SEPT 13/GOLD DOWN $22.85 TO $1706.90//SILVER DOWN ONLY 31 CENTS TO $19.54//PLATINUM DOWN $13.16 TO $893.69//PALLADIUM DOWN $135.10 TO $2153.70//COVID UPDATES: NEW ZEALAND REMOVES ALL VACCINE MANDATES//USA REPORTS RED HOT CPI AT .1% M/M AND .6% CORE M/M WHICH IN TURN CAUSES MELTDOWN IN STOCK MARKETS AND GOLD/SILVER//TYPHOON HEADING STRAIGHT FOR SHANGHAI//EUROPE/ENERGY REPORTS: GERMANY’S ENERGY GRID INTO TOTAL DISARRAY//AZERBAIJAN ATTACKS ARMENIA WITH ARMENIA ASKING RUSSIA FOR HELP/UKRAINE WINNING BACK SOME LOST TERRITORY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE WAR IS NOW IN A COMPLETE STALEMATE//USA DOLLAR OUTLOOK: A MUST READ (MACDONALD/HARNETT)//USA RAIL STIKE LOOMS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1706.90 DOWN $22.85 

SILVER: $19.54 DOWN $0.31 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1702.30

SILVER: $19.35

Bitcoin morning price:  $22,552 UP 146

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,208 DOWN 2198

Platinum price closing DOWN $13.16 AT $893.69

Palladium price; closing DOWN $135.10  at $2133.70

END

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COMEX

  EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,728.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/12/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/14/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


132 C SG AMERICAS 2
661 C JP MORGAN 4
690 C ABN AMRO 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 5


TOTAL: 7 7
MONTH TO DATE: 3,889


JPMorgan stopped:   4/7

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  

7 NOTICES FOR 700 OZ //0.0217 TONNES

total notices so far: 3889 contracts for 388,900 oz (12.096 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 129 NOTICES FILED FOR 645,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  6384 :  for 31,520,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.31

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 465.899 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A GIGANTIC SIZED 1837  CONTRACTS TO 136,700.   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $1.04 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.04) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 392 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,; HOWEVER WE HAD HUGE  SPECULATOR LIQUIDATION.(SHORT COVERING)

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE/  SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 630,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//STRONG SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -119

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 8 days, total 9132  contracts:  45.166 million oz  OR 5.639 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1141 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 45.166  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 45.166 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1837 DESPITE OUR  $1.04 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 2110 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS A// HUGE SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 630,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 273 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 1.365MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 129  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  645,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 817 CONTRACTS  TO 465,639 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:+36  CONTRACTS.

.

THE SMALL SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $12.30//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND /SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 4300 OZ //NEW STANDING 13.6889 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF  $12.30 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 1216  OI CONTRACTS 3.894 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1215  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 465,639

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1252 CONTRACTS  WITH 817 CONTRACTS  INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 435 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1252 CONTRACTS OR 3.894 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (435) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (817): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1252 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 4,300 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

15,849 CONTRACTS OR 1,584,900 OZ OR 49.29 TONNES 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1981 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 49.29 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  49.29/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.38% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 49.29 TONNES (MUCH LESS ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,FELL FAIR BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1837 CONTRACT OI TO 136,700 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 2110 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 2110  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2110 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1837  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2110  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 273  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.365 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GOOD GAIN IN PRICE OF  $1.04

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.74 PTS OR .05%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 35.39 PTS OR .18%    /The Nikkei closed UP 72.52 OR 0.25%.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.63%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.9257//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.9264//    /Oil UP TO 89.10  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 95.36    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING AOBVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 817 CONTRACTS TO 465,639 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS TINY COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $12.30  IN GOLD PRICING  MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (435 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 435 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :435 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  435 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 1252  CONTRACTS IN THAT 435 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 817  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $12.30.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT   (13.698),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  13.698 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $12,30) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1252 CONTRACTS //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS COVERED SOME OF  THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED GAIN  OF 3.894 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (13.698 TONNES)

WE HAD +34  CONTRACTS ADDED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1196 CONTRACTS OR 119600  OZ OR 3.720 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 241,696///  fair/

final gold volumes/yesterday  163,312/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 13

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz24,434.622 oz


Brinks 
Loomis
Manfra
 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 14,230,170 oz
Malca
No of oz served (contracts) today7   notice(s)
700  OZ
0.0217 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)515 contracts 
51500 oz
1.6018TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month3889 notices
388,900 OZ
12.096 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

i) Into Malca: 14,230.170 oz

total deposits 14,230.170 oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks 16,589.910 oz

ii) Out of Loomis:  6430.200 oz (200 kilobars)

iii) Out of Manfra: 1414.512 oz  (44 kilobars)

total:  24,434.622 oz   

total in tonnes: 0.76 tonnes

Adjustments: 2  Brinks: 

 96,453.10 oz dealer to customer

and JPMorgan  42,342.84 oz  dealer to customer

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an  oi of 522 contracts having LOST 45 contracts .

We had 91 notices filed on MONDAY so we  gained  46 contracts or an additional 4600 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.

October GAINED 156 contracts UP to 42,276 

November LOST 18 contracts to stand at 60

December GAINED 224 contracts UP to 379.021.

We had 7 notice(s) filed today for 700 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 7 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3889) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT 522 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 7 x 100 oz per contract equals 440,400 OZ  OR 13.698 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON  active month of SEPT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3889) x 100 oz+   (522)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (7} x 100 oz} which equals 440,400 oz standing OR 13.698 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  13.698 TONNES  (A GREAT STANDING FOR A SEPT (   NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,414,231.831 oz   75.092 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  27,218,150.643 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,410,094.117  OZ (417.11 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,808,086.576 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,995.863. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 342.01 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 13

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory2,111,737.141oz

BRINKS
Int. Delaware
Loomis
JPMorgan
Manfra








 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory nil oz




 
No of oz served today (contracts)129 CONTRACT(S)
645,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)158 contracts 
(775,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)6304 contracts
 31,520,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  0  deposits into the customer account

total deposit:  nil   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 167.857 million oz/322.135million =52.09% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 5

i) Out of Int. Delaware 38,790.930 oz

ii) Out of CNT:  715,104.400 oz

iii) Out of Loomis:  120,140.571 oz

iv) Out of jPMorgan: 622,861.330 oz

v) Out of Manfra 614,839.810 oz

total: 2,111,737.141    oz

 adjustments: 2

i) customer to dealer: Delaware 76,894.712 oz

ii) dealer to customer Manfra 121,098.88oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 45.946 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 322.135 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 284 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 107 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

19 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED A WHOPPING  126 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

630,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER LOST 116 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 535 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED 6 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 32

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 2516 CONTRACTS UP TO 122,778

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 129 for  645,000 oz

Comex volumes:74,106// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 86,127 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  6304 x 5,000 oz = 31,520,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(284) and the number of notices served upon today 129  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,304 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (284)  – number of notices served upon today (129) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 32,295,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 45.946 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 32.295 MILLION OZ represents 70.28% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:49,341// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 51,749 contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

  AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES  

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 964.91 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER  UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

  AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//  

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 465.899 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Queen Elizabeth’s Death Puts Squeeze On Already Tight Bullion Coin Market

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The recent death of Queen Elizabeth II is squeezing gold and silver bullion coin markets that were already strained by tight supplies.

There was an immediate and dramatic surge in demand for gold and silver bullion coins bearing the queen’s effigy upon her passing. According to News.com.au in Australia, “Collectors are scrambling to get their hands on coins with Queen Elizabeth’s face as prices skyrocket after her death.”

The owner of a Melbourne coin shop called the demand for coins with the queen’s likeness “insane.”

“Collectors are frenzied, and post-market prices are soaring,” he said, adding that business increased five-fold in the days after the queen’s death.

On Sunday morning, there was a wait to access the British Royal Mint website. Visitors were greeted with a message apologizing for “a particularly high volume of traffic.”

While the Melbourne coin shop owner couldn’t put an exact figure on the future value of coins with the queen’s image, he told News.com.au that demand for the first and last issues under any particular monarch would be constant. “The 2022 official set of coins, for instance, was totally sold out on my site yesterday,” he said.

The spike in demand could spill over into the broader bullion market that is already dealing with tight supply, causing spot prices to rise.

The silver bullion market has been hit particularly hard by supply problems. In March, the US Mint suspended production of Morgan and Peace Silver Dollars for the rest of the year. According to a press release, the “calculated pause is directly related to the global pandemic’s impact upon the availability of silver blanks from the Mint’s suppliers.”

The Royal Mint, the Perth Mint in Australia, and the Royal Canadian Mint will begin phasing out the production of coins featuring the queen’s effigy and replace them with coins bearing the image of King Charles III. This includes the Canadian Maple Leaf, the British Brittania, and the Australian Kangaroo coins. The logistics of this transition have not been announced, although it doesn’t appear there will be any immediate stoppage in coin production.

In a statement on its website, the Royal Mint said, “As we respect this period of respectful mourning, we continue to strike coins as usual.”

The Royal Canadian Mint had a bit more detailed statement on the transition.

The Royal Canadian Mint wishes to remind consumers and businesses that the royal succession has no impact on coins currently in circulation. A change in Monarch does not require the replacement of circulation coins. Therefore, Canadian consumers and businesses can continue using all coins currently in circulation. We are working on a plan to issue a variety of coins commemorating Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II’s lifetime of service as Queen of Canada. The Mint will also support the Government of Canada as it works to determine a new obverse (heads) design for future Canadian coins.”

Even if the production of coins continues as normal for the time being, it remains unclear whether the transition to new coins featuring King Charles III will result in any production delays or limit the availability of new coins. A supplier for SchiffGold wrote, “Nobody is exactly sure what that’s going to look like yet but it seems to be pushing markets up on all coins with the queen’s effigy.”

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

GOLD/SILVER

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Ed Steer’s weekend gold and silver letter is posted in the clear at SilverSeek

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-09-12 18:20Section: Daily Dispatches

6:20p ET Monday, September 12, 2022

The weekend letter from GATA board member Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest, headlined “Another Hugely Bullish Commitment of Traders Report, Especially in Silver,” has been posted in the clear at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:

https://silverseek.com/article/another-hugely-bullish-cot-reportespecially-silver

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Goldl Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Please support GATA as they are the only guys who are helping us

(Chris Powell)

When buying gold or silver, consider the dealers who support GATA

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-09-12 09:26Section: Daily Dispatches

9:23a ET Monday, September 12, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Being the only forms of money without counterparty risk, at least when held directly by their owners, gold and silver are often seen as the foundation of a sound investment portfolio. 

This principle was put into graphic format by the U.S. economist John Exter, who served as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s vice president in charge of international banking and precious metals operations, as well as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, long before suppressing the gold price became the Fed’s primary objective.

n Exter’s inverted pyramid of financial asset risk, gold is the ultimate asset, with all other assets posing greater risk to their owners:

But you can do more than protect yourself when you buy gold and the other monetary metal, silver. You can also help GATA fight the price suppression we long have been exposing, documenting, and sometimes litigating against:

https://gata.org/node/20925

That is you can buy metal from dealers who support GATA and have been recommended by our supporters over the years.

A list of those dealers is included with every GATA Dispatch and is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

https://gata.org/node/173

So please give them a chance to meet your investment needs.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Seems that Maduro has finally realized the value of gold:

(Reuters)

Venezuela pushes out small gold miners as Maduro seeks more revenue

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-09-13 01:15Section: Daily Dispatches

By Maria Ramirez and Mayela Armas
Reuters
Monday, September 12, 2022

EL CALLAO and CARACAS, Venezuela — In Venezuela’s El Callao mining region, countless small, artisanal miners who once sold gold to the government have left the area in the last year because accessible local supplies are depleted and President Nicolas Maduro has been striking deals with bigger miners, seeking more production and more revenue for the treasury.

Nationalizations in 2011 pushed out private miners and gold production stagnated. Now Maduro wants to ramp up production by building “strategic alliances” with select private companies, a dozen sources told Reuters. These partnerships are forcing out informal miners in places like El Callao, in the country’s south, businessmen, government officials, and miners said.

“They are looking to have more gold. It is what the state has always wanted,” said Alexis Chauran, director of an association of gold millers in La Ramona in eastern Venezuela, near the Brazilian border.

The government has granted 12 private companies permissions to build 30 processing plants, which use sophisticated equipment to extract gold-bearing sand from nearby mines, sources said. Most are already up and running. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/venezuela-pushes-out-small-gold-miners-maduro-seeks-more-revenue-2022-09-12/

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

-END-

.

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: RICE

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.9257

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9264

SHANGHAI CLOSED: UP 1.74 PTS OR .05%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 35.52 PTS OR .18%

2. Nikkei closed UP 72.52 PTS OR .25% 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  107.53/Euro RISES TO 1.0178

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.238/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 142.04/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.654%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.89% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.78%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.157//

3j Gold at $1730.30 silver at: 19.90  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 57/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 59.67//

3m oil into the 89 dollar handle for WTI and  95 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 142.04DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9497– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9667well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.308  DOWN 5  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.471 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,24

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Surge, Dollar Crumbles Ahead Of Pivotal CPI Print

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 07:58 AM

US futures extended their gains for fifth consecutive day – their longest winning streak since July – rising ahead of today’s “pivotal” CPI data.

Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 0.7% at 7:45 a.m. in New York ahead of the data that’s due at 8:30 a.m. The underlying gauges advanced Monday for a fourth straight day amid hopes that inflation will show further signs of cooling with the headline print actually declining for the first time in two years, before the Fed’s decision on interest rates next week. Treasury yields dipped while the Bloomberg dollar index extended its recent decline, sliding 0.3% to a two week low as traders bet that US inflation is near peaking, therefore challenging the dollar-dominance narrative, in the process pushing oil and bitcoin higher.

In premarket trading, tech giants including Apple and Microsoft climbed. Satellite-imaging company Planet Labs shares gained as much as 12% in US premarket session after raising full year forecasts for both revenue and adjusted gross margin. Oracle shares rose 1.9% as analysts are positive on the company’s 1Q top-line growth amid accelerating cloud revenue expansion. More bearish commentators, however, highlight a drop in operating margin as the integration of health records provider Cerner pushes up costs. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Rent the Runway (RENT US) shares slump 23% in premarket trading after reporting a drop in subscribers in the second-quarter and announcing a restructuring of the company.
  • Dow (DOW US) shares declined 0.7% in premarket trading as Jefferies downgraded the stock to hold, saying that it is likely to be range-bound in the near term, with downside risk as rising interest rates further hit customer confidence.
  • Peloton (PTON US) shares may be in focus as Citi analysts say that the departure of the company’s founders, including Executive Chairman John Foley, completes the organizational changes at Peloton and should improve its free cash flow picture.
  • Keep an eye on Innovid (CTV US) shares as Morgan Stanley initiates coverage with an underweight rating, saying that the company has good positioning in connected TV, but the stock appears to be “more than fully valued”.

Previewing the CPI (our full preview here), UBS chief economist Paul Donovan writes that while US August consumer price inflation is due “Consumer prices do not measure the cost of living. Fantasy numbers in US CPI calculation further divorce this price measure from the cost of living. However, the Fed’s June policy error elevated the importance of consumer price inflation. Disinflation and deflation in durable goods, the longest period of gasoline price deflation for years, and some evidence of squeezing profit margins all suggest a lower reading.”

“It’s way to early to expect the Fed to react to the fact that we’re past peak inflation,” Nannette Hechler-Fayd’Herbe, chief investment officer at Credit Suisse International Wealth Management, told Bloomberg TV. “When you look at S&P 500 we have seen very big support levels from a technical point of view, so I can very well envisage that volatility takes us down to these levels once the market finally realizes the Fed will not cut rates as early as 2023.”

The government’s report is expected to show that consumer inflation increased 8.1% in August from the same month last year, down from 8.5% in July yet still historically elevated. The figures aren’t likely to sway the Fed’s September decision, with traders almost fully expecting another 75-basis-point increase next week, taking their cue from officials supporting that view. Still, solid signs of peaking inflation can affect the US central bank’s policy in later meetings.

“With a lot of US policymakers calling for a front-loading approach, the odds appear to favor a 75 basis-point move if markets are to be convinced the US central bank is serious about driving inflation lower on a ‘sustainable basis’,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. That “means today’s inflation numbers may not be terribly instructive.”

Meanwhile, JPMorgan permabullish strategists Marko Kolanovic and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said a soft landing is becoming the more likely scenario for the global economy, which will continue to provide tailwinds for risky assets. As a reminder, Marko has said to buy the dip pretty much every single week in 2022. Recent data pointing to moderating inflation and wage pressures, rebounding growth and stabilizing consumer confidence suggest the world will avoid a recession, they said. Not confirming their optimism,  a Bank of America survey showed investors are fleeing equities en masse amid the specter of a recession, with allocations to stocks at record lows and cash exposure at all-time highs.

“The fact is that two consecutive reports showing a sharp deceleration combined with last month’s goldilocks jobs report will be a really encouraging sign and could trigger a broader risk rebound in the markets,” said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at Oanda Europe Ltd. “It may not be enough to tip the Fed balance in favor of a more modest 50 basis point rate hike next week but it may slow the pace of tightening thereafter.”

In Europe, corporate news helped buoy the Stoxx Europe 600 index, with UBS Group AG rising after raising its dividend and share-buyback target, and Bayer AG jumping more than 2% after starting the search for a new chief executive. Retailers and grocers pared some of their recent rally after Ocado Group Plc said inflation and energy costs will weigh on profit. The FTSE MIB outperformed peers, adding 0.3%. Utilities, consumer products and miners are the strongest performing sectors. 

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks extended their recent rally as several markets returned from holidays, and as traders awaited a key US inflation data release due later Tuesday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.7%, poised for a fourth-straight day of gains, driven by technology shares. South Korean stocks led advances among regional benchmarks in a catch-up rally following a four-day weekend. The US CPI report is expected to show a mixed picture, hinting that inflation may have peaked but remained elevated. This could provide more clues to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision next week, with traders currently expecting another 75-basis-point increase.

