we sustain our business and overcome possible blockades?’” said Jörg Wuttke, head of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China.

But the problem runs significantly deeper and beyond diversifying outside of one geopolitical simmering hotspot, underscores David Mahon, a Beijing-based western investment manager and adviser. Referencing major regional companies like New Zealand dairy exporter Fonterra, he pointed to the remaining issue of…

“They’ve been advised to diversify. The question is ‘where?’ Do I just stop taking profit for the next five years? There’s nowhere to go,” said Mahon. Fonterra said it closely monitored geopolitical developments and that “China continues to be a profitable market with excellent prospects.”

Other analysts cited in the report posed the biggest looming obvious dilemma, “Is it realistically possible for the global economy to have a US-China decoupling?”

The contingency plans now being hotly debated in boardrooms are said to be gaming out various emergency scenarios – covering everything from having temporary supply chain alternatives in place to ways that their personnel and staff could be rapidly evacuated if hostilities break out.

Recently, a number of high profile DC-based and international consulting firms said they are seeing a sharp increase in clients seeking briefings on war risks between China and Taiwan, following US defense and intelligence leaders spotlighting the potential for conflict amid the backdrop of the ongoing Ukraine war. The general atmosphere of unpreparedness during the last February Russian invasion of Ukraine is also fueling this in large part.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

EUROPE/GAS AND OIL SITUATION:

The following commentary gives us an update on how Europe is reacting to the scarcity of natural gas.

(Kimani/OilPrice.com)

Gas-To-Oil Switch May Not Be A Huge Catalyst For EU Crude Demand

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 02:00 AM

By Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com

Last week, oil prices finished the week in the green, gaining 3.5% after tumbling nearly 10% a week earlier thanks to a weakening dollar after better-than-expected inflation data altered interest rate expectations from the Fed. Unfortunately, the oil price rally has been snuffed out in a dramatic fashion. WTI and Brent crude have both declined more than 5% in Monday’s morning session to trade at $87.31/bbl and 93.16/bbl on demand fears as disappointing Chinese economic data renewed global recession concerns. China’s central bank cut key lending rates in a bid to revive demand as the latest data showed the economy unexpectedly slowing in July–and the market wasn’t expecting it. 

China’s industrial output grew 3.8% in July from a year earlier, well below the 4.6% consensus on Wall Street. The grim set of figures is an indication that the world’s largest importer of crude is struggling to shake off the effects of Beijing’s Covid restrictions months earlier.

Coupled with high oil price volatility, this is taking a heavy toll on oil prices, with Brent crude open interest this month down 20% compared to a year ago levels.

“Open interest is still falling, with some (market players) not interested in touching it because of volatility. That is, in my view, the reason resulting in higher volumes to the downside,” UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo has said, adding that the trigger for Monday’s drop was weak Chinese data.

But a slowing Chinese economy might be just one of a host of bearish catalysts that might conspire to keep oil prices grounded if Europe’s natural gas stockpiles are any indication.

Gas to Oil Switching

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, dozens of Eurozone countries pledged to heavily cut Russian natural gas imports or halt them completely as soon as they can afford to. These countries took several aggressive measures to replenish their natural gas stockpiles ahead of the winter season, including  reaching a political agreement to cut gas use by 15% through next winter.

And now there’s a growing sense that Europe might not only meet its gas targets but also exceed them. European governments had been worried that Russia’s cut in supplies through its main gas pipeline to Germany would leave many of them with less than sufficient supplies for the winter season. However, many European nations have managed to build up ample gas storage by switching from gas to coal for some power plants, steadily curbing gas demand, and increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

According to a report by the Observer Research Foundation, energy supply disruptions triggered by Russia’s war on Ukraine took LNG prices even higher leaving coal as the only option for dispatchable and affordable power in much of Europe, including the tough markets of Western Europe and North America that have explicit policies to phase out coal.

Coal mines and power plants that closed shop 10 years ago have begun to be repaired in Germany. Now, Germany looks set to burn at least 100,000 tons of coal per month by winter. That’s a big U-turn considering that Germany’s goal had been to phase out all coal-generated electricity by 2038.

Nor is Germany alone: Austria, Poland, the Netherlands and Greece are also gearing up for coal plant restarts, while China’s coal imports have been surging, increasing 24% month-to-month in July as power generators increased purchases to provide for peak summer electricity demand. China has the largest number of operational coal power plants with 3,037 while Germany, the largest economy in the EU has 63.

As a result, thermal coal, which is the variety used to generate power, has seen a 170% rise in price since the end of 2021–most of those gains made following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Ramped-up LNG imports have also helped, with the EU importing 21.36 million tonnes of LNG in the first half of 2022, up from just 8.21 million tonnes during last year’s comparable period. In a historical precedent, Europe is now taking in more American LNG than piped Russian gas.

The result: injections to Europe’s gas storage are running about nine weeks ahead of last year, an impressive feat even after flows from Russia have been severely curtailed. European gas storage levels are above 70%, and have even surpassed the 5-year average, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). 

By November 1st, the EU will likely hit 80% natural gas storage capacity–just in time for peak winter demand. Germany is even aiming for 95% capacity, and is already at 75%. 

This is set to curb oil demand since some operators have begun switching from gas to oil generation due to high natural gas prices.  “The EU already surpassed its September 1 interim filling target in early July and is still on pace to reach the November 1 target,” Jacob Mandel, senior associate for commodities at Aurora Energy Research, has told Reuters.

Indeed, analysts at Standard Chartered Plc are saying that President Vladimir Putin’s gas weapon will be effectively blunted by the inventory build, with Europe set to go through winter “comfortably” without Russian gas.

More than enough natural gas available will, unfortunately, lower oil demand as an alternative. That said, Europe will have to pay a heavy price: the cost of replenishing natural gas stocks is estimated at over 50 billion euros ($51 billion), 10 times more than the historical average for filling up tanks ahead of winter.

END

Europe’s Energy Crisis Will Help Lift Oil Out Of Its Dip

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 05:00 AM

By Rob Verdonck, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and analyst

Crude will likely rally into the year end as Europe’s energy crisis outweighs news on supply.

Oil prices have slumped on signs of a deepening global slowdown as more supply from Libya and, potentially, Iran ease the market’s fundamental tightness — but traders may still be underestimating the full ramifications of Europe’s energy crisis.

I have been stunned by the relentless surge in European natural gas, a market I’ve been following closely for almost two decades, and can’t imagine that prices there soaring to almost $375 a barrel of oil equivalent won’t have knock-on effects.

It’s hard to gauge the full ramifications on oil but the rally that has seen European gas surge 160% over the past two months, in what is usually a quiet time of low demand, doesn’t look like it’s ending anytime soon and may see a last hurrah for the region’s aging oil-fired plants.

Add that extra demand to the start of Europe’s ban on Russian crude later this year and the energy crisis is almost certain to warm up crude trading going into winter.

end

Winter Is Coming For Europe As Stagflation And Energy Crises Are Set To Bite

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“The Long Hot Summer just passed me by….“

Winter is coming as soaring gas prices are set to bite across Europe. Putin’s energy insecurity strategy has proved his major success and could yet win him the Ukraine War. Stagflation is nailed on it Europe.

There is a definite hint of autumn this morning; a heavy dew, mist on the river, a chill in the air even though we know it will hit 30 degrees later, and a growing sense the year has turned. As temperatures drop, it’s time to think about winter power.

But first, a short aside to start the week: Wasps (Vespula Vulgaris)

Wasps fascinate and terrify me in equal measure. They are evil personified, yet perfectly designed and as important for our ecology as bees. They are critical pollinators, and provide excellent garden pest control. They are impossible to domesticate. Wasps and Humans interreact best by staying out each other’s way.

Through the Wasp-year the workers collect meat to feed to their larva which in return exude a sugary treat the adult yellowjackets crave. (Adult wasps are vegetarian.) In late summer Wasp Nests go into decline – the new queens mate and fly-off, the old worn-out queens die, no more eggs are laid, and the last generation of worker Wasps turn feral searching for sweet stuff, becoming a pest at picnics. Some years they become a real problem when they feast on rotting fermenting fruit – effectively getting drunk and thus more aggressive. By the end of Autumn the nest will have died completely. It’s a somewhat dystopian life-cycle – but next year the new queens will emerge from their winter hiding holes and start again.

It’s been a great summer for Wasps – from their perspective. This year I notice they are still foraging for meat – we watched them strip some chicken to bone in moments last night – suggesting the nests remain healthy and thriving, which means more of them will survive into the late summer rotting fruit booze up and stinging season. The solution – baited traps with cider and jam.

What have wasps got to do with markets?

Like all things Wasps are a story of balance – when conditions are right… they thrive, causing consequences – more stings. In the South of England, the hottest summer on record means more wasps than usual. In the North of Scotland it’s been cold and wet, and none to be seen. Come the winter, Wasps are a problem largely forgotten.

What about markets? How much in balance are they? This winter is going to be an economic shocker.

As said before markets are a game of multiple inputs. The US is on a completely different recovery path to Europe – yet western economies remain closely linked.

The big question: stocks staged a bear market through H1 2022, but then the trend flipped. 4 weeks of unparalleled gains since Mid-July leaves the S&P 500 17% up. Is it the first leg of a new bull market, or a bear trap? The stock optimists say US inflation has peaked – the first sign being last week’s slowing in the pack of Consumer prices, that US jobs remain strongly bid and declining oil prices show the energy crisis is passing. (Bond markets – and in bonds there is truth – are still rising in yield term..)

Oil prices in the US may be declining.

Gas prices are not. Gas provides nearly a quarter of European Energy – over 40% of it comes from Russia. European gas prices are still rocketing higher, a massive crisis for economic activity where gas prices are an unbelievable 600% up on the year, with no sign they will ease. It’s the biggest economic threat to Europe since 1939. We’re all aware it’s the result of massive energy security miscalculations across the continent:

  • Germany assumed Russian Gas would always be cheap, available and plentiful.
  • The Netherlands and Italy assumed Gas would always flow through Germany and winter reserves could be built up during the quiet and cheap summer months.
  • The UK neglected energy storage and the development of domestic Gas as a transition fuel, and assumed Gas supplies would always be available on the open market – failing to foresee the possibility of massive disruption events.
  • France is struggling with Nuclear Power – half the French reactor “fleet” is currently idled.
  • Across Europe Nuclear has been painted as wrong and non-green, development of new nuclear power has generally stalled or become too expensive.

Already consumers are experiencing massive shocks in terms of their monthly power bills, but the brutal reality is the Long Hot Summer means we’ve barely experienced the real consequences of the soaring Gas price shock. The costs already hurt, but the economic damage could be crippling. It will become unavoidable. Crisis approaches… and soon. Winter is coming…

Vladimir Putin could not have planned or executed his crippling energy strike on Europe better.

While we promise ourselves Western Sanctions must be impacting Russia, the reality is Europe’s problems are about to get much, much worse through the run up to Winter. What possible incentives does Russia have to increase Nord Stream 1 supplies from their current 20% of capacity? They can feed Europe 1/6 of the Energy they delivered in January this year, and still make as much – selling the rest to the very many nations that have failed to condemn to assault on Ukraine. They may decide to cut supplies completely even as planned maintenance in Norway’s gas infrastructure cuts supplies.

