NOV 16: THE REPORT FOR TODAY WILL BE A WORK IN PROGRESS, PUBLISHED SO FAR AT 12:00 NOON EST//COMEX DATA IS COMPLETE SAVE FOR INVENTORY MOVEMENTS//MORNING DATA IS COMPLETE//BIG STORIES: ISRAELI TANKER HIT BY IRANIAN DRONE CAUSES OIL TO RISE//MORE FALLOUT FROM FTX SCANDAL: PLEASE LISTEN TO BIX WEIR INTERVIEWED BY GREG HUNTER//USA COMPANIES REPORTING AWFUL NUMBERS: TARGET AND DISNEY AND MICRON//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

NOV 16, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP  $0,15 to $1773.50

SILVER PRICE CLOSE: DOWN $0.56  to $21.65

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1778.45

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 21.58

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $16,637 DOWN 179

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $16,816 UP 562

Platinum price closing  DOWN $0.35  AT  $1027.65

Palladium price; closing UP $6.35  at $2044.05

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: 2360.41 DOLLARS UP 2.62 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ

BRITISH GOLD: 1498.22 POUNDS PER OZ DOWN 7,32 POUNDS PER OZ

EURO GOLD: 1718.17 EUROS PER OZ UP 3.57 EUROS PER OZ.

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,773.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/15/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 11/17/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 13
190 H BMO CAPITAL 1
661 C JP MORGAN 20 11
737 C ADVANTAGE 16 7
800 C MAREX SPEC 3
880 H CITIGROUP 7


TOTAL: 39 39
MONTH TO DATE: 6,281


TOTAL: 220 220
MONTH TO DATE: 6,12

JPMORGAN STOPPED  85/220

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV. CONTRACT:    39 NOTICES FOR 3900  OZ  or 0.1213 TONNES

total notices so far: 6281 contracts for 628100 oz (19.5366 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 17 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 85,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  391 :  for 1,955,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $0.15

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////TINY CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 0.29 TONNES INTO THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.56

AT THE SLV// :/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 1.286 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 470.634 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2485 CONTRACTS TO 141,623 AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS OF $0.56  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY   $0.56)., AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 858 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERING OF  THEIR SHORTFALLS  .WE HAD MINIMAL  SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS . // OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SMALL NUMBER OF NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS. 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) CONSIDERABLE  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS WITH ZERO SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SMALL NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.045 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 120,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING:2,695,000 MILLION OZ/    / //  V)   GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ 

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: –252

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 23,930 contracts: 119.650 million oz  OR 9.9708 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1994 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 119.650 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 119.650 MILLION

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED  DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2485 WITH OUR  $0.56 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1375 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.345 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 120,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP/  .. WE HAVE A  HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 858 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 4.290MILLION  OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE STILL HUGELY TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING ALL OF THOSE SHORTS WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE COMING IN TWO WEEKS.

 WE HAD 17  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  85,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 7053 CONTRACTS  TO 487,471 AND FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -7,200 CONTRACTS.???

.

THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.15//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY //  CONSIDERABLE  SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS AS WE APPROACH FIRST DAY NOTICE, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS THE ENTIRE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO SHORT SPEC COVERINGS  WITH CONTINUED ADDITIONS FROM OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS. IT SEEMS THAT EVERYBODY WISHES TO BUY BUT NO SELLERS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  3600 OZ QUEUE JUMP //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.15 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2,588 OI CONTRACTS (8.049 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

(THE COMEX LOSS WAS ALL TAKEN UP THROUGH EFP’S.  THESE WILL CIRCLE BACK TO COMEX ON EXERCISING OF DELIVERY CONTRACTS).

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4465 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 495,171

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2588 CONTRACTS  WITH 7053 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 4465 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON (AND THESE EFP’S WILL CIRCLE BACK AND EXERCISE FOR DELIVERABLE GOLD. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2588 CONTRACTS OR 8.049 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4465) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (7,053): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2,588 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS.  WE  HAD ZERO SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // SOME NEWBIE SPEC  ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 12.386 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GOOD QUEUE JUMP OF 3600 OZ //NEW STANDING 22.945 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)   GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

NOV

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :

54,026 CONTRACTS OR 5,402,600 OZ OR 168.04 TONNES 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4502EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 168.04 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  168.04/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.73% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  168.04 TONNES//INITIAL ( SO FAR MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2485 CONTRACT OI TO  141,171 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1375 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1375  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1375 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI  LOSS OF 2485  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1375  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS  OF 1110  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.55MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.56….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.10 PTS OR 0.45%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 86,64 OR  0.47%    /The Nikkei closed UP 38.13 OR 0.14%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN  0.25%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.0803 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.0813//    /Oil UP TO 86.85 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.21    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 7,053  CONTRACTS TO 495,171 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS HUGE COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SLIGHT RISE IN PRICE OF $0.15  IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (4465 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT SEEMS THAT SPEC SHORTS ARE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE COMEX SHORTFALL.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON -ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4465 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :  4465  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4465 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED  TOTAL OF 2,588  CONTRACTS IN THAT 4465 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 7,053   CONTRACTS..AND  THIS VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SLIGHT  RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $0.15//WE ARE FINALLY WITNESSING SOME SPEC SHORTS  COVERING THEIR MASSIVE SHORTFALL. TODAY THEY HAD SOME SUCCESS COVERING. BANKERS CONTINUE  AS NET BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS.  WE ALSO HAD HUGE ADDITIONAL  NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG.  IT LOOKS LIKE OUR SPEC SHORTS ARE IN DEEP TROUBLE  

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING NOV   (22.945 TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 22.945 TONNES/INITIAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 564.435 TONNES)

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $0.15) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 10,288 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD  ZERO SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AND CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS..  WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,288 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OF THE LOSS DUE TO SPEC SHORT COVERING AHEAD OF COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY NOV 22 AND NOV 30 FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE DEC CONTRACT .//    WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI  OF 32.000 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (22.945 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.15 

WE HAD -7200  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT??????

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2588 CONTRACTS OR 258800  OZ OR  8.049 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 346,777//  very good//

final gold volumes/yesterday  227,682/  fair 

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  NOVEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //NOV 16

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 140,660.630oz

Brinks
HSBC (390 kilobars)
JPMorgan
(3,000 kilobars)


 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
197.803 oz
HSBC
No of oz served (contracts) today39   notice(s)
3900  OZ
0.1213 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1096 contracts 
109,600 oz
3.4090 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month6281 notices
628,100
19.5366TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

i) Into HSBC:  197.803 oz

total deposits  197,803. oz

 customer withdrawals:3

i) Out of Brinks:  31,668.740 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  96,453.000 oz (3,000 kilobars)

iii) Out of HSBC:  12,538.890 oz (390 kilobars)

total:  140,660.630  oz

total in tonnes: 4.3749 tonnes

Adjustments: 0//  

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOVEMBER.

For the front month of NOV. We have an oi of 1135 contracts having LOST 85 contracts.   We had  121 notices served on TUESDAY so we gained  36

or an additional 3600 OZ (0.1199 TONNES) will stand in this non active month of November.  We will have Nov gold tonnage standing increase daily from this day forth until the end of the month.

This queue jumping originates in London with the exercising of London based EFP’s for comex gold.

December LOST A STRONG 28,353 contracts DOWN to 225,920 AS WE EDGE CLOSER TO FIRST DAY NOTICE..   DEC WILL BE A DILLY OF A DELIVERY MONTH.

JANUARY  LOST 1 contract to stand at 220.

February gained 20,373 contacts UP to 222,071.

We had 39 notice(s) filed today for 3900 oz 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  20  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 39 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 11 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6281) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (NOV 1135 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 39 x 100 oz per contract equals 737,700 OZ  OR 22.945 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   non active month of NOV. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV. contract month:

No of notices filed so far (6281) x 100 oz+   (1135)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (39} x 100 oz} which equals 737,700 oz standing OR 22.945  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOV..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  22.834 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING//NEW RECORD FOR NOV (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,930,287.070 OZ   60.04 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  23,971,924.047 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,142,699.707  OZ (346,58 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 12,829,224.300 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,212,412OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 286.54 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

NOV 16//INITIAL NOV. SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory610,574.949 oz
Brinks
CNT
Manfra




 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory184,973.900 oz
Delaware



 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)17  CONTRACT(S)  
 (85,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)148 contracts 
(740,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)391 contracts
 (1,955,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  3 withdrawals out of the customer account

i) Out of Brinks:  973.400 oz

ii) Out of CNT:  8712.600 oz

iii) Out of Manfra: 600,889.349 oz

Total withdrawals:   610,574.949 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 153.534million oz/296.596 million =51.77% of comex .//dropping fast

 Comex deposits: 

 adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35,322 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 296.586MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI: 165 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 7 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 17 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 24 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 120,000 OZ WILL STAND

FOR SILVER IN THIS VERY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 5581 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 63,474

 (WE WILL HAVE A DANDY DEC. DELIVERY MONTH AS THE CONTRACTION IS GOING VERY SLOWLY)

JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 59 CONTRACTS UP TO 1313 CONTACTS.

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:17 for 85,000   oz

Comex volumes:105,928// est. volume today// huge   

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 74,920 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  391 x 5,000 oz = 1,955,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(165) and the number of notices served upon today 17 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the NOV../2022 contract month: 391 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV (165)  – number of notices served upon today (17) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV. contract month equates 2,695,000 oz. 

We will gain in silver oz standing from this day forth until the end of the month.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:49,371// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 101,267 contracts ( huge)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $.05: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 29 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES

NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00:  BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD UP $34.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//: INVENTORY RESTS AT 905.49 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.95: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.96. TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $44.45 TO $1673.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROMTHE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES.

NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.

NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES

OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//

OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 910.41  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

NOV 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.56 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.286 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.634 MILLION OZ..

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//

NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//

NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//

NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.751 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.929 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.31 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.972 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//

NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ

OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.

OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/

OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///

OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//

Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 470.634 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff  .

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

14 Nov 2022

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

The author pounds the table that there is now a shift away from jumbo interest rate rises as the outlook for the world’s economies darkens

(London’s Financial Times)

Central banks to shift away from ‘jumbo’ interest rate rises as outlook darkens

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-11-15 10:36Section: Daily Dispatches

By Valentina Romei
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Central bankers are to shift toward a more gradual monetary tightening, economists predict, as recent “jumbo” rate moves show signs of taming inflation and officials acknowledge the growing threat of recession.

After central banks’ last meetings and a cooling in U.S. inflation to 7.7% in October from 8.2% in September, markets are pricing in a greater probability of 50 basis point rather than 75bp rises in the banks’ next announcements, and smaller rate rises continuing into next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England had given a “clear signal” that “we’re coming toward a period of slower tightening, mirroring what we’ve seen from Australia, Canada, and Norway,” said James Pomeroy, an economist at HSBC.  …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/117b77c6-6c28-418d-8939-c3a2bf7cd152

END

A good read..

Dan Oliver on the collapse of FTX and whtat it means.

(Dan Oliver)

Dan Oliver: Collapse of FTX portends the collapse of all the bubbles

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-11-15 13:27Section: Daily Dispatches

1:27p ET Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Mirmikan Capital’s Dan Oliver today published a brilliant review of the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, showing how it is a metaphor for all the big financial frauds that preceded it from centuries ago to the present, where even the most imaginary assets can attract and then vaporize enormous wealth.

Among Oliver’s conclusions: “In addition to general lessons, the FTX saga has more immediate implications for investors. First, it is yet another signal that the COVID bubble is collapsing and at an accelerating pace. The COVID bubble rests atop the QE bubble, which sits on the shadow banking system bubble, which relies on the banking bubble, which depends on the currency bubble.

“The questions are at what layer of bubble will the Fed make a determined defense and will it be successful?

“The second revelation of FTX is just how long it takes for wildly insolvent institutions to fail. Panics always start at the periphery. In the 19th century they would start in places like Argentina and take a whole year to reach back to London. Subprime housing exhibited the same phenomenon, taking 18 months to travel from trailer parks to Wall Street. …

“It is, perhaps, remarkable that the entire crypto universe did not collapse Monday morning. But, as the above shows, it takes time for contagion to spread.”

Oliver’s analysis is headlined “FTX Post-Mortem” and it’s posted at the Myrmikan internet site here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Vermont, New Jersey, Maine among the worst states on sound money

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-11-15 13:55Section: Daily Dispatches

From Money Metals News Service
Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Residents of Wyoming and South Dakota live in the most pro-sound money states in the United States, according to the 2023 Sound Money Index released today.

Money Metals Exchange, a national precious metals dealer, depository, and collateral lending institution, has again teamed up with the Sound Money Defense League, an influential public policy group, to produce this authoritative ranking.

While the nation faces staggering inflation rates and ongoing financial turmoil, the Sound Money Index ranks all 50 states on their policies in this area of growing relevance.

The biggest positive mover on the index this year was Tennessee, which jumped from 36th to 9th place. Meanwhile, Washington state plummeted from 7th to 34th place. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2022/11/15/wyoming-south-dakota-top-2023s-sound-money-index-002627

END

For your interest..

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Comex prices into year-end

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-11-15 20:31Section: Daily Dispatches

By Craig Hemke
Sprott Money, Toronto
Tuesday, November 15, 2022

The year 2022 hasn’t played out as expected, but as the year draws to a close, the clouds are parting and a vision for 2023 comes into focus.

What did we know about 2022 when the year began? 

Not much. In fact, as we stated in our annual macrocast —

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Reality-Bites-A-Forecast-for-Precious-Metals-in-2022-Craig-Hemke-January-11-2022

— the only thing we knew for certain about 2022 was that it would be “wildly volatile and unpredictable.” Boy, did that ever turn out to be the case.

My expectation was that the Fed would pivot by late summer and that this would lead to a strong finish to 2022 in the Comex digital metals. But I was wrong about two things in the interim. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/COMEX-Prices-Into-Year-End-November-15-2022

END

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: NICKEL

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

The fallout begins:  Genesis suspends withdrawals from the crypto lending business.  This will spiral out of control/

FTX is an exchange just like the NYSE but for crypto.  Many derivative trades were initiated through Alameda, the trading arm of FTX. The crypto coins were supposedly the collateral for these derivative trades. With those cryptos gone, so goes the derivatives.

what a mess!

