MARCH 14/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $4.75 TO $1906.40//SILVER HOWEVER CLOSED UP 9 CENTS TO $21.91//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $14.35 TO $989.35 WHEREAS PALLADIUM WAS UP $19.60 TO $1505.75//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT/SLAY NEWS//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//SILICON VALLEY AND SIGNATURE BANK FAILURE UPDATES// KEY ARTICLES: DR MICHAEL HUDSON AND BRANDON SMITH//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//CREDIT SUISSE FALLS ANOTHER 4% AS THEIR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS RISE//PROTESTS BY DUTCH FARMERS AGAIN//USA CPI COMES IN AS EXPECTED AT 0.4%//6% Y/Y//

Mar 14 2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $4.75 at $1906.40

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.09  to $21.91

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1903.50

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 21.69

Bitcoin morning price:, $24,691 UP 411 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $24,682 UP 402  dollars

Platinum price closing  $989.35 DOWN $14.35

Palladium price; closing $1508.75  UP $19.60

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,605.00 DOWN $21.70 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1565,80 DOWN 5.56 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1773.90 DOWN 9.18 euros per oz

COMEX DATA

EXCHANGE: COMEX

COMEX//NOTICES FILED 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,911.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/13/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 03/15/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 C HSBC 222
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 43
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 220
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 83
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 13
880 C CITIGROUP 8
905 C ADM 1 33


TOTAL: 315 315


TOTAL: 9 9
MONTH TO DATE: 3,021

JPMORGAN stopped 0/315 contracts

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT:  315 NOTICES FOR 31500  OZ  or  0.9797 TONNES

total notices so far: 3336 contracts for 333600 oz (10.3764 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 15,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :  2971 for 14,855,000 oz 

 



END

GLD

WITH GOLD  DOWN $4.75

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES INTO THE GLD//////(VERY STRANGE..WHERE DID THEY GET ALL OF THAT GOLD/?)

INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.09 

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 477.592. MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY AN IMPOSSIBLE  SIZED 5066 CONTRACTS TO 123,906 AND FURTHER FROM THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUMONGOUS  $1.35 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY (THIS IS FAIRY TALES). OUR NEW LOW COMEX OI SILVER WAS SET AT 121,299 MARCH 3/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.35). BUT WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 3130 CONTRACTS (WITH THE $1.35 GAIN IN PRICE???). WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (  THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1 MILLION OZ.)  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A GIGANTIC  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1936 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  15.58 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 40,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 15.160 MILLION OZ + THE 1.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 16.160 MILLION OZ/ ////  V)  IMPOSSIBLE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –243 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 days, total 6936 contracts:   OR 34.680  MILLION OZ . (694 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 34.680 MILLION OZ 

.

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  34.680 MILLION OZ//INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A RIDICULOUSLY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5066 DESPITE  OUR  $1.35 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1936 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF  15.58 MILLION  OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 1.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN MARCH (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 16.160 MILLION OZ  .. WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZEDLOSS OF 3130 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!! 

 WE HAD 3  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR   15,000   OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY AN IMPOSSIBLE  SIZED 1223 CONTRACTS  TO 468,037 AND FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 808 CONTRACTS. 

.

 WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 1223 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR  $48.85 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 45,600 OZ (1.418 TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of  contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $48.85 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 6609 OI CONTRACTS (20.556 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  7832 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 468,037

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6609 CONTRACTS  WITH 1223 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7832 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6609 CONTRACTS OR 20.556 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7831 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1,223) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 6609  CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 45,600 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 11.676 TONNES   // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4)  FAIR  SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  41,280  CONTRACTS OR 4,128,000 OZ OR 128.39 TONNES IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4128 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  128.39   TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  128.39/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.60% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 202

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 128.39 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY AN IMPOSSIBLE  SIZED 5066 CONTRACTS OI TO  123,906 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 121,299 CONTRACTS MARCH 3/2023. 

EFP ISSUANCE 1936 CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY  1936 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1936 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF  5066 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE  1936 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS LOSS  OF 3130 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //17.65 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  $1.35 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.38 PTS OR 0.72%    //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 448.01 PTS OR %  2.27      /The Nikkei closed DOWN 610.92%  PTS OR 2.19%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN  1.50%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.8765//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8746//    /Oil DOWN TO 73.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.43   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A RIDICULOUSLY SIZED 1223 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 468,037 WITH OUR HUMONGOUS GAIN IN PRICE OF $48.85 ON MONDAY

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY STRONG  SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 7832 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  APRIL 7832 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7832   CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED  TOTAL OF 6609  CONTRACTS IN THAT 7832 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1,223 CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR  HUMONGOUS GAIN  IN PRICE OF $48.85.  WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:    MAR  (11.673) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2003:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  11.673 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $48.85)  //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 6,609 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  

 WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI  OF 20.556 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 45,500 OZ  (1.415 TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH  OUR HUMONGOUS  GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $48.85 

WE HAD +808  CONTRACTS ADDED TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT(FIGURE THAT ONE OUT!!)

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6609 CONTRACTS OR 660900 OZ OR 20.556 TONNES

 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 271,209// //fair

final gold volumes/yesterday  575,068///huge +

//MARCH 14/ MARCH  2023 CONTRACT

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 257.20 oz
Brinks

8 kilobars







 







 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today315 notice(s)
31500 OZ
0.9797 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)417 contracts 
  41700 oz
1.2970 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month3336  notices
333,600
10.3764 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthx

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit:  nil  oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits:  0

total deposits: nil oz

 customer withdrawals: 1

i) out of Brinks  257.200 oz  (8kilobars)

total withdrawals: NIL    oz 

in tonnes: 0.007 tonnes

Adjustments;  1

dealer to customer//JPMorgan  24,066.95 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.

For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 732 contracts having GAINED 446  contracts. We had 9 notices filed on MONDAY so  we

gained A HUGE 455 contracts or an additional 45,500 oz will stand for metal at the comex 

April lost A HUGE 30,919???? contracts down to 222,818 contracts (UNUSUAL FOR THAT MANY TO LEAVE THIS EARLY//SPREADER??)

May GAINED 93 contracts to stand at 258

We had 315  notice(s) filed today for 31,500 oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  83  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 315  contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3336 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAR. 732 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  315 x 100 oz per contract equals 375,300 OZ  OR 11.673 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   active month of MARCH. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3336 x 100 oz+  732   OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (315)x 100 oz} which equals 375,300 oz standing OR 11.673 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.. 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 11.676 TONNES.   

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,765,662.466 OZ   54.919 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  21,498,388.213 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  10,818,632.699     (336.50 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,679,755.514 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,052,970 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 281.58 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

MAR 14/2023// THE MARCH 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory46,001.000 oz
CNT













































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz




























 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)  
 (15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)61 contracts 
(305,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2971 contracts
 (14,855,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 
dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

Total deposits: nil oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 147.008 million oz/285.189 million =51.54% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 

i) Out of CNT  46,001.000

Total withdrawals; 46,001.000   oz

adjustments: 0

 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 38.026MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 285.189 million oz

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAR/2023 OI: 64 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 13  CONTRACT(S.) WE HAD 21  NOTICES FILED

YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 8 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 40,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. 

April GAINED 31 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 899.(COMPARED TO GOLD COMEX, THE SILVER CONTRACT GAINED 32 )

May LOST  6174 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 102,417.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for 15,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  69,089//  strong//

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 130,551 contracts ( huge)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2971 x  5,000 oz = 14,855,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(64) and the number of notices served upon today 3 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month:  2971 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (64) – number of notices served upon today (3) x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 15.160 million oz  +the 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//new total standing 16.160 million oz

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES 

FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 913.27  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ

FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1  CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//

FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//

CLOSING INVENTORY 477.592 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

SVB Lessons: If You Can’t Hold It, It’s Not Really Yours

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank reminds us of a very important truth — if you can’t hold it in your hand, you don’t really own it…

That’s why it’s wise to hold at least some of your wealth in hard assets like gold and silver that are in your direct possession or at least stored in a secure, allocated, segregated, and insured storage facility.

The FDIC insures bank deposits up to $250,000. If you have more than that in a financial institution, you could lose everything above that limit if a bank fails.

Depositors at SVB and Signature Bank lucked out. The government has made provisions to cover uninsured deposits. But there’s no guarantee that will happen when the next bank goes under.

And even if you don’t have more than $250,000 in the bank, you could easily find yourself locked out of your account. Just last week, a computer glitch caused money in some Wells Fargo accounts to disappear.

There are also more nefarious reasons you could lose access to funds. The Nigerian central bank recently limited bank withdrawals in order to incentivize people to use its new central bank digital currency. In 2017, India faced cash shortages when the government declared that 1,000 and 500 rupee notes would no longer be valid with just a four-hour notice. And during its crisis, the Greek government shuttered banks and seized some bank deposits.

Most people assume “that can’t happen here” in the US. But as we saw over last week, the US banking system is vulnerable to collapse.

The dirty little secret is US banks don’t hold your money in their vaults. They loan it out to other people. In the US fractional reserve banking system, financial institutions only have enough cash on hand to cover a fraction of their deposits. If too many people show up at the bank to demand their money at the same time, the bank will not have enough funds available to cover all of the withdrawals. This is why bank runs are so dangerous. They can cause a bank to go under.

When you put your money in a bank, you create “counterparty risk.” In a nutshell, it is the risk that a person or institution on the other side of a transaction might not fulfill its obligation – i.e. the bank doesn’t have the money to return your deposit.

Even if you pull all of your money out of the bank and stuff it under your mattress, you still have counterparty risk, as Mises Institute president Jeff Deist explained.

Even if you managed to withdraw all of  ‘your’ money in physical cash from banks tomorrow and put it in your well-guarded safe at home, you are still a creditor to the Fed & Treasury. You still hold IOU paper with risk of loss.”

In fact, you’ve suffered significant losses in the value of your dollars over the last two years thanks to rampant price inflation.

Gold and silver carry no counterparty risk. They are tangible assets that you can hold in your hand. They can be bought and sold all over the world. Their value is recognized globally. While the price of gold or silver may fall, it will never fall to zero. Precious metals can’t default on their payments, they can’t commit fraud, and they can’t go bankrupt.

Of course, it’s impossible to lower risk to zero. If you store your gold and silver at home, you could get robbed. If you vault your precious metals, it is possible for that third-party storage entity to commit fraud, get robbed, or be destroyed by an act of God. Nevertheless, the counterparty risk introduced by storing your gold and silver is relatively low compared to the risk of a bank failure or rapidly depreciating fiat currency — especially in the current financial situation.

END

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

Two Fed-Supervised Banks Blew Up Last Week; Two More Dropped Over 40 Percent Yesterday; and the Fed Wants to Investigate Itself — Again

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: March 14, 2023 ~

Last Wednesday, federally-insured Silvergate Bank announced that it was closing shop and liquidating. Its parent’s stock price (Silvergate Capital, ticker SI) had lost over 90 percent of its value over the prior year; it was under a Justice Department investigation for how it moved money for crypto-kingpin Sam Bankman-Fried’s house of frauds; and its depositors were fleeing. Oh – and by the way – its primary regulator was the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Last Friday, California state regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) became the receiver. Its stock price had lost over 80 percent of its market value over the prior year; $150 billion of its $175 billion in deposits were uninsured, either because they exceeded the $250,000 FDIC cap and/or they were foreign deposits. The bank was effectively operating as a Wall Street IPO pipeline in drag as a federally-insured bank. The Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco had quietly been bailing it out – to the tune of $15 billion. Oh – and by the way – its primary regulator was the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. And while all of this hubris was occurring, the CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, Gregory Becker, was sitting on the Board of Directors of his regulator, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Let’s pause right here for a moment. This is far from the first time that the CEO of a questionable bank was sitting on the Board of a Federal Reserve Bank. As Citigroup CEO, Sandy Weill, was burying the bank under off balance sheet vehicles that would eventually crater the bank in 2008; send its stock price to 99 cents in early 2009; and require the largest bank bailout by the Fed in U.S. history, Weill was also serving on the Board of Directors of the New York Fed. And while Jamie Dimon was CEO of JPMorgan Chase and it was losing what eventually grew to $6.2 billion of bank depositors’ money in wild derivative bets in London, Dimon was also sitting on the Board of the New York Fed. Even when there was a big public uproar over Dimon’s presence on the New York Fed Board as the London Whale derivatives scandal came to light, Dimon remained in place.

Oh, and by the way, the Fed member banks in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts that can choose to be regulated by the Fed, literally own their regulator. That’s right, they own the stock in their regional Fed bank, which is a private institution, unlike the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C. which is an “independent” federal agency. (See, for example, These Are the Banks that Own the New York Fed and Its Money Button.)

As the first crypto-related bank failure occurred on Wednesday (Silvergate Bank) and the second largest bank failure in U.S. history occurred on Friday (Silicon Valley Bank) and the third largest bank failure in U.S. history occurred on Sunday (Signature Bank), President Joe Biden attempted yesterday to reassure the public, stating that “Americans can rest assured that our banking system is safe.”

But by the close of the stock market yesterday, two more banks whose primary regulator was a Fed regional bank had lost more than 40 percent of their market value – in one day’s trading session. (That doesn’t sound to us like things are under control.) Western Alliance Bancorp (ticker WAL), which is also supervised by the San Francisco Fed, lost 47 percent of its market value by the closing bell. Metropolitan Commercial Bank (bank holding company ticker is MCB) lost 43.78 percent of its market value yesterday. It is supervised by the New York Fed.

Adding to the ongoing arrogance of the Fed, its Chairman, Jerome Powell, released a statement two minutes after the market closed yesterday, stating that “The events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank demand a thorough, transparent, and swift review…” So, once again, it’s decided to investigate itself. The Fed’s Vice Chairman for Supervision, Michael Barr, will oversee the investigation.

The last time the Fed decided to investigate itself was over its unprecedented trading scandal where various Fed officials engaged in highly inappropriate trading during the pandemic when Fed officials had insider knowledge of bailout actions the Fed planned to take to stem the stock market rout. Powell referred the investigation into that matter to the Fed’s Inspector General – who reports to (wait for it) the Federal Reserve Board, which is headed by Powell. The first news of that trading scandal came to light in early September 2021. It’s now 19 months later and the public has yet to hear a peep about the results of any investigation into the worst actor in the trading scandal, former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan. (See our report: Robert Kaplan Was Trading Like a Hedge Fund Kingpin for Five Years while President of the Dallas Fed; a Dozen Legal Safeguards Failed to Stop Him.)

Against this backdrop of Fed hubris, the PBS program, Frontline, will tonight premiere a two-hour documentary on the Fed’s controversial monetary policies that have led us to this dangerous point in time. The Age of Easy Money comes from the award-winning producers James Jacoby and Anya Bourg.

In the documentary, economist Nouriel Roubini says “We lived in a bubble, in a dream, and this dream and bubble is bursting.” Jim Millstein, Co-Chairman of Guggenheim Securities, shares this: “I’ve never been more worried in the 42 years that I’ve been a professional. The Fed is absolutely right to try and get it [inflation] under control by raising interest rates in slowing economic activity. But the most highly levered players in our economy are going to come under real stress whether that’s households or businesses or governments, as interest costs rise.”

Actually, what’s blowing up right at this moment and scaring the daylights out of the American people are the U.S. banks (some of which were supervised by the Fed) that are sitting on a cumulative $620 billion of unrealized losses.

According to a February 28 statement from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on the condition of federally- insured U.S. banks and savings associations, “Unrealized losses on securities totaled $620.4 billion in the fourth quarter, down 10.1 percent from the prior quarter. Unrealized losses on held–to–maturity securities totaled $340.9 billion in the fourth quarter. Unrealized losses on available–for–sale securities totaled $279.5 billion in the fourth quarter.”

Age of Easy Money will air tonight on PBS stations (check local listings) and on Frontline’s YouTube channel at 9 p.m. eastern time and 8 p.m. central time

end

3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA AND OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD COMMENTARIES

Total unrealized losses at uSA banks total $620 billion

(CNN New York/GATA)

U.S. banks have unrealized losses of $620 billion, FDIC says

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-03-13 11:54Section: Daily Dispatches


By Nicole Goodkind
CNN, New York
Sunday, March 12, 2023

Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse last week sent tingles of panic down investors’ spines as it highlighted a larger problem across the banking sector: The widening gap between the value large lenders place on the bonds they hold and what they’re actually worth on the market.

SVB’s downfall was tied, in part, to the plunge in the value of bonds it acquired during boom times, when it had a lot of customer deposits coming in and needed somewhere to park the cash

But SVB isn’t the only institution with that issue. U.S. banks were sitting on $620 billion in unrealized losses — assets that have decreased in price but haven’t been sold yet– at the end of 2022, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

What’s happening: Back when interest rates were near zero, U.S. banks scooped up lots of Treasuries and bonds. Now, as the Federal Reserve hikes rates to fight inflation, those bonds have declined in value.

When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds start paying higher rates to investors, which makes the older bonds with lower rates less attractive and less valuable.

The result is that most banks have some amount of unrealized losses on their books.

“The current interest rate environment has had dramatic effects on the profitability and risk profile of banks’ funding and investment strategies,” said FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg in prepared remarks at the Institute of International Bankers last week. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/12/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html

END

For sure: USA intervention encourages bad investor behaviour. It always happens

(Reuters/GATA)

Moral hazard is concern as U.S. intervenes to save big banks

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-03-13 12:03Section: Daily Dispatches

By Scott Murdoch and Carolina Mandl
Reuters
Monday, March 13, 2023

U.S. regulators may have stemmed a banking crisis by guaranteeing deposits of collapsed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), but some experts warn that the move has encouraged bad investor behavior.

Following a weekend of discussions over the future of SVB owner SVB Financial Group, banking regulators unveiled emergency funding plans for the bank.

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman wrote on Twitter that if authorities had not intervened, “we would have had a 1930s bank run continuing first thing Monday causing enormous economic damage and hardship to millions.”

“More banks will likely fail despite the intervention, but we now have a clear roadmap for how the gov’t will manage them.”

Yet by guaranteeing that depositors would lose no money, authorities have again raised the question of moral hazard — removal of people’s incentive to guard against financial risk.

“This is a bailout and a major change of the way in which the U.S. system was built and its incentives,” said Nicolas Veron, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “The cost will be passed on to everyone who uses banking services.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/experts-flag-moral-hazard-risk-us-intervenes-svb-crisis-2023-03-13/

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

END

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:  +

END

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

end

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8765

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8746

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.38 PTS OR 0.72%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 448.01 PTS OR 2.27 % 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 610.92 PTS OR 2.19%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  103.31 Euro RISES TO 1.0724 UP 9 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.262!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 134.06/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN-//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.343%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.206%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.423…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.265//

3j Gold at $1911.00//silver at: 21.70  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND  26/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 75.26//

3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and  79 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 134.06/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .262% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9109– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9771well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.634% UP 12 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.734 UP 8 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.2295 UP 20 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,98…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.4995% UP 13 BASIS PTS

end

i.b  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Rise, Bank Stocks Soar On Report Private Equity Firms Circle SVB Loan Book

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 08:03 AM

Market mood recovered from yesterday’s bank rout as contagion fears from the collapse of SIVB and SBNY appear to have subsided for the time being, despite a hiccup earlier in the session when Credit Suisse stock hit a new record low after the Swiss bank said it had identified material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2022 and 2021. The mood was lifted by a Bloomberg report that Apollo Global and Blackstone have expressed interest in snapping up a book of loans held by Silicon Valley Bank, suggesting the collapsed bank contagion may be contained after bigger buyers step in.

S&P futures were up 0.8% to 3,920 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.7% ahead of US CPI later today (full CPI preview here). Major US banks were broadly higher in the premarket as regional lender First Republic Bank surged 39% after plunging on Monday. This has led to a rebound in short end yields with US two-year up 27bps on the day to 4.22% (still down around 85bps from last week’s peak).  Plunging rates gripped Wall Street’s attention yesterday, when the yield dropped more than a half-percentage point in the biggest move since the 1980s. The 10-year yield rose three basis points to 3.60%, while a gauge of the dollar snapped three days of losses.

In premarket trading, financial stocks traded higher, alongside the broader market as banks rally off a historically bad Monday; the mood was lifted by the aforementioned BBG report that Apollo and Blackstone, two of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, are among investors looking to buy pieces of Silicon Valley Bank. First Republic Bank jumped 44% in premarket trading, while PacWest Bancorp rose 34% and Western Alliance Bancorp added more than 20%. Bigger lenders were also in the green, with Bank of America Corp advancing 3% and Citigroup Inc. adding 1.3%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • United Airlines shares drop 6.1% after the carrier slashed its 1Q outlook and now expects to post a loss for the period. Analysts said that the revised guidance was due to the change in timing for pilot contract accrual, though note other aspects of the 2023 outlook remain unchanged.
  • Uber and Lyft advanced after a California appeals court upheld the current law classifying gig workers as independent contractors instead of employees. Analysts noted that this would allow the companies to avoid any negative impact to their business. Uber rose as much as 5.8% and Lyft jumped 6.4%
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rose after Bitcoin extends its gains as US authorities stepped in to stem spreading concerns about the health of the nation’s financial system after Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. Bitfarms (BITF US) +8.5%, Stronghold Digital (SDIG US) +8.5%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +2.1%, Riot Platforms (RIOT US) +1.3%, Coinbase (COIN US) +0.6%
  • Momentive Global rose 18% to $9.13 per share, after the SurveyMonkey owner said it had agreed to be acquired by a consortium led by Symphony Technology Group for $9.46/share cash.
  • Gitlab fell 33% after the software company gave a full-year revenue forecast that was weaker than expected. Analysts note that the management’s outlook seems conservative amid a tough macro environment.
  • Amylyx Pharmaceuticals the maker of a drug for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, rose 20% in after-market after posting 4Q revenue that easily topped estimates.
  • Watch Apple stock as Evercore ISI said it deserves to trade at a premium valuation compared to its big tech peers, citing the iPhone maker’s higher operating efficiency, large share repurchase program and consistent execution.

The S&P 500 closed Monday down 0.2%, after bouncing between gains and losses amid a rout in bank shares while the policy-sensitive Nasdaq climbed 0.8%, the most in over a week. The fallout from SVB’s collapse prompted President Joe Biden to promise stronger regulation of US lenders, while reassuring depositors that their money is safe.

Treasuries had been whipsawed in recent days — with a measure of volatility climbing to the highest since 2009 — and banking shares plunged as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and two other US lenders prompted wagers the Federal Reserve will pause its hiking cycle and even cut interest rates to stabilize the financial system. But a hot inflation reading later today could muddy that outlook and spark a fresh wave of volatility in fixed-income markets.

“A policy mistake is hands down the biggest risk in the market,” Mary Manning, global portfolio manager for Alphinity Investment Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “Controlling inflation but also addressing the fact there is some instability in the banking system is difficult.”

As BBG notes, swap contracts referencing Fed policy meetings slashed the odds of any increase to less than one-in-two. Meanwhile, contracts for the rest of 2023 suggest that the Fed could cut rates by almost a full percentage point from the peak in May before the year is out. Goldman economists as well as asset managers from PIMCO said the Fed could take a breather on the policy rate following the collapse of SVB. Nomura economists took it one step further, saying the Fed could cut its target rate next week.

“Niggling concerns that mild recessions could be on the way have been replaced by a wall of worry about runs on smaller banks,” as well as the risk that larger ones may turn more risk averse to lending, according to Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. Inflation data will be closely watched “as another hot reading will reinforce expectations that a rate rise, albeit smaller, will be on the cards next week,” she said.

Then there is CPI to look forward to: traders are looking to the US consumer price index report later in the day for cues that may trigger further shifts in the outlook for monetary policy. Our full CPI preview can be found here.

The bank selloff “certainly creates a headwind for aggressive Fed action, if any action,” said Gary Schlossberg, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. “But there is that very important data coming out which may not ease concerns over inflation. It means the Fed has even more of a balancing act.”

European stocks are also ahead, albeit slightly, with the Stoxx 600 adding 0.2%. European real estate shares jump the most in a month on bets central banks will slow the pace of interest-rate hikes, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate subindex outpacing all others; elsewhere, utilities and industrials were among the best-performing sectors while the FTSE 100 underperforms, down 0.2%. Credit Suisse shares slide to new record lows, shedding as much as 5.6%, after the lender said it had found “material weaknesses” in its reporting and control procedures for the past years. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • Generali shares rise as much as 2.5% and are the top performers on the FTSE MIB index, after the Italian insurer reported full-year operating results that were ahead of estimates
  • Icade shares jump as much as 10%, their biggest gain since November 2020, after the real estate investment trust entered a pact with Primonial REIM to sell its stake in Icade Santé
  • Wojas surge as much as 33% to a record high after the Polish footwear producer said it had received a 138.6m zloty contract to make military shoes for the country’s army.
  • Close Brothers shares fall as much as 7.5% after the UK financial services firm posted 1H pretax operating profit that missed the average analyst estimate
  • PolyPeptide falls as much as 22% to a record low, after the biotech reported full- year results that were once again weaker than expected even after two profit warnings, according to ZKB
  • TP ICAP falls as much as 8.9% after dark pool unit Liquidnet saw “subdued” block trading activity last year, amid a broader equity-market rout, according to the firm’s results
  • Fraport shares fall as much as 7%. Warburg notes free cash flow levels are still “deep in negative territory,” even as the German airport operator posted a good set of FY results

Earlier in the session, shares of Asian financial firms decline after Treasury yields dropped and US bank stocks slid amid continued concerns related to bank failures. The MSCI Asia Pacific Financials Index falls as much as 2.7% to the lowest since Nov. 29. Investors questioned whether the US government’s rescue plan for the banking system will prevent more fallout from SVB’s collapse. The KBW Bank Index dropped nearly 12% Monday, the most since March 2020. The 10-year Treasury yield shed about 13 basis points to 3.57%; two-year yields plunged 61 bps

Japanese stocks fell for a third day as investors continued to assess the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and rethink expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.  The Topix Index fell 2.7% to 1,947.54 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 2.2% to 27,222.04. The yen weakened slightly after strengthening 1.4% Monday to 133.21 per dollar.  Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 8.6%. Out of 2,159 stocks in the index, 66 rose and 2,081 fell, while 12 were unchanged. The Topix’s gauge for banks and insurers dragged the broader index down, both tumbling at least 6%, as the SVB trouble has driven investor attention to the heavy investment in US bonds by Japan’s lenders.  The uncertain sentiment toward financial institutions also set off a plunge in bond yields in the US and Japan. The US two-year Treasury yield dropped on Monday, logging the biggest three-day retreat since Black Monday of October 1987, as market participants continued to flee US bank shares even after US regulators announced a rescue plan Sunday evening. Japan’s five-year yield also tumbled to lowest since Dec. 2 earlier today. Bond Yields’ Plunge Is Biggest Since Volcker Era on Bank Worries “News around US banks had a major impact creating the ‘flight to safety’ sentiment,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona Asset Management. “Investors are leveraging and taking out loans, and their money is connected to the financial system, so they are reducing their positions due to a sense of uncertainty.”

South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.6%, the most since Sept. 26, as foreign investors sell equities in Kospi futures and cash markets amid worries about repercussions from the SVB crisis. “Emerging markets are vulnerable every time there are worries about financial risks in developed markets,” Seo Jung-Hun, an analyst at Samsung Securities said by phone “It appears that foreign investors are hedging their risks through South Korea” by heavily selling Kospi 200 futures. Foreigners cut 1.4 trillion won worth of futures in the Kospi 200 Index, the most since August 2021, while selling net 638 billion won in the Kospi cash markets

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.4% to 7,008.90, its lowest close since Jan. 3. The benchmark extended losses to a third day, as all sectors declined.  Equities across Asia fell, led by weakness in financial stocks as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continued to reverberate across global markets. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.7% to 11,595.47

In India, major equity indexes plunged for a fourth consecutive session as most Asian markets extended their declines, triggered by the continued selloff in financials.  Indian software makers were the worst performers on worries over the banking sector in the US, their biggest revenue generator. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.6% to 57,900.19 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by a similar measure as the guages come within 2% of entering a so-called correction from their record peaks in early December.  Asia’s benchmark stock index erased all of its gains for the year as financials extended the rout following the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank. “Markets are likely to remain under pressure in the near term,” Siddhartha Khemka, head of retail research at Mumbai-based Motilal Oswal Financial Services said. US inflation data to be released later Tuesday will be a key factor to watch, he added.  Tata Consultancy Services contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 2%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 7 rose and 23 fell

In FX, a gauge of the greenback rebounded from a three-week low as Treasury yields rose before the release of US inflation data. The Japanese yen was the weakest of the G-10 currencies, while the Dollar Index adds 0.2%.  Traders may take their next cue from US inflation data to gauge if the Federal Reserve will halt its tightening campaign to limit the fallout from higher interest rates

In rates, Treasuries are cheaper across front-end and belly of the curve, unwinding a portion of Monday’s aggressive bull-steepening rally. Long-end yields slightly richer on the day, re-flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads ahead of February inflation data, Tuesday’s main calendar event. Yields cheaper by as much as 24bp across front-end of the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by ~21bp and ~10bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.59%, cheaper by ~2bp vs Monday’s close, with bunds and gilts lagging by 7bp and 6bp in the sector. Early gains in Treasuries during Asia session were spurred by report that Credit Suisse Group AG said it found “material weaknesses” in its reporting and control procedures for the past two years. UK and German two-year yields rise 12bps and 10bps respectively.  Ahead of CPI, Fed-dated OIS price in around 19bp of rate-hike premium for the March policy meeting, up from 13bp at Monday’s close.

In commodities, oil extended a decline ahead of the inflation data with WTI futures declining down 2.7% to trade near $72.80. Bitcoin rises 1.0% while spot was gold down 0.6% after rising in the three previous sessions as traders turned to haven assets.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US CPI release for February, the NFIB small business optimism index for February and the UK unemployment rate for January. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Governor Bowman.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,873.50
  • MXAP down 2.2% to 155.29
  • MXAPJ down 1.7% to 500.30
  • Nikkei down 2.2% to 27,222.04
  • Topix down 2.7% to 1,947.54
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.3% to 19,247.96
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,245.31
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 57,817.37
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 7,008.88
  • Kospi down 2.6% to 2,348.97
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 443.15
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.26%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $1.0693
  • Brent Futures down 1.5% to $79.58/bbl
  • Brent Futures down 1.5% to $79.56/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,906.05
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.36% to 103.97

Top Overnight News

  1. China said its embassy in Washington would once again permit foreign tourists to visit the country, the latest example of Beijing lifting its COVID restrictions. WSJ
  2. Just 1 week ago it would have been hard to imagine anyone asking if the CPI print even matters. Oh how quickly things change. This makes me believe risk is skewed to the downside post CPI print. Unless we get a shockingly hot number mkt will remain more focused on unfolding banks drama ( a soft print will be disregarded as not relevant). For headline print GIR look for +.4% MoM ( vs +.4% cons and +.5% prior) and +6.08% YoY (vs +6% cons and +6.4% prior). For core MoM GIR looking for +.45% (vs +.4% consensus and +.4% prior) and YoY of +5.56% (vs 5.5% cons and 5.6% prior). GS GBM
  3. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida has sharply broken with Republicans who are determined to defend Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, saying in a statement made public on Monday night that protecting the European nation’s borders is not a vital U.S. interest and that policymakers should instead focus attention at home. NYT
  4. U.S. regulators are likely to let emergency measures announced Sunday to shore up investor confidence in the banking sector sink in and increase scrutiny of the industry before intervening with any further steps, regulatory experts said. RTRS
  5. Biden was apparently “highly skeptical” of intervening in the bank industry over the weekend but was finally brought on board by fears about contagion. WaPo
  6. FDIC is concerned that it is now expected to guarantee all depositors every time a bank fails, something it is not designed to do. Politico
  7. The FHLB system, a key source of cash for regional lenders, raised $88.7 billion through the sale of short-term notes, according to people with knowledge of the matter, more than the $64 billion initially planned. BBG
  8. Moody’s placed First Republic Bank, Western Alliance Bancorp., Intrust Financial Corp., UMB Financial Corp., Zions Bancorp. and Comerica Inc. on review for downgrade, the latest sign of concern over the health of regional financial firms following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
  9. The DOJ is probing last year’s collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin, raising the risk of criminal charges against its fugitive creator Do Kwon, the WSJ reported. Separately, US prosecutors are looking at Telegram chats among employees at Jump, Jane Street and the now-bankrupt Alameda about a potential bailout of the TerraUSD project, and whether market manipulation was involved, a person familiar said. BBG
  10. One year after the Federal Reserve started frantically raising interest rates, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank answered what had become perhaps the hottest question on Wall Street: When is something going to break? BBG
  11. Credit Suisse says it has identified material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, according to the annual report: BBG
  12. Some of the world’s top money managers are sitting on a windfall after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank spurred the biggest rally in US Treasuries since the early 1980s: BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

Asia-Pac stocks declined amid a continuation of the selling in financials and with risk appetite constricted amid the fallout from the recent US bank collapses. ASX 200 spent most of the session beneath the 7,000 level with the index pressured by substantial losses in nearly all sectors and amid headwinds from weak data releases in which Westpac consumer sentiment remained near historic lows and NAB business surveys deteriorated. Nikkei 225 slumped due to heavy losses in financial stocks which occupied the list of the 10 worst performers, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange banking index suffered its worst day in over three years. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. retreated albeit with less aggressive selling in the mainland on reopening news as China is to resume the issuance of all types of visas for foreigners from March 15th.

Top Asian News

  • US President Biden said he will talk to Chinese President Xi soon but didn’t specify when. Furthermore, National Security Adviser Sullivan said President Biden anticipates a call opportunity with Chinese President Xi once China’s government returns to work after the NPC, while Sullivan added the US had communicated with China over the AUKUS submarine pact and China’s military build-up.
  • EU seeks new controls to limit China acquiring high-tech and is exploring ways to police how European companies invest in production facilities overseas, according to FT.
  • The Great Hiking Cycle Is Seen as Done as Yields Drop Below Cash
  • SVB Crisis Puts Focus on Chinese Tech IPOs in the US: ECM Watch
  • China Assets Stand Out as Oasis of Calm Amid SVB Fallout
  • Germany, Brazil Plan High-Level Meetings as Ties Strengthen
  • Japan Yield Falls Past Previous BOJ Ceiling as US Hike Bets Ease
  • Global Financial Stocks Lose $465 Billion as SVB Fallout Spreads

European bourses are posting tentative gains, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, as the risk tone remains fragile given financial stability concerns. Banking names in Europe remain softer, with Credit Suisse lagging after finding material weakness in its 2021/22 financial reporting; for the sector more broadly, GS highlights there is a limited risk of direct contagion to Europe. Stateside, futures are modestly firmer but have been unable to claw back any of Monday’s marked downside, ES +0.4%, ahead of February’s CPI. CATL’s (3007540 CH) at least USD 5bln Swiss IPO is said to be delayed amid regulatory concern, according to Reuters sources; no new timetable for Swiss listing.

Top European News

  • UK PM Sunak invited US President Biden to visit Northern Ireland for the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, while President Biden said that he intends to go to Northern Ireland
  • UK Chancellor Hunt is to set out plans for 12 new investment zones in the Budget to “supercharge” growth in hi-tech industries, while the scheme is to be backed by GBP 80mln of investment over five years in each of the new high-growth zones, according to Sky News.
  • Germany has reportedly made last-minute demands on the reform of EU fiscal rules, according to Bloomberg, casting doubts on a draft proposal agreed by EU members. Follows reports that EU Finance Ministers are to discuss the Growth and Stability Pact on 14th March, draft conclusions show general support for the switch from a one-rule-fits-all approach to debt reduction to multi-year plans tailored to each nation, via Politico; Germany said to seek to ensure nations bring down debt by a common quantitative benchmark/target.

SVB/Bank Bailout update

  • Top Senate and top House Democrats said Congress will be looking closely at the causes behind the run on SVB and other banks, as well as how a similar crisis can be prevented in the future.
  • Silicon Valley Bank N.A. CEO said they are conducting business as usual within the US and expect to resume cross-border transactions in the coming days, while the CEO added the FDIC transferred all deposits and all assets of former Silicon Valley Bank to the newly created, full-service FDIC-operated ‘bridge bank’ and all depositors have full access to their money with deposits protected.
  • FDIC is still looking to sell SVB (SIVB) and told GOP senators it is planning another auction, according to WSJ sources.
  • Moody’s withdrew Signature Bank’s (SBNY) long-term and short-term local currency bank deposit ratings, while it downgraded its subordinate debt to C from BAA3 and will withdraw ratings. Furthermore, Moody’s placed multiple US banks under review for downgrade including Zions Bancorporation (ZION), Comerica (CMA), UMB (UMBF), Western Alliance (WAL), First Republic (FRC), Signature Bank (SBNY) and Intrust.
  • Large US banks are reportedly inundated with new depositors as smaller lenders face turmoil with JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and other large financial institutions trying to accommodate customers wanting to move deposits quickly, according to FT.
  • Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) found material weakness in financial reporting for 2021 and 2022, though the reports fairly present the situation. Co. at its AGM is to discuss the proposal for a distribution of a dividend to shareholders of CHF 0.05 gross per registered share for the financial year 2022. Adding, it could require significant resources to correct the material deficiencies within report, developing a remediation plan to address this. Note, this update is not in relation to the SVB situation. On SVB, CEO adds credit exposure is not material.

FX

  • The DXY is firmer and benefitting from some consolidation/corrective price action in yields, with the index briefly surmounting 104.00 as the US 2 & 10yr yields convincingly reclaimed 4.00% and 3.50% respectively.
  • Given the action in yields and the USD’s recovery, the JPY is the clear underperformer giving back much of Monday’s haven-premium; USD/JPY above 134.00 from a 133.04 base.
  • As such, G10 peers are lower across the board though with the magnitude of downside less pronounced than the JPY move with EUR and GBP relatively unreactive to data prints; around 1.07 and 1.215 respectively vs the USD.
  • Antipodeans are more rangebound with AUD and NZD around 0.665 and 0.621 respectively while the SEK as perhaps derived some incremental support from familiar Riksbank commentary.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8949 vs exp. 6.8933 (prev. 6.9375)

Fixed Income

  • Core benchmarks have experienced a marked turnaround, after an initial move higher around Credit Suisse’s update, with USTs now below 114.00 from a 115.07+ peak.
  • Amidst this, yields are elevated across the curve with the US experiencing marked bear-flattening with US CPI due and potential remarks from Fed’s Bowman.
  • Within Europe, Bunds peaked just above 137 and have since reversed to below 135.00 while the UK sale was well-received and seemingly helped to lift Gilts off lows ahead of German Bobl supply.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent have been declining throughout the European morning after settling lower by around USD 2.0/bbl, with the front month futures below USD 73/bb; and USD 79/bbl respectively.
  • Nat Gas experiences some modest divergence with Henry Hub firmer and Dutch TTF softer, with ING highlighting renewable generation and milder forecasts for northern Europe as factors.
  • Metals are mixed, spot gold is slightly softer but is holding above USD 1900/oz while base metals continue to slip given the broader tone.
  • Indian oil ministry says there are no discussions on payments of Russian oil in CNY, according to Reuters sources; India has no obligation to purchase Russian oil below the price cap.
  • Black Sea grain deal has been extended according to Tass citing the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister; under prior conditions. Ukraine will adhere to the terms of the prior 120-day corridor, via Reuters citing a senior gov’t official. However, Turkey and the UN subsequently clarified that talks are ongoing on an extension.

Geopolitics

  • US President Biden said alongside Australian PM Albanese that he doesn’t view what they are doing as a challenge to anybody but is more about stability in the Indo-Pacific after AUKUS leaders met and agreed on a plan to deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.
  • North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea. South Korea said the missiles flew 620km and the repeated launches are a grave act of provocation threatening peace and security in the region. South Korea also said it will carry out combined drills with the US as planned and maintain readiness based on overwhelming capability, while the US military said North Korean missile launches do not pose an immediate threat to US personnel or territory or to their allies.
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says Washington seeks to create flashpoints for geopolitical confrontation with Russia in Moldova and Georgia, via Al Jazeera.

Crypto

  • US DoJ is probing the collapse of Do Kwon’s TerraUSD stablecoin and FBI and New York officials have questioned former Terraform Labs team members, according to WSJ.
  • Crypto conglomerate Digital Currency Group (DCG) is reportedly trying to find new banking partners for portfolio companies following the collapse of SVB (SIVB), Signature Bank (SBNY), and Silvergate (SI), according to messages viewed by CoinDesk

US Event Calendar

  • 06:00: Feb. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM 90.9, est. 90.3, prior 90.3
  • 08:30: Feb. CPI MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%; Feb. CPI YoY, est. 6.0%, prior 6.4%
    • CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%; CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.5%, prior 5.6%
    • Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -1.8%, revised -1.9%
    • Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -1.5%, revised -1.9%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In late summer 1998 I went on holiday for 2 weeks. Before I went, a Mexico 2002 maturity bond traded at around +150-200bps over DM government bonds. After a relaxing two weeks in the sun with no mobile phones etc and no financial news flow I ambled back into the office to the shock of finding that same Mexico bond that I’d been involved in launching as a salesman a few months earlier was now trading at around +900bps. I was dumbfounded. Since then, I’ve learnt not to be too shocked by anything in financial markets even if yesterday was up there with some of the wilder days I can remember. In some benchmark assets (e.g. US 2yr yields) we saw far bigger moves that even during the GFC. However if you just looked at the S&P 500 (-0.15%) you’ll be forgiven for thinking yesterday was a big fuss about nothing.

Overall, I came out of yesterday even more convinced of our long-standing H2 2023 US hard landing view but with absolutely no idea at the moment what the Fed and ECB are going to do at their meetings over the next week and even beyond. I always thought that with inflation where it was, that central banks would keep hiking until they broke something, which was especially likely with the yield curve so inverted. Now they have broken something, is that enough for a pause? Much will depend on whether markets and contagion risk can calm quickly enough. If the FOMC meeting was today I strongly suspect they wouldn’t hike but a week is a long time in these markets. For the recession call it’s simpler. As per last month’s chart book we were just “Waiting for the lag” (link here). It’s fair to say that the lag has well and truly arrived and it’s unlikely now that a key part of our macro story, namely lending standards, are going to get looser given all that’s gone on. So no change to our very bearish year end 2023 credit spread targets through all this crisis.

Back to current markets, let’s first run through some of the astonishing stats from yesterday. The most remarkable was that we saw the biggest daily decline in the 2yr Treasury yield (-61.0bps) since October 7 1982 when the 2yr yield fell -75bps to 10.469% in what was a very different rate environment. In Europe, the 2yr German yield saw its biggest decline (-40.7bps) in available data back to reunification in 1990. And for equities, the KBW Banks Index (-11.66%) saw its worst performance since the height of the pandemic in March 2020 even if there was a big divide between big and small banks (see below). In the meantime, there are now serious questions being asked about whether the Fed might even call it a day on their current hiking cycle, and pricing for the Fed funds rate by the end of the year has now collapsed by over -140bps since last Wednesday. Meanwhile the MOVE index of bond volatility hit 14-year highs.

After all that, there’ve been few signs of any letup in Asian markets this morning, with banks leading a further round of equity declines. For instance, the TOPIX Banks index in Japan is down another -7.21%, which builds on its -9.17% decline over the previous two sessions. That has meant all the major equity indices have lost ground, including the Nikkei (-2.20%), the KOSPI (-2.37%), the Hang Seng (-1.59%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.77%) and the CSI 300 (-0.67%). Sovereign bond yields have moved lower in Asia too, with Japan’s 10yr government bond yield (-7.8bps) moving down to 0.24% this morning, which interestingly is beneath the Bank of Japan’s previous ceiling of 0.25% for the 10yr yield, which they moved up to 0.5% back in December.

Whilst markets in Asia have continued yesterday’s trend, those in the US this morning are showing signs of stabilising. Equity futures are pointing higher, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.31% after the index’s run of three consecutive declines. Furthermore, we’ve even seen a sharp rebound in the 2yr Treasury yield, which is up +18.4bps this morning to 4.16%, following its largest daily decline since 1982 over the previous session. The only thing to remember is that we have been here before to some extent, since 24 hours ago futures were pointing to an even sharper equity rebound before we ended up with the S&P seeing a modest decline, so this story could still have plenty of twists and turns remaining.

In terms of the latest on the SVB situation, concerns about potential contagion to other banks remain prominent, in spite of the moves we mentioned in yesterday’s edition from the FDIC and the Fed. We did hear from President Biden, who reassured the public that “the banking system is safe” and proposed new regulation that would “strengthen the rules for banks to make it less likely this kind of bank failure would happen again”. But he didn’t outline any specific proposals, and any new legislation would have to get past the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. After the US close the Fed announced that they would be launching an internal investigation into the supervision of Silicon Valley Bank, led by Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.

In a move that highlights the current need for funding in financial markets, the US Federal Home Loan Banks raised $88.7bn in a bond sale yesterday, exceeding their initial target. The FHLB system is a Depression-era tool designed to be a lender of short-term funding to private banks in order to lessen the load on the Fed and make it not seem like banks are reaching for their “lender of last resort”. Silicon Valley Bank had tapped the FHLB last Thursday before the Fed stepped in and took control of the situation. Given the large bond sale it is likely that other regional banks are still looking for liquidity.

The lingering contagion concerns and fears about further outflows meant that bank stocks plummeted yesterday, particularly among some of the US regional banks. For instance, First Republic ended the day down -61.93%, which was actually a recovery from its intraday low of -78.56%. Another was Western Alliance Bancorp, which fell -47.06% having been as low as -84.88%. Both experienced trading halts during the day, and overnight Moody’s has placed the ratings of both on review for a downgrade. By contrast, the biggest banks were relatively unscathed, with JPMorgan only down -1.80%, whilst Bank of America (-5.81%) and Citigroup (-7.45%) also outperformed the wider KBW Banks Index.

Aside from contagion fears, the other big question moving forward is how central banks react to this turmoil. Up until Thursday of last week, investors had little doubt that the Fed would keep on hiking rates for some months, and a larger 50bps hike was seen as the most likely outcome for the next meeting. But the view now is that the SVB collapse has torpedoed any chance they might accelerate to 50bps, and even a 25bps move is now seen as questionable depending on what happens over the coming days. We’ve also seen financial conditions tighten with astonishing speed, with Bloomberg’s index seeing its largest move tighter over 3 days since March 2020 at the height of the pandemic.

Looking at market pricing, a 17.6bps hike is now priced in for the Fed’s meeting next week, which is down from 42.8bps last Wednesday. So that implies a roughly +71% chance they’ll follow through with a 25bps hike next week. Andif you look at pricing for the terminal rate there’s been an even more dramatic shift, since by the close yesterday it had fallen to 4.76% (-54bps yesterday) for the May meeting and only 6bps above March suggesting that the market isn’t pricing in a full 25bps hike anymore and a long way down from the intraday peak of 5.695% we saw for the September meeting last week. And overnight, terminal pricing has only seen a very partial rebound to 4.84%. Further out, there are nearly three 25bp rate cuts priced in for 2023 now, but for what it’s worth, the Fed haven’t started cutting rates with CPI or core CPI this high since 1981. And remember that was also when unemployment was running at 7.5% (rather than 3.6% today), so a cut was far easier to justify given their dual mandate for maximum employment alongside stable prices. So for the Fed to cut with this combination of above-target inflation whilst unemployment is around its lowest in half a century would be unprecedented.

As discussed at the top, the prospect that the Fed might already be done with its hiking cycle triggered a massive sovereign bond rally. This was most pronounced at the front-end, where the 2yr Treasury yield came down -60.98bps, with 10yr yields down “just” -12.5bps after intraday being down as much as -28.7bps in what would have been its largest decline on the year. This meant that the 2s10s curve steepened substantially on the day, finishing +48.2bps steeper to close -41.1bps inverted – that’s the least inverted the curve has been since late October and the largest amount of steepening since 9/11.

Interestingly, the declines in the 10yr portion of the rate curve were even bigger in Europe, despite the fact that they face far less exposure to SVB. That meant yields on 10yr bunds (-24.9bps) saw their largest daily decline since Mario Draghi became ECB President in 2011, whilst yields on 10yr OATs (-21.2bps) and gilts (-27.0bps) also tumbled. Much as happened in the US, a driving factor behind the European rates rally was the prospect of fewer rate hikes from the ECB. Their next meeting is only on Thursday, but markets are only pricing in a +38.7bps move despite their pre-existing commitment to a 50bp hike. And to be fair, back in June the ECB pre-committed to their initial hike being 25bps move in July, but they went onto deliver a 50bps one, so these clearly aren’t set in stone. Further out, there’s been a similar collapse in terminal rate pricing over recent days, with the deposit rate only expected to get to roughly 3.25%-3.50%, which is a big shift from the 4%-plus rates that had recently been expected.

Sticking with fixed income, credit widened further yesterday with Europe wider on the day as it caught up somewhat to the large moves in the US on Friday night. EUR HY Xover was +50bps wider to 476bps, while the EUR IG CDS index was +12bps wider to 94bps. On the other side of the Atlantic, the USD IG CDS was 8bps wider to 91bps and the USD HY CDS index was 36bps wider to 534bps – both of which are the widest levels since November.

When it came to equities, there was a much more divergent performance across regions and sectors. Bank stocks really suffered as mentioned above, but the broader S&P 500 recovered from an intraday low of -1.37% shortly after the open to post a modest -0.15% decline. Even with the recovery, volatility remained elevated, and the VIX index shot up further to end the day at a new high for 2023 of 26.5pts. By contrast in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-2.42%) had its worst day so far this year, with other major declines for the DAX (-3.04%), the CAC 40 (-2.90%) and the FTSE MIB (-4.03%).

With all that’s happening, today’s US CPI release suddenly feels like a second-tier concern. But it still could have an impact at the margins as the Fed decide whether to proceed with a hike next week, particularly if inflation comes in on the upside. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for headline CPI to come in +0.37%, whilst core CPI should be pretty similar at +0.36%. If those are correct, that would take the year-on-year numbers down to +6.0% for headline CPI and +5.4% for core CPI. As ever, keep an eye out on the components, since if the stickier ones like core services are remaining persistent, then that would be a concern.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US CPI release for February, the NFIB small business optimism index for February and the UK unemployment rate for January. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Governor Bowman.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Risk appetite remains constricted with APAC trade pressured, US CPI ahead – Newsquawk Euro Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 02:45 AM

  • APAC stocks declined amid a continuation of the selling in financials and with risk appetite constricted.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed down 3.1% on Monday.
  • DXY is firmer but still on a 103 handle, JPY lags peers, EUR/USD hovers just above 1.07.
  • 10yr UST futures pulled back from the historic bull-steepening on Monday whereby yields tumbled amid expectations of a less aggressive Fed.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include UK Labour Market Report, US CPI, Speech from Fed’s Bowman, BoJ Minutes (Jan), NBH Minutes (Feb), OPEC MOMR, Supply from UK, Italy & Germany.

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

US TRADE

EQUITIES

  • US stocks were mixed with price action choppy and in a state of inertia amid jitters after the recent bank failures of SVB and Signature Bank. Financials were slaughtered despite the Fed’s announcement of the Bank Term Funding Program and banking authorities declaring full protection to depositors, while tech and the defensive sectors fared better as money markets ramped up pricing of easier Fed policy.
  • SPX -0.15% at 3,855, NDX +0.79% at 11,923, DJIA -0.28% at 31,819, RUT -1.60% at 1,744.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Nomura forecasts a 25bps Fed rate cut and halt in QT at the March FOMC meeting.
  • Barclays sees the Fed leaving rates unchanged at the March FOMC “with financial stability concerns moving to the forefront” but continues to believe more hikes will come.
  • UBS expects the Fed to keep hiking despite banking troubles and feels the market is “overshooting in the opposite direction”, while it expects 25bps hikes at the next three meetings to 5.5% and said if core CPI comes in at 0.5-0.6% M/M, “the Fed may feel they have the ‘financial stability cover’ to even do 50bps in March”.

SVB/BANKS

  • Fed said it will disclose total loan amounts under the new bank programme weekly and details of the borrowers are to be released a year after it closes. Fed is also to probe its supervision of SVB and release the review by May 1st, while Fed Chair Powell said the SVB failure demands ‘thorough, transparent and swift review’, according to Bloomberg.
  • White House said the Treasury is working with bank regulators on the next steps and regulators have tools to deal with disruptions and supervise banks, while it reiterated that this is not a bailout.
  • Top Senate and top House Democrats said Congress will be looking closely at the causes behind the run on SVB and other banks, as well as how a similar crisis can be prevented in the future.
  • Silicon Valley Bank N.A. CEO said they are conducting business as usual within the US and expect to resume cross-border transactions in the coming days, while the CEO added the FDIC transferred all deposits and all assets of former Silicon Valley Bank to the newly created, full-service FDIC-operated ‘bridge bank’ and all depositors have full access to their money with deposits protected.
  • FDIC is still looking to sell SVB (SIVB) and told GOP senators it is planning another auction, according to WSJ sources.
  • Moody’s withdrew Signature Bank’s (SBNY) long-term and short-term local currency bank deposit ratings, while it downgraded its subordinate debt to C from BAA3 and will withdraw ratings. Furthermore, Moody’s placed multiple US banks under review for downgrade including Zions Bancorporation (ZION), Comerica (CMA), UMB (UMBF), Western Alliance (WAL), First Republic (FRC), Signature Bank (SBNY) and Intrust.
  • Large US banks are reportedly inundated with new depositors as smaller lenders face turmoil with JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and other large financial institutions trying to accommodate customers wanting to move deposits quickly, according to FT.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks declined amid a continuation of the selling in financials and with risk appetite constricted amid the fallout from the recent US bank collapses.
  • ASX 200 spent most of the session beneath the 7,000 level with the index pressured by substantial losses in nearly all sectors and amid headwinds from weak data releases in which Westpac consumer sentiment remained near historic lows and NAB business surveys deteriorated.
  • Nikkei 225 slumped due to heavy losses in financial stocks which occupied the list of the 10 worst performers, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange banking index suffered its worst day in over three years.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. retreated albeit with less aggressive selling in the mainland on reopening news as China is to resume the issuance of all types of visas for foreigners from March 15th.
  • US equity futures were contained (ES +0.3%) as participants await the incoming US inflation data.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a marginally lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed down 3.1% on Monday.

FX

  • DXY clawed back some of yesterday’s losses but remains on a 103 handle as 2-year yields rebounded from the largest drop since the early 1980s which was triggered by the dovish repricing of Fed rate expectations with money markets pricing rates to peak in May before potential cuts thereafter. Nomura became the first to call for a 25bps cut at next week’s FOMC meeting.
  • EUR/USD continued its steady retreat from near-term resistance at 1.0750 and with sources noting that the ECB’s hawkish plans are set to face bolder opposition amid the SVB fallout.
  • GBP/USD mildly faded some of its recent gains after stalling just shy of the 1.2200 handle.
  • USD/JPY rebounded overnight but failed to reclaim the 134.00 handle due to recent haven flows and following a brief dip to a four-week low at sub-133.00.
  • Antipodeans were lacklustre as the greenback found some composure and following weak consumer and business confidence surveys from Australia.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8949 vs exp. 6.8933 (prev. 6.9375)

FIXED INCOME

  • 10yr UST futures pulled back from the historic bull-steepening on Monday whereby yields tumbled on market repricing for a less aggressive Fed, while attention turns to the incoming US CPI data.
  • Bund futures took a breather from yesterday’s surge and retreated to below the 136.00 level.
  • 10yr JGB futures moved off contract highs after peaking near 149.00 but held on to much of yesterday’s gains after the 5yr JGB auction attracted a higher price and as Japan’s 10yr yield briefly slipped beneath the BoJ’s previous target of 25bps.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude futures remained pressured after recently testing YTD lows with headwinds from the depressed risk appetite after the US bank failures rather than anything energy-specific.
  • EIA said US total shale regions oil production for April is seen up about 69k BPD at 9.214mln BPD (prev. 86k BPD rise in March).
  • Spot gold gave back some of the prior day’s gains but just about held on to the psychological USD 1900/oz level with price action driven by fluctuations in yields and dollar moves.
  • Copper futures retreated after recent whipsawing and overnight risk aversion.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin extended on gains after the prior day’s surge and climbed above the USD 24,500 level.
  • US DoJ is probing the collapse of Do Kwon’s TerraUSD stablecoin and FBI and New York officials have questioned former Terraform Labs team members, according to WSJ.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • China is resuming the issuance of all types of visas for foreigners from March 15th.
  • US President Biden said he will talk to Chinese President Xi soon but didn’t specify when. Furthermore, National Security Adviser Sullivan said President Biden anticipates a call opportunity with Chinese President Xi once China’s government returns to work after the NPC, while Sullivan added the US had communicated with China over the AUKUS submarine pact and China’s military build-up.
  • EU seeks new controls to limit China acquiring high-tech and is exploring ways to police how European companies invest in production facilities overseas, according to FT.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Mar) 78.5 (Prev. 78.5)
  • Australian NAB Business Confidence (Feb) -4 (Prev. 6)
  • Australian NAB Business Conditions (Feb) 17 (Prev. 18)

GEOPOLITICS

  • White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said the US has been encouraging Chinese President Xi to reach out to Ukrainian President Zelensky, but Ukrainians have not received confirmation of a call.
  • UK Royal Navy warship escorted a Russian task group in the English Channel.
  • US President Biden said alongside Australian PM Albanese that he doesn’t view what they are doing as a challenge to anybody but is more about stability in the Indo-Pacific after AUKUS leaders met and agreed on a plan to deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.
  • North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea. South Korea said the missiles flew 620km and the repeated launches are a grave act of provocation threatening peace and security in the region. South Korea also said it will carry out combined drills with the US as planned and maintain readiness based on overwhelming capability, while the US military said North Korean missile launches do not pose an immediate threat to US personnel or territory or to their allies.

EU/UK

  • UK PM Sunak said UK banks are well capitalised and liquidity is strong.
  • UK PM Sunak invited US President Biden to visit Northern Ireland for the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, while President Biden said that he intends to go to Northern Ireland
  • UK Chancellor Hunt is to set out plans for 12 new investment zones in the Budget to “supercharge” growth in hi-tech industries, while the scheme is to be backed by GBP 80mln of investment over five years in each of the new high-growth zones, according to Sky News.

TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.38 PTS OR 0.72%    //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 448.01 PTS OR %  2.27      /The Nikkei closed DOWN 610.92%  PTS OR 2.19%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN  1.50%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.8765//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8746//    /Oil DOWN TO 73.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.43   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

Another front opens up against the USA, as North Korea fires another missile from a submarine.

The fronts:

1. North/South Korea

2 Ukraine/Russia

3. China/Taiwan

North Korea Fires Cruise Missiles From Submarine Amid Large US-S.Korea Drills

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 04:15 AM

North Korea’s to be expected muscle-flexing has begun in response to the US and South Korea going ahead with recently announced joint military exercises, expected to be one of the largest joint drills between the allies in recent history.

On Sunday North Korea fired at least one missile from the Sea of Japan. Notably it was from a submarine, which is a rarity given the past year’s spate of land-based launches. The Hill notes that “North Korea claimed to have fired two missiles from a submarine in the sea, but South Korean military officials said they only tracked one missile fired from the submarine near the North Korean port city of Sinpo.”

The sub-fired missile serves as a warning in conjunction with this week’s kick-off of 11 days of US-South Korea joint military exercises dubbed ‘Freedom Shield‘. T

The drills have been previewed as being the largest in a half-decade. The launch came within less than 24 hours of the start of the US drills. CNN details:

North Korea launched two missiles from a submarine in waters off its east coast over the weekend, according to state media, and vowed to take “the toughest counteraction” against the largest joint military drills by the United States and South Korea in years that kick off Monday.

Pyongyang’s official KCNA news agency said the “strategic cruise missiles” were launched on Sunday morning from a “8.24 Yongung” submarine in the Sea of Japan, also known in Korea as the East Sea. The same vessel was used to test North Korea’s first submarine-launched ballistic missile in 2016, CNN previously reported.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has lately warned of “unprecedented strong responses” to the joint drills if they go ahead, while his sister, Kim Yo Jong, warned that “the frequency of using the Pacific Ocean as our shooting range depends on the nature of the US military’s actions,” according to a prior statement posted on the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

So at a moment the war in Ukraine’s east continues to intensify, and as Beijing is flexing its muscle over Taiwan reunification, yet another conflict theatre could open up where Washington is on the ‘defensive’ as hawks try take a stand in bolstering US allies. 

END

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/

END

3c CHINA /

CHINA///MIDDLE EAST

China is to host a major middle east summit after its successful Iran Saudi deal. The uSA is losing influence rapidly

(zerohedge)

China To Host Major Middle East Summit After ‘Success’ Of Iran-Saudi Deal

MONDAY, MAR 13, 2023 – 06:00 PM

Via The Cradle,

A high-level gathering of Gulf Arab states and Iranian officials is on track to take place later this year in the Chinese capital Beijing, according to sources that spoke with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

Chinese President Xi Jinping pitched the idea for the summit during a regional summit he attended in Riyadh last December. According to the report published on Sunday, the leaders from the six-country Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) welcomed Xi’s proposal to reduce tensions with Iran.

On Friday, Beijing brokered a historic deal to restore relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. These two superpowers cut ties in 2016 and have historically backed rivaling factions in regional conflicts.

The agreement was praised across the Global South. It was described by many as a significant power play by China in becoming a top power broker in West Asia at a time when US influence continues to diminish.

This reality was made evident during last week’s secret talks between Iranian and Saudi officials in Beijing, where, per the WSJ, “all parties agreed not to use English in the negotiations, with speeches and documents conducted in Arabic, Farsi or Mandarin.”

The agreement gives Riyadh and Tehran two months to hammer out all details before the countries’ foreign ministers meet to sign a finalized deal. Sources say the Iran-GCC summit would occur “sometime after that.”

According to the report, the deal signed on Friday calls – among other things – for Saudi Arabia to order Iran International to “tone-down critical coverage” of the Islamic Republic. At the same time, Tehran reportedly agreed to “stop encouraging cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia” by Yemen’s Ansarallah resistance movement.

Saudi officials have hopes that Beijing can “use its economic ties to influence Iran’s behavior,” as China remains the biggest importer of Iranian oil.

According to Iran’s state-owned Mehr News Agency, ahead of Friday’s deal, China allowed Tehran to access parts of funds frozen in Chinese banks due to Washington’s “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign.

During his visit to Riyadh in December, Xi called on Arab states to remain “independent and defend their common interests,” adding that China “supports Arab states in independently exploring development paths suited to their national conditions and holding their future firmly in their own hands.”

He also vowed to import more oil and natural gas from Gulf Arab states while not interfering in their affairs, a departure from Washington’s long-standing policy of interference and domination.

end

4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS

HOLLAND

10,000 Dutch farmers continue their protest against Government’s crippling nitrogen emissions targets.  They protest at the Hague.

(Brooke/Remix)

10,000 Dutch Farmers Protest Govt’s Crippling Nitrogen Emissions Target In The Hague

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Protesters claim the Dutch government is lying about the extent of the emissions problem in order to grab privately owned land…

Thousands of Dutch farmers protested on Saturday against the government’s policies to reduce nitrogen emissions, warning they will put farms out of business and affect food production.

Hundreds of tractors from across the Netherlands could be seen driving to the event in The Hague ahead of regional elections this week, and more than 10,000 farmers were in attendance, according to the Reuters news agency.

Protesters accused the Dutch government of forcing farmers off of privately owned land in order to appease Brussels, and carried banners reading “No farmers, no food” and “There is no nitrogen ‘problem.’”

“We are fighting against a corrupt and unjust government,” Eva Vlaardingerbroek, a prominent campaigner in defense of the farmers, told attendees. She spoke of a government that “drives our farmers from their land” and which has “turned on its own population.”

“For centuries, our farmers have produced food for millions of people worldwide. And instead of what those liars in The Hague claim, they have done so in a responsible and sustainable way.”

“But our cabinet doesn’t care about nature. They have simply created a lie to steal our farmers’ land,” she added.

Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s administration has vowed to take radical action to meet its ambitious target of halving the country’s nitrogen emissions by 2030, and has identified the country’s large agriculture sector as being the main culprit due to its large livestock count and use of fertilizers.

Last year, the government announced plans to reduce livestock numbers by a third, while farmers have also been told their land could be subject to compulsory buyouts.

Agricultural workers have staged several demonstrations against the government policy, blocking motorways and supermarket distribution centers in mass protests last year.

“These reductions are so severe that those rural communities will be totally devastated economically,” said Sander van Diepen, a spokesperson for the Dutch agricultural and horticultural association, LTO Nederland, in June last year.

Henk Staghouwer, the former Dutch agriculture minister appointed to see through the plans by Mark Rutte, resigned in September last year after a tumultuous summer fraught with mass demonstrations, admitting that upon reflection he was not “the right person to oversee the tasks in front of me.”

Regional elections for the Dutch Senate are scheduled to take place on March 15.

END

SWITZERLAND/CREDIT SUISSE

Credit Suisse’s stock falls another 4% hitting a new low on its release of its annual statement.  They indicated material weaknesses in its reporting as well as continual outflows of deposits.

(zerohedge)

Credit Suisse Hits New Low As “Material Weaknesses” Found In Financial Reporting, Outflows Continue

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 07:45 AM

Credit Suisse Group AG published its annual report, slated for release last Thursday but was delayed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission over “material weaknesses” in its internal controls over financial reporting. 

In the annual report on Tuesday, the embattled Swiss lender said, “management did not design and maintain an effective risk assessment process to identify and analyze the risk of material misstatements in its financial statements.”

Credit Suisse disclosed last week, after a last-minute call from the SEC it would delay its annual report. The issues, described as “technical,” were related to cash flow statements going back to 2019. 

Shares of the Swiss lender fell 4%. The stock trades at a new all-time low in European trading. 

Despite initiating a campaign to regain clients, Credit Suisse reported that client deposit outflows continued this month. As a consequence of the outflows, the bank also admitted that it had utilized its liquidity buffers. It warned these circumstances have “exacerbated and may continue to exacerbate” liquidity risks. 

Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner told investors at a conference hosted by Morgan Stanley on Tuesday that he wants to rebuild what was lost following the restructuring, “and once we are there, we go beyond and grow the business again.”

As part of the ongoing restructuring aimed at restoring profitability, the bank proposed granting equity to senior managers in its investment banking arm, CS First Boston, which is due to be spun off imminently. Under the plan, staff members could own as much as 20% of shares in the venture. 

END

EU/BANKRUPTCIES

EU bankruptcies soaring!!

(Nick Corbishley/NakedCapitalism.com)

Bankruptcies Soar Across EU, As Companies Hit Wall At Fastest Rate Since Records Began In 2015

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com,

Legions of European companies are succumbing to the final straw of Europe’s largely self-inflicted energy crisis. 

Bankruptcy proceedings in the Canary Islands, Spain’s heavily tourism-dependent island chain, soared a whopping 276% year over year in 2022, according to the latest data published by the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) in its report, “The Effects of the Economic Crisis on Judicial Bodies.” The archipelago also saw the highest rate of dismissal claims in Spain, with around 400 of every 100,000 inhabitants losing their jobs.

But this trend is not unique to the Canary Islands, nor indeed Spain. It is happening across large swathes of Europe’s economies, as legions of businesses succumb to the final straw of Europe’s largely self-inflicted energy crisis.

In the EU as a whole the number of bankruptcy declarations initiated by businesses increased substantially (26.8%) quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, reaching the highest levels on record since Eurostat began collecting EU-wide bankruptcy data in 2015. The number of bankruptcy declarations increased during all four quarters of 2022. As the Eurostat graph below shows, at the current rate of business destruction it won’t be long before businesses are closing at a faster rate than they are opening.

This trend, of course, was not hard to foresee. In August 2022, I warned that the EU’s largely self-inflicted energy crisis and resulting inflation is tipping legions of small businesses over the edge:

After reeling from one crisis to another, Europe’s heavily indebted and deeply debilitated small businesses — the backbone of the economy — face the ultimate threat from energy shortages and soaring prices.

With the specter of stagflation looming large over Europe and the price of energy rising at a blistering pace, hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions, of small businesses face the grim prospect of closure this winter. In the UK, much of the news cycle in recent weeks has been dominated by the plight of struggling families grappling with surging energy bills. But many businesses are, if anything, in an even worse pickle, since they don’t have price caps on the energy they pay. Some business owners are facing an increase in bills of more than 350%.

Across Europe small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), particularly in sectors like travel and tourism, culture and hospitality, have borne much of the brunt of the economic fallout of the pandemic. The stimulus packages — including furlough programs, debt moratoriums and low-interest emergency loans — helped to tide over many (but not all) of the worst-hit businesses but that support has ended. Meanwhile many of the economic problems spawned by the pandemic, including supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages, continue to linger. Energy shortages and surging prices are likely to be the final straw.

In 2022, inflation in the EU tripled to 9.2%, its highest reading ever. According to Eurostat, all economic sectors witnessed a rise in the number of bankruptcies in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous one. But the hardest hit sectors were transportation and storage (+72.2%), accommodation and food services (+39.4%), education, health and social activities (+29.5%), sectors that had already suffered significantly during the pandemic.

The contrast with the pre-pandemic bankruptcy rate is particularly striking. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 — the last quarter before the Covid-19 lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions came into effect — bankruptcies in the accommodation and food services sector surged by 97.7%, while the transportation and storage industry registered a similarly noteworthy 85.7% increase.

As I reported in February, companies in the United Kingdom, now a distinctly non-EU member, are hitting the wall at the fastest rate since the Global Financial Crisis. Much the same is happening across large parts of the European mainland.

The country that witnessed the highest rise (64%) in bankruptcies last year was Spain, whose economy actually grew by 4.7% according to the OECD. This can be partly explained by a new restructuring law enacted in late October, which simplifies and accelerates the debt restructuring process. Yet Spain also registered the second highest rise in bankruptcies in 2021, behind Romania. It is hoped that the insolvency rules will help reduce the country’s high bankruptcy rates, thereby attracting investment into the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy. For the moment it appears to be doing the opposite.

Another reason for the recent sharp rise in bankruptcies in Spain is that the obligation to file for bankruptcy was suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic to prevent an avalanche of business failures. This meant that many companies that would have hit the wall, including some longstanding zombie firms, were given a stay of execution. That suspension was lifted in July 2022. The result, as feared, has been an avalanche of business failures.

Other EU countries that have seen a notable increase in bankruptcies in 2022 include Austria (57%), France (51%), Belgium (42%), the Netherlands (18%) and Finland (8.5%). It is small and medium-size companies that are at the sharpest end of this trend. As Euractiv reported in January, insolvencies in France and across Europe have hurt small businesses, particularly one-person outfits, the most:

Yet [a report from data analytics consultancy] Altares… shows the situation is becoming increasingly worrying [for] larger SMEs with 10-99 employees.

“3,214 SME insolvencies were recorded in 2022 compared to 1,804 in 2021, a surge of +78% over one year,” the report reads. A third of these insolvencies occurred in the last three months of 2022, representing a 93% increase.

“When SMEs fall, it is the whole local economic network that is impacted,” Thierry Millon, who directed the study, told EURACTIV France.

“They can no longer pay their suppliers, and the job loss is much greater across the value chain,” he said. What’s of particular concern to him is that some of these SMEs were economically sound to start with before they were forced to unwind.

Soaring energy bills, low economic growth and the numerous financial constraints imposed by the repayment of state-guaranteed loans all contribute to this trend.

The “whatever it takes” era coined by President Emmanuel Macron to help companies by any means possible during the pandemic is also over.

This is a common theme in many countries: the financial, fiscal and furlough-based safety nets that were erected for businesses during the pandemic have long disappeared. A lot of the small in-person businesses that remained standing during the pandemic took on huge amounts of debt to weather the lockdowns and other restrictions, often for the first time. Once economies began reopening, not only did they have to start repaying those loans; they had to do so against a backdrop of surging input prices and, in some sectors, lacklustre demand.

It is easy to forget that long before Russian and Ukrainian soldiers began exchanging fire in February 2022, inflation was already rising fast in most Western economies, due to a cocktail of factors including, most notably, ongoing supply chain shocks and dislocations. Other factors include post-lockdown pent-up demand, worker shortages and the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus unleashed during the pandemic.

Central banks have since begun hiking rates in a largely vain attempt to contain inflation. In the process they are making it even harder for heavily indebted consumers and businesses to service their debts.

For many businesses, the conflict in Ukraine and the spiralling rise in energy prices triggered by the US and EU’s backfiring sanctions on Russia were the final straw. In Belgium three-quarters of independent retailers fear bankruptcies over the coming months, according to market analysis firm GraydonCreditsafe. Shopkeepers blame their financial difficulties on multiple factors, including soaring energy bills, government-mandated wage indexations, and broader inflation.

But curiously, not all countries are suffering a sharp rise in bankruptcies. Some, such as Italy, Portugal, Poland, Rumania and Slovakia, actually registered fewer bankruptcies in 2022 than 2021, for reasons that are not entirely clear to this humble blogger but presumably have to do with each country’s particular bankruptcy rules legislation, the financial support programs offered to companies and ongoing debt moratoriums. Perhaps NC readers living in those countries can help shed light on the situation.

The full-year data for Germany is not yet available, but the data to November (as shown in the Trading Economics graphic below) suggest that the long-term downward trend in bankrupcties is beginning to reverse, albeit slowly.

The National Association of German Cooperative Banks (BVR) expects significantly more company bankruptcies in 2023, reports the German business weekly Wirtschaftswoche. Compared to 2022, BVR has forecast an increase of around 12% to approximately 16,300 insolvencies.

That would still be lower than the levels pre-Covid. Generous state-aid programs throughout the pandemic and the energy crisis have played an important role in protecting German companies from bankruptcy, the WW article notes. This is a luxury that other, more indebted EU governments can ill afford to offer. Another key factor in staving off (for now!) a dramatic surge in bankruptcies is the high levels of equity held by many German companies.

However, while German businesses may be hitting the wall in fewer numbers, many larger companies are voting with their feet and relocating a large part of their operations elsewhere. They include the automotive giants BMW and Volkswagen. Just a few days ago BASF, the world’s largest chemical company, unveiled plans to downsize its production in Europe, closing several of its German production facilities and laying off around 2,600 workers. The German chemicals giant cited increased energy prices as the main reason for its decision.

end

 5.UKRAINE// RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

UKRAINE//RUSSIA/USA/

Kremlin Blames US For Crashed Drone: ‘Flying With Transponders Off Towards Russian Border’

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 03:10 PM

Update(1510ET): After nearly two hours since the story first broke in international press, the Kremlin has issued its version of events concerning the US drone crash in the Black Sea Tuesday. The Russian Defense Ministry said nothing about the Pentagon’s allegations that a Russian Su-27 aircraft dumped fuel on the MQ-9 drone, but instead blamed the pair of Russian jets’ erratic maneuvering for the collision. 

“US drone MQ-9 fell into the Black Sea on Tuesday morning due to its own sharp maneuvering, Russian fighters did not come into contact with it and did not use weapons, the Russian Defense Ministry said,” according to Russian media. The statement is as follows [emphasis ours]:

“As a result of sharp maneuvering around 09:30 Moscow time [06:30 GMT], unmanned aerial vehicle MQ-9 went into an uncontrolled flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface. The Russian fighters did not use airborne weapons, did not come into contact with the unmanned aerial vehicle and returned safely to their home airfield” the ministry said.

The Russian fighters had been scrambled in response to the drone being picked up on radar: “The ministry clarified that on the morning of March 14, the airspace control of the Russian Aerospace Forces had recorded the flight of US unmanned aerial vehicle MQ-9 over the Black Sea in the region of the Crimean peninsula in the direction of the Russian state border.” However, the ministry further noted that the UAV had been flying with its transponders turned off while headed towards Russia’s border.

Interestingly, the Kremlin is accusing the Pentagon of ignoring military-to-military protocols related to the war in Ukraine, established in order to avoid inadvertent NATO-Russia clashes:

The flight of the drone “was carried out with transponders turned off, violating the boundaries of the area of the temporary regime for the use of airspace, established for the purpose of conducting a special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace and published in accordance with international standards,” the MoD said.

So given the Russian side has confirmed there was no shootdown, both sides can collectively breath a sigh of relief for now, given this was a highly dangerous incident that had the potential to unleash a shooting war as the two superpower rivals continue crisscrossing airspace over the Black Sea, not far from frontline fighting in Ukraine.

* * *

Update(1328ET)The US military statement of events, blaming a pair of Russian fighter jets for “reckless” maneuvers which resulted in the MQ-9 drone being struck and crashing in international waters at a “complete loss”:

Two Russian Su-27 aircraft conducted an unsafe and unprofessional intercept with a U.S. Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance unmanned MQ-9 aircraft that was operating within international airspace over the Black Sea today. 

At approximately 7:03 AM (CET), one of the Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner. This incident demonstrates a lack of competence in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional. 

“Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9,” said U.S. Air Force Gen. James B. Hecker, commander, U.S. Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa. “In fact, this unsafe and unprofessional act by the Russians nearly caused both aircraft to crash.”

“U.S. and Allied aircraft will continue to operate in international airspace and we call on the Russians to conduct themselves professionally and safely,” Hecker added. 

This incident follows a pattern of dangerous actions by Russian pilots while interacting with U.S. and Allied aircraft over international airspace, including over the Black Sea. These aggressive actions by Russian aircrew are dangerous and could lead to miscalculation and unintended escalation. 

NSC spokesman John Kirby followed up by saying the US aircraft posed no threat to anyone, and that it was operating in international airspace. He additionally confirmed it was brought down in international waters. Presumably there may be a recovery operation underway.

Kirby stressed in a briefing, “If the message is that they want to deter or dissuade us from flying and operating in international airspace over the Black Sea, that message will fail.”

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Reaction from Trump Jr…

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* * *

A major incident involving a US military drone is being widely reported as happening over the Black Sea on Tuesday, with NATO sources telling AFP there’s been an “incident” and that an investigation is ongoing. Western military sources identified that a US-made Reaper drone may have crashed for as yet unknown reasons:

“Something happened but we don’t have confirmation that the drone has been shot down. An investigation is underway,” one of two Western sources who confirmed “an incident” told AFP.

“The sources, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, did not say which country was operating the drone, which is used extensively by the United States as well as many of its NATO allies,” the AFP report continues.

As more details trickled out in the minutes following initial reports, a war correspondent for Politico is citing US European Command officials who say the US drone has been downed over the Black Sea.

A Russian Su-27 fighter collided with a US MQ-9 drone over the Black Sea this morning, causing the drone to crash, US European Command says,” Politico Paul McLeary writes.

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Naturally, the next question is what happened to the Russian jet… did it too crash? If so, the incident poses great danger for possible imminent US-Russia escalation, given this is the kind of rare direct military encounter and incident that many have long feared could unleash a deadly spiral of escalation.

The White House was briefed over the incident, according to NSC spokesman John Kirby:

BIDEN BRIEFED ON RUSSIA JET INCIDENT THIS MORNING: KIRBY

However, some pundits and reporters are already positing a narrative of events which contradicts the Pentagon’s. Is Pentagon leadership hoping to avoid WW3 by downplaying it as a mere accident (in the scenario this was actually a shootdown incident)? The Kremlin version of events will be interesting to hear as the aftermath unfolds.

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developing…

Slight lift of the curtain

On or about April 26th will be the announcement of the new BRICS currency, unless events move faster and they may. And it is being said that June deliveries of oil will be in the new currency from OPEC. This was planned for and needed the coming together of Iran and Saudi  Arabia so that all major oil supplies were priced this way. Today, Belarus is in Iran and new initiatives have already been agreed to, which is why a Belarusian delegation was in China the other week. Belarus will be a very real part of the trade bloc forming as the most westerly point. Poland has lost big time its’ more immediate potential on the Silk Road. For now Europe is on its’ own. 

Meanwhile in America: The Republicans on the House Oversight Committee have been working with four witnesses with close ties to the Bidens, who have provided documents and other evidence tying the Bidens to the Chinese Communist Party.

“It’s as bad as we thought… Since we’ve last spoken we have bank records in hand.  We have individuals who are working with our committee,” Committee chair James Comer (R-KY) told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo on “Sunday Morning Futures.”

“In the last two weeks we’ve met with either these individuals personally or with their attorneys.  And that would be four individuals who had ties in with the Biden family in their various schemes around the world. So now we have in hand documents  We have in hand documents in hand that show just how the Biden family was getting money from the Chinese Communist Party.This clown show will go down soon enough and with It will go the ship of fools. By June or sooner this show will unveil another chapter of confusion and stress. There is other evidence collected and being verified again to include certain European involvement in election thievery and manipulation  and what is being sought and confirmed  is the Chinese money trail. It will be found and confirmed. Relationships with China and America will suffer as this gets more discourse and wider disclosure. Russia was never the enemy of America. Rather it was always the Chinese who sought to infiltrate America to hasten its’ demise. And naive Neocons blinded by hate of all things Russian lusting for its’ wealth and destruction have acted to the benefit of Chinese ambitions. More fool them because it has delivered  a needless and pointless conflict using the Ukraine as proxy wasting money and lives. Thus delivering a major upcoming broadside to America, Americans and the hegemony of the USD. Have no illusions this is a game changer. Because our entire western world is about to be turned upside down by forces never encountered in the midst of a political crisis in America that will impact everything. And this will lead to global  financial crisis at the same time. This is also why Russia has been holding back because Zelensky and his crowd are fools and are very much expendable ones. When the spigot of Federal Reserve printing is cut off the whole mess will collapse with 2 weeks leaving a bankrupt Ukraine with a European hangover of grief and angst over what comes forth. 

Buckle up buttercup!

END

Robert H to us:

Massive Media Coverup After Putin’s Hypersonic Missiles Decimate NATO Command in Ukraine | VT | Alternative Foreign Policy Media

This should have terrified the Neocons except they think they safely direct things from DC. Well they are wrong. Yes, the Pentagon crowd got the message.
We will see if anyone else wakes up. And Polish Ambitions or dreams of grandeur need a stiff drink because these same missiles will reduce Poland to the Stone Age within hours in a confrontation. There will be no mercy. While Poland can go further into debt with the largest army, no incursions into the Ukraine or Belarus will be tolerated. Xi will explain realities to Zelensky soon enough because Belarus will be accepted into the new BRICS as the most westerly end of the Silk Road. And the result of the visit to Iran yesterday will be many cutting edge drones the Belarusians did not have in return of fertilizers and the like.
Meanwhile in the land of illusion it seems bank losses on a mark to market basis in treasuries exceeds $620 billion but it is ok. Yes ok until the day trade is no longer in USD. As it is there is mad rush to switch to Yuan settlement over the USD. Yellen was publicly shown to be the fool. Having first said no bailouts and then being overruled because with her logic the economy would have collapsed by May.
It is has been a long time since such an inept group was in charge of anything in DC.

end

LATVIA/UKRAINE

You have to be kidding me? Latvia is shipping cars seized from drunk drivers and shipping them to Ukraine

(zerohedge)

Latvia Is Shipping Cars Seized From Drunk Drivers To Ukraine

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 02:45 AM

The Latvian government last month approved a plan to donate cars seized from drunk drivers to Ukraine, in what it says is a creative scheme (or else we could say publicity-seeking scheme) to help the war effort there.

The first collection of cars have been shipped, as last week BBC confirmed that “Eight seized vehicles left a car pound in the capital, Riga, on Wednesday and are due to cross the border soon.”

The cars will reportedly go to the Ukrainian military as well as hospitals. Vehicles in Latvia had previously been impounded at high rates due to the country having among the worst drunk driving problems in Europe, based on the size of the population.

It was only last year that lawmakers attempted a severe crackdown on the problem, changing the law to create the possibility of vehicle seizures in instances where a driver is found to have three times the legal limit of alcohol in their system. 

“No-one expected that people are drunk-driving so many vehicles,” the NGO’s founder [Twitter Convoy], Reinis Poznaks, told Reuters news agency“They can’t sell them as fast as people are drinking. So that’s why I came with the idea – send them to Ukraine.”

Since the confiscation law went into effect, some two hundred cars have been taken from drunk drivers. Many if not all of these will now go to Ukraine. 

Latvian Finance Minister Arvils Aseradens said of the program to ship them to Ukraine, “We are ready to do practically anything to support Ukrainians.”

Last week, a group of police officers closed down an entire road in Riga in order to do mass drinking and driving checks, but the dragnet reportedly came up with nothing after traffic was stopped for at least half an hour.

Likely such inconveniences to motorists will only increase, given the recent media attention and gimmicky linkage to the Ukraine situation. Some officials and pundits are actually calling for the program to be implemented more broadly in Europe.

END

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:



Shocking Study Out of Australia Shows up to a 26 Fold Increase in Excess Mortality in 2021 and 2022. Consistent With American Insurance Companies Findings.

by Brian LupoMar. 14, 2023 7:30 am

A pre-print study published in February 2023 by Dr. Wilson Sy shows an incredible analysis of excess mortality data in Australia.  Based on his research and analysis of the data, Dr. Sy concluded that there is an excess death rate in 2021 that is 7-fold higher than than 2020 and 14-fold in 2022.  The 2022 data was only available up to September 2022.  Dr. Sy predicts the final months of 2022 could amount to a 19-fold increase overall for that year.

Yes, you heard that right: a 7-fold and potentially 19-fold increase in excess mortality in 2021 and 2022, respectively, over 2020, the “year of the pandemic”.

To be clear:  Dr. Sy is not a medical doctor, but as you will see, his research and analysis is based solely off of data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and requires minimal, if any, medical expertise.

Dr. Sy began analyzing excess mortality data ranging back to 2015 through September 2022.  He was able to draw concerning conclusions based on the ABS data:

Based on the data Dr. Sy analyzed, he was able to conclude that excess deaths increased from 1,582 in 2020 to 10,912 in 2021 and 22,837 in 2022 (thru September).  He estimates the 2022 final number will be around 30,449, or more than 19 times the “pandemic year” of 2020.

He also concluded that “All Cause Mortality” began to significantly trend upward in 2021 as evidenced in the chart below:

According to Dr. Sy, Australia “moved the goal posts” for 2022:  they changed the baseline definitions for calculating excess mortality by taking the average excess deaths of only four years, 2017-2019 and 2021, skipping 2020, rather than the “normal” baseline of the previous five consecutive years:

Why would the Australian authorities change the baseline definition by excluding 2020?  And why was 2020 “significantly lower than expected” in certain periods despite the on going “pandemic” that destroyed the middle to lower class with draconian lockdowns and mandates?

One of the interesting observations from this report is that flu and pneumonia mortality in Australia dropped drastically in 2020.  Dr. Sy notes that this could potentially be due to misdiagnosis of COVID-19 rather than influenza based on a CDC “Lab Alert” that suggests the RT-PCR tests cannot differentiate between the COVID virus and the influenza virus.  The CDC alert suggests labs “consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses.”

In the chart below, the blue bars represent the 5-year average of Influenza and Pneumonia deaths.  The red bars depict the 2020 death rates:

When you factor in COVID deaths, however, the months with the most dramatic differences shown above take a wild turn:

These conclusions are supportive of a claim made by J Scott Davison, the CEO of OneAmerica Insurance Company, back in January 2022.  Davison joined an Indiana Chamber of Commerce roundtable discussion on the impacts of COVID-19.  In this discussion, he revealed their group life insurance was seeing “the highest death rates they’ve ever seen in the history of this business”.  He says this increase of 40% excess mortality over pre pandemic levels is consistent throughout the industry and that it is primarily working aged people that are 18-64 that are dying.  Davison emphasizes that a “3-sigma or 1 in 200 year catastrophe would be a 10% increase over pre-pandemic, so a 40% [increase] is just unheard of.  And what the data is showing us is that the deaths being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working age people from the pandemic.  It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are just up huge huge numbers.”

Whitmer admits on Sunday that her administration went too far!

(zerohedge)

Michigan Governor Admits COVID-19 Lockdowns Went Too Far

MONDAY, MAR 13, 2023 – 07:00 PM

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) admitted on Sunday that her administration’s pandemic-era lockdown policies went too far, such as her April 2020 executive order barring most stores from selling gardening supplies, including seeds and plants, to Americans who wanted to grow their own fruits and vegetables.

“There were moments where, you know, we had to make some decisions that in retrospect don’t make a lot of sense, right? If you went to the hardware store, you could go to the hardware store but we didn’t want people to be congregating around the garden supplies,” Whitmer told CNN’s Chris Wallace.

“People said ‘oh, she’s outlawed seeds.’ It was February in Michigan, no one was planting anyway,” she continued (except it was in April). “But that being said, some of those policies I look back and think, you know, maybe that was a little more than what we needed to do.”

Whitmer’s office even published a list of prohibited items deemed “not necessary to sustain or protect life,” which couldn’t be sold during the height of the pandemic, and which required that businesses physically restrict customers from certain areas of stores, or to remove nonessential items – including gardening items, flooring materials, furniture and paint.

Just weeks after Whitmer imposed the statewide controversial ban, the order was rescinded due to widespread backlash, including from the Institute for Justice.

In a letter (pdf), the non-profit law firm criticized the governor’s “unconstitutional prohibition” for “impeding the rights of the many Michigan families who seek to grow their own food.” -Epoch Times

Whitmer’s order even banned travel from one residence to another, including vacation properties, rental properties, or second homes within the state.

end

Dr Paul Alexander

Dr. Ramin Oskoui: ‘Biden Healthcare Proposal Too little too late especially when it comes to Medicare and Prescription Drug costs’; I find sage in what he has also written prior on this vexing issue

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 14
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

SOURCE:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/07/fact-sheet-the-presidents-budget-extending-medicare-solvency-by-25-years-or-more-strengthening-medicare-and-lowering-health-care-costs/

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

4 KEY prior articles Dr. Oskoui wrote, raises serious issues on drug pricing for our consideration; I particularly appreciated the 4th on healthcare myths:

i)https://www.lifezette.com/2017/02/tough-talk-no-action-yet-rising-drug-prices/

ii)https://www.lifezette.com/2016/07/why-you-keep-paying-more-for-care/

iii)https://www.lifezette.com/2016/01/why-you-cant-afford-your-medication/

iv)https://www.lifezette.com/2017/05/debunking-four-of-the-most-common-health-care-myths/

end

Remember this in France, can’t get into the grocery without a vaccine passport? It ain’t over yet, the beasts, the malfeasants, the Untermensch have not stopped yet, the CDC & NIH & FDA & others

Remember the madness in Spain with the surfer out there on her own and the many police etc., remember their madness?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 14
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

JaviZone @JavierSanz

La positivo en coronavirus huyendo de la policía tras salir del agua …. eetoy colgando en instagram todo. Acaba de ser engrilletada. instagram.com/javizone

Image

11:14 AM ∙ Sep 7, 2020


196Likes81Retweets

Tony @_Mrtdogg

Unreal scenes in France as people not allowed into supermarkets without”covid passports”.

Image

1:45 PM ∙ Aug 19, 20214,397Likes2,590Retweets

Kevin Bass (MD), please go and do your homework, you are 3 years too late, seeking amnesty you won’t get, and you have no clue what the hell junk you are saying; show us the data, show us the evidence

show us something that these shots do stop transmission for 3 months; me thinks you tried to bait me and you did; stop talking junk, there is no, zero evidence this shot ever stopped transmission

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 14
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

You came 3 years after we have been waging war and you were part of the problem; you talk as if you have something to teach us when you were part of the horrors and deaths; so go back, think how you will ask forgiveness for the harms you caused with your lockdown lunacy and vaccine madness and try again, but this time, be a bit humble for it is one thing to be obnoxious and ‘out of order’, it is another to have no clue what you are saying. Every single thing you talk about has already been dealt with; We welcome you in the fight, anyone who joins, early, late, whatever, please help, but don’t think that MD title (in training or not) gives you a leg up, it actually should be hidden, it is the MDs who have us in the shit we are in. It is the MDs who helped cost lives. So sssshhhhhhh. Learn some humility. Start there and do not think we do not know you caused much harm.

end

Now, now after he forced the COVID gene shot on Germans, the German minister Karl Lauterbach acknowledges serious risks of corona vaccines; so what do you as Germans do? Do you jail him?

1 in 500 vaccinees experience significant side effects; 1 in 3,500 vaccinees suffer from fatal or life-threatening side effects; Karl Lauterbach admitted last night that he was aware of serious risks

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 13
 
SAVE▷  LISTEN
 

SOURCE:

https://fvd.nl/nieuws/duitse-minister-erkent-ernstige-risicos-coronavaccins

DR PANDA

end



VACCINE IMPACT//

Bank Runs Continue as Multiple Banks on Verge of Collapse

March 13, 2023 5:38 pm

While the Fed’s move yesterday (Sunday, March 12th) to bailout depositors from the Big Tech banks that crashed in recent days may have prevented a stock market crash today, it did not stop the bank runs, and more than 30 banks halted trading at one point today. Most banking is done online now, so long lines at banks to withdraw funds are not something most are going to see these days. What is happening instead is that customers are withdrawing their funds from the riskier, mostly smaller banks, and putting them into larger banks that they believe are “too big to fail” because they believe the Fed will step in to prevent that. While this is quickly turning into a partisan issue with each side blaming the other, open up your wallet and look at the color of your federal reserve notes (known as U.S. dollars). They are GREEN, not blue, and not red. You “reap what you sow” is a fact of life, not only in agriculture (you can’t plant corn and expect to harvest watermelons), but also in the financial world, and after years of corruption in the business world and financial markets, the time to reap the consequences seems to be upon us.  America has prospered for too long off the backs of cheap labor outside the U.S. while investments and start up firms have become just as risky and worthless as gambling in Las Vegas, throwing money around as entertainment without producing anything of real value. This is a MORAL issue, not a political issue. The time to pay off our debts that we have immorally been ignoring for decades, no matter which political office has been in power, is now upon us it would seem.

Read More…


Canada is now Giving COVID-19 Vaccines to Minors Without Parental Consent – Doctors are Now a Hazard to Your Child’s Health

March 13, 2023 5:48 pm

This evil practice of coercing children to accept COVID injections without their parents’ approval is not only happening in Canada, it is happening in the United States as well, as some states allow children as young as 12-years-old to get COVID injections without their parents’ knowledge or approval.

Read More…

Read More…

VACCINE INJURY//

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News
Pilot Dies Suddenly Shortly before Flying Packed Passenger JetA British Airways pilot has collapsed and died suddenly after suffering a heart attack shortly before he was due to fly a packed passenger jet.READ MORE
First Republic Bank Plunges 66%, Western Alliance Down 62%, Customers Begin Lining UpThe banking crisis deepened on Monday morning as several banks plunged in pre-market trading, causing customers to begin lining up to withdraw their funds.READ MORE
Biden: Silicon Valley Bank Investors Will ‘Lose Their Money’President Joe Biden has said that investors in the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank will “lose their money” because “that’s how capitalism works.”READ MORE
Don Lemon Gets Humiliated at Oscars as Hollywood Turns on CNN StarCNN host Don Lemon got humiliated at the Oscars last night as Hollywood has finally turned on the embattled news anchor over his anti-women rhetoric.READ MORE
Jan 6 Videos Show Antifa Infiltrating Trump Supporters, Inciting ViolencePreviously censored videos from Jan. 6 have remerged that show members of the far-left group Antifa infiltrating crowds of Trump supporters at the U.S. Capitol and inciting violence.READ MORE
Fauci Rages over Elon Musk’s ‘Craziness’ and ‘Disinformation’ about Pandemic: ‘Prosecute Me for What?’Twitter boss Elon Musk appears to have hit a raw nerve with his criticisms of Dr. Anthony Fauci’s handling of the pandemic.READ MORE
Canadian Catholic Student Arrested after Saying Men and Women Are DifferentA teenage Canadian Catholic school student has been arrested over his Christian beliefs after he said that men and women are different.READ MORE
Elon Musk Fires Back at Facebook’s Plan to Launch a Twitter Rival, Calls Mark Zuckerberg a ‘Copy Cat’Elon Musk has responded to reports that Facebook’s parent company Meta is planning to launch a new social media platform to challenge Twitter.READ MORE
New York’s Signature Bank Closed Down by Regulators over ‘Systemic Risk’Regulators have shut down New York’s cryptocurrency-focused Signature Bank in an effort to prevent the banking crisis from spreading.READ MORE
‘The Office’ Actor Blasts Anti-Christian Bias in HollywoodActor Rainn Wilson has called out the anti-Christian bias in Hollywood over the way Bible-reading characters are portrayed in TV and film.READ MORE
DOJ Hit with Legal Motion after Truth Emerges about Jan 6Democrat President Joe Biden’s Department of Justice has been hit with a legal motion after explosive revelations emerged about what really transpired on January 6, 2021.READ MORE
Mike Pence Attacks Trump over Jan 6: He ‘Endangered My Family,’ ‘History Will Hold Him Accountable’Mike Pence unloaded on President Donal Trump at the Gridiron Club Dinner in Washington, D.C. on Saturday.READ MORE
Keith Olbermann Tries to Pick a Fight with Elon Musk, Gets HumiliatedMedia leftist Keith Olbermann humiliated himself when he tried to call out Elon Musk over his response to the Jan. 6 Tapes.READ MORE

 

Pilot Dies Suddenly Shortly before Flying Packed Passenger Jet

end

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

Mismatch Of The Decade

BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 03:25 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Total panic, with 2-year US bond yields falling the most in one day since Volcker, eclipsing declines seen post-2008, 9/11, and 1987. That’s what we got yesterday despite President Biden saying the banking system was fine, the Fed saying the same, the FDIC backstopping depositors, and every bank analyst saying there is no systemic risk. Regardless, small banks were hammered not just in the US but globally, large banks given a kicking to boot, and everyone bought bonds.

The utter chaos we are seeing is ostensibly because of an asset-liability mismatch at a few small US banks, which regularly fail without garnering any attention. Then again, Ken Griffin of Citadel says “US capitalism is breaking down before our eyes.” Ironically, given the ostensible crisis trigger is the Fed raising rates while certain CFOs opted not to hedge, bond yields are now tumbling at such a pace that anyone short now faces a bloodbath. Do they get a bailout by not having to mark to market? If not, why not? One starts to see what Citadel are talking about.

There are now even market calls that the Fed will not only not go the previously expected 50bps in March, nor 25bps, nor pause, but actually cut rates 25bp. Moreover, all other central banks without the same non-systemic banking issues as the US are apparently going to follow suite. That’s with headline US inflation out today quite likely to run hot (expectations are 0.4% m-o-m, 6.0% y-o-y headline, 0.4% m-o-m, 5.6% y-o-y core), and with the last payrolls print of 311K and unemployment still close to a five-decade low at 3.6%.

We’ve previously discussed the different levels of equilibrium interest rates various parts of the economy require, but more broadly the financial economy that produces ‘assets’ is not the real economy that produces goods and services. The first is in trouble because of rising rates and a lack of hedging. The second is not doing as well as some might say either: but is seeing high inflation. If rates are not to address this then, as a political realist, there is nothing to stop inflation other than saying “what goes up must come down”. And, of course, assets can then only go up.

Maybe central banks will pivot. If so, don’t expect me, or markets, to take anything they say seriously again. More likely, there is a mismatch between the financial-economy’s screaming and what central banks think the *real* economy requires. It’s a good job nobody needs to hedge interest rate risk for a year, he said sarcastically, because there’s a lot more volatility ahead.   

Indeed, taking a global view, as this Daily tries to do, the Fed and other central banks don’t just face a difficult balancing act between inflation and financial stability but a new ‘trilemma’ of inflation, financial stability, and national security.

The Pentagon says “production equals deterrence,” not ‘more financial assets and apps, stat!’ Yet as China announces a Middle East pow-wow with the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iran, CNY is bought as a safe haven(!), and Xi calls for the PLA to become a ‘great wall of steel’, the Pentagon’s likely budget surge to $900bn still doesn’t cover fortification in the Indo-Pacific or a naval build-up. National security critics point out US rhetoric of liberalism vs. autocracy and economic containment of China without matching military readiness could be like cornering a wounded animal. Even The Economist has joined the list of financial press warning that ‘America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan’. The very fat tail risks should be clear.  

Let me stress, this is not to flag a war. This Daily has only tried to do that once, over Ukraine, when markets refused to accept it might happen, and matter. However, it is to point out that even the Fed is not operating against a geopolitical backdrop of business as usual.

Relatedly, Australia, the UK, and the US all just underlined their deepening economic and political connections via the AUKUS defence pact, further details of which are that Australia will spend A$368bn over the next three decades to build 8 nuclear-powered submarines in Adelaide. As the Sydney Morning Herald puts it: “Almost $400 billion, even over three decades, is not peacetime spending in anybody’s book – a fact that government ministers concede privately.” Indeed, one can start to add the economies of the UK and Australia to the US (and Japan) as they try to jointly match China’s lead in physical production. In short, the shift away from financialisation, if seen, is going to be a joint one.

True, that’s a long journey. The UK tried a fiscal splurge last year and even the Bank of England, let alone markets, said no, triggering any LDI crisis (though note well that the BOE has raised rates a lot since then anyway). The Brits are also more embroiled in culture wars than any preparation for real ones. On which, ‘Match of the Day’ host Gary Lineker is to return after having been forced to temporarily step back over a tweet he made comparing UK immigration policy to the Nazis. A man involved in the Hand of God affair may have stepped into a Hand of Godwin one, but he emerged the winner after his co-presenters and even some footballers said “if he goes, we go.” They may all be multi-millionaires, but that was a labour-militancy zeitgeist the corporate-box prawn-sandwich-eaters in BBC management had not expected to see.          

Putting this all together, it’s not just that calls for Fed cuts look far too premature, or even that the Fed will keep hiking until they break things. It’s that perhaps they are *aiming* to hike until they break some things that need to be broken. By the way, SVB was the prime conduit for Chinese start-ups to get US funding. Not anymore it isn’t.

Logically the only way to resolve the US trilemma of inflation, financial stability, and national security is to further weaponize the US dollar, as long underlined here as a likely emergent option – and one now being presented to West Point by @UrbanKaoboy.

That also involves higher rates to back a strong dollar policy – and capital controls and tariffs, both being floated in various circles.

That requires measures to prevent financial instability while allowing rates to rise higher.

Then there is the issue of how to fund the Pentagon on an even larger scale longer term: which is where AUKUS spreads the burden, with Europe to follow(?)< and maybe even more acronyms to finance it. We have already started down both of these roads.

There is a ‘mismatch of the day’ (and the decade) between that big picture geopolitical-geoeconomic reality and those who shout ‘pivot!’ while only look at very small screens.

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

END

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0724  UP .0009

USA/ YEN 134.06 UP 0.976/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2168  UP   0.0003

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3685 DOWN .0056 (CDN DOLLAR UP 56 PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 23.38 PTS OR 0.72% 

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 448.01 PTS OR 2.27% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.50%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED  DOWN 448.01 PTS OR 2.27%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.38 PTS OR 0.720% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.50% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 610.92 PTS OR 2.19% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1907.15

silver:$21.63

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.31 UP 13  BASIS POINTS from MONDAY’s close.

TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.303% UP 10  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.181% DOWN 8 AND 3/100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.479%// UP 11  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.258 UP 6  points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.416 UP 15 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0728 UP 0.0005 or 5 basis points//

USA/Japan: 134,32 UP  1.236 OR YEN DOWN124 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2159  DOWN .0007 OR 7  BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0076 OR 76 BASIS pts  to 1.3665

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.8720) 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8721

TURKISH LIRA:  18.98  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.181…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 12 IN basis points from MONDAY at  3,632% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.742 UP 8 in basis points

USA 2 yr bond yield:  4.3131 UP 28 basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 103.28 UP 10  BASIS PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 87.24 PTS OR  1.16%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 305,71POINTS OR 2.04%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 148.25 PTS OR 2.11% 

Spain IBEX  UP 211.60 POINTS OR 2.36%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 630.98 PTS OR  2.41%

WTI Oil price 75,90   12: EST

Brent Oil:  81.94 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   UP TO:  75.30/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 30/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.416

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.512 UP 14 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0741  UP 0.0018    OR 18 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2178 UP .0011  or  11 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.524% UP 12 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.03 UP .934////YEN  DOWN 93 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3678 DOWN .0063 (CDN dollar, UP 63 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 71.40

Brent OIL:  77.45

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 13 BASIS pts to 3.649% 

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 11 BASIS PTS to 3.776% 

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 17 PTS AT 4.2044%  

USA dollar index: 103.19  UP 1  BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.98

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  75.32 DOWN 0   AND  32/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 336,26 PTS OR 1.06% 

NASDAQ 100 UP 276,62 PTS OR 2.32%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 23.70 DOWN 2.82 PTS (10.63)%

GLD: $176.85 DOWN 1.01 OR 0.57%

SLV/ $20.00 DOWN 0.11OR 0.55%

end)

1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Relief Rally Ruined By Ratings Agencies & Russia; Bitcoin Bid

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 04:01 PM

No dead banking bodies overnight – and lots of bank CEOs claiming ‘absolutely no outflows at all happened here’ prompted gains in regional banks and pulled markets overall higher. CPI – which printed as expected, but offered no relief from the threat of inflation that The Fed is dealing with – did nothing to stymie the rebound in stocks. It was Ratings Agencies (Moody’s overnight and S&P during the day) and Russia (environmentally unsound attack on a US drone) that wiped some lipstick off this pig today. The Dow fell all the way to unch briefly in the last hour before the panic-bid MoC orders hit…

A late-day panic-bid lifted Nasdaq into the green post-SVB-Fail, but all the others are still in the red…

The S&P failed at its 200DMA today…

“Most Shorted” stocks were squeezed at the cash open, erasing all the losses since Thursday’s close, but they could not maintain the squeeze and the basket slumped all day long…

Source: Bloomberg

On Friday 37.4M Put option contracts traded. This is the largest number of puts traded in history. The second largest put options ever traded was 33.6M contracts on September 23, 2022. Yesterday another 27.3M Put option contracts, this was the 8th largest put option volumes in history. Said another way, 64.30M put option contracts traded in the past two days, for the largest two day period in history, by a mile.

Source: Bloomberg

Today saw those puts being monetized as VIX plunged post-CPI…

Source: Bloomberg

Record volumes do not equal liquidity. S&P 500 futures liquidity is $2.0M. This is the lowest level since March 30th, 2020 (Covid times). At the start of March 2023, you could trade $17M on the screens, and today is $2M, a decline in 88% month-to-date…

Additionally, 10 year bond futures DV01 liquidity is 19K. This is the lowest since March 23rd, 2020 (Covid times). At the start of March 2023, you could trade 114k DV01 on the screens, and today is 19K, a decline in 83% month-to-date…

Regional banks soared this morning on relief that no new bodies were found overnight, but as the day progressed, things worsened, as S&P placed First Republic on Negative Creditwatch (which could potentially make their collateral ineligible). The S&P downgrade came after Moody’s cut its outlook for the US banking system to negative from stable Overnight and placed six US lenders on review for downgrade: First Republic, Western Alliance, Intrust Financial, UMB Financial, Zions, and Comerica – citing concerns including unrealized losses in the lenders’ asset portfolios and risks to profitability. The S&P headline along with broader Russia news impact took the regionals down, erasing all the earlier gains…

PACW was the best performer on the day (along with FRC and SCHW) but they all remain lower in price post-SVB-fail on Friday and well off the day’s highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit Suisse credit risk hit another new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

As the S&P rallied from the open, 0DTE traders were fading those gains and unwound that negative delta flow as stocks faded after the Russia/Drone headlines. Notably, as stocks fell, aggregate options trader flow was very positive delta…

HIRO Indicator | SpotGamma™

Bonds were sold across the board today after yesterday’s panic bid with the short-end dramatically underperforming. Today’s comeback (in yields) still leaves the whole curve lower post-SVB on Friday morning (with 30Y lagging)…

Source: Bloomberg

After collapsing over 60bps yesterday, 2Y Yields exploded over 40bps higher today the third biggest one-day spike ever (behind the post-Lehman chaos in Sept 2008 and Oct 1982 as Volcker sparked volatility on shifting policy). In fact from Friday’s close, 2Y Yields were down almost 80bps at their trough overnight before European selling started and that pulled the 2Y Yield back above 4.00%, up almost 60bps from its lows to the highs of the day, before a rally in bonds (as stocks sank late) pulled 2Y back down to 4.20%…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended back at yesterday’s lows after a rebound overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended its recent gains, soaring above $26,000 intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices plunged – as perhaps once again the only clear indication of a recession – with WTI back at 3-month lows with a $71 handle…

Gold was flat today, holding on to its gains above $1900…

Finally, Fed rate-trajectory expectations continue to swing violently. September expectations have swung from +110bps on Thursday to -65bps yesterday to +10bps shortly after the CPI print to end at -16bps (i.e. rates are expected to be 16bps lower than now in September). The market is laying 75% odds that The Fed will hike by 25bps in March (next week) – that is up from around 40% yesterday (favoring a pause) and down from 85% odds this morning after CPI…

Source: Bloomberg

The curve has been wild to say the least over the last few days. The terminal rate has plunged and pulled forward; the curve has inverted dramatically – pricing in rate-cuts before year-end; and shifted slightly hawkishly today after CPI…

So, what will The Fed do?

For now, the market seems more biased towards a 25bps hike – which makes sense since, if The Fed doesn’t hike next week, isn’t that an implicit admission that the ‘bailout’ mechanism that Biden and Yellen have said will work to stabilize the financial system… won’t work.

end

i b Morning trading:  CPI:

Shelter Inflation Hits Record High As Americans’ Real Wages Drop For 32nd Straight Month

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 08:37 AM

After January’s disappointing ‘stall’ in the linear demise of inflation, consensus expectations were for a re-acceleration of the YoY decline in headline CPI (from 6.4% to 6.0%), and the actual print came in right on expectations (+0.4% MoM, +6.0% YoY). That is the lowest YoY CPI since Sept 2021

Source: Bloomberg

Services dominated the headline CPI YoY shift with Shelter continuing to be a main driver…

On a MoM basis, Services and Shelter also dominated, with Used Car prices lower (which lags the real shift as Manheim prices have risen for two straight months)…

The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 70 percent of the increase, with the  indexes for food, recreation, and household furnishings and operations also contributing. The food index increased 0.4 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.3 percent. The energy index decreased 0.6 percent over the month as the natural gas and fuel oil indexes both declined.

Core CPI was expected to slow only marginally in February from 5.6% YoY to 5.5% YoY and it did – dropping to its lowest YoY print since Dec 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in February, after rising 0.4 percent in January.

  • The shelter index continued to increase, rising 0.8 percent over the month. The index for rent rose 0.8 percent in February, while the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.7 percent over the month. The index for lodging away from home increased 2.3 percent in February. The shelter index was the dominant factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.
  • Among the other indexes that rose in February was the index for recreation, which increased 0.9 percent, and the index for household furnishings and operations which increased 0.8 percent.
  • The airline fares index rose 6.4 percent, ending a string of four consecutive declines. The index for motor vehicle insurance, the index for apparel, the index for personal care, and the index for new vehicles also increased in February. In contrast, the index for used cars and  trucks fell 2.8 percent in February,  continuing a recent downward trend.
  • The medical care index fell 0.5 percent in February, after falling 0.4 percent in January.
  • The index for physicians’ services continued to decline, falling 0.5 percent after declining 0.1 percent in January. The hospital services index and the prescription drugs index were unchanged in February.

The costs of putting a roof over your head remains a critical factor for The Fed to deal with:

  • Feb Rent Inflation 8.76% YoY, up from 8.56% In Jan; highest on record
  • Feb Shelter Inflation 8.10% YoY, up from 7.88% in Jan; highest on record

There is some good news… egg prices appear to have peaked…

Increases in Transportation costs outweighed a drop in Medical Care costs…

Crucially, the core inflation measure Powell watches – core services excluding rents – went in the wrong direction. Up 0.5% versus 0.36% in January. The year-on-year rate came down slightly, to 6.15% from 6.22%.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this is the 23rd straight month where Americans cost of living has outpaced their wage growth with real average hourly earnings down 1.3% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Obviously the world is a different place after the SVB collapse and bailout, but The Fed still has a job to do.

Before the print, the market had priced in 17bps of hikes for March’s meeting next week

II) USA DATA

iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS//

Layoffs at tech companies continue with another Meta (Facebook) job cuts

(zerohedge)

Meta Cuts Another 10,000 Jobs As Tech Layoffs Accelerate

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 01:45 PM

Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg wrote in a blog post on Tuesday that the company will “reduce our team size by around 10,000 people and to close around 5,000 additional open roles that we haven’t yet hired.”

“Here’s the timeline you should expect: over the next couple of months, org leaders will announce restructuring plans focused on flattening our orgs, canceling lower priority projects, and reducing our hiring rates,” Zuckerberg said. 

“We will make our organization flatter by removing multiple layers of management,” he said in the post, referring to his ‘Year of Efficiency’ to reduce expenses. 

Meta employees had been bracing for more layoffs in recent weeks. Last Tuesday, a Bloomberg report outlined the upcoming job cuts. The new round of layoffs adds to a previous round of cuts announced in November of about 13% of Meta’s overall staff. 

… and here comes the reversal in headcount. 

Meta’s downsizing comes as its social media platforms, including Instagram and WhatsApp, have been hit with a slowdown in advertising revenue, leading to the first-ever annual sales decline in 2022. Zuckerberg has reduced investment in the metaverse to weather the economic storm. 

After the news, Meta shares rose more than 6% in early morning trading, reaching a five-week high.

Meta’s not the only tech company laying off. According to the layoff tracking website Layoffs.fyi, 483 tech companies have fired 128,000 workers so far this year.

Zuckerberg ended by saying: 

At this point, I think we should prepare ourselves for the possibility that this new economic reality will continue for many years. Higher interest rates lead to the economy running leaner, more geopolitical instability leads to more volatility, and increased regulation leads to slower growth and increased costs of innovation. Given this outlook, we’ll need to operate more efficiently than our previous headcount reduction to ensure success.

Here’s the full memo that was shared with employees:

Meta is building the future of human connection, and today I want to share some updates on our Year of Efficiency that will help us do that. The goals of this work are: (1) to make us a better technology company and (2) to improve our financial performance in a difficult environment so we can execute our long term vision.

Our efficiency work has several parallel workstreams to improve organizational efficiency, dramatically increase developer productivity and tooling, optimize distributed work, garbage collect unnecessary processes, and more. I’ve tried to be open about all the work that’s underway, and while I know many of you are energized by this, I also recognize that the idea of upcoming org changes creates uncertainty and stress. My hope is to make these org changes as soon as possible in the year so we can get past this period of uncertainty and focus on the critical work ahead.

Here’s the timeline you should expect: over the next couple of months, org leaders will announce restructuring plans focused on flattening our orgs, canceling lower priority projects, and reducing our hiring rates. With less hiring, I’ve made the difficult decision to further reduce the size of our recruiting team. We will let recruiting team members know tomorrow whether they’re impacted. We expect to announce restructurings and layoffs in our tech groups in late April, and then our business groups in late May. In a small number of cases, it may take through the end of the year to complete these changes. Our timelines for international teams will also look different, and local leaders will follow up with more details. Overall, we expect to reduce our team size by around 10,000 people and to close around 5,000 additional open roles that we haven’t yet hired.

This will be tough and there’s no way around that. It will mean saying goodbye to talented and passionate colleagues who have been part of our success. They’ve dedicated themselves to our mission and I’m personally grateful for all their efforts. We will support people in the same ways we have before and treat everyone with the gratitude they deserve.

After restructuring, we plan to lift hiring and transfer freezes in each group. Other relevant efficiency timelines include targeting this summer to complete our analysis from our hybrid work year of learning so we can further refine our distributed work model. We also aim to have a steady stream of developer productivity enhancements and process improvements throughout the year.

As I’ve talked about efficiency this year, I’ve said that part of our work will involve removing jobs — and that will be in service of both building a leaner, more technical company and improving our business performance to enable our long term vision. I understand that this update may still feel surprising, so I’d like to lay out some broader context on our vision, our culture, and our operating philosophy.

Building a Better Technology Company

Every day Meta builds new ways for people to feel closer. This is a fundamental human need that may be more important in today’s complex world than ever. One day we hope to enable every person to feel as strong a sense of connection as you feel when you’re physically with someone you love.

We do leading work across a wide range of advanced technologies and then distill that into inspiring products that improve people’s lives. We do this with AI to help you creatively express yourself and discover new content, with the metaverse to deliver a realistic sense of presence, with new media formats to create richer experiences, with encryption to let you communicate privately in more and more ways, and with business tools to help reach customers, create opportunity and grow the economy.

Simply put: if you want to invent the future or apply the best ideas to reach people at the greatest scale, then Meta is the best place to do that.

With that in mind, here are some of the cultural principles that are guiding our efficiency work towards making Meta an even stronger technology company:

Flatter is faster

It’s well-understood that every layer of a hierarchy adds latency and risk aversion in information flow and decision-making. Every manager typically reviews work and polishes off some rough edges before sending it further up the chain.

In our Year of Efficiency, we will make our organization flatter by removing multiple layers of management. As part of this, we will ask many managers to become individual contributors. We’ll also have individual contributors report into almost every level — not just the bottom — so information flow between people doing the work and management will be faster.

Of course, there are tradeoffs. We still believe managing each person is very important, so in general we don’t want managers to have more than 10 direct reports. Today many of our managers have only a few direct reports. That made sense to optimize for ramping up new managers and maintaining buffer capacity when we were growing our organization faster, but now that we don’t expect to grow headcount as quickly, it makes more sense to fully utilize each manager’s capacity and defragment layers as much as possible.

Leaner is better

Since we reduced our workforce last year, one surprising result is that many things have gone faster. In retrospect, I underestimated the indirect costs of lower priority projects.

It’s tempting to think that a project is net positive as long as it generates more value than its direct costs. But that project needs a leader, so maybe we take someone great from another team or maybe we take a great engineer and put them into a management role, which both diffuses talent and creates more management layers. That project team needs space, and maybe it tips its overall product group into splitting across multiple floors or multiple time zones, which now makes communication harder for everyone. That project team needs laptops and HR benefits and may want to recruit more engineers, so that leads us to hire even more IT, HR and recruiting people, and now those orgs grow and become less efficient and responsive to higher priority teams as well. Maybe the project has overlap with work on another team or maybe it built a bespoke technical system when it should have used general infrastructure we’d already built, so now it will take leadership focus to deduplicate that effort. Indirect costs compound and it’s easy to underestimate them. 

A leaner org will execute its highest priorities faster. People will be more productive, and their work will be more fun and fulfilling. We will become an even greater magnet for the most talented people. That’s why in our Year of Efficiency, we are focused on canceling projects that are duplicative or lower priority and making every organization as lean as possible.

Keep technology the main thing

We are a technology company, and our ultimate output is what we build for people. Everything else we do is in service of that.

As we’ve grown, we’ve hired many leading experts in areas outside engineering. This helps us build better products, but with many new teams it takes intentional focus to make sure our company remains primarily technologists.

As we add different groups, our product teams naturally hire more roles to handle all the interactions with those other groups. If we only rebalanced the product teams towards engineering, those leaner product teams would be overwhelmed by the volume of interactions from other groups.

As part of the Year of Efficiency, we’re focusing on returning to a more optimal ratio of engineers to other roles. It’s important for all groups to get leaner and more efficient to enable our technology groups to get as lean and efficient as possible. We will make sure we continue to meet all our critical and legal obligations as we find ways to operate more efficiently.

Invest in tools to get more efficient

We’re focused on the long term. That means investing in tools that will make us most effective over many years, not just this year — whether that’s building AI tools to help engineers write better code faster, enabling us to automate workloads over time, or identifying obsolete processes that we can phase out.

Our developer tooling work is underway and seeing good results. For example, Buck2 is our new open source build system that compiles builds around 50% faster so engineers can spend more time iterating and less time waiting. Our analysis found that engineers whose builds were sped up by Buck2 often produced meaningfully more code.

In-person time helps build relationships and get more done

We’re committed to distributed work. That means we’re also committed to continuously refining our model to make this work as effectively as possible.

Our early analysis of performance data suggests that engineers who either joined Meta in-person and then transferred to remote or remained in-person performed better on average than people who joined remotely. This analysis also shows that engineers earlier in their career perform better on average when they work in-person with teammates at least three days a week. This requires further study, but our hypothesis is that it is still easier to build trust in person and that those relationships help us work more effectively.

As part of our Year of Efficiency, we’re focusing on understanding this further and finding ways to make sure people build the necessary connections to work effectively. In the meantime, I encourage all of you to find more opportunities to work with your colleagues in person.

Improving Business Performance in a Difficult Economic Environment

In addition to helping us build a better technology company, our other goal for the Year of Efficiency is to improve our business performance given the new economic reality. Profitability enables innovation. Operating our business more efficiently will give us the resources and confidence to achieve our long term vision by delivering sustainable financial results that make us an attractive company to work at and invest in.

When I wrote my first letter to investors during our IPO, I described a basic principle that is still true today: “we don’t build services to make money; we make money to build better services.”

For most of our history, we saw rapid revenue growth year after year and had the resources to invest in many new products. But last year was a humbling wake-up call. The world economy changed, competitive pressures grew, and our growth slowed considerably. We scaled back budgets, shrunk our real estate footprint, and made the difficult decision to lay off 13% of our workforce.

At this point, I think we should prepare ourselves for the possibility that this new economic reality will continue for many years. Higher interest rates lead to the economy running leaner, more geopolitical instability leads to more volatility, and increased regulation leads to slower growth and increased costs of innovation. Given this outlook, we’ll need to operate more efficiently than our previous headcount reduction to ensure success.

In the face of this new reality, most companies will scale back their long term vision and investments. But we have the opportunity to be bolder and make decisions that other companies can’t. So we put together a financial plan that enables us to invest heavily in the future while also delivering sustainable results as long as we run every team more efficiently. The changes we’re making will enable us to meet this financial plan.

I believe that we are working on some of the most transformative technology our industry has ever seen. Our single largest investment is in advancing AI and building it into every one of our products. We have the infrastructure to do this at unprecedented scale and I think the experiences it enables will be amazing. Our leading work building the metaverse and shaping the next generation of computing platforms also remains central to defining the future of social connection. And our apps are growing and continuing to connect almost half of the world’s population in new ways. This work is incredibly important and the stakes are high. The financial plan we’ve set out puts us in position to deliver it.

Looking Ahead

I recognize that sharing plans for restructuring and layoffs months in advance creates a challenging period. But last fall, we heard feedback that you wanted more transparency sooner into any restructuring plans, so that’s what I’m trying to provide here. I hope that giving you a timeline and principles for what to expect will help us get through the next couple of months and then move forward as we implement these changes that I believe will have a very positive impact on how we work.

In terms of how we should operate during this period, I encourage each of you to focus on what you can control. That is, do great work and support your teammates. Our community is extremely resilient. Change is never easy, but I know we’ll get through this and come out an even stronger company that can build better products faster and enable you to do the best work of your careers.

 3 UPDATES ON THE SILICON BANK FAILURE//

Two extremely important papers on the disastrous USA banking systems/failures which lead to the Silicon Valley/Signature Bank failures

First Michael Hudson:

Hudson: Why The Banking System Is Breaking Up

MONDAY, MAR 13, 2023 – 05:20 PM

Authored by Michael Hudson,

The collapses of Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank are like icebergs calving off from the Antarctic glacier. The financial analogy to the global warming causing this collapse of supporting shelving is the rising temperature of interest rates, which spiked last Thursday and Friday to close at 4.60 percent for the U.S. Treasury’s two-year bonds. Bank depositors meanwhile were still being paid only 0.2 percent on their deposits. That has led to a steady withdrawal of funds from banks – and a corresponding decline in commercial bank balances with the Federal Reserve.

Most media reports reflect a prayer that the bank runs will be localized, as if there is no context or environmental cause. There is general embarrassment to explain how the breakup of banks that is now gaining momentum is the result of the way that the Obama Administration bailed out the banks in 2008 with fifteen years of Quantitative Easing to re-inflate prices for packaged bank mortgages – and with them, housing prices, along with stock and bond prices.

The Fed’s $9 trillion of QE (not counted as part of the budget deficit) fueled an asset-price inflation that made trillions of dollars for holders of financial assets – the One Percent with a generous spillover effect for the remaining members of the top Ten Percent. The cost of home ownership soared by capitalizing mortgages at falling interest rates into more highly debt-leveraged property. The U.S. economy experienced the largest bond-market boom in history as interest rates fell below 1 percent. The economy polarized between the creditor positive-net-worth class and the rest of the economy – whose analogy to environmental pollution and global warming was debt pollution.

But in serving the banks and the financial ownership class, the Fed painted itself into a corner: What would happen if and when interest rates finally rose?

In Killing the Host I wrote about what seemed obvious enough. Rising interest rates cause the prices of bonds already issued to fall – along with real estate and stock prices. That is what has been happening under the Fed’s fight against “inflation,” its euphemism for opposing rising employment and wage levels. Prices are plunging for bonds, and also for the capitalized value of packaged mortgages and other securities in which banks hold their assets on their balance sheet to back their deposits.

The result threatens to push down bank assets below their deposit liabilities, wiping out their net worth – their stockholder equity. This is what was threatened in 2008. It is what occurred in a more extreme way with S&Ls and savings banks in the 1980s, leading to their demise. These “financial intermediaries” did not create credit as commercial banks can do, but lent deposits out in the form of long-term mortgages at fixed interest rates, often for 30 years. But in the wake of the Volcker spike in interest rates that inaugurated the 1980s, the overall level of interest rates remained higher than the interest rates that S&Ls and savings banks were receiving. Depositors began to withdraw their money to get higher returns elsewhere, because S&Ls and savings banks could not pay higher their depositors higher rates out of the revenue coming in from their mortgages fixed at lower rates. So even without fraud Keating-style, the mismatch between short-term liabilities and long-term interest rates ended their business plan.

The S&Ls owed money to depositors short-term, but were locked into long-term assets at falling prices. Of course, S&L mortgages were much longer-term than was the case for commercial banks. But the effect of rising interest rates has the same effect on bank assets that it has on all financial assets. Just as the QE interest-rate decline aimed to bolster the banks, its reversal today must have the opposite effect. And if banks have made bad derivatives trades, they’re in trouble.

Any bank has a problem of keeping its asset valuations higher than its deposit liabilities. When the Fed raises interest rates sharply enough to crash bond prices, the banking system’s asset structure weakens. That is the corner into which the Fed has painted the economy by QE.

The Fed recognizes this inherent problem, of course. That is why it avoided raising interest rates for so long – until the wage-earning bottom 99 Percent began to benefit by the recovery in employment. When wages began to recover, the Fed could not resist fighting the usual class war against labor. But in doing so, its policy has turned into a war against the banking system as well.

Silvergate was the first to go, but it was a special case. It had sought to ride the cryptocurrency wave by serving as a bank for various currencies. After SBF’s vast fraud was exposed, there was a run on cryptocurrencies. Investor/gamblers jumped ship. The crypto-managers had to pay by drawing down the deposits they had at Silvergate. It went under.

Silvergate’s failure destroyed the great illusion of cryptocurrency deposits. The popular impression was that crypto provided an alternative to commercial banks and “fiat currency.” But what could crypto funds invest in to back their coin purchases, if not bank deposits and government securities or private stocks and bonds? What is crypto, ultimately, if not simply a mutual fund with secrecy of ownership to protect money launderers?

Silicon Valley Bank also is in many ways a special case, given its specialized lending to IT startups. New Republic bank also has suffered a run, and it too is specialized, lending to wealthy depositors in the San Francisco and northern California area. But a bank run was being talked up last week, and financial markets were shaken up as bond prices declined when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that he actually planned to raise interest rates even more than he earlier had targeted, in view of the rising employment making wage earners more uppity in their demands to at least keep up with the inflation caused by the U.S. sanctions against Russian energy and food and the actions by monopolies to raise prices “to anticipate the coming inflation.” Wages have not kept pace with the resulting high inflation rates.

It looks like Silicon Valley Bank will have to liquidate its securities at a loss. Probably it will be taken over by a larger bank, but the entire financial system is being squeezed. Reuters reported on Friday that bank reserves at the Fed were plunging. That hardly is surprising, as banks are paying about 0.2 percent on deposits, while depositors can withdraw their money to buy two-year U.S. Treasury notes yielding 3.8 or almost 4 percent. No wonder well-to-do investors are running from the banks.

The obvious question is why the Fed doesn’t simply bail out banks in SVB’s position. The answer is that the lower prices for financial assets looks like the New Normal. For banks with negative equity, how can solvency be resolved without sharply reducing interest rates to restore the 15-year Zero Interest-Rate Policy (ZIRP)?

There is an even larger elephant in the room: derivatives. Volatility increased last Thursday and Friday. The turmoil has reached vast magnitudes beyond what characterized the 2008 crash of AIG and other speculators. Today, JP Morgan Chase and other New York banks have tens of trillions of dollar valuations of derivatives – casino bets on which way interest rates, bond prices, stock prices and other measures will change.

For every winning guess, there is a loser. When trillions of dollars are bet on, some bank trader is bound to wind up with a loss that can easily wipe out the bank’s entire net equity.

There is now a flight to “cash,” to a safe haven – something even better than cash: U.S. Treasury securities. Despite the talk of Republicans refusing to raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury can always print the money to pay its bondholders. It looks like the Treasury will become the new depository of choice for those who have the financial resources. Bank deposits will fall. And with them, bank holdings of reserves at the Fed.

So far, the stock market has resisted following the plunge in bond prices. My guess is that we will now see the Great Unwinding of the great Fictitious Capital boom of 2008-2015. So the chickens are coming hope to roost – with the “chicken” being, perhaps, the elephantine overhang of derivatives fueled by the post-2008 loosening of financial regulation and risk analysis.

end

Second:  Brandon Smith:

(Brandon Smith//Alt-Market.us)

Silicon Valley Bank Crisis: The Liquidity Crunch We Predicted Has Now Begun

MONDAY, MAR 13, 2023 – 11:20 PM

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

There has been an avalanche of information and numerous theories circulating the past few days about the fate of a bank in California know as SVB (Silicon Valley Bank). SVB was the 16th largest bank in the US until it abruptly failed and went into insolvency on March 10th. The impetus for the collapse of the bank is tied to a $2 billion liquidity loss on bond sales which caused the institution’s stock value to plummet over 60%, triggering a bank run by customers fearful of losing some or most of their deposits.

There are many fine articles out there covering the details of the SVB situation, but what I want to talk about more is the root of it all. The bank’s shortfalls are not really the cause of the crisis, they are a symptom of a wider liquidity drought that I predicted here at Alt-Market months ago, including the timing of the event.

First, though, let’s discuss the core issue, which is fiscal tightening and the Federal Reserve. In my article ‘The Fed’s Catch-22 Taper Is A Weapon, Not A Policy Error’, published in December of 2021, I noted that the Fed was on a clear path towards tightening into economic weakness, very similar to what they did in the early 1980s during the stagflation era and also somewhat similar to what they did at the onset of the Great Depression. Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke even openly admitted that the Fed caused the depression to spiral out of control due to their tightening policies.

In that same article I discussed the “yield curve” being a red flag for an incoming crisis:

…The central bank is the largest investor in US bonds. If the Fed raises interest rates into weakness and tapers asset purchases, then we may see a repeat of 2018 when the yield curve started to flatten. This means that short term treasury bonds will end up with the same yield as long term bonds and investment in long term bonds will fall.”

As of this past week the yield curve has been inverted, signaling a potential liquidity crunch. Both Jerome Powell (Fed Chairman) and Janet Yellen (Treasury Secretary) have indicated that tightening policies will continue and that reducing inflation to 2% is the goal. Given the many trillions of dollars the Fed has pumped into the financial system in the past decade as well as the overall weakness of general economy, it would not take much QT to crush credit markets and by extension stock markets.

As I also noted in 2021:

We are now at that stage again where price inflation tied to money printing is clashing with the stock market’s complete reliance on stimulus to stay afloat. There are some that continue to claim the Fed will never sacrifice the markets by tapering. I say the Fed does not actually care, it is only waiting for the right time to pull the plug on the US economy.”

But is that time now?  I expanded on this analysis in my article ‘Major Economic Contraction Coming In 2023 – Followed By Even More Inflation’, published in December of 2022. I noted that:

This is the situation we are currently in today as 2022 comes to a close. The Fed is in the midst of a rather aggressive rate hike program in a “fight” against the stagflationary crisis that they created through years of fiat stimulus measures. The problem is that the higher interest rates are not bringing prices down, nor are they really slowing stock market speculation. Easy money has been too entrenched for far too long, which means a hard landing is the most likely scenario.”

I continued:

In the early 2000s the Fed had been engaged in artificially low interest rates which inflated the housing and derivatives bubble. In 2004, they shifted into a tightening process. Rates in 2004 were at 1% and by 2006 they rose to over 5%. This is when cracks began to appear in the credit structure, with 4.5% – 5.5% being the magic cutoff point before debt became too expensive for the system to continue the charade. By 2007/2008 the nation witnessed an exponential implosion of credit…”

Finally, I made my prediction for March/April of 2023:

Since nothing was actually fixed by the Fed back then, I will continue to use the 5% funds rate as a marker for when we will see another major contraction…The 1% excise tax added on top of a 5% Fed funds rate creates a 6% millstone on any money borrowed to finance future buybacks. This cost is going to be far too high and buybacks will falter. Meaning, stock markets will also stop, and drop. It will likely take two or three months before the tax and the rate hikes create a visible effect on markets. This would put our time frame for contraction around March or April of 2023.”

We are now in the middle of March and it appears that the first signs of liquidity crisis are bubbling to the surface with the insolvency of SVB and the shuttering of another institution in New York called Signature Bank.

Everything is tied back to liquidity. With higher rates, banks are hard-pressed to borrow from the Fed and companies are hard-pressed to borrow from banks. This means companies that were hiding financial weakness and exposure to bad investments using easy credit no longer have that option. They won’t be able to artificially support operations that are not profitable, they will have to abandon stock buybacks that make their shares appear valuable and they will have to initiate mass layoffs in order to protect their bottom line.

SVB is not quite Bear Stearns, but it is likely a canary in the coal mine, telling us what is about to happen on a wider scale. Many of their depositors were founded in venture capital fueled by easy credit, not to mention all the ESG related companies dependent on woke loans. That money is gone – It’s dead. Those businesses are quietly but quickly crumbling which also conjured a black hole for deposits within SVB. It’s a terribly destructive cycle. Surely, there are numerous other banks in the US in the same exact position.

I believe this is just the beginning of a liquidity and credit crisis that will combine with overt inflation to produce perhaps the biggest economic crash America has ever seen.  SVB’s failure may not be THE initiator, only one among many. I suspect that in this scenario larger US banks may avoid the kind of credit crash that we saw with Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers in 2008. But, contagion could still strike multiple mid-sized banks and the effects could be similar in a short period of time.

With all the news flooding the wire on SVB it’s easy to forget that all of this boils down to a single vital issue: The Fed’s stimulus measures created an economy utterly addicted to easy and cheap liquidity. Now, they have taken that easy money away. In light of the SVB crash, will the central bank reverse course on tightening, or will they continue forward and risk contagion?

For now, Janet Yellen and the Fed have implemented a limited backstop and a guarantee on deposits at SVB and Signature. This will theoretically prevent a “haircut” on depositor accounts and lure retail investors with dreams of endless stimulus.  It is a half-measure, though – Central bankers have to at least look like they are trying. 

SVB’s assets sit at around $200 billion and Signature’s assets are around $100 billion, but what about interbank exposure and what about the wider implications?  How many banks are barely scraping by to meet their liquidity obligations, and how many companies have evaporating deposits?  The backstop will do nothing to prevent a major contagion.

There are many financial tricks that might slow the pace of a credit crash, but not by much.  And, here’s the kicker – Unlike in 2008, the Fed has created a situation in which there is no escape. If they do pivot and return to systemic bailouts, stagflation will skyrocket even more. If they don’t use QE, then banks crash, companies crash and even bonds become untenable, which puts the world reserve status of the Dollar under threat. What does that lead to? More stagflation. In either case, rapidly rising prices on most necessities will be the consequence.

How long will this process take? It all depends on how the Fed responds. They might be able to drag the crash out for a few months with various stop-gaps. If they go back to stimulus then the banks will be saved along with equities (for a while) but rising inflation will suffocate consumers in the span of a year and companies will still falter. My gut tells me that they will rely on contained interventions but will not reverse rate hikes as many analysts seem to expect.

The Fed will goose markets up at times using jawboning and false hopes of a return to aggressive QE or near-zero rates, but ultimately the trend of credit markets and stocks will be steady and downward.  Like a brush fire in a wind storm, once the flames are sparked there is no way to put things back the way they were.  If their goal was in fact a liquidity crunch, well, mission accomplished.  They have created that exact scenario.  Read my articles linked above to understand why they might do this deliberately.

In the meantime, it appears that my predictions on timing are correct so far. We will have to wait and see what happens in the coming weeks. I will keep readers apprised of events as new details unfold.  The situation is rapidly evolving.

end

And this will continue as the risk is too great keeping the funds in smaller banks

(zerohedge)

Too-Big-To-Fail Banks Flooded With Deposits As Bank Run Drains Small Bank Of Cash

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 10:20 AM

Over the weekend, amid populist howls of outrage that a bailout of SVB would promote moral hazard (in the end depositors did get bailed out with a full recovery, but other unsecured creditors oddly enough would get nothing, while the common stock is a doughnut), we said that while technically true, the events that toppled SVB and now SBNY as well, are really a subsidy for the big banks.

Today, one day after many small banks nearly failed amid a surge in deposit outflows, we read that “after the back-to-back collapse of three smaller banks, their biggest US counterparts are seeing a rush of depositors fearful the crisis will spread.”

According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan – or as we now call it JPMega – the largest US bank and about to become much, much bigger, alone received billions of dollars in recent days, and Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo & Co. are also seeing higher-than-usual volume.

“The top six banks in the US are and have been too big to fail, the financial crisis over 10 years ago demonstrated that,” Michael Imerman, an assistant professor at the University of California Irvine’s business school, told Bloomberg. “So it’s safer to go with a name with higher degree of certainty.”

Other banks are seeing increased deposit inflows as well. Citizens Financial Group Inc. announced Monday that it “has seen higher than normal interest from prospective new customers over the past few days,” and that it would temporarily extend branch hours to accommodate.

Confirming BBG reporting, the FT writes that “Large US banks are inundated with new depositors as smaller lenders face turmoil“, which of course means that small bank deposits are getting drained.

According to the FT report, “large US banks are being inundated with requests from customers trying to transfer funds from smaller lenders, as the failure of Silicon Valley Bank results in what executives say is the biggest movement of deposits in more than a decade.”

“JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and other large financial institutions are trying to accommodate customers wanting to move deposits quickly, taking extra steps to speed up the normal sign-up or “onboarding” process, according to several people familiar with the matter.”

As we speculated over the weekend, the bailout plan revealed by the Fed, TSY and FDIC was insufficient to stabilize depositor confidence, and even though it staved off the failure of a third bank following the implosion of SVB and Signature Bank, depositors were still attempting to move balances into larger banks such as JPMorgan, Citi and Bank of America, as well as money market funds. That is especially the case when balances exceed the $250,000 threshold that is guaranteed by federal insurance.

Deposit transfers from SVB and other regional lenders to large banks picked up steam last week and continued on Monday, the people said. “The calls have been coming in today like airplanes stacked on a snowy day at O’Hare airport,” said one senior banker, referring to Chicago’s busy aviation hub.

JPMorgan, which we explicitly said will be the biggest beneficiary of small bank bank run, has shortened the waiting time for opening an account and is expediting the speed at which new corporate customers can access funds to ensure they can pay staff at the end of this week, the FT reports adding that several banks have reassigned employees to jobs connected to account openings.

Citi’s private bank, which caters to wealthy individuals, is trying to open accounts within a day of application compared with the typical timeline of one to two weeks, some of the people said. The lender has also started to open accounts and initiate money transfer procedures while the new client is still undergoing compliance checks.

Executives say they are walking a fine line because they do not want to be accused of exploiting the situation. JPMorgan has told bankers they should not make active attempts to poach clients from smaller rivals, according to people briefed on the discussions.

“Goliath is winning,” Wells Fargo banking analyst Mike Mayo said in a research note on Monday as he singled out JPMorgan as a beneficiary “in these less certain times”.

None of that should be a surprise, and the real story behind the SIVB collapse emerged late last week when we reported that JPMorgan was seeking to convince some SVB customers to move their funds, in the process making the devastating and terminal SIVB bank run worse. Here is what we said:

Let us get this straight: the largest US commercial bank was actively soliciting the clients of one of its biggest competitors, and the 16th largest US bank, knowing full well deposit flight would almost certainly lead to the collapse of a bank which courtesy of fractional reserve banking, had only modest cash to satisfy deposit demands: certainly not enough to meet $42 billion in deposit outflows.

Of course, Jamie, who has suddenly emerged as a key figure in the Jeff Epstein scandal alongside Jes Staley, knows this, and would be delighted with an outcome that kills two birds with one stone: take his name off the front pages and also make JPMorgan even bigger. Actually three birds: remember it was JPM that started that “Not QE” Fed liquidity injection in Sept 2019 when the bank “suddenly” found itself reserve constrained. We doubt that JPM would mind greatly if Powell ended his rate hikes and eased/launched QE as a result of a bank crisis, a bank crisis that Jamie helped precipitate. 

And while we wait to see if Dimon’s participation in the Epstein scandal will now fade from media coverage, and whether Powell will launch QE, we know one thing for sure: JPM was a clear and immediate benefactor of SIVB’s collapse because in a day when everything crashed, JPM stock was one of the handful that were up.

And so, just like the Lehman collapse made the remaining bailed out banks stronger, so the failure of a handful of regional banks not only allowed mega banks such as JPM and BofA – which have tens of billions in net unrealized losses on their HTM books to take advantage of the Fed’s new bailout facility, the BTFP, but to also beef up their depositor bases while assuring that their profits rise too .

Almost as if it was all planned from the start…

3c East Palestine train disaster//updates

3D More fallout from the Silicon Valley bank bailout:

USA COVID//

END

SWAMP STORIES

This does not look good for the FBI:  they altered evidence

(zerohedge)

Jan. 6 Attorney Alleges FBI Criminally Altered Evidence, Requests Special Master Review Of Leaked Messages

MONDAY, MAR 13, 2023 – 10:00 PM

Authored by Gary Bai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Rogers Roots, an attorney representing Dominic Pezzola, a Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach defendant, alleged on Sunday that the FBI had committed crimes by altering evidence and requested that the court appoint a special master to review the evidence.

Roots’s move came days after the testimony of FBI Special Agent Nicole Miller, who was involved in the agency’s investigations of the Jan. 6 defendants. When cross-examining Miller, Nick Smith, an attorney representing Proud Boys member Ethan Nordean (listed as co-defendant on Pezzola’s case), revealed classified FBI emails that were hidden in a tab in an Excel spreadsheet, which included a directive to Miller to “destroy” 338 pieces of evidence and “edit out” an FBI agent from an informant report.

Destroying evidence is a federal crime. It actually falls under a federal crime under more than one statute. The same goes with altering documents, altering records, that is a federal crime,” the John Pierce Law attorney told The Epoch Times in an interview on Sunday.

In a filing on Sunday, Roots requested that Timothy J. Kelly, a Trump appointee presiding over the case, either dismiss the case in its entirety or appoint a special master to independently review the FBI messages that were revealed in court.

“The unceremonious and uninhibited nature of Miller’s discussion of committing these serious crimes suggests an FBI culture of corruption and lawlessness that must be immediately stopped, and fully investigated,” Roots said in the filing.

“Accordingly, this case must be dismissed en toto and with prejudice,” Roots’s filing continues. “Even if the Court were to overlook this massive trail of FBI corruption and the trial were to proceed, defendants have a right to cross-examine Agent Miller regarding all of these crimes, her missing emails, her discussions of violating defendants’ 6th amendment rights, her discussions of evidence tampering, and her discussions of altering documents involving [confidential human sources] in this case.”

All January 6 prosecutions should be paused for evidentiary hearings and investigations by a Special Master and Special Counsel,” the filing reads.

The Leaked Messages

A key question about these leaked messages is whether they fall under the scope of evidence in the case.

Roots said in the filing that the messages show a violation of due process, reiterating his argument in an earlier filing that the FBI’s monitoring of communications between a co-defendant, Zachary Rehl, and his attorney violated the Sixth Amendment, which prohibits invasion of the right to counsel (Matter of Fusco v. Moses).

Miller’s hidden messages reveal casual discussions among the FBI regarding the monitoring of codefendant Rehl’s trial strategy, Rehl’s defenses and ‘interesting’ points, and ways the government can get around Rehl’s defenses,” Roots said in the Sunday filing.

In the filing, Roots requested the court dismiss Pezzola’s case with prejudice, appoint a special counsel, appoint a special master, schedule extensive evidentiary hearings, and release Pezzola from custody.

The DOJ, on the other hand, said that because Rehl and his attorney were communicating over a monitored prison system, they waived the right to attorney-client privileges.

“The government has not obtained any privileged communications between defendant Rehl and Moseley,” the government wrote in response to Roots’s contentions in a filing on Sunday. “As the government explained in a separate filing … Rehl and Moseley made a fully informed choice to communicate with one another over a monitored jail email system. In doing so, they waived any privilege.”

Read more here…

end

What an absolute joke! Not a surprise at all

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us

EXCLUSIVE! FBI Facial Recognition Confirms Majority of Initial Capitol Breachers Were Federal Agents

A domestic false flag ?

https://madmaxworld.tv/watch?id=640f9227a7f0a85046a1dc2f

end

‘Another Scandal’: Biden Admin ‘Radicals’ Blocked SVB Sale, Nationalized It, Then Blamed Trump For Collapse

TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 12:00 PM

Instead of spending taxpayer dollars to nationalize Silicon Valley Bank, a private buyer favored by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve had emerged, only to be nixed by FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing a source with knowledge of the situation.

Instead the regulators offered solutions that bail out even uninsured bank depositors and other banks at unknown costs that Mr. Biden isn’t acknowledging. –WSJ

Kevin Hassett, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Trump, told Fox Business that “there were buyers who were willing to step in & buy [SVB, but] the radicals at the @FDICgov basically weren’t going to allow that to happen … the Biden Admin had a whitelist of companies that were allowed to buy the failed bank & companies that weren’t.”

“If this is true,” said Grabien founder Tom Elliott, “then this is another Biden scandal.

While most banks have hedged their interest-rate risk and diversified their deposits, SVB and Signature bank did not – yet, President Biden is of course blaming former President Donald Trump for modifying certain rules from the 2010 Dodd-Frank act in the 2018 bipartisan banking law, which raised the threshold to classify financial institutions as ‘systemically important’ (Sifi) from $50 billion in assets to $250 billion.

Yet, as the Journal notes, Barney Frank, co-author of Dodd-Frank, thinks that’s BS, as the entire point of the 2018 legislation was to reduce costly compliance on mid-size banks so they could be more competitive with the giants – the latter of which benefit from a lower cost of funding due to their implicit government backstop. In short, the Dodd-Frank legislation was driving more deposits to large banks, while mid-size banks forced to comply with the same regulations were at a disadvantage.

The 2018 law did not excuse mid-sized banks from performing quarterly liquidity stress tests to ensure they could withstand “adverse market conditions,” and “combined market and idiosyncratic stresses,” such as interest-rate shocksMid-sized banks must also maintain a liquidity buffer of “highly liquid assets” such as Treasurys and MBS.

Something deeper afoot?

Biden’s blame game aside, crypto VC Nic Carter has some very interesting thoughts on what went down in regards to the shuttering of Signature Bank, calling it a “Colossal scandal.”

Continued;

Heard this independently from other sources as well. I suspected as much last night but confirmed today. Signature was executed last night not due to any runs but as a political scalp, intended to be veiled by the fog of war.

Apparently even FDIC was surprised when it was dropped into their hands. The claimed justification was Signatures Signet product, which was perceived to be “systemic”

My conclusion is that politicians like Liz Warren together with regulatory bodies fragilized crypto banks and encouraged runs against them, then used withdrawals as a pretext to close them down

What was meant to be a surgical operation became a massive banking crisis.

THE KING REPORT

The King Report March 10, 2023 Issue 6065Independent View of the News
The King Report March 14, 2023 Issue 6067Independent View of the News Fed’s Yellen (Fed Chair) expects no new financial crisis in ‘our lifetimes’    JUNE 27, 2017
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen/feds-yellen-expects-no-new-financial-crisis-in-our-lifetimes-idUSKBN19I2I5
 
WSJ: KPMG Gave SVB, Signature Bank Clean Bill of Health Weeks Before Collapse
Accounting firm faces scrutiny for audits of failed banks
   Silicon Valley Bank failed just 14 days after KPMG LLP gave the lender a clean bill of health. Signature Bank went down 11 days after the accounting firm signed off on its audit…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kpmg-faces-scrutiny-for-audits-of-svb-and-signature-bank-42dc49dd
 
It’s Wall Street & Silicon Valley vs. Main Street!  If the Fed and Team Biden rescue banks and large financial assets holders while inflation is high, Main Street is likely to suffer even more inflation.
 
Biden @POTUS (Sunday night): I’m firmly committed to holding those responsible for this mess fully accountable and to continuing our efforts to strengthen oversight and regulation of larger banks so that we are not in this position again. I’ll have more to say on this tomorrow morning.
 
On Monday, Biden blamed Trump for the banking failures.
 
@townhallcom: BIDEN: “During the Obama/Biden administration, we put in place tough requirements on banks…to make sure that the crisis we saw in 2008 would not happen again. Unfortunately, the last administration rolled back some of these requirements.” https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1635266430307565575
 
@WSJ: President Biden said the banking system is safe, as he stressed steps taken to limit the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and shore up confidence in the financial system
   “Thanks to the quick action of my administration over the past few days, Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe,” Mr. Biden said in televised remarks
 
Biden: “Americans can rest assured that our banking system is safe. Your deposits are safe… Let me also assure you we will not stop at this; we’ll do whatever is needed… Your deposits will be there when you need them…This is an important point: no losses will be borne by the taxpayers… Instead, the money will come from the fees that banks pay into the Deposit Insurance Fund… (More Biden utter BS and lies!  Total banking deposits are over $19T.  FDIC has ~$125B.) The managers of these banks will be fired…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/business/biden-assures-americans-our-banking-system-is-safe.html
 
FDIC has only about half the cash needed to cover roughly $264B in deposits at failed banks, report
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/fdic-has-128b-cash-hand-while-deposits-failed-banks-are-264b
 
Key Lender to Regional Banks Aims to Raise $64 Billion Via Bonds – BBG
The FHLB system, a key source of cash for regional banks, is seeking to raise about $64 billion through the sale of short-term notes… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-home-loan-banks-raise-154201384.html
 
@NewsBecker: Reporter: “Can you assure Americans that there won’t be a ripple effect? Do you expect other banks to fail?”  Joe Biden: ignores and walks awayhttps://t.co/0XTbi2lyLg
 
FDIC chair sounded alarms over US bank risks — just days before SVB implosion
Martin Gruenberg, the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), told finance lobbyists last Monday that massive “paper” losses totaling $620 billion — a staggering sum that could threaten a significant chunk of the US financial sector — “weaken a bank’s ability to meet unexpected liquidity needs.” “Meaningful deposit outflows have not yet materialized, but banks will need to watch these trends carefully as the interest rate environment evolves,” Gruenberg said.  “Most banks have some amount of unrealized losses on securities,” he said. “Unrealized losses on securities have meaningfully reduced the reported equity capital of the banking industry.”…  https://t.co/fFF6dupriR
 
Biden administration faces bipartisan criticism as regulators rush to stave off banking crisis
https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/biden-administration-tries-stave-financial-crisis-second-bank-fails
 
With Signature Bank’s Collapse, US Reformer Barney Frank Watches His Own Lender Fail
    Frank says Signature Bank could’ve remained a going concern
    Former congressman doesn’t blame Trump-era banking rules
It was a seemingly unthinkable scene: Barney Frank, co-author of the Dodd-Frank Act, the radical overhaul of the banking system after the 2008 global financial crisis, was having his very own Dick Fuld moment.  There was none of the Fuld-style shouting and ranting, but Frank, just like the former Lehman Brothers top executive had famously done, was taking to the phones to lament how authorities had unnecessarily shuttered the bank he helped oversee. Frank, to the surprise of some, landed on the board of Signature Bank, a New York-based lender that boomed during the pandemic. It was seized by regulators Sunday, making it the third US bank to collapse in just five days…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-13/barney-frank-us-banking-reformer-watches-his-own-lender-fail
 
WaPo’s @josephzeballos: Former Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) endorsed changes to his own Dodd-Frank law in 2018 that freed mid-sized banks from undergoing stress tests. He sits on Signature Bank’s board, which just collapsed. I reached him via phone tonight and he declined to comment.  https://t.co/JY77rtNkHt
 
First Republic Shares Sink in Sign of Broadening SVB ContagionU.S. bank says Fed, JPMorgan Push Liquidity to $70 BillionSays more liquidity available via Fed’s new lending facility  https://t.co/IFnXLLmlqm 
Schwab Says Co. Has ‘Significant Liquidity’ as Shares Whipsaw – BBG 8:47 ET
First Republic Bank Sinks Record 67% at the Open – BBG 9:30 ET
First Republic Bank (FRC) Paused due to volatility – DJ 9:31 ET
PacWest Halted for Volatility; Dropped 41% to Lowest on Record – BBG 9:33 ET
Western Alliance Bancorp Extends Rout to 81%, Halted Again – BBG 10:06 ET
First Republic Shares Sink by a Record 78% on SVB Turmoil – BBG 10:34 ET
Regional US Banks Plummet; Big Peers’ Fall Less Severe – BBG 10:13 ET
 
Big Take: SVB Crisis Exposes Systemic Risk of Tech Money Machine – BBG 7:04 ET
 
It’s Low Rates, Not Fed Tightening, That Caused SVB Collapse – BBG 8:10 ET
 
@FedGuy12: One reason why First Republic bank looks like its imploding could be because it actually can’t benefit from the Fed’s new bailout facility. You need Treasuries and Agency MBS to tap the facility, and they barely own any.  https://twitter.com/FedGuy12/status/1635263272705470467
 
MRC Business Reader: CNBC’s ‘Professional BS Artist; Jim Cramer Praised Another Bank, Stock Plunged 65% Three Days Later – He tweeted March 10 [FRC] is new focus… very good bank.”…
 
@DavidShafer: Signature Bank famously closed President Trump’s bank accounts to signal its virtue. Go woke, go broke.
 
@charliebilello: The 2-year US Treasury yield is down over 100 bps in the last 3 trading days (5.05% -> 4.04%), the largest 3-day decline in yields since the October 1987 stock market crash.
 
@NickTimiraos: Dan Tarullo: “We learned today that a $200 billion bank was too big to fail—or at least too big to be allowed to fail with losses borne by large depositors, as the bank resolution system assumes.”
 
@nytimesbusiness: Silicon Valley Bank provided services to nearly half of all venture-backed tech and life-science companies in the U.S., according to its website.
 
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: So, these SVB guys spend all their time funding woke garbage (“climate change solutions”) rather than actual banking and now want a handout from taxpayers to save them.
   Now we learn the Biden Admin will impose “special assessments” (= fees) on banks across the country to pay for the SVB bailout. No way MO customers are paying for a woke bailoutI will introduce legislation preventing any bank from passing these fees on to customers – And my legislation will exempt responsible community banks from the “special fees” to bail out the California billionaires.
 
BBG’s @SalehaMohsin: Regulators in Washington are scrutinizing the quality of supervision undertaken by Cali state authorities and the San Fran Fed, sources tell me + @KateDavidson. They’re  assessing whether SVB + Signature had done the required planning/stress testing as the Fed raised rates.
 
SF Fed President Mary Daly should resign or be dismissed.
 
GOP @RepThomasMassie: Let’s review the Federal Reserve Bank’s many roles, & how each of them enabled the SVB failure/malfeasance: (1) Santa Claus.  By keeping interest rates artificially low, FED stimulated the economy, & nudged those with capital into the VC space creating demand for a bank like SVB.  (2) Arsonist. FED created $5 trillion out of thin air so Congress could inject this money into the economy. There weren’t 5 trillion dollars to borrow during COVID, and certainly not at the low rates imposed by FED. Inflation was off to the races thanks to dilution.  (3) Firefighter. After setting the blaze, FED came to the rescue to fight inflation by rapidly increasing interest rates. As a result, net VC startup deposits into SVB slowed, while assets held by SVB (long-term low-interest government debt) became less valuable.  (4) Trauma Doctor. Will the FED play a role in bailing out SVB depositors and other banks? Possibly by lowering rates, buying their holdings at above value, or creating more money for bailouts. None of these are free. But the FED becomes Santa Claus again and inflation rages on.
 
US Treasury Officials Sees Some Institutions with Issues Similar to SVB – BBG
This situation is not 2008… Firms are not being bailed out, it’s depositors who are being protected… while adding that equity and bond holders are being wiped out… Right now, regulators are very much focused on the current situation, but they will be looking back to see whether there need to be new rules, official says.
 
For decades, there have been regular systemic shocks because the Fed has been too promiscuous while banks and brokers bought Congress.  Ergo, there have been NO MEANINGFUL reforms.
 
In 2008, US officials said they bailed out equity and bondholders because their loses would have generated systemic risks.  We will soon find out if they were right or wrong.
 
Silicon Valley Bank signed exclusive banking deals with some clients, leaving them unable to diversify – required some clients to agree to exclusivity clauses, disabling them from diversifying where they held their money, SEC records show
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/silicon-valley-bank-signed-exclusive-banking-deals-with-some-clients.html
 
@GordonJohnson19: Here’s why Silicon Valley Bank should NOT have been bailed out w/ taxpayer $. In short, they were offering below-market rates for loans to start ups with no earnings/negative free-cash-flow (“FCF”). The quid pro quo was those companies had to put that cash into deposits.
 
Many people did not believe Powell was serious about halting inflation.  Since the Fed started hiking rates, the usual suspects have incessantly warned that the Fed will blink as soon as something breaks.  Thus, the usual suspects did not reduce risks or prepare for substantially higher rates.
 
Now that something has broken, those that stridently asserted that Powell would blink at the first instance of trouble and pivot feel vindicated.  What happens next? Will Powell reflate assets and commodities?  How will this impact politics and the 2024 Election?
 
GOP Rep. @laurenboebert: If First Bank of Midland Texas Oil and Gas failed, you can be sure Biden would not be helping bail them out.  This bailout is 100% about protecting the donor base of the Democrats and ensuring if you invest in DEI and ESG you’ll be just fine!
 
GOP @RepMTG: The Fed is extending loans against high quality assets to banks for nearly zero interest to prevent a run on the banks Monday all because SVB didn’t insure over 89% of their deposits and instead hedged on failing funds that offered “sustainable finance and carbon neutral operations to support a healthier planet.”
   In other words, the fools running the bank were woke and almost became broke, but the Democrats and the Fed swooped in to make sure their woke donors at SVB didn’t go under.  But how many other small banks will be swept up into this pending disaster.  The serious threat here is that with full loans to banks on basically next to zero interest from the Fed will drive down the value of assets owned by banks that aren’t in trouble. And that will cause them to be in trouble. They are manufacturing a banking crisis.  This should not be happening.
 
@RetroCoast: SVB is in Nancy Pelosi’s district and caters to tech companies- so it’s getting a bailout…
 
GOP @RepThomasMassie (Sunday night): Just got off of a zoom meeting with Fed, Treasury, FDIC, House, and Senate. A Democrat Senator essentially asked whether there was a program in place to censor information on social media that could lead to a run on the banks.
 
GOP presidential candidates react to Silicon Valley Bank collapse; Trump blames ‘out-of-control Democrats’ – Nikki Haley says, ‘The era of big government and corporate bailouts must end’
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-presidential-candidates-react-silicon-valley-bank-collapse-trump-blames-out-control-dems
 
The GOP, like we opined, is using a page from Dem’s envy playbook (used very effectively in 2008) to inflame the masses by accusing Dems of bailing out their donor class.
 
Mark Cuban reportedly had between $8-10 Million at Silicon Valley Bank
https://www.thestreet.com/technology/mark-cuban-had-millions-at-failed-silicon-valley-bank
 
@JonathanTurley: Michael Shellenberger is reporting that Senator Mark Kelly called for social media censorship to prevent bank runs. It is another example of the slippery slope of censorship for Democrats.
 
ESHs rallied sharply during Asian trading on the non-bailout bailout and the notion that the Fed must pivot.  ESHs peaked at 3971.50 (2:52 ET); they then sank until a rally began 7 minutes before the US repo market open at 7 ET.  At 7:07 ET, ESHs began a decline that ended 10 minutes after the NYSE open.  The usual suspects are always eager to buy a dip, and the perceived Fed pivot increased the enthusiasm to buy stuff.  The rally peaked at 11:58 ET. An extended A-B-C ESH decline ended at the close.
 
Xi Jinping vows to make Chinese military ‘great wall of steel’ as tensions rise with west https://t.co/l7Zs7vPLxi
 
Xi Jinping and Li Qiang in Focus as China’s Communist Party Ends Elite GatheringXi calls for Chinese self-reliance in technologyLi says achieving 5% growth goal won’t be easyVows to add jobs, study retirement policyCalls on US to implement Xi-Biden November consensusChina’s President Xi Jinping vowed to oppose foreign interference on Taiwan as he delivered his closing remarks at the annual National People’s Congress…  https://t.co/M7oZHc4nlJ
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Another bailout occurred, stocks soared
Fangs rallied sharply on the non-bailout bailout of Silicon Valley companies
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Regional banks got crushed; big banks and the $ sank, precious metals soared; for the 2nd straight session
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How much will inflation jump on the latest Fed largesse?
USHs hit 132 30/32 (+3 19/32) at 9:41 ET and then fell to 130 16/32 at 15:21 ET
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3856.56
Previous session High/Low3905.05; 3808.86
 
@CBS_Herridge: Records reviewed by CBS News indicate the U.S. government may have paid twice for projects at China’s Wuhan labs through the National Institutes of Health and USAID. A probe into the funding is raising questions about the use of the money. https://twitter.com/CBS_Herridge/status/1635266832281260032
 
@ClayTravis: So not only did American taxpayer dollars fund gain of function research in Wuhan, China, but we may have paid for this research twice and been double billed by the Chinese. All of this keeps getting worse. Charge Fauci.
 
Today – Due to the US banking imbroglio, the February CPI Report will have diminished impact – unless it is worse than expected.  Do you think Team Biden/The Fed would allow the BLS to publish a bad CPI?
 
Stay away; wait for news and developments.  Only play if you must!  There is no telling what evil lurks out there!  ESHs are +10.50 at 21:00 ET.
 
Expected economic data: Feb CPI 0.4% m/m & 6% y/y, Core 0.4% & 5.5% y/y
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4001; 100-day MA: 3947; 150-day MA: 3939; 200-day MA: 3940
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,459; 100-day MA: 33,266; 150-day MA: 32,619; 200-day MA: 32,392
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3845.89 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4019.34 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3917.48 triggers a buy signal
 
Babylon Bee: Biden Assures Americans Their Bank Deposits Are Safe In Ukraine
https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-assures-americans-their-life-savings-is-safe-in-ukraine
 
@Truth_Gazette: Tucker on the mainstream media: “They’re not here to inform you. They are working for the small group of people who actually run the world. They’re their servants. Their Praetorian Guard. And we should treat them with maximum contempt because they have earned it.”
https://twitter.com/Truth_Gazette/status/1635086913202966529
 
@emeriticus: Mo Brooks gave a speech at the Ellipse on January 6, saying, “Today is the day American patriots start taking down names and kicking ass.”  Trump repaid Brooks by endorsing Katie Britt instead of helping him during a difficult race. “Loyalty.”
   Barletta was one of Trump’s earliest endorsers. He was so loyal he challenged Bob Casey Jr. at Trump’s behest but ultimately lost. Trump repaid Barletta by endorsing Mastriano over him in last year’s gubernatorial race, effectively destroying the career of this immigration hawk.
 
Ex-liberal icon Dr. Naomi Wolf: Dear Conservatives, I Apologize
My “Team” was Taken in By Full-Spectrum Propaganda
   I believed a farrago of lies… The footage was released by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to Fox News commentator Tucker Carlson.  While “fact-checkers” state that it is “misinformation” to claim that Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi was in charge of Capitol Police on that day, the fact is that the USCP is under the oversight of Congress, according to — the United States Capitol Police:…
   There is no way to unsee Officer Brian Sicknick, claimed by some Democrats in leadership and by most of the legacy media to have been killed by rioters at the Capitol that day, alive in at least one section of the newly released video. The USCP medical examiner states that this Officer died of “natural causes,” but also that he died “in the line of duty.”… the circumstances of his death do matter to the public, as without his death having been caused by the events of Jan 6, the breach of the capitol, serious though it was, cannot be described as a “deadly insurrection.”… Officer Sicknick died two days after Jan 6, from suffering two strokes…
   There is no way for anyone thoughtful, even if he or she is a lifelong Democrat, not to notice that Sen Chuck Schumer did not say to the world that the footage that Mr Carlson aired was not real. Rather, he warned that it was “shameful” for Fox to allow us to see it…
   Sen Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Senate minority leader, did not say the video on Fox News was fake or doctored. He said, rather, that it was “a mistake” to depart from the views of the events held by the chief of the Capitol Police. This is a statement from McConnell about orthodoxy — not a statement about a specific truth or untruth…
   There is no way to un-hear the interview that Mr Carlson did with former Capitol police office Tarik Johnson, who said that he received no guidance when he called his superiors, terrified, as the Capitol was breached, to ask for direction…
   Peaceful Republicans and conservatives as a whole have been demonized by the story told by Democrats in leadership of what happened that day…
   I also believed wholesale so much else that has since turned out not to be as I was told it was by NPR, MSNBC and The New York Times…  https://naomiwolf.substack.com/p/dear-conservatives-i-am-sorry
 

GREG HUNTER REPORT//

Greg Hunter  

I will see you  TOMORROW

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