A dismal European winter is coming, and European politicians will do anything to avert it. That will include appeasement – putting pressure on Ukraine to come to a deal with Russia that allows Putin to end the war looking like he achieved something. It would be a major long-term blow to Europe – knowing we’d had to cut a deal with the Devil, and would not immediately solve the West’s reliance on Russian power. (It could take 3 years before Europe can eliminate its reliance of Russian gas with new gas distribution infrastructure – but it can be done!)

Power cuts, factory closures, business crisis already appear nailed on. It’s difficult to contemplate German workers welcoming job losses and stagflation, plus the expectation they pay the costs of Southern Europe to cope with the Energy war – but that’s effectively the ECB strategy: to balance European debt market credibility with German money to support Italy’s debt weakness.

While there may be many good reasons and indications to accept the US economy has already passed the nadir of economic woe for this year, the instability engendered by rising European energy prices, the threat of autumnal and winter power outages, combined with rising industrial strife across Europe as inflation and power trigger rising wage demands… means the whole Western Economy is going to struggle. It’s difficult to envisage the US market thriving when Europe is suffering a potentially crippling winter of stagflation and economic strife.

At its most basic the strength of an economy boils down to how much consumption is occurring. Are consumers spending – do they have money to spend? Are companies investing? Is the government boosting economic activity through fiscal policy?

Consumers are in shock after the energy price shock and rising interest rates have put credit-addicted lifestyles on hold. Governments are trying to rein back spending on fears hefty debt loads and the looming threat of inflation will destabilise their economy: the virtuous sovereign credit of i) political stability, ii) steady bond market, iii) and a stable currency are under increasing threat, while corporates are looking at consumption and shaking their heads on new investments. How are government’s responding? With more austerity! We are doomed…

Europe looks a lot like a wasp’s nest at the end of summer – things may get substantially more painful.

end

GERMANY//

IDIOT!

(Watson/SummitNews)

German Official Trashes Cost Of Living Protesters As “Enemies Of The State”

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A top German official has trashed people who may be planning to protest against energy blackouts as “enemies of the state” and “extremists” who want to overthrow the government.

The interior minister of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Herbert Reul (CDU), says that anti-mandatory vaxx and anti-lockdown demonstrators have found a new cause – the energy crisis.

In an interview with German news outlet NT, Reul revealed that German security services were keeping an eye on “extremists” who plan to infiltrate the protests and stage violence, with the unrest being planned via the Telegram messenger app, which German authorities have previously tried to ban.

“You can already tell from those who are out there,” said Reul. “The protesters no longer talk about coronavirus or vaccination. But they are now misusing people’s worries and fears in other fields. (…) It’s almost something like new enemies of the state that are establishing themselves.”

Despite the very real threat of potential blackouts, power grid failures and gas shortages, Reul claimed such issues were feeding “conspiracy theory narratives.”

However, it’s no “conspiracy theory” that Germans across the country have been panic buying stoves, firewood and electric heaters as the government tells them thermostats will be limited to 19C in public buildings and that sports arenas and exhibition halls will be used as ‘warm up spaces’ this winter to help freezing citizens who are unable to afford skyrocketing energy bills.

As Remix News reports, blaming right-wing conspiracy theorists for a crisis caused by Germany’s sanctions on Russia and is suicidal dependence on green energy is pretty rich.

“Reul, like the country’s federal interior minister, Nancy Faeser, is attempting to tie right-wing ideology and protests against Covid-19 policies to any potential protests in the winter.”

“While some on the right, such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD), have stressed that the government’s sanctions against Russia are the primary factor driving the current energy crisis, they have not advocated an “overthrow” of the government. Instead, they have stressed the need to restart the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, end energy sanctions against Russia, and push for a peaceful solution to end the war.”

Indeed, energy shortages and the cost of living crisis are issues that are of major concern to everyone, no matter where they are on the political spectrum.

To claim that people worried about heating their homes and putting food on the table this winter are all “enemies of the state” is an utter outrage.

As we highlighted last week, the president of the Thuringian Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Stephan Kramer, said energy crisis riots would make anti-lockdown unrest look like a “children’s birthday party.”

“Mass protests and riots are just as conceivable as concrete acts of violence against things and people, as well as classic terrorism to overthrow it,” Kramer told ZDF.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/KALININGRAD

Huge escalation as Russia deploys MIG fighters armed with hypersonic missiles to enclave Kaliningrad in the Baltics

(zerohedge)

Russia Deploys MiG Fighters Armed With Hypersonic Missiles To Kaliningrad

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 11:40 AM

Russia’s defense ministry announced Thursday that it has deployed fighter planes equipped with cutting edge hypersonic missiles to its Baltic region exclave of Kaliningrad, which a statement said will provide “additional measures of strategic deterrence.” 

The statement detailed that three MiG-31 fighters armed with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles have landed at the Chkalovsk air base in Kaliningrad Oblast. The defense ministry emphasized that the warplanes will be put on “round-the-clock alert” – at a moment tensions with Ukraine’s powerful Western backers like the United States continue to soar.

On a few alleged occasions over the last six months of war in Ukraine, Russia has been accused of launching hypersonic missiles on Ukrainian targets; however, the Pentagon has downplayed that it’s not a gamechanger.

But such an intentionally publicized move as placing hypersonic missile armed MiG fighters on “alert” at Russia’s Baltic outpost is an escalatory move aimed at NATO and Ukraine’s Western backers which have been ramping up longer-range missile and weapons shipments to Kiev. Kaliningrad borders NATO members Poland and Lithuania, both of which will see this move as a severe threat to their national security.

The Associated Press is reporting that Finland is alarmed its airspace may have been violated by the MiGs as they were en route to the Kaliningrad base:

A video released by the Defense Ministry showed the fighters arriving at the base but not carrying the missiles, which were apparently delivered separately.

Finland’s Defense Ministry said Thursday that two Russian MIG-31 fighter jets were suspected of having violating Finnish airspace in the Gulf of Finland off the southern town of Porvoo, west of Helsinki. The Nordic country’s Border Guard started a preliminary investigation into the incident.

The Russian MoD and state media released video of the MiG fighters arriving in Kaliningrad. Ukraine government-linked officials have also highlighted the transfer with alarm…

As for Finland, Germany earlier in the week said that the military alliance will seek to fast-track its membership in NATO after its controversial application alongside Sweden. This after prior Kremlin warnings that doing so could unleash a nuclear arms build-up and standoff in the Baltics.

Moscow had already bolstered its forces in Kaliningrad with precision-guided, nuclear-capable Iskander missiles and other advanced systems, and for years there have already been concerns in Europe and the West that it could build-up nuclear weapons there – at installations a mere 50 miles from Poland.

However, Russia claims it is exercising “nuclear responsibility” and that it must take steps to ‘deter’ threats from the West amid the Ukraine conflict:

“The events in Ukraine demonstrated that a clash with the collective West is a real possibility,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ivan Nechayev said Thursday while emphasizing that a “direct confrontation with the U.S. and NATO isn’t in our interests.”

Speaking at a briefing, Nechayev said: “Russia as a nuclear power will continue to act with maximum responsibility” and “the Russian military doctrine envisages a nuclear response only in retaliation to an aggression involving weapons of mass destruction or in a situation when the very existence of the state comes under threat.”

But he stressed that apart from the nuclear question, Russia’s military possesses enough conventional weapons “allow it to fully implement the goals set by the Russian president” – in reference to the “special operation” in Ukraine ordered by Putin.

“We proceed from the assumption that the U.S. and NATO are aware where their aggressive anti-Russian rhetoric with an emphasis on a possible use of nuclear weapons can lead to,” Nechayev said.

RUSSIA/UK

Russia warns the uK not to send a planned spy plane over Russian airspace

(zerohedge)

Robert Hryniak9:55 AM (1 minute ago)
to

I think that i mentioned the intrusion to you. Clearly, the BRITS are pushing the envelope. As it is, many Ukrainians now in the Ukraine realize that their conflict efforts are directed by Brits on the ground and the dead and MIA’s are the Brit’s handiwork. Russia is well aware of British influence and control. Ukrainians are simply expendable cannon fodder. 

This may also have something to do with the fact they have been excluded from Forex settlement trade amongst the BRIC’s and there new settlement system coming that will encompass the BRIC, SCO, Eurasia and host of other countries. The USD and Euro are also excluded. This will come as a major shift away from previous hegemony control. This does not bode well for the square mile nor the country longer term. Reality maybe Britain will not be the same place it is today. And in fact maybe much smaller in size as a result. And this suggests that existent territories will likely see change as well. 

Sometimes when elephants dance it is wiser to keep a distance.

END

RUSSIA/(CRIMEA/UKRAINE)

Multiple Explosions Rock Russia’s Crimean Port City Of Sevastopol

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 04:17 PM

Update(1617ET): There are breaking unconfirmed reports that Russian base near Russia’s Crimean Sevastopol naval base is under attack. According to Reuters Belbek air base may have come under attack:

  • AT LEAST FOUR EXPLOSIONS ROCK CITY OF SEVASTOPOL IN RUSSIAN-ANNEXED CRIMEA – LOCAL SOURCES
  • CRIMEAN SOURCES SAY BLASTS TOOK PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BELBEK MILITARY AIRPORT NORTH OF SEVASTOPOL 

This comes after reports that Russian anti-air defenses were activated over the region. There are also unconfirmed reports circulating that a Ukrainian drone may have been engaged by Russian defenses.

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Little is confirmed at this early point, but it follows a string of blasts inside Crimea over the past week, some of which were admitted by the Kremlin to be Ukrainian “sabotage” operations. 

* * *

Russian state media has confirmed another large blaze is engulfing an ammunition depot within its territory on Thursday, with social media videos capturing the incident, following a string of prior blasts, amid growing reports Ukraine is launching ‘sabotage operations’ deep within Russian territory, particularly in Crimea over the past week.

“An ammunition depot in Russia’s Belgorod Region caught fire on Thursday, regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said, adding that no casualties had been reported,” according to TASS.

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“The district’s head ordered the residents of the Timonovo and Soloti settlements to be evacuated to a safe distance. Response teams are working on the scene, efforts are underway to establish the cause of the fire,” the governor wrote further on Telegram of ongoing emergency efforts to control the blaze. 

The area referenced merely a little over 5 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, where on the other side Russian strikes are pounding away on the major northeast city of Kharkiv. The two Russian villages have a combined population of a little over 1,000 residents. 

ABC News recounts of events in Crimea over the past week:

But in recent days, explosions have destroyed several Russian planes at an air base in Crimea, and munitions blew up Tuesday.

Ukrainian authorities have stopped short of publicly claiming responsibility, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alluded to Ukrainian attacks behind enemy lines after the most recent blasts Tuesday while Russia blamed “sabotage.”

People in the Timonova area are reportedly being told to evacuate, as the fire continued into the night hours…

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Amid speculation that US-supplied weaponry could be used for these longer-range attacks and operations Ukrainian Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov told US state-funded Voice of America this week, “We have an agreement with the US that we will not use weapons provided by the US and partners against the territory of the Russian Federation. But if we discuss de-occupying… Ukrainian land where the enemy is now, there are no such restrictions.”

The Kremlin has stated that such long-range attacks with American weaponry would mark a severe “red line” and that it would hold external powers backing Ukraine responsible. 

Meanwhile, it looks like things are continuing to heat up over Crimea, after Ukraine’s President Zelensky earlier this month vowed to “liberate” the Russian-controlled peninsula…

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END

Russia Warns UK: Air Force Ordered To Prevent Planned Spy Plane Overflight

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Tensions are at a boiling point between Russia and Britain after the UK Defense Ministry declared it plans to send a reconnaissance plane on a route that partly passes into Russian airspace and over its territory.

