SEPT 20/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $6.65 TO $1663.05//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 18 CENTS TO $19.17//PLATINUM ROSE BY $2.45 TO 921.15//PALLADIUM CLOSED DWON $69.10 TO $2147.10//UPDATES ON EUROPE/GERMANY’S ECONOMIC WOES RE ENERGY//HUNGARY’S GAS STATIONS WILL RUN OUT OF GAS IN ONE WEEK//EU THREATENS HUNGARY AGAIN AS THEY REFUSE TO TOE THE LINE//SWEDEN SHOCKS MARKETS WITH A 100 BASIS POINT INTEREST RATE RISE//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE MANDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER///VACCINE IMPACT//VACCINE INJURY//ATLANTA FED LOWERS Q3 GDP TO ONLY .3% YEAR/YEAR: IT WILL BE BELOW PAR BY THE END OF THE QUARTER//HUGE CRASH IN HOUSING PERMITS AS THE HOUSING SECTOR IN THE USA IMPLODES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1663.05 DOWN $6.65 

SILVER: $19.17 DOWN $0.18 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1664.85

SILVER: $19.28

Bitcoin morning price:  $19,064 DOWN 198

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,479 DOWN 415

Platinum price closing UP $2.45 AT  $921.15

Palladium price; closing DOWN $69.10  at $2147.30

END

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,666.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/19/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/21/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 C HSBC 136
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 5
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 14
661 C JP MORGAN 334 169
737 C ADVANTAGE 3 9
800 C MAREX SPEC 8 10
905 C ADM 2


TOTAL: 345 345
MONTH TO DATE: 6,105

________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  

345 NOTICES FOR 34500 OZ //1.0730 TONNES

total notices so far: 6105 contracts for 610,500 oz (18.989 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICES FILED FOR 15,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  6462 :  for 32,310,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.18

AT THE SLV// ://GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: STRANGE@@!! A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILION OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 479.213 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A HUGE SIZED 1526  CONTRACTS TO 132,685.   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GIGANTIC  LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY  $0.02 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.02)  AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS BUT WE DID HAVE A MASSIVE SILVER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF OF 1376 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THE SPECS ARE FLEEING  AS FAST AS THEIR LITTLE FEET WILL CARRY THEM. 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//CONSIDERABLE SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -29

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 days, total 11,732  contracts:  58.660 million oz  OR 4.512 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (902 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 58.660  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 58.660 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1526 DESPITE OUR TINY  $0.02 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 150 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A//  CONSIDERABLE NET SPEC SHORT COVERINGS  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1376 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 6.735MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL ARE BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 3  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  15,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 2082 CONTRACTS  TO 467,551 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:+ 75  CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED  INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $4.80//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  MAJOR SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND //CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 32,100 OZ //NEW STANDING 19.4618 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $4.80 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3199 OI CONTRACTS 9.701 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1037  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 467,476

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3177 CONTRACTS  WITH 2082 CONTRACTS  INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1037 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3199 CONTRACTS OR 9.701 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1037) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (2082): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3119 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS///  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 32,100 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

34,691 CONTRACTS OR 3,469,100 OZ OR 107.90 TONNES 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2669 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 107.90 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  104.67/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.95% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 107.90 TONNES (SLIGHTLY RISING THIS MONTH) 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,FELL  BY A HUGE SIZED 1526 CONTRACT OI TO 132,685 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 150 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 150  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1200 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1497  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 150  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1376  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.880 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.02

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.80 PTS OR 0.22%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 215.45 PTS OR 1.16%    /The Nikkei closed UP 120.77 PTS OR .44%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.17%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.0128//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.0203//    /Oil UP TO 85.80  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92,32    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE   BY A FAIR SIZED 2082 CONTRACTS TO 467,551 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $4.80  IN GOLD PRICING  MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (1037 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1037 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :1037 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1037 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 3119  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1037 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 2082  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $4.80.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT   (19.4618),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  19.4618 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $4.80) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3119 CONTRACTS //   COMMERCIAL LONGS  ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS TRIED TO COVER ON   THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR GAIN  OF 3119 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (19.4618 TONNES)

WE HAD 75  CONTRACTS ADDED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3119 CONTRACTS OR 311,900  OZ OR 9.701 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 143,643///  poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  149,894/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 20

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz22,261.243 oz
Brinks
HSBC







 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today345   notice(s)
34,500  OZ
1.0730 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)152 contracts 
15200 oz
0.4727 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month6105 notices
610,500 OZ
18.989 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 14,228.678 oz 

ii) Out of HSBC 8032.565 oz

total:  22,261.243   oz   

total in tonnes: 0.6925 tonnes

Adjustments: 1

Brinks/dealer to customer:  22,859.361 oz  

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an  oi of 497 contracts having LOST 106 contracts .

We had 427 notices filed on MONDAY so we  gained a whopping  321 contracts or an additional 32,100 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.

October LOST ONLY 239 contracts DOWN to 42,973.  Oct is generally a poor active delivery month. It may change!! (Look for a very unusually large delivery month.)

November gained 44 contracts to stand at 329

December lost 1953 contracts DOWN to 378,724

We had 345 notice(s) filed today for 34,500 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  345 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 345 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 169 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6105) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT 2007 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 345 x 100 oz per contract equals 625,700 OZ  OR 19.4618 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON  active month of SEPT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (6105) x 100 oz+   (497)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (345} x 100 oz} which equals 625,700 oz standing OR 19.4618  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  19.4618 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR A SEPT (   NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,450,165.318 oz   76.21 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  27,068,473.883 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,009,293.364  OZ (404.64 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,059,182.519 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,759.128. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 334.65 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 20

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,381,918.828oz

BRINKS
DELAWARE
JPMORGAN
HSBC
LOOMIS
MANFRA











 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 302,815.160 oz

CNT
Delaware




 
No of oz served today (contracts)31CONTRACT(S)
15,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)140 contracts 
(700,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)6462 contracts
 32,310,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  2  deposits into the customer account

i)Into CNT: 37,863.100 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 264M952.060 oz

iii) Into Loomis: 107,476.900 oz

total deposit:  302,815.160   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 164.698 million oz/318.677million =51.69% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 6

i) Out of Brinks:  4886.01 oz

ii) Out of DELAWARE  2051.400 oz

iii) out of HSBC  993.200 oz

iv) Our of JPMorgan:  583,597.76 oz

V) Out of Loomis:  51,689.00 oz

vi) Out of Manfra:  736,631.588 oz

total: 1,381,918.828    oz

 adjustments: 3//dealer to customer

Brinks 5018.500 oz

 Loomis:  34,107.500 oz

Malca: 379,728.659 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 43.855 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 318.677 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 143 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 29 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

31 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

10,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER GAINED 0 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 518 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED 14 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 71

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 1613 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 117,658

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 31 for  155,000 oz

Comex volumes:74,106// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 86,127 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  6462 x 5,000 oz = 32,310,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(143) and the number of notices served upon today 3  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,462 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (143)  – number of notices served upon today (3) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 33,010,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 43.855 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 33.010 MILLION OZ represents 75.27% of that category of silver.

If we add August’s final delivery (to Sept) for silver at 5.51 million oz, we have a total of 38.52 million oz delivered upon with a REGISTERED INVENTORY of 43.855 million oz or 87.83% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:40,819// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 45,467contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

  AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES  

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 957.95 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER  UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

  AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//  

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 479.213 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Have Mysteriously Disappeared from this Week’s Senate and House Banking Hearings

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 20, 2022 ~

There are eight Global Systemically Important Banks (G- SIBS) in the U.S. They are: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley, State Street and Wells Fargo. These are the banks that pose the greatest risk to the stability of the U.S. financial system and are monitored under the Federal Reserve’s stress tests.

Five of those eight banks pose the greatest risk to financial stability because together they hold $200.18 trillion (yes trillion) in notional derivatives (face amount) or 86 percent of all derivatives held by all of the nation’s banks, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency – the federal regulator of national banks. Those banks are: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America.

In any Senate Banking or House Financial Services Committee hearing that is going to probe if these mega banks could blow up the U.S. financial system again — as they did in 2008 – these five banks have to be at the table for the hearing to be credible.

But for some reason – which fails to pass the smell test from every angle – Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have gone missing from the witness table at both the hearing on Wednesday at the House Financial Services Committee and at the hearing on Thursday at the Senate Banking Committee. The CEOs of the other banks will be present to be grilled on their most recent crimes.

Adding to the fishy smell, both banks were included at last year’s large bank hearings by the same Committees. This year, instead of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, new additions to the witness panel have popped up out of the blue. The CEOs of PNC, U.S. Bank and Truist have been added to the witness panel at both the Senate and House hearings, despite the fact that none of these banks have been designated Global Systemically Important Banks; rank anywhere near Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley when it comes to derivative exposure; or played any key role in blowing up the U.S. financial system in 2008.

Researchers at the government’s own Office of Financial Research (OFR), created under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 to monitor systemic risk in the financial system, also share the view that the five Wall Street mega banks referenced above are what Congress and the federal bank regulators need to closely monitor.

In a comprehensive report in February 2015, OFR researchers sounded the alarm that those five mega banks posed enormous risks to U.S. financial stability. Systemic risk scores were based on size, interconnectedness, substitutability, complexity, and cross-jurisdictional activities.

According to the OFR researchers Meraj Allahrakha, Paul Glasserman, and H. Peyton Young:

“The larger the bank, the greater the potential spillover if it defaults; the higher its leverage, the more prone it is to default under stress; and the greater its connectivity index, the greater is the share of the default that cascades onto the banking system. The product of these three factors provides an overall measure of the contagion risk that the bank poses for the financial system. Five of the U.S. banks had particularly high contagion index values — Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs.”

It’s certainly not that Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley have cleaned up their act so much that they no longer need to be a focus of Congressional Committees. As recently as May 6 of this year, Wall Street On Parade reported as follows:

“We’ve been reading SEC filings for more than 35 years. We have to sadly say that the 10-Q that Goldman Sachs filed with the SEC on May 2, for the quarter ending March 31, 2022, shocks even our well-documented assessment of Wall Street as a crime syndicate. Goldman Sachs has listed pretty much everything the firm does as a target of an ongoing investigation, notwithstanding that the company and a subsidiary were criminally charged by the U.S. Department of Justice in the looting and bribery scandal known as 1MDB in October 2020, admitted to the charges, and had to pay over $2.9 billion. The good news is that Goldman Sachs’ Dark Pools are one of the areas it lists as being under a probe.”

On August 4, Goldman Sachs provided the following disclosure when it filed its quarterly report (10-Q) with the Securities and Exchange Commission:

“The firm is cooperating with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in connection with an investigation of GS Bank USA’s credit card account management practices, including with respect to the application of refunds, crediting of nonconforming payments, billing error resolution, advertisements, and reporting to credit bureaus.”

According to our review of the complaints filed in the database of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, hundreds of Apple credit card holders are alleging being put through a living hell by Goldman Sachs when fraudulent charges are made on their Apple credit card and a host of other problems.

Then there was the report just last Friday by Bloomberg News that the federally-insured online bank operated by Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Marcus, was under investigation by the Federal Reserve. The article provides this bleak assessment of a deposit-taking bank backed by the U.S. taxpayer:

“At mid-year, the bank’s own internal forecast estimated the business would post a record loss of more than $1.2 billion this year.

“The cash burn has gotten all the more painful in recent months as a pandemic-era surge in Wall Street deals subsides, making Marcus a fraught topic among Goldman managers. Investment bankers and traders bracing for job cuts or lower bonuses are competing with a division that was once supposed to break even in 2022, but has instead eaten up more than $4 billion since inception in 2016. That’s not including Goldman’s acquisition of installment-loans provider GreenSky Inc. in a deal initially valued at more than $2.2 billion last year at what turned out to be the peak of the market for fintech ventures.”

Morgan Stanley is currently under an investigation by the Justice Department for the manner in which it has handled block trades, according to Bloomberg News. It has put several of its traders on leave as that probe continues.

There is also the unanswered question as to how many more Archegos-type of family office hedge fund clients might be lurking under the radar at Morgan Stanley, which owns two federally-insured banks. Morgan Stanley admitted to losing $911 million last year when Archegos blew up with derivatives created by Morgan Stanley and other Wall Street mega banks. See our report: Justice Department and SEC Portray Serially-Charged Banks on Wall Street as Hapless Victims of Archegos Fraud. Nobody’s Buying It.

Last year, the Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committees held their Big Bank hearing in the early spring. We kept asking Committee aides when the hearing was coming this year. We continued to hear back that it will be coming. The mysterious disappearance of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs from this week’s hearings may simply result from the refusal of their CEOs to appear before Congress. Since both firms are under probes, their legions of lawyers might have advised the CEOs to simply decline the invitation to appear.

But that doesn’t answer the question as to why the Committees wouldn’t have demanded their appearance by subpoena. According to the Congressional Research Service, the Senate Banking Committee has adopted a rule that requires a majority vote to issue a subpoena for documents or witnesses. The ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, Republican Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, does not seem like a person who would agree to subpoena the CEO of Goldman Sachs to appear. Since 2011, Goldman Sachs ranks as Toomey’s third largest campaign donor.

According to the Congressional Research Service, the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, Democrat Maxine Waters, can issue a subpoena as long as she first “consults” with the ranking member. Currently that ranking member is the right-wing Republican Patrick McHenry of North Carolina whose top-10 largest campaign donors in the current election cycle include Wall Street mega banks, private equity firms and asset managers, among others.

A different campaign money trail might possibly explain why Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley got a pass without a subpoena forcing their presence. Jones Day, the law firm that dominated the Donald Trump administration and sent 12 of its law partners to executive branch positions on the very day that Trump was inaugurated, is also long-time counsel to both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Curiously, while Jones Day’s employees and their family members gave 74.62 percent of their campaign donations to Republicans in the 2016 presidential election that put Trump in the White House, in the current campaign cycle 68 percent of their donations have gone to Democrats, for a whopping $338,654 in campaign donations thus far.

According to campaign finance records at the Federal Election Commission, individual partners at Jones Day have made some very generous donations to Democrats. Hilda Galvan, the Partner-in-Charge of Jones Day’s Dallas office, gave a check of $36,500 to the Democratic National Committee in December.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) received a February donation of $10,000 from Edward Nalbantian, Of Counsel at Jones Day, who has a “particular focus on over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives….” Another $5,000 went to the DCCC in February from Cynthia Cwik, who listed her employer as Jones Day although she does not currently appear on its website as a lawyer there. In June of last year, law partner Robert Rawson gave $10,000 to the Ohio Democratic Party. And in September of last year, Jones Day partner in Financial Markets, Linda Hesse, contributed $5,000 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

Could it be possible that someone from Jones Day negotiated a pass for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley at this week’s hearings?

Jones Day was outside counsel for the Trump 2016 and Trump 2020 political campaigns and represented Trump in lawsuits seeking to stop votes from being counted in the 2020 election. A New York Times Magazine article last month by David Enrich, with a subtitle of “The untold story of Jones Day’s push to move the American government and courts to the right,” characterized Jones Day as follows:

“Jones Day’s influence seems poised to grow. This year, it has been collecting fees from a remarkable assortment of prominent Republican players: a Trump political-action committee; moderates like Senator Susan Collins; Trump allies like Dr. Mehmet Oz; hard-liners like Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the House minority leader, and Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin — not to mention an assortment of super PACs supporting fringe candidates like Herschel Walker, the former N.F.L. star who is running for a Senate seat in Georgia. [Jones Day partner Noel] Francisco recently represented former Attorney General Bill Barr before the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. McGahn recently began representing Senator Lindsey Graham as he fights a grand jury subpoena to testify about Trump’s efforts to overturn the election results in Georgia.”

