NOV 7/GOLD ROSE BY $2.95 TO $1677.75//SILVER WAS UP $.12 TO $20.74//PLATINUM WAS UP A STRONG $24.15 TO $981.50//PALLADIUM WAS UP $48.65 TO $1901.55//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//UKRAINIANS HIT THE KHERSON DAM WITH ONE MISSILE WITH SO AMOUNTS OF DAMAGE SO FAR//FRANCE’S BIGGEST GLASS MANUFACTURER DURALEX SHUTTING DOWN FOR 6 MONTHS BECAUSE OF HIGH ENERGY COSTS//FRANCE ALSO REPORTS LOWER NUCLEAR OUTPUT AND WARNS OF A HARSHER WINTER//ITALY REFUSES TO ALSO MIGRANTS TO ENTER ITS COUNTRY//PEPE ESCOBAR: A MUST READ!!//USA GREENLIGHTS ROCKETS TO FINLAND AND THAT WILL THOROUGHLY UPSET RUSSIA//COMCAST ANNOUNCES IT WILL BEGIN TO LAYOFF EMPLOYEES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

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GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP $2.95 to $1677.75

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  UP $0.12  to $20.86

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1674.50

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 20.79

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $20,790 DOWN 199

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,847 DOWN 142

Platinum price closing  UP $24.15  AT  $981,50

Palladium price; closing UP $48.65  at $1901.55

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: 2259.85 DOLLARS DOWN 2.82 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ

BRITISH GOLD: 1453.99 POUNDS PER OZ DOWN 21.00 POUNDS PER OZ

EURO GOLD: 1670.70 EUROS PER OZ DOWN 15.47 EUROS PER OZ.

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,672.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/04/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 11/08/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


132 C SG AMERICAS 7
190 H BMO CAPITAL 24
323 C HSBC 15
661 C JP MORGAN 280 83
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 20 20
800 C MAREX SPEC 5 3
880 C CITIGROUP 15
880 H CITIGROUP 136
905 C ADM 1


TOTAL: 305 305

JPMORGAN STOPPED  83/305

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV. CONTRACT:    305 NOTICES FOR 30,500 OZ  or 0.9486 TONNES

total notices so far: 4858 contracts for 485,800 oz (15.110 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 7 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 35,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  161 :  for 805,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $2.95

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A BIG CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 920.57 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.96 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.12

AT THE SLV// :/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 00.00 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 477.678 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 558 CONTRACTS TO 138,558 AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE FAIR LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OU HUGER $1.31 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.31)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5948 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE ATTEMPT AT SPEC SHORT COVERING  THEIR SHORTFALLS BUT TO LITTLE AVAIL.WE HAD NO SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AS THE PRICE ESCALATED AWAY FROM THEM CAUSING LOTS OF LOSSES. // OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS CAUSING MISERY TO OUR SHORTERS. 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) CONSIDERABLE ATTEMPTED  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS WITH NO SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A MAMMOTH ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.045 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 80,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:1.485 MILLION OZ/    / //  V)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ 

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -171

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 5 days, total 9820 contracts: 49.100 million oz  OR 9.820MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1964 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 49.100 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 49.100 MILLION

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 558 DESPITE OUR HUGE  $1.31 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A MAMMOTH SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 6,335 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.345 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 80,000 QUEUE JUMP/  .. WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 5948 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.075 MILLION  OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE NOW TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING THOSE SHORTS ESPECIALLY WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE ON FRIDAY.

 WE HAD 7  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  35,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 8687 CONTRACTS  TO 474,056 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -710  CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR HUGE RISE IN PRICE OF $44.45//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY //  CONSIDERABLE ATTEMPTED SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS//ZERO SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  WITH CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS. WE WITNESSED DAY ONE OF THIS AS EVERYBODY WISHES TO BUY BUT NO SELLERS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GOOD 3200 OZ QUEUE JUMP //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE RISE IN PRICE OF  $44.45 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 3,337 OI CONTRACTS (10.38 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..WITH THAT LOSS DUE TO SPECULATORS TRYING TO EXTRICATE THEMSELVES FROM THEIR MESS.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5350 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 474,766

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2627 CONTRACTS  WITH 7977 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX (SHORT SPECULATORS GETTING OUT OF THEIR MESS) AND 5,350 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2627 CONTRACTS OR 8.171 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5,350) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (8687): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3337 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE ATTEMPTED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS AS WELL AS ZERO SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC  ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GOOD QUEUE JUMP OF 3200 OZ //NEW STANDING 20.186 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

NOV

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :

24,693 CONTRACTS OR 2,469,300 OZ OR 76.80 TONNES 5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4939 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 76.80 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  76.80/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.16% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  76.80 TONNES//INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A FAIR SIZED  558 CONTRACT OI TO  138,558 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 6335 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 6335  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6355 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI  LOSS OF 558  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 6335  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN  OF 5777  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 28.885MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF  $1.31. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.02 PTS OR 0.23%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 434.77 OR  2.69%    /The Nikkei closed UP 327.90 OR 1.21%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  0.56%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7.2282 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.2319//    /Oil UP TO 92.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 98.23    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8,687  CONTRACTS TO 474,766 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $44.45  IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (5350 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED HUGE NUMBER OF SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NO DOUBT ON FRIDAY THEY HAD CONSIDERABLE TROUBLE TRYING TO COVER. WE HAD MANY BUYERS OF CONTRACTS BUT FEW WILLING TO SELL.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON -ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 5,350 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC : 5,350  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5,350 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN FAIR SIZED  TOTAL OF 3337  CONTRACTS IN THAT 5,350 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 8.687  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $44.45//WE FINALLY HAD HUGE SPEC SHORTS TRYING TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALL WITH LIMITED SUCCESS. BANKERS CONTINUE  AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS.  WE ALSO HAD STRONG ADDITIONAL  NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG  WITH ZERO SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS TO THEIR SHORT SIDE.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING NOV   (20.186),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 20.186 TONNES/INITIAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 564.435 TONNES)

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $44.45) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS.  HOWEVER WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORTS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL.  WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3337 CONTRACTS.//    WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI  OF 8.171 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (20.186 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $44.55 

WE HAD -710  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3337 CONTRACTS OR 333,700  OZ OR  10.38 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 223,424//  fair to good//

final gold volumes/yesterday  318,063/  good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //NOV 7

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 249,489.025oz


Brinks
JPMorgan



includes 6797 kilobars/JPMorgan
 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today305   notice(s)
30,500  OZ
0.9486 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1632 contracts 
163200 oz
5.076 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month4858 notices
485,800
15.110TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits  nil oz

 customer withdrawals:2

ii) Out of Brinks 30,958.750   

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  2158,530.275

total:  249,489.025 oz

total in tonnes: 7.760 tonnes

Adjustments: 1//  dealer to customer

i) Out of  Int. Delaware 12,056.625 oz 

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER.

For the front month of NOV. we have an oi of 1937 contracts having LOST ONLY 654 contracts.   We had  686 notices served on FRIDAY so we gained a strong 32

or an additional 3200 OZ (0.09 TONNES) will stand in this non active month of November.  We will have Nov gold tonnage standing increase daily from this day forth until the end of the month.

This queue jumping originates in London with the exercising of London based EFP’s for comex gold.

December LOST 13,549 contracts DOWN to 334,619. DEC WILL BE A DILLY OF A DELIVERY MONTH.

JANUARY  GAINED 89 contract to stand at 126.

February gained 4,204 contacts up to 98,627.

We had 305 notice(s) filed today for 30,500 oz 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  280  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 305 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 83 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4858) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (NOV 1937 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 305 x 100 oz per contract equals 649,000 OZ  OR 20.186 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   non active month of NOV. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV. contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4858) x 100 oz+   (1937)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (305} x 100 oz} which equals 649,000 oz standing OR 20.186  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOV..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  20.186 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING//NEW RECORD FOR NOV (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,980,084.743OZ   61.59 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  24,346,641.820 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,216,861.850  OZ (348.89tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,129,779.970OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,236,777 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 287.30 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

NOV 7//INITIAL NOV. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,479,884.573oz



CNT
Brinks
Delaware
HSBC
JPMorgan
Manfra

 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory600,696.160 oz

CNT

 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)7  CONTRACT(S)  
 (35,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)116 contracts 
(580,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)161 contracts
 (805,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  6 withdrawals out of the customer account

i) Out of Brinks  34,993.330 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 383,420.995 oz

iii) Out of Delaware:  21,014.608 oz

iv)Out of HSBC:  600,165.800 oz

v) Out of jPMorgan  19,259.300 oz

vi)Out of Manfra:441,030.540 oz

Total withdrawals:  1,479,884.523 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 154,725million oz/299.491 million =51.33% of comex .//dropping fast

 Comex deposits: 1

i) Into CNT  600,696.160 oz

total:  600,696,160  oz

 adjustments: 1

Delaware/customer to dealer  38,500.923 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.848 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 299.491 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI: 123 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 16 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 16 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 80,000 OZ WILL STAND

FOR SILVER IN THIS VERY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 2627 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 100,384

 (WE WILL HAVE A DANDY DEC. DELIVERY MONTH AS THE CONTRACTION IS GOING VERY SLOWLY)

JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 3 CONTRACTS UP TO 1286 CONTACTS.

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:7 for 35,000   oz

Comex volumes:87,567// est. volume today// very good   

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 121,860 contracts (  excellent)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  161 x 5,000 oz = 804,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(123) and the number of notices served upon today 7 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the NOV../2022 contract month: 161 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (123)  – number of notices served upon today (7) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV. contract month equates 1,485,000 oz. 

We will gain in silver oz standing from this day forth until the end of the month.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:104,869// est. volume today//    huge/shorts covered

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 77,563 contracts ( good)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.95: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.96. TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $44.45 TO $1673.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROMTHE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES.

NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.

NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES

OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//

OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 906,96TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

NOV 7/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.31 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.972 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//

NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ

OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.

OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/

OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///

OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//

Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 477.678 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered a 75-basis point rate hike, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell failed to deliver the more doveish rhetoric that many expected. The messaging did not indicate much softening in the stance on the future trajectory of rate hikes, despite an apparent “soft pivot” the week before.

In his podcast, Peter broke down Powell’s messaging and pointed out a number of very scary admissions that came out of the Fed meeting.

Peter said the Fed did do a soft pivot but was able to back off when the bond market stabilized.

I believe the Fed was forced into making that pivot because it stood on the precipice of a bond market crash, which was in the process of happening. And I think the only way the Fed was able to stop that slow-motion crash from playing out accelerating was by throwing a bone to the markets and indicating through the Wall Street Journal that there was going to be some type of statement that was going to go along with the rate hike that would indicate that maybe there was going to be a pause in the pace, a slowdown in the pace, that the Fed was going to take a step back and reflect and assess, and maybe acknowledge the progress that had been made without indicating complete victory, but at least acknowledging that victory was at least in sight and that the Fed could take a more cautious approach going forward. … Something to that effect was expected.”

However, the Fed didn’t deliver anything close to that.

Initially, the markets thought the Fed was going more doveish. The statement released by the FOMC left some wiggle room for a slowdown in hiking or even a pause with language about monetary policy “lags” and “cumulative” effects.

In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”

By acknowledging the lag between rate hikes and inflation, the Fed gave itself the leeway to pause.

Initially, the stock market rallied. But during his prepared marks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spooked the markets, saying that price stability is essential and the historical record strongly cautions against prematurely loosening policy. Powell emphasized that the central bank was committed to “staying the course” until the job is done.

As he moved through the Q&A, Powell dropped a number of what Peter called “unexpected bombshells” that the markets were not expecting.

First, he reiterated the Fed’s commitment to positive real interest rates. Right now, the Fed interest rate sits at 4%, but CPI remains over 8%. Powell implied that we will get to positive real rates as CPI falls. But what if CPI doesn’t fall? That would mean interest rates have to go much higher than the markets anticipate.

I think the fact that Powell had to acknowledge that ultimately we have to have a positive real interest rate — that is very scary for the markets.”

Powell also admitted they don’t know what the actual underlying inflation rate is.

Now, that is a very scary admission by the Fed. Because if the Fed is committed to fighting inflation, but it doesn’t even know how big the monster that it has to slay is, then how does it know how many rate hikes are going to be necessary? How does he know how high rates have to be in order for there to be a positive real rate of interest if he doesn’t even understand what the underlying rate of inflation is? And if he doesn’t understand it now, why will he understand it at some point in the future? The Fed has no clue. All it’s looking at is the same headline number as everybody else. And based on that, the Fed is still way behind the inflation curve and has a long way to go. And that, again, should scare anybody who is counting on the Fed to ease up on its current trajectory of tightening.”

When asked if inflation has become entrenched, Powell didn’t say no. In fact, Powell said the Fed has no way of knowing when inflation becomes entrenched.

That’s another scary admission by the Fed. Because if it doesn’t know, it’s just kind of flying blind, and it has to err on the side of caution to make sure inflation doesn’t become entrenched.”

Of course, as Peter pointed out, inflation is entrenched. It’s not a matter of psychology. It is a matter of monetary policy.

The Fed has created so much inflation for so long — it didn’t even start with COVID. It didn’t even really start with QE. The Fed was creating inflation even before it upped the ante to quantitative easing and then upped it again in the aftermath of COVID.”

Powell also admitted that inflation was a lot higher and has lasted a lot longer than anybody at the Fed had expected.

This is tantamount to saying, ‘We got this wrong. We made a mistake. And now we need to correct that mistake by staying tighter for longer or going higher than markets expect.’

Powell said the real risk was in doing too little tightening, not doing too much. He said he would prefer to overtighten. Powell said if the central bank tightens too much, it has the tools to support economic activity if necessary. In other words, it can always go back to monetary stimulus.

Again, those are very scary comments, especially if you were expecting the Fed to adopt a softer tone.”

But it also reveals the fatal flaw in the Fed’s thinking.

Powell is wrong to think that if they just tighten too much, meaning they tighten so much that the economy really weakens into a severe recession, that the Fed has the tools to prop it back up and stimulate it to support economic activity. It doesn’t. Because if the fight against inflation drives the economy into recession, if the Fed then uses those very tools to support the economy, well then, inflation is going to take off and get much worse. You see, if the Fed is really committed to fighting inflation, then those tools are no longer at its disposal. The fact that Powell is so quick to admit that he’s going to use those tools if the inflation fight does too much damage to the economy really reveals that the Fed is not as committed to fighting inflation as it maintains, or as the markets believe. Because, as I’ve said many times, the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation stops if it brings about a severe recession or a financial crisis.”

The Fed is willing to tolerate a “hard landing” and a mild, short recession. But if it gets worse than that, it will use its tools. Peter said he thinks it will use those tools long before inflation gets near 2%.

But even in the extremely unlikely situation where the Fed got inflation back down to 2% because of its tightening and then, with inflation at 2%, the Fed then used those tools to stimulate the economy, anything it had achieved in reducing inflation will be lost and the inflation rate will spike back up again. So, even if inflation does go to 2%, the Fed still can’t use those tools.”

Peter said when the economy really starts to fall apart, the Fed will make a hard pivot. He also said despite Powell’s rhetoric, he believes the Fed did recently do a soft pivot to rescue the bond market.

It’s just that Powell didn’t follow through in the Q&A. I think that pivot was, in fact, written into the prepared remarks, but Powell went off script and went back to his newfound hawkishness.”

The rally in the bond market after the soft pivot made that possible.

But now that Powell has returned to his hawkish rhetoric, the market crash that the Fed interrupted is going to resume. And I think when faced with those circumstances again, especially if it’s the bond market and not just the stock market, I think Powell is going to have to come back and clarify his remarks. And by clarify, I mean do a complete 180

END

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards: A Bodyguard Of Lies

JIM RICKARDS:

SATURDAY, NOV 05, 2022 – 03:30 PM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

The all-important midterm elections are just one week away. I’ve said a lot about them, and will have more to say about them in the days to come.

But today, I want to talk about something even more important: truth vs. official lies. More specifically, I want to talk about truth and propaganda.

It’s said that truth is the first casualty of war. And Churchill once said that in wartime, truth is so precious that it needs to be surrounded by a bodyguard of lies.

That’s why propaganda plays such a large role in modern warfare.

The fact is wars are conducted in part through lies and propaganda. For example, in the early days of World War I, the British cut the undersea communications cables that ran from Germany to the U.S.

The British wanted to control the flow of information and issue what we call today “misinformation.” And so they created inflammatory accounts of German atrocities to sway public opinion, like German soldiers skewering Belgian babies on bayonets.

While there will always be individual acts of atrocity in wartime, these reports were largely propaganda.

Here in the U.S. itself, President Wilson had special police forces who arrested anyone reporting negative news on the progress of the war. Sound familiar?

It’s like the social media companies today canceling or censoring anyone who reports that the vaccines don’t work or masks don’t work. The media call it “misinformation” (even though it’s scientifically valid) and move on.

The same is true with the war in Ukraine. The propaganda machine kicked into overdrive early on.

Bodyguard of Lies

The CIA and MI6 leaked a steady stream of anti-Russian lies to prop up morale. These lies were reprinted in warmonger media outlets like The Washington Post, The New York Times and NBC News.

That means it’s almost impossible for U.S. citizens to get the real story through mainstream media outlets. Still, there is some honest reporting going in if you know where to find it.

You just have to filter the sources and find those with good pipelines of information (including inside the government) who do not have a hidden agenda and are willing to speak the truth.

It’s not necessary to rely on Russian sources (the Russians are certainly not above propaganda, although they’re generally more truthful than the U.S. media, believe it or not). There are excellent analyses to be found among Swiss sources, German experts who are not in favor of the war and some on-the-ground reporting from the front lines on specialist websites.

Get Ready for the Russian Counteroffensive

Some of the best sources are found among retired U.S. military officers who are experts on warfare, still have good contacts inside the military and intelligence communities, and who consider the war in Ukraine to be highly detrimental to U.S. national security and the economy.

One top commentator who fits this description is Colonel (Ret.) Douglas Macgregor, who wrote a recent commentary about the war. Macgregor points out that Russia is preparing for a full-scale counterattack to roll-back recent Ukrainian gains near the Donbas and Kherson.

The Russians have been consolidating their positions: resupplying, mobilizing troops, and preparing for winter warfare at which they excel. It’s just a matter of waiting for the ground to freeze so trucks and armor can maneuver without getting bogged down.

The attack could come as early as November or December at the latest. Yet, that is not Macgregor’s main concern.

Is the 101st Airborne Division Being Used as Bait?

His fear is that the U.S. will double down in the face of this attack and deploy U.S. troops to the battle. The Pentagon recently deployed units of the 101st Airborne Division to Romania, just miles from its border with Ukraine.

Airborne forces are generally light infantry that lack the firepower of, say, armored units or mechanized infantry.

But if these forces did get directly involved in the fighting, heavier reinforcements would be on the way. From there, it could be a short step to nuclear war with Russia.

To some, that might sound unrealistic or even paranoid. They’ll say it’s just scare-mongering. But this is a legitimate possibility, and there’s a real chance of it happening. The fact is, we’ve been on the path of escalation with Russia since 2008 and the tempo of escalation has accelerated since the war began in February.

