SEPT 19/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $4.80 TO $1674.50//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 2 CENTS TO $1669.70//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $12.25 TO $918.75//PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $93.30 TO $2216.40//IMPORTANT GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM MATHEW PIEPENBERG//EUROPE’S ENERGY CRISIS CONTINUES WITH A GAS LEAK AT A REACTOR//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//VACCINE INJURY//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//PUERTO RICO HIT WITH A STRONG HURRICANE//CALIFORNIA’S TAX REVENUES DROPS A HUGE 11% AS CITIZENS MOVE OUT//ECONOMY WEAKENS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1669.70 DOWN $4.80 

SILVER: $19.35 DOWN $0.02 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1675.60

SILVER: $19.54

Bitcoin morning price:  $18682 DOWN 913

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,479 DOWN 116

Platinum price closing UP $12.25 AT  $918.70

Palladium price; closing UP $93.40  at $2216.40

END

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,671.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/16/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/20/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 C HSBC 231
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 19
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 4
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 409 162
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 4 8
905 C ADM 12


TOTAL: 427 427
MONTH TO DATE: 5,760

________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  

427 NOTICES FOR 42,700 OZ //1.328 TONNES

total notices so far: 5760 contracts for 576,000 oz (17.916 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 31 NOTICES FILED FOR 155,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  6459 :  for 32,295,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.02

AT THE SLV// ://GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILION OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 477.738 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A SMALL SIZED 293  CONTRACTS TO 134,211.   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.08 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.08)  BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE OF 1025 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DUE TO A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF 1220 EFP CONTRACTS,; WE DID HOWEVER HAVE  STRONG  SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A POWERFUL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 200,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//CONSIDERABLE SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -118

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 12 days, total 11,582  contracts:  57.910 million oz  OR 4.825 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (965 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 57.910  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 57.910 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A VERY SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 293 DESPITE OUR  $0.08 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1200 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A//  CONSIDERABLE NET SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 200,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1025 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.125MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 31  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  155,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 5809 CONTRACTS  TO 465,469 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:—714  CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $5.70//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  MAJOR SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND //CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 19,300 OZ //NEW STANDING 18.463 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF  $5.70 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1321 OI CONTRACTS 4.108 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4488  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 465,469

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 607 CONTRACTS  WITH 5095 CONTRACTS  DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4488 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 607 CONTRACTS OR 1.888 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4488) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (5809): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1321 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS///  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 19,300 oz.    3) MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

33,654 CONTRACTS OR 3,365,400 OZ OR 104.67 TONNES 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2804 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 21  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 104.67 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  104.67/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.95% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 104.67 TONNES (SLIGHTLY RISING THIS MONTH) 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 293 CONTRACT OI TO 134,211 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1200 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1200  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1200 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 175  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1200  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 907  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.535 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.08

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.80 PTS OR 0.35%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 195.73 PTS OR 1.04%    /The Nikkei closed HOLIDAY          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.38%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.0137//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.0185//    /Oil DOWN TO 82.77  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 89.03    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 5809 CONTRACTS TO 465,469 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $5.70  IN GOLD PRICING  FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP (4488 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4488 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :4488 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4488 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 1321  CONTRACTS IN THAT 4488 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 5809  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $5.70.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT   (18.463),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  18.463 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $5.70) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME MINOR  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED TOTAL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 607 CONTRACTS //   COMMERCIAL LONGS HUGELY ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS TRIED TO COVER ON   THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL LOSS  OF 607 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (18.463 TONNES)

WE HAD 714  CONTRACTS ADDED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1321 CONTRACTS OR 132,100  OZ OR 4.108 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 138,461///  poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  232,490/ fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 19

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz41,912.247 oz
Brinks
Loomis
includes 4
kilobars/Brinks






 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today427   notice(s)
42700  OZ
1.328 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)176 contracts 
17600 oz
0.5474 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month5760 notices
5760 OZ
17.916 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 128.600 oz  4 kilobars 

ii) Out of Loomis:  41,683.647 ( oz)

total:  41,912.247  oz   

total in tonnes: 1.305 tonnes

Adjustments: 1

Brinks/dealer to customer:  251,356.518 oz  

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an  oi of 603 contracts having LOST 276 contracts .

We had 469 notices filed on FRIDAY so we  gained a whopping  193 contracts or an additional 19,300 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.

October gained 1144 contracts DOWN to 43,212.  Oct is generally a poor active delivery month. It may change!! (Look for a very unusually large delivery month.)

November gained 51 contracts to stand at 285

December lost 6255 contracts DOWN to 376,771

We had 427 notice(s) filed today for 42,700oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  409 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 427 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 162 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5760) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT603 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 427 x 100 oz per contract equals 593,600 OZ  OR 18.463 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON  active month of SEPT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (5760) x 100 oz+   (603)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (427} x 100 oz} which equals 574,300 oz standing OR 18.463  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  18.463 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR A SEPT (   NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,436,250.551 oz   75.77 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  27,089,536.444 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,030,951.043  OZ (405.317 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,058,585.401 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,794.701. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 335.76 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 19

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,328,654.855oz

BRINKS
CNT
HSBC

JPMorgan









 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 1,267,157.650 oz
Loomis
CNT
Delaware




 
No of oz served today (contracts)31 CONTRACT(S)
155,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)141 contracts 
(705,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)6459 contracts
 32,295,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  3  deposits into the customer account

i)Into CNT: 600,382.200oz

ii) Into Delaware: 559,298.560 oz

iii) IntoLoomis: 107,476.900 oz

total deposit:  1,267,157.680   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 165.282 million oz/319.156million =51.75% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 4

i) Out of Brinks:  13,551.100 oz

ii) Out of CNT  92,653.350 oz

iii) out of HSBC  600,559.400 oz

iv) Our of JPMorgan:  620,882.760 oz

total: 1,328,654.855    oz

 adjustments: 1//dealer to customer

Brinks 300,538.150 oz

2. customer to dealer CNT  9750.050 o

3. customer to dealer Delaware  48,290.710 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 44.274 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 319.156 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 172 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 19 CONTRACT. WE HAD

59 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 40 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

200,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER GAINED 1 CONTRACT TO STAND AT 518 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 57

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 509 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 119,271

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 31 for  155,000 oz

Comex volumes:74,106// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 86,127 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  6459 x 5,000 oz = 32,295,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(172) and the number of notices served upon today 31  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,459 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (172)  – number of notices served upon today (31) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 33,000,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 44.516 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 33.000 MILLION OZ represents 74.13% of that category of silver.

If we add August’s final delivery (to Sept) for silver at 5.51 million oz, we have a total of 38.51 million oz delivered upon with a REGISTERED INVENTORY of 44.515 million oz or 86.506% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:41,262// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 59,964contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

  AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES  

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 960.85 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER  UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

  AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//  

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 477.738 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: FedEx Exposes The Myth Of The “Soft Landing”

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 12:05 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Inflation continues to surprise to the upside. Meanwhile, the economy continues to surprise to the downside. But the markets continue to believe that the Federal Reserve can slay the inflation monster while still guiding the economy to a so-called “soft landing.” FedEx announced some news last week that undercuts this narrative. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about why the landing is going to be hard. And when the economy crashes, the Fed inflation fight will be over.

Peter said in the short run, investors are not reacting properly to what’s going on.

I knew we were getting higher inflation. I knew we were getting weaker growth. Most people didn’t know that. But what’s still happening is every time investors are surprised with a hotter-than-expected inflation number, that makes them feel that the Fed is now going to have to fight harder to bring inflation back down to 2%. Nobody doubts the Fed’s resolve, or its ability to bring inflation back down to 2%. So, the higher inflation goes, the harder everybody expects the Fed to fight to win. And that keeps propping up the dollar, and that keeps suppressing gold.”

Peter said he has no idea when the markets are going to figure out that higher inflation just means the Fed is losing the fight, and no matter how hard it fights, it’s going to keep losing.

It’s not fighting hard enough because it can’t.”

Even if the Fed comes out with a 100-basis point hike this week, real rates will remain at -5%.

In what universe can you fight inflation with negative five percent real rates? You can’t, It is impossible.”

As Peter said in a previous podcast, the Fed falls further behind the inflation curve every time it hikes.

The Fed won’t succeed in killing inflation. But it will kill the economy. And that’s because it’s a bubble. The entire economy is based on artificially low interest rates.”

The economy can’t just levitate in midair. It has to fall down when the monetary supports are pulled out from under it.

There is no way to normalize interest rates after more than a decade of abnormally low interest rates and not let everything come toppling down.”

There are already signs that the economy is shaky. We’ve already had two quarters of negative GDP growth and the Atlanta Fed lowered its Q3 estimate to 0.5% last week. The housing market is falling apart. And last week, FedEx dropped a bombshell, announcing office closures and layoffs due to falling demand for shipping.

As Peter pointed out, it’s no wonder that package volume is dropping. Consumers are spending more, but they’re not buying more stuff. They’re just paying more for everything. FedEx exposes the underlying rot in the economy, and it’s going to get worse. Peter said when that happens, the Fed will abandon the inflation fight.

Layoffs are coming as real spending is going down, and that’s when the Fed ultimately is going to pivot. Once the economy really starts to buckle, the Fed is going to turn.”

Peter said he thinks the only reason Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to talk tough about fighting inflation is because he’s still delusional enough to think he can do it without destroying the economy. Powell still thinks he can manage a “soft landing.” He’s willing to put the economy in a mild recession and allow unemployment to tick up a little bit.

That would be getting out of Dodge with barely a scratch. So yes, he’s willing to do that. But is he willing to create a worse financial crisis than 2008? Is he willing to put the economy in the equivalent of a depression — great recession worse than we had in 2008? Of course not! He has zero tolerance for that.”

But Powell still doesn’t expect that, nor does anybody else in the mainstream. Most people concede that the US economy will move into a recession. But everybody thinks it will be “short and shallow.” But how do they know that? Why should it be short and shallow? As Peter pointed out, the bust needs to be proportional to the boom.

We’ve never had a boom this big. We’ve never had interest rates this low for this long. We’ve never had an economy more screwed up than the one we have right now. We’ve never had bigger asset bubbles, bigger debt bubbles, more misallocations of capital and resources. So, we have more mistakes that we need to fix now than ever before. So, how are we going to do that with a short shallow recession? We’re not. It’s going to be a massive recession. And again, the Fed has no stomach for that, and that’s why the Fed is going to pivot.”

And of course, this pivot is going to happen when inflation is still well above 2%. If the Fed goes back to zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing, it’s going to drive inflation even higher.

In other words — stagflation.

In this podcast, Peter also talks about silver as the silver lining in gold’s cloud, the declining stock market, the likelihood of a Black Monday in the near future, why bonds may crash harder than stocks, and the implications of that crash.

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

(Mathew Piepenburg)

a must read…

Jay Powell: A Breathing Weapon Of Mass Destruction?

SATURDAY, SEP 17, 2022 – 10:30 AM

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

Below we track how the Powell Fed serves as a contemporary weapon of mass destruction.

Powell’s so-called “war against inflation” will fail, but not before crushing everything from risk asset, precious metal and currency pricing to the USD. As importantly, Powell is accelerating global market shifts while sending a death knell to the ignored middle class.

Let’s dig in.

The Fed: Creators of Their Own Rock & Hard Place

In countless interviews and articles, we have openly declared that after years of drunken monetary driving, the Fed has no good options left and is literally caught between an inflationary rock and a depressionary hard-place.

That is, hawkishly tightening the Fed’s monthly balance sheet (starting in September at $95B) while raising the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) into a recession was, is and will continue to be an open head-shot to the markets and the economy; yet dovishly mouse-clicking more money (i.e., QE) would be fatally inflationary.

Again, rock and a hard place.

What’s remarkable and unknown to most, however, is that the Chicago Fed recently released a white paper during the Jackson Hole meeting which says the very same thing we’ve been warning: Namely, that Powell’s WMD “Volcker 2.0” stance (arrogance/delusion) is only going to make inflation (and stagflation) worse, not better.

To quote the Chicago Fed:

In this pathological situation, monetary tightening would actually spur higher inflation and would spark a pernicious fiscal stagflation, with the inflation rate drifting away from the monetary authority’s target and with GDP growth slowing down considerably. While in the short run, monetary tightening might succeed in partially reducing the business cycle component of inflation, the trend component of inflation would move in the opposite direction as a result of the higher fiscal burden.”

In short, Powell can’t be Volcker.

Why?

Simple.

America Can’t Afford Powell (or His Rate Hikes)

This hard reality is economic and mathematical, not political or psychological, though Powell suffers from both political delusion and a psychological lack of self/historical awareness…

I’d like to ask Powell, for example, how the US plans to pay for its now rate-enhanced (i.e., even more expensive) debts and obligations regarding defense spending, Treasury obligations, social security and health care when just the interest payments alone on Uncle Sam’s current bar tab are unsustainable?

Powell, part of the so-called “independent Fed,”will now have to make a political choice (and trust me, the Fed IS political): Will he A) intentionally seek to crash the economy into the mother of all recessions to “fight” the inflation his own private bank’s balance sheet singularly created, or B) will he help turn America into the Banana Republic that it is already becoming by printing (debasing) trillions more US “dollars”?

The “inflation-fighting” Powell, embarrassed to go down in history as the next Arthur Burns, may just A) continue to hike rates and strengthen the USD (currently bad for gold), which is sending America to its knees, or B) sometime this autumn he’ll cave, pivot and let inflation rip (while the BLS, of course, under-reports inflation (i.e., lies) by at least ½).

In the meantime, we can only watch markets and economic conditions continue to tank as interest rates and the USD climbs toward a peak before the USD makes a record-breaking fall.

And why do I see a fall?

Easy.

The Credit Markets Are Screaming “Oh-Oh!”

To borrow/twist from Shakespeare: “The bond market is the thing.”

Everything, and I mean everything, hinges on credit markets. Even the cancerously expanding US money supply(M0-M4) is at root just 95% bank credit.

Understanding credit markets is fairly simple. When the cost of debt is cheap, things (from real estate to growth stocks) feel good; when the cost of debt is high (as measured by the FFR, but more importantly by the fatally rising yields on the US10Y), things collapse.

We saw the first (and media-ignored) warnings of this collapse in September of 2019 when the oh-so critical (yet media ignored) repo markets imploded, none of which can be blamed on COVID (2020), Putin (2022) or climate change.

As dollar liquidity dries up, so will markets, economies and lifestyles. Remember: All market crises are, at root, just liquidity crises.

A Summer of Credit Drought

As previously warned, signs of this drying liquidity are literally everywhere. The Fed’s own Quarterly Loan Officer Survey confirms that banks are lending less.

And given that 70% of the US bond market is composed of junk, high-yield and levered loans (i.e., the worst students in the class hitherto priced as PhD candidates), the rigged game of debt roll-overs and stock buy-backs is about to end in a stock and bond market near you as rates rise to unpayable levels.

Furthermore, it’s worth noting that US banks (levered 10X) and European banks (levered 20X due to years of negative nominal rates), will now use rising rates as the long-awaited excuse to de-lever their bloated balance sheets, which is fatal to risk asset markets.

Even more alarming, however, is what this de-leverage will mean to that massive, USD-based and expanding (1985 to now) Weapon of Mass Destruction otherwise known as the OTC and COMEX derivative markets.

Rather that expand, this fatal market will contract—all of which will have massive implications for the USD as debt markets slowly turn from a past euphoria to a current nightmare.

The Dangerous USD Powell Ignores

Measured by the DXY, the Dollar is ripping.

But you’ll note that Powell and his “data points” never address the Dollar.

Powell, like most DC-based Faustian deal-makers, lives in a US-centric glass house, which ignores the rest of the world (namely Emerging Markets, oil producers and mislead “allies”) who are de-dollarizing (i.e., repricing the USD) as I type this.

In case Powell never took an econ history class or read a newspaper that was not written in English, it might be worth reminding him that EM nations like Venezuela, Lebanon, Argentina, Turkey, and Sri Lanka, as well as, of course, the BRICS themselves, are tired of importing US inflation and paying trillions and trillions of Dollar-denominated debt or forced dollar-settled oil purchases.

As the Fed artificially strengthens the USD via rate hikes, debt-soaked nations are forced to either: A) debase their currencies to pay their debts (which might explain Argentina’s 69.5% official interest rate) or B) raise rates and look elsewhere for new trading partners or money.

Even “developed” economies are seeing their currencies at record lows vis-à-vis the rising USD (Japanese Yen at 50-year lows, UK’s currency at 37-year lows and the euro now at 20-year lows).

And as for those cornered EM nations, $650B of the IMF’s 2021 usurious (and dollar-based) loans to them have already dried up.

EM Markets Looking East Not West

So, where will EM countries go trade, survival, better energy pricing, and even fairer gold pricing?

The answer and trends are now open and obvious: East not West, and away from (rather than toward) the USD.

Russia and China are making trade and currency deals not only with the BRICS at a rapid pace, but with just about every nation not otherwise “friendly” (i.e., forced to be) with the USA (and which “friends” now face a cold winter on this side of the Atlantic.)

Even the notoriously corrupt LBMA gold market, which spends its every waking hour using forward contracts to artificially crush the paper gold price, is about to see a Moscow-based new gold exchange (the Moscow Gold Standard).

Of course, such a Moscow exchange makes sense given that 57% of the world’s gold comes from Eurasian zip codes where a post-sanction Putin sees yet another golden opportunity to fix what the West has broken.

Furthermore, and as stated above, as the derivatives markets de-lever, demand for the USD (and hence dollar-strength) will equally tank, as OTC settlements are done in USD, not Pesos, Yen, euros or Yuan.

As we warned within weeks of the failed sanctions against Putin, the world is de-dollarizing slowly yet steadily, and once the DXY inevitably slides from 108, to 107 and then below 106, the Greenback’s fall will mirror Hemingway’s description of poverty: “Slowly then all at once.”

For the last 14 months, the Dollar Index has been trading above its quarterly moving average, which as the always-brilliant Michael Oliver reminds, is like a runner who never exhales. At some point the USD’s lungs will collapse.

Gold: Waiting for the USD to Snap

The foregoing and seismic shifts in the derivative and EM markets portend the sick finale of the USD, and hence for the currently repressed gold price. In short: As the former tanks, the latter surges.

Many are nevertheless angry that gold hasn’t ripped in a world of geopolitical risk and rising/persistent inflation, but that’s because the artificially rigged USD has been their only (and short-lived) measure.

As risk assets in the US and around the world experience double-digit declines, gold in every major currency but the USD has been rising, not falling:

And even gold’s relative decline in US markets remains minimal compared to double-digit losses in traditional US risk-parity (i.e., stock/bond) portfolios for 2022.

A COMEX in Transition

You also may have overlooked that those fat foxes over at the BIS recently unwound 90% of their gold swaps (from 500 to 50 tons) at precisely the same pace that JP Morgan and Citibank (which hold/control 90% of the US commercial banking gold derivatives) just expanded the notional value of their gold derivatives by 520% (!).

Anyone and everyone in the precious metals markets knows that the notional value of those contracts over-shoots the actual supply of the physical metal by 99%.

The COMEX is a nothing more than a legalized fairytale (fraud) whose non-fictional pains (and gold surges) are inevitable.

In the meantime, however, many players in the COMEX markets (the precious metal exchange in NY) are now (and increasingly) looking to take delivery of real rather than paper gold.

Why?

Because they see the writing on the wall.

Gold is a monetary metal not a paper card trick. The COMEX players want to get as much physical metal as they can before false idols like Powel and the global EM currents flowing East take down the USD’s post-Bretton Woods hegemony.

When/as that happens, gold does what it always does when nations and their debased currencies tank: It rises.

And you can be sure that JP Morgan and Citi will keep the paper gold price low until they have enough of the physical gold in hand when gold rips and the USD sinks.

For Now, More Lies, Empty Phrases and Distractions

In the meantime, Powell will act like the nervous captain of a sinking ship and play with rates and the USD as the DC information bureaus (i.e., BLS) spread more open fictions and false distractions on everything from the inflation and unemployment rate to suddenly forgotten viral threats (?), the freedom of Ukraine or the political theme of climate change.

And of this you can also be certain: Powell will continue the Fed’s historical role of crushing the US working class.

Translating Powell’s “Softening Demand”

As Powell wandered Jackson Hole, he warned Americans to prepare for “softening demand,” which is a euphemism for crushing the middle class via rising rates and long-term (rather than “transitory”) inflation ahead.

This rich.

After being the sole tailwind for pushing equity markets up by hundreds of percentage points with mouse-click money since 2009, the Fed has made the top 10% (which owns 85% of the Fed-inflated stock market wealth) extremely rich.

Now, by deliberately cranking rates higher, Powell’s Fed is making the middle class (bottom 90%) even poorer.

Wealth inequality in the US has NEVER been higher, and this never bodes well for the future of an openly fracturing nation.

Indeed, inflation pains and rising rates certainly hurt all Americans.

For the wealthy, such inflationary pains sting; however, for the working class, they cripple.

And as far as this crippling effect of “softening demand” goes, we can blame that squarely on the narrow shoulders of such false idols like Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and Powell.

For years, they’ve been saying their mandate was to control inflation and manage employment.

But that employment (as confirmed by PWC, household surveys and our own two eyes) is about to see hiring freezes, downsizing and lay-offs as debt-soaked enterprises with tanking earnings and confidence levels cut costs and jobs.

Again: That’s not “softening,” that’s crippling.

But as I’ve shown in Rigged to Fail and Gold Matters, the Fed’s real mandate is providing (now increasingly scarce) liquidity to credit markets (and hence tailwinds for the equity markets), which benefit a minority, not a majority, of the population.

This easily explains Andrew Jackson’s prescient warning that a central bank simply boils down to the “prostitution of our government for the benefit of the few at the expense of the many.”

Truer words were never spoken, and we are now seeing these warnings playing out in real time, and will see even more pain ahead in this surreal new normal of “softening demand” and a current America of central-bank created serfs and lords.

Powell’s words, of course, do not match his or the Fed’s deeds, a profile flaw that has been hiding in plain site since the Fed’s not-so-immaculate conception in 1913.

The more that investors understand where the decisions are made and why, and the more they track the market signals (bond yields, credit markets and currency debasements), the more they can prepare for what is already here and what lies ahead.

GOLD/SILVER

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

London Silver Inventories Continue To Plummet As Metal Exits LBMA Vaults

SATURDAY, SEP 17, 2022 – 08:10 AM

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com

There is an unprecedented situation emerging in London, where the relentless hemorrhaging of one of the world’s largest stockpiles of silver is now well and truly under way.

For the last 9 months, this stockpile of silver, held in the LBMA vaults in London, has been consistently falling each and every month, and has now reached an all time low (since vault holdings records began in July 2016).

These vaults comprise the precious metals storage facilities in and around London run by the bullion banks JP Morgan, HSBC and ICBC Standard Bank, as well as the London vaults of three security operators, namely Brinks, Malca-Amit and Loomis. Since the system of vaults is administered and coordinated by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), these vaults are collectively known as the ‘LBMA vaults’.

Back in July this year, BullionStar highlighted this developing trend in the article titled “LBMA Silver Inventories fall to a near 6 Year Low below 1 billion ounces”. 

That article covered the vault data up to the end of June 2022, where the London silver holdings had reached the dubious milestone of having dropped below the 1 billion ounce level, specifically falling to 997.4 million ozs (31,022 tonnes).

London sub-Billion Market Association (LBMA)

Since then, however, the situation has only worsened. Latest data for July and August show that the downward trend is still very much intact. During July 2022, London silver inventories fell by another 4.66% month-on-month, with the vaults seeing an outflow of 46.5 million ozs of silver (1447 tonnes). This brought total LBMA London silver holdings down to 950.9 million ozs (29,576 tonnes), and a new all time low since records began. (Note the lowest previous low had been 951.4 million ozs at the end of July 2016).

Now that August 2022 vault data has been released (LBMA release vault data by the 5th business day of a new month), we can see that August saw no reprieve, because in August the London silver holdings fell by another 3.62% month-on-month, with the vaults seeing an outflow of 34.4 million ozs of silver (1070 tonnes). This brings the LBMA silver vault inventories down to 916.5 million ozs (28,506 tonnes).

In other words, during these two months of July and August 2022, the LBMA vaults have lost another 2517 tonnes of silver.

LBMA Silver vaults: Total silver held as of end of August 2022. Source: www.GoldChartsRUs.comOutflows in 13 of 14 MonthsWith consistent silver outflows over the last 9 months to the end of August 2022, the LBMA silver vaults have now lost a whopping 254.5 million ozs (7915 tonnes) of silver since the end of November 2021. In other words, from a situation where the LBMA silver inventories had been  36,421 tonnes at the end of November 2021, they are now 21.7% lower at 28,506 tonnes.

To put all of this into context, the Silver Institute estimates that world annual silver mining production will only be 843.2 million ozs this year. That’s 26,262 tonnes. So the LBMA vaults, with 28,506 tonnes as of the end of August 2022, now hold just less than one year’s mine supply of silver. 

In addition, except for a blip during November 2021 in which LBMA silver inventories rose by 311 tonnes, the LBMA silver vaults have actually seen outflows for 13 of the last 14 months. This is because silver inventories in London also fell in each of the months of July, August, September and October 2021. Putting all of this together means that since the end of June 2021, the LBMA vaults in London have lost 8200 tonnes of silver (263.3 million ozs), and the vaults now hold silver representing just over one year’s mine production. 

While LBMA silver inventories did rise during the first six months of 2021, the net outflow from January 2021 to the end of August 2022 is still 5102 tonnes. And people say there is no silver squeeze?

LBMA monthly silver vault data 2021-2022. Source: LBMA website 

Backing this ETF silver out of the headline figure is thus even more revealing. According to the calculations of GoldCharts’R’Us, as of the end of August there were 18,110 tonnes of silver held by silver-backed ETFs which store their silver in London. This means that of the 28,506 tonnes of silver that the LBMA claims to be held in its London vaults, 63.5% of this is held in ETFs, and only 10,396 tonnes (36.4%) is not held by ETFs. This 10,396 tonnes also represents only about 40% of annual silver mining supply.   

LBMA Silver vaults: As of end of August 2022, only about 10,000 tonnes of London silver is not held by ETFs. Source: www.GoldChartsRUs.com

ETF Silver held in London

Just for completeness, I did some quick revised calculations to illustrate the amount of silver currently held by silver-backed ETFs and other ‘transparent’ silver holdings in London. These calculations are similar to the ETF silver calculations I did in July, and also similar to the methodology that is explained in the BullionStar article from February 2021 “‘Houston, we have a Problem’: 85% of Silver in London already held by ETFs.

These calculations were done on 9 September using silver ETF bar lists dated 8 September. This ETF silver is held in the London vaults of JP Morgan, HSBC, Brinks, Malca Amit, and Loomis.

  • SLV     iShares Silver Trust      11,329.3 tonnes          
  • SSLN   iShares Physical Silver ETC      707.5 tonnes
  • PHAG Wisdomtree Physical Silver ETC    2,488.1 tonnes
  • PHPP  Wisdomtree Physical PM ETC    41.8 tonnes
  • SIVR    Aberdeen Physical Silver Shares ETF    1,450.3 tonnes
  • GLTR  Aberdeen PM Baskets shares ETF    377.5 tonnes
  • PMAG   ETFS Physical Silver  238.9 tonnes
  • PMPM  ETFS  Physical PM Basket (part of PMAG total)
  • SSLV      Invesco physical silver ETC  356.6 tonnes
  • 4 ETFs    Xtrackers Physical silver ETCs (4 combined)   769.7 tonnes

Together these 13 ETFs currently hold 17,759.7  tonnes of silver in the LBMA London vaults.  

The LBMA London vaults figures also include silver held by clients of BullionVault and GoldMoney. BullionVault clients hold 491.2 tonnes of silver in the LBMA vaults in London (same as at the end of June, while GoldMoney clients hold 186.8 tonnes in the LBMA vaults (one tonne less than in June). Adding these two figures to the ETF total means that as of 8 September 2022, there were 18,437.6 tonnes of silver held by silver-backed ETFs and private client investors in the LBMA London vaults, which to reiterate, has nothing to do with “London’s ability to underpin the physical OTC market”.

This means that of the 28,506.28 tonnes of silver as of the end of August 2022, only 10,068.7 tonnes of silver is not held in ETFs. And another caveat as usual: of the London silver not held in ETFs, some of this too represents allocated silver holdings of the wealth management sector, such as physical silver held by investment institutions, family offices and High Net Worth individuals.

So as more and more silver drains out of the LBMA London vaults due to continued strong global demand, the free float (the amount of silver that is available to ‘underpin’ trading), is diminishing.

COMEX Silver also in Crisis

Over on COMEX in New York, the silver situation is also precarious, with ‘Registered’ silver inventories in the COMEX approved warehouses practically in freefall, and at a four and a half low. See the following chart. Latest figures for 9 September show that registered inventories (those that are warranted and available to back COMEX silver futures contract delivery) are now only 46 million ozs (1430 tonnes). This is insanely low. For example, more silver left the LBMA vaults during July 2022 (1447 tonnes) than there is currently in COMEX registered silver stockpiles. 

COMEX – Registered (available for trading) Silver – Near a 5 year low. Source: www.GoldChartsRUs.com

Regarding the COMEX category of ‘Eligible’ silver (which merely represents silver stored in the COMEX approved vaults which could be traded if it was put under warrant, but which realistically may have nothing to do with COMEX trading), the amount of silver in the COMEX eligible category hasn’t really fluctuated much so far in 2022 and has ebbed and flowed by about 30 million ozs (930 tonnes) within the 250-280 million ozs range. See the following chart. 

COMEX category ‘Eligible’ silver, as of 9 Sept 2022. Source: www.GoldChartsRUs.com

A Resurgence in Indian Silver Demand

Apart from 2022’s strong global investment and industrial demand for silver which is detailed by the Silver Institute here, there is now huge new physical demand entering at the margin, a case in point being India. Indian silver imports are now seeing some of their strongest monthly figures in recent years. See chart below which includes silver imports into India up to the end of July 2022.   

Reports out of India also say that July has been a record month, according to the following interview with Metals Focus India.

Following subdued silver demand from India in H2 2020 and H1 2021, Indian silver imports have now come back with a vengeance. Source www.GoldChartsRUs.com

LBMA bullion banks / ETF Authorised Participants appear to use London silver ETFs as a top up fund for physical silver, scaring the market by bringing the paper silver price lower and flushing out / triggering institutions and retail to sell ETF units, at which point the bullion banks pick up and convert these units, thereby obtaining extra metal that’s needed to meet physical demand. In fact, as physical silver demand rises, bullion banks will try to get the price lower so as to have access to the silver that is held by the ETFs. 

But the bullion banks know that in the West, a higher silver price brings in more ETF buyers, which in turn leads to more of the silver that is in the LBMA vaults being ‘spoken for’ by the ETFs. Which is why the bullion banks have a vested interest in keeping a lid on the silver price, because they don’t want a situation (such as early 2021) where ETF investor demand gobbles up a greater and greater proportion of LBMA silver holdings, as then this silver cannot be used to supply other industrial and investor demand (i.e. global demand outside London). See BullionStar article “LBMA acknowledges “Buying Frenzy” in Silver Market and silver shortage Fears” from April 2021.

This circus trick, where the bullion banks have to keep all the plates spinning at the same time, only works when they can control the various sources of demand and borrow silver from the ETFs. Which they do via controlling the silver price. 

But as demand for physical silver continues to accelerate globally and silver continues to flow out of London at an astounding rate (which are factors which the bullion banks seem to have lost control of), is this crunch time again for the LBMA?

Or will the LBMA mislead the market again like it did in March 2021 when it released eroneous data that overstated the London silver inventories by 3,300 tonnes and then kept the pretense all through April and early May 2021, maintaining that silver inventories were far higher than they actually were?

Only time will tell, but with physical silver demand firing on all cylinders and massive amounts of silver leaving the LBMA London vaults, the bullion bank tactics of rinse and repeat in creating a ‘paper’ silver price unconnected to physical demand and supply is becoming more and more exposed.

This article was originally published on the BullionStar.com website under the same title “London Silver Inventories Continue to Plummet as Metal Exits LBMA Vaults”.

.

end

Hi all,

See the following link:

Why is Australia’s financial crimes watchdog investigating the Perth Mint? – ABC News

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-19/austrac- investigates-perth-mint/101438128

yours faithfully,

John Adams

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: COFFEE

Coffee bean supply hits a a record low as global scarcity worsens

(zerohedge)

Brazil’s Coffee Bean Supply To Hit Record-Low As Global Scarcity Worsens

SUNDAY, SEP 18, 2022 – 03:00 PM

How much are consumers willing to pay for a cup of coffee? 

That’s a great question, considering the world’s top arabica producer, Brazil, is headed for record low inventory, highlights tighter global supplies plus robust demand should continue boosting prices. 

Bloomberg quoted Silas Brasileiro, president of the National Coffee Council, who said inventories in the South American country could decline to just 7 million bags (each weighing 60 kilograms) by the end of 1Q23. Brazil usually has 9-12 million bags in inventory.

Readers have been well informed regarding the global supply deficit of arabica coffee beans, which has materialized over the last few years. Recall “Arabica Stockpiles Experience Largest Plunge Since ’98 Amid Severe Shortage” and “Arabica Coffee Set For Largest Annual Increase Since 1994” because multiple years of a weather phenomenon known as La Nina have produced adverse weather conditions in the country’s top growing regions.

Stockpiles “are so low that even if we have a good crop next year, Brazil may just barely have enough to serve demand,” said Nelson Carvalhaes, a board member of exporters group Cecafe.

Tight global supplies have doubled arabica coffee futures in New York since 2020. Prices have traded in a lateral pattern for most of 2022 between $2-$2.5 per pound. 

Guilherme Morya, Rabobank’s senior economic analyst, said prices would continue increasing on Brazilian supply woes. 

In late 2021, restaurant chain Caribou Coffee Co. began panic hoarding coffee beans because the supply outlook was souring. 

“We continue to increase safety stock on key items,” CEO John Butcher told Bloomberg about one year ago. 

In Colombia, the world’s second top arabica coffee producer, crops are drowned in too much rain due to persisting La-Nina-related conditions. Yields are expected to decline in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, while Vietnam, the largest robusta supplier, will also see stockpiles tumble because of poor harvest. 

Analyst Natalia Gandolphi from hEDGEpoint outlined this will be the second year of declining global stockpiles with increasing demand. 

Given the worsening global supply situation, there’s no immediate relief as higher demand indicates arabica prices should move higher. Consumers will find robusta a cheaper alternative to arabica, but even then, all bean quality might move higher. 

Good luck to the central banks, who believe they can solve food inflation and overall inflation by crushing demand through higher interest rates. 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.0137

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0185

SHANGHAI CLOSED: DOWN 10.80 PTS OR 0.35%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 195.73 PTS OR 1.04%

2. Nikkei closed 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  109.71/Euro FALLS TO 0.9920

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.250/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 143.60/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.799%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.081% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.95%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.44//

3j Gold at $1661.70 silver at: 19.32  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 23/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.04//

3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and  89 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 143.60DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9664– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9655well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.498  UP 5  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.555 UP 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,29

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures, Bitcoin Crater As Yields And Dollar Surge

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 07:32 AM

After a dismal week for risk assets, which saw equities drop the most since June 17, global markets and US equity futures are tumbling in another extremely illiquid session (Japan and UK are both closed, the latter for the state funeral of QE2) as the realization sparked by Fedex that the world is in a global recession, is starting to finally seep through. Add to that Wednesday’s 75bps rate hike by the Fed (which however is more than priced in by now) as well as the previously discussed start of the buyback blackout period, and CTAs and pensions becoming forced sellers with investor sentiment that can at best be described as pervasive record doom and gloom, and it becomes clear why this week could be an even bigger bloodbath for stocks.

And sure enough, Nasdaq contracts have tumbled 1.2% as S&P futures are down 1.0%…

…the dollar is back into record territory, with rumors of a new imminent plaza accord growing louder by the day…

… 10Y yields are just shy of 3.50%, hitting a new post-2011 high this morning…

… which in turn is hammering European and Asian markets, as oil plunges in response to the fresh highs in the dollar.

In permarket trading, tech shares are lower and poised to extend last week’s decline, as investors expect the Fed to deliver a 75bps rate hike when it meets on Wednesday, putting pressure on pricier growth stocks. Tesla (TSLA US) -1.4%, Google (GOOGL US) -1.2%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Marathon Digital (MARA US) plunged as much as 8.4% in premarket trading on Monday alongside other cryptocurrency- related stocks, after Bitcoin dropped toward the lowest level since 2020 on monetary tightening concerns.
  • US-listed Chinese stocks edged lower in premarket trading Monday after Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong dropped, putting them on track to enter bear-market territory. Alibaba (BABA US) -1.5%, Nio (NIO US) -1.6%.
  • FOXO Technologies (FOXO US) surges in premarket trading after tumbling 52% on its debut on Friday via its combination with special purpose acquisition company Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corp.
  • Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO US) falls 6.5% in US premarket trading Monday after a hacker published pre-release footage from development of Grand Theft Auto VI, its most anticipated video game.

In addition to the startling FedEx warning which sent the stock crashing by the most on record, investors also face potential volatility from policy decisions this week by the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and a host of other central banks. The British pound sank to its weakest level against the dollar since 1985 on Friday and the yen remains under pressure, though it has backed off from just below the key 145 level versus the dollar.

“The aggressive tightening of policy in the coming 4-6 months, not just in the US but globally, increases the risk of a recession next year,” said Maria Landeborn, a senior strategist at Danske Bank A/S. “We expect uncertainty will remain high surrounding inflation, rates and the overall economy, which is negative for market sentiment and risk assets.”

With the Fed poised to hike 75bps (and perhaps even 100bps) and keep rising until it hits 4.50%, top Wall Street strategists see mounting risks for US earnings and equity valuations. Both Morgan Stanley’s Michael J. Wilson and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David J. Kostin said headwinds to profitability are building, highlighting tighter monetary policy and pressure on company margins.

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 fell 0.9% with Spain’ IBEX outperforming, dropping just 0.3%, CAC 40 lags, dropping 1.1%. Energy, financial services and real estate are the worst performing sectors. Rate-sensitive European real estate shares are among the worst-performing in Europe in Monday trading, with the region’s equity market dropping further after seeing the biggest weekly decline in three months, as investors await a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting this week.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Porsche Automobil Holding advances; Volkswagen AG said it’s looking to raise as much as EU9.4 billion from the IPO of its sports-car maker in what could be Europe’s largest listing in more than a decade
  • European energy stocks fall, making them the worst-performing sector in Europe on Monday, as oil prices dipped, erasing earlier gains, with the Stoxx 600 Energy index declining 1.8%
  • European real estate shares are among the worst- performing in Europe in Monday trading, with the region’s equity market dropping as investors await a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting this week
  • TF1 and M6 slumped after the French TV companies called off a planned combination because of objections from the country’s antitrust regulator; also today, Oddo cut TF1 to neutral
  • Valneva falls as much as 16% after the French vaccines maker said it will terminate a Covid-19 vaccine collaboration with IDT Biologika, agreeing to pay as much as EU36.2 million in cash.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell, poised for a fifth session of decline, as the dollar strengthened ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index erased early gains and fell as much as 0.8%, dragged by consumer discretionary and tech shares. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and South Korea were among the worst performers in the region. Japan’s market was shut for a holiday. The dollar’s gains put pressure on regional currencies, and stocks tumbled in the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. Traders are watching the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday for signals on further policy tightening, pricing in a 75-basis-point hike. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell more than 1%, taking its losses from a June 28 peak to just short of 20%, which will mark the start of a bear market. Mainland China stocks traded little changed Monday as megacity Chengdu exited a lockdown.

MSCI’s broadest Asia Pacific stock gauge has clocked five consecutive weeks of losses as investors factor in higher US interest rates and a strong dollar. Optimism over any easing of China’s Covid-Zero stance after the party congress in October is also waning. “Unless the Fed is done with rate hikes, the US dollar bull market is not over yet,” Lim Say Boon, chief investment strategist at CGS-CIMB Securities wrote in a note.

In Australia, The t&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to close at 6,719.90, the lowest since July 19, dragged by losses in health care and energy shares.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.4% to 11,531.99. The nation’s economic outlook is sound, despite increasing domestic and international turbulence, S&P said in a statement

Stocks in India snapped three days of declines, helped by a rally in consumer and auto firms on expectations of a boost in demand during the upcoming festive season. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.5% to 59,141.23 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also gained by a similar magnitude. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 20 rose and 10 fell. A gauge of fast-moving consumer-goods makers was the best performer among 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. Most stocks across Asia declined ahead of key rate decisions by various central banks, including the US Federal Reserve. A higher-than-expected inflation in the US has raised expectations of another 75-basis-point hike when Fed policymakers meet on Wednesday. Housing Development Finance Corp contributed the most to the Sensex’s gains, increasing 1.5%. 

In rates, Treasuries re-opened with yields cheaper by up to 5.5bp across front end of the curve in a bear flattening move. Into the weakness 10-year yields top at 3.506% and cheapest levels since June 2011. Cash market was closed overnight as UK observes a day of mourning for Queen Elizabeth II and Japan is out on holiday. Treasury yields 3.5bp to 5.5bp cheaper across the curve with long end outperforming slightly, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 0.5bp and 1bp on the day. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; up to $20b expected for the week with Monday and Tuesday potentially busy ahead of Wednesday FOMC. Latest CFTC positioning data shows hedge fund net short in two-year note futures, biggest since June 2021. Bund yields climb some 3bps across the curve. Australia’s bonds rose for the first time in four days. Yields fell 3-5bps across the curve.

In FX, the dollar strengthens against all FX majors; euro trades below parity while cable trades at around 1.13/USD and the yen slides near 143.43/USD. UK observes a day of mourning for Queen Elizabeth II. Some more details:

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced 0.3% as the greenback strengthened against all Group-of-10 peers. Risk-sensitive Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies were the worst performers. Treasury futures eased, sending yields a few basis points higher
  • The euro gave up an Asia session gain to drop for the first time in four days, yet momentum in options is less bearish across all tenors compared to a week ago. German bonds inched lower, with yields rising 3-4 bps, ahead of ECB speakers today
  • The Swiss franc and the yen held up best against wide dollar gains. Hedge funds ramped up bearish yen bets to a three-month high on expectations Japan would languish in a world where developed market peers are racing to hike interest rates
  • The yuan fell even as the People’s Bank of China fixed the currency at 6.9396 per dollar, 647 pips stronger than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts and traders, the widest difference on record since Bloomberg started the survey in 2018

In commodities, WTI drifts 1.3% lower to trade near $83.98. Oil futures have resumed the sell-off, in part amid the cautious risk tone/firmer Dollar. Nord Stream AG says it cannot confirm nominations for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline on Monday. Kuwait produces more than 2.8mln bpd and has plans to increase oil output whenever the market needs it, while Kuwait currently produces 650mln cubic feet of gas per day and plans to raise it to 1bln cubic feet, according to Kuwaiti Petroleum Corporation’s CEO, cited by Reuters. Spot gold falls roughly $10 to trade near $1,665/oz. European natural gas futures fall again to their lowest level in almost two months. Bitcoin extends decline to $18k-level as broad crypto selloff continues.

Bitcoin remained under pressure sub-USD 18,500. Ethereum extended on losses under USD 1,300.

It’s a busy week on the macro front, but Monday will be quiet with just the September NAHB housing market index on deck in the US. We also get the Eurozone July construction output, Canada August industrial product and raw materials prices.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 3,861.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7%
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 149.48
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 487.97
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 27,567.65
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,938.56
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.0% to 18,565.97
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,115.60
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 59,203.12
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,719.92
  • Kospi down 1.1% to 2,355.66
  • German 10Y yield up 3 bps to 1.78%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $0.9978
  • Brent futures down 0.9% to $90.53/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,663.72
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 110.05

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve officials are on track to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive meeting this week and signal they’re heading above 4% and will then go on hold
  • Investors bracing for another jumbo Federal Reserve interest-rate hike are focused on a few key trades: betting on deeper inversion in the US yield curve, further losses in stocks and a stronger dollar
  • The risk of a euro-area recession has reached its highest level since July 2020 as concerns grow that a winter energy squeeze will cause a slump in economic activity. Economists polled by Bloomberg now put the probability of two straight quarters of contraction at 80% in the next 12 months, up from 60% in a previous survey
  • European Central Bank interest rates will need to rise a lot more to get inflation under control, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said over the weekend
  • The Chinese megacity of Chengdu exited its lockdown on Monday, with 21 million people allowed to leave their homes and resume most aspects of normal life for the first time since Sept. 1, provided they’re tested regularly for Covid-19

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region lacking firm direction amid holiday-quietened conditions and with participants cautious ahead of this week’s slew of central bank policy decisions including from the FOMC, BoE and BoJ. ASX 200 was indecisive after gains in the mining industry were offset by underperformance in tech and defensives, with risk appetite also contained amid further calls for the RBA to hike by 50bps next month. Nikkei 225 was closed due to a domestic holiday. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured by losses in tech and pharmaceuticals, while the mainland was also subdued despite the cities of Chengdu and Dalian lifting lockdowns and the PBoC conducting 14-day reverse repos for the first time since January at a lower rate. Nonetheless, the injection was likely due to the upcoming National Day holidays and the rate cut was not much of a surprise after a similar cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate last month, while geopolitical concerns also lingered following comments from US President Biden that US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Chengdu lifted the lockdown for the entire city and Dalian will also lift the citywide lockdown effective this Monday, according to Bloomberg.
  • China NDRC is seeking to promote an acceleration of the recovery in domestic consumption and speed up the injection of funds to start project construction ASAP. NDRC said the foundation of the economic recovery is still weak despite positive changes in main economic indicators and that external environment for utilising foreign capital is increasingly complex and severe, while it added there remains some factors affecting foreign investment confidence.
  • UBS cut its China 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.0% due to a weak Q3 recovery, according to Bloomberg.
  • China’s Global Times stated that economists urged US regulators to serve market fairness and not let their work be trained with political factors as they are about to begin reviewing audit files of Chinese companies.
  • US tsunami warning system issued a tsunami threat in Taiwan on Sunday morning following a magnitude 7.2 earthquake.
  • Japan’s weather agency issued a special typhoon warning for the Kagoshima prefecture in southern Japan on Saturday, according to Reuters. It was later reported that the typhoon made landfall and millions were told to evacuate homes, according to FT.

The subdued tone seen across a holiday-thinned APAC session reverberated into Europe, with UK markets closed due to the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II. European cash bourses are lower across the board but off worst levels. European sectors are mostly lower with no overarching theme. US equity futures are softer in tandem with their European counterparts with relatively broad-based losses seen across the main December contracts.