The “McGahn” referenced in the above sentence is Don McGahn, a law partner from Jones Day who became Trump’s first White House Counsel. McGahn has returned to Jones Day. Its website says he is now available for “high stakes matters that require navigating and challenging assertions of government authority.”

Who else is it that has attempted to undermine government authority for the last 40 years: Libertarian billionaire Charles Koch and his fossil fuels conglomerate, Koch Industries. Jones Day has a long-term history of legally representing Koch Industries, its subsidiaries and at least one of its front groups, Freedom Partners.

The bottom line here is that as long as Congress fails to pass sweeping campaign finance reform, trust in Congress and the U.S. government will continue to erode and the threats to both democracy in America and its financial system will continue to grow.

GOLD/SILVER

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

For your interest….


Kinross Gold wins hedge fund’s favor with buyback plan

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-09-19 21:29Section: Daily Dispatches

By Noah Zivitz
BNN Bloomberg
Monday, September 19, 2022

Kinross Gold Corp. announced plans to ramp up its share repurchases subsequent to talks with a renowned activist investor and other shareholders.
 
The Toronto-based miner said in a news release today that it will aim to buy back US$300 million of its shares before the end of this year. It added that it will allocate 75% of excess cash to buybacks in 2023 and 2024.

Kinross said the updated strategy stems from talks with Elliott Investment Management and an unspecified number of other investors. It also cautioned that buybacks in 2023 and 2024 are contingent on the company’s net leverage ratio remaining below the current level, and stated the repurchases would be paused in the event of a ratings downgrade, a significant drop in the price of gold, or major operational setbacks.
 
An Elliott portfolio manager saluted the Kinross and said the hedge fund will remain in contact with the company.
 
“Kinross today possesses a high-quality, Americas-focused portfolio with strong potential for future growth through Great Bear, yet it trades at a significant discount to both its peers and to the value of its assets. We believe that with this new capital-allocation framework, Kinross is taking a major step toward closing that gap and realizing the upside potential in its stock,” said Mark Cicirelli, a portfolio manager at Elliott, in the release.
 
The announcement didn’t include any details about Elliott’s investment in Kinross and a spokesperson couldn’t immediately be reached to confirm the investment manager’s stake.

Elliott’s most recent 13F quarterly filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission didn’t list Kinross as one of its holdings as of June 30. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/kinross-gold-wins-hedge-fund-s-favour-with-buyback-plan-1.1820657

* * *

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: COFFEE

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.0128

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0203

SHANGHAI CLOSED: UP 6.80 PTS OR 0.22%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 215.45 PTS OR 1.16%

2. Nikkei closed UP 120.77 PTS OR .44%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  109.62/Euro FALLS TO 0.9994

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 143.58/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.913%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.189%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.056%…** DANGEROUS

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.44//

3j Gold at $1667.30 silver at: 19.26  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 24/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 59.94//

3m oil into the 85 dollar handle for WTI and  92 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 143.58DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9658– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9655well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.549  UP 6 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.568 UP 7 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,31…GETTTING DANGEROUS

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Slide As Hawkish Rikshock Sends Dollar, Yields Higher Again Ahead Of Fed

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 07:44 AM

Market sentiment was quite cheerful heading into the overnight session, with futures hitting a third-day high of 3,936 thanks to yesterday’ late day delta squeeze (plunge in VIX as both calls and especially puts were sold) but then it quickly soured after first German PPI came in at a mindblowing 45.8% (vs expectations of 37.1%) the highest on record since World War II…

…but what really spooked futures was the record hike by the Swedish central bank, the Riksbank, which pushed the repo rate higher by a more than expected 100bps to 1.75%, and even though the central bank eased back on terminal rate expectations, the market still saw the Riksbank surprise as potentially indicative of what the BOE and Fed may do in the coming hours.

As such, European stocks fell with US equity futures, giving up early gains, as traders braced for another supersized US rate hike amid rising anxiety the Federal Reserve could overtighten and raise the odds of a hard landing. Europe’ Stoxx 600 Index dropped 0.8%, paced by losses on real estate and miners as US equity futures also stumbled those the tech-heavy and rate-sensitive Nasdaq 100 underperforming S&P 500 peers. As of 730am, S&P futures were down 0.4% and Nasdaq contracts were down 0.5%. 10Y yields hit a fresh 11 year high as the dollar surged and gold resumed its slide.

In premarket trading, Ford shares dropped 5.2% after the carmaker said 3Q supply costs were running $1b above expectations and warned that EBIT could be in the $1.4b -$1.7b range, below what was previously foreseen. General Motors stock also slid 2.3% in premarket trading. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Change Healthcare shares rise 7.1% in premarket trading after winning court approval for the $7.8b acquisition by UnitedHealth, defeating a Justice Department lawsuit that had sought to block the deal
  • US- listed Macau casino stocks rise in premarket trading, on the possibility that Hong Kong would ease Covid restrictions such as mandatory hotel quarantine. Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts gain about 3% in US premarket trading; Keep an eye on Melco (MLCO US) and MGM Resorts (MGM US) when trading volume picks up
  • Western Digital shares slid 1.7% in premarket trading as Deutsche Bank cut the recommendation on the stock to hold from buy, saying it’s difficult to see meaningful upside in the next six to nine months as oversupply in the flash memory market persists
  • Watch Cognex shares after the company boosted its revenue guidance for the third quarter; and the guidance beat the average analyst estimate

The Fed kicks off its meeting today and is expected to again hike rates by 75 basis points Wednesday – now that Timiraos has taken off 100bps off the table – signal rates are heading above 4% and will then pause. Market participants have dialed back expectations of an even larger increase and only two of 96 economists in a Bloomberg survey now predict a full-point move.

“The Federal Reserve is likely tightening policy straight into the teeth of a recession,” Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, wrote in an email.  “The stock market’s addiction to Fed easing when stocks decline may be what Jerome Powell is aiming to quash by aggressively hiking rates, in addition to inflation.”

Meanwhile in rates, Treasury 10-year yields topped 3.5% rising to a fresh 11.5 year high, while yields on the more policy-sensitive two-year rate hit the highest since 2007 and are poised to crack above 4%, reflecting hard-landing fears. In a worrying trend for stocks, real rates – Treasury yields adjusted for inflation – rose to the highest level since 2011. When they were pinned in negative territory during a decade of easy-money policies, real rates had been a key driver of risk-asset rallies.

Markets have fairly priced in yield on the two-year Treasury inching closer to 4% and “it might scratch a bit higher, but not an awful lot at this point,” Peter Kinsella, head of foreign exchange strategy at Union Bancaire Privee Ubp SA, said on Bloomberg Television. It would still be reasonable for the 10-year Treasury yield to go towards 3.5% or 3.7%, “but there’s probably not a lot more juice in that trade,” he said.

In Europe the Stoxx 50 fell 0.5%, reversing earlier gains with the UK’s FTSE 100 flat but outperforms peers, IBEX lags, dropping 0.8%. Real estate, retailers and miners are the worst-performing sectors.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, on track to snap a five-day losing streak, amid signals that Hong Kong will move toward easing Covid restrictions.  The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index gained as much as 1% as Tencent, Alibaba and TSMC provided the most support. Benchmarks across the region rose.  Indexes in Hong Kong gained at least 1.2%, with one key gauge climbing from the edge of a bear market. Hong Kong’s chief executive said the city wants to relax Covid travel curbs after nearly three years of restrictions. The Hang Seng Tech Index added 2%.  Australia’s main gauge rose more than 1%, led by the materials sector. Japan’s stock market advanced despite high inflation data, after being closed Monday.

“China’s reopening has helped revive sentiment in Asia this week,” said Charu Chanana, a senior strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. “There’s some level of positioning there ahead of a slew of central bank meetings this week, but volatility will likely remain elevated.” Despite Tuesday’s rally, Asia’s benchmark is still close to its lowest level since the middle of 2020 amid concerns over higher US interest rates and the dollar’s strength.  Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by 75-basis-point at a policy meeting on Wednesday. Investors are also awaiting other central bank decisions this week from nations including the Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan and Japan

Some more details: Japanese stocks advanced, tracking a rebound in US shares, as investors continued to weigh the market impact of further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Tokyo’s stock market was closed Monday for a holiday.  The Topix Index rose 0.5% to 1,947.27 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.4% to 27,688.42. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 2.2%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 1,481 rose and 582 fell, while 106 were unchanged. “Assuming it is 75bps, the thing to consider is where it will go from there, as I think that the rate hike will remain hawkish as far as the Jackson Hole and economic indicators are concerned,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management. “A comment that accelerates the rate hike would be negative, while a comment that takes the economy into consideration would be positive for the stocks.”  Traders are betting the Fed will hike by 75 basis points Wednesday. 

India stock indexes rose for the second day, driven by a continuing rally in consumer goods makers and a surge in healthcare stocks. The S&P BSE Sensex gained 1% to 59,719.74 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index rose 1.1%. The main indexes rose as much as 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively but failed to hold the advance.  “Intraday volatility could be the ongoing theme for markets as investors world over are bracing for a stiff interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve to weigh on rising inflation,” said Prashanth Tapse, an analyst with Mehta Securities.   All of the 19 sector sub-indexes traded higher, led by a gauge of healthcare companies. Banking and consumer goods stocks continued their climb on expectations of a demand surge during the upcoming festive season. ICICI Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 2%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 26 rose and 4 fell.

In rates, the Treasury curve bear-flattened and yields rose by 4-5bps as Treasuries extend Monday’s session slide. Supply pressure in the form of 20-year bond auction awaits for Tuesday’s session, before Fed meeting Wednesday where OIS has eased slightly, pricing in 78bp of hikes for the meeting, following WSJ report that a three-quarter point move is expected. Core European rates underperform, led by gilts catching up from Monday UK’s holiday.  Bunds fell, led by the belly of the curve, with yields rising up to 10bps as money markets continued to add to ECB tightening. UK bonds lead the wider market lower, headed by the short end and belly of the curve, and underperforming bunds and USTs as they catch up after Monday’s holiday. Curves bear-flatten as money markets up their ECB and BOE rate-hike bets. Swedish front-end bond yields rose more than their German peers, in response to the front-loaded rate increase. Australia’s dollar and bond yields declined after minutes from the RBA’s September meeting showed the central bank is getting closer to “normal settings.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed a modest Asia session loss as the greenback advanced versus all of its Group-of-10 peers, with GBP and DKK the strongest performers in G-10 FX, NZD and NOK underperform. and yet as Bloomberg notes, options bets in the dollar are the least bullish they have been this year before the Federal Reserve was expected to announce an interest-rate increase. Some more details:

  • The euro gave up gains to touch parity against the dollar, despite a record German PPI print (the highest since WWII)
  • Sweden’s krona erased gains after initially rallying on the Riksbank’s surprise jumbo hike, as the market had priced in a more aggressive profile for the rate path, with a peak at around 3.5%.
  • The pound was supported by growing speculation that the Bank of England may raise interest rates by 75 basis points later this week. Markets were also anticipating a speech by the UK’s finance minister, who is expected to outline details for a big spending plan to help households through an energy crisis in coming months
  • Gilts dropped, catching up with Monday’s bond tumble when UK markets were closed for a holiday

In commodities, WTI drifts 0.5% higher to trade near $86.19. Spot gold falls roughly $8 to trade near $1,668/oz. Spot silver loses 1.3% near $19. European natural gas benchmark futures drop much as 6.8% for a fourth session of declines, the longest run since July.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin struggled to return to the $20,000 level. Oil slipped below $86 per barrel and gold fell.

To the day ahead now. In data we have US August housing starts, building permits, Germany August PPI, Italy July current account balance, July ECB current account, Canada August CPI, while the ECB’s Muller will give remarks.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% to 3,911.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.5% to 405.78
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 150.68
  • MXAPJ up 1.0% to 493.17
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,688.42
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,947.27
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 18,781.42
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,122.41
  • Sensex up 1.5% to 60,021.83
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 6,806.43
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,367.85
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.86%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0007
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,669.80
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 109.80

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Treasury two-year yields are poised to crack above 4% for the first time since 2007 as the Federal Reserve’s steepest tightening cycle in a generation drives them higher
  • ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said interest rates remain far from levels that would restrict economic expansion in the euro zone
  • The German government released another 2.5 billion euros ($2.5 billion) of credit lines to secure gas supplies, as it writes off Russia as a reliable energy supplier
  • Hungary said it was prepared to meet EU demands that it take action to curb fraud and corruption after the bloc threatened to freeze 7.5 billion euros ($7.5 billion) of funds that have been earmarked for the country

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian stocks followed suit to the improved risk appetite stateside but with the advances capped ahead of this week’s risk events. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in the commodity-related sectors and with resilience in nearly all industries aside from healthcare, while the RBA minutes provided little in the way of new information but continued to point to a future slowdown in the hiking cycle. Nikkei 225 gained on return from the extended weekend but was off its highs after the mostly firmer-than-expected Japanese inflation data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the upbeat mood with Hong Kong boosted by outperformance in tech stocks and as authorities consider adjusting COVID restrictions, while the advances in the mainland were contained after the PBoC maintained its 1-Year and 5-Year Loan Prime Rates as expected. “Investors should not be pessimistic about the (Chinese) stock market, as multiple signs emerge that bode well for equities”, according to the Securities Daily cited by SCMP.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Shanghai unvels RMB 1.8trln (around USD 257bln) worth of inftrastructure investments, has launched eight of them.
  • Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee said they are exploring further adjustments to COVID policy and aim to make an announcement soon with the details to be announced in one go. Lee added they would like to facilitate events for Hong Kong and bring back activities to the city, while they would want to stay connected with the world and allow an orderly opening up.
  • Japan’s Ministry of Finance said the government is to spend JPY 3.48tln in budget reserves to manage price hikes and COVID-19, while Finance Minister Suzuki said they will create an additional budget in addition to the reserve fund and for the time being, reserve money will be used for essential output. There were also comments from LDP Secretary-General Motegi that a stimulus package of at least JPY 15tln is needed to fill the output gap.

Bourses across Europe have been dipping from best levels, with sentiment somewhat sullied by a marked and unexpected acceleration in German PPI, coupled with a larger-than-forecast Riksbank rate hike to kick off the myriad of G10 central banks this week. The bias across sectors has titled more towards the defensive side, with Food & Beverages, Personal Goods, and Healthcare making their way up the ranks. US equity futures have slipped into negative territory, but the breadth of the market remains shallow as the clock ticks down to the FOMC tomorrow. German Gov’t draft law re. gas levy says Co’s receiving it may not see any notable profits, manager slaries must be limited. Restriction on profits to those with a market share above 1.0%, via Reuters sources.