All experts on nuclear warfighting agree that if a nuclear war begins, it will be the result of escalation to the point that one side feels it is cornered and has no choice but to use nukes. That point is getting closer by the day.

Macgregor calls on Congress to stop the White House, but he’s not optimistic that’ll happen.

Nuclear War? It’s Not the End of the World

The possibility of nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia is a shocking development after thirty years, during which nuclear weapons and nuclear war between superpowers were almost forgotten.

What is as disconcerting is the fact that the discussion of nuclear war is casual, almost flippant, and carries none of the seriousness with which the topic was formerly addressed. It also carries no comprehension of the existential consequences and sheer horror that the use of nuclear weapons entails.

It’s almost as if the warmongers in and around the White House were playing a game of chicken without realizing the other driver had no intention of changing course.

Now the U.S. elites have started psychological operations (psyops) aimed at Putin with nuclear weapons as the bait. They claim that Putin has threatened to use tactical weapons in Ukraine and possibly other parts of Eastern and Central Europe.

That’s a lie; Putin never said that.

When asked, both Putin and Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev said that if attacked, Russia would defend itself by all means necessary, including the possible use of nuclear weapons. That’s not news. That has been Russian or Soviet policy since the early 1950s. It has also been U.S. policy since then. Neither side has ever renounced the first use of nuclear weapons.

Putin’s expected answer to a question posed has been turned into a threat he never made. This is U.S. and UK propaganda at its worst (and most dangerous). This lie about Putin’s intentions quickly morphed into another psyop about a “false flag” operation.

That’s when you stage an attack disguised to look like an attack by your enemy in order to justify your own “retaliation,” which you were planning all along. Recently, the narrative that Putin would use nukes or conduct a false flag operation morphed into a related narrative that Putin would use a “dirty bomb.”

He Said, He Said

In effect, Putin would detonate a dirty bomb and then blame the Ukrainians and Americans. A dirty bomb is not a nuclear weapon, but it does employ radioactive material wrapped around conventional explosives. When detonated, the radioactive material is dispersed and can poison or kill any people or livestock in the area.

Not to be outdone, the Russians countered by saying the U.S. or Ukraine would conduct the false flag by detonating a dirty bomb and then blaming the Russians as an excuse to escalate Western involvement in Ukraine.

At this point, we have both sides warning the other side will conduct a false flag with a dirty bomb in order to justify their own pre-planned escalation. If a dirty bomb does go off, each side will blame the other and the truth will be a casualty of war.

Meanwhile, a senior Russian foreign ministry official has warned that U.S. satellites, which have been providing critical targeting information to Ukraine’s armed forces, may be “legitimate” targets of Russian forces.

How would the U.S. respond if Russia starts taking out its satellites? We may soon find out.

Is Your Portfolio Ready for Nukes?

By the way, I’m not apologizing for Putin or defending his invasion of Ukraine. I’m just looking at the current situation and objectively analyzing where things could go next, based upon the facts.

And I’m not making a specific prediction; I’m just giving you a warning because the media doesn’t seem to want to.

It might seem like an inappropriate question given the potential for widespread death and destruction, but is your portfolio ready for nukes?

In a nuclear confrontation, stocks and bonds could become worthless as exchanges are closed around the world. At best, they will retain some value as illiquid private equity tokens.

The best assets in this catastrophic scenario are land, gold, silver, food, water, and heat for your home.

Nothing else will matter much.

END

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Week closes with gold and silver trending sharply higher

Precious metals volatility following last week’s FOMC meeting, and the announcement of yet another 75 basis point rise in the Federal Funds interest rate was nothing if not volatile in the extreme. The immediate reaction was for the gold price to surge to well above $1,670 an ounce and silver to around the $20 mark, only to see both precious metals fall back heavily, gold to around its lowest point in over 2 years, on Fed chair Powell’s rather more hawkish post-meeting follow-on presentation to the assembled media. In it he seemed to suggest that the Fed was not necessarily done with its aggressive approach to interest rate rises to combat inflation and bring it down to the target 2% level. It was better, he averred, to over-tighten, and subsequently reverse course, than to under-correct and for inflation potentially to become endemic.

But there were also signals that a reduction in the size of interest rate impositions might be under consideration too – a position seemingly supported by some other Fed officials in subsequent statements. This could even be as soon as at the December FOMC meeting. And this latter premise gave some possibly unwelcome encouragement to the equity markets late in the day Friday.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Fedwatch Tool is certainly also moving in this direction with the latest prediction now showing a 52% likelihood of a slightly reduced 50 basis point rate rise at the December meeting as opposed to 48% favouring a 75 basis point increase – a reversal of the position of only a day earlier. We suspect the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release due out on Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will thus set the scene for the next phase in precious metals and equity price movements. It will give the markets further ammunition for second guessing the Fed’s next likely interest rate move and affect the direction in which equity and precious metals prices may progress.

We suspect Thursday’s CPI data may well again be largely inconclusive, though, with regard to whether inflation has yet peaked. Inflation is likely still to remain higher than the Fed would like regardless, although whether it may come down sufficiently enough, if at all, to justify a reduction in the Fed’s aggressive rate increase programme remains to be seen. But even a reduction to a 50 basis point rate increase will leave year end rates at an eye-watering 4.25- 4.5%, and probably 4.75-5.0% by end Q1 next year, which will certainly be a dampener on corporate earnings in any case.

Thus the recent late recovery in equity prices on Friday, in a volatile day’s trading, is to our minds, unjustified. We suspect further falls are in the pipeline as GDP again drifts into negative territory quite probably before the end of the current year, and almost certainly in 2023, and a possibly extended period of recession begins to take hold.

We suspect the U.S. mid-term elections this week may well make life more difficult for the Biden administration and the U.S. dollar will suffer to the benefit of gold and silver. The UK and Europe are also heading for even deeper economic troubles than the U.S. which could counter the dollar’s comparative fall to an extent, though, but perhaps also help bring home the perceived benefits of safe haven investments. $1,700 gold or higher before the year’s end certainly no longer looks unlikely, and the way markets have been behaving recently a considerably higher level cannot be considered impossible. But markets have been, to say the least, unpredictable for most of the current year and with possible geopolitical or geo-economic shocks potentially continuing to build up, anything could happen.

John Williams of U.S. site Shadowstats fame reckons the Fed’s ongoing series of rate hikes, even if future ones are going to be at a slightly reduced level, are all designed to intensify an already ongoing and rapidly deepening, but not yet formally recognised, recession. Or perhaps even an unfolding depression, with purported expectations of killing extraordinary economic inflation pressures, which he considers are monetary by nature. With headline inflation driven by explosive money supply growth and various pandemic issues, not by the Fed’s “overheating” economy scapegoat, the U.S. economy already is in what should become recognised as a deepening recession, and that applies to much of the rest of the world too. Hold on tight for a bumpy ride ahead.

06 Nov 2022

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Agnico Eagle just could not let GoldFields have the remaining stub of Malartic.

(GATA)

Gold Fields target Yamana catches eyes of Agnico Eagle and Pan American

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-11-04 18:31Section: Daily Dispatches

By Helen Reid and Mrinalika Roy
Reuters
Friday, November 4, 2022

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.and Pan American Silver Corp swooped in Friday with a joint bid for Yamana Gold in an attempt to scupper Gold Fields’ planned acquisition of the Canada-listed gold miner.

The cash and stock offer, valuing Yamana at around $4.8 billion, would see Agnico and Pan American split Yamana’s mines between them. Yamana shareholders would receive $1.0406 in cash, 0.0376 of an Agnico Share, and 0.1598 of a Pan American Share for each share held.

South Africa’s Gold Fields had agreed to take over Yamana in an all-stock deal valuing it at $6.7 billion in May.

But a slump in its shares after the deal was announced dented the valuation and at Thursday’s close the all-stock offer valued Yamana at just north of $4 billion.

Yamana, whose shares were up 15% after news of the rival bid, said it had informed Gold Fields that the new offer was a “superior proposal.” Gold Fields has five business days to make a new offer should it wish to. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://tinyurl.com/4ds5u8ya

end

It seems that the World Gold Council’s duty of reporting official gold holdings of nations has gone array

(Ronan Manly)

Ronan Manly: This week’s central bank gold data from World Gold Council was just made up

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-11-04 21:37Section: Daily Dispatches

9:39p ET Friday, November 4, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold market analyst Ronan Manly reveals tonight that most of the record gold buying by central banks that was reported this week by the World Gold Council cannot be documented or even reliably attributed. Rather, Manly finds, almost 78% of the central bank gold buying claimed by the gold council is just the estimate of a mysterious council consultant, unsupported by any official data. 

Of course, Manly adds, financial news services, including Bloomberg and Reuters, reported the gold council’s claim without any scrutiny.

Manly concludes: “Why does the Gold Establishment not want a light shone on the central bank gold world and why are they protecting the secrecy? Equally, why do the large financial media organizations, such as Bloomberg, never want to investigate the central bank gold market? 

“If this was the international oil market, they’d be all over OPEC and the producers and the industry with a huge number of reporters and journalists doing an extensive investigation.”

Manly’s report is headlined “Gold Establishment Supports Central Bank Secrecy Instead of Exposing It” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/gold-establishment-supports-central-bank-secrecy-instead-of-exposing-it/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Craig Hemke is noticing what we are seeing:  huge declines in the comex silver vaults  (as well as Gold vaults)

(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Watch the Comex silver vaults

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-11-06 19:06Section: Daily Dispatches

7:06p ET Sunday, November 6, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Declining silver vault inventories, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes this week at Sprott Money, could actually mean something for the price of the metal this time.

Hemke concludes: “So look sharp, pay attention, and keep an eye on the silver market in the months ahead. The year 2023 was already shaping up to be interesting and volatile for the precious metals. Any physical supply shortages, which then lead to a disruption in the fractional-reserve and digital-derivative pricing scheme, could make the year historic and memorable as well.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “The Comex Silver Vaults” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/The-COMEX-Silver-Vaults-November-04-2022

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES:

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.2282 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.2319

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.02 PTS OR  0.23%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 434.37 OR 2.69% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 327.90 PTS OR 1.21%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL  GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  110.39/Euro RISES TO 0.9978

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.248!!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 146.72/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP-//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.272%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.421%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.325%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.709//

3j Gold at $1675.40//silver at: 20.65  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 49/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 61.09//

3m oil into the 92 dollar handle for WTI and  98 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 146.72DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9898– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9877well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.138% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.218% DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,61…GETTTING DANGEROUS

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.579%

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Reverse Sharp Early Losses To Trade Near Session Highs Ahead Of Midterms

MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 08:09 AM

This morning’s price action has a whiff of what happened two weeks ago when a relentless barrage of bad earnings reports by tech giants propelled stocks higher during the latest bear market meltup, amid speculation the worst news is priced in. Well, after last week’s FOMC mauling, risk has once again started to meltup following Friday’s stark divergence between the “good” payrolls number and “catastrophic” employment data, sending stocks sharply higher and the dollar sliding.

And while some may have expected the selling to return after Sunday’s latest cut to high end iPhone 14 shipping forecasts, which Apple blamed on China but which appears to have been driven as much by a decline in demand and sent AAPL shares down 2%, this morning US stock futures have reversed earlier losses of more than 1% and looking to extend Friday’s rebound, as investor attention turns to the latest inflation report and the midterm elections later this week. At 7:30am ET, contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.4% after earlier sliding as much as 1.3% as Chinese officials reiterated their intention to “unswervingly” stick to a Covid Zero approach; S&P 500 futures also reversed early declines to rise 0.4%. The benchmark had snapped a four-day slump on Friday following a mixed jobs report. The dollar reversed earlier gains; while Monday’s partial gains in Treasuries were underpinned by a 4-basis point drop in the 10-year yield. The two-year rate, more sensitive to monetary policy, remained higher around the 4.68% level.

Among individual movers in premarket trading, Facebook parent Meta (which really should change its name back already) rose following a report that it is planning to start cutting thousands of jobs this week, about a week after we said it should do that immediately.

As noted above, Apple dropped after the company reduced the outlook for shipments of its latest premium iPhone due to China lockdowns. Chinese stocks listed in the US are on track to extend their rally to a fifth day even even though health authorities repeated their strict adherence to the country’s Covid Zero policies. Alibaba rose 1.3% in premarket trading, JD.com +1.4%, Baidu +2.1%, Li Auto +3.1%, XPeng +5.1%. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

  • Peabody Energy shares rise as much a 6% in premarket trading, after the US coal miner and Australia’s Coronado Global Resources ended merger talks.
  • Activision Blizzard shares fall 0.8% in US premarket trading after a NY Post report that Microsoft’s takeover of the entertainment software firm was facing heightened scrutiny from regulators, with some Activision insiders fretting that the transaction could crumble.
  • Redfin shares slide 8% as Oppenheimer cut the real estate brokerage to underperform, saying its core business model is “fundamentally flawed,” and putting a street-low $1.30 PT on the stock.
  • Keep an eye on Estee Lauder (EL US) as the stock was downgraded to hold from buy at Berenberg, which also cuts its price target, saying the cosmetics maker lacks visibility on a potential recovery.
  • Keep an eye on Ruth’s Hospitality after the stock was downgraded to market perform from strong buy at Raymond James, with the broker expecting higher inflation to limit earnings per share growth in 2023.

As BBG notes, US equities have tried to recover in the fourth quarter after slumping this year as investors wagered that signs of peaking in inflation would allow the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes. The next clue will come on Thursday, with October’s consumer price index report expected to show a slight cooling in prices from the previous month.

“Markets are essentially in a struggle between people who argue the Fed has hiked rates too much and should pivot and the other group that says inflation needs to be fought harder and the Fed needs to hike more,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor, agreed, saying she expects stock volatility to continue as markets face “an eclectic mix of drivers,” including the midterm elections on Tuesday.

Morgan Stanley’s in house permabear Mike Wilson turned even more bullish on Monday saying investors should stay bullish on equities ahead of the midterms. Polls pointing to Republicans winning at least one chamber of Congress provide a potential catalyst for lower bond yields and higher equity prices, which would be enough to keep the bear-market rally going, they said. Meanwhile, the permabulls at JPMorgan said the same thing they have said since Jan 1 – buy the dip because a potential peak in bond yields and “very downbeat” sentiment may support stocks.

The bout of optimism outweighs, for the moment, the Federal Reserve’s resolute campaign against price surges, signs of stress in US corporate performance and China’s announcement it will “unswervingly” adhere to current Covid Zero policy.  But corporate earnings are casting a dampener on sentiment as margins reel from the impact of high inflation. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists lowered their S&P 500 profit estimates for each year until 2024, saying margin contraction in the third quarter signals more pain ahead.

European stocks and US futures pare earlier declines as dollar extends declines beyond Friday’s lows. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.5%. Travel, miners and autos are the strongest performing sectors in Europe. DAX outperforms peers, adding 0.7%, FTSE 100 is flat, underperforming peers. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Telecom Italia rises as much as 8.2% to its highest intraday level since mid August following a report that Vivendi, the biggest shareholder in the phone operator, is open to discussions with the Italian government on creating a single land-line phone network.
  • Ryanair shares rise as much as 4.9% as the low-cost airline flagged strong bookings through next summer, shrugging off impact from a potential recession in Europe.
  • PostNL rises as much as 5.4% after the company notes that 4Q will be its strongest quarter, as it takes mitigating actions amid a macroeconomic environment that has deteriorated.
  • Flutter Entertainment shares rise as much as 5.4% in Dublin after an arbitrator told Fox Corp. that exercising its option to acquire an 18.6% stake in sports-betting giant FanDuel, which is majority owned by Flutter, would cost it at least $3.72b.
  • GSK falls as much as 3.3% after its antibody blood cancer drug Blenrep failed its confirmatory phase 3 trial. Citi says the news is likely to result in the drug being taken off the market in the US and the EU, expressing “minimal” expectations for commercial success going ahead.
  • Novozymes falls as much as 3.3% as Credit Suisse flags lower earnings and peer multiples for the world’s largest maker of industrial enzymes.
  • UniCredit shares declined as much as 4.2% following a FT report on Nov. 6 that the ECB had clashed with the Italian lender over its distribution plans and its Russia presence. Shares were 3% down in early trading Monday, the worst performer on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index.
  • Kingfisher falls as much as 3.6% as it was cut to neutral from outperform and PT trimmed to 247p from 305p at Credit Suisse on macro risks facing the DIY retailer.

Earlier in the session, Asia stocks climbed as traders snapped up Chinese stocks in hopes of an eventual reopening and as US bond yields slipped. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.8% to the highest in a month, led by materials and technology stocks. China’s tech shares extended their rally from Friday, which was spurred by reported progress in efforts to prevent the delisting of Chinese companies from US bourses.  Hong Kong topped gains in the region even though Chinese officials stuck to their Covid Zero approach over the weekend, as investors said extreme pessimism had already been priced into Greater China markets. Most gauges across Asia also advanced after 10-year Treasury yields edged lower. Supporting sentiment, the dollar slipped after a bigger-than-expected increase in the US unemployment rate spurred hope the Federal Reserve may eventually slow the pace of rate hikes. Vietnam’s shares, however, fell to their lowest in two years.

Japanese stocks climbed, as strong corporate earnings boosted investor sentiment while the market continued to look for clues on when the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening may subside. The Topix rose 1% to close at 1,934.09, while the Nikkei advanced 1.2% to 27,527.64. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 1.9%. Out of 2,165 stocks in the index, 1,520 rose and 558 fell, while 87 were unchanged. “Overall there there are more upward revisions,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona Asset Management, regarding recent earnings reports. “The market is still looking six months to a year ahead, so the focus is gradually shifting” to results for the next fiscal year.

Australian stocks also extended gains with the S&P/ASX 200 index rising 0.6% to close at 6,933.70, extending gains for a second session, boosted by an advance in mining and energy shares.  The mining sector climbed to the highest in a month, after tracking Friday’s gains in commodity prices as US jobs data, a softer dollar and China reopening hopes boosted materials last week. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to 11,290.34.

Investors will focus on whether the subtle relaxation of China’s Covid Zero policy will gather momentum in the coming weeks, Saxo Capital Markets strategists wrote in a note. “This will be key not just for mainland and HK markets, but also for commodity markets.” Last week’s rally in Chinese shares, the biggest in years, helped lift Asia’s equity benchmark by more than 6% from an October trough. Whether that trend will continue depends on China’s tone on lockdowns and vaccinations. Investors will also keep an eye on US inflation data expected on Thursday

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung to a 0.3% loss after earlier rising by as much as 0.5%, as the greenback fell against most of its Group-of-10 peers. NZD and AUD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, SEK and GBP outperform.

