SEPT 9//GOLD CLOSED UP $7.85 TO $1717.45//SILVER CLOSED UP $.31 TO $18.50//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $2.75 TO $885.40//PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $42.20 TO $2185.40//COVID UPDATES// COIVD UPDATES WITH CHINA’S ZERO COVID MANDATE///VACCINE IMPACT//VACCINE INJURY//ALASDAIR MACLEOD A MUST READ (THE NEW MOSCOW PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET)//UPDATES ON THE ENERGY CRISIS IN EUROPE//CRISIS IN EUROPE WITH OUR DERIVATIVE PLAYERS IN ENERGY///SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

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GOLD;  $1717.45 UP $7.85 

SILVER: $18.81 UP 31 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1717.30

SILVER: $18.84

Bitcoin morning price:  $21,073 UP 1875

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $21,188 UP 1990

Platinum price closing UP $14.45 AT $882.65

Palladium price; closing UP $96.45  at $2143.20

END

DONATE

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,708.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/08/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/12/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


132 C SG AMERICAS 127
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 129
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 667
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8 16
661 C JP MORGAN 940
709 C BARCLAYS 621
737 C ADVANTAGE 21 69
800 C MAREX SPEC 5 22
880 C CITIGROUP 5
905 C ADM 24


TOTAL: 1,327 1,327
MONTH TO DATE: 3,791


JPMorgan stopped:   940/1327

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  

1327 NOTICES FOR 132,700 OZ //4.1275 TONNES

total notices so far: 3791 contracts for 379,100 oz (11.7916 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 169 NOTICES FILED FOR 845,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  6156 :  for 30,780,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $7.85 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////

WITHDRAWALS OF 2.90 TONNES AND 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.31

AT THE SLV// ://SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 467.557 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY  A GOOD SIZED 546  CONTRACTS TO 138,237.   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.16 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.16) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 1098 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,; WE HAD HUGE  SPECULATOR LIQUIDATION.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE/  SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 200,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//CONSIDERABLE SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: +919 ??

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 6 days, total 6972  contracts:  34.86 million oz  OR 6.972 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1162 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 34.86  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 34.86 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 546 WITH OUR  $0.16 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1481 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS A// HUGE SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 200,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2027 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 10.135 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 169  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  845,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 572 CONTRACTS  TO 464,841 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:–266  CONTRACTS.

.

THE SMALL SIZED  INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $6.10//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND /STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  STRONG JUMP OF 1100 OZ //NEW STANDING 12.373 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG FALL IN PRICE OF  $6.10 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1652  OI CONTRACTS 5.138 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1918  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 464,841

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1652 CONTRACTS  WITH 572 CONTRACTS  INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1080 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1652 CONTRACTS OR 5.138 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1080) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (572): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1652 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 1100 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

13,927 CONTRACTS OR 1,392,700 OZ OR 43.32 TONNES 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2321 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 43.32 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  43.32/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.23% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 43.32 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 546 CONTRACT OI TO 138,237 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1481 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1481  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1481 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 546  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1481 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2027  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10.135 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GOOD GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.16

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 26.47 PTS OR 0.82%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 507,63 OR 2.69%    /The Nikkei closed UP 149.47 OR 0.53%.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.76%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.9197//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.9296//    /Oil UP TO 85.13  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 90.80    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 572 CONTRACTS TO 465,107 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  FALL IN PRICE OF $6.10  IN GOLD PRICING  THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (1080 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1080 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :1080 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1080 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 1652  CONTRACTS IN THAT 838 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 572  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $6.10.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT   (12.3730),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  12.3730 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $6.10) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1652 CONTRACTS //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS COVERED SOME OF  THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 5.138 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (12.3730 TONNES)

WE HAD -266  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 235 CONTRACTS OR 23,500  OZ OR 0.7307 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 156,341///  poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  194,107/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 9

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz86,827.014 oz


Brinks 
HSBC
 

Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today1327   notice(s)
132700  OZ
4.1275 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)187 contracts 
18,700 oz
0.5816TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month3791 notices
379,100 OZ
11.7916 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks 80,292.980 oz

ii) Out of HSBC:  6534.034 oz

total:  86,827.014 oz   

total in tonnes: 2.7 tonnes

Adjustments: 1

HSBC:  9457.799 oz dealer to customer

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an  oi of 1514 contracts having LOST 259 contracts .

We had 270 notices filed on THURSDAY so we  gained A STRONG 11 contracts or an additional 1100 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.

October LOST 354 contracts DOWN to 42,022 

November GAINED 71 contracts to stand at 77

December LOST 1249 contracts DOWN to 378,494.

We had 1327 notice(s) filed today for 132,700 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1327 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 940 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3791) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT 1514 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 1327 x 100 oz per contract equals 397,800 OZ  OR 12.3730 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON  active month of SEPT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3791) x 100 oz+   (1514)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1327} x 100 oz} which equals 397,800 oz standing OR 12.3730 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  12.3730 TONNES  (A GREAT STANDING FOR A SEPT (   NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,397,641.955 oz   74.574 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  27,422,651.143 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,552,488.148  OZ (421.52 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,880,162.395 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 11,154,847. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 346.96 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 9

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory243,977.430 oz

BRINKS
JPMORGAN







 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory nil oz



 
No of oz served today (contracts)169 CONTRACT(S)
845,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)150 contracts 
(750,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)6156 contracts
 30,780,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  0  deposits into the customer account

total deposit:  nil   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 167.889 million oz/324.024million =51.81% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:2

i) Out of Brinks 5018.900 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  238,958.530 oz

total: 243,977.430    oz

 adjustments: 1/dealer to customer

CNT:  282,381.800 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 45.991 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 324.024 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 319 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 1 CONTRACT. WE HAD

39 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 40 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

200,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER GAINED 16 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 692 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 14

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 380 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 125,190

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 169 for  845,000 oz

Comex volumes:42,137// est. volume today//   poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 55,307 contracts ( poor)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  6156 x 5,000 oz = 30,780,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(319) and the number of notices served upon today 169  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,156 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (319)  – number of notices served upon today (169) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 31,530,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 45.991 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 31.530 MILLION OZ represents 68.55% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:49,341// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 51,749 contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.15 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

  AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES  

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 966.64 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

  AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//  

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4  WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 467.557 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

The Fed Is About To Start Losing Money; What Does That Mean?

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 08:50 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

What happens if the Federal Reserve loses money?

The Fed typically earns interest income from all of the bonds it holds on its balance sheet. It also collects fees for services that it provides. Most of any Fed operating profit is remitted to the US Treasury under federal law. That money becomes part of the federal government’s operating budget. In other words, the central bank serves as a revenue source for Uncle Sam.

In 2021, the central bank reported a net income of $107.8 billion and sent $107.4 billion to the US Treasury.

But it is possible for the Fed to lose money. In fact, it will likely do so in 2023. If so, it would be the first operating loss since 1915.

While the Federal Reserve earns significant income from its massive balance sheet, it also has expenses. It pays commercial banks interest on reserve balances held at the central bank, along with interest on reverse repurchase agreements. The Fed also sends dividend payments to Fed member banks, and it has its own operating expenses.

As the Fed raises interest rates, it increases its own interest expenses. The interest generated by the bonds held on the balance sheet remains unchanged. Meanwhile, quantitative tightening decreases its balance sheet and reduces its interest income. The recent rapid increase in rates puts the central bank in a position that will likely mean an operating loss in the next fiscal year.

That raises a question: how will this loss affect the federal budget?

The most obvious impact is the US government will see a reduction in revenue which will increase the federal budget deficit.

Given that the US government reaps the benefit of central bank profits, you might think it would also bear the burden of a loss.

Not exactly.

We live in a world where the Federal Reserve gets to make its own accounting rules. And according to its own accounting rules, any net loss magically turns into a “deferred asset.”

[I]n the unlikely scenario in which realized losses were sufficiently large enough to result in an overall net income loss for the Reserve Banks, the Federal Reserve would still meet its financial obligations to cover operating expenses. In that case, remittances to the Treasury would be suspended and a deferred asset would be recorded on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.”

Under this scheme, an operating loss will not reduce the Fed’s reported capital or surplus. The bank will simply create an “asset” on its balance sheet out of thin air equal to the loss and business will continue as usual. (This is kind of like money printing.) Once the Fed returns to profitability, it will retain profits in order to reduce the amount of this imaginary asset. In other words, the US government won’t get any money from the Fed until this “asset” is zeroed out. At that point, the Fed will resume sending money to the federal government.

In effect, this means the US government will see a reduction in revenue resulting in a budget deficit higher than it otherwise would have been.

The American Institute for Economic Research sums it up.

Simple accounting logic suggests that if the federal budget deficit is reduced when the Fed earns revenues in excess of expenses and remits these profits to the US Treasury, Fed losses should increase the reported federal budget deficit. This is especially true since Federal Reserve System losses now include the hundreds of millions of dollars of off-budget funding it is required to transfer to run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. If the current accounting rules remain unchallenged, the Congress could pass new legislation requiring the Federal Reserve to fund any number of activities off-budget without any impact on the reported federal budget deficit.”

This isn’t good news for a government already buried in debt and running massive budget deficits month after month. It means the US government will have to borrow even more money that the Fed will ultimately have to monetize.

This is yet another reason the Fed will find it very difficult to reduce inflation. Raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet to tame the inflation dragon means more pressure on the central bank to prop up the borrow and spend economy. This necessitates lower interest rates and quantitative easing.

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

GOLD/SILVER

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Your weekend reading material and a must read

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: An Asian Bretton Woods may be on the way

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-09-08 12:08Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, September 8, 2022

The financial war between Russia with China’s tacit backing on one side, and America and her NATO allies on the other has escalated rapidly. It appears that President Putin was thinking several steps ahead when he launched Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

We have seen sanctions fail. We have seen Russia achieve record export surpluses. We have seen the rouble become the strongest currency on the foreign exchanges. 

We are seeing the West enter a new round of European monetary inflation to pay everyone’s energy bills. The euro, yen, and sterling are already collapsing — the dollar will be next. From Putin’s point of view, so far, so good.

Russia has progressed her power over Asian nations, including populous India and Iran. She has persuaded Middle Eastern oil and gas producers that their future lies with Asian markets, not Europe. She is subsidising Asia’s industrial revolution with discounted energy. Thanks to the West’s sanctions, Russia is on its way to confirming Halford Mackinder’s predictions made over a century ago that Russia is the true geopolitical centre of the world.

There is one piece in Putin’s jigsaw yet to be put in place: a new currency system to protect Russia and her allies from an approaching Western monetary crisis. This article argues that under cover of the West’s geopolitical ineptitude, Putin is now assembling a new gold-backed multi-currency system by combining plans for a new Asian trade currency with his new Moscow World Standard for gold. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/an-asian-bretton-woods?gmrefcode=gata

END

With the death of Queen Elizabeth II, what happens to Canadian bills and coins?

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-09-09 10:17 Section: Daily Dispatches

From The Canadian Press, Toronto
Thursday, September 8, 2022

OTTAWA — Canadians are used to seeing Queen Elizabeth II on their money, but that could change following the death of the longest-serving British monarch and Canadian head of state.

However, the Bank of Canada, which produces Canada’s paper bills, said changes likely won’t be seen immediately.

The current $20 bank note featuring the Queen, is intended to circulate for years to come, the central bank said, and there is no legislative requirement to change the design within a prescribed period when the monarch changes. New bank notes, including the portrait subject, are approved by the finance minister.

One observer says he doesn’t know if Canadians will ultimately see King Charles III, as he’s now known, on our bills.

“I don’t know if we will, since there is only the $20 that has the Queen on it, and Canadians may want to change this,” said University of Toronto business history professor Dimitry Anastakis.

But the government will likely keep the queen on the $20 bill for a while before any changes are made, he noted.

The Royal Canadian Mint, which manufactures and distributes Canada’s coins, said the government has exclusive jurisdiction over their design.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.cp24.com/news/with-the-death-of-queen-elizabeth-ii-what-happens-to-canadian-bills-and-coins-1.6060610

END

With ascension of King Charles III, the look of British currency will change

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-09-09 10:00Section: Daily Dispatches

By Anthony Grant
New York Sun
Friday, September 8, 2022

The face of King Charles III instead of that of Queen Elizabeth II will begin to be seen on new British coins and banknotes issued in the United Kingdom and Commonwealth countries beyond the British Isles. These include Canada, Australia, New Zealand, British territories in the Caribbean, Gibraltar, the Falkland Islands, and the English Channel islands of Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man.

Exactly when Britons will notice these changes is not immediately clear, and existing currency with a rendition of Queen Elizabeth will remain in circulation as legal tender, but the Bank of England will likely not wait long to begin effecting the change. There are 4 1/2 billion pound notes in circulation, adding up to about $93 billion. These will have to be replaced, a process likely to be carried out over several years. 

During the short reign of King Edward VIII, new coins with his likeness were struck but the monarch abdicated the throne before they could be put into circulation. 

New Royal Mail postage stamps will also bear the king’s image or profile, but according to British media reports the cypher of Queen Elizabeth, ER, that now adorns Royal Mail post boxes will remain. The Guardian reported that some post boxes still bear the cypher GR, that of  King George VI, who preceded Elizabeth II on the throne. 

The ER cypher also appears on police helmets. Those may start to be modified in consideration of the new monarch. The royal cypher EIIR that is emblazoned on flags that fly on official buildings and sometimes on vessels of the Royal Navy is likely to change. …

https://www.nysun.com/article/with-accession-of-king-charles-iii-look-of-british-currency-set-to-change

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

ANDREW MAGUIRE/KINESIS//EPISODE 90

-END-

.

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: COOPER

We now have a copper shortage

(Zaremba/OilPrice.com)

The Energy Transition Could Be Derailed By A Looming Copper Shortage

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 06:30 AM

By Haley Zaremba of OilPrice.com

“Think of copper as a common carrier, so to speak, of decarbonization. It is literally the wiring that connects the present to the future,” writes Nathaniel Bullard, BloombergNEF’s Chief Content Officer. While many of us imagine renewable energies to be just that – infinitely renewable, with no use of finite resources – the reality is that solar planes, wind turbines, energy transmission infrastructure, batteries for energy storage, and motors for your electric cars and electric bicycles all rely on metals that are not infinitely sourceable. Much lip service has been paid to the extraction and exploitation of lithium to power electric vehicle batteries, but one could argue that copper is even more central to – and therefore potentially threatened by – a large-scale green energy transition. 

The reverse is also true – a looming copper shortage threatens to completely derail the clean energy transition, and by extension, climate pledges across the world. According to a recent report from S&P Platts, if copper shortfalls follow projected trends, climate goals will be “short-circuited and remain out of reach.” 

Copper is particularly effective in a wide range of low-carbon alternatives because of its relatively high electrical conductivity and low reactivity. It’s not that traditional energy production and transmission and gas-powered vehicles don’t use copper in their manufacturing –  it’s just that renewables and electric vehicles require a whole lot more of it. “An EV requires 2.5 times as much copper as an internal combustion engine vehicle,” reports CNBC. “Meanwhile, solar and offshore wind need two times and five times, respectively, more copper per megawatt of installed capacity than power generated using natural gas or coal.”