“Further pushback from the Fed could be likely but for now, with the Fed blackout period in place, market bulls may be hoping to see underperformance in the upcoming inflation data,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte, wrote in a note. How to trade dollar, bonds or equities ahead of the Fed decision? This week’s MLIV Pulse survey asks about the best trades going into the FOMC meeting. Please click here to share your views anonymously. Chinese equities edged higher as traders returned from a holiday. President Xi Jinping plans to travel to Central Asia this week in what would be his first trip abroad since the Covid pandemic began. Shares in Hong Kong fell.

Japanese equities rose for a fourth day, driven by optimism that inflation is close to the peak as investors await US CPI data to be announced late Tuesday.  The Topix Index rose 0.3% to 1,986.57 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.3% to 28,614.63. Nintendo Co. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 5.5%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 1,126 rose and 903 fell, while 140 were unchanged. “Consumer surveys released by the New York Fed show that inflation expectations have receded, supporting stock prices to some extent,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to close at 7,009.70, boosted by gains in banks and mining shares. The benchmark reached the highest level since Aug. 26.  Ramsay Health Care tumbled more than 10% after a consortium led by KKR & Co. indicated it won’t improve the terms of a takeover proposal, indicating the end of a A$20.1 billion ($14 billion) pursuit. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.4% to 11,762.15

Key equity gauges in India advanced for fourth consecutive session to edge closer to peaks seen in October as shares in the heavily weighted finance sector rebound following the resumption of inflows from foreigners. The S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.8% to 60,571.08 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index rose by a similar measure. Both gauges are less than 3% short of their record highs after climbing more than 14% since the end of June. The rally in stocks comes despite surging consumer prices in the country. Retail inflation accelerated to 7% in August, slightly above the consensus estimate, data released Monday evening showed. Foreign investors have net bought more than $8 billion of local equities since end of June, with a large proportion going into shares of financial firms.  “The current market buoyancy globally, including in India, is based on the expectation that inflation has peaked along with softening crude prices,” said Naveen Kulkarni, chief investment officer of Axis Securities’ PMS business. With the onset of winter, investors should watch energy prices in Europe and the US, which can re-ignite inflation, he added.  HDFC Bank Ltd contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 1.3%. Out of 30 shares in the benchmark index, 24 rose and 6 fell.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended its recent losses, and after hitting an all time high at the start of the month, fell to a two-week low as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Norwegian krone. CAD and NZD were the weakest performers in G-10 FX, SEK and JPY outperform.

  • The euro rose a third day, to touch a day high of 1.0155 versus the greenback. European bonds traded mostly lower. German yields rose up to 4bps as they underperformed Italian bonds and with both countries tapping the market today
  • The Norwegian krone posted a small drop versus the euro after a key survey of business sentiment by Norges Bank showed that the economy faces worsening prospects amid a “sharp” rise in prices.
  • The yen reversed an Asia-session loss while the Australian and New Zealand dollars swung between modest gains and losses

In fixed income, Treasuries held gains into early US session, having pared most of Monday afternoon’s slide that followed weak 10-year note auction. US yields are richer by 4bp-5bp across the curve; the long-end lags, steepening 5s30s by about 1bp. The 10-year yield eased 4bps to near 3.31%. Bunds 10-year yield is up 1bp to around 1.66% and gilts 10-year yield is little changed. Treasuries outperform bunds and gilts as stock futures reach highest levels this month. The US auction cycle concludes with $18b 30-year bond reopening at 1pm. WI 30-year yield around 3.475% is above auction stops since 2014 and ~37bp cheaper than August’s, which tailed by 1.1bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; Monday saw eight borrowers price $11.7b; activity expected to be lighter Tuesday with focus on August inflation data. Focal points of US session include CPI inflation and 30-year bond auction; Monday’s 3-year sale also tailed.  

In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer intraday as a function of the receding Dollar, but traders are wary of short-term upward moves as China continues with strings of lockdowns. WTI trades within Monday’s range, adding 1.1% to near $88.71. Spot gold trades on either side of the flat mark in the run-up to US CPI, under its 50 and 21 DMAs at 1,740.82/oz and USD 1,731.05/oz respectively. Base metals are mostly firmer amid the weaker Buck and upside across stocks.

Bitcoin trades on either side of USD 22,500, whilst Ethereum pulled back after reaching levels close to 1,800.

Looking to the day ahead, along with August CPI in the US, American data will include NFIB Small Business optimism (came in at 91.8, higher than the 90.8 expeected) and average hourly earnings, German and Eurozone ZEW survey results, UK August jobless claims, July average weekly earnings, and unemployment rate, Japanese August PPI, and Italian 2Q unemployment rate.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,129.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 429.10
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 156.38
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 513.28
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 28,614.63
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,986.57
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 19,326.86
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,263.80
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 60,577.61
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,009.69
  • Kospi up 2.7% to 2,449.54
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,723.41
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.22% to 108.09
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.67%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.0140

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Pacific Investment Management Co. is advocating a radical solution to fix the liquidity woes plaguing the world of bonds: The entire $23.7 trillion Treasury market should move to a model where investors can transact directly with each other — reducing their unhealthy dependence on balance-sheet-constrained banks
  • The euro is up by almost 3% from two-decade lows hit a week ago against the dollar, and option markets suggest the rally has more room to run. The bet is that US consumer price data due later Tuesday will show inflation is near peaking, therefore challenging the dollar-dominance narrative. That view is behind the greenback’s recent retreat versus its major peers
  • Germany is set to use a fund created to help companies cope with the economic hit from the pandemic to provide loan guarantees for struggling energy firms, according to a person familiar with the plan. The volume of loan guarantees available would be around 67 billion euros ($68 billion)
  • China’s Premier Li Keqiang called for more policies to drive up consumption in the economy as latest figures show a further plunge in travel and spending over a three-day public holiday amid tight Covid controls
  • For the better part of a decade, a US hedge-fund manager who has never even set foot in China has been patiently betting that the yuan will stage a massive collapse, one so deep that its value could be cut in half
  • It’s not a common sight for euro overnight volatility to trade above 20% on non-central bank decision days. Yet this is what investors face this morning as everyone is on the lookout for the release of the US inflation report
  • Britain’s unemployment rate fell to the lowest since 1974 as more people dropped out of the workforce, fanning upward pressure on wages. The government said 3.6% of adults were out of work and looking for jobs in the three months through July, lower than the 3.8% pace in the previous months. Economists had expected no change
  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it was ‘unlikely’ the US and Iran would reach a new nuclear deal anytime soon, adding to Western officials’ downbeat assessment over the prospects for reviving an accord that President Donald Trump abandoned in 2018
  • Japan has more firepower in its foreign exchange reserves than it did the last time it intervened in markets to support its currency, though a unilateral move is seen as unlikely to succeed without US support

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded positive after the advances in global peers including on Wall St. where sentiment was helped by slowing inflation expectations, although gains were capped ahead of US CPI data and amid further China COVID woes. ASX 200 reclaimed the 7,000 level with advances led by the commodity-related sectors and with the risk tone also helped by an improvement in business and consumer sentiment data. Nikkei 225 marginally gained amid hopes of further supportive measures with Japan to potentially implement a nationwide travel incentive this month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were slightly firmer but with upside contained after fresh COVID restrictions including in Sanhe near Beijing and with Shijiazhuang city in Hebei also locking down a district due to coronavirus.

Top Asian News

  • Emmys for Netflix’s Squid Game Boost ‘K-Drama’ Stocks in Seoul
  • Fosun Chief Says Many Overseas Units Resilient Amid Pandemic
  • Holders of Fosun’s 2b Yuan Bond Request Early Repayment in Full
  • Netflix’s Megahit ‘Squid Game’ Wins Top Emmy Awards
  • Woodford Administrator Faces Possible £306 Million Hit, UK Says

European bourses tread water with modest gains following a relatively mixed APAC lead. European sectors are mostly higher with no overarching theme or bias. Stateside, futures are edging higher in early European trade with a broad-based performance seen across the ES, NQ, YM, and RTY.

Top European News

  • UK Chancellor Kwarteng told Treasury officials to adapt to a new approach focused on boosting GDP to 2.5%, the long-term average pre-GFC, ahead of the mini-Budget announcement next week which includes tax cuts and increased borrowing, according to FT.
  • UK and EU are reportedly seeking to avoid a September 15th legal deadline over ‘grace periods’ becoming a flashpoint in talks, according to officials from both sides cited by the FT.
  • The EU is delaying plans to cut the use of pesticides amid food production fears and subsequent price increases as a result, according to the FT.
  • UK’s Felixstowe port has received notice from union of further strike action from 27th Sept to 5th Oct; collective bargaining process has been exhausted – no prospect of an agreement being reached with union.
  • EU Commission President is to call another energy meeting by end-September, according to the Spanish Energy Minister, according Reuters.
  • German Economy Ministry report says early indicators and polls point to a rising number of insolvencies in H2, but there is no ‘insolvency wave’ in sight, via Reuters.
  • EU is reportedly mulling a EUR 180-200 price cap from lower-cost sources (vs guided EUR 200); eyes taking 33% of extra profits from fossil fuel companies, according to Bloomberg sources.
  • Ocado Plummets as Shoppers Cut Back and Energy Costs Bite
  • Mercedes-Benz Wins Dismissal of German Climate Lawsuit
  • Some 17 Million in Europe Got Long Covid in First Pandemic Years

FX

  • DXY is softer and trades on either side of 108.00, ahead of yesterday’s 107.80 low and the 50 DMA at 107.52.
  • EUR/USD faded at 1.0160 with decent option expiry interest between 1.0170-80 (1.21bn).
  • The JPY continued its correction to almost 142.00 against the Greenback, irrespective of mixed Japanese PPI prints.

Fixed Income

  • Choppy and divergent price action in debt futures as EZ bonds digest decent auction results from Germany and Italy.
  • Gilts regroup after underperformance on the back of better than expected UK data.
  • Bunds are holding above 144.00 having fallen to a marginal new Eurex low at 143.86
  • US Treasuries are firmer across the board pre-US CPI, irrespective of Monday’s poorly received 3 and 10 year offerings.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are firmer intraday as a function of the receding Dollar, but traders are wary of short-term upward moves as China continues with strings of lockdowns.
  • Spot gold trades on either side of the flat mark in the run-up to US CPI, under its 50 and 21 DMAs at 1,740.82/oz and USD 1,731.05/oz respectively
  • Base metals are mostly firmer amid the weaker Buck and upside across stocks.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin trades on either side of USD 22,500, whilst Ethereum pulled back after reaching levels close to 1,800.

US Event Calendar

  • 06:00: Aug. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, 91.8, est. 90.8, prior 89.9
  • 08:30: Aug. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -3.0%
  • 08:30: Aug. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 08:30: Aug. CPI Core Index SA, est. 296.250, prior 295.275
  • 08:30: Aug. CPI Index NSA, est. 295.588, prior 296.276
  • 08:30: Aug. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 6.1%, prior 5.9%
  • 08:30: Aug. CPI YoY, est. 8.1%, prior 8.5%
  • 08:30: Aug. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -3.6%
  • 08:30: Aug. CPI MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0%
  • 14:00: Aug. Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$217b, prior -$170.6b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s that time again. US CPI will clearly be the major focus today and could shape next week’s FOMC and the rest of the month’s trading. Or, of course, it could be a damp squib but I’m sure they’ll be something in it to move markets.

Our economists are expecting a slight decline in the headline number, (-0.09% MoM) but for core to pick up (+0.30%). On a YoY basis, headline CPI should fall five-tenths to 8.0% while core should increase a tenth to 6.0%. With the market pricing a near certainty of a 75bp move next week (now at 73.4bps), that profile above won’t be enough to meaningfully reduce chances of a 75bp hike, and markets will turn to this Friday’s inflation expectations data as the last hurdle to clear before the Fed delivers (barring any late breaking news stories to the contrary). On that front, the New York Fed’s 3-year inflation expectations measure fell to its lowest level in 2 years yesterday, clocking in at 2.8% in August from 3.2% in July. For context, it’s retreated from a high of 4.2% in October of last year. Uncertainty remains near record highs, though, which will continue to give policymakers pause even as the 75th and 25th percentile of survey responses have also fallen.

Ahead of CPI, the S&P 500 rallied (+1.06% and a 5-day rally for the first time since late-January/early-February) alongside the global risk complex, led by energy and big tech stocks, with the NASDAQ outperforming, up +1.27%. Apple (+3.85%) led the way in the first full trading day since their new iPhone went on sale on Friday. Orders have been strong so far. I upgrade every year but this time I decided not to…. until one minute before the virtual shop opened for the new products. As with every year I got seduced.

While European sovereign curves rallied and flattened, the Treasury curve steepened, and yields climbed ahead of today’s inflation data. 2yr yields climbed +1.5bps while 10yr yields were +4.8bps higher, but some +9.8bps higher than their lunchtime lows. Much of that was after the Europe close as 10yr Bunds and BTP rallied -4.4bps and -5.7bps, respectively. One theory for the US yield sell-off was the fact that yesterday brought the first batch of US Treasury coupon auctions since the Fed doubled the size of their monthly QT runoff, with yields marching higher after both the 3yr and 10yr auction, as the market has to absorb additional collateral. There’s been a partial pullback in Asia this morning with yields on 10yr USTs down -2.12bps to 3.34%.

The initial risk appetite yesterday was led by Europe, as most of the early focus was on the news we discussed 24 hours ago, namely Ukraine’s successful counter-offensive operation over the weekend. Risk sentiment enjoyed a boost, with the Euro also having its best day against the US dollar in a month, appreciating +0.80%. The wider implications of this success are still up for debate though. In particular, it seems like this pushes out the timeline on any potential peace talks, as Ukraine will be emboldened to double down on their red lines. In that vein, the Kremlin said yesterday there were no prospects for talks at the moment. On the downside, this potentially raises the spectre of escalation as well, whether it’s on the battlefield via unconventional weapons or a mass mobilisation from Russia, or on the economic front with Russia applying more pressure through natural gas markets through the remaining pipeline to Europe. European natural gas futures were trading in line with the broader risk sentiment yesterday though, rather than on potential tail risk scenarios, falling another -8.0%, closing below EUR 200 for the first time in a month. We peaked at EUR 342 eleven days ago, so down -44.23% since then. As hinted, European equities rallied strongly, with the STOXX 600 climbing +1.76%, the DAX +2.40% higher, and the CAC increasing +1.95%.

Sticking with the theme of the war and energy, a draft EU proposal, to be officially unveiled this week, included mandatory power cut targets, bringing the bloc closer to rationing. The draft also includes a levy on extra profits at energy producers used to fund relief to consumers. These are still merely draft proposals, which would ultimately need member state buy-in to be implemented, so the negotiation process may wind up watering down the proposal. Nevertheless, as mentioned, natural gas futures fell on the news, with German and French power prices also falling -8.10% and -3.60%, respectively.

The UK’s own energy support plan that we’ve recently covered is due to take effect come October. Whilst US CPI out later today will gain the lion’s share of attention over the near term, the UK has its own CPI print out tomorrow, as well. Our economists are expecting headline inflation to stay put at 10.1% yoy and core to increase to 6.4% yoy. With the new Energy Price Guarantee program in place, they’re lowering their peak forecast for CPI from 14% to 10.5%.

Asian equity markets are firmly in the green while extending a global rally this morning on optimism that inflation is peaking. Across the region, the Kospi (+2.56%) is leading gains with the CSI (+0.70%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.33%) and the Hang Seng (+0.44%) catching up after reopening following a public holiday. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.16%) is trading in positive territory in early trade.

In overnight trading, US stock futures are pointing to slightly higher with the S&P 500 (+0.11%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.10%).

Early morning data indicated that pipeline prices in Japan appear to have stabilised as factory gate inflation (+9.0% y/y) in August remained unchanged (vs +9.4% in June), albeit a tenth above expectations. Looking at the data, the decline in global oil prices seems to have led the way despite the weakening in the Japanese yen.

Oil prices are slightly lower in early Asian trade with Brent crude futures -0.18% at $93.83/bbl as China’s harsh zero-Covid policy continues to negatively impact the demand from the world’s top oil importer.

To the day ahead, along with August CPI in the US, American data will include NFIB Small Business optimism and average hourly earnings, German and Eurozone ZEW survey results, UK August jobless claims, July average weekly earnings, and unemployment rate, Japanese August PPI, and Italian 2Q unemployment rate.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

European bourses tread water with modest gains, DXY trades on either side of 108 – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 06:21 AM

  • European bourses tread water with modest gains following a relatively mixed APAC lead; US futures post mild gains
  • DXY is softer and trades on either side of 108.00, EUR/USD faded at 1.0160, JPY continues its correction vs the USD
  • Choppy and divergent price action in debt futures as EZ bonds digest decent auction results from Germany and Italy
  • WTI and Brent are firmer intraday as a function of the receding Dollar, but traders are wary as China continues with lockdowns
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI and supply from the US

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk

Try a 14-day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

13th September 2022

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US CPI and supply from the US
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
  • Click here for the Newsquawk US CPI preview.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Ukraine Deputy Defence Minister says that fighting is continuing in the Kharkiv region and it is too early to say if Ukraine has restored full control over the region.

CHINA-TAIWAN

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to stack the country’s senior military leadership during next month’s Communist Party congress with loyalists aligned on his goal of unifying Taiwan and the mainland, according to Nikkei.

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN

  • Twitter sources reported fighting in the Kalbajar-Lachin border regions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, while Armenia’s Foreign Minister was said to have informed Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov about the situation resulting from Azerbaijan’s aggression. Furthermore, Tehran Times reported that Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry said a number of its forces were killed in an exchange of fire with Armenian forces.
  • Click here for Newsquawk analysis on the developments.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses tread water with modest gains following a relatively mixed APAC lead.
  • European sectors are mostly higher with no overarching theme or bias.
  • Stateside, futures are edging higher in early European trade with a broad-based performance seen across the ES, NQ, YM, and RTY.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY is softer and trades on either side of 108.00, ahead of yesterday’s 107.80 low and the 50 DMA at 107.52.
  • EUR/USD faded at 1.0160 with decent option expiry interest between 1.0170-80 (1.21bn).
  • The JPY continued its correction to almost 142.00 against the Greenback, irrespective of mixed Japanese PPI prints.
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Choppy and divergent price action in debt futures as EZ bonds digest decent auction results from Germany and Italy.
  • Gilts regroup after underperformance on the back of better than expected UK data.
  • Bunds are holding above 144.00 having fallen to a marginal new Eurex low at 143.86
  • US Treasuries are firmer across the board pre-US CPI, irrespective of Monday’s poorly received 3 and 10 year offerings.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent are firmer intraday as a function of the receding Dollar, but traders are wary of short-term upward moves as China continues with strings of lockdowns.
  • Spot gold trades on either side of the flat mark in the run-up to US CPI, under its 50 and 21 DMAs at 1,740.82/oz and USD 1,731.05/oz respectively
  • Base metals are mostly firmer amid the weaker Buck and upside across stocks.
  • Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin trades on either side of USD 22,500, whilst Ethereum pulled back after reaching levels close to 1,800.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • UK Chancellor Kwarteng told Treasury officials to adapt to a new approach focused on boosting GDP to 2.5%, the long-term average pre-GFC, ahead of the mini-Budget announcement next week which includes tax cuts and increased borrowing, according to FT.
  • UK and EU are reportedly seeking to avoid a September 15th legal deadline over ‘grace periods’ becoming a flashpoint in talks, according to officials from both sides cited by the FT.
  • The EU is delaying plans to cut the use of pesticides amid food production fears and subsequent price increases as a result, according to the FT.
  • UK’s Felixstowe port has received notice from union of further strike action from 27th Sept to 5th Oct; collective bargaining process has been exhausted – no prospect of an agreement being reached with union.
  • EU Commission President is to call another energy meeting by end-September, according to the Spanish Energy Minister, according Reuters.
  • German Economy Ministry report says early indicators and polls point to a rising number of insolvencies in H2, but there is no ‘insolvency wave’ in sight, via Reuters.
  • EU is reportedly mulling a EUR 180-200 price cap from lower-cost sources (vs guided EUR 200); eyes taking 33% of extra profits from fossil fuel companies, according to Bloomberg sources.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • UK Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Jul) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.7%)
  • UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.8%)
  • UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Aug) 71k (Prev. 73k)
  • EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Sep) -60.7 (Prev. -54.9)
  • German ZEW Current Conditions (Sep) -60.5 vs. Exp. -52.2 (Prev. -47.6)
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep) -61.9 vs. Exp. -60.0 (Prev. -55.3)

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks traded positive after the advances in global peers including on Wall St. where sentiment was helped by slowing inflation expectations, although gains were capped ahead of US CPI data and amid further China COVID woes.
  • ASX 200 reclaimed the 7,000 level with advances led by the commodity-related sectors and with the risk tone also helped by an improvement in business and consumer sentiment data.
  • Nikkei 225 marginally gained amid hopes of further supportive measures with Japan to potentially implement a nationwide travel incentive this month.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were slightly firmer but with upside contained after fresh COVID restrictions including in Sanhe near Beijing and with Shijiazhuang city in Hebei also locking down a district due to coronavirus.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8928 vs exp. 6.9080 (prev. 6.9098)
  • China’s city of Sanhe near Beijing is reportedly to be under lockdown for 4 days, while Shijiazhuang city in Hebei province locked down a district due to coronavirus.
  • China Securities Daily noted that analysts expect the PBoC to maintain the MLF rate.
  • Japan may implement a nationwide travel incentive this month, according to Kyodo.
  • China’s state planner says a second batch of pork reserves will be released this week, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Aug) 9.0% vs. Exp. 8.9% (Prev. 8.6%, Rev. 9.0%)
  • Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Aug) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.7%)
  • Japanese Business Survey Index* (Q3) 1.7% (Prev. -9.9%)
  • Australian NAB Business Confidence* (Aug) 10 (Prev. 7, Rev. 8)
  • Australian NAB Business Conditions* (Aug) 20 (Prev. 20, Rev. 19)
  • Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep) 84.4 (Prev. 81.2)

Source: Newsquawk

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.74 PTS OR .05%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 35.39 PTS OR .18%    /The Nikkei closed UP 72.52 OR 0.25%.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.63%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.9257//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.9264//    /Oil UP TO 89.10  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 95.36    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING AOBVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA/

This could be trouble: the typhoon is heading straight for Shanghai

(zerohedge)

Typhoon Barrels Towards Asia’s Largest Container Port

MONDAY, SEP 12, 2022 – 05:20 PM

Asia’s largest container-shipping port is in the crosshairs of another menacing typhoon with the risk of a direct hit by mid-week that could disrupt supply chains. 

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Typhoon Muifa will hit Shanghai and nearby Ningbo ports on China’s east coast late Wednesday into early Thursday. 

Currently, Muifa is located east of Taiwan and is headed northwest with maximum wind gusts of 115 mph. 

Last week, super Typhoon Hinnamnor passed by Shanghai, sending vessels out to sea to avoid damage. This storm is not as strong as Hinnamnor, but forecast models show a direct hit on the largest containerized ports in Asia could be a massive headache for China as an economic slump worsens due to zero-Covid policies shuttering multiple metro areas/industrial zones and a worsening property downturn

There’s also the risk the typhoon could disrupt containerized shipping to the US. 

END

CHINA

A good measure on how the Chinee economy is doing:  shipping.  Demand sinks across multiple cargo markets

(Freightwaves)

Shipping’s ‘China Syndrome’: Demand Sinks Across Multiple Cargo Markets

MONDAY, SEP 12, 2022 – 08:20 PM

By Greg Miller, of FreightWaves

In the mid-2000s, when shipping stocks first became popular on Wall Street, the shares were commonly bought as a play on China’s economy. China is pivotal to ocean shipping, whether it’s container ships, oil tankers, bulkers or gas carriers.

“There’s a saying that everything that moves out of China in containers has to come into China as raw materials,” noted Oeyvind Lindeman, chief commercial officer of Navigator Gas, on his company’s latest conference call. Ominously, signs of China’s weakening economy are showing up across all shipping sectors at once.

The glass-half-empty view is that pullbacks in shipping demand are bellwethers of more severe economic problems to come. The glass-half-full view is that declines are temporary. A rebound of Chinese demand for iron ore, oil and gas will eventually boost commodity shipping rates.

Container shipping

Sales of containerized goods to the U.S. and Europe supported the Chinese economy throughout the pandemic era. Markets were rattled Wednesday when China’s official monthly export stats came in much lighter than expected.

China’s exports rose 7.1% year on year (y/y) in August, well below the consensus forecast for 12.8% growth. Exports had grown 18% y/y in July. China’s exports to the U.S. declined 3.8% y/y in August, compared to an 11% increase in July.

Outbound volumes are being squeezed from both sides. Demand for Chinese goods is falling at the same time COVID-19 lockdowns and weather issues are constraining Chinese manufacturing and logistics.Index: January 2019 = 100 (Chart: FreightWaves SONAR)

The government has extended lockdowns in Chengdu and announced new nationwide precautions through the end of October. Analysts do not foresee any relaxation of China’s zero-COVID policy this year.  

Meanwhile, China recorded its highest temperatures and lowest rainfall in over six decades last month. Resultant power outages forced factory closures in Sichuan.

Dry bulk imports

China is the world’s largest producer of steel. Its steel production in January-July was down 6.1% y/y. Production in July fell 10% versus June.

“The decline in Chinese steel production has predominantly come from the ailing property sector and the stop-start industrial activity due to COVID-19 lockdowns,” wrote Mark Nugent, dry bulk analyst at shipbroker Braemar, in a research note on Thursday.

Brokerage EastGate Shipping said that the heatwave and power shortages forced 20 steel mills to go offline for around a week in mid-August.

Steel production drives Chinese demand for iron ore imports, largely from Australia and Brazil. These are the most important cargoes for Capesizes, larger bulkers with capacity of around 180,000 deadweight tons. Average Capesize spot rates collapsed from $38,200 in late May to just $5,600 per day on Friday, according to data from Clarksons Securities.

Brokerage BRS blamed the plunge on diversions of Australian iron ore from China to Southeast Asia, and more damaging to rates, a sharp decline in Chinese imports of long-haul Brazilian iron ore in August.

“Scorching temperatures and a relentless zero-COVID policy seriously crippled steel demand in China,” said BRS. It does not expect a full recovery of Chinese steel production until next spring, “casting doubts on a radical rebound in seaborne iron ore demand.”

Oil imports

China is by far the world’s largest importer of oil. Chinese imports are the most important driver for spot rates of larger 2-million-barrel-capacity tankers known as very large crude carriers.

According to Poten & Partners, Chinese crude imports grew rapidly from 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2009 to 10.1 million b/d in 2019. Growth slowed in 2020 when the pandemic hit and declined by 550,000 b/d in 2021.

Chinese imports sank to 8.7 million b/d in June, the lowest monthly average since July 2018. Imports were 8.8 million b/d in July and 9.5 million b/d in August. In the first eight months of this year, Chinese crude imports fell 5.2% versus the same period in 2021.

The International Energy Agency said in its latest outlook that China’s lockdowns “set back our projected demand recovery by two months.”

BRS noted that China has 920,000 b/d in new refinery capacity scheduled to come online by the end of the year. Normally, that would increase crude import demand. However, China’s refining capacity is already higher than domestic consumption and the government has not been pushing exports.

“Considering our relatively pessimistic short-term outlook for China, [with] COVID and lockdowns to remain a going concern until at least the beginning of next year, we expect little upside in Chinese runs as Beijing appears unwilling to permit its refiners to focus on export markets,” said BRS.

LPG shipping

China also is one of the world’s largest importers of liquefied petroleum gas (LNG): propane and butane. 

Beyond its use for energy, China imports propane as feedstock for propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants for the creation of propylene. The propylene is used to produce polypropylene, which is in turn used to manufacture plastic.

Tim Hansen, chief commercial officer of Dorian LPG (NYSE: LPG), referred to Chinese demand headwinds during his company’s latest call. Hansen cited “renewed impact of COVID-19 lockdowns” and worries about Chinese demand that “were a factor for market players, which resulted in more risk-averse [behavior] and reduced opportunistic trades.”

According to Lindeman of Navigator Gas, “All eyes are on China and when they are getting out of their malaise.”

LNG shipping

In the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, Europe is now buying a much higher share of U.S. exports than usual due to fallout from the Ukraine-Russia war.

Oystein Kalleklev, CEO of Flex LNG (NYSE: FLNG), said on his company’s latest call: “In a sense, you could say that Europe has been very lucky, because the cooldown in the Chinese economy driven by COVID lockdowns has resulted in lower demand from China.

“Chinese imports this year are down by more than 20% [or] 9 million tons. And European buyers have been able to get access to these cargoes, which would have been a lot more difficult if the Chinese economy was running at normal capacity.”

Kalleklev believes China will come back to the LNG import market, in a big way, pointing to commitments for new volumes that have yet to come onstream.

“Even though China has a reduction in LNG imports this year, they are signing for almost half of these new volumes, because the LNG story in China is in its early phases,” Kalleklev said. “This year, actually, Japan will probably import more LNG than China. And there are more than 10 times as many people in China. So, China will continue to grow once they get control of COVID and reflate their economy.”

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

GERMANY/ENERGY

Germany’s power grid, as outlined to you on several occasions faces collapse as millions stock up on inefficient electric heaters for the winter

(zerohedge)

Germany’s Power Grid Faces Collapse As Millions Stock Up On Inefficient Electric Heaters For The Winter

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Maybe they ran out of firewood to buy.

A few weeks after we reported that google searches for “firewood” exploded in Germany, ground zero of what is sure to be a very cold winter…

… the country whose electric grid will be crippled for the foreseeable future after Russia’s decision to halt nat gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, is now facing another crisis. According to ReutersGermans could overload their power grid as they switch to inefficient electric heaters in an attempt to avoid gas shortages this winter, utilities warned in an article published on Sunday.

Fearing the worst, German households have been stocking up on electric fan heaters, including portable devices, sales figures show, amid fears that Russia could cut or further limit gas supplies in the wake of its war in Ukraine.

The managing director of the German association of energy and water utilities, BDEW, told daily Handelsblatt that customers could be left with even heftier power bills if they do not use the devices sparingly.

“And they can overburden the power grids, for instance when many households switch on their fan heaters in one part of town at the same time on a cold winter’s night,” BDEW director Kerstin Andreae was quoted as saying. She said she understood people’s fears of cold homes, but some of the coping mechanisms could backfire.

Germany, along with other European Union countries, is scrambling to support homes and industries burdened by a further surge in energy prices after Russia halted supplies through the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline. Alas, no matter what Europe does, it can’t print nat gas, or commodities, which is why Charif Souki, chairman of Tellurian told Bloomberg TV that European buyers will ultimately be paying the equivalent of $120 to $150 per barrel for energy regardless of source for a long time.

Europe will be short on natural gas supplies this winter and over the next several winters, Souki said adding that “In the short term, it’s going to be obscene but I think that if everybody does the right thing, then over time, I think you’re going to find all of the energy prices are going to equalize.”

Pointing out the obvious, Souki said that high prices could result in demand destruction: “We’re short on energy sources in general,” he said. “So at some point, you’re going to find that oil, coal, gas and renewables are going to settle around a certain level and my suspicion is that it’s going to $120 to $150 per barrel equivalent for all of these commodities”

What was left unsaid for obvious reasons, is that “demand destruction” means thousands of people freezing to death.

To be sure, the German government has pledged that industrial users would be the first to be rationed in case of a shortfall and that private households would be spared any cuts, but it remains to be seen just how those with political clout and money will fail to get preferential treatment to millions of German pensioners.

The president of Germany’s federal network agency also said local power blackouts could result from peaks in fan heater use, according to a Saturday interview with newspaper Tagesspiegel. 

Klaus Mueller added that even amid “very high” gas prices, electric heaters would still cost users more than gas-based central heating, which is the most common form of residential heating in the country.

Germans bought 600,000 electric heating devices during the first half of the year, up almost 35% from a year earlier, according to data by market researcher GfK. The final number will likely be in the millions following the turmoil in Germany’s energy market in recent months.

END

EUROPE/UK/ENERGY

Europe in a mess!! The following explains why the EU will struggle to bring its energy crisis under control.  It is difficult to get all 27 countries to agree on anything!!

(Slav/Oil Price.com)

Why The EU Is Struggling To Bring Its Energy Crisis Under Control

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 05:00 AM

By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com

Last Friday, the energy ministers of the 27 EU members met for an emergency discussion of the energy supply situation in the bloc. The one thing they agreed on was implementing a ceiling on the revenues of power utilities that do not use gas to generate power.

What they did not agree on was everything else the Commission suggested last week, including a price cap on Russian gas, a cap on final energy prices, and a direct intervention in EU electricity markets. It’s hard to get 27 countries to agree on so many things without any compromise. This is why the EU’s survival plans for the winter may never work as intended.

Last week, the European Commission, headed by Ursula von der Leyen, proposed that EU member states impose a price cap on Russian natural gas imports, a mandatory cut in energy consumption across the bloc, and a cap on the revenues of power utilities that do not use gas.

The Russian gas price cap was one of the items that divided the EU at the Friday discussions after Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, warned that any country imposing a price cap on Russian oil or gas would stop receiving them.

Some EU members argued in favor of a gas price cap for all gas imports into the bloc, following a similar suggestion made by Poland earlier this month. Some 15 members of the EU were in favor of such a move, but others were skeptical. And they were right to be skeptical: Norway, the EU’s gas savior, has signaled it would not accept a cap on the price it gets for its gas.

“That’s not a solution we’d propose, we don’t think it answers the EU’s challenges,” Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said, adding, “I tell my European colleagues that I’m not the one who sells the gas.”

The problem is that the European Union does not have all the time in the world to discuss how to go about saving its economy and its citizens from blackouts this winter. And as Bloomberg pointed out in a recent analysis of the situation ahead of the energy ministers’ meeting, speed is not among the things the European Union is known for.

Belgium’s Prime Minister put it bluntly. “A few weeks like this and the European economy will just go into a full stop. Recovering from that is going to be much more complicated than intervening in gas markets today,” he told Bloomberg last week. “The risk of that is de-industrialization and severe risk of fundamental social unrest.”

Protests are already a fact. Tens of thousands took to the streets in the Czech Republic earlier this month to protest the energy and foreign policy of the government. Thousands are protesting against high energy prices in Germany and Italy, too. In France, police broke up an illegal protest this weekend, arresting several dozen people.

As the weather begins to get colder, these protests might grow and multiply, too. This makes the task of the EU governments all the more urgent. Yet there are already internal differences that would be difficult to resolve in a short time.

Croatia, for instance, plans to ban natural gas exports, which has set its neighbor – and gas client – Hungary on edge. Germany’s neighbors are not happy, either, after Berlin declared it would not change its mind about its remaining nuclear reactors and will retire them as planned.

“I want to make sure that we can provide everything to pass the winter,” the EU’s internal markets commissioner Thierry Breton said last week. “I think it’s important that every country, which has a capacity to do it for this very period, that they do whatever they can. And that’s also a matter of solidarity.”

Germany clearly does not see things the same way, and it seems the only one currently seeing things the way Germany does is its neighbor France: the two sealed a deal that will see France send Germany gas and Germany send electricity back. The rest of Germany’s neighbors, however, remain reluctant to ink solidarity deals with the EU’s largest – and currently most vulnerable – economy.

Even at the best of times, decision-making in the European Union takes quite a while. This is perfectly understandable: getting 27 states with their own national interests to agree on one course of action is often a challenge, and compromises need to be made.

This time, there is little space for compromise and even less time to settle on a course of action. Agreement on a gas price cap appears to be off the table if the EU wants to move fast. The only thing left that can be agreed upon quickly would be an intervention into energy markets to cap prices because consumption caps would be a challenge to negotiate.

“This is not the moment to have principal debates on energy markets. We just need solutions right now,” Marco Mensink, director general of the European chemical industry association Cefic said, as quoted by Bloomberg, last week. “The situation is very alarming – this is about the future of industry in Europe. Companies are shutting production down as we speak, and with these prices, they will not reopen.”

END

EU Scraps Price Cap On Russian Natural Gas

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The European Commission is walking away from the idea of proposing a price cap on Russian gas as part of measures to tackle the energy crisis, the Guardian reported on Tuesday, citing a leaked draft document of proposals it had seen.  

The draft document, expected to be unveiled on Wednesday, contains no reference to any price cap on gas, be it Russian or not, according to the leak viewed by the Guardian.  

Last week, the European Commission said it would propose a mandatory target for the EU to cut power consumption at peak hours, a revenue cap on electricity producers and fossil fuel companies, and a price cap on Russian gas as immediate measures to save the European gas and electricity markets and help vulnerable consumers.

“We will propose a cap on Russian gas. The objective here is very clear. We must cut Russia’s revenues which Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last Wednesday.  

However, EU member states remain deeply divided over a price cap on Russian gas, with at least ten out of 27 governments reportedly opposing such as move over concerns that Putin might retaliate with a complete halt of gas supply to the whole of Europe. Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and the most affected EU member by the now-shut Nord Stream pipeline, isn’t supportive of the plan, either. 

Another group of EU countries, which include France and Poland, pushed for a price cap on all imported gas. However, the European Commission is wary of this idea because a cap would hurt Europe’s ability to draw in large volumes of LNG if prices elsewhere are higher. 

The gas price cap is thus unlikely to make it in Wednesday’s proposal from the Commission, although the draft is still subject to changes, according to the Guardian. 

But the EU executive arm is said to be pressing forward with a cap on revenues for nuclear and renewable power producers and a levy on the extra profits of the fossil fuel companies, including the refining sector, sources with knowledge of the discussions told Bloomberg on Tuesday. 

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

RUSSIA/ARMENIA/AZERBIJAN

Heavy fighting breaks out last night between Armenia and Azerbaijan.  Armenia asks Russia for help.  We may have another NATO-Ukraine situation where the west gets involved to weaken Russia

(zerohedge)

Armenia Requests Russian Military Assistance As Fighting Breaks Out With Azerbaijan

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 05:44 AM

Update (2305ET): The overnight outbreak of fighting in multiple spots along the Armenian-Azerbaijan border is serious enough for Yerevan to have asked for its powerful ally Russia’s help. This has been revealed hours after Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held a late night telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin. The Armenian government has since confirmed it has requested Russian military assistance to repel Azerbaijan aggression and shelling, according to a statement (machine translation):

“During the meeting, further steps were discussed to counter the aggressive actions of Azerbaijan against the sovereign territory of Armenia that began at midnight. In connection with the aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, it was decided to officially appeal to the Russian Federation in order to implement the provisions of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, as well as to the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the UN Security Council. 

Armenia is basing the request on the Collective Security Treaty Organization pact it has with Russia, and under which Russia previously sent peacekeeping forces to Nagorno-Karabakh after the Fall 2020 conflict. 

Independent geopolitical analyst and Russia watcher Clint Ehrlich concludes of the hugely significant request at a time the Ukraine war is raging: “If Russia accepts, we could see a second NATO-Russia proxy war explode.”

Of the earlier in the night Putin phone call, the Kremlin said via TASS

“The Prime Minister gave details about the provocative, aggressive actions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in the direction of the sovereign territory of Armenia, which began at midnight and were accompanied by shelling from artillery and large-caliber firearms. The Prime Minister considered the actions of the Azerbaijani side unacceptable and stressed the importance of an adequate response from the international community.”

However, it should be noted that during the last major flare-up in fighting between the two longtime rival nations which share a restive border, Moscow was careful to not get too deeply drawn in – only agreeing to help broker a ceasefire and send several hundred Russian peacekeeping forces to oversee the terms of the agreement.

If Moscow does get pulled in, it might be seen in the West as an opportunity to “weaken” Russian forces on a separate front.

Some US Congressional leaders have meanwhile spoken out and stood firmly on the side of Armenia, citing unprovoked Azerbaijan aggression.

* * *

Heavy fighting has broken out between Armenia and Azerbaijan along the border shortly after midnight local time, with the ministry of defenses for both countries citing clashes at several locations. Armenia is saying its territory is coming under attack, and that intensive shelling is currently targeting Goris, Sotk and Jermuk in the east.

Crucially there are reports of exchanges of fire beyond far beyond the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, but shelling on Armenia proper. “Azerbaijani Armed Forces have launched military offensive against Armenian positions in Armenia proper,” writes one regional correspondent.

It appears the fighting has already been sustained for two hours, suggesting this could be the beginning of a broader full-scale war as tensions have simmered going back to the last war for Nagorno-Karabakh in September through November 2020.

Arman Torosyan, spokesman for Armenia’s Defense Ministry has confirmed that “intense skirmishes are continuing following Azerbaijan’s large-scale provocation along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.” Both sides are now charging the other with aggression and provocations. 

The Jerusalem Post is additionally reporting that “large clashes broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan forces along the border between the two countries on Monday night, according to Azerbaijani and Armenian Defense Ministries.”

“Azerbaijani artillery and UAVs reportedly targeted sites in Vardenis, Goris, Sotk and Jermuk in eastern Armenia.”

Below is the full Azerbaijan defense ministry statement:

Contesting these Azerbaijan accusations of a “sabotage” operation which were alleged to have kicked off the fresh hostilities, Armenia’s military countered with the following official statement:

On September 13, at 00:05, units of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces began to fire intensively at the Armenian positions from artillery and large-caliber firearms in the direction of Goris, Sotk and Jermuk. The Azerbaijani Armed Forces also use UAVs.

Complicating matters, there are still several hundred Russian peacekeeping troops in the restive Nagorno-Karabakh border region, as part of the settlement from the last round of fighting centered there.

This peacekeeping mission is now in doubt, and Russia’s major base in Armenia territory is said to be on “high alert”. 

END

IRAN/ISRAEL/EU/USA

Israeli Prime Minister announces that the Iran nuclear talks are dead

(zerohedge)

Israeli Prime Minister Announces In Berlin: Iran Nuclear Talks “Dead”

MONDAY, SEP 12, 2022 – 09:20 PM

In yet more confirmation that the long-running attempt to reach a restored JCPOA Iran nuclear deal has failed, a senior Israeli official representing Prime Minister Yair Lapid on Monday declared that Iran talks are “dead”

This comes as the Israeli government has been touting its “successful” lobbying of the US administration to not go through with a ‘bad deal’

A senior Israeli official called on Europe and the US on Monday to begin talking about demands for a “longer, stronger” nuclear agreement with Iran, saying current talks aimed at reviving a 2015 pact were dead after Jerusalem provided proof that Tehran had not been forthright during negotiations.

Prime Minister Yair Lapidand German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Getty Images.

Lapid and his top aides were in Berlin Monday, where the Israeli Prime Minister says he passed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz “sensitive and relevant intelligence information” on Iran’s nuclear program

The day prior, Germany, France, and the UK issued a joint statement calling out Iran’s sincerity and motives in seeking a restored nuclear agreement, citing “serious doubts” the Western signatories to the original JCPOA have. 

A senior Israeli official traveling with Lapid told reporters: “We gave information to the Europeans that proved that the Iranians are lying while talks are still happening.” 

“There’s not going to be a JCPOA, say the Americans and most Europeans. They say, ‘We have a lot of reservations about the possibility of a nuclear agreement,'” the official added, as quoted in The Times of Israel. “There are no talks right now with Iran. There is no one in Vienna.”

Despite only weeks ago some officials were hailing that the Vienna process had reached the “finish line” – and that a final text was under scrutiny after the EU delivered it to Washington and Tehran, there’s been increasing acknowledgement that it’s permanently stalled, if not collapsed altogether.

Israel has all along charged that the Islamic Republic simply wanted to use a restored deal as cover to continue to secretly pursue nuclear weapons – something Tehran has consistently denied. Lapid meanwhile, has claimed he has “up-to-date intelligence information on Iranian activity at the nuclear sites” which contradicts what Iranian officials say in public.

END

RUSSIA/GAZPROM

No wonder the rouble is strong!!  Russi’a Gazprom doubled its oi and gas revenue this year despite the fact that volume dropped in half

(HIRADO/Remix News)

Russia’s Gazprom Doubled Oil & Gas Revenue This Year (Despite Volume Dropping In Half)

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by HÍRADÓ via Remix News,

This year, Gazprom supplied 43 percent less gas to Europe than last year, but raised prices by three times on average.

This translated to the company’s European export revenue increasing from $53 billion dollars to $100 billion dollars, wrote Olivér Hortay, head of the energy and climate policy research at Hungarian think tank Századvég Konjunktúrakutató, in his Facebook post in response to an article published in the Financial Times.

According to the paper, the higher gas prices will help the Russian natural gas extraction company Gazprom offset the decrease in supply.

In an article published on Friday, the Financial Times reported that the company Gazprom is keeping its revenues from gas sales stable, as rising prices have compensated for its decision to reduce deliveries to Europe.

The Kremlin said this week that it would keep the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, which carries gas to Europe across the Baltic Sea, closed as long as the West maintains its economic sanctions.

This means that Gazprom is now delivering approximately 84 million cubic meters of gas to Europe via Ukraine and Turkey per day, compared to last year’s average of 480 million cubic meters per day, the British newspaper pointed out.

However, the drop in supplies is expected to push prices this year to an average of three times that of 2021, which BCS Global Markets oil and gas industry analyst Ron Smith said would help Gazprom increase its total revenue by 85 percent to $100 billion.

Last year, Gazprom exported gas to Europe and Turkey at an average price of $310 per cubic meter, resulting in gross export earnings of $54 billion.

Now, Ron Smith estimates that for all of 2022, the company will ship 43 percent less volume, but at an average price of $1,000 per cubic meter.

Hortay highlighted in his Facebook post that “Gazprom is delivering 43 percent less gas to Europe this year than last year, which increases prices three times on average. The company’s European export revenue will increase from $53 billion to $100 billion.”

A relatively small decrease in volume can cause a large increase in gas prices, which can result in an increase in revenues for the producer who is reducing his supply. In other words, it can be reasonably argued that Gazprom earns more by transporting less gas, analyst Ron Smith pointed out.

Sergei Vakulenko, an independent Russian energy analyst, estimates that Gazprom is earning about €250 million a day at current prices and deliveries, which means that it would lose as much if it stopped gas deliveries to Europe.

The Russian gas supplier achieved a net profit of $41.75 billion in the first half of 2022, compared to a profit of $29 billion for the whole of last year, according to the company’s announcement last week. The company paid an additional $20 billion in dividends to the Russian state.

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Interesting! Ukrainians are certain of victory

(zerohedge)

Ukrainians Are Certain Of Victory

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 04:15 AM

The Ukrainian military has reportedly been making advances over the past week on the Western front, gaining back territory in the regions of Kharkiv and Donetsk that were taken by the Russian military after its invasion of the country that started in late February.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, around 3,000 square kilometers were retaken, according to accounts that cannot be independently verified, and many towns liberated. The Russian side meanwhile spoke of a “regrouping” of its troops as apparent videos from the front showed abandoned Russian tanks and other vehicles. Russian shelling of infrastructure like power stations intensified with the recent developments, causing blackouts in the affected regions.

Despite international skepticism, the Ukrainian public has been convinced throughout the invasion that a military success against the larger aggressor Russia is possible.

Infographic: Ukrainians Certain of Victory | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In surveys carried out in late April and late June by the International Republican Institute, almost all respondents said they believed Ukraine could win the war. The agreement was so overwhelming that even with the latest developments in favor of the Ukrainian military, numbers could hardly even rise more.

Other countries had pledged upwards of $36 billion of military aid to Ukraine as of early August, while Russia has been isolated on the international stage, with only a few allies remaining.

end

Zelensky Says Ukraine Has Retaken 6,000 Square KM, But Army “Worried” About Defending It

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 12:05 PM

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said his forces have reclaimed 6,000 square kilometers of occupied territory from Russia since starting a major counteroffensive last month. Western media is presenting events near Kharkiv as an absolute rout of Russian forces, with other sources cautioning there’s little that can be verified, also amid the question of whether regained territory can actually be held and permanently controlled by Ukraine.

Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksii Reznikov himself admitted in a Monday Financial Times report that a prime worry remains the ability to hold on to the territory amid superior Russian munitions and supplies. “A counter-offensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” he said, with the caveat: “Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years.”

In a late Monday address, President Zelensky delivered rare good news to the public: “From the beginning of September until today, our warriors have already liberated more than 6,000 square kilometers of the territory of Ukraine – in the east and south.” He proudly announced that “The movement of our troops continues.”

The Associated Press has observed the following, and as war correspondents have been barred by Ukraine’s government from reporting near the front lines

Among the latest claims, Ukraine’s border guard services said the army took control of Vovchansk — a town just 3 kilometers (2 miles) from Russia seized on the first day of the war.

While every individual claim of military success could not be verified, Russia acknowledged that it has withdrawn troops from areas in the northeastern region of Kharkiv in recent days.

Reports of chaos abounded as Russian troops pulled out — as well as claims that they were surrendering en masse. Ukraine officials have said they have captured so many soldiers that they are struggling to house them. The claim could not be immediately verified.

Amid the unverifiable reports, but which appears to have video evidence, Ukraine is still conducting some strike operations inside both Russian-held Crimea and possibly even Russia proper

Some Ukrainian officials continue to talk about the “liberation” of Crimea, even as the realization sets in that much more artillery and heavy equipment will be needed if it hopes to keep up the counteroffensive pressure.

After a series of Sunday into Monday Russian attacks on key city infrastructure in Kharkiv, which is Ukraine’s second largest city – plunging much of the area into darkness – Kiev accused the Kremlin of an active ‘terroristic’ campaign of punishment and retribution while it retreats.

Zelensky said in a tweet that Russian forces are “terrorists and remain terrorists and attack critical infrastructure. No military facilities, the goal is to deprive people of light and heat.”

Some pundits are pointing out that if Ukrainian estimates of the ground of what it’s managed to gain back in Kharkiv Oblast are true, that would constitute an area more than twice the size of greater London.

British intelligence sources have meanwhile been cited in the AP on Tuesday who assess that Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army has been “severely degraded” over the past seven months of invasion, and that “Russia’s conventional force designed to counter NATO is severely weakened. It will likely take years for Russia to rebuild this capability.”

Some fear further that all of this could lead to Putin declaring an official state of war with Ukraine, given at this point the Kremlin still deems its Ukraine action as a limited “special operation”. 

END

Neo-Nazi Azov Regiment Is Leading the Kharkiv Offensive in Ukraine, Former Blackwater Group Involved

Inbox

Robert Hryniak3:24 PM (3 minutes ago)
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The dirtiest conflict

GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL//NEW ZEALAND

Very interesting:  the very radical on COVID New Zealand government has now reversed all mandates (restrictions) including mask and vaccinations

(Zhu/EpochTimes)

New Zealand Scraps Nearly All COVID-19 Restrictions, Including Mask And Vaccination Mandates

MONDAY, SEP 12, 2022 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Rebecca Zhu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

New Zealand will be retiring its COVID-19 traffic light system and significantly scaling down COVID restrictions from Sept. 13 so Kiwis could “move forward with certainty,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced.

It’s time to safely turn the page on our COVID-19 management and live without the extraordinary measures we have previously used,” Ardern said, calling it a “milestone.”Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern speaks to media at a press conference ahead of a nationwide lockdown at Parliament in Wellington, New Zealand, on March 25, 2020. (Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

With the abolition of the traffic light COVID protection framework, mask mandates will be lifted in all areas except in healthcare and aged care settings.

Household contacts will no longer need to isolate, while people tested positive to COVID-19 will continue to be required to isolate for seven days.

All government vaccine mandates will end on Sept. 26, and all vaccination requirements for incoming travellers and aircrew will also be removed.

After restrictions are lifted, it will be up to the employer’s discretion whether they will require workers to wear masks or get vaccinated for COVID-19.

In short, we now move on to a simple two requirements system of masks in healthcare settings and seven days isolation for positive cases only,” Ardern said.

The COVID-19 protection framework, or traffic light system, set out the rules for different traffic light settings, where red was the highest alert setting, and green meant no restrictions. At the time of removal, New Zealand was at orange.

The government also confirmed that COVID leave payments will continue.

COVID-19 Minister Ayesha Verrall also announced the purchase of an additional 40,000 anti-viral medicine courses, expected to arrive in New Zealand within days.

“So now, anyone over the age of 65, and Maori and Pacific people over the age of 50, or anyone who meets Pharmac requirements, can access the treatment in the early stages of contracting the virus.

This means more than double the number of New Zealanders will be able to access these medicines if they need them than previously,” Verrall said.

Decision Welcomed Across the Board

Retail NZ welcomed the move to return New Zealand to a “sense of normality.”

“After over two years of being at the forefront of COVID-19 rules, alert level changes, low foot traffic, and nonsensical mask rules, retailers across New Zealand will be pleased with today’s revised approach,” Retail NZ Chief Executive Greg Harford said.

“The revision today largely brings New Zealand in line with most of the rest of the world.”

But Harford encouraged the government to further revise the isolation period down to between three to five days.

ACT party agreed with the idea, with ACT Leader David Seymour noting that New Zealand had among the strictest isolation rules in the world.

Keeping people locked in their houses longer than is necessary imposes real costs to them and the economy without improving our COVID-19 response,” he said.

“New Zealand is holding on to a long COVID hangover. It turns out an ‘abundance of caution’ is an abundance of cost for New Zealanders.”

END

Criminals!!

(Stieber/EpochTimes)

FDA Refuses To Provide Key COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Analyses

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 11:47 AM

Authored by Zachary Steiber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. drug regulators are refusing to provide key analyses of a COVID-19 vaccine safety database, claiming that the factual findings cannot be separated by internal discussions protected by law.

The Epoch Times asked the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in July for all analyses performed by the agency for the COVID-19 vaccines using a method called Empirical Bayesian data mining, which involves comparing the adverse events recorded after a specific COVID-19 vaccine with those recorded after vaccination with non-COVID-19 vaccines.

According to operating procedures laid out by the agency and its partner in January 2021 and February 2022the FDA would perform data mining “at least biweekly” to identify adverse events “reported more frequently than expected following vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines.” The agency would perform the mining on data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).

In a recent response, the FDA records office told The Epoch Times that it would not provide any of the analyses, even in redacted form.

The agency cited an exemption to the Freedom of Information Act that lets the government withhold inter-agency and intra-agency memorandums and letters “that would not be available by law to a party other than an agency in litigation with the agency.”

The agency also pointed to the Code of Federal Regulations, which says that “all communications within the Executive Branch of the Federal government which are in written form or which are subsequently reduced to writing may be withheld from public disclosure except that factual information which is reasonably segregable in accordance with the rule established in § 20.22 is available for public disclosure.”

It’s not clear why the FDA could not produce copies of the analyses with non-factual information redacted. The Epoch Times has appealed the determination by the records office. The FDA declined to comment, citing the appeal.

‘Unacceptable’

Kim Witczak, co-founder of Woodymatters, a nonprofit that advocates for a stronger FDA and drug safety system, said the agency’s refusal to provide the analyses was not acceptable.

The secrecy is unacceptable for an agency that said it is transparent with the public about vaccine safety,” Witczak, who sits on one of the FDA’s outside advisory panels, told The Epoch Times.

“What’s the point of having VAERS if you’re not releasing it to the public?” she added.

Witczak said her concerns about vaccine safety were heightened by a recent paper from Dr. Joseph Fraiman and others that found a higher incidence of serious adverse events in vaccinated participants in the original Pfizer and Moderna vaccine trials than in placebo recipients. She noted that the FDA’s 2004 warning for antidepressants that the drugs could increase the risk of suicidal thoughts and behavior came over 10 years after the trials on which it was based.

“If this data is available, shame on you for not making it known to the public,” Witczak said. “It’s as if they don’t trust the people to make their own best decision for what’s good for them and their families.”

CDC

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), according to the documents outlining operating procedures, was going to perform a different type of data mining analyses, called Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) mining.

The CDC has also refused, so far, to provide the results for those analyses.

It has also twice provided false information when responding to questions.

The agency initially said that no PRR analyses were done and that data mining is “outside of th[e] agency’s purview.” The agency then said that it did perform PRRs, starting in February 2021.

Later, the agency acknowledged that wasn’t true. The agency did not begin performing PRRs until March 2022, a spokesperson told The Epoch Times.

Roger Andoh, a records officer, gave the initial response, citing the CDC’s Immunization and Safety Office. Dr. John Su, a CDC official, gave the second response. It remains unclear with whom the information originated.

The Epoch Times has submitted Freedom of Information Act requests for internal emails that may provide answers.

Data Mining Reports

The Empirical Bayesian (EB) is focused on identifying disproportional numbers of adverse events, CDC scientist Dr. Tom Shimabukuro said in January 2021. It identifies “with a high degree of confidence, adverse event-vaccine pairs reported at least twice as frequently as expected for a COVID-19 vaccine compared to the VAERS database,” he said, or a comparison between the incidence of a specific event such as kidney disease after COVID-19 vaccine compared to the incidence of the same event after all other U.S.-licensed vaccines.

The FDA and CDC have provided periodic updates on the EB data mining effort.

“Importantly, there were no Empirical Bayesian data mining alerts detected for any adverse event COVID-19 vaccine pairs as of the last data mining run that the FDA performed on February 18th,” Shimabukuro told members of the FDA’s vaccine advisory panel on Feb. 26, 2021.

In a review memorandum (pdf) for an expansion of the emergency authorization granted to Pfizer’s vaccine, FDA researchers said that data through April 16, 2021, showed only a possible signal for body temperature.

Read more here…

GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY

END

Paul Alexander..

Open in browserPatterson et al.: “SARS-CoV-2 S1 Protein Persistence in SARS-CoV-2 Negative Post-Vaccination Individuals with Long COVID/ PASC-Like Symptoms”; Post-vaccination individuals with PASC-like symptoms..

exhibit markers of platelet activation and pro-inflammatory cytokine production which may be driven by the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein persistence in intermediate and non-classical monocytes.
Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 13 
▷  LISTENSAVE

 ‘enrolled 50 post-vaccination individuals who experience PASC-like symptoms, 10 healthy individuals, and 35 individuals post-vaccination without symptoms. We performed multiplex cytokine/chemokine profiling with machine learning as well as SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein detection on monocyte subsets using flow cytometry and mass spectrometry. determined that post-vaccination individuals with PASC-like symptoms had similar symptoms to PASC patients. When analyzing their immune profile, post-vaccination individuals had statistically significant elevations of sCD40L, CCL5, IL-6, and IL-8. SARS-CoV-2 S1 and S2 protein were detected in CD16 + monocytes using flow cytometry and mass spectrometry on sorted cells.Post-vaccination individuals with PASC-like symptoms exhibit markers of platelet activation and pro-inflammatory cytokine production which may be driven by the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein persistence in intermediate and non-classical monocytes.They add that spike protein persistence from vaccination appears to be a “major contributor” of symptoms similar to Long Covid post-vaccination, and further, that given the spike protein “alone delivered by vaccination can cause similar pathologic features”, that it may be a “major contributor” of Long Covid symptoms post-infection as well. In other words, Long Covid after infection may be being caused or prolonged by spike protein from the vaccine rather than the infection.Taken together, these findings suggest a possible mechanism for the debilitating symptoms found in some patients weeks and months following vaccination. The findings that the immune profile and persistent S1 protein in CD16 + monocytes suggest that S1 protein persistence is a major contributor not only of symptoms in post-vaccination individuals with PASC-like symptoms but also may be a major contributor of PASC itself given that S1 alone delivered by vaccination can cause similar pathologic features.’

VACCINE IMPACT/

Hollywood Makeup Artist Dead 9 Days After Monkeypox Vaccine

September 12, 2022 3:09 pm

There have been no recorded deaths so far from those diagnosed with monkeypox, but we now have our first report of someone who died shortly following a monkeypox vaccine. Michael Mosher, a Hollywood makeup artist, has died 9 days after receiving a monkeypox vaccine, according to social media posts. He was reportedly vaccinated for monkeypox on August 25, 2022, and then “died suddenly” on September 3, 2022. Mosher was also a fan of the COVID-19 shots and fully vaccinated for COVID, while ridiculing “anti-vaxxers” who refused to get the shots. The White House has ordered 2.5 million doses of the monkeypox vaccine, and the CDC is developing a protocol aimed at allowing use of Bavarian Nordic A/S’s Jynneos vaccine in children.

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY/

Scientists from Harvard & Johns Hopkins Found Covid-19 Vaccines 98 Times Worse Than the Virus

Inbox

Robert Hryniak3:21 PM (6 minutes ago)
to

https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/scientists-from-harvard-and-johns

END

cpowell@cox.net shared this with us

Inbox

The Epoch Times4:29 PM (13 minutes ago)
to me
The Epoch Times I thought you’d be interested:   Study Confirms Vaccine-Linked Myocarditis Deaths for First TimeRead More
 

/VACCINE IMPACT

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

“Who Is On The Other Side Of Those $1.5 Trillion In Energy Derivative Margin Calls Which Europe Is Bailing Out”

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 10:07 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Today is the key US CPI release for August. All eyes will be on that number, and more so given markets have spent the past two trading sessions generously pricing in “Transitory! Again!” Woe betide them if we get m-o-m prints above the -0.1% headline and 0.3% core expected, which still equals 8.1% and 6.1% y/y respectively.

The odds favor of a soft print today for a few reasons. Helped by a one-off release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that ends soon, US gasoline prices at the pump are back under $3 in places when they had been at $5. Lower energy prices flow through to many other items, including air fares. Moreover, reports are food prices could dip, particularly meat, as ranchers slaughtered earlier this year, temporarily boosting supply. You could see that simple logic at work in the New York Fed’s 1-year ahead consumer inflation expectations survey yesterday, which dipped from 6.2% to a 10-month low of 5.7%, while the 3-year expectation dropped from 3.2% to the lowest in nearly two years at 2.8%. Note none of this is 2%, or likely to shift the Fed from whatever it is locked and loaded to do in September – but it won’t stop the market screaming ahead with another leg in the “transitory” trade.

Indeed, there are several core reasons why markets always think inflation is transitory.

First, it was very much so for a very long time.

Second, it is self-serving: lower inflation means lower rates, which means higher asset prices, which makes the people saying “transitory” richer or able to attract more fund inflows. You cannot discount that uncomfortable truth any more than you would from a scientist peddling a new discovery that they have shares in – follow the money as well as the science.

Third, economics is not a science. The we-always-trend-back-to-2%-inflation predictions it spits out are DSGE&DSGE (or Advanced DSGE&DSGE), a game of fantasy and imagination where a huge inflation dragon can be easily killed with a +25 rate hike. Its dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, based on concepts debunked by economics itself(!), are mean-reverting: they have to show inflation comes back to 2% again! They are incapable of showing other results unless you tell them what long-run inflation trends are going to be. Yet as the market gets ready to scoop up all the transitory treasure the inflation dragon had been guarding, things are happening in the world of ‘Dungeons and Draghis’.

The vast cavern holding the US SPR can’t keep being drained for long, even if it isn’t then refilled immediately. There are also drums in the deep from places people who play DSGE&DSGE in air-conditioned offices and homes never go. We could get a US railroad strike as soon as September 16, which would cripple distribution of agricultural and industrial goods such as fertilizers, chemicals, grains, coal, and steel, etc., and even risk backlogging US ports again. Those in the know underline even a short strike would send major ripple effects through supply chains.

Moreover, strikes may only be avoided by loss of treasure. Freight Waves reports three railroad unions just struck new tentative wage agreements which include a 24% increase from 2020-2024, 14.1% immediately, and five annual $1,000 lump sum payments, partly retroactive. Yes, a Wall Street giant is firing a slew of its expensive deal-makers as pipelines dry up: but if you want to track wage inflation among those with the highest marginal propensity to consume, and who hold the whip hand over physical pipelines, look to the railroads not the ‘railroaders’.

Central banks boast they slew the inflation dragon in the 1980s and can do so again with rate hikes. However, anyone who played 80’s edition D&D knows there is nothing more annoying than a party member who contributes little during a battle against a big monster, watching his companions take all the damage, and then steps in to deliver the final blow, as the rules dictated they alone gained all the requisite experience points for the kill.

The 70’s/80’s inflation dragon was NOT slain by high interest rates alone: others took huge damage via de-unionisation, deregulation, privatization, and globalization to kill it. Nobody in the current party, or any Western political party, is willing to see more of the same pain today: quite the opposite. There are no more technocratic NPC Draghis out there, even in Italy if opinion polls are accurate. Rather, the Financial Times today carries an op-ed asking, ‘Who will pay for the shift from efficiency to resilience?’, with the sub-heading ‘Western politicians want companies to foot the bill for post-neoliberal economics.’

Then factor in lower immigration, work-force losses from Covid deaths, the many suffering from Long Covid, hard-core cryptonites trading at home, lifestyle changers, early retirees, and ‘quiet quitters’ together, and you could get a much tighter, less productive labour market.

Then add in deglobalisation / onshoring, which by its nature is the opposite of what we saw in the 80s; and mix in military spending across the West which *will* match what was being seen in 80s. As noted yesterday, and warned of many times before that, 2% of GDP on defence is not enough: as Germany says it must assume a leading military role in Europe, Poland is aiming for over 4%.

Yet markets are playing the same always-mean-reverting-to-2%-inflation game of DSGE&DSGE.

Meanwhile, it’s a whole different fantasy role playing game in Europe, as Bloomberg reports the EU will push for 10% power reductions going forward. I was one of several voices pointing out the simple logic that if you won’t ration energy by price then you have to ration by diktat: EU month-to-date September natural gas demand is 16% below the 5-year average, but still needs to be more than double that to achieve the EU’s targeted 15% goal, according to some estimates. What diktat is to be seen then, as aluminium, steel, fertilizer, and greenhouse agriculture are turned off? Which unlucky firms, households, or public services, are to be shuttered or limited for the foreseeable future? And who decides – the Dungeon Master? These are pressing questions.

So are those around reported requests for $1.5 trillion to cover margin calls in the derivatives market Europe is being asked to stump up for energy firms – so far. Who is on the other side of those trades? Are central banks (and taxpayers) on the hook for it given this crisis is structural, not cyclical? How large are the liabilities in the worst case? Is this the most efficient way to deal with this energy crisis? Will said energy derivatives market be shut down too, as some suggest? Playing DSGE&DSGE against that kind of real-world volatility really is escapism.

At least Western energy traders don’t have to worry about accidentally mysteriously falling out of windows, like they do in Russia, or off of their yachts, as they do if they are Russian. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t hidden traps around, because there are.

Anyway, let’s wait for inflation and roll those dice.

END   

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

AUSTRALIA

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0178 UP  0.0049 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 142.04   DOWN  .543 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1729 UP   0.0040

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 1.74 PTS OR .05%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 35.39 PTS OR .18%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.63%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 35.39 PTS OR .18% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.74 PTS OR .05% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.63% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 72.52 OR 0.25%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1730.80

silver:$19.88

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 107.53 DOWN 57  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

 MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.75% UP 6  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.239% DOWN 0    AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.85%// UP 6  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.98  UP 4   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.72% UP 8 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0003 DOWN  .01260   or 126 basis points

USA/Japan: 144.18 UP 1.605 OR YEN DOWN 161 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1522 DOWN .0167 OR 167 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0136 OR 136 BASIS pts  to 1.3117

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DWN 6.9284 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9774

TURKISH LIRA:  18.25  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.239

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7  IN basis points from MONDAY at  3.427% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.5441 UP 3  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 109.24 UP 114 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 87.17 PTS OR  1.17%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 213.32 POINTS OR 1.59%

Paris CAC CLOSED  DOWN 87.80 PTS OR 1.39% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 122.60 OR  1.80%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 306.54PTS OR  1.36%

WTI Oil price 87.17  12: EST

Brent Oil:  92.74   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  59.99  UP 0  AND 25/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.721

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9976 DOWN .0154     OR  154 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1499 DOWN  .0189 or  189 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.43 UP 1.844//YEN UP 185 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3164 UP 0.01825  (CDN dollar, DOWN 183 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 87.68

Brent OIL:  93.39

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.420 UP 6 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.499  DOWN 1  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.25

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  59.90  UP 0 AND   34 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 1276.37 PTS OR 3.94 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 706.10 PTS OR 5.54%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 27,23 UP 3.36 PTS (14.08)%

GLD: $158.54 DOWN 2.09 OR 1.30%

SLV/ $17.83 DOWN 34 CENTS OR 1.87%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

“An Ocean Of Red…”

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 04:00 PM

What a shitshow!

Everyone was so sure, so confident, and then boom, CPI printed way hotter than expected…

…and the soft-landing dream was over…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1569696276039573508&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fmarket-turmoils-soaring-cpi-hammers-soft-landing-hope&sessionId=2186d7a9a38dbf87236d4e39e2fb980a8d945d86&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

While markets turmoiled dramatically, it was the STIRs that highlight the major shift.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=true&id=1569772468990054400&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fmarket-turmoils-soaring-cpi-hammers-soft-landing-hope&sessionId=2186d7a9a38dbf87236d4e39e2fb980a8d945d86&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

The odds of a 100bps next week soared to 47%, the odds of a 75bps hike in November jumped to 60%, and the odds of a 100bps hike in December spike to 50%…

Source: Bloomberg

All of this sent rate-hike expectations for year-end massively higher (actually the biggest jump in history)… and at the same time saw the implied odds of that sparking a recession surge as expectations for subsequent rate-cuts jumped dramatically too…

Source: Bloomberg

The terminal rate for Fed rates is now just below 4.33% in April 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which erased much of the last week’s squeeze-driven surge higher in stocks…The Dow has lost ALL of its gains from the last week’s squeeze…

“Aaand it’s gone!”

Nasdaq was the day’s biggest loser, down over 5% – its worst day since March 2020… The Dow’s 1200 point loss was the worst day since June 2020…

One day after AAPL’s best day since May, it suffered its worst day since May…

As the short squeeze of the last few days abruptly ended…

Source: Bloomberg

And all the US Majors crashed back below key technical levels (50DMAs)…

Bonds were a bloodbath today with the short-end monkeyhammered most…

Source: Bloomberg

Which sent the yield curve dramatically flatter – with the infamous ‘last hope standing’ 3M10Y spread plunging towards inversion…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ripped higher, erasing much of the last few days’ ‘dovish’-hope weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were clubbed like a baby seal with Bitcoin puking from over $22500 to almost $20000 (down over 10% – its worst drop since the June collapse)…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot gold puked back below $1700 but found support there again…

Source: Bloomberg

But, after the Biden admin said it was mulling refilling the SPR, oil prices rallied and almost made it into positive territory on the day…

Finally, it’s catch-down time for stocks once again as tightening expectations slam reality back into the hope-filled face of stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

And bear in mind that we have a $3.2 trillion options expiration on Friday just as the buyback blackout window is closing – brace!

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I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//

‘Hot’ CPI Sparks Market Turmoil – 100bps Rate-Hike Odds Spike

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 08:49 AM

Having been convinced that we were at ‘peak inflation’, traders puked as CPI ran hotter than expected this morning (Core doubled expectations) sparking chaos across every asset class.

Stocks puked hard with Nasdaq down 2.5%…

The S&P 500 fell to the lows of Powell’s Jackson Hole day plunge…

Treasury yields exploded higher with the short-end underperforming (2Y +11bps)…

The dollar spiked back higher after recent ‘dovish’ hope…

Bitcoin also tumbled, back below $22,000…

Gold is also getting clubbed like a baby seal after the hot CPI print…

And finally, we note that STIRs are now pricing in a 20% chance of 100bps Fed Hike next week!

November is now pricing a 50% chance of 75bps hike and December is pricing a 25% chance of a 50bps hike…

Overall, that has pushed expectations for year-end Fed rates above 4%… which the market seems to now believe will plunge the economy into recession (and has pushed rate-cut expectations up significantly)…

The terminal rate for this Fed cycle is now at 4.28% in April 2023…

Powell will be pleased as financial conditions tighten and erase the recent squeeze-driven fiasco.

END

THIS AFTERNOON

ii) USA DATA//

USA consumer prices rose greater than expected at .1% month/month instead of a small drop. Core was much hotter at .6%!! This is the 27th month of rising inflation.  Gold and silver were clobbered

on the news.

(zerohedge)

US Consumer Prices Blow Away Expectations, Rise For 27th Straight Month

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 08:37 AM

Expectations for a 0.1% MoM drop in CPI has set the squeeze-algos on fire in recent days as the small drop signals ‘peak inflation’ and goldilocks and a unicorn-filled Fed will step back and declare victory (with a lag). Short-term interest-rates – however – have not been buying that dovish story, so how the market reacts to today’s print will be fascinating given the technical background of extreme negative delta and positioning, and now momentum. The market was pricing in a 90% chance of a 75bps hike by The Fed next week ahead of the CPI print.

Headline CPI came hotter than expected rising 0.1% MoM vs expectations of -0.1% MoM. That is the 27th straight month of rising inflation.

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps more notably, Core CPI was dramatically hotter than expected rising 0.6% MoM (vs +0.3% exp)

Source: Bloomberg

On a MoM basis both headline and core rose driven by Core Services (while energy slid)…

On a YoY basis, core CPI rose while headline slowed modestly but Core Services was the biggest driver…

Under the hood, energy costs fell while food prices and shelter costs rose..

Finally, we note that for the 17th straight month, Americans’ wages lost ground relative to the cost of living.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as a reminder, the S&P 500 has lost on average 0.5% on CPI day…

Trade accordingly.

END

Biden Scrambles For Damage Control After Disastrous Inflation Report

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 11:25 AM

After bragging just four weeks ago that the economy had “zero percent inflation” in the month of July (looking at cherry picked month-over-month figures which completely ignored the highest food price inflation since 1979), President Biden issued yet another insultingly stupid statement in response to Tuesday’s extremely hot CPI print which sent markets into turmoil and rate hike expectations shooting higher.

And so just minutes after markets began puking in response to today’s CPI, Biden claimed that “Today’s data show more progress in bringing global inflation down in the US economy,” adding “Overall, prices have been essentially flat in our country these last two months.”

Of course, as we noted earlier when one looks behind the curtains – this is the 27th straight month of rising inflation, including a particularly painful 11.4% increase in the food index YoY – its largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979. The ‘food at home’ index rose 13.5%, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending in March 1979.

And – to be expected, Biden is cherry-picking the least moldy strawberry out of the basket – bragging that “Gas prices are down an average of $1.30 a gallon since the beginning of the summer” (thanks to the admin draining our strategic petroleum reserve). Yet, it’s still up 76% from when Biden was elected.

Biden also claims that “real wages went up again for a second month in a row,” when in fact they are down for 17 straight months on a YoY basis.

And now – just four weeks after bragging about “zero inflation,” Biden says “It will take more time and resolve to bring inflation down, which is why we passed the Inflation Reduction Act to lower the cost of healthcare, prescription drugs and energy. “

JPMorgan Chase President Daniel Pinto helped with damage control on Tuesday, saying in a post-CPI statement that US consumers are in a “very very good place,” despite revolving consumer credit card balances increasing (and personal savings as a % of disposable income dropping).

Momentum killer?

As Bloomberg notes, Tuesday’s report may have hobbled Democrats going into midterms.

Falling gas prices and two major legislative victories have boosted Democrats’ once improbable bid to retain their House and Senate majorities in the November midterms. So had early signals that red-hot inflation may be easing. But Tuesday’s price growth report will dampen Democrats’ hopes that the worst may be behind them. -Bloomberg

And as Bloomberg further notes, Biden’s ‘strategy’ may also be upended by “the possibility of a rail strike that could snarl supply chains, disrupt agricultural deliveries and cost the US economy more than $2 billion a day. The Biden administration is pressuring labor unions and freight-rail operators to agree on a new contract before a Friday deadline.”

Sure…

end/

Analysis of the CPI report:

(Zerohedge)

“There Is No Good News Across This Report” – A Shocked Wall Street Reacts To Today’s Scorching CPI Print

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 10:56 AM

As we noted in our preview last night, so confident was Wall Street that today’s CPI print would be a miss – driven ostensibly by a plunge in energy prices – that the Y/Y whisper dropped as low as mid/sub 7%, with Goldman saying the “Headline number most likely shows some disinflation and wont impact mkt meaningfully after tape’s recent run higher, unless shockingly cool…call it sub 7%…then keep your rally caps on” and JPM piling on that “a 7-handle CPI YoY we would likely to see a strong rally tomorrow.

In retrospect, pretty much everyone was wrong, with headline CPI coming in at a “shocking”, red hot 8.3%…

… a number which 47 of 50 economists missed, and which just BMO (and two other smallish banks, SMBC Nikko and Berliner Sparkasse) predicted correctly:

  • BMO 8.3%
  • HSBC 8.2%
  • BofA 8.2%
  • ING 8.2%
  • JPMorgan 8.1%
  • Soc Gen 8.1%
  • Citi 8%
  • Goldman 8%
  • TD 8%
  • BNP 8%
  • Jefferies 8%
  • Standard Chartered 8%
  • Stifel 8%
  • Nomura 8%
  • Wells Fargo 7.9%
  • Credit Suisse 7.9%
  • Morgan Stanley 7.9%

Where did the surprises come from? Well, developments in food and energy prices came with few surprises. Energy prices fell 5.0% M/M…

… with gasoline prices down 10.5%, and food prices rose 0.8%. Both numbers were in line with expectation.

The prints for both core goods and core services were stronger than anticipated, however: core CPI rose 0.6% mom versus consensus expectation of a 0.3% rise, and the yoy rate rose to 6.3% from 5.9% previously, as consumers seemingly shifted purchases away from cheaper staples (lower gas prices) to discretionary goods, lifting prices in the process.

Core commodities prices surged 0.5% on gains in a number of categories including apparel (0.2%), new vehicles (0.8%), medical care commodities (0.2%), and alcoholic beverages (0.4%); most on Wall Street had expected a small decline in apparel and a smaller increase in new car prices which unexpectedly increased sharply.

At the same time, used car prices fell 0.1% on the month, though this decline was less than what most had forecasted, based on the large declines observed in wholesale prices recently.

Discussing the inflation report, BofA said that its “outlook for inflation includes moderation in the rate of increase in core goods prices through year-end and stable goods prices in 2023. This month, however, strength in core goods prices came as a surprise and suggests that further easing of supply chain pressures and inventory rebuilding, particularly in autos, is needed before good price pressures can moderate.”

Meanwhile core services also came in hotter than expected, at 0.6%: the surprise came in transportation services, which rose 0.5% against (vs an outlook for a 0.5% decline). An while airline fares did drop 4.6%, other transportation costs surprised to the high side.

Elsewhere, medical care services rose 0.8% on a 0.7% gain in hospital services,while health insurance soared by a whopping 24.3% Y/Y (and up 2.4% on the month) making some wonder “rhetorically” if Obamacare wasn’t quietly and retroactively renamed to the Unaffordable Care Act.

Elsewhere, shelter inflation rose another red hot 0.7%, while Rents (0.7%) and OER (0.7%) came roughly in line with expectations, and there is no sign this trendline is slowing any time soon (as we warned last year, once housing prices start going higher, very little can stop them). 

Here are heatmaps for CPI on a M/M basis…

…. and Y/Y:

As BofA’s Michael Gapen writes, altogether the “solid” reading on core CPI and core goods prices, in particular, “suggests that underlying price pressures remain firm and suggests the Fed’s work is only just beginning. We continue to expect a 75bp rate hike in September and for a terminal funds rate of 4.0-4.25% early next year.” He adds that “solid employment gains alongside firm core inflation readings, in our view, point to additional monetary policy tightening and hard landing risks” and concludes that his “outlook for the US economy includes a mild downturn in 1H 2023 and a restoration of price stability in 2024.”

What about other Wall Street strategists? Below is a snapshot of kneejerk reactions across various Wall Street strategists and analysts courtesy of BBG:

Rob Dent, Nomura:

“We saw this tug of war between goods moderating and services remaining strong. This is not a tug of war. They both moved up. .. Right now I think the Fed is going to be looking at this with a lot of concern. There is no good news across this report.”

Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM GmbH:

“It’s been a reality check. Markets were, again, ahead of themselvesThe Federal Reserve will not step on the brakes before year end, so we can expect more rates hikes.”

James Athey, investment director at Abrdn:

“The recent bounce in equities looked incredibly ill-judged and premature. That CPI number is very strong relative to consensus and will not be what the Fed wanted to see at all. The chance of the pace of hikes slowing after September has receded somewhat as a result of this data but of course the reality is that what happens in Q1 2023 is still very much an open question.”

Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management:

“The US equity market was simply overly optimistic, whereas European equity markets are far far cheaper which gives them some resilience faced with this type of shock.”

Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate:

“The prices for necessities continue to fuel this fire, including shelter, food, and medical care. The substantial decline in gasoline prices is noteworthy but doesn’t address the overall problem with inflation.”

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank:

“Good news is, inflation in the US gives signs of easing. Bad news is, inflation in the US doesn’t ease as much as investors would like it to, and core inflation accelerated stronger than expected. Today’s figures are read as a guarantee of a 75bp hike next week, and probably 50bp or plus the month after.”

Danni Hewson, financial analyst at AJ Bell:

“Prices that have been bubbling over take time to cool and markets have been a little over enthusiastic in the last few days about the prospect of less aggressive rate hikes from the Fed in the near future. The reality is that whilst most things seem to be going in the right direction, there are still significant headwinds when it comes to things like electricity and gas supplies and simply keeping a roof over people’s heads. Realistically, there’s nothing in today’s figures to convince central bankers to switch tack and looking at rate hike probabilities 86% still expect a 75 basis point hike in the coming days.”

Esty Dwek, CIO at Flowbank SA:

“This probably comforts the Fed in hiking 75bp, but we are still nearing the end of its tightening cycle. However, they will stay higher for longer, so no pivot is coming. For markets, this is not as good as expected, but in any case, there was still a long way to go before markets & the Fed can feel that inflation will continue to fall.”

iii)USA economic commentaries

The following is a very important commentary. McDonald believes that the uSA will pivot, not because inflation is still roaring but due to the fact that the globe has

huge pain because of the higher dollar.  McDonald is following Michael Harnett who states that the big trade for 2023 will be to short the dollar. Thus we have two

factions out there: 

1. the Fed will allow the dollar will get stronger and knock off all emerging markets etc

2. the Fed will back off raising rates because of the USA pain it causes when the USA index is high. 

a must read

(zerohedge/McDonald)

Bear Traps’ Highest Conviction Trade: A Perfect Storm Is About To Hammer The Dollar

MONDAY, SEP 12, 2022 – 11:40 PM

At a time when Wall Street is stuck in a furious debate with itself whether or not the Fed will pivot because inflation this or that, we recently proposed on Sept 1 an alternative theory: the coming Fed pivot will come not because an “inflation target has been hit” (it won’t be for quite a while, especially since US unemployment will need to rise by over 4 million to contain inflation, a political unpalatable outcome), but because the dollar is soaring, and recently hit almost daily all time highs. As such we suggested that the Fed pivot will come not because of inflation but due to “devastation across the ROW.”

Over a week later, we were surprised that someone even as patently clueless as Paul “fax machine” Krugman had figured out that the multi-trillion global dollar short squeeze is having catastrophic consequences on the rest of the world, when he wrote that “whatever the reasons, however, it’s clear that the strong dollar is inflicting a lot of pain on economies around the world. Once again, it’s our currency but their problem. Should this influence policy?

Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist (inventor of the famous Sahm Rule recession indicator), has been a strong critic of the Fed’s hard line on inflation and more recently has been arguing passionately that the Fed has a responsibility to consider the damage its policies are inflicting on the rest of the world. She has a point. Unfortunately, I don’t think the Fed will listen — yet.

But…

Federal Reserve officials are still deeply worried about the possibility that high inflation will get entrenched in the U.S. economy, and that concern will dominate everything else until there are clear signs that underlying inflation is coming down. Once the Fed feels that it has some breathing room, however, it should start taking international repercussions into account. The dollar may be other countries’ problem, but even a purely self-interested America needs to live in the world our policies help shape.

Of course, the growing USD-bearish consensus is hardly news to Zero Hedge readers who knew more than two weeks ago that according to Michael Hartnett, the most accurate Wall Street analyst of 2022 by far, the top trade of 2023 will be to short the dollar, while going long the inverse trade, EMs:

The Trade of 2023: it’s “short US dollar, long Emerging Markets”… but only after the US recession starts (which will mark peak US$) and China troughs (likely after the coming China currency devaluation).

All of which brings us to the latest Bear Traps note by Larry McDonald, who not only echoes everything we have previously said about the Fed’s coming funding squeeze (see “The Fed Is Quietly Paying $250 Million To A Handful Of Happy Banks Every Single Day” from July 1) but puts the coming dollars crisis in stark contrast.

Here is how Larry explains it:

After the Great Financial Crisis – regulators wanted to make sure the U.S. financial system would never again succumb to the double-edged sword of excess leverage. Regulators forced U.S. banks to “reserve up” and so – for the last 14 years – Wall Street’s financial epicenter stored an ever-enormous dollar number of reserves – mostly found in U.S. Treasuries.

Today, as promised the Fed must pay these banks MORE and MORE interest on these reserves. As the central bank hikes rates – the unintended consequences are MOUNTING along with a political backlash – potentially louder than a Donald Trump appearance on “The View.”

This time next year, the Federal Government is looking at a near $400B negative swing;

  • a) from profit to a loss on the Fed’s transfer of net interest income – triggered by a surge in interest payments to banks on reserves,
  • b) plus $200B additional interest on their $31T debt load.

Dollar headwinds are mounting from; emerging market credit risk, China currency devaluation, the Eurozone energy crisis, a weaker U.S. consumer (see Capital One CDS), and one-year inflation expectations crashing at the fastest pace since the fall of Lehman Brothers.

Sit back, think of taking the Fed Funds rate from 25bps in March to 325bps this month, that’s three years of accommodation withdrawal in just six months. The price has yet to be paid for this violent right hook. A freshman-year economist can tell you it will take 12-24 months for the full effects to play out.

Now think of great films. Anyone that ́s ever seen the Hollywood classics in “Top Gun” knows how “Maverick” plays the game. Take extreme chances and push your next move as close to recklessness as possible – make the other-side believe there are no limits to your unpredictable path – when you know in your heart of hearts there are.

Running, not walking while blind in the dark. This is Powell ́s dangerous dollar–rates game.

Make NO mistake, the Fed knows what they don’t know. It’s time to get real. No academic on this planet can calculate the 12–24-month forward outcome of 300-450bps of rate hikes and $1T of QT – all delivered in less time than a “Hamilton” intermission on Broadway.

The whole lot has been tossed on a massively levered global financial system. They have very publicly sold investors on a path littered with incalculable risks with their pawns delivering weekly golf claps along the way.

After all the drama, genesis knocked on the door early Wednesday morning after breakfast. The truth is starting to come out. “Fed’s Brainard: There’s a risk of raising rates too much” – said Axios.

Let’s be clear, the S&P 500 is up nearly 4% since Lael started to acknowledge two-sided economic risks of a “global nature…. risks with overtightening.” Gold miners are 8-10% higher since the speech.

When stocks rally like this into a tape filled with really bad news, there is almost always a central banker behind the move. As much as “Maverick” shows off his dance with darkness, the political will to kill inflation just isn’t there.

Here we agree 100%: in fact this was our (rare) criticism of Zoltan Pozsar’s August note “War and Interest Rates“, in which the Hungarian predicted that Powell will pull a Volcker and push rates into the stratosphere. We countered that there is no way this will happen, since the tradeoff would be a crushing recession and millions unemployed as even Obama’s chief economist Jason Furman admitted late last week. In fact, with inflation now trending back down, we expect the Fed to pivot very soon, a move which will reverberate across commodities and send prices truly exponentially higher… but not for a few months. Meanwhile, the dollar will be crushed as near record longs scramble to cover. And speaking of the cost of fighting runaway inflation, McDonald writes that…

In reality, similar to the 1970s, it’s a social price just too high. As the breadth of bearishness rose, in recent weeks we covered half our shorts, and added to longs. JPM notes that after front-end rates have screamed 10x + higher, there are $15T of adjusted excess cash balances outstanding, or 16% of World GDP – highest level on record.

Bottom line: re-read Hartnett’s “top trade of 2023” reco: it could, and most likely will be, the most profitable trade of the coming year. Not surprisingly, his top trade is identical to what McDonald sees as the best risk-reward looking out 12 months: “Our high conviction – U.S. dollar bear basket is locked and loaded – EWZ Brazil, EEM Emerging Markets, FXI – KWEB China, global value names in EWU and gold miners GDX.”

end

GOLDMAN SACHS

(ZERO HEDGE)

Goldman Sachs got into the subprime card lending business, anchored by the Apple Card. After initial success losses are huge, with a loss this quarter of 2.93%, much higher than Capital One and Bank of America.

(zerohedge)

Goldman’s Credit-Card Losses Are Soaring – “Well Above Subprime Lenders”

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 06:55 AM

In 2018, we explained how Goldman Sachs had switched from betting against Subprime (Residential Mortgage Backed Securities and their various synthetic and “squared” derivatives) to betting with Subprime (hoping to profit off America’s sub-660 FICO population by lending to it).

Goldman’s credit card business, anchored by the Apple Card since 2019, has arguably been the company’s biggest success yet in terms of gaining retail lending scale, but rising losses threaten to mar that picture.

But now, post the COVID money-drop and various moratoria on payments/bankruptcies/delinquencies, the fecal matter appears to be starting to strike the rotating object as JPMorgan note points out that while competitors like Bank of America enjoy repayment rates at or near record levels, Goldman’s loss rate on credit card loans hit 2.93% in the second quarter.

That’s the worst among big U.S. card issuers and “well above subprime lenders,” according to JPM analyst Vivek Juneja.

Even more notably, Goldman’s losses are also higher than that of Capital One, the largest subprime player among big banks, which had a 2.26% charge-off rate.

“If there’s one thing Goldman is supposed to be good at, its risk management,” said Jason Mikula, a former Goldman employee who now consults for the industry.  

“So how do they have charge-off rates comparable to a subprime portfolio?”

None of that should come as a surprise though since, as the FT reported in 2018 citing analystsGoldman has been targeting riskier borrowers, supplying about one-fifth of its loans to people with credit scores below 660 on the commonly used FICO scale; there is a familiar name for this group of borrowers: “subprime.”

And now, four years later, as CNBC reports, more than a quarter of Goldman’s card loans have gone to customers with FICO scores below 660, according to filings. That could expose the bank to higher losses if the economy experiences a downturn, as is expected by many forecasters.

“People are losing their jobs and you had inflation at 40-year highs; that will impact the subprime cohort more because they are living paycheck to paycheck,” Michael Taiano, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, said in an interview.

“With Goldman the question will be, were they growing too fast into a late-cycle period?”

Savings rates are collapsing, forcing Americans to use their credit cards to maintain living standards as prices for everything soar…

“Goldman’s credit card net change-off ratio has risen sharply in the past 3 quarters,” Juneja wrote…

That is happening “despite unemployment remaining very low at 3.7% in August, similar to 2019 levels.”

Simply put, after a period in which borrowers strengthened by pandemic stimulus checks repaid their debts like never before, it is the industry’s “newer entrants” that are “showing much faster weakening” in credit metrics… and rising credit card rates won’t help…

As CNBC concludes, the difficulties seem to confirm some of the skepticism Goldman faced when it beat out established card players to win the Apple Card account in 2019. Rivals said that the bank could struggle to reach profitability on the no-fee card.

“Credit cards are a hard business to break into,” said Taiano, the Fitch Ratings director.

“Goldman already faces higher losses because their book of business is young. But when you layer on worse unemployment, you are exacerbating that trend.”

In 2018, quoted by the FT, CEO at the time, Lloyd Blankfein said Goldman was “being very careful” in its development of Marcus, “growing very slowly and deliberately with a lot of controls”, so that people do not take out loans they cannot afford to pay back.

It appears that all went out the window as ‘stimmies’ sparked a panicked rush for customers… and remember we are still ‘not in a recession’ and Americans are enjoying what Biden proclaimed “the strongest economy ever.”

Or maybe this surge in charge-offs at Goldman is the canary in the ‘consumers are strong’ coalmine.

end

Nationwide rail strike looms and this will throw the supply chain in chaos

(zerohedge)

Nationwide Rail Strike Looms As White House Seeks To Avert Supply Chain Chaos

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 09:25 AM

The Biden administration held talks with freight-rail companies and unions to avert more than 100,000 railroad workers walking off the job if contracts weren’t agreed upon by the end of the week, according to Bloomberg

President Biden’s involvement in stalled labor talks indicates just how serious the White House is taking the possibility of a work stoppage. Most of the railroad unions involved in contract disputes have reached agreements or were very close (as of Monday), while two unions totaling more than 100,000 workers are prepared to strike on Friday if contracts aren’t signed. 

Bloomberg said a union-affiliated person close to the negotiations noted some progress at the bargaining table Monday, but the unions and railroads still can’t agree on letting workers take unpaid time off for doctor’s appointments without being penalized. 

A strike ahead of the midterm elections in November would be a huge political risk for Biden and Democrats. A work stoppage would result in increased nationwide supply-chain chaos. Biden has promised the nation to be the most pro-union president ever — so optics would be very sour if a strike were allowed. 

Most of the 12 railroad unions have reached or finalized tentative agreements with BNSF Railway, CSX Corp., Kansas City Southern, Norfolk Southern Corp., and Union Pacific Corp. via collective bargaining. Two unions, the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the International Association of Sheet Metal Air, Rail and Transportation Workers, accounting for more than 100,000 workers, are still holding out while negotiating. 

On Monday, freight-rail companies initiated “contingency plans” for the possibility of a controlled rail network shutdown if labor disputes weren’t resolved. 

Amtrak warned passengers that interruptions could begin today on its national network as it removes trains on three long-distance routes “to avoid possible passenger disruptions while on route … these adjustments are necessary to ensure trains can reach their terminals prior to freight railroad service interruption if a resolution in negotiations is not reached,” Amtrak said in a statement. 

The Association of American Railroads warned a freight railroad shutdown could “devastate” Amtrak operations. This would likely mean tens of thousands, if not more, daily commuters could experience travel disruptions if a work stoppage occurred. 

We explained Monday a strike would cost the US economy $2 billion per day and result in supply chain disruptions for shipments of commodities, such as grains, fertilizer, and energy, along with consumer goods. 

“Coal would stop,” said Ernie Thrasher, chief executive officer of Xcoal Energy & Resources LLC, the biggest US exporter. “No coal is going to move until these guys go back to work.”

Source: Bloomberg 

Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley tweeted that President Biden needs to tell the unions to find a resolution, and “if he can’t, Congress must.”

“There is a role for Congress if in fact they fail to reach an agreement,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told Bloomberg. “We can pass legislation if needed,” he said. 

Congress can delay or halt a rail stoppage and it would probably be in the best interest of Democrats for optical reasons ahead of the midterm elections. 

END

White House Readies ‘Emergency Decree’ As Nationwide Rail Strike Looms

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 11:44 AM

Update (1144ET): President Biden and senior administration officials are working with others in the transportation industry, including truckers, shippers, and air freight, for “contingency plans” if a rail shutdown materializes at the end of the week, a White House official told Bloomberg. 

The administration is trying to understand what supply chains could be disrupted the most — and how to utilize other forms of transportation to ensure commodities and consumer goods continue to flow across the country. 

More than 100,000 railroad workers could walk off the job on Friday if freight-rail companies and unions don’t reach labor agreements. 

We noted that 29% of all US freight moves on the rails. Half the cargo is bulk commodities, such as energy, food, chemicals, metals, and wood productions — the other half is shipping containers of consumer goods. 

A work stoppage would cost the US economy $2 billion per day in supply chain disruptions. It wouldn’t be the best optics for the Biden administration ahead of the midterm elections. 

* * *

The Biden administration held talks with freight-rail companies and unions to avert more than 100,000 railroad workers walking off the job if contracts weren’t agreed upon by the end of the week, according to Bloomberg

President Biden’s involvement in stalled labor talks indicates just how serious the White House is taking the possibility of a work stoppage. Most of the railroad unions involved in contract disputes have reached agreements or were very close (as of Monday), while two unions totaling more than 100,000 workers are prepared to strike on Friday if contracts aren’t signed. 

Bloomberg said a union-affiliated person close to the negotiations noted some progress at the bargaining table Monday, but the unions and railroads still can’t agree on letting workers take unpaid time off for doctor’s appointments without being penalized. 

A strike ahead of the midterm elections in November would be a huge political risk for Biden and Democrats. A work stoppage would result in increased nationwide supply-chain chaos. Biden has promised the nation to be the most pro-union president ever — so optics would be very sour if a strike were allowed. 

Most of the 12 railroad unions have reached or finalized tentative agreements with BNSF Railway, CSX Corp., Kansas City Southern, Norfolk Southern Corp., and Union Pacific Corp. via collective bargaining. Two unions, the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the International Association of Sheet Metal Air, Rail and Transportation Workers, accounting for more than 100,000 workers, are still holding out while negotiating. 

On Monday, freight-rail companies initiated “contingency plans” for the possibility of a controlled rail network shutdown if labor disputes weren’t resolved. 

Amtrak warned passengers that interruptions could begin today on its national network as it removes trains on three long-distance routes “to avoid possible passenger disruptions while on route … these adjustments are necessary to ensure trains can reach their terminals prior to freight railroad service interruption if a resolution in negotiations is not reached,” Amtrak said in a statement. 

The Association of American Railroads warned a freight railroad shutdown could “devastate” Amtrak operations. This would likely mean tens of thousands, if not more, daily commuters could experience travel disruptions if a work stoppage occurred. 

We explained Monday a strike would cost the US economy $2 billion per day and result in supply chain disruptions for shipments of commodities, such as grains, fertilizer, and energy, along with consumer goods. 

“Coal would stop,” said Ernie Thrasher, chief executive officer of Xcoal Energy & Resources LLC, the biggest US exporter. “No coal is going to move until these guys go back to work.”

Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley tweeted that President Biden needs to tell the unions to find a resolution, and “if he can’t, Congress must.”

“There is a role for Congress if in fact they fail to reach an agreement,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told Bloomberg. “We can pass legislation if needed,” he said. 

Congress can delay or halt a rail stoppage and it would probably be in the best interest of Democrats for optical reasons ahead of the midterm elections.

end

We are now witnessing many strikes as labour costs will rise

(zerohedge)

‘Largest Private-Sector Nurse Strike In US History’ Unfolds Across Minnesota

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 01:28 PM

On Monday, 15,000 private sector nurses from 16 hospitals in Minneapolis, Saint Paul, and the surrounding communities walked off the job as they sought increased pay and improved staffing conditions in a healthcare system that is severely under pressure. 

“The strike is believed to be the largest private-sector nurses’ strike in U.S. history, and it comes as nurses have negotiated with hospital executives for more than five months and have worked without contracts for the last several months,” Minnesota Nurses Association (MNA) wrote in a press release. 

MNA nurses have been working on expired three-year contracts since May. The work stoppage on Monday followed a series of unsuccessful bargaining sessions between MNA officials and hospital executives. 

Central to those talks, which began earlier this year, have been negotiations regarding retention, understaffing, and overwork among nurses. Also, there’s been a call for higher pay because the average annual pay increase is well below the current inflation rate. 

“Hospital executives have already driven nurses away from the bedside by their refusal to solve the crises of staffing and retention in our hospitals,” the union said in a statement, adding that nurses are “understaffed and overworked.”

The union said the strike will last until Thursday morning and shows worker power continues to be strong as negative real wage growth for more than a year crushes the finances of nurses. 

Bernie Sanders has been an avid supporter of unions and strikes. He tweeted Monday, “I stand in solidarity with the 15,000 MNA nurses.” 

Twin Cities Hospitals, which represents the 16 hospitals affected by strikes, said all of this could’ve been avoided: 

“The Twin Cities Hospitals Group is deeply disappointed that the nurses’ union has chosen to strike before exhausting all efforts to reach an agreement,” Paul Omodt, a spokesperson for the group, told Fortune in a statement. “To be clear: The union’s choice to strike is theirs and theirs alone.”

The affected hospitals said temporary nurses had been called in to maintain services though possible disruptions could still occur. 

end

Fed Mouthpiece Speaks: “At LEAST 75bps Next Week” Sends Odds Of 100bps Rate Hike to 47%

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 02:02 PM

A little over an hour ago we reported that while everyone was waiting for the Fed’s WSJ mouthpiece Nick Timiraos to leak whatever it is that Powell wanted markets to know during the Fed’s blackout period, Nomura became the first bank to forecast an out of consensus 100bps rate hike during next week’s FOMC meeting.

To some this seemed far too high, but the Nomura case just got a powerful boost moments ago when Timiraos hit publish on his long-awaited WSJ market trial balloon in which he said that “the acceleration in inflation last month clinches the case for the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates by AT LEAST 0.75 percentage point at its meeting next week and raises the prospect of hefty increases continuing in coming months.”

He continues:

Fed officials had suggested they were prepared to make their third consecutive increase of 0.75 point next week even if inflation had cooled in August, as many economists were anticipating.

Some officials had begun considering how to slow their pace of rate increases on the expectation that inflation pressures might soon moderate, allowing them to raise rates in more traditional quarter-point increments by December.

But the latest inflation figures make it more difficult for the Fed to reduce its rate rises this fall, and they likely squash any debate around a smaller half-percentage-point rate rise next week.

The mouthpiece goes on that the Fed hasn’t raised rates by a full percentage point at one meeting since it began using the federal-funds rate as its primary tool for setting monetary policy in the early 1990s. Officials opted against the larger one-percentage-point rate rise at their meeting in late July, when they raised rates by 0.75 percentage point.

But this time will likely be different as the contemplates a rate hike of “at least” 75 bps.

Timiraos cited KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk, who said that “This report is a nightmare. This puts a one-percent rate rise definitely on the table.” That said, he also quoted Evercore ISIS economists who said “we see little-to-no chance,” of a 100bps rate hike.

But the final word of course belongs to Powell; and here Timiraos quotes the Fed chair who on July 27 said that “we wouldn’t hesitate to make an even larger move than we did today if the committee were to conclude that that was appropriate.”

Powell sent markets reeling last month with a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that appeared to push back against market expectations of a slowdown in rate rises. He repeated his concern that consumers would begin to anticipate higher prices to persist, creating a self-fulfilling cycle of high inflation.

“The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched,” he said.

And while a 100bps rate hike now appears to be in the page, the even bigger issue is where the terminal rate will be. As a reminder, Nomura now sees terminal around 4.50%-4.75%. Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska agrees: “The messaging from the Fed is likely to shift very quickly from a 4% terminal funds rate toward 4.5% and perhaps even higher.”

Timiraos also quotes from a speech last week by Fed governor Christopher Waller in which he pointed to how a short-term deceleration in inflationary pressures one year ago led the central bank to delay plans to withdraw stimulus. Inflation subsequently accelerated.

“The consequences of being fooled by a temporary softening in inflation could be even greater now if another misjudgment damages the Fed’s credibility,” said Mr. Waller. “So until I see a meaningful and persistent moderation of the rise in core prices, I will support taking significant further steps to tighten monetary policy.”

Mr. Waller said it was difficult to predict how high the Fed would ultimately raise the fed-fund rate. He said that if inflation were to moderate as he expected, the Fed might raise the rate to around 4% and then wait to see how the economic outlook develops. But if inflation accelerates in the coming months, the Fed would need to lift the rate well above 4%, he said.

Bottom line: the Timiraos leak was just as important as the market had expected, and Sept 100bps rate hike odds surged, doubling from 22% before the note to as high as 47% after.

In other words, it’s now a coin toss if we get 100 or 75bps next week, which means the Fed will need to send another signal – traditionally the Fed wants Fed Funds futures to show at least 70% confidence in a major rate  move before it is unleashed.

SWAMP STORIES

Unbelievable: a full blown political purge!

Menahan/InformationLiberatio.com)

“This Is A Full-Blown Political Purge”: Tucker Carlson Obtains DOJ Subpoenas Targeting Trump Allies

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 09:06 AM

Authored by Chris Menahan via InformationLiberation.com,

Fox News host Tucker Carlson on Monday obtained Attorney General Merrick Garland’s wide-reaching subpoenas demanding dozens of allies of former president Donald Trump hand over all their communications related to “any claim that the vice president and/or president of the Senate had the authority to reject or choose not to count presidential electors.”

Partial transcript via Fox News:

This show has obtained a subpoena from Merrick Garland’s DOJ issued in the past week and what it demands is both unlawful and without precedent in American history. The subpoena claims to be investigating, “any claim that the vice president and/or president of the Senate had the authority to reject or choose not to count presidential electors.”

Now keep in mind that any claim you make as an American citizen about electors, any claim you make about American politics, period, is protected explicitly under the First Amendment. That’s our core freedom. It’s why we live here. It’s why we’re proud to be Americans. It’s why so many American servicemen died protecting our country. Those are the freedoms that they fought to preserve. That’s why nobody prosecuted leading Democrats in 2016 when they sought to reject electors for Donald Trump. Right. It’s why none of those people, including Kamala Harris, is now in jail.

But right now, according to the subpoena that we have obtained, Merrick Garland’s DOJ is demanding all communication from the following people on this topic and let’s be clear before we read their names, that it is not clear what the investigation is actually about and that’s the most terrifying part.

What is this? On what grounds are you demanding my private communications with people? They never say but included in this precedent-breaking sweep of political opponents of the Biden White House would be former White House adviser Bernie Kerik, who was the former police commissioner of New York City; Boris Epshteyn, who is the current attorney for Donald Trump (At no time in American history has it been okay to grab the personal communications of someone’s lawyer because those are privileged. Not anymore.) Matt Morgan; Justin Clark; Kenneth Chesebro and Mike Roman; RNC official Joshua Findlay; Trump Attorneys John Eastman, Jenna Ellis, Joe DiGenova, James Troupis, Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, Victoria Toensing, Cleta Mitchell, and Bruce Marks. We could go on and on and on and on.

The DOJ is now going after former White House official Stephen Miller, a frequent guest on this show, with a subpoena. Why? Well, it could be because Stephen Miller went on this network and said, “If we win these cases in the courts, then we can direct the alternate state of electors are certified.”

In other words, he didn’t call for the insurrection, much less violence or a coup. He called for alternate electors to be seated if the court ordered them to be seated. In other words, he was following the constitutionally prescribed process post-election. He’s doing what is supposed to do. He was following the rules, but under Joe Biden, that apparently is now a crime. By the way, every one of these people has to hire lawyers to defend him or herself and a lot of them at this point, after two years of harassment by Joe Biden, can’t afford it.

In addition, we should say, we’ve obtained the subpoena, this subpoena goes on to demand the communications from dozens of other Republicans and people who have spoken to them, including State Representative Jake Hoffman in Arizona, Republican National Committee member Kathleen Berden in Michigan, former U.S. Representative Lou Barletta in the state of Pennsylvania and Republican State Party Secretary James DeGraffenreid in Nevada, among dozens and dozens of others.

So, what is this about? It can’t possibly be about January 6, the fake insurrection, the only insurrection in history with no guns, the insurrection in which the only person shot to death was a Trump supporter. No, the point of this is to suppress political dissent, to hobble an entire political party and to keep any of these people from ever participating in American politics again and by the way, the cost to each one of these individuals or to any person at whose house the FBI shows up is enormous. Ask anybody you saw the FBI showed up with guns at their home what that’s like. By accusing these people of insurrection for asking questions about electors by comparing them to Confederate soldiers, Merrick Garland’s DOJ plans to disenfranchise them if not jail them. Really?

So, prohibit people from participating in American politics in the name of democracy? Too ironic to be real? Oh, it’s real. It just happened in New Mexico. A state judge in New Mexico just removed an elected county commissioner from office, overturning the will of the voters. Why? Because he had dared to exercise his constitutional rights by participating in the election justice protest on January 6. So, this is a full-blown political purge. That’s not a talking point. It is not in any sense a conspiracy theory. It’s completely real and it began shortly after January 6 when Republicans, as usual, just as they were after the death of George Floyd, were so blown back, so intimidated by the aggression of the rhetoric from the other side that they let it happen.

And because they let it happen, as with the BLM riots, its effects are accelerating now. So, if you’re accused of supporting Joe Biden’s political opponents, you could be visited by armed agents from Joe Biden’s FBI.

Carlson also spoke with Trump supporter Lisa Gallagher, who was targeted by the FBI after an anonymous snitch sent them a tip claiming she was at the Capitol on Jan 6.

During his monologue, Carlson highlighted how the Biden regime and their allies spent the 21st anniversary of 9/11 declaring that all their political opposition are domestic terrorists.

END

Durham Shocker: Steele Dossier Primary Source Was Paid FBI informant

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 03:40 PM

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

Today, Special Counsel John Durham moved to unseal this motion in limine in the false statements case against Igor Danchenko.

This motion provides new information on the details of Danchenko’s lies to the FBI, further information on how Special Counsel Mueller ignored Danchenko’s false statements, expected testimony from Clinton-connected executive Charles Dolan, and one crazy development.

But we’ll start with the the most damning development: Danchenko [ZH: introduced to Steele in 2010 by none other than Russiagate impeachment witness Fiona Hillwas on the FBI payroll as a confidential human source from March 2017 through October 2020.

For background purposes, here’s our discussion on the Danchenko indictment and what the FBI knew about Danchenko’s Clinton connections. Recall that Danchenko was indicted for multiple false statements given to federal officials during the Trump/Russia investigation. There were a series of interviews, from January 2017 through the fall of 2017. (His interviews took place pre-Mueller and post-Mueller.) He has been charged with:

  1. Falsely stating to FBI agents on June 15, 2017 that he had never “spoken with PR Executive-1” (Dolan) about the dossier allegations.
  2. On March 16, 2017, falsely stating to FBI agents that “he received a late July 2016 telephone call from an individual who Danchenko believed was ‘probably’ [Millian”], when in truth and in fact, and as the defendant well knew, [Millian] never called Danchenko.”
  3. On May 18, 2017, falsely stating to FBI agents that he “‘was under the impression’ that a late July 2016 telephone call he received was from [Millian’]” when in fact Millian never called Danchenko.
  4. Falsely stating to FBI agents on October 24, 2017 that he had spoken to Millian “on the telephone on more than one occasion.”
  5. On November 16, 2017, falsely stating to the FBI that “he had spoken to [Millian] on the telephone” when he knew he never did.

The Motion in Limine

When the Steele Reports were released, the media picked-up on the most salacious rumors, one that was utterly unbelievable: that Russian intelligence had a video of Trump involved with prostitutes at the Moscow Ritz-Carlton Hotel. Also known as the “pee tape.”

The allegation came from Danchenko, who attributed it to his sources – one from the Ritz-Carlton, and another being Sergei Millian. Durham will refute it, as it expects to call at trial “Bernd Kuhlen,” the then-general manager of the Ritz-Carlton, who will deny speaking with or ever meeting Danchenko “in June 20165, or at any time.”

As to Sergei Millian (more on him later), Durham will show that Danchenko falsely stated to the FBI that this information from Millian “came from a single ten, or fifteen minute anonymous phone call that allegedly took place in late-July 2016.” That timing is of particular importance, as explained by Durham:

Then there are Danchenko’s false statements about Charles Dolan, an influential Democrat executive with ties to the Clintons. Interestingly, it was Dolan who was given a tour of the Ritz-Carlton Presidential Suite, which was the supposed location of “Trump’s alleged lurid sexual activities.”

In fact, Dolan is expected to testify at trial. According to Durham:

the Government anticipates that Mr. Dolan will testify that (1) it was he and Mr. Kupka who attended a lunch with the Ritz-Carlton general manager and other hotel staff during the June 2016 Moscow trip and that [Danchenko] was not present, and (2) neither Donald Trump nor his purported sexual practices were ever discussed at that lunch. Further, the Government also anticipates that Mr. Dolan will testify that Ritz-Carlton hotel staff did, in fact, provide the aforementioned tour of the presidential suite as part of the June 2016 trip and that, again, Donald Trump and his purported sexual practices were not discussed during that tour.

What is Durham’s theory on Danchenko’s motive for lying about the Ritz-Carlton allegations? Because it reflects “a deliberate effort to conceal from the FBI Charles Dolan’s role as a source for the Steele Reports and to deceive the FBI regarding Millian’s role (or lack thereof).”

In support of the theory that Danchenko engaged in an “over-arching ‘plan’ to deceive the FBI” about his work for Orbis (the company who collected the information contained in the Steele Reports), Durham also plans to introduce:

  • Evidence that Danchenko “on multiple occasions communicated and emailed with, among others, Charles Dolan regarding his work for Steele and Orbis.”
  • “Evidence that proves Dolan was aware of [Danchenko’s] reporting was part of a ‘related project against Trump’ and that this work was being done on behalf of Steele and Orbis.”

There’s more. Back in February 2016, nearly a year before his FBI interview and months before he started collecting information for Christopher Steele, Danchenko told a former employer how to fabricate sources:

The relevance of that e-mail? Danchenko’s advice to “attach multiple sources to information and obscure one’s own role as a source for information is consistent with [Danchenko’s] alleged false statements in which he denied or fabricated the roles of these individuals.”

The E-Mails and Steele’s Representations to the FBI

Also expected at trial, if allowed by the judge, are e-mails to/from Danchenko where he discusses his unsuccessful efforts to reach Millian.

Additionally, there’s an email where Christopher Steele informed the FBI that Danchenko “had met with Sergei Millian on two or three occasions – at least once in New York and once in Charleston, South Carolina.”

We brought up Mueller back at the introduction, and here’s why. Steele relayed information to the Mueller Special Counsel about the Millian/Danchenko meetings that they knew was false. What did Team Mueller do with that information? They buried it from the FISA Court and from the public. After all, Danchenko was now paid by the FBI.

Sergei Millian Will Not Testify at Trial.

Sergei Millian, a key witness for Durham, will not testify at trial. Millian is currently abroad. He has voiced his concerns for his safety, stating he does not trust the FBI. Can’t really blame him at this point. At this point, Durham can’t compel Millian’s attendance.

Certainly Millian is a key witness. But key doesn’t mean necessarily mean essential. The Danchenko e-mails and inconsistent claims are damning enough, and he can be convicted in Millian’s absence. It hurts – but isn’t fatal to – Durham’s case.

The FBI’s prior counterintelligence investigation of Danchenko.

When reports surfaced of Danchenko’s imminent indictment, we made an educated guess that he would be charged for giving false statements relating to his prior contacts with Russian intelligence.

Read the rest here…

THE KING REPORT

The King Report September 13, 2022 Issue 6842Independent View of the News
After China closed at 2 ET on Monday, the dollar plunged.  Traders then poured into ESZs and stocks. 
 
Russia’s front line collapses as Ukrainians recapture an area the size of Lancashire
Kyiv’s forces have freed the strategically significant cities of Izium and Kupyansk in what may be a possible turning point in the war
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/11/russias-front-line-collapses-ukrainians-recapture-area-size-lancashire/
 
@RobinBrooksIIF: The Euro is bouncing because markets see Ukrainian advances as hastening an end to this war. That’s wrong unfortunately. This war is many things, but above all it’s a war of survival for Putin, who cannot afford to lose.  So, the war will escalate from here. Euro will keep falling.
 
More Russia officials urge Putin to resign over invasion of Ukraine
Officials in St. Petersburg and Moscow are urging Putin to resign.
    “The rhetoric that you and your subordinates are using has been riddled with intolerance and aggression for a long time, which in the end effectively threw our country back into the Cold War era,” officials from Moscow’s Lomonosovsky district council wrote as translated in a letter to Putin last week with municipal elections scheduled on Sunday.
    “Russia has again begun to be feared and hated, we again threaten the whole world with nuclear weapons,” they wrote before urging Putin to resign, citing that his views are “hopelessly outdated and hinder the development of Russia.”
https://justthenews.com/world/europe/more-local-russian-officials-urge-putin-resign-over-invasion-ukraine
 
@RealCynicalFox: Hard questions need to be asked of the intel communities concerning how they could be so wrong in their assessments of Russian military capability.  Misreading what was thought to be a near-peer conventional opponent this badly is a massive intel failure.
 
Gen. Milley says Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine… Milley told lawmakers that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine occur
https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources
 
The Dollar Index hit a bottom near 4:42 ET.  ESZs rallied 35 handles from the low and peaked at 5:19 ET.  An A-B-C decline put ESZs 20 handles lower by 8:28 ET.  The rally for the NYSE open then began.
 
ESUs rallied into the NYSE open and then soared after the open.  ESZs hit 4122.50 at 9:52, ET, +37.00 for the day and +42.25 from the low that appeared during late Asian trading.  ESZs went inert for 15 minutes after the surge.  Five minutes later, they hit a high of 4137.50.  The bottom then fell out; ESZs sank to 4105.25 at 12:10 ET.  A Noon Balloon appeared; it lasted until 13:25 ET.  ESZs and stocks retreated until 14:32 ET.  The rally for the final-hour manipulation ended at 15:10 ET.
 
ESZs and stocks retreated until the late manipulation began at 15:40 ET.  The effort produced a 14-handle ESZ rally by the close, with a spike higher occurring minutes before the NYSE close.
 
Bonds traded modestly higher during early Asian trading but sank during the final two hours of Chinese trading.  When the dollar tumbled, bonds rallied sharply; USZs hit a peak of 133 26/32 (+7/32 from low) at 8:17 ET.  USZs and bonds then commenced a decline that pushed bonds to a small gain for the day just before the 10-year note auction.
 
The US 10-year note auction went poorly; bonds tumbled to a session low of 132 2/32, -28/32 for the day.
The 10-year note auction: 3.30% vs. 3.303% WI; Bid-to-cover 2.37; Primary Dealers took 19.8% of the auction, 15.3% average of past six values.
 
Goldman Sachs Prepares for Layoffs as Deal-Making Slows
The bank reported in July that its profit had fallen because of shakier economic conditions.
    The job cuts will affect employees across the company
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/business/dealbook/goldman-sachs-layoffs.html
 
@Stephanie_Link: Strategic Petroleum Reserve release today at 8.4mb – largest release ever and is now at the lowest level since Oct 1984.
 
Apple Rallies Most Since May on Strong iPhone Pre-Order Data
    Shares climb as much as 4.4% on Monday, biggest in four months
    It’s the best-performing megacap tech stock this year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-12/apple-rallies-most-since-may-on-strong-iphone-pre-order-data
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Global equity rally on dollar tumble
Apple led Fangs higher
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Ugly US 10-year note auction weighed on bonds
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
The dollar declined sharply for a second consecutive session
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: UpLast Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4104.45
Previous session High/Low4119.28; 4083.67
 
@lsanger: A new Harvard/John’s Hopkins study found that for every one COVID hospitalization prevented, “18 to 98 actual serious adverse events” have been caused.  The vaccine and vaccine mandates have been an enormous mistake, and studies are proving it.  https://t.co/5Z4wweBC9i
 
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis says Republicans are approaching big business all wrong: ‘Corporatism is not the same as free enterprise’
     “Corporatism is not the same as free enterprise, and I think too many Republicans have viewed limited government to basically mean whatever is best for corporate America is how we want to do the economy,” DeSantis said… “And my view is — obviously free enterprise is the best economic system — but that is a means to an end. It’s a means to having a good fulfilling life and a prosperous society. It’s not an end in and of itself.”…
    “They say you know what, it’s private. Let them do what they want to do. First of all, they cannot be viewed as private entities given that we know without a shadow of a doubt they are doing the regime’s bidding when it comes to censorship.”…
    He accused “corporate America” of having too much power in America and of “exercising quasi-public power in terms of using their economic power to change policy in this country.”
    “What I’m doing is using government to give space to the individual citizen to be able to participate in society to be able to speak his or her mind,” DeSantis said.  “And I think that’s an absolutely appropriate use of government power. ”  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/florida-gov-ron-desantis-says-republicans-are-approaching-big-business-all-wrong-corporatism-is-not-the-same-as-free-enterprise/ar-AA11I3IG
 
Credit Calculus Turns Against Stocks with Yield Edge over Bonds VanishingEarnings yield trails bond rates for first time in 12 yearsBulls point to inflation as reason for lower equity premiumThe model compares profit streams with interest rates. It shows the S&P 500’s earnings yield, the reciprocal of its price-earnings ratio, at around 5% now trails the rate from a lower tier of 10-year investment-grade bonds for the first time in more than a decade, according to Morgan Stanley data.
    The last time the spread was negative in 2010, the S&P 500 went flat the following year, halting a two-year rally…  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-12/credit-calculus-turns-against-stocks-with-yield-edge-vanishing
 
Alarm Bells Sound as World’s Second Largest Appliance Company Reports Demand Plunge
Swedish appliance maker Electrolux AB announced a cost reduction program after reporting a plunge in demand for its home appliances across Europe and the US…”High retailer inventory levels have amplified the impact of the slowdown in consumer demand.”…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/alarm-bells-sound-worlds-second-largest-appliance-company-reports-demand-plunge
 
Today – A big part of the late rally on Monday occurred on the expectation that August CPI will show a modest decline and traders will incontinently buy stocks on the delusion that the Fed will not hike rates to 4% by 2023 due to two benign CPI reports.  Ergo, if CPI is less than the expected -0.1% m/m, any rally could be transitory and part of a pump & dump operation by wise guys.
 
Pro Tip:  Though the guppies, media, and shills will focus on the headline CPI number, wiser guys will heed the Core CPI number because everyone knows gasoline and oil prices have declined substantially.  If non-energy inflation is more than expected, there could be fire in the hole.
 
ESZs are +3.00; USZs are +8/32; and the dollar is down modestly at 20:20 ET.
 
Expected economic data: August NFIB Small Business Optimism 90.5; Aug CPI -0.1% m/m, 8.1% y/y; Core CPI +0.3% m/m, 6.1% y/y; Aug Budget Statement -$220.0B
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4037; 100-day MA: 4028; 150-day MA: 4157; 200-day MA: 4273
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,239; 100-day MA: 32,235; 150-day MA: 33,922; 200-day MA: 33,566
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4800.68 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3877.02 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3919.52 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4054.89 triggers a sell signal
 
New disease erases Dems’ memories of their post-2016 attack on democracy
After 2016, Democrats denounced Trump’s win as illegitimate, said election was stolen
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/new-disease-erases-dems-memories-post-2016-attack-democracy
 
Biden Quietly Loosens Tech Export Rules to Chinese Communist Firms Just Days After Huawei Lobbyist’s Brother Joins White HouseReuters reported earlier in 2022 that the Chinese Communist-linked firm had paid Podesta’s brother Tony a whopping $1 million to represent the firm’s interests with the Biden White House.  https://t.co/eTCCOjlFk4
 
@CBS_Herridge: CBS News has confirmed military prosecutors and defense attorneys are negotiating potential plea deals that could take the death penalty off the table for the five defendants accused in the 9/11 attacks, @CBS_Herridge reports.
 
@BreannaMorello: Hillary Clinton is doing a media tour on the 10-year anniversary of the Benghazi attack and I haven’t seen a single reporter ask her a question about it. Were those the rules her team laid out before confirming interviews today? Interesting ain’t it?
 
Dirty tricks’: Hochul boosters accused of ‘deceit’ in pre-filled ballot applications
Republicans are accusing Gov. Kathy Hochul supporters of “dirty tricks” for sending voters pre-filled applications for absentee ballots — with COVID-19 already checked as the reason for voting remotely — in what appears to be a tightening race against Rep. Lee Zeldin ahead of the Nov. 8 election…
https://nypost.com/2022/09/12/gop-accuse-dems-of-playing-dirty-by-mailing-absentee-apps-to-hochul-supporters/
 
The Big Guy had a bad go of it during Monday appearances.  The internet teems with his follies.
 
@greg_price11: Biden: “We hold these truths to be self-evident that all men and women are created equal, endowed by their creator with certain unalienab–*brain freeze*… (We never fully lived up to it…”)  https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1569371683936411649
 
@greg_price11: Biden: “To the Defense Department that has ability to calculate the Energy Department to a million billion calculations per second.”  https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1569428705042202629
 
@greg_price11: Biden: “This is the United States *Kamare* for God’s sake.”
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1569369227919851524
 
@RNCResearch: “You’re confident this border is secure?” KAMALA HARRIS: “We have a secure border in that that is a priority for any nation.  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1569315687088246787
 
As global threats grow, concerns mount that Pentagon deprioritizing warfighting
“China likely cares very little about whether its sailors have access to education opportunities or whether their marine spouses are able to transfer their work skills from one location to another,” wrote Marine veteran Dakota Wood…Meanwhile, the U.S. Pacific Air Forces, which is tasked in part with deterring and preparing for conflict with China, has ordered its senior leaders and commanders to stop using gender pronouns such as “he” and “she,” the Washington Free Beacon reported…

 

Greg Hunter..interviewing 

See you tommorow

Harvey

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