OCT 28/OPTIONS EXPIRY ENDS ON MONDAY AND THUS YOUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $19.70 TO $1641.70//SILVER WAS DOWN $.35 TO $19.18//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $17.60 TO $946.50//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $41.85 TO $1902.05//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//ELON MUSK TAKES OVER TWITTER AND FIRES THE UPPER ECHELON OVER THERE AND RESTORES ALL OF THOSE WHO HAD A LIFETIME BAN//RUSSIA WARNS THE WEST THAT NON MILITARY SATELLITES ARE NOW LEGITIMATE TARGETS: E.G.MUS’S STARLINK//FINDLAND WILLING TO HOST NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON ITS BORDER WITH RUSSIA (A DUMB MOVE)//ISRAEL ATTACKS IRANIAN ASSETS INSIDE SYRIA AGAIN//USA CITIZENS SAVINGS RATE PLUMMETS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
132 C SG AMERICAS 16 323 C HSBC 272 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 261 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1055 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 661 C JP MORGAN 113 2 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 57 880 C CITIGROUP 1 880 H CITIGROUP 1195 991 H CME 1
TOTAL: 1,487 1,487
JPMORGAN STOPPED 2/1487
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT CONTRACT: 1487 NOTICES FOR 148,700 OZ or 4.6251 TONNES
total notices so far: 24,881 contracts for 2,488,100 oz (77.390 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 27 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 135000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 716 : for 3,580,000 oz
END
Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX
With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70
WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):
GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE
ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A BIG CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 925.20 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS
AT THE SLV// :/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF OF .276 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 484.367 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 58 CONTRACTS TO 139,885 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE TINY GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL $0.03 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.03)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGE OF 868 CONTRACTS. HUGE SPECS CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR SHORTFALLS FROM WHICH OUR BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SOME SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS
WE MUST HAVE HAD: I) ZERO SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS BUT STRONG SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWING A ZERO OZ QUEUE. JUMP / // V) TINY SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: +15
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 22 days, total 57,895 contracts: 28.947 million oz OR 1.315MILLION OZ PER DAY. (263 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 28.947 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 28.947 MILLION OZ INITIAL
RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 58WITH OUR $0.03 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 825 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT. OF 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S ZERO OZ QUEUE JUMP .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 883 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 4.415 MILLION OZ..
WE HAD 27 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 135,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2992 CONTRACTS TO 460,721 AND CLOSER TO FROM TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -850 CONTRACTS.
.
THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $3.80//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY // ZERO SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS BUT MINOR SPEC SHORT COVERINGS. // CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.
WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 41,100 OZ//NEW STANDING 77.390TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $3.80 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8860 OI CONTRACTS 27.558 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5868 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 460,721
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8860 CONTRACTS WITH 2992 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3842 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8860 CONTRACTS OR 30.202 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5869) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (2992): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 8860 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// ZERO SPEC SHORT COVERINGS// CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 41,100 OZ QUEUE JUMP ///NEW STANDING 77.390 TONNES//. 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT. :
55,398 CONTRACTS OR 5,539,800 OZ OR 172.311 TONNES 22 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2518 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 22 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 172.311 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 172.311/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.84% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 172.31 TONNES INITIAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 58 CONTRACT OI TO 139,885 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 82 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 825 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 82 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 58 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 825 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 883 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.414MILLION OZ//
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 66.98 PTS OR 2.25% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 564.88 OR 3.66% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 240.04 PTS OR 0.88% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.98% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.2508 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.2752// /Oil DOWN TO 85.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 96.35 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2992 CONTRACTS TO 461,571 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS FAIR COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $3.80 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP (5868 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.
WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 5868EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC : 5868 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5868 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 8860 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5868LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 3842 CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $3.80//WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS, WITH BANKERS AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS. WE ALSO HAD STRONG ADDITIONAL NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING OCT (77.390),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $3.80) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS// SPEC SHORTS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8860 CONTRACTS // WE HAVE REGISTERED A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 30.202 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (77.390 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $3.80
WE HAD -850 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8860 CONTRACTS OR 886,000 OZ OR 27.558 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
24,881 notices 2,488,100 77.390 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
total dealer deposit 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits nil oz
customer withdrawals:2
ii) Out of Brinks 675.17 (21 kilobars)
iii) Out of Loomis 34,533.718.718 oz
total: 35,108.888 oz
total in tonnes: 1.09 tonnes
Adjustments: 2// customer to dealer
i)Out of Loomis 7426.881 oz
ii)Out of Brinks 385.817 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCT we have an oi of 1487 contracts having GAINED 408 contracts . We had 3 contracts
filed on THURSDAY, so we GAINED A HUGE 411 contracts or an additional 41100 oz will stand in this active delivery month of Oct. We no doubt have resumed queue jumping and gold standing will increase until the end of October.
November SHOCKINGLY ADDED A MONSTROUS 207 contracts to stand at 3990 (WE ARE GOING TO HAVE AN EXTRAORDINARILY LARGE NOV.GOLD DELIVERY . I AM INCREASING WHAT WILL STAND TO AROUND 12 TONNES OF GOLD.)
December GAINED 151 contracts UP to 360,703
We had 1487 notice(s) filed today for 148700 oz FOR THE OCT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 113 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1487 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (24,881) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (OCT 1487 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1487 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,488,100 OZ OR 77.390 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:
No of notices filed so far (24,881) x 100 oz+ (1487) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1487} x 100 oz} which equals 2,488,100 oz standing OR 77.390 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of OCTOBER.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 77.390 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR OCT (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH)
WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM TOMORROW ONWARD UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 716 x 5,000 oz = 3,580,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(27) and the number of notices served upon today 27 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT./2022 contract month: 716 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (27) – number of notices served upon today (27) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates 3,580,000 oz. .
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES
OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES
OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES
OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES
SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES
SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES
TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 925.20 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: AWITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//
OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.
OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/
OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//
OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///
OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//
OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//
OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//
Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ
OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/
OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617 MILLION OZ//
OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/
CLOSING INVENTORY 484.367 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1.PETER SCHIFF
end
2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz
3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Modi’s plan is the exactly how Einstein defines insanity. Try the same modus operandi hoping for a different outcome.
He has tried this several times and each time, he has failed. Indian citizens wil never give up their gold
(Bloomberg./comex)
Modi plan to unlock India’s gold gets new focus amid near-record trade gap
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-10-27 23:38Section: Daily Dispatches
By Adrija Chatterjee, Swansy Afonso, and Shruti Srivastava Bloomberg News Thursday, Octrober 27, 2022
India’s wide trade deficit is highlighting a curious government plan to rein in the gap: Getting people to hand over their private stashes of gold jewelry.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government have been trying to convince gold-obsessed citizens — who collectively own the biggest private holding of bullion in the world — to deposit their treasures with banks and earn interest.
The plan, which dates back seven years, has been a resounding flop, luring only about 25 tons of the 25,000 the World Gold Council estimates is held by households and temples in the south Asian nation.
But now, the impetus behind it — to stem India’s massive gold imports and reduce the trade deficit by melting down the metal already in the country and reselling it — is newly relevant as the rupee slumps and the trade gap hovers near the record high it hit in July.
“If you can recycle the existing gold back home, then reliance on gold imports comes down and it will reduce pressure on the current account deficit,” said Madhavi Arora, lead economist with Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. “And you can also monetize the gold as an instrument to raise funds.” …
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.2508
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.2752
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 66.98 PTS OR 2.25%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 564.88 OR 3.66%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 248.04PTS OR 0.88%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 110.64/Euro FALLS TO 0.99613
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.239!!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 147,42/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.110%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.188%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.15%…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.45//
3j Gold at $1648.95//silver at: 19.28 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 21/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 61.51//
3m oil into the 88 dollar handle for WTI and 96 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 147.42DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9961–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9934well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.000% UP 6 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.128% UP 3 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,62…GETTTING DANGEROUS
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.4850%
end
Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Slide After Tech Wreck Goes 0 For 5
FRIDAY, OCT 28, 2022 – 08:05 AM
With the core of tech earnings season now behind us, FAAMG goes 0 for 5 on earnings as lackluster earnings from the group this week dampened sentiment and underscored the impact of the Fed’s tightening regime. While macro data didn’t help the cause – the GDP report showed the US economy rebounded after two quarterly contractions (all driven by net exports)and briefly assuaged concerns of an imminent recession, consumer spending remains under pressure because of persistent inflation – after the bell, AMZN out with an extremely disappointing miss which sent the stock down as much as 21%, followed by AAPL with a low quality beat driven by As such, Goldman’s Michael Nocerino writes that this morning is going to be harder to compartmentalize these prints (like we have with MSFT, GOOG, META) given AMZN and AAPL make up 10% weighting of the S&P.
And sure enough, the Nasdaq 100 was poised to extend a $675 billion wipeout of the past two days as disappointing earnings prompted a liquidation spree amid the deteriorating profit outlook. Nasdaq 100 futures slumped 1% by 7:30 a.m. in New York, set to trade lower for a third day as reports from Amazon.com and Apple hurt sentiment. Contracts on the S&P 500 were down 0.4%, having dropped as much as 1% earlier. And yet, despite recent weakness, the S&P 500 is set for a second week of gains for the first time since August, amid growing speculation the Fed will be forced to pivot soon. The 10-year benchmark Treasury yield surpassed 4% as a rally in government bonds began to fizzle. Government bonds this week were buoyed by hopes that policymakers are preparing a downshift in aggressive rate hikes amid softer economic data. The dollar collapse, which defined much of this week amid speculation of coordinated intervention, has also started to crack and the dollar index is sharply higher today after the yen tumbled following the BOJ’s announcement to maintain YCC and not change monetary policy for a long time, despite some half-baked rumors to the contrary.
Amazon shares plunged 14% in premarket after the tech giant projected its slowest holiday quarter growth in history.
Meanwhile, Apple edged higher after posting weaker-than-expected iPhone and services sales for its latest quarter, marring an otherwise upbeat report. The combination of weaker earnings and higher interest rates is making technology stocks look increasingly unappealing to investors. The sector could face more pressure ahead as valuations continue to look elevated, Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note.
“There are now two stock markets — it’s increasingly important to look at the equal-weighted S&P as mega-cap tech (which dominates the normal SPX) enters an extended period of underperformance,” Vital Knowledge analyst Adam Crisafulli wrote in a note. “We continue to think tech is entering a period similar to the ‘99/’00 dotcom boom and bust.”
“These tech results will likely drive broader sentiment down,” said Columbia Threadneedle’s global equity portfolio manager Natasha Ebtehadj on Bloomberg TV. “Apart from tech, other earnings have held up relatively well so hopefully that will provide some support to markets.”
“We are starting to see some companies’ bleeding in terms of forecasts and unfortunately we’re starting to see the big caps in the market disappointing,” Banque Syz CIO Charles-Henry Monchau said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Earnings for us is still a headwind.”
Besides the tech rout, bank stocks were also lower in premarket trading Friday, putting them on track to snap a five-day winning streak. In corporate news, Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, confirmed that it’s an equity investor in Elon Musk’s $44 billion acquisition of Twitter. Despite – or perhaps thanks to – Marko Kolanovic’ latest ringing endorsement of all things China, Hong Kong-listed peers plummeting and on course to end a three-day winning streak. Here are some other premarket movers:
Intel rises as much as 5.6% in premarket trading on Friday, after the chipmaker said it was aggressively addressing costs, with a target of $3 billion of reductions in 2023. The chipmaker, and fellow tech companies like Amazon and Meta, are being pressed to wind back spending after years of bulking up.
Pinterest jumped almost 10% in US premarket trading, as the social media company’s results offered analysts respite amid the “wreckage” in the advertising sector demonstrated this week by disappointing earnings from Meta Platforms and Alphabet. Analysts raised their price targets on the stock following Pinterest’s revenue beat and outlook for the fourth-quarter, despite threats from a darkening macroeconomic environment.
US cloud stocks could come under pressure on Friday, after Amazon reported sales for its AWS cloud unit that missed analyst estimates, stoking worries that other providers could also see weakness as enterprise customers pull back on spending.
Core Scientific shares slide 4.9% in US premarket trading, after the bitcoin miner slumped 78% on Thursday in its worst day on record after saying it may seek bankruptcy protection. Barclays downgraded the stock to equal- weight from overweight on solvency worries.
Gilead Sciences shares gain 4.8% in premarket trading after the biopharmaceutical company boosted its guidance for adjusted earnings per share and its 3Q earnings came ahead of analyst estimates. Analysts noted the strong performances from Gilead’s core HIV and oncology businesses, as well as the company’s Covid drug Veklury.
Mullen Automotive drops as much 10% in US premarket trading, with shares in the electric car startup set to ease further after surging more than 40% this week amid heavy mentions on social media and positive sentiment around its I-GO electric vehicle.
In Europe, the Stoxx 50 fell 1.1% with France’s CAC 40 outperforming peers, dropping 0.7%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 1.4%. Miners, tech and real estate are the worst performing sectors in Europe. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
OMV shares rise as much as 10%, hitting the highest since July as analysts say 3Q results looks robust operationally.
Kongsberg gains as much as 7.4% after it reported Ebitda for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
Danske Bank A/S shares rise as much as 5.5%, the most in more than a decade after the lender said it’s close to resolving its money- laundering scandal at an estimated cost of 15.5 billion kroner ($2.1 billion).
Electrolux rises as much as 5.5%, flipping from earlier losses of as much as 5.9%, after the Swedish appliance maker published 3Q results weighed down by poor sales in North America, but offset by a new cost-savings package that includes cutting up to 5,000 staff.
Credit Suisse shares gained as much as 4.7% in Zurich after a record one-day drop on Thursday, when it slumped 19% following the presentation of its new strategic plan including a capital raise and a carve out of its investment banking business.
Natwest fell as much as 9.4% after reporting costs that were higher than expected in the latest hit to the sector as a mortgage crisis looms and a recession looks likely.
Universal Music shares drop as much as 8.5%, the most since June, with analysts saying there were some “weak spots” in the record company’s results and positives around its outlook may already have been priced in.
Valeo shares fall as much as 8% with analysts flagging underperformance for the auto-parts firm.