Top European News

  • UK PM Truss will conduct a bilateral meeting with US President Biden at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday instead of meeting in Downing Street on Sunday, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
  • UK PM Truss agreed with Irish PM Martin that an opportunity exists for the UK and the EU for a negotiated Brexit resolution to the Northern Ireland protocol, according to RTE.
  • UK PM Truss’s chief of staff Fullbrook said he is cooperating with the FBI regarding an investigation into a Conservative Party donor charged with illegally providing campaign donations to a former Puerto Rico governor, although Fullbrook denied any wrongdoing, according to FT.
  • ECB’s Lane said there will probably be several more rate hikes this year and early next year, while he noted signs that inflation will come down but not just yet and said that a recession cannot be ruled out, according to Reuters.
  • ECB’s Nagel said the ECB are ‘a good way off’ from where rates should be and rates will need to rise a lot more to get inflation under control, although is confident that inflation rates will fall after a tough winter, according to Bloomberg.
  • EU is set to withhold EUR 7.5bln of funding from Hungary due to rule of law violations regarding corruption in awarding public contracts, according to FT.
  • EU may ask companies to expand or repurpose production lines, according to European Commission emergency powers to avert supply crisis

Geopolitics

  • US President Biden warned Russian President Putin against changing the face of the war by using tactical nuclear or chemical weapons in Ukraine, while he also stated that Ukraine is not losing the war and is making progress in some areas, according to an interview on CBS’s 60 Minutes. Furthermore, President Biden said he warned Chinese President Xi of an investment chill and that it would be a gigantic mistake if China violates sanctions on Russia but noted that there has been no indication that Beijing has provided weapons to Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
  • US Joint Chief of Staff chairman General Milley said during a visit to a military base in Poland that it is still unclear how Russia will react to the battlefield setbacks in Ukraine and now is the time for increased vigilance and preparedness, according to Reuters.
  • IAEA said one of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant’s regular external power lines has been repaired and the plant is receiving electricity directly from the national grid, while it added that although there has not been any recent shelling at or near the plant, it continues to occur in the wider area, according to Reuters.
  • Russia and China have agreed on further cooperating on defence with a focus on joint exercises, according to Interfax cited Russian Security Council.
  • US President Biden said US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, according to Reuters.
  • Taiwan said China continued its military activities around the island and that it detected 20 Chinese aircraft and 5 Chinese ships operating around Taiwan on Saturday, according to Reuters.

FX

  • The Dollar regrouped and regained a bid on a combination of technical and positional factors; DXY topped 110.00 but remains shy of Friday’s best.
  • EUR/USD retreated back under parity, GBP/USD under 1.1400 from a 1.1442 peak.
  • USD/JPY grinds upwards and briefly topped 143.50, whilst antipodeans are the G10 laggards.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds have extended to the downside after waning from best levels earlier or overnight.
  • Bunds are off a deeper 142.43 Eurex trough and the US 10-year T-note is nearer the base of its 114-12+/114-25+ range.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent futures have resumed the sell-off, in part amid the cautious risk tone/firmer Dollar.
  • Nord Stream AG says it cannot confirm nominations for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline on Monday.
  • Kuwait produces more than 2.8mln bpd and has plans to increase oil output whenever the market needs it, while Kuwait currently produces 650mln cubic feet of gas per day and plans to raise it to 1bln cubic feet, according to Kuwaiti Petroleum Corporation’s CEO, cited by Reuters.
  • Spot gold has been under pressure as the Dollar gained traction, whilst CME copper is softer amid the risk tone
  • Chinese copper tycoon He Jinbi’s Maike Metals International is reportedly suffering a liquidity crisis that threatens his empire which handles one of every four tons of copper imported into China, according to Bloomberg.

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00: Sept. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 47, prior 49

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A packed week will kick off with a quiet, solemn, start, as the UK is closed for the Queen’s funeral. Japan is also out on holiday. Looking forward, the postponed BoE meeting will nudge its way into an already packed central bank meeting schedule which includes the BoJ, SNB, Riksbank, Norgesbank, and of course, the Fed. Suffice to say, monetary policy will be in focus this week.

On the Fed, market pricing glided toward Matt Luzzetti’s expectations (full FOMC preview here) that the Fed will deliver a 75bp hike next week, having decayed from last week’s peaks after the stronger than expected CPI data. Much closer to consensus PPI and University of Michigan inflation expectations data helped bring pricing back from the peaks, let alone no press reports seemingly confirming pricing one way or another (finishing the week at 79.8bps priced). Regardless, some premium of a 100bp move will probably stay priced in for Wednesday, either on the off chance of some late blackout-period guidance.

Beyond the rate move itself, the new SEP should show unemployment ticking higher, moving farther from a soft-landing forecast. Luzzetti and co. expect the dots will show unemployment ratcheting to 4.5%. The September FOMC also adds another year to the SEP, so we will get figures for 2025, showing how steep a hiking cycle, how deep any recession, and how quick the subsequent recovery policymakers are expecting if their preferred policy path is realized.

On the BoE, our economists expect (full preview here) the MPC to vote for a second consecutive 50bp hike, albeit along divisive lines, with dissents favouring both a 25bp and a 75bp move likely surfacing. On the balance sheet, the MPC should confirm the start of gilt sales from later on this month, totaling GBP 10bn per quarter. Our economists expect the BoE’s terminal rate will be 4%, reached in May of next year, which is a 150bp upgrade over their old forecast.

The Bank of Japan also meets, where our economist expects (full preview here) the BoJ to remain the DM outlier by maintaining an easy policy stance, while agreeing to end their special pandemic funds-supplying operation as scheduled at the end of the month. The policy divergence will continue to weigh on a yen which is around its weakest levels versus the dollar since the early 90s, but our economists do not expect that augurs intervention, as fundamentals are driving the weakening and reduce the chance any intervention is effective.

Geopolitical risks will remain in focus, where the Ukraine war is most front-and-center. Elsewhere, a few conflagrations have broken out in former USSR states which individually may not be macro moving events, but are something to keep an eye on if symptomatic of something broader. Finally, an ever-looming potential issue, President Biden said in an interview with 60 minutes that the US would defend Taiwan if invaded, even as he downplayed the claim as not official US policy.

Overnight in Asia equity markets are trading in negative territory at the start of the week after the US equities ended in the red on Friday. The Kospi (-0.98%) is the largest underperformer across the region followed by the Hang Seng (-0.88%). Over in mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-0.22%) is trading lower while the CSI (-0.11%) is swinging between gains and losses. Elsewhere, as mentioned, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday with no trading in Treasuries until the US session. In overnight trading, US stock futures are pointing to further losses with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.27%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.50%) both edging lower.

A quick recap of last week, which was a reliable microcosm of the major macro stories over the year, namely the war in Ukraine and the central bank battle over inflation.

Ukraine’s successful counter-offensive stoked some optimism early in the week, optimism which faded from risk assets (along with the tightening in global policy paths, more below) as the pathway to peace and an end to the war were not any clearer. That was ossified on Friday with President Putin giving a press conference where he warned about escalating the conflict in so many words. Global equity indices retreated over the week, with the STOXX 600 down -2.89% (-1.58% Friday), the DAX -2.65% lower (-1.66% Friday), and the CAC down -2.17% (-1.31% Friday). Banks proved one bright spot in European equities given the rate selloff, with the Euro Banks index gaining +2.90% despite pulling back -1.88% on Friday. US equities underperformed given the salience of steeper Fed policy post CPI, with the S&P 500 pulling back -4.77% (-0.72% Friday) and the NASDAQ down -5.48% (-0.90% Friday), the worst weekly return for both since mid-June.

The EU’s unveiling of measures to curtail energy price pressures, combined with some national-level efforts, drove European natural gas futures -9.82% lower to close the week at EUR 186.75, the first time they’ve ended a week below EUR 200 since the end of July.

For rates, the main event was the above-consensus US CPI data, which saw a repricing of global policy paths steeper, with 2yr Treasuries gaining +31.1bps (+0.3bps Friday) and 2yr Bunds +20.6bps higher (-0.7bps Friday). Curves flattened in both jurisdictions given the harder-landing implications of such a steep policy path, with 10yr Treasuries up +14.0bps (flat Friday) and Bunds up +5.8bps (-1.4bps Friday). It also coincided with terminal rates pricing higher, where the market is expecting fed funds rates to get up just shy of 4.4% in the spring of next year, albeit below our revised in-house call of terminal closer to 5%.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Subdued tone in holiday thinned conditions, DXY bid & bonds pressured – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 06:33 AM

  • The subdued tone seen across a holiday-thinned APAC session reverberated into Europe; US futures are softer
  • The Dollar regrouped and regained a bid on a combination of technical and positional factors; DXY topped  110.00 but remains shy of Friday’s best
  • Bonds have extended to the downside, WTI and Brent futures have resumed the sell-off, and crypto markets remain pressured
  • US President Biden said US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion
  • Looking ahead, highlights include UN General Assembly and UK Bank Holiday.

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • US President Biden warned Russian President Putin against changing the face of the war by using tactical nuclear or chemical weapons in Ukraine, while he also stated that Ukraine is not losing the war and is making progress in some areas, according to an interview on CBS’s 60 Minutes. Furthermore, President Biden said he warned Chinese President Xi of an investment chill and that it would be a gigantic mistake if China violates sanctions on Russia but noted that there has been no indication that Beijing has provided weapons to Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
  • US Joint Chief of Staff chairman General Milley said during a visit to a military base in Poland that it is still unclear how Russia will react to the battlefield setbacks in Ukraine and now is the time for increased vigilance and preparedness, according to Reuters.
  • IAEA said one of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant’s regular external power lines has been repaired and the plant is receiving electricity directly from the national grid, while it added that although there has not been any recent shelling at or near the plant, it continues to occur in the wider area, according to Reuters.
  • Russia and China have agreed on further cooperating on defence with a focus on joint exercises, according to Interfax cited Russian Security Council.

CHINA-TAIWAN

  • US President Biden said US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, according to Reuters.
  • Taiwan said China continued its military activities around the island and that it detected 20 Chinese aircraft and 5 Chinese ships operating around Taiwan on Saturday, according to Reuters.

OTHER

  • US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Azerbaijani President Aliyev and urged him to adhere to the ceasefire, disengage military forces and work to resolve outstanding issues with Armenia, according to Reuters.
  • US House Speaker Pelosi strongly condemned ‘illegal’ attacks by Azerbaijan on Armenia and said that the attacks must stop, while she added that US influence and leverage should be used to show Armenian sovereignty is a priority, according to Reuters.
  • Azerbaijan called US House Speaker Pelosi’s comments about the Azeri-Armenian conflict “unsubstantiated and unfair”, while it added that such remarks do not serve to strengthen the fragile peace in the region and instead escalate tensions, according to Reuters.
  • Russian President Putin held phone talks with Kyrgyz and Tajik leaders following the border conflict and Putin called on the sides to avoid escalation, as well as take measures to resolve the situation exclusively by peaceful means, according to Reuters.
  • Iran’s Foreign Ministry Kanaani says JCPOA discussions have not been ruled out as a possibility, in the context of Iranian President and delegation attending the UN General Assembly, via Tehran Times – there will be no bilateral meeting between Tehran and Washington in New York.
  • China Ministry of Foreign Affairs says Top China and Russia diplomats have held a meeting on Monday.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • The subdued tone seen across a holiday-thinned APAC session reverberated into Europe, with UK markets closed due to the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II.
  • European cash bourses are lower across the board but off worst levels.
  • European sectors are mostly lower with no overarching theme.
  • US equity futures are softer in tandem with their European counterparts with relatively broad-based losses seen across the main December contracts.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • The Dollar regrouped and regained a bid on a combination of technical and positional factors; DXY topped 110.00 but remains shy of Friday’s best.
  • EUR/USD retreated back under parity, GBP/USD under 1.1400 from a 1.1442 peak.
  • USD/JPY grinds upwards and briefly topped 143.50, whilst antipodeans are the G10 laggards.
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Bonds have extended to the downside after waning from best levels earlier or overnight.
  • Bunds are off a deeper 142.43 Eurex trough and the US 10-year T-note is nearer the base of its 114-12+/114-25+ range.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent futures have resumed the sell-off, in part amid the cautious risk tone/firmer Dollar.
  • Nord Stream AG says it cannot confirm nominations for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline on Monday.
  • Kuwait produces more than 2.8mln bpd and has plans to increase oil output whenever the market needs it, while Kuwait currently produces 650mln cubic feet of gas per day and plans to raise it to 1bln cubic feet, according to Kuwaiti Petroleum Corporation’s CEO, cited by Reuters.
  • Spot gold has been under pressure as the Dollar gained traction, whilst CME copper is softer amid the risk tone
  • Chinese copper tycoon He Jinbi’s Maike Metals International is reportedly suffering a liquidity crisis that threatens his empire which handles one of every four tons of copper imported into China, according to Bloomberg.
  • Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin remained under pressure sub-USD 18,500. Ethereum extended on losses under USD 1,300.

NOTABLE EU HEADLINES

  • UK PM Truss will conduct a bilateral meeting with US President Biden at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday instead of meeting in Downing Street on Sunday, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
  • UK PM Truss agreed with Irish PM Martin that an opportunity exists for the UK and the EU for a negotiated Brexit resolution to the Northern Ireland protocol, according to RTE.
  • UK PM Truss’s chief of staff Fullbrook said he is cooperating with the FBI regarding an investigation into a Conservative Party donor charged with illegally providing campaign donations to a former Puerto Rico governor, although Fullbrook denied any wrongdoing, according to FT.
  • ECB’s Lane said there will probably be several more rate hikes this year and early next year, while he noted signs that inflation will come down but not just yet and said that a recession cannot be ruled out, according to Reuters.
  • ECB’s Nagel said the ECB are ‘a good way off’ from where rates should be and rates will need to rise a lot more to get inflation under control, although is confident that inflation rates will fall after a tough winter, according to Bloomberg.
  • EU is set to withhold EUR 7.5bln of funding from Hungary due to rule of law violations regarding corruption in awarding public contracts, according to FT.
  • EU may ask companies to expand or repurpose production lines, according to European Commission emergency powers to avert supply crisis

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US President Biden said they will get control of inflation and he is more optimistic than he has been in a long time. Biden also said it “remains to be seen” if he will seek a second term and said the COVID pandemic in the US is over, according to Reuters and AFP News Agency.
  • Group of regulators appointed by US President Biden are mulling new rules for dealing with a crisis for large regional banks, according to WSJ.
  • Hurricane Fiona made landfall in Puerto Rico which knocked out power and threatens to cause catastrophic flooding, according to AFP. Furthermore, NHC later announced that Fiona was moving just west of Puerto Rico and heading for the eastern Dominican Republic, according to NHC.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region lacking firm direction amid holiday-quietened conditions and with participants cautious ahead of this week’s slew of central bank policy decisions including from the FOMC, BoE and BoJ.
  • ASX 200 was indecisive after gains in the mining industry were offset by underperformance in tech and defensives, with risk appetite also contained amid further calls for the RBA to hike by 50bps next month.
  • Nikkei 225 was closed due to a domestic holiday.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured by losses in tech and pharmaceuticals, while the mainland was also subdued despite the cities of Chengdu and Dalian lifting lockdowns and the PBoC conducting 14-day reverse repos for the first time since January at a lower rate. Nonetheless, the injection was likely due to the upcoming National Day holidays and the rate cut was not much of a surprise after a similar cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate last month, while geopolitical concerns also lingered following comments from US President Biden that US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with rate kept at 2.00% and injected CNY 10bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate cut to 2.15% (prev. 2.25%) in its first 14-day reverse repo operation since January.
  • China’s Chengdu lifted the lockdown for the entire city and Dalian will also lift the citywide lockdown effective this Monday, according to Bloomberg.
  • China NDRC is seeking to promote an acceleration of the recovery in domestic consumption and speed up the injection of funds to start project construction ASAP. NDRC said the foundation of the economic recovery is still weak despite positive changes in main economic indicators and that external environment for utilising foreign capital is increasingly complex and severe, while it added there remains some factors affecting foreign investment confidence.
  • UBS cut its China 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.0% due to a weak Q3 recovery, according to Bloomberg.
  • China’s Global Times stated that economists urged US regulators to serve market fairness and not let their work be trained with political factors as they are about to begin reviewing audit files of Chinese companies.
  • US tsunami warning system issued a tsunami threat in Taiwan on Sunday morning following a magnitude 7.2 earthquake.
  • Japan’s weather agency issued a special typhoon warning for the Kagoshima prefecture in southern Japan on Saturday, according to Reuters. It was later reported that the typhoon made landfall and millions were told to evacuate homes, according to FT.

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.80 PTS OR 0.35%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 195.73 PTS OR 1.04%    /The Nikkei closed HOLIDAY          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.38%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.0137//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.0185//    /Oil DOWN TO 82.77  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 89.03    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA/TAIWAN

Powerful earthquake, 6.8,  hits Taiwan as many buildings and bridges collapse

(zerohedge)

Powerful Earthquake Shakes Taiwan, Buildings And Bridges Collapse

SUNDAY, SEP 18, 2022 – 11:00 AM

A 6.8 magnitude earthquake rattled much of Taiwan on Sunday, which followed a 6.4 magnitude earthquake Saturday, according to Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau (CWB). 

The magnitude 6.8 quake hit around 2:44 pm local time (0644 GMT), with an epicenter in Taitung county, a town in the eastern part of the island nation. CWB said the quake was recorded at a relatively shallow depth of 7 kilometers (4 miles). 

The US Geological Survey initially reported that the quake registered a 7.2 magnitude but revised it to 6.9 — still a higher reading than CWB’s estimate. 

Tsunami advisories were issued on Sunday after the quake struck along coastlines within a 300-kilometer (186-mile) of Taitung county. The advisories expired without any signs of high waves. 

Videos posted on social media reveal buildings were destroyed, critical infrastructure such as bridges and roads were damaged, and even WaPo reported a train derailed. 

Terrible! #Taiwán es sacudida por un fuerte sismo de 6,8 en la escala de richter. Hay alerta de Tsunami en el mar de Japón. pic.twitter.com/2K9TTGs1sC— Danell Bullon (@DanellBullon) September 18, 2022

Taïwan 🇹🇼 La terre tremble et les immeubles tombent, malheureusement de nombreuses victimes 🪦 sont à prévoir 😢

Il s’agit d’un 3e tremblement de terre en 24 heures.

Le Japon 🇯🇵 émet également une alerte au tsunami.#Earthquake #Temblor #taiwan

pic.twitter.com/ZxhnKICwQ9— RASEK 🐭 (@rasekrasek) September 18, 2022

Another video of a bridge in #Hualien twisted up and dumped on one side.
7.2-magnitude #earthquake strikes off east cost of #Taiwan: USGSpic.twitter.com/HJHFEn3VBi— Chaudhary Parvez (@ChaudharyParvez) September 18, 2022

#MARVEL Aftermath of the powerful 7.2 magnitude earthquake that rocked #Taiwan and prompted a #tsunami threat on Japan’s Miyakojima Island, revealing the scale of destruction. No official information on casualties is available just yet. #earthquake #台湾地震 #臺灣 #地震 #台湾 pic.twitter.com/8bzXUq0xAf— The apprised (@the_apprised) September 18, 2022

An #earthquake Occurred in #Taiwan,#Tsunami Warning Was Issued with a Magnitude of 6.8 Occurred in the Country Hours Before and Caused Destruction.
The island off was hit with another major earthquake on Sun.afternoon,with the shakes toppling a building and derailing train cars. pic.twitter.com/MAZHLNTdgc— JEREMY SONG (@JEREMYSONG750) September 18, 2022

Multiple strong #earthquakes destroyed #Hualien County in #Taiwan on Sunday.
The most devastating one measured 7.2-magnitude.

Tsunami alerts have been issued in Japan’s #Miyakojima and #Yaeyama regions. pic.twitter.com/vUO1LIyRVe— Chaudhary Parvez (@ChaudharyParvez) September 18, 2022

Minute of life…the ceiling of the building collapsed 🏢#Taiwan #earthquake #Tsunami pic.twitter.com/aMJGYkFSyr— Sujoy Basu (@SujoyTechie) September 18, 2022

The good news is that the quake didn’t strike near Taiwan’s nuclear power plants. 

… and now we are waiting for Beijing’s response.

end

As we have indicated in previous commentaries, the pressure is on for China to devalue the Yuan.

(Simon White) 

Pressure On China To Devalue Yuan Becoming More Acute

FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 09:40 PM

By Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

China’s vulnerability to a heavy private-debt load and the collapsing real-estate market increase the risk that the PBOC allows the yuan to weaken further, or that the fixed exchange-rate system with the dollar is dropped altogether.

The dollar is rallying again today, putting pressure on currencies around the world. Of significance, the yuan has breached the widely-watched level of 7 for the first time since 2020.

China has started to push back more heavily against the weakening, with the official yuan fix moving from about 400 pips lower than USD/CNY at last week to 845 pips today.

The PBoC also withdrew yuan liquidity from the market Thursday, as well as last week announcing a reduction in the FX reserve ratio for banks due to take effect today.

But it is getting harder for China to keep gravity at bay for the yuan.

China’s growth model of subsidizing the export-facing state-owned enterprise sector by repressing the household one – a policy reinforced by the pandemic – means that China’s ballooning trade surplus is a sign of weakness, not strength.

In a nominally closed capital-account country, a proxy for capital outflow is given by the difference between FX reserves and the trade surplus. If such a vast surplus was good for growth, we would expect to see FX reserves and deposits rise (even taking account of dollar-devaluation effects to existing reserves).

Instead, both are falling, highlighting that the trade surpluses are triggering a growth slowdown and net capital flight.

This puts pressure on the yuan.

Some of the weakening has been sanctioned by the Chinese authorities, easing some of the negative growth impact from capital outflow. But it is clear they are now trying to push back against the yuan’s decline.

The problem is compounded by the collapse in the real-estate sector. The debt of real-estate companies is down over 60% from last year’s peak. Overall, China has seen a rapid rise in debt over the last ten years, with the cost of servicing it increasing to over 20%, a level that has previously triggered debt crises in other countries.

Also, while the yuan has weakened mostly against the dollar, it has actually strengthened against two of China’s largest trade competitors, Japan and Korea. We may therefore soon see the yuan’s weakness becoming more broad-based, and it also falling against the CFETS FX basket, which has held remarkable steady so far.

To try to avoid a debt-triggered crisis, one lever China can pull is allowing the yuan to weaken further, or even dropping the fixed exchange-rate altogether.

It is one way to stave off the greater evil of widespread unemployment and civil unrest, dangers China could well face if growth continues to fall.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK

GERMANY/ENERGY/

Revolt time is coming near in Germany as angry customers demand explanations as their energy bills soar

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Angry Customers Demand Explanation As German Energy Bills Soar

SATURDAY, SEP 17, 2022 – 09:20 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Utilities in Germany have had to handle a surge in customer service calls in recent weeks from clients angry or desperate about their sky-rocketing energy bills, Reuters reports.

The biggest utility, E.ON, has ramped up its capacity to handle calls from consumers who are shocked to find just how much their energy bills have surged in recent months.

Gas prices in Europe are very high and power prices in many countries, including Germany, have hit record levels this summer after Russia choked pipeline gas supply to Europe and shut down indefinitely the key gas export pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream, at the beginning of this month.

“Some become aggressive out of frustration, others are in tears and need psychological support,” Ingbert Liebing, head of local utilities organization VKU, told Reuters, commenting on the spike in customer calls to utilities’ service centers.

Apart from already high energy bills, German customers will have a surcharge as of October, as part of a government plan to implement a so-called gas levy on consumers in order to help struggling energy firms.

Germany has recently announced it would impose a gas levy on consumers from October 1 through March 2024 as it aims to help energy providers and importers of natural gas, which are struggling with low Russian gas supply and very expensive alternatives to Russian gas. The new natural gas tax is set to cost German families, who will have to foot the bill for the tax, an extra $500 a year. 

Meanwhile, the German government is in talks with the biggest German importer of natural gas, Uniper, to potentially lift its 30% stake in the company to majority participation or to nationalize the firm. The German government agreed in July on a $15 billion bailout package to help the energy giant, which has been reeling from reduced Russian gas supply and soaring prices of non-Russian gas. Under the package, the German government bought a 30% stake in Uniper and made available further capital to help the company.

“The deteriorating operating environment and Uniper’s financial situation have to be taken into account while Fortum, the German government and Uniper continue their discussions on a long-term solution for Uniper,” Uniper’s parent firm, Finland-based Fortum, said in a statement earlier this week.   

END

GERMANY: 

Germany already owns 30% of UNIPER and now talks expand for a complete takeover as energy crisis contagion spreads to other distressed Natural Gas utilities

(zerohedge)

German Takeover Talks Expand As Energy Crisis Contagion Spreads Across More Distressed NatGas Utilities

SATURDAY, SEP 17, 2022 – 07:35 AM

Days after we reported, the German government is in talks to take over troubled natural gas importer Uniper SE. Takeover discussions are allegedly expanding to two other large NatGas importers in a move by the government to prevent a ‘Lehman-style’ collapse in Europe’s largest economy.

