AUGUST 22/GOLD DOWN $14.00 TO $1735.75//SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TO $18.99//PLATINUM UP $22.00 TO $875.10//PALLADIUM DOWN $138.35 TO $1989.30//EURO BREAKS THE PARITY BARRIER TRADING AT 0.9933 TO THE DOLLAR//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE IMPACT/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//TED BUTLER AND EGON VON GREYERZ IMPORTANT READS//EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS ESCALATE WITH ANOTHER RUSSIAN SHUTDOWN//UK PORTS HIT WITH A MASSIVE STRIKE//USA NATURAL GAS HITS 14 YR HIGHS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:
5 NOTICES FOR 500 OZ //0.0155 TONNES
total notices so far: 33,118 contracts for 3,311,800 oz (103.01 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 2 NOTICES FILED FOR 10,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 945 : for 4,725,000 oz
END
Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX
With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00
WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):
GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE
ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.718 TONNES FROM THE GLD.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.17 CENTS
AT THE SLV// ://A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.684 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1276 CONTRACTS TO 145,047. AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GOOD GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.38 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.38) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 655 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. HOWEVER WE HAD A SOME LIQUIDATION OF SPECULATOR SHORTS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: I) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A FAIR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP / // V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/(//SOME SPEC LIQUIDATION)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -105
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST:
TOTAL CONTACTS for 16 days, total 7986 contracts: 39.930 million oz OR 2.495 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (532 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 39.930 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 39.930 MILLION OZ (A LOT LESS THAN NORMAL//THE CROOKS ARE SCARED TO ISSUE MORE EFP’S)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1346 DESPITE OUR $0.38 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1211 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS AND SOME SPEC SHORT LIQUIDATIONS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2557 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 12.785 MILLION OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.
WE HAD 2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1276 CONTRACTS TO 458,131 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:–254 CONTRACTS.
.
THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $8.00//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY / WE MUST HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.
WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 98.367 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP JUMP TO LONDON OF 1500 OZ //NEW STANDING 104.164 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $8.00 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 5764 OI CONTRACTS 17,928 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4488 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 458,131
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5764 CONTRACTS WITH 1276 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4488 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6018 CONTRACTS OR 18.718 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4488) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1276): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 5764 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS// ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 1500 oz. 3) ZERO/ LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :
41,722 CONTRACTS OR 4,172,200 OZ OR 129.77 TONNES 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2607 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 129.77 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 129.77/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.66% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1241 CONTRACT OI TO 145,047 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 1211 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 1211 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1211 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1241 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1211 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2452 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.260 MILLION OZ
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.72 PTS OR 0.61% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 116.05 OR 0595% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 135.83 OR % 0.47. //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.97% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.8423//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.8445// /Oil UP TO 88.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 96.55// / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1276 CONTRACTS TO 458,131 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL OF $8.00 IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (4488 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.
WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4488 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC :4488 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4488 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED SIZED TOTAL OF 5764 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4488 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 1276 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 8.00. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST (104.164),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.164 TONNES
THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $8.00) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES // COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////// WE HAVE REGISTERED A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 17.928 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (104.164 TONNES)…
WE HAD 254 CONTRACTS ADDED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5764 CONTRACTS OR 576,400 OZ OR 17.928 TONNES
Estimated gold volume 141,740/// extremely poor/
final gold volumes/yesterday 148,081/extremely poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 22
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
33,118 notices 3,311,800 OZ 103.01 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
total dealer deposit 0
i)
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 1
i)Into Brinks: 1279.092 oz
total deposits 1279.092, oz
2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Manfra 9467.661 oz
ii) Out of Brinks:226.842 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 9694.503 oz
total: 9654.503 oz
total in tonnes: 0.30029 tonnes
Adjustments: dealer to customer //4
HSBC 201.610oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 376 contracts having LOST 455 contracts .
We had 440 notices served upon yesterday so we LOST 15 contracts or an additional 1500 oz will NOT stand for delivery in this very active month of August as they were EFP’d over to London.
Sept. lost 77 contracts to 3550 contracts.
October gained 120 contracts up to 40,087
We had 5 notice(s) filed today for 500 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 5 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 5 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,118) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (AUGUST 376 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 5 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,348,900 OZ OR 104.164 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of AUGUST.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:
No of notices filed so far (33,118) x 100 oz+ (376) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (5} x 100 oz} which equals 3,349,400 oz standing OR 104.164 TONNES in this active delivery month of August.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 104.1804 TONNES (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST ( ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)
SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 945 x 5,000 oz = 4,725,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(55) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 945 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (55) – number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 4,990,000 oz. .
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:
AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES
AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES
AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES
AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES
AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES
AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES
AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.
AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES
AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES
AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES
AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//
AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES
JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES
JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES
JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES
JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES
JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 985.83 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.
AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/
AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//
JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/
JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/
JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//
JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//
JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//
JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//
JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/
JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//
JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 483.684 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1.PETER SCHIFF
end
2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz
END
3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
A good commentary for us.
see below
Ted Butler: Why I own SLV despite its fraud and crooks
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-08-19 15:10Section: Daily Dispatches
3:14p ET Friday, August 19, 2022
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
Silver market analyst Ted Butler’s new commentary, “The Short Position in SLV,” explains why, while the huge short position in the big exchange-traded fund cheats its investors (something about which he has complained again to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission), and while the custodian of the fund’s metal, JPMorganChase, is a bunch of crooks, he still considers the fund well worth investing in, as he has done.
Butler’s commentary is headlined “The Short Position in SLV” and it’s posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:
For the sake of SLV’s investors, one may hope that Butler is right, even as those investors might do well to keep in mind a more famous episode of short selling that somehow did not involve JPMorganChase:
Having mentioned the sharp recent increase in the short position on SLV, the big silver ETF, in my last two missives to subscribers, I thought it proper to expand on the matter. As always, this is not a suggestion to buy, sell or hold shares of SLV and in the interest of full disclosure, I (my wife) still hold the same positions in SLV and PSLV, since the last time I wrote about this issue.
The important point is that SLV is the single largest repository of physical silver in the world, owned and sponsored by the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, and its custodian is JPMorgan. That combination alone is enough to set off anyone paying the slightest bit of attention to the workings of the silver market on a tangent and gets just about everyone’s juices flowing, most often in a negative manner. While the quest for a balanced view on SLV is challenging, it is also quite important, given the place SLV holds in the world of silver.
Having followed the fortunes of SLV since when it was first proposed, even before it commenced trading in April 2006, I’ve always tried to analyze it as objectively as possible. In fact, back in the day, more than 14 years ago, I helped convince the then-sponsor of SLV, Barclays Global Investors, to publicly list the serial numbers, specific weights and hallmarks for each 1000 bar held by the trust – the one true safeguard that the metal held to back the trust was actually held.
Trying to be as objective as possible about such an important security – the world’s largest holder of physical silver – the one thing that always struck me as manipulative and fraudulent was short selling in SLV. I let my feelings be known to the sponsors of the trust whenever the short position grew excessively large, both when Barclays owned the trust and when BlackRock bought and took over Barclays’ I-Shares ETF operations.
Long-time readers may recall my last tussle with BlackRock ten years ago, when my objections about short selling in SLV, prompted BlackRock to have their outside attorneys allege that I was defaming BlackRock and its CEO and President, which was not my intent. The issue blew over and the short position on SLV remained moderate until recently.
Quite ironically, in Feb 2021, at the height of the “meme stock” phenomenon, which spilled over into silver and SLV, important new amendments to the prospectus of SLV, in the form of new risk factors were published, including the admission that there might not be enough physical silver available to continue operations as had been in the past. Included were warnings to those selling short shares of SLV, which ironically, was along the same lines of what I had warned BlackRock about ten years earlier.
The recent sharp increase in the short position on SLV is important enough to have prompted me to complain, only this time not to BlackRock, but to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Last week, I sent this letter to several sections of the SEC –
August 11, 2022
Dear Sir;
I am contacting you to lodge a complaint against BlackRock, Inc. for failing to uphold its fiduciary responsibilities both to shareholders of its I-Shares Silver Trust (SLV) and in its own shares (BLK). The matter involves manipulative and fraudulent short selling in shares of SLV, an issue which I have raised with its senior management in the past (to no avail). BlackRock is the sponsor of SLV.
SLV is a particularly unique security in which shareholders are led to believe that each share is backed by a specific quantity of physical silver – one ounce of silver for every share, minus the accumulated management fee since the trust’s introduction in 2006. The problem with the short selling of shares, even if borrowed and not sold naked short, is that the shorted shares are actually “phantom” shares in which share owners are deprived of metal backing as set out in the prospectus.
What prompts my (renewed) complaint at this time is a recent and rather shocking increase in the short position of SLV, as of the most recent reporting date of July 29, 2022, in which the short position grew to 47.5 million shares, or 9% of total shares outstanding. This means that roughly one out of every 10 shares outstanding has no physical silver backing.
Compounding the problem is that in February 2021, at the height of intense retail investor interest in SLV and silver in general, a whole set of new risk factors were issued in a prospectus amendment, in which important new risk factors were laid out, including an admission that there may not be sufficient physical silver available to conduct business as usual. Included in those new risk factors was a specific warning to short sellers to be advised that short selling in SLV may be particularly risky. At the time of the prospectus revisions, the short position in SLV was 17 million shares or 2.8% of total shares outstanding.
The most recent short position in SLV is now close to three times larger in total shares shorted and more than three times larger in terms of a percent of total shares outstanding, so obviously BlackRock is ignoring its own prospectus amendments issued in Feb 2021.
Not only are the unbacked shares created by the excessive short selling of real concern to shareholders of SLV (of which my wife holds in her retirement account), but shareholders of BlackRock itself are being cheated due to the phantom shares created by the excessive short selling not paying the annual management fee on shares not officially issued, thus depriving shareholders of BLK an important source of income.
The most plausible explanation for the large increase (50% over the past month) in SLV shares shorted is that the short sellers didn’t wish to abide by the prospectus to deposit silver for newly created shares to avoid upward price pressure in the physical silver market – clearly a manipulative and fraudulent ploy.
If you need any additional information, please don’t hesitate to contact me, as this is very much a serious market crime in progress.
Theodore Butler
Whether the SEC acts on this is beyond my control, but I believe it should. Excessive short selling has no place in shares of SLV, for the reasons contained in my letter. At the same time, however, I would anticipate that the haters of SLV, of which there are many, may attempt to put this short-selling of shares into another reason to hate SLV. I suppose it’s somewhat natural for many to diss SLV, considering the competition it provides for those offering other forms of silver, as the vast majority of SLV critics just happen to market silver in other forms. Please allow me to present some counterbalancing factors.
Generally speaking, a large short position in any stock can be a very bullish market factor, unless the stock being shorted represents a company that is failing. Since SLV is a play on silver and not a company, it’s not as if silver can go out of business or cease to exist as a going concern. The most plausible reason for the recent excessive shorting in SLV revolves around the short sellers not being able or willing to buy physical silver due to the upward price pressure that would exert on silver and SLV. In fact, I can’t think of another possible reason, particularly considering the recent sharp decrease in commercial shorts positions on the COMEX.
Please remember, what set off the meme stock phenomenon of early 2021 was excessive shorting in stocks like GameStop, which came to be recognized and exploited by buyers. It seems more than reasonable that a similar recognition of what is occurring in SLV could have the same results, namely, of a rush to buy, particularly considering the recent resurgence in meme stock buying enthusiasm.
Back in early 2021, as the meme stock phenomenon was exploding, silver and SLV were considered included in the group, although that proved to be fleeting. I find it particularly ironic that the short position in SLV is now three times larger than it was back then, not something that exists in the other meme stocks to my knowledge. The irony is that excessively large short positions were the prime theme that set off the meme stock phenomenon.
Even though I recognize the low opinion in which many hold JPMorgan, the custodian of SLV, and even BlackRock itself, I am more persuaded that their importance to the financial system would work to the benefit of investors in SLV in the long run. No one could be more convinced of JPMorgan’s manipulative role in silver and gold than me and I believe I was the first to identify JPM as the big silver and gold head crook. That said, following JPM’s deferred criminal prosecution with the Justice Department, I don’t think it would dare jeopardize the agreement by further precious metals criminality. As for BlackRock, I’m still of the opinion that it would be foolish for it to risk severe reputational harm by allowing a scandal to occur on a security that represents less than a tenth of one percent (0.1%) of its total assets under management, said to be upwards of $10 trillion.
One thing to keep in mind is that if my contention is correct that interests related to JPMorgan hold as much as 50% (or more) of the 2 billion oz of silver that exists in 1000 oz bar form, it would be impossible that this is not also the case with the 500 million oz held in SLV. You can be sure that these JPMorgan interests would seek to protect their holdings in SLV, thereby strengthening those interests holding SLV not related to JPM as well.
One other thing I’m not sure I’ve mentioned previously is the possibility that shares of SLV could very well come to trade at a premium to physical silver, in the event the warnings from BlackRock in Feb 2021 ever come to pass. While I was, admittedly, skeptical at first about Izzy Friedman’s warnings of big premiums developing on Silver Eagles some 20 years ago, such premiums are now a fact. I remember hearing many opinions back in the day how it wasn’t worth paying a dollar or two more for Silver Eagles than competing coins, only to have witnessed recently that those buying Silver Eagles back then could now be getting the full price they paid for the coins back in the form of premium alone, with the appreciation in the price of silver as a bonus.
Likewise, I consider it quite possible that a premium on shares of SLV could develop to 1000 oz bars, as and when a shortage deepens. The convenience of holding silver in common stock form in a physical silver shortage could easily boost the shares of SLV and other silver ETFs over spot prices. Even the slightest premium could easily offset the cumulative annual management fee discount built into the current price. Knowing that interests associated with JPMorgan would also benefit from a premium developing in SLV and other silver ETFs is far from a negative strike against such a future occurrence.
Therefore, while I find the recent excessive increase in the short position on SLV to be fraudulent and manipulative, that’s not to say it is bearish from this point. Once a short position is established, the suppressive force it has on price has already been spent. As shorted shares are then bought back (or physical metal is deposited to offset the short sale), a counter-balancing upward price force is exerted.
The world economy and especially the political and economic situation today consists of a potpourri of lethal ingredients which will have dire consequences…
Let’s look at what this deadly potion consists of:
Debts at levels that can never be repaid – sovereign, corporate & private
Epic global bubbles in stocks, bonds & property – all about to collapse
Major geopolitical conflicts with no desire for peace – major wars likely
Energy imbalances and shortages, most self-inflicted
Food shortages leading to major famine and civil unrest
Inflation, leading to hyperinflation & global poverty
Political and economic corruption in US, Europe and most countries
No country will afford social security, medical or pension payments
So what are governments around the world doing to solve these problems?
Nothing of course.
The only thing they know is to print more money. They have never understood that a debt problem cannot be solved with more debt. All they can try to achieve is to pass the baton to the next leader so it will be his problem.
This means that all the political, economic and financial mismanagement of the past 50 years will result in a global collapse never seen before in history.
The consequences will be both dire and unpredictable since the world has no experience of this magnitude and complexity of problems.
So what are global leaders doing?
What is clear is that Western leaders will not assume any responsibility for the coming calamities.
Covid will obviously be blamed although there is a lot of evidence that it was manmade and could have been controlled with simple and cheap existing medicines. And all the lockdowns and restrictions have certainly had a bigger impact than the disease itself. Sweden for example virtually had no lockdowns or mask requirements and did not suffer more deaths than countries in total lockdown.
Special interests like Big Pharma clearly had the politicians in their hands. They had trillions of dollars to gain and nothing to lose since they are immune against any prosecution.
Anyway, it has happened and we can’t go back. The future will tell us if, as many scientists believe, the people’s immune system will have been severely weakened by the vaccines.
Secondly, the Russians will be blamed for the current global economic problems of inflation, energy shortages and decline of global trade. The fact that these problems started well before the Russian invasion of Ukraine is quickly forgotten.
WILL THE WAR DRUMS BECOME LOUDER?
Since 3600BC, governments have fought 14,000 wars against each other. As far as I am aware, there is no period in history without an important war.
At the end of the 30-year war, European nations tried to put a stop to unprovoked wars with the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia. The peace conference in Muenster involved 194 states. The start of the war in 1618 was the Protestant Bohemians rising against the Catholic Holy Roman Empire. The major opponents to the Roman Catholics were the Habsburgs supported by Sweden and the Netherlands. Spain and France were also involved in the war together with many other nations.