  • The euro rose above parity before paring gains. European bond yields were mostly lower as pricing for central major bank hikes were pared. Bund yields fell by up to 3bps while Italian yields fell by up to 5bps
  • The pound led G-10 gains after erasing earlier losses against the dollar. Gilt yields fell on the belly of the curve. The BOE is set to sell medium-maturity gilts held under its asset purchase facility later Monday. UK house prices fell at the sharpest pace in almost two years as rising mortgage rates and a gloomy outlook for the economy depressed demand
  • The New Zealand and Australian dollars pared losses after earlier dropping by more than 1% in a possible reflection of disappointment over the prospects of China easing its Covid-Zero stance
  • The yen pared losses as the the dollar lost traction in early European trading

In rates, Treasuries are mixed with the curve flatter into early US session as front-end cheapens led by losses in front-end of the German curve. Stocks rally and dollar extends Friday’s slide. 10-year yields are around 4.13%, richer by ~3bp on the day, outperforming bunds and gilts by 1bp and 4bp in the sector; long-end gains flatten 2s10s by 4bp, 5s30s by 3bp. Dollar issuance slate empty so far; desks expect $25b to $30b of new debt this week, front- loaded ahead of CPI and Friday’s market close for US Veterans Day. Bunds, gilts and USTs 10-year yields all decline about 1 basis point as bonds pare losses. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing 3.1bps to 213.4bps.

In commodities, WTI trades within Friday’s range, falling 0.6% to near $92; WTI and Brent futures have trimmed losses seen in wake of China sticking to its COVID policy over the weekend. Kuwait appointed Ahmed Jaber al-Aydan as the new CEO of Kuwait Oil Company and Wadha al-Khateeb as CEO of Kuwait National Petroleum Company, while new leaders were also appointed for Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company and other state companies in the energy sector, according to Reuters. Kuwait’s KPC aims to export its first oil product cargo from its 615k Al Zour refinery by mid-November, according to Reuters sources. Spot gold reversed earlier losses and climbed back above USD 1,675/oz after printing a base at around USD 1,665/oz earlier today. Base metals have also trimmed earlier losses amid the improvement in risk appetite and decline in the Buck, with 3M LME copper re-eyeing USD 8,000/t to the upside after forfeiting the level overnight.

Bitcoin is under modest pressure though pivots the mid-point of a sub-USD 1/k range which itself is a similar magnitude above the USD 20k mark.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,788.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 418.47
  • MXAP up 1.7% to 142.45
  • MXAPJ up 1.8% to 459.88
  • Nikkei up 1.2% to 27,527.64
  • Topix up 1.0% to 1,934.09
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.7% to 16,595.91
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,077.82
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 61,153.50
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,933.71
  • Kospi up 1.0% to 2,371.79
  • German 10Y yield down 0.7% to 2.28%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $0.9986
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $98.24/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,679.09
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.35% to 110.49

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Federal Reserve “hasn’t accomplished anything” in loosening the US labor market even after four consecutive 75-basis-point hikes, former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said
  • The ECB should keep raising interest rates, even at a reduced pace, until inflation excluding energy and food prices starts to ease, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said
  • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is drawing up plans for tax increases and public spending cuts worth up to £54bn a year to fill the black hole in the UK public finances, according to allies of Britain’s chancellor, the FT reported
  • European households are paying more than ever for their electricity and natural gas, even as governments spend billions to shield consumers from the energy crisis
  • China’s total debt as a percentage of gross domestic product climbed to new record high of 272.1% in the third quarter, surpassing the previous record of 271% just a quarter ago, data compiled by Bloomberg showed
  • The BOJ can end up holding more than 100% of benchmark debt as its ownership doesn’t fall even when it sells the securities to market participants using repurchase agreements
  • President Joe Biden’s national security adviser and senior Kremlin aides have held private talks in recent months to reduce the risk of a broader conflict over Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported. A peace settlement wasn’t a goal of the discussions, according to the report

APAC stocks mostly gained as investors continued to pile on the reopening bets despite China ‘unswervingly’ maintaining its COVID approach, while the region also shrugged off disappointing Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was higher as strength in the commodity-related and consumer sectors atoned for the weakness in tech and financials with the latter not helped by Westpac’s earnings which showed a decline in cash profit and revenue. Nikkei 225 strengthened from the open and climbed above the 27,500 level with the index unfazed by the weak earnings releases from the likes of Sharp and SoftBank Corp. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp recovered from opening losses in which the Hong Kong benchmark briefly surged by more than 3% amid strength in property names and a continued tech rally, while the mainland index was less decisive amid disappointing Chinese trade data and after China stuck to its strict COVID policy, as well as reported its largest number of daily infections in 6 months.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

  • China health commission spokesman said China will not waver in preventing a COVID rebound and in the dynamic clearing of cases as soon as they emerge, while it did not make adjustments to anti-COVID protocols and a China disease control official said they are to guide localities to continue strengthening COVID vaccination of the elderly. Furthermore, a Peking University infectious disease expert said the current prevention strategy is still able to control COVID despite the high transmissibility of variants and asymptomatic carriers, although an Education Ministry official noted that it is necessary to prevent excessive epidemic prevention and not add extra layers of measures, according to Reuters.
  • Beijing City is set to improve COVID rules for people entering the city, but vows to stick to COVID-Zero policy, according to a Beijing Official cited by Bloomberg.
  • Haizhu district of Guangzhou, China is to extend COVID restrictionsuntil November 11th, via Bloomberg.
  •  
  • China’s Zhengzhou city is taking steps to improve the precision of epidemic control measures after being criticised for a one size fits all approach and the city government apologised for the problems in the latest COVID fight, while it vowed to implement social management and control measures in a precise manner to avoid simply locking down communities.
  • China’s new daily COVID-19 cases were rose to the highest in six months with the country reporting 5,436 new cases on Sunday, according to Bloomberg.
  • PBoC Deputy Governor Fan Yifei, who is a key driver of the digital yuan transition, was detained for investigation and is suspected of serious violations of discipline and law, according to SCMP.
  • Japan’s government releases a statement on the US inflation Reduction Act in which it stated that the requirement of EV tax credits is not consistent with the US and Japanese governments’ shared policy to work with allies and like-minded partners to build resilient supply chains. Japan added that if the IRA would be implemented as it is to provide discriminatory incentives, it is possible that Japanese automakers will hesitate to make further investments towards the electrification of vehicles, according to Reuters.
  • Japan is reportedly to fund its extra budget with bond issuance of JPY 22.9tln, via Bloomberg citing documents.

Top Asian News

Major bourses in Europe kicked off the session with mild losses across the board but the downside faded within the first hour of trade. Sectors are mostly firmer and have experienced a turnaround since the cash open – with defensives now largely towards the bottom of the bunch. US equity futures have also moved into the green after posting mild losses overnight and in the run-up to the European cash open. IATA September update: Total Traffic +57% YY; International Traffic +122% YY. All markets reported strong growth, led by APAC.

Top European News

  • UK PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt are to announce a stealth tax raid on pensions later this month, according to The Telegraph. It was also reported the Chancellor is set to outline GBP 60bln in tax and spending cuts with early drafts of the autumn statement containing plans for up to GBP 35bln of spending cuts and GBP up to GBP 25bln on tax increases, according to The Guardian.
  • UK PM Sunak warned that people cannot expect the state to “fix every problem” and vowed to regain the trust of voters by being honest about the scale of the economic difficulties ahead, according to The Times.
  • UK PM Sunak is reportedly under pressure regarding bullying claims concerning one of his closest political allies with the opposition Labour party calling for an independent investigation of allegations of bullying by Sir Gavin Williamson who was appointed as Minister of State without Portfolio last month, according to FT.
  • UK stamp duty in Q3 rose to a record high of GBP 3.6bln although property market analysts warned the trend will reverse as house prices decline, according to FT.
  • UK steel industry warned that it needs state aid to survive a green transition with two large producers calling for the government to match the support offered to suppliers across Europe, according to FT.
  • Traders have pointed to a squeeze in the “repo” market and short-dated gilts, according to The Times and The Telegraph.
  • ECB and UniCredit (UCG IM) are reported to clash regarding capital plans and Russia presence with tensions building amid the Italian lender’s aggressive strategy to overhaul lending operations, according to FT.
  • Germany is to allocate EUR 83.3bln or 42% of a major protection scheme that was launched in October to finance a cap on gas and power prices next year, according to Reuters.
  • ECB’s Villeroy said shouldn’t stop rate hikes as long as underlying inflation has not clearly peaked, adds we are not far from the neutral rate, beyond which the hiking pace could be more flexible and slower, according to Irish Times.

FX

  • DXY has faded significantly from an initial rebound to 111.28 highs; however, this was shortlived amid renewed China/COVID reopening chatter, in its wake the DXY has slipped to a 110.33 low.
  • Despite this, performance for peers is fairly mixed with APAC FX lagging and European FX benefitting from the USD moves.
  • At the top-end, Cable has moved to within circa. 30pips of the 1.15 mark with EUR similarly bid, though has failed to sustain brief momentum above parity.
  • Antipodeans, CAD and JPY are modestly pressured/narrowly mixed against the USD, and have been fairly choppy within 0.6404-77, 1.3466 to 1.3554 & 147.57-146.58 parameters for the AUD, CAD & JPY respectively.

Fixed Income

  • Core counterparts have spent the morning under pressure amid the increasingly constructive risk tone; however, this has eased and USTs are now essentially unchanged.
  • In the EZ, Bunds have seemingly derived encouragement from the 136.00 handle holding and have since breached 137.00.
  • Gilts have been the slim outperformer; however, as the clock ticks down to the latest QT operation in the medium-term, this has eased to near unchanged around 101.30

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent futures have trimmed losses seen in wake of China sticking to its COVID policy over the weekend.
  • Kuwait appointed Ahmed Jaber al-Aydan as the new CEO of Kuwait Oil Company and Wadha al-Khateeb as CEO of Kuwait National Petroleum Company, while new leaders were also appointed for Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company and other state companies in the energy sector, according to Reuters.
  • Kuwait’s KPC aims to export its first oil product cargo from its 615k Al Zour refinery by mid-November, according to Reuters sources.
  • Spot gold reversed earlier losses and climbed back above USD 1,675/oz after printing a base at around USD 1,665/oz earlier today.
  • Base metals have also trimmed earlier losses amid the improvement in risk appetite and decline in the Buck, with 3M LME copper re-eyeing USD 8,000/t to the upside after forfeiting the level overnight.

Geopolitical

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian forces are suffering serious losses in the east and Russia is readying new attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy, according to Reuters. There were also separate reports that Zelensky said Iran lied about sending a limited number of drones to Russia and he noted that Kyiv forces were shooting down at least 10 of them daily.
  • Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv have begun planning for a complete blackout which would require the evacuation of 3mln residents and are establishing 1,000 heating centres although it was noted that the situation was currently manageable, according to NYT.
  • Ukrainian forces damaged the Russian-held Nova Kakhova dam in a HIMARS strike, according to an emergency services representative cited by TASS.
  • US National Security Adviser Sullivan held confidential discussions with Russian counterparts in recent months in an effort to reduce the risk of a broader conflict over Ukraine and to warn about the use of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, according to WSJ. On this, the Kremlin declined to comment.
  • China’s President Xi to visit Saudi Arabia before end-2022, via WSJ; tentatively scheduled for the second week of December.

US Event Calendar

  • 15:00: Sept. Consumer Credit, est. $30b, prior $32.2b

Central Banks

  • 15:40: Fed’s Collins and Mester Speak at Women in Economics…
  • 18:00: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at Event on Inflation

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The warm weather here in Europe continues to be great news for energy storage preservation across the continent. However, there has been one big causality. Me! Over the weekend I had horrible hay fever. I’ve no idea what caused it, but I couldn’t stop sneezing in a manner only consistent with an allergy. I usually get it bad from late January to April but this is the first time ever in November. If anyone has had similar experiences, please let me know so we can swap notes and solutions/remedies.

As I splutter into a new week, it feels odd to say that US mid-terms (tomorrow) might be more important than US CPI (Thursday), so I won’t! However, history suggests the mid-terms are a big influence on markets as they always seem to rally once mid-terms (or Presidential elections) are out the way. Although regular readers should be in little doubt that my base case is that 2023 is going to be a bad year for the global economy and risk, in every 12-month period post mid-terms over the last century, the equity market has always gone up with the inflexion point being immediately after mid-terms.

While I think the US recession of 2023 will overpower that historical track record, Tuesday being out the way could be a catalyst for a more positive short-term period. So a big moment. Before we preview these two events in more detail, elsewhere in the US this week the highlight will probably be the University of Michigan survey out on Friday with the latest inflation expectations series. It’s a light week for data outside of that. There is plenty of Fed speak so see that in our day-by-day calendar at the end as usual. You’ll also see from that that Lagarde speaks today.

Other important data releases in other parts of the globe will feature trade balances for key global economies as well as CPI and PPI data for China (Wednesday). Here in Europe, GDP from the UK (Friday) and industrial production data from Germany (today) will be in focus. In earnings, Berkshire Hathaway, Disney, Occidental, adidas and BioNTech will be among the companies reporting. Elsewhere, COP27 kicked off yesterday so we’ll likely see plenty of headlines from that.

Asian equity markets are rallying this morning following the broadly positive cues from global markets on Friday. Across the region, the Hang Seng (+3.42%) is outperforming, after quickly reversing its morning losses, followed by the Nikkei (+1.32%) and the KOSPI (+1.00%). Elsewhere, mainland Chinese equities are gaining traction with the Shanghai Composite (+0.46%) and the CSI (+0.49%) both in the green after trading broadly lower in early trade as Chinese health officials indicated that it would stick to its strict zero-Covid policy (more below). In overnight trading, US stock futures are slightly lower with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.17%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.25%) both dipping.

Early morning data showed that China exports as well as imports unexpectedly contracted simultaneously for the first time since May 2020 as elevated inflation and rising interest rates hurt global demand. Outbound shipments declined (-0.3% y/y) in October (v/s +4.5% expected) after a +5.7% increase in September while inbound shipments fell (-0.7% y/y) following a +0.3% gain in the previous month. Meanwhile, the overall trade surplus slightly widened to +$85.15 billion (v/s +$84.74 billion in September, but missing a forecast of $95.97 billion).

Over the weekend, the Chinese government reiterated that they would stick “unswervingly” to their ‘zero-tolerance Covid’ strategy, following several days of speculation to the contrary. Staying on China, Apple has warned that it is anticipating lower shipments of its high-end iPhone 14 models with customers experiencing longer wait times because of Covid-19 restrictions at its primary assembly plant in Zhengzhou, thus dampening the company’s sales outlook for the year-end holiday season. There also seems to be a softer demand element to it too.

Lastly, on overnight stories, the WSJ has reported that the US national security advisor has been having secret talks with senior Kremlin officials in recent months to try to ensure that the conflict doesn’t move up to the next level. There is no suggestion that a route to peace has been discussed but it shows there are high level diplomatic discussions though.

Onto more details of this week now. Looking first at tomorrow’s midterms, our economists’ base case is that Republicans will take the House but Democrats will maintain their slim majority in the Senate, although the latter is a close call. It is highly unlikely that either party will achieve a two-thirds majority in Congress, thus effectively maintaining President Biden’s veto power. Currently, FiveThirtyEight’s model gives the Republicans a 54% chance of winning the Senate and 82% for the House. Their chance of winning both is 53%. See our economist’s midterms preview here. They will be hosting a zoom webinar on Wednesday to review the results and implications for the economic outlook. To register please click here.

With regards to US CPI on Thursday, our economists believe energy will boost the headline (DB forecast at +0.62% vs. +0.39% previously. Consensus +0.6%). Last month core surprised on the upside (+0.6% MoM, vs +0.4% consensus) so this month’s reading will get the most focus (DB at +0.46% vs. +0.58% previously. Consensus +0.5%). In terms of YoY, DB expect headline to dip -0.2pp and core -0.1pp to 8.0% (consensus 7.9%) and 6.5%, respectively.

In terms of corporate earnings, there will be a couple of corporate heavyweights reporting this week even with around 85% of the S&P 500 index having now released Q3 results. The highlights are likely Disney and Occidental (tomorrow) but we also have Activision Blizzard, Lyft (today) and Roblox (Wednesday) in tech and BioNTech (today), adidas (Wednesday), AstraZeneca (Thursday) and SoftBank (Friday) elsewhere.

Recapping last week now and the dovish pivot trade pivoted one way and the other across the week but ultimately Powell’s FOMC press conference put the hawks back in the ascendency.

Treasury yields moved higher and a fresh round of curve flattening materialised. 2yr Treasury yields gained +24.4bps over the week (-5.5bps Friday) while 10yr yields climbed +14.6bps (+1.2bps Friday). Adding evidence to Chair Powell’s main arguments, the employment situation report out of the US on Friday painted a still robust picture of the US labour market, where +261k jobs were added (vs. +193k expected), while average hourly earnings ticked up to +0.4% (vs. +0.3%). Labour force participation tightened, dropping to 62.2% (vs. 62.3%), while unemployment actually increased slightly to a still-tight 3.7% (vs. 3.6%). Elsewhere, the BoE painted a much more dovish outlook as they hiked 75bps, which led to a much different curve shape, as 2yr gilt yields fell -19.1bps (-2.5bps Friday) and 10yr yields were ‘only’ +5.9bps higher (+1.6bps Friday). The bund curve split the difference between the US and UK moves and moved in parallel, with 2yrs climbing +18.9bps (+4.3bps Friday) and 10yrs +19.2bps higher (+5.0bps Friday).

The pivot unwind trade showed up in equity prices, too, where the S&P 500 tumbled -3.34% (+1.36% Friday) and the tech-heavy NASDAQ bore the brunt of a hawkish Chair by falling -5.65% (+1.28% Friday). European equities, meanwhile, managed to finish up over the week, with the STOXX 600 gaining +1.51% (+1.81% Friday) and the DAX +1.63% higher (+2.51% Friday). As you can see, a lot of those gains took place on Friday following headlines that China was considering easing its Covid restrictions, potentially unleashing a major engine of global growth. In turn, Brent crude oil prices also rallied hard to finish the week +3.11% (+4.12% Friday). Over the week, the Shanghai Composite climbed +5.31%, with the Hang Seng +8.73%.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Sentiment improved with focus on China’s COVID updates; Apple trimmed its iPhone output forecast – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 06:33 AM

  • Major bourses in Europe kicked off the session with mild losses across the board, but have since moved firmly into the green amid China-COVID focus
  • Amidst this, the DXY has faded significantly from an initial rebound to 111.28 highs; currently, holding around 110.30 to the mixed benefit of peers
  • Core counterparts have spent the morning under pressure amid the increasingly constructive risk tone; however, this has eased and USTs are now essentially unchanged.
  • WTI and Brent futures have trimmed losses seen in wake of China sticking to its COVID policy over the weekend.
  • AAPL has trimmed its iPhone output forecast amid cooling demand, via BBG, while Foxconn restrictions impact 14 Pro/Max assembly
  • Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Barkin, Mester & Collins, UK QT (medium-term).
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • Major bourses in Europe kicked off the session with mild losses across the board but the downside faded within the first hour of trade.
  • Sectors are mostly firmer and have experienced a turnaround since the cash open – with defensives now largely towards the bottom of the bunch.
  • US equity futures have also moved into the green after posting mild losses overnight and in the run-up to the European cash open.
  • IATA September update: Total Traffic +57% YY; International Traffic +122% YY. All markets reported strong growth, led by APAC.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY has faded significantly from an initial rebound to 111.28 highs; however, this was shortlived amid renewed China/COVID reopening chatter, in its wake the DXY has slipped to a 110.33 low.
  • Despite this, performance for peers is fairly mixed with APAC FX lagging and European FX benefitting from the USD moves.
  • At the top-end, Cable has moved to within circa. 30pips of the 1.15 mark with EUR similarly bid, though has failed to sustain brief momentum above parity.
  • AntipodeansCAD and JPY are modestly pressured/narrowly mixed against the USD, and have been fairly choppy within 0.6404-77, 1.3466 to 1.3554 & 147.57-146.58 parameters for the AUD, CAD & JPY respectively.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Core counterparts have spent the morning under pressure amid the increasingly constructive risk tone; however, this has eased and USTs are now essentially unchanged.
  • In the EZ, Bunds have seemingly derived encouragement from the 136.00 handle holding and have since breached 137.00.
  • Gilts have been the slim outperformer; however, as the clock ticks down to the latest QT operation in the medium-term, this has eased to near unchanged around 101.30
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent futures have trimmed losses seen in wake of China sticking to its COVID policy over the weekend.
  • Kuwait appointed Ahmed Jaber al-Aydan as the new CEO of Kuwait Oil Company and Wadha al-Khateeb as CEO of Kuwait National Petroleum Company, while new leaders were also appointed for Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company and other state companies in the energy sector, according to Reuters.
  • Kuwait’s KPC aims to export its first oil product cargo from its 615k Al Zour refinery by mid-November, according to Reuters sources.
  • Spot gold reversed earlier losses and climbed back above USD 1,675/oz after printing a base at around USD 1,665/oz earlier today.
  • Base metals have also trimmed earlier losses amid the improvement in risk appetite and decline in the Buck, with 3M LME copper re-eyeing USD 8,000/t to the upside after forfeiting the level overnight.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • UK PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt are to announce a stealth tax raid on pensions later this month, according to The Telegraph. It was also reported the Chancellor is set to outline GBP 60bln in tax and spending cuts with early drafts of the autumn statement containing plans for up to GBP 35bln of spending cuts and GBP up to GBP 25bln on tax increases, according to The Guardian.
  • UK PM Sunak warned that people cannot expect the state to “fix every problem” and vowed to regain the trust of voters by being honest about the scale of the economic difficulties ahead, according to The Times.
  • UK PM Sunak is reportedly under pressure regarding bullying claims concerning one of his closest political allies with the opposition Labour party calling for an independent investigation of allegations of bullying by Sir Gavin Williamson who was appointed as Minister of State without Portfolio last month, according to FT.
  • UK stamp duty in Q3 rose to a record high of GBP 3.6bln although property market analysts warned the trend will reverse as house prices decline, according to FT.
  • UK steel industry warned that it needs state aid to survive a green transition with two large producers calling for the government to match the support offered to suppliers across Europe, according to FT.
  • Traders have pointed to a squeeze in the “repo” market and short-dated gilts, according to The Times and The Telegraph.
  • ECB and UniCredit (UCG IM) are reported to clash regarding capital plans and Russia presence with tensions building amid the Italian lender’s aggressive strategy to overhaul lending operations, according to FT.
  • Germany is to allocate EUR 83.3bln or 42% of a major protection scheme that was launched in October to finance a cap on gas and power prices next year, according to Reuters.
  • ECB’s Villeroy said shouldn’t stop rate hikes as long as underlying inflation has not clearly peaked, adds we are not far from the neutral rate, beyond which the hiking pace could be more flexible and slower, according to Irish Times.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • German Industrial Output MM (Sep) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.8%, Rev. -1.2%)
  • UK Halifax House Prices MM (Oct) -0.4% (Prev. -0.1%)
  • EZ S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 44.9 (Prev. 45.3)
  • EZ Sentix Index* (Nov) -30.9 vs. Exp. -35.0 (Prev. -38.3)

NOTABLE US HEADLINE

  • IAM union representing around 4,900 workers rail workers said members narrowly ratified the tentative contract agreement reached in mid-December with US freight railroads, according to Reuters.
  • Apple (AAPL) trimmed its new iPhone output forecast by 3mln units as demand cools, according to Bloomberg. Apple said COVID-19 restrictions temporarily impacted its primary iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max assembly facility in Zhengzhou, China, with the facility operating at a significantly reduced capacity, while it added that customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products, according to Reuters.
  • Subsequently, Foxconn (2317 TT) is reportedly aiming to resume full production at its Zhengzhou plant by the second half of November, according to Reuters sources.
  • Meta (META) is preparing to notify employees of mass layoffs this week, according to WSJ.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is under modest pressure though pivots the mid-point of a sub-USD 1/k range which itself is a similar magnitude above the USD 20k mark.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian forces are suffering serious losses in the east and Russia is readying new attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy, according to Reuters. There were also separate reports that Zelensky said Iran lied about sending a limited number of drones to Russia and he noted that Kyiv forces were shooting down at least 10 of them daily.
  • Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv have begun planning for a complete blackout which would require the evacuation of 3mln residents and are establishing 1,000 heating centres although it was noted that the situation was currently manageable, according to NYT.
  • Ukrainian forces damaged the Russian-held Nova Kakhova dam in a HIMARS strike, according to an emergency services representative cited by TASS.
  • US National Security Adviser Sullivan held confidential discussions with Russian counterparts in recent months in an effort to reduce the risk of a broader conflict over Ukraine and to warn about the use of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, according to WSJ. On this, the Kremlin declined to comment.
  • China’s President Xi to visit Saudi Arabia before end-2022, via WSJ; tentatively scheduled for the second week of December.

OTHER

  • Sweden’s new centre-right government said it will distance itself from several Kurdish groups as it seeks to win Turkish support for the bid to join NATO, according to FT.
  • Russian jets conducted a strike in Syria’s Idlib which killed at least 9 civilians, according to SCMP citing witnesses and rescuers.
  • Iran successfully tested the first sub-orbital stage of the three-stage Ghaem 100 space launcher, according to IRNA. US State Department spokesperson said that such actions were unhelpful and destabilising, while the official added that the US is concerned by Iran’s continued development of space-launch vehicles which pose a significant proliferation concern, according to Reuters.
  • North Korea fired 4 ballistic missiles into the western sea on Saturday morning which flew about 80 miles and at an altitude of about 12 miles, according to South Korea’s military cited by Yonhap. North Korea said last week’s US-South Korea air drills were an open provocation and a dangerous war drill, while it said its recent military operations were a clear answer to enemies’ provocative military moves and it will continue to respond to anti-North war drills with resolute and overwhelming practical military measures, according to KCNA.
  • Taiwan Defence Ministry said 17 Chinese air force planes crossed the Taiwan Strait median line on Sunday, according to Reuters.
  • China’s Foreign Ministry, on the British Trade Minister Hands’ planned Taiwan visit, says the UK needs to stop any form of official exchanges with Taiwan, via Reuters.
  • German Chancellor Scholz said getting China to openly oppose the use of nuclear weapons over Ukraine was reason enough to travel to Beijing and said that Germany will continue its economic relationship with China but will reduce their dependency, while he said that they need to diversify and do that right away. Furthermore, Scholz said they have to avoid Chinese loans to developing countries triggering a new global financial crisis and talked to the Chinese government regarding that, according to Reuters.
  • China Commerce Ministry said it firmly opposes Canada’s actions to disrupt and block normal business cooperation between companies of both countries in the name of national security after Canada recently ordered 3 Chinese companies to divest their holdings in Canada’s critical minerals. Furthermore, Mofcom urged Canada to take China’s concerns seriously and stop politicising economic and trade issues, while it added that China will take necessary steps to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese firms, according to Reuters.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks mostly gained as investors continued to pile on the reopening bets despite China ‘unswervingly’ maintaining its COVID approach, while the region also shrugged off disappointing Chinese trade data.
  • ASX 200 was higher as strength in the commodity-related and consumer sectors atoned for the weakness in tech and financials with the latter not helped by Westpac’s earnings which showed a decline in cash profit and revenue.
  • Nikkei 225 strengthened from the open and climbed above the 27,500 level with the index unfazed by the weak earnings releases from the likes of Sharp and SoftBank Corp.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp recovered from opening losses in which the Hong Kong benchmark briefly surged by more than 3% amid strength in property names and a continued tech rally, while the mainland index was less decisive amid disappointing Chinese trade data and after China stuck to its strict COVID policy, as well as reported its largest number of daily infections in 6 months.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • China health commission spokesman said China will not waver in preventing a COVID rebound and in the dynamic clearing of cases as soon as they emerge, while it did not make adjustments to anti-COVID protocols and a China disease control official said they are to guide localities to continue strengthening COVID vaccination of the elderly. Furthermore, a Peking University infectious disease expert said the current prevention strategy is still able to control COVID despite the high transmissibility of variants and asymptomatic carriers, although an Education Ministry official noted that it is necessary to prevent excessive epidemic prevention and not add extra layers of measures, according to Reuters.
  • Beijing City is set to improve COVID rules for people entering the city, but vows to stick to COVID-Zero policy, according to a Beijing Official cited by Bloomberg.
  • Haizhu district of Guangzhou, China is to extend COVID restrictionsuntil November 11th, via Bloomberg.
  • China’s Zhengzhou city is taking steps to improve the precision of epidemic control measures after being criticised for a one size fits all approach and the city government apologised for the problems in the latest COVID fight, while it vowed to implement social management and control measures in a precise manner to avoid simply locking down communities.
  • China’s new daily COVID-19 cases were rose to the highest in six months with the country reporting 5,436 new cases on Sunday, according to Bloomberg.
  • PBoC Deputy Governor Fan Yifei, who is a key driver of the digital yuan transition, was detained for investigation and is suspected of serious violations of discipline and law, according to SCMP.
  • Japan’s government releases a statement on the US inflation Reduction Act in which it stated that the requirement of EV tax credits is not consistent with the US and Japanese governments’ shared policy to work with allies and like-minded partners to build resilient supply chains. Japan added that if the IRA would be implemented as it is to provide discriminatory incentives, it is possible that Japanese automakers will hesitate to make further investments towards the electrification of vehicles, according to Reuters.
  • Japan is reportedly to fund its extra budget with bond issuance of JPY 22.9tln, via Bloomberg citing documents.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese Trade Balance (CNY) (Oct) 586.8B vs Exp. 702.9B (Prev. 573.6B)
  • Chinese Exports YY (CNY) (Oct) 7.0% vs Exp. 12.7% (Prev. 10.7%); Imports YY (CNY) (Oct) 6.8% vs Exp. 10.0% (Prev. 5.2%)
  • Chinese Trade Balance USD (Oct) 85.15B vs. Exp. 95.95B (Prev. 84.74B)
  • Chinese Exports YY (USD) (Oct) -0.3% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 5.7%); Imports YY (USD) (Oct) -0.7% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%)

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.02 PTS OR 0.23%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 434.77 OR  2.69%    /The Nikkei closed UP 327.90 OR 1.21%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP  0.56%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7.2282 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 7.2319//    /Oil UP TO 92.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 98.23    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

very worrisome!

(zerohedge)

end

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/RUSSIA

END

3c CHINA

CHINA/ECONOMY

China’s trade unexpectedly shrinks as COVID curbs, global slowdown jolt demand

BEIJING, Nov 7 (Reuters) – China’s exports and imports unexpectedly contracted in October, the first simultaneous slump since May 2020, as a perfect storm of COVID curbs at home and global recession risks dented demand and further darkened the outlook for a struggling economy.

The bleak data highlights the challenge for policymakers in China as they press on with pandemic prevention measures and try to navigate broad pressure from surging inflation, sweeping increases in worldwide interest rates and a global slowdown.

Outbound shipments in October shrank 0.3% from a year earlier, a sharp turnaround from a 5.7% gain in September, official data showed on Monday, and well below analysts’ expectations for a 4.3% increase. It was the worst performance since May 2020.

The data suggests demand remains frail overall, and analysts warn of further gloom for exporters over the coming quarters, heaping more pressure on the country’s manufacturing sector and the world’s second-biggest economy grappling with persistent COVID-19 curbs and protracted property weakness.

Chinese exporters weren’t even able to capitalise on a prolonged weakening in the yuan currency since April and the key year-end shopping season, underlining the broadening strains for consumers and businesses worldwide.

The yuan on Monday eased 0.4% from a more than one-week high against the dollar reached in the previous session, as the weak trade data and Beijing’s vow to continue with its strict zero-COVID strategy hurt sentiment.

“The weak export growth likely reflects both poor external demand as well as the supply disruptions due to COVID outbreaks,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, citing COVID disruptions at a Foxconn factory, a major Apple supplier, as one example.

Apple Inc (AAPL.O) said it expects lower-than-anticipated shipments of high-end iPhone 14 models following a key production cut at the virus-blighted Zhengzhou plant.

“Looking forward, we think exports will fall further over the coming quarters… We think that aggressive financial tightening and the drag on real incomes from high inflation will push the global economy into a recession next year,” said Zichun Huang, economist at Capital Economics.

Growth of auto exports in terms of volume also slowed sharply to 60% year-on-year from 106% in September, according to Reuters calculations based on customs data, reflecting a transition from demand for goods to services in major economies.

Overall exports to China’s major markets of the United States and European Union also slumped in October, off 12.6% and 9% year-on-year, respectively.

DOMESTIC WOES HAMPER GROWTH

Almost three years into the pandemic, China has stuck to a strict COVID-19 containment policy that has exacted a heavy economic toll and caused widespread frustration and fatigue.

Feeble October factory and trade figures suggested the economy is struggling to get out of the mire in the last quarter of 2022, after it reported a faster-than-anticipated rebound in the third quarter.

The Ukraine war, which sparked a surge in already high inflation globally, has added to geopolitical tensions and further dampened business activity.

Chinese policymakers pledged last week to prioritise economic growth and press on with reforms, easing fears that ideology could take precedence as President Xi Jinping began a new leadership term and disruptive lockdowns continued with no clear exit strategy in sight.

Tepid domestic demand, partly weighed down by fresh COVID curbs and lockdowns in October, hurt importers.

Inbound shipments declined 0.7% from a 0.3% gain in September, below a forecast 0.1% increase, marking the weakest outcome since August 2020.

The harsh impact on demand from strict pandemic measures and a property slump was also highlighted in a broad range of Chinese imports; purchases of soybeans declined to eight- year-lows last month while copper imports fell and coal imports slackened after hitting a 10-month high in September.

On top of the global slowdown, frail domestic consumption will put more strain on China’s economy for a while yet, analysts say.

“Insufficient domestic demand is the main constraint on China’s short-term recovery and long-term growth trajectory,” said Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle.

END

CHINA/TAIWAN

It looks a lot closer for Xi to invade Taiwan and shift the blame for its economic turmoil

(EpochTimes)

Xi Jinping May Invade Taiwan to Shift Blame for Economic Turmoil: China Economic Analyst

With real estate down $2.4 trillion it is likely the whole place is under water meaning a correction that will send many ripples before any invasion of Taiwan . A sign of reality is that those who can are getting out 

Xi Jinping May Invade Taiwan to Shift Blame for Economic Turmoil: China Economic Analyst

Chinese Leader Xi Jinping raises his hand as he votes during the closing session of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party at The Great Hall of People in Beijing, on Oct. 22, 2022. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

The Chinese leader Xi Jinping may launch an invasion of Taiwan after the national congress to shift blame for the regime’s economic turmoil, according to China economic analyst Antonio Graceffo.

In a report to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Xi has pledged to advance China’s economy while enforcing the zero-COVID policy. Yet reports emerge that the Chinese economy has been in such bad shape that Beijing could hardly offer a solution anytime soon.

“He [Xi] can’t actually do anything about the economy. The economy’s in such a bad state, there’s no way he can fix it. He can’t end COVID. So I’m very concerned that the only thing he can really do after this Congress is invade Taiwan,” Graceffo said in an interview with “China in Focus” on NTD News, the sister media outlet of The Epoch Times, on Oct 21.

“All they have to do is make a war. And then they can blame every problem on the war. Then it’s not Xi Jinping’s fault that they would have an economic crisis; it would be the fault of that war,” he added.

Abysmal Economic Figures

The analyst further elaborated on a debt crisis that China is facing, fueled by the real estate sector.

“In addition to all of the direct real estate debt, there is $8 trillion, nearly $8 trillion of local government debt, which was issued against real estate sales, but real estate sales are down by 30 percent this year,” Graceffo said.

By his estimates, the debt volume could be even bigger with the ripple effect.

“Because banks buy government bonds, and then they may use them as collateral for other investments, or for other lending that they’re doing. And so if those bonds default, it could cause a chain of defaults,” he explained.

The expert pointed to the private and public debt figure, which he said now stands at about 250 percent of China’s GDP, based on CEIC data.

“So this could completely just take down the Chinese banking system. It could crash out the currency; [it] can be really catastrophic,” he stated.

Moreover, as the Chinese yuan has fallen sharply, breaking Beijing’s threshold of 7 against the U.S. dollar, it becomes harder for China to pay the foreign debt, he noted.

Meanwhile, the effort to rescue the yuan faces obstacles as China tends to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.

“Trying to raise the currency while stimulating the economy, you can’t do both at the same time—they work against each other. So all the money will just be wasted. So the economic situation is just terrible,” Graceffo noted.

He pointed out that on Oct. 17, China’s National Bureau of Statistics delayed the release of key economic data scheduled for publication last week without any explanation.

“The fact that they’re refusing to release the data suggests to me that the data is so bad, that he [Xi] can’t even lie about it, that even Beijing can’t wave a magic wand to make it appear to be more than it is.”

“Goldman is predicting less than 3 percent growth in China this year,” he noted.

Increasingly Negative Public Views

Graceffo also took note of the fact there has been a growing unfavorable view of China among other countries.

“China is at an all-time low in terms of perception in the world. You know, most of the countries in the world absolutely don’t trust China anymore,” he said.

A new global survey by the Pew Research Center found that negative perceptions of China in the United States have more than doubled since Xi took office in 2012, with 82 percent of U.S. respondents expressing an “unfavorable opinion” of China this year—more than double the 40 percent recorded in 2012.

Likewise, 80 percent or more of respondents in Australia, Japan, and South Korea also are said to hold unfavorable views of China.

“This polarization is increasing,” he noted, predicting that Europe and the United States would consistently have China policies, and economic policy standards that are in tune with each other.

“And it’s going to make it so much more powerful. That’s gonna be against Russia and China.”

Graceffo further urged that the United States double down surveillance of China, making sure that they’re not planning some drastic action.

“Because when times are desperate, that’s when a leader will do something dramatic. Maybe it won’t be an invasion of Taiwan. Maybe there’ll be an invasion of India,” he said.

America should also build barriers between China and our capital markets, he suggested. We should not let China benefit from our capital markets.

“Don’t invest in China, because you’re feeding the CCP. You’re putting money in the pockets of the [People’s Liberation Army] PLA.”

Hannah Ng

Hannah Ng is a reporter covering U.S. and China news. She holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the University of Applied Science Berlin.

Tiffany Meier

Tiffany Meier is a New York-based reporter and host of NTD’s “China in Focus.”