It seems Russia’s air force may have been given shoot-down orders, or is at least ready to confront any possible foreign aircraft, if the UK attempts such a military breach of Russian airspace. “Russia’s Defense Ministry warned Britain Tuesday against a planned spy plane flight over Russian territory, saying the country’s air force has been given orders to prevent an intrusion,” The Associated Press writes over the emerging standoff between the two countries. 

This after the UK issued an official notice to the Kremlin forewarning about the planned flight of an RC-135 spy plane. “We regard this action as a deliberate provocation,” the ministry said, issuing its own counter-warning saying that the air force has been “given the task to prevent the violation of the Russian border.”

“All possible consequences of this deliberate provocation will lie entirely with the British side,” it continued, but without specifying the location and time for the potential UK flight.

It seems in the recent past, prior to the Ukraine war and corresponding Western sanctions on Russia, such “notifications” of recon flights near Russia from the West may have been seen as more routine – akin to similar ‘Open Skies’ treaty flights – but the Ukraine conflict and crisis appears to have definitively ended such forewarnings and permission. 

Certainly the prior post-Cold War era ‘Open Skies’ agreement between the US and Russia has already collapsed, after on May 21, 2020 then President Trump announced the US would withdraw from it based on alleged Russian violations of the treaty.

The Kremlin’s resounding niyet given to the UK comes the day after an intercept incident in Russia’s far north, detailed in the Daily Mail as follows

A Russian MiG-31 fighter jet made an ‘unsafe close pass’ of an RAF spy plane yesterday, Britain’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) said, after Moscow claimed the plane had infringed on its airspace. 

The RAF spyplane was flying over the Norwegian and Barents seas on Monday on a flight path which took it close to Russian territory, but at no point did the British aircraft enter Russian sovereign airspace. 

The MoD said the RC-135 spy plane’s crew maintained radio communications with Russian civilian air traffic control throughout its flight.

As for this latest firm Russian rejection of any possible future RC-135 flyovers near its territory, the UK defense ministry did not immediately respond. It’s also unclear whether the Tuesday Kremlin statement may have actually been describing or inspired of the Monday encounter of the “unsafe close pass”. Certainly the Kremlin is now warning that such future intrusions won’t be tolerated.

end

TURKEY

Lira crashes over 18.09 to one after the Turkish central bank makes a shock rate cut despite raging hyperinflation hitting the nation

(zerohedge)

Lira Crashes After Turkish Central Bank Makes Shock Rate Cut Despite Raging Hyperinflation

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 07:37 AM

Nevermind the 80% inflation: the boss wants a rate cut and damn it, he will get a rate cut.

That’s probably what was swirling through the heads of the “dependent” Turkish central bank minutes before it shocked markets moments ago when – with the Turkish lira already at record low – it cut rates by 100bps from 14% to 13% with all 21 economists in the Bloomberg survey expecting an unchanged print.

The Monetary Policy Committee led by Erdogan puppet Sahap Kavcioglu lowered its benchmark to 13% on Thursday, after keeping it at 14% for the past seven months. And with the Turkish currency already at an all time low, it promptly plummeted another 1% lower against the dollar as it is now clear that Turkey has picked hyperinflation.

“It is important that financial conditions remain supportive to preserve the growth momentum in industrial production and the positive trend in employment in a period of increasing uncertainties regarding global growth as well as escalating geopolitical risk,” the MPC said in a statement. Here are some other highlights from the statement:

  • Updated level of policy rate is adequate under the current outlook
  • Leading indicators for 3Q point to some loss of momentum in economic activity
  • It is important that financial conditions remain supportive to preserve the growth momentum in industrial production and the positive trend in employment in a period of increasing uncertainties regarding global growth as well as escalating geopolitical risk
  • Stronger than expected contribution of tourism revenues to the current account balance continues
  • Rate of credit growth and allocation of funds for real economic activity purposes are closely monitored
  • Recent increase in spread between policy rate and the loan interest rate is considered to reduce the effectiveness of monetary transmission
  • MPC decided to further strengthen the macroprudential policy set with tools supporting the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism
  • Comprehensive review of the policy framework continues with the aim of encouraging permanent and strengthened liraization in all policy tools of the CBRT

Kavcioglu has blamed a global rally in commodity prices, partly caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. The central bank now expects inflation to reach a high of around 85% this fall, before ending the year near 60%, or 12 times its target.

As Bloomberg notes, the sudden resumption of monetary stimulus with less than a year before elections reflects the determination of Turkish authorities to follow through on authoritarian ruler Tayyip Erdogan’s promise in June that rate cuts will continue. The decision follows three weeks after the central bank revised this year’s inflation forecast higher by almost 18 percentage points.

Erdogan is intent on turbocharging growth by focusing on exports and employment as part of what he calls a “new economic model.” But risks abound as the cost-of-living crisis unfolding in Turkey poses a threat to his electoral popularity.

In place of higher rates, the central bank has rolled out “macroprudential measures” that helped slow loan growth momentum in July. It’s also relied on backdoor interventions and the introduction of state-backed accounts that shield savers from lira weakness.
The approach has allowed inflation to gallop near an annual 80% and left the lira vulnerable to a sell-off. The Turkish currency is among five of the world’s worst performers this year against the dollar, having lost around a quarter of its value.

Erdogan, long a believer that cheaper borrowing costs can slow inflation instead of pushing it higher, appointed Kavcioglu as governor of the central bank last year after ousting his three predecessors and seeking more sway over monetary policy.
An easing campaign by Turkey runs directly counter to what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy by central banks around the world since the 1980s.

And speaking of the lira, it of course plunged to a new all time low, the USDTRY soaring as high as 18.13, which is paradoxical since in the past month Turkey has been burning through all of its USD-denominated reserves to avoid a complete currency collapse… one which it just invited with its latest idiotic policy twist.

end

TURKEY/ISRAEL

This is a big surprise:  Israel and Turkey announce full normalization of ties. The big question:

what about Israel’s big gas/oil find in the Mediterranean off the coast of Haifa? Turkey claims the Cyprus part

as theirs!

(the cradle)

Israel & Turkey Announce Full Normalization Of Ties

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 11:55 PM

Via The Cradle,

On Wednesday, Israel and Turkey announced their official normalization of ties and full restoration of diplomatic relations, returning their ambassadors to Tel Aviv and Ankara. This comes after several years of tension and a gradual reconciliation over the past several months.

“It was decided to once again upgrade the level of the relations between the two countries to that of full diplomatic ties and to return ambassadors and consuls general from the two countries,” a statement from the office of interim Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said.

“Upgrading relations will contribute to deepening ties between the two peoples, expanding economic trade, and cultural ties, and strengthening regional stability,” the statement added. The move to normalize ties was also praised by Israeli President Isaac Herzog as “an important development” that will “encourage greater economic relations” between Israel and Turkey.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed the decision and stated: “Appointment of ambassadors was one of the steps for the normalization of ties. Such a positive step came from Israel as a result of these efforts, and as Turkey, we also decided to appoint an ambassador to Israel, to Tel Aviv.”

The Turkish Foreign Minister clarified, however, that the restoration of ties does not mean that his country will abandon what he referred to as its “support” for the Palestinian people.

“We are not giving up on the Palestinian cause… It is important for our messages to be conveyed directly through the ambassador (on the Palestinian issue),” Cavusoglu asserted.

The strain in relations initially began in 2010, when a Turkish-sponsored fleet of humanitarian ships bound for Gaza was attacked in the Mediterranean by the Israeli navy, resulting in the deaths of six Turkish activists.

In 2018, both governments expelled each other’s ambassadors, with Turkey criticizing Tel Aviv for its abuse of Palestinian human rights. A year later, the two states scaled back their economic cooperation. By 2021, however, economic relations had rekindled, as bilateral trade between Israel and Turkey reached around $7.7 billion.

Since then, Tel Aviv and Ankara have been involved in efforts to reach a full normalization of ties. On  July 7, the two states signed their first aviation agreement since 1951. On March 9, Herzog visited Turkey, marking the first visit by an Israeli leader to the country since 2008.

During his visit to Tel Aviv on 25 May, Cavusoglu said that a normalization of ties between Turkey and Israel would have a “positive impact” that would result in a “peaceful” solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Despite Turkey’s purported support for the Palestinians, however, Ankara has been deporting members of the Hamas resistance group from the country at Tel Aviv’s request.

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

It is all coming out now:  the CDC was wrong on just about all aspects of the COVID infections, re masks and lockdowns and spacings etc

(Jeffrey Tucker// Brownstone)

A Deeper Dive Into The CDC Reversal

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 09:40 AM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

It was a good but bizarre day when the CDC finally reversed itself fundamentally on its messaging for two-and-a-half years.

The source is the MMWR report of August 11, 2022. The title alone shows just how deeply the about-face was buried: Summary of Guidance for Minimizing the Impact of COVID-19 on Individual Persons, Communities, and Health Care Systems — United States, August 2022

The authors: “the CDC Emergency Response Team” consisting of “Greta M. Massetti, PhD; Brendan R. Jackson, MD; John T. Brooks, MD; Cria G. Perrine, PhD; Erica Reott, MPH; Aron J. Hall, DVM; Debra Lubar, PhD;; Ian T. Williams, PhD; Matthew D. Ritchey, DPT; Pragna Patel, MD; Leandris C. Liburd, PhD; Barbara E. Mahon, MD.”

It would have been fascinating to be a fly on the wall in the brainstorming sessions that led to this little treatise. The wording was chosen very carefully, not to say anything false outright, much less admit any errors of the past, but to imply that it was only possible to say these things now. “As SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, continues to circulate globally, high levels of vaccine- and infection-induced immunity and the availability of effective treatments and prevention tools have substantially reduced the risk for medically significant COVID-19 illness (severe acute illness and post–COVID-19 conditions) and associated hospitalization and death. These circumstances now allow public health efforts to minimize the individual and societal health impacts of COVID-19 by focusing on sustainable measures to further reduce medically significant illness as well as to minimize strain on the health care system, while reducing barriers to social, educational, and economic activity.

In English: everyone can pretty much go back to normal.

Focus on illness that is medically significant. Stop worrying about positive cases because nothing is going to stop them. Think about the bigger picture of overall social health. End the compulsion. Thank you. It’s only two and a half years late. 

What about mass testing?

Forget it:“All persons should seek testing for active infection when they are symptomatic or if they have a known or suspected exposure to someone with COVID-19.”Oh.

 What about the magic of track and trace?

CDC now recommends case investigation and contact tracing only in health care settings and certain high-risk congregate settings.”Oh. 

What about the unvaccinated who were so demonized throughout the last year?

 “CDC’s COVID-19 prevention recommendations no longer differentiate based on a person’s vaccination status because breakthrough infections occur, though they are generally mild, and persons who have had COVID-19 but are not vaccinated have some degree of protection against severe illness from their previous infection.”

Remember when 40% of the members of the black community in New York City who refused the jab were not allowed into restaurants, bars, libraries, museums, or theaters? Now, no one wants to talk about that. 