Copper production is already struggling to keep up with booming demand, and S&P projects that current levels of demand will nearly double by the year 2035, climbing to a whopping 50 million metric tons. That figure will climb to more than 53 million metric tons by 2050, which amounts to “more than all the copper consumed in the world between 1900 and 2021.” BloombergNEF’s projections are a bit more conservative, but still striking, finding that copper demand will increase by over 50% by 2040. Worryingly, the same report projects that primary copper production can increase by just 16% in the same time period.

This damning differential does not necessarily mean, however, that the world will be “structurally short of copper” for the next 18 years. It is likely that the economics of the copper deficit will suppress demand due to prohibitively high prices, ultimately helping to balance out the supply deficit. “That would happen, however, at the expense of expansions of clean power and electrified transportation,” reports Bloomberg. 

What the world needs – today’s world as well as the future, increasingly climate-threatened one – is a bigger emphasis and greater expenditures on copper discovery and exploration. Considering copper’s central role in the essential public project of climate change mitigation and adaptation, the public sector should be as active as the private sector in facilitating more, cheaper, and lasting primary copper production. This should be paired with robust copper recycling and recovery programs. 

Secondary copper production – essentially, recycling copper – is already a strong and well developed economic sector, completely filling the “4.6 million-ton-per-year gap between primary production and demand” with industrial copper scrap. But there is a huge opportunity – and indeed, imperative – to improve copper scrap collection from consumers. Currently, the copper collection rate from consumer and electronic goods stands at just 53%. As copper becomes increasingly scarce and increasingly expensive, the economics of better copper recovery will likely encourage far greater recovery in this respect, making copper not only better suited to support renewable, but more renewable itself.

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.9197

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9290

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 507,63 PTS OR  2.69%

2. Nikkei closed UP 149.47 OR  0.53%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  108.92/Euro RISES TO 1.0051

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.244/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 143.38/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.707%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.99% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.85%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.22//

3j Gold at $1720.25 silver at: 18.68  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 42/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.32//

3m oil into the 85 dollar handle for WTI and  90 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 142.38DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 9605– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9652well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.264  DOWN 3  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.440 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,24

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures, Euro, Oil All Jump As Dollar Tumbles

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 07:56 AM

US equity futures, European stocks, and pretty much all risk assets rose on Friday morning as the dollar finally stumbled, dropping by the most in a month to the lowest level in Septemember, after hitting an all time high just two days earlier.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained more than 0.8% at 730am ET. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index jumped as miners rallied on optimism over Chinese demand, while banks surged following the European Central Bank’s record rate hike. That’s even as BofA said an “appalling” mood fueled a $11 billion US stock exodus in the week to Sept. 7. The yen headed for its best day in a month as Japanese officials and BOJ governor Kuroda gave the strongest hint yet at possible direct market intervention as a response to weakness in the currency. Oil and cryptos jumped.

In premarket trading, DocuSign jumped 17% in premarket trading, after the e- signature company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year billings forecast. Digital Media Solutions soared 73% in premarket trading after receiving a non-binding “go private” proposal from Prism Data for $2.50/share in cash, representing ~95% premium to last close. Other notable premarket movers:

  • Zscaler (ZS US) was up 13% in premarket trading, after the security software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong.
  • Digital World Acquisition (DWAC US), the blank-check firm merging with Trump Media & Technology Group, rises 7.1% premarket, on course for a third day of gains.
  • The shares have had a volatile week, falling 11% on Tuesday, amid uncertainty over a vote to extend the deadline to complete the Trump deal.
  • Marathon Digital (MARA US) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) lead cryptocurrency-exposed stocks higher in premarket trading as Bitcoin rises the most in more than a month, breaching the closely watched $20,000 level. MARA +10%, RIOT +8%.
  • RH (RH US) was little-changed in postmarket trading. Analysts were torn on the luxury home furnishings retailer’s results, noting that while the company beat expectations, it lowered its full-year forecast.

Global stocks are on course for their first weekly advance in four, a small measure of respite from the bear-market omens circling markets due to monetary tightening, energy woes and China’s growth slowdown.

“The market has been extraordinarily focused on the actions of the ECB and Fed as they try to bring inflation under control,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management. “Eventually this will change and the investment horizon will lengthen considerably. For now though, the market has good reasons not to. Inflation saps consumer confidence and overtightening could send the European and US economies into a recession.”

Speaking at a conference, Powell said “we need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing” and added that “my colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and will keep at it.”

In contrast with the buoyant mood in equity markets Friday, Bank of America Corp. strategists flagged that investors are rushing out of US stocks as the likelihood of an economic downturn increases amid a myriad of risks. US stock funds posted outflows of $10.9 billion in the week to Sept. 7, according to EPFR Global data cited by the bank, with the biggest exodus in 11 weeks led by technology stocks.

In Europe, nat gas prices eased as the region’s energy ministers gathered for a summit to draw up plans to fix an unprecedented crisis that threatens to undermine the broader economy. Expect the news to be a major letdown unless somehow Brussels figured out how to print commodities. The euro touched the highest level in three weeks after the ECB raised rates 75 basis points Thursday. Bets the Federal Reserve will hike by the same margin when it meets later this month increased after chair Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed is determined to curb price pressures.

Elsewhere in Europe, stocks rallied as all sectors trade in the green. Euro Stoxx 50 climbs 1.9%. Miners, banks and autos are the strongest-performing sectors. European miners soared, significantly outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600, as iron-ore and base-metals prices rose on improving sentiment surrounding the Chinese market. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Deutsche Telekom shares gain as much as 3.1% after its unit T-Mobile US embarks on a buyback program of as much as $14b of shares, which Goldman Sachs sees as a positive catalyst for the telecom group
  • Zealand Pharma shares rise as much as 8.7% after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with overweight rating on near-term catalysts and the biotech’s rich pipeline
  • Synlab shares rise as much as 7% after Berenberg initiated coverage at buy, saying the shares should benefit as investors start to focus on the potential for the diagnostics firm’s core business
  • Rubis climbs as much as 8.9%, the most intraday since March, after the French oil and gas distributor reported a jumped in 1H profit helped by growth in its Caribbean operations
  • TI Fluid Systems shares rise as much as 7.6% after Jefferies upgraded them to buy, saying concerns on the auto parts maker’s outlook are now sufficiently priced in
  • Gear4Music shares plummet as much as 23% after the online retailer said summer trading was hit by the cost-of-living crisis and unusually hot weather. Peel Hunt sees a challenging winter ahead
  • Computacenter shares fall as much as 12%, with analysts saying the IT services firm missed profit estimates in 1H amid continued supply constraints and tough comparisons
  • Immobel shares drop as much as 5.1% after KBC downgraded the real estate developer to accumulate from buy and reduced the PT to a Street-low
  • Melrose shares drop as much as 6.1% in a second day of declines after the company said it will spin off two units. Analysts said the change in strategy raises questions.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced, poised to wipe out a weekly loss, as China’s consumer inflation came in lower than expected and the dollar rally showed signs of easing. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.7%, with a materials sub-gauge set for its best day since March –climbing almost 3% — amid a rally in metals due to supply concerns. Stock gauges in Hong Kong led gains in the region as developer stocks climbed on speculation of more easing of home-purchase restrictions. Mainland Chinese shares had their best day in almost a month as August data showed an unexpected moderation in prices, giving the country’s central bank room to stay accommodative. Markets in South Korea and Taiwan were closed for holidays. A dollar gauge edged lower, helping to lift sentiment, as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that hardened expectations of another jumbo rate hike appeared to have been largely priced in. 

Asian equities fell to a May 2020 low earlier this week as the dollar’s strength put pressure on capital flows amid rising inflation. Meanwhile, China’s continued lockdowns have weighed on supply chains and investor sentiment, and the country is stepping up defenses ahead of a key Communist Party meeting with further restrictions on internal travel. “Growth, inflation and yields have been driving the markets since the beginning of the year and there is still no consensus,” Sanford C. Bernstein strategists including Rupal Agarwal wrote in a note. A global slowdown or recession has historically worked in favor of defensive styles such as high quality, high yield and low volatility in Asia, they added.

Japanese equities advanced, driven by gains in telecoms and service providers, after a rally in US peers overnight and as the yen gained against the dollar. The Topix rose 0.4% to close 1,965.53, while the Nikkei advanced 0.5% to 28,214.75. Volumes were above the 30-day averages after special quotation settlement for futures and options. The yen strengthened as much as 1.1% against the greenback in afternoon trading. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 0.7%. Out of 2,169 shares in the index, 1,354 rose and 684 fell, while 131 were unchanged

Australian stocks advanced, boosted by banks and miners. The S&P/ASX 200 index increased 0.7% to close at 6,894.20, making a weekly gain of 1%, as banks and mining shares rose. Mineral Resources led lithium shares higher after responding to a media report that the company is considering a spinoff of its lithium mining and processing operations arm, as well as a possible US listing. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.7% to 11,757.77.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to its lowest level this month as the greenback weakened against all of its G10 peers, while the pound, euro, yen and yuan all rallied against the greenback. Risk-sensitive currencies advanced most, led by Norway’s krone which rose by as much as 2%. The euro rallied by as much as 1.1% to trade around $1.01 for the first time since mid-August. Italian bonds tumbled, snapping the BTP-bund spread wider as money markets cranked up ECB hike bets after Bloomberg reported policy makers are prepared to tighten another 75bps next month, according to people familiar with the debate. The yen rebounded as traders mulled comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on the currency’s decline amid a broad dollar selloff. The dollar-yen pair fell 1.3% to around the 142.20 level, after climbing for four straight sessions. Kuroda held a meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in a sign of the nation’s heightened alert levels. The Australian dollar surged the most in a month as the greenback weakens and a rally in equities boosts risk-sensitive currencies

In rates, US Treasuries trimmed their retreat, with the policy-sensitive two-year yield still near the highest since 2007. Treasury futures push higher over early US session as S&P 500 futures advance, taking yields richer by up to 7bp across intermediates which lead the rally. The Advance followed wider bull-flattening move seen across UK curve as gilts pare a portion of Thursday’s losses.  10-year TSY yields were around 3.26%, richer by 6bp on the day although lagging gilts where yields drop as much as 9bp out to 10s; in Treasuries, intermediate-led gains richen 2s7s30s fly by 5bp. Bunds 10-year yield is down 1.5bps to 1.73%. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund adding 2.2bps to 227.3bps.

Oil futures traded at session high, jumping 1.5% to below $85; gold jumped ~$18 to $1,727. Most base metals trade in the green; LME nickel rises 4.4%, outperforming peers. Bitcoin extended gains, rising 6.7% just shy of the $20,000-level, rising the most in more than a month.

Looking to To the day ahead now, and EU energy ministers will be meeting in Brussels to discuss emergency measures to deal with high energy prices. Otherwise, data releases include French industrial production for July and Canada’s employment report for August. Finally, central bank speakers includes ECB President Lagarde, and the Fed’s Evans, Waller and George.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 4,035.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.4% to 419.91
  • MXAP up 1.6% to 154.48
  • MXAPJ up 1.6% to 506.33
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 28,214.75
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,965.53
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.7% to 19,362.25
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,262.05
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 59,834.09
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,894.18
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,384.28
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.75%
  • Euro up 1.0% to $1.0100
  • Gold spot up 1.2% to $1,728.41
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 1.12% to 108.47

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The EU is throwing together a series of radical plans to tame runaway energy prices and keep the lights on across the continent, but governments across the region are going to need to find common ground and fast
  • The ECB will continue raising interest rates until it reaches its inflation goal, according to Governing Council Member Klaas Knot. Governing Council Member Bostjan Vasle said the ECB will continue the strong normalization of monetary policy with more interest-rate hikes, while Peter Kazimir said euro-zone inflation is “unacceptably high” and sees more hikes in the near future to get inflation under control. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the ECB must be “orderly and determined” with rate increases after hiking by a record 75 basis points
  • Japanese officials sound increasingly alarmed over the yen’s weakness, and while intervention is not imminent, the market takes notice. The pair’s volatility skew turns bearish the dollar this week at the front-end yet topside trades better bid further out; this suggests that traders see risk of a yen rebound, but unilateral intervention won’t have a lasting effect as long as monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the BOJ remains in place

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks followed suit to the gains on Wall St although the upside was capped after recent global central bank activity including a 75bps rate hike by the ECB and Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish reiterations. ASX 200 was led by the mining-related sectors although advances were limited by weakness in defensives. Nikkei 225 extended on gains above the 28k level but with upside capped amid currency-related jawboning. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were also lifted with property and tech stocks spearheading the outperformance in Hong Kong owing to supportive policy-related headlines, while the mainland was somewhat contained in comparison after softer-than-expected inflation data from China and ahead of the long weekend with markets shut on Monday for the Mid-Autumn Festival.

Top Asian News

  • US is considering an order to screen US investment in tech in China and elsewhere, according to WSJ.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said President Biden continues to consider tariff relief on Chinese imports and wants to make sure the decision is good for Americans, while she added that it is important to take a tough stance on China due to its economic practices and national security threat, according to Reuters.
  • US reportedly relaxed Huawei curbs to counter China’s push on tech standards with the Commerce Department issuing a new rule to permit sharing of certain ‘low-level’ technologies and software, according to SCMP.
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda said he met with PM Kishida to explain domestic and overseas economic developments and markets, but noted there was no specific request from PM Kishida on the economy or markets. Kuroda said hediscussed FX moves with Kishida and noted that rapid FX moves are undesirable and heighten uncertainty, as well as make it difficult for companies to do business, according to Reuters.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are to tap JPY 3.5tln in budget reserves to speedily deliver measures against the negative impact of price hikes, while he added that sharp FX moves are undesirable and won’t rule out any options on FX, according to Reuters.
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said he is concerned about abrupt FX moves and noted that speculation is a factor behind recent moves, while he added that the strong USD is affecting other currencies, not just the JPY, according to Reuters. Matsuno said watching FX carefully, ready to take necessary steps if current FX moves continue, without ruling out options; recent JPY moves show excessive volatility

European bourses trade firmer across the board following constructive leads from APAC and Wall Street, with the softer-than-expected Chinese inflation data overnight also lifting spirits. European sectors are in the green but portray a clear anti-defensive bias – Utilities, Healthcare, Food & Beverages, Media, and Personal Care reside at the bottom of the bunch. Stateside, US equity futures are also higher across the board, with the tech-laden NQ leading the charge

Top European News

  • ECB’s Kazimir said discussion on what levels of rate the ECB aims to reach is premature; priority is to continue fiercely with normalisation of monetary policy, via Reuters.
  • ECB’s Knot said ECB has sent a forceful signal with rate rise; sees big risks of second-round effects, via Bloomberg.
  • ECB’s Villeroy said half of the current inflation is not linked to energy or agricultural prices; says inflation should be brought back to around 2% by 2024; earlier we act the easier it is to achieve results, via Reuters. Villeroy added that neutral can be estimated in the Euro Area at below or close to 2% according to him, should not speculate on the size of the next rate move – “we did not create a jumbo habit”.
  • ECB is said to be ramping up scrutiny of banks’ readiness for a gas halt by Russia, according to Bloomberg sources.

FX

  • DXY suffers from a large fall amid risk appetite, ECB sources yesterday and Japanese verbal intervention, with the index back around 108.50 from a 109.54 peak.
  • The EUR is probing 1.0100 from a sub-0.9900 midweek trough and pulling away from decent option expiry interest below.
  • The AUD stands as the outperformer amid renewed risk appetite and the revival of base metals.