STMicro shares fall as much as 6.6%, the most since May, after the chipmaker guided fourth-quarter revenue slightly below average analyst estimates.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities were poised for a third weekly drop as Chinese shares slumped, offsetting an earlier reprieve from declines in US Treasury yields and the dollar. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.8% on Friday, on track to end the week with losses. Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong plunged again to 2008 lows, snapping a three-day rally, after the party congress dashed hopes for more market-friendly policies. Read: China Stocks in Worst Ever Post-Congress Rout as Gloom Persists President Xi Jinping’s tighter grip on China has “caused some investors to finally throw in the towel, with the most dramatic impact on the technology stocks,” saidJonathan Pines, head of Asia ex-Japan at Federated Hermes in a note. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks edged lower after the Bank of Japan stood by its ultra-low interest
rates. Singapore bucked the region’s trend to rise more than 1%. Friday marked the busiest day for Asia earnings this results season. Chinese automaker BYD Co., Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. — the world’s largest bank by assets — and Japanese electronics firm Keyence Corp. are among the 239 MSCI Asia Pacific Index members that reported earnings. Stocks have rebounded this week after a slew of dovish signals from central bankers revived hopes that the pace of policy tightening will slow. Traders will watch for more clues at the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, where it is expected to deliver a fourth-straight 75 basis point hike.
Japanese equities closed lower after the Bank of Japan maintained its easy monetary policy. Stocks had opened lower amid concern over tech earnings at home and in the US, but were trading little changed around midday before the BOJ’s announcement. The Topix fell 0.3% to close at 1,899.05, while the Nikkei declined 0.9% to 27,105.20. The yen was trading around 146.4 per dollar, swinging between gains and losses. Volume on the Prime market jumped to 5.77 trillion yen, the highest since the market reorganization, as passive funds adjusted holdings on the latest rebalancing of the Topix. Hoya Corp. contributed the most to the Topix decline, decreasing 4.4% after disappointing earnings. Out of 2,166 stocks in the index, 641 rose and 1,448 fell, while 77 were unchanged. The BOJ again maintained its ultra-low rates even as other central banks are tightening. While this divergence had driven the yen’s weakness this year, the currency has rallied almost 4% since last week, from a three-decade low that triggered suspected intervention from Japan. “If the BOJ is lucky, the dollar will weaken from current levels, and the depreciation in the yen will remain at a reasonable level,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Group Holdings, wrote in a note. “Otherwise, we could see the dollar-yen spike above the 150 level despite the BOJ’s direct interventions, which do nothing more than burning money.”
Australian stocks also fell: the S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 0.9% to close at 6,785.70, ending a four-day winning streak, dragged by iron ore miners including BHP Group after the steelmaking raw material extended its rout to the lowest in more than two years. Materials, technology and healthcare sectors led the benchmark index’s drop on Friday. Still, the index made a weekly gain of 1.6%. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index climbed 0.3% to 11,129.53
Stocks in India advanced for the second consecutive week, moving closer to their record levels seen last year, helped by a rally in financial companies amid robust earnings. The S&P BSE Sensex Index rose 0.3% to 59,959.85 in Mumbai, its highest level since Sept. 14. The NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by an equal measure. For the week, the indexes have risen more than 1% and are about 3% short of their record levels seen a year ago. Twelve of the 19 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by metal companies. For the week, auto firms were among best performers as vehicle sales picked-up during the ongoing festive season. Corporate earnings for September quarter have been supportive of the rally in Indian markets. Out of the 23 Nifty companies, which have so far reported earnings, 16 have either matched or beat the consensus view, while five missed. Top lenders including ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, have reported higher-than-expected profits, helped by rising credit demand.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended yesterday’s bounce from a five-week low as the greenback advanced 0.4$ versus all of its Group-of-10 peers ahead of US inflation data. EUR and DKK are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, JPY and AUD underperform; yen trades at ~147 per dollar.
The yen was the worst G-10 performer, snapping a three-day advance, as the Bank of Japan stood by its ultra-low interest rates amid fresh government support, pushing back against lingering market speculation it will adjust policy as it continues to predict inflation will cool below 2% next year
Australia’s dollar was also among the worst performers as commodity prices slumped. The nation’s sovereign bonds rallied as it caught up with events in Europe and the US on Thursday
The euro fell for a second day on the back of broad-based US dollar strength. European bonds extended a drop after French inflation data for October came in hotter than expected. Front-end bund yields rose by around 10bps, while the long end added around 7bps. BTPs added 10-12 bps across the curve.
In rates, the Treasury curve bear-flattened, pushing yields 2-7bps higher as yields trade near session highs after erasing late-Thursday gains that coincided with Amazon’s after-market plunge. Treasuries track bigger losses in bunds, where German curve aggressively bear-flattens as ECB hike premium is added into front-end. Economic data are focal point of US session, including personal income/spending inflation gauge and University of Michigan sentiment. US yields are cheaper by as much as 10bp in belly of the curve, flattening 5s30s by 7bp to as low as -6.2bp; 10-year yields around 4%, cheaper by 8bp on the day with bunds cheaper by additional 6bp in the sector. German curve bear-flattens as 10-year yields rise 14bps to 2.1%; 2s10s, 5s30s spreads are tighter by 2bp and 3bp on the day as front- end and belly yields are cheaper by 17bp on outright basis. Italian BTP spread widens to Germany; Italy inflation hit an all-time high of 12.8% in October.
In commodities, oil pared its weekly gain as investors shied away from risky assets on a dimming outlook for China and the wider global economy. West Texas Intermediate slid below $88 a barrel. Moving to metals, the complex is once again under USD-induced pressure with precious metals unable to derive any substantial allure from their traditional haven status; base metals hit on sentiment, particularly APAC weakness in China. Spot gold falls roughly $12 to trade near $1,651/oz.
Bitcoin is under modest pressure though resides in narrow ranges and despite the DXY reclaiming 111.00, Bitcoin still holds onto the USD 20k handle.
Looking ahead, today’s data line up in the US will include Q3 employment cost index, which as Nikileaks just informed us…
… will be closely watched by the Fed so a big beat here and futures will tumble even more. We also get, September personal income, personal spending, PCE deflator and pending home sales. In Europe, Germany and France will release Q3 GDP and October CPI figures, with the latter also due for Italy. Other indicators will include consumer spending and PPI for France, PPI and hourly wages for Italy and economic and industrial confidence for the Eurozone. The earnings list will be lighter than in previous days but will feature key commodity companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Equinor and Eni. Other notable reporters will include AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Sanofi, Porsche, Airbus, Volkswagen, Colgate-Palmolive, BBVA and LyondellBasell.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 3,790.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 406.72
MXAP down 1.7% to 135.55
MXAPJ down 1.9% to 432.30
Nikkei down 0.9% to 27,105.20
Topix down 0.3% to 1,899.05
Hang Seng Index down 3.7% to 14,863.06
Shanghai Composite down 2.2% to 2,915.93
Sensex little changed at 59,792.78
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 6,785.72
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,268.40
Brent Futures down 0.7% to $96.30/bbl
Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,651.18
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.31% to 110.93
German 10Y yield up 4% to 2.04%
Euro down 0.2% to $0.9946
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
As China’s hovers near the weak end of a daily 2% trading band against the dollar, the specter of extreme measures — however unlikely — is growing. Already, there are signs that China is intervening in foreign-exchange markets, like Japan has done. A one-time revaluation and restricting the yuan’s range are other major tools
The ECB’s monetary policy will have to move into restrictive territory to get inflation under control, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said
The ECB is under no obligation to repeat the 75 basis-point interest-rate increases enacted at the last two meetings, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said
The ECB will continue to lift borrowing costs as it steps up its battle against record euro-area inflation, and remain flexible about the magnitude of individual steps, according to Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle
The ECB needs to deliver a “substantial” increase in interest rates at its final meeting of the year in December, despite a strong likelihood of a technical recession in the euro area, according to Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus
Hopes that the euro zone can stave off a recession got a boost as Germany defied expectations by reporting another quarter of economic growth, though momentum slowed dramatically in France and Spain
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks traded mostly lower but off worst levels following a mixed lead from the US. ASX 200 was pressured by its IT sector following the Meta-induced losses seen on Wall Street. Nikkei 225 drifted off worst levels heading into the BoJ announcement but saw little action on the return from lunch break after the BoJ maintained its policy unchanged whilst upping its inflation forecasts across the board. KOSPI conformed to the broader risk tone, although losses were shallower than peers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened lower with the tech sector underperforming after the downbeat sectoral lead from the US, whilst NY Times reported that the Biden administration is weighing further controls on Chinese technology. Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK) Q3 2022 (CNY): Net 68.5bln, NIM 1.96%, NPL ration 1.40%. ICBC (1398 HK) 9M 2022 (CNY): net profit 265.82bln, NPL 1.4% at end-Sept.
Top Asian News
China Names Beijing Mayor Chen Jining As Shanghai Party Boss
BOJ Keeps Ultra-Low Rates as Team Japan Sticks to Policy Path
BOJ Changes Bond Purchase Plan for First Time During a Quarter
Russia Export Windfall Finds Sanctions Haven in Yuan, Quasi-Bank
Iron Ore on Track for Longest Run of Weekly Losses Since 2014
European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%, deriving direction from downbeat APAC and US after-market trade. Within the region, sectors are predominantly in the red with Tech dented amid US after-market updates while Basic Resources slips after Glencore’s downbeat production report. Stateside, the NQ -1.3% is the clear underperformer amid pressure from the below after-market earnings; ES -0.8%, pressured though magnitudes a touch more contained ahead of key US price data. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) – Q3 2022 (USD): EPS 0.28 (exp. 0.22), Revenue 127.1bln (exp. 127.45bln); Q4 22 revenue view 140-148bln (exp. 155.150bln). AWS: 20.54bln (exp. 21.191bln). Click here for details. CFO said the Co. is preparing for what could be a slower growth period. Co. is being very careful on its hiring and is seeing weakness in Europe relative to the US. -13% in the pre-market. Apple Inc (AAPL) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 1.29 (exp. 1.27), Revenue 90.15bln (exp. 88.90bln) Q4 product sales: iPhone: 42.63bln (exp. 43.21bln) iPad: 7.17bln (exp. 7.94bln). Mac: 11.51bln (exp. 9.36bln). Click here for details. CFO says total company revenue will decline in Q4; sees nearly 10ppt negative Y/Y impact from FX. +0.5% in the pre-market. Intel Corp (INTC) – Q3 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.59 (exp. 0.32), Revenue 15.3bln (exp. 15.25bln). Click here for details. +4.5% in the pre-market
Top European News
European Stocks Fall Amid Earnings Flurry as Tech, Miners Drop
UK Lenders Face Biggest Mortgage Test Since Financial Crisis
Appliance Maker Electrolux to Cut Up to 8% of 50,000 Staff
Saab Ramping Up Capacity Ahead of Sweden’s NATO Membership
DXY extends recovery gains to probe 111.000 and this time thanks in large part to the Yen as BoJ sticks to ultra-accommodation, dovish guidance and passive role in terms of intervention; USD/JPY eyes 148.00 from around 146.00 at one stage and near 145.00 yesterday
Aussie and Kiwi rattled by risk aversion and their US rival’s revival, AUD/USD just over 0.6400 and NZD/USD under 0.5800
Euro cushioned by strong inflation data and some hawkish ECB rhetoric, but capped at parity vs the Buck and more hefty option expiries
Yuan undermined by a weak PBoC fix and losses in Chinese tech stocks on reports of further US controls
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1698 vs exp. 7.1638 (prev. 7.1570); weakest Yuan fix since Feb 2008.
China’s CBIRC says those who sell the Yuan now will regret it, via Bloomberg citing a report. China has a resilient economy and its positive long-term trend will continue.
Fixed Income
EGBs are under broad pressure as ECB speakers come out in full hawkish force alongside hotter than expected regional CPI data, ex-Spain.
Specifically, the Bund has been pushed below 139.00 and the accompanying 10yr yield to above 2.10% while BTPs are similarly pressured though the spread vs. Germany has narrowed to around 200bps.
Gilts are bucking the trend somewhat and retain a slight positive bias, with attention turning to next week’s BoE where the magnitude is centered around 75bp vs 100bp+ in recent weeks.
Stateside, USTs are in-fitting with EGBs ahead of their own price metrics via PCE Price Index this afternoon, with yields elevated as such though the curve is a touch flatter.
Commodities
The complex looks set to end the week with another session of relatively limited explicit newsflow and as such participants focus remains on broader macro developments and pricing.
Currently, the crude benchmarks are pressured by around 1% or just shy of USD 1.00/bbl on the session though are still set to end the week with upside of just over USD 2.00/bbl, at the time of writing.
Moving to metals, the complex is once again under USD-induced pressure with precious metals unable to derive any substantial allure from their traditional haven status; base metals hit on sentiment, particularly APAC weakness in China.
Central Banks
BoJ maintained its policy unchanged as expected with rates at -0.10% and QQE with yield curve control maintained to target 10yr JGB yield at around 0%, via a unanimous vote, whilst also maintaining dovish forward guidance, as expected.
BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report saw Core CPI upgraded across the board, but the FY23 and FY24 forecasts were below the BoJ’s 2% target, both at 1.6% (upgraded to 1.4% and 1.3% respectively), whilst warning that the risks to prices are skewed to the upside. Real GDP growth was downgraded for FY22 and FY23 but upgraded for FY24. The BoJ said there is a need to watch FX and its impact on the economy. The central bank also said it will make changes to the way it buys ETFs from Dec 1st, the Bank will take now into account the holding cost of each ETFs and select those with the lowest trust fee ratio in making purchases.
BoJ Governor Kuroda (post-meeting press conference) says must be vigilant to the impact of FX moves; CPI to undershoot 2% from next year; will not hesitate to ease monpol. if needed. Click here for full details.
BoJ Quarterly Schedule of Outright Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds; to increase frequency of purchases in November.
ECB’s Simkus says QT discussion in December should be about start dates and amounts, via Reuters.
ECB’s Villeroy says the ECB will bring inflation back to 2% in 2-3 years; no obligation to raise rates by 75bps at the December meeting.
ECB’s Kazmir says rates will rise in December and in early 2023, crossing neutral like a ‘runaway train’, must get rates into restrictive territory. A risk that Eurozone inflation will remain higher for longer, and remains above target. Risk of a recession in the Eurozone are growing.
ECB’s Muller says they must decide on how to gradually cut bond holdings, via Bloomberg; rates will continue to increase in the near term, they are still now and are not restrictive.
Geopolitcs
US will soon provide additional military assistance to Ukraine, according to the White House spokesperson, US is not seeing any signs of Russia making preparations to use a “dirty bomb”, via CNN.
Biden administration is weighing further controls on Chinese technology, according to NYT.
France and Germany “agreed that recent American state subsidy plans represent market-distorting measures that aim to convince companies to shift their production to the US… and that is a problem they want the EU to address.”, according to Politico sources.
North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles that landed outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone, according to South Korea.
US Event Calendar
08:30: 3Q Employment Cost Index, est. 1.2%, prior 1.3%
08:30: Sept. Real Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
Sept. Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
Sept. Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
Sept. PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
Sept. PCE Deflator YoY, est. 6.3%, prior 6.2%
Sept. PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 5.2%, prior 4.9%
Sept. PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6%
10:00: Sept. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -4.0%, prior -2.0%
Pending Home Sales YoY, prior -22.5%
10:00: Oct. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 59.6, prior 59.8
Oct. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 65.0, prior 65.3
Oct. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 56.0, prior 56.2
Oct. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 5.1%, prior 5.1%
Oct. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I think we can now officially call this the 6th pivot anticipation trade over the last 12 months. What started out as a WSJ Timiraos tweet last Friday, got momentum from weaker housing data, moved onto a dovish BoC, and then reached the ECB yesterday. Although they hiked 75bps, they signalled a more dovish tone than expected. So much so that our economists now think they will hike 50bps in December relative to their previous 75bps forecasts. They still think the terminal rate will hit 3% but the profile is much more uncertain now. Their base case is a further 50bps in February and then two successive 25bps hikes to get to 3%. The BoJ maintained the dovish flavour of the last week, as expected, keeping policy rates unchanged and its yield curve control program in place.
Back to the ECB, to quote DB’s Mark Wall from his review piece “the press conference had elements that leaned dovish”. These included the increased probability of recession, the lagged impact of rapid monetary tightening and the absence of reference to “several” more hikes. Other comments pushed back as too dovish an interpretation, such as the emphasis on uncertainty, the more inflationary wording on wages and the fact that even after this hike the Governing Council was no closer to defining the terminal rate.” There’s lots more in the piece including on all the TLTRO news.
All in all, this further amplified the dovish rates trade since Friday. If only I had a fraction of the power to move global markets as WSJ’s Nick Timiraos. In terms of the highlights yesterday, markets took around 25bps of cuts out of terminal ECB rates to now around 2.6%. This put pressure on the euro (-1.16%) which fell below parity again as 2y yields weakened across major European markets, including Germany (-17.0bps), France (-9.8bps) and Italy (-31.0bps). 10y yields fell as well, with periphery bonds (BTPs -32.1bps) outperforming the ones in Western Europe (Bunds -15.1bps and OATs -18.3bps). In their recap of the meeting (link here) our European rates strategists tied the Italian outperformance to the communications that principles around QT would be pursued in December, and that ahead of any implementation, which was more dovish than what was anticipated going into the meeting. They also note that BTPs outperformed from the generally dovish tone that defined the entire meeting.
So this sets us up very nicely for Powell and the Fed next week. What could have been a bog standard incremental 75bps now becomes a “will they or won’t they” endorse the pivot party? I’d imagine the most dovish Powell could be is to say that December’s decision between 75bps and 50bps will be data dependent. I’m not sure he can go further than that with two CPI and NFP reports in the interim.
This dovish global move this week has taken the headline pressure off a poor week for US tech earnings with Meta falling -24.56% yesterday after the prior night’s results. Last night it was the turn of Apple and Amazon. The former slightly disappointed analysts on weaker iPhone and services revenues and, after flitting between gains and losses, actually managed to finish after-hours trading +0.38% higher on offsetting strength in other business lines including Mac sales. Apple is proving a stand out, however, as the latter was a bit of a shocker with company forecasts for the lucrative holiday period much lower than expected. Shares fell a dramatic -12.98% after hours. If sustained today that would drop it to a market cap of below $1tn. In November last year we were as high as $1.9tn, so quite a fall to say the least. This has left S&P and Nasdaq futures down -0.44% and -0.69% overnight.
Another big macro event yesterday was the release of Q3 GDP in the US and the print came in at +2.6%, above the 2.4% consensus estimate and a strong rebound from -0.6% in Q2. However, the lion’s share of gains in growth came from net exports and demand-related components showed muted growth. In other data releases, a downbeat tone came from a miss on durable goods orders (+0.4% vs +0.6% expected) although initial jobless claims came in a touch lower than expected (217k v 220k). This morning, all eyes will be on GDP and inflation data from Germany and France along with Italian CPI data.
For US bonds, stronger-than-expected economic rebound didn’t fully outweigh the passthrough from the dovish ECB, with yields declining by -13.0bps on the 2y and -8.4bps on the 10y. Net net that took out -10.7bps off the peak Fed Funds futures rate priced in for next May and -27.7bps since Timiraos’ tweet when terminal pricing had breached 5%. Nevertheless, the dollar index was still up +0.81% for the day as the Fed is currently being out-pivoted by other global central banks.
Heading into big tech earnings after the close, stocks gyrated between gains and losses, but ultimately slumped into the close with the S&P 500 finishing down by -0.61%. Meta’s outsized impact on tech was seen in Nasdaq’s underperformance (-1.63%) after the stock lost -24.56% during trading hours and the share price closed at its worst level since early 2016. Sector-wise, industrials led the pack (+1.14%) on strong earnings (Caterpillar gained +7.71% and Honeywell climbed +3.27%) with financials close behind (+0.75%) on a steeper curve whilst, on the other hand, IT (-1.52%) and communications (-4.12%) weighed down on the S&P 500. It was thus unsurprising that despite a big loss on the day for the index, 55% of its members actually finished higher by the close since the two sectors together take up nearly a third of the index by weight. Along with Caterpillar and Honeywell, we got an earnings beat from McDonald’s, who’s share price climbed +3.31%.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 (-0.03%) closed nearly flat ahead of today’s major data releases and despite the tailwinds from falling European yields. Showing growth concerns, cyclical sectors like IT (-1.76%), materials (-0.87%) and industrials (-0.47%) were a major drag on performance together with healthcare (-1.13%) and consumer discretionary stocks (-0.65%). So energy (+3.76%), real estate (+2.56%) and utilities (+1.07%) did most of the heavy lifting to keep the index afloat for the day. In data, we also had a tailwind from an upward surprise in Germany’s consumer confidence, which rose to -41.9 from -42.5 (vs consensus of -42.3). Data from Italy was more mixed, with a miss on consumer confidence (90.1 vs 93.5 expected) but a beat on the manufacturing gauge (100.4 vs 100).
Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower this morning due to weaker earnings posted by Wall Street’s tech giants. As I type, the Hang Seng (-1.91%) is the largest underperformer followed by the CSI (-1.27%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.83%) and the Nikkei (-0.35%). Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.09%) is swinging between gains and losses.
As mentioned, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continued its dovish tone, keeping interest rates unchanged due to weak growth prospects, while keeping YCC in place. In its quarterly review of its projections, the BOJ mentioned that it sees core consumer inflation to hit 2.9% for FY2022 and 1.6% the following year. It projects inflation to hit 1.6% in fiscal 2024.
Ahead of the BOJ’s rate announcement, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida unveiled a new economic stimulus package that will include 29.1 trillion yen ($199 billion) in government spending. The overall size of the package will likely reach 71.6 trillion yen, when spending by municipalities and companies is taken into account.
Staying on Japan, Tokyo CPI inflation rose sharply to +3.5% y/y in October (v/s +3.3% expected), picking up from +2.8% increase in September. At the same time, the core inflation hit +3.4%, the highest level since 1989 while sharply accelerating from September’s +2.8% gain, indicating broadening inflationary pressure. Separately, Japan’s jobless rate surprisingly rose to 2.6% in September from previous month’s 2.5% while the Job-to-applicant ratio improved for the ninth consecutive month to a 2-1/2-year high of 1.34 in September from 1.32 in August.
Looking ahead, today’s data line up in the US will include Q3 employment cost index, September personal income, personal spending, PCE deflator and pending home sales. In Europe, Germany and France will release Q3 GDP and October CPI figures, with the latter also due for Italy. Other indicators will include consumer spending and PPI for France, PPI and hourly wages for Italy and economic and industrial confidence for the Eurozone. The earnings list will be lighter than in previous days but will feature key commodity companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Equinor and Eni. Other notable reporters will include AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Sanofi, Porsche, Airbus, Volkswagen, Colgate-Palmolive, BBVA and LyondellBasell.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Sentiment slips following a downbeat APAC session with AMZN -13% post-earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, OCT 28, 2022 – 06:33 AM
European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%, deriving direction from downbeat APAC and US after-market trade.
Stateside, the NQ -1.3% is the clear underperformer amid pressure from after-market earnings; AMZN -13%
DXY extends recovery gains to probe 111.000 and this time thanks in large part to the Yen; EUR cushioned by inflation prints
EGBs are under broad pressure as ECB speakers come out in full hawkish force alongside hotter-than-expected regional CPI data
Commodity complex is once again being dictated by broader market action amid relatively light-specific newsflow
Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI Prelim., US PCE. Earnings from Chevron, Exxon, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, LyondellBasell
European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%, deriving direction from downbeat APAC and US after-market trade.
Within the region, sectors are predominantly in the red with Tech dented amid US after-market updates while Basic Resources slips after Glencore’s downbeat production report.
Stateside, the NQ -1.3% is the clear underperformer amid pressure from the below after-market earnings; ES -0.8%, pressured though magnitudes a touch more contained ahead of key US price data.
Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) – Q3 2022 (USD): EPS 0.28 (exp. 0.22), Revenue 127.1bln (exp. 127.45bln); Q4 22 revenue view 140-148bln (exp. 155.150bln). AWS: 20.54bln (exp. 21.191bln). Click here for details. CFO said the Co. is preparing for what could be a slower growth period. Co. is being very careful on its hiring and is seeing weakness in Europe relative to the US. -13% in the pre-market
Apple Inc (AAPL) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 1.29 (exp. 1.27), Revenue 90.15bln (exp. 88.90bln) Q4 product sales: iPhone: 42.63bln (exp. 43.21bln) iPad: 7.17bln (exp. 7.94bln). Mac: 11.51bln (exp. 9.36bln). Click here for details. CFO says total company revenue will decline in Q4; sees nearly 10ppt negative Y/Y impact from FX. +0.5% in the pre-market
Intel Corp (INTC) – Q3 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.59 (exp. 0.32), Revenue 15.3bln (exp. 15.25bln). Click here for details. +4.5% in the pre-market
Over 300 US groups have warned that rail strikes could shut down the entire freight rail system and have urged President Biden’s involvement, according to a letter cited by Reuters.
DXY extends recovery gains to probe 111.000 and this time thanks in large part to the Yen as BoJ sticks to ultra-accommodation, dovish guidance and passive role in terms of intervention; USD/JPY eyes 148.00 from around 146.00 at one stage and near 145.00 yesterday
Aussie and Kiwi rattled by risk aversion and their US rival’s revival, AUD/USD just over 0.6400 and NZD/USD under 0.5800
Euro cushioned by strong inflation data and some hawkish ECB rhetoric, but capped at parity vs the Buck and more hefty option expiries
Yuan undermined by a weak PBoC fix and losses in Chinese tech stocks on reports of further US controls
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1698 vs exp. 7.1638 (prev. 7.1570); weakest Yuan fix since Feb 2008.
China’s CBIRC says those who sell the Yuan now will regret it, via Bloomberg citing a report. China has a resilient economy and its positive long-term trend will continue.
EGBs are under broad pressure as ECB speakers come out in full hawkish force alongside hotter than expected regional CPI data, ex-Spain.
Specifically, the Bund has been pushed below 139.00 and the accompanying 10yr yield to above 2.10% while BTPs are similarly pressured though the spread vs. Germany has narrowed to around 200bps.
Gilts are bucking the trend somewhat and retain a slight positive bias, with attention turning to next week’s BoE where the magnitude is centered around 75bp vs 100bp+ in recent weeks.
Stateside, USTs are in-fitting with EGBs ahead of their own price metrics via PCE Price Index this afternoon, with yields elevated as such though the curve is a touch flatter.
The complex looks set to end the week with another session of relatively limited explicit newsflow and as such participants focus remains on broader macro developments and pricing.
Currently, the crude benchmarks are pressured by around 1% or just shy of USD 1.00/bbl on the session though are still set to end the week with upside of just over USD 2.00/bbl, at the time of writing.
Moving to metals, the complex is once again under USD-induced pressure with precious metals unable to derive any substantial allure from their traditional haven status; base metals hit on sentiment, particularly APAC weakness in China.
BoJ maintained its policy unchanged as expected with rates at -0.10% and QQE with yield curve control maintained to target 10yr JGB yield at around 0%, via a unanimous vote, whilst also maintaining dovish forward guidance, as expected.
BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report saw Core CPI upgraded across the board, but the FY23 and FY24 forecasts were below the BoJ’s 2% target, both at 1.6% (upgraded to 1.4% and 1.3% respectively), whilst warning that the risks to prices are skewed to the upside. Real GDP growth was downgraded for FY22 and FY23 but upgraded for FY24. The BoJ said there is a need to watch FX and its impact on the economy. The central bank also said it will make changes to the way it buys ETFs from Dec 1st, the Bank will take now into account the holding cost of each ETFs and select those with the lowest trust fee ratio in making purchases.
BoJ Governor Kuroda (post-meeting press conference) says must be vigilant to the impact of FX moves; CPI to undershoot 2% from next year; will not hesitate to ease monpol. if needed. Click here for full details.
BoJ Quarterly Schedule of Outright Purchases of Japanese Government Bonds; to increase frequency of purchases in November.
ECB’s Simkus says QT discussion in December should be about start dates and amounts, via Reuters.
ECB’s Villeroy says the ECB will bring inflation back to 2% in 2-3 years; no obligation to raise rates by 75bps at the December meeting.
ECB’s Kazmir says rates will rise in December and in early 2023, crossing neutral like a ‘runaway train’, must get rates into restrictive territory. A risk that Eurozone inflation will remain higher for longer, and remains above target. Risk of a recession in the Eurozone are growing.
ECB’s Muller says they must decide on how to gradually cut bond holdings, via Bloomberg; rates will continue to increase in the near term, they are still now and are not restrictive.
UK PM Sunak reportedly explores tax rises and spending cuts of up to GBP 50bln, according to FT. The Telegraph says that the Chancellor Sunak is drawing up plans to expand the windfall tax on energy companies in an attempt to balance the books.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Oct) 11.0% (Prev. 10.1%); MM (Oct) 1.2% (Prev. 1.8%)
Italian CPI (EU Norm) Prelim. YY (Oct) 12.8% vs. Exp. 9.9% (Prev. 9.4%); MM (Oct) 4.0% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.6%)
Bitcoin is under modest pressure though resides in narrow ranges and despite the DXY reclaiming 111.00, Bitcoin still holds onto the USD 20k handle.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
US will soon provide additional military assistance to Ukraine, according to the White House spokesperson, US is not seeing any signs of Russia making preparations to use a “dirty bomb”, via CNN.
OTHER
Biden administration is weighing further controls on Chinese technology, according to NYT.
France and Germany “agreed that recent American state subsidy plans represent market-distorting measures that aim to convince companies to shift their production to the US… and that is a problem they want the EU to address.”, according to Politico sources.
North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles that landed outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone, according to South Korea.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mostly lower but off worst levels following a mixed lead from the US.
ASX 200 was pressured by its IT sector following the Meta-induced losses seen on Wall Street.
Nikkei 225 drifted off worst levels heading into the BoJ announcement but saw little action on the return from lunch break after the BoJ maintained its policy unchanged whilst upping its inflation forecasts across the board.
KOSPI conformed to the broader risk tone, although losses were shallower than peers
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened lower with the tech sector underperforming after the downbeat sectoral lead from the US, whilst NY Times reported that the Biden administration is weighing further controls on Chinese technology.
Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK) Q3 2022 (CNY): Net 68.5bln, NIM 1.96%, NPL ration 1.40%.
ICBC (1398 HK) 9M 2022 (CNY): net profit 265.82bln, NPL 1.4% at end-Sept.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
IMF cuts China’s 2022 growth outlook to 3.2% (prev. 4.4%), sees 4.4% growth in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024.
PBoC injects CNY 98bln via 7-day reverse repos at a maintained rate 2.00% for a daily injection of CNY 88bln
Japanese PM Kishida announces JPY 29.1tln extra budget for stimulus, via Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
Japanese CPI, Overall Tokyo (Oct) 3.5% (Prev. 2.8%); Ex fresh food YY (Oct) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 2.8%)
Japanese Unemployment Rate (Sep) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%); Jobs/Applicants Ratio* (Sep) 1.34 vs. Exp. 1.33 (Prev. 1.32)
Australian PPI QQ (Q3) 1.9% (Prev. 1.4%); YY (Q3) 6.4% (Prev. 5.6%)
i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 66.98 PTS OR 2.25% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 564.88 OR 3.66% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 240.04 PTS OR 0.88% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.98% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.2508 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.2752// /Oil DOWN TO 85.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 96.35 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
end
2B JAPAN
Ridiculous!
(zerohedge)
Japan Unveils $200 Billion Fiscal Stimulus To Fight Inflation; Will Do More QE To Fight Adverse Effects Of QE
Taking a page right out of the batshit insane California (and liberal) playbook, the Japanese government on Friday unveiled 29.1 trillion yen ($197BN) in fresh spending to – drumroll – ease the impact on consumers of something Japan has not seen for decades, i,e., soaring inflation, and something it has seen (but not to this extent) a collapsing yen.
The cartoonish irony, of course, is that Prime minister Fumio Kishida unveiled the stimulus package, which includes subsidized electricity and gas bills for households and coupons for pregnant women, just hours after Bank of Japan governor Kuroda ruled out any early rise in interest rates – despite the highest Tokyo CPI print since 1989 – and once again boosted the amount of QE the BOJ would have to do to keep bond yields from soaring higher and vowing he is “not thinking at all of stopping policy to spur prices”, thus sending the yen tumbling once again (and just days after his ownBOJ spent tens of billions of dollarsto prevent the yen from cratering).
Describing the absolute lunacy out of Japan this morning, Nomura’s Charlie McElligott pulled no punches:
BoJ goes “hilarious mode” despite a new high in HOT CPI (Tokyo inflation at highs since ’89), doubling down on easing & YCC and BOOSTING their bond purchase notionals mid-quarter for the first time, while releasing the following GEMS:
*KURODA: DON’T EXPECT RATE HIKE OR EXIT ANYTIME SOON
*KURODA: NEED TO FIRMLY SUPPORT ECONOMY WITH MONETARY EASING
*KURODA: YCC IS A METHOD OF EASING, DOESN’T CAUSE WEAK YEN
*KURODA: NOT THINKING AT ALL OF STOPPING POLICY TO SPUR PRICES
*KURODA: MONETARY POLICY NOT TARGETING FX
*BOJ BOOSTS BOND PURCHASE PLAN MID-QUARTER FOR FIRST TIME
*BOJ SEES FY2022 CORE CPI AT 2.9% VS 2.3% PREVIOUSLY
…And all while Japan’s government on Friday too unveiled a new stimulus plan spending upwards of $490B in totality to ease inflation LOLLLLLLLLLL
But wait, it gets better: the prime minister said the spending – which in addition to the $200BN in government funded stimulus is a $490BN total check – was expected to bring down Japan’s consumer inflation rate by more than 1.2 percentage points, which of course will never happen; instead what will happen is that the massive stimulus – which would have been equivalent to almost $1 trillion in the US – will only push prices higher, and since the BOJ will have to monetize it all, the BOJ is effectively printing money to offset the inflationary impact of printing money!
While Japan’s headline inflation rate (and recall that Japan has come up with like 10 different measures of CPI to convince people that its monetary policy is actually worked), at 3% in September, is much lower than price rises in the US and Europe, Kishida has come under pressure to take tougher measures to tackle higher living costs amid a sharp fall in his public approval ratings. After all, Japan has lived under deflation for the past 30 years and is not used to any price increases (as for Kuroda’s hope that this will spark some benign wage-price spiral, good luck).
Amid this lunacy, Japanese authorities have carried out at least two interventions to prop up the yen, which has fallen to 32-year lows because of the widening gulf between the BoJ’s super-dovish policy – which in turn is the result of the country’s MMT strategy of monetizing all the debt and deficit – and tightening by most other big central banks. Indeed, while the ECB on Thursday raised interest rates to their highest level since 2009, the BoJ kept overnight rates on hold at -0.1 per cent and continued to cap 10-year bond yields at about zero per cent.
The widely expected BoJ decision, made at a time of exceptional volatility in currency markets, initially sent the yen slightly higher to ¥146.21 to the dollar. But the currency later fell to below ¥147 after Kuroda made clear he was not considering early action to raise interest rates.
“We are getting closer to achieving our 2 per cent [core consumer inflation] target,” Kuroda said, but added: “We are not thinking of a rate hike or an exit anytime soon.”
Translation: the USDJPY is going right back to 150, where the BOJ will have to intervene again and again… until it runs out of US reserves at which point it is game over and hyperinflation – in the form of currency collapse – finally arrives.
There was more: with the government set to spend hundreds of billions more, Japan’s central bank also announced it would increase the frequency of its bond-buying in November to defend its control of the yield curve, even though the policy of suppressing longer term interest rates has effectively choked off trading in the 10-year JGB market. As of this moment, the BOJ owns more than half of all JGBs in circulation.
To justify the lack of a shift in monetary policy, the central bank sharply upgraded its core CPI forecast to 2.9% from the 2.3% projected in July for the year ending March 2023, while lowering its real GDP forecast to growth of 2% from 2.4% (read stagflationary recession). The BoJ forecast did not take into account the new stimulus spending. But while this would have been sufficient to boost rates, the central bank also said it expects inflation to fall to 1.6% in both fiscal 2023 and 2024.
Kuroda has frequently argued that underlying demand in the economy remained too weak for it to shift to policy tightening.
Of course, the economy has nothing to do with the BOJ’s policy; instead the central bank is stuck in deficit monetization mode – a core tenet of MMT – until the bitter end, which at this rate may be just a few short years away… or maybe even months, because the BOJ’s failed monetary policy is increasingly becoming a political issue. While so far, Kishida has expressed support for the BoJ policy, the FT reports that some analysts said the central bank might come under increasing political pressure as the government shifts its focus to tackling rising living costs.
“With the yen becoming a political issue and with the Kishida administration’s approval rate falling, it is questionable how long it can tolerate a situation where the government is carrying out interventions to stem the yen’s fall while the BoJ’s monetary policy is facing in a completely different direction,” said Barclays Japan economist Tetsufumi Yamakawa,
end
3c CHINA
CHINA/SEMICONDUCTOR CHIPS
Semiconductor shortages have now turned into an inventory glut
(zerohedge)
The Semiconductor Shortage Just Quickly Became An Inventory Glut
FRIDAY, OCT 28, 2022 – 05:45 AM
The global semiconductor shortage appears to have officially “bullwhipped” its way the other direction and, as such, as become a glut. Yes, you read that right, there is now reportedly a glut of semiconductors at top manufacturers, according to a new report by Caixin.
Names like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) and Nvidia are now dealing with “unsold stockpiles” of inventory as a result of shrinking demand and cancelled orders, the report says.
This means that the years-long hold up for chips looks like it has officially come to an end.
Xie Ruifeng from semiconductor industry market research institute ICwise told Caixin: “This round of business sentiment is reversing so fast that chip designers were struggling to find production capacity only last year, but now they find chips won’t sell.”
Meanwhile, smartphone and PC demand is shrinking, with global 5G smartphone shipments expected to fall by 150 million units in 2022, the report says. Demand for 5G chips will also plunge by 100 million units, to 120 million units, the report says.
Caixin noted that TSMC is facing significantly reduced orders:
TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, faces reduced orders from four of its largest customers, reflecting slowing global demand. JPMorgan Chase said in a report in early September that AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm and MediaTek slashed chip orders with TSMC.
And names like AMD and Intel are also suffering the demand slowdown:
Other semiconductor companies are also facing tough conditions. AMD lowered its revenue forecast for the third quarter, citing significant weakening in the PC market. Intel, Nvidia and Micron Technology all issued subdued outlooks.
In the first half of 2022, macroeconomic headwinds and a number of “black swan” factors combined to cause consumer electronics demand to plummet, with smartphones and PCs bearing the brunt. Micron predicted that global PC shipments will decline by 10 per cent to 20 per cent in 2022, while the global smartphone market will decline by less than 10 per cent.
And manufacturers are dealing with “six months of stockpiles” that they built up as a result of 2021’s shortage…and once-optimistic demand forecasts. That was, of course, at a time when free money was being handed out to “combat” the pandemic. Now, with tighter monetary policy globally, it should be no surprise that demand is falling off.
Mr Sravan Kundojjala, associate director of smartphone component technology services at Strategy Analytics confirmed that current supplies kept in inventory by companies could last until mid-2023 at current demand levels.
Still, it appears that all of the massive new infrastructure projects being taken on by companies like Intel and TSMC as a result of last years’ shortage are going to forge forward. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) co-chief executive Zhao Haijun told Caixin: “We will not change our plans for long-term capacity expansion and development.”
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS
FRANCE
Macron admits half the crimes in Paris have been committed by foreigners
(Cody/Remix)
Macron Admits Half The Crimes In Paris Are Committed By Foreigners
…but Macron is still pushing for more mass immigration despite data showing the tremendous crime rate of foreign nationals
French President Emmanuel Macron admits that half the crimes committed in Paris are the work of foreigners during an interview yesterday on the France 2 television channel.
“Yes, when we look at delinquency in Paris, we can see that half of the delinquent acts come from foreigners in an irregular situation or awaiting asylum approval,” said Macron.
However, Macron also said that despite the issue with immigration and insecurity, he sees no “existential” link between the two.
“I will never make an existential link between immigration and insecurity,” said Macron just 10 days after the murder of 12-year-old Lola, who was raped, had her throat slashed, and was stuffed in a suitcase by an Algerian migrant who was in the country illegally.
Macron is under severe pressure after the murder, with a number of leading opposition politicians laying the blame for the murder at his feet and pointing to his abysmal record on deportations. Macron previously promised in 2020 that he was aiming for a 100 percent deportation rate. That rate currently hovers under 6 percent, and in the case of Algerians, it is 0.2 percent.
Despite growing anger, Macron is pushing a plan to send more migrants to the countryside, a move that is overwhelming rejected by the French public there. He also said in February of this year that migration from Africa and the Middle East “can make France greater.”
On top of inflation and growing unrest, the issue of immigration is turning political opinion against the French leader. As in the past, such as following the beheading of French history teacher Samuel Paty by a Chechen Islamist teen, Macron has put forward a number of “reforms” to assuage public anger, but many of the proposals were never enforced or have done little to disrupt France’s issues with insecurity, including a 91 percent increase in murders since 2000.
This time around, Macron claims he wants “in-depth reform” and a “debate in parliament on immigration.”
“We must reform our laws in depth to be able to better welcome those we want to welcome,” he said during the Europe 2 interview. He offered little in terms of how he plans to address problems with integration and the country’s inability to deport cirminal migrants.
However, Macron’s admission that illegal migrants or migrants awaiting asylum are responsible for half the crime in Paris is supported by data. The recently retired Paris chief of police, Didier Lallement, made assertions just this month, writing in his new book that “one out of every two crimes is committed by a foreigner, who are often in the country illegally… It is clear that some of the newcomers are integrating through delinquency.”
It is also unclear what the racial and ethnic breakdown of crime statistics is in France, as there are many French citizens of “foreign origin” who are not counted as foreigners since they have obtained citizenship. France does not keep data on the ethnic or racial identity of suspects. However, in other cities, such as Marseilles, 55 percent of all crimes are committed by foreigners, a rate even higher than Paris, illustrating that it is a countrywide issue.
END
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/USA
This is scary!! Russia now warns non military satellites are now legitimate targets
e.g. Musk’s Spacex Starlink
In Ukraine, the are using the satellites to detail where Russians are hiding/heading towards.
(zerohedge)
Russia Warns US Non-Military Satellites Are “Legitimate Targets”
THURSDAY, OCT 27, 2022 – 09:00 PM
Russia has issued a new warning Thursday aimed at the United States at a moment Moscow-appointed officials appear to be retreating from the southern city of Kherson as it comes under increased Ukrainian shelling.
The Associated Press reports of the new Kremlin warning as follows, “Amid the battles, Russia issued a warning that the United States could be drawn into the conflict, adding it could target Western commercial satellites used for military purposes in support of Ukraine.”
The statement came from the deputy chief of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s arms control and nonproliferation department, Konstantin Vorontsov, who said “Quasi-civilian infrastructure could be a legitimate target for retaliation.”Artist rendering, via Science Photo Library
It also comes soon on the heels of the question of potential Pentagon funding for Elon Musk’s Starlink systems, after SpaceX said it can’t be expected to foot the bill indefinitely.
Ukraine’s forces have called Starlink essential to its ability to repel the Russian advance, as it’s often used in frontline communications where no other comms links exist.
Commercial satellites used by the United States to assist Ukraine in its war against Russia are “legitimate” targets for attacks, a Russian diplomat said Wednesday.
Private assets like Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet constellation, as well as Maxar and Planet Labs earth observation satellites, have proven critical in keeping Ukrainians online and piercing the fog of war.
This is not the first time the Kremlin suggested such a threat. Vorontsov had warned just last month that non-military satellites used by Ukraine “constitute indirect involvement in military conflicts” – hinting that they could eventually be targeted.
Vorontsov didn’t mention Starlink by name in his new statement to the United Nations…
Also on Thursday, Foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova charged that Washington is pursuing “thoughtless and mad” escalation.
“The more the US is drawn into supporting the Kyiv regime on the battlefield, the more they risk provoking a direct military confrontation between the biggest nuclear powers fraught with catastrophic consequences,” said Zakharova.
end
RUSSIA/FINLAND
This is very dangerous: Finland willing to host NATO’s nuclear weapons on its border with Russia
(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)
Finland Willing To Host NATO Nuclear Weapons On Border With Russia
NATO nuclear weapons could potentially be placed on Russia’s border with Finland if Helsinki joins the Western military alliance, Newsweek reported on Wednesday, citing a Finnish newspaper.
The newspaper Iltalehti reported that the bill the Finnish government will put before the country’s parliament on joining NATO doesn’t include any opt-outs for hosting nuclear weapons.
Finnish military sources told the paper that Finland’s foreign minister and defense minister committed to NATO back in July that they wouldn’t seek “restrictions or national reservations” if their application to join the alliance is accepted. Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said earlier this month that Finland had “no preconditions” for joining NATO.Soldiers from the Finnish Defence Forces, AFP/Getty Images
While Finland may be willing to host nuclear weapons, it’s unlikely they would be placed in the country after it joins NATO, at least in the near future. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin has previously said the alliance has expressed no interest in placing nuclear warheads in Finland.
Currently, the alliance keeps no nuclear warheads in countries that joined NATO after the end of the Cold War, although Poland recently said it’s had discussions with the US on hosting the weapons.
Placing nuclear weapons in Finland, which shares an over 800-mile border with Russia, would be a major provocation toward Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he doesn’t view Sweden and Finland joining NATO as a threat but said he will respond to the expansion of NATO military infrastructure in the region.
Finland and Sweden’s NATO memberships have been ratified by 28 out of 30 alliance members, with only Hungary and Turkey to go.Map via Global Defense Corp
Turkey has threatened to block the Nordic nations from joining if they don’t live up to sign a memorandum signed back in June, but Ankara’s issues seem to be mainly with Sweden, and the new Swedish government has said it’s ready to fulfill the deal.
END
ISRAEL/SYRIA
Israel attacks Iranian assets inside Syria. Russia looks the other way
(zerohedge)
Israel Attacks Syrian Capital For 3rd Time Since Friday After Zelensky Claims It’s Soft On Terror
FRIDAY, OCT 28, 2022 – 02:45 AM
On Wednesday Israel launched yet another missile attack on Damascus, which notably marks the third one against Damascus since Friday. Significantly Friday’s attack had been the first major strike in a month – though prior to this the aerial assaults had come semi-regularly.
“Four people collaborating with Hezbollah, including one Syrian fighter, were killed in an attack attributed to Israel on Damascus’ outskirts on Wednesday overnight, in the third such strike in less than a week, according to a human rights group in Syria,” Haaretz reports. However the Syrian government didn’t confirm any casualties. Via AFP
Despite the prior lull in such brazen attacks from Israeli forces, it seem clear they are now re-escalating again, but no specific reason from Israel has been provided.
“At around 00:30 AM (21:30 GMT), the Israeli enemy carried out an aerial aggression from the direction of the occupied Palestinian territories targeting several positions in the vicinity of Damascus,” Syria’s defense ministry said in a statement.
Similar strikes had been launched Friday and Monday, with Monday’s being a rare daytime attack that wounded a Syrian soldier.
Damascus says of the Wednesday aggression that anti-air defenses were deployed and “confronted the missile aggression and downed most of them.”
Of broader geopolitical importance, which might provide context to the stepped-up attacks, is Ukraine’s essentially begging Israel to transfer its Iron Dome defense system and “close the skies” – as President Zelensky said this week.
Zelensky in a rare display of boldness actually told a defense conference that Israel is turning “a blind eye to Russian terror”. He went so far as to say that refusing to help Kiev with anti-air systems is actually enabling an emboldened Iran as well, given the presence of Iranian suicide drones on the Ukraine battlefield. Israel has this week shut the door on Zelensky’s requests.
Israel might now be demonstrating that it remains as willing as ever to go after Iranian assets – inside Syria – which is also at the consternation of Russia, though its become clear that Moscow has been willing to look the other way while issuing vague condemnations.
end
IRAN/USA
USA hits Iran officials with more sanctions as protests reach 40 days
(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)
US Hits More Iranian Officials With Sanctions As Protests Reach 40 Days
The US on Wednesday announced new sanctions on Iranian officials for their alleged role in cracking down on protesters inside Iran as demonstrations and violence continue across the country.
Announcing the sanctions, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US will “continue to find ways to support” protesters inside Iran. He said the measures target 14 individuals and three entities.Iranian Presidency Office via AP
The new sanctions come as negotiations between the US and Iran to revive the nuclear deal, the JCPOA, have been stalled. US officials have said the JCPOA is not their “focus” now as they look for ways to support Iranian protesters. An Israeli official told The Times of Israelon Wednesday that the US has soured on the possibility of resuming talks with Tehran.
The new sanctions hit members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranians that work in the country’s prison system. The entities targeted by the sanctions are accused of participating in censorship and the surveillance of Iranians.
The protests were sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, and Wednesday marked the 40th day since she died. Iran has accused the US and Israel of fomenting the protests, which Iranian officials have denounced as riots.
Iranian officials have said at least 30 security officials have been killed by demonstrators, including members of the IRGC. On Wednesday, Iranian media reported that an IRGC member was shot dead by “rioters” in the Iranian city of Malayer.
It’s not clear if the US and Israel are involved in the violence, but Israel does have a long history of carrying out covert attacks inside Iran, including assassinations. Back in May, Israel was said to be behind the killing of an IRGC colonel in Tehran and was suspected of involvement in a string of other mysterious deaths around the same time.
The US has signaled that it’s trying to give material support to the Iranian protesters by giving them better access to the internet, which has been restricted. When asked if the US was getting involved in the protests, CIA Director William Burns said, “All I can say is we are going to continue to be strongly supportive as a government in the free flow of information.”
END
Everybody wants to hop on the BRICS Express
Robert Hryniak
7:33 PM (3 hours ago)
to
Elections have consequences. Children playing with grown up toys ignorant of fallout can easily hurt many people beyond themselves. It is why we tell kids not to play with matches because they can burn the house down and hurt themselves. Do you know America will run short of diesel to move goods in less than a month? What are the implications? Do you know that BASF has stated it will move its’ operations out of Europe to Asia because they cannot exist with gas prices as they are? I have written many a time Europe is in serious trouble. Will Germany and France really follow through on what they now call unfair trade advantage? Do you think anyone will listen? Did you know that it was Putin that gave Xi the heads up on the coup being plotted against him involving certain western fingers? Do you remember that Putin saved Erdogan from sure death by the CIA? By the way Burns the CIA head was in Kiev early in October before this dirty bomb stuff came to light. Why do you think Ben Wallace the British Defense Minister flew unscheduled to DC. ? Was this a case of covert operations being found out with proof? Yes, they were trying to copy an Iskander loaded with uranium and hit Chernobyl and blame Russia and Belarus. Xi owes a bunch to Russia as leader for life, including his life. Do you think a favor or two might be asked and obligated in days ahead? The world is changing and very quickly and to ignore the changes is sheer folly.
With Apple stock sliding it looks like we have a global growth problem
(zerohedge)
Apple Slides Despite Record Revenue, EPS Beat As iPhone, Warns Of Slowing Revenue Growth
THURSDAY, OCT 27, 2022 – 05:15 PM
Update (5:30pm): While Apple’s earnings were at worst (or best) mixed, things got decidedly uglier during the earnings call, when the company revealed that it’s about to get uglier:
Total company revenue growth will decelerate compared with 4Q
Mac revenue will decline substantially in holiday quarter due to tough comparison from last year’s redesigned MacBook Pro launch
This is as good as it gets on the guidance front: Apple said that there will be no revenue guidance due to uncertainties in the world, so it will hardly be great.
Additionally, while Apple has not blamed the soaring dollar or using constant-currency conversions, CFO Maestri did say that services revenues would be up double digits in constant currency; he also said that the company is seeing softness in gaming (App Store and Apple Arcade likely) and in digital advertising. Maestri also said that Apple will likely see 10% of currency impact in the first quarter. That’s much more severe than many tech peers (MSFT said cloud sales are hit by 5% from FX).
Some more details from the call, in which Maestri says that Apple’s paid subscriptions topped 900 million across services on Apple platforms, up 155 million in the last 12 months. That’s double three years ago. This includes Apple and third-party services through the App Store.
Maestri also said that Apple continues to generate “very strong” cash flow, which isn’t exactly true: yes, Apple ended the quarter with $169 billion in cash and marketable securities, but its net cash was down to just $49 billion, the lowest since 2010!
Away from the call, CFRA Research says the quarter was solid, but conditions should get more challenging “as the iPhone 14 cycle extends given the uncertain economic conditions.” That said, Apple’s premium brand should allow it to successfully increase prices, CFRA says.
* * *
With Amazon imploding after dismal earnings and catastrophic guidance, it was all up to the world’s biggest company, AAPL, to provide some – any – hail mary for a tech earnings season that has been an unmitigated disaster. Alas, it was not meant to be and despite beating on the top and bottom line, AAPL has joined the parade of doom and tumbling after hours due to numbers which the market was clearly not impressed with, and which confirm that the US and global economies are on the verge of a painful recession.
Here are the fiscal Q4 details:
EPS $1.29 vs. $1.24 y/y, beating estimates of $1.26
Mac revenue $11.51 billion, +25% y/y, beating estimate $9.25 billion
IPad revenue $7.17 billion, -13% y/y, missingestimate $7.81 billion, and down for the 4th quarter in a row.
Wearables, home and accessories $9.65 billion, +9.8% y/y, beating the estimate $8.8 billion
Service revenue $19.19 billion, +5% y/y, missing estimate $19.97 billion
Commenting on the quarter, Tim Cook said that “as we head into the holiday season with our most powerful lineup ever, we are leading with our values in every action we take and every decision we make. We are deeply committed to protecting the environment, to securing user privacy, to strengthening accessibility, and to creating products and services that can unlock humanity’s full creative potential.”
CFO Luca Maester chimed in: “our record September quarter results continue to demonstrate our ability to execute effectively in spite of a challenging and volatile macroeconomic backdrop. We continued to invest in our long-term growth plans, generated over $24 billion in operating cash flow, and returned over $29 billion to our shareholders during the quarter. The strength of our ecosystem, unmatched customer loyalty, and record sales spurred our active installed base of devices to a new all-time high. This quarter capped another record-breaking year for Apple, with revenue growing over $28 billion and operating cash flow up $18 billion versus last year.”
Cutting to the chase, yes: Apple repurchased some $25 billion in stock in fiscal Q4. The question is will it continue the buybacks at this crazy pace, or will it slow down as many are worried that it, and other tech peers, must do as we enter a recession.
Going back to the results, while Apple actually did pretty well in most categories, it disappointed in iPhone sales, which however was to be expected with several warnings in the past 3 weeks that iPhone 14 sales will be a disappointment. At $42.63 billion, or up 9.7% y/y, this missed the estimate of $42.67 billion.
iPhone sales aside, Apple’s other product categories were a mixed bag: iPad sales came in at $7.2BN, down 13% Y/Y and sliding for the fourth quarter in a row and missing estimates of $7.81BN; Mac revenue was $11.51N, up 25% and solidly beating estimates of $9.25BN. Most of the quarter’s beat appears to be in this segment. Wearables were also solid at $9.65BN, up 9.8% Y/Y, and beating the $8.8BN estimate.
But where the market was especially concerned, was Service revenue of $19.19BN, which badly missed the $19.97BN estimate…
… and rose just 5% Y/Y, the lowest annual growth in history.
A silver lining here: the price hikes for Apple Music and Apple TV+ earlier this week should give investors confidence that the miss on Services may not be a long-term issue. Still, the services number is strong compared with last year.
One other place where investors were disappointed, was China sales, because while for the most part the sales breakdown came in as expected, with growth everywhere except in Japan…
… China revenue rose 6.2% to $15.47BN, missing the estimate of $15.65BN.
And another potential problem: AAPL’s net cash has cratered, sliding to just $49 billion, or where it was in 2010, having spent tens of billions on stock buybacks. Let’s hope that Apple doesn’t actually need to use that cash…
In response to these mixed earnings, the stocks first tumbled, then rebounded and was last seen drifting modestly lower, about 1% below the closing price although that is a notable improvement from where it traded briefly after hours. As Bloomberg puts it, “Apple shares are teetering between red and green, which makes sense. This is a mixed report. Overall revenue is great, all things considered, but investors probably wish that the iPhone and Services — which should have been highlights — were a bit stronger. Still, Apple is in a far better position right now than competitors like Meta, Alphabet and Amazon.”
Still, down 1% after earnings is not a bad result compared with tech peers. Amazon is down 18% at last check.
Yes, the low hanging fruit that COVID killed initially, our precious elderly that governments & doctors refused to treat effectively with early treatment, but the vaccine is killing way MORE people
DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 28end Six Horsemen of the Apocalypse, these 6 told people go get the COVID vaccine, as it is effective and works, no infection etc. and they all, with 4 shots got infectedThese people mislead the public KNOWINGLY, Fauci & Bourla & Walensky and these crooks knew the vaccine was non-sterilizing & never stopped infection or transmission, the others are clueless \Dr. Paul Alexander8 hr ago7722
Persons like Biden, I cannot blame him for at his age, he is dependent on i) his advisors (as was Trump) and his advisors are as inept and corrupt as Trump’s and so I do not blame him ii) he does not understand the science as POTUS and why should he, it is the job of his advisors and iii) he is showing mental decline. So folk like him, as are our elderly parents and grand parents, we have to understand they are scared, uninformed and thus hoping that those who are providing the information are being factual and honest. Biden is failed in this regard, and he is being made a fool by the miscreants in his administration. Bill Gates is a moron, flat out idiot who thinks he is a medical doctor or scientist and and expert in public health. IMO, the only thing he is a scientist or expert of is bullshit. Maddow, well, to be honest, at times I do like some of what she says. I do not blame her for she does not know and thus depends on the bogus garbage Fauci et al. spouts. Though I detest her politics and pure venom on anyone who is not a leftist radical like her. You could really detest her hatred of others and pure radical vitriol yet you give her credit for she believes in what she believes in and defends it. I do not think she is a bad or malevolent person, she is just misguided, misinformed, and at times her rants are insane. In a weird way, I admire that, though she can be very nutty at times. Mind you, so can many on FOX e.g. Siegal, Saphire, Baier et al. who shilled for the fraud COVID vaccines.end Open in app or onlineWatanabe myocarditis study (Japan) deserves re-posting as findings are keyDR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 28 ▷ LISTENSAVE Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine
Has Florida Become the Top State in the U.S. for Medical Kidnapping and Child Trafficking?
October 27, 2022 6:05 pm
Florida is rapidly becoming the go-to State for people fleeing the rapidly decaying mega urban centers in the U.S., and that includes some of the richest and most famous billionaires who have recently moved their residency to Florida, such as former President Donald Trump and Oracle founder Larry Ellison, among others. Even Ukraine President and alleged Billionaire Volodymyr Zelensky has a $35 million dollar mansion in South Florida, where he will undoubtedly retire to if the war in his country doesn’t go his way. And with Wall Street mega-bank criminals now starting their own virtual stock exchange, MEMX, it is probably only a matter of time before South Florida replaces New York’s Wall Street as the new residence of most of the world’s billionaires and bankers who can just work online while hitting the Florida beaches. Tragically, one thing that seems to follow the rich and famous in this country is the problem of human trafficking, and specifically child sex trafficking, as even Jeffrey Epstein ran a major portion of his child sex trafficking operation through South Florida. As we have reported numerous times over the years, the #1 source for child trafficking in the United States is the corrupt child welfare program that funds foster care and adoptions in the U.S. You can learn more about this corrupt system of child trafficking that imperils all of the nation’s children every day on our Medical Kidnapping website. Thanks to some good local reporting in Florida, many families who have had their children taken away from them illegally by the State of Florida are fighting back and now suing the State of Florida, naming Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Executive Director of the Florida Department of Health Dr. Joseph Ladapo as defendants.
In Stunning Strategy Reversal, Pentagon Will No Longer Rule Out Use Of Nuclear Weapons Against Non-Nuclear Threat
October 27, 2022 6:39 pm
As Bloomberg just reported, the Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy rejects limits on using nuclear weapons long championed by arms control advocates (and, in the not too distant past, by Joe Bide) citing burgeoning threats from Russia and China. “By the 2030s the United States will, for the first time in its history face two major nuclear powers as strategic competitors and potential adversaries,” the Defense Department said in the long-awaited document issued Thursday. In response, the US will “maintain a very high bar for nuclear employment” without ruling out using the weapons in retaliation to a non-nuclear strategic threat to the homeland, US forces abroad or allies. In yet another stark reversal for the senile occupant of the White House basement, in his 2020 presidential campaign Biden had pledged to declare that the US nuclear arsenal should be used only to deter or retaliate against a nuclear attack, a position blessed by progressive Democrats and reviled by defense hawks. But, like with every other position held by the pathological liar who even trumps Trump in the untruth department, this one has just been reversed as well as “the threat environment has changed dramatically since then” and the Pentagon strategy was forged in cooperation with the flip-flopping White House. The nuclear strategy document doesn’t spell out what non-nuclear threats could produce a US nuclear response, but current threats include hypersonic weapons possessed by Russia and China for which the US doesn’t yet have a proven defense. It does spell out, however, in the strongest terms, what would happen to another nuclear power, North Korea, if it launched a nuclear attack on the US, South Korea or Japan. That action “will result in the end of that regime,” it says. US nuclear weapons continue to play a role in deterring North Korean attacks. So, the brilliant neocon minds behind the report concluded, it is better to instill the fear of a disproportionate nuclear retaliation, thus making an outright nuclear attack far more likely (if the US will nuke you anyway, may as well go all out).
Some folks do not know that the Saudis have the lowest lift price on oil and oil priced in USD is the foundation of value behind the Dollar. Did you know that recently the Saudis rejected American participation in a technology conference?
Saudis apparently have a oil contract with China in Yuan starting November 1st.
Should this be fact this is monumental event that will rock the global markets. Because they will have sent a clear Signal to all of OPEC. This is a marker event that will be felt by all nations. And it is clear that if it occurs the Saudis have indeed decided that America cannot be trusted and decided that China and Russia are a more astute protector.
This does come at a time when America has been hindered by a the most inept going show in recent times to cope with such a event.
Cheers
Robert
END
8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS
end
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM
Euro/USA 0.99613 DOWN 0.0006 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED
USA/ YEN 147.42 UP 1.132 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//
GBP/USA 1.15543 DOWN 0.0009
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 66.98 PTS OR 2.25%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 564.88 POINTS OR 3.66%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .98% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 564.88 PTS OR 3.66%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 66.98 PTS OR 2.25%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.98%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 240.04 PTS OR 0.88%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1651.25
silver:$19.32
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 110.64 UP 0.19 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 7.2525
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.2763
TURKISH LIRA: 18.61 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.239
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.992% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.112 UP 2 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 110.77 UP 31 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 17.62 PTS OR 0.25%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 31.61 POINTS OR 0.45%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 28.19PTS OR 0.21%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 18.70 OR 0.24%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 64.80 PTS OR 0.29%
WTI Oil price 87.67 12: EST
Brent Oil: 95.66 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 61.64 UP 0 AND 9/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.095
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 0.9965 DOWN .0002 OR 2 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.16118 UP .0048 or 48 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.524%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.43 UP 1.137//YEN UP 114 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3603 UP 0.0040 (CDN dollar, DOWN 40 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 88.11
Brent OIL: 96.00
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 3.996%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 4.120%
USA dollar index:110,55 UP .10 CENTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.59
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 61.52 UP 0 AND 21/100 ROUBLES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 828.52 PTS OR 2.59 %
NASDAQ 100 UP 354.58 PTS OR 3.17%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.89 DOWN 1.50 PTS (5.48)%
GLD: $153.16 DOWN 1.58 OR 1.02%
SLV/ $17.94 DOWN $0.24 OR 1.33%
end)
USA trading day in Graph Form
Dow Soars Towards Best Month In 84 Years Amid ‘Eye-Wateringly Speculative YOLO-ing’
FRIDAY, OCT 28, 2022 – 04:00 PM
Lots of chatter this week about a Fed ‘pause’, ‘mini-pivot’, or ‘step-down’ in its hawkishness that provided the narrative for every buying-panic, and given that expectations for The Fed’s terminal rate were unchanged on the week (shifting significantly hawkishly today), but the subsequent rate-cut expectations shifted dovishly, it appears traders are focused on the middle ‘mini-pivot’…
Source: Bloomberg
But we also note that the odds of a 75bps rate-hike in December surged today (from around 20% to 40%) with next week’s FOMC a lock for 75bps…
Source: Bloomberg
So, thanks to that fundamental narrative, and a bearishly under-allocated investor base (macro) or explicitly ‘short’ positioned (systematic CTA Trend), stocks melted up amid a ‘chase’ / stop-out ‘buy to cover’ behavior we have seen all too often. On the day, Nasdaq swung from down 2.5% shortly after AAPL/AMZN earnings last night to up over 3%…
On the week, The Dow and Small Caps roared almost 6% higher leading the way while Nasdaq was the biggest loser, ‘only’ gaining 2% (after being down 3% overnight on the week)…
For some context, ahead of Monday’s month-end, we note that The Dow is on pace for its best month since since 1976 (and is getting close to The Dow’s best month since 1938). It is up 4 straight weeks (+14%) – its biggest 4-week gain since April 2020. Nasdaq is ‘only’ up 5% on the month…
This manic meltup should not have been surprise to regular readers (as discussed here, here, and here)…
Was Tim Cook buying?
But it wasn’t just buybacks and positioning, here’s Nomura’s Charlie McElligott to explain:
1) Look at the eye-wateringly speculative “YOLOing” today into 0-1 days-to-expiration OTM Call Options in US Equities Index / ETF, as Gamma is being weaponized, with Dealer hedging flows dictating / helping to self-fulfill a market melt-up…
As of mid-afternoon, 64% of all SPX Options trading today are 0-1DTE…62% of all SPY…and 60% of all QQQ!
And when you stop and think that this morning’s Cash Equities open was ES1 @ 3818—to then see that now through 12:40pm that 13% of ALL SPX Options having traded today are the 3900 Call (along with 8% of all options being the 3880C and another 7% being the 3875C), a full +2.2% above that opening Spot price…that sure is something “special”
Source: Nomura
2) This interplay from short-dated highly convex upside Options is then massive with the following “kindling,” as the monthly SPX Put Spread Collar (3290 3905 4340) is out there for Monday expiration…with Dealers Short that 3905 strike (Fund is long it) which is also pulling us toward that level as it kicks-off ~$1.25B from the associated 14k options (on top of what is already $2.8B of Gamma at the 3900 strike, with ~$325mm of that expiring today)
Source: Nomura
Even though I voiced my skepticism earlier today on what I expect to be the Fed’s “inability” to withstand this violent market-led EASING of financial conditions to an extent that is nearly a de-facto “Fed rate CUT”—which then increases the potential for a “rug pull” in days and weeks ahead vs Inflation / Labor / Wage data that isn’t backing-down…Rates flows are beginning to lend credibility to said “step down” bullish “upside optionality” trades in SOFR / USTs, as highlighted in this morning’s email
And now too on the Vol side, we are also seeing some signs of behavioral change in $Rates Gamma very much worth monitoring—from Natasha:
“The past two weeks has been the first time in a while that we have seen clients putting on payer ladders and payer 1x2s on the LHS. These trades have been untouched for a good year or more at least in swaptions. The market definitely seems to be getting more comfortable with the idea of a FED pivot, as is also apparent via the CME exchange skew which is strongly calls over.”
Industrials led the week along with Staples, Real Estate, and Utes (not exactly aggressive?) Discretionary and Energy lagged (but all sectors were up on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX plunged back to a 25 handle as puts were dumped…
Treasuries were also bid on the week with the long-end outperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
10Y Yields fell back to 4.00% this week…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar fell for the 2nd week in a row…
Source: Bloomberg
The offshore yuan saw its biggest daily rise in history this week but by the end of the week, the yuan closed weaker against the dollar
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was up on the week, holding mid-week gains above $20,500 (note that the crypto surge coincided with yuan buying)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil managed gains on the week but copper, gold, and silver all slipped lower…
Source: Bloomberg
WTI rallied up to $88 this week, back to pre-OPEC+ ‘snub’ levels…
Given the diesel crack’s extreme spread, refiners are incentivized to pump out more of that distillate… but to ‘solve’ the problem of near record low diesel stocks (which would truly bring the economy to standstill), refiners would have to switch from gasoline… which would push up the pump price for the average joe (and cruysh Biden’s midterms hope even further)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, this dip-buying extravaganza is coming right on cue (just like the one in June)…
Source: Bloomberg
Will FOMC or CPI be the short-term top?
I) / LATE MORNING// TRADING//
AFTERNOON TRADING//AFTER HOURS
ii) USA DATA/
The economy is falling flat on its face: American savings rate plunges to near record lows
Inflation overcomes income growth
(zerohedge)
Americans’ Savings Rate Plunges Near Record Lows As Inflation Overwhelms Income Growth
FRIDAY, OCT 28, 2022 – 08:46 AM
Americans’ personal incomes and spending were expected to increase MoM in September (on a nominal basis) and they did with spending rising more than expected (+0.6% MoM vs +0.5% exp)
Source: Bloomberg
On a YoY notional basis, spending continues to outpace income growth significantly, but both are slowing…
Source: Bloomberg
On the income side, private worker wage growth is slowing rapidly:
Private wages up 8.1% in Sept, down from 8.5% in Aug and the lowest since March 21
Govt wages up 4.2%, unch from Sept, and the lowest since July
Source: Bloomberg
But, on a real, inflation-adjusted basis, incomes continue to shrink while spending remains marginally higher…
Source: Bloomberg
All of which means the savings rate plunged to multi-decade lows at 3.1%, just shy of the record low 3.0%…
Source: Bloomberg
But, but, but, the economy is “strong as hell”?
end
Inflation expectations increase again. Hope dips
(zerohedge)
UMich Inflation Expectations Increase From September, ‘Hope’ Dips
The final print for next 12 months inflation expectations was very marginally lower than the flash print (+5.0% vs +5.1%) but remains higher than the September final print of 4.7%…
Source: Bloomberg
The final October print for the headline UMich sentiment indicator rose modestly to 59.9, driven by an increase in ‘current conditions’ but ‘ future expectations’ dipped. The university’s sentiment index increased this month to 59.9, the highest since April. The current conditions gauge also advanced in October to a six-month high, while a measure of expectations dropped to a three-month low.
Source: Bloomberg
While buying conditions for durable goods, such as cars and appliances, improved based on easing supply-chain constraints and lower prices, consumers were more pessimistic about the business outlook.
“These divergent patterns reflect substantial uncertainty over inflation, policy responses and developments worldwide, and consumer views are consistent with a recession ahead in the economy,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.
This pain is expected to continue, given that for the 8th straight month, over 80% of consumers expect interest rates to rise in the year ahead.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.
USA military conducts a successful hypersonic seapon experiment in Virginia. They are trying to catch up to Russia and China
(zerohedge)
US Military Conducts Successful Hypersonic Weapon Experiments In Virginia
THURSDAY, OCT 27, 2022 – 11:00 PM
A joint US Army-Navy advanced weapons program successfully tested hypersonic weapon components using a sounding rocket from a coastal launch pad in Virginia on Wednesday, amid continued efforts to catch up with Russia and China. So far, the US has no hypersonic weapons deployed — and this is a huge national security threat as nuclear war drums get louder.
Reuters said the sounding rocket (research rocket or a suborbital rocket) was launched from NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia, carrying eleven experiments designed to test and collect data for a future hypersonic weapons flight. Some of the tests included weapon communications, navigation equipment, and advanced materials to see if they could withstand the heat in a “realistic hypersonic environment,” according to a Navy statement.
“This test will be used to inform the development of the Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) and the Army’s Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) offensive hypersonic strike capability,” the Navy said, adding they’re “on track to support the first fielding of a hypersonic capability to the Army” in 2023.
According to Epoch Times, a second sounding rocket is scheduled for launch on Thursday and will have 13 experiments with classified hypersonic weapon components.
In response to yesterday’s launch, Vice Admiral Johnny Wolfe, the director of Strategic Systems Programs who supervised the test, told CNN:
“The launch today went extremely well.
“As a matter of fact, we’ve just gotten done looking through our key observables, and every piece of data that we wanted to collect – at least preliminarily – has shown that we collected all that data.”
Not too long ago, Gregory Hayes, CEO of Raytheon Technologies Corp., said the US is “at least several years behind” China in developing hypersonic technology.
Meanwhile, the threat of nuclear war is increasing by the day, and we’ve told readers the next major conflict will be won with hypersonic weapons, fifth-generation stealth fighters and bombers, and drones. The Pentagon better get its act together and field a hypersonic weapon, as a conflict between Russia and/or China seems almost inevitable.
END
US Accelerates Upgraded Nuke Delivery To Jittery European Allies: Cable
FRIDAY, OCT 28, 2022 – 04:15 AM
On the same day that Russia hailed completion of its ‘successful’ annual nuclear drills, Politico published a bombshell report describing that the US has accelerated plans to maintain upgraded nuclear weapons in Europe.
Specifically, US defense officials informed NATO allies earlier this month that Europe will host a B61-12air-dropped gravity bomb, to be transferred by December. Politico reported Wednesday that a classified cable it has seen confirmed this. USAF file image: an unarmed B61-12 bomb
The upgraded bomb was expected to arrive in Europe next spring, but the timeline was accelerated amid Russia’s growing nuclear rhetoric surrounding the war in Ukraine. President Biden recently raised eyebrows in saying nuclear “armageddon” is a real possibility for the first time since the close of the Cold War.
On an official level the Pentagon is disputing that its planned nuclear upgrade for NATO’s Europe arsenal is in any way connected to events in Ukraine, however, Politico cites the following sources:
Two people familiar with the issue of the upcoming shipment to Europe confirmed the accelerated timeframe reported in the diplomatic cable. They asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
The cable, which has not previously been made public and was written to be distributed throughout the Pentagon and State Department to give policymakers a rundown of what was discussed among defense ministers at the NATO meeting, clearly indicates that allies are jittery.
The document says that during the meetings, 15 NATO allies raised concerns that the alliance “must not give in to Putin’s nuclear blackmail.”
2018 test drop: F-15E Strike Eagle jet dropping the first inert B61-3/4 tactical nuclear bomb (Source: Sandia National Labs/YouTube)
The cable is further quoted by Politico as follows: “Given the rising volume and scale of Russia’s nuclear rhetoric, a subset of allies requested continued consultations at NATO to ensure continued readiness and consistent messaging.”
Some analysts cited in the report say the White House is fundamentally sending a message of reassurance to NATO at a moment European countries are feeling “vulnerable”, and that the intent is not to escalate nuclear tensions with Moscow:
“My guess is it is aimed more towards NATO than Russia,” said Tom Collina, director of policy at the Ploughshares Fund, a disarmament group. “There are [older] B61s already there. The Russians know that. They work just fine. The new ones will be newer, but it’s not really that much of a difference. But it may be a way to assure the allies when they are feeling particularly threatened by Russia.”
The upgraded B61-12 is designed to allow the bomb to be carried by a fuller array of US and allied bombers and fighter jets, while older versions had more limited delivery options. The upgraded version is also said to be more accurate.
The B61 nuclear gravity bomb is deployed at a number of US Air Force and NATO military bases and has almost five decades of service, making it the oldest bomb in the US stockpile. Numerous programs have modified the B61 for safety, security, and reliability since it entered service in the late 1960s, including four B61 variants.
The upgraded B61-12 LEP – a project years in the making, will replace all of the bomb’s nuclear and non‐nuclear components for another two decades, and improve the bomb’s safety, effectiveness, and security. This life extension program will address all age-related issues of the weapon, and enhance its reliability, field maintenance, safety, and use control.
END
III B USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//INFLATION WATCH
end
SWAMP STORIES
Early voting and mail ballot turnout trends point northbound
(Haughley/EpochTimes)
Early Voting And Mail Ballot Turnout Trends Point To 2020 Replay
As a result, it may take several days after polls close on Nov. 8 for results to be confirmed in several key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
In-person early voting periods and vote-by-mail have grown increasingly popular over the last two decades. They became mainstream during the 2020 election when more than 101 million Americans cast early in-person votes or vote-by-mail ballots.
The 2022 early vote and vote-by-mail turnout is expected to easily eclipse the record for midterm elections set in 2018, when more than 5 million voters cast early in-person ballots and 30.4 million voted by mail. The totals this year may come close to matching the number of ballots cast before Election Day in 2020.
Of those 7.46 million ballots, nearly 1.65 million were cast in-person in the 27 states where early voting is under way. Early voting periods range from four to 45 days before Election Day.
By week’s end, another 18 states will open polls for in-person early voting, beginning with seven states on Oct. 24—including Florida, Texas, Colorado—and ending with New York and New Jersey on Oct. 29.
More than 5.8 million mail ballots of 41.52 million requested nationwide have been returned to local election offices as of Oct. 23, according to U.S. Elections Project. All 50 states offer voting by mail, or absentee ballot options. Nine states, including California, Colorado, Nevada, and New Jersey, send mail ballots to all registered voters.
Not all states break down early votes and mailed votes by political affiliation when posting turnout figures. In Kansas, North Carolina, and New Mexico, 138,406 Democrats (40.5 percent) and 112,047 (32.8 percent) Republicans voted early in-person.
Georgia, which opened its early voting period on Oct. 17, reported more than 740,600 early ballots cast as of Oct. 23. Early voting ends Nov. 5 in the state.
The Georgia tally includes a record midterm first-day early voting turnout of 131,000, twice as high as the 71,000 first-day early voters in 2018, and nearly matching the 136,739 who showed up on the first day early-voting polls opened in 2020.
“We’re extremely pleased that so many Georgians are able to cast their votes, in record numbers and without any reports of substantial delays,” Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said in a statement. “This is a testament to the hard work of Georgia’s election workers, the professionals who keep our elections convenient and secure.”
Of 17 states that provide party affiliations for more than 3.74 million vote-by-mail tallies to the U.S. Elections Project, 51.3 percent came from registered Democrats, and 30 percent were mailed in by registered Republicans.
Florida, where early in-person voting begins Oct. 24 and ends Nov. 5, has registered the largest vote-by-mail turnout thus far with more than 1.16 million of 4.23 million requested mail ballots already filed with local elections offices as of Oct. 23. Registered Democrats cast 42.2 percent of the mail-ballot votes, and Republicans cast 38.2 percent. Nearly 20 percent of the mail ballots were cast by non-affiliated voters.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, in early October signed an executive order that allows four Southwest Florida counties that remain devastated in Hurricane Ian’s wake more flexibility in expanding in-person voting and voting by mail. Among those emergency measures is allowing three more days of early in-person voting.
During an Oct. 15 press conference, the Republican governor encouraged residents in Southwest Florida to vote by mail.
“What I would say is whatever you like is fine. We’ve got good returns on absentee, and I have confidence in early voting, in person (voting) and, of course, Election Day” voting, DeSantis said.
The only state that comes close to the 1.16 million who’ve returned vote-by-mail ballots in Florida is California, where all 21.87 million registered voters get ballots in the mail. As of Oct. 23, nearly 1.08 million Californians had returned mail ballots, according to the U.S. Elections Project.
Of those returned California VBM ballots, nearly half were mailed in by Democrats while 28 percent came from registered Republican voters.
Musk wastes no time as he fires Twitter CEO, CFO and top censor
(zerohedge)
The Firings Begin: Twitter CEO, CFO, & Top Censor Escorted Out
THURSDAY, OCT 27, 2022 – 08:53 PM
As the bell tolls for the end of the first chapter of Twitter’s life as a deep state narrative-enabling machine, the firings have begun with Musk becoming ‘Chief Twit’.
Vijaya Gadde, the top legal and policy executive, (or censorship czar).
We suspect she was first on the list given this tweet from Musk earlier in the year…
As a reminder, having been with Twitter since 2011, Gadde was the key executive in charge of ‘trust and safety, legal and public policy functions‘ – described by Politico as the company’s “moral authority.”
Gadde holds one of the most controversial positions at Twitter: Her teams decide how to moderate content. That’s made her a target of right-wing criticism, particularly when Twitter blocked the distribution of a New York Post article about President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, in 2020. She faced a renewed wave of criticism after multiple reports confirmed she was behind the decision to ban Trump from Twitter. -Politico
In other words, Gadde is likely the exec who signed off on ZeroHedge’s February 2020 ban for speculating that Covid-19 may have emerged from a Wuhan Lab, and President Trump’s January 2021 ban in connection with the capitol riot.
And we are not surprised at the others…
At least one of the executives who was fired was escorted out of Twitter’s office, NYTimes reports.
Please do not feel too bad for these poor, dejected executives, as Insider reports, through “change in control” provisions in employment contracts for top leadership, they will receive a certain amount of severance and an automatic acceleration of their shares, so long as Musk fires them.
Agrawal is set to receive the largest payout of $38.7 million, due largely to the entirety of his shares vesting upon his firing.
Segal is set to receive a $25.4 million payout for getting fired.
Gadde will leave with $12.5 million.
As we detailed earlier, over 1,100 employees have left Twitter since Musk announced his intention to buy the company back in January, with almost a third going to Google or Meta.
The figures come from a new analysis of LinkedIn data, with the report noting that other workers have moved to the likes of Pinterest, LinkedIn, Snap, and TikTok.
We suspect, as Elon warned, it’s sinking now for some…
Will we see this tomorrow?
end
KING REPORT
The King Report October 28, 2022 Issue 6975
Independent View of the News
As expected, the ECB hiked its deposit rate 75bps to 1.5% and its refinancing rate 75bps to 2.0%. These are the highest rates since 2009. The ECB did not mention QT or provide rate guidance.
ECB raises deposit rate to 1.5%, highest since 2009 European Central Bank raised interest rates for the third meeting in a row and signaled an intention to start mopping up cash from the banking system to fight record-high inflation… But the ECB repeated plans to keep reinvesting proceeds from the 3.3-billion-euro pile of bonds it bought under its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) in the last eight years, when it thought inflation was going to stay low. “The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time,” the ECB said… The ECB also increased the rate on its Main Refinancing Operation, a weekly cash auction that banks have barely tapped for years, to 2.0% from 1.25% and that on its daily Marginal Lending Facility to 2.25% from 1.5%… https://t.co/QhdxzvmYgp
ECB hikes rates by 75 basis points and scales back support for European banks The ECB announced Thursday that it was changing the terms and conditions of its targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTROs — a tool that provides European banks with attractive borrowing conditions…. It said the interest rates applicable to the tool, known as TLTRO III, would be adjusted from Nov. 23 and banks would be offered voluntary early repayment dates. “In order to align the remuneration of minimum reserves held by credit institutions with the Eurosystem more closely with money market conditions, the Governing Council decided to set the remuneration of minimum reserves at the ECB’s deposit facility rate.” This will see the cost of lending for banks rise significantly under the scheme… The ECB confirmed that its rating hike cycle is not yet over. “With this third major policy rate increase in a row, the Governing Council has made substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation. The Governing Council took today’s decision, and expects to raise interest rates further, to ensure the timely returnof inflation to its 2% medium-term inflation target,” the central bank said… “Inflation remains far too high and will stay above the target for an extended period,”… https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/ecb-meeting-oct-2022-hikes-rates-by-75-basis-points-new-terms-for-european-banks.html
@Schuldensuehner: ECB hikes rates by 75bps as expected. Main rate to 2%, Deposit rate to 1.5%. Expects to raise rate further, Deciding Meeting by Meeting. Drops Language on “next several meetings” No QT yet as ECB to Reinvest App Proceeds in Full for Extended Period. Euro drops on dovish decision.https://t.co/UgvklgFvBo
Traders Pare ECB Bets, See Key Rate Peaking Below 2.75% in 2023 – BBG 8:32 ET
ECB President Lagarde: Growth Risks on Downside, Inflation Risks on Upside – BBG 8:57 ET Lagarde: Likely 3Q Significant Slowdown Will Deepen in 4Q, 1Q – BBG 8:53 ET
Credit Suisse shares plunge 12% as bank announces huge third-quarter loss and strategic overhaul The embattled lender posted a third-quarter net loss of 4.034 billion Swiss francs ($4.09 billion), compared with analyst expectations for a loss of 567.93 million Swiss francs. The figure is also well below the 434 million Swiss franc profit posted for the same quarter last year… https://t.co/63dG0yzU5z
Some Credit Suisse Units Breached Liquidity Rules Amid OutflowsBank saw elevated withdrawals at the start of this monthWhile outflows have slowed, they haven’t yet reversedCredit Suisse says one or more of its units breached liquidity requirements this month when depositors pulled their money amid speculation about the lender’s turnaround plan… https://t.co/Cf7bBbNqbY
BEA: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent… The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 4.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 8.5 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 4.2 percent, compared with an increase of 7.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.7 percent. Personal Income – Current-dollar personal income increased $291.2 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $305.7 billion in the second quarter. The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and personal income receipts on assets (table 8)… https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-10/gdp3q22_adv.pdf
Net exports of goods and services contributed 2.77 percentage points or 110% of 2.57% Q3 GDP. How much of this was due to SPR/energy and weapons (Ukraine and Europe) exports?
Personal Consumption fell to 1.4% from 2.0% (1.0% exp); GDP Price Index sank to 4.1% from 9.0%, 5.3% was expected. Core PCE as expected dipped to 4.5% from 4.7%. Residential investment plunged 26.4% annualized. Business investment sank 15.3%. GDP was boosted by the big decline in the GDP Price Index – a very convenient development 12 days before the Midterm Elections!
BEA’s GDP chicanery: Q3 Nominal GDP is $9.0 trillion but Real GDP is +2.57% q/q. Yet Q2 Nominal GDP is $9.5524 trillion (Real GDP is -0.6% q/q). Q3 Nominal GDP DELCINED $552.4B!
US Nominal GDP in Current Dollars – 3 consecutive declining quarters!
US Core Durables Orders Tumble Most Since COVID Lockdown Collapse, CapEx Shrinkshttps://t.co/8MtZxeULpa
September Durable Goods Report: New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up six of the last seven months, increased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $274.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.2 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.4 percent. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, drove the increase, $1.9 billion or 2.1 percent to $95.4 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up sixteen of the last seventeen months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $274.2 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent August increase. Transportation equipment, up eleven of the last twelve months, drove the increase, $1.0 billion or 1.1 percent to $90.5 billion… https://t.co/GukARinQcE
US Initial Jobless Claims for Oct 22: 217K (220k exp; 214k previous); Continuing Claims: 1.438m (1.390m exp,1.385m previous revised from 1.383m) Full report: https://t.co/8CXXCZuSd8
Germany plans to approve Chinese takeover of Elmos’ chip production – Handelsblatt The economy ministry is examining the sale of Elmos’ chip factory to competitor Silex, a Swedish company that is a subsidiary of Chinese group Sai Microelectronics, Handelsblatt reported, addingapproval is expected in the coming weeks. The expected decision would mean the government would likely defy advice from the domestic intelligence agency, Handelsblatt added… https://www.usnews.com/news/technology/articles/2022-10-27/germany-plans-to-approve-chinese-takeover-of-dortmund-chip-producer-elmos-handelsblatt
U.S. speeds up plans to store upgraded nukes in Europe – The fielding of an improved gravity bomb has been moved up to December as Vladimir Putinthreatens the region. The arrival date came as a surprise to some longtime observers, who fear it could further stoke an already dangerous situation in Europe…The warhead itself is one of the most versatile in the U.S. arsenal because its explosive power can be dialed up or down depending on the target, making it either a low- or medium-yield weapon…https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/26/u-s-plans-upgraded-nukes-europe-00063675
Putin Speech at Valdai Discussion Forum in Russia – BBG 10:17 ET Putin: Humanity Must Find a Workable Solution – 10:22 ET Putin: West, New Global Centres Must Start Talking Again – BBG 10:23 ET Putin: Neo-Liberal Model of U.S. Is Experiencing Crisis – ZH 10:40 ET Putin: Traditional Values Should Be Respected – ZH 10:41 ET Putin: Western Elites Have No Right to Enforce Others to Follow Their Path – ZH 10:41 ET Putin: Russia Is Not an Enemy of the West – BBG 10:43 ET Putin: We Tried to Set Up Relations with West and NATO, to Make Friends with Them; We Received Negative Reply from Them – ZH 10:55 ET Putin: West Seeks to Make Russia Vulnerable – ZH 10:55 ET Putin: Russia Will Never Put Up with What the West Tells It to Do – ZH 10:55 ET Putin: US Has Discredited International Finance by Using Dollar as a Weapon – ZH 10:55 ET Putin: New World Order Should Be Based on Law and Order – ZH 10:55 ET Putin: We Face the Most Dangerous Decade Since the End of World War II – ZH 10:58 ET Putin: Period of Western Domination Is Over – ZH 10:58 ET Putin: We Had to Start Operation, Why Did They Stage Coup in Ukraine in 2014? – ZH 11:19 ET Putin: The Coup Led to Today’s Tragic Events – ZH 11:19 ET Putin: We Would Have Sustained More Losses Unless We Intervened – ZH 11:19 ET Putin Says NATO Had Started Seizing Territories of Ukraine Long Ago – ZH 11:19 ET Putin: Russia Has Never Talked about Nuclear Use Only Replied – BBG 11:29 ET Putin: Russian Economy Has Adapted to Sanctions – BBG 12:09 ET Putin Urges IAEA to visit Ukraine over ‘dirty bomb’ claims – AFP 12:09 ET
@FiorellaIsabelM Russia state-affiliated media: “The Rules-based order is all about allowing those in power to live without any rules.”-Vladimir Putin at 19th Annual Meeting Valdai Discussion Club
Putin says Russia tried to ‘be friends’ with the West, NATO President Vladimir Putin on Thursday said the West rejected Russia’s attempts to build good relations with the United States and NATO because it was set on making Russia vulnerable… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-says-russia-tried-friends-144917641.html
Putin Accuses ‘dirty, Bloody’ West of Fueling War in Ukraine & Imposing ‘hegemonic’ Rule Putin accused the West of playing a “dangerous” game as he asserted that the dominion of the world “is precisely what the West has decided to stake in this game. But this game is a dangerous, dirty, and bloody one.” He further iterated that such acts contest the “sovereignty of peoples and nations, their identity and uniqueness and have no regard whatsoever for the interests of other countries.” He furthermore stated that humanity, which stands at a crossroads, has two options – “either continue to ‘accumulate all of the problems that are certain to crush all of us’ or nations can work together ‘to find solutions.'” Russia earlier accused the “nuclear US-UK-France troika” – the nuclear alliance of NATO, of waging a proxy-war strategy against Moscow by bringing weapons into Kyiv, and expanding the alliance to its eastern flank, posing a grave threat to Russia’s national security… https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/putin-accuses-dirty-bloody-west-of-fuelling-war-in-ukraine-and-imposing-hegemonic-rule-articleshow.html
ESZs sank after China closed at 2 ET but bottomed when the ECB’s dovish communique appeared at 8:15 ET. ESZs rallied 31 handles by 9:13 ET, despite plunging 22 handles on the US Q3 GDP Report at 8:30 ET. ESZs then sank 40.25 to 3825.50 at 9:55 ET on selling related to Meta and Fangs.
However, traders are extremely bullish because the ECB and Bank of Canada have gone squishy; so, they expect the Fed will be dovish next week. The usual suspects bought the early US dip. Then someone pushed ESZs to a daily high of 3870.75 by 10:30 ET. Alas, sellers returned; ESZs sank to a daily low of 3821.50 at 12:30 ET. This coincided with the end of Putin’s speech. (Correlation is not causation!)
ESZs bounced 27 handles by 13:21 ET. Alas, sellers returned; ESZs and stocks retreated. ESZs hit a new daily low of 3820.75 at 14:12 ET. After a modest rally for the 14:15 ET VIX Fix, ESZs retreated and hit a new low near 15:00 ET. Amazon was -4.89 and Apple was -4.85 at the time.
At 15:01 ET, someone juiced ESZs; Amazon and Apple rallied. It was time to get long for expected great Amazon and Apple results after the close! Oops! The rally ended within 5 minutes; new lows for stocks and ESZs appeared. At 15:15 ET, ESZs spiked higher again; the rally ended at 15:33 ET.
After the close Amazon reported EPS of .28 with a gain from Rivian (.22 con), and Sales of $127.1B ($127.46B exp). Amazon’s operating margin fell to 2%, 2.48% was consensus. Operating income fell to $2.5B. Amazon sees Q4 Sales at $140B to $148B; ($155.15B exp); and operating profit at $0.00 to $4.0B. AMZN hit a low of 87.4247 (-21.0%) in after-hour trading. It bounced to -13.7%.
Apple: EPS 1.29 (1.26 con.), Sales $90.15B ($88.64B exp). AAPL declined as much as 2.5% in after-hour trading because iPhone sales were $42.63b ($42.67B exp) and Services were $19.19 ($19.97B exp). Fred Hickey @htsfhickey: AAPL conf call over. Near end of call asked if Dec. qtr. rev growth would be positive or negative. Didn’t answer – reiterated it would decelerate. Apple P/E 24 (historically high) with just 1% net inc. growth last qtr. Global recession effects just beginning. Doubt stock holds up
Positive aspects of previous session Squishy ECB ignites stock and bond rallies
Negative aspects of previous session Fangs got hammered again Equities tumbled during afternoon trading in the US Gasoline soared again, hitting a high of 301.25
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How strong will the rallies for Oct performance gaming and Fed Day be? Have US equities hit a ‘the Fed pivot is nigh’ and the Q3 results peak? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3823.68 Previous session High/Low: 3859.95; 3803.79
@AlexThomp: “(Twitter)CEO Parag Agrawal, chief financial officer Ned Segal, and Vijaya Gadde, head of legal policy, trust, and safety (censor?), were all fired (by Musk.)” https://washingtonpost.com/technology/202
Today – The upward seasonal bias for earnings results is ending; but the upward seasonal biases for October performance gaming, start-November buying, and the Fed Day Rally remain. Traders are especially excited to play the Fed Day Rally because there is beaucoup hope that the Fed will go squishy like the ECB and BoC. Also, the intermediate upward bias of November 1 to April 30 will soon begin.
ESZs tumbled to 3776.00 (-65.00) and NQZs plunged to 11035.50 (-411.00) after Amazon’s horrid Q4 (holiday) forecast and Apple’s iPhone miss. However, GS and others said the Amazon decline was overdone. So, traders bought those stocks. Apple bounced to a 1% gain. ESZs and NQZs rescinded half of their losses. ESZs are -13.50 and NQZs are -60.50 at 21:15 ET. Beaucoup traders remain bullish!
Expected economic data: Q3 Employment Cost Index 1.2%; Sept Personal Income 0.4%, Spending 0.4%, PCE Deflator 0.3% m/m, PCE Core Deflator 0.5% m/m, 5.2% y/y; Sept Pending Homes Sales -4.0% m/m; Oct UM Sentiment 59.6, Current Conditions 65, Expectations 56.1, 1-yr Inflation 5.1%
Expected earnings: AON 2.00, XOM 3.89, CL .74, CVX 4.93, GWW 7.23
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4570.18 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3951.16 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3658.73 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3858.32 triggers a buy signal
Democrat blows whistle on alleged ballot harvesting scheme, Florida opens criminal probe Former candidate for Orange County commissioner describes widespread vote trafficking operation in Orlando area, authorities see enough evidence to warrant criminal probe… Former Orange County Commissioner candidate Cynthia Harris filed a sworn affidavit in late August with the Secretary of State’s office alleging that illegal operations to collect third-party ballots have been going on for years in the Orlando area where voting activists are paid $10 for each ballot they collect. She described an intricate system funded by liberal leaning organizations that dispatch ballot brokers into black communities to pressure voters to turn over their ballots. The $10 fee per ballot is divvied up among the parties who help complete the harvesting. The collection and delivery of ballots by third parties is illegal in Florida… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/florida-opens-criminal-probe-democrat-whistleblowers-evidence-ballot
After Sending Out 240,000 Unverified Ballots, Pennsylvania Now Warns of ‘Delays’ Counting Midterm Votes – Just one day after 15 Pennsylvania House Republicans sent a letter to acting Secretary of State Leigh Chapman demanding to know why 240,000 unverified ballots had been mailed out (“which, according to the law, must be set aside and not counted for the 2022 General Election unless the voter produces lD,” the lawmakers wrote), Chapman revealed that there will likely be delays posting the results after the midterm elections…According to Chapman, the delays would be attributed to poll workers not being able to pre-canvas, or count mail-in ballots prior to election day… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/after-sending-out-240000-unverified-ballots-pennsylvania-now-warns-delays-counting
GOP Sen. @tedcruz: Why is it only Democrat blue cities take “days” to count their votes? The rest of the country manages to get it done on election night.
Meta fined over $24 million for campaign finance violations Meta was fined $30,000 for each of its 822 violations…The law requires TV stations, newspapers and platforms such as Meta to publish the names and addresses of people who purchase political ads, who the ads are targeting, how the ads were funded and the number of views for each ad… https://justthenews.com/nation/technology/meta-fined-over-24-million-campaign-finance-violations
@Breaking911: John Fetterman’s wife, Gisele Barreto Fetterman: “Historically, swimming in America is very racist.” https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1585732524923584512 ****************************************************************************************************************** Special Notice correcting the above comment: From: Bill King Subject: Major error In Friday King Report
In our Friday missive we wrote: BEA’s GDP chicanery: Q3 Nominal GDP is $9.0 trillion but Real GDP is +2.57% q/q. Yet Q2 Nominal GDP is $9.5524 trillion (Real GDP is -0.6% q/q). Q3 Nominal GDP DELCINED $552.4B!
We made a huge error. Q3 Nominal GDP grew 9% y/y; Q2 Nominal GDP grew 9.5524% y/y. We misread dollar percentage figures as dollar amounts
Here’s our excuse: We are babysitting three grandchildren!
The Pentagon is now moving to use nuclear weapons even if the other side does not have them or does not use them. No peace talks are being scheduled by either side in the Ukraine war. Both Russia and the USA are holding nuclear armed missile exercises simultaneously. This is the sort of thing that happened at the height of the cold war. There is no end in sight to the tensions, and the US military testing new hypersonic weapons this week is not going to help lower them.
I have been telling you that Biden’s real poll numbers are so low (9%-12%) that the Democrats will have to cheat like never before. The Dems are so far behind that the cheating is becoming extremely obvious. Because of the reporting on alt media and films like “2,000 Mules,” people are on to the ways the election fraud and voter fraud is pulled off. The Democrat party is turning on itself because the policies are not popular even with the staunchest blue voter. The Democrats (and RINO Republicans) are funding the Ukraine war with billions of dollars in funding and massive amounts of military weapons. Many Dems are upset with the leadership supporting the Nazis in Ukraine. Dem voters are waking up to the fact that the new Democrat party is the party of war and maybe nuclear war. It is a huge pinnacle wedge issue in the Democrat party, especially in places like New York City, which is #1 on the nuclear exchange hit list. This is bad news for AOC in November.
The government said the U.S. economy grew at 2.6% in the third quarter, but economist John Williams, founder of Shadowstats.com, says this is nothing more that pre-election hogwash. Williams says the real number is .5% growth, and the government is counting things like the $700 billion Inflation Reduction Act as GDP. It’s bad everywhere, especially in Europe where the gas has been turned off and banks are quietly suffering from bank-runs from depositors. The stock market may be up, but the real economy is getting worse, not better. That’s why a new report shows 63% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.
There is much more in the 58-minute news cast.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 10/28/22.
World renowned microbiologist and virologist, professor Sucharit Bhakdi MD will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. Dr. Bhakdi will come on to talk about the deadly and debilitating effects of the CV19 vax. The two big problems he sees center around the heart and brain. Many have reported having problems in these areas. If either of these get damaged from the injections, you are in big trouble. He will explain why.
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