NOV 8/BANKERS DEMAND GOLD FROM THEIR SPECULATOR SHORTS AND THAT PROPELS BOTH GOLD AND SILVER: GOLD CLOSED UP $34.40 TO $1712.15//SILVER CLOSED UP 41 CENTS TO $21.34//PLATINUM RISES A STRONG $15.95 TO $997.95//PALLADIUM IS UP $26.65// COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//FUNERAL HOMES THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE DOING A HUGE BUSINESS BUT INSURANCE COMPANIES GETTING KILLED DUE TO COVID INJURY DEATHS (ALEX BERENSON)//GOOD COMMENTARY OF IVERMECTIN//GOOD COMMENTARY FROM AMBROSE EVAN PRITCHARD//CHINA’S ECONOMY SUDDENLY CONTRACTS HUGELY AS BOTH IMPORTS AND EXPORTS PLUMMET//EUROPEANS ARE IN BIG TROUBLE COPING WITH ELECTRICITY AND GAS BILLS (COMMENTARY: MY EUROPE)//POLAND WANTS THE MONEY IT IS OWED, IF THEY DO NOT GET IT PREPARE FOR A POLEXIT//ENGLAND PREPARES FOR A STEALTH TAX BY NOT INDEXING PENSIONS (THEY ARE FROZEN UNTIL 2026)//USA ELECTION RESULTS WILL BE BROUGHT TO YOU TOMORROW//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
190 H BMO CAPITAL 2 323 C HSBC 1 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 4 661 C JP MORGAN 7 737 C ADVANTAGE 17 2 800 C MAREX SPEC 3 880 C CITIGROUP 1 880 H CITIGROUP 11
TOTAL: 24 24 MONTH TO DATE: 4,882
JPMORGAN STOPPED 7/24
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV. CONTRACT: 24 NOTICES FOR 2400 OZ or 0.07465 TONNES
total notices so far: 4882 contracts for 488,200 oz (15.1850 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 161 : for 805,000 oz
END
Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX
With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $34.40
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A BIG CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD// /THIS MAKES NO SENSE@@!!!! THIS IS A CRIME SCENE
INVENTORY RESTS AT 905.49 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.48
AT THE SLV// :/BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 1.751 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 475.929 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1206 CONTRACTS TO 137,332 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.12 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.12)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 603 CONTRACTS. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERING THEIR SHORTFALLS .WE HAD NO SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AS THE PRICE ESCALATED AWAY FROM THEM CAUSING LOTS OF LOSSES. // OUR BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS CAUSING MISERY TO OUR SHORTERS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: I) MINOR ATTEMPTED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS WITH HUGE SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.045 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 435,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:1.820 MILLION OZ/ / // V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -69
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 6 days, total 11,754 contracts: 58.770 million oz OR 9.795MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1959 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 58.770 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 58.770 MILLION
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1206 DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.12 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1934 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.345 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 435,000 QUEUE JUMP/ .. WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 603 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 3.015 MILLION OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE NOW TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING THOSE SHORTS ESPECIALLY WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE ON MONDAY.
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5137 CONTRACTS TO 478,215 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -978 CONTRACTS.
.
THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $2.95//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY // CONSIDERABLE ATTEMPTED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS TO NO AVAIL//CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS, ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS. WE WITNESSED DAY ONE OF THIS AS EVERYBODY WISHES TO BUY BUT NO SELLERS.
WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GOOD 1800 OZ QUEUE JUMP //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $2.95 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6093 OI CONTRACTS (18.951 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1934 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 478,215
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6093 CONTRACTS WITH 4159 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX (SHORT SPECULATORS FAILING TO GET OUT OF THEIR MESS) AND 1934 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7071 CONTRACTS OR 21.993 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1,934) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (4159): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 7071 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE ATTEMPTED BUT FAILED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS. WE PROBABLY HAD SOME SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // CONSIDERABLE NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GOOD QUEUE JUMP OF 1800 OZ //NEW STANDING 20.243 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :
26,627 CONTRACTS OR 2,662,700 OZ OR 82.82 TONNES 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4438 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 82,82 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 82,82/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.33% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 82.82 TONNES//INITIAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1206 CONTRACT OI TO 137,332 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 1740 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1740 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1740 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1206 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1740 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 534 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.670MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $0.12….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.32 PTS OR 0.43% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 38.60 OR 0.23% /The Nikkei closed UP 334.47 OR 1.25% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.29% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.2548 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.2553// /Oil UP TO 90.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 97.32 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4,159 CONTRACTS TO 478,215 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.95 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1934 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED HUGE NUMBER OF SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NO DOUBT ON FRIDAY THEY HAD CONSIDERABLE TROUBLE TRYING TO COVER. WE HAD MANY BUYERS OF CONTRACTS BUT FEW WILLING TO SELL.
WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON -ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1934EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC : 1934 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1934 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6093 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1934LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 4,159 CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $2.95//WE FINALLY HAD SOME SPEC SHORTS TRYING TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALL WITH LIMITED SUCCESS. BANKERS CONTINUE AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WE ALSO HAD STRONG ADDITIONAL NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG WITH SOME SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS TO THEIR SHORT SIDE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING NOV (20.243),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 20.243 TONNES/INITIAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 564.435 TONNES)
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $2.95) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS. HOWEVER WE DID HAVE MINOR SPECULATOR SHORTS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL BUT MUCH SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS.. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6093 CONTRACTS.// WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 18.951 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (20.243 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $2.95
WE HAD -978 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6093 CONTRACTS OR 609,300 OZ OR 18.951 TONNES
Estimated gold volume 317,061// very good//
final gold volumes/yesterday 240,099/ fair
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //NOV 8
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4882 notices 488,200 15.1850TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
total dealer deposit 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits nil oz
customer withdrawals:2
ii) Out of Int. Delaware: 96.43 oz (1 kilobar)
ii) Out of Malca: 7426.881 oz (231 kilobars)
total: 7,523.334 oz
total in tonnes: .233 tonnes
Adjustments: 2// dealer to customer
i) Out of Brinks: 7812.693 oz
ii) Out of HSBC: 12,153.078 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER.
For the front month of NOV. we have an oi of 1650 contracts having LOST ONLY 287 contracts. We had 305 notices served on MONDAY so we gained a strong 18
or an additional 1800 OZ (0.05598 TONNES) will stand in this non active month of November. We will have Nov gold tonnage standing increase daily from this day forth until the end of the month.
This queue jumping originates in London with the exercising of London based EFP’s for comex gold.
December LOST ONLY 11,769 contracts DOWN to 322,850. DEC WILL BE A DILLY OF A DELIVERY MONTH.
JANUARY GAINED 26 contract to stand at 152.
February gained 15,271 contacts up to 113,898.
We had 24 notice(s) filed today for 2400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 24 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4882) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (NOV 1650 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 24 x 100 oz per contract equals 650,800 OZ OR 20.243 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of NOV.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV. contract month:
No of notices filed so far (4882) x 100 oz+ (1650) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (24} x 100 oz} which equals 650,800 oz standing OR 20.243 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOV..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 20.186 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING//NEW RECORD FOR NOV (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 161 x 5,000 oz = 804,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(203) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV../2022 contract month: 161 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (203) – number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV. contract month equates 1,820,000 oz.
We will gain in silver oz standing from this day forth until the end of the month.
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
Comex volumes:104,869// est. volume today// huge/shorts covered
NOV 8/WITH GOLD UP $34.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//: INVENTORY RESTS AT 905.49 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.95: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.96. TONNES
NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $44.45 TO $1673.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROMTHE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES.
NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.
NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES
OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//
OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES
OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES
OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES
OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 906,96 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.751 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.929 MILLION OZ//
NOV 7/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.31 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.972 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//
NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//
NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ
OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//
OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.
OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/
OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//
OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///
OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//
OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//
OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//
Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ
OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/
OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617 MILLION OZ//
OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 475.929 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1.PETER SCHIFF
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Yamana’s Malartic is a much better fit for Agnico Eagle than with GoldFields.
(Reuters/GATA)
Gold Fields will not make counter-bid for Yamana Gold
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-11-07 09:20Section: Daily Dispatches
By Helen Reid Reuters Monday, November 7, 2022
JOHANNESBURG — The board of South Africa’s Gold Fields will not change its offer for Yamana Gold after a surprise rival bid from Agnico Eagle and Pan American, it said on today.
Gold Fields’ decision reflects “commitment to capital discipline” and to fairness for shareholders in Gold Fields and Yamana, the South Africa-listed miner said today
he joint cash and stock offer from Agnico Eagle and Pan American on Friday trumped the Gold Fields bid, which valued Yamana at around $4.2 billion at Thursday’s close. Under the offer, Yamana shareholders would receive $1.0406 in cash, 0.0376 of an Agnico share and 0.1598 of a Pan American share for each share held. …
Western central banks are guilty of an enormous white lie. They led the public and the political class to believe that quantitative easing (QE) was tantamount to printing money, and that it could be reversed painlessly once the deflation threat had passed.
They were throwing sand in our eyes. The process is not remotely equivalent to printing bank notes. The central banks have conducted QE in such a way that there is a liability owed to commercial banks on the other side of every bond purchase. That liability is contracted at floating rates.
The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank, among others, have borrowed short to buy long. This is a variant of the maturity mismatch that blew up Northern Rock and Lehman Brothers after the short-term funding markets froze during the global financial crisis.
The consequences are catching up with the central banks as inflation forces them to raise interest rates at a galloping pace. They risk rendering themselves technically insolvent.
“Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are painful for the economy. But they are also painful for the Federal Reserve itself. It is a self-harming process,” said Padhraic Garvey from ING.
ING says the Fed has incurred a paper loss of $1 trillion (L880 billionn) this year on its $8.7 trillion balance sheet of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage debt. Its holdings are trading at an average 7%c discount to par value. This is going to be hard to explain to Congress.
The Fed has also racked up an annual interest bill of $170 bilion that must be paid to counterparties, either on the excess reserves of commercial banks or on its reverse-repo facility. The terminology is obscure. The cost is real and will eclipse the interest income from the Fed’s bond portfolio by a wide margin as U.S. interest rates near 5%.
ING says the Fed will be “deep in the red” by next year. Ultimately, the U.S. taxpayer will shore up the system but the political economy implications of what has happened are not trivial.
The Swiss National Bank has already skidded into trouble. Over the first nine months of this year, it lost $143 billion on its asset holdings, equal to 20% of Swiss GDP. This has wiped out three quarters of the SNB’s equity capital.
The Swiss QE portfolio includes global stocks such as Meta and Google, accumulated in a heroic effort to hold down the franc, otherwise known as currency manipulation. Another leg down on Wall Street could force the SNB to go cap in hand to the cantons for a humiliating recapitalisation.
The Dutch central bank (DNB) has had to write a letter to the Dutch finance minister warning that rising interest rate payments to counterparties are eroding its equity buffers.
“For the coming years we expect losses to be considerable, especially in 2023 and 2024. Should our buffers become too depleted … additional measures may be necessary to restore our balance sheet to solidity. In an extreme case, a capital contribution from the Dutch State may be necessary,” it said.
DNB is exploring a revaluation of its large gold reserves as a “solvency backstop.”
If the Dutch are having to do this, we can be sure that weaker central banks in the ECB network are in worse shape. It is likely that gold reserves will have to be mobilised in several states to boost equity capital. The barbarous relic may get its revenge on fiat paper.
The great white lie dates back to a speech in 2002 by a young Fed governor called Ben Bernanke on the risks of deflation.
“The US government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at no cost,” he said.
The Bank of England picked up the metaphor in its early explanations of QE, insisting that buying bonds with electronic money was the same as buying them with printed banknotes, but simpler.
The Bank has since come clean. “QE doesn’t involve ‘printing money.’ The policy is more accurately seen as a maturity swap,” it says. Chalk and cheese.
The Bank has to pay interest on commercial bank reserves (the flip-side of QE) at Bank Rate, already 3%c and rising. This is a fiscal cost indemnified by the Treasury.
Sir Paul Tucker, ex-deputy governor, says the Government could save L30 billion to L45 billion a year on its L840 billion QE portfolio by limiting payments to the banks (“tiering” in jargon), but acknowledges that this is not the “easy-win” that some suppose. It would amount to a windfall tax on banks at a time of mounting financial stress. Critics say it would set off a credit crunch and backfire badly.
One can forgive the original white lie by central banks. They never imagined that QE would drag on for 13 years, or reach such proportions. What was less forgivable was to keep buying bonds à outrance after the macroeconomic trade-offs had turned toxic and after the broad money supply (M3, M4x) had caught fire, guaranteeing inflation.
The Bank for International Settlements studied the latent risk in a joint report with officials from central banks in 2018. They concluded that a “snapback” in interest rates was potentially dangerous. The global financial system, especially the non-bank shadow sector, had been lured into positions that could not be unwound with the flick of the fingers, and could not withstand a rate shock. A liquidity crisis was likely.
The report was so sensitive that publication was delayed. It was then released quietly and buried. One paragraph catches the eye. It warned of a collateral crisis in the “marked-to-market value of derivative contracts” leading to distress fire sales. That is what happened to the UK pensions industry in September. Regulators ignored the warning.
Philip Turner, one of the authors of the BIS report, says a decade of financial alchemy has left the global system overleveraged, opaque, and an accident waiting to happen. “UK pension funds are just the first bodies to float to the surface,” he said.
Let us be clear: QE was necessary to avert an implosion of the money supply and a second great depression after the Lehman crisis. The fundamental policy failure lies with governments. They imposed premature fiscal austerity in the US, UK, and Europe before economies had recovered, and at a time when banks were slashing credit to repair their balance sheets — made worse by ill-timed regulations forcing lenders to raise capital buffers too fast during the slump. Zero rates and QE were needed to offset the self-inflicted damage.
But by pushing the experiment too far, and by misrepresenting the trade-offs so dismissively, the central banks have tainted the whole apparatus of emergency money. The bar for a liquidity bail-out in the future is henceforth exorbitantly high, and we may well need one.
end
Ed Steer’s commentary in the clear, posted at Silverseek
(Ed Steer/GATA)
Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest weekend edition posted at SilverSeek
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-11-07 19:22Section: Daily Dispatches
7:18p ET Monday, November 6, 2022
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The weekend edition of GATA board member Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest letter, headlined “Gold and Silver Explode Higher in New York,” is posted in the clear tonight at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
end
For your information..
GATA Chairman Murphy joins many GATA favorites at Silver Fest III Nov. 12
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-11-07 20:19Section: Daily Dispatches
8:10p ET Monday, November 7, 2022
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and many monetary metals expert friends of GATA will speak this Saturday, November 12, at the Silver Fest III internet conference sponsored by Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics.
Attendance will be free with simple registration.
In addition to Murphy and Marcus, speakers will include David Morgan of The Morgan Report, Bullion Star’s researcher Ronan Manly, First Majestic Silver’s Todd Anthony, James Anderson of SD Bullion, Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod, Robert Kientz of Gold Silver Pros, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics, and market analyst Bill Holter.
For more information about Silver Fest III and to register, please visit:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
4. OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES
“An Asymmetric Payoff”: Why Goldman Sees Gold Soaring 30% When The Fed Starts Cutting Rates
TUESDAY, NOV 08, 2022 – 03:20 PM
In recent weeks, gold has been caught in a perfect vice of bullish and bearish forces.
On one hand, the Hawkish Fed has continued to pile relentless pressure on the precious metal; to wit, during his recent press conference, Chairman Powell hinted at slowing down the pace of rate hikes, while also signaling that terminal rates may peak at a higher level. Following the conference, US rates and the dollar surged. Importantly, the Fed reiterated that bringing inflation down to 2% remains a top priority, triggering a sharp fall in gold after the announcement.
But wait, isn’t inflation good for the world’s oldest inflation hedge? Well, as Goldman’s Mikhail Sprogis writes in a note this morning, in given circumstances, it is: for example, high inflation tends to be (extremely) bullish for gold when the market questions the central bank’s ability to fight it, such as during Burns’s tenure in the 1970s. In contrast, high inflation tends to be bearish for gold when the market gives the CB credit in its ability to reduce it, such as during Volcker’s fight on inflation in the early 1980s.
In any case, the Fed’s consistent message that it is willing to sacrifice growth to bring inflation under control has helped keep breakeven inflation expectations stable and pushed real rates to the highest level since the GFC. As a result, gold ETFs and speculative positions have fallen as the effect of higher real rates has offset the impact of rising recession worries.
On the other hand, as we reported last week, Central Bank buying of gold, especially among emerging markets, just hit a record: according to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2022 CB gold purchases of 400 tonnes, the largest quarterly figure on record, and 300 tonnes above trend.
As an aside, and as we discussed last week, the record-high buying emanated from an “unexplained” component of the World Gold Council data, which reflects purchases by countries which either do not report their activity or report with a lag. For example, Russia stopped reporting gold purchases this year, while China often reports with a large lag. The largest reported purchases came form Turkey, Uzbekistan and Qatar. Still, one thing we can be reasonably sure of is that the buying is done by a combination of EM CBs. Meanwhile, DM CBs have not been significant gold buyers since the 1960s.
