OCT 31/GOLD FELL BY $4.00 ON THIS FIRST DAY NOTICE: GOLD DOWN TO $1637.40//SILVER IS FLAT AT $19.18//PLATINUM IS DOWN $15.50 TO $931.00//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $49.50 TO $1855.25//HUGE BOMBING RAIDS ON KIEV AS THE CITY IS NOW WITHOUT POWER AND WATER//HUGE PROTESTS CONTINUE IN IRAN FOR 5TH WEEK//RUSSIA EXITS THE WHEAT DEAL AND THAT CAUSES WHEAT TO SKYROCKET/LOCKDOWNS CONTINUE IN CHINA’S I PHONE CITY AS COVID NUMBERS INCREASE//HUGE DEAL WITH LEBANON AND ISRAEL ON THEIR MARITIME BORDER AND THAT COULD BE A GAME CHANGER//BOLSONARO LOSES IN BRAZIL TO LULU//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

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GOLD PRICE CLOSE: DOWN $4.00 to $1637.40

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  DOWN $0.00 to $19.18

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1632.60

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 19.21

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $20,703 UP 127

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,369 DOWN 207

Platinum price closing  DOWN $15.50  AT  $931.00

Palladium price; closing DOWN $49.80  at $1905.05

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: 2225.28 DOLLARS DOWN 7.80 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ

BRITISH GOLD: 1423.53 POUNDS PER OZ UP 10.21 POUNDS PER OZ

EURO GOLD: 1653.17 EUROS PER OZ UP 3.20 EUROS PER OZ.

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX//NOVEMBER 

CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,639.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/28/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 11/01/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


099 H DB AG 379
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 700
190 H BMO CAPITAL 178
323 C HSBC 239
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 370
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 245
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 12
661 C JP MORGAN 231 781
690 C ABN AMRO 65
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 25
737 C ADVANTAGE 40
800 C MAREX SPEC 16
880 H CITIGROUP 7
905 C ADM 72


TOTAL: 1,680 1,680
MONTH TO DATE: 1,680

JPMORGAN STOPPED  781/1600 

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV. CONTRACT:    1600 NOTICES FOR 160,000 OZ  or 4.9767 TONNES

total notices so far: 1600 contracts for 160000 oz (4.9767 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 11 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 135000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  11 :  for 550,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A BIG CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 925.20 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF .644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.723 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1724 CONTRACTS TO 138,127 AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE TINY GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG $0.35 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.35)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGE OF 1634 CONTRACTS.  HUGE SPECS CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR SHORTFALLS FROM WHICH OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SOME SPEC LONGS COVERED  THEIR SHORT POSITIONS //(CONTINUED SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS)

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) CONSIDERABLE  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS BUT STRONG SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS ON THE LOWER PRICE. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.045 MILLION OZ    / //  V)   HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ (CONTINUED SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: — 34

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 23 days, total 58,035 contracts: 29.017 million oz  OR 1.2616MILLION OZ PER DAY. (253 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 29.017  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1758 WITH OUR  $0.35 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  VERY SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 140 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.045 MILLION  OZ   .. WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1618 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 8.090 MILLION  OZ..MOST OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

 WE HAD 11  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  550,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A STRONG SIZED 7424 CONTRACTS  TO 467.769 AND CLOSER TO FROM TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -376  CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $19.70//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY //  ZERO SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS BUT MINOR SPEC SHORT COVERINGS.   // CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE //EXPECT HUGE QUEUE JUMPING BEGINNING ON 2ND DAY NOTICE: (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $19.70 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8860 OI CONTRACTS 27.558 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1692 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 468,146

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8740 CONTRACTS  WITH 7048 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1692 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9116 CONTRACTS OR 28.364 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1692) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (7048): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 9116 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// ZERO SPEC SHORT COVERINGS// CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC  ADDITIONS WITH THE LOWER PRICE  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ///NEW STANDING FOR NOV 12.386 TONNES//.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

NOV

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :

57,090 CONTRACTS OR 5,709,000 OZ OR 177.57 TONNES 23 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2482 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 23  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 177.57 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  177.57/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A HUGE SIZED  17758 CONTRACT OI TO  138,127 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 140 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 140  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  140 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI  LOSS OF 1758  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 140  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS  OF 1618  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8.090MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.35

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.44 PTS OR 0.77%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 176.04 OR 1.18%    /The Nikkei closed UP 482.26 PTS OR 1.78%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.17%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.3001 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.3218//    /Oil DOWN TO 856,61 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.51    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7048  CONTRACTS TO 467.769 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $19.70  IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1692 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1692 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC : 1692  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1692 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED  TOTAL OF 9116  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1692 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 7424  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $19.70//WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS,  WITH BANKERS  AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS.  WE ALSO HAD STRONG ADDITIONAL  NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG WITH THE LOWER PRICE.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING NOV   (12.386),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV.12.386 TONNES/INITIAL

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $19.70) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS// SPEC SHORTS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 9116 CONTRACTS //     WE HAVE  REGISTERED A VERY STRONG GAIN  OF 30.202 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (12.386 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $3.80 

WE HAD -376  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8740 CONTRACTS OR 874000  OZ OR  27.105 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 199,696//  poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  204,080/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //OCT 31

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 14,912.718oz


Brinks
Malca

includes
1 kilobar
and 2019 
kilobars  









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today1600   notice(s)
160,000  OZ
4.9767 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)2382 contracts 
238.200 oz
7.409 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month1600 notices
160,000
4.9767 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits  nil oz

 customer withdrawals:2

ii) Out of Brinks 32.151 (1 kilobars)

iii) Out of Malca: 14,880.718 oz ( 2019 kilobars 

total:  14,912.869 oz

total in tonnes: 0.4638 tonnes

Adjustments: 2//    customer to dealer

i)Out of Loomis  18,615.429 oz

ii)Out of Brinks 110,671.591 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER.

For the front month of NOV. we have an oi of 3982 contracts having LOST ONLY 8 contracts.  Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold standing for delivery in this

very inactive month of November is as follows:

3982 notices x 100 oz per notice =  398200 oz

or  12.382 tonnes of gold

This is pretty close to my prediction and it is a whopper which is generally the worst delivery month of the year.  

December GAINED 1808 contracts UP to 362,511

February gained 6572 contacts up to 69,645.

We had 1600 notice(s) filed today for 160,000 oz on the first day notice  FOR THE NOV. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  231  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1600 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 781 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1600) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (NOV 3982 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 1600 x 100 oz per contract equals 398,200 OZ  OR 12.3855 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   non active month of NOV. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV. contract month:

No of notices filed so far (1600) x 100 oz+   (3982)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1600} x 100 oz} which equals 398,200 oz standing OR 2.3855  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOV..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  12.386 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR NOV (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM TOMORROW ONWARD UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,996,891.215 OZ   62.11 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  24,959,663.661 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,331,325.357  OZ (352.45 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,628,338.304 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,334,444 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 290.034 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 31//INITIAL NOV. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory897,179.592 oz



Brinks
Loomis
CNT









 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory862,681,985 oz
CNT
Delaware

 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)11 CONTRACT(S)  
 (55,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)198 contracts 
(990,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)11 contracts
 55,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  3 withdrawals out of the customer account

i) Out of Brinks 2072,910 oz

ii) out of Loomis:  795,552,070 oz

iii) Out of CNT: 99,554.612 oz

Total withdrawals:  897,179.592 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 155.891million oz/301.160 million =51.65% of comex .//dropping fast

 Comex deposits: 2

i) Into CNT  658,408.230oz

ii) Into Delaware:  254,274.758 oz

total:  862,681.983  oz

 adjustments: 4

   customer to dealer  

i.Brinks 95,048.65 oz

ii) CNT  81,995.699oz

iii) Out of JPM; 560,739.850 oz

iv) Out of Manfra 34,337.569 oz

v) Out of Delaware  14,094.731 iz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.741 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 301.160 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI: 209 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 14 CONTRACT(S.) 

THIS IS ALSO AN EXCELLENT SHOWING FOR A NOVEMBER DELIVERY MONTH.

THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER IS AS FOLLOWS:

209 NOTICES X 5000 OZ PER NOTICE =  1,045,000 OZ

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 1987 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 105.749

JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 10 CONTRACTS UP TO 1128 CONTACTS.

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 11 for  55,000 oz

Comex volumes:53,927// est. volume today// fair   

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 59,548 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  11 x 5,000 oz = 55,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(209) and the number of notices served upon today 11 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the NOV../2022 contract month: 11 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (209)  – number of notices served upon today (11) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV. contract month equates 1,045,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:51,533// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 60.788 contracts ( fair)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//

OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

SEPT 30  WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 922.59 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: AWITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.

OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/

OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///

OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//

Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

CLOSING INVENTORY 483.723 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: The Fed Got Everybody Drunk On Cheap Money But The Party Is Over

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 08:21 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

A lot of people seem to think that if the Fed had just started fighting inflation a little earlier, we wouldn’t have seen the rapidly rising prices that continue today. The mistake, they say, was thinking inflation was transitory. But as Peter Schiff has pointed out, this problem didn’t start last year, or even with the pandemic. This problem was decades in the making.

And at the root of the problem was year after year of easy money. Wall Street was drunk on cheap money for a decade and it is ultimately going to end in another financial crisis.

The severity of malinvestments, of the misallocations of resources, of the monumental mistakes that have been made throughout this economy by the government, the private sector, corporations, individuals — everybody has made mistakes because of this cheap money.

Just look at the federal government. It has added trillions of dollars to the national debt over the last decade. It recently eclipsed $31 trillion. A year ago, Janet Yellen was saying the big debt wasn’t a problem because interest rates were low. Well, they’re not low anymore. This is a perfect example of how cheap money incentivized bad decision-making.

After the 2008 financial crisis, George Bush pointed out that Wall Street got drunk. Peter said Bush was correct.

Why was everybody on Wall Street drunk? Where did they get the alcohol? Who liquored them up? That was the Federal Reserve. That was Alan Greenspan. He was the bartender. He kept serving the drinks. That’s why Wall Street was drunk.”

But Wall Street wasn’t drinking alone. Main Street was also three sheets to the wind.

The whole nation was drunk on cheap money, and while they were drunk, they did a lot of stupid things, just like a lot of people do when they’re drunk.

Peter compared it to a favorite Warren Buffet quote: when the tide goes out, we see who’s swimming naked. Peter said, “Basically, everybody has been naked.”

And everybody is going to be exposed when the tide goes out, which is what’s happening right now.”

As Peter said in a prior podcast, it goes back even further than the last decade. You can trace the Fed’s inflationary monetary policy all the way back to 1998 and the Long-Term Capital Management bailout.

That’s when the Fed really started printing money. And then it printed even more money in advance of Y2K. And then even more money after the NASDAQ bubble popped in 2000. And even more money after the real estate bubble popped in 2008. So, it’s not just one year of excess money printing. The Fed has been too loose for almost 25 years, flooding the economy with cheap money.”

Peter said he knew 2008 wasn’t the real crash. The reckless monetary policy in the response to the Great Recession simply papered things over and kicked the looming crisis down the road.

Well, the real crash is the one we’re headed for right now. And we were going to have that crash regardless of the mistakes the Fed made in 2021. We were going to have it because of all the mistakes it made — not just going back to 2008 — but going all the way back to 1998.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-fed-got-everybody-drunk-cheap-money-party-over

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

EGON VON GREYERZ

$2 Quadrillion Debt Precariously Resting On $2 Trillion Gold

SUNDAY, OCT 30, 2022 – 08:35 AM

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

A Lehman squared moment is approaching with Swiss banks and UK pension funds under severe pressure.

But let’s first look at another circus – 

The global travelling circus is now reaching ever more nations just as expected. This is right on cue at the end of the most extraordinary financial bubble era in history.

It is obviously debt creation, money printing and the resulting currency debasement which creates the inevitable fall of yet another monetary system. This has been the norm throughout history so the more it changes, the more it stays the same”.

It started this time with the closing of the gold window in August 1971.  That was the beginning of a financial and political circus which continuously added more risk and more lethal acts to keep the circus going.

An economic upheaval always causes political chaos with a revolving door of leaders and political parties going and coming. Remember, a government is never voted in but invariably voted out.

What was always clear to a few of us was that the circus would end with all of the acts crashing virtually simultaneously.

And this is what is starting to happen now.

We have just seen a political farce in the UK. Even the most talented playwright could not have created such a wonderful merry-go-round of characters who we have seen coming in and out of Downing Street.

Just look at the UK Prime Ministers. First there was David Cameron who had to resign in 2016 due to mishandling Brexit. Then the next PM Theresa May had to go in 2019 since she couldn’t get anything done, including Brexit. Then Boris Johnson won the biggest Conservative majority ever but was forced out in 2022 due to Partygate during Covid.

In came Liz Truss as PM in September this year but she only lasted 44 days due to her and her Chancellor’s (Finance Minister) mishandling of the mini budget. They managed to crash the pound and UK gilts (bonds) on the international markets leading to the Bank of England having to step in. Both gilts, derivatives and UK pension funds were at the point of implosion.

And now the carousel has gone full circle with Rishi Sunak the ex-Chancellor taking the helm as Boris bailed out. Boris clearly decided that speeches and other private engagements would be more fruitful than being part of the circus. But he will most certainly attempt to come back.

What a circus!

It just shows that at the end of an economic era, we get the worst leaders who always promise but never deliver.

In a bankrupt global system, you reach a point when the value of printed money dies and whatever a leader promises can no longer be bought with fake money which will always have ZERO intrinsic value.

No one must believe that this is only happening in the UK. The US has a leader who sadly is too old and not in command. He has a deputy who is not respected by anyone. So if Biden, as many believe, doesn’t make it to the end of his period, the US is likely to have a real leadership circus. Also, the US economy is chronically ill having run deficits for 90 years. What keeps the US alive temporarily is the dollar which is strong because it is the least ugly horse in the currency stable.

Scholz in Germany was given a very bad hand by Merkel but has certainly not improved it since he took charge and Germany is on the verge of collapse.

Most countries are the same. Macron doesn’t have a majority in France and strikes are paralysing his country on a daily basis. And his new Italian counterpart, PM Georgina Meloni certainly doesn’t shred her words. Just watch her having a very aggressive go at Macron (poor video quality).

But for people (like myself) who have difficulty accepting the current wave of Wokeism in the world, Meloni’s attack on this fad and her strong defence of family values is a “must watch” (video link). So there is still hope when leaders dare to express views that most media including social media censor today.

DEBT BONDAGE

History has dealt with punishment of non payment of debt in a variety of ways.

In the early Roman Republic around 2,500 years ago, there was a debt bondage called Nexum. In simple terms, a borrower pledged his person as collateral. If he didn’t pay his debt he was enslaved often for an undetermined period.

Jumping quickly to modern times, it would mean that the majority of people, especially in the West would all be debt slaves today. The big difference today is that most people are debt slaves but they have physical freedom. Since virtually nobody, individuals, companies or sovereign states, neither has the intention nor the ability to repay debt, the world now has a chronic debt slavery.

It is even worse than that. The playing field is totally skewed in favour of the banks, big business and the wealthy. The more money you can play with, the more money you can make risk free.

UNLIMITED PERSONAL LIABILITY

No banker, no company management or business owner ever has to take the loss personally if he makes a mistake. Losses are socialised and profits are capitalised. Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose!

But there are honourable exceptions. A smaller number of Swiss banks still work with the principle of unlimited personal liability for the partners/owners. If the global financial system and governments applied that principle, imagine how different the world would look not just financially but also ethically.

With such a system, we wouldn’t just adore the golden calf but put human values first. And whenever we evaluate an investment proposal or granting someone a loan, we wouldn’t just look at how much we could gain personally but if the transaction was sound both economically and ethically and if the risk of loss was minimal.

But I can hear many people protesting and arguing that the world could never have grown as fast without this massive amount of debt. That is of course correct in the short term. But rather than fast growth and then a total implosion of assets and debt, we would then have a much more stable system.

GLOBAL DEBT $300 TRILLION PLUS $2.2 TRILLION OF DERIVATIVES & LIAB.

Just look at the last 50 years since 1971. Globally governments and central banks have contributed to the creation of almost  $300 trillion of new money plus quasi money in the form of unfunded liabilities and derivatives of $2.2 quadrillion making £2.5 trillion in total.

As debt explodes, the world could easily face a debt burden of $3 quadrillion by 2025-2030 as the derivatives and unfunded liabilities become debt.

DERIVATIVES – THE MOST DANGEROUS FINANCIAL WEAPON CREATED

Derivatives is not a new instrument. For example during the Tulipomania bubble in Holland in the 17th century, it was possible to trade options on tulip bulbs.

Today the financial system has developed derivatives to become such a sophisticated instrument that virtually no financial transaction can take place without involving some form of derivatives.

But the biggest problem with derivatives is that the quants that create them don’t understand the consequences of their actions. And senior management, including boards of directors, haven’t got a clue of the massive risk derivatives represent.

The collapse in 1998 of LTCM (Long Term Capital Management), set up by Nobel Prize winners and the 2007-9 Sub-Prime crisis is a clear proof of the ignorance of the risk of derivatives.

As an aside, it seems that anyone can receive a Nobel Prize today. Just take Bernanke, he has been awarded the Nobel Prize in economics. Remember that Bernanke, when he was Head of the Fed, printed more money than anyone in history!

What we have to understand is that the committee which chooses the winner of the Nobel  economy prize is the Swedish Riksbank (central bank), filled with Keynesian money printers!

Need I say more?

Derivatives have been a massive profit earner for all banks involved. They were initially created as defensive hedge instruments but today they are the most dangerous and aggressive financial instrument of destruction.

Just over 10 years ago, global derivatives were $1.2 quadrillion. Then the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) in Basel decided to halve the values  to $600 trillion overnight by changing the basis of calculation. But the $1.2Q risk was still remained at the time.

Since then Over The Counter (OTC) derivatives have seen an explosive growth just like all financial assets. The beauty of OTC derivatives, from the issuers point of view, is that they don’t need to be declared like derivatives traded on exchanges.

And today there are not just interest rate and forex derivatives. No, these instruments are involved in virtually every single financial transaction. Every stock and bond fund involves derivatives. And today most of these funds consist of only synthetic instruments and contain none of the virtual stocks or bonds they represent.

CENTRAL BANKS RESCUING UK AND SWISS BANKS

Just a couple of weeks ago, the UK and thus the global financial system was under severe pressure due to pension funds’ interest derivatives collapsing in value after the UK Budget. Pension funds are globally on the verge of collapse due to rising interest rates and insolvency risk. In order to create cash flow, the pension funds have acquired interest rate swaps. But as bond rates surged these swaps collapsed in value, requiring either liquidation or margin injection.