Fixed Income

  • UK Gilts have rebounded to extend well beyond prior session peaks to almost 106.00
  • Bunds are back around par within extended 143.82-142.46 extremes
  • US Treasuries are near the top of a 116-07+/115-22 range.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures have been climbing since the start of the APAC session as a function of the declining Dollar and overall risk appetite in the market.
  • Spot gold is firmer as the DXY losses further ground, with the yellow metal topping yesterday’s high as it eyes its 50 DMA at USD 1,744.12/oz.
  • Base metals are bolstered by the softer Chinese inflation metrics – which also lowers the chances of further state intervention.
  • Indian food secretary said rice production could drop due to droughts; output could drop by 7-8mln tonnes, via Reuters
  • Black Sea grain deal is being fulfilled badly, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, its extension will depend on implementation, via Ria.

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00: July Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 1.8%
  • 10:00: July Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
  • 12:00: 2Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior -$544b

Central Banks

  • 10:00: Fed’s Evans Discusses Careers in Economics
  • 12:00: Fed’s Waller Discusses Economic Outlook
  • 12:00: Fed’s George Discusses the Economic Outlook

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets struggled for direction yesterday as it dawned on investors that central banks still aren’t ready to slow down their rate hikes just yet. First, we had the ECB who hiked by 75bps for the first time in their history and signalled that further hikes were still to come. Then we had a Bloomberg report suggesting that ECB officials were prepared to move by the same amount again in October. And finally in the US, Fed Chair Powell delivered remarks that cemented expectations that the Fed are set to hike by 75bps for a third consecutive meeting this month. That combination of hawkish developments meant that sovereign bonds struggled on both sides of the Atlantic, with a fresh surge in real yields that left the 5yr real Treasury yield at a post-2019 high of 0.95%.

Looking at the ECB decision in more detail, the Governing Council decided to take their main rates up by 75bps as expected by the consensus, leaving the deposit rate at 0.75% and the main refinancing rate at 1.25%. A number of details also tilted in a hawkish direction, including their statement that they expected “to raise interest rates further to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.” We even got some detail from Lagarde on what they meant when they said there’d be “several” future hikes, which was that it meant “probably more than two, including this one, but it’s also probably also going to be less than five.” Furthermore, they upgraded their inflation forecasts yet again, now seeing 2023 inflation +5.5% (vs. +3.5% in June), and 2024 inflation at +2.3% (vs. +2.1% in June), so still above their +2.0% target even in a couple of years. They also significantly downgraded growth in 2023, now expecting +0.9% (vs. +2.1% in June), and said that they expected the economy “to stagnate later in the year and in the first quarter of 2023.”

Here at DB, our own European economists have now shifted their view for the next meting in October, and now expect another 75bps hike. They write that the guidance from President Lagarde that rates are “far away” from appropriate levels for getting inflation back to target underscores the ECB’s insensitivity to the growth headwinds and their focus on bringing inflation down. They maintain their 2.5% terminal rate forecast for the deposit rate, but the timing for that has moved forward to March 2023, with that 75bp hike in October being followed by a 50bp move in December, and then 25bp moves in February and March. You can see their full reaction note here.

European sovereign bonds sold off following the decision, with yields on 10yr bunds (+13.8bps), OATs (+11.0bps) and BTPs (+10.8bps) all moving higher. That also followed an announcement that they were temporarily removing the 0% interest rate ceiling on the remuneration of government deposits, which they said would “prevent an abrupt outflow of deposits into the market”. Instead, the ceiling will be at the lower of either the Eurosystem’s deposit facility rate or the euro short-term rate, with the measure intended to remain in effect until 30 April 2023. Later, we then heard in a Bloomberg article that ECB officials were prepared to move by 75bps again in October, with the report further saying that Chief Economist Lane’s presentation “struck a much more hawkish tone than his latest speech”. All in all, investors took away a very hawkish message, with the rate priced in by the December meeting rising +21.2bps on the day to its highest level to date.

Today, attention will remain on Europe since we have the much-awaited meeting of EU energy ministers in Brussels. They’ll be discussing emergency measures to help with high energy prices, and we’re expecting a press conference at 14:30 Brussels time. We’ll have to see what happens, but the tone among policymakers has remained incredibly downbeat, with Belgian Prime Minister De Croo warning that “A few weeks like this and the European economy will just go into a full stop”. In the meantime, natural gas futures recovered +3.40% yesterday, which still leaves them at €221 per megawatt-hour, or more than quadruple their levels from a year ago. For those after more info on the situation, our research colleagues in Frankfurt published their latest gas supply monitor yesterday as well, where they update their scenarios for how fast German gas storages will be depleted, assuming zero gas flows from Russia to Germany. Their model shows that even with a 20% year-on-year reduction in total gas consumption, that would largely deplete the country’s gas storage by the end of the heating season. They also preview what to expect from today’s meeting (link here).

Otherwise yesterday, there were mounting expectations that the Fed would hike by 75bps again at their meeting on September 21, which would mark the third consecutive hike of that magnitude. That followed a further set of remarks from Fed Chair Powell, in which he stuck to his resolute tone on beating inflation, saying that “We need to act now, forthrightly, strong as we have been doing”. The FOMC are entering their blackout period tomorrow, so today is the last day ahead of the meeting we’ll hear from any of them, but Chicago Fed President Evans also said that they “could very well do 75 in September”. Fed funds futures responded accordingly, with +71.6bps worth of hikes now priced in for that meeting, and the rate priced in for December went up +4.3bps to 3.82%, which is the most hawkish market pricing to date.

The effects of the Fed’s hikes are being increasingly seen in the real economy, and yesterday we got data from Freddie Mac showing that the average 30-year mortgage rate hit a post-2008 high of 5.89%. However, there was a further round of decent data on the labour market, as the weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending September 3 fell to 2322k (vs. 235k expected). That’s their 4th consecutive weekly fall and brings them to their lowest level since May, so it’s becoming harder and harder to dismiss the better-than-expected data as just a blip. There have been some other tailwinds recently too, and daily data from the American Automobile Association is now showing that gasoline prices are down by just over a quarter from their peak in June, having fallen from $5.02/gallon back then to $3.75/gallon on Wednesday.

When it came to Treasuries, the hawkish rhetoric and more robust economic data helped yields rise further yesterday, with the 10yr yield up +5.4bps to 3.32%, although there’s been a partial pullback in Asia this morning, with yields down -2.3bps. The rise was driven by higher real yields, with those at shorter maturities hitting their highest levels since before the Covid-19 pandemic. For equities however, the day was marked by significant swings between gains and losses, before the S&P 500 eventually ended the day up +0.66%. It was a similar story in Europe too, where the STOXX 600 eventually ended the day up +0.50%. Looking forward, US stock futures are pointing to further gains today and contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.38%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.59%) have both risen.

Here in the UK, Prime Minister Truss outlined the government’s plan on consumer energy bills, with a new Energy Price Guarantee that will mean a typical UK household only pays up to an average of £2,500 a year on energy. This applies to all households, and once you take into account the existing £400 discount this winter, it means that average costs over the coming year will be roughly around where the current energy price cap stands, rather than going up to a new cap of £3,549 as had been previously planned. Against that backdrop, we also saw 10yr gilt yields (+11.3bps) rise to a new post-2011 high yesterday, although yesterday’s move was broadly in line with what we saw elsewhere in Europe following the ECB decision.

Overnight in Asia, equities are advancing this morning as they follow up the rise on Wall Street yesterday. The Hang Seng (+2.24%) is leading gains followed by the CSI (+1.26%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.84%) and the Nikkei (+0.55%). Elsewhere, markets in South Korea are closed for a holiday. Risk appetite was supported by Chinese inflation data that showed a slowing in the rate of both consumer and producer price growth, which offers the authorities more space to support the economy without sparking further inflation. Consumer prices were up by +2.5% in August (vs. +2.8% expected), while producer prices were up +2.3% (vs. +3.2% expected), and both readings were down on the previous month. Finally, the Japanese Yen has strengthened for the first time this week after BoJ Governor Kuroda commented that “The rapid weakening of the yen is undesirable”, gaining +0.94% against the US Dollar.

To the day ahead now, and EU energy ministers will be meeting in Brussels to discuss emergency measures to deal with high energy prices. Otherwise, data releases include French industrial production for July and Canada’s employment report for August. Finally, central bank speakers includes ECB President Lagarde, and the Fed’s Evans, Waller and George.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Risk appetite is firmer across the board following constructive leads from APAC and Wall Street – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 06:33 AM

  • European bourses trade firmer across the board following constructive leads from APAC and Wall Street
  • DXY suffers from a large fall amid risk appetite, ECB sources yesterday, and Japanese verbal intervention, with the index back around 108.50
  • UK Gilts have rebounded to extend well beyond prior session peaks; 10yr UST resides near the top of its range
  • Crude futures have been climbing since the start of the APAC session as a function of the  declining Dollar and overall risk appetite in the market
  • Looking ahead, highlights include the Canadian jobs report, EU energy meeting, Speeches from Fed’s Evans, Waller & George

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk

Try a 14-day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

9th September 2022

  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
  • Click here for the Newsquawk primer on the EU energy meeting.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

OTHER

  • North Korean assembly adopted a law officially declaring itself a responsible nuclear weapons state and which allows it to automatically launch a nuclear strike against an enemy target if it is attacked, according to KCNA.
  • Russia Foreign Ministry says it is closely monitoring any military activity on the Korean peninsula, RIA reported.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses trade firmer across the board following constructive leads from APAC and Wall Street, with the softer-than-expected Chinese inflation data overnight also lifting spirits.
  • European sectors are in the green but portray a clear anti-defensive bias – Utilities, Healthcare, Food & Beverages, Media, and Personal Care reside at the bottom of the bunch.
  • Stateside, US equity futures are also higher across the board, with the tech-laden NQ leading the charge.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY suffers from a large fall amid risk appetite, ECB sources yesterday and Japanese verbal intervention, with the index back around 108.50 from a 109.54 peak.
  • The EUR is probing 1.0100 from a sub-0.9900 midweek trough and pulling away from decent option expiry interest below.
  • The AUD stands as the outperformer amid renewed risk appetite and the revival of base metals.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 0.9850 (877M), 0.9900 (1.10BN), 0.9950 (1.23BN), 1.0000 (1.26BN)
  • Click here for more detail

FIXED INCOME

  • UK Gilts have rebounded to extend well beyond prior session peaks to almost 106.00
  • Bunds are back around par within extended 143.82-142.46 extremes
  • US Treasuries are near the top of a 116-07+/115-22 range.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures have been climbing since the start of the APAC session as a function of the declining Dollar and overall risk appetite in the market.
  • Spot gold is firmer as the DXY losses further ground, with the yellow metal topping yesterday’s high as it eyes its 50 DMA at USD 1,744.12/oz.
  • Base metals are bolstered by the softer Chinese inflation metrics – which also lowers the chances of further state intervention.
  • Indian food secretary said rice production could drop due to droughts; output could drop by 7-8mln tonnes, via Reuters
  • Black Sea grain deal is being fulfilled badly, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, its extension will depend on implementation, via Ria.
  • Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin surged to levels close to USD 21,000, but has since waned off best levels.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • ECB’s Kazimir said discussion on what levels of rate the ECB aims to reach is premature; priority is to continue fiercely with normalisation of monetary policy, via Reuters.
  • ECB’s Knot said ECB has sent a forceful signal with rate rise; sees big risks of second-round effects, via Bloomberg.
  • ECB’s Villeroy said half of the current inflation is not linked to energy or agricultural prices; says inflation should be brought back to around 2% by 2024; earlier we act the easier it is to achieve results, via Reuters. Villeroy added that neutral can be estimated in the Euro Area at below or close to 2% according to him, should not speculate on the size of the next rate move – “we did not create a jumbo habit”.
  • ECB is said to be ramping up scrutiny of banks’ readiness for a gas halt by Russia, according to Bloomberg sources.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks followed suit to the gains on Wall St although the upside was capped after recent global central bank activity including a 75bps rate hike by the ECB and Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish reiterations.
  • ASX 200 was led by the mining-related sectors although advances were limited by weakness in defensives.
  • Nikkei 225 extended on gains above the 28k level but with upside capped amid currency-related jawboning.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were also lifted with property and tech stocks spearheading the outperformance in Hong Kong owing to supportive policy-related headlines, while the mainland was somewhat contained in comparison after softer-than-expected inflation data from China and ahead of the long weekend with markets shut on Monday for the Mid-Autumn Festival.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • US is considering an order to screen US investment in tech in China and elsewhere, according to WSJ.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said President Biden continues to consider tariff relief on Chinese imports and wants to make sure the decision is good for Americans, while she added that it is important to take a tough stance on China due to its economic practices and national security threat, according to Reuters.
  • US reportedly relaxed Huawei curbs to counter China’s push on tech standards with the Commerce Department issuing a new rule to permit sharing of certain ‘low-level’ technologies and software, according to SCMP.
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda said he met with PM Kishida to explain domestic and overseas economic developments and markets, but noted there was no specific request from PM Kishida on the economy or markets. Kuroda said hediscussed FX moves with Kishida and noted that rapid FX moves are undesirable and heighten uncertainty, as well as make it difficult for companies to do business, according to Reuters.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are to tap JPY 3.5tln in budget reserves to speedily deliver measures against the negative impact of price hikes, while he added that sharp FX moves are undesirable and won’t rule out any options on FX, according to Reuters.
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said he is concerned about abrupt FX moves and noted that speculation is a factor behind recent moves, while he added that the strong USD is affecting other currencies, not just the JPY, according to Reuters. Matsuno said watching FX carefully, ready to take necessary steps if current FX moves continue, without ruling out options; recent JPY moves show excessive volatility

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese PPI YY (Aug) 2.3% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 4.2%)
  • Chinese CPI YY (Aug) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.7%)
  • Chinese CPI MM (Aug) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.5%)

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 26.47 PTS OR 0.82%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 507,63 OR 2.69%    /The Nikkei closed UP 149.47 OR 0.53%.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.76%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.9197//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.9296//    /Oil UP TO 85.13  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 90.80    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA/HONG KONG/EVERGRANDE

Lenders seize the huge Evergrande’s Hong Kong headquarters

(zerohedge)

Lender Seizes Evergrande’s Hong Kong Headquarters

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 06:40 PM

It may not have been China’s Lehman, but just like Lehman, Evergrande’s sprawling headquarters now belongs to someone else: according to the FT, Evergrande’s Hong Kong headquarters building has been seized by a lender after the struggling Chinese property developer defaulted on a loan and twice failed to sell the building.

The lender, whose identity has not yet been confirmed, informed Evergrande earlier this week that it had appointed a receiver to take charge of the property, which is valued at $1.2 billion. Citing four sources, the FT notes that the lender had security over the China Evergrande Centre – a 26-story tower near the city center of Hong Kong island – which allowed it to take charge of the asset.

Evergrande had reportedly pledged the building in exchange for loans from a consortium of lenders led by China CITIC Bank International, the HK-based subsidiary of the Chinese state-owned bank. The unnamed lender had appointed receivers from restructuring firm Alvarez & Marsal.

Last September, as an Evergrande default loomed, CITIC Bank told its investors that its loans to the developer were pledged against valuable security, although it did not provide further details. We now have a hint what said security may have been.

Evergrande was infamously the most prominent developer to default in 2021 as a liquidity crisis gripped the Chinese property sector. It told creditors in January that it would unveil a preliminary plan by the end of July to restructure its $300 billion of liabilities, which include $20 billion of offshore bonds, but it missed that deadline and instead said it had only made “positive progress” toward a proposal.

The property developer had twice attempted to sell the tower. Last October, Chinese state-owned Yuexiu Property pulled out of a reported $1.7 billion deal to buy the building over concerns about the developer’s financial situation. It put the headquarters back on the market in July, attracting a number of bids including from Li Ka-shing’s Hong Kong property developer CK Asset Holdings. However the sale again fell through because the bids were too low, reflecting Evergrande’s desperate need to raise cash.

Evergrande has been divesting assets including property and its stakes in companies in a bid to repay some of its creditors. Its chair has also put his personal assets up for sale, including private jets. This week, Evergrande said it would sell its remaining stakes in China’s Shengjing Bank for $1.1 billion.

The developer, which is listed in Hong Kong but whose shares have been suspended from trading since March, has not yet informed the market that a receiver has been appointed over one of its large Hong Kong assets. Earlier this year, Oaktree Capital, a $158 billion American asset manager, seized two of Evergrande’s prized assets after it defaulted on loans that totaled around $1 billion. The assets were a large development site in Hong Kong, where Evergrande’s chair Hui Ka Yan had intended to build a Versailles-like mansion and a sprawling residential and tourism resort near Shanghai called “Venice.”

END

CHINA/COVID

Very stupid move: because China vaccinated, the country will never get rid of the virus.  However many illnesses will come forth

(Gu/Bloomberg)

Xi Doubles Down On COVID-Zero Before Party Congress

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 10:20 PM

By Jacob Gu, Bloomberg Markets Live analyst and reporter

China’s tightening of Covid-fighting measures has diminished hope that the ruling Communist Party may start relaxing the rigorous restrictions after it concludes its 20th Party Congress in October. Doubling down on the Covid Zero policy may not only cause more pain in the already struggling economy, but also undermine confidence among investors and the general public, something former Premier Wen Jiabao has said is “more important than gold and money.”

The nation’s National Health Commission (NHC) on Thursday announced a raft of new measures in its fight against the Covid-19 virus, including asking people to minimize travel during the Mid-Autumn Festival next week and National Day holidays in October. People traveling via airplanes and railways will need to present negative PCR test results within 48 hours prior to boarding. They must show proof of a negative test within 72 hours when checking into hotels and visiting tourist attractions.

In a reversal of its guidance in June, the NHC now requires all regions to conduct regular PCR testing, regardless of whether they have outbreaks or not. Previously, the authorities refuted such tests as unnecessary.

The new measures, which start on Sept. 10 and end on Oct 31, seem to be designed for minimizing outbreak risks before the Party Congress scheduled for mid-October.

To some China watchers, such as Nomura’s economist Ting Lu, the Covid Zero policy is unlikely to change until at least 2023 because Beijing may either extend or reintroduce these measures after October. It’s partly due to the calendar: the virus is more infectious during the winter; millions of people will travel during the Chinese New Year holidays in January; and the once-in-a-decade central government reshuffling is due at the National People’s Congress’s annual session in March.

Market sentiment is already poor. The CSI 300 Index tracking companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen ended a two-day advance. Chinese shares traded in the US tumbled.

Even before the new rules were announced, economists were already busy lowering forecasts for China’s economy. Nomura this week cut its forecast for 2022 growth to 2.7% from 2.8%. On Thursday, Barclays lowered its growth estimate to 2.6% from 3.1%, citing challenges including Covid lockdowns. Of 78 market participants polled by Bloomberg, 25 now see China’s growth below 3% this year.

The Covid policy is increasingly unpopular among some Chinese and it’s politically sensitive. On Wednesday, Huatai Financial Holdings (HK) published a report saying an analysis of pandemic data in Asia suggests that the death rate from Covid variant BA.5 is lower than that of influenza. The report, co-authored by chief economist Eva Yi and analyst Xun Zhu, went viral on social media before Huatai shelved the analysis, even though it didn’t comment on Beijing’s policy.

Nobody is expecting the strict rules to be removed before the Party Congress. But political and policy finesse will be in urgent need afterward to save the economy and restore confidence following the prolonged quixotic fight against Covid, before it’s too late.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

GERMANY

Amazing! how the leaders never thought about this; without energy, no economy can run!! Many German companies warn of disaster as electricity and gas taps are turned off

(Cody/Remix News)

“Without Energy, No Economy Can Run”: German Companies Warn Of Disaster As Electricity, Gas Taps Are Turned Off

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 02:00 AM

By John Cody of Remix News,

German companies are increasingly unable to access energy supplies on the market, and as energy dries up, the German economy will simply stop running, according to the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK).

“More and more companies are telling us that they no longer have a supply contract for electricity or gas at all. The tap is turned off in the truest sense of the word,” DIHK President Peter Adrian told the RND newsroom.

“But without energy, no economy can run.”

In addition, energy prices have reached a level that threatens the existence of many companies. Just this week, German toilet paper company Hakle filed for bankruptcy, with the owners citing unsustainable energy and material costs as the primary factor. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that Europe’s steel industry, which requires massive amounts of cheap natural gas to run, is slashing production and facing severe financial headwinds. Other sectors, such as chemical production, agriculture, and automating are all facing unprecedented hurdles as the energy crisis continues to grip Europe.

Cries for help from the once booming German economy are now coming from business leaders, associations, and consumers, with the Federation of German Industries (BDI) also warning of a wave of bankruptcies due to energy cost inflation. A new analysis by the BDI states that this is a major challenge for 58 percent of companies, and 34 percent believe the current crisis represents a matter of survival. Germany is no exception either, with warning from the United Kingdom showing that six in ten manufacturing companies face the risk of closure due to the energy crisis.

Some German companies, attempting to survive in an increasingly challenging environment, are claiming they are looking to move production overseas.

Almost every tenth company has already reduced or even interrupted production, while every fourth company is considering or is already relocating company shares or parts of production and jobs abroad where costs are often cheaper than Germany.

The situation is also coming to a head in the skilled trades.

“In the trades, a wave of insolvencies is rolling towards us because of the energy crisis,” said president of the Central Association of German Crafts, Hans Peter Wollseifer, to the Rheinische Post.

“Every day, we receive emergency calls from companies that are about to stop production because they can no longer pay the enormously increased energy bills.”

Even though the coronavirus pandemic represented a severe threat to many German businesses, the downturn due to the energy crisis is expected to be much worse. Governments and central bankers are also constrained with their policy choices. Unlike the coronavirus crisis, they can no longer throw hundreds of billions in stimulus at the problem, as it would likely greatly exacerbate already high inflation.

However, despite alarm bells, there is some sign that up until now, the German economy has held up despite various economic threats. The number of insolvencies was still stable in June, according to the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

“Despite the energy crisis, supply chain problems, and the gradual phase-out of Corona aid, the insolvency situation is still pleasingly robust,” said IWH expert Steffen Müller. In June, 709 partnerships and corporations filed for bankruptcy, which was slightly below previous months and actually almost exactly the same number as in June 2021. Müller said he did not expect increased numbers for July or August either.

However, severe headwinds remain on the horizon, including rising interest rates, energy prices, and an increase in the minimum wage in October to €12.

END

GERMANY

As the energy crisis worsens, the powers to be are planning a wide rescue.  It will not work

(zerohedge)

“Wide Rescue Umbrella”: Germany Plans To Support Companies As Energy Crisis Worsens

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Natural gas and electricity prices have become so expensive in Germany that the economic engine of Europe is shutting down and at risk of a ‘Lehman-style’ collapse. To mitigate energy cost burdens, the German government unveiled a new proposal to increase a pandemic-era rescue fund to save small and medium size companies that could face a wave of bankruptcies amid the worsening energy crisis. 

On Thursday, Bloomberg quoted German Economy Minister Robert Habeck as saying new financial aid for businesses to cover energy costs could soon be made possible. 

We will open a wide rescue umbrella,” Habeck told lawmakers in Berlin. “We will open it widely so that small and medium enterprises can come under it,” he said. 

Habeck’s comments come after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition agreed on a 65 billion euro program to support millions of struggling households with soaring power bills. 

A participant at a parliamentary committee late Wednesday said Habeck was willing to use an existing pandemic-era aid program to support companies — about 20% of the 5 billion euros has already been spent. 

Habeck said at the closed-door meeting that drawing funds from the Covid program could spark constitutional debt limit issues, according to the participant, who asked not to be named. 

In his speech to lawmakers, Habeck said the energy crisis could persist well beyond this winter, adding financial support for businesses will be temporary as Germany and the EU work to reform energy supply chains away from Russia. 

“We are looking at the electricity market design,” said Habeck. “If this doesn’t work immediately and solidly, then we also consider the option of a windfall levy and give this back to the citizens.”

Besides Germany, UK Prime Minister Liz Truss also laid out a plan to support households and businesses amid energy hyperinflation as Russia’s energy giant shuttered the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe last week. 

European politicians are maneuvering ahead of a pivot meeting Friday, where they will discuss plans to reduce energy costs, consumption, possible price caps on energy products, and even suspension of power derivatives trading — as the bloc races against time to thwart what could be a ‘Minsky’ moment as we reported European energy trading risks grinding to a halt unless governments extend liquidity to cover margin calls of at least $1.5 trillion

ECB/ENERGY COMPANIES

MAJOR STORY!

European energy companies engage in derivative trading to support their supply of gas/oil.  When supplies are plentiful everything is hunky dory.  However when supplies 

are cut off, then troubles ensue.  It seems that the energy companies have a huge derivative problem of 1.5 trillion dollars and that will set off sky high margin calls.

(zerohedge)

ECB Scrutinizes Banks’ Readiness For Possible Tsunami Of Energy Company Defaults

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 09:10 AM

As we detailed in Trillions In “Liquidity Support Is Going To Be Needed” As Swiss, Finns Join Europe’s Bailout Brigade and Sweden, Austria Start Bailing Out Energy Companies Triggering Europe’s “Minsky Moment,” it appears financial armageddon nears for Europe as the European Central Bank calls for a meeting with top bank executives to discuss how to prepare for a potential ‘Lehman-style’ collapse of energy companies amid worsening energy crisis. 

Conversations between the ECB and lenders are taking place in order to understand the impact of Russian energy giant Gazprom’s sudden decision to “completely halt” all Nord Stream 1 transit altogether due to an “oil leak,” according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the talks. The ECB’s letter questions lenders’ readiness following a NatGas stoppage that could trigger a wave of energy company bankruptcies. The central bank wants to see how resilient the lenders will be during a period of duress. Lenders will submit their findings to the central bank in mid-September. At the end of the month, bankers will meet with the ECB for follow-up conversations. These interactions between the ECB and lenders are behind closed doors (for now).

The news of NS1 shuttering NatGas flows to Europe has sparked a series of European governments bailing out energy companies as they can no longer afford high NatGas prices and liquidity dries up. 

Sweden followed in Austria and Germany’s footsteps, who announced emergency liquidity support to electricity producers after the government said it feared Russia’s decision to halt NatGas deliveries to Europe could put its financial system under severe strain. Finland and Switzerland are other countries that have joined the bailout brigade this week. 

The numbers are adding up quickly as European nations are suddenly succumbing to what Zoltan Pozsar dubbed a “supply-chain Minsky moment” for European energy companies. 

It gets better because the crisis, as explained by Norwegian energy giant Equinor ASA, warned that unless there’s government intervention to extend liquidity to energy companies, there could be a, get ready for this, margin call upwards of $1.5 trillion.

The physical energy market appears to be functioning, though the derivatives market could be on the cusp of turmoil, and perhaps why the ECB is asking banks to review their readiness for when shit hits the fan: 

Regulators are pushing banks to ensure they have sufficient reserves for loan defaults by identifying their most-exposed clients as well as the effect on companies that aren’t directly affected by the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Banks will also need to show that they can conduct stress tests and that they’re updating their economic assumptions, said the people.

Other areas of concern are thinly-traded energy derivatives and concentrated exposures to energy traders, although only a smaller number of banks are active in those areas, the people said.

The letter to banks also requested institutions to detail how their analysis has been factored into their overall strategy, and what the first and second-round effects would be from a gas stoppage. –Bloomberg 

Earlier this week, Mark Branson, who leads German regulator BaFin, told the German newspaper Handelsblatt that the “system is still robust … yet in these very dynamic times where you can’t exactly understand where the risks are, and the situation changes from week to week, you need first-class risk management, but banks also need well-filled capital and liquidity cushions and a prudent approach to that capital and liquidity situation.”

END

EU//RUSSIA//GAS

As expected, Europe fails to agree on the stupid Russian gas price caps

(zerohedge)

Europe Fails To Agree On Russian Gas-Price-Caps Faced With “Hard-Core Physical Reality”

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 09:50 AM

An emergency meeting of EU energy ministers on Friday meant to reassure both energy companies and the European public regarding soaring prices and severely strained supply amid Russian countermeasures in response to Western sanctions is off to shaky and fractured start. Rather than reassure anyone of anything, it’s already clear the issue of a proposed cap on gas prices has only divided the bloc further, akin to the same prior question with oil.

Leading the way in pointing out the flawed logic of the plan, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto pointed out the blowback would be worse than the sting aimed at Russia. “If price restrictions were to be imposed exclusively on Russian gas, that would evidently lead to an immediate cut-off in Russian gas supplies. It does not take a Nobel Prize to recognize that,” he said.

Echoing prior words of Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, he said “The plan that would impose a price cap exclusively on Russian gas coming via pipelines is entirely against European and Hungarian interests.”

Jozef Síkela, the Czech energy minister chairing the meeting, went into it echoing a martial tone with talk of engaging in “energy war” which is unlikely to match any corresponding action (there won’t be any): “We are in an energy war with Russia. Putin is trying, by manipulating the market, to break the social peace in our countries, affect our way of life and attack our economies.”

Síkela said ministers were hoping to send “a clear message that will calm down the markets” by day’s end. This as over the course of the six-month Ukraine war Russian gas supplies to the collective EU have been cut by a stark 80% amid ominous reminders that “winter is coming”.

And yet, with Italy, Poland, Hungary and Greece standing out as among the most vocal opponents of such a cap among at least 10 EU countries who have voiced their reservationsFT notes that some governments are “warning that singling out Russia could push President Vladimir Putin to cut supplies to Europe completely.”

One senor EU official cited anonymously in FT summed up the ongoing dilemma as follows

“Everyone is afraid of the domino effect” if Russia cuts off supply because European states are so interconnected, said a senior EU official. “If you cut off Russian gas only, you infuriate Russia without affecting other suppliers and if you are, say, Portugal who imports no Russian gas, what can you take back to voters?”

For this reason, the meeting is not expected to delve too deep or dwell too long on the divisive price cap plan, even though Belgium is among those claiming that just “technical” issues would have to be worked out, but that a cap is achievable. Meanwhile, initial indicators point to nothing substantial coming out of the Friday meeting:

  • EU MINISTERS: MORE WORK NEEDED ON IMPORTED GAS PRICE CAP IDEA
  • MINISTERS ASK EU TO DESIGN EMERGENCY LIQUIDITY FACILITIES

 Concerning the below wire headline, the obvious question takes us back to… one wonders just how?

GERMANY’S HABECK: EU AGREED TO REDUCE ENERGY PRICE, EASE BURDEN

But back to reality, Hungary’s Szijjarto said it best upon entering the meeting: “This morning … we will do our utmost to make Brussels finally understand that gas supplies are not an ideological or political issue, but one of hard-core physical reality.”

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

IRAN

Iran unveils a new stealth combat vessel

(zerohedge)

Iran Unveils New Stealth Combat Vessel With Vertical-Launch Missiles

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 10:40 PM

A new Iranian-built advanced tech combat patrol vessel has just been put into service by the IRGC Navy. Iran’s military is claiming that the vessel, named the “Shahid Soleimani” – has a stealth capable body and design, giving it “radar-evading stealth technology, meaning that it has a very low level of radar cross-section,” state sources say.

According to Bloomberg, citing state media, the vessel is the country’s first to be equipped with a “vertical launch, short- and medium-range air defense system” – and was unveiled at a Monday ceremony at the port city of Bandar Abbas, overseen by Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces, and IRGC chief Hossein Salami.

The Shahid Soleimani is further being touted as capable of possessing higher maneuverability and smaller radius of rotation given the unique designed, compared to ships of similar size. Bagheri described of the new naval vessel, “The design and construction of this vessel was done by the elite youth and university graduates of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and it has a stealth-equipped body with a very low radar cross section, which can be considered as a national achievement for the country.”

Earlier this summer, as construction was being completed, the naval analysis site USNI News previewed the following capabilities based on available radar images of the vessel seen from overhead

These missile boats offer more conventional capabilities than the myriad of small boats operated by the IRGC-N. They could operate as command vessels for swarms of smaller boats armed with rockets, torpedoes, mines, lightweight anti-ship missiles and drones. They could also operate independently, offering a longer-range arm of the IRGC. Either way, the two new types of catamaran are likely to spearhead the IRGC-N’s modernization.

While Iran struggles to build larger warships and incorporate modern weapon systems, it continues to innovate and modernize in other fields. Its ballistic missiles are treated with respect, as are its drones and cruise missiles. Iran can build submarines and, now, modern missile corvettes.

Additionally this week Bagheri issued fresh warnings to the United States and Israel, citing the Iranian navy’s ability to secure the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The top general said in addressing naval officers:

“Also, the Zionist regime’s joining the terrorist U.S. Army’s Central Command can create threats for us. We do not tolerate Zionism, and in addition to protesting through the country’s foreign policy apparatus, we declare that we will not tolerate such development of espionage and creating threats, and we will not make any compromises regarding the rights of the Iranian nation and the security of our seas and land.”

The remarks came a day after the United States flew two nuclear-capable B-52H Stratofortresses over the Middle East on Sunday in a message aimed at Tehran. Three Israeli F-16 fighter jets had briefly joined the US mission as the bombers made their way “through Israel’s skies on their way to the (Persian) Gulf,” the Associated Press reported. 

Last week the US and Iran had multiple encounters and intercept incidents in the Gulf region, with the Iranians claiming to have seized and then let go of several US sea drones. The second Friday incident took place in the Red Sea, involving the intervention of a US warship and helicopter which forced an Iranian patrol to release a pair of seized small surface vessels seized earlier the same day.

END

TURKEY/GREECE

Turkey becoming more warlike with each passing day

(zerohedge)

Greece Informs Allies Of Ukraine-Style War Looming With Turkey

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 02:05 PM

With the Queen of England’s death as well as the EU energy crisis topping headlines, followed by the enduring Ukraine war, too few in the West seem to realize that a major crisis has been brewing in the Mediterranean which could see two NATO members enter a shooting war.

Greece has taken the unprecedented step of informing NATO HQ, the EU, and UN that a Ukraine-style war is looming with Turkey. The two have long been locked in disputes over maritime rights, the status of Greece’s Aegean islands, and airspace violations.

The letters from Athens, sent earlier this week, blasted Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan growing war rhetoric which had expressly threatened Greece in a weekend speech, “we may come down suddenly one night” and that the “the price will be heavy.” Erdogan has accused Athens of militarizing islands off Turkey’s coast in contravention of historic treaties.

The formal letters to Europe and the UN denounced Turkey’s “openly threatening” and “inflammatory” statements”. Citing contents from the letters, The Associated Press underscored the seriousness of the situation, comparing tensions to Russia-Ukraine levels just prior to the Russian invasion:

Greece’s government has written to the country’s NATO and European Union partners and the head of the United Nations, asking them to formally condemn increasingly aggressive talk by officials in neighboring Turkey and suggesting that current bilateral tensions could escalate into a second open conflict on European soil.

In the letters, copies of which were seen Wednesday by The Associated Press, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said the behavior of his country’s historic regional rival — and NATO ally — should be censured by the three bodies.

“By not doing so in time or by underestimating the seriousness of the matter, we risk witnessing again a situation similar to that currently unfolding in some other part of our continent,” he wrote, in an allusion to the war in Ukraine. “This is something none of us would really wish to see.”

The letters also said that Erdogan’s words are stoking a war posturing in Turkish society, as his remarks “imbue the Turkish people with hatred, enmity and contempt towards their Greek neighbors”.

Greece’s foreign ministry has at the same time repeatedly denounced the “outrageous daily slide” of threats and hostile rhetoric coming out of Ankara, and also from Turkish media outlets. Ahead of the formal letters submitted to to the EU, UN, and NATO, a statement vowed, “We will inform our allies and partners on the content of the provocative statements… to make it clear who is setting dynamite to the cohesion of our alliance during a dangerous period.”

Deutsche Welle: “Turkish nationalist Devlet Bahceli (right) showed a map on which key islands are marked as Turkish territory.” State media has been filled with such inflammatory content of late.

For years, Turkey, Greece and Cyprus have been at odds over expanding Turkish oil and gas drilling rights in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey is using its occupation of northern Cyprus to say that all waters encircling the island are fair game for its research and drilling vessels. Over the last half-century there’s been at least a couple of occasions where tensions where so high there were fears of a military conflict breaking out.

Other EU members, particularly France, have strongly supported EU-member Cyprus’ condemnation of incursions in its territorial waters. France has even conducted a series of joint exercises with Greece and Cyprus in solidarity. 

END

GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE ISSUES

Huge story: Life insurance data:  adults aged 35 to 44 died at twice the expected rate last summer

(Menge/EpochTimes)

Adults Aged 35–44 Died At Twice The Expected Rate Last Summer, Life Insurance Data Suggests

Authored by Margaret Menge via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Death claims for working-age adults under group life insurance policies spiked well beyond expected levels last summer and fall, according to data from 20 of the top 21 life insurance companies in the United States.

Death claims for adults aged 35 to 44 were 100 percent higher than expected in July, August, and September 2021, according to a report by the Society of Actuaries, which analyzed 2.3 million death claims submitted to life insurance firms.

The report looked at death claims filed under group life insurance policies during the 24 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, from April 2020 to March 2022. The researchers used data from the three years before the pandemic to set a baseline for the expected deaths.

While COVID-19 played some role in the majority of the excess deaths for adults over the age of 34 during the two pandemic years, the opposite was true for younger people. For people 34 and younger, the number of excess non-COVID deaths was higher than those related to COVID, the data show.

During the third quarter of last year, deaths in the 25-to-34 age bracket were 78 percent above the expected level and, for people aged 45 to 54, 80 percent higher than expected. Excess mortality was 53 percent above the baseline for adults aged 55 to 64.

The Society of Actuaries (SOA) asked all 20 of the participating life insurance companies how they determine the cause of death for the purpose of recording claims. Of the 18 that responded, 17 said they list COVID-19 as the cause of death if it’s listed anywhere on the death certificate, while eight of the 18 said they go further and communicate with relatives and the medical examiner and look at other sources to try to determine the true cause of death.

One life insurance company stated that it recorded COVID-19 as the cause of death only when it could be determined to be the primary cause of death on a death certificate.

The report also notes that white-collar workers had the highest number of excess deaths during the two years studied. The group, which includes accountants, lawyers, computer programmers, and most other jobs done in an office setting, had 23 percent more deaths than expected.

The sharp increase of deaths among working-age people was first brought to light by Scott Davison, CEO of the Indianapolis-based life insurance company OneAmerica, who said in a virtual press conference on Dec. 30, 2021, that his company and the life insurance industry as a whole was seeing a 40 percent increase in deaths among people ages 18 to 64.

Davison said at the time that this represented the highest death rates in the history of the life insurance business, and that an increase in mortality of just 10 percent would constitute a “three-sigma” event, a once-in-200-year catastrophe.

OneAmerica is one of the 20 companies that contributed data for the SOA report. The others include Aflac, Anthem, The Hartford, Lincoln Financial Group, MetLife, New York Life, and Principal Financial.

Edward Dowd, a hedge fund manager who has been studying excess mortality for the past several months and has an upcoming book on the topic, Cause Unknown, says the rate of deaths among young people is alarming. He pointed out that excess deaths peaked around the time the Biden administration mandated COVID-19 vaccines and companies rushed to comply.

Temporally, in that three-month period, the change was such that, there was something that occurred,” he said. “Well, we all know what occurred in August, September, and October. It was Biden’s mandates on Sept. 9, and a lot of corporations anticipating those mandates.

President Joe Biden on Sept. 9, 2021, mandated COVID-19 vaccines for federal employees and health care workers in facilities certified by Medicare and Medicaid. The same day, the president tasked the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) with implementing a nationwide vaccine mandate on private businesses with 100 or more employees.

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the OSHA mandate in January but allowed the mandate for health care workers to remain in place.

The campaign to vaccinate the majority of the population against COVID-19 is the largest vaccination campaign in the history of the world.

As of Aug. 31, about 90 percent of Americans 18 or older had gotten at least the first dose of one of the COVID-19 vaccines, and 77 percent had gotten both a first and a second dose.

Dr. Robert Malone, a physician and research scientist credited with the invention of the mRNA technology for use in vaccines, says excess mortality must always be studied to determine whether a vaccine or medicine really is safe.

“Excess mortality should be a signal, a trigger,” he told The Epoch Times. “When we see excess mortality like that—basically if you’re running a clinical trial and you see this kind of excess mortality, you stop the trial. And you investigate the cause before you proceed. And if you’re marketing a drug, generally, with this kind of data, you stop the distribution of the drug until you have sorted it out.”

Malone mentioned what he calls the “classic example” of thalidomide, a morning sickness medication prescribed to a small number of pregnant women in the United States in the late 1950s and early ’60s that was effective in treating morning sickness, but caused severe deformities in their unborn children.

The drug maker had pressured the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to approve the drug, but the FDA refused, based on the deformities that had been reported.

Read more here…

END

Rand Paul: “America Should Be Appalled” At Fauci Covering His Tracks

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Appearing on Fox News Wednesday, Senator Rand Paul slammed Anthony Fauci for taking the default position of trying to “cover up” his activities, including potentially encouraging social media companies to censor medical information.

After a federal judge ordered the release of emails Fauci sent to social media platforms concerning what he defined as ‘misinformation’, many want to know exactly what Fauci asked of them.

“His response was not that I’ll look into it or I’ll reveal that. His response was, by law, we don’t have to tell you which companies gave us how many royalties and to which scientists,” Paul said of Fauci, noting that the emails sent to social media bosses could reveal censorship efforts.

“I think that all of America should be appalled that America’s doctor, the leading expert on COVID in public health, doesn’t want to divulge information, doesn’t want to divulge his communications with Big Tech,” Paul urged, adding that Fauci’s “modus operandi” is to “cover up”.

As part of a lawsuit brought by Louisiana Republican Jeffrey Landry, the federal judge ruled that Fauci and White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre need to make public all relevant communications with Big Tech within the next three weeks.

Landry and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt argued in an initial filing that “having threatened and cajoled social-media platforms for years to censor viewpoints and speakers disfavored by the Left, senior government officials in the Executive Branch have moved into a phase of open collusion with social-media platforms under the Orwellian guise of halting so-called ‘disinformation,’ ‘misinformation’ and ‘malinformation.’”

Elsewhere during the interview, Senator Paul commented on revelations by Gun Owners of America that the FBI pressured Americans into signing forms that relinquished their right to purchase, possess and use firearms. 

“There is a certain irony to saying to someone you have to be mentally competent to sign this statement that says you’re not mentally competent to have a gun,” Paul noted, adding “So there is that that might be a quandary if you get into a court of law. How someone that’s mentally incompetent to own a gun could be competent to sign away their gun rights.”

“I think the whole problem we have right now is that there’s a burden upon the FBI to prove to the American public that they are not partisan,” Paul said, adding “This goes back to 2016 when they used a foreign intelligence warrant to go after Donald Trump and his campaign.”

“A foreign intelligence warrant which should be used on foreigners in a secret court was used to go after a major presidential, you know, candidate,” the Senator reiterated.

END

GLOBAL ISSUES: FERTILIZER

Now another problem surfaces fertilizer affordability! This could slash global grain production by 40%

(zerohedge)

UN Food Official Warns Fertilizer Affordability Crisis Could Slash Global Grain Production By 40%

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 02:45 AM

More than six months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the global fertilizer crunch threatens to starve a planet as prices are too high for some farmers ahead of the next planting season. 

That’s the view of Maximo Torero, chief economist from the Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN), who told Bloomberg TV that elevated fertilizer prices could decrease global grain production by upwards of 40% in the next planting season. 

Combine food supply chain disruptions due to the war in Ukraine and crop failures worldwide due to extreme weather — ramping up food production with reduced fertilizer next planting season via key exporting countries could be challenging. 

High fertilizer prices are expected to shrink the world’s rice production. The grain feeds half of humanity and is vital for political and economic stability across Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Supply disruptions could spark social instabilities in those areas of the world. We outlined the risk of unrest is high over the next six months. 

Other UN officials in recent weeks have stepped up warnings about the affordability crisis of fertilizer. Prices in North America have come off the highs but remain 220% above levels in early 2020. 

The African Development Bank warned the continent lacks 2 million metric tons of fertilizer. 

“We are really starting to yell from every tower that there’s a fertilizer crisis … and the fertilizer crisis is enormous,” one UN official who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Politico

Artificial fertilizers contain three primary ingredients: nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Farmers use the final product to boost crop yields — if prices remain elevated because of shortages, fewer fertilizers will be used, and harvests next season will shrink, continuing a multi-year food crisis that might only worsen. 

Paul Alexander..

VACCINE IMPACT/

Honey: Nature’s Miraculous Healing Food – But is the Honey You Buy Contaminated by Commercial Agriculture’s Herbicides and Pesticides?

September 8, 2022 6:10 pm

Honey is one of nature’s most perfect and beneficial foods. The documented research on the incredible health benefits of honey is truly astounding. If you type in the search term “honey” in the National Library of Medicine on the NIH Government website, you will get 15,480 results from peer-reviewed medical journals. It is the ONLY sweetener on the market that you can purchase that is a complete, whole food, as opposed to granulated sugar which is an extract from either a grass (sugar cane), or from beets (sugar beets). But purchasing real, pure, unadulterated raw honey that is not contaminated with herbicides or pesticides, is another matter altogether. Testing done in 2011 on grocery store honey showed that up to 80% of the honey sold in grocery stores is adulterated and even fake, much of it imported from China illegally. I know for a fact that this is true, because my company, Healthy Traditions, has been importing high quality pure honey from outside the United States for more than a decade, and while we do NOT import honey from China, every single shipment of honey that we have imported goes through an FDA hold to ensure that it is not “honey” that originated from China and is relabeled. It takes us more time to get honey across the border than any other product we import. Honey that is produced in the U.S. and Canada is mostly a by-product of professional bee keepers who make their primary income from leasing out their bees to pollinate crops in commercial agriculture, which are heavily treated with herbicides and pesticides, and the resulting honey from these bees is just a by-product of these commercial bee operations, and that includes most “local” honeys. So what I am going to do in this article is educate you on the numerous health benefits of raw, pure honey, and the lucrative bee and honey operations in commercial agriculture, so that you can be an informed consumer and look for pure, raw honey that is not contaminated. Pure raw honey has been proven through numerous studies to be more effective than drugs in treating many diseases, and since honey can be stored indefinitely and tends to improve with age, like fine wines, this is a food that you want in your long-term food storage plans, and you want honey that heals, not honey that is contaminated, or “honey” that is not even real honey at all.

Read More…


Inflation: State-Sponsored Terrorism

September 8, 2022 7:06 pm

Remember the quaint old days of 2019? We were told the US economy was in great shape. Inflation was low, jobs were plentiful, GDP was growing. And frankly, if covid had not come along, there is a pretty good chance Donald Trump would have been reelected. At an event in 2019, my friend and economist Dr. Bob Murphy said something very interesting about the political schism in this country. He said: If you think America is divided now, what would things look like if the economy was terrible, if we had another crash like 2008? Well, we might not have to imagine such a scenario much longer. If you think Americans are divided today, and at each other’s throats—metaphorically, but more and more literally—imagine if they were cold and hungry! Imagine if we had to live through something like Weimer Germany, Argentina in the 1980s, Zimbabwe in the 2000s, or Venezuela and Turkey today? What would our political and social divisions look like then? Ladies and gentlemen, we live under the tyranny of inflationism. It terrorizes us, either softly or loudly. I suspect it will get a lot louder soon.

Read More…


VACCINE INJURY

Young Adults Dying in Record Numbers, but Not From COVID-19

Inbox

Robert HryniakThu, Sep 8, 5:39 PM (14 hours ago)
to Harvey

https://www.theepochtimes.com/young-adults-dying-in-record-numbers-but-not-from-covid-19_4716218.html

END

The latest reports from Slay News
COVID Shots 100 Times More Likely to Cause Injury to Young Adults Than Prevent It, Study Finds
A study by renowned British and American scientists has found that COVID-19 shots are 100 times more likely to cause serious injury to young adults than prevent hospitalization from the virus.READ MORE

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

Is This ‘QEnergy’?

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 09:37 AM

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

The End Of An Era

The current feeling of uncertainty and insecurity, and of long-established norms and paradigms collapsing, cannot be better underlined than with the sad passing of Queen Elizabeth II yesterday at 96. She was world famous for being THE Queen in a way no monarch, British or otherwise, likely will ever be again. She was also the one personal, not political, institution that most Britons could still respect, and her absence leaves a vacuum in a divided country already unsure of itself, cut loose from other anchors, and buffeted by many storms.

Against that sad backdrop, markets had the same feeling.

Early in the day, RBA Governor Lowe gave a dovish speech flagging “large” (meaning 50bps) hikes would soon give way to smaller steps, and that inflation expectations remain well-anchored. The press flagged this as an avantgarde policy pivot, and the bond market took it that way, yields plunging in the immediate aftermath the equivalent of a small rate cut; which loosens financial conditions; which juices inflation.

Except the RBA is never ahead of the curve; it did not go to this year’s Jackson Hole, perhaps to avoid hearing the hawkish message there; and it is behind the current curve given the red-hot local labour market and broader structural changes underway. The open secret is that this dovish tone was about the property market: yet, globally, the era of ‘asset-prices first!’ looks over.  

Underlining that fact, the ECB meeting yesterday saw the 75bps hike expected, taking the deposit facility rate to 0.75% and the refi rate to 1.25%. As our ECB-watchers conclude, with markets pricing far more than 50bps, the Bank had no choice.

Yet President Lagarde was unequivocally hawkish, stressing “we’re so far away from a rate that will get inflation to 2%”. ECB projections are now of: significantly lower growth (if no recession in the base case, which seems extremely optimistic given Germany’s economy minister is talking about shutting down swathes of industry ahead); and significantly higher inflation, now seen at 8.1% in 2022, 5.5% in 2023, and still an above-target 2.3% in 2024. As a result, they have upgraded their ECB rate forecasts to a 50bp hike in October, another 50bp in December, and then 25bp in January, with risks to the upside. And this in an economy faring far worse than Australia.

(In terms of other technicalities, the ECB will continue to reinvest all maturing APP/PEPP assets, and the 0% interest rate cap on government deposits has been lifted until 30 April 2022 to ensure that rate hikes will correctly be transmitted into money markets: see the linked report for more coverage of the structural technicalities of these issues.)

Lagarde was very blunt about the Bank’s forecast errors for inflation, and was willing to say that ‘was on her’. She was equally blunt talking about the fact that monetary policy cannot produce energy, and that this crisis is largely a supply-side issue. Surprisingly, however, the ECB did not cover potential EU energy subsidies and what their impact on inflation, growth, rates, and markets would be. For that, we had to look back to the UK, where discussion on this vital topic was naturally overshadowed by events at Balmoral.

The UK’s new energy price guarantee caps most household bills at around £2,500 (based on normal usage) for two years will save a typical family £1,049 a year relative to the cap announced by Ofgem only a fortnight ago, and even more relative to some of the very gloomy projections for Q1 2023 (e.g., £5-6,000). That should reduce inflation by nearly 5ppts from Q4 onwards, even if it remains very high historically. Moreover, support for businesses for an initial 6-months will stave off energy-induced bankruptcies, but the details of this scheme are still unclear. Overall, this represents a vast structural change to the UK economy that naturally flows through to markets.

(Unreported in the financial press, but in a similar-yet-broader vein, the Fed’s Brainard on Wednesday had argued part of brining inflation down might need to involve “reductions in markups” – i.e., firms reducing profit margins voluntarily; or price controls(?) This is an idea originating from Sraffa and Robinson, the latter coining the term “monopsony”; used by Nixon in the 1970s; and championed today by Isabella Weber.)  

The upside to the UK energy scheme is that recession might now be avoided; yet it also risks pushing up domestically-generated inflation over the medium term. That means rates may not have to rise as much now, but may need to rise more later.

There is also the issue of the vast cost involved, because anyone thinking this scheme will only last for six months, or two years, is not looking at geopolitics or physics, which is what got us into this mess in the first place. Will this debt be funded with gilts issuance, just as US QT looms in the backdrop, and as higher longer-term inflation and rates are expected? That looks like a steeper yield curve. Yet the BOE is offering a £40bn Energy Markets Financing Scheme facility to help: is this ‘QEnergy’? That may repress bond yields: but then Sterling will slump. This all logically applies to Europe too, where acronyms to control yields are already in place.

In a hectic day, the Fed’s Powell also gave a short speech simultaneously, which emphasized their next hike is likely to be another 75bp. Moreover, he pointed out the economy’s structure is ever-changing, and the key issue is if higher inflation now is temporary (dare we say “transitory”?) or structural. Further, the BIS –the central bankers’ central bank– chipped in timely fashion with a high-level speech arguing higher inflation is likely structural. It specifically notes:

There are reasons to believe that the environment will become more inflationary. In some respects, a return to a high-inflation regime always threatened to be the endgame of the trajectory the global economy has followed for the past 40 years. Maybe the pandemic and the war – two exogenous shocks – have brought the endogenous endgame closer.

Why such an endgame?

Many of the secular economic tailwinds that helped keep inflation low could be turning into headwinds. Demographics? We know that this tailwind will become a headwind, as a scarcer labour force will see its bargaining power grow. Globalisation? There are some signs that it may be in retreat. Moreover, new headwinds are emerging. The transition to a greener economy will put strong pressure on many commodity prices – we have recently seen once more what the consequences might be. And in the background, there are also signs that the (geo)political environment is becoming less supportive of global international cooperation and free market forces. Populism seems to be on the rise.

Last but not least, the legacy of the past 40 years is still with us in the shape of historically high debt levels. This could raise the temptation to accept inflation as a deceptively attractive way of reducing debt burdens.

It is not hard to see how this environment – closer to that of the 1970s – is structurally more inflationary. But the future is not preordained. The task of central banks is to prevent inflation from materialising. In such an environment, central banks will be tested to the full, not least institutionally. As the costs of higher interest rates to public finances became more starkly visible, central bank independence is likely to come under threat.”

And in that fast-moving geopolitical environment: Ukraine just retook a swathe of Russian-held territory; India imposed a 20% duty on rice exports; and Germany’s economy minister is considering steps to make doing business with China less attractive in order to reduce strategic dependencies. In short, all that is solid melts into air, and the only constant is change.

Long Live King Charles III. (Yet historians will note both Charles I and Charles II reigned in times of huge political turmoil.)

It’s a very sad Friday.

END   

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

AUSTRALIA

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0051 UP  0.0042 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 142.38   DOWN  1.495 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1560 UP   0.0040

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 26.47 POINTS OR 0.82%

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 507.63 PTS OR 2.69% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.76%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 507.63 PTS OR  2.69% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 26.47 PTS  OR 0.82% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.76% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 149.47 OR 0.53%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1725.65

silver:$18.70

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 108.92 DOWN 79  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

 FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.75% UP 2  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.243% DOWN 0    AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.85%// UP 2  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.01  UP 6   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +1.70% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0036 UP  .0026   or 26 basis points

USA/Japan: 142.53 DOWN 1.34 OR YEN UP 134 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1577 UP .0056 OR 56 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0035 OR 35 BASIS pts  to 1.3047

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.9265 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.9359

TURKISH LIRA:  18.23  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.243

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 0  IN basis points from THURSSDAY at  3.293% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.448 UP 1  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 109.07 DOWN 64 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 105.15 PTS OR  1.45%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 175.85 POINTS OR 1.39%

Paris CAC CLOSED  UP 95.59 PTS OR 1.56% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 120.60 OR  1.52%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 413.02PTS OR  1.91%

WTI Oil price 86.14  12: EST

Brent Oil:  91.55 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  60.46  UP 0  AND 27/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.70`

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0045 UP .0036     OR  36 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1594 UP  .0074 or  74 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 142.444 DOWN 1.210//YEN UP 121 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3026 DOWN 0.0055  (CDN dollar, UP 55 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 86.40

Brent OIL:  92.39

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.327 UP 4 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.465  UP 3  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.23

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.60  UP 0 AND   13 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 377.19 PTS OR 0.19 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 267.10 PTS OR 2.17%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.80 DOWN 0.81 PTS (3.43)%

GLD: $159.81 UP 0.83 OR 0.52%

SLV/ $17.32 UP 29 CENTS OR 1.70%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Soar On Biggest Squeeze In 5 Months As Hawknado Deepens Yield-Curve Inversion

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Despite an avalanche of hawknados (mixing metaphors in the most maleficent manner)…

  • *BULLARD SAYS MARKETS UNDERPRICING ‘HIGHER FOR LONGER’ RATES
  • *BULLARD SAYS GOOD CPI REPORT SHOULDN’T AFFECT SEPT. FED CALL
  • *WALLER BACKS ‘ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT’ RATE HIKE IN SEPTEMBER
  • *WALLER: INFLATION FAR TOO HIGH, PREMATURE TO JUDGE IT’S PEAKED
  • *WALLER: IF WE DON’T GET INFLATION DOWN WE’RE IN TROUBLE
  • *GEORGE: FED HAS SOME ROOM TO RUN TO BRING INTEREST RATES UP
  • *GEORGE: WARNS OF POSSIBLE DIFFICULT PATH IN LOWERING INFLATION

All of which sent hawkish waves through Short-Term Interest-Rates (STIRs)…

Source: Bloomberg

Powell leading his hawkmen into battle against the market short-squeeze-driven easing of financial conditions…

As far as rate-trajectory expectations, Sept is now almost a lock for 75bps, Nov is pricing in a 50bps hike (16% odds of another 75bps), and Dec is priced for a 25bps hike…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity markets rallied on the week in the face of surging rate expectations… (it’s happening again)…

Source: Bloomberg

The narrative delivered to investors is ‘hope’ for a ‘soft landing’ and ‘peak inflation’ – which is echoed by the collapse in Breakevens – but STIRs ain’t buying it and this has the smell of another June-July-esque negative-delta squeeze as the last 3 days have seen ‘most shorted’ stocks soar over 12% – the biggest 3-day squeeze since late-May…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq and Small Caps led the charge on the week, erasing all of the post-payrolls pump’n’dump…This is the best week for the S&P 500 since early July…

All the US majors pushed back up to (and beyond in some cases) their 50- and 100-DMAs…

The S&P 500 squeezed back above 4,000 and traded back into the range of Jay Powell’s Jackson-Hole speech day)…

Consumer Discretionary sector outperformed on the week and whil Energy soared today, it was the laggard on the week (though all sectors were green on the week)…

Source: Bloomberg

The holiday-shortened week saw Treasury yields higher across the curve with the short-end underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y Yields topped 3.56% – the highest since 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened/inverted further this week, reversing all of the post-payrolls print steepening…

Source: Bloomberg

Breakevens (especially shorter-dated) have plunged this week – now 2Y BEs at their lowest since Jan 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar slipped lower on the week (after an initial surge) ending back unchanged from before the payrolls print last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos managed gains on the week with Ethereum outperforming bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bitcoin surged up towards $21,500 today, erasing most of the post-Powell-Jackson-Hole plunge…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were oddly mixed this week with Silver and Copper soaring while gold and crude ended unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed to find support at $1700 once again this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that financial conditions have ‘eased’ back from mid-June highs (tights) in the last few days…

Source: Bloomberg

Will this ‘easing’ cycle swing all the way lower again?

Jay Powell is not going to be happy…

END

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//

END

THIS AFTERNOON

ii) USA DATA//

US Household Net Worth Crashed By Most Ever In Q2

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 12:30 PM

Globally, debt and equity capital markets lost around $23 trillion of ‘wealth’ in Q2 as Putin’s invasion sent commodity prices higher, slammed stocks on recession fears, and central banks around the world engaged in policy-tightening to battle the inflationary monster at their doors.

Source: Bloomberg

In the US, The Fed’s Flow of Funds data issued today shows that US Households lost a shocking $6.1 trillion in Q2 – the largest quarterly loss ever (bigger than the aggregate loss reported in Q1 2020 during the peak of COVID lockdown policies around the world)…

Source: Bloomberg

We do caveat that drop with the words we shared for Q1:

“This number is garbage and only makes sense if households were allowed to mark their own stock prices… the real net worth drop could be multiples of this…”

This is the second consecutive quarterly drop in net worth (after falling about $147 billion in the first quarter), dragging the total down to $143.8 trillion… as The Fed balance sheet begins to rollover…

Source: Bloomberg

And this is all happening against a background of the “strongest economy ever…”

END

iii)USA economic commentaries

Essential reading!

(zerohedge)

The “Scariest Paper Of 2022” Reveals The Terrifying Fate Of Biden’s Economy: Millions Are About To Lose Their Job

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 03:20 PM

For much of the past year (and certainly at the time, more than a year ago, when the so-called experts, central bankers and macrotourists were still yapping about “transitory inflation” and other things they were wrong about and do not understand), we were warning that at some point the Fed will realize that it is simply impossible to contain supply-driven inflation through stubborn rate hikes which instead would lead to a dire alternative – millions in mass layoffs and newly unemployed workers …

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… and will revise its 2% inflation target higher, a move which will send every risk asset – from high-beta trash and meme stonks, to blue-chip icons, to bitcoin and cryptos limit up.

To remind readers of this coming phase shift, we most recently warned in June that “at some point Fed will concede it has no control over supply. That’s when we will start getting leaks of raising the inflation target“…

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Well, it turns out that we were right, and not just about the coming mass layoffs, but also about the inflation target leaks. But first, lets back up a bit.

A little over one year after nobody expected the Fed would be hiking rates like a drunken sailor until some time in late 2023 or 2024, it has now become fashionable to not only predict that the Fed will keep hiking rates at every FOMC meeting and at the fastest pace since the near-hyperinflation of the 1980s, but that the central bank will somehow manage to avoid a hard landing (i.e., the hiking cycle won’t end in a recession or depression), even though every single Fed tightening cycle since 1913 has ended in disaster.

An example of this was the statement by former Fed vice chair (and PIMCO’s “twice-revolving door”) Rich Clarida, who told CNBC that “failure is not an option for Jay Powell,” adding that “I think they’re going to 4% hell or high water. Until inflation comes down a lot, the Fed is really a single mandate central bank.”

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Of course, if one could hike rates in a vacuum that could work – after all, Clarida himself, who admits he got this year’s soaring inflation dead wrong when he was still a daytrading god and part oft he Fed in 2021, said that the Fed may as well have just one mandate, namely to tame inflation. But what so few seem to recall is that the Fed is “hiking to spark a recession“, or as CNBC’s Steve Liesman put it, there is no such thing as “immaculate rate hikes” meaning that rate hikes have dire tradeoffs in other sectors of the economy. In other words, if the Fed’s intention is to spark a recession, it will spark a recession… leading to millions of Americans losing their jobs, something which even Elizabeth Warren appears to have grasped.

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Yet due to the recency bias of Biden’s trillions in stimmies, and a world where workers – whether working form home or the office – have virtually all the leverage, few today can conceive of a world where inflation is zero or negative and is instead replaced with millions in unemployed workers, an outcome which one could (or rather should) say is even worse for the ruling democrats than roaring inflation. At least, with runaway prices, most people have a job and their wages are rising (at least nominally, if not in real terms).

However, the higher rates rise, the closer we get to that inevitable moment when the BLS – unable to kick the can any longer – admits what has been obvious to so many for months: the US is facing a labor crisis of epic proportions with millions and millions of mass layoffs. And for those to whom it is not yet obvious, we urge to read a WSJ op-ed published by none other than Jason Furman, who is not some crackpot republican but Obama’s own top Economic Adviser from 2013-2017 and currently economic policy professor at Harvard.

In Inflation and the Scariest Economics Paper of 2022, Furman summarizes a paper written by Johns Hopkins macroeconomist Larry Ball with co-authors Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra of the International Monetary Fund released by the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, whose conclusion is as follows: “To bring price increases down to 2%, we may need to tolerate unemployment of 6.5% for two years.

In other words, just as we said, inflation – much of which is supply-driven, which the Fed can do nothing about – will force the Fed to crush the economy by keeping rates for much longer, the result of which will be many millions in unemployed workers, or as Furman puts it, the paper “shows why the Federal Reserve will likely need to maintain its war on inflation, even if unemployment continues to rise.”

What is more remarkable about Furman’s read of the economist paper is that in addition to its primary theme (the lack of labor slack, or labor tightness, is responsible for some 3.4% of underlying inflation in July 2022), the paper admits precisely what we have been saying all along – that the Fed can’t control supply-side variables:

The paper also argues, convincingly in my view, for a different measure of underlying inflation. Fluctuations in energy and food prices are generally due to factors outside the control of macroeconomic policy makers. Geopolitics and weather have elevated the inflation rate in recent years. Plunging gasoline prices are temporarily lowering the inflation rate now. That’s why economists since the 1970s have focused on “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy.

But food and energy aren’t the only things people buy that are subject to supply-side volatility. Prices of new and used cars, for example, have gyrated over the past two years for reasons that are mostly unrelated to the strength of the overall economy. Both regular and core inflation are based on taking averages of price increases and can be distorted by large changes in outlier categories. The median inflation rate calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland drops outliers to remove these distortions.

According to Furman, median inflation – which is a statistically better measure of the underlying inflation that policy makers can actually control – is well above the Fed’s preferred headline inflation print (which fell to zero in July on a sequential basis and has stabilize) and shows no sign of moderating and has run at a 6.6% annual rate in the last three months.

But the “scariest” part of the new paper, Furman reveals, is when the authors use their model to forecast the unemployment rate that would be needed to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target. He explains why this is so scary:

The authors present a range of scenarios, so I ran their model using my own assumptions…  Under these assumptions, which are more optimistic than the authors’ midpoint scenario, if the unemployment rate follows the Federal Open Market Committee’s median economic projection from June that the unemployment will rise to only 4.1%, then the inflation rate will still be about 4% at the end of 2025. To get the inflation rate to the Fed’s target of 2% by then would require an average unemployment rate of about 6.5% in 2023 and 2024.

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Where is unemployment now: it’s 3.7% (6.014 million unemployed workers vs 164.746 million civilian labor force). This matters, because according to one of the most erudite economist Democrats, by the end of the Biden admin in 2024, the unemployment will have to soar to 6.5% for inflation to plunge to the Fed’s historical target of 2.0%

What does this mean in absolute numbers? Assuming a modest increase in the US labor force, a 6.5% unemployment rate in 2024 would translate into no less than 10.8 million unemployed workers, an 80% increase from the 6 million today!

Still think that politicians – and especially Democrats – will sit quietly and blindly ignore how high the Fed is hiking rates if it means that to normalize inflation back to 2% it means nearly doubling the number of unemployed Americans (and a crushing recession to boot). Spoiler alert: no, they won’t, and this may be one of the very rare occasions when Elizabeth Warren is actually right to worry about what the coming mass layoff wave means for Democrats… and the 2024 presidential election.

So what should the Fed do? Well, according to Furman, the Fed has four options:

  1. First, place more emphasis on the ratio of job openings to unemployment and median inflation as it assesses the tightness of labor markets and the underlying rate of inflation.
  2. Second, the new paper shows how much easier it will be to tackle inflation if expectations remain under control. The Fed should follow up on Chairman Jerome Powell’s tough talk at Jackson Hole with meaningful action such as a 75-basis-point increase at the next meeting.
  3. Third, be prepared to accept the unemployment rate rising above 5% if inflation is still out of control.

While we doubt #3 is actionable, what is more remarkable is Furman’s final proposal: it’s the one that, like the Dude’s proverbial rug, ties the room together and sets the stage for what is coming:

Finally, stabilizing at a 3% inflation rate is probably healthier for the economy than stabilizing at 2%—so while fighting inflation should be the central bank’s only focus today, at some point the Fed should reassess the meaning of victory in that struggle.

And just in case his WSJ proves too complicated for some mainstream experts and economists, here it is in truncated, twitter format:

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And there you have it: remember what we said on June 21: “At some point Fed will concede it has no control over supply. That’s when we will start getting leaks of raising the inflation target.” Well… there it is.

And while mainstream economists and the market may require quite a few months to grasp what is coming, it is the only way out of a crisis of commodities – as Zoltan has repeatedly and correctly put it – and which central banks have no control over, and thus will have to move not only the goalposts but the entire football field to avoid a social revolt or something even scarier.

While we wait, we can’t help but snicker at what the 79-year-old figurehead in the White House tweeted today…

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… because what Biden calls “the strongest economic recovery in recent history” is – even according to Democrats – about to be the biggest economic disaster in modern history.

end

“Yellen Was Massively Blind” – RH CEO Routs ‘Slow & Wrong’ Policymakers For Making Things Worse

FRIDAY, SEP 09, 2022 – 02:40 PM

In April, RH (the stock-buyback/short-squeeze mogul formerly known as Restoration Hardware) reported dismal earnings which sent its stock plunging and prompted CEO Gary Friedman to give an ominous assessment of the overall macro situation.

While first quarter sales and margin strand to remain healthy due to the ongoing relief of our backlog, we have experienced softening demand in the first quarter that coincided with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February and the market volatility that followed. We believe it is prudent to remain conservative until demand trends return to normal and — we are providing the following outlook for the first quarter of 2022.”

This was shocking at the time as it was the first direct admission of tangible weakness in consumer end-demand, and was soundly mocked by all the ‘consumer is strong’ narrative-pushers as idiocysncratically focused on RH and not systemically-based. Friedman went on at the time:

And you’ve got inflation like I’ve never seen.

Now I was telling people, when Yellen said, we’re going back to 2%, we were just signing our new freight contracts, ocean freight contracts. I just wonder if the Fed has picked up the phone and called a business person and said, hi, what do you think is happening with inflation?

How is ocean rates? How is this? How is that?

I mean I don’t think anybody really understands what’s coming from an inflation point of view, because either businesses are going to make a lot less money or they’re going to raise their prices. And I don’t think anybody really understands how high prices are going to go everywhere. In restaurants, in cars and everything. And I think it’s going to outrun the consumer. And I think we’re going to be in some tricky space. So everything is kind of happening at once. 

And I think you got to prepare for war. I mean if you’re going into a very difficult, unpredictable time, you just got to be super flexible, you’ve got to be able to improvise, adapt, overcome and kind of be ready for anything.

His comments unleashed a pall over the broader retail sector. 

Now, five months later, Friedman is dropping more truth bombs, this time even more focused on who (or what) he blames for the worsening crisis the American consumer and economy faces.

Responding to  question about reduced Q3 guidance, Friedman started by reminding analysts on last night’s earnings call that he saw this coming (as we showed above):

…there’s nothing in our business that’s happening right now that’s surprising to us, that we didn’t see a long time ago.

And I think — I don’t know when it was like in February and March, when I spoke about what I thought was going to happen in that, four out of five times the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, we have a recession. That’s just the math. It’s not my opinion. Four out of five times the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the U.S. goes into a recession. And then everybody called me Doomsday forecaster. And I became a meme for a while there. And so — but everybody thought like I was Mr. Negative. I’m like Mr. Positive. Anybody who knows me well knows I’m probably — I’m just like wildly optimistic.

But I’m also wildly realistic about things that you can know. And there’s just data and trends.

The outspoken CEO continues to point out that only octagenarians (or older) like George Soros and Warren Buffett can remember actually trading through a period like this before…

It doesn’t look good. When I circled the last the last 20 years, the average Federal Funds rate was 2%. And if you look at it over the last 30 years, I think it’s 3%, average 3%.

And if you look at the last time we had real inflation, most of the people that are managing a lot of money on Wall Street or foreign positions were kids. And I thought like nobody’s seen what’s happening right now. Nobody’s seen inflation like this in their lifetimes.

And that is when the fingers start to get pointed…

Never seen anything like this.

Never seen interest rates — never seen the inflation like this. Never seen interest rates like this.

That’s why Powell was so wrong in the beginning. That’s why Janet Yellen was like massively blind and wrong. I mean — and Fed moved too slow, quite frankly. And now because they move too slow, we’re going to see higher interest rates than we would have if they would have moved faster.

And I’d say we’re going to have — the interest rate is going to go higher. It’s going to hit the housing market first. And the housing market is the biggest part of the U.S. economy. And it’s going to drag down everything.

And if I’m wrong, that’s OK. But the data is there. Now like nobody should be surprised about what’s going to happen here.

And so I mean, yes, do we look at our numbers and stuff like that? It’s all kind of irrelevant, right? What’s really relevant is we’re unseen before inflation. We’re an unseen before for most of the people in business today that are not 80 years old plus interest rate. Yes, interest rates rise. I mean like — and where it’s going to go.

I think that’s why Powell said like, OK, now we got it. We have to move because otherwise, I’m going to sit here and have a mess like Volker.

So, concludes the RH CEO, “that’s why we’re not aggressively buying back our stock. That’s why we have raised $2 billion when we did – $2.5 billion when we did. Why did we raise it? Because that’s what we saw.”

Friedman’s words echo those of the Fed Chair himself, warning that there is likely more pain ahead. But for now, retail investors remain committed by BTFD in hopes that inflation has peaked and The Fed knows it… and Powell will pivot in the face of his heartily hawkish jawboning. It sounds to us like Friedman isn’t buying the ‘soft landing’ narrative…

end

Now the Northeast of the uSA effected by drought:

(zerohedge)

“Really A Desperate Time”: Summer Drought Wreaks Havoc Across Northeast Farmland

THURSDAY, SEP 08, 2022 – 08:40 PM

Drought conditions expanded and intensified over the Northeast this summer, according to the latest report from the US Drought Monitor

Extreme drought plagues eastern Massachusetts, including Boston, and southern and eastern Rhode Island. A severe drought is more widespread, encompassing much of South Jersey up to the coastal area of Maine. Much of the Northeast is in abnormally dry conditions as of Thursday. 

The emergence of the Northeast drought comes as the US West experiences a historic megadrought threatening supplies of fresh water, food, and hydropower. 

As of Tuesday, not a single county in Connecticut, Massachusetts, or Rhode Island is free of drought (and or dry conditions). This will impact the summer’s growing season and may shrink crop yields.

In Rhode Island, farmers who can typically harvest hay three times in a season are expected to do so only once this year. Because each harvest varies in quality and size, that means losing about half the value of the entire crop, estimated Henry Wright, who grows about 300 acres (121 hectares) of hay and corn. 

The fields are in such poor condition that as the season winds down, Wright is unlikely to be able reseed in the fall. He’ll have to wait until next year, shortening the growing season. He expects the 2023 hay crop to be only 10% to 20% of normal. 

“It’s just not going to happen,” said Wright, who’s also president of the Rhode Island Farm Bureau. “This is really a desperate time.”

In parts of Massachusetts in late August, the Charles River, which runs along Harvard University’s campus and is the site of a world-renowned annual rowing competition, shrank to a trickle. Near the Cochrane Dam on the border of the towns of Needham and Dover, the river mainly became a series of disconnected puddles and pools. 

In Rhode Island, “we had fairly normal rainfall through June, then it just dropped off the edge of a table,” said Ken Ayars, chief of the agriculture and forest environment division at the state Department of Environmental Management.

The drought is also affecting the quality of the feed that’s available, which will impact how much milk the cows produce. And because cows don’t sweat, they don’t do well in the heat, which can further affect their milk supply. Osofsky expects the herd’s output to be down about a fifth this year, shaving 20% off his annual profit of $300,000 to $400,000. And that’s excluding the additional expense of buying feed. 

“The whole dairy game is milk,” Osofsky said. “It’s making as much milk as we can as cheaply as we can. So this has made it terribly expensive to do.” — Bloomberg 

The drought has also impacted some drinking water reservoirs across New Jersey. In July, the Murphy administration asked New Jersey residents and businesses to conserve water due to moderate to severe drought impacting parts of the state. The water crisis appears worse further north. 

Brad Rippey, a meteorologist with the US Department of Agriculture, said a high-pressure system above the Northeast had been the source of the dryness. He said the system blocked storms from coming into the region, contributing to less rainfall. 

Rippey said 40% of the US is consumed in a drought. A protracted La Niña weather pattern has meant hotter and drier weather conditions in the West. 

The odds of La Nina sticking around through January are now 80%, up from 72% a month ago, according to a new forecast by the US Climate Prediction Center. This could be the third time since 1950 when the weather phenomenon occurred in three consecutive years. 

So is La Nina to blame for chaotic weather patterns across the US, or is it “climate change” as the mainstream media is hellbent on convincing the masses the world is headed for climate doom? 