Top European News

  • Traders Wager BOE Will Join Fed With Two Jumbo Hikes by Year- End
  • Germany to Spend Another $2.5 Billion on LNG to Ease Crisis
  • UBS’s Khan ‘Confident’ on Asset Target Despite Market Rout
  • Russia to Flood Asia With Fuel as Europe Ramps Up Sanctions
  • Riksbank Kicks Off Global Hiking With 100 Basis-Point Move

Central Banks

  • WSJ’s Timiraos writes “Fed’s Third Straight 0.75-Point Interest-Rate Rise Is Anticipated” and signaling intentions to raise and hold the benchmark above 4.0% in the months ahead, via WSJ.
  • Riksbank hikes its Rate by 100bps to 1.75% (exp. 75bps hike to 1.50%); Forecast indicates rate will be raised further in the coming six months. Full details, reaction & newsquawk analysis available here.
  • ECB’s Muller says rates are far from the level that would slow the economy; rates are still low in the historical context.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9468 vs exp. 6.9483 (prev. 6.9396).
  • PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (Sep) 3.65% vs. Exp. 3.65% (Prev. 3.65%)
  • PBoC 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (Sep) 4.30% vs. Exp. 4.30% (Prev. 4.30%)
  • RBA September meeting minutes stated members saw the case for a slower pace of rate increase as becoming stronger as the level of the Cash Rate increases, while the board expects to increase rates further over months ahead but is not on a pre-set path. RBA Board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure inflation returns to target over time and members noted that inflation in Australia was at its highest level in several decades which was expected to increase further over the months ahead with inflation expected to peak later this year and then decline back towards the 2-3% target range. Furthermore, the Board acknowledged that monetary policy operates with a lag and interest rates had been increased quite quickly and were getting closer to normal settings.

FX

  • DXY remains towards the top of today’s intraday parameter but under the 110.00 mark.
  • SEK was flagging near recent lows against the Euro and Dollar before the Riksbank delivered a hawkish surprise by raising rates a bigger than expected 100 bp (vs +75 bp consensus).
  • NZD remained under pressure and extended its decline against the Greenback to the low 0.5900 zone, while sliding through 1.1300 vs the Aussie.
  • JPY failed to glean much impetus from firmer than Japanese inflation metrics on the premise that the BoJ is unlikely to budge from its accommodative stance this week.

Fixed Income

  • Debt futures continue to plunge amidst fleeting bouts of consolidation and lame rebounds – the latest catalyst came via Sweden’s Riksbank.
  • Bunds have been down to 141.08 for a 154 tick loss on the day, Gilts to 104.33, 91 ticks below par.
  • US 10-year T-note fell to 114-01+, with corresponding yields soaring towards 3.55%.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures hold onto modest gains, but the upside remains capped by the cautious risk tone in early European trade. Overnight, the complex was relatively uneventful as it took a breather from the recent volatility.
  • Russia’s government wants to collect about RUB 1.4tln from raw material exporters next year to cover the budget deficit and proposed to raise the export duty on gas to 50% among other measures, according to Kommersant.
  • Gazprom says it will halt power of Siberia gas pipeline to China on Sept 22-29, citing maintenance, via Reuters.
  • Aramco CEO says the response to the global energy crisis thus far shows a deep misunderstanding of how we got there, increases in oil/gas investment are “too little too late” in the short term; when the global economy recovers, can expect demand to rebound further – eliminating the little spare oil production capacity available.
  • Spot gold is subdued by the Dollar but in recent ranges after hitting multi-year lows last week as the yellow metals look ahead to the Fed.
  • LME futures resumed trade following the long weekend, with 3M copper flat at the time of writing under the USD 7,800/t, mimicking the risk tone and awaiting the next catalyst.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Aug. Building Permits MoM, est. -4.8%, prior -1.3%, revised -0.6%
  • 08:30: Aug. Housing Starts MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -9.6%
  • 08:30: Aug. Building Permits, est. 1.6m, prior 1.67m, revised 1.69m
  • 08:30: Aug. Housing Starts, est. 1.45m, prior 1.45m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It was an extraordinary day here in the UK yesterday for the Queen’s funeral. The vast majority of the world’s leaders and dignitaries were present, hundreds of thousands lined the streets of London, and it was broadcast to an estimated global TV audience of four billion. It was hard not to get swept up in the emotion, pageantry, and enormity of the event. It’s also hard to imagine that the world will see a similar type of event again in our lifetime.

With all this going on, markets started the week on a quiet note, with the UK closed, Japan on holiday, and the data docket light. Yields took another leg higher though and curves flattened on the prospect of another round of global central bank tightening this week. Meanwhile, global equity markets were looking for direction, with European equities slightly lower, and US equities tracking flat for most of the day until a strong late rally (S&P +0.69%) changed the complexion of the day a bit.

The central bank focus remains the main game in town. With Fed pricing for Wednesday (79.8bps of hikes implied by the close, our US economics full preview here) still incorporating some premium of a 100 basis point hike, markets were watching for any blackout period communications from the Fed. A prominent Fed watcher from the WSJ did have a piece that garnered attention, but it was focused more on the previously-recognised pivot from Chair Powell to focus more on fighting inflation rather than providing a strong signal about Wednesday’s potential policy action one way or another. In turn, implied policy pricing for Wednesday was perfectly flat on the day.

Farther out the curve, however, rates markets priced in tighter Fed policy for longer, with the entire Treasury curve selling off, driving a bear flattening. 2yr Treasury yields increased +6.9bps to 3.94%, their highest levels since 2007, while 10yrs were +4.1bps higher to 3.49%, the highest since 2011, leaving the yield curve at -45.0bps and just short of its most inverted levels reached this summer (-49.6bps). Yields have pulled back a touch in Asia though, with 10yr USTs (-1.95 bps) at 3.47% and 2yr yield trading -1bps lower at 3.93% as we go to press.

In line with the tighter expected policy path, real yields are bearing the brunt of the recent selloff, with 10yr real yields increasing +6.5bps to 1.14%, their highest since 2018. The selloff and curve move was replicated in bunds, where 2yrs increased +8.8bps to 1.59% and 10yrs climbed +4.7bps to 1.80%, its highest since early 2014. 10yr OATs were in line with bunds, increasing +4.6bps, while BTPs marginally underperformed, increasing +5.8bps.

The STOXX 600 was as much as -1.0% lower intraday, but climbed through the afternoon to finish just in the red at -.09%, while the CAC marginally underperformed, falling -0.26% whilst the DAX managed to eke out a +0.49% gain. Elsewhere out of Germany, regulators reported that German gas storage levels were at 89.67% as of yesterday, something to keep an eye on as we head into winter. The gas build has been very impressive but with the strong possibility of there being no more Russian gas flowing this winter, unless temperatures are mild, it’s likely that rationing, in some shape or form, is likely.

US equities, opened nearly -1.0% lower, but quickly rallied to flat where it oscillated around most of the day before the late rally send it up +0.69%. 9 out of 11 S&P sectors ended in the green, with sectoral dispersion pointing toward a cyclical over defensives day – materials (+1.63%), discretionary (+1.34%) and industrials (+1.33%) led while health care (-0.54%) and real estate lagged (-0.22%). The NASDAQ was slightly stronger, increasing +0.76%, but very much followed the same intraday price action as the S&P.

In terms of data, the NAHB Housing Market Index declined to 46 (vs. 47 expectations and 49 prior), but didn’t necessarily tell us anything we didn’t already know: housing market sentiment is bad. It remains one of the sectors where the impacts of Fed tightening has already been acutely felt.

Asian equity markets are broadly higher this morning following the late rally on Wall Street overnight. As I type, the Hang Seng (+1.44%) is leading gains across the region, rebounding from two consecutive sessions of losses while Chinese shares are also higher with the Shanghai Composite (+0.46%) and CSI (+0.33%) both up in early trade after the lifting of Covid-19 lockdowns in both Chengdu and Dalian yesterday. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.42%) as well as the Kospi (+0.33%) have held on to their gains.

DMs stock futures are pointing to a positive start with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.20%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.23%) and DAX (+0.53%) are edging higher.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s core consumer inflation quickened to +2.8% y/y in August (v/s +2.7% expected), notching its fastest annual pace in nearly eight years as pressures from higher raw material costs and a weak yen broadened. Markets were expecting a +2.7% gain compared to July’s +2.4% rise.

Meanwhile, headline inflation hit 3.0% y/y in August, the highest since 1991. The data will be slightly uncomfortable for the BoJ as they meet on Thursday but they are not expected to change direction yet from their increasingly outlier zero rates policy stance on the global stage.

Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept its main lending rates unchanged leaving the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) intact at 3.65% and the 5-year rate, a reference for mortgages, at 4.3% after a 15bps cut in August.

The latest minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicate that the board members “saw the case for a slower pace of increase in interest rates as becoming stronger” over the months ahead but reiterated that the policy is not on a pre-set path considering the uncertainties surrounding the outlook for inflation and growth. Actually our economists have upgraded their RBA call to a 50bps hike in October (from 25bps) in line with the global direction of travel. They don’t think the RBA will step down to 25bps hikes until November and December.

To the day ahead now. In data we have US August housing starts, building permits, Germany August PPI, Italy July current account balance, July ECB current account, Canada August CPI, while the ECB’s Muller will give remarks.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Sentiment sullied after hotter-than-expected Japanese CPI, eye-watering German PPI, and a jumbo Riksbank hike – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 06:44 AM

  • Bourses across Europe have been dipping with sentiment initially sullied by a marked and unexpected acceleration in German PPI
  • US equity futures have slipped into negative territory, but the breadth of the market remains shallow as the clock ticks down to the FOMC tomorrow
  • DXY remains towards the top of today’s intraday band but under the 110.00 mark, JPY failed to gain impetus from hotter-than-expected Japanese CPI
  • Debt futures continue to plunge amidst fleeting bouts of consolidation and lame rebounds; US 10yr yield topped 3.55%
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI, ECB’s Lagarde, and US 20yr Supply

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

20th September 2022

LOOKING AHEAD

  • Canadian CPI, ECB’s Lagarde and US 20yr Supply.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Russian forces carried out a missile strike which narrowly missed the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, according to Kyiv officials cited by the FT.
  • UK is to spend at least GBP 2.3bln on the Ukraine war effort next year, according to FT.
  • Turkish President Erdogan says Russia must return the occupied territories to Ukraine as part of a peaceful settlement. Adding, “What prompted us to mediate is my belief that Putin is ready to end this as soon as possible”, via AJABreaking citing PBS.

OTHER

  • US Secretary of State Blinken hosted Armenian and Azerbaijan foreign ministers for the first direct talks since recent fighting and Blinken encouraged Armenia and Azerbaijan leaders to meet again before month-end, according to Reuters.

EUROPEAN TRADE

CENTRAL BANKS

  • WSJ’s Timiraos writes “Fed’s Third Straight 0.75-Point Interest-Rate Rise Is Anticipated” and signaling intentions to raise and hold the benchmark above 4.0% in the months ahead, via WSJ.
  • Riksbank hikes its Rate by 100bps to 1.75% (exp. 75bps hike to 1.50%); Forecast indicates rate will be raised further in the coming six monthsFull details, reaction & newsquawk analysis available here.
  • ECB’s Muller says rates are far from the level that would slow the economy; rates are still low in the historical context.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9468 vs exp. 6.9483 (prev. 6.9396).
  • PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (Sep) 3.65% vs. Exp. 3.65% (Prev. 3.65%)
  • PBoC 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (Sep) 4.30% vs. Exp. 4.30% (Prev. 4.30%)
  • RBA September meeting minutes stated members saw the case for a slower pace of rate increase as becoming stronger as the level of the Cash Rate increases, while the board expects to increase rates further over months ahead but is not on a pre-set path. RBA Board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure inflation returns to target over time and members noted that inflation in Australia was at its highest level in several decades which was expected to increase further over the months ahead with inflation expected to peak later this year and then decline back towards the 2-3% target range. Furthermore, the Board acknowledged that monetary policy operates with a lag and interest rates had been increased quite quickly and were getting closer to normal settings.

EQUITIES

  • Bourses across Europe have been dipping from best levels, with sentiment somewhat sullied by a marked and unexpected acceleration in German PPI, coupled with a larger-than-forecast Riksbank rate hike to kick off the myriad of G10 central banks this week.
  • The bias across sectors has titled more towards the defensive side, with Food & Beverages, Personal Goods, and Healthcare making their way up the ranks.
  • US equity futures have slipped into negative territory, but the breadth of the market remains shallow as the clock ticks down to the FOMC tomorrow.
  • German Gov’t draft law re. gas levy says Co’s receiving it may not see any notable profits, manager slaries must be limited. Restriction on profits to those with a market share above 1.0%, via Reuters sources.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY remains towards the top of today’s intraday parameter but under the 110.00 mark.
  • SEK was flagging near recent lows against the Euro and Dollar before the Riksbank delivered a hawkish surprise by raising rates a bigger than expected 100 bp (vs +75 bp consensus).
  • NZD remained under pressure and extended its decline against the Greenback to the low 0.5900 zone, while sliding through 1.1300 vs the Aussie.
  • JPY failed to glean much impetus from firmer than Japanese inflation metrics on the premise that the BoJ is unlikely to budge from its accommodative stance this week.
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Debt futures continue to plunge amidst fleeting bouts of consolidation and lame rebounds – the latest catalyst came via Sweden’s Riksbank.
  • Bunds have been down to 141.08 for a 154 tick loss on the day, Gilts to 104.33, 91 ticks below par.
  • US 10-year T-note fell to 114-01+, with corresponding yields soaring towards 3.55%.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures hold onto modest gains, but the upside remains capped by the cautious risk tone in early European trade. Overnight, the complex was relatively uneventful as it took a breather from the recent volatility.
  • Russia’s government wants to collect about RUB 1.4tln from raw material exporters next year to cover the budget deficit and proposed to raise the export duty on gas to 50% among other measures, according to Kommersant.
  • Gazprom says it will halt power of Siberia gas pipeline to China on Sept 22-29, citing maintenance, via Reuters.
  • Aramco CEO says the response to the global energy crisis thus far shows a deep misunderstanding of how we got there, increases in oil/gas investment are “too little too late” in the short term; when the global economy recovers, can expect demand to rebound further – eliminating the little spare oil production capacity available.
  • Spot gold is subdued by the Dollar but in recent ranges after hitting multi-year lows last week as the yellow metals look ahead to the Fed.
  • LME futures resumed trade following the long weekend, with 3M copper flat at the time of writing under the USD 7,800/t, mimicking the risk tone and awaiting the next catalyst.
  • Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is subdued but just about holds onto a USD 19,000 handle whilst Ethereum meanders around 1,350.
  • Wintermute, cryptocurrency market maker, has been hacked for USD 160mln according to the CEO, remains solvent.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • EU Affairs Ministers meeting today are to discuss proposals to remove/limit the unanimity rule on foreign affair matters, via Politico.

