OCT 12//GOLD CLOSED UP $4.00 TO $1670.70//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 18 CENTS TO $18.99//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $15.90 TO $888.40//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $24.60 TO $2131.65//B.OF E’S BAILEY PLAYING THE GAME OF CHICKEN WITH BRITISH GOVERNMENT: WE WILL KNOW WHO WINS ON FRIDAY//COVID UPATES IMPORTANT READS//VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//ALUMINUM PRICES SKYROCKET WITH BIDEN WILLING TO BAN RUSSIAN ALUMINUM FROM MARKETS//USA PULLS USA WORKERS FROM INSIDE CHINA’S CHIP MAKING FACILITIES//SWEDEN FAILS TO SHOW RESULTS OF PROBE INTO THE BOMBING OF NORDSTREAM ONE AND TWO//FRENCH GAS RATIONING BEGINS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP  $4.00 to $1670.70

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  DOWN $0.18 to $18,99

Access prices: closes

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1674.50

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 19.05

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $19,140 UP 145

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,158 UP 127

Platinum price closing UP 4.65 AT  $904.30

Palladium price; closing DOWN 0  at $2156.25

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD $2318 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ UP $18.35 CDN DOLLARS

BRITISH GOLD IN POUNDS: 1509.03 POUNDS PER OZ DOWN 8.63 BRITISH POUNDS PER OZ/

EURO GOLD: 1725.88 EUROS PER OZ// UP 10.34 EUROS PER OZ///

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,678.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/11/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 10/13/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


132 C SG AMERICAS 20
323 C HSBC 24
661 C JP MORGAN 6
800 C MAREX SPEC 2 1
905 C ADM 9


TOTAL: 31 31
MONTH TO DATE: 21,578

JPMORGAN STOPPED  8/28 

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT CONTRACT:    31 NOTICES FOR 3100 OZ //.0964 TONNES

total notices so far: 21,576 contracts for 2,157,600 oz (67.116 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 20 NOTICES FILED FOR 100,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  359 :  for 1,795,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP 4.00

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////

INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 478.196 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 125  CONTRACTS TO 125,623  AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE TINY LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR   $0.11 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.11).SPECS CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR SHORTFALLS. OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) MINIMAL  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWING A 235,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   TINY SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ MINIMAL SPEC COVERING THEIR SHORTS.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: — 53

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 days, total 50,475 contracts:  25.237 million oz  OR 2.527MILLION OZ PER DAY. (505 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 25.237  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  25.237 MILLION OZ INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 125 WITH OUR  $0.11 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 425 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS //  SOME SHORT ADDITIONS//SMALL NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS//  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT. OF 1.580 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 235,000 QUEUE JUMP  .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 300 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 1.50 MILLION  OZ..

 WE HAD 20  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  100,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 3631 CONTRACTS  TO 431,395 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED —  -492 CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $10.30//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY //  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF  10,900 OZ//NEW STANDING 69.045 TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $10.30 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 93 OI CONTRACTS 0.2892 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3538 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 431,395

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 399 CONTRACTS  WITH 3139 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3538 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 399 CONTRACTS OR 1.241 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3538) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3631): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 93 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS///NEWBIE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP///NEW STANDING 69.045 TONNES//.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT. :

22,326 CONTRACTS OR 2,232,600 OZ OR 69.44 TONNES 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2233 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 69.44 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  69.44/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.95% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  69.44  TONNES INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL  BY A TINY SIZED 125 CONTRACT OI TO  125,623 AND CLOSER TO   OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 425 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 425  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 125  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 425  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN  OF 300  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.500 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.11

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 45.71 PTS OR 1.52%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 131.39 OR 0.78%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 4.42PTS OR 0.02%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.03%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.1711 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1802//    /Oil UP TO 89.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.71    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 3631 CONTRACTS TO 431,395 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS FAIR  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED  DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $10.30  IN GOLD PRICING  TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (3538 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3538 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :3538 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3538 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A TINY SIZED  TOTAL OF 93  CONTRACTS IN THAT 3538 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 3631  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS TINY GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $10.30//WE HAD SPEC SHORTS ADDING TO THEIR POSITIONS  WITH BANKERS TAKING THE OTHER SIDE AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS.  WE ALSO HAD SOME ADDITIONAL SPECS GOING LONG DUE TO THE ATTRACTIVE PRICE

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING OCT   (69.045),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  69.045 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $10.30) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS (THEY ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS) AS WE HAD A TINY SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 93 CONTRACTS //     WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL GAIN  OF 0.2892 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (69.045 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH A  RISE IN PRICE OF $10.30 

WE HAD -492  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 93 CONTRACTS OR 9300  OZ OR  0.2892 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 127,081//  poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  181,858/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT ’22 COMEX GOLD //OCT 12

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 99,287.070oz


JPMorgan
MALCA
includes
 1183 kilobars

 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in ozNIL  oz
No of oz served (contracts) today31   notice(s)
3100  OZ
0.0964 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)620 contracts 
54,100oz
1.928
 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month21,578 notices
2,157,800
67.116 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits NIL oz

 customer withdrawals:2

i) Out of JPMorgan:  61,252.437oz

ii) out of Malca:  38,034.633 0z  (1183 kilobars)

total:  99,287,070     oz   

total in tonnes: 3.08 tonnes

Adjustments: 1//   dealer to customer

Brinks: 4147.479 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT we have an  oi of 651 contracts having GAINED 81 contracts . We had  28 contracts

filed on TUESDAY, so we gained 109 contracts or an additional 10,900 oz will stand in this active delivery month of Oct.

We will gain gold oz standing on each and every trading day from this day forth until the conclusion of October.

(remember that queue jumping is really EFP’s exercised from London for gold underwritten by COMEX based bankers)

November GAINED 123 contracts to stand at 3131

December lost 5022 contracts down to 363,678

We had 31 notice(s) filed today for 3100 oz FOR THE OCT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 23 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,578) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (OCT 651 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 28 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,219,800 OZ  OR 69.045 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of OCT. (TOTALS CORRECTED FROM FRIDAY)

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (21,578) x 100 oz+   (651)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (31} x 100 oz} which equals 2,219,800, oz standing OR 69.045  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of OCTOBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  69.045 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR OCT (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,067,434 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 340.166 tonnes//rapidly declining 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  23,826,978.622 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,315,332.840  OZ (383.06tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,511,645.782 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,247,898 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 318.75 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 12//INITIAL OCT SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory932,339.270 oz
CNT
Int. Delaware

Manfra
Delaware




 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory628,720.874 oz
Delaware
CNT









 
No of oz served today (contracts)20 CONTRACT(S)  
 100,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)67 contracts 
(335,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)417 contracts
 2,085,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  2 deposits into the customer account

i) into Delaware:  32,654.266 oz

ii) Into CNT:  596,066.608 oz

Total deposits:  682,720.874 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 160.801million oz/310,427million =51.86% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 4  

i)Out of CNT 299,941.400 oz

iv) Out of Delaware  961.000 oz

v) Out of Int. Delaware  30,193.150 oz  

vi_ Out of Manfra: 600,245,720 oz

total withdrawals:  931,339.270  oz

 adjustments: // 3 dealer to customer

Brinks: dealer to customer:  15,041.320 oz

CNT  4795.510 oz

Manfra: 4869.658 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 40.082 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 310.422 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT OI: 87 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 9 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 38 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE  GAINED 47

SILVER CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 235,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR OCT.

NOVEMBER GAINED 0 CONTRACT TO STAND AT 400

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 785 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 103,385

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 20 for  100,000 oz

Comex volumes:55,855// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 63,623 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  417 x 5,000 oz = 2,085,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(87) and the number of notices served upon today 20  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT./2022 contract month: 417 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (87)  – number of notices served upon today (20) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates 2,420,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:56,736// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 64,896 contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

SEPT 30  WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 944.31 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER  UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 478.196 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

end

Lawrie Williams

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Are we close to Fed capitulation?

Ambrose thinks so:

(Ambrose Evans Pritchard/UKTelegraph)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Rejoice, for we may be close to Fed capitulation

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-10-11 09:55Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Warnings about monetary overkill by central banks are growing louder. This time the insurgency is coming from within America’s New Keynesian elite.

That matters. It suggests that the Federal Reserve may be closer to a blissful “policy pivot” than markets think. The moment that investors discern signs of any such Fed capitulation, there will be a massive bear-trap rally in battered global equities — at least until the bulls are hit by the oncoming steam-train of deflating profits.

Episodes of Fed tightening are often brutal for the rest of the world. This one is especially ferocious. The broad dollar index is at an epic high, which means slow torture for emerging and frontier markets with $4.2 trillion of debt denominated in dollars. There is $13.4 trillion of offshore dollar debt outside U.S. jurisdiction (BIS data) with no clear lender-of-last-resort. South Korea is already having to approach the Fed for dollar swap lines. 

Borrowers are being hit by the double shock of both the higher dollar and surging dollar loan-rates. Some of this debt must be rolled over on the three-month lending markets, with a rising risk premium for good measure. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/11/rejoice-may-close-fed-capitulation/

end

This should be interesting; UK court says that the hedge funds, Elliot and Jane Street can sue the LME for the cancelled nickel trades

(zerohedge)

UK court says hedge funds can sue LME for cancelled nickel trades

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-10-11 10:46Section: Daily Dispatches

By Pratima Desai
Reuters
Monday, October 10, 2022

LONDON — A British court has granted permission for U.S.-based hedge fund Elliot Associates and Jane Street Global Trading to sue the London Metal Exchange (LME) for cancelling nickel trades in March, a court document showed.

Elliott and Jane Street are demanding damages of $456.4 million and $15.34 million respectively, after the nickel price topped a record $100,000 per tonne on March 8, prompting the LME’s suspension of nickel trading and voiding of trades.

The nickel trading episode has been the biggest crisis to hit the world’s oldest metals forum in decades. The LME has 28 days from Oct. 3 when the ruling was made to file its defence. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/uk-court-says-elliott-jane-street-can-sue-lme-cancelled-nickel-trades-2022-10-10/

end

I have been detailing this to you on a daily basis: paper silver is being converted into real physical metal

(Craig Hemke/Sprott Money)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: A flow out of paper silver and into real metal

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-10-11 17:17Section: Daily Dispatches

By Craig Hemke
SprottMoney.com
Tuesday, October 11, 2022

An interesting dichotomy has developed in the “silver market.” What does it mean? Does it mean anything at all? We’ll know soon enough, I guess.

What an interesting year this has been, and the last six months have been positively brutal. While we await the eventual central bank pivot back toward easing and QE, Comex digital gold and silver have been whacked, cracked, and shellacked. 

But as we have seen multiple times in the past, this has led to a widening gap between the futures price and the physical price.

There’s a lot going on behind the scenes in the commodity markets. 

For example, crude oil demand should be falling with the global economic slowdown. However, crude oil supply is also falling, save for the shortsighted U.S. policy of draining its “strategic reserves.”

And have you noticed the dwindling stockpiles of copper, not only in London but in China, in part due to the unwinding of loans and credit where copper was used as collateral?

But let’s focus today on silver, as it’s of the greatest interest to all of us precious metal stackers. Most know that the price of silver that’s prominently featured in financial media is the price “discovered” on futures exchanges like Comex. As with anything else, this price is often dependent upon supply and demand — in this case, the supply and demand of the futures contracts themselves.

What’s interesting is that the current supply of futures contracts is at a nine-year low. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Physical-Silver-Demand-Soars-Digital-Silver-Demand-Plunges-October-11-2022

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: ALUMINUM

Aluminum prices surge after Biden weighs on a ban on Russian made metal

(zerohedge)

Aluminum Price Surges After White House Weighs Ban On Russian Metal

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 01:01 PM

The Biden administration’s economic war against Russia could soon be stepped up a few notches as Bloomberg reports the White House is considering a complete ban on Russian aluminum. 

People familiar with the matter said the White House is reviewing three options: an outright ban, expanding tariffs to levels that would impose an effective ban, and or sanctioning the country’s top metal producer, United Co. Rusal International PJSC. 

Whatever route the White House takes against Russia could have severe consequences for global metal markets, forcing customers in the US, Europe, and elsewhere into a panic to source replacement metal.

LME aluminum prices jumped as much as 7% on the news. 

Russia is the world’s second-largest producer of aluminum after China. Bloomberg cited trade data showing Russia supplies about 10% of US aluminum imports. It also showed Russia was the third largest exporter to the US in August. 

We noted last week that the London Metal Exchange (LME) considered plans for a potential ban on new Russian metal supplies. Alcoa Corp., the US’ largest aluminum producer, recently sent a letter to the LME indicating Russian metal could be dumped on global markets and suppress prices. 

Today’s news has sent Alcoa shares up more than 8%. Other aluminum makers surged as well. 

The Biden administration has held off sanctioning Russian aluminum for fear of disrupting global markets, but now that might not be the case as the ongoing war, now in its eight-month, continues with no end in sight. Meanwhile, US/EU sanctions against Russia to limit energy flows into global markets have backfired. 

The sources said the high-level discussions about banning Russian aluminum have been ongoing for weeks. 

end 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1711 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1802

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 45.71 PTS OR 1.53%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 131.33 OR 0.78% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 4.42 PTS OR 0.02%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX UPN TO  113.17/Euro RISES TO 0.97078

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.248/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 146.64/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.392%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.834%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.56%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.975//

3j Gold at $1669.05//silver at: 19.15  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND36/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 64.02//

3m oil into the 89 dollar handle for WTI and  94 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 146.64DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9954– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9661well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.962 UP 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.944 UP 4 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,59…GETTTING DANGEROUS

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Bounce, Gilts Tumble In BOE-Driven Rollercoaster Session

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 08:03 AM

US stocks were set to bounce, ending a brutal five-day losing streak, amid confusion over what the BOE will do in two days, amid hope that tomorrow’s CPI print will come in lower than expected, and as Treasury yields eased off multi-year highs – at least initially – and investors put aside concerns that overheating inflation could offer more fodder to hawkish Federal Reserve policy makers amid speculation that things are breaking in far too many markets after it emerged that the Fed had sent a substantial amount of dollars to Switzerland this week in the first material use of the dollar swap facility in 2022. Nasdaq futures gained 0.9% by 7:30 a.m. in New York while S&P 500 futures rose 0.7% a day after the benchmark index nearly erased its October gains, while UK bonds tumbled and the pound rose amid UK policy confusion. While global risk sentiment earlier received a boost from a report suggesting the Bank of England could extend its emergency bond repurchases, a bank spokesperson quashed that speculation and said the program would still end on Friday, leaving traders in the dark as to what will happen.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields and the dollar were little changed as traders await a key US inflation measure due Thursday that’s set to return to a four-decade high, underscoring broad and elevated price pressures that are pushing the Federal Reserve toward yet another large interest-rate hike next month. US investors are also looking to corporate earnings for clues about Fed policy.

Among notable moves in premarket trading, Uber Technologies edged back up after the previous session’s 10% slump that was driven by the Biden administration’s proposal on classifying gig workers’ employment status. Analysts said there was limited near-term risk, given implementation was “far from imminent.” Chip stocks were set to recoup some of this week’s losses stemming from fresh curbs on China’s access to US semiconductor technology. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings also gained in premarket trading, after UBS raised its recommendation on the stock to buy, amid strong improvement in bookings. PepsiCo gained 1.9% in premarket trading after the company raised its forecast for the full year and said consumers continue to purchase more of its snack foods and soft drinks despite rising inflation.

In the US, investors have been laser-focused on how the Fed might respond to inflation figures due Thursday. While economists expect the consumer price index reading for September to have declined slightly versus a year earlier, a surprise increase could send stocks tumbling, JPMorgan’s trading desk warned. Given the Fed has so far shown little sign of toning down its hawkishness, even in the face of a potential economic recession and weaker company earnings, many analysts expect equity bounces to be short-lived.

“In the back of everyone’s mind is tomorrow’s CPI print, with many investors worried that it may be as strong as the jobs report on Friday,” said Neil Campling, head of TMT research at Mirabaud Securities. “Bears are firmly in control and any rallies could be incapable of sustaining a bid for more than a few days.”

“While futures positioning is now slightly less extreme, it is still a very bearish set up into what is seen as a binary market event tomorrow,” said Carl Dooley, head of EMEA trading at Cowen in London. That makes it “natural to see some bear covering, with the remaining bulls having another roll of the dice.”

The big story overnight was the flip-flopping rollercoaster from the BOE: the yield on 30-year gilts rose above 5% for the first time since late September after the Bank of England confirmed its plan to end emergency bond purchases on Friday and a report showed the UK economy shrank unexpectedly in August. Sterling rallied more than 1% after a report from Politico that the government may make further fiscal U-turns.

“The Bank of England is a test case for how hawkish central banks can be without doing damage to financial stability,” said Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. So far the “test” is failing miserably.

In other news, Q3 earniungs season kicks off on Friday when several top Wall Street banks are set to report including JPMorgan, although analysts have already downgraded estimates for corporate America in recent weeks, a glum outlook by management teams could further pressure stocks. Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, cut her year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 3,800 from 4,200 citing a weak economic backdrop through the end of 2023. However, her new target implies a nearly 6% gain from Tuesday’s close.

In European equities, consumer products, chemicals and food & beverages are the strongest-performing sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.4% as Spain’s IBEX lagged, dropping 0.5%  Credit Suisse drops as much as 5.0%, adding to a tumultuous month for the Swiss lender, after Bloomberg reported that the Justice Department is investigating whether it continued to help US clients hide assets from authorities. Here are other notable European movers:

  • LVMH rises as much as 3.2% on stronger-than-expected organic revenue growth, signaling that the wealthy are still spending, and allaying fears of a China slowdown from Covid-19 curbs.
  • Chr. Hansen climbs as much as 15%, the most since 2012, after the Danish enzymes and food cultures manufacturer reported better- than-expected 4Q results, including a wide topline beat, Jefferies says.
  • Leonteq rallies as much as 7.8% after the company responded to a Financial Times report that had driven the stock lower in recent days.
  • Bossard rises as much as 4.2% after nine- month sales beat estimates.
  • UK domestic stocks underperform amid gilt market volatility following earlier speculation over the timing of an end to the Bank of England’s bond-buying program. Homebuilders, real estate, retail and domestic banks are among biggest decliners with Barclays falling as much as 5.3%.
  • Philips slumps as much as 12%, hitting the lowest in more than a decade, after the Dutch medical technology company cut its outlook due to worse-than-expected supply-chain difficulties, prompting analysts to doubt its ability to meet 2022 targets.
  • Kloeckner falls as much as 14%, the most intraday since May 2020, after the steel company revised its full-year guidance, which Jefferies said implies a 20%-25% reduction to consensus estimates.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities were mixed after a three-day rout, as Chinese shares rebounded in a volatile trading session, while overall sentiment remained jittery ahead of the release of the US inflation report. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an early-session loss of as much as 0.8% and traded down just 0.1% as of 5:02 p.m. in Hong Kong Wednesday, with financial shares lifting the broader market. Still, the benchmark hovered near a two-year low. Chinese stocks bounced back strongly in afternoon trading as bargain hunters piled into the nation’s battered shares, with the CSI 300 Index closing 1.5% higher, the most in two months. Investors were worried about the Covid-Zero policy and an economic slowdown despite an upbeat set of aggregate financing and loans data released on Tuesday.

“With supportive valuations and better earnings outlook, downside may be limited from current levels,” said Vey-Sern Ling, an analyst at Union Bancaire Privee. Still, “China has too many outstanding issues currently that drag investor sentiment. Investors may not be willing to buy equities given the macro uncertainties.” Sentiment also remained fragile after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank would end emergency gilt purchases as planned this week, in the face of market pressure to expend the program.  US consumer price data due Thursday will be crucial in defining the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hike at the November meeting. Economists expect inflation to top 8% again.  “The tightening of US financial conditions, global and China growth slowdowns have sharply weighed on Asian equities this year,” said Rajat Agarwal, Asia equity strategist at Societe Generale SA. “Korea and Taiwan, the two semiconductor-driven markets have been the worst affected. A fading semiconductor cycle, geopolitical issues and more recently the semiconductor exports curbs have pushed the valuations to a more than five-year low on the two markets.” South Korean stocks erased losses to close higher after the central bank pivoted back to half-point interest-rate increases

Japanese stocks closed a directionless day slightly lower, pushing losses to a third day, weighed down by electronics makers. The Topix fell 0.1% to close at 1,869.00, while the Nikkei was virtually unchanged at 26,396.83. Tokyo Electron Ltd. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 4.4%. Out of 2,168 stocks in the index, 908 rose and 1,151 fell, while 109 were unchanged.

Australian stocks snapped a three day rout, led by financial stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 index edged higher to close at 6,647.50 after a three-day drubbing, with traders awaiting US inflation data due Thursday for further clues on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Financial stocks gained, led by Bank of Queensland, offsetting losses in mining and energy stocks. Coronado Global Resources was among the top gainers after the coal miner confirmed it’s in talks with Peabody Energy on a merger. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.8% to 10,873.23.

Stocks in India gained for the first time in four sessions, helped by real estate and consumer goods companies that had seen sharp declines earlier this week. Investors will be monitoring India’s consumer inflation data for September to be released later Wednesday to gauge the outlook for local shares. Software exporter Wipro reported quarterly earnings below consensus estimates.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.8% to 57,625.91 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index was higher by an equal measure. All of BSE Ltd.’s 19 sector sub-indexes advanced.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers. the yen led G-10 losses and slipped to a fresh 24- year low of 146.43 per dollar as traders tested the resolve of Japanese authorities to intervene as key US inflation data may drive further weakness. The British pound led G-10 gains after volatile session. It earlier erased gains against the dollar while gilts extended a decline after the BOE confirmed that the bond-buying scheme will still end on Friday. Sterling had risen after the Financial Times reported that the BOE told lenders it was prepared to extend the program past Oct. 14 end date if market conditions demanded it. Bearish sentiment in the pound is the strongest in two weeks when it comes to short-term bets as hedging costs keep rallying. The euro was steady around $0.97 as Bunds and Italian bonds fell led by the long end of the curve. The Aussie inched lower.

In rates, Treasuries are mixed with the curve steeper as US trading gets under way, led by dramatic steepening in UK bond market after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey late Tuesday said the central bank’s bond buying would end this week. Focal points of US session include September PPI and 10-year auction, following cool reception for Tuesday’s 3-year. US yields little changed at front end, the 10Y yield rises by 1bp to  3.95%, steepening 2s10s by ~1.5bp, 5s30s by ~2bp. US auction cycle continues with $32b 10- year note reopening at 1pm New York time, concludes Thursday with 30-year reopening. WI 10-year yield at around 3.96% is above auction stops since 2009 and ~63bp cheaper than last month’s result. UK gilts remain near worst levels of the session with 30-year yields cheaper by ~18bp on the day and UK 2s10s, 5s30s spreads steeper by 30bp and 15bp. Australia’s bonds gained for the first day in five after RBA Assistant Governor Luci Ellis said the central bank’s neutral interest rate is likely to be at least 2.5%, compared with the current cash-rate target of 2.6%.

In commodities, WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, marginally falling to near $89.33. Polish pipeline operator said on Tuesday evening it detected a leak in the Druzhba pipeline; cause is unknown; leak detected in one of two lines, second line is working as normal. Russia’s Transfneft said it has received notice from Polish operator PERN about the leak at Druzbha; oil pumping towards Poland continues, according to IFX. Polish top official for energy infrastructure said there are no grounds to believe leak in Druzhba pipeline was sabotage, adds leak was probably caused by accidental damage. Spot gold is modestly firmer as the upside for the Buck remains capped for now, but the yellow metal remains under its 21DMA (USD 1,673.34/oz). LME metals are mixed with copper relatively flat but aluminium is underperforming following a large build in LME warehouse stocks.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading for September, along with UK GDP and Euro Area industrial production for August. From central banks, we’ll get the FOMC minutes from the September meeting, and hear from the Fed’s Barr, Kashkari and Bowman, ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Knot and De Cos, as well as the BoE’s Pill, Haskel and Mann. Finally, earnings releases include PepsiCo.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,617.00
  • MXAP little changed at 137.63
  • MXAPJ little changed at 444.71
  • Nikkei little changed at 26,396.83
  • Topix down 0.1% to 1,869.00
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 16,701.03
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.5% to 3,025.51
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 57,503.85
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,647.54
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,202.47
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 387.21
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.34%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $0.9719
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $94.55/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,671.92
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 113.12

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Giorgia Meloni’s euphoria at winning the Italian election is running into reality as the far-right leader struggles to put together a coalition government and the gas-dependent country’s financial outlook darkens
  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s blunt warning that fund managers have to cut vulnerable positions before the central bank ends debt purchases is sending a shiver around already fragile global bond markets
  • The UK economy shrank unexpectedly in August for the second time in three months, raising the possibility that the country is now in a recession. The 0.3% drop in output was driven by a sharp decline in manufacturing and a small contraction in services
  • The Bank of England has warned that some UK households may face a strain over debt repayments that is as great as before the 2008 financial crisis, if economic conditions continue to be difficult
  • Bank of England policy maker Jonathan Haskel said one of the key issues ailing the UK economy is lackluster levels of business innovation and productivity
  • The European Union is moving closer to proposing a temporary overhaul of the electricity market by limiting prices of gas used for power generation even as pressure mounts for the bloc to impose a broader cap
  • Germany’s biggest service-sector union is demanding 10.5% pay increases amounting to at least 500 euros ($486) a month for public-sector employees to avoid real losses amid record inflation

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian stocks were subdued with price action indecisive as the region took its cue from the choppy performance and late selling stateside after BoE Governor Bailey rejected industry calls for an extension to Gilt purchases, although a report from FT overnight suggested the contrary. ASX 200 was rangebound with strength in the real estate and the top-weighted financials sector offsetting the losses in tech, utilities and mining-related stocks, while there were also comments from RBA’s  Assistant Governor Ellis who suggested nominal rates have already passed neutral and that policy was no longer expansionary. Nikkei 225 lacked conviction following the disappointing Machinery Orders data although the downside was contained with Japan reportedly to draw up economic measures before month-end. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were the worst hit despite the jump in loans and financing data in China with markets constrained by lockdown concerns after China’s Xi’an announced to suspend onsite classes for some students and shut other venues, while the Shenzhen Metro suspended three stations due to coronavirus.

Top Asian News

  • US permitted at least two non-Chinese chipmakers in China to receive goods and support that are restricted under new US export rules, according to industry sources. It was later reported that SK Hynix (000660 KS) received authorisation from the US Commerce Department to receive equipment for a chip production facility in China for a year without seeking a separate permit from the US, according to Reuters.
  • China will be declared an official threat in a new strategic review of Britain’s enemies, according to The Sun.
  • RBA Assistant Governor Ellis said the neutral rate is a guide rail for policy not a destination and that the real neutral rate is uncertain but should be positive even if low which implies a nominal neutral rate of at least 2.5% for Australia, while Ellis added that policy is no longer in an expansionary place, according to Reuters.
  • BoK hiked the base rate by 50bps to 3.00%, as expected and said inflation will remain high in the 5%-6% range for a considerable time. BoK Governor Rhee said board members Joo Sang-Yong and Shin Sung-Hwan dissented at Wednesday’s rate decision, while he added that the board’s views on the rate hike pace in November differ but added that a majority of board members see the BoK’s terminal rate at 3.5%.

European bourses saw a choppy start to the session, but have since titled to the upside as US traders prepare to enter the fray. Sectors are mixed with Consumer Products bolstered by luxury names after LVMH earnings, with Tech following whilst Banks and Real Estate lag. Stateside, US equity futures trade on a firmer footing with the ES back above 3600 as the index futures attempt to claw back some of the lost ground yesterday.

Top European News

  • It was reported that the BoE signalled to lenders that it is prepared to prolong bond purchases with officials privately indicating a flexible approach if market volatility flares up, according to FT. It was later reported that BoE affirmed that its bond-buying scheme will end on Friday 14th October, via Bloomberg.
  • BoE said the bank has made it clear from the outset its temporary and targeted purchases of gilts will end on October 14th, and beyond Oct 14th, a number of facilities are in place to ease liquidity pressures on LDIs.
  • Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association said the announcement by the BoE to purchase index-linked Gilts is a positive additional intervention, while it noted that the concern of pension funds has been that the period of purchasing should not be ended too soon, according to Reuters.
  • UK’s trade deal with India is reportedly on the verge of collapse after Indian ministers reacted “furiously” to comments by Home Secretary Braverman, according to The Times.
  • There is growing speculation that UK PM Truss “could ditch yet more aspects of the mini-budget”, according to Politico’s Courea, adds “Think we’re looking at “deferring” tax cuts and maybe a further windfall tax””. However, Downing St source said that despite claims, there’s no delay to April income tax cut, former Chancellor Sunak’s corporation tax hike still is cancelled, according to a Sun reporter.
  • ECB’s Villeroy said fears of a recession must not derail ECB normalisation and that the current level of inflation requires ECB determination, while he also noted that a short recession is less detrimental than stagflation and said discussion about a 50bps or 75bps hike in October is premature amid volatile markets. Furthermore, Villeroy said the ECB may move more slowly after reaching a neutral rate and the APP unwind could begin earlier than 2024 with partial reinvestments.

FX

  • DXY is softer but off worst levels after testing levels close to 113.00 to the downside.
  • GBP was volatile but currently stands as the outperformer following speculation over the Government ‘ditching’ or ‘deferring’ more of the tax cut proposals.
  • The USD extended its bull run against the JPY to a fresh 2022 and multi-year best beyond prior Japanese intervention levels and 146.00, with little resistance from officials other than the usual verbal interjections

Fixed Income

  • Bunds slipped to a fresh intraday low on Eurex at 135.64 for an 81 tick loss on the day having been 9 ticks above par at one stage.
  • Gilts remain 100+ ticks adrift within extremes spanning 90.90-92.81 vs yesterday’s 92.83 Liffe close.
  • US Treasuries are holding steady before PPI data, 10 year note supply, FOMC minutes and further Fed rhetoric.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures are flat intraday but off the worst levels seen overnight.
  • NHC said Tropical Storm Karl is expected to strengthen today as it moves slowly over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
  • Polish pipeline operator said on Tuesday evening it detected a leak in the Druzhba pipeline; cause is unknown; leak detected in one of two lines, second line is working as normal. Russia’s Transfneft said it has received notice from Polish operator PERN about the leak at Druzbha; oil pumping towards Poland continues, according to IFX. Polish top official for energy infrastructure said there are no grounds to believe leak in Druzhba pipeline was sabotage, adds leak was probably caused by accidental damage. Germany State of Brandenburg Economy Minister said there was a pressure drop in Druzhba’s main pipeline No.2, according to dpa. Polish pipeline operator PERN said supply to German clients is continuing taking into account technical possibilities; Polish refineries are receiving oil in line with nominations.
  • SGH Macro said the understanding in Beijing is that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman assured Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that OPEC+ will cooperate to ensure that global crude oil prices do not fall below USD 80/bbl at least until the end of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, even if there is a global economic crisis.”.
  • Spot gold is modestly firmer as the upside for the Buck remains capped for now, but the yellow metal remains under its 21DMA (USD 1,673.34/oz).
  • LME metals are mixed with copper relatively flat but aluminium is underperforming following a large build in LME warehouse stocks.

Geopolitics

  • US President Biden told CNN that he doesn’t think Russian President Putin will use a tactical nuclear weapon.
  • US President Biden said the Saudis face consequences after the OPEC+ production cut, according to Bloomberg.
  • Two delegations of US congressmen led by Republican Brad Wenstrup and Democrat Seth Moulton have arrived in Taiwan and will stay until Thursday, according to Sputnik.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications -2.0%, prior -14.2%
  • 08:30: Sept. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
    • Sept. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 8.4%, prior 8.7%
    • Sept. PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
    • Sept. PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, est. 5.6%, prior 5.6%
    • Sept. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 7.3%, prior 7.3%
    • Sept. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
  • 14:00: Sept. FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Have we got 3 days to avert some kind of financial crisis here in the UK? That seemed to be the implicit message from the BoE governor Bailey last night in Washington in what were extraordinary comments that shook global markets after what was slowly turning into a pretty positive session up until the remarks less than 90 minutes before the US close.

His exact words were “My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now…. You’ve got to get this done.” He was referring to the fact that the APF purchases are slated to end on Friday and that there won’t be any extension. Whether that’s the case or not the extra actions from BoE this week and the stern words from Bailey hint at some big issues still for UK pension funds which will scare the market. Bailey’s language was also a little scary elsewhere saying that he’d been up all night addressing UK market issues and that recent market volatility went beyond their bank stress tests. I suppose the problem with all of this is that if you want pension funds to sort all their issues out in the next three days, he may have made their job a lot harder with the explicit public comments as the market will be really concerned there’s a bigger problem now than they thought beforehand. This is unlikely to help pension funds delever. So we could be in for some major volatility in UK assets for the next few days. The only caveat is that the FT reported at 5am this morning that the BoE have privately communicated to bankers that it would extend the emergency bond buying program if market conditions required it.

The first reaction to Bailey’s comments was felt in Sterling which fell -1.35% from the comments to the close (-0.79% on the day overall) landing at $1.097. Overnight it has rebounded (+0.54%) a bit as I type purely on the FT article I mentioned above. 10yr treasury yields spiked +6.6bps into the close after Bailey having been roughly unchanged immediately before the remarks (after volatile intraday moves) and global equities retreated after their own volatile session. Initially the S&P 500 fell -1.23% after the open, hitting intraday lows that were last matched in November 2020, immediately following Pfizer’s positive Covid trial results, before steadily rallying throughout the day to +0.76%, only to reverse course and nose dive into the close, finishing -0.65% lower following Bailey’s comments. The continued bout of volatility and warnings around broader financial stability saw the Vix index of volatility increase +1.2pts to 33.63pts, its highest levels since immediately before June’s financial conditions easing. Big tech stocks led the way down, with the NASDAQ falling -1.10% to hit its lowest level since July 2020. European stocks may have missed the intraday gyrations and the late US sell-off, but ended up much in the same place, with the STOXX 600 (-0.56%) down for a 5th consecutive session

Back to the UK, earlier, the Bank of England announced they were widening the scope of their daily gilt purchases to include index-linked gilts as well. The move followed some astonishing increases in real yields on Monday, which were so big that they surpassed what we saw during the market turmoil following the mini-budget, with the 10yr index-linked gilt yield rising by an incredible +64.1bps. This widening in the BoE’s intervention is now occurring alongside their existing conventional gilt purchases. 10yr Gilts closed +1.0bps, while real 10yr yields fell back -5.6bps. Nevertheless, nominal 30yr yields increased +10.9bps to 4.78%, and that was before Bailey’s comments after the close.

Elsewhere, today we start the shift back towards inflation with today’s PPI release from the US setting the stage for the all-important CPI reading tomorrow, with those prints having led to some of the biggest selloffs we’ve seen this year. There’s little doubt in markets that the Fed are going to go for another 75bps hike in 3 weeks’ time, particularly after last week’s jobs report, but there’s more uncertainty about the subsequent meetings, and any upside inflation surprises today and tomorrow could put any slowdown in rate hikes even further into the distance. Alternatively softer numbers could help encourage a big rally given bearish risk positioning.

We won’t get the producer price reading until 13:30 London time, but ahead of that we did get the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations for September, which showed a divergent picture on inflation expectations. At the one-year horizon, expectations fell back to 5.4%, which is their lowest in a year, and some further good news for the Fed. But the longer-term data was somewhat less positive, with three-year expectations ticking back up to 2.9% following three consecutive monthly declines, and five-year expectations advanced to 2.2% following four consecutive monthly declines. Clearly that could just be a blip, but well-anchored inflation expectations have regularly been cited as a reason for the Fed not moving even more aggressively, so any signs that expectations are going in the wrong direction again would raise the prospect of yet more tightening ahead.

In the meantime, Fed officials continued to strike a hawkish note in their remarks yesterday, with Cleveland Fed President Mester saying that “the larger risks come from tightening too little and allowing very high inflation to persist and become embedded in the economy”. Recall, there’s been a brewing philosophical divergence on the Committee about the risks of over-tightening given the long and variable lags of monetary policy, which should gather more steam once we get through the last two FOMC meetings in 2022, so it was instructive to hear an official come down so starkly on the other side of the balance of risks debate. That backdrop saw futures price in a 75bps hike for November as more likely than at any point to date so far, with +73.8bps priced in by the close.

Elsewhere among central bankers, we heard from ECB Chief Economist Lane as well yesterday, although he didn’t reveal much in the way of policy conclusions to draw from. One line was that he said “the ECB’s Governing Council is fully aware that further ground needs to be covered in the next several meetings to exit from the prevailing highly accommodative level of policy rates”. So a clear signal that more rate hikes are coming over the meetings ahead. Against that backdrop, sovereign bonds in Europe had oscillated between gains and losses throughout the day, in line with the volatility seen across global markets. But by the close yields had mostly fallen across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (-4.1bps) and OATs (-3.0bps) both falling back. 10yr BTPs rose +4.2bps as some of the previous day’s excitement over possible joint EU issuance to help with the energy crisis faded.

Asian equity markets are sliding again this morning with the Hang Seng (-1.92%) leading losses followed by the Shanghai Composite (-1.22%) and the CSI (-1.19%) as the rising number of Covid-19 cases has prompted Beijing to impose fresh lockdowns and travel restrictions ahead of the 20th Party Congress. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.14%) is slightly weaker with the Kospi (-0.16%) also moving lower as the Bank of Korea (BOK) raised interest rates by a half percentage point to 3%. The statement indicated that it sees upside risks to its August inflation projection for this year of 5.2%, which warrants additional rate hikes. Additionally, it warned of slower growth with the Korean economy expected to grow next year at a slower pace than the August forecast of 2.1%.

Moving ahead, US stock futures are ticking higher with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.43%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.52%) edging higher with US 10yrs -2bps overnight. In FX, the Japanese yen touched a new 24-yr low of 146.23 against the dollar.

Elsewhere yesterday, the IMF released their latest round of economic projections as the IMF/World Bank annual meetings get underway. In terms of the headlines, they left their 2022 global growth forecast unchanged at +3.2%, but their 2023 forecast was downgraded to +2.7% (vs. +2.9% in July). Those reductions were particularly concentrated in the advanced economies, with Germany seeing one of the biggest downgrades as they’re now forecasting a -0.3% contraction for 2023 (vs. +0.8% in July). They also upgraded their global inflation forecasts, and are now projecting that world consumer prices will have risen by +8.8% in 2022 (vs. +8.3% in July) and +6.5% in 2023 (vs. +5.7% in July).

Finally on the data front, the UK unemployment rate fell to 3.5% (vs. 3.6% expected) in the three months to August, which is its lowest level since 1974. In addition, the number of payrolled employees in September was up +69k (vs. +35k expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading for September, along with UK GDP and Euro Area industrial production for August. From central banks, we’ll get the FOMC minutes from the September meeting, and hear from the Fed’s Barr, Kashkari and Bowman, ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Knot and De Cos, as well as the BoE’s Pill, Haskel and Mann. Finally, earnings releases include PepsiCo.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

US equity futures trade on a firmer footing with the ES back above 3600, GBP outperforms whilst JPY lags – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 06:41 AM

  • European bourses saw a choppy start to the session, but have since titled to the upside; US equity futures trade on a firmer footing with the ES back above 3600
  • GBP was volatile but currently stands as the outperformer, DXY is softer but off worst levels, USD/JPY to a fresh 2022 and multi-year best
  • BoE said the bank has made it clear from the outset that its temporary and targeted purchases of gilts will end on October 14th
  • Polish pipeline operator said it detected a leak in the Druzhba pipeline; Polish top official said there are no grounds to believe it was sabotage
  • Looking ahead, US PPI Final Demand, FOMC Minutes, G20 Finance Ministers’ meeting, Astana Summit, Speeches from BoE’s Pill & Mann, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Kashkari, Barr & Bowman Supply from US

View the full premarket movers and news report.

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12th October 2022

  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses saw a choppy start to the session, but have since titled to the upside as US traders prepare to enter the fray.
  • Sectors are mixed with Consumer Products bolstered by luxury names after LVMH earnings, with Tech following whilst Banks and Real Estate lag.
  • Stateside, US equity futures trade on a firmer footing with the ES back above 3600 as the index futures attempt to claw back some of the lost ground yesterday.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY is softer but off worst levels after testing levels close to 113.00 to the downside.
  • GBP was volatile but currently stands as the outperformer following speculation over the Government ‘ditching’ or ‘deferring’ more of the tax cut proposals.
  • The USD extended its bull run against the JPY to a fresh 2022 and multi-year best beyond prior Japanese intervention levels and 146.00, with little resistance from officials other than the usual verbal interjections
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Bunds slipped to a fresh intraday low on Eurex at 135.64 for an 81 tick loss on the day having been 9 ticks above par at one stage.
  • Gilts remain 100+ ticks adrift within extremes spanning 90.90-92.81 vs yesterday’s 92.83 Liffe close.
  • US Treasuries are holding steady before PPI data, 10 year note supply, FOMC minutes and further Fed rhetoric.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures are flat intraday but off the worst levels seen overnight.
  • NHC said Tropical Storm Karl is expected to strengthen today as it moves slowly over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
  • Polish pipeline operator said on Tuesday evening it detected a leak in the Druzhba pipeline; cause is unknown; leak detected in one of two lines, second line is working as normal. Russia’s Transfneft said it has received notice from Polish operator PERN about the leak at Druzbha; oil pumping towards Poland continues, according to IFX. Polish top official for energy infrastructure said there are no grounds to believe leak in Druzhba pipeline was sabotage, adds leak was probably caused by accidental damage. Germany State of Brandenburg Economy Minister said there was a pressure drop in Druzhba’s main pipeline No.2, according to dpa. Polish pipeline operator PERN said supply to German clients is continuing taking into account technical possibilities; Polish refineries are receiving oil in line with nominations.
  • SGH Macro said the understanding in Beijing is that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman assured Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that OPEC+ will cooperate to ensure that global crude oil prices do not fall below USD 80/bbl at least until the end of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, even if there is a global economic crisis.”.
  • Spot gold is modestly firmer as the upside for the Buck remains capped for now, but the yellow metal remains under its 21DMA (USD 1,673.34/oz).
  • LME metals are mixed with copper relatively flat but aluminium is underperforming following a large build in LME warehouse stocks.Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • It was reported that the BoE signalled to lenders that it is prepared to prolong bond purchases with officials privately indicating a flexible approach if market volatility flares up, according to FT. It was later reported that BoE affirmed that its bond-buying scheme will end on Friday 14th October, via Bloomberg.
  • BoE said the bank has made it clear from the outset its temporary and targeted purchases of gilts will end on October 14th, and beyond Oct 14th, a number of facilities are in place to ease liquidity pressures on LDIs.
  • Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association said the announcement by the BoE to purchase index-linked Gilts is a positive additional intervention, while it noted that the concern of pension funds has been that the period of purchasing should not be ended too soon, according to Reuters.
  • UK’s trade deal with India is reportedly on the verge of collapse after Indian ministers reacted “furiously” to comments by Home Secretary Braverman, according to The Times.
  • There is growing speculation that UK PM Truss “could ditch yet more aspects of the mini-budget”, according to Politico’s Courea, adds “Think we’re looking at “deferring” tax cuts and maybe a further windfall tax””. However, Downing St source said that despite claims, there’s no delay to April income tax cut, former Chancellor Sunak’s corporation tax hike still is cancelled, according to a Sun reporter.
  • ECB’s Villeroy said fears of a recession must not derail ECB normalisation and that the current level of inflation requires ECB determination, while he also noted that a short recession is less detrimental than stagflation and said discussion about a 50bps or 75bps hike in October is premature amid volatile markets. Furthermore, Villeroy said the ECB may move more slowly after reaching a neutral rate and the APP unwind could begin earlier than 2024 with partial reinvestments.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • UK GDP Estimate YY (Aug) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.3%)
  • UK GDP Estimate MM (Aug) -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.2%)
  • UK GDP Estimate 3M/3M (Aug) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
  • EU Industrial Production MM (Aug) 1.5% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. -2.3%)
  • EU Industrial Production YY (Aug) 2.5% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -2.4%, Rev. -2.5%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US President Biden said a recession in the US is possible but any downturn would be “very slight” and that the US economy is resilient enough to ride out the turbulence.
  • Intel (INTC) is said to plan thousands of job cuts due to the PC slowdown, while its sales and marketing could see a 20% reduction in staff.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin remains steady above USD 19,000, Ethereum trades on either side of 1,300.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • US President Biden told CNN that he doesn’t think Russian President Putin will use a tactical nuclear weapon.

OTHER

  • US President Biden said the Saudis face consequences after the OPEC+ production cut, according to Bloomberg.
  • Two delegations of US congressmen led by Republican Brad Wenstrup and Democrat Seth Moulton have arrived in Taiwan and will stay until Thursday, according to Sputnik.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks were subdued with price action indecisive as the region took its cue from the choppy performance and late selling stateside after BoE Governor Bailey rejected industry calls for an extension to Gilt purchases, although a report from FT overnight suggested the contrary.
  • ASX 200 was rangebound with strength in the real estate and the top-weighted financials sector offsetting the losses in tech, utilities and mining-related stocks, while there were also comments from RBA’s Assistant Governor Ellis who suggested nominal rates have already passed neutral and that policy was no longer expansionary.
  • Nikkei 225 lacked conviction following the disappointing Machinery Orders data although the downside was contained with Japan reportedly to draw up economic measures before month-end.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were the worst hit despite the jump in loans and financing data in China with markets constrained by lockdown concerns after China’s Xi’an announced to suspend onsite classes for some students and shut other venues, while the Shenzhen Metro suspended three stations due to coronavirus.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • US permitted at least two non-Chinese chipmakers in China to receive goods and support that are restricted under new US export rules, according to industry sources. It was later reported that SK Hynix (000660 KS) received authorisation from the US Commerce Department to receive equipment for a chip production facility in China for a year without seeking a separate permit from the US, according to Reuters.
  • China will be declared an official threat in a new strategic review of Britain’s enemies, according to The Sun.
  • RBA Assistant Governor Ellis said the neutral rate is a guide rail for policy not a destination and that the real neutral rate is uncertain but should be positive even if low which implies a nominal neutral rate of at least 2.5% for Australia, while Ellis added that policy is no longer in an expansionary place, according to Reuters.
  • BoK hiked the base rate by 50bps to 3.00%, as expected and said inflation will remain high in the 5%-6% range for a considerable time. BoK Governor Rhee said board members Joo Sang-Yong and Shin Sung-Hwan dissented at Wednesday’s rate decision, while he added that the board’s views on the rate hike pace in November differ but added that a majority of board members see the BoK’s terminal rate at 3.5%.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Aug) -5.8% vs. Exp. -2.3% (Prev. 5.3%)
  • Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Aug) 9.7% vs. Exp. 12.6% (Prev. 12.8%)

i)WEDNSDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 45.71 PTS OR 1.52%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 131.39 OR 0.78%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 4.42PTS OR 0.02%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.03%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.1711 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1802//    /Oil UP TO 89.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.71    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

No trades in the Japanese bond! Why would anybody want to hold these bonds knowing full well that they must rise

in yields and thus lower in price

(zerohedge)

Nobody Has Traded 10Y Japanese Govt Bonds For 3 Days!

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 06:00 PM

No trades (none!) were reported overnight in the benchmark 10Y Japanese Government Bond (JGB) for the third straight day.

This is the longest such occurrence since 1999 when it became the benchmark.

Trading volumes in JGBs have dried up over the years as the BOJ scooped up sizable chunks of the debt to keep a cap on yields, now holding just shy of 50% of all JGBs.

Simply put, as one veteran JGB trader remarked privately to us, “there is no [cash] market anymore.”

Traders also lack the incentive to trade benchmark 10-year notes because they expect yields to rise as the Fed aggressively tightens monetary policy, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

“The BOJ’s fixed-rate operations have become the JGB trading floor,” said Katsutoshi Inadome, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo.

“Players are guaranteed to find a solid buyer who also buys large lots.”

Bid-ask spreads for JGBs have exploded since March as inflation fears ripped through global bond markets (but BoJ remains stuck in its easing policy framework)…

Finally, we note that the issue of diminishing liquidity isn’t limited to Japanese bonds.

Bank of America analysts warned in a note this month that shrinking trading volumes in the US Treasury market may be one of the greatest threats to global financial stability.

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/USA

USA firms pull staff from China’s top chip makers as the economic war intensifies.  They will be leaving China for good

(zerohedge)

US Firms Pull Staff From China’s Top Chip Maker As Economic War Worsens

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 09:04 AM

The Biden administration’s new technology restrictions are already causing disruptions in China as US semiconductor equipment suppliers are telling staff based in the country’s top memory chip maker to leave, according to WSJ, citing sources familiar with the matter. 

State-owned Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. has seen US chip semiconductor equipment companies, including KLA Corp. and Lam Research Corp., halt business activities at the facility. This includes installing new equipment to make advanced chips and overseeing highly technical chip production. 

The US suppliers have paused support of already installed equipment at YMTC in recent days and temporarily halted installation of new tools, the people said. The suppliers are also temporarily pulling out their staff based at YMTC, the people said. –WSJ 

As noted earlier this week, the US Commerce Department last Friday unveiled sweeping new regulations that limit the sale of semiconductors and chip-making equipment to Chinese customers, striking at the foundation of the country’s efforts to advance its own chip industry. The agency also added 31 organizations to its unverified list, including Yangtze Memory. 

The move is the Biden admin’s most aggressive yet as it tries to stop China from developing technological capabilities it sees as a threat. 

Bloomberg noted that Washington’s bold moves against China could extend well beyond semiconductors and into industries that rely on high-end chips, from electric vehicles and aerospace to simple gadgets like smartphones.

The two countries are now officially in an “economic war,” Dylan Patel, chief analyst at SemiAnalysis, said. A Chinese analyst said there is “no possibility of reconciliation” any longer.

KLA and Lam are vital to Yangtze Memory’s daily operations, and if the halt of US expertise to highly technical chip production tools is extended for a long enough time, this could produce supply disruptions and or the inability to develop new chips. 

Chinese state media and officials raged against Biden’s sweeping new regulations last weekend, warning of economic consequences and stirring speculation about potential retaliation. We suspect a comment from Beijing is imminent, as well as retaliation. 

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK/BANK OF ENGLAND

Very important: who is going to blink first, Bailey, Truss or the markets. This is why the GILTS, and the POUND are stable so far.

Bailey wants Truss out and eliminate the unfunded tax cuts.

a must read 

(zerohedge)

Is This The Real Driver Behind The BoE’s High Risk ‘Game Of Chicken’ With Markets?

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 08:16 AM

The brazen talk from BoE’s Bailey yesterday afternoon, stating with conviction that the “temporary” bond-buying program would in-fact end this Friday on original deadline and risking an upgraded ‘left-tail’ rates calamity through accelerated asset liquidations in a tight window, was not simply an ‘avoidance of moral hazard’ exercise from the BoE head – where the central bank would again be ‘on the hook’ to backstop Funds needing to get their liquidity / cash ‘houses in order’ and appropriately deleveraged in short-order, versus the BoE sole-priority on continuing their fight against inflation as lone mandate.

Instead, writes Nomura’s Charlie McElligott this morning,  the comments were (admittedly dangerous) gamesmanship from the BoE head back to the Truss’ government, a high risk “game of chicken” which is saying, “I’ll let markets dictate to you whether you and your budget survive” – and effectively saying that the blood will be on the Government’s hands if there is a pension disaster which will then require a later ‘bail-out’.

The Nomura strategist’s view of this 3-D Chess game being played by Bailey to force the death of the Truss / Kwarteng budget is somewhat confirmed by the price action in UK bonds and cable this morning – simply put, it’s not a bloodbath…

Gilt yields are up modestly…

Linkers are ‘steady’…

And cable is stronger…

Simply put, Bailey’s somewhat out-of-character directness overnight – which was met with reports by The FT that The Bank of England has signalled privately to bankers that it could extend its emergency bond-buying programme past Friday’s deadline, which was then immediately denied once again by BoE, confirming the deadline is now 2 days and counting – is “risking the LEFT TAIL” to increase the potential that the Truss administration / Chancellor Kwarteng are forced to either reverse or modify the unfunded tax cuts budget plan, and / or even outright resign, on broad-based “no confidence” vote from Global Markets and the UK Public.

And As McElligott further explains, that outcome – a culling or outright u-turn of the planned unfunded tax cut budget plan, and / or straight-up resignations from the government – would then be the mega “RIGHT tail” for Global Markets which has been reeling ever since the shock budget announcement was first made a few weeks ago, as it would take tremendous pressure off of Gilts and Sterling after acting as the “pressure release valves” for the incoherent meshing of exceedingly tight monetary policy running simultaneously with irresponsible fiscal largesse, of course then risking the potential for enormous squeezes across heavily-shorted Global Equities and Global Rates / Bonds thereafter in substantial RELIEF RALLY, as after all, this latest spiral in global markets did in-fact accelerate due to the UK fiscal gong-show adding gasoline to the inflation fire.

One additional underappreciated fact is that despite the ongoing “will they, won’t they” on the bond-buying program extension (or not) is that the expanded Collateral / Repo Facility WILL still be in-place and help funds address liquidity issues.

But in the Nomura strategist’s eyes, it is the very risk that the “LEFT tail” of dire Market Vol >> Systemic Pension meltdown counter-intuitively then increases the probability of a “RIGHT tail” Market outcome in an outright dumping of the Truss / Kwarteng budget’s unfunded tax cut plan – which is why today we see the market acting so “orderly” and not coming unglued as most expected, instead, with the Gilt strip UP by-and-large on the day now along with US Equities futures.

So the point here is again just how critical this “left tail threat >> right tail outcome” scenario could help break the cycle of some of this global “forced selling” feedback loop via stabilizing Fixed-Income, and allow markets to get back to the actual forward inflation data.

So who will blink first – Bailey or Truss… or the market?

end

UK //FRACKING

UK is now allowing fracking and will give households payouts for allowing drilling in their neighbourhood

(Geiger/OILPrice.com)

Cash For Fracking: UK Households May Receive Payouts For Allowing Drilling

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

  • The UK lifted its long-running ban on fracking last month.
  • UK households could soon receive cash payouts for allowing fracking in their neighborhoods.
  • Drilling companies could soon go door to door in Britain, offering money in exchange for fracking support.

UK households could soon receive cash payouts for allowing fracking in their neighborhoods, media reported on Monday.

The UK may have lifted its long-running ban on fracking last month, but its fracking industry still has one big hurdle that it must overcome: local opposition.

Fracking has been criticized for its reported ties to earthquakes and other environmental damage, and has fallen out of favor. The practice’s sullied reputation has led to its ban in several countries, including France, Germany, Spain, and until recently, the UK. 

Despite its pariah status, fracking managed to make its way into the hearts and minds of Texans to eventually become the backing behind the United States’ rise to stardom within the global oil and gas industry. Fracking was able to make inroads in the U.S. shale patch precisely because locals benefited from the fracking activity by way of receiving money from the oil and gas taxes that the states collected, which then flowed into the areas that allowed it.

That those areas benefited greatly from the fracking dollars cannot be denied. Now Britain, too, is taking a page from the U.S. shale handbook: paying households £1,000 for allowing fracking in their areas. But the money will come directly from drillers rather than from industry tax revenue.

Drilling companies could soon go door to door in Britain, according to media reports on Monday, offering money in exchange for fracking support.

When the UK’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss removed the fracking ban last month, she did so with one caveat: it would only be allowed in communities that showed at least 50% support. Drillers must now gain half the residents over to the controversial practice in order to commence drilling.

end

EU/ENERGY POLICY

EU divided over its natural gas price policy

(Slav/OilPrice.com)

The EU Is Divided Over Its Natural Gas Price Policy

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  • Internal divisions are deepening within the EU as countries attempt to lower the price of natural gas while also ensuring they secure enough of it.
  • Germany’s decision to announce a 200-billion-euro aid package to ease its domestic crisis while opposing a price cap has angered some members.
  • EU leaders are meeting again towards the end of the month, and they will aim to find a gas price policy that can please all its members and, most importantly, the sellers.

The European Union’s leaders have been hard at work trying to find ways to ensure both the security and affordability of energy in the bloc over the past few months. Initially focusing on the security part, affordability has now claimed the spotlight.

As heating season begins, EU member states are turning on each other in their increasingly desperate attempts to secure enough gas to last until spring and to ensure that it is affordable. Some believe this could indeed lead to radical measures that would lower prices. Others are not so sure.

The EU’s energy ministers have been meeting regularly over the past few weeks to discuss possible measures for ensuring the supply of gas for all member states in a situation where the largest supplier of the bloc, Russia, is gone for, many believe, good.

Norway has stepped up, so has the United States, and even the UAE has agreed to send five cargoes of LNG to Germany next year. But that’s next year. Now, Europe needs more gas, and it needs it on the cheap. Its options are not exactly unlimited.

A group of 15 member states suggested last month that the EU caps the price of all gas imports to manage its expenses. They did not comment on what LNG sellers might have to say about that idea, insisting that this was the only way to ensure gas is affordable for Europeans in what is shaping up to be the harshest winter for Europe in generations, regardless of the weather.

Then a smaller group came up with a more precise idea for the caps. The idea is to set up a so-called gas price corridor, or a range, that is lower than market prices but moves with them. According to the authors—Belgium, Greece, Italy, and Poland—this corridor could also apply to long-term contracts. Again, it seems that nobody consulted the sellers.

The Commission has spoken against price caps for non-Russian gas imports. Instead of a blanket cap, President Ursula von der Leyen proposed capping the price of natural gas used to generate electricity. Discussions continue, but hostility within the EU is growing, making the need to decide on working measures all the more urgent.

Germany, for instance, has managed to turn a lot of European states against it after it announced a 200-billion-euro aid package for businesses and households to cope with soaring energy prices. Naturally, less wealthy EU members weren’t happy with that. They were even less happy that Germany opposed a gas price cap.

“If Germany acts only on the national level what they might be doing is really compromising the economic stability of Europe and also jeopardizing the political unity,” Simone Tagliapietra, research fellow at Belgian NGO Bruegel, told the Wall Street Journal.

The WSJ noted in a report on the gas discussions in Europe that the internal tensions in the bloc could in fact help it become more decisive about crisis measures and ultimately agree to a gas price cap.

This, the authors of the report argued, would not be the best news for LNG exporters, but they could agree to sell their LNG at a lower price to avoid a deep recession in Europe that would destroy longer-term gas demand.

On the other hand, a report in Euronews quoted energy experts as warning that a price cap on gas imports would “end the market as we know it.” One of these experts, Elisabetta Cornago, a senior energy researcher at the Centre for European Reform, told Euronews that the EU was looking at gas prices without reference to other factors, and that reference needed to be made, because “Prices are high because of scarcity.” 

Indeed, capping gas prices will not be enough. There is simply not enough LNG and pipeline gas outside Russia for Europe to breeze through winter as usual. And there are not enough regasification terminals in Europe to ensure an even supply of gas across the bloc.

Under pressure, the EU is turning on the ones that do supply it with gas. Euractiv reported this month that complaints about Norway’s revenues from its higher gas exports to the bloc are growing louder. In Germany, Economy Minister Habeck and an MP separately accused the U.S. of charging too much for its LNG. Tensions are running high.

EU leaders are meeting again towards the end of the month. By then, hopes are that they will have tailored a decision on gas prices that would provide some relief to struggling economies facing a recession. 

Yet hopes are elusive. Hoping is one thing, but getting everyone to work together to make those hopes a reality is another thing altogether. With increasingly deep divisions within the bloc that has been calling for unity and solidarity in a time of adversity, it is difficult to see a workable decision being made anytime soon that would satisfy all members. And we have yet to hear from the gas sellers.

END

EU/ENERGY

Another good commentary on how Europe’s lack of Russian oil could spark the worst energy crisis in decades

(zerohedge)

Dark Days Ahead For Europe As Lack Of Russian Oil Could Spark ‘Worst Energy Crisis In Decades’

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 02:45 AM

A European ban on most crude imports from Russia will come into effect in December. For EU leaders, the next task at hand has been finding new sources of crude oil ahead of what could be a very dark and cold winter. 

The move by EU countries to endlessly sanction Russia for President Vladimir Putin’s war with Ukraine by halting crude oil imports later this year is an attempt to “make the Kremlin pay” for the invasion, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently said. Though it’s only backfired as the Kremlin’s war chest has swelled by tens of billions of dollars as energy prices hyperinflate and new buyers are found in Asia. 

EU leaders have stepped up efforts to transition from Russian energy to other energy-rich countries, though they might find it challenging to increase energy imports due to limited spare capacity worldwide.  

Monica Malik, the chief economist at the Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, told the audience at an energy security panel hosted by the Institute of International Finance in Washington, DC, on Monday that the Gulf states, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, won’t be able to increase production to replace Russian oil in Europe. 

After all, the world is moving into a much tighter oil market for the remainder of the year after OPEC+ cuts. This could unintentionally spur a supercycle in pricing as brent crude inches closer to $100 a barrel. 

So where will Europe source crude this winter if spare capacity worldwide is limited? Head of European Oil for Morgan Stanley Martijn Rats wrote in a recent note: 

“The oil market is where it is because this question is so hard to answer. If we knew, we could all breathe a little easier.”

Without spare capacity — EU leaders will find it challenging to source crude around the world because production cannot be quickly ramped up.  

Helima Croft, managing director at RBC Capital Markets LLC, warned, “I think we are facing the worst energy crisis in decades.”

Croft fears a populist backlash in Europe as sanctions against Russia has sparked a cost-of-living crisis. This could force some EU governments to focus on affordability. She said the probability of the US making deals with Venezuela or Iran to offset the energy crunch is unlikely. 

One top EU diplomat admitted: “Our prosperity has been based on cheap energy coming from Russia.” 

Europe’s energy security is in dire straits as the cold season nears. The problem with limited global capacity and higher energy costs will only strain Europe to the core. This winter, there are risks of power blackouts across the bloc as energy supplies from Russia dwindle — and the inability to rapidly increase imports from abroad. The UK warned about this scenario days ago

end

SWEDEN/RUSSIA/EUROPE/NORDSTEAM I AND II

Looks like Sweden does not want to implicate the uSA

(Watson/SummitNews)

Sweden Refuses To Share Results Of Nord Stream Pipeline Explosion Investigation With Russia

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Sweden is refusing to share the preliminary results of its official investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline explosions with Russia, asserting that the information is “confidential.”

Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said that the outcome of the inquiry into what severely damaged the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines in late September would not be revealed to Moscow.

“In Sweden, our preliminary investigations are confidential, and that, of course, also applies in this case,” Andersson told reporters.

The investigation found that the blasts were an act of sabotage, although the culprit has not been named.

The Swedish leader said that Russia was free to conduct its own investigation into the incident, adding that Sweden had removed cordons from the area.

“The Swedish economic zone is not a territory that Sweden disposes of,” said Andersson.

President Vladimir Putin, who has accused the US and Britain of carrying out an “act of international terrorism” in targeting the pipelines, reacted to Sweden’s denial of access to the investigation by insisting, “We all know well who the ultimate beneficiary of this crime is.”

As we previously highlighted, a former Pentagon advisor said the most likely culprits behind the Nord Stream pipeline blasts are the United States and Britain, and that the attack was carried out to prevent Germany from bailing on the war in Ukraine.

Douglas Macgregor suggested that the motive behind the attacks was to isolate Germany after Berlin began “to give the impression that they were no longer going to go along with this proxy war in Ukraine.”

According to a report by German magazine Der Spiegel, the CIA warned Berlin about a potential attack on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea weeks before the explosions.

However, Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin insisted that there was no evidence the US was behind the attack, but only because the Pentagon said so.

Both Joe Biden and Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland asserted that Nord Stream 2 wouldn’t be allowed to operate if Russia attacked Ukraine.

After the attack, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken welcomed the development as a “tremendous opportunity” for Europe “to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy.”

*  *  *

FRANCE:

French gas rationing begins. Refinery strikes worsen after the Government calls back essential workers

(zerohedge)

French Gas Rationing Begins As Refinery Strikes Worsen After Government Calls Back Essential Workers

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 11:05 AM

France said on Tuesday that it would “requisition” (i.e. force) essential workers to staff Exxon’s French oil depot, and threatened to do the same for Total’s French refineries if talks failed to progress. But workers at Total’s Donges refinery decided on Tuesday to strike beginning on Wednesday, the militant French union CGT said according to Reuters.

As OilPrice notes, French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said on Tuesday that the government would start the callback process for ExxonMobil’s staff at its oil depots in the country after talks between the oil company and two unions, CGT and FO, stalled. The CFDT union, however, managed on Monday to reach an agreement with Exxon.

“Today some unions, despite the deal, wants to continue the strike action and blockades, we cannot accept that,” Borne told the lower house , according to Reuters, adding that she wants “this situation to change fast,”  adding the government was prepared to take further action if needed.

“I have therefore asked the prefects, as permitted by law, to requisition the personnel needed for the functioning of the company’s depots,” she said, referring to Esso France.

“The orders are ready”, a source at the energy ministry said, adding that requisitions would only take place if the situation at the depots does not improve.

Those comments followed weekend comments by the country’s energy minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher that the government was “doing its utmost to restore the situation to normal as soon as possible.”

Meanwhile, the CGT union called the plans “violent” and suspended all ongoing negotiations with government and employers on a national level and across business sectors – and announced additional strikes at Total’s Donges refinery.

The CGT and FO unions declared strikes weeks ago at Total’s 246,900 bpd Gonfreville and 109,300 bpd Feyzin refineries, along with the Carling petrochemicals plant. The FO Now, ExxonMobil’s 219,000 bpd Donges refinery is being added to the list. The FO union had workers striking at Exxon’s 235,000 bpd Fos-Sur-Mer refinery, as well as its 270,000 bpd Port Jerome refinery, but FO called off its strike action on Monday, Argus said.

The additional striking action comes just as France prepares to order some essential workers back to the workplace.

For those who have missed our updates, here is a snapshot of the latest twists in the most serious French energy strike in years:

  • TotalEnergies’ 240,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Gonfreville refinery is offline, while deliveries of refined products are blocked at the 119,000-bpd Feyzin refinery, which is closed for unplanned maintenance but has fuel in storage, and at the Cote d’Opal and La Mede fuel depots.
  • Two Exxon Mobil refineries have also been out of action since late September.
  • France is ramping up imports to cover the production shortfall. Diesel imports for the first 10 days of October were 37% higher than the whole of October last year, Vortexa senior market analyst Pamela Munger said.
  • Esso France said it had reached a salary deal with unions on Monday. Even so, it would take time for supplies to be released, said Transport Minister Clement Beaune.
  • Esso France said the CFE-CGC and CFDT unionised workers, who represent a majority at its sites, had agreed a 6.5% salary increase in 2023 and a 3,000 euro ($2,916) bonus. Those terms meant an overall wage increase of 10.7% plus 4,000 euros in bonuses from Jan. 1, 2022, to Dec. 31, 2023, the company added.
  • The deal is among the most generous offered to workers in Europe, based on recent pay deals, and may worry companies and policymakers alike that it sets a precedent.
  • CGT said it had not signed off on the deal, and its workers remained on strike. It is demanding a 10% rise.

The strikes have exacerbated discontent within trade unions towards Macron, who this autumn delayed a final decision on his contested plans for pension reforms, wary of frustration over the cost-of-living crisis.

Meanwhile, the strikes and unplanned maintenance at refineries run by oil majors TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil have forced more than 60% of France’s refining capacity offline and blocked distribution from fuel depots. 31% of service stations throughout the country were grappling with supply problems on Tuesday.  As a result, even though France vowed there would be no rationing as recently as a few days ago

… on Tuesday gas rationing started in some regions including the Alpes-Maritime, Var and Vaucluse departments in the south.

TotalEnergies on Wednesday said it would offer to hold first talks with unions who don’t participate in the strikes, adding that the CGT union was “welcome” if it ends the walkout – a condition the union had firmly rejected as “blackmail” earlier this week. By contrast, formal wage talks have been ongoing for some weeks at Esso France, where management reached a deal with a majority of unions on Monday – but not the CGT.

The refineries stoppages in France are among the longest since the cost-of-living crisis intensified this year. They have caused snaking queues at French service stations and sent diesel refining margins to record highs in Europe and the United States. As a result, sights such as the following have become increasingly frequent:

.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/POLAND/GERMANY

(ZEROHEDGE)

Another OIL leak shuts down this pipeline

This pipeline is an oil conduit

(zerohedge)

Major Russia-Germany Oil Pipeline Partially Shut After Leak

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 07:42 AM

Update (0815ET): 

Here’s a summary of the Druzhba pipeline leak via Newsquawk

Polish pipeline operator said on Tuesday evening it detected a leak in the Druzhba pipeline; cause is unknown; leak detected in one of two lines, second line is working as normal. Russia’s Transfneft said it has received notice from Polish operator PERN about the leak at Druzbha; oil pumping towards Poland continues, according to IFX. Polish top official for energy infrastructure said there are no grounds to believe leak in Druzhba pipeline was sabotage, adds leak was probably caused by accidental damage. Germany State of Brandenburg Economy Minister said there was a pressure drop in Druzhba’s main pipeline No.2, according to dpa. Polish pipeline operator PERN said supply to German clients is continuing taking into account technical possibilities; Polish refineries are receiving oil in line with nominations.

Brent crude is up about half a percent after the news. Limited global production capacity plus the OPEC+ production cut announcement last week has recently sent crude prices near $100 a barrel.

*  *  * 

A major pipeline carrying crude oil from Russia to Germany was halted after a leak was discovered as Europe grapples with energy infrastructure issues in recent weeks.

The leak was detected on a section of the Druzhba pipeline, Europe’s largest crude oil conduit. Bloomberg said Polish operator PERN stopped flows through one of the pipeline’s northern sections. It said the leak was discovered near the village of Zurawice, about 112 miles west of Warsaw in central Poland. 

“The cause of the incident is not known for the moment. Pumping in the affected line was immediately stopped. Line 2 of the pipeline is functioning normally,” PERN said.

Poland’s top energy official, Mateusz Berger, told Reuters it appears the leak was due to “accidental damage.” 

“At this point, all PERN services (technical, operational, in-house fire brigade and environmental protection) are taking action in accordance with the algorithms provided for this type of situation,” the operator said.

Local Polish news outlet PAP quoted PERN spokeswoman Katarzyna Krasinska who said Druzhba was supplying two refineries in Germany, one in Schwedt and the other in Spergau.

So far, no disruptions have been reported at the refineries. The refinery in Schwedt supplies 90% of Berlin’s fuel. Any disruptions could lead to fuel shortages across parts of Europe’s largest economy. Reuters data shows Druzhba had flows of 490,000 barrels daily of Russian Urals oil to Europe before the leak. 

The Druzhba pipeline leak comes weeks after Russia’s Nord Stream pipelines underneath the Baltic Sea were blown up in an act of sabotage. German and EU leaders have accused Russia of sabotaging Nord Stream. 

This past weekend, someone severed cables that brought a major train network in northern Germany to a screeching halt for hours. 

Suddenly, critical infrastructure ‘accidents’ and/or sabotages appear to be increasing around Europe. Countries are racing to secure energy assets ahead of winter

END

RUSSIA/EURO/GAZPROM II

Russia is now ready to send natural gas to Europe via Nordstream no 2 if they will allow it

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Putin Says Russia Ready To Send Natural Gas To Europe Via Nord Stream 2

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 01:20 PM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Russia is ready to supply gas to Europe on the one undamaged line on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if the EU wants to start the route, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at an energy forum in Russia on Wednesday.

Russia is ready to deliver additional volumes of natural gas to Europe this winter, but the ball is in the EU’s court to decide, Putin said, as carried by the Russian news agency Interfax.

Putin also said that repairing the Nord Stream 1 and 2 lines that were found to have been sabotaged would only make sense if they will be used later, Interfax quoted the Russian president as saying.  

Nord Stream 2 was never put into operation after Germany axed the certification process following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia, for its part, shut down Nord Stream 1 indefinitely in early September, claiming an inability to repair gas turbines because of the Western sanctions.

Before the Nord Stream 1 and 2 leaks were detected at the end of September, Putin said that Russia had nothing to do with Europe’s energy crisis and that if Europe wanted more gas, it just had to “push the button” on Nord Stream 2 and “everything will get going,” that is, lift the sanctions on Nord Stream 2.

A few days later, Stephan Weil, Minister-President of the northwestern German state of Lower Saxony, said that Germany could never rely on Russia for energy supply again, and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project would never go ahead.

Another few days later, the suspected sabotage on Nord Stream 1 and 2 lines in Swedish and Danish territorial waters in the Baltic Sea put Europe on heightened alert over the security of its energy infrastructure.

Norway posted soldiers from its Home Guard to protect energy infrastructure as Western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, and its Scandinavian neighbors are increasing security following the suspected sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.

The Globalists Death Wish And The Russian Dead Hand System

Robert Hryniak9:50 AM (1 hour ago)
to

I do not know what possesses the gong show called leadership, however i do know it is not common sense.
Nuclear war is not winnable, even Putin has said this many a time. What desire there is for sure death is insane. Testing fate in the  Ukraine does nothing but cost lives.
With any action or power comes responsibility and this is clearly lacking amongst what is the worse crop of leaders i have seen.
To fight over a corrupt Ukraine which is a sideshow for hegemony with Russia is a fool’s errand. Want to extend hegemony then do by commerce and dimmish the thievery that exists?
Having real treasuries controlled by governments and not private parties is a good start.
It is time to take a boot to thieves and scoundrels and build economies for people and not political gain.

http://allnewspipeline.com/Russian_Dead_Hand_System_Globalists_Death_Wish.php

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues:

We have pointed this out to you on several occasions

(Stieber/EpochTimes)

Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Turns Negative Within Months: Study

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The effectiveness of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine against infection turns negative over time, according to a new study that was funded by the vaccine maker.

The effectiveness of three doses—a primary series and a booster—against infection remained above 50 percent after 150 days against BA.1, a subvariant of the Omicron virus variant, researchers estimated.

But against more recent strains, including the currently-dominant BA.5, the effectiveness turned negative.

Against BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5, the effectiveness went negative after 150 days.

Against BA.1.12.1, the effectiveness turned negative after 91 days.

Negative effectiveness means a vaccinated person is more likely to contract COVID-19, the disease the virus causes, than an unvaccinated person.

Researchers with Moderna and Kaiser Permanente, who carried out the study, also found that people who received three Moderna doses were more likely to become infected when compared to people who received just two doses.

Researchers said that they attempted to reduce potential bias by taking actions such as adjusting for comorbidities, but that some confounding may remain.

They said that some of the negative effectiveness estimates “could be due to differential risk behaviors among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals when protection from antibodies becomes minimal.”

Hung Fu Tseng, a researcher with Kaiser Permanente Southern California and the study’s corresponding author, declined to provide evidence for the statement or otherwise comment on the negative effectiveness estimates.

“The manuscript is under review by a journal. I can’t comment on your questions now. I can, however, answer your question[s] when it is accepted,” Tseng told The Epoch Times in an email.

The study was published ahead of peer review on medRxiv, a preprint server. Researchers reached the numbers after analyzing data from Kaiser Permanente Southern California, which provides health care and insurance to millions of members.

Moderna did not respond to a request for comment.

Read more here…

end

Unbelievable!! Pfizer exec admits under oath that the company never tested COVINE vaccine against transmission

(zerohedge)

Pfizer Exec Admits Under Oath: ‘We Never Tested COVID Vaccine Against Transmission’

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 08:51 AM

A senior Pfizer executive has admitted under oath that the company never tested their Covid “vaccine” to see if it prevented transmission…

As Jack Phillips reports via The Epoch Times, member of the European Parliament, Rob Roos, asked during a session: 

“Was the Pfizer COVID vaccine tested on stopping the transmission of the virus before it entered the market? Did we know about stopping immunization before it entered the market?”

Pfizer’s Janine Small, president of international developed markets, said in response:

“No … You know, we had to … really move at the speed of science to know what is taking place in the market.”

Roos, of the Netherlands, argued in a Twitter video Monday that following Small’s comments to him, millions of people around the world were duped by pharmaceutical companies and governments.

“Millions of people worldwide felt forced to get vaccinated because of the myth that ‘you do it for others,’” Roos said.

“Now, this turned out to be a cheap lie” and “should be exposed,” he added.

“If you don’t get vaccinated, you’re anti-social. This is what the Dutch Prime Minister and Health Minister told us,” Roos said.

“You don’t get vaccinated just for yourself, but also for others—you do it for all of society. That’s what they said.”

But that argument no longer holds, Roos explained.

“Today, this turns out to be complete nonsense. In a COVID hearing in the European Parliament, one of the Pfizer directors just admitted to me—at the time of introduction, the vaccine had never been tested on stopping the transmission of the virus.”

The Epoch Times has contacted Pfizer for comment.

What Was Said

The Food and Drug Administration wrote in late 2020 that there was no data available to determine whether the vaccine would prevent transmission and for how long it would protect against transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19.

“At this time, data are not available to make a determination about how long the vaccine will provide protection, nor is there evidence that the vaccine prevents transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from person to person,” the agency specifically noted.

Meanwhile, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, around the same time, said his firm was “not certain” if those who receive its mRNA vaccine will be able to transmit COVID-19 to other people.

”I think this is something that needs to be examined. We are not certain about that right now,” Bourla told NBC News in December 2020 in response to a question about transmissibility.

Former White House medical adviser Dr. Deborah Birx in June revealed that there was evidence in December 2020 that individuals who received COVID-19 vaccines, including Pfizer’s, could still transmit the virus.

“We knew early on in January of 2021, in late December of 2020, that reinfection was occurring after natural infection,” Birx, the White House COVID-19 response coordinator during the Trump administration, told members of Congress this year.

‘Not Going to Get COVID’

A number of officials in the United States and around the world had claimed COVID-19 vaccines could prevent transmission. Among them, President Joe Biden in July 2021 remarked that “you’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations.”

President Joe Biden speaks, flanked by White House Chief Medical Adviser on COVID-19 Dr. Anthony Fauci, during a visit to the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md., on Feb. 11, 2021. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

Chief Biden administration medical adviser Anthony Fauci in May 2021 said in a CBS interview that vaccinated people are “dead ends” for COVID-19, suggesting they cannot transmit the virus.

“When you get vaccinated, you not only protect your own health and that of the family but also you contribute to the community health by preventing the spread of the virus throughout the community,” Fauci said.

Two months later, in late July of that year, Fauci said that vaccinated people are capable of transmitting the virus.

In the coming months, Fauci, Biden, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, and others pivoted to say the vaccine prevents severe disease, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19.

GLOBAL ISSUES

Intel to fire thousands as Biden signs chips stimulus bill!!

Intel To Fire Thousands Just Weeks After Biden Signs CHIPS Stimulus Bill

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 09:20 PM

With the personal computer market crashing at an unprecedented pace, and with Intel stock losing two-thirds of its value in the past year and plunging to 10-year lows…

…  Intel – which is just days from becoming the target of some activist hedge fund campaign – is planning a “major reduction” in headcount, numbering in the thousands according to Bloomberg, to cut costs and cope with the suddenly disintegrating PC market.

The layoffs will likely be announced around the time the company reports its Q3 earnings on Oct. 27, said Bloomberg sources. And there will be quite a few to pick from: the chipmaker had 113,700 employees as of July, or a roughly 1 worker for every market cap in value (INTC’s market cap closed at a 8-year-low of $102.8 billion today). Some divisions, such as Intel’s sales and marketing group, could see cuts affecting about 20% of staff, the report noted.

Besides the dismal macro environment which has crippled demand for PC processors, its main business, Intel has also struggled to win back market share lost to rivals like AMD and Nvidia. In July, the company warned that 2022 sales would be about $11 billion lower than it previously expected. Expect another ugly last-minute preannouncement, or even uglier Q4 and full year guidance. Analysts are predicting a third-quarter revenue drop of nearly 20%; meanwhile Intel’s once-enviable margins have also shriveled: amid the ongoing inventory liquidations and surging commodity prices, they’re about 15 percentage points narrower than historical numbers of around 60%.

During its second-quarter earnings call, Intel acknowledged that it could make changes in its business to improve profits. “We are also lowering core expenses in calendar year 2022 and will look to take additional actions in the second half of the year,” Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger said at the time.

Intel’s last big wave of layoffs occurred in 2016, when it trimmed about 12,000 jobs, or 11% of its total. The company has made smaller cuts since then and shuttered several divisions, including its cellular modem and drone units. Like many companies in the technology industry, Intel also froze hiring earlier this year, when market conditions soured and fears of a recession grew. And now it is moving to the inevitable final stage of rightsizing: mass layoffs.

As Bloomberg notes, “it’s a particularly awkward moment for Intel to be making cutbacks. The company lobbied heavily for a $52 billion chip-stimulus bill this year, vowing to expand its manufacturing in the US. Gelsinger is planning a building boom that includes bringing the world’s biggest chipmaking hub to Ohio.”

Well, so much for Biden’s stimulus. Oh well, at least it can be redirected to support the pristine, uncorrupted administration in Ukraine.

US tensions with China also have clouded the chip industry’s future. The Biden administration announced new export curbs on Friday, restricting what US technologies companies can sell to the Asian nation.

David Zinsner, Intel’s chief financial officer, said after the company’s latest quarterly report that “there are large opportunities for Intel to improve and deliver maximum output per dollar.” The chipmaker expected to see restructuring charges in the third quarter, he said, signaling that cuts were looming. 

What about others? Well, notable chipmaker competitors such as Nvidia and Micron have said they’re steering clear of layoffs for now, but expect that to change very soon. But other tech companies, such as Oracle Corp. and Arm Ltd., have already been cutting jobs.

Of course, none of this will impact the absolute datamockery which the BLS engages in every month and we fully expect the October jobs report, due just days before the midterm election, to show hundreds of thousands of farcically bullshit job gains. And just as predictably, once the midterms are in the rearview mirror and the government can again report the truth, we expect revisions will confirm that the US economy is currently losing several hundred thousand workers every month, a number which will only rise as the Fed triggers the worst global recession since the financial crisis.

end

PAUL ALEXANDER…

we need them to come forward and tell their story

Doctors in America & Canada are coming to us silently, scared, telling us yes, they were denied to try treatments off-label, & they were offered & given fake VACCINE cards by hospitals from March 2021

So that they would not be laid off due to mandates etc. So hospital CEOs etc. would give them fake cards & some told us they took it for they would not take the shot; some refused shot & card

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 11
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

We are working with them to come forth, they seek us out and want to but scared and we had had several who came out and stepped back due to fear of safety and career etc. But we are working with them,

end

CHINA in big trouble & cannot get out of the box they put themselves in, the government & public health leaders are psychotic insane idiots! ZERO-COVID madness, failed VACCINE, no background immunity

The idiots, the morons there do not understand, extending & hardening lockdowns i)is worthless ii)destroy society, nothing left to emerge to iii)denies natural exposure immunity & thus herd iv) starve

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 11
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

By locking down so hard, you place the virus under massive pressure and it will evolve and adapt to any pressure you place on it, evolving (via selection mutational pressure) its infectiousness and virulence.

The Chinese government is setting up the population for a nightmare as have little background immunity to rely on in the future and thus with ZERO COVID, will never ever open up, as will always have infection, these are what we can call ‘BRANCH Covidians’, similar to the Branch Davidians as both were and are being killed by their own governments, needlessly.

end

Pay attention to these guys:

Sucharit Bhakdi, MD & Arne Burkhardt, MD: “On COVID vaccines: why they cannot work, & irrefutable evidence of their causative role in deaths after vaccination”; they could not work; can’t hit mucosae

secretory IgA produced by immune cells just underneath mucous membranes that line respiratory & intestinal tract, where virus lands vs IgG & circulating IgA occur in the blood (due to muscle injected)

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 10
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

A fundamental mistake underlying the development of the COVID-19 vaccines was to neglect the functional distinction between the two major categories of antibodies which the body produces in order to protect itself from pathogenic microbes. The first category (secretory IgA) is produced by immune cells (lymphocytes) which are located directly underneath the mucous membranes that line the respiratory and intestinal tract. The antibodies produced by these lymphocytes are secreted through and to the surface of the mucous membranes.

These antibodies are thus on site to meet air-borne viruses, and they may be able to prevent viral binding and infection of the cells. The second category of antibodies (IgG and circulating IgA) occur in the bloodstream. These antibodies protect the internal organs of the body from infectious agents that try to spread via the bloodstream. Vaccines that are injected into the muscle – i.e., the interior of the body – will only induce IgG and circulating IgA, not secretory IgA. Such antibodies cannot and will not effectively protect the mucous membranes from infection by SARS-CoV-2. Thus, the currently observed “breakthrough infections” among vaccinated individuals merely confirm the fundamental design flaws of the vaccines. Measurements of antibodies in the blood can never yield any information on the true status of immunity against infection of the respiratory tract.’

end

Open in browser‘Organ Transplant Failures After COVID Vaccination’; In 2022, researchers have published articles in the medical literature reporting organ transplant failures in people who have recently…received COVID-19 shots. These reports include corneal graft rejections and solid organ transplant failures involving the kidneys, livers, lungs, hearts and pancreas.’
end

Big story!!

Pfizer executive NOW says that they knew it could not stop transmission & they never tested it; WHAT? it shows what we always knew, it was all a lie day one, thus no need ever for VAX mandates

This was power hungry greedy malevolent people, that we must punish, we must place Bourla and Bancel in chains if shown all of this is true, these are criminals! They product killed people!

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 12
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

It was all a lie about take the vax to protect others for they knew it could not do that. This was about vaccine passports and malfeasance!

SOURCE:

https://www.theflstandard.com/pfizer-executive-covid-vaccine-was-never-tested-on-stopping-transmission/


VACCINE IMPACT/

Kiev Introduces Rolling Blackouts and Stops Exporting Electricity to Europe as Western Media Still Claims Russia is the One Suffering

October 11, 2022 4:05 pm

The fighting in Ukraine has escalated this week, as Russia has reportedly started a new bombing campaign against key infrastructures in many cities inside Ukraine as a response to an alleged bombing of a key Crimean bridge. If one only gets their “news” from the Corporate Media, it would appear that this is an act of desperation by Putin in a failing war for Russia. One of these headlines is from The Independent in the UK which reads: “Putin is gambling that the West will abandon Ukraine – we won’t – Western Europe faces its most difficult winter since the end of the Second World War – but is prepared to make the sacrifices, rather than be forever held hostage by Russia.” If you live in “Western Europe,” does this editorial represent your sentiment on this war? Are you prepared to “make the sacrifices” this winter to not be “held hostage by Russia?” Here are what should be the real headlines for the past few days as this war quickly escalates, but that the Corporate Media is either not reporting or only reporting as non-headline news. First, Kiev’s power grid was so badly damaged in these recent attacks, that the capital city of Ukraine is now going through rolling blackouts, and the Ukraine Energy Ministry announced yesterday that it had to stop exporting electricity to Europe, as energy supplies for Europe are quickly disappearing. Secondly, the deal that Turkey recently helped broker to allow Ukraine wheat to be exported through the Black Sea may now be in jeopardy, which could lead to rising food prices globally.

Read More…


Pfizer and the FDA NEVER Claimed Their COVID-19 Vaccine Stopped Transmission – This is NOT News Today!

October 11, 2022 9:42 pm

My news feed and my inbox in my email program have been flooded with links to stories reporting what so many in the Alternative Media today are claiming is BREAKING NEWS: Pfizer’s COVID Vaccine was Never Tested on Preventing Transmission! The source of this “Breaking News” is apparently a Dutch Member of the European Parliament, Rob Roos. Well I have some news for all of you emailing me this story: This is NOT news! Pfizer and the FDA have NEVER claimed that their COVID-19 stopped transmission of COVID, and this information has been readily available to the public since the beginning when the shot was first given an EUA. It has ALWAYS been a lie propagated by the Corporate Media and the criminal CDC, and we have exposed this lie many times in the past. A few months after the shots were authorized by the FDA, Barbara Loe Fisher, the co-founder of The National Vaccine Information Center, which is the leading vaccine consumer advocacy group in the world and has been in existence for over 30 years, wrote what was by far the most comprehensive review of these new shots where she warned the public, among other things, that these vaccines were never even intended to stop transmission! In November of 2021, we reported that even the director of WHO told the Brazilian President that the COVID shots were not designed to stop transmission. So with all due respect to Mr. Roos, this is OLD NEWS, and is certainly not a “smoking gun.”  The fact that so many people are getting worked up into a frenzy over this today just proves that people in the beginning did not do their homework and research for themselves the public information that was available about these shots, and sadly, that included MANY in the medical field who were recommending them!!

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY

end 

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

A must read.

Michael Every’s take on Bailey’s statement

(zerohedge)

What We Are Seeing In The UK Is Decades-Long Hyper-Financialisation Being Unwound On Fast-Forward At Gunpoint

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 10:03 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

“Whatever it takes… until Friday”

I rose early today with a nagging suspicion I was going to have to focus on the BOE. How right I was! And how right everyone will be to pay attention too. What we are seeing in real time in the UK is a decades-long hyper-financialisation of the economy being partly unwound on fast-forward at gunpoint; and/or a trigger for a multi-decade market hyper-crash on fast-forward; or both. And more to boot if you extend your view wider.

The BOE had already been forced to step in again yesterday to add ‘Linkers’ (inflation-linked Gilts, which really should be doing better than non-inflation-linked ones given what inflation is doing) to the list of securities it is prepared to step in and buy. That was a dramatic intervention, following equally dramatic market movements, where 5-year Linker real yields had surged 50bp in one session – EM action in one of the world’s leading financial centres, in a G7 economy that issues its own currency. (Which is ironically part of the problem in this case.)

Yet then things got really serious (and thanks to our Gilts Meister Stefan Koopman for additional help for sleep-deprived eyes here). At an IIF event in Washington, DC, BOE Governor Bailey admitted what is plainly visible: the Bank’s interventions in the Gilts market show its monetary policy objective and its financial stability mandate are pulling in opposite directions. That is bad enough, and more so when the government’s fiscal policy and monetary policy are also pulling in opposite directions.

Bailey then stated to pension and LDI (Liability-Driven Investment) funds: “You’ve got three days left now,” to exit problematic positions. “You’ve got to get this done. The essence of financial stability is that it is temporary. It’s not prolonged.” In other words, restructure the entire industry by Friday by selling whatever is needed, then the BOE quits the “QE R US” game!

That is outright dangerous and clearly makes Gilts a target. Time-limited central bank backstops NEVER work –“Whatever it takes… until Friday”– and the whole idea of being a lender of last resort is you will ALWAYS be there. Stefan expects a U-turn after a lot of unnecessary damage has been done – which we can presume will start today as a financial storm like the physical one that just hit Florida. So, why is the BOE doing this when it must know what is about to unfold?

Looking through a microscope, the BOE may be following the UK government ‘EM’ lead.

Looking through a telescope –and assuming Bailey has read Bagehot– one must conclude the BOE is instead putting pressure on the government in a game of chicken, i.e., to reverse more tax cuts and be more serious about fiscal policy in general. That means the unelected independent central bank is setting fiscal policy: which may sound shocking in the UK, because it is dangerously European.

That would make sense if the BOE, like most central banks, hadn’t been prepared to buy any government debt moving –or unmoving, given nobody has traded JGBs for three sessions in a row, apparently– until now; and if didn’t just narrowly avoid becoming a government target over creating the mess we are now in – unless the Old Lady doth now protest too much as a result.

Looking through a hypothetical macroscope, one can see several key linkages.

Why are sharp falls in the value of Gilts so dangerous to boring old UK pension funds? Yes, they have taken big losses, and they mark-to-market, yet stocks and sectors go down like that all the time, and markets get through with a ‘bad year’ and so systemic risk: ask China and Cathie Wood.

Sadly, LDI may also stand for Leveraged Dangerous Instruments: by implication, many funds are highly leveraged again (as pre-2008), and exposed to derivatives using dazzling math to pretend above-benchmark returns can be created risk-free from thin air again (as pre-2008). This always ends badly after a “whocouldanooed?” event not factored into the equation – which is usually an anyone couldanooed: “Russia can’t raise rates!” – 1998; “The US can’t raise rates!” – 2008; “The UK can’t raise rates!” – 2022. Raise your game, people!

Consider this: Bailey was presumably not speaking alone given he was in DC at the IIF, not in the pub. Perhaps the BOE is sending the united message that the game has changed, Volcker style. Because don’t for one moment think only the UK is in this particular pickle: it isn’t. Similar funds have used similar strategies all over. All will need to be unwound at some point. So, the *global* message may be that markets *must* unwind trades that are going to fail anyway as rates rise and stay high, with a brief central-bank backstop.

Then they will have to reinvest AUM and future inflows into boring old bonds yielding much more (e.g., 4.80% for the 30-year yield at time of writing: it could be 50bp higher or lower shortly). While less than half the rate of inflation now, that is still better than a guaranteed loss when an LDI strategy implodes. It also offers a way to rebuild returns again after the huge fall almost all portfolios are going to take this year. Try compounding 5% over many years, presuming inflation comes back down again. It’s not so scary; it’s just not as sexy as get-rich-quick schemes based on leverage and derivatives.

But why aren’t we just seeing less Bagehot and more Draghi “Whatever it takes” bag-holding? Because the game may really have changed globally. Wars do that. Economic wars do that, especially when commodities are being touted as alternative stories of value to fiat money flowing via QE from central banks into asset prices held mostly by the top 1% of Western society. Indeed, as I have written repeatedly of late, a financialised Western economy is not one that is capable of sustaining a war or an economic war. (And neither is one prepared to keep draining its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, entirely coincidentally around mid-term elections: the snap-back is going to be a shock to markets perhaps requiring even sharper tightening of monetary policy.)

If the BOE is playing chicken with the UK government, note the UK government is itself playing chicken with geopolitics. Reportedly, PM Truss will today designate China as a “threat” alongside Russia and North Korea: a few years ago, China was going to build British nuclear power stations. That stance is going to cost money in many sense of the term. Of course, the BOE saying that it won’t backstop government spending via QE runs counter to my MMT + rate hikes theory: but once markets have been ‘restructured’, that war-economy bridge can be crossed… or not.

Anyway, markets are going to hate what the BOE said. And? And nothing. Markets will hate it. Meanwhile, the war and economic war will roll on, and over the top of those not paying attention to what now matters most to policymakers.

There does appear to be recognition the world is changing in some corners. The Financial Times is carrying an excellent series of articles about the end of globalisation alongside the usual op-ed jazz-handsery of how this can all be effortlessly avoided. The New York Times notes ‘Biden Proposal Could Lead to Employee Status for Gig Workers’, which sounds like disruption to me. The Swiss are tapping Fed swap-lines again – a path many more will soon be following.

Even EU foreign policy chief Borrell gave a recent speech in which he noted: “…uncertainty is the rule. Events that one could imagine that they will never happen, they are happening one after the other. At this pace, the black swan will be the majority. It will not be white swans –all of them will be black– because one after the other, things have happened that had a very low probability of happening, nevertheless they happened, and they had a strong impact and certainly they happened.

Our prosperity was based on China and Russia – energy and market… but the fact that Russia and China are no longer the ones that [they] were for our economic development will require a strong restructuring of our economy…. On the other hand, we delegated our security to the United States.”  

Well done for seeing the truth ten years too late: but no sarcasm there, really, as by contrast German Chancellor Scholz is about to head off to China with a delegation of businesspeople saying he absolutely won’t decouple. Just as he won’t allow EU debt mutualisation during an economic war; or arm Ukraine much; or re-arm Germany with much urgency; or rustle up magical new energy in the short term, as the IMF warns Europe that winter 2023 will likely be far more difficult than winter 2022. Then again, who is looking to Germany for any leadership on anything right now? Nobody: and expect things to get worse on that front if it is gradually deindustrialised by soaring energy prices.

But I digress. Let’s not let the rapid implosion in EU norms eclipse the three-day window that the BOE has just unleashed with its “Whatever it takes… until Friday.”

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

END

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.97078 UP   0.0007 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL MIXED  

USA/ YEN 145.59   DOWN  0.079 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1085 UP   0.0005

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 45.71 PTS OR 1.53% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED  DOWN 131.33 POINTS OR 0.78% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.03%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 131.33 PTS OR 0.78%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 45.71 PTS OR 1.53%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.03% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 4.42 PTS OR 0.02%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1667.50

silver:$19.16

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 113.17 UP 3  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.40% UP 3  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.248% UP 0 AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.49%//  UP 2 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.75  UP 6   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.3155% UP 1 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.96915 DOWN .0009   or 14 basis points

USA/Japan: 146.901 UP 1.013 OR YEN DOWN 102 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1089 UP .0125 OR  125 BASIS POINTS 

Canadian dollar DOWN .0007 OR 4 BASIS pts  to 1.3799

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 7.1750

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.1807

TURKISH LIRA:  18.59  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.248

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1  IN basis points from TUEDAY at  3.935% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.907  UP 1  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 113.22 UP 9 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 59.08 PTS OR  0.86%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 647.99POINTS OR 0.39%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 14.73 PTS OR 0.25% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 94.80 OR  1.29%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 263.73PTS OR  1.29%

WTI Oil price 87.15  12: EST

Brent Oil:  91.87   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  64.41 DOWN 0  AND 75/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.315

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.97045 UP .0004     OR  4  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1099 UP  .01357 or  135 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.86 UP .965//YEN DOWN 97 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3809 UP 0.0018  (CDN dollar, DOWN 18 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 87.18

Brent OIL:  92.37

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 3.900%

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 3.892%

USA dollar index:113.134 UP  .02 CENTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.57

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  64.42  DOWN 0 AND   76/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 36.31 PTS OR 0.12 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 135.62 PTS OR 1.24%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 33.75 UP 1.30 PTS (4.01)%

GLD: $155.16 DOWN 0.32 OR 0.21%

SLV/ $17.68  DOWN $.41 OR 2.27%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Markets Tread Water Ahead Of CPI Chaos, Shrug Off Hawkish Minutes

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 04:01 PM

An unexpected lack of chaos in the UK started the day off somewhat brightly but PPI hotter than expected and a hawkish Fed Minutes did not help that sentiment continue.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1478810051636826121&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fmarkets-tread-water-ahead-cpi-chaos&sessionId=71af7c48324d52c603980ed35956668ca1265720&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1c23387b1f70c%3A1664388199485&width=550px

UK Gilt yields tumbled after early weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

Fed rate-trajectory expectations were unmoved by the FOMC Minutes…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks fell on the hotter than expected PPI, bounced around the EU close, then oscillated in a small range after The FOMC Minutes…

S&P and Nasdaq down 6 days in a row now after that late-day puke.

S&P closed at its lowest since Nov 2020 (down over 25% from the highs)

VIX was bid today back above 34, likely driven by positioning ahead of tomorrow…

Bonds were bid, accelerating after The Fed Minutes interestingly enough, with the belly outperforming (5Y -6bps). On the week, 5Y is the best (-3bps) while 30Y is worst (+4bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dipped on the FOMC Minutes but was quickly bid back to end basically unchanged on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was very quiet today finding support at $19000 again…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was down for a 3rd straight session amid OPEC/EIA cutting global demand growth expectations (ahead of API data tonight after the close)…

Gold gained modestly on the day, rallying after The Fed Minutes hit but giving that spike back before the cash equity market closed…

Finally, as we noted earlier, while history is an unreliable guide, prior CPI-day sessions have been rough for equity bulls, with the S&P 500 falling in seven of the nine instances this year…

Consensus expects to see inflation increase 8.1% from a year ago in September. Anything above the prior reading of 8.3% could put the stock market at risk of a quick 5% tumble, according to JPMorgan’s trading desk.

As SpotGamma notes, since the October monthly OPEX deltas are fairly large, there is plenty of fuel to extend the CPI reaction to a large 5% rally, or push us down to the 3500 Put Wall. The key insight here is this CPI trigger will spark a multi-session directional trend into October OPEX.

Recall that headlines matter more in large negative gamma regimes, where algos spark an initial reaction which is reinforced by options hedging flows.

After October OPEX we arrive to another window of catalysts including various global central bank meetings, an FOMC and US midterm elections. Therefore we view the CPI reaction as fairly limited in duration (i.e. into Oct OPEX).

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//

END

AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC MINUTES

FOMC Minutes Show Hawkish Fed Warn “Cost Of Doing Too Little Outweigh Cost Of Doing Too Much”

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 02:04 PM

Tl;dr: FOMC Minutes confirmed the hawkish FedSpeak of the last week or so – Fed will push rates higher until something breaks:

Mohamed El-Erian sees the Minutes this way: “The text is as expected to a little hawkish on inflation versus growth/jobs; and just a passing reference to liquidity conditions”

*  *  *

Since the September 21st 75bps rate-hike by The Fed, stocks and bonds have been clubbed a baby seal while the dollar rallied and gold is flat…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields are 33-38bps higher across the curve since the last FOMC meeting with very little in the way or flattening or steepening from the current hugely inverted regime.

Perhaps more notably, market expectations for The Fed rate-trajectory have shifted significantly more hawkish. Terminal rate expectations are higher and subsequent rate-cut expectations are lower (which is what The Fed wanted)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, financial conditions have tightened significantly (again as The Fed wanted), now at their ‘tightest’ since the trough of the COVID lockdown crisis (and before that, the tightest since Jan 2016)…

Source: Bloomberg

So given that The Fed appears to be getting its way with market expectations, we would not expect any major narrative surprises to be placed in the Minutes today, with traders watching for any commentary that suggests how long rates should be held at terminal for, and what conditions would ensue such a pause or even a future rate cut.

Notably, the tone of recent Fed language has suggested more hikes until inflation is confidently on its way back down to 2%, with officials pushing back on the idea of a pivot any time soon given their commitment to bringing inflation down.

Here’s the highlights from The FOMC Minutes :

Many participants emphasized “cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation outweighed cost of taking too much action.”

On higher rates for longer:

“Many participants noted that with inflation well above the Committee’s 2 percent objective and showing little sign so far of abating, and with supply and demand imbalances in the economy continuing, they had raised their assessment of the path of the federal funds rate that would likely be needed to achieve the Committee’s goals.”

On data dependence:

“Participants judged that the pace and extent of policy rate increases would continue to depend on the implications of incoming information for the outlook for economic activity and inflation and on risks to the outlook”

On dollar strength:

“The dollar’s strength largely reflected increasing investor concerns about the global growth outlook as well as widening interest rate differentials between the United States and Japan.”

On economic resilience:

“Most participants remarked that, although some interest-sensitive categories of spending — such as housing and business fixed investment — had already started to respond to the tightening of financial conditions, a sizable portion of economic activity had yet to display much response.”

On accepting recession:

“Participants noted that a period of below-trend real GDP growth would help reduce inflationary pressures and set the stage for the sustained achievement of the Committee’s objectives of maximum employment and price stability.”

MBS sale discussed but no conclusion again:

“A couple of participants remarked that, after the process of balance sheet reduction was well under way, it would be appropriate for the Committee to consider sales of agency MBS.

On diminished liquidity in Treasuries and in mortgage-backed securities:

“The markets for Treasury securities and agency MBS continued to function in an orderly manner, though liquidity conditions in both markets remained low, reflecting elevated interest rate uncertainty.”

And finally, The Fed also appears to be waking up to the risk it is creating…

“Several participants noted that, particularly in the current highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, it would be important to calibrate the pace of further policy tightening with the aim of mitigating the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook.”

ii) USA DATA/

PPI hotter than expected as well as food costs

(zerohedge)

Food Cost Jump Sparks Hotter Than Expected US Producer Price Inflation

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 08:38 AM

PPI is the under-card ahead of tomorrow’s main event CPI print, but nevertheless will offer some insights into how the inflation picture is evolving in the US and is expected to slow at the headline level but flat at the core level.

The headline PPI printed +8.5% YoY (which was hotter than the expected +8.4% YoY) but down from August’s 8.7% (jumping 0.4% MoM after 2 straight months lower)…

Source: Bloomberg

Ex-Food, Energy, & Trade, PPI rose 0.4% MoM (double the expected +0.2%).

Both Goods and Services PPI are rising with Food increases dominating…

Over a quarter of the September increase in the index for final demand services can be traced to a 6.4-percent advance in prices for traveler accommodation services

Food cost inflation is still up a stunning 11.90% YoY…

Finally, we note that the pipeline of PPI pain is easing further as intermediate goods inflation eased further…

Source: Bloomberg

There’s nothing here to prompt a pivot from The Fed.

end

U.S. mortgage interest rates rise to highest level since 2006

(Reuters) – The average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose to its highest level since 2006 as the housing sector continued to bear the brunt of tightening financial conditions, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday.

Mortgage rates have more than doubled since the beginning of the year as the Federal Reserve pursues an aggressive path of interest rate hikes to bring down stubbornly high inflation.

Those actions, designed to cool the economy sufficiently to curb price pressures, have weighed heavily on the interest-rate-sensitive housing sector as expectations for Fed tightening have led to a surge in Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year note acts as a benchmark for mortgage rates.

The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by 6 basis points to 6.81% for the week ended Oct. 7 while the MBA’s Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell 2.0% from a week earlier and is down roughly 69% from one year ago.

Its Purchase Index, a measure of all mortgage loan applications for purchase of a single family home, fell 2.1% from the prior week and is 39% lower than a year ago, while MBA’s refinance Index declined 1.8% last week and is down 86% from one year ago.

Homebuilding and sales have weakened significantly in recent months, with home resales posting seven straight months of declines. However, home prices remain high even as house price growth slows, eroding affordability for buyers who are still competing due to a shortage of properties for sale

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

A great sign of faltering demand; Trans Pacific shipping rates plunge by 75%

(zerohedge)

Trans-Pacific Shipping Rates Plunge 75% As US Retail Demand Falters

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 08:00 PM

The problem with price inflation is that it often makes it impossible to track the true health of consumer demand.  For example, in August of this year Walmart reported a jump is overall sales, but also a decline in profits.  How is this possible?  Spiking inflation in most goods means people have to pay more for the same amount of stuff they usually buy.  But, Walmart also has to deal with higher wholesale prices and declining customer purchases as people start to make cuts to their retail budgets.

In other words, inflation makes it seem like sales are increasing when in reality profits are plummeting.

Another way to track actual retail performance without price inflation obscuring reality is to examine shipping volume and shipping rates.  In the summer, import volumes to the US began dropping off a cliff, indicating that consumer demand was indeed being affected by inflation/stagflation.  Now, trans-pacific shipping rates have also plunged at least 75%.  Shipping companies are reporting that empty cargo containers are becoming frequent in freight to the US, with companies scrambling to adjust after two years of boats overflowing with goods.

   

One thing that is important to note is that this process has been ongoing and has very little to do with the Federal Reserve’s rate hike program.  It is a separate issue tied directly to price inflation and Fed rate hikes have been ineffective in dealing with this problem.

Another issue that needs to be addressed is that prices are still high.  Faltering consumer demand is not dragging inflation back down to Earth as many economists expect, and this is a direct consequence of a stagflationary environment rather than a purely deflationary one.  Prices on many goods (necessities in particular) stay high or continue to climb while demand falls.  This is caused by high costs in raw materials, manufacturing and wages translating over to high prices in wholesale.  Retailers cannot lower prices much despite falling demand because profit margins are so thin.

The huge decline in volumes and shipping rates signal an important shift in the US economy and are a warning of changes to come.  Most importantly, the drop indicates that the $8 trillion in covid stimulus money that was helicopter dropped on the public in 2020 and 2021 is now gone, or at least, the effects are finally ending.  But what does this mean?

First, it means job demand is going to explode.  The millions of workers that were happy to live off of unemployment, covid welfare and their parents rather than participate in the economy are now going to be searching for work.  And, for now, there are plenty of empty job positions for them to fill.  This means a continuing jump in employment as job availability sees declines.  

However, with profits slumping and demand falling the US will then see actual job losses and mass layoffs.  Stagflation will continue to hold until unemployment hits a level that affects manufacturing and costs in raw materials.  This will likely take some time.

The point is, the economy is not going to behave within the traditionally accepted mechanics.  We are not dealing with a standard inflationary crisis or a standard deflationary crisis.  There are elements of both at play, and the instability is much worse than was witnessed during the stagflationary event of the 1970s.  

The US is now entering a stage of implosion in demand, inevitably followed by rising unemployment.

end

A must read on Tulsi Gabbard

(Tom Luongo)

Who’s Afraid Of Tulsi Gabbard? Everyone…

TUESDAY, OCT 11, 2022 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

This isn’t the biggest news of the week but it may turn out to be so if I’m right about what this means and where it leads. Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard formally left the Democratic Party in a public announcement this morning on Twitter.

Here’s Gabbard’s full statement:

I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…

…hostile to people of faith & spirituality, demonize the police & protect criminals at the expense of law-abiding Americans, believe in open borders, weaponize the national security state to go after political opponents, and above all, dragging us ever closer to nuclear war.

I believe in a government that is of, by, and for the people. Unfortunately, today’s Democratic Party does not. Instead, it stands for a government of, by, and for the powerful elite. I’m calling on my fellow common sense independent-minded Democrats to join me….

…in leaving the Democratic Party. If you can no longer stomach the direction that so-called woke Democratic Party ideologues are taking our country, I invite you to join me.

Click the link to watch my full statement on why I’m leaving the Democratic Party:

Originally tweeted by Tulsi Gabbard  (@TulsiGabbard) on October 11, 2022.

Gabbard’s statement is a big deal given the timing, less than a month out from the mid-term elections.

I know a lot of people are really torn on Gabbard. She elicits from the “patriot or “MAGA” crowd the same kind of unthinking division that Donald Trump elicits from the world.

There are few nuanced takes on either of these people. This is because they represent threats to the people who are desperately trying to maintain control over the political and economic system. It doesn’t matter if they are competent or not.

Since that system is failing, rapidly, the socio-political immune system must be vaccinated against all foreign ideas.

So, the modus operandi is always the same. As they rise in popularity seed and amplify their faults to gaslight some would be supporters. In the case of Gabbard it was her invitation to the 2015 WEF Young Leaders conference and her positions on key domestic policy issues.

People don’t like Gabbard for these reasons. Some of them are valid criticisms. Her voting record is Progressive on domestic economic issues. But, like a lot of young people, they come in with certain ideas and they leave with others after peaking behind the curtain.

This focus on past specifics keeps many projecting personal anxieties onto them rather than assessing their personal journey.

This precludes thinking strategically about how they can be an asset and only knee-jerk rejecting them for failing to pass some purity test.

Might I remind you what that type of behavior is reminiscent of?

It’s Left-Brain dominance bordering on possession. This is threat assessment, a function of the left-brain, taken to its extreme. It’s what drives wokeness as well as the opposite. We live in times designed for maximal anxiety.

There are threats to our being and livelihoods multiplying seemingly by the day. President “Biden” is casually talking about nuclear war, FFS. We’re all stressed out. I get it.

But too much of anything is a bad thing. The mechanisms of paranoia are the same for all parts of the political spectrum. And the anxiety pimps (H/T Dexter White for that) with their hands on the levers of the psy-ops understand this very, very well.

Giving into those anxieties leads to only looking at how something can only be a threat rather than an asset. And if you are triggered by me saying this now, QED.

This is no different than those who can only see the Fed as a threat and, for example, any/all past relationships Jerome Powell had with ‘the bad guys’ becomes prima facie evidence that fuckery is afoot.

It looks like reasoning and analysis, when it’s just pattern recognition from previously being programmed.

This is my primary point when it comes to Gabbard and her announcement this morning. The real psy-op isn’t that she’s some Klaus von Commie Schnitzel Triple Agent leading us like a pied piper to our own doom.

The real psy-op is that many can’t consider her as anything else BUT THAT.

If you doubt me, look on my Twitter feed this morning after I pointed this exact thing out. Tulsi Gabbard triggers people because they can’t believe she walked up to the WEF mountain, was offered “the Precious!” and turned them down.

But that is exactly what it looks like she did.

This woman was the perfect Davos Trojan Horse. She was young, attractive, well-spoken.

She’s also a “woman of color” who joined the army after 9/11 to serve for patriotic reasons and, on top of all of this, a freaking Democrat!

Yahtzee!

When you look at the landscape for 2024 who do the Democrats have who aren’t completely loony tunes?

Their rejection of her in 2020 was the big tell and it had nothing to do with the Clintons.

This was a woman who in 2016 after being ‘groomed’ for greatness resigned from the DNC over Hitlary’s corruption of the primaries at a moment in time everyone, and I mean EV-ER-Y-ONE, thought Hitlary would be the next president.

Even I didn’t believe my own arguments that Trump would win in May 2016.

Gabbard defied the most vindictive woman in US political circles.

A woman with a presumed body count that measures in the dozens who was supposed to seal Davos’ deal to sell the US out to the globalists and their planned Great Reset.

That takes immense stones and speaks to a lot of personal integrity.

Now, you can construct some MI-6/John LeCarre narrative that she was just playing the long game for Klaus, but seriously folks, Occam’s Razor is almost always valid.

When she ran for President in 2020, was she promoted to be the one who would stand with Joe Biden? No. If she was Klaus’ girl she would have been.

She would have gotten more than 1 delegate. She wouldn’t have been given the Ron Paul treatment at the convention.

No, what she actually did was destroy the presidential ambitions of the woman-of-color who had been chosen, Kamala Harris.

And she did it without any DNC support whatsoever. She did it with almost no speaking time. It was the most effective political takedown in history save Ron Paul’s destruction of Rudy Guiliani in 2008.

To believe this narrative that Gabbard is a WEF Trojan Horse means you have to believe in a stage play so stupid and complicated it beggars belief. So, I ask everyone in the audience, if you are triggered by Tulsi Gabbard, reflect on why that is and where those feelings come from.

Because they ain’t coming from her.

She endorsed Biden, very reluctantly. It made sense. She didn’t like Trump personally and she was still nominally a party member. She’s not perfect. I don’t need perfect in this environment.

But, per my previous arguments in January, Gabbard can position herself as a moderate populist, a kind of John Anderson figure from the 1980 election that ensures that no Democrat has a prayer of winning the 2024 election.

If the GOP was smart, as big an ‘if’ if there ever was one, they would begin the process of saying this recession is regrettable but necessary. Embrace it and build on the anger at Brandon for screwing everyone in the wake of COVID.

They can see Gabbard coming in to pull centrist votes from Hillary (or whomever) back towards the GOP or worse, advocating for real fiscal and foreign policy reform in D.C. as she runs as a kind of John Anderson figure against Jimmy Carter.

In fact, the more I think about this the more likely John Anderson is the best analogue for her role in 2024. She’s the sane Democrat who’s interested in practical solutions, pulling in a very important 5-7% of swing voters tired of the outright lying, the destruction of communities and leadership turning a blind eye to violence and the coming rape of those same suburbs by Larry Fink and Blackrock.

That was then. Today my thinking is even more insane.

As the GOP VP candidate she can be a voice of sanity on foreign policy and human rights (vaccines, social credit score, etc.), leaving her running mate to focus on domestic issues and rebuilding America.

So, what does this announcement actually mean for the future?

It means that my off the cuff hope for a Florida Governor Ron DeSantis/Tulsi Gabbard 2024 unity ticket I discussed with Garland Nixon on my podcast back in May is taking shape… and right on schedule.

I know that Robert Barnes believes and/or has real information that the 2024 ticket is Trump/DeSantis. And that may still be the default plan. I’m not privy to anything, just reading the tea leaves.

But Trump has to navigate serious opposition as the Democrats try to take him out of the equation. Generals always fight the last war. Davos is fighting Trump when they should be fighting the generational shift just over the horizon, from Boomers to Gen-X.

The Democrats really think they can win in 2024 by taking Trump out of the picture through lawfare and blaming the country’s ills on us not accepting their lunatic spending packages. Gavin Gruesome is clearly positioning himself for this role.

The fallback plan if Trump is invalidated would be DeSantis at the top of the ticket with someone else to soften the edges and bring the country together.

There is no one else in American politics poised to do just that than Tulsi Gabbard.

If you can’t see the script of Gabbard giving a unifying, edifying speech about healing the divisions and getting back to work at the GOP convention then I’ve taught you not one thing in five years about how screenwriting actually works.

DeSantis is killing it as Florida governor. Davos and the Democrats truly hate him because Ron’s so damn competent and willing to play Alinsky games to win. They’ve never had one of those guys before.

Joe Biden had to publicly praise a Republican Florida governor for his handling of the devastation wrought by Hurricane Ian on the eve of an election.

That’s a big deal, folks. More evidence Joe shouldn’t be allowed to speak off script.

For this to work, however, there has to be a quid pro quo. The GOP will demand it. Gabbard switching sides can’t happen all at once. First she has to walk away from the Democrats and help the GOP win a few seats in the House for the mid-terms. Check.

Then she continues to build her credibility as a moderate who speaks against the things that Presidential candidates can’t speak on or lose the support of the current crop of Davos-controlled Congresscritters — anti-war, the MIC, etc.

She’ll be on Tucker Carlson very soon now and a lot more going forward.

By the time the 2024 party conventions occur, the Fed’s tight monetary policy, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and war with Russia over Ukraine will have the people focused almost wholly on domestic issues.

We’ll be in the worst recession/depression since the 1970’s.

Ukraine will quickly morph into Vietnam as a political albatross.

If you think Americans don’t want a war with Russia today, go out another 20 months or so when they can’t feed their families or afford to drive to work.

This is why the neocons and Davos are desperate to upgrade the conflict in Ukraine NOW. They have to flip the switch with the American electorate that Putin is our problem.

He needs to be the scapegoat for the collapse.

And that only happens with a casus belli that is incontrovertible.

Putin continues to refuse to give that to them.

If they can’t get their Just War and blame it on the GOP then they have only the economy to run on. But “Biden” takes that heat while the GOP simply keeps pointing to being fiscally responsible in the face of Democrat insanity.

By this logic, the best thing that could happen for this country is for the DNC to indict Trump and block his nomination for president. It paves the path to flipping the psychology of the whole center of the country to rejecting everything they are.

Gabbard can make that case as an independent, a former DNC insider who walked the walk, as either VP or as the second coming of John Anderson — the man who ensured that Reagan couldn’t be stopped.

DeSantis does not trigger moderates the way Trump does. If anything he’s the governor most people want, even if they tell their friends they don’t.

Gabbard’s strategic value to this situation should be obvious.

end

Rent inflation rising rapidly in the USA

(Mike Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Rent Inflation Hits Outer-Ring Suburbs The Most, Core-Cities The Least

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 11:27 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The impact of work-from-home arrangements is clearly visible in rental preferences. City crime is likely another “get me out of here” factor…

Image courtesy of Apartment List.

Please consider the Suburban Rent Boom Has Been a Constant Throughout the Pandemic

In the earliest phases of the pandemic, many of the nation’s large cities saw sharp rent declines as a subset of renters with newly remote working arrangements moved away from expensive downtown areas that had temporarily lost their vibrancy, in search of more space in the surrounding suburbs. At the same time, widespread job losses also forced many workers to give up leases they could no longer afford. In the time since, big city rent prices have bounced back as employment has rebounded and return to work plans have begun to materialize. But it’s still the suburbs that have continued to see the fastest rent growth. 

Analyzing our rent estimates across 39 large and medium-sized metropolitan areas, we find that since March 2020, rents in the suburbs of these metros have grown by 27.2 percent, on average, substantially outpacing the 19.8 percent average rent growth in the core cities that they surround.

Urban vs Suburban Rent Growth

ApartmentList covers 39 major metro here is the Chicago metro area.

Urban vs Suburban Rent Growth Chicago

Many workers who lost jobs or who no longer needed to be close to an office decided that it was no longer wise to pay a premium for downtown rentals. As existing renters gave up their leases without new renters to take their places, rents in core cities were discounted. This was especially true in the nation’s priciest cities, such as San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, and New York City, all of which saw their median rents plummet by at least 20 percent by the end of 2020. On average, rents in the core cities that we analyzed fell by 4.6 percent from March through December of 2020. Meanwhile, rents in the suburbs of these metros ticked up slightly, rising by an average of 0.7 percent.

The fastest rent growth since March 2020 has been occurring in the suburbs that sit furthest from the urban core. 

Urban vs Suburban Rent Growth Interactive

The widest gap is Cleveland. New York bucks the trend with an 18% rise in the city and 14.2 percent in the suburbs.

Even as large core cities have rebounded strongly from early-pandemic declines, rent growth has continued to be fastest in the suburbs. Even before the pandemic, increasingly unaffordable housing costs close to the urban core had been pushing more and more renters to the far peripheries of the nation’s large metro areas, resulting in a proliferation of “super commuters”.

The above trend is part of the Explosion of Super Commuters

Explosion of Super Commuters

  • There are 4.6 million workers in the U.S. who commute 90+ minutes each way, comprising 3.1 percent of the American workforce. From 2010 to 2019, the number of super commuters nationally increased by 45 percent, more than tripling the growth rate of the overall workforce.
  • Super commuting is concentrated in the nation’s most expensive markets — the New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco regions collectively contain nearly one-in-three super commuters nationally.

Work from home and hybrid arrangements have enhanced this trend.

Housing Units Under Construction

Of the purported 461,000 homes for sale, only 49,000 are complete. However, there are 306,000 units under construction. That number exceeds every total but the final stages of the housing bubble years.  

For discussion, please see New Home Sales Jump an Astonishing 28 Percent in August

Are those homes in the right places, enough to match the ongoing flight from big cities?

If not, don’t expect much rent relief. And shelter is about 32 percent of the CPI.

*  *  *

Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. 

end

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//INFLATION WATCH

Pepsi’s average product prices spike 17% year over year

(zerohedge)

PepsiCo’s Average Product Prices Spike 17% Year-Over-Year

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 10:25 AM

While the Fed sits around and rearranges numbers, equations and definitions to try and couch what is obviously an ugly inflationary picture for the country, at least one company is giving it to people straight: PepsiCo.

The company reported earnings this morning, posting a 9% rise in its Q3 sales and offering up increased guidance as it keeps raising prices on both snacks and its flagship beverages.

The 12% increase it expects from full year organic revenue, noted by the Wall Street Journal this morning, comes at the hands of average prices rising an astonishing 17% from the year prior. The price hikes have also helped the company raise its profit outlook. It now expects per-share earnings growth of 10% for the year, the report notes.

The rise in prices has helped offset a “slight decline” in overall sales volume, the report says. This means that Pepsi is fighting the recession that the country is in with more inflation. 

It also is a stark reminder of what the real year-over-year cost hikes of everyday goods has been for everyday Americans, despite CPI continuing to hover in the high single digits. In addition to prices rising, consumers are also grappling with shrinkflation, wherein more expensive items come in packaging that contains less actual content than it used to. 

Companies like Pepsi have been passing along the rising cost of raw materials, transportation and labor, the report says, reminding us that food inflation in the U.S. is the highest it has been in 40 years.

Grocery prices were up 13.5% in August and this week we will get the latest CPI data. If Pepsi is a leading indicator, there doesn’t seem to be much to be optimistic about…

end

SWAMP STORIES

KING REPORT

The King Report for October 8, 2022 Issue 6863Independent View of the News
  Bank of England intervenes in bond markets again, warns of ‘material risk’ to UK financial stability – “Dysfunction in this market, and the prospect of self-reinforcing ‘fire sale’ dynamics pose a material risk to UK financial stability,” the Bank of England warned.
     The move marks the second expansion of the central bank’s extraordinary rescue package in as many days, after it increased the limit for its daily gilt purchases on Monday… 
    The central bank said it will widen its purchases of U.K. government bonds — known as gilts — to include index-linked gilts from Oct. 11 until Oct. 14. Index-linked gilts are bonds where payouts to bondholders are benchmarked in line with the U.K. retail price index…
     U.K. 10-year index-linked gilt yields rose by 64 basis points on Monday, representing a massive 5.5% fall in price. Meanwhile 30-year index-linked gilt prices were down 16% on the day, with yields now at around 1.5%, having been at -1.5% just six months ago… https://t.co/eE0tpE7ygD
 
@aRishisays: No respite from rates vol. With the BoE backstop about to expire on Friday, UK Inflation-Linked Bond Slump Sends Real Yield on Record Surge. Another classic move. 5y5y Reals (OIS vs RPI swaps) herehttps://t.co/Q5AqEPiCHd
 
BoE drawn into risky game of financial whac-a-mole
The Bank of England is fighting more and more fires. On Tuesday, the UK central bank said it would buy more bonds to avert a fire sale by pension funds. But its plan to end such support on Friday is hampered by a distressed bond market, and wayward government…
     Without a credible fiscal strategy, investors may continue to steer clear of UK gilts. The Bank of England could come under more pressure to help, by extending its purchases beyond next week, or else not trimming its balance sheet as planned. The alternative may be more market flashpoints, or a worse than necessary recession. Yet the more help Bailey provides, the more he will be accused of propping up a broken administration… https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/boe-drawn-into-risky-game-financial-whac-a-mole-2022-10-11/
 
NYT: Biden to ‘Re-Evaluate’ Relationship with Saudi Arabia after Oil Production Cut
Angered by the kingdom’s decision to team up with Russia to slash petroleum output, the president signaled openness to retaliatory measures proposed in Congress, including a halt to arms sales and a new antitrust measure… leading Democrats have proposed curbing American security cooperation with Saudi Arabia, including arms sales, and stripping OPEC members of their legal immunity so they can be sued for violations of American antitrust laws… Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate, said on Tuesday morning that Saudi Arabia clearly wanted Russia to win the war in Ukraine… https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/us/politics/biden-saudi-arabia-oil-production-cut.html
 
US Senator Durbin (on CNN): The US Has Reached the End of the Rope in Saudi Relationship
 
BBG’s @SalehaMohsin: Saudi Arabia dismissed urgent appeals from US officials who said that an OPEC+ production cut would be perceived as a clear choice to side w/Russia, per @WSJ.  Saudi saw the appeal as a political gambit by Biden to avoid bad news ahead of midterms.
 
@zerohedge: Latest weekly SPR Drain was 7.7mm barrels – third largest ever – as Biden scrambles to push oil prices as low as possible ahead of midterms, oblivious of the coming snapback
 
Jamie Dimon blasts Biden on energy: ‘America should have been pumping more oil and gas’ https://t.co/yvPu9aIC3n
 
Are Biden’s fascists tools separating from Joe because they believe the GOP will soon take power?
 
France orders some fuel staff back to work to tackle refineries strike http://reut.rs/3CPkxkE
 
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy pushes ‘peace formula’ in G7 meeting, but says ‘no dialogue’ with Putin
https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-zelenskyy-pushes-peace-formula-g7-meeting-says-no-dialogue-putin
 
Credit Suisse faces U.S. tax probe, senate inquiry http://reut.rs/3VmNATC
 
Q3 earnings season begins today with PEP (1.84 exp).  Analyst warnings are already appearing.
 
U.S. banks seen building $5 billion in reserves as recession risks grow
Third-quarter profits for the banks are expected to fall between 13% and 46%, according to Refinitiv IBES estimates, which shows Citigroup is expected to build the biggest reserves in the quarter, totaling $1.51 billion… Analysts expect profit at JPMorgan to drop 24%, while net income at Citigroup and Wells Fargo is forecast to decline 32% and 17%, respectively, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data… https://news.yahoo.com/u-banks-seen-building-5-140938068.html
 
ESZs traded higher during Asian trading but commenced a decline at 21:37 ET that persisted into the European open.  ESZs hit a bottom of 3584.75 at 3:13 ET.  After a trader-induced bounce to 3613.00 at 3:27 ET, ESZs and European stocks slid back to new daily lows at 6:04 ET. 
 
The usual rally for the NYSE was aided and abetted by the BoE’s latest intervention.  ESZs jumped to 3627.50 at 8:31 ET.  Alas, sellers reappeared; ESZs tumbled to a new daily low of 3580.25 at 10:02 ET.  Big bank and big tech stocks led the decline on Q3 result angst (per above bank earnings story).
 
Traders are conditioned to buy stocks for earnings reporting season because earnings reports are almost always ‘good’.  This is a reason for the equity rally on Tuesday.  PS – Banks and tech stock earnings appear early in the reporting cycle.  These stocks therefore usually lead the earnings season rally.  However, big banks and Fangs got hammered on Tuesday.  Someone knows or fears their Q3 results.
 
Traders then aggressively bought ESZs and DJIA stocks.  ESZs soared to a new daily high of 3638.00 at 11:51 ET.  The rally stalled when Cleveland Fed President Mester said the Fed has NOT made any progress on lowering inflation and monetary policy needs to be more restrictive.  Mester added that the biggest policy risk is that the Fed doesn’t hike rates enough.
 
An Update on the Economy and Monetary Policy: Perseverance in Returning to Price Stability – Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer-Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/speeches/sp-20221011-an-update-on-the-economy-and-monetary-policy
 
But traders and trading models are programmed to get long for earnings season, despite news, events, and developments.  So, traders resumed buying stuff; ESZs, stocks, and bonds hit new daily highs.
 
DJIA stocks led the rally.  At 12:50 ET: AMGN +6.18%, WAG +3.82%, WMT + 2.69%, BA + 2.46%, CAT 2.33%, TRV +2.02%, HON +1.95%, JNJ + 1.79%, MMM +1.79%. NKE +1.66%
 
The NY Fang+ Index hit a low of -3.5% at 10:04 ET.  The rebound ended at 12:46; Fangs then tumbled.
 
ESZs and stocks rolled over after their late midday peaks.  At 14:32 ET, ESZs and USZs sank when BoE chief Bailey, speaking in DC, said “We will be out” of the market by Friday.  “My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now.  You’ve got to get this done…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-11/boe-s-bailey-message-to-funds-is-you-ve-got-three-days-left
 
The Bailey bombardment ended at 15:15 ET.  Traders that were trapped long desperately needed to perform the late upward manipulation.  ESZs and stocks zigzagged higher until 15:56 ET.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
More BoE intervention and conditioned buying for Q3 earnings season generated an equity rally
Bonds rallied sharply on BoE intervention
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Banks and Fangs got hammered – usually they rally sharply for earnings season
ESZs and USZs tumbled when BoE chief Bailey indicated the BoE would soon pivot on intervention
Nasdaq closed at its lowest level since July 2020
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
When will capitulation occur?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3599.32
Previous session High/Low3640.66; 3568.45
 
WSJ’s @NickTimiraos: Congressional Democrats, who downplayed inflation worries when approving large fiscal packages last year, are mostly steering clear—for now—of criticizing Fed chief Jay Powell for raising rates rapidly. “He’s doing the best he can.” from @KateDavidson  https://t.co/A1WQqakYey
 
@sethharpesq: There is no Nobel Prize in economics. Its actual name is the Sveriges Riksbank Prize, and its presentation as a Nobel is controversial. In 2005, Peter Nobel called it “a PR coup by economists to improve their reputation.”
 
Rob Roos MEP (Netherlands) @Rob_Roos: In COVID hearing, Pfizer director admits: vaccine was never tested on preventing transmission. “Get vaccinated for others” was always a lie. The only purpose of the COVID passport: forcing people to get vaccinated. The world needs to know.
https://twitter.com/Rob_Roos/status/1579759795225198593
 
@SteveDeaceShow: Fully verified EU parliament member asks Pfizer rep plainly if the jab was tested on inoculation. She giggles nervously and says no because they “had to move at the speed of science.”
 
@WSJ: In the most comprehensive review of stock trades by senior executive branch officials, a WSJ investigation found that more than one in five of these officials invested in companies overseen by their U.S. agency or department    https://t.co/4voiXFaUbs
 
Nobody Has Traded 10Y Japanese Govt Bonds For 3 Days!
This is the longest such occurrence since 1999 when it became the benchmark.  Trading volumes in JGBs have dried up over the years as the BOJ scooped up sizable chunks of the debt to keep a cap on yields, now holding just shy of 50% of all JGBs…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nobody-has-traded-10y-japanese-govt-bonds-3-days
 
Today – Traders understand that there will be a few more days of BoE intervention before market forces might reemerge.  US September PPI will impact trading before the NYSE open.  Traders and trading models will buy stocks for the start of Q3 earnings season because they are programmed to do so.
 
ESZs are +1.00 and USZs are -11/32 at 20:15 ET.
 
Expected economic data: Sept PPI 0.2% m/m & 8.4% y/y, Core PPI 0.3% m/m & 7.3% y/y; Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 10:00 ET, Fed Gov Barr 13:45 ET, FOMC Minutes from 9/21 14:00 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3965; 100-day MA: 3945; 150-day MA: 4069; 200-day MA: 4179
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,556; 100-day MA: 31,590; 150-day MA: 32,237 200-day MA: 33,000
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4610.41 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4019.66 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3761.17 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3638.58 triggers a sell signal
 
FBI intel analyst tells Durham agency offered Steele $1M to corroborate dossier
The revelation appears to show the FBI, according to the testimony from intelligence analyst Brian Auten, had insufficient solid evidence for the FISA warrant for Trump campaign adviser Carter Page in its investigation and used uncorroborated information to move forward with the probe…
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/jurors-sworn-denchenko-trial-open-argument-set-begin
 
FBI officials testified to Congress that the FBI only paid Steele’s expenses.  Lying to Congress is a crime.
 
Clinton campaign manager who spread Trump-Alfa Bank story involved in DHS election censorship – Robby Mook’s Harvard project was “civil society collaborator” in consortium that targeted news organizations, members of Congress for purported election misinformation.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/clinton-campaign-manager-who-spread-trump-alfa-bank-hoax-involved-dhs
 
Elvis Chan: Cyber Conduit Between FBI and Big Tech
This FBI agent based in the Silicon Valley and working with social media companies to censor what you see on their platforms has a long history of blocking and tackling for his Democratic bosses.
    Democrats are once again colluding with Big Tech to censor “disinformation” about the 2022 midterms… “People are trying to dispel the disinformation and misinformation that is going on… federal law enforcement agencies are sharing data with those social media platforms with the aim of combating election misinformation with the truth.”…
    For years, Chan has promoted the unproven narrative that the Russians attempted to influence the 2016 election to help Donald Trump win… Chan’s name appears in evidence collected by Special Counsel John Durham in the criminal case against Michael Sussmann, a lawyer for Perkins Coie, the firm representing both the Hillary Clinton campaign and Democratic National Committee in 2016…
https://amgreatness.com/2022/10/10/elvis-chan-cyber-conduit-between-fbi-and-big-tech/
 
Gabbard announces she’s leaving Democrat Party, which she says now controlled by ‘elitist cabal’
Former Democrat presidential candidate and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard announced Tuesday that she’s leaving the political party… “I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism,” Gabbard wrote…
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/gabbard-announces-shes-leaving-democrat-party
 
Gabbard: “What we’re seeing play out now is essentially a proxy war… The U.S. is providing billions of dollars in funding and weapons systems… the ultimate objective being regime change in Russia.”
 
Colorado secretary of state says office accidentally sent 30,000 voter registration notices to noncitizens – Democratic Secretary of State Jena Griswold’s office said it was unaware that any noncitizens who received the postcards in error had tried to register
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/colorado-secretary-state-says-accidentally-sent-30000-voter-registration-notices-noncitizens
 
@FirebrandPAC: Tucker on Biden targeting political opponents with the FBI and J6 political prisoners: “As of this week, dozens of January 6th defendants are still being held in pretrial detention. Where’s the Republican party on that? Nowhere.”  https://twitter.com/FirebrandPAC/status/1579629760669683712

 .

Greg Hunter interviewing my favourite economist, John Williams

usawatchdog.com/inflation-75-year-high-unemployment-24-john-williams/

Inflation 75 Year High, Unemployment 24% – John Williams

By Greg Hunter On October 11, 2022 In Market Analysis1 Comment

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Economist and founder of ShadowStats.com, John Williams says the government’s “phony numbers” don’t show the public know how bad things really are with the economy.  Williams prides himself and giving you the actual economic numbers without “accounting gimmicks” that make things look better than they actually are.  For example, the latest official government number on inflation shows 8.3%.  It’s officially a 40-year high.  It gets worse when you stripe away all the “accounting gimmicks,” and you see the real number that is burdening real people in the real world.  John Williams explains, “My inflation number shows a 17.3% peak in June, and right now it is 16.5%.  That is at a 75-year high.   I think you will find people are having a more difficult time than they were having 40 years ago.”

On the unemployment front, the government is touting a 3.5% unemployment rate.  What are the real numbers when you count all unemployed people no matter how long they have been looking for work?  Williams says, “The unemployment numbers are frightening. . . . I think we are seeing what I consider a phony number of 3.5%.  After a year, the discouraged worker disappears as an issue. . . . The unemployment number is really 24.4% the way it used to be counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).”

Williams is not expecting things to get better anytime soon.  Williams contends, “I think the economy is going to get a lot worse.  If you listen to what (Fed Head) Jay Powell said at his last press conference, he said he’s looking to create a recession.  That’s effectively what he was saying, and they are doing it. . . . I think you have higher inflation ahead.   I would try to get my cash into assets that adjust for inflation such as gold and silver.  You also need to get something that has a long shelf life. . . . The problem here is going to be in the next year.  You are going to see the economy getting worse and inflation getting worse.  I don’t see the Fed cutting back on the money supply, and they are already telling you they are going to keep raising the interest rate.  Good buys are things that will spike with inflation. . . . Stock up on can food. . . .I think you are going to see a few more percentage points s on the government numbers coming up.  That can, and I think will happen as things deteriorate here.

There is much more in the 42-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, as he explains how bad the economy really is.  (10.11.22)

(usawatchdog.com/inflation-75-year-high-unemployment-24-john-williams/)

After the Interview:

There is much free information on the homepage of ShadowStats.com.

For detailed hard hitting original analysis, you can become a subscriber by clicking her

WILL SEE YOU TOMORROW

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