In any case, this furious EM central bank buying cannot be explained solely by dip-buying behavior or low interest rates. It is particularly impressive also given persistent dollar strength through Q3 that, all else equal, would have normally depressed non-USD purchases of gold. It also means that, even without any further gold purchases in Q4, 2022 is set to be a record year for CB gold demand.
This paradoxical divergence between record central bank demand, and depressed pricing due to Fed policies, creates – according to Goldman strategist Mikhail Sprogis – gold’s return asymmetry: as he writes, “EM CB demand appears to be a reflection of geopolitical trends that have been years in the making vs a one-off spike.” As a result, the Goldman banker believes that structurally higher EM CB demand creates an asymmetric payoff for gold as it provides a floor to gold if further ETF liquidation occurs in response to further hawkish Fed surprises.
Meanwhile, in a scenario where a US recession leads to a turn in the US monetary cycle – which it will, it’s only a matter of time before the Fed breaks something badly – Goldman estimates that gold could rally by 20-30% depending on the degree of Fed cuts.
To fine tune this analysis, Goldman looks at the gold price sensitivity to changes in CB demand. According to Sprogis, “in order to estimate then impact of higher CB purchases on gold, we look at the price sensitivity of net jewelry demand (jewelry demand minus scrap), the balancing factor in the gold market. The logic here is that persistently higher CB demand will have to either destroy jewelry demand or incentivize more scrap collection, all else equal.”
The bank’s results indicate that in order to accommodate an additional 350 tonnes of CB demand through jewelry demand destruction or scrap increases, gold has to rally by 10% (poor Goldman still thinks that the physical and paper gold markets are connected when in reality nothing could be further from the truth courtesy of rampant paper gold manipulation by central and commercial banks and the BIS). In any event, Goldman continues and notes that with CB demand rising by 233 tonnes over the past year, the gold price was boosted by 6.5%, all else equal. Going forward, if CB gold purchases were to continue at a 400 tonnes quarterly pace, that could boost equilibrium gold prices by 25%, all else equal. In a less extreme scenario where purchases moderate to 250 tonnes per quarter over the next year, we believe gold could increase by 12.5%, all else equal.
One way to think about what’s going on is that EM central bank demand acts as a ‘put’ on the gold price; meanwhile elevated growth risks create a positive asymmetry for gold returns. According to Goldman, the precious metal’s downside in the case of a ‘soft landing’ or further Fed hawkishness is significantly less than gold’s upside in the case of a growth shock that pushes the US economy into recession. Strong demand from central banks further enhances this asymmetry: in 3Q22, 300 tonnes of above-trend CB purchases were outweighed by 250 tonnes of below-trend ETFs demand and a 340 tonne decrease in speculative futures positions. In other words, massive physical gold buying by central banks was offset by even more massive selling of levered and derivative paper gold positions. As a result, gold prices tumbled as investor selling outweighed CB buying.
But going forward, even Goldman thinks there is limited further downside in Spec positioning which is already close to historic lows. The bank also thinks that, while the drawdown in US ETFs can continue, European liquidations should slow after the ECB turned more dovish. Thus, structurally higher CB demand should help absorb further ETF selling which further enhances the gold price return asymmetry in our view.
The crypto world has attracted all sorts of investment money, and some of it taken from the gold/silver world. Bitcoin is back below 19,000. Should it take out support at 18,500, where it has held a number of times, watch out below. It could be quite the impetus for the precious metals, IF they are rising at the same time.
7. GOLD/ TRADING
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.2548
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.2555
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.72 PTS OR 0.43%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 38.60OR 0.23%
2. Nikkei closed UP 334.47 PTS OR 1.23%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 110.27/Euro FALLS TO 0.9908
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.246!!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 146.42/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.3485%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.453%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.382%…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.739//
3j Gold at $1671.85//silver at: 20.78 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 20/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.80//
3m oil into the 92 dollar handle for WTI and 97 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 146.42DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9908–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9904well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.216% UP 0 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.329% UP 2 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,61…GETTTING DANGEROUS
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.678%
end
Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Rise On Expectations For A Post-Midterm Rally
TUESDAY, NOV 08, 2022 – 08:06 AM
US equity futures rose as bond yields dipped as Americans headed to the polls on Tuesday for midterm elections where Republicans are expected to gain as many as 75 seats in the House and 11 in the Senate, while traders were also bracing for a key CPI print later this week. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.5% by 7:30 a.m. in New York, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% to trade at 3,820 and above a key CTA threshold level (as Goldman notes overnight “CTA short term momentum flipped from negative to positive w/ the close north of 3804”). The US Dollar was little changed as was the yield on the 10-year Treasury after rising for the past four days.
Among notable movers in premarket trading, NVidia climbed in early New York trading as it began producing a processor for China. Bitcoin tumbled as part of a crypto selloff trigged by the growing Binance-FTX feud. Lyft plunged 20%, on track to hit their lowest level on record. The ride-sharing company’s 3Q results appear to confirm it is losing market share to rival Uber and raise questions on its outlook in 4Q and beyond, analysts say. TripAdvisor shares also cratered after the online travel agency issued a disappointing fourth-quarter forecast. Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. fell 18% and was set for its biggest drop in 13 years after the video-game developer’s results showed weakness in its mobile business, which drove a cut to its bookings guidance. Lordstown Motors, on the other hand, surged after the EV maker struck a deal to sell a $170 million stake to Foxconn and give two board seats to its manufacturing partner, boosting investor confidence over its prospects.
SolarEdge shares rise 9.6% in US premarket trading after third-quarter results that analysts say were strong and indicated a further improvement in margins for the solar company in the future.
Take-Two shares drop 18% in US premarket trading. The video-game developer’s results show weakness in its mobile business, which drove a cut to its bookings guidance, though analysts remain positive on its pipeline of future releases. Video-game stocks could be in focus on Tuesday after Take-Two reduced its full-year net bookings guidance, while Nintendo cut its forecast for sales of Switch consoles by 10%. Keep an eye on stocks like Electronic Arts (EA US), Roblox (RBLX US), AppLovin (APP US).
Five9’s shares decline 13% in premarket trading as reduced guidance indicates a slowdown ahead for the cloud software firm against a tough macro picture, with Jefferies saying that the outlook was “worse than feared.” Still, some analysts think there may be an opportunity to buy shares on any weakness.
Lyft shares drop about 18% in US premarket trading, on track to hit their lowest level on record. The ride-sharing company’s 3Q results appear to confirm it is losing market share to rival Uber and raise questions on its outlook in 4Q and beyond, analysts say.
TripAdvisor shares slump 19% in premarket trading after the online travel agency reported third-quarter results. While revenue for the period came in ahead of estimates, the fourth-quarter guidance disappointed, with analysts noting that increased spending on Viator was the main reason for the soft outlook.
Cryptocurrency- exposed stocks fall in US premarket trading as a selloff among digital currencies spreads to Bitcoin and Ether. Investors are paring risky bets ahead of US midterm elections and following a renewed slump in cryptocurrency exchange FTX’s token. Riot Blockchain declines 4.9%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) -4.8%, Coinbase (COIN US) -2.1%, Hut 8 Mining (HUT CN) -4.5%
Watch US semiconductor stocks after peer Nvidia began making a chip for China that the company said meets a US export ban, boosting hopes that companies impacted won’t see a sizable hit to their revenues from the curbs.
Keep an eye on stocks including Intel (INTC US), Qualcomm (QCOM US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US), Lam Research (LRCX US), Applied Materials (AMAT US), KLA (KLAC US).
Investors will be closely monitoring the outcome of the midterm vote while the CPI reading will be significant in assessing the impact of Fed hikes on inflation. President Joe Biden acknowledged that Democrats face a “tougher” challenge holding the House than the US Senate. Polls pointing to Republicans winning at least one chamber of Congress provide a potential catalyst for lower bond yields and higher equity prices, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, who said that a “clean sweep” by the Republicans could greatly increase the chance of fiscal spending being frozen and historically high budget deficits being reduced, fueling a rally in 10-year Treasuries that can keep the equity market rising.
“The US debt burden could stop the Democrats from putting in place many economic reforms that they would’ve otherwise, if Republicans are sufficiently crowded to block them moving forward,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, wrote in a note. “Hence, slowing debt under GOP could slow growth.”
That said, sentiment has improved in recent days, and major equity markets aren’t likely to see “another big leg down” as a lot of the bad news seems to be priced in, according to Altaf Kassam, head of EMEA investment strategy and research at State Street Global Advisors. The Fed is likely to shift away from rate increases after the effects of hikes start showing up, especially in the second half of next year, he said. “Equity markets have already kind of started to anticipate that, so if you are patient you might miss out on the beginning of a rally, but that’s when we think it’s going to happen,” he told Bloomberg TV.
Tuesday’s two-way moves in Treasuries, however, underscored the fragile sentiment in markets where the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening remains the biggest headwind. Thursday’s consumer-price-index data will offer the next cue for traders even as money markets are raising their peak-rate wagers. The inflation reading is coming after the core consumer price index rose more than forecast to a 40-year high in September. Even if prices begin to moderate, the CPI is far above the Fed’s comfort zone.
“Inflation is going up. It may be coming down periodically. But it’s going up,” Richard Harris, chief executive of Port Shelter Investment Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “The market is kind of uncertain — it’s hoping for the best but really should be preparing for the worst.”
In Europe, tech, telecoms and utilities are the strongest performing sectors while energy and miners lag. Euro Stoxx 50 is little changed. FTSE 100 lags peers, dropping 0.2%. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
BE Semi shares rise as much as 6.5%, hitting the highest in three months and leading gains in the Stoxx 600 Tech index, as Morgan Stanley initiates coverage with an overweight rating
Pandora gains as much as 8.8%, the most since May, after 3Q net income beat estimates. The Danish jeweler said that despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, the shopping patterns of its consumers are so far largely unchanged.
AB Foods jumps as much as 6.7%, the most since March 9, after the UK company announced a £500m share buyback. The amount was bigger than Citi had expected, while RBC said the repurchase program will be well received.
Coca-Cola HBC gains as much as 4.2%, among the top performers in the FTSE 100 Index, after the bottler reported third-quarter sales that beat estimates and said it now sees FY comparable Ebit in the range of €860m-€900m.
Persimmon falls as much as 9.3% after the homebuilder’s trading update flagged rising cancellations, falling sales rates and prices, increased provisions for cladding remediation and changes to the capital return policy which Morgan Stanley (underweight) says points to a “meaningful decline” in the FY23 dividend.
DCC drops as much as 8.7%, the most since March 2020, after 1H results that RBC says came in slightly below expectations.
Bayer falls as much as 5%, the most intraday since Aug. 29, after reporting results that beat estimates while reiterating guidance given in August — leaving limited room for any changes to consensus expectations, according to Morgan Stanley.
Direct Line drops as much as 7.8%, the most intraday since July, after the insurer’s gross written premium for the third quarter was weaker than expected due to lower motor premiums. Shares of peer Admiral Group also fall.
Asian stocks also rose amid investor optimism that the potential outcome of the US midterm elections could be good for equities. Chinese shares, meanwhile, pulled back after a two-day rally as pandemic concerns flared once again. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.8%, poised for a third day of gains, driven by technology stocks. Benchmarks in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan led gains, while Indian markets were closed for a holiday.
China’s Covid cases surged by the most since April, halting a recent rally in the Hong Kong and mainland markets. Chinese shares had been rising on growing hopes for an eventual reopening even as health officials reiterated a strict adherence to Covid Zero policy. The market is also wagering that a US Congress split between Democrats and Republicans could be good for stocks. A post-election rally will provide some respite for investors amid concerns over the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy tightening. “Gridlock cross-checks each party’s ‘worst impulses,’ and less activist fiscal policy is conducive to lower market volatility,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a note. “That could be particularly helpful in 2022 and 2023 to the extent it calms rates volatility.”
Japanese equities climbed for a second day, following US peers higher as investors awaited the outcome of US midterm elections and further direction on Federal Reserve policy. The Topix rose 1.2% to close at 1,957.56, while the Nikkei advanced 1.3% to 27,872.11. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 3.3%. Out of 2,165 stocks in the index, 1,662 rose and 410 fell, while 93 were unchanged. “Japanese stocks followed the gain in overseas stocks,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management. “There seems to be more buybacks after the release of employment statistics that investors were originally cautious about.”
In FX, the dollar consolidates and is marginally firmer against most majors; the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung between gains and losses after touching a seven-week low. The greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen.
The euro weakened to trade around parity versus the dollar. Bunds and Italian bond curves twist- flattened modestly. One trader has bought an upside strategy in Euribor calls that seeks to profit from the ECB easing policy rates significantly by the middle of 2024
The pound was among the worst performers, while gilts were steady. The Debt Management Office kicked off a 15-year syndication in a busy week for supply. UK retailers said sales growth slowed in October as a surge in prices pushed more consumers to focus on essentials instead of new clothing and household accessories. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said market turmoil in the UK in recent weeks led to some “de-anchoring” of inflation expectations, and the central bank is working hard to tamp down those views; Pill speaks twice today
The Australian dollar erased a loss. It earlier slumped after the nation’s consumer sentiment tumbled to the lowest level in 2-1/2 years and business confidence also weakened as higher interest rates and surging inflation stoke concern about the nation’s economic outlook
In rates, fixed income trading was fairly muted; Treasury yields are flip to slightly cheaper on the day, follow wider drop in bunds after Germany plans to more than double the 2023 net debt to €45 billion. US 10-year yields back up to around 4.22%, cheaper by less than 1bp on the day while bunds underperform by 2bp in the sector as bund futures test session lows
In commodities, WTI falls 1.2% to near $90.73. Spot gold falls roughly $5 to trade near $1,671/oz. Oil futures are softer intraday as DXY picked up overnight and in early European trade, whilst China’s COVID woes remain a grey cloud for the complex, with daily new cases in China rising to a six-month high for Sunday. Spot gold moves in tandem with the Buck and oscillates on either side of its 50 DMA at USD 1,672/oz today in the run-up to the midterms. Base metals are mixed with LME copper trading with mild gains just under the USD 8,000/t mark.
To the day ahead now, and the highlight will be the US midterm elections. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel and Wunsch, as well as BoE chief economist Pill. Otherwise, data releases include Euro Area retail sales for September, and earnings releases include Disney.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,821.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 419.27
MXAP up 0.7% to 143.54
MXAPJ up 0.4% to 461.67
Nikkei up 1.3% to 27,872.11
Topix up 1.2% to 1,957.56
Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 16,557.31
Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,064.49
Sensex up 0.4% to 61,185.15
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,958.87
Kospi up 1.1% to 2,399.04
German 10Y yield down 0.1% at 2.34%
Euro down 0.2% to $0.9999
Brent Futures down 0.9% to $97.06/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,670.56
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.20% to 110.34
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Donald Trump said on the eve of US midterm elections that he would be making a “big announcement” next week, all but confirming his widely anticipated third White House bid that he’s been teasing for weeks
The term structures in the major currencies remain inverted as US risk events, including midterm elections and a key inflation report, make the case for long gamma exposure in the front-end
The ECB will start reducing its bond holdings through so-called quantitative tightening “sooner or later, for sure in 2023,” Vice President Luis de Guindos tells Politico in an interview
The ECB needs to continue increasing interest rates even if that weighs on economic output, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel
Japan’s cabinet approved a 29.1 trillion yen ($198 billion) extra budget to fund an economic stimulus package that aims to ease the impact of inflation on people and companies
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed as the region only partially sustained the early momentum seen following the positive handover from Wall St with Chinese stocks pressured overnight as infections continued to rise. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with the index kept afloat by strength in the top-weighted financial industry and gains in consumer-related sectors. Nikkei 225 was firmer and edged closer to the 28,000 level as participants digested earnings releases and shrugged off mixed household spending data although Average Cash Earnings accelerated. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued despite the reopening rumours which officials pushed back against, while the number of daily new infections continued to climb from 6-month highs.
Top Asian News
Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee dismissed calls to drop the health code for travellers and mask-wearing rules, according to SCMP.
Japanese PM Kishida is to approve USD 198bln extra budget for the stimulus plan, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, Japan’s government is to add JPY 1.4tln of fiscal loans for the second extra budget and will issue JPY 20.4tln in deficit-covering bonds, according to a draft cited by Reuters.
Japan’s cabinet has approved a second supplementary budget with JPY 29.1tln (in-line with prior reports) for FY to fund an economic stimulus package, according to MoF.
BoJ Summary of Opinions stated that Japan’s consumer inflation is likely to continue accelerating as firms pass on higher costs. Furthermore, consumer inflation is likely to slow back below 2% next fiscal year due to the impact of slowing global growth but cannot rule out chances that prices will sharply overshoot forecasts.
RBNZ reappointed Governor Orr as the head for another five-year term, according to Reuters.
Chinese interbank market regulator is to boost support by financing to private firms, will initially support around CNY 250bln of bond financing by private firms including property developers; supported by central bank refinancing.
Major bourses in Europe portray a mixed picture with no clear conviction seen heading into the US mid-term elections. Sectors are mostly firmer (vs a mostly lower open) with Tech leading the charge with additional help from declining bond yields. Energy and Basic Resources sit as the sectoral laggards amid declines in underlying commodity prices. US equity futures post mild gains but with price action contained; ES +0.1%.