NOTABLE EU DATA

  • German Producer Prices YY (Aug) 45.8% vs. Exp. 37.1% (Prev. 37.2%), MM (Aug) 7.9% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 5.3%)
  • Swiss Government sees 2022 GDP (Sport Event Adj.) growth at +2.0% (prev. +2.6%), sees 2023 GDP (Sport Event Adj.) growth At +1.1% (prev. +1.9%). Sees 2022 CPI +3.0% (prev. +2.5%), 2023 CPI seen at +2.3% (prev. +1.4%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • World Bank’s Malpass said a strong dollar is part of the resilience underpinning US financial markets, according to Reuters.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks followed suit to the improved risk appetite stateside but with the advances capped ahead of this week’s risk events.
  • ASX 200 was led higher by strength in the commodity-related sectors and with resilience in nearly all industries aside from healthcare, while the RBA minutes provided little in the way of new information but continued to point to a future slowdown in the hiking cycle.
  • Nikkei 225 gained on return from the extended weekend but was off its highs after the mostly firmer-than-expected Japanese inflation data.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the upbeat mood with Hong Kong boosted by outperformance in tech stocks and as authorities consider adjusting COVID restrictions, while the advances in the mainland were contained after the PBoC maintained its 1-Year and 5-Year Loan Prime Rates as expected.
  • “Investors should not be pessimistic about the (Chinese) stock market, as multiple signs emerge that bode well for equities”, according to the Securities Daily cited by SCMP.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • China’s Shanghai unvels RMB 1.8trln (around USD 257bln) worth of inftrastructure investments, has launched eight of them.
  • Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee said they are exploring further adjustments to COVID policy and aim to make an announcement soon with the details to be announced in one go. Lee added they would like to facilitate events for Hong Kong and bring back activities to the city, while they would want to stay connected with the world and allow an orderly opening up.
  • Japan’s Ministry of Finance said the government is to spend JPY 3.48tln in budget reserves to manage price hikes and COVID-19, while Finance Minister Suzuki said they will create an additional budget in addition to the reserve fund and for the time being, reserve money will be used for essential output. There were also comments from LDP Secretary-General Motegi that a stimulus package of at least JPY 15tln is needed to fill the output gap.

NOTABLE APAC DATA

  • Japanese National CPI YY (Aug) 3.0% vs Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%)
  • Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Aug) 2.8% vs Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.4%)
  • Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Aug) 1.6% vs Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.2%)

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.80 PTS OR 0.22%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 215.45 PTS OR 1.16%    /The Nikkei closed UP 120.77 PTS OR .44%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.17%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.0128//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.0203//    /Oil UP TO 85.80  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92,32    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

China’s Gasoline And Diesel Exports Exploded In August

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 11:30 AM

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

  • China exported a whopping 97.4% more gasoline in August 2022 than it did the year before.
  • This huge increase was largely due to a new batch of fuel export quotas amid weak domestic demand.
  • Diesel exports from China also increased substantially in August, a nearly 52% increase from the year before.

China exported 1.12 million tons of gasoline last month, which was a whopping 97.4% increase from the year before, customs data cited by Reuters showed.

The increase came on the back of a new batch of fuel export quotas amid lukewarm domestic demand. The new quotas also pushed diesel exports much higher, up by almost 52% from August 2021 at 830,000 tonnes.

The new quotas, issued in June and July, were expected to lift fuel exports substantially in August, with total gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel exports expected to hit between 2.4 and 2.6 million tons, according to an earlier Reuters report.

Exports of fuels for the full year, however, are expected to be much lower than in 2021 because of the smaller size of export quotas as Beijing tackles domestic fuel inflation. In fact, 2022 fuel exports are set to be 40% lower than fuel exports in 2021.

Data for the first eight months of the year shows a more than 30% decline in gasoline exports and a 78.3% drop in diesel fuel exports. Jet fuel exports inched up by 4.4% between January and August.

The diesel fuel export drop might be a cause for worry in global fuel markets as global diesel supply has tightened quite considerably. It is about to tighten further from next February when an EU embargo on Russian fuels will come into effect.

China is the only country in the world with the refining capacity to boost diesel output substantially, but export quotas are being held under tight control by Beijing, limiting its ability to utilize this capacity to alleviate the global diesel shortage.

“China also has the power to change the fate of the global diesel market, if it were to ease off the brakes on rationalizing its domestic refining industry,” Vortexa Chief Economist David Wech wrote at the end of August. 

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

GERMANY//EUROPE//ENERGY/

Mises on the upcoming energy crunch.  A must read

(Chen/Mises)

Germany’s (And Europe’s) Self-Inflicted Upcoming Energy Crunch

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Weimin Chen via The Mises Institute,

At the end of September 2021, the Nord Stream 2 project was a reality after many years of uncertainty. At that time, there were only a few more regulatory hurdles remaining for Germany and Russia to seal the deal on the long-awaited and highly controversial natural gas pipeline. Achieving such a feat would have been a milestone in energy cooperation between the two countries. Sadly, the regional order has tilted hard and quick off that track, and Europe has plunged into a perilous future of uncertainty.

In the first weeks of the Russian-initiated war in Ukraine, Germany, along with the rest of Europe, found itself backed into a corner regarding its energy sourcing as Western sanctions cut off routes and links in the established regional energy and financial infrastructures. There has been no perceptible success in breaking out of this bind. Instead, Germany has watched time tick by. Russia’s Gazprom recently cut gas flow for Nord Stream 1 to 20 percent of capacity.

German nuclear power plants remain mostly idle, with three facilities providing 13 percent of the country’s electricity compared to France’s 69 percent. Coal power plants have now ramped up output, with the inevitable approach of the fall and winter seasons in the near term.

Reality Sets In

Germany, and indeed the rest of the world, has operated on the expectation that the general uptrend of development and growth experienced in Western countries would continue alongside the increasing global ties that have created a landscape of abundance and increased the overall standard of living. But now the largest economy in Europe finds itself facing a serious precipice as the danger of significant hardship in the near term looms.

Public opinion reflected in a poll from mid-July shows that nearly one in two Germans are concerned that Germany is hurting itself more than it is impacting Russia’s political aims through tough sanctions. The layman’s gut feeling about this may well capture the reality that Germany’s sanctions on natural gas and energy in particular, as well as Western sanctions in general, have disproportionately self-harming effects. In a competitive enterprise as serious as war and national security, this would be nothing short of paramount negligence and self-sabotage.

Pain in Regression

Rising energy costs would inevitably hit the poorer and lower-income segment of the population and would certainly spell a difficult winter, indeed. The government has already started to encourage people to cut back and save energy in anticipation of energy shortages. In the face of the stark realities, some Germans are even turning to stockpiling wood, regressing from a modern energy infrastructure to seriously planning on engaging in the preindustrial practice of burning wood for warmth this winter. This is no trivial blow to the standard of living in one of the most developed countries in the world.

Leaders of the major industries that power the German economy have warned of serious problems for output in the absence of the established but now vulnerable energy infrastructure. The head of technology and engineering company Bosch has said that production could be halted at their factories.

Meanwhile, the CEO of Siemens explained that the steady flow of natural gas is existential to some industries such as glassmaking. The head of BASF has made similar comments regarding its manufacture of critical chemical products involved in the already squeezed areas of agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnologies around the world. This would in turn jeopardize the employment of all those who work in these industries, in a far-reaching ripple effect.

Flailing Policy Directions

Starting in October, Germany is set to implement a levy on all gas consumers to offset the difficulties energy providers in the country are facing as they pivot to alternative sources. According to German economy minister Robert Habeck, the levy would amount to between 1.5 and 5 euro cents per kilowatt hour, or about an additional €1,000 per year for a four-person household.

In the German government, criticism and doubt of the ruling coalition’s hardline stance against Russia is mounting. Chancellor Olaf Scholz adheres to the Western consensus of being unequivocally tough on Russia, while his former political opponents Annalena Baerbock and Christian Lindner, now foreign minister and finance minister, respectively, carry out Germany’s political, military, and financial backing of Ukraine in this conflict.

The realities of the harm that these anti-Russia policies have caused Germany have provided an opening to political opponents to take the contrary position, advocating an easing of Russia policy to ease the pressure that threatens to throttle the energy security of Germany and the rest of Europe. A pivot in Germany’s Russia policy would also represent a pivot away from Washington’s policy.

It can be seen as an opportunity for Germany to assert its decision-making and leadership position at the political level in Europe, not to mention as a stakeholder in its own sovereignty. Perhaps in this way, Germany can choose to spare Europe the economic pain brought about by this largely US-driven hawkish stance toward the East.

Even if Germany can find viable energy alternatives, reverse the closure of its nuclear power plants, or come to an agreement on gas delivery with Russia, the long-term East-West relationship has been damaged. The implications of this new geopolitical and regional order are severe, to say the least. A German crisis would be a crisis for all of Europe, one that would rock the entire European Union and the many economies that surround it.

END

GERMANY

Bundesbank sees German economic turmoil worsening this winter.  Germany is heading for a depression

(zerohedge)

Bundesbank Sees German Economic Turmoil Worsening All Winter Amid NatGas Rationing

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Russia’s reduction of natural gas exports to Europe’s largest economy, Germany, ahead of the cold season spells trouble. On Monday, the country’s central bank warned that the energy crisis could worsen as NatGas consumption is cut or rationed, leading to even more economic turmoil. 

Germany largely depends on Moscow’s NatGas flows, receiving about half of its supplies from Russia before the Ukraine conflict. But since the invasion, Kremlin-controlled energy giant Gazprom has reduced NatGas supplies to zero on the Nord Stream 1 to Germany. 

The Bundesbank forecasted the economy would shrink even if widespread rationing is averted as energy-intensive manufacturers would have to slash production. 

“Economic activity may pull back somewhat this quarter and shrink markedly in the autumn and winter months,” the central bank said, adding that it didn’t forecast this adverse scenario in a June report. 

Bundesbank continued: “There are mounting signs of a recession in the German economy in the sense of a clear, broad-based and prolonged decline in economic output.” It said a contraction is expected in the third quarter with deeper declines in economic activity in the fourth. 

“High inflation and uncertainty with regard to energy supply and its costs affect not only the gas and electricity-intensive industry and its export business and investments, but also private consumption and the service providers dependent on it,” the central bank said. 

The latest estimates from Bloomberg show Germany and much of the euro area has around an 80% recession probability in the next 12 months. 

… and also comes as the European Central Bank is inflicting pain on the bloc with aggressive rate hikes to address sky-high inflation. Two oversized rate hikes in July and September, and ECB officials promised more hikes into fall. Hiking into a downturn is grounds for policy error. 

The incoming German recession depression has been on everyone’s radar as things could materially worsen if NatGas supplies are rationed. Putin appears to be waging a multi-front war against Ukraine and the West, as he could singlehandedly force a recession in Germany and across the continent this winter. 

END

SPAIN/EUROPE/AMAZON

Amazon suspends construction of new warehouses in Spain as demand falters badly

(zerohedge)

Amazon “Suspends” Construction Of New Warehouses In Spain As Consumption Boom Falters

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Amazon has been determined to reduce the size of its massive fulfillment network in North America as consumers pull back on spending. Now the e-commerce giant has “suspended” construction work of new logistic centers in Spain, according to local news website El Confidencial

For some context, Amazon spent billions of dollars doubling its fulfillment network’s size in North America during the virus pandemic. MWPVL International Inc., which tracks Amazon’s real-estate deals, said the company canceled plans to open 42 US facilities totaling almost 25 million square feet this year. 

The reductions didn’t stop in North America. Amazon has also canceled European expansion projects, mainly in Spain, as slowing e-commerce sales growth means the company is undergoing belt-tightening measures.  

El Confidencial, citing unidentified company sources, said Amazon told its partners that construction of new warehouses in Spain would be suspended until 2024. 

Amazon is in “wait and see” as pandemic-driven online shopping boom has rapidly slowed as consumers return to brick-and-mortar stores. But what’s also concerning is energy hyperinflation has severely dented household spending on discretionary items. 

Amazon told Reuters they’re still “commitment to Spain” but see a period of uncertainty next year. Perhaps this is because European recession risks are flourishing over the next 12 months. 

Reducing warehouse operations in North America and Europe is a troubling sign of overcapacity issues and reflects souring consumer health. The question is if warehouse reductions in North America and the rest of the world are over. 

END

HUNGARY/EU

Hungary getting more angrier by the day.  Now Europe threatens to suspend E7.5 billion in funding due to Hungary cozying up to Putin by purchasing sanctioned ( and cheaper) Natural Gas. 

A must read…

(zerohedge)

EU Threatens To Suspend €7.5BN In Hungary Funding Amid Charges Of ‘Cozying Up’ To Putin

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 06:40 PM

The EU’s patience with Viktor Orban’s Hungary is running extremely thin after years of wrangling and threats from Brussels of triggering the “rule of law” mechanism, despite recently announced efforts of Budapest to establish an anti-graft agency. 

It seems Russia’s war in Ukraine is hastening a confrontational and fractured ending to the standoff, with the EU on Sunday threatening to freeze 7.5 billion euros which had been earmarked for Hungary, citing persisting corruption and fraud. 

It’s been no secret that Orban has been a thorn in the side of European efforts to punish and isolate Putin’s Russia. While Hungary has demanded exemptions from EU energy sanctions on Russia, and has meanwhile enjoyed cheap gasoline and other energy at a moment prices in the rest of Europe have gone steadily up over the course of the war – and into what’s sure to be a tough winter – the belief among leading EU states is that joint bloc anti-Russia actions have been largely blunted. The timing of the fresh EU threats is not going unnoticed.File image: Reuters

Bloomberg in a fresh report has put the dilemma as follows: “But while most member states have been engaged in a desperate scramble to secure alternative gas supplies ahead of the winter, Orban has deepened his country’s ties to the Kremlin, exploiting the exemptions he demanded from EU sanctions to secure increased imports of gas from Russia.”

Poland has remained a powerful impediment thus far to Brussels triggering any significant rule of law penalties, despite Warsaw remaining at the forefront of denunciations of Russia’s invasion.

“During years of frustration at the Hungarian government, Orban has been shielded from the EU’s main disciplinary machinery, known as the article 7 procedure, by the support of the nationalist government in Warsaw — because that mechanism too requires the endorsement of all the other members,” Bloomberg recounts. “The war in Ukraine has soured Orban’s relationship with the Polish government, which has been among the most ardent supporters of firm action against Putin, but for now the Poles are standing by Orban.”

Orban has cast efforts to “punish” his country in terms of a war on traditional values. For now, Poland seems to agree… the vast divergence in rhetoric on the Russia-Ukraine conflict notwithstanding. 

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Sunday, “Poland will strongly oppose any action of European institutions that intend to unduly deprive any member states of funds, in this case Hungary.”

Interestingly (given the timing of the EU’s threat to freeze funds), just days ago PM Orban reportedly told a closed-door meeting of officials from his ruling Fidesz party that he would fight efforts to extend EU sanctions on Russia:

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expects European Union leaders to start talks on extending sanctions on Russia in the autumn but Budapest would try to block the move, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported, citing unidentified sources.

Orban, a harsh critic of EU sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, made the remarks at a closed meeting to party members in the western village of Kotcse last week, RFE/RL said on its Hungarian website on Friday.

He also appeared to once again blame the West for the Ukraine conflict spiraling out of control, and continued his theme of anti-Russia sanctions ultimately blowing back on populations at home, or shooting the European economy in the foot.

Russian media too has been featuring recent quotes of Orban’s lambasting collective Western policy: “The Hungarian leader allegedly told his supporters that he believed Ukraine may end up losing between one third and one half of its territory due to the conflict with Russia, RFE/RL reported on Friday, citing participants of the meeting in the village of Kotcse.”

Budapest has meanwhile lashed out at the European Parliament’s (EP) recent move to approve a resolution stating that Hungary is no longer a “full democracy.” That nonbinding EP vote from last week cited Hungary’s failures to uphold “respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law, and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities” – as the text reads, in repetition of prior EP statements.