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

FRANCE

France’s largest glass manufacturer is now shut down for at least 6 months due to high energy costs

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

Durelax shut down for 6 months

Robert HryniakFri, Nov 4, 6:09 PM (13 hours ago)
to

A sign of the times in Europe

END

FRANCE

France’s nuclear reactor power outlook worsens ahead of winter.  Electricity prices erupt again

(zerohedge)

French Nuclear Reactor Power Outlook Worsens Ahead Of Winter, Electricity Prices Erupt

SATURDAY, NOV 05, 2022 – 07:35 AM

France’s nuclear troubles are mounting due primarily to routine maintenance of the country’s 56 aging reactors. A new update from French electric utility company Electricite de France SA, commonly known as EDF, said an outlook for nuclear power generation was slashed ahead of winter, causing chaos in energy markets. 

EDF is the world’s largest owner of nuclear plants. It reported Friday that its fleet of nuclear reactors is expected to produce between 275 and 285 terawatt-hours of energy this year, down from the range of 280 and 300 terawatt-hours.

The reduced outlook comes amid a series of strikes at nuclear plants across the country that delayed planned maintenance work. Nuclear power generation has been sliding all year due to technical issues, and about half of the country’s 56 reactors are shuttered

“The situation changed drastically this year, when France swung from being one of Europe’s largest exporters of electricity to a net importer because of issues with its reactors. The outages worried officials that France and the broader region might run short of electricity in the winter, when power demand in Europe peaks,” Bloomberg said. 

News of nuclear troubles sent French power contracts sky-high, surging as much as 24%. Dutch natural gas futures, Europe’s benchmark, briefly moved higher on the news but gave up all gains and slid on the continued warm spell across Europe. 

Two weeks ago, we wrote in a note that “Germany May Stave Off Worst Of Energy Crisis As Mild Temps Forecast Through Mid-November.” Then, earlier this week, we noted the warm spell across Europe is about to end. 

Weeks of mild weather and ample EU NatGas stockpiles have delayed the energy crisis, though it will only take a few cold snaps before it reemerges.

“Therefore, we see little reason why spot gas prices will not rise again as Europe will need to compete for available LNG cargoes and supplies against Asia, particularly as China reopens in the future,” analysts at Sanford C Bernstein & Co. wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

end 

GERMANY/CHINA

Escobar piggy backs on top of Dr Michael Hudson’s big paper on why Berlin is going to Beijing

a must read.

(Pepe Escobar)

Escobar: Berlin Goes To Beijing – The Real Deal

SATURDAY, NOV 05, 2022 – 09:30 PM

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

The Scholz caravan went to Beijing to lay down the preparatory steps for working out a peace deal with Russia, with China as privileged messenger…

With his inimitable flair for economic analysis steeped in historical depth, Professor Michael Hudson’s latest essay, originally written for a German audience, presents a stunning parallel between the Crusades and the current “rules-based international order” imposed by the Hegemon.

Professor Hudson details how the Papacy in Rome managed to lock up unipolar control over secular realms (rings a bell?) when the game was all about Papal precedence over kings, above all the German Holy Roman Emperors. As we know, half in jest, the Empire was not exactly Holy, nor German (perhaps a little Roman), and not even an Empire.

A clause in the Papal Dictates provided the Pope with the authority to excommunicate whomever was “not at peace with the Roman Church.” Hudson sharply notes how US sanctions are the modern equivalent of excommunication.

Arguably there are Top Two dates in the whole process.

The first one would be the Third Ecumenical Council of 435: this is when only Rome (italics mine) was attributed universal authority (italics mine). Alexandria and Antioch, for instance, were limited to regional authority within the Roman Empire.

The other top date is 1054 – when Rome and Constantinople split for good. That is, the Roman Catholic Church split from Orthodoxy, which leads us to Russia, and Moscow as The Third Rome – and the centuries-old animosity of “the West” against Russia.

A State of Martial Law

Professor Hudson then delves on the trip by “Liver Sausage” Chancellor Scholz’s delegation to China this week to “demand that it dismantle its public sector and stops subsidizing its economy, or else Germany and Europe will impose sanctions on trade with China.”

Well, in fact this happens to be just childish wishful thinking, expressed by the German Council on Foreign Relations in a piece published on the Financial Times (the Japanese-owned platform in the City of London). The Council, as correctly described by Hudson, is “the neoliberal ‘libertarian’ arm of NATO demanding German de-industrialization and dependency” on the US.

So the FT, predictably, is printing NATO wet dreams.

Context is essential. German Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, in a keynote speech at Bellevue Castle, has all but admitted that Berlin is broke: “An era of headwinds is beginning for Germany – difficult, difficult years are coming for us. Germany is in the deepest crisis since reunification.”

Yet schizophrenia, once again, reigns supreme, as Steinmeier, after a ridiculous stunt in Kiev – complete with posing as a unwitting actor huddled in a bunker – announced an extra handout: two more MARS multiple rocket launchers and four Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers to be delivered to the Ukrainians.

So even if the “world” economy – actually the EU – is so fragilized that member-states cannot help Kiev anymore without harming their own populations, and the EU is on the verge of a catastrophic energy crisis, fighting for “our values” in Country 404 trumps it all.

The Big Picture context is also key. Andrea Zhok, Professor of Ethical Philosophy at the University of Milan, has taken Giorgio Agamben’s “State of Exception” concept to new heights.

Zhok proposes that the zombified collective West is now completely subjugated to a “State of Martial Law” – where a Forever War ethos is the ultimate priority for rarified global elites.

Every other variable – from trans-humanism to depopulation and even cancel culture – is subordinated to the State of Martial Law, and is basically inessential. The only thing that matters is exercising absolute, raw control.

Berlin – Moscow – Beijing

Solid German business sources completely contradict the “message” delivered by the German Council on Foreign Relations on the trip to China.

According to these sources, the Scholz caravan went to Beijing to essentially lay down the preparatory steps for working out a peace deal with Russia, with China as privileged messenger.

This is – literally – as explosive, geopolitically and geoeconomically, as it gets. As I pointed out in one of my previous columns, Berlin and Moscow were keeping a secret communication back channel – via business interlocutors – right to the minute the usual suspects, in desperation, decided to blow up the Nord Streams.

Cue to the now notorious SMS from Liz Truss’s iPhone to Little Tony Blinken, one minute after the explosions: “It’s done.”

There’s more: the Scholz caravan may be trying to start a long and convoluted process of eventually replacing the US with China as a key ally. One should never forget that the top BRI trade/connectivity terminal in the EU is Germany (the Ruhr valley).

According to one of the sources, “if this effort is successful, then Germany, China and Russia can ally themselves together and drive the US out of Europe.”

Another source provided the cherry on the cake: “Olaf Scholz is being accompanied on this trip by German industrialists who actually control Germany and are not going to sit back watching themselves being destroyed.”

Moscow knows very well what the imperial aim is when it comes to the EU reduced to the role of totally dominated – and deindustrialized – vassal, exercising zero sovereignty. The back channels after all are not lying in tatters on the bottom of the Baltic Sea. Additionally, China has not provided any hint that its massive trade with Germany and the EU is about to vanish.

Scholz himself, one day before his caravan hit Beijing, stressed to Chinese media that Germany has no intention of decoupling from China, and there’s nothing to justify “the calls by some to isolate China.”

In parallel, Xi Jinping and the new Politburo are very much aware of the Kremlin position, reiterated again and again: we always remain open for negotiations, as long as Washington finally decides to talk about the end of unlimited NATO expansion drenched in Russophobia.

So to negotiate means the Empire signing on the dotted line of the document it has received from Moscow on December 1st, 2021, focused on “indivisibility of security”. Otherwise there’s nothing to negotiate.

And when we have Pentagon lobbyist Lloyd “Raytheon” Austin advising the Ukrainians on the record to advance on Kherson, it’s even more crystal clear there’s nothing to negotiate.

So could this all be the foundation stone of the Berlin-Moscow-Beijing trans-Eurasia geopolitical/geoeconomic corridor? That will mean Bye Bye Empire. Once again: it ain’t over till the fat lady goes Gotterdammerung.

end

ITALY 

Italy refuses to allow migrants into the country

(Cody Remix)

“Italy Is A Fully Sovereign Country” – Italy’s New Conservative Govt Refuses To Dock Migrants From German NGO Ships

SUNDAY, NOV 06, 2022 – 08:45 AM

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

Italy argues that German ships flying German flags should be responsible for the migrants…

Survivors are disembarked on the tiny Sicilian island of Lampedusa, Italy, Friday, Oct. 21, 2022. Italy’s coast guard says it has found two dead minors on a migrant boat carrying nearly 40 people in the Mediterranean Sea, and a search is underway for a woman reported missing from the vessel. (AP Photo/David Lohmueller)

Three NGO ships with more than 1,000 people on board are waiting to dock off the Italian coast, but Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi are firmly refusing German demands that the ships dock in Italian ports.

Rome’s foreign ministry confirmed on Thursday that it had previously sent a verbal note to Berlin asking it to accept the migrants on board the German-registered Humanity 1. The Italian ministry added that the German side had been asked for information on the people on board.

The diplomatic document, dated Oct. 23, was published on Wednesday by public television channel RAI3. In its response, the Berlin foreign ministry urged Rome to provide assistance as soon as possible to the people on board the NGO boat, including more than 100 minors.

“Rescuing people in mortal danger is the most important thing,” read a statement from German embassy urging Italy allow the boats to dock.

“If Germany believes that there is a humanitarian problem, it should take care of it, Italy cannot become the refuge of all immigrants,” said the Minister for Relations with Parliament Luca Ciriani while speaking on the “Agorà” show on the Rai3 television channel.

According to Piantedosi, European countries that flag their vessels should welcome those arriving via the NGOs that use those boats. However, he said the only way to solve the migration flow was to stop departures altogether.

Ciriani backed Piantedosi’s hard line on migration, saying, “We cannot simply be the terminal of choices that take place elsewhere. We are a serious country, Italy is a fully sovereign country.”

Ciriani also repeated Piantedosi’s position, saying flying German flags should indicate Germany’s responsibility for migrants on those ships.

“If it intends to act in international waters, then it must also take responsibility for the choices made by the ships flying its flag,” said Ciriani who added, “We cannot accept that Germany decides for us.”

As Remix News previously reported, there are numerous German NGO ships operating in the Mediterranean that rescue migrants but also serve as a draw for many migrants who believe they will be rescued if something goes wrong. The groups have also been accused of cooperating with migrant smugglers and arranging to meet up with smugglers on the open sea to transfer migrants. Many of these ships are supported with funds from German Protestant churches. However, as the German press has reported in the past, the vast majority of these migrants are not refugees, but instead economic migrants.

Italy’s stance may cause another rift within the EU. When Matteo Salvini refused to dock migrants while previously serving as interior minister, migrant numbers dramatically dropped in Italy. However, once he lost power, he was targeted by prosecutors with “kidnapping” charges for defending Italy’s borders and faced harsh prison sentences for his actions.

Italy’s government says it won’t back down

With 179 people on board, Humanity 1 is waiting some 18 kilometers outside Italian territorial waters. Also waiting to dock with 572 people on board is the Geo Barents, a vessel operated by Doctors Without Borders, and the Ocean Viking, a French vessel of the SOS Mediterranée organization, registered in Norway, is carrying more than 200 people. The vessels took on board the people in international waters between Oct. 22 and Oct. 29.

Italy continues to refuse to allow the ships to dock. Ocean Viking had already asked Spain, France, and Greece to do the same on Thursday, according to Hungarian news outlet Magyar Nemzet.

In an interview with the Corriere della Sera, Italian Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi said that with the new right-wing government, Italy would no longer accept people taken on board foreign ships at sea. He stressed that NGO boats regularly carry out their activities with minimal involvement of the authorities. He noted that 16 percent of people arriving on Italian shores are transported via NGO boats, while local authorities are required to assist the remaining 84 percent.

The interior minister had previously declared the docking of the Humanity 1 and the Ocean Viking unsafe by decree, citing national security reasons.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/FINLAND/USA

Not a very smart move as this gets us closer to a nuclear war

(zerohedge)

US Greenlights Guided Rockets For Finland To ‘Bolster Europe’s Northern Flank’

MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Washington is moving forward with assisting Finland in improving its security situation at a moment its controversial application to joint NATO remains stalled due to objections from Turkey and Hungary.  

The State Department has approved the potential sale of $535 million worth of guided multiple launch rocket systems (GMLRS) and related equipment to Helsinki. Among other things, the GMLRS transfer will contribute to land and air defense capabilities for Europe’s northernmost allied outpost near Russia. 

“This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security of the United States by improving the security of a trusted partner, which is an important force for political stability and economic progress in Europe,” the US Department of Defense announced last week.

It is vital to the US national interest to assist Finland in developing and maintaining a strong and ready self-defense capability,” the statement added. 

Finland shares an 800-mile border with Russia, and the Kremlin has warned that any observable build-up of NATO infrastructure near the border will trigger Russian forces to do the same. Moscow has further warned of nuclear build-up and standoff in the Baltic region over Finland’s potential entry into NATO. 

“Finland intends to use these defense articles and services to increase its national stock, bolstering the land and air defense capabilities in Europe’s northern flank,” the US statement underscored. “The increased national stock is critical to Finland’s defense and deterrence due to the deteriorated security situation in Europe.”

According to more details in The Defense Post:

Under the order, Finland requested 150 M30A1 GMLRS steel cases or M30A2 GMLRS missile pods with an insensitive munitions propulsion system (IMPS) or a combination of both.

The Northern European country also included 250 M31A1 GMLRS unitary steel cases or M31A2 GMLRS-U IMPS, or a combination of both, in the request.

…The state department is still in the process of diverting 50 percent of the procurement from US stocks. A final decision based on this process will determine the GMLRS version Finland receives.

Meanwhile, the process of Finland and Sweden’s NATO application is expected to take a long time, especially after Turkey said days ago the two countries have not done enough, and must still take “steps” to join the military alliance. 

“President Erdogan noted that the steps to be taken by Sweden and Finland would determine how fast the approval process… would go and when it would be concluded,” the Turkish presidency said in a statement. 

end

RUSSIA

Pepe Escobar on the grain deal.  

(Pepe Escobar)

Escobar: No Pain, No Grain… Putin’s Black Sea Comeback

SUNDAY, NOV 06, 2022 – 07:00 AM

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

After the western military attack on Sevastopol briefly halted Russian grain transports, Moscow is back in business with a stronger hand and more favorable terms…

So, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan picks up the phone and calls his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin: let’s talk about the “grain deal.” Putin, cool, calm and collected, explains the facts to the Sultan:

  • First, the reason why Russia withdrew from the export grain deal.
  • Second, how Moscow seeks a serious investigation into the – terrorist – attack on the Black Sea fleet, which for all practical purposes seems to have violated the deal.
  • And third, how Kiev must guarantee it will uphold the deal, brokered by Turkey and the UN.

Only then would Russia consider coming back to the table.

And then – this week on 2 November – the coup de theatre: Russia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) announces the country is back to the Black Sea grain deal, after receiving the necessary written guarantees from Kiev.

The MoD, quite diplomatically, praised the “efforts” of both Turkey and the UN: Kiev is committed not to use the “Maritime Humanitarian Corridor” for combat operations, and only in accordance with the provisions of the Black Sea Initiative.

Moscow said the guarantees are sufficient “for the time being.” Implying that can always change.

All rise to the Sultan’s persuasion

Erdogan must have been extremely persuasive with Kiev. Before the phone call to Putin, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) had already explained that the attack on the Black Sea Fleet was conducted by 9 aerial drones and 7 naval drones, plus an American RQ-4B Global Hawk observation drone lurking in the sky over neutral waters.

The attack happened under the cover of civilian ships and targeted Russian vessels that escorted the grain corridor in the perimeter of their responsibility, as well as the infrastructure of the Russian base in Sevastopol.

The MoD explicitly designated British experts deployed in the Ochakov base in the Nikolaev region as the designers of this military operation.

At the UN Security Council, Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzya declared himself “surprised” that the UN leadership “failed not only to condemn, but even to express concern over the terrorist attacks.”

After stating that the Brit-organized Kiev operation on the Black Sea Fleet “put an end to the humanitarian dimension of the Istanbul agreements,” Nebenzya also clarified:

“It is our understanding that the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine agreed on under UN supervision on 22 July, must not be implemented without Russia, and so we do not view the decisions that were made without our involvement as binding.”

This means, in practice, that Moscow “cannot allow for unimpeded passage of vessels without our inspection.” The crucial question is how and where these inspections will be carried out – as Russia has warned the UN that it will definitely inspect dry cargo ships in the Black Sea.

The UN, for its part, tried at best to put on a brave face, believing Russia’s suspension is “temporary” and looking forward to welcoming “its highly professional team” back to the Joint Coordination Center.

According to humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths, the UN also proclaims to be “ready to address concerns.” And that has to be soon, because the deal reaches its 120-day extension point on November 19.

Well, “addressing concerns” is not exactly the case. Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia Dmitry Polyansky said that at the UN Security Council meeting western nations simply could not deny their involvement in the Sevastopol attack; instead, they simply blamed Russia.

All the way to Odessa

Prior to the phone call with Erdogan, Putin had already pointed out that “34 percent of the grain exported under the deal goes to Turkey, 35 percent to EU countries and only 3-4 percent to the poorest countries. Is this what we did everything for?”

That’s correct. For instance, 1.8 million tons of grain went to Spain; 1.3 million tons to Turkey; and 0.86 million tons to Italy. By contrast, only 0,067 tons went to “starving” Yemen and 0,04 tons to “starving” Afghanistan.

Putin made it very clear that Moscow was not withdrawing from the grain deal but had only suspended its participation.

And as a further gesture of good will, Moscow announced it would willingly ship 500,000 tons of grain to poorer nations for free, in an effort to replace the integral amount that Ukraine should have been able to export.

All this time, Erdogan skillfully maneuvered to convey the impression he was occupying the higher ground: even if Russia behaves in an “indecisive” manner, as he defined it, we will continue to pursue the grain deal.

So, it seems like Moscow was being tested – by the UN and by Ankara, which happens to be the main beneficiary of the grain deal and is clearly profiting from this economic corridor. Ships continue to depart from Odessa to Turkish ports – mainly Istanbul – without Moscow’s agreement. It was expected they would be “filtered” by Russia when coming back to Odessa.

The immediate Russian means of pressure was unleashed in no time: preventing Odessa from becoming a terrorist infrastructure node. This means constant visits by cruise missiles.

Well, the Russians have already “visited” the Ochakov base occupied by Kiev and the British experts. Ochakov – between Nikolaev and Odessa – was built way back in 2017, with key American input.

The British units that were involved in the sabotage of the Nord Streams – according to Moscow – are the same ones that planned the Sevastopol operation. Ochakov is constantly spied upon and sometimes hit out of positions that the Russians have cleared last month only 8 km to the south, on the extremity of the Kinburn peninsula. And yet the base has not been totally destroyed.

To reinforce the “message,” the real response to the attack on Sevastopol has been this week’s relentless “visits” of Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure; if maintained, virtually the whole of Ukraine will soon be plunged into darkness.

Closing down the Black Sea

The attack on Sevastopol may have been the catalyst leading to a Russian move to close down the Black Sea – with Odessa converted into an absolutely priority for the Russian Army. There are serious rumblings across Russia on why Russophone Odessa had not been the object of pinpointed targeting before.

Top infrastructure for Ukrainian Special Forces and British advisers is based in Odessa and Nikolaev. Now there’s no question these will be destroyed.

Even with the grain deal in theory back on track, it is hopeless to expect Kiev to abide by any agreements. After all, every major decision is taken either by Washington or by the Brits at NATO. Just like bombing the Crimea Bridge, and then the Nord Streams, attacking the Black Sea Fleet was designed as a serious provocation.

The brilliant designers though seem to have IQs lower than refrigerator temperatures: every Russian response always plunges Ukraine deeper down an inescapable – and now literally black – hole.

The grain deal seemed to be a sort of win-win. Kiev would not contaminate Black Sea ports again after they were demined. Turkey turned into a grain transport hub for the poorest nations (actually that’s not what happened: the main beneficiary was the EU). And sanctions on Russia were eased on the export of agricultural products and fertilizers.

This was, in principle, a boost for Russian exports. In the end, it did not work out because many players were worried about possible secondary sanctions.

It is important to remember that the Black Sea grain deal is actually two deals: Kiev signed a deal with Turkey and the UN, and Russia signed a separate deal with Turkey.

The corridor for the grain carriers is only 2 km wide. Minesweepers move in parallel along the corridor. Ships are inspected by Ankara. So the Kiev-Ankara-UN deal remains in place. It has nothing to do with Russia – which in this case does not escort and/or inspect the cargoes.

What changes with Russia “suspending” its own deal with Ankara and the UN, is that from now on, Moscow can proceed anyway it deems fit to neutralize terrorist threats and even invade and take over Ukrainian ports: that will not represent a violation of the deal with Ankara and the UN.

So in this respect, it is a game-changer.

Seems like Erdogan fully understood the stakes, and told Kiev in no uncertain terms to behave. There’s no guarantee, though, that western powers won’t come up with another Black Sea provocation. Which means that sooner or later – perhaps by the Spring of 2023 – General Armageddon will have to come up with the goods. That translates as advancing all the way to Odessa.

END

BULGARIA/RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Bulgaria now does a U turn and votes overwhelmingly to send arms to Ukraine

(zerohedge)

In U-Turn, Bulgarian Parliament Votes Overwhelmingly To Send Arms To Ukraine

SATURDAY, NOV 05, 2022 – 08:45 AM

For eight months, Bulgaria has been among a few holdout EU members, Hungary also foremost among them, which have refused to join NATO allies in shipping weapons to Ukraine for the war effort against invading Russian forces. 

But the eastern European country which sits across the Black Sea from Russia has signaled a big U-turn on the arms ban, with lawmakers in parliament voting Thursday to greenlight weapons transfers to Kiev.

The vote was overwhelming in favor: “The 175-49 vote in favor of the measure marked a rare moment of consensus among Bulgaria’s deeply divided political spectrum,” writes US state-funded RFERL. 

Members of parliament reportedly argued that sending weapons and parts to Ukraine would provide Bulgaria with the opportunity to modernize its weapons stock. This is to include “heavy guns” sent to Ukraine. 

Politico notes that a political bloc seen as “Russia-friendly” had long blocked efforts to do more to help Ukraine’s military. “This comes after the parliament previously blocked such a move amid opposition from the Russia-friendly Socialist party, then a coalition partner in the government,” the report says. 

“The newly adopted motion asks the Cabinet to launch talks with NATO allies to replace or boost defense capabilities in exchange for more quickly freeing up its Soviet-era military equipment,” Politico adds. 

At this point, the policy shift leaves Hungary as the only NATO country to refrain from supplying arms to Ukraine – something not expected to change anytime soon under Viktor Orbán, also given the country’s deep energy dependency on Russia. 

Bulgaria has thus far provided arms only indirectly via third party countries purchasing the weaponry, estimated at over €1 billion worth so far throughout the conflict. 

END

IRAN

Iran admits supplying Russia with drones

(zerohedge)

Iran Admits Supplying Russia With Drones For 1st Time

SUNDAY, NOV 06, 2022 – 07:35 AM

Iran has on Saturday for the first time admitted to supplying Russia with drones, after weeks of condemnation from the West over their widespread use by pro-Kremlin forces in Ukraine. 

However, Tehran insists that its drones were being transferred before the Ukraine invasion. “We supplied Russia with a limited number of drones months before the war in Ukraine,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, as quoted in state media IRNA. 

So while admitting the weapons transfers, which the US has condemned before the United Nations, the Iranian position is that the drones were never intended for use on the Ukrainian battlefield. Essentially Iranian officials are claiming it’s out of their hands and they can’t be held responsible. 

“In a telephone conversation with the Ukrainian foreign minister last week, we agreed that if there was evidence (of Moscow’s use of Iranian drones), he would provide it to us,” Amir-Abdollahian said.

“If the Ukrainian side keeps its promise, we can discuss this issue in the coming days and we will take into account their evidence,” he added.

Washington and Kiev officials do say they possess evidence of Iranian suicide drones having been used to attack both military and civilian infrastructure. Staring last month, Russia dramatically increased its aerial attacks, specifically declaring Ukraine’s energy infrastructure would be degraded. 

Since then, Ukrainian authorities have said up to 40% of the nation’s electrical supply stations have been damaged or knocked offline. Hundreds of thousands of homes in the Ukrainian capital are also said to have been without power for days, also amid rolling emergency blackouts. 

As for Washington’s accusations of ballistic missile transfers between the Islamic Republic and Moscow, Iran has again denied this charge as “completely false”. But US officials have pointed the finger at Iran for helping Russia resupply its dwindling weapons stocks.

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

This is not good! Russia now states that one missile from Ukraine hit the all timportant dam near Kherson

(zerohedge)

Russia Says Major Dam Hit By US-Supplied HIMARS Rockets

SUNDAY, NOV 06, 2022 – 09:55 AM

Russia has announced Sunday that a major dam in the Russian-controlled region of Kherson was damaged in a Ukrainian strike using an advanced US-supplied system. 

“Today at 10:00 there was a hit of six HIMARS rockets. Air defense units shot down five missiles, one hit a lock of the Kakhovka dam, which was damaged,” Russian news agencies quoted local emergency authorities as saying. 

The Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine has been in Russian hands since near the start of the invasion of Ukraine, considered a critical asset to the Russians given it supplies water to Crimea. This also makes it a potential target for the Ukrainian army, given President Zelensky’s prior pledges to “liberate” Crimea. 

An official with the Moscow-installed administration, however, said “Everything is under control. The main air defense strikes were repelled, one missile hit [the dam], but did not cause critical damage.” 

The Kakhovka dam has for months been at the center of competing accusations and claims, with President Zelensky saying weeks ago that Russian troops are plotting a ‘false flag’ detonation of the large structure in order to trigger cataclysmic flooding. 

Zelensky appealed to world powers to ensure the dam’s safe operation by sending an international mission to protect and operate it, pointing out that if the dam burst it would case a “catastrophe on a grand scale”.

“The dam of this hydroelectric power plant holds about 18 million cubic meters of water,” he said in statements last month. “If Russian terrorists blow up this dam, more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, will be in the zone of rapid flooding. Hundreds, hundreds of thousands of people may be affected.”

He described that Russian forces previously kicked the dam workers out of the facility and now have complete control over it. “They have complete control over the station,” Zelensky added. “It is necessary to act immediately so that Russia does not have the opportunity to realize this catastrophe.”

The ongoing standoff mirrors that of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has also from the war’s start been under Russian control but has also suffered shelling, which if damaged severely enough could have catastrophic effects on the whole area, given the potential for radioactive fallout.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES.

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

end

GLOBAL ISSUES//

GLOBAL ISSUES:  FOOD INFLATION

end

PAUL ALEXANDER

Open in app or online

“Let’s Declare a Pandemic Amnesty”—Not Let’s not declare a pandemic amnesty. Let’s declare a real pandemic inquiry. My friend Michael Senger is over target, I have called for same, no Amnesty; JUSTICE

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 5
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

The New Normal

“Let’s Declare a Pandemic Amnesty”—Not

I’ll admit, I nearly spit out my coffee when I saw Brown Professor Emily Oster’s new headline in The Atlantic this morning. It’s the headline we’ve been waiting to see—and, in the revisionist, gaslighting style that’s become the journalistic norm on the response to Covid—it’s about the closest thing to an outright admission of guilt that we’ve seen sinc…

Read moreEND

VACCINE IMPACT

STOP the Infanticide! 60,000% Increase in Fetal Deaths Following COVID-19 Vaccines!

November 4, 2022 4:44 pm

The U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) was updated today, and there are now 4,534 fetal deaths recorded in VAERS following COVID-19 vaccines given to pregnant and child-bearing women. And these recorded fetal deaths are but a fraction of the real number of unborn children who have died since the COVID-19 experimental vaccines were given emergency use authorization, as a previous report published for Department of Health and Human Services stated that fewer than 1% of all vaccine adverse events are actually reported to VAERS. By way of contrast, for the 30 years prior to the emergency use authorization of the COVID-19 vaccines, there were 2,245 reported cases of fetal deaths following all FDA-approved vaccines, or about 6 fetal deaths per year. Taking the total fetal deaths following COVID-19 vaccines for the year 2021, 3,774 fetal deaths, that is an increase of 60,418% over the yearly average of fetal deaths following all FDA-approved vaccines for the previous 30 years. Besides these government statistics from VAERS, medical professionals are corroborating this evidence of infanticide by COVID-19 vaccines based on the increase they are seeing in fetal deaths and stillborn babies following the roll outs of the COVID-19 vaccines. An alleged leaked email from a “managing nurse” from a hospital in Fresno, California, states that there has been an increase in stillbirths following the COVID-19 vaccines, and that this trend is expected to continue according to Epoch Times. This follows a report we recently published by Dr. John Campbell regarding the increase in neonatal deaths in Scotland. And that follows another report we published last month (October, 2022) from Dr. James Thorp, who was interviewed by Dr. Drew Pensky and stated that in the past two years since the mRNA COVID vaccines were introduced, he has seen an “off-the-charts” rise in sudden fetal death and adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as fetal malformation and even fetal cardiac arrest, among his patients. And that follows a report we published in September of a Toronto-area casket manufacturer who reported that for the first time in his 30 years of manufacturing coffins, they had to order more coffins than usual for children, ordering them in bulk this year, as there has been such a dramatic increase in deaths among children. And that follows a report we published in June from Dr. Elizabeth Mumper who stated “For a first-trimester woman to get this injection, they have more of a chance of having a miscarriage or stillbirth than if they were to actually take an abortifacient.” Another article we published in June reported that birth rates around the world were dropping since the COVID-19 vaccines were mass distributed to the public. In May, we published an article reporting that the FDA had data showing 82% – 97% of pregnant women injected with the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine lost their babies before the FDA authorized the shots. This problem of massive fetal deaths following COVID-19 vaccines is very well documented and testified to now. It has even been covered on Fox News, and I alone have gotten this message out to millions of people now. And while the Red State Governors have been quick to utilize the recent Supreme Court ruling to make it illegal for parents in their states to kill their unborn children via abortion, how many governors are taking action to prevent parents from trying to kill their unborn children, and even their children already born, with the COVID-19 shots? NONE OF THEM! As for the 50 U.S. Senators and the 435 members of the House of Representatives, as well as the former Republican President of the United States, how many of them are taking a stand against infanticide and attempted child murder via the COVID-19 shots? NONE OF THEM! They are all pro-vaccine, including pro-COVID-19 vaccines. The blood of the unborn is staining this country and crying out to God, and much of it is being shed by those who call themselves “Christians” and “Conservatives” who will find out, perhaps too late, that God does not care about your political or religious affiliations. Justice will be served at the correct time. And in my opinion, that time is coming soon.

Read More.

“Died Unexpectedly” Cases Surge with More Deaths in 2022 than 2020-2021 as People Continue to Get COVID-19 Vaccines

November 6, 2022 3:31 pm

The fact that deaths of previously healthy young people are now exploding around the world is no longer in dispute, as even the corporate media has had to address this tragic phenomenon. The Telegraph reported this week: “Excess deaths in England and Wales are currently running higher than in the main pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, figures have shown. Throughout October, there have been an average of 1,564 extra deaths per week, compared with a weekly average of just 315 in 2020 and 1,322 in 2021.” What none of these corporate media sources dare to address, of course, is if these young, formerly healthy people were vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccines, and what possible role the experimental vaccines could have played in their “unexpected” deaths. The reason for this is undoubtedly because the corporate media today is not an industry that can exist in a free market, and is therefore dependent on sponsors to fund them, and the largest sponsors are from the pharmaceutical industry. To even suggest that the COVID-19 vaccines played any part in these “unexpected” deaths would cause people to stop wanting to receive their vaccine products, and it would also open them up to criminal prosecution. As I have previously reported, here in the U.S. the criminal government agencies that protect the pharmaceutical industry have labeled these deaths Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS), and developed a new term and category to explain the diseases that are crippling those who do not die called “Long COVID.” The problem with using “Long COVID” as the name for a disease, is that it is simply based on a list of symptoms, the same symptoms found in the U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) following COVID-19 vaccines, and there is no laboratory test to diagnose “Long COVID.” If health insurance companies were forced to start covering the costs of treating all these cases of “Long COVID,” it would almost certainly mean the financial collapse of the insurance industry.

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY/

SLAY NEWS//

The latest reports from Slay NewsMassive Pandemic Data Fraud Exposed: 40% of ‘Covid Deaths’ Were FabricatedA massive global pandemic data reporting scandal has been exposed after a bombshell report shows that almost 40 percent of all recorded “Covid-related deaths” were fraudulent.READ MOREFull List of ‘Woke’ Celebrities ‘Leaving’ Twitter over Elon Musk“Woke” celebrities are outraged that Elon Musk has taken over Twitter and are “leaving” the platform over his plans to restore free speech.READ MOREMSNBC Fires Tiffany Cross over Her ‘Bad Judgement’MSNBC has fired Tiffany Cross and cut ties with the controversial host after NBC Universal executives grew tired of her “bad judgment,” according to reports.READ MOREKari Lake Puts Clintons on Notice: ‘Attn Hillary – I’m Not Suicidal’Arizona’s rock star GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has fired a warning shot at Hillary Clinton after the twice-failed Democrat presidential nominee “badmouthed” her on MSNBC.READ MOREStephen Colbert Makes Public Apology to Michigan Voter before Trashing Him AgainLiberal talk show host Stephen Colbert caved and made a public apology to a Michigan voter who said he has flipped from Democrat to Republican. During a segment on his show, Colbert mocked Mulsim-American voter Khalil Othman and claimed he wasn’t real. Othman is an angry parent who had enough of the Democrats and told Michigan’s Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor …READ MOREMarjorie Taylor Greene Fires Back at Liz Cheney: ‘You and Your Daddy Are in the Past’Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has fired back at Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) after the outgoing congresswoman trashed her speech at President Donald Trump’s “Save America” rally in Iowa.READ MOREJeff Bezos Sued by Former Housekeeper: ‘No Employer Is Above the Law’Jeff Bezos’ former housekeeper has filed a lawsuit against the Amazon founder and his various companies.READ MORERattner: High Inflation ‘Not All on Biden’ as Trillions in Fed Stimulus Partly to BlameFormer Obama administration adviser Steve Rattner said on Thursday that the Biden administration is not entirely to blame for soaring inflation.READ MOREOxford Academic: It’s ‘Ethical’ to Let a Dying Stranger Die If You Know They Eat MeatAn academic from Britain’s prestigious Oxford University has argued that it is “ethical” to leave a dying stranger to die if you know they eat meat.READ MORETrump to Officially Launch 2024 Presidential Campaign on November 14: ‘Get Ready’President Donald Trump is preparing to launch his 2024 presidential campaign on November 14, according to reports.READ MOREJimmy Kimmel Admits He Lost Half His Fanbase over Anti-Trump JokesLiberal talk show host Jimmy Kimmel has admitted he lost at least half of his fanbase due to telling anti-Trump jokes on his late-night show. READ MOREPfizer ‘Pausing’ Ads on Twitter to Protest Elon Musk’s Free Speech PlansPharmaceutical giant Pfizer has announced it joining several other “woke” corporations in “pausing” ads on Twitter to protest new owner Elon Musk’s plans to restore free speech on his platform.READ MOREMSNBC’s Joy Reid: Republicans ‘Have Taught People the Word Inflation’ to Smear DemocratsMSNBC host Joy Reid has claimed that conservative voters had never heard the word “inflation” until Republicans turned it into a campaign issue to use against Democrats for this year’s midterms.READ MORE

/MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

Michael Every on the day’s most important events:

No, No, No, No, No, No, No, No, No, NO!

MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 11:00 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

It would be so easy at the start of a week like this to just convey to readers that X went up y% on Friday, and A went down b%, and add a schedule for what data will be released today. That might well be what you are looking for – in which case, you are in the wrong place. This Daily says NO to that kind of thing! That’s because lots of others say no to lots of other things.

NO PIVOT

We got another strong US (and Canadian) payrolls report on Friday. This week also sees US CPI, where there is a good risk the print comes in hotter than consensus yet again. Yes, there are real questions about the reliability of both of these data sets, but can we please drop the endless attempts to self-servingly sell an imminent Fed pivot?

Yet I suspect we will still get more pivot messaging – from the Fed itself, or parts of it. If you think ‘pro-MMT’ Brainard, pro-Wall Street others, and ‘New Volcker’ Powell see eye to eye on Fed Funds going over 5%, as is entirely possible if we get hot CPI on top of hot payrolls, then you don’t understand the real world. “A split in the Fed? A politicized Fed? A Fed backing special interests? Surely not!” Yes, this is how central banks operate, especially under duress. The BOE Governor last week had to appear on TV and underline he hadn’t helped carry out a coup vs. his own prime minister(!), ironically demonstrating the extent to which DM now act like EM, and that, as in EM, nothing is considered true until it has been officially denied.

NO REOPENING

Friday saw wild trading and sharp drop in the dollar despite payrolls due to rumours China would soon reopen. This was based on one report from a retired Chinese health official and an anonymous screen shot. People who know something about China were deeply sceptical. And lo and behold, China held a press conference on Saturday and shot down the idea of an end to Covid Zero. That also shoots down the recent bullish trend, and the credibility of many ‘China watchers’; and it shows how susceptible fools are to shills. I also reiterate if China reopens in 2023, then we will get a huge surge in supply-side inflation – in which case the Fed is hiking even more.

NO ENDORSEMENTS

A flurry of economic news over the weekend makes the complete opposite case to China bulls. PBOC Vie-Governor Fan Yifei is under serious disciplinary investigation, which alongside rumours that Governor Yi Gang may soon step down too, would underline Western-trained/friendly technocrats are being replaced. China is reviving its pre-reform state sales and marketing co-operatives. Beijing will establish new central SOEs to service its strategic goals, including in international trade, linking upstream to downstream, and by implication the private sector too. Moreover, the CCP insists “Celebrities should consciously practice socialist core values in their advertising endorsements; activities should confirm to social morals and traditional virtues.” Relatedly, Xi stated: “We need to educate people, especially the youths… that China’s socialism is won by hard work, struggles, and even sacrifice of lives. This was not only true in the past but also true in the new era.”

Even October trade data were weak: imports were -0.7% y-o-y and exports -0.3% to boot.

NO HUGS

Military build-up needed to protect China’s overseas interests, officials say’, as the Chinse constitution is revised to insist that the country holds world class armed forces. At the same time, the Washington Post quotes “an American who knows the Chinese leadership well” saying Xi is convinced China and the US are heading towards war. From the US side, its nuclear forces chief says Ukraine is ‘just the warmup’ for a larger crisis“The big one is coming, and it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested a long time.”

In Ukraine, Pepe Escobar –a serious analyst in the same manner as Lord Haw-Haw, but a useful an indicator for that– is now shrilling Russia will be forced to move against Odessa by Spring. Which is when the bulls say China will open up: which would rather push commodity prices up; and so Fed Funds. There are also whispers that the US wants Zelensky to negotiate.

Serious US strategists underline that due to military scarcity there needs to be an imminent withdrawal of US forces from Europe and reallocation to the Indo-Pacific, with Europe stepping up to the task at hand. Which the comfortable Western part patting itself on the back that climate change has tempered its energy crisis so far refuses to do; and as German industry needed to do so decamps abroad – including to China; and as Chancellor Scholz pens an op-ed saying Berlin will adapt to a multipolar world, rather than openly supporting the US-backed order it has flourished under. (Meaning sell cars to all sides?)

NO PRODUCTION

Pentagon acquisition chief Bill LaPlante now says Ukraine has helped him understand what really matters: “Production.” That is GDP by supply, not GDP by demand: commodities, industry, and logistics, not services and finance. Who knew?

“We as a country did our best to not do production. We all accepted that just in time was the way to go. That is why the US cannot produce Stinger missiles fast enough: production was shut down in 2008… I challenge all of you to ask about that if somebody give you a really cool liquored up story… – ask them when it’s entering production, ask them about numbers… is it going to work well against China? Don’t tell me it’s got AI and quantum, I don’t care…. The sausage making is still going on…. we need to do multiyear procurements for munitions.” He adds that NATO standards don’t get to the point of “interchangeable,” and an industry executive told him that they would have to force companies to do so because it makes firms less competitive.

I have stressed for some time that you won’t see Western firms forced to do things by the likes of Jeremy Corbyn or Bernie Sanders, but you will by guys like LaPlante, who concludes: “The tech bros aren’t helping us too much.” On which…

NO TWITS?

US payrolls didn’t show it, but up to 1/2 of all the well-paid roles at Twitter are apparently going. (And Meta is following the lead; and others will follow.) This matters, and not just for another stab at the Fed pivot play.

Twitter is the modern Town Square for the Western elite. It’s now been bought by one of their own, who says he will back free speech and make ‘blue tick’ status something anyone can buy rather than earn by propagating the ‘right message’. As a result, corporate advertisers are walking away. The same corporations who deal with noxious global regimes are not prepared to associate with a platform sticking to the US First Amendment right to free speech. Even the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has stepped in(!) Elon, clearly nobody in power is in favour of free speech; or of free markets; or even free trade if they are the net importer; but they are all interested in free money, which Twitter can no longer rely on.

NO MAJORITY

Tomorrow is the US midterm elections. Market analysts who think reading fivethirtyeight.com gives them political insight, or that polling firms are not as biased as central banks, are waking up to the fact that the Blue bounce in the summer was a mirage and that Republicans are likely to see a Red Tsunami that wipes out the Democrats’ House majority and 50-50 Senate tie. It would also strongly suggest a strong Red base for a presidential win in 2024 with an even larger Congressional majority… and, yes, led by Donald Trump, as potential rivals already start to drop out, and shots are taken across the bows of others.

The implications of this week’s election will be manifold, even if hysterical claims about the end of democracy look as tragicomically wide of the mark as they are with Twitter. They include that President Biden may become a lame (and impeached?) duck that will only leave him foreign policy to focus on for two years. What that implies against the current geopolitical backdrop, and his recent claim that he wishes to see the people of Iran “freed”, is anyone’s guess. We are also likely to see a continued US trend towards populism, and industrial policy, and neo-mercantilism.

What might this mean for fiscal and monetary policy as interest payments on federal debt soars, but the need for an even more powerful military does in tandem? What you are thinking is probably wrong if you try to frame things in a traditional manner.

NO NONSENSE

To summarise the state of flux we are all in, the Financial Times points to the appeal of neo-Marxism in Japan under the new label of “degrowth”; alongside neo-Marxism in China (which may also mean low growth). It also carries a remarkable op-ed from Jajan Ganesh calling for an end to intra-elite sniping –pointing to Rishi Sunak having a go at cosmopolitan “North London”– because if the mob comes, it won’t be able to differentiate between liberal, rich North and conservative, rich West London. He concludes, “There is a non-trivial chance of civil unrest against the haves in the coming years. How sweet to think that you will be spared because you are merely rich, rather than rich and interesting.” And this is in the FT, not the Morning Star!

NO ATTENDANCE

COP27 is taking place in Sham el-Chic. Some fossil fuel fans are skipping. The government leaders who are there are burning more fossil fuels than ever. And Greta is trying to get rich from her book telling us how we need to destroy capitalism.

NO EASY ANSWERS

I am not going to tell you exactly what to buy or sell against this slide into metacrisis, just as I am not going to tell you exactly what went up or down. What I can point out is that there are no easy answers and no easy trades anymore. Anyone who tells you otherwise needs to be told “NO!”

END

7.OIL ISSUES/USA AND THE WORLD/NATURAL GAS/DIESEL ETC

USA natural as futures jump as cold weathers swoops across the uSA

(zerohedge)

US NatGas Futures Jump As Frigid Weather Set To Swoop Across Country

MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 08:40 AM

US natural gas futures bottomed on Oct. 24 after a 50% haircut on warmer weather. In the last two weeks, prices have staged a rally on the prospect of cold weather and tighter supplies. Last Monday, we penned a note titled “US NatGas Spikes As Temperatures Are About To Dive Nationwide.” Now, with colder weather sweeping across the US, NatGas prices are up a staggering 49% in eleven sessions. 

On Monday morning alone, NatGas futures are up 10%. Bloomberg said the move higher is weather-related, “as a winter storm hits the Pacific Northwest and frigid weather is expected across most of the country.” 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a 6-10 day temperature outlook for the lower 48 states showing that most of the country will experience below-average temperatures. 

An 8-14 day temperature outlook by the weather agency also points to continued below-average temperatures for much of the US. 

After an unseasonably warm end of October and the first week of November, the warm spell is forecasted to turn today. Average temperatures are expected around 58 degrees Fahrenheit and will revert to a downward sloping 30-year mean of the mid-40s by mid-month. 

Colder weather indicates heating demand will rise, and so will the demand for NatGas. 

The latest rally in NatGas outlines how sensitive traders are to potential cold snaps, as below-normal stockpiles and surging exports could strain domestic stockpiles in a deep freeze in the months ahead. 

end

No kidding: people are fed up with soaring electricity bills

(zerohedge)

“People Are Fed Up”: Soaring Electricity Bills Become New Pain Point For Biden

MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 09:21 AM

Utility companies are increasing electricity prices for American households ahead of the heating season. Some households take on debt to cover their power bills, while millions cannot pay. High electricity bills will be yet another uncomfortable political pain point for the Biden administration, according to Bloomberg.  

Ahead of the US midterm elections, we outlined in several pieces that rising commodity prices are forcing utility companies to negotiate power contracts with customers higher. 

Readers may recall we recently titled a note, Your Next Pain Will Be Soaring Electricity Costs As Energy Crisis Comes To America.” A gubernatorial debate in California not too long ago focused on skyrocketing electricity bills. Across the country, in Maine, politicians argued whether renewable energy is driving up electricity prices. A New York Republican candidate for governor pitched a move for the state to reverse a ban on oil and natural gas drilling to secure energy. 

Discussions about power bills across the country come as at least 20 million households — or about 1 in 6 American homes — are behind on their utility bills. This winter’s energy supply crunch could increase power bills and devastate households. 

And it’s not just rising power bills households are contending with –it’s also rising prices for everything from food, shelter, and gas at the pump — and this will influence how Americans vote on Tuesday. 

The latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, which traditionally tends to spin topics to the hard left, shows a whopping 90% of Americans now rate inflation and economic turmoil as their primary concern ahead of elections. 

“People are fed up,” Tom Content, executive director of Citizens Utility Board of Wisconsin, an energy-advocacy group, told Bloomberg. 

Luckily, warmer temperatures across the US delayed heating demand, though weather forecasts point to the average temperature dropping towards a 30-year mean by mid-month. This means heating demand will soon rise, and so will power bills

Unlike in Europe, US lawmakers have yet to offer widespread utility-bill subsidies as discontent about overall inflation continues to grow. 

Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, said there’s a possibility that lawmakers could offer subsidies, but it’s difficult to read households because there are limited questionairs by US polling firms that ask about power bills. 

Wolfe doesn’t believe the Biden administration is at the point of offering subsides or intervening in power markets to protect consumers from soaring rates, though he said, “there’s no reason it can’t happen.” 

Bloomberg noted important swing states for the midterm elections are experiencing a dramatic rise in power bills and overall inflation. This could be an issue for Democrats come tomorrow as Americans will vote with their empty wallets as many can barely afford to pay bills after 18 months of negative real wage growth, collapsing savings, and mounting credit card debt. 

Maria Beltran, 50, a Milwaukee resident, who lives on a fixed income, said her monthly electricity bill doubled in the past year. She spends her days as a volunteer community organizer to boost awareness about the inflation crisis. 

“I want energy that’s affordable for me,” Beltran said. “I’ll vote for whoever I truly believe will make a change.” 

Beltran’s concerns are seen across the country. No matter the state, Republican political ads, whether on small signs on the side of the road, on giant billboards, or even on television, have bashed Democrats for stoking inflation, resulting in a cost-of-living crisis. 

“Rising prices in general are an issue for voters for this midterm election, whether it is related to utility bills or higher gas prices,” said Mark Baldassare, chief executive officer and polling expert at the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan think tank.

Tens of millions of lower-income families are being squeezed and are quickly running out of discretionary income. They’re tapped out, and many are becoming increasingly frustrated with Democrats. This discontent may continue through the 2024 presidential elections. 

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

VIET NAM

Viet Nam gas stations are starting to close due to widespread shortages of gas. Distributors cannot pass on higher costs.

(zerohedge)

Vietnam Gas Stations Start To Close Due To Widespread Shortages

MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 06:55 AM

While the US awaits with bated breath to see if there will be any diesel inventories after the midterm elections (see “Forget Oil, The Real Crisis Is Diesel Inventories: The US Has Just 25 Days Left”), other countries are already seeing gas stations run dry. Take Ho Chi Minh City, the city known as Vietnam’s economic engine, whose gas stations are being forced to suspend operations due to shortages of the fuel.

Believe it or not, it is possible to have an even worse government response to an energy crisis than that of the US democrats, and Vietnam is it: a tangle of reactions to a constrained petroleum market – including government price controls and distributors’ decreasing profits – has worsened the country’s gasoline shortage, increasing the burden on domestic refineries.

While these refineries are moving to increase gasoline production, it will take time for Vietnam to fully solve the fundamental problems behind its petroleum crisis according to Nikkei Asia.

The government in mid-October called on two refineries to boost output to the maximum extent possible in a bid to meet domestic demand. The government also asked distributors to speed deliveries to gas stations. PetroVietnam, the country’s largest state-run oil company, responded by raising the operation rate of its Dung Quat refinery in the central province of Quang Ngai to 109% from 107%. A refinery executive said the rate can be pushed to 110% or even higher, should the government make further requests.

Oil refineries generally save some production capacity even when declaring they are running at 100%. When they crank up production during emergencies, their operation rate can surpass 100%. At the Nghi Son refinery in the northern province of Thanh Hoa, in which Idemitsu Kosan of Japan has a major stake, production at the beginning of the year had to be substantially cut as it failed to procure sufficient funds to import crude oil. Since April, however, the refinery has been operating near full capacity. According to a refinery source, the plant can afford to increase its operation rate.

Alas, these measures are too late to fix what is already a major crisis: since early October, several hundred gas stations in Ho Chi Minh City, the country’s biggest metropolis, and in surrounding cities in southern Vietnam have had to occasionally suspend operations, saying they have nothing to sell.

One reason for this is that distributors have been unable to pass on their rising costs due to what is effectively a government cap on gasoline prices, according to industry sources. Smaller distributors have been hit particularly hard, discouraging them from supplying stations as their profits turn too meager.

Another reason gas stations are temporarily closing is the lack of refineries in the southern part of Vietnam, where Ho Chi Minh City is located and which accounts for about 45% of the country’s demand for oil and petrochemical products.

Even in the capital of Hanoi, some citizens have rushed to gas stations fearing that the fuel shortage will soon spread north. “Another gas station was closed,” said Nam, a weary-looking commuter refueling his motorcycle. “Here I at least got gas after waiting for 20 minutes.”

Since motorcycles are a common means to commute to work and school in the country, the gasoline situation is hampering the daily activities of many Vietnamese.

Two refineries meet a little more than 70% of domestic demand for oil products, but they have found themselves at a disadvantage since the start of the Ukraine war, setting off a chain reaction in global energy markets. Now that “European countries are buying large amounts of petroleum products,” a high-ranking government official said, “a small country [like Vietnam] finds it hard to augment its purchases.”

And here is why central planning always fails: in Vietnam, the government sets the retail price of gasoline, altering it every 10 days in line with price movements on the international market. The country’s refineries must accept the government mandate, which means enduring today’s especially volatile international prices.

But there are also domestic factors behind Vietnam’s supply constraints. Early this year, the Nghi Son refinery’s operating rate fell, leading to a shortage of gasoline across the country. The government itself is adding to the sense of crisis despite the fact that it is now considering more frequent price updates and altering the formula it uses to change prices.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has said more timely price adjustments could help matters. As things now stand, the price control system tends to make oil-related businesses hold off on selling their products as they wait for international prices to go up again, giving them the opportunity to fatten their profits.

Distributors, meanwhile, complain that recent increases in transportation costs have not been reflected in the government-set prices and that their troubles deepened earlier this year when the government lowered the mandated prices for oil products. This resulted in losses as the distributors still had to pay high prices on the international market. Now the companies are unable to maintain sufficient stocks.

As the government explores solutions, refineries are talking about adding capacity. The PetroVietnam group’s Dung Quat refinery is planning to expand its refining capacity by nearly 20%. That would allow it to produce about 170,000 barrels a day by 2026. Carrying out the plan is expected to cost more than $1.2 billion. PetroVietnam is wholly owned by the government. Management and government officials are in final talks to put the plan into action, though financing issues must be resolved before work on the expansion can begin.

The company also plans to build a complex in the southern province of Ba Ria-Vung Tau comprising a refinery and a petrochemical plant. A refinery near Ho Chi Minh City is expected to help reduce the cost of transporting petroleum products to the important commercial hub and surrounding region.

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.9978 UP    0.0035 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 146.92   UP  0.132 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//

GBP/USA 1.1444 UP   0.0075

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.02 PTS OR 0.23% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED  UP  434.77 POINTS OR 2.69% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.56%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 434.77 PTS OR 2.69%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 7.02 PTS OR 0.23%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.56% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 484,77 OR 2.69%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1676.80

silver:$20.70

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 110.39 DOWN .39 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.282% UP 2  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.248% DOWN 0 AND 1/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.368%// UP 2 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.47  UP 1   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.324%  UP 10 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.9999  UP  .0057   or 57 basis points//

USA/Japan: 146.58 DOWN 0.037 OR YEN UP 4 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1467 UP .0099 OR  99 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar  UP .02122 OR 212 BASIS pts  to 1.3530

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN) AT 7.2289

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.2382

TURKISH LIRA:  18.58  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.248

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from FRIDAY at  4.197% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   4.282  UP 4  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 110.25 DOWN 0.52 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 31.80 PTS OR  0.45%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 74.80POINTS OR 0.55%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 1.67 PTS OR 0.03% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 14.50 OR  0.18%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 213,74 PTS OR  0.92%

WTI Oil price 91.58 12: EST

Brent Oil:  97.72   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  61.00UP 0  AND 53/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.324

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.5725

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0025 UP .0082    OR  82  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1519 UP  .0150 or  150 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.670% 

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.54 DOWN 0.045//YEN UP 5 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3487 UP 0.0015  (CDN dollar, DOWN 15 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 91.97

Brent OIL:  98.04

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.209%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS PTS to 4.317%

USA dollar index:110.00 DOWN .17 POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.50

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  61.00  UP 0 AND  53/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 423.78 PTS OR 1.31 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 119.97 PTS OR 1.11%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 24.35 DOWN 0.20 PTS (0.85)%

GLD: $151.81 DOWN 0.62 OR 0.40%

SLV/ $19.15  DOWN $0.11 OR 0.57%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

As Midterms Loom, Stocks Rally, Everything Else Drops

MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 04:00 PM

A very quiet day with no FedSpeak and no macro (consumer credit data ‘meh’) ended with stocks higher amid tumbling VIX (who fears the midterms?); bonds, bitcoin, bullion, and black gold all lower.

Futures continued to levitate overnight (despite a weaker open driven by AAPL production headlines). At the US cash open, stocks quickly puked back their gains with Small Caps, Nasdaq, and S&P all going red. Markets oscillated quietly ahead of the midterms, then at around 1345ET – with absolutely no headline catalyst – a wave of buying suddenly hit every US index, lifting everything comfortably green on the day…

The Dow managed to get back into the green from pre-FOMC statement (not pre-Powell puke)…

VIX was sold all day after gapping higher (who needs hedges ahead of elections and CPI)…

The sudden surge in stocks coincided with an aggressive squeeze in the most-shorted stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

And a big buy program flushed through cash equities…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were sold today but traders said the pressure more driven by a heavy corporate calendar than any macro insights. The long-end underperformed (+7bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield rose to test the post-Powell spike highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate trajectory expectations were basically unchanged on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar tumbled for the second day in a row, finding support at one-month lows. This is the biggest 2-day drop since March 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Brazil’s Real continued to give back its post-Lula-Election short-squeeze gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Friday’s crypto gains have begun to unwind amid FTX/Binance aggro. Bitcoin fell back below $21k…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold went nowhere today despite USD weakness, unable to hold above $1680…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended lower as hopes of  China COVID restrictions easing faded…

Finally, there was one other asset that rallied, NatGas soared on cold weather fears (and pipeline anxiety)…

Winter is coming in the US and it’s going to be expensive (just don’t blame Biden).

END

I) / LATE MORNING//  TRADING//JOBS REPORT

AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC

end

ii) USA DATA/

Used car prices collapse as the USA economy is now undergoing a severe downturn

(zerohedge)

Used-Car Prices Collapse The Most Since Lehman Meltdown

MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 02:01 PM

With soaring borrowing costs, the Federal Reserve has slammed the brakes on the once-booming used car market. The latest data on wholesale used-vehicle prices show October’s decline on a year-over-year basis was the worst since the financial crisis over a decade ago. 

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for October declined to 200, or about 10.6%, the worst decline since December 2008 when the global economy was melting down (and the 5th largest decline ever)… 

The Fed’s rapid pace of rate hikes this year is slowing demand, as Edmunds data showed the average annual percentage rate on used-car loans was a staggering 10% for some borrowers

The index that tracks the price of what car dealerships pay at auto auctions has slid for 8 of the nine months and declined for the 5th straight month. 

Since the Fed hasn’t blinked (yet) and borrowing costs continue to skyrocket, wholesale used-vehicle prices could cool significantly more. 

The slump in wholesale used-vehicle prices could be a harbinger of when the Fed begins to hike interest rates at a slower pace. 

“Used car prices, once considered the barometer of how bad inflation has become, are now moderating. In fact, they have been dropping for a year. As supply-chain shortages moderate, this closely-watched gauge will likely continue to decline, helping curb overall inflation. The move may also support the narrative that the Fed can scale back its rate increases, boosting stocks,” Bloomberg’s MLIV Vincent Cignarella wrote. 

The bad news about sliding wholesale used-vehicle prices is when they crush the retail market, there will be so many new buyers underwater in their vehicle loans. 

Signs of distress are already materializing for consumers with subprime and deep subprime credit scores, according to Mish Talk

As delinquencies rise and the layoff cycle begins, the repossession wave has already started.

And the used car bubble could cascade into the structured product segment of the financial market as big banks hold a lot of consumer debt. 

Meanwhile, shares of Carvana crashed 24% Monday after the company missed Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations for the third quarter as the demand for used cars plummeted. 

Last month, the largest US chain of car dealerships, AutoNation, whose CEO, Mike Manley, warned the used car market showed signs of imploding. 

Separately, Hertz Global Holdings reported its third-quarter earnings that showed depreciation costs were rising due to its used car prices at auction fetching lower values. 

Readers may recall it was back in April when we asked a straightforward question: “Are Used Car Prices About To Peak For Real This Time?” 

… and with a little bit of time, we were right. We expect deals, especially in the used car luxury segment, to materialize in 2023. 

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.

Democrats panic:  Maxine Waters tells Fed’s Powell; “enough is enough”

(zerohedge)

Democrats’ Panic Goes To ’11’, “Deeply Troubled” Maxine Waters Tells Fed’s Powell: “Enough Is Enough”

FRIDAY, NOV 04, 2022 – 05:20 PM

Who could have seen this coming?

Back In July, we wrote “Democrats Prepare To Unleash Hell On Fed Chair Powell For The Coming Recession“, in which we laid out the “cunning” Democrat plan to blame Fed Chair Jerome Powell for the economic hurricane that is imminent, as poll numbers started to slide and the Midterms looked like a disaster:

“It is important for the Fed not to overreach and trigger a recession unnecessarily, as part of its effort to bring inflation down,” said Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the No. 5-ranked House Democratic leader.

“Inflation is a global problem, and is actually not as bad in America as it is in almost every other developed economy in the world,” he told Bloomberg.

Then, in September, none other than Senator Elizabeth Warren unleashed hell on Mr.Powell, tweeting that:

“Chair Powell just announced another extreme interest rate hike while forecasting higher unemployment. I’ve been warning that Chair Powell’s Fed would throw millions of Americans out of work — and I fear he’s already on the path to doing so.”

Interestingly, we noted at the time that Senate Baking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, defended Powell after Warren’s comments during an interview on Bloomberg Television

Well that has all changed now…

Two weeks ago, Brown wrote a sternly worded letter to The Fed urging them to stop hiking rates:

“For working Americans who already feel the crush of inflation, job losses will make it much worse. We can’t risk the livelihoods of millions of Americans who can’t afford it. I ask that you don’t forget your responsibility to promote maximum employment and that the decisions you make at the next FOMC meeting reflect your commitment to the dual mandate.”

The last week, the progressives chimed in with Warren, Sanders, Tlaib et al. all slamming The Fed’s “commitment to ‘act aggressively’ with rate-hikes.”

“…reflect an apparent disregard for the livelihoods of millions of working Americans, and we are deeply concerned that your interest rate hikes risk slowing the economy to a crawl while failing to slow rising prices”

And now, the panic among the Democrats has escalated further, with Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA), Chairwoman of the House Financial Services Committee, going as far as to tell Fed Chair Powell: “enough is enough.”

I am deeply troubled by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) rapid series of super-sized interest rate hikes, which may inflict unnecessary pain on millions of individuals and families while sending the economy into a devastating recession,” said Chairwoman Waters.

“This week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision marks the fourth consecutive mega rate hike by the Fed, resulting in the highest federal funds rate since before the 2008 global financial crisis and the fastest set of rate hikes by the Fed in four decades. Enough is enough.

She goes on…

“…I am concerned that rapid and continued interest rate hikes may only serve in the long run to be an over-correction that results in recession rather than help solve these root causes of inflation.  I urge you to take into account these issues and exercise extreme caution going forward.”

Notice a pattern in these statements: “millions of Americans’ livelihoods are at risk”.

Translation: Democrats have finally realized that a recession/market crash does not poll well…

But hey, remember The Fed is apolitical and independent and anyone who tries to sway them is a treasonous traitor.

When President Trump publicly spoke about The Fed cutting rates, some former Fed officials were not happy”

“I am not pleased,” said Carl Tannenbaum, a former Chicago Fed official and chief economist at Northern Trust.

“The remarks certainly aren’t an immediate threat to Fed independence, but they break with the tradition of respectful distance.”

Randall Kroszner, a former Fed governor, said the central bank has withstood political pressure before and will continue to do so under Mr. Powell’s leadership.

“The Fed has often faced political pressures — from Congress, presidents, Treasury secretaries and innumerable outside groups,” said Mr. Kroszner, an economics professor at the University of Chicago.

“My experience at the Fed is consistent with what Jay Powell recently said — being non-political is deep in the Fed’s DNA — and I believe that Jay will keep it that way.”

As a reminder, here are President Biden’s own words from June:

“My plan is to address inflation. That starts with a simple proposition: respect the Fed, respect the Fed’s independence, which I have done and will continue to do,” Biden said.

It appears that has changed.

And all this despite the economy being “strong as hell”…

As a reminder, the odds of a recession within the next 12 months are now 100%

In any case, what we said long ago when we disagreed with Zoltan Pozsar – namely that the Fed’s inflation fight will end the moment politicians tell the “independent Fed” to end it – is starting to come true. As a reminder, this is what we argued back in August in “Zoltan Pozsar: Powell Will Push The Economy Into A “Depression” To Curb Inflation“:

The problem with this line of thinking is that Pozsar thinks anyone – whether Congressional Republicans or Democrats – will agree to a “depression” just to contain inflation. Spoiler alert: they won’t as it means an immediate end of all their political (and all other careers). Instead, they will browbeat Powell and the Fed, into doing just enough to avoid this outcome even if it means raising the inflation target, which we are 100% certain is how this episode ends: with the Fed raising its inflation target quietly from 2% to 3% or more, with the usual hedonic adjustments of course.

To summarize: the problem with Pozsar’s latest note is that it is too rational, too logical, and it reduces to the following – US society can be fixed at the individual level by realigning incentives, motivations and beliefs, and the Fed will do what is right even if it means the collapse of the US political system. Alas, that will never happen, and that’s why Zoltan’s argument fails. After all, it’s far easier to simply print a few trillion (again) and kick the can for a few more years and dump the plate of troubles on some other unhappy politician. It’s also why the gating constraint here is not inflation but the dollar reserve currency status: at the end of the day, the Fed will devalue the dollar to permit both more monetary and Fiscal easing thus keeping both the lower and upper classes happy, and it will keep doing so until it risks hyperinflation – pushing the dollar-based system to the point beyond which the world will no longer accept it; after all  that was the endgame since the day the Fed was launched in 1913. Whether the system is actually pushed beyond said point, well that’s the real $64 trillion question.

Still think that politicians – and especially Democrats – will sit quietly and blindly ignore how high the Fed is hiking rates if it means that to normalize inflation back to 2% it means nearly doubling the number of unemployed Americans (and a crushing recession to boot). Spoiler alert: no, they won’t, and this may be one of the very rare occasions when Elizabeth Warren is actually right to worry about what the coming mass layoff wave means for Democrats… and the 2024 presidential election.

Expect Powell to be the scapegoat for any red-wave next week…

END

And he should:  Manchin massacres Biden over outrageous cola plant closure comments.

(zerohedge)

Manchin Massacres Biden Over “Outrageous” Coal Plant Closure Comments, “Divorced From Reality”

SATURDAY, NOV 05, 2022 – 12:00 PM

Senator Joe Manchin is pissed after President Biden said his administration would ‘shut down’ all of America’s coal plants and replace them with ‘wind and solar’ – comments that couldn’t come at a worse time for Democratic candidates in battleground states that are home to blue-collar Americans and the coal plants they work in, given next week’s midterm elections.

“Folks, it’s also now cheaper to generate electricity from wind and solar than it is from coal and oil. Literally cheaper. Not a joke. I was just — and so we can accommodate that transition,” Biden said last week during a speech at communications company ViaSat in San Diego County.

“I was in Massachusetts about a month ago on the site of the largest old coal plant in America. Guess what? It cost them too much money.  They can’t count. No one is building new coal plants because they can’t rely on it, even if they have all the coal guaranteed for the rest of their existence of the plant. So it’s going to become a wind generation. And all they’re doing is — it’s going to save them a hell of a lot of money, and they’re using the same transmission line that transmitted the coal-fired electric on.  We’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America and having wind and solar,” Biden continued.

As the National Review notes, “Biden’s message could disadvantage Democrats just three days before midterms, considering that many of the battleground states that will determine the balance of power in Congress are home to coal plants and the blue-collar Americans who work in them. Pennsylvania has 24 plants, Ohio has 15 plants, and Michigan has 13 plants.”

In particular, Biden’s comments stand to hurt Pennsylvania Senate Candidate John Fetterman, who has flip-flopped on Fracking between 2018 and 2022 – finally admitting during a debate last month that he’s for it.

Manchin is livid

“President Biden’s comments are not only outrageous and divorced from reality, they ignore the severe economic pain the American people are feeling because of rising energy costs, West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin fired back.

“Comments like these are the reason the American people are losing trust in President Biden,” he continued, adding “Let me be clear, this is something that the President has never said to me. Being cavalier about the loss of coal jobs for men and women in West Virginia and across the country who literally put their lives on the line to help build and power this country is offensive and disgusting.”

Of course, a pissed off Manchin won’t have anywhere near the same impact as it once did, assuming Republicans take back the House, Senate, or both chambers in next week’s midterm elections.

END

Now Comcast begins laying off some of its workforce. The deluge is just beginning!

(zerohedge)

Comcast Begins Laying Off “A Very Small Portion” Of Its Workforce

MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 12:05 PM

The deluge of layoffs could only be just beginning…

In what we see as a trend not stopping anytime soon, Comcast has now joined the ranks of massive major U.S. corporations announcing layoffs. 

The sprawling telecom giant “terminated an unspecified number of employees” last week, according to a report by Fierce Telecom. In a comment to the report, Comcast said it had laid off a “very small portion of its workforce”. 

The layoffs were made in “Comcast Cable’s field organization across a range of different markets” and were focused on in-house and back office positions, the report says. Comcast had hinted on its Q3 2022 earnings call that layoffs could be in the offing. 

The report says that Comcast was “working with impacted employees to either help them find other positions within the company or provide outplacement and severance pay.”

The layoffs come after the company’s NBCUniversal business cut 37 employees in September and 45 employees in October due to programming restructuring. 

Comcast President and CFO Mike Cavanagh had said during the company’s recent earnings call: “As we enter the fourth quarter and look to our year ahead, we remain focused on driving long-term growth during an increasingly challenged economic environment.”

He continued: “As a result, we expect we’ll be taking severance and other cost reduction-related charges in the fourth quarter in anticipation of expense reduction actions that will provide benefits in 2023 and beyond.”

The company guided for a loss of broadband subscribers in Q4, namely due to damage from Hurricane Ian in Florida. 

Comcast joins names industry names like Verizon, Zayo and Cox Communications – as well as other major U.S. companies like Wells Fargo and, most recently, Meta – in announcing layoffs. As we said last week – given the letters from various high-ranking Democratic Party officials – we know who the scapegoat for these job losses will be.

end

As outline in previous commentaries, we are witnessing a huge surge in small business rent delinquencies in October

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Record 7% Surge In Small Business Rent Delinquency In October

MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Small businesses are struggling to pay rent due to higher rent inflation and fewer customers. The struggles vary by type of business…

Record Surge in Small Business Delinquencies 

Alignable reports Record Surge In Rent Delinquency: Up 7% In October, Totaling 37% For U.S. SMBs

Due to ongoing economic challenges, small business owners’ ability to pay their full rent on time in October took a major hit based on a new Alignable poll. In fact, the U.S. rent delinquency rate among small businesses jumped 7% in just one month, marking the largest, most rapid increase in 2022.

In September, rent delinquency was at a six-month low, as optimism for Q4’s earning potential was high and some small business owners reported increased sales.

But now, a month later, 37% of small business owners in the U.S. were unable to pay their rent in full and on time in October, compared to just 30% in September.  

Poll Results 

  • Higher rents for 51% of SMBs
  • Cumulative, negative impact of more than a year of high inflation, which has absorbed most sales gains
  • Recessionary fears
  • Steeper-than-usual gas prices (rising yet again)
  • Ongoing increases in supply chain costs
  • Rising labor expenses and shortages
  • Slowdown in consumer spending.

The overall delinquency rate jumped to 37 percent in October from 30 percent in September and from 26 percent in December of 2021. 

Manufacturers are doing OK, only up one percentage point since December of 2021.

Artists/Musicians are up from 10 percent in December of 2021 to 37 percent in October of 2022.

This is an interesting set of numbers, especially education. Have parents stopped sending their kids to daycare? 

The only relevant article I could find is from February 24, 2022.

PEW reports Working Parents Face Continued Chaos Despite Reopened Schools

Federal data analyzed by Stateline shows that parents of small children have left the workforce in much higher numbers than other working adults during the pandemic.

In the last quarter of 2021, 6% fewer jobs were held by parents of children ages 5-12, both mothers and fathers, compared with the same period in 2019, while other prime-age workers were only 1% short of pre-pandemic job levels, according to a Stateline analysis of census numbers provided by ipums.org at the Institute for Social Research and Data Innovation at the University of Minnesota.

Parents, especially mothers, have lagged in returning to work, partly because of periodic school closures due to COVID-19 outbreaks.

“At the beginning of the pandemic, at least everybody was on the same page and realized we were all in this terrible thing together. Now it feels like parents are alone in this. We’re forgotten,” said William Scarborough, a University of North Texas assistant professor who has a 3-year-old son in a pre-K program that’s often canceled. Children under 5 years old cannot yet be vaccinated, making them more vulnerable to COVID-19.

Is it still a Covid issue or did that morph into a cost issue?

Also note the surge in gyms and beauty salons. 

Not to worry, citing jobs, president Biden says the economy is strong.

Lost in the Strong Jobs Meme, Full Time Employment is Down 572,000 Since May

I suggest, Lost in the Strong Jobs Meme, Full Time Employment is Down 572,000 Since May

Others suggest that the decline in full time employment is noise.

So, I did a follow-up.

Please consider Is Full Time Employment a Trend or Noise? Let’s Compare Today to the Great Recession

My conclusion remains the same. The decline isn’t noise. It mirrors what happened in 2007.

People are struggling with inflation and a falloff in business activity. There’s no doubt about that. 

See the above link for discussion.

*  *  *

Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

end

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS////INFLATION WATCH

SWAMP STORIES

KING REPORT


 

GREG HUNTER REPORT INTERVIEWING MARTIN ARMSTRONG

Usawatchdog.com/there-may-not-be-a-2024-election-martin-armstrong/

There May Not Be a 2024 Election – Martin Armstrong

By Greg Hunter On November 5, 2022 In Political Analysis59 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says, “The cheating in the midterm election next week is going to be so great that it is almost impossible to make a prediction. . . . In a fair midterm election, the Republicans would win the House and the Senate.”

So,m what does his Socrates program see for next week?  Armstrong, says, “It’s going to be tight, and the Republicans have a shot at taking the House.  Technically, they should take the House and the Senate.  I am just not sure.  The corruption is so bad, it’s crazy.  Pennsylvania sent out hundreds of thousands of ballots to people who are not documented or even American.  I’ve gotten emails from people in Canada, they are getting mail-in ballots.  They mailed them to Canada. . . .Where this ends up, who knows?  It’s just so corrupt, it is over the top.  It doesn’t matter who wins.  Nobody is going to accept this thing, and that is the problem.”

The cheating is going to be so in your face President Trump may not even be able to run for President two years from now.  Armstrong contends, “We may not even have an election in 2024.  It is not looking very good, and it’s probably because this election is not going to be accepted.  When it is so over-the-top corrupt, what do you do for the next one?  The United States will not exist after 2032.  After 2028 and 2029, we are going to have to redesign a government from scratch.  America is being destroyed.  Republics always end in absolute corruption.  We just saw the same thing happen in Brazil.  They staged a major effort to take Bolsonaro out. . . . This is a worldwide effort.  They had to get rid of Trump.  The other one who stood in their way is Bolsonaro.  Then there is Putin (Russia) and Xi Jinping (China).  I think you are going to have historians look back at this 50 years from now, and they will call this period ‘The Climate Change Wars’. . . .They are trying to take down as much oil energy capacity as possible.”

Armstrong is still seeing very strong signals on domestic violence everywhere.  Armstrong explains, “Our computer is showing it’s going to be a rocket launch for volatility and civil unrest next year.”

Armstrong also contends there will be a major loss of confidence in government around the world.  That means gold will start having big demand from big money.  Armstrong also predicts, “The whole monetary system as we know it is collapsing.  That was what the bond crisis in the UK was about.”

There is much more in the 1-hour and 7-minute interview for 11.5.22.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, cycle expert and author of the new book “The Plot to Seize Russia, Manufacturing World War III.” Armstrong is giving the book away if you attend in-person the “2022 World Economic Conference” in Orlando, FL, next weekend.

(sawatchdog.com/there-may-not-be-a-2024-election-martin-armstrong/)

After the Interview: 

There is some free information, analysis and articles on ArmstrongEconomics.com.

Armstrong’s book, “The Plot to Seize Russia, Manufacturing World War III,” will be given away if you sign up for the “In-Person” conference below.  There will be a book buying link posted soon on ArmstrongEconomics.com, so be on the lookout for it.

For tickets to Armstrong’s “2022 World Economic Conference” in Orlando, FL, November 11, 12, and 13, click here.  (There are three different tickets levels: Virtual, Virtual Plus and In-Person.  Just scroll down to learn about all three.)

If you are looking to buy physical gold and silver coins, check out our sponsor Discount Gold and Silver Trading. Ask for Melody Cedarstrom, the owner, at 1-800-375-4188.

SEE YOU TOMORROW

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