IDES OF MARCH (MARCH 15)//BANKING CRISIS CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO CREDIT SUISSE WHICH CAUSES ALL MARKETS TO PLUMMET EXCEPT GOLD: GOLD CLOSED UP $18.75 TO $1925.15//SILVER DOES NOT BENEFIT AS IT CLOSES DOWN 7 CENTS TO $21.84//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN 426.60 TO $962.75 AND PALLADIUM CLOSES DOWN $45.20 TO $4463.25//COVID UPDATES: DR PANDA/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT, SLAY NEWS/RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 53 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 265 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9 661 C JP MORGAN 446 1 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 14 737 C ADVANTAGE 11 26 905 C ADM 117
TOTAL: 471 471 MONTH TO DATE: 3,807
JPMORGAN stopped 1/471 contracts
DONATE
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT: 471 NOTICES FOR 47100 OZ or 1.4650 TONNES
total notices so far: 3807 contracts for 380700 oz (11.841 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 35 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 175,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3006 for 15,030,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $18.75
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://////(
INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.07
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 478.235. MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY AN GIGANTIC SIZED 2134 CONTRACTS TO 121,772 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.09 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY . WE AGAIN ARE CLOSING IN ON OUR NEW LOW COMEX OI SILVER SET AT 121,299 CONTRACTS , MARCH 3/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.09). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 141 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 2275 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.58 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 90,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 15.285 MILLION OZ + THE 1.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 16.285 MILLION OZ/ //// V) GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –245 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 9211 contracts: OR 46.055 MILLION OZ . (837 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 46.055 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 46.055 MILLION OZ//INITIAL//ON PAR WITH LAST MONTH
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OFDESPITE OUR $0.09 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2275 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF 15.58 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 90,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 1.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN MARCH (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 16.285 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 141OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 35 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 175,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8973 CONTRACTS TO 459,064 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 964 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 8973 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $4.75 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ (0.3110 TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London).
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $4.75 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 4062 OI CONTRACTS (12.63 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4911 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 459,064
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4062 CONTRACTS WITH 8973CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4911 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4062 CONTRACTS OR 12.634 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4911 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (8,973) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 4062 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 11.9844 TONNES // ///3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION //4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 46,191 CONTRACTS OR 4,619,100 OZ OR 143.673 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4199 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 143.673 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 146.673/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.14% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 146.673 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2134 CONTRACTS OI TO 121,772 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 121,299 CONTRACTS MARCH 3/2022 AND WE MAY SURPASS THIS RECORD SOME THIS THIS WEEK.
EFP ISSUANCE 2275 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 2275 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2275 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2134CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2275 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A FAIR LOSS OF 141 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //0.705 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.09 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.86 PTS OR 0.55% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 291.91 PTS OR % 1.52 /The Nikkei closed UP 7.44% PTS OR 0.03% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.86% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.9075//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9064// /Oil DOWN TO 70.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 76.43 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 8973 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 459,064 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4,75 ON TUESDAY
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4911 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 4911 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4911 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 4062 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4911LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 8,973 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GOOD SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.75. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAR (11.9844) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 11.9844 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $4.75) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 4,062 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 12.634 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000OZ (0.31104 TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $4.75
WE HAD -964 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4062 CONTRACTS OR 406,200 OZ OR 12.634 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3807 notices 380,700 11.8410 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 2
i) out of HSBC: 12,024.474 oz
ii) Out of JPMorgan: 64,334.251 0z (2001 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 64,334.251 oz oz
in tonnes: 2.00 tonnes
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 517 contracts having LOST 215 contracts. We had 315 notices filed on TUESDAY so we
gained A HUGE 100 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will stand for metal at the comex
April lost 14,003 contracts down to 208,815 contracts
May LOST 24 contracts to stand at 234
We had 417 notice(s) filed today for 41700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 446 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 471 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3,807 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR. 517 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 417 x 100 oz per contract equals 385,300 OZ OR 11.9844 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of MARCH.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:
No of notices filed so far (3,807 x 100 oz+ 517 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (471)x 100 oz} which equals 385,300 oz standing OR 11.9844 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH..
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3006 x 5,000 oz = 15,030,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(86) and the number of notices served upon today 35 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month: 3006 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (86) – number of notices served upon today (35) x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 15.285 million oz +the 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//new total standing 16.285 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 913.27 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 478.235 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff: The 2023 Financial Crisis Has Begun!
As we start to sort through the fallout of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and the government’s reaction to it, the next question is: what’s next?
Government officials and mainstream pundits insist everything is fine now. They say quick government action averted a crisis. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff said this is really just the beginning of the next financial crisis.
This is no longer the 2008 financial crisis. This is the 2023 crisis. It’s been a long time – fifteen years since we had a financial crisis. I’m surprised it’s taken this long for this crisis to begin. But I’m not surprised we are having a crisis.”
Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury took quick steps to address the failure of the two big banks. Peter called it “the plunge protection team.”
In order to prevent bank runs and shore up the system, they created a mechanism to ensure nobody loses their deposits – even those that weren’t insured by the FDIC. They also set up a loan program that effectively bails out any other banks that might be on shaky ground.