And thus the Bank of England had to support the UK pension funds and financial system to the extent of £65 billion to avoid default.

In the last couple of weeks we have seen a dismal situation in Switzerland. Swiss banks, through the Swiss National Bank (SNB) have received $11 billion ongoing support through currency swaps (a form of dollar loans) from the Fed.

No details have been revealed of the Swiss situation except that 17 banks are involved. It could also be international banks. But most certainly the ailing Credit Suisse is involved. Credit Suisse just announced a 4 billion Swiss francs loss.

What is clear is that these UK and Swiss situations are just the tip of the iceberg.

The world is now on the verge of another Lehman moment which could erupt at any time.

CENTRAL BANKS NEED TO VACUUM $2 QUADRILLION DERIVATIVES

These derivatives which some of us now estimate to be over $2 quadrillion (not $600b reported by BIS) are what will bring the financial system down.

Every derivative includes an interest element. And the construction of all derivatives did not foresee the major and rapid rise in interest rates that the world has seen. Remember Powell and Lagarde calling inflation transitory just a year ago!

WITH OVER $ 2 QUADRILLION DEBT, PROTECTION IS CRITICAL

This article is not directly about gold. No, it is about the disastrous consequences of governments’ deceitful mismanagement of the economy and of your money. But based on history, gold has been the best protection or insurance against such mismanagement.

Why do 99.5 % of all investors in financial assets avoid the investment that is continuously backed and supported by every government and every central bank globally.

Investors own $600 trillion in stocks, bonds and property which have all enjoyed a 50 year (40 years for bonds) explosion in value.

But why do they only hold $2.3 trillion of an asset that without fail and for 5,000 years has always appreciated and never gone to zero or even gone down substantially over time?

It is the simplest asset to understand and appreciate. It looks good, even shiny and you don’t have to understand the technology behind it nor the balance sheet.

All you need to understand is that every day and every year your government does whatever it can to increase the value of this asset.

So this asset that only gets 0.5% of world financial investments and is continuously supported by governments through their constant creation of money is obviously gold.

What very few investors know, partly because governments are suppressing it, is that gold is the only money that has survived throughout history. Every other currency has without fail gone to ZERO and become extinct. 

With this perfect 100% record for gold, it certainly is surprising that virtually nobody owns it!

Investors don’t understand gold or its relevance. There are many reasons for this.

Governments hate gold in spite of the fact that all their actions make gold appreciate considerably over time.

They are of course totally aware of the fact that their totally inept management of the economy and of the monetary system, destroys the value of fiat money.

This is why it is in their interest to conceal their mismanagement of the economy by suppressing the value of gold in the paper market.

But investors ignorance of gold and reluctance to buy it will very soon go through a tectonic change.

OVER $2 QUADRILLION OF LIABILITIES RESTING ON $2 TRILLION OF GOLD

Total gold ever produced in the world is $10.5 trillion. Most of this gold is in jewellery. Central banks around the world hold $2 trillion. That includes $425 billion that US allegedly hold. Many people doubt this figure.

So with over $2 quadrillion (2 and15 ZEROS) of debt and liabilities resting on a foundation of $2 trillion of government owned gold that makes a gold coverage of 0.1% or a leverage of 1000X!

So that is clearly an inverse pyramid with a very weak foundation. A sound financial system needs a very solid foundation of real money. Quadrillions of debt and liabilities can not survive resting on this feeble amount of gold. If gold went up 100X to say $160,000, the coverage would be 10% which is still hardly acceptable.

So the $2 quadrillion financial weapon of mass destruction is now on the way to totally destroy the system. This is a global house of cards that will collapse at some point in the not too distant future.

Obviously Central Banks will first print unlimited amounts of money, buying up to $2 quadrillion of outstanding derivatives, turning them to on balance sheet debt. This will create a vicious circle of more debt, higher interest rates and higher inflation, with probable hyperinflation as debt markets default.    

No government and no central bank can solve the problem that they have created. More of the same just won’t work.

So these are the gigantic risks that the world is now facing.

Obviously there is no certainty in these kind of forecasts. But what is certain is that risk of this magnitude must be protected.

There is no reason to believe that gold this time will play a different role to what is has done throughout history.

Gold stands as the sole protector of a sound currency system and the only money which has survived throughout the ages.

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Andy Schectman is perfectly correct; he explains why the physical price of gold and silver is moving away from the paper price

(Andy Schectman/Andrew Maguire)

Miles Franklin’s Andy Schectman explains ‘price as misdirection’ in gold and silver

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-10-28 23:26Section: Daily Dispatches

11:27p ET Friday, October 28, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

This week’s “Live from the Vault” from program Kinesis Money, a conversation between London metals trader Andrew Maguire and coin and bullion dealer Andrew Schectman of the Miles Franklin distributorship, examines the incongruity of falling gold and silver futures prices amid overwhelming demand for real metal.

Schectman says he has never seen such a divergence between the prices between “paper” and real metal. This divergence, Schectman says, reflects a “price as misdirection” scheme by large players in the metals markets by which they can obtain the last remaining supplies before a big change in the financial world.

That change, Schectman says, is a revolt against Western hegemony, which is already underway.

The interview is 48 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Ted Butler

a must read..

Ted Butler: Silver’s coming move to $50, and beyond

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-10-28 10:27Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ted Butler
SilverSeek.com
Thursday, October 27, 2022

Twice over the past 42 years, the price of silver has risen to $50; once back in 1980 and again 11 years ago, in 2011.  Obviously, no one would argue that something that occurred twice already is not capable of happening again. On both prior silver price peaks, prices then fell sharply and quickly. But the next coming move to $50 in silver is much more likely to not only exceed the past two highs, but also remain far higher for far longer than previously.

In 1980 the price of silver rose from $7 to $50 in little more than a year, driven, essentially, by the concerted buying, both in futures and physical metal by interests associated with the Hunt Brothers from Texas and then fell even more sharply as a result of exchange and regulatory actions to unwind the Hunts’ buying. But the epic price run up did show, conclusively, that speculative investment buying could drive silver prices sharply higher. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://silverseek.com/article/coming-move-50-silver-and-beyond

The Coming Move to $50 Silver (and beyond)

October 27, 2022

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Ted Butler

Butler Research

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Twice over the past 42 years, the price of silver has risen to $50; once back in 1980 and again 11 years ago, in 2011.  Obviously, no one would argue that something that occurred twice already is not capable of happening again. On both prior silver price peaks, prices then fell sharply and quickly. But the next coming move to $50 in silver is much more likely to not only exceed the past two highs, but also remain far higher for far longer than previously.

In 1980, the price of silver rose from $7 to $50 in little more than a year, driven, essentially, by the concerted buying, both in futures and physical metal by interests associated with the Hunt Brothers from Texas and then fell even more sharply as a result of exchange and regulatory actions to unwind the Hunt’s buying. But the epic price run up did show, conclusively, that speculative investment buying could drive silver prices sharply higher.

In 2011, silver hit near $50 again, but this time there wasn’t the slightest hint of excessive speculative buying in silver futures, an area I monitor closely. Instead, the price surge was due to the physical buying of silver, mainly by way of the silver ETFs (investment vehicles that didn’t exist in 1980). The sharp price fall, starting in May 2011, was engineered by interests associated with JPMorgan and did succeed in persuading the silver ETF investors who drove prices higher to sell.

The coming silver price surge to $50 (and beyond) will be driven by both physical and paper buying and will occur against a backdrop far more bullish than existed in either 1980 or 2011. For one thing, there is far less silver in the world than existed in 1980, as a result of a deficit consumption pattern that prevailed for at least 25 years (to 2005). And while there is just as much (or more) physical silver in the world today than existed in 2011, that silver is now owned by investors (including JPMorgan) in the world’s silver ETFs to an extent never witnessed.

Of the 2 billion oz of silver that exist in 1000 oz bar form (the form that matters most to price), more than 1.1 billion oz (or 55%) is owned by the world’s silver ETFs. (Another 300 million oz are held in the COMEX warehouses, making the total amount of silver bullion in recorded form a remarkable 70% of all the silver in the world). Back in 2011, there was less than half that amount in the world’s silver ETFs. In 1980, investors held no silver in the world’s silver ETFs, since they were only introduced in 2006 and later. The key point here is that there is demonstrably less physical silver available today than in 1980 and 2011. Yet, at the same time, there are many trillions or more investment dollars sloshing around and looking for an investment home.

One important consideration often overlooked is that the first price run up to $50 in 1980 resulted in a literal avalanche of silver coming to market, in the form of old coins, as well as silver artifacts of every type imaginable, including silverware and serving pieces. Quite literally, hundreds of millions of ounces came to market in the Great Silver Melt of 1980. After all, silver’s price had been, essentially, fixed at little more than a dollar an ounce for many decades before 1980. It mattered little that discounts of 50% and greater were received for the silver artifacts melted – the price advance was great enough to provide a windfall for the sellers.

In addition, the US Government would come to sell the remaining hundreds of millions of silver ounces it still held in 1980 over the next 20 years, either by auctions or in coinage for the American Silver Eagle program started in 1986. In the silver run up to $50 in 2011, there was a second wave of melting, but nowhere near as large as the melt in 1980. The striking thing about the Great Melt in 1980 and its minor sequel in 2011, is that once someone sells his or her unwanted silver artifacts, they can’t be sold again. The unmistakable conclusion is that the next run to $50 will not bring great supplies of silver to the market because there is not that much left remaining to be melted. And just like in 2011, the US Government can’t dispose of silver since it doesn’t own any – a far cry from the 5 billion oz it held in 1940.

All the while, the physical industrial demand for silver, from 1980 or 2011, has increased, while since 2011, mine production has been static, due to the ongoing price manipulation on the COMEX. Remarkably and owing to silver’s great industrial versatility, the former main use of silver in photography almost disappeared (due to digital photography), only to be replaced by demand for new uses, such as for solar panels, a use that didn’t exist in 1980 and that has grown by leaps and bounds since 2011. Take a look around and try to deny that the modern world isn’t becoming more electronic and electrical every day and that the world’s best electrical conductor, silver, won’t play a vital and expanding role.  

The absolute key to the coming silver price surge to $50 and beyond is the same force in play in 1980 and 2011, namely, investment demand. But whereas investment demand suddenly exploded in 1980 and 2011, silver investment demand has been surging for years to this point – not only growing as prices have remained stagnant, but engendering such a rabid belief in the higher prices to come that any thought of liquidation on lower prices seems absurd. There’s even a grassroots Internet movement that has sprung up over the past less than two years that is devoted to promoting the buying of silver that numbers in the hundreds of thousands. No such movement exists in any other commodity, not even gold.

Perhaps the biggest difference between the two past runs to $50 in silver and the coming run is the state on the ongoing COMEX price manipulation, orchestrated by large traders classified as commercials, but in reality, are mostly banks which are just speculators masquerading as legitimate hedgers. In fact, the origins of the long-running COMEX price manipulation had its roots in the Hunt Bros bust in 1980 and began in earnest in 1982, 40 years ago. On second price run up to $50 in 2011, the COMEX price manipulators (at this time lead by JPMorgan) bent, but did not break and succeeded in turning prices sharply lower, starting on May 1, 2011.

But the near-financial death to JPMorgan and other large short sellers into April 2011, taught the bank a lesson that could only be learned by first-hand experience. It was the unexpected surge to $50 in 2011 that taught JPM of the critical balance between how much physical silver existed in the world and how easily an increase in investment demand would send prices sharply higher. Being the criminal masterminds that I believe JPMorgan to be, it put this sudden realization into practice by continuing the downward price manipulation with selective and concentrated short sales of COMEX futures contracts to keep silver prices as cheap as possibly, but with a criminal genius new twist, namely, accumulating as much physical silver (and gold) as it could, while keeping prices artificially depressed.

And it worked like a charm over the next decade, with the result that JPMorgan and its hidden interests accumulated more than a billion oz of silver and over 30 million oz of physical gold. If anything, I believe my estimates may be too low, rather than too high. Sure, it cost JPMorgan some regulatory frictional expenses over the years, including a $920 million settlement with the Justice Dept and CFTC, but what’s hundreds of millions of dollars when the potential payday is in the many tens of billions of dollars?

Therefore, the biggest difference between the two prior run ups to $50 in silver and the coming run to $50 and beyond is that the coming run will mark the end of the long-running COMEX price manipulation. To be blunt, the COMEX silver manipulation has been the longest-running price manipulation in history and the principal manipulators, a series of large banks and financial institutions, made a boatload of money for nearly the entire 40-year episode, up until mid-2019 or so, as JPMorgan began its-long awaited exit from the short side of COMEX contracts and fully-completed by the spring of 2020. Abandoned by their former ringleader on the short side, the remaining large commercial shorts began to suffer large losses for the first time in nearly 4 decades.

More recently, since March 8, the remaining big commercial shorts on the COMEX, no doubt sensing the coming end to the long-running manipulation, resorted to the only true remedy for closing out as many of their COMEX silver (and gold) short positions as possible, namely, by arranging what I believe to be the final selloff and tricking the commercials’ main counterparties, the managed money traders to sell heavily so that the commercials could buyback and rid themselves of as many COMEX short positions as possible. And it certainly appears that the commercial manipulators have succeeded in doing just that, as the commercial-only concentrated short positions in both COMEX silver and gold have reached historically-low levels of late. Throw in an unmistakable developing physical silver shortage – the inevitable result of a long-term downward price manipulation – and the ingredients for the next price run to $50 and beyond appear firmly in place.

Today, there are more people than ever that understand that silver has been artificially depressed in price and that are putting their money behind that understanding. This was not the case at all in 1980 or 2011 and just about guarantees that silver will soon lift off in price to the former peak levels and beyond. There has never been a set up like this before and it would be a shame not to take advantage of it.

Ted Butler

October 27, 2022

www.butlerresearch.com

END

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: URANIUM/ENERGY

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.3001 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.3208

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.44 PTS OR  0.77%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 176.04 OR 1.18% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 482.26PTS OR 1.78%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  111.07/Euro FALLS TO 0.99281

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.239!!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 148.65/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN-//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.140%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.221%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.187%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.571//

3j Gold at $1640.75//silver at: 19.16  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 12/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 61.40//

3m oil into the 86 dollar handle for WTI and  92 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 148.65DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 1.0006– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9933well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.068% UP 4 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.148% UP 2 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,62…GETTTING DANGEROUS

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.5205%

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Rally Fizzles As Fed Looms

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 08:05 AM

US futures were mixed at the start of another busy week of earnings and key central bank decisions, after posting their best two-week rally since November 2020, with investors bracing for the Federal Reserve’s meeting and another busy earnings week. S&P 500 futures were down 0.4 as of 7:30 a.m. in New York, having dipped as much as 0.7% earlier, after the index closed 2.4% higher on Friday, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.7%. Both gauges are set to pare gains for October, which has been the best month since July. The market drop was led by chipmakers and Chinese stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.04% after surging by nine basis points on Friday, but has receded from about 4.25% in the past week; yields on UK gilts were steady ahead of what could be the Bank of England’s biggest interest-rate hike in more than 30 years. The dollar rose as the yen and pounds reversed much of last week’s gains. Crypto unexpectedly spiked.

Wheat soared after Russia pulled out of a grain-export deal even as vessels continued to depart from Ukraine.

Brazilian assets are set to weaken on Monday after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the presidential election. The extent of the market drop will depend on whether President Jair Bolsonaro will concede as a contested election would likely trigger larger losses.

In premarket trading, U.S-listed shares of Brazilian oil firm Petrobras tumbled as much as 11% after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the presidential election, amid concerns about how the left-wing politician will impact the firm. In other premarket moves, Chinese stocks listed in the US declined after Covid cases spiked across the country while factory and services activity weakened more than expected. US chipmakers fell after Foxconn Technology Group, the world’s largest maker of iPhones, said it may boost capacity at alternative sites to mitigate potential disruption at its main Covid-stricken plant in China. Other notable premarket movers:

  • Y-mAbs Therapeutics (YMAB US) shares slumped as much as 38% in US premarket trading, as the stock was downgraded by Kempen and JPMorgan analysts after the drug developer’s cancer drug omburtamab failed to win a nod from an FDA panel, with Kempen not expecting the treatment to win FDA approval and Cowen calling the vote outcome “unfortunate.”
  • Chinese stocks listed in the US decline in premarket trading after Covid cases spiked across the country while factory and services activity weakened more than expected.
  • Alibaba (BABA US) falls 1.9%, Baidu (BIDU US) -2.8%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) -1.5%, Li Auto (LI US) -4.2%, Nio (NIO US) -1.4%
  • Selina Hospitality (SLNA US) rises 36% in US premarket trading. Shares have been volatile since they debuted on Thursday following merger with BOA Acquisition Corp. Stock closed down 63% on Friday after a first session ended with the stock rising 348% from the price BOA closed at.
  • Hanesbrands (HBI US) falls 3.6% in premarket trading after Wells Fargo double- downgrades to underweight based on rising risks from the macro outlook and the company’s balance sheet.
  • Keep an eye on Ceridian (CDAY US) as Barclays raised the recommendation on the stock to equal-weight from underweight, citing the company’s international expansion strategy, shift to more cloud and product investments.
  • Watch Gilead Sciences (GILD US) stock as it was raised to equal-weight from underweight at Barclays, which sees strong commercial execution justifying higher estimates. Meanwhile, the brokerage cut its rating on Amgen (AMGN US) to underweight from equal-weight.

Sparking debate about another split between fundamentals and technicals, US stocks ended last week with sizeable gains despite very disappointing earnings from tech giants including Meta, Amazon and Microsoft. That said, overall earnings season has been quite positive (thanks to sharp estimate cuts in recent weeks), with a majority of companies beating estimates, although fewer than in the past few seasons. Meanwhile, some economic data, including plunging home sales, indicated the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation is working, fueling hopes of a sooner than expected pivot in rate policy.

“The market is pricing in by next spring a 5% Fed fund rate — this is a massive tightening cycle, one of the fastest in history, and I think essentially, it’s in the price right now,” said Yves Bonzon, Julius Baer Group CIO on Bloomberg TV, warning that even if the Fed pauses, the quantitative tightening actually continues.

Hopes for a Fed pivot rose after a lower-than-expected rate hike from the Bank of Canada last week and a perceived change of tone from the European Central Bank. Tweets from Nick Timiraos last Friday also sparked a dovish sentiment reversal. The WSJ’s Fed mouthpiece sought to reverse some of the euphoria over the weekend, however, as we discussed here.