Also, universities, colleges, the military, and so on – which still have mandates in place – do you hear this? Everything you have done to hate on people, dehumanize people, segregate people, humiliate others as unclean, fire people and destroy lives, now stands in disrepute. Meanwhile, as of this writing, the blasted US government still will not allow unvaccinated travelers across its borders! Not one word of the CDC’s turgid treatise was untrue back in the Spring of 2020. There was always “infection-induced immunity,” though Fauci and Co. constantly pretended otherwise. It was always a terrible idea to introduce “barriers to social, educational, and economic activity.” The vaccines never promised in their authorization to stop infection and spread, even though all official statements of the CDC claimed otherwise, repeatedly and often. You might also wonder how the great reversal treats masking. On this subject, there is no backing off. After all, the Biden administration still has an appeal in process to reverse the court decision that the mask mandate was illegal all along.

At the high COVID-19 Community Level,” the CDC adds, “additional recommendations focus on all persons wearing masks indoors in public and further increasing protection to populations at high risk.”

The problem from the beginning was that there never was an exit strategy from the crazy lockdown/mandate idea. It was never the case that they would magically cause the bug to go away. The excuse that we would lock down in wait for a vaccine never made any sense. People surely knew early on of the social, economic, and cultural devastation that would ensue. If they did not, they never should have been anywhere near the control switches of public health. Badges and bureaucracies do not terrify a virus destined to spread to the whole planet. And not one person with even the most casual passing knowledge of coronaviruses could have sincerely believed that a vaccine would magically appear to achieve something never before achieved in the whole history of medicine. 

When the Great Barrington Declaration appeared on October 4, 2020, it caused a global frenzy of fury not because it said anything new. It was merely a pithy restatement of basic public-health principles, which pretty much instantly became verboten on March 16, 2020, when Fauci/Birx announced their grand scheme. The GBD generated mania because the existing praxis was based on preposterously unproven claims that demanded that billions of people buy into complete nonsense. Sadly many did simply because it seemed hard to believe that all world regimes but a handful would push such a damaging policy if it was utterly unworkable. When something like that happens – and there never was the hope that it could work – the regime imperative becomes censorship and shaming of dissent. It’s the only way to hold the great lie together. So finally, nearly two years later the CDC has embraced the Great Barrington Declaration rather than doing a “quick and devastating takedown” as Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci called for the day after its release.

 No, they had to try out their new theory on the rest of us. It did not work, obviously. For the authors of the GBD, they knew from the time they penned the document that it was a matter of time before they were vindicated. They never doubted it. Dr. Rajeev Venkayya is widely credited with coming up with the idea of lockdowns while he was working for the Bush administration back in 2005. He had no training at all in public health or epidemiology. He later marveled that it fell to him, a young desk-dwelling White House bureaucrat, to “invent pandemic planning.” Maybe he should have demurred that day that George W. Bush asked him to lead the charge to inaugurate a new war on pathogens. Somehow his views gained converts, among whom was Bill Gates, the foundation for whom he worked for years. The rest is history. In April 2020, Venkayya called me to explain why I needed to stop attacking lockdowns. He said that the planners need a chance to make their scheme work. On the phone, I asked the same question over and over: where does the virus go? The first two times, he did not respond. I pressed and pressed. Finally he said there will be a vaccine. It’s hard to appreciate just how preposterous that sounded at the time, and I said something along those lines: it would be a medical miracle never before seen to have a shot for a coronavirus that was sterilizing against wild type and all inevitable mutations, and to do it in a reasonable time so that society and economy had not completely fallen apart. The whole approach was clearly milliennarian at best and utter madness at worst. And here I was, in the thick of global lockdowns, on the phone with the architect of the whole idea, an idea that had reduced billions to servitude, wrecked schools and churches, and sent communities and countries into complete upheaval. I wondered at the time what it would be like to be Dr. Venkayya that day. After all this ended in disaster, would he take responsibility? His LinkedIn profile today says otherwise: he is prepared to “tackle current and future epidemic & pandemic threats as the CEO of Aerium Therapeutics.”There never was an exit strategy from lockdowns and mandates but they eventually did find an exit nonetheless. It came in the form of a heavily footnoted and opaquely written reversal, published by the main bureaucracy responsible for the disaster. It amounts to a repudiation without saying so. And thus does the great experiment in mass compulsion come to an intellectual end. If only the carnage could be cleaned up by another posting on the CDC’s website. By the way, the Biden administration has extended the declaration of Covid emergency. And my unvaccinated friends in the UK still can’t board a plane to come for a visit. All of this gives rise to the great question: what was the point? Maybe it was all a mistake and now it is gone forever but that’s unlikely. The intellectuals who pushed this project on the world have a view of the world that is fundamentally ill-liberal. They differ among themselves on the details but the general approach is technocratic central planning rooted in deep suspicion of basic tenets of freedom. How many people on the planet have now been acculturated to top-down control, socialized to live in fear, accept whatever comes down from above, never to question an edict, and expect to live in a world of rolling man-made disasters? And was that the point after all, to cultivate low expectations for life on earth and relinquish the soul’s desire for a full and free life? 

Dr Paul Alexander..

“CDC admits it failed to meet expectations in COVID response” (& monkeypox response); I say NO, it’s not that simple, they did not make ‘mistakes’, they are purely stupid, inept, corrupt, & deficient!

Fauci & Birx led overthrow of Trump, subversively, using inept corrupted science with the CDC, FDA, NIH & their leaders, with the deepstate bureaucrats who think they own America & POTUS is powerless

Dr. Paul Alexander
Aug 17

CDC admits it failed to meet expectations in COVID response

It is not that they made mistakes or did not meet expectations, it is because they had and have no clue what they are talking about! They are stupid idiots and all should be fired! It is time to take the CDC down to the studs, fire most, a bunch of stupid moronic health officials! Corrupted and CDC worked with NIH and FDA to harm Trump, to undercut his pandemic response, Fauci & Birx led.

Open in browser

CDC admitting FAILURES in COVID & MONKEYPOX response? take a look at the ever-changing COVID guidance, across time; hhhhmm, I think the CDC is in trouble & trying to backtrack; we DON’T let them!

JAIL time! I told you that Redfield said it was purely made up! never on science, MADE up! so the CDC has come around now? We have told them for 2 years, so again, money fine and jail time!

Dr. Paul Alexander
Aug 18

First, it’s the vaccine, stupid, NOT the virus, that is causing the infectious variants!

It is time to tear CDC down to the frame and rebuild, it is a complete failure!

SOURCE:

CDC admits it failed to meet expectations in COVID response

It is not that they made mistakes or did not meet expectations, it is because they had and have no clue what they are talking about! They are stupid idiots and all should be fired! It is time to take the CDC down to the studs, fire most, a bunch of stupid moronic health officials! Corrupted and CDC worked with NIH and FDA to harm Trump, to undercut his pandemic response, Fauci & Birx led.

This is why I pointed out to them in May and June and July 2020 to fix their fraud corrupted inaccurate guidance, they, with Fauci moved to fire me!

Notice where the CDC stated clearly that the mRNA and spike protein etc. does not stay in the body long-term, well, we told them over a year now and now it just disappears from their site. Poof, it’s gone.

July 2021:

July 2022:

Now July 23rd 2022:

Vaccine Impact/

White House Orders 171 Million Doses of “New” Boosters for the Pro-Vaxxers Still Alive as COVID-19 Vaccine Market Dwindles

August 17, 2022 2:49 pm

The pharma-funded corporate media announced yesterday that the White House has ordered 171 million “new” doses of COVID-19 vaccine booster shots that should be available for the COVID-19 pro-vaccine members of the American public soon who are still alive after receiving previous COVID-19 shots. The problem is that those who want COVID-19 vaccines are a dwindling market, partly because millions of people in the U.S. have now been crippled or have died after taking the vaccines for the past 20 months, according to the CDC and FDA’s own statistics in the Vaccine Adverse Events Recording System (VAERS). There are more deaths and injuries following emergency-use authorized experimental COVID-19 vaccines in 20 months than have been recorded in VAERS for the previous 30 years following all FDA-approved vaccines. That’s not a very good repeat business model, when so many of your patients are dying and becoming crippled. And it is estimated that only 1% of all vaccine injuries and deaths are reported to VAERS, which would put the number of Americans injured by a COVID-19 vaccine at around 138 million, with around 3 million deaths. The ABC report acknowledged that this is a dwindling market: “… demand for boosters has dropped with each campaign for people to get another shot. About 108 million people have received their first booster shot, for example.” According to the CDC’s “COVID Data Tracker,” 261,981,618 people have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, 107,872,738 people have received a first booster, and only 35,200,364 have received a second booster. This is a diminishing market, and I am quite sure that the majority of the 171 million “new” doses will probably never be used. So why would Big Pharma continue with a product that is killing and injuring so many people, and significantly reducing their market among the pro-vaxxers? The answer, which should be obvious to all by now, at least for those who have refused the COVID-19 “vaccines” and can still think for themselves, is that this is part of a global plan to “save the Earth” from climate change. Along with reducing the world’s population is a plan that is currently in place, and can especially be seen in Holland right now, to dramatically reduce the world food production as well. Bill Gates is the Billionaire Globalist who has been pushing this agenda for decades now, and a report published in ZeroHedge News today also identifies Bill Gates as the primary influence behind the “Inflation Reduction Act” that was just recently put into law.

Read More…


7th Formerly Healthy Young Canadian Doctor to Die Within a 2-Week Period: 26-Year-Old Neurosurgeon

August 17, 2022 5:52 pm

The top-read article on Health Impact News every day for the past 18 days, is the article about 6 Canadian doctors, all young and healthy, who died within a 2-week period, and coincides with at least one major Canadian hospital that mandated a 4th COVID booster vaccine for their employees. Jim Hoft, from Gateway Pundit, has now published the news about a 7th doctor death within that 2-week time frame, 26-year-old Dr. Ryan Buyting, a neurosurgery resident at Alberta Health Services (AHS). Again, as with the other deaths of previously young and healthy doctors, no link to the COVID-19 vaccine was mentioned by the media, but Canadian medical schools reportedly require all students and residents to be fully vaccinated. Dr. William Makis MD, cancer researcher at the University of Alberta and Nuclear Medicine Physician employed at the Cross Cancer Institute (CCI) by Alberta Health Services (AHS) said that Canadian medical schools require all students and residents to be fully vaccinated. “I’ve just been informed that Dr. Ryan Buyting, age 26, who was a promising medical student from Dalhousie and had just started Neurosurgery residency at Alberta Health Services in Edmonton, Alberta, has “died suddenly,” he wrote. “Canadian medical schools require ALL medical students and residents to be fully vaccinated (triple vaccinated) to be able to continue their education. I’ve stated before that those responsible (including Deans of Faculty of Medicine) should face criminal charges and long prison sentences,” he added.