(zerohedge)

Bitcoin Slides After Genesis Suspends Withdrawals From Crypto Lending Business

WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 09:20 AM

The fallout from Sam Bankman-Fried’s massive farce continues as crypto brokerage Genesis suspends withdrawals from its lending business.

On Oct 10th, Genesis trading revealed that its derivatives business had around $175 million worth of funds locked away in an FTX trading account (hit by its exposure to bankrupt crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, to which it had made a $2.4 billion loan).

On Nov 10th, Genesis trading announced that it will receive an additional equity infusion of $140 million from its parent company, Digital Currency Group. According to the company, this decision was made to “strengthen its balance sheet” and boost its “position as a global leader in crypto capital markets.”

However, it doesn’t appear to have helped stem the tide of pain amid the FTX farce as Bloomberg reports that Genesis is suspending redemptions and new loan originations at its lending business after facing what it described as “abnormal withdrawal requests.”

Chief Executive Officer Derar Islim admitted that withdrawal requests exceeded current liquidity at Genesis Global Capital, the lending arm; but made it clear that Genesis’s spot and derivatives trading and custody businesses “remain fully operational.”

Genesis also reassured its clients that it doesn’t have “an ongoing lending relationship with FTX or Alameda.”

As Bloomberg notes, Genesis is one of the oldest and most well-known cryptocurrency brokers, offering trading and custody services to professional investors in digital assets. Over the past few years it had also established itself as one of the largest cryptocurrency lenders, allowing funds or other market makers to borrow dollars or virtual currencies to leverage their trades.

The contagion of Genesis lending issues has already hit one large firm, as Gemini Trust Co., the cryptocurrency platform run by the Winklevoss brothers, has halted withdrawals from its Earn program:

We are aware that Genesis Global Capital, LLC (Genesis) – the lending partner of the Earn program – has paused withdrawals and will not be able to meet customer redemptions within the service-level agreement (SLA) of 5 business days. We are working with the Genesis team to help customers redeem their funds from the Earn program as quickly as possible. We will provide more information in the coming days.”

“The past week has been an incredibly challenging and stressful time for our industry. We are disappointed that the Earn program SLA will not be met, but we are encouraged by Genesis’ and its parent company Digital Currency Group’s commitment to doing everything in their power to fulfill their obligations to customers under the Earn program. We will continue to work with them on behalf of all Earn customers. This is our highest priority. We greatly appreciate your patience,” the statement said.

However, the Winklevi make it clear that this does not impact any other Gemini products and services, reassuring clients that Gemini is a full-reserve exchange and custodian -“all customer funds held on the Gemini exchange are held 1:1 and available for withdrawal at any time.”

Bitcoin prices slipped lower on the headlines…

END

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.0803

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0813

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.10 PTS OR  0.45%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 86,64 OR 0.47% 

2. Nikkei closedUP 38.13  PTS OR 0.14%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  105.91/Euro RISES TO 1.0423

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.239!!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 139,34/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN-//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.059%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.975%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.067%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.237//

3j Gold at $1779.65//silver at: 21.81  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 33/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.07//

3m oil into the 86 dollar handle for WTI and  94 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 139.24DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9798– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9789well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.770% DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.962% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,61…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.273%

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Flat As War Threat Fades

WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 08:05 AM

US equity futures were flat, having traded in a narrow range on either side of unchanged, as investors braced for the latest retail sales data, assessed the easing path of inflation and remained calm in the face of rising geopolitical concerns resulting from a NATO attempt to paint rocket a Ukraine strike on a Polish village as Russian, in hopes of dramatically escalating the war.

Luckily, video evidence refuted the false flag, and overnight NATO was forced to admit that the “:Explosion in Poland was Likely Due to Ukraine Air Defense” Even so, the Western pro-war alliance still blamed Russia with  NATO’s Secretary General saying the blast in Poland was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile but that Russia was ultimately responsible because it started the war. “They are responsible for the war that has caused this situation.” Propaganda aside, fears of an immediate spillover from the conflict were soothed, knocking the yen and dollar lower, as demand for safe-haven assets gradually faded.  

“It’s a reminder that the risk of escalation is in the background. It’s something we need to watch for, because any escalation of military action and additional impact on energy supply could seriously disrupt markets,” said Kiran Ganesh, managing director at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Failed Gulf of Tonkin 2.0 aside, contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were down 0.1% and the S&P 500 was flat as of 7:30 a.m. in New York, erasing modest earlier losses and gains; the dollar dropped and the euro and the Polish zloty recouped earlier knee-jerk losses. 10Y yields traded near session lows at 3.758%. 

In premarket trading, stocks linked to Donald Trump, including blank check company Digital World Acquisition Corp., surged after the former president officially entered the 2024 presidential race. Meanwhile, suppliers to Apple could be active, following a report about the iPhone maker preparing to begin sourcing chips for its devices from a plant under construction in Arizona. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

  • Carnival (CCL US) shares fall 13% after a private offering of $1 billion of convertible senior notes.
  • Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA US) shares dropped as much as 7.5% after the cell-programming platform provider launched a share sale, with the company planning to use the net proceeds to offset the cash used to finance the acquisition of assets and liabilities of Bayer CropScience, and for other general corporate purposes.
  • Tattooed Chef (TTCF US) slides as much as 15% after the plant-based food company said it intends to raise additional debt or equity capital in the “near future.”
  • Advance Auto (AAP US) shares dive as much as 14% set for its biggest drop since March 2020, with analysts saying that the car parts retailer’s results were underwhelming and a surprise with earnings per share missing estimates and the firm nudging down its guidance. Analysts also flagged a negative impact from currency and higher expenses.
  • Lulu’s Fashion Lounge (LVLU US) fell 26% after its revenue forecast for 2022 fell short of the average analyst estimate. The company also said Chief Financial Officer Crystal Landsem will succeed David McCreight as chief executive officer, effective March 6.

US stocks rose Tuesday as fresh data added to evidence that inflation may have peaked, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to moderate the pace of interest-rate hikes. “Investors’ euphoria is understandable given the first small signs of easing on the inflation front, but we wonder whether it isn’t also a bit overdone,” said Marko Behring, head of asset management at Fuerst Fugger Privatbank. “The current recovery moves, which are overshooting a bit, could trigger exactly what many market participants no longer have on their radar: a US central bank that might have to act more aggressively again, precisely because of the burgeoning euphoria.”

Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. sees the moves as overdone, and predicted more volatility ahead. US retail sales and housing market data due later on Wednesday may offer more clues on the state of the US economy.

“I am more in the dollar-plateau versus the dollar-peak camp,” he said. “Inflation may have peaked but that doesn’t mean it’s coming down rapidly. We have probably seen the peak for the dollar but it wouldn’t surprise me if we go back into a period of softer equities.”

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped as geopolitical developments weigh on sentiment; risk was dragged down by real estate, autos and retail. Energy outperformed. The FTSE 100 outperforms, adding 0.2%, IBEX lags, dropping 0.9%. There were signs of overheating in the region after a 19% rally since Sept. 29 for euro-area blue chips, which reached their most overbought level in nearly 23 years. UK inflation data for October was higher than expected, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising interest rates. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Siemens Energy rises as much as 7.8% to its highest since Aug. 31 after the energy development company reported a “solid finish” to FY22 with the growth and margin outlook looking strong, according to Jefferies.
  • Sage Group jumps as much as 7.1%, with analysts saying the software maker’s annualized recurring revenue growth of 12% and FY23 outlook are bright spots of its full-year results.
  • Alstom climbs as much as 6.3% after the French rail equipment maker reported first-half results, with orders beating expectations.
  • Prosus gains as much as 4.8% after Chinese online giant Tencent reported better-than-expected profit and said it will distribute the majority of its shares in food delivery firm Meituan to investors.
  • Swedish landlord Balder falls as much as 8.1% on reports it may face a credit downgrade by S&P, pulling local peers lower.
  • Mercedes-Benz falls as much as 6.2%, the most intraday since Sept. 5 and the worst performer in the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index; the German carmaker cut prices on two EV models in China, with Oddo saying the move is “new evidence of tough competition” in the country.
  • Evotec falls as much as 6.2% after Deutsche Bank downgrades to hold from buy, with the broker seeing risks to the German pharma firm’s 2022 guidance and saying its ability to meet 2023 consensus estimates is “ambitious.”
  • SGS shares drop as much as 5.9%, the most since March 2020, after an unscheduled trading update from the Swiss industrial that Morgan Stanley said could drive downgrades in the mid single-digits.

Asian stocks fell as traders weighed rising geopolitical tensions and surging Covid cases in China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.1% before paring to 0.4%. Key gauges in China and Hong Kong led declines, with most national benchmarks in the red. Risk-off sentiment returned after a Russian-made missile struck Poland, though US President Joe Biden said it was unlikely to have been fired from Russia. A jump in China’s daily virus tally further fueled investor caution, casting doubt over a potential exit from its Covid Zero policy. Signs that the Federal Reserve is slowing its pace of monetary tightening have lifted markets this month, with a slew of Fed speakers indicating a readiness to moderate the size of their rates hikes. The Asian stock benchmark is up 13% so far in November, poised for its best monthly performance since 1998. “The Fed has garnered more catalysts to slow its pace of hikes, which also provides further support to the equity market rally,” said Jessica Amir, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. The next important data sets the Fed will be watching are due early next month, including US jobs and CPI, she added.

Japanese stocks closed mixed as US President Joe Biden and key European leaders urged caution after a rocket struck a Polish village just over the border from Ukraine. The Topix closed little changed at 1,963.29, while the Nikkei advanced 0.1% to 28,028.30. The yen weakened against the dollar, erasing earlier gains. Out of 2,165 stocks in the index, 1,076 rose and 966 fell, while 123 were unchanged. “There is a bit of a risk-off mood after news that a Russian missile landed in Poland,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. “In an extreme case, if NATO were to move, the market would become more risk averse in general.”

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index falls 0.2%. JPY and GBP are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, EUR and DKK outperform.

  • The euro led G-10 gains and rose for a second day versus the dollar, but remained within yesterday’s range. The common currency’s volatility skew shifted lower this week, urging caution to those long the euro in the spot market.
  • The pound held its ground against a broadly weaker dollar, but underperformed most major currencies after data showed UK inflation rose; UK CPI rose to 11.1% from a year ago in October, the highest in 41-years. That was more than the central bank’s peak forecast for 10.9% and the 10.7% median that economists had expected. Focus turns to Bank of England officials’ testimony to lawmakers later and then the fiscal statement Thursday. Gilt yields were 1bp lower to 2bps higher.
  • The Aussie trades near its strongest level in more than two months as the nation’s relationship with China appears to be stabilizing and on the back of a weaker greenback from easing concerns over geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe. The nation’s wages climbed 1% in the three months through September from the prior quarter, the fastest pace since early 2012, for an annual gain of 3.1%

In rates, Treasuries were narrowly mixed after paring losses, with 2s10s curve flatter; bunds and gilts outperformed during London morning. 20-year new-issue auction is a focal point of US session, along with retail sales and three scheduled Fed speakers. 10-year TSY yields dropped to 3.76% vs day’s high 3.84%, lagging bunds and gilts in the sector by ~3bp; front-end underperformance flattens 2s10s by ~1bp to -59bp, within 3bp of cycle low reached Nov. 4. There is a $15 billion 20-year TSY bond auction at 1pm which has a WI yield ~4.160%, around 23.5bp richer than October’s result, a 2.5bp tail. In Europe, Bunds were steady, while Italian bonds advanced, led by the long end, and outperforming euro-area peers.

In commodities, crude benchmarks began the session a touch softer, with participants digesting the multiple updates around the Poland missile incident and the Druzhba pipeline. However, the complex then spiked on the below reports of an oil tanker being attacked near Oman; sending WTI and Brent to USD 87.51/bbl and USD 94.79/bbl peaks. Defense Official says that an oil tanker has been struck in an exploding drone attack off Oman, amid heightened tensions with Iran, via AP’s Miller. The attack happened Tuesday night off the coast of Oman, according to the official. Spot gold is modestly firmer given the aforementioned geopolitical concerns and as the DXY languishes below 106.00; albeit, the yellow metal is yet to surpass Tuesday’s USD 1786/oz peak.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK and Canadian CPI for October, as well as US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for October, and the NAHB housing market index for November. Central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Muller, Centeno, Villeroy and Panetta, and the Fed’s Williams, Barr and Waller. Finally, earnings releases include Nvidia, Cisco Systems, Lowe’s, TJX Companies and Target.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,006.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 431.49
  • German 10Y yield up 0.3% to 2.11%
  • Euro up 0.6% to $1.0411
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 154.12
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 500.16
  • Nikkei up 0.1% to 28,028.30
  • Topix little changed at 1,963.29
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 18,256.48
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,119.98
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 62,005.19
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,122.24
  • Kospi down 0.1% to 2,477.45
  • Brent Futures up 0.8% to $94.57/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,780.53
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.23% to 106.16

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • US President Joe Biden said a rocket that struck a village in Poland near the Ukraine border was unlikely to have been fired from Russia, comments that may limit the risk of a major escalation in tensions over the incident.
  • The cost-of-living squeeze is hurting people’s ability to service debts, while Europe’s worsening growth prospects threaten corporate profits, the ECB said Wednesday in its Financial Stability Review
  • Things are finally looking up for China’s economy, and with that traders are ditching government bonds for riskier bets. Yields on benchmark 10-year debt jumped as much as four basis points to 2.85% on Wednesday, the highest since December
  • A world-beating rally across Asian markets is starting to look precarious as some analysts caution China reopening euphoria will give way to the sober reality of a looming global recession

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded lower throughout the session but climbed off session lows as markets juggled the US PPI data with the latest geopolitical development. ASX 200 was pressured by its heavyweight Financials sector, with losses also seen across gold miners. Nikkei 225 briefly fell back under the 28k mark but losses were cushioned by the weaker JPY, whilst machinery names were after the Japanese government cutting its machinery orders assessment. KOSPI conformed to the downbeat tone across the region with the heaviest losses seen across the electronics and construction sectors.

Top Asian News

  • China’s state planner said growth stabilisation policies will take effect in Q4, will actively expand effective investment and speed up consumption recovery in key sectors, via Reuters.
  • China reported 1,623 (prev. 1,661) new coronavirus cases in the mainland for Nov 15
  • China’s Beijing reported 197 new local symptomatic cases (vs 303 the prior day)
  • Shanghai Disney said parts of the resort will resume operations on Nov 17th; Disneyland Park will remain closed until further notice, via Reuters.
  • Xinjiang’s Yining announced on Tue life & production will return to normal, after successfully curbing the latest COVID 19 spread, according to Global Times.
  • PBoC injected CNY 71bln via 7-day reverse repos at a maintained rate of 2.00% for a CNY 63bln net injection.
  • PBoC Governor Yi said talks with US Treasury Secretary Yellen were candid and constructive, via Bloomberg.
  •    US Treasury Secretary Yellen and PBoC Governor Yi discussed macroeconomic and financial developments, high and volatile commodity prices, the sides exchanged macroeconomic views outlooks of US and China. Yellen noted that she looks forward to future engagements with the Chinese side, according to the Treasury Department.

European bourses have spent much of the morning fairly contained but with a gradually increasing negative bias, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, as the recent rally pauses amid numerous geopolitical developments. US futures are marginally firmer, ES +0.1%, but similarly contained as the ES clings onto the 4k mark ahead of numerous metrics and more Fed speak. Amazon’s (AMZN) retail business is reportedly bracing for a tough holiday season by “sellers for lump sums of cash and limiting inventory”, according to Business Insider. Lowe’s Companies Inc (LOW) Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.27 (exp. 3.10), Revenue 23.5bln (exp. 23.13bln); raises FY22 outlook

Top European News

  • UK Inflation Hits 41-Year High on Soaring Energy Prices
  • Carnival Drops After $1b Convertible Senior Notes Offering
  • Air France-KLM Falls on Convertible Bond Offer, Strike Plans
  • Inflation Is Peaking ‘Right Now,’ World’s Top Cement Maker Says
  • Druzhba Pipe May Resume Soon as Market on Edge: Energy Latest
  • UK Braces for ‘Austerity on Steroids’ With Little Left to Cut

Central Banks

  • Fed’s George (voter) says Fed should continue raising rates, but Fed should slow pace of hikes, WSJ reports. Bringing inflation down without a recession might not be feasible. Inflation is at risk of growing entrenched in the economy due to an overheated job market, and that will make it increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation down without a recession.
  • ECB’s Muller says both 50bps and 75bps rate hikes are ‘substantial’, adding that he favours a ‘substantial’ rate hike in December.
  • ECB’s Visco says price growth could return to target by the end of 2024; ECB needs to continue with restrictive policy.
  • ECB’s de Guindos says it is difficult to have financial stability without price stability.
  • ECB Euro Zone Financial Stability Review: Risks are increasing and banks may need to build up provisions.

FX

  • DXY once again on the backfoot and sub-106.00 to the modest benefit of peers, ex-JPY.
  • EUR/USD is the current outperformer given the soft USD with specific developments limited aside from numerous ECB speakers though largely on financial stability; currently, holding above 1.04.
  • Cable briefly spiked on the hot UK CPI release, to a 1.1942 high; however, this proved shortlived given the overarching headwind of a bleak domestic outlook.
  • As mentioned, JPY is the G10 laggard, with USD/JPY briefly rising as high as 140.29 though it has since managed to move back below 140.00.
  • PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0363 vs exp. 7.0409 (prev. 7.0421)

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks began the session a touch softer, with participants digesting the multiple updates around the Poland missile incident and the Druzhba pipeline.
  • However, the complex then spiked on the below reports of an oil tanker being attacked near Oman; sending WTI and Brent to USD 87.51/bbl and USD 94.79/bbl peaks.
  • Defense Official says that an oil tanker has been struck in an exploding drone attack off Oman, amid heightened tensions with Iran, via AP’s Miller. The attack happened Tuesday night off the coast of Oman, according to the official.
  • US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude -5.8mln (exp. -0.4mln), Cushing -0.8mln, Gasoline +1.69mln (exp. +0.3mln), and Distillate +0.9mln (exp. -0.5mln).
  • Russian Kremlin says hard work continues on reviving the grain deal, if necessary President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan will coordinate within hours; Russian Finance Minister says supported an extension of the grain deal at the G20 summit, via Reuters.
  • Spot gold is modestly firmer given the aforementioned geopolitical concerns and as the DXY languishes below 106.00; albeit, the yellow metal is yet to surpass Tuesday’s USD 1786/oz peak.

Central Banks

  • Fed’s George (voter) says Fed should continue raising rates, but Fed should slow pace of hikes, WSJ reports. Bringing inflation down without a recession might not be feasible. Inflation is at risk of growing entrenched in the economy due to an overheated job market, and that will make it increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation down without a recession.
  • ECB’s Muller says both 50bps and 75bps rate hikes are ‘substantial’, adding that he favours a ‘substantial’ rate hike in December.
  • ECB’s Visco says price growth could return to target by the end of 2024; ECB needs to continue with restrictive policy.
  • ECB’s de Guindos says it is difficult to have financial stability without price stability.
  • ECB Euro Zone Financial Stability Review: Risks are increasing and banks may need to build up provisions.

Geopolitics

  • Polish Foreign Ministry said a “Russian-made” rocket landed in a Polish village at 15:40 local time; Poland has summoned the Russian ambassador, via Reuters.
  • US officials said initial findings suggest the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, according to AP
  • US President Biden said the missile that hit a Polish village near the border with Ukraine was probably not launched from Russian territory, citing information on the rocket’s trajectory, via dpa.
  • US President Biden said leaders will determine the next steps after finding out what happened in Poland, and added that Russia continues to escalate its attacks in Ukraine.
  • Polish President said there is no definitive evidence of who fired the rocket that fell onto the village, and added that what happened was a one-off incident and there are no indications that it will happen again, via Reuters.
  • Local Polish media reports citing sources said what hit Przewowo is most likely the remains of a rocket shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, via Radio Zet.
  • Polish PM said they are working to establish the cause of the explosion in the village near the border with Ukraine, and decided to increase monitoring of air space, according to Reuters.
  • Kremlin spokesperson said he has no information on the incident in Poland, via Reuters.
  • Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy said Russian missiles have struck Poland; strikes on NATO territory a significant escalation and action is required, via Reuters.
  • Polish President said it is very likely that Poland will activate Article 4 of the NATO Treaty on Wednesday at the NATO meeting, via Reuters. Subsequently, reports via local press indicate that Poland will not request the Article 4 activation. A view the Polish PM has since intimated as well.
  • NATO ambassadors to meet on Wednesday at Poland’s request on the alliance’s Article 4, according to European diplomats cited by Reuters. NATO SecGen to brief at 11:30GMT/06:30ET.
  • US President Biden told the G7/NATO that the Poland blast was caused by Ukrainian air defence missile, via Reuters citing a NATO source.

US Event Calendar

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The good news for markets has continued over the last 24 hours, despite headlines after Europe closed of Russian rockets landing in Poland injecting a fresh bout of uncertainty and intraday volatility. This dented sentiment but we recovered around half of the earlier gains by the US close as the general conclusion was that it was more likely to be accidental than an enormous escalation. As we go to press an AP reporter has suggested that US officials’ initial investigations suggest it was in fact a Ukrainian rocket fired at incoming Russian missles. This follows Biden’s earlier overnight remarks that it was unlikely the rocket was fired from Russia.

More on that later, but all told, bonds and equities managed to hold onto their post-data surge after US producer price inflation eased by more than expected. That follows on the heels of last Thursday’s downside surprise in consumer price inflation, and added to the narrative that we’re past the worst on inflation and that the Fed will soon be able to slow down its rate hikes. The S&P 500 (+0.87%) just about erased the previous day’s losses even though they came off their +1.80% highs earlier in the session. The index did briefly go negative on the Poland headlines. The S&P’s gains over the last 4 sessions now stand at +6.49%, just shy of the largest 4-day gain for the index in over two years.

In terms of the details of that PPI release, monthly headline inflation surprised to the downside with a +0.2% reading (vs. +0.4% expected). And as with the CPI reading, core PPI also came in beneath expectations with an unchanged reading (vs. +0.3% expected), thus cementing the idea that this downshift could prove more durable. In turn, those weaker-than-expected inflation readings took the year-on-year numbers to their lowest in some time, with headline PPI down to +8.0% (vs. +8.3% expected), which is the lowest since July 2021. The big test now will be whether these very positive numbers from October can be sustained, or whether it’s a repeat of July’s downside surprise that was then followed by more negative prints once again.

More on the Poland story now and the spike down in risk occurred as reports indicated Russian rockets landed in Poland, a NATO member, and killing two people. The initial reaction was understandable given that any deliberate strike on a NATO member would mark an enormous escalatory step. It soon became apparent that this was highly unlikely to be a direct attack, and the overnight comments mentioned at the top suggest a rapid deescation.

As such markets can go back to focusing on the positives, which was given further momentum by some decent corporate news from Walmart (+6.66%). The company raised their full-year outlook, and now see adjusted EPS declining by 6-7% rather than 9-11% as previously suggested, and also approved a new $20bn share buyback plan. This collection of good news meant that there was a very broad-based advance for equities, with every sector group bar two rising on the day, and even those two sectors just missed, with health care down -0.07% and materials -0.11% lower. Tech stocks saw a particular outperformance, with the NASDAQ up +1.45%, which brings its own 4-day rally to an even bigger +9.71%.

This strength was echoed among sovereign bonds, with 10yr Treasury yields down -8.4bps yesterday to a new one-month low of 3.77%. However, the declines were smaller at the front end of the curve, which led the 2s10s curve to flatten another -3.3bps to -57.5bps, making it the most inverted the curve has been since 1982, which is alarming when you consider its record as a recessionary indicator, having inverted prior to all of the last 10 US recessions. The 3m10yr curve also moved even deeper into inversion, falling another -15.7bps to -45.5bps, which is something we haven’t seen since September 2019. While the Fed’s preferred yield curve measure (18m3m – 3m) fell deeper into inflationary territory, falling -8.7bps to -11.4bps. Meanwhile, this morning in Asia, yields on 10yr USTs (+5bps) have pushed back up, trading at 3.82% as we go to press. 2yr yields are +3bps. Watch out for UK CPI just after we hit your email boxes.

Over in Europe, sovereign bonds also rallied yesterday with trading done before the stray rocket news, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.8bps), OATs (-5.7bps) and BTPs (-12.2bps) all moving lower. And that came in spite of a further uptick in natural gas prices yesterday, which gained +6.9% to €122 per megawatt-hour. Meanwhile, equities similarly rallied in line with their US counterparts, with the STOXX 600 (+0.37%) advancing for the 7th time in the last 8 sessions, taking it to its highest level in nearly 3 months.

This morning equity markets in Asia are mixed but with China risk weaker again after a very strong run. Across the region, the Hang Seng (-1.4%) is leading losses, with the Shanghai Composite (-0.47%) also lower. Elsewhere the KOSPI (-0.2%) is also lower but the Nikkei 225 (+0.14%) is trading up, reversing its opening losses. Markets have got a small spike since the AP report mentioned in the first paragraph. US stock futures are flat but European futures are still down around half a percent.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s core machine orders in September unexpectedly slid -4.6% m/m (v/s +0.7% expected) following the -5.8% contraction in August.

Moving to China, Covid cases continue to climb with cases surging to almost 20,000 yesterday, the highest level since late-April when Shanghai (the country’s financial hub) was in the middle of a two-month lockdown. The outbreaks are a major test for authorities after the country’s leaders relaxed some of its strict Covid Zero measures.

Overnight we also heard from former US President Donald Trump, who has confirmed he’s running in the 2024 presidential election. So far he’s the only major contender from either party to announce his candidacy, with the election still almost two years away. His hope will be that this effectively clears the Republican primary field and the party coalesces behind him over the months ahead. If he succeeds, he would become just the second president to serve non-consecutive terms in the White House, after Grover Cleveland in the 19th century. In other news yesterday, the Republicans remain just one seat away from winning control of the House of Representative. The latest count from the Associated Press gives the Republicans 217 seats, with the Democrats on 205. So it would require the Democrats to sweep every outstanding seat now in order to keep the House, including a number in which they’re behind in the current vote count.

