OCT 13//MANIPULATION CONTINUES UNABATED//CPI CONTINUES TO BE RED HOT FORCES MARKETS INITIALLY SOUTHBOUND BUT TRUMPED NEW MODEL SUGGESTED TERMINAL RATE IN EUROPE AT 2.5%//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $.40 TO $1670.30//SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TO $18.97//PLATINUM UP $3.20 TO $907.50//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $35.70 TO $2156.25//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES: A VERY IMPORTANT COMMENTARY FROM PEPE ESCOBAR//CPI UP TO 8.2% YEAR/YEAR//COVID UPDATES: VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//EUROPE’S ENERGY CRISIS UPDATES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: DOWN  $0.40 to $1670.30

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  DOWN $0.02 to $18,97

Access prices: closes

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1666.90

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 18.99

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $18,758 DOWN 400

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,365 UP 207.

Platinum price closing UP 3.20 AT  $907.50

Palladium price; closing DOWN $35.70  at $2120.55

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD $2291 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ DOWN $22.89 CDN DOLLARS

BRITISH GOLD IN POUNDS: 1470.09 POUNDS PER OZ DOWN 38.18 BRITISH POUNDS PER OZ/

EURO GOLD: 1703.77 EUROS PER OZ// DOWN 21.50 EUROS PER OZ///

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,670.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/12/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 10/14/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 1
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 2
323 C HSBC 85
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 82
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 7
661 C JP MORGAN 18
800 C MAREX SPEC 1 5
905 C ADM 21


TOTAL: 111 111
MONTH TO DATE: 21,689

JPMORGAN STOPPED  18/111 

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT CONTRACT:    111 NOTICES FOR 11,100 OZ  or 0.3451 TONNES

total notices so far: 21,689 contracts for 2,168,900 oz (67.4618 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  418 :  for 2,090,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $.40

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 482.709 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2437  CONTRACTS TO 128,060  AND CLOSER TO  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE TINY LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR   $0.18 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.18).SPECS CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR SHORTFALLS. OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) ZERO  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWING A 135,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ 

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: — 26

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 51,147 contracts:  25.574 million oz  OR 2.324MILLION OZ PER DAY. (465 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 25.574  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  25.574 MILLION OZ INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2437 DESPITE OUR  $0.18 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 672 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /STRONG BANKER ADDITIONS //  STRONG SHORT ADDITIONS//CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS//  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT. OF 1.580 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 135,000 QUEUE JUMP  .. WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 3135 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 15.675 MILLION  OZ..

 WE HAD 1  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  5,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A GOOD SIZED 4378 CONTRACTS  TO 435,773 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED —  -103 CONTRACTS.

.

THE GOOD SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $4.00//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY //  MINIMAL SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF  100 OZ//NEW STANDING 69.042 TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $4.00 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6800 OI CONTRACTS 21.11 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2422 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 435.876

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6800 CONTRACTS  WITH 4481 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2422 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6800 CONTRACTS OR 21.11 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2422) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (4378): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 6800 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) ZERO SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS///NEWBIE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 100 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON///NEW STANDING 69.042 TONNES//.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT. :

24,748 CONTRACTS OR 2,474,800 OZ OR 76.87 TONNES 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2249 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 76.87 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  76.87/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.95% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  76.87  TONNES INITIAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE  BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2437 CONTRACT OI TO  128,060 AND CLOSER TO   OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 672 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 672  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  672 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 2463  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 425  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN  OF 3109  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15.545 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.18

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.15 PTS OR 0.30%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 311.92 OR 1.87%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 159.41PTS OR 0.60%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.12%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.1818 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1894//    /Oil DOWN TO 87.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.71    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A GOOD SIZED 4378 CONTRACTS TO 435,773 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS FAIR  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED  WITH OUR  RISE IN PRICE OF $4.00  IN GOLD PRICING  WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2422 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2422 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :2422 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2422 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED  TOTAL OF 6800  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2422 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 4378  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $4.00//WE HAD SPEC SHORTS ADDING TO THEIR POSITIONS  WITH BANKERS TAKING THE OTHER SIDE AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS.  WE ALSO HAD SOME ADDITIONAL SPECS GOING LONG DUE TO THE ATTRACTIVE PRICE

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING OCT   (69.042),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  69.042 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $4.00) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS (THEY ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS) AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF6800 CONTRACTS //     WE HAVE  REGISTERED A STRONG GAIN  OF 21.11 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (69.042 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH A  RISE IN PRICE OF $4.00 

WE HAD -103  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6800 CONTRACTS OR 680,000  OZ OR  21.11 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 236,985//  fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday  143,607/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT ’22 COMEX GOLD //OCT 13

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 12,249.576oz


JPMorgan
Brinks
includes
 15 kilobars
and 366 kilobars

 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in ozNIL  oz
No of oz served (contracts) today111   notice(s)
11100  OZ
0.3452 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)620 contracts 
54,100oz
1.5800
 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month21,689 notices
2,168,900
67.418 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits NIL oz

 customer withdrawals:2

i) Out of JPMorgan:  11,767.266 oz (266 kilobars)

ii) out of Brinks:  482.26 0z  (15 kilobars)

total:  12,249.576     oz   

total in tonnes: 0.3809 tonnes

Adjustments: 0//  

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT we have an  oi of 619 contracts having LOST 32 contracts . We had  31 contracts

filed on WEDNESDAY, so we LOST ONE TINY contract or an additional 100 oz will NOT stand in this active delivery month of Oct as

this one contract was EFP’d over to London.

November GAINED 0 contracts to stand at 3131

December gained 1550 contracts down to 365,228

We had1111 notice(s) filed today for 11100 oz FOR THE OCT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 111 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 18 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,689) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (OCT 619 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 111 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,219,700 OZ  OR 69.042 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of OCT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (21,689) x 100 oz+   (619)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (111} x 100 oz} which equals 2,219,700, oz standing OR 69.045  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of OCTOBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  69.042 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR OCT (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,968,238.247 OZ   61.220 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  25,814,729.096 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,315,332.840  OZ (383.06tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,499,396.256 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,347,094 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 321.83 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 13//INITIAL OCT SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,268,265.540 oz
Brinks
Loomis

Manfra





 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory250,192.973 oz
Delaware










 
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)  
 5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)93 contracts 
(465,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)418 contracts
 2,090,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  1 deposits into the customer account

i) into Delaware:  250,192.973 oz

Total deposits:  250,192.973 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 160.801million oz/309.404million =52.03% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 3  

i)Brinks 377,443.030 oz

ii) Out of Loomis: 585,332.610 oz

 iii_ Out of Manfra: 305,489.900 oz

total withdrawals:  1m268,265.540  oz

 adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 40.082 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 309.404 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT OI: 94 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 7 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 20 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE  GAINED 27

SILVER CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 135,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR OCT.

NOVEMBER LOST 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 397

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 957 CONTRACTS UP TO 104,342

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 for  5,000 oz

Comex volumes:70,941// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 62,330 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  418 x 5,000 oz = 2,090,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(94) and the number of notices served upon today 1  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT./2022 contract month: 418 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (94)  – number of notices served upon today (1) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates 2,555,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:56,736// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 64,896 contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

SEPT 30  WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 944.31 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ//

Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER  UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 478.196 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

end

Lawrie Williams

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Chris Powell’s remarks at the New Orleans conference:  a Gold market manipulation update

(Chris Powell)

a must read…

Chris Powell: Gold market manipulation update

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-10-12 19:52Section: Daily Dispatches

Illustrations for this presentation can be found here: NOIC-Slides-10-12-2022.pdf 

* * *

ILLUSTRATION 1

Remarks by Chris Powell
Secretary/Treasurer, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Wednesday, October 12, 2022

What a year has passed since we last gathered here.

The money supply in the United States and throughout the world exploded and inflation soared here and abroad.

The gold price in U.S. dollars went down.

Central banks steadily announced their purchases of gold and turned from net sellers to net buyers.

The gold price in U.S. dollars went down.

War in Ukraine pitted the United States and its NATO allies against Russia and upended the energy and food markets.

The price of gold in U.S. dollars went down again.

Russia began threatening to use nuclear weapons in that war.

The price of gold in U.S. dollars continued to fall. 

A month ago the world began sinking into economic recession and still the gold price in U.S. dollars went down — until about a week ago, when it began to stabilize.

Many experts have explanations for the counterintuitiveness of the U.S. dollar gold price. We will hear from some of them at this conference. But for more than a decade the dollar gold price has been no stranger to counterintuitiveness. Fortunately during that time the experts have construed nearly everything as a reason for gold to go down. 
 
Well, nearly everything. That is, very few experts have said gold priced in U.S. dollars has gone down because of largely surreptitious government intervention.

Exposing that intervention and complaining about how it has destroyed not just the gold market but ALL markets EVERYWHERE has been the work of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee since 1998. We have amassed a huge amount of documentation, displayed at our internet site, GATA.org.

For example, and most contemporary, consider something else that has gone down steadily this year: the gold swaps and loans reported in the monthly statements of account of the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of the central banks, the broker that gives central banks cover for gold and other transactions they don’t want disclosed.

To potential central bank members, the BIS actually advertises its camouflaging services. Here is a page from a PowerPoint presentation by BIS officials to central bankers at a conference at BIS headquarters in Basel, Switzerland, in 2008.

ILLUSTRATION 2 

You can see that interventions in the gold and currency markets are considered major services of the BIS to its members.

In a speech at a BIS conference in 2005, William R. White, then the head of the Monetary and Economic Department of the BIS, said that one of the main purposes of international central bank cooperation was “the provision of international credits and joint efforts to influence asset prices (especially gold and foreign exchange) in circumstances where this might be thought useful.”

That is, rigging the gold and currency markets long has been a primary purpose of the BIS on behalf of its members, who included all the major central banks.

White’s speech is still posted at the BIS internet site, and at GATA’s:

http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap27.pdf

http://www.gata.org/files/BIS-WhiteSpeechCentralBankCooperation-June2005.pdf

So the BIS’ meddling with the gold price on behalf of its central bank members is a matter of record. Unfortunately it seems that nobody outside GATA dares to look at the record.

GATA’s consultant on the BIS, Robert Lambourne, examines the BIS’ monthly statements of account very closely. Those statements are formulated carefully to obscure fluctuations in the bank’s gold interventions, represented by gold swaps and leases. But Lambourne does the necessary calculations and has discovered a sharp decline in BIS gold swaps and leases this year. This is the trend of BIS gold interventions since January.

ILLUSTRATION 3   

The annual report of the BIS, published in June for the year ending in March, confirmed the accuracy of Lambourne’s calculations of bank’s gold swaps. Lambourne had estimated 360 tonnes for March. The BIS reported 358.

https://gata.org/node/22022

ILLUSTRATION 4

This decline in the gold swaps at the BIS seems to correspond with the implementation in Europe and the United Kingdom of the “Basel III” rules requiring bullion banks to hold full collateral for their gold trading, rules that the London Bullion Market Association and World Gold Council warned would wreck the gold market — or at least wreck the part of the gold market most supported by the LBMA and the gold council — that is, the dominance of gold derivatives, “paper gold,” over physical gold.

“Paper gold” has been the main mechanism of gold price suppression in recent years — the creation of vast amounts of imaginary gold, unbacked gold claims and credits at bullion banks, substituting for the possession by investors of real metal. These claims and credits are backstopped as necessary by central bank lending and swapping of official gold reserves.

That is why central banks long have refused to disclose their gold lending.

ILLUSTRATION 5

As was acknowledged by the secret March 1999 report of the staff of the International Monetary Fund, candor in official gold reserve reporting would explode the “paper gold” system.

The decline in the BIS swaps and leases implies that the bank this year has been winding down the paper gold business of its member central banks.

It’s a fair suspicion but try asking the BIS what it does in the gold market, for whom, and why. If you get an answer, please let me know, for you’ll be the first one outside of central banking to get an answer.

Since we last met here other crucial questions about U.S. government intervention in the gold market have continued to be refused answers.

ILLUSTRATION 6

In 2021 U.S. Representative Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia, wrote to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to ask a few questions about the disposition of the U.S. gold reserve. A deputy of Yellen’s replied, refusing to answer most of the questions, including why Treasury gold is stored at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.    

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission continued to refuse to answer a question posed by both Mooney and GATA. That is, does the CFTC have jurisdiction over manipulative trading in the futures markets that is undertaken by or at the behest of the U.S. government? 

This is a simple question about the commission’s jurisdiction. That the commission refuses to answer might give even Kitco News a hint about what really has been going on in the gold market – if Kitco News ever was open to hints.

But in 2001 at a hearing in U.S. District Court in Boston on GATA consultant Reginald Howe’s lawsuit against the U.S. Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, and several bullion banks, an assistant U.S. attorney declared that the U.S. government is fully authorized by the laws establishing the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to rig the gold market exactly as Howe’s lawsuit complained:

https://www.gata.org/node/4211

What else has happened in the last year to indicate both open and surreptitious involvement in the gold market by central banks?

ILLUSTRATION 7

— In March, as Russia began to be assaulted by Western financial sanctions in response to its invasion of Ukraine, the Bank of Russia briefly put a floor under the Russian domestic gold price, signifying that the bank considered the metal to be money and a strategic resource:

https://gata.org/node/21840

ILLUSTRATION 8

— In July the Russian government announced plans to create a gold exchange in Moscow using what it called a “‘Moscow World Standard” for gold to compete with the London Bullion Market Association. Indeed, according to Russian news reports, the goal of the Moscow World Standard exchange is to “‘break the monopoly” of the LBMA and facilitate the development of the gold industry outside the LBMA’s reach. Russia knows that gold is a world reserve currency, a competitor to the U.S. dollar. That is, gold is international money.

https://www.gata.org/node/22137
 
ILLUSTRATION 9

— In January Pam and Russ Martens of WallStreetOnParade.com, quoting a new book about the Federal Reserve, “The Lords of Easy Money: How the Federal Reserve Broke the American Economy” by Christopher Leonard, reported that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s trading room in New York City isn’t the bank’s only trading room. That is, the New York Fed also has a trading room in Chicago near the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange operates most commodity futures trading in the United States. 

Of course no respectable financial journalist or market analyst ever asks the New York Fed what it is trading in either trading room, or why:

https://gata.org/node/21690
 
In June Wall Street on Parade reported that JPMorgan and Citibank hold 90% of all gold and other monetary metals derivatives held by U.S. banks. As far as I can tell, no respectable financial journalist or market analyst has wondered aloud why such a concentrated position in a sensitive financial market would be allowed if it was not actually a U.S. government position, with the two banks functioning as the government’s brokers. 

https://gata.org/node/22028

But then as far as I can tell no respectable financial journalist or market analyst has ever explored the implications of the Central Bank Incentive Program offered by CME Group, the futures exchange operator. With the Central Bank Incentive Program, governments and central banks can receive volume trading discounts for secretly trading all major futures contracts in the United States – not just financial futures — provided that those governments and central banks use brokers approved by CME Group. 

ILLUSTRATION 10

In July, after covering the trial of the JPMorgan gold and silver traders who were charged with spoofing the monetary metals markets and manipulating prices, Bloomberg News reported that documents submitted as evidence showed that while the bank’s traders were spoofing the monetary metals markets, the bank was vaulting and probably trading gold for at least 10 central banks. That is, JPMorgan, which in 2020 was fined $920 million for manipulating the gold and silver markets, was simultaneously working for at least 10 central banks. Were the JPMorgan traders ever front-running central bank transactions? We don’t know, but central banks wouldn’t be vaulting gold with JPMorgan if they weren’t also surreptitiously intervening in the gold market with JPMorgan providing cover as their broker:  

https://gata.org/node/22108

In the last year banks that have been fined millions of dollars or paid millions in civil lawsuit settlements for gold and silver market rigging include not just JPMorgan but Barclays, Scotiabank, and Societe Generale, as well as the London Gold Market Fixing Ltd.

I would need another hour to detail these market-rigging cases. But strangely they never come up in expert analysis of the gold and silver markets and the often counterintuitive direction of prices.

My points are simple. 

First — All the recent evidence fits perfectly with all the older documentation of U.S. government policy and Western government assistance in suppressing the price of gold, the former world reserve currency, to sustain the current world reserve currency, the U.S. dollar.

Second — Gold price suppression is no “‘conspiracy theory” but longstanding government POLICY. That is, gold price suppression is “‘conspiracy FACT.” Indeed, whenever government operates in secret to develop and implement a course of action, as it often does, government is conspiracy itself.

Third — There can be no meaningful analysis of the monetary metals and their markets without accounting for government intervention. 

And fourth — The biggest advantages enjoyed by government’s monetary metals price suppression policy are the indifference and cowardice of financial news organizations and the monetary metals mining industry itself. 

Government intervention against the monetary metals may diminish as the supply of real metal becomes tighter, or the intervention may change direction. That is, governments may decide to push monetary metals prices upward to devalue their currencies and debts and to reliquefy themselves, as they have done occasionally throughout history. 

Such speculation has been offered by the U.S. economists Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance —

https://www.gata.org/node/11373

— and by the Scottish economist Peter Millar:

https://www.gata.org/node/4843

In any case, gold is the secret knowledge of the financial universe, a powerful mechanism for controlling the currency markets, a powerful weapon of imperialism, and an equally powerful defense against imperialism.

ILLUSTRATION 11

The U.S. government knows this very well. If you doubt it, read the transcript of the conversation between Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and Assistant Undersecretary of State Thomas O. Enders at the State Department on April 25, 1974. The transcript is posted at the internet site of the State Department historian —

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v31/d63

— and at GATA’s own internet site:

http://www.gata.org/files/StateDeptKissingerEnders1974.txt

Kissinger and Enders discuss what they consider the U.S. policy imperative of preventing the western European countries from bringing gold back into the international financial system. Enders explains that the Europeans collectively have more gold reserves than the United States and that gold is “‘the reserve-creating instrument,” the instrument of creating money through gold revaluation. Enders says that whoever controls the most gold can revalue it from time to time to create money and thereby change all financial valuations in the world. 

Kissinger agrees that the Europeans must be prevented from remonetizing gold, adding that if the Europeans don’t back down, “We’ll bust them.” 

Yes, the meeting in Kissinger’s office was conspiracy – conspiracy fact. The conspiracy continues.

But gold market rigging can keep working only as long as it remains largely a secret for fooling other governments and investors into accepting gold derivatives, “paper gold.” I hope this conference can help bust the secret open. 

ILLUSTRATION 12

For more history and documentation of gold price suppression policy and information about GATA, please visit our internet site, GATA.org. I’ll be glad to try to answer questions e-mailed to me at CPowell@GATA.org.

Thanks for your kind attentioN

Chris Powell/GATA Secretary

end

Stuart Englert interviewed about gold and silver price suppression

(GATA/Englert/Johnson)

‘Rigged’ author Stuart Englert interviewed about gold and silver price suppression

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-10-12 14:09Section: Daily Dispatches

1:08p CT Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Stuart Englert, author of “Rigged: Exposing the Largest Financial Fraud in History,” was interviewed this week by Elijah Johnson for Finance and Liberty, discussing central banking’s use of derivatives to suppress gold and silver prices. Englert also addresses the possible end of price suppression.

The interview is 25 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

See below for information on purchasing Englert’s book in a way that will support GATA.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Kranzler shows that market indicators suggest a rally for monetary metals

(Dave Kranzler)

Dave Kranzler: The market indicators that suggest a rally for monetary metals

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-10-12 11:46Section: Daily Dispatches

10:46a CT Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Writing at Kinesis Money, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics in Denver cites technical data suggesting that the monetary metals are oversold and getting scarce and close to a rally in price. Of course the government-underwritten creation of vast supplies of “paper” gold and silver has kept the metals oversold for many years, and any technical analysis of manipulated markets must be viewed with some skepticism. But Kranzler writes that the gold-silver price ratio has served as a reliable indicator before.

His analysis is headlined “Market Indicators That Suggest A Precious Metals Rally May Be Imminent” and it’s posted at Kinesis Money here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD

5.OTHER COMMODITIES:

end 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1818 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1894

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.15 PTS OR 0.30%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 311.92 OR 1.87% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 159.41 PTS OR 0.60%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UPN TO  112.63/Euro RISES TO 0.97470

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.243/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 146.73/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.238%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.60%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.40%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.813//

3j Gold at $1677.70//silver at: 19.20  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND94/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 63.47//

3m oil into the 87 dollar handle for WTI and  92 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 146.73DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9972– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9717well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.866 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.856 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,59…GETTTING DANGEROUS

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Rip Higher Amid Reports Of Truss Mini Budget “U-Turn” As CPI Looms

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 08:04 AM

US equity futures traded heavy for much of the overnight session ahead of the much-anticipated (and gloomy, having hammered stocks on 7 of 9 CPI days so far in 2022) inflation data at 830am ET (full preview here), even as gilt yields suspiciously slumped overnight as if someone was aware of some non-public news, before futures ripped sharply higher around 730am ET when first SkyNews…

… and then Bloomberg reported that UK’s officials were likely to blink first in their showdown with the Bank of England (which recall is set to end its temporary bond buying tomorrow) and were discussing how they can back down from Prime Minister Liz Truss’s plans for a massive unfunded package of tax cuts. And while the officials are drafting options for Truss but no final decision has been taken and they are waiting for Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng to return to London from Washington, where he has been attending meetings of the International Monetary Fund, the person said, asking not to be identified commenting on private discussions.  Meanwhile, UK long-end bonds surge in yield as the end of the BOE’s bond purchases intervention approaches.

And despite conflicting reports from other reporters such as the Guardian’s political editor Pippa Crerar reporting that “No 10 rules out further changes to the mini-budget despite pressure from Tory MPs saying “the position has not changed””…

… the confusion was enough to spark some serious short covering across the risk complex which pushed futures more than 1% higher…

… because, as we noted earlier today, hedge fund positioning ahead of the CPI report is the lowest in 5 years!

The S&P index tumbled to its lowest since November 2020 yesterday, as concerns mounted about the impact of hawkish Fed policy, especially on rate-sensitive sectors such as semiconductors. Europe’s Stoxx 600 gauge steadied, while on currency markets, the dollar slumped as cable surged on hopes that Truss would U-turn and the BOE would go back to doing QT.

Among notable moves in premarket trading, US-listed Macau casino stocks fell amid concerns around the impact from China’s Covid Zero strategy, after the Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper ran a series of commentaries this week touting the benefits of the policy. Comcast Corp. and Altice USA Inc. rose after Citigroup Inc. analysts upgraded the cable company stocks given their ability to generate annual cash flow. Here are other notable premarket movers:

  • American Express (AXP US) declines 0.9% in US premarket trading, as Citi downgraded the stock along with shares of SLM Corp. (SLM US) and Velocity Financial (VEL US) amid likely “rather large” EPS impact even from mild US recession as credit losses build.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT US) falls as much as 1.3% in premarket trading after the chip- equipment maker slashed its earnings forecast as the semiconductor industry reacts to the Biden administration’s new restrictions on doing business with China.
  • Chip stocks are in focus after Applied Materials cut its forecast. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., meanwhile, lowered its capital spending target while setting its 4Q gross-margin target above expectations. Watch KLA (KLAC US), Lam Research (LRCX US), Qualcomm (QCOM US), Nvidia (NVDA US), AMD (AMD US)
  • US-listed Macau casino stocks fall in premarket trading amid concerns around the impact from China’s Covid Zero strategy, after the Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper ran a series of commentaries this week touting the benefits of the policy.
  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) -2.2%, Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) -1.4%, MGM Resorts (MGM US) -2.2%
  • Keep an eye on Owens & Minor (OMI US) stock as it was downgraded to neutral at Citi following the medical and surgical supplier’s “disappointing” third-quarter results on Wednesday. Analyst Daniel Grosslight said Wednesday’s 35% selloff seemed “punitive,” but was not “wholly unwarranted.”
  • QuidelOrtho (QDEL US) jumped 9% in extended trading on Wednesday after the health-care services company reported better-than-expected preliminary revenue for the third quarter, thanks to higher Covid-19 testing revenue.

Away from the US rollercoaster, the September reading of the consumer price index, due at 8:30 a.m. today, is expected to decelerate to an 8.1% annual pace amid a decline in gasoline prices. However, the so-called core figure, which excludes food and energy, is projected to have returned to a four-decade high. With investors already worried that underlying strength in the economy will prompt the Fed to keep aggressively raising rates, strategists have warned that hotter-than-expected inflation data could firm up bets of another large rate hike next month and fuel further stock-market declines. The index is already down about 25% so far this year and is in a bear market.

“I don’t think it’s quite time to buy the dip right now,” Oliver Kettlewell, head of fixed income and global portfolios at Mashreq Capital, said on Bloomberg TV. “You need to see data bottoming first and I don’t think the Fed will pivot anytime soon. There is more weakness in the stock markets to come. I don’t think it will fall 40-50%, but it certainly looks like it will get weaker from here.”

The third-quarter company earnings season also kicks off tomorrow and the key question for investors is whether profit margins remained resilient amid surging costs. Although analysts have downgraded estimates in recent weeks, some strategists have warned that the cuts don’t yet reflect the bleaker outlook for economic growth.

In Europe, travel, energy and banks are the strongest performing sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.4%. FTSE MIB outperforms peers, adding 1%, FTSE 100 lags, adding 0.2%. Here are the biggest movers:

  • Norsk Hydro shares gain as much as 8% after people familiar with the matter said the Biden administration is considering a ban on Russian aluminum supplies.
  • Entain rises as much as 4.5% following its third-quarter trading update, with some analysts highlighting rising market share in the US and benefits from upcoming sporting events such as the FIFA World Cup.
  • UK domestic stocks gain as government bonds bounce back and the pound rises. British assets have been volatile as the Friday deadline for Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying program looms. Lloyds rises as much as 3.7% while Barclays gained as much as 1.8%.
  • Zotefoams shares surge as much as 30% after the polyethylene foam manufacturer said it expects earnings to be significantly ahead of market expectations. Peel Hunt said positive trends in key end markets makes them confident in the near term and future.
  • ASML shares fall as much as 3.2% after peer Applied Materials slashed its 4Q sales forecast, citing new US export control rules. Meanwhile, top customer TSMC reduced its 2022 capex target by about 10% amid a collapse in global chip demand.
  • Shares of Banca Monte dei Paschi drop as much as 20%, to a record low, after the Italian lender set the terms of its rights offer at a discount to the theoretical ex-rights price.
  • Aroundtown falls as much as 7.9% after Citi downgrades the stock to neutral and opens a negative catalyst watch on the real estate company as it prepares “for the worst.”

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell for the fifth straight session as caution prevailed ahead of key US inflation data due later Thursday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1%, with consumer discretionary and communication services shares falling the most. Chinese tech shares plunged for a sixth day, the longest streak in almost a year, dragging down Hong Kong’s benchmark. Stocks in Japan and South Korea were also down. Chinese shares lost momentum amid a pick-up in Covid cases, after staging a strong intraday rebound in the previous session. Investors also monitored developments ahead of the upcoming Communist Party congress, which may introduce further policies to shore up growth.

A hot US consumer price index reading may spur another outsized interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting. Minutes released Wednesday from the last meeting suggested some officials considered reducing the pace of rate hikes, but overall market sentiment remains jittery. Fed Officials Commit to Restrictive Rates But Calibration Needed The main MSCI Asian stock gauge is trading around its lowest level since April 2020, having fallen almost 30% this year.  The region’s stocks are “pricing in low expectations and limited investor appetite, after significant earnings and price underperformance as an asset class over the last decade,” said Sundeep Bihani, a portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments. But “a rising rate cycle, delayed Covid-19 re-opening versus the West and cash-rich balance sheets provide a good pathway to grow out of this underperformance,” he added.

Japanese stocks fell for a fourth day, dragged by telecoms and services providers, ahead of anxiously awaited US inflation data due later Thursday. The Topix fell 0.8% to close at 1,854.61, while the Nikkei declined 0.6% to 26,237.42. Daikin Industries Ltd. contributed the most to the Topix decline, decreasing 2.9%. Out of 2,167 stocks in the index, 381 rose and 1,725 fell, while 61 were unchanged.

Australian stocks, meanwhile, were steady ahead of the CPI report. The S&P/ASX 200 index closed 0.1% lower at 6,642.60 ahead of the US inflation data due later Thursday. Gains in financial shares were partly offset by losses in miners as gold price retreated. Qantas Airways was the best performer after the airline returned to profit following a streak of five consecutive half-yearly losses. Nib dropped after announcing a share placement. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 10,817.48.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index falls 0.1%. CHF and JPY are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NOK and GBP outperform. Pound reclaims $1.11.

In rates, treasuries were mixed after erasing declines, with 10-year note futures near Wednesday’s high ahead of the key CPI data at 8:30am New York time. US yields in belly of curve are richer by 1bp-2bp, steepening 5s30s spread; 10-year erased a 3.7bp increase, is near flat at 3.89% with gilts in the sector richer by 18bp. Sharp bull-flattening in gilts drove earlier price action; 30-year UK yields fall some 29bps to 4.53% while 10-year declines 20bps to 4.22%. Bunds 10-year yield -3.7bps to 2.27% and USTs 10-year yield is little changed.  After CPI, focal point of US session is 30-year bond auction at 1pm. This week’s Treasury auction cycle concludes with $18b 30-year bond reopening; its 3- and 10-year note sales tailed.

In commodities, WTI trades within Wednesday’s range at near $87.33. Like OPEC, the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report lowered 2022 oil demand growth outlook by 60k BPD to 1.9mln BPD, 2023 cut by 470k BPD to 1.7mln BPD. World oil demand will contract by 340k BPD Y/Y in Q4.  Spot gold gains traction as the Dollar declines ahead of US CPI, with the yellow metal back above its 21 DMA (1,672.50/oz). Base metals are firmer across the board amid the Dollar’s recent decline alongside the gains across stocks, with 3M copper back above USD 7,500/t, whilst LME aluminium outperforms.

Bitcoin tumbled again, sliding to $18,760 while ethereum dropped to a session low of $1,260.

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US CPI release for September. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel and the BoE’s Mann.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,605.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 384.73
  • MXAP down 1.0% to 136.16
  • MXAPJ down 1.1% to 440.03
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 26,237.42
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,854.61
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 16,389.11
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,016.36
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 57,242.19
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,642.61
  • Kospi down 1.8% to 2,162.87
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.31%
  • Euro little changed at $0.9705
  • Brent Futures up 1.0% to $93.35/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,673.32
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 113.28

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng said the Bank of England will be responsible if UK markets suffer renewed volatility after its bond-buying program ends on Friday
  • UK pension funds are dumping assets to meet margin calls as the BOE confirmed it will end emergency bond buying, and the reverberations are being felt everywhere from Sydney to Frankfurt and New York
  • Sweden’s inflation rate reached a three- decade high last month, driven by electricity prices and the weakness of the country’s currency, keeping alive bets that the central bank could opt for faster rate hikes than its current path suggests
  • Yen traders are readying for another volatile session Thursday with the release of key US inflation figures — data which sent the Japanese currency tumbling 2% in a matter of minutes last month on its path toward intervention
  • A Chinese developer with state backing for domestic funding has defaulted on a convertible bond and warned it may face a similar fate on offshore debt, fueling concern about Beijing’s ability to contain a broader property debt crisis
  • European natural gas jumped as worries over major facilities in Norway added to supply risks from Russia. Benchmark futures rose as much as 9.2%, after earlier swinging between gains and losses. Norway’s Nyhamna gas project is being evacuated, Dagens Naeringsliv reported

A more detailed global summary of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

European bourses saw a choppy start to the session but have since been trending higher despite a lack of fresh fundamental drivers. Sectors are now mostly firmer, although tech remains the laggard after TSMC cut its capex guidance and flagged a decline in overall chip industry next year. Stateside, futures have been moving in tandem with their European counterparts, whilst the tech-laden NQ lags vs its peers.

Top European News

  • ECB’s Wunsch said it is better to start QT sooner than later, via a pre-recorded CNBC interview.
  • EDF Working Council said in the event of a normal or very cold winter, EDF will be forced to take some users off the electricity grid; capacities will not suffice.
  • Goldman Analyst Sees UK Property Prices Falling 20% on Rate Rise
  • NATO Countries Back German Plan for European Anti-Missile Shield
  • Monte Paschi Sets Terms on Rights Offer as Banks Back Deal

Asia stocks traded cautiously following the soft handover from Wall Street where markets ended the session marginally lower after hot PPI data and mixed FOMC Minutes which spurred a short-lived dovish reaction. ASX 200 was kept afloat by outperformance in its top-weighted financials sector and as earnings optimism provided a tailwind with Qantas shares flying high on expectations for a return to profit for the current 6-month period. Nikkei 225 was lacklustre following recent currency weakness and firm PPI data which climbed to a 5-month high. KOSPI underperformed after North Korean leader Kim guided a test firing of long-range strategic cruise missiles which hit a target 2,000km away and are capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were both subdued as China continued to advocate the strict zero-COVID approach with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson noting that China needs COVID security to achieve economic growth, although downside in the mainland was contained amid support for the property industry with China local governments to purchase houses as stimulus to help developers.

Top Asian News

  • China Semiconductor Industry Association said it opposes the US Commerce Department’s export control regulations and hopes the US government can correct wrong practices in a timely manner, while it was separately reported that TSMC (2330 TT) received a 1-year US licence for China chip expansion.
  • TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) Q3 2022 (TWD): Net profit 280.9bln (exp. 265.64bln), Gross margin 60.4% (exp. 58.9%), and said the Co. faces challenges from rising inflationary costs in 2023; 2022 Capex seen around USD 36bln (vs prev. guidance of USD 40-44bln); sees Q4 business around flat; not considering share buyback
  • Samsung (005930 KS) has been granted a 1yr exemption from new US restrictions that block exports of advanced chips and related equipment to China, according to WSJ sources.
  • Chinese Health Official said China will continue to strengthen COVID prevention and control, will resolutely guard against large-scale outbreaks, Reuters.
  • Chinese local governments are to purchase houses as stimulus to support developers, according to China Securities Times.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said excess FX volatility and disorderly moves can hurt the economy and financial stability, while he told the G20 that Japan is deeply worried about recent sharp FX volatility and explained that recent intervention was prompted by excess moves by speculators. Furthermore, Suzuki said they cannot tolerate excess FX moves by speculators and will take decisive action on speculative FX moves in which they are focused on FX volatility rather than the yen level regarding intervention, according to Reuters.

FX

  • DXY declined under 113.00 ahead of the US CPI metric, although likely as a function of GBP strength throughout the European morning.
  • EUR benefits from the pullback in the Buck, with EUR/USD back above 0.9700.
  • Antipodeans are also faring well alongside the improved risk tone across markets.
  • USD/CNH tested 7.2000 to the upside, whilst China continues with its zero-COVID policy ahead of the CCP National Congress.

Fixed Income

  • US Treasuries are still observing some caution before potentially key CPI data, but EU bonds are flying just a day after diving to new cycle lows.
  • UK debt is leading the mainstream recovery whilst there is chat in UK markets about another possible fiscal U-turn and/or the BoE relenting on buy-backs to offer further assistance beyond tomorrow, albeit all speculation at this stage.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly firmer intraday but off best levels after settling lower yesterday.
  • IEA Monthly Oil Market Report: lowers 2022 oil demand growth outlook by 60k BPD to 1.9mln BPD, 2023 cut by 470k BPD to 1.7mln BPD. World oil demand will contract by 340k BPD Y/Y in Q4.
  • Spot gold gains traction as the Dollar declines ahead of US CPI, with the yellow metal back above its 21 DMA (1,672.50/oz).
  • Base metals are firmer across the board amid the Dollar’s recent decline alongside the gains across stocks, with 3M copper back above USD 7,500/t, whilst LME aluminium outperforms

Geopolitics

  • Sites in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv were targeted by shelling early today, according to the administration in Kyiv cited by Sky News Arabia. Furthermore, Ukrainian President Zelensky’s office later said that a critical infrastructure facility was hit by drone strikes in the Kyiv region, according to Reuters.
  • Ukraine President Zelenskiy said cannot have diplomacy with Russia today and cannot respect leaders who are killing and not respecting international law.
  • Saudi Arabia fully rejected statements criticising the kingdom after the OPEC+ output cut decision, while it said that statements critical of the kingdom are not based on facts and set the OPEC+ decision outside its economic context.
  • US officials are concerned the Russian oil price cap will fail as a result of the OPEC+ cut, according to Bloomberg.
  • North Korean leader Kim guided a test firing of long-range strategic cruise missiles which hit a target 2,000km away and are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, while North Korean leader Kim said focus should be on developing nuclear forces, according to Yonhap and KCNA.
  • North Korea reportedly cancelled a meeting with the EU diplomatic service, while the reason was unclear but followed two recent statements from Brussels that may have impacted DPRK decision-making, according to NK News citing sources.
  • Japan’s Defence Minister said North Korea has likely achieved the capability of mounting a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile that could reach Japan, according to Reuters.
  • US FCC is set to ban all US sales of new Huawei and ZTE equipment as well as some sales of video surveillance equipment from three other Chinese firms amid national security concerns, according to Axios citing sources.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Sept. CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
    • CPI YoY, est. 8.1%, prior 8.3%
    • CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
    • CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 6.5%, prior 6.3%
  • 08:30: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 219,000
  • Continuing Claims, est. 1.37m, prior 1.36m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There’s been little relief for investors over the last 24 hours, with the major asset classes fluctuating between gains and losses as markets were left with plenty of global developments to digest. For much of the day it had looked as though we might see equities begin to stabilise, but ultimately the S&P 500 (-0.33%) nose-dived into the close to decline for a 6th consecutive session and hit its lowest level since November 2020. For reference, if we get a 7th consecutive decline, that would be the worst run for the index since February 2020 as fears about the global spread of Covid-19 ramped up. Whether that happens could largely hinge on today’s all-important CPI print from the US, which is the last big piece of data the Fed will get ahead of their next decision in just under 3 weeks’ time. Bear in mind it was only last month that the stronger-than-expected reading on core CPI sparked a big re-evaluation about when the Fed would slow down their rate hikes, with futures pricing out the chances they’d adjust to 50bp hikes in November in favour of a continued 75bps pace. In turn, that triggered the biggest one-day decline in the S&P 500 since June 2020, with a -4.32% move, so investors will be keenly attuned for any fresh surprises today.

Ahead of that release, we got an advance look yesterday at US inflation pressures last month from the PPI reading. That showed the monthly headline measure coming in above expectations at +0.4% (vs. +0.2% expected), which also meant that the year-on-year measure only fell back to +8.5% (vs. +8.4% expected). The core measure excluding food and energy was more in line with expectations however, coming in at +0.3%, with the year-on-year core reading at +7.2% (vs. +7.3% expected). In terms of what our US economists are expecting for today, they think that the headline CPI print will come in at +0.28% (vs. +0.12% in August) as energy continues to drag on the main print. However, they see core CPI which excludes energy and food prices coming in at a stronger +0.44% (vs. +0.57% in September), and it’s that reading which should get the most focus given last month’s upside surprise. In turn, those numbers should push the year-on-year CPI down to +8.1%, while core CPI should pick up to +6.5%.

As we look forward to the CPI print later, there are some initial signs of markets recovering their poise, with the VIX index of volatility (-0.06pts) ticking lower for the first time in a week. That coincided with continued falls in US equities, as mentioned, with the S&P 500 down -0.33% and the NASDAQ a hair lower at -0.09%, although futures today are pointing modestly higher, with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.16%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.11%) both advancing. One factor supporting the amidst the broader uncertainty was some positive corporate news as we head into earnings season, with PepsiCo (+4.18%) being one of the top performers in the S&P after they increased their profit and sales outlook for the rest of the year. That said, the European indices were much less positive, with the STOXX 600 (-0.53%) losing ground for a 6th consecutive session, and European equity futures are pointing towards further losses again today.

Those equity losses yesterday came as we got the minutes from the recent September FOMC meeting, which reflected the growing debate on the Committee about the risks to over- or under-doing the tightening cycle. Several participants highlighting the need to maintain a restrictive stance as long as necessary and the danger of prematurely easing policy, while several participants observed risks would become more two-sided as policy moved into restrictive territory. There was also continued debate about the form of labour market softening that would be required to help return inflation to target; would unemployment go up or job openings go down? This debate isn’t new in Fed commentary, but the emphasis placed on both camps drove Treasury yields a bit lower following the release. In terms of yesterday’s comments, President Kashkari said earlier in the session that the bar for a monetary policy pivot was “very high”. By the end of the day, 2yr Treasury yields had fallen -1.5bps, 10yr yields retreated -5.1bps, while pricing for the November FOMC was almost unchanged at +73.9bps. Overnight, 10yr yields (+2.5bps) have seen another move higher, trading at 3.92% as we go to press.

Back here in the UK, there was still plenty going on yesterday, with the main development being that a BoE spokesperson reiterated Governor Bailey’s comments from Tuesday evening that their intervention in the gilts market would come to an end tomorrow as planned. The spokesperson said that “temporary and targeted purchases of gilts will end on 14 October” and that this “has been made absolutely clear in contact with the banks at senior levels.” That message also pushed back against what the FT had reported in the small hours of yesterday, where they said that the BoE had privately signalled they could extend the intervention past Friday’s deadline.

Against this backdrop, UK assets remained volatile, with the 30yr gilt yield (+2.3bps) rising above 5% at one point for the first time since the BoE’s intervention began, before paring back nearly all those gains to close at 4.80%. In fact, the 30yr was actually one of the few maturities to see yields rise on the day, with 2yr gilt yields down -20.3bps, and 10yr gilt yields down -0.4bps. However, there were other signs that investors were still nervous, with implied sterling-dollar volatility over the next month moving higher once again to the levels seen right after the mini-budget announcement in late September. Interestingly, there was also a warning from the Conservative chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Mel Stride, who tweeted about the government’s tax cuts that “Credibility might now be swinging towards evidence of a clear change in tack rather than just coming up with other measures that try to square the fiscal circle.” In the meantime, we heard from BoE Chief Economist Pill too, who pointed towards further rate hikes in saying that “I am still inclined to believe that a significant monetary policy response will be required to the significant macro and market news of the past few weeks.”

Elsewhere in Europe, sovereign bonds had followed a similar pattern to gilts, with sharp rises early in the session to fresh multi-year highs before those gains were then pared back significantly. For instance, yields on 10yr bunds had exceeded the 2.40% mark at one stage, before only closing up +1.4bps at 2.30%, whilst yields on 10yr OATs (+3.0bps) and BTPs (+6.2bps) echoed that movement. Those moves came as we heard from ECB policymakers, including President Lagarde who confirmed that discussions on QT had started. There were also comments from others on the Governing Council, including Austria’s Holzmann (one of the biggest hawks) who said that markets were “spot on” about the ECB’s plans, and that a 100bp hike was “beyond what we would need to signal to the market that we are serious. The Netherlands’ Knot separately said that policy rates were “still way below neutral” and that “at least two more significant hikes” were needed before the ECB got back into “the range of plausible estimates for neutral”.

Staying on Europe, our colleagues in corporate credit research have separately published a report analysing risk-free hedges in place (link here), and start to quantify the impact on leverage loan and HY issuers. The report may be sector-biased, but the thought process has broader market implications worth considering.

This morning in Asia, the major equity markets have followed the moves lower in the US and Europe ahead of that US inflation print later on. Currently, the Kospi (-1.14%) is the biggest underperformer, although the Hang Seng (-1.00%), the Nikkei (-0.48%) and the CSI (-0.29%) have also lost ground. The main exception is the Shanghai Composite (+0.16%), which has made modest gains. Those moves have occurred amidst further weakness for the Japanese yen, which has remained above the 146 level this morning against the dollar, having hit a post-1998 low yesterday of 146.97 per US Dollar. That follows comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda, who promised to keep monetary easing in place, contrasting with the other central banks. Separately, data this morning showed that producer prices had risen more than expected in September, coming in at +9.7% year-on-year (vs. +8.9% expected).

Looking at yesterday’s other data, UK monthly GDP unexpectedly contracted in August with a -0.3% decline (vs. unch expected), and July’s growth was revised down to +0.1% (vs. +0.2% previously). Elsewhere, Euro Area industrial production grew by +1.5% in August (vs. +0.7% expected).

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US CPI release for September. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel and the BoE’s Mann.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

European bourses saw a choppy start to the session but have since been trending higher; DXY dipped under 113.00 – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 06:42 AM

  • European bourses saw a choppy start to the session but have since been trending higher, with US futures are moving in tandem
  • DXY declined under 113.00 as GBP strengthened; EUR and Antipodeans gain whilst USD/CNH tested 7.2000 to the upside
  • US Treasuries are observing some caution whilst EU bonds trim yesterday’s losses and Gilts outperform
  • Fed’s Bowman (voter) said sizeable rate hikes should remain on the table if they do not see signs that inflation is moving down 
  • Chinese Health Official said China will continue to strengthen COVID prevention and control, will resolutely guard against large-scale outbreaks
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, US DoE, Astana Summit, Speech from BoE’s Mann, Supply from the US

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

13th October 2022

  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses saw a choppy start to the session but have since been trending higher despite a lack of fresh fundamental drivers.
  • Sectors are now mostly firmer, although tech remains the laggard after TSMC cut its capex guidance and flagged a decline in overall chip industry next year.
  • Stateside, futures have been moving in tandem with their European counterparts, whilst the tech-laden NQ lags vs its peers.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY declined under 113.00 ahead of the US CPI metric, although likely as a function of GBP strength throughout the European morning.
  • EUR benefits from the pullback in the Buck, with EUR/USD back above 0.9700.
  • Antipodeans are also faring well alongside the improved risk tone across markets.
  • USD/CNH tested 7.2000 to the upside, whilst China continues with its zero-COVID policy ahead of the CCP National Congress.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 0.9640-50 (1.22BN), 0.9735-55 (1.04BN)
  • USD/JPY: 147.25 (1.9BN)
  • Click here for more detail

FIXED INCOME

  • US Treasuries are still observing some caution before potentially key CPI data, but EU bonds are flying just a day after diving to new cycle lows.
  • UK debt is leading the mainstream recovery whilst there is chat in UK markets about another possible fiscal U-turn and/or the BoE relenting on buy-backs to offer further assistance beyond tomorrow, albeit all speculation at this stage.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly firmer intraday but off best levels after settling lower yesterday.
  • IEA Monthly Oil Market Report: lowers 2022 oil demand growth outlook by 60k BPD to 1.9mln BPD, 2023 cut by 470k BPD to 1.7mln BPD. World oil demand will contract by 340k BPD Y/Y in Q4.
  • Spot gold gains traction as the Dollar declines ahead of US CPI, with the yellow metal back above its 21 DMA (1,672.50/oz).
  • Base metals are firmer across the board amid the Dollar’s recent decline alongside the gains across stocks, with 3M copper back above USD 7,500/t, whilst LME aluminium outperforms
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • ECB’s Wunsch said it is better to start QT sooner than later, via a pre-recorded CNBC interview.
  • EDF Working Council said in the event of a normal or very cold winter, EDF will be forced to take some users off the electricity grid; capacities will not suffice.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Fed’s Bowman (voter) said sizeable rate hikes should remain on the table if they do not see signs that inflation is moving down and she fully supported Fed’s 75bps hikes but also stated that a slower pace of rate hikes would be appropriate if inflation starts to decline. Bowman said it is not yet clear how high rates will need to go and inflation is much too high which they must bring down, as well as stated that the FFR will need to increase to a restrictive level and remain there for some time. Furthermore, she noted that significant uncertainty on the inflation outlook makes it challenging to provide precise guidance on the path of rates, while she added that the outlook for inflation and economic activity has significant two-sided risks, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin just about holds onto USD 19,000 whilst Ethereum hovers around USD 1,275.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Sites in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv were targeted by shelling early today, according to the administration in Kyiv cited by Sky News Arabia. Furthermore, Ukrainian President Zelensky’s office later said that a critical infrastructure facility was hit by drone strikes in the Kyiv region, according to Reuters.
  • Ukraine President Zelenskiy said cannot have diplomacy with Russia today and cannot respect leaders who are killing and not respecting international law.

OTHER

  • Saudi Arabia fully rejected statements criticising the kingdom after the OPEC+ output cut decision, while it said that statements critical of the kingdom are not based on facts and set the OPEC+ decision outside its economic context.
  • US officials are concerned the Russian oil price cap will fail as a result of the OPEC+ cut, according to Bloomberg.
  • North Korean leader Kim guided a test firing of long-range strategic cruise missiles which hit a target 2,000km away and are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, while North Korean leader Kim said focus should be on developing nuclear forces, according to Yonhap and KCNA.
  • North Korea reportedly cancelled a meeting with the EU diplomatic service, while the reason was unclear but followed two recent statements from Brussels that may have impacted DPRK decision-making, according to NK News citing sources.
  • Japan’s Defence Minister said North Korea has likely achieved the capability of mounting a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile that could reach Japan, according to Reuters.
  • US FCC is set to ban all US sales of new Huawei and ZTE equipment as well as some sales of video surveillance equipment from three other Chinese firms amid national security concerns, according to Axios citing sources.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks traded cautiously following the soft handover from Wall Street where markets ended the session marginally lower after hot PPI data and mixed FOMC Minutes which spurred a short-lived dovish reaction.
  • ASX 200 was kept afloat by outperformance in its top-weighted financials sector and as earnings optimism provided a tailwind with Qantas shares flying high on expectations for a return to profit for the current 6-month period.
  • Nikkei 225 was lacklustre following recent currency weakness and firm PPI data which climbed to a 5-month high.
  • KOSPI underperformed after North Korean leader Kim guided a test firing of long-range strategic cruise missiles which hit a target 2,000km away and are capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were both subdued as China continued to advocate the strict zero-COVID approach with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson noting that China needs COVID security to achieve economic growth, although downside in the mainland was contained amid support for the property industry with China local governments to purchase houses as stimulus to help developers.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • China Semiconductor Industry Association said it opposes the US Commerce Department’s export control regulations and hopes the US government can correct wrong practices in a timely manner, while it was separately reported that TSMC (2330 TT) received a 1-year US licence for China chip expansion.
  • TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) Q3 2022 (TWD): Net profit 280.9bln (exp. 265.64bln), Gross margin 60.4% (exp. 58.9%), and said the Co. faces challenges from rising inflationary costs in 2023; 2022 Capex seen around USD 36bln (vs prev. guidance of USD 40-44bln); sees Q4 business around flat; not considering share buyback
  • Samsung (005930 KS) has been granted a 1yr exemption from new US restrictions that block exports of advanced chips and related equipment to China, according to WSJ sources.
  • Chinese Health Official said China will continue to strengthen COVID prevention and control, will resolutely guard against large-scale outbreaks, Reuters.
  • Chinese local governments are to purchase houses as stimulus to support developers, according to China Securities Times.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said excess FX volatility and disorderly moves can hurt the economy and financial stability, while he told the G20 that Japan is deeply worried about recent sharp FX volatility and explained that recent intervention was prompted by excess moves by speculators. Furthermore, Suzuki said they cannot tolerate excess FX moves by speculators and will take decisive action on speculative FX moves in which they are focused on FX volatility rather than the yen level regarding intervention, according to Reuters.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1101 vs exp. 7.1248 (prev. 7.1103)

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Sep) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.4%)
  • Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Sep) 9.7% vs. Exp. 8.8% (Prev. 9.0%, Rev. 9.4%)

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.15 PTS OR 0.30%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 311.92 OR 1.87%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 159.41PTS OR 0.60%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.12%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.1818 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1894//    /Oil DOWN TO 87.39 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.71    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA/HOUSING

The IMF points to a nightmare scenario, a housing crisis in China.  About 45% of developers are witnessing their bonds trade at 40 cents on the dollar

This could bring to banks to their knees

(zerohedge)

IMF Draws Up Nightmare Scenario Of Housing Crisis

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 07:25 PM

By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets reporter and analyst

China’s housing market has a reputation as the most-important sector in the universe (in late 2021, Goldman estimated it as the world’s largest asset class at over $60 trillion)

So its continued slump naturally raises concerns among officials, even those beyond China’s borders. The International Monetary Fund, for instance, this week painted a bleak picture of how China’s housing slump may morph into a banking crisis. In one scenario, 15% of small banks may go under.

Such a scenario remains a left-tail risk, but it underscores what’s at stake as President Xi Jinping attempts to keep the economy afloat.

Recent lending data showed that long-term household loan demand, a proxy for home mortgages, remains fairly weak, even as broad credit growth shows signs of improvement. In the debt market, the struggles of a Chinese developer that until recently was able to access state-backed funding shows there’s no light at the end of the tunnel of the crisis.

In its global financial-stability report, the IMF devoted one section to a discussion of China’s housing woes. The underlying problem is well-documented. Declining home sales and a lack of access to financing are worsening the credit crunch among developers. That reduces their ability to complete the construction of apartments. The stalled projects lead home buyers to boycott mortgage payments, which puts pressure on banks, which causes them to turn more cautious in lending to the sector.

In such a vicious cycle, many developers are on the brink of collapsing. The IMF’s analysis showed that 45% of developers might not be able to cover their debt obligations with earnings, and 20% of them could become insolvent if their inventory value is marked to current property prices.

It’s small wonder, then, why about 70% of offshore bonds of developers trade at 40 cents on the dollar or less, suggesting that debt restructuring may be inevitable for a large share of the sector.Source: IMF

More importantly, property developers’ failures could spill over into the banking sector, particularly small banks. If 10% of banks’ exposure to distressed developers and 10% of the mortgages related to unfinished homes become non-performing loans, the IMF estimates that 15% of the banks in its study, which represents 10% of China’s total banking assets, would fail to meet minimum capital requirements and require bailouts. (The 15% estimate is close to what other economists are saying.)Source: IMF

The chain reaction doesn’t end here. Constrained by falling revenue from land sales, local governments have limited resources to support the real-estate sector. If so, “there could be adverse spillovers to the broader corporate sector, where vulnerabilities are already high,” the IMF warned.

As a watchdog, the IMF’s job is to be the Cassandra who sounds the alarm. Understanding the risk, Beijing has already stepped up its support for the market. But so far, there are few signs of a meaningful turnaround in the market, with consumer confidence stuck at rock bottom. The longer the crisis drags on, the more likely the nightmare scenario becomes a reality.

end

CHINA

Chinese job prospects worst on record as their economy slows

(zerohedge)

Chinese Job Prospects ‘Worst On Record’ As Economy Slows

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 09:05 PM

Chinese workers are experiencing the worst job market prospects on record amid an economic slowdown that will give CCP policymakers much to talk about during a key political meeting next week, Bloomberg reports.

The Chinese central bank’s Employment Sentiment Index – a survey of 20,000 households’ employment outlook – plummeted to 35.4 in the third quarter – its lowest level since the index was launched in 2010, according to a Sunday report published by the People’s Bank of China.

Around 42% of households reported that finding a job had been “tough” or “hard to judge,” while just 9.7% of those asked said it was ‘easy’ to find work.

According to economist Tommy Xie of Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, the deteriorating confidence will likely delay an economic recovery, as weak sentiment is the result of several factors which include regulatory crackdowns, Covid restrictions and a softened real estate market.

The continually weakening household sector is the biggest challenge in the economy,” said Xie, adding “A comprehensive policy package that takes both Covid and industry regulation into considerations will be needed to boost people’s confidence.”

The survey underlines dwindling confidence as growth is dragged down by repeated Covid flare-ups and a property market slump that has lasted for more than a year. Job prospects for young people are especially bleak, with the unemployment rate for those aged 16-24 at nearly 19%, almost four times the official urban jobless rate of 5.3%. Separate data from the purchasing managers surveys last week showed ongoing job losses in the services sector, a major employer.

Top officials have highlighted the importance of employment as a key focus for the government as they downplay growth targets. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict gross domestic product will grow just 3.3% this year, well below the official goal of around 5.5%. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile, private investment in fixed assets only expanded 2.3% in the first 8 months of 2022, the slowest pace since the end of 2020, while retail sales posted month-on-month declines for two straight months – only the second time since 2011 this has happened. Holiday spending over last week’s National Day break was also lower than a year ago.

Adding to the sour outlook, the PBOC survey revealed that just 14.8% of respondents think home prices will rise in the next quarter – the lowest since 2010, while 16.3% said they expect home prices to fall – the highest percentage since the first quarter of 2015. 56.6% of those surveyed forecast no change.

“The property sector may be nearing an inflection point,” said Liu Peiqian, chief China economist at NatWest Group Plc. “The industry may be bottoming out in terms of policies, and once that happens, the sector may start to stabilize and gradually improve.”

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK 

Rumours have it that Truss’s government has blinked and will fold on tax cuts which in turn will give breathing room for Bailey to continue with his QT after Friday

(zerohedge)

UK Gilts, Sterling Surge On Reports Kwarteng Folds On Tax-Cuts; No.10 Denies

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 07:58 AM

Just as we suggested yesterday, it appears The Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey has won the game of chicken with the UK government as Bloomberg reports, according to a person familiar with their conversations, UK officials at No. 10 and the Treasury are discussing how they can back down from Prime Minister Liz Truss’s plans for a massive unfunded package of tax cuts.

Additionally, The Sun reports that UK Prime Minister Liz Truss is considering raising Corporation Tax next year.

Officials are reportedly drafting options for Truss on proposed tax cuts, but there is no final decision and they will wait for Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng to return from the IMF meetings in Washington.

Has the government finally heeded the calls from markets and the Bank of England? Price action in gilts and the pound suggests markets believe so,” said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe.

“If the rumors are to be believed, we are now finally looking at a potentially more fundamental basis for traders to turn bullish on the pound.”

Ironically, just last night, Kwarteng said the Bank of England will be responsible if UK markets suffer renewed volatility after its bond-buying program ends on Friday.

Kwarteng told Sky News that any turmoil after the central bank withdraws support  “is a matter for the governor.”

Finally, we note that Sky’s Sam Coates reports in a tweet that the UK government denies any changes to mini budget.

The Guardian’s Political Editor also throws doubt on the report:

For now, the market is buying it with Cable surging…

And Gilt yields tumbling…

The implications here are that if the Truss government does indeed blink then it gives BoE breathing room to cut off the ‘temporary’ bailout and revert to quantitative tightening.

end

EU/ECB

Idiotic reason for the delta in the stock market.  The CPI caused markets to falter badly, then ECB release this phony model and then markets skyrocket

(zerohedge)

Stocks Erase CPI Losses After ECB Headlines

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 11:31 AM

Reuters is reporting that an ECB staff model (presented the model to policymakers at a retreat in Cyprus last week.) puts the target-consistent terminal rate at 2.25%. That is dramatically less than the market is expecting will be required by The ECB to tame inflation...

However, as Reuters reportspolicymakers at the gathering gave the model a mixed reception, with many criticising some of its basic assumptions after staff failed to predict the current surge in inflation, the sources said.

Rate-setters agreed this rate would be treated as an input for their internal deliberations but decided they wouldn’t use it as the ECB’s policy guidance or refer to it in official communication, which is led by President Christine Lagarde.

Policymakers’ key objection was that staff models have fared poorly in recent years so there was little confidence in an indicator that was so far below current market pricing, the sources said.

Strawman or not, US equity prices ripped higher on the report, perfectly erasing the losses from the US CPI report…

But as you can seem the markets are now trading lower, likely because of this little snippet buried in the Reuters report: “policymakers gave the new model a mixed reception and fear it could include errors”

Trade accordingly…

END

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/VS WEST/ENERGY

Putin warns that global energy infrastructure is now at risk after the bombing of the Kerch bridge

(zerohedge)

All Global Energy Infrastructure At Risk After This “Most Dangerous Precedent”: Putin

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 08:25 PM

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin addressed a Moscow energy forum on Wednesday and issued a grim forecast following last month’s sabotage attack on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea on September 26. 

Putin in the fresh comments warned that this “most dangerous precedent” means any and all energy infrastructure in the world is now at risk. Describing acts of state-sponsored terror and sabotage, the Russian leader explained, “It shows that any critically important object of transport, energy or utilities infrastructure is under threat irrespective of where it is located or by whom it is managed.”Danish Defense Ministry/AFP

He pointed the finger at “beneficiaries of the blasts” – which Putin named specifically as the United States, Poland, and Ukraine, though which entity or entities were behind it remains a mystery, and with little in the way of conclusive known evidence at this point.

The Wednesday remarks by Putin follow his assessment in the days after the sabotage incident which grabbed the world’s attention and shook global energy. He said at that time, “It’s obvious to everyone who benefits from it… Those who benefit are the ones who have done it.”

But US and Western officials, as well as the media, has blamed Russia for sabotaging its own pipelines in a bit of ‘conspiracy tit-for-tat’ speculation. An American military news outlet reviews, “The culprit behind the attacks on Nord Stream 2 has been widely speculated, with Western sources near unanimously blaming Russia while others have highlighted that the U.S. and possibly Britain or Poland are likely culprits.”

But then US Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised eyebrows when he called the sabotage attacks “a tremendous opportunity”…

He said in the surprisingly blunt Sept.30 press briefing while alongside Canada’s foreign minister that “ultimately this is also a tremendous opportunity. It’s a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponization of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs.”

He at the same time touted that the Untied States has now become “the leading supplier of LNG [liquefied natural gas] to Europe,” stressing too that the Biden administration is helping to enable European leaders to “decrease demand” and “speed up the transition to renewables.”

Many pundits have said this shows who most stands to benefit by the Nord Stream pipelines’ destruction and disruption; however, again there’s as yet no clear “smoking gun” evidence as to who was behind it.

END

The following is a must read as Pepe Escobar highlights the danger to the west with respect to their envolvement in the Kerch strait bridge terror. He describes what will be the probable outcome of this:

“Shock’n Awe will likely progress in three stages.

  • First: Overload of the Ukrainian air defense system (already on).
  • Second: Plunging Ukraine into the Dark Ages (already in progress).
  • Third: Destruction of all major military installations (the next wave).

Ukraine is about to embrace nearly total darkness in the next few days. Politically, that opens a completely new ball game. Considering Moscow’s trademark “strategic ambiguity,” this could be a sort of Desert Storm remixed (massive air strikes preparing a ground offensive); or, more likely, an ‘incentive’ to force NATO to negotiate; or just a relentless, systematic missile offensive mixed with Electronic Warfare (EW) to shatter for good Kiev’s capacity to wage war.

Or it could be all of the above”

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/THE WEST

Pepe Escobar)

Escobar: Terror On Crimea Bridge Forces Russia To Unleash Shock’n’Awe

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 11:25 PM

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

The western narrative of a ‘losing Russia’ has just been decimated by Moscow’s blitzkrieg against Ukraine and its foreign-backed terror operations…

The terror attack on Krymskiy Most – the Crimea Bridge – was the proverbial straw that broke the Eurasian camel’s back.

Russian President Vladimir Putin neatly summarized it: “This is a terrorist attack aimed at destroying the critical civilian infrastructure of the Russian Federation.”

The head of the Russian Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, confirmed face-to-face with Putin that Terror on the Bridge was carried out by the SBU – Ukrainian special services.

Bastrykin told Putin, “we have already established the route of the truck, where the explosion took place. Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, North Ossetia, Krasnodar… The carriers have been identified. With the help of operatives of the FSB, we managed to identify suspects.”

Russian intel leaked crucial info to military correspondent Alexander Kots. The cargo was ordered by a Ukrainian citizen: explosives packed in 22 pallets, in rolls of film under plastic wrap, were shipped from Bulgaria to the Georgian port of Poti. Afterwards, the cargo was loaded onto a truck with foreign license plates and proceeded overland to Armenia.

Clearance at the Armenia-Russia border was smooth – according to the rules of the Eurasian Customs Union (both Russia and Armenia are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, or EAEU). The cargo evidently avoided detection through X-rays. This route is standard for truckers traveling to Russia.

The truck then re-entered Georgia and crossed the border into Russia again, but this time through the Upper Lars checkpoint. That’s the same one used by thousands of Russians fleeing partial mobilization. The truck ended up in Armavir, where the cargo was transferred to another truck, under the responsibility of Mahir Yusubov: the one that entered the Crimean bridge coming from the Russian mainland.

Very important: the transport from Armavir to a delivery address in Simferopol should have happened on October 6-7: that is, timed to the birthday of President Putin on Friday the 7th. For some unexplained reason, that was postponed for a day.

The driver of the first truck is already testifying. Yusubov, the driver of the second truck – which exploded on the bridge – was “blind:” he had no idea what he was carrying, and is dead.

At this stage, two conclusions are paramount.

  • First: This was not a standard ISIS-style truck suicide bombing – the preferred interpretation in the aftermath of the terror attack.
  • Second: The packaging most certainly took place in Bulgaria. That, as Russian intel has cryptically implied, indicates the involvement of “foreign special services.”

‘A mirage of cause and effect’

What has been revealed in public by Russian intelligence tells only part of the story. An incandescent assessment received by The Cradle from another Russian intel source is way more intriguing.

At least 450 kg of explosives were employed in the blast. Not on the truck, but mounted inside the Crimea Bridge span itself. The white truck was just a decoy by the terrorists “to create a mirage of cause and effect.” When the truck reached the point on the bridge where the explosives were mounted, the explosion took place.

According to the source, railroad employees told investigators that there was a form of electronic hijacking; the terror operators took control of the railway so the train carrying fuel received a command to stop because of a false signal that the road ahead was busy.

Bombs mounted on the bridge spans were a working hypothesis largely debated in Russian military channels over the weekend, as well as the use of underwater drones.  

In the end, the quite sophisticated plan could not follow the necessarily rigid timing. There was no alignment by the millimeter between the mounted explosive charges, the passing truck and the fuel train stopped in its tracks. Damage was limited, and easily contained. The charges/truck combo exploded on the outer right lane of the road. Damage was only on two sections of the outer lane, and not much on the railway bridge.

In the end, Terror on the Bridge yielded a short, Pyrrhic PR victory – duly celebrated across the collective West – with negligible practical success: transfer of Russian military cargo by railway resumed in roughly 14 hours.

And that brings us to the key information in the Russian intel source assessment: the whodunnit.

It was a plan by the British MI6, says this source, without offering further details. Which, he elaborates, Russian intel, for a number of reasons, is shadow-playing as “foreign special services.”

It’s quite telling that the Americans rushed to establish plausible deniability. The proverbial “Ukrainian government official” told CIA mouthpiece The Washington Post that the SBU did it. That was a straight confirmation of an Ukrainska Pravda report based on an “unidentified law enforcement official.”

The perfect red line trifecta

Already, over the weekend, it was clear the ultimate red line had been crossed. Russian public opinion and media were furious. For all its status as an engineering marvel, Krymsky Most represents not only critical infrastructure; it is the visual symbol of the return of Crimea to Russia.

Moreover, this was a personal terror attack on Putin and the whole Russian security apparatus.

So we had, in sequence, Ukrainian terrorists blowing up Darya Dugina’s car in a Moscow suburb (they admitted it); US/UK special forces (partially) blowing Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 (they admitted and then retracted); and the terror attack on Krymsky Most  (once again: admitted then retracted).

Not to mention the shelling of Russian villages in Belgorod, NATO supplying long-range weapons to Kiev, and the routine execution of Russian soldiers.

Darya Dugina, Nord Streams and Crimea Bridge make it an Act of War trifecta. So this time the response was inevitable – not even waiting for the first meeting since February of the Russian Security Council scheduled for the afternoon of 10 October.

Moscow launched the first wave of a Russian Shock’n Awe without even changing the status of the Special Military Operation (SMO) to Counter-Terrorist Operation (CTO), with all its serious military/legal implications.

After all, even before the UN Security Council meeting, Russian public opinion was massively behind taking the gloves off. Putin had not even scheduled bilateral meetings with any of the members. Diplomatic sources hint that the decision to let the hammer come down had already been taken over the weekend.

Shock’n Awe did not wait for the announcement of an ultimatum to Ukraine (that may come in a few days); an official declaration of war (not necessary); or even announcing which ‘”decision-making centers” in Ukraine would be hit.

The lightning strike de facto metastasizing of SMO into CTO means that the regime in Kiev and those supporting it are now considered as legitimate targets, just like ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra during the Anti-Terror Operation (ATO) in Syria.

And the change of status – now this is a real war on terror – means that terminating all strands of terrorism, physical, cultural, ideological, are the absolute priority, and not the safety of Ukrainian civilians. During the SMO, safety of civilians was paramount. Even the UN has been forced to admit that in over seven months of SMO the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine has been relatively low.

Enter ‘Commander Armageddon’

The face of Russian Shock’n Awe is Russian Commander of the Aerospace Forces, Army General Sergey Surovikin: the new commander-in-chief of the now totally centralized SMO/CTO.

Questions were being asked non-stop: why didn’t Moscow take this decision way back in February? Well, better late than never. Kiev is now learning they messed with the wrong guy. Surovikin is widely respected – and feared: his nickname is “General Armageddon.” Others call him “Cannibal.” Legendary Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov – also a colonel general in the Russian military – lavishly praises Surovikin as “a real general and warrior, an experienced, strong-willed and far-sighted commander.”

Surovikin has been commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces since 2017; was awarded the title of Hero of Russia for his no-nonsense leadership of the military operation in Syria; and had on the ground experience in Chechnya in the 1990s.

Surovikin is Dr. Shock’n Awe with full carte blanche. That even rendered idle speculations that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov were removed or forced to resign, as speculated by the Wagner group Telegram channel Grey Zone.

It is still possible that Shoigu – widely criticized for recent Russian military setbacks – could be eventually replaced by Tula Governor Alexei Dyumin, and Gerasimov by the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces, Lieutenant General Alexander Matovnikov.

That’s almost irrevelant: all eyes are on Surovikin.  

MI6 does have some well-placed moles in Moscow, relatively speaking. The Brits had warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the General Staff that the Russians would be launching a “warning strike” this Monday.

What happened was no “warning strike,” but a massive offensive of over 100 cruise missiles launched “from the air, sea and land,” as Putin noted, against Ukrainian “energy, military command and communications facilities.” 

MI6 also noted “the next step” will be the complete destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. That’s not a “next step:” it’s already happening. Power supply is completely gone in five regions, including Lviv and Kharkov, and there are serious interruptions in other five, including Kiev.

Over 60 percent of Ukrainian power grids are already knocked out. Over 75 percent of internet traffic is gone. Elon Musk’s Starlink netcentric warfare has been “disconnected” by the Ministry of Defense.

Shock’n Awe will likely progress in three stages.

  • First: Overload of the Ukrainian air defense system (already on).
  • Second: Plunging Ukraine into the Dark Ages (already in progress).
  • Third: Destruction of all major military installations (the next wave).

Ukraine is about to embrace nearly total darkness in the next few days. Politically, that opens a completely new ball game. Considering Moscow’s trademark “strategic ambiguity,” this could be a sort of Desert Storm remixed (massive air strikes preparing a ground offensive); or, more likely, an ‘incentive’ to force NATO to negotiate; or just a relentless, systematic missile offensive mixed with Electronic Warfare (EW) to shatter for good Kiev’s capacity to wage war.

Or it could be all of the above.

How a humiliated western Empire can possibly raise the stakes now, short of going nuclear, remains a key question. Moscow has shown admirable restraint for too long. No one should ever forget that in the real Great Game – how to coordinate the emergence of the multipolar world – Ukraine is just a mere sideshow. But now the sideshow runners better run for cover, because General Armageddon is on the loose.

END

This is a killer for Europe: high LNG prices. Now LNG shipping rates are rising on top of running out of storage capacity

(Jung/EpochTimes)

Europe Facing Record High LNG Shipping Rates, Running Out Of Storage Capacity

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

A lack of ships is the latest challenge for buyers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) this winter, as Europe prepares for a season without Russian energy supplies and shipping rates are hitting records highs, according to a Bloomberg report.

European countries are actually paying to keep LNG-loaded ships nearby as onshore storage facilities are maxed out. The scramble to charter fleets of ships to carry LNG has sparked fears that many buyers will not have enough ships capable of transporting the fuel from exporters.

Demand for LNG in Europe surged by 65 percent for the first eight months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its third quarter Gas Market Report released on Oct. 3.

LNG shipments are now being sought from suppliers like the United States, Nigeria, and Qatar.

Europe Competes for LNG Shipments

In June, the EU imported more gas from the United States than from Russia for the first time in its history, after Moscow reduced its exports to Europe following sanctions, according to OilPrice.com.

As much as 70 percent of all U.S. natural gas exports were sent to Europe in September, up from 63 percent in August, according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, nations in Northeast Asia and South America are also beginning to charter LNG-bearing ships in preparation for the winter, adding additional pressure.

States in New England, which are dependent on LNG imports for the winter to supplement energy supplies, are being forced to compete against European buyers, Seeking Alpha reported.

The cost to charter an LNG-carrying ship in the Atlantic Ocean rose to $397,500 per day on Oct. 11Bloomberg reported.

The new record for Atlantic LNG freight rates topped the previous record of $374,000 per day set on Oct. 3.

This is an increase of over $306,500 per day, or 337 percent, compared to the 2021 shipping rate of $91,000 per day, and a 500 percent increase since the beginning of 2022, according to Spark Commodities.

The LNG shipping price assessor said this broke last year’s all-time record high from the Pacific Ocean during the height of the supply chain crisis.

Rates are expected to rise as traders and utilities proceed to hoard more natural gas, which is presenting a hurdle to buyers this winter.

A Global Shipping Shortage

The race to buy LNG—and charter vessels to carry it—could create the next big shortage in the energy market, say analysts and traders.

LNG exporters in Asia are now selling gas directly from their ports rather than offering to ship the fuel, due to the shipping shortage.

Buyers who lack LNG transport are being forced to pay extremely high rates to ferry the fuel, or in certain cases are failing to find any ships at all.

There are few vessels left to charter through the rest of the year, and those that are still available are charging astronomical rates, according to LNG traders.

“Once you have full utilization, there’s nothing that prevents rates to go to any level, other than if freight becomes so much of the total that it kills it,” said Hafnia Tankers CEO Mikael Skov at the Capital Link New York Maritime Forum, according to American Shipper.

“There’s really no cap until the freight becomes really, really high.”

Traders report that energy majors, which typically lease their vessels to other buyers, are reluctant to do so this quarter, as they fear being caught without ships as winter gets closer.

The demand for ships globally will be driving freight rates higher, and traders say rates still have more room to climb.

END

GERMANY

Figures, the left is now calling for the ban on ultra right AfD

(Cody Remix)

The Left Calls For A Ban On Germany’s AfD Party Just As The Party Surges In Popularity

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

Despite Germany’s claims of democracy, politicians are calling to ban the AfD party…

Members of the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Left party (Die Linke) are calling for a ban on the conservative Alternative for Germany (AfD) party just as it surges in the polls, raising fears that Germany, which prides itself on being democratic, will attempt to completely ban one of the largest parties in the country.

Dorothea Marx (SPD), a member of the Thuringian state parliament, is one of the politicians calling for the AfD party to be banned.

“The time is ripe,” Marx told the dpa news agency. Above all, she said, the Thuringian state assembly must act quickly.

She said that although numerous state branches of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution were monitoring the party, it was only logical for the state to take further measures and exclude it from party funding.

“The next logical thing then is a ban procedure,” the SPD politician stressed. According to Marx, it would also be possible to ban individual state associations.

“AfD’s hatred and agitation must no longer be equated with democratic freedom of expression.”

As Remix News has previously reported, AfD is currently facing extreme surveillance and monitoring, which interferes with the party’s ability to operate. The powerful Office for the Protection of the Constitution domestic intelligence agency has deemed AfD a “suspected threat” to democracy, which enables agents to read emails and listen to phone calls of members without a warrant. It would be the equivalent of the FBI in the United States deeming the Republican Party a “suspected threat” to the constitution and having the power to surveil any party member merely on the basis that they belong to the party.

AfD’s leadership has long warned that the country’s left-liberal ruling bloc would move to ban the party entirely. Given AfD’s surging popularity, with the party rising to 16 percent in the polls, its highest level ever, many of these rival parties would like to see the opposition party removed entirely from the democratic system.

SPD”s Marx received support from Thuringia’s Left party politician Katharina König-Preuss, who is known for her connections to Antifa.

“A ban can help deprive AfD of state funding,” said the state parliament member.

“A ban can also help to disarm AfD members more quickly. We know of demonstrably around 50 AfD actors armed with live firearms in the state.” The party, she said, is no less “fighting against human dignity, the principle of democracy, and the rule of law than NPD.”

The idea that banning a party to save democracy is widespread in Germany’s left-wing circles; however, AfD has argued that nobody in the party has ever advocated anti-democratic principles. In fact, there is evidence the party wants to strengthen it by introducing Swiss-style citizen referendums, which would allow citizens to vote on specific issues, which is currently only allowed in some states such as Berlin.

As Germany’s entire political leadership has moved to slap sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine, AfD has pushed for Germany to reopen the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and repair any damage. Germany’s industrial sector is highly reliant on cheap Russian energy, and surging inflation is threatening political unrest. As a result, politicians may be seeking to head off the party before it grows in popularity, as the economic crisis is only expected to worsen.

Can AfD be banned?

The far-left is not the only political force seeking to ban AfD, with the center-left Christian Democratic Union (CDU) also calling for a ban on the party in the past. However, despite many of these parties looking to eliminate their rival, there is only one institution, the Federal Constitutional Court, that can truly ban the party.

In the past, only the Socialist Reich Party (1952) and the Communist Party of Germany (KPD, 1956) were banned. Corresponding proceedings against the ultra-nationalist NPD failed after Germany’s highest court was unable to clarify in the first attempt how great the influence of informers from the Office for the Protection of the Constitution was. In the second attempt, the Karlsruhe body ruled that although NPD wanted to abolish the free democratic state order, it was ultimately too insignificant.

AfD has never promoted any of the ultra-nationalist policies of NPD, but given its recent success, the party is certainly not insignificant.

end

END

RUSSIA/EUROPE/GAZPROM 

Gazprom CEO warns the EU that whole towns could freeze this winter.

(zerohedge)

Gazprom CEO Warns EU: “Whole Towns Could Freeze” This Winter

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Even though Europe’s natural gas storage for this winter is nearly full, the head of Russian energy Gazprom PJSC still warned European households could freeze in the event of a cold snap, according to Bloomberg

“Winter can be relatively warm, but one week or even five days will be abnormally cold, and it’s possible that whole towns and lands, god forbid, will freeze,” Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said at Russian Energy Week in Moscow. 

Miller said during peak winter demand days, Europe could experience a gap of 800 million cubic meters of NatGas per day, or about one-third of its total consumption. The figures were from a report by unidentified analysts. 

Natgas to Europe is stable so far this week, albeit at reduced levels over the past year. Shipments via Ukraine are one of the last remaining Russian supply lines to western Europe after the bombing of Nord Stream pipelines. Even though NatGas shipments have dwindled and pushed many European economies to the brink of recession, inventories across the continent are nearly full at 91%. 

The good news is EU storage is above a 10-year average of 71% for this time of year. 

Dutch front-month gas futures, a European benchmark, has been nearly halved since late August on relief from inventories and hopes of a warmer winter. 

But new data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) outlines that a high-pressure system over western Europe could bring colder weather, less wind, and less rainfall. Less wind would reduce the generation of renewable power.  

Gazprom’s CEO said EU NatGas inventories could be drained to 5% full in March… 

“Sure, Europe will survive, but what will happen by the time of gas injection” into storage before winter of 2023 and 2024.

“It will be clear then that energy crisis has come not for a short period of time.”

It appears Europe’s energy crisis is far from over… The UK is already warning about its inability to import enough NatGas this winter, threatening to unleash power blackouts across its grid. 

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Russia Foils Attack On Turkstream Pipeline, Saboteurs Arrested

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 10:44 AM

The Interfax news agency cited a report from the Kremlin about a “foiled attack” on a major natural gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey called the TurkStream, according to Reuters.

The Kremlin said several people were arrested Thursday during an attempt to sabotage the pipeline that links Russia to Turkey and Southern Europe. The pipeline has a capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters per year and was launched in early 2020. 

“Certain forces … have already made an attempt on TurkStream. The saboteurs have been caught, and several people have been arrested. They wanted to blow it up. On our territory, on soil, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. 

Peskov’s comments come as Russia plans to transform Turkey into a central hub for Russian NatGas, then re-exporting it through Europe. The spokesman commented about the incident on the sidelines of an international summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. 

On Monday, President Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine was attempting to attack a section of the TurkStream pipeline. This followed the bombing of a bridge linking Russia to the annexed Crimean peninsula last weekend. Putin blamed Ukraine’s intelligence services for the attack. 

“It is obvious that the Ukrainian secret services ordered, organized and carried out the terrorist attack aimed at destroying Russia’s critical civilian infrastructure,” Putin said of the Kerch Bridge bombing.

Attacks on critical infrastructure in the European region have increased in recent weeks as it appears these could be spillovers from the war in Ukraine.

Following the sabotage of the Nord Stream, TurkStream remains the only conduit for Russian NatGas to Europe besides the pipelines that pass through Ukraine.

END

The Thin Red Line: NATO Can’t Afford to Lose Kabul and Kiev — Strategic Culture

Robert Hryniak

I have long cautioned not all is as it seems, no matter the cheerleaders or fan boys of war; war is only a resolution outcome of policy and political failure.
So yes there is a march to war because there is no one to negotiate with who accepts the reality of multipolar world. One that was allowed and spawned by inept politicians and a thieving culture that plundered while destroying good will and trust leaving only room for gunboat diplomacy.
Failure to negotiate by the West will only result in a greater loss tomorrow leaving the West to face history books. Failure to restore trust and good will by eliminating thievery will result is cold shoulders, no matter whose wealth is discussed. When you cannot count on balance sheet transfers to reach designated parties, the Referee is a crook. Look at them games with the metals markets which look to implode one day soon. And failure to reinvent manufacturing leadership and production of desired products will fail to ignite trade or we even required trade settlement leading to a economic decline.
Is there a new writer available for the teleprompter?

https://strategic-culture.org/news/2022/10/12/the-thin-red-line-nato-cant-afford-to-lose-kabul-and-kiev/

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Alberta’s new Premier says that the unvaxxed are the most discriminated group on the planet.

(EpochTimes)

Alberta’s New Premier Says Unvaxx’d Are The “Most Discriminated-Against Group” She Has Seen

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 09:25 PM

Via The Epoch Times,

Alberta’s new premier Danielle Smith says those who chose not to get a COVID-19 vaccine are the “most discriminated-against group” she has seen in her lifetime.

“The community that faced the most restrictions on their freedoms in the last year were those who made a choice not to be vaccinated,” Smith said at her first press conference as premier on Oct. 11.

“I don’t think I’ve ever experienced a situation in my lifetime where a person was fired from their job, or not allowed to watch their kids play hockey, or not allowed to go visit a loved one in long-term care or hospital, or not allowed to go get on a plane to either go across the country to see family or even travel across the border.

They have been the most-discriminated group that I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime.”Alberta Premier Danielle Smith holds her first press conference in Edmonton on Oct. 11, 2022. (The Canadian Press/Jason Franson)

Smith made the remarks shortly after being sworn in as premier in Edmonton.

During the leadership race, Smith had promised to bring fundamental changes to Alberta Health Services and to strengthen laws to avoid “discrimination” based on medical decisions.

“This has been an extraordinary time in the last year in particular, and I want people to know that I find that unacceptable,” she said told reporters. “We are not going to create a segregated society on the basis of a medical choice.”

Similar to other provinces, Alberta brought in a vaccine passport system during the pandemic, and closed down businesses and places of worship.Chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw provides a COVID-19 update in Edmonton, on Sept. 3, 2021. (The Canadian Press/Jason Franson)

Smith also said she won’t be seeking advice from Chief Medical Health Officer Dr. Deena Hinshaw, and will instead form a new team of public health advisers.

When asked for further details including whether she is firing Hinshaw, a spokesperson for the premier said details haven’t been determined yet, repeating that Smith will be seeking to form a new team of public health advisers.

Rachel Emmanuel contributed to this report. 

end

Lancet Commission:

Lancet Commission Report: 6 Reasons COVID Response “A Massive Global Failure”

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 09:55 AM

Authored by Dr. Yuhong Dong and Health 1+1 via The Epoch Times,

The Lancet COVID-19 Commission published an article on Sept. 14, 2022 about the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. As of May 31, 2022, 6.9 million deaths from COVID-19 were reported, but the estimated excess death toll is 17.2 million, based on data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The report states that “this staggering death toll is both a profound tragedy and a massive global failure at multiple levels.”

The Commission identified six major areas of failures, namely failures of prevention, failures of rationality, failures of transparency, failures to follow normal public health practice, failures of operational cooperation, and failures of international solidarity.

Due to these failures, social sustainability goals were set back a few years and 17.2 million lives were lost.

What can we learn from these failures? I’d like to share my thoughts based on the six failure reasons raised by Lancet.

First Lesson Learned: Failure of Prevention

Many countries adopted aggressive methods to stop the spread of the virus, such as social distancing, lockdowns, vaccines, etc. But none of the methods hit the nail in the head, so to speak.

A SARS-CoV-2 human challenge experiment was done among young adults by researchers in the UK. Their paper was published in the March 2022 issue of Nature.

The study involved 36 healthy volunteers aged 18–29 without history of SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. They were inoculated with the SARS-CoV-2 virus intranasally. During the experiment, two were excluded from the Per-Protocol analysis because baseline antibodies were detected. The results of 34 subjects were: 16 participants were infected (confirmed with PCR tests) with mild symptoms, 3 were infected (confirmed with PCR tests) but were asymptomatic, and 15 participants remained uninfected.

The reason why the 15 participants were not infected should be the key to prevention. In my view, this key is to strengthen people’s immune systems.

Humans have an intricate immune system, a comprehensive defense network against external invading substances. The first line of defense is the physical barriers such as skin, nose hair, tears, etc. They can block most pathogens from entering the body.

The second line of defense is the epithelial interferon barrier. When a virus enters an epithelial cell, the cell automatically activates its antiviral mechanism and produces interferon. Interferon is a natural enemy of viruses and sends instructions to coordinate cells to fight the virus and prevent it from replicating.

Even if the virus enters the blood, there are the innate and adaptive immune cells to protect us. These include the macrophages, dendritic cells, and natural killer cells in the blood, all of which play an important role in antiviral immunity.

No matter what type of disease we are facing, it is important to know that the pathogens are external factors, and it is the human body itself that determines whether we fall ill or not. After we identify and correct the problems in our immune system, those external factors won’t matter much.

Therefore, strengthening our innate immune functions is the key to prevent pandemic spread.

Second Lesson Learned: Failure of Rationality

Rationality refers to the ability to make decisions based on facts. In the process of vaccine development, irrationalities included blindly pushing the vaccine among the masses without a complete evaluation of its efficacy and safety.

There are many limitations with the vaccines.

  1. Inability to prevent infection: Neutralizing antibodies are mainly produced in the human bloodstream, but not in the epithelial cells. Therefore, if the first two lines of defense were weakened, the virus could still enter the blood and cause infection. That is why the vaccine and antibody strategy is unable to prevent infection.
  2. Needs to be renewed: Vaccines need to be renewed along with the virus variation, and the current vaccine is designed based on the genetic code of the old strain in 2020.
  3. Needs time to develop: On average, it takes five to 10 years to develop a vaccine. It requires a significant amount of animal trials and human trials to ensure the vaccine’s safety and prove its efficacy. Viruses mutate quickly. The speed of vaccine development can never match that of the viral mutation. If the vaccine is injected frequently for different variants of the virus, it will generate the antibody-dependent enhancement effect (ADE effect), which makes the vaccine ineffective.
  4. Inferior to our natural immunity: Numerous studies have shown that the immunity produced by the human body against viruses after natural infection is much longer lasting and stronger than the antibodies produced by simply stimulating T cells with vaccines.

Additionally, a growing body of basic research has found that the spike protein on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is a component of the vaccine, not only binds to cell surface receptors, but also causes cardiac cell damage, vascular damage, mitochondrial damage, and induces chronic inflammatory states. It is a toxic protein.

Under these circumstances, it is irrational and potentially damaging to use spike protein to stimulate the body.

Moreover, the rocket-like speed of vaccine development and uncertainty of vaccine safety issues has brought stress and tension among people, which can cause excessive release of stress hormones and reduce the human body’s immune resistance to the virus further.

It is good to be proactive, but we should follow the nature of the epidemic, and treat people as fellow humans rather than “living beings.” With a pandemic response, we should first ensure that people eat, drink, and rest well, and are emotionally stable. We shouldn’t over-medicate and over-react.

The Third Lesson Learned: Failure of Transparency

The September 2021 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine published a study of Pfizer’s BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine over six months. There was one case of cardiac arrest in the placebo group, but 4 cases in those who received the vaccine. But this data was not transparently discussed in the main article, but in the supplementary appendix.

Although the numbers are too small to be statistically significant, from a pharmacovigilance perspective, this is an unusual safety signal and due diligence should be further made.

As of Sept. 23, 2022, the VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports database has recorded 1,424,789 cases of adverse events with 31,214 deaths, most of which occurred within one to seven days of vaccination. The unusual short time to death strongly indicates the causal role of vaccines in those death cases.

A Nordic study published in April 2022 showed that the mRNA vaccine was associated with an increased risk of myocarditis, with the highest risk in young men aged 16 to 24. The number of myocarditis episodes increased 4 to 7 cases per 100,000 young men within 28 days of the second Pfizer vaccination and increased 9 to 28 cases per 100,000 young men within 28 days of the second Modena vaccination.

A study published in the July 2022 issue of JAMA Internal Medicine reported that the leading cause of death in the United States during the pandemic period of March 2020 to October 2021 was heart disease.

A report published in April 2022 in Nature found a 25 percent increase in cardiac arrest and acute coronary syndrome among young people aged 16 to 39. This phenomenon is closely related to the mRNA vaccines but not the COVID-19 infection.

Renowned British cardiologist Dr. Aseem Malhotra, who used to support the mRNA vaccine, published two articles in the Journal of Insulin Resistance calling for a halt on mRNA vaccine. What changed his mind?

As a supporter of the mRNA vaccine, Dr. Malhotra volunteered at vaccine centers and was one of the first people to receive two doses of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. He also advised his patients and those around him to get the shot.

His father, Dr. Kailand Chand, former Vice President of the British Medical Association (BMA) and a general practitioner, suffered a cardiac arrest at home on July 26, 2021, six months after he received two doses of Pfizer mRNA vaccine.

The autopsy revealed that two of his father’s three major coronary arteries were severely obstructed, with the left anterior descending branch 90 percent obstructed and the right coronary artery 75 percent obstructed.

His father led an active lifestyle and was healthier than most men of his age. Even during the pandemic lockdown, he meditated regularly and walked an average of 10,000 to 15,000 steps a day.

Malhotra suspected that his father’s death was related to the vaccination and subsequently discovered the problem with the vaccine. He called for an end to the vaccination, but it was already too late.

The Truth About ‘95% Effectiveness’: 95 out of 100 Protected?

In terms of the vaccine’s effectiveness, news reports around the world claim that the vaccine is “95 percent effective.” Most doctors explain to the public that “if 100 people are vaccinated, then 95 will be protected from infection.”

But that is not the case at all.

According to the paper published on Dec. 10, 2020 in the New England Journal of Medicine studied the safety and efficacy of Pfizer’s BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine. Of the 18,325 unvaccinated people, there were 162 symptomatic infections. The infection rate was 0.88 percent. Among the 18,198 vaccinated people, there were 8 infections. The infection rate was 0.04 percent. Then it concluded that “the vaccine was 95% effective in preventing Covid-19.”

However, most people overlooked the fact that 99.12 percent of the population was not infected despite being unvaccinated.

For the total population, the vaccine actually protects only 0.84 percent of the population, which is the real absolute protection rate.

So the real “absolute protection” is out of 10000 people vaccinated, only 84 people (0.84%) will be protected, but not the 95 out of 100 people will be protected, which is a relative protection.

Had we known the facts of absolute protection, would we have worried about creating a vaccine so much? We would not have such high hopes that a vaccine would resolve the pandemic. The vaccine mandate would not be so solid at the beginning.

Instead, we would be more rational to seek natural ways to boost immunities so as to prevent the virus in a more feasible and easy way.

Read more here…

Vaccine//Covid issues:

GLOBAL ISSUES

end

PAUL ALEXANDER…

BREAKING: PAXLOVID, “Pfizer’s Covid drug Paxlovid, which was used to treat Biden, can cause deadly blood clots, study warns”; Medicine to treat heart conditions are unsafe when taken with Paxlovid

Coronary heart disease drugs prescribed means higher risk of blood clots & alongside immunosuppressants it can cause plasma to rise to toxic level; Paxlovid can interact dangerously with common drugs

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 13
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

SOURCE:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11307139/PAxlovid-Pfizers-Covid-drug-cause-deadly-blood-clots-study-warns.html

end

‘Tulsi Gabbard says she is leaving the Democratic Party’: its about time, always liked her but she can go off too, so we need to be cautious & see how this unfolds but GREAT, glad she quit plantation

Let us see what she brings & helps is all but I like her, I think smart, passionate & loves America, she is IMO a decent liberal democrat & lover of flag and military; sensible, but we be weary UNTIL

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 13
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

SIURCE:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tulsi-gabbard-leaving-democratic-party-woke-warmongers-video-134355523.html

end

Open in browser

Horowitz: The failure of the mRNA shots is on display for all with open eyes; imagine this, Africa is and will win this vaccine insanity given its low vaccine uptake

Excellent piece by Horowitz

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 13
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

SOURCE:

https://www.conservativereview.com/horowitz-the-failure-of-the-mrna-shots-is-on-display-for-all-with-open-eyes-2657143188.html

end

Open in browserURGENT: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will not release its review of post-COVID-19-vaccination heart inflammation; Zachary Stieber reports & we ask ‘why’?The stubborn refusal of officials heading up federal health agencies responsible for protecting the public health to come clean is stunningDr. Paul AlexanderOct 12 ▷  LISTENSAVE SOURCE:EXCLUSIVE: CDC Won’t Release Review of Post-Vaccination Heart Inflammation‘Refusing to release the data raises concerns about transparency, according to Barbara Loe Fisher, co-founder and president of the National Vaccine Information Center.“The stubborn refusal of officials heading up federal health agencies responsible for protecting the public health to come clean with Americans about what they know about COVID vaccine risks is stunning,” Fisher told The Epoch Times in an email.Fisher noted that the CDC has funded electronic medical record systems that collect personal health information and that the agency shares the data with a number of third parties, such as contractors and researchers.“Yet, CDC officials are claiming they cannot release de-identified abstraction information curated from the medical records of individuals, who have suffered myocarditis or died after COVID shots? This looks and feels like a coverup of the true risks of COVID vaccines,” Fisher said.Fisher called for a congressional probe into what she described as “the disturbing lack of transparency on the part of federal agency officials, who granted COVID vaccine manufacturers an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to widely distribute the vaccines in December 2020 and have recommended and aggressively promoted the vaccines for mandated use ever since.”end

Excess mortality rate across European nations is hugely elevated, & you see the European nations with highest vaccination rates have the highest mortality rate! Why is CDC & FDA & NIH avoiding this?

Why are the health agencies not studying the all-cause excess deaths? Why? Post COVID gene injection. Why? Where there is excess death, there has been elevated COVID gene injection.

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 12end

AGAIN, Scandalous & outrageous! That Bourla & Pfizer did not know that COVID vaccine could stop transmission & DID NOT test that? This was all lies; they said will stop transmission; Dr. John Campbellbut they did not know it would and as we have seen, it DOES not! we were cancelled when we said it, yet now it is told to us we were correct! Pfizer, Moderna, CDC, NIH, FDA all LIED! criminals IMODr. Paul AlexanderOct 12 ▷  LISTENSAVE They, governments, shut down societies and closed off lives, destroyed people and business, people killed themselves. Nothing these beasts say was and is true and hundreds of millions took the vaccine based on a pure lie! The mandates then was a lie, the vaccine passport was a lie, all of it!Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicinePfizer executive NOW says that they knew it could not stop transmission & they never tested it; WHAT? it shows what we always knew, it was all a lie day one, thus no need ever for VAX mandatesIt was all a lie about take the vax to protect others for they knew it could not do that. This was about vaccine passports and malfeasance…Read more16 hours ago · 103 likes · 48 comments · Dr. Paul AlexanderEven Dr. John Campbell is angry and stunned:

VACCINE IMPACT/

“Long COVID” is the Term Now Used to Cover Up COVID Vaccine Injuries as Health Insurance Companies Face Financial Collapse

October 12, 2022 2:04 pm

Last month (September, 2022) we reported how Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS) is the new term apparently being used to cover up deaths due to the COVID-19 vaccines, and that in many places around the world it is now the #1 cause of death. But what about those who suffer injuries and disabilities following COVID-19 vaccines, but do not die? Health statistics clearly show that there has been a significant increase in disabilities which has resulted in many people no longer being able to work, and Edward Dowd has been a leader in the U.S. publishing health and life insurance statistics that bear this out. The CDC had to deal with these health statistics, and they have apparently chosen to use the term “Long COVID” to explain data that they published this week showing that this affects 24 million adults in the U.S., including between 2 million and 4 million—or about 2% of the workforce—who are not working because of it. There are currently no diagnostic tests that can identify “Long COVID,” which of course presents major problems for the Health Insurance industry, as well as applying for Social Security disability benefits. Similar to how “SADS” is killing young, formerly healthy people, the CDC data shows similar results for Long COVID for younger age groups: “14.9% of people 18 to 29 years old have experienced long COVID, and 16% of those 30 to 39 years old have had it.” Since there are no diagnostic tests to identify Long COVID, how is the CDC identifying it? By symptoms. There is a long list which was published in a Fierce Healthcare article this week, and all of these symptoms can be found in abundance in the U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) following COVID-19 vaccines. So is the CDC considering COVID-19 vaccines as a possible cause of “Long COVID”? From the Fierce Healthcare article: “Kavanagh has long been a proponent of the necessity for vaccines, but the CDC data doesn’t have a vaccination status category. Vaccination status became something of a lightning rod during COVID-19 surges, with those who followed the CDC guidelines noting that they often had to pay (in a sense) for the emergency care and/or hospitalizations of those that hadn’t. Being vaccinated helps guard against getting long COVID, according to the CDC.” Let that sink in America. The CDC wants the public to believe that “being vaccinated helps guard against getting long COVID.” And when hospitalizations were increasing in 2021 when the vaccines were being rolled out, with about 80% of the American public taking at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine according to the CDC, it was the unvaccinated who were being blamed for increased hospitalization rates. If both of these statements were actually true, would it not be in the best interest of the CDC to track COVID-19 vaccination status?? They certainly have the data to do so. So why are they not tracking COVID-19 vaccination status and publishing the data?

Read More…


Attack on America’s Children Continues as FDA Authorizes Deadly New COVID Boosters for Children as Young as 5 Years Old

October 12, 2022 4:43 pm

Like a nightmare that never ends, the criminal FDA continued its acts of genocide by authorizing the deadly new Bivalent COVID vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer for children as young as 5 years old today. The Bivalent COVID vaccines were first authorized for adults just 6 weeks ago on August 30th, and according to the Government’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), 2,168 cases have already been filed including 19 deaths, 27 permanent disabilities, 184 visits to the ER, 73 hospitalizations, and 26 other life threatening events.

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY

end 

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

A must read.

Top Bank Strategist; It Is No Longer Science-Fiction To Say We Need A Systemic Reset

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 12:27 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Today I combine the BOE, KISS, and Star Trek because: 1) we have so much inflation it takes two analogies to do the job of one; 2) it sums up the level of dignity the British central bank now holds; and 3) the cross-over sums up the confusion central banks and governments all face.

Oh, here’s a little song for everybody out there

The BOE try to take my returns away; But I don’t hear the rap that Bailey says

They try to tell us don’t go LDI long; That’s alright, we’re trillions strong

This is my market, it makes me proud; These are my traders, and this is my crowd

These are crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy nights; These are crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy nights

Sometimes days are so hard to survive, oh yeah; A million ways to bury LDI trades alive

Hey, the BOE slams down like a bad, bad dream; You’re levered up so tight, and can’t let off steam

They say they can break you again and again; But let my leverage ratio turn up to ten!

These are crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy nights; These are crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy nights

Oh, these are crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy nights; Come on, these are crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy nights

And they try to tell us LDI trades don’t belong; But that’s alright, we’re trillions strong

These are my returns, there are my crowd; We’ll increase vol volume, we love it LOUD

Yeah, BOE, nobody’s gonna change me; ‘Cos that’s who I am

These are crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy nights, oh yeah; These are crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy nights, etc.

Yet the KISS album I am thinking of is ‘Destroyer’ – either of the BOE’s reputation, if they break their “no QE after Friday” pledge, or of markets if they stick to it: “Beth, what can I do?” Nobody knows, as rumours and counter-rumours fly. The BOE is deemed to have sent a hospital pass to the government, telling them to change fiscal direction, but UK Chancellor Kwarteng just stated it will be the BOE to blame if markets tank as a result of them stepping back. Crazy, crazy nights.

Now to Star Trek: it is no longer science-fiction to say we need a systemic reset. In fact the BOE proves it. Nothing we have been doing for years works now we need to raise rates to deal with inflation –US PPI coming in hot again yesterday, CPI out today– due to the debt and leverage built up by not having inflation, not raising rates, and doing too much QE. Some argue central banks are hiking in error now: but when would they not be ‘hiking in error’ given those problems? Worse, QE was not an “asset swap” because the trillions created to “swap” for assets, pushing them up and making the rich richer, and pushing everyone down the risk curve, cannot be easily reversed by QT, as we now see.

Central banks can’t do what they want to do (rate hikes + QT) because of financial stability and political-science historical fact: a purist Austrian route into a downturn risks ending us up on one of the planets run by ‘space Nazis’ using leftover WW2 props from the movie studio next door.

Central banks can’t go back to what markets want them to do (rate cuts + QE) because EM economies, who we outsourced our industry to, and commodity producers, who we rely on given our failed energy policies, won’t accept QE fiat money for real goods and materials again at face value. If we go for that trick again we will end up with much weaker currencies –as JPY hits a new 24-year low of 146.8– much higher commodity prices, and much more strained supply chains. We would likely need rationing and price controls to match. Star Trek may be a moneyless economy where they print things from ‘replicators’, but the West is not. (The new ‘Star Trek’ series’ replicators now make useful things from human waste: an ironic scatological inversion in that the show’s producers have made what many old Star Trek fans see as human waste from useful things.)

In this Tholian web: the BOE is sticking to its guns – or is it? Everything is as clear as Harry Mudd, as the Telegraph claims “Truss is being blamed for the collapse of the debt-fuelled Jenga society that she was trying to replace” (with a larger debt-fuelled game of Jenga); the ECB’s Lagarde underlines the ECB has started, and will continue talks on reversing QE – as the Eurozone waits to be the next UK; and the Fed minutes say, “Many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action” – as we also have the edifying sight of the following two Tweets:

October 11: “US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I’M NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN MARKETS THAT CAUSES ME TO BE CONCERNED”

October 12: “US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I’M CONCERNED ABOUT THE LOSS OF ADEQUATE LIQUIDITY IN TREASURIES”

So, Beth/Spock/Janet, what can we do? ‘Set phasers to LOUD’ is not going to help.

Central banks can’t yet do what *I* argue they will eventually have to (rate hikes + MMT) because of political-science fictions: “Nobody told us we were allowed to do that,” as a UK Labour MP said after the country went off gold in 1931 after suffering depression in the 1920s, then immediately reflating again. However, MMT won’t deal with the financial stability aspect of the current crisis. That requires a hypothetical policy even more radical: one markets would take as a Star Trek mirror universe where central bankers have ‘evil beards’, or a surreal one where Paul Stanley is Captain Kirk and Gene Simmons is Mr. Spock.

Central banks could hike rates *and* use MMT to boost productive state investment *and* use QE to forcibly unwind market positions alongside a resolution of failing funds/firms the way we used to before 2008, 1998, or 1987. That is to say, to resolve our current crisis the way 2008 should have been – and then follow up with much stricter regulations on leverage and financialisation: “Nobody told us we were allowed to do that.” How about lifeboats without bailouts; making small pension holders good on their sliver of assets –with minimal up-front inflation effects given nobody was going to access that money soon– but the rich holding the lion’s share get nothing? Maybe we will see this policy realised in the 24th century.

Yes, that idea means more state intervention now, but it also means more of a real market and real economy later. Yes, if a central bank operates on a financialised economy it risks doing huge damage to it, but: 1) that’s the point; and 2) Dr. McCoy needed to operate on dying aliens with different anatomies, not knowing what to snip out and what to keep – and we have anatomy files.

Bear Sterns doesn’t exist today, and life goes on; Lehman doesn’t exist either, and we are still here. Is the counter-argument that we would all be better off if absolutely everyone in finance had been bailed out in 2008, rather than just almost everyone? That is science-fiction given the pre-2008 and post-2008 systems both fail to allocate productive capital into the real economy, blow leveraged bubbles, and create inequality – and the latter even cheer-leads NFTs traded by those who want the whole financial system to collapse. If we do end up going back to QE, NFTs of Paul Stanley as Kirk might be ‘money’ soon: just hope someone in an EM will give you some dilithium crystals for it.

Meanwhile, if it is QT then we are all heading for trouble at crazy, crazy warp speed.

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

END

The following is a must read:  The USA’s new NOPEC bill will not bring oil prices down but instead will cause it to rise.

The bill will no doubt cause Saudi Arabia and UAE to pivot towards China.  Then oil prices from these two nations will be priced in yuan breaking the Petro dollar

(James Duros/OilPrice.com)

NOPEC Bill Won’t Bring Oil Prices Down

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Authored by James Durso via OilPrice.com,

  • Washington responded angrily to OPEC+’s decision to cut output.
  • U.S. legislators have suggested the introduction of a bill called NOPEC in order to reduce OPEC’s power.
  • NOPEC could send oil prices higher and end the dominance of the petrodollar.

“Nobody f*cks with a Biden,” said the U.S. president, and the oil ministers of the member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) replied, “Hold my beer.”  OPEC+ then proceeded to approve production cuts of 2 million barrels per day, despite a full court press by the administration in the weeks leading up to the decision, and raised the price of oil for the U.S., lowered it for Europe, and left it unchanged for Asia. According to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, “the President is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas” and “the Biden Administration will also consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC+’s control over energy prices,” neglecting to mention that Biden administration decisions to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline and to stop issuing new oil and gas leases on public lands gave OPEC+ the upper hand. 

Apparently, a fist bump only gets you so far. 

There followed a lot of “how dare they!” by the great and good, but OPEC+ was having none of it. The day before the announcement, the Saudi energy minister dressed down a Reuters reporter for shoddy work by his colleague who claimed that Russia and Saudi Arabia (the Kingdom) conspired to price oil at $100 per barrel, and later explained OPEC+ was being proactive as the West is attacking inflation with higher interest rates which, in turn, may cause a recession and drive down oil demand (and price). Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive officer, explained that the leading cause of today’s energy crisis is years of underinvestment in oil and gas production and that the situation will be worse when the global economy rebounds from the current slowdown. 

The OPEC+ decision was no doubt based on market fundamentals but part was likely fallout from Biden calling Saudi Arabia and its crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), a “pariah” for the killing of activist and Muslim Brotherhood sympathizer Jamal Khashoggi. It probably sounded great on the campaign trail but there is no avoiding the crown prince in America’s dealings with the Kingdom. OPEC+ was said to have “sided with the Russians” – perfect fodder for cable news shows – but it was just looking after its own interest. Also overlooked was the fact that the Saudis worked hard to get Russia, a major oil producer, into OPEC+ to ensure its moves would be in harmony with the organization – which it finally did in 2016 – and to ensure U.S. firms did not dominate the oil market – a pretty reasonable move, actually, for an economic competitor. 

American critics demanded the U.S. cancel maintenance contracts for U.S.-supplied military equipment and, days later, three Democrat congressmen introduced a bill to remove U.S. troops and air defense systems from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Kingdom, and two other Democrat legislators introduced a bill that would halt all arms sales to Riyadh.  Congress may resurrect the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act (NOPEC), which would remove the sovereign immunity for OPEC+ as a group and for its individual member states in U.S. courts, leaving them open to prosecution under U.S. anti-trust legislation, or referral for investigation by the World Trade Organization. 

Of course, NOPEC could also send oil prices higher and end the dominance of the petrodollar, especially if Saudi Arabia prices oil sales to China, its biggest customer, in Yuan, and de-pegs oil from the dollar.  

What the Biden administration and its confederates are not mentioning (and are hoping voters forget) is that American decisions put America in this spot.

In addition to cancelling Keystone XL and new oil and gas leases on federal lands, the administration raised the “social cost of carbon,” a measure that will make it harder for the feds to approve new oil and natural projects, and that influences the lending decisions of investors, such as Goldman Sachs, which had previously announced it would stop lending for new oil drilling in the Arctic. The goal for Biden’s environmentalist allies is to make the oil and gas sector “unbankable.”   

Of course, if the private sector stops lending for new hydrocarbon projects the only source of new money will be the national oil companies, in other words, OPEC+, which is not going to cooperate in its destruction.

Biden is facing unfavorable polls heading into the November mid-term elections and wants to keep the Democrat’s green allies onside while wooing voters with low price gasoline. In effect, he wants OPEC+ to pay for his cake-and-eat-it-too policy with foregone income, while he tilts to Iran by pursuing a new nuclear deal, causing the UAE and the Kingdom to seek a reliable, alternative partner, motivated by Washington’s casual abandonment of its two-decade, $2 trillion Afghanistan project.

Part of the OPEC+ disenchantment with Biden is his pursuit of a revived nuclear deal with Iran. Then-President Donald Trump rejected the Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA, and kicked off the “maximum pressure” campaign which gave the UAE and the Kingdom confidence in Washington and paved the way for the Abraham Accords between Arab and Muslim countries and Israel. However, the rulers are running ahead of public attitudes on engagement with Israel which gives MbS and his peers room to moderate relations with Israel in pursuit of a U.S. Middle East peace plan or in response to a U.S. attack on OPEC+.

Biden’s NIMBY approach to fossil fuels did not escape notice and former Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Turki Al-Faisal, described Biden as a “much diminished president” and observed,

“As an example, on energy issues, he came in with a policy to stop completely fossil fuel usage not only in the United States, but worldwide, and now he is finding himself having to rely on fossil fuels as a means of meeting the energy shortage that has come about, not only because of the Ukraine war, but also because of U.S. policy itself that shut down pipelines and stopped issuing … discovery of oil on U.S. soil.”

And many in OPEC+ countries think the U.S. needs OPEC+ and the Kingdom to stabilize oil prices. One observer, Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed, pointed out that Riyadh responded to U.S. calls for oil market assistance in 1979, 2014, and 2018, at considerable financial cost, and all it got in return was the Justice Against Sponsors of Terror Act, and NOPEC. In other words, “unequal treatment.”

In response to OPEC+’s market moves, the Biden administration has been making agreeable noises to Venezuela (an OPEC+ member, narcotics trafficker, and ally of Iran) all to avoid allowing some guys in Texas, who won’t vote for Joe Biden no matter what he does, to drill and frack. 

So, what now?

Biden will likely stand aside as the Congress pushes bills attacking OPEC+ and requiring U.S. troops and equipment leave the UAE and the kingdom. Then there’s the matter of the civil lawsuit against MbS for the killing of Khashoggi; the presiding judge has asked the administration to weigh in on whether or not MbS enjoys immunity. King Salman made MbS the country’s prime minister to confer on him “head of government” immunity ahead of the trial, but if Biden’s Justice Department pursues MbS or OPEC+ we may see the end of a relationship that had its ups and downs, but that contributed to the defeat of the Soviet forces in Afghanistan and started the  end of the Soviet Union.

If the U.S. decides to end the relationship, who might step into the breach?

China might.

China doesn’t have the soft power of the U.S., but Saudi Arabia is China’s top oil supplier, so it is smart for Beijing to secure relations with the key energy ally. Beijing has been expanding its footprint in the region’s energy sphere and has increased its investments in the UAE and the kingdom (and in Iran). It may not take much to make more inroads – more verbal threats by Washington, arrival of a few Chinese air defense batteries, a round of port calls by People’s Liberation Army Navy warships, and some oil contracts priced in Yuan – and the U.S. will be a reduced presence in the region. 

The U.S. has long been talking of a “pivot to Asia” but is still bogged down in Europe. But OPEC+ has pivoted to Asia as China has pivoted to the Persian Gulf and secured long-term agreements with IranSaudi Arabia, and the UAE (and Saudi Arabia is now building ballistic missiles with China’s help.) If the U.S. and Saudi Arabia decouple, we may be witnessing “a world poised between orders” as China assumes a growing role and a weakened, but natural resource-rich, Russia becomes its junior partner, regardless of the war in Ukraine.

And rather than fighting the U.S. in its fora of choice, such as the United Nations Security Council, China is promoting alternative fora, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) which has established the Shanghai-based New Development Bank, a multilateral lending institution that may complement the Beijing-founded Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

Iran, an OPEC+ member, is an acceding member of the SCO. Saudi Arabia is an SCO dialogue partner, and the UAE is an upcoming dialogue partner. In addition, Israel and Iraq have applied for dialogue partner status. And in September, Turkey, a NATO member declared its intent to join the SCO.  

And BRICS may expand its membership beyond the founding five members  as Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt have expressed an interest in joining. Russia has proposed a new reserve currency based on the BRICS currency basket to reduce reliance on the Euro and the U.S. Dollar and a  joint payment network to replace the U.S.-dominated SWIFT financial messaging system. 

Riyadh may be easing its way into BRICS, and making a buck besides, by buying discounted Russian crude oil to use in domestic power generation, allowing it to export its high-quality Arab Light grade that sells at a premium.

The Saudi and Emirati leaders are working to move their countries “beyond petroleum” as the BP commercial used to say, towards an economy not based on hydrocarbons, but the money to do it has to come from somewhere. That “somewhere” is the national oil companies, i.e., OPEC+, and every dollar publicly gifted to an unfriendly Washington is one less dollar for investment in the future of the country that even a king has to justify.

In the kingdom, 36-year-old MbS is popular with young people (18 to 24 year olds) who have high expectations, and are proud of their heritage, but want to live in a “normal country,” not like Iran with a broken economy, dangerous levels of pollution, and no future, or Iraq, beset with violence and separatism. Though the Saudi king is very powerful he and the crown prince are attentive to public opinion and won’t shy from rallying the public if the U.S. “attacks” the kingdom for trying to sell its natural wealth at the best price.

Though President Biden may feel he has it all over the much younger crown prince, he may find U.S. options are limited. Biden has promised to prevent increased U.S. oil and gas production, and a tit-for-tat fight with OPEC+ or Saudi Arabia will look demeaning and will distract him from Job 1, the economy. And the U.S. aerospace industry will fight any measure to cut sales to two of its best customers, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Then there’s China, another country that thinks it is playing defense against the U.S., and makes gains by demonstrating its lack of interest in reorganizing the society of every country with which it comes in contact. 

The White House and Congress will more productively spend their time figuring out the potential costs and consequences of NOPEC, why America no longer has reliable allies in OPEC+, and how it will constructively react to the alignment of leading energy suppliers with China.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.97470 UP   0.0040 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL GREEN  

USA/ YEN 146.73   DOWN  0.055 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1262 UP   0.01620

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 9.15 PTS OR 0.30% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED  DOWN 311.92 POINTS OR 1.87% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.12%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 311.92 PTS OR 1.87%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 9.15 PTS OR 0.30%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.12% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 159.41 PTS OR 0.60%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1678.90

silver:$19.24

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 112.63 DOWN 60  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.37% DOWN 3  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.243% DOWN 0 AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.46%//  DOWN 3 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.71  DOWN 4   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +2.2965% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.97667 UP .0063   or 63 basis points

USA/Japan: 147.21 UP 0.434 OR YEN DOWN 44 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.13110 UP .02129 OR  213 BASIS POINTS 

Canadian dollar UP .0027 OR 27 BASIS pts  to 1.3793

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(UP) AT 7.1705

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.1929

TURKISH LIRA:  18.56  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.243

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.960% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.930  UP 4  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 112.49 DOWN 49 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 24.12 PTS OR  0.35%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 183.32POINTS OR 1.31%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 60.72 PTS OR 1.04% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 89.60 OR  1.23%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 319.04PTS OR  1.56%

WTI Oil price 88.81  12: EST

Brent Oil:  93.68   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  63.53 UP 0  AND 88/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2965

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.97721 UP .0068     OR  68  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.13070 UP  .02074 or  208 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.25 UP .479//YEN DOWN 48 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3750 DOWN 0.0068  (CDN dollar, UP 68 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 89.19

Brent OIL:  94.65

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 3.964%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 3.947%

USA dollar index:112.29 DOWN 85 CENTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.55

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  63.63  UP 0 AND   79/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 36.31 PTS OR 0.12 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 135.62 PTS OR 1.24%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 33.75 UP 1.30 PTS (4.01)%

GLD: $155.16 DOWN 0.32 OR 0.21%

SLV/ $17.68  DOWN $.41 OR 2.27%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Soaring CPI & Extreme Pre-Positioning Sparks Massive Swings Across Markets

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 04:01 PM

CPI (soaring food and shelter costs) slammed the markets hard…but pre-positioning sparked a massive reversal everywhere…

Source: Bloomberg

Sheesh, that escalated quickly…

The day started off well with a series of headlines from the UK that Truss and Kwarteng would fold on tax cuts. Gilt and Linker yields tumbled as BoE accepted offers rose to top $5bn…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable also soared (though no confirmation of the budget plans was forthcoming yet)…

Source: Bloomberg

Hotter than expected CPI sent rate-hike expectations soaring to a new high above 4.90% (terminal rate in March 2023) and at the same time, the expectations for rate-cuts dovishly surged also

Source: Bloomberg

The odds of a 100bps hike in November also shot up…

Source: Bloomberg

Around 1400ET, JPM CEO Jamie Dimon warned that he “doesn’t think there will be a soft landing,” adding that his “gut tells him the Fed rate will be higher than 4-4.5%”

As a reminder, net hedge fund positioning into CPI was the lowest in 5 years

Separately, we also know that the 5-day rolling average notional of index puts is $1 Trillion, per day, every day, that according to Goldman, is a new record!

And sure enough saw a massive short-squeeze off the dismal can market open…

Source: Bloomberg

As we said last night:

“sentiment has completely bombed out – yes the CPI may come in hot, and will likely lead to more selling, at least initially, but everyone is already positioned for this.”

So the 3.5-4% plunge in stocks on the CPI was reversed at the US cash open, ripping back 5-6% higher…

Energy and Financial stocks were the day’s best performers (as the latter kick off earnings season tomorrow). Notably, financials were up almost 7% from the opening lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P bounced off its 200-week moving-average…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P bounced perfectly off its 50% retrace of the post-COVID rip…

Source: Bloomberg

“We bounced off of this support level and that becomes self-fulfilling,” said Ellen Hazen, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at F.L.Putnam Investment Management.

“There’s so much uncertainty in the market and so many data points are conflicting that the market responds to whatever is the most recent.”

Dow rallied over 1500 points off the CPI plunge lows…

…one of the biggest ranges on record

Source: Bloomberg

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Treasuries were just as chaotic as stocks today with a massive spike in yields on the CPI print (+15-25bps) then a complete reversal in all but 2Y. By the close most yields were marginally higher with 2Y underpeforming dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y yields briefly topped 4.00% for the first time since August 2011 but then caught an aggressive bid back down…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve inverted/flattened significantly more after CPI with 2s10s trading below -51bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar spiked higher on the CPI print then spent the rest of the day getting monkeyhammered lower (now lower on the week)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin followed a similar path to stocks with a major puke on CPI followed by a buying panic back above $19000…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the day lower (despite USD weakness), puking hard on the CPI before bouncing back somewhat…

Oil prices ended significantly higher after getting slammed on the CPI…

Finally, we fear today’s rip could be the start of the next major pain trade as seasonality swings strongly in bulls’ favor…

Source: Bloomberg

And with positioning so extreme going in… who knows. Just one thing though, if we rip like we did in June… The Fed will come thundering ‘over the top’ to ensure financial conditions don’t ease too much… so be careful what you wish for.

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//CPI RELEASE

CPI hotter than expected, sends stocks and everything else with it:

(zerohedge)

US Core CPI Surges To 40 Year Highs; Food & Shelter Costs Soar

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 08:38 AM

While the market’s volatility this week has been focused on UK pension funds and budgets and systemic risk, this morning’s US CPI print will likely determine the next leg from here with expectations for an acceleration in core inflation and small slowdown in headline growth of consumer prices.

Disappointingly, for the hopeful bulls, Headline and Core CPI printed hotter than expected.

Headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM (double expectations) and up 8.2% YoY (hotter than the +8.1% exp)…

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI is up 28 straight months, soaring to +6.6% YoY – the highest since August 1982…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, the range of forecasts for core CPI was extremely narrow between +0.3% and +0.5% MoM.

Services inflation continues to rise as goods inflation slows…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood food and shelter jumped notably (despite energy drops). A few indexes declined over the month, including the index for used cars and trucks, which fell 1.1 percent in September after decreasing 0.1 percent in August.  The apparel index fell 0.3 percent over the month, and the communication index decreased 0.1 percent in September.

Food inflation remains extremely high…

The owners’ equivalent rent index also increased 0.8 percent over the month, the largest monthly increase in that index since June 1990.

  • Shelter inflation 6.59%, up from 6.24% last month and the highest on record.
  • Rent inflation 7.21%, up from 6.74% last month, and the highest on record.

CPI says “shelter index also rose 6.6% Y/Y, accounting for over 40 percent of the total increase in all items ex food and energy.” This is because rent data flow through into CPI is 6-9 months delayed from the market, meanwhile real-time rent data now negative MoM.

Services dominated the rise MoM…

…and Services and Food really driving the YoY shift…

Sadly, real wages are lower for Americans for the 18th straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

Margin pressure continues…

Source: Bloomberg

The market has been down 7 of the last 9 CPI days…

Finally, here’s JPMorgan’s guide to trading this print:

  • CPI prints above 8.3% ->  this will be another -5% day. The Sep 13 CPI print, when the whisper number was a miss but got a beat instead (8.3% vs. 8.1% consensus; 8.5% prior) triggered a 4.3% decline in the SPX as Credit outperformed.
  • CPI prints 8.1% – 8.3% -> also a negative outcome, with SPX -1.5% – 2%, potentially characterized by a buyers strike. The bigger concern here, according to JPM, is the bond market repricing to increase the probability of a 75bps hike in December.
  • CPI prints 7.9% – 8.0% -> this is likely enough to stage a rally, perhaps +75bps – 100bps. Currently, Bloomberg’s mash up of economic forecasts show 2022 Q4 averaging 7.2%, meaning that if we see an 8.0% print this week, then the next two prints need to average 6.9%.
  • CPI prints below 7.9% -> should this come to fruition, JPM thinks a +2-3% day is most likely, though if we see CPI gap down more than 60bps (largest is the move from 9.1% to 8.5%) the move could be larger; then calls for a Fed pause/pivot may become deafening.

So, you know what to do…

END

Markets Puke As CPI Sends Rate-Hike Odds Soaring

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 08:55 AM

The hotter than expected CPI print – following a hotter than expected PPI print – has sparked chaos in markets this morning…

Most importantly, rate-hike expectations have soared with the terminal rate now over 4.85%…

Critically, the market is now pricing in 18% odds of a 100bps hike in November…

30Y Yields are nearing 4.00% for the first time since August 2011…

10Y yields spiked back above 4.00%…

And 2Y Yields are testing 4.50%…

The dollar surged higher…

Gold slammed lower…

Bitcoin plunged back below $19,000…

And futures are plunging…

This is the 8th market crash response of the last 10 CPI days.

end

“Horrible”… “Brutal”…”A Disaster For Democrats”: A Shocked Wall Street Reacts To Today’s CPI Nuclear Bomb

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 09:38 AM

For all the talk of the world being on the verge of nuclear war courtesy of the dementia patient in the White House, a real life financial nuke just went off at 8:30am when the BLS reported a shocking CPI print so unexpectedly hot ( a 2.9-sigma upside surprise to consensus), that even the bears were shocked. The result was… well, an absolute disaster doesn’t even begin to cut it.

And as one would expect, alongside the shock and awe there was a barrage of delightful soundbite to go along with Wall Street’s reaction. Below we have summarized some of them:

Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed-income at NatAlliance Securities.

Horrible CPI number… what will the Fed to do on interest rates: Will they go 100 basis?”

Jim Caron. Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

“It is brutal… I do think that prices will start to moderate — I thought that this would already be happening at this point,” he tells Bloomberg TV. The issue now is that inflation has moved from the goods sector and has permeated into the services sector.”

Chris Antsey, Bloomberg senior editor

For Democrats, this is a disaster. Today’s is the final CPI report ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm election. You can bet that Republicans will be hitting this hard — worst inflation in four decades.”

Nick Timraous, Fed mouthpiece at the WSJ

For the Fed, the September CPI report seals the case for a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point hike. It calls into question the modal outlook from three weeks ago—that the Fed might be able to stop raising rates after 50 bps in December and 25 in February

Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research,

“This was clearly a bad number. It’s just broad-based inflation. Is what it is…. Need much more goods disinflation to offset the high sticky parts of core.”

Seth Carpenter, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley,

“That this was clearly a shock for markets. If ever there’s a time for people who do economic forecasting to be humbled, this is it.”

Steve Chiavarone, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes:

“This report raises the risk that we may see a new cycle high in headline inflation before the end of the year. With energy prices moving back up, a mid-90s oil price in December could see us surpass the 9.1% headline peak from June… Looking at the components, what is most worrying is the big jump in services. Service inflation is the most sticky. This is where both shelter prices and wages reign supreme.”

Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones:

This print not only poses a challenge for the Fed but also the broader economy. Inflation was supposed to be moderating but instead we got a print that moved in the wrong direction.”

Michael Pearce, senior US economist at Capital Economics:

“There are still clear signs of disinflation everywhere else we look. The drop in used auto prices should continue to feed through, the survey evidence points to weakening price pressures, and the private sector measures of new rents point to an eventual sharp moderation in shelter inflation too – although that wont feed through in earnest until H1 2023.”

Angelo Manolatos, US and Canada interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, calls today’s report “clearly a core-services story:”

“But it’s not just rent. Core services excluding rents is growing at over 6.5% year-over-year.  With no rent relief on the horizon, core services price gains will continue to underpin core inflation.”

Ira Jersey, chief rates strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence:

“It’s difficult to see the 10-year yield not break 4% today on this CPI report. The yield curve may continue to flatten and retest recent lows as the market will likely price for an even more aggressive Fed terminal interest rate.”

Anna Wong, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics, says:

“The September CPI print is not good — and even so, the subdued monthly headline rate likely marks the best inflation news we’ll get for a while. With gasoline prices rising again since OPEC+ announced cuts, and core services inflation still robust, the upside surprise in today’s print — plus the unfavorable prints expected in coming months — will make it difficult for the Fed to communicate a downshift in the pace of rate hikes in December, as policy makers indicated in the latest dot plot.”

Mohamed El-Erian

“Once again, hotter than expected US inflation numbers for both the core and headline measures… and, therefore, bad news for the Federal Reserve and markets and, more importantly, the economy and especially the most vulnerable segments of society.

Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities:

“Stronger report on headline and core so the market move makes sense. The market pricing for the terminal rate was 4.66% before the report, now at 4.7% and this can keep nudging higher. We are looking for 5% terminal (effective of 4.83%).

Oscar Munoz, US Macro strategist at TD Securities:

“I do not think this changes much for the Fed, just that it lowers the idea of a Fed pivot. They’re likely to continue hiking at large 75bp clip in November, and increases the risk of another 75bp for December. Though we’re of the view that they will do 50bp. As they get further into restrictive policy territory, they will become less hawkish in terms of the pace of rate increases given they have hiked so much this past year and rising concerns about financial stability.”

And now we sit back and wait for something to break.

AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC MINUTES

ii) USA DATA/

USA imports lower in September suggesting a deeper recession

(Miller/FreightWaves)

US Imports Sink In September, Suffer Steepest Drop Since 2020 Lockdowns

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 08:05 PM

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves

First came the pullback in spot shipping rates from their historic peak. Then came reports of plunging Asian bookings and mass retail order cancellations, with spot rates falling even fasterNow, all of this is finally showing up at America’s ports.

According to Descartes, which aggregates U.S. Customs data, inbound volumes to all U.S. ports totaled 2,215,731 twenty-foot equivalent units in September. That’s down 11% year on year and 12.4% from August.

Last month’s imports came in below September 2020 levels, albeit still up 9% from September 2019, pre-COVID. Imports this September were down 15.5% versus May, the month inbound volumes hit an all-time high, according to Descartes data.

September’s 313,311-TEU decline versus August was the steepest month-to-month drop recorded by Descartes since the 364,454-TEU plunge in February 2020 versus the month before, back when Chinese authorities first locked down Wuhan.

“We’ve had a pretty significant correction here,” said Chris Jones, executive vice president of industry and services at Descartes Systems Group, in an interview with American Shipper on Monday.

This is normally the time of year when imports seasonally decline — but not by this much. “There was an inflection, and it was a big one,” he said. “In some respects, this is not inconsistent with other years [pre-COVID]. It’s just more severe.”

If the usual seasonal pattern holds true from here, Jones added, imports “should slow down for the rest of the year.”

Descartes: Imports decline on all three coasts

This summer, overall U.S. imports remained stubbornly high, hovering near record levels even as West Coast volumes declined. West Coast losses were offset by East and Gulf Coast gains, reportedly due to shippers shifting cargoes eastward due to fears of West Coast peak season congestion and labor unrest.

Ports on all three coasts saw volumes drop versus August, according to Descartes. Most surprisingly, it found that imports fell 21.5% in Savannah, Georgia, from 285,341 TEUs to 223,966 TEUs.

Savannah, along with New York/New Jersey, has been one of the big winners of the eastward shift. Savannah posted record imports in August. It has had the country’s longest queue of waiting ships for months. As of Monday, ship-position data showed 35 ships still waiting. The presence of so many vessels offshore confirms there is no shortage of cargo waiting to be unloaded in Savannah, so how could its import numbers fall so steeply in September?

The answer appears to be: Hurricane Ian. Official Savannah numbers have yet to be released. A spokesperson for the Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) told American Shipper: “September volume was impacted due to Hurricane Ian and the suspension of vessel service for roughly three days. GPA has since been accommodating that volume, which will be reflected in October numbers.”

Meanwhile, official data released Tuesday by South Carolina Ports conflicts with Descartes data. South Carolina Ports said loaded imports were up 16% year on year in September, implying that Charleston import volumes were flat versus August, whereas Descartes said they fell 6.5% month on month.

Data from PIERS also conflicts with Descartes. PIERS data shows only a 0.8% year-on-year decline in U.S. imports in September, and an 8.2% sequential drop in September versus August.

Supply chain crunch not over yet

According to Descartes, U.S. imports from China totaled 820,329 TEUs in September, down 22.7% year on year and 18.3% versus August. Declines from China accounted for 61.5% of last month’s drop compared to the month before.

“If you think about the lockdowns in China, some of those things have now had a chance to flush themselves out and you now see that in the numbers,” said Jones, noting the lag effect between the lockdowns and the import decline. “These Chinese numbers are way down.”

Commenting on the timing of the September plunge, Jones pointed to multiple lag effects between initial demand weakness and import data weakness, ranging from lags on the origin side to those at America’s ship queues. “Imports are a completely lagging indicator because of the lead times,” he emphasized. “These supply chains are so extended.”

Supply chain crunch not over yet

Declining import volumes should give terminals breathing room to clear out more containers from their yards in the months ahead. Even so, Jones agreed that “it’s too soon to declare victory” when it comes to the supply chain crunch.

Imports and consumer spending are still above pre-pandemic levels. Rail congestion remains high. Both import and empty container levels at terminals remain elevated.

As of Monday morning, there were still 103 container ships waiting offshore of North American ports. Waiting times off East and Gulf Coast ports remained over 10 days in September, according to Descartes. Meanwhile, there has yet to be a breakthrough in the West Coast port labor negotiations and the new rail labor contract still requires approval. (One union has just rejected the proposal.)

The complexity of the situation makes it very difficult for U.S. retailers and importers to plan ahead. “There’s too much and not enough,” said Jones. “Things like personal gaming systems come in the door and they’re out the door, while you have seasonal [goods] where you just get crushed.”

Overall, “consumption has not slowed down as much as people thought,” he continued. Importers “have to make bets and the longer the lead time [due to supply chain delays] the less accurate” those bets turn out. As a result, he said, “we’ll see some cases where too much inventory shows up and others where you can’t get enough of what you need.”

end

In reality, rent inflation is coming down:  their data is 6 to 9 months too old

(zerohedge)

“Rent Inflation Seems Crazy”: Why The CPI Is Making The Same Huge Mistake Now It Did One Year Ago

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 11:15 AM

As we noted, Today’s CPI print – as hot as it was – was odd because while goods and energy inflation is now almost gone, services inflation is off the charts…

… and that’s mostly housing, shelter and rent, with the BLS reporting that “the shelter index also rose 6.6 percent over the last year, accounting for over 40 percent of the total increase in all items less food and energy.”

Which is great only… it’s about a year late. As we said earlier, “the time to panic about soaring rent was a year ago… as we did here, but not the Fed. Now BLS has just caught up to reality 6-9 months ago. Meanwhile real life rents are finally fading”

That’s right: while the BLS chart of shelter and rent inflation is off the charts…

… that’s only because, as we explained extensively last year, both rent and shelter data is delayed as much as 9-12 month. And indeed, moments before the CPI report, Redfin reported that the Median rent had finally posted its first notable decline in almost two years, to wit: the median U.S. asking rent rose 9% year over year in September to $2,002, the slowest growth since August 2021 and the first single-digit increase in a year. September was the fourth-consecutive month in which annual rent growth decelerated, with rents climbing at half the pace they were six months earlier.

“The rental market is coming back down to earth because high rents and economic uncertainty have put an end to the pandemic moving frenzy of 2020 and 2021, when remote work fueled an enormous surge in housing demand that would’ve otherwise been spread out over the coming years,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Rising supply is also causing rent growth to slow. Scores of apartments that have been under construction are now coming on the market, and more homeowners are choosing to become landlords instead of selling in order to hold on to their record-low mortgage rates.”

Marr continued: “We expect rent growth to slow further into 2023 as Americans continue to hunker down and more new rentals hit the market.”

Of course, the BLS won’t know this for another 6-9 months, just as they did not know that rents were hyperinflating last summer, when we were warning about what was really going on below the surface. 

In other words, on the left we have the BLS’s much-delayed data, and on the right we have what is actually happening:

But it’s not just us who – as much as we would like to continue our victory lap – are cautioning against reading too much into today’s red hot inflation number. As Academy Securites strategist Peter Tchir writes in a note titled “Not That Anyone Will Care, But OER Seems Crazy” something very messy is going on with the rental data.

Tchir first highlights what we pointed out earlier, to wit from today’s BLS CPI report

The rent index rose 0.8 percent in September. The owners’ equivalent rent index also increased 0.8 percent over the month, the largest monthly increase in that index since June 1990.

He adds: “The bold is mine, but I personally was shocked to discover that September 2022 was the largest monthly increase in OER in over 30 years!”

Tchir also look to Redfin, and specifically its Rental Market Tracker Report, which showed their Median Monthly Rent dropping by 2.5% in the month of September: “Yes it is median, yes it is one companies data, but intuitively that seems more likely than highest monthly gains in 32 years”

Alas, it’s not that simple: at the same time, the Zillow rent index tells a different story. Rents were increasing, month on month at a dangerous rate back in the summer and fall of 2021 – during peak transitory and while QE was still “necessary”. Rents, according to Zillow, are still running higher than longer term averages, but not by much and they’ve been headed in the right direction.

So what to make of this? Here is Tchir’s conclusion:

Just following orders is not an excuse for anyone, and it seems shocking that we may base policy (and certainly market reaction) on numbers that do not seem to reflect reality.

It seems (and has seemed clear) to me that CPI, for example massively understated inflation last year. While everywhere you turned, there were horror stories about price increases, CPI barely reflected them.

Now, are we just catching up to problems we’ve already lived through?

Two wrongs don’t make a right, and this little rant is unlikely to sway markets, at least not today, but I have a lot of difficulty digesting today’s CPI, when the biggest input contributed to 0.3 to the monthly total of 0.6 (Shelter is 32.5% of total CPI and I believe it is 42% (32.5/78.1) of CPI ex food and energy).

Maybe that is an accurate reflection of where we are in the economy today, but I don’t buy it. On the other hand, I’ve learned to not fight the Fed or markets, so not sure there is much to do with this information, except file it into my growing list of reasons why we will experience a hard landing.

Tchir is right, and of course the Fed will realize it has overtightened into a housing market that has peaked some time in the summer of 2023. By then, however, the economy will be in freefall and the central bank will be planning its next massive stimulus because just as we said in January, nothing really ever changes…

end

Jobless claims rise to highest level since August in aftermath of Hurricane Ian

Oct. 13, 2022 at 8:44 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

U.S. jobless benefit claims hit 228,000 in latest week – led by jump in Florida

The numbers: Initial jobless benefit claims rose 9,000 to 228,000 in the week ended October 8, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal has forecast an increase to 225,000.

Claims have increased in three of the last four weeks. This is the highest level of claims since late August.

Key details: The jump in claims was led by Florida, fresh from the devastation caused by Hurricane Ian.

Nationwide, the number of people already collecting jobless benefits rose by 3,000 to 1.368 million.

Big picture: Hurricanes tend to add to economic growth over time as stricken communities start to rebuild.

Overall, the labor market has been strong and there are reports that firms are “hoarding” workers even as the economy slows But there have been scattered reports this week that big firms like Intel INTC, -0.26% are planning to lay off workers.

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

This is interesting:  Tulsi Gabbard to campaign for GOP candidate, Don Boldac in New Hampshire.

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

Tulsi Gabbard To Stump For GOP Candidate A Day After Leaving Democratic Party

WEDNESDAY, OCT 12, 2022 – 06:05 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former 2020 presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party this week, will campaign for a Republican Senate candidate ahead of the 2022 midterms.Then-Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard speaks during the 2020 Public Service Forum hosted by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Aug. 3, 2019. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc, who won the Republican primary and is campaigning against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), confirmed in a statement Wednesday that Gabbard will be stumping for him.

We don’t agree on every issue, but I am honored to have the support of Tulsi Gabbard who shares my view that the status quo is broken, and we need a change of direction,” Bolduc said in a statement

“Tulsi is a fellow change agent and independent-minded outsider willing to speak truth to power.”

Bolduc, notably, was endorsed by former President Donald Trump earlier this year.

He added, “I am going to spend every day between now and election day building a wide coalition of supporters that includes Republicans, independents, and even disaffected Democrats who know that Senator Hassan is a career politician and must be retired.”

Gabbard drew headlines on Tuesday when she announced she was leaving the Democratic Party. The former Hawaii congresswoman was a candidate for the Democrats in the 2020 presidential election after having served multiple terms in the House of Representatives.

If you can no longer stomach the direction that the so-called woke Democratic Party ideologues are taking our country, then I invite you to join me,” she in a video posted on Twitter. Democrats, Gabbard added, “divide us by racializing every issue & stoking anti-white racism, who actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms enshrined in our Constitution.”

Although Gabbard ultimately endorsed Joe Biden for president in 2020, she’s later been critical of his administration. The former lawmaker continued to target Biden in Tuesday’s video message.

“President [Joe] Biden campaigned on a message of unity, healing the partisan divide bringing the country together. He just gave a big speech saying supporters of President Trump are the most extremist group in our country and a threat to our democracy. That’s half the country,” Gabbard remarked.

Read more here…

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//INFLATION WATCH

This should add dramatically to government costs

(zerohedge)

Social Security Benefits Receive 8.7% Boost For 2023

THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 – 03:40 PM

Less than an hour after US core CPI surged to 40-year highsthe Social Security Administration announced that benefits for around 70 million Americans will increase 8.7% in 2023.

This will amount to an average increase of more than $140 per month beginning in January for Social Security beneficiaries, and beginning in December for more than 7 million Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiaries.

Of note, the Social Security Act links the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to the increase in the Consumer Price Index.

Medicare premiums are going down and Social Security benefits are going up in 2023, which will give seniors more peace of mind and breathing room. This year’s substantial Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is the first time in over a decade that Medicare premiums are not rising and shows that we can provide more support to older Americans who count on the benefits they have earned,” said acting Commissioner Kilolo Kijakazi in a statement.

Meanwhile the maximum amount of earning subject to the Social Security tax (taxable minimum) will increase from $147,000 to $160,00.

SWAMP STORIES

KING REPORT

The King Report October 13, 2022 Issue 5784Independent View of the News
@nickgerli1: What happens to Stock Prices when the Fed Pivots? Historically – they crash by even more.  Over the last 6 Major Recessions, Stocks Crashed an average of 28% AFTER the Fed did 1st Rate Cut.  Taking another 14 Months to get to the “Bottom”. https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1579873616451502081
    Check out what happened in the GFC. Fed Pivoted in Aug 2007. People thought Markets would be saved. Then S&P proceeded to crash by 50%. Bottoming in Feb 2009.  While Home Prices crashed by 24%. Bottoming in early 2012.  https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1579874366955065347
    Lesson: don’t be fooled into thinking the inevitable Fed Pivot in early 2023 will “save” markets/ economy.  Rather – take it as a sign that things are going to get worse.   It’s the Fed saying “this Recession is getting bad”.   On average – Unemployment Rate peaks 24 Months AFTER the Fed Pivot.
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1579875996664467463
 
Yen Weakens Past Level That Triggered Last Japan Intervention – BBG 20:39 ET Tuesday
 
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledges to maintain monetary easing to support an economy that’s still recovering from the pandemic https://t.co/3D7E9i1hdN
 
BoJ offers to buy 100.0 bln yen in TBs outright future delivery – BBG 21:10 ET Tuesday
BoJ to supply 400.0 bln yen on outright purchases of CP – BBG 21:34 ET Tuesday
 
@zerohedge: Japan’s Benchmark Govt Bonds Fail to Trade for 4th Straight Day
 
The yen hit 146.97, the lowest level vs. the dollar since August 1998.  The inexorable squeeze on the global ginormous short-dollar positions continues!  We have warned about this dynamic for months.
 
@zerohedge: As of 2020, JPM calculated that the global USD short was $12 trillion. It is now ~$20 trillion.   https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1580017153893277697/photo/1
 
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill signals interest rates are likely to rise sharply in November https://t.co/s0SISRJMrM
 
@LizYoungStrat: Long-term UK Gilt bonds have posted a total return of -52.3% since Dec 2021. An entire decade of gains wiped out.  https://twitter.com/LizYoungStrat/status/1579849188090974208
 
UK Markets Roiled by BOE as 10-Year Yield Jumps to 2008 High (4.64%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-bonds-fall-bailey-warns-071124352.html
 
BOE Has Biggest Buying Day of Bond Buying after Bailey’s Warning – BBG
The UK central bank bought £4.56 billion of long-dated and inflation-linked bonds in two operations on Wednesday.  That brought the total purchases to a little over £13 billion… The yield on 30-year gilts earlier exceeded 5%, the highest since the BOE stepped in to calm the market…
 
UK’s Chancellor Kwarteng: I authorized the increase in the Bank of England’s asset purchase facility by £100 bln to £966 bln to accommodate the temporary gilt purchase programme.
 
Reportedly the Fed has sent $3B to the Swiss National Bank via a currency swap.  Why?  Credit Suisse?
 
@JavierBlas: BASF, world’s top chemical producerreleases profit warning, cost-cutting program and job losses (and says it was loss-making in 3Q in Germany) “Increased prices for raw materials and energy could only partly be passed on through higher selling prices.”  https://t.co/LxFzgIct8M
 
US September PPI 0.4% m/m & 8.5% y/y, 0.2% m/m & 8.4% y/y exp.; Core PPI 0.3% m/m and 7.2% y/y, 0.3% and 7.3% y/y exp.; food prices surged 1.2%. m/m https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
 
Rail workers reject new contracts, reviving strike fears after Biden took credit for ending dispute
The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division of the Teamsters on Monday rejected the tentative contract in large part over a lack of paid sick days, union President Tony Cardell said…
    Four unions have so far ratified the White House-backed contracts, while seven have votes pending on the deal. The eleven unions represent about 115,000 rail workers…  https://t.co/bQRrgcFKiB
 
New York Fed: Inflation Expectations Decline in the Short Term; Tick Up in the Longer Term
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations continued to decline in September, falling by 0.3 percentage point to 5.4%, its lowest reading since September 2021. In contrast, three-year-ahead inflation expectations rose slightly to 2.9% from 2.8% in August… Expectations about year-ahead price changes rose by 0.4 percentage points for gas (to 0.5%), 1.0 percentage point for food (to 6.9%), 0.6 percentage point for college education (to 9.0%) and 0.1 percentage point for rent (to 9.7%). The median expected change in the cost of medical care, on the other hand, fell by 0.1 percentage point (to 9.2%)… https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2022/20221011
 
Fed’s Kashkari: ‘quite a ways away’ from pausing rate hikes
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/feds-kashkari-quite-a-ways-away-from-pausing-rate-hikes/ar-AA12FJod
 
Kashkari Says Bar for Fed Policy Pivot on Rate Is ‘Very High’ – BBG 11:03 ET
For me, the bar for such a change is very high because we have not yet seen much evidence that the underlying inflation — the services inflation, the wage inflation, the labor market — that that is yet softening… There is some evidence that supply chain issues are improving, although it is sector specific… “I think we’re quite a ways away from anything like that,” Kashkari said, referring to the idea of a policy pivot. “I think a much more likely scenario is we will raise to some level north of 4% — maybe 4.5 — and then pause and sit there for an extended period of time while the tightening we’ve already done works its way through the economy.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/kashkari-says-fed-avoiding-overtightening-by-not-moving-faster
 
Despite the worse-than-expected US September PPI and Kashkari’s warnings, US stocks rallied – because traders and trading models are conditioned to buy stocks for earnings reporting season, and the BoE’s gilt intervention.  Even big banks rallied despite the analyst warnings about big bank Q3 results.
 
ESZs traded sideways in moderate range during Asian trading.  After Asia closed, ESZs soared for the European open.  After hitting the daily high of 3635.25 at 2:45 ET, ESZs sank to 3605.00 at 3:30 ET.  ESZs then traded in a wide range until they broken down 5 minutes before the NYSE open.
 
ESZs and stocks quickly rallied but they peaked at 9:45 ET.  ESZs and stocks then reverted to trading within a moderate range as earnings season buyers were stalemated by fundamental sellers – and traders awaited the FOMC Minutes from the September 20-21 meeting.
 
FOMC Minutes from Sept. 20-21 MeetingFed officials favored reaching restrictive rates in near term – BBGMany Saw Cost of Too Little Outweighing Too Much – BBGSeveral saw need to calibrate tightening to mitigate risk – BBGFed officials committed to rate increase despite labor market slowdown – BBGFOMC minutes show Fed worried by ongoing and ‘unacceptably high’ inflation – DJA number of officials cited risk of wageprice spiral – DJhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220921.pdf
 
ESZs spiked 15 handles higher on the release of the FOMC Minutes but the gain was quickly rescinded. ESZs and stocks then vacillated wildly in a moderate range.  At the 14:15 ET VIX Fix, ESZs spiked modestly higher; this rally was also quickly rescinded.  The contest between earnings season buyers and fundamental sellers continued. 
 
At 14:45 ET, ESZs and stocks broke lower; a bottom appeared at 15:04 ET.  A plodding 12-handle ESZ rally ended at 15:36 ET.  ESZs sank 18 handles into the NYSE close.
 
@business: Aluminum and shares of metal producers soared following news that the Biden administration is considering a complete ban on Russian aluminum. (More inflation coming!)
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3890776-biden-administration-weighs-ban-on-russian-aluminum-bloomberg
 
Intel Is Planning Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of PC Slump
https://news.yahoo.com/intel-plans-thousands-job-cuts-235808641.html
 
@SharylAttkisson: Productivity in the US has been on a steady upward slope since it was first measured in 1948 except for this year. Now it’s down 4.1% on an annualized basis. The biggest decline ever.
 
Why questions are swirling about who will buy most of the U.S.’s $31 trillion in debt — and at what price – The absence of major buyers for Treasurys is just another source of worry on the list of concerns plaguing the U.S. government-bond market. The $23.7 trillion Treasurys market, ordinarily the world’s deepest and most liquid fixed-income market, is in fact facing thinning liquidity…
    Now that the central bank is hiking interest rates at the fastest pace in decades to contain rampant inflation, it’s also shrinking its balance sheet after putting an end to bond purchases earlier this year — all with the intent of tightening financial conditions.
    Meanwhile, foreign investors — led by those in Japan and China, which paved the way for the rest of the world to attain sizable positions in Treasurys from 2001 through 2010 — have been consistently reducing their U.S. government-bond holdings since 2014, according to the Morgan Stanley strategist…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-questions-are-swirling-about-who-will-buy-more-than-31-trillion-of-u-s-debt-and-at-what-price-11665507637
 
Positive aspects of previous session
More BoE intervention and conditioned buying for Q3 earnings season generated an equity rally
Bonds rallied sharply cuz the FOMC Minutes show the Fed wants to slow the economy
 
Negative aspects of previous session
After an early peak, ESZs and stocks trended lower and sank into the close
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
When will capitulation occur?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3586.38
Previous session High/Low3608.34; 3573.86
 
European MP Exposes Pfizer Exec Who Confessed to Covid Vaccine Fraud: ‘It Has Now Proven to Be a Big Lie’ – Dutch Member of Parliament Rob Roos has garnered international attention for revealing a bombshell admission by a Pfizer executive that the vaccines were allegedly never tested for stopping transmission… “It really was a special moment,” Roos said. “For the first time, Pfizer admitted the vaccine was not tested on stopping the transmission of the virus when it entered the market.
    “This has massive implications,” he continued. “Governments pushed millions of people worldwide to get vaccinated by telling them, telling you, to do it for your grandmother. Perfectly healthy young people [compelled] into taking this jab using false arguments. They used big words such as ‘antisocial’ to solve an immense hatred against people who refused to comply with the government’s wishes…Many people lost their job, their livelihood, their business because they stood by their principles.”… And I find this one of the biggest scandals of our time…”
    Pfizer-BioNTech to be prosecuted for fraud. This would nullify its liability protection and allow the American people to finally bring a class action lawsuit against the companies.
https://beckernews.com/european-mp-exposes-pfizer-exec-who-confessed-to-covid-vaccine-fraud-it-has-now-proven-to-be-a-big-lie-47397/
 
GOP Sen. @tedcruz: Outrageous. These CEOs need to testify—under oath—before Congress.  Next year, they will. And everyone who lied to the American people should be held accountable.
 
@ClayTravis: A top Pfizer exec admitted the company had no idea if their covid shot would stop covid transmission despite everyone in the Biden administration claiming it would. How is this not fraud? We need lawsuits and criminal trials over these covid shotshttps://t.co/Tbux7Nf05X
 
Seven times ‘disinformation’ turned out to be just the opposite
From Hunter Biden’s laptop to the origins of COVID-19, numerous contentious claims deemed false and misleading by elites have since proven legitimate.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/here-are-7-times-disinformation-turned-out-be-just-opposite
 
US Core Inflation Seen Returning to 40-Year High as Rents Rise
The so-called core consumer price index that excludes food and energy is projected to rise 0.4% in September from the prior month and 6.5% from a year earlier, matching the rate seen in March that was the highest since 1982. But about a third of economists in a Bloomberg survey expect a print of 6.6% or more.  The overall CPI, however, is expected to decelerate to a still-rapid 8.1% annual pacerestrained by a decline in gasoline prices, based on the median estimate…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/us-core-inflation-seen-returning-to-40-year-high-as-rents-rise
 
Today –US September CPI will impact trading before the NYSE open.  Traders and algos will buy stocks for the start of Q3 earnings season because they are programmed to do so.  Therefore, unless September CPI is very bad, there should be a rally.  ESZs are +11.00 and USZs are -3/32 at 20:10 ET.
 
Expected economic data: Sept CPI 0.2% m/m & 8.1% y/y, Core CPI 0.4% m/m & 6.5% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 225k, Continuing Claims 1.365m
 
Expected earnings: WGA .77, DAL 1.55, BLK 7.10, FAST .48, PGR 1.11
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3954; 100-day MA: 3942; 150-day MA: 4065; 200-day MA: 4173
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,492; 100-day MA: 31,569; 150-day MA: 32,310 200-day MA: 32,965
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4610.41 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4019.66 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3734.32 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3638.58 triggers a sell signal
 
BIDEN: “There’s no guarantee that there’s gonna be a recession—I don’t think there will be a recession. If it is, it will be a slight recession. That is, we’ll move down slightly.”
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1580008728535130112
 
Biden Says ‘Very Slight’ Recession Possible, But Downplays Risk – BBG
President Joe Biden said a recession in the US is possible but that any downturn would be “very slight” and that the US economy is resilient enough to ride out the turbulence.
    “I don’t think there will be a recession.  If it is, it’ll be a very slight recession.  That is, we’ll move down slightly,” Biden said in an interview Tuesday (night) with CNN…
    Asked flatly if the American people should prepare for a recession, Biden replied: “No.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/biden-says-very-slight-recession-possible-but-downplays-risk
 
@townhallcom: (CNN’s) TAPPER: “When people hear the word Armageddon, they get scared. Do you think in any way, discussing this type of thing…might have the opposite effect of what you want?”
BIDEN: “When I’m talking about—I’m talking to Putin.” He was, in fact, talking to Democrat donors.
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1580008021421588480
 
Biden also said the Saudis face US consequences after OPEC+ production cut.
 
@SteveGuest: WATCH: Joe Biden drops his cheat sheet during his interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper.
https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1580009309651767296
 
@TheFirstonTV: Confused Joe Biden tells CNN he has spent “$1 billion, trillion, 750 million, billion dollars” to fight global warming.  https://twitter.com/TheFirstonTV/status/1580015633412292609
 
@thebradfordfile: Keep in mind CNN is only showing the “good clips” of Biden. LOL.
 
The CNN ‘exclusive’ with The Big Guy lasted only 15 minutes!!!  What restrictions did Biden’s handlers place on CNN to procure the brief exclusive?  PS – Most of CNN’s soft toss session was about Russia.
 
@JackPosobiec: Trump was impeached over an alleged quid pro quo threat to Ukraine over weapons transfers before an election.  Biden just admitted to CNN he is threatening Saudi Arabia if they don’t agree to his quid pro quo for oil transfers before an election.  Don’t even need a whistleblower.  Biden is threatening to withhold Congressionally-appropriated military aid to coerce a foreign country to give him a political favor 1 month before an election.  He admitted this on TV.  And no one cares.
 
White House Wants Low-Key 80th Birthday for Biden
The White House is hoping to downplay President Joe Biden’s entrance into the octogenarian club next month as questions continue to swirl about his fitness to lead the nation..https://t.co/njp1M4PJhc
 
Joe Biden Says His Son Beau ‘Died in Iraq’ – died from brain cancer in 2015..
https://www.thefirsttv.com/breaking-now-joe-biden-says-his-son-beau-died-in-iraq/
 
@nypost: Today’s coverNYC schools struggle to cope with influx of 5,500 migrant kids https://trib.al/EmBPn9f
 
@ClayTravis: (PA Dem Sen candidate) John Fetterman has to conduct interviews using a computer so he can read the questions he’s being asked. And he still can’t speak correctly even then. This is insane. Imagine what media would be saying if a Republican was trying to pull this campaign off:
 
@greg_price11: NBC: “We’ve asked for your medical records… you’ve declined. Why?”  Fetterman: “Our doctor has already given a record saying I’m ready to serve.” NBC: “That letter was six months ago. Don’t voters deserve to know your status now?” Fetterman: I do speeches and give interviews
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1579967376992665602
 
@townhallcom: MSNBC: John Fetterman “has a hard time understanding what he’s hearing…he still has some problems, some challenges with speech…he had a hard time understanding our conversations.”
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1579903752928366592
 
Liberals rush to defend Fetterman as reporters question his mental fitness following NBC interview https://t.co/JQBjSXYSmf
 
@davidharsanyi: It went from “there’s absolutely nothing wrong with Fetterman” to “how dare you attack the disabled” in a few hours. It’s amazing how quickly a talking point coalesces.
 
@HansMahn>https://nypost.com/2022/10/12/dhs-boss-was-told-horseback-agents-did-not-whip-migrants-before-repeating-false-claims/
 
GOP Sen. @MarshaBlackburn: DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas stood at the White House podium and attacked our brave men and women in the Border Patrol. He claimed they were racist and whipping migrants. The only problem is that Mayorkas was told hours before that these claims were false.
 
Virginia GOP candidate rips liberal journalist who called Child Protective Services over Columbus Day tweet – The online spat began when David Leavitt, a self-described “award-winning multimedia journalist” with bylines for CBS, AXS, Yahoo and Examiner took issue with Ramirez’s tweet for Columbus Day.  “I teach my daughter real American history. I refuse to join the radical left’s campaign to erase history,” Ramirez tweeted. Responding, Leavitt shot back, “Why are you celebrating torture, rape, murder, and enslavement?” He then encouraged his more than 300,000 followers, “Can someone please call child care services on Tina Ramirez who’s teaching her child to be a racist?” Leavitt said he personally called Child Protective Services himself, complaining of the high call volumes… But Leavitt didn’t let up, writing, “The lady who’s teaching her kids how to be racist thinks I’m “bold.” Does she know I’m [on] hold to report her to child and family services?”…
https://www.foxnews.com/us/virginia-gop-candidate-rips-liberal-journalist-who-called-child-protective-services-columbus-day-tweet
 
ACT test scores drop to their lowest in 30 years in dramatic pandemic slide https://trib.al/8Vak2Iv
 
State AGs warn Garland against prosecuting child transition surgery critics: ‘stand down’
‘America was founded through passionate disagreement, and the ongoing vitality of our Republic depends on our shared commitment to free speech,’ Skrmetti said…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/state-ags-warn-garland-prosecuting-child-transition-surgery-critics-stand-down
 
@realchrisrufo: University of Minnesota medical students swear an oath to “honor all Indigenous ways of healing that have been historically marginalized by Western medicine” and to fight “white supremacy, colonialism, [and] the gender binary.”  They are being inducted in the cult of CRT.
https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1579904917761708034
 
Trevor Noah rips Kanye West for his antisemitic outburst: ‘I don’t even know where to begin’
West, 45, on Saturday tweeted, ‘I’m a bit sleepy tonight but when I wake up I’m going death con 3 On JEWISH PEOPLE … The funny thing is I actually can’t be Anti Semitic because black people are actually Jew also … you guys have toyed with me and tried to black ball anyone whoever opposes your agenda.’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11309455/Trevor-Noah-rips-Kanye-West-antisemitic-outburst-dont-know-begin.html
 
Jared Kushner suggested Kanye West-led ‘healing church service’ at White House after George Floyd killing – White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows reportedly nixed the idea
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jared-kushner-george-floyd-kanye-west-b2200590.html
 
@RealCandaceO: Earlier today I learned that @kanyewest was officially kicked out of JP Morgan Chase bank. I was told there was no official reason given, but they sent this letter as well to confirm that he has until late November to find another place for the Yeezy empire to bank We have reached extremely frightening times in this country…  https://twitter.com/RealCandaceO/status/1580331572539949057
 
Theft, robbery, ID theft, and fake mail carriers are just part of a postal service “riddled with fraud” – Chicago police warned that armed robbers were taking postal keys from mail couriers at gunpoint. This morning, the Sun-Times reported a growing wave of check fraud based on mail theft.
https://cwbchicago.com/2022/10/theft-robbery-id-theft-and-fake-mail-carriers-are-just-part-of-a-postal-service-r

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