Uniper, VNG AG, and Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (formerly Gazprom Germania GmbH) are the three NatGas importers the German government is in advanced takeover talks, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter. 

German officials are mulling over purchasing Fortum Oyj’s controlling stake in Uniper. If that occurs, Uniper would be injected with billions of euros through a capital increase, according to sources.

State ownership of Uniper would dilute the stakes of Uniper’s shareholders. Equity in the distressed utility plunged for a fourth day, down as much as 16% to a record low after the Bloomberg report. 

The people familiar with the talks said nothing concrete had been agreed upon, but a resolution could be reached in the coming days. 

Uniper was doomed when Russian energy giant Gazprom began decreasing NatGas flows on Nord Stream 1 into Europe, forcing it to purchase alternative supplies at record high prices. This caused the utility to achieve losses greater than 100 million euros per day. 

Meanwhile, any deal that Germany takes control of Uniper would mean Finnish state-owned Fortum would want its money back:

“It is very clear that Finland will not agree that Germany could nationalize Uniper without compensation,” Finland’s ownership steering minister Tytti Tuppurainen. “We also maintain that the 8 billion euro financing provided by Fortum to Uniper will still be available to us.”

Uniper, VNG, and SEFE are top NatGas importers critical to the German economy. The move to possibly nationalize shows Berlin’s willingness to provide further support to ensure that none of these utilities fail in the cold season, which could spark a financial crisis that might ripple through Europe. 

When asked about takeover talks of the three companies, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said: 

“Things are complex, we are working it through very carefully.”

Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying about the alleged takeover talks, focusing primarily on Uniper (list provided via Bloomberg):

RBC analyst John Musk struggles to see the benefit for Uniper, sees Fortum benefiting but adds management at the Finnish parent company may need to be held to account for the “disastrous nature of the investment”

  • A coordinated government response would nationalize German energy imports and allow control at a time of crisis, he adds
  • Expects the German government to press on with plans

Jens Zimmermann, Credit Suisse Wealth Management equity analyst, says Uniper shares are plunging “probably because nobody knows at what price it will be nationalized. Nationalization does not mean it has to go to zero,” he says, referring to EDF as a past example

  • He adds Germany’s plans are consistent with its assessment from the start that the companies were not just “too big to fail” but rather “too important to fail”

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, says “it makes sense for the government to take the reins” given how much money it takes to keep them alive 

  • She also questions whether companies like Uniper could ever pay dividends or reimburse the government for their debt

EU benchmark NatGas futures are trading around 206 euros per megawatt-hour. This week, trading has been on a rollercoaster as traders digest various EU plans to ease the energy crisis. For now, prices are flat on the week.

END

EU/

A good article: Is the European union about to rupture

(Malipen/EpochTimes)

Is The European Union About To Rupture?

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Tuomas Malinen via The Epoch Times,

The possible, even likely, collapse of the European economy would inflict some heavy costs to present European institutions. In this entry, Dr. Peter Nyberg and I detail why we believe we are likely to see some rupturing of the European Union (EU) as originally conceived.

This may occur in two ways: Either the European Union disintegrates completely, or it mutates into something unrecognizable to its original purpose. This comment concentrates on some of the factors causing disintegration.

The functioning of the EU has, until recently, been built on two political pillars that now appear to be crumbling. Primarily, German growth has made possible the joint financing (through low-cost debt, the EU budget, and the central banks’ clearing system) of unsuccessful economies without the EU forcing them to commit to politically unacceptable reforms. Beneficent global developments have made possible the concentration on economic integration while going slow on the much more contentious integration of cultural, social, and foreign policies.

The deterioration of the global economy, together with EU policies, now threaten industry and living standards in EU member states, reduce the scope of joint economic support, and force member states to rapidly evaluate their readiness for possibly radical reductions in their political self-determination. This is most evident in Italy.

The yields of Italian sovereign debt have reached levels that can be considered unsustainable, given the country’s high indebtedness and low rate of economic growth. For example, the yield of the Italian 10-year bond breached the 4 percent line late this past week. The maturity structure of Italian debt is also rather unfavorable. At the end of June, for example, Italy had issued only 52 percent of its needs for external financing in 2022. In addition, 35 percent of her outstanding debt will come due already in 2024. Half of her total debt will come due within five years.

Without active country-specific support from the European Central Bank (ECB), which the newly introduced Transmission Protection Instrument is designed to facilitate, Italian debt is unsustainable at current yields. Disagreements among member states on the wisdom of filling the ECB with Italian bonds is bound to weaken the glue keeping the EU together as before.

The energy crisis is also sowing seeds of serious inner conflict. The politics in the EU are becoming less forgiving as difficulties mount.

Contentious Issues Piling Up

Both Hungary and the Czech Republic have objected to the plans for a price cap of Russian gas, which now looks unlikely to be enforced. The European Commission is also planning to cut funding for the Hungarian government of Victor Orban due to “rule-of-law concerns.” This is unlikely to increase the incentives of Hungary to stay in the union. More generally, as funding is made conditional on countries meeting the test of adhering to “European values,” one can expect the list of such essentially political requirements to grow as economic conditions worsen and demands for uniform policies grow.

For example, Poland is fed up with constant extra demands from the EU, like the demand to walk back from the changes Polish government was planning to the judicial system, considering the distribution of funds from the Recovery Fund to its government. Krzysztof Sobolewski, the governing party’s secretary-general, has warned that without a clear change in the actions of Brussels, “We will have no choice but to pull out all the cannons in our arsenal and open fire.” Since a number of contentious decisions still require unanimity, such a threat might be unwise to take lightly.

Fault lines are also emerging regarding the Russia sanctions.

Moderation in this respect, as ultimately needed by Germany and especially Italy, is not readily accepted (and may even attract internal sanctions). Russia naturally uses existing differences to reduce the cohesion of the EU. Reports state that Russia is preparing a first shipment from its new liquefied natural gas plant to Greece. Hungary, as an outlier, is buying additional gas from Russia in accordance with their new agreement. It will be interesting to see what Germany may choose to do if the impact of energy scarcity on its economy and population is as large as some reports suggest.

Besides financially, Italy is also between a “rock and a hard place” on gas issues. While she has been able to cut Russian gas imports from around 40 percent to 15–20 percent, it’s becoming practically impossible to cut them much further. There are serious bottlenecks dictating how much gas can be transferred from south to north Italy. Essentially, only a sufficient Russian gas supply can keep the lights on in the north of Italy, which is also the industrial hub of the country.

Practically, this means that President Vladimir Putin has the ability to push Italy into a deep recession and create yet another economic basket case in the EU. This time Germany may not be able to guarantee the financing needed for saving Italian companies and the nation’s banks. If so, yet another debt crisis may well come ablaze in the eurozone. The question is, will the new government of Italy just sit and wait for this, or will it perhaps insist that the EU or itself negotiate a deal with Russia?

So, how will the EU respond to these threats?

We are assuming that European Commission is at some point encouraged to propose a Recovery Fund 2.0, which would need to be considerably larger than the previous one (of around €800 billion). The fund would provide financing for countries to cope with rising energy prices as well as to help the bond markets of Italy, and others, retain market confidence. The ECB may even be forced to restart quantitative easing while it raises rates. Indeed, this may already be happening, as the balance sheet of the ECB has grown by some €13 billion since mid-August.

The commission is likely to try to gather more power for itself through essentially un-constitutional demands, like the preposterous “mandatory demand cut” for electricity consumption. The commission has no right, legally or otherwise, to prescribe such an action from member states, though reducing demand by itself is a sensible policy at this point and could be the subject of a commission suggestion.

The question remains, will all the member states “play ball” in this and coming issues? We are not so sure.

END

GERMANY

This does not look good for Germany who are already suffering from a shortage of natural gas

Charles Kennedy/OilPrice.com

German Nuclear Power Plant To Shut Down After Reported Leak

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 12:45 PM

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

As Germany desperately attempts to stave off a winter energy crisis, most recently seizing Rosneft refinery assets, a leak at a nuclear plant reported by the country’s Environment Ministry adds to the pressure, with operations now set to be shut in for a week as repairs get underway. 

Germany’s Isar 2 nuclear power plant in Bavaria on Monday reported a leak that will require it to go offline in October for repairs. 

The nuclear plant is already slated for a permanent shutdown at the beginning of next year as part of Germany’s plan to phase out nuclear power. However, given the looming energy crisis in Germany as winter approaches, there has been some discussion of delaying a phase-out of nuclear power. 

The leak at Isar 2 means that a week of repairs in October will be necessary if the power plant is to remain operational beyond December 31stReuters reported, citing the plant’s operator. 

Two weeks ago, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected the idea of extending the country’s use of nuclear power and delaying the phase out of nuclear power plants. Germany’s opposition conservatives have called on the chancellor to keep the country’s two remaining nuclear reactors online. Scholz has resisted this temptation, insisting that the country will have enough energy resources to make it through the winter. 

Under Scholz’s plan the remaining two nuclear reactors will be kept in emergency reserve but will not be producing any power, the Guardian reports. 

Germany solidified its plans to quit nuclear power in 2011.

Under those plans, three reactors were shut down in 2021 and three more this year, with two remaining in the phase-out, including Isar 2. 

The move is increasingly unpopular amid an energy crisis. 

While Germany’s gas storage is now around 87% full, critics argue that Germany’s gas buying spree to fill storage has led to further soaring prices, which also affects neighboring countries. 

EU/ENERGY CRISIS

(Courtesy Irina Slav/Oil Price.com_

The Unintended Consequences Of The EU Energy Emergency Plan

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  • The EU Commission presented an energy crisis emergency plan this week.
  • The plan includes a windfall tax and a framework on capping energy prices in EU member states.
  • The $140 billion windfall tax plan could slow down investment in both oil and gas and renewables.

This week saw the European Commission’s President Ursula von der Leyen do something that would have probably been considered the opposite of democracy just a few years ago. She proposed that governments impose a ceiling on certain energy producers’ revenues and add a windfall profit for Big Oil majors. Called “a solidarity contribution” or “a crisis contribution,” the windfall tax’s aim is the same as the aim of the revenue ceiling: manage energy costs in a runaway inflation environment and get some additional money to, according to the plan, distribute among those who most need it.

Like all grand plans, however, unintended consequences abound with this one, and one of the gravest is the discouragement of oil and gas investments at a time when global oil and gas investments are already lower than they should be in light of demand projections.

JP Morgan’s head of global energy strategy said it this week in an interview with Bloomberg.

“If you’re planning your capital budget, you have to think twice now that you have a new risk,” Malek told Bloomberg.

“It encourages majors to return cash to shareholders as they use that free cashflow that could have been used in investment.”

Per plans, the EU seeks to “raise” some $140 billion from windfall taxes on non-gas electricity generators and oil gas, and coal companies for their “extraordinary record profits benefiting from war and on the back of consumers,” to quote Von der Leyen.

Reaction from the industry was swift. Austria’s OMV said the consequences of such measures could be huge, adding that it was unfair to base the windfall levy proposal on oil companies’ profits from the last three years since these were not normal times, Reuters reported, quoting CEO Alfred Stern.

“We will keep an eye on that, as it can already have a massive impact,” Stern told media, noting, however, that the exact impact was difficult to glean because the proposal has yet to be fleshed out.

Per von der Leyen’s State of the Union speech, in which she listed the windfall tax among measures to cope with the energy crisis, the idea is to tax oil and gas companies with 33 percent of any current-year profits that were 20 percent above the company’s average earnings for the last three years.

OMV’s Stern noted that the last three years included two pandemic years when a lot of companies in the oil and gas industries struggled to stay afloat, let alone post a profit, with oil prices falling as low as $25 per barrel.

“Major oil, gas and coal companies are also making huge profits. So they have to pay a fair share – they have to give a crisis contribution,” the European Commission’s President said in her speech.

If what JP Morgan’s Malek predicts is correct, this would mean less energy security for the future with less new oil and gas production outside Russia. The key, Malek told Bloomberg, was whether the levy would stay for years or be quickly removed once the money was raised.

“It’s not the absolute number, it’s the uncertainty, the unpredictability of this,” he said said.

“There’s a risk this becomes recurring.” 

Von der Leyen has assured the audience of her speech that the additional taxes were “all emergency and temporary measures,” adding that for long-term energy security, the EU needed to reduce its energy consumption.

Reuters noted in its report on OMV’s reaction to the speech that, according to analysts, the most likely targets of the new tax would be refiners in Europe since there is little upstream activity going on in the EU.

Yet integrated energy companies have integrated policies, and an additional tax on European refining may well have an impact on future plans for operations in, say, the Gulf of Mexico.

It’s worth noting that, at the moment, the windfall tax is only a proposal. It is certainly a proposal that comes from a high place, but it has yet to be approved by all EU members. According to an FT report on the topic, not all are on board with all the measures.

The report also quoted S&P Global’s executive director for gas industry in EMA, Laurent Ruseckas, as saying that the proposals put forward by Von der Leyen were “all extraordinarily complex” and “would be impossible to work out and implement in time for winter even if there were political consensus behind them — which there isn’t.”

“It makes sense to agree to EU-wide targets and measures, but without allowing national flexibility on how to get there we risk breaking the markets we’re trying to fix,” a European diplomat told the FT.

All this suggests that Big Oil might yet avoid the additional levy, although given its reputation as the Big Bad in climate change, the additional levy on the industry might be the only measure to receive wide support.

END

GERMANY/BAKERY

Get a load of this bill to a German bakery: E330,000!!!

(zerohedge)

Robert H on the story below:

Robert Hryniak9:13 AM (7 minutes ago)
to

This is how Europe falls in to the abyss, with the destruction of food supply chains shut due to energy costs which are totally unaffordable throwing millions out of work. 

What the doorknobs do not understand is destruction of such supply chains are not restarted at the snap of fingers. Perhaps robots will service lunch, however i suggest it has been tried and failed. So will this crazy business of destruction fail in its’ attempt to remake Europe. 

German Bakery Slapped With €330,000 Gas Bill After Contract Canceled

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 04:15 AM

A German bakery was slapped with a €330,000 (US$330,000) gas bill after a new energy company suddenly terminated their contract which guaranteed pricing until the end of 2023, Junge Freiheit reported, citing Bild.

“Are they crazy?” said owner Eckehard Vatter, who says he has 14 days to pay the bill. “A year ago, we paid €5,856 per month in gas costs for our large furnaces and heating,” he added.

Vatter said his new energy supplier hasn’t given him a reason for the 1,200% price increase.

What’s more, since Vatter’s bakery is considered a ‘craft business’ under commercial law, he can’t receive any support from the state. He claims to have paid €19.9 million in taxes in recent years, according to ReMix.

Almost three weeks ago we noted that shocked Europeans had been posting viral photos of absurdly high energy bills.

Days later, the German government announced a €65 billion relief package to cushion citizens and companies from skyrocketing energy costs. The agreement, which brings total relief to almost 100 billion euros since the start of the Ukraine war, was agreed upon by Germany’s three-way ruling coalition of Scholz’s Social Democrats, the Greens, and the liberal FDP.

Among the headline measures are one-off payments to millions of vulnerable pensioners and a plan to skim off energy firms’ windfall profits. In short, creeping nationalization of the energy sector.

And a couple days after that package was announced, Economy Minister Robert Habeck promised to help small and medium businesses.

“We will open a wide rescue umbrella,” he said during a Sept. 8 speech in Berlin. “We will open it widely so that small and medium enterprises can come under it.”

Unless you’re a bakery classified as a ‘craft business.’

Who could have seen this coming?

END

EUROPE/GERMANY//

Is a European collapse avoidable ?

Inbox

Robert Hryniak11:40 AM (1 hour ago)
to

The Italian 10 year bond yields are flirting with the 4% mark which is thought to represent the line in the sand for the Italian government not being able to cover its finances. What happens when it can not? 

Back in 1924, John Maynard Keynes warned against using sanctions which ”would always run the risk of not being efficacious and not being easily distinguished from acts of war”. He also argued that the globalist economy would eventually stop all wars because their economic cost would become so horrendous. Are we slowly learning that lesson or will we slowly learn that lesson in the coming months? 

Globalization died the day Russia was removed from Swift as a means of TRADE settlement in USD. This destroyed the ability of Russia to sell raw materials in what was normal context of trade settlement. The seizure of USD held outside of Russia showed a complete breakdown in the holdings of USD in external banks in foreign countries and further rendered any USD cash holdings within Russia as valueless. Clearly a serious blow to country wealth and a vivid painted picture for China and other nations. 

What we now see developing quickly is a new order as a challenge to the entire West as trade not just of Russia but of at least 68 countries including India, and China is being converted to national currency swaps to settle trade. Trade is the life blood of not just commerce but banking capital flows. Each dollar of value of settlement removes that value from the Western banking system of business as only country banks partake in the trades putting strain on Credit Default Swaps in Western banks, especially European ones leading to a Collateral Crunch in banks as the  value of most used collateral ( sovereign bonds ) with respect to deposit rates is collapsing. 

Overall economic activity in the West is dropping quickly causing recessive values with no escape hatch while the countries aligned in the SCO and BRIC and related participants have both Eurasia and mutual national currency swaps for trade to hold themselves apart of the contagion caused by the removal of Swift for the Russian trade value with the West which has effectively eliminated that currency rollover velocity affecting both its’ use and need, causing value decline. This is most obvious in the Euro which has declined against the USD. 

With the stoppage of natural gas now a further decline in Euro demand occasions impacting its’ forward value, think futures. And with the seizure of Rosneft refineries in Germany there is no reason for Russian oil to flow and there will be no consideration of value for this ill informed decision and action. Expect oil flow to stop. Russia would be naive to continue to ship oil to seized refineries. This will mean all activity between the Euro zone and Russia will cease other than natural gas supply to Hungary and Slovakia and perhaps some raw mineral sales. However, it is likely that all raw material sales will cease in time. And just as likely Russia has or will rid itself of Euro’s as need for such currency is not required. 

The 64 dollar question is what Europe will do to secure energy supplies. The so called storage gas supplies are meaningless without a means to force that gas out and it is doubtful the means to do so, exist. In any case, the short term looks bleak and it is likely that there will be a continued escalating closure of commerce output as a result. Not withstanding the trillions in margin calls both companies and nations cannot afford to pay. And each trillion paid even by a nation is going to act as a dead weight on the value of the Euro. If the Euro declines to $.60 by September 2023, it will have done well in face of what is occurring. At some point of further value decline the Euro zone will implode as nations cannot cover their finances in force. 

There is no easy roadmap to meander through this storm that has been hoisted upon the world causing many events to occur and develop momentum. However, the first step in developing a roadmap is understanding what has happened and anticipating the impact and fallout of that impact recognizing the inadequacy of governments and politicians to chart a course. 

END

GERMANY

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

War Could Escalate Over Ukraine Terrorist Attacks Inside Russia, Putin Warns

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 11:25 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday warned that Russia could escalate its war in Ukraine in response to “terrorist” attacks against civilian infrastructure inside Russian territory.

Putin has framed his invasion as a limited “special military operation” that could be upgraded into a full-scale war. His government recently rejected calls to mobilize for war, but Putin signaled that there could be some sort of escalation.

“Indeed, we were quite restrained in our response, but that will not last forever,” the Russian leader said at a press conference.

“Recently, Russian Armed Forces delivered a couple of sensitive blows in that area,” Putin added, referring to Russian strikes on Ukrainian power infrastructure that came after Kyiv’s Kharkiv counteroffensive. “If the situation continues like that, our response will be more impactful. Terrorist attacks are a serious matter.

Putin accused Ukraine of attempting to attack nuclear power plants inside Russia. “We even see attempts at perpetrating terrorist attacks in the Russian Federation, including — I am not sure if this was made public — attempts to carry out terrorist attacks near our nuclear facilities, nuclear power plants in the Russian Federation,” he said.

The Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear power Plant inside Ukraine has been the site of frequent shelling, but Putin’s comments were the first time Russia accused Ukrainian forces of attacking a nuclear plant in Russian territory.

The assassination of Darya Dugina in a car bomb attack which may have been meant for her father Alexander Dugin last month, is a prime example of suspected Ukrainian ops inside Russia…

Throughout the war, there have been a series of attacks inside Russia near the Ukrainian border, including operations against oil facilities. On Saturday, Ukrainian shelling was reported in Russia’s Belgorod region. Local authorities said one person was killed and two were wounded.

END

RUSSIA//UKRAINE

Ioan Haboczki on Twitter: “First snow in Ukraine. Carpathian mountains. Winter coming to Western Europe soon, will be very dark and freezing cold 🥶 🥶 🥶 https://t.co/vQSXyAcahx” / Twitter

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:47 AM (1 minute ago)
to

This should be a wake up siren for anyone thinking winter is far off.
If you want to understand the Ukraine then look at the photos of a year ago at night to what they are now and you will see how dark the eastern part is outside of the Donbas.
Meanwhile the 3rd army is in place in the south .. meaning 150,000 real Russian troops with state of the art equipment have been deployed. This is not your Donbas militia. Another 10,000 Chechens have been deployed.
A 4th army group is being formed and will be ready to deploy within 3 months.
A winter campaign may well be forming.
Meanwhile the Pentagon crowd is going to try to freeze the battle lines concerned about what the Russians will do as they are seen unpredictable. There are few people who understand Russian doctrine on the battlefield or how their logistics work.
As it is the theater of war in Asia as China has a upper hand in naval war with live data sharing from Russia effectively making any American effort to come to Taiwan’s rescue a defeat. This comes as a surprise to the Americans.

END

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL//USA

about time!

Nearly 50 Members Of Congress Call On Pentagon To End Military Vaccine Mandate

FRIDAY, SEP 16, 2022 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Nearly 50 Republican lawmakers, led by Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), have called on the Department of Defense (DOD) to withdraw its COVID-19 vaccine mandate for military members, citing concerns over the mandate’s impact on the readiness of the U.S. Armed Forces.

In a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin dated Sept. 15 (pdf), lawmakers, including Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), expressed their “grave concerns” over the impact of the mandate, particularly with regard to the U.S. Army.

“As a result of your mandate, eight percent of the Army’s approximately 1 million soldiers face expulsion, Army recruiters cannot meet their FY22 target, and the Army has cut its projected FY23 end strength by 12,000 soldiers,” they wrote.

Referring to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, lawmakers noted that the U.S. military currently faces “a self-imposed readiness crisis.”

Citing “sparse” data from the Department of Army, they noted that “at least 40,000 National Guardsmen, 20,000 Army Reservists, and at least 15,000 Active Army Soldiers” have not yet received a COVID-19 shot and subsequently face being discharged from service.

“The Department of Defense’s own Covid response page indicates that approximately 900,000 soldiers are fully vaccinated out of the 1 million soldiers in the Army, Army Reserve, and Army National Guard,” they wrote.

Lawmakers pointed to testimony delivered in July by Vice Chief of Staff of the Army, Gen. Joseph Martin, before the House Armed Services Committee. During that testimony, Martin stated that “less than 20,000” people were facing discharge for refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine, much less than the initial figures that officials had provided.

‘Inquiries Remain Unanswered’

However, lawmakers in their letter to the DOD noted that the Army has not published official data pertaining to the number of unvaccinated service members in months.

“The opaqueness of the Department continues to frustrate Members of Congress attempting to perform oversight of the Executive Branch,” they wrote, noting that their “repeated inquiries remain unanswered.”

Republicans also pointed to the “thousands of servicemembers” that “have been left in limbo” while they await a formal judgment regarding their medical exemptions to the vaccine.

“Some have waited for nearly a year to learn if they will be forcibly discharged for their sincerely held religious beliefs or medical concerns,” lawmakers wrote.

“Furthermore, according to current Army policy, even those few soldiers who receive permanent exemptions will be treated as second-class soldiers for the rest of their careers—each of them requires approval from the Undersecretary of the Army to travel, change assignments, or even attend training courses away from their home station,” they wrote.

According to U.S Army fragmentary orders published by Fox News, the Army has barred unvaccinated soldiers from official travel unless they receive the undersecretary’s approval.

“The Department has abused the trust and good faith of loyal servicemembers by handling vaccine exemptions in a sluggish and disingenuous manner,” lawmakers said.