“This week’s Fed meeting is critical for the rally to continue, pause or even end completely,” Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note on Monday, noting macro-economic indicators “support a Fed pivot sooner rather than later.”
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was little changed, with travel and financials outperforming, while consumer and commodities sectors fell. In Asia, stocks advanced, boosted by Hong Kong technology shares, with gains also seen from Japan to Australia.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell “should be a bit less hawkish”at his press conference on Wednesday compared to after the last meeting, according to Yardeni Research. With the expectation that another 75 basis points is penciled in this week, “Powell will have to acknowledge that the federal funds rate is now further into restrictive territory and will be even more so come the FOMC’s December meeting,” it said in a note.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was little changed, with travel and financials outperforming, while consumer and commodities sectors fell. Mining and energy stocks underperformed in Europe, where the benchmark fluctuated.Here are some of the biggest European movers:

  • International Distributions Services rises as much as 8.7%, the most intraday in almost a year, after the UK government said it won’t take any further action under a national security law in relation to a potential stake increase by Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky’s Vesa Equity Investment.
  • Credit Suisse shares climb as much as 5% after it announced expected terms for its capital increase and after the Saudi National Bank ruled out raising its stake further for the time being.
  • UK bank stocks including NatWest and Lloyds rise after the Sunday Times reported that the UK government is unlikely to seek more windfall taxes on bank profits.
  • Know IT gains as much as 7.8%, extending gains into a third day, after Swedish business daily Dagens Industri labeled the IT consultancy’s shares a “bargain,” saying the company will benefit greatly from “megatrends” such as the shift to digitalization.
  • Loomis falls as much as 6.7%, before paring the drop, after Carnegie cut its recommendation for the Swedish cash handling firm to hold from buy after strong year-to-date performance, saying the shares are approaching fair value.
  • Pandora falls as much as 2.7% after the Danish jeweler on Oct. 30 said a fire has affected its European distribution center in Hamburg, Germany.
  • Exmar shares drop as much as 11%, erasing a post-earnings gain on Friday, after an analyst at ING writes that the total potential book gain on a divestment by the gas transporter may be lower than expected.
  • Verbund falls as much as 5.3% after Credit Suisse says it expects the power firm to be negatively impacted by rising interest rates, as well as the risk of adverse political intervention and falling power prices.
  • Fresenius SE gains as much as 4.6% after the German health care company published a better-than-feared quarterly figure.
  • EMS-Chemie fell as much as 4.8% after Berenberg cut the stock to hold from buy, saying the chemicals firm’s valuation is “too expensive.”

Euro-area inflation surged to a fresh all-time high, while the bloc’s economy lost momentum — reinforcing fears that a recession is now all-but unavoidable. That’s after a core gauge of US inflation accelerated in September, bolstering the case for more tightening.

In Asia, stocks advanced, boosted by Hong Kong technology shares, with gains also seen from Japan to Australia, as optimism on corporate earnings and a lift from Apple offset disappointment with Chinese economic data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.1% before halving the advance in afternoon trading. Tech-heavy markets of South Korea and Taiwan saw indexes rise more than 1%, while key gauges in China and Hong Kong extended last week’s rout.  Samsung, TSMC and other Apple suppliers in Asia staged a rally after the iPhone maker jumped nearly 8% Friday, fueling gains on Wall Street. Apple’s results were seen as positive in contrast with disappointing recent announcements from other tech giants.

“Asian countries, especially Taiwan and South Korea, have a high portion of companies that supply to Apple so Asia can’t be left out of the Apple-led rally in the US,” said Lee Jae-Mahn, a strategist at Hana Financial Investment. Investors have already priced in a likely 75 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, he added. Equities in mainland China and Hong Kong ended down after seeing big swings Monday, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closing at its lowest since late 2005. Sentiment slumped as factory and services activity in Asia’s largest economy contracted in October amid tight Covid rules and an ongoing property slump, while China continued to impose lockdowns. Even with Monday’s gain, the key MSCI Asian stock gauge is poised for a loss of nearly 2% in October, its third-straight monthly decline. The index is trading near its lowest level since April 2020

The dollar rose and the yen fell as traders positioned for another large interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, widening the policy divergence with the Bank of Japan. The euro and the pound also declined

In rates, US Treasuries fell, pushing the two-year yield 6 basis points higher although off worst levels of the day leading into the US session; yields remain cheaper from front-end out to intermediates, flattening the curve. US 10-year yields cheaper by 3.5bp on the day at around 4.03% with bunds underperforming by additional basis point over early European session; losses have been pared into early US session after 10-year peaked at 4.075%. Long-end outperforms, flattening 5s30s by 4.2bp on the day with 30-year yields little changed from Friday’s close. Wider losses seen across the German curve while gilts outperform. The Dollar issuance slate empty so far; this week’s estimates are for $15b to $20b, front-loaded before Wednesday’s Fed rate decision. German bunds fell, lifting the 10-year bund yield 3.9 basis points higher and steepening the yield curve. UK gilts were mixed.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.5%, extending gains from late last week as speculation cools that the Fed may signal a slower pace of monetary tightening. Such speculation earlier in October had prompted selling in the greenback, putting the index on track for its first month of decline since May.

Commodities are under pressure as the USD picks up and following weak Chinese PMIs and ongoing COVID concerns. WTI and Brent are lower by just shy of 1% amid the above factors and as focus increasingly turns to next week’s US midterms and remarks from US officials, including President Biden. US President Biden said that oil companies who complain he is picking on them ‘ain’t seen nothing yet’, according to Reuters. QatarEnergy CEO said discussions are ongoing with several Asian buyers as value-added partners on the North Field expansion and that western international oil company partners have all been announced, while the CEO said several supply agreements are being discussed related to the expansion and announcement will be made in due course, according to Reuters. US Energy Envoy Hochstein says the US has called on oil producers to increase output, speaking at ADIPEC; need more investment in the oil and gas sector right now and tomorrow. Both precious and base metals are lower given the USD’s upside and softer China trade

European natural gas fell after two days of gains as unseasonably warm weather reduces demand and eases concerns about shortages for the winter and oil edged lower as weak economic data from China fanned concerns about energy demand, but it was still set for the first monthly advance since May on OPEC+’s planned supply cuts.

Bitcoin is pressured on the session but resides within a narrow range circa. USD 400 above the USD 20k handle and as such is well within recent parameters.

It’s a quiet start to the week, with just the October Chicago PMI, and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity on the calendar. Central bank speakers include ECB’s Visco and Lane speak with the Fed still in blackout period ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC. We get earnings from Stryker, NXP Semiconductors

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 3,885.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 410.02
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 136.23
  • MXAPJ up 0.1% to 433.17
  • Nikkei up 1.8% to 27,587.46
  • Topix up 1.6% to 1,929.43
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 14,687.02
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 2,893.48
  • Sensex up 1.0% to 60,575.58
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1% to 6,863.46
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 2,293.61
  • German 10Y yield up 1.7% to 2.14%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $0.9924
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $95.34/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,637.02
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.40% to 111.20

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential election in a dramatic comeback for the left-wing politician who was languishing in a jail cell for corruption just three years ago.
  • Euro-area inflation surged to a fresh all-time high, while the bloc’s economy lost momentum — reinforcing fears that a recession is now all-but unavoidable.
  • Wheat worries and weak China PMIs reminded Monday’s markets that not all is well. However, with Fed Chairman Powell likely to confirm hopes of a December step-down in the pace of rate hikes, the mood could be sanguine until the US jobs data on Friday.
  • For months, investors have been eagerly awaiting a Federal Reserve policy pivot. But now, at least for some, it might come too soon.
  • European stocks fluctuated and US equity futures fell at the start of another busy week of earnings and key central bank decisions.
  • Asian stocks tracked Friday’s gains in the US amid optimism over corporate earnings in the region. The dollar climbed as traders positioned for another large interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks traded mostly positive with momentum from last Friday’s rally on Wall St although some of the gains were capped by disappointing Chinese PMI data and lingering COVID-19 woes, while participants are also bracing for a week laden with risk events including the latest FOMC meeting and NFP jobs data. ASX 200 traded positively with advances led by outperformance in tech but with further upside limited by weakness in the commodity-related sectors and as participants await tomorrow’s RBA policy meeting. Nikkei 225 was boosted after Japan’s Cabinet formally approved a JPY 71.6tln economic stimulus package on Friday and with the index shrugging off mixed Industrial Production and Retail Sales data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland pressured after Chinese PMI data showed surprise contractions in both factory and services activity, while Hong Kong was somewhat choppy amid a plethora of earnings releases including the big 4 banks and with casino names hit after Macau imposed three days of rapid COVID testing and locked down the MGM Cotai resort.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC Governor Yi reiterated that China will continue with its prudent monetary policy to keep the value of the yuan stable and said that China has the conditions to maintain conventional monetary policy for as long as possible, while Yi also reaffirmed to step up support for the real economy, according to Caixin and Reuters.
  • China’s State Council reiterated support for China’s digital economy and proposed an eight-pronged approach, according to SCMP.
  • China named Chen Yixin, who is a long-time confidant of President Xi, as the new state security minister in the latest leadership shake-up, according to SCMP.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi today and discussed the need to maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage the US-China relationship, while Blinken raised the subject of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the threat it poses to global security and economic stability, according to the State Department.
  • Shanghai Disney Resort suspended operations today due to COVID controls, according to Global Times.
  • Macau required residents to undergo three days of rapid Covid tests and locked down MGM China’s (2282 HK) Cotai casino resort although it was also reported that residents from mainland China will be able to travel to Macau from November 1st via the smart visa process, according to Reuters.
  • Macau is to commence mass COVID nucleic acid testing on November 1st, via Bloomberg.
  • Foxconn’s (2354 TT) Zhengzhou plant may see up to 30% of the factory’s November shipments of Apple (AAPL) iPhones impacted by the COVID-19 situation and it is working to increase iPhone production at its Shenzhen factory, according to a source
  • Japan is to establish a new joint command to manage operations of land, sea and air self-defence forces with the government aiming to establish the new self-defence forces joint command in 2024, according to Nikkei. It was also separately reported that Japan is mulling extending its high-speed missile range to defend the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, according to SCMP.
  • At least 153 people died and 150 others were injured during a stampede after large crowds surged into a narrow street in Seoul’s Itaewon nightlife district, according to a fire official cited by YTN. South Korean President Yoon declared a national day of mourning and said he would come up with measures to prevent a recurrence of similar incidents, according to Yonhap.
  • At least 132 people died and many are still missing after a suspension bridge collapsed in India’s Gujarat state, according to BBC.
  • RBNZ said bank solvency stress test shows resilience to a stagflation scenario and although capital buffers would be reduced in a stagflation scenario, they would still remain above the regulatory minimum, according to Reuters.

European bourses began the week modestly firmer, though this proved shortlived and the complex has pivoted to being mixed overall in-fitting with the APAC handover amid PMIs, COVID, month-end and ahead of a busy week. Specifically, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.10% while sectors are similarly mixed and feature some outperformance in defensives while Energy & Basic Resources lag amid COVID concerns and pressure in Glencore. Stateside, futures are under more pressure, ES -0.5% as yields pickup a touch, NQ -0.7% lags slightly, ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC where a 75bp hike is expected and as corporate updates continue.

Top European News

  • UK PM Sunak is reportedly considering freezing foreign aid for two additional years to help balance UK government finances, according to The Telegraph.
  • UK government quashed suggestions that it is considering a windfall tax on banks as one of the measures to plug a hole in its finances at next month’s budget, according to The Sunday Times.
  • UK Home Secretary Braverman is under increasing pressure regarding security breaches after it emerged she took several hours to alert the UK’s top civil servant of an “error of judgement” regarding sensitive documents, according to FT.
  • UK housing developers warned that new rules and taxes will add GBP 4.5bln to annual costs, according to FT citing a report by the Home Builders Federation.
  • UK rail companies and unions are to hold talks to prevent more strikes, according to FT.
  • UK’s ONS has concluded the classification review of the Energy Price guarantee. Payments will be classified as subsidies on products, paid by gov’t to suppliers. Reduced energy unit prices will push inflation lower than if the scheme did not exist.
  • Irish PM Martin said political deadlock in Northern Ireland which led London to announce that it will call fresh elections in Northern Ireland, demonstrates that the governance system for the system is not fit for purpose and should be reformed, according to FT.
  • ECB’s Knot said the ECB is not done with normalising monetary policy and that the ECB will significantly increase rates again in December which could be by 75bps but noted the next interest step will probably be between 50bps-75bps. Knot added the following interest rate steps will probably be smaller from early 2023, while he added that the ECB is not even at half-time of its fight against inflation and that the prospect of a recession in the Eurozone has become increasingly likely, according to Reuters.
  • EU officials have proposed a far-reaching ban on the sale of goods made with forced labor, the plan is in early days and could take years to come into force, WSJ reports.

FX

  • USD is bolstered by the general risk tone, Yuan pressure post-PMIs and the latest piece from WSJ’s Timiraos; DXY to a 111.20+ peak, though it has eased slightly and holds just above the figure.
  • USD/JPY lifted beyond 148.00 amid USD strength with little impetus from its own data inputs, though upside has seemingly been capped ahead of 148.50.
  • EUR is pressured given the above action, though saw little reaction to hotter-than-expected EZ CPI for October, with market pricing steady at around a 90% chance of 50bp in December; single currency between 0.9915-0.9965.
  • After the JPY, GBP has borne the brunt of the USD’s advances with EUR/GBP modestly bid as such with UK politics very much in focus as we count down to the BoE; currently, Cable holds around the session’s 1.1550 trough.
  • Petro-FX dented on softer benchmark pricing while the antipodeans are sensitivity to APAC pressure particularly in China though the Kiwi is deriving some support from domestic stress tests.
  • Brazil’s former President Lula has won the Brazilian presidential election run-off with 50.9% of votes vs Bolsonaro at 49.1% of votes, according to BBC.

Fixed Income

  • Core benchmarks are pressured as we enter a week dominated by numerous Central Bank updates.
  • USTs are lower by 13 ticks with the 10yr yield surpassing Friday’s 4.05% best and nearing Thursday’s 4.08 peak before 4.10%; action that occurs ahead of the Wednesday FOMC and following the latest WSJ piece.
  • Bunds lag amid the above factors and following better-than-expected domestic retail data before another hot EZ CPI print, though reaction to the latter was limited after last week’s German release; currently, holding around 20 ticks above the 138.20 trough.

Commodities

  • Commodities are under pressure as the USD picks up and following weak Chinese PMIs and ongoing COVID concerns.
  • Specifically, WTI and Brent are lower by just shy of 1% amid the above factors and as focus increasingly turns to next week’s US midterms and remarks from US officials, including President Biden.
  • US President Biden said that oil companies who complain he is picking on them ‘ain’t seen nothing yet’, according to Reuters.
  • QatarEnergy CEO said discussions are ongoing with several Asian buyers as value-added partners on the North Field expansion and that western international oil company partners have all been announced, while the CEO said several supply agreements are being discussed related to the expansion and announcement will be made in due course, according to Reuters.
  • US Energy Envoy Hochstein says the US has called on oil producers to increase output, speaking at ADIPEC; need more investment in the oil and gas sector right now and tomorrow.
  • Both precious and base metals are lower given the USD’s upside and softer China trade; spot gold remains below the USD 1650/oz handle while LME copper has slipped beneath USD 7.5k/T.

Geopolitics

  • Ukrainian official sources says three missiles fired from Belarus were shot down on the Volyn province, in the west of the country, via Al Jazeera.
  • Russia announced it is suspending the UN-brokered grain agreement with Ukraine after accusing Ukraine of a massive drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea. Russia’s Defence Ministry stated that the drones used to attack Russia’s Black Sea Fleet were recovered and analysed, while it alleged that the drones used Canadian-made navigation modules and were launched by Ukraine near Odesa, according to Reuters.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia’s suspension of the grain export deal needs a strong international response from the UN and the G20, while he suggested that Russia doesn’t belong in the G20 as it is deliberately trying to provoke starvation. Furthermore, Zelensky separately commented that Ukrainian forces repelled a fierce offensive by Russian forces in the Donetsk region.
  • Ukrainian President’s Chief of Staff accused Russia of blackmail and faking terror attacks on its own facilities in response to Russian accusations that Ukraine was behind explosions in Crimea on Saturday, according to Reuters.
  • US President Biden said Russia’s decision to suspend participation in the grain deal is outrageous, according to Reuters.
  • NATO called on Russia to reconsider its decision and renew the grain deal urgently, while it said that Russian President Putin must stop weaponising food and end the illegal war on Ukraine, according to Reuters.
  • UN Secretary-General Guterres delayed his departure for the Arab League Summit in Algiers by a day to focus on the Black Sea grain deal and continues to engage in intense contacts aimed at ending Russia’s suspension of participation in the deal, according to a spokesperson cited by Reuters.
  • UN said Ukrainian, Turkish and UN delegations agreed on Sunday for a movement plan for 16 vessels on October 31st under the Black Sea grain initiative and agreed for inspections to be provided on Monday to 40 outbound vessels, while the UN added that the Russian delegation has been informed of both plans, according to Reuters.
  • Turkey’s Defence Minister is in talks with counterparts in Kyiv and Moscow to resume the grains deal and reminded the parties of the importance of continuing the grain deal for all humanity, while Turkey will continue to do its part for the restoration of peace in the region, according to the Defence Ministry cited by Reuters.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the Russian leadership, including President Putin, remains ready to negotiate on Ukraine, according to Anadolu Agency.
  • Russia will reportedly take into account the modernisation of US nuclear bombs in Europe in its military planning, according to RIA citing Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko.
  • Russian Defence Ministry alleged that representatives of a UK navy unit blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines although didn’t provide any evidence for its claims, while the UK Defence Ministry said that these were ‘false claims of an epic scale’ and that Russia is making false claims to detract from its disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, the French Foreign Ministry also stated that Russian accusations against Britain have no basis and are part of a strategy to turn attention away from Moscow’s sole responsibility for the war in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
  • US government was urged to open an investigation regarding allegations of a hacking of former PM Truss’s phone while she was Foreign Secretary, while The Mail on Sunday reported that agents suspected of working for Russia were responsible for the alleged hacking, citing unnamed sources.

US Event Calendar

  • 09:45: Oct. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 47.0, prior 45.7
  • 10:30: Oct. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -18.5, prior -17.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The most unoriginal intro I can use this morning given today’s date is to speculate as to whether the Fed will offers tricks or treats this week. Indeed a week with the latest FOMC and payrolls is unlikely to be dull, and could “spook” the market, especially after a 10-day period that was mostly made of up dovish pivot talks. However this momentum stalled a bit after runaway European inflation on Friday tempered some of the enthusiasm for the trade. So all to play for. We also have a BoE meeting (Thursday) that although less pivotal than it could have been a few weeks back is still something that can influence global markets. Remember that the following week sees US mid-terms (Tuesday) and CPI (Thursday). So quite a run of big events coming up as we hit the last day of the month.

Other key data releases include the ISM indices in the US (tomorrow and Thursday). Industrial activity and labour market indicators will be also released in Europe. Corporate earnings will feature Saudi Aramco, BP, Pfizer, Starbucks, Toyota and Qualcomm after last week’s disappointing results from Big Tech firms.

Over the weekend, Russia announced that it is exiting from the internationally brokered arrangement that allowed grain ships to leave Ukrainian Black Sea ports, in response to what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack near the port of Sevastopol in Crimea. The abrupt move by Russia has caused international outcry as the decision undermines efforts to ease a global food crisis. Moscow has requested a meeting with the UN’s security council today to discuss the issue. Grain markets have reacted to this development with Chicago wheat futures rising +5.47% to $8.75 a bushel after hitting a high of $8.93 a bushel in early trade. Additionally, Corn (+2.2%) and soybeans (+0.75%) have also moved higher. So one to watch.

Moving on to political news, Brazilian left wing leader Lula narrowly defeated the far-right incumbent Bolsonaro in an extremely tight election to become the next president with 50.9% of votes against 49.1% for Bolsonaro. Lula will be sworn in on 1 January 2023.

Back to this coming week and with regards to the Fed, a fourth successive 75bps has long been pretty much nailed on but the subsequent path of hikes is now up for grabs and will be the key focus from this week’s meeting. It feels inconceivable to us, given how spectacularly forward guidance has broken down across the global markets over the last 12 months, that Powell will try to guide too aggressively for December, especially with two payrolls (one this week) and two CPIs to come before they meet again. Our economists currently believe that 75bps is still likely in December (see “Denying the Fed its December downshift”), but that January could mark a downshift whilst still seeing upside risks to their terminal rate expectation of 5% given the recent inflation data and evidence that r-star has risen (see “(R-)Star gazing: Macro drivers suggest real neutral rate may have risen”). Even WSJ Timiraos tweeted at the weekend “Consumers have a big cushion of savings. Corporations have lowered their debt-service costs. For the Fed, a more resilient private sector means that when it comes to rate rises, the peak or “terminal” policy rate may be higher than expected.” To be fair in his WSJ article that went viral 10 days ago he did mention that 2023 Fed forecasts could be upgraded. However the market mostly focused on the near-term downshift possibilities.

The downshift debate will still carry on right up to the meeting though with a few bits of important data for the Fed to throw into the mix prior to their final statement and subsequent tone in the press conference. The Chicago PMI (47.6 forecast vs. 45.7 previously) today will tweak estimates for tomorrow’s manufacturing ISM (DB at 49.8 vs. 50.9 last). The latter could drop below 50 for the first time since May 2020. Our economists note that the employment series of both will be important, especially in payrolls week. Last month the employment component of the Chicago PMI plunged 14.4 points to 40.2 – the largest month-over-month decline on record, while the equivalent in the manufacturing ISM fell by 5.5 points to 48.7 last month. Staying with jobs, tomorrow’s JOLTS is always a key indicator of the tightness of the labour market, albeit a month behind other releases. After the FOMC, the services ISM (DB at 55.3 vs. 56.7 last) could also tweak payrolls estimates. The employment component bounced from 50.2 to 53 last month but the flash services PMI indicates that the risks to the employment outlook are to the downside.

In terms of payrolls, the headline consensus is at +190k (DB at +225k vs. +263k previously) with private at +195k (DB at +225k vs. +288k previously). DB expect the unemployment rate to stay at 3.5% but the consensus expects it to tick up to 3.6%. Average hourly earnings is expected by the street to dip from 5% to 4.7% (DB at 4.6%)

Back here in Europe, the BoE’s decision on Thursday will be in the spotlight after a tumultuous month since its latest rate hike on September 22. Our UK economists preview the meeting here and expect the central bank to hike by +75bps, taking the Bank Rate to 3%. Beyond Thursday’s meeting, the team sees a terminal rate of 4.5% amidst growing fiscal consolidation. Their expected sequence of hikes beyond Thursday has +50bps in December and February and +25bps in March and May. For the ECB Lagarde speaks twice (Thursday and Friday) and she can firm up or row back on the slightly more dovish meeting last week than expected. Will she be influenced by Friday’s shocking European inflation numbers that saw German inflation at 11.6% YoY against 10.9% expectations, Italy at 12.8% vs. 9.9% expected and France 7.1% vs. 6.5% expected? Italy’s PPI was at 53.0% YoY vs. 50.5% expected. It wasn’t just energy related and core estimates for the full EA reading will likely have been upgraded given Friday’s numbers. Chief Economist Lane speaks today as well.

Turning to earnings now, with 255 of S&P 500 members now reported and after Big Tech’s disappointing releases, this week’s busy line-up of results include key numbers from key oil & gas, healthcare and consumer firms. It’s been an interesting season so far as our equity strategists reviewed over the weekend here. They comment that the breadth and size of Q3 earnings beats are near historical averages but these are off estimates that have continued to be cut. The blended estimate for Q3 earnings (combining actuals plus consensus for those yet to report) as a result has barely ticked higher and is significantly below the typical upward trajectory at this stage of the earnings season. In addition, consensus estimates for Q4 have fallen over -2% since the beginning of this earnings season, much larger than the typical -1%, and follow cuts of -6% in the prior three months. 2023 estimates have fallen by -2% this earnings season bringing the cuts since April to -7%. 2023 EPS consensus is now at $234, still significantly higher than our team’s forecast of $195 which incorporates a recession forecast next year. The consensus forecast on the other hand looks to embody a soft landing.

In terms of this week, for oil and gas, we will hear from Saudi Aramco and BP tomorrow, followed by ConocoPhillips, Cheniere, Enel and EOG on Thursday. In healthcare, results will be due from Eli Lilly, Pfizer (tomorrow), Novo Nordisk (Wednesday) and Moderna (Thursday), among others. After some strong performance from staples this week, earnings from Mondelez (tomorrow) and Starbucks (Thursday) will be in focus. Automakers outside the US will announce too, including Toyota (tomorrow), Ferrari (Wednesday) and BMW (Thursday). Tech firms reporting will include AMD, Sony and Uber tomorrow, Qualcomm and eBay on Wednesday and PayPal on Thursday. Other notable earnings releases will include Booking, Maersk (Wednesday) and Marriott (Thursday). See the full day by day week ahead at the end for all the key data and earnings releases.

Asian equity markets are trading mostly higher this morning extending Friday’s rally on Wall Street. Across the region, the Nikkei (+1.67%) is leading gains with the KOSPI (+1.10%) and the Hang Seng (+0.89%) also creeping higher. Elsewhere, stocks in mainland China are trading in negative territory with the CSI (-0.15%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.27%) both edging lower following the release of weak PMI data (more below). In overnight trading, US equity futures are indicating a slightly negative start with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.20%) slightly lower ahead of the final day of October. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr USTs (+1.65 bps) are slightly higher, trading at 4.03% as I type.

Early morning data showed that China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in October from 50.1 in September, as softening global demand and strict domestic COVID-19 curbs hit the world’s second biggest economy. Separately, the non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly contracted to 48.7 from 50.6 in September. Moving on to Japan, we have seen mixed data with the September industrial production (-1.6% m/m) falling for the first time in four months (v/s +3.4% in August, -0.8% market consensus). In contrast, retail sales extended its gain for the seventh consecutive month after it advanced +1.1% m/m in September (v/s +0.8% expected) raising expectations for a sustainable boost in consumption as the increase in tourist activity coincided with the relaxing of Covid-19-related restrictions. It followed August’s downwardly revised increase of +1.3%.

Looking back to last week now. 10yr Treasury and Bund yields fell -20.4bps (+9.4bp Friday) and -31.4bps (+14.1bps Friday) over the week, as markets seized on hopes for a coordinated central bank pivot. Friday’s inflation data out of Europe discussed above and the fact that US core PCE still above 5% on a YoY basis, and thus not enabling a true pivot, took some steam out of the rally. We’ll see what the Fed’s comms this week do to it. 10yr yields in the UK (-57.6bps, +7.5bps Friday) and Italy (-57.2bps, +16.7bps Friday) outperformed. The former can be attributed to the appointment of Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister, which not only resolves some political risk, but marks someone with markets experience who warned about the impact of former Prime Minister Truss’s economic plan which drove such a large selloff. Italy outperformed following less progress on QT discussions out of the ECB meeting than was anticipated, leading to a rollout farther in the future.

Risk assets enjoyed a boost from the perceived policy pivot, with the S&P 500 (+3.95%, +2.46% Friday) and STOXX 600 (+3.65%, +0.14% Friday), both gaining. The S&P 500 also saw strong earnings results from a number of bellwethers including Coca Cola, General Motors, Universal Health, Hess, Visa, Caterpillar, Honeywell, McDonald’s, and UPS beat estimates. However, big tech earnings were not nearly as strong, with even the companies beating estimates for the quarter gone revising guidance lower for the quarter ahead. That saw the FANG+ index severely underperform, falling -4.12% (+1.25% Friday), marking the largest weekly outperformance of the S&P 500 above the FANG+ index since Bloomberg started publishing data on the latter in late 2014.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

European stocks trade mixed, USD is boosted, commodities are pressured, and UK clocks changed – Newsquawk US Market Open

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MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 06:48 AM

  • European bourses began the week modestly firmer, though this proved shortlived and the complex has pivoted to being mixed overall in-fitting with the APAC handover
  • Stateside, futures are under more pressure, ES -0.5% as yields pickup a touch, NQ -0.7% lags slightly as such
  • USD is bolstered by the general risk tone, Yuan pressure post-PMIs and the latest piece from WSJ’s Timiraos; DXY to a 111.20+ peak
  • Core fixed benchmarks pressured with yields extending as we enter a week dominated by Central Bank activity
  • Commodities under pressure amid the USD pickup and weak Chinese PMIs alongside COVID woes
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI & a speech from ECB’s Lane.
  • UK clocks changed from BST to GMT on Sunday, October 30th. As such, the time gap between London and New York is four hours until US clocks change on Sunday, November 6th.

As of 10:25GMT/06:25ET

  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses began the week modestly firmer, though this proved shortlived and the complex has pivoted to being mixed overall in-fitting with the APAC handover amid PMIs, COVID, month-end and ahead of a busy week.
  • Specifically, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.10% while sectors are similarly mixed and feature some outperformance in defensives while Energy & Basic Resources lag amid COVID concerns and pressure in Glencore.
  • Stateside, futures are under more pressure, ES -0.5% as yields pickup a touch, NQ -0.7% lags slightly, ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC where a 75bp hike is expected and as corporate updates continue.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • USD is bolstered by the general risk tone, Yuan pressure post-PMIs and the latest piece from WSJ’s Timiraos; DXY to a 111.20+ peak, though it has eased slightly and holds just above the figure.
  • USD/JPY lifted beyond 148.00 amid USD strength with little impetus from its own data inputs, though upside has seemingly been capped ahead of 148.50.
  • EUR is pressured given the above action, though saw little reaction to hotter-than-expected EZ CPI for October, with market pricing steady at around a 90% chance of 50bp in December; single currency between 0.9915-0.9965.
  • After the JPYGBP has borne the brunt of the USD’s advances with EUR/GBP modestly bid as such with UK politics very much in focus as we count down to the BoE; currently, Cable holds around the session’s 1.1550 trough.
  • Petro-FX dented on softer benchmark pricing while the antipodeans are sensitivity to APAC pressure particularly in China though the Kiwi is deriving some support from domestic stress tests.
  • Brazil’s former President Lula has won the Brazilian presidential election run-off with 50.9% of votes vs Bolsonaro at 49.1% of votes, according to BBC.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 0.9750 (892M), 0.9895-00 (621M), 0.9945-50 (257M), 0.9995-00 (2.83BN)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Core benchmarks are pressured as we enter a week dominated by numerous Central Bank updates.
  • USTs are lower by 13 ticks with the 10yr yield surpassing Friday’s 4.05% best and nearing Thursday’s 4.08 peak before 4.10%; action that occurs ahead of the Wednesday FOMC and following the latest WSJ piece.
  • Bunds lag amid the above factors and following better-than-expected domestic retail data before another hot EZ CPI print, though reaction to the latter was limited after last week’s German release; currently, holding around 20 ticks above the 138.20 trough.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Commodities are under pressure as the USD picks up and following weak Chinese PMIs and ongoing COVID concerns.
  • Specifically, WTI and Brent are lower by just shy of 1% amid the above factors and as focus increasingly turns to next week’s US midterms and remarks from US officials, including President Biden.
  • US President Biden said that oil companies who complain he is picking on them ‘ain’t seen nothing yet’, according to Reuters.
  • QatarEnergy CEO said discussions are ongoing with several Asian buyers as value-added partners on the North Field expansion and that western international oil company partners have all been announced, while the CEO said several supply agreements are being discussed related to the expansion and announcement will be made in due course, according to Reuters.
  • US Energy Envoy Hochstein says the US has called on oil producers to increase output, speaking at ADIPEC; need more investment in the oil and gas sector right now and tomorrow.
  • Both precious and base metals are lower given the USD’s upside and softer China trade; spot gold remains below the USD 1650/oz handle while LME copper has slipped beneath USD 7.5k/T.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • UK PM Sunak is reportedly considering freezing foreign aid for two additional years to help balance UK government finances, according to The Telegraph.
  • UK government quashed suggestions that it is considering a windfall tax on banks as one of the measures to plug a hole in its finances at next month’s budget, according to The Sunday Times.
  • UK Home Secretary Braverman is under increasing pressure regarding security breaches after it emerged she took several hours to alert the UK’s top civil servant of an “error of judgement” regarding sensitive documents, according to FT.
  • UK housing developers warned that new rules and taxes will add GBP 4.5bln to annual costs, according to FT citing a report by the Home Builders Federation.
  • UK rail companies and unions are to hold talks to prevent more strikes, according to FT.
  • UK’s ONS has concluded the classification review of the Energy Price guarantee. Payments will be classified as subsidies on products, paid by gov’t to suppliers. Reduced energy unit prices will push inflation lower than if the scheme did not exist.
  • Irish PM Martin said political deadlock in Northern Ireland which led London to announce that it will call fresh elections in Northern Ireland, demonstrates that the governance system for the system is not fit for purpose and should be reformed, according to FT.
  • ECB’s Knot said the ECB is not done with normalising monetary policy and that the ECB will significantly increase rates again in December which could be by 75bps but noted the next interest step will probably be between 50bps-75bps. Knot added the following interest rate steps will probably be smaller from early 2023, while he added that the ECB is not even at half-time of its fight against inflation and that the prospect of a recession in the Eurozone has become increasingly likely, according to Reuters.
  • EU officials have proposed a far-reaching ban on the sale of goods made with forced labor, the plan is in early days and could take years to come into force, WSJ reports.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • EU HICP Flash YY (Oct) 10.7% vs. Exp. 10.2% (Prev. 9.9%); X F&E Flash YY (Oct) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.0% (Prev. 6.0%)
  • EU HICP-X Food, Energy, Alcohol & Tobacco Flash YY (Oct) 5.0% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.8%)
  • EU GDP Flash Prelim. QQ (Q3) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.8%); YY (Q3) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 4.1%)
  • UK Lloyds Business Barometer (October) 15 (Prev. 16).
  • UK Mortgage Approvals (Sep) 66.789k vs. Exp. 67.0k (Prev. 74.34k, Rev. 74.422k); Lending (Sep) 6.061B GB (Prev. 6.136B GB, Rev. 6.099B GB)
  • German Retail Sales YY Real (Sep) -0.9% vs. Exp. -4.9% (Prev. -4.3%, Rev. -1.5%); MM Real (Sep) 0.9% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -1.3%, Rev. -1.4%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • WSJ’s Timiraos noted the pandemic response left household and business finances in strong shape, while cash-rich consumers are proving to be less sensitive to tighter credit which complicates the job for the Fed and could mean higher rates for longer.
  • Goldman Sachs now sees Fed rates peaking at 5% in March which is 25bps higher than its prior forecasts, according to Bloomberg.
  • Elon Musk is said to have ordered job cuts across Twitter (TWTR) in which the layoffs would take place before November 1st when employees were scheduled to receive stock grants as part of their compensation, according to NYT. However, it was later reported that Elon Musk denied that layoffs will be taking place at Twitter before November 1st. Most recently, Washington Post reports that Twitter intends to lay off 25% of its workforce.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is pressured on the session but resides within a narrow range circa. USD 400 above the USD 20k handle and as such is well within recent parameters.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Ukrainian official sources says three missiles fired from Belarus were shot down on the Volyn province, in the west of the country, via Al Jazeera.
  • Russia announced it is suspending the UN-brokered grain agreement with Ukraine after accusing Ukraine of a massive drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea. Russia’s Defence Ministry stated that the drones used to attack Russia’s Black Sea Fleet were recovered and analysed, while it alleged that the drones used Canadian-made navigation modules and were launched by Ukraine near Odesa, according to Reuters.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia’s suspension of the grain export deal needs a strong international response from the UN and the G20, while he suggested that Russia doesn’t belong in the G20 as it is deliberately trying to provoke starvation. Furthermore, Zelensky separately commented that Ukrainian forces repelled a fierce offensive by Russian forces in the Donetsk region.
  • Ukrainian President’s Chief of Staff accused Russia of blackmail and faking terror attacks on its own facilities in response to Russian accusations that Ukraine was behind explosions in Crimea on Saturday, according to Reuters.
  • US President Biden said Russia’s decision to suspend participation in the grain deal is outrageous, according to Reuters.
  • NATO called on Russia to reconsider its decision and renew the grain deal urgently, while it said that Russian President Putin must stop weaponising food and end the illegal war on Ukraine, according to Reuters.
  • UN Secretary-General Guterres delayed his departure for the Arab League Summit in Algiers by a day to focus on the Black Sea grain deal and continues to engage in intense contacts aimed at ending Russia’s suspension of participation in the deal, according to a spokesperson cited by Reuters.
  • UN said Ukrainian, Turkish and UN delegations agreed on Sunday for a movement plan for 16 vessels on October 31st under the Black Sea grain initiative and agreed for inspections to be provided on Monday to 40 outbound vessels, while the UN added that the Russian delegation has been informed of both plans, according to Reuters.
  • Turkey’s Defence Minister is in talks with counterparts in Kyiv and Moscow to resume the grains deal and reminded the parties of the importance of continuing the grain deal for all humanity, while Turkey will continue to do its part for the restoration of peace in the region, according to the Defence Ministry cited by Reuters.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the Russian leadership, including President Putin, remains ready to negotiate on Ukraine, according to Anadolu Agency.
  • Russia will reportedly take into account the modernisation of US nuclear bombs in Europe in its military planning, according to RIA citing Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko.
  • Russian Defence Ministry alleged that representatives of a UK navy unit blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines although didn’t provide any evidence for its claims, while the UK Defence Ministry said that these were ‘false claims of an epic scale’ and that Russia is making false claims to detract from its disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, the French Foreign Ministry also stated that Russian accusations against Britain have no basis and are part of a strategy to turn attention away from Moscow’s sole responsibility for the war in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
  • US government was urged to open an investigation regarding allegations of a hacking of former PM Truss’s phone while she was Foreign Secretary, while The Mail on Sunday reported that agents suspected of working for Russia were responsible for the alleged hacking, citing unnamed sources.

OTHER

  • Iranian President Raisi said security is the Islamic Republic’s red line and it will not allow its enemies to undermine it, while it was separately reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander Salami warned protestors that Saturday would be the last day of riots and for protestors to not come to the streets, according to Reuters.
  • US has suggested the EU consider using export controls to target China, according to Bloomberg sources. One source suggested that the EU so far isn’t inclined to consider using the same approach with China as with Russia because the circumstances are different. Talks are ongoing ahead of a high-level meeting in December.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks traded mostly positive with momentum from last Friday’s rally on Wall St although some of the gains were capped by disappointing Chinese PMI data and lingering COVID-19 woes, while participants are also bracing for a week laden with risk events including the latest FOMC meeting and NFP jobs data.
  • ASX 200 traded positively with advances led by outperformance in tech but with further upside limited by weakness in the commodity-related sectors and as participants await tomorrow’s RBA policy meeting.
  • Nikkei 225 was boosted after Japan’s Cabinet formally approved a JPY 71.6tln economic stimulus package on Friday and with the index shrugging off mixed Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland pressured after Chinese PMI data showed surprise contractions in both factory and services activity, while Hong Kong was somewhat choppy amid a plethora of earnings releases including the big 4 banks and with casino names hit after Macau imposed three days of rapid COVID testing and locked down the MGM Cotai resort.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC Governor Yi reiterated that China will continue with its prudent monetary policy to keep the value of the yuan stable and said that China has the conditions to maintain conventional monetary policy for as long as possible, while Yi also reaffirmed to step up support for the real economy, according to Caixin and Reuters.
  • China’s State Council reiterated support for China’s digital economy and proposed an eight-pronged approach, according to SCMP.
  • China named Chen Yixin, who is a long-time confidant of President Xi, as the new state security minister in the latest leadership shake-up, according to SCMP.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi today and discussed the need to maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage the US-China relationship, while Blinken raised the subject of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the threat it poses to global security and economic stability, according to the State Department.
  • Shanghai Disney Resort suspended operations today due to COVID controls, according to Global Times.
  • Macau required residents to undergo three days of rapid Covid tests and locked down MGM China’s (2282 HK) Cotai casino resort although it was also reported that residents from mainland China will be able to travel to Macau from November 1st via the smart visa process, according to Reuters.
  • Macau is to commence mass COVID nucleic acid testing on November 1st, via Bloomberg.
  • Foxconn’s (2354 TT) Zhengzhou plant may see up to 30% of the factory’s November shipments of Apple (AAPL) iPhones impacted by the COVID-19 situation and it is working to increase iPhone production at its Shenzhen factory, according to a source
  • Japan is to establish a new joint command to manage operations of land, sea and air self-defence forces with the government aiming to establish the new self-defence forces joint command in 2024, according to Nikkei. It was also separately reported that Japan is mulling extending its high-speed missile range to defend the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, according to SCMP.
  • At least 153 people died and 150 others were injured during a stampede after large crowds surged into a narrow street in Seoul’s Itaewon nightlife district, according to a fire official cited by YTN. South Korean President Yoon declared a national day of mourning and said he would come up with measures to prevent a recurrence of similar incidents, according to Yonhap.
  • At least 132 people died and many are still missing after a suspension bridge collapsed in India’s Gujarat state, according to BBC.
  • RBNZ said bank solvency stress test shows resilience to a stagflation scenario and although capital buffers would be reduced in a stagflation scenario, they would still remain above the regulatory minimum, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese Composite PMI (Oct) 49.0 (Prev. 50.9)
  • Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.2 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.1); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 48.7 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.6)
  • Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Sep P) -1.6% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 3.4%); Retail Sales YY (Sep) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.1%)
  • Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Sep) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.44 PTS OR 0.77%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 176.04 OR 1.18%    /The Nikkei closed UP 482.26 PTS OR 1.78%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.17%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.3001 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.3218//    /Oil DOWN TO 856,61 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.51    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA//LOCKDOWNS

I-phone City, Zhengzhou, again experiencing problems as lockdowned Foxconn employees scuffle over food rations.  Another COVID outbreak

(zerohedge)

Locked-Down Foxconn Employees In “iPhone City” Scuffle Over Food Rations After Covid Outbreak

SATURDAY, OCT 29, 2022 – 07:35 AM

To say the working conditions at Apple’s largest iPhone plant probably aren’t incredible to begin with would likely be an understatement. But then when you lock down most of your 200,000 workers because of a Covid outbreak, those conditions likely get much worse.

This is what seemed to be the case this week, with Bloomberg reporting today that Covid cases at Foxconn Technology Group’s main factory in the central city of Zhengzhou have resulted in the facility going into a “closed loop” lockdown.

The lockdown means that employees can’t leave the campus and are tested regularly for Covid, the report says. But after the lockdown, “food has become a source of unrest”, according to the report. “Scuffles” have even broke out amongst employees over food. 

As a result of the lockdowns, cafeterias at the manufacturing site were shut down and workers on assembly lines were given “meal boxes”. Some employees who have remained locked down in their dormitories were given items like bread and instant noodles. 

The origins of Covid on the compound are unknown, but workers in numbers up to a dozen can share “cramped living quarters”, the report says. Bloomberg said that conflicting reports indicated that isolated workers may have been deprived of proper meals. 

Recall, just days ago we wrote about Foxconn implementing health restrictions after a flare up of Covid. 

Foxconn’s Zhengzhou campus has about 300,000 workers — all have been banned from eating in public and must take meals back to their dorms for consumption, the South China Morning Post reported days ago, citing a notice on the factory’s official WeChat account.  

“Foxconn’s Zhengzhou workers are only permitted to commute along certain routes within the campus, with many entrances closed in a de facto lockdown,” SCMP said. In another notice, workers living off campus were advised to move into on-site dormitories. 

At least for now, production of iPhones at the Zhengzhou campus remains normal despite the newly enacted Covid restrictions, according to a Foxconn spokesman. 

“Production in the Zhengzhou campus remains normal, without a notable impact [from the Covid-19] situation,” the spokesman said. 

China has yet to capitulate on its long-standing Zero-Covid policy (despite being a convenient scapegoat for Xi to deflect anger at the slowing economy during this month’s 20th party Congress). More than one million people were ordered to stay at home earlier this month in the metro area surrounding the iPhone campus.  

end 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

Eurozone inflation hits record 10.7%

By Martin Arnold
Financial Times, London
Monday, October 21, 2022

Eurozone inflation surged to a record high of 10.7% in October, keeping the pressure on the European Central Bank to continue raising interest rates despite a sharp slowdown in growth in the third quarter.

The increase in eurozone consumer prices accelerated from 9.9% in September, which was already the highest in the 23- year history of the euro.

are competitive.

The latest high, reported today by the European Commission’s statistics arm Eurostat, also outstripped the 10.2% expected by economists polled by Reuters. It was the 12th consecutive month that inflation has set a record high in the eurozone, taking it to more than five times the ECB’s 2% target.

Claus Vistesen, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the latest inflation figures were “a proper Halloween nightmare for the ECB.” . ..

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/d783e38e-7a58-4285-b68a- 55e357bb8c4

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UK//USA

This is not good:  Russia accuses the British navy of the Nordstream one and two terrorist atack

(zerohedge)

Russia Accuses British Navy Of Nord Stream “Terrorist Attack”

SATURDAY, OCT 29, 2022 – 09:55 AM

Russia’s defense ministry on Saturday issued a statement charging that the British Navy blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines last month, in what marks the first formal and direct accusation leveled against the UK over the major incident which put Europe’s energy supplies in doubt.

“According to available information, representatives of this unit of the British Navy took part in the planning, provision and implementation of a terrorist attack in the Baltic Sea on September 26 this year – blowing up the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines,” the ministry said, though without specifying any evidence. AFP/Getty Images

The Kremlin earlier in a more broad accusation pointed the finger at NATO countries, including Britain, saying that NATO forces had conducted military exercises around the exact location the undersea explosions occurred. The accusation follows a Russian Foreign Ministry claim that NATO conducted a military exercise during the summer, close to the location where the undersea explosions occurred.

“In July, there were NATO drills with the use of deep-sea equipment in the area of the island of Bornholm,” a foreign ministry briefing said days after the Sept.26 blasts. Spokeswoman Maria Zakharovathe said the region “was crammed with NATO infrastructure” at the time of the sabotage attack. 

In follow-up during his annexation of the four Ukrainian territories speech on Sept.30, President Putin mounted this attack on the West: 

Putin claimed that the “Anglo-Saxons” in the West have turned from sanctions on Russia to “terror attacks,” sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in what he described as an attempt to “destroy the European energy infrastructure.”

He added that “those who profit from it have done it,” without naming a specific country.

One thing that both Russia and the West agree on is that it was a deliberate act, and no mere accident. For example, soon following the incident European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen slammed it as sabotage while warning that “deliberate disruption of the European energy infrastructure is unacceptable and will lead to the strongest possible response.”

Russia has questioned why it would have to sabotage its own pipelines, instead of just turning off the gas if it saw fit. 

Sweden’s Armed Forces have throughout this past week been at the site investigating, and have confirmed that powerful detonations caused the extensive damage to the pipelines, which triggered gas leaks at for locations, with Sweden now calling for supplementary investigations – perhaps to eventually establish blame.

Within hours after Russia’s Saturday accusation, the UK Defense Ministry slammed the new allegation as “false claims of an epic scale.” A spokesperson for Britain’s military said, “To detract from their dis, astrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defense is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale.”

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/GLOBE

Russia exits the gain deal and that causes wheat prices to jump

(zerohedge)

Wheat Prices Jump After Russia Exits Grain Deal; UN Races To Save Agreement

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 08:40 AM

It’s been two days since Russia suspended its participation in the Ukraine grain export deal after a swarm of drones targeted at least one Russian warship from the Black Sea navy. Wheat futures soared Monday as traders eye tightening world supplies following Russia’s exit. 

Moscow immediately suspended its compliance with the grain deal, known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was formed and launched in July and ended a five-month Russian blockade of Ukraine’s ports. The United Nations and Turkey brokered the deal, allowing safe passage for cargo ships in and out of Ukraine’s ports to haul farm goods worldwide.

The deal was successful, as Bloomberg data shows Ukrainian exports via the Black Sea ramped after the agreement was signed in late summer. Source: Bloomberg 

But what the Russian Defense Ministry describes as a “massive” drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol derailed all hopes of a continuation of the deal as Moscow pulled out. 

Charlie Sernatinger, global head of grain futures at ED&F Man Capital Markets Inc. in Chicago, told Bloomberg on Sunday that grain prices are headed higher. 

Sernatinger is right. Wheat in Chicago jumped nearly 8% to $8.9325 a bushel Monday morning. Source: Bloomberg 

Andrey Sizov, a Russian grains analyst at SovEcon, told WSJ that many funds would have to buy into grain markets Monday to cover their positions. 

Corn, soybean oil, and soybean prices were also higher.

Meanwhile, a UN spokesman said Secretary-General António Guterres was attempting to reverse the Russian suspension. Also, the Turkish defense ministry was trying to rescue the deal, according to WSJ.

No grain shipments transited the Black Sea safety corridor for Sunday, though Turkey, Ukraine, and the UN agreed for 14 grain vessels to transit the Black Sea on Monday. 

What’s difficult to forecast is just how much higher grain prices are headed if the safe-passage deal Russia guaranteed is suspended, with no plans by Moscow (thus far) to extend it. This may deepen the global food crisis and push tens of millions of people closer to starvation. 

According to Joe Davis, director of commodity sales at Chicago-based brokerage Futures International LLC., he expects “the UN, with Ukraine and Turkey, will continue the grain deal despite Russia pulling out,” adding the wheat market will be volatile as traders closely watch Black Sea developments. 

“You are going to be missing some grain on the world market from Ukraine … and no one is going to rely on getting it out of there if it’s not on the water already,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Tobin Gorey. This means supplies will have to be sourced elsewhere. 

All this comes as countries from Europe to the Middle East are short of food, fuel, and fertilizer. 

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Much of Kiev is without water and power after new Russian airstrikes

(Zerohedge)

\

Much Of Ukrainian Capital Without Power & Water After New Russian Airstrikes

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 10:00 AM

Much of the Ukrainian capital of Kiev is without electricity or water, after the latest round of major Russian airstrikes on Monday. The Russian military announced ‘successful’ strikes on multiple of the country’s vital infrastructure facilities. 

“The Russian Armed Forces continued to launch strikes with high-precision long-range air and sea-based weapons against Ukrainian military and energy facilities,” the Defense Ministry said. “The goals of the strikes were successful. All assigned objects were hit.” Meanwhile, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed direct hits on 18 sites – most of which were connected to the nation’s energy supply. These ramped up attacks have created a growing sense of panic with temperatures plunging and winter approaching.

“Missiles and drones hit 10 regions, where 18 sites were damaged, most of them energy-related,” Shmyhal stated on Telegram. “Hundreds of settlements in seven regions of Ukraine were cut off.” Facilities in Cherkasy and Kirovohrad also came under attack. Ukraine’s military said it intercepted projectiles over the Lviv region, which spared this western part of the country from damage.

The Washington Post noted there are “power outages continuing in the Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions,” and others. The Post listed some of the below regions impacted by large-scale power outages and water supply disruptions

  • Kyiv region: Russian strikesdamaged buildings, and rescuers are searching for victims, the regional police said. Attacks left 80 percent of the capital without water and are likely to cause sustained power outages, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.
  • Kharkiv: Two strikes hit critical infrastructure facilities in the eastern city, causing problems with the water supply and affecting the public transit network, the mayor said.
  • Zaporizhzhia region: An infrastructure facility was struck by rockets, the local governor said, prompting warnings from officials in the southern region that energy supplies there could also be affected.
  • Cherkasy region: Some of the region lost power after air attacks on infrastructure facilities, the military administrator said.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba condemned the attacks as more war crimes: “Another batch of Russian missiles hits Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Instead of fighting on the battlefield, Russia fights civilians,” he tweeted.

Additionally Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko announced on Telegram that these fresh strikes left 80% of residents in the capital without water and some 350,000 homes with no electricity

“Just in case, we ask you to stock up on water from the nearest pumps and points of sale,” he advised. The mayor’s office vowed that water supply to the effected parts of the city would be restored in three to four hours, with emergency utility crews working urgently on it.

Rescue teams in the capital are reportedly searching for possible casualties under the rubble of buildings destroyed or damaged from the new salvo of Russian strikes; however, at this point casualty numbers are unclear. 

The US ambassador said she and her staff had to take shelter in this latest attack on the capital:

Already before Monday’s attacks, Ukrainian officials estimated that 40% of the nation’s electrical power systems had been severely damaged, and urged households to limit their usage, especially with non-essential large appliances. Ukrainians are further being warned to prepare for long-term power outages as a frigid winter is just around the corner

END

IRAN

Protests continue despite huge warnings from government

(zerohedge)

Iran Protests Continue As Demonstrators Defy Warnings From Government

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 12:27 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Widespread protests continued across Iran for a 45th consecutive day on Sunday, despite warnings from security officials that they would use tougher measures to crack down on demonstrators.

Protests over the weekend continued despite a warning from the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Maj Gen Hossein Salami, on Saturday that he would use unprecedented force in an effort to quell them.

“Today is the end of the riots. Do not go to the streets anymore!” Salami reportedly said.

 “We are telling our youth, the minority of you who have been deceived, stop the evil acts. This ominous sedition will bring no happy ending to you. Do not ruin your future!

Elsewhere, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was reported as saying by state media: “Security is the red line of the Islamic Republic, and we will not allow the enemy to implement in any way its plans to undermine this valuable national asset.”

Yet demonstrators, increasingly angered by the authorities’ attempts to suppress their protests against the Islamist government, ignored the warnings and took to the streets over the weekend.

Demonstrations across the country were initially sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died in Tehran on Sept. 16 while in the custody of Iran’s “morality police” after she was arrested over her “inappropriate attire. Police have said she suffered a heart attack while in custody.

Over time, the demonstrations have evolved into calls from Iranians for more freedom and demands to overthrow the Islamic regime and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, posing the most serious challenge to the country’s clerical leaders in years.

Exile Iranians of the National Council of Resistance of Iran gather in front of the embassy of Iran in Berlin, Germany, on Sept. 20, 2022, after the death of an Iranian woman held by the country’s morality police. (Michael Sohn/AP Photo)

Authorities ‘Kidnapping Students, Particularly Girls’

Video footage posted on social media showed violent confrontations between students and riot police at universities amid reports of raids on student dormitories that have seen students taken away in buses to state detention or banned from campus indefinitely.

In one video, students at the Islamic Azad University-North branch can be seen throwing rocks at IRGC forces and plainclothes agents. Another video posted to Twitter shows security forces using teargas and gunfire to stop students from demonstrating.

The Epoch Times has not been able to verify the video footage.

Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the NCRI for the period to transfer sovereignty to the people of Iran, wrote on Twitter on Sunday that IRGC forces have been using pellet guns and live ammunition to crack down on demonstrations at universities while simultaneously “kidnapping students, particularly girls.”

This, she said, shows the “regime’s desperation in face of Iran protests.”

According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), 283 protesters, including 44 children, have been killed so far since protests broke out across the country. Another 14,052 individuals have been arrested, according to HRANA’s latest update.

Iranian authorities have accused the United States, Israel, Britain, and Saudi Arabia of being behind the anti-government protests that are destabilizing the country, claims leaders of those nations have denied.

In September, the Biden administration announced sanctions on Iran’s morality police “for abuse and violence against Iranian women and the violation of the rights of peaceful Iranian protesters.”

END

ISRAEL/LEBANON

This could be a huge game changer:  Israel and Lebanon agree to a maritime border and that sets off natural gas exploration and development.

Israel already has discovered huge natural gas deposits in the Karish field. This may allow for peace in the area as cooperation is necessary

(Bradstock/OilPrice.com)

The Israel-Lebanon Agreement Could Be A Game Changer For Natural Gas Markets

SUNDAY, OCT 30, 2022 – 09:45 AM

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

  • Earlier this month, Lebanon and Israel came to an agreement over their maritime border that will open up natural gas fields to both countries and improve stability in the region.
  • With the world dealing with a natural gas shortage, Israel’s ability to produce natural gas from the Karish field provides some much-needed positive news for energy markets.
  • It will take Lebanon a significant amount of time to explore and develop the Qana field, but establishing the maritime border is an important first step for a country in an economic crisis.

Israel and Lebanon announced earlier this month that they had come to an agreement over their maritime border, a historic step in diplomacy that should help boost the natural gas output of both countries. As the world battles gas shortages going into the winter months, this deal provides a ray of hope for global energy markets in the future.  The most recent negotiations, led by the U.S., had been taking place over several months, with the impetus for a deal beginning in 2020. The final agreement is expected to “strengthen Israel’s security, inject billions into Israel’s economy, and ensure the stability of our northern border”, according to Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s president, Michel Aoun, stated that the deal “satisfies Lebanon, meets its demands, and preserves its rights to its natural resources.”

It appeared last minute as if the deal might not pass as Israel was prepared to reject Lebanon’s final draft of the agreement. However, due to mounting pressure to pass a deal before Aoun steps down at the end of October, and elections take place in Israel on 1st November, the two rival states came to an agreement. Lebanon’s powerful Shia group, Hezbollah, is also backing the agreement due to the country’s dire economic situation. However, the maritime border agreement should not be conflated with a peace agreement, which still appears a long way off. 

Israel will now be able to produce natural gas from the Karish maritime reservoir, which, along with the Tanin field, is believed to hold 2 to 3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 44 million barrels of liquids. This is a shift, as Lebanon previously held claim to part of the Karish field. European and North American powers are eager for Israeli production to begin in the field, to alleviate the pressures of global gas shortages. Meanwhile, Lebanon will exploit Qana, the neighboring field. Several TotalEnergies representatives have traveled to Beirut to discuss the immediate exploration and development of the gas field. 

Maha Yahya, director of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Centre is hopeful of what the deal represents, “The agreement means that both countries now have vested economic interests in maintaining calm along their common border regions.” Prime Minister Lapid is also optimistic that the deal will promote greater regional stability. Heiko Wimmen, project director for Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon at Crisis Group, explained the significant change the agreement has brought about for Israel, “If it had come to conflict, their entire [gas field] infrastructure would have been under threat.” He added, “This scenario is now off the table. So of course, that’s a significant win in security terms.

While the deal marks significant progress in the relations between the two countries, experts have been quick to criticize the deal due to certain undefined terms leaving space for ambiguity. While Lebanon will be given production rights in the Qana field, Israel will be entitled to a share of the royalties through an agreement with TotalEnergies, as the field crosses the maritime border into Israeli waters.

The agreement does not stipulate the share of profit distribution that Israel will receive from Qana, which could lead to further disagreements in the future. The deal states: “Israel shall work with the Bloc 9 Operator in good faith to ensure that this agreement is resolved in a timely fashion.” Essentially, Lebanon’s development of Qana requires Israel to come to an agreement with Total before it can proceed. This comes at a time when Lebanon is facing severe energy shortages that have led to long blackout periods as it tackles a major financial crisis.

While the development of a Lebanese gas field is expected to support financial recovery, it will take a significant amount of time to explore and develop Qana, with revenues unlikely to be seen until around 2030, and at nowhere near the amount needed to pull Lebanon out of its $100 billion debt. There is no clear picture of how much gas is in Qana but estimates value it at around $3 billion, which could bring Lebanon revenues of between $100 and $200 million a year. 

Mike Azar, an analyst and former lecturer at John Hopkins, believes the deal “was ultimately much more profitable for Israel. What Lebanon got was avoiding problems it can’t afford to deal with right now.” Based on Lebanon’s precarious political and economic situation at present, security is something that should not be overlooked, even if its oil and gas profits may come further down the road.

The new Israel-Lebanon maritime border deal has enabled the two powers to set clear boundaries and better understand the potential for their energy industries going forward. While Israel may be the winner in the short term, the agreement provides a better roadmap for Lebanese gas and the potential for greater foreign investment in the country.

end 

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES.

Vaccine//Covid issues:

GLOBAL ISSUES

US10984413B2 – Computer implemented method for processing a financial transaction and a system therefor – Google Patents

Robert Hryniak8:45 AM (11 minutes ago)
to

This is interesting because a token becomes the value of the transaction documented. Imagine a sale of locked in as a set value of say 1MM dollars worth of bananas from a grower to retailer with corresponding invoice with a delivery slip, which know becomes a value itself whether can be transferred on a forex basis into whatever currency you want and sent by email.
Such a move negates national so called currency tokens because transactions become tokens of trade value making central banks and their printing mute because value is defined by trade not the printing of money.
It is why blockchain contracts have and can become immutable transactions where you sell and value the contract and not the underlying asset. And unlike a derivative the value point is set and only the value of the underlying asset can change and not the physical asset itself.
This is far more innovative than people think including redundant Central banks because true value becomes defined by willing sellers and willing buyers who determine a transaction currency as a means of settlement for goods exchanged allowing contractual value exchange into any currency desired. This makes any desired currency reflective of value by use and not arbitrary control. Capital flow then becomes married to trade and not artificial control by government. Government actually is controlled by national output and trade.
If the Saudis sell oil in Yuan on November 1st by contract. Then the value of the contract by individual shipment determines a set point of value that can be swapped into any currency desired by assignment of contract on blockchain.
One reason we created a blockchain contract for Bitcoin back in 2018 was the recognition of contractual trading of contract value as opposed to actual coin transfer making the coin the stationary where ownership of value was transmitted electronically on a immutable trade eliminating the risk to coin ownership and capital risk to ownership as it was already bank compliant as capital does not move unless it is.

https://patents.google.com/patent/US10984413B2/en

PAUL ALEXANDER

Open in app or online

Remdesivir is killing people & CDC & NIH & FDA & Fauci et al. DO NOT care; examines Massachusetts & sudden kidney failure, known to doctors as acute renal failure (ARF) is a major health emergency now

a great piece on the risk of remdesivir and I highlight it here, please share; to see how great this travesty is require separating the Renal failure category N17-N19 into its ICD-10 codes, e.g. N17.9

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 29
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

You can literally see the surge in 2020 of deaths due to the aggressive use of remdesivir. You can also see less but still the force on mortality of using liver and kidney toxic remdesivir.

Coquin de Chien does a tremendous job relaying the surge in deaths (all-cause deaths) in Massachusetts 2020, 2021, and 2022.

END

Open in app or onlineALL gene based vaccines, all, kill the vaccinated! Bhakdi: those who died after vaccine killed by the COVID vaccine; DR SUCHARIT BHAKDI: ORGANS OF DEAD VACCINATED PROVES AUTO IMMUNE ATTACK- 22/12/2021
Dr. Arne Burkhardt pathologist shows: In 90% of organs of those who died after vaccine, finds clear evidence of auto-immune self attack by killer lymphocytes in the tissues e.g. heart, lung etc.
DR. PAUL ALEXANDER
OCT 29 ▷  LISTENSAVE
 These COVID vaccines are killing (killed) the young and the old and killing our children. 90% Of the deceased, aged 28 to 90, women and men, had the same pathological findings, in all. The common denominator was the vaccine spike protein in the tissues. Some even vaccinated once yet died.
SOURCE:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/fHIT55iM4Zv9/endDr. Naomi Wolf: Fertility & birth rate decline due to COVID mRNA vaccines; Dr. Naomi Wolf points to “ALARMING Drop in Birth Rates and Fertility Among mRNA Vaccinated Women” (Igor Chudov)
Behind the FDA Curtain: War Room/DailyClout Pfizer Reports

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 31Open in app or online“Soaring Deaths of Young Americans”: In the first two and a half years of COVID, 150 thousand more American under 45s have died than expected; is it the COVID gene injection? We say ‘YES’ it is

However, almost half of those deaths have occurred in the last twelve months. Smalley takes a shocking look and the findings are not good; do you have another explanation besides the COVID vaccine?
DR. PAUL ALEXANDER
OCT 31 ▷  LISTENSAVE 

Whether you think it is the collateral harms of earlier interventions or the mass mRNA experiment, it is an indisputable fact that young Americans are dying at substantially higher rates in more recent times than earlier in the COVID epidemic.If you do dispute this, show me on the chart below the point at which the life-saving intervention was introduced in 2020-22.See Smalley’s good work here:Dead Man Talking

Soaring Deaths of Young Americans

.Whether you think it is the collateral harms of earlier interventions or the mass mRNA experiment, it is an indisputable fact that young Americans are dying at substantially higher rates in more recent times than earlier in the COVID epidemic. If you do dispute this, show me on the chart below the point at which the life-saving intervention was introduced in 2020-22…
Read more
8 days ago · 152 likes · 77 comments · Joel Smalley

Open in app or onlineDag Berild et al.: “Analysis of Thromboembolic and Thrombocytopenic Events After the AZD1222, BNT162b2, and MRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccines in 3 Nordic Countries” see Table 3, stunning cardiac harms

an increased rate of coronary artery disease following Moderna vaccine; AZD1222 was associated with increased rates of cerebral venous thrombosis and thrombocytopenia in 3 Nordic countries.
DR. PAUL ALEXANDER

OCT 30 ▷  LISTENSAVE 
These results add to the already accumulated strong evidence of serious cardiovascular risk (heart disease, coagulation disorders, cerebrovascular illness etc.) following use of the COVID vaccines and especially the mRNA COVID vaccines.This self-controlled case series used individual-level data from national registries in Norway, Finland, and Denmark. Participants included individuals with hospital contacts because of coronary artery disease, coagulation disorders, or cerebrovascular disease between January 1, 2020, and May 16, 2021.‘265 339 hospital contacts, of whom 112 984 [43%] were for female patients, 246 092 [93%] were for patients born in 1971 or earlier, 116 931 [44%] were for coronary artery disease, 55 445 [21%] were for coagulation disorders, and 92 963 [35%] were for cerebrovascular disease.’Key results:‘In the 28-day period following vaccination, there was an increased rate of coronary artery disease following Moderna vaccination (RR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.02-1.25]), but not following AZD1222 vaccination (RR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.82-1.03]) or Pfizer vaccination (RR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92-0.99]).There was an observed increased rate of coagulation disorders following all 3 vaccines (AZD1222: RR, 2.01 [95% CI, 1.75-2.31]; BNT162b2: RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.07-1.19]; and mRNA-1273: RR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.07-1.47]).There was also an observed increased rate of cerebrovascular disease following all 3 vaccines (AZD1222: RR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.16-1.52]; BNT162b2: RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.05-1.13]; and mRNA-1273: RR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.09-1.35]).For individual diseases within the main outcomes, 2 notably high rates were observed: 12.04 (95% CI, 5.37-26.99) for cerebral venous thrombosis and 4.29 (95% CI, 2.96-6.20) for thrombocytopenia, corresponding to 1.6 (95% CI, 0.6-2.6) and 4.9 (95% CI, 2.9-6.9) excess events per 100 000 doses, respectively, following AZD1222 vaccination.’Table
3:SOURCE
:https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2793348
Open in app or onlineIsrael data: What else do you need to see beyond graph B below? “Increased emergency cardiovascular events among under-40 population in Israel during vaccine rollout and third COVID-19 wave”You see that emergency calls for cardiac arrest etc. in persons 16 to 39 in Israel tracked tightly with 1st and 2nd vaccine dose as well as the single doses in recovered persons.DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 28 ▷  LISTENSAVE You see that emergency calls for cardiac arrest etc. in persons 16 to 39 in Israel tracked tightly with 1st and 2nd vaccine dose as well as the single doses in recovered persons (graph B below).SOURCE:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-10928-z#Fig1
Open in app or online“Deaths in children and young people in England after SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first pandemic year”, published in NATURE in 2021, showing of 12,023,568 children & young persons in England…

3,105 died, including 61 who were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of these deaths, 25 were due to SARS-CoV-2 infection (mortality rate, two per million or 0.000002; again, 0.000002; did CDC tell you this?DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 28
Open in app or online

IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) for COVID: how did experts get is so wrong (10-fold) & Why Stanford’s Ioannidis provides most robust data & Carl Heneghan, Jason Oke & Tom Jefferson sets IFR straight!

The Infection Fatality Ratio: the Errors in the Early Estimates. Recent data shows that early estimates of fatality in the covid pandemic over-predicted deaths by as much as tenfold in younger people

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 29
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

See the book cover of my book being released November 15th, 2022.

Order via this LINK

This is the BLUE-PRINT for a Republican congress and senate to hold the proper investigations to get to the bottom of the manufacture (Gain-of-Function) and release of COVID-19, as well as investigations of all of the COVID lockdown polices, mandates, and the decisions and actions taken in developing and bringing the COVID gene injection (vaccine). This is imperative for any administration to get accountability for all of the policies and decisions made with regards to COVID-19:

You can pre-order (order) here by clicking on this link:

Order via this LINK

Start here:

10-fold mistake? Is this ineptness or deliberate? I think Heneghan is being too kind.

A recent publication by Stanford researchers based on seroprevalence studies in the covid pre-vaccination era provides a more robust estimate of the IFR.

Across 32 studies, the median IFR of COVID-19 was estimated to be 0.035% for people aged 0-59 years and 0.095% for those aged 0-69.

We compared the two IFR estimates, which shows the Imperial College estimates are much higher than Stanfords across the age groups.’  

Trust the Evidence

The Infection Fatality Ratio: the Errors in the Early Estimates

The Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) estimates the percentage deaths in all those with an infection: the detected (cases) and those with undetected disease (asymptomatic and the not-tested group). The IFR is used to model the estimated number of deaths in the population at large. If it’s a large number approaching one percent, then the modelled outputs can…

Read more

2 days ago · 47 likes · 4 comments · Carl Heneghan, Jason Oke, and Tom Jefferson

VACCINE IMPACT/

Vaccine Impact

New Bivalent COVID-19 Booster Shots Continue to Kill and Injure as U.S. Government Targets Blacks and HispanicsOctober 29, 2022 4:43 pmThe U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) updated their database yesterday and added another 1,020 injuries and 8 deaths following the new Bivalent COVID-19 booster shots, bringing the totals now for the new booster shots to 5,435 injuries, 45 deaths, 53 permanent injuries, 535 ER visits, and 192 hospitalizations. The CDC and the U.S. Government are trying to convince the public that without these new booster shots, their chances of dying from COVID are much higher, but the CDC’s own statistics show that “All Deaths Involving COVID-19” have been steadily declining since the end of July, even though the new Bivalent booster shots were not approved until the end of August. This means they are lying to the public, and people are being injured and dying after the new booster shots needlessly. And earlier this week the U.S. Government spent U.S. taxpayer money to develop new TV and radio ads targeting Blacks and Hispanics to go get the deadly booster shots. Please warn people that these ads are “misinformation” based on the U.S. Government’s own statistics, and are only designed to sell more of Moderna and Pfizer’s vaccines, which are becoming less and less popular.Read More…

end

Medical System Struggles with How to Treat Heart Disease Caused by COVID Vaccines

October 30, 2022 5:57 pm

One of the most prestigious medical journals dealing with heart disease, the Journal of the American Heart Association (JAHA), has published two new articles this month dealing with how to detect and treat COVID-19 vaccine induced heart disease (myocarditis, pericarditis, and myopericarditis). They are: “Vaccine‐Triggered Acute Autoimmune Myocarditis: Defining, Detecting, and Managing an Apparently Novel Condition” and “Myocarditis After COVID‐19 Vaccination in Pediatrics: A Proposed Pathway for Triage and Treatment.” Medical journals are generally not written for the public, but for doctors and other medical professionals, so you will not hear about this in the corporate news which is heavily sponsored by the drug companies who produce the COVID vaccines, and would not want the general public to have this information. The JAHA published studies admit to a difficult situation in treating what they refer to as a “novel” cardiac disease that is caused by COVID-19 vaccines without fueling “vaccine hesitancy” which would reduce the number of people getting COVID-19 vaccines, which of course they are obligated to believe are necessary to fight the COVID-19 “virus” disease. To admit otherwise, would be to admit these vaccines are a total scam and unnecessarily killing and maiming people, a criminal offense. So the fact that JAHA even has to address this issue and give guidance to medical providers in how to detect and treat these new “novel”  vaccine-induced cardiac diseases, proves that these vaccines cause harm, especially among young males. The fact that JAHA is even addressing this issue, is truly astounding, because they are basically admitting that this is a very real and very serious problem, and that they have been totally unprepared on how to detect and treat these vaccine-induced cases of heart disease.

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

US NatGas Spikes As Temperatures Are About To Dive Nationwide

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 10:21 AM

US natural gas prices catapulted into the stratosphere Monday morning after new two-week weather forecasts showed average temperatures across the country would begin to dive next week, driving up heating demand. 

NatGas for December delivery soared as much as 13% to $6.40 per million British thermal units in New York.

Prices have come off the highs at the start of the US cash session, still up 10%, around $6.27. 

Bloomberg cited data from private forecaster Maxar Technologies that shows cold weather in the West will traverse the country into the Midwest next week. 

The two-week outlook for the US Lower 48 shows average temperatures will begin to sink Sunday and fall well below a 30-year mean through the second half of the month. By Nov. 15, average temperatures across the US could average in the mid-30s 

US Lower 48 heating degree days will rise well above a 30-year trend line, indicating heating demand via households and businesses will soar as colder temps swoop across the nation. 

“The gas rally underscores how sensitive traders are to potential cold blasts as below-normal stockpiles and booming exports stoke concern about whether supplies will be enough to meet demand in a deep freeze,” Bloomberg said. 

Eli Rubin, an analyst at EBW AnalyticsGroup, said the prospect of colder weather means traders are buying back into NatGas markets. Prices have slumped by more than 35% since August, with hedge funds trimming bullish bets to the lowest in two years — all because of warmer weather. NatGas appears to have found a near-term bottom as ‘Old Man Winter’ is set to make an entrance. 

As a reminder, soaring energy prices mean US households are about to pay 47% more for electricity than a year ago — making it very costly to heat homes.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

Brazil

Bolsonaro Still Silent Morning After Election Defeat As World Leaders Congratulate Lula

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 10:45 AM

Into Monday mid-morning Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro still hasn’t conceded defeat to his leftist rival Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The results were announced fairly quickly after polls closed Monday evening. 

After 100% of votes were reported counted, Lula barely passed the the required 50% mark, coming it at 50.9% to Bolsonaro’s 49.10%. At 60.3 million votes to the incumbent’s 58.2 million, this was a difference of just over 2 million votes.

“This country needs peace and unity,” Lula said in a victory speech in Sao Paulo. He said the challenge set before the country is “immense” while vowing “democracy is back” – in reference to Bolsonaro’s detractors often dubbing him a ‘far right dictator’.

As The Guardian observes, pressure is growing for Bolsonaro to officially concede, given that already, “A stream of world leaders have stepped forward to recognize Lula’s stunning political comeback, including the US president, Joe Biden, the UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, and China’s Communist party chief, Xi Jinping.”

The upset marks the first time in Brazilian history that a serving president has been voted out of office. Bolsonaro will serve until Lula takes over on January 1, 2023.

France24 notes that there’s currently a climate of trepidation as it’s unclear whether Bolsonaro will concede, and after there’s been instances of political violence among rival supporters during the campaign

Lula supporters erupted into joy and celebration across the country, but not without trepidation. Since the first round of the elections on October 2, when Bolsonaro largely beat the polls and came out with an unexpectedly strong showing of 43 percent against Lula’s 48 percent, many feared that the incumbent could potentially claim a second straight mandate.

All eyes are also on Bolsonaro’s official social media accounts, which have been quiet for the past 24 hours. President Bolsonaro’s last tweet came shortly before midnight on the eve of the election. He quoted from the Bible, the book of Ephesians, which says “Put on the whole armor of God, that you may be able to stand against the wiles of the devil…”

Bolsonaro has recently expressed concern over the potential for the country’s voting machines to be manipulated or tampered with, something that his political opponents have dismissed as “Trump-style” election denial rhetoric. 

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.99281 DOWN    0.0031 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 148.65   UP  1.327 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//

GBP/USA 1.1529 DOWN   0.0071

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 22.47 PTS OR 0.77% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED  DOWN 176.04 POINTS OR 1.18% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.17%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 176.04 PTS OR 1.18%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 22.44 PTS OR 0.77%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.17% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 382.26 PTS OR 1.78%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1640.75

silver:$19.16

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 111.07 UP 0.146 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.14% UP 6  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.239% DOWN  0 AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.23%// UP 9 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.31  UP 9   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.1445%  UP 5 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.98860  DOWN  .0073   or 73 basis points//

USA/Japan: 148.62 UP 1.27 OR YEN DOWN 127 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.14906 DOWN .01099 OR  110 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0057 OR 57 BASIS pts  to 1.3643

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 7.3029

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.3310

TURKISH LIRA:  18.62  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.239

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from FRIDAY at  4.037% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   4.148 UP 2  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 111.41 UP 80 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 59.06 PTS OR  0.84%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 26.29 POINTS OR 0.20%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 0.58 PTS OR 0.01% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 36.80 OR  0.46%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 149.73 PTS OR  0.66%

WTI Oil price 86.47 12: EST

Brent Oil:  92.58   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  61.48 UP 0  AND 4/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1445

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.98832 DOWN .0076    OR  76  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1468 DOWN  .0132 or  132 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.5465% 

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148,70 UP 1.363//YEN DOWN 136 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3623 UP 0.0032  (CDN dollar, DOWN 32 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 86,07

Brent OIL:  92.52

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.062%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 4.180%

USA dollar index:111.47 UP .10 CENTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.62

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  61.48  UP 0 AND  4/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 128.83 PTS OR 0.85 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 140.64 PTS OR 1.22%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.97 UP 0.22 PTS (0.85)%

GLD: $151.91 DOWN 1.35 OR .82%

SLV/ $17.62  DOWN $0.24 OR 0.68%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds Battered, Bitcoin Bid, But The Dow Soars To Best October Ever

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Treasury yields are up for 3 straight months, Gold is down in price for 7 straight months, and despite the biggest drop in The Fed’s balance sheet since July 2020, stocks soared…

Ugly sentiment signals from Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed this morning did not provide the normal ‘bad news is good news’ juice and short-term rates markets also shifted hawkishly ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting…

Source: Bloomberg

But on the month, the market appears to be pricing in a more aggressive hawkish fed followed by a more aggressive dovish Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

With 75bps locked in for Wednesday and the odds of 75bps in December also rising again…

Source: Bloomberg

But on the month, the big story is in stocks with The Dow smashing higher as Nasdaq underperformed…

It was the best monthly return for the Dow since Jan 1976 (+14.41%), the 2nd best month for The Dow since 1936, but the Best October for The Dow ever…

And we note that on the day, when The Treasury announced bigger than expected borrowing, bonds and stocks took a spill in the last hour today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries tanked as stocks soared in October with the long-end significantly underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y yield wavered around 4.00% all month…

Source: Bloomberg

The 3m10Y yield spread finally inverted this month (though steepened back out today)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the month very modestly lower (basically unchanged), despite a few wild swings during October…

Source: Bloomberg

The Brazilian Real interestingly rallied today after far-left Lula won the presidential election (after opening significantly weaker, as expected). Presumably some uncertainty reduced and the fact that a right-leaning parliament will basically gridlock any of his most ‘socialist’ extreme poliicies…

Source: Bloomberg

We do note also that this rip higher also filled the gap from the 24th, so don’t hold your breath.

Most of the crypto majors rallied in October with Ethereum notably outperforming Bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg

The last week has seen ETH surge relative to BTC…

Source: Bloomberg

In commodity-land, crude prices managed strong gains but copper and precious metals were basically unch…

Oil prices fell on the day amid some notable volatility and Biden’s threats…

But NatGas was the big mover, ripping over 11% higher on the day amid cold weather fears…

Finally, bear in mind that we have seen this pattern of stocks ramping on ‘pivot/pause’ hope while STIRs continues to shift hawkishly before…

Source: Bloomberg

And it did not end well the last two times.

I) / LATE MORNING//  TRADING//

AFTERNOON TRADING//AFTER HOURS

ii) USA DATA/

Chicago PMI weakens further in October

Oct. 31, 2022 at 9:54 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Barometer of business dipped to 45.2 in October, the second straight month of contraction

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped to 45.2 in October from 45.7 in the prior month, according to data released Monday.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast a 47 reading.

Readings below 50 indicate contraction territory.

The index is produced by the ISM-Chicago with MNI. It is released to subscribers three minutes before its release to the public at 9:45 am Eastern.

The Chicago PMI is the last of the regional manufacturing indices before the national factory data for October is released on Tuesday.

Economist polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the closely-watched Institute for Supply Management’s factory index to barely remain above the 50 breakeven level in October

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.

Yields Surge To Session High After Treasury Unexpectedly Projects It Will Issue An Additional $150BN In Q4 Debt

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 03:36 PM

At a time when QT is rapidly shrinking the amount of total reserves, if barely denting the outstanding reverse repos…

… as the Fed’s balance sheet just shrank by $72BN in the past month, its biggest decline since the early days of the covid crisis

… many have asked just where will the demand come from to purchase all those trillions in debt that have to be sold over the next two years during which time the Fed’s balance sheet will (supposedly) continue to shrink, and just when will the Treasury commit to TSY buybacks since the Fed won’t do more QE for at least a few more months (until the BLS admits just how ugly US payrolls truly are, a few weeks after the midterms) as the Treasury market continues to fracture and break with every week that nothing happens.

Well, moments ago the Treasury just added fuel to that particularly fiery question when in its latest Marketable Borrowing Estimate it uneviled that in the current October – December 2022 quarter, the US Treasury now expects to borrow $550 billion in marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $700 billion. The borrowing estimate is $150 billion higher than announced in August 2022, and is due primarily due to changes to projections of fiscal activity, greater than projected discount on marketable securities, and lower non-marketable financing.  

It doesn’t end there of course, and in its first estimate for borrowing during the January – March 2023 quarter, the Treasury expects to borrow $578 billion in new debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $500 billion. Said otherwise, another $1.1 trillion in debt issuance in the next six months.

Source: US Treasury

As for the historical, July – September 2022 quarter, the Treasury borrowed a relatively modest $457 billion in marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $636 billion. In August 2022, Treasury estimated borrowing of $444 billion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $650 billion. The $13 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing resulted primarily from lower net fiscal flows, somewhat offset by the lower end-of-quarter cash balance.

As usual, the Treasury will announce additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding this Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, November 2, 2022, just hours before the FOMC announcement.

The news that the Treasury will need to issue an additional $150BN disappointed the market, and sent yields to session highs, while stocks and other risk assets briefly tumbled.

END

Musk To Charge Twitter Blue Checks $20 Per Month; Will Give 90 Day Grace Period: Report

MONDAY, OCT 31, 2022 – 12:56 PM

Elon Musk is about to overturn the entire dynamic on Twitter if a Sunday report from The Verge proves to be true.

According to internal correspondence and people familiar with the matter, Musk is about to start charging $20 per month for ‘blue check’ verification badges.

Under the plan, verified users would have 90 days to subscribe to the service or lose their blue checkmark – and their ‘respected thought leader’ status, in many cases.

On Sunday, employees working on the project were told they would have until November 7th to launch the feature or face getting fired, according to the report.

Musk has been clear in the months leading up to his acquisition that he wanted to revamp how Twitter verifies accounts and handles bots. On Sunday, he tweeted: “The whole verification process is being revamped right now.”

Platformer’s Casey Newton first reported that Twitter was considering charging for verification. -The Verge

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1586848033550934016&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Ftechnology%2Fmusk-charge-twitter-blue-checks-20-month-will-give-90-days-grace-period-report&sessionId=95534f64abcf377b7734409922de5265ba740102&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1c23387b1f70c%3A1664388199485&width=550px

Musk has wasted no time making changes at Twitter despite being “Chief Twit” for less than a week – firing ex-CEO Parag Agrawal and other top execs (including wrongthink czar Vijaya Gadde) – who may not receive their golden parachutes (more on that later). Musk also had engineers change Twitter’s homepage for logged-out users.

And while advertisers have been threatening to bail on Twitter left and right over Musk’s commitment to free speech, it would be interesting to know just how many people are willing to pay $240 per year into the company’s ‘blue check’ program.

END

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//INFLATION WATCH

end

SWAMP STORIES

end

KING REPORT

The King Report October 31, 2022 Issue 6976Independent View of the News
 BOJ maintains easy monetary policy, ups inflation forecast
Japan’s central bank also cuts growth projection to 2.0% for fiscal 2022
   The BOJ also released inflation projections, with the mean projection rising to 2.9% from 2.3% for fiscal 2022, and 1.6% from 1.4% for fiscal 2023, in a sign that price increases are becoming more widespread than policy board members had anticipated. Fiscal years end in March the following year.…
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/BOJ-maintains-easy-monetary-policy-ups-inflation-forecast
 
Kishida, BOJ not on same page in dealing with surging prices https://t.co/AN9uIk3g2R
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda agree on the need for wage increases to match a recent surge in consumer prices but seem to be at odds in other economic policy areas… But in other important respects Kuroda and Kishida were announcing measures in direct conflict with each other. The ultra-loose monetary policy of the BOJ is considered the primary factor behind the plunging of the yen against the dollar as other central banks raise their interest rates. That has contributed to raising the cost of imported food products.
    Kishida was forced to announce the economic package to help counter the negative effects of the weak yen on surging consumer prices.  While acknowledging the difficulty of suddenly hiking interest rates in Japan, government officials have also increasingly been critical of what Kuroda has been saying…
 
Key inflation gauge eyed by Fed stays painfully high as prices keep rising https://t.co/f027HWQ0U9
 
Perceived WSJ Fed whisper @NickTimiraos: While… the decision for next week of 75 basis points seems unlikely to change, another uncomfortably high ECI reading might argue for a somewhat higher terminal rate and could muddy the debate over slowing the pace in Dec.
    The ECI component of greatest relevance to the Fed, which shows wages and salaries for private sector workers excluding incentive paid occupations, rose 1.2% in Q3 and was up 5.6% over the previous year (it rose 1.3% in Q2 was also up 5.6% on a YoY basis)
 
@stlouisfed: The Employment Cost Index… rose 1.2% in Q3, seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 1.3%, while benefit costs were up 1.0% http://ow.ly/KVvk50Loh4B
 
The odds of a 75bps rate hike in December rose to 44.2% from 34.1%.  This is not pivot-worthy odds.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
 
@NickTimiraos: Sen. John Hickenlooper (D., Colo.) in a letter to Jay Powell:  “I write to urge the Federal Reserve to pause and seriously consider the negative consequences of again raising interest rates. https://hickenlooper.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/FED_Hickenlooper_Letter_10.27.22.pdf
 
Political Pressure on Fed Is ‘Fool’s Game,’ Summers Says
    Two Democratic senators have written Powell on Fed policy
    Summers says pressure on Fed would be counterproductive
“Political pressure is a fool’s game,”… On one hand, the Fed may become even more determined to tighten, in an effort to demonstrate its independence. On the other, public pressure could undermine investor confidence in the Fed’s campaign…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-28/summers-blasts-fed-critics-after-senators-pushed-powell-on-hikes
 
The BEA fooled with GDP Deflator to produce a politically beneficial Q3 GDP Report ahead of the Midterm Elections.  The BEA adjusted Q3 GDP by a 4.1% inflation rate when CPI, which is grossly understated anyway, ran around 8% in Q3.
 
@NickTimiraos: Real final sales to domestic purchasers, which excludes government spending and net exports and provides a good gauge of underlying demand, (barely) grew during Q3.  It advanced at an annual rate of +0.1%, down from +0.5% in Q2 and +2.1% in Q1 https://wsj.com/articles/us-gdp-economic-growth-third-quarter-2022-11666830253
 
@zerohedge: Personal savings tumbles to 3.1% from 3.4%, and just shy of record low 3.0%
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1585973764323409921
 
Bonds sank on Friday because the Fed’s professed favorite inflation indicator, the PCE Deflator registered 0.3% m/m and 6.2% y/y for September – and the Employment Cost Index for Q3 is 1.2%.
 
Despite the bond decline, Amazon’s horrid Q4 guidance, and the increased odds of a 75bps rate hike in December, people poured into stocks on Friday.  October performance gaming (some large funds have Oct 31 yearends, Fidelity?) and the belief that the Fed will signal a pivot this week were impetuses. 
https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/mutual-funds/Cap-Gains-Q-A.pdf
 
ESZs were deeply negative due to Amazon but commenced a rally at 8:49 ET that inexorably persisted until 15:00 ET.  ESZs and stocks then flatlined until a modest spasm higher appeared at 15:55 ET.
 
Evidence that October performance gaming appeared: Apple, an over-owned and a key holding for beaucoup large entities, soared 7.56% on Friday after disappointing Q4 guidance on Thursday night!
 
Some pundits on Friday proclaimed that Powell would announce the pivot on Wednesday.  The sources might be ‘talking their books’ – financially and politically.  Dems’ overt pressure should harden Powell.
 
@CGasparino: Economists at @BlackRock are telling financial advisers that they expect “pivot language” at the next @federalreserve meeting when they expect Powell to announce a 75 BP FF hike followed by two smaller ones and a pause to get us to around 4.75%.
 
Sorry, Charlie, that exact scenario has been baked into the market!  For months, various Fed officials have proclaimed that they see fed funds above 4.5% in early 2023 and then a pause to gauge the economy.  See what is going on?  The usual suspects are trying to change the definition of a Fed Pivot from a sudden easing to a Fed pause.  Hucksters are averring that the Fed will reiterate exactly what officials have been asserting for months in the FOMC Communique, but it will signify a pivot!
Why not proffer nonsense?  The usual suspects will swallow most anything that tickles their bullish bone!
 
We must reiterate that with stocks flying, the Fed is less likely to pause, let alone pivot – and if the Fed announced or suggested or obliquely indicated a pivot 5 days before the Midterms Elections with inflation still high, the Fed would look abjectly partisan to Democrats.
 
The Fed won’t pivot from its rate hikes until the end of 2023, as inflation is persistent and the economy isn’t slowing as expected, JPMorgan strategist says https://t.co/MMrRE9msmF
 
Pending home sales fell 10.2% in September, much worse than expected (-4%)
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/28/pending-home-sales-fell-10percent-in-september-from-august.html
 
Meta spent $45 billion on stock buybacks last year at $330 a share. The stock is worth $100 today after a post-earnings crash.  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-spent-45-billion-stock-133731888.html
 
Tesla Engineers Take Control of Twitter’s Algorithms Away from Twitter’s Engineers
https://www.dailywire.com/news/tesla-engineers-take-control-of-twitters-algorithms-away-from-twitters-engineers-the-bird-is-freed
 
@elonmusk (1st tweet as Twitter owner): the bird is freed; (2nd tweet) let the good times roll
Comedy is now legal on Twitter
 
Ousted Twitter top lawyer made calls to ban Trump, censor Hunter Biden laptop story
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/ousted-twitter-top-lawyer-made-calls-to-ban-trump-censor-hunter-biden-laptop-story
 
GM temporarily suspends advertising on Twitter following Elon Musk takeover https://t.co/xY1E9FuJ44
 
@JonathanTurley: It is interesting that General Motors was not at all “concerned” about the direction of Twitter when it was operating one of the most extensive censorship systems in history and widely accused of biashttps://t.co/pr3oZF9mvq  So much for its new slogan “Everybody In.”
 
Positive aspects of previous session
October performance gaming and Fed pivot hope, hype, and delusion foment a robust equity rally
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Fangs got hammered again
Bonds, infinitely smarter than equities, declined sharply on lingering US inflation
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Commodities, including gasoline, sank on soft US economic data
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: UpLast Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3871.58
Previous session High/Low3905.42; 3808.26
 
New Swiss Study: Covid Shots Increase Risk of Myocarditis by 800 TIMES in Young Adults
https://t.co/9VK4cVMa95
 
@RNCResearch: Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: “Inflation is not going up due to government policies. Inflation is going up due to Wall Street decisions.”  https://t.co/1qmaDdoyXE
 
Top Dems Urge Biden to Nationalize Oil & Gas Industry (ala Venezuela and others)
Calls for Biden to socialize industry have moved quickly from fringe to mainstream
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/top-dems-urge-biden-to-nationalize
 
Russia Withdraws from Grain Deal After Drone Attack on Black Sea Fleet – NYT
Russian officials said earlier Saturday that 16 drones had attacked Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, damaging at least one vessel, a minesweeper, before all of the attacking aircraft were repelled… The drone attack on Saturday struck Sevastopol, a port on the Crimean Peninsula, which has been under Kremlin control since Moscow illegally annexed it in 2014.  The area holds immense symbolic importance for Mr. Putin…
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-grain-deal.html
 
BBG: Traders are bracing for a fresh spike in grain prices after Russia exited a deal allowing Ukraine crops to move from the Black Sea to the countries most in need of them… https://t.co/YH8009OveN
 
@Convertbond: “DJIA is +14.4% month to date, which would rank October as the 10th best month on record for the Dow since 1915, one trading day left, the Dow just needs to close higher by 2 basis points on Monday to surpass January 1976 as the best month since the 1930s. via @bespokeinvest
 
@amlivemon: Dems Senate majority slipping…. no matter how much Yellen and Brainard pump this market, it’s not going to save their majority.  https://twitter.com/amlivemon/status/1586069123867762688
 
With 8 days remaining in the election cycle, the trends are baked in.  The GOP is soaring in the battleground Senate races, blue state offices are in play.  It’s unlikely that a normal October Surprise will disabuse Americans of their concerns about crime, the economy, inflation, and illegal immigration.
 
Which huge money managers that have cast their lot with Team Biden/Obama will suffer after 11/8?
 
Google ‘targeting Senate’ after study shows ‘search bias’ doesn’t impact House, Media Research Center says  https://www.foxnews.com/media/google-targeting-senate-after-study-shows-search-bias-doesnt-impact-house-media-research-center-says
 
Fetterman released an ad this week with his parents who claimed to be “Trump-voting Republicans.” It turns out they are registered Democrats who never voted for Trump. https://t.co/Ft9QrvzOmf
 
Fed and BOE Prepare 75 Basis-Point Salvos on Inflation: Eco Week
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England may both unleash 75 basis-point interest-rate hikes in the coming days in a show of aggression toward inflation, even in the face of mounting recession risks.
The transatlantic double act illustrates the trade-off confronting central banks as evidence of an impending global economic contraction becomes harder to ignore, even as inflation lingers…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-29/fed-and-boe-prepare-75-basis-point-salvos-on-inflation-eco-week
https://canadatoday.news/ca/fed-boe-preparing-75-basis-point-salvos-on-inflation-eco-week-127515/
 
Nick Timiraos (WSJ): Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer
Buoyed by pandemic-fueled savings, consumers and businesses are proving less sensitive to tighter credit—complicating the Fed’s job (Nick gave hope to bulls; then took it a away on Saturday.)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614
 
Today – Upward seasonal biases for October performance gaming, start-November buying, and the Fed Day Rally remain.  Traders are especially excited to play the Fed Day Rally because there is beaucoup hope that the Fed will announce or indicate a pivot.  Also, the intermediate-term upward bias of November 1 to April 30 is nigh.
 
Ergo, traders of various classes will be extremely bullish into the FOMC Communique release and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday afternoon.  Powell, to avoid politicizing the Fed or perceptions of political bias, is likely to issue a brief statement and not amend recent Fed officials’ assertions.  After or during Powell’s press conference, stocks will be extraordinarily vulnerable to a tectonic plate shift.
PS – How could the Fed insinuate a pivot after a historic parabolic equity rally?
 
ESZs are -9.00 at 20:30 ET because Nick now says rates will be higher longer – traders wonder if Nick was tipped by Powell or some other Fed nabob.  Wheat traded as high as +7.3%.
 
Expected economic data: Oct Chicago PMI 47.2; Oct Dallas Fed Mfg Activity -16.8
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3842; 100-day MA: 3903; 150-day MA: 4013; 200-day MA: 4113
DJIA 50-day MA: 30,930; 100-day MA: 31,381; 150-day MA: 32,064; 200-day MA: 32,644
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4570.18 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 3951.16 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3677.70 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3847.29 triggers a sell signal
 
Biden torched for claiming gas was over $5 when he took office: ‘The lies are staggering’
Gas prices averaged about $2.39 per gallon when Biden took office
    “It’s not hyperbole to say Joe Biden is the biggest liar in presidential history. And that’s saying something because they all lie all the time. But he tells these bizarre black and white lies that any idiot can verify. It’s honestly very strange,” Jesse Kelly, host of “The Jesse Kelly Show,” wrote…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-torched-claiming-gas-took-office-lies-staggering
 
@RNCResearch: REPORTER: “Given record inflation, why should voters choose Democrats?”
BIDEN: “Because it’s not record inflation anymore. I’m bringing it down. Look at what we inherited.”
Inflation was at 1.4% when Biden took office. It’s now at 8.2%. Vote accordingly.
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1585793497579364352
 
@RNCResearch: Joe Biden suggests the record increases in food prices aren’t that big of a deal because “you’re going to see [people] buying other raisin bran.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1585790522274197504
 
Biden claims US has FIFTY-FOUR states as concerns continue to mount about his cognitive abilities https://t.co/i2hGtqB9W7
 
Is Kamala worried that Joe is going to fall off the stage? https://t.co/27STyK91Ln
 
Biden hunkers down for a long weekend in Delaware while Jill, Obama hit campaign trail
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11362633/Biden-hunkers-long-weekend-Delaware-Jill-Obama-hit-campaign-trail.html
 
Sen. Cruz aide @omriceren: It turns out that since the summer, the ground rules for interviews with Fetterman have included quote approval. Which means reporters who ran quotes from him accepted those ground rules, and so did their editors, and none of this got out. An industry of liberal hacks.
 
House Democratic Aide Fired after Ties to Chinese Embassy Revealed
Representative Don Beyer, who has been hawkish on China, moved swiftly to remove the employee after being notified of the activity by security officials…
https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/10/exclusive-house-democratic-aide-fired-after-ties-to-chinese-embassy-revealed/
 
Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul Pelosi ‘violently assaulted’ in San Francisco home
Nancy Pelosi “was in Washington, D.C. with her protective detail at the time of the overnight, break-in.”  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nancy-pelosi-husband-paul-assaulted-home-invasion-spokesman-says
 
No Surprise Here: Biden Blames Pelosi Attack on Trump Supporters
“And what makes us think that one party can talk about stolen elections, COVID being a hoax, that it’s all a bunch of lies, and it does not affect people who may not be so well balanced,” Biden said…
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/saraharnold/2022/10/29/no-surprise-here-biden-blames-pelosi-attack-on-trump-supporters-n2615205
 
Democrats, media jump the gun to pin Paul Pelosi assault on Trump, Republicans
The alleged attacker, David DePape, identified himself as a Green Party member… “is a Berkeley resident and a ‘Former Castro [District] Nudist Protester’ and hemp ‘jewelry maker’ … https://justthenews.com/accountability/media/right-wing-extremist-or-nudist-activist-disparate-theories-emerge-pelosi
 
Fox: “The suspect was arrested in his underwear...” https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1586075653790904320
 
@EricMMatheny: The Pelosi story doesn’t make sense at all. No random person can just break into the home of the 3rd in line to the United States Presidency. There’s more to this.
 
Paul Pelosi made secret 911 call after confronting attacker in his home
Police were at the home within two minutes of receiving the call and arrested David DePape, 42…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11367763/Paul-Pelosi-secret-911-call-confronting-attacker-San-Francisco-home.html
 
@kylenabecker: Police audio of SFPD’s ‘welfare check’ call about Paul Pelosi says that he called “David” a “friend” who seemed “confused.”  Context: This was a Berkeley nudist in his underwear struggling with another man in his underwear over a hammer at 2:30 am in San Francisco (“Not that there’s anything wrong with that!”) https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1586191001655222272
 
DePape forced his way into the home through a back entrance, Scott said. Officers arrived at the house, knocked on the front door and were let inside by an unknown person. They discovered DePape and Pelosi struggling for a hammer, and after they instructed them to drop the weapon, Scott said, DePape took the hammer and “violently attacked” Pelosi…. Pelosi had been able to dial 911 after telling the intruder he had to use the restroom and then called from inside, where his phone had been charging. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/28/police-pelosi-attack-intentional-00064098
 
@JohnLeFevre: There are 3 cameras on one side of Pelosi’s house…. And the cops were there (with body cams) before the assault started… let’s see the tapes.
https://twitter.com/JohnLeFevre/status/1586764085311455233/photo/1
     @OrangeMoneys Replying to @JohnLeFevre: And two in back
https://twitter.com/OrangeMoneys/status/1586789291174383619
 
We have no idea what transpired as Casa Pelosi; but reported ‘facts don’t compute.  Where was security?  ABC reports Pelosi “has been the target of several disturbing threats.”  Where is the security cam footage?  The NY Post reports that SF police have body-cam video of the attack.  It should show the unnamed person that answered the door.  Why didn’t the 3rd person in the Pelosi house intervene or call the police?  https://nypost.com/2022/10/29/paul-pelosi-spoke-in-code-to-alert-911-operator-of-hammer-attacker-report/amp/
 
@ABC: Nancy Pelosi has been the target of several disturbing threats in recent years, as threats against members of Congress have been on the rise overall, police data shows.  https://t.co/GiJg5tEH3a
 
Were any other DePape garments found in the house?  Reports say DePape broke through a door to enter Pelosi’s $6 million home (est.).  However, numerous people note photos show the glass was broken out of, not into the home.  We remember a “Columbo” with this inconsistency.
 
@DWWilber1: As a cop for 11 yrs in St. Louis I never once worked a burglary where the broken glass and debris at the entry point was OUTSIDE the residence.
https://twitter.com/DWWilber1/status/1586360183864713216
 
@FrischReport: Reporter on hot mic after San Francisco Police Press Conference regarding Paul Pelosi on the phone with boss: “Hey so is this the dude that is a former nudist dude?”  “Yea okay, is it okay to say any of that stuff?”  “Nope?”   https://twitter.com/FrischReport/status/1586050516710195203
 
Musk tells Hillary… that Paul Pelosi may have been involved with a male prostitute, citing local article  https://thepostmillennial.com/elon-musk-tells-hillary-clinton-that-paul-pelosi-may-have-been-involved-with-a-male-prostitute-citing-local-article
 
NYT: Elon Musk, in a Tweet, Shares Link From Site Known to Publish False News
In a reply to Mrs. Clinton’s tweet, Mr. Musk wrote, “There is a tiny possibility there might be more to this story than meets the eye” and then shared a link to an article in the Santa Monica Observer. The article alleges that Mr. Pelosi was drunk and in a fight with a male prostitute.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/30/business/musk-tweets-hillary-clinton-pelosi-husband.html
   @elonmusk replying to NYT: This is fake – I did *not* tweet out a link to The New York Times!
 
@SharylAttkisson: Wishing Paul Pelosi a full recovery. Whatever happened, it’s a far bigger scandal if authorities are covering up. Without knowing more, experienced police say there’s no legitimate reason why a “person” who opened the door wouldn’t be identified by police & in the public report.
 
On Sunday afternoon, the SFPD said there was no third person or security at Casa Pelosi.
 
Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco home vandalized overnight on New Year’s Day  January 2, 2021
On the street, guards like Fred Kennerley with a private security company hired specifically to protect multiple residents in the affluent neighborhood said, “She has her own security. She has capitol police they fly all the way out here from Washington DC with her.”…
https://abc7news.com/nancy-pelosi-san-francisco-home-vandalized/9265112/
 
DePape is a psychotic homeless addict with a politics that was, until recently, left-wing; “very radical activists,” said a neighbor, “all about BLM [and] Gay pride”
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/pelosi-attack-suspect-was-a-psychotic
 
@robbystarbuck: According to NBC, the FBI visited this home tied to the Paul Pelosi attack suspect who was arrested in his underwear at Pelosi’s house. It has a BLM sign, a Berkeley united against hate sign and a gay pride/pro marijuana flag. Suspect is a nudist & registered Green Party member. https://t.co/8ZaKa3ruL0
 
Two Far-Right Websites Attributed to David DePape to Smear Conservatives Were FABRICATED – They Were Created Friday and Deleted Saturday https://t.co/yAiOs1wUhT
 
Paul Pelosi attacker David DePape lived in a school bus https://trib.al/sgPcOKV
 
GOP Sen. @RandPaul: No one deserves to be assaulted. Unlike Nancy Pelosi’s daughter who celebrated my assault, I condemn this attack and wish Mr. Pelosi a speedy recovery.
 
@EndWokeness: “This might be one of my favorite stories” – MSNBC when Rand Paul was attacked by his neighbor.   https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1586059058838228994
    Nancy Pelosi threatening to knock out the President of the United States: “I’ve been waiting for this… I’m gonna punch him out and I’m gonna go to jail and be happy” https://t.co/k1LUROfjzc
 
Harris demands politicians ‘speak out against hate’ after Pelosi attack – despite Kavanaugh silence https://t.co/be3aP51DGO
 
Jesse Watters: Liberal media only cares about the crime wave when it comes to Nancy Pelosi’s house
https://www.foxnews.com/media/jesse-watters-liberal-media-only-cares-about-the-crime-wave-when-comes-nancy-pelosis-house
 
@CHSommers: Turns out the burglary of Katie Hobbs’ campaign headquarters in Arizona was carried out by a serial burglar. Police recognized him because he was already in custody for a second commercial break-inReuters https://t.co/Yk1dYNf33r
 
Six people are shot and injured, one critically, while outside a funeral in Pittsburgh https://trib.al/XU1o0Kf
 
Biden’s DOJ finally got a legal slapdown for targeting a group opposed to mutilating kids
https://nypost.com/2022/10/27/bidens-doj-finally-got-a-legal-slapdown-for-targeting-a-group-opposed-to-mutilating-kids/
 
@JJCarafano: When someone tells you voting for anyone but them is a threat to democracy-you have just met a threat to democracy!
 
Biden administration ignores demands from Congress, watchdogs for voting executive order documents – Several Republicans and watchdog groups are raising alarm about the scope of the Biden administration’s efforts in local elections…  https://t.co/EOSCs1ie8m
 
(GOP Candidate for AZ Gov) Kari Lake thanks Liz Cheney for attack ad (on Lake) after fundraising skyrockets: ‘Hated by both sides’ https://fxn.ws/3WdnqDo
 
Angry literary figures demand Amy Coney Barrett book be shut down in open letter to publisher https://t.co/GsSgn3Fiju
 
@JonathanTurley: The editors and writers call on the company to rescind a book deal with Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett because they disagree with her judicial philosophy. After all, why burn books when you can simply ban them?… https://t.co/MeK5hma332
 
Pranksters posing as laid-off Twitter employees trick media outlets: ‘Rahul Ligma’
“Quite ironic that a major news outlet failed to do basic diligence and fell for a crisis actor prank, resulting in the spread of misinfo, on the first day of new ownership,” Lee tweeted. “All you had to do was ask to see a badge or look for bird-themed stuff in the boxes. Also we don’t use Zoom.”…
https://nypost.com/2022/10/28/pranksters-posing-as-laid-off-twitter-employees-trick-media-outlets/
 
@JonathanTurley: The freak out from the Musk-phobic was triggered by the prospect of a single social media company offering greater free speech protections. They know that the effort to control political and social speech will be lost if people have an alternative...  https://t.co/G5pkOmFMCV
 
@ggreenwald: The people who work for the newspaper owned by Jeff Bezos and who write for the magazine controlled and funded by Laurene Powell Jobs are very worried this morning about the unprecedented crisis we face of billionaires buying and controlling the flow of news and information. https://t.co/b6WgNLKdPl
 
 

 

GREG HUNTER REPORT INTERVIEWING DR. S BHAKDI

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CV19 Vax Destroys Hearts & Brains of Billions of People – Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi

CV19 Vax Destroys Hearts & Brains of Billions of People – Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi

By Greg Hunter On October 29, 2022 In Political Analysis133 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com Saturday Night Post)

World renowned microbiologist and virologist professor Sucharit Bhakdi MD has won many medical and scientific awards and has more than 300 peer reviewed research papers.  Dr. Bhakdi was one of the first top global doctors to warn about the deadly and debilitating effects of the CV19 vax.  He was right.  Dr. Bhakdi says there is proof that if the injections reach the heart or the brain, they will be damaged beyond repair.  Dr. Bhakdi brings up one autopsy that found this and explains, “In multiple parts of the brain in this deceased man, the doctor found the same thing. . . . He found the damned spike proteins in the smallest capillaries of the brain. . . There is no repair because what the doctor found was these small vessels were attacked by the immune system and destroyed.  The doctor found irrefutable evidence of brain cell damage of cells that are dead and dying. This poor fellow died because his brain cells were dying. . . . The same patient that died . . . . had this multifocal, meaning at many different locations, necrotizing, meaning dying, encephalitis. . . . He had typical things being seen now in people post vax.  They lose their personality.  They lose their minds.  They lose their capacity to think.  They become demented.  They can’t hear.  They can’t speak.  They can’t see.  They are no longer the humans that they were.  They are destroyed human beings.  Their brains are destroyed.  The doctor found something so terrible he had to publish right away.  This was published October 1, 2022, in “Vaccine,” which is a leading scientific journal.  It’s peer reviewed, and it was accepted right away. . . . It can be read by anyone.  I beseech you to read it for yourself.  The doctor doing the autopsy found apart from these terrible things happening to the brain, the same things were happening in the heart.  It was happening in the heart of the same patient.  He saw these same damned devil designed spike proteins.  This means the gene that the perpetrators injected into billions of people reach the vessels of the brain and the heart.  They are killing people.  They are killing people in the most terrible, terrifying and tormenting way.”

Dr. Ryan Cole, Dr. Mike Yeadon and I always sing the same thing.  You have to realize we did not know each other until Covid came, and there are so many others.  They are not stupid, and they are wonderful and intelligent people, and if everyone is saying the same thing, you have to start thinking we may be right.  If we are right, and I say it’s not me, I am one of thousands, and these thousands are right maybe, you are killing yourself and your children and your loved ones.  Why do you do this?  Why?”

Dr. Bhakdi contends that the world should stop the injections now. . . . and Covid is a “criminal hoax.”

In closing, Dr. Bhakdi says, “I am afraid to say it, but up until one and a half years ago, I was a scientist.  Now, I see what is going on.  I have to admit that the colleagues and friends of mine that have been telling me that this is genocide may be right.  I don’t know, but I feel in my mind there can be no other agenda.  There is no other explanation.  There is no other explanation because it is clear these gene-based vaccines are not needed because we are not dealing with a killer virus that is destroying mankind.  Anyone who says otherwise is obviously lying to your face.  Second, it is obvious these so-called vaccines could never ever have protected against infection. . . . Third, and the worst, these gene-based vaccines are the most terrible instruments that have ever been introduced into the human body to destroy humans. . . . These vaccines are going to destroy mankind.”

There is much more in the 53-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes one on one with world renowned microbiologist and virologist, professor Sucharit Bhakdi MD for 10.29.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/cv19-vax-destroys-hearts-brains-of-billions-of-people-dr-sucharit-bhakdi/)

After the Interview:   

Dr. Bhakdi says the German government is persecuting him with totally false charges of antisemitism, but he is really being punished for speaking out against the CV19 vax.  Early on he told people not to get the CV19 injections.  If convicted, Dr. Bhakdi says he faces 5 years in prison.  His trial is in 2023.

WILL SEE YOU MONDAY

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