SEPT 8//QUEEN ELIZABETH II DIED THIS MORNING AT AGE 96//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $6.10 TO $1709.60//SILVER CLOSED UP 16 CENTS TO $18.50//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $14.45 TO $882.65//PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $96.45 TO $2143.20//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//EUROPE UPDATES RE ENERGY CRISIS//UK’S PRIME MINISTER TRUSS REVEALS HER PLAN TO SAVE THE COUNTRY FROM ITS ENERGY SHOCK//ECB RAISES ITS RATE BY 75 BASIS POINTS//AUSTRALIA ALREADY PIVOTS TO STOP RAISING ITS INTEREST RATE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

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GOLD;  $1709.60 DOWN $6.10 

SILVER: $18.50 UP 16 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1708.50

SILVER: $18.53

Bitcoin morning price:  $19,298 UP 169

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,198 UP 69

Platinum price closing UP $14.45 AT $882.65

Palladium price; closing UP $96.45  at $2143.20

END

DONATE

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,715.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/07/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/09/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


132 C SG AMERICAS 35
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 39
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN 249
690 C ABN AMRO 9
709 C BARCLAYS 360
737 C ADVANTAGE 8 21
800 C MAREX SPEC 2 5
905 C ADM 7


TOTAL: 370 370
MONTH TO DATE: 2,464

JPMorgan stopped:   249/370

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  

159 NOTICES FOR 27,000 OZ //0.8398 TONNES

total notices so far: 2464 contracts for 246,400 oz (7,6680 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 39 NOTICES FILED FOR 195,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  5987 :  for 29,935,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGESIN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////

INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.16

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 467.419 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A GOOD SIZED 609  CONTRACTS TO 137,691.   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.34 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.34) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 161 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,; WE HAD HUGE  SPECULATOR LIQUIDATION.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE/  SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 170,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//CONSIDERABLE SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: –20

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 5 days, total 5491  contracts:  27.455 million oz  OR 5.491 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1098 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 27,455  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 27.455 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 609 DESPITE OUR  $0.34 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 740 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS A// HUGE SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 170,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 131 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 0.655 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 39  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  195,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 1639 CONTRACTS  TO 464,269 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:–49   CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $13.70//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND /STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  STRONG JUMP OF 26,100 OZ //NEW STANDING 12.3390 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF  $13.70 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 186  OI CONTRACTS 0.578 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1825  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 464,269

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 186 CONTRACTS  WITH 1639 CONTRACTS  DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1825 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 186 CONTRACTS OR 0,7307 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1825) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1639): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 186 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 26,100 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

12,847 CONTRACTS OR 1,284,700 OZ OR 39.96  TONNES 5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2569 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 39.96 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  39,96/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.12% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 39.96 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 609 CONTRACT OI TO 137,691 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 740 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 740  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  740 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 609  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 740 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 131   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.655 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GOOD GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.34

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

  SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10,71 PTS OR 0.33%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 189.68 OR 1.09%    /The Nikkei closed UP 634.98 OR 2.31%.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.81%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.9513//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.9530//    /Oil DOWN TO 82.52  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 88.52    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 1639 CONTRACTS TO 464,318 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $13.70  IN GOLD PRICING  WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1825 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1825 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :1825 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1825 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 186  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1825 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1639  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $13.70.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT   (12.3390),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  12.3390 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $13.70) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS COVERED SOME OF  THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED GAIN  OF 0.578 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (12.3390 TONNES)

WE HAD -49  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 235 CONTRACTS OR 23,500  OZ OR 0.7307 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 183,937///  poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  187,486/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 8

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz160,589.703 oz


Brinks 
JPMorgan  includes
(12 kilobars)  


Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 60,285.766 oz
Manfra
No of oz served (contracts) today270   notice(s)
27000  OZ
0.8398 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1503 contracts 
150,300 oz
4.6749 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month2464 notices
246400 OZ
7,6649 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

i) Into Malca:  60,285.766 oz

total deposits 60,285.766 oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks 385.710 (12 kilobars)

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  160,203.893 oz

total:  160,203.893 oz   

total in tonnes: 4.996 tonnes

Adjustments: 2

Brinks  67,517.100 oz dealer to customer

and Loomis:  4822.65  oz dealer to customer

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an  oi of 1773 contracts having GAINED 102 contracts .

We had 159 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we  gained A WHOPPING 261 contracts or an additional 26,100 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.

October LOST 327 contracts DOWN to 42,376 

November GAINED 0 contracts to stand at 6

December LOST 2028 contracts DOWN to 377,245.

We had 270 notice(s) filed today for 27000 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 270 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 249 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2464) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT 1773 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 270 x 100 oz per contract equals 396,700 OZ  OR 12.3390 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON  active month of SEPT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2464) x 100 oz+   (1773)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (270} x 100 oz} which equals 396,700 oz standing OR 12.3390 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  12.3390 TONNES  (A GREAT STANDING FOR A SEPT (   NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,393,976.741 oz   74.462 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  27,529,478.157 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,571,946.547  OZ (422.14 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,957,531.610 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 11,177,970. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 347.68 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 8

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory2,073,923.178 oz
CNT
BRINKS
JPMORGAN
MANFRA






 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 822,996.680 oz
Delaware


 
No of oz served today (contracts)39 CONTRACT(S)
195,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)279 contracts 
(1,395,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)5987 contracts
 29,935,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  3  deposits into the customer account
i) Into Delaware  162,565.400 o

ii) Into HSBC 59,460.150 oz

iii) Into Loomis:  600,871.130 oz 

total deposit:  822,996.650   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 168.128 million oz/324.265million =51.85% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:4

i) Out of CNT:  813,326.610 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 100,734,000 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan:  574,473.890 oz

iv) Out of Manfra:  585,428.678 oz

total: 2,073,963.178    oz

 adjustments: 2/dealer to customer

Brinks 608,749.82  oz

and HSBC 567,428.800 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 46.273 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 324.265 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 318 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 32 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

66 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 34 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

170,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER LOST 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 676 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED 0 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 12

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 838 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 124,838

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 39 for  195,000 oz

Comex volumes:46.682// est. volume today//   poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 76,669 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  5987 x 5,000 oz = 29,935,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(102) and the number of notices served upon today 39  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 5,987 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (102)  – number of notices served upon today (39) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 31,330,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 46.273 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 31.330 MILLION OZ represents 67.700% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:49,341// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 51,749 contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

  AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES  

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 971.05 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

  AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//  

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4  WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 467.419 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Inflation Is State-Sponsored Terrorism

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 10:36 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Americans have been laboring under the burden of inflation for well over a year. We feel the pain everywhere, from the gas pump to the grocery store. Once it became impossible to sell the “inflation is transitory” narrative any longer, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to fight inflation. As a result, the bubble economy is getting shaky. But even some people at the Fed seem to realize this is a fight they can’t win.

In a talk at the Ron Paul Institute, Mises Institute president Jeff Deist called inflation “state-sponsored terrorism.”

Inflationism is both a fiscal and monetary regime, but its consequences go far beyond economics. It has profound social, moral, and even civilizational effects. And understanding how it terrorizes us is the task today.”

Following is a transcript of Deist’s talk.

The following article was originally published by the Mises Wire. The opinions expressed are the author’s and don’t necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

I. Introduction

Remember the quaint old days of 2019? We were told the US economy was in great shape. Inflation was low, jobs were plentiful, GDP was growing. And frankly, if covid had not come along, there is a pretty good chance Donald Trump would have been reelected.

At an event in 2019, my friend and economist Dr. Bob Murphy said something very interesting about the political schism in this country. He said: If you think America is divided now, what would things look like if the economy was terrible? If we had another crash like 2008?

Well, we might not have to imagine such a scenario much longer.

If you think Americans are divided today, and at each other’s throats—metaphorically, but more and more literally—imagine if they were cold and hungry!

Imagine if we had to live through something like Weimer Germany, Argentina in the 1980s, Zimbabwe in the 2000s, or Venezuela and Turkey today? What would our political and social divisions look like then?

Ladies and gentlemen, we live under the tyranny of inflationism. It terrorizes us, either softly or loudly. I suspect it will get a lot louder soon.

As the late Bill Peterson explained, “Inflationism, in today’s terms, is deficit-spending, deliberate credit expansion on a national scale, a public policy fallacy of monumental proportions, of creating too much money that chases too few goods. It rests on the ‘money illusion,’ a widespread confusion between in­come as a flow of money and income as a flow of goods and services—a confusion between ‘money’ and wealth.”

Inflationism is both a fiscal and monetary regime, but its consequences go far beyond economics. It has profound social, moral, and even civilizational effects. And understanding how it terrorizes us is the task today.

II. Understanding Inflationism

I’ll ask you to consider three things.

First, inflation is a policyWe should make them own it. Inflation is not something beyond our control that comes along periodically like the weather. Our monetary and fiscal regimes actually set out to create it and consider it a good thing. Let’s not forget—both Trump and Biden signed off on covid stimulus bills which combined injected roughly $7 TRILLION dollars directly into the economy—even as actual goods and services were dramatically reduced due to lockdowns. Deflation was the natural order of things in response to a crisis, a bullshit crisis in my view, but still a crisis. So of course Uncle Sam actively attempted to undo the natural desire to spend less and hold more cash during a time of uncertainty.

This $7 trillion was created on the fiscal side of things. It was not new Fed bank reserves exchanged for commercial bank assets as a roundabout monetization of Treasury debt, as we saw with quantitative easing. This was direct stimulus from the Treasury via Congress as express fiscal policy. Free money. This money went straight into the accounts of individuals (stimulus checks), state and local governments, millions of small businesses (PPP [Paycheck Protection Program] loans), the airline industry, and untold earmarks. This was actual cash, and it is being spent. So any economist who tells you today’s inflation is somehow a surprise is either charitably misinformed or gaslighting.

This is a policy. Inflation is engineered. The difference between supposedly desirable 2 percent CPI [Consumer Price Index] and very bad, awful, no good 9 percent CPI is only one of degree. The same mindset produces both. But the inflationists insist a little bit of virus is good for us, like a vaccine … So an express policy of some inflation is the mechanism to forestall too much inflation. This is a curious position.

Second, inflation is nothing less than sanctioned state terror, and we ought to treat it as such. It’s criminal. It makes us live in fear. Inflation is not just an economic issue, but in fact, produces deep cultural and social sickness in any society it touches. It makes business planning and entrepreneurship—which rely on profit and loss calculations using money prices—far more difficult and risky, which means we get less of both. How do you measure money profits when the unit of measurement keeps falling in value? It erodes capital accumulation, the driver of greater productivity and material progress. So inflation destroys both existing wealth and future wealth, which never comes into being and thus diminishes the world our children and grandchildren inhabit. And it makes us poor and vulnerable in our senior years.

After all, saving is for chumps. Current one-year CD rates are below 3 percent, while inflation is at least 9 percent. So you’re losing 6 points just by standing still! By the way, the last time official CPI approached double digits, in the early ’80s, a one-year CD earned 15 percent. I’d like to hear Jerome Powell explain that. By the way, ever since Alan Greenspan began this great experiment of four decades of lower and lower interest rates, guess who hasn’t benefited? Poor people and subprime borrowers, who still pay well over 20 percent for their car loans and credit cards.

But here is an unspoken truth: inflation also makes us worse people. It degrades us morally. It almost forces us to choose current consumption over thrift. Economists call this high time preference, preferring material things today at the expense of saving or investing. It makes us live for the present at the expense of the future, the opposite of what all healthy societies do. Capital accumulation over time, the result of profit, saving, and investing, is how we all got here today—a world with almost unimaginable material wealth all around us. Inflationism reverses this.

So this very human impulse, to save for a rainy day and perhaps leave something for your children, is upended. Inflationism is inescapably an antihuman policy.

Third, hyperinflation can happen here. It may not happen, and it may not happen soon. But it might well happen. And even steady 10 percent inflation means prices double roughly every seven years. We can pretend the laws of economics don’t apply to the world’s leading superpower, or that the world’s reserve currency is safe from the problems experienced by lesser countries. And it’s certainly true our reserve currency status insulates us and makes the world need dollars. Governments and industry mostly use US dollars to buy oil from OPEC countries, hence the term “petrodollar.” It’s certainly true governments, central banks, large multinational companies, worldwide investment funds, sovereign wealth funds, and pension funds all hold plenty of US dollars—and thus in a perverse way share our interest in maintaining King Dollar. It’s true we don’t have easy historical examples of a world reserve currency, like gold, suffering a rapid devaluation across the world (even the Spanish silver devaluation of the 1500 and 1600s was not necessarily caused by a glut in circulating currency). So we’re in uncharted territory, especially given the fiscal and monetary excesses of the last twenty-five years and especially the last two years. But this only means the potential contagion is greater and more dangerous. The whole world can be sickened at once.

III. A Story: When Money Dies

But as most of you surely know by now, we don’t turn the ship around or win hearts and minds simply with logic and facts and airtight arguments. We need stories, or narratives, in today’s awful media parlance, to gain influence. We need emotional reactions. So I will suggest a story with plenty of pathos to shake people out of their complacency and sound the warning.

That story is When Money Dies, Adam Fergusson’s brilliant cautionary account of hyperinflation in Weimar-era Germany. It is the story Americans desperately need to hear today.

Fergusson’s book should be assigned to central bankers stat (we wonder how many of them know of it). It’s not a book about economic policy per se—it’s a story, a historical account of folly and hubris on the part of German politicians and bureaucrats. It’s the story of a disaster created by humans who imagined they could overcome markets by monetary fiat. It’s a reminder that war and inflation are inextricably linked, that war finance leads nations to economic disaster and sets the stage for authoritarian bellicosity. We think Versailles and reparations created the conditions for Hitler’s rise, but without the Reichbank’s earlier suspension of its one-third gold reserve requirement in 1914, it seems unlikely Germany would have become a dominant European military power. Without inflationism, Hitler might have been a footnote.

Most of all, When Money Dies is a tale of privation and degradation. Not only for Germans, but also Austrians and Hungarians grappling with their own political upheavals and currency crises in the 1910s and ’20s. In a particularly poignant chapter, Fergusson describes the travails of a Viennese widow named Anna Eisenmenger. A friend of mine, @popeofcapitalism on Twitter, sent me her diary from Amazon.

The story starts with her comfortable life as the wife of a doctor and mother to a wonderful daughter and three sons. They are talented and cultured and musical and upper middle class. They even socialize with Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, the Duchess of Hohenberg.

But in May 1914 their happy life is shattered. Ferdinand is assassinated at Sarajevo, and war breaks out. Wars cost money, and the gold standard wisely adopted by Austria-Hungary in 1892 is almost immediately seen as an impediment. So the government predictably begins to issue war bonds in huge numbers, and the central bank fires up the printing presses. This results in a sixteenfold increase in prices just during the war years.

But the human effects are catastrophic, even apart from the war itself.

Frau Eisenmenger is luckier than most Viennese women. She owns small investments which produce modest income—fixed in kronen. Her banker quietly urges her to immediately exchange any funds for Swiss francs. She demurs, as dealing in foreign currency has been made illegal. But soon she realizes he was right. There is probably a lesson here for all of us!