Read More…


RNA for Moderna’s Omicron Booster Manufactured by CIA-Linked Company

August 17, 2022 6:20 pm

Since late last year, messenger RNA for Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccines, including its recently reformulated Omicron booster, has been exclusively manufactured by a little known company with significant ties to US intelligence. National Resilience was founded relatively recently, in November 2020, and describes itself as “a manufacturing and technology company dedicated to broadening access to complex medicines and protecting biopharmaceutical supply chains against disruption.”  Resilience was co-founded by Biotech venture capitalist Robert Nelsen. Nelsen was one of the earliest investors in Illumina, a California-based gene-sequencing hardware and software giant that is believed to currently dominate the field of genomics. As mentioned in a previous Unlimited Hangout investigation, Illumina is closely tied to the DARPA-equivalent of the Wellcome Trust known as Wellcome Leap, which is also focused on “futuristic” and transhumanist “medicines.” Nelsen is now chairman of National Resilience’s board, which is a “Who’s Who” of big players from the US National Security State, Big Pharma and Pharma-related “philanthropy.” Another notable board member, in discussing Resilience’s intelligence ties, is Drew Oetting. Oetting works for Cerberus Capital Management, the firm headed by Steve Feinberg who previously led the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board under the Trump administration.  Cerberus is notably the parent company of DynCorp, a controversial US national security contractor tied to numerous scandals, including scandals related to sex trafficking in conflict zones. Oetting is also part of the CIA-linked Thorn NGO ostensibly focused on tackling child trafficking that was the subject of a previous Unlimited Hangout investigation. In addition to these intelligence-linked individuals, the rest of Resilience’s board includes the former CEO of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Susan Desmond-Hellmann; former FDA Commissioner and Pfizer board member, Scott Gottlieb; two former executives at Johnson & Johnson; former president and CEO of Teva Pharmaceuticals North American branch, George Barrett; CalTech professor and board member of Alphabet (i.e. Google) and Illumina, Frances Arnold; former executive at Genentech and Merck, Patrick Yang; and Resilience CEO Rahul Singhvi.

Read More…

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

end

Vaccine injury

end

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every with today’s major stories

Michael Every…

“We Are All Watching The Beads Of Sweat Forming On The Fed’s Forehead”

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 10:40 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Hawks Of A Feather Flock Together

The RBNZ went 50bps again yesterday, taking rates up to 3.00% as expected, and saying: “it remains appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace to maintain price stability and contribute to maximum sustainable employment. Core consumer price inflation remains too high and labour resources remain scarce.” Scarce resources – as I noted yesterday. Remember those? Many don’t.

Moreover, the Reserve Bank showed no sign of backing off, adding that monetary conditions needed to continue to tighten until they are confident there is sufficient restraint on spending to bring inflation back within its 1-3% target range. Indeed, they remain “resolute in achieving the Monetary Policy Remit.” (All capitalised too!) Their forecast is now that RBNZ base rates peak around 4.1% in mid-2023, up from 3.9% before – but let’s call it 4%.

The Kiwis look to be canaries in the global monetary policy mine rather than on one of their solo failed-tightening cycles. Indeed, appalling inflation numbers in the UK –headline CPI hitting 10.1% y-o-y, seeing the press note ‘a 13% peak looks optimistic’– saw a surge in gilt yields and market expectations that BOE rates are going to have to keep moving higher, with the peak now seen at 3.75%. One more bad CPI print and that will no doubt be 4% too. So, two very different economies, and one broadly similar view on where rates may settle.

The FOMC minutes then made it three in one day. Nonetheless, there was less ‘Follow me!’ than was evident in the statement from New Zealand.

The Fed’s favorite core PCE price inflation measure was expected to decline to normal by 2024. Risks to their baseline projection for real activity were skewed to the downside. Consumer expenditures, housing activity, business investment, and manufacturing production were all seen as decelerating from the robust rates. Ebbing foreign economic outlook and a strong dollar were contributing to weaker external demand. Only the labour market was still seen as strong – even though that is a lagging indicator. Even so, the key message was that US growth below trend was fine if it helped reduce inflationary pressures.

For the hawks, inflation remained unacceptably high….[and] inflationary pressures were broad based.” Indeed, “declines in the prices of oil and some other commodities could not be relied on as providing a basis for sustained lower inflation, as these prices could quickly rebound.” Oops, for those relying on that metric – as the head of OPEC was underlining yesterday. Moreover, “sizable additional increases in residential rental expenses” were likely to drive a rebound in inflation ahead. (‘OER misses’, as I have quipped before for the rare subset of economics and Frankie Howerd fans.) Overall, “there was little evidence to date that inflation pressures were subsiding,” and inflation… “would likely stay uncomfortably high for some time.”

For doves, there was a throw-away line that “the high cost of living was an especially great burden on low- and middle-income households.” (“Oh, it’s the MEEK! Oh, I’m glad they’re getting something, because they have a hell of a time.” – for the much less rare subset of economics and Monty Python fans.) But higher mortgage costs and unemployment aren’t a burden(?)

For hawks, inflation stemming from supply bottlenecks would take “considerable time” to be resolved, and some suggested full resolution would take longer than previously assessed (**cough** ‘In Deep Ship’ **cough**). Some felt even that by itself “could not be relied on” to resolve supply-demand imbalances driving inflation. So less demand was needed too.

As such, “moving to a restrictive stance of the policy rate in the near term” was appropriate in order to build the FOMC’s credibility, and from a risk management perspective: and rates would need to be kept higher “for some time” once having achieved that target. So, ‘Higher for Longer’ as the new mantra? Whocouldanooed?

Yet for doves, the Fed also noted the need to slow the pace of rate hikes “at some point”, as the market now leans more towards a 50bps move in September than another 75bps step – and which is our Fed Watcher Philip Marey’s call too: and for November and December, so 150bps more this year.

Some members also noted “the effects of policy actions and communications were showing up more rapidly than had historically been the case, because the expeditious removal of policy accommodation and supporting communications already had led to a significant tightening of financial conditions.” I am not sure which conditions they are referring to: certainly not higher bond yields, wider credit spreads, or lower stocks. Perhaps they were long crypto?

Perhaps the key dovish phrase was that some saw “there was also a risk that the Committee could tighten the stance of policy by more than necessary to restore price stability. These participants highlighted this risk as underscoring the importance of the Committee’s data-dependent approach to judging the pace and magnitude of policy firming over coming quarters.” By contrast, the BOE knows there is going to be a recession, and is carrying on regardless. The RBNZ also seems pretty committed.

In short, we are all back to data-watching, which is where we were before: and also watching the beads of sweat forming on the Fed’s forehead (and those of the doves/rates bulls?)

One cannot help but think that there is some significance in the RBNZ, BOE, and Fed all now flocking together towards a base rate around 4% and then staying there for “some time”.

Indeed, Philip notes in ‘Lost in Translation’: “While the minutes are yet another piece of evidence that the Fed has prioritized price stability over full employment, markets are likely to remain deaf to the Fed’s repeated attempts to explain how they want to approach the current outbreak of inflation…. The same crowd that thought that inflation was transitory, is now celebrating peak inflation and the coming of an early Fed pivot. However, what they don’t seem to get is that bringing inflation back to 2% is going to require patience, from the Fed and markets.”

However, patience is for the birds, it seems.

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

NatGas Prices At 14-Year High As Traders Warn Of Winter Tightness

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 01:20 PM

The explanation for US natural gas prices at 14-year highs, in our view, are concerns that increasing domestic and European demand for the fuel will result in tighter US supplies ahead of the winter season. A lot of NatGas has been pumped to power plants this summer as cooling demand surged, sending stockpiles for the coldest months of the year below 10% of normal levels.  

Traders and research desks also focus on reopening Freeport LNG Terminal in Quintana, Texas, in October, which would boost US Gulf exports to Europe and result in even tighter US supplies. 

On Thursday morning, New York NatGas futures are up more than 2% to $9.30/mmbtu after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected injection to domestic winter reserves. Prices are steadily approaching $10/mmbtu and are currently at the highest price since 2008. 

“Natural gas supply & demand dynamics have continued to pull the market higher,” Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research wrote in a note

“Natural gas production has had a few individual days with impressive prints near record-highs, but it has been unable to sustain those numbers amid a myriad of pipeline maintenance events and outages across the country. Concurrently, low renewables (ie wind) have contributed to very strong natural gas burns within the United States. Weak coal storage inventories and an overall lack of coal power are compounding with the lackluster wind as well, leading to impressive gas burns throughout the last few months. 

“Looking ahead, Freeport LNG is expected to roar back online in October, adding another 2 Bcf/d to the mix and keeping balances tight for the winter season,” the energy firm said. 

BloombergNEF data shows domestic NatGas output has fallen 1 billion cubic feet a day since the peak at 98.7 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 6. The declines are problematic because this is the time domestic winter reserves are injected with NatGas to prepare for the US heating season just ten weeks away. 

Gary Cunningham, a director at Tradition Energy, told Bloomberg that faltering production at wells is bidding up prices: 

“You’re just sort of feeding gasoline into the fire, which drives the bulls,” Cunningham said. 

Tight supplies in the US come as Europe wrestles with a historic energy crisis due to backfiring Western sanctions on Russia. 

So the question now is if the move over $9/mmbtu is sustainable, and if so, a break over the $10 handle could suggest another leg higher, as explained by analysts at EBW AnalyticsGroup. 

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0187 UP  0.0009 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 134.95   DOWN 0.024 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2068 UP   0.0023

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 14.98 POINTS OR .46%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 158.54 PTS OR 0.80% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.32%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 158.54 PTS OR  0.80% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.98 PTS  OR 0.96% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.32% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 280.63 OR 0.96%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1772.00

silver:$19.88

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 106.41 DOWN 3  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.16% UP 4  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.188% DOWN 0    AND 7/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.25%// UP 3   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.33  UP 3   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.099% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0137 DOWN  .0031   or 31 basis points

USA/Japan: 135.11 UP 0.157  OR YEN DOWN 16  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2003  DOWN .0042 OR 42 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0016 OR 16 BASIS pts  to 1.2920

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.7861  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.7951

TURKISH LIRA:  18.08  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.188

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  2.849% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.114 DOWN 3  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 106.98 UP 5 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP  23.81 PTS OR  0.32%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 69.81 POINTS OR 0.51%

Paris CAC CLOSED  UP 25.87 PTS OR 0.40% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 10.800 OR 0.13%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 206.56 PTS OR  0.92%

WTI Oil price 86.71  12: EST

Brent Oil:  92.50 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  59.66  UP 1  AND 10/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.0999

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0095 DOWN .0082     OR  82 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1939 UP .01059  or  106 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 135.88  UP .935//YEN DOWN 94 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2932 UP 0.0013  (CDN dollar, DOWN  13   basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 90.65

Brent OIL:  96.54

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.879 UP 2 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.1437  UP 1  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.05

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  59,53  UP 1 AND   21/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 18.72 PTS OR 0.06 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 35.13 PTS OR 0.26%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.56 DOWN 0.34 PTS (1.71)%

GLD: $164,35 DOWN $0.43 OR 0.26%

SLV/ $18.04 DOWN 21 CENTS OR 1.15%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Stumble, Memes Mauled In Sleepy Session Fit For Sandman

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 04:06 PM

If one had to describe today’s session with one word it would be “sleepy.”

After yesterday’s early selloff, driven by sharply higher rates, the 2pm FOMC failed to provide traders any clear direction on what the Fed plans to do, and an early dovish read of the minutes fizzled quickly, ending any upward momentum. Fast forward to today when stocks traded in a narrow range bound by the pre-FOMC lows and post-FOMC highs (yet one which nonetheless makes the Fed nervous as it is far too high to constrict financial conditions).

While most sectors were in the green – though energy led the pack thanks to a surge in oil prices…

…  volumes were dismal (to be expected with more than half of traders out on vacation) and liquidity was non-existent …

… and what little action there was, was in “meme stonks” where recent insolvent, multi-bagging superstars like BBBY crumbled after even the apes were forced to accept that it’s just a matter of time before “papa Cohen” and his diamondhands dump their BBBY stake (and who knows what else).