A Fidesz statement said in response“It is unforgivable that, while people are suffering from the severe economic effects of wartime inflation and misguided sanctions, the European Parliament is attacking Hungary again.”

END

HUNGARY

It starts: majority of Hungarian gas stations will run dry by next week

(zerohedge)

Majority Of Hungarian Gas Stations To Run Dry Next Week

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Hungarian gas and oil giant MOL will only be able to deliver a quarter of the needed fuel from 19 September, Hungarian media reported.

According to Daily News Hungary. Szeretlekmagyarorszag.hu acquired a letter in which MOL informed its partners that they could only deliver 25% of the contracted fuel amount. The cited reason for shortfall is “to maintain the predictability of fuel orders and the supply in Hungary, MOL explaned. The oil and gas giant’s announcement concerns gasoline and diesel deliveries, too.”

Similar to other European countries, the Hungarian government decided to maintain price caps on fuel and essential foodstuffs until the end of this year. Regarding the possible fuel shortage, Gergely Gulyás, the prime minister’s chief of staff, said on yesterday’s government info that “there might be problems at the petrol stations.” However, they trust in the sustainability of their decisions. Gulyás added that people could thank MOL that the government can maintain the fuel price cap scheme. As a result, gasoline and diesel prices will remain at HUF 480 per litre (EUR 1.19/l) in Hungary until 31 December. Of course, the trade off is that soon there will be no gasoline and diesel.

MOL announced today that their refinery in Százhalombatta is operating again at full capacity because it successfully finished the scheduled maintenance work. The second maintenance phase will begin on 9 October, they added. But that will be a smaller-scale project affecting only the diesel-producing facilities. After finishing the procedure, it might take some time to ramp up diesel production. However, according to the Hungarian press, “fortunately demand decreases in autumn and winter, mitigating fuel shortage.”

We doubt that this year demand will be falling any time soon. In fact, with shortages looming, prepare for just the opposite.

END

Hungary Can No Longer Be Considered A Full Democracy, Claim EU Lawmakers In Latest Attack On Orbán’s Conservative Government |

ZeroHedge

Robert Hryniak4:42 PM (3 minutes ago)
to

Over the last several days we read many stories of how Hungary is this or that and that funds will be withheld by the EU of many billions because Hungary is not a good obedient vassal to Brussel’s dictates. Well there is a little more to this rage in Brussels and elsewhere that is creating this noise. Hungary was well represented in Samarkand last week with officials speaking officially and unofficially with everyone about trade. And yes, that included Russia and China. This is what has the folks upset. One should remember that Orban did a deal for cheap natural gas until 2036. Do you perhaps think Hungary sees the writing on the wall for Europe and recognizes it’s future lies in Eurasia? It will not be surprising to see Hungary kicked out in months ahead to discipline them. The bigger question is will they care and who will follow as Europe destroys itself through this fall and winter. At any rate, people in Hungary will be toasty this winter compared to their neighbors. And they are quickly becoming a low cost center for conducting  business.

What is interesting to watch is how various countries are buying discounted Russian energy and using that to control spiraling inflation at the expense of nations obsessed with sanctions that only serve to destroy their own economies. I wonder if anyone thought through their actions. Just like the changing tune from NATO who suggests they are not at WAR with Russia they only supply weapons. We will over look the NATO troops dying wearing the Ukrainian chevron. One wonders if Zelensky is sober enough to smell the coffee and whether the likes of BlackRock realize neither will be desired soon? 



https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hungary-can-no-longer-be-considered-full-democracy-claim-eu-lawmakers-latest-attack-orbans

END

Another important read;  the sanctions against Russia have exposed acute problems for Europe. Many businesses are on the verge of bankruptcy.

On top of this, the huge influx of migrants is causing budgetary problems for European nations.  Living standards are plummeting

(Oriental Review)

Europe’s Economy And Living Standards Are Plummeting

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Via Oriental Review,

The ill-considered sanctions against Russia have exposed the most acute problems of Europe which is rapidly losing its economic power. A tremendous amount of businesses are on the verge of bankruptcy. A flood of migrants from Africa, the Middle East and Ukraine requires more and more budget spending. Funds are also being used to support the Kiev regime. As a result, Europe’s economies are deteriorating and living standards are plummeting.

Enterprises are on the verge of closing

In Britain 60% of enterprises are on the verge of closing due to higher electricity prices. This is reported by the analytical group Make UK, representing the interests of British industry. 13% of British factories have reduced working hours and 7% are temporarily closing down. Electricity bills have risen by more than 100% compared to last year.

In Germany, according to the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, the number of firms and individuals went bankrupt in August alone rose 26% compared to the same period last year. The figure was significantly higher than German analysts had forecast. According to experts, during the autumn the number of bankruptcies will only increase. This is connected with the increase of the cost of production processes, in particular with the rise in prices for energy.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledged that many Germans have faced with rising prices for fuel and food. Most countries in Europe were in a similar situation. But the authorities are sacrificing the quality of people’s lives in order to continue to exert pressure on Russia.

The crisis is just ahead

At the same time, many experts believe the stopping of Nord Stream will cause Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades.

Manuela Schwesig, state premier of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Markus Söder, state premier of Bavaria, visit a site that will feed an existing pipeline network with liquefied natural gas in Lubmin, Germany, on August 30, 2022

This circumstance has already caused a sharp rise of prices of energy resources on the European market. As a result, energy bills of European households have increased. According to Goldman Sachs’ analysts, its cumulative cost will peak in early 2023, increasing by 2 trillion euros. It has also led to a record depreciation of the European currency over the past 20 years.

The increased cost of gas, heat and electricity has an adverse effect on the living standard of the people. But an even more dangerous problem is the falling liquidity of European products produced at the new cost of energy. European products are becoming uncompetitive on the world market: their price is much higher because of the cost of electricity and gas.

Attempts by EU leaders to introduce a price cap on energy from Russia have completely failed.

“Europe reaps what it sows”

European countries are themselves to blame for the problems they face this coming winter because of reduced gas supplies from Russia, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said. According to him, “Europe reaps what it sows”, while Turkey “has no problems with gas supplies”.

The crisis in Europe is a result of a political mistake. On one hand, sanctions against Russia, are favorable only to the U.S. And on the other, the imposition of the post-hydrocarbon economy on Europeans has shown its insolvency.

As a result, energy prices in Asia and Latin America today are much lower. And so are the wages of production workers. In other words, European products are totally uncompetitive. And we see a decrease in the liquidity of those products on the market. As a consequence, the European economy begins to plunge into recession. In particular, Christian Sewing, Director General of Deutsche Bank, said on September 7 that Germany is no longer able to avoid recession. Already at the moment it is buying significantly less raw materials from major suppliers such as Brazil, Argentina and the U.S.

The Economist Intelligence Unit, a British think tank, predicts that GDP growth in 2023 will be: 5.3% in China, 5.1% in India, 1.2% in the United States, 0.3% in France, 0.3% in Brazil. And it will be negative in a number of countries: minus 0.6% in the UK, minus 1% in Germany, and minus 1.3% in Italy.

Poverty is coming

The next logical consequence will be mass production closures and rising unemployment. European technology companies are already reducing the number of high-paying engineering positions. In September, German wind turbine manufacturer Siemens Gamesa announced its intention to reduce the number of employees to 1,500 people.

In turn, rising unemployment will cause a drop in living standards and an additional burden on government budgets, as the fight against poverty requires additional social spending.

European economies survive through stimulus. But this exacerbates inflation. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said, “You can’t help everyone, so we in the West will be a bit poorer because of the high inflation, the high energy costs”.

Migrants are ruinous to the budget

Meanwhile, the energy crisis and production problems have been exacerbated by migration policies that require additional budgetary injections into the social sphere.

Migrant influx into European countries over the past two decades has been less than 1 million people a year. But already last year, 1.3 million people entered the countries, and this year, there were already 1.8 million people. We must take into account the fact that some immigrants enter Europe illegally and are not registered. They are primarily residents of Somalia, Nigeria, Gambia, Iran, Pakistan, Mali, Afghanistan, Eritrea and Syria.

Moreover, more than 10 million people left Ukraine since the end of February. Of these, at least 6 million people remain in European countries, while 3.7 million have already received refugee status. The average cost per such migrant is 7,000 euros per year. Even without Ukrainians, Germany alone spends 25 to 55 billion euros annually on refugee aid.

The European economy could afford these enormous expenditures before the energy crisis. But now the situation is such that expenditures are only increasing while revenues are falling.

Following the catastrophic electricity and heating bills, Europe’s population is facing mass unemployment, followed by a decline in social support from the state. These processes inevitably lead to an overall decline in living standards.

EU/ENERGY CRISIS

Still months away from passing but the EU are seeking sweeping new crisis powers to secure its supply chains

(Tom Ozimek/EpochTimes)

EU Seeks Sweeping New Crisis Powers To Secure Critical Supply Chains

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

The executive body of the European Union (EU) laid out a new emergency tool to secure supply chains in times of crisis that would give it sweeping new powers to block member countries from adopting restrictions to the free movement of crisis-relevant goods or force businesses to break contracts and stockpile key products.

Details of the plan—called the Single Market Emergency Instrument (SMEI)—were unveiled on Sept. 19 by the European Commission (EC), which would be granted the power to declare an emergency and trigger a range of market interventions.

The draft measure comes in response to what the EC said were “structural shortcomings” in the way the EU single market operates that were exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic and that hampered the EU’s ability to respond effectively to crises.

“We need new tools that allow us to react fast and collectively,” said Margrethe Vestager, the EC’s executive vice president , in a statement.

”The COVID-19 crisis made it clear: we must make our Single Market operational at all times, including in times of crisis. We must make it stronger,” she said.

While responding to questions as to whether the new measures represent a “planned economy,” Vestager insisted it’s “exactly the opposite, because they ensure a functioning market.”

‘We Must Be Better Prepared’

The new crisis management tool establishes a new mechanism to monitor the EU single market, identify different risk levels, and coordinate a response in three modes: contingency, vigilance, and emergency.

In contingency mode, the EC and EU member states establish a communication and coordination framework to boost preparedness.

When a threat has been identified, the EC can trigger vigilance mode, which would focus on monitoring supply chains of critical goods and focus on building up strategic reserves of such products.

In case of a full-blown crisis, the EC would initiate emergency mode, which would see such measures as a blacklist of prohibited restrictions to ensure free movement of critical supplies within the EU single market.

In the emergency stage, EC could also recommend that member countries distribute the strategic reserves in a targeted manner and demand that businesses accept priority rated orders for key supplies. Businesses would be forced to comply with such demands or explain “the grave reasons justifying refusal,” the EC said.

There’s also an avenue for accelerated placing of critical goods on the EU single market by means of a streamlined process of testing and accreditation.

“We must be better prepared to anticipate and respond to the next crisis,” Thierry Breton, EU commissioner for the internal market, said in a statement.

“Rather than relying on ad-hoc improvised actions, the Single Market Emergency Instrument will provide a structural answer to preserve the free movement of goods, people, and services in adverse times,” he added.

The proposed new instrument still needs to be debated by EU member states and put to the European Parliament for a vote, so several months are likely to pass before it becomes law.

END

SWEDEN

Sweden shocks markets with a record 100 basis point rate hike.

(zerohedge)

Sweden Shocks Markets With A Record 100bps Rate Hike, As It Rushes To Hit Its Terminal Rate

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 06:23 AM

Another day, another shock from a raging hawk of a central bank which until just a year ago was one of the world’s biggest doves.

Not that long after the Swedish central bank appeared lock into NIRP for ever, this morning the Swedish central bank surprised markets with a full percentage-point hike (consensus looked for “only” 75bps), the biggest ever under the current monetary-policy regime.

Only two of 19 forecasters polled by Bloomberg expected such a large move with most economists penciling in a 75 basis-point hike while warning that a bigger move was possible.

However, while today’s hike was a record and certainly bigger than expected, the central bank hinted that it is merely rushing to get to the terminal target quicker: the Riksbank raised its policy rate path, with the rate now seen peaking at about 2.53% in 2023 Q3. The Executive Board continues to be concerned over a price-wage spiral and inflation expectations becoming entrenched, with the MPR noting again that the Riksbank needs to make “it clear to price- and wage-setters that the inflation target can continue to be used as a benchmark.

As Viraj Patel notes, the hawkish hike was a bit of a headfake because the central bank has maybe “one more big hike left & then DONE according to their forward rate path. Don’t think there’s much cross-read for other central banks (like Fed)… European central banks were/are playing catch-up”

While the Swedish krona spiked higher in kneejerk reaction to the jumbo rate hike, it quickly erased gains as the market had priced in a more aggressive profile for the rate path, with a peak at around 3.5%.

The Monetary Policy Report showed another sharp upward revision to the inflation forecast (+0.9pp to 5.1% in 2023) and a sharp downward revision to the growth forecast (-1.4pp to -0.7% in 2023). The Executive Board also signaled continued concern about the triggering of a wage-price spiral, and high inflation becoming entrenched in expectations, though the overall message was more dovish with the policy rate forecast only showing moderate further tightening until the end of the year. But given today’s hawkish surprise and the Riksbank’s revealed preference for frontloading hikes, Goldman now expects a further 75bp hike at the November meeting (revised up from 50bp previously), followed by a 50bp and a 25bp hike in 2023. This raises our terminal rate estimate to 3.25% (from 2.50% previously), above Goldman’ estimate of the neutral rate in Sweden of 2%.

And while the Riksbank’s near-term policy rate forecast is somewhat dovish, given the Executive Board’s revealed preference for frontloading hikes and their expectation of a 2.50% terminal rate, Goldman thinks it is more likely than not that the Riksbank will continue to hike aggressively in the near term, albeit at a slightly slower pace. Here is Goldman’ Christian Schnittker:

We see two-sided risks to this call: faster wage growth or a continued rise in inflation expectations could push the Riksbank to hike more aggressively, possibly another 100bp or more 75bp hikes, given the Executive Board’s concern about a wage-price spiral. But a material slowdown in European activity, caused by unfavourable winter weather or new gas supply issues, could lead to a slower hiking pace, as the Riksbank seeks to balance supporting economic activity with countering inflation pressures.

Policy makers acknowledged that the more-aggressive stance will hurt households, but said even more pain would be in store if inflation were to remain at current levels. The central bank now expects an ongoing housing slump to be deeper, with prices falling 18% from a peak earlier this year.

Additionally, the Riksbank said that it will continue to buy bonds until the end of this year, at the pace it outlined in June, in other words, QE continues. However, the bank’s balance sheet will still shrink as bonds mature, and asset purchases come to an end this year.

END

GERMANY/QATAR

Big energy deal to be announced on massive LNG.  However it will not help them in the short term as the project is not slated to begin until 2026

(zerohedge0

German Utility Giants Close To Massive LNG Deal With Qatar, But There Is A Catch

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 09:10 AM

About a decade ago, Europe had a good idea: pass a pipeline from natgas producing giant Qatar through Syria, Turkey and into Europe, reducing or completely eliminating Europe’s reliance on Russian gas. We then get the entire staged ISIS interlude which captivated the world’s attention for several years, and which gradually faded away after Putin and Assad proved too powerful to be removed by western “liberators.” And just as the deep state-funded ISIS disappeared as quickly as it had appeared, so did Europe’s ambitions of a natgas pipeline from Qatar.

But while Qatar may not send gas by land, nothing prevents it from doing so by sea, and with Europe facing a historic energy crisis and desperate to try literally anything, overnight Reuters reported that German utility giants RWE and Uniper are close to striking long-term deals to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) – the kind that doesn’t need a pipeline but needs a rather expensive ship to transport it from expensive LNG terminal A to expensive LNG terminal B, or in this case from Qatar’s North Field Expansion project. Why? Simple: to help replace Russian gas, three Reuters sources said.

While talks between Germany and Qatar have been riddled with differences over key conditions such as the length of contracts and pricing – Reuters reported in May that the talks had run into difficulties because Germany was reluctant to commit to deals for at least 20 years and also wanted prices linked to Dutch benchmark gas prices, rather than oil – the industry told Reuters the parties were expected to reach a compromise soon; one of the sources said the talks were now more constructive than a few months ago. Another source said the utilities were likely to agree 15-year deals, while a third source said a deal could be reached within weeks.

When asked for comment, Uniper told Reuters on Monday that it remained in talks with Qatar but had not reached a deal. “Uniper is currently working hard to diversify its sources of gas supply. Qatar also plays an important role in this,” it said. RWE was similarly evasive and told Reuters it was in “good and constructive” talks with Qatar, without being more specific.

At the moment, the two utilities buy LNG from Qatar on the spot market. RWE signed a deal with Qatar in 2016 for up to 1.1 million tonnes of LNG a year, but that expires next year.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will travel to Saudi Arabia on Saturday for a two-day visit to the Gulf region that will also take him to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Scholz is expected to sign LNG contracts during his visit to the UAE, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said.

Europe’s biggest economy has stated its ambitious goal of replacing all Russian energy imports by as soon as mid-2024, a Herculean effort for a country that mainly relies on natural gas to power its industry. 

And while we applaud Germany finally realizing it has been held hostage by Russian energy all along – as Donald Trump warned it back in 2018 to sarcastic smile by Germans such as  Heiko Maas, there is a big catch to the proposed push to replace dependency on Russia with dependency on Qatar: simply said, while supply deals with Qatar would be positive for Germany, they would not offer an imminent solution to Berlin’s energy crisis – or even a near-term solution – as the vast North Field Expansion project is not expected to come online before 2026.

The North Field Expansion project includes six LNG trains that will ramp up Qatar’s liquefaction capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to 126 mtpa by 2027. Qatar has partnered with international companies in the first and largest phase of the nearly $30 billion expansion that will reinforce its position as the world’s top LNG exporter.

Of course, there is another catch: as the recent unexplained accident at the Freeport LNG plant over the summer vividly demonstrated, LNG transit is extremely vulnerable to “weakest link” choke points: were the Russian leader so inclined, he could easily precipitate a handful of explosions at key facilities in the process crippling Qatar LNG exports for months if not years, while sending Europe back into the dark ages… again.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Russia is transferring old World War ii defense missiles to the Ukrainian front

(zerohedge)

Russia Transfers Old St. Petersburg Defense Missiles To Ukraine Front: Report

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 06:00 PM

Finland’s Yle broadcaster said in a lengthy investigative report issued Sunday that Russia’s military has taken the unprecedented step of moving old anti-aircraft missile systems to its captured regions of Ukraine amid an ongoing shortage of advanced weapons. 

Finnish military expert Marko Eklund was cited in the report as saying at least four anti-aircraft missile installations which surround St. Petersburg had been “emptied of equipment” as of August and early September.S-300 file image: EPA/EFE

The Yle report relies heavily on satellite imagery analysis which purports to show the transfers away from the Petersburg bases. 

The Finnish expert explained “It is most likely that the equipment that has been removed is primarily from the old S-300 system.” Eklund further said that St. Petersburg air defense capabilities are still in tact given that all or most of the equipment moved included older, or less advanced technology:

There has also been a significant transfer of equipment from a base southeast of St Petersburg—about 10 firing platforms as well as other vehicles.

According to Eklund, in this case, new missile equipment may also have been removed, as the Russian armed forces said, that this regiment was using the newer S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, introduced about 15 years ago.

This comes amid an avalanche of speculation in Western sources over the past months saying that after over a half-year of war in Ukraine, Russian defense ministry supplies – especially missiles – have been severely depleted. 

Yle report: “The area of this 500th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment battery appears to be completely abandoned. Source: Google Earth Aug. 2021 and Planet Labs 2 Sept. 2022.” Before…

After…

Last month, Ukrainian intelligence claimed that Russia had no more than 45% of its missiles left, but this is unverified and interestingly Kiev gave the same estimate as early as May.

There has also been much speculation that US and EU-led sanctions have had a great impact on disallowing Moscow from obtaining parts and necessary equipment needed to keep missile production on course.Via Yle

In the new Finnish report, Eklund warned that older systems being sent to the front lines in Ukraine doesn’t bode well for civilians. “These old missiles are used for ground targets in such a way that the greatest damage seems to be done to civilians,” he said.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Russia is set to hold referendums in the Donbas regions

(zerohedge)

Series Of Occupied Ukraine Regions Set Referendums As ‘National Mobilization’ Being Pushed Through Russia’s Duma

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 08:23 AM

Multiple pro-Moscow officials in Ukraine on Tuesday announced their intent to stage referendums on joining Russia, including the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin, as well as the Russia-installed official over the southern Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo. “I think that people have long been waiting for a referendum here and it will probably be a political move that will help ensure the safety of civilians,” Pushillin said Tuesday.

The neighboring Luhansk People’s Republic, where fierce battles took place ahead of and into the summer wherein Russia definitively gobbled up most territory, has also adopted a law on holding a vote, now announced for September 23-27.

Bloomberg in reporting the announcement suggests that Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the east may have actually hastened Moscow’s timeline on annexation: 

The Kremlin is moving hastily to stage sham votes on annexing the regions of Ukraine its forces still control, after Kyiv’s military drove Russian troops from large areas of territory taken in their seven-month-old invasion. The so-called Luhansk People’s Republic may hold its vote as soon as this weekend, Interfax quoted a senior legislator as saying Tuesday. 

Kherson region’s Vladimir Saldo too said that “the leadership of the Kherson region administration decided to prepare and hold a referendum” after what he described as a public appeal, saying in a video message:

“We have set a course for reunification, a return to Russia. And we will not turn away from it.”

As for the two self-proclaimed republics in the Donbas, this has long been seen as perhaps inevitable since the war began, but even partially Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia region has seen pro-Russian officials already talking about a referendum, based on the “We are together with Russia” movement.

Kremlin officials have long been on record as saying Ukrainian regions which hold a referendum vote in the affirmative will be recognized and granted admission to the Russian Federation. At the same time Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed his forces will not stop fighting until every inch of Ukraine territory is liberated, including even the Crimea – under Russian control since 2014. The hardening of resolve on both sides have made negotiations essentially impossible at this point.

Referendums in occupied territory will further ensure the warring sides deem direct talks as not a real option. Bloomberg notes further of how the referendums are likely to change the battlefield dynamic:

By making the occupied zones formally part of Russia under the country’s laws, the votes may also allow the Kremlin to deploy conscript troops there, in addition to the current force of contract soldiers and military contractors.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, said that the referendums will result in greater protection of residents from Ukrainian attacks. “Encroachment onto the territory of Russia is a crime which allows you to use all self-defense forces,” he said on Telegram.

So far in the Donbas – in the DPR and LPR regions – the main fighting forces have been the pro-Russian separatist militias. Making these Russian territory opens the door for ‘legal’ (in Moscow’s eyes) entry of regular conscripts and even permanent military bases.

Meanwhile, amid reported devastating losses and a general pullback from positions near Kharkiv, Russia is believed to be on the brink of major escalation…

Throughout this month there have been persisting rumors that Putin could be ready to formally declare a state of war against Ukraine. State media sources are on Tuesday reporting that Russian parliament appears to be taking legal steps to pave the way for national mobilization of forces:

The State Duma immediately in the second and third readings unanimously approved the amendments, including the introduction of the concepts of “mobilization” and “wartime” into the Criminal Code, as well as establishing responsibility for looting and voluntary surrender.

Given the series of occupied Ukraine regions now declaring intent to hold referendums, coming just as news of these key changes being pushed through the State Duma emerge on Tuesday, it does seem Russia is about to quickly “answer” the ongoing Ukraine counteroffensive in a dramatic way. 

Margarita Simonyan, the Editor-in-chief of state-funded RT news, made the following ominous prediction: “By what is happening and still about to happen, this week marks either the eve of our imminent victory, or the eve of nuclear war. I can’t see anything third.”

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL//CANADA

this is interesting!!

Study Prepared for the Liberal Party of Canada Finds Covid-19 Vaccines Not 100% Effective; 6 Times More Vaccinated People are in ICU and 5 Times More are Hospitalized

Inbox

Robert Hryniak6:44 PM (4 hours ago)
to

Some how i doubt anyone wants more of this. 



Study Prepared for the Liberal Party of Canada Finds Covid-19 Vaccines Not 100% Effective; 6 Times More Vaccinated People are in ICU and 5 Times More are Hospitalized

The Liberals led by tyrant Justin Trudeau knew that they were completely wrong in their decision-making and action regarding the Covid-19 vaccine.

A recent report prepared for the Liberal Party of Canada in June confirmed that “vaccines do not reduce hospitalizations and deaths among people under the age of 60.”

Independent researchers of the highest caliber evaluated government data from Ontario. The experts conclude that the Covid-19 vaccines are not 100% effective in preventing infection and hospitalization even with booster shots. They are opposed to the continuation of mass vaccination campaigns, mandates, passport requirements, and travel restrictions for people of all ages.

Do the COVID-19 vaccines prevent infection and hospitalization?

TRENDING: Clown Show: Biden’s Car Gets Stuck in London Traffic on Way to King’s Banquet – Brits Laugh (VIDEO)

  • Full vaccination does not prevent infection and hospitalization. Even full vaccination with a booster does not prevent infection or hospitalization.

What are the trends in vaccinated and unvaccinated cases in the hospitals?

  • In-mid April 2021, when less than 3% of Canadians were fully vaccinated, most of the cases in hospital were unvaccinated. In mid-January 2022, when 77% of Canadians were fully vaccinated, there were more vaccinated cases in hospital than unvaccinated cases.

Are there more vaccinated or unvaccinated cases in the ICU and hospitals at present (June 3, 2022)?

  • There are 6 times more cases that are vaccinated versus unvaccinated currently in ICU and 5 times more vaccinated cases that are in the hospital compared to unvaccinated cases. 

The report concluded:

Given the statistical evidence provided in this report, the public health policy tools such as, mass vaccination campaigns, mandates, passports and travel restrictions need to be re-evaluated for relevance in this phase of SARS-CoV-2. The abundance of evidence documented by Public Health Ontario (PHO), Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) and top-tier scientific journals demonstrates that the vaccines do not prevent infection or hospitalization.

The Ontario data show that vaccination currently makes little difference in terms of hospitalization and death rates for those below age 60. Additionally, since there are known risks of adverse events and unknown longterm effects, these must be considered in developing vaccine policies.

The empirical evidence investigated in this report from PHO and PHAC does not support continuing mass vaccination programs, mandates, passports and travel bans for all age groups. Rather, it may be prudent to utilize a more targeted and cost-effective approach focused on vaccinating the high-risk group, while factoring in an individual’s potential risk of vaccine-related adverse events.

Below is the full report obtained by Steve Kirsch:

Study Prepared for the Liberal Party of Canada Finds Covid-19 Vaccines Don’t Reduce Hospitalization and Dea… by Jim Hoft on Scribd

GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY

end

.

PAUL ALEXANDER…

Open in browserDiabolical with this COVID GENE injection is what they did; it took us 3 to 4 years to see the impact of thalidomide on pregnant women, on the fetus with phocomelia limb malformations, remember that!
Pregnant women took thalidomide for 3 to 4 years before the effects on the developing child was seen, I am warning you, very serious effects of the injection are coming! STOP! NOT in children!

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 19 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 Pfizer and Moderna are criminal organizations, the FDA is criminal what they approved, these companies never ever tested these injections for safety. DO NOT give your child. The mRNA platform is dangerous, the lipid nano particle platform is dangerous, it is to the pregnant woman, her fertility, her health, to men, to their fertility, to the unborn developing child. Stop, use your common sense!Make them prove safety…they cannot. So do not just do this to your child. I am no anti-vaxxer, these injections are dangerous. Stop! No boosters. Stop!

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Open in browserSHARYL ATTKISSON reminded us now that HHS (Health & Human Services) will renew the ‘Covid-19 pubic health emergency for 11th time’; how? why a renewal if Biden says pandemic is over?
I ask you to comment, could this really be, is this really all about politics, elections, as under Trump, now under Biden, that there was NEVER ever an emergency, & this is about POWER, ‘keeping it’?
Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 19
▷  LISTENSAVE 

Title: If POTUS Biden said the pandemic is over, then why would HHS move to renew the public health emergency declarations an 11th time? Is it not time to remove the emergency declarations?

An 11th renewal is ludicrous and nonsensical, absurd and has no basis. Is this about mid-term elections? Is this about Presidential elections in 2024? Is this purely politics now and the drive to hold onto accrued power amassed with the lockdown lunacy?
Omicron as the current dominant variant and it’s sub-variants (clades) is very mild such that for most people, even many high-risk people, they can adequately handle the infection and cope with it. The reality is that while omicron can still present a challenge (as does seasonal influenza and common cold and a range of respiratory illnesses) to elderly persons and especially those with co-morbidities (as well as obese persons, immune-compromised persons), it is revealing itself to be no more severe than seasonal flu, and generally less so.Moreover, we have used repurposed therapeutics (as prophylactics and treatment) effectively and we have availability. We also know who is the at-risk group and how to effectively manage and hospitals were given hundreds of billions of dollars $ in PPE, PPP, and COVID relief money to prepare. They are prepared. They, hospitals, are limited in terms of laying off many nurses who chose to not be COVID vaccinated and they must apologize given the clear evidence that the mandate policy had no scientific basis. The data clearly showed very early on after COVID vaccine rollout that there was no difference in terms of viral load between a vaccinated and an unvaccinated person. Thus the policy was punitive and nonsensical, and not just for nurses, but for all employees subjected to it without any scientific basis. Hospitals and workplaces should take these employees back and pay them all lost wages. Do all they could to make them ‘whole’.Moreover, a large portion of the vulnerable population in the developed world is already vaccinated and protected against severe disease. Importantly, we have learned much about the utility of inexpensive supplements like Vitamin D to reduce disease risk, and as mentioned, there is a host of good therapeutics available to prevent hospitalization and death should a vulnerable patient e.g. elderly in a nursing home or similar congregated setting or private residence, become infected. And for younger people, the risk of severe disease – already low before omicron – is minuscule. This is the data. This is the evidence across global nations.Even in places with strict lockdown measures, there are hundreds of thousands of newly registered omicron cases daily and countless unregistered positives from home testing. Measures like mandatory masking and distancing have had negligible or at most small effects on transmission. Large-scale population quarantines only delay the inevitable.  Vaccination and boosters have not halted omicron disease spread; heavily vaccinated nations like Israel and Australia have more daily cases per capita than any place on earth at the moment. This wave will run its course despite all of the emergency measures.This given that omicron, with its mild infection, is running its course to the end, there is simply no justification for maintaining emergency status. So why would HHS move to renew it an 11th time? The lockdowns, the school closures, the shielding-in-place, the business closures, the personnel firings and shortages and school university disruptions have done at least as much damage (and certainly more) to the population’s health and welfare as the virus. The American population and most global nations that engaged in lockdown lunacy etc. have been crushed, devastated, economies and their peoples. We harmed and caused deaths of our populations by the lockdown lunatic policies and especially our poorer minority populations and women, who could not afford to shield. We catastrophically shifted the burden of infection and illness from the café latte, laptop, ‘zoom class’ to the poorer in society who could not shield as had to maintain front-facing employment to survive. They could not ‘remote work’. Many business owners, laid off employees, and children in America committed suicide due to the lockdown restrictive lunacy.The state of emergency is clearly not justified now, and it cannot be justified by fears of a hypothetical recurrence of some more severe infection at some unknown hypothetical point in the future. We just cannot operate public health policy this way. If a novel severe strain or variant were to occur and it seems unlikely from omicron (though we are placing the spike antigen under relentless selection pressure with sub-optimal vaccinal antibodies, mounting sub-optimal immune pressure, and in the midst of massive infectious pressure) then that would be the time we discuss a declaration of emergency. Not now. It is done, it is over and it is time we let Americans go back to normal life. All restrictions, all mandates, vaccine and otherwise, must be ended now!Americans have sacrificed enough of their human rights, dignity, liberties, and of their livelihoods for over two years in the service of protecting the general public health. Americans lost people to the virus, vulnerable people and no one can deny that. But America lost most due to the lockdown lunacy and we lost above all, our freedoms. It is time to allow America to be unshackled from these COVID lockdown lunatic policies. Completely. Living life freely once again, taking reasonable precautions, unfettered by government’s failed COVID lockdown polices whereby not one worked!Omicron is circulating but it is not an emergency. The emergency is over. It is done! The current emergency declaration must be canceled. It is time. It is time to bring this COVID pandemic to a full closure and to move on to proper public legal inquiries as to the decision-making that went into the COVID response, particularly the roll-out of the ineffective and safety untested COVID gene injections.
https://sharylattkisson.com/2022/09/hhs-expected-to-renew-covid-19-pubic-health-emergency-for-11th-time/
END

“Don’t Touch Foreigners” – Chinese Officials Warn Public After First Monkeypox CaseBY TYLER DURDENMONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 11:20 PMChina has just confirmed its first case on monkeypox, and has an ‘unusual’ public health warning for its citizens (who remain in and out of ZeroCOVID lockdowns anyway): Don’t touch foreigners!“To prevent possible monkeypox infection and as part of our healthy lifestyle, it is recommended that 1) you do not have direct skin-to-skin contact with foreigners,” Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention posted on his official Weibo page on Saturday.Wu proudly proclaimed that the country’s COVID restrictions and tight border controls had thus far prevented the spread of monkeypox, until a case “slipped through the net.”That case was detected in the southwest municipality of Chongqing. CNN reports that an “international arrival” was under mandatory Covid-19 quarantine when the infection was discovered, according to local authorities.Reuters reports that the infected person was a 29-year-old Chinese national who flew to Chongqing on Sept. 14 from Spain, the Center for Disease Control said later.While some were open to Wu’s advice, others found it inflammatory and discriminative.“It’s good to open the country’s door, but we can’t just let everything in,” one Weibo user wrote.Several drew parallels to the wave of xenophobia and violence Asians overseas faced at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic... and don’t call it “Wuhan Flu”!“This is a bit like when the pandemic began when some people overseas avoided any Chinese people they saw out of fear,” a Weibo user wrote.“I don’t believe these two things have any scientific basis, they are too broad and will exacerbate public panic.”Where is the uproar from global progressives proclaiming this warning as disgustingly bigoted, xenophobic, racist, and homophobic?Remember, it’s not racist when ‘they’ do it… and never, ever, criticize China!Chinese experts say it’s unlikely monkeypox will wreak such chaos, with state media Global Times reporting on Friday the disease “poses little threat,” citing a hospital director.However, they have also urged continued vigilance, with some experts highlighting the need for “strict surveillance” and countermeasures, according to Global Times.

VACCINE IMPACT/

VACCINE INJURY/

URGENT: “Pilot of Boeing flight from Novokuznetsk to St. Petersburg dies suddenly on board plane”; substack subscriber JJ shared so I decided to put it out; EuroWeekly News

The Boeing pilot died suddenly on board the plane before being able to receive medical attention after the co-pilot was forced to make an emergency landing

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 20
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

SOURCE:

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Treven Ball, do not forget this 10 year old: “10-Year-Old Dies Unexpectedly Days After Fulfilling Dream of Playing Football Under Lights”; we await more details but there are whispers of the ‘V’ word

He is 10 and just suddenly dies, he was athletic, and had no medical conditions…what we have done to children is criminal and Fauci and Bourla and Bancel and CDC must one day sit in a DOCKET

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 20
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 
10-Year-Old Dies Unexpectedly Days After Fulfilling Dream of Playing Football Under the Lights

SOURCE:

https://resistthemainstream.org/10-year-old-dies-unexpectedly-days-after-fulfilling-dream-of-playing-football-under-the-lights/?utm_source=gab

A 10-year-old Indiana boy died Tuesday in his mother’s arms while being transported by ambulance to Memorial Hospital in Jasper.

Treven Ball, of French Lick, Indiana, loved football and played on the Springs Valley Schools youth team in his hometown. The 10-year-old reportedly wanted to practice more to become the best player he could. He recorded a memorable moment the week before he died when his team played a game under the lights for the first time. His first game was, unfortunately, also his last.

end

Open in browserDid hospitals & their CEOs, their doctors, did they kill our parents, grandparents, our people, across America, with midazolam, morphine, remdesivir, ventilators, INCENTIVIZED? Did they murder people?
Were hospitals and doctors and CEOs paid extra to COVIDize our peoples? Did they kill our people knowingly? We must investigate if this was about MONEY as much as it was about POWER! We need JAIL!
Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 20
▷  LISTENSAVE END

(courtesy Slay)

6 Times More Canadians in ICU after Covid Shots, Government Study Shows
A recent study prepared for Canada’s ruling Liberal Party shows that six times more vaccinated Canadians have ended up in an intensive care unit (ICU) for COVID-19 compared to those who haven’t received the shots.
READ MORE
end 

/VACCINE IMPACT

Funeral Embalmer: 85% of Dead Bodies Now Have Strange Blood Clots Since COVID Vaccine Roll-outs

September 19, 2022 12:42 pm

Some of the strongest evidence that the COVID-19 vaccines have caused crippling injuries and huge numbers of deaths in the vaccinated population have come from funeral home directors who have reported huge spikes in deaths in their business that correlate with the roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines and mandates. There is strong social and financial pressure against these professionals to go public, but a few have stood firm against this pressure, knowing that these truths must be brought to the attention of the public in an effort to save lives, no matter what the personal cost may be to themselves or their careers. Two of these funeral directors have been featured in the Alternative Media this year, and they are John O’Looney from the UK, and Richard Hirschman from Alabama in the U.S. Both men have confirmed that other funeral directors in their profession are seeing the same things they are seeing, but are too afraid to go public. Besides reporting on the huge increase in deaths they have been seeing since the roll out of the COVID vaccines, the embalmers have been reporting what they are finding inside the veins and arteries of these dead bodies: huge “blood clots” that do not resemble traditional blood clots at all, but are long fibrous entities that can completely block a vein or artery. Richard Hirschman, who has been a licensed embalmer for over 21 years and has embalmed thousands of bodies, said in a recent interview with the RAIR Foundation that while he was accustomed to seeing blood clots in 5 to 10% of the bodies he embalmed, that now he is seeing almost 85% of the bodies he is embalming have blood clots, which started after the roll out of the COVID vaccines, and that these “blood clots” are nothing like he has ever seen before.

Read More…


1323 Athlete Cardiac Arrests, Serious Issues, 900 Dead, After COVID Injection

September 19, 2022 1:07 pm

It is definitely not normal for so many mainly young athletes to suffer from cardiac arrests or to die while playing their sport, but this year it is happening. Many of these heart issues and deaths come shortly after they got a COVID vaccine. While it is possible this can happen to people who did not get a COVID vaccine, the sheer numbers clearly point to the only obvious cause. It wasn’t intentional, but at one point there were ominous numbers in the headline. 2 to the 10th power and 666 dead athletes. The so-called health professionals running the COVID vaccine programs around the world keep repeating that “the COVID vaccine is a normal vaccine and it is safe and effective.” In response to their pronouncement, here is a non-exhaustive and continuously growing list of mainly young athletes who had major medical issues in 2021/2022 after receiving one or more COVID vaccines. Initially, many of these were not reported. We know that many people were told not to tell anyone about their adverse reactions and the media was not reporting them. They started happening and ramping up after the first COVID vaccinations. The mainstream media still are not reporting most, but sports news cannot ignore the fact that soccer players and other stars collapse in the middle of a game due to a sudden cardiac arrest. Many of those die – more than 50%.

Read More…

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

VENEZUELA

Not good:  Venezuela emptying prisons and sending violent criminals to USA borders.  Let the uSA handle the costs of these immigrants.

(zerohedge)

DHS Intel Report Indicates Venezuela Emptying Prisons, Sending Violent Criminals To US Border

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 08:40 PM

Since President Biden assumed office nearly two years ago, his ‘open border’ policies have allowed 4.9 million illegal aliens, or about the entire population of Ireland, to cross into the US. 

America is facing a historic crisis at its southern border. White House officials could care less and have welcomed illegals (though not welcomed in white liberal elite towns, such as Martha’s Vineyard). 

US Border Czar, Vice President Kamala Harris, has yet to visit the border while Democrats downplay the invasion of illegals. 

The endless flow of illegal aliens has concerned the Department of Homeland Security detailed in an intelligence report received by the Border Patrol (obtained by Breitbart), which specifies the Venezuelan government, under the leadership of Nicolas Maduro, is releasing violent criminals from jail and embedding them within migrant caravans headed to the US-Mexico border. 

Here’s more from Breitbart’s story, citing the intelligence report:

The intelligence report warns agents the freed prisoners have been seen within migrant caravans traveling from Tapachula, Mexico toward the U.S.-Mexico border as recently as July. The source, not authorized to speak to the media, told Breitbart Texas the move is reminiscent of a similar action taken by Cuban dictator Fidel Castro during the Mariel boat lift in the 1980s.

The report does not state whether the released prison inmates were traveling as a cohesive group but does state it was commonly shared knowledge among migrants traveling to the United States within a caravan in July that many of the Venezuelan migrants in the group were convicts and included hardened criminals.

The report does not specify that the release of the convicts — understanding they would head to the United States — could be a purposeful geopolitical move specifically intended to impact US national security. Another information gap cited in the report acknowledges the unknown role the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (SEBIN), Venezuela’s equivalent to the CIA, may have played in the deliberate releases.

The source says the task of identifying Venezuelans who have criminal records in their home country is nearly impossible. Of the thousands of Venezuelan migrants surrendering along the U.S.-Mexico border daily, most, according to the source, are being released into the United States. Without effective diplomatic relations with Venezuela, the source says access to criminal databases in that country simply does not exist.

The source says it is unknown how many have already been released into the interior of the United States to pursue asylum.

Most of these migrants come from Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Venezuela, but growing numbers now come from all over the world. Many of these illegals cross the border with little skills and almost no personal wealth to better the US but act as a massive burden. 

Congressman Troy Nehls (R-TX-22) appears to have confirmed the report in a tweet:

What we are witnessing is the Third Worldization of the USA,” Pat Buchanan recently opined.  

end

EMERGING NATIONS/STRONG USA DOLLAR

We were warning you that this would come about:  emerging nations are sending out warning signals against the soaring dollar

(zerohedge)

Emerging Markets Start Sending Out Warning Signals Against The Soaring Dollar

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 01:57 PM

A few weeks ago we said that the real Fed pivot will not take place because of some arbitrary (actually not arbitrary at all but entirely political) BLS determination of what inflation or employment is, but when the US dollar soars so high it trips trillions in dollar margin calls and finally breaks something, a something which we speculated would be in the form of “devastation across the rest of the world”, something which China – whose pegged yuan is suffering from crippling pain as a result of the soaring dollar – has realized penning a scathing anti-Fed editorial titled “The strong dollar should not become a sharp blade to cut the world.”

And with the dollar ascent relentless amid growing rumors of an imminent Plaza Accord 2.0, Bloomberg’s Simon White today looks at Turkey and Chile, which “are sending an ominous signal for broader EM equity returns” and may be the first EMs to break as a result of the soaring dollar.

Pointing to EMs with inadequate reserves and large and growing current-account deficits, White says that those EMs are most exposed to a rising dollar and higher US yields, and adds that Turkey and Chile are two of the most vulnerable EMs in this environment “yet they have seen the highest equity returns – even in USD terms – so far this year.”

While this might seem paradoxical, White counters that Chile and especially Turkey have among the highest and fastest rising levels of inflation. And equities are generally seen as an inflation hedge (which as we have repeatedly noted is an erroneous assumption to make, especially in DM markets) – leading to supportive flows. This has certainly been the case in Turkey where President Erdogan has favored rate decreases as the response to inflation now running at over 80%.

And yes, with bond yields stuck around the 10% mark, the 100%-150% returns on offer on the stock market are almost irresistible.

But now both Turkey and Chile’s stock markets are suddenly tumbling. There are reasons specific to each country that might explain this – a rout in Turkish bank stocks, political and social unrest in Chile.

But both countries are facing an increasingly intolerable reversal in capital flows, compounded by rising energy prices and, in Chile’s case, falling copper prices.

White concludes that as two of the very few EM or DM equity markets with a positive YTD return, “their recent travails are a harbinger for other EMs, most notably those highly reliant on foreign financing and a stronger dollar.”