Interestingly, my two home countries benefitted from the peace. Sweden by virtue of being a major military power at that time gained substantial territories around the Baltic and Switzerland gained formal independence from Austria.
But the major result of the Westphalian peace treaty in 1648 was:
National self-determination
Precedent for ending wars through diplomatic congresses
Peaceful coexistence among sovereign nations
Acceptance of the principle of non-interference in the affairs of other nations if there was not a clear present danger to the aggressor.
Almost all wars in history have been between neighbouring countries. But in the 20th century the US changed that.
Without provocation and far from its borders, the US invaded Vietnam, Serbia, Iraq, Libya and Syria. So the 300 year old Westphalian principle of non-interference was properly buried by the US on multiple occasions. But not only did the US break this principle but also failed in each single one of the aforementioned conflicts.
One could of course argue that Japan broke the treaty first with the Pearl Harbour attack. But like all aggressors they claimed self defence against potential US interference in Japan’s ambitions in the Pacific.
The Russians will of course argue that they haven’t broken the Westphalian treaty since Ukraine historically has been part of Russia. In the Maidan revolution in 2014, a US inspired coup ousted the Soviet friendly Ukrainian leader and replaced him by a Western friendly leader. Since then Russia has always warned the West that it cannot accept being surrounded by an increasing number of NATO countries just like the Russian missiles on Cuba in 1962 directed against the US.
What we do know is that sadly wars are an integral part of history and as long as there are people on earth, there will be wars
The risk is that what now seems a local conflict in eastern Ukraine will become a major international conflict.
This is not a war between a small innocent country and a superpower. No this is a major conflict between the US and Russia. And since China has declared it is supporting Russia, this is a conflict between the three major super powers in the world.
And since the US has coerced the EU to join against Russia with weapons, money and sanctions, this is a conflict of major proportions.
GERMANY BITING OFF THE HAND THAT FEEDS THEM
The lack of statesmen and strong leadership in the US and EU has created an absurd situation with the EU not just biting the hand that feeds them but actually biting it off totally.
With many European countries being dependent on Russian gas, oil, cereal and fertilisers, EU’s left hand doesn’t know what the right one is doing. Not only is this a human and economic catastrophe of major proportions but one which will have major implications for Europe for a long time. Germany used to be the economic and financial engine of Europe but is now on the way to becoming a basket case. But sadly they haven’t discovered it yet.
Scholz inherited ludicrous Marxist policies from Merkel. For example to close down both nuclear energy and coal was always a recipe for disaster with no medium term viable alternatives. And her immigration policy will not only be economically ruinous for Germany but also lead to major social unrest.
The demographics of Germany is also another irreparable problem. With the lowest fertility rate in Europe combined with the highest life expectancy, Germany is entering a long term cycle of economic contraction.
Add to this that Germany has financed a major part of the Mediterranean EU countries’ woes through the Target2 transfer payment system.
As the Target2 graph shows below, the transfer payments to Italy of €596 billion, Spain €526b, to the ECB €358b, Greece €107b and Portugal €69b have been mainly financed by Germany to the extent of €1.2 trillion.
Add to that the balance sheet of the ECB which has grown more than 8X since 2004 to €8.7 trillion GRAPH and we can confidently state that the whole European Economic Community -ECB- has now become -EDC- or the Economic Debt Community.
It is clear that the old basket cases of Greece, Italy and Spain which were forced by Brussels to change leadership and to take on more debt are the immediate danger to the EU and the Eurozone.
If we just take Italy, their debt has doubled since 2000 to €2.7 trillion which at 150% of GDP means that the country is on the verge of bankruptcy.
But it is not only Italy’s debt that has surged, but even worse, the cost of financing it. Since September 2021, 10 year Italian bond yields have gone up 6X from 0.5% to 3.4%.
This is obviously more than Italy can afford!
GREECE AND ITALY SHOULD LEAVE THE EU NOW
The head of the Bundesbank Joachim Nagel has made it clear that it would be fatal for the ECB to hold borrowing costs down for ill-disciplined Eurozone states. He declared that such action would be “treacherous waters”. So Italy and Greece can no longer expect subsidised rates from the EU.
Italy needs to roll over €300 billion of debt annually plus finance its annual deficit of €100 billion, a real Sisyphean task. When Germany was the rich uncle of the EU, these debt levels were tolerated just to keep this dinosaur from falling apart. But with the coming severe German economic downturn combined with insoluble debt and structural problems in all EU countries, the inevitable collapse of the European dream is now reality as I have predicted for over 20 years.
Politicians always learn too late that political dreams and economic reality are as far apart as heaven and hell. If these politicians ever studied history, they would have learnt that all these illusions of grandeur always end not just in tears but in total collapse.
If I were in charge of Greece and Italy I would quickly default on the debt and create new Drachmas and Liras. That would give these countries a short term relative advantage rather than to sink in the general quagmire of the EU at a later stage. If they stay in the EU, Brussels will force Greece and Italy to take on more debt and impose unacceptable conditions. No country will ever repay their debt anyway or be in a position to finance it so better to run for the exit now rather than to wait for the EU’s total collapse.
So with Germany, Greece, Italy and Spain all having their problems, so does Macron in France. Having lost a working majority, he can no longer afford to be arrogant and will find it hard to reduce the French budget deficits, a condition to get German agreement for joint debt issuance.
So the EU and the Euro is now entering a final chapter. Like all political monstrosities, the fall will take a number of years. Brussels and government leaders in especially Germany and France will remain on the barricades for a long time although everything around them will fall apart. The only thing that could precipitate the fall is a debt default by the ECB when investors instead of buying the worthless debt paper will use it for fuel as they have run out of energy sources.
The only problem is of course that the debt is electronic and therefore unsuitable for burning- Hmmm.
US & GLOBAL INFLATION
Going across the pond, the US elite has never hated someone more than Trump. They tried all they could during his reign and now he is the first ex-president who is being raided by the FBI.
The US regime shot themselves in the foot with the sanctions against Russia. The Russians are still selling their energy to Germany, China, India etc and instead the suffering parties are the US, Europe and the rest of the world with high inflation and energy shortages.
With already high support for the Republicans and Trump, this raid is likely to have the opposite effect of the one desired by the regime. How many times can you shoot yourself in the foot before it really hurts?
UN AGENDA 2030 – THE (UN-)SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
This UN programme, supported by Schwab and the WEF (World Economic Forum) was always going to fail.
Starting in 2016, bureaucrats with no understanding of the real economy created this programme signed by 194 nations. There are 17 admirable but unrealistic goals like No Poverty, Zero Hunger, Good Health, Clean Energy, Climate Action etc.
Today almost half way into the programme, every single goal is hopelessly behind schedule with no chance of achieving the target.
How could anyone believe that 194 nations could jointly achieve these 17 goals when not even one single country can do it?
More about Agenda 2030 and Schwab’s attempt to take over the UN in a later article.
MARKETS
As generally is the case before major turns in markets, optimism is still high. But this autumn is likely to change all that as the realities outlined at the beginning of this article finally hit the world.
Stock markets are now extremely near finishing the correction and to resume the downtrend in earnest. It is possible that the real falls in markets will wait until September but the risk is here now and very dangerous.
What we know with certainty is that the world is facing a wealth destruction and wealth transfer of major proportions.
Most paper assets will die a relatively quick death and that includes paper money.
This will obviously include stocks, bonds, property and all derivatives. Falls of 75-95% in the next few years will not be uncommon.
As currencies finish their journey to ZERO (they are already down 97-99% since 1971) no use betting on the horse that comes last to the bottom whether it is the Dollar or the Euro.
They will all get there!
Instead, the only money which has survived in history is gold and silver and these metals will continue to maintain their purchasing power or even enhance it as all fiat money is killed off by governments and central banks by the creation of an unlimited supply.
It is so simple really but still only 0.5% of financial assets are in physical gold in spite of the metal’s golden 5,000 year record. That percentage is about to change drastically.
5.OTHER COMMODITIES: USA/
end
COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/COAL
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES
7. GOLD/ TRADING
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.8423
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8445
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 116,05 PTS OR 0.59%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 135.83 OR 0.47%
3. Europe stocks CLOSED ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 108.33/Euro FALLS TO 0.9997
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.212/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 137.00/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.234%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.516% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.39%…
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.701//
3j Gold at $1731.90 silver at: 18.88 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 87/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 58.67//
3m oil into the 91 dollar handle for WTI and 96 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 137.00DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 9582–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9582well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.974 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.217 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,12
Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE
Futures Tumble As Market Braces For Jackson Hole Hawk-ano
MONDAY, AUG 22, 2022 – 08:01 AM
The staggering “most hated rally” melt-up, which we warned back in June would steamroll shorts, and which ended up being one of the biggest summery rallies on record, is officially over…
… with BofA superstar strategist Michael Hartnett proven correct again this morning, as stocks retreated further from the bear market peak he called at 4,328 last week, with US equity futures sliding more than 1% on Monday along with stocks in Europe as a risk-off mood took hold at the start of a critical week for global markets when central bankers gather at their annual Jackson Hole symposium starting on Thursday. Both S&P and Nasdaq futures slumped more than 1.1%, with spoos down 50 points to 4,180, as 10-year Treasury yields are little changed after briefly kissing 3.0%, while two-year yields rose about six basis points, deepening the yield-curve inversion that’s seen as a harbinger of a recession. The dollar spot index climbed to a five-week high, while gold and bitcoin slumped.
In China, banks lowered the one-year and five-year loan prime rates on Monday in the aftermath of a decision by the nation’s central bank last week to cut a key policy rate. The Chinese demand outlook has weighed on oil, which briefly sank below $90 a barrel in New York before rebounding and turning green. Traders are monitoring Iran nuclear talks that could lead to more supplies.
In premarket trading, GameStop and Bed Bath & Beyond led the declines in meme stocks as the latest frenzy in the cohort loses steam. GameStop -5.6%, Bed Bath & Beyond -8.6%; Fellow retail trading favorite AMC Entertainment Holdings was also down as the cinema theater operator’s preferred stock will start trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “APE” on Monday. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:
Signify Health (SGFY US) jumps 35% in premarket trading after reports of UnitedHealth (UNH US), Amazon.com (AMZN US), CVS (CVS US) and Option Care Health (OPCH US) vying to buy the health- care technology provider.
Tesla (TSLA US) and fellow electric-vehicle makers fall amid worries over a hawkish Fed ahead of Jackson Hole symposium this week, and following data showing China EV registrations declined in July.
Tesla drops as much as 2.7%; Rivian (RIVN US) -2.3%, Nikola (NKLA US) -2.8%.
CFRA cut its recommendation on Netflix (NFLX US) to sell from hold, saying the stock may underperform the S&P 500 Index for the rest of the year after rallying 40% from mid-July lows.
Netflix falls 2.2% amid a decline for Nasdaq futures.
GigaCloud (GCT US) shares rally as much as 40%, before paring gains to trade around 12% higher. The Chinese e-commerce firm is on course for its third session of straight gains following its Nasdaq debut last week.
A huge squeeze in global shares from June’s bear-market lows, stoked by the market’s expectations for a pivot to slower rate hikes, is rapidly fizzling after repeated Fed policy makers warned that interest rates are going higher. This weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium gives Jerome Powell a platform to reset those bets, which are vulnerable to the possibility of persistently elevated price pressures even as economic growth stumbles. Investors are also waking up to the looming acceleration of the Fed’s balance-sheet reduction: quantitative tightening kicks into top gear next month, and will add to pressure on riskier assets which have benefited from ample liquidity.
“It is likely central bankers, including Fed Chair Powell, will remain hawkish in dealing with inflation albeit with a bit of caution creeping in given the emerging economic downturn,” Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Services Ltd., wrote in a note.
Of course, the irony would be if markets melt up again next week just as hedge funds aggressively reset shorts: “The expectation is still that Powell will reaffirm what he and his colleagues have been saying in public recently,” said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at Oanda. “The risk is that he says something dovish — intentionally or otherwise — after investors position for the opposite and triggers another risk-on rally in the markets.”
The selling also accelerate in Europe, where the Stoxx 600 index dropped to its lowest level in more than three weeks, with autos, chemicals and tech the worst-performing industries as all sectors fall. The DAX lags, dropping 2%. S&P futures slide 1.3%, Nasdaq contracts tumble 1.6%. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
Fresenius SE shares rose as much as 7.1% after the company said Fresenius Kabi CEO Michael Sen will replace CEO Stephan Sturm. Berenberg says the choice is sensible and expected
EVS Broadcast Equipment shares jumped as much as 4% after the company announced a 10-year, $50m contract with a US-based broadcast and media production company on Friday
Scandinavian Tobacco Group shares fell as much as 19% after the Danish cigar and pipe tobacco manufacturer published its preliminary 2Q numbers and lowered its FY22 guidance
Deliveroo shares dropped as much as 6.8% amid a broader decline among European food delivery stocks. FY23 growth expectations for Deliveroo seem “stretched,” according to Morgan Stanley
B&S Group shares slid as much as 13%, dropping to the lowest since April 2020, after the company reported interim results ING described as a “weak set” of numbers
Intrum shares fell as much as 7.5%, their biggest decline since early May, after the board of the credit management firm replaced CEO Anders Engdahl with immediate effect
Covestro fell as much as 5.9%, hitting lowest since May 2020, after Stifel slashed its price target to EU34 from EU53, citing “shaky prospects” for the company
Dassault Aviation shares were down as much as 4.7% after French Transport Minister Clement Beaune said he wanted to regulate private jet use, according to an interview with Le Parisien newspaper
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell to more than a two week low as investors braced for a hawkish stance by US officials at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.7%, with the region’s tech giants TSMC and Tencent Holdings dragging down the measure the most.
MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share index fell for a third day with losses evident in most major markets except for some gains in China, where a move by banks to trimlending rates aided property developers.
Philippine stocks were the region’s biggest losers, sinking more than 2% as the central bank there signaled more hikes. Chinese equities advanced. Jerome Powell’s Friday speech at the central bankers’ gathering will be the highlight of the week, with markets expecting the Fed chair to reaffirm his determination to get inflation under control. Traders have already been paring back risky bets after Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Friday that the central bank was resolved to curb red-hot inflation even at the risk of a recession.
“The bear market rally seems to be fading ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium this week, which may see the Fed pushing back further on easing expectations for next year,” said Charu Chanana, a senior strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. Equities in mainland China posted rare gains in the region after the nation’s banks lowered their borrowing costs in a bid to stabilize the property market. That gave a positive boost, said Banny Lam, head of research at Ceb International Inv Corp. But markets are still on a bumpy ride as the dollar’s rise extends the outflow of liquidity from Asian assets, he added. Other key issues on the radar include corporate earnings results. More than 340 members of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, including battery heavyweight Contemporary Amperex Technology and e-commerce giant JD.com, are expected to release their financial results this week.
Japanese stocks fell as hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official put investors on edge ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. The Topix Index fell 0.1% to 1,992.59 in Tokyo on Monday, while the Nikkei declined 0.5% to 28,794.50. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, as the producer of sensors and scanners decreased 1.3%. Out of 2,170 stocks in the index, 1,123 fell, 924 rose and 123 were unchanged. “There is a bit of hawkishness coming out from the Fed as its seen trying to correct the direction of the market,” said Naoki Fujiwara, a chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management. “In the end, it’s profit taking as the market has gone up so far.”
Indian stocks fell for a second session on concerns the US Federal Reserve may remain committed to tightening monetary policy, which could impact foreign inflows to local equities. The S&P BSE Sensex declined 1.5%, its biggest drop since June 16, to 58,773.87 in Mumbai. The NSE Nifty 50 Index fell by a similar magnitude. Of the 30 member stocks of the Sensex, all but two declined. ICICI Bank Ltd. slipped 2.1% and was the biggest drag on the index. All 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. dropped, with a gauge of metal companies the worst performer. “While a correction was overdue for sometime after the recent upsurge, fresh concerns of a likely hawkish stance by the US Fed in its September meet and strengthening dollar index turned investors jittery and triggered a massive fall in banking, IT, metal & realty stocks,” Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities Ltd., wrote in a note. Overseas investment into local stocks totaled $6.3 billion from end-June through Aug. 18, after record outflows since October. The Fed’s symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week will be key for markets for clues on how the central bank plans to tackle price pressures.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1% to close at 7,046.90, tracking Friday’s losses on Wall Street as investors weighed the Fed’s next steps. The benchmark posted its worst session since July 11 as all sectors declined in Australia. Adbri was the biggest laggard after reporting a drop in 1H underlying Npat and trimming its interim dividend. EML Payments gained after announcing a buyback. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.7% to 11,763.95.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced for a fourth consecutive day, to the highest level since July 18, while the greenback advanced versus most of its Group-of-10 peers. The euro fell to a seven-year low against the Swiss franc, extending losses as concerns about a global economic slowdown prompted demand for the safe-haven Swiss currency. Australia’s dollar gained for the first time in six days after Chinese banks cut their loan prime rates in an effort to bolster the struggling property sector. Aussie bonds extended opening declines. The yen slipped to its lowest level in nearly a month as higher US yields amid growing bets for a hawkish Federal Reserve stance weighed on sentiment. Bonds fell, tracking US Treasuries.
In rates, Treasuries were cheaper, the 10- year US yield rising as much as three basis points to 2.9997%, adding to Friday’s climb, before falling back. 2-year yields rose by around 5bps, inverting the curve further with losses led by front-end of the curve where two-year yields trade 6bp higher versus Friday’s close. Further out the curve, bunds and gilts both lag with notable bear steepening move seen across UK curve. US yields cheaper by 6bp to 1bp across the curve in bear flattening move which sees 2s10s, 5s30s spreads trade tighter by 6bp and 1.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 2.98% after peaking at 2.9997% in early Asia session. Focus this week is on US auctions which kick-off Tuesday with $44b two-year note sale, followed by $45b five-year Wednesday and $37b seven-year Thursday. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; issuance expectations are low for the week and dependent on market conditions with the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, due to commence Thursday. Bunds and Italian bonds snapped four- day sliding streaks, with German debt gains led by the belly and Italy’s yield curve bull flattening as stock futures drop. Belgium sells five- and 10-year notes.
In commodities, WTI trades within Friday’s range, first falling as much as 1% before spiking and recovering all losses, with Brent jumping from a session low of $94.50 to a high of $96.90. Most base metals are in the red; LME copper falls 1%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $15 to trade near $1,732/oz.
It’s a busy week for the calendar, but we kick off on a day quiet note, with the day at hand featuring the Chicago Fed’s national activity index and earnings from Zoom and Palo Alto Networks.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 1.1% to 4,183.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 1.1% to 432.35
MXAP down 0.6% to 159.83
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 518.65
Nikkei down 0.5% to 28,794.50
Topix little changed at 1,992.59
Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 19,656.98
Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,277.79
Sensex down 1.2% to 58,934.14
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 7,046.88
Kospi down 1.2% to 2,462.50
Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,735.45
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.18% to 108.36
German 10Y yield little changed at 1.20%
Euro down 0.3% to $1.0006
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
European gas prices surged after Moscow’s move to shut a major pipeline ramped up fears of a prolonged supply halt, leaving Germany once again guessing as to how much Russian fuel it can count on this winter
About 2,000 dockers at the Port of Felixstowe began an eight-day walkout on Sunday, halting the flow of goods through the UK’s largest gateway for containerized imports and exports
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will have a chance — if he wants to take it — to reset expectations in financial markets when central bankers gather this week at their annual Jackson Hole retreat
A sober warning for Wall Street and beyond: The Federal Reserve is still on a collision course with financial markets. Stocks and bonds are set to tumble once more even though inflation has likely peaked, according to the latest MLIV Pulse survey, as rate hikes reawaken the great 2022 selloff
New Zealand’s central bank is open to the possibility of raising its benchmark rate as high as 4.25% amid uncertainty over the amount of tightening needed to regain control of inflation, Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby said
Swedish kronor bonds tied to environmental, social and governance goals are helping keep the country’s waning issuance market afloat this year
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly lower after last Friday’s declines in stocks and bonds across global markets in the aftermath of red-hot PPI data from Germany which rose by a new record high and stoked inflationary concerns, while the region also digests the PBoC’s latest actions on its benchmark lending rates. ASX 200 was pressured with all sectors subdued and as the influx of earnings continued. Nikkei 225 declined at the open as it took its cue from global peers and following reports that PM Kishida tested positive for COVID-19, although the index clawed back around half of the losses with help from a weak currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with early indecision as participants reflected on the PBoC’s rate actions in which it cut the 1-Year LPR by 5bps to 3.65% and reduced the 5-Year LPR by 15bps to 4.30% vs expectations for a 10bps cut to both, while the reduction in the 5-Year LPR which is the reference for mortgages, also followed recent measures to support the construction and delivery of unfinished residential projects through special loan schemes from policy banks. This provided some early support for developers although the broader sentiment was restricted amid the extension of factory power cuts in Sichuan.
Top Asian News
China’s Sichuan extended its factory power cuts to August 25th, according to Caixin.
Japanese PM Kishida tested positive for COVID-19 and is recuperating at his official residence, according to NHK.
Singapore PM Lee announced to reduce mask requirements as the COVID-19 situation stabilises with masks to only be required for public transport and healthcare settings with everywhere else optional. PM Lee also confirmed that Deputy PM Wong has been chosen to be the next leader and said authorities will soon announce new initiatives to attract talent, according to Reuters
Aluminum Up as China’s Worsening Power Shortages Tighten Supply
Debt Audit, Constitution Change on Angolan Opposition’s Agenda
Shanghai United Imaging Jumps 65% in Debut Post $1.6 Billion IPO
China Province Extends Power Cuts on Worst Drought Since ‘61
European bourses are under pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.8%, amid Nord Stream 1 maintenance. Updates that sparked a continuation of Friday’s downbeat price action and has caused particular downside for the likes of Uniper (-10%) while defenisve sectors outperform slightly. S futures are in-fitting both in terms of direction and magnitude, ES -1.3%, amid global recession and inflation fears. Panasonic (6752 JT) is to increase prices on 17 products from September 1st due to increasing material and manufacturing costs, hike will range between 2-33%.
Top European News
Cineworld Says It Considers Filing for Bankruptcy in the US
Vodafone Agrees to Sell Hungary Unit for 1.8 Billion Euros (1)
Borealis Curbs Fertilizer Output for Economic Reasons
UK Trial Lawyers Vote to Strike Indefinitely Over Fees
Biggest Rate Hike in Decades Is in Play in Israel: Day Guide
FX
DXY sees a firm start to the week as the index extends gains above 108.00, topping Friday’s peak.
EUR/USD has again dipped under parity amid jitters over a potential supply disruption as Russia is to shut the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
The Antipodeans are the relative outperformers but have waned off best levels amid the broader deterioration in sentiment.
The JPY has climbed its way up the ranks having experienced mild losses in APAC trade owing to widening yield differentials alongside losses in broad APAC FX.
Turkey’s Central Bank revised rules for Lira government bond collateral for FX deposits in which it raised the RRR for credit from 20% to 30% for bond collateral, according to Reuters.
Fixed Income
A session of pronounced two-way action for fixed benchmarks as energy and inflation vie for the limelight.
Initial upside (Bunds tested 152.85 Fib of Friday) occurred as sentiment deteriorate on Nord Stream 1’s unscheduled maintenance announcement.
However, this then swiftly retraced with core benchmarks modestly negative at worst, perhaps as attention pivoted to the associated inflation implications.
Stateside, USTs have been moving in tandem though the move lower was somewhat more contained as participants look to Jackson Hole at the tail-end of the week.
Commodities
WTI and Brent October contracts have continued trending downwards in a resumption of Friday’s action.
The main focus of this morning has been on European gas prices surging on news that Russia’s Gazprom will shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for three days.
Dutch TTF October surged over 18% whilst European coal for the next year rose over 5% to a new record.
Metals markets are hit by the firmer Dollar with spot gold losing further ground under USD 1,750/oz while LME copper eyes USD 8,000/t to the downside
Libya’s NOC said oil production was running at 1.211mln bpd, while the Waha Oil Co said gas output from the Faragh field increased to 149mcfd on Sunday from 95mcfd on Saturday, according to Reuters.
Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended oil loadings from two of three single mooring points at its Black Sea terminal for inspection, while CPC exports continue from the third mooring point and August loadings are currently unaffected, according to Reuters sources. Subsequently confirmed
Turkey has increased its imports of Russian oil to over 200k BPD so far this year (vs 98k BPD in the same period last year), according to Refinitiv data.
Norway Prelim. July production: Oil 1.646mln BPD (vs 1.298mln BPD in June); gas 10.9bcm (vs 10.0bcm in June), according to the Norway Oil Directorate.
US Event Calendar
08:30: July Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.25, prior -0.19
DB’s Tim Wessel concludes the overnight wrap
The annual plenary of the global central bank cognoscenti kicks off in Jackson Hole this week. The main macro dish of the deep dog days of summer – where this year’s theme is “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy” – will be highlighted by Chair Powell’s remarks due on Friday morning. Global production data will serve as suitable hors d’oeuvres throughout the week, while US PCE data on Friday will be a side dish commanding ample attention. Elsewhere, we receive the second estimate of 2Q US GDP; will the poor aftertaste of two consecutive quarterly retractions continue to overwhelm the otherwise supportive ingredients that comprise near-term growth?
Back to Jackson Hole, as the market looks for direction on the uncertain economic outlook and Fed reaction function, Chair Powell’s remarks are one of the key events that can jolt US policy expectations from their recent range, along with inflation and employment data preceding the September FOMC. Indeed, since the day of the July CPI print, 2yr Treasury yields are on net less than a basis point lower, while pricing of the September rate hike has oscillated in a narrow range that effectively has placed equal probabilities on a 50 or 75bp hike, as conviction around the terminal rate and intervening path of policy is low until the market can assess which way inflation (and the Fed) is breaking. The Chair will likely strike an imposing tone against the inflationary scourge, all the more given his remarks last year noted the bout of inflationary pressure was likely to be a transitory phenomenon (important to keep in mind how much the policy outlook can evolve over a 12-month time frame, let alone when uncertainty is this high here). While the Fed has taken to emphasizing two-way risks around the tightening cycle, most visibly in the minutes at the July meeting, the easing of financial conditions since the July meeting may force the Chair to re-orient expectations away from the balance of risks back toward the primary objective of bringing inflation lower.
Executive Board member Schnabel will be the highest profile ECB speaker at the gathering, where focus is on calibrating the ECB’s next policy action, which our team takes careful measure of, here, preserving another 50bp hike as their base case. Before Schnabel, due on a panel Saturday, the ECB’s account of the July meeting’s 50bp hike will provide yet more detail into the super-sized kickoff to the ECB’s tightening cycle. Elsewhere in Europe, the looming energy crisis will remain top of mind. German Chancellor Scholz and Vice Chancellor Habeck are in Canada to try and plug the energy gap left by dwindling Russian gas supplies. Along with alternative imports, the government is still weighing whether to extend the life of heretofore condemned nuclear facilities if sufficient supplies cannot be secured.
Asian equity markets are trading in negative territory at the start of the week amid a broad strength in the US dollar coupled with a potentially tighter Fed policy path. The Kospi (-0.78%) is the biggest underperformer across the region followed by the Nikkei (-0.46%) and the Hang Seng (-0.45%). Over in mainland China, markets are reclaiming earlier losses, with the Shanghai Composite (+0.43%) and CSI (+0.60%) both in the green after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprisingly slashed its benchmark lending rates yet again to shore up an economy battered by a worsening property slump and a resurgence of Covid-19 cases.
The PBOC slashed the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by -5bps to 3.65%, the first reduction since January while the five-year LPR (a reference for mortgages) was cut by -15 bps to 4.3% at the central bank’s monthly fixing. This move comes after a raft of data released last week indicated that the world’s second largest economy slowed in July.
US stock futures point to continued losses after ending last week on the downbeat, with the S&P 500 (-0.38%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.51%) edging lower. Elsewhere, crude oil prices are trading lower in Asia trading hours with Brent futures -0.98% down at $95.77/bbl.
Turning to a brief wrap of last week, the S&P 500 retreated -1.29% on Friday to bring the index -1.21% lower on the week, its first weekly decline in a month. The sharp decline Friday came absent any material data or policy developments; instead, it appeared programmatic selling and large options expiries concocted headwinds that were too hard for the index to overcome, where health care (+0.27%) and energy (+0.02%) were the only sectors to escape the day in the green, and only just. The STOXX 600 also fell over the week, retreating -0.80% (-0.77% Friday).
In rates, 10yr Treasuries gained +14.1bps over the week, +9.0bps of which came on Friday, though, as mentioned, the net move in 2yr Treasury yields was smaller, having fallen -0.08bps over the week (+3.6bps Friday) as we await further direction from the Fed or from the data. 10yr bund yields increased each of the last four days of the week to end +24.3bps higher (+12.8bps Friday), as the inflationary impact of the energy crisis gripped markets. For their part, OATs climbed +26.1bps (+12.8bps Friday) and BTPs were +43.0bps higher (+17.1bps Friday). Of course, European energy prices from natural gas (+18.65%, +1.47% Friday) to German power (+21.42%, +4.02% Friday) rose to record highs as crisis binds the continent.
The week kicks off on a day quiet note, with the day at hand featuring the Chicago Fed’s national activity index and earnings from Zoom and Palo Alto Networks.
END
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK
Risk-off amid unscheduled Nord Stream 1 maintenance, EUR/USD probes parity – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, AUG 22, 2022 – 06:35 AM
European bourses are under pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.8%, amid Nord Stream 1 maintenance.
US futures are in-fitting both in terms of direction and magnitude, ES -1.3%, amid global recession and inflation fears.
DXY has extended above Friday’s peak as EUR/USD probes parity once as safe havens benefit somewhat from the broader tone
Action that also saw pronounced initial fixed income upside; however, this has waned as inflation implications draw focus
European gas prices surge amid unscheduled Nord Stream maintenance while crude benchmarks are subdued
PBoC undertook asymmetric cuts to its LPRs while ECB’s Nagel and RBNZ’s Hawkesby provided hawkish commentary
Looking ahead, highlights include Israel Policy Announcement & US National Activity Index.
As of 10:55BST/05:55ET
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LOOKING AHEAD
Israel Policy Announcement & US National Activity Index.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russian Kalibr missiles destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for US HIMARS rocket systems in Ukraine’s Odesa region, according to RIA.
Ukrainian President Zelensky warned of a potential escalation by Russia ahead of Ukraine’s Independence Day on Wednesday, according to WSJ.
UK PM Johnson, US President Biden, German Chancellor Scholz and French President Macron stressed in a call the importance of ensuring the safety and security of nuclear sites in Ukraine, according to Reuters citing a Downing Street spokesperson.
US Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo told Turkish Deputy Finance Minister Elitas that Russian entities and individuals are attempting to use Turkey to bypass western sanctions, while they discussed ongoing efforts to implement and enforce sanctions against Russia, according to Reuters.
UN Secretary-General Guterres said it is important that all governments and the private sector cooperate to bring Russian food and fertilisers to the market, while he added that they are getting more food and fertiliser out of Ukraine and Russia is important to further calm commodity markets and lower prices for consumers. Guterres also said they are working hard with parties to remove obstacles in financing and insurance to enable Russian fertiliser and food exports, according to Reuters.
The daughter of a prominent supporter of Russian President Putin was killed in a car bomb attack in a suburb near Moscow on Saturday night, according to FT.
CHINA-TAIWAN
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said 17 Chinese military aircraft and 5 warships continued activities around Taiwan on Saturday, while it detected 12 Chinese aircraft and 5 ships around Taiwan on Sunday in which 5 aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line, according to Reuters.
Indiana state governor Holcomb arrived in Taiwan on Sunday night ahead of other scheduled foreign visits to Taiwan this week including a group of Japanese lawmakers on Monday and another US delegation at the weekend, according to FT.
OTHER
US President Biden’s administration has recently been seeking to reassure Israel that it hasn’t agreed to new concessions with Iran and that a nuclear deal is not imminent although Israeli officials said they were not reassured, according to an Axios report citing US and Israeli officials.
North Korea is expected to conduct a nuclear test before the US mid-term elections, according to Yonhap citing former South Korean spy chief Park Jie-won.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, on the Iranian Nuclear deal, said “we are still on the path of negotiations”, via Tehran Times; “Relatively good progress has been made, but nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.” Adding, if the US responds negatively, will continue with Plan B which is existing foreign policy with serious determination, regardless of JCPOA revival discussions
CENTRAL BANKS
PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (Aug) 3.65% vs. Exp. 3.60% (Prev. 3.70%)
PBoC 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (Aug) 4.30% vs. Exp. 4.35% (Prev. 4.45%)
ECB’s Nagel said the central bank must keep raising rates even if the risk of a recession increases as inflation will remain too high otherwise and said that Germany could see price growth of over 10% in the coming months, according to Rheinischen Post.
RBNZ Deputy Governor Hawkesby said the strategy is to get monetary policy conditions comfortably above neutral and that they considered both a 25bps and 75bps hike before deciding to raise by 50bps this month. Hawkesby added that they will have a more balanced view on policy outlook once rates get to 4.00%-4.25% and said there is ambiguity surrounding the Cash Rate peak.
RBNZ’s Richardson said recent strong domestic and inflation pressure was a surprise, while he added that the bank is using full flexibility of its medium-term inflation mandate and that a 25bps rate hike wasn’t a major part of the discussion.
Citi forecasts UK CPI at 18.6% in January (prev. forecast Q1 2023 “above 15%”); scale of inflation will push the BoE to tighten further, via FT.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are under pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.8%, amid Nord Stream 1 maintenance.
Updates that sparked a continuation of Friday’s downbeat price action and has caused particular downside for the likes of Uniper (-10%) while defenisve sectors outperform slightly.
US futures are in-fitting both in terms of direction and magnitude, ES -1.3%, amid global recession and inflation fears.
Panasonic (6752 JT) is to increase prices on 17 products from September 1st due to increasing material and manufacturing costs, hike will range between 2-33%.
DXY sees a firm start to the week as the index extends gains above 108.00, topping Friday’s peak.
EUR/USD has again dipped under parity amid jitters over a potential supply disruption as Russia is to shut the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
The Antipodeans are the relative outperformers but have waned off best levels amid the broader deterioration in sentiment.
The JPY has climbed its way up the ranks having experienced mild losses in APAC trade owing to widening yield differentials alongside losses in broad APAC FX.
Turkey’s Central Bank revised rules for Lira government bond collateral for FX deposits in which it raised the RRR for credit from 20% to 30% for bond collateral, according to Reuters.
A session of pronounced two-way action for fixed benchmarks as energy and inflation vie for the limelight.
Initial upside (Bunds tested 152.85 Fib of Friday) occurred as sentiment deteriorate on Nord Stream 1’s unscheduled maintenance announcement.
However, this then swiftly retraced with core benchmarks modestly negative at worst, perhaps as attention pivoted to the associated inflation implications.
Stateside, USTs have been moving in tandem though the move lower was somewhat more contained as participants look to Jackson Hole at the tail-end of the week.
WTI and Brent October contracts have continued trending downwards in a resumption of Friday’s action.
The main focus of this morning has been on European gas prices surging on news that Russia’s Gazprom will shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for three days.
Dutch TTF October surged over 18% whilst European coal for the next year rose over 5% to a new record.
Metals markets are hit by the firmer Dollar with spot gold losing further ground under USD 1,750/oz while LME copper eyes USD 8,000/t to the downside
Libya’s NOC said oil production was running at 1.211mln bpd, while the Waha Oil Co said gas output from the Faragh field increased to 149mcfd on Sunday from 95mcfd on Saturday, according to Reuters.
Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended oil loadings from two of three single mooring points at its Black Sea terminal for inspection, while CPC exports continue from the third mooring point and August loadings are currently unaffected, according to Reuters sources. Subsequently confirmed
Turkey has increased its imports of Russian oil to over 200k BPD so far this year (vs 98k BPD in the same period last year), according to Refinitiv data.
Norway Prelim. July production: Oil 1.646mln BPD (vs 1.298mln BPD in June); gas 10.9bcm (vs 10.0bcm in June), according to the Norway Oil Directorate.
Workers at UK’s largest container port Felixstowe began an 8-day strike which the union and shipping companies have warned could seriously impact trade and supply chains, according to Reuters.
UK plans to enable households to get discounts on electricity bills if they cut use at peak times are set to be announced in the next two weeks, according to the BBC. Separately, GPs could write prescriptions for discounts on energy bills for the most vulnerable under a plan drawn up by the Treasury, according to The Guardian.
Germany is to prioritise coal trains over passenger services amid its energy crisis, according to Welt am Sonntag.
German Finance Minister Lindner plans to implement a relief package next month, according to Focus.
Fitch affirmed Estonia at AA-; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable and affirmed Slovakia at A; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable, while Moody’s affirmed Cyprus at Ba1; Outlook revised to Positive from Stable and S&P raised Ukraine to CCC+ from SD.
APAC stocks were mostly lower after last Friday’s declines in stocks and bonds across global markets in the aftermath of red-hot PPI data from Germany which rose by a new record high and stoked inflationary concerns, while the region also digests the PBoC’s latest actions on its benchmark lending rates.
ASX 200 was pressured with all sectors subdued and as the influx of earnings continued.
Nikkei 225 declined at the open as it took its cue from global peers and following reports that PM Kishida tested positive for COVID-19, although the index clawed back around half of the losses with help from a weak currency.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with early indecision as participants reflected on the PBoC’s rate actions in which it cut the 1-Year LPR by 5bps to 3.65% and reduced the 5-Year LPR by 15bps to 4.30% vs expectations for a 10bps cut to both, while the reduction in the 5-Year LPR which is the reference for mortgages, also followed recent measures to support the construction and delivery of unfinished residential projects through special loan schemes from policy banks. This provided some early support for developers although the broader sentiment was restricted amid the extension of factory power cuts in Sichuan.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
China’s Sichuan extended its factory power cuts to August 25th, according to Caixin.
Japanese PM Kishida tested positive for COVID-19 and is recuperating at his official residence, according to NHK.
Singapore PM Lee announced to reduce mask requirements as the COVID-19 situation stabilises with masks to only be required for public transport and healthcare settings with everywhere else optional. PM Lee also confirmed that Deputy PM Wong has been chosen to be the next leader and said authorities will soon announce new initiatives to attract talent, according to Reuters.
i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.72 PTS OR 0.61% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 116.05 OR 0595% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 135.83 OR % 0.47. //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.97% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.8423//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.8445// /Oil UP TO 88.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 96.55// / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
end
3c CHINA
CHINA//
END
CHINA/POWER CRISIS
end
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/
EUROPE/ENERGY
Amazing, zinc and aluminum smelters in Europe have been closed down in Europe due to soaring power prices. They cannot afford to produce these impotant commodities because of the high price of electricity/natural gas
(zerohedge)
Zinc, Aluminum Smelters Shuttered In Europe Due To Soaring Power Prices
MONDAY, AUG 22, 2022 – 06:55 AM
Second-round effects from Europe’s astronomical power price increases are coming in hot and heavy.
With both French and German 1-year ahead baseload electricity prices hitting levels which mean only a handful of Europeans will be able to afford power in one year (and the rest will soon be short a kidney)…
… Europe’s energy crisis has claimed another victim in the power-hungry metals industry, after Norsk Hydro said it planned to shutter an aluminum smelter in Slovakia at the end of next month, Bloomberg reports.
With Aluminum one of the most energy-intensive metals to produce, the closure of the Slovalco facility adds to growing signs of stress in Europe’s industrial economy as power prices surge to record highs. It’s why Hydro and others are now moving to shut down plants entirely. The region had already lost about half of its zinc and aluminum smelting capacity during the past year, mainly as producers dialed back output.
Hydro, Slovalco’s majority owner, said the closure was a response to adverse conditions including “high electricity prices, which show no signs of improvement in the short term.” The smelter was running at 60% of its 175,000-ton annual capacity and would suffer substantial losses if it continued operations beyond 2022, the Norwegian firm said. On Tuesday, Hydro said production at another aluminum plant in Norway would be impacted by a strike starting Aug. 22, adding to the strain on supplies.
The news came one day after Zinc prices jumped after one of Europe’s largest zinc smelters said it too would halt production next month as the continent’s energy crisis threatens to hobble heavy industries.
The Budel smelter in the Netherlands – controlled by Trafigura Group’s Nyrstar – will be placed on care and maintenance from Sept. 1 “until further notice,” according to a company statement. Zinc trading on the London Metal Exchange jumped as much as 7.2% to the highest intraday level in two months as traders priced in even tighter supply.
Earlier this month, top zinc producer Glencore Plc warned that Europe’s energy crisis posed a substantial threat to supply. Smelters across the region are barely turning a profit and the Nyrstar plant, which accounts for about 2% of global output, has been operating at a reduced rate since the fourth quarter of last year.
The decline in European zinc production has seen local LME stockpiles fall close to zero this year, while global inventories remain near the lowest in more than two years. “There will be a bit of capacity juggling going on,” said Tom Price, an analyst at Liberum Capital. “If the EU needs their metal, they will probably have to import more semi-refined material or the metal itself.”
Europe’s energy crisis has sparked increasingly volatile trading on the London Metal Exchange, as traders assess a slew of supply losses against the rising risk that runaway inflation and tightening monetary policy will hammer demand for industrial metals in some of the world’s top economies. The collapse of hedging due to extreme volatility and illiquidity has not helped with the soaring volatility.
Slovalco will earn about 1.6 billion krone, or $165 million selling its hedges for power, metals and raw materials over the second half of the year, it said.
Industries from fertilizer to aluminum are being crippled by soaring energy costs as Russia squeezes gas flows to Europe following its invasion of Ukraine, flows which will only slow further following last week’s report that Nord Stream 1 will be shut down from Aug 31 to (at least) Sept 2. Benchmark power prices soared to fresh all-time highs this week as the worst energy crisis in decades looks set to persist well into next year.
As Bloomberg notes, the metals industry’s massive power requirements leaves it in the firing line as power prices surge and politicians push ahead with measures to cut energy usage over winter. Each ton of aluminum takes about 14 megawatt-hours of power to produce, enough to run an average UK home for more than three years. Production of zinc — which requires about 4 megawatt-hours of power per ton — is also under acute strain, with prices rallying sharply Tuesday after one of the region’s biggest smelters said it would suspend output next month.
“Inevitably, the high European power prices are starting to see more aggressive closures of energy-intensive metal production facilities,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research, said in an emailed note. “Many zinc smelters in Europe have been running below full capacity all year, but this is the first full closure at a major facility.”
Traders are also monitoring power issues in China, where Sichuan province – a significant aluminum hub – is rationing electricity amid soaring temperatures. China boosted exports in recent months to help plug the gap overseas, and a reversal in that trend could underpin prices even as risks to demand grow.
end
GERMANY//Coal
Germany is now prioritizing coal shipments across rail over passenger trains as the energy crisis worsens
(zerohedge)
Germany To Prioritize Coal Shipments Across Rail Network Over Passenger Trains Amid Worsening Energy Crisis
MONDAY, AUG 22, 2022 – 02:45 AM
The latest sign lawmakers in Europe’s industrial heartland are preparing for what could be a disastrous winter of reduced natural gas supplies from Russia and record high electricity prices is a new proposal to prioritize Germany’s rail network for coal shipments over passenger services, according to Bloomberg, citing local newspaper Welt am Sonntag.
Even though Germany has promised to eliminate coal-fired power generation in the coming years, the historic energy crisis has made it more dependent on coal than ever as Russian flows of NatGas slump ahead of winter.
Economy Minister Robert Habeck recently said increased reliance on coal is bitter but necessary.
And we must give our readers a spoiler alert: there’s no way Germany will eliminate coal as a power source by 2030. If anything, it will be more reliant on it than ever unless it extends the life of its nuclear power plants.
“Priority is normally given to passenger transport in Germany, and timetables are geared toward it. As a result, there’s a risk of chaos on the rails from making the change,” Bloomberg said, citing the draft.
There’s a strong possibility the draft will be passed as a way to accelerate coal shipments via rail to power plants ahead of winter to ensure there are adequate supplies. Coal power generation is expected to soar in Europe’s largest economy this winter as a move to boost energy security.
The draft plan comes as German year-ahead power, a European benchmark, skyrocketed last week to a record 570 euros per megawatt-hour, with French prices rising as much as 3% to 720 euros. Coal prices in Europe also hit a record of 310 euros a ton.
Russia continues to squeeze NatGas flows to Europe as a heat wave limits hydroelectric and nuclear production. Rhine River levels have dropped to dangerously low levels, disrupting commodity cargos on the continent’s most important inland waterway. However, the good news this weekend is water levels have risen.
Germany’s increasing coal use this winter will be made possible by the rail system delivering supplies to power plants.
So much for the Europeans spearheading efforts toward green energy as Putin’s energy insecurity strategy appears to be a major success where it has caused stagflation and chaos across Germany.
end
GERMANY/NUCLEAR POWER
Top German officials state that life extensions for all nuclear power plants will not help with energy crunch.
(zerohedge)
Top German Official Says Life Extensions For All Nuclear Power Plants Unlikely
MONDAY, AUG 22, 2022 – 12:56 PM
Europe’s electricity prices jumped to a new record high on Monday. The energy crisis worsened as top German officials said extending the life of the country’s last three nuclear power plants would do very little in resolving the energy crunch ahead of winter as Russia squeezes natural gas supplies.
German media outlet Deutsche Welle reported German Economy Minister Robert Habeck spoke at the government’s open-door day in Berlin on Sunday. The official said extending the lifespan of the three nuclear power plants would only save 2% of NatGas use.
It’s the “wrong decision given how little we would save,” Habeck said. However, he said extending the lifespan of the Bavaria nuclear plant could be an option because it would supply much-needed power to a major manufacturing hub that relies heavily on NatGas-fired power plants and has limited coal-fired plants and low wind production.
While this isn’t the first time the government downplayed the possibility of extending the lifespan of the plants, comments last week from the government denied a WSJ report that indicated a possible extension.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz was also present at the event and echoed a similar message:
“What worries me is that there is no ready answer to the question of what happens when gas runs out.
“If we were to make the decision to keep them running so that we make sure we don’t have a problem this winter, then it will only make a small contribution to solving our challenge, because it is only about electricity production.”
Bloomberg data shows that nuclear power generation in Europe’s largest economy has steadily declined since the 2011 meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan.
Germany has asked citizens to conserve NatGas and reduce power consumption. The latest data from the Federal Network Agency, the country’s energy regulator, show that NatGas storage is around 78% full.
“There is no scenario in which there is no gas, but there is a scenario in which there is not enough gas in storage, and supplies in other forms are not not so available as they were,” said Habeck. “The question is how big is the gap in the worst case. There is a gap and that is the real question.”
A recent poll of Germans shows about 60% of them favor extending the life of the three nuclear power plants.
So it appears Habeck might only support the Bavaria nuclear power plant’s lifespan because it supplies critical power to factories.
Meanwhile, German power prices hit a new record high Monday of more than 700 euros per megawatt-hour as energy markets are convinced the nuke plant extensions aren’t coming.
Power prices are 14 times the seasonal average over the past five years. Even though nuclear is a small percentage, every little bit would help the energy-stricken country ahead of what’s expected to be a dark winter.
The major question is when EU leaders will wake up that they need Russia NatGas this winter season or risk high energy inflation that will spark socio-economic turmoil across the continent.
UK
UK’s largest port hit with a massive strike and that will spark more supply chain chaos!
(zerohedge)
Largest UK Port Hit With Massive Strike, Sparking Supply Chain Chaos Fears
MONDAY, AUG 22, 2022 – 04:15 AM
At least 2,000 members of the Unite Union at the Port of Felixstowe in Suffolk began a strike on Sunday morning over contract disputes to boost pay amid the highest inflation in decades.
The industrial action at Felixstowe, the UK’s largest container, is alarming due to the possibility that eight planned days of strikes could disrupt already bruised supply chains.
BBC News said Unite members rejected a 7% pay increase from Felixstowe Dock and Railway Company last week, which it said was under the current inflation rate.
From Unite’s regional office, Miles Hubbard said, “very few people reported for work this morning.” He said picket lines were growing Sunday and there was even support from the public.
The country’s busiest port, handling about 48% of all containerized trade, has about 2,550 workers, many of which operate cranes, drive trucks, and load and unload ships. Today’s walk could paralyze the port.
Port spokesman Paul Davey said port workers made on average £43,000 and were offered a 7% increase in pay plus a £500 bonus, calling the offer “very fair.”
But how fair? The latest blistering CPI print hit double-digits at 10.1%, the highest in forty years. So in real terms, the offer by the port for workers was a lousy deal for those struggling with soaring energy inflation.
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, one of the world’s top container shippers, warned the strike is expected to disrupt trade and delay vessels.
Dr. Kamran Mahroof, associate professor in supply chain analytics at the University of Bradford, added more color on the imminent supply chain disruptions:
“Although a lot of the goods that pass through this particular port might be your fridges and laptops, there will be a lot of frozen goods foods that might also be passing through this channel.
“So there will be disruptions, but the importance here is to ensure that it is limited only for eight days as they say.
“Prolonging this might mean we might have to divert where goods go, but infrastructure might not be able to cope.”
Bloomberg data shows China is one of the top export/import countries through Felixstowe.
With a recession looming, the stoppage at Felixstowe could spark even more havoc for stressed-out supply chains and logistical networks.
Disruption is the new normal in the UK. Londoners faced travel delays this weekend as rail workers, and bus drivers walked off the job, demanding higher pay due to soaring inflation.
Industrial actions are spreading from industry to industry as the worsening cost-of-living crisis sends millions of households into financial turmoil.
Felixstowe’s strike is expected through Aug. 29, but there’s no telling if a speedy resolution is in sight as this is the first strike for the port in three decades.
END
A stunning new report by Citibank who issues a warning that UK inflation may hit 18%. Also the Bundesbank fears another surge in prices
(zerohedge)
Citi Issues Apocalyptic Warning About UK Inflation; German Central Bank Fears Further Surge In Prices
MONDAY, AUG 22, 2022 – 08:29 AM
A startling new report forecasts the inflation rate in the UK could spike to 18% for the first time in nearly half a century due to surging energy costs in the upcoming winter season.
Benjamin Nabarro, the chief UK economist at Citi, told clients Monday that it expects CPI inflation to hit a mindboggling 18.6% in January due to soaring natural gas and power costs.
Nabarro predicted the retail energy price cap would be increased to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April, compared with £1,971 in August. Here’s what he told clients:
Our latest estimate, updated for the further 25% and 7% rally in UK gas and electricity prices last week, points to a further upside shift in UK inflation.
Accounting for these developments, as well as updating our own weights for CPI/ RPI and honing our own accounting for curve backwardation, we now expect CPI inflation to peak at over 18% in January. RPI inflation, we think, will peak at over 20%.
The last time CPI printed above 18% was during the stagflationary years of the mid-1970s (more precisely 1976) after an oil supply shock led to soaring energy prices worldwide.
Currently, the CPI stands at 10.1% in July for the first time in four decades, primarily driven by skyrocketing food and fuel prices as households crumble under the weight of the cost of living crisis.
Meanwhile, high inflation pushed the UK Misery Index, an economic indicator to gauge how the average person is doing, to three-decade highs, a sign discontent is emerging.
There’s also been a series of large-scale strikes as working poor demand higher wages as inflation crushes their financial well-being. The latest strike could paralyze the country’s largest containerized port this week.
Citi’s Nabarro also warned that “the risks remain skewed to the upside,” the Bank of England could raise interest rates to 6%-7% “should signs of more embedded inflation emerge.”
BOE predicted earlier this month that inflation would peak around 13% by the end of the year. Rate traders have expected interest rates to top out at about 3.5%.
Nabarro said the government could introduce a support package next month through tax cuts in an emergency budget.
If Citi is right about its inflation forecast, it will continue obliterating living standards, resulting in social instabilities.
Meanwhile, Germany’s inflation rate could surge above 10% this fall — the highest in seven decades — due to the energy squeeze, the country’s central bank chief Joachim Nagel told the Rheinische Post.
“The issue of inflation will not go away in 2023,” Nagel said, according to an official transcript from the German central bank. “Supply bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions are likely to continue.”
He said the German central bank predicted in a June forecast that 2023 inflation would reach 4.5%, though he now believes the rate would be steady above 6%.
“As the energy crisis deepens, a recession appears likely next winter,” Nagel warned.
Europe is on the cusp of a dark winter of high inflation, energy shortages, and stagflation, a toxic cocktail that could send some EU member countries into recession while their respective central banks continue to hike rates to quell inflation — this in itself is policy error.
UK
The following shows how the UK economy is in serious trouble: abandoned pets as the cost of living skyrockets
(zerohedge>
“A Perfect Storm”: Sharp Rise In Abandoned Pets As Cost-Of-Living Skyrockets In UK
According to the center, the abandoning of pets was caused by a “perfect storm” of increased dog ownership during the pandemic, combined with surging rents and other costs of living.
According to the BBC, UK households bought 3.2 million pets in the first year after the lockdown.
Rolo, a one-year-old terrier is one of the many dogs at the rescue centre.
He was brought by a dog warden as a stray, with very little known about his background.
The centre said although he was very friendly, he could get overwhelmed in some situations, so needs a gentle approach.
The centre’s owner and founder, Vanessa Wadden, said Rolo was one of many and the situation was the worst she has seen 17 years.
“In the last three months alone we’ve had over 300 calls from people asking for our help,” she said.
“It is very dramatic, it is a perfect storm.
“We are having to turn dogs away and that is the hardest bit, it is heartbreaking.” -BBC
According to the report, rescue centers across Wales are struggling to cope with the surge.
“There are circumstances where we can’t always help, we can’t always take the dog in there and then, but we would urge owners to always pick up the phone,” said Hope Rescue’s Katie Bull.
“We can always offer advice if you are struggling to feed the dog, or struggling with medical costs and we can also put people on the waiting list.”
At the Cardiff Dogs Home, the number of strays, surrendered and unwanted dogs has been rising on a daily basis – and they’ve seen record inquiries.
“The demand has been quite striking for lots of different reasons,” said manager Maria Bailey. “We are getting about 40 to 50 calls a month. Between April and July this year we have taken in 225 dogs, that is roughly 56 dogs a month at the moment so we are pretty much full all the time.“
end
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/
END
RUSSIA/(/UKRAINE)
A Deadly Glimpse of Russia’s Bombardment of Ukrainian troops – A Son of the New American Revolution
Inbox
Robert Hryniak
12:26 PM (5 minutes ago)
to
One cannot help but moan about the awful waste of humanity in the Ukraine as innocence is trampled by unclean hands of enablers and invaders of all manner. But then good PR rivets attention to this travesty while so many others like Somalia are being ravaged by Drones carrying out pain and suffering, in silence of a uncaring world. One wonders sometimes what is the difference of death in one place or the next, for profit. Around the globe there is so much that happens daily for accepted blood sport. If we are to worry about eating meat because we kill animals for food; what do we say about the Chinese and others who carve out body parts of the living to transplant to further an existence of another? Crazy standards haunt human conditions. One imagines that killing in one local uncontested is simply a unconscious uncaring exercise, while in other cases the testing of military talons to sharpen focus of new weaponry is the price of devastation, for future battlefield proficiency. And clearly many parties are using the Ukraine to test battlefield systems for future use and carnage. While we often hear about the effectiveness of weapons like HIMARS, what is not described is the Russian air combat response of a “hunt and kill” approach in stand off weapons. Here in the video you can see the effect. Contrary to the propaganda we get spoon fed by western media, daily battlefield reporting suggests so far nothing has had much effective against the “meat grinder” advancing acros the Donbas eliminating all resistance in it’s path. And we have seen less than 10% of Russian forces deployed. Imagine what would happen if they got serious about a short term solution instead of a longer steady grinding approach. One can only have empathy for those troops sent to die needlessly as no amount of poorly trained or equipped troops is going to accomplish anything but allow loved ones to mourn their demise. As it is 70% of all weapons sent to the Ukraine are being sold off for profit. To say war is not a racket is being blind to those who choose to profit of the blood of those sacrificed for profit. The travesty from all of the suffering, death , destruction and cries for more is that clearly we as a species fail to learn from history and we repeat it’s errors without learning or if learnt, choose to ignore the real causes of civil actions that destroy countries and culture robbing the future of greatness. We can and must do better if we desire to advance to a more enlightened existence. And in the coming turmoil of the next decade or more, we will see and experience more upheaval than in the last 50 years and hopefully at the end of this upheaval come to our senses to live a more productive existence. As Voltaire said “ the only constant is change”.
end
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES
This tells you something: Federal government (USA) to stop paying for COVID shots.
(zerohedge)
Federal Government To Stop Paying For COVID Shots, Tests, & Treatments
FRIDAY, AUG 19, 2022 – 08:40 PM
The Biden administration is starting to transition the federal government away from paying for Covid-19 vaccines, tests and treatments, with the shift likely to materialize this fall.
“One of the things we’ve spent a lot of time thinking about in the last many months…is getting us out of that acute emergency phase where the US government is buying the vaccines, buying the treatments, buying the diagnostic tests,” White House Covid-19 Response Coordinator Ashish Jha said at a US Chamber of Commerce Foundation event on Tuesday.
“My hope is that in 2023, you’re going to see the commercialization of almost all of these products,” Jha added. “Some of that is actually going to begin this fall, in the days and weeks ahead.” Earlier this year, a White House request for another $10 billion in pandemic response funding stalled in Congress.
On Thursday, The Wall Street Journalreported that, on Aug. 30, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) will host a meeting of pharmaceutical companies, state health departments and pharmacies to start sorting out how to make the transition, which also include regulatory adjustments.
Referring to the broader transition, Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America SVP Anne McDonald Pritchett told the Journal “there are issues of reimbursement, equitable access to vaccines and treatment, and distribution that need to be resolved.”
“Resolving the issue of equitable access” loosely translates to figuring out how to still give many tests, vaccines and treatments away to the uninsured and others — so drug companies will still be reaping some benefit from governmental redistribution of wealth where Covid-19 is concerned.
The federal government has already stopped buying monoclonal antibody treatments, such as Eli Lilly’s bebtelovimab. The list price is $2,100 a dose, and Lilly is working with HHS to transition to direct sales to health care providers. At the same time, “Lilly is coordinating with the US government to identify solutions so that uninsured, lower-income individuals can access bebtelovimab,” an Eli Lilly spokeswoman told Bloomberg.
Pfizer and Moderna racked up $79 billion in Covid vaccine sales in 2021 alone, the Journal reports, with sales juiced by public health officials’ false claims of efficacy, coupled with coercive vaccination requirements imposed by governments, schools and employers.
Moving forward, Covid-associated prices will be subject to negotiations among drug-makers, pharmacy benefit managers and insurance companies. Kaiser Family Foundation executive vice president Larry Levitt told the Journal the net effect will likely be higher prices and higher insurance premiums.
However, after TheWall Street Journal reported on Thursday that planning for the transition is getting underway in earnest, shares of vaccine makers slumped: Moderna was down 5% and Pfizer down nearly 2%. “Moderna will be at a disadvantage as the Covid-19 vaccines enter the commercial market, as it goes up against Pfizer, which has a substantially larger commercial infrastructure,” said Josh Nathan-Kazis of Barron’s.
While the inept government middleman was in the mix, Pfizer and Moderna were happy to churn out far more vaccines than the market demanded. Between December 2020 and mid-May of this year, US federal agencies, pharmacies and states threw out a whopping 82.1 million Covid-19 vaccine doses.
A new report based on official figures from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) asserts that the effects of lockdown may now be killing more people than COVID-19.
The stats show that non-COVID excess deaths continue to outstrip COVID deaths, with 1,000 people dying each week from conditions other than the virus.
“The Telegraph understands that the Department of Health has ordered an investigation into the figures amid concern that the deaths are linked to delays to and deferment of treatment for conditions such as cancer, diabetes and heart disease,” reports the newspaper.
Despite some calling for the re-introduction of COVID restrictions such as face masks in the winter, “the country is facing a new silent health crisis linked to the pandemic response rather than to the virus itself,” states the report.
“Hundreds and hundreds of people dying every week – what is going on?” asked Dr Charles Levinson, the chief executive of Doctorcall, a private GP service.
“Delays in seeking and receiving healthcare are no doubt the driving force, in my view,” he added.
“Daily Covid statistics demanded the nation’s attention, yet these terrifying figures barely get a look in. A full and urgent government investigation is required immediately.”
Cases of undetected cancers, cardiac problems and serious mental health conditions are surging, with excess deaths 14.4 per cent higher than the five-year average.
The The British Heart Foundation said it was “deeply concerned” by the situation.
But the media is largely disinterested, despite scaring the public for years with ominous COVID death toll numbers.
Experts have long warned that the effects of lockdown would end up killing more people than COVID, although they were demonized and censored at the time by the establishment.
Academics from Duke, Harvard, and Johns Hopkins have concluded that there could be around a million excess deaths over the next two decades as a result of lockdowns.
A study conducted by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) found that there were conservatively 170,000+ non-Covid excess deaths in the U.S. through 2020 and 2021, numbers exacerbated by lockdowns.
Another study conducted by Johns Hopkins University and released in February concluded that global lockdowns have had a much more detrimental impact on society than they have produced any benefit, with researchers urging that they “are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.”
Stanford University professor of medicine Jay Bhattacharya said that in years to come lockdowns will be looked back upon as the most catastrophically harmful policy in “all of history.”
end
Severe cases of COVID are rare in people who did not get the vaccine
Severe COVID ‘Rare’ in People Who Didn’t Get Vaccine, Survey Reveals
There have been very few studies looking at how those who’ve elected to rely on natural immunity and natural products, as compared with those who’ve consented to COVID-19 genetic vaccines, the latter who may or may not have, also tried to optimize their immune systems, fare when it comes to COVID-19.
The few that have been done often mix vaccinated with unvaccinated, as shown in the case of U.K. data by professor Norman Fenton and his group at Queen Mary, University of London.
That changes with the first release of the analysis of survey data from the international Control Group project — also known as the Vax Control Group.
The citizen-led project was initiated by an Eastbourne (U.K.) cooperative, the Control Group Cooperative — and it’s had more than 300,000 subscribers.
Rob Verkerk Ph.D. of Alliance for Natural Health has led a team, including Dr. Naseeba Kathrada (general practitioner, South Africa, Caring Healthcare Workers Coalition), Christof Plothe D.O. (integrative and osteopathic practitioner, Germany) and Dr. Kat Lindley (family physician, USA), that has collated, analyzed and interpreted the first five months of survey data from “control group” participants.
The survey data offer important revelations, including:
The unvaccinated “control group” participants don’t place a disproportionate burden on health systems — in fact, quite the opposite, they have experienced very low hospitalization rates and severe COVID-19 disease is rare.
They are more likely to self-care, using natural products like vitamin D, vitamin C, zinc and quercetin.
Many have used ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine.
Women have suffered menstrual and bleeding abnormalities despite being unvaccinated, possibly owing to spike protein exposure and shedding.
Their mental health burden has been considerable, possibly aggravated by their stigmatization by the mainstream, “vaccinated” society.
They have been heavily discriminated against because of their decision to exercise their right to informed consent and refuse the administration of “genetic vaccines.”
Read the press release:
No Jab, Lower Hospitalizations — Finds International Survey
An international survey of a health-aware, “Control Group” that includes over 300,000 people who have chosen to avoid COVID-19 vaccination, shows participants place minimal burden on health systems through their strong reliance on natural immunity, self-care and the use of natural health supplements to help prevent or even treat COVID-19.
Yet this group faces unfounded discrimination, job losses and mental health issues intensified by its marginalization by mainstream society.
The survey of participants in the “Control Group” includes a sub-group from the over 305,000 participants from more than 175 countries who have joined the citizen-led project and opted to not receive COVID-19 vaccines.
The findings just uploaded to the preprint server ResearchGate, show that during the 5-month survey period (Sept. 2021 through to Feb. 2022 inclusive), participants suffered low rates of severe COVID-19 disease, were infrequently hospitalized, and used natural health products extensively both for prevention and for treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19.
Data from these first five months of the Control Group survey were analyzed and interpreted by an independent, international team led by Robert Verkerk Ph.D., a multi-disciplinary scientist and the founder, executive and scientific director of the non-profit Alliance for Natural Health International.
Co-authors included three practicing clinicians, Dr. Naseeba Kathrada from South Africa, Christof Plothe D.O. from Germany and Dr. Katarina Lindley from the USA.
The authors came together to assess the survey data through their collaboration in recent months with the World Council for Health, a non-profit, global coalition of health-focused organizations and civil society groups.
The survey findings were based on a sub-cohort of approximately 18,500 Control Group participants who had completed questionnaires on a monthly basis over the first five months of the survey.
Among the wide-ranging data collected, the survey captured reasons why participants avoided vaccines, with distrust of governments and pharmaceutical companies as well as concerns over adverse reactions from insufficiently tested vaccines being high on the list.
Participants reported extensive mental health problems that may have been compounded by the stigmatization and discrimination facing those who shunned COVID-19 vaccines.
It also found that women, despite being unvaccinated for COVID-19, suffered menstrual and bleeding abnormalities that may have been associated with viral exposure, shedding, spike protein exposure or pandemic-related behavioral changes. Those who never wore masks reported the lowest levels of COVID-19 disease.
Given the participants are self-selected and have self-reported, the survey findings need to be interpreted with care when comparing them with national statistics or studies based on randomly selected populations.
The U.K.-based Control Group project was established in mid-2021 as a citizen-led cooperative that aims to evaluate long-term health outcomes among the COVID-19 vaccine-free as well as linking its members to country support networks and online community groups.
Do recall that in August of 2021 the Secretary of Defense issued a mandate for members of the service to take the Covid-19 shots.
Those voluntarily taking the EUA’d shots prior to that date were considered “vaccinated” however, those who had not were ordered to take Comirnaty, the fully-licensed Pfizer vaccine.
This is because other than (perhaps) in a time of war the DOD cannot mandate something under EUA, and we are not in a declared war.
If you remember I have been challenging people to produce for me one vial of actually-licensed Covid-19 vaccine with the label and lot number on it. I issued this challenge at the time of the BLA approval and did so with a very specific purpose.
No such lot number and label/vial, nor a picture of same, has ever been sent to me.
In September a second memo issued claiming that the EUA’d and licensed shots were “interchangeable.” The FDA says otherwise, and they’re the authority on this. The DOD then proceeded against those who refused including separating refusing soldiers from service.
This suddenly, in June of this year, the ugly came into stark relief when it was reported in multiple venues that Pfizer has admitted publicly that it has neither made or shipped any doses of Comirnaty, nor will it.There is much debate over why but storage conditions appear to be part of the issue, in that work has continued to get around the supercold transport and storage requirement, which presents severe logistics concerns. First disclosed here from what I can determine, it’s clear that said disclosure made clear any claimed “doses”, at least in the US, did not exist — certainly not at the time of the DOD mandates and Pfizer’s stated intent appears to not manufacture or ship for US use as long as the EUAs existed. What’s left unsaid by Pfizer, but is clearly a very real part of their concern, is that since the jabs are not part of the childhood immunization schedule as a fully-licensed product Pfizer is on the hook for each and every injury caused by them because in order to obtain NCVIA protection it must be a childhood vaccine. They obviously have no reason (and so state in that disclosure!) to take that liability so long as the EUAs exist under which they do have immunity from lawsuits, never mind that EUA-produced items are also exempt from all manner of other regulatory process (such a GMP, etc.) there’s no reason for them to produce and sell the BLA-licensed version.
As it turns out the lot numbers appear to be authentic and it is reported they match valid lots from EUA’d production, which certainly appears to show that this was a deliberate act of fraud and, in the context of approved drugs, would facially appear to constitute a crime under 21 US Code Sec 352. What’s not clear is if anyone in the DOD can be nailed with criminal penalties for this, but anyone who was involved in shipping, procuring or otherwise moving them in interstate or international commerce should be able to be, and that is a felony carrying a penalty of three years in the can and a $10,000 fine.
Now maybe these reports are wrong — but coming from a Senator’s office one certainly has to give them some degree of credibility.
The fun is just getting started folks — exactly as I predicted it would.
Dr Paul Alexander..
Horowitz: “German insurance claims hint at millions of unreported COVID vaccine injuries”; Putting aside confounding factors, just to provide a rough estimate to open your mind to scope of problem,
…a 4.3% clinical level injury rate, if extrapolated for the 223 million vaccinated in the United Sates, would equal approximately 9.6 million injured Americans; data matches Israeli harms evidence
‘What if 1 in 23 individuals jabbed with the COVID bioproduct experienced an adverse reaction strong enough to trigger an insurance claim? Now consider the fact that 5.31 billion people in the world received at least one jab, with hundreds of millions receiving three or four jabs, and you will realize we are in uncharted waters in human history.
According to data from Techniker Krankenkasse, the largest German medical insurance company, there were a total of 437,593 insurance claims billed under the four diagnostic codes for vaccine injury in 2021. To put those numbers in perspective, the total numbers billed for a vaccine injury code in the two preceding years was 13,777 and 15,044, respectively. As the Daily Skeptic notes, given that TK insures 11 million people, that means 1 in 23, or 4.3%, had a medical treatment billed for vaccine injury. And that assumes all 11 million were vaccinated. The background vaccination rate in Germany is 78%, although most of the unvaccinated are children, so the rate of injury per vaccinated person is likely even higher (5.1%).
Putting aside confounding factors, but just to provide a rough estimate to open your mind to the scope of this problem, a 4.3% clinical level injury rate, if extrapolated for the 223 million vaccinated in the United Sates, would equal approximately 9.6 million injured Americans. While that number sounds unconscionable, remember that this data harmonizes almost perfectly with the Israeli health ministry survey that found a 4.5% rate of neurological side effects just from those who received booster shots (not total doses, which is likely more).
However, this data, and the extrapolation for the U.S. population, is even more credible when you look at the VAERS data. The total number of reported hospitalizations, urgent care visits, or doctor’s visits reported to VAERS (just for the U.S.) for the COVID shots as of Aug. 5 is 337,579.
An underreporting factor of roughly 28 would get you 9.6 million clinical-level injuries. Leading VAERS expert Dr. Jessica Rose estimated, using independent rates of anaphylaxis events from a Mass General study, an underreporting factor as high as 41 for serious adverse events in VAERS.
Obviously, vaccine injury billing codes, VAERS data for doctor visits, and the Israeli health ministry survey are not the exact same data point, but they all seem to coalesce around a rate of several percentage points of injury beyond the typical mild symptoms one would expect to experience from the shot. Moreover, we can actually independently verify the German billing data more precisely by using the same diagnostic codes for vaccine injury in the U.S. military. The four codes tabulated in the German TK billing data for 2021 are the following:
T.88.0: Infection following immunisation
T.88.1: Other complications after immunisation
U.12.9: Adverse effects after Covid-19 immunisation
Y.59.9: Complications due to vaccines or biological substances
I asked a source in the military with access to the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED) system to pull equivalent data on vaccine injury. While some of these codes did not come up, here is the data for T50.B95, “Adverse Effect of Other Viral Vaccine.”
endThese 6 studies showed us that there is (can be) harm (adverse effects) following use of these COVID vaccines; as time has gone on, you, I, we all know someone who got harmed or died post COVID shotDr. Paul AlexanderAug 21These 6 studies show that there is (can be) harm following use of these COVID vaccines, up to death as we have seen in adults and young persons in the CDC’s VAERS database, and as you read in the media; ensure you understand the benefits and the harms before agreeing to take these and under no condition, allow your children to be vaccinated with these vaccines. These COVID vaccines have failed on omicron and is non-neutralizing, and as such is driving infectious variants via placing the infectiousness of the virus (the spike) under selection pressure. This can also result in a more virulent strain. Today we see the vaccinated becoming infected and re-infected and it is due to the non-neutralizing vaccine binding to the omicron spike yet not neutralizing it.These 2 studies you should read by Fantini et al. and Liu et al. as it shows the mechanism whereby the vaccinal antibodies can bind yet not neutralize. Liu et al showed that some of antibodies against the N-terminal domain (NTD) do actually cause the open conformation of the receptor binding domain and as such enhanced the binding capacity of the spike protein to ACE2 and this enhanced infectivity of SARS-CoV-2.Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Subscribe nowLiu et al.: An infectivity-enhancing site on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein targeted by antibodiesYahi et al.: Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies recognize both the original Wuhan/D614G strain and Delta variants. A potential risk for mass vaccination?I am not anti-vax, yet I AM AGAINST these vaccines in children. But actually, this entire COVID insanity and these vaccines and the serious issues now make me read more and it raises many vaccine questions. Not just on COVID injections. There seems to be more profit involved in this area and vaccines are not properly safe. We have to educate ourselves and be willing to think.It is not my position to tell you what to do, I cannot, I am not your clinician, the decision is yours and with discussion with your doctor, but for my children, under no condition will they get these vaccines; if they have no risk like obesity or underlying medical conditions, no healthy child must get these vaccines, period! It can kill them. If a child has chronic serious conditions, then this should be discussed with your doctor. This is a high risk person and the risk-benefit calculation is different but I refer to healthy children which is the vast majority. Near all. It is a risk management decision now, with children having statistical zero risk of severe outcome or death from COVID, with a vaccine that has failed and is harmful and skews to harm. Children do not need it. Say No! Tell the CDC and NIH and Bourla to shove it!So if not at risk, I would not give them these shots (even if they have risk) and I would take them out of school and home school them. It will benefit them. Do not risk your child being disabled for the rest of life or even dying. Fauci, Walensky, Francis Collins, CDC, NIH, Biden, Azar, Trump, FDA, none of them, have liability. Trump did not move to provide protection to anyone. I do not understand why he is not clamoring for the children’s safety. All have been absolved and ‘only’ your child has liability. Your child could be harmed by these vaccines and they have no exposure, no liability. If they, Fauci et al. want your child vaccinated, demand they put liability protection they enjoy, on the table, and REMOVE it.Until then, tell them all to phuck off! All of them. Not one of them has prosecuted the case as to why statistical zero risk healthy children must be given a vaccine when they do not need it, and when the vaccine has harms as seen in the CDC’s and EUROPEAN surveillance systems (tens of thousands of deaths and millions of vaccine adverse events).The 6 studies are that show some risk of adverse effects post shot (and I just pulled some for my reading and not an exhaustive search):(here, here, here, here, here, and here)1) Mathioudakis et al., Krammer et al., Raw et al., Monforte et al, Menni et al., Efrati et al.These include fever, breathlessness, flu-like illness, fatigue, myalgia-arthralgia and lymphadenopathy, and local reactions. It is also associated with increased risk of severe side effects, leading to hospital care, local and systemic side effects, and long COVID. As seen in the news and also in CDC’s VAERS, there are tens of thousands of deaths immediately post vaccine and researchers show 85% of thee deaths linked direct to the vaccination. It is becoming routine where most people know someone, or heard of someone who has had adverse reactions and even death post vaccine.end Suggested over the counter (OTC) Nutraceuticals for PREVENTION & TREATMENT, adults and children (4-17 years old); several clinicians and scientists have put this OTC suggestion togetherDr. Paul AlexanderAug 20OTC Nutraceuticals for PREVENTION (scroll down for TREATMENT)ADULTSVitamin D, 3000-5000 IU per dayZinc, 25-50 mg per dayVitamin C, 1000-3000 IU per dayQuercetin, 500 mg per dayN-Acetyl Cysteine 500-650 mg dayCHILDREN AND TEENAGERS, AGES 12-17Vitamin D, 3000-5000 IU per dayZinc, 20 mg per dayVitamin C, 1000 IU per dayElderberry chewables, 100-150 mg per dayN-Acetyl Cysteine 500 mg dayCHILDREN AGES 4-11 (children under 4 are in danger of choking on chewable supplements)Vitamin D chewables, 2000-3000 IU per dayZinc chewables, 20 mg per dayVitamin C chewables, 1000 IU per dayElderberry chewables, 100-150 mg per dayOTC Nutraceuticals for TREATMENTADULTSVitamin D, 10,000 IU per dayZinc, 50 mg per dayVitamin C, 3000 IU per dayQuercetin, 1000 mg per dayN-Acetyl Cysteine, 650 mg dayBlack seed oil, 40-80 mg/kg per dayMelatonin, 3-5 mg per day, before bedtimeCHILDREN AND TEENAGERS, AGES 12-17Vitamin D, 3000-5000 IU per dayZinc, 20 mg per dayVitamin C, 1000 IU per dayElderberry chewables, 100-150 mg per dayN-Acetyl Cysteine, 500 mg dayBlack seed oil, 40-80 mg/kg per dayMelatonin, 1-5 mg per day, before bedtimeCHILDREN AGES 4-11 (children under 4 are in danger of choking on chewable supplements)Vitamin D chewables, 2000-3000 IU per dayZinc chewables, 20 mg per dayVitamin C chewables, 1000 IU per dayElderberry chewables, 100-150 mg per dayN-Acetyl Cysteine, 500 mg per dayBlack seed oil chewables, 40-80 mg/kg per dayMelatonin, 1-3 mg per day, before bedtimeSOURCE
Vaccine Impact
With The Chemical Imbalance Myth Exposed, That’s Not All Psychiatry Got Wrong
August 19, 2022 9:39 pm
Today, CCHR released its latest figures of global drug regulatory agency warnings about psychotropic drug risks, reporting a 34% increase in cautions about violence-related side effects and a 27% increase in self-harm and suicidal effects since June 2017. These figures raise questions about whether the psychiatric-pharmaceutical industry has been misleading consumers for the past 30 years about the potential violence- and suicide-inducing effects of psychotropic drugs, in the same way patients were deceived into believing that a chemical imbalance in the brain causes mental disorders, requiring the drugs to correct it. University College London (UCL) researchers recently disproved the decades-old theory that a brain-based chemical abnormality causes depression. Since the early 1990s, the industry has propagated this fabricated theory, while also denying the drugs used to “treat” it can induce violent and suicidal behavior. The official warnings have been issued by agencies such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and its counterparts in countries that include Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, European Union, New Zealand, and United Kingdom. Since June 2017, there was also a 112% increase in warnings about psychotropic drugs linked to addiction or withdrawal, a 32.5% in emotional problem warnings and a 19% rise in death or increased risk of death.
Half Of Companies Planning Layoffs Or Hiring Freezes: Survey
SATURDAY, AUG 20, 2022 – 09:55 AM
A concerning survey of 700 US executives reveals that half of them are either actively reducing headcount, or plan to – while 52% have implemented hiring freezes, according to Bloomberg.Image: Getty Images/iStockphoto
The survey, conducted last month by consultant PwC, also found that more than 40% of executives are rescinding job offers, while a similar amount are reducing or eliminating sign-on bonuses that were all the rage amid the tight job market just months ago.
On the bright side – around 2/3 of companies are boosting pay or expanding mental-health benefits, and 70% are planning to make remote work options permanent – though at the same time, 61% said they’re requiring staff to be on site more often – which can happen at the same time depending on the job (“Roles that don’t require much in-person collaboration could go remote for good, while other staffers could be required to get back to their desks a few times a week.”)
“Firms are playing offense and defense with their talent strategies,” According to PwC’s Bhushan Sethi, who noted that employers are weighing reputational damage and employee morale when considering layoffs. “People have long memories, and social media plays a much bigger role now.”
Bloomberg suggests that the findings illustrate “the contradictory nature of today’s labor market, where skilled workers can still largely name their terms amid talent shortages even as companies look to let people go elsewhere, particularly in hard-hit industries like technology and real estate.”
US job growth last month blew past economist estimates, while Labor Department data Thursday showed a drop in applications for unemployment insurance, suggesting demand for workers remains healthy. But layoffs and hiring freezes also are becoming more widespread, and not just at overheated tech startups that grew too fast. Oracle Corp., Walmart Inc. and Apple Inc. are among the big employers that have announced cutbacks in recent weeks. -Bloomberg
Withe fewer employees in offices, some organizations are looking to save on overhead – with more than 20% of those polled said they plan to decrease their investment in real estate. Conversely, 31% said they were boosting property investment.
end
There was never a question that cinemas would go under. Now the world’s second largest cinema chain with over 9,000 theatres are preparing for bankruptcy.
The reason for the failure is COVID and no blockbusters.
(zerohedge0
The World’s Second Largest Cinema Chain Is Preparing For Bankruptcy
SUNDAY, AUG 21, 2022 – 08:45 AM
Today in “ongoing collateral damage from the pandemic, helped along by the current recession” news…
The second largest cinema operator in the world, Cineworld, plunged in trading on Friday after it was reported that the company was preparing to file for bankruptcy. Trading in London, its stock was down over 60% by around lunchtime during Friday trading.
Cineworld, which also owns Regal Cinemas, has already hired advisors to begin laying out the bankruptcy process, WSJ first reported late last week. It is expected the company will file Chapter 11 in the U.S. and an insolvency proceeding in the U.K.
Cineworld operates 9,000 theaters in 10 countries, CNBC reported on Friday. It blamed its financial woes not only on the pandemic, but on a “lack of blockbusters” hurting admissions now that people are allowed back in theaters.
“Despite a gradual recovery of demand since re-opening in April 2021, recent admission levels have been below expectations,” the company said.
Box office sales are down 30% compared to pre-pandemic, the report notes. At the same time, there has been a double whammy for movie theaters, as 30% less films are being released directly to theaters, as streaming platforms have risen in popularity.
It had $8.9 billion in net debt at the end of 2021, compared to revenue of $1.8 billion. The company brought on two popular bankruptcy advisors, Kirkland & Ellis LLP and consultants from AlixPartners, to help advise on proceedings.
The announcement dragged down U.S. based theaters AMC and CNK in trade on Friday.
Are the “apes” paying attention yet?
Vaccine injury
end
MICHAEL EVERY//BILL BLAIN
Bill Blain…UK
Blain: What If We’re Looking At All The Wrong Things?
“Look not to the Sword waving around to your front, but the Stiletto threatening your kidneys..… “
Everyone is balancing inflation, economic numbers and this week’s Jackson Hole Central Bank schmooze-a-thon to guess markets. What if we are looking at the wrong things – and economic divergence, income and wealth inequality and unravelling domestic politics are the critical factors?
This week will apparently be all about inflation and deciphering new economic data to predict the path of the Global Economy and Stagflation risks. The big event will be the Jackson Hole central bank gabfest – anticipating what Jay Powell will say about the US Economy and the Fed’s perception of the required pace of rate hikes to counter inflation. His comments will have massive implications in terms of perceptions of bond markets, currencies, and company outlooks.
The ongoing battle vs Inflation has more than a few market watchers warning the July/August rally feels premature! Among the points that worry them is the reality of inflation numbers – even though the number (in the US) is apparently declining, it means prices are still rising and inflationary tension are still being stoked! It’s still unclear just how solid the short-recession rally is, or is it just a bear-trap?
More and more investors believe its policy mistakes – from the ultra-cheap interest rate policy of the 2010s, QE and government pandemic policies, to government failures to address critical responsibilities like energy security, that have created the best market opportunities in recent years. And they are absolutely right! The right way to have read markets is to game what central banks and governments are doing, and place your chips accordingly!
From 2010-2021 the simple trade was to buy everything and anything because money was mispriced by central banks, making even the most schizoid stock sound look relative value. Level 2 was to buy coal, oil and gas because ill-thought out polices and ESG wokery was creating chronic energy insecurity. What is Level 3? Work out what the next big series of policy mistakes are going to be… and I suspect it will mean playing central bank recovery policies – ie when real economic and wage inflation, global recession and economic unrest require them to press both monetary and fiscal easing.
When? Sooner than we think…
And to make it even more confusing… What if we are watching all the wrong things?
Perhaps it’s the not the US economy we should worry about this week?
While everyone is focused on inflation as the prime economic danger driving instability – what if it’s something else?
What if the major risks remain political miscalculations?
Economic Divergence
The UK, Europe and the US – the Occidental West, and China are all headed on different economic trajectories. While we can probably be relatively confident the US economy will bounce out of recession pretty quickly, allowing the Fed to normalise interest rates and look to stabilise its growing economy in what will be recessionary global economy (Buy Dollars), the outlook for Europe is dire. The UK? Let’s not even go there.
And China? Its easing rates. Change is coming. A rising economic crisis is brewing:
The jobs compact appears to be unravelling; the party quelled dissent and held power by providing everyone with well paid jobs – now the rising standard of living has plateaued, and young adult unemployment is rising.
The economy is overly grounded on the thin foundations of the unbalanced property market – over 30% of the economy is vulnerable to wealth-effect reversal, and
The Demographics are moving swiftly against the Middle Kingdom. We can discount China exporting deflation around the globe (as it did from 2000-2020).
As for Europe… As Gas prices threaten outages and crisis, Germany is still going to shutter its Nuclear plants this winter. That makes a ton of sense. Not.
Wages and Inequality
Meanwhile, back in Blighty… UK dockers have just started a potentially crippling container port strike that could exacerbate supply chain, logistics, and inevitably trigger empty shelves and a run on bog-roll. Damn these 1900 striking dock workers! How very dare they complain… Revolting just because they will see their post-tax disposable income cut by £2000 (say 10% of income) this year by rising energy bills… How dare they ask for more….! Ungrateful tykes, having being offered an exceptionally generous £500 one-off bung and an effective pay cut?
I don’t hear many folk outraged by news the average take-home pay of FTSE100 bosses has hit £3.4mm, up nearly 40%, according to the High-Pay think tank reported in the Times of London this morning. The top 224 FTSE executives earned £720 million in 2021. The Chief Exec of a mining firm trousered £23 million for CEO-ing its mining operations in havens of wealth like Burkina Faso – where I hear the local miners’ private health care packages are exceptional. (US readers – Sarcasm alert.)
Some folk clearly haven’t been listening to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s calls for pay restraint!
Much to my surprise, I was reading Young Conservatives (all six Tory party members under the age of 50), are disappointed Liz Sunak and Rishi Truss utterly failed to address the crisis in income inequality and the dearth of opportunity for young people in the Tory leadership whatever it is… coronation parade/contest?
Readers will not do doubt be surprised Dock Workers are unhappy with their pay cut offer. How can the nation possibly afford to give inflation busting wage rises to all key workers? If you pay the dockers, then the railwaymen will demand more! Even barristers are threatening strike action in pursuit of higher pay.
Unfortunately the drivers of wage inflation – be it FOMO, or relative income, or the perceived income injustices now perceived between older and younger workers – have already infected the whole economy. They are socio-economic forces that don’t give a fig for conventional political economy approaches. Solving them – will get messy.
How to solve or address out-of-control pandemic wage-inflation? I have simply no-idea – except that extraordinary times require extra-ordinary measures.. Hence I expect Governments will be forced to change tack and look at reflation in an inflationary environment.. Hang on to your hats…
I warned months ago the real danger of inflation is not just rising prices, or the difficulties it causes for both production costs and consumer affordability, but the unpredictable and potential chaotic social effects it could trigger. Rather than nations being able to grow their way out of a stagflationary crisis through job creation, an unexpected consequence will be worker scarcity: “why should I struggle into work on minimum wage, pay £1000 in monthly rent, have no savings, no holidays and no security, just so the bosses can have a great time?”
Politics
UK, German, Italian and US politics – watch them all. They all have a strong likelihood of spoiling your day in coming weeks. Bad politics have immediate and long-term consequences.
I am repeatedly told Donald Trump will not be the Republican Candidate in 2024, that too many Republicans now see through him, and the dismal showing of his candidates in US mid-term poling mean The Donald is set to cost his captured party potential majorities in the US Senate and Congress. The more I hear it, the more I fear it will happen – and the consequences for global trade, alliances, the environment, war, peace and everything will evaporate..
Yet, Trump is just another highly visible market risk. The issue is who and what is hiding in his coat-tails? Who are the US political names we don’t yet know who will emerge on the back of his philosophy in coming years to further bend and confound the US political process and its place on the world economy? Donald Trump may yet prove to have been a brilliant political figure, but only because he opened the door to legions of political wanabees much worse than himself!
My earnest hope is a return to sanity in Washington – but, as said so many times before – Hope is Not A Strategy. But Chaos is also opportunity!
This will cause major problems throughout the world:
(zerohedge)
US NatGas Hits 14-Year-High, EU Benchmarks Explode Higher
MONDAY, AUG 22, 2022 – 09:37 AM
US natural gas futures surged to a new 14-year high this morning as European prices spiked on Russia’s move to shut a major pipeline (for “planned maintenance”), sparking increased fears that demand for American exports of the heating and power-plant fuel will soar when Freeport’s LNG Terminal comes back online in October.
Additionally, the next few months of the US NatGas curve are in contango with November 2022, December 2022, and January 2023 all traded above $10 this morning…
In Europe, benchmark gas futures rose as much as 20% to new record highs…
…driving electricity prices to fresh records, topping EUR700/mWh for the first time ever…
As Bloomberg reports, the key Nord Stream pipeline will stop for three days of maintenance on Aug. 31, again raising concerns that the conduit won’t restart as planned after the work.
“Whether the reasoning is true or not, the outcome drives a European gas market that tightens further, and one that is left reliant on demand curtailments to find itself in balance,” said Biraj Borkhataria, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
“The market may disregard Gazprom’s comments and start to consider whether the pipeline may not return to service, or at the very least may be delayed for any given reason.”
European authorities have repeatedly warned of the possibility of a total shutdown of Russia supplies as Moscow retaliates for sanctions imposed because of its invasion of Ukraine.
“The catastrophe is already there,” Thierry Bros, a professor in international energy at Sciences Po in Paris, said.
“I think the major question is when EU leaders are going to wake up.”
Finally, some context for what all this means.
EU NatGas is trading at an oil equivalent price of $500 per barrel and while EU NatGas is at 14 year highs (around $167 per barrel equiv), Europe’s cost is triple that!!
Both of which would suggest a very significant pressure for producers to transition from gas to crude as source. For now, oil prices are down on more Iran ‘deal’ headlines.
END
Oil Spikes After Saudi Prince Hints At Shift In OPEC+ Strategy
It appears that Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has finally recognized this as an issue.
The implicit leader of OPEC said “extreme” volatility and lack of liquidity in the futures market are disconnecting prices from fundamentals and may force OPEC+ to act.
“The paper and physical markets have become increasingly more disconnected,” he said in response to written questions from Bloomberg News.
While futures prices are tumbling, in the physical realm, inventories of energy and metals continue to fall from already uncomfortably low levels as demand remains above supply in all cyclical commodities, except iron ore. Timespreads, the single most accurate measure of underlying fundamentals, trade at unprecedented levels of backwardation, irrespective of the price sell-off.
Prince Abdulaziz said futures prices don’t reflect the underlying fundamentals of supply and demand, which may require the group to tighten production when it meets next month to consider output targets.
“Witnessing this recent harmful volatility disturb the basic functions of the market and undermine the stability of oil markets will only strengthen our resolve,” he said.
These headlines sent the front-month WTI future rebounding from the ‘Iran deal imminent’ plunge…
As we noted previously, Goldman was all over this disconnect and has been buying every barrel of oil it can find…
“this latest commodity sell-off is completely delinked from physical fundamentals and driven by financial liquidation.”
In a response to questions from Bloomberg, Prince Abdulaziz responded in writing:
Will OPEC+ have to respond?
In OPEC+ we have experienced a much more challenging environment in the past and we have emerged stronger and more cohesive than ever. OPEC+ has the commitment, the flexibility, and the means within the existing mechanisms of the Declaration of Cooperation to deal with such challenges and provide guidance including cutting production at any time and in different forms as has been clearly and repeatedly demonstrated in 2020 and 2021.
Soon we will start working on a new agreement beyond 2022 which will build on our previous experiences, achievements, and successes. We are determined to make the new agreement more effective than before. Witnessing this recent harmful volatility disturb the basic functions of the market and undermine the stability of oil markets will only strengthen our resolve.
But what about the fist-bump?
8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS
end
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM
Euro/USA 0.9997 DOWN 0.0032 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED
USA/ YEN 137.00 UP 0.233 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…
GBP/USA 1.1792 DOWN 0.0026
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 19.72 POINTS OR .61%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 116.05 PTS OR 0.59%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.97% // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 116.05 PTS OR 0.59%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.72 PTS OR 0.61%
Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.97%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 135.83 OR 0.047%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1730.90
silver:$18.87
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 108.33 UP 23 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.8487
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8742
TURKISH LIRA: 18.08 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.220
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 3.024% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.263 UP 4 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 108.92 UP 81 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 20.96 PTS OR 0.28%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 324.02 POINTS OR 2.39%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 126.72 PTS OR 1.95%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 66.20 OR 0.79%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 408.13 PTS OR 1.81%
WTI Oil price 87.53 12: EST
Brent Oil: 94.79 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 59.73 DOWN 0 AND 64/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.300
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 0.9938 DOWN .0091 OR 91 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.1756 DOWN .0061 or 61 basis pts
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 177.46 UP 0.687//YEN DOWN 69 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3054 UP 0.0031 (CDN dollar, DOWN 31 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 90.67
Brent OIL: 96.71
USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.031 UP 4 points
USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.239 UP 1 pts
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.08
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 59,87 down 0 AND 77/100 ROUBLES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 643.13 PTS OR 1.91 %
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 352.56 PTS OR 2.60%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 23.80 DOWN 3.20 PTS (5.83)%
GLD: $161.64 DOWN $1.09 OR 0.67%
SLV/ $17.50 DOWN 5 CENTS OR 0.28%
end)
USA trading day in Graph Form
Stocks & Bonds Slammed As Market Reprices Rate-Hike Trajectory Ahead Of J-Hole
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, AUG 22, 2022 – 04:00 PM
Anxiety over what J-Pow will say at J-Hole on Friday is manifesting in multiple markets…
Rate-hike expectations are back at their highest since the ECB chaos in July (and rate-cut expectations have tightened too)…
Source: Bloomberg
US equities extended their recent weakness today with Nasdaq the ugliest horse in the glue factory (futs were sold at the Asia open, EU open, and US open)…
Nasdaq is now down 6% from its rebound highs…
And the S&P is down over 200 points since we advised investors of BofA’s Michael Hartnett’s call to “start shorting now”…
And all the majors continue to push back down towards their 100DMAs (blue line) after rejecting their 200DMAs (green line)…
Hedge funds continued to press shorts today with Goldman’s “Most Shorted” basket now down a stunning 18% from last Tuesday’s highs…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX spiked back above 24 today…
Treasury yields were all higher on the day with the long-end outperforming (and the curve flattening/inverting further)…
Source: Bloomberg
10Y Yields topped 3.00% again today, for the first time since July 21st…
Source: Bloomberg
Real rates have been a one-way street higher since touching 0.0% on Aug 2nd…
Source: Bloomberg
Time for stock multiples to re-compress again…
Source: Bloomberg
Euro crashed to its weakest against the dollar since 2002 (dropping below July’s lows)…
Source: Bloomberg
Sending the DXY (dollar index) to its highest close since June 2002…
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos traded sideways to down today with Bitcoin finding support at $21,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold extended its losses below $1800 today as the dollar soared…
Oil prices dumped (on Iran Deal hope) and pumped (on OPEC+ production cut hints) to end higher on the day…
US NatGas front-month neared $10 today, hitting its highest since 2002…
For context, European NatGas is trading at $500 per barrel…
And before we leave commodity land, here’s a look at European 1-year-ahead electricity prices…
Source: Bloomberg
Hyperinflation much?
Finally, we note that the 2008 analog continues to play out…
Source: Bloomberg
Is a reality check in order?
Source: Bloomberg
It’s different this time…
I) / EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//
ii) USA DATA//
iii)USA economic commentaries
iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues/
END
end
SWAMP STORIES
King report
The King Report August 22, 2022 Issue 6827
Independent View of the News
German PPI for July jumped to 5.3% m/m and 37.2% y/y; 0.7% m/m and 31.8% were expected.
@NorthstarCharts: German Producer Prices Index. After a (very slight) dip last month, this month’s figures are taking us off the chart. Something horrendous is happening right in front of our eyes. https://twitter.com/NorthstarCharts/status/1560598977619193862
Germany Risks a Factory Exodus as Energy Prices Bite Hard Deteriorating living standards could bring ‘social unrest’ Relentless increases may change Europe’s industrial landscape Power and gas prices in Germany more than doubled in just two months, with year-ahead electricity — a benchmark for the continent — soaring to 570 euros ($573) per megawatt hour. Two years ago, it was 40 euros… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-19/germany-risks-a-factory-exodus-as-energy-prices-bite-hard#xj4y7vzkg
@RobinBrooksIIF: The Euro zone is in trouble. It had one growth engine – Germany – and that growth engine is now in serious trouble, as it was predicated on cheap Russian energy. That’s over. What’s left are massive trade deficits, less growth & less room to help those with huge debt overhangs https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1560637279399358465
Economist @tashecon: Epic policy miscalculation by Germany’s political and business establishment coming back to haunt them. They thought they could trust Putin the war criminal…
What will happen to Germany, and other European nations, when winter arrives? What if winter weather is severe? On Friday, EU natural gas traded at a record high because Gazprom said it will halt gas flows via Nord Stream on Aug. 31 thru Sept. 2 for planned maintenance at the Portovaya compressor station.
US natural gas hit 9.36, the highest level since the 7/2008 energy inflation peak (Beijing Olympics).
ESUs traded modestly lower during early Asian trading. ESUs and stocks began a decline during latter Asian trading the gradually worsened until a bottom appeared near the US repo market open at 7 ET.
ESUs and stocks then traded modestly higher until the conditioned rally for the NYSE open pushed ESUs 19 handles higher from their low. The rally peaked at 9:34 ET. Fundamental sellers then overwhelmed conditioned buyers. ESUs and stocks tumbled until daily lows appeared at 11:09 ET. Trading sardines, particularly Fangs and techs, led the decline. Traders were long too many Fang August options.
The European close rally, to embellish ‘marks’ ahead of the weekend, developed. The moderate rally ended at 12:54 ET. ESUs and stocks then rolled over; a slow, plodding decline materialized.
ESUs and stocks hit new lows at 14:55 ET. By 15:00 ET, ~1.2 million SPY August calls had traded for the 422 thru 426 strikes. About the same number of SPY August puts from 420 thru 426 strikes had traded. ESUs hit a bottom near 15:10 ET; a 16-handle ESU rally ended at 15:51 ET.
The dollar soared; so, precious metal declined smartly.
Meanwhile, back at Rancho Bondos, USUs hit -2 7/32 by 11:16 ET. Mr. Bond was very unhappy with the dire German July PPI because it indicates the Inflation Genie will not disappear any time soon.
Quant funds support market rally by ramping up bets on US stocks Nomura estimates that trend-following hedge funds and volatility-control funds have purchased $107bn of global stock futures since markets hit a low in late June, with a large portion of that used to close short positions… https://www.ft.com/content/a1b68d5d-bba5-4552-ac8b-6d71152cf961
Half of US companies preparing to cut jobs, survey shows Majority of US companies implementing hiring freezes as economic outlook darkens PwC…last month polled more than 700 U.S. executives and board members from various industries. About half of respondents said they are preparing to reduce headcount — or already have — while 52% have implemented hiring freezes. On top of that, roughly 46% of companies are either dropping or reducing signing bonuses, which became commonplace over the past year as businesses tried to lure in new workers amid an increasinglytight labor market. Another 44% are rescinding offers entirely, the survey showed… https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/half-us-companies-preparing-cut-jobs-survey-shows
Something is Looming Geopolitically, and We Better Start Taking It Seriously As a result of western governments’ taking collective action under the auspices of a ‘climate change’ agenda, we are on the cusp of something happening with ramifications that no one has ever seen before. Western governments, specifically western Europe, North America (U.S-Canada) and Australia/New Zealand, are intentionally trying to lower economic activity to meet the intentional drop in energy production. This is the core consequence of the Build Back Better agenda as promoted by the World Economic Forum…There is no precedent for nations’ collectively and intentionally trying to reduce economic activity… The political policymakers are attempting to manage this process without informing the citizens of the unspoken goal. Shortages of oil, coal and natural gas are self-inflicted problems, all part of the BBB agenda… What happens geopolitically, even militarily, when the entire global economy starts to feel the impacts from western nation economic contraction on a scale -created by collective action- that has never been seen before…someone needs to start talking about, and seriously challenging, the big picture consequence of this Build Back Better future, before it’s too late. https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/08/18/something-is-looming-geopolitically-and-we-better-start-taking-it-seriously/
Positive aspects of previous session Moderate last-hour equity rally related to expiration
Negative aspects of previous session Inflation and recession angst, courtesy of Germany, reappeared Stocks sank; bonds got hammered; the dollar rallied sharply
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the summer rally over?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4237.83 Previous session High/Low: 4266.31; 4218.70
Ron Klain and Susan Rice (De facto POTUS) Take the Lead as Joe Biden Disappears on Vacation They appear to have no interest in putting the president in front of a camera…. White House chief of staff Ron Klain briefed Politico’s Playbook on Friday with their August messaging effort, which is underway without the president. “I definitely get more done when he’s not here,” Klain bragged. “No question about it.”… https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/08/20/ron-klain-susan-rice-take-lead-joe-biden-disappears-vacation/
Reuters:Dicey markets forced Goldman Sachs and peers to take a hit on $80 billion of buyout loans that got stuck on their balance sheets. Calmer conditions mean the worst may be over. But the trauma adds to the case for job cuts, writes @LiamWardProud
Banks’ LBO debt hangover may leave lasting scars The buyout boom years, fueled by cheap debt, may be over. Private equity investors like pension funds are cutting their exposure to the asset class at a record pace. And private lenders are displacing banks. Banks raked in $7.8 billion last year from arranging buyouts, which was 50% above the 2017 to 2019 average according to Dealogic.https://t.co/pnIdjfC7Ze
@VivekGRamaswamy: A vocal asset manager cannot properly represent U.S. clients when advocating for ESG constraints on corporate America, while also managing Chinese money and *not* applying those ESG limits to China… @SquawkCNBC: “What we need is a competitive market. There’s no God given right for any firm to manage $10 trillion when there are diverse interests that need to be represented,” says @VivekGRamaswamy. “What these ESG critics have done in the US is contributed to a massive energy crisis.”https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1560611190086172672
GOP Rep. @Jim_Jordan: Businesses can’t find workers. Now, schools can’t find substitute teachers. But we shouldn’t be surprised. When the government pays people not to work, it’s hard to find workers!
The Big Guy has been POTUS for 19 months; he’s taken 5 months of all expenses-paid vacations.
WSJ: If Your Co-Workers Are ‘Quiet Quitting,’ Here’s What That Means (US productivity?) Some Gen Z professionals are saying no to hustle culture; ‘I’m not going to go extra’ The idea is to stay on it—but focus your time on the things you do outside of the office… Across generations, U.S. employee engagement is falling, according to survey data from Gallup, but Gen Z and younger millennials, born in 1989 and after, reported the lowest engagement of all during the first quarter at 31%. Jim Harter, chief scientist for Gallup’s workplace and well-being research, said workers’ descriptions of “quiet quitting” align with a large group of survey respondents that he classifies as “not engaged”—those who will show up to work and do the minimum required but not much else. More than half of workers surveyed by Gallup who were born after 1989—54%—fall into this category… https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-your-gen-z-co-workers-are-quiet-quitting-heres-what-that-means-11660260608
97% of execs say we’re in a recession or headed toward one, Stifel survey finds The study also found inflation and the tight labor market represent the two biggest perceived threats to running a business today… https://t.co/QMcJZRVTNy
ECB’s Nagel Wants More Hikes, Says German Recession Likely (if the energy situation escalates)Bundesbank chief won’t put number on September rate increaseJoachim Nagel comments in interview with Rheinische Post“Given high inflation, further interest-rate hikes must follow,” Nagel told Rheinische Post in an interview, declining to put a number on what he expects for the next decision in September. “The past few months have shown that we have to decide on monetary policy from meeting to meeting.”… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-20/ecb-s-nagel-wants-more-rate-hikes-says-german-recession-likely
@RNCResearch: Biden Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm: “If you are low-income, you can get your home entirely weatherized” to help deal with 40-year high inflation. “You can get 30% off the price of solar panels.” (You can’t make this up!) https://twitter.com/BuckSexton/status/1561441808063684608?s=02
Today – After expiry weeks that were strong early and weak late, due to retail traders’ gluttonous buying of calls options, Monday rallies have appeared. Over $2 trillion of August options expired on Friday.
This is Jackson Hole Week. Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook on Friday, Aug. 26, (10 ET) at the KC Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Wise guys and saner angels resolutely believe that Powell must use his Friday speech to atone for his neutral rate gaffe. Tis why ESUs are -24.00 at 20:00 ET instead of trading higher on buying for the usual Monday rally.
Expected economic data: July Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.25
Donald Trump Hints at Fourth Amendment Violation in Mar-a-Lago ‘Break-In’ “A major motion pertaining to the Fourth Amendment will soon be filed concerning the illegal Break-In of my home, Mar-a-Lago, right before the ever important Mid-Term Elections… It should not be allowed to continue!”… https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-hints-fourth-amendment-violation-mar-lago-break-1735360
BIDEN BUILDS THE WALL: The Department of Homeland Security awarded a Delaware company $490,000 to build a fence at the president’s home. https://fxn.ws/3CdC5Hb
@seanmdav: McConnell would rather lose the Senate than win with primary candidates he tried to knife. That’s why he’s having a temper tantrum(Averring that the GOP might not take the Senate because of weak candidates) right now instead of doing his job. The truth is he wants every GOP nominee to be another Liz Cheney rather than someone responsive to GOP voters.
WaPo: McConnell’s grim 2022 expectations-setting – “I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” McConnell said, according to NBC News. “Senate races are just different — they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”… https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/18/mcconnell-expectations-senate-midterms/
Come On, Mitch McConnell, Republicans Need You to Step Up and Lead As the top elected Republican in the country, Mitch McConnell has an obligation to immediately and dramatically improve his performance. The media and others on the left were of course thrilled with the Republican leader’s “notable quotable” disparagement of Republican candidates and the voters who chose them, which somehow came off even worse on video. What was McConnell thinking? What in the world was he thinking?… The country is 18 months into Democrats’ total rule, and by nearly every measure the results of their political control are utterly disastrous…It is political malpractice to pout and run them — and the voters who selected them — down… McConnell, who is unfortunately quite politically unpopular, should be taking every opportunity to sing their praises and push a unifying and expansive message nationally. McConnell’s current leadership strategy of having Republicans either help Democrats pass legislation or not really try to stop it, seems unwise. One voter called his legislative approach this Congress a “voter enthusiasm killing spree.”… at this moment, McConnell simply must be a better leader… He should motivate and energize the Republican voters while reaching out to those who can be persuaded to become Republican voters. He should learn how to fight the left-wing media that daily seek Republicans’ destruction, rather than kowtowing to them… https://thefederalist.com/2022/08/19/come-on-mitch-mcconnell-republicans-need-you-to-step-up-and-lead/
Trump calls McConnell a ‘broken down hack’ after he doubted GOP chances in 2022 “Why do Republicans Senators allow a broken-down hack politician, Mitch McConnell, to openly disparage hard working Republican candidates for the United States Senate,” Trump said on his Truth Social media site late Saturday… (Cuz Mitch’s candidates lost in the primaries!) https://trib.al/bCSV52M
Tucker Carlson: If Republicans focused on law and order, there would be a red wave Tucker Carlson voices concerns over rising crime COVID wasn’t the worst thing ever to happen to America and over time, people figured that out. They warned they had been lied to and that’s one of the reasons so many Americans now hate politicians. They’re tired of the lying and it’s the very same reason that voters will tend to reward any candidate who tells the truth about what is actually happening and what actually matters… Cities around the country have effectively decriminalized stealing… stealing quickly metastasized into looting and then social collapse…Joe Biden’s Justice Department will never say a word about what they did. Criticizing theft is an offense against equity, but that’s happening… Why isn’t every Republican candidate in the nation running ads with that footage in it?… Starbucks just closed 16 stores nationwide because of increasing theft. It’s going unpunished. Target has reduced its operating hours in six San Francisco stores. They used to close at 10 so people could buy stuff after work. Now they’re going to close at 5. Why? Because of crime, stealing. Walgreens shut down 17 stores altogether. Stores now losing an average of $45 million a day because of theft. What does that add up to? The disintegration of society…Joe Biden’s DOJ has done nothing to stop the crime wave and so it is accelerating everywhere… Disorder leads to violence every single time. We’ve seen this movie repeatedly, and once violence begins and the state does nothing to stop it, in fact, in some cases encourage it, what happens then? People become desperate and left with no other choice, they take the law into their own hands. That is already happening… The Biden administration is constantly lecturing you about civil rights. Crime is the most basic violation of civil rights and they’re doing nothing. If they cared, instead of sending tens of billions of dollars to corrupt oligarchs in Ukraine, more money for Zelenskyy, maybe they could send the money to immigrant convenience store owners for security, but they’re not. They could investigate the prosecutors who are refusing to enforce the law in violation of our Constitution and their oaths of office. That would be a start, but they’re not doing that either… If every Republican office-seeker, every Republican candidate in the United States focused on law and order and equality under the law, there would be a red wave. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-republicans-focused-law-order-red-wave
@Athan_K: By a 3-1 margin, Republicans prefer “Happy family but just getting by” over “well-off but single.” Democrats are pretty much evenly split. This is the cultural wedge dividing us. This is where the new American majority will be found. This is everything. https://twitter.com/Athan_K/status/1560959312595410944 @JackPosobiec: This is a powerful understanding of what’s going on in America.
Former Pentagon boss: Delay in Afghanistan after-action reports raises fear of political meddling “There’s probably some concern that it doesn’t paint the rosy picture that the Biden administration has said… I understand is [the report] has been kicked back down to those that wrote it because of some sort of concern… But I can tell you that lessons learned and after-action reviews save lives. And we’re not seeing that right now,”… Asked why there’s a delay Miller added: “I have to think that there’s probably some concern that it doesn’t paint the rosy picture that the Biden administration has said.”… https://justthenews.com/government/security/former-pentagon-boss-delay-afghanistan-after-action-reports-raises-fear
GOP Sen. @tedcruz: One of the biggest scandals in the history of the FBI is their Gretchen Whitmer entrapment misconduct. And what’s happened since then? The guy who was in charge of the FBI’s Detroit field office is now in charge of the January 6 investigation. https://bit.ly/3pnmFIO You’d think this would be really high on the FBI’s priority list: getting to the bottom of the pipe bombs that were planted at the RNC and DNC offices. It’s been almost 2 years and yet we know nothing about the bomber. I discuss with @michaeljknowles on the latest. https://t.co/Yi0EEtBKgw
Former CIA Director Agrees GOP Is Most ‘Dangerous’ Group Around — Which Explains a Lot According to the Washington Post, our nation’s allies doubted U.S. intelligence that Russia would invade Ukraine due to several previous failings like “emphatic U.S. claims about intelligence on Iraq.” Others felt that President Joe Biden and the Pentagon “had vastly overestimated the resilience of Afghanistan’s government as the U.S. military was withdrawing” only to have the government collapse within days as the Taliban took over with ease. “American intelligence is not considered to be a naturally reliable source,” François Heisbourg, a security expert and veteran advisor to French officials told The Post. “It was considered to be prone to political manipulation.”… Hayden was one of the 51 members of the vaunted intelligence community who signed a letter saying that the New York Post’s 2020 story about Hunter Biden’s infamous laptop — which has since been verified — was Russian disinformation… https://www.dailywire.com/news/really-former-cia-director-agrees-gop-is-most-dangerous-group-around-which-explains-a-lot
Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter says, “nothing is getting better” and points out the proof is everywhere that we are clearly headed for a financial calamity, the likes of which we have never seen before. Holter, who is also a precious metals broker, is seeing a big pick-up in business because big money is looking for a place to hide in the physical world. Holter explains, “We are getting more orders and larger orders. I think this is natural because I think people know something is wrong, and when something is wrong, you want to get defensive. I think people are finally making the connection the world is in the process of bankrupting, and you want your capital in something that cannot bankrupt. By definition, that is gold and silver.”
Holter says evil is trying to take over everywhere. Holter contends, “The consensus is the fact that we have a 2nd Amendment and we still have guns here is the only reason they have not snapped the trap shut yet. The United States is ‘the last bastion.’ Just look at Australia. Look at New Zealand. Look at Canada. Look at Britain. Can you have guns there? No, they have taken them away. What did they do? They forced the population into lockdown. They forced the population to get the jab. The result is you are going to see the West vastly depopulated and degraded in the next 1, 2 or 5 years. They have total control over their population. Whereas, that is not the case yet in the U.S.”
Holter has long said when the overloaded debt system breaks, it will break “fast and ugly.” “Credit will dry up overnight,” and “The world runs on credit,” according to Holter. His math shows a dark time ahead even for the prepared. Holter explains, “All you have to do is wake up in the morning and read the news, and you know it has gotten worse than the day before. That’s day after day. I have talked about ‘Mad Max’ for several years. When I first started talking about it, I got all kinds of grief, and they called me a nut case. It is certainly looking more and more now as the likely scenario. It just goes back to the West and, including China, it is not in the West, but it too is extremely levered (or indebted). When you over-lever a financial system, you over-lever an economy. At some point, the only thing that can happen is something bad. It’s either default or hyperinflation of the currency to pay the debt back. As far as timing, I would be shocked if we make it through the end of this year and people would still consider the system normal.”
When the system does break, that’s when it turns “ugly.” Holter explains, “As far as how are things going to work when this thing goes down? My question would be is anything going to work? Will your bank be open? Will your broker be open? Will there be a store open or a restaurant or any place to buy goods? That gets back to Jim Sinclair’s ‘Get out of the System’ (GOTS). Become your own central banker. Stock up on the things you think you are going to need. Is it going to last two weeks or two years? It could last two years. One thing for sure, our life in the United States is going to be drastically changed to a lower standard of living. . . . You are watching the breakdown in real time.”
There is much more in the 41 min interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter of JSMineset.com for 8.20.22.
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