Top European News
BoE urged lenders to do more to avoid a repeat of the pensions fund turmoil seen in September, according to FT.
UK PM Sunak is expected to increase pensions and benefits in line with inflation, according to The Times.
UK Chancellor Hunt is to announce a tax raid on inheritance in the Autumn statement, according to The Telegraph and FT.
UK plan to review or repeal all EU laws by end-2023 suffered another setback after 1,400 additional pieces of legislation were discovered, according to FT.
UK and France are reportedly in the final stage of reaching an agreement concerning illegal English Channel crossing, according to FT.
ECB’s de Guindos says ECB will continue raising rates to levels that ensure price stability; levels will depend on data, the evolution of inflation, economic conditions, demand, and energy prices, via Reuters.
ECB’s Nagel says he will do his utmost to make sure the ECB does not let up in the inflation fight, according to Reuters.
SNB’s Jordan says policy decisions must be based on firm commitment to price stability objective; policy decisions must not be based exclusively on inflation forecast, via Reuters.
BoE Chief Economist Pill says there is a danger of self-fulfilling dynamics on wage-cost nexus. Cannot declare victory against second-round effects but is entering a recession. Pill reiterated that there is more to do, and need to raise rates to tighten monetary policy. Pill is sceptical that front-loading hikes has big expectations effect, via Reuters.
UBS (UBSG SW) branches have been searched by German criminal investigators in relation to sanctioned Russian oligarch Usmanov, according to Der Spiegel; searches related to money laundering.
FX
DXY gleaned some traction across the board amidst a firmer rebound in Treasury yields, renewed weakness in the Yuan and general consolidation ahead of impending risk events.
Yen managed to keep afloat of 147.00 and bucked the overall trend after Japan’s Cabinet approved a second supplementary budget and the BoJ’s SOO highlighted risks of a sharp price overshoot.
European G10s sit as the current laggards, with EUR, GBP, and CHF towards the bottom of the bunch.
Fixed Income
US Treasuries were first off the block in terms of paring more losses from worst levels to turn marginally positive
Gilts followed suit as books closed on a well sought after 2038 syndicated offering.
Bunds remain depressed in wake of a somewhat mixed Schatz auction given a bigger retention and hefty concession needed to achieve a 1.2 cover ratio for the new 2 year benchmark.
Commodities
WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday as DXY picked up overnight and in early European trade, whilst China’s COVID woes remain a grey cloud for the complex, with daily new cases in China rising to a six-month high for Sunday.
Spot gold moves in tandem with the Buck and oscillates on either side of its 50 DMA at USD 1,672/oz today in the run-up to the midterms.
Base metals are mixed with LME copper trading with mild gains just under the USD 8,000/t mark.
Chile’s Codelco offers Chinese copper buyers 2023 supply at a premium USD 140/t (prev. USD 105/t; +33.3% Y/Y) according to Reuters sources.
Geopolitical
Ukrainian President Zelensky said it is vital to force Russia to participate in genuine peace negotiations, according to Reuters.
White House Press Secretary said US President Biden has no intention of meeting Russian President Putin, while State Department spokesman Price said Russia signals that it is focused on escalation, according to Bloomberg.
North Korea’s military denied exporting weapons to Russia in which it stated that it has never exported weapons or ammunition to Russia and has no plans to do so, according to Yonhap.
Chinese Foreign Ministry, on President’s Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia, says don’t know the information referred to, according to Reuters.
Chinese President Xi will comprehensively strengthen military training and preparation for any war, according to state media. China’s security is increasingly unstable and uncertain.
US Event Calendar
06:00: Oct. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM 91.3, est. 91.4, prior 92.1
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s been a long two years, but today we’ve finally arrived at the US midterm elections, which is clearly the most important political milestone between the presidential elections. I have my own electoral success story to report as my 7-year old daughter Maisie was voted onto her school council on Friday. I asked her what platform she stood on. She said that she campaigned on having more homework and that the school should have a pet fish. In case you think she’s a swot, nothing can be further from the truth. Getting her to do homework is the most stressful part of every weekend and often brings floods of tears. Maisie cries too. How she got elected on that mandate is beyond me. Maybe the others stood on bringing back corporal punishment!
On to weightier matters, as a reminder for our non-US readers, today will see every seat in the US House of Representatives (the lower chamber) up for grabs, along with a third of the seats in the Senate (the upper chamber), on top of the governorships in 36 of the 50 US states. And when it comes to markets, it’s no exaggeration to say that midterm elections are one of the best historic buy signals for equities we have. In fact, in the 19 midterm elections since WWII, the S&P 500 has always been higher one year after the vote. Whether any of those cycles had to contend with the macro tsunami that’s coming in the next 12 months is a moot point but it shows the underlying technicals.
Currently the Democrats control both chambers in Congress, but by the narrowest of margins. The Senate is currently split 50-50 their way thanks to the tie-breaking vote from Vice President Harris, so the Republicans only need a net gain of one to win the majority there. Meanwhile in the House of Representatives, it was split 222-213 to the Democrats in the 2020 election, meaning the Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to take control.
In terms of what’s expected to happen, most forecasters think that the Republicans are likely to win control of the House of Representatives. For instance, FiveThirtyEight’s model gives them an 83% chance of the majority, and Politico’s forecast puts it as “Likely Republican”. In the Senate however, the Republicans are generally seen as having a weaker chance, with FiveThirtyEight’s model giving them a smaller 55% chance of the majority, and Politico’s forecast leaving it as a “Toss-Up”. Part of the reason why the Republicans have a much weaker chance in the Senate relative to the House is because only a third of the Senate is up for election, and most of the seats up for grabs are ones already held by the Republicans, which limits their scope to make net gains from the Democrats.
If the Republicans do end up retaking control of either chamber in Congress (or both), the result will likely be legislative gridlock for the next two years, and our US economists do not see any major legislation on economic policy ahead of the 2024 election in this circumstance. Remember that President Biden will still have a veto on legislation, and the Republicans will not have the two-thirds majority in both houses required to override a veto (it’s mathematically impossible in the Senate where only a third of seats are up for grabs). If there is divided government however, one area we might see more action again is the debt ceiling, since there’s a chance that a Republican-controlled Congress use the need to raise the ceiling as leverage to get some of their policy priorities through. See Henry’s piece (here) from yesterday for more on that.
When it comes to the results, it could be some time before we know the full picture. In fact, for the Georgia Senate race, state law requires the candidate to win over 50% of the vote to win, so if nobody does today then the top two will go to a runoff on December 6, meaning it could theoretically be another month before we find out who controls the Senate if it does hinge on that race like last time. Even absent any runoffs, it’s also possible that it takes some days anyway. Last time at the presidential election, it wasn’t until the Saturday after the Tuesday that we had final confirmation of Biden’s victory.
Whatever ends up happening today, there’ll be plenty of extrapolation onto the 2024 presidential election from the results. However, it’s important to remember that 2 years is also a very long time in politics and a number of presidents have come back from very bad midterm results to win re-election. Indeed, the last two Democrats in the White House (Presidents Obama and Clinton) both suffered major midterm losses before coming back to win re-election. So be cautious in saying anything is inevitable!
Ahead of the midterms there were some familiar themes in markets, with yields on 2yr US Treasuries up +6.3bps to a post-2007 high of 4.72%, whilst the 10yr yield was up +5.5bps to 4.21% (4.23% in Asia). Those moves were driven pretty much entirely by higher inflation breakevens rather than real rates, and came as Brent crude oil prices traded closer to $100/bbl than at any point since August, intraday, before falling into the close to finish the day slightly lower at -0.66%. The trend towards higher sovereign bond yields was evident in Europe too, where yields on 10yr bunds (+4.9bps), OATs (+3.3bps) and gilts (+7.6bps) all rose on the day.
Whilst there was a clear trend in rates, for equities it was a pretty choppy session, with the S&P 500 fluctuating between gains and losses to eventually post a very healthy gain of +0.97%. Cyclical stocks led the way while defensives like Utilities were stark underperformers, falling -1.94%. The Nasdaq advanced for the second straight day for the first time in November, climbing +0.85%. Meanwhile in Europe, the major indices mostly rose, with the STOXX 600 (+0.33%) hitting a 7-week high, but the FTSE 100 (-0.48%) lagged behind amidst a +1.19% rebound in sterling.
Asian stock markets are mixed this morning with the Nikkei (+1.42%) sharply higher, notching an 8-week high. The KOSPI (+0.98%) is also trading in positive territory. In China, the Shanghai Composite (-0.52%) and the CSI (-0.75%) are losing ground with the Hang Seng (-0.04%) struggling to gain traction as the speculation about China’s reopening continues to add market volatility. US stock futures tied to the S&P 500 (-0.09%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.09%) remain rangebound at the time of writing.
We have data from Japan showing that household spending rose +2.3% y/y in September coming in slightly lower than market expectations of a +2.6% increase (v/s a +5.1% gain in August). However, household consumption faces increasing inflationary pressures because of a weaker yen with real wages (adjusted for inflation) falling -1.3% y/y in September (v/s -1.8% expected), its sixth-consecutive decline. This was less than August’s -1.7% drop.
From the Bank of Japan, the Summary of Opinions released overnight showed that policymakers debated the future exit from ultra-low interest rates and its impact on financial markets amid rising prices. According to the summary, some board members argued that the cost-driven inflationary pressures are broadening with one member stressing that a “big overshoot of inflation cannot be ruled out”.
There wasn’t much data of note yesterday, with German industrial production rising by a faster-than-expected +0.6% in September (vs. +0.1% expected). However, the previous month’s contraction was revised to show a worse performance than before.
To the day ahead now, and the highlight will be the US midterm elections. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel and Wunsch, as well as BoE chief economist Pill. Otherwise, data releases include Euro Area retail sales for September, and earnings releases include Disney.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Contained trade across assets ahead of US midterms, whilst crypto sold off overnight – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, NOV 08, 2022 – 06:28 AM
Major bourses in Europe portray a mixed picture with no clear conviction seen heading into the US mid-term elections, US equity futures post mild gains but with price action contained
DXY gleaned some traction across the board amidst a firmer rebound in Treasury yields, renewed weakness in the Yuan and general consolidation ahead of impending risk events
US Treasuries were first off the block in terms of paring more losses from worst levels to turn marginally positive, Gilts followed suit, Bunds remain depressed
WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday as DXY picked up overnight and in early European trade, whilst China’s COVID woes remain a grey cloud for the complex, with daily new cases in China rising to a six-month high for Sunday
Bitcoin was pressured and slipped below the USD 20,000 level, with headwinds also as FTX Token sold off overnight
Looking ahead, highlights include US Midterms, supply from US
Major bourses in Europe portray a mixed picture with no clear conviction seen heading into the US mid-term elections
Sectors are mostly firmer (vs a mostly lower open) with Tech leading the charge with additional help from declining bond yields. Energy and Basic Resources sit as the sectoral laggards amid declines in underlying commodity prices.
US equity futures post mild gains but with price action contained; ES +0.1%.
DXY gleaned some traction across the board amidst a firmer rebound in Treasury yields, renewed weakness in the Yuan and general consolidation ahead of impending risk events.
Yen managed to keep afloat of 147.00 and bucked the overall trend after Japan’s Cabinet approved a second supplementary budget and the BoJ’s SOO highlighted risks of a sharp price overshoot.
European G10s sit as the current laggards, with EUR, GBP, and CHF towards the bottom of the bunch.
US Treasuries were first off the block in terms of paring more losses from worst levels to turn marginally positive
Gilts followed suit as books closed on a well sought after 2038 syndicated offering.
Bunds remain depressed in wake of a somewhat mixed Schatz auction given a bigger retention and hefty concession needed to achieve a 1.2 cover ratio for the new 2 year benchmark.
WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday as DXY picked up overnight and in early European trade, whilst China’s COVID woes remain a grey cloud for the complex, with daily new cases in China rising to a six-month high for Sunday.
Spot gold moves in tandem with the Buck and oscillates on either side of its 50 DMA at USD 1,672/oz today in the run-up to the midterms.
Base metals are mixed with LME copper trading with mild gains just under the USD 8,000/t mark.
Chile’s Codelco offers Chinese copper buyers 2023 supply at a premium USD 140/t (prev. USD 105/t; +33.3% Y/Y) according to Reuters sources.
BoE urged lenders to do more to avoid a repeat of the pensions fund turmoil seen in September, according to FT.
UK PM Sunak is expected to increase pensions and benefits in line with inflation, according to The Times.
UK Chancellor Hunt is to announce a tax raid on inheritance in the Autumn statement, according to The Telegraph and FT.
UK plan to review or repeal all EU laws by end-2023 suffered another setback after 1,400 additional pieces of legislation were discovered, according to FT.
UK and France are reportedly in the final stage of reaching an agreement concerning illegal English Channel crossing, according to FT.
ECB’s de Guindos says ECB will continue raising rates to levels that ensure price stability; levels will depend on data, the evolution of inflation, economic conditions, demand, and energy prices, via Reuters.
ECB’s Nagel says he will do his utmost to make sure the ECB does not let up in the inflation fight, according to Reuters.
SNB’s Jordan says policy decisions must be based on firm commitment to price stability objective; policy decisions must not be based exclusively on inflation forecast, via Reuters.
BoE Chief Economist Pill says there is a danger of self-fulfilling dynamics on wage-cost nexus. Cannot declare victory against second-round effects but is entering a recession. Pill reiterated that there is more to do, and need to raise rates to tighten monetary policy. Pill is sceptical that front-loading hikes has big expectations effect, via Reuters.
UBS (UBSG SW) branches have been searched by German criminal investigators in relation to sanctioned Russian oligarch Usmanov, according to Der Spiegel; searches related to money laundering.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Oct) 1.2% (Prev. 1.8%)
UK BRC Total Sales YY (Oct) 1.6% (Prev. 2.2%)
EU Retail Sales YY* (Sep) -0.6% vs. Exp. -1.3% (Prev. -2.0%, Rev. -1.4%)
EU Retail Sales MM* (Sep) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.3%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINE
China Auto Industry Body CPCA says Tesla (TSLA) exported 54.504 vehicles (vs 5,522 in Sept), via Reuters.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was pressured alongside the cautious risk tone and slipped below the USD 20,000 level, with headwinds also as FTX Token sold off overnight.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said it is vital to force Russia to participate in genuine peace negotiations, according to Reuters.
White House Press Secretary said US President Biden has no intention of meeting Russian President Putin, while State Department spokesman Price said Russia signals that it is focused on escalation, according to Bloomberg.
OTHER
North Korea’s military denied exporting weapons to Russia in which it stated that it has never exported weapons or ammunition to Russia and has no plans to do so, according to Yonhap.
Chinese Foreign Ministry, on President’s Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia, says don’t know the information referred to, according to Reuters.
Chinese President Xi will comprehensively strengthen military training and preparation for any war, according to state media. China’s security is increasingly unstable and uncertain.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mixed as the region only partially sustained the early momentum seen following the positive handover from Wall St with Chinese stocks pressured overnight as infections continued to rise.
ASX 200 traded marginally higher with the index kept afloat by strength in the top-weighted financial industry and gains in consumer-related sectors.
Nikkei 225 was firmer and edged closer to the 28,000 level as participants digested earnings releases and shrugged off mixed household spending data although Average Cash Earnings accelerated.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued despite the reopening rumours which officials pushed back against, while the number of daily new infections continued to climb from 6-month highs.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee dismissed calls to drop the health code for travellers and mask-wearing rules, according to SCMP.
Japanese PM Kishida is to approve USD 198bln extra budget for the stimulus plan, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, Japan’s government is to add JPY 1.4tln of fiscal loans for the second extra budget and will issue JPY 20.4tln in deficit-covering bonds, according to a draft cited by Reuters.
Japan’s cabinet has approved a second supplementary budget with JPY 29.1tln (in-line with prior reports) for FY to fund an economic stimulus package, according to MoF.
BoJ Summary of Opinions stated that Japan’s consumer inflation is likely to continue accelerating as firms pass on higher costs. Furthermore, consumer inflation is likely to slow back below 2% next fiscal year due to the impact of slowing global growth but cannot rule out chances that prices will sharply overshoot forecasts.
RBNZ reappointed Governor Orr as the head for another five-year term, according to Reuters.
Chinese interbank market regulator is to boost support by financing to private firms, will initially support around CNY 250bln of bond financing by private firms including property developers; supported by central bank refinancing.
DATA RECAP
Japanese All Household Spending MM* (Sep) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. -1.7%)
Japanese All Household Spending YY* (Sep) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 5.1%)
Japanese Average Cash Earnings YY (Sep) 2.1% (Prev. 1.7%)
Australian NAB Business Confidence* (Oct) 0 (Prev. 5.0)
Australian NAB Business Conditions* (Oct) 22 (Prev. 25.0)
Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index (Nov) 78.0 (Prev. 83.7)
New Zealand 1yr Inflation Expectations (Q4) 5.1% (Prev. 4.9%)
New Zealand 2yr Inflation Expectations (Q4) 3.6% (Prev. 3.1%)
i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.32 PTS OR 0.43% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 38.60 OR 0.23% /The Nikkei closed UP 334.47 OR 1.25% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.29% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.2548 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.2553// /Oil UP TO 90.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 97.32 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
very worrisome!