They then questioned who would replace the roughly 75,000 soldiers if they were to be discharged from the Army. Martin said in July that if a shortfall in Army troop size were to persist, it could have an impact on readiness.

A military member prepares a COVID-19 vaccine in Fort Knox, Ky., on Sept. 9, 2021. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images)

Service Member Shortfall

Citing Army Secretary Christine Wormuth’s interview with NBC News earlier this year in which she noted that the Army has only met 52 percent of its recruiting goal for the fiscal year 2022, they asked, “How will it recruit another 75,000 troops beyond its annual target to account for vaccine-related discharges?”

In that same interview, Wormuth said she believes the Army would end up roughly 12,000 to 15,000 recruits short this year.

“The data is now clear. The Department of Defense’s Covid vaccine mandate is deleterious to readiness and the military’s ability to fight and win wars,” lawmakers concluded.

“The vaccine provides negligible benefit to the young, fit members of our Armed Forces, and the mandate’s imposition is clearly affecting the Department’s ability to sustain combat formations and recruit future talent.”

“We urge you to immediately revoke your Covid-19 vaccine mandate for all servicemembers, civilian personnel, and contractors and re-instate those who have already been discharged.”

As of July 1, 2022, under the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate, members of the Army National Guard and U.S. Army Reserve who are not vaccinated and do not have an approved exemption are unable to participate in federally funded drills and training and will not receive pay or retirement credit.

Biden’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate has been in place across the entire military since last year and the White House has defended the move, stating that mass vaccination will help stem the spread of the virus.

The Epoch Times has contacted the Department of Defense for comment.

Read more here…

end

the truth!!

Fauci “Misled Congress” About Gain-Of-Function Research, But ‘Protected By Biden Admin’; Former CDC Chief Says

SATURDAY, SEP 17, 2022 – 08:00 PM

Just last week, Senator Rand Paul appeared on Fox News and slammed Anthony Fauci for taking the default position of trying to “cover up” his activities, including potentially encouraging social media companies to censor medical information.

“I think that all of America should be appalled that America’s doctor, the leading expert on COVID in public health, doesn’t want to divulge information, doesn’t want to divulge his communications with Big Tech,” Paul urged, adding that Fauci’s “modus operandi” is to “cover up”.

A month before that, Senator Paul spoke after first ever Senate hearing on gain of function research, having revealed that there is a committee that is supposed to oversee such experimentation with potentially lethal viruses, but that it is above the oversight of Congress.

“We don’t know the names. We don’t know that they ever meet, and we don’t have any records of their meetings,” the Senator reiterated, adding “It’s top-secret. Congress is not allowed to know. So whether the committee actually exists, we’re uncertain.”

“We do know that they’ve met three times and there are thousands of gain-of-function research proposals. They’ve only met three times, they’ve only reviewed three projects,” Paul continued.

The Senator added that “When Dr. Fauci said, ‘Oh, we’ve reviewed this and the experts have looked at this, and said it’s not gain-of-function,’ even that wasn’t true. There was a committee that was formed after 2017 to look at this dangerous research. They didn’t look at this research at all because they never reviewed it. So no one reviewed this to say it wasn’t gain-of-function research. They didn’t review it, period.”

“So we learned a lot of things, but I think we reconfirmed that Dr. Fauci is not being honest with us,” Paul urged, adding “Yes, the NIH funded gain-of-function research. Yes, it was dangerous. And yes, nobody looked over this. Nobody reviewed the research. Yes, a million people died. And there still seems to be a significant lack of curiosity on the part of Democrats.”

Of course, Fauci shrugged this off as just more ‘vast-right-wing-conspiracy-theory’ or some-such.

But, Dr. Fauci has a problem now… Just The News’ Greg Piper reports that the former Center for Disease Control and Prevention director who was cast as a conspiracy theorist for saying the evidence supported the lab-leak explanation for COVID-19 – allegedly provoking death threats – claims that the real “conspiracy is Collins, Fauci, and the established scientific community.”

Robert Redfield told former Senate Finance Committee investigator Paul Thacker that National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci “knew” he funded gain-of-function research that makes viruses more dangerous, and “misled Congress” when he denied it.”

Rand Paul was right after all… and it wasn’t a vast right wing conspiracy? Shock horror!

“Everyone had to agree to the narrative” pushed by Fauci and then-National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins that SARS-CoV-2 emerged from a “wet market” in Wuhan, not the Fauci-funded Wuhan Institute of Virology miles away, to avoid becoming a public target of the two officials, he said.

Redfield said he believes The Lancet spring 2020 letter that lumped in the lab-leak hypothesis with “conspiracy theories” was “orchestrated … under direction of Fauci and Collins, trying to nip any attempt to have an honest investigation of the pandemic’s origin.”

“There was nothing scientific about that letter. It was just an attempt to intimidate people,” he also said.

“I was threatened, my life was threatened,” he said.

“I have letters I got from prominent scientists, that previously gave me awards, telling me that the best thing I could do for the world was to shoot myself because of what I said.”

He believes that “Fauci and Collins were behind a lot of” the conspiracy and “anti-Asian hate” claims about the lab-leak theory

So, finally, we ask, how has Fauci been able to survive all this (politically, bureaucratically, and freedom-wise)?

Dr.Redflied has the answer – and you won’t like it:

[n]othing’s going to happen as long as the Biden administration is here.”

The part of science, though, remember!

end

Dr Paul Alexander…

Dr. Harvey Risch interview with Steve Deace; the lies about hydroxychlorine remains the biggest lie Fauci & the lockdown lunatics committed; a big difference how COVID impacts at home vs hospitalized

The 3 lies certainly impacted and harmed millions when HCQ/Ivermectin and other outpatient treatments along with appropriate mitigation would have reduced the harm and the deaths.

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 19
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

Source

Steve Deace @SteveDeaceShowDr. Harvey Risch is Professor Emeritus of Epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health. His work has been cited nearly 50k times. He’s also an MD. I asked him what the biggest lie of the last 29 months of COVID has been. Hold onto your butts. September 15th 20223,509 Retweets6,312 Likes

Source

end

Open in browser47 US Congress Members Send Letter to US Secretary of Defense Lloyd ‘DARTH Vader’ Austin: “Drop All Vax Mandates, Reinstate all personnel”; ‘We write to express our grave concern over the effect of
Department of Defense’s Covid-19 vaccine mandate on readiness of our Armed Forces, particularly the U.S. Army. As a result of your mandate, eight % of the Army’s 1 million soldiers face expulsion
Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 19 

▷  LISTENSAVE SOURCESOURCEend32 Canadian doctors died suddenly in last 16 months, all single, double, triple COVID gene vaccinated injected; Canadian doctor Dr. William Makis, writes to Canadian Medical Association to investigate

Let us see if Canadian Medical Association remains silent, for they certainly bowed down to insane Trudeau who disregarded Canadian Health Agencies saying VAX ineffective, NOT needed for travel

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 19 ▷  LISTENSAVE https://substack.com/profile/6106214-lioness-of-judah-ministryend

GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY

Two excellent articles for you:  Brandon Smith and Peter Tchir

Escalation: Recent Events Suggest Mounting Economic Danger

SUNDAY, SEP 18, 2022 – 08:10 AM

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

A common refrain from people who are critical of alternative economists is that we have been predicting crisis for so long that “eventually we will be right.” These are generally people who don’t understand the nature of economic decline – It’s like an avalanche that builds over time, then breaks and quickly escalates as it flows down the mountain. What they don’t grasp is that they are in the middle of an economic collapse RIGHT NOW, and they just can’t see it because they have been acclimated to the presence of the snow and cold.

Economic decline is a process that takes many years, and while you might get an event like the market crash of 1929 or the crash of 2008, these moments of panic are nothing more than the wreckage left behind by the great wave of tumbling ice that everyone should have seen coming far in advance, but they refused.

In 2022 the job of warning people is far easier than it used to be because we are well past the midpoint of the process of decline. But, believe it or not, I still get people today who claim that we analysts are “doom mongers.” The power of willful ignorance is truly amazing. It’s enough to make a person blind to stagflationary crisis, supply chain disruptions, quickly inflating prices, stock market carnage, bond market instability, record consumer debt, and international conflict.

At this point, I think if a person can’t see the dangers ahead they are probably a waste of time and space and are destined to be buried in the ice; there’s nothing that can be done for them. Yes, there are some people out there that don’t get exposed to the information and we have to take them into account, but my priority will be people that are awake and aware and try to give them a sense of what point in the collapse process we find ourselves.

In the past month there has been a considerable uptick in economic and geopolitical activity that suggests we are entering a new phase, and not surprisingly it’s all accumulating right before we hit October.

Here are the events that I find most concerning:

The European Energy Crisis

This is an event that I have been predicting since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and now it is upon us. I wrote about it extensively in my recent article ‘Europe Is Facing Energy Disaster And It’s Going To Bleed Over Into The US’ so I won’t rehash all that information here. What I do want to point out is the complete lack of planning on the part of European officials to deal with the threat. It is as if they WANT a full spectrum disaster.

Russia has now completely cut off natural gas supplies to Europe, which represent around 40% of all EU energy resources. Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices spiked by 28% a week ago, on top of already existing inflation. Oil supplies are also in steep decline for Europe and the EU government has pledged to cut what’s left of Russian oil imports by sea at the end of the year. Sadly, they have offered very little in the way of solutions to the supply-side problem.

There has been talk of increasing imports of alternative resources from other nations, but the EU is already buying up around 75% of all liquid natural gas from the US. OPEC oil producers have indicated they will not be attempting to increase production anytime soon (probably because they can’t due to inflation in operation costs). There is NO backup energy resource for Europe; it doesn’t exist right now.

They will try to buy up whatever coal, oil and gas they can find on the market while driving up prices even more for other countries. They will still come up short, which means people are going to freeze this winter.

Best case scenario is that there are mostly mild temps and people barely scrape buy with minimum heating. But EU industry is going to suffer and many manufacturers are going to cut production (which mean more stress on the global supply chain).

Core Inflation Is Still Rising

As I warned last week in my article ‘It’s A Fact That Needs Repeating: The Federal Reserve Is A Suicide Bomber,’ inflation is continuing to rise despite the Fed’s continued interest rate hikes, giving the central bank even more ammunition to justify higher rates into extreme economic weakness.

The latest CPI print showed an increase to 8.3% and was a shock to markets which universally expected a drop. This is the nature of stagflation – Even with falling demand prices continue to climb or remain high for extended periods. The stagflation event of the 1970s lasted for a decade until the Fed jacked rates to 21% and then employment crumbled in the early 1980s.

This doesn’t mean that rates will go to 21% this time; they don’t need to. All it would take is a Federal Funds Rate of around 4% – 5% to crash our current QE addicted system. A 75 bps rate hike is now widely expected at the next Fed meeting this month, with some predicting a 100 bps hike. This would put us close to crash territory for markets and for employment, though I think we still have well into 2023 before unemployment really starts to spike.

Putin’s Meeting With Xi

As I write this, Vladimir Putin is set to meet with China’s Xi Jinping and the nature of the conference is not clear. There are the obvious points of agreement such as China’s continued purchases of Russian oil and other commodities, as well as the ongoing plan to build a pipeline to China by 2025. There is also strategic cooperation which is evident in the recent naval exercises between the two nations around Japan and Taiwan.

The timing of the meeting is concerning to me, because the prime season for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan is fast approaching (October is the best month for naval movements to avoid typhoons). China would not necessarily need to commit to a ground invasion, either. They could simply cut off all import/export trade from any source other than China and starve Taiwan until they accept unification.

There is also the issue of Ukraine and arms sales. With the amount of propaganda coming from Ukrainian Intelligence and NATO, it’s hard to say what is actually happening, but I suspect Russia is changing strategies and repositioning to deploy missile and artillery bombardment of infrastructure, including power grids and water. This is a tactic that Russia has avoided for months (until this week), which is surprising because one of the first measures usually taken by the US during an invasion is to eliminate most key infrastructure (as we did in Iraq). You would think Russia would have done the same, but perhaps they were saving that scenario for winter when it is harder for Ukraine to cope.

This would make Ukraine essentially unlivable in the coming winter for most of the population. Putin may be seeking to ensure China remains a steady economic partner should geopolitical pressures increase. They may even be making a deal of mutual support: China takes Taiwan while Russia makes Ukraine a resource wasteland and they each support the other economically when NATO counties try to impose sanctions on China. We probably won’t know until October, but the timing of the meeting should raise eyebrows.

If the manure is about to hit the fan in Taiwan along with Ukraine, then diplomatic and economic ties will be severed and western access to China’s manufacturing will be cut. This is a problem for China’s economy, certainly, which may be why they have continued their mass covid lockdowns well after every other government has abandoned them. Could this be practice for civil controls in an impending war environment?

China’s global dominance in imports/exports gives them considerable economic leverage in trade, however. Many nations would not support sanctions against them. Also, their vast holdings of US dollars and Treasuries could be used as a weapon to damage or destroy the dollar’s world reserve status. If China invades Taiwan this year, then all bets are off – The economic decline will move swiftly from that point on.

There are many other trends which factor into the crash environment but the above factors are the most recent and hold the biggest potential for causing a domino effect globally. The question that always arises is “what can we do about it?” Not much in terms of prevention. What we can do, though, is prepare locally to weather the storm. This means stocking necessities before they rise even further in price or become non-existent. Become a producer and learn a valuable skill for survival in a depleted economy Organize with people locally who are on the same page to create security and alternative trade opportunities.

Hopefully, the aware citizenry will rise to the challenge and organization will be extensive, because the worst case scenario would be great masses of completely isolated people all vying against each other rather than working towards mutual security. Even in a slow collapse scenario this is a problem in terms of rising crime; so plan on working with others if you want to avoid inevitable third world conditions.

END

(Peter Tchir)

Deflation, Depression, & Trader Of The Year Awards

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Peter Tchir via AcademySecurities.com,

Maybe it was because the Emmy Awards were presented last week (did you know that Academy’s President, Phil McConkey, in addition to having a Super Bowl ring, has awards for his TV broadcasting?). Or maybe I just couldn’t bear writing about the same arguments as we head into this week’s FOMC meeting. Instead, I decided that we could give out some “Trader of the Year” Awards.

First, the Fed

Here is my latest take on markets, the economy, and the upcoming FOMC meeting:

  • The economy is fragile and we could see a deep (nominal) recession this year. Key drivers would be the inventory build, housing, autos, and wealth destruction as described in more detail in Wake Me Up When September Ends.
  • By the end of this year, deflation will be as big of a concern as inflation.

Nothing in the data (CPI) that came out this week changed my core view. If anything, some of the data and the comments from the FedEx CEO make me more convinced that we are in a precarious situation.

I don’t envy the Fed’s job as the Economy is Complex, but before getting to the awards, I feel obligated to give my opinion on the Fed Meeting:

  • 75 bps is almost certain. 100 bps could be done in a “shock and awe” type of moment, but that seems unlikely. Maybe the Fed will realize that they’ve pushed too hard already and go with 50 bps, but that also seems unlikely (so, we are left with 75 bps). In any event, the size of the hike is the least interesting part of the meeting.
  • Some “nod” to wait and see. Whether he will be hammering home data dependence, answering questions about the lag effects of policy, or addressing more concerns from people about the state of the economy, we could see Powell back down from the tough talk he and the rest of the Fed and central bankers across the globe have been giving us. It cannot be easy to tell an entire nation that you are prepared to sacrifice their jobs in the name of “inflation fighting” when many believe that inflation has peaked. Maybe not a pivot, but a little relief for the stock market bulls.
  • Reshaping Quantitative Tightening. The mortgage market is in disarray (yields keep moving higher as Treasury yields go higher and spreads widen). The Fed does not have enough runoff in their mortgage portfolio to accomplish their stated QT goals and selling bonds into the open market seems problematic. So maybe we could see total QT remain the same, but the emphasis will be shifted to achieving this goal by using Treasuries that are maturing rather than mortgages. It seems like they’ve hinted at some issues and this would be a rational resolution as it would bring the balance sheet down with the least amount of impact to markets. This could be good for mortgages and maybe even for stocks, at least briefly.

Anyways, let’s get to the fun stuff and hand out some hardware.

Top Tick Award – Railway Workers

The railway unions may have top ticked this market beautifully. Shipping costs are going down. There are parts of the freight business experiencing some weakness as companies deal with overbuilt inventories and slowing consumer demand (I believe that retail sales are relatively weak considering last month’s revisions, the ex-auto numbers, and the control group). Did these “insiders” see the writing on the wall and decide that now was a good time to negotiate?

They also managed to capture the moment when people still believe that supply chains are in serious disarray (despite that clearing up).

Finally, the government seemed to be involved in many aspects of this (incumbents don’t like national strikes ahead of elections) and the government seems happy to spend taxpayer money like it isn’t their own (because, I guess, it isn’t).

While many pointed to this deal as a sign of raging inflation, they managed to top tick the market and deserve praise for their savvy trading!

Ounce of Prevention Award – Investment Grade Bond Issuers

According to the Bloomberg league tables, IG bond issuance is 11% below last year’s pace.

I made a quick attempt to scrub the data and it seems that the percentage of bonds issued with maturities longer than 5 years dropped significantly this year compared to last year.

It is almost like corporate America decided to lock in low rates for a long time so they wouldn’t be buffeted by rising rates!

Bravo! A well done and impressive accomplishment, though those of us on the underwriting side (Academy, based on my settings in the Bloomberg league tables for all banks, shows up as #28 in IG) will have our work cut out for us for the rest of this year and next!

Dos Equis Award – Chuck Norris

The Dos Equis “Most Interesting Man in the World Award” goes to Chuck Norris, because presumably he has timed this market perfectly! While many of us have found this market difficult, Chuck Norris captured every major turn to generate 187% YTD returns, with an almost infinite Sharpe ratio.

The number of 5% moves in the Nasdaq 100 seems almost insane. The rapid shifts back and forth have become exhausting. I don’t know how Chuck Norris does it, but there was a lot of money to be made by those (especially those on Twitter) who claimed to get every move right.

Look for more of the same extreme volatility as we head into year end and some try to protect their years, others try to slay it, and some just try to figure out a way to stay alive and do it again next year.

Rocky Balboa Award – Stagflation

Stagflation seems like such a weird state. High inflation but no growth. It is easy to see how it could happen to a small country (i.e., one that isn’t the reserve currency), one that isn’t (in theory) energy independent, or one that doesn’t have much influence. It seems so theoretical, but just like Rocky, this concept won’t go down and stay down.

I do not believe in stagflation (I think that we will see inflation fall off a cliff, along with economic growth), but I cannot discount it. Certainly, this week it felt like stagflation was coming out of its corner, ready to battle away in round 12 with renewed energy.

Oscar the Grouch Award – Most Economic Data

I wanted to give myself this award, but that might have raised some eyebrows on the validity of the awards, so I will give the garbage in, garbage out award to “most of the economic data we currently get.” I find it interesting that ADP, which should have some solid real-time data, revamped its methodology (which could be a step in the right direction). I also included CPI, which I’ve already discussed ad nauseum in previous reports (ditto for jobs data). We live in a world where there is so much real time/accurate data at our fingertips, yet so much of the data that we base business and investment decisions on is of mediocre quality. I think that the entities collecting this data do as good of a job as they can with the resources they are given. However, I’d like to see more changes because we are still trying to keep the data continuous and have the apparent need to seasonally adjust everything so the neophytes don’t panic. Too often the data doesn’t reflect what we “know,” yet we are stuck dealing with the data as presented (at least until it is revised).

I will never forget how part of the Great Financial Crisis felt like a recession, but we were only told by the powers that be 3 months or so after it felt like we were in a recession that we’d actually been in a recession for 3 months. Déjà vu for this year?

The Trinity Award – Stop Loss, Gamma, and Beta

There was a stage in my life when this would have been Jim, Jack, and Johnny. But now, love ‘em or hate ‘em, stop loss and gamma are a powerful combination. With liquidity being low in so many things (from small cap stocks to individual bonds), more investors are turning to beta products (indices, futures, ETFs, portfolio trades, etc.) to manage their risk – giving gamma and stop loss even more power. Without stop loss and gamma, the meme stock thing wouldn’t exist, but it has gone so far beyond that and all we can do is try to be small and nimble because if (when) you get caught in the jaws of stop loss, gamma, and beta, it doesn’t end without some pain.

Only a Flesh Wound Award – Cryptocurrency

You can really admire the Monty Python, “it’s only a flesh wound” attitude of many of the biggest crypto pumpers. We’ve gone from FOMO, HODL, Diamond Hands, Have Fun Staying Poor, etc., to an entirely new level of denial. The latest I’ve seen is “well, this is the Nth time bitcoin has dropped X% and it always comes back much higher!” Say what? I’ve had some silly and even stupid investment theories but that seems like an insane thing to say about an investment. Though I do have to give crypto pumpers credit for creating the non-permanent loss accounting technique. See, if you own crypto and are second guessing the HODL philosophy by questioning which side of the trade will leave you “poor” and aren’t worried as much about being vilified as having “lettuce hands”, you must remember that only “selling” creates a permanent loss (this is true, but possibly too clever).

And yes, many of the more professional crypto players have moved on from crypto to blockchain and NFTs (tokenizing the world), which may well be the wave of the future, but I don’t think that we’ve seen the lows in crypto yet. I’ve heard that crypto yields are now less than T-bills, which figures, because I just finally understood yield farming.

Worst Performance of the Year Award – COVID

The competition for this award was staggering. Putin for his vicious behavior (and for his miserable performance acting out his vicious behavior) is a leading candidate. Terra/Luna, an $80 billion “stable” coin that went poof would also be a contender, but I don’t like piling on. German wind farms are up there (though they have a shot at redemption this winter). COP 22 gets an honorable mention, not just for the irony of how many private jets were used by guests to attend, but more for the fact that some believed the main takeaway was that COP 22 was just a forum for China to tell us what we can do with our greenhouse gases! TSLAQ had another miserable year (that is the hashtag for Tesla haters on social media), but they’ve had so many awful years in a row that they really should be left out of the discussion. The 20-year Treasury managed to outshine every other bond in terms of performance unbecoming an officer. Yes, it has been a bad year for bonds, but the U.S. Treasury 20-year sticks out like a sore thumb on any global chart of yield curves. Finally, central bankers across the globe buying bonds, injecting liquidity, keeping rates low, and repeating the word “transitory” over and over probably deserve a mention, though in hindsight, they were 2021 winners and not this year’s issue (though if they’ve tightened too much, they could be back in contention next year).

I could keep listing more contenders, but let’s get to this year’s winner – COVID (ex-China). Covid had a bad year, much to everyone’s happiness! While China still suffers from lockdowns and COVID continues to infect people across the globe, most of the world has been able to move beyond COVID. Between vaccinations, treatments, awareness, common sense, and more, we have been able to turn COVID from a nightmare into “just” a concern. Giving the worst performance of the year to COVID might be one of the happier things I’ve been able to do!

Bottom Line

Brace for more volatility and be nimble and adapt to information as it comes in.

We know that the start of this week will focus on the FOMC meeting, but we also know that by Friday the market will have identified two or three new things as the “must watch” market and economic indicators.

Thanks again for all your support and let’s plow through the rest of this year and next year (and beyond) together!

end

Paul Alexander..

URGENT: Dr. Mike Yeadon, former Pfizer Vice President, talks with Dr. Paul Elias Alexander on fraud of the COVID pandemic & deaths caused by the response & COVID gene injection, September 17, 2022

Drs. Mike Yeadon and Paul Alexander: fraud of the COVID pandemic and Dr. Yeadon advances and UPDATED theory on the pathogen and what we have and are facing e.g. digital IDs, passports etc.