As the war unfolds, she is forced into black markets and pawning assets to procure food for her war-damaged children. Her currency and Austrian bonds become almost worthless. She exchanges her husband’s gold watch for potatoes and coal. The downward spiral of her life, marked by hunger and hoarding anything with real value, happens so quickly she barely has time to adjust.

But her misery doesn’t stop with the end of the war. On the contrary, the Saint-Germain Treaty in 1919 gives way to a period of hyperinflation: the money supply increases from 12 to 30 billion kronen in 1920, and to about 147 billion kronen at the end of 1921 (does this sound like America 2020, by the way?). By August 1922, consumer prices are fourteen thousand times greater than before the start of the war eight years earlier.

In just a few short years she endures countless tragedies, all made worse by privation, cold, and hunger. Her husband dies. Her daughter contracts tuberculosis and dies, leaving Frau Eisenmenger to take care of her infant daughter and young son. One son goes missing in the war, one son is blinded, and her son-in-law becomes crippled following the loss of both legs. Food and coal are rationed, so her apartment is a miserable hovel—and she is forced to dodge searches by the “Food Police” looking for illegal hoarding. Ultimately, she is shot in the lung by her own Communist son, Karl, in a fit of rage.

There is a haunting and historically accurate silent film about conditions in Vienna during this era called The Joyless Street, starring a young Greta Garbo. Her character sees everything deteriorate around her; even her father beats her with his cane for returning home without food. Once friendly neighbors become suspicious of each other’s stores of bread and cheese, while prostitution becomes rampant. Angry people jostle in line, waiting for the butcher to open; when he does, only the most attractive women receive the scraps of meat available that day. Fistfights become common. Starving children beg for food in front of restaurants and cafes like stray dogs. Everything familiar and beautiful in society becomes degraded and cheapened seemingly overnight.

Like a Stephen King horror movie, something very familiar changes into a strange and menacing place. Your neighborhood takes on a different light. People you thought you knew became malevolent strangers. Scapegoating, blame, and snitching become commonplace.

Is this beginning to sound familiar, especially after Biden’s sick speech the other night?

So, next time one of these sociopaths in our political class wants to spend a few trillion more to pay for a green new deal or a war with China or free college, remember Frau Eisenmenger’s story.

IV. The Lessons for Today

How do we apply this grim historical lesson from the Weimar period to America today? How do we tell this story?

First, we explain inflationism in human terms, to personalize it and de-bamboozle it. Make monetary policy vital and immediate, not boring and dry and technocratic. Again, there are enormous moral and civilization components to monetary policy. Inflation not only harms our economy, it makes us worse people: profligate, shortsighted, lazy, and unconcerned with future generations. Professor Guido Hülsmann literally wrote the book on this. It’s called The Ethics of Money Production. This is maybe the greatest untold story in America today: the story of not only how the Fed fundamentally shifted our economy from one of production to consumption, but what it did to us as people. Don’t let them hide behind complex Fed speak the simple reality: monetary policy is nothing less than criminal theft from future generations, from savers, and from the poorest Americans, who are furthest from the money spigot. The idea that reasonably intelligent laypeople cannot understand monetary policy, that it is too important and complex for anyone but experts, is nonsense. We should expose it.

Second, ridicule the absurd idea that “policy” can make us richer. More goods and services, produced more and more efficiently, thanks to capital—and thereby creating price deflation—make us richer. That’s the only way. Not by legislative or monetary fiat.

So we should attack any notion of “public policy” and especially “monetary policy.” Inflationism creates a fake economy, a “make-believe” economy, as Axios recently put it. A fake economy depends on enormous levels of ongoing fiscal and monetary intervention. We call this “financialization,” but we all have a sense that our prosperity is borrowed. We all feel it. Capital markets are degraded: a lot of money moves around without creating any value for anyone. Companies don’t necessarily make profits or pay dividends; all that matters to shareholders is selling their stock for capital gains. It always requires a new Ponzi buyer. But we know intuitively this isn’t right: consider a restaurant or dry cleaner which operated without profit for years in the hope of selling for a gain years or decades later. Only the distorted incentives created by inflationism make this mindset possible. So down with “policy”—what we need is sound money!

Finally, let us not fear being accused of hyperbole or alarmism. Let me ask you this: what happens if we’re wrong, and what happens if they’re wrong? What they are doing, meaning central bankers and national treasuries, is unprecedented. Fake money is infinite, real resources are not. Hyperinflation may not be around the corner or even years away; no one can predict such a thing. But at some point the US economy must create real organic growth if we hope to maintain living standards and avoid an ugly inflationary reality. No amount of monetary or fiscal engineering can take the place of capital accumulation and higher productivity. More money and credit is no substitute for more, better, and cheaper goods and services. Political money can’t work, and we should never be afraid to attack it root and branch. We need private money, the only money immune from the inescapable political incentive to vote for things now and pay for them later. If this is radical, so be it.

History shows us how money dies. Yes, it can happen here. Only a fool thinks otherwise.

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2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

GOLD/SILVER

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

David H. Smith, precious metals investing philosopher, is fondly remembered

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-09-07 20:28Section: Daily Dispatches

By Stefan Gleason
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Wednesday, September 7, 2022

Many precious metals investors over the years have closely followed the writings of David H. Smith, the beloved senior analyst at The Morgan Report and monthly columnist for Money Metals Exchange.

I am saddened to report that my friend — our friend — David Smith lost his battle with cancer last weekend.

David was a phenomenal yet humble man. He was a teacher, a student, and a philosopher.

I have rarely a met a more optimistic, thoughtful, and wise person.

He was not just a pithy writer who informed and guided his readers; he was a trusted advisor to me personally. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2022/09/07/rip-david-h-smith-precious-metals-investing-philosopher-002587

end

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

-END-

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end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES:

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/COAL

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.9520

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9530

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 189.68 PTS OR  1.00%

2. Nikkei closed UP 634.98 OR  2.31%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MIXED 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  109.34/Euro RISES TO 1.0026

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.243/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 143.38/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.565%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.84% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.72%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.14//

3j Gold at $1724.95 silver at: 18.69  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 15/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.63//

3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and  88 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 143.38DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 9710– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9737well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.216  DOWN 5  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.385 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,24

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Flat Ahead Of ECB, Powell Doubleheader

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 08:01 AM

US stock futures traded flat, erasing modest earlier gains and losses in the overnight session as investors remained cautious while watching for signs of a softening in the Federal Reserve’s policy. Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed by 7:15 a.m. in New York after earlier gaining as much as 0.6%. S&P 500 contracts were up less than 0.1%, at 3,983.75 after hitting 3,996 overnight and following small gains in Estoxx50. The underlying index notched its biggest gain in a month on Wednesday which was sparked by yet another short squeeze, and is attempting to rebound following three straight weeks of declines that were fueled by fading bets on a Fed policy pivot and as investors braced for the impact of a potential economic contraction. Crude oil futures managed a feeble, +0.5% bounce after falling 5.7% Wednesday. The dollar reversed earlier gains helping lift the badly beaten EUR and JPY higher.

Among notable movers in premarket trading, American Eagle Outfitters slumped as much 16% after the retailer reported results for a quarter that Citigroup analysts described as “rough,” while also pausing its quarterly cash dividend. GameStop jumped as much as 12% in US premarket trading after the announcement of a partnership with cryptocurrency exchange FTX US, though the gaming company reported net sales for the second quarter that missed estimates. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Asana gains 18% in premarket trading after the software company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year. Separately, the company said CEO Dustin Moskovitz bought $350 million of shares in a private placement.
  • Moderna (MRNA US) gains 2.2% in premarket trading after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold after its “solid” second quarter earnings beat and the “welcome” late- July news of additional fall 2022 orders from the US.
  • Apple (AAPL US) shares were steady in premarket trading as analysts say the biggest takeaway from the company’s product event was its pricing strategy, with the iPhone maker opting not to raise average prices for its latest smartphone and watch models.
  • Keep an eye on Intel (INTC US) as the stock is started with a hold rating and $32 price target at Stifel, which cites uncertainty over the chipmaker’s turnaround strategy. Stifel also started Nvidia (NVDA US) with a hold recommendation and AMD (AMD US) with a buy rating.
  • Chipmakers may also be in focus after TSMC, the world’s largest supplier of made-to-order chips, said sales rose 59% in August from a year earlier. In the US, watch equipment stocks such as Applied Materials (AMAT US), KLA (KLAC US), Lam Research (LRCX US), Entegris (ENTG US), Teradyne (TER US), and MKS Instruments (MKSI US)

Sentiment improved on Wednesday after Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard warned that “two-sided” risks will eventually emerge from tightening monetary policy — remarks that were considered to have a more dovish tone than some other recent Fed comments. Focus on Thursday will be on a speech by Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak just after a monetary policy decision by the European Central Bank.

Still, strategists warn that risks to a sustained rally are growing. “Sentiment is very depressed and markets are oversold,” Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy at RBC Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “It’s possible that there is a rally, but as long as the Fed is increasing interest rates, it’s very difficult for the upside to be very strong.”

As central banks are walking a tightrope, moving sharply to tackle price pressures while remaining leery of sparking a damaging economic contraction in the process, today we get a central bank doubleheader with the ECB expected to hike rates by 75bps at 8:15am, while Jerome Powell speaks at a monetary conference at 9:10am ET.  The Euro is holding around parity against the dollar ahead of the ECB, where money markets price in around 65bp of rate hikes for the meeting, with most economists expecting a 75bp rate hike. The focal point of US session after ECB is Powell participation in moderated discussion at a monetary policy conference.

“What we are seeing in Europe is very, very concerning, what is happening there is the worst energy crisis we have seen since the oil embargo in 70s,” Ryan Lemand, Securrency Capital advisor to the board, said on Bloomberg Television. “Europe will face a recession, one of the worst recessions it will have faced and I don’t think risky assets are pricing this in correctly.”

Fed officials reiterated their determination to get inflation under control. Vice Chair Lael Brainard said interest rates will need to rise to restrictive levels, while cautioning risks would become more two-sided in the future. The Fed’s Beige Book report said US economic expansion prospects were weak, while adding that price growth showed signs of decelerating.

Goldman economists lifted their forecast for the pace of Fed interest rate increases, expecting the Fed to hike by 75 basis points this month and 50 basis points in November, up from previous forecasts of 50 basis points and 25 basis points respectively. They are tipping a 25 basis points move in December.

Deutsche Bank AG strategists also said that elevated “late-cycle earnings,” higher valuations and the risk of a recession limit the fundamental case for a sustained rally in US stocks. In their worst case scenario, they see the S&P 500 slumping to 3,000 points in the event of a recession — almost 25% below its latest close. However, their base case still calls for equities to rise by year end.

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.1%, surrendering most of an initial 0.6% advance as retailers slumped after a profit warning from Primark-owner Associated British Foods Plc. The FTSE 100 outperformed peers, adding 0.4%, IBEX lags, dropping 0.2%. Insurance, banks and miners are the strongest-performing sectors. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Genus shares jump as much as 16%, the most since May 2019, after Peel Hunt upgraded the firm to buy, saying its business was “back on the front foot” after publishing FY earnings
  • SBB shares jumped as much as 11% during early trading in Stockholm after signing a letter of intent to sell SEK9 billion worth of properties to an unidentified institutional investor
  • European semiconductor stocks rise on Thursday, after chipmaking bellwether TSMC reported an acceleration in sales in August and Apple launched a new lineup of devices
  • Ocado shares advance as much as 4.4% after being upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Barclays, which says the risks are now “more evenly balanced” for the online grocer
  • Alleima gains as much as 6.1% after Danske Bank initiated coverage of the shares with a buy recommendation, where it sees “plenty of value,” also expecting it to benefit from a cyclical recovery
  • Munters shares rise as much as 7.6% after Nordea upgraded the Swedish climate and cooling manufacturer to buy on “surging order intake,” raising adjusted Ebita estimates for 2023 and 2024
  • Energean shares rise as much as 15% after it increased medium-term financial targets in its 1H report and a quarterly dividend helped by what Peel Hunt called “robust operational performance”
  • Atos shares tumble to the lowest level since 1993 after Goldman Sachs downgrades the French tech firm to sell from neutral, citing low visibility and a long path to recovery
  • Darktrace shares plunge as much as 35%, the most on record, after M&A talks with Thoma Bravo collapsed, with the suitor not intending to make an offer for the UK cybersecurity company
  • AB Foods shares drop as much as 8.6% after the Primark owner said it expects FY23 adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings per share to be lower than this financial year
  • Somfy fell as much as 13% after the French maker of windows and doors warned of a possible pullback in consumer spending after its 1H results were hurt by a slowdown in growth

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rebounded from their lowest level in more than two years as oil prices eased and the region’s suppliers to Apple Inc. climbed after the US company unveiled new lineups for its iPhones and watches. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.3%, snapping a five-day slump, as technology and industrial shares advanced. Japan gained along with Australia and Taiwan, while China dropped as Chengdu extended a week-long lockdown in most downtown areas after Covid-19 cases increased.  Asian stocks regained some footing amid a rout that still has the market on course for its fourth-straight week of losses. A two-day retreat in long-term US Treasury yields and Wednesday’s plunge in oil prices helped lift sentiment that had been hurt by concerns over a hawkish Federal Reserve.

“Markets have started to price in a less aggressive Fed, while falling oil and other commodity prices have also helped to ease profit-margin pressures for Asian companies,” Soo Hai Lim, head of Asia ex-China equities at Barings, wrote in a note. “In the longer term, we believe the performance of individual Asian markets will be driven by country-specific growth factors.” Asian stocks are down more than 4% this month amid an outflow of funds from the region. Still, some investors believe that attractive valuations will lure money back and spur a rebound. Read: ‘Massive Discount’ Has Robeco Eyeing 2003-Like Asia Stock Bounce

Japanese stocks gained, with the Topix climbing the most since July 20, after a rally in US shares and a weak yen boosted exporters.  The Topix rose 2.2% to 1,957.62 at the 3pm close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 2.3% to 28,065.28. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.3%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 1,947 rose and 161 fell, while 61 were unchanged. Shares also climbed after Japanese GDP data showed the economy grew at a faster pace last quarter than earlier estimates. “Japanese stocks look attractive to dollar-denominated investors in the short term,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, portfolio manager at Saison Asset Management. “It makes it easier to buy when there’s a bit of a risk-on mood.” 

Australian stocks gained most in ten weeks on RBA Lowe’s comments. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.8% to close at 6,848.70, staging an afternoon rally after the RBA’s chief signaled a potential end to outsized interest rate hikes. Mining and banking shares provided the biggest boost to the benchmark. Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said the case for a slower pace of tightening becomes stronger as the cash rate moves higher. The central bank delivered a fourth straight half-point hike this week to take the cash rate to 2.35%.  Energy shares declined as oil fell to a near eight-month low before steadying, with investors assessing the outlook for demand as China pushes on with its Covid Zero policy and central banks tighten monetary policy.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1.1% to 11,677.93

Indian stocks rose, snapping two sessions of declines, as a drop in crude oil prices below $90 per barrel raised optimism of lower import costs and softer consumer prices.  The S&P BSE Sensex gained 1.1% to 59,688, its highest level in three weeks, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 1%. ICICI Bank contributed the most to the Sensex, which had 24 of 30 member shares ending higher.  Fourteen of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by a gauge of banks.  Price of Brent crude, a major import for India, hovered around $88 per barrel, their lowest level since early February

In FX, the pound pared a decline as UK Prime Minister Liz Truss outlined plans to provide relief on rising energy costs to British households and businesses, which she said is expected to curb inflation. There has been widespread speculation that the government’s aid proposals will require further debt sales to fund it that could drive up bond yields. Short-end gilts steadied after rallying Wednesday on bets the plan would calm inflation. Other notable movers:

  • A dollar gauge was steady as traders assessed comments from Federal Reserve officials on their commitment to fighting inflation. 
  • The euro was little changed against the dollar. On European bond markets, two-year German yields rose by around 5 basis points, while the Italian two-year yield fell by one basis point. Market pricing for the following ECB meetings picked up slightly. Just one jumbo rate hike from the European Central Bank may not cut it for euro bulls looking for a sustainable move above parity with the dollar
  • The yen gave up an earlier modest advance to trade below 144 per dollar after senior Japanese officials met for the first time since June to discuss markets but said their stance remained the same
  • The Australian dollar slumped and Australian sovereign bonds jumped after Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe signaled a potential end to outsized interest-rate increases. Australian dollar underperformed all its Group-of-10 peers

In rates, Treasuries steadied after rallying as Australia’s central bank chief signaled a potential end to outsized policy moves; they were slightly richer from belly out to the long-end of the curve with price action light ahead of ECB policy rate decision at 8:15am ET. US yields were richer by up to 2bp across belly of the curve with 2s5s, 2s10s spreads both flatter by around 2bp on the day as front-end underperforms; 10-year yields around 3.25% with bunds and gilts lagging by 3bp and 2bp in the sector after an earlier rally spurred by RBA signaling a potential end to outsized interest-rate increases, making it an outlier in G-10.  Bunds yield curve bear-flattens with 2-year yield up 3.6bps to around 1.12%, underperforming USTs and gilts. Both 10-year and 2-year gilts yields trade around 3% as traders gear for details of the new economic package from Truss. Futures gained during Asia session after RBA’s dovish policy pivot, following Aussie bonds higher before fading slightly over London morning. IG dollar issuance slate includes Mitsubishi HC $500m 5Y; six borrowers priced $10b on Wednesday, follows Tuesday’s massive $33b over 44 tranches. Three-month dollar Libor +4.17bp to 3.23571%.

In commodities, oil trimmed a sharp slide this week sparked by demand risks from monetary tightening and China’s Covid travails — the megacity of Chengdu extended a weeklong lockdown in most downtown areas. Gold added $1 to ~$1,719. Most base metals trade in the green; LME aluminum rises 1.4%, outperforming peers. LME nickel lags, dropping 1.3%.

Bitcoin trades relatively flat just above USD 19,000 whilst Ethereum remains north of USD 1,600.

To the day ahead now, and the ECB policy decision will be the main highlight, along with President Lagarde’s press conference. Otherwise, we’ll also hear from Fed Chair Powell and the Fed’s Evans and Kashkari. Finally, data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims from the US.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 3,975.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 412.42
  • MXAP up 1.0% to 152.06
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 498.31
  • Nikkei up 2.3% to 28,065.28
  • Topix up 2.2% to 1,957.62
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.0% to 18,854.62
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,235.59
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 59,518.06
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.8% to 6,848.67
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,384.28
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.59%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $0.9984
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,717.37
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 109.81

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • With the greenback supercharged by expectations of higher-for- longer US interest rates, traders are struggling to pick the bottom for Asian currencies
  • The European Union may need additional stimulus measures if the economic downturn worsens, according to the bloc’s economy chief, who warned that the coming winter could be “one of the worst in history”
  • Investors are bracing for details of UK Prime Minister Liz Truss’s new economic package, with some warning that a new wave of debt issuance to fund the spending risks roiling debt markets and pressuring the battered pound
  • Inflation in Hungary accelerated to the highest level since 1998 in August as food prices increased by almost a third, according to stats office data. Consumer prices rose an annual 15.6% in August after 13.7% growth in July
  • Russian Deputy Finance Minister Timur Maksimov said the government plans to resume sales of its bonds, known as OFZs, as early as this month, Interfax reports

A more detailed look at global markets

Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly positive after the relief rally on Wall St where a lower yield environment and declines in oil prices underpinned risk appetite, although Chinese markets underperformed on COVID woes. ASX 200 was positive with tech and gold miners leading the advances across nearly all sectors aside from energy after the recent fall in oil. Nikkei 225 surged towards the 28,000 level with sentiment lifted following the larger-than-expected upward revisions to Q2 GDP. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed their regional peers after the megacity of Chengdu extended its lockdown in most areas and Shenzhen also temporarily lowered its entry quota for Hong Kong travellers amid a resource squeeze from the ongoing outbreak.

Top Asian News

  • China Health Authority encourages people to stay put during China National Day holidays (Oct 1st-7th), and to avoid travel outside their cities, via Reuters. China Transport Ministry Official said daily average travel for mid-Autumn festival expected to drop 32% Y/Y.
  • RBA Governor Lowe said further rate rises will be required but they are not on a preset path and said the case for a slower pace of rate hikes becomes stronger as the level of the Cash Rate increases. Lowe also commented that demand has to grow more slowly to bring it back in line with supply and there is a significant demand element to higher inflation, while he added it is very possible that wage growth does not pick up much further and said quantitative tightening is not on the agenda.
  • Japanese top currency diplomat Kanda said MoF, BoJ, and FSA meeting produced no statement this time as basic understanding on FX remains unchanged from the prior meeting. Japanese top currency diplomat Kanda agreed at the meeting on the need to watch markets with a strong sense of urgency, will not rule out any step, and are ready to take action in the FX market; BoJ and Govt are extremely worried about the recent JPY moves.
  • Japan Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary said it is watching FX moves with high sense of urgency, ready to take necessary steps if recent FX moves continue. When asked about potential intervention, said he would not comment on specific market views. Will make decisions at the appropriate time regarding both economic sentiment and inflation when asked about supplementary budget

European bourses trade with a directionless bias on ECB day after waning off best levels, and following a mixed APAC handover. European sectors are now mixed (vs mostly firmer at the open), with defensives making their way up the ranks. Stateside, US equity futures are portraying a similar tentativeness as their European counterparts, with the main contracts trading on either side of the flat mark but holding onto yesterday’s gains.

Top European News

  • Primark Drags Down AB Foods Outlook as Energy Costs Rise
  • Commerzbank Says Profit Target Remains Despite Energy Crisis
  • Euro Holding Parity Needs Uber-Hawkish Meet: ECB Cheat Sheet
  • Sampo Plans Dual Listing in Stockholm to Boost Liquidity
  • Zurich Cuts Swimming Pool Temperatures to Save Energy

FX

  • DXY pulled back further from Wednesday’s new y-t-d and multi-year peak before finding support just under 109.500.
  • The EUR briefly popped over parity and the JPY pared more losses from its worst levels in around 24 years vs the USD.
  • The Kiwi and Aussie both have cause to underperform given a deceleration in NZ manufacturing sales, bleak Australian trade data and remarks from RBA Governor Lowe.

Fixed Income

  • Bunds and Gilts sit far from best levels between 145.82-144.71 and 106.84-105.75 parameters.
  • Conversely, US Treasuries are treading water ahead of jobless claims and Fed chair Powell, albeit also off overnight peaks

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures trade volatile with two-way action seen in the European morning.
  • JPMorgan believes OPEC+ will need to cut another 1mln BPD to stabilise the market.
  • Spot gold holds onto yesterday’s gains north of USD 1,700/oz, but under the USD 1,726.79/oz high set on Tuesday
  • Base metals are mostly firmer but the upside is capped by China’s COVID woes, nonetheless, 3M LME copper is supported by reports that Workers at Chile’s Escondida copper mine voted to strike over safety concerns.
  • Russian Finance Minister considers it reasonable to build reserves in gold and Yuan, according to Tass.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Aug. Continuing Claims, est. 1.44m, prior 1.44m
  • 08:30: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 232,000
  • 15:00: July Consumer Credit, est. $32b, prior $40.2b

Central Banks

  • 09:10: Powell Speaks at Monetary Policy Conference
  • 12:00: Fed’s Evans speaks on economy, policy at DuPage forum
  • 14:20: Fed’s Kashkari Makes Introductory Remarks at Labor Market…

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Readers could be forgiven for losing track of the various themes in markets right now, after a volatile 24 hours that’s seen oil prices crash to their lowest level in months, the dollar reach another multi-decade high, a WSJ article that cemented expectations for another 75bps Fed hike this month, but an S&P 500 that relentlessly marched higher all day to close +1.83%. Indeed even as the likelihood rose that we could see a more rapid pace of near-term hikes, both equities and sovereign bonds rallied yesterday, since the commodity declines raised hopes that central banks could afford to slow up on rate hikes when we get to 2023. Today could put that narrative under pressure however, as there’s a decent chance we’ll see the largest ECB hike in their history, and we’re also set to hear from Fed Chair Powell in his last appearance before the next FOMC meeting.

Running through those specific moves, oil prices took a significant tumble yesterday as concerns about the strength of global demand continued to fester. Indeed, Brent crude (-5.55%) closed beneath $90/bbl for the first time since early February, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, whilst WTI fell -5.69% to $81.85/bbl. Brent futures are back up c.+1% this morning in Asia. One factor behind the declines has been the continued pursuit of the zero-Covid strategy in China, and we got confirmation yesterday that Chengdu (population 21 million) would be extending its lockdown in most of the city. Even European Gas (-10.82%) fell and is now down -28.47% from the intra-day peak on Monday as the market digested the latest NS1 closure announced after the close on Friday. Since then we’re actually down -14.78%. How much of this is a demand destruction story this week and how much is a “we now have peak bad news on European gas supplies” is one to debate.

On the commodities topic, at 12:00 London time today I’ll be speaking on a client call on the outlook for commodities, China and inflation. It’s hosted by DB’s metals and mining team, and I’ll be joined by their head Liam Fitzpatrick, our chief China economist Yi Xiong, and our head of Asian property equity research, Lucia Kwong. Industrial commodities have come under heavy pressure in recent months since peaking earlier this year, so is this the end of the bullish mining and commodities trade, or a cyclical blip within a larger structural uptrend? For further details on the call and how to register, click here.

The continued decline in oil prices has been welcome news from an inflation perspective, and US gasoline prices are now down by nearly a quarter since their peak in mid-June. And in turn, the prospect that central banks don’t need to hike rates as aggressively if inflation is subdued (rightly or wrong) helped both equities and bonds to stage a strong rally over yesterday’s session. For instance, the S&P 500 (+1.84% yesterday) is now on track to end a run of three consecutive weekly declines, where only the Energy (-1.15%) sector ended in the red and every other sector gained at least +1%, a broad-based gain. Germany’s DAX (+0.35%) also recovered from its initial losses of more than -1% to move higher on the day. In the meantime, yields on 10yr Treasuries (-8.6bps), bunds (-6.1bps), OATs (-7.7bps) and BTPs (-11.4bps) all declined, which makes a change from the awful run that sovereign bonds have been on over recent weeks. As we go to print, we are another -3.6bps lower on the 10yr USTs but less than a basis point lower for 2yrs.

Indeed, when it comes to the next couple of weeks, it looks as though the series of bumper rate hikes is set to continue. There was a noticeable reaction in Fed funds futures yesterday after the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos published an article saying that Chair Powell’s pledge to tackle inflation “appears to have put the central bank on a path” to a 75bps hike. Remember it was Timiraos’ article back in June that was seen as setting the stage for the first 75bps hike of this cycle (rather than 50bps as previously expected), so his articles do carry weight in markets. That was apparent in futures, which are now pricing in +69.5bps worth of hikes for the September meeting, which is the most hawkish markets have been on September since the last meeting in July. Fed speakers continued to weigh in yesterday. Notably, Fed Vice Chair Brainard noted the Fed’s commitment to bring inflation under order, and the risks of inflation expectations moving higher, while at the same time paying heed to the two-sided risks of over-doing tightening. In short, her remarks didn’t do anything to discourage markets from pricing a larger hike in September and from pricing in lower yields out the curve. As noted, Fed Chair Powell will follow up at a conference later this morning.

Speaking of rate hikes, the focus today will be on the ECB’s latest decision, where the consensus among both market pricing and economists is that they’ll follow the Fed’s moves in June and July and similarly hike by a bumper 75bps. Our own economists at DB are also expecting a 75bps move, and if realised this would be the largest ECB hike since the formation of the single currency, so a historic move. In our economists’ view, the factors tipping the balance towards a larger hike are the upside inflation surprises (hitting a record +9.1% in August), along with the significant minority of Governing Council members publicly calling for 75bps to be on the table. You can see their full preview here.

Staying on this theme, overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that further rate rises are required to cool inflation while signalling that the hikes could be smaller in the coming months. Comments from the Governor indicated that he is hopeful that the central bank can navigate the narrow path to a soft landing despite badly misreading the growing inflation crisis. Aussie yields are around -15bps lower across the curve with two-thirds of the move coming after Lowe’s speech. So a big reaction.

Another focus today will be the UK once again, as new PM Truss is set to announce the government’s plan on energy bills in the House of Commons. According to media reports, that will involve bills being frozen around their current levels, rather than rising in October in line with the increase in the energy price cap. However, there was a tough market backdrop yesterday, as sterling fell to its weakest intraday level against the US Dollar since 1985, hitting $1.1406 at one point before recovering to end the day at $1.1533. To be fair, a good chunk of sterling’s recent weakness has been down to dollar strength, with the dollar index currently up by +14.72% YTD, leaving it on track for its biggest annual gain since 1981, when it strengthened +15.8%. But when it came to yesterday, it was certainly a story of sterling weakness, as it fell -0.89% against the Euro too.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning following Wall Street’s solid rebound overnight. As I type, the Nikkei (+2.05%) is leading gains across the region with the Kospi (+0.55%) also trading in positive territory. Over in mainland China, stocks are slightly down with the Shanghai Composite (-0.08%) and CSI (-0.04%) both struggling for direction on the extension of a lockdown in the city of Chengdu while the Hang Seng (-0.53%) is slipping in early trade. US stock futures are little changed with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.06%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.09%) marginally higher after yesterday’s rally.

Early this morning, the final estimate of Japan’s GDP showed that the economy expanded an annualised +3.5% in the second quarter (+2.9% expected) up from the initial reading of +2.2% growth as the removal of local Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumer and business spending. Separately, Australia recorded a record drop in its trade surplus, narrowing to A$8.7 bn in July from A$17.7 bn a month before mainly due to declining iron ore and coal exports. At the same time, exports in July declined -10.0% (-8.0% expected) from the month before while imports rose +5%.