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.99940 DOWN   0.0037 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED 

USA/ YEN 143.58   UP .403 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1431 DOWN   0.0012

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 6.80 PTS OR 0.22%

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 215.45 PTS OR 0.46%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  1.17%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 215.45 PTS OR 0.46% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.80 PTS OR 0.22% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.17% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 120.77 PTS OR .44%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1668.75

silver:$19.30

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 109.62  UP 15  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.96% UP 12  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.249% DOWN 0    AND 1/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.08%// UP 15  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.18  UP 13   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.936% UP 15 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.9985 DOWN  .0046   or 46 basis points

USA/Japan: 143.70 UP .519 OR YEN UP 47 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1399DOWN .0046 OR 46 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .01013 OR 101 BASIS pts  to 1.3344

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 7.0186 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.0282

TURKISH LIRA:  18.21  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.249

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 10  IN basis points from MONDAY at  3.585% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.594  UP 9  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 109.75 UP .28 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 51.39 PTS OR  0.71%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 137.64 POINTS OR 1.08%

Paris CAC CLOSED  DOWN 83.40 PTS OR 1.38% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 113.60OR  1.41%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 380.63PTS OR  1.72%

WTI Oil price 86.08  12: EST

Brent Oil:  92.00   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  60.16  DOWN 0  AND 1/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.79

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.99764 DOWN .0053     OR  53 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1386 DOWN  .0059 or  59 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.65 UP .475//YEN DOWN 48 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3358 UP 0.0115  (CDN dollar, DOWN 115 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 84.19

Brent OIL:  90.85

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.31

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.60  DOWN 0 AND   44/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 313.45 PTS OR 1.01 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 101.74 PTS OR 0.85%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 27.16 UP 1.40 PTS (5.43)%

GLD: $155.07 DOWN 0.89 OR 0.57%

SLV/ $17.99 DOWN 26 CENTS OR 1.45%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Dump; USD Jumps As Fed Looms

BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Anxiety ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision (and Powell’s presser) was amplified by Germany’s “hyper” PPI and surprise 100bps hike by the Riksbank… and still the dollar strengthened back to the top of its recent range…

Source: Bloomberg

And the yuan weakened (along with most Asian FX) even with the relative strength of the yuan fix…

Source: Bloomberg

And EM FX overall continued to collapse to record-er lows (against the greenback)…

Source: Bloomberg

All setting the scene for Powell to go full ‘Leeroy Jenkins’ on global markets tomorrow…

US equities were ugly again, erasing all of yesterday’s post-OpEx rally and then some. They did rally again late in the day – some suggested after headlines noted that Putin would not be addressing his nation today – but unlike yesterday’s late melt-up, today’s did not last…

Put volume relative to call volume has surged above June peak levels in recent days…

Source: Bloomberg

All of last week’s short-squeeze gains have now been erased…

Source: Bloomberg

Judging by the ongoing surge in real yields, there is a lot more room to the downside for stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

It wasn’t only stocks that were slammed lower.

Oil was down today…

Gold was down today…

Crypto was down today…

Source: Bloomberg

Russian stocks were clubbed like a baby seal on fears that Putin was escalating the war…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were where a lot of today’s focus was with yields higher across the curve as the belly underperformed (5Y +7bps, 2Y30Y +3bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Intraday, the yield on 2Y US Treasury bonds neared 4.00% (which would be the first time since October 2007)…

Source: Bloomberg

The market is assigning a 20% or so chance of a 100bps hike tomorrow, and if they go 75bps tomorrow, a 75% chance of The Fed going 75bps again in November

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, the terminal rate for Fed rate-hikes has risen to 4.49% this morning, expected in March 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Do we really think The Fed can get there without folding to political pressure or flip-flopping to abate risk-asset carnage?

As we noted earlier, how do we think Elizabeth Warren is going to react to this?

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1572213095753203713&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fstocks-bonds-bullion-bitcoin-dump-usd-jumps-fed-looms&sessionId=a723984dd817eb5a320225762275dd8f0d1adf60&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

Finally, which would you rather own: 2Y notes backed by the US govt paying 4% or the S&P 500 paying 1.7%?

Source: Bloomberg

TINA is dead.

What to expect from the markets tomorrow? With the exception of May, stocks rallied after the meetings.

As Bloomberg’s Ye Xie notes, the buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact type of price action is evident. Granted, it’s a small sample. But, with the markets pricing in a terminal rate of 4.5%, the bar is high for the Fed to surprise on the upside.

Nevertheless, none other than Dr.Doom himself, Nouriel Roubini, told Bloomberg this morning that he sees a stagflation like in the 1970s and massive debt distress as in the global financial crisis.

“It’s not going to be a short and shallow recession, it’s going to be severe, long and ugly,” he said.

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//

END

THIS AFTERNOON

ii) USA DATA//

Atlanta Fed cuts Q3 GDP to just .3% year over year after the release of the housing data.

(zerohedge)

Atlanta Fed Cuts Q3 GDP Estimate To Just +0.3% After Housing Data

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 11:22 AM

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is just 0.3 percent now, down from 0.5 percent on September 15, down from 1.4 percent on September 7, and down from 2.6 percent on September 1.

After this morning’s housing starts and permits report from the US Census Bureau, The Atlanta Fed cut its nowcast of third-quarter residential investment growth decreased from -20.8 percent to -24.5 percent.

Not a major surprise…

That follows drop in the growth outlook from downward revisions to July retail sales data and weakness in the control group weighed on growth in Q3 with weak import and export prices, as well as disappointing industrial production and capacity utilization numbers also dragging down estimates.

So to summarize – we are just 0.3% away from a 3rd negative quarterly GDP print with only ten days left in the quarter… and government spending for Q3 is forecast to be 0.34%…

Finally, remember, it’s not a “recession”, it’s a “special economic operation”

end

High mortgage rates are responsible for USA home building permits to crash last month.  But multi family starts (apartments) hit record high.

(zerohedge)

US Building Permits Crash In August, Multi-Family Starts Hit Record High

TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 08:41 AM

Following yesterday’s 9th straight monthly decline in US homebuilder sentiment – the longest losing streak since 2014 – this morning’s housing starts and permits data will be watched like a hawk (the former expected to see a small bounce MoM and the latter – more forward-looking – a big tumble MoM).

The data was ‘mixed’ to say the least – August Housing Starts exploded 12.2% MoM (+0.3%  exp) while August Building Permits crashed 10.0% MoM (-4.8% exp).

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest monthly jump in starts since March 2021 and biggest monthly crash in permits since April 2020.

The forward-looking permits print is the lowest SAAR since June 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Both single- and multi-family permits plunged on the month…

All the gains in starts were driven by multi-family units, which soared 28.6% MoM from 483K in July to 621K, highest on record!

Finally, given the sudden realization among homebuilders, we would not be surprised if building permits (the more forward-looking signal of today’s data points) collapsed in the next few months…

Source: Bloomberg

This is a dilemma for The Fed (who implicitly triggered this of course) as UBS notes, the decline of the US housing market is both disinflationary and inflationary – it lowers demand for building materials and associated durable goods, but people still have to live somewhere. If people are not buying houses, but are determined to move out of their parents’ basements, this means higher rents and more upwards pressure on the fantasy owners’ equivalent rent measure.

So be careful what you wish for Mr.Powell.

end

We have outlined this to you on many occasions: Americans are drowning in credit card debt

(zerohedge)

Americans Drowning In Long-Term Credit Card Debt: Survey

MONDAY, SEP 19, 2022 – 09:20 PM

In June we reported that consumer credit – particular revolving credit – was through the roof, as tapped-out consumers relied on credit cards to make ends meet. This has only gotten worse.Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Acccording to an Aug. 30 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, credit card balances increased by $46 billion from last year, becoming the second-biggest source of overall debt last quarter.

While both student and car loans hit all time new highs at the end of the 1st quarter.

And so it comes as no surprise from Bloomberg that more US consumers are saddled with credit card debt for longer periods of time. According to a survey by CreditCards.com released on Monday, 60% of credit card debtors have been holding this type of debt for at least a year, up 50% from a year ago, while those holding debt for over two years is up 40%, from 32%, according to the online credit card marketplace.

And while total credit-card balances remain slightly lower than pre-pandemic levels, inflation and rising interest rates are taking a toll on the already-stretched finances of US households.

About a quarter of respondents said day-to-day expenses are the primary reason why they carry a balance. Almost half cite an emergency or unexpected expense, including medical bills and home or car repair.

The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates for the fifth time this year next week. Credit-card rates are typically directly tied to the Fed Funds rate, and their increase along with a softening economy may lead to higher delinquencies. 

Total consumer debt rose $23.8 billion in July to a record $4.64 trillion, according to data from the Federal Reserve. -Bloomberg

The Fed’s figures include credit card and auto debt, as well as student loans, but does not factor in mortgage debt.

END

SWAMP STORIES

KING REPORT

The King Report September 20, 2022 Issue 6847Independent View of the News
ESZs rallied modestly during Asian trading and then flatlined until they commenced a decline at 22:08 ET.  After a modest rebound, ESZs flatlined again until they sank anew after China closed at 2 ET.  The decline ended when Europe opened.  However, the rally for the European open was modest. ESZs and stocks sank anew.  The decline persisted until the daily bottom was hit 6:18 ET. 
 
ESZs and stocks staged the usual rally for the NYSE open.  However, at 8:45 ET, ESZs sank.  Just before the NYSE opened, ESZs zoomed from 3853.25 to a daily high of 3903.75, a 56.50 explosion in 77 minutes on no news.
 
ESZs and stocks then vacillated wildly until they collapsed six minutes before Europe closed.  ESZs and stocks found a bottom at 12:06 ET.  The standard Noon Balloon appeared; it ended at 12:58 ET.  The ensuing decline ended 8 minutes after the 14:15 ET VIX Fix.  The pre-last hour rally was modest; but when the final hour arrived someone manipulated ESZs 23 handles higher in 11 minutes.
 
ESZs and stocks drifted higher, hitting daily highs at 15:38 ET.  After a 12-minute retreat, someone manipulated ESZs 20 handles higher during the final 10 minutes of NYSE trading.
 
Monday’s King Report: Traders will play for the usual Monday and post-expiry rallies.  There is no impact economic news scheduled and the window for a rally is open until the FOMC Communique on Wednesday at 14:00 ET.
 
USZs commenced a decline at 20:38 ET that ended at 8:17 ET, 17 minutes after the US bond market opened.  USZs then rallied from the low of 130 5/32 to 131 5/32 at 9:10 ET.  Sellers drove USZs down to 130 17/32 by 9:38 ET.  USZs then rallied to a new high of 131 8/32 at 11:19 ET.  USZs retreated into the European close.  Bonds then rolled over into a slow modest decline.  Lately, bond action has been very lame in the afternoons.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Early bond and equity rally in the US
Afternoon manipulation of ESZs closed stocks at daily highs
The DJTA rebounded 1.95% from its 5.07% tumble on Friday
 
Negative aspects of previous session
WTI Oil rallied modestly; Gasoline rallied sharply
Bonds declined modestly
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What will the Fed, BoE, and BoJ do later this week?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: UpLast Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3879.61
Previous session High/Low3900.45; 3838.50
 
NAHB CEO gives grim assessment of housing market: ‘We’ve given birth to a housing recession’
Jerry Howard warns housing is weakening in virtually every market, but says ‘good policy’ is the ‘cure’
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/nahb-ceo-grim-assessment-housing-market-housing-recession
 
Divided Bank of England considers biggest rate hike in 33 years
Question mark over start of ‘quantitative tightening’ as prime minister plans to borrow billions
     The majority of the 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the BOE to raise its benchmark lending rate 50 bps to 2.25% on September 22. Investors on Friday were pricing in just over a 50% chance of a 75-bps increasereining in those bets from a peak of 80% several times in the past few weeks.  Complicating this month’s decision are the politics of the BoE’s nine-member monetary policy committee and Bailey’s aim to start selling off more of the £895bn of assets the bank has built up stimulating the economy since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago…
https://www.businesslive.co.za/bloomberg/news/2022-09-19-divided-bank-of-england-considers-biggest-rate-hike-in-33-years/
 
Ford Drops as Inflation Warning Adds to Gloomy Commentary (But the Fed is gonna ease in 2024!)Carmaker sees $1 billion in added supplier costs for quarterShortages could result in 45,000 partially built vehiclesThe automaker expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion when it reports results next month. The preliminary estimate is well below the $3.7 billion in adjusted EBIT Ford reported last quarter and the $3 billion it earned a year ago. Shortages of key parts will also keep its inventory of half-completed vehicles elevated, according to a statement Monday…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ford-drops-as-inflation-warning-adds-to-gloomy-commentary/ar-AA120OH8
 
Today – As noted above and in Monday’s letter: The window for a rally is open until the FOMC Communique on Wednesday at 14:00 ET.  Traders will buy dips and try to manipulate stocks higher – possibly for a grand pump & dump at some point before the FOMC Communique is released on Wed.
 
ESZs are +16.00 and USZs are +1/32 a 20:15 ET. 
 
Expected economic data: Aug Housing Starts 1.45m, Permits 1.609m; 2-day FOMC Meeting begins
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4042; 100-day MA: 4007; 150-day MA: 4137; 200-day MA: 4255
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,223; 100-day MA: 32,075 150-day MA: 33,781; 200-day MA: 33,469
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4765.16 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4273.61 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4039.46 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3903.79 triggers a buy signal
 
@bennyjohnson: (“60 Minutes”) Reporter: How is your mental focus? JOE BIDEN: *nervous wheeze*   “Oh focused. Ha ha ha I’d say it’s, it is I haven’t … here, look. I have trouble even mentioning, even saying to myself, in my head, the number of years. I no more think of myself being old as I am than fly.”
https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1571842548360151040
 
@60Minutes: President Biden tells 60 Minutes that U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. However, after our interview, a White House official told us that U.S. policy on Taiwan has not changedhttps://cbsn.ws/3xvzbKQ
 
Biden’s insistence on Sunday night that the pandemic is over caught several of his own health officials by surpriseThe declaration was not part of his planned remarks ahead of the “60 Minutes” interview, two administration officials familiar with the matter told POLITICO…
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/18/joe-biden-pandemic-60-minutes-00057423
 
@ClayTravis: Joe Biden said US troops would defend Taiwan if China attacked but then his White House handlers immediately said that wasn’t true and American policy hasn’t changed. This is at least the fourth time this has happened recently.
 
Biden’s 60 Minutes Interview Horrifies White House: ‘Does NOT Reflect the OFFICIAL Position’
https://saraacarter.com/bidens-60-minutes-interview-horrifies-white-house-does-not-reflect-the-official-position/
 
Miranda Devine lambasts Biden for denying ties to Hunter’s shady business dealings: ‘He’s a practiced liar’ – Devine pointed to money the Biden family allegedly received from China
“The Laptop from Hell” author Miranda Devine slammed President Biden as a “practiced liar” after he claimed his innocence from son Hunter’s shady business dealings declared during a Sunday interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes.”…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/miranda-devine-lambasts-biden-denying-ties-hunters-shady-business-dealings-hes-practiced-liar
 
@lukerosiak: Newly released FAA data suggests that in 2021 as many as 425,000 illegal migrants flew out of the Rio Grande airports from which the Biden administration has been, as @mirandadivine
has shown, conducting secret night flights to cities across the U.S.
 
Border Airports Among Fastest Growing In U.S., Could Suggest Scale Of Migrant Flights In 2021
https://www.dailywire.com/news/border-airports-among-fastest-growing-in-u-s-could-suggest-scale-of-migrant-flights-in-2021
 
@StephenM: Dear GOP: if you want to recover a midterm landslide and expose all the phony “moderate” Dems who are in fact open border extremists, make the CR into a (long overdue) showdown over Biden’s deadly border apocalypse.  Democrats’ lawless anarchist zealotry must be confronted, now. (CR= Continuing Resolution to fund the government)
 
Kass: Who Feels Safe in Chicago?
The great city by the lake was once famed for its toughness and unbreakable will. But now it curls up into the fetal position as uncontrolled violent crime and legitimate concerns over the Democrat Safe-T Act–which will do away with cash bail on Jan. 1–bleed the city dry… The Safe-T Act was seen as Pritzker’s political gift from Illinois Democrats to the BLM rioters and other anti-law-enforcement political groups… Pritzker and Lightfoot don’t really do much to address crime because the media already has their backs. They make pleasant urgent sounds about wanting to combat the rise in violent crime but doing so would involve pushing for more arrests of violent criminals. And that would cost their politics…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/kass-who-feels-safe-chicago

Greg Hunter 

Greg Hunter..

See you on TOMORROW

Harvey

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