OCT 10.2022: THIN MARKET CONDITIONS DUE TO COLUMBUS DAY HOLIDAY CAUSES PRECIOUS METALS TO FALL: GOLD FALLS BY $33.50 TO $1668.20//SILVER DROPS 65 CENTS TO $19.59//PLATINUM IS DOWN $19.65 TO $899.65//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $39.40 TO $2156.25//FIRST UKRAINE BOMBS THE KERCH STRAIT BRIDGE LINKING RUSSIA TO CRIMEA (SATURDAY), THEN RUSSIA BOMBS KEY CITIES OF KIEV, ODESSA AND KHARKOV..MAJOR UPDATES ON THIS ISSUE//BANK OF ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE INTEREST RATES TO FIGHT INFLATION DESPITE PROBLEMS WITH INSURANCE COMPANIES AND PENSION FUNDS//SAME TROUBLE WITH GERMAN INSURANCE AND PENSION FUNDS//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT, VACCINE INJURIES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER.

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: DOWN  $33.50 to $1668.20

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  DOWN $0.65 to $19.59

Access prices: closes

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1667.70

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 19.61

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $19,254 DOWN 228

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,254 DOWN 228

Platinum price closing DOWN 19.65 AT  $899.65

Palladium price; closing DOWN $39.40  at $2156.25

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/closing ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD $2296.90 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ DOWN $25.75 CDN DOLLARS

BRITISH GOLD IN POUNDS: 1507.00 POUNDS PER OZ DOWN 18.57 BRITISH POUNDS PER OZ/

EURO GOLD: 1717.50 EUROS PER OZ// DOWN 18.30 EUROS PER OZ///

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,700.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/07/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 10/11/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 1
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 8
132 C SG AMERICAS 138 3
323 H HSBC 2
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 29
661 C JP MORGAN 81
800 C MAREX SPEC 6 17
880 C CITIGROUP 2


TOTAL: 144 144
MONTH TO DATE: 21,519

JPMORGAN STOPPED  81/144 

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT CONTRACT:     144 NOTICES FOR 14400 OZ //.4477 TONNES

total notices so far: 21,519 contracts for 2,151,900 oz (66.933 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 38 NOTICES FILED FOR 190,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  359 :  for 1,795,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 473.130 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 83  CONTRACTS TO 126,402    AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE TINY LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE  $0.37 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.37). HOWEVER OUR SPEC SHORTS ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE COMEX OI SHORTFALL.  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) MINIMAL  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWING A 185,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ MINIMAL SPEC COVERING THEIR SHORTS.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: –263

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 8 days, total 49,775 contracts:  24.887 million oz  OR 3.1109MILLION OZ PER DAY. (622 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 24.887  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  24.887 MILLION OZ INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 83 WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE $0.37 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 350 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS //  SMALL SHORT ADDITIONS//SMALL NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS//  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT. OF 1.580 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 185,000 QUEUE JUMP  .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 267 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 1.335 MILLION  OZ..

 WE HAD 38  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  190,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 6 CONTRACTS  TO 433,153 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED —  -750 CONTRACTS.

.

THE TINY SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $10.70//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY //  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF  7300 OZ//NEW STANDING 67.906 TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF  $10.70 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2192 OI CONTRACTS 6.818 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1436 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 433,253

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1442 CONTRACTS  WITH 6 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1436 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1442 CONTRACTS OR 4.48 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1436) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (6): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1442 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS///NEWBIE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 7300 OZ QUEUE JUMP///NEW STANDING 67.906 TONNES//.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT. :

16,585 CONTRACTS OR 1,658,500 OZ OR 51.58 TONNES 8TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2073 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 51.58 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  57.58/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.63% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  57.58  TONNES INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 83 CONTRACT OI TO  126,209 AND FURTHER FROM   OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 350 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 350  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 83  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 350  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN  OF 267  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.335 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.37

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 50.24 PTS OR 1.66%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 523.39 OR 2.95%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 195.19PTS OR 0.71%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.49%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.1474 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1514//    /Oil UP TO 91,87 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 97.25    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  MOSTLY RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 6 CONTRACTS TO 433,253 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS SMALL  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH DESPITE OUR STRONG  FALL IN PRICE OF $10.70  IN GOLD PRICING  FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1436 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1436 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :1436 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1436 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED  TOTAL OF 2192  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1436 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 756  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $10.70//WE HAD SPEC SHORTS ADDING TO THEIR POSITIONS  WITH BANKERS TAKING THE OTHER SIDE AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS.  

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING OCT   (67.906),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  67.906 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $10.70) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1442 CONTRACTS //     WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR GAIN  OF 6.818 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (67.906 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH A FALL IN PRICE OF $10.70 

WE HAD -750  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2192 CONTRACTS OR 219200  OZ OR  6.818 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 153,932//  poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  168,097/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT ’22 COMEX GOLD //OCT 10

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz157,218.396oz

BRINKS
Delaware
JPMorgan
includes
 8 and 2948 kilobars

 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz353,661  oz
Brinks
11 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today144   notice(s)
14400  OZ
0.4479 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)457 contracts 
45700oz
1.421
 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month21,375 notices
2,137,500
66.485 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

Into Brinks:  353.661 (11 kilobars)

total deposits 353.661 oz

 customer withdrawals: 3

i) Out of Brinks: 62,180.04 oz 

ii) Out of Delaware: 257.208 oz (8 kilobars)

iii) Out of JPMorgan:  94,781.148 oz (2948 kilobars)

total:  157,218.396     oz   

total in tonnes: 4.89 tonnes

Adjustments: 2//  all dealer to customer

Brinks: 16,636.767 oz

Manfra: 1101.154 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT we have an  oi of 601 contracts having GAINED 32 contracts . We had  41 contracts

filed on FRIDAY, so we gained 73 contracts or an additional 7300 oz will stand in this active delivery month of Oct.

We will gain gold oz standing on each and every trading day from this day forth until the conclusion of October.

(remember that queue jumping is really EFP’s exercised from London for gold underwritten by COMEX based bankers)

November GAINED 113 contracts to stand at 2959

December lost 2026 contracts down to 370,723

We had 144 notice(s) filed today for 14400 oz FOR THE OCT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 144 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 144 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,519) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (OCT 601 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 144 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,183200 OZ  OR 67.906 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of OCT. (TOTALS CORRECTED FROM FRIDAY)

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (21,519) x 100 oz+   (601)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (144} x 100 oz} which equals 2,183,200, oz standing OR 67.906  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of OCTOBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  67.906 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR OCT (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,067,434 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 340.166 tonnes//rapidly declining 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  26,125,011.865 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,796,922.668  OZ (398.03 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,328,089.202 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,729,579OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 333.73 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 10//INITIAL OCT SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory671,353.473oz
Brinks
JPM

CNT


 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz









 
No of oz served today (contracts)38 CONTRACT(S)  
 190,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)37 contracts 
(185,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)359 contracts
 1,795,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  0 deposits into the customer account

Total deposits: nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 160.806million oz/311.952million =51.54% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 3  

i)Out of CNT 67,412.873 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 3807.600 oz

iii) OUt of JPMorgan: 600,133.000

total withdrawals:  671,353.473  oz

 adjustments: // 1

Brinks: dealer to customer:  14,577.213 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 40.130 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 311.952 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT OI: 77 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 31 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 68 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE  GAINED 37

SILVER CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 185,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR OCT.

NOVEMBER GAINED 6 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 402

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 2026 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 105,311

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 68 for  340,000 oz

Comex volumes:60,009// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 67,161 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  359 x 5,000 oz = 1,795,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(77) and the number of notices served upon today 38  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT./2022 contract month: 359 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (77)  – number of notices served upon today (38) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates 1,980,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:61,618// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 54,383contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

SEPT 30  WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 944.31 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER  UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 473.170 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: You’ll Need Gold When The Fed Loses This Inflation Fight

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 08:40 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Some people in the mainstream have been talking about gold’s demise as an important financial asset. Meanwhile, central banks continue to buy gold. What are the gold naysayers missing? Peter Schiff appeared on Fox Business with Charles Payne to talk about the price of gold and why some investors are starting to realize they’ll need gold as the Fed loses its inflation fight.

Payne opened up the interview by saying, “You’ve heard about the death of gold a million times. But what is it that people forget about gold? When it’s going down, moving flat, not moving, and it feels like, OK, it’s no longer what it might have been in the past.”

Peter said, “I didn’t get the memo!”

And had I gotten that memo, I would have just thrown it in the trash. But what a lot of people don’t realize about gold is that it’s money.  It is liquidity. It’s everything else that loses value in relationship to gold. Gold is a better form of money than anything governments have come up with to replace it. And in times like this, where we have inflation that’s going to run out of control, and central banks that are powerless to rein it in because they’ve created it, and they’ve created economies that are dependent on it, more and more people, including central banks, are going to be returning to gold.”

Peter pointed out that gold sold off based on the notion that the Federal Reserve was going to win its fight against inflation. We had a rally in gold after the Bank of England surrendered to inflation and pivoted back to lose monetary policy to rescue its pension system. Peter said some people might be starting to realize that the Fed isn’t going to win either.

The Bank of England was just as committed to fighting inflation as Powell, but as soon as it created the beginnings of a financial crisis, they did an about-face and went right back to quantitative easing. I think the same predicament is going to befall the Federal Reserve, and before too long, inflation is going to take a back seat to an even greater crisis — a financial crisis and a worsening recession. And the Fed is going to go right back to more quantitative easing. There’ll be no more rate hikes. In fact, there may be rate cuts. Inflation is going to be nowhere near 2% when they do that. In fact, it’s headed closer to 20%.”

Payne agreed with Peter, saying the Fed’s best weapon has been “jaw-boning,” and that he doesn’t see the central bank going as far as it claims. He also brought up the issue of the $31 trillion national debt. Will higher interest rates spark a debt crisis for the US government?

Peter reminded us that a year ago, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said there was no reason to worry about the national debt because interest rates were so low.

Well, now interest rates have skyrocketed.”

When Janet Yellen made that comment, the yield on a 1-year T-bill was about .25%. Now it’s 4%.

You’ve got a 16-fold increase in the cost of funding that debt. And remember, that debt keeps having to be rolled over. The government has very short financing on this national debt. So, it’s already a problem. And it’s going to become a much bigger problem. It’s one of the reasons the Fed is going to chicken out in the fight against inflation. Because the US government would be forced to default on that debt if it actually let interest rates rise high enough to bring inflation down to 2%.”

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

Shhh! Don’t Tell the Fed or Mainstream Media that Systemic Contagion at Wall Street Banks Is Already Here

Stock 
Prices of Wall Street Mega Banks from October 7, 2021 
through October 7, 2022

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 10, 2022

At Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s last press conference on September 21 he said that there is “good reason to think that this will continue to be a reasonably strong economy.” Unfortunately, the U.S. can’t have a strong economy without strong banks willing and able to lend. And there are serious storm fronts in that area that the Fed Chair and mainstream media are choosing to ignore.

Last week multiple news outlets raised the question as to whether the troubles at Credit Suisse signaled another “Lehman moment.” (See herehere, and here, for example.) A “Lehman moment” refers to the former 158-year old Wall Street investment bank, Lehman Brothers, collapsing into bankruptcy on September 15, 2008 during a widening financial crisis on Wall Street. Because Lehman was the only major Wall Street firm that the Fed allowed to collapse into bankruptcy (rather than orchestrating a bailout), it has been mistakenly viewed all these years as the catalyst for the carnage that followed. As we will explain shortly, that role rightfully belongs to Citigroup.

According to documents released by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC), at the time of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy it had more than 900,000 derivative contracts outstanding and had used the largest banks on Wall Street as its counterparties to many of these trades. The FCIC data shows that Lehman had more than 53,000 derivative contracts with JPMorgan Chase; more than 40,000 with Morgan Stanley; over 24,000 with Citigroup’s Citibank; over 23,000 with Bank of America; and almost 19,000 with Goldman Sachs.

Below is a share price chart of what contagion looked like on Wall Street in 2008. Notice the highly correlated share price pattern in 2008 and the highly correlated share price pattern in the chart above in 2022.

This Is What Wall Street's 
Systemic Contagion Looked Like in 2008

Lehman’s interconnectedness with other major Wall Street firms certainly fueled some of the systemic contagion on Wall Street in 2008. But the real culprit was Citigroup – a reckless trading house on Wall Street which owned, both then and now, a large federally-insured commercial bank, Citibank. These are just a few of the headlines about Citigroup that ran long before Lehman’s collapse into bankruptcy:

January 10, 2008, Wall Street Journal: “Citigroup, Merrill Seek More Foreign Capital,” noting: “Two of the biggest names on Wall Street are going hat in hand, again, to foreign investors.”

January 17, 2008, Los Angeles Times: “Citigroup Loses Nearly $10 Billion”

March 5, 2008, MarketWatch: “Citigroup CEO Says Firm ‘Financially Sound’” with the opening sentence explaining that “The chief executive of Citigroup sought to allay investor fears Wednesday, a day after the stock hit a multiyear low…”

April 20, 2008, New York Times: “Citigroup Records a Loss and Plans 9000 Layoffs,” explaining that the bank reported a $5.1 billion loss and would have to slash jobs.

June 26, 2008, Wall Street Journal: “Citigroup: Worth Less and Less Every Day,” shares the news that the stock was worth one-third of where it had been at its 52-week high.

July 23, 2008, Bloomberg News: “Citigroup Unravels as Reed Regrets Universal Model.”

On July 14, 2008, Bloomberg News reported that in addition to holding $2.2 trillion in assets on its balance sheet, Citigroup has $1.1 trillion of “mysterious” assets off its balance sheet, including “trusts to sell mortgage-backed securities, financing vehicles to issue short-term debt and collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, to repackage bonds.”

Sheila Bair, the Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 2008, wrote the following about Citigroup in her book Bull by the Horns:

“By November [2008], the supposedly solvent Citi was back on the ropes, in need of another government handout. The market didn’t buy the OCC’s and NY Fed’s strategy of making it look as though Citi was as healthy as the other commercial banks. Citi had not had a profitable quarter since the second quarter of 2007. Its losses were not attributable to uncontrollable ‘market conditions’; they were attributable to weak management, high levels of leverage, and excessive risk taking. It had major losses driven by their exposures to a virtual hit list of high-risk lending; subprime mortgages, ‘Alt-A’ mortgages, ‘designer’ credit cards, leveraged loans, and poorly underwritten commercial real estate. It had loaded up on exotic CDOs and auction-rate securities. It was taking losses on credit default swaps entered into with weak counterparties, and it had relied on unstable volatile funding – a lot of short-term loans and foreign deposits. If you wanted to make a definitive list of all the bad practices that had led to the crisis, all you had to do was look at Citi’s financial strategies…What’s more, virtually no meaningful supervisory measures had been taken against the bank by either the OCC or the NY Fed…Instead, the OCC and the NY Fed stood by as that sick bank continued to pay major dividends and pretended that it was healthy.”

Notice the sentence in the above paragraph that reads: “It was taking losses on credit default swaps entered into with weak counterparties….” Bair was describing the situation in 2008. Now consider this headline we ran just last week at Wall Street On ParadeNew Study: Wall Street Banks Are Doubling Down on Risk by Selling Credit Default Swaps on their Risky Derivatives Counterparties. It is nothing less than an indictment of the U.S. Congress that this is allowed to happen after derivatives caused the greatest U.S. economic collapse in 2008 since the Great Depression.

The official report from the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, following an in- depth investigation of the 2008 collapse, wrote this about Credit Default Swaps:

“OTC derivatives contributed to the crisis in three significant ways. First, one type of derivative—credit default swaps (CDS)—fueled the mortgage securitization pipeline. CDS were sold to investors to protect against the default or decline in value of mortgage-related securities backed by risky loans…

“Second, CDS were essential to the creation of synthetic CDOs. These synthetic CDOs were merely bets on the performance of real mortgage- related securities. They amplified the losses from the collapse of the housing bubble by allowing multiple bets on the same securities and helped spread them throughout the financial system…

“Finally, when the housing bubble popped and crisis followed, derivatives were in the center of the storm. AIG, which had not been required to put aside capital reserves as a cushion for the protection it was selling, was bailed out when it could not meet its obligations. The government ultimately committed more than $180 billion because of concerns that AIG’s collapse would trigger cascading losses throughout the global financial system. In addition, the existence of millions of derivatives contracts of all types between systemically important financial institutions—unseen and unknown in this unregulated market—added to uncertainty and escalated panic, helping to precipitate government assistance to those institutions.”

This morning the Bank of England is in full blown crisis mode, setting up another emergency bailout facility that is very similar to that used by the Fed during the 2008 financial crisis. And, once again, derivatives are at the heart of the problem.

For its part, the Fed announced last year that it had, for the first time in its 109-year history, created a Standing Repo Facility where, on a permanent basis it will make $500 billion available to bail out the hubris on Wall Street. The Fed Chair has the power to increase that $500 billion on a temporary basis at his “discretion.”

And if all of this wasn’t sickening enough, the Fed Chairman who set the Fed on the course of endless Wall Street bailouts, quantitative easing, and destructive meddling in markets — Ben Bernanke — was one of three receiving the Nobel Prize in economic sciences this morning. (You can’t make this stuff up.)

It’s long past the time for the United States Congress to put an end to these serial bailouts of Wall Street by the Fed and pass legislation to restore the Glass-Steagall Act so that the casinos on Wall Street are permanently separated from the nation’s federally-insured banks.

-END-

end

Lawrie Williams

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Fascinating!

New Wyoming currency, the Goldback, is printed with actual gold

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-10-07 20:46Section: Daily Dispatches

By Kevin Killough
Cowboy State Daily, Cheyenne, Wyoming
Monday, September 26, 2022

A private currency company is hoping its new Wyoming currency has the Midas touch for users.

Utah-based Goldback Inc. has released a Wyoming Series of its Goldback bills printed with physical gold in the currency, which the company says makes its value more stable than the U.S. dollar.

Nearly 40 Cowboy State businesses are featured on the company’s website as expressing interest in accepting Wyoming Goldbacks. 

Trying to make purchases with actual gold runs into a few impracticalities. If you plopped down an ounce of gold to buy groceries — putting aside the fact that businesses don’t accept gold as payment — that ounce of gold is worth nearly $2,000. Shaving that down to pay for $100 worth of groceries isn’t easy. … 


In spring 2019, Jeremy Cordon, president and founder of Goldbacks Inc., began working on a way that small consumer purchases could be made with physical gold. 

Buying a pack of gum could cost a couple bucks. In physical gold, that’s about a sixth the size of a BB from a BB gun. 

“No one could ever weigh it. No one can ever verify its purity,” he said. “So in raw gold form, you can’t circulate it because it just doesn’t make sense.”

That’s where the Goldback comes in. Goldbacks are bills you can put into your wallet. The bill with the least amount of gold contains 1/1,000th of an ounce, but they also come with larger amounts of gold. The bill has a layer of polymer with all the artwork on it, as well as six anti-counterfeiting measures, Mills said.

The gold is atomized and layered onto the polymer “literally atom by atom,” Mills said. … 

For the remainder of the report:

end

How a ban on Russia’s mining giants could shake the metals world

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-10-08 10:36Section: Daily Dispatches

By Jack Farchy
Bloomberg News
Saturday, October 8, 2022

A possible ban on Russian supplies by the London Metal Exchange would be a seismic event for the metals industry, cutting some of the world’s biggest companies off from the main global marketplace.

The exchange has yet to make a decision, but on Thursday launched a formal three-week discussion process on the possibility of banning Russian metal, potentially as soon as next month.

In practice, a ban would simply mean that metal from Russia — which accounts for about 9% of global nickel production, 5% of aluminum and 4% of copper — could no longer be delivered into any warehouses around the world in the LME network, which store metal used to deliver against futures contracts when they expire.

But the debate, and potential fallout, provide a stark case study of how deeply the LME is intertwined with all corners of the physical metals industry. Despite being a private company owned by Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd., the exchange’s decisions have far-reaching consequences for the way in which metal is priced and traded globally. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-08/how-a-ban-on-russia-s-mining-giants-could-shake-the-metals-world

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD

Another Ponzi scheme 

special thanks to John Adams for providing this for us:

Release Number 8606-22

CFTC Charges Delaware Precious Metals Dealer, Depository, and Their Owner with Ongoing Fraud

October 05, 2022

Washington, D.C. — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today announced that it filed a civil enforcement action in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware against a precious metals dealer, Argent Asset Group LLC (Argent), and a precious metals depository, First State Depository Company, LLC (FSD), both of Wilmington, Delaware, and their owner, Robert Leroy Higgins (Higgins) of West Chester, Pennsylvania, charging them with fraud in connection with a multimillion-dollar precious metals scheme. 

On September 29, U.S. District Court Judge Richard Andrews signed an ex parte statutory restraining order freezing assets controlled by the defendants, preserving records, and appointing a temporary receiver. A status hearing is scheduled for October 11.

In continuing litigation against the defendants, the CFTC seeks restitution, disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, permanent trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction against further violations of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC regulations, as charged. 

“As this enforcement action shows, the CFTC will vigorously investigate and seek to hold accountable those who make false promises and misappropriate customer funds,” said Acting Director of Enforcement Gretchen Lowe. 

Case Background 

The complaint alleges that from approximately January 2014 through the present, Argent and FSD, acting as a common enterprise controlled by Higgins, engaged in a fraudulent and deceptive scheme to solicit and misappropriate at least $7 million in funds and silver from at least 200 customers in connection with a fraudulent silver leasing program referred to as the “Maximus Program.” The complaint further alleges Higgins either directly engaged in deceptive conduct in furtherance of the scheme or did so indirectly by virtue of his being the control person of Argent and FSD. 

As alleged in the complaint, the Maximus Program purported to offer customers guaranteed monthly lease payments in exchange for the use of silver purportedly purchased from Argent or silver owned by customers. Customers were told they would earn a monthly “lease” payment based on a sliding scale that in part depended on the amount of silver the Maximus customers leased to Argent. Customers were falsely told, among other things, that Argent would acquire silver on their behalf, their silver was securely stored by FSD in a storage facility, and their investments were guaranteed and fully insured. 

In reality, as alleged in the complaint, customers’ precious metals were not securely stored at FSD, but instead were misappropriated by the defendants. Moreover, on several occasions, the defendants also misappropriated funds intended to be used to purchase metals.

As alleged in the complaint, the defendants’ fraudulent scheme was not limited to the Maximus Program. The defendants misappropriated other client assets and misled and deceived those clients when they attempted to withdraw their assets or transfer them to another depository. In addition, the defendants lied about the insurance coverage FSD maintained and failed to adequately insure its clients’ assets despite representations and guarantees it made to the contrary.

The CFTC acknowledges and thanks the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom for their assistance in this matter.

The Division of Enforcement staff members responsible for this action are Erica Bodin, Michael Loconte, Brian A. Hunt, Michael Solinsky, and Rick Glaser. 

CFTC’s Precious Metals Customer Fraud Advisory 

The CFTC has issued several customer protection Fraud Advisories and Articles that provide the warning signs of fraud, including the Precious Metals Fraud Advisory, which alerts customers to precious metals fraud and lists simple ways to spot precious metals scams. 

The CFTC also strongly urges the public to verify a company’s registration with the CFTC before committing funds. If unregistered, a customer should be wary of providing funds to that entity. A company’s registration status can be found at NFA BASIC

Customers and other individuals can report suspicious activities or information, such as possible violations of commodity trading laws, to the Division of Enforcement via a toll-free hotline 866-FON-CFTC (866-366-2382), file a tip or complaint online, or contact the Whistleblower Office. Whistleblowers are eligible to receive between 10 and 30 percent of the monetary sanctions collected paid from the Customer Protection Fund financed through monetary sanctions paid to the CFTC by violators of the CEA. 

-CFTC

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: 

end 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1474 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1514

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 50.24 PTS OR 1.66%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 523.39 OR 2.85% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 195.19 PTS OR 0.71%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  MOSTLY RED

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  113.55/Euro FALLS TO 0.96960

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.244/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 145.53/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.205%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.73%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.42%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.882//

3j Gold at $1676/35//silver at: 19.80  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1  AND71/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 62.63//

3m oil into the 91 dollar handle for WTI and  97 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 145.53DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9987– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9682well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.888 UP 1 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.848 UP 1 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,58…GETTTING DANGEROUS

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Slide, Global Chip Stocks Tumble On Hard-Landing Fears, Latest China Tech Curbs

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 08:06 AM

US equity futures extended last week’s post-payrolls slump, and as of 730am ET traded -0.2% at 3,646, having bounced off the session’s worst levels down as much as -1%, while European stocks fell for the fourth straight day as concerns mounted that central bank policy-tightening would send the global economy into a hard landing (as Michael Hartnett warned) taking a heavy toll on the global economy and company earnings. The dollar extended its gains while bonds were closed for trading on the Columbus Day bond market holiday; cryptos were flat.

The semiconductor sector saw an across-the-board hit from Washington’s decision to further restrict exports of cutting-edge chips and chipmaking tools to China, adding to the headaches for an industry already hit by a slump in demand.  Europe-listed Infineon, STMicro and OSRAM dropped, while in premarket New York trade, chipmakers Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices shed more than 1% each. Hong Kong Hang Seng Tech index plunged as much as 4.1% after fresh US tech curbs send Chinese semiconductor stocks tumbling. Mainland shares fall after a week-long break as Caixin services PMI returns to contraction territory and reports show sharp slide in holiday spending.

In premarket trading, Ford shares dropped 3.9% after a downgrade to sell at UBS due to weak profit margins. Meanwhile, General Motors (GM US) falls 3% after being cut to neutral from buy, with UBS seeing “demand destruction” for its EV segment after a strong start. Kraft shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading, as Goldman upgrades the stock to buy and downgrades home/personal care “bellwether” P&G to neutral, adding more food exposure within US consumer staples coverage. Here are other notable premarket movers:

  • Rivian (RIVN US) falls as much as 7.6% in premarket trading after the EV maker said it will recall about 13,000 vehicles it delivered to customers after discovering a minor structural defect.
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) falls as much as 2.9% in US premarket trading after Barclays initiates coverage of the ride-sharing and delivery provider at equal-weight, questioning whether the business can continue to thrive as lower income levels and saying car ownership in Southeast Asia may have implications for longer-term profitability.
  • US-listed Chinese stocks drop in premarket trading, with sentiment hurt by weak holiday spending data during the Golden Week and new Covid flareups across the country one week before the key Communist Party congress.
  • Alibaba (BABA US) -1.6%, Baidu (BIDU US) -1.5%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) -2.1%, JD.com (JD US) -1.9%, Bilibili (BILI US) -5.6%
  • US-listed Macau casino operators drop in New York premarket trading after Citigroup cut its estimate of Macau’s gross gaming revenue in October to 5.5 billion patacas from 7 billion patacas, citing disappointing revenue during the first nine days of this month.
  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) shares -3.1%, Melco Resorts (MLCO US) -1.7%, Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) -2.2%, MGM Resorts (MGM US) -1.2%
  • Keep an eye on Meta (META US) and Alphabet (GOOGL US), as Morgan Stanley trimmed its price targets on the stocks citing low visibility for the digital ads market. Even so, the brokerage expects October to be strong for the sector, given continued efforts to pull forward consumer holiday demand.

While the bond market is closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday and there is no macro on deck Monday, an action-packed week lies ahead, with inflation data due Thursday and the third-quarter earnings season kicking off in earnest. Hotter-than-expected CPI growth would heap pressure on policy makers to extend 75 basis-point rate hikes beyond this year. Minutes of the latest Fed policy meeting on Wednesday may provide insight into where the pain threshold lies for Fed officials, who are so far resolutely hawkish in their message that neither financial-market volatility nor the threat of an economic downturn will deter them from raising rates. Investors are also bracing for disappointment from the coming earnings season, with more than 60% of the 724 respondents to Bloomberg’s latest Pulse poll predicting the season would push the S&P 500 Index lower.

The poll underscored Wall Street’s fear that even after this year’s brutal selloff, stocks have not priced all the risks stemming from central banks’ aggressive tightening and stubbornly high inflation. Over the weekend, Goldman’s David Kostin warned that the soaring dollar could hammer corporate earnings. While JPMorgan, Citigroup and other big banks report this week, iPhone maker Apple is in particular focus as its report is expected to offer insight into themes ranging from global consumer demand to the impact of dollar strength.

“The narrative will start changing from central banks and inflation, to one of weaker growth and downward earnings revisions that is going to weigh on risk sentiment over coming weeks,” Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar wrote in a note.

Doubling down on his relentless pessimism, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warned that the bear market in US stocks won’t be over until earnings forecasts are cut further or share valuations better reflect the risks.

European stocks declined for the 4th day in a row; the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.8%. DAX outperforms peers, dropping 0.2%, CAC 40 lags, retreating 0.9%. Consumer products, tech and utilities are the worst-performing sectors. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Renault shares jump as much as 6.8% as analysts highlight press reports saying the French carmaker and Japanese partner Nissan are in talks to reshape their two decade-old alliance.
  • DS Smith jumps as much as 12% after its trading update noted strong revenue growth and “effective cost mitigation,” which analysts said is set to trigger consensus upgrades to FY23 Ebita. Its paper-packaging peers Mondi and Smurfit Kappa also advanced.
  • Unite Group’s shares rose as much as 4.2% after a trading update that Peel Hunt said shows robust demand, with a return of students en masse driving full occupancy and an uplift to 2023/24 rental growth guidance.
  • Deutsche Bank shares rise as much as 3.4%, the most in the Stoxx 600 Bank Index, after Kepler Cheuvreux says it expects 3Q earnings to beat consensus.
  • Credit Suisse shares gained as much as 3.7% after Bloomberg News reported that its SPG unit has drawn interest from bidders including Pimco and Centerbridge.
  • ASML shares drop 3.2% as European semiconductor stocks continue to slide on Monday, after the US announcement of more restrictions on exports of cutting- edge chips and chipmaking tools to China added to the headaches for an industry already hit by a slump in demand.
  • Stocks including SSE, Drax and Centrica post the biggest declines in the utilities sub-sector after the Financial Times reported the UK government is pushing ahead with plans to cap renewable electricity revenues with legislation that could be unveiled next week. Drax drop as much as -6.5%
  • Casino shares slumped as much as 13% to a fresh all-time low after S&P lowered its credit rating on the French grocer, saying the company faces added pressure on its ability to refinance its debts because of the tougher retail environment in France.

In Britain, the Bank of England stepped up its measures to support market functioning as its emergency gilt buying measures entered their final week. The UK central bank said it will increase the size of its buying operations for the next five days to a maximum of £10 billion ($10.8 billion), from £5 billion previously. However, UK long-dated bonds shrugged off the news, with 10-year yields rising 6 basis points.

Focus is also training on Italy where the yield premium demanded by investors to hold Italian debt compared to Germany has surged to the highest since 2020, after ratings agency Moody’s warned of the need to keep national debt on a sustainable path.

Earlier in the session, equities across Asia declined Monday as strong US jobs data quelled hopes for a less hawkish Fed, while China traders returning from holiday added to the selling pressure.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.4%, falling to its lowest in a week. Consumer discretionary and financials were the biggest drag. China’s CSI 300 closed at its lowest since April 2020 as bleak consumption data and lockdown fears gripped traders as markets reopened after a week-long break. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and the Philippines were among the worst decliners in the region after the US unemployment rate unexpectedly returned to a historic low, bolstering the case for another 75 basis point hike by the Fed. Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan markets were closed for a holiday. The data and comments from Fed officials recently are “throwing cold water on the idea of a Fed pivot,” Nomura strategists including Chetan Seth wrote in a note.

While a much-softer-than-expected US CPI reading this week may lead to a stock rally, “it will likely not last as the market — and the Fed — will want to see a series of low monthly inflation readings before expecting a definite pause,” they added. US consumer inflation data will be released Thursday, helping set the tone for the Fed’s decision early next month. Traders are also turning their attention to the latest earnings season and China’s Covid restrictions ahead of the much-awaited party congress in mid October

Australian stocks tumbled the most in two weeks as the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.4% to 6,667.80 after strong US jobs data bolstered bets for more aggressive Fed hikes. The Australian benchmark dropped the most since Sept. 26 as all sectors retreated. Banks and miners contributed the most to the gauge’s decline. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.7% to 10,918.48.

Stocks in India extended their decline to a second day as investors booked profits in some of the recent sectoral outperformers, including consumer goods firms. Software makers were the top performers ahead of the start of the sector’s quarterly results season. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 57,991.11, its biggest single-day drop since Oct. 3. The NSE Nifty 50 Index ended 0.4% lower after paring a plunge of as much as 1.4%. All but two of 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by consumer durables makers. Tata Consultancy Services will kick-start the earnings season for the September quarter later on Monday. The software exporter’s shares advanced 1.8%.  Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.1%. Out of 30 shares in the index, 11 rose, while 19 fell.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as the greenback advanced versus all of its Group-of-10 peers.

  • The euro dropped below 0.97 per dollar. The BOE said it will increase the size of its buying operations for the next five days to a maximum of £10 billion from £5 billion previously. Officials will also launch a Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility.
  • The pound fell against a broadly stronger dollar, edging lower to trade around 1.10 against the dollar,  but rallied against the euro. The BOE said it will increase the size of its buying operations for the next five days to a maximum of £10 billion from £5 billion previously. Officials will also launch a Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility
  • The yen traded below 145 per dollar. One-week implied volatility in the dollar-yen has fallen to trade well below highs seen last month, even as the currency pair closes on 145.90 — a level that triggered a near $20 billion intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The Japanese currency has fallen for eight weeks in a row, its longest-losing streak since May
  • The Aussie slid to the weakest level in more than two years after stronger-than-expected US payroll numbers on Friday boosted expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes

In rates, treasury futures drifted lower led by ultra-long contracts following a wider steepening move across the UK gilt curve with cash bond trading closed for Columbus Day in the US.   Futures are lower by up to 23 ticks in the ultra-long bond contracts which lead losses on the session; 10-year note futures are lower by 3 ticks trading around 111-12 and inside Friday session range. UK gilts are cheaper by up to 16.5bp across 30-year sector, while UK long-end real yields surge ahead of Tuesday’s 2051 linker sale. US auctions resume Tuesday with 3-year note sale, followed by 10- and 30-year auctions Wednesday and Thursday. UK bonds also declined, led by long-end; 30-year yield rises above 4.5%. Bunds 10-year yield rises ~3bps to 2.16%. UK bonds fell even after the Bank of England stepped up measures to support market functioning as its emergency gilt buying measures entered their final week.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly softer after settling higher by over USD 4.00/bbl and USD 3.50/bbl respectively on Friday. WTI dipped below $92, down 0.7% after last week’s 17% gain, while Brent traded just around $97. French petrol station woes reportedly deepened as strikes continued and the French Energy Ministry stated that 29.7% of service stations were experiencing supply difficulties with at least one fuel product as of 3pm on Sunday vs 21% of service stations on Saturday. Furthermore, TotalEnergies (TTE FP) called on the responsibility of workers to ensure that the country is well supplied with fuel and proposed to bring forward the compulsory annual negotiations to October subject to the end of blockades, according to Reuters. Spot gold fell roughly $14 to trade near $1,681/oz; it traded lower in tandem with strength in the DXY, with the yellow metal’s 21 DMA around 1,678/oz. Base metals are mixed but LME copper and Chinese iron ore futures buck the trend.

Bitcoin is on a softer footing and remains under the USD 19,500 mark whilst Ethereum holds onto 1,300 status.

There is nothing on today’s US economic calendar; Fed speakers include Evans and Brainard.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 3,625.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 388.37
  • MXAP down 1.4% to 140.77
  • MXAPJ down 1.9% to 454.16
  • Nikkei down 0.7% to 27,116.11
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,906.80
  • Hang Seng Index down 3.0% to 17,216.66
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.7% to 2,974.15
  • Sensex down 0.8% to 57,712.89
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 6,667.75
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,232.84
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.18%
  • Euro down 0.6% to $0.9688
  • Brent Futures down 0.8% to $97.11/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.9% to $1,680.29
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.42% to 113.27

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Biden administration’s new restrictions on technology exports to China could undercut the country’s ability to develop wide swaths of its economy, from semiconductors and supercomputers to surveillance systems and advanced weapons
  • Missiles struck Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities early Monday, two days after an attack on a key bridge to Crimea that Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed on Ukraine
  • Norway’s inflation hit a new 34-year high last month, in a development that may boost expectations of another half-point hike by Norges Bank in November. Headline inflation accelerated to 6.9% in September, above the median projection of 6.2% in Bloomberg analyst poll, and the central bank’s forecast of 6%
  • The Danish island of Bornholm, located in the Baltic Sea near the Nord Stream pipelines, was been hit by a complete power failure on Monday, broadcaster DR reported, citing the local energy company
  • Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced the dissolution of parliament on Monday, paving the way for elections this year as his ruling party seeks to strengthen its position following a run of successful local polls

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks were negative in a holiday-thinned start to the week with market closures in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, while the region digested a contraction in Chinese Caixin PMI data and the recent stronger-than-expected US jobs data which paves the way for the Fed to continue with its hawkish normalisation. ASX 200 was led lower by gold miners and tech stocks after the post-NFP rise in yields and with risk appetite also not helped by a deterioration in the AIG Services Index. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. weakened with Hong Kong pressured by notable losses in the tech sector after the US recently announced new curbs on exports to China on certain tools essential for high-end chip production. Furthermore, sentiment was also dampened following the PBoC’s largest weekly net drain in eight months and after Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMIs fell into contraction territory, although losses in the mainland are somewhat cushioned following the return of participants from a week-long holiday.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC injected CNY 17bln via 7-day reverse repos for CNY 594bln net daily drain on Saturday and injected CNY 2bln through 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% on Sunday which resulted in the largest net weekly drain in eight months. PBoC also injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% on Monday, according to Reuters.
  • PBoC noted that it issued CNY 400bln via MLF during September and outstanding MLF loans fell to CNY 4.55tln at end-September vs. CNY 4.75tln at end-August, while it issued a total of CNY 969mln via SLF in September and its outstanding PSL was at CNY 2.65tln at end-September vs CNY 2.54tln at end-August, according to Reuters.
  • PBoC survey found that 53% of bankers believe Q3 monetary policy is appropriate and 45.8% believe Q3 monetary policy is loose, according to Reuters.
  • China was placed on high alert amid increases in COVID cases ahead of the Communist Party Congress, according to FT.
  • Chinese Foreign Ministry said the US is abusing trade measures to maintain technological hegemony following the recent announcement of controls targeting Chinese chip manufacturers, according to Reuters.
  • China’s Shanghai requires arrivals to take three COVID tests within three days, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses have kicked the week off on the backfoot as the negativity from last Friday has continued into this week. Sectors in Europe are predominantly softer with the exception of Retail and Telecoms. To the downside, Consumer Products, Tech and Utilities lag. Stateside, futures are softer across the board but to a lesser extent than European peers.

Top European News

  • UK Cabinet Office Minister Zahawi said it is extremely unlikely that Britain will have planned power cuts over the winter, according to Reuters.
  • UK PM Truss is prepared to listen to Conservative critics who oppose proposals to raise benefits by less than inflation, according to Telegraph sources.
  • Retailers in London’s West End warned that the capital faces a consumer growth slowdown with footfall in London’s main shopping area remaining about a fifth lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to research by New West End Company cited by FT.

FX

  • DXY extends on Friday’s gains with the index back above the 113.00 mark with a current intraday peak of 113.31, with G10s softer vs the USD to varying degrees.
  • EUR/USD tested 0.9700 to the downside from a high just over 0.9750 and retreated further from decent option expiry interest spanning 0.9800-55 (around EUR 2.8bln).
  • AUD sits as the current laggard with China’s sub-50 PMIs overnight adding to the pressure, whilst USD/CNH topped 7.1500.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0992 vs exp. 7.1215 (prev. 7.0998).
  • Turkish President Erdogan said the CBRT will keep cutting rates every month for as long as he is in power, according to Reuters.

Fixed Income

  • Bunds and US Treasuries are off best levels amidst hawkish ECB rhetoric and an upturn in overall risk sentiment that has perked up hitherto weak Italian bonds.
  • Gilts are still deeply underwater with the BoE remaining on course to end its temporary buy-back auctions at the end of the week and is switching to liquidity support via expanded collateral repos.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly softer after settling higher by over USD 4.00/bbl and USD 3.50/bbl respectively on Friday.
  • French petrol station woes reportedly deepened as strikes continued and the French Energy Ministry stated that 29.7% of service stations were experiencing supply difficulties with at least one fuel product as of 3pm on Sunday vs 21% of service stations on Saturday. Furthermore, TotalEnergies (TTE FP) called on the responsibility of workers to ensure that the country is well supplied with fuel and proposed to bring forward the compulsory annual negotiations to October subject to the end of blockades, according to Reuters.
  • Spot gold has been ebbing lower in tandem with strength in the DXY, with the yellow metal’s 21 DMA around 1,678/oz.
  • Base metals are mixed but LME copper and Chinese iron ore futures buck the trend.
  • Kumba Iron Ore declared a force majeure due to strike action; export sales will be impacted by around 120k tonnes per day.

Geopolitics: Russia/Ukraine

  • Ukrainian media reported a large explosion at the Kerch bridge in Crimea where a fuel tank was on fire at one of the sections of the bridge, while there were comments from a Ukrainian presidential adviser who called the bridge explosion ‘the beginning’ and said ‘everything illegal must be destroyed’ but did not directly claim responsibility, according to Reuters.
  • Russian President Putin described the Crimea bridge explosion as an act of terrorism which Ukraine is responsible for and he ordered tighter security for the Crimea bridge, as well as the infrastructure supplying electricity and natural gas to Crimea, according to Reuters and Interfax.
  • Russian investigative committee head said the blast on the Crimea bridge was prepared by Ukrainian special services, according to Reuters. It was also reported that Russian government spokesperson Peskov said it is wrong to consider the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge as a reason for the possible use of nuclear weapons, according to Ria Novosti.
  • White House national security spokesman Kirby said US President Biden’s “Armageddon” warning was not based on any new intelligence and reflects the very high stakes that are currently in play. Kirby also stated that Russian President Putin started the war and could end it simply by moving troops out of Ukraine, while he added the US will continue offering security assistance to Ukraine, according to The Guardian and Reuters.
  • Explosions were reported across several Ukrainian cities on Monday morning including Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro and Ternopil. Explosions were also reported near Ukrainian President Zelensky’s office in Kiev, according to Al Arabiya citing Russian press.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky says Russia used Iranian drones in Monday’s attacks on Ukraine, according to AFP.
  • Belarus and Russia to form a joint regional grouping of troops, according to Belta citing Belarussian President Lukashenko.

Geopolitics: China/Taiwan

  • Taiwan President Tsai said they must stand up for democracy and prepare prudently and sufficiently to respond to any possible contingency, while she added that they are sending a message to the international community that Taiwan will take responsibility for its self-defence. Tsai also stated that they want to make clear that armed confrontation is absolutely not an option for both sides and they look forward to the gradual resumption of the healthy and orderly cross-strait people-to-people exchanges, thereby easing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, according to Reuters.
  • China’s Foreign Ministry, responding to Taiwan’s President’s national day speech, says Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory and China will never leave any space for separatists or independence.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing Scheduled

Central Bank speakers

  • 09:00: Fed’s Evans Speaks at NABE Conference in Chicago
  • 13:00: Fed’s Brainard Speaks at NABE Conference in Chicago

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For those remembering my pre-match nerves from Friday, I won my 36 hole matchplay final yesterday and was absolutely over the moon. There is a big cup and my name goes on the honours board for hopefully a few generations. The first name on the board won this cup in 1910! In the morning round I had 6 birdies, including 4 in a row. I’d never done either of those things before in probably somewhere around a thousand rounds since I started playing at about 11 years old. My whole body aches this morning though and my sciatica has flared up a little. However it was all worth it. Sorry, boast over now but outside of work this is all I have been thinking and stressing about for the last few weeks! I can now return to exclusively stress about which way markets are going.

After another volatile week, it’s a quieter week for data with one ginormous exception. Yes all roads to and from will all center around US CPI on Thursday. Over the last few months Fed expectations have generally risen with this number and markets have consistently sold off. However there have been a few strong counter-trend rallies on either the perception of a coming Fed pivot or on hopes of being near peak inflation. All have so far been ultimately reversed but the potential for Thursday to dominate the next few weeks of trading is high. Before we delve into some of the details, US PPI and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), and the UoM inflation expectations and US retail sales (Friday) are the other key events Stateside. It’s Columbus Day in the US today with bond markets shut but equities open. It should be quiet but Fed VC Brainard is speaking later today to keep us on our toes. Finally in the US, results from key banks will kick off the earnings season later in the week before the deluge over the subsequent 2-3 weeks.

Elsewhere across the globe, we will also get inflation and trade data from China (Friday) and the PPI for Japan (Thursday). In Europe, the UK will be in the spotlight with an array of economic indicators due, including labour market data (tomorrow) and monthly GDP (Wednesday). After the dramatic aftermath of the UK mini-budget, there will also be some focus on Italy’s draft budget that is supposed to be submitted to the EC by Saturday. Clearly any signs of it being too expansionary could be a red rag to markets increasingly concerned about debt sustainability in pockets of the DM world with yields this high.

A quick early preview of the US CPI number now. Our economists highlight that with gas prices down another near 7% from August to September, energy will again drag on the headline CPI print (+0.28% forecast vs. +0.12% previously). However, core CPI (+0.44% vs. +0.57%) will draw the most focus especially given last month’s upside surprise. Assuming their forecasts are correct, year-over-year headline CPI should continue to decline, falling two-tenths to 8.1%, while core should tick up two-tenth to peak at 6.5%. This is in line with consensus. Whether one number should be the basis for huge swings in markets, it seems inevitable that a notable miss on core on either side could bring about big moves in trading over the coming weeks so stand by.

As mentioned at the top, US Q3 earnings season will kick off with results from major US banks on Friday, including JPMorgan, Citi and Morgan Stanley. Consumer-focused companies like PepsiCo (Thursday), Domino’s Pizza and Delta (both Friday) will also be in focus. TSMC reports on Thursday amid concerns of oversupply in some pockets of the semiconductor industry. The full day by day week ahead is at the end as usual.

Over the weekend, the war in Ukraine saw another landmark event after the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea was partially destroyed by an explosion, disrupting the most crucial supply line for Russian troops fighting in southern Ukraine. In a video address, President Putin on Sunday accused Ukrainian special services of being behind the attack on the bridge, calling it a “terrorist attack”. Meanwhile, President Putin has tightened security for the bridge and for energy infrastructure between Russia and Crimea and will Chair a meeting with his national security council today. We will have to carefully watch Putin’s and Russia’s response in a conflict where the risks of a major escalation are increasing.

Overnight in Asia equity markets are slipping and further extending a global equity sell-off in thin trading this morning. The Hang Seng (-2.44%) is leading losses with the CSI (-1.02%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.34%) also trading in negative territory on their return after the Golden Week holiday. Chinese semiconductor equities slumped after the US announced fresh export controls on semiconductors to Chinese companies, limiting the nation’s ability to buy and manufacture high-end chips used in AI and supercomputing. In addition, the Caixin Chinese services PMI for September contracted for the first time in four months, falling to 49.3 from 55.0 in August as Covid-19 containment measures disrupted supply and demand while dimming business confidence. Elsewhere, markets in Japan and South Korea are closed for holiday.

In overnight trading, the risk-off mood has persisted in US equities with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.48%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.51%) both moving lower after a tumultuous week. European futures are also down.

Looking back at last week, it was a tale of two halves. The first half of the week saw yet another attempt at the Fed (and other CB) pivot narrative and a huge risk on alongside an initial sharp rates rally. By the second half of the week global central bank officials said ‘not so fast’, holding their line and leading to a drift tighter in financial conditions via higher yields and lower equities. The back and forth led to another volatile week in global markets.

Diving into the specific numbers. 10yr Treasury and Bund yields increased +5.3bps (+5.8bps Friday) and +8.6bps (+10.9bps Friday), respectively, after hitting intraday levels of -27.1bps and -33.7bps for the week on Tuesday.

Major equity indices danced to the same tune. The S&P 500 finished +1.51% higher, but that marked a steep fall (-2.80% on Friday alone) from its intraweek heights of +6.15% on the week when it appeared the Fed policy pivot was in full play. Fed speakers in the back half of the week had plenty to say about that, with New York Fed President invoking the current SEP median showing policy rates at 4.6% by the end of next year as a reasonable base case, with some of the more typically dovish members of the Committee considering even higher policy rates. Likewise, the STOXX 600 finished the week +0.98% (-1.18% Friday), having pulled back -2.82% from its intraday week peak.

10yr gilts exhibited a similar pattern, after the government retreated from the higher income tax cuts, with 10yr gilts +14.5bps higher on the week (+6.9bps Friday), having been -35.5bps lower as of Tuesday. 30yr gilts marched steadily higher over the week despite the broader pattern in sovereign yields, as BoE purchases of the sector slowed dramatically, with yields climbing +56.8bps (+8.5bps Friday) to 4.39%. Still below the dizzying heights reached following the initial release of the fiscal plan but otherwise the highest since 2011.

In data Friday, nonfarm payrolls increased +263k in the US in September, close to +255k consensus, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% with a decline in labour force participation to 62.3% from 62.4%. The move tighter along with the contraction in supply fed the building end of week narrative against any Fed policy pivot. Underscoring the point, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow index rose to 2.89% to end the week. Not the sort of numbers that will get the Fed to ease anytime soon.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

European bourses kicked the week off on the backfoot but have since trimmed losses – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 06:45 AM

  • European bourses kicked the week off on the backfoot but have since trimmed losses; US equity futures are mostly softer but off lows.
  • DXY extends on Friday’s gains with the index back above the 113.00 mark, AUD lags and USD/CNH topped 7.1500.
  • Bunds and US Treasuries are off best levels amidst hawkish ECB rhetoric and an upturn in overall risk sentiment whilst Gilts are still deeply underwater.
  • Explosions were reported across several Ukrainian cities on Monday morning including Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro and Ternopil.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from Fed’s Evans & Brainard, ECB’s Lane, US Columbus Day with CME floor trade closed but will be a regular session elsewhere.

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

10th October 2022

LOOKING AHEAD

  • Speeches from Fed’s Evans & Brainard, ECB’s Lane, US Columbus Day with CME floor trade closed but will be a regular session elsewhere.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses have kicked the week off on the backfoot as the negativity from last Friday has continued into this week.
  • Sectors in Europe are predominantly softer with the exception of Retail and Telecoms. To the downside, Consumer Products, Tech and Utilities lag.
  • Stateside, futures are softer across the board but to a lesser extent than European peers.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY extends on Friday’s gains with the index back above the 113.00 mark with a current intraday peak of 113.31, with G10s softer vs the USD to varying degrees.
  • EUR/USD tested 0.9700 to the downside from a high just over 0.9750 and retreated further from decent option expiry interest spanning 0.9800-55 (around EUR 2.8bln).
  • AUD sits as the current laggard with China’s sub-50 PMIs overnight adding to the pressure, whilst USD/CNH topped 7.1500.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0992 vs exp. 7.1215 (prev. 7.0998).
  • Turkish President Erdogan said the CBRT will keep cutting rates every month for as long as he is in power, according to Reuters.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 0.9800-10 (1.72BN), 0.9845-55 (1.12BN), 0.9875 (556M), 0.9950 (709M),
  • Click here for more detail

FIXED INCOME

  • Bunds and US Treasuries are off best levels amidst hawkish ECB rhetoric and an upturn in overall risk sentiment that has perked up hitherto weak Italian bonds.
  • Gilts are still deeply underwater with the BoE remaining on course to end its temporary buy-back auctions at the end of the week and is switching to liquidity support via expanded collateral repos.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly softer after settling higher by over USD 4.00/bbl and USD 3.50/bbl respectively on Friday.
  • French petrol station woes reportedly deepened as strikes continued and the French Energy Ministry stated that 29.7% of service stations were experiencing supply difficulties with at least one fuel product as of 3pm on Sunday vs 21% of service stations on Saturday. Furthermore, TotalEnergies (TTE FP) called on the responsibility of workers to ensure that the country is well supplied with fuel and proposed to bring forward the compulsory annual negotiations to October subject to the end of blockades, according to Reuters.
  • Spot gold has been ebbing lower in tandem with strength in the DXY, with the yellow metal’s 21 DMA around 1,678/oz.
  • Base metals are mixed but LME copper and Chinese iron ore futures buck the trend.
  • Kumba Iron Ore declared a force majeure due to strike action; export sales will be impacted by around 120k tonnes per day.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • UK Cabinet Office Minister Zahawi said it is extremely unlikely that Britain will have planned power cuts over the winter, according to Reuters.
  • UK PM Truss is prepared to listen to Conservative critics who oppose proposals to raise benefits by less than inflation, according to Telegraph sources.
  • Retailers in London’s West End warned that the capital faces a consumer growth slowdown with footfall in London’s main shopping area remaining about a fifth lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to research by New West End Company cited by FT.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • BoE Gilt market notice: As previously announced, the Bank plans to end these operations and cease all bond purchases on Friday 14 October.
  • BoE is launching a temporary expanded collateral repo facility; enables banks ease liquidity pressure facing their client LDI (Liability-driven investment) funds via liquidity insurance operations.
  • ECB’s Villeroy says the ECB is engaged in lowering inflation to 2% in 2-3 years from now; ECB is far from reaching its 2% inflation target.
  • ECB’s Knot says markets appear to underestimate the upward risks in the inflation outlook. ECB will need to take significant interest steps again this month but too early to say how large the steps will need to be. Knot said it will be at least two meetings before quantitative tightening.
  • ECB’s Centeno says normalisation of monetary policy is absolutely needed and desired.
  • ECB and PBoC extend bilateral EUR-CNY FX swap arrangement; ECB says has a max size of EUR 45bln and CNY 350bln.
  • UK to publish medium-term fiscal plan OBR forecast on October 31st, according to the Treasury Select Committee head.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • EU is urging the US to rethink its ‘discriminatory’ provisions in the new flagship green legislation amid concerns in Europe that the rules could prompt European manufacturers to move production to the US, according to FT.
  • Tesla (TSLA) sold a record number of China-made vehicles in September with 83,135 units in wholesale, according to the CPCA cited by Reuters.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is on a softer footing and remains under the USD 19,500 mark whilst Ethereum holds onto 1,300 status.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Ukrainian media reported a large explosion at the Kerch bridge in Crimea where a fuel tank was on fire at one of the sections of the bridge, while there were comments from a Ukrainian presidential adviser who called the bridge explosion ‘the beginning’ and said ‘everything illegal must be destroyed’ but did not directly claim responsibility, according to Reuters.
  • Russian President Putin described the Crimea bridge explosion as an act of terrorism which Ukraine is responsible for and he ordered tighter security for the Crimea bridge, as well as the infrastructure supplying electricity and natural gas to Crimea, according to Reuters and Interfax.
  • Russian investigative committee head said the blast on the Crimea bridge was prepared by Ukrainian special services, according to Reuters. It was also reported that Russian government spokesperson Peskov said it is wrong to consider the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge as a reason for the possible use of nuclear weapons, according to Ria Novosti.
  • White House national security spokesman Kirby said US President Biden’s “Armageddon” warning was not based on any new intelligence and reflects the very high stakes that are currently in play. Kirby also stated that Russian President Putin started the war and could end it simply by moving troops out of Ukraine, while he added the US will continue offering security assistance to Ukraine, according to The Guardian and Reuters.
  • Explosions were reported across several Ukrainian cities on Monday morning including Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro and Ternopil. Explosions were also reported near Ukrainian President Zelensky’s office in Kiev, according to Al Arabiya citing Russian press.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky says Russia used Iranian drones in Monday’s attacks on Ukraine, according to AFP.
  • Belarus and Russia to form a joint regional grouping of troops, according to Belta citing Belarussian President Lukashenko.