Back to yesterday and the theme of hawkish central banks continued (notwithstanding the Aussie news this morning), as the Bank of Canada hiked by 75bps, whilst outlining their view that “the policy interest rate will need to rise further.” Meanwhile on the data side, we heard that the Euro Area economy grew faster than previously thought in Q2, with a +0.8% expansion (vs. +0.6% previous estimate). Finally, German industrial production in July contracted by a smaller-than-expected -0.3% (vs. -0.6% expected).

To the day ahead now, and the ECB policy decision will be the main highlight, along with President Lagarde’s press conference. Otherwise, we’ll also hear from Fed Chair Powell and the Fed’s Evans and Kashkari. Finally, data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims from the US.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

US Market Open: Tentative trade on ECB day with Fed Chair Powell also on the docket – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 06:40 AM

  • European bourses trade with a directionless bias on ECB day; US equity futures are portraying a similar tentativeness.
  • DXY pulled back further from Wednesday’s new multi-year peak before finding support just under 109.500; JPY pared more losses.
  • Bunds and Gilts sit far from best levels; US Treasuries are treading water albeit also off  overnight peaks 
  • US President Biden delayed the decision on Trump-era tariffs on China; China Health Authority encourages people to stay put during China National Day holidays (Oct 1st-7th).
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, ECB Announcement, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Powell, Evans, Kashkari & BoC’s Rogers

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk

Try a 14-day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

8th September 2022

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US IJC, ECB Announcement, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Powell, Evans, Kashkari & BoC’s Rogers
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
  • Click here for the Newsquawk ECB preview.
  • Click here for the Newsquawk primer on Fed Chair Powell’s speech.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Belarus begins military exercises near the border region, according to the Ministry of Defence, via Reuters.
  • Russian Finance Minister says the Yuan’s role in Russian reserves will grow, according to Ifax; Considers it reasonable to build reserves in gold and Yuan, according to Tass citing the Finance Minister.

OTHER

  • US President Biden delayed the decision on Trump-era tariffs on China, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 14 nations in the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework will consider creating a formal system for sharing semiconductor devices, medical products and other vital supplies during international emergencies, according to Nikkei.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses trade with a directionless bias on ECB day after waning off best levels, and following a mixed APAC handover.
  • European sectors are now mixed (vs mostly firmer at the open), with defensives making their way up the ranks.
  • Stateside, US equity futures are portraying a similar tentativeness as their European counterparts, with the main contracts trading on either side of the flat mark but holding onto yesterday’s gains.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY pulled back further from Wednesday’s new y-t-d and multi-year peak before finding support just under 109.500.
  • The EUR briefly popped over parity and the JPY pared more losses from its worst levels in around 24 years vs the USD.
  • The Kiwi and Aussie both have cause to underperform given a deceleration in NZ manufacturing sales, bleak Australian trade data and remarks from RBA Governor Lowe.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 1.0000 (2.2bln)
  • Click here for more detail

FIXED INCOME

  • Bunds and Gilts sit far from best levels between 145.82-144.71 and 106.84-105.75 parameters.
  • Conversely, US Treasuries are treading water ahead of jobless claims and Fed chair Powell, albeit also off overnight peaks
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures trade volatile with two-way action seen in the European morning.
  • JPMorgan believes OPEC+ will need to cut another 1mln BPD to stabilise the market.
  • Spot gold holds onto yesterday’s gains north of USD 1,700/oz, but under the USD 1,726.79/oz high set on Tuesday
  • Base metals are mostly firmer but the upside is capped by China’s COVID woes, nonetheless, 3M LME copper is supported by reports that Workers at Chile’s Escondida copper mine voted to strike over safety concerns.
  • Russian Finance Minister considers it reasonable to build reserves in gold and Yuan, according to Tass.
  • Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin trades relatively flat just above USD 19,000 whilst Ethereum remains north of USD 1,600.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • Poland has called for the EU to prioritise other measures over windfall taxes on power producers, according to the FT. The report frames it as a sign of divisions in Brussels.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US SEC will propose rules next week on US treasury market trading and clearing, according to a notice cited by Reuters.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were mostly positive after the relief rally on Wall St where a lower yield environment and declines in oil prices underpinned risk appetite, although Chinese markets underperformed on COVID woes.
  • ASX 200 was positive with tech and gold miners leading the advances across nearly all sectors aside from energy after the recent fall in oil.
  • Nikkei 225 surged towards the 28,000 level with sentiment lifted following the larger-than-expected upward revisions to Q2 GDP.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed their regional peers after the megacity of Chengdu extended its lockdown in most areas and Shenzhen also temporarily lowered its entry quota for Hong Kong travellers amid a resource squeeze from the ongoing outbreak.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9148 vs exp. 6.9204 (prev. 6.9160)
  • China Health Authority encourages people to stay put during China National Day holidays (Oct 1st-7th), and to avoid travel outside their cities, via Reuters. China Transport Ministry Official said daily average travel for mid-Autumn festival expected to drop 32% Y/Y.
  • RBA Governor Lowe said further rate rises will be required but they are not on a preset path and said the case for a slower pace of rate hikes becomes stronger as the level of the Cash Rate increases. Lowe also commented that demand has to grow more slowly to bring it back in line with supply and there is a significant demand element to higher inflation, while he added it is very possible that wage growth does not pick up much further and said quantitative tightening is not on the agenda.
  • Japanese top currency diplomat Kanda said MoF, BoJ, and FSA meeting produced no statement this time as basic understanding on FX remains unchanged from the prior meeting. Japanese top currency diplomat Kanda agreed at the meeting on the need to watch markets with a strong sense of urgency, will not rule out any step, and are ready to take action in the FX market; BoJ and Govt are extremely worried about the recent JPY moves.
  • Japan Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary said it is watching FX moves with high sense of urgency, ready to take necessary steps if recent FX moves continue. When asked about potential intervention, said he would not comment on specific market views. Will make decisions at the appropriate time regarding both economic sentiment and inflation when asked about supplementary budget

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese GDP Revised QQ (Q2) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.5%)
  • Japanese GDP Rev QQ Annualised (Q2) 3.5% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.2%)
  • Australian Trade Balance G&S (AUD) (Jul) 8.7B vs. Exp. 14.5B (Prev. 17.7B)
  • Australian Goods/Services Exports (Jul) -10% (Prev. 5%)
  • Australian Goods/Services Imports (Jul) 5% (Prev. 1%)
  • New Zealand Manufacturing Sales (Q2) -4.9% (Prev. -3.5%)

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10,71 PTS OR 0.33%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 189.68 OR 1.09%    /The Nikkei closed UP 634.98 OR 2.31%.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.81%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.9513//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.9530//    /Oil DOWN TO 82.52  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 88.52    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA/Taiwan

“Winter Is Coming”: Taiwan Export Slowdown Implies Darkening Clouds For Global Economy

WEDNESDAY, SEP 07, 2022 – 10:25 PM

The slowdown in Taiwan’s exports is further evidence that the risks to the global economic outlook are tilted to the downside and could imply more turmoil is ahead. 

A statement from the Finance Ministry in Taipei said exports grew a paltry 2% in August compared with the same month last year — the slowest pace of growth since July 2020, when exports only grew by .3%. Bloomberg noted economists were expecting an increase of 11.6%. 

Imports also decelerated, rising by 3.5% in August, compared to a 19.4% expansion in July. Economists were anticipating an 8.7% rise. 

Beatrice Tsai, the Ministry of Finance’s chief statistician, said the trade slowdown suggests “winter is coming.” She outlined how double-digit export growth in the third quarter is unlikely, adding September exports could contract by 3% versus a year ago. 

Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor fabrication is a good barometer of global chip demand. 

“While demand for integrated circuits and mineral products continued to be hot, export sales of traditional products such as plastics and base metals were sluggish due to weak end-user demand,” according to a statement from the finance ministry.

The slowdown in exports is a troubling sign that the global tech sector could be entering an alarming downturn due to lackluster consumer demand worldwide: 

“There are clearer signs showing that the tech sector has entered a downturn, driven by weakening global demand for mobile phones, PCs and other consumer electronics products, which also weighs on demand for the upstream semiconductors,” said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd.

Some macro-tourists closely watch Taiwan’s export data as an early indicator of turning points for the global economy. 

Global growth from Asia to Europe to the US has shown signs of deceleration this summer (IMF warned about this in July), with fears major economies could slide into recession amid a flurry of central banks increasing interest rates to combat the highest inflation in decades. 

A notable index followed by many is JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The latest print last month showed global manufacturing is nearing contraction. It fell from 51.1 in July to 50.3 in August. 

To sum up, consumer demand is weakening in an environment of high inflation. Central banks aggressively raise interest rates that could tilt developed and emerging economies into recession. 

end

CHINA

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK

Queen Elizabeth II Dead At 96

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 01:33 PM

Update (1405ET): The Prince of Wales, Queen Elizabeth II’s eldest son, has become the new monarch, King Charles III.

A statement from the King reads:

The death of my beloved Mother, Her Majesty The Queen, is a moment of the greatest sadness for me and all members of my family.

We mourn profoundly the passing of a cherished Sovereign and a much loved Mother. I know her loss will be deeply felt throughout the country, the Realms and the Commonwealth, and by countless people around the world.

During this period of mourning and change, my family and I will be comforted and sustained by our knowledge of the respect and deep affection in which The Queen was so widely held.

Here’s the royal line of succession to the British throne:

ECB/

The ECB hikes rates by.75% and admits it is in a full blown depression due to high energy costs

(zerohedge)

ECB Hikes 75bps, Expects To “Raise Rates Further To Dampen Demand”

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 08:26 AM

And we have the answer: after lots of hemming and hawing, moments ago the ECB hiked its deposit rate by 75bps from 0% to 0.75bps, the first time European rates are positive in over a decade (since July 2012) noting that “the Governing Council’s future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach.” Of note, the ECB said that following the raising of the deposit facility rate to above zero, “the two-tier system for the remuneration of excess reserves is no longer necessary” and “the Governing Council therefore decided today to suspend the two-tier system by setting the multiplier to zero.”

And since today’s hike is paltry when compared to Europe’s runaway inflation which is almost in the double digits, the central bank said – not once but twice – that it expects over the next several meetings to raise interest rates further “because inflation remains far too high and is likely to stay above target for an extended period” and “to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.”

Remarkably, the ECB is hiking even as it writes the following in its statement:

After a rebound in the first half of 2022, recent data point to a substantial slowdown in euro area economic growth, with the economy expected to stagnate later in the year and in the first quarter of 2023. Very high energy prices are reducing the purchasing power of people’s incomes and, although supply bottlenecks are easing, they are still constraining economic activity. In addition, the adverse geopolitical situation, especially Russia’s unjustified aggression towards Ukraine, is weighing on the confidence of businesses and consumers. This outlook is reflected in the latest staff projections for economic growth, which have been revised down markedly for the remainder of the current year and throughout 2023. Staff now expect the economy to grow by 3.1% in 2022, 0.9% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024.

In short, the ECB is hiking not into a recession but a full-blown depression, and it knows it.

here are the other highlights from the statement:

RATES:

  • Says today’s decision frontloads the transition from the prevailing highly accommodative level of policy rates towards levels that will ensure the timely return of inflation to the ECB’s 2% medium-term target
  • Following the raising of the deposit facility rate to above zero, the two-tier system for the remuneration of excess reserves is no longer necessary.
  • The Governing Council therefore decided today to suspend the two-tier system by setting the multiplier to zero.

GUIDANCE:

  • Governing Council expects to raise interest rates further to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.
  • Governing Council will regularly re-evaluate its policy path in light of incoming information and the evolving inflation outlook

ASSET PURCHASES:

  • Governing Council will therefore continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the pandemic emergency purchase programme portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.

ECB Euro Area Real GDP Forecasts (Sep 2022):

  • 2022: 3.1% (prev. 2.8%)
  • 2023: 0.9% (prev. 2.1%)
  • 2024: 1.3% (prev. 2.1%)

ECB Euro Area HICP Forecasts (Sep 2022):

  • 2022: 8.1% (prev. 6.8%)
  • 2023: 5.5% (prev. 3.5%)
  • 2024: 2.3% (prev. 2.1%)

Full ECB statement can be accessed here

Here is a statement redline.

END

EUROPE./NON FERROUS METAL PRODUCERS

Metal producers like Aluminum and zinc warn EU leaders that the worsening energy crisis is existential threat to their future

(zerohedge)

Metal Producers Group Warns EU Leaders “Worsening Energy Crisis” Is “Existential Threat To Our Future”

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 04:15 AM

“We call on European and national leaders to look at all available options for safeguarding our companies and their future.”

That is the desperate plea from 40 CEOs representing Europe’s largest non-ferrous metals producers, who are urging emergency EU action to prevent permanent deindustrialisation from spiralling electricity and gas prices.

In March – as energy prices began their exponential rise after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine exposed Europe’s self-defeating ‘green’ energy policy –  the European Federation of Energy Traders, a trade body that counts BP, Shell and commodity traders Vitol and the margin-call stricken Trafigura as members, said the industry needed “time-limited emergency liquidity support to ensure that wholesale gas and power markets continued to function”.

According to the letter, the EFET wants state entities such as the European Investment Bank or central banks, such as the European Central Bank or the Bank of England, to provide support through lenders, to soften the impact of margin calls.

This last weekend we wrote that Switzerland and Finland had joined Germany, Sweden and Austria in bailing out their energy providers.

And while Germany still pretends it can somehow avoid a devastating crisis this winter besides bailing out Uniper, one of the country’s biggest utilities (after all, admission would make Trump’s 2018 warning accurate and prescient, and everyone knows that according to Western intellectual snobs Trump can’t possibly ever be correct), other European nations and industries are succumbing to what Zoltan Poszar dubbed a “supply-chain Minsky moment.”

Ahead of Friday’s emergency summit, Eurometaux – European Association of Metals – wrote to all of EU’s leaders to raise the alarm about Europe’s worsening energy crisis and its existential threat to our future.

“We are deeply concerned that the winter ahead could deliver a decisive blow to many of our operations, and we call on EU and Member State leaders to take emergency action to preserve their strategic electricity-intensive industries and prevent permanent job losses.”

Critically they warn that “50% of the EU’s aluminium and zinc capacity has already been forced offline due to the power crisis.”

The group is careful to ‘bend the knee’ to Europe’s insatiable need to virtue-signal “green”:

“We actively support your drive to improve Europe’s strategic autonomy for its energy transition, and we want to make the long-term investments needed into advancing and expanding our operations ready for 2050. “

But the 40 CEOs make it clear that that path leads to catastrophe:

“But all metals production needs affordable and available electricity and gas, whether aluminium and zinc today or lithium and cobalt tomorrow. We are deeply concerned that Europe faces a critical situation for the foreseeable future, with a perfect storm of sky-high electricity prices, no energy market liquidity due to insecure gas supplies, a continued nuclear and coal-phase out, and the remaining power sources being insufficient to cover market needs. “

They conclude by warning that “the long-term investment climate for all EU strategic metals operations and projects risks being decimated,” and – of course – called on EU leaders to bail out their industry, saying that the crisis requires a complete package of solutions, and no option should be left off the table in this unprecedented situation.