North Korea: Record Number Of Missile Tests Was ‘Practice’ To Attack US, South
MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 09:00 PM
North Korea last week fired a missile that crossed over the south’s disputed maritime border for the first time since the division of the Korean peninsula in 1948. On Monday the south’s navy announced it has “recovered what is presumed to be the debris of the North’s short-range ballistic missile.”
Also unprecedented is that the missile landed a mere 50 miles from the South Korean coastal city of Ulsa, Yonhap said, coming amid a record number of missile launches within a 24-hour timeframe last Wednesday.
Pyongyang was reacting to a week of the largest-ever joint US-South Korean military drills, which had a large aerial component of over 200 combined aircraft. The exercises ended on Saturday, and also came as Seoul as well as Washington intelligence officials have been warning allies to expect Kim Jong-Un to conduct a nuclear test at any time.
On Monday North Korea itself explained the ramped up launches for the first time, directing its rhetoric in the form of new threat aimed at the United States. Pyongyang says the military was “simulating the attack” on US and South Korean targets as a result of the provocative six days of drills.
“As part of the countermeasures to smash the continued frenzy of war provocations of the enemy, our army launched to the east sea the super-large multiple launch rocket system, five tactical ballistic missiles of different kinds and 46 long-range missiles of multiple launch rocket system,” state-run KCNA news agency reported of the North Korean military statement.
Pyongyang further claimed it launched a “special functional warhead paralyzing the operation command system of the enemy” along with the “mobilization of 500 fighters” – in reference to fighter jets. Pentagon officials remain skeptical of this claim of the north deploying 500 jet fighters.
US and South Korean officials say they haven’t seen evidence of this “special” warhead that the KCNA statement referenced. The north has vowed to keep up the pressure…
“The recent corresponding military operations by the Korean People’s Army are a clear answer of (North Korea) that the more persistently the enemies’ provocative military moves continue, the more thoroughly and mercilessly the KPA will counter them,” the General Staff of North Korea’s military said in a statement carried by state media.
The region has been put on edge over the rapidly increased numbers of tests, especially US-ally Japan:
Meanwhile, a joint US-South Korea military statement last week warned as follows in response to Pyongyang’s posturing and rhetroic: “Any nuclear attack against the United States or its allies and partners, including the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, is unacceptable and will result in the end of the Kim regime.”
(zerohedge)
end
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/RUSSIA
END
3c CHINA
CHINA/ECONOMY
Chinese exports and imports unexpectedly contract for the first time in two years and you can blame their stupid zero covid policy
(zerohedge)
Chinese Exports And Imports Unexpectedly Contract For The First Time Since May 2020
MONDAY, NOV 07, 2022 – 07:40 PM
As markets debate whether the Fed will follow other central banks with a (soft) pivot, the global economy is going from bad to worse: overnight, the latest Chinese customs data showed that China exports as well as imports unexpectedly contracted simultaneously for the first time since May 2020 as elevated inflation and rising interest rates hurt global demand.
Chinese exports declined (-0.3% y/y) in October (vs exp +4.5%), the first drop since May 2020 on Covid outbreaks and weak external demand, following a +5.7% increase in September while the implied sequential export growth dropped to -3.8% m/m in October (vs. +0.5% in September).
Imports fell (-0.7% y/y) following a +0.3% gain in the previous month, while sequentially imports fell 3.5% mom sa non-annualized in October (vs. -1.0% in September). Import value declined sequentially on the lower prices of metal ores and weaker imports of tech-related products, such as computers and LCD panels. The trade surplus was well below consensus from weaker exports, though the level was slightly higher than September.
The overall trade surplus slightly widened to a near +$85.15 billion (up from $84.74 billion in September, but below the forecast of $95.97 billion).
According to Goldman, the export weakness broadened across destinations and products. Import of energy goods accelerated somewhat despite a weak import print. Other than weaker DM demand on tighter financial conditions and the ongoing European energy crisis, the contraction of exports partially came from port operation disruptions due to Covid outbreaks.
Some more details on China’s trade data from Goldman:
1. By major export destination, exports weakness broadened in October. The year-over-year growth of exports decelerated across most major trading partners. Among major DM countries, growth of exports to the European Union decelerated the most (-9.0% yoy in October vs. 5.6% in September). Growth of exports to United States decelerated to -12.6% yoy in October (vs. -11.6% in September). Among major EM economies, growth of exports to ASEAN decelerated to 20.3% yoy in October (vs. 29.5% in September), and the implied sequential growth turned negative.
2. By major export category, export growth moderated across most products. The export growth of tech-related products dropped the most (cellphones and LCD panels, see Exhibit 3).
Among tech-related products, exports of LCD panels declined 16.2% yoy in October (vs. -6.6% in September), and export growth of cellphones moderated to 7.0% yoy in October (vs. 23.2% in September). Among housing-related products, exports of home appliances fell 25.0% yoy in October (vs. -19.8% in September). Among Covid-related products, exports of computers declined 16.5% yoy in October (vs. -12.6% in September).
3. Among major import categories, import growth of most energy goods remained solid in October on efforts to ensure energy security, and manufacturing related products rebounded.
Among energy goods, import growth of crude oil picked up to 43.8% yoy in October (vs. +34.2% in September) with import volume up 14.1% yoy (vs. -2.0% yoy in September). Import growth of coal accelerated somewhat to 2.8% yoy in October (vs. +1.5% in September) with volume up 8.3% yoy (vs. 0.5% yoy in September). Among major metal ores, import values declined on lower prices. For instance, iron ore import value fell 26.8% yoy in October (vs. -38.8% in September) with import volume up 3.7% yoy (vs. +4.3% yoy in September). Among manufacturing related products, import growth of machine tools rebounded significantly in sequential terms (+44% mom sa non-annualized in October).
end
CHINA/TAIWAN/UK
OK, let’s get China angry!! UK trade minister makes a rare visit to Taiwan
(zerohedge)
China Seethes As UK Trade Minister Makes Rare Taiwan Visit
TUESDAY, NOV 08, 2022 – 04:15 AM
China in a blistering rebuke to the UK has demanded it stop all official exchanges with Taiwan as this week British Trade Policy Minister Greg Hands is visiting the self-ruled island. He landed in Taipei Monday, which marks the first trip of a British minister to Taiwan since 2018.
“We urge the UK to earnestly respect China’s sovereignty, uphold the One China principle, stop any form of official interaction with Taiwan and stop sending wrong signals to Taiwan independence separatist forces,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said. “China firmly rejects any form of official exchanges with the Taiwan region by any countries having diplomatic ties with China.”
Zhao further demanded that “stop any form of official exchanges with Taiwan and stop sending wrong signals to Taiwan separatist forces.“
During the two-day visit Trade minister Hands will meet with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and he’ll co-host the 25th annual trade talks between the sides. This is expected to lead to a written agreement outlining a plan for deepened cooperation and trade.
The talks are expected to address remaining barriers in a number of sectors, including “fintech, food and drink and pharma” – at a time trade between the two is quickly rising, having risen 14% over the last two years, to an estimated $9 billion.
The foreign ministry condemnation and statement was typical in terms of the response to Western government officials’ visits to Taiwan.
Of course, the fiercest reaction came in the wake of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s brief visit in early August. China fired a missile over the island and conducted many days of encircling large-scale military drills.
As for this week’s UK-Taiwan trade talks, London and Taipei are expected to produce Memorandum of Understanding pledging increased collaboration between the two sides’ respective respective economy and trade ministries especially in the areas of technology and innovation.
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS
EUROPE/Energy costs
Gas and electricity bills nearly double in all EU capitals
A utility bill burns during a protest by shopkeepers against the costs of living, in Turin, Italy, Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2022. – Copyright Matteo Secci/LaPresse
Energy costs for households across Europe nearly doubled compared to a year ago, new data has revealed.
Gas bills have soared 111% and electricity ones 69%, according to the latest figures from the Household Energy Price Index.
Averaged, these two figures mean an energy bill increase of 90% — or nearly double — compared to October 2021.
The research, published on Monday by Energie-Control Austria, the Hungarian Energy and Public Utility Regulatory Authority (MEKH) and VaasaETT, highlights the bruising impact of the Ukraine war on Europe, which has triggered a cost of living crisis and plunged many economies into recession.
Pinpointing how the Russian invasion impacted energy prices, the authors said it had caused “uncertainty over energy security” and “reduced deliveries of Russian gas or [the] complete termination of supply”.
Russia reduced and eventually halted Nord Stream gas supplies to Europe in September, after western countries sanctioned Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, with the US accusing Russia of “weaponising energy”
The Household Energy Price Index report looked at gas and electricity prices from 2009 to October 2022 in 33 European countries — including EU member states as well as Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Ukraine, the UK and Switzerland.
It found that recent energy price spikes followed record-breaking increases in 2021 caused by higher demand as people and businesses recovered from the COVID pandemic.
“Significantly higher [energy prices] compared to one year ago … can be attributed to a combination of factors, such as increased demand connected to post-pandemic economic recovery and extraordinary weather conditions, the record-high prices for natural gas, and high CO2 emissions allowances,” wrote the authors.
Residents of Amsterdam paid the most in Europe for natural gas at twice the European average, followed by Copenhagen, Denmark, according to the report.
The amount forked out by those living in the Dutch capital is almost 17 times higher than in Hungary’s Budapest, the cheapest capital city for gas in the European Union (EU).
Hungarians have traditionally enjoyed cheaper energy due to generous government price controls put in place in 2014, though the country recently tightened rules to restrict eligibility.
Outside of the EU, the report found that people in Kyiv pay the least for their gas, 19 times less than those in Amsterdam.
Power supply in the Ukrainian capital became a major issue in October, with Russian forces bombing the country’s energy infrastructure, causing frequent blackouts.
A view of Podil district during a blackout in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, Nov. 4, 2022.Andrew Kravchenko/Copyright 2022 The AP. All rights reserved.
The report also looked at “significant” price changes in individual European capitals during October.
In Rome, it revealed that gas costs increased by 97% last month and more than 170% compared to one year ago.
This was due to “increases in energy and distribution components” in Italy, while price hikes of 64% and 58% were recorded in Luxembourg City and Lisbon respectively.
Gas prices in Rome, Luxembourg, Lisbon, Dublin, Paris, Vienna, Brussels, Bern, Copenhagen, and Stockholm reached new, record highs.
But it wasn’t all doom and gloom. Gas bills fell in many parts of Europe, mostly due to government intervention, though the report added “current prices remain incredibly high compared to a year ago”.
A 55% reduction in prices was reported in Athens. This, according to the report, was due to decreases in “energy taxes” and “the government’s price compensation scheme”.
Greek authorities have rewarded consumers who cut down on their electricity consumption with cheaper bills, alongside imposing a cap on payments to power producers. It is partially funding these measures through a windfall tax on energy companies.
Sofia, Tallinn, Madrid, Berlin and Riga all saw gas price decreases of 29%, 25%, 12%, 11% and 5% respectively.
These prices do not relate to the amount paid by customers on fixed-price contracts.
Electricity
End users electricity prices also varied hugely across Europe.
Copenhagen and Rome are the most expensive cities for European households, followed by Amsterdam and Berlin, according to the report.
Feeling the crunch, the German capital has switched off the lights on many of its most famous landmarks, such as the Humboldt University, the German Historical Museum and Brandenburg Gate.
People in other parts of the country have been urged by local authorities to shower with cold water.
The Berlin Cathedral is no longer fully illuminated in Berlin, Germany, Wednesday, July 27, 2022.Paul Zinken/(c) Copyright 2022, dpa (www.dpa.de). Alle Rechte vorbehalten
Those in eastern and central Europe enjoyed the cheapest electricity, with Kyivans paying the least, followed by locals in Belgrade, Budapest and Podgorica, the capital of Montenegro.
In Prague and Tallinn prices are above average for the region.
Again the report looked at individual countries, highlighting the most significant changes during the last month.
The top three capitals with the largest price increases were Dublin (44%), Rome (30%) and Vienna (24%).
In the Irish capital, the report noted “a remarkable price increase”, caused by “unprecedented continuous rising wholesale prices, particularly for gas”.
Natural gas provides around a third of Ireland’s energy, meaning the country is vulnerable to price shocks.
Prices paid by locals in these cities reached record highs, along with Berlin, Copenhagen, Brussels, Athens and Prague.
However, the report noted that while household electricity prices continued their “upward trend in October”, this was on a “much smaller scale” compared to previous months.
Electricity prices decreased in Riga (29%), Tallinn (22%), Oslo (10%), Madrid (9%), Helsinki (6%), Zagreb (3%) and Paris (2%).
end
POLAND/EU
Poland has fulfilled 15 out of 20 milestones ordered by the EU. The last 5 are judicial of which Poland will not concede. Poland now draws the line in the sand wants the “recovery funds” owed to them. If they do not receive these funds, it looks like we will have a Pole-Exit from the EU
(Remix)
Poland Draws Line In The Sand With EU: “We Fulfilled Requirements, And We Are Owed The Funds,” Says President
EU politicians and officials have been turning the financial screws on Poland. Has the country finally had enough?
Polish President Andrzej Duda, right, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speak after at a joint news conference in Konstancin-Jeziorna, Poland, Thursday, June 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Michal Dyjuk)
The Polish government says it will make no further concessions to the European Union in order to unlock tens of billions in EU funding, arguing that Poland has fulfilled all its obligations and Brussels owes them the money.
“Poland fulfilled all conditions set by the European Commission regarding the payment of the Recovery Funds it is due,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said. He added that “he does not intend to answer any comments from Brussels on the matter.”
Brussels, for its part, has threatened Poland with catastrophic funding cuts totaling up to €110 billion; this would hobble the Polish economy, which has suffered due to the global economic downturn, inflation, and the refugee crisis from Ukraine.
In an interview for the conservative Sieci, Duda admitted that he does not believe that trying to fulfill the expectations of “the other side” could bring any results. “I believe that a lot of good will was showcased from the Polish side,” he stated.
“And we know very well that there is a group from Poland there that has a policy of contradicting the basic interests of the Polish state and is content when Poland is being harmed by Brussels,” said Poland’s president. He also mentioned the liberal-left representatives who “have seats in the European Commission and want to change the ruling party in Poland at all costs.”
According to the latest statements of the Polish authorities, Poland has still not sent a request for a payment of the Recovery Funds to Brussels. Meanwhile, information has appeared in the public space that the Commission confirmed that Warsaw has fulfilled 15 out of 20 milestones necessary for the payments of the first tranche of funds.
The National Recovery Fund for Poland involves €24 billion in grants and €11.5 billion in loans, but it is just one type of fund that Poland has yet to receive from Brussels. In June, the European Commission finally accepted the Polish plan, however, it made the payment of the funds dependent on the fulfillment of the so-called milestones. In the case of Poland, those milestones concern mostly the judicial system. Brussels does not recognize that Poland fulfilled its obligations, so the payment of the National Recovery Fund remains frozen.
END
SPAIN
The drought in Spain worsens and this is going to force one of their largest hydro power plants to halt operations. Ths will send electricity prices higher
(zerohedge)
One Of Spain’s Largest Hydro-Power Plants To Halt Operations As Drought Worsens
TUESDAY, NOV 08, 2022 – 02:45 AM
A large drop in renewable energy output is forcing Spain to increase natural gas demand to generate electricity at a time Europe is in the worst energy crisis in a generation.
Spain’s hydropower output has been halved this year due to drought, and things could get a lot worse as one of the country’s largest hydropower plants is set to close.
Bloomberg reported the Mequinenza facility in the northeastern region of Aragon would halt hydropower generation in mid-November after water levels were 23% below capacity. It’ll be the first time the hydro plant has closed since it was constructed in 1996.
In the week through Nov. 1, Mequinenza was only producing 6,221 gigawatt-hours or operating at around 27% of total capacity. According to Bloomberg calculations based on Environmental Transition Ministry data, water levels in the reservoir have hit the lowest level since 1995. This means there’s not enough water flow to turn the plant’s turbines.
Spain’s hydropower generation has tumbled a whopping 53% this year through October, according to grid operator Red Electrica Corporacion SA. So when temperatures rise, and droughts persist, the hydropower industry gets squeezed hard.
Regarding other renewables like wind and solar, there is not enough output between the two to offset the loss in hydro, which means Spain has increased NatGas demand for power generation.
Data via network operator Enagas SA shows NatGas demand to generate electricity jumped 78% through October.
“A steep fall in renewable energy output is prompting the Mediterranean country to tap the fossil fuel to generate electricity at a time when Europe struggles with an unprecedented energy crisis following Russia’s decision to cut supply, which pushed prices to a record high,” Bloomberg said.
END
UK
This should cause a huge uproar with K senior citizens: a freeze of pension allowances. With a huge rise in energy costs where are seniors going to get the comey to pay for these costs
(zerohedge)
UK To Announce A Stealth Tax Raid On Pensions
TUESDAY, NOV 08, 2022 – 05:45 AM
It’s remarkable to think that it was just 6 weeks ago when the UK revealed its biggest spending spree in decades – one which sparked a bond market crisis, a political shake up and the resignation of the now former PM Liz Truss. Fast forward to today when in a dramatic reversal, we learn that the UK is sinking into Greek-style austerity: the Telegraph reports that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and finance minister Jeremy Hunt plan to reveal a stealth tax raid on pensions later this month.