Here in the UK, attention is turning towards tomorrow’s Autumn Statement from the government, but ahead of that we had a mixed set of data releases on the labour market. On the one hand there was some positive news, with the number of payrolled employees up by +74k in October (vs. +44k expected), with positive revisions to the previous month as well. However, the unemployment rate in the three months to September unexpectedly picked up a tenth to 3.6%, and the economic inactivity rate among the working-age population also rose by two-tenths to 21.6% over the same period. All eyes will be on the October CPI release this morning, where our economist is expecting it to rise to a fresh 40-year high of +10.9%. In the meantime though, sterling (+0.93%) strengthened to $1.187 yesterday, marking its strongest level since mid-August. The dollar index rebounded from its morning lows when it appeared that the pivot was gaining steam following the rocket news. It ultimately finished just -0.24% lower.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, there were some positive developments in the German ZEW survey for November, where the expectations component rose to -36.7 (vs. -51.0 expected), and the current situation reading rose to -64.5 (vs. -69.3 expected). Otherwise, the US Empire State manufacturing survey rose to 4.5 in November (vs. -6.0 expected), which is its highest level since July.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK and Canadian CPI for October, as well as US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for October, and the NAHB housing market index for November. Central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Muller, Centeno, Villeroy and Panetta, and the Fed’s Williams, Barr and Waller. Finally, earnings releases include Nvidia, Cisco Systems, Lowe’s, TJX Companies and Target.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Sentiment cautious amid numerous geopolitical developments ahead of several speakers – Newsquawk US Market Open

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WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 06:47 AM

  • European bourses have spent much of the morning fairly contained but with a gradually increasing negative bias, as the recent rally pauses amid numerous geopolitical developments.
  • DXY is once again on the backfoot and sub-106.00 to the modest benefit of peers, ex-JPY.
  • The bund is currently near the unchanged mark despite some fairly marked gyrations overnight and throughout the European morning amid geopols. & hot UK CPI.
  • Crude benchmarks began a touch softer digesting the latest clarifications, however reports of an oil tanker attack lifted price action.
  • Fed’s George (voter) says Fed should continue raising rates, but Fed should slow pace of hikes, WSJ reports.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI, US Retail Sales and IP, BoE Treasury Select Committee, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, Fed’s Williams, Barr, Waller, Supply from the US.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses have spent much of the morning fairly contained but with a gradually increasing negative bias, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, as the recent rally pauses amid numerous geopolitical developments.
  • US futures are marginally firmer, ES +0.1%, but similarly contained as the ES clings onto the 4k mark ahead of numerous metrics and more Fed speak.
  • Amazon’s (AMZN) retail business is reportedly bracing for a tough holiday season by “sellers for lump sums of cash and limiting inventory”, according to Business Insider.
  • Lowe’s Companies Inc (LOW) Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.27 (exp. 3.10), Revenue 23.5bln (exp. 23.13bln); raises FY22 outlook
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY once again on the backfoot and sub-106.00 to the modest benefit of peers, ex-JPY.
  • EUR/USD is the current outperformer given the soft USD with specific developments limited aside from numerous ECB speakers though largely on financial stability; currently, holding above 1.04.
  • Cable briefly spiked on the hot UK CPI release, to a 1.1942 high; however, this proved shortlived given the overarching headwind of a bleak domestic outlook.
  • As mentioned, JPY is the G10 laggard, with USD/JPY briefly rising as high as 140.29 though it has since managed to move back below 140.00.
  • PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0363 vs exp. 7.0409 (prev. 7.0421)
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Bunds and Gilts are currently near the unchanged mark despite some fairly marked gyrations overnight and throughout the European morning amid the hot UK CPI metrics.
  • Inflation aside, the main drivers have been on the supply side with BTPs outperforming and above 118.00 as the Futura receives demand over EUR 6bln.
  • Stateside, USTs are in-fitting with EGBs and thus near the unchanged mark with yields slightly mixed and largelly unreactive to Fed’s George (voter) saying the pace of hikes should slow.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks began the session a touch softer, with participants digesting the multiple updates around the Poland missile incident and the Druzhba pipeline.
  • However, the complex then spiked on the below reports of an oil tanker being attacked near Oman; sending WTI and Brent to USD 87.51/bbl and USD 94.79/bbl peaks.
  • Defense Official says that an oil tanker has been struck in an exploding drone attack off Oman, amid heightened tensions with Iran, via AP’s Miller. The attack happened Tuesday night off the coast of Oman, according to the official.
  • US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude -5.8mln (exp. -0.4mln), Cushing -0.8mln, Gasoline +1.69mln (exp. +0.3mln), and Distillate +0.9mln (exp. -0.5mln).
  • Russian Kremlin says hard work continues on reviving the grain deal, if necessary President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan will coordinate within hours; Russian Finance Minister says supported an extension of the grain deal at the G20 summit, via Reuters.
  • Spot gold is modestly firmer given the aforementioned geopolitical concerns and as the DXY languishes below 106.00; albeit, the yellow metal is yet to surpass Tuesday’s USD 1786/oz peak.
  • Click here for more detail.

CENTRAL BANKS

  • Fed’s George (voter) says Fed should continue raising rates, but Fed should slow pace of hikes, WSJ reports. Bringing inflation down without a recession might not be feasible. Inflation is at risk of growing entrenched in the economy due to an overheated job market, and that will make it increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation down without a recession.
  • ECB’s Muller says both 50bps and 75bps rate hikes are ‘substantial’, adding that he favours a ‘substantial’ rate hike in December.
  • ECB’s Visco says price growth could return to target by the end of 2024; ECB needs to continue with restrictive policy.
  • ECB’s de Guindos says it is difficult to have financial stability without price stability.
  • ECB Euro Zone Financial Stability Review: Risks are increasing and banks may need to build up provisions.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • UK Chancellor Hunt is to give local authorities the right to raise council tax by a maximum of 4.99% from 2.99%, according to FT.
  • UK regulators may require social media firms to disclose algorithms, according to the FT.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • UK CPI YY (Oct) 11.1% vs. Exp. 10.7% (Prev. 10.1%); MM (Oct) 2.0% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 0.5%)
  • UK Core CPI YY (Oct) 6.5% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 6.5%); MM (Oct) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
  • UK ONS House Price Index (Sep): 9.5% YY vs exp. 9.8% (rev. 13.1%).

NOTABLE US HEADLINE

  • Apple (AAPL) CEO said it’s made the decision to source chips from Arizona and source additional chips from Europe and is set to buy chips from the plant that opens in 2024, according to Bloomberg.
  • Elon Musk said reports that SpaceX is in funding talks that would value it over USD 150bln is false.
  • US Republicans won control of the US House of Representatives, according to Decision Desk HQ.
  • Former US President Trump filed a statement of candidacy for the 2024 presidential bid, according to Bloomberg.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Polish Foreign Ministry said a “Russian-made” rocket landed in a Polish village at 15:40 local time; Poland has summoned the Russian ambassador, via Reuters.
  • US officials said initial findings suggest the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, according to AP
  • US President Biden said the missile that hit a Polish village near the border with Ukraine was probably not launched from Russian territory, citing information on the rocket’s trajectory, via dpa.
  • US President Biden said leaders will determine the next steps after finding out what happened in Poland, and added that Russia continues to escalate its attacks in Ukraine.
  • Polish President said there is no definitive evidence of who fired the rocket that fell onto the village, and added that what happened was a one-off incident and there are no indications that it will happen again, via Reuters.
  • Local Polish media reports citing sources said what hit Przewowo is most likely the remains of a rocket shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, via Radio Zet.
  • Polish PM said they are working to establish the cause of the explosion in the village near the border with Ukraine, and decided to increase monitoring of air space, according to Reuters.
  • Kremlin spokesperson said he has no information on the incident in Poland, via Reuters.
  • Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy said Russian missiles have struck Poland; strikes on NATO territory a significant escalation and action is required, via Reuters.
  • Polish President said it is very likely that Poland will activate Article 4 of the NATO Treaty on Wednesday at the NATO meeting, via Reuters. Subsequently, reports via local press indicate that Poland will not request the Article 4 activation. A view the Polish PM has since intimated as well.
  • NATO ambassadors to meet on Wednesday at Poland’s request on the alliance’s Article 4, according to European diplomats cited by Reuters. NATO SecGen to brief at 11:30GMT/06:30ET.
  • US President Biden told the G7/NATO that the Poland blast was caused by Ukrainian air defence missile, via Reuters citing a NATO source.

OTHER

  • UK PM Sunak is to meet Chinese President Xi on the sidelines of G20, according to Politico; meeting has subsequently been cancelled, due to the emergency meeting re. Poland.
  • WTO Chief said risks to 2023 global trade forecasts are on the downside; said the US is actively consulting with WTO members informally on dispute settlement system reform – hopeful of a breakthrough next year, via Reuters.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks traded lower throughout the session but climbed off session lows as markets juggled the US PPI data with the latest geopolitical development.
  • ASX 200 was pressured by its heavyweight Financials sector, with losses also seen across gold miners.
  • Nikkei 225 briefly fell back under the 28k mark but losses were cushioned by the weaker JPY, whilst machinery names were after the Japanese government cutting its machinery orders assessment.
  • KOSPI conformed to the downbeat tone across the region with the heaviest losses seen across the electronics and construction sectors.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • China’s state planner said growth stabilisation policies will take effect in Q4, will actively expand effective investment and speed up consumption recovery in key sectors, via Reuters.
  • China reported 1,623 (prev. 1,661) new coronavirus cases in the mainland for Nov 15
  • China’s Beijing reported 197 new local symptomatic cases (vs 303 the prior day)
  • Shanghai Disney said parts of the resort will resume operations on Nov 17th; Disneyland Park will remain closed until further notice, via Reuters.
  • Xinjiang’s Yining announced on Tue life & production will return to normal, after successfully curbing the latest COVID 19 spread, according to Global Times.
  • PBoC injected CNY 71bln via 7-day reverse repos at a maintained rate of 2.00% for a CNY 63bln net injection.
  • PBoC Governor Yi said talks with US Treasury Secretary Yellen were candid and constructive, via Bloomberg.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen and PBoC Governor Yi discussed macroeconomic and financial developments, high and volatile commodity prices, the sides exchanged macroeconomic views outlooks of US and China. Yellen noted that she looks forward to future engagements with the Chinese side, according to the Treasury Department.

APAC DATA

  • Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Sep) -4.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -5.8%); YY (Sep) 2.9% vs. Exp. 7.4% (Prev. 9.7%)
  • Australian Westpac Leading Index (Oct) -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
  • Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q3) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.7%, Rev. 0.8%); YY (Q3) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.6%)
  • Chinese House Prices YY (Oct) -1.6% (Prev. -1.5%)

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.10 PTS OR 0.45%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 86,64 OR  0.47%    /The Nikkei closed UP 38.13 OR 0.14%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN  0.25%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.0803 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.0813//    /Oil UP TO 86.85 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 94.21    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

JAPAN

END

3c CHINA

CHINA/ECONOMY

end

CHINA/COVID

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

GERMANY

Huge story//Bank runs galore as Germany prepares for emergency cash deliveries!!

Germany Preparing For Emergency Cash Deliveries, Bank Runs And “Aggressive Discontent” Ahead Of Winter Power Cuts

WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 11:20 AM

While Europe has been keeping a generally optimistic facade ahead of the coming cold winter, signaling that it has more than enough gas in storage to make up for loss of Russian supply even in a “coldest-case” scenario, behind the scenes Europe’s largest economy is quietly preparing for a worst case scenario which include angry mobs and bankruns should blackouts prevent the population from accessing cash.

As Reuters reports citing four sources, German authorities have stepped up preparations for emergency cash deliveries in case of a blackout (or rather blackouts) to keep the economy running, as the nation braces for possible power cuts arising from the war in Ukraine. The plans include the Bundesbank hoarding extra billions to cope with a surge in demand, as well as “possible limits on withdrawals”, one of the people said. And if you think crypto investors are angry when they can’t access their digital tokens in a bankrupt exchange, just wait until you see a German whose cash has just been locked out.

Officials and banks are looking not only at origination (i.e., money-printing) but also at distribution, discussing for example priority fuel access for cash transporters, according to other sources commenting on preparations that accelerated in recent weeks after Russia throttled gas supplies.

The planning discussions involve the central bank, its financial market regulator BaFin, and multiple financial industry associations, said the Reuters sources most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity about plans that are private and in flux.

Although German authorities have publicly played down the likelihood of a blackout and bank runs – for obvious reasons  – the discussions show both how seriously they take the threat and how they struggle to prepare for potential crippling power outages caused by soaring energy costs or even sabotage. They also underscore the widening ramifications of the Ukraine war for Germany, which has for decades relied on affordable Russian energy and now faces double-digit inflation and a threat of disruption from fuel and energy shortages.

As everyone familiar with the recent history of the Wimar Republic Germany knows, access to cash is of special concern for Germans, who value the security and anonymity it offers, and who tend to use it more than other Europeans, with some still hoarding Deutschmarks replaced by euros more than two decades ago.

According to a recent Bundesbank study, roughly 60% of everyday German purchases are paid in cash, and Germans, on average, withdrew more than 6,600 euros annually chiefly from cash machines.

And here is the punchline: a parliamentary report a decade ago warned of “discontent” and “aggressive altercations” in case citizens were unable to get their hands on cash in a blackout. Translation: in case of cash withdrawal halts, German society may very well tear itself apart.

Indeed, there was a rush for cash at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, when Germans withdrew 20 billion more euros than they deposited. That was a record, and it worked generally without a hitch.  But a potential blackout raises new questions about possible scenarios, and officials are intensively revisiting the issue as the energy crisis in Europe’s largest economy deepens and winter nears.

If a blackout struck, one option for policymakers could be to limit the amount of cash individuals withdraw, said one of the people. Needless to say, that would be a very bad option for Germany, and for fiat in general (after all, if the FTX bankruptcy is a black eye for crypto, what can one say about fiat if one of the world’s most advanced economies limits access to cash). The Bundesbank processes cash moving through Germany’s shops and economy, removing fakes and keeping circulation orderly. Its massive stocks make it ready for any spike in demand, that person said.

One weakness that planning exposed involves security firms that transport money from the central bank to ATMs and banks. The industry, which includes Brinks and Loomis is not fully covered by law guiding priority access to fuel and telecommunications during a blackout, according to the industry organization BDGW.

“There are big loopholes,” said Andreas Paulick, BDGW director. Armoured vehicles would have to line up at petrol stations like everyone else, he said. The organization hosted a meeting last week with central bank officials and lawmakers to press its case.

“We must preventively tackle the realistic scenario of a blackout,” Paulick said. “It would be totally naive to not talk about this at a time like now.”

How bad could it get? Well, more than 40% of Germans fear a blackout in the next six months, according to a survey last week published by Funke Mediengruppe. And since at least one blackout is virtually assured in the coming months, that means a stampede for the nearest ATM, something the local financial infrastructure will unlikely be able to handle.

As a result, Germany’s disaster office said it recommended people keep cash at home for such emergencies (surely this will inspire confidence).

Meanwhile, another Reuters source notes that German financial regulators worry that banks are not fully prepared for major power outages and view it as a new, previously unforeseen risk. Banks consider a full-scale blackout “improbable”, according to Deutsche Kreditwirtschaft, the financial sector’s umbrella organization. But banks nevertheless are “in contact with the relevant ministries and authorities” to plan for such a scenario, especially since anything banks say is “improbable” tends to happen rather regularly. It said finance should be considered as critical infrastructure if energy is rationed.

At times politics can get in the way of blackout planning. In Frankfurt, Germany’s banking capital, one city council member proposed requiring it to present a blackout plan by Nov. 17. The politician, Markus Fuchs of the right-wing AfD party, told the council it would be irresponsible not to plan for one. But the other parties rejected the proposal, accusing Fuchs and his party of inciting panic.

Fuchs later said in a phone interview: “If we found a solution for world peace, it would be rejected.” The issue also underscores the dependence of commerce on technology, with transactions increasingly electronic, and where most cash machines have no emergency power source.

Cash would be the only official payment method that would still work, said Thomas Leitert, chief of KomRe, a company that advises cities on planning for blackouts and other catastrophes.

“How else will the ravioli cans and candles be paid for?” Leitert said. Well, there is that whole crypto thing, but the 2nd biggest Democratic donor did a bang up job there…

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

My goodness: Iranian court issues first protest related death sentence.  When will the citizens of Iran rise and overthrow these criminals

(zerohedge)

Iran Court Issues First Protest-Related Death Sentence

WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 04:00 AM

Anti-government protests have continued raging in Iran since they started in mid-September, following the death in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini for alleged non-compliance with the country’s strict Islamic dress code. 

The protests have at times gotten violent, with buildings across various cities burned down, and also with live fire used by security services to quell the unrest. Last week hardliners in parliament demanded that authorities take a harsher stance in order to finally halt the so-called “anti-hijab” demonstrations.

A majority of the members of Iran’s parliament last week formally requested that the judiciary “deal decisively with the perpetrators of these crimes [the protests] and with all those who assisted in the crimes and provoked rioters.”

This as the death toll has grown into the hundreds – though the government says the police and security services side has suffered scores of casualties. The BBC reports that “At least 326 protesters, including 43 children and 25 women, have been killed in a violent crackdown by security forces, according to Iran Human Rights.”

But it seems the judiciary has taken the criticism from parliament to heart, as it has handed down its first execution sentence for alleged protest-related crimes. According to Al Jazeera

The Iranian judiciary said late on Sunday that an unnamed individual has been sentenced to execution for “setting fire to a government center, disturbing public order and collusion for committing crimes against national security” in addition to “moharebeh” (waging war against God) and “corruption on Earth”.

Five more unnamed people, who authorities described as “rioters” – a word the government uses to describe the ongoing protests and those participating in them – were handed between five and 10 years in prison on national security-related charges.

More such extreme penalties are expected, given that Tehran officials have long accused the protest movement of being fueled by Iran’s enemies such as Israeli and US intelligence, hence the charge of “collusion for committing crimes against national security.” 

President Biden and the White House have spurred on the protests, saying that the US stands on the “side of the Iranian people”.

Early this month at a Democratic campaign event in California, Biden said, “Don’t worry, we’re gonna free Iran. They’re gonna free themselves pretty soon.” Iranian officials have meanwhile taken these and similar statements as evidence of an externally driven regime change operation.

Following news of an Iranian court issuing a death sentence for a demonstrator, the White House condemned the disturbing development, with Jake Sullivan stating from the G20 in Bali, “We are deeply concerned about reports from Iran of mass arrests, sham trials, and now a death sentence for protesters voicing legitimate demands against a government that systematically denies basic dignity and freedom to its people.”

END

UKRAINE//RUSSIA/USA

Biden unveils $37 billion more in emergency Ukraine aid which will circle back to the USA democrats.  The problem: the do not have FTX to launder the funds

(zerohedge)

Biden Unveils $37BN More In Emergency Ukraine Aid On Heels Of Polish Border ‘Attack’

TUESDAY, NOV 15, 2022 – 06:30 PM

At the close of a wild roller-coaster of a day following the alleged “Russian missile attack” on a Polish border town, and despite little to nothing in the way of official confirmation of just what happened or whodunnit, and urgent phone calls flying between Western heads of state pledging “solidarity” – it’s perfect timing for the US to shovel out another nearly $40 billion to Ukraine…

“President Joe Biden is asking Congress to provide more than $37 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine, a massive infusion of cash that could help support the nation as Russian forces suffer battlefield losses in their nine-month-old invasion,” Reuters is reporting late in the day. 

Biden unveiled the proposed massive aid infusion while at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. It was also announced just as President Biden held a phone call with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda following the explosion in the village of Przewodów.

Biden offered Poland “full U.S support for and assistance with Poland’s investigation” and “reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to NATO,” according to a call readout. The two leaders also vowed to remain in “close touch to determine appropriate next steps as the investigation proceeds.”

According to a breakdown of the fresh aid proposed for Ukraine, it includes “$21.7 billion for military, intelligence and other defense support, $14.5 billion in humanitarian aid and to help keep the Ukrainian government functioning, $900 million for health care and support services for Ukrainians living in the U.S. and $626 million for nuclear security support to Ukraine and for modernizing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.”

This follows Ukraine’s President Zelensky urging more, more, more weapons and funding, especially missiles, artillery shells, and anti-air defense systems. 

According to more from Reuters, “Shalanda Young, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said that more than three-fourths of the $40 billion approved by Congress earlier this year for Ukraine has already been disbursed or committed.”

The precise figure of what the Biden administration is now asking anew totals $37.7 billion in support. 

While there likely won’t be an invoking of Article 5 over Tuesday’s events, whatever bottlenecks that currently exist in terms of getting Ukraine more defense aid is likely to be loosened up after this.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES.

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

GLOBAL ISSUES:  FOOD INFLATION//SHORTAGES IN GENERAL

end

end 

PAUL ALEXANDER

Open in app or online

AUSTRALIA, URGENT: Australian government says vaccine risk too high for people under 30 (MIKE CAMPBELL), the Australian government says the risk of myocarditis from a COVID booster might be greater

than COVID itself, it won’t allow people under 30 to get a fourth vaccine; so what the hell? what about those under 40 and 30 who were mandated to take it? Always told it was SAFE & EFFECTIVE; LIES???

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 15
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

𝙍𝙄𝙎𝙀𝙈𝙀𝙇𝘽𝙊𝙐𝙍𝙉𝙀 @riseupandresist

Aus The Govt says it will advise Under 30s 𝙉𝙊𝙏 𝙏𝙊 take The 4th Shot due to the Increased events of Myocarditis…To late for the 𝙐𝙣𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙪𝙣𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝘾𝙤𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙨 who were told it was 𝙎𝙖𝙛𝙚 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙀𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚…

Image

9:20 AM ∙ Nov 13, 20224,936Likes2,831Retweets

Did the Australian government lie to its people all along, for we knew 1.5 years ago and reported this, that the vaccine was not safe, not effective, and very dangerous for younger persons and not just males, but females too! Especially the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA gene injection vaccine.

SOURCE


 

VACCINE IMPACT

New York Federal Reserve Bank Announces Test of Digital Dollar with Major Banks

November 15, 2022 6:20 pm

Here we go. In just one week since the fall of FTX and the upheaval of the private cryptocurrency world, the New York Federal Reserve announced today that it was starting a trial run of a “digital dollar” with several major banks. I expect that the plans to move towards a Central Bank Digital Currency will pick up speed now, using the FTX scandal as an excuse to start regulating all digital currency. This is another step towards The Great Reset.

Read More…


Pfizer And Moderna To Investigate Their Own Vaccines For Myocarditis Risks

November 15, 2022 6:32 pm

Why is Big Pharma investigating their own covid vaccines for myocarditis side effects if the vaccines were already supposedly tested and proven safe and effective? Both Pfizer and Moderna have announced that they will be undertaking studies to determine the longer term risks of Myocarditis (an inflammatory condition of the heart which can lead to death) for people who have been injected with the mRNA based covid vaccines.  The decision comes after the release of multiple medical studies which show a correlation and causation between the vaccines and an exponential increase in heart problems, specifically among men 40 years old and younger.  Only a year ago the link between covid vaccinations and myocarditis was widely denied.  Studies also show that myocarditis risk increases with the number of boosters a person has taken.

Read More…

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY/

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News
WEF Tries to Cover-Up Links to FTX as Ukraine Money Laundering ExposedThe World Economic Forum and its powerful allies are trying to cover up their links to FTX as the recently-imploded cryptocurrency exchange’s money laundering operation in Ukraine has been exposed.READ MORE
Marjorie Taylor Greene Humiliates Liz Cheney: ‘I Just Want to Thank Harriet Hageman for Kicking Your A**’Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has humiliated Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) by thanking her challenger Harriet Hageman for “kicking” the outgoing congresswoman’s “a**”READ MORE
Casey Anthony Breaks Silence, Blames Father for Daughter Caylee’s Death and ‘Cover Up’Casey Anthony is finally breaking her silence and blaming her father George Anthony for her daughter’s death.READ MORE
Lauren Boebert Puts Pelosi Out to Pasture, Says Firing the Speaker Will Be ‘That Much Sweeter’Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) has declared that the delays in her midterm election results will only “make firing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House that much sweeter.”READ MORE
Tulsi Gabbard Lands New Job at Fox News, Slams Biden for Choosing to ‘Attack Half the Country’After recently telling the Democratic Party to go pound sand, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) is joining Fox News as a paid contributor.READ MORE
FTX Scandal Deepens as Details of Fraud and Regulatory Neglect EmergeFollowing the implosion of cryptocurrency company FTX last week, details are still emerging that reveal fraud and regulatory neglect as the scandal deepens.READ MORE
‘Yellowstone’ Puts Hollywood on Notice, Breaks Ratings Record with Season 5 PremiereThe hit anti-woke show Yellowstone has put Hollywood on notice yet again and set another ratings record with its fifth season premiere.READ MORE
Bodycam Footage Proves Paul Pelosi Opened Door for Police, Contradicting DOJ’s ClaimsNewly emerged police bodycam footage proves that Paul Pelosi opened the door of his San Francisco home to responding officers, directly contacting the claims by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).READ MORE
JD Vance Overrules Media: ‘Our Party Needs President Trump’s Leadership’J.D. Vance has overruled the talking heads in the corporate media by warning that President Donald Trump is not to blame for the GOP underperforming in the midterms.READ MORE
Maricopa Election Officials Launched PAC to Stop MAGA Candidates in MidtermsNew details have begun to emerge that reveal top election officials in Arizona’s Maricopa County launched a political action committee (PAC) that sought to stop MAGA candidates from winning in the midterms.READ MORE
Big Pharma to Investigate Own Covid Shots for Heart Failure RiskBig Pharma companies are launching investigations into their own Covid shots to determine the long-term risks of heart failure in those who have received the vaccines.READ MORE
Democrat Katie Hobbs Defeats Kari Lake in Arizona Gov Election, Will Likely Go to RecountArizona’s gubernatorial election has been called for Democrat Katie Hobbs, dealing a defeat for Republican candidate Kari Lake.READ MORE
Ben Carson Calls on Fellow Doctors: Stop Giving Sex-Change Treatments to ChildrenRenowned neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson has called on his fellow doctors across America to stop giving life-altering sex-change treatments to children.READ MORE

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

Michael Every on the day’s most important events:

END

7.OIL ISSUES/USA AND THE WORLD/NATURAL GAS/DIESEL ETC

Israel

Israel will not be a happy camper with this:  Iranian drone hits Israeli tanker 

(zerohedge)

Crude Prices Jump After Israeli Tanker Hit By Iranian Drone Off Oman Coast

WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 07:26 AM

Crude prices are higher Wednesday morning after a bomb-carrying drone on Tuesday evening struck an oil tanker owned by an Israeli billionaire, The Associated Press reported.

The Liberian-flagged oil tanker Pacific Zircon was approximately 150 miles off the Omani coast at 730 pm local time when a “projectile” hit the vessel, a Mideast-based defense official told AP.  AP said the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations was notified about the attack and is monitoring shipping lanes in the region. 

“We are aware of an incident and it’s being investigated at this time,” UKMTO said. 

Also, the commander of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, Timothy Hawkins, was briefed on the incident, according to Reuters.  

Brent crude prices, which were down before the news, jumped and traded above $94 a barrel.

In a statement, Pacific Zircon’s owner Eastern Pacific Shipping, which Israeli billionaire Idan Ofer owns, said the vessel was hauling diesel when it was “hit by a projectile … there were no reports of injuries or pollution.” 

“All crew are safe and accounted for. There is some minor damage to the vessel’s hull but no spillage of cargo or water ingress,” the Singapore- based Eastern Pacific said. 

Bloomberg cited a report via the Israeli Public Broadcasting Company (KAN) that said unidentified Israeli officials pointed the finger at Iran for the drone attack. Tracking data shows the vessel is off the Omani coast. 

“While no one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, suspicion immediately fell on Iran. Tehran and Israel have been engaged in a yearslong shadow war in the wider Middle East, with some drone attacks targeting Israeli-associated vessels traveling around the region,” AP noted. 

Torbjorn Soltvedt, an analyst at the risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, explained, “the risk of attacks against shipping and energy infrastructure in the wider region is rising mainly due to the lack of progress in U.S.-Iranian nuclear diplomacy and the decision by Washington to apply further sanctions pressure on Iran.” 

Soltvedt continued: “Since 2019, Iran has consistently responded to new US sanctions with covert military action in the region.”

He added: “There is not just an increased risk of disruptive attacks against energy infrastructure in the region, but also a growing risk of a wider military confrontation with more serious consequences for world energy markets.”

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0423 UP    0.0065 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED

USA/ YEN 139.34  UP  0.377 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//

GBP/USA 1.1909 UP   0.0031

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 14.10 PTS OR 0.45% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 86,64 POINTS OR 0.47% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.25%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 86,64 PTS OR 0.47%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.10 PTS OR .45%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  0.25% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 38.13 OR  0.14%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1780.95

silver:$21.83

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 105.91 DOWN .39 POINTS from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.97% DOWN 7  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.239% UP 0AND 3/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.022%// DOWN 11 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.93  DOWN 11   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +2.006%  DOWN 10 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0382  UP  .0033   or 33 basis points//

USA/Japan: 139.52 UP 0.562 OR YEN DOWN 56 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.18758 DOWN  .0022 OR  22 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar  DOWN .0032 OR 32 BASIS pts  to 1.3305

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN) AT 7.0818

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.1053

TURKISH LIRA:  18.62  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.239

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 IN basis points from MONDAY at  3.736% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield  3.916  DOWN 7  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 106.22 DOWN .08 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

(1/2 HOUR BEFORE CLOSING)

London: CLOSED DOWN 22.31 PTS OR  0.30%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 167.09 POINTS OR 1.30%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 46.15PTS OR 0.16% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 89.50 OR  1.09%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 153.57 PTS OR  0.62%

WTI Oil price 85.04 12: EST

Brent Oil:  92.68   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   UP TO:  60.26// ROUBLE UP 0  AND 14/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.006

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.1865

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0367 UP .0046    OR  46  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1870 UP  .01183 or  118 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.3165% 

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 139.05     DOWN 1.038//YEN UP 104 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3266 UP 0.0058  (CDN dollar, UP 58 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 86.79

Brent OIL:  93.67

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS pts to 3.796%

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 9 BASIS PTS to 4.068%

USA dollar index:106.26 DOWN 28 POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.61

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.40  UP 0 AND  15/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 56.22 PTS OR 0.17 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 170.21 PTS OR 1.45%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 24.30 UP 0.57 PTS (2.40)%

GLD: $165.50 UP 0.58 OR 0.35%

SLV/ $19.88  DOWN $0.236OR 1.18%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

END

USA ELECTION RESULTS:

EARLY MORNING TRADING

ii) USA DATA

US Retail Sales Soar In October; Gasoline Sales Spike

WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 08:39 AM

Analysts expected a strong bump in retail sales in October (+1.0% MoM) with BofA expecting an even stronger surge thanks to California’s stimmy checks.

BofA was right but even they under-estimated the gains as Retail sales rose 1.3% MoM – the biggest jump since February 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Core retail sales data also outperformed (Ex-Autos +1.3% MoM v +0.5% exp) and Ex-Autos and Gas +0.9% (v +0.2% exp).

Electronics and appliance stores saw sales slow, but Gasoline, Autos, and Food sales surged…

Finally, while not comparing apples to apples directly, adjusting the nominal value of retail sales for CPI gives us a better idea of just how strong the American consumers’ spending demand is up 0.87% MoM (the biggest jump since January)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 4.1% surge in gasoline sales is intriguing given that we have seen volume demand sinking significantly so we would not be getting too excited about this print as a representation of a ‘strong consumer’ too soon… especially given the impact of California’s stimmy checks.

end

Not good/Industrial production

(zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Unexpectedly Contracts In October, Capacity Utilization Slows

WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 09:22 AM

US Industrial Production unexpectedly fell 0.1% MoM in October – the biggest drop since Dec 2021 and less than the expected 0.1% MoM jump. Additionally, September’s 0.4% MoM rise was revised drastically lower to just 0.1% MoM.

That is the 4th monthly decline in the last 6 months and the slowest YoY rise since January.

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturing output rose 0.1% MoM (half the expected 0.2% rise).

  • Utilities fell 1.5% in Oct. after falling 1.7% in Sept.
  • Mining fell 0.4% in Oct. after rising 0.7% in Sept.

Notably, Capacity Utilization dropped back below 80% (79.875%)…

Not exactly the “strong as hell” recovery we were told about.

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.

TEXAS

Abbott invokes the invasion clause and takes measures!!

(zerohedge)

“Invasion Clause” Triggered In Texas As Migrants Overwhelm Border

TUESDAY, NOV 15, 2022 – 06:55 PM

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has invoked the state’s “Invasion Clauses” to take measures against a record-setting influx of migrants who are illegally crossing the border.

“I invoked the Invasion Clauses of the U.S. & Texas Constitutions to fully authorize Texas to take unprecedented measures to defend our state against an invasion,” Abbott tweeted Tuesday morning.

As part of the action, Abbott plans to;

  • Deploy the National Guard to safeguard the border, and to repel and turn back immigrants trying to cross the border illegally
  • Deploy the Texas Dept. of Public Safety (DPS) to arrest and return immigrants to the border who crossed illegally, and to arrest illegal immigrants for criminal activity;
  • Build a wall in multiple counties on the border;
  • Deploy gun boats;
  • Designate Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations;
  • Enter into a compact with other states to secure the border;
  • Enter into agreements with foreign powers to enhance border security;
  • Provide resources for border counties to increase their efforts to respond to the “border invasion.”

As Breitbart News notes;

The move by the Texas governor comes after back-to-back record years of migrant border apprehensions following changes in policies by the Biden administration. Official reports from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show the apprehension of more than 2.2 million migrants in the just ended Fiscal Year 2022 and nearly 1.7 million in Fiscal Year 2021. During the last full year of the Trump administration agents apprehended only 400,000 migrants.

Nearly two-thirds of migrant apprehensions occur in the five Texas-based Border Patrol sectors, according to reports from CBP. This amounts to 1.26 million migrants in FY22.

The governor’s order on Tuesday represents the next step in an increasing response to the lack of action by the federal government to secure the U.S.-Mexico border — particularly in Texas.

“Since President Biden took office over a year ago, his dangerous open border policies have created an ongoing crisis along our southern border, with a 61-year record-high of illegal immigrants surging into our state smuggled by the cartels, along with deadly drugs like fentanyl, weapons, and other contraband,” Governor Abbott’s spokesperson Renae Eze told Breitbart in April. “Texas border communities and local officials are overwhelmed and overrun by the historic levels of illegal crossings, and President Biden has turned a blind eye to their suffering.”

END

Trump announces his 2024 run for President.

(zerohedge)

Trump Announces 2024 Run For President

TUESDAY, NOV 15, 2022 – 08:25 PM

Former President Donald Trump has formally filed a statement of candidacy for a 2024 presidential bid, and will make an announcement live Tuesday night.

According to polls, he will immediately become the front-runner for the Republican nomination despite last week’s lack of a “red wave” during the midterm election – after which Democrats held the Senate and lost the House by a much smaller-than-anticipated number.

END

Now it is blue chip Disney reporting huge layoffs after billions in operating losses

(zerohedge)

Get Woke, Go Broke: Disney To Lay Off Employees After Billions In Operating Losses

TUESDAY, NOV 15, 2022 – 09:00 PM

The company that once defined family entertainment is going from media giant to epic failure, suffering over $1.4 billion in streaming losses and a stock drop of around 39% for the year.  And, it would appear that these financial declines are inevitably leading to employee layoffs.

Disney has put a freeze on hiring, it is limited employee travel and is also reviewing workers for efficiency with plans to introduce cuts as a means to make the company “more nimble.”  CEO Bob Chapek noted in a leaked memo to senior staff:

“As we work through this evaluation process, we will look at every avenue of operations and labor to find savings, and we do anticipate some staff reductions as part of this review.

…I am fully aware this will be a difficult process for many of you and your teams. We are going to have to make tough and uncomfortable decisions.”

Chapek mentions in the same memo the problem of “macroeconomic factors” out of Disney’s control.  He does not, however, mention his habit of bending the knee and groveling to woke activists, attempting to sabotage Florida’s anti-grooming legislation for public schools, or the company’s steady supply of content that pushes far-left narratives. 

It is not so much the “macroeconomic factors out of Disney’s control” that are causing the conglomerate’s downfall.  Rather, it is all the factors within their control, including their refusal to produce content that consumers actually want.  American audiences are done with leftist propaganda in their films and television and are now actively researching and avoiding any content that promotes woke ideology and social justice talking points.  After around five years of consumers withholding their money, Disney is finally starting to feel the pain.

This is what happens when a company markets its products to a tiny minority of leftist activists and LGBT fanatics, most of whom have very little money to spend anyway.  Specifically, parents are concerned with Disney’s “family entertainment” evolving to focus on LGBT characters, being that LGBT concepts are purely sexual in nature and far outside of the understanding of the average child.  Highlighting the obscure sexuality of characters within a children’s production is a bizarre notion.       

Furthermore, the company’s hostility towards Florida’s Parental Rights In Education bill, which makes it illegal for public school teachers to groom young children with sexualized concepts and gender ideology, raises questions among consumers about Disney’s agenda in entertainment.

It is therefore no surprise that the company is now floundering, with a vast array of politically motivated box office bombs and streaming disasters that struggle to bring in even moderate viewership.  Though they will never openly admit it, ultimately, Disney proves yet again that going woke also means going broke. 

END

USA/PORT ISSUES//

Now the LA Port head says October was the quietest month since 2009

(zerohedge)

LA Port Head Says October Was ‘Quietest’ Month Since 2009

TUESDAY, NOV 15, 2022 – 10:00 PM

About a year ago, there was a massive queue outside two of America’s biggest ports, located on the West Coast. Now, the ports are coming to a crawl during the peaking shipping season, ahead of the busiest shopping period of the year. 

There’s no longer a massive amount of container ships outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, which handle 40% of all cargo containers entering the country. 

According to Gene Seroka, head of the Port of Los Angeles, the backlog has all but dissipated. In an online briefing, he said the Port of LA had the quietest October since 2009. 

Together, LA and Long Beach are the main seaport gateway into the US economy from China. The quietest October since the GFC is sign retailers and manufacturers have slowed or stopped ordering from overseas due to either high inventories or collapsing demand. 

Seroka’s comment Tuesday is another piece to the puzzle of an emerging global slowdown: 

We predict in May that an inventory glut, i.e., the reverse bullwhip effect, would cool the booming freight market. It’s peak shipping season — retailers have already canceled overseas orders as freight companies reduce shipping capacity ahead of Black Friday and Christmas. 

Companies across the board are bloated with inventories. This can be shown in the inventory-to-sales ratio, reaching multi-decade highs — forcing importers to reduce shipments from overseas suppliers. 

As importers are stuck with inventory, they have reduced orders, which has led to a plunge in container spot rates. Even to the extent that major shipping companies are canceling sails

Some of the largest shipping companies, such as US shipper FedEx and Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S have parked planes and canceled sails as economic storm clouds gather worldwide. 

And as world trade stumbles, another problem has emerged: a massive container glut at ports

end

Next on the list to implode: Target

Stock of Target tumbles after they cut guidance. They warn that consumers are pulling back on spending.  Actually no, they are just running out of money

(zerohedge)

Target Tumbles After Cutting Guidance, Warns Consumers Are Pulling Back On Spending

WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 08:26 AM

One day after stellar earnings from Walmart sent the stock of the world’s largest traditional retailer soaring, Target spoiled the party when it reported that consumers had pulled back on their spending in recent weeks, sapping sales and profits in the latest quarter and “putting a cloud over its holiday season” as the WSJ put it.

Both sales and earnings missed consensus as well as Target’s own forecasts while sales growth lagged behind larger rival Walmart. Also unlike Walmart which boosted its Q4 and full year guidance, Target executives lowered their financial goals for the holiday quarter “in light of an increasingly challenging environment.”

Here is a snapshot of Q3 earnings:

  • Sales $26.12 billion, +3.3% y/y, missing estimate $26.38 billion
    • Comparable sales +2.7% vs. +12.7% y/y, estimate +2.51%
    • Comp digital sales +0.3% vs. +28.9% y/y, estimate +3.25%
    • Store comparable sales +3.2% vs. +9.7% y/y, estimate +1.77%
    • Stores originated sales 82.9% vs. 82.4% y/y, estimate 82%
  • Gross margin 24.7% vs. 28% y/y, estimate 25.6%
  • Adjusted EPS $1.54 vs. $3.03 y/y, estimate $2.15
  • Ebit $1.03 billion, -49% y/y
  • Ebitda $1.71 billion, -36% y/y, estimate $2.04 billion

Some more details:

  • Customer transactions +1.4% vs. +12.9% y/y
  • Average transaction amount +1.3% vs. -0.2% y/y, estimate +0.17% (2 estimates)
  • Digital sales as share of total sales 17.1% vs. 17.6% y/y
  • Total stores 1,941, +0.9% y/y, estimate 1,950
  • Operating margin 3.9% vs. 7.8% y/y, estimate 5.35%
  • SG&A expense $5.22 billion, +7.4% y/y, estimate $5.1 billion
  • Operating income $1.02 billion, -49% y/y, estimate $1.36 billion

Looking ahead, this quarter, Target projected a drop in comparable sales, the first decline in five years, and the CEO warned sales trends weakened sharply last month and the company is seeking up to $3 billion in cost cuts but no layoffs.

While the quarterly earnings were subpar, much more ominously Target executives said that sales and profit trends worsened in October and November with guests’ shopping behaviors increasingly affected by inflation, rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. Executives also said consumers are waiting to purchase items until they spot a deal, buying smaller pack sizes and giving priority to family needs. Sales of food, beverage, beauty products and seasonal items were strong, they said.

“Clearly it’s an environment where consumers have been stressed,” said Target Chief Executive Brian Cornell on a call with reporters. “We know they are spending more dollars on food and beverage and household essentials, and as they are shopping for discretionary categories they are looking for promotions.”

Retailers are facing an increasingly uncertain holiday season with high food and gas prices pinching some households. Target, like many of its peers, has been discounting to try to clear out a glut of goods this summer. Target’s inventory rose 14.4% in the October quarter from a year ago, while its revenue rose 3.4%. Quarterly net income tumbled by half.

Walmart gets over half of its U.S. revenue from groceries, while Target’s business is more skewed toward discretionary categories such as home goods, apparel, electronics and beauty products. And as consumers absorb higher prices on core staples, many are pulling back spending where they can.

As the WSJ notes, Target said it is gaining market share in its five main categories, even as consumers pull back spending in some cases. Traffic to stores increased 1.4% in the most recent quarter. Shockingly, the company also revealed that so far this year, Target has lost over $400 million in goods due to shrink, the industry term for theft and other product loss. “We’ve seen that trend has grown over the course of the year,” he said.

Target shares dropped 13% in premarket trading on the earnings, which came in well below Wall Street’s estimates. It is the second time this year the retailer has misjudged consumer demand—in the spring executives said they were surprised by shifts away from furniture and appliances.

Other retailers such as Best Buy and Macy’s also slumped pre-market, dragging S&P 500 futures lower. Target will add to fears about the health of US consumers. Some of Walmart’s strength came from higher-income shoppers trading down, and there’s been a shift to groceries from general merchandise. Retail stocks face further pressure from higher rates amid tighter credit and skyrocketing housing costs. Today’s October retail sales are forecast to rise 1% m/m, but as we warned last night, the number will overstate consumer strength due to a one-time stimmy in California.

end

Now Micron slides after cutting wafer starts by 20% and slashing future Cap ex

(zerohedge)

Micron Slides After Cutting Wafer Starts By 20%, Slashing CapEx; Drags Chipmakers Lower

WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 09:27 AM

As the global recession starts to accelerate, we are seeing not only mass layoffs…

… first mostly among tech companies and soon everywhere else…

… but also companies realizing that demand they have budgeted for 2023 will not materialize. We just saw earlier today with Target which plunged after slashing its guidance and warning of a sharp slowing in consumer spending in recent weeks, and moments ago we saw that in an entirely different industry, when chipmaking giant Micron Technology said it was slashing capex by reducing DRAM and NAND wafer starts by about 20% versus 4Q 2022 in response to market conditions.

The company said that it is “these reductions will be made across all technology nodes where Micron has meaningful output” and added that Micron is also working toward additional capex cuts. In calendar 2023, Micron now expects its year-on-year bit supply growth to be negative for DRAM, and in the single-digit percentage range for NAND.

“Micron is taking bold and aggressive steps to reduce bit supply growth to limit the size of our inventory. We will continue to monitor industry conditions and make further adjustments as needed,” said Micron President and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra. “Despite the near-term cyclical challenges, we remain confident in the secular demand drivers for our markets, and in the long term, expect memory and storage revenue growth to outpace that of the rest of the semiconductor industry.”

The chipmaker elaborates that recently, “the market outlook for calendar 2023 has weakened” and adds that “in order to significantly improve total inventory in the supply chain, Micron believes that in calendar 2023, year-on-year DRAM bit supply will need to shrink and NAND bit supply growth will need to be significantly lower than previous estimates.”

The news hammered MU stock, which dropped as much as 6% before rebounding modestly.

Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were among semiconductor companies that were dragged lower in sympathy; both NVDA and AMD slid as much as -2.4% as realization the coming recession will further cripple demand across the semis space.

SWAMP STORIES

What a crook!

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wefs-klaus-schwab-gives-speech-g20-need-restructure-world

WEF’s Klaus Schwab Gives Speech To G20 On The “Need To Restructure The World”

WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 03:00 AM

Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum find themselves waiting around for the next global crisis event after the covid pandemic turned out to be much less threatening to the public than they had originally hoped.  In the meantime, Schwab continues to pontificate on the virtues of the “Great Reset” and the usefulness of crisis as a means to accomplish a “restructuring” of the current world order.

The restructuring that the WEF obsesses over is a global socialist system based on Schwab’s concepts of the 4th Industrial Revolution, the Shared Economy and Stakeholder Capitalism (corporate governance).  He does not say much in terms of planning in his speech to the G20, but he does imply that while fragmentation is necessary, too much fragmentation could be troublesome.  In other words, controlled chaos is valuable to the globalist agenda, but uncontrolled chaos would be disastrous for them.

end

A defiant Kari Lake will not give up! She is very good in front of a camera!

Zerohedge.com/political/arizonans-know-bs-when-they-see-it-lake-defiant-ap-calls-gov-race-hobbs

“Arizonans Know BS When They See It” – Lake Defiant As AP Calls Gov Race For Hobbs

WEDNESDAY, NOV 16, 2022 – 07:00 AM

After Arizona’s Monday evening ballot-counting updates, Associated Press and other outlets declared that Democrat Katie Hobbs has defeated Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake in the state’s gubernatorial election. 

Though Lake trailed from the outset of Arizona’s pathetically prolonged ballot-counting exercise, she and her campaign fostered hopes that — as Maricopa’s tallies increasingly reflected Republican-dominated Phoenix suburbs and exurbs — Lake would storm back and win the race. 

While Lake did indeed win a majority of those votes, it was only enough to trim Hobbs’ lead to 19,382 votes. With 98% of the expected vote tallied, Hobbs — a former social worker and Arizona’s current Secretary of State — leads 50.4% to 49.6%. All that’s left to count in Maricopa are ballots requiring manual scrutiny because of defects. 

In the wake of the race being called for Hobbs, Lake struck a defiant tone on Twitter: 

Arizonans know BS when they see it.— Kari Lake (@KariLake) November 15, 2022

The victory for Hobbs — who refused to debate Lake  — comes three days after incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly held off Blake Masters in the state’s closely-watched U.S. Senate race. It also results in flipping the governorship, which is currently held by term-limited Republican Doug Ducey.

The former Republican stronghold now has Democrats dominating the top statewide offices: 

When @katiehobbs is sworn into office in January, it will be the first time since 1950 that Democrats have held the governor’s office and both of Arizona’s Senate seats— Jeremy Duda (@jeremyduda) November 15, 2022

Republicans did manage to flip two Arizona House districts, and the state’s nine-member delegation in the next session will consist of six Republicans and three Democrats. 

Arizona’s U.S. House districts: 6 Republicans and 3 Democrats (via NBC)

In another AP call, Arizona voters narrowly approved a proposition giving all Arizona high-school graduates in-state tuition rates at public colleges, to include grads who are in the United States illegally. 

Lake was a 22-year news anchor at a Fox affiliate in Phoenix. During her campaign, that experience gave her enormous confidence in front of cameras, where she reveled in roasting and ridiculing those still working in her former field:

Zerohedge.com/political/arizonans-know-bs-when-they-see-it-lake-defiant-ap-calls-gov-race-hobbs

KING REPORT

The King Report November 16, 2022 Issue 6888Independent View of the News
@NewsBecker: Fox’s Peter Doocy: “The breaking news would be President Biden is missing the G20 leaders’ dinner. We don’t know what’s exactly going on with President, they called an early lid.”
https://twitter.com/NewsBecker/status/1592497515546300421
 
The Big Guy reportedly returned to this hotel room at 8 pm Bali time, missing the gala G20 dinner.  The Big Guy told reporters on Monday that he had a cold and has tested negative for Covid.
 
@t1alpha: “We’re hearing from our friends in the hedge fund community that many funds, especially in multistrategy firms like Millenium, were shut down and unwoundWith many of the most shorted stocks up 15-30%, it’s hard to ignore the obvious fingerprint of forced unwinds.”
https://twitter.com/t1alpha/status/1592167195353968640
 
Walmart surged 7.2% after reporting EPS of 1.50 (1.32 consensus) and revenue of $152.81B (+8.7% y/y, $146.8 exp.).  WMT said consolidated net sales for the year will grow 5.5% or 6.5% excluding divestitures.  CEO Doug McMillion said Walmart has “significantly improved” its inventory problem.  Inventories are now +12.4% for Q3; they were +25.6% in Q2.  WMT expects EPS to decline 6% to 7% from earlier guidance of -9% to -11%.  Walmart authorized a $20B share buyback.
 
@CNBCi: Biden and Xi meeting at the G-20 summit marks ‘a very significant step’ in U.S.-China relations, said Xiaolin Chen, head of international at KraneShares
https://twitter.com/CNBCi/status/1592578179583049730
 
The usual suspects hyped the routine Xi-Biden meeting as a Pivot in the US-Chinese relationship.  We’re not making this up!  The latest delusion induced manic buying of Chinese stocks.
 
Chinese Stocks in US Soar, Heading for Best Month on Record.
The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index of 65 Chinese stocks jumped as much as 8.5% shortly after the open…
    Investors see warmer ties between the world’s two largest economies after Xi Jinping and Joe Biden’s meeting at the Group of 20 summit, boosting the outlook for trade. At the same time, China’s supportive measures to its ailing property sector and the loosening of some Covid restrictions have given investors other reasons to cheer… https://www.yahoo.com/now/chinese-stocks-us-soar-heading-153458443.html
 
US October PPI 0.2% m/m and 8% y/y; 0.4% and 8.3% expected; Core PPI unchanged m/m and 6.7% y/y, +0.3% and 7.2% expected.
 
(Phil Fed Pres) Harker Sees Pace of Rate Hikes Slowing in Coming Months
“But I want to be clear: A rate hike of 50 basis points would still be significant,” he added… The Philly Fed head re-affirmed the central bank’s commitment to bringing down inflation. “Our resolve is strong, and our goal of stable prices and maximum employment is achievable,” he said…
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3905629-philly-feds-harker-sees-rate-hike-pace-slowing-in-coming-months
 
Federal Reserve’s balance sheet may see $2.5T overall reduction, Fed’s Harker says
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3908052-federal-reserves-balance-sheet-may-see-25t-overall-reduction-feds-harker-says
 
 
US Household Debt Jumps Most Since 2008 Even as Card Rates Surge
Households added $351 billion in overall debt last quarter, taking the total to $16.5 trillion, according to…  the Federal Reserve of New York…  That’s an increase of 8.3% from a year earlier, the most since a 9.1% jump in the first quarter of 2008. (What happened next?)  The debt figures aren’t adjusted for inflation… (US Nominal GDP is $25.663 trillion.  Consumer debt is 64.3% of Nom GDP.)
 
A senior U.S. intelligence official says Russian (2) missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people – AP  https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/nation-world/story/2022-11-15/a-senior-u-s-intelligence-official-says-russian-missiles-crossed-into-nato-member-poland-killing-two-people
 
@WarMonitor3: Polish PM Morawiecki convened the emergency meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security & Defense Affairs.” 13:14 ET
 
@sumlenny: Russian missiles hit Polish Przewodow directly at the electricity power line which connects the EU with Ukraine, close to Dobrotvirska power plant in Ukraine, an important energy hub. Map: courtesy of ENTSO-E, the EU organization of electricity network operators…
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1592616005851054080
    Expect that the Russians will FLOOD the info space with all possible „versions“: Ukrainian air defense, NATO conspiracy, explosion of a military transport, etc., all “proved“ with “leaked documents“, interviews“, “photos“. They did exactly this with MH17. Aim: disrupt discussion
    Most probably it was not an accident. The Russians are testing our response. They are in a win-in game: if they hit the power line, they strangle Ukraine. If not they say it was not they / it was an accident and see how fast we react and where are the weak spots in our reaction.
 
ESZs slowly but methodically plodded higher from the Asian open until they jumped higher at 7:21 on Walmart’s great results.  ESZs surged on the good PPI Report but they peaked (4050.75) one minute after the 8:30 October PPI release.  ESZs and stocks then stair-stepped lower until 11:00 ET.  After a modest rally, ESZs and stocks staged a small rally into the European close.
 
ESZs and stocks rolled over after Europe closed; they tumbled after AP reported that a Russian missile killed two people in Poland.  Gold, US bonds, and oil jumped higher.  Would WWIII induce a Fed Pivot?
 
Despite the missile strike in Poland, a rally began at 13:40 ET.  Traders wanted to game the final day of trading for VIX November options.  ESZs jumped 22.75 from 14:04 ET to 14:12 ET.  ESZs rallied another 6 handles by 14:20 ET.  ESZs then rolled over until the final-hour upward manipulation appeared.  ESZs hit a peak of 4009.00 at 15:24 ET.  ESZs and stocks eased lower into the close.
 
@dougboneparth: Stocks remain positive on WW3 fears.  (Once again, behold the power of expiration!)
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks rallied early on Walmart and a good US October PPI; bonds rallied almost one point
 
Negative aspects of previous session
ESZs and stocks peaked at 8:31 ET; they sank on the Russia missile strike in Poland
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What killed two people in Poland?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3991.31
Previous session High/Low4028.84; 3953.17
 
Key House investigator fears feds used grants as hush money to keep COVID origins quiet
Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) said, “Everyone in the medical community backed up Dr. Fauci, and what we now know is they were receiving a lot of grant dollars.”
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/did-feds-use-grants-hush-money-keep-covid-origins-quiet-key-investigator-fears
 
@kylenabecker: So to recap, the intel community knew extremists planned to attack on J6, FBI had embeds with their plans, Trump wanted more security, Pelosi did nothing to up it, D.C. mayor fought it, CP opened doors for them & Trump supporters got framed as ‘insurrectionists.’ Any questions?
 
GOP Gov @GregAbbott_TX: invoked the Invasion Clauses of the U.S. & Texas Constitutions to fully authorize Texas to take unprecedented measures to defend our state against an invasion. I’m using that constitutional authority, & other authorization & Executive Orders to keep our state & country safe:
https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1592553350129909762
 
Rep (CA) Kevin McCarthy has been elected the GOP nominee for Speaker of the House on a 188-31 vote by the House Republican Conference.  The GOP officially captured the House last night.  Fourteen races are still pending – EIGHT days (as of today) after the election!
 
@greg_price11: The House GOP conference just elected Rep. Tom Emmer as their nominee for whip, a RINO with a liberal voting record who was in charge of electing Republicans this cycle.. Unbelievable. Truly unbelievable. The final vote was 115-106 in favor of Emmer, a guy who once served as paid spokesperson for a Soros funded organization seeking to get rid of the electoral college
    In addition to the piss poor job Emmer did, he is also a RINO: He was one of 9 Republicans to block Trump’s ban on transgender soldiers in the military and once voted for bill to strip federal contracts from businesses that don’t allow boys to use the girl’s bathroom…
    Tom Emmer also wants to give green card giveaways so that Big Tech can get more cheap labor from overseas. He also thinks that Republicans should be “extremely happy” with barely getting a majority in what should’ve been a red wave
 
NATO to meet on Wednesday at request of Poland for consultations
NATO ambassadors will meet on Wednesday at the request of Poland on basis of the alliance’s Article 4, two European diplomats told Reuters after an explosion in Poland close to the Ukrainian border reportedly caused by a stray Russian missile. According to article 4 of the alliance’s founding treaty, members can raise any issue of concern, especially related to the security of a member country
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-meet-wednesday-request-poland-consultations-diplomats-2022-11-15/
 
What is NATO’s Article 4?… How does it differ from Article 5?
Article 4 of the NATO treaty covers the case when a member state feels threatened by another country or a terrorist organization. The 30 member states then start formal consultations at the request of the threatened member. The talks look at whether a threat exists and how to counter it, with decisions arrived at unanimously.  Article 4 does not, however, mean that there will be direct pressure to act…
    Article 5 of the NATO Charter… lays out the military assistance by the entire alliance, should one of the member states get attacked. The only time that Article 5 was used was in 2001 after the al-Qaeda attacks on the US, which killed more than 3,000 people…
https://www.dw.com/en/whats-natos-article-4-and-how-does-it-differ-from-article-5/a-60898860
 
Last night, the WH announced that Biden would comment on the missile strike on Poland near 7 ET.
 
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: The White House announced Biden remarks at an emergency roundtable with world leaders — but after group photo, journalist asked if POTUS can give us an update he’s received on Poland.  Exact question: “Mr. President can you tell us what you know so far about the explosion in Poland, sir?” BIDEN: “No.” Travel pool video feed then cut, WH ushered pool out of the room.  It appears Biden was not aware he was slated to give remarks, as the WH announced to press.  (NATO at the brink and Team Biden stages a s#@t show!  Was Biden too ‘sundown’ to respond?)
 
Today is Weird Wednesday and settlement for November VIX options.  This dynamic often makes Weird Wednesday the peak manipulation for expiration.  The desire to manipulate stuff higher into the VIX Fix will be high despite Poland invoking NATO Article 4.  This was evinced by the afternoon rally even though the geopolitical situation has worsened immeasurably.
 
If stocks are strong into the VIX Fix, be alert for a meaningful reversal after the Fix.  Nvidia, a favored trading sardine, is expected to report .70 after the close.  ESZs are -10.00 at 21:00 ET. 
 
Expected economic data: Oct Import Prices -0.4% m/m, +4.2% y/y; Export Prices -0.3% m/m, +7.1% y/y; Oct Industrial Production 0.1% m/m, Mfg Production 0.2%, Capacity Utilization 80.4%; Sept Business Inventories 0.5% m/m; Nov NAHB Housing Market Index 36; NY Fed Pres Williams 9:50 ET, Fed Gov Barr at House 10:00 ET, Fed Gov Waller discusses Economic Outlook 14:35 ET
 
Expected retailer earnings: LOW 3.09, TGT 2.15, TJX .80, BBWI .22
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3794; 100-day MA: 3907; 150-day MA: 3960; 200-day MA: 4076
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,076; 100-day MA: 31,620; 150-day MA: 31,919; 200-day MA: 32,528
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4522.12 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3865.80 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3787.22 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 3953.66 triggers a sell signal
 
DeSantis on Trump and corporate media attacks on him: “One of the things I’ve learned in this job is when you’re leading, when you’re getting things done, you take incoming fire… All that’s just noise.  What really matters is are you leading, are you standing up for folks … I would just tell people to go check out the scoreboard from last Tuesday night.”  https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1592566322948231169
 
@IAPolls2022: 2024 National Republican Primary – Head to Head: Ron DeSantis — 45%; Donald Trump — 43%; Leger, November 11-13, 316 Adults  https://legermarketing.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/upl
 
NBC’s @akarl_smith: Trump-endorsed Gov, Sen and SOS candidates in swing states Biden won
Governors: Lake: L, Mastriano: L, Michels: L, Dixon: L. Lombardo: W, Perdue: L
Senate: Masters: L, Oz: L, Johnson: W, Laxalt: L, Walker: Runoff, Bolduc: L
SOS: Finchem: L, Karamo: L, Marchant: L, Hice: L
 
Record Low 7% of Voters View Mitch McConnell Favorably (Civiqs polling)
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/11/14/record-low-7-voters-view-mitch-mcconnell-favorably/
 
Rick Scott was ‘un-invited’ to GOP leadership presser after announcing challenge to McConnell
Sen. Rick Scott normally attends the weekly Senate GOP leadership pressers as the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/rick-scott-was-un-invited-gop-leadership-presser-after-announcing-challenge
 
@StephenM: A core societal dilemma posed by ballot harvesting is that elections will increasingly be decided by the least engaged and least interested voters. For example, the Election Day votes of parents enraged by Dems pushing pornography at school are easily negated by 1 good harvester.
 
@Cernovich: They are still counting votes in Orange County, California, and Republicans are pulling ahead. Why? Because ballot harvesting was done by Republicans. Sorry no one told you to do this elsewhere.  Except me in 2018 but who is keeping track?
 
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler met with head of FTX months before collapse 
On March 23, some eight months before Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire collapsed and was forced into bankruptcy, Gensler granted what some crypto players are calling an unusual meeting to the then-billionaire and prolific fundraiser for Democratic candidates, including his boss, President Biden…. At issue: A meeting between Bankman-Fried and Gensler where they discussed an idea for a new SEC-approved crypto trading platform…  
    He now finds himself in a peculiar position having to defend himself from attacks by industry executives and Republicans in Congress for missing maybe the biggest debacle in industry history while having a private meeting with the person at the center of it all, the politically connected crypto-bro, Sam Bankman-Fried, known for wearing shorts, donning hoodies and his unkempt hair… https://t.co/ipO0h0NKCj
 
Cryptocurrency billionaire broke the bank for Dems
The shambolic 30-year-old whiz kid… had spent $10 million helping get Biden elected in 2020.  SBF’s mother, Stanford law professor Barbara Fried, also is co-founder of left-wing political action committee Mind The Gap, which has raised a reported $140 million to help Democrats win elections…
    SBF certainly “impacted” the midterms… He donated to committees aligned with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to help Democrats win races.
    He lavished his largesse on “pro-crypto Democrats” like New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who was sponsoring a bill to lock the Securities and Exchange Commission out of regulating the crypto market…
    He also visited the White House, meeting with top Biden adviser Steve Ricchetti on April 22 and May 12… Both Forbes and Fortune had him on the cover. “The next Warren Buffett?” asked Fortune…
    SBF appeared with Bill Clinton and Tony Blair at international crypto summits, and with Tom Brady in glitzy TV ads and social media videos… The sinister neo-socialists at the World Economic Forum (WEF) loved SBF so much, they made FTX a “corporate partner” — but that page on the WEF website has vanished in the last 48 hours, leaving an error message.
    Venture capital firm Sequoia was a big backer… whose chairman and managing partner Michael Moritz is a big donor to the Dems as well as to anti-Trump hate group the Lincoln Project, and reportedly is a neighbor of Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco…
https://nypost.com/2022/11/14/sam-bankman-fried-broke-crypto-bank-for-dems/
 
@bpcostello: Incredible. FTX was amassing a balance-sheet asset being funneled to Democrats under line “Trump lose.” FTX investor Sequoia must have known This is most likely how Griffin, a Sequoia portfolio CEO knows. (also, likely investor in their fund) knows.
https://twitter.com/VentureCoinist/status/1592382030385676289
 
@yesh222: Semi-final numbers, accounting for uncontested races: GOP Congressional candidates in Arizona: +6.3%; Kari Lake ran 7.1% behind Arizona Republicans. Blake Masters ran 11.4% behind AZ Republicans.  Kimberly Yee ran 4.9% ahead of AZ Republicans. Yee ran 16.3% ahead of Masters
 
Kari Lake was doing well until AZ voters tired of her Trump channeling and her inveighing against deceased GOP Sen. John McCain.  The McCain wing of the AZ GOP Party is still significant.
 
@CitizenFreePres: Kari Lake: “We drove a stake through the heart of the McCain Machine.”
https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1556048867686096896
 
Gen Milley, who should have been canned when he called China behind Trump’s back and assumed Commander in Chief responsibilities, is again publicly airing grievances and engaging in duties above his pay grade.
 
NYT’s @peterbakernyt: Milley and Biden aides split over whether to press Ukraine to pursue diplomacy to end the war with Russia, with the general urging talks while other US officials say it is too soon.
 
Top U.S. General Urges Diplomacy in Ukraine While Biden Advisers Resist
Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has made the case that the Ukrainians should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table…
    A disagreement has emerged at the highest levels of the United States government over whether to press Ukraine to seek a diplomatic end to its war with Russia, with America’s top general urging negotiations while other advisers to President Biden argue that it is too soon… General Milley made public comments hinting at his private advice. “Seize the moment,” he said in a speech in New York on Wednesday…  He elaborated in an interview on CNBC on Thursday. “We’ve seen the Ukrainian military fight the Russian military to a standstill,” he said. “Now, what the future holds is not known with any degree of certainty, but we think there are some possibilities here for some diplomatic solutions.”… https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-diplomacy.html
 
After the purported missile strike in Poland, Biden reportedly requested an additional $37.7B for Ukraine.
 
@BernieSpofforth: G20 – Here’s Klaus Schwab, on the great Great Reset none of you voted for.
“Deep systemic restructuring of our world and this will take some time. And the world will look differently after we have gone through this transition process”  Unelected elites have stolen your choices.
https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1592426372684984323
 
Why does the unelected WEF Chief, Klaus Schwab, have a prominent role at the G20?
 
“The forest was shrinking, but the trees kept voting for the axe; for the axe was clever and convinced the trees that because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them.” — Turkish proverb.
 
@IAPolls2022: Donald Trump files FEC paperwork to run for President of the United States in 2024
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1592691923323478016
 
Trump officially announced his 2024 presidential candidacy at a Mar-a-Lago soiree last night.  GOP officials begged Trump to delay his announcement until after the runoff for the Senate seat from Georgia on December 6.  Now, Trump can be blamed if Walker fails to win the runoff.
 
Fox’s @PhilipWegmann: Mike Huckabee tells Hannity he isn’t surprised Trump is running for president, but “I’m a little surprised that he’s doing it before the Georgia runoff.”
 
In 2016, Trump was the only GOP presidential candidate that could beat Hillary.  In 2024, Trump is probably one of the few GOP presidential candidates that can lose to Joe Biden.
 
“It is seldom that liberty is lost all at once.” — David Hume, 18th Century Scottish philosopher


 

GREG HUNTER REPORT/INTERVIEWING  BIX WEIR

FTX Implosion Leads to Chaos in the Streets – Bix Weir

By Greg Hunter On November 15, 2022 In Market Analysis3 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

According to precious metals and financial expert Bix Weir, when the FTX cryptocurrency exchange imploded, it took with it billions of dollars of investments.  It now has more than a million creditors both big and small.  Weir says it is the tip of the iceberg in a dying over-indebted system.  Weir contends it is orders of magnitude worse than the Lehman Brothers meltdown that caused the Great Recession in 2008. Weir explains, “Does it really matter if we control the House or the Senate or the Presidency?  The only thing that will matter, the only thing that will change what is going on is when the ATMs shut off and, all of a sudden, people cannot get money out of the bank.  That would change things really fast.  I think it will happen.  All we need is one highly connected derivative bank to go down, and they all go down.  They can bail out a trillion-dollar bank, but they cannot bail out a $2 quadrillion failure, and that is what is coming.  The moment that hits is when everybody will say, okay, nobody is getting paid off. . . .We are going to find out in about a month how many counterparties in the FTX debacle will be translated into the derivatives, which is probably 100 times bigger than what happened on FTX.  Every one of those people on the FTX ledger was placing derivative bets that were hedging their crypto position.  Now, their crypto positions have disappeared.  The actual cryptos are no longer there . . .that is what was hedging this transaction.  There are two sides to a derivative trade.  If one side loses, they double lose.  So, we could see a massive, massive fallout from the derivative mess.”

Weir also points out, “The insanity is we all believe in unbacked fiat money.  That system is dying, and that’s why they are desperate to go to something else. . . . They know the end of this system is going to be painful.  That’s why they keep kicking the can down the road.  Nobody really pretends it’s going to work out.  You don’t hear the government saying we are going to pay off the debt. . . . Nobody talks about that anymore.  They talk more about what will we do next. . . .Let’s invent a new kind of currency.  That’s what they are talking about now because everybody has known since day one that this system will end.”

Well known politicians, sports stars and big-financial institutions were all involved with FTX.   Charges are flying that FTX was a money laundering operation, a fraud and a huge public rip-off.  This is a symptom of what comes at the end of a financial system.  What does the end look like?  Weir says, “It might be we have many currencies being used with the collapse of the system. . . .Our government is completely corrupt.  When they find out all the bad things your politicians have done to your country, to humanity and to children, good night.  There is going to be chaos in the streets.  Then what do you have that will work in a barter type situation until we all figure this out.  I think that is where we are going.  Right now, it’s going to be painful.  December will be really painful, and in January and February, who knows what will be with the change in government–if there is one.”

Weir says gold, and especially silver, are extremely undervalued.  He says physical supplies of both metals are disappearing.  Weir says both metals will be going way up in value in the not-so-distant future.

There is much more in the 34-min. interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Bix Weir of RoadtoRoota.com for 11/15/22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/ftx-implosion-leads-to-chaos-in-the-streets-bix-weir/)

(Tech Note: If you do not see the video, know it is there. Unplug your modem and plug it back in after 30 sec.  This will clear codes that may be blocking you from seeing it.  In addition, try different browsers.  Also, turn off all ad blockers if you have them. All the above is a way to censor people like USAWatchdog.com.)

After the Interview:

Weir has free information and video interviews on RoadtoRoota.com.   Weir calls this the “Public Road.”  Weir also has a pay subscription service called “Private Road,” which has much more information and analysis. **For a limited time we are giving away (1) Silver “Roota Lives!” Coin with every Private Road Subscription and renewal.

Just a little note telling you that I am going to take a 3 week break

from writing my blogs, starting on the 16th of November.. I will write some of the major events but it will not be in detail

i am a little burnt out so i am taking a rest. Just a little note telling you that I am going to take a 3 week break

from writing my blogs, starting on the 17th of November.. I will write some of the major events but it will not be in detail

i am a little burnt out so i am taking a rest. 

SEE YOU WHEN I CAN.

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2 comments

  1. Hans Pronk · · Reply

    Yes, take it easy for some time. Your health is important.

    Like

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