The news sent BBBY stock plunging more than 20% and almost half off yesterday’s $30 high….

… AMC hit ten-day lows…

… and GME was also hammered…

… as the broader basement trader space got deflated now that the Fed has made it clear it will likely hike another 75bps in September.

And speaking of September rate hikes, after odds of a 75bps hike post yesterday’s FOMC from 70% to 40%, we got the usual confusion today when former uber-hawk Esther George came out dovish today while recent uber-dove Bullard James Bullard said he backs a 75bps rate hike.

However, since not even the algos care about Fed forecasts any more, there was little impact on either the Euro$ market or risk assets.

The rest of today’s session was, as noted, boring: the dollar rose, rates went nowhere, the VIX crunch resumed, pushing it back below 20…

… gold went nowhere, same as bitcoin, while ETH saw a stead trickle of inflows as traders continue to expect outperformance from the token before (and after) the merge.

Crude was probably the only other interesting move besides memes, as it was finally able to rally out of its previous rut due to Wednesday’s EIA report, which showed that markets are still very tight and gasoline soared. Along with multiple stockpile draws, the report revealed that recessionary risks haven’t trickled over to crude consumption just yet as demand remains high. Bolstering gains were Xi’s comments about Chinese reopening (even though the comments appeared to reference globalization rather than the country’s Covid-zero policy, but whateves), as well as continued geopolitical risk with Bloomberg noting that talks between Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and Turkey’s President Erdogan didn’t prove fruitful, as Zelenskiy says he sees no end to the war without troop withdrawals. Finally, Goldman said that an Iran nuclear deal is actually not going to happen and will instead be an extended “stalemate”, which however won’t help the supply picture. As a result, WTI crude briefly rallied above $91 on Thursday after previously dropping to a seven-month low earlier in the week.

I) / EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC MEETING IN FULL

ii) USA DATA//

Do not read too much into the initial claims drop. The USA economy is faltering badly

(zerohedge)

Initial Claims Drop From 10 Month High As Continuing Claims Keep Rising

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 08:52 AM

After hitting the highest level since November, in the latest week, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time dipped from a downward revised 252K (was 262K originally) to 250K, well below the consensus estimate of 264K.


Source: Bloomberg

Unlike initial claims, continuing claims are also picking up also and is now at its highest in over 4 months.

One wonders if this is an actual improvement in the labor market or someone at the DOL got a tap on the shoulder, to make the weakening claims series more compatible with the relentless surge in payrolls.

Still given the mainstream push to claim there is ‘no inflation’ after last week’s 0.0% MoM CPI print, who knows what the arbiters of what is acceptable speech will allow us to claims this time..

end

More signs that the USA economy is crumbling: existing home sales crater by a huge 20% in July…affordability collapses

(zerohedge).

“We’re Witnessing A Housing Recession”: Existing Home Sales Crater 20% In July As Affordability Collapses

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 10:20 AM

Another month, another plunge in housing.

Hot on the heels of the latest catastrophic homebuilder sentiment print and plunging single-family starts and permits, analysts expected existing home sales to accelerate their recent decline with a 4.9% MoM drop in Julye. They were right in direction but severely wrong in magnitude as existing home sales tumbled tumbled 5.9% MoM in June.

That is the 6h straight month of existing home sales declines – the longest stretch since 2013 – pulling home sales down a stunning 20.2% YoY. From the NAR

“The ongoing sales decline reflects the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

“Home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers.”

The collapsing housing market means the SAAR is now below the full year pace of 2012 – one decade ago.

Interestingly, despite the broad collapse in the market, properties typically remained on the market for 14 days in July, the same as June and down from 16 days in May and 17 days in July 2021. The 14 days on market are the fewest since NAR began tracking it in May 2011. Eighty-two percent of homes sold in July 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

In other words, the market is frozen, but inventory remains at record lows!

“We’re witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building,” Yun said. “However, it’s not a recession in home prices. Inventory remains tight and prices continue to rise nationally with nearly 40% of homes still commanding the full list price.”

Finally, there is some good news – the number of homes for sale rose for the first time in three years on an annual basis to 1.31 million, up from 1.26 in June and the highest since September. At the current sales pace it would take 3.3 months to sell all the homes on the market, marking the fifth straight rise in months’ supply.

Despite hopes that prices would start to roll over – helping with affordability – the median selling price rose 10.8% from a year earlier to a near-record $403,800. First-time buyers accounted for 29% of US sales last month, up from 30% in May.

end

The U.S. economy is still sluggish — leading indicators fall for fifth month in a row

Aug. 18, 2022 at 10:21 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

U.S. leading economic index drops 0.4% in July and highlights risk of recession

The numbers: The U.S. leading index fell by 0.4% in July to mark the fifth decline in a row, reflecting a slowdown in the economy tied to rising interest rates and pessimism among consumers.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.5% decline.

The LEI is a gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse. The report is published by the Conference Board, a private nonprofit organization.

Big picture: The U.S. economy appeared to sputter in the spring and early summer, but lately it’s shown more resilience. Employment surged in July, for instance, and the rate of layoffs has leveled off after a sharp uptick in the spring.

Consumers are still spending plenty of money, what’s more, and businesses continue to produce lots of goods and services.

There are storm clouds on the horizon, however.

The Federal Reserve is sharply raising interest rates to try to squelch the highest inflation in almost 40 years, and higher rates tend to slow the economy.

Some economists worry a recession could take place next year unless inflation relents and the Fed can take its foot off the brake.

“The US LEI declined for a fifth consecutive month in July, suggesting recession risks are rising in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the board.

Key details: The leading economic index fell in July largely because of declining stock prices, a slowdown in home building, higher jobless claims, falling consumer confidence and reduced orders for manufactured goods.

Already in August stocks have rebounded, though, and jobless claims have fallen.

The July report was not all negative, either. A measure of current economic condition rose 0.3% while the so-called lagging index — a look of sorts in the rearview mirror — moved up 0.4%.

-END-

iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues/

Tomato shortages emerge due to drought stricken California.  Ketchup prices soar. California accounts for 25% of the world’s tomato output

(zerohedge)

Tomato Shortage Emerges In Drought-Stricken Californian As Ketchup Prices Soar

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 07:20 PM

Days ago, we said the next food insecurity problem that may impact Americans’ eating habits could be an emerging potato shortage. Now there appears to be another issue: Tomatoes are getting squeezed, and risks of a ketchup shortage rise as a severe drought batter California’s farmland.

California accounts for a quarter of the world’s tomato output. The worst drought in 1,200 years has forced farmers to abandon fields as crops turn to dust amid a water crisis. 

“We desperately need rain … and are getting to a point where we don’t have inventory left to keep fulfilling the market demand,” Mike Montna, head of the California Tomato Growers Association, told Bloomberg.

“It’s real tough to grow a tomato crop right now,” Montna continued, adding, “on one side you have the drought impacting costs because you don’t have enough water to grow all your acres, and then you have the farm inflation side of it with fuel and fertilizer costs shooting up.” 

The lack of water and the soaring cost of farming appears to be a ‘perfect storm’ in the making that could result in a shortage of all sorts of tomato-based products, including ketchup, salsa, and spaghetti sauce. 

Rick Blankenship, Chairman of the Board at California Tomato Research Institute, warned crop yields are “way off this year … and coupled with drought, we’ve had high temperatures and that in itself creates an issue where the tomatoes are so hot that they just don’t size properly — so you have a lot of tomatoes on a plant, but they are smaller.” 

Bloomberg said the value for a ton of tomatoes reached an all-time high this year of $105 due to higher input prices, such as diesel and fertilizer, compounded with the drought. 

“You would think that it was a home run for growers, but in reality the input costs have gone up so much that the potential profit was all gobbled up,” Blankenship said.

R. Greg Pruett, sales and energy manager for Ingomar Packing Co., one of the world’s largest tomato processors, said not all customers will get their processed products. The company sells to some of the largest food brands. He said inventories are plunging to critically low levels. 

“If you are looking for a significant amount of tomato paste and you haven’t already contracted it then you aren’t going to get it no matter what the price is,” Pruett said, adding, “it’s just not there.”

Market research firm IRI shows the price of tomato sauce in the last four weeks ended July 10 surged 17% from a year ago, while ketchup jumped 23%.

Besides tomatoes, french fries could be in short supply as the potato crop has suffered from a heatwave. And worse, most of the US beer imports come from northern Mexico, where the region is running out of water

Ketchup, french fries, and beer could soon be in short supply or experience price hikes due to tightening supply. 

END

The Feds cut water deliveries to Arizona and Nevada and that may impact food production

(zerohedge)

Feds Cut Water Deliveries To Arizona And Nevada, May Impact Food Production

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 10:40 PM

Arizona and Nevada face deeper cuts on the amount of water they can draw from the drought-stricken Colorado River, the Interior Department’s Bureau of Reclamation said Tuesday. 

The agency responsible for managing water and power in the western US said “urgent action” is needed as water levels in the Colorado River’s two largest reservoirs — Lake Mead and Lake Powell — continue to drop. Under the new conservation efforts, 21% of Arizona’s annual water allocation from the river system will be reduced in 2023. 

Nevada will see 8% of water deliveries reduced, and Mexico’s share will be cut by 7%. California will be spared from the new measures that begin next year. 

The reductions could be the beginning of a water crisis for the 40 million Americans in seven states (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Arizona, California, and Nevada) that heavily rely on the river for freshwater and power. 

The move comes as the western US faces the worst megadrought in 1,200 years that has decreased levels in Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the US, to lows not seen in eight decades

Lake Powell, meanwhile, could face hydropower production disruptions as soon as next year, The Guardian said. 

“Every sector in every state has a responsibility to ensure that water is used with maximum efficiency. To avoid a catastrophic collapse of the Colorado river system and a future of uncertainty and conflict, water use in the basin must be reduced,” said Tanya Trujillo, assistant secretary of the Interior Department for water and science. 

In Arizona, the cuts will impact water flow to farmland responsible for 90% of US lettuce production. 

Farmers in Arizona, who provide more than 90% of the US’s leafy greens each November through March, have already borne the brunt of prior cuts, along with those who make a living from the state’s $23.3 billion agriculture industry. Pinal County, between Phoenix and Tucson, is likely to be hit especially hard since the area known for cotton and livestock has already seen about half its farmland go idle due to prior water reductions. – Bloomberg 

Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton summed up the situation along the Colorado River: 

“The system is approaching a tipping point and without action, we can’t protect the system and the millions of Americans who rely on this critical resource.” 

Readers may recall that we noted taps in northern Mexico have run dry for several months as a water crisis looms.

end

SWAMP STORIES

Lindsey Graham Calls For Release Of Trump Affidavit: ‘We’re Flying Blind’

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 – 07:45 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Tuesday called for the release of the FBI affidavit that was used to justify the raid of former President Donald Trump’s Florida home.

We need the affidavit, show your cards, Merrick Garland can’t have it both ways, he can’t give us the inventory of the warrant without telling us why it was necessary … without the affidavit, we’re flying blind in the dark,” Graham said, adding, “The American people are going through too much pain, too much heartache on this endless effort to destroy Donald Trump.”

Graham’s comment came a day after Department of Justice lawyers argued in court that the affidavit should be sealed, including redacted versions of the document, because it would harm the agency’s investigation.

An affidavit would provide more details about the investigation and would provide insight into why the federal government is investigating Trump, including what triggered last week’s raid on Mar-a-Lago.