END

SWAMP STORIES

THE KING REPORT

The King Report September 8, 2022 Issue 6839Independent View of the News
  BOJ Boosts Bond Buying as Yields Advance Toward Policy Limit
The Bank of Japan said it would boost scheduled bond purchases as the intensifying Treasuries selloff puts upward pressure on global yields and weakens the yen.  The BOJ said it would buy 550 billion yen ($3.8 billion) of five-10 year bonds at its regular operations, up from 500 billion yen scheduled. The move comes as Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield hit 0.245%, approaching the 0.25% upper limit of the BOJ’s tolerated trading band…  https://t.co/xabClkVu91
 
Energy crisis an ‘existential threat’ to EU metal production -Eurometaux
The European Union needs to reduce power costs in the region to prevent the permanent closure of metal producing plants in the region, which would increase reliance on imports with higher carbon footprints, industry association Eurometaux said.  About 50% of EU aluminium and zinc production capacity “has already been forced offline due to the power crisis”, Eurometaux said in a letter to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/energy-crisis-an-existential-threat-eu-metal-production-eurometaux-2022-09-07/
 
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model reduced its Q3 GDP estimate to 1.36% from 2.59%.
 
Stocks rallied on Wednesday morning because Nasdaq had declined for 7 consecutive sessions, and there was an Apple Event at 13:00 ET.  Apple was expected to launch iPhone 14.
 
ESUs were down sharply during most of Asian trading.  After a modest rally into the European open, ESUs and stocks sank when Europe opened.  Traders, of course, bought the opening dip, creating a bottom at 3:30 ET.  After a 30-handle ESU spike by 4:02 ET, ESUs and stocks then traded in a tight range until they commenced a decline shortly after the US bond market opened at 8 ET.
 
The pre-NYSE rally commenced right on schedule.  ESUs and stocks stair-stepped higher, abetted by pattern buying for the Apple Event until 11:02 ET.  ESUs and stocks then went inert until they broke lower at 12:15 ET.  The drop ended at 12:25 ET.  It was time to get long for the Apple Event at 13:00 ET.
 
ESUs surged 21 handles by 12:42 ET.  After a minor retreat, ESUs relentlessly plodded higher and hit a peak of 3988.75 at 15:30 ET.  ESUs and stocks then rolled over, falling modestly into the close.
 
Apple’s biggest iPhone surprise: No U.S. price hikes
Apple said the entry level iPhone 14 will start at $799, the same amount that it initially charged for last year’s iPhone 13. The successor to the iPhone 13 Pro, the iPhone 14 Pro, remains at $999. Apple’s highest-end iPhone, the Pro Max, still starts at $1099 for the new version…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/07/apples-biggest-iphone-surprise-no-us-price-hikes.html
 
Bad News Is Great: Stocks Hit Session Highs After Beige Book Downgrades Growth, Sees “Softening” Demand, Moderating Price Growth
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bad-news-great-stocks-hit-session-highs-after-beige-book-downgrades-growth-sees-softening
 
WTI Oil sank as much as 5.9% to a low of $81.70 on recession angst.  The dollar declined smartly; precious metals rallied sharply.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Equities rallied on oversold buying and pattern buying for the Apple Event
Apple and Fangs led the rally
A rebound rally from an extremely oversold condition commenced
 
Negative aspects of previous session
The DJTA was negative all session
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Bonds rallied sharply; oil tumbled; copper & aluminum hit 17-month lows on recession angst
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: UpLast Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3957.93
Previous session High/Low3987.89; 3906.03
 
Fed’s Mester warns high rents mean inflation may not yet have peaked http://reut.rs/3RunOKX
 
Fed’s Mester Warns Against Declaring Early Victory on Inflation (Addressed MBS QT)
The central bank is also reducing its balance sheet by up to $95 billion a month… Mester repeated that she would support selling mortgage-backed securities at some point to help return the Fed’s portfolio to one that invests primarily in Treasuries. She also said she is more concerned about how the balance sheet reduction affects liquidity in financial markets than she is with determining how much that process affects interest rates… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-mester-warns-against-declaring-140000711.html
 
Many pundits cannot cogitate why the dollar is so strong versus the yen.  The following article explains the intricacies of the repo market and avers that the immense leverage in the global financial system is strengthening the dollar.  The highest quality collateral is US Treasuries.  The mind-addling leverage in the global financial system is producing a regular shortage of collateral, which is creating habitual ‘fails’ in the repo market.  Yes, Virginia, this was a huge problem in 2008 and in several years thereafter.
 
It’s Not Just the Japanese Who Can’t Afford to Wait for the Inevitable Truth
What’s wrongly called the “yen carry trade” is Japanese banks redistributing euro dollars on a collateralized basis. Given the inherent maturity mismatch when doing this, Tokyo’s big firms end up short dollars and short collateral.  Thus, any dollar shortage which strongly implicates collateral problems (isn’t this all of them?) comes out in something like repo fails, tied now closely together with JPY as Japanese banks struggle mightily under the weight of being eurodollar-ed…
    In terms of repo and collateral, this reluctance to look deeper was exposed by the Treasury market on October 15, 2014. To this day, the government claims it was nothing more than computerized trades run amok. In its multi-agency report issued in July 2015, while admitting “no single cause is apparent in the data”…  Those aspects tell us next to nothing about why everything happened, merely what data shows when it did. As you might surmise, the word “collateral” does not appear once, not a single instance in its seventy-six fluffed up pages…
    Though it was never mentioned anywhere in any official source, repo fails had indeed surged in the months leading up to October 2014. Throughout June and July, weekly and average fails more than doubled – right as the US$’s exchange value began its “unexpected”, seemingly superstitious surge at the time blamed on looming Fed rate hikes… Fails would remain elevated for months, making an especially conspicuous rise at the end of Q3 2014 and then again two weeks later, which just so happened to be the week of October 15…
    These updated collections collect nothing about collateral transformation, the very thing which nearly ended AIG but did end the pre-crisis era for money, markets, and economy…
    “Imagine an insurance company that wants to engage in a derivatives transaction. To do so, it is required to post collateral with a clearinghouse, and, because the clearinghouse has high standards, the collateral must be ‘pristine’ – that is, it must be in the form of Treasury securities. However, the insurance company doesn’t have any unencumbered Treasury securities available-all it has in unencumbered form are some junk bonds. Here is where the collateral swap comes in. The insurance company might approach a broker-dealer and engage in what is effectively a two-way repo transaction, whereby it gives the dealer its junk bonds as collateral, borrows the Treasury securities, and agrees to unwind the transaction at some point in the future. Now the insurance company can go ahead and pledge the borrowed Treasury securities as collateral for its derivatives trade.”…
    The 12 minutes of illiquid buying on October 15, again a ‘buying panic’, clearly had nothing to do with computer trading.”  In short, it was a margin or really collateral call which provoked a reverse of too many collateral-for-collateral swaps, leaving those suddenly exposed to panic-bid whatever good and useful collateral they could get at whatever price it took to get it…
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/09/02/its_not_just_the_japanese_who_cant_afford_to_wait_for_the_inevitable_truth_851440.html
 
@JeffSnider_AIP: FRBNY (NY Feed) altered FR2004C call sheet from Primary Dealers in Jan ’22 to gather more information on repo market and collateral. What did they find? Just what we thought they would – the need to go further into the shadows.
 
Kim Kardashian’s Newest Business Venture: Private Equity (No froth in the market?)
Reality star and entrepreneur is joining with former Carlyle partner Jay Sammons to launch new firm  
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kim-kardashians-latest-business-venture-private-equity-11662543001
 
Unsealed FBI docs reveal a flurry of calls and stock trades by Sen. Burr (R-NC) in early 2020
Burr was ultimately not charged with breaking any laws, but the newly released records show FBI agents believed Burr had committed insider trading and securities fraud.  The most compelling new evidence is the flurry of calls and texts between Burr, his wife Brooke Burr, her brother Gerald Fauth and Fauth’s wife that took place on the same days that both the Fauths and the Burrs sold off hundreds of thousands of dollars of stock right before the market plunged…  (Burr is retiring.) https://t.co/yHmXodHvGF
 
Today – Equities had an oversold rally, abetted by pattern buying for the Apple Event on Wednesday.  Apple and Fangs led the rally.  Bonds also experienced a rebound rally.  Traders will try to extend both rallies today.  A rebound rally to alleviate a very oversold condition was a high probability.  It could last another session or two.
 
ESUs are -4.00 at 20:10 ET.  Today, December (Z) should become the front month for equity futures.
 
Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 235k, Continuing Claims 1.438m; July Consumer Credit $32.0B; Powell speaks at Cato Institute Monetary Conference 9:10 ET, Chicago Fed Pres Evans 12:00 ET on economy, Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 14:20 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4022; 100-day MA: 4038; 150-day MA: 4166; 200-day MA: 4282
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,168; 100-day MA: 32,310; 150-day MA: 33,986; 200-day MA: 33,619
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4800.68 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3877.02 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4078.14 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3923.90 triggers a sell signal
 
The FBI Secretly Pressured Americans to Waive Away Their Gun Rights
The FBI secretly provided forms to Americans between 2016 and 2019 to “voluntarily” relinquish their rights to own, buy or even use firearms, according to internal documents and communications…
    It is unclear what exact criteria the FBI used to identify signatories, but some forms include bureau notes detailing ongoing investigations. Many signatories allegedly made violent threats in online chat rooms, in person and on social media platforms, FBI notes show…https://t.co/W5BWaiMzmE
 
Judge’s order exposes FBI sloppiness, excessive evidence collection at Trump home – Court also acknowledges Joe Biden helped initiate criminal probe of his chief Republican rival, alarming many.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/judges-order-reveals-fbi-sloppiness-excessive-evidence-collection
 
@washingtonpost: FBI seized material at Mar-a-Lago on a foreign nation’s military defenses, including its nuclear capabilities, people familiar say
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/06/trump-nuclear-documents/
 
It is a crime (unless one has proper clearance) to possess secret info.  It is a crime to leak top-secret info. If the seized nuclear info is so sensitive, why did the FBI or DoJ leak it to the dolts at the WaPo?
 
@ProfMJCleveland: Supposedly top-secret docs resided unknown in Mar-a-Lago for 18 months & no one is aware of them or what they say. FBI has them 18 days & suddenly they & their contents splashed across front page of @wapo. Is real national security threat in West Palm Beach, FL or Quantico, VA?
 
@MZHemingway: As they have for six years now, federal law enforcement out with yet another illegal leak to their propaganda arm. Could also be seen as a cleanup attempt of their previous illegal leak that fizzled out about US nuclear codes or whatever.
 
@redsteeze: How can a source go to wash post saying “Here I am making public the sensitive classified material Trump had and wasn’t unauthorized to keep himself and oh yeah I also don’t have that clearance.” Unless they do. Which would be, interesting, after Garland’s statement.
 
@realJoelFischer: The FBI came to Mar a Lago in June, checked everything and confirm that everything is OK. All they asked was an extra lock on the basement door. Now they claim they found Highly classified material. PLANTED???  FBI: Classified docs not safe w Trump…FBI: Let’s leak it to WaPo.
 
Russian commanders in Kherson face mutiny as entire regiment refuses to fight due to lack of supplies and no pay https://t.co/tlfhLQVZX8
 
Surprise. “McConnell Remains Silent on Biden’s Speech Attacking MAGA Movement” https://t.co/PKSYHnCYGi
 
@AndrewDesiderio: McConnell staying quiet on Trump/Mar-a-Lago: “I’m not personally talking to the other Gang of 8 [members] about this,” he says. “I don’t really have any comment on this whole investigation that’s been dominating the news for the last month. We’re following it like all of you are”
 
Hillary Clinton blasted for ‘astonishingly false’ Twitter thread claiming she had ‘zero’ classified emails – A 2018 DOJ report found that Clinton had 193 classified emails on her private server
https://www.foxnews.com/media/hillary-clinton-blasted-astonishingly-false-twitter-thread-claiming-she-had-zero-classified-emails
 
Ex-liberal icon @ggreenwald: The regime of censorship being imposed on the internet – by a consortium of DC Dems, billionaire-funded “disinformation experts,” the US Security State, and liberal employees of media corporations – is dangerously intensifying in ways I believe are not adequately understood… The authoritarian mentality that led CIA, corporate media and Big Tech to lie about the Biden archive before the election is the same driving this new censorship craze. It’s the hallmark of all tyranny: “our enemies are so evil and dangerous, anything is justified to stop them.” (Long thread at link)
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1567293952054665218?s=02
 
@RNCResearch: ABSENTEE PRESIDENT: On average, Joe Biden spends 41% of each month on vacation. (68% of August, chart at link)  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1567269512596144128
 
@kylenabecker: NY Gov. Kathy Hochul has dropped the public transit mask mandate. Face coverings are no longer required to ride mass transit after nearly two-and-a-half-years. (Her poll #s have been falling.)
 
From 1933 until 1995, Dems control the US House except for two 2-year terms.  Since then, the GOP has controlled the House in 10 of the 14 Congresses.  This is a root reason that US politics has become toxic.
https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/

 

Greg Hunter..

EU Imploding, Pro-Biden Psyop Continues, CV19 Killer Clots

By Greg Hunter On September 9, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups17 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 546 9.9.22)

You are not seeing this in the reporting, but Europe is imploding in every way possible.  The only thing that will stop this unfolding crash is to stop the Ukraine war–and stop it now.  There are no signs this is going to happen.  There are plenty of signs that Europe’s coming monstrous crash will drag the globe into the Greatest Depression in history.  Inflation is skyrocketing, and the European Central Bank is coming to the rescue by raising interest rates .75%!!!  Talk about throwing a drowning man a boat anchor, that’s what raising interest rates is.

The pro-Biden psyop is in full swing, and it needs to be because the real numbers of his approval rating are around 12%.  I said the real numbers, not the fake polling that shows Biden surging as inflation continues to roar.  It makes no sense that Biden’s official approval rating, according to the propaganda media, was 42% last month, and now, he’s beating Trump in a 2024 matchup by 6 points.  48% for Biden and only 42% for Trump.  August 21, 2022, NBC News slipped up and showed a poll where 74% of Americans said the “country was on the wrong track.”  Fake news and fake polls abound in the pro-Biden psyop.  The real approval number, according to Martin Armstrong, is 12%.  Let that sink in, and that will explain a lot.

We are just getting started with the deadly and debilitating effects of the CV19 bioweapon injections.  We have children getting heart disease and people dropping dead because of the experimental shots.  Now, more and more people are experience long blood clots being pulled from their veins.  An Ohio junior in high school was the latest victim to have a 6-foot blood clot pulled from his leg.  His football career is over, but will his life be cut short too?  Doctors say they are “baffled,” but are they just covering up to keep their jobs?  This is too stupid to be stupid.  When are doctors going to stand up and say stop the shots.  It’s killing and maiming people in very large numbers.  It’s going to get much worse, and that is the science and not the political science or the science fiction surrounding the Big LIE of the CV19 “vaccines.”

There is much more in the 50-min. newscast.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 9.9.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/eu-imploding-pro-biden-psyop-continues-cv19-killer-clots

After the Wrap-Up:

Biblical time analyst Bo Polny of Gold2020Forecast.com will be the guest for the Saturday Evening Post.  He has new information about big events coming in September and beyond.  You can expect in the not-so-distant future a “Biden Crash” that will be affecting everyone in America.  Polny goes into deep detail on Saturday.

See you MONDAY

Harvey

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