END 

UK//

Here comes Truss’ plan re high energy costs in Britain:

remove the tracking ban and guarantees to citizens of energy capping

(zerohedge)

UK PM Truss’ Plan ‘For Consumers’ Quietly Rescues Energy Traders, Provides Open-Ended Bailout For Utilities

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 08:15 AM

Update (0800ET): As we previewed below, Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled an estimated £150 billion UK energy plan.

“Extraordinary challenges call for extraordinary measures, ensuring that the United Kingdom is never in this situation again,” Truss said.

The plan includes, as we detailed below, a lift of the UK’s fracking ban, increased North Sea drilling, a renewed focus on accelerating offshore wind farms, a pre-announced £400 energy bill discount and green levies costing £150 would be temporarily removed, capping a typical household bill will remain at approximately its current level of £1,971.

Details about support for businesses were scant though FT said they would receive “equivalent support” to households — but only for six months.

After six months, Truss would focus on “vulnerable industries” such as ones that are energy-intensive are forced to shutter operations due to high energy prices.

RBC Capital Markets commented that the plan to cap energy bills would offer consumers relief who are squeezed by a historic cost-of-living crisis.

However, a “‘consumer armageddon’ next year should be avoided if energy price caps are broadly maintained,” the analysts wrote.

FT said the gross cost of the intervention would be around £150bn, including £90bn for households – which will be funded through debt.

However, while this has been politically positioned as ‘pro-consumer’, it’s really an indirect (or direct) bailout for energy traders and producers.

In order to fix annual electricity and natural gas bills for households at £2,500 over the next two years (given the expected increase to more than £3,500 in October, with some estimates showing that bills could top £6,000 next year), the energy price guarantee will plug the gap between the £2,500 bill to end-users and the soaring cost of energy provision by direct payments to energy providers.

As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas notes, citing the UK Cabinet Office’s actual policy paper on the government energy price guarantee:

“If a fixed commitment was made there would be an uncapped liability and overall scheme cost could escalate further.”

In other words, how does the UK government know where this stops? What is the cost of providing that energy rises to £10,000? More debt?

But it gets better – and even less publicized – as we warned back in March and reiterated this week, margin calls are an incomprehensibly massive problem – the UK Treasury will set up a £40 billion fund with the Bank of England to assist energy companies in access to liquidity.

The Energy Markets Financing Scheme will provide stability for energy and financial markets.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday told lawmakers that the issue was causing “strain” in the energy markets that may thin out trading.

So to summarize – while The Bank of England is tightening monetary policy at an almost unprecedented rates, the government is firehosing cash directly to specific industries. Sound familiar?

*  *  *

In November 2019 – following a series of confrontations between shale gas companies and communities who say the process is disruptive and dangerous, causing earth tremors – UK ministers halted all fracking in England.

The move to ban fracking across the country, which involves injecting water and sand into oil wells at high pressure, followed a study by the Oil and Gas Authority that concluded there are severe hazards for people living around fracking sites. Some of the pollution risks were toxic water and could cause earthquake-related damage.

US NatGas production had been declining dramatically since 2000…

But now, amid an unprecedented energy (and cost of living) crisis, freshly minted UK PM Liz Truss has said that Brits will never again be forced to pay exorbitant energy bills.

The Telegraph reports that Truss will unveil an energy support package that promises more North Sea drilling and ditches the fracking ban (Green levies will also be ditched and offshore wind farms will be accelerated).

“We will take action immediately to help people and businesses with bills but also take decisive action to tackle the root cause of these problems so that we are not in this position again.”

A Number 10 source told The Telegraph that the announcements will boost supply and make the UK more energy independent and resilient.

As The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith wrote in a detailed Twitter thread that the change can be implemented pretty rapidly.

Legislation is not needed, just a written ministerial statement.

How much of an impact this has depends on what Government does in 3 other areas

1/ planning decisions – (centralise them or leave local?)

2/ environment permits – (any effort to speed up approval?)

3/ seismology rules – (any increase in the old limit?)

On Wednesday night, a fracking industry source predicted that planning permission requests for new drilling would be submitted within weeks of the ban lifting.

Where could fracking first be seen again in the UK? An industry source I talked to pointed to two sites…

1/ Preston New Road in Fylde, Lancashire. (The Cudrilla site that was meant to be concreted in before a recent delay.)

2/ Springs Road in the East Midlands

While Truss has said local communities will need to back such schemes, fracking companies will offer 25 per cent reductions to their energy bills as an incentive.

As one might expect, fracking critics are already lashing out as New Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg – an advocate of the controversial gas extraction method – was placed in charge of the UK’s energy strategy.

Rees-Mogg has previously played down the seismic risk and called for it to be allowed to restart at a Cabinet meeting in February.

He has also warned against ‘climate alarmism’ and said he wants his constituents to have cheap energy ‘rather more than I would like them to have windmills’.

The heads of the Climate Change Committee (CCC) and the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), who warn that UK gas reserves are ‘too small’ to make a meaningful difference to bringing down prices for consumers:

“The price of gas is not affected by the relatively small amount that we can get, in addition to the North Sea or indeed from fracking.”

Rebecca Newsom, head of politics for Greenpeace UK, said Mr Rees-Mogg was the “last person who should be in charge of the energy brief,” adding that “appointing him to the brief now suggests the Tories have learned nothing from some years of energy policy incompetence.”

As The Telegr5aph concludes, Ms Truss’s team believe the steps are needed in the medium term to help make the country energy independent, and rules seen as holding back the construction of offshore wind farms could also be torn up as her government targets expansion.

We know someone who is going to be very upset…

END

SWITZERLAND

Citizens who overheat their homes in the winter could face hefty fines and 3 years in jail

(zerohedge)

Swiss Citizens Who Overheat Their Homes This Winter Could Face Hefty Fines & 3 Years In Jail

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 06:55 AM

After the Swiss and Finns joined the Germans, Austrians, and Swedes in bailing out there energy providers, who are facing trillions in margin calls; new legislation covering Switzerland’s energy supply will make heating homes to more than 19°C unlawful in the event of an energy shortage.

In addition, hot water should not be heated to more than 60 degrees, and portable electric heaters, saunas, and heated swimming pools are prohibited.

Remix News’ Thomas Brooke reports that Swiss citizens found to be in violation of the country’s new heating rules, which prohibit warming homes above 19°C this winter, could face daily fines of up to 3,000 Swiss francs and up to three years in prison.

To note, the World Health Organization has long held that a temperature no colder than 20°C is recommended for children, the elderly, and those with existing health conditions.

Markus Spörndli, a spokesperson of the Swiss Department of Economics (DEF) explained that “infringements of the law on the supply of the country are always misdemeanors, even […] crimes, and must be prosecuted ex officio by the cantons.”

The fine to be imposed on consumers found to be violating the new energy laws will range from 30 francs up to a maximum of 3,000 francs per day, Spörndli said, confirming the amount would be dependent on the nature of the offense and the economic situation of the perpetrator.

Furthermore, willful violations of the government guidelines could see consumers jailed for up to three years in prison, something Spörndli says the government hopes to avoid.

“The draft ordinances are based primarily on the fact that the vast majority of the population respects the laws,” he added.

Economy Minister Guy Parmelin told a press conference at the Federal Council last Wednesday that Switzerland is “not a police state,” but it is understood, as reported by Swiss news outlet Blick, that there may be spot checks undertaken to ensure people are complying with the rules.

Swiss cantons now have until Sept. 22 to discuss the proposals and address how they may be enforced, with some officials concerned they may be inundated with citizen complaints from nosy neighbors.

As such, the DEF only expects fines to be dished out “if the infringement was reported and checked and could then be proven.”

However, police chiefs believe enforcement will be difficult.

“There are still a few open questions that need to be clarified,” Fredy Fässler told Blick, adding that he does not want to see the energy police going door to door: “We want to apply the ordinance with discernment.”

As we previously highlighted, numerous other European countries are introducing similar restrictions in the face of a worsening energy crisis following the shut down of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

French economist Charles Gave said many more people aren’t buying the narrative that Vladimir Putin is solely to blame for the crisis.

“For the last 15 years, our European leaders have gone into a climate craze, promoting magic mirrors and windmills as the solution. It does not work. These solutions demand the same capacity in gas power plants,” Gave said.

end

Of  two minds  -Charles Hugh Smith: The EU’s Crisis Is Global

Inbox

Robert Hryniak12:06 PM (0 minutes ago)
to

Good article.
Globalization died the day Russia was cut off Swift. Everyone took note of this and reflected on their own positions.
While it is one thing to steal cash transfers and the like, it is completely devastating to lock in USD use and value by denial of a means to transfer money to pay for goods. Imagine your bank account frozen. Nations were shocked and frightened by this and suddenly became open for a change. The fools know not what they have done because sorry will not cut it. The global community will move on to find means of safe trade and payments and stores of monetary values without the grasp of the ship of fools.
Meanwhile ordinary people are scared of what is to come and have diminished belief in government narratives. Speaking to people across Europe and beyond today about realities is both revealing and alarming as to their feelings about the future.
When confidence is lost, all else follows. And in the case of Europe questions arise as to will be first to default, as expectations of dismal times grow. Buckle up!

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2022/09/the-eus-crisis-is-global.html

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/THE WEST

The last reactor has been disconnected
(Kimani/OilPrice.com)

What’s Happening At Ukraine’s Occupied Nuclear Plant?

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 02:00 AM

By Alex Kimani of Oilprice.com

Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom has reported that the final working reactor at the six-reactor facility at Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine was disconnected from Ukraine’s grid on Monday after Russian shelling disrupted power lines. The vast Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) – the largest in Europe – was captured by Russian forces in March, but is still run by Ukrainian engineers and staff.

Today, as a result of a fire caused by shelling, the (last working) transmission line was disconnected. As a result, (reactor) unit No. 6, which currently supplies the (plant’s) own needs, was unloaded and disconnected from the grid. Any repairs of the power lines are currently impossible- fighting is ongoing around the station,” Energoatom said in a statement on Telegram.

Ukraine is currently unable to repair the power lines because of heavy fighting and shelling raging around the station, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko has posted on Facebook. 

According to Galushchenko, fresh shelling hit soon after most of the inspectors from a mission by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), left the plant earlier on Monday. Reactors number five and six remain in use but are currently disconnected from the grid having suffered repeated disconnections due to shelling over the past fortnight.

The IAEA has said that ZNPP continues to receive the electricity it needs for safety from its sole operating reactor.

IAEA Mission

Ukraine’s state nuclear chief says it’s vital that a mission by UN inspectors to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant leads to the end of Russia’s occupation and has called for new missions to the site, including by UN peacekeepers. The IAEA is now drawing up a report after its inspectors crossed the front line last week and reached the imperiled facility that Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of shelling, risking a nuclear disaster. Two IAEA experts are now set to stay on at the facility indefinitely.

Petro Kotin, head of Energoatom, has told Reuters that the establishment of a permanent mission was a “good” step but that the “root of the problem” remains the occupation of the facility by Russian troops. He has described the situation at the nuclear plant as “very dangerous” and unprecedented because of the deterioration of the power lines linking the facility to the Ukrainian grid.

We need results from this mission actually. These results should (resolve) the whole situation: de-occupation. If not, then we must have some kind of viable results. This is a peculiar situation. All the experts and (IAEA chief Rafael) Grossi himself understand that … what is needed to be done is the de-occupation. Still they can’t directly propose this because of the limitation of the mandate,” he has said.

Winter without Zaporizhzhia

Experts think that Ukraine will definitely feel the lack of electricity from ZNNP, but some factors could alleviate the situation. 

Many people have left the country and large companies have shut down, so electricity consumption in Ukraine has dropped by 35%,” Olena Pavlenko, head of the DiXi Group analysis center, which monitors Ukraine’s energy market, has said. Pavlenko says that unless everyone suddenly returns in the winter, the country can manage the season without the nuclear power plant. 

Observers, however, stress that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is indispensable for the supply of power to the regions of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and parts of the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. They have warned that if the Russian occupiers continue their dangerous attempts to connect the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to the Russian power grid, these regions could lose power thus necessitating an emergency operation to connect them with spare capacities from the Ukrainian power grid.

Ukraine has four nuclear power plants with a total of 15 reactors. According to the state energy company Ukrenergo, nuclear power accounts for 50% to 60% of the electricity in the Ukrainian grid. ZNNP is the largest not only in Ukraine but in the whole of Europe. ZNNP has six power units with a total capacity of 6,000 MW, and was generating nearly half of the electricity produced by Ukraine’s nuclear power plants before the Russian attack.

According to Energoatom, Russian troops have been using ZNNP as a depot for military equipment and weapons.

The Russian military is shelling the nuclear power plant to destroy its infrastructure and disconnect it from Ukraine’s energy system,” Energoatom has said. Moscow has countered by blaming Ukraine for the shelling, claiming Russian troops are “protecting” the nuclear plant.

Mariia Tsaturian, responsible for communications and international cooperation at Ukrenergo, has told DW that she does not think that Russian occupiers will succeed in disconnecting the Zaporizhzhia plant from the Ukrainian grid and integrating it into the Russian grid via Crimea, noting that it is technically difficult and would take both sides.

To safely disconnect the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant from the Ukrainian grid and safely connect it to the power grid of occupied Crimea, it would take a technically complex desynchronization and subsequent synchronization, disconnecting one line at a time,” Tsaturian has told DW, adding that the frequency in the grid of 50 Hertz would have to be maintained at all times to avoid outages and other problems.

Ukraine disconnected its power grid from the Russian grid immediately upon Russian invasion on February 24 and fully synchronized it with the continental European grid ENTSO-E in mid-March. 

END

ISRAEL/IRAN

Israel delivers a threat to Iran

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

Israel’s Prime Minister Delivers Threat To Iran While Standing Next To F-35

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Standing next to an F-35 fighter jet, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on Tuesday issued a threat to Iran, warning the Islamic Republic that it could soon feel Israel’s “long arm.”

In a video posted on Twitter, Lapid said it was too early to know if his pressure on the Biden administration to scrap negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, has worked. “It is still too early to know if we have indeed succeeded in stopping the nuclear agreement, but Israel is prepared for every threat and every scenario,” Lapid said at the Nevatim airbase in southern Israel.

“If Iran continues to test us, it will discover Israel’s long arm and capabilities. We will continue to act on all fronts against terrorism and against those who seek to harm us,” Lapid added. 

The Israeli pressure does appear to be working as a revival of the JCPOA now seems unlikely since the US reacted negatively to Iran’s latest response in the ongoing negotiations, and the EU said the deal was in “danger”.

Lapid said in the video that he and President Biden agreed the US wouldn’t constrain Israel if it wanted to attack Iran.

“As President Biden and I agreed, Israel has full freedom to act as we see fit to prevent the possibility of Iran becoming a nuclear threat,” he said.

Lapid says that Israel’s concern is Iran becoming a nuclear-armed state, but if that were true, he would favor a revival of the JCPOA, which puts Iran’s civilian nuclear program under strict limits.

Israel’s biggest complaint about the deal is that it doesn’t last forever. But even after the JCPOA, Iran would still be a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Israel refuses to sign due to its secret nuclear weapons program and undeclared stockpile.

Israel has a history of carrying out covert attacks inside Iran and is suspected of being behind a string of mysterious deaths that occurred inside the country this past Spring.

end

Israeli news website Zman Yisrael states that the new nuclear deal between the uSA and Iran is off the table

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

US Tells Israel Nuclear Deal With Iran Is Off The Table For Now

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 08:45 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The Israeli news website Zman Yisrael said it has “learned” that a new nuclear deal between the US and Iran is off the table and will not be signed in the “foreseeable future.”

Zman Yisrael didn’t cite any sources but said that this message had been conveyed to Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid in recent conversations with President Biden and other US officials. Other major Israeli publications picked up on the story, as Bloomberg writes, “Top US officials have told Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid that a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers won’t be signed in the foreseeable future, The Times of Israel reported.”

Prospects for a revival of the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, seemed unlikely after the US slammed Iran’s latest response in the ongoing negotiations as “not encouraging” and “moving backwards.”

The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrel, has been brokering the negotiations, but said on Monday that he thinks the deal is “in danger.” The comments marked Borrel’s most pessimistic remarks about the talks they were recently restarted by the EU.

Israel is strongly opposed to the deal and has been pressuring the US to scrap negotiations. Lapid said on Tuesday that it was still “too early” to know if the pressure has worked and issued a fresh threat against Iran.

Lapid said Israel must do what it takes to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. But if that were his concern, he should favor a revival of the JCPOA as it puts Iran’s civilian nuclear program under strict limits and makes it subject to the most intrusive inspections in the world.

Lapid is expected to play up the fact that he averted a new Iran deal by pressuring the US as part of his election campaign. Israel’s election will be held on November 1, and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a contender.

Lapid criticized Netanyahu’s confrontational approach to the Obama administration when the JCPOA was first negotiated in 2015.

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES/

GLOBAL ISSUES

Paul Alexander..

Open in browserEXCESS mortality (all-cause mortality) in selected high-vaccinated nations
Canadian data was not understandable and collected fully for meaningful interpretation but concentrate on the 0% horizontal line for the excess mortality graph
Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 8
High-vaccinated nations:

end

Bannon: ‘They Will Have to Kill Me First’: Bannon Drops Wild, Defiant Statement In Response to Potential Criminal Indictment; ““They are coming after all of us, not only President Trump and myself.”

Bannon slammed the new charges by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg as “partisan political weaponization of the criminal justice system; am never going to stop fighting…I have not yet begun”

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 8

“The SDNY did the exact same thing in August 2020 to try to take me out of the election. It didn’t work then, it certainly won’t work now. This is nothing more than a partisan political weaponization of the criminal justice system,” Bannon continued.

‘They Will Have to Kill Me First’: Bannon Drops Wild, Defiant Statement In Response to Potential Criminal Indictment

VACCINE IMPACT/

Criminal FDA and CDC Ignore Law and Approve New COVID Vaccine Boosters with ZERO Testing on Humans

September 7, 2022 2:50 pm

The U.S. Government, via their alphabet “health” agencies the FDA and CDC, part of the Department of Health and Human Services, has done something this month (September, 2022) that has never been done before in the history of this country, and that is to authorize an untested vaccine into the American public, completely ignoring existing laws that prevent them from doing such a heinous criminal act, in order to use the American public as lab rats for a new version of the COVID vaccines. Dr. Meryl Nass has written the best summary of these crimes against humanity, and I am republishing it here. This is, first and foremost, a Spiritual War between Satan and his minions, and God Almighty, the Creator of Heaven and Earth. As I have previously written numerous times, vaccine products are the most evil products ever developed by the pharmaceutical cartels. They are the only products that are produced NOT to treat diseases, but are patterned after the insurance industry model of trying to sell you something to protect you against something bad that MIGHT happen to you in the future. Therefore, if you come down with something like the measles, you do not get a vaccine to treat your measles. If you get hepatitis, you do not get a vaccine to treat your hepatitis. You get vaccines in the hope that the promises of the pharmaceutical drug peddlers are true, that you will not get those diseases if you take their toxic vaccines, which they admit and the Supreme Court has affirmed, are “unavoidably unsafe,” because all vaccines have dangerous side effects and risks – this is not even a truth that is in dispute. As we have documented these past two years, the rushed-to-market COVID vaccines that were given emergency use authorization have resulted in more deaths and injuries than all other vaccines combined that were introduced into the market for the past 30+ years. They are evil. They are a mockery to God our Creator, who has promised to protect and heal those who trust and and have faith in him. A person who takes a vaccine based on the false promises of the criminal pharmaceutical companies, are basically denying their faith in God and his promise to take care of them, and doing the exact opposite: acting in FEAR, being afraid that they will “catch” some deadly disease that God cannot protect them from or heal them from. This mockery of God and his promises by promoting vaccines was demonstrated publicly yesterday, by the White House’s COVID advisor Dr. Ashish Jha, who said: “I really believe this is why God gave us two arms — one for the flu shot and the other one for the COVID shot!” The White House has ordered 171 million doses of these new, illegal and untested COVID booster shots, 105 million doses from Pfizer and 66 million doses from Moderna. That is enough to inject into half of the American population. Will you trust your government and the promises of the pharmaceutical industry, or will you say “no thanks, I would rather trust God and put my life in his hands”?

Read More…


Dutch Farmer’s Protests Lead to Agriculture Minister of Climate Change’s Resignation

September 7, 2022 9:23 pm

The Netherlands’ agricultural minister Henk Staghouwer has been forced to resign following widespread protests from Dutch farmers over his radical climate agenda that seeks to destroy their livelihoods. Staghouwer was leading the Dutch agriculture ministry’s climate policy that involved confiscating farms in a forced government buy-out scheme. In the wake of the huge protests from farmers, Staghouwer has now been forced to step down. He told the Dutch cabinet that pushback from farmers had meant he would not be able to meet a September deadline for rolling out the government’s radical green policy, the AP reported. The climate agenda involves cutting nitrogen emissions from the nation’s farming sector to the point where it made it impossible for farms to continue operating. The initiative includes a $24.2 billion scheme to buy out local farmers and facilitate the transition away from intensive farming practices. The push provoked mass demonstrations by farmers across the continent. “Farmers and fishermen need certainty,” Staghouwer said in a statement to his ministry Monday evening, NL Times reported. The farming sector faced a massive upheaval due to emissions reduction goals, he added. In July, over 40,000 farmers took to the streets in protest of the policy, blocking roads with tractors and defacing government officials’ homes. Sympathizers elsewhere in Europe staged protests in solidarity with the Dutch farmers, arguing that such a policy is counterproductive amid highly elevated inflation levels and food shortages.

Read More…


S

VACCINE INJURY

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

END   

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Europe Is Buying All The Russian Oil It Can Before Banning It

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 10:07 AM

By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com

Three months from now, an EU-wide embargo on Russian crude oil imports will kick in, shutting off almost all shipments of the commodity from Russia to Europe. But right now, Europe is importing over 1 million barrels of Russian crude daily and has been doing so for the last month. Someone is stocking up before the taps turn dry.

While they publicly condemn Russia for its actions in Ukraine and equally publicly assure their constituents that sanctions are working, European (and other) politicians make no mention of the continuing Russian oil purchases.

Yet, Russia is exporting some 3.32 million barrels of crude daily by sea, Bloomberg calculations have shown, which means Europe is buying a third of that, while it still can. And this means that nothing has changed since June when the embargo was approved, and Europe will have to find alternative oil suppliers at a time of likely higher prices.

Right now, prices are slumping because of new lockdowns in China and expectations of rate hikes by central banks, but once the embargo door shuts, chances are that prices will rebound just when Europe finds it most painful. And that is exactly why it’s stocking up now on the oil it’s about to ban. 

It’s not only oil that Europe is stocking up on, either. All fossil fuels are in greater and more urgent demand on the continent than they have been for years. The FT called it “the unavoidable evil of wartime fossil fuels” in a recent report and the European Union has kept repeating that the emission reduction plans are still in place although it is increasingly looking like they’ve taken the back seat to energy security.

Exports of oil from Russia to northern Europe rose particularly markedly in the first week of this month, the Bloomberg calculations showed, suggesting India’s Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, who told CNBC this week that “I said the Europeans buy more in one afternoon than I do in a quarter. I’d be surprised if that is not the condition still.”

Puri’s comments came in response to a question about criticism leveled at India for continuing to buy crude from Russia despite Western sanctions and condemnation for the invasion of Ukraine.

The Indian top oil official took things a step further, as well. Asked about whether he had any moral qualms about importing oil from Russia, he said “No, there’s no conflict. I have a moral duty to my consumer. Do I as a democratically elected government want a situation where the petrol pump runs dry?”

It would be difficult to argue this point for any politician, even a European one.

One might reasonably argue that the European Union is not an authoritarian state in which the government tells commodity traders where to buy their oil from. However, one could equally argue that the bloc is trying to turn into precisely that sort of an authoritarian state.

Earlier this month, the FT reported that the European Commission had drafted a document seeking sweeping powers over European businesses. The sweeping powers, if approved, would include the “powers to require businesses to stockpile supplies and break delivery contracts in order to shore up supply chains in the event of a crisis such as the coronavirus pandemic.”

Deciding what constitutes a crisis would also be the prerogative of the European Commission under this draft document. Businesses have not exactly welcomed the suggestion that they could be told what to produce, stockpile, and who they trade with by the EC, so the sweeping powers are far from a certain thing. Yet, there is more than one signal the EU is moving into a more centralized-intervention style of government amid the energy crisis.

Right now, Brussels is mulling over direct intervention into energy markets because of the tidal wave of margin calls looming over an already struggling energy industry. Bloomberg reported earlier this month that the suspension of power derivatives was among the options, along with a cap on the price of gas used for power generation.

The power market has a lot more to do with the price of gas than oil, but it’s worth recalling that some European utilities switched from gas to oil for power generation when gas prices skyrocketed earlier this year. Prices have not exactly returned to normal yet, so oil continues to be a viable alternative for power generation. And in three months, imports are going to take a 1-million-bpd dive. Unless, of course, buyers find an alternative.

In all fairness, alternative sources of crude oil are abundant. Middle Eastern producers, for example, would be only too happy to sell their oil to Europe. So would Nigeria and Angola. Yet they would be setting the price. One cannot help but wonder if the European Union will start threatening OPEC with a price cap, too.

end 

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

AUSTRALIA

Australia pivots after 5 straight interest rate rises

Australia Is First Central Bank To Warn Pivot Is Coming

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 11:30 AM

There is a reason why despite fundamentals, yields and newsflow screaming for lower prices, US equities simply refuse to sell off: it’s because investors know that the moment the Fed pivots dovish and capitulates on its tightening cycle (a move which could take place at any moment since it is as much political as it is financial), risk will explode limit up. And so, even though the US is sliding into a recession – or rather because the US is sliding into a recession – stocks remain sticky to the upside, waiting for the inevitable pivot.

And an advance look of what said pivot would look like came this morning from Australia, where bond yields tumbled and stocks soared after the country’s top central banker opened the door on Thursday to slowing the bank’s policy tightening after five rate increases in as many months, sparking a rally in bonds as markets scaled back bets on further aggressive moves.

Earlier this week, the RBA lifted interest rates by half a point on Tuesday to a seven-year high of 2.35%, bringing the increase since May to a steep 225 basis points.

In a speech on the policy outlook, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said further rate increases would be needed to contain inflation but the RBA Board was not on a pre-set path and was aware rates had already risen sharply.

“We are conscious that there are lags in the operation of monetary policy and that interest rates have increased very quickly,” said Lowe adding that he recognizes that “all else equal, the case for a slower pace of increase in interest rates becomes stronger as the level of the cash rate rises.”

Lowe also commented that demand has to grow more slowly to bring it back in line with supply and there is a significant demand element to higher inflation, while he added it is very possible that wage growth does not pick up much further and said quantitative tightening is not on the agenda.

Lowe emphasised the Board was committed to bring inflation back to its 2%-3% target band, having been surprised by this year’s spike in consumer prices to a 21-year peak of 6.1%.  He said it was important the current high inflation not get built into expectations for price- and wage-settings, especially since the Australian housing market faces an apocalypse should rising rate expectations become ingrained, and added that, so far, measures of expectations were still consistent with a return to the 2%-3% band.

Lowe conceded the RBA had been badly wrongfooted by the surge in inflation in recent months and said it was important for the bank to learn from those mistakes. Australia’s Labor government in July launched an independent review into the RBA’s structure and policies, and how it handled emergency stimulus during the pandemic.

The central bank has come in for much criticism on its forecast mistakes, particularly Lowe’s prediction in late 2021 that rates would likely not rise until 2024.

On Thursday, Treasurer Jim Chalmers was forced to reject calls for Lowe to be fired, saying he was not going to take “pot shots” at the independent central bank. Asked about the criticism after his speech, Lowe said: “I have no plans to resign. Look at how much better the economy is now.” Maybe check back on the economy in a few months how much better it is then.

Just the mere hint of a possible slowdown saw odds on another hike of 50 basis points in October surge, with rates now seen more likely to reach 3.0% by December, rather than 3.25%. Three-year bond yields tumbled 15 basis points to 3.03% before bouncing modestly and the Australian dollar lost 0.5% to $0.6732 .

Lowe’s comments echoed a similar dovish comment from Brainard yesterday who said that at some point “risks will become more two-sided…at some point,” that with many global central banks raising rates at a historically fast clip that it could “…create risks associated with overtightening” associated with “uncertainly around the pace at which the effects of tighter financial conditions are working their way through aggregate demand.”

The commentary from Brainard, and subsequently Lowe, was enough to spark a massive short squeeze with Nomura’s Charlie McElligott saying that “you are again seeing how much market conditioning has been built over the past 15 years + of central banks being so tilted “asymmetrically DOVISH,” again almost “willing” the “dovish pivot” to occur, and for risk-assets to then rally in conjunction.” And at some point said Dovish pivot will take place not just in Australia but in the US too… just not before the midterms.