So far, a U.S. magistrate judge in the case authorized the unsealing of an FBI warrant and property receipt, which showed that agents took materials there were allegedly considered top secret or classified from Trump’s home. The judge, Bruce Reinhart, who in 2008 represented individuals associated with infamous sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, scheduled a 1 p.m. Thursday hearing on whether the affidavit and other related documents should be unsealed.

But Trump on Monday accused FBI agents of taking three passports from him, suggesting that the raid went too far. Department of Justice officials confirmed Monday evening that the passports would be returned, according to a screenshot of emails posted by a Trump spokesman.

Like Graham, Trump on Truth Social called on the federal government to release the affidavit. Judicial Watch, media outlets, the Florida Center for Governmental Accountability, and other groups have filed motions to unseal the affidavit and other related documents.

Read more here…

end

‘A Clear And Powerful Public Interest’: Judge Urged To Unseal FBI Mar-A-Lago Raid Affidavit

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 12:20 PM

Several media organizations have urged a Florida judge to release most of an FBI affidavit which was used to justify the DOJ’s search warrant for last week’s raid on former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence.

According to a filing by the group, which includes the New York Times, AP and CNN, the public has a “clear and powerful interest” in what led to the unprecedented action by the DOJ against the sitting president’s top political opponent.

While the group says that the document should be released “with only those redactions that are necessary to protect a compelling interest articulated by the government,” the Justice Department says that such a redacted version of the affidavit would leave the document so devoid of content that it wouldn’t provide any insight.

The government has given “little explanation as to how release would harm the ongoing investigation” even though many details of the probe are already public, the group said in the filing in federal court in West Palm Beach, where US District Judge Bruce Reinhart will hold a hearing on the matter Thursday.

The affidavit provides the basis on which the judge authorized the search of Trump’s estate. The dispute over its release is the latest fallout from the Aug. 8 search, which culminated in FBI agents carting away 11 sets of classified documents in about 20 boxes. Threats against the FBI — and the judge — have jumped since then. –Bloomberg

“The secrecy surrounding the search warrant, and the affidavit that led to its issuance, has caused the nation to convulse with intrigue and harmful speculation that will only increase the longer the truth is kept from the public,” said Judicial Watch in a statement. “The heat must be replaced with light, and soon.”

Trump has also called for the document to be publicly released, though he hasn’t filed anything in court to back that up.

The request comes as Newsweek reports that the FBI raid was specifically intended to recover Trump’s personal “stash” of hidden documents – which reportedly deal with a “variety of intelligence matters of interest to the former president, the officials suggest—including material that Trump apparently thought would exonerate him of any claims of Russian collusion in 2016 or any other election-related charges.”

When Trump left the White House in January 2021, many of the normal processes of transition were not followed, especially because the president would not admit that he had lost the election or that he would be leaving office. As a result, we now know, some 42 boxes of documents were shipped to Mar-a-Lago by mistake: officials papers under U.S. law, which the National Archives is supposed to take custody of and catalog.

Over the past 18 months, the Trump camp and the Archives were engaged in a back-and-forth which resulted in the return of 15 boxes (and some additional documents). As late as June 3, when officials from the FBI and Justice visited Mar-a-Lago to serve a Grand Jury subpoena for specific documents, these negotiations were largely cordial. -Newsweek

Meanwhile, as Jack Phillips of the Epoch Times notes, a lawyer representing Trump, and a former FBI official, both expressed doubts that the affidavit used to seek an FBI search warrant for last week’s Mar-a-Lago raid will be unsealed by a judge on Thursday.

I don’t think anybody wants to unseal this thing inside the government,” Chris Swecker, a former assistant director of the FBI, told Fox News on Wednesday, adding that he doubts “very seriously you’re going to see this unsealed tomorrow.”

The former official was making reference to a hearing that was scheduled by U.S. Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart for Thursday about whether the affidavit should be unsealed. The Department of Justice on Monday filed court papers arguing that it should not because releasing it to the public will damage their investigation.

But former Trump and other Republicans argue it should be released because it would show why the FBI took the unprecedented and extraordinary step of raiding the home of a former president and possible 2024 candidate.

Revealing the affidavit, they argue, would provide more insight into what the Department of Justice is trying to investigate and lay out reasons for why the raid was carried out. On Aug. 12, Reinhart issued an order to unseal the FBI search warrant and property receipt.

Lawyer’s Response

A lawyer for Trump, Alina Habba, echoed Swecker’s assertion that it appears unlikely the judge will unseal the affidavit on Thursday during a recent Fox News interview.

“Judge Reinhart is the same magistrate judge that recused himself from my Hillary [Clinton] case about a month ago. He is definitely not going to be a friendly judge necessarily. I would say it was highly unlikely,” Habba said, noting that the “DOJ is already saying that they do not want us to see what was in the affidavit.”

“Usually, that’s to protect witnesses and other things that have been cooperating with the justice system. So while I would love to see it and understand why you would ask for a raid with a cooperating president, do I believe that this judge is going to reveal it? No, I do not,” she said.

The Justice Department and the FBI have remained mostly silent regarding the raid, with Attorney General Merrick Garland issuing a statement during a news conference on Aug. 11. Garland said he personally authorized the warrant for the FBI raid but provided little to no insight about why it was carried out or what was taken from Trump’s home.

In statements posted on Truth Social, Trump wrote that FBI agents took three of his passports and demanded their return. A spokesperson for the former president confirmed on social media this week that the travel documents were handed back.

end

Late in the day:

Judge Orders DOJ To Unseal Portions Of FBI Trump Raid Affidavit

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 02:57 PM

The Trump-hating federal judge who signed off on the FBI warrant to raid Mar-a-Lago has ordered the DOJ to unseal portions of the underlying affidavit, after several media outlets and activist groups made the case that it was in the public interest to see it.

“I’m not prepared to find that the affidavit should be fully sealed,” said Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart following a hearing in which a top government lawyer argued that releasing the document could “severely compromise” an ongoing investigation that’s in its “early stages,” adding that a line-by-line redaction of the document was unrealistic.

On my initial careful review … there are portions of it that can be unsealed.”

Reinhart said he would “give the government a full and fair opportunity” to make redactions, according to Bloomberg, setting a deadline of next Thursday – after which he will review it and release it if he agrees with the redactions.

*  *  *

END

LATE THIS AFTERNOON:

Trump Spox Calls For ‘No Redactions’ Of FBI Trump Raid Affidavit After Judge Orders DOJ To Unseal ‘Portions’

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 02:57 PM

Update (1550ET): In response to Judge Reinhart ordering the DOJ to release a redacted version of the Trump raid affidavit, Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich called for no redactions,” citing “Democrats’ penchant for using redactions to hide government corruption.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1560352184956583940&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fclear-and-powerful-public-interest-judge-urged-unseal-fbi-mar-lago-raid-affidavit&sessionId=a46e659cdc8c8b82fe3cb903714d8a022a2cc0b1&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=31f0cdc1eaa0f%3A1660602114609&width=550px

end

This may be problematic for Trump:  Weisselberg pleads guilty to tax avoidance and will testify against the Trump organization and quite possibly Trump

(zerohedge)

Trump CFO Allen Weisselberg Pleads Guilty To Tax Scheme, Will Testify Against Trump Org

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 – 11:01 AM

Trump Org CFO Allen Weisselberg has pleaded guilty to 15 felonies – admitting that he conspired with other Trump Organization executives to carry out a tax-avoidance scheme connected to lavish corporate benefits.

As part of the deal, he has agreed to testify against the Trump Organization – however he has refused to implicate Donald Trump in any wrongdoing.

Weisselberg is expected to receive a five-month jail term, however time credited for good behavior he’s likely to serve around 100 days, according to the NY Times.

As Bloomberg notes, “Trump hasn’t been charged in the case and, according to a person familiar with the matter, Weisselberg won’t implicate his boss as part of his plea. But because Weisselberg’s deal requires him to testify against his employer, an admission of criminal conduct could mean trouble for the Trump Organization, experts say.”

Developing…

King report

The King Report August 18, 2022 Issue 6825Independent View of the News
US July Retail Sales are flat m/m; +0.1% was expected; June was revised to 0.8% from 1.0%
Ex-Autos Sales +0.4%; -0.1% was consensus; June was revised to 0.9% from 1.0%
Ex-Autos & Gas Sales are 0.7%; 0.4% was expected.
 
@charliebilello: In nominal terms, US Retail Sales are still strong, hitting another all-time high in July, up 3.6% over the last 6 months. But after adjusting for inflation, the story changes. Real Retail Sales peaked in April 2021 & are down 1.1% over the last 6 months. Charting via @ycharts
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1559916856307236867
 
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Latest estimate: 1.6 percent — August 17, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.6 percent on August 17, down from 1.8 percent on August 16After this morning’s retail sales report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 2.7 percent to 2.4 percent… https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
 
@GoldTelegraph_: The Bank of Japan now owns 63% of all locally listed ETF assets.  The central bank also owns half the share of Japanese government bond…  What can possibly go wrong
 
ESUs traded in a small range, mostly in negative territory, from the Asian open until they rallied modestly during the final hour of Nikkei trading.  After China closed an hour later, ESUs commenced a decline that persisted until the NYSE open.
 
Conditioned buying for and on the NYSE open generated a rally that ended at 10:06 ET.  ESUs and stocks then rolled over.  USUs had a similar pattern except they were positive during Asian trading.
 
After the early US rally, ESUs and stocks retreated and hit daily lows at 11:15 ET.  The rally for the European close was modest and ended at 11:31 ET.  ESUs and stocks then slid to new lows.  Techs and Fangs led the decline.  It looked like the usual suspects were too long in trading sardines.  At 11:43 ET, the NY Fang+ Index was -2.2%. 
 
A Noon Balloon developed.  It was time to manipulate ESUs higher to game the 14:15 ET VIX Fix settlement for August options. ESUs rallied 23 handles by 12:38 ET.  They then went inert as traders awaited the FOMC Minutes at 14:00 ET and the VIX Fix at 14:15 ET. 
 
The FOMC Minutes from July 27Many officials saw risk Fed could tighten more than necessaryFed official saw a slower pace of rate hikes at some point”Bulk” of effects from higher rates have yet to be feltOfficials played down lower commodity prices cooling inflationOfficials anticipate ongoing rate hikesOfficials saw risk if public question Fed’s inflation resolveParticipants underlined that a decrease in demand would be critical in lowering inflation 
Fed sees interest rate hikes continuing until inflation eases substantially, minutes show
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/17/fed-minutes-july-2022-.html
 
@BP_Rising: Fed minutes intended to create confusion. Powell clearly playing politics for elections. Otherwise, why mixed hawkish message with tidbit on possibly slowing hikes at some point. Sept balance sheet runoff is supposed to accelerate. In 00/08 bubbles indices tanked after Fed pivot.
     Fed using confusion tactics in Minutes… Choosing not to portray aggressiveness/decisiveness is a dangerous game. Policy error to not act Volcker firm. Political game and deliberate to enable baggies via puzzlement. They know how big retail participation. Playing them.
 
ESUs jumped 22 handles on the release of FOMC Minutes and the scheme to game the VIX Fix.  ESUs then vacillated in a range of 17 handles ahead of the VIX Fix.  ESUs jumped 12 handles from 14:14 ET to 14:15 ET.  This is blatant manipulation that the SEC and regulators always ignore.
 
By 14:23 ET, ESU sank 17 handles.  Yesterday’s King Report: If stocks are strong into the 14:15 ET VIX Fix, which is the settlement price for August VIX options, be alert for a reversal thereafter.
 
A rally commenced at 14:26 ET, led by Fangs, because Street pundits were almost unanimous in averring that the Fed Minutes were dovish.  On Wall Street, perception is reality – until reality intervenes.  The ESU rally ended at 14:38 ET.  By 15:00 ET, ESUs had fallen 18 handles.  The last-hour manipulation commenced on schedule.  Alas, the rally ended quickly; ESUs sank 29 handles by 15:13 ET.  ESUs and stocks then traded in a tight range into the close.
 
Energy commodities rallied, due to an unexpected decline in EIA inventories, while precious metals and other commodities declined moderately.  The EIA reports the US SPR is at its lowest level since 3/1985.
 
US Crude Oil Inventories Actual: -7056k vs 5457k Previous; Est 800k
US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories Actual: 192k VS 723k Previous
US Gasoline Inventories Actual: -4642k vs -4978k Previous; Est -1000k
US Distillate Inventory Actual: 766k vs 2166k Previous; Est 1000k
 
@GasBuddyGuy: US oil exports last week were 35 million barrels. Lotsa oil heading out of the country
 
Bill Gates and the Secret Push to Save Biden’s Climate Bill – The billionaire philanthropist was among those lobbying Joe Manchin, starting before Biden took the White House.
    Gates started wooing Manchin and other senators who might prove pivotal for clean-energy policy in 2019 over a meal in Washington DC. “My dialogue with Joe has been going on for quite a while,” Gates said. “Almost everyone on the energy committee” — of which Manchin was then the senior-most Democrat — “came over and spent a few hours with me over dinner.”…
    This is no hypothetical for Gates. His investments through Breakthrough Energy, the Gates organization that does climate work, has sunk at least tens of millions into green cement startups such as Ecocem, Chement and Brimstone. None have yet reached commercial scale. He saw the bankruptcy filing of a battery startup he backed, Aquion, that might have had a fighting chance if energy-storage tax credits were available…
    On July 7, Manchin was spotted at the Sun Valley media conference that draws power brokers to Idaho each year. Gates also attended and met with the senator again. “We had a talk about what was missing, what needed to be done,” Gates recalled. “And then after that it was a lot of phone calls.”…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-16/how-bill-gates-lobbied-to-save-the-climate-tax-bill-biden-just-signed
 
@PhilipWegmann: Bill Gates secretly lobbied Joe Manchin to get on board, and Joe Biden says the bill he signed into law is evidence that “the American people won, and the special interests lost.”
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Afternoon rally after morning tumble – the same old, same old
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds declined sharply
The NY Fang+ Index declined again; the SOX (semiconductor) Index sank 2.48%
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What are SPY August options volume telling us?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: DownLast Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4276.43
Previous session High/Low4302.18; 4253.08
 
44 Percent of Pregnant Women in Pfizer Trial Lost Their Babies; FDA and CDC Recommended Jabs for Expectant Mothers Anyway – according to internal Pfizer documents
    A batch of documents released in late July showed that 44 percent of women who were pregnant during the trial suffered miscarriages, feminist author and journalist Dr. Naomi Wolf revealed on Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast. Wolf has been spearheading research and analysis of the Pfizer documents through her website Daily Clout…  https://amgreatness.com/2022/08/16/report-44-percent-of-pregnant-women-in-pfizer-trial-lost-their-babies-fda-and-cdc-recommended-jabs-for-expectant-mothers-anyway/
 
@EvaVlaar: Well, that sure would explain the plummeting birth rates we’re seeing everywhere. Or are we still supposed to believe that has nothing to do with it and we haven’t been subjected to one of the largest crimes against humanity in history?
 
Today – The key will be SPY August options.  Retail and other traders bought beaucoup SPY August calls in the previous few sessions.  Will they be looking to liquidate now?  Or will someone try to juice ESUs to force SPY August calls higher?  As we noted in recent missives, when there have been strong rallies into expiry week and retail has been active, expiry week tends to be strong early and soft late. 
 
SPY closed at 426.64.  SPY August 430 call volume was 107,932 on Tuesday; it hit 200,000 yesterday.  Yesterday, 106,700 SPY August 427 calls traded, and 103,000 August SPY 428 calls traded.
 
SPY August 425 puts traded 124,404 on Tuesday; 170,300 traded yesterday.  SPY 425-430 is an even more important threshold now.  PS – The S&P 500 Index is having difficulty when it hits 4300.
 
The NY Fang+ Index declines for the previous two sessions is concerning for bulls.  Trading sardines usually lead the expiry manipulation.
 
Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 264k, Continuing Claims 1.45m; Aug Phil Fed Business Outlook -5.0; July Existing Home Sales 4.87m; July LEI -0.5%; KC Fed Pres George 13:20 ET, Min Fed Pres Kashkari 13:45 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3962; 100-day MA: 4102; 150-day MA: 4207; 200-day MA: 4325
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,816; 100-day MA: 32,640; 150-day MA: 33,230; 200-day MA: 33,880
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3810.39 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 4186.39 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4309.58 triggers a buy signal
 
Newsweek: FBI Sought Documents Trump Hoarded for Years, Including about Russiagate
The FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago last Monday was specifically intended to recover Donald Trump’s personal “stash” of hidden documents, two high-level U.S. intelligence officials tell Newsweek.
    To justify the unprecedented raid on a former president’s residence and protect the source who revealed the existence of Trump’s private hoard, agents went into Trump’s residence on the pretext that they were seeking all government documents, says one official who has been involved in the investigation. But the true target was this private stash, which Justice Department officials feared Donald Trump might weaponize
     It wasn’t the subject matter per se that was of interest to Justice as it was fear that Trump might “weaponize” the information, including for personal gain, the official says.
    “Trump was particularly interested in matters related to the Russia hoax and the wrong-doings of the deep state… I think he felt, and I agree, that these are facts that the American people need to know.” The official says Trump may have been planning to use them as part of a 2024 run for the presidency…
https://www.newsweek.com/fbi-sought-documents-trump-hoarded-years-including-about-russiagate-1734280
 
@seanmdav: The government leaked information about the FBI raid to reporters that it is now using in court as evidence of why the government shouldn’t have to release information about the FBI raid to reporters. Eat your heart out, Kafka.
 
In Latest Anti-Trump Operation, DOJ And Media Deploy Same Old Russiagate Tricks
The DOJ and FBI think they can execute the same game plan they did for the last six years without the public noticing. They can’t. (We mentioned this a few days ago.)
https://thefederalist.com/2022/08/17/in-latest-anti-trump-operation-doj-and-media-deploy-same-old-russiagate-tricks/
 
‘She’s desperate. It doesn’t look good’: CBS staffers turn on Norah O’Donnell after she tweeted claim FBI didn’t have Trump’s passports after Mar-a-Lago raid as her ratings continue to slump
    ‘This is an embarrassment for CBS that the face of your network can’t even make a second call to a Justice Department rep,’ one source said. ‘It’s journalism 101.’…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11118159/CBS-staffers-turn-Norah-ODonnell-tweet-insisting-FBI-didnt-Trumps-passports.html
 
Tucker Carlson: By all accounts, AG Merrick Garland was shocked to hear criticism of the raid on Mar-a-Lago… It turns out that Garland lives in such a tiny airless world of left-wing activists and sycophants that it had never occurred to him that anyone might object to siccing the FBI on Joe Biden’s political opponents… https://video.foxnews.com/v/6310973230112?intcmp=tw_fnc#sp=show-clips
 
@seanmdav: Liz Cheney’s loss (by ~37 pts) is even more lopsided than it looks because of the number of Dems who voted for her. In 2018, 16,000 Dems voted in the House primary. In 2020, nearly 25,000 voted. This year? Barely 7,500. By my count, at least 25% of Cheney’s “GOP” total came from Democrats.
 
@disclosetv: Liz Cheney says she is thinking about running for president following her resounding primary defeat (You can’t make this up!)  https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1559867535989825536
 
@greg_price11: The actual reason Liz Cheney hates Donald Trump is because she was raised with delusions of grandeur that she would one day be president and watched as Trump completely turned the GOP base away from her family’s neocon dynasty and to a future of putting America First.  
    J6 served as a convenient way for Liz Cheney to become a martyr for her father’s political legacy, which Donald Trump heroically destroyed by calling out Bush/Cheney for the Iraq War.  Liz is simply a bitter person with a major superiority complex.
     Liz Cheney’s political career began in 2014 when she announced a run for senate in Wyoming with a Facebook post geotagged to McLean, Virginia. It ended with her comparing herself to Abraham Lincoln after losing her congressional seat by over 35 points.
 
McConnell quiet on Cheney primary loss after previously expressing support for congresswoman
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mcconnell-quiet-cheney-primary-loss-after-previously-expressing-support-congresswoman
 
Babylon Bee: Producers Confirm Liz Cheney Will Not Be Back for Season 2 of Jan 6 Hearings
 
The Onion: Dick Cheney Launches Last-Minute Invasion of Wyoming to Bolster Daughter’s Reelection https://bit.ly/3pt7EVC
 
Remembering Why Americans Loathe Dick Cheney
THE WAR IN IRAQ… TORTURE… HALLIBURTON… AHMED CHALABI (WMDs)… INSTRUMENTAL IN DETAINING INNOCENTS FOR YEARS ON END… RADICAL VIEW OF EXECUTIVE POWER… UNPRINCIPLED EFFORTS TO MAXIMIZE PERSONAL POWER…
    Dick Cheney… did business with corrupt Arab autocrats, including some in countries that were enemies of the United States. Upon returning to government, he advanced a theory of the executive that is at odds with the intentions of the Founders, successfully encouraged the federal government to illegally spy on innocent Americanspassed on to the public false information about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, and became directly complicit in a regime of torture for which he should be in jail.  https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/08/remembering-why-americans-loathe-dick-cheney/244306/
 
Report finds ‘hundreds’ more Americans tried to leave Afghanistan than Biden admin claimed
https://saraacarter.com/report-finds-hundreds-more-americans-tried-to-leave-afghanistan-than-biden-admin-claimed/
 
@julie_kelly2: Federal judge in Whitmer fednapping trial places 25-minute limit on defense attorneys but not on prosecutors. Defense attorneys now arguing with Judge Robert Jonker about his order under Reeves. This was applied to 2 govt witnesses who pleaded guilty.  Defense atty Blanchard calls judge’s ruling “unconstitutional and unfair,” doesn’t get the truth… Blanchard notes govt witnesses are “so foul and done so many bad things” that defense needs lots of time to expose why they took plea deals.
 
NYT: ‘Jared Kushner’s ‘Breaking History’ Is a Soulless and Very Selective Memoir’ – Ann Coulter
Poor Trump! Through no fault of his own, he was surrounded by nitwits like this…This is the guy who ran our country for four years, while Trump sat on his bed eating cheeseburgers and Tweeting
https://anncoulter.substack.com/p/nyt-jared-kushners-breaking-history
 
@GrahamLKeegan: Just looking at the last 10,000 years there is no ‘normal’ temperature. And note how cold it is just a few centuries ago. What climate crisis? Temperature reconstruction from Greenland ice cores, Vinther et al 2009https://t.co/O3fBeCz1fr

Greg Hunter 

end

see you tomorrow 

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