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 19
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

SOURCE:

https://rumble.com/v1kigj1-drs.-mike-yeadon-and-paul-alexander-fraud-of-the-covid-pandemic.html

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

MUST SEE ALEX JONES INTERVIEW: Covid Jab Is A Bioweapon, Says Former Health & Human Services Advisor to Trump, Dr. Paul E. Alexander; stop the COVID vaccine NOW! No healthy child has died of COVID

Make no changes; if you asked me to create a weapon, a bioweapon to harm & slow kill populations, I would bring these exact harmful, ineffective non-neutralizing COVID gene injections

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 16
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

Video SOURCE

end

No sane nation would do what the US is currently doing, INVADING itself at southern border, exposing Americans to known & unknown risk, we are building our own funeral pyres; Martha’s Vineyard, Tucker

If you cannot at the point of entry conduct vetting & fully assess the people coming in as ‘illegals, you cannot let them in, ‘UNTIL’ they come back for their hearings; morons, they will not come back

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 16
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

One of the best Tucker monologues on the 50 illegals who were sent to Martha’s Vineyard by DeSantis, now this I like. People must be treated humanely and no mishandling or bad treatment, at no time. This is America yet let us see how the Martha’s Vineyard crowd reacts, and Ron should send 100,000 there.

SOURCE

end

Open in browser

3 million illegals allowed into US by Biden this year 2022; yet 50 illegals sent to Martha’s Vineyard now evicted, tossed out, billionaires soiled pants; sent now to Cape Cod military base by ferry

Obama, take them in, hypocrite! Martha’s Vineyard ship 50 illegal migrants to Cape Cod military base by ferry, as National Guard are called in over ‘humanitarian emergency’, with 50? send 100,000 now

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 17
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

This is an invasion of America, the United States is invading itself. Imagine that! The POTUS of USA, Biden, is invading his own country and getting away with it, invading us with rapists, murderers, drug pushers etc. Terrorists are in those illegals. Everyone knows this.

Do not count on Republicans to help here, they are a uniparty…if this is not stopped, America is done!

‘Martha’s Vineyard ships 50 illegal migrants to Cape Cod military base by ferry, as National Guard are called in over ‘humanitarian emergency’, after Gov. DeSantis’ sent them to billionaire haven’

  • The 50 migrants who were flown into the affluent island by Gov. Ron DeSantis are now being moved to a military base 32 miles away
  • It sparked a widespread cry of outrage from the liberal leaders of the small island in Massachusetts who branded the move ‘inhumane’ 
  • Gov. Charlie Baker announced the decision to transfer the illegal immigrants less than 48 hours after they touched down
  • DeSantis accused critics of his move to fly migrants to Martha’s Vineyard of ‘virtue signaling’, saying their concern for the welfare of the migrants was a ‘fraud’ 

SOURCE:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11219897/Marthas-Vineyard-migrants-moved-billionaire-enclave-Cape-Cod-military-base.html

end

“Hydroxychloroquine blocks SARS-CoV-2 entry into the endocytic pathway in mammalian cell culture”; this study needs clinical research but in a crisis, with ‘precautionary principle’, we use it

If a drug has been shown to be prior safe & effective, is available, not harmful, regardless if used for other purposes, with reports of benefit & you have & had nothing available, then you use it

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 17
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

If there was no alternatives, nothing, it was safe and effective all along, and clinical reports were showing it was highly effective, then why was this drug blocked? Why were the proper studies not done and still, in a crisis, in an emergency, we can mount those studies while we use a therapeutic, empirically, in an emergency, precautionary principle; when there is a threat of harm and nothing is available, you use what suggests works and can work and also is not harmful and not prohibitively expensive etc.; turns out it was blocked and still the NIH and CDC have never, to this date, studied the role of HCQ in COVID…and most studies done were corrupted and designed to fail. Wrong patient group, dose, timing of administration etc. Just pure corruption.

SOURCE

END

VACCINE IMPACT/

SMOKING GUN! Alleged RAND Corporation Leaked Document Written BEFORE Ukraine War Shows U.S. Planned the European Energy Crisis and Economic Collapse to Save the U.S. Economy

September 17, 2022 4:50 pm

Nya Dagbladet, a Swedish online daily newspaper, claims to have obtained an internal leaked document from the U.S. military think tank RAND Corporation that was published on January 25, 2022, about 1 month before Russia invaded Ukraine. The “Research Report” stated that a weakened Germany and weakened Europe would strengthen the U.S. economy by having them get involved in sanctions against Russia as a result of the Ukraine conflict, which would cut off their energy supplies and collapse their economy. The report begins: “The present state of the U.S. economy does not suggest that it can function without financial and material support from external sources. The quantitative easing policy, which the Fed has resorted to regularly in recent years, as well as the uncontrolled issue of cash during the 2020 and 2021 COVID lockdowns, have led to a sharp increase in the external debt and an increase in the dollar supply. The continuing deterioration of the economic situation is likely to lead to a loss in the position of the Democratic Party in Congress and the Senate in the forthcoming elections to be held in November 2022. The impeachment of the President cannot be ruled out under these circumstances, which must be avoided at all costs. There is an urgent need for resources to flow into the national economy, especially the banking system. Only European countries bound by EU and NATO commitments will be able to provide them without significant military and political costs for us.” It goes on to state that Germany is the key European country that needed to be toppled economically for “an increase in the flow of resources from Europe to the U.S.” The document outlines how to do this, namely by drawing Germany and Europe into the Ukraine conflict by participating in sanctions against Russia that would cut off the flow of cheap energy from Russia. This “Research Report” was distributed to the White House Chief of Staff, the Department of State, the CIA, the NSA, and the Democratic National Committee, one month before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY/

Woman Escapes COVID-19 Hospital Treatment Protocols, Says Others Not So Lucky

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:01 AM (1 hour ago)
to

Insanity
https://www.theepochtimes.com/hospital-holocaust-woman-escapes-covid-19-hospital-treatment-protocols-says-others-not-so-lucky_4728030.html

Confirmed for First Time: Vaccines Cause Myocarditis Deaths, Says Oxford Study

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello8:16 AM (12 minutes ago)
to me

Confirmed for First Time: Vaccines Cause Myocarditis Deaths, Says Oxford Study
https://link.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/confirmed-for-first-time-vaccines-cause-myocarditis-deaths-says-oxford-study_4734480.html

END

/VACCINE IMPACT

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

AUSTRALIA

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.99920 DOWN   0.0021 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED 

USA/ YEN 143.60   UP .799 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1378 DOWN   0.0030

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 10.80 PTS OR 0.35%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 195.73 PTS OR 1.04%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.51%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 195.73 PTS OR 1.04% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.80 PTS OR 0.35% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.38% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED //HOLIDAY

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1662.00

silver:$19.33

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 109.71  UP 20  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.84% UP 5  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.250% UP 0    AND 1/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.93%// UP 3  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.05  UP 3   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.79% UP 5 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0006 DOWN  .0006   or 6 basis points

USA/Japan: 143.29 UP .469 OR YEN UP 47 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1403DOWN .0005 OR 5 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0037 OR 37 BASIS pts  to 1.3292

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 7.0067 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.0101

TURKISH LIRA:  18.29  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.249

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  3.469% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.498  DOWN 2  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 109.53 UP 2 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 45.39 PTS OR  0.62%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 30.40 POINTS OR 0.63%

Paris CAC CLOSED  DOWN 4.48 PTS OR 0.07% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 24.340 OR  0.31%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 62,55PTS OR  0.28%

WTI Oil price 86.08  12: EST

Brent Oil:  92.00   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  60.16  DOWN 0  AND 1/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.79

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0023 UP .0010     OR  10 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1434 UP  .0027 or  27 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.22 UP .420//YEN DOWN 42 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3255 UP 0.0001  (CDN dollar, DOWN 1 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 85,27

Brent OIL:  91.37

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.490 UP 4 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.510  DOWN 1 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.28

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.16  UP 0 AND   11/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 197.26 PTS OR 0.64 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 91.90 PTS OR 0.77%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.75 DOWN 0.55 PTS (2.09)%

GLD: $155.96 UP 0.12 OR 0.08%

SLV/ $17.99 UP 0 CENTS OR 0%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bitcoin & Big-Tech Dump’n’Pump As Yield Curve Inversion Accelerates Ahead Of Fed

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 04:01 PM

The usual post-OpEx bid tried its best but the event risk around this week’s FOMC meeting likely removed some vol-selling pressure as traders derisked to some extent.

Not much macro but homebuilder sentiment in the US tumbled for the 9th straight month – its longest losing streak since 1985.

Rate-hike expectations continue to rise into this week’s Fed meeting… and so do the implied-recession odds as 2023 rate-cut expectations rise…

Source: Bloomberg

The odds of a 100bps hike this week slipped to 20% but the odds of a subsequent 75bps hike in Nov (after this week’s implicit 75bps hike) rose to 80%.

Stocks were weaker overnight (dumped at the Asia open and at the European open), then panic-bid at the US cash open, gave all that back into the European close then caught a miraculous bid shortly after 1430ET (margin call time) lifting everything green…

Something odd happened at around the time the equity market went into melt-up mode – a spurious spike hit the VIX…

The S&P 500 closed at 3899.90 as the 3900 gamma trap was laser-beamed…

Vaccine makers were spanked today after President Biden unilaterally declared the pandemic is over…

Source: Bloomberg

Seems like The Fed is not a worry at all… or will this happen?

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1571707163726290944&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fyield-curve-inversion-accelerates-stocks-flat-crypto-clubbed-ahead-fed&sessionId=e9ce195b7f86e6768ec12733160cf202b5842701&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

Treasuries were mixed today with the long-end bid (30Y -1bps) while the short-end was dumped more (2Y +8bps). Note many markets closed overnight (UK for Queen’s funeral)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yield jumped back above 3.50% for the first time since April 2011, before fading back…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which saw the yield curve (2s30s in this case) invert even deeper…

Source: Bloomberg

Real rates continued to scream higher, with 5Y back at its highest level since August 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

Which implies considerably more pain ahead for equity valuations…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar trod water again today, unable to extend after last week’s CPI surge…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore Yuan tumbled early in the Asia session (despite yet another strong yuan fix)

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal overnight as Asia opened (with 3 big down-legs). But, beginning around 6amET, buyers returned and pushed Bitcoin back above $19,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably Ethereum’s freefall relative to Bitcoin stalled today at what could be support…

Source: Bloomberg

Crazy day in crude trading today with WTI tumbling from $86 to an $81 handle beforee ripping back above $85…

Gold tested Friday’s lows but bounced again to end unchanged…

Finally, the S&P has now traded below its key 200DMA for 110 straight days – the longest streak since the bear markets of 2008-2009 and 2000-2002. Bespoke strategists wrote in a note Friday. “It’s going to be hard to get too excited until the S&P moves back above its 200-day moving average.”

Source: Bloomberg

“There’s an awful lot of really challenging things being thrown at the market,” John Porter, CIO and head of equities at Newton Investment Management, said in an interview. “I’ve been in this industry for more than 25 years and I think the investment environment we’re in right now is one of the most complicated or complex environments I’ve seen in my entire career.”

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//

END

THIS AFTERNOON

ii) USA DATA//

U.S. home builder sentiment falls for ninth straight month in September

WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) – Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders fell for the ninth straight month in September as soaring mortgage rates and persistently high prices for building materials made new housing less affordable for many first-time buyers.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index dropped three points to 46 this month. Discounting the plunge during the spring of 2020 when the economy was reeling from the first wave of COVID-19, this was the lowest reading since May 2014. A reading below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor rather than good.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 47.

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy tightening has had a significant impact on the housing market, compared to the labor market and consumer spending, where demand remains fairly strong.

The U.S. central bank is expected to raise its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday for the third time since June. Since March, the Fed has lifted that rate from near zero to its current range of 2.25% to 2.50%.

Mortgage rates have surged even higher. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.02% last week from 5.89% in the prior week, breaking above 6% for the first time since November 2008, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.

“Buyer traffic is weak in many markets as more consumers remain on the sidelines due to high mortgage rates and home prices that are putting a new home purchase out of financial reach for many households,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter.

“In another indicator of a weakening market, 24% of builders reported reducing home prices, up from 19% last month.”

The NAHB also noted that endless disruptions in the supply chain for building materials continued to take a toll, adding that “more than half of the builders in our survey reported using incentives to bolster sales, including mortgage rate buydowns, free amenities and price reductions.”

The survey’s measure of current sales conditions slipped three points to 54. Its gauge of sales expectations over the next six months dipped one point to 46. The component measuring traffic of prospective buyers fell one point to 31.

Data from the Commerce Department on Tuesday is expected to show housing starts little changed in August as rising rents boost the construction of multi-family housing units, offsetting the drag from the single-family housing segment.

According to a Reuters survey, housing starts likely slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.445 million units last month from a pace of 1.446 million units in July.

Permits for future home construction are, however, expected to have declined to a rate of 1.610 million units from a pace of 1.685 million units in July.

“It looks clear that higher rates have been weighing on the housing market, and we continue to see weak trends across many of the related recent reports,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

-END-

German 10-year yield touches new high before Fed meeting

Sept 19 (Reuters) – Euro zone government bond yields rose on Monday as investors prepared for another large U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike and several other central bank meetings this week.

The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 75 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, while markets are pricing in around a 20% chance of a 100 bps hike in a bid to tame inflation.

“Investors’ focus will be on the new (Fed’s) dot plot of interest-rate projections,” Francesco Maria Di Bella, fixed income strategist at UniCredit, said.

The Bank of Japan and Bank of England also meet this week.

Germany’s 10-year yield, the benchmark of the bloc, rose to a new high since mid-June at 1.818% and was up 3 bps to 1.80% by 1443 GMT.

European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane added to the hawkish sentiment by saying it could raise interest rates next year, causing pain for consumers as it tries to depress demand that is adding to sky-high inflation.

“While ECB terminal rate expectations are already flirting with 2.75% by May, the short-end looks set to remain under pressure with ECB members suggesting that a mild recession will not stand in the way of several more major tightening steps,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note to clients.

Germany’s 2-year yield, more sensitive to rate hikes, rose as high as 1.614%, nearing an 11-year high of 1.62% hit last Friday.

“We expect the spread between U.S. and German 10- year yields to fall towards 150 bps in the next few months as the ECB started its tightening path later than the Fed,” UniCredit’s Di Bella added.

The gap was around 169 bps on Monday.

Analysts said a so-called “curve flattening bias” remained intact. This means longer-dated bond yields are falling faster or rising slower than shorter- dated ones, signalling investor caution about the economic outlook.

The gap between 2- and 10-year German yields was at 20 bps, after hitting its narrowest since January 2021 at 16.3 bps last week, when the gap between 10- and 30-year yields inverted for the first time on record.

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield also rose to a fresh 3-month high at 4.12%, with the spread between Italian and German 10-year yields last unchanged at around 226 bps ahead of general elections due on Sept. 25.

The absence of the anti-euro rhetoric seen in the 2018 election has reassured investors, but pressure on bonds could build as focus shifts to budget policy in 2023.

Meanwhile, Spain hired a syndicate of banks to sell a new 20-year bond, a lead manager memo seen by Reuters shows.

It will be launched “in the near future subject to market conditions,” the memo said, a phrase debt management offices usually use a day before issuance.

iii)USA economic commentaries

Goldman Sachs lashes its forecast for USA GDP to zero growth!

(zerohedge)

Goldman Slashes US GDP Forecast, Now Sees 0% Growth, “Mild Recession” Driven By Fed’s Intention To Punish Economy

SATURDAY, SEP 17, 2022 – 02:00 PM

It was almost exactly one year ago that Goldman took a scalpel to its heretofore euphoric 2022 GDP forecasts, which among other things saw the bank’s Q1 and Q2 2022 GDP estimates cut from 5.0% and 4.5% to 4.5% and 4.0% respectively, and forecast full year 2022 GDP would be 4.0% (down from 4.4% previously).

Yet despite the “big” cut, which Goldman attributed to “fiscal drag and slowing consumer spending” the bank still expected brisk mid-single digit growth because the hilariously wrong concept of ” excess savings” (alongside “”transitory inflation”) would fuel consumption for much of 2022. We disagreed completely, writing the following last October:

… one area where we disagree profoundly with Goldman is the bank’s generous modeling of an upside boost to growth from “pent-up savings” which the bank expects to offset a substantial portion of the fiscal hit. As we will show in a subsequent post, the excess savings – in as much as they still exist – mostly benefit the top 1%, with the bulk of the population benefiting from only 30% of the total accumulated amount. As such the contribution to consumption from excess savings will end up being far smaller than most Wall Street strategists predict (since the propensity of the top 1% to spend their savings which are instead invested in the market, is far less than the broader population).

We concluded saying that as a result, reader should “expect even more aggressive cuts to GDP growth in coming quarters – from both Goldman and its peers – even as inflation continues to rise, cementing a painful period of non-transitory stagflation for the US as the mid-term elections approach.

What happened then? Well, Q1 GDP was negative (vs Goldman’s 4.5% estimate), Q2 GDP was negative (vs Goldman’s 4.0% estimate), and the Atlanta Fed just slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to below 1% and look likely to push it below zero in the coming days. But don’t call it a recession: “special economic operation” please. And yes, our major warning to Goldman’s Oct 2021 GDP haircut was 100% correct as the US is now in a painful stagflation with inflation still soaring, economic growth sliding, and most banks tripping over themselves to slash their GDP forecasts monthly if not weekly.

Which brings us to today, and – drumroll – Goldman’ latest trim of its GDP estimate which is a far, far cry from what the bank expected less than a year ago.

In a note published by Goldman’s Jan Hatzius, the chief economist who was dead wrong last year with his overly optimistic GDP forecast (not to mention repeated calls for “transitory inflation”) writes that he has raised his fed funds rate forecast by 75bp over the last two weeks, and now expect that the FOMC will hike by 75bp in September, 50bp in November, and 50bp in December to reach the bank’s terminal rate forecast of 4-4.25% by the end of 2022 (other banks have this rising as much as 5.0%). And in keeping with the Fed’s stated intention of crashing the economy, Hatzius writes that “this higher rates path combined with recent tightening in financial conditions implies a somewhat worse outlook for growth and employment next year.”

As such, the bank is therefore slashing its ur GDP forecasts, and while it still forecasts GDP growth of +1.1%/+1.0% in 2022Q3/Q4 and 0% GDP growth in 2022 on a Q4/Q4 basis – in other words stagnation – it now expects GDP growth of:

  • Q1 2023 of 0.75% vs 1.25% previously
  • Q2 2023 of  1.00% vs 1.5% previously
  • Q3 2023 of 1.25% vs 1.50% previously
  • Q4 2023 of 1.25% vs 1.75% previously

… and just +1.1% growth for the full year 2023 on a Q4/Q4 basis (vs. +1.5% previously).

Following these changes, Goldman proudly boasts that its growth forecast is slightly below consensus (if only the bank could also reach out to its version from a year ago and tell it – as we did at the time – just how terribly wrong its then above consensus forecast would be), and implies a below-potential growth trajectory – which after all the Fed is pursuing – that Goldman believes is necessary to cool wage and price inflation.

Oh and yes, having perhaps learned from its mistakes, the bank is also raising its unemployment rate forecasts to reflect the lower growth path, and now expects the unemployment rate will move sideways to 3.7% by end-2022 (vs. 3.6% previously) before rising to 4.1% by end-2023 (vs. 3.8% previously) and 4.2% by end-2024 (vs. 4.0% previously).

In summary, Goldman says that while a recession is now inevitable, it will be “mild”, which of course is the “transitory inflation” bullshit spouted by every card-carrying and wrong economist last year. There will be nothing mild about the coming recession.

On its own, the higher rates path and lower growth trajectory imply higher odds of a recession, although the increase in recession risk is partially offset by an improving outlook for goods inflation and recent declines in inflation expectations that lower the chances that the Fed will hike aggressively enough to cause a recession. In addition, strong household balance sheets and an improving outlook for real income limit the odds that the economy will slip into a recession in the near-term and are part of the reason why we expect that any post-covid US recession would likely be mild. Nevertheless, on net we see somewhat higher risks of a recession following our forecast changes, and are therefore raising our odds of a recession in the next 12 months to 35%.

Bottom line: we “applaud” Goldman for again predicting that the Fed will achieve its stated goal of pushing the US into a recession (one year ago, the bank forecast 4% GDP growth, also in line with the Fed’s goal of a soft landing). And, of course, just like last year, Goldman will be dead wrong because not only is the US economy already in a brutal stagflation, but US growth will be deeply negative as soon as early 2023 when unemployment will soar and the economy will collapse, in keeping with FedEx’s shocking warning that a global recession has begun. As such we now look for Goldman’s next – and fare more realistic – GDP cut, one which will see quarterly “growth” for most of 2023 contract by 2%, 3% or more… which will serve as the moment to go long with all margin available as that’s when the Fed will finally realize that the recession its unleashed is anything but “controlled” and could well match the collapse of 2008. That’s when Powell & Co will panic, and as Mike Hartnett has taught us so well over the years, “markets stop panicking and when central planners start.”end
Martha Vineyard’s escapade proves leftist hypocrisy on illegal immigration(zerohedge)

Martha’s Vineyard Proves Leftist Hypocrisy On Illegal Immigration

SATURDAY, SEP 17, 2022 – 05:00 PM

As if there wasn’t enough evidence already, the political left’s duplicity on how to handle illegal immigration is now a matter of obvious historic record.  For decades open border proponents have argued that America is a nation “built by immigrants” and that if we seek to control our own borders we are essentially abandoning our national heritage.  A rather interesting talking point from people that generally hate America and want to dismantle every aspect of our heritage.

Also, America is a nation built by explorers and colonists first, and LEGAL immigrants second.  

The humanitarian image of leftists is often used as a shield to protect them from dealing with logical and rational arguments on economic practicality.  They will claim that it “doesn’t matter” if our system cannot continue to sustain millions of migrants pouring across the border every year; we “have to find a way” because it’s the “right thing to do.”  The notion of the soul searching, empathetic progressive taking on the inequities of the world like some new age Mother Theresa willing to give the shirt off their back is a complete fraud, and the events at Martha’s Vineyard prove it.

This week Florida Governor Ron DeSantis opted to follow the example of Texas Governor Greg Abbott and begin his own program of migrant relocation, flying them straight to the affluent backyard of open border advocates like Barack Obama.  The island is also the vacation destination for numerous corporate elitists including Bill Gates.  

We have seen the clear results of the migrant busing strategy in New York and Washington DC, where Democrat Mayors are scrambling to deal with the influx of a mere 10,000 total immigrants.  DC Mayor Muriel Bowser even asked that the federal government intervene and allow the national guard to take over the handling of the situation (the request was denied).  New York Mayor Eric Adams complained that illegal immigrants were a “burden” on his city.

The shelter systems in both cities are overwhelmed and they don’t have the capacity to maintain aid.  Keep in mind, this is due to a tiny fraction of the migrants that border towns in states like Texas deal with annually.  

Of course, leftists refuse to acknowledge the lesson they are being taught here.  Instead of recognizing the folly of Biden’s continued open border measures that essentially reward non-citizens that illegally invade with long term residency in the US, democrats have instead decided the best option is to attack conservative states as being “monstrous” for “using people as political pawns.”  Set aside the fact that this is exactly what leftists have been doing for some time, and the fact that Biden has been relocating migrants across the US since he entered office.

You see, the political left is perfectly fine with relocation and strategically implanting migrants into specific area of the country, but only if THEY get to choose the locations.  They do not like that their tactics are now being used against them  

Officials in Martha’s Vineyard put on quite the song-and-dance theatrics for the media cameras when the 50 DeSantis migrants showed up on their doorstep.  They pontificated about taking care of the less fortunate and leaving the door open to helping others in need.  They even fed the migrants, unloading hot meals from vans and trucks as the media recorded everything carefully.  But, their hospitality only lasted for a day and everything changed.  

Martha’s Vineyard is now busing most or all of the migrants off of the island and sending them to Cape Cod Military Base.  So much for the well publicized image of the humanitarian left.  They don’t want to take care of these people either. 

The media is adding spin to the relocation news, suggesting that the move is “voluntary.” However, it would be interesting to see what would happen if the migrants actually refused to leave.  Would they really be allowed to stay in the resort town for the ultra rich?  Or, would they be quietly kicked out and told to never come back?  It is doubtful that the relocations from Martha’s Vineyard are optional.

The true face of open border ideology is one of exploitation for political gain.  Democrats have been consistently hostile towards any attempts at state voter ID laws for a reason – They hope to use illegal immigrants as a battering ram to destabilize our existing culture and also as a voting pool that would make them impossible to remove from office in the near future.  They have sought to purchase votes indirectly by offering citizenship in exchange for loyalty.  In other words, they let the illegals in, block voter identification, and then say “vote for us or the conservatives will kick you out.”

And yet, here they are, kicking the same migrants from their precious enclaves like Martha’s Vineyard.  Leftists want conservatives to deal with the consequences of their border politics.  The second they have to deal with the consequences, suddenly the relocation of migrants is a travesty and a governmental emergency.  The hypocrisy of the left is endless. 

END

‘Perfect Storm’ Strikes But Governments Continue To Spend As If Nothing Has Changed

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 03:40 PM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

For the first time in decades, central banks are tightening their monetary policy while governments continue to spend money as if nothing has changed. Large enterprises are not harmed by the most recent rate increases as long as credit conditions are still lax. However, households and small enterprises are bearing the full weight of the financial squeeze.

The current level of mortgage rates in the US is the highest since 2008. According to Reuters, the average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage hit 6.02% last week.

A perfect storm of declining sales and increased finance costs hurts small enterprises. While retail sales rose 0.3% in August, the data for July was corrected to indicate a 0.4% decline in sales. In addition, after July’s numbers were negatively revised, core retail sales were unchanged in August. This indicates a sharp decline in sales in real terms. Since official retail sales aren’t inflation-adjusted, August’s 9.1% increase over the prior year was actually flat.

In order to combat inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates and moderated liquidity requirements, which continue to have an impact on consumers but have no appreciable effect on government expenditure.

Government expenditure continues despite the Federal Reserve’s excessive lag.

For seventeen months, inflation has exceeded the Federal Reserve’s target, and increased expenditure by the government only fuels the fire. Core inflation continues to rise.

When the money supply is completely absorbed by new government debt and public deficit spending is kept at record high levels, rate increases are insufficient. Because of this, yearly inflation is still at a three-decade high of 8.3%. Furthermore, core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose to 6.3% in August. This month-over-month growth of 0.6% exceeded economists’ predictions by a factor of two.

According to analysts, inflation is decreasing and, based on consensus projections, will reach 4% or less in 2023. But if all goes according to plan, that means that in two years, consumers and businesses will see cumulative inflation of at least 12%.

Also keep in mind that since March, shipping rates and commodity prices have corrected, which brings us to these poor August numbers.

Because stocks and bonds are declining, market participants are pleading with central banks to change course. An investor base that has not seen tight monetary policies in more than ten years becomes more worried. Governments are also growing more concerned about rising public debt yields.

Governments like low rates because they profit from both, even if inflation surges.

A stagflation like to the 1970s is considerably more likely if central banks alter their approach and stop raising interest rates while governments implement so-called “anti-inflation measures” that entail increasing debt, expenditure, and currency creation.

There isn’t a magic bullet for inflation. It is quite simple to start and extremely challenging to stop. Governments will continue to introduce new aid initiatives that fuel inflationary pressures if they have a financial motive to grow their debt.

The notion of cost-push inflation is disproved by rising core inflation. The majority of goods and services would see flat or declining pricing if the amount of money remained constant. If there are not more currency units available, then costs do not increase uniformly.

Those who predict a decline in inflation are referring to the rate of price increases rather than a decrease in overall costs. Not that prices would decrease, but rather that the annual rate of price increases will slow down.

Because margins are shrinking and real incomes are declining, this new reality of enduringly high prices is difficult for businesses and families to accept.

The reality that households and small companies are getting poorer and the middle class is being destroyed is true whether you are bullish or bearish on the rate of change of prices.

END

STRANGE INDEED!!

(Michael Snyder)

Why Are Walmart And Other Major US Retailers Canceling Billions Of Dollars In Orders As Summer Comes To An End?

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 01:28 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Do they know something that they aren’t telling us?  As you will see below, Walmart, Target and other major U.S. retailers are literally canceling billions of dollars in orders ahead of the coming holiday season.  I have never heard of such a thing happening before, and under normal conditions it wouldn’t make any sense at all.  The holiday season is typically the busiest time of the year for retailers, and at this time in 2021 there was actually a great deal of concern that there wouldn’t be enough inventory due to global supply chain problems.  But now everything has changed.  All of a sudden major retailers are feverishly canceling orders, and this would only make sense if a severe economic downturn was imminent.

For example, Walmart is admitting that it has canceled “billions of dollars in orders” as we approach the upcoming holiday season…

John David Rainey, Walmart’s EVP and CFO, said it had cleared most summer inventory, was reducing exposure in electronics, home and sporting goods, and canceled “billions of dollars in orders” to realign inventories. He said, “Our actions in Q3 will allow us to make significant progress toward rationalizing absolute levels and mix, which will enable our stores to be well positioned ahead of the holiday season.”

It is extremely odd that Walmart would decide to do such a thing.

Recently I had an opportunity to stroll through a Walmart, and there were plenty of inventory holes.

So what would make them suddenly cancel “billions of dollars” in orders that they thought that they were going to need for the holiday season?

Perhaps some enterprising reporter will be willing to ask them such a question.

Meanwhile, we just learned that Target has also canceled “more than $1.5 billion” in orders…

Target said it had reduced its “inventory exposure in discretionary categories” throughout Q2 by canceling more than $1.5 billion of orders in these categories and marking down products.

Target is much smaller than Walmart is, and so for Target to cancel so many orders is a really big deal.

And it turns out that Kohl’s and Under Armour have also been canceling large numbers of orders as well

Kohl’s has also pulled back on order receipts and increased promotions to get through an inventory glut.

“We have taken action to address inventory, including increasing promotions, being aggressive on clearing excess inventory and pulling back on receipts,” said Kohl’s CFO Jill Timm in a call with investors.

Under Armour also said it made some proactive cancellations due to supply chain constraints to ensure that “the right inventory was coming in at the right time,” said interim president and CEO Colin Browne in a call with investors.

These retailers are obviously scared that they will end up stuck with massive amounts of inventory that they cannot sell.

Do they believe that economic activity during the months ahead will be much lower than they originally anticipated?

One corporate executive that is actually publicly admitting that he believes that a recession is coming is FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam

FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday that he believes a recession is impending for the global economy.

“I think so. But you know, these numbers, they don’t portend very well,” Subramaniam said in response to Cramer’s question of whether the economy is “going into a worldwide recession.”

The CEO’s pessimism came after FedEx missed estimates on revenue and earnings in its first quarter. The company also withdrew its full year guidance.

Sadly, he is right on target.

For months, I have been warning that the economic numbers were telling us that big trouble was on the way, and now everyone can see it.

But unlike the “Great Recession” of 2008 and 2009, this time we are also going to have to deal with raging inflation even as economic activity slows down all around us.

In fact, the Wall Street Journal is ominously warning that U.S. consumers “are set to pay even more this winter” as heating costs continue to soar to absolutely ridiculous levels…

U.S. utility customers, faced with some of their largest bills in years, are set to pay even more this winter as natural-gas prices continue to climb.

Natural-gas prices have more than doubled this year because of a global supply shortage made worse by the war in Ukraine, and they are expected to remain elevated for months as fuel is needed to light and heat homes during the winter. The supply crunch has made it substantially more expensive for utilities to purchase or produce power, and those costs are being passed on to customers.

The cost of living has been rising much faster than our paychecks have for quite some time now, and a lot more pain is on the horizon.

I really like how Brandon Smith recently summarized the current state of the U.S. economy…

A common refrain from people who are critical of alternative economists is that we have been predicting crisis for so long that “eventually we will be right.” These are generally people who don’t understand the nature of economic decline – It’s like an avalanche that builds over time, then breaks and quickly escalates as it flows down the mountain. What they don’t grasp is that they are in the middle of an economic collapse RIGHT NOW, and they just can’t see it because they have been acclimated to the presence of the snow and cold.

Economic decline is a process that takes many years, and while you might get an event like the market crash of 1929 or the crash of 2008, these moments of panic are nothing more than the wreckage left behind by the great wave of tumbling ice that everyone should have seen coming far in advance, but they refused.

That is so true.

We are already in the midst of a raging economic crisis, but things will get so much worse during the months and years to come.

Walmart, Target and other major retailers are working really hard to get prepared for what is coming.

Are you?

I hope so, because at this point it should be glaringly obvious to everyone that exceedingly challenging times are on the way.

*  *  *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

end

You can safely say that the housing market has crashed:

(zerohedge)

Home Robo-Flipper Opendoor “In Danger Zone” After Losing Money On 42% Of All Transactions

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 01:45 PM

Last November, housing consultancy firm Zillow lobbed the first warning shot that the housing bubble had burst, when it shocked markets by firing 25% of its workforce, and announcing it had scrapped its robo-flipping program after losing hundreds of millions by allowing robots to buy and sell homes.

And while Zillow’s debacle marked the beginning of the end of the latest housing bubble, we would have thought that comparable peer roboflipping companies would have learned their lesson and either changed the parameters of the purchases and sales to generate greater profits into this housing recession(instead of merely volume) or quietly exited the business altogether. Well, we would have been dead wrong, because today we learned that yet another robo home-flipper has blown up.

According to Bloomberg, recent startup darling Opendoor, which it describes as “a pioneer of a data-driven spin on home-flipping known as iBuying”, i.e., a robo-flipper which has been optimized not for profit but volume selling thousands of homes in a typical month, lost money on 42% of its transactions in August, according to research from YipitData. Opendoor’s performance —as measured by the prices at which it bought and sold properties — was even worse in key markets such as Los Angeles, where the company lost money on 55% of sales, and Phoenix, where the share was 76%. It’s almost as if those indicative prices you see on Zillow and OpenDoor are dead wrong.

While the Opendoor fiasco doesn’t mean that it will shut down its iBuying business similar to Zillow, according to Mike DelPrete, a scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder (it will when the losses become massive enough), but it demonstrates the depth of the losses — and September is likely to be even worse than August, DelPrete’s analysis shows.

“Opendoor’s metrics are in the danger zone,” DelPrete said in an interview. “They are very close to where Zillow was in its worst moments.”

For those unfamiliar, the roboflipping aka “iBuying” model relies on acquiring homes, making light repairs and reselling the properties, usually within a few months of the initial purchase. In many ways this is similar to the robosigning mortgage fraud that became endemic during the days of the housing bubble, where mortgage bankers were tasked with underwriting as many mortgages as possible. Well, we have a similar phenomenon this time, only now instead of mortgages, we have a cash-heavy buyer that doesn’ even need debt to bid up everything in the market in hopes of flipping it shortly after.

And of course, when home prices were skyrocketing earlier in the year, Opendoor banked easy profits just as robosigners made millions for banks when the housing bubble was merrily bubbling up. But then it all came crashing down as soaring mortgage rates which just surpassed 6% and dwindling affordability finally pushed would-be buyers to the sidelines.

By June, median home prices had begun to decline in some areas, especially in Western and the Sun Belt markets that had been frothiest in the pandemic boom days. The shift caught Opendoor by surprise, leaving it to offload thousands of properties it had agreed to purchase when prices were rising.

Instead of canceling contracts, Opendoor decided to make good on the offers, explaining the decision as an investment in the company’s brand, according to a letter to investors in August. It also warned investors that it expected to lose as much as $175 million in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter.

Eventually, Opendoor will finish selling through the inventory it acquired before the market shifted, giving it a chance to stem its losses and start selling homes profitably again. The question is what losses will it incur in the process. The worst might already be over, with last week representing the nadir of the selloff, according to an analysis by Tyler Okland, chief executive officer of Datadoor.io.

In the meantime, Opendoor’s struggles have been a boon for people like Troy Ready, who completed an online form to solicit a bid from the company for his Yorba Linda, California, home. He almost fell out of his chair when Opendoor offered $1.4 million, and closed on the deal at the end of March.

Opendoor put the house back on the market two weeks later, asking just under $1.6 million, then cut the asking price every two weeks before selling the property for $1.3 million in August.

“We managed to sell at the particular top of the market,” said Ready. “It felt like a big win.”

For Ready it was a win, but for OpenDoor and its shareholders, an epic disaster: the company’s shares closed at $4.06 on Sept. 16, down 72% this year.152

END

Puerto Rico suffers an island wide blackout as the hurricane approaches.

(zerohedge)

Puerto Rico Suffers Island wide Blackout, Internet Connectivity Crashes As Hurricane Nears

SUNDAY, SEP 18, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Tropical Storm Fiona intensified into a Category 1 hurricane Sunday as it moved south of Puerto Rico, bringing heavy rains and high winds to some parts of the island.

Hurricane Fiona is the season’s sixth named storm and third hurricane. The storm moves west-northwest at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 85mph. As of 1400 ET, the National Hurricane Center said Fiona’s center was 25 miles south of Ponce, a city with more than 100,000 people on the island’s southern coast.

As Fiona approached the island, PowerOutage.US reported an islandwide power blackout:

Puerto Rico is 100% without power due to a transmission grid failure from Hurricane Fiona.” 

This means nearly 1.5 million people tracked by PowerOutage have experienced power disruptions. Puerto Rico’s governor, Pedro Pierluisi, confirmed in a tweet the storm knocked out the island’s entire electric system. 

Fiona’s path includes several large fossil fuel power plants. There’s no official confirmation on what power plants were disrupted or if downed transmission lines were the source of the outages. 

Social media users tweeted videos of heavy flooding and damaging winds already battering the island. 

… and internet connectivity crashed with power blackouts across the island.  

Hurricane models show Fiona’s future path could be out into the Atlantic by mid-next week. Models have yet to indicate US landfall, though nothing is locked in as far as the future path. 

A hurricane warning is in effect for the U.S. territory. President Biden approved Puerto Rico’s emergency declaration earlier today.

END

Organized retail crime reaches crisis stage

(Jung/EpochTimes)

Organized Retail Crime Reaching “Crisis Scale”

SUNDAY, SEP 18, 2022 – 08:30 PM

Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The massive wave of retail thefts in the United States over the past two years have become a major challenge for both the retail industry and law enforcement.

Weakened law enforcement policies and lesser penalties for these criminal bandit gangs have hit a critical juncture, as crime in the United States has hit proportions not seen in three decades.

The number of increasingly professional organized retail crime (ORC) rings and their frequent attacks have reached crisis scale, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) in a Sept. 14 report.

These crimes have hurt thousands of businesses and have contributed to higher prices for consumers and loss of key retailers in many communities, as countless stores have closed to due to lack of security.

“The factors contributing to retail shrink have multiplied in recent years, and organized retail crime is a burgeoning threat within the retail industry,” said Mark Meadows, NRF vice president for research development and industry analysis.

“These highly sophisticated criminal rings jeopardize employee and customer safety and disrupt store operations. Retailers are bolstering security efforts to counteract these increasingly dangerous and aggressive criminal activities.

A Spike in Organized Thievery

According to the 2022 National Retail Security Survey, issued by NRF, the total loss of stolen goods hit $94.5 billion by the end of 2021, up from losses of $90.8 billion in 2020.

The NRF found that the average shrink rate in losses for 2021 was 1.44 percent, a slight decline from the previous two years, but comparable to the five-year average of 1.5 percent.

Acts of fraud are being reported across all venues, ranging from brick-and-mortar stores, e-commerce, and omni-channel platforms since 2020.

A sudden increase store violence is another growing area of concern, such as random attacks on store personnel, robberies, and ORC gangs.

The majority of surveyed retailers reported a 89.3 percent increase in violence and a 73.2 percent uptick in shoplifting.

The reported incidents of both ORC and employee theft rose 71.4 percent, much of it involving organized crime or for the gangs’ own benefit.

The NRF said that respondents reported that ORC robberies have risen 26.5 percent since the onset of the pandemic.

The most targeted store items fall under the acronym CRAVED: concealable, removable, available, valuable, enjoyable,  and disposable.

Items under CRAVED include apparel, health and beauty, electronics/appliances, accessories, food and beverage, footwear, home furnishings and housewares, home improvement, eyewear, office supplies, infant care, and toys.

In search of solutions, retailers are boosting spending on theft-prevention measures.

The NRF survey showed that 60.3 percent of retailers are increasing their security budgets.

At least 52.4 percent are increasing their investments in technology, such as radio frequency identification tags and readers, computerized security scanners, and license plate-recognition devices.

We are seeing more and more, particularly, organized retail crime,” said Corrie Barry, Best Buy’s CEO, in late 2021 to the NY Post.

“You can see that pressure in our financials. And more importantly, frankly, you can see that pressure with our associates. It’s traumatizing,” she said.

Radical Crime Policies and Recidivism

Wealthy liberal enclaves throughout the country with district attorneys thought of as “soft on crime” appear to be the regions most affected by the crime wave and which has only grown worse since the pandemic.

The top five metropolitan areas affected by store bandit gangs in the past year were the Californian cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Oakland; New York; Houston, Texas; and Miami, Florida.

Retailers across the country are calling for stronger legislation, especially at the federal and state level, along with better enforcement of existing laws to quell increasing acts of violence and theft, which are hurting their survival.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce demanded earlier this year that Congress take action to address the rise of ORC crimes, calling them a “national emergency.”

Retail theft is becoming a national crisis, hurting businesses in every state and the communities they serve,” said Neil Bradley, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s chief policy officer, in a letter to Congress in March.

“We call on policymakers to tackle this problem head-on before it gets further out of control. No store should have to close because of theft.”

Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva blamed radical Democrats and prosecutors, saying that they “live in this ‘woke palace’ where they’re not affected by the policies, but the average person IS impacted by them.”

END

CALIFORNIA

Migration of citizens to other states and the recession is causing a short 11% drop in total California revenue

a canary in the tax mine?

(zerohedge)

Canary In The Tax-Mine? California Sees 11% Drop In Revenue

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 05:45 AM

While California may be sitting on close to a $100 billion budget surplus, it’s also sitting on an estimated $1.5 trillion in unfunded local and state pension liabilities – which will fall squarely on the shoulders of California taxpayers.

Compounding the situation is an 11% drop in personal income tax revenue than California expected this year, in what may be the new normal as we enter what may be a global recession. And let’s not forget – the great migration out of California by residents and companies alike. A net 280,000 people left the state in 2021 for various reasons, which may be setting the state economy up for disaster.

The Golden State’s revenue collections through August, the second month of the 2022-2023 fiscal year, came in around 8% less than forecast, according to Bloomberg, citing a bulletin from the California Department of Finance.

Shortfalls in August continued to be largely driven by lower proceeds from personal income tax, however, the month also saw lower proceeds from sales and corporation taxes,” reads the notice, which adds that August typically isn’t a significant month for personal income tax collections.

According to an August report from California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office, tax revenue losses from people leaving the state hit a decade-high in 2020.

The news comes as California-based businesses announce headwinds-related slowdowns.

California is prone to booms and crippling deficits because of its dependence on high-wage earners, and some of the state’s once high-flying companies have been laying off workers as economic headwinds mount.

While Silicon Valley giants such as Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. have indicated that they’re slowing their pace of hiring, companies from Netflix Inc. to Lyft Inc. have fired workers as economic headwinds mount. California was also one of 16 states to see its unemployment rate tick up in August, reaching 4.1%, according to US Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Friday. –Bloomberg

That said, California is setting aside billions to absorb the impact of the next economic downturn – with lawmakers having socked away $37.2 billion into its reserves in its latest spending plan. 

END

SWAMP STORIES

Martha’s Vineyard Is Just The Start: Ron DeSantis Has Big Plans On Immigration

SUNDAY, SEP 18, 2022 – 10:30 PM

Authored by W.James Antle III via 19fortyfive.com,

Ron DeSantis’ Immigration Moves Not Limited to Martha’s Vineyard: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been trying to establish himself as a conservative leader on a number of issues. The latest is immigration.

Like other Republican governors, DeSantis is trying to contrast himself with the policies of President Joe Biden. Before inflation, there was no greater flashpoint than immigration

DeSantis wants faraway affluent liberal communities to get a small sense of what the Biden-era migrant surge is doing to border communities. The residents of Martha’s Vineyard are not amused

But there is more to DeSantis’ immigration insurgency than dropping undocumented migrants off in blue cities (something the Biden administration itself might be contemplating).

The Florida governor is vying for leadership of the populist and nationalist right, ascendant factions of the conservative movement and Republican Party, as surely as he is seeking reelection in November. This would position DeSantis well to compete for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

Speaking to the third U.S.-based National Conservatism Conference in Miami, DeSantis spoke differently about immigration than previous Republicans favored by movement conservative leaders and big-money GOP donors. He argued America’s capacity for mass immigration has its limits.

“We’ve had periods where we had high immigration levels that we have had success, we’ve also had periods where we have great success with immigration levels being very low, such as … [in] the decades after World War II,” Ron DeSantis told the conservative gathering in his keynote address, referencing the period before the 1965 Immigration Act.

“So the issue is, how does immigration serve the people of the United States and the national interest?” he continued.

“We’re not globalists who believe that foreigners have a right to come into our country whenever they want to.”

This is a much less romantic way of talking about immigration than past Republican leaders like former President George W. Bush. It is also a more systematic approach than former President Donald Trump, whose own immigration policies represented a profound break with Bush’s.

But even with advisers like Stephen Miller and his erstwhile boss, former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Trump couldn’t always articulate an alternative vision that could compete with the Republican establishment view on these matters.

DeSantis wraps his populist critique of the Robert Bartley/Wall Street Journal editorial page’s free-market defense of more or less open borders in his broader rejection of corporatism and woke capitalism.

“The United States is a nation that has an economy, not the other way around,” DeSantis said, again at the natcon conference.

“Our economy should be geared towards helping our own people.”

What does that mean?

“I’m not a central planner. I don’t want to be doing that,” he began.

But corporatism is not the same as free enterprise. Too many Republicans have viewed limited government to basically mean whatever is best for corporate America is how we want to do the economy. And my view is, obviously free enterprise is the best economic system.”

That doesn’t mean that what’s good for General Electric or General Motors is necessarily good for America, at least not in 2022.

“But that is a means to an end,” Ron DeSantis said of the free market.

“It’s a means to having a good fulfilling life and a prosperous society. It’s not an end in and of itself, and we need to make sure that we have that firmly in mind.”

It’s not hard to see how such a vision can spiral out of control, as libertarians will be quick to remind conservatives. But it’s also not the first time conservatives have spoken this way. Pat Buchanan’s criticism of corporations whose “highest loyalty is to the bottom line on a balance sheet,” Russell Kirk’s disquisitions on the anti-conservative nature of particularly acquisitive capitalism, the work of Robert Nisbet.

Republican congressmen and even the occasional senator. Big-state governors who might be running for president have not.

The closest precedent is former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s 2015 embrace of immigration restraint when he was viewed as a top-tier candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. He was criticized by a lot of the same types of conservatives now wary of DeSantis.

Soon enough, Trump was able to take away the immigration issue — and the top spot in polls of Republican voters — away from Walker. The nomination followed. 

Ron DeSantis hopes the similarities in the story end there.

KING REPORT

The King Report September 19, 2022 Issue 6846Independent View of the News
 Traders Hedge on Yen Rebound Ahead of Bank of Japan MeetingInvestors buy short-term options to hedge against yen gainsRising yields putting pressure on BOJ to tweak YCC policyThe yen rallied 0.4% against the dollar Friday as investors position ahead of the BOJ’s Sept. 22 policy decision…  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-16/traders-hedge-on-yen-rebound-ahead-of-bank-of-japan-meeting
 
China’s retail, factory sectors perk up in August
Industrial output grew 4.2% in August from a year earlier, the fastest pace since March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). That beat a 3.8% increase expected by analysts in a Reuters poll and July’s 3.8% expansion.  Retail sales rose 5.4% from a year ago, the quickest in six months and also beating forecasts for 3.5% growth and the 2.7% gain in July…  https://t.co/x0oTWMJ66v
 
September UM Sentiment 59.5, 60 expected, 58.2 prior; Current Conditions 58.9, 59.4 expected, 58 prior; Expectations 59.9, 59 expected, 58 prior; 1-year inflation 4.6% as expected, 4.8% prior
 
ESZs hit a low of 3853.00 near 10:00 ET on FedEx’s plight and the ramifications for the global economy.  The usual suspects eagerly bought the early tumble due to conditioned behavior and the desire to manipulate ESZs and stocks higher to salvage September call positions.  An estimated $3.2 trillion (notional value) of derivatives expired on Friday.  There was serious money on the table.
 
The manipulation produced a 36-handle ESZ rally by 10:34 ET.  Alas, sellers reappeared, ESZs hit their daily low of 3853.00 at 12:26 ET.  The double bottom held; so, a Noon Balloon developed.  It ended when the afternoon arrived.  After a modest retreat, ESZs and stocks meandered modestly higher.  The rally ended at 13:48 ET.  ESZs and stocks then went inert until someone juiced ESZs at 14:30 ET.  It was time for another expiry manipulation to salvage September call positions!
 
ESZs soared to 3894.25 at 15:08 ET on the blatant but standard expiry-related manipulation.  Some traders rushed to liquidate calls that went into the money.  ESZs slid 20 handles by 15:31 ET.  The final manipulation then commenced.  ESZs jumped 26 handles by the NYSE close.
 
USZs tumbled when the US bond market opened at 8 ET.  After hitting a low of 130 12/32 at 9 ET, USZs soared to 131 23/32 at 10:30 ET.  USZs then sank to 130 28/32 by noon ET.  They went inert thereafter.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Post-NYSE drop rally for equities
Due to the expiry manipulation, the early carnage in equities was moderated in the afternoon
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks got hammered again; bonds declined modestly
The DJTA closed -685.39, -5.07%; it declined as much as 6.34% (854 points)
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How low will stocks go?  How high will the Fed go?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3863.82
Previous session High/Low3880.95; 3837.08
 
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss cancels pre-funeral meeting with Joe Biden – while keeping appointments with several other heads of state ahead of Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral on Monday…
https://nypost.com/2022/09/17/u-k-pm-liz-truss-cancels-pre-funeral-meeting-with-joe-biden/
 
Fauci “Misled Congress” About Gain-Of-Function Research, but ‘Protected By Biden Admin’; Former CDC Chief Says – Robert Redfield told former Senate Finance Committee investigator Paul Thacker that National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci “knew” he funded gain-of-function research that makes viruses more dangerous, and “misled Congress” when he denied it.”… https://t.co/k6Uhi3XOL8
 
Learning loss was steepest in school districts that stayed remote longest: Study
https://news.yahoo.com/learning-loss-was-steepest-in-school-districts-that-stayed-remote-longest-study-163019817.html
 
@JohnBasham: Federal Appeals Court Upholds Texas Law Forbidding Political or Other Viewpoint Discrimination by Social-Media Companies With at Least 50 MILLION Users.
https://twitter.com/JohnBasham/status/1570878935826857984
 
Ace pollster @RobertCahaly: In 2016 Trump supporters were called “Deplorables” and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that “most” polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.
     In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed”. This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations
    Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.
    I call this new group “submerged voters”. They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls.  At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on “MAGA Republicans” has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.
    The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these “submerged voters”.
 
Beware of fake and invalidly sampled polls that are appearing and will proliferate in coming weeks.
 
1994 Generic Ballot Trending for Democrats… in the closing days of 1994… (GOP +54 House seats!)  https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/1994_generic_ballot_trending_for_democrats/
 
Electric Bills Soar Across the Country as Winter Looms – Rising natural-gas prices are expected to make it more expensive to light and heat homes in the coming months
    The Energy Information Administration anticipates the residential price of electricity will average 14.8 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2022, up 7.5% from 2021 in part because power producers are limited in their ability to burn coal instead due to supply constraints and plant retirements
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-bills-soar-across-the-country-as-winter-looms-11663493404?s=02
 
@MacroAlf: The 5 largest economies in the world are experiencing the fastest slowdown in credit creation in over 20 years. History suggests that earnings and economic activity will follow.  Soft landing my a** https://t.co/zU4LUzSWWV
 
@LanceRoberts: Despite this year’s rout in both stocks and bonds, investors still aren’t selling. We will likely need to see that change before the final bottom is put in.
https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1570004827123470338
 
For months, Street shills and permabulls advocated buying stocks because the Fed will ease in 2023.  Now that the August CPI destroyed that view, the usual suspects are advocating the purchase of equities because the interest rate markets show the Fed will ease in 2024.  You cannot make this up!
 
Today – This is Fed and BoJ Week.  The Fed is expected to hike rates by 75bps.  If the Fed hikes 100bs, the markets will not be happy.  The Bank of Japan is expected to reiterate its dovishness and to threat that it will intervene in the yen.
 
Traders will play for the usual Monday and post-expiry rallies.  There is no impact economic news scheduled and the window for a rally is open until the FOMC Communique on Wednesday at 14:00 ET.
 
ESZs are +5.50 and USZs are +2/32 a 20:20 ET.  Barring unexpected news, traders will buy dips today.
 
Expected economic data: Sept NAHB Housing Market Index 48
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4042; 100-day MA: 4010; 150-day MA: 4141; 200-day MA: 4258
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,229; 100-day MA: 32,097 150-day MA: 33,805; 200-day MA: 33,484
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4765.16 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4273.61 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4072.28 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3903.79 triggers a buy signal
 
Biden on “60 Minutes”: “Look, my intention, as I said, to begin with is that I would run again. But it’s just an intention. But is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen.”He will wait until after the Midterms to decide on a 2024 runUS forces would defend Taiwan from China attackJoe will support Ukraine for “as long as it takes.”The Big Guy said he believes the Covid-19 pandemic is “over.” 
How much editing did “60 Minutes” do to make The Big Guy look presidential?
 
Venezuela Empties Prisons, Sends Violent Criminals to U.S. Border, Says DHS Report
Nicolás Maduro Moros, is purposely freeing inmates — including some convicted of murder, rape, and extortion…  https://www.breitbart.com/border/2022/09/18/exclusive-venezuela-empties-prisons-sends-violent-criminals-to-u-s-says-dhs-report/
 
The illegal immigrants sent to Martha’s Vineyard on Thursday were expelled on Friday. 
 
@EmilieIkedaNBC: Migrants, flown into Martha’s Vineyard by Fl’s gov…, are boarding buses. They’ll be heading to Joint Base Cape Cod… 125 Mass National Guard members are being activated to assist.
 
@BuckSexton: Why is Martha’s Vineyard deporting these migrants out of their crime free, gorgeous paradise for rich people? Inhumane! Call the UN!
 
@Breaking911: MSNBC REPORTER: “I can tell you, they’re not angry at Ron DeSantis. They are actually thanking him for having brought them to Martha’s Vineyard.”
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1570887358412918785
 
@ClayTravis: Martha’s Vineyard couldn’t handle 50 illegal immigrants for even 24 hours. They called in the buses and deported them from the island. But I thought left wingers loved diversity? Sad day.
(Reportedly MV’s population expands to nearly 200k during summer.  Now, they cannot house 50?)
 
GOP Sen. @tedcruz: Leftist hypocrisy: Dems activate National Guard to interdict 50 illegal immigrants who disturbed liberals’ golf games & Chardonnay at Martha’s Vineyard. They do NOTHING to address 4.2 MILLION illegal immigrants who have flooded small towns in Texas.  Biden doesn’t care.
 
Wise guys joked that all illegal immigrants have been removed from Martha’s Vineyard except the one that had a fake Hawaiian birth certificate.
 
@docMJP: The people of Martha’s Vineyard have established a model policy for @RonDeSantisFL
& @GregAbbott_TX: Use state military to transport illegal immigrants to military bases rather than flying them into the rest of the nation. Govs must now build state militias and bases as needed.
 
@BrendonLeslie: Ron DeSantis single handedly made the national conversation about the invasion at our Southern border with less than two months until election.
 
@bonchieredstate: Let them seethe. DeSantis successfully turned the entire nation’s attention off abortion and on to the border crisis by giving rides to just 50 illegal aliens. That’s why they are so upset. They hate him because of how good at this he is.
 
@davidharsanyi: It can’t be lost on the average voter that there was a lot more angry coverage of 50 migrants in Martha’s Vineyard than millions overwhelming southern border towns.
 
Liberals and the regime media are so out of touch with average Americans that they do not realize that their weekend-long whining about DeSantis shipping illegal immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard further vexes average Americans on illegal immigration, which along with inflation & crime are top concerns.
 
Now, illegal immigration, which Trump rode to the WH in 2016, will be a bigger issue.  Guess which party this favors?  The regime media and Biden have been yelling ‘abortion, abortion, abortion’ to divert attention from the major issues.  DeSantis destroyed any traction abortion gained. 
 
@D_Honch: This is how Republicans win.  Every GOP governor should watch @GovRonDeSantis in action. Make Democrats own the policies they force on the rest of the nation.
 
@emeriticus: The real lesson from the Martha’s Vineyard affair is that it’s OK to use the military to remove illegal aliens from your community. That is the takeaway.
 
@DeSantisWarRoom: We added a whale emoji to our handle to show solidarity with the millionaires and billionaires of Martha’s Vineyard, who are traumatized after feeding FrootLoops to 50 illegal migrants and then calling the National Guard to deport them.
https://twitter.com/DeSantisWarRoom/status/1571149178700713985
 
@TuckerCarlson: For hundreds of years, Martha’s Vineyard has suffered from the soul-crushing effects of its own whiteness. Island residents understood there was only one cure. They badly needed diversity. Relief finally arrived from an unlikely source yesterday: Ron DeSantis.
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1570585089272053761
 
Tucker Carlson: “When penniless illegal aliens show up in Texas ‘they’re normal strivers and looking for better life in this country’. When these same people get a free flight to Martha Vineyard, something else is entirely different ‘playing political games with people lives’.”
https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1570655960800333825
 
@RealMacReport: Gov. Greg Abbot: “Biden himself was doing very same thing the only difference is he’s moving people in the dark of night without public being able to see it. What we have done is in the light of day and so there it’s hypocritical, criticizing us.”
 
Ron DeSantis has Martha’s Vineyard elites feeling blue
Massachusetts is a sanctuary state, so obviously the Vineyard is a sanctuary island. Isn’t this what the limousine liberals have always wanted … for us, but not for them?  It’s the same deal as with, say, carbon emissions. Yours are a problem, theirs aren’t… Their shallow, priggish commitment to diversity, equity, inclusion, and open borders is exposed as a shameless fraud…
https://howiecarrshow.com/ron-desantis-has-marthas-vineyard-elites-feeling-blue/
 
Martha’s Vineyard and the fraud of the rich white liberal
Where’s their compassion? Where’s their inclusion?
    As natural hypocrites whose commitment to diversity ends where their pebbled driveways begin, they don’t like the idea of the Vineyard’s newest residents any more than Democrat mayors like Eric Adams of New York and Muriel Bowser of Washington, DC appreciate their migrants…
https://spectatorworld.com/topic/marthas-vineyard-and-the-fraud-of-the-rich-white-liberal/
 
Martha’s Vineyard local calls on Obamas to open their $12M home to migrants
Jane Chittick, a former town official-turned-crime novelist: “I don’t think people like the Obamas with huge estates who live here in the summer will care (about the migrants)… I would love to see the Obamas open up their huge property and erect tents and look after all these people while they’re being processed.“… https://t.co/ezRw4N4A0t
 
Obama, Martha’s Vineyard celebs silent on opening up island homes to illegal immigrants
Fox News Digital reached out to representatives for prominent public supporters of President Biden who own homes on Martha’s Vineyard but did not receive a response…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/obama-marthas-vineyard-celebs-silent-opening-up-island-homes-illegal-immigrants
 
By transporting migrants, GOP governors are exposing Democrats’ hypocrisy
The Dems running New York, Chicago, Washington, DC, and, yes, Martha’s Vineyard, are being hoisted on their own petard.  They supported virtually unfettered immigration, but didn’t bargain on thousands of the world’s unwashed popping up in their neighborhoods…
    Biden’s border fiasco is the latest proof that the left has plenty of fanciful ideas about creating paradise but none on how to govern in the real world. The defund-the-police movement led to a sickening surge in violent crime that continues as cops are demonized and criminals are coddled…
    The war on fossil fuels led to the dramatic rise in oil prices and helped fuel the historic inflation eating family paychecks…It is simply incredible how much damage he has inflicted on the nation in just 20 months… Yet not a single Dem has publicly demanded that Biden shut off the spigot. Their party loyalty might be admirable if it weren’t so destructive to their cities and the nation.
https://nypost.com/2022/09/17/by-transporting-migrants-gop-governors-exposing-democrats-hypocrisy/amp/
 
@ComicDaveSmith: The Martha’s Vineyard thing might be the best and clearest example of what so many of us have been talking about for years. The progressive elites advocate for policies that they never have to suffer the consequences of. And the one time they do, it ends quickly.
 
For about 1.5 years, Team Biden has proclaimed that the US border is secure and there is no problem with illegal immigration.  Now with that gaslighting blown up, Team Big Guy has retreated to its default position: ‘It’s Trump’s fault’ that the US border is not secure.  KJP: “This immigration system was decimated and gutted by this last administration…
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1570838906513551360
 
@townhallcom: REPORTER: “DeSantis…said it was essentially no different than what the federal government has done in sending flights in the middle of the night.”  KJP: “We are offering solutions.  That’s what the Biden-Harris administration has been doing since day one…”
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1570836211417354243
 
DeSantis hammered Biden and the MSM on immigration on Friday: “… The President is scrambling to get his Cabinet together to try to address the fact that you have governors who are helping to relocate illegal aliens to sanctuary cities,” DeSantis said. “He didn’t scramble to get his Cabinet together when we had millions of people illegally pouring across the southern border. He didn’t scramble to get his Cabinet together when you had 53 migrants die in some trailer in Texas because they were neglected by the federal government. You didn’t see him scramble to get his Cabinet together when we had Americans that were victimized by criminal aliens that he let across the border. You didn’t see him scramble to get his Cabinet together when we hit record fentanyl deaths, which that fentanyl is coming across his open border… It’s only when you have 50 illegal aliens end up in a very wealthy, rich sanctuary enclave that [Biden] decides to scramble on this…  https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1570838647749939200
 
@RealMacReport: Gov. DeSantis responds to Gavin Newsome letter to DOJ: “Governor of California sent a letter to the DOJ saying you need to prosecute Texas and Florida Governors. I think his hair gel is interfering with his brain function.”  https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1570845447266373632
 
Leftists loathe Trump; but they dread DeSantis.  Some leftists, via the regime media, are warning that DeSantis is more dangerous to their causes than Trump.
 
@nytimes: In Opinion: Ron DeSantis “may be a more competent Trump in terms of his ability to use the levers of state to amass power, but he’s also meaner and more rigid, without the soft edges and eccentricity of the actual Donald Trump,” writes @jbouiehttps://nyti.ms/3Su2zJx
 
NBC News gutted after deleting tweet with quote comparing Martha’s Vineyard migrants to ‘trash’
https://t.co/UQcLhnshQa
 
Babylon Bee: Martha’s Vineyard Takes Revenge on DeSantis by Shipping Him 50 Karens
https://babylonbee.com/news/marthas-vineyard-takes-revenge-on-desantis-by-shipping-him-50-karens
 
@RNCResearch: FLASHBACK to Joe Biden in 2007: “No great country can say it is secure without being able to control its borders.” What changed, @JoeBiden?
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1571162477991268353
 
Former top FBI official involved in Trump-Russia investigation under scrutiny by federal prosecutors for his own ties to Russia – US attorneys secretly convened a grand jury that examined the conduct of Charles McGonigal, the former head of counterintelligence at the FBI field office in New York City…the government, in part, was looking into McGonigal’s business dealings with a top aide to Oleg Deripaska, the billionaire Russian oligarch who was at the center of allegations that Russia colluded with the Trump campaign to interfere in the 2016 election…
https://www.businessinsider.com/exclusive-fbi-charles-mcgonigal-trump-russia-grand-jury-oleg-deripaska-2022-9
 
The FBI decided to take Danchenko off the payroll the same day John Durham was appointed. https://t.co/M6WH3XvwfA
 
Calls grow among prominent figures to create a new ‘Church Committee’ to probe FBI abuses
From bureau veterans to key lawmakers in Congress, the notion of an independent review is growing in urgency.  https://justthenews.com/accountability/calls-grow-among-prominent-figures-create-new-church-committee-probe-fbi-abuses
 
@ColumbiaBugle: Tucker Carlson And @nedryun Call Out Mitch McConnell and The GOP Establishment for Trying to Sabotage America First Candidates – Ned: “He’s playing games with the future of this country because he is petty and vindictive.”
https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1570579146777968642
 
Peter Thiel, Losing Arizona
He and Donald Trump helped Blake Masters get the nomination. Where are they now?
    Only six weeks ago the nominee emerged from a brutal, expensive five-way primary. Spending even more heavily to ensure a Masters victory was billionaire donor Peter Thiel, who backed his former employee to the tune of $12 million. The Thiel support influenced Donald Trump to endorse Mr. Masters and to hold a rally for him in the run-up to the primary. The New York Times in February described Mr. Thiel as the new “would-be kingmaker” of the GOP.
    Only where’s the would-be kingmaker now? Sitting in his counting house, the doors firmly locked. Mr. Thiel has abandoned the Arizona race, as well as the Ohio Senate candidate he spent $15 million to nominate, J.D. Vance. Mr. Trump is meanwhile using this cycle to hoover up grassroots donations that might otherwise go to competitive midterm candidates and so far, refuses to commit any of the estimated $99 million in a leadership PAC to his endorsees (DJT abandons yet another one)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiel-losing-arizona-blake-masters-funding-gop-super-pac-inflation-power-voters-republicans-filibuster-11663280414
 
Trump Blasts McConnell for Being Dems’ ‘Lapdog’ on Funding Govt
“Finally, some Republicans with great courage!” Trump wrote in a Save America PAC statement posted to Truth Social on Thursday night. “Rick Scott, Ted Cruz and Mike Lee are working hard to stop Chuck Schumer and his favorite, Sen. Mitch McConnell, from ramming through a disastrous continuing resolution that would do nothing to stop inflation, grow our economy or restore the American dream — it would only put big government first and give [Sen. Joe] Manchin his terrible deal.”…
    “Mitch McConnell is giving the Democrats everything they want,” Trump’s first Save America PAC statement, posted to Truth Social, read. “He is their lapdog! He didn’t stop trillions of dollars in spending by refusing to use the debt ceiling as a negotiating tool.  He gave it up for nothing. Now he wants to give Manchin the thing he wanted in order to destroy America and even the people of West Virginia. How about his tax on coal? The Republican Senate must do something about this absolute loser, Mitch McConnell, who folds every time against the Democrats — and he’s only getting worse!”…
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/donaldtrump-statement-mitchmcconnell/2022/09/15/id/1087730/
 
The regime media displayed several video clips of The Big Guy at the Detroit Auto Show last week.  They did not publish this linked clip that shows The Big Guy needing assistance to get out of a sports car.
https://twitter.com/realJoelFischer/status/1570814083720421377
 
Ousted Fox Nation host Lara Logan claims Jill Biden ‘knows her husband has dementia’
‘You’re never going to see the New York Times doing an article about the fact that Jill Biden is propping up her husband,’ Logan told the network’s host Eric Bolling.  ‘I mean, if you want to know something that is truly reprehensible and disgusting, is here is this woman who knows that her husband has dementia, and yet she’s lying to the whole country,’ she added…  https://t.co/gDOTN7h74i
 
Fake document on court docket in Trump search case may be linked to inmate in North Carolina
The incident also suggests that the court clerk was easily tricked into believing it was real, landing the document on the public docket in the Mar-a-Lago search warrant case. It also highlights the vulnerability of the U.S. court system and raises questions about the court’s vetting of documents that purport to be official records.
    The document first appeared on the court’s docket late Monday afternoon and was marked as a “MOTION to Intervene by U.S. Department of the Treasury.”
    The document, sprinkled with spelling and syntax errors, read, “The U.S. Department of Treasury through the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Marshals Service have arrested Seized Federal Securities containing sensitive documents which are subject to the Defendant Sealed Search Warrant by the F.B.I. arrest.”…  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/phony-document-lands-on-court-docket-in-trump-search-case/
 
Election deniers? 82 Democrats who called GOP election wins questionable, illegitimate or stolen
“Without voter suppression, Stacey Abrams would be the governor of Georgia; Andrew Gillum is the governor of Florida,” then-Sen. Kamala Harris said…
    Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has at least questioned, if not outright denied, the outcomes of the 2000, 2004, and 2016 presidential elections, as well as the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election. She said that the Supreme Court “took away a presidency,” following the 2000 presidential election, in its ruling in Bush v. Gore. Clinton also repeatedly claimed that Trump was “an illegitimate president.”…
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/list-83-democrats-who-have-denied-election-outcomes-amid-criticism-gop
 
Chicago police chief announces unexpected retirement Friday https://t.co/Ub8UO3ZNra
 
Liberal comedian and talk show host @billmaher: In today’s world, when truth conflicts with narrative, it’s the truth that has to apologize.

Greg Hunter interviewing Gerald Celente

Creating the Worst Socioeconomic & Geopolitical Crisis in History – Gerald Celente

By Greg Hunter On September 17, 2022 In Political Analysis73 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Renowned trends researcher and publisher of “The Trends Journal,” Gerald Celente, contends the world is going into a very dark period.  Celente explains, “We are facing the worst socioeconomic and geopolitical crisis in modern history.  The Covid war, this happened and that happened because of the pandemic.  There was no pandemic.  This happened because of politicians, little pieces of scum crap . . . one after another said close down your business, don’t go outside, don’t go to the beach, close down the swings and don’t let kids go and play.  You have a socioeconomic crisis, the likes of which are unprecedented, and the damage caused by the Covid war is incalculable.  (The CV19 Vax is part of Covid War.)  Office occupancy rates are at about 45% tops.  So, all the businesses that depended on commuters are gone.  30% of dry cleaners are out of business.  No more happy hours.  In New York City, there are about 1,300 less people that clean office buildings now.  This is real.  People forget that in 2019, Germany was going into a recession.  There were protests and demonstrations going on all over the world. . . . People were taking to the streets and protesting a lack of basic living standards, government corruption, crime and violence.  It was one of our top trends.  This is before the Covid war.  They artificially propped up the governments.  It was the Federal Reserve and the central banksters.  They artificially pumped up the economies.  There is almost $8 trillion pumped into the U.S. economy by the government to artificially prop it up. . . . When you look at the Covid war, the draconian, demonic mandates and lockdowns that they imposed on businesses, when you look at the Ukraine war, the sanctions and the stupid things they are doing, they are creating the worst socioeconomic and geopolitical crisis in modern history.”

Celente points out, “Nobody is talking about peace . . . and don’t you dare talk about peace. . . . We are being driven to war by mentally ill people . . . All they want is control.”

Celente says the number one investment trend is physical gold.  Celente explains, “I don’t give financial advice, but to me, gold is the number one safe haven asset. . . . Gold keeps going down because interest rates are going up and bullion does not pay interest.  It’s true, but gold is a safe haven asset in times of socioeconomic and geopolitical despair, which we are in now.  That’s when you need to have it as I see it.  Can gold go down further?  Yep.  It could go down a little bit more.  Then only reason the dollar is strong is because all the other currencies are so weak. . . .Sales are down, and when you put inflation into it, they are really down.  So, to me, gold is the one, and I am only speaking for myself, and on Friday, I bought more gold.”

In closing, Celente says, “At The Trends Journal, we see things the way they are, not the way we want them to be.”

There is much more in the 55-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with the top trends researcher on the planet, Gerald Celente, publisher of “The Trends Journal” for 9.17.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/creating-the-worst-socioeconomic-geopolitical-crisis-in-history-gerald-celente/)

After the Interview: 

The picture to the left is Gerald Celente with Van Morrison backstage at Forest Hills Stadium September 10, 2022, in New York.

Greg Hunter..

See you on TOMORROW

Harvey

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: