OCT 11//GOLD CLOSED UP $10.30 TO $1678.50//SILVER IS DOWN 11 CENTS TO $19.48//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $4.65 TO $904.30//PALLADIUM FLAT AT $2156.75// BANK OF ENGLAND MAYHEM: FIRST PIVOTS AGAIN AS GILT YIELDS RISE AGAIN: PROBLEMS WITH PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS AND ISSUES AN ULTIMATUM TO PENSION FUNDS//USA IS NOW OFFICIALLY IN AN ECONOMIC WAR WITH CHINA RE THE SEMI CONDUCTOR CHIP BAN//CREDIT SUISSE IN TROUBLE AGAIN ON TWO FRONTS//GERMANY REVEALS PLANS TO DISTRIBUTE EUROS TO HOUSEHOLDS//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//UPDATES ON UKRAINE VS RUSSIA//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP  $10.30 to $1678.50

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  DOWN $0.11 to $19.40

Access prices: closes

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1666.70

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 19.17

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $19,093 DOWN 171

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $18,995 DOWN 269

Platinum price closing UP 4.65 AT  $904.30

Palladium price; closing DOWN 0  at $2156.25

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/closing ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD $2299.95 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ DOWN $0.30 CDN DOLLARS

BRITISH GOLD IN POUNDS: 1519.20 POUNDS PER OZ UP 11.87 BRITISH POUNDS PER OZ/

EURO GOLD: 1717.50 EUROS PER OZ// DOWN 2 EUROS PER OZ///

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,667.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/10/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 10/12/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 1
323 C HSBC 17
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 9
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 8
800 C MAREX SPEC 17 2


TOTAL: 28 28
MONTH TO DATE: 21,547

JPMORGAN STOPPED  8/28 

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT CONTRACT:    28 NOTICES FOR 2800 OZ //.08709 TONNES

total notices so far: 21,547 contracts for 2,154,700 oz (67.020 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 38 NOTICES FILED FOR 190,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  359 :  for 1,795,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP 10.30

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 478.196 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 461  CONTRACTS TO 125,743  AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE FAIR LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE  $0.65 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.65).SPECS CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE SHORTFALLS. OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) MINIMAL  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWING A 185,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ MINIMAL SPEC COVERING THEIR SHORTS.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: +69

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 days, total 50,050 contracts:  25.025 million oz  OR 2.777MILLION OZ PER DAY. (556 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 25.025  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  25.025 MILLION OZ INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 461 WITH OUR HUGE $0.65 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 275 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS //  SOME SHORT ADDITIONS//SMALL NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS//  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT. OF 1.580 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 185,000 QUEUE JUMP  .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 186 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 0.930 MILLION  OZ..

 WE HAD 38  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  190,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 173 CONTRACTS  TO 435,083 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED —  -57 CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $33.80//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY //  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF  10,400 OZ//NEW STANDING 68.679 TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF  $33.80 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 3976 OI CONTRACTS 12.367 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2203 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 435,026

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3976 CONTRACTS  WITH 1773 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2203 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3976 CONTRACTS OR 12.367 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2203) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1773): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3976 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS///NEWBIE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP///NEW STANDING 68.702 TONNES//.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT. :

18,788 CONTRACTS OR 1,878,800 OZ OR 58.43 TONNES 9TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2087 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 58.43 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  58.43/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.63% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  58.43  TONNES INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 461 CONTRACT OI TO  125,748 AND FURTHER FROM   OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 275 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 275  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 461  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 275  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS  OF 186  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.930 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.65

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.65 PTS OR 0.19%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 384.30 OR 2.23%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 714.86PTS OR 2.64%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.40%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.1661 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1662//    /Oil DOWN TO 89.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.34    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 1773 CONTRACTS TO 435,026 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS FAIR  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH DESPITE OUR STRONG  FALL IN PRICE OF $33.80  IN GOLD PRICING  MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2203 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2203 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :2203 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2203 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED  TOTAL OF 3976  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2203 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1830  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $33.80//WE HAD SPEC SHORTS ADDING TO THEIR POSITIONS  WITH BANKERS TAKING THE OTHER SIDE AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS.  WE ALSO HAD ADDITIONAL SPECS GOING LONG DUE TO THE ATTRACTIVE PRICE

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING OCT   (68.706),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  68.706 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $33.80) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS (THEY ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS) AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4033 CONTRACTS //     WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR GAIN  OF 12.367 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (68.706 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH A HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF $33.80 

WE HAD -57  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4033 CONTRACTS OR 403,300  OZ OR  12.544 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 156,972//  poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  166,494/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT ’22 COMEX GOLD //OCT 11

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz199,336.173oz


JPMorgan
includes
 6200 kilobars

 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz590.00  oz
Delaware
No of oz served (contracts) today28   notice(s)
2800  OZ
0.08709 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)541 contracts 
54,100oz
1.6827
 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month21,547 notices
2,154,700
67.020 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

Into Delaware:  590.000 oz

total deposits 590.000 oz

 customer withdrawals: 1

iii) Out of JPMorgan:  199,336.173oz (6200 kilobars)

total:  199,336.173     oz   

total in tonnes: 6.2 tonnes

Adjustments: 1//   dealer to customer

Brinks:144,679.494 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT we have an  oi of 570 contracts having LOST 31 contracts . We had  144 contracts

filed on MONDAY, so we gained 113 contracts or an additional 11,300 oz will stand in this active delivery month of Oct.

We will gain gold oz standing on each and every trading day from this day forth until the conclusion of October.

(remember that queue jumping is really EFP’s exercised from London for gold underwritten by COMEX based bankers)

November GAINED 9 contracts to stand at 2968

December lost 2023 contracts down to 368,700

We had 28 notice(s) filed today for 2800 oz FOR THE OCT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 28 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 8 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,547) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (OCT 570 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 28 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,208,000 OZ  OR 68.678 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of OCT. (TOTALS CORRECTED FROM FRIDAY)

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (21,547) x 100 oz+   (570)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (28} x 100 oz} which equals 2,208,900, oz standing OR 68.706  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of OCTOBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  68.706 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR OCT (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,067,434 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 340.166 tonnes//rapidly declining 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  23,926,265.692 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,319,480.319  OZ (383.18tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,606,785.373 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,252,046OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 318.88 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 11//INITIAL OCT SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,654,666.794oz
Brinks
JPM
Loomis
Manfra
Delaware

CNT


 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory427,300.587 oz
Delaware









 
No of oz served today (contracts)38 CONTRACT(S)  
 190,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)40 contracts 
(200,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)359 contracts
 1,795,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  1 deposits into the customer account

i) into Delaware:  427,300.587 oz

Total deposits: 427,300.587 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 160.801million oz/310/725million =51.81% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 6  

i)Out of CNT 1943.944 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 451,327.200 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan: 4965.800 oz

iv) Out of Delaware  1003.100 oz

v) Out of Loomis  599,360.140 oz

vi_ Out of Manfra: 596,066.610 oz

total withdrawals:  1,654,666.794  oz

 adjustments: // 1

Brinks: dealer to customer:  23,950.930 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 40.106 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 310.725 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT OI: 78 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 1 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 38 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE  GAINED 39

SILVER CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 195,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR OCT.

NOVEMBER LOST 1 CONTRACT TO STAND AT 400

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 1141 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 104,170

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 38 for  190,000 oz

Comex volumes:55,855// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 63,623 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  397 x 5,000 oz = 1,985,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(78) and the number of notices served upon today 38  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT./2022 contract month: 397 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (78)  – number of notices served upon today (38) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates 1,985,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:61,618// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 54,383contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

SEPT 30  WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 944.31 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER  UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 478.196 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Americans Continue To Pay For Inflation With Credit Cards

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 11:05 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Credit card debt continues to spiral higher as consumers struggle with rising prices and depleted savings.

In August, revolving credit increased by a staggering 18.1% as total consumer debt surged to a record $4.68 trillion, according to the latest consumer credit data from the Federal Reserve.

Total consumer debt increased by $32.2 billion in August, an 8.3% increase on an annual basis. That was well above the $24 billion projection.

In July, it appeared debt growth was cooling slightly, but the August data showed a big jump from July’s 6.8% increase.

The Federal Reserve consumer debt figures include credit card debt, student loans, and auto loans, but do not factor in mortgage debt. When you include mortgages, US consumers are buried under more than $16 trillion in debt.

US consumer debt grew by an average of over $31 billion per month through the first eight months of the year.

Americans are burning up their plastic in order to make ends meet in these inflationary times. Revolving credit, primarily reflecting credit card debt, rose by another $17.1 billion in August. To put the 18.1% increase into perspective, the annual increase in 2019, prior to the pandemic, was 3.6%. It’s pretty clear that with stimulus money long gone, Americans have turned to plastic in order to make ends meet as prices continue to skyrocket.

Total revolving debt now stands at $1.154 trillion — well above the pre-pandemic record.

Meanwhile, average credit card interest rates have eclipsed the record high of 17.87% set in April 2019. The average annual percentage rates (APR) currently stand at 18.45%. That’s up from 18.03% just a month ago.

And it appears that the Fed isn’t finished raising interest rates. This is bad news for Americans depending on credit to pay their bills. With interest rates rising, Americans are paying higher and higher interest charges every month with minimum payments rising. With every Federal Reserve interest rate increase, the cost of borrowing will go up more, putting a further squeeze on American consumers.

As a result, more people are keeping higher credit card balances for longer. According to a CreditCards.com report, 60% of credit-card debtors say they have been in credit card debt for at least a year. That’s up from 50% just one year ago. The number of people in debt for over two years also increased, from 32% to 40%. According to Bloomberg, “With inflation exceeding wage gains, more households have relied on revolving debt.”

Non-revolving credit also charted a healthy jump in August increasing by $15 billion, an 5.2% year-on-year jump. This includes auto loans and student loans. Total non-revolving credit now stands at $3.526 trillion.

By and large, the mainstream doesn’t fret over growing consumer debt.

In fact, many mainstream reports will tell you credit card spending is a sign of a healthy economy. A couple of months ago, MarketWatch reported, “How much credit households use is seen as a good window into the strength of the economy. Consumers tend to borrow more when times are good and cut back when the economy is weak.”

Meanwhile. Fed chair Jerome Powell keeps telling us that “households are in very strong financial shape.”

But some people in the mainstream seem to be getting concerned about the growing level of debt.

After the August data came out, Marketwatch reported“Some experts are alarmed at the pace of growth in consumer credit and think that households are using expensive debt to keep spending with inflation so elevated.”

And it is clear that Americans are laboring under the growing debt load, along with rising prices. According to a recent report by LendingTree, 32%  of Americans have paid a bill late in the past six months, and 61% said it was because they didn’t have the money on hand to cover the cost.

The bottom line is that Americans continue to borrow at an excessive rate because they don’t have any other way to make ends meet. People don’t run up their Visa balance month after month to buy groceries when they are in “very strong” financial shape.

The stimulus checks are long gone.

Savings are being depleted.

The average person has no choice but to pull out the plastic. Of course, this is not a sustainable trajectory. A credit card has this inconvenient thing called a limit.

Peter Schiff pointed out in a tweet that the spiraling level of debt has even deeper roots. It was intentionally incentivized by the central bank.

end

Peter Schiff: The Fed Didn’t Create The Inflation Problem Last Year; It Was Decades In The Making

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 08:42 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

It’s easy to look back over the post-pandemic era and say the Federal Reserve stayed too loose for too long in the face of rising CPI. For months, the central bank ignored the inflation problem, claiming it was transitory. But as Peter Schiff pointed out in a podcast, the loose money problem isn’t anything new. It’s been going on for decades.

You can trace the Fed’s inflationary monetary policy all the way back to 1998 and the Long-Term Capital Management bailout.

That’s when the Fed really started printing money. And then it printed even more money in advance of Y2K. And then even more money after the NASDAQ bubble popped in 2000. And even more money after the real estate bubble popped in 2008. So, it’s not just one year of excess money printing. The Fed has been too loose for almost 25 years, flooding the economy with cheap money.”

Wharton School of Business finance professor Jeremy Siegel was recently on CNBC arguing that if the Fed had simply started hiking interest rates and ended quantitative easing sooner, instead of claiming that inflation was transitory, we wouldn’t be having the inflation problem today.

That’s short-sighted. The seeds were sown years ago.

But why didn’t Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell act sooner? Peter said it was because he didn’t want to create a problem by fighting inflation because, at the time, he could claim inflation wasn’t a problem.

They didn’t want to fight it in 2021 because it would have created a problem for the economy. Now, the inflation they didn’t want to fight because doing so would have created a problem has itself become the problem. And so, they’ve got a problem either way. They’re damned if they do, and they’re damned if they don’t. So, that’s why they’re fighting inflation now. But even if they had chosen to fight it earlier, before it got this out of hand, they still would have created a crisis. Because it’s not just being too loose for a year. Again, it’s 25 years of reckless money printing — of malinvestments and misallocations of resources. This is a gigantic credit bubble. We just added even more fuel to that bubble in the last year.”

Peter said there was no way around this. There wasn’t a “correct” decision the Fed could have made last year.

All [the Fedf] did was make the only decision that would allow them to postpone the pain for a little longer. They had no idea how much time they were buying by being that reckless. But they didn’t care. The name of the game for the Fed is always ‘don’t create a problem even if it solves a bigger problem.’ Wait for that bigger problem to become a crisis.”

Peter said he knew 2008 wasn’t the real crash. The reckless monetary policy in the response to the Great Recession simply papered things over and kicked the looming crisis down the road.

Well, the real crash is the one we’re headed for right now. And we were going to have that crash regardless of the mistakes the Fed made in 2021. We were going to have it because of all the mistakes it made — not just going back to 2008 — but going all the way back to 1998.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-fed-didnt-create-inflation-problem-last-year-it-was-decades-making

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

Shhh! Don’t Tell the Fed or Mainstream Media that Systemic Contagion at Wall Street Banks Is Already Here

Stock 
Prices of Wall Street Mega Banks from October 7, 2021 
through October 7, 2022

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 10, 2022

At Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s last press conference on September 21 he said that there is “good reason to think that this will continue to be a reasonably strong economy.” Unfortunately, the U.S. can’t have a strong economy without strong banks willing and able to lend. And there are serious storm fronts in that area that the Fed Chair and mainstream media are choosing to ignore.

Last week multiple news outlets raised the question as to whether the troubles at Credit Suisse signaled another “Lehman moment.” (See herehere, and here, for example.) A “Lehman moment” refers to the former 158-year old Wall Street investment bank, Lehman Brothers, collapsing into bankruptcy on September 15, 2008 during a widening financial crisis on Wall Street. Because Lehman was the only major Wall Street firm that the Fed allowed to collapse into bankruptcy (rather than orchestrating a bailout), it has been mistakenly viewed all these years as the catalyst for the carnage that followed. As we will explain shortly, that role rightfully belongs to Citigroup.

According to documents released by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC), at the time of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy it had more than 900,000 derivative contracts outstanding and had used the largest banks on Wall Street as its counterparties to many of these trades. The FCIC data shows that Lehman had more than 53,000 derivative contracts with JPMorgan Chase; more than 40,000 with Morgan Stanley; over 24,000 with Citigroup’s Citibank; over 23,000 with Bank of America; and almost 19,000 with Goldman Sachs.

Below is a share price chart of what contagion looked like on Wall Street in 2008. Notice the highly correlated share price pattern in 2008 and the highly correlated share price pattern in the chart above in 2022.

This Is What Wall Street's 
Systemic Contagion Looked Like in 2008

Lehman’s interconnectedness with other major Wall Street firms certainly fueled some of the systemic contagion on Wall Street in 2008. But the real culprit was Citigroup – a reckless trading house on Wall Street which owned, both then and now, a large federally-insured commercial bank, Citibank. These are just a few of the headlines about Citigroup that ran long before Lehman’s collapse into bankruptcy:

January 10, 2008, Wall Street Journal: “Citigroup, Merrill Seek More Foreign Capital,” noting: “Two of the biggest names on Wall Street are going hat in hand, again, to foreign investors.”

January 17, 2008, Los Angeles Times: “Citigroup Loses Nearly $10 Billion”

March 5, 2008, MarketWatch: “Citigroup CEO Says Firm ‘Financially Sound’” with the opening sentence explaining that “The chief executive of Citigroup sought to allay investor fears Wednesday, a day after the stock hit a multiyear low…”

April 20, 2008, New York Times: “Citigroup Records a Loss and Plans 9000 Layoffs,” explaining that the bank reported a $5.1 billion loss and would have to slash jobs.

June 26, 2008, Wall Street Journal: “Citigroup: Worth Less and Less Every Day,” shares the news that the stock was worth one-third of where it had been at its 52-week high.

July 23, 2008, Bloomberg News: “Citigroup Unravels as Reed Regrets Universal Model.”

On July 14, 2008, Bloomberg News reported that in addition to holding $2.2 trillion in assets on its balance sheet, Citigroup has $1.1 trillion of “mysterious” assets off its balance sheet, including “trusts to sell mortgage-backed securities, financing vehicles to issue short-term debt and collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, to repackage bonds.”

Sheila Bair, the Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 2008, wrote the following about Citigroup in her book Bull by the Horns:

“By November [2008], the supposedly solvent Citi was back on the ropes, in need of another government handout. The market didn’t buy the OCC’s and NY Fed’s strategy of making it look as though Citi was as healthy as the other commercial banks. Citi had not had a profitable quarter since the second quarter of 2007. Its losses were not attributable to uncontrollable ‘market conditions’; they were attributable to weak management, high levels of leverage, and excessive risk taking. It had major losses driven by their exposures to a virtual hit list of high-risk lending; subprime mortgages, ‘Alt-A’ mortgages, ‘designer’ credit cards, leveraged loans, and poorly underwritten commercial real estate. It had loaded up on exotic CDOs and auction-rate securities. It was taking losses on credit default swaps entered into with weak counterparties, and it had relied on unstable volatile funding – a lot of short-term loans and foreign deposits. If you wanted to make a definitive list of all the bad practices that had led to the crisis, all you had to do was look at Citi’s financial strategies…What’s more, virtually no meaningful supervisory measures had been taken against the bank by either the OCC or the NY Fed…Instead, the OCC and the NY Fed stood by as that sick bank continued to pay major dividends and pretended that it was healthy.”

Notice the sentence in the above paragraph that reads: “It was taking losses on credit default swaps entered into with weak counterparties….” Bair was describing the situation in 2008. Now consider this headline we ran just last week at Wall Street On ParadeNew Study: Wall Street Banks Are Doubling Down on Risk by Selling Credit Default Swaps on their Risky Derivatives Counterparties. It is nothing less than an indictment of the U.S. Congress that this is allowed to happen after derivatives caused the greatest U.S. economic collapse in 2008 since the Great Depression.

The official report from the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, following an in- depth investigation of the 2008 collapse, wrote this about Credit Default Swaps:

“OTC derivatives contributed to the crisis in three significant ways. First, one type of derivative—credit default swaps (CDS)—fueled the mortgage securitization pipeline. CDS were sold to investors to protect against the default or decline in value of mortgage-related securities backed by risky loans…

“Second, CDS were essential to the creation of synthetic CDOs. These synthetic CDOs were merely bets on the performance of real mortgage- related securities. They amplified the losses from the collapse of the housing bubble by allowing multiple bets on the same securities and helped spread them throughout the financial system…

“Finally, when the housing bubble popped and crisis followed, derivatives were in the center of the storm. AIG, which had not been required to put aside capital reserves as a cushion for the protection it was selling, was bailed out when it could not meet its obligations. The government ultimately committed more than $180 billion because of concerns that AIG’s collapse would trigger cascading losses throughout the global financial system. In addition, the existence of millions of derivatives contracts of all types between systemically important financial institutions—unseen and unknown in this unregulated market—added to uncertainty and escalated panic, helping to precipitate government assistance to those institutions.”

This morning the Bank of England is in full blown crisis mode, setting up another emergency bailout facility that is very similar to that used by the Fed during the 2008 financial crisis. And, once again, derivatives are at the heart of the problem.

For its part, the Fed announced last year that it had, for the first time in its 109-year history, created a Standing Repo Facility where, on a permanent basis it will make $500 billion available to bail out the hubris on Wall Street. The Fed Chair has the power to increase that $500 billion on a temporary basis at his “discretion.”

And if all of this wasn’t sickening enough, the Fed Chairman who set the Fed on the course of endless Wall Street bailouts, quantitative easing, and destructive meddling in markets — Ben Bernanke — was one of three receiving the Nobel Prize in economic sciences this morning. (You can’t make this stuff up.)

It’s long past the time for the United States Congress to put an end to these serial bailouts of Wall Street by the Fed and pass legislation to restore the Glass-Steagall Act so that the casinos on Wall Street are permanently separated from the nation’s federally-insured banks.

-END-

end

Lawrie Williams

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Fascinating!

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD

Another Ponzi scheme 

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: 

end 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1661 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1662

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.65 PTS OR 0.19%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 384.30 OR 2.23% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 714.86 PTS OR 2.64%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  112.88/Euro RISES TO 0.97161

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.248/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 145.59/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.317%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.724%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.48%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.975//

3j Gold at $1670.75//silver at: 19.47  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND74/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 63.43//

3m oil into the 89 dollar handle for WTI and  94 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 145.59DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9965– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9683well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.927 UP 4 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.896 UP 5 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,58…GETTTING DANGEROUS

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Tumble, Briefly Drop Below 3,600, Despite Latest Panic Pivot By Bank of England

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 08:07 AM

Another day, another rout, only this time there was an even more ominous twist. It’s shaping up as another risk off day on Wall Street, and around the world, as stocks fell… again… as usual… pressured by the relentless rout in the chip sector (following Friday’s decision by the Biden administration to put fresh curbs on China’s access to US semiconductor technology) which sent chip giant Taiwan Semi conductor plunging 8.3%, its biggest drop on record, and wiped out $240 billion in market cap from the global semiconductor sector, while US futures extended their Monday slump amid general amid fears of persistently high inflation two days ahead of the CPI report, and signs that company earnings were set to disappoint. A gauge of the dollar climbed to the highest this month before reversing. 

But the ominous twist today is that for the second time in two weeks, the BOE stepped in the market, this time boosting its “temporary” QE to add linker bonds to its usual array of gilt purchases to tackle what it called “fire-sale dynamics.”  While this helped lift gilts and cable (if only briefly), its effect on futures was truly transitory, with the Emini dumping as much as 1% to a low of 3584, falling below the key level of 3,600, before stabilizing uneasily just above 3,600. It was down 0.6% at last check, while Nasdaq future were 0.5% lower as of 7:45am ET.

In US premarket trading, Meta Platforms slipped after it was cut to neutral from overweight by Atlantic Equities, which sees the social media giant’s growth outlook increasingly challenged by the strengthening macro headwinds and growing competition for advertising dollars; it was also added by Russia to a list of terrorist and extremist organizations. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Zoom shares decline 3% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley cut the recommendation on the stock to equal-weight from overweight, saying the company’s online business needs to normalize post Covid for the firm to unlock the “tremendous value” in its enterprise platform.
  • Roblox falls as much as 3.8% in premarket trading after Barclays initiates coverage with an underweight rating, saying the gaming platform’s daily users are “fairly saturated” and growth is decelerating post Covid.
  • Amgen shares rise 1.7% in premarket trading after being upgraded to overweight from equal-weight by Morgan Stanley, which highlighted the “unappreciated upside” in the biopharma’s mid-term pipeline.
  • Lululemon shares rise 1.3% in premarket trading after Piper Sandler upgraded the athletic apparel brand to overweight from neutral, noting the company’s momentum in the broker’s Spring 2022 Taking Stock With Teens survey.
  • Elastic drops 2.4% in US premarket trading as Wells Fargo initiates at underweight, giving the application software company its only negative analyst rating.
  • Leggett & Platt shares fell 8.6% in postmarket trading on Monday after the company lowered sales guidance for the full-year. Piper Sandler reduced the price target to a Street low, noting that the company’s speciality foam business is not only losing share but has been “disproportionately impacted” by weakness in the bed-in-a-box part of the market.

The mood remains extremely fragile ahead of Thursday’s US inflation data, with the case for another 75 basis-point rate hike likely to be strong if the reading comes in higher than than forecast. Fed officials until now show little sign they are in a mood to pause the rate-hiking cycle despite the potential hit to economic growth.

“We have not seen the impact of tightening,” Michael Kelly, head of the multi-asset team at PineBridge Investments told Bloomberg TV. “That lies ahead and when we see that, it’s another leg down for risk assets.”

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened further missile attacks on Ukraine after hitting Kyiv and other cities in the most intense barrage of strikes since the first days of its invasion. “It’s little wonder investors enter the week in a dreary mood, especially with headlines from Ukraine signaling a further escalation in geopolitical tensions,” said Christopher Smart, chief global strategist at Barings.

European stocks also declined with the Euro Stoxx 50 falling 0.9%. Energy, chemicals and miners are the worst performing sectors. IBEX outperforms peers, dropping 0.7%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 1.4%. Here are the biggest premarket movers:

  • Qiagen shares rise as much as 7.2%, the most intraday since November 2021, after a Dow Jones report that Bio-Rad Laboratories is in talks to combine with the German diagnostics firm.
  • Airbus shares rise as much as 1.3% after September deliveries of 55 aircraft seen as “an encouraging data point,” compatible with the jetmaker reaching its target of 700 deliveries this year, Deutsche Bank analysts write in a note.
  • Dustin shares rise as much as 10%, the most since January, after the Swedish computer and technology retail company reported 4Q results which Handelsbanken said included “solid” organic growth helped by its corporate and public sector unit.
  • Boozt rises as much as 9%, the most since August, after Danske Bank upgraded the Swedish online fashion retailer to buy from hold, seeing an attractive share after recent weak performance despite a “more resilient business model than before.”
  • Mining and energy stocks decline more than the broader European market on Tuesday as metals and crude slide amid concerns over weaker demand due to global economy slowdown and strengthening dollar. BP dropped as much as 3.4%, and Shell -2.4%
  • European semiconductor stocks fall for a third day, following a rout in shares of Asian chip powerhouses including Samsung and TSMC. ASML declined as much as -2.8%
  • Givaudan shares are down as much as 8.3%, reaching the lowest value since March 2020, after the company reported weaker-than-expected 3Q sales. Analysts are worried about soft growth in North America and a miss by the taste and wellbeing division amid a weakening consumer backdrop.
  • Ferrexpo shares decline as much as 11% in early trading on Tuesday, most in three weeks, after the iron- ore maker said production has been temporarily suspended at group’s operations in Ukraine due to limited power supply.

Asian equities headed for a third day of declines amid a continued selloff in semiconductor shares, with markets in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan declining as trading resumed after holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.2%, with a technology sub-gauge falling more than 4%. Chip-related stocks in the region declined in the wake of fresh curbs on China’s access to US technology. The Hang Seng Tech Index also fell more than 3% amid the geopolitical tensions. Read: Chipmaker Rout Engulfs TSMC, Samsung With $240 Billion Wiped Out Hong Kong’s benchmark gauge slipped after a state-owned newspaper endorsed China’s Covid-Zero policy for the second day in a row, quashing investors’ hopes for a relaxation around the upcoming Communist Party congress. Chinese shares edged higher. Rising geopolitical risks are also weighing on sentiment, after Russia bombarded Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Meanwhile, investors remain on edge amid the prospect of more aggressive monetary tightening ahead of the release of US consumer-inflation data on Thursday.

“Thin volumes, high volatility and uncertainty, and a bearish sentiment globally means investors will overreact on the downside to any negative news,” Olivier d’Assier, head of APAC applied research at Qontigo, wrote in a note. Several data releases this week, as well as a further escalation in the war in Ukraine, may trigger further selling, he added. The MSCI’s Asian stock benchmark is once again approaching the lowest level since April 2020, having fallen more than 4% over a three-day period.

Japanese stocks fell, dragged by losses in technology shares amid concerns on earnings and the impact of new US curbs on chip-related exports to China. The Topix fell 1.9% to close at 1,871.24, while the Nikkei declined 2.6% to 26,401.25. Out of 2,168 stocks in the Topix, 285 rose and 1,833 fell, while 50 were unchanged. The market was closed for a holiday Monday. Tokyo Electron slid more than 5% after the Biden administration put fresh curbs on Chinese access to US chip technology. Tech sentiment was also hurt by a forecast cut at Yaskawa Electric, while Fast Retailing dropped more than 3% ahead of its earnings report this week.  “With around 30% of Japanese tool makers’ orders coming from China, we think we are now likely to see cancelations hurting backlogs just when the chip market is facing a major oversupply,” said Amir Anvarzadeh, a strategist at Asymmetric Advisors Ltd., adding that Tokyo Electron would be among the hardest hit.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for fifth day as commodity currencies fell versus the greenback. Aussie and loonie were the worst G-10 performers as global growth concerns prompted traders to seek haven in the dollar; China signaled it may retain its strict Covid Zero policy, hitting stocks and commodities including iron ore

  • The euro halted a four-day decline. German bonds advanced while Italy’s yield premium over Germany rose, paring some of Monday’s sharp drop amid doubts about Germany’s support for joint EU debt issuance.
  • UK bonds edged higher in a bull-steepening move after the Bank of England expanded its financial stability operations, adding inflation-linked debt to its purchases, while pausing the sale of corporate bonds. The focus is on the result of the BOE’s daily bond-buying operation, a sale of 2051 linkers by the government and Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments later. The pound traded weaker versus the euro and was little changed against the dollar. Options traders are adding downside exposure in the pound again as cable retreats toward the $1.10 handle.
  • The yen traded in a narrow range amid caution the authorities will step in to prevent further currency losses. Government bonds fell in tandem with overseas peers.

In rates, Treasuries pared a decline and the curve bear steepened after the panicking BOE expanded its QE operation. The 10-year yields pated Monday’s gilt-led losses led by gains in UK bond market, after earlier touching 4%, while the 30-year yield hit its highest level since 2014; yields on two-year Treasuries rose to the highest since 2007. US cash market, closed Monday’s for bank holiday, remains cheaper vs Friday’s close by as much as 6bp at long end. US 10-year yield is higher by ~4bp at 3.92%, steepening 2s10s by ~5bp vs Friday’s close, with 5s30s also ~5bp wider on the day; gilts bull-steepen with UK 2-year yields richer by 11bp on the day. As reported earlier, Monday’s record slide in gilts was arrested after BOE said inflation-linked notes will be included in this week’s remaining buybacks. US auctions resume at 1pm New York time with $40b 3-year note sale, followed by 10- and 30-year sales Wednesday and Thursday

In commodities, WTI drifts 2.6% lower to trade near $88.74. Spot gold falls roughly $3 to trade near $1,665/oz. Most base metals are in the red. 

Bitcoin hovers around the USD 19,000 mark whilst Ethereum remains under 1,300.

Looking to the day ahead now, it’s another quiet event calendar with just the NFIB’s small business optimism index from the US for September out today (92.1, above 91.6 expected). From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Lane and Villeroy, as well the Fed’s Mester. Finally, the IMF will be publishing their latest World Economic Outlook.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 3,599.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 386.58
  • MXAP down 2.0% to 137.94
  • MXAPJ down 2.1% to 445.19
  • Nikkei down 2.6% to 26,401.25
  • Topix down 1.9% to 1,871.24
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 16,832.36
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,979.79
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 57,610.70
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,644.99
  • Kospi down 1.8% to 2,192.07
  • Brent Futures down 1.5% to $94.71/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,667.26
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 113.21
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.30%
  • Euro little changed at $0.9708

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Record inflation and the danger of winter energy shortages are sinking confidence in the euro-zone economy. As the hard data gradually worsen, the hawks who currently steer ECB policy have only a limited opportunity to deliver more big hikes
  • UK unemployment fell unexpectedly to the lowest since 1974 as people dropped out of the workforce at a record rate. The government said 3.5% of adults were looking for work in the three months through August, down from 3.6% the month before. Economists had expected no change
  • From Japanese pensions and life insurers to foreign governments and US commercial banks, where once they were lining up to get their hands on US government debt, most have now stepped away. And then there’s the Federal Reserve, which a few weeks ago upped the pace that it plans to offload Treasuries from its balance sheet to $60 billion a month
  • Credit Suisse Group AG is the last of 16 banks to face a US class-action lawsuit accusing it of conspiring with others to rig the foreign exchange market

A more detailed breakdown courtesy of RanSquawk

APAC stocks traded with a negative bias as several markets returned from the long weekend and reacted to the recent bearish themes with tech stocks hit due to the US’s chip tech curbs on China and with global sentiment not helped by the heightened geopolitical concerns after Russia’s missile assault on Ukrainian cities. ASX 200 was indecisive after mixed data and with the index subdued by underperformance in tech and energy. Nikkei 225 declined with the reopening of Japan’s borders overshadowed by tech sector woes which also saw heavy selling pressure on South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with notable losses in tech and casino stocks in which the latter suffered after domestic trips in China during the National Day Golden Week holiday fell by 18% Y/Y, while sentiment was also dampened by increased lockdown concerns as China tightened COVID controls ahead of the Communist Party congress including the rollout of mandatory biweekly mass testing in Shanghai.

Top Asian News

  • China Securities Daily suggested that China may cut RRR in Q4.
  • People’s Daily said China must stick to zero-COVID policy which is sustainable and key to stabilising the economy.
  • China’s Xi’an announced on Tuesday to suspend onsite classes for some students amid the COVID-19 flare-ups, other areas including culture venues, tourist attractions and cinemas also suspended services on Tuesday, according to Global Times.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1075 vs exp. 7.1038 (prev. 7.0992)
  • Japanese PM Kishida said the BoJ needed to maintain policy until wages increase, while he urged companies that increase prices to raise pay also and said the government will prepare measures to help companies raise salaries, according to FT.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are closely watching FX moves with a strong sense of urgency and will respond to excess FX moves, according to Reuters.
  • Japan’s MOF top currency official Kanda said they are always ready to take necessary steps against FX volatility and said he can make a decision on FX intervention anywhere even from an aeroplane, according to TBS.
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said they are closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency; to take appropriate steps on excess FX moves, via Reuters.
  • Japan is to draw up economic measures before the end of October, according to NHK.
  • RBI likely sold USD in spot and received forwards via state-run banks, according to traders cited by Reuters.
  • RBNZ Governor Orr said in the Annual Report that there is more work to do and increasing the OCR is the most effective way we can reduce inflation and support maximum sustainable employment over the coming years, consistent with our monetary policy remit.

European bourses are once again underwater as the selling pressure from yesterday has bled through into today’s session. Sectors in Europe are mostly softer but Retail is the standout outperformer. Stateside, US futures are also on the backfoot with the e-mini S&P Dec contract dipping below 3600 in a continuation of yesterday’s losses.

Top European News

  • Barclaycard UK consumer spending rose 1.8% Y/Y in September which was the slowest pace since February 2021.
  • Germany’s government rejected the report about Chancellor Scholz backing joint EU debt for loans to ease the energy crisis and said “such plans are not known in the government”, according to a source cited by Reuters.
  • German Chancellor Scholz said Germany will discuss inflation reduction act with the US; there must be no customs war, via Reuters.
  • EU trade commissioner said it is working on a new temporary state aid framework which will allow countries to support firms hit by high energy bills; adds that decoupling from China is not an option for EU companies, via Reuters.
  • UK Chancellor Kwarteng will need to plug a GBP 60bln hole in the public finances with either spending reductions or a tax raid, according to the IFS via the Telegraph.
  • BoE said it intends to purchase index-linked Gilts, effective from Oct 11-14, and announced a temporary pause to corporate bond sales. Linker purchases will act as a backstop to restore order; purchases are time limited.
  • Many pension funds feel that the BoE intervention in gilts market should be extended to October 31st “and possibly beyond”, according to the Pension Fund Trade Body cited by Reuters.
  • Brookfield, DigitalBridge Said to Weigh Vantage Stake Bid
  • European Gas Rises on Supply Risks as Russia Escalates War
  • Apollo Makes Quick Gains on CLOs Dumped by UK Pension Funds
  • Credit Suisse Is Final Holdout in FX Rigging Case Going to Trial
  • Discounted Fuel, Grains Make Taliban Boost Trade With Russia

FX

  • DXY is firmer on the day with a current intraday high of 113.50 (vs a 112.95 low)
  • G10s are mixed vs the USD with the CAD and AUD the laggards, in-fitting with losses across oil and base metals respectively.
  • USD/JPY held within a 145.86-50 range (vs YTD high of 145.90) following more jawboning from Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno.

Fixed Income

  • Schatz and Bund futures both retreated to new intraday lows and the latter is just under Monday’s 135.83 session base, at 135.81.
  • The 10yr UK debt future also recoiled to a deeper Liffe low (92.06) before bouncing and thereby remaining ‘comfortably’ off yesterday’s 91.46 trough.
  • US Treasuries are narrowly mixed and side-lined awaiting the return of cash traders, more Fed speakers and USD 40bln 3 year issuance.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures are weaker intraday amid several factors including technicals, a firmer Dollar, alongside further bearish COVID-related headlines emanating from China.
  • Spot gold is relatively flat despite the firmer Dollar, but remains under its 21 DMA (1,674/oz) as the clock ticks down to US CPI on Thursday.
  • LME metals meanwhile are mostly lower with 3M copper softer on the day amid the stronger Buck, sullied risk tone, and with the Chinese COVID restrictions an ongoing tail risk with the metal moving on either side of USD 7,500/t.
  • Iranian State News Agency denied reports of worker strikes at Abadan refinery, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics

  • US President Biden and G7 leaders will hold a virtual meeting today to discuss their commitment to support Ukraine, according to the White House.
  • US Democrat Senator Menendez threatened to block US cooperation with Saudi amid its deepening ties with Russia, while he ripped into the decision to cut oil output and effectively accused Saudi of fuelling Russia’s war machine, according to Business Insider.
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said direct conflict with the US and NATO is not in Moscow’s interests but noted that Russia will take adequate countermeasures in response to the West’s growing involvement in the Ukraine conflict, according to RIA.
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia does not threaten anyone with the use of nuclear weapons, via Al Jazeera

US Event Calendar

  • 06:00: Sept. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, 92.1, est. 91.5, prior 91.8

Central Banks

  • 12:00: Fed’s Mester Speaks to Economics Club of New York

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s been another rough 24 hours for markets, with a major European bond selloff after Bloomberg reported that German Chancellor Scholz would support issuing joint EU debt to deal with the energy crisis. At this stage it’s just a report without formal confirmation and we’ll have to see how it might be executed, so we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. However, the details from the story suggested that Scholz had signalled an openness to common borrowing at last week’s EU summit in Prague, so long as the money was distributed in the form of loans rather than grants. So perhaps the common borrowing announced during the pandemic will prove to have been the first of many rather than a one-off. If the last decade was all about how Europe/Germany could get away with as little fiscal spending as they could, this decade seems to be all about spending. This continues to change the macro dynamics of the continent completely from where it was, especially with regards bond yields and the depo rate.

We should note however, that after Europe closed, Reuters suggested that a German government source rejected the story that Berlin backed such joint EU debt for this purpose. So we’ll see if there is any retracement in yields this morning as the initial market reaction was substantial.

Yields on 10yr bunds surged +14.3bps on the day (+11bps after the story hit) to close at 2.33%, thus leaving them at their highest closing level since 2011. There were similar moves across the continent, with yields on 10yr OATs up +11.5bps to a post-2012 high of 2.91%. However, the big outperformer were Italian BTPs where yields actually fell on the day following the news, with the spread between 10yr BTPs over bunds down by -21.3bps to 230bps. That was a big change from earlier in the session, when the Italian spread had been on track to close at its widest level since April 2020 as nerves built ahead of Italian draft budget proposals.

However it was a case of anything Europe could do, the UK could do worse, as the 10yr Gilt yield soared by +23.6bps on the day to 4.46% after the BoE announced fresh measures (see below) which seemed to scare investors of what might be out there rather than reassured them. The moves were eerily reminiscent of the late-September turmoil after the mini-budget, with rises in yields taking place across all maturities, with the 30yr yield up by an even-larger +28.8bps. It’s clear that LDI trades are still creating some tension in the market. If nominal yield moves weren’t enough for you, the movements in real yields were even more astonishing, with the 10yr real yield up by +64.1bps on the day to close at 1.23%, which is its highest closing level since 2009. In the meantime, sterling (-0.28%) lost ground against the US Dollar for a 4th consecutive session, closing at $1.1055, and implied sterling-dollar volatility over the next month has also been creeping back up to near its levels shortly after the mini-budget.

Those movements for gilts came in spite of numerous announcements from UK policymakers yesterday as they sought to deal with the mini-budget’s legacy. First, the Bank of England said that as part of their ongoing intervention to purchase long-dated government gilts, they would increase the maximum auction sizes for this week, which comes ahead of the planned end to the operation on Friday. In addition, they announced the launch of a “Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility”, which is designed to help ease pressures on liability driven investment funds. Second, we heard that the government were bringing forward the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan to October 31 from November 23, which will be published alongside a forecast from the independent OBR. And finally, it was confirmed that James Bowler would be the new Permanent Secretary to the Treasury (the most senior civil servant in the department). Bowler is currently Permanent Secretary at the Department for International Trade but has over 20 years’ experience working in the Treasury, and the appointment was widely reported as a U-turn by PM Truss to reassure markets. That’s because Truss had pledged when running for PM that she would combat the “Treasury orthodoxy”, but has instead opted for someone with lengthy experience in the department.

Over in the US, Treasury markets weren’t actually open given the Columbus Day holiday, but Fed funds futures showed that investors were continuing to price out the pivot speculation from early last week, with the rate priced in by December 2023 up by a further +6bps to 4.46% over the last 24 hours and up from 4% at the pivot lows a week ago. In Asia, yields on the 30-year UST (+10.38 bps) rose to 3.95%, the highest since 2014, whereas the 10yr yield (+11bps) has broken through the 4.0% threshold as we go to press.

This all follows a fresh set of comments from Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Evans, who said that “I see the nominal funds rate rising to a bit above 4.5% early next year and then remaining at this level for some time while we assess how our policy adjustments are affecting the economy”. Vice Chair Brainard spoke late in the session but didn’t really move the needle too much but her comment that the Fed should be cautious seemed to lean a little dovish even though she covered both sides of the argument. Henry in my team wrote about the five “Fed pivot” trades that markets have tried to encourage in the last few months in his weekly “Mapping Markets” yesterday. See here for more.

Whilst bonds were having another bad day, there wasn’t much respite for equities either, with the S&P 500 (-0.75%) moving lower for a 4th consecutive session, which leaves it less than 1% away from its closing low for the year at end-September. The 6% rally in the first 2 and a bit days of the quarter seems a lifetime away rather than 3 business days ago. The more interest-sensitive tech stocks bore the brunt of the declines, with the NASDAQ down -1.04% to close at its lowest level since July 2020, whilst the FANG+ index (-1.17%) of megacap tech stocks has now shed around -43% since its all-time peak back in November 2021. Backin Europe the tone was also a fairly negative one, with the STOXX 600 (-0.40%) losing ground for a 4th day in a row as well.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower this morning as concerns continue about the Fed’s tightening cycle alongside Washington’s semiconductor export controls on China. As I type, the Nikkei (-2.34%) and the Kospi (-2.29%) are sharply lower after resuming trading following a holiday with the Hang Seng (-1.43%) also sliding. Bucking the trend are Chinese equities with the Shanghai Composite (+0.40%) and the CSI (+0.49%) both moving higher. However, concerns over rising Covid-19 cases in China are still hovering in the background. In overnight trading, US stock futures point to further losses with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (-0.45%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.40%) both trading in negative territory.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s current account surplus (+58.9 billion yen) shrank to its smallest amount on record for the month of August as import prices surged compared to July’s surplus of +229.0 billion yen.

In geopolitical news, the G-7 nations have called for an emergency meeting (videoconference) today to discuss the escalating war in Ukraine in the wake of Russia’s revenge attacks over the last 24 hours. In addition to this, the G7 will also discuss energy issues in an attempt to bring down gas prices by creating a buyer’s alliance.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK labour market data for August and September, Italy’s industrial production for August, as well as the NFIB’s small business optimism index from the US for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Lane and Villeroy, as well the Fed’s Mester. Finally, the IMF will be publishing their latest World Economic Outlook

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Sentiment across markets sullied with the ES Dec’22 dipping under 3,600; DXY tested 113.50 to the upside – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 06:51 AM

  • European bourses are once again underwater; US futures are also on the backfoot with the ES Dec’22 contract dipping below 3600
  • DXY is firmer on the day with a current intraday high of 113.50, G10s are mixed vs the USD with the CAD and AUD the laggards
  • Schatz and Bund futures both retreated to new intraday lows, 10yr UK debt future also recoiled to a deeper Liffe low, and US Treasuries are narrowly mixed 
  • BoE said it intends to purchase index-linked Gilts effective from Oct 11-14, and announced a temporary pause to corporate bond sales
  • Taiwan said that two US Congressional delegations are to visit this week, according to a statement
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US IBD/TIPP, speeches from ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Harker & Mester, BoE’s Bailey & Cunliffe, SNB’s Jordan, RBA’s Ellis, Astana Summit, auction from the US

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

11th October 2022

  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are once again underwater as the selling pressure from yesterday has bled through into today’s session.
  • Sectors in Europe are mostly softer but Retail is the standout outperformer.
  • Stateside, US futures are also on the backfoot with the e-mini S&P Dec contract dipping below 3600 in a continuation of yesterday’s losses.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY is firmer on the day with a current intraday high of 113.50 (vs a 112.95 low)
  • G10s are mixed vs the USD with the CAD and AUD the laggards, in-fitting with losses across oil and base metals respectively.
  • USD/JPY held within a 145.86-50 range (vs YTD high of 145.90) following more jawboning from Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno.
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Schatz and Bund futures both retreated to new intraday lows and the latter is just under Monday’s 135.83 session base, at 135.81.
  • The 10yr UK debt future also recoiled to a deeper Liffe low (92.06) before bouncing and thereby remaining ‘comfortably’ off yesterday’s 91.46 trough.
  • US Treasuries are narrowly mixed and side-lined awaiting the return of cash traders, more Fed speakers and USD 40bln 3 year issuance.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures are weaker intraday amid several factors including technicals, a firmer Dollar, alongside further bearish COVID-related headlines emanating from China.
  • Spot gold is relatively flat despite the firmer Dollar, but remains under its 21 DMA (1,674/oz) as the clock ticks down to US CPI on Thursday.
  • LME metals meanwhile are mostly lower with 3M copper softer on the day amid the stronger Buck, sullied risk tone, and with the Chinese COVID restrictions an ongoing tail risk with the metal moving on either side of USD 7,500/t.
  • Iranian State News Agency denied reports of worker strikes at Abadan refinery, according to Reuters.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • Barclaycard UK consumer spending rose 1.8% Y/Y in September which was the slowest pace since February 2021.
  • Germany’s government rejected the report about Chancellor Scholz backing joint EU debt for loans to ease the energy crisis and said “such plans are not known in the government”, according to a source cited by Reuters.
  • German Chancellor Scholz said Germany will discuss inflation reduction act with the US; there must be no customs war, via Reuters.
  • EU trade commissioner said it is working on a new temporary state aid framework which will allow countries to support firms hit by high energy bills; adds that decoupling from China is not an option for EU companies, via Reuters.
  • UK Chancellor Kwarteng will need to plug a GBP 60bln hole in the public finances with either spending reductions or a tax raid, according to the IFS via the Telegraph.
  • BoE said it intends to purchase index-linked Gilts, effective from Oct 11-14, and announced a temporary pause to corporate bond sales. Linker purchases will act as a backstop to restore order; purchases are time limited.
  • Many pension funds feel that the BoE intervention in gilts market should be extended to October 31st “and possibly beyond”, according to the Pension Fund Trade Body cited by Reuters.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • UK Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Aug) 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 5.2%)
  • UK Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY (Aug) 6.0% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 5.5%)
  • UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Aug) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%)
  • UK Claimant Count Unem Chng* (Sep) 25.5k (Prev. 6.3k, Rev. 1.1k)

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin hovers around the USD 19,000 mark whilst Ethereum remains under 1,300.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • US President Biden and G7 leaders will hold a virtual meeting today to discuss their commitment to support Ukraine, according to the White House.
  • US Democrat Senator Menendez threatened to block US cooperation with Saudi amid its deepening ties with Russia, while he ripped into the decision to cut oil output and effectively accused Saudi of fuelling Russia’s war machine, according to Business Insider.
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said direct conflict with the US and NATO is not in Moscow’s interests but noted that Russia will take adequate countermeasures in response to the West’s growing involvement in the Ukraine conflict, according to RIA.
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia does not threaten anyone with the use of nuclear weapons, via Al Jazeera

OTHER

  • Taiwan said that two US Congressional delegations are to visit this week, according to a statement.
  • Iran began enriching uranium with the third of three cascades of advanced IR-6 centrifuges recently installed at the Natanz plant, while it plans to install an extra three cascades of advanced IR-2M centrifuges at the plant, according to the IAEA report cited by Reuters.
  • Lebanon and Israel have reached a historic agreement regarding the maritime border.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks traded with a negative bias as several markets returned from the long weekend and reacted to the recent bearish themes with tech stocks hit due to the US’s chip tech curbs on China and with global sentiment not helped by the heightened geopolitical concerns after Russia’s missile assault on Ukrainian cities.
  • ASX 200 was indecisive after mixed data and with the index subdued by underperformance in tech and energy.
  • Nikkei 225 declined with the reopening of Japan’s borders overshadowed by tech sector woes which also saw heavy selling pressure on South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with notable losses in tech and casino stocks in which the latter suffered after domestic trips in China during the National Day Golden Week holiday fell by 18% Y/Y, while sentiment was also dampened by increased lockdown concerns as China tightened COVID controls ahead of the Communist Party congress including the rollout of mandatory biweekly mass testing in Shanghai.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • China Securities Daily suggested that China may cut RRR in Q4.
  • People’s Daily said China must stick to zero-COVID policy which is sustainable and key to stabilising the economy.
  • China’s Xi’an announced on Tuesday to suspend onsite classes for some students amid the COVID-19 flare-ups, other areas including culture venues, tourist attractions and cinemas also suspended services on Tuesday, according to Global Times.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1075 vs exp. 7.1038 (prev. 7.0992)
  • Japanese PM Kishida said the BoJ needed to maintain policy until wages increase, while he urged companies that increase prices to raise pay also and said the government will prepare measures to help companies raise salaries, according to FT.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are closely watching FX moves with a strong sense of urgency and will respond to excess FX moves, according to Reuters.
  • Japan’s MOF top currency official Kanda said they are always ready to take necessary steps against FX volatility and said he can make a decision on FX intervention anywhere even from an aeroplane, according to TBS.
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said they are closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency; to take appropriate steps on excess FX moves, via Reuters.
  • Japan is to draw up economic measures before the end of October, according to NHK.
  • RBI likely sold USD in spot and received forwards via state-run banks, according to traders cited by Reuters.
  • RBNZ Governor Orr said in the Annual Report that there is more work to do and increasing the OCR is the most effective way we can reduce inflation and support maximum sustainable employment over the coming years, consistent with our monetary policy remit.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index (Oct) 83.7 (Prev. 84.4)
  • Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment MM (Oct) -0.9% (Prev. 3.9%)
  • Australian NAB Business Confidence* (Sep) 5 (Prev. 10)
  • Australian NAB Business Conditions* (Sep) 25 (Prev. 20, Rev. 22)
  • Japanese Current Account (JPY)(Aug) 58.9B vs. Exp. 121.8B (Prev. 229.0B)
  • Japanese Trade Balance BOP Basis (JPY)(Aug) -2124.7B (Prev. -1808.7B)

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.65 PTS OR 0.19%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 384.30 OR 2.23%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 714.86PTS OR 2.64%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.40%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.1661 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1662//    /Oil DOWN TO 89.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.34    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/USA

USA fires first shot across the bow in stopping semi conductor chips entering China. Thus, the uSA is now officially in an economic war with China. 

Will China hasten its attack on Taiwan to obtain semiconductor chips?

(zerohedge)

“No Possibility Of Reconciliation” Any Longer: US And China Are Now “Officially In An Economic War”

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 05:20 PM

Semiconductor stocks across the globe – in Hong Kong, Europe and certainly in the US – are tumbling after the Biden administration on Friday unveiled new restrictions on technology exports to China which are meant to undercut Beijing’s ability to develop wide swaths of its economy, from semiconductors and supercomputers to surveillance systems and advanced weapons.

As noted earlier, the US Commerce Department on Friday unveiled sweeping new regulations that limit the sale of semiconductors and chip-making equipment to Chinese customers, striking at the foundation of the country’s efforts to build its own chip industry. The agency also added 31 organizations to its unverified list, including Yangtze Memory Technologies and a subsidiary of leading chip equipment maker Naura Technology, severely limiting their ability to buy technology from abroad.

The move is the Biden admin’s most aggressive yet as it tries to stop China from developing technological capabilities it sees as a threat. And, as Bloomberg notes, depending on how broadly Washington enforces the restrictions, the impact could extend well beyond semiconductors and into industries that rely on high-end computing, from electric vehicles and aerospace to simple gadgets like smartphones.

The two countries are now officially in an “economic war,” Dylan Patel, chief analyst at SemiAnalysis, said. A Chinese analyst said there is “no possibility of reconciliation” any longer.

Chinese state media and officials over the weekend raged against the action, warning of economic consequences and stirring speculation about potential retaliation. He Xiaopeng, chairman and CEO of Chinese EV maker Xpeng, warned last month that escalating US restrictions on chip exports will set back the nation’s autonomous driving sector.

“This is the US salvo against China’s efforts to build its domestic tech capabilities,” said Patel, who estimates the restrictions could reduce global technology and industry trade by hundreds of billions of dollars. “It’s the US firing back, making clear they will fight back.”

European and Chinese semiconductor stocks tumbled on the news. ASML Holding NV, the most advanced maker of equipment for producing semiconductors, fell more than 3%. Bellwether Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. fell as much as 5.2% in Hong Kong on Monday, the most since Aug. 15, as Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Charles Shum slashed his estimate on 2023 growth by 50%. Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd. plunged 10%, while Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Co. plummeted 25%. Naura fell by its daily limit of 10% in mainland China, the biggest fall since April.

According to Dan Wang, technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, “the rules are a directional signal about US policy on China: a very hawkish consensus is now cemented in place.”

US officials said the new restrictions are necessary to stop China from becoming more of an economic and military menace. As a reminder, it was back in 2018 when we first explained that the “trade” war with China was really all about chips and semiconductors, preventing China from overtaking the US before it’s too late. They are seeking to ensure the country’s chipmakers don’t secure the capability to make advanced semiconductors.

China “has poured resources into developing supercomputing capabilities and seeks to become a world leader in artificial intelligence by 2030,” said Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration Thea D. Rozman Kendler. “It is using these capabilities to monitor, track and surveil their own citizens, and fuel its military modernization.”

Reaction in China was furious. The nationalistic Global Times newspaper warned the “savage attack on free trade” would have dire consequences for the US.

“Only arrogant and ignorant people can truly believe that the US can block the development of China’s semiconductor or other technology industries by these illegitimate means,” it said in an editorial. “The US hegemony in science and technology that harms others without benefiting itself may bring some short-term difficulties to China’s semiconductor industry, but will in turn strengthen China’s will and ability to stand on its own in science and technology.”

Quoted by Bloomberg, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said the measures are unfair and will “deal a blow to global industrial and supply chains and world economic recovery.

“The reality is the US is determined to use chips as a tool to contain China,” Gu Wenjun, head of Chinese chip researcher ICwise, wrote in an online commentary. “There is no possibility of reconciliation.”

The new US regulations broadly limit chipmakers from selling to China artificial intelligence semiconductors and those that can be used for supercomputers. Nvidia Corp. warned in September that government restrictions on exporting AI chips to China could affect hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, sending its stock tumbling. Chipmakers can request a Commerce Department exception to those rules. But they should presume such requests will be denied, senior officials said.

Commerce also put in place a raft of restrictions on supplying US machinery that’s capable of making advanced semiconductors. It’s targeting the types of memory and logic chips that are at the heart of state-of-the-art designs.

Specifically, the restrictions cover production of logic chips using so-called nonplanar transistors made with 16-nanometer technology or anything more advanced than that, 18-nanometer dynamic random access memory chips and Nand-style flash memory chips with 128 layers or more (the smaller the number of nanometers, the more capable the chip).

Stacy Rasgon and a team from Sanford C. Bernstein explained the restrictions on AI, supercomputers and advanced chip-making equipment, while pointing out that the standard CPUs used in personal computers and servers would not be blocked from export to China, as some had feared.

“The changes represent a further escalation, and we do not know what China might do in response,” the Bernstein analysts wrote. “Potential retaliation remains a risk.”

Well there is always an invasion or blockade of Taiwan, just as Biden is doing his best to drain the “emergency” petroleum reserve to win a few Democratic votes.

Finally, as Bloomberg notes, one key question is how the US rules will affect the ability of companies like ASML to sell into China. The Dutch company is effectively the most important supply chain company for chipmakers around the world.

ASML has had to strike a challenging balance between the US and China. It has been selling its deep ultraviolet, or DUV, machines to Chinese customers, but has held back from selling its more advanced extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, machines. Under the new Commerce Department restrictions, the company may be limited from selling DUV technology to Chinese customers too, Citigroup analysts wrote.

“We are assessing the potential implications of the new regulations, if any, and cannot comment at this moment,” said Monique Mols, a spokesperson for ASML.

According to Patel of SemiAnalysis, the unverified list is a serious threat to China’s tech ambitions. In the past, the Commerce Department cut off access to critical technologies for companies like Huawei when they were added to the so-called entity list, meaning the agency had gathered evidence against them. The unverified list simply means the Commerce Department can’t verify that a company’s activities are safe.

“That is huge,” he said. “They can pretty much blacklist any company they want in China within two months.”

Here are some more kneejerk reactions from Wall Street analysts, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Bernstein

  • “The changes represent a further escalation, and we do not know what China might to do in response”; notes risk that China may retaliate
  • The restriction on YMTC may impact Lam Research the most, though Western Digital will benefit from reduced competition
  • “We do not believe the new rules generally include export controls on standard CPUs”

Morgan Stanley

  • “We saw the controls around graphics and equipment sales to China sovereign customers we had expected, but rules adding broader restrictions around supercomputers and multinational fabs in China could be disruptive”
  • “The intent to slow down military supercomputers is clear, but there is potential for a protracted slowdown in adjacent markets as well,” and this could create risk for the compute supply chain in the first half of 2023, possibly impacting companies like Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Marvell, and Broadcom

Citi

  • The new rules could lead to DUV lithography restrictions to China and new data center processor restrictions
  • “While US restrictions could make development of China’s advanced semiconductor technologies even more challenging, they should increase Chinese semiconductor companies’ propensity to purchase domestic equipment”

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

TWO BIGGIES

FIRST:

UK/BANK OF ENGLAND

Wow that ended quickly.  The BOE pivots again by widening the scope of its daily gilt purchase operations by boosting not shrinking.  This operation supposedly ends this Friday but we doubt it. Yesterday you will recall that 10 year gilts rose in yield  (lowered in price) by 14 yield basis pts instead of rising because of their announced QE. The Bank of England is trapped

(zerohedge)

BOE Expands Bond Buying Program Amid Historic Bond Rout To End “Fire Sale” And Halt Market “Dysfunction”

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 07:33 AM

Last week we cautioned readers that the market “calm” was set to end this coming Friday when the BOE’s bond buying program was coming to an end, while making it clear that there would be no actual end as the Bank of England is by now completely trapped, and any end to QE would spark a crash, and if anything the central bank would do more not less.

Well, just two days later we found out just how trapped the BOE has become, when early on Tuesday morning the Bank of England announced that it would widen the scope of its daily gilt purchase operations – boosting not shrinking the moral hazard that got us here – to include purchases of index-linked gilts – technically, it said it would “temporarily absorb selling of index-linked gilts in excess of market intermediation capacity” – as “a further backstop to restore orderly market conditions”, following yesterday’s epic bond rout which shouldn’t have happened, and yet it did.

The central bank, whose purchases have dried up as nobody actually wants to sell to it as long as it is in the market but the moment it steps away there is an insta-crisis, said it was prepared to buy up to £5bn a day in index-linked UK government bonds as it warned of “dysfunction” in the gilt market. Its new intervention marks the first time it has purchased index-linked debt as part of its bond-buying schemes.

As Bloomberg notes, the decision to buy index-linked securities is unusual for the central bank, which only bought conventional gilts during previous rounds of quantitative easing. The BOE said on Tuesday that it will allocate up to £5 billion ($5.51 billion) to conventional gilts and £5 billion to index-linked gilts at each remaining buyback.

The latest measures, which were announced just before the opening of markets in London, came just a day after the BoE unveiled a new short-term funding program that it hoped would act as a pressure release valve for pension schemes that have been caught up in a vicious circle after chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s September 23 “mini” Budget set off a historic sell-off in gilts.

“Two interventions in 24 hours is pretty extraordinary,” said Sandra Holdsworth, UK head of rates at Aegon Asset Management, adding that the BoE’s steps showed how the problem in the pension industry was “much bigger than anyone thought a week ago.”

As we noted yesterday, the BoE’s emergency bond-buying scheme, which was launched on September 28, initially helped soothe jittery markets but selling picked up strongly on Monday when the US bond market was closed as analysts and investors worried about the program’s looming end date on Friday, just as we warned it would.

“The beginning of this week has seen a further significant repricing of UK government debt, particularly index-linked gilts. Dysfunction in this market, and the prospect of self-reinforcing ‘fire sale’ dynamics, pose a material risk to UK financial stability,” the bank said.

Inflation-linked gilts, which according to the FT is a market dominated by defined benefit pension schemes, came under particularly acute selling pressure on Monday. The 10-year yield had surged 0.64 percentage points to 1.24%, the biggest rise since at least 1992. Monday’s sell-off set a gloomy tone ahead of a £900mn 30-year inflation-linked gilt sale by the Debt Management Office due to take place on Tuesday.

Following the BoE’s intervention, the sale attracted solid demand, but the DMO paid the highest inflation-adjusted borrowing cost for any debt since 2008, with the bond pricing at a real yield of 1.55 per cent. Markets were steadier on Tuesday with the 10-year inflation-linked gilt yield falling back by 0.16 percentage points.

On Monday, conventional gilts also sustained a fresh bout of selling pressure that brought 30-year government borrowing costs to the highest level since the BoE announced its bond-purchasing scheme in September.

Separately, the BoE on Monday increased the limit on its daily bond purchases to £10bn, from £5bn previously. It kept that overall cap intact on Tuesday, but said it would buy as much as £5bn a day in conventional gilts and £5bn in index-linked gilts until the programme expires on Friday. Ironically, so far the central bank has only used a small portion of the total £65bn that it has allotted to bond buying; of course that will change the moment the bank steps away from the bid sparking an avalanche of selling.

The yield on 10-year inflation-linked securities dropped as much as 12 basis points after the BOE announcement, while a sale of £900 million of inflation-linked 30-year bonds from the government then saw strong investor appetite. Conventional debt initially also rallied, before paring gains, showing sentiment is still fragile.

While the BOE has stressed that it’ll stop a disorderly market from threatening the UK’s financial stability, investors warn the repeated interventions are coming at a cost of the central bank’s credibility. In the view of strategists, there’s little that the central bank can do to repair investor confidence shattered by government U-turns and risky policy.

“The BOE is clearly playing gilt selloff whack-a-mole,” said Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING Groep NV.

“The policy of consistently acting at the last minute without putting a more credible long-term plan in place is unnerving for markets.”

“The root cause of the problem is that investor confidence in UK Plc has been shaken and the BOE is attempting to mask the symptoms of that given it can do nothing to address the cause,” said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank.

What Antoine may not get, however, is that there is no “credible long-term plan” when one tries to pull the monetary heroin to a market that is overly addicted, without sending the patient into a coma. And the sooner markets realize just how trapped central banks truly are – something Bank of America’s Marc Cabana touched upon recently in ‘”Treasury Market Breakdown Is At Risk” – the faster we can get back to the zombie economy new normal that can’t possibly change without the much-anticipated great reset.

end

THEN: B. of E’s Baily sparked market chaos with a pension fund threat!. Tomorrow will be on helluva morning.

(zerohedge)

BoE’s Bailey Sparks Market Chaos With Pension Fund Threat

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 02:58 PM

After doubling-down on its pension fund bailout scheme, BoE’s Bailey spoke in Washington this afternoon, initially warning that “market volatility went beyond  bank stress tests” (which is scary), then reinforcing the “serious risk to UK financial system stability,” noting that the buying program is “temporary”.

But the piece de resistance was his noting that BoE will be out by the end of the week, adding a simple threat…

“My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now,” Bailey said at an event in Washington on Tuesday.

“You’ve got to get this done. The essence of financial stability, is that it (intervention) is temporary. It’s not prolonged.”

Or what?

Our tweet says it all…(Roughly translated: ‘you have 3 days to sell everything’)…

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“The way that the bank has structured this intervention is they can only buy assets if people put offers into them, but nobody is putting offers in,” said Craig Inches, head of rates and cash at Royal London Asset Management.

He said the pension funds would rather sell their riskier assets, including corporate bonds or property.

“If they sell gilts now, they’re doing it in the likelihood that they’ll need to buy them back in the future at some point and they might be more expensive, and that’s unhelpful,” he said.

And the markets reacted how one would imagine…

Stocks puked…

Cable was hammered lower…

And Treasuries were dumped…

Tomorrow morning in the UK is gonna be a shitshow!

All of which means…

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SWITZERLAND/CREDIT SUISSE

Goldman Sachs suggests a $8 billion capital shortfall. They have a derivative mess on their hands

(zerohedge)

Credit Suisse Slides After Goldman Suggests $8 Billion Capital Shortfall

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 09:00 AM

The last week has seen Credit Suisse’s stock price rallying despite an ongoing increase in the market’s perception of the embattled bank’s credit risk.

However, after a Goldman Sachs report overnight assessing CS’ strategic options, share prices are sliding back down towards credit’s reality…

“Credit Suisse continues to face cyclical and structural challenges,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note, maintaining a sell recommendation on the stock.

Weaker earnings coupled with RWA inflation and the risk of continued litigation and restructuring costs, create capital pressures.

Disposals may provide some relief, but sector P/B multiples are at depressed levels: we estimate a sale of Securitized Products could improve 2023/24E CET1% by 30-33bps. Overall, we estimate a potential capital shortfall of CHF4-8bn in 2024 when analysing CS’ capital position given various CET1 targets and litigation/restructuring costs, and in our base case (no restructuring), 2024E CET1 excess falls to CHF3bn.

Given our view that the IB requires restructuring while capital generation is minimal, we now view an equity raise as prudent to preserve a buffer.

Goldman’s comments were echoed by Jefferies analyst Flora Bocahut, who said in a note on Tuesday that Credit Suisse needs to build about 9 billion Swiss francs of capital in the next two-to-three years.

But given the dilutive nature of a capital increase, Bocahut expects it to prioritize asset disposals, she wrote in a note.

Bloomberg News reported Friday that bidders are lining up for the bank’s securitized products unit, a key pillar in the downsizing of its investment banking operations.

Given market conditions and the fact that Credit Suisse is a “forced seller at the moment,” Vontobel analyst Andreas Venditti is “pretty sure they’re not going to get the highest bids one would wish for in this environment,” he said by phone.

The sale process, which is far advanced, has drawn interest from Pimco, Sixth Street and an investor group including Centerbridge Partners.

As the bank tries to avoid what would be an expensive capital raising, it is also exploring the sale of the Mandarin Oriental Savoy Zurich, Bloomberg News reported last week.

END

More troubles for Credit Suisse

(zerohedge)

Credit Suisse Faces DoJ ‘Tax Evasion’ Probe

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 12:11 PM

Update (1215ET): Credit Suisse just can’t catch a break as, on top of all the systemic fragility and financial instability, Bloomberg reports the US Justice Department is investigating whether CS continued to help US clients hide assets from authorities, eight years after the bank paid a $2.6 billion tax-evasion settlement and pledged to tackle the issue.

The Justice Department has examined allegations raised by whistleblowers who said Credit Suisse bankers “continued to assist additional Americans with concealing assets from the United States after 2014,” according to a court filing last November.

“Despite recent tough talk from DOJ about holding repeat corporate offenders accountable, nothing has happened to Credit Suisse,” said Jeffrey Neiman, an attorney for the whistleblowers.

“They have gotten away with lying to the United States at the expense of the American taxpayer.”

The Zurich-based bank denies improper conduct, and says it’s cooperating with US authorities.

“Credit Suisse does not tolerate tax evasion,” the bank said in a statement.

“We have implemented extensive enhancements since 2014, to root out individuals who seek to conceal assets from tax authorities. Our clear policy is to close undeclared accounts when identified, and to discipline any employee who fails to comply with bank policy or falls short of Credit Suisse’s high standards of conduct.”

Never mind the denials, investors are selling first…

The investigations add pressure on a bank seeking to deliver a strategy that will revamp its risk culture, downsize its unprofitable investment bank and return it to profitability.

*  *  *

The last week has seen Credit Suisse’s stock price rallying despite an ongoing increase in the market’s perception of the embattled bank’s credit risk.

However, after a Goldman Sachs report overnight assessing CS’ strategic options, share prices are sliding back down towards credit’s reality…

“Credit Suisse continues to face cyclical and structural challenges,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note, maintaining a sell recommendation on the stock.

Weaker earnings coupled with RWA inflation and the risk of continued litigation and restructuring costs, create capital pressures.

Disposals may provide some relief, but sector P/B multiples are at depressed levels: we estimate a sale of Securitized Products could improve 2023/24E CET1% by 30-33bps. Overall, we estimate a potential capital shortfall of CHF4-8bn in 2024 when analysing CS’ capital position given various CET1 targets and litigation/restructuring costs, and in our base case (no restructuring), 2024E CET1 excess falls to CHF3bn.

Given our view that the IB requires restructuring while capital generation is minimal, we now view an equity raise as prudent to preserve a buffer.

Goldman’s comments were echoed by Jefferies analyst Flora Bocahut, who said in a note on Tuesday that Credit Suisse needs to build about 9 billion Swiss francs of capital in the next two-to-three years.

But given the dilutive nature of a capital increase, Bocahut expects it to prioritize asset disposals, she wrote in a note.

Bloomberg News reported Friday that bidders are lining up for the bank’s securitized products unit, a key pillar in the downsizing of its investment banking operations.

Given market conditions and the fact that Credit Suisse is a “forced seller at the moment,” Vontobel analyst Andreas Venditti is “pretty sure they’re not going to get the highest bids one would wish for in this environment,” he said by phone.

The sale process, which is far advanced, has drawn interest from Pimco, Sixth Street and an investor group including Centerbridge Partners.

As the bank tries to avoid what would be an expensive capital raising, it is also exploring the sale of the Mandarin Oriental Savoy Zurich, Bloomberg News reported last week.

end

SWITZERLAND/USA

They are panicking!! Fed quietly sends $3.1 billion to Switzerland and no doubt the recipient is Credit Suisse

(zerohedge)

Funding Panic Imminent? Fed Quietly Sends $3.1 Billion To Switzerland Via Swap Line

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 03:34 PM

BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett has a favorite markets phrase that may be the only one a trader in this day and age needs: “Markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking.”

Well, in what may be the best news to shellshocked bulls after the worst September and worst Q3 in generations, in a harrowing year for markets, central banks are starting to panic. First it was the BOJ, then the BOE and now, it’s Switzerland’s turn.

Two weeks ago after the (first) panicked pivot by the BOE, when global markets were in freefall, we said that markets desperately needed some words of encouragement from the Fed, or failing that – and with the dollar soaring to new all time highs every day – the Fed had to make some pre-emptive announcement on USD Fx swap lines, if only to reassure global markets that amid this historic, US dollar short squeeze, at least someone can and will print as many as are needed to avoid systemic collapse.

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Fast forward two weeks when there still hasn’t been any formal announcement from the Fed, but every so quietly – and just as we expected – the Fed shuttled $3.1 billion to the Swiss National Bank to cover an emergency dollar shortfall.

Remarkably, this was the first time the Fed sent dollars to the SNB this year, and the first time the Fed used the swap line in size (besides a token amount to the ECB every now and then)!

The next logical question obviously is: why does Switzerland suddenly have a financial institution needing $3 billion in cheap (3.33%) overnight funding. We don’t know the answer, but have a pretty good idea of who the culprit may be.

And speaking of the coming crisis, recall what we said at the start of September: the coming Fed pivot will have nothing to do with whether the Fed hits or doesn’t hit its inflation target, and everything to do with the devastation unleashed by the soaring dollar (a record margin call to the tune of some $20 trillion) on the rest of the world.

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Today, none other than Bob Michele, the outspoken chief investment officer of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, told everyone that we were right: as paraphrased by Bloomberg, Bob said “the relentless dollar could forge a path to the next market upheaval.”

Michele has been in de-risking mode, sitting on a pile of cash which is near the highest level he has held in 10 years. And he is long the dollar. While a market crisis sparked by the greenback is not his base case, it’s a tail risk that he is monitoring closely.

Here’s how it could happen: Foreigners have snapped up dollar-denominated assets for higher yields, safety, and a brighter earnings outlook than most markets. A big chunk of those purchases are hedged back into local currencies such as the euro and the yen through the derivatives market, and it involves shorting the dollar. When the contracts roll, investors have to pay up if the dollar moves higher. That means they may have to sell assets elsewhere to cover the loss.

“I get concerned that a much stronger dollar will create a lot of pressure, particularly in hedging US dollar assets back to local currencies,” Michele said in an interview. “When the central bank steps on the brakes, something goes through the windshield. The cost of financing has gone up and it will create tension in the system.”

The market probably saw some of that pressure already: as we noted at the time, investment-grade credit spreads spiked close to 20 basis points toward the end of September. That’s coincidental with a lot of currency hedges rolling over at the end of the third quarter, he said — and it may be just “the tip of an iceberg.

So far so good: and where we agree especially with Michele is what he thinks happens next: as Bloomberg writes, “the central bank will be so committed to combating inflation that it will keep raising rates and won’t pause or reverse course unless something really bad happens to markets or the economy, or both. If policy makers pause in response to market functionality, there has to be such a shock to the system that it creates potential insolvencies. And a rising dollar might do just that.”

And the fact that the Fed is already quietly shuttling billions of dollars to various central banks to plug dollar overnight funding holes, confirms that the rising dollar has already done just that.

EU/USA/FED

Now we see open revolt from Europe against the rise in the uSA dollar. Europe lashes out at the Fed for bringing the world into recession

(zerohedge)

Here Comes The Open Revolt: A Reeling Europe Lashes Out At The Fed For “Bringing Us To A World Recession”

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 08:40 PM

As a result of the Fed’s relentless tightening blitz, which on November 2 will have hiked rates by 75bps on four occasions in just 96 trading days, the fastest tightening campaign since Volcker, both US capital markets (the S&P 500 is down -24%, for the 4th worst year on record, only 1931, 1974, and 2002 were worse; and 10Y TSYs are down -17% for the worst year on record… 1987 second worse, and bonds were down -10%) and the US economy have been left reeling.

However, the damage in the US – whose economy is relatively isolated from the knock-on (or is that out) effects of the soaring global reserve currency – are nothing compared to the devastation unleashed by the Fed in the form of the soaring dollar and exploding interest rates. And yet the outcry against either the Soros Biden administration, or chair Powell has been relatively muted (excluding the occasional scathing oped in China’s Global Times and fake populist rage-tweet by everyone’s favorite “native American“, Liz Warren). To be sure, this was to be expected: after all, the last thing central banks need, when they are seeking to effect an extremely unpopular global economic recession that will leave millions without a job (think inflation is bad? just wait until you have no job and inflation is still bad) is growing discord among the ranks of the technocrats who have a simple script: no matter how unpopular or stupid a given policy is, you never, never, disagree in public, as this risks sparking popular outrage and toppling the entire house of cards at the hands of a suddenly very angry public.

At least that was the case until now: because today, in a startling outcry breaching the unspoken protocol of “no dissent, never dissent”, Josep Borrell, the high representative of the 27-member EU bloc, lashed out all too publicly at the Fed when he said that central banks (across Europe where the recession will be far, far worse than in the US) are being forced to follow the Fed’s multiple rate rises to prevent their currencies from slumping against the dollar, and compared the US central bank’s influence to Germany’s dominance of European monetary policy before the creation of the euro.

Of course, back then the solution to the super deutsche mark was simple: pool all nations under a common currency umbrella, even if it means misery for the less productive, and less mercantilist countries (hence the neverending European sovereign debt crisis which remains in hibernation only thanks to the ECB’s bond buying). This time however, there is no simple solution taking advantage of gullible states, instead now that they’ve broken the seal of silence, the “leaders” of Europe admit to just how powerless they truly are when the custodian of the world’s reserve currency has to do what’s best only for itself, allies and friends be damned:

“Everybody has to follow, because otherwise their currency will be [devalued],” Borrell said to an audience of EU ambassadors, the FT reported. “Everybody is running to increase interest rates, this will bring us to a world recession.”

The comments which the FT defined as “unguarded” but  were very much pre-cleared with all the proper officials, came in a wide-ranging speech in which he also criticized the EU for failing to listen to foreign countries and seeking to “export” its governance model and standards on to others, and admitted that the bloc failed to anticipate Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine despite what the FT called “warnings from Washington”, because of course for the FT to mention Trump, or heaven forbid, admit he was right, would be inconceivable.

Borrell’s carefully chosen words on US monetary policy followed the World Bank’s warning last month that rate rises by multiple central banks could trigger a global downturn in 2023, as it argued the “degree of synchronicity” by central banks was unlike anything seen in five decades.

Yes, the artificial facade of calm agreement propping up the world’s most aggressive tightening cycle in history is starting to crack and quite violently at that.

Borell’s warnings come as the World Bank and IMF kick off a week of joint meetings in Washington, where officials will discuss the multiple threats to the global economy. The fund is expected to downgrade its global economic forecasts for the fourth consecutive quarter.

And as a growing chorus of angry voices rises to warn the Fed against even more aggressive tightening, it appears that the message is finally seeping through: top Fed officials have recently more directly acknowledged that their campaign to tighten monetary policy risks creating “spillovers” that could jeopardize weaker economies, and all other economies too. But they underscore that their chief concern remains bringing US inflation under control, suggesting that the global ramifications of their plans are secondary considerations.

Maybe not: Lael Brainard, vice-chair of the Fed, on Monday said that while the US central bank should continue raising rates it must do so “deliberately and in a data-dependent manner” due to “elevated global economic and financial uncertainty”. Her comments were enough to push risk assets sharply off their session lows, even if they have since slumped back.

She added that the Fed “takes into account the spillovers of higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, and weaker demand from foreign economies”. Last month she highlighted the risks posed to highly indebted emerging markets as borrowing costs rapidly rise.

As the FT notes, the Fed’s crushing influence over current monetary policy trends mirrored the situation in Europe before the euro, when countries were forced to follow the policies of Germany’s Bundesbank, said Borrell. “You had to do it. Even if it was not the right policy for your internal reasons.” Of course, the alternative, the Euro was an even worse disaster: at least in the DEM days, European countries could devalue their way out of a fiscal crisis; with the common currency they all have to beg the ECB for bond-buying mercy or else be forced to install another pro-European puppet prime minister.

END

EUROPE//ENERGY

Michael Snyder, on Europe’s energy mess!

(Michael Snyder)

The Energy Crisis In Europe Is So Bad That Some People Are Thinking Of Using Horse Poop To Heat Their Homes This Winter

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Europe is facing an extremely cold winter that will be filled with energy shortages, blackouts and absurdly high power bills.  All across the continent, ordinary people can see what is coming, and many of them are starting to panic.  Demand for wood stoves is off the charts, and many Europeans are hoarding wood and other materials to burn in their existing wood stoves during the bitterly cold months ahead. 

We truly are in unprecedented territory, and things are about to start getting really crazy out there.

If you live in Europe and you haven’t purchased a wood stove yet, it is probably already too late to get one for the beginning of winter.

It is being reported that any stoves ordered now could take “months to deliver”, and prices for wood pellets have almost doubled…

As much as 70% of European heating comes from natural gas and electricity, and with Russian deliveries drastically reduced, wood — already used by some 40 million people for heating — has become a sought-after commodity.

Prices for wood pellets have nearly doubled to 600 euros a ton in France, and there are signs of panic buying of the world’s most basic fuel. Hungary even went so far as to ban exports of pellets, and Romania capped firewood prices for six months. Meanwhile, wood stoves can now take months to deliver.

With wood and wood pellets being so expensive, some people in Europe are considering “other options” that once would have been unthinkable.

For example, we are being told that some Europeans are actually contacting local chimney sweeps to inquire about the possibility of burning horse poop in their stoves…

Inexperience is also evident in Germany, where the country’s association of chimney sweeps is dealing with a flood of requests to connect new and old stoves, and customers are inquiring about burning horse dung and other obscure fuels.

If you were cold enough, would you burn horse poop in order to stay warm?

Under normal conditions, no rational person would do such a thing.

But at this point, Europeans can see that they may not be able to rely on their national power grids this winter.

In fact, one top EU official is openly warning that energy shortages could lead to widespread blackouts in the months ahead

The European Union could face blackouts this winter as the continent faces an ongoing energy crisis amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, but Brussels is preparing for worst-case scenarios, according to EU Crisis Management Commissioner Janez Lenarčič.

Asked in an interview published Tuesday by Germany’s RND media network whether EU countries would need disaster relief due to the energy crisis, Lenarčič responded: “Yes, that is quite possible.”

Sadly, this is true even in Germany.

The Germans have the largest economy in the EU by a wide margin, but their leaders are publicly acknowledging that Germany “may run out of gas” at some point by the end of the winter…

German Federal Economy Minister Robert Habeck expressed concern over the looming energy crisis this winter, telling German media that the situation was extremely tense and there is a possibility that Germany may run out of gas.

Habeck spoke on Friday, appealing to Germans to reduce their consumption of natural gas ahead of this winter a day after the German government launched a new price break programme to help Germans with the rising costs of energy.

And whoever bombed the NordStream pipeline system made sure that Russia would not be able to come to the rescue by providing much needed natural gas at a critical moment.

Germans desperately need to cut back if rationing is to be avoided, but here we are just weeks away from severely cold weather and that is still not happening

The head of Germany’s Federal Network Agency, which would be in charge of gas rationing in the event of a supply emergency, repeated his warning a week ago that consumption was too high.

“We will struggle to avoid a gas emergency this winter without at least 20% savings in private households, businesses and industry,” Klaus Mueller of the Bundesnetzagentur told Reuters.

“The situation may become very serious if we do not significantly reduce our gas consumption,” he added.

The situation in the UK is quite dire as well.

Last week, a warning that the British people could potentially face three hour rolling blackouts this winter made headlines all over the globe

Households could experience a series of three-hour power cuts this winter if Vladimir Putin shuts off gas supplies from Russia and Britain experiences a cold snap, National Grid has warned.

Such an event would mean consumers in different parts of the country being notified a day in advance of three-hour blocks of time during which their power would be cut off, in an effort to reduce total consumption by 5%.

What would you do if the power went out for three hours on one of the coldest days of the year?

You might want to think about that.

Here in the United States, it appears unlikely that we will face energy shortages this winter, but heating costs will definitely surge to record highs as energy prices continue to soar all over the planet.

And we definitely do not want prices to go higher, because approximately 20 million Americans are already behind on their power bills…

At least 20 million households — or about 1 in 6 American homes — are behind on their power bills as soaring electricity prices spark what is said to be the worst-ever crisis in late utility payments, according to Bloomberg, citing data from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada).

Neada said electricity prices had increased significantly since 2020 after a decade of stagnation. The steep rise has resulted in billions of dollars in overdue power bills.

The greatest energy crisis in any of our lifetimes is here, and it is setting the stage for the kind of historic economic meltdown of epic proportions that so many prominent voices have warned would be coming.

The price of energy has already gotten so high that some major European manufacturers have already been forced to shut down operations.

If energy costs make it impossible to operate profitably, the only logical thing to do is to close up shop until energy costs come back down.

But they aren’t going to come back down any time soon.

Europe is truly entering a new “Dark Ages”, and right now there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

*  *  *

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FRANCE

Unbelievable;  France to spend 100 billion euros to fight inflation???

(zerohedge)

France To Spend €100 Billion To… Fight Inflation

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 04:15 AM

This is so stupid (if only because California is the first to try it) that we won’t even comment on it any more suffice to say that no, spending 100 billion euros to fight inflation…. won’t work.

Source: Reuters

The only question worth pursuing at this point is whether they are really that stupid, or if this all a planned demolition, in which the idiot public is supposed to just swallow everything and believe all the lies.

END

FRANCE:

a must must view…

France is not a good place to be these days as a tourist or for business

Robert Hryniak6:15 PM (5 hours ago)
to

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video Gravitas: Anti-NATO protests erupt in Paris

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IRELAND/ENGLAND

Ireland’s total unification movement is gaining steam

(zerohedge)

Ireland Unification Movement Gaining Steam

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 02:45 AM

It’s been just over a century since Ireland was divided into two political entities, and an increasing number of people in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland think it’s time to join together as one nation.    

In a recent indicator of the growing momentum, 5,000 people packed a Dublin Arena on Oct. 1 for a symposium called “Preparing for a New And United Ireland.” Organized by the advocacy group “Ireland’s Future,” the live-streamed event aimed to cultivate support for unification and encourage discussion of practical questions about how a single Ireland might be structured.  

Today the Emerald Isle is divided into the 26-county Republic of Ireland and six-county, UK-ruled Northern Ireland. 

The United Kingdom is compelled by the terms of the Good Friday Agreement to call a referendum in Northern Ireland when it appears that a majority supports unification.    

Such a referendum on Irish unity now seems an inevitability — but that’s not to say it’s imminent. An August poll found “only” 41% of those in Northern Ireland support unity. However, that’s 10 percentage points higher than it was a decade ago. In the republic, unification is backed by 61%. 

The 1998 Good Friday Agreement largely extinguished “The Troubles” — some 30 years of violence between Catholic nationalists seeking the island’s complete liberation from British rule and Protestant unionists who want Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK.  

Today, several factors are nudging public opinion toward unification, including:

  • Shifting Northern Ireland demographics. New census results in September revealed that, for the first time, Northern Ireland now has more Catholics than Protestants. At the same time, there’s a growing mutual tolerance, even as physical barriers between neighborhoods remain. 
  • Resentment over Brexit. In the 2016 referendum, 56% of Northern Ireland voters supported remaining in the European Union. The Republic of Ireland is an EU member, offering an avenue back into the block.
  • Northern Ireland’s lagging economy. In an inversion of a long-standing relationship, the Republic of Ireland is now markedly more prosperous than Northern Ireland. The North also significantly lags the rest of the UK in employment, income and productivity. 

Via the Financial Times

Remarkably, Sinn Féin — the political party with roots in the militant Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA) — became the top party in Northern Ireland in May elections. In the republic, Sinn Féin leads the opposition, and seems destined to take the reins. Party leaders think a referendum should happen within five to 10 years.  

The movement toward Northern Ireland’s secession from the United Kingdom comes as Scotland is moving steadily toward a new independence referendum of its own, possibly in October 2023. (Britain’s top court is considering whether a secession vote may occur without the UK government’s approval.) 

For those who cheer on the decentralization of power, the two movements are a mixed bag, given each one draws considerable strength from a desire to receive orders from EU headquarters in Brussels.

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GERMANY

This is now Germany proposes to distribute 200 billion euros in gas subsidies.

(zerohedge)

German “Expert Panel” Proposes 2-Stage System For Distributing €200 Billion In Gas Price Subsidies

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 05:45 AM

A German government-appointed expert panel on Monday proposed a two-stage system for distributing some of the up to €200 billion in subsidies Germany recently announced (and sparked outrage across Europe in the process) to ease the strain of high energy prices, a plan that the group said would still encourage people to save gas, but will merely subsidize even more gas purchases and in a supply-constrained environment, lead to even higher inflation (especially when paired with Russian “price caps”).

According to AP, the panel suggested that the state take on the cost of natural gas customers’ monthly bill in December, followed by a price subsidy for part of their consumption starting next spring. That “gas and heating price brake” would kick in next March and apply until April 2024, panel co-chair Veronika Grimm said. Private gas customers would pay 0.12 euros per kilowatt hour for the first 80% of the amount they used in 2021.

That “corresponds roughly to the price level that is expected in the future,” Grimm said, telling reporters in Berlin that the plan aims to introduce a “new normal” but prevent price rises beyond that…. whatever that is.

“It’s not going to be the case that the price goes back down to 7 cents in the future — we won’t receive Russian gas for a long time.”

Grimm argued that the plan still incentivizes people to save gas, because people who do so will avoid paying higher prices beyond the cap level. She also noted that Germany, which has Europe’s biggest economy, needs to reduce its previous gas consumption by about 20% to prevent a potential shortage this winter, which will never happen voluntarily and will required forced rationing throughout the winter, i.e., rolling blackouts.

Co-chair Siegfried Russwurm, the head of the Federation of German Industries, said the proposal foresees businesses paying 0.07 euros per kilowatt hour for 70% of their 2021 gas use, starting at the beginning of January. Russwurm said that gas price rises are posing an “existential” threat to an increasing number of companies.

“This is not just about the fate of individual companies and their jobs; it is about the strength and the export successes of German industry, because they are the backbone of the German economy,” he said.

The panel, which included representatives of industry and labor unions, scientists and lawmakers, earlier Monday presented its conclusions to Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the country’s economy and finance ministers. It put the cost of the proposed gas price subsidies at about 90 billion euros.

Many European countries have proposed similar subsidies on fossil fuels, prices for which have increased sharply worldwide in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. But many of Germany’s neighbors have criticized the huge sum Berlin is setting aside, arguing that it will price others out of the market.

In fact, the reason why today German bund yields exploded higher is because Bloomberg reported that Germany had conceded to peer pressure and agreed to joint and mutual bond issuance in Europe, in effect federalizing the continent at Germany’s expense. It took Germans about two hours to fully reverse and argue that was never planned once they saw the bloodbath across the German bond sector.

Scholz has argued that the criticism is based on a misunderstanding of his government’s plans and says Germany’s subsidy will prevent a shortage of gas that might occur under a system of enforced price caps proposed by other countries. He also has noted that it applies to a relatively long period. Nobody believed him for the simple reason that he is, in fact, lying and having Europe’s largest and richest economy, he is willing to throw all of his peer overboard if it means Germans have a realtively warm winter.

The government will “work very quickly on implementing the proposals” by the panel, Scholz spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said. He noted that a check on whether they comply with European Union law will be necessary, and said that Germany “will act in European solidarity.”

Russia started reducing gas supplies to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, the main supply route, in June and cut them off completely over a month ago. The pipeline has since been damaged by underwater explosions.

Germany got a bit over a third of its gas supplies from Russia before the supply disruptions started, and previously more than that.

END

EUROPE/NATURAL GAS

Actually natural gas prices in Europe have been falling and now it is at a 3 month low

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Natural Gas Prices In Europe Fall To A Three-Month Low

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • On Monday, Europe’s natural gas prices fell to the lowest level in three months thanks to mild weather and a high level of LNG imports.
  • Natural gas prices were down nearly 8% in early trading in Amsterdam, hitting an intra-day low of $140 per megawatt-hour.
  • Gas storage in the EU is now at more than 90% and the bloc has managed to reduce its gas consumption by 10%

Europe’s natural gas prices dropped on Monday to the lowest level in three months as LNG imports climbed while weather forecasts pointed to a milder-than-expected autumn.

Natural gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub, Europe’s benchmark, were down by nearly 8% in early trade in Amsterdam on Monday. Prices hit an intra-day low of $140 (144 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh), the lowest European benchmark gas price since July 1.

Strong imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into Europe and milder weather over the next week or two are the two key reasons for the dip in gas prices at the beginning of this week. Higher nuclear power generation from France compared to the previous months is also helping electricity supply across the continent, thus curbing some gas demand for power.

Imports of LNG cargoes into northwest Europe have reached their highest level for this time of the year since 2016, per data compiled by Bloomberg. According to Reutersnine LNG tankers are currently expected to arrive in the UK alone by the end of the month.

The three-month low gas prices in Europe today are “driven by strong LNG arrivals, mild autumn weather and demand destruction,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said. Russia’s ability to shock the market has been much reduced, with flows down 78% year over year, Hansen added.

Weather will be mild in most of Europe over the next two weeks, models suggest, which would also alleviate upward pressure on gas demand for heating and electricity.

Meanwhile, EU leaders have yet to agree on some form of capping gas prices after failing to do so at a summit in Prague last week. The EU is negotiating “a corridor for decent prices” with reliable suppliers, or for example, “looking at how to limit prices in the gas market overall,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at the end of last week.

“Gas storage in the EU is now at more than 90%,” the European Commission said this weekend. “Good news: we have already reduced our gas consumption by about 10% but more can still be done,” the Commission says.

END

EUROPE

Europeans are panic buying firewood and stoves

(zerohedge)

“Back To The Old Days”: Europeans Panic Buy Firewood And Stoves

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 06:55 AM

As natural gas and electricity prices soar, many European households turn to firewood, a move to offset higher energy costs as the heating season begins. Rising demand for firewood is sending much of Europe back to the ‘medieval’ days of using stoves and fireplaces to heat homes. 

The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline system underneath the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany sparked even more energy uncertainty among Germans as many brace for what could be the coldest and possibly even the darkest winter in a generation due to rising risks of power blackouts. 

On Friday, European Union leaders failed to agree on a price cap for NatGas as the energy crisis might worsen this winter as freezing weather could quickly draw down supplies from storage facilities and catapult prices even higher.

About 70% of Europeans use NatGas to heat their homes, and according to Bloomberg, some 40 million people are now burning wood to heat their homes. New demand for a heat source that’s been around for ages has doubled the price of wood pellets per ton to 600 euros in France. 

Bloomberg pointed out Europeans are “panic buying the world’s most basic fuel.” Demand is so high that Hungary banned exports of wood pellets, and Romania capped firewood prices through spring.

“It’s back to the old days when people wouldn’t have the whole house heated,” said Nic Snell, managing director at British wholesale firewood retailer Certainly Wood. He added firewood is in high demand. 

The boom for firewood has also meant stove demand is high. Gabriel Kakelugnar AB, a manufacturer of high-end tiled stoves, said orders had surged more than fourfold, and customers have to wait until March for delivery. 

Firewood has become a scarce commodity this heating season, forcing some households to burn anything they can find: 

“We are worried that people will just burn what they can get their hands on,” Roger Sedin, head of the air quality unit at the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, said. 

In fact, this is true, Polish households have started to burn trash and coal as firewood supplies dwindle. 

The UK has finally come around to informing its citizens about power blackout risks. The country’s grid operator warned about the “significant risk” of NatGas shortage that could trigger three-hour power cuts this winter

Well before the heating season, we detailed in length about soaring demand for firewood. We noted in August that “Google Searches For “Firewood” In Germany Have Exploded” and even in July cited Deutsche Bank senior economist Eric Heymann who indicated a “substitution for gas” would be firewood. 

Europeans have to ask if soaring electricity bills and a cost-of-living crisis are worth supporting NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine via sanctions against Russia. People in Prague are already tired of Western sanctions that have devastated their economy and financial well-being. 

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

Ukraine Urges Citizens To Limit Electricity Use As Russia Pummels Infrastructure

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 10:05 AM

For a second day following Monday’s largest ever Russian wave of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, air raids sounded frequently in cities throughout the country. Thus far Tuesday has seen a dozen cities attacked, with energy infrastructure being a primary target. Energy facilities in the central Ukraine region of Dnipropetrovsk suffered “serious” damage by the latest Russian strikes, a day after President Vladimir Putin in a televised statement said he ordered attacks on military, energy, and communications targets specifically in response to the weekend Crimea bridge attack.

The damage is already extensive enough that Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has called on Ukrainians to limit their electricity use. Describing that 11 important infrastructure facilities have been damaged in eight regions of Ukraine and Kyiv, Shmyhal announced, “We must be prepared for temporary disruptions of electricity, water supplies and communication.”

“The Russians fired missiles at energy infrastructure in the Pavlograd and Kamian districts. There is serious destruction. Many settlements still do not have electricity,” Dnipropetrovsk regional governor Valentin Reznichenko announced after Tuesday’s Russian salvos.

The Hill describes that in various cities Tuesday “Ukrainians were sent scurrying toward shelters as sirens sounded and mobile phones blared warnings to take cover.” Moscow has confirmed that it is actively targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with the defense ministry issuing the following statement on Telegram: 

“Today, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue launching the massive attack using high-precision long-range air- and sea-based armament at the facilities of military control and energy system of Ukraine.” 

Ukraine’s military says it has continued successfully intercepting many of the long-range missiles – something which had been disputed after Monday’s large-scale assault: “The Ukrainian air force said Russian bombers over the Caspian Sea launched missiles toward Ukraine early Tuesday, but at least four of the missiles were shot down.”

The AFP has called the ongoing Russian operation a “missile blitz” with an aim to compensate for recent significant territorial losses in the east and south.

Additional regional governors and officials have meanwhile confirmed energy facilities were struck Tuesday, as far West as Lviv, including some by Iranian manufactured drones

Maksym Kozytskyi, head of the Lviv regional military administration, said there were “three explosions at two energy facilities in the Lviv region.”

The Ladyzhynska power plant in the west-central city of Vinnytsia was also hit by so-called “kamikaze drones,” according to the plant’s owner, the DTEK Group.

Ukraine’s foreign minister has condemned these strikes as war crimes. On Monday independent connectivity and network monitors confirmed that multiple cities suffered electrical and internet outages…

But it appears many regions have made rapid recoveries as emergency crews struggle to keep the lights on:

Primary targets of Russian strikes are energy facilities. They’ve hit many yesterday [Monday] and they hit the same and new ones today,” FM Dmytro Kuleba Kuleba said on Twitter.

“These are war crimes planned well in advance and aimed at creating unbearable conditions for civilians — Russia’s deliberate strategy since months,” the top Ukrainian diplomat said. All of this also comes amid rising fears that Belarus is preparing to more directly enter the conflict, in a major boost to the Russian side.

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Terror on Crimea Bridge forces Russia to unleash Shock’n Awe

Robert Hryniak5:33 PM (5 hours ago)
to

The reality in the Ukraine is well described in this article and is worth reading.

Because Russia has taken the gloves off and the real hardship of war will hit far beyond the Ukraine as it really, however tragic, is a sideshow in this greater conflict. 

This comes when countries like Britain find themselves boxed in from making moves limiting not just political agendas but inflicting pain on the public. What we have seen recently with British pension funds boxed by leverage by the likes of BlackRock demonstrates the financial fragility, which required the Bank of England to step in to prevent a Pension Fund melt down. This does not bode well going into more turbulent days ahead, where events will cascade by steps and actions already taken allowing little room for maneuver limiting options. 

https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/16704

Now this is something that should not come as a surprise. It is a signal of a break with the EU in the making. Watch for the EU to go into full court hysteria over this decision. Anyone securing natural gas supply like Hungary has done is a net winner amongst the decline being suffered by other EU members paying through the nose for gas and soon oil rendering their industries to shutter. :

Serbia and Hungary will bypass sanctions by building their own oil pipeline

After threats to cut Serbia off from Russian oil (through Croatia), it was decided to build their own oil pipeline through Hungary to Russia.

The pipeline will be called “Friendship”.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Biden Promises Zelensky Further Advanced Air Defense Systems After Attacks | ZeroHedge

Robert Hryniak8:30 PM (2 hours ago)
to

The tragedy of what we are seeing is not just the destruction of infrastructure but the damage of  lives. It matters not where you are in the region death is death and a life destroyed is a loss that cannot be restored. If i am correct the next few days will be quiet until the next Zelensky provocation which will see a greater response. The fight is not with the public but officials of different interest groups. Do not think that Davos/ BlackRock are not aligned against the Fed and Wall Street nor the Neocons who dance with insanity. Everyone else is expendable.

Last week i wrote that US and European nations have issued an evacuation order for their citizens to get out of Ukraine and Belarus. Reason was simple as they knew what was in the works. We are so trusting of officials not acting in the interests of the public. We are watching in slow motion destruction of the lives we all took for granted as Normal. It is why we are seeing a global real estate correction of mass proportion in value. Liquidity is fast disappearing and in the future there will be properties that will have no bid as they did before. Such things are cyclical. Just like in war there is only death and survival; there really are no winners as even survivors are scarred by death and destruction. Just ask anyone who has lived through war. 

Soon we may well see a currency war that will not be masked by other narratives. The derivative collapse occurring in real time is causing many currencies to be side swiped in favor of the USD. 

The German consulate in Kyiv was targeted because Germany has been supplying arms to Zelensky and was set to deliver IRIS-T anti-aircraft systems in the next week. These people have to understand that supplying arms to Ukraine is a provocation for war. The Germans sunk the Lusitania BECAUSE the US was sending arms to Britain using passenger ships to hide those arms shipments. This is the very thing that the US Neocons were hoping for to lie to the people that the Germans sank a passenger ship and omitted the secret arms shipments when promising to be neutral.

Supplying arms to Ukraine instead of trying to seek a peaceful resolution is an invitation to World War. Russia knows what is going on and they know this is not a pure war against Ukraine. The German Foreign Ministry has confirmed that Russia bombed the building housing the German consulate in Kyiv earlier today. That is a Russian warning that they are supplying weapons on a grand scale so perhaps unofficially Germany has also declared war on Russia. Madness yes, but time will tell us. As the EU is showing its’ weaknesses daily now. And the banking woes visible are just the tip of the iceberg, of what is coming unabated. Years of illusion and lies and structural errors in design in the Euro have banded together to produce a devastating storm. 

Certain sources say that there was a meeting ( previously i wrote about this) with Belarus on June 25 where it was agreed that Russia will transfer Iskander-M missiles ( done) that will carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. Belarus is upgrading its Su-25 fighters to carry nuclear weapons. This is not fully out in the press in any detail. Belarus knows the hatred of some Ukrainians toward Russians and they are fully aware that they will have no choice but to resort to nuclear arms at some point. It is why even in small villages they have bomb shelters. They like the Russians have prepared for unthinkable war. The disclosure of 5000 Polish regular army being hit today in the Ukraine only heightens the degree of NATO involvement these days beyond special forces actively deployed. Perhaps the shutdown of Starlink will actually save western lives if people wake up. 

Time will tell and we can only stay informed and pray for peace, otherwise this will become much worse going into 2023. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/large-scale-strikes-many-cities-across-ukraine-response-terrorist-crimea-bridge-blast

END

The long march to a short war

Robert Hryniak10:32 AM (0 minutes ago)
to

As history shows,  it’s always inevitable that the dispute of politics and dreams of hegemony are often decided by war. Today is day two of missile strikes in the Ukraine. And Russian forces have started to take back villages in the Donbas recently abandoned to regroup. The gloves are off and Russian forces will move forward.

No war comes without financial stress not that of the cost of war but what war tries to cover up. Some informed parties are well aware to the myth of Euro strength and the irreparable damage of years of negative interest rates keeping a flawed idea alive. Choices were made and toasts were made to the pipe of Klaus and the Davos crowd who tell you will own nothing and be happy. In their minds you will give up all you have earned for their song and like it. Really it is communism and it always fails because it chooses not to understand human nature. And in the course of failure costs many lives. While politicians imagine following such advice will shelter them from angry mobs. And then of course there is always a convenient villain to blame; Vlad the Impaler and the Russian Orcs or “Snow Niggers” as the DC crowd call them.  Childish yes but that is the same wisdom that wants to punish the Saudis with reckless abandonment.

Enter on to this stage the sad creation of Nuland and fellow Neocons and personal laundry for so many of the DC elite, the Ukraine and its’ inhabitants to be served up as simple cannon fodder to the last one. Exploiting the hatred many Ukrainians were taught; some of which is historical and some that has roots in Nazi idealism left to spawn after WWII. Today the Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe and perhaps the planet. Ask yourself why politicians choose to send money to this nation over that spending money to help their own citizens. Were not such politicians elected by their own citizens and not the Ukraine?  Or do they serve an agenda of others hiding behind the curtain, where the Ukraine and others are simple pawns to be played?

As Zelensky’s pitch today is more weapon systems and more money and perhaps a nuke or two sent to Moscow to show solidarity. Ask yourself why you want to endanger yourself, friends and family in a  nuclear war for such a nation. And then ask why any G7 nation cares about such a rump nation. Surely Ukrainians are no more human than the people killed in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, or Vietnam etc. the fact they are white or Slavic makes them no better. Blood runs red no matter the race, religion or color as we are all humans.

Rome long ago learnt free trade was a security basket of peace and then forgot it. Seemingly we have not learnt much since that time. Today, we have allowed true rapists loose in capital markets running rampant creating mass grief for Pension Funds trapped by leverage to gain yields making market moves catastrophic in nature. As we recently saw in Britain where the Bank of England as the central bank was forced to intervene to prevent the collapse of pension funds. In addition the rising prices in the energy markets in Europe have created a liquidity crisis in excess of 1 1/2 trillion dollars. Liquidity support will be needed there’s no question about that. The real question is where the capital comes from because most free capital thus far has been tied up and margin calls have already been exercised. Expect real issues in the gas and power areas where exposure will sink not only certain European banks but has real potential to cross over into Asian banks. Many people ask the question can you repeat in bank step up to the plate? Perhaps at one time they could have; today with the capital constraints that they have, it is most unlikely.

With financial strife the danger of war grows ever more likely and that is something that should concern us all, as every thing will pale by comparison, if it comes.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues:

GLOBAL ISSUES

World Food Prices Are “Decisively Rolling Over”

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 10:00 PM

Global food prices have been tumbling in the back half of the year after nearly two years of soaring.

Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, tweeted Monday that the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) global food price index has fallen for six consecutive months after the latest monthly decline of 1.1% in September. 

Sonders said global food prices are “decisively rolling over,” though some on Twitter disputed her, as she replied: “Decisive seems appropriate given 6-month change is fastest (worst) since GFC.” 

Others said even though food prices around the world appear to be rolling over, US inflation remains stubbornly high. 

Someone complained: “Sure doesn’t feel like it in the grocery store.” 

“Apparently, our local supermarket hasn’t gotten the message,” another Twitter user said. 

Someone else said: “None reflected in good old Texas where prices continue to go up daily, especially on n all staples. Milk, eggs, meat all up over 20% and still climbing in major chain.” 

One user noted the reversal in prices is “Great news for those facing food insecurity,” though we must add world food prices remain above levels that triggered 2010/11 Arab Spring. 

Recall we pointed out World Food Prices Crash The Most Since 2008 in August. The trend appears welcoming, but the UN warned not too long ago that fertilizer affordability could slash future harvests in the next planting season. 

end

Special thanks to G for sending this to us;

IMF Slashes Global Economic Growth Forecast, Urges Policy-Makers Not To ‘Pivot’

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 09:15 AM

“The worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession,” the lender’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, wrote in a foreword to the report.

“As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand.”

That’s the ominous prelude to The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report as the organization forecasts that, excluding the unprecedented slowdown of 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic, next year’s performance would be the weakest since 2009, in the wake of the global financial crisis.

The IMF cut its forecast for global growth next year to 2.7%, from 2.9% seen in July and 3.8% in January, adding that it sees a 25% probability that growth will slow to less than 2%.

About one third of the global economy risks contracting next year, it said, with the US, European Union and China all continuing to stall.

The IMF reports that the global economy continues to face steep challenges, shaped by the lingering effects of three powerful forces:

  1. the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
  2. a cost-of-living crisis caused by persistent and
  3. broadening inflation pressures, and the slowdown in China.

Notably, while The IMF places the blame for the slowdown at the feet of policy-tightening central banks, it also urges them to stay the course and not pivot…

Central banks around the world are now laser-focused on restoring price stability, and the pace of tightening has accelerated sharply. There are risks of both under- and over-tightening.

Under-tightening would entrench further the inflation process, erode the credibility of central banks, and de-anchor inflation expectations. As history repeatedly teaches us, this would only increase the eventual cost of bringing inflation under control.

Over-tightening risks pushing the global economy into an unnecessarily harsh recession. As several prominent voices have argued recently, over-tightening is more likely when central banks act in an uncoordinated fashion. Financial markets may also struggle to cope with an overly rapid pace of tightening. Yet, the costs of these policy mistakes are not symmetric. Misjudging yet again the stubborn persistence of inflation could prove much more detrimental to future macroeconomic stability by gravely undermining the hard-won credibility of central banks.

As economies start slowing down, and financial fragilities emerge, calls for a pivot toward looser monetary conditions will inevitably become louder.

Where necessary, financial policy should ensure that markets remain stable, but central banks around the world need to keep a steady hand with monetary policy firmly focused on taming inflation.

That’s a very different position than The UN, which urged policymakers to stop tightening and save the world.

The IMF believes inflation will peak later this year, with an annual rate of 8.8%, but will remain elevated for longer than previously expected, only slowing to 6.5% next year and 4.1% by 2024.

“Now is the time for emerging market policymakers to batten down the hatches,” IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote. That includes eligible countries requesting access to precautionary support from the IMF.

The world needs progress toward orderly debt restructurings through the Common Framework created by the Group of 20 largest economies for the most affected low-income nations, Gourinchas wrote.

“Time may soon be running out.”

*  *  *

Full Breakdown of IMF forecasts below:

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Global Chip Rout Vaporizes Quarter Trillion In Value As Earnings Estimates Crater

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 09:25 AM

Global semiconductor stocks were monkey-hammered Tuesday in a worsening US-China tech war. The acceleration of the chip rout has wiped out a whopping $240 billion from the sector’s global market value since Thursday, according to Bloomberg data. 

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest chipmaker, plunged as much as 8.5% in Asia (a record), while Samsung Electronics and Tokyo Electron also extended declines. 

The downward draft in global semis comes after the Biden administration slapped China last Friday with US export restrictions on certain types of chips used in artificial intelligence and supercomputing. Tighter rules were also enforced on US companies selling semiconductor equipment to Chinese firms. 

“The changes represent a further escalation, and we do not know what China might do in response,” wrote Stacy Rasgon, an analyst at Bernstein. “Potential retaliation remains a risk.”

Gabriel Wildau, an analyst at advisory firm Teneo Holdings, said the new restrictions might only suggest the Biden administration is buying some time to limit China’s advancement of chips while allowing the US to catch up. 

The new trade restrictions come as the chip industry grapples with a terrible start to the earning season as weaker PC demand and supply chain issues plague manufacturers’ outlooks. AMD issued preliminary third-quarter results last week that warned about these issues. 

In the US, chip stocks are on track for the third day of declines, with Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Nvidia Corp., Qualcomm Inc., and Texas Instruments Inc. down about 1%. The benchmark Philadelphia Semiconductor is down 42% this year and on track for the worst annual performance in 14 years as the PC and crypto booms turn to busts. Earnings estimates downgrades have also accelerated (one of the fastest declines since 2008) and will likely continue for the next few quarters. 

SOX is priced around 13.3 times estimated earnings, nearing a low of 11.3 in 2018. Earnings could be slashed in the coming quarters as a glut of memory chips and graphics cards need to be offloaded at heavily discounted prices. Samsung, Micron, and AMD have all warned about excess inventory… 

Christopher Danely, an analyst at Citigroup, had a pretty ominous view about semis, indicating, “this is just the beginning of the downturn and every company/every end market will feel it.”

October has been the worst month for global tech since October 2008. 

“It is difficult to call a bottom on the performance of the chip sector,” said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer of the Global CIO Office.

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PAUL ALEXANDER…

Open in browserMechanical ventilator killed our peoples, killed our elderly & it was not supposed to happen; lungs were already in trauma & could not withstand the ventilator; doctors & nurses could not operate vent
see substacks below
(Alexander & Senger); Mortality rates for those who received mechanical ventilation in the 18-to-65 and older-than-65 age groups were 76.4% and 97.2%, respectively (JAMA).
Dr. Paul Alexander
Oct 11 
▷  LISTENSAVE 
I have written a new stack to follow where doctors have given their input and adds more substance to the debate. The reality is there was not mal-intent as much as pure ineptness and ignorance and fear by those who operated and decided on these ventilators etc. Bottom line is people died as a result.The ventilator damaged and destroyed lung tissue that was already damaged from COVID.
SOURCE:https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184
Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine
We massively overused intubation and ventilation and with no solid evidentiary basis, none, and we now know it was extremely harmful in that we killed thousands with the ventilator! Who will pay?

If shown that they knew it was harmful yet was power drunk, that they benefitted financially, if it is show there was corruption and recklessness and neglect, perfidiousness, then I say clean them all out financially and jail them and if judges say they are warranted the death penalty if it is shown they took lives, then we hang them all! Fauci, Birx, F…
Read more

Lockdown lunacy again in China: “Lockdown Worries Return to Shanghai, China Covid Tally Rises”; LOCKED DOWN TOO LONG, TOO HARD, PAYING THE PRICE, CHINESE health officials are lunatics now!

China is stepping up efforts to contain Covid-19 outbreaks ahead of the Party Congress, with national cases climbing to the highest in almost two months and concerns about widening lockdowns rippling

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 11
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

SOURCE:

https://news.yahoo.com/lockdown-worries-return-shanghai-china-024547662.html

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a must read…Geert VandenBossche is the world’s best virologist.

Open in browser‘It is 5 past 12! Something is catastrophically wrong with the COVID gene injections and severe harm is coming!’ Geert Vanden Bossche warns; ‘immune refocusing is that it expedites immune escape’
we are already too late to intervene in a way that could prevent humanitarian crisis. It is really my last and desperate call for action as Omicron is now causing a fast and large-scale immune escape

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 11
 ▷  LISTENSAVE ‘
And immune refocusing, before I explain the mechanism, the effect of immune refocusing is that it expedites immune escape in vaccines. So, it accelerates it. And how does it do that? It does that by reorienting the immune response to antigens or part of antigens which we sometimes call epitopes, reorienting the immune response to antigens that basically recall previously vaccine primed antibodies that have lower neutralizing capacity.So in fact, the new refocusing is redirecting the new response to antigens that have a poor potential of inducing neutralizing antibodies. So how does that work? Well, let me first tell you when this happens. When does this happen? This happens when an immune system is confronted with an antigen in the presence of preexisting antibodies against a similar antigen that is however not identical.’

VACCINE IMPACT/

Children Labeled “ADHD” Support the $20 Billion Pharmaceutical Industry who Wants More Children on Drugs

October 10, 2022 11:20 am

October is designated “ADHD Awareness Month,” during which pharmaceutical company-funded groups promote the risks of “untreated” Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, and the need for mind-altering “medication.” Not discussed is how the psychiatric drugs prescribed to treat ADHD are linked to psychosis, addiction, cardiac arrest and suicide while raking in $20 billion a year in U.S. sales alone.

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY

Hal Turner Radio Show – STUNNING Testimony: Pfizer Never Tested COVID “Vax” to “Stop Transmission” of Virus! We were all lied to ! ! !

Robert Hryniak2:41 PM (25 minutes ago)
to

Stunning is it not?
We were all lied to by a collective of politicians who ruined not just the period of Covid lockdowns built also countless lives while an unwitting public trusted their officials. And some people have died as a result mantra more suffering side effects.  Disgusting, none are fit to serve!
And now we are to believe the same crowd in believing that taking good credit and giving to the Ukraine for thievery to profit is a good idea ? Balderdash! This stupidity will kill millions needlessly unchecked and ruin the lives of many people for generations. If these folks are so taken with dying for cause let them go to front lines of conflict in the Ukraine.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/stunning-testimony-pfizer-never-tested-covid-vax-to-stop-transmission-of-virus-we-were-all-lied-to

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MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

“What If Everything Goes Wrong At The Same Time… Don’t Worry, We Have Ben Bernanke To Guide Us Through”

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 09:47 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Noble and Ignoble Prizes

Yesterday saw widespread Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. Some suggest this tit-for-tat for the Kerch bridge is to instil fear; others, that it is aimed at taking down Ukraine’s power supplies ahead of winter. If the latter, Europe could potentially see a flood of refugees looking for (expensive) heat and shelter: yesterday already saw Ukraine halt power exports to Europe. For Russia such actions would make its ‘prize’ in Ukraine more of a poisoned chalice, but Chechnya and Syria are two examples of the same kind of action. Meanwhile, Europe and the US are now to send air defense aid to Ukraine, so military escalation continues. Grain prices were up significantly yesterday, as markets realised the celebrated Black Sea supply deal may not hold, as we feared.

In the financial economy we saw particular volatility in Gilts. The BOE stepped in again but stepped away from hopes they were going to be doing a yield-friendly QE vs. more traditional Bagehot action. 10-year Gilt yields spiked 24bp, and that was 9bp lower than the peak sell-off, with 5-year Gilts up 19bp, and 2-year Gilts up 22bp. The next UK OBR public finances report will now be released on 31 October. Get your Halloween cliché headlines written now.

There was a sell-off in Bunds on suggestions Germany might agree to debt mutualisation to pay for energy subsidies during this economic war with Russia: 10-year Bund yields surged 15bp to 2.33%, with 2-years up only 4bp to 1.88%, bear steepening the curve. However, this rumor was subsequently denied by a German government source talking to Reuters. Yet consider that if Europe cannot agree on such fiscal measures in war-time, it likely never will. There is a message in that too for Europe.

This morning, US 10-year Treasury yields were up 7bp to 3.95% – that 4% bogeyman is just around the corner given current volatility levels, and 2-years were already at 4.30%, the highest since 2007.

In the real economy, the issue with barges on the Mississippi fortunately looks to be easing. Yet a key US rail union has rejected the pay deal agreed a few weeks ago, 56% of its members saying no to a 24% pay rise, a $5,000 bonus, and an additional paid day off. Back to the bargaining table the sides go, with rail strikes able to start from 14 November. If they do occur, expect the massive supply-side disruptions already covered recently.

In the EU we see a headline, ‘How Big Food Aims to Fill Europe’s Shelves in Gas Crisis’, noting: “The world’s biggest food companies are bracing for the next threat: a winter with too little gas to power their factories…In response, the foodmakers are pleading their case to policy makers, cutting back on energy use and converting gas-fired plants to oil to keep Europe’s shelves filled with staples like cereal, bread and yogurt – even if natural gas supplies dry up.” Food firms will be given priority during energy rationing, one would think: yet the issue is likely to be packagingBig firms have stocked up on such key items, but small/mid-sized producers might not have been able to.

China’s People’s Daily says Covid Zero is “sustainable” and the country must stick with it because it’s key to stabilizing the economy. I suppose zero motion is stable. By contrast, Bloomberg’s Shuli Ren shills: “Behind closed doors, when and how to reopen the economy must be on top of Beijing’s agenda…. Local governments are going broke…. The highly contagious Omicron variant isn’t going away…. Assuming some rationality at the top, fast deteriorating finances will force Beijing’s hand.” If she’s right, inflation will pick up again; if she’s wrong, China’s economy won’t.

Also, the US is warning Hong Kong if Russian firms use it to circumvent sanctions, it could “threaten its status as a financial hub”.

In the surreal economy, the Nobel Prize committee showed either they don’t read this Daily (no!), or if they do, they do the opposite. After all, they just gave the Prize in Economics (jointly) to former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.

Yes, Economics isn’t a real Noble Prize. Yes, there have been lots of previous stupid winners of even the real Prizes:

For Peace to Aung San Suu Kyi, for being pro-democracy – who then looked the other way over a genocide; to the EU, for being the EU; to Barack Obama, for something – who then carried out drone strikes on weddings, etc.; to Henry Kissinger – for blowing up South-East Asia, etc.

For Literature to Peter Handke – despite genocide denial (again); to Bob Dylan – for singing; to Mario Vargas Llosa – for being political in a way the committee liked; and never to Tolstoy while we was still alive.

For Economics to Friedman – for monetarism, just before it was tried and failed, and as he backed the dictator Pinochet in Chile; to Nordhaus – for saying if climate change gets too bad, we can spend more time indoors and GDP will be OK; to Krugman – for saying free trade always ends up with the best of all possible outcomes in the best of all possible worlds.         

However, to give a Nobel to Ben “Sub-prime is contained”/“high levels of private debt do not matter”/”banks intermediate between savers and borrowers”/“zero rates and QE” Bernanke for providing “a foundation for our modern understanding of why banks are needed, why they’re vulnerable, and what to do about it” –just as central banks try to undo the post-2008 policy error, and perhaps the post-1980 financialisation and zombification of the economy to boot– is either a slap in the face (“You might reshape the global economy, but you aren’t going to get a prize from us!”) or shows economics, or the Nobel committee, or both are past saving.

Putting it more succinctly, Matt Taibbi tweeted: “Giving Ben Bernanke the Nobel Prize in Economics may be the drunkest decision of all time.” Amen, Matt, Amen. And cheers to the Nobel Prize team.

The Nobel committee obviously won’t be giving out gongs to the ideas expressed in Bloomberg’s ‘What if Everything Goes Wrong at the Same Time?’, a theme I have been exploring all year: “2022 has been a terrible year for the world economy. War in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, and Federal Reserve tightening will take global growth down to 3.1%, way below expectations at the start of the year. The big question for finance chiefs gathering in Washington for the October meetings of the International Monetary Fund: could 2023 be worse? The unfortunate answer: yes, and maybe a lot worse…. Drawing on scenarios from Bloomberg Economics’ country teams and using a suite of models to calculate spillovers between countries, we estimate that if downside risks crystallize, global growth in 2023 could slide to -0.5%.” That’s as World Bank President Malpass warns of a potential global recession ahead.

The Bloomberg Economics team continues: “It is, of course, also possible to construct an upside scenario. An end to conflict in Ukraine or an unusually warm winter could spare Europe from recession, China might exit Covid lockdowns earlier or add more stimulus to offset the property slide than we expect, US labor markets might deliver the immaculate disinflation that the Fed is hoping for. Some combination of those positive surprises might cheer markets and lift global growth for the year above expectations.” So peace, sun, rationality, and immaculateness and we are all okay.

Yet as they conclude: ”the base case is for 2023 to be a year of lacklustre growth and still-high price pressure. And the lesson of the last few years is that things can always get worse.”

Don’t worry though – we have Ben Bernanke and other Nobel prize-winners to guide us through

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

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END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

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Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.97161 UP   0.0005 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED  

USA/ YEN 145.59   DOWN  0.079 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1085 UP   0.0005

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 5.65 PTS OR 0.17% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED  DOWN 384.30 POINTS OR 2.23% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.40%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 384.30 PTS OR 2.23%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 5.65 PTS OR 0.17%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.40% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 714.86 PTS OR 2.64%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1669.60

silver:$19.38

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 112.98 DOWN 19  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.37% UP 0  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.248% UP 0 AND 4/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.47%//  DOWN 3 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.69  UP 7   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.305% DOWN 4 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.97235 UP  .0014   or 14 basis points

USA/Japan: 145.68 UP 0.0080 OR YEN DOWN 8 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1130 UP .0032 OR  32 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0004 OR 4 BASIS pts  to 1.3777

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 7.1653

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.1652

TURKISH LIRA:  18.59  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.248

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2  IN basis points from MONDAY at  3.903% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.894  UP 5  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 112.76 DOWN .29 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 66.67 PTS OR  0.96%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 69.92 POINTS OR 0.57%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 15.79 PTS OR 0.27% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 56.20 OR  0.76%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 201.13PTS OR  0.92%

WTI Oil price 89.76  12: EST

Brent Oil:  94.28   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  63.57 DOWN 0  AND 87/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.305

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.97084 DOWN .0004     OR  4  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.09845 DOWN  .0095 or  95 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 145.82 UP .151//YEN DOWN 15 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3809 UP 0.0036  (CDN dollar, DOWN 36 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 88.20

Brent OIL:  93.86

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 3.900%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 3.848%

USA dollar index:113.20 UP 0.14 basis pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.59

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  63.66  DOWN 1 AND   97/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 36.31 PTS OR 0.12 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 135.62 PTS OR 1.24%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 33.75 UP 1.30 PTS (4.01)%

GLD: $155.16 DOWN 0.32 OR 0.21%

SLV/ $17.68  DOWN $.41 OR 2.27%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bank Of England To Global Markets: ‘You Have 3 Days To Sell All The Things’

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 04:01 PM

An interesting day that started with The BoE expanding its pension fund bailout, the IMF slashing global growth outlooks, and significant hawkishness from Mester refuting Brainard’s comments yesterday.

Things were all holding together in an ‘orderly’ fashion however until BoE’s Gov Andrew Bailey started speaking in Washington late in the day and went full “Leeroy Jenkins’…

After doubling-down on its pension fund bailout scheme, BoE’s Bailey spoke in Washington this afternoon, initially warning that “market volatility went beyond bank stress tests” (which is scary), then reinforcing that there is a “serious risk to UK financial system stability,” noting that the buying program is “temporary“.

But the piece de resistance was his reminding the market that BoE will be out by the end of the week, adding a simple threat…

“My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now,” Bailey said at an event in Washington on Tuesday.

“You’ve got to get this done. The essence of financial stability, is that it (intervention) is temporary. It’s not prolonged.”

Or what Andy?

What does the BoE Governor expect global markets to do now? Knowing that this is a “serious risk to financial system stability” and more stressful than bank stress tests, what would you do with your investments?

Our tweet says it all…(Roughly translated: ‘you have 3 days to sell everything’)…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1579906332240379904&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fbank-england-global-markets-you-have-3-days-sell-all-things&sessionId=67fed1b4206bba0bcc8b832c54023560005127dd&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1c23387b1f70c%3A1664388199485&width=550px

The Bank of England doubled down on the booze at the pension fund bailout party this morning (adding inflation-linked debt to its purchases to stabilize the market after a record surge in yields on Monday)… but no one turned up as Gilts and Linkers both saw yields higher despite billions in buying promised

Source: Bloomberg

The FT answers why UK investors aren’t selling more bonds?

Traders say the reluctance of some investors to offload larger quantities of gilts is in part a consequence of the BoE’s approach to making purchases.

The central bank has only bought gilts at close to the prevailing market level and has rejected offers it deemed too expensive. Investors may get a slightly better price by selling their bonds to the central bank rather than on the open market, but the difference is measured in small fractions of a percentage point. In return, they have to face the uncertainty of whether the BoE will actually accept their offer to sell, or potentially leave the bank holding unwanted gilts in a market where the price may have moved against them in the meantime.

“Clients don’t like the uncertainty – they say ‘you take the risk and you can charge us for it’,” said a gilt trader at one big investment bank.

The BoE’s approach is in contrast to its QE programmes that followed the global financial crisis, the Brexit vote, and the Covid outbreak. Then, the central bank waded into markets to buy a pre-determined amount of bonds whatever the price, with the express intention of lowering yields.

This time, the BoE has said repeatedly it has no intention of seeking lower bond yields, a message investors have taken to heart.

“You sell the bond wherever the market is – there’s no buying force coming from the BoE,” the trader said.

“The way that the bank has structured this intervention is they can only buy assets if people put offers into them, but nobody is putting offers in,” said Craig Inches, head of rates and cash at Royal London Asset Management.

He said the pension funds would rather sell their riskier assets, including corporate bonds or property.

And so, after Bailey’s late-day comments, the selling began…

Cable puked to 10-day lows back below 1.10 (UK bonds were closed obviously)…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity markets plunged to the lows of the day after Bailey’s comments. The Dow managed to scramble back into the green but the S&P and Nasdaq were down (the latter worst of the majors on the day)…

Nasdaq and S&P are down for the 5th straight day with Nasdaq at its lowest level since July 2020.

All sectors were hit on Bailey’s comments, with Tech the worst performer and Staples and Real Estate leading on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury yields were lower on the day (and mixed from Friday’s close  with the curve steeper as the short-end outperformed), reversing yesterday’s increases (futures-based) shortly after Europe closed today. Yields spiked higher after Bailey’s comments…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably 10Y Yields once again stalled perfectly at 4.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

Hawkish comments from Fed’s Mester who warned “at this point the larger risks come from tightening too little and allowing very high inflation to persist and become embedded in the economy.” However, STIRs shifted very modestly dovish today…

Source: Bloomberg

The USDollar was down quite hard today after 4 straight days higher before Bailey’s comments sent the greenback soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

The Swiss Franc bounced higher after touching parity against the dollar once again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tumbled after Bailey’s comments, back below $19k…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices extended losses after Bailey’s comments…

Gold puked hard after testing up towards $1700 intraday…

Finally, we note that Cathie Wood’s ARKK is on the verge of taking out COVID lockdown lows as its analog to the DotCom boom and bust completes…

Source: Bloomberg

“This was coming because it has always been this way before,” ‘Big Short’ Michael Burry tweeted Monday, adding “how anyone over the age of 40 did not see it coming is a riddle. The answer is Greed.”

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//JOBS REPORT

END

AFTERNOON TRADING

ii) USA DATA/

NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations Slide To 12 Month Low As Household Spending Expectations Crater Most On Record

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 11:31 AM

With inflation expectations recently tumbling across the board, the best example of which is the collapse in 2Y Breakevens which are trading near 2 year low thanks to the sharp drop in commodity prices (recent post-OPEC+ spike in oil notwithstanding), and recently even dropping below the Fed’s own inflation target of 2%…

… moments ago the latest NY Fed consumer expectations survey confirmed what we already know, namely that one year-ahead inflation expectations, those which are driven most directly by the price of gas, extended their recent steep declines in September, from 5.7% to 5.4%, the lowest print since September 2021 – even as the longer-term, 3Y inflation expectations rose modestly from 2.8% to 2.9%, or roughly where they were 2 years ago and where they have trended on average over the past decade (median five-year-ahead inflation expectations, which have been included in the monthly SCE core survey on an ad-hoc basis since the beginning of this year, increased to 2.2 percent from 2.0 percent).

With the latest NY Fed survey data we can update our matrix of various inflation expectations data points which now looks like this:

But while the continued decline in near-term inflation expectations will be welcomed by the Fed as longer-term expectations remain anchored not too far from their long-term average, a more ominous reading was seen in the expectations about household spending growth which cratered to 6.0% from 7.8% in August, the largest one month decline since the series’ inception in June 2013.

Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago were roughly unchanged, but the share of households reporting a worse situation compared to a year ago remains close to its series high. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations were also roughly unchanged in September.

And another sign that the slowdown in the economy is trickling down to the consumer level was that median home price growth expectations fell to 2.0% from 2.09%, the lowest since June 2020; a which according to the NY Fed was “most pronounced among respondents with a college education and annual household income over $100k, but was broad based across geographic regions.”

Elsewhere, expectations about year-ahead price changes rose by 0.4% for gas (to 0.5%), 1.0% for food (to 6.9%), 0.6% for college education (to 9.0%), medical costs dropped by 0.1% (to 9.2%) and rent rose 0.1% (to 9.7%). The median expected change in the cost of medical care, on the other hand, fell by 0.1% (to 9.2%).

Over the next year consumers expect gasoline prices to rise 0.46%; food prices to rise 6.85%; medical costs to rise 9.17%; the price of a college education to rise 9.03%; rent prices to rise 9.67%

Some other observations, first on the state of the labor market:

  • Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth fell by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% in September. The decline was most pronounced for respondents over the age of 60 and those with a high-school education or less.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.9 percentage point to 39.1%.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.5 percentage point to 11.6%. Similarly, the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months increased by 0.9 percentage point to 19.4%. Both increases were most pronounced for those over the age of 60.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased by 0.1 percentage point to 57.3%.

And then on broader Household Finances

  • The median expected growth in household income was unchanged in September at its series high of 3.5%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations fell sharply to 6.0% from 7.8% in August, its steepest one month decline since the series’ inception in June 2013, and its lowest reading since January of this year. The decline was broad based across demographic groups.
  • Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago were roughly unchanged, but the share of households reporting it is harder to obtain credit than one year ago remains at a series high. In contrast, expectations for future credit availability improved, with the share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead falling sharply.
  • The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months was unchanged at 12.2%.
  • The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) was also unchanged at 4.5%.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 10.3%, its lowest reading since March 2020.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 34.7%. The increase was most pronounced for those with annual household income over $100k.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago were roughly unchanged, but the share of households reporting a worse situation compared to a year ago remains close to its series high. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations were also roughly unchanged in September.

Perhaps the most notable other data point is that some 35.3% of consumers still expect US stock prices to be higher in 12 months (a drop of 1.1% from August). Whether they are right will depend on how fast the Fed crashes the economy.

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Republican Attorney Generals are suing Berenson foe Any Slavitt and other Biden officials for colluding with big ech

(zerohedge)

GOP AGs Sue Berenson Foe Andy Slavitt, Other Biden Officials Who Colluded With Big Tech

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 07:20 PM

Two Republican state attorneys general have sued former Biden COVID czar Andy Slavitt and other administration officials as part of an ongoing lawsuit over collusion between the feds and big tech in order to suppress COVID-related free speech.

The complaint, requesting the deposition of “key defendants,” was filed by Republican Attorneys General Eric Schmitt of Missouri and Jeff Landry of Louisiana, and cites a third-party subpoena of Twitter, Meta and YouTube, which identified a variety of White House and administration officials, the Daily Caller reports.

Journalist Alex Berenson – who was banned from Twitter on April 21, 2001 and sued his way back onto the platform – called out Slavitt in an August Substack article.

Andrew Slavitt, senior advisor to President Biden’s Covid response team, complained specifically about me, according to a Twitter employee in another Slack conversation discussing the White House meeting.

They really wanted to know about Alex Berenson,” the employee wrote. “Andy Slavitt suggested they had seen data viz [visualization] that had showed he was the epicenter of disinfo that radiated outwards to the persuadable public.”

According to an interview he gave to the Washington Post in June 2021, Slavitt worked directly with the most powerful officials in the federal government, including Ron Klain, President Biden’s chief of staff, and Biden himself. -Unreported Truths

Slavitt, meanwhile, has lawyered up.

“Throughout this case, we have uncovered a disturbing amount of collusion between Big Tech and Big Government,” said AG Landry in the states’ press release. “This egregious attack on our First Amendment will be met with an -hearted defense of the rights of the American people.”

END

The huge barge logjam eases but not before shipping prices hyperinflate

(zerohedge)

Huge Barge Logjam On Mississippi Eases; Vessel Shipping Prices Hyperinflate

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 08:00 PM

A massive logjam of more than 2,000 barges at various parts of the Mississippi River is being cleared Monday morning. 

Southbound vessel traffic resumed early morning on the Mississippi River near Stack Island, an island located in Issaquena County, Mississippi after northbound traffic was cleared Sunday, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. wrote in a note. 

“We were able to completely clear the Northbound queue,” ADM said. 

ADM added that once all the southbound congestion is resolved, the Coast Guard will allow one-way traffic moving forward. 

Bloomberg also reported two choke points: one near Stack Island and the other near Memphis, Tennessee, were reopening after being closed last week due to the lack of rainfall which caused the grounding of barges, blocking parts of the waterway. 

Last week, we detailed the chaos unfolding on the crucial US water artery for the Midwest economy in “Dangerously Low” Mississippi River Level May Spark Transport Chaos For Farm Goods During Harvest and Barges Grounded By “Near-Historic” Low Water Halt Mississippi River Traffic

The timing of the closure comes as barges transport harvested corn, soybeans, wheat, and other farm goods from Midwest farms to major export terminals in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Remember, the cause of the weather chaos across the US could be due to a weather phenomenon known as La Nina. Meanwhile, Bloomberg continues to point to “climate change.” 

Even though congestion begins to ease, barge prices per ton to ship farm goods have hyperinflated from $12 a ton in June to $90 last week. 

Low water levels reduce the amount of weight a barge can haul, which increases demand for more barges. This is one inflation story the Federal Reserve can’t solve.

end

this would no doubt kill both companies and many more: a proposal for employee status for gig workers

Uber & Lyft Crater On Biden Proposal That Could Lead To Employee Status For Millions Of Gig Workers

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 09:52 AM

Shares of Uber and Lyft tumbled on Tuesday, falling by double digits and adding to the market’s gloom, after the US Department of Labor announced a proposed rule change that would change the way that it determines if workers can be classified as employees or independent contractors. 

The Department of Labor said in a statement that it believes the new proposal will “help protect workers from misclassification” – translation: as the NYT explainsthe proposal could lead to employee status for gig workers. Some more details:

The Labor Department on Tuesday unveiled a proposal that would make it more likely for millions of janitors, home-care and construction workers and gig drivers to be classified as employees rather than independent contractors.

Companies are required to provide certain benefits and protections to employees but not to contractors, such as paying a minimum wage, overtime, a portion of a worker’s Social Security taxes and contributions to unemployment insurance.

The proposed rule is essentially a test that the Labor Department will apply to determine whether workers are contractors or employees for companies. The test considers factors such as how much control workers have over how they do their jobs and how much opportunity they have to increase their earnings by doing things like offering new services. Workers who have little of either are often considered employees.

The new version of the test lowers the bar for that employee classification from the current test, which the Trump’s administration’s Labor Department created.

The proposal is intended as a so-called interpretive rule that doesn’t have the legal force of a regulation specifically authorized by Congress, and it applies only to laws that the department enforces, such as the federal minimum wage. States and other federal agencies, like the Internal Revenue Service, set their own criteria for employment status, and the rule would not directly affect what they decided about the status of gig workers.

But many employers and regulators in other jurisdictions are likely to consider the department’s interpretation when making decisions about worker classification, and many judges are likely to use it as a guide.

In response, Uber stock fell as much as 9.9% in early trading, while Lyft sank as much as 11%…

… sending LYFT stock price to a fresh record low as Uber outperforms due to its somewhat more diversified business model.

END

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//

Diesel Back Above $5, Gas Prices Continue To Rise As “Ugly Inflation” Returns

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 01:45 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Gas prices again are on the rise in the United States after months of volatility, and are expected to increase further over the next few weeks as “ugly” inflation returns, industry experts have said.

Patrick De Haan, senior energy analyst at Gas Buddy, noted in a statement on Twitter late Sunday that gas prices are up $0.133 a gallon from a week ago, to $3.92. Diesel prices have also surged over $5, De Haan said, up $0.18 a gallon, to $5.05.

“Relief coming to West Coast and Great Lakes while gas prices will rise in most other areas 10-20c/gal over the next week or two,” he added.

The national average gas price was at $3.919 a gallon on Oct. 10, up from $3.799 a week prior and $3.269 this time last year, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Meanwhile, diesel prices are at $5.064 a gallon as of Oct. 10, up from $4.870 a week ago and $3.460 a year ago, AAA data show.

Gas prices had declined in recent weeks as the Biden administration released record amounts of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and fears were rife that a recession was on the horizon, dampening demand.

However, the volatile prices have once again shot up at a time when Americans are bracing for a winter full of duress amid surging electricity and heating costs, with the average household set to pay roughly 17 percent more this winter compared to last winter to heat their home, according to a forecast from the nonprofit National Energy Assistance Directors Association.

‘Return of Some Ugly Inflation’

Elsewhere over the weekend, Tom Kloza, energy analysis global head at Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), wrote on Twitter that there has been an “incredible spike this week for heating oil, diesel, and jet fuel markets.”

He noted that OPIS has confirmed “wholesale price increases of 75 cents per gallon to over $1 per gallon in the week,” adding that Americans can expect a “return of some ugly inflation to freight, home comfort, and airfares.”

Kloza also pointed to “very tight inventories,” particularly for diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel, noting that gasoline issues are regional and will likely not prompt a spike in prices until the spring of 2023.

According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) published on Oct. 6, demand for gas increased nationally, from 8.83 million barrels a day to 9.47 million barrels a day last week, while total domestic gasoline stocks tightened significantly by 4.7 million barrels, to 207.5 million barrels.

“High gasoline demand, amid tight supply, has led to higher pump prices nationwide,” the EIA said.

American drivers on the West Coast have faced higher prices amid ongoing planned and unplanned maintenance at around six refineries, which has resulted in limited supply in the region.

Drivers May See Some Relief, Says AAA

Despite the less-than-rosy outlook, AAA noted that refinery restarts and California’s move to allow retailers to start using less-expensive winter-blend gasoline early this year should bring some relief to drivers at the pump in those areas in the coming days.

The state had required retailers to sell an emissions-reducing summer-blend fuel, which increases the cost of gasoline per gallon by as much as $0.25.

In addition, the association noted that the United States is heading into the fall- and winter-driving season, which typically sees a decline in gasoline demand, meaning prices at the pump could also decline in the week ahead.

However, some experts have warned that U.S gas prices are set to rise further after OPEC+, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, said it would reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day, the equivalent of about 2 percent of global oil demand.

That decision, which comes following Biden’s failed attempts to lobby the Saudi kingdom to produce more oil, was made “in light of the uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks,” the group said.

END

Good indicator that the economy is faltering badly: PC shipments plunge 20%

(zerohedge)

PC Shipments Plunge 20%, Steepest Drop In More Than 20 Years

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 02:05 PM

The demand for personal computers in the third quarter dropped 19.5% vs. 1 year ago, marking the steepest decline in more than 20 years, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing research from Gartner Inc.

In the recent quarter, PC manufacturers shipped 68 million computers, down from 84.5 million in the same quarter of 2021 – after elevated pandemic-related sales were followed by a slowdown in consumer spending on electronics, the Journal reports.

“This quarter’s results could mark a historic slowdown for the PC market,” said Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa. “While supply chain disruptions have finally eased, high inventory has now become a major issue given weak PC demand in both the consumer and business markets.”

Back-to-school sales were weaker than expected despite promotions and price drops aimed at driving purchases, Ms. Kitagawa said. A slowing global economy is also making businesses more cautious in their spending decisions. 

The U.S. market for PCs declined by 17.3% in the third quarter, driven by a slump in laptop sales, according to Gartner. -WSJ

Another data provider, International Data Corp, had less catastrophic figures – reporting a 15% drop in global shipments in the third quarter, with a total of 74.3 million units dispatched.

The two research firms tabulate industry data slightly differently.

The PC industry was buoyed during the pandemic from a boom in electronic sales, as both households and businesses scrambled to adapt to technology demands related to work-from-home and remote schooling. And according to the report, those large purchases are hard for consumers to replicate so soon – particularly as inflation forces people to cut back on non-essential spending.

In recent months, PC makers such as Dell and HP have warned of reduced consumer demand – a phenomenon which is now effecting supply chains. For example, AMD cut its revenue forecast for the most recent quarter on Thursday, citing weaker-than-expected PC demand.

The company expects $5.6 billion in sales for the most recent quarter – around $1.1 billion less than it previously expected when it issued a muted outlook in August.

SWAMP STORIES

A good reason why polls in the uSA undercount Republican votes.  They refuse to answer.. 

(zero hedge)

2022 Republican Voters Being Undercounted Again: Trafalgar

MONDAY, OCT 10, 2022 – 09:20 PM

A top independent pollster says Republican voters will be undercounted in the lead-up to the 2022 midterm elections next month – which will likely skew polls in favor of Democrats.

These submerged voters aren’t answering polls, they aren’t putting stickers on their cars, or signs in their yard—they’re not even posting on social media,” said Robert Cahaly, the head of the Trafalgar Group, in a Daily Wire podcast – noting that Republicans may not be inclined to reveal their political views after President Biden’s Sept. 1 speech targeting “MAGA Republicans.”

They are underwater. They’re not saying a word to anybody until election day.

Cahaly added that voters should not trust mainstream polls in the coming weeks – citing previous polls weighted towards Democrats.

“Polls have two purposes,” he said. “They’re either to reflect the electorate, or they’re to affect the electorate—and too many of these media and university-based polls are designed to affect the electorate and are trying to create a false narrative quite often when there’s not one.”

Cahaly made reference to the Biden speech in Philadelphia that accused supporters of former President Donald Trump of being a threat to U.S. institutions, coming just a few weeks after the FBI’s raid of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. While he spoke in front of a dark red-lit background next to two Marines, Biden said Trump and his followers “represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations” of the United States. –Epoch Times

During the 2020 election cycle there were “hidden voters,” Cahaly wrote on Twitter several weeks ago.

“Now [the] Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them,” he said. “This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”

In Nov. of 2020, Pew Research noted; “It’s clear that national and many state estimates were not just off, but off in the same direction: They favored the Democratic candidate.”

Pew added that polls “overestimated the Democratic advantage by an average of about 4 percentage points” in 2020. “When looking at national polls, the Democratic overstatement will end up being similar, about 4 points, depending on the final vote count.”

And in 2016, polls were also inaccurate and were biased in favor of Democrats, Cahaly argued.

“In 2016, Trump supporters were called ‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” Cahaly said on Twitter, referring to Hillary Clinton’s now-infamous “basket of deplorables” remark. “This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed, which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.” -Epoch Times

“National polls can misrepresent the electoral college, and statewide polls can obscure outcomes in congressional districts,” former GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich wrote in the Epoch Times last month. “In early October 2016, Hillary Clinton was only ahead by 3 points nationally—and she was running up huge margins in California and New York (two of our four most populous states). The media believed she would be the next president. But she didn’t have the advantage in the heavily contested states (which meant she wasn’t winning the electoral college).”

END

This was to be expected:  centralist Tulsi Gabbard abandons the Democratic party

(zerohedge)

Tulsi Gabbard Abandons ‘Elitist, Woke, Anti-White’ Democratic Party

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 10:07 AM

While not entirely surprising, the reasons that Tulsi Gabbard reveals for her decision to leave the Democratic Party should raise questions in all but the most-liberal of leftists…

I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are hostile to people of faith & spirituality, demonize the police & protect criminals at the expense of law-abiding Americans, believe in open borders, weaponize the national security state to go after political opponents, and above all, dragging us ever closer to nuclear war.

I believe in a government that is of, by, and for the people.

Unfortunately, today’s Democratic Party does not.

Instead, it stands for a government of, by, and for the powerful elite.

I’m calling on my fellow common sense independent-minded Democrats to join me in leaving the Democratic Party.

If you can no longer stomach the direction that so-called woke Democratic Party ideologues are taking our country, I invite you to join me.

Does make one wonder if she is positioning herself for a VP seat on a DeSantis ticket in 2024?

Watch her full statement below:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tulsi-gabbard-abandons-elitist-woke-anti-white-democratic-party

KING REPORT

The King Report October 11, 2022 Issue 6862Independent View of the News
China tech shares sink as U.S. export curbs raise chip sector hurdles 
The Biden administration published a sweeping set of export controls on Friday, including a measure to cut China off from certain semiconductors made anywhere in the world with U.S. equipment.  The raft of measures, some of which take immediate effect, could amount to the biggest shift in U.S. policy toward exporting technology to China since the 1990s…    https://t.co/s7zzWplifL
 
U.S. aims to hobble China’s chip industry with sweeping new export rules
The rules, some of which take immediate effect, build on restrictions sent in letters this year to top toolmakers KLA Corp, Lam Research Corp, and Applied Materials Inc, effectively requiring them to halt shipments of equipment to wholly Chinese-owned factories producing advanced logic chips…
    The expansion of U.S. powers to control exports to China of chips made with U.S. tools is based on a broadening of the so-called foreign direct product rule. It was previously expanded to give the U.S. government authority to control exports of chips made overseas to Chinese telecoms giant Huawei Technologies Co Ltd and later to stop the flow of semiconductors to Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
    On Friday, the Biden administration applied the expanded restrictions to China’s IFLYTEK, Dahua Technology, and Megvii Technology, companies added to the entity list in 2019 over allegations they aided Beijing in the suppression of its Uyghur minority group…
https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-aims-hobble-chinas-chip-industry-with-sweeping-new-export-rules-2022-10-07/
 
China Stocks Slide as Grim Reality Grips Traders After HolidaysCSI 300 Index at risk of closing at lowest since April 2020Weak China data shows limited room for an economic reboundChinese stocks fell on their return from the Golden Week holiday, hurt by a global equities selloff and bleak holiday-spending data…  https://t.co/nrG94EMibE
 
BoE: Bank of England announces additional measures to support market functioningThe Bank will stand ready to increase the size of its daily auctions to ensure there is sufficient capacity for gilt purchases ahead of Friday 14 October. To date, the Bank has carried out 8 daily auctions, offering to buy up to £40bn, and has made around £5bn of bond purchases. The Bank is prepared to deploy this unused capacity to increase the maximum size of the remaining five auctions above the current level of up to £5bn in each auction. The maximum auction size will be confirmed each morning at 9am and will be set at up to £10bn in today’s operation. The Bank’s existing reserve pricing mechanism will remain in operation during this period.Second, the Bank will launch a Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility (TECRF). This facility will enable banks to help to ease liquidity pressures facing their client LDI funds through liquidity insurance operations, which will run beyond the end of this week. Under these operations, the Bank will accept collateral eligible under the Sterling Monetary Framework (SMF), including index linked gilts, and also a wider range of collateral than normally eligible under the SMF, such as corporate bond collateral.Third, the Bank will also stand ready through its regular Indexed Long Term Repo operations each Tuesday to support further easing of liquidity pressures facing LDI funds. This permanent facility will provide additional liquidity to banks against SMF eligible collateral, including index linked gilts, and so support their lending to LDI counterparties. Liquidity is also available through the Bank’s new permanent Short Term Repo facility, launched last week, which offers an unlimited quantity of reserves at Bank Rate each Thursday.https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/october/bank-of-england-announces-additional-measures-to-support-market-functioning
 
UK Treasury and BOE Step Up Action to Reassure Rattled Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/bank-of-england-expands-emergency-program-to-support-bond-market
   
UK financial watchdog intensifies scrutiny of battered gilts market-source https://t.co/Bo0CtE7c6G
 
BoE’s New Support Plan Fails as UK Gilt Yields Explode Higher https://t.co/8wBTRKbhUA
Yields up 22bps today… (midday Monday)
 
Swiss National Bank cuts overnight deposits by 30 billion francs
Last week’s drop was the second biggest decline in sight deposits – cash of commercial banks held with the central bank – since weekly records began 11 years ago. It follows a 77.5 billion franc drop the week before and likely represents the SNB selling bills and repos into the market as part of its strategy to raise the Swiss Average Rate Overnight (SARON) towards the central bank’s policy rate of 0.5%, economists said.  https://t.co/Yl3wqtg4Yz
 
Putin’s blitz of missiles against dozens of civilian targets in Ukraine marks a major escalation as he tries to overcome a string of humiliating reverses https://t.co/ZIH2KHkxjb
 
Missile barrage unleashed on Ukraine is merely the ‘first episode’ of Putin’s revenge, Moscow vows as Poland carries out bomb shelter checks following rocket blitz and Belarus announces ‘joint military force’ with Russia  https://t.co/8E0Fb2lwlJ
 
EU condemns ‘barbaric’ Russian missile attacks, warns Belarus https://t.co/yG8SSPGRLZ
 
@business: “These indiscriminate attacks on civilians are war crimes,” European Council President Charles Michel responds to Russian missile strikes on cities across Ukraine  https://t.co/3dysFHBcyQ
 
@sjcasey: Wheat market volatility is back after Russia launches a barrage of missiles at Ukraine. Futures in Chicago are threatening to go limit-up https://t.co/3tV7MHDQ0u
 
Germany to rush delivery of air defence systems to Ukraine  https://t.co/NIiS0isegX
 
Germany cybersecurity chief facing sack over alleged Russian intelligence ties  https://t.co/NIiS0ia52P
 
Ben Bernanke and Two Others Win Nobel Prize in Economics for Crisis Research
Many on Twitter thought Bernanke’s award was a ‘joke’…
    I feel like this has to be a joke, but I’m not sure…. clown world status makes it tough to tell
    Bernanke getting Nobel prize for economics is simply equivalent to ISIS getting peace Nobel
    Powell should also get for being the best inflation forecaster
    The guy indulged in money printing merited with a Nobel prize. J Powell should get two then…  
And we must remind readers Bernanke famously told the American people ‘There was no housing bubble’ in late 2005 — only a few years later, well, all know what happened… Here’s Bernanke, leading up to the GFC, showing just how wrong he was about the coming crisis.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ben-bernanke-and-two-others-win-nobel-prize-economics-crisis-research
 
ESZs traded in negative territory during Asian and early European trading on the litany of negative news and developments listed above.  Of course, the usual suspects bought ESZs and stocks for the NYSE open.  ESZs peaked (3667.50) at 9:07 ET.  They then commenced a tumble that took ESZs to a daily low of 3600.00 at 13:08 ET.
 
Because 3600 was not breached, algos and traders then poured into ESZs and stocks.  The rally might have been abetted by Fed CEO Brainard.  Extremely liberal Fed VCEO Lael Brainard reiterated all the hawkish Fed talking points that other Fed officials have asserted over the past few weeks. 
 
However, the usual suspects proclaimed that Brainard hinted that the Fed pivot is near when she stated, “Moving forward deliberately and in a data-dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity, employment, and inflation are adjusting to cumulative tightening in order to inform our assessments of the path of the policy rate…”
 
Brainard Offers Case for Caution as Fed Hikes Rates Aggressively – BBG’s fallacious headline
“Monetary policy will be restrictive for some time to ensure that inflation moves back to target over time,” she saidhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/brainard-offers-case-for-caution-as-fed-hikes-rates-aggressively
 
ESZs hit 3647.00 at 13:52 ET.  After a moderate decline, ESZs and stocks settled into a wide trading range that persisted until the close.
 
Despite the equity rebound rally on 3600 holding for the ESZs, USZs rebounded moderately.  USZs hit a low of 123 21/32 at 13:01 ET.  They rebounded to 124 7/32 at 13:15 ET.  The cash bond market was closed on Monday.  It will be interesting to see how bonds react today.
 
Many traders and trading models that are programmed to buy stuff on parameters that were inculcated into memories of when the Fed was historically promiscuous.  The parameters might be invalid now.
 
Yes, Virginia, bulls and shills are so desperate that they see signs of Fed pivots everywhere.
 
Nasdaq hit a new 2022 low and the lowest level since July 2020.  The SOX Index hit its lowest level since November 2020.
 
@BP_Rising: Bernanke gets Nobel Prize for copying failed monetary policy of Japan – lead to lost decades, liquidity trap, hyper-deflation. Yet to see real fallout from Modern Moron Monetary Policy (currency debasement) in U.S. and a child could press a button on the Digital Inflation Printer.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
The DJTA rallied
Conditioned and modeled buying during early US trading saved equities
 
Negative aspects of previous session
ESZs sank during early US trading
USZs declined sharply despite the US cash bond market’s closure for Columbus Day
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
When will capitulation occur?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3617.55
Previous session High/Low3652.17; 3588.10
 
China lauds Elon Musk’s suggestion that Taiwan become a ‘special administrative zone’ https://t.co/EZTa3yKWzH
 
Tesla’s China-made sales hit record following Shanghai factory upgrade
Tesla Inc delivered 83,135 China-made electric vehicles (EVs) in September…
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-sells-record-china-made-vehicles-september-following-shanghai-factory-2022-10-09/
 
Biden vows air defense systems for Ukraine after missile attack (Looks like an escalation!)
https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-condemns-russian-missile-strikes-says-us-will-continue-impose-costs-2022-10-10/
 
FedEx is no longer providing a monthly economic update – BBG
 
Retailers’ High-Stakes Holiday Grab Begins
Record levels of inventory have retailers fighting for a shrinking pie this holiday season
https://www.wsj.com/articles/retailers-high-stakes-holiday-grab-begins-11665425429
 
WSJ’s @GunjanJS: Inventories at general-merchandise stores were at an **all-time high** in July, up 30% yoy, according to the latest data from the Census Bureau  https://twitter.com/GunjanJS/status/1579597787876163584
 
Today – Traders will try to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside, abetted by the notion that another tsunami of bad news, like on Monday, is unlikely to appear today.  The reopening of the US cash bond market will be an important dynamic.  3600 for ESZs is important support.
 
ESZs hit +10.75 at 19:21 ET on buying for the expected Turnaround Tuesday; they are -5.50 at 20:05 ET.
 
Expected economic data: Sept NFIB Small Business Optimism 91.3; Sept Budget Statement -$25.0B; Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 12:00 ET at Economics Club of NY
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3975; 100-day MA: 3948; 150-day MA: 4073; 200-day MA: 4185
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,627; 100-day MA: 31,612 150-day MA: 32,360; 200-day MA: 33,034
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4610.41 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4019.66 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3790.18 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3677.58 triggers a sell signal
 
(GOP NY Gov candidate) Lee Zeldin says NY crime crisis ‘showed up at our doorstep’ after shooting outside home with daughters inside  https://t.co/J8Pdfhyrla
 
@libbyemmons: Why is (Randi Weingarten) the president of the American Federation of Teachers in Ukraine while our kids’ schools are failing?
 
VP Harris says ‘nobody’ should go to jail for marijuana use despite overseeing pot convictions as DA – She oversaw nearly 2,000 convictions for pot-related offenses… (and bragged about it!)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/vp-harris-says-nobody-should-go-jail-marijuana-use-despite-overseeing-pot-convictions-da
 
Trump slams McConnell over lack of funding for Masters in Arizona
“The Old Broken Crow, Mitchell McConnell, is authorizing $9 Million Dollars to be spent in order to beat a great Republican, Kelly (Tshibaka), instead of $9 Million Dollars that could be used for Blake Masters, and other Republicans, that with this money would beat their Democrat opponent,”…
https://news.yahoo.com/trump-slams-mcconnell-over-lack-230240367.html

Greg Hunter

WILL SEE YOU TOMORROW

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