The pension lifetime allowance is set to be frozen for two more years, with a rise in line with prices delayed from 2025 to 2027, the newspaper said.
The allowance level has risen with prices in the past, but Sunak – as finance minister last year – froze the allowance until 2025. The move was forecast to bring the Treasury close to a billion pounds over the period, Telegraph said. And with the UK set to remain in a recessionary stagflation, with near-double digit CPI for the foreseeable future, UK retirees’ purchasing power will be drained faster than Biden can syphon away oil from the US SPR.
The Treasury is now planning to announce that the freeze will be extended until 2027, the end of the five-year period for which plans will be produced, the report said.
Sunak and Hunt, who need to fill a fiscal gap of nearly 50 billion pounds ($56.88 billion) during the Nov. 17 budget, have agreed to split the cost roughly equally between spending cuts and tax rises, according to the Telegraph.
The duo do not want to break the 2019 Tory election manifesto promises or raise the rates of major taxes, the Telegraph said citing Treasury sources. They are also determined to make sure the well-off carry more of the burden for the tax rises than the poorest, a move which means that another government crisis is assured in the very near term.
Separately, the Times reported that Sunak warned that people cannot expect the state to “fix every problem” and vowed to regain the trust of voters by being honest about the scale of the economic difficulties ahead.
Finally, the FT also reports that Sunak is under pressure regarding bullying claims concerning one of his closest political allies with the opposition Labor party calling for an independent investigation of allegations of bullying by Sir Gavin Williamson who was appointed as Minister of State without Portfolio last month.
In short: just the right amount of fear, loathing, chaos and confusion, that one has grown to expect from UK politics.
END
FRANCE/CHINA/USA
Doorknob! How stupid can France be?
(zerohedge)
Macron Urges US, China To Pay Their “Fair Share” For Climate Change
TUESDAY, NOV 08, 2022 – 06:30 AM
As the world’s biggest hypocrites arrive in their private jets at the UN Climate Summit in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh (or as Rabo’s Michael Every puts it, “Sham el-Chic”), French President Emmanuel Macron quickly made an early splash (perhaps more so even than Greta who is trying to get rich from her book telling us how we need to destroy capitalism), when he “urged” the United States, China and other non-European rich nations to pay their fair share to help poorer countries deal with climate change.
“We need the United States and China to step up” on emissions cuts and financial aid, Macron told French and African climate campaigners on Monday on the sidelines of the COP27 summit.
“Europeans are paying,” he said.
“We are the only ones paying.”
“Pressure must be put on rich non-European countries, telling them, ‘you have to pay your fair share’,” he said, using every socialist’s favorite term.
Stepping up financial aid to poorer countries that face the brunt of climate-induced disasters has emerged as a major issue at the 13-day climate conference that began on Sunday.
The heads of developing nations won a small victory when delegates agreed to put the controversial issue of money for “loss and damage” on the agenda.
Nearly 100 heads of state and government will listen to each other speak (words pre-written by the green lobby) at the summit on Monday and Tuesday, but as always when it comes to these ridiculously idiotic boondoggles, China’s President Xi Jinping, whose country is the world’s top emitter of greenhouse gases, is not attending the conference.
Joe Biden, head of the country which ranks second on the top-polluters list, will join COP27 later this week after his Democratic party suffers a tsunami loss in the midterm elections on Tuesday that could put Republicans hostile to international action on climate change in charge of Congress.
Fresh from his own election victory, Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is expected to attend the summit later on, with hopes that he will protect the Amazon from deforestation after defeating climate-sceptic President Jair Bolsonaro. Spoiler alert: he won’t; if anything he will profit from accelerating it.
Another new leader, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, reversed a decision not to attend the talks and is due to urge countries to move “further and faster” in transitioning away from fossil fuels.
END
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE
So much for democracy in this failed state: Ukraine seizes 5 major Ukrainian companies from billionaire oligarchs
(zerohedge)
Ukraine Seizes 5 Major Companies From Billionaire Oligarchs For ‘Wartime Needs’
TUESDAY, NOV 08, 2022 – 06:55 AM
For the first time since the Russian invasion began back in February, the Ukrainian government has invoked wartime laws to dramatically intervene into the private business sector, seizing five “strategically important” companies for state and military use. It comes a year after President Zelensky’s so-called “de-oligarchization” reforms and targets companies run by some of Ukraine’s wealthiest billionaire businessmen – at least a couple of which are facing major corruption investigations.
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov announced Monday at a press briefing in Kiev, “As of today, the specified assets are managed on behalf of the state and in the interests of the entire security sector — to meet the needs of the Armed Forces and the entire defense sector.”
Specific “urgent” military and national needs which were cited include maintaining fuel supply and adequate equipment repair lines, as well as accessing steady quantities of industrial lubricants. The companies were transferred directly under management of Ukraine’s defense ministry. “This is about providing fuel and lubricants, repairing military equipment and weapons,” Reznikov said.
The National Securities and Stock Market Commission starting Sunday issued the order to secure shares in aircraft engine manufacturer Motor Sich, oil producer Ukrnafta PJSC, and oil-refining company Ukrtatnafta. These latter two oil industry companies were controlled by Igor Kolomoisky, a controversial previously pro-Zelensky oligarch under investigation for the insolvency of PrivatBank. Also seized were truck maker Avtokraz and parts supplier Zaporizhtransformator.
As for the oligarchs behind MotorSich, AvtoKraz, Zaporizhtransformator, the FT profiles them as follows:
Vyacheslav Boguslaev, MotorSich’s former owner and president, was arrested last month on treason charges. Local prosecutors allege he funnelled through sanctioned export operations helicopter engines that Moscow needed. Boguslaev sold his controlling stake in MotorSich to Chinese company Skyrizon many years ago, but Ukrainian trust and security authorities blocked the move by freezing the shares. Both Kolomoisky and Boguslaev have denied wrongdoing.
AvtoKraz, a truck manufacturer which produces vehicles for domestic military transport as well as rocket systems, was also among the groups taken under state control. It was previously owned by Ukrainian oligarch Kostyantyn Zhevago, who has lived in exile in the past years as Ukrainian authorities pursued cases against him related to the insolvency of a bank he previously owned.
Zaporizhtransformator, an electricity grid parts producer located in Zaporizhzhia, was also seized by the state. Previously owned by businessmen including Kostyantyn Grigorishin, its seizure is designed to secure stable supply of parts needed to repair Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure.
Ukraine government authorities vowed in the Monday statement that “After martial law is lifted, these assets may be returned to their owners or their value may be reimbursed.” And further,“These enterprises must operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week for the needs of the state’s defense.”
“In connection with military necessity, a decision was made to expropriate the assets of strategically important enterprises into state ownership,” the Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, explained further in a joint presser.
The unprecedented move comes amid the backdrop of Russia’s persistent devastating aerial attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure, with some 40% of all electrical facilities having been damaged or destroyed.
In announcing the state seizures, Ukrainian officials quickly went on defensive, given they’ve consistently cast the current crisis as Kiev leading the way in defending not only Ukrainian democracy but also “European Democratic values” more broadly. “We are defending not only Ukraine, but also European democratic values,” Kyiv Mayor Klitschko and Ukrainian Minister Chernyshov told an EU body of lawmakers last month.
Perhaps bracing for criticisms from some nervous corners of the Ukrainian private sector, Reznikov was quoted Reuters on Monday as claiming these are not “nationalizations” – but instead he argued, “This is a direct taking over of assets during wartime. These are totally different legal forms.” There were no statements coming from the five companies Monday in reaction to the state takeovers.
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES.
Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries
Funeral home businesses are flourishing because of excess deaths. The problem is the vaccine which is affecting immunity. Thus cancers, heart attacks (myocardis)
are increasing dramatically
(Alex Berenson)
The Funeral Business Is Booming (And Not Because Of COVID)
Today Service Corporation International, the largest for-profit funeral operator in North America, had its quarterly earnings call. SCI had another great quarter, you’ll be pleased to hear! So far in 2022 the company has made almost $500 million in profits – and its stock is up over 15% since last week’s earnings report.
(Death is your best investment!)
SCI’s management seems fairly open with investors. For many years, much of the company’s growth came from buying family-run funeral homes as their operators, umm, died out. The underlying funeral business is slow growth and very predictable.
If you go back in this industry and particularly with SCI, year-to-year you would see the numbers of deaths — probably in one year you may be down 1% or 2%, in the next year you’re up 1% or 2% which you could predict was pretty good accuracy over a year and over a big footprint like ours what was probably going to happen… 2020 comes along, Covid, game-changer, right. We’re having to do at one point of time 20 percent more funerals which is unheard of in a year versus, let’s say, a year or two before.
So Service Corporation expected that once Covid passed, its business would go back to normal…
What we would have expected is, why wouldn’t we go back towards, let’s say, a 2019 level, maybe you get a percent or so growth of 2019, I would expect that. So that would be a reasonable level that we think would stabilize. And that’s kind of what we anticipated…
Only that’s not what has happened.
What we’re telling you is, the third quarter of this year, we did 15% more calls than we did in the third quarter of 2019. That is not what anybody would have anticipated and that has just a very de minimis amount of Covid deaths[emphasis added] in it.
Covid is gone. But people keep dying. Why?
Unsurprisingly, Ryan did not mention mRNA vaccines anywhere. Why would he? Doing so would only make for headaches he and Service Corporation do not need.
But, earlier in the call, he did point to “more cancer deaths” and more broadly a decline in overall health:
We believe these excess services are more permanent in nature into a combination of aging demographics, higher risk, less healthy lifestyle developed during the pandemic.
Ryan also suggested delayed medical care might be an issue.
These explanations are… strained, at best. Aging demographics are hardly new, and the lockdowns that drove a “less healthy lifestyle” ended as early as mid-2020 in most red states and by early 2021 almost everywhere. Opioids and overdoses generally remain a horrendous crisis, but deaths appear to have peaked in early 2022 and fallen slightly since. And for all the discussion of delays in medical care, hospitals and doctors offices have functioned essentially normally for at least 18 months.
In any case, the United States is hardly alone in seeing a large and so far unexplained spike in deaths in 2022.
Countries from Germany to Australia to Taiwan are seeing similar trends.
They all have something in common. No points for guessing what.
In any case, Service Corporation is expecting business to stay good for years to come.
“These trends are hard to reverse quickly,” Ryan said.
“I hope three, four, five years from now will subside a bit. But I don’t think it’s any time soon.”
* * *
[ZH: It is not just funeral services companies. Market participants were somewhat stunned when Lincoln Financial announced results last week and shares collapsed over 30% after a shocking, and unexpected, $2.6 billion Q3 loss.
“A Catastrophe (and Not the Natural Kind),” Wells Fargo Securities analysts said in a note to clients Wednesday night, following the after-market release of earnings by the Pennsylvania life-insurance and annuities company.
What drove the big loss?
So, we wonder, is that the post-vaxx-new-normal-world-order trade: Short Life Insurers, Long Funeral Service Providers?]
end
A must read!!
The Truth About Ivermectin Miracle Drug Against COVID
Robert Hryniak
1:12 PM (1 minute ago)
to
Makes you wonder how many people could have avoided the dysfunctional last 2 years if this was mainstream, and how many continue to suffer consequences of not making this widespread acceptability.
Do you remember in early 2020 when they told us that the shortages that we were experiencing would just be temporary? Of course some of them were, but then more shortages just kept on erupting. That wasn’t supposed to happen, and now it appears that our supply chain problems could potentially get a whole lot worse. In just a few short months, we will be three years away from the beginning of the pandemic in the United States. But instead of a “return to normal”, more shortages are on the way. And in some cases, they could even be life threatening.
Let me give you an example. We need Amoxicillin to treat some of the most common infections that our children experience. Unfortunately, the FDA is warning us that we are now facing a very serious shortage of Amoxicillin…
Ear infections and strep throat.
Both are common childhood illnesses, for which the go-to prescription is in short supply, according to a recent nationwide alert from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
The warning specifically involves the powder, which pharmacists use to mix liquid Amoxicillin for childhood infections.
This is a really big deal.
According to one recent survey, close to two-thirds of all pharmacies in the nation are having difficulty getting Amoxicillin right now, and the national shortage of Adderall is even worse…
Nearly 66% of pharmacies are having challenges obtaining amoxicillin, according to a new National Community Pharmacists Association (NCPA) survey of 8000 pharmacy owners and managers, whereas 89% are realizing a shortage of Adderall.
Of course we are dealing with lots of other drug shortages at this moment as well.
In fact, according to the official FDA drug shortage list there are nationwide shortages of a whopping 183 different drugs in the United States right now.
The Canadian healthcare system is experiencing an acute shortage of basic painkillers, particularly acetaminophen and ibuprofen, which are commonly used to relieve pain and fever in children during flu season.
Canada’s Association of Medical Assistance in Dying Assessors and Providers (CAMAP) chose this perhaps awkward moment to roll out a webinar for healthcare professionals that advised them to offer assisted suicide to their suffering patients.
So why don’t the Canadians have enough Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen right now?
CBC News quoted health officials who blamed “a lack of raw ingredients to make the drugs,” “an uptick in respiratory viruses fueled by the relaxed [Chinese coronavirus] measures,” and “panic buying” for the shortage of painkillers for children.
As I have covered in previous articles, most of the basic ingredients that go into our pharmaceutical drugs come from China.
So if you think that things are bad now, just wait until war with China erupts.
Once that happens, our pharmacies will get really empty and our entire healthcare system will experience a historic meltdown.
Switching gears, with Thanksgiving coming up I wanted to talk about the fact that we are now facing a nationwide shortage of turkeys…
As CNBC reports, the price of turkey is up 73% from last year, a pretty astonishing figure. Experts attribute it to the bird flu, which has devastated turkey stocks this year. Apparently, the disease normally doesn’t flourish during the summer as farmers get their holiday flocks together. But, you know, the 2020s haven’t been easy so naturally, the flu hit hard right in the middle of the year when it could do the most damage.
The good news, if you want to call it that, is that you will still probably be able to get a turkey if you are willing to pay enough.
The bad news is that supplies of turkey just keep getting tighter and tighter.
One business owner in San Francisco recently stated that it is “like pulling teeth trying to get turkeys from the companies” at this stage…
But it’s not just the Thanksgiving bird that’s at risk — it’s your lunchtime turkey sandwich, too. San Francisco delis and butchers are already feeling the effects of the shortage.
“It’s like pulling teeth trying to get turkeys from the companies,” said Sal Qaqundah, owner of Arguello Market, a San Francisco cult favorite for its “world famous” turkey sandwich.
Unfortunately, we are also facing a shortage of butter in the weeks ahead.
The USDA is urging consumers not to “panic buy” butter so that there will be enough to go around for everyone…
Butter is another area where the war and cost of dairy products has affected supply, as the price of the condiment and baking ingredient has gone up a dollar per pound since January of this year, per Eater. Fearing a full-blown butter shortage, the USDA has asked consumers not to rush or panic buy, but simply secure what they need at a given time, per Best Life.
Did you ever imagine that we would be talking about a butter shortage in late 2022?
Things just keep getting crazier and crazier.
And if the diesel fuel shortages eventually get as bad as some are projecting, we could soon be facing severe shortages of countless products.
Our ships, our trains and our trucks run on diesel fuel.
So if there is not enough diesel fuel, we are going to have a real problem trying to fill up our stores with enough stuff for everybody.
Even now, supplies of diesel fuel are so tight that one big player in the industry just issued a major alert…
A major fuel supply and logistics company is raising a red flag on upcoming diesel fuel shortages.
Mansfield Energy issued the alert Friday stating there was a developing diesel fuel shortage in the southeastern region of the United States. The company speculated that the shortage could be generated from “poor pipeline shipping economies” and a historically low supply of diesel reserves.
“Poor pipeline shipping economics and historically low diesel inventories are combining to cause shortages in various markets throughout the Southeast,” the company said. “These have been occurring sporadically, with areas like Tennessee seeing particularly acute challenges.”
There are a number of reasons why supplies of diesel fuel have gotten so tight.
But the primary reason is the cutoff of Russian imports. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. was importing nearly 700,000 barrels per day (BPD) of petroleum and petroleum products. Most of those imports were finished products and refinery inputs that boosted distillate supplies in the U.S.
The loss of those Russian imports have caused problems for refineries as they struggle to fill holes in their product slates. Refineries do have a small amount of flexibility in shifting gasoline production to diesel production. But it’s a relatively small amount (e.g., ~5% in a refinery I once worked in). That also means that if refiners do shift production, that also potentially creates shortages in the gasoline market.
So why don’t we just produce more ourselves?
Well, thanks to our politicians, the number of refineries in the United States has actually been declining in recent years even as our population has grown.
At this point we simply do not have enough refineries, and this is a problem that is not going away any time soon.
In the months ahead, we aren’t going to completely run out of diesel fuel as some people out there are suggesting.
But supplies may get so tight that it could potentially create widespread supply chain nightmares that are quite severe.
Let us hope that such a scenario does not materialize.
Because the American people are already angry enough about the economy. In fact, a brand new survey has found that it is the number one issue for U.S. voters at this moment…
The Washington Post and ABC gave Americans eight top issues they will be considering when making their decision in a poll that showed likely voters split between the Democrats and Republicans.
The economy was cited by 26 percent of likely voters as one of the most important factors, followed by abortion with 22 percent and inflation and threats to democracy each by 21 percent.
For decades, we have been able to rely on our supply chains to continuously fill our stores with mountains of cheap goods.
I know that many of you have been patiently waiting for a long time for life to “return to normal”.
Sadly, that isn’t going to happen. The incredibly bad decisions that our leaders have been making are now catching up with us in a major way, and a great deal of pain is ahead.
Dr. Harvey Risch of Yale, globe’s top epidemiologist, pounded LANCET for this fraud, good for him, we owe him thanks for his relentless accuracy in fraudulent research publishing now; TRISTAN JUSTICE
Medical research publishing, it is dead, dead on arrival. COVID killed it. Their politics and greed and malfeasance killed it. We will never believe the veracity of academic medical journal publishing again, nor the fraudulent journal editors. Sold out.
with significant rises seen for the youngest-aged females and males even through the most recent period of the Omicron surge (10/2021-3/2022) excess deaths was most pronounced for the youngest (25-44)
Do I need remind you when the vaccines were rolled out? e.g. January to February 2021. Of course it is due to the vaccine, from middle 2021 to now, virus deaths have gone flat. Vaccine linked deaths have steadily increased and remained so. Moreover, we see a bi-modal distribution where severe outcomes and deaths happen in the first week to 10 days post COVID vaccine then flatten out and then rise again 5 to 6 months out.
“The excess death, defined as the difference between the observed and the predicted mortality rates, was most pronounced for the youngest (25-44 years) aged decedents, ranging from 23% to 34% for the youngest compared to 13%-18% for the oldest age groups. The trend of mortality suggests that age and sex disparities have persisted even through the recent Omicron surge, with excess AMI-associated mortality being most pronounced in younger-aged adults.”
“The COVID-19 pandemic has had a detrimental impact on the healthcare system. Our study armed to assess the extent and the disparity in excess acute myocardial infarction (AMI)-associated mortality during the pandemic, through the recent Omicron outbreak. Using data from the CDC’s National Vital Statistics System, we identified 1 522 669 AMI-associated deaths occurring between 4/1/2012 and 3/31/2022. Accounting for seasonality, we compared age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for AMI-associated deaths between pre-pandemic and pandemic periods, including observed versus predicted ASMR, and examined temporal trends by demographic groups and region. Before the pandemic, AMI-associated mortality rates decreased across all subgroups.
These trends reversed during the pandemic, with significant rises seen for the youngest-aged females and males even through the most recent period of the Omicron surge (10/2021-3/2022). The SAPC in the youngest and middle-age group in AMI-associated mortality increased by 5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6%-9.1%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.1%-6.8%), respectively.
The excess death, defined as the difference between the observed and the predicted mortality rates, was most pronounced for the youngest (25-44 years) aged decedents, ranging from 23% to 34% for the youngest compared to 13%-18% for the oldest age groups. The trend of mortality suggests that age and sex disparities have persisted even through the recent Omicron surge, with excess AMI-associated mortality being most pronounced in younger-aged adults.”
VACCINE IMPACT
Are You Ready For The Coming US Government Default?
November 7, 2022 5:08 pm
The U.S. national debt has topped $31.2 trillion. Tack on the debt of households, businesses, state and local governments, and financial institutions, and you’re looking at a total U.S. debt over $92.9 trillion. As the Fed hikes interest rates to contain the raging inflation of its making, the cost of servicing government debt increases. Total U.S. tax revenue is approximately $4.9 trillion. Total U.S. interest paid is over $3.4 trillion. Before long it will take 100 percent of tax revenue just to service the debt interest. Then what? The popular American myth is that the U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt. Quite frankly, that’s an unadulterated lie. The U.S. government has (unofficially) defaulted on its debt twice within the last hundred years. Executive Order 6102 of 1933, which forced all American citizens to turn in gold coins and bars, was, in fact, a default. Gold ownership in the United States, with some small limitations, was illegal for the next 40 years. The second default occurred in 1971, when President Nixon “temporarily” suspended the convertibility of the dollar into gold. Prior to 1971, as determined by the Bretton Woods international monetary system, which was agreed to in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in July 1944, a foreign bank could exchange $35 with the U.S. Treasury for one troy ounce of gold. After the U.S. reneged on this established exchange rate, when foreign banks handed the U.S. Treasury $35, they received $35 in exchange. In both instances, the U.S. government didn’t overtly default on the debt. Instead, it changed the fundamentals – the terms and conditions – of the dollar. By all honest accounts, these are defaults. What dirty trick does Uncle Sam have up his dirty sleeve this time? One possible swindle is the issuance of a digital dollar – a Fed or government issued central bank digital currency (CBDC) – which is traceable and programmable. When it is introduced, your accounts will be credited one for one, as in one federal reserve note for one digital dollar. But what you’ll be able to buy in return with your digital dollars will be far less. You see, the digital dollar roll out will provide elaborate cover. Make no mistake. This is a default. And it is coming much sooner than you think. Are you ready?
Kish, since you are wondering, is an Iranian island in the Persian Gulf famed for its tourist and shopping attractions. It is becoming a serious rival to other nearby vacation hubs in Doha and Dubai.
Along with pristine beaches and extensive malls, Kish is—or rather ought to be—known more widely for another feature and institution which the Iranian mullahs established there way back in 2003; namely, the Kish Bourse (i.e., Kish Stock Exchange). بورس کیش if you prefer the Farsi.
Think of it as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange of Iran, a country stacked with natural resources, a relatively well-educated and sophisticated population (the literacy rate is 97 percent among young adults, which, if you consider the deplorable state of secondary education in the United States, means that Iranian youth are most assuredly smarter than your average young American adult), and an economy burdened by mismanagement of their own Islamic theocracy and crippling, long-duration sanctions from the American secular theocracy.
That American secular theocracy has considered it a dogmatic rite of passage into the state and corporate media (their temples) that one must, at the very least, excuse the economic, cultural, and political warfare against Iran as necessary for a variety of spurious reasons. Who really has enough free time to investigate and then suggest otherwise? After all, Iran is plagued by terroristic Islamic fundamentalists who have pledged—like their former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—“to wipe Israel off the face of the earth.”
That hero of American warfare and empire and regime change and nation building, George W. Bush, declared Iran to be one of the hinges of the “axis of evil”; so, since George W. Bush is so much better than Donald J. Trump, well, all Iranians must be malevolent thugs. Iran deserved to have the United States aid Saddam Hussein in the 1980s, to have the United States provide Hussein chemical weapons (mostly made in Germany and the United Kingdom), and then have those chemical weapons unleashed on them.
Why has Iran, then, incurred such wrath from the American military-industrial complex establishment?
The regime’s Sturm und Drang regarding Iran – and, for that matter, any state that even intimates that it will conduct trade in oil without the dollar, cf. Russia – is all about the petrodollar system.
Let’s define it with some historical context: When Richard Nixon removed the dollar from its peg to gold in 1971, chaos followed. It was not just the Yom Kippur War (1973) and resultant OPEC embargo that led oil prices to skyrocket in the United States. The dollar, as the new, floating, purely fiat global reserve currency had lost its allure when compared to other sovereign currencies and precious metals.
It – incredibly – gets worse. King Faisal accepted the arrangement (one that was sure to make his desert-oil kleptocracy a major regional power and global player) on one condition: The rest of the world could not know the extent of the agreement. That is to say that Faisal knew that in the rest of the Islamic world, underwriting America’s drunken-sailor imperial spending, well, that would not play in Cairo, Damascus, and Kuala Lumpur.
Different parties. Different men. Different pronouncements. Different promises. But, the one thing they all have in common: They all bow low before the Saudis—one of them, literally!
The truth is that both American foreign policy and to a very large extent, American domestic policy, are both wrapped up in the petrodollar arrangement. For the past fifty years, the national government has attempted to do what a president not pictured above—Lyndon Baines Johnson—wanted to do in Vietnam; namely, apply the New Deal to Southeast Asia.
The subsequent regimes have doubled down on the insanity—they aspire to maintain American economic, imperial hegemony over the rest of the world while simultaneously engaging in domestic spending to infinity and beyond. Thus, the petrodollar system is the most grandiose of all monetary and money laundering schemes. The Fed and US Treasury create fiat out of thin air, the Saudis provide a semblance of supportive valuation for it, and then the Saudis conceal their ill-begotten gains by buying Treasuries and cleaning their dollars through ostensibly legitimate concerns.
From that point on, the writing (about Babylon this time) was on the walls of the state in DC. Just months after US forces invaded Iraq, in June 2003, Iraqi oil sales were converted back to petrodollars, which, owing to the euro’s strength against the dollar at the time, cost Iraqis a net 13 percent on their oil revenues and invalidated previously approved contracts with other nations.
Kish is a much greater offense to Washington than anything Saddam Hussein was able to accomplish. There, Iranian oil is bought and sold using euros, yuan, and (get ready for it) rubles. The Iranians have their own oil “marker” or means of certifying the purity and quality of the oil. Turns out, while the Biden administration and greater “liberal” Europe have expressed their collective outrage by spending other citizens’ money to support an oligarchy in Ukraine and have concurrently cut off those evil, boorish Russians with sanctions; business is brisk in Kish and Tehran. Volumes have increased on the export and import side.
Over just a four-month period, they went up 4 percent and a whopping 32 percent respectively. The Iranian consumer is holding up in spite of those onerous sanctions. Meanwhile, China has increased its purchase of Iranian oil. At present, 13 percent of China’s oil originates in Iran.
A German economist has filed a lawsuit against OPEC with a Berlin court.
Despite the paltry sum, the suit could end up costing OPEC more than it can afford.
The judge in a regional court in Berlin allowed the case to proceed and has ordered OPEC and several state-controlled oil firms to file a document naming their lawyers for the case.
A German economist has filed a lawsuit against OPEC with a Berlin court, accusing the cartel of pushing up the prices of the gasoline and heating oil he is buying, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas reports—and despite the paltry sum, the suit could end up costing OPEC more than it can afford.
Armin Steinbach, Professor of law and economics, is suing OPEC for damages for $50 (50 euros), plus interest, alleging that OPEC is an illegal cartel operating to drive up oil prices. The court has allowed the case, which is a rare legal challenge against OPEC, despite decades of one-and-off debates in the United States about a bill that would allow lawsuits against OPEC producers.
The judge in a regional court in Berlin allowed the case to proceed and has ordered OPEC and several state-controlled oil firms to file a document naming their lawyers for the case.
“I hope OPEC reacts soon to the court order. Ignoring court orders is not smart strategy in dealing with German courts,” the German plaintiff, Steinbach, tweeted on Monday.
In his claim, Steinbach had written that he was seeking damages “due to violation of antitrust law.”
“If my lawsuit is successful, it would be recognized for the first time in court that OPEC is a cartel,” Steinbach told German business daily Handelsblatt last week.
“Then every German could sue OPEC for damages,” he added.
Such a precedent could have legal consequences, although countries, including the U.S., have been wary of removing the sovereign immunity for countries to be sued, for fear of retaliatory lawsuits.
In the United States, the Senate Judiciary Committee moved last month the bill that would allow the U.S. to sue OPEC for antitrust behavior and market manipulation to the Senate. The so-called No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels (NOPEC) Act proposes to amend the Sherman Act to make oil-producing and exporting cartels illegal. NOPEC has been an on-and-off topic for U.S. lawmakers and Administrations for over two decades but has never moved past discussions at committees in Congress. Forms of antitrust legislation aimed at OPEC were discussed at various times under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, but they both threatened to veto such legislation.
While the NOPEC bill may be dead in the water again, a private citizen’s lawsuit against OPEC could set precedents for more court actions against the organization.
end
8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM
Euro/USA 0.9995 DOWN 0.0025 /EUROPE BOURSES // MOSTLY GREEN (EXCEPT LONDON FTSE)
USA/ YEN 146.42 DOWN 0.218 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//
GBP/USA 1.1451 DOWN 0.0061
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 13.32 PTS OR 0.43%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 39.60 POINTS OR 0.23%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.29% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN (EXCEPT LONDON)
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 39.60 PTS OR 0.23%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 39.60 PTS OR 0.23%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.29%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 334.47 OR 1.25%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1672.10
silver:$20.74
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 110.27 UP 0 .27 POINTS from MONDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN) AT 7.2493
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 7.2209
TURKISH LIRA: 18.60 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.245
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 IN basis points from MONDAY at 4.142% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.267 DOWN 5 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 109.31 DOWN 0.69 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 31.80 PTS OR 0.45%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 74.80POINTS OR 0.55%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 1.67 PTS OR 0.03%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 14.50 OR 0.18%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 213,74 PTS OR 0.92%
WTI Oil price 90.80 12: EST
Brent Oil: 96.98 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 60.99UP 0 AND 31/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.245
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.574
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0079 UP .0062 OR 62 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.1540 UP .0027 or 27 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.576%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 145.55 DOWN 1.083//YEN UP 108 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3422 down 0.0070 (CDN dollar, up 70 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 89,24
Brent OIL: 95.58
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS pts to 4.138%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS PTS to 4.273%
USA dollar index:109.48 DOWN .52 POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.55
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 60.99 UP 0 AND 8/100 ROUBLES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 333.83 PTS OR 1.02 %
Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine; Gridlock in Washington; Easing COVID restrictions in China… that was a lot of hope to support the early ramp in stocks… but a flury of tweets and headlines from the crypto cagematch between CZ and SBF sparked a bloodbath in bitcoin, altcoins, and everything in the cryptosphere as systemic liquidity fears then spread to stocks.
FTX Token (FTT) briefly bounced but then was crushed as it appeared FTX was being forced to liquidate whatever it had to cover its clients withdrawal needs…
Bitcoin plunged most since June, rallying up to pre-FTX plunge levels and then puking hard down to almost a $16k handle…
Source: Bloomberg
…crashing below 2022 lows to Nov 2020 lows…
Source: Bloomberg
And liquidity needs appeared to spread to stocks, which all puked along with crypto. But as crypto bounced so did stocks, because ‘FOMO’… and all that hope we mentioned above. Some selling into the close…
The bounce in the S&P 500 hit as it found support at its 50DMA…
VIX opened higher again, then was pushed lower all day until the brown stuff hit the rotating object in FTX and VIX surged above 26…
The Dollar index tumbled to 7-week lows today (before a small bounce as equities and crypto puked)…
Source: Bloomberg
…as Dollar bulls monetize longs (almost back to neutrally positioned now)…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the biggest 3-day dive in the USD Index since March 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
As Nomura’s Charlie McElligott noted earlier, it’s been the dollar’s demise that has been driving this bounce in stocks…
For what it’s worth, this violent “Weak Dollar” trade from rush to monetize USD-Longs is not just creating a MASSIVE “impulse easing” in financial conditions… but specifically for US Equities as per Quant Insight, “USD Liquidity” screens as the #1 largest “POSITIVE price-driving” macro factor variable for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 models… and the 2nd largest positive price driver for the Nasdaq…
And as the dollar dived, gold spiked up to $1720, 5-week highs…
Oil prices plunged along with cryptos (WTI -3% after stalling at $92 October high stops)…
Bonds were bid on the day, with the belly outperforming (7Y -10bps, 2Y & 30Y -5bps). On the week, the belly is now lower in yield while 2Y and 30Y are marginally higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, away from all the crypto-driven excitement, the market’s expectations for Fed rate trajectories shifted significantly more dovish today…
Source: Bloomberg
We wonder how much that will change on Thursday morning when CPI prints.
No FedSpeak but perhaps election expectations are dragging hawkish expectations of The Fed’s actions lower (gridlock means less spending means lower inflation means less hakwish Fed?) with terminal rate expectations falling and subsequent rate cut expectations rising…
The reaction across asset-classes (to this and perhaps hopes for a gridlock’d Washington) has sparked buying in stocks, bonds, and gold, as the dollar sinks…
The Dow has soared back above post-FOMC-statement spike highs…
Bonds are also bid with 10Y Yields down 7bps on the day despite a heavy calendar…
Gold is soaring (back above $1700) at 4-week highs…
The dollar (and crypto) are down with the greenback at its weakest in 7 weeks…
We wonder how all this will change after Thursday’s CPI print?
.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.
Mass layoffs continue: this time Citi fires dozens of investment bankers
(zerohedge)
Mass Layoffs Come To Wall Street: Citi Fires “Dozens” Of Investment Bankers
TUESDAY, NOV 08, 2022 – 12:40 PM
With tech companies “unexpectedly” firing thousands of highly-paid, woke millennials as the US economy crumbles into the worst recession since Lehman…
… the mass layoff wave has finally come to the even-better paid Wall Street where, as Bloomberg reports, Citigroup is the first bank to eliminate dozens of jobs across its investment banking division this week.
The cuts impacted staffers globally within the investment-banking group, which includes its capital-markets arms, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.
The reason for the mass layoffs is that investment-banking fees at Citigroup, led by CEO Jane Fraser, plummeted 64% in the third quarter.
However, since Citi is hardly unique with the ibanking pipeline clogged across Wall Street due to the earnings and economic recession, with Q3 investment-banking fees plunging more than 50% to $6.4 billion, the worst third-quarter performance since 2012, Citigroup may be the first major bank to layoff “dozens” but it won’t be the last and in the coming days and weeks we expect many similar mass layoff announcement from virtually all other banks.
END
end
III B USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS////INFLATION WATCH
SWAMP STORIES
My goodness, it is happening again: voter integrity is gone!!
(zerohedge)
“Protest, Protest, Protest!” Trump Calls For Action Over ‘Complete Voter Integrity Disaster’ At Polls
TUESDAY, NOV 08, 2022 – 03:35 PM
Update (1535ET): Former President Trumphas called for protests over voting irregularities across the country.
“The Absentee Ballot situation in Detroit is REALLY BAD. People are showing up to Vote only to be told, “sorry, you have already voted,” Trump wrote on Truth social. “This is happening in large numbers, elsewhere as well. Protest, Protest, Protest!“
Trump also said that “Maricopa County in Arizona looks like a complete Voter Integrity DISASTER,” adding “Likewise Detroit (of course!), Pennsylvania, and other places. Not being covered by the Fake News Media!”
Trump also addressed the 20% of precincts in Maricopa County, AZ which have had major issues, ‘Truthing’: “Only Republican areas? WOW! Kari Lake, Blake Masters, and all others are being greatly harmed by this disaster. Can’t let this happen, AGAIN!!!”
“We’ve had a few tabulator issues at a couple locations where the tabulator isn’t immediately taking the ballot,” said County Recorder Stephen Richer after being asked about two locations with issues. “Instead it can either be Central count tabulated here, or if that issue can be addressed there, then it can be fed into the tabulator…“
Meanwhile, every single Dominion voting machine is down across Mercer County, New Jersey, according to officials.
In a Tuesday morning notice, West Windsor Township informed residents that “Due to a Mercer County-wide system outage, all voting machines are currently down in each district across the County.
“The Board of Elections has advised the county of issues with voting machines. Poll workers will be on hand to walk voters through the process. The board is working with Dominion, the machine maker, to resolve the issue,” reads a notice posted on Facebook, ABC6reports.
In response, the New Jersey Republican State Committee (NJGOP) says they’re aware of the issue, and that voters can still cast their ballots on paper.
“On behalf of our NJGOP legal counsel and election integrity team, I want to make crystal clear to the voters of Mercer County that in spite of reported problems with scanners on voting machines in Mercer County, this issue does not affect their voting experience at all. Voters will still enter their polling place, cast their vote, and insert the paper ballot into the machine as they normally would.”
Voters can be completely rest assured that NJGOP is ensuring voters’ rights are protected at all phases of the process and that their vote counts -Tom Szymanski, Executive Director NJGOP
For further updates, check back.\
end
KING REPORT
MONDAY’S REPORT
The King Report November 7, 2022 Issue 6981
Independent View of the News
The BLS crafted a better-than-expected October NFP (261k, 195k) by boosting the seasonal adjustment.
For October 2021, 149.310m jobs (NSA) were adjusted to 148.005m jobs. -1.305m was the adjustment.
For October 2022, 154.369m jobs (NSA) were adjusted to 153.308m jobs, a season adjustment this year of -1.061m. The BLS once again boosted the seasonal adjustment; this time by 244k! Of the 261k NFP created in October 2022, 244k were crafted out of thin air via a change in the seasonal adjustment.
Even Bloomberg noted the Birth/Death boost: How a ‘Birth-Death Model’ Flattered the October US Payroll Gain… adding 455,000 jobs to the non-adjusted payrolls figure…
The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose to 3.7% because “the number of unemployed persons rose by 306,000 to 6.1 million” and ‘Employed’ declined 328k. The Labor Force Participation Rate fell 0.1 to 62.2%; the Employment-Population Ratio fell 0.1 to 60.0%; Not in the Labor Force jumped 201k.
The BLS (Household Survey): The labor force participation rate… and the employment-population ratio… have shown little net change since early this year. These measures are 1.2 percentage points below their values in February 2020, prior to the… pandemic… https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
The BLS (CES): Health care +53,000… Professional and technical services +43,000 … Manufacturing +32,000 … social assistance +19,000… Wholesale trade +15,000 … leisure and hospitality +35,000… average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $32.58…the average workweek… +34.5 hour…August was revised down by 23,000, from +315,000 to +292,000, and the change for September was revised up by 52,000, from +263,000 to +315,000…
For the second time in a week, rumors that China would ease lockdowns – even after Apple’s largest factory was shut – ignited a manic rally for Chinese stocks. Notable Chinese tech stocks soared by double digits. This induced the usual suspects to pour into ESZs and stocks.
China Stock Frenzy Enters Overdrive on Hopes That Worst Is OverHang Seng China Enterprises Index jumps 9% this weekBulls get a lifeline as tech audit, reopening bets fuel rallyA flurry of market-friendly headlines — along with unverified talk that China is poised to exit its strict Covid Zero policy — drove the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index to its best weekly gain since 2015. Led by tech names, the gauge soared as much as 8.8% on Friday, as Bloomberg News reported progress in efforts to prevent the delisting of hundreds of Chinese stocks from US bourses… https://www.yahoo.com/now/china-stock-frenzy-enters-overdrive-070615023.html
U.S. stocks charged higher Friday morning as traders assessed monthly employment figures and weighed talks that China may ease COVID restrictions. https://t.co/tLaFtlqv51
Barron’s: Investors are hoping that China’s harsh zero-Covid restrictions may be lifted—which strategists see as necessary for Chinese stocks to make at least a tactical recovery.https://t.co/6FQIefa1V8
ESZs traded flat, in negative territory, during early Asian trading. They went positive during the final hour of Nikkei trading. A rally into the European open ended when Europe opened. After bottoming near 4 ET, ESZs and European stocks began a rally that ended shortly after the US repo market open (7 ET).
ESZs tumbled two minutes before the October Employment Report was released, hitting a daily low of 3711.00. Someone always get nonpublic info and trades on it. ESZs then rebounded but vacillated wickedly in a large range until they broke higher at 8 ET on the rally for the NYSE open. ESZs and stocks tumbled when the NYSE opened. ESZs sank 48 handles from the opening peak by 9:48 ET. Someone then jammed ESZs to the daily high of 3805.50. Who would do such reckless buying? Only someone that was determined to force ESZs and stocks higher.
Alas, there were few organic buyers in the market. So, after the manipulation, sellers reappeared; ESZs tumbled to 3716.50 by noon ET. After a 30-handle ESZ rebound, ESZs sank anew. However, the afternoon rally that tends to appear on Friday (as we warned in Friday’s missive) appeared. After the 14:15 VIX Fix, ESZ zoomed higher. The standard Friday afternoon rally pushed ESZs to a peak of 3785.25 near the close.
USZ declined sharply when Asia opened and then traded sideways until they went hyperkinetic around and after the US October Employment Report was released. Trading higher ala ESZs, USZs peaked (120 9/32) at 10:34 ET. Then they sank to 119 5/32 at 12:47 ET. After a modest rally, USZs went inert in the afternoon– a pattern, as we have noted, that has been recurring.
The dollar got pummeled on Friday while gold and commodities soared on China reopening hope & hype. The dollar index suffered its largest one-day decline since December 3, 2015.
BTW, a China reopening will likely force the Fed to hike rates higher than currently expected.
Fed’s Collins Says Premature to Judge How High Rates Need to Go Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins said monetary policy is entering a new phase that could require smaller rate increases while officials figure out how high rates need to go to crush inflation, but she did not rule out another 75 basis-point increase… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-collins-says-premature-judge-140000605.html
Fed’s Collins Says Rates May Need to Go Higher Than She Expected in September – BBG
@BloombergTV: Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins said monetary policy is entering a new phase that could require smaller rate increases while officials figure out how high rates need to go to crush inflation. (Precisely what Powell told the masses on Wednesday.) https://trib.al/gbEanPz
@NickTimiraos: House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters (D., Calif.) asks Jay Powell to slow down interest rate rises. “Enough is enough.”https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/
‘The big one is coming’: US military nuclear commander warns America is falling behind China, is ‘going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested in a long time’ – and that Ukraine is ‘just the warmup – He said not enough was being done to counter Chinese aggression, saying: ‘As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking’ … https://t.co/3yWD45rFFH
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied on China reopening hope & hype
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds sank while gold and commodities soared on China reopening hope & hype
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How long will the China reopening hope & hype last?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3742.50 Previous session High/Low: 3796.34; 3708.84
The White House is planning a post-midterms push for antitrust legislation that would rein in the power of the world’s largest tech companieshttps://t.co/nw1apXWWzT
@elonmusk: Twitter has had a massive drop in revenue, due to activist groups pressuring advertisers, even though nothing has changed with content moderation and we did everything we could to appease the activists. Extremely messed up! They’re trying to destroy free speech in America… A thermonuclear name & shame is exactly what will happen if this continues.
Twitter advertiser boycott organized by dark money Soros, Clinton, and foreign networks An advocacy group formed in 2020 called Accountable Tech is organizing the pressure campaign, which has thus far succeeded in having the likes of Pfizer, Audi, General Mills, and other corporations pull their advertising expenditures from the platform… https://dossier.substack.com/p/twitter-advertiser-boycott-organized
GOP Sen @tedcruz: The Fortune 100 have become the economic enforcers for the radical Left. The Dems support censorship & Big Business is in bed with them trying to silence Americans.
GOP Sen @TomCottonAR: It’s no surprise left-wing activists want to censor conservatives. But major corporate advertisers ought to think twice before entering the political arena.
Biden (A most prolificate liar) says Twitter spews lies across the world Biden said at a fundraiser: “And now what are we all worried about: Elon Musk goes out and buys an outfit that sends – that spews lies all across the world… There’re no editors anymore in America. There’re no editors. How do we expect kids to be able to understand what is at stake?” https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-twitter-spews-lies-across-world-2022-11-05/
@micsolana: wild how twitter confirmed there’s an actual organized information op spreading racial slurs, with the clear target of tanking ad rev — all of which has been amplified by domestic state propagandists — and nobody is interested in figuring out who is behind the op
Bloomberg @business: Will Twitter be able to monitor the US midterms with half the staff?
When was Twitter granted the right to ‘monitor’ US elections? The palpable fear that the left won’t control all social media is forcing leftists to reveal their true intentions.
@JonathanTurley: The President was in full censor-in-chief mode this week, referring to censors as “editors.” He asked without such censorship, “How do people know the truth?” The President added “the ability of newspapers to have much impact is de minimis.” That last statement seemed to lament the loss of a close and active ally for the Democrats. Neutrality is anathema if you have largely been able to control political and social exchanges on social media… Former President Barack Obama… started by declaring himself “pretty close to a First Amendment absolutist.” He then called for the censorship of anything he considered “disinformation,” including “lies, conspiracy theories, junk science, quackery, racist tracts and misogynist screeds.”… https://jonathanturley.org/2022/11/05/de-madness-biden-unleashes-tirade-over-musk-restoring-free-speech-protections-on-twitter/
Celebrity chef Bobby Flay warns ‘bad economy’ on horizon, cites ‘every-night focus group’ of restaurants – the rising costs of operating his restaurants and the behavior of guests are indicators of an economic downturn. He claimed he sees people tightening “their wallets.”…https://t.co/zrz9FPeB2s
Manchin demands Biden apologize for ‘outrageous’ coal comments: ‘Time he learns a lesson’ (Dem) Sen. Joe Manchin Saturday demanded President Biden apologize for saying coal plants “all across America” will be shut down, in a scathing statement just days before crucial midterm elections. “Comments like these are the reason the American people are losing trust in President Biden… It seems his positions change depending on the audience and the politics of the day. Politicizing our nation’s energy policies would only bring higher prices and more pain for the American people… Being cavalier about the loss of coal jobs for men and women in West Virginia and across the country who literally put their lives on the line to help build and power this country is offensive and disgusting. “The President owes these incredible workers an immediate and public apology and it is time he learns a lesson that his words matter and have consequences,”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/manchin-demands-biden-apologize-outrageous-coal-comments-time-he-learn-lesson
@mirandadevine: Hope West Virginians aren’t fooled by Manchin’s faux outrage. He knew what Biden was when he caved in and voted for the so-called “inflation reduction act” which was the green new deal in disguise. What’s the point now of huffing and puffing?
The Big Guy might have cost the Dems a US Senate Seat and a Governorship in Pennsylvania.
WH cleanup attempt (more lying) on Saturday: “The President’s remarks yesterday have been twisted to suggest a meaning that was not intended; he regrets it if anyone hearing these remarks took offense.”
Biden: “No one is building new coal plants because they can’t rely on it… We’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America…”
Biden Feud with Big Oil Ratchets Up Just as World Needs More US Oil “A lot of senior executives are kind of throwing in the towel with this White House… When we talk to folks inside the administration we hear things that are conciliatory toward establishing a relationship. And then you turn around and get hit between the eyes with a tweet.”… https://news.yahoo.com/biden-feud-big-oil-ratchets-123000887.html
Buffett’s Berkshire loses ($2.69B) … as stocks, Hurricane Ian offset rising demandhttp://reut.rs/3UcnGBk
@JackFarley96: Berkshire Hathaway has made $2.4 Billion dollars this year by marking down its yen- and euro-denominated debt. It is good to owe money in a weakening currency € ¥ !https://t.co/ErFut8AkDq
@CathyYuanZhang Nov 5: China still faces complex and severe Covid situation, will stick with dynamic zero Covid policy, said National Health Commission at press conference on Sat. (OOPS!)
Today – The China reopening hype & hope has blown up, again; ergo, ESZs opened -41.25 last night. Stocks should be in big trouble. However, today is the penultimate chance for those that want stocks higher for the Midterms to force ESZs higher – plus it’s Monday. So, ESZs are -22.00 at 20:15 ET.
Expected economic data: Sept Consumer Credit $32.0B; Boston Fed Pres Collins and Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 15:40 ET on Women in Economics
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4528.64 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3951.16 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3705.97 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3811.23 triggers a buy signal
WXYZ Detroit Reporter @alexbozarjiantv: Wayne county GOP chair says a protestor bit her at @TudorDixon’s rally over the weekend. Detroit police are now investigating and we’ve learned the alleged attacker is a local school teacher. The full story coming up at @ 11 on @wxyzdetroit https://twitter.com/alexbozarjiantv/status/1588347545306435586
@RNCResearch: BIDEN: “I was just in Syracuse, New York…before that I was in, down in, in uh, uh in, a little further down in the middle of New York at an outfit called IBM. They’re investing in these chips for, for serious, anyway, I won’t go through them.”https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1588617106580537344
Firing of Milwaukee election official highlights Wisconsin as epicenter of election shenanigans During a press conference on Thursday, Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson announced that Kimberly Zapata, deputy director of the Milwaukee Election Commission, was fired after she requested that three absentee military ballots be sent to the home of Republican state Rep. Janel Brandtjen. Brandtjen turned the ballots in to the Waukesha County sheriff last Friday. “I believe someone was trying to point out how easy it is to get military ballots in Wisconsin,” Brandtjen said in a statement on Saturday. “Registration for military ballots is not required, so a fictitious name and birthdate is all that is required to obtain a military ballot online. Feeling shocked about this situation is an understatement because it demonstrates stolen valor from those who protect this nation. “I think it’s sad that people feel they have to break the law to get the attention of the legislature. This is now the second time citizens have tried to point out loopholes in our elections.”https://t.co/gVQZ6ZnQNw
@ClayTravis: Within three hours of the polls closing on Tuesday we will likely know who won every election in Florida. That’s because 2000 was a disaster for Florida & they fixed their elections. Honest question: why can’t every state enact the same policies for voting Florida presently has?
Democrat poll worker ejected for pre-selecting ‘straight Dem ticket’ on voting machines: reporthttps://t.co/XnM4bykDG1
@DineshDSouza: If Democrats really want to build voter confidence in elections shouldn’t they support voter ID, bipartisan observers, regular audits and 24/7 surveillance on all dropboxes—all commonsense measures to ensure that the process is fair and the votes accurately counted? #bidenspeech
@AmyJacobson: When @POTUS was in the Chicago area on Saturday campaigning with @LaurenUnderwood it was so bad that they rented out an Elementary School Gym
@KariLake Governor candidate, AZ on Hillary campaigning against her: “…when I saw Hillary Clinton bad-mouthing me. She looked angry and actually scared, and just completely unrelated, I want you to know, just in case you’re wondering, I’m in perfect health. My brakes on my car are in good shape, and I am not suicidal… That is all.”https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1588352039049797632
Democratic leaders held secret meeting to discuss Pelosi’s successor: report In a Sept. 1 meeting, Jeffries met with Majority Whip James Clyburn of South Carolina. Amid growing chatter that California Rep. Adam Schiff was interested in taking the reins of party leadership, New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries called a meeting of party leaders to discuss the matter… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/democratic-leaders-held-secret-meeting-discuss-pelosis-successor-report
@NewsBecker: Tucker Carlson: “Democracy isn’t on ballot and of course they knew that, but they really telling you the threat to democracy is voters. Democracy means supporting Joe Biden, and anything less than that is an insurrection. That’s the script they’re reading.” https://twitter.com/NewsBecker/status/1588754796676526080
Jonathan Turley: Constitutional defamation: Democrats, not democracy, are in danger this election There has been a growing crisis of faith on the left as leaders and pundits have attacked our Constitution and its institutions, including the Supreme Court. These objections appear to be based not on the Constitution failing to resist extraconstitutional demands but on it failing to yield to such demands.These figures apparently are upset that the democratic process or the Supreme Court have not given them what they demand. Thus, the Constitution or the court must go… The U.S. Constitution is not an elegant or poetic document, but it has one thing to commend it: It is designed to survive the worst of times and the worst of leaders, and it has done just that. The Democrats’ democracy-or-death mantra is not just demagoguery. It is defamation of a constitutional system that has proven itself, time and again, to be up to any challenge. Democrats indeed may be in danger in this midterm — but democracy is not. https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/3721139-constitutional-defamation-democrats-not-democracy-are-in-danger-this-election/
@EndWokeness: Joy Reid: Inflation was never part of the “normal lexicon” until Republicans “taught people the word” (Liberal privilege: saying egregiously stupid stuff without consequence or rebuke!) https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1588586215565328385
NBC News mysteriously PULLS its exclusive report on how Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul, 82, calmly opened door to cops in his underpants – and then walked TOWARDS ‘hammer intruder’ who bludgeoned himThe report claimed that Paul Pelosi did not declare an emergency or try to leave his San Francisco home when cops responded to his 911 call last weekIt claimed that Pelosi took several steps away from police and back into the foyer where he was attacked by David DePape with a hammerThe NBC source also claimed that it was unclear if Pelosi was already injured or what his mental state was when he took steps back into the homeThe report differed from the court documents filed earlier this week based on the San Francisco Police Department reportPaul Pelosi, who was the only one home when DePape broke in, called the police who arrived two minutes later to find struggling over a hammer, according to a Department of Justice press release. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11390497/Paul-Pelosi-answered-door-cops-did-NOT-say-distress-new-police-account-claims.html
NBC silent after retracting Paul Pelosi report under mysterious circumstances NBC News national correspondent Miguel Almaguer went viral for stunning revelations of what apparently transpired when police arrived to Pelosi’s San Francisco home. “After a ‘knock and announce,’ the front door was opened by Mr. Pelosi. The 82-year-old did not immediately declare an emergency or tried to leave his home but instead began walking several feet back into the foyer toward the assailant and away from police…” “According to court documents, when the officer asked what was going on, defendant smiled and said ‘everything’s good’ but instantaneously a struggle ensued as police clearly saw David DePape strike Paul Pelosi in the head with a hammer. After tackling the suspect, officers rushed to Mr. Pelosi who was lying in a pool of blood,” Almaguer continued. Almaguer concluded his report by telling “Today” co-host Craig Melvin “we still don’t know exactly what unfolded between Mr. Pelosi and the suspect for the 30 minutes they were alone inside that housebefore police arrive. Officials who are investigating this matter would not go into further details about these new details.”… NBC News issued an editor’s note on its website, reading “This piece has been removed from publication because it did not meet NBC News reporting standards.”… https://www.foxnews.com/media/nbc-silent-after-retracting-paul-pelosi-report-under-mysterious-circumstances
Here’s Why NBC News Deleted a Report on the Paul Pelosi Attack Those details reported by NBC News appear to directly contradict the sworn affidavit by FBI Special Agent Stephanie Minor…Toward the end of his report, Almaguer pointed to the obvious question: “Why Pelosi didn’t try to flee or tell responding officers he was in distress is unclear.”… Mainstream outlets reporting new information, then quickly and quietly trying to pretend they didn’t report it, does not do much to help assuage those who think there’s more to the story than is being explained… Authorities still say they will not release body-worn camera footage from the responding officers — which would quickly clear up the disparity between what Almaguer reported and what the FBI affidavit stated — nor the 911 call Pelosi placed. The U.S. Capitol Police have also said they are not planning to release footage their cameras recorded the night of the break-in. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/spencerbrown/2022/11/04/today-show-report-on-paul-pelosi-deleted-n2615497
@AmFirebrand: Tucker on NBC scrubbing Paul Pelosi report: “They are obedient little throne-sniffing servants to the party in power. Predictably, NBC News refused to tell us what was wrong with their own story but we already knew what was wrong with it. Nancy Pelosi didn’t like it.” https://twitter.com/AmFirebrand/status/1588688854332362753
Regime media actions heighten suspicions about the Paul Pelosi attack narratives.
On Saturday night, just a few days before the Midterms, Trump took a gratuitous shot at DeSantis. The jibe shows how petty, insecure, and self-absorbed DJT is.
Conservatives turn on Trump for attacking Ron DeSantis ahead of midterms: ‘What an idiot’ “nice job launching your public attack against the most popular conservative governor in America three days before the midterms when we’re all supposed to be showing a united front,”…https://t.co/giJFbJJqTF
Due to widespread rebuke for slamming DeSantis, Trump praised DeSantis on Sunday.
“The person who is trustworthy in very small matters is also trustworthy in great ones; and the person who is dishonest in very small matters is also dishonest in great ones.” – Luke 16:9-15
GALLUP POLL: Do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent? (with Indie leaners) Republican — 48% (R+6), Democrat — 42%, Indies no lean — 10%https://t.co/IOe3jiubeU
As of October, Gallup shows US voters as +6% Republican – yet regime media pollsters keep posting polls with samples that have Dems +1 to +8%!!!
@todayyearsoldig: On Tuesday, the Earth, sun and moon will align to create a Blood Moon eclipse. It will be the last total l
TUESDAY The King Report November 8, 2022 Issue 6882Independent View of the NewsSenior White House Official Involved in Undisclosed Talks with Top Putin Aides – WSJ President Biden’s top national-security adviser has engaged in recent months in confidential conversations with top aides to Russian President Vladimir Putin in an effort to reduce the risk of a broader conflict over Ukraine and warn Moscow against using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, U.S. and allied officials said. The officials said that U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan has been in contact with Yuri Ushakov, a foreign-policy adviser to Mr. Putin. Mr. Sullivan also has spoken with his direct counterpart in the Russian government, Nikolai Patrushev, the officials added. The aim has been to guard against the risk of escalation and keep communications channels open, and not to discuss a settlement of the war in Ukraine, the officials said… https://t.co/223elcJYY7
The WSJ story follows a WaPo story over the weekend that stated Team Biden is pressuring Zelensky to negotiate with Russian officials.
US (Team Biden) Quietly Asks Banks to Keep Some Ties with Russia, Even as Congress BalksTreasury, State prod JPMorgan, Citi to bank some Russian firmsCongress lambasted banks for continuing to do work in country Behind the scenes, the Treasury and State Departments are urging banking giants including JPMorgan and Citigroup to keep doing business with some Russian firms…https://t.co/fRiRb06HGM
Despite the obliteration of the Fed Pivot and the China will open hope & hype, stocks rallied on Monday. Street pundits believe stocks should rally into the Midterms. Another delusion has developed: GOP control of Congress will produce lower interest rates and stocks will rally.
Wall Street Agrees: A Red Wave in The Midterms Will Push Stocks Higher According to (Morgan Stanley) Wilson, a “clean sweep” by the Republicans could greatly increase the chance of fiscal spending being frozen and historically high budget deficits being reduced, fueling a rally in 10-year Treasuries that can keep the equity market rising… (Sorry Mike, that would produce a severe recession!) https://www.zerohedge.com/political/wall-street-agrees-red-wave-midterms-will-push-stocks-higher
Futures Reverse Sharp Early Losses to Trade Near Session Highs Ahead of Midterms Morgan Stanley’s in house permabear Mike Wilson turned even more bullish on Monday saying investors should stay bullish on equities ahead of the midterms. Polls pointing to Republicans winning at least one chamber of Congress provide a potential catalyst for lower bond yields and higher equity prices, which would be enough to keep the bear-market rally going, they said. Meanwhile, the permabulls at JPMorgan said the same thing they have said since Jan 1 – buy the dip because a potential peak in bond yields and “very downbeat” sentiment may support stocks… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-reverse-sharp-early-losses-trade-near-session-highs-ahead-midterms
At best, Congress will pass pro-growth legislation (tax cuts, cut regulations, spur energy production, etc.) and Biden will veto it. This will then pressure Democratic Senators that are up for election in the challenging, for Dems, 2024. They must either side with Biden or vote with the GOP to override Biden.
Perhaps stocks rallied on hope for a Ukraine-Russia peace pact.
ESZs opened on the daily low (3738.25) after Chinese officials and Apple destroyed the China is about to open narrative. They rallied steadily until they inched into positive territory at 00:38 ET. They then sank into the European open. ESZs surge 31 handles in 34 minutes on incontinent trader buying. ESZs and stocks then methodically rallied until they hit a daily high of 3805.00 at 6:36 ET.
ESZs and stocks then slid as bond yields jumped higher. ESZs and stocks formed about 30 minutes after the NYSE open. After a vertical rally on dip-buying traders, ESZs and stocks rolled over into range trading until ESZs spiked higher near 14:00 ET. The rally peaked 34 minutes later. ESZs and stocks then rolled over. When the final hour arrived, another upward manipulation appeared. It ended at 15:34 ET.
USZs peaked at 120.00 at 7:35 ET; they slid to a daily low of 118 6/32 at 11:47 ET. After a modest rally, USZs rolled over into a steady decline that took the bond futures to a new low of 118 12/32 at 15:57 ET.
A rationale to buy stocks on Monday was a GOP Red Wave could be good for bonds. However, bonds sank on Monday. But equity traders always get it last and are always easy to euchre.
Billions in Capital Calls Threaten to Wreak Havoc on Global Stocks, BondsCapital calls outweigh distributions for private markets fundsCash-strapped investors forced to consider stock, bond salesThe private market is coming to collect — and it threatens to wreak havoc across global stocks and bonds. As financial conditions tighten around the world, private-market funds are demanding that investors stump up more of the cashthey pledged during better times. The fear is that a large number of investors will have to offload liquid assets to meet those obligations, spurring bigger public-market losses…https://t.co/ksgTiMpOks
Sky-High Electricity Is Biden’s New Pain Point Before Elections US consumers are increasingly struggling to pay utility bills Electricity costs are already a key topic around kitchen tables, with one in six households falling behind on payments as budgets are stretched thin by rising prices for everything from food to housing. And on the cusp of elections that will decide which party controls the House and Senate, soaring utility bills are also emerging as a potent threat to the Biden administration and the transition to cleaner energy… https://finance.yahoo.com/finance/news/sky-high-electricity-biden-pain-130007688.html
Warning: None of the “Jobs” Created Last Month Were Real As Bill King notes in the King Report, the BLS tweaked its seasonal adjustments in 2022 to boost the NFP numbers. In 2021, for the month of October, the BLS reduced the total number of jobs in America from 149.31 million jobs down to 148.005 million jobs, an adjustment of -1.305 million. For some reason, this year (2022) the BLS only adjusted the total number of jobs by -1.061 million. That’s a difference of +244,000 from the 2021 adjustment. So, right off the bat, 244,000 of the 261,000 jobs the economy “created” in October of 2022 were imaginary, created via a seasonal adjustment in a spreadsheet by the BLS. For those of you keeping track this means that over 93% of the jobs created in October 2022 were fake or made up… In 2021, the Birth-Death model added 363,000 jobs in October. In 2022, this same model added 455,000 jobs. That’s a difference of 92,000 jobs. So, there’s another 92,000 FAKE jobs created in a spreadsheet instead of in the economy… https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-11-07/warning-none-jobs-created-last-month-were-real
Some economists are warning that December NFP will be -250k or more. Why? The BLS, as we have highlighted the past several months, has been crafting higher-than-warranted NFP by boosting the seasonal adjustment. At yearend, NFP NSA should equal NFP SA. Ergo, hundreds of thousands of NFP must be deleted from NFP Seasonally Adjusted to get reasonably near NFP Not Seasonally Adjusted.
@federalreserve: Q3 consumer credit up 6.8%; revolving credit up 12.9%; nonrevolving credit up 4.9%; September consumer credit up 6.4% (SAAR):https://federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/c
Positive aspects of previous session Usually Monday rally on some dubious rumor or narrative
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds sank again Too many equity traders and investors fear missing out on the next rally Fed equity traders and investors fear the stock market carnage that occurs in recessions
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the recent rally another instance of hype & hope that the GOP will magically boost economic growth?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3825.82 Previous session High/Low: 3813.95; 3764.70
Democrat Rep. (NY) Sean Patrick Maloney’s idea to combat inflation: have some Chef Boyardeehttps://trib.al/e255AZz
At least one in FIVE premature deaths are directly linked to ultra-processed foodshttps://t.co/8kbfebvYuN
Today – Reaction to the Midterm Election results will probably produce the usual over-reaction, and possibly an egregiously wrong reaction like when Trump won and ESZs crashed initially. Stocks soared when Reagan won in November 1980, then commenced a severe bear market in 1981.
It’s crystal clear from the equity markets’ irrational exuberance to the dubious narratives that have appeared that a critical mass of traders is desperately seeking any piece of info or any rumor to justify their bullish urges. This is NOT how markets bottom! ESZs are +6.00 at 20:05 ET.
Expected economic data: Oct NFIB Small Business Outlook 91.3; DD .79, OXY 2.49, DIS .51
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4528.64 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3951.16 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3705.97 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3811.23 triggers a buy signal
Daily Mail EXCLUSIVE: ‘Joe was centered on the returns in the family coffers.’ Whistleblower claims Hunter and then-VP Biden were part of a group call to discuss online gambling venture in Latin America – the president talking like he was chairman of the boardhttps://t.co/8pwmrTKJC0
Washington Post fact-check blasts Biden with ‘Bottomless Pinocchio’ rating The statement in question is Biden’s oft-repeated claim that he has spent “more time with [Chinese President] Xi Jinping than any other head of state,”…https://trib.al/MWAJTeY
@JackPosobiec: Fetterman campaign issues memo warning of a ‘long week’ for a ‘process that takes several days’ before results are in – lashes out at Mastriano, Tucker, Trump, Cruz (Is the rig on again?) https://t.co/1cNETmhhqv
@townhallcom: (WH Press Sec) KJP: “We may not know all the winners of elections for a few days. It takes time to count all legitimate ballots in a legal and orderly manner. That’s how this is supposed to work, and it’s important for us to all be patient…” (Preparing the masses for the rig? ‘It doesn’t matter who votes; what matters is who counts the votes!”) https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1589702051290050561
Ex-NYPD and ex-radio host @johncardillo: When vote counting stops at 9 PM, shades are drawn, doors are locked, and mysterious boxes are unloaded and walked into where votes are being counted you are not a conspiracy theorist for questioning the integrity of that election. It’s your duty as an American.
Left-leaning @politico) tweeted at 4:40 AM on Mon, Nov 07, 2022: The 2020 presidential election was rife with allegations of voting machine hacks that were later debunked. Yet there are real risks that hackers could tunnel into voting equipment and other election infrastructure to try to undermine Tuesday’s vote. (How can any adult not see the hypocrisy in these side-by-side assertions?)
If Dems want to push the US cold civil war into something hotter, fool with the 2022 vote like in 2020! Democratic senator’s wife counsels ‘strategic ways’ to ‘quietly’ defund police without backlash Susan Daggett, wife of Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, who is locked in a tight battle for reelection, said, “Michael would say calling it ‘defund the police’ is not the smartest move at the outset.” https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/mon-democratic-senators-wife-discusses-how-quietly-defund-police-hopes
The Reuters/Ipsos poll from October 25, greatly overstates Biden’ approval rating. Gallup shows Americans are +6% GOP. Reuters polled 447/1k Dems (44.7%) & 369/1k (36.9%) Republicans. Reuters unfathomably and deceitfully has a Dem +7.8% poll – a 13.8 percentage points oversampling of Dems!
@elonmusk Replying to @kylegrantham: You represent the problem: journalists who think they are the only source of legitimate information. That’s the big lie.
Reports say California Officials are preventing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) from interviewing reputed Paul Pelosi Attacker David DePape. Why?
Rumors say there is a 50-50 chance that Trump announces his 2024 candidacy tonight. This is disqualifying behavior. It yields NO benefit to the GOP; it’s probably a minor negative. It is nothing but a self-stroking of Trump’s massive ego. And if the Red Wave fails to appear, Trump is finished! Perhaps the Bad Orangeman is looking to a way to exit politics without be tagged as a ‘quitter’ – and he can keep grifting donors for another year or so!
There is only one reason for Trump’s popularity. Tucker Carlson articulated in 2020. Many Americans perceive Trump to be the firewall that save them from the radical left and the Establishment. If DeSantis can appropriate this aura from Trump, DeSantis should be the president election in 2024.
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[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
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