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0026 UP  0.0029 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL MIXED 

USA/ YEN 143.38   DOWN  0.715 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1558 UP   0.0038

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 10.71 POINTS OR 0.33%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 189.65 PTS OR 1.00% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  1.81%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 189.65 PTS OR  1.00% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.71 PTS  OR 0.33% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.81% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 634.98 OR 2.31%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1726.00

silver:$18.65

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 109.34 DOWN 49  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.73% UP 10  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.243% DOWN 0    AND 1/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.83%// UP 11  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.95  UP 10   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.71% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.9959 DOWN  .0038   or 38 basis points

USA/Japan: 143.89 DOWN .197 OR YEN UP 197 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1501 DOWN.0019 OR 19 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0016 OR 16 BASIS pts  to 1.3114

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.9574 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.9632

TURKISH LIRA:  18.24  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.243

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.280% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.442 UP 2  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 109.88 UP 5 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 24.23 PTS OR  0.33%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 11.65 POINTS OR 0.09%

Paris CAC CLOSED  UP 19.98 PTS OR 0.33% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 68.40 OR  0.87%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 188.72PTS OR  0.88%

WTI Oil price 83.26  12: EST

Brent Oil:  89.03 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  60.77  UP 0  AND 2/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.71`

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9994 DOWN .0004     OR  4 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1487 DOWN  .0025 or  25 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.99 DOWN 0.108//YEN UP 10 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3092 DOWN 0.0037  (CDN dollar, UP 37 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 83.32

Brent OIL:  88.81

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.292 UP 3 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.448  UP 4  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.24

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.73  UP 0 AND    6 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 192.52 PTS OR 0.61 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 61.81 PTS OR 0.50%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 23.89 DOWN 0.75 PTS (3.04)%

GLD: $158.33 DOWN 0.95 OR 0.59%

SLV/ $17.03 UP 03 CENTS OR 0.18%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Negative-Delta Squeeze Sustains Stocks As Hawknado Hammers Rates Higher

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 04:01 PM

ECB rate-hikes (and Lagarde jawboning even more tightening) combined with Fed’s Powell reiterating his hawkish stance towards US monetary policy (inflation-fighting trumps recession-induction) sent rate-hike expectations higher…

Source: Bloomberg

and pushed the odds of a 75bps hike in two weeks to almost certain…

Source: Bloomberg

But the unwind of the monster negative delta…

…and extreme short positioning provided the floor under every dip today…

Which allowed the massive short-squeeze from yesterday to extend (most shorted up over 8% from yesterday’s open)…

Source: Bloomberg

At around 1200ET, a headline hinted that ECB would do 75bps at its next meeting too and that dragged stocks down after they squeezed higher off Powell’s earlier comments, but that also saw the negative-delta-squeeze bid lift stocks back again and it held all day leaving all the majors green…

The Nasdaq is still down 6.5% from Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech (S&P -5%), but all the US Majors are holding gains on the week…

Treasury yields ended higher today after ramping higher after Powell (up 5-6bps across the curve on the day), erasing yesterday’s drop…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury breakevens have tumbled, indicating that inflation is no longer a tailwind for the dollar. The two-year US inflation gauge is 2.19%, well below its 4.97% peak in March and about a percent above its pre-pandemic average. It is also nearing the Fed’s inflation target of 2% and is below the five-year, five-year inflation swap rate of ~2.50%.

Source: Bloomberg

The drop coincides with a more than 30% drop in West Texas since its June peak of $114 per barrel. The current price of ~$83 per barrel is slightly above the 2018 OPEC+ agreed ceiling rate during the Trump administration. Global inflation pressures may drop further if central banks elsewhere do the heavy lifting on rate hikes.

The dollar ended the day flat – though chopped around on Powell and Lagarde comments…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was relatively quiet today finding support at $19,000 intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended lower on the day after giving back ovenight gains following Lagarde and Powell’s hawkishness…

Oil managed gains on the day but remains well below its ‘death cross’ levels from yesterday…

Oil’s plunged has helped drag breakevens dramatically lower and send real yields soaring…

Finally, we note that US Financial Conditions reached their mid-June peak (tight) this week and have reversed lower (eased) – likely on the back of real yields collapsing…

Source: Bloomberg

Will the massive negative delta unwind – as we saw from mid June to mid August – replay and once again force The Fed’s hand into ultra-hawkish jawboning?

One thing of note for equity market bulls…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1567662622048223232&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fnegative-delta-squeeze-sustains-stocks-hawknado-hammers-rates-higher&sessionId=042e372444e270fb18062a09dd6154d604e62862&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

Be careful what you wish for.

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//

Stocks & Bonds Dive After Powell Comments

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 09:23 AM

Fed Chair Powell offered nothing new for ‘Fed Pivot’ bulls to cling desperately to during his Q&A with The Cato Institute this morning.

“History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.”

“We need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing and we have to keep at it until the job is done.”

That prompted an unwind of yesterday’s short-squeeze-driven spike in stocks and bond yields which the narrative-creators pinned on Lael Brainard’s hope to not over-tighten.

Futures have tumbled…

And bond yields spiked…

As rate-hike expectations push higher…

With the odds of 75bps in two weeks now back at 85%…

The pain is not going to stop yet.

END

THIS AFTERNOON

Hawkish Post-ECB Leaks Send Stocks Tumbling To Session Lows

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 12:20 PM

Update (1215ET): After huge negative delta squeezers lifted stocks off the post-Powell dip earlier this morning, ECB headlines confirming what they said earlier seems to have shocked the market back into a selling frenzy.

In its usual manner, leaks emerged from officials to reinforce the desired narrative from The ECB and as Bloomberg reports, according to people familiar with the debate, European Central Bank officials are prepared to raise interest rates by another three-quarters of a point at October’s meeting if the inflation outlook warrants an additional big step.

This pushed stocks back into the red for the day.

That ‘leak’ should not have surprised anyone since it was exactly what Lagarde had said earlier in her press conference.

*  *  *

Fed Chair Powell offered nothing new for ‘Fed Pivot’ bulls to cling desperately to during his Q&A with The Cato Institute this morning.

“History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.”

Powell basically reiterated his strongly hawkish perspective from Jackson Hole

“We need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing and we have to keep at it until the job is done.”

From Ira Jersey, chief US interest-rate strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence:

“Following the July Fed minutes, we noted that the Fed is worried about causing a recession, but it fears not hiking enough and not getting inflation expectations down. Powell just reiterated this sentiment at the Cato Institute.

This sentiment solidifies our flattening view, and tactically, we may have seen the steepest (least inverted) 2-year/10-year curve for now. The current flattening move may continue and re-test the recent lows.

All of which prompted an unwind of yesterday’s short-squeeze-driven spike in stocks and bond yields which the narrative-creators pinned on Lael Brainard’s hope to not over-tighten.

Futures have tumbled…

And bond yields spiked…

As rate-hike expectations push higher…

With the odds of 75bps in two weeks now back at 85%…

The pain is not going to stop yet.

ii) USA DATA//

US Continuing Jobless Claims Hit 5-Month-Highs

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 08:36 AM

The number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits dropped to 222k last week, dragging the 4-week average lower – the lowest level since the start of June. Notably non-seasonally-adjusted initial claims remain very modestly off record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

However, continuing jobless claims rose once again and is now at its highest since early April.

The decoupling from the BLS data remains confounding…

end

Good indicator that the economy is in a severe recession right now

(zerohedge)

Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Slows As New Auto Loans Stumble On Soaring Rates

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 03:26 PM

One month after the 2nd biggest monthly increase in consumer credit in US history, which in turn was just two months after the biggest surge in credit card and student/auto loans on record, in July the growth in consumer credit unexpectedly slowed to just $23.8 billion, down sharply from $39.1 billion in June, and the second lowest monthly increase of the year…

… not to mention the biggest miss to consensus expectations ($32 billion for July) since January.

And while the slowdown was partially the result of some $10.9 billion in revolving credit in June, which actually is not that bad at all, and was one of the highest monthly increases on record, and the 4th highest of 2022…

… the big surprise was the sudden slowdown in non-revolving credit growth, which was cut in half from $24 billion in June – one of the highest on record – to just $12.9 billion, the lowest since January.

And while we will have to wait until the next month to get the breakdown of student vs auto loans that make up the non-revolving total, it is almost certain that in July we saw the first direct impact of soaring interest rates on auto (and to a lesser extent college) loans, which are suddenly becoming prohibitively expensive. A few more months of this collapse in demand and the impact on the US auto sector could be dire, but at least new and used car prices will plunge allowing the Fed to start hinting at the coming pivot and making the rich richer all over again…

iii)USA economic commentaries

SWAMP STORIES

IRS Official in Charge Of 87,000 New Agents Played Key Role In Obama-Era Targeting Scandal

WEDNESDAY, SEP 07, 2022 – 06:45 PM

Authored by Fred Lucas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

House Republicans say they will keep a “watchful eye” on the Internal Revenue Service official tapped to run the centralized office housing 87,000 incoming new agents because she has ties to the IRS’ targeting of tea party groups during the Obama administration.

The Daily Signal first reported that IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig had appointed Nikole Flax, commissioner in charge of the IRS’ Large Business & International Division, to lead the establishment of the agency’s centralized office.

In 2014, Flax was among seven IRS employees who said their computers had crashed, making it impossible for them to provide information sought by the House Ways and Means Committee in investigating the agency’s targeting of tea party and other conservative groups.

Flax made 31 visits to the Obama White House from July 2010 through May 2013.

“Every American should be concerned that a key player in the IRS’ targeting of conservative groups and ensuing cover-up has been tapped to oversee the implementation of Democrats’ tax and spending bill,” Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), ranking member of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, told The Daily Signal.

 Lois Lerner Connection

In an email sent May 8, 2013, Lois Lerner, head of the IRS’ tax-exempt organizations unit when the scandal erupted, told Flax that she received a call about working with the Justice Department to pursue certain political organizations that “lied” on IRS forms.

Lerner was the central figure of the Obama administration’s IRS targeting scandal. She said her computer also crashed.

Lerner invoked her Fifth Amendment right not to incriminate herself in testimony before the House Oversight and Reform Committee. After being placed on paid administrative leave, she retired later in 2013.

The IRS didn’t respond directly to the concerns raised by Flax’s background. Instead, the agency referred The Daily Signal to Rettig’s memo to staff announcing that Flax would run a new “centralized office” to implement elements of the tax and spending legislation that Democrats dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act. The package, signed into law by President Joe Biden, provides $80 billion for the IRS to add almost 87,000 new agents.

Despite the computer crash during the congressional investigation of IRS targeting, Rettig said that Flax would work with Congress and others in her new role leading the effort.

Nikole has an extensive background in a variety of roles across the IRS since 2008,” Rettig’s memo says, adding: “Her wide range of experience will serve her well as she works with internal and external stakeholders, including Treasury, Congress, IRS employees and taxpayers.”

Rettig’s memo to IRS staffers about the new office also quotes Flax.

“This is a historic time for the IRS, and we are working to move quickly to begin work on the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law earlier this week,” Flax is quoted as saying. “This is an exciting opportunity, and we will be moving quickly with our work.”

Flax became director of the IRS Large Business & International Division in 2021. Previously, she had been deputy commissioner for the division since 2017.

Flax also is a former chief of staff to IRS Commissioner Steve Miller and was assistant deputy IRS commissioner for services and enforcement.

Republicans on the House Oversight and Reform Committee will monitor the IRS’ actions, Comer said.

“This entrenched bureaucrat will oversee the establishment of a new, centralized IRS office and the hiring of up to 87,000 IRS agents, which raises concerns that the Swamp could weaponize new resources to target and harass Americans,” Comer said in a statement provided to The Daily Signal.

“Oversight Committee Republicans will keep a watchful eye on this office. If there is a whiff of government abuse, we will work to hold bad actors accountable,” he said.

‘Frequent Visitor to White House’

In 2014, then-House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) accused the IRS of “lying” by attempting to hide two years of emails from Lerner and other officials.

“Despite their attempt to bury the missing Lerner emails on page 15 of a 27-page letter that arrived late Friday, we now know documents from other central figures, like Nikole Flax, are missing,” Camp said in a joint statement with Rep. Charles Boustany (R-La.), then-chairman of the Ways and Means oversight subcommittee.

The two Republican lawmakers added:

The fact that Ms. Flax was a frequent visitor to the White House and the Eisenhower Executive Office Building only raises more questions. Who was she visiting at the White House and what were they talking about? Was she updating the White House on the targeting or was she getting orders?

“These are answers we don’t yet have, because—surprise, surprise—a few computers crashed. Plot lines in Hollywood are more believable than what we are getting from this White House and the IRS.”

When testifying before the House Ways and Means Committee in 2014, IRS Commissioner John Koskinen defended Flax, saying she had two IRS computers and that her IRS emails should be intact.

“Those press releases with regard to Nicole Flax were inaccurate and misleading and it demonstrates why we’ll provide this committee a full report … when it is completed,” Koskinen told the committee. “We are not going to dribble out the information and have it played out in the press.”

A string of audits and congressional investigations found that the IRS improperly targeted tea party and other conservative groups during the 2010 and 2012 election cycles by holding up their applications for tax-exempt status.

Chronology of IRS Scandal

In May 2013, the Treasury Department’s inspector general for tax administration released a report asserting that in the 2010 and 2012 election cycles, the IRS “used inappropriate criteria that identified tea party and other organizations applying for tax-exempt status based upon their policy positions.”

That finding prompted investigations by the House Ways and Means Committee and the House Oversight and Reform Committee, which concluded in 2014 that top IRS officials knew of the targeting of conservative groups and decided against informing Congress.

In 2015, the Senate Finance Committee released its findings that Lerner’s personal and political views played a role. The report said:

“Lerner orchestrated a process that subjected these applicants to multiple levels of review by numerous components within the IRS, thereby ensuring that they would suffer long delays and be required to answer burdensome and unnecessary questions.”

Another report, from the Government Accountability Office in 2016, stated that the IRS still might be targeting some nonprofits unfairly “based on an organization’s religious, educational, political, or other views.”

Nevertheless, Justice Department prosecutor Barbara Bosserman—who had donated a total of $6,750 to Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns and the Democratic National Committee from 2004 to 2012—declined to press charges after investigating the matter.

The IRS ultimately settled lawsuits with several tea party and other conservative groups in 2017 and 2018.

In 2016, Congress approved a provision to prevent the IRS from doing anything to target organizations or groups applying for tax-exempt status.

Reprinted by permission from The Daily Signal, a publication of The Heritage Foundation.

end

Judge Orders Fauci, Other Top Officials To Produce Records For Big Tech–Government Censorship Lawsuit

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 12:30 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Dr. Anthony Fauci, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, and other top Biden administration officials who were resisting efforts to obtain their communications with Big Tech companies must hand over the records, a federal judge ruled on Sept. 6.

U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty, a Trump appointee, ordered the government to quickly produce documents after it was sued by the attorneys general of Louisiana and Missouri over alleged collusion with Big Tech firms such as Facebook. The initial tranche of discovery, released on Aug. 31, revealed that more than 50 government officials across a dozen agencies were involved in applying pressure to social media companies to censor users.

But some of the officials refused to provide any answers or answer all questions posed by the plaintiffs. Among them: Fauci, who serves as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden.

The government claimed that Fauci shouldn’t be required to answer all questions or provide records in his capacity as NIAID director or in his capacity as Biden’s chief medical adviser. It also attempted to withhold records and responses from Jean-Pierre.

In the new ruling on Sept. 6 breaking the stalemate, Doughty said both Fauci and Jean-Pierre needed to comply with the interrogatories and record requests.

First, the requested information is obviously very relevant to Plaintiffs’ claims. Dr. Fauci’s communications would be relevant to Plaintiffs’ allegations in reference to alleged suppression of speech relating to the lab-leak theory of COVID-19’s origin, and to alleged suppression of speech about the efficiency of masks and COVID-19 lockdowns. Jean-Pierre’s communications as White House Press Secretary could be relevant to all of Plaintiffs’ examples,” Doughty said, referring to examples such as the suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop story ahead of the 2020 presidential election and censorship of claims COVID-19 originated in a Chinese laboratory.

Doughty ordered Fauci and Jean-Pierre to comply within 21 days.

Fauci, additionally, must provide complete answers to questions regarding his role as NIAID director.

“We know from the previous round of discovery that efforts to censor the speech of those who disagree with the government on covid policy have come from the top. Americans deserve to know Anthony Fauci’s participation in this enterprise, especially since he has publicly demanded that specific individuals, including two of our clients, Jay Bhattacharya and Martin Kulldorff, be censored on social media,” Jenin Younes, litigation counsel for the New Civil Liberties Alliance and a lawyer for some of the plaintiffs, said in a statement.

“It is time for Dr. Fauci to answer for his flagrant disregard for Americans’ constitutional rights and civil liberties.”

HHS

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the parent agency of NIAID, also tried to avoid giving answers or documents in the legal battle, even though discovery from Big Tech companies revealed key HHS officials as participating in what plaintiffs have described as a “censorship enterprise.”

Both HHS and the Department of Homeland Security objected to attempts to get the agencies to search widely for relevant records, describing the attempts as “unduly burdensome and disproportionate to the needs of the case.” HHS identified NIAID, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Office of the Surgeon General as three subagencies that would likely have the records sought.

Plaintiffs said that HHS was effectively exempting itself from the discovery process.

Doughty agreed with HHS that conducting a search for relevant records among all 80,000 HHS employees would be overly burdensome, but said the HHS employees identified in documents from Meta, Facebook’s parent company, as engaging with the company needed to respond to the discovery requests.

He ordered the HHS officials, including the HHS deputy digital director, to provide responses within 21 days.

Amended Complaint

Government officials identified 45 officials across five agencies as officials who communicate with social media companies about misinformation and censorship. But emails and other documents provided by Meta, Twitter, and Google in the case show a number of other officials, including officials at other agencies and the White House, were involved in the effort.

Read more here…

THE KING REPORT

The King Report September 8, 2022 Issue 6839Independent View of the News
  BOJ Boosts Bond Buying as Yields Advance Toward Policy Limit
The Bank of Japan said it would boost scheduled bond purchases as the intensifying Treasuries selloff puts upward pressure on global yields and weakens the yen.  The BOJ said it would buy 550 billion yen ($3.8 billion) of five-10 year bonds at its regular operations, up from 500 billion yen scheduled. The move comes as Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield hit 0.245%, approaching the 0.25% upper limit of the BOJ’s tolerated trading band…  https://t.co/xabClkVu91
 
Energy crisis an ‘existential threat’ to EU metal production -Eurometaux
The European Union needs to reduce power costs in the region to prevent the permanent closure of metal producing plants in the region, which would increase reliance on imports with higher carbon footprints, industry association Eurometaux said.  About 50% of EU aluminium and zinc production capacity “has already been forced offline due to the power crisis”, Eurometaux said in a letter to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/energy-crisis-an-existential-threat-eu-metal-production-eurometaux-2022-09-07/
 
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model reduced its Q3 GDP estimate to 1.36% from 2.59%.
 
Stocks rallied on Wednesday morning because Nasdaq had declined for 7 consecutive sessions, and there was an Apple Event at 13:00 ET.  Apple was expected to launch iPhone 14.
 
ESUs were down sharply during most of Asian trading.  After a modest rally into the European open, ESUs and stocks sank when Europe opened.  Traders, of course, bought the opening dip, creating a bottom at 3:30 ET.  After a 30-handle ESU spike by 4:02 ET, ESUs and stocks then traded in a tight range until they commenced a decline shortly after the US bond market opened at 8 ET.
 
The pre-NYSE rally commenced right on schedule.  ESUs and stocks stair-stepped higher, abetted by pattern buying for the Apple Event until 11:02 ET.  ESUs and stocks then went inert until they broke lower at 12:15 ET.  The drop ended at 12:25 ET.  It was time to get long for the Apple Event at 13:00 ET.
 
ESUs surged 21 handles by 12:42 ET.  After a minor retreat, ESUs relentlessly plodded higher and hit a peak of 3988.75 at 15:30 ET.  ESUs and stocks then rolled over, falling modestly into the close.
 
Apple’s biggest iPhone surprise: No U.S. price hikes
Apple said the entry level iPhone 14 will start at $799, the same amount that it initially charged for last year’s iPhone 13. The successor to the iPhone 13 Pro, the iPhone 14 Pro, remains at $999. Apple’s highest-end iPhone, the Pro Max, still starts at $1099 for the new version…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/07/apples-biggest-iphone-surprise-no-us-price-hikes.html
 
Bad News Is Great: Stocks Hit Session Highs After Beige Book Downgrades Growth, Sees “Softening” Demand, Moderating Price Growth
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bad-news-great-stocks-hit-session-highs-after-beige-book-downgrades-growth-sees-softening
 
WTI Oil sank as much as 5.9% to a low of $81.70 on recession angst.  The dollar declined smartly; precious metals rallied sharply.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Equities rallied on oversold buying and pattern buying for the Apple Event
Apple and Fangs led the rally
A rebound rally from an extremely oversold condition commenced
 
Negative aspects of previous session
The DJTA was negative all session
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Bonds rallied sharply; oil tumbled; copper & aluminum hit 17-month lows on recession angst
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: UpLast Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3957.93
Previous session High/Low3987.89; 3906.03
 
Fed’s Mester warns high rents mean inflation may not yet have peaked http://reut.rs/3RunOKX
 
Fed’s Mester Warns Against Declaring Early Victory on Inflation (Addressed MBS QT)
The central bank is also reducing its balance sheet by up to $95 billion a month… Mester repeated that she would support selling mortgage-backed securities at some point to help return the Fed’s portfolio to one that invests primarily in Treasuries. She also said she is more concerned about how the balance sheet reduction affects liquidity in financial markets than she is with determining how much that process affects interest rates… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-mester-warns-against-declaring-140000711.html
 
Many pundits cannot cogitate why the dollar is so strong versus the yen.  The following article explains the intricacies of the repo market and avers that the immense leverage in the global financial system is strengthening the dollar.  The highest quality collateral is US Treasuries.  The mind-addling leverage in the global financial system is producing a regular shortage of collateral, which is creating habitual ‘fails’ in the repo market.  Yes, Virginia, this was a huge problem in 2008 and in several years thereafter.
 
It’s Not Just the Japanese Who Can’t Afford to Wait for the Inevitable Truth
What’s wrongly called the “yen carry trade” is Japanese banks redistributing euro dollars on a collateralized basis. Given the inherent maturity mismatch when doing this, Tokyo’s big firms end up short dollars and short collateral.  Thus, any dollar shortage which strongly implicates collateral problems (isn’t this all of them?) comes out in something like repo fails, tied now closely together with JPY as Japanese banks struggle mightily under the weight of being eurodollar-ed…
    In terms of repo and collateral, this reluctance to look deeper was exposed by the Treasury market on October 15, 2014. To this day, the government claims it was nothing more than computerized trades run amok. In its multi-agency report issued in July 2015, while admitting “no single cause is apparent in the data”…  Those aspects tell us next to nothing about why everything happened, merely what data shows when it did. As you might surmise, the word “collateral” does not appear once, not a single instance in its seventy-six fluffed up pages…
    Though it was never mentioned anywhere in any official source, repo fails had indeed surged in the months leading up to October 2014. Throughout June and July, weekly and average fails more than doubled – right as the US$’s exchange value began its “unexpected”, seemingly superstitious surge at the time blamed on looming Fed rate hikes… Fails would remain elevated for months, making an especially conspicuous rise at the end of Q3 2014 and then again two weeks later, which just so happened to be the week of October 15…
    These updated collections collect nothing about collateral transformation, the very thing which nearly ended AIG but did end the pre-crisis era for money, markets, and economy…
    “Imagine an insurance company that wants to engage in a derivatives transaction. To do so, it is required to post collateral with a clearinghouse, and, because the clearinghouse has high standards, the collateral must be ‘pristine’ – that is, it must be in the form of Treasury securities. However, the insurance company doesn’t have any unencumbered Treasury securities available-all it has in unencumbered form are some junk bonds. Here is where the collateral swap comes in. The insurance company might approach a broker-dealer and engage in what is effectively a two-way repo transaction, whereby it gives the dealer its junk bonds as collateral, borrows the Treasury securities, and agrees to unwind the transaction at some point in the future. Now the insurance company can go ahead and pledge the borrowed Treasury securities as collateral for its derivatives trade.”…
    The 12 minutes of illiquid buying on October 15, again a ‘buying panic’, clearly had nothing to do with computer trading.”  In short, it was a margin or really collateral call which provoked a reverse of too many collateral-for-collateral swaps, leaving those suddenly exposed to panic-bid whatever good and useful collateral they could get at whatever price it took to get it…
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/09/02/its_not_just_the_japanese_who_cant_afford_to_wait_for_the_inevitable_truth_851440.html
 
@JeffSnider_AIP: FRBNY (NY Feed) altered FR2004C call sheet from Primary Dealers in Jan ’22 to gather more information on repo market and collateral. What did they find? Just what we thought they would – the need to go further into the shadows.
 
Kim Kardashian’s Newest Business Venture: Private Equity (No froth in the market?)
Reality star and entrepreneur is joining with former Carlyle partner Jay Sammons to launch new firm  
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kim-kardashians-latest-business-venture-private-equity-11662543001
 
Unsealed FBI docs reveal a flurry of calls and stock trades by Sen. Burr (R-NC) in early 2020
Burr was ultimately not charged with breaking any laws, but the newly released records show FBI agents believed Burr had committed insider trading and securities fraud.  The most compelling new evidence is the flurry of calls and texts between Burr, his wife Brooke Burr, her brother Gerald Fauth and Fauth’s wife that took place on the same days that both the Fauths and the Burrs sold off hundreds of thousands of dollars of stock right before the market plunged…  (Burr is retiring.) https://t.co/yHmXodHvGF
 
Today – Equities had an oversold rally, abetted by pattern buying for the Apple Event on Wednesday.  Apple and Fangs led the rally.  Bonds also experienced a rebound rally.  Traders will try to extend both rallies today.  A rebound rally to alleviate a very oversold condition was a high probability.  It could last another session or two.
 
ESUs are -4.00 at 20:10 ET.  Today, December (Z) should become the front month for equity futures.
 
Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 235k, Continuing Claims 1.438m; July Consumer Credit $32.0B; Powell speaks at Cato Institute Monetary Conference 9:10 ET, Chicago Fed Pres Evans 12:00 ET on economy, Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 14:20 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4022; 100-day MA: 4038; 150-day MA: 4166; 200-day MA: 4282
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,168; 100-day MA: 32,310; 150-day MA: 33,986; 200-day MA: 33,619
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4800.68 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3877.02 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4078.14 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3923.90 triggers a sell signal
 
The FBI Secretly Pressured Americans to Waive Away Their Gun Rights
The FBI secretly provided forms to Americans between 2016 and 2019 to “voluntarily” relinquish their rights to own, buy or even use firearms, according to internal documents and communications…
    It is unclear what exact criteria the FBI used to identify signatories, but some forms include bureau notes detailing ongoing investigations. Many signatories allegedly made violent threats in online chat rooms, in person and on social media platforms, FBI notes show…https://t.co/W5BWaiMzmE
 
Judge’s order exposes FBI sloppiness, excessive evidence collection at Trump home – Court also acknowledges Joe Biden helped initiate criminal probe of his chief Republican rival, alarming many.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/judges-order-reveals-fbi-sloppiness-excessive-evidence-collection
 
@washingtonpost: FBI seized material at Mar-a-Lago on a foreign nation’s military defenses, including its nuclear capabilities, people familiar say
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/06/trump-nuclear-documents/
 
It is a crime (unless one has proper clearance) to possess secret info.  It is a crime to leak top-secret info. If the seized nuclear info is so sensitive, why did the FBI or DoJ leak it to the dolts at the WaPo?
 
@ProfMJCleveland: Supposedly top-secret docs resided unknown in Mar-a-Lago for 18 months & no one is aware of them or what they say. FBI has them 18 days & suddenly they & their contents splashed across front page of @wapo. Is real national security threat in West Palm Beach, FL or Quantico, VA?
 
@MZHemingway: As they have for six years now, federal law enforcement out with yet another illegal leak to their propaganda arm. Could also be seen as a cleanup attempt of their previous illegal leak that fizzled out about US nuclear codes or whatever.
 
@redsteeze: How can a source go to wash post saying “Here I am making public the sensitive classified material Trump had and wasn’t unauthorized to keep himself and oh yeah I also don’t have that clearance.” Unless they do. Which would be, interesting, after Garland’s statement.
 
@realJoelFischer: The FBI came to Mar a Lago in June, checked everything and confirm that everything is OK. All they asked was an extra lock on the basement door. Now they claim they found Highly classified material. PLANTED???  FBI: Classified docs not safe w Trump…FBI: Let’s leak it to WaPo.
 
Russian commanders in Kherson face mutiny as entire regiment refuses to fight due to lack of supplies and no pay https://t.co/tlfhLQVZX8
 
Surprise. “McConnell Remains Silent on Biden’s Speech Attacking MAGA Movement” https://t.co/PKSYHnCYGi
 
@AndrewDesiderio: McConnell staying quiet on Trump/Mar-a-Lago: “I’m not personally talking to the other Gang of 8 [members] about this,” he says. “I don’t really have any comment on this whole investigation that’s been dominating the news for the last month. We’re following it like all of you are”
 
Hillary Clinton blasted for ‘astonishingly false’ Twitter thread claiming she had ‘zero’ classified emails – A 2018 DOJ report found that Clinton had 193 classified emails on her private server
https://www.foxnews.com/media/hillary-clinton-blasted-astonishingly-false-twitter-thread-claiming-she-had-zero-classified-emails
 
Ex-liberal icon @ggreenwald: The regime of censorship being imposed on the internet – by a consortium of DC Dems, billionaire-funded “disinformation experts,” the US Security State, and liberal employees of media corporations – is dangerously intensifying in ways I believe are not adequately understood… The authoritarian mentality that led CIA, corporate media and Big Tech to lie about the Biden archive before the election is the same driving this new censorship craze. It’s the hallmark of all tyranny: “our enemies are so evil and dangerous, anything is justified to stop them.” (Long thread at link)
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1567293952054665218?s=02
 
@RNCResearch: ABSENTEE PRESIDENT: On average, Joe Biden spends 41% of each month on vacation. (68% of August, chart at link)  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1567269512596144128
 
@kylenabecker: NY Gov. Kathy Hochul has dropped the public transit mask mandate. Face coverings are no longer required to ride mass transit after nearly two-and-a-half-years. (Her poll #s have been falling.)
 
From 1933 until 1995, Dems control the US House except for two 2-year terms.  Since then, the GOP has controlled the House in 10 of the 14 Congresses.  This is a root reason that US politics has become toxic.
https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/

 

Greg Hunter..interviewing

See you tomorrow

Harvey

One comment

  1. […] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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