CHINA-TAIWAN

  • Taiwan President Tsai said they must stand up for democracy and prepare prudently and sufficiently to respond to any possible contingency, while she added that they are sending a message to the international community that Taiwan will take responsibility for its self-defence. Tsai also stated that they want to make clear that armed confrontation is absolutely not an option for both sides and they look forward to the gradual resumption of the healthy and orderly cross-strait people-to-people exchanges, thereby easing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, according to Reuters.
  • China’s Foreign Ministry, responding to Taiwan’s President’s national day speech, says Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory and China will never leave any space for separatists or independence.

OTHER

  • North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles from the Munchon area over the weekend which fell outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, while South Korea stated that the latest missile launches are a serious provocation that harms peace, according to Yonhap and Reuters.
  • North Korea conducted tactical nuclear operational training during September 25th – October 9th and leader Kim oversaw tactical nuclear military training, while Kim said they will continue to strengthen nuclear operations going forward, according to Yonhap and KCNA.
  • Japan and the US conducted a joint military exercise involving the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, according to Japan’s Defence Ministry cited by Reuters.
  • China Ministry of Commerce says it firmly opposes US chip export controls; urges US to stop its wrongdoings immediately.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks were negative in a holiday-thinned start to the week with market closures in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, while the region digested a contraction in Chinese Caixin PMI data and the recent stronger-than-expected US jobs data which paves the way for the Fed to continue with its hawkish normalisation.
  • ASX 200 was led lower by gold miners and tech stocks after the post-NFP rise in yields and with risk appetite also not helped by a deterioration in the AIG Services Index.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. weakened with Hong Kong pressured by notable losses in the tech sector after the US recently announced new curbs on exports to China on certain tools essential for high-end chip production. Furthermore, sentiment was also dampened following the PBoC’s largest weekly net drain in eight months and after Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMIs fell into contraction territory, although losses in the mainland are somewhat cushioned following the return of participants from a week-long holiday.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC injected CNY 17bln via 7-day reverse repos for CNY 594bln net daily drain on Saturday and injected CNY 2bln through 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% on Sunday which resulted in the largest net weekly drain in eight months. PBoC also injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% on Monday, according to Reuters.
  • PBoC noted that it issued CNY 400bln via MLF during September and outstanding MLF loans fell to CNY 4.55tln at end-September vs. CNY 4.75tln at end-August, while it issued a total of CNY 969mln via SLF in September and its outstanding PSL was at CNY 2.65tln at end-September vs CNY 2.54tln at end-August, according to Reuters.
  • PBoC survey found that 53% of bankers believe Q3 monetary policy is appropriate and 45.8% believe Q3 monetary policy is loose, according to Reuters.
  • China was placed on high alert amid increases in COVID cases ahead of the Communist Party Congress, according to FT.
  • Chinese Foreign Ministry said the US is abusing trade measures to maintain technological hegemony following the recent announcement of controls targeting Chinese chip manufacturers, according to Reuters.
  • China’s Shanghai requires arrivals to take three COVID tests within three days, according to Bloomberg.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Sep) 49.3 (Prev. 55.0)
  • Chinese Caixin Composite PMI (Sep) 48.5 (Prev. 53.0)
  • Australian AIG Services Index (Sep) 48.0 (Prev. 53.3)

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 50.24 PTS OR 1.66%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 523.39 OR 2.95%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 195.19PTS OR 0.71%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.49%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.1474 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1514//    /Oil UP TO 91,87 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 97.25    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  MOSTLY RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

GERMANY

Germany must slash its natural gas consumption to avoid a winter emergency

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Germany Needs To Slash Natural Gas Consumption To Avoid A Winter Emergency

SATURDAY, OCT 08, 2022 – 08:35 AM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Germany may be unable to avoid a gas emergency this winter if all consumers don’t significantly cut consumption in Europe’s biggest economy, according to Klaus Müller, the president of the Federal Network Agency, Bundesnetzagentur.

“The situation may become very serious if we do not significantly reduce our gas consumption,” Müller told Reuters on Thursday, adding that households, industry, and businesses need to cut consumption by at least 20%.

According to the regulator, German households and small businesses used nearly 10% more gas than the four-year average for that week.

The agency, the regulator to impose rationing in case of severe shortages, published on Thursday its weekly report on gas supply and demand in Germany. The data showed that gas consumption rose in the latest reporting week by 10% to 618-gigawatt hours per week (GWh/week) from 483 GWh/week in the previous week, and was above the average for the same week between 2018 and 2021.

The agency once again called on all consumers to conserve gas, as it “emphasizes the importance” of savings.

This week’s appeal for gas conservation comes after a similar appeal last week when the agency said that Germany’s gas consumption rose too much – to levels higher than in previous years, and without considerable gas conservation, Europe’s biggest economy will find it challenging to avoid gas shortages this winter.

“Without significant savings, also in the private sector, it will be difficult to avoid a gas shortage in the winter,” the agency’s president Klaus Müller said last week.  

Gas storage sites are more than 92% full, the regulator said today, but warned that gas price fluctuations are huge. Despite the recent drop in gas prices, businesses and households “will have to continue to prepare for very high gas prices,” the agency added.

If the coming winter is colder than usual, Germany could see severe nationwide gas shortages, which it will not be able to predict more than two weeks in advance, Müller said in September.

“I can’t give an exact forecast of where the risk of a shortage is the greatest,” Müller told German business daily Handelsblatt in mid-September.

“If we get a very cold winter, we have a problem.”

END

GERMANY

Another case of sabotage:  Northern German rail network disrupted after a sabotage to its communication cables

(zerohedge)

Northern Germany Rail Network Disrupted After “Sabotage” To Communication Cables

SATURDAY, OCT 08, 2022 – 09:10 AM

For those waking up expecting a calm and quiet morning — well — that’s not the case. There’s news that a major train network in northern Germany came to a screeching halt due to “sabotage,” Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) tweeted. 

“Sabotage to cables which were vital for train traffic, meant Deutsche Bahn had to stop trains running in the north this morning for nearly three hours,” state-owned rail operator Deutsche Bahn said. 

Dpa said all “long-distance trains came to a total standstill in northern Germany at the start of the weekend.” The train operator first blamed a “technical malfunction” but hours later said malicious activity brought down the rail network, prompting security authorities to get involved. 

Service was disrupted through the state of Lower Saxony and the city-states of Bremen and Hamburg. Also, international rail lines between Denmark and the Netherlands. 

Der Spiegel magazine was more specific about the “sabotage” and said communication network cables for Deutsche Bahn were severed in two places. 

This isn’t the first time “sabotage” has been in the news. The disruption comes after EU leaders say acts of “sabotage” blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines that run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. 

NATO and EU stressed that member countries need to secure critical infrastructure against potential attacks. 

end

FRANCE

One third of all French gas stations are experiencing supply shortages, after the ongoing strike by workers

(zerohedge)

With A Third Of French Gas Stations Experiencing “Supply Shortages”, Energy Giant Seeks Urgent Wage Talks

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Just days after we reported that France had tapped its strategic fuel reserves to resupply a growing number of gas stations that had run dry due to a nearly two-week long strike of refinery workers, with Government spokesman Olivier Veran urging consumers not to panic-buy only to achieve the opposite results, on Sunday the French Energy ministry announced that almost a third of French petrol (that’s gasoline for US readers) stations were experiencing “supply difficulties” with at least one fuel product (up from 21% on Saturday), as French energy giant TotalEnergies offered to bring forward wage talks, in response to union demands, as it sought to end the strike that has pushed French to the bring of a historic energy crisis.

“Provided the blockades will end and all labor representatives agree, the company proposes to advance to October the start of mandatory annual wage talks,” it said in a statement. The talks were initially scheduled to start in mid-November.

In response, Union representatives earlier told Reuters the strikes staged by the CGT, historically one of France’s more militant unions, would continue even as unions said they are willing to begin negotiations next week.

They have disrupted operations at two ExxonMobil sites as well as at two TotalEnergies sites, sending French gasoline inventories sliding. Over roughly two weeks of industrial action, France’s domestic fuel output has fallen by more than 60%, straining nerves across the country, as waiting lines grow and supplies have run dry.

France’s Minister of Transport Clement Beaune said that there was no problem with supply in France on Saturday. He said shortages are a “localised phenomena, related to social movements”, while urging companies and trade unions to act with “responsibility”.

On Friday, as refinery strikes continued for a tenth day, the country’s energy minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher said that “over 80% of the petrol stations are functioning as normal”,  adding there were “significant supply tensions” in some regions, particularly along the border with Belgium where fuel currently costs more. Since then that 80% has dropped to 70%.

“The Government is doing its utmost to restore the situation to normal as soon as possible”, Pannier-Runacher said in a statement on Saturday. “A solution to this conflict must be found as soon as possible”, he added.

Meanwhile, long queues formed at inner-city and suburban service stations in and around the capital as early as Wednesday, with lines stretching back to the main A1 motorway heading northwards out of the city, according to a Reuters reporter.

One of those waiting in line at a petrol station near Paris was Terry Caboste, a metal worker, told Euronews. “I woke up at 4:00 a.m. to get gas and now it’s going to be about 4 hours [that I have waited] if there’s gas at 8 am,” he said.

Gilles Albou, a pensioner waiting in the same line, described his frustration at the situation: “I don’t understand, I don’t understand. It’s difficult for me to understand why we end up in such situations?”

In hopes that a labor union resolution would be reached soon, France released strategic reserves and raised imports, Energy Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher said in a statement, adding these should mean the supply situation improves on Monday.

Speaking to BFM TV, she welcomed TotalEnergie’s offer and said she expected a move from ExxonMobil’s Esso France unit “so that the French people are not taken hostage by this social dispute and can go to work with confidence”.

Esso France, ExxonMobil’s local unit, said it would hold a new round of wage talks with unions on Monday “with the aim of enabling the group’s refineries to resume operations as soon as possible.”

Wage talks have been underway for weeks at ExxonMobil, while the CGT at TotalEnergies said it has been trying to get the management to the negotiation table earlier than formal talks scheduled next month.

Workers at TotalEnergies are seeking a 10% pay rise starting this year after a surge in energy prices led to huge profits that allowed the company to pay out an estimated eight billion euros in dividends and an additional special dividend to investors. The company’s CEO last week said “the time has come to reward” workers, but so far the company had refused to start negotiations.

A CGT representative said the union would not make any official comment on TotalEnergie’s offer before internal discussions and informing workers.

The CFDT union, France’s largest, which chose not to call for strikes despite demanding a similar pay rise, said in a statement it was prepared to start wage talks in October. Aurore Berge, the head of the governing Renaissance group in the lower house of parliament, said workers had a legitimate right to seek a share in exceptional profits that were made with their help, but not to hurt ordinary people.

“It is not acceptable that workers stage preemptive walkouts which will hit whom? The French people who have no other choice (but to use their car),” she told BFM TV in an interview on Sunday.

end

ENGLAND

Bank of England pivoting? not so fast.  Bank of England rate hikes will continue despite the devastation that it will cause.  They state that inflation must be stopped

(zerohedge)

No Pivot? BOE Says Rate Hikes Will Continue – Inflation Must Be Stopped

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 05:45 AM

In a market environment where the only hope left is a central bank pivot away from rate hikes and back to QE, any slight detour by any central bank in the west is now put under a microscope with excitement as if stocks are about to be saved.  The Bank of England’s minimal intervention in long term gilt purchases to stave off a collapse in the UK pension system recently had investors buzzing with dreams that this was the beginning of a pivot by other central banks back to stimulus.  This is not the case.

As it turns out, the two week long BOE intervention is nothing more than a drop in the ocean of stimulus that would be needed to reverse course on the steady decline of stocks, and central bank officials warn that this is not the end.  Nowhere close.

BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden recently indicated that the bank intends to charge forward on interest rate hikes, suggesting that this is the only way to tame the ongoing inflation crisis.

Price inflation along with a slowdown in GDP is culminating in stagflationary conditions in many countries, including the UK.  This is a direct result of years of central bank intervention, pumping out trillions in QE just to avoid a deflationary event in markets and keep the “too big to fail” corporations alive. But there are always consequences for every policy action.

Inflation/stagflation gives central banks license to pursue aggressive interest rate increases and general fiscal tightening, and they are taking full advantage of the opportunity.  Multiple banks including the Federal Reserve have indicated that more hikes are on the way, with rates hovering dangerously close to levels that would make bond purchases untenable and corporate stock buybacks unlikely.  

With investors heavily addicted to QE, the assumption for the past decade has been that stocks cannot lose.  Today’s retail buyers cannot fathom a scenario in which central banks do not step in the moment equities lose 10% or more.  This has created incredible weakness in the investment community and fostered a lack of fortitude.  It has also contributed to an environment where price discovery is an anomaly and investing based on company research is considered “archaic.”  The only strategy in markets that modern investors know is “Buy the f’ing dip!”

Dave Ramsden puts a heavy damper on this cultism, essentially betraying the “new normal” model and leaving markets scrambling to understand what is happening.  He notes:

“Unlike earlier inflationary episodes, where we saw more persistence in inflation caused by ineffective policy and policy frameworks, this time we have a monetary policy framework which empowers us to take action…”

“However difficult the consequences might be for the economy, the MPC must stay the course and set monetary policy to return inflation to achieve the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, consistent with the remit given to us.”

The BOE has a long way to go before getting to an inflation target of 2%, but what Ramsden does not admit to is the fact that rate hike tactics have failed so far to achieve much of anything.  In fact, official inflation seems to be bouncing back after an initial short drop. This means that far more pain in credit markets and stocks will have to be felt before there is a dramatic decline in prices.  

Furthermore, jobs markets, though built on a foundation of sand, are still showing resilience to rising credit costs.  Numerous companies are slated to begin layoffs this winter, but the job losses would have to be enormous in order to provide an excuse for central banks to pivot in any way back to QE.

In other words, the process of destabilization is far from over.  Inflation is far from over and QT is far from over.  The BOE’s admissions of further tightening despite a near fatal blow to bonds and pensions should be taken very seriously.            

END

BoE’s New Support Plan Fails As UK Gilt Yields Explode Higher

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 10:35 AM

(courtesy zerohedge)

Update (1030ET): Despite The BoE promises to do almost ‘whatever it takes’, long-dated gilt prices are collapsing today. 30Y gilt yields are up a stunning 34bps now, soaring towards crisis highs…

What next for BoE?

The pain in the UK is spreading to US yields (remember US bond market holiday today but futures trading)…

10Y UST yields are implied around 6bps higher for now.

*  *  *

Over the weekend, Band of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden indicated that the bank intends to charge forward on interest rate hikes, suggesting that this is the only way to tame the ongoing inflation crisis.

“However difficult the consequences might be for the economy, the MPC must stay the course and set monetary policy to return inflation to achieve the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, consistent with the remit given to us.”

Just two days after that statement, BoE on Monday announced further measures to ensure financial stability in the U.K., building on its intervention in the long-dated bond market.

Specifically, The BOE said it will:

  1. Double the size of its auctions to purchase long-dated UK government bonds to £10 billion a day until Oct. 14, when the BOE plans to close that program as previously announced
  2. Launch a Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility, or TECRF, that will run beyond the end of this week until Nov. 10. Its purpose is to enable banks to ease pressures in LDI funds through liquidity insurance operations.
  3. Temporary expansion of collateral it accepts under its existing Sterling Monetary Framework to include corporate bonds.

Additionally, regular repo-related operations also remain available to help.

So far, investors haven’t taken up as much of the support as the BOE has offered. In the eight auctions to date, the BOE bought just £4.6 billion of bonds, about 12% of the £40 billion capacity of the program.

However, analysts have warned that the intervention fails to adequately address the underlying issue.

Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING, said:

“The suspicion is that risk reduction by pension funds has been too limited so far.

“The question is do they have enough cash to meet new collateral requirements if the gilt market sells off again, as the gilt purchases by the Bank of England end this week.

“I think the fear is that the answer’s no and that it will trigger the same snowball effect that we had two weeks ago.”

Bob Parker, advisor at CBP Quilvest, told CNBC Monday that the new measures would likely assuage market concerns in the short term, but “a number of major problems” remain going into 2023, the first of which is that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates further.

He anticipates that gilt yields will rise further, with the 10-year already up more than 100 basis points over the last month.

“The reality is we still have negative real yields in excess of 5% with inflation trending at least for the next few months around 10%, and as a result … institutional demand and retail demand for gilts, I think, is going to remain very muted,” Parker said.

RBC Capital Markets is skeptical that the announcement will meaningfully change the market dynamics.

The question is whether these new measures will really change the market function substantially. 

First, the BoE did not get anywhere close to buying the maximum amounts in the previous operations anyway and thus increasing the maximum potential purchases would not necessarily change the fate of the market if actual purchases remain low. 

Secondly, as regards the repo operations, the question is whether there has been a significant liquidity demand from banks in the first place and furthermore, it appears that the repos collateralized with corporate bonds appear quite expensive with rather large hair-cuts applied and thus it remains debatable whether they will be used much in the first place

The BoE has a problem however, as this desperate move has prompted more selling in the 30Y gilt (yields up 22bps today)…

…heading back towards crisis levels fast…

“It is extraordinary,” said Joshua Raymond, director at financial brokerage XTB. “Market interventions of this type by the central bank are not normal.”

Not normal indeed!

end

“It’s Extraordinary” – BoE Unveils New Support For Broken Bond Market

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 09:00 AM

Over the weekend, Band of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden indicated that the bank intends to charge forward on interest rate hikes, suggesting that this is the only way to tame the ongoing inflation crisis.

“However difficult the consequences might be for the economy, the MPC must stay the course and set monetary policy to return inflation to achieve the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, consistent with the remit given to us.”

Just two days after that statement, BoE on Monday announced further measures to ensure financial stability in the U.K., building on its intervention in the long-dated bond market.

Specifically, The BOE said it will:

  1. Double the size of its auctions to purchase long-dated UK government bonds to £10 billion a day until Oct. 14, when the BOE plans to close that program as previously announced
  2. Launch a Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility, or TECRF, that will run beyond the end of this week until Nov. 10. Its purpose is to enable banks to ease pressures in LDI funds through liquidity insurance operations.
  3. Temporary expansion of collateral it accepts under its existing Sterling Monetary Framework to include corporate bonds.

Additionally, regular repo-related operations also remain available to help.

So far, investors haven’t taken up as much of the support as the BOE has offered. In the eight auctions to date, the BOE bought just £4.6 billion of bonds, about 12% of the £40 billion capacity of the program.

However, analysts have warned that the intervention fails to adequately address the underlying issue.

Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING, said:

“The suspicion is that risk reduction by pension funds has been too limited so far.

“The question is do they have enough cash to meet new collateral requirements if the gilt market sells off again, as the gilt purchases by the Bank of England end this week.

“I think the fear is that the answer’s no and that it will trigger the same snowball effect that we had two weeks ago.”

Bob Parker, advisor at CBP Quilvest, told CNBC Monday that the new measures would likely assuage market concerns in the short term, but “a number of major problems” remain going into 2023, the first of which is that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates further.

He anticipates that gilt yields will rise further, with the 10-year already up more than 100 basis points over the last month.

“The reality is we still have negative real yields in excess of 5% with inflation trending at least for the next few months around 10%, and as a result … institutional demand and retail demand for gilts, I think, is going to remain very muted,” Parker said.

RBC Capital Markets is skeptical that the announcement will meaningfully change the market dynamics.

The question is whether these new measures will really change the market function substantially. First, the BoE did not get anywhere close to buying the maximum amounts in the previous operations anyway and thus increasing the maximum potential purchases would not necessarily change the fate of the market if actual purchases remain low. Secondly, as regards the repo operations, the question is whether there has been a significant liquidity demand from banks in the first place and furthermore, it appears that the repos collateralized with corporate bonds appear quite expensive with rather large hair-cuts applied and thus it remains debatable whether they will be used much in the first place

The BoE has a problem however, as this desperate move has prompted more selling in the 30Y gilt (yields up 22bps today)…

…heading back towards crisis levels fast…

“It is extraordinary,” said Joshua Raymond, director at financial brokerage XTB. “Market interventions of this type by the central bank are not normal.”

Not normal indeed!

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/SATURDAY

This should escalate things!

(zerohedge)

Large Explosion Destroys Part Of Key Bridge Linking Russia To Crimea; Zelensky: This Is “The Beginning”

SATURDAY, OCT 08, 2022 – 08:01 AM

Russian authorities said that an explosion involving a truck on Saturday caused a fire and destroyed a section of a bridge linking Russia and Crimea. The bridge is regarded as a key supply route for Russian troops in southern Ukraine.

The Crimean Bridge – also called Kerch Strait Bridge or Kerch Bridge – is a structure 19 kilometers (12 miles) in length that passes across the Kerch Strait and links southern Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. The Kerch Strait links the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

The Epoch Times’ Mimi Nguyen reports that a truck exploded on the bridge around 6 a.m. local time. Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee announced that the explosion caused a fire on the parallel rail section, where seven railway cars carrying fuel caught fire. The blast also caused a “partial collapse of two sections of the bridge.”

A spokesperson from the Russian Highways State Company (Avtodor) told the TASS news agency that the movement of vehicles across the Crimean Bridge has been temporarily suspended, adding at the time that “personnel of the Russian emergencies ministry and the road service are working on the site to contain the blaze.” The fire has since been extinguished.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was informed about the explosion and he ordered the creation of a government panel to deal with the emergency.

While the bridge undergoes repair, a ferry service will be provided later on Saturday. Crimea’s Head Sergey Aksyonov said on Telegram, per TASS“A ferry service is ready to be launched, it will start operating later today. We will announce a timetable later.”

The Crimean Peninsula is key to sustaining Russia’s military operations in the south. If the bridge is made inoperable, it would make it significantly more challenging to ferry supplies to the peninsula. While Russia seized the areas north of Crimea early during the invasion and built a land corridor to it along the Sea of Azov, Ukraine is pressing a counteroffensive to reclaim them.

The explosion on the Crimean Bridge took place hours after multiple explosions early Saturday hit the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, which triggered a series of secondary explosions. The city’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said that the series of explosions were due to missile strikes aimed at the center of the city, which caused fires at one of Kharkiv’s medical institutions, as well as a nonresidential building. No reports of casualties were noted.

Bridge Explosion Is the ‘Beginning’: Ukraine Official

While no one has yet to explicitly claim public responsibility for the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s aide, Mikhail Podoliak, posted on Twitter saying the explosion is “the beginning.”

“Crimea, the bridge, the beginning. Everything illegal must be destroyed, everything stolen must be returned to Ukraine, everything occupied by Russia must be expelled,” he wrote in English.

Podoliak previously in August threatened the bridge, telling The Guardian that the bridge is “an illegal construction and the main gateway to supply the Russian army in Crimea” and that “such objects should be destroyed.”

Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials have also previously stated that Ukraine will use force to retake Crimea.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 after a vast majority of people in Crimea had voted in a referendum in March 2014 to reunite with Russia and secede from Ukraine. The vote took place after anti-Russia, pro-E.U. factions overthrew then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s government, which wasn’t against Russia, in an armed coup in February 2014.

The referendum was condemned by the United States and the European Union, with the latter saying in a statement (pdf) that the poll was “illegal and illegitimate.” Both the United States and the E.U. issued sanctions in response to the vote.

The Crimean Bridge, a $3.69 billion (230 billion rubles) project, was constructed following the annexation of Crimea. Russia opened the first part of the span to car traffic in May 2018. The parallel bridge for rail traffic opened the following year. Before the bridge’s existence, the Crimean Peninsula could only be reached from Russia by sea or air.

It was Russia’s only land link to the peninsula until Russian forces later seized more Ukrainian territory on the northern end of the Sea of Azov in heavy fighting, particularly around the city of Mariupol, earlier in 2022.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Russia responds to the attack in Crimea

(zerohedge)

Russia Launches Large-Scale Strikes On Some 20 Ukrainian Cities In Response To “Terrorist” Crimea Bridge Blast

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 08:19 AM

A series of major explosions rocked Kyiv and several locations across Ukraine on Monday, following Russian President Vladimir Putin blaming Ukrainian special services for the “terrorist” blast which partially disabled the Crimean bridge that links Russia to the peninsula.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the fresh missile attacks in a statement posted to Telegram, saying that the new “missiles hitting” are part of the Kremlin trying to “wipe us off the face of the Earth,” and that: “Unfortunately, there are dead and wounded.”

At least 100 strikes were carried out, with many cruise missiles launched from Russian warships in the Black Sea. Putin in a televised announcement said he ordered attacks on military, energy, and communications targets specifically in response to the Crimea bridge attack.

“If attempts to carry out terrorist attacks continue, Russia’s response will be severe and at the level of the threats facing it. Nobody should be in any doubt,” Putin warned. 

Russia’s defense ministry also affirmed it hit “all the assigned targets” – which in some cases appear to have been civilian infrastructure in the Ukrainian capital. Regional sources are listing that over 15 significant cities were targeted and suffered severe damage, including Kiev, Rovno, Lvov, Ternopol, Ivano-Frankovsk, Khmelnitsky, Zhitomir, Kremenchug, Kropivnitsky, Krivoy-Rog, Odessa, Zaporozhie, Dnieper, Poltava, Kharkov. Additional smaller towns were hit as well.

Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the Ukrainian presidency’s office said “many cities” came under Russian attack. “Ukraine is under missile attack. There is information about strikes in many cities of our country.” He further warned the population to “stay in shelters.”

“The capital is under Russian terrorists’ attack!” Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said in describing strikes on the city center. “If there is no urgent need, it is better not to go to the city today. I am also asking the residents of the suburbs about this — do not go to the capital today.”

Importantly, there are reports the building housing the German consulate in Kyiv was rocked by a missile, according to BILD newspaper. These are the first strikes on the Ukrainian capital since June.

People seen sheltering in underground metro stations amid ongoing air raid sirens…

In an initial response EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell said he is “Deeply shocked by Russia’s attacks on civilians in Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine. Such acts have no place in 21st century,” and condemned them “in the strongest possible terms.”

However, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said this is only the beginning of the response, saying according to a state media translation:

The first episode is over. There will be others… I will express my personal position… The Ukrainian state in its current configuration with the Nazi political regime will pose a constant, direct and clear threat to Russia. Therefore, in addition to protecting our people and protecting the country’s borders, the goal of our future actions … should be a complete dismantling of the political regime of Ukraine,” Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel.

Many pundits have pointed out that Russia has been “holding back” up to this point. With the war now more than seven months in, there hasn’t been the kind of “shock and awe” attacks against major Ukrainian centers like some predicted initially.

Independent geopolitical analyst Tom Fowdy described, “I honestly don’t know what Ukraine and their supporters were expecting when they decided to attack a bridge Russia could not have made more clear was a massive, massive red line. They’re forcing Putin’s hand even when he has been massively lethargic to play it.”

Map of Monday’s strikes:

Likely reports of casualty figures will continue rising throughout the day as damage is assessed. “At least five civilian deaths were reported and 12 people were wounded in Kyiv on Monday as at least 83 missiles were fired on the country,” The Hill reports based on local sources. Ukraine’s armed forces said that air defenses succeeded in downing 43 missiles.

END

Professor Sachs:  Ukraine needs to stop bombing nuclear power plants and blaming it on the Russians

(Watson SummitNews)

Professor Sachs: “Ukraine Needs To Stop Bombing Nuclear Power Plant And Blaming It On Russia”

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 12:10 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Professor Jeffrey Sachs stated Sunday that the U.S. should be demanding that Ukraine stops shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and blaming it on Russia, otherwise the world will face a nuclear armageddon on two fronts.

Sachs, a prominent public policy analyst, made the comments on a recent podcast, noting “Our media says they don’t know who is shelling the plant. And they can’t put one and one together to say that if Russia is in control of the plant, maybe they’re not shelling their own plant. Maybe it’s Ukraine who is shelling the plant.”

The power plant in southeastern Ukraine has been under the control of the Russian military since early March, however, it has continued to be operated by Ukrainian staff.

The plant has come under sustained shelling in recent days, with the Ukrainian government blaming Russia.

“It is almost surely Ukraine shelling the power plant and we can’t bring ourselves to express a simple truth and that hurts because they continue to shell the power plant with impunity,” Sachs further declared.

“We don’t know ever with our government what is really going on because they don’t tell the truth,” he further warned, adding “That just goes with the business of government, the way that it is viewed in Washington.”

Sachs urged that “This country is a war machine,” adding “Eisenhower told us about it with the military-industrial complex speech.”

“The main job of the president of the United States is to stop the war machine from making wars. And we are now in an escalation, heading towards Armageddon, according to the president,” Sachs further stated, referring to Joe Biden’s much criticised comments last week.

“That’s not a spectator sport, that’s his job to keep us away from Armageddon,” Sachs asserted.

Sachs made headlines earlier this month when he said that in his opinion the U.S. was behind the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines:

END

Russia may repair the Nordstream gas pipeline.  One line of Gasprom 2 has not been hit and may be used in the future

Geiger/OilPrice.com

Russia Not Ruling Out Repair Of Nordstream Gas Pipelines

SATURDAY, OCT 08, 2022 – 10:55 AM

By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Russia is not ruling out the possibility of repairing the Nordstream gas pipelines, the Russian Embassy in Denmark said in a statement on its website on Friday.

The Russian embassy criticized the efforts to investigate the pipelines following four explosions that took them offline—some say indefinitely—because the Russian side was excluded from the investigations.

The Danish side’s reluctance to involve Russia’s representatives in the ongoing investigation undermines its credibility. Limiting the circle of participating states, which are either already members of NATO, or on the way to this alliance, turns the study into politically preconceived,” the statement read, adding that it would investigate the possibility of conducting an investigation on the site of the explosions itself.

“The Russian side does not rule out the possibility of repairing gas pipelines, but a decision on this can be made after examining the site and assessing the extent of damage to gas pipelines.”

Russia also said it was ready to supply gas to Europe through the undamaged line of the Nordstream 2 pipeline. The $11 billion contentious Nordstream 2 pipeline, however, failed to receive certification from Germany to start the flow of gas. Germany halted the project, which sought to double the amount of gas flowing from Russia to Germany, in February after Russia recognized as independent two breakaway territories in Ukraine.

The Swedish Security Service found on Thursday that detonations caused the explosion that damaged the pipelines, “strengthening the suspicions of serious sabotage.”

The Nordstream 1 pipeline has the capacity to send 59 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia to Europe each year. Russia had stopped the flow of gas into Europe via Nordstream 1 prior to the explosion, stating that flows would not resume until sanctions were lifted.

end

It did not have to be this way but what should be expected from a coke head

Robert Hryniak12:15 PM (45 minutes ago)
to

Zelensky is a first class clown unfit for anything. That said he was warned by MI6 that an attack was coming and he ignored it just like anything that does not fit his narrative of the day. 

Even in the mid 90’s relatives of mine told me after being in Canada that they would never see such a state even in their life times because it was impossible to catch up. And since the break up of the Soviet Union the Ukraine has been a laggard in development largely because of its’ criminality and thus problematic state for doing business. Even 25 years ago it was simple to go there and become an oligarch if you would pay off. Sole production in everything from canning to plastics was on the table for money. 

Sadly, now the time has arrived to pay for past sins by seeing a beautiful populace thrown back 30 years+ to rid them of a thieving culture. God have mercy on the countries that accept this spawn because they will continue wherever they are. Already elements have entered countries like France and Poland. 

As for the Ukraine forces on the front lines they are learning what i have warned about for a long time Starlink is not secure to Russian lockdowns. They do not have to knock the satellites down only to scramble the signals. Even American satellite info has gone dark so these folks are on their own. 

Attacks on critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine continue – what is known at the moment

The destruction of the Ukrainian energy system continues – thermal power plants, substations and other infrastructure facilities and buildings of law enforcement agencies have come under attack. Electricity has already been cut off in Lviv, Ternopil, Kyiv, Kharkov, Sumy, Dnipro and other cities. The liquidation of 11 important infrastructure facilities in 8 regions and Kyiv is officially announced.

In total, more than 200 shells were fired. There are reports of massive missile launches from the Caspian and the Black Sea, so we should expect a complete blackout in Ukraine soon. There are already demands to remove the top military leadership of Ukraine and specifically calls for the resignation of Zaluzhny. Zelensky is the real problem as he is a water buy for his enablers. And it will only be over when they stop. The parade of 2 Sarmat intercontinental missiles yesterday in front of the American embassy was a direct warning to America to back off. 

THE STAGGERING ARRAY OF X-101 CRUISE MISSILES CURRENTLY VISITING Ukraine’s INFRASTRUCTURE

47 – Nikolaev region

60 – in Kiev

15 – in Lviv

27 – in the Vinnitsa region

20 – in Kharkov

15 – in Odessa region

This will not just be reflected in the suffering and grieve in the Ukraine. France is very reliant on steel from a plant that was hit this morning. Out 25 nuclear reactors only 12 are on line and the balance was awaiting pipe to fix Corroding cooling pipes. France has a power problem going into winter that will affect not just staying warm but industrial output.

If traveling in Europe, be prepared to make changes because there will be further escalation going into November affecting Europe more than what is happening now. 

Meanwhile, it looks like things are heating up in South Lebanon and could easily break out is conflict by the end of this week. 

I will write more later today.

end 

Inbox

Hal Turner Radio Show – MASSIVE RUSSIAN ATTACKS IN PROGRESS INSIDE UKRAINE; Zelensky’s Office Hit By Missiles!

Inbox

Robert Hryniak12:50 PM (9 minutes ago)
to

More here

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/massive-russian-attacks-in-progress-inside-ukraine-zelensky-s-office-hit-by-missiles

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//USA/

FORTUNE MAGAZINE:

COMMENTARY ·CORONAVIRUS

two main stream media commentaries detailing injuries from the vaccines

(zerohedge)

CDC: Record Number Of Children Hospitalized With Weakened Immune Systems

FRIDAY, OCT 07, 2022 – 08:40 PM

Official data suggests that more children and young adults than ever have been hospitalized with colds and respiratory issues, according to the Daily Mail, which notes that “experts have repeatedly warned lockdowns and measures used to contain Covid like face masks also suppressed the spread of germs which are crucial for building a strong immune system in children.”

According to a retrospective report by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), levels of common cold viruses hit their highest level among non-adults in August 2021 – when levels had been much lower in previous years during the same month.

According to the data which sampled nearly 700 children, nearly 55% tested positive for RSV in August 2021. Of that, 450 were moved to emergency departments where nearly 35% had RSV – which is comparable to the winter months when over 30% of patients regularly have the virus, according to the report.

The CDC samples random pediatric hospitals across the US and makes national estimates to gauge how prevalent viruses are. 

There were nearly 700 children in hospital sick with a respiratory virus across the seven wards studied in August last year, of which just over half had tested positive for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) – which is normally benign.

This was the highest levels ever recorded in summer, and came off the back of a year and a half of brutal pandemic restrictions forcing many to stay indoors.

The record all-time high is in December, when 60 per cent of children on wards with respiratory illnesses were infected with RSV. –Daily Mail

What’s more, separate data from the CDC indicates that hospital visits for those under four years old may be getting worse. For the week ending Sept. 18 of this year, 4.7% of ER visits in the US for toddlers were for breathing difficulties.

Yale medical director Dr. Scott Roberts told the Mail that lockdowns robbed children of the ability to build up immunity to common illnesses.

“There are two implications to this,” he said. “First, the gap gives time for the viruses to mutate even further to cause more severe disease. And second, whatever immunity was built up to those viruses’ it will have waned making the immune response now much less potent.”

Roberts added that his son, who just turned two-years-old, was coming down with repeated infections after starting daycare.

“We were pretty sheltered during the pandemic,” he said, adding “But now my son has just started daycare and he is getting constant infections.”

The rise in hospitalizations among children was noted in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), after scientists monitored seven hospitals in seven states for the number of children admitted for respiratory issues. Each child was then tested to determine what disease they had – which doesn’t necessarily mean that was the reason for hospitalization.

end

(fortune magazine)

Strokes, heart attacks, sudden deaths: Does America understand the long-term risks of catching COVID?

BYCAROLYN BARBER

October 6, 2022 at 11:07 AM EDT

image.png

Arizona Cardinals defensive end J.J. Watt recently disclosed that he had an episode of atrial fibrillation. While the condition can be caused by a number of reasons, Watt was diagnosed with COVID in the weeks leading up to his health crisis.

JORDON KELLY—ICON SPORTSWIRE/GETTY IMAGES

A 35-year-old acquaintance drops dead from a hemorrhagic stroke. A friend in her 40s, and another in his 70s, experience recurrent spells of extreme dizziness, their hearts pounding in their chests when they stand. A 21-year-old student with no prior medical history is admitted to the ICU with heart failure, while a 48-year-old avid tennis player, previously healthy, suddenly suffers a heart attack. A relative is diagnosed with pericarditis, an inflammation of the protective sac surrounding the heart.

I can’t confirm the exact etiology of all these cases. But every one of the people I mentioned had a history of COVID either days or months beforehand–and all of them experienced only mild cases of infection at the time.

Is it possible, despite everything we know, that we still underestimate COVID’s reach and danger? It is not normal for me to know so many people with severe conditions. Not normal at all.

Lengthy social media threads have begun compiling lists of people much like those mentioned above, and while there are many possible causes for their health misfortunes, the sheer volume of cases speaks to something more worrisome than just a Twitter phenomenon.

A large international study involving 136 research institutions in 32 countries has documented an increased incidence of ischemic strokes in young patients compared to pre-pandemic levels. More than a third were under the age of 55, and many lacked typical risk factors such as smoking, diabetes, and high blood pressure.

Is COVID the reason?

In a study that included patients from the initial wave of the pandemic, scientists from the University of Florida found that survivors of severe COVID-19 had two-and-a-half times the risk of dying in the year following illness compared to people who were never infected. Of note, nearly 80% of downstream deaths were not due to typical COVID complications like acute respiratory distress or cardiac causes.

“The results suggest that a severe impact of COVID-19 exists beyond the cost and suffering of the initial hospitalization,” says Arch Mainous, one of the study’s authors.

How vaccinated patients have fared

In a huge analysis of more than 30,000 vaccinated patients who had experienced COVID breakthrough infections (pre-Omicron), scientists found that six months later, even the vaccinated incurred a higher risk of death and debilitating long COVID symptoms involving multiple organs (the lungs, heart, kidney, brain, and others) when compared to controls without evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Even the fittest are not immune. Researchers have noted a troubling pattern of sudden cardiac death in athletes in the wake of the pandemic, owing possibly to COVID-related heart complications–myocarditis and pericarditis. The Arizona Cardinals football lineman J.J. Watt recently disclosed that he had an episode of atrial fibrillation and while there are many possible causes of AFib, it’s notable that Watt was diagnosed with COVID-19 just about six weeks prior. Atrial fibrillation has long been associated with COVID. 

COVID reinfections

In a non-peer-reviewed study, Ziyad Al-Aly from the Washington University School of Medicine and his team analyzed the health records of 38,000 people with COVID reinfections. Compared to individuals with a single infection, researchers found that these reinfected individuals had higher risks of mortality, hospitalization, and adverse health outcomes in multiple organs.

These risks were present regardless of vaccination status. Every infection added increased risk for both acute and long-term complications.

We’re still learning how pervasive this all is. An analysis of more than 150,000 COVID-19 survivors published in Nature Medicine found that people with coronavirus are at increased risk of developing neurologic sequelae–including strokes, cognition and memory problems, seizures, movement disorders, and many other issues–in the first year after infection. The risks of developing these long-term complications were apparent even in people who did not require hospitalization during their initial infection.

“The results show the profound long-term consequences of COVID-19,” Al-Aly told me. “Some of these will scar people for a lifetime.”

According to the researcher’s estimate, COVID is responsible for more than 40 million new neurologic cases. A key caveat: The study period mostly predated vaccines. However, Al-Aly says, “We know that vaccines minimally reduce and do not eliminate long COVID risk.” Indeed, a large study found that vaccines were only about 15% effective at preventing long COVID.

No age group is reliably safe

Significantly, the risk of some of these complications is stronger in younger adults. At the other end of the spectrum, a huge study found that COVID-19 increased the risk of developing Alzheimer’s in those 65 and older by 50% to 80%–and that was in people with no previous diagnosis.

Researchers believe that COVID-19 infection induces a prothrombotic and proinflammatory state, which may increase the risk of blood clots. In a cohort study of 48 million adults in England and Wales just published, COVID-19 was linked with dramatic increases in both arterial clots (these cause strokes and heart attacks) and venous thromboembolism (these are blood clots in the lungs and legs, among other places). 

Clearly, we are still in the clutches of the virus, and some of the outcomes are frightening. A study that included data from over a million pediatric patients found that adolescents ages 18 and younger had a 72% increased risk of developing Type 1 diabetes in the six months following their COVID infection. That risk isn’t limited to children; it’s being seen in adults, too.

A nightmare scenario? A mild COVID case that leads to life-long diabetes. But rather than continue to beat the drum for caution, most cities, governments, and even the CDC are loosening restrictions when it comes to COVID precautions.

America needs to wake up–now. A recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey shows that two thirds of U.S. adults have no intention of getting the updated booster shots anytime soon, yet rampant breakthrough infections and more immune-evading variants are on the horizon.

“The degree of immune escape and evasion is amazing right now, crazy,” Yunlong Richard Cao, an immunologist at Peking University in Beijing told Nature a few days ago. In a preprint, which has not been peer-reviewed, Cao et al. found that new subvariants like BQ.1.1, CA.1, and especially XBB, are the most antibody-evasive strains to date. “These results suggest that current herd immunity and BA.5 vaccine boosters may not provide sufficiently broad protection against infection,” they wrote.

In our country, 300 to 400 COVID deaths are already occurring every day. Cases are rising in some European countries such as France, Germany, Italy and Belgium. “We are clearly at the start of a winter [COVID-19] wave,” said Karl Lauterbach, Germany’s federal minister of health, in a press briefing. Germany has just implemented new rules requiring mask-wearing on trains, local buses, as well as in hospitals, nursing homes, and doctors’ offices.

The road ahead is going to be rough until we can develop a variant-proof vaccine, approve nasal vaccines to help block infection at the port of entry and reduce transmission, and develop better treatments. As the virus becomes more immune-evasive, our arsenal is shrinking, not expanding, despite what the CDC and political leaders may claim. The monoclonal antibody strategy, for instance, proved ineffective as the virus outsmarted us and kept evolving, rapidly rendering many monoclonal therapies obsolete shortly after they were approved.

We have plenty still to understand about long COVID, particularly in the vaccinated population, but Al-Aly estimates that 8% to 12% of vaccinated people with breakthrough infections may die due to long COVID. Around the world, an estimated 145 million people are suffering from the condition, cases of which rose more than 300% in 2021.

We need to do a much better job preventing mass infections and reinfections, fast-tracking research, funding new treatments for victims, and developing a coordinated response, both nationally and internationally. Producing universal coronavirus and nasal vaccines and drugs to minimize long COVID risk is a top priority. As Al-Aly puts it, “We need ambitious policies to get ahead of this virus and the pandemic.”

As a country, we’re clearly tired of masking, boosting, and COVIDing in general. But as exhausting as this march has already been, we’re nowhere near the finish line. We must stop pretending otherwise.

Carolyn Barber, M.D. has been an emergency department physician for 25 years. Author of the book Runaway Medicine: What You Don’t Know May Kill You, she has written extensively about COVID-19 for national publications, including Fortune. Barber is co-founder of the California-based homeless work program Wheels of Change

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Hurricane Ian Has Turned Electric Vehicles into Ticking Time Bombs: ‘Extreme Hazard’ – Forbidden Knowledge TV

Robert HryniakOct 9, 2022, 7:52 PM (17 hours ago)
to

Crazy, not a great recommendation for electric vehicles.

end

Global issues:

Mark Caban warns:  the rise in interest rate is a massive margin call.

very important read…

(zerohedge0

“It’s A Global Margin Call. I Hope We Survive”

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 01:20 PM

One week after former NY Fed guru Marc Cabana (who needs no introduction but in case someone is unfamiliar, please read this), warned that the Fed could follow in the BOE’s footsteps, as “the Fed wants to blindly pursue its quest to get inflation down but deteriorating market functioning or frozen credit could push them to intervene.” Then, Cabana – whose pre-crisis predictive track record is matched only by that of Zoltan Pozsar – explicitly warned that the next market to break will be the Treasury market or as he put it, “UST breakdown is a growing risk” to wit:

Thin UST liquidity & limited demand may make the US market vulnerable to a market functioning breakdown, similar to UK. UST breakdown catalyst is unclear but could include: large scale foreign FX intervention to weaken USD / sell USTs, US fiscal shock in Nov with surprising D Congress hold, higher spending for natural disasters, etc.

And while the devastation to the economy and markets would be unprecedented, the silver lining according to Cabana is that “an unanchored UST market may be fastest & most disruptive way to tighten conditions & lower inflation.” Then again, a broken Treasury market would have far more terrifying and catastrophic consequences than just “lower inflation” – it would destroy the US, and western economy, overnight. Which begs the question, which Cabana implicitly posed: does the Fed wants to slow the economy, or have it come to a crashing halt?

While Cabana’s warning – which will come true, it’s just a matter of time – has yet to manifest itself in a breach of the US Treasury market, it is effectively describing the slow-motion collapse in the European government bond market to a T.

And not just today’s latest collapse in UK bonds: as Asia Times’s David Goldman writes overnight, risk gauges in Germany’s government debt market rose last week to levels higher than recorded in the 2008 world financial crash, “as margin calls forced the liquidation of derivatives positions held by banks, insurers and pension funds.”

Picking up on what we observed two weeks ago when we noted the dislocation in US SOFR swap spreads, which just experienced the largest one-day moves in either direction on record for the index, which was rolled out in October 2020….

… Goldman writes a key measure of German market risk – the spread between German government bonds (Bunds) and interest rate swap agreements – jumped above the previous record set in 2008. At the same time, the cost of hedging German government debt with interest-rate options, or option-implied volatility, meanwhile rose to the highest level on record.

Goldman then goes into a bit of brief tangent into what happened with UK pension fund derivatives which

  • “Real” yields, namely the yield on inflation-indexed government bonds, went deeply into negative numbers in Germany and the UK, followed by the US market. That pulled the rug from under insurance companies and pension funds, which invest pension payments and insurance premiums to provide for future income.
  • To compensate, European and UK institutions locked in long interest rates with derivative contracts, or interest-rate swaps, that receive a long-term interest rate while paying a short-term interest rate. Swaps are a leveraged position that requires collateral worth a fraction of the notional amount of the contract.
  • When the Fed jacked up interest rates in late 2021, the value of interest rate swaps that pay fixed and receive floating imploded. Pension funds and insurers were stuck with the equivalent of a ten-to-one margin position in long government bonds. The price of long government bonds fell by nearly 20% across the Group of Seven countries, and the value of derivatives contracts evaporated.

And, as we reported two weeks ago, that left UK institutions facing a tsunami of margin calls that they could meet only by liquidating assets. That in turn led to a run on the UK government bond market, followed closely by the rest of European bond markets. The Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying delayed a market crash, but the UK gilts market remains on a knife edge, with option hedging costs at an all-time high.

Goldman then quotes a portfolio manager at one of Germany’s largest insurance companies who summarized recent events: “It’s a global margin call. I hope we survive” or precisely what we warned would happen just a few weeks ago.

Since then it’s gotten from bad to worse as weaker European banks suddenly have trouble finding short-term funding, or at least that’s what the market thinks, in the process sending the cost of Credit Suisse CDS higher than it was in 2008, at nearly 400 basis points (4 percentage points) above the cost of interbank funding, prompting even more questions about European bond market stability and speculation that the ECB will be the next to capitulate and bail out markets.

What about the US?

So far, American pension funds and insurers haven’t faced the same kind of margin calls, but they stand to suffer painful losses. As interest rates fell, they shifted to real income-earning assets like commercial real estate. The value of commercial real estate investment companies on the US stock market has fallen by 35%, about the same amount as the Nasdaq.

If that’s any indication, the $20 trillion value of the commercial real estate market has lost about $7 trillion this year, in addition to losses of nearly 20% on corporate bond and stock portfolios. Stocks and bonds, the largest components of pension portfolios, are down about 20% during 2022. All in – depending on which survey of pension fund asset allocation you believe – the average US pension has probably lost more than 20% of its asset value this year.

Indeed, pensions don’t even need to have a near-death experience like in the UK: if the value of underlying assets drops enough, the forced selling will begin sooner or later.  And once the capitulation really kicks in – as even formerly bullish Goldman strategists warn – followed closely by mass layoffs, only then will we find just how determined Powell is to pull a Volcker 2.0 and blow up the US economy and markets before he is fired by the president as his parting gift for unleashing the worst recession since the global financial crisis.

Vaccine//Covid issues:

PAUL ALEXANDER…

More Women Than Men Reported Injuries After COVID Vaccine, CDC’s V-safe Data Show; Data collected from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s V-safe app reveal that women

and also recipients of the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines were disproportionately affected by adverse events following their vaccination.

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 7
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

‘COVID vaccine affected more women than men

The V-safe data also reveal that of the approximately 3.35 million V-safe users who reported one or more adverse events, a significantly higher number of women reported such events.


CDC remains corrupted and inept & has repeatedly lied about its safety monitoring of the COVID mRNA gene injection (vaccine), lying about the Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) analysis

Stieber: “EXCLUSIVE: Newly Obtained Emails Shed More Light on CDC’s False Vaccine Safety Monitoring Statements”; the CDC has made false misleading statements three times this year on PRRs
Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 5 ▷  LISTENSAVE 
I am a disinformation expert with CDC, NIH, FDA, and NIAID in my sights. Constantly.
Firstly, this is the CDC’s own document showing it is within its purview to conduct the PRR analysis and how it is done:

VACCINE IMPACT/

The New China: The World’s First Example of a Medical Tyrannical Totalitarian State in 2022

October 7, 2022 2:40 pm

If the Globalists such as those who participate in the World Economic Forum get their way and are actually able to implement a new One World Government, as they have been broadcasting for years, but have now accelerated in their efforts since the success of COVID where they effectively shut down almost the entire world through lockdowns, what would that world look like? We don’t need to guess or speculate about this any longer, because here in 2022 China has shown the world what a medical tyrannical totalitarian government looks like in most of their major cities. I have put together a video report that shows what is happening with China’s Zero COVID policy in many of their major cities, which includes long lines of thousands of people lining up each day to be tested for COVID before going to work or shopping so that their QR code which must be carried at all times MUST show green, what happens when it turns red, the massive amounts of quarantine camps that are currently being built, how drones are being used to threaten people to stay locked up, how Chinese children are being raised in this society, and the sheer volume of cameras that are being installed everywhere to force compliance. This is most certainly NOT happening everywhere in China, but it is reportedly happening in the “Smart Cities” where the technology exists for this type of massive surveillance and compliance.

Read More…

4,500 Dead Babies in VAERS From Pregnant Women Injected with COVID Shots, but Florida Only Pulls COVID Vaccine Recommendation for Young Men

October 9, 2022 3:55 pm

The evidence that COVID-19 vaccines are deadly for unborn children and should never have been recommended for pregnant women, or even for women of child-bearing age who wish to become pregnant, continues to mount. Dr. Drew Pensky, known to most people as “Dr. Drew” via his decades of appearing in the corporate media as a TV and radio talk show host, recently interviewed Dr. James Thorp and Dr. Kelly Victory to discuss the effects of the COVID vaccines on fetal health. Dr. James Thorp is a board certified OBGYN and Maternal Fetal Medicine Physician with over 43 years of obstetrical experience. Dr. Thorp has publicly stated that in the past two years since the mRNA COVID vaccines were introduced, he has seen an “off-the-charts” rise in sudden fetal death and adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as fetal malformation and even fetal cardiac arrest, among his patients. The testimony of Dr. Thorp and what he is seeing in fetal health post COVID-19 vaccines is completely supported by the data in VAERS, the U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, which is maintained by the CDC and the FDA, and it is something I have also been reporting here at Health Impact News for OVER A YEAR now. As of the latest update to the VAERS database this past Friday, there are now 4,499 fetal deaths following COVID-19 vaccines.

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY

Florida Study Finds MASSIVE 84% Increase In Cardiac DEATHS After C19 mRNA Shots For Males 18-39

Inbox

Robert Hryniak11:47 AM (5 minutes ago)
to

And some folks are on their 5th shots

end 

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

END

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

Venezuela//USA

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.96960 DOWN   0.0031 /EUROPE BOURSES // MOSTLY RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX 

USA/ YEN 145.53   UP  0.500 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1066 DOWN   0.0002

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 50.24 PTS OR 1.66% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED  DOWN 523.39 POINTS OR 2.95% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.49%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  MOSTLY RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 523.39 PTS OR 2.95%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 50.24 PTS OR 1.66%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.49% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 195.19 PTS OR 0.71%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1676.60

silver:$19.78

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 113.66 UP 38  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.37% UP 9  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.244% UP 0 AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.50%//  UP 12 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.62  up 11   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.345% UP 14 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.96914 DOWN  .0035   or 35 basis points

USA/Japan: 145.78 UP 0.747 OR YEN DOWN 74 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.10024 DOWN .0038 OR  38 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0053 OR 53 BASIS pts  to 1.3777

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 7.1545

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.1673

TURKISH LIRA:  18.58  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.244

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 0  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  3.880% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.848  UP 0  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 112.28 UP .08 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 31.78 PTS OR  0.45%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 0.06 POINTS OR 0.000%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 26.39 PTS OR 0.45% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 23.40OR  0.31%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 11.40PTS OR  0.05%

WTI Oil price 92.56  12: EST

Brent Oil:  97.13   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  62.69 DOWN 1  AND 68/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.345

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.97064 DOWN .0019     OR  19 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.10610 DOWN  .00031 or  3 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 145.72 UP .687//YEN DOWN 69 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3764 UP 0.0040  (CDN dollar, DOWN 40 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 90.87

Brent OIL:  95.91

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 0 BASIS pts to 3.888%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 0 BASIS PTS to 3.848%

USA dollar index:113.05 UP 0.37 basis pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.58

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  62.69  DOWN 1 AND   68/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 93.91 PTS OR 0.32 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 112.50 PTS OR 1.02%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 32.45 DOWN 1.09 PTS (3.45)%

GLD: $155.48 DOWN 2.40 OR 1.52%

SLV/ $18.509  DOWN $.41 OR 2.22%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//JOBS REPORT

END

AFTERNOON TRADING

US Equities Suddenly Soar After German Denial, Brainard ‘Dovishness’

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 02:02 PM

A triple whammy of BTFDiness hit just after 1300ET as the S&P hit crucial support at 3600.00, German officials denied supporting joint-debt to pay for energy crisis, and The Fed’s Lael Brainard offered a very modestly dovish comment.

As SpotGamma noted before the open, 3600 is the level of the Put Wall for the S&P 500 – a key support level.

As we detailed here, German officials denied supporting the joint-debt issuance (which had weighed on Bunds during the EU day) and prompted a bid to bund futures.

And Fed vice chair Brainard said “Fed is attentive to risks of further adverse shocks, aware that [market] moves could interact with financial vulnerabilities”…

However, she also noted that the “1970s taught [policymakers] that there are risks to easing prematurely.”

This sent US equity prices soaring (with the Dow back in the green)…

Perfect bottom-tick in S&P Futs at 3600.00…

And push Treasury futures prices higher (cash market closed)…

We do note that market expectations for The Fed terminal rate did not shift dovishly at all and in fact are at their highs of the day…

With the cash market closed, liquidity is thin across the entire US market so don’t hold your breath on this equity bounce.

ii) USA DATA/

Credit Card Rates Just Hit A Record As The Average Car Loan Rises To Fresh All Time High

SUNDAY, OCT 09, 2022 – 09:00 PM

With the 30 Year mortgage now (un)comfortably into 7% territory, the US housing market is already suffering the “sharpest turn since the 2008 crash“, according to Redfin…

… pushing the average mortgage payment almost 50% to $2,500 from around $1,700 at the start of the year.

But we won’t focus on mortgage in this post (we have done so excessively on various previous occasions), especially since in a world where most Americans have been forced to rent (with the average house increasingly unaffordable), having a mortgage became a luxury for the middle class long ago. Instead, we will bring readers’ attention to what is no longer a luxury, but with the US savings rate at record lows

… and with credit card debt soaring every month by record amounts…

… to record highs

… it is that tiny piece of plastic that has become absolutely indispensable in funding the American way of life, and unfortunately as the latest US consumer credit report showed, the interest rate on all credit card accounts (that were assessed any interest as of Q2), just jumped to the highest since Fed record-keeping started in Q4 1994.

Yes, between soaring prices, exploding rents (after all, with 7% mortgage which nobody can afford, what’s left of America’s middle class is being pushed into renting), the rate on credit cards – that last lifeline to keeping with exploding inflation – just hit the highest on record. We will leave it to readers to decide what this means for the US economy, but first we just wanted to point out something else.

As we noted last week, used car prices are finally sliding, and not just sequentially…

… but also annually.

That’s a problem if the surge in car prices was the result of soaring auto loans. Which as the final chart in this post shows, was precisely the case as the average new car loan just surpassed $38,000 for the first time.

Translation: the implosion of the US consumer is coming and it will be spectacular.

Source: Federal Reserve

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//

SWAMP STORIES

KING REPORT

The King Report October 7, 2022 Issue 6860Independent View of the News
Saudi Arabia lowers oil prices for Europe but raises them again for the US as White House says OPEC+ is siding with Russia – Saudi Aramco hiked prices by $0.20 a barrel for all US grades, while northwest Europe and the Mediterranean saw declines. While Asian prices for the company’s light oil was flat, its medium and heavy-grade crude prices ticked up in Asia by $0.25…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-oil-prices-us-europe-russia-opec-production-cut-2022-10
 
BBG’s @JavierBlas: For the second day, the White House is responding to the OPEC+ oil production cuts: “We were very disappointed by the decision taken by OPEC and Russia yesterday. We think it’s a mistake. It was unnecessary at this time” — Amos Hochstein, top US energy diplomat
 
@greg_price11: Biden on OPEC cutting oil production: “It is a disappointment and says there are problems.”  Reporter: “So how about unleashing American energy? “He then walks backwards for some reason.  (Freud would say…) https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1578042330380226562
 
Biden ‘looking at alternatives’ after OPEC ‘disappointment,’ doesn’t rule out easing Venezuela sanctions – “There’s a lot of alternatives,” he said Thursday. “We haven’t made up our mind yet.”…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-looking-alternatives-opec-disappointment-doesnt-rule-out-easing-venezuela-sanctions
 
Biden to Allow Increased Energy Production…By a Communist Regime
The Biden administration is preparing to scale down sanctions on Venezuela’s authoritarian regime to allow Chevron Corp. to resume pumping oil there, paving the way for a potential reopening of U.S. and European markets to oil exports from Venezuela…  https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2022/10/06/wsj-biden-to-push-for-increased-energy-productionby-venezuelas-communist-regime-n2614049
 
@DanielTurnerPTF: The United States sits on 1.442 trillion barrels of recoverable deposits. That’s enough to meet our energy needs for 200 years. Joe Biden is the only reason we are dependent on OPEC.
 
US Tapping Strategic Oil Plays into OPEC’s Hands, Blanch Warns
Biden’s use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to blunt surging energy prices threatens to inflate OPEC’s sway over global oil markets, Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch says… https://t.co/qnJh04Qh5n
 
Reuters: Many more details need to be worked out within the G7 and the European Union before a price cap for Russian seaborne oil deliveries to third countries could take effect, European Union officials said on Thursday.
 
Fox’s Peter Doocy: “The President says no one Fs with a Biden, but it appears OPEC+ has done just that.”  https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1577794229870403587
 
We are old enough to remember when Biden, Dems, and the MSM excoriated DJT for his crude language.
 
FT: ECB warns of potential for ‘self-reinforcing’ inflation
The European Central Bank’s rate-setters have expressed concerns over the potential for “self-reinforcing” inflation, with governments’ fiscal packages and the weakness of the euro threatening to push up prices for years to come… https://t.co/IsozyI8AaQ
Inadvertently, Biden and his handlers have fostered public, and even MSM, focus on rising oil and gasoline in the 4.5 weeks leading into the Midterm Elections! 
OPEC+ move reignites Americans’ top worry ahead of November midterms http://reut.rs/3SZKao3
 
Democrats’ bill would pull US troops from Saudi, UAE over OPEC+ cuts https://t.co/b7UnukYwBL
(Futile at best, antagonizing at the least)
 
(Minn Fed Pres) Kashkari say inflation still too high for Fed to mull pause in interest rate hikes – DJ
We are seeing almost no evidence that underlying inflation is coming down… we have to bring inflation down.” (Despite threat of recession)
 
Fed’s Kashkari: ‘quite a ways away’ from pausing rate hikes
The U.S. central bank has “more work to do” on bringing down inflation, and is “quite a ways away” from being able to pause its aggressive interest-rate hikes…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-kashkari-quite-ways-away-143346002.html
 
Kashkari also stated that the bar for the Fed to pivot “is very high” despite recession and anticipated cracks in the US financial system. 
 
I fully expect that there are going to be some losses and there are going to be some failures around the global economy as we transition to a higher-interest rate environment, and that’s the nature of capitalism,” Kashkari said.
     “We need to keep our eyes open for risks that could be destabilizing for the American economy as a whole. But to me, the bar to actually shifting our stance on policy is very high,” he said. “It should not be up to the Federal Reserve or the American taxpayer to bail people out.”…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-06/kashkari-says-fed-has-more-work-to-do-to-bring-inflation-down
 
Chicago Fed Pres Evans: Rate Hikes of 125 bps are expected over the next two meetings.
 
Fed Official Says Inflation Is ‘Stubbornly Persistent,’ Justifying Rapid Rate Rises
‘It is critical that we prevent an inflationary psychology from taking hold,’ says governor Lisa Cook
    “Although lowering inflation will bring some pain, a failure to restore price stability would make it much harder and much more painful to restore it in the future,” said Ms. Cook, who was previously a professor of economics and international relations at Michigan State University. “It is critical that we prevent an inflationary psychology from taking hold.”… “I have revised up my assessment of the persistence of high inflation,” she said. “I am focused on the lag between signs of easing price pressures and actual inflation coming down from its very high levels.”…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-official-says-inflation-is-stubbornly-persistent-justifying-rapid-rate-rises-11665075908
 
ESZs rallied sharply during Asian trading, hitting a high of 3819.50 at 20:20 ET.  After China closed at 2 ET, ESZs commenced a decline that took ESZs to 3763.75 at 6:08 ET.  After a modest bounce, the rally for the NYSE open took ESZs to 3811.50 at 9:41 ET.
 
Alas, aggressive selling appeared; ESZs tumbled to 3758.00 at 10:34 ET.  The rally for the European close persisted until 11:51 ET.  ESZs then sank from 3794.00 to 3765.25 at 12:11 ET.  A Noon Balloon took ESZs up to3787.50 at 12:48 ET.  It was all downhill after that.
 
ESZs hit a daily low of 3750.75 at 15:50 ET.  The final-hour manipulation ended at 15:30 ET with a 20-handle rally.  ESZs and stocks then sank into the close.
 
USZs traded modestly higher during Asian trading but sank minutes before Europe opened at 3 ET.  A bottom appeared at 3:23 ET.  The ensuing rally pushed USZs to a daily high of 127 9/32 at 8:42 ET.  Bonds then tumbled; USZs hit a daily low of 125 28/32 at 10:09 ET.   USZs rallied to 126 23/32 at13:25 ET.  They then slid into the close.  Oil, gasoline, and the dollar rallied sharply.
 
Dwindling Mississippi Grounds Barges, Threatens Shipments (This is inflationary BTW)
A logjam of more than 100 ships, tugboats and their convoys of barges in the shrinking Mississippi River is threatening to grind trade of grains, fertilizer, metals and petroleum to a halt.  Ingram Barge Co. declared force majeure in a letter to customers due to “near-historic” low water conditions on the Mississippi… https://www.ttnews.com/articles/dwindling-mississippi-river-grounds-barges-threatens-shipments
 
UK Pensions Still Dumping Assets Before BOE Pulls Support
The Bank of England’s emergency intervention ends Oct. 14 https://t.co/BK7yMPBjmU
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks did not plunge
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds and stocks declined sharply; oil, gasoline, and the dollar rallied sharply
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How high will oil and gasoline rise in coming weeks?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3760.56
Previous session High/Low3797.93; 3739.22
 
Fed Balance Sheet: -$36.514B; US Treasuries: -$37.922B; Reserves at Fed banks: +$12.276B
 
Fed’s (Gov) Waller Sees Additional Rate Hikes into Early Next Year – BBG 17:00 ET
Waller: We Have NOT Made Meaningful Progress Yet on Inflation (sticky wages?) – BBG 17 ET
Fed’s Waller: Inflation Is Far Too High and Is Unlikely to Fall Quickly
Waller says doesn’t expected jobs data will alter his view on need for more rate hikes – DJ 17:00 ET
Fed’s Evans: rates headed to 4.5%-4.75% by spring of 2023 http://reut.rs/3MdhOo0
 
BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: The Fed’s rhetoric is pushing back against every theory espoused by Wall Street bulls on why the Fed might pause rate hikes.
 
Today – The September Employment Report will dictate early trading.  A strong report will harm bonds and probably stocks for a while.  The Street wants a soft report so they can shill the hype that the Fed MUST pivot soon.  Biden and Dems want a strong NFP report for the looming Midterms.
 
Ergo, the urge to craft a better-than-reality September NFP is high.  We have noted that the BLS has boosted seasonal adjustments that have greatly increased recent Nonfarm Payrolls.  Astute traders and investors must scrutinize the seasonal adjustment change for September 2022 vs 2021 (Table B-1), as well as confirmation of Nonfarm Payrolls from the Household Survey’s ‘Employed’.
 
3800 on the S&P 500 Index was resistance on Thursday; it remains as an impediment for bulls and Fed pivoters.  Despite every Fed official in recent days advocating higher rates and asserting there is no pivot for the foreseeable future, trapped bulls and Street shills still see and forecast an imminent Fed pivot.
 
ESZs are -9.75 and USZs are +1/32 at 20:05 ET. 
 
Expected economic data: Sept NFP 255k (Whisper # 262k), Mfg 20k, Unemployment Rate 3.7%, Wages 0.3% m/m, 5.1% y/y, Workweek 34.5, Labor Force Participation Rate 62.4%.
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3994; 100-day MA: 3957; 150-day MA: 4082; 200-day MA: 4195
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,765; 100-day MA: 31,676; 150-day MA: 33,413; 200-day MA: 33,097
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4745.50 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4065.22 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3806.04 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 3715.19 triggers a sell signal
 
Federal agents investigating Hunter Biden have gathered what they believe is sufficient evidence to charge him with tax crimes and a false statement related to a gun purchase – Washington Post
    Initially, the investigation centered around Biden’s finances related to overseas business ties and consulting work. Over time, investigators focused on whether he did not report all of his income, and whether he lied on gun purchase paperwork in 2018, according to the people familiar with the situation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing case…
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1578089784458764288
 
Why was the Hunter Biden story leaked to The WaPo and why did the paper run the bombshell – just a month before the Midterm Elections?  A few days ago, The Big Guy, against party and Establishment wishes, told Al Sharpton that he plans to run for president in 2024.
 
@RealMacReport: Jesse Watters: “This is not a Hunter Biden story; this is a Joe Biden story. The house of cards could fall if they keep the pressure on. Think about this. If you follow the evidence to where this is going, Joe Biden is a traitor.”  https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1578135061337198592
 
@charliekirk11: Charging Hunter Biden on “tax crimes” and a false statement on a gun purchase is the result of a backroom deal between the Biden DOJ and Biden himself.  He’ll plead down, serve no real time, and they’ll insulate “The Big Guy” from any fallout.
 
Kamala Harris was in accident falsely dismissed as ‘mechanical failure’
Harris was heading to the White House just before 10:30 a.m. Monday when the driver of her SUV “had a minor overcorrection and struck a curb,” Secret Service spokesman Anthony Guglielmi confirmed…Despite the VP’s SUV crashing, it was initially described by the Secret Service as a “mechanical failure” even in an alert to senior leadership explaining the motorcade’s delay, the Washington Post’s sources said… Secret Service Director Kim Cheatle confided in allies that she was disturbed by the inaccuracy of the alert… (Is there anything that government toadies won’t lie about?)
https://nypost.com/2022/10/06/kamala-harris-in-crash-dismissed-as-mechanical-failure/amp/
 
Biden is actually Greek. And Jewish. And raised by Puerto Ricans. – The Washington Post
President Biden, to hear him tell it, is as Greek as Poseidon. He was brought up by both the Puerto Rican community and the Black community. And he’s more Jewish than the Jews.
    “I probably went to shul more than many of you did. You all think I’m kidding,” Biden said to laughter last week during a ceremony celebrating Rosh Hashanah, pointing at a rabbi from Wilmington, Del. “He can tell you I’m not. I’m not.”
    “I’m a practicing Catholic, but I’d go to services on Saturday and on Sunday,” he added. Amid the laughter, he again affirmed: “You all think I’m kidding. I’m not.”
   And this week, speaking to a group of Puerto Ricans in the aftermath of Hurricane Fiona, Biden found kinship with a different culture. “I was sort of raised in the Puerto Rican community at home, politically,” he said… When delivering the commencement address for the U.S. Naval Academy, he claimed to have almost attended the school. When he spoke to a group of athletes in Israel, he suggested he came close to trying out as a walk-on in the NFL… Responding to criticism of that comment, he said a few months later: “I’m not saying, ‘I am Black.’ But I want to tell you something — I have spent my whole career with the Black community.”… https://t.co/OMKDi5kTui
 
Media ignore Jill Biden’s heels at hurricane site after blasting Melania Trump in 2017 https://t.co/vChKNjvCTz
 
New York has more than 3 million voters lacking proof of identity: analysis
The Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF), found that 3.1 million New Yorkers, roughly 23% of New York’s 13.3 million voters, lacked either a driver’s license or Social Security number to prove their identity… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/new-york-has-more-3-million-voters-lacking-proof-identity-analysis
 
@emeriticus: As the CIA keeps beating the drum of war against Russia through Business Insider, here is your regular reminder that the publishing house that owns BI was founded with a $7 million gift from the CIAWhat we have in the US is worse than overt state mediahttps://t.co/HyzXrpwPuF
 
Trump implores GOP to focus on crime as midterms near: ‘People are afraid to walk outside’
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-implores-gop-focus-crime-midterms-near-people-are-afraid
 
Suspect in fatal stabbing of NYC dad was out without bail in subway slashing case https://t.co/RUDbsg1xsE
 
Federal appeals court rules DACA is illegal, dealing major blow to liberals
A federal appeals court declared Wednesday that the Obama-Biden era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program was illegal, dealing a major blow to a liberal initiative that allowed illegal migrants who came to America as children to escape deportation
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/federal-appeals-court-rules-daca-illegal-dealing-major-blow-liberals
 
Inflation, illegal immigration, and crime are the top election issues and have been for months.
 
Hispanics rejecting Democratic Party for GOP over concerns about economy, crime, and family values https://t.co/HiPErBo2xg
 
Biden announces pardons for ‘thousands’ convicted for marijuana possession (Blatant pandering for the Midterm elections)  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-pardoning-all-prior-federal-offenses-simple-marijuana-possession
 
Judge orders FBI to turn over information on laptop of deceased Democrat staffer Seth Rich
Court was “not persuaded” by FBI’s claims of family privacy.
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/judge-orders-fbi-turn-over-information-laptop-murdered-democratic-staffer
 
Hundreds of FBI employees investigated for sexual misconduct quit before being disciplined: report
One memo showed that more than 660 FBI employees retired or resigned after being investigated for sexual misconduct but before receiving a final disciplinary letter… https://t.co/0K1hKzoXHM
 
General is reprimanded by Army for being a Twitter warrior: Inspector general says top officer ‘discredited’ the service by trolling Fox News’ Tucker Carlson over ‘feminization’ of military
    The Army was investigating Major Gen. Patrick Donahoe for ‘improper use of social media, toxic and counterproductive leadership, and failing to treat a subordinate with dignity and respect,’ according to a report obtained by Task & Purpose… Carlson went on to dedicate a segment of his show in July of that year to Donahoe’s Twitter activity, putting a spot light on his debates with people
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11287587/General-slammed-inspector-general-discrediting-Army-Twitter.html
 
WSJ Editorial Board: Fauci’s Parting Gift to the EcoHealth Alliance
EcoHealth Alliance hasn’t been forthcoming about how it used National Institutes of Health grants for coronavirus research in China that may have resulted in the Covid-19 outbreak. Yet Anthony Fauci on his way to retirement this year is rewarding the outfit by giving it more money for . . . coronavirus research.  The NIH last month awarded EcoHealth Alliance a $653,392 grant to analyze “the potential for future bat coronavirus emergence in Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam.”…  
    Early in the pandemic, EcoHealth Alliance president Peter Daszak tried to shut down debate over the virus’s origins by coordinating a letter from scientists in The Lancet that condemned the lab-leak hypothesis as a conspiracy theory… Once again, failure is rewarded by government with more money.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/doctor-anthony-faucis-parting-gift-nih-ecohealth-alliance-peter-daszak-coronavirus-research-11665002675
 
The outfit that worked with the Wuhan virology lab gets more NIH cash despite its virus failures.
@ClayTravis: Howard Stern didn’t leave his house for two years because he was afraid of covid. The most fearless man in radio for decades turned into a pathetic, scared old man who didn’t understand basic data or science. Covid broke him. Sad to see:
 
@robkhenderson: Children living with both biological parents
Affluent families in 1960: 95%; Working class families in 1960: 95%
Affluent families in 2005: 85%; Working class families in 2005: 30%
https://twitter.com/robkhenderson/status/1178310819332984832
Monday:The King Report October 10, 2022 Issue 6861Independent View of the News  Friday’s King Report: Biden and Dems want a strong NFP report for the looming Midterms. Ergo, the urge to craft a better-than-reality September NFP is high.  We have noted that the BLS has boosted seasonal adjustments that have greatly increased recent Nonfarm Payrolls.  Astute traders and investors must scrutinize the seasonal adjustment change for September 2022 vs 2021 (Table B-1), as well as confirmation of Nonfarm Payrolls from the Household Survey’s ‘Employed’.
 
The BLS dramatically reduced its seasonal adjustment to craft a better than reality September NFP.
 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
 
The September 2021 seasonal adjustment is 147,651k NSA – 147,328k SA = -328k.
The September 2022 seasonal adjustment is 153,073k NSA – 153,018k SA = -55k.
 
The BLS reduced the 2022 September seasonal adjust by 328-55 or 273k.  If the BLS used the same seasonal adjustment as 2021, September 2022 NFP would be -10k.
 
For September 2021, the BLS Birth/Death Model shows -87k jobs.  For September 2022, it shows -172k jobs.  If the BLS estimates that small businesses lost far more jobs than last September, how can the BLS reduce the NFP seasonal adjustment by 273k?  https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
 
Establishment Survey Highlights
Manufacturing +22k; Healthcare +60.1k; Leisure & Hospitality +83k (Accommodation & food services +66.7k); Government -25k (Local government education -21.7k) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
 
Household Survey Highlights
 
Civilian noninstitutional population +172k
Civilian labor force -57k
Participation rate 62.3% -0.1
Employed +204k
Employment-population ratio 60.1% unchanged
Unemployed -261k
Unemployment rate 3.5% -0.2
Not in labor force +229k     

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
 
The Two-Month NFP Net Revision is +11k.  Wages are the expected 0.3% m/m and 5% y/y.
 
@KathyJones: The market has increased its expectations for the peak fed funds rate. The probability of a 75-basis point hike in November is nearly 100% based on market estimates. https://t.co/Ux9OXD9rym
 
Fed Governor Waller issued an inconvenient truth for those that see a Fed pivot because financial market liquidity is constricting, via The WSJ’s @NickTimiraos (tweeted at 8:57 PM on Thu, Oct 06, 2022): “The markets are handing us $2.2 trillion worth of liquidity that they don’t needSo, I have a hard time believing that I need to step in and do something on liquidity concerns when there’s $2.2 trillion they can take back at time they want and redistribute… There’s plenty of liquidity, just stop bringing it to us in the ONRRP.” (Overnight Reverse Repo facility) https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1578187384994222081
 
@RobinBrooksIIF: Euro zone recession is coming. German retail sales volumes in August fell -1.3% from the previous month (blue) and are down -5.0% since Russia invaded Ukraine. Meanwhile, US retail sales volumes are holding up and are flat over the same period (black). Euro will go a lot lower… https://t.co/CONPpC6sXl
 
The US 2-year note hit 4.312% on Friday.  Oil (+4.9% peak) and gasoline (+3.2% peak) rallied sharply.
 
Biden admin weighs complete block on offshore oil drilling as gas prices keep rising (Insanity!)
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-admin-weighs-complete-block-offshore-oil-drilling-gas-prices-keep-rising
 
ESZs traded mostly in negative territory from the Asian open until a rally commenced 15 minutes before the 8:30 ET release of the September Employment Report.  6 minutes before the release, ESZs jumped to the daily high of 3770.50.  Some buyer(s) was very foolish.  Two minutes prior to the release, ESZs had plunged to 3710.25.  Who traded on non-public information?
 
ESZs bottomed hit a bottom of 3700.25 at 8:49 ET.  The standard rally for the NYSE open took ESZs to 3723.00 at 9:17 ET.  ESZs then commenced a decline until ESZs hit a new low of 3670.75 at 10:02 ET.  The ensuing rally ended at 10:44 ET.  ESZs and stocks then sank to new lows by 13:08 ET.
 
After a modest rally that ended at 13:43 ET, ESZs rolled over and hit new low of 3645.75 at 14:50 ET.  The last-hour rally began on schedule; it ended quickly.  ESZs fell to 3632.50 at 15:35 ET.  Some desperate soul then manipulated ESZs 17 handles higher in 7 minutes.  ESZs then traded sideways.
 
USZs traded flat during Asian trading.  They declined after China closed at 2 ET.  After hitting a bottom of 125 29/32 at 4:05 ET, USZs traded sideways until a rally commenced when the US repo market opened at 7 ET.  The rally ended at 8:24 ET.  USZs then tumbled from 126 11/32 to 125 2/32 at 8:49 ET.
 
After testing the low at 10:09 ET, USZs rallied sharply, probably on recession angst.  USZs hit a peak of 126 at 12:09 ET and then declined 10 125 12/32 at 15:08 ET.  USZs then went inert.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Bonds rebounded sharply after an early US decline.
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds and stocks sank; oil and gasoline rallied sharply
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How high will oil and gasoline rise in coming weeks?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3655.77
Previous session High/Low3706.74; 3620.73
 
‘He’s not joking’: Biden warns that Putin is deadly serious about using tactical NUKES in Ukraine and the world is facing the prospect of ARMAGEDDON for the first time since the Cuban missile crisis… https://t.co/YDDBLQLu84
 
The WH and DOD tried to walk back The Big Guy’s nuclear war foreboding.
 
@Quicktake: The White House says there’s no “indications that Russia is preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons” following President Biden’s “Armageddon” comment  https://trib.al/FMl5mkf
 
WaPo: “U.S. officials were at pains Friday to stress that nothing they have seen on the ground in recent days has prompted them to expect a potential nuclear strike in the short term…”
 
@laraseligman: After POTUS comments that “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis,” US officials say “nothing has changed” in past 24 hrs.  DOD still assesses it has seen no indications that Russia is preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons.
 
French President Emmanuel Macron chides Biden for warning of nuclear ‘armageddon’
We must speak with prudence when commenting on such matters… I have always refused to engage in political fiction, and especially … when speaking of nuclear weapons,” he added. “On this issue, we must be very careful.”  https://t.co/fnSHsWjLYU
 
Postulating nuclear war 1 month before the Midterms is a grave political blunder.  Americans understand this is not Soviet nukes in Cuba; it’s Ukraine – and it’s Biden and the Establishment’s initiative/war.
 
@ggreenwald: Any attempt to suggest that perhaps a diplomatic solution should be pursued in order to avert the horrific damage from further war, to say nothing of the very real risks of nuclear exchange, is immediately castigated as proof that one is a Kremlin asset or apologist.
 
@DonaldJTrumpJr: Strange how many people on here who lost their minds if someone didn’t want to wear an ineffective face diaper seem to be pretty nonchalant about nuclear war.
 
THE CIA THOUGHT PUTIN WOULD QUICKLY CONQUER UKRAINE. WHY DID THEY GET IT SO WRONG?  High-tech surveillance may have blinded the U.S. to how corruption has weakened the Russian military.
     When it became clear that the agency’s predictions of a rapid Russian victory had been wrong, the Biden administration sent the clandestine assets that had been pulled out of Ukraine back into the country, the military and intelligence officials said… Yet clandestine American operations inside Ukraine are now far more extensive than they were early in the war Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding, current and former officials said (Why the leaks?  There might foment WWIII!) Following a string of Russian defeats, even prominent Russian analysts have begun to openly blame the corruption and deceit that plagues the Russian system…  https://theintercept.com/2022/10/05/russia-ukraine-putin-cia/
 
Welcome to the Consequences of Your Actions, Democrats
Democrats are “seething” about the decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day, but they wouldn’t be in this mess if they had embraced policies designed to expand U.S. oil production and refinery capacity…
    Back in April, Phil Klein observed that President Biden still talks like a senator — that is, Biden isn’t careful about what he says because his formidable political experience was as a senator, a position in which off-the-cuff statements just didn’t matter as much….
     We don’t know what happened behind the scenes in Saudi Arabia when President Biden met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He said he confronted the prince about the killing of Jamal Khashoggi; the Saudi foreign minister said he did not. I think it is safe to assume that MBS was neither intimidated nor impressed with what he saw during his in-person meeting with Biden.
    Remember, after the fist bump, even Stephen Colbert started joking that Biden looked like a weak, hapless old man out there.  Biden left Saudi Arabia with a pocketful of Saudi promises, almost none of which were kept…  And then yesterday brought the metaphorical middle finger: an OPEC+ cut in oil production a month before the midterm elections. MBS has absolutely no fear of crossing Biden
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/welcome-to-the-consequences-of-your-actions-democrats/
 
Democrats urge crackdown on UAE, Saudis after OPEC cuts oil production ahead of US elections
Reps. Tom Malinowski, Susan Wild and Sean Casten have proposed a bill that would remove U.S. troops from the UAE and remove missile defense systems from Saudi Arabia.  https://t.co/9SwDCgtc2k
 
California Gov Gavin Newsom is calling for the Democratic-controlled state legislature to consider his proposal for a windfall tax on oil companies as gas prices in the stay high https://t.co/Z5lqJjj83N
 
Saudi Arabian minister of state blames high US gas prices on lack of American refinery production
Adel Al-Jubeir says the US has seen a refining shortage for over 20 years
https://www.foxnews.com/media/saudi-arabian-minister-state-blames-high-us-gas-prices-lack-american-refinery-production
 
On Friday evening, when the MSM is lifeless, Biden gave US Intel more leeway to spy on Americans.
 
National Security Memorandum on Partial Revocation of Presidential Policy Directive 28
The Executive Order of October 7, 2022 (Enhancing Safeguards for United States Signals Intelligence Activities), establishes enhanced safeguards for United States signals intelligence activities that supersede the safeguards for personal information collected through signals intelligence established by Presidential Policy Directive 28 of January 17, 2014 (Signals Intelligence Activities) (PPD-28). …
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/07/national-security-memorandum-on-partial-revocation-of-presidential-policy-directive-28/       https://twitter.com/EzraACohen/status/1578502453707698177
 
The means of defense against foreign danger, have been always the instruments of tyranny at home… Throughout all Europe, the armies kept up under the pretext of defending, have enslaved the people.” — James Madison at the Constitutional Convention, June 1787
 
The lockdown effect: Record numbers of children are being hospitalized with colds after their immunity was weakened by social distancing and masks, CDC report reveals
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11287779/Record-numbers-toddlers-hospitalized-colds-immunity-weakened-restrictions.html
 
@BrendonLeslie: According to a study done by Florida’s Dept of Health- they found there was an 84% increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related death among males 18-39 years old following mRNA vax. 84%  https://twitter.com/BrendonLeslie/status/1578528121208258560
 
@FLSurgeonGen: Today, we released an analysis on COVID-19 mRNA vaccines the public needs to be aware of. This analysis showed an increased risk of cardiac-related death among men 18-39. FL will not be silent on the truth. Guidancehttps://bit.ly/3ClKF5f
 
@DrEliDavid: Twitter removed official guidelines of Florida Surgeon General regarding mRNA vaccines
 
@thebradfordfile: What employee at twitter is more qualified to opine on vaccine risks than the FL Surgeon General?
 
In Nevada, Trump makes clarion call to end ‘growing tyranny’ of censorship
“As bad as things are today, if the radical Democrats keep their grip on the House and the Senate, your finances, your family, your community, and your country will never be able to recover,” Trump told the crowd. “We are at a tipping point. This is right now a tipping point…”
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/nevada-trump-makes-clarion-call-end-growing-tyranny-cendorship
 
Trains halted for hours in northern Germany, sabotage seen – AP
Operator Deutsche Bahn said early Saturday that no long-distance or regional trains were running in the northwestern states of Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein, Lower Saxony and Bremen… Deutsche Bahn said later Saturday that the disruption was caused by “sabotage of cables that are essential for railway traffic,” and that security authorities had opened an investigation, German news agency dpa reported…
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Technical-problem-halts-trains-in-northern-Germany-17495501.php
 
@MichaelMOTTCM: you can see the 2022 sp500 bear market cycle is following those of 1937, 2000, and 2008 and based on this, we are due for new lows into October 25, with a short-term bottom around then, give or take a couple of days.  https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1578715212940656640
 
@Schuldensuehner: It’s the liquidity, stupid! S&P 500 trades in tandem w/liquidity of global central banks.  https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1578869424832278528
 
New PayPal Policy Lets Company Pull $2,500 from Users’ Accounts if They Promote ‘Misinformation’ … or present risks to user “wellbeing.”… (The outrage was volcanic & ubiquitous!)
https://www.dailywire.com/news/new-paypal-policy-lets-company-pull-2500-from-users-accounts-if-they-promote-misinformation
 
PayPal on Saturday after an account closing frenzy and facing a stock tumble: “An AUP notice recently went out in error that included incorrect information. PayPal is not fining people for misinformation and this language was never intended to be inserted in our policy. Our teams are working to correct our policy pages.  We’re sorry for the confusion this has caused.”  (Fess up!  Who wrote it?  Who inserted it?)
 
Elon Musk says China should be granted ‘arrangement’ to control Taiwan https://t.co/XDRTqKhDeW
 
The Caixin September China Services PMI is 49.3 (55 in August); 54.4 was expected.
 
Today – Instead of the usual buying for the expected Monday equity rally, ESZs are -23.00 at 20 ET (low -35.25).  We see nothing new or novel in the news, except for the ugly Caixin China Services PMI.  Though manic rallies can occur at any time, like last week, the major trend for stocks and bonds is clear.
 
The bond market is closed for Columbus Day.  Chicago Fed Pres Evans 9 ET, Fed Gov Brainard 13 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3986; 100-day MA: 3953; 150-day MA: 4077; 200-day MA: 4190
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,700; 100-day MA: 31,6747 150-day MA: 33,384; 200-day MA: 33,066
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4610.41 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4019.66 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3806.04 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3709.75 triggers a sell signal
 
EXCLUSIVE: Shocking evidence against Hunter Biden revealed: Emails, texts, and photos that could land president’s son in federal prison for failure to declare income from foreign business deals and admit he was a drug addict on gun application
     Despite the Bidens not having Secret Service protection at the time, USSS agents reportedly showed up and asked the gun store owner, Ron Palmieri, to hand over purchase documents… The Secret Service has denied any involvement. But in texts from Hunter’s laptop he also claimed they had a role in the debacle.  ‘She stole the gun out of my truck lock box and threw in a garbage can full to the top at Jansens. Then told me it was my problem to deal with,’ Hunter wrote in a three-way text message with Hallie and his therapist in January 2019.
   ‘Then when the police the FBI the secret service came on the scene she said she took it from me because she was scared I would harm myself due to my drug and alcohol problem and our volatile relationship and that she was afraid for the kids.’…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11289031/Hunter-Biden-facing-charges.html
 
FBI Team Involved in Censorship of Hunter Biden Laptop Story Identified
Meta, Facebook’s parent company, identified the team as the FBI’s Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF), according to an updated complaint entered late on Oct. 6… Laura Dehmlow is a supervisor of FITF. She has been named as a defendant in the case along with Elvis Chan, a special agent who manages the cyber branch at the FBI’s San Francisco Field Office… Chan, meanwhile, bragged on a recent podcast that the San Francisco office “was very involved in helping to protect the US elections in 2020”… He also indicated he works closely with CISA Director Jen Easterly, who has been revealed to have taken part in pressuring Big Tech companies to crack down on alleged misinformation…
https://www.theepochtimes.com/fbi-team-involved-in-censorship-of-hunter-biden-laptop-story-identified_4781643.html
 
Election Firm ‘Konnech’ That Sent Poll Data to China Donated ALL Political Cash to Democrats…
https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/10/07/all-political-donations-from-konnech-went-to-dem-candidates-including-biden/
 
@RNCResearch: BIDEN: “Let me start off with two words: made in America”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1578438020671455232
 
@mrglenn: If Pres. George W. Bush had said: “Let me start off with two words: Made in America,” the combined cast and writing staffs of SNL, the Daily Show, and every late night talk show would have exploded in a frenzy of unbridled joke writing. Yet this gaffe will likely go unmentioned.
 
Las Vegas stabbing suspect is in US illegally, has criminal record in California: source
Yoni Barrios allegedly stabbed eight people on the Las Vegas Strip in a fit of rage, authorities have said.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/las-vegas-stabbing-suspect-us-illegally-has-criminal-record-california
 
Chicago-area’s guaranteed income program open to illegal immigrants – Under the plan, eligible residents of Cook County, Illinois, would receive $500 monthly payments for two years
https://www.foxnews.com/us/illinois-countys-guaranteed-income-program-open-illegal-immigrants
 
Schumer, Democrats Run from Fox News Reporter Asking About Crime
https://conservativebrief.com/asking-67153/
 
Barron’s: The President’s push could revive long-stalled bills in Congress to legalize weed under federal law. Federal legalization is what cannabis investors have waited for. https://t.co/eE7pkx7CBB
(How many or the released pled to possession to avoid being charged with more serious crimes?)
 
Republicans demand answers from Biden officials on report China opened police arm in NYC
https://news.yahoo.com/republicans-demand-answers-biden-officials-191418861.html
 
‘Unknown substance’ on New York metro causes coughing, vomiting among crowd https://t.co/HgsfSc746J
 
Steven D’Antuono: The FBI’s Hatchet Man – It’s not a coincidence that his name appears prominently in the most brazen anti-Trump stunts conducted by the FBI in the past two years.
https://amgreatness.com/2022/10/06/steven-dantuono-the-fbis-hatchet-man/
 
AMA leads push for DOJ, Big Tech action to quash ‘disinformation’ about ‘gender affirming’ care https://t.co/3Gy7dopS7P
 
National Guard troops leaving faster than new enlistments https://t.co/damo8AEh6v
 
Satellite Temperature Data Show Almost All Climate Model Forecasts over the Last 40 Years Were Wrong – Professor Nicola Scafetta, a physicist from the University of Naples… attributes the inaccuracies to a limited understanding of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), the number of degrees centigrade the Earth’s temperature will rise with a doubling of carbon dioxide…
    Claims of ‘record’ heat years and ever higher temperatures are taken exclusively from the surface records. The satellite record is largely ignored. There are even attempts to cancel the inconvenient figures, with Google AdSense recently ‘demonetising’ the site of Dr. Roy Spencer, the Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, one of the main compilers of the UAH satellite record…  https://dailysceptic.org/2022/10/08/satellite-temperature-data-show-almost-all-climate-model-forecasts-over-the-last-40-years-were-wrong/
 
All of Us Are in Danger: When Anti-Government Speech Becomes Sedition
In more and more cases, the government is declaring war on what should be protected political speech whenever it challenges the government’s power, reveals the government’s corruption, exposes the government’s lies, and encourages the citizenry to push back against the government’s many injustices.
    Indeed, there is a long and growing list of the kinds of speech that the government considers dangerous enough to red flag and subject to censorship, surveillance, investigation, and prosecution: hate speech, conspiratorial speech, treasonous speech, threatening speech, inflammatory speech, radical speech, anti-government speech, extremist speech, etc…
    In recent years, the government has used the phrase “domestic terrorist” interchangeably with “anti-government,” “extremist” and “terrorist” to describe anyone who might fall somewhere on a very broad spectrum of viewpoints that could be considered “dangerous.”…
    What the government cares about is whether what you’re thinking or speaking or sharing or consuming as information has the potential to challenge its stranglehold on power.
    Why else would the FBI, CIA, NSA, and other government agencies be investing in corporate surveillance technologies that can mine constitutionally protected speech on social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and Instagram?
    Why else would the Biden Administration be likening those who share “false or misleading narratives and conspiracy theories, and other forms of mis- dis- and mal-information” to terrorists?
https://www.rutherford.org/publications_resources/john_whiteheads_commentary/from_sedition_to_domestic_terrorism_has_anti_government_speech_become_a_four_letter_word?s=02
 
A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit.” — ancient Greek proverb .

Greg Hunter

WILL SEE YOU TOMORROW

Advertisement

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: