NOV 4/GOLD AND SILVER RISE AS BANKERS ASK FOR DELIVERY FROM THEIR SPEC SHORTS: GOLD CLOSED UP $44.45 TO $1673.30//SILVER RISES A HUGE $1.31 UP TO $20.74//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $34.95 TO $957.45//PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $37.30 TO $1852.90//COVID UPDATES: VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//ALASDAIR MACLEOD EGON VON GREYERZ AND DR MICHAEL HUDSON : A MUST VIEW AND READ//IN ISRAEL BENJAMIN NETANYAHU TO BECOME NEW PRIME MINISTER//USA ISSUES ITS JOBS REPORT AND IT IS A TOTAL PHONY!!//WELLS FARGO ANNOUNCES A 90% COLLAPSE IN LOANS AS THE ECONOMY CRATERS//TWITTER’S RED WEDDING BEGINS IN EARNEST TODAY WITH PERHAPS 50% OF EMPLOYEES DISMISSED//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP $44.45 to $1673.30

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  UP $1.31  to $20.74

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1681.00

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 20.88

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $20,606 UP 334

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,989 UP 637

Platinum price closing  UP $34.95  AT  $957,45

Palladium price; closing UP $37,35  at $1852.90

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: 2264.08 DOLLARS UP 24.45 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ

BRITISH GOLD: 1476;38 POUNDS PER OZ UP 17.80 POUNDS PER OZ

EURO GOLD: 1686,67 EUROS PER OZ UP 15.03 EUROS PER OZ.

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 11/03/2022 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 11/03/2022
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:27:57
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,627.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/03/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 11/07/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


132 C SG AMERICAS 147 16
190 H BMO CAPITAL 53
323 C HSBC 33
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 23
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 458 189
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 45 20
800 C MAREX SPEC 11 5
880 C CITIGROUP 53
880 H CITIGROUP 311
905 C ADM 3


TOTAL: 686 686

JPMORGAN STOPPED  189/1686

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV. CONTRACT:    686 NOTICES FOR 68,600 OZ  or 2.1337 TONNES

total notices so far: 4553 contracts for 455,300 oz (14.1617 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  154 :  for 770,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $44.45

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A BIG CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 920.57 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $1.31

AT THE SLV// :/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 4.972 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 477.678 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 376 CONTRACTS TO 139,096 AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.16 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.  OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.16)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGE OF 1015 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD ZERO SPEC SHORT COVERING  THEIR SHORTFALLS, BUT MASSIVE SHORT ADDITIONS // OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER PRICES 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) ZERO  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS BUT HUGE SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.045 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 85,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:1.305 MILLION OZ/    / //  V)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ 

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: +36

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 4 days, total 3465 contracts: 17.325 million oz  OR 4.331MILLION OZ PER DAY. (866 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 17.325 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 17.325 MILLION

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 340 DESPITE OUR  $0.16 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 675 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.345 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 85,000 QUEUE JUMP/  .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1015 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.075 MILLION  OZ..

 WE HAD 0  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  nil  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 15,685 CONTRACTS  TO 482,745 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -185  CONTRACTS.

.

THE GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $18.30//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY //  ZERO SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS//HUGE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS, ACCOMPANYING OUR MONSTER SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION   // CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER 98,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $18.30 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 26,875 OI CONTRACTS 83.593 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A MONSTER SIZED 11,190 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 482,743

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 26,875 CONTRACTS  WITH 15,685 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 11,190 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 27,060 CONTRACTS OR 84.167 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (11,190) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (15,675): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 26,875 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) ZERO SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS AS WELL AS HUGE SHORT SPEC GAINS/// // CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC  ADDITIONS AT THE LOWER PRICE  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 98,800 OZ //NEW STANDING 20.090 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) MONSTER ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

NOV

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :

19,343 CONTRACTS OR 1,934,300 OZ OR 60.16 TONNES 4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4835 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 60.16 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  60.16/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.69% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  60.16 TONNES//INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED  376 CONTRACT OI TO  139.096 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 675 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 650  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  675 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI  GAIN OF 376  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 650  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN  OF 1055  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.255MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.16

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 72.99 PTS OR 2.43%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 821.65 OR  5.36%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 463.65 OR 1.68%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  0.55%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7.2467 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.2300//    /Oil UP TO 91,36 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 97.79    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 15,685  CONTRACTS TO 482,743 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF $18.30  IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A POWERFUL SIZED EFP (11,140 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED HUGE NUMBER OF SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY WILL BE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON -ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A POWERFUL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 11,190 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC : 11,190  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 11,190 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED  TOTAL OF 26,875  CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,190 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GIGANTIC  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 15,685  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS MONSTROUS SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $18.30//WE HAD HUGE SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS  WITH BANKERS  AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS.  WE ALSO HAD STRONG ADDITIONAL  NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG  WITH ZERO SPEC SHORT COVERINGS

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING NOV   (20.087),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 20.087 TONNES/INITIAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 564.435 TONNES)

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $18.30) AND WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES//// SPEC SHORTS COVERED ZERO OF THEIR   POSITIONS, BUT DID ADD A HUGE QUANTITY TO THEIR SHORT SIDE AS WE HAD A MONSTROUS SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 27060 CONTRACTS //     WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI  OF 84.167 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (20.087 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.55 

WE HAD -185  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 26,875 CONTRACTS OR 2,687,500  OZ OR  83.593 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 281,811//  fair to good//

final gold volumes/yesterday  292,651/ fair to good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //NOV 4

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 66,752.454oz


Brinks
Delaware
Manfra


includes 1003 kilobars/Brinks
 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today686   notice(s)
68,600  OZ
2.1377 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1905 contracts 
190,500 oz
5.924 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month4553 notices
455,300
14.1617TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits  nil oz

 customer withdrawals:3

ii) Out of Brinks 32,247.460   (1003 kilobars)

ii) Out of Delaware 9963.085 oz

iii) Out of Manfra  24,641.454 oz

total:  66,752.454 oz

total in tonnes: 2.076 tonnes

Adjustments: 4// all dealer to customer

i) Out of Brinks 17,747.352 oz

ii) Out of jPMorgan 12,298.967 oz

iii) out of Loomis:  35,108.892 oz

iv) Out of Manfra:  37,275.848 oz   

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER.

For the front month of NOV. we have an oi of 2591 contracts having LOST ONLY 63 contracts.   We had  1050 notices served on THURSDAY so we gained a whopping 987

or an additional 98,700 OZ (3.07 TONNES) will stand in this non active month of November.  We will have Nov gold tonnage standing increase daily from this day forth until the end of the month.

This queue jumping originates in London with the exercising of London based EFP’s for comex gold.

December GAINED 1081 contracts UP to 348,168.

JANUARY  GAINED 1 contract to stand at 37.

February gained 12,220 contacts up to 94,423.

We had 686 notice(s) filed today for 68,600 oz 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  458  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 686 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 189 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4553) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (NOV 2591 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 686 x 100 oz per contract equals 645,800 OZ  OR 20.087 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   non active month of NOV. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV. contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4553) x 100 oz+   (2591)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (686} x 100 oz} which equals 645,800 oz standing OR 20.087  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOV..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  20.090 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING//NEW RECORD FOR NOV (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,008,987.584 OZ   62.48 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  24,595,130.845 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,228,894.295  OZ (349.265tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,367,236.550OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,219,907 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 286.77 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

NOV 4//INITIAL NOV. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory24,172.570 oz



CNT
Brinks

 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,200,528.210 oz

HSBC
Loomis

 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)0  CONTRACT(S)  
 (nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)107 contracts 
(535,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)154 contracts
 (770,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  2 withdrawals out of the customer account

i) Out of Brinks  3950.400 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 20,222.170 oz

Total withdrawals:  24,172.570 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 154,725million oz/300.390 million =51.51% of comex .//dropping fast

 Comex deposits: 2

i) Into HSBC: 600,801.380 oz

ii) Into Loomis:  599,726.830 os

total:  1,200,528.210  oz

 adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.810 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 300.390 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI: 107 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 46 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 63 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 17 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 85,000 OZ WILL STAND

FOR SILVER IN THIS VERY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 1352 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 103,011 (WE WILL HAVE A DANDY DEC. DELIVERY MONTH)

JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 39 CONTRACTS UP TO 1283 CONTACTS.

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:0 for NIL   oz

Comex volumes:72,926// est. volume today// very good   

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 68,586 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  154 x 5,000 oz = 770,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(107) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the NOV../2022 contract month: 154 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (107)  – number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV. contract month equates 1,305,000 oz. 

We will gain in silver oz standing from this day forth until the end of the month.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:104,869// est. volume today//    huge/shorts covered

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 77,563 contracts ( good)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $44.45 TO $1673.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROMTHE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES.

NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.

NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES

OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//

OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 911.59TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.31 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.972 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//

NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ

OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.

OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/

OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///

OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//

Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 477.678 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

–HOW GLOBAL MARKETS FAIL AND GOLD SUCCEEDS: DEBT, DERIVATIVES & POLITICIZED (I.E., DISHONEST) CENTRAL BANKS

Egon von Greyerz..

https:/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84toOT7boEI&t=165s

Matterhorn Asset Management’s founding partner, Egon von Greyerz, joins Darryl and Brian Panes of As Good as Gold Australia for an in-depth discussion on the state of global financial markets and the inevitable demise of paper currency and rise of physical gold.

In an alarming backdrop of falling markets, open war, pandemic overreach, record-breaking debt levels and increased supply chain pressures, the Panes ask the obvious question: What and who led to this now undeniable global mess? As indicated by a recent observation in The Economist, the main culprit offered therein is the absolute mismanagement of fiat currencies by central banks around the world. Such mismanagement (living on deficits rather than surpluses) has been the direct cause of equally unprecedented and unsustainable global debt levels of which no intelligent business or family could ever conceive and yet which governments around the world pursue on a daily basis.

Egon, of course, is glad to see more periodicals like The Economist finally addressing such issues, but these central-bank-driven boom and bust cycles engineered by grotesque levels of fantasy/mouse-clicked fiat currencies and unpayable debt levels are forces of which he has been warning for over 20 years. All fault and responsibility easily begins with the money printers in general and the Fed in particular. But as political rather than financial players, central bankers will do what all politicians do—assign blame elsewhere.

Toward that end, the crippling inflation, currency, market, pension, trade and suicidal energy policies pursued by the EU under the misguided pressure of the US will be blamed on Putin today (COVID yesterday and global warming tomorrow) rather than decades of the self-destructive debt-print-and-spend policies of the global central banks.

Turning to gold, Egon draws careful comparison to the DOW/gold ratio and argues for a dramatically falling DOW and equally dramatic rise in the free-pricing of physical gold once paper currencies and futures contracts in the soon-to-implode derivatives markets lose all credibility.

Markets have enjoyed a “stay of execution” by inflationary central bank money printing for far too long, and this has exponentially increased the global debt levels and hence global risk levels. Again, and as Egon reminds, this is a direct result of years of central bank madness. In the end, however, history is a clear guide of the inevitable consequences of such policy insantiy, namely the ruin of paper currencies and the rise of real, physical assets, including monetary metals like gold.

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Your weekend reading material: the Great unwind ii

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: The Great Unwind, II

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-11-03 10:23Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, November 3, 2022

With price inflation rising out of control and interest rates rising strongly, the trading environment for commercial banks has fundamentally changed. With bad debts looming and bond prices in entrenched downtrends, procrastination is now the enemy of bankers.

We are at the beginning of The Great Unwind, and this article elaborates on my first article for Goldmoney on the subject, published here:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/banking-crisis-the-great-unwind?gmrefcode=gata

The imperative for bankers to respond to these conditions overrides all other matters if their businesses are to survive these changed conditions. We are entering a cyclical downdraft of the bank credit cycle that promises to be cataclysmic. And the monetary policy planners at the central banks can do nothing to stop it.

After outlining the scale of the problems faced by each global systemically important bank, this article looks at the future for the $600 trillion derivatives mountain. It was born out of the long-term decline in interest rates from the mid-1980a, which ended last year. It is almost entirely distributed through banks and shadow banks.

The questions to address are: What is the future for the derivatives mountain now that the long-term trend for falling interest rates is over? And what are the economic consequences? …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/the-great-unwind-1?gmrefcode=gata

end

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES:

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.2300 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.2467

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 72.99 PTS OR  2.43%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 821.65 OR 5.36% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 463.65 PTS OR 1.65%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL  GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  112.26/Euro RISES TO 0.97954

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249!!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 147.70/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP-//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.286%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.451%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.345%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.676//

3j Gold at $1650.95//silver at: 19.95  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 0/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 62.10//

3m oil into the 91 dollar handle for WTI and  97 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 147.70DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 1.0063– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9860well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.161% UP 4 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.200% UP 5 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,62…GETTTING DANGEROUS

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.5855%

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Jump On China Reopening Rumors Ahead Of Key Jobs Report

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 07:58 AM

US futures jumped and the Nasdaq 100 was poised to trim its biggest weekly drop since the start of the year as optimism about China’s reopening boosted Wall Street futures despite the looming risk of another hotter-than-expected payrolls report. As reported earlier, Chinese stocks in Hong Kong headed for their best week since 2015, and the yuan strengthened amid fresh speculation that Beijing was set to ease covid-zero policies. The frenzy was sparked earlier this week on unverified social media posts indicating Beijing could be preparing to exit the strict Covid zero policy. There’s a flurry of new market-friendly headlines adding fuel to the rally, which boosted US-listed Chinese stocks while miners led gains in Europe as commodities rallied, while luxury stocks also got a boost.

After closing at the lowest level since July 2020 on Thursday, as tech stocks fell out of favor this year as the Federal Reserve tightened its monetary policy, Nasdaq 100 contracts rose 0.8% by 5 a.m. in New York after the tech-heavy gauge plunged 7.4% this week, erasing $1.1 trillion in market capitalization. S&P 500 futures gained 0.7%, putting the underlying gauge on track to pare a 4.6% weekly decline — the steepest since September.

In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks like Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd., JD.com Inc., and Baidu Inc. surged as China-linked sentiment got a lift after Bloomberg News reported China is working on plans to scrap a system that penalizes airlines for bringing virus cases into the country, a sign that authorities are looking for ways to ease the impact of the Covid Zero policy.  Cloud software stocks dropped in premarket trading after revenue forecasts from peers Atlassian and Twilio fell short of expectations, triggering analyst downgrades. Atlassian falls 23% in premarket trading, the stock is set for its biggest drop since its debut; Twilio fell as much as 27% in premarket trading; the stock is set for its biggest drop since May 3, 2017.  Here are some of the other notable premarket movers:

  • The conservative-targeting money processor PayPal fell 8.3% in premarket trading after the payments platform cut its forecast for annual revenue amid a slowdown in spending. Analysts note that a strong dollar and other macroeconomic headwinds are weighing on the company’s forecast.
  • Block Inc. shares surge 14% in US premarket trading after the digital payments company’s adjusted Ebitda beat expectations and boosted optimism that the company can weather a slowdown in the economy. Brokers in particular singled out the performance of the firm’s Cash App business, saying its potential isn’t fully recognized by investors.
  • DoorDash jumps 11% in premarket trading after the food delivery platform topped revenue estimates, driven by strong appetite for takeout. Analysts noted that demand remained resilient and the company does not seem to be affected by inflationary and macro headwinds.
  • Coinbase shares rallied as much as 9.1% in US premarket trading, with analysts saying that the cryptocurrency platform provider’s growth in subscription revenue and a narrower loss were reasons for optimism. These positives showed that the company’s efforts to control costs were working, even as trading volume was underwhelming as expected due to the slump in prices of digital currencies this year.
  • Kratos forecast adjusted Ebitda for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate, as the defense and security company faces hiring challenges and supply-chain disruptions. Shares declined 9.3% in US postmarket trading..
  • Twilio fell as much as 22% in premarket trading, after the infrastructure software company gave a fourth-quarter revenue forecast that came in below estimates. Analysts noted that the company’s analyst day left them wanting as it “raised new concerns” instead of extinguishing existing ones.

Focus next will turn to US payrolls data at 830am ET on Friday, where 195,000 jobs are expected for October, compared with 263,000 in September. Unemployment rate projected at 3.6% (our payrolls preview is here). The US two-year yield topped 4.75% for the first time since 2007 after a key segment of the curve reached an extreme of inversion not seen since the 1980s, an anomaly that historically preceded economic downturns.

“Key focal point could be the US NFP release tonight which could provide a better sense of tightening trajectory and the eventual peak of terminal rates,” said Fiona Lim, senior currency analyst at Malayan Banking Berhad in Singapore. “Investors chase that flickering light at the end of the Covid-Zero tunnel,” said Stephen Innes, a managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

“Today’s numbers need to be viewed in the light of other labor market statistics that shows labor demand holding up,” said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital. “The concerns over still strong inflationary pressures will be trumping any meaningful easing that the labor market might be pointing to.”

Chair Jerome Powell left little doubt that he’s prepared to push interest rates as high as needed to stamp out inflation after the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. Traders will parse jobs data due later on Friday for signs of a slowing labor market, which could convince the bank to adopt a less hawkish stance. Swaps that reference future Federal Reserve meetings indicate an expected peak policy rate above 5.14% around mid-2023.

“We think the Fed is much closer to pausing than the market is pricing and much closer than what they’re trying to convey,” said Isaac Poole, chief investment officer at Oreana Financial Services, who expects the US central bank to end hiking by December or January. “Maybe we’ll see a bit more near-term volatility, but I think there are real opportunities for upside in equities over the next 12 months,” he told Bloomberg TV.

European stocks rallied for the first time in the past three sessions on optimism about China’s reopening. Euro Stoxx 50 rallies 1.6%. CAC 40 outperforms peers, adding 1.7%, IBEX lags. Miners, consumer products and chemicals are the strongest performing sectors. Shares with high business exposure to China rallied the most on Friday as authorities were said to be making efforts to ease the impact of their Covid-Zero policy. Europe’s automobile and parts subsector outperformed the Stoxx 600 index, rising as much as 2.0%. Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari are among the biggest contributors to the sector advance. European luxury stocks also jumped as key market China is said to be preparing a plan to end a system that penalizes airlines for bringing virus cases into the country. Swatch Group is among the best performing rising as much as 3.6%, Richemont +3.3%, Hermes International +2.3%, Burberry +1.3%, Christian Dior +2%, LVMH +1.7%, Pandora +2.6% Italian luxury stocks also jumped with Moncler +2.7%, Tod’s +1.6% and Salvatore Ferragamo +2.6%. Here are some of the biggest European movers:

  • Europe’s basic resources sector is the best-performing subindex in the Stoxx 600 benchmark as iron ore heads for its first weekly gain in two months, with traders buying on speculation China may be planning to remove some Covid Zero restrictions. KGHM leads advances, rising 10%, Anglo American +9.4%, Rio Tinto +7%
  • Andritz shares jump as much as 11%, the most since July, after results from the hydropower station equipment supplier that analysts said were “excellent” and show the company’s resilience to a tough macro environment
  • GN Store Nord climbs as much as 15% after company notified that William Demant Invest has increased its aggregate holding of shares to above 10% of the share capital and voting rights in company.
  • Rovi slides as much as 13% with Jefferies flagging that the Spanish pharmaceutical company’s guidance for 2023 as well as 9-month Ebitda missed consensus estimates.
  • Leonardo declines as much as 8.4% as worries over inflation overshadow the Italian aerospace technology company’s beat on 3Q Ebita and revenue and its strong orders.
  • Kering jumps as much as 5.5% after a report that the French company is in advanced talks to buy Tom Ford.
  • Enel falls as much as 3.5% after the Italian power utility cut its adjusted net guidance for the year, partly reflecting a decline in hydroelectric power generation.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said interest rates may need to be lifted to restrictive levels to drag inflation back to the 2% target. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said the BOE is trying to strike a balance between bringing inflation back to target and preventing an unnecessarily deep recession by raising interest rates too aggressively.

“Our view has been for a while that the only way central banks can credibly tame inflation is through tighter financial conditions and slower growth,” Barclays analysts wrote in a note. “Chairman Powell made it clear that over tightening may be a less costly option over the long run than doing too little. So as it stands, we find few reasons to stop worrying about a hard landing.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rebounded as China and Hong Kong staged a strong comeback amid speculation that China is poised to exit its stringent Covid-zero policy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.6%, lifted by consumer discretionary and financial shares. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong capped their best week since 2015 as shares linked to reopening jumped amid fresh signs of easing Covid restrictions. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index saw the biggest weekly jump since 2011 and China’s CSI 300 Index capped its best week since mid-2020. The rally follows days of speculation on the back of unverified social media posts detailing a reopening plan. While similar Chinese rallies have all fizzled in recent months, bulls are now betting that some of the world’s lowest valuations have left the nation’s shares primed to surge on any hint of good news. Separately, Chinese President Xi Jinping told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz he opposed the use of nuclear force in Europe, in his most direct remarks yet on the need to keep Russia’s war in Ukraine from escalating.

Part of China’s gains were also spurred by tech companies, with a gauge of tech stocks listed in Hong Kong surging more than 7% after Bloomberg News reported progress in efforts to prevent delisting of hundreds of Chinese stocks from US exchanges. US audit officials completed their first on-site inspection round of Chinese companies ahead of schedule.

But the recent gains might not sustain, according to market watchers.  “Market dynamics remain relatively subdued despite some short-lived excitement over chatter around Covid-Zero policy changes,” Morgan Stanley strategists including Laura Wang wrote in a note. She expects near-term volatility to “stay high with complexity around Covid relaxation.” Gains in other Asian markets were relatively subdued, with Japanese shares underperforming the region as the market returned from a holiday. The Asian stock benchmark was poised for a weekly gain of more than 2%, the first in four weeks, as the reopening boost in China offset downside risks from further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Still, the gauge is down about 28% this year

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.5% after rising 0.7% Thursday and the dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers, in a commodity-currency led advance. DKK and EUR are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, AUD and NZD outperform.

  • The euro advanced after slumping all other trading days this week. Bunds were steady while Italian bonds inched up
  • The pound rebounded from a two-week low of 1.1150 per dollar and gilts inched up, led by the belly. Money markets pared pricing for BOE hikes by up to 10bps. BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill said the Bank of England is trying to strike a balance between bringing inflation back to target and preventing an unnecessarily deep recession by raising interest rates too aggressively. Pill speaks again later on Friday
  • The Australian dollar was the best G-10 performer. The currency rose by as much as 1.2% versus the dollar, and snapped six straight days of declines as Chinese stocks and iron ore prices surged amid China reopening speculation. Australia’s bonds bounced back with RBA’s quarterly monetary policy statement underscoring the central bank’s expectation it will soon reach peak rates even at a modest pace of hikes

In rates, the Treasury curve flattened as yields were between 3bps lower and 2bps higher from yesterday’s close while Germany’s 5y30y yield curve inverts for the first time since late September. Treasury yields slightly cheaper vs Thursday’s close with front-end underperforming — 2-year touched 4.75%, new multiyear high — as market braces for the October jobs report at 8:30am New York time. 2-year yield rose as much as 3.7bp, lagging rest of the curve; 10-year little changed near 4.16% with bunds slightly outperforming and gilts slightly lagging. Front-end underperformance continues to flatten 2s10s spread, which reached -61.9bp, new generational extreme; in Europe, German 5s30s curve inverts for the first time since end of September. Estoxx50 higher by almost 2% into early US session while S&P 500 futures climb 0.8%, paring Thursday’s drop; WTI futures up 3.5%. October jobs report expected to print 195k headline number (whisper number is 231k) with unemployment rate at 3.6%. Price action rangebound in the overnight session, also across core European bonds, while stocks have rallied, led by Estoxx50.

UK bonds fell after Andrew Hauser, executive director for markets at the BOE, said the central bank will outline how it will unwind its recent emergency gilt purchases “shortly.”

In commodities, crude futures rally. WTI up 3% to trade near $91. Brent rises 2.6% to top $97 amid optimism a China will boost oil demand; Commodities are also bolstered by the USD’s pullback and. Saudi Arabia set December Arab light crude OSP to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 5.45/bbl, while it set OSP to NW Europe at ICE Brent + USD 1.70/bbl and to the US at ASCI + USD 6.35/bbl. Spot gold has struggled to surpass the USD 1650/oz mark where its 21-DMA lies just above at USD 1651.7/oz, while base metals are deriving broad support on the China/COVID narrative.

Bitcoin has broken out of the last few sessions tight parameters and resides towards the top end of this range just above the USD 20.5k mark.

Looking to the day ahead now, the main highlight will be the US jobs report for October. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s data on German factory orders, French industrial production and Euro Area PPI for September, alongside the final services and composite PMIs for October. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, Bundesbank President Nagel, the Fed’s Collins and BoE Chief Economist Pill.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,740.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 412.46
  • MXAP up 1.2% to 139.46
  • MXAPJ up 2.3% to 449.33
  • Nikkei down 1.7% to 27,199.74
  • Topix down 1.3% to 1,915.40
  • Hang Seng Index up 5.4% to 16,161.14
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.4% to 3,070.80
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 60,727.51
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,892.46
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,348.43
  • German 10Y yield down 1% to 2.22%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $0.9774
  • Brent Futures up 2% to $96.54/bbl
  • Gold spot up 1.1% to $1,647.66
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.36% to 112.52

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde said interest rates may need to be lifted to restrictive levels to drag inflation back to its 2% target
  • Inflation in the euro zone will likely remain above the European Central Bank’s target for an extended period, raising the risk of a price-wage spiral, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said in a speech
  • German factory orders continued to decline in September, adding to concerns that Europe’s largest economy is slipping into recession as it struggles with surging energy costs. Demand fell 4% from the previous month, a steeper drop than the 0.5% median estimate in a Bloomberg poll of economists and accelerating from a revised 2% decrease in August
  • A Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiment has found that a central bank digital currency using distributed ledger technology could reduce the time it takes to settle foreign exchange transactions from two days to under 10 seconds, a top New York Fed official said
  • Cash is king, with investors fleeing to the safety of cash funds at the fastest pace since the coronavirus pandemic as the Federal Reserve remains firmly hawkish, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mixed with Chinese stocks rallying on unverified reopening rumours, although the rest of the region was contained after the wave of central bank rate hikes and ahead of the NFP jobs data. ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in the commodity-related sectors although gains were limited by weakness in defensives and the top-weighted financial sector, while the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy provided little in the way of fresh insight and included a downgrade to growth projections. Nikkei 225 was hit on return from holiday and reacted to the recent FOMC and Powell’s hawkish remarks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rallied with the Hong Kong benchmark spearheaded by tech and with EV makers boosted following a jump in BYD’s new energy vehicle sales, while sentiment was also boosted as US audit inspectors finished on-site China work ahead of schedule and amid unverified rumours of China reopening.

Top Asian News

  • US audit inspectors finished on-site China work ahead of schedule, according to Bloomberg.
  • Chinese President Xi met with German Chancellor Scholz and said as big nations with influence, China and Germany should work together all the more in times of change and turmoil to make a greater contribution to world peace and development, according to state media.
  • German Chancellor Scholz said his meeting with Chinese President Xi is at a time of big tension and that the Russian war on Ukraine brings big problems for rule-based order, while they will talk about Europe-China relations and the fight against climate change and world hunger. Scholz added they will also talk about how to develop economic relations and on topics where their perspectives are different.
  • Japan’s government is said to issue JPY 22.8tln in bonds for the extra budget with total issuance for FY22/23 revised upward to a record JPY 62.5tln, according to Reuters.
  • RBA Statement on Monetary Policy said the board expects rates will need to increase further and policy is not on a pre-set path, while they will hike in larger steps or pause if considered necessary. Furthermore, the RBA cut economic growth forecasts in which it sees GDP at 2.9% in December 2022, 1.4% in December 2023 and 1.6% in December 2024, while it lifted the inflation forecast which it sees at 8.0% in December 2022, 4.7% in December 2023 and 3.2% in December 2024.
  • China is working on a plan to scrap COVID flight suspensions, according to Bloomberg.
  • China’s Health Authorities are to hold a presser on targeted COVID prevention on November 5th at 15:00 local time (07:00GMT/03:00ET).

European bourses are firmer across the board as the complex benefits from further rumours around an easing of China’s COVID policy, with a presser on prevention due on the weekend; Euro Stoxx 50 +1.4%. Additional upside occurred in wake of upward revisions to the regions PMI metrics; however, the magnitude of this was limited as internal commentary remained downbeat and the metrics are still in contractionary territory. Stateside, futures are firmer across the board with magnitudes a touch more contained vs Europe, ES +0.7%, as the region awaits the NFP print.

Top European News

  • Rolex Lifts Prices Again in Europe as US Dollar Stays Strong
  • German Factory Orders Accelerate Drop as Recession Looms
  • EU’s Breton Urges Carmakers to Keep Producing Combustion Engines
  • Paschi Completes Full Rights Offer Subscription, Shares Fall
  • GN Store Nord Shares Soar as Demant Invest Raises Holding
  • Naspers Surges in Johannesburg on China Reopening Hopes

FX

  • DXY has pulled back from overnight peaks, where it tested but failed to attain 113.00; a pullback in the context of constructive overall sentiment amid China-COVID rumours/reports and upward PMI revisions.
  • Antipodeans outperform given base metal action on the mentioned COVID rumours, a narrative which has also buoyed the Yuan which itself was subject to a firmer-than-expected Yuan midpoint.
  • EUR/USD has been unable to reclaim 0.98 despite favorable PMI revisions and the USD’s pullback; note, substantial OpEx lies between 0.9790-0.9800.
  • Cable was unreactive to the BoE’s Chief Economist reiterating lines from Bailey in pushing-back on market pricing; nonetheless, the Pound has eclipsed 1.12 and is among the outperformers following Thursday’s underperformance.

Fixed Income

  • Core benchmarks are little changed overall with USTs essentially flat on the session and yields holding within recent parameters as we count down to the NFP print.
  • Bund has trimmed initial 50 tick upside following remarks from ECB’s Lagarde which incl. hawkish undertones on the wage front, German benchmark now little changed overall.
  • In contrast, Gilts continue to slip and are lower by 50 ticks around 101.50 post-Pill highlighting that recent turmoil has not distracted them from their QT goals.

Commodities

  • Commodities are bolstered amid the USD’s pullback and on further reopening rumours re. China
  • WTI and Brent front-month futures are firmer on the day with the former just under USD 91/bbl and the latter around USD 97.00/bbl.
  • Saudi Arabia set December Arab light crude OSP to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 5.45/bbl, while it set OSP to NW Europe at ICE Brent + USD 1.70/bbl and to the US at ASCI + USD 6.35/bbl.
  • MMG said it has been forced to commence a progressive slow-down of its Las Bambas operation amid disruptions due to blockades by communities, while it continues to work with the government of Peru and communities along the site’s logistic route.
  • US and allies have reached agreement on which sales of Russian oil will be subject to a price cap, WSJ reports; “Each load of seaborne Russian oil will only be subject to the price cap when it is first sold to a buyer on land, meaning resales of the same oil won’t have to fall under the cap”, according to WSJ sources.
  • Spot gold has struggled to surpass the USD 1650/oz mark where its 21-DMA lies just above at USD 1651.7/oz, while base metals are deriving broad support on the China/COVID narrative

Geopolitics

  • US officials have no clear timing for when North Korea might conduct a nuclear test and would like to see China and Russia use their leverage on North Korea to head off a nuclear test. Furthermore, the US is prepared to engage directly with North Korea and has sought to communicate with North Korea in private channels and through third parties, while it rejects the notion that the international community should treat North Korea as a nuclear power, according to a senior US administration official.
  • At least 180 North Korean warplanes take off in apparent show of force, via Yonhap; subsequently, South Korean has scrambled around 800 jets.
  • Taiwan Defence Ministry says 12 Chinese air force planes crossed the Taiwanese Strait Median Line on Friday, via Reuters.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Oct. Change in Private Payrolls, est. 200,000, prior 288,000
    • 08:30: Oct. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 195,000, prior 263,000
    • 08:30: Oct. Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 12,000, prior 22,000
  • 08:30: Oct. Unemployment Rate, est. 3.6%, prior 3.5%
    • 08:30: Oct. Underemployment Rate, prior 6.7%
  • 08:30: Oct. Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.3%, prior 62.3%
  • 08:30: Oct. Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
    • 08:30: Oct. Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.7%, prior 5.0%
  • 08:30: Oct. Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.5, prior 34.5

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s been another rough 24 hours in markets, with risk assets continuing to struggle after Fed Chair Powell’s Wednesday statement that “the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected”. Indeed, fed funds futures are now pricing in their most hawkish expectations to date, with terminal rate expectations closing above 5.1% for the first time.

This fresh bout of hawkishness served to knock equities yet again, with the S&P 500 (-1.06%) building on the previous day’s losses to fall for a 4th consecutive session. That brings its losses for the week to -4.64%, and the effects have been particularly pronounced among the more interest-sensitive sectors like tech. For example the NASDAQ (-1.73%) is now on track for its second-worst weekly performance since March 2020, having lost -6.84% over the last four days. Furthermore, the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks fell a further -1.53% yesterday, meaning that it’s now down by over -48% since its peak exactly a year ago today.

If that wasn’t bad enough, a number of recessionary indicators were flashing with increasing alarm yesterday, and the 2s10s Treasury yield curve flattened by another -5.0bps to -57.3bps. That’s the most inverted that curve has been since 1982, and bear in mind that it’s inverted prior to every single one of the last 10 US recessions, so a concerning sign if you value the yield curve as a recession indicator. That push even deeper into inversion territory came as the 2yr yield rose by +9.4bps yesterday, hitting a fresh post-2007 high of 4.71%. In the interests of balance however, we should point out that the Fed’s preferred yield curve (the 18m forward 3m yield minus the spot 3m yield) did steepen +11.9bps yesterday to 46.0bps, moving it yet further away from its near-inversion last week, when it closed at a new low for this cycle of 3.2bps.

When it comes to expectations of future rate hikes, the big event today will be the US jobs report for October, which will feed into the debate as to whether the Fed might slow down their pace of hikes at the December meeting. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are forecasting that nonfarm payrolls will have risen by +225k, which they think should be enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 3.5%. Nevertheless, there’s still next month’s jobs report as well as a further two CPI prints ahead of the next Fed meeting, so there’s plenty to digest before they have to make that decision.

Here in the UK, the focus was also on central banks yesterday after the BoE delivered a 75bps rate hike as expected, thus taking Bank Rate to a post-2008 high of 3%. But even though it was the biggest single hike in decades, several details leaned in a dovish direction. First, although a majority of the MPC said that further hikes might be required if the economy progressed in line with their forecasts, they also said it would be “to a peak lower than priced into financial markets.” That was evident from their forecasts too, since their inflation projection which was conditioned on market interest rate expectations showed inflation falling below the 2% target in a couple of years. Separately, two of the nine MPC members were also in favour of a smaller hike, with one wanting a 50bps move and another preferring a 25bps move.

Those dovish implications meant that sterling fell significantly in response, and in fact was the worst-performing G10 currency with a -2.04% decline against the dollar. That said, sterling’s weakness did support the FTSE 100 (+0.62%), which was the only major equity index to close in positive territory yesterday. In his recap (link here), our UK economist sticks to his view that Bank Rate will peak at 4.5%, but sees more downside risks to the call as a result of the more dovish message from yesterday. In the meantime, the focus on the UK economy will now shift to the fiscal side, as the government’s fiscal statement is set to be delivered on November 17.

When it came to gilts, the 10yr yield was up +11.1bps on the day, but that was basically in line with other European countries, with yields on 10yr bunds (+10.9bps), OATs (+10.0bps) and BTPs (+12.2bps) seeing similar increases. That followed remarks from an array of ECB officials, including President Lagarde who said that there was “still a way to go” when it came to raising rates. As with the Fed, market expectations of future ECB interest rates have ticked up again over recent days, but unlike the Fed they remain beneath their recent highs over the last month or so.

Overnight in Asia we’ve seen a massive surge in Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks, driven by continued speculation about a potential shift in their zero-Covid strategy. That’s helped the Hang Seng to gain a massive +7.46% on the day, whilst the CSI 300 (+3.53%) and the Shanghai Comp (+2.76%) have also seen sizeable gains. And unlike the US, tech stocks are surging even faster, with the Hang Seng Tech index up by +10.87%. Elsewhere in Asia we haven’t seen a surge on that scale, with the Kospi up by a more modest +0.61%, and the Nikkei (-1.81%) experiencing a decent loss as it reopens following the holiday during the previous session. Looking forward however, equity futures in the US and Europe are pointing higher this morning, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.25%.

Overnight we’ve also heard from the Reserve Bank of Australia, who released their quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy and upgraded their forecasts for inflation, which they now see peaking at 8% this year. Meanwhile on the data front, Japan’s composite and services PMI both hit a 4-month high in October, climbing to 51.8 and 53.2 respectively.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the US weekly initial jobless claimed fell to 217k (vs. 220k expected) over the week ending October 29, and the 4-week moving average also ticked lower for the first time in 5 weeks. However, the ISM services came in somewhat beneath expectations, and the 54.4 reading (vs. 55.3 expected) was the worst month since May 2020 during the pandemic contraction, and the employment component also moved back into contractionary territory with a 49.1 reading. Finally, the Euro Area unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in September, which is the lowest since the formation of the single currency, since the August number was revised up a tenth to show a 6.7% reading.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for October. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s data on German factory orders, French industrial production and Euro Area PPI for September, alongside the final services and composite PMIs for October. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, Bundesbank President Nagel, the Fed’s Collins and BoE Chief Economist Pill.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Sentiment firmer pre-NFP amid further rumours regarding China’s COVID policy – Newsquawk US Market Open

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FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 06:49 AM

  • European bourses are firmer across the board as the complex benefits from further rumours around an easing of China’s COVID policy, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.4%
  • Stateside, futures are firmer across the board with magnitudes a touch more contained vs Europe pre-NFP
  • DXY has pulled back from overnight peaks, where it tested but failed to attain 113.00, Antipodeans & Yuan outperform
  • Core fixed benchmarks are little changed overall with USTs essentially flat while Gilts lag post-Pill
  • Commodities are bolstered amid the USD’s pullback and on further reopening rumours re. China
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, Speech from Fed’s Collins.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

View the full premarket movers and news report.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are firmer across the board as the complex benefits from further rumours around an easing of China’s COVID policy, with a presser on prevention due on the weekend; Euro Stoxx 50 +1.4%.
  • Additional upside occurred in wake of upward revisions to the regions PMI metrics; however, the magnitude of this was limited as internal commentary remained downbeat and the metrics are still in contractionary territory.
  • Stateside, futures are firmer across the board with magnitudes a touch more contained vs Europe, ES +0.7%, as the region awaits the NFP print.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY has pulled back from overnight peaks, where it tested but failed to attain 113.00; a pullback in the context of constructive overall sentiment amid China-COVID rumours/reports and upward PMI revisions.
  • Antipodeans outperform given base metal action on the mentioned COVID rumours, a narrative which has also buoyed the Yuan which itself was subject to a firmer-than-expected Yuan midpoint.
  • EUR/USD has been unable to reclaim 0.98 despite favorable PMI revisions and the USD’s pullback; note, substantial OpEx lies between 0.9790-0.9800.
  • Cable was unreactive to the BoE’s Chief Economist reiterating lines from Bailey in pushing-back on market pricing; nonetheless, the Pound has eclipsed 1.12 and is among the outperformers following Thursday’s underperformance.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 0.9650 (260M), 0.9750 (615M), 0.9790-00 (1.62BLN), 0.9825-35 (902M), 0.9870 (254M), 0.9900 (1.28BLN), 0.9925-30 (348M), 0.9950-55 (487M), 1.0000 (2.48BLN) USD/JPY: 146.00 (607M), 147.00 (1.05BLN), 148.00 (680M), 149.00 (583M), 150.00 (940M)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Core benchmarks are little changed overall with USTs essentially flat on the session and yields holding within recent parameters as we count down to the NFP print.
  • Bund has trimmed initial 50 tick upside following remarks from ECB’s Lagarde which incl. hawkish undertones on the wage front, German benchmark now little changed overall.
  • In contrast, Gilts continue to slip and are lower by 50 ticks around 101.50 post-Pill highlighting that recent turmoil has not distracted them from their QT goals.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Commodities are bolstered amid the USD’s pullback and on further reopening rumours re. China
  • WTI and Brent front-month futures are firmer on the day with the former just under USD 91/bbl and the latter around USD 97.00/bbl.
  • Saudi Arabia set December Arab light crude OSP to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 5.45/bbl, while it set OSP to NW Europe at ICE Brent + USD 1.70/bbl and to the US at ASCI + USD 6.35/bbl.
  • MMG said it has been forced to commence a progressive slow-down of its Las Bambas operation amid disruptions due to blockades by communities, while it continues to work with the government of Peru and communities along the site’s logistic route.
  • US and allies have reached agreement on which sales of Russian oil will be subject to a price cap, WSJ reports; “Each load of seaborne Russian oil will only be subject to the price cap when it is first sold to a buyer on land, meaning resales of the same oil won’t have to fall under the cap”, according to WSJ sources.
  • Spot gold has struggled to surpass the USD 1650/oz mark where its 21-DMA lies just above at USD 1651.7/oz, while base metals are deriving broad support on the China/COVID narrative
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • BoE’s Pill says we still think there is more to do on inflation pressures, via CNBC; not for BoE to tell market how to price assets. Thinks lag in transition of monetary policy to activity is about a year. We need to raise bank rate and shrink QT portfolio, recent disturbances have not distracted us from key goal.
  • ECB President Lagarde says we must not let high inflation become entrenched, rate path ahead will look different depending on the contingencies ECB faces. We are likely to see wages ‘catching up’ to some extent with higher inflation.
  • BoE’s Hauser (non-MPC) says we must execute a timely and orderly unwind of the assests accumulated as part of financial stability purchase operations. Need to remain sensitive to and if necessary respond appropriately to still-febrile market conditions.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt is mulling an increase in the headline rate of Capital Gains Tax, according to The Telegraph.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • German Industrial Orders MM (Sep) -4.0% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -2.4%)
  • EU S&P Global Services Final PMI (Oct) 48.6 vs. Exp. 48.2 (Prev. 48.2); Composite Final PMI (Oct) 47.3 vs. Exp. 47.1 (Prev. 47.1)
  • “After a weak third quarter of PMI and official GDP data, the latest survey results for the start of the fourth quarter suggest the eurozone economy is now headed for a winter recession.”
  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Oct) 53.2 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 52.3)

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin has broken out of the last few sessions tight parameters and resides towards the top end of this range just above the USD 20.5k mark.

GEOPOLITICS

  • US officials have no clear timing for when North Korea might conduct a nuclear test and would like to see China and Russia use their leverage on North Korea to head off a nuclear test. Furthermore, the US is prepared to engage directly with North Korea and has sought to communicate with North Korea in private channels and through third parties, while it rejects the notion that the international community should treat North Korea as a nuclear power, according to a senior US administration official.
  • At least 180 North Korean warplanes take off in apparent show of force, via Yonhap; subsequently, South Korean has scrambled around 800 jets.
  • Taiwan Defence Ministry says 12 Chinese air force planes crossed the Taiwanese Strait Median Line on Friday, via Reuters.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks were mixed with Chinese stocks rallying on unverified reopening rumours, although the rest of the region was contained after the wave of central bank rate hikes and ahead of the NFP jobs data.
  • ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in the commodity-related sectors although gains were limited by weakness in defensives and the top-weighted financial sector, while the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy provided little in the way of fresh insight and included a downgrade to growth projections.
  • Nikkei 225 was hit on return from holiday and reacted to the recent FOMC and Powell’s hawkish remarks.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rallied with the Hong Kong benchmark spearheaded by tech and with EV makers boosted following a jump in BYD’s new energy vehicle sales, while sentiment was also boosted as US audit inspectors finished on-site China work ahead of schedule and amid unverified rumours of China reopening.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • US audit inspectors finished on-site China work ahead of schedule, according to Bloomberg.
  • Chinese President Xi met with German Chancellor Scholz and said as big nations with influence, China and Germany should work together all the more in times of change and turmoil to make a greater contribution to world peace and development, according to state media.
  • German Chancellor Scholz said his meeting with Chinese President Xi is at a time of big tension and that the Russian war on Ukraine brings big problems for rule-based order, while they will talk about Europe-China relations and the fight against climate change and world hunger. Scholz added they will also talk about how to develop economic relations and on topics where their perspectives are different.
  • Japan’s government is said to issue JPY 22.8tln in bonds for the extra budget with total issuance for FY22/23 revised upward to a record JPY 62.5tln, according to Reuters.
  • RBA Statement on Monetary Policy said the board expects rates will need to increase further and policy is not on a pre-set path, while they will hike in larger steps or pause if considered necessary. Furthermore, the RBA cut economic growth forecasts in which it sees GDP at 2.9% in December 2022, 1.4% in December 2023 and 1.6% in December 2024, while it lifted the inflation forecast which it sees at 8.0% in December 2022, 4.7% in December 2023 and 3.2% in December 2024.
  • China is working on a plan to scrap COVID flight suspensions, according to Bloomberg.
  • China’s Health Authorities are to hold a presser on targeted COVID prevention on November 5th at 15:00 local time (07:00GMT/03:00ET).

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Retail Trade (Q3) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.4%, Rev. 1.0%)
  • Japanese Services PMI (Oct F) 53.2 (Prelim. 53.0); Composite PMI (Oct F) 51.8 (Prelim. 51.7)

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 72.99 PTS OR 2.43%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 821.65 OR  5.36%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 463.65 OR 1.68%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  0.55%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7.2467 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.2300//    /Oil UP TO 91,36 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 97.79    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

very worrisome!

(zerohedge)

South Korea Scrambles Jets After Detecting 180 N.Korean Warplanes Near Border

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 11:01 AM

The US and South Korea have extended their large-scale aerial war games in response to North Korea’s unprecedented number of missile firings over the last two days, which stands at 27 or more launches, including an ICBM (which some reports said was a failed launch), which sent citizens in some parts of Japan scrambling for bomb shelters amid emergency alert sirens the day prior.

This year’s ‘Vigilant Storm’ US-Korea drills are the largest ever, involving almost 100 American warplanes and 140 of South Korea’s, and Pyongyang says it has been responding to this provocation and threat to its security. Amid these drills being extended, the north has answered amid the growing tit-for-tat dangerous muscle flexing, launching some 180 flights near the shared Military Demarcation Line which marks the boundary between the rival countries. Jet fighters from US and South Korea air forces, file image: Yonhap/Reuters

South Korea responded to picking up on the large wave of enemy aircraft across from its border by scrambling 80 of its own, including F-35A stealth fighters.

According to details of Friday’s show of force on either side of the dividing line in CBS News, based on South Korean media

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the North Korean warplanes were detected in various areas inland and along the country’s eastern and western coasts but didn’t come particularly close to the inter-Korean border.

None of the planes breached the South Korean military’s virtual “tactical action” line 12 to 31 miles north of the Koreas’ land and sea boundaries for monitoring purposes to give the South enough time to respond to provocations or attacks.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said while announcing the extension of joint drills on agreement by South Korea’s Defense Minister Jong-Sup Lee that “at this time of heightened tension, our alliance is ironclad.”

We’re returning to large scale exercises to strengthen our combined readiness and our ability to fight tonight if necessary,” he added. 

As for the South Korean defense chief, he warned amid growing concerns Pyongyang could be preparing for a nuclear test, the first in five years, that “any nuclear attack by the DPRK, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons, is unacceptable.” Jong-Sup Lee added that such unthinkable escalation would lead to “the end of the Kim Jong un regime.”

Pyongyang has slammed the Vigilant Storm drills to its south “an aggressive and provocative military drill targeting” North Korea, and has warned both Seoul and Washington will “pay the most horrible price in history” if it persists with the provocations. 

end

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/RUSSIA

END

3c CHINA

CHINA/RUSSIA/IRAN

China, Russia and Iran seek to influence the 2022 midterm elections according to cybersecurity chief

(Thornebrook/EpochTimes)

China, Russia, And Iran Seek To Influence 2022 Midterm Elections: Cybersecurity Chief

THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 07:40 PM

Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

State actors that include China’s communist regime are seeking to influence next week’s U.S. midterm elections, according to the nation’s cybersecurity chief.Jen Easterly, the director of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, answers questions during her confirmation hearing in Washington on June 10, 2021. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

China, Iran, and Russia may all seek to influence or otherwise interfere with U.S. democratic processes, according to Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Director Jen Easterly.

“We are concerned about Russia and Iran and China trying to influence our elections,” Easterly said during a Nov. 1 talk at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

It’s a significant concern when you think about these adversaries who are trying to sow discord, that are trying to break us apart as Americans and are trying to undermine integrity in our elections.”

Easterly’s comments follow closely behind several revelations in recent months regarding how hostile foreign powers are attempting to undermine stability in the United States.

Meta Platforms, which owns Facebook and Instagram, said in September that it had disrupted several Chinese and Russian influence operations. Those operations took place on Facebook, Instagram, and Meta competitor Twitter, and appeared largely aimed at increasing political polarization among Americans by spreading false and inflammatory posts about controversial topics including race, abortion, fascism, and gun control.

Likewise, a report published in October by intelligence firm Recorded Future found that China-based actors were attempting to influence the Nov. 8 midterm elections by undermining confidence in lawmakers who were critical of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and in the U.S. system of government itself.

Yet another report by nonprofit Global Witness and the Cybersecurity for Democracy (C4D) team at New York University asserted that social media giant TikTok failed to prevent 90 percent of political ads with misleading or blatantly false election information, even as the company claims it doesn’t allow any political advertising.

Easterly said the need to maintain strong cyber defenses against such operations is critical, and that the United States would need to be prepared for activity designed to cause instability.

“It’s not the time to put our shields down,” she said. “We need to be prepared for potential disruptive [and] destructive activity.”

That’s what foreign adversaries want. They want to have disruption. They want to sow discord. They love the partisan rancor. They love the tearing apart of America.”

Easterly, who served 20 years as a U.S. Army officer, said that there were no credible or specific threats to election infrastructure now, but the types of influence operations seen recently could contribute to the growing number of other threats being made against Americans attempting to conduct the elections.

From physical intimidation to threats to misinformation, Easterly said the threat environment facing everyday Americans who work at the polls is more complex than ever.

To that end, Easterly said that securing elections is a nonpartisan activity, and Americans need to work together to protect the American way of life by increasing election literacy and ensuring safe and resilient conditions for poll workers.

Read more here…

end

CHINA

China’s economy is faltering and thus natural gas as consumption is set to fall

(Kennedy/OilPrice.com)

China’s Natural Gas Consumption Set To Fall For First Time In Two Decades

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 01:00 PM

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Natural gas consumption in China may fall this year for the first time in two decades, albeit moderately, because of the slowdown in the economy, Reuters has reported, citing officials from state energy companies.

According to a researcher with CNOOC, gas demand in the country could see a one percent decline this year, to 363.6 billion cubic meters. China is also expected to cede to Japan the title of the world’s biggest LNG importer as lockdowns have sapped demand for energy this year.

Winter demand for gas is also seen as weaker than usual, at between 168 billion and 190 billion cubic meters.

However, this does not mean that all gas imports will decline, according to the report. Imports of liquefied natural gas, which is more expensive, are already on the decline but pipeline gas imports from Russia and the Central Asian republics are on the rise.

“Our winter supply policy is stabilizing piped gas imports from Central Asia, boosting volumes from Russia, and increasing domestic production,” a PetroChina official told Reuters.

The higher imports will be used both directly and to fill storage, which currently equals just 7 percent of China’s total demand or 26 billion cubic meters. The gas from storage will be used at the height of heating season this winter if necessary.

Domestic gas production is also rising as the government pushes the energy industry to reduce its reliance on imported commodities. Despite these efforts, however, imports have been on the rise over the last decade, as has local gas production, Reuters’ John Kemp noted in a recent column.

Domestic production of natural gas has been rising at an annual rate of some seven percent over the past decade, turning into the world’s fourth-largest gas producer. Yet demand rose by a rate of around 11 percent during the same period.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

GERMANY/DR MICHAEL HUDSON/HUDSON INSTITUTE

The renowned Dr Michael Hudson on today’s West vs East,

a must read…

(Michael Hudson)

Hudson: Germany’s Position In America’s New World Order

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Michael Hudson,

Germany has become an economic satellite of America’s New Cold War with Russia, China and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany and other NATO countries have been told to impose trade and investment sanctions upon themselves that will outlast today’s proxy war in Ukraine. U.S. President Biden and his State Department spokesmen have explained that Ukraine is just the opening arena in a much broader dynamic that is splitting the world into two opposing sets of economic alliances. This global fracture promises to be a ten- or twenty-year struggle to determine whether the world economy will be a unipolar U.S.-centered dollarized economy, or a multipolar, multi-currency world centered on the Eurasian heartland with mixed public/private economies.

President Biden has characterized this split as being between democracies and autocracies. The terminology is typical Orwellian double-speak. By “democracies” he means the U.S. and allied Western financial oligarchies. Their aim is to shift economic planning out of the hands of elected governments to Wall Street and other financial centers under U.S. control. U.S. diplomats use the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to demand privatization of the world’s infrastructure and dependency on U.S. technology, oil and food exports.

By “autocracy,” Biden means countries resisting this financialization and privatization takeover. In practice, U.S. rhetoric means promoting its own economic growth and living standards, keeping finance and banking as public utilities. What basically is at issue is whether economies will be planned by banking centers to create financial wealth – by privatizing basic infrastructure, public utilities and social services such as health care into monopolies – or by raising living standards and prosperity by keeping banking and money creation, public health, education, transportation and communications in public hands.

The country suffering the most “collateral damage” in this global fracture is Germany. As Europe’s most advanced industrial economy, German steel, chemicals, machinery, automotives and other consumer goods are the most highly dependent on imports of Russian gas, oil and metals from aluminum to titanium and palladium. Yet despite two Nord Stream pipelines built to provide Germany with low-priced energy, Germany has been told to cut itself off from Russian gas and de-industrialize. This means the end of its economic preeminence. The key to GDP growth in Germany, as in other countries, is energy consumption per worker.

These anti-Russian sanctions make today’s New Cold War inherently anti-German. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has said that Germany should replace low-priced Russian pipeline gas with high-priced U.S. LNG gas. To import this gas, Germany will have to spend over $5 billion quickly to build port capacity to handle LNG tankers. The effect will be to make German industry uncompetitive. Bankruptcies will spread, employment will decline, and Germany’s pro-NATO leaders will impose a chronic depression and falling living standards.

Most political theory assumes that nations will act in their own self-interest. Otherwise they are satellite countries, not in control of their own fate. Germany is subordinating its industry and living standards to the dictates of U.S. diplomacy and the self-interest of America’s oil and gas sector. It is doing this voluntarily – not because of military force but out of an ideological belief that the world economy should be run by U.S. Cold War planners.

Sometimes it is easier to understand today’s dynamics by stepping away from one’s own immediate situation to look at historical examples of the kind of political diplomacy that one sees splitting today’s world. The closest parallel that I can find is medieval Europe’s fight by the Roman papacy against German kings – the Holy Roman Emperors – in the 13th century. That conflict split Europe along lines much like those of today. A series of popes excommunicated Frederick II and other German kings and mobilized allies to fight against Germany and its control of southern Italy and Sicily.

Western antagonism against the East was incited by the Crusades (1095-1291), just as today’s Cold War is a crusade against economies threatening U.S. dominance of the world. The medieval war against Germany was over who should control Christian Europe: the papacy, with the popes becoming worldly emperors, or secular rulers of individual kingdoms by claiming the power to morally legitimize and accept them.

Medieval Europe’s analogue to America’s New Cold War against China and Russia was the Great Schism in 1054. Demanding unipolar control over Christendom, Leo IX excommunicated the Orthodox Church centered in Constantinople and the entire Christian population that belonged to it. A single bishopric, Rome, cut itself off from the entire Christian world of the time, including the ancient Patriarchates of Alexandria, Antioch, Constantinople and Jerusalem.

This break-away created a political problem for Roman diplomacy: How to hold all the Western European kingdoms under its control and claim the right for financial subsidy from them. That aim required subordinating secular kings to papal religious authority. In 1074, Gregory VII, Hildebrand, announced 27 Papal Dictates outlining the administrative strategy for Rome to lock in its power over Europe.

These papal demands are strikingly parallel to today’s U.S. diplomacy. In both cases military and worldly interests require a sublimation in the form of an ideological crusading spirit to cement the sense of solidarity that any system of imperial domination requires. The logic is timeless and universal.

The Papal Dictates were radical in two major ways. First of all, they elevated the bishop of Rome above all other bishoprics, creating the modern papacy. Clause 3 ruled that the pope alone had the power of investiture to appoint bishops or to depose or reinstate them. Reinforcing this, Clause 25 gave the right of appointing (or deposing) bishops to the pope, not to local rulers. And Clause 12 gave the pope the right to depose emperors, following Clause 9, obliging “all princes to kiss the feet of the Pope alone” in order to be deemed legitimate rulers.

Likewise today, U.S. diplomats claim the right to name who should be recognized as a nation’s head of state. In 1953 they overthrew Iran’s elected leader and replaced him with the Shah’s military dictatorship. That principle gives U.S. diplomats the right to sponsor “color revolutions” for regime-change, such as their sponsorship of Latin American military dictatorships creating client oligarchies to serve U.S. corporate and financial interests. The 2014 coup in Ukraine is just the latest exercise of this U.S. right to appoint and depose leaders.

More recently, U.S. diplomats have appointed Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s head of state instead of its elected president, and turned over that country’s gold reserves to him. President Biden has insisted that Russia must remove Putin and put a more pro-U.S. leader in his place. This “right” to select heads of state has been a constant in U.S. policy spanning its long history of political meddling in European political affairs since World War II.

The second radical feature of the Papal Dictates was their exclusion of all ideology and policy that diverged from papal authority. Clause 2 stated that only the Pope could be called “Universal.” Any disagreement was, by definition, heretical. Clause 17 stated that no chapter or book could be considered canonical without papal authority.

A similar demand as is being made by today’s U.S.-sponsored ideology of financialized and privatized “free markets,” meaning deregulation of government power to shape economies in interests other than those of U.S.-centered financial and corporate elites.

The demand for universality in today’s New Cold War is cloaked in the language of “democracy.” But the definition of democracy in today’s New Cold War is simply “pro-U.S.,” and specifically neoliberal privatization as the U.S.-sponsored new economic religion. This ethic is deemed to be “science,” as in the quasi-Nobel Memorial Prize in the Economic Sciences. That is the modern euphemism for neoliberal Chicago-School junk economics, IMF austerity programs and tax favoritism for the wealthy.

The Papal Dictates spelt out a strategy for locking in unipolar control over secular realms. They asserted papal precedence over worldly kings, above all over Germany’s Holy Roman Emperors. Clause 26 gave popes authority to excommunicate whomever was “not at peace with the Roman Church.” That principle implied the concluding Claus 27, enabling the pope to “absolve subjects from their fealty to wicked men.” This encouraged the medieval version of “color revolutions” to bring about regime change.

What united countries in this solidarity was an antagonism to societies not subject to centralized papal control – the Moslem Infidels who held Jerusalem, and also the French Cathars and anyone else deemed to be a heretic. Above all there was hostility toward regions strong enough to resist papal demands for financial tribute.

Today’s counterpart to such ideological power to excommunicate heretics resisting demands for obedience and tribute would be the World Trade Organization, World Bank and IMF dictating economic practices and setting “conditionalities” for all member governments to follow, on pain of U.S. sanctions – the modern version of excommunication of countries not accepting U.S. suzerainty. Clause 19 of the Dictates ruled that the pope could be judged by no one – just as today, the United States refuses to subject its actions to rulings by the World Court. Likewise today, U.S. dictates via NATO and other arms (such as the IMF and World Bank) are expected to be followed by U.S. satellites without question. As Margaret Thatcher said of her neoliberal privatization that destroyed Britain’s public sector, There Is No Alternative (TINA).

My point is to emphasize the analogy with today’s U.S. sanctions against all countries not following its own diplomatic demands. Trade sanctions are a form of excommunication. They reverse the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia’s principle that made each country and its rulers independent from foreign meddling. President Biden characterizes U.S. interference as ensuring his new antithesis between “democracy” and “autocracy.” By democracy he means a client oligarchy under U.S. control, creating financial wealth by reducing living standards for labor, as opposed to mixed public/private economies aiming at promoting living standards and social solidarity.

As I have mentioned, by excommunicating the Orthodox Church centered in Constantinople and its Christian population, the Great Schism created the fateful religious dividing line that has split “the West” from the East for the past millennium. That split was so important that Vladimir Putin cited it as part of his September 30, 2022 speech describing today’s break away from the U.S. and NATO centered Western economies.

The 12th and 13th centuries saw Norman conquerors of England, France and other countries, along with German kings, protest repeatedly, be excommunicated repeatedly, yet ultimately succumb to papal demands. It took until the 16th century for Martin Luther, Zwingli and Henry VIII finally to create a Protestant alternative to Rome, making Western Christianity multi-polar.

Why did it take so long? The answer is that the Crusades provided an organizing ideological gravity. That was the medieval analogy to today’s New Cold War between East and West. The Crusades created a spiritual focus of “moral reform” by mobilizing hatred against “the other” – the Moslem East, and increasingly Jews and European Christian dissenters from Roman control. That was the medieval analogy to today’s neoliberal “free market” doctrines of America’s financial oligarchy and its hostility to China, Russia and other nations not following that ideology. In today’s New Cold War, the West’s neoliberal ideology is mobilizing fear and hatred of “the other,” demonizing nations that follow an independent path as “autocratic regimes.” Outright racism is fostered toward entire peoples, as evident in the Russophobia and Cancel Culture currently sweeping the West.

Just as Western Christianity’s multi-polar transition required the 16th century’s Protestant alternative, the Eurasian heartland’s break from the bank-centered NATO West must be consolidated by an alternative ideology regarding how to organize mixed public/private economies and their financial infrastructure.

Medieval churches in the West were drained of their alms and endowments to contribute Peter’s Pence and other subsidy to the papacy for the wars it was fighting against rulers who resisted papal demands. England played the role of major victim that Germany plays today. Enormous English taxes were levied ostensibly to finance the Crusades were diverted to fight Frederick II, Conrad and Manfred in Sicily. That diversion was financed by papal bankers from northern Italy (Lombards and Cahorsins), and became royal debts passed down throughout the economy. England’s barons waged a civil war against Henry II in the 1260s, ending his complicity in sacrificing the economy to papal demands.

What ended the papacy’s power over other countries was the ending of its war against the East. When the Crusaders lost Acre, the capital of Jerusalem in 1291, the papacy lost its control over Christendom. There was no more “evil” to fight, and the “good” had lost its center of gravity and coherence. In 1307, France’s Philip IV (“the Fair”) seized the Church’s great military banking order’s wealth, that of the Templars in the Paris Temple. Other rulers also nationalized the Templars, and monetary systems were taken out of the hands of the Church. Without a common enemy defined and mobilized by Rome, the papacy lost its unipolar ideological power over Western Europe.

The modern equivalent to the rejection of the Templars and papal finance would be for countries to withdraw from America’s New Cold War. They would reject the dollar standard and the U.S. banking and financial system. that is happening as more and more countries see Russia and China not as adversaries but as presenting great opportunities for mutual economic advantage.

The broken promise of mutual gain between Germany and Russia

The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 promised an end to the Cold War. The Warsaw Pact was disbanded, Germany was reunified, and American diplomats promised an end to NATO, because a Soviet military threat no longer existed. Russian leaders indulged in the hope that, as President Putin expressed it, a new pan-European economy would be created from Lisbon to Vladivostok. Germany in particular was expected to take the lead in investing in Russia and restructuring its industry along more efficient lines. Russia would pay for this technology transfer by supplying gas and oil, along with nickel, aluminum, titanium and palladium.

There was no anticipation that NATO would be expanded to threaten a New Cold War, much less that it would back Ukraine, recognized as the most corrupt kleptocracy in Europe, into being led by extremist parties identifying themselves by German Nazi insignia.

How do we explain why the seemingly logical potential of mutual gain between Western Europe and the former Soviet economies turned into a sponsorship of oligarchic kleptocracies. The Nord Stream pipeline’s destruction capsulizes the dynamics in a nutshell. For almost a decade a constant U.S. demand has been for Germany to reject its reliance on Russian energy. These demands were opposed by Gerhardt Schroeder, Angela Merkel and German business leaders. They pointed to the obvious economic logic of mutual trade of German manufactures for Russian raw materials.

The U.S. problem was how to stop Germany from approving the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Victoria Nuland, President Biden and other U.S. diplomats demonstrated that the way to do that was to incite a hatred of Russia. The New Cold War was framed as a new Crusade. That was how George W. Bush had described America’s attack on Iraq to seize its oil wells. The U.S.-sponsored 2014 coup created a puppet Ukrainian regime that has spent eight years bombing of the Russian-speaking Eastern provinces. NATO thus incited a Russian military response. The incitement was successful, and the desired Russian response was duly labeled an unprovoked atrocity. Its protection of civilians was depicted in the NATO-sponsored media as being so offensive as to deserve the trade and investment sanctions that have been imposed since February. That is what a Crusade means.

The result is that the world is splitting in two camps: the U.S.-centered NATO, and the emerging Eurasian coalition. One byproduct of this dynamic has been to leave Germany unable to pursue the economic policy of mutually advantageous trade and investment relations with Russia (and perhaps also China). German Chancellor Olaf Sholz is going to China this week to demand that it dismantle is public sector and stops subsidizing its economy, or else Germany and Europe will impose sanctions on trade with China. There is no way that China could meet this ridiculous demand, any more than the United States or any other industrial economy would stop subsidizing their own computer-chip and other key sectors. The German Council on Foreign Relations is a neoliberal “libertarian” arm of NATO demanding German de-industrialization and dependency on the United States for its trade, excluding China, Russia and their allies. This promises to be the final nail in Germany’s economic coffin.

Another byproduct of America’s New Cold War has been to end any international plan to stem global warming. A keystone of U.S. economic diplomacy is for its oil companies and those of its NATO allies to control the world’s oil and gas supply – that is, to reduce dependence on carbon-based fuels. That is what the NATO war in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan and Ukraine was about. It is not as abstract as “Democracies vs. Autocracies.” It is about the U.S. ability to harm other countries by disrupting their access to energy and other basic needs.

Without the New Cold War’s “good vs. evil” narrative, U.S. sanctions will lose their raison d’etre in this U.S. attack on environmental protection, and on mutual trade between Western Europe and Russia and China. That is the context for today’s fight in Ukraine, which is to be merely the first step in the anticipated 20 year fight by the US to prevent the world from becoming multipolar. This process, will lock Germany and Europe into dependence on the U.S. supplies of LNG.

The trick is to try and convince Germany that it is dependent on the United States for its military security. What Germany really needs protection from is the U.S. war against China and Russia that is marginalizing and “Ukrainianizing” Europe.

There have been no calls by Western governments for a negotiated end to this war, because no war has been declared in Ukraine. The United States does not declare war anywhere, because that would require a Congressional declaration under the U.S. Constitution. So U.S. and NATO armies bomb, organize color revolutions, meddle in domestic politics (rendering the 1648 Westphalia agreements obsolete), and impose the sanctions that are tearing Germany and its European neighbors apart.

How can negotiations “end” a war that either has no declaration of war, and is a long-term strategy of total unipolar world domination?

The answer is that no ending can come until an alternative to the present U.S.-centered set of international institutions is replaced. That requires the creation of new institutions reflecting an alternative to the neoliberal bank-centered view that economies should be privatized with central planning by financial centers. Rosa Luxemburg characterized the choice as being between socialism and barbarism. I have sketched out the political dynamics of an alternative in my recent book, The Destiny of Civilization.

*  *  *

This paper was presented on November 1, 2022. on the German e-site BraveNewEurope.

END

NETHERLANDS/CHINA

No permission has ever been granted for these illegal Chinese police stations,, as China just did it.  And they have opened these stations in many countries, including Canada, the USA, South America and Europe. Now the Netherlands orders the closure of two of these illegal Chinese police stations

(Hong/EpochTimes)

Netherlands Orders Closure Of Two Illegal Chinese Police Stations

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Mary Hong via The Epoch Times,

The Netherlands demanded the closure of two illegal Chinese police “service stations” in the country.

On Nov. 2, Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wopke Hoekstra, posted on Twitter that the ministry has informed the Chinese ambassador that the stations must close immediately.

Human rights NGO, Safeguard Defenders, revealed in its September report that China had set up at least 38 Chinese police “service stations” in dozens of countries across five continents.

In the Netherlands, such stations were found in both Amsterdam and Rotterdam.

According to Hoekstra, no permission has been requested from the Netherlands for the setup of either station. “The Netherlands has asked the Chinese ambassador for full clarification … conducts research into the stations in order to find out their precise activities,” said Hoekstra.

In responding to the order from the Netherlands, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian insisted that the stations were run by local volunteers from the Chinese community, not police from China.

Overseas Chinese police “Service Stations,” or “110 Overseas,” are found in dozens of countries across five continents. (Courtesy of Safeguarddefenders)

Transnational Repression

Earlier, the Chinese spokesperson Wang Wenbin responded to the allegation of the overseas police service stations on Oct. 26.

He claimed those were service centers and the purpose is “to help overseas Chinese nationals in need access the platform to have their driving licenses renewed and receive physical examinations.”

Wang Jingyu, a Chinese dissident in Rotterdam, disagreed with Wang’s claim.

Jingyu said, “I have solid and clear evidence to prove it’s a Chinese overseas police station in Rotterdam.”

According to Jingyu, a staff member of the Chinese police service station in Rotterdam has been calling him with an official telephone number dozens of times a day, “He wanted me to turn myself in, to go back to China … threatened me with an officially registered Telegram text.”

“It’s exactly opposite from the Chinese foreign ministry’s claim,” he told the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times on Oct. 30.

According to the Safeguard Defenders’ report, the overseas policing operation was associated with a Beijing campaign to bring Chinese nationals back to China for fraud and telecommunication fraud investigations.

Previously, Chinese media claimed that 230,000 fraud suspects were successfully “persuaded to return” to China by the overseas police between April 2021 and July 2022.

However, the Safeguard Defenders’ report also indicated that those who were successfully persuaded claimed that “most involved dissidents or individuals that had fled religious and/or ethnic persecution.”

After the exposure of the illegal Chinese police service stations worldwide, the Irish government was the first to order the closure of a Chinese overseas police station.

END

AUSTRIA

Austria looks to ban oil and coal heater by next year

Kern/OilPrice.com

Austria Looks To Ban Oil And Coal Heaters From 2023

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 06:30 AM

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com

Austria’s government is looking to ban the use of new fossil fuel heaters as of next year and replace very old oil and coal heaters with climate-friendly options by 2025, Euractiv reports.

Austria, like the other EU countries, aims to cut its reliance on Russian gas as soon as possible. The government says that abandoning Russian gas should happen simultaneously with adopting renewable heat options.  

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Austria received around 80% of the natural gas it consumed from Russia. As of August, this high dependence on Russian gas flows had dropped to below 50%, the government said.   

The ban on new fossil fuel heaters, however, would need the approval of at least two-thirds of the Austrian Parliament because the draft bill would require amendments to the constitution, Euractiv’s Nikolaus Kurmayer notes.

“The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has shown how vulnerable our energy supply is. The answer to that can only be ‘get rid of Russian gas’,” Austria’s Energy and Climate Minister Leonore Gewessler said on Wednesday. 

With the Renewable Heat Act (EWG), Austria is now taking another big step on this path, Gewessler added.

Under the new act, gas heaters cannot be installed in new buildings as of 2023, the minister said, adding that by 2040, Austria would switch all heaters in the country to climate-friendly alternatives, getting rid of oil and gas boilers, and moving to use heat pumps, district heating, or pellets.

Austria will support the proposed heaters switch program by making available around $1.95 billion (2 billion euros) by 2026, the minister said.

The Renewable Heat Act (Erneuerbaren-Wärme-Gesetz, EWG) says that fossil-fuel heating such as coal, oil, and gas heating should be phased out in Austria by 2040.

Presenting the initial draft of the bill, minister Gewessler said earlier this year that heating currently accounts for around one-quarter of Austria’s gas consumption.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA//FINLAND

Russia correctly threatens Norway with “final destruction” if they place nuclear weapons on their soil facing Russia

(zerohedge)

Russia Threatens Norway With “Final Destruction” Of Relations

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Russia has issued new warnings and threats against Norway, a founding member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, for its role in expanding NATO operations in the Arctic region.

“Oslo is now among the most active supporters of NATO’s involvement in the Arctic,” Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Wednesday. “We consider such developments near Russian borders as Oslo’s deliberate pursuit of a destructive course toward escalation of tensions in the Euro-Arctic region and the final destruction of Russian-Norwegian relations.”

Zakharova warned additionally that any future “unfriendly actions will be followed by a timely and adequate response.” The warning comes as Norwegian media and politicians are caught up in denouncing alleged Russian spy plots.Image: Deutsche Welle

On Monday the Norwegian government grabbed international headlines by issuing a rare ‘high state of alert’ order for its military, specifically citing Russia’s expanding military operations in Ukraine.

As The Guardian wrote, “Norway is putting its military on a raised level of alert, moving more personnel on to operational duties and enhancing the role of a rapid mobilization force in response to the war in Ukraine – although the prime minister said there was no reason to believe Russia intended to invade.”

“This is the most severe security situation in several decades,” Norway’s prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre told a news briefing. But he added the key caveat, “There are no indications that Russia is expanding its warfare to other countries, but the increased tensions make us more exposed to threats, intelligence operations and influence campaigns.”

Interestingly, the raised alert level appears related to ongoing concern over Russian spies potentially compromising sensitive facilities in the country

Several Russian citizens have been detained in Norway in recent weeks, chiefly for being in possession of drones or allegedly photographing subjects covered by a photography ban. Most have since been released.

European nations have heightened security measures around key energy, internet and power infrastructure after underwater explosions ruptured two natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea built to deliver Russian gas to Germany.

…The Russian embassy in Oslo has alleged that authorities there have used drone and ship sightings, as well as incidents involving Russians with cameras, to fuel a “spy mania”.

Tensions with Russia across the Scandinavian region are higher than ever also because of Finland and Sweden’s bids to join NATO. So far it remains that Turkey and Hungary are the final two holdout nations, refusing the fast-track membership, especially as Turkey as accused both Nordic countries of harboring Kurdish “terrorists”. 

As for Norway, the government late last week slapped new sanctions on top Russian officials and companies. This included at least 30 individuals and seven Russian entities. 

“Once again we are acting in concert with the EU to impose sanctions on Russia to maintain pressure on the Russian Government and its supporters,” Minister of Foreign Affairs Anniken Huitfeldt told a last Friday press conference.

END

ISRAEL

Netanyahu and the far right coalition win big and will form that next government in Israel.

(zerohedge)

Netanyahu & Far Right Coalition Win Big, PM Lapid Concedes Election

THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 04:39 PM

It’s official: former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is returning to power after his alliance of far right parties won this week’s elections. 

The Times of Israel confirmed late in the day Thursday: “As the final thousands of votes were being tallied Thursday evening, Prime Minister Yair Lapid called opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu to concede the race and congratulate him on his election victory.”Bloomberg/Getty Images

Bibi’s conservative coalition is expected to take as many as 65 seats in the 120-member Knesset, a clear and sweeping victory. 

“The state of Israel comes before any political consideration,” Lapid announced. “I wish Netanyahu success, for the sake of the people of Israel and the State of Israel.”

Lapid had been caretaker prime minister since June. Four prior gridlocked elections over a period of three-and-a-half years had failed time and again to produce a final government. Netanyahu is expected to take the highest office once again.

For the Likud party chairman, this will likely result in his third stint as prime minister, after the led the country in the position from 1996 to 1999, and then more recently from 2009 to 2021. He’s the longest serving leader in the country’s history, having served for 15 years.Via Haaretz

Fox News has cited former Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations and likely soon-to-be Knesset member in the new government, Danny Danon, as saying countering Iran will top the agenda for the new Netanyahu administration. 

“I think if we will win, if Netanyahu will return to his position as prime minister, we will be able to put the issue of Iran on the front lines and we will expect our colleagues in the U.S. also to address this threat,” Danon said.

Meanwhile, speaking of anti-Iran hawks…

It’s about to feel like 2018 all over again. But we’ll see what Netanyahu’s approach to the White House will look like with Biden at the helm, and fewer neocon Republican allies in high positions in Washington. 

And the new far-right governing coalition’s response to the Ukraine crisis will be interested, at a moment the Ukrainian government is essentially begging for Israeli weapons, especially the Iron Dome anti-air defense system…

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES.

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

As I warned you, Monkey will not go away due to many people lacking immunity due to the vaccines

(Ly/EpochTimes)

Biden Admin Renews Public Health Emergency Over Monkeypox

THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 10:00 PM

Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) under the Biden administration on Wednesday renewed the public health emergency determination for monkeypox.Xavier Becerra, Secretary of Health and Human Services speaks during a press conference at the HHS headquarter in Washington, on June 28, 2022. (Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images)

Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra said in a statement that his decision to renew the public health emergency was “a result of the continued consequences of an outbreak of monkeypox cases across multiple states.” He had consulted with public health officials before renewing the determination.

The Biden administration first declared monkeypox a public health emergency this year on Aug. 4. It would have expired Wednesday, Nov. 2, if it was not renewed.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky previously said the declaration would provide more “access to resources” and will “enable personnel to be deployed to the outbreak” in some areas. The emergency will also “further raise awareness” and encourage testing for monkeypox.

The latest U.S. renewal of the public health emergency comes after the World Health Organization announced that its emergency committee had likewise determined monkeypox as a global health emergency. The determination was made following a meeting of the committee on Oct. 20.

As of Wednesday, the CDC has recorded 77,573 monkeypox cases globally and 38 deaths. It has recorded 28,492 cases of monkeypox in the United States, with the death toll at 8.

Rep. David N. Cicilline (D-R.I.), chair of the LGBTQ+ Equality congressional caucus, praised the renewal of the public health emergency determination, saying it will ensure continued support to address the outbreak.

“Thanks to vaccination efforts across the country, the contraction and spread of MPV has decreased significantly. However, MPV continues to spread and is disproportionately impacting people of color. We must bolster support and resources—including by appropriating sufficient funds—to help these communities and end this outbreak,” Cicilline added.

Read more here…

end

GLOBAL ISSUES//

As indicated in earlier commentaries, global shipping is cratering as we witness declining revenue for giant Maersk

(Greg Miller/FreightWaves)

End Of An Era: Profits Finally Peak For Shipping Giant Maersk

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 05:00 AM

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves

Three months ago, executives of Maersk expected the container shipping market to peak and turn downward sometime in the fourth quarter. Just a few weeks later, they were proven wrong. It peaked sooner.

“Demand for ocean shipping began its decline in August, and this was clearly observed in both rates and volumes,” said Maersk CEO Soren Skou during a quarterly call on Wednesday.

Third-quarter profits marked yet another record high for Maersk — net income was $8.9 billion — but it will be the last hurrah of the boom era. “We have now seen the peak in extraordinary earnings,” said Maersk CFO Patrick Jany. “Halfway through the quarter we began to see the long-expected normalization of freight rates.”

Maersk has lowered its estimate for 2022 global container demand to minus 2% to minus 4%, down from plus 1% to minus 1% in early August. “Clearly, the risks are to the downside going forward,” said Skou.

The world’s second-largest ocean carrier did not lower its full-year earnings guidance, despite current visibility on fourth-quarter bookings.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization came in at $10.9 billion for Q3 2022, handily topping the analyst consensus forecast for $10.1 billion. Guidance for full-year EBITDA was kept unchanged at $37 billion, implying Q4 2022 EBITDA of $6.7 billion.

That means Maersk projects a steep 39% sequential drop in EBITDA from the high-water mark in the third quarter. Even so, projected Q4 2022 EBITDA would still be the sixth-highest quarterly total in the company’s history — and 4.6 times EBITDA in Q4 2019, pre-COVID.

Contract coverage pays off

Maersk has benefited from its focus on annual contracts over spot business. Contracts account for 71% of its volume, spot 29%.

Spot rates in the third quarter fell sharply compared to the second. Yet Maersk’s average Q3 2022 rate (including both contract and spot) came in at $5,046 per forty-foot equivalent unit. That was its highest-ever average and up 1.3% from the second quarter.

The fact that average rates rose quarter-on-quarter despite falling spot rates “demonstrates the value of the our strategy of signing lots of contrast,” said Skou.

Commenting on fears that existing contracts will be renegotiated lower, he said, “I know there’s been a lot of talk about customer contract behavior. But the reality is that the vast majority of our contracts are holding and our contract portfolio has performed as expected.”

The issue is not that rates are being negotiated down mid-contract, it’s that contract volumes are pulling back. “When the customers suffer the effects of the economic decline, volume can’t be conjured out of thin air,” said Skou.

Next year’s contract rates to ‘slide’

In early August, Maersk said it expected average contract rates to increase $1,900 per FEU in full-year 2022 versus 2021. On Wednesday, it lowered that projected increase to $1,700 per FEU.

Jany explained: “In the current environment, we see lower volumes. Those lower volumes are principally in the [trade lanes] that had the higher prices. Therefore, you have a different mix.” This negative contract mix effect, together with falling spot rates, explains Maersk’s projected Q4 EBITDA decline.

Looking to 2023, Asia-U.S. annual contracts generally renew in May, whereas Asia-Europe contracts often renew at the beginning of the year.

“We are back in our annual contract negotiation cycle,” said Jany. “New contracts will be negotiated with current spot rates as a reference. It is prudent to assume that new contracts that go into effect next year will reflect that mechanism. As you can see from the indexes, [spot] rates have come down pretty drastically. So, we would expect a slide in [future] contract rates.”

Managing capacity as demand declines

Shipping lines are reacting to falling demand by removing capacity, seeking to prevent an even more extreme deterioration in rates. Spot market indexes fell sharply in August and September. In recent weeks, spot indexes have shown much lower declines, hinting at a possible stabilization. The Freightos Baltic Daily trans-Pacific actually rose on Tuesday.

According to Skou, “We aim to deploy the capacity that’s needed to serve the customer demand that’s out there — and not more than that. If demand drops, we will take capacity out to the same percentage. As far as the whole market is concerned, obviously every carrier will do what it thinks is right. In both the Pacific and Asia-Europe trades, around 15% of capacity has now come out. And I would expect we will see more capacity adjustments in the coming quarters. At least, that will be our strategy.

“Our strategy is not to gain market share in ocean [shipping],” he continued. “Our strategy is to gain share of our customers’ wallet of logistics spend. We expect to grow [the logistics] side of the business significantly faster than the market, despite the slowdown.”

Strong balance sheet to cushion fallout

Maersk used the unprecedented 2020-2022 shipping boom to heavily bolster its balance sheets. It had $6.9 billion in net cash as of the end of September.

Jany said Maersk has “enough headroom” in its balance sheet “to tackle what could be two to three years of a troubled economic environment,” while still having enough money to “continue to implement our [logistics growth] strategy and take advantage of opportunities.”

Skou said: “No doubt we have a challenging year or years ahead of us. The world faces a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressure that we haven’t seen in quite a number of decades. It gives us very strong comfort that we enter this period with a very strong balance sheet. We are prepared to weather the storm.”

GLOBAL ISSUES:  FOOD INFLATION

end

PAUL ALEXANDER

Open in app or online

Dr, Kulvinder Gill: “Vaccine-doubting doctor Dr. Gill ordered to pay $1M in legal costs after her libel suit quashed”; if I were Dr. Gill, I would tell Canada take your medical license and shove it!

Leave, head elsewhere, leave the vaccine injured, you tried, know that not just I, but we have been discussing with people at CDC, NIH, FDA, Pfizer & Moderna who say many will die in future due to vax

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 4
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

Kulvinder is my friend and I know what she has put into this fight and sacrificed and I am calling on you to support her, don’t leave her in the cold for she fought for your children to protect them from the death shot. We stand with her! Her battle is none of these shots in your healthy child and she stands for the use of early treatment. She is a class act.

SOURCE:

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/vaccine-doubting-doctor-to-pay-1-million-in-legal-costs-libel-suit

end

BOOM! Alberta Premier Danielle Smith leading the way with commonsense and science: “The detrimental effects of masking on the mental health, development and education of children in classroom setting

is well understood, and we must turn the page on what has been an extremely difficult time for children, along with their parents & teachers,” Smith wrote in a statement released Oct. 29. “No masks”

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 4
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at a press conference after members were sworn into cabinet in Edmonton on Oct. 24, 2022. (The Canadian Press/Jason Franson)

Alberta Premier Says Province Won’t Permit Any Further Mask Mandates for K-12 Students

SOURCE:

end

VACCINE IMPACT

Is a False Flag Iranian Attack on Saudi Oil being Planned to Blame an Increase in Oil Prices?

November 3, 2022 10:40 pm

From the Korean Peninsula, to the Ukraine borders, to Taiwan and now the Middle East and many other parts of the globe, it seems that every day now I am reading that war is about to break out. With the U.S. mid-term elections just days away now, it seems that the entire world is on edge. Earlier this week the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia had shared intelligence with the U.S. about an imminent attack on their oil fields by Iran, and earlier today it was reported that a Telegram channel belonging to Iran posted a simulated attack on Saudi Arabia. I lived in Dhahran in Saudi Arabia in the mid-1990s, right next to the ARAMCO oil company, and the U.S. military presence was everywhere. If it is similar today, I can hardly believe that Iran would be foolish enough to start bombing what is basically an outpost of the U.S. military, but who knows. One thing is for certain, Big Oil is profitable again in spite of the Green Agenda. The two largest US energy majors just had blowout quarters, with Exxon posting its strongest quarterly result in the company’s 152-year history including its highest ever net income, while #2 Chevron reported its second-largest profit; the two companies amassed more than $30 billion in combined net income.

Read More..

VACCINE INJURY/SLAY NEWS/

Record Surge of Infections in Children

Robert Hryniak1:13 PM (54 minutes ago)
to

Scary stuff, Childs do not need these shots.

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2022/11/04/record-surge-infections-children.aspx

end

The latest reports from Slay NewsNew Canadian Premier Smeared as ‘Conspiracy Theorist’ for Rejecting WEFNewly elected Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is being smeared by Canadian media as a “conspiracy theorist” over her refusal to comply with the agenda of Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum (WEF).READ MOREKari Lake Gives Perfect Answer to CBS Reporter’s Gotcha QuestionArizona’s Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake shamed a CBS reporter with the perfect answer to a nonsense question about the mother of deceased Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick.READ MORESan Francisco DA Refuses to Release 911 Calls, Police Bodycam Footage from Paul Pelosi AttackSan Francisco’s “woke” District Attorney Brooke Jenkins is refusing to release the 911 dispatch calls and police bodycam footage from the alleged attack of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) husband Paul Pelosi.READ MORECNBC Gives Shepard Smith the Boot, Cancels His ShowFormer Fox News host Shepard Smith got some bad news today after his new network CNBC gave him the boot and canceled his show.READ MOREMuslim American Rebukes Stephen Colbert, Says He Will Vote GOP for First Time EverA Muslim American voter from the swing state of Michigan rebuked Stephen Colbert and the entire Democrat establishment and said he and all of his friends and family are voting Republican for the first time.READ MOREWashington Post: ‘For the Good of the Country, Biden and Harris Should Bow Out of the 2024 Election’Left-wing newspaper The Washington Post has called on Democrat President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris to “bow out of the 2024 election.”READ MOREGermany’s Scholz Calls for Reset in China Relations as CCP Ramps Up ‘Avowals of Marxism-Leninism’Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz is calling for a recent on the way Western nations handle relations with China as the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continues to ramp up “avowals of Marxism-Leninism.”READ MORE‘Fox & Friends’ Crushes Rivals on CNN and MSNBC, Scores Top Cable Morning Show for 19th Consecutive MonthFox News’s hit show “Fox & Friends” has continued to dominate the competition by finishing October as the number one cable morning show for the 19th consecutive month.READ MOREDon Lemon’s New Morning Show Bombs on CNN, Gets Worse Ratings than Show It ReplacedDon Lemon’s new morning show on CNN is bombing in the ratings after its official launch, pulling in even lower viewer numbers than the program it replaced.READ MORERand Paul Puts Biden on Notice, Vows to Block Admin from ‘Colluding’ with Big Tech to ‘Censor Speech’Republican Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has put Joe Biden by vowing to block the Democrat president’s administration from “colluding” with Big Tech to “censor speech.”READ MOREGOP Senate Candidate Dodges Punch from Attacker in New Hampshire before DebateRepublican Senate candidate Don Bolduc dodged a punch from a would-be attacker before his debate with Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) on Wednesday in New Hampshire, according to reports.READ MOREBette Midler Humiliated after Promoting Fake Claims about Kari Lake from Parody WebsiteHollywood star was humiliated on Wednesday after she promoted fake claims about Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake that were taken from a parody website.READ MOREBiden Demands ‘Unity’ Immediately after Demonizing ‘Extreme MAGA Republicans’Democrat President Joe Biden demanded “unity” from Americans during his big speech on Wednesday night, immediately after he demonized “extreme MAGA Republicans.”READ MORE

/MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

Michael Every on the day’s most important events:/Stefan Koopman/Rabobank

Dogs Chasing Their Own Tails

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 08:28 AM

By Stefan Koopman, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Dogs chasing their own tails

The Bank of England was the last in a long line of ‘advanced’ economy central banks to decide on rates. In light of all the volatility over the past two months, the 75 bps hike that lifted the Bank rate to 3.00% wasn’t out of the ordinary, even as it was Britain’s largest in 33 years. In fact, this hike was as dovish a hike this size can be. The central bank pushed back hard against previous market expectations of a 5.25% peak in the policy rates. The actual vote was split 7-1-1 too, with Ms. Dhingra voting for a more modest 50 bps rise and Ms. Tenreyro, the most dovish of the nine, even going for a 25’er. Both flagged recession risks and monetary lags as reasons why.

The central bank almost went as far as to making a mockery of their own conflicted economic forecasts, around which almost the entire the press conference centred. First of all, some £50 billion worth (c. 2% of UK GDP) of Chancellor Hunt’s forthcoming spending cuts and tax increases couldn’t be incorporated, as these will only be detailed on November 17. Secondly, Governor Bailey emphasised they have plugged in an outdated and, in their view, implausibly high forward curve into their model, which is then conditioned to spew out an extremely bearish forecast. If rates rise as high as 5.25%, which was priced only a few weeks ago and sits well above the unobservable-hence-inferred neutral rate of around 1.5%, the economy tanks and inflation follows with a lag.

The president of the ECB seems to have read a different memo. According to Ms. Lagarde, who somehow still doesn’t see a Eurozone contraction as her base case, “a recession wouldn’t be enough to tame inflation”. To which the obvious retort is: if not even a recession can tame inflation, then what the hell can!?

Back to the Bank of England. Its forecasts imply the UK is already in recession, that GDP will fall for eight quarters straight, and that economic activity will not return to its pre-pandemic level before 2026. With demand depressed for years to come, unemployment will almost double and inflation is expected to undershoot the target, falling all the way down to 0.0% in late-2025. Note that even as central bank policies are currently dictated by spot inflation, like dogs chasing their own tails, this is still the relevant policy horizon given Dhingra’s and Tenreyro’s monetary lags.

The alternative forecasts the Bank of England present in its Monetary Policy Report are based on a constant path of Bank rate at 3%, rather than on a volatile market curve. But even then, they see a sharp slowdown in growth and inflation eventually falling to below 1% y/y in late-2025. This can only mean one thing: the central bank believes the British economy is too weak to deal with a policy rate of 3%. Underlying this is a sombre view on the UK’s structural rate of growth. This is a consequence of years of subpar investment, tight labour supply and stubbornly weak productivity growth. The regular reader knows we agree with this view. We also think Chancellor Hunt’s Austerity 2.0 only makes matters worse, in particular if capital spending will be slashed too.

Governor Bailey said the MPC “will not pursue a path that will drive inflation far below target”, even as it “does not intend to keep rates constant either” (have a sip of your coffee and think about the inconsistencies with the central bank’s own modelling) and that his ‘best guess’ of the terminal rate would be closer to the constant rate curve than the current market curve. So, to sum up, Bailey sees a rate of 3% as too low, but one of 4.75% as too high and one of 5.25% as out of the question. But is it really?

This week, there has been a global debate about the current pace of interest rate hikes, the peak at which central banks decide that enough has been done, and the pivot that at some point will follow. The RBA, Norges Bank and the Bank of Canada have all slowed down. Yesterday, the Fed signalled it is looking for a slower pace, but to a higher peak, and for a longer period of time. This is a cue the ECB seemed to have waited for, even though we doubt the data already allow for a slowing of the pace already in December. The Bank of England is instead signalling it is accelerating the pace, to a lower peak, and for a shorter period of time. We don’t fully buy into this and expect that high spot inflation readings will force the Bank to raise rates by 50 bps in December and eventually to 4.75% next year.

The market wasn’t buying it either: in spite of Bailey’s explicit warnings, investors are still pricing in a peak of 4.65%, but the renewed ‘inflation insouciance’ on the part of the central bank did put some pressure the backend of the gilt curve and accelerated the slump in sterling to below 1.12. This morning, however, the dollar is handing back some of its post-Fed advances, in anticipation of the two main events of the day.

Day Ahead

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz finally meets Chinese President Xi Jinping today, a trip that has been heavily criticised by Scholz’ domestic and foreign allies (…and basically everyone else who has had some practice in delayed gratification) as a sign of deference to the increasingly authoritarian leadership in Beijing. In an op-ed for Politico, the Chancellor found the ethical flexibility to a) admit that he too sees China lurching back toward a more openly Marxist-Leninist political trajectory, but b) still reasoning that “it is precisely because ‘business as usual’ is no longer an option in these circumstances that I’m traveling to Beijing”. Again, the regular reader will again know how we look at this: after having made a strategic and, even more reprehensible, a moral miscalculation on Russia, is China really the economic buoy Germany wants to cling onto?

Tellingly, Germany’s new manufacturing orders slumped heavily in September, falling an astonishing -4.0% m/m and -10.8% y/y. The decline stemmed entirely from foreign orders (-7.0% m/m) while domestic orders increased slightly (+0.5% m/m), underlining why Scholz is going cap in (a very weak) hand to China.

It is, however, unlikely that Scholz’ visit will produce any dopamine-inducing headlines, so rest assured that traders instead set their sights on the October non-farm payrolls report. An increase of 195,000 jobs is expected, following a comparable increase of 239,000 in Wednesday’s ADP survey. The White House has been active in some expectations management too, seeing gains of around 150,000 per month in coming months. Unemployment should rise slightly to 3.6% and average hourly earnings should be up 0.3% m/m and 4.7% y/y. That is still some 1.5%-points too high for it to be consistent with 2% inflation, so there’s still a lot to be done.

The JOLTS report earlier this week showed why it may take a while before pay settlements really start to moderate. The voluntary quits rate is still elevated at 2.7%, down from 3% in the ‘Great Resignation’ of late-2021, but still well above the ‘normal’ 2.2-2.4% bandwidth. The report also showed there were still 1.9 job openings for every unemployed worker. Both the quits- and the vacancies/unemployment ratio have a good fit with measures of wage growth. The upward shift in the Beveridge curve, which shows the relationship between unemployment and openings, indicates that the US labour market may not cool in an orderly fashion, with a slowdown in employment growth predominantly leading to falling openings, but only due to a rise in unemployment. In our view, this portends a recession in 2023.

That said, Happy Friday

END

OIL ISSUES/USA AND THE WORLD/NATURAL GAS/DIESEL ETC

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.97954 UP    0.0046 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 147.70   DOWN  0.628 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//

GBP/USA 1.1211 UP   0.0042

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 72.49 PTS OR 2.43% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED  UP  821.65 POINTS OR 5.36% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.55%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 821.65 PTS OR 5.36%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 72.99 PTS OR 2.43%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.55% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 463.65 OR 1.66%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1651.35

silver:$19.92

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 112.26 DOWN .544 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

 FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.26% UP5  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.249% UP 0 AND 3/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.35%// UP 5 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.46  UP 10   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.228%  DOWN 5 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.9895  UP  .01466   or 145 basis points//

USA/Japan: 147.144 DOWN 1.253 OR YEN UP 125 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1284 UP .0113 OR  113 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar  UP .02122 OR 212 BASIS pts  to 1.3530

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(UP) AT 7.1851

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 7.2280

TURKISH LIRA:  18.62  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.249

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at  4.158% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   4.228  UP 8  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 112.35 DOWN 1.46 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 135/86 PTS OR  1.89%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 290.49POINTS OR 2.21%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 163.04 PTS OR 2/61% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 65.30 OR  0.83%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 545.28 PTS OR  2.40%

WTI Oil price 91.58 12: EST

Brent Oil:  97.72   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  62.10DOWN 0  AND 0/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.288

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.5825

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.99554 UP .02069    OR  207  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1370 UP  .02004 or  200 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.5655% 

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.64 DOWN 1.742//YEN UP 174 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3483 DOWN 0.0258  (CDN dollar, UP 258 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 92.62

Brent OIL:  98.60

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.163%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 11 BASIS PTS to 4.256%

USA dollar index:110.69 DOWN 2.12 CENTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.57

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  62.10  DOWN 0 AND  0/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 401.97 PTS OR 1.26 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 166.43 PTS OR 1.56%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 24.67 DOWN 0.63 PTS (2.41)%

GLD: $151.81 UP 4.66 OR 3.07%

SLV/ $19.26  UP $0.21 OR 1.32%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Powell, Payrolls, & Positioning Spark Chaotic Week Across Markets

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Chatter about China easing its Zero-COVID strategy sparked some joy overnight (in crude prices), but the labor market report was a smorgasbord of confusion for algos (keying off the ‘beat’ on the payrolls print and slowing wage growth) and traders (who dug below the surface and saw the real shitshow of job-losses and lack of participation):

  • Good: payrolls beat expectations (tightening not working – bad for stocks)
  • Bad: wage growth slowed modestly (less-flation – good for stocks?), full-time workers dropped 490k (economic weakness – not good for stocks)
  • Ugly: number of unemployed Americans highest since Feb (recession reality – bad for stocks)

On the day, the market took a dovish angle on all this and cut terminal rate-hike expectations. But on the week, short-term interest rates signaled a notably hawkish tone shift…

Source: Bloomberg

But then the FedSpeak began again:

  • 1000ET: Boston Fed’s Susan Collins: …it is time to shift focus from how rapidly to raise rates, or the pace, to how high… followed by a period of holding rates at a sufficiently restrictive level for some time.”
  • 1005ET: Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin: “Fed has more work to do as labor market still tight… with a longer period of rate increases and potentially higher terminal rate…”

It took a while for that set in and the algos to calm down, but as Europe closed, US equity markets puked all their gains back. The majors hovered around unch to weaker until the last hour or so then started to magically levitate back into the green and beyond into the close. By the cash close, Nasdaq was the day’s biggest gainer but everything traded together as the machines ran the show…

On the week, it was all about Powell’s rug-pull. Nasdaq was the biggest loser (down around 6% while The Dow was the prettiest horse in the glue factory, down only 1.5% on the week). This was the Nasdaq’s worst week since January…

Or for those who learn through visuals…

All the majors broke down below key technical levels this week…

Value stocks dramatically outperformed Growth on the week, surging up to pre-COVID levels relative to one another. Value has outperformed growth for 7 of the last 8 days. This week was the biggest value outperformance of growth since Jan 7th…

Source: Bloomberg

That fits with the fact that US Tech stocks puked around 8% on the week while Energy stocks outperformed (up 2% on the week)…

Source: Bloomberg

And before we leave stock-land, Bloomberg notes that the outlook for US corporate profits outside the energy sector is deteriorating fast. Blended earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Ex-Energy Index have been slashed so much since June that they are now back to last December levels.

Source: Bloomberg

While energy companies are benefiting from higher oil prices amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the broader corporate world is feeling the pinch of raging inflation, higher rates and slowing demand.

VIX and Stocks completely decoupled since Powell dropped the hammer as traders monetized hedges…

Source: Bloomberg

…but were not fearful enough to reload on downside put protection (until today a little)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were very mixed on the day with the long-end underperforming (30Y +6bps, 2Y -5bps), but on the week, its the opposite picture with 2Y yield sup 25bps and 30Y up only 10bps as the entire curve repriced higher in yields…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week almost perfectly unchanged after puking back all of the mid-week post-Powell gains today…

Source: Bloomberg

China’s Yuan soared today (by the most since 2005), but that only lifted it back to one-week highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos rallied today lifting them into the green for the week (Litecoin outperformed)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied back above $21k…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied today, hitting its highest in 3 weeks (futs above $1680)…

Oil prices soared this week (helped by chatter about easing China COVID restrictions) with WTI back above $92 (at 3-mo highs)…

Finally, some bad news America, pump prices are about to start soaring again as crude and wholesale gasoline prices are back at 3-month highs…

Source: Bloomberg

And we know who to blame right?

END

I) / LATE MORNING//  TRADING//JOBS REPORT

A PHONY!!

October Payrolls Smash Expectations Even As Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Spikes

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 08:48 AM

The Bureau of Lies and Statistics has done it again: at a time when the best paying tech companies are mass laying off double-digits of their workforce (just ask Twitter today)…

Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA

@GRDecter

Layoffs announced in the last day: – Lyft 13% of workers – Opendoor 18% – Stripe 14% – Chime 12% – Twitter 50% – Morgan Stanley (% unknown)

1:44 PM · Nov 3, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

… and even left-leaning, pro-Biden media outlets such as Axios are pushing reports about “Massive wintertime layoff surge“, moments ago the highly politicized BLS did what everyone expected it to do just days before the midterms when it reported that in October, payrolls jumped by 261K, far higher than the 195K expected, if another decline from the upward revised 315K in September (previously 263K).

This was the strongest best to expectations going back to July. More remarkably, payrolls have beaten expectations on 10 of the past 13 reports!

Adding some more fuel to the Fed’s inflationary fire, the average hourly earnings came hot on a sequential basis, rising 0.4%, above the 0.3% (and above last month’s 0.3% increase), even as the annual increase of 4.7% came in line with expectations and down from September’s 5.0%

The flipside, however, to the strong employment print (which comes from the far less accurate Establishment survey), is that the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped from 3.5% to 3.7%…

… as the number of unemployed persons (from the much more accurate Household Survey) rose by 306,000 to 6.1 million, while the number of employed workers slumped by 328K, completely contradicting the Establishment Survey.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.4 percent) and Whites (3.2 percent) rose in October. The jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), teenagers (11.0 percent), Blacks (5.9 percent), Asians (2.9 percent), and Hispanics (4.2 percent) showed little or no change over the month, perhaps as companies pursuing “equity” laid off their white workers first.

And since the number of employed workers actually tumbled, the participation rate did too, sliding to 62.2% from 62.3%, and below the unchanged print expected.

Of course, as we said in our preview, nothing in today’s report matters – its entire purpose is purely political and meant to set the scene for the midterms. For the real data and the aggressive backward revisions, look to December’s number, when the BLS will finally have to admit the dismal truth about the sad state of the US labor market.

Developing.

END

More garbage

(zerohedge)

‘Bad’ Payrolls Print Sparks Dovish Buying Panic Everywhere

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 09:05 AM

‘Good’ news – the payrolls print rose more than expected.

‘Bad’ news – unemployment rate rose, wage growth slowed, participation rate weakened, and jobless Americans rose to the highest since February.

Commenting on the report, Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong writes that:

“…the jobs report for October sends mixed signals about the labor market, with one survey showing robust job gains while another shows a big jump in unemployment.

Filtering the noise in the data, our takeaway is that the labor market is still very tight and much adjustment still needs to occur before unemployment is close to a neutral level.

We expect that the Fed will ultimately have to raise rates to 5% next year.”

So what to do?

Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir offers the first ‘hot take’ on this morning’s labor market data deluge:

Since it is difficult to describe things as good or bad in this topsy turvy world, let’s look at it from the perspective of:

Makes Fed more likely to hike:

  • Total Establishment Jobs and Revisions very strong.

Should be baked in:

  • Average hourly earnings (monthly 0.4% a tad higher, but annual 4.7% down from 5%).
  • Average work week remaining same at 34.5.

Make Fed less likely to hike:

  • Nothing obvious.

Confusing as heck:

  • Unemployment rate. The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.5% to 3.7% – a step in the right direction, in theory. But, that came with labor force participation rate dropping to 62.2% from 62.3% (one thing almost everyone can agree on is that we’d like to see this tick higher, not lower). So the increase was due to the Household survey saying we LOST 328,000 jobs. Even for “government work” an almost 600k in two things that in theory roughly measure the same things, seems like a lot, but that has been the case for months now.

Jobs continue to be the highlight of all economic and corporate data we receive (unless you look at the Household data).

That is not surprising given the difficulty companies had filling jobs. Job is all likelihood, given the experiences of the past two years, will be the LAST shoe to drop in any economic weakness.

Bottom Line

Probably a touch more impetus to see more hawkish Fed than not, but with so much changing between 2:30 pm on Wednesday and now, it probably isn’t enough to move the needle significantly.

I’ve given up trying to understand why the Household data continues to be so different than the Establishment (2.5 million jobs since March 31, versus 0.5 million) as it doesn’t seem to register with anyone (other than it is what is used to calculate the unemployment rate).

Putting that all together, initially rate-trajectory expectations rose hawkishly (terminal rate jumped above 5.20% with rate-cut expectations falling), but that quickyl reversed with a dovish shift…

Across the rest of the asset-classes, after some initial confusion, everyone is buying everything now…

Stocks wobbled up and down but are now convinced this is a buying opportunity…

Bond yields initially spiked and are now falling rapidly…

Gold and crypto are flying higher…

As the only thing down is the dollar…

Let’s see how this all look in a few hours.

end

The real number is always closer to the household survey.

Here is the real truth as per the jobs report

(zerohedge)

Something Has Snapped: Unexplained 2.3 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 11:18 AM

A simplistic, superficial take of today’s jobs report would conclude that the red hot jump in nonfarm payrolls indicates a “strong hiring market” (just ignore the jump in the unemployment rate). Nothing could be further from the truth.

Recall that back in August and September, we showed that a stark divergence had opened between the Household and Establishment surveys that comprise the monthly jobs report, and since March, the former has been stagnant while the latter was rising every single month. In addition to that, full-time jobs were plunging while part-time jobs were soaring.

Fast forward to today when the inconsistencies not only continue to grow, but in some cases have becoming downright grotesque.

Consider the following: the closely followed establishment survey came in above expectations at 261K, above the 195K expected, and down modestly from last month’s upward revised 319K…

… numbers which confirm that at a time when virtually every major tech company is announcing mass layoffs

… the BLS has a single, political agenda – not to spoil the political climate less than a week ahead of the payrolls.

And speaking of the gap between the Household and Establishment survey which we have been pounding the table on since the summer, it just blew out by a whopping 589K, the most since June’s 608K, thanks to a 261K jump in the number of employed workers (tracked by the Household survey) offset by a perplexing plunge in the number of people actually employed which tumbled by 328K (tracked by Establishment survey)!

What is even more perplexing, is that despite the continued rise in nonfarm payrolls, the Household survey continues to telegraph growing weakness, and as of Oct 31, the gap that opened in March has since grown to a whopping 2.3 million “workers” which may or may not exist anywhere besides the spreadsheet model of some BLS political activist!

Showing this another way, there were 158.5 million employed workers in March 2022… and 158.6 million in October 2022 an increase of just 150K, during a period in which the number of payrolls (which as a reminder is the number the market follows) reportedly increased by 2.5 million!

It get’s better: digging in even deeper into the far more accurate and nuanced Household Survey, we find that the October plunge in Employment was the result of a massive collapse in full-time jobs offset by a modest increase in part-time jobs:

In fact, as shown below, since March, the US has lost 490K full-time employees offset by an almost identical gain of 492K part-time employees, while 126K workers were forced to get more than one job over the same period.

So what’s going on here? The simple answer: no change in the number of people working, but more people losing higher-paying, full-time jobs, and switching into far lower paying part-time jobs, which forces many to also work more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey; meanwhile the Establishment survey plows on ahead with its politically-motivated approximations, seasonal adjustments, and other labor market goalseeking meant to make the Biden admin look good at least until after the midterms .

And since the Establishment survey is far slower to pick up on the nuances in employment composition, while the Household Survey has gone nowhere since March, the BLS data engineers have been busy goalseeking the Establishment Survey (with the occasional nudge from the White House especially with midterms looming) to make it appear as if the economy is growing strongly, when in reality all they are doing is applying the same erroneous seasonal adjustment factor that gave such a wrong perspective of the labor market in the aftermath of the covid pandemic (until it was all adjusted away a year ago). In other words, while the labor market is already cracking, it will take the BLS several months of veering away from reality before the government bureaucrats accept and admit what is truly taking place.

As we said back in August, “We expect that “realization” to take place just after the midterms, because the last thing the Biden administration can afford is admit the labor market is crashing in addition to the continued surge in inflation.” We still hold on to this prediction: expect big negative payroll prints as soon as December.

AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC

end

ii) USA DATA/

Now home flippers are having massive problems as mortgage rates rise (doubling in 10 days) coupling with a fall in price

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

‘Flippers’ F**ked As Mortgage Rates More Than Double In 10 Months

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 08:13 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Home flippers are under increased stress as prices decline and transaction volume plummets…

Mortgage rate chart courtesy of Mortgage News Daily, annotations by Mish.

Death of Deals Puts Stress on Flippers

Since the beginning of the year, mortgage rates have gone from 3.35 percent to 7.30 percent. 

Prices have not declined much yet so the result is a dearth of deals adding to the stress of flippers. 

Alex Thomas has an interesting Tweet Thread on flipping homes. 

Flipping Homes

  • Big takeaways from our survey of fix-and-flippers last week: 1) Rates have massively slowed transactions and prices are falling broadly. 2) Lots of talk about flippers changing strategies, holding-and-renting instead of flipping, or exiting the space entirely.
  • #Atlanta flipper: “Many highly-leveraged flippers will need to go out of pocket to sell or will default on no-recourse loans. We will not see improvement until the 2nd half of 2024. Many will not make it to that point and there will be some bargains for cash-flush investors.”
  • #Baltimore flipper: “Sellers are still not reacting to market shifts. Sellers need to lower prices.”
  • #Boston flipper: “It’s tough to say how far prices will drop and it’s tough to buy projects based on future values.”
  • #Boulder flipper: “Higher rates are making things difficult, but also reducing competition. Things seem uncertain and the market has cooled considerably because of these rate hikes.”
  • #Charleston flipper: “The sales market is definitely heading downward, with some areas seeing price declines on a monthly basis. This trend now needs to be priced-in to new buys.”
  • #Dallas flipper: “Buyers have dropped out of the market, so we have paused buying and selling.”
  • #FortWayne flipper: “Millennials are our largest buyer segment and are too young to remember anything but 2-3% mortgage rates. Higher rates scare them. Low inventory may help, but I see a major downturn coming with large adjustments in home values.”
  • #FortWorth flipper: “Buying investment properties in this market is very difficult right now. Most sellers still want too much money and there is not much available for sale.”
  • #Fresno flipper: “Interest rates have pushed prices out of affordable ranges. Flippers need lower prices to ensure profit margins remain decent.”
  • #HiltonHead flipper: “Flips with an acceptable ROI on paper have been difficult to find. In the past year, rising prices have made marginal flips work. As prices have stagnated, the market has become too risky. I am waiting for some stability before picking up new projects.”
  • #LasVegas flipper: “This market is way overpriced still and wholesale prices are way exaggerated. The cost to rehab has increased and contractors that are credible are difficult to find. Jobs don’t get completed in time or on-budget most of the time.”
  • #LasVegas flipper: “Very difficult to find deals in a downward-trending market. Sellers and wholesalers are asking too much. A wise flipper will sit out for a while. The retail buyers are sitting out until interest rates come back down.”
  • #LosAngeles flipper: “The market has slowed tremendously. Traffic is way down, we are seeing fewer offers, and every buyer is writing lowball offers.”
  • #Memphis flipper: “Up until 3 months ago, I would receive offers from investors paying cash. Now, I seem to almost always receive offers from investors getting package loans and putting 20% down, which of course is nowhere near as desirable as a quick cash closing.”
  • #Nashville flipper: “Sales are slowing every month and prices are under pressure. We expect this to continue and maybe get worse.”
  • #Orlando flipper: “We are now focusing on buying and holding in high-demand areas.”
  • #Phoenix flipper: “Prices are declining and inventory is soaring. We’re looking to buy, rehab, and rent instead of flipping.”
  • #Richmond flipper: “It isn’t worth flipping right now unless you buy at a steep discount to offset declining values. Will look to re-enter the market in 2023 after pricing has hopefully stabilized and more inventory is available for purchase at better prices.”
  • #RiversideSanBernadino flipper: “We are selling homes at prices about -5% to -10% lower than we would have in the spring of this year.”
  • #Sacramento flipper: “It’s time to buy and hold. Sellers in this market are in a need-to-sell situation.”
  • #Sacramento flipper: “It’s time to buy and hold. Sellers in this market are in a need-to-sell situation.”
  • #SanDiego flipper: “Homeowners are more willing to negotiate now and are discounting sale prices drastically to account for a market that is continuing to decline.”
  • #SanFrancisco flipper: “Home prices are dropping. Unless the flip is a slam dunk, we have to be cautious on the purchase.”
  • #Tacoma flipper: “We are waiting for things to stabilize and will proceed from there. Interest rates are not helping.”
  • #Tampa flipper: “The pressure is to the downside and sold comp data is becoming less useful. Prices are declining up to -1% per month. Lenders and other wholesalers should do more work on analyzing recent data. Data from 6 months ago is dangerous for a house flipper.”
  • Many thanks to our partners at Flatiron Realty Capital and @SundaeHQ for their help with this survey.

Housing Is Local Until It Isn’t TM

In every cycle, housing bulls scream “Housing is Local” even as transaction and price declines spread from city to city to nearly everywhere.

Recessions are local too. Nearly everything is local, until it isn’t.

I am sure some places are immune from this, but good luck finding them.  This leads to denial and wishing.

Denial and Wishing 

Walking the Market Down

What I’m seeing is them listing at wish prices, listing at wish rent prices, relisting at still wish prices, relisting to rent at wish rental prices…….properties sitting.

This is called walking the market down, always wanting the price they could have gotten last month.

Existing Home Sales Decline 8th Consecutive Month, Down 1.5% Says NAR

Existing home sales data via St. Louis Fed

On October 20, I noted Existing Home Sales Decline 8th Consecutive Month, Down 1.5% Says NAR

Pending Home Sales Slump 31 Percent From Year Ago, 10.2 Percent in September

Pending home sales chart courtesy of Trading Economics

On October 29, I noted Pending Home Sales Slump 31 Percent From Year Ago, 10.2 Percent in September

Don’t Worry, It’s All Local

Housing is local, one subdivision at a time until it adds up to a national decline of 27.4 percent in 10 months and sure to get worse in the 11th.

Meanwhile, the Fed is hell bent on killing housing. For discussion, please see my report Powell “It’s premature to think about pausing interest rate hikes.”

END

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.

A good outline of what the Democrats have done in office

(Victor Davis Hanson)

Victor Davis Hanson: The Left Were The Mad Scientists – We Were Their Lab Rats

THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

As the midterms approach, one way of looking at America’s current disaster is that we, the American people, were lab rats. And since 2021, the Left were the mad scientists, eager to try out their crackpot leftist experiments on us.

The result is that the housing market is tottering on the verge of collapse.

As interest rates soar, our $31 trillion national debt crowds out everything else in the budget.

Inflation roars at a rate of 8-9 percent per annum, higher than at any time in 40 years.

Yet the prices of the stuff of life – food, fuel, shelter, energy – are far steeper still than the official rate.

No one is safe from thugs anymore – whether a commuter on a New York subway or the Pelosis in Pacific Heights.

The country reportedly has a 25-day supply of diesel fuel – the energy source that runs the nation. Meanwhile, we keep draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve of oil, a commodity we have in abundance but refuse to produce fully.

We never fixed the supply-chain crisis of last year, and so still face shortages of key consumer goods.

The labor participation rate is at a multi-decade low – given fat government COVID subsidies, the Siren-song appeal of staying home after the lockdowns, fear of COVID, and millions of workers with long COVID.

The post-Kabul Pentagon is quiet about the depletion of its critical stocks of weaponry.

We have sent billions of dollars’ worth in howitzer shells, javelin missiles, and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to Ukraine without replenishing our own arsenals. The Army’s recruitment rate is off 50% this year.

Our broken Navy is ossifying as China expands its fleet in expectation of absorbing Taiwan.

When we look to the president for an accounting for these madcap experiments, we get nothing. In the last few weeks, President Joe Biden has lied that gas was $5 a gallon when he took office when it was half that.

He falsely swears that he passed his student-loan amnesty plan by one or two votes when he simply signed away a half-trillion dollars in debt by an executive order and bypassed Congress.

Vice President Kamala Harris is our border czar, but she avoids the nonexistent southern border like the plague.

As the country depletes its petroleum reserves, she gushes about “solutions” like transforming the nation’s school bus fleet to battery power.

On the rare occasion she is allowed abroad, Harris has no idea what North Korea’s official name is, only that it is supposedly one of America’s staunchest allies.

We are now headed for a decisive midterm election. Strangely the hard-left architects of the last two years neither offer a defense of their failing agendas, nor agree to change them.

No Democratic congressional candidates brag about the 3 million people who illegally crossed the border.

None boast that they helped cancel key pipelines, reduced federal leasing of gas and oil, and shut down the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. None take credit for hammering investments in fossil fuels.

None preen over the no-bail and defund-the-police policies of left-wing, big-city prosecutors and mayors who have spiked crime.

None insist that an annual 8-9% inflation rate is a desirable spreading of the wealth.

And yet odder still, no Democratic candidate, state or national – and most certainly not Biden – offers to alter these toxic policies.

If they won’t defend what they have done, they apparently will not undo what they have wrought either.

No Democratic gubernatorial candidate wants one foot built of a new border wall. No House candidate demands that the Keystone pipeline be finished. No senatorial candidate calls for fiscal discipline to lower inflation.

Instead, they stay mute.

Biden mutters lies about MAGA extremists under every bed while daily offering yet another made-up tidbit of his fantasy autobiography.

State and national candidates either avoid debates with their Republican opponents or delay them in hopes they will become irrelevant since millions of mail-in ballots are already cast.

Rarely have voters turned over their country to radicals, socialists, and nihilists.

We did in 2020.

And once the Left took the presidency, the House, and Senate, they tried a deadly experiment on us the American people, their veritable lab rats.

It failed – and has now nearly destroyed us along with the country.

Yet in November the Left apparently demands more time for more experimentation on more of us. But to do what exactly?

Pass more no bail laws and promote more defunding of the police? Make the jails and prisons emptier?

More destruction of what’s left of the southern border?

More biological men overpowering women in sports?

More printing of money?

More cutting back on federal gas and oil leases and canceling pipelines?

Apparently, the only thing that will stop their mad experimentation is that they have run out of us – their once willing lab rats.

END

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//  TURKEY//INFLATION WATCH

20-Pound Turkeys Will Be In Short Supply Ahead Of Thanksgiving, Warns US Gov’t

THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 08:00 PM

Axios quoted US Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, who warned in a call with reporters that avian influenza or bird flu continues to wreak havoc on the poultry industry and could result in a massive shortage of big birds at supermarkets ahead of Thanksgiving. 

Vilsack said finding 20-pound turkeys at supermarkets in some regions across the country could be very challenging. 

“Some of the turkeys that are being raised right now for Thanksgiving may not have the full amount of time to get to 20 pounds,” he said, while addressing the Biden administration’s concerns on elevated food inflation.  

Vilsack said supermarkets should be well stocked with turkeys but finding a traditional-size one (15-20 pounds) in the next two weeks will be difficult: “It’s going to be there, maybe smaller, but it’ll be there.”

The primary reason behind tightening supplies of big birds is the surge in avian influenza at commercial farms this year has led to the culling of more than eight million turkeys. In total, including chickens and turkeys, and other birds, 47.7 million birds have been killed across the country this year. 

Tighter supplies mean consumers can expect to pay $1.47 per pound this holiday season compared with $1.15 last year. On Thursday morning, Walmart released a statement that it would roll back the prices of turkeys to help consumers this holiday season amid the worst inflation in decades.

On the retailer’s website, turkey prices have been halved. But not all consumers shop at Walmart (or maybe they soon will) and will pay the highest cost ever for Thanksgiving items

END

More layoffs in the banking sector as loan volumes collapse a monstrous 90%. The USA economy is collapsing

(zerohedge)

Wells Fargo Braces For More Layoffs As Loan Volumes Collapse 90% YOY

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 12:02 PM

Among the growing list of many companies bracing for layoffs is now Wells Fargo, who has seen their U.S. loan volumes “collapse”.

The fall off in loan volume has left some workers “idle”, according to a new CNBC report. This, in turn, has them worried about further job cuts. 

In the early weeks of Q4, the bank had about 18,000 loans in its pipeline, the report says. This is down an astonishing 90% from a year earlier when the pandemic housing boom was in full swing. 

The dropoff in loan volume is at least partly attributable to a slowing housing market as rates have risen. With the Fed raising rates again this week, it doesn’t look like the spigot on loans is going to be re-opening anytime soon.

Other housing loan companies, like Rocket Mortgage, are also expected to be downsizing as a result of the slowing activity in housing. 

Wells Fargo “has historically been the most reliant on mortgages” out of all major U.S. banks, CNBC notes. 

CFO Mike Santomassimo had already warned about the slowdown in mid-October, stating: “We expect it to remain challenging in the near term. It’s possible that we have a further decline in mortgage banking revenue in the Q4 when originations are seasonally slower.”

The bank said this week: “The changes we’ve recently made are the result of the broader rate environment and consistent with the response of other lenders in the industry. We regularly review and adjust staffing levels to align with market conditions and the needs of our businesses.”

SWAMP STORIES

Twitter’s “Red Wedding” Moment Arrives As Musk Layoffs Begin

THURSDAY, NOV 03, 2022 – 11:51 PM

Twitter – long considered a safe space for election-influencing jackboots drunk on their own arrogance – is having its ‘Red Wedding’ moment, as one Employee characterized the widely anticipated mass layoffs following Elon Musk’s acquisition of the social media giant.

Indeed, with the abruptness of a guillotine, the company’s 7,500 employees were suddenly notified in a Thursday email that the layoffs had begun.

According to the NY Timesworkers were instructed to go home and not come back on Friday as the cuts proceeded.

“In an effort to place Twitter on a healthy path, we will go through the difficult process of reducing our global work force,” read the email. “We recognize that this will impact a number of individuals who have made valuable contributions to Twitter, but this action is unfortunately necessary to ensure the company’s success moving forward.”

According to previous internal messages and an investor, around half of Twitter’s employees were just laid off – however the final number is unknown. On Wednesday employees circulated a message on Slack that suggested 3,738 people could be fired, but that changes could still be made to the list.

On Thursday evening, employees posted heart emojis and salutes in their Slack channel.

The mass layoffs come a little more than a week after Musk completed his $44 billion purchase of Twitter – after which he immediately fired its chief executive and other top managers, while other execs have since resigned or were fired.

Managers were asked to make lists of employees based on performance.

Meanwhile, Musk brought over 50 engineers and employees from his other businesses – including Tesla – to assist with the firings.

The Times then cites some ‘industry’ insider who said there was “nothing visionary or innovative about summarily firing workers by email,” because Musk is firing people with “specialized expertise and de institutional knowledge” before he “even seems to have a basic grasp of the business.”

Or, he’s completely wrong and Musk’s team of 50 were able to figure out how to fire 3,500 people based on contributions.

For employees, it’s a question of whether they ‘can’ or ‘can’t even.’

On Wednesday evening, some employees circulated a “Layoff Guide with tips on corporate surveillance and employment rights. One worker created software to help colleagues download important emails and documents. He was later fired, he said.

On Thursday, workers got other signals that their workplace was changing. Twitter’s “Days of Rest,” which are monthly days off so employees can rest and recharge, were removed from their calendars, two people with knowledge of the matter said. Some workers also noticed that the employee directory had been taken offline, according to internal chats seen by The Times.

Has the red wedding started?” one employee wrote on Slack, a reference to a massacre scene in “Game of Thrones.” Nine minutes later, the company sent the email informing workers of the layoffs. Employees who will keep their jobs would receive a message saying so on their corporate accounts, the message said, while employees being laid off would be notified on their personal accounts.

As the Times further points out, keeping employees out of the office on Friday means that laid off workers can’t take any items from the company (or sabotage it).

“To help ensure the safety of each employee as well as Twitter systems and customer data, our offices will be temporarily closed and all badge access will be suspended,” the email continues.

Congratulations Twitter, you played yourself.

end

Then this:

“Extremely Messed Up!” Musk Says Activists Causing ‘Massive Drop In Revenue’ As Mass Layoffs Loom

Update (1045ET): In a Friday tweet shortly ahead of the planned 9am mass layoffs, Musk says that advertisers are bailing due to pressure from activists, which has led to a ‘massive drop in revenue’ despite no changes to the company’s content moderation.

“We did everything we could to appease the activists,” Musk added.

On Thursday we noted that several brands have ‘paused’ advertising campaigns with Twitter – including food giant General Mills, Oreo maker Mondelez, pandemic profiteers Pfizer and Volkswagen’s Audi.

Kelsey Roemhildt, a spokeswoman for General Mills, whose brands include Cheerios, Bisquick and Häagen-Dazs, confirmed the company has paused Twitter ads. “As always, we will continue to monitor this new direction and evaluate our marketing spend,” she said.

On Wednesday, Musk participated in a video call with WPP PLC, the world’s largest ad company, and some of its clients such as Coca-Cola, Unilever PLC and Google, according to people familiar with the meeting. During the meeting, Musk stressed that Twitter would be a safe place for brands, promising to rid the platform of bots and add community-management tools, according to the people.

He also discussed how he was seeking to segment the content on Twitter so users could customize what shows up in their feeds. That would allow people to have the equivalent of a PG-rated version of the platform, Musk said, and give advertisers the ability to choose which content to be near.

Somehow we doubt that approach will succeed. Instead, what Musk – and other thought leaders – should do, is show the variance in disposable incomes between those who frequent conservative media outlets, and those which are a magnet for liberals. Something tells us advertisers will be very surprise at who has more purchasing power. Because when you cut out the virtue signaling and the PC bullshit, at the end of the day, an ad is supposed to reach the richest, most willing to buy segment of society. The fact that this has become lost may explains the dismal state of consumer-facing companies in the US today.

Let’s not forget that more than 2.1 million people, or 78%, say advertisers should support freedom of speech over political “correctness.”

Meanwhile, cancel queen Nandini Jammi is taking a huge victory lap.

end

Judge Hands Biden Admin Huge Setback In Big Tech-Government Censorship Case

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 12:20 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Biden administration’s attempt to block depositions of several key officials was turned down Nov. 2 by a U.S. judge.

U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty, a Trump appointee, rejected a request for a partial stay of his Oct. 21 order authorizing the depositions of eight officials, including President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Government lawyers asked the judge to impose the partial stay as an appeals court weighs a request to vacate the part of his order that enables the depositions of Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, a Biden appointee; Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Jen Easterly, a Biden appointee; and Rob Flaherty, a deputy assistant to the president.

Absent a stay, “high-ranking governmental officials would be diverted from their significant duties and burdened in both preparing and sitting for a deposition, all of which may ultimately prove to be unnecessary if the Court of Appeals grants” their request, the government said.

Doughty ruled that the government failed to show how the officials would be irreparably harmed apart from referencing a diversion from “significant duties.” That didn’t meet the standard for showing irreparable harm, he said.

On the other hand, the plaintiffs, including the attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana, would be irreparably harmed by a partial stay because they’ve alleged a violation of the U.S. Constitution’s First Amendment and ‘The loss of First Amendment freedoms, even for minimal periods of time, unquestionably constitutes irreparable injury,’” Doughty said, quoting from a ruling in a separate case.

The Court finds that both the public interest and the interest of the other parties in preserving free speech significantly outweighs the inconvenience the three deponents will have in preparing for and giving their depositions,” he added.

The depositions are scheduled to take place in early December. Fauci’s is slated for November, according to a notice made public by The Gateway Pundit, one of the plaintiffs.

Read more here…

END

Pelosi ‘Did Not Declare An Emergency’ – NBC Raises Questions About ‘Unexplained 30 Minutes’ During Attack

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 02:01 PM

The Paul Pelosi attack continues to grow more bizarre by the day.

On Friday, sources familiar with the investigation told NBC News that when the police responded to the high-priority call, they had no idea they had been called to the Pelosi residence. What’s more, Pelosi did not immediately declare an emergency or try to leave his home.

“After a ‘knock and announce,’ the front door was opened by Mr. Pelosi. The 82-year-old did not immediately declare an emergency or try to leave his home,” reports NBC. Instead, Pelosi “began walking several feet back into the foyer toward the assailant and away from police.”

Vlemx4u

@vlemx4u

NBC Report Contradicts Federal Charging Statement in Paul Pelosi Attack – And Paul Pelosi’s Actions NBC reporter Miguel Almaguer reported on the Today Show that accused attacker David DePape and Paul Pelosi were alone in the Pelosi home for thirty minutes, #PaulPelosi

What’s more, Pelosi and attacker David DePape were reportedly alone for 30 minutes.

Of note, NBC News has deleted the clip from their Twitter feed and scrubbed it  from their website.

Meanwhile, a neighbor living across from the Pelosis who was awake when the assault took place didn’t hear an alarm or anything unusual

“No, not a thing, and you know we were awake at that hour in the morning; my husband was awake. We didn’t even hear sirens,” neighbor Sally McNulty told The Epoch Times.

McNulty, who has lived in the neighborhood for 20 years, said everything was quiet around the time of the 2 a.m. attack on Oct. 28.

This is one of the quietest streets in the city,” she said. “You can hear a pin drop at night.”

McNulty said she doesn’t recall ever hearing the Pelosis’ alarm go off in the past, though she has occasionally heard others in the neighborhood.

She said that Paul Pelosi had no enemies she knew of and was well-liked.

Other neighbors declined to comment.

Marjorie Campbell, a former neighbor of the Pelosis for 10 years, told the Daily Mail she recalled fleets of black SUVs surrounding the house around the clock when she stayed there.

Everyone in the neighborhood has alarms on their windows, and if glass were smashed, an alarm would sound, she told the publication. Campbell recalled her computers getting scrambled by alleged security measures to protect the congresswoman.

Nancy Pelosi was at her Pacific Heights home, the site of the attack, on Nov. 2 while several dark SUVs were parked outside. Capitol Police were present, too, as were multiple San Francisco Police Department cars.

Paul Pelosi had surgery to address a skull fracture and other injuries at the Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and Trauma Center, after 42-year-old David DePape allegedly fractured his skull with a hammer on Oct. 28.

DePape pleaded not guilty to an attempted murder charge during a brief appearance in San Francisco Superior Court on Nov. 1. -Epoch Times

As PJ Media reports,

Pelosi’s failure to call out for help or flee his home was a detail in the court filing that previously raised a red flag to me, and it seems that even NBC News finds it odd. “Why Pelosi didn’t try to flee or tell responding officers he was in distress is unclear,” NBC News’s Miguel Almaguer noted.

Nevertheless, the report suggested it was unknown whether Pelosi was already injured or what mental state he was in.

KING REPORT

The King Report November 4, 2022 Issue 6880Independent View of the News
As expected, the Bank of England hiked its Bank Rate by 75bps.  Unexpectedly, the BoE issued a dovish communique.  “The Committee has voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.75 percentage points, to 3%, at this meeting.  The majority of the Committee judges that, should the economy evolve broadly in line with the latest Monetary Policy Report projections, further increases in Bank Rate may be required for a sustainable return of inflation to targetalbeit to a peak lower than priced into financial markets…”
 
@bankofengland: Andrew Bailey explains why we have raised rates today. We know that higher rates have a real impact on people’s lives but inflation is too high. Raising interest rates is the best way we have of getting it back down. Find out more (BoE Communique): https://t.co/VWyskLufPC
 
Reuters: The Bank of England raised interest rates to 3% from 2.25%, its biggest rate rise since 1989, but it pushed back against expectations for further steep hikes, saying Britain faces a long and painful recession… https://t.co/0B6f9DFzJX
 
@AFP: Pound down 2% against dollar after Bank of England rate hike
 
UK’s Hunt: BoE rate hike ‘very tough’ for those with mortgages (UK FM undermining BoE?)
British finance minister Jeremy Hunt said… “Today’s news is going to be very tough for families with mortgages up and down the country, for businesses with loans but there is a global economic crisis… The best thing the government can do, if we want to bring down these rises in interest rates, is to show that we’re bringing down our debt. Families up and down the country have to balance their accounts at home, and we must do the same as the government.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-hunt-boe-rate-hike-very-tough-those-with-mortgages-2022-11-03/
 
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey blames Liz Truss’s mini-budget for leaving Britain ‘hours’ from financial meltdown   https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11388281/Bank-England-Governor-says-Liz-Trusss-mini-budget-left-Britain-hours-financial-meltdown.html
 
US Q3 Nonfarm Productivity increased only 0.3%; +0.5% was consensus.  Unit Labor Costs grew 3.5%; 4% was expected; Q2 was revised to 8.9% from 10.2%.
 
@Mayhem4Markets: Productivity is dangerously low and collapsing. This translates to employers having to pay more to hire people that are doing less. Not ideal in an already seemingly tight labor market, where job openings are strong and labor force participation is rather low as well.
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1588182708949229568
 
S&P Global Oct US Services PMI 47.8, 46.6 expected and prior; Composite PMI 48.2, 47.3 exp. & prior
Oct ISM Services Index 54.4, 55.3 expected, 56.7 prior
 
Initial Jobless Claims 217k, 220k exp, 218k prior; Continuing Claims 1.485m, 1.45m exp, 1.438m prior
 
US Sept Factory Orders 0.3 as expected, Ex-Trans -0.1%, 0% exp; Sept Durable Goods 0.4% as expected, ex-Trans -0.5% as expected, Nondef ex-Air -0.4%, -0.6% consensus; Shipment -0.5%
 
Republicans rip Biden’s ‘divisive’ democracy speech
Biden gave the most DIVISIVE speech in American history two months ago, and tonight, he outdid himself once again,” Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX) said in a tweet.  “Biden is going to get served with a whole bunch of Democracy on November 8th. Democrats are going to be SWEPT OUT of power. On Tuesday, MAGA is going to WIN BIG!!!” Jackson, who served as the White House doctor to former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, added…  https://t.co/k52bZq4b2G
 
The Big Guy’s palpably desperate and divisive speech on Wednesday night went so poorly, for the second time, that Biden Chief of Staff Ron Klain surfaced on Thursday morning (on Biden-friendly MSNBC) to spin the US economy and risibly proclaim that Biden is focused on inflation.  Biden didn’t mention the economy or inflation in his acrimonious speech.
 
@townhallcom: Ron Klain: “That’s the number one problem right now. It’s inflation, and that’s the problem we’re focused on.” Joe Biden gave a primetime speech last night about the “threats to democracy.” https://t.co/utzXULpGOl
 
@townhallcom: Ron Klain almost says the quiet part out loud: “We are in—we are NOT in a recession.”
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1588165430274887681
 
US Economy Is Growing, It’s Creating Jobs, Klain Says – BBG 9:38 ET
 
ESZ traded moderately lower during early Asian trading but turned positive near 21:00 ET.  They then traded sideways until a decline began after China closed.  ESZs and European stocks then commenced a methodical, stair-step decline until a selling surge after the NYSE open climaxed at 10 ET.
 
ESZs surged from a daily low of 3704.25 to 3752.75 at 11:02 ET.  A lackluster A-B-C rally ended at 12:56 ET.  ESZs and stocks then retreated until 13:12 ET.  After a modest rally, ESZs and stocks traded sideways, in a tight range, until then broke down at 14:38 ET.  ESZs and stocks sank into the close.
 
USZs traded similarly to ESZs, except they bottomed near 9 ET at 118 22/32.  They surged to 120 10/32 by 10:55 ET, retreated, and then rose to a daily high of 120 15/32 at 14:32 ET.  They fell into the close.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Huge ESZ and USZ rallies are sharp declines during European trading and early US trading
The DJTA soared on Avis’s 8% rally (Morgan Stanley hiked price target to $160 from $150)
 
Negative aspects of previous session
The dollar went nuclear to the upside due to the BoE’s squishy communique
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What will bulls promote now?  The GOP capture of Congress?
Commodities declined sharply on Powell’s pivot to more hawkish or on ebbing global economy?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3722.88
Previous session High/Low3750.59; 3698.15
 
Blackstone’s $70 Billion Real Estate Fund for Retail Investors Is Losing Steam
A retail boom that supercharged private equity and real estate is slowing, challenging one of the firm’s most ambitious efforts.
    Blackstone’s blockbuster real-estate fund is a $70 billion force in a now-faltering property market. Rising rates and financial tumult are giving some investors second thoughts…  https://t.co/guhu6PErNi
 
Disney CEO Reportedly Calling Multiple GOP Leaders Ahead of Midterm Blowout   https://t.co/Lv2CstBQ9U
 
Midterm study finds mainstream media gave Republicans ‘87%’ more negative coverage than Democrats (And the Dems are in power!) https://t.co/ivG0AKWOlA
 
Chinese-owned TikTok hires Biden’s former campaign national press secretary Jamal Brown
Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley told DailyMail.com: ‘This sort of cozy relationship between the Biden Defense Department and TikTok is alarming.  ‘TikTok and their Chinese parent company present a serious national security threat but Joe Biden continues to dither as they gobble up Americans’ personal information… https://t.co/jWmq9ygkub
 
Fed Balance Sheet: -$46.22B; Bonds & Notes -$31.558B; Currency Swaps -$11.099B
 
Today – The October Employment Report has diminished market importance due to Powell’s remarks on Wednesday.  Even its political effect is diminished.  Americans’ economic plight is not impacted by a single employment report.  Nevertheless, the urge to rig NFP for political expediency remains high.  We have noted for the past few months that the BLS has GREATLY increased its seasonal adjustment to mathematically boost Nonfarm Payrolls.
 
For October 2021, 149.310m jobs (NSA) were adjusted to 148.005m jobs.  -1.305m was the adjustment.
NFP NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001   NFP SA:  https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
 
The S&P 500 500 Index low on Thursday is 3698.25; this is key support.
 
ESZs are -6.75 at 20:35 ET.  If stocks are down in the morning, look for the Friday afternoon rally.
 
Expected economic data: Oct NFP 195k (Whis# 241k), Mfg 12k, Rate 3.6%, Wages 0.3%, Workweek 34.5, Labor Force Participation 62.3%; Bost Fed Pres Collins on Economy & Monetary Policy 10:00 ET
 
Expected earnings: CVS 1.99, YUM 1.15, HUM 6.26, TWTR .01, ROK 2.97, CHRW 2.19, MRO 1.17, ALL -1.59, APA 1.86, IR .59, MGM .24
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3813; 100-day MA: 3898; 150-day MA: 3993; 200-day MA: 4097
DJIA 50-day MA: 30,868; 100-day MA: 31,406; 150-day MA: 31,993; 200-day MA: 32,579
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4570.18 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 3951.16 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3705.97 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3837.53 triggers a buy signal
 
Former AG Barr: There will be no FBI accountability after Russiagate debacle
“It harmed the country, it was completely unfair to the president, and it has completely undercut the FBI.”
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/former-ag-barr-there-will-be-no-fbi-accountability-after-russiagate-debacle
 
GOP @RepTroyNehls: More than 280 police officers have been shot so far in 2022.  How does this not outrage every American?
 
@AmFirebrand: Tucker: “Here’s Joe Biden telling you that thanks to the many changes Democrats have made to our system of voting, we may not know the results of the elections for a few days. But don’t be alarmed. And whatever you do, do not ask questions, or else you’re a criminal.”
https://twitter.com/AmFirebrand/status/1587965561589350403
 
@ElectionWiz: I was just informed by an astute follower that Democrats have “81 million reasons” for needing extra time to count.  Why do Democrats believe counting votes should take so long? Why is counting all the votes by election night an unreasonable task?
     Democrats and their comrades on Twitter can try to lay the narrative about delayed counting all they want, but the jig is up. Any funny business in this election will be sniffed out.
     “Right now, we are somewhere between a red wave and a red tsunami…We project them [GOP] to win over 250 [House seats]; it could be 255; it might get even higher than that…It’s looking like a storm.” – Patrick Basham, Democracy Institute pollster. Basham accurately polled Brexit and Trump 2016.
 
@charliekirk11: The easiest way to run a trustworthy election is for as many people as possible to vote on one day and have all the votes counted in one night. Other countries do this. America used to do this.
So why did Democrats change it?
 
@RNCResearch: (WH Press Sec) Karine Jean-Pierre has no clue what to say when asked about the Biden administration’s work with social media companies to censor information they don’t like as “misinformation.”  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1587876152630124546
 
@runews: Joe Biden: “Gays and gentlemen!”    https://twitter.com/runews/status/1587845239716429827
 
@greg_price11: Joe Biden once again says that he was a college professor after leaving the vice presidency, which is still not a thing he ever did lol. https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1588265376290607104
 
National Review: Is Biden Senile or a Pathological Liar?
(George) Will’s conclusion is that Biden is senile: It is frightening that Biden does not know, or remember, what he recently did regarding an immensely important policy. He must be presumed susceptible to future episodes of similar bewilderment.
   That’s one possibility. The other is that Joe Biden is a pathological liar. There is no third option
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/is-biden-senile-or-a-pathological-liar/
 
Biden to visit deep-blue Chicago 4 days before midterm elections
“…He’s spending a lot of time in very blue places in these last days before the midterms… why is the president spending so much time in blue strongholds?” the reporter asked… “He has been traveling all across the country, he has been talking to the American people…” Jean-Pierre said…  https://t.co/J6Vlf8KBtS
 
Gunman opened fire at Republican candidate’s No. Carolina home while his children were sleeping – as Democrat is forced to drop campaign ad he filmed in front of the property in heated race (US MSM mum!)  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11387801/amp/Shots-fired-Republican-candidate-Pat-Harrigans-North-Carolina-home.html
 
Oh, So That’s Who Broke into Katie Hobbs’ Campaign Office
Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is pointing out the irony of an illegal immigrant breaking into the campaign headquarters of her Democratic opponent and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs… When the break-in occurred last week, Hobbs jumped to hold Lake responsible and the media, local and national, immediately followed
    “She put out a defamatory statement and you all ran with it. You didn’t do your journalistic duty. it was a malpractice of journalism like I’ve never seen before. It was an effort, I believe, to influence this election. Many of you are an arm of the Democrat PartyMany of you are propagandists. And almost all of you should be ashamed,” Lake said… “You don’t care about the facts… you’ll cover the lie, you’ll spread it all over the world over and over and over again. And that is how fake news is spread.”..
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2022/11/02/kari-lake-points-out-the-irony-of-who-broke-into-her-opponents-campaign-office-n2615400
 
NBC historian warns of a future where ‘our children will be arrested and conceivably killed’ if GOP wins – ‘We’re on the edge of a brutal authoritarian system,’ Michael Beschloss claimed…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/nbc-historian-warns-future-children-arrested-conceivably-killed-gop-wins
 
Jon Turley: MSNBC Meltdown: “Our Children will be Arrested and Conceivably Killed” if the GOP Wins Midterm Elections – Last night, President Joe Biden returned to his earlier claim that his political opponents are fascists seeking to establish authoritarianism in the United States. While the hellish red background is gone from his controversial Philadelphia address, the message remains: a vote for the GOP is a vote for tyranny. Despite polls showing citizens view the President as inciting political unrest and potential violence with such attacks, the theme was quickly picked up and magnified in the media. Presidential historian Michael Beschloss actually suggested on MSNBC that we could be just days away from an authoritarian hellscape if the GOP prevails in midterm elections — raising the specter of our children being taken away and killed.
    If you thought that the election was being decided on the top polling issues of the economy, crime, and classic kitchen table issues, think again
    At the same time, Democrats and the J6 Committee are pursuing those who engaged in similar inflammatory rhetoric leading up to the January 6th riot. The airways are also now filled with warnings from leaders such as Hillary Clinton that the midterm elections are about to be “stolen.” Likewise, many are campaigning to ban books by figures like Justice Barrett in the name of protecting free speech.
    It is all perfectly Orwellian, but it is not particularly effective. With the over-the-top rhetoric and open bias in the media, the public is tuning out many in the press (which is at record lows in trust). This is becoming a type of primal scream session among friends, cathartic but confined.
    President Biden was widely criticized for his Philadelphia speech, but he and others are now doubling down on this type of reckless rhetoric.  The likely effect will be to incite further violence and to give license to the most unhinged in our society.
https://jonathanturley.org/2022/11/03/msnbc-meltdown-our-children-will-be-arrested-and-conceivably-killed-if-the-gop-wins-midterm-elections/
 
@TomBevanRCP: “Whether our children will be arrested and conceivably killed.”   How is this lunatic allowed on TV?
 
@MattWolking: Not a single reporter has ever asked Joe Biden why he undermined our democracy by telling this woman she was absolutely right that Donald Trump was an illegitimate president
https://twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1587964982947364871
 
Bolduc Campaign Claims Candidate Was Attacked Before Debate
Don Bolduc’s campaign claims the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire was attacked ahead of his debate against incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan on Wednesday evening…Bolduc was unharmed, and the suspect was arrested…
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/bolduc-campaign-claims-candidate-was-attacked-before-debate/
 
AOC and Elon Musk’s Twitter feud continues as her Twitter account ‘conveniently’ stopped working after she called him out over his new $8-a-month blue tick charge
    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 33, called out Elon Musk, 51, for ‘selling people on the idea that ‘free speech’ is actually an $8/[month] subscription plan’
    The billionaire businessman replied to AOC on Tuesday evening, saying: ‘Your feedback is appreciated, now pay $8’
    Musk, who’s estimated to be worth $223billion, proposed on Tuesday an $8-a-month subscription free for a verification checkmark
    He said the current ‘lords and peasants system’ in place at Twitter was ‘bulls**t’
    Their feud continued overnight, with Musk pointing to a $58 AOC sweater…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11385493/AOC-Elon-Musks-Twitter-feud-continues-Twitter-account-conveniently-stopped-working.html
 
@Peoples_Pundit: The @FoxNewsPoll polled Pennsylvania and didn’t even list the correct third parties on the ballot.  Holy crap. Ugh.  (No wonder its polls have been so faulty!)
 
Top House Republicans blister Homeland chief Mayorkas over censorship, personal honesty
New letter demands documents on censorship partnership with private group, questions truthfulness of DHS secretary’s public statements on border patrol agents…
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/top-house-republicans-blister-homeland-chief-mayorkas-over-censorship-personal
 
Trump says Republicans should IMPEACH Mitch McConnell because they ‘have something on him’ and should hold the debt limit to ransom in his closing midterms message
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11386443/Trump-says-Republicans-IMPEACH-Mitch-McConnell-Democrats-him.html
 
Trump rips McConnell on debt limit: ‘If I run, and if I win, he will not be leader’
“He is a bad guy. He’s done a bad job. He’s allowed $4 trillion to go into the hands of the Democrats, and this is $4 trillion into the hands of these radical-left Democrats who are wasting it on the Green New Deal — think of it,” Trump said.  “He increased the debt ceiling, he approved the debt ceiling, he let them have it, and he got nothing for it, and they must have something on him,” he added. “The only thing I can say about him they must have something on him.” …  https://t.co/Wnbhl42j2S
 
Trump considering launching fresh White House bid after midterm elections-advisers
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-considering-launching-fresh-white-house-bid-after-midterm-elections-2022-11-03/
 
Vanity Fair reports if DJT runs in 2024, DeSantis will probably wait until 2028 to run for the presidency.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/11/ron-desantis-donald-trump-2024
 
Police Respond to Trespassing Call at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago, Secret Service Conduct Sweep
“At 8:08 this morning, we had a male subject that was stopped at one of the gates refusing to leave the property. We responded, spoke briefly with him, and he was issued a written warning for trespass and he left the area so there wasn’t an incident report or anything associated with it.”…
https://conservativebrief.com/police-respond-67918/?utm_source=CB&utm_medium=DJD
 
@Breaking911: HILLARY CLINTON: “The states with the highest crime levels are states run by Republicans. That’s just a fact! We saw that very clearly in the recent debate in Oklahoma.”
(Lying for decades without consequence!) https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1588297064470937601
 
NYT: Essay; Blizzard of Lies   by William Safire   Jan. 8, 1996
Americans of all political persuasions are coming to the sad realization that our First Lady… is a congenital liar.  Drip by drip, like Whitewater torture, the case is being made that she is compelled to mislead, and to ensnare her subordinates and friends in a web of deceit…
https://www.nytimes.com/1996/01/08/opinion/essay-blizzard-of-lies.html
 
Israeli PM Lapid concedes election to Netanyahu (Amazing comeback for Bibi!) https://t.co/gqMG93kIcg
 
@disclosetv: Blood moon lunar eclipse to rise on Election Day over the United States — the last total lunar eclipse the E


 

GREG HUNTER REPORT

Voting, Vax & Economy Frauds Will End Quickly

By Greg Hunter On November 4, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups17 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 554 11.4.22) 

As an investigative reporter for two TV stations and two networks (ABC and CNN), I did a lot of financial stories that centered around some sort of fraud.  The biggest thing I learned is that frauds end quickly.  I use Bernie Madoff as an example.  Madoff conducted a $60 billion Ponzi hedge fund for 20 years.  It all ended Thursday, December 11, 2008, when Madoff was arrested, and he died in prison.  As Forrest Gump said, “And then one day it was over, just like that.”  The gigantic voting fraud scheme that put Biden into office is showing signs it is falling apart.  How much fraud do Democrats have to commit when the leader of their party has about a 10% approval rating.  That is a record my sources say going back all the way to the Civil War.

The CV19 vax fraud is also coming to an end.  It started with Dr. Deborah Birx admitting on FOX three months ago that, “I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection. And I think we overplayed the vaccines.”  It was all downhill from there.  Now, every week, there are reports from around the world of people just dropping over dead, usually from a heart attack.  Millions have reported vax injuries.  600 million doses of CV19 poison were injected in America alone, and we are just getting started.  The big tell the Vax fraud is coming to an abrupt end happened this week with an article in the Atlantic asking to “Declare a Pandemic Amnesty.”  These evil bastards know what’s coming, and it won’t be pretty.  The public response has been vicious and vile against the lockdown lunatics and the CV19 clot shot pushers.  Soon everyone will know they have been scammed, poisoned, injured and murdered by a bioweapon.

Finally, the financial fraud going on for decades is coming to an end.  It was all turbo charged in the 2008 meltdown.  The Fed fixed it all with money printing and never stopped.  Now, inflation is raging at 16% or more, but they tell you it’s only 8%.  Total lie and the money printing that caused it is a total fraud.  We were told this week that the Fed was going to “pivot” and cut back on the rate hikes.  We were told the Fed was going to raise its inflation target to 3%.  It was fake news at its finest, and Fed Head Jay Powell said just the opposite when he announced another .75% rate hike and said they were going to keep coming until the Fed hit the old 2% inflation target.  The pain coming from the interest rate hikes are just beginning, and the end of the economic fraud based on free money and low rates is coming to a screeching halt.  Remember, frauds end quickly.

There is much more in the 1-hour and 6-minute news cast.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 11.4.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/voting-vax-economy-frauds-will-end-quickly/)

After the Interview:

SEE YOU ON MONDAY

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