While these actions only kick the can down the road, Peter said the situation would have been much worse had the government not announced this bailout. We would have almost certainly had more bank failures.
Of course, government officials, including President Biden insist this isn’t a bailout.
Nobody wants to admit it’s a bailout because, obviously, the bailouts were not popular, and so they want to distance themselves from that language. But this absolutely is a bailout.”
Government officials can plausibly claim they are not bailing out the failed banks because they are letting the institutions go under. But the bank’s customers are getting bailed out.
They would have lost money. But now they’re not going to lose money. Why? Because the government is going to make up their losses.”
Biden and others also swear taxpayers aren’t on the hook for any of this.
OK, well, then where’s the money going to come from? The man in the moon? Of course, the taxpayers are going to pay. But they may not pay in the form of taxes because nobody has the integrity to actually raise middle-class taxes. But that doesn’t mean the taxpayers are going to get away with this. They’re going to pay for it. It’s just that they’re not going to pay for it with higher taxes. They’re going to pay for it with higher prices.”
On Sunday the Fed announced the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). This program will offer loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging US Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral. Banks will be able to borrow against their assets “at par” (face value).
In effect, the plan creates a mechanism for banks to acquire capital they couldn’t otherwise access under normal market conditions. And of course, the Fed will create the money for these loans out of thin air.
In fact, as far as I’m concerned, today marks the return to quantitative easing. So, we are now officially in QE 5. And I expect the Fed’s balance sheet to go up from here.”
Peter said it’s amazing that just a week ago, people were still talking about the Fed slaying inflation while bringing the economy to a “soft landing.” Meanwhile, he was saying the only way the Fed could succeed in getting inflation anywhere near 2% is by creating not just a recession, but a financial crisis.
So, it wasn’t just that we were going to have a recession. We were going to have another financial crisis. And I also said that the financial crisis that the Fed was going to create this time would be worse than the one that it created in 2008. And that’s exactly where we are.”
Peter said this financial crisis is already so much worse that the government effectively raised FDIC protection from $250,000 to infinity.
They just set the precedent. I know they haven’t codified it into law. But they just set the precedent of bailing out the depositors of these two banks.”
And with the wave of a wand, the federal government effectively took on an extra $7 trillion in unfunded liabilities. (The total of uninsured bank deposits.)
Meanwhile, many more banks were going to fail had the government not backstopped them.
Those executives were bailed out because they would have lost their jobs when their banks went under, but now their banks are not going to go under because of the bailout. A lot of stockholders would have lost their money. But now they’re not going to lose their money because of these bailouts. Yes, there are a couple of people who got punished. But all of these other banking executives who made the same mistakes, who have the same overleveraged balance sheets — they’re all going to get bailed out.”
Biden said he was going to find the people responsible for this situation and punish them and hold them accountable. Peter pointed out that one of them is right in his administration.
She’s the secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen. The people responsible for this mess are all the chairmen and chair ladies of the Federal Reserve starting with Alan Greenspan right up to Powell.”
Nevertheless, the powers-that-be claim their quick action prevented bank runs and the financial system remains sound. “Your money is safe,” they say.
Peter disagrees.
As a result of these bailouts, the money that people have on deposit at banks is at greater risk than ever. In fact, it’s not just the deposits at these failed banks. But every deposit at every bank is now at risk. And the reason is because of inflation. Massive inflation is going to be created to pay for these bailouts. A return to quantitative easing. Prices are going to go through the roof. That means the purchasing power of bank deposits is going to fall through the floor.”
In this podcast, Peter goes on to explain the dynamics behind the bailouts.
END
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
end
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA AND OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD COMMENTARIES
Correct: treasuries are not risk free after all:
(Clint Siegner/GATA)
Clint Siegner: It turns out that Treasuries aren’t risk-free after all
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-03-14 19:49Section: Daily Dispatches
By Clint Siegner Money Metals News Service, Eagle, Idaho Monday, March 13, 2023
The high-profile collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week is a story about bad debt, just not in the way most people think.
Bank executives didn’t issue too many loans to poor quality borrowers. They made what they believed to be conservative investments in the safest of all assets. The bad debt turned out to be U.S. Treasuries – an asset class they assumed to be “risk-free.”
This assumption was reinforced by regulatory requirements which artificially incentivize bankers to hold U.S. Treasuries as a tier one asset and bulletproof collateral
Today they are questioning the conventional wisdom about the risks of holding U.S. debt. So are investors and finance executives everywhere.
Rising interest rates led to catastrophic losses in SVB’s portfolio of Treasury debt and mortgage backed securities. The losses created a capital shortfall and spawned a good old fashioned bank run. Regulators stepped in and closed the bank Friday.
The trouble is that SVB is not alone. Virtually every bank in the western hemisphere is holding the same debt to a greater or lesser degree, for the same reasons. Until this moment, few outside the community of goldbugs really bothered to reassess whether Treasuries are still risk free. …
Shades of 2008: accountant gave SVB and Signature Bank a clean bill of health just days before their collapse
(Wall Street Journal/GATA)
Accountants gave SVB, Signature Bank clean bill of health just before collapse
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-03-14 12:02Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jonathan Weil and Jean Eaglesham The Wall Street Journal Monday, March 13, 2023
Silicon Valley Bank failed just 14 days after KPMG LLP gave the lender a clean bill of health. Signature Bank went down 11 days after the accounting firm signed off on its audit.
What KPMG knew about the two banks’ financial situation and what it missed will likely be the subject of regulatory scrutiny and lawsuits
KPMG signed the audit report for Silicon Valley Bank’s parent on Feb. 24. Regulators seized the bank on March 10 after a surge of withdrawals threatened to leave it short of cash.
“Common sense tells you that an auditor issuing a clean report, a clean bill of health, on the 16th-largest bank in the United States that within two weeks fails without any warning, is trouble for the auditor,” said Lynn Turner, who was chief accountant of the Securities and Exchange Commission from 1998 to 2001.
Two crucial facts for determining whether KPMG missed the banks’ problems are when the bank runs began in earnest and when the bank’s management and KPMG’s auditors became aware of the crisis. …
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9075
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9064
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.86 PTS OR 0.55%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 291.91 PTS OR 1.52 %
2. Nikkei closed UP 7.44 PTS OR 0.03%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.11 Euro FALLS TO 1.0593 DOWN 129 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.315!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 133.58/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.245%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.168%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.348…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.221//
3j Gold at $1923.55//silver at: 22.18 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 60/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 75.92//
3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 133.58/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .315% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9238–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9790well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.526% DOWN 11 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.695 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.0010 DOWN 22 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,98…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.4050% DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
“The Market Is Being Brutal”: Futures Crash As Banks Crisis Slams Europe, Credit Suisse Craters
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 08:04 AM
Just when it seemed that futures may finally be stabilizing after a week of rollercoaster moves and one day after US regional banks rebounded amid hopes that the US small bank run was easing, the bank crisis made a triumphant arrival in Europe where (just as we warned yesterday) it was all about Credit Suisse.
The Swiss Bank, already trading at all time lows after it said yesterday that its financial reports had a material weakness, cratered more than 20%…
… and its CDS exploded to record highs…
… after the bank’s top shareholder, Saudi National Bank Chairman Ammar Al Khudairy, whose stake has lost more than one-third of its value in three months, ruled out investing any more in the troubled Swiss bank as a bigger holding would bring additional regulatory hurdles.
“The answer is absolutely not, for many reasons outside the simplest reason, which is regulatory and statutory,” Al Khudairy said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Wednesday. That was in response to a question on whether the bank was open to further injections if there was another call for additional liquidity.
The comment hammered not only CS stock and CDS, but sparked panic amid the entire European banking sector…
… leading to headlines such as these…
STOXX 600 BANKS INDEX EXTENDS SLIDE TO 4.1%
BNP PARIBAS SLUMPS AS MUCH AS 8%
SOCGEN SHARES DROP 7.3%
… as Europe’s Stoxx 600 equity benchmark fell more than 2%, with a gauge of banks plunging as much as 6%, and sparking a fresh rout in S&P futures which after trading mostly unchanged for much of the session, cratered as much as 2%, with Nasdaq futures tagging along. The fresh panic sent investors scrambling for safety, and Treasury yields tumbled both in the US and Europe…
…while Gold soared.
“Credit Suisse’s top holder’s comments are adding to the already negative sentiment towards banks,” said Ricardo Gil, head of asset allocation at Trea Asset Management. “The market is being brutal.”
The Credit Suisse contagion then quickly spread back to the US as shares of other large US banks sank in premarket trading. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Vacasa shares decline 11% after the vacation rental management company gave a first-quarter revenue forecast that was weaker than expected.
Smartsheet shares gain 12% on low volumes, after the software company gave a positive forecast for full-year adjusted EPS, compared with the loss that analysts had been expecting. It also reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations, though it gave a full-year revenue forecast that was weaker than expected.
Lulu’s Fashion Lounge Holdings jumps 9.5% in extended trading on Tuesday after reporting fourth-quarter net revenue that topped the average analyst estimate and a smaller-than-anticipated adjusted Ebitda loss.
“Short-term sentiment across markets remains volatile,” said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management. “Steps taken by the Fed and FDIC have helped contain the issues related to US banks and so there should be no lasting impact on financial stability. However, rising volatility, prospect for more regulation and concerns that tighter lending standards could slow growth are all factors that can weigh somewhat on equity and credit markets and lead to somewhat higher risk premiums than we had assigned last week.”
“Central banks are likely to be more cautious as they monitor the tightening in credit conditions,” said Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management. “However, one major difference with previous banking crisis episodes is a more resilient macro backdrop including persistent inflationary pressures. This will make for a difficult trade-off between inflation and financial stability risks.”
“With the regional banks playing a key role in US credit extension, the Fed will not raise interest rates next week, and we have likely seen the peak in both short and long rates during this cycle,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.
US stocks had been hit in the past week following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on fears of a possible risk of contagion. Until this morning, all eyes are now on the Fed’s policy meeting next week for clues on whether the central bank will push ahead with previous signals on keeping rates higher for longer or take steps to tone down its hawkish policy; however in light of today’s events we can probably forget any rate hikes again. In fact…
*FED SWAPS PRICE IN 100BP OF RATE CUTS BY DEC FROM EXPECTED PEAK
“The overall assessment of the economy, monetary policy and the financial system has become more difficult and that in itself warrants a more cautious approach to risk,” said Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. Meanwhile, strategists Sarah McCarthy and Mark Diver at Sanford C. Bernstein said that while the recent slump has made investor sentiment more bearish, its not yet pessimistic enough to show a contrarian buy indication.
European stocks were obviously in freefall, with all sectors dragged lower by Credit Suisse which slumped 22% to a record low after its top shareholder ruled out providing more assistance. Other European banks followed suit, pushing the Stoxx 600 2.2% lower while the bank index falls 5.6%. The Stoxx 600 Banks Index was 5.9% lower, reaching the lowest since early January, making it the worst performing sector in Europe.
Earlier in the session, Asia – blissfully unaware of the drama about to unfold – closed mostly in the green with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbning as much as 1.4%, led higher by a rebound in financial stocks from three days of losses in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. Tech stocks including Tencent, Alibaba and Samsung were among the biggest individual contributors to the benchmark’s gain. Investors also evaluated data showing China’s retail sales and industrial output rose in the first two months of the year following the end of Covid restrictions.
The stock gains come one day after the key Asian gauge erased its gain for the year amid the global turmoil sparked by SVB’s failure. Asian equities posted losses last month on concerns over China’s economy and higher-for-longer US interest rates. “There has been some derisking that has taken place and I think that sets up people to reload, and if markets then begin to regain the momentum, I think there is buying power on the sidelines not just from hedge funds but also mutual funds, sovereign wealth and a number of other pools of capital,” Timothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a Bloomberg television interview. Major equity indexes rose more than 1% in Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and elsewhere. The Hang Seng Tech Index surged as much as 3.9% as Goldman Sachs said the risk-reward for platform companies “looks good” after substantial derating
Japan’s Topix stock index rose as investors bet the worst of the global fallout from the American banking sector has passed. The Topix advanced 0.6% to 1,960.12 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 was virtually unchanged at 27,229.48. Shares also gained after a report showed US inflation data was roughly in-line with expectations, cooling concerns of further Fed interest-rate hikes. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 4.7%. Out of 2,159 stocks in the index, 1,740 rose and 354 fell, while 65 were unchanged.
Stocks in India were the biggest decliners in Asia as index-heavy banking stocks slid for the fifth consecutive day, the worst such streak since last month. The S&P BSE Sensex Index fell 0.6% to 57,555.90 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.4% to 16,972.15. The five-day drop in the key gauges has pushed them within 1% of entering a technical correction after they surged to their record peaks in December. A gauge of financial companies, banks and shadow lenders has come under pressure in recent sessions on continuing troubles at sector peers in the US. Analysts are turning cautious on the outlook for banks as rising interest rates and a fears of a slowdown in economic growth start to hurt loan demand. Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex decline, decreasing 1.7%. Out of 30 stocks in the index, nine rose and 21 fell.
In FX, a gauge of the dollar’s strength extended gains after four days of declines, climbing as much as 0.7%; the Japanese yen, a haven currency, outperformed.
As they sold everything else, investors flocked to perceived safe-haven assets with Treasuries, bunds and gilts all catching a bid. Treasuries extended gains in early US trading as stock losses deepen. Treasury yields were richer by 20bp to 12bp across the curve in a sharp bull-steepening move with front-end outperforming on the day, steepening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~4bp and ~5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.54%, richer by 15bp vs Tuesday close, following similar gains in bunds while 10-year gilts lag by around 7bp. Focal points of US session focus include data releases including February PPI and retail sales at 8:30am New York time. Money markets aggressively pared ECB tightening wagers ahead of Thursday’s policy outcome; traders priced 37.5bps of hikes compared to as much as 47bps earlier. The yield on two-year German notes dropped as much as 33 basis points
In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $70 a barrel in New York for the first time since late 2021 as investors remain on edge after last week’s bank failures. Spot gold reversed an earlier fall to trade higher by 0.2%.
To the day ahead now, and in the UK the government will deliver their Budget announcement. Otherwise, data releases from the US include February’s PPI and retail sales, along with the NAHB housing market index for March and the Empire State manufacturing survey for March. In the Euro Area, we’ll also get January’s industrial production data. Finally, earnings releases include Adobe.
Top Overnight News
Credit Suisse Group AG Chairman Axel Lehmann said government assistance “isn’t a topic” for the lender as the Swiss bank seeks to shore up confidence among clients, investors and regulators after a series of missteps: BBG
China’s economic data for Jan & Feb was largely inline (although pointed to improved momentum amid reopening), with industrial production +2.4% YTD (vs. the St +2.6%), retail sales +3.5% (vs. the St +3.5%), and fixed asset investment +5.5% (vs. the St +4.5%). WSJ
Japanese companies preparing to raise wages by 2.85% during the spring compensation talks that end today, up significantly from +2.2% last year and the fastest rate of change since 1997. RTRS
The cost of insuring Credit Suisse bonds against default in the near term is close to 1,000 bps, about 20 times more than for UBS and 10 times for Deutsche Bank. The CDS curve is also deeply inverted. Chairman Axel Lehmann said government help “isn’t a topic.” Saudi National Bank “absolutely” won’t provide more assistance, its chairman said. The stock tumbled further in Zurich. BBG
The Federal Reserve is rethinking a number of its own rules related to midsize banks following the collapse of two lenders, potentially extending restrictions that currently only apply to the biggest Wall Street firms. A raft of tougher capital and liquidity requirements are under review, as well as steps to beef up annual “stress tests” that assess banks’ ability to weather a hypothetical recession, according to a person familiar with the latest thinking among U.S. regulators. WSJ
A senior Republican on the House Financial Services Committee called for the gov’t to temporarily provide unlimited deposit insurance to prevent further contagion and Rep. Maxine Waters says expanded deposit insurance is “on the table”. Politico
S&P said it doesn’t expect to place other US banks on negative watch for now as deposit outflows don’t appear unmanageable at the moment. Also, The head of one of the world’s largest asset managers called Moody’s Investors Service’s outlook cut for the US banking system “a terrible overreaction” and said regulators had reassured the market following the collapse of three lenders. “There were a lot of unique circumstances around the banks in question — both on the asset and liabilities side,” State Street Corp. Chief Executive Officer Ron O’Hanley said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Wednesday. “I don’t think it’s helpful when rating agencies treat entire sectors the same way.” RTRS / BBG
Regional bank leaders are snapping up shares of their companies’ stocks, taking advantage of a selloff fueled by the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. More than 100 executives at lenders across the US, including PacWest Bancorp, Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. and CVB Financial Corp., spent at least $13.9 million combined boosting their stakes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Most of the transactions took place in the past few days. BBG
FRC spoke to at least one PE firm about raising capital before the gov’t took steps Sun night to stabilize the industry and prior to securing a financing pact w/JPMorgan. RTRS
Bank of America Corp. mopped up more than $15 billion in new deposits in a matter of days, emerging as one of the big winners after the collapse of three smaller banks dented confidence in the safety of regional lenders. BBG
The Federal Reserve is considering changes to its oversight of midsized banks following the collapse of three lenders in the past week, according to a person familiar with the matter: BBG
China’s bond trading was disrupted on Wednesday morning after the regulator reportedly told money brokers to suspend their data feeds due to security concerns: BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive as they followed suit to the gains in global counterparts after banking contagion fears eased and markets found some relief in the absence of any additional bank failures, although the advances were limited as participants also digested mixed Chinese activity data. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in tech which took impetus from the outperformance of the sector stateside following Meta’s jobs and cost-cutting plans albeit with gains capped as the energy industry lagged after oil prices recently dipped to a fresh YTD low. Nikkei 225 initially climbed as banking stocks atoned for the recent turmoil although price action in Japan was choppy and the index eventually gave back all of its early gains heading into the conclusion of the spring wage negotiations while there are talks of solid wage increases among the large companies. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded higher with the outperformance in Hong Kong driven by strength in tech and developers, while sentiment in the mainland is underpinned after the PBoC injected funds via its 1-year MLF and 7-day reverse repos but with upside capped following mixed industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed asset investment data releases.
Top Asian News
PBoC announced to lend CNY 481bln through 1-year MLF vs. CNY 200bln maturing with the rate kept unchanged at 2.75% and injected CNY 104bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00%.
PBoC said it will step up financing support for private small firms and will support reasonable bond financing needs of private companies, according to Reuters.
China’s FX regulator said it will prevent external shocks and risks, as well as deepen reforms and the opening up of the forex sector. It will continue pushing forward facilitating cross-border trade and financing, while it will guarantee the safety, liquidity and value of FX reserve assets, according to Reuters.
China stats bureau said economic operations showed a stabilising and recovery although the foundation of the economic recovery is not solid yet and that China’s economy still faces difficulties this year including global risks. Furthermore, it said China faces pressure and challenges in achieving the 2023 growth target but added that consumption will show a significant recovery this year and that China will continue to take measures to boost consumption.
BoJ Governor Kuroda said the BoJ must maintain current monetary easing but there will also likely be scope to consider steps to address the side-effects of easy policy, while he added the BoJ will surely head for an exit from easy policy and has the ability to do so when the inflation target is sustainably and stably met.
BoJ Minutes from the January meeting stated that members agreed Japan’s economy is expected to recover and inflation is likely to slow towards the latter half of next fiscal year, while it reiterated the importance of current monetary easing policy and many members said more time was needed to gauge the impact of BoJ steps on market function.
Japan’s Ruling Party proposes a JPY 30k cash handout to low-income households, with an additional JPY 50k per child, via Kyodo citing a senior official; Japan PM Kishida says the government is to mobilise all measures available to prepare the environment for wage hikes, to increase minimum wages beyond JPY 1k nationwide.
European bourses are under marked pressure as sentiment sees a marked deterioration as Banking names slip, SX7P -5.3%, amid renewed focus on Credit Suisse, -18.0%; Euro Stoxx 50 -2.4%. Sectors are predominantly in the red with Banking names underperforming and more broadly there is a defensive bias emerging, as Healthcare remains the only sector in the green. Stateside, US futures are directionally in-fitting with the above though magnitudes slightly more contained at present, ES -1.1%.
Top European News
ECB is still leaning towards a 50bp rate hike on Thursday, given calming markets, stubborn inflation and credibility concerns, via Reuters citing sources. New projections still show inflation significantly above 2% target in 2023, slightly above in 2025. To raise underlying inflation projections. Piece adds that dovish members felt vindicated by recent market turbulence and were likely to push back against committing to further hikes, instead saying any move would be data dependent.
IFW, on Germany: sees inflation 5.4% in 2023, 2.1% in 2024. GDP at 0.5% (prev. 0.3%) in 2023 and 1.4% (prev. 1.3%) in 2024. Ifo says German inflation is to fall in to 6.2% in 2023, and 2.2% in 2024; sees GDP at -0.1% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024.
Turkey’s Parliament will likely ratify Finland’s NATO accession bid before it closes in mid-April, according to two Turkish officials.
FX
The DXY has experienced a marked turnaround from initial 103.44 lows, with the index now comfortably above 104.00 amid the latest banking concerns. Action which has been exacerbated by a marked safe-haven spike in fixed income which has eroded the earlier EUR/USD upside on RTRS ECB sources around 50bp for Thursday; EUR/USD at 1.0667 trough vs 1.0759 peak. Given the size of the USD move, G10 peers ex-JPY are softer across the board with the CHF leading the downside given the latest focal point for banking sector concern is Credit Suisse; USD/CHF testing 0.92 and EUR/CHF above 0.98. As mentioned, JPY is the outperformer given its traditional haven allure and is below the 134.00 mark within 133.76-135.11 parameters. Elsewhere, GBP succumbs to the USD pre-budget while antipodeans and CAD slip as well though the latter is deriving some relative support from comparably resilient crude prices. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8680 vs exp. 6.8650 (prev. 6.8949)
Fixed Income
EGBs lead broad and marked debt recovery as banking stocks tank, Bunds fade just shy of 136.00 vs a 133.33 low on ECB sources suggesting a 50bp hike is still favoured on Thursday.
Gilts rebound in slipstream alongside US Treasuries within 104.47-103.12 and 114-15+/113-08+ respective ranges.
df
Commodities
WTI and Brent front-month futures are on the backfoot amid the mentioned deterioration in risk sentiment, with the benchmarks trimming initial upside and are now near unchanged on the session.
Specifically, WTI and Brent are at the lower end of USD 71.50-72.56/bbl and USD 77.69-78.73/bbl parameters respectively.
Elengy confirms strikes on three French LNG terminals has been extended until 21st March.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.2mln (exp. +1.2mln), Gasoline -4.6mln (exp. -1.8mln), Distillate -2.9mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing -0.9mln.
Oil output at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz refinery was at 645k BPD on March 10th (vs 563k between March 1-6), according to sources.
IEA OMR (Feb): 2023 global oil demand upgraded 200k BPD to 101.9mln BPD (prev. 101.7mln BPD); oil supply is outstripping lacklustre demand, but market will balance in the middle of the year
China is to lower steel production in order to attain climate goals, according to Bloomberg sources.
Spot gold has managed to glean a haven bid from the latest turn in sentiment, with the yellow metal modestly firmer on the session and above USD 1900/oz compared to the earlier USD 1885/oz low; in contrast, given the tone, base metals are slumping.
Geopolitics
China tells its military to deepen war preparedness planning, Xinhua reports.
US military confirmed that a Russian fighter jet struck the propeller of a US military Reaper drone, forcing the US to bring it down over the Black Sea.
US summoned the Russian ambassador regarding the downing of the US drone over the Black Sea, while Russia views the drone incident as a provocation, according to RIA citing Russia’s ambassador.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said the top command’s unanimous position is to strengthen Bakhmut’s defence and inflict maximum losses on the enemy, according to Reuters.
Yahoo News said it obtained Russia’s secret document regarding a plan for destabilising Moldova and promoting Russian interests in the country.
Honduras announced it is to establish diplomatic ties with China, while Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it urges Honduras to carefully consider the decision to build ties with China and don’t fall into China’s trap. Taiwan added that China’s only purpose to build ties with Honduras is to squeeze Taiwan’s international space and that China has no intention of fostering the well-being of the Honduran people.
US Congressional delegation is to visit Taiwan from March 15th-16th and will meet with senior Taiwan leaders to discuss US-Taiwan relations, regional security, trade and investment, and other significant issues of mutual interest, according to the American Institute in Taiwan.
“Joint naval manoeuvers between Iran, China and Russia will begin in the northern Indian Ocean, starting today”, via Sky News Arabia.
US Event Calendar
07:00: March MBA Mortgage Applications +6.5, prior +7.4%
08:30: Feb. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%
08:30: Feb. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 5.4%, prior 6.0%
08:30: Feb. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.7%
08:30: Feb. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.2%, prior 5.4%
08:30: Feb. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.4%, prior 3.0%
08:30: Feb. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 2.3%
08:30: Feb. Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. -0.2%, prior 2.6%
08:30: Feb. Retail Sales Control Group, est. -0.2%, prior 1.7%
08:30: March Empire Manufacturing, est. -7.9, prior -5.8
10:00: Jan. Business Inventories, est. 0%, prior 0.3%
10:00: March NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 40, prior 42
16:00: Jan. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $28.6b
16:00: Jan. Net Foreign Security Purchases, prior $152.8b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap (his note alas is stale as it hit before the Credit Suisse news)
After three sessions of massive turbulence, the last 24 hours has seen market volatility begin to stabilise for the first time since the SVB crisis began.The bank run story seems to have run out of the requisite oxygen to continue the trends from Monday, however.The evidence from yesterday was that the back stopping of US bank depositors has started to starve the immediate crisis of oxygen. More medium term, we should probably still view this whole episode as evidence that the tightening cycle is having an impact with the usual lag and that events are unlikely to stop here. See our “Waiting for the Lag” chart book from last month here for why we thought the negative impact from the global hiking cycle was likely only just starting for the real economy.
However for now crisis conditions are reversing. This is evident across the board, with equities (including bank stocks) seeing a major recovery, and sovereign bond yields paring back a good chunk of their declines over recent days. Furthermore, investors are rowing back on their predictions of an imminent pause in rate hikes, not least after the US CPI print offered a fresh reminder about high inflation. Obviously we’re still a long way from the pre-SVB state of affairs that prevailed last Wednesday, but with worries about bank contagion starting to subside, we’re finally seeing some optimism return to financial markets again.
When it comes to the latest on SVB, there weren’t really any new developments yesterday of note. But in many respects that was the best news possible. Through the first half of the US trading session beleaguered regional banks such as First Republic and Western Alliance were up nearly 50% on the day, before a midday slide saw the rallies cut in half. However, the relative calm newsflow did spur a major bounceback overall, with First Republic (+26.98%) and Western Alliance Bancorp (+14.36%) still up significantly on the day while still well beneath their levels at the start of the week when the deposit backstop was known about. The KBW index finished (+3.19%), posting its strongest day in 4 months, whilst Europe’s STOXX Banks (+3.01%) saw its best performance in 5 months. That supported a solid performance for the major indices, with the S&P 500 (+1.68%) recovering thanks to large advances among the more cyclical sectors. The relief rally saw 84% of the S&P 500 constituents climb yesterday, while 87% of the STOXX 600 was higher as the European index gained +1.59%.
Whilst some of the most-affected stocks were bouncing back yesterday, we saw a similar reversal in the path of short-dated government bond yields. For instance, both the 2yr Treasury yield (+27.4bps) and the 2yr German yield (+20.2bps) posted their biggest daily advances since June 13 2022 and Dec 15 2022 respectively. Prior to a handful of times over the last year, 2yr rates in either country had not moved that much since March 2011 and before that the Global Financial Crisis. 2yr rates were inline to move as much as those periods intraday before rallying in the second half of the US trading session. Longer-dated yields also saw sizeable gains, with those on 10yr Treasuries (+11.6bps), bunds (+16.1bps), and gilts (+11.8bps) all rising. In Asia this morning, the 2Yr Treasury yield (+5.5bps) is edging higher again but 10yr yields are -2bps lower and this helping the inversion trade again.
Those higher yields yesterday were driven by growing doubts that central banks were about to pause their rate hikes, contrary to the speculation on Monday. Of course, that shift was largely driven by the stabilisation in markets, but the latest US CPI print for February added further weight to the arguments to keep hiking. That showed core CPI growing at its fastest pace in 5 months, and in the absence of the SVB crisis it could well have been a report that put the Fed on track to hike by 50bps next week. In terms of the main takeaways, headline CPI was a bit weaker on the month at +0.37%, taking the annual rate down to +6.0% as expected. But core CPI was stronger than expected at +0.45% on the month (vs. +0.4% expected). And this isn’t just a blip either, since if you look at the 3-month annualised rate, core CPI is running at +5.2%, which is far too strong for the Fed to be comfortable.
Aside from the robust prints on headline and core, some of the specific details of the CPI report looked even worse. For instance, the trimmed mean that excludes the biggest outliers was still running at +0.63%, which means that inflationary pressures are broad-based and can’t just be blamed on specific factors. There was also bad news from the Atlanta Fed, who break down the numbers into a sticky CPI and a flexible CPI measure. This showed the sticky CPI running at a 5-month high of +0.55%, whereas flexible CPI fell -0.12%, which added to the evidence that this inflation is at risk of becoming persistent.
With that in mind, investors priced in a growing chance that the Fed would in fact proceed with a 25bps hike next week, with the amount priced in for the March meeting up from 14.3bps on Monday to 19.2bps yesterday. That implies a 77% chance that they’ll run with a hike, although we’ve still got a full week until their decision, which is clearly contingent on any other financial stability issues arising. When it comes to the terminal rate, investors’ expectations also bounced higher, with the rate priced for May up +19.7bps on the day to 4.955%. And looking further out to year-end, the rate priced in for December was up by a massive +48.5bps on the day to 4.23%, although that’s less than a third of the -181bps decline over the previous three sessions.
When it comes to central banks, we’ll soon see attention shift over to the ECB’s decision tomorrow. Up to last week, the widespread expectation had been that the ECB would go for another 50bps hike, in line with their own pre-commitment at the last meeting. But with the SVB collapse and growing financial stability concerns, the prospect of more aggressive hikes has been thrown into doubt, with 25bps now seen as in play. In light of this, our own European economists published an update yesterday (link here), in which they write that a 25bps hike on Thursday seems the more likely move than 50bps, which would take the deposit rate up to 2.75%. Nevertheless, their view is that it would take a significant and persistent financial conditions shock to offset the upside risks to price stability. So with the re-acceleration in core inflation recently, they continue to see 3.5-4% as the main landing zone for the terminal rate.
Asian equity markets have rebounded this morning. As I check my screens, risk appetite is being restored across the region with the KOSPI (+1.45%) leading gains followed by the Hang Seng (+1.26%) while the Shanghai Composite (+0.67%) and the CSI (+0.37%) are also gaining ground. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.17%) is trading higher, paring some of its earlier larger gains though, led by banks and financials. In overnight trading, US stock futures are little changed with those on the S&P 500 (+0.09%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.08%) just above flat.
We have early morning data from China with retail sales in the first two months of 2023 rising +3.5% y/y in February (in line with market expectations) as Beijing abandoned its strict zero-Covid policy. The data was much better than the -1.8% contraction in December. Additionally, Fixed-asset investment showed a better than expected improvement, rising +5.5% YTD in February (v/s +4.5% expected) after +5.1% growth in December. Meanwhile, industrial production for the Jan-Feb period increased by +2.4% y/y, faster than a +1.3% gain in December but still a little softer than the +2.6% growth expected.
Looking forward, one of today’s main highlights will be the UK government’s Spring Budget, which Chancellor Hunt will be unveiling in the House of Commons around 12:30. All being well, it should be the first fiscal event in a while taking place under normal circumstances. The last one was the Autumn Statement in November, where Hunt announced £55bn of fiscal tightening to regain market credibility. And that statement came in response to September’s mini-budget, which unveiled the biggest package of tax cuts in half a century but triggered market turmoil. In terms of what to expect today, our UK economist writes in his preview (link here) that this should be a “no frills” budget, not least because of the fiscal surprises that took place last year. This means that policy announcements will be kept to a minimum, although there will be a focus on keeping energy costs low, boosting public sector pay, and lifting some public spending. In turn, this could set up a more generous Autumn Statement later in the year, particularly as the government moves closer to the general election required by January 2025.
Ahead of that, the latest UK labour market data showed that the unemployment rate remained at 3.7% over the three months ending January (vs. 3.8% expected), and the number of payrolled employees in February was up +98k (vs. +65k expected). In the meantime, there were signs of slowing wage growth, with regular pay growth (excluding bonuses) down to +6.5% across the three months to January relative to the previous year (vs. +6.6% expected).
To the day ahead now, and in the UK the government will deliver their Budget announcement. Otherwise, data releases from the US include February’s PPI and retail sales, along with the NAHB housing market index for March and the Empire State manufacturing survey for March. In the Euro Area, we’ll also get January’s industrial production data. Finally, earnings releases include Adobe.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Banking concerns exacerbated amid focus on Credit Suisse, sparking pronounced FTQ – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 06:57 AM
Equities are under marked pressure as sentiment sees a significant deterioration as Banking names slump, SX7P -5%, amid renewed focus on Credit Suisse, -18%.
Saudi National Bank said they will not provide more assistance to Credit Suisse; Saudi National Bank is the largest shareholder with a 9.9% stake.
An update which has added to banking concerns globally and particularly within Europe, sparking a marked deterioration in sentiment and flight-to-quality.
DXY has experienced a marked turnaround above 104.00, with JPY benefiting on haven-allure; core debt rampant, Bunds +200 ticks.
Focus on geopolitics amid the US drone collision and separately China telling its military to deepen war preparedness planning.
Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed, PPI & Retail Sales, UK Spring Budget.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
SVB/BANKS
EUROPE
Saudi National Bank head said will absolutely not provide more assistance to Credit Suisse (CSGN SW); The Saudi National Bank is happy with CS’ transformation plan, does not think it will need extra money, Reuters reports. Saudi National Bank exec. says “I don’t think they will need extra money; if you look at their ratios, they’re fine” and added that “it is a very strong bank”. Saudi National Bank says it cannot give more money to Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) because it cannot go above the 10% stake hold amid regulatory issues.. Reminder, the Saudi National Bank has a 9.9% stake in Credit Suisse.
Credit Suisse halted amid volatility (10:19GMT/06:19EDT) after falling over 18%.
US
Fed’s Bowman (voter) noted the banking system has strong capital and liquidity, while she added that the Fed board is carefully monitoring developments and that the US banking system remains resilient and on a solid foundation.
Fed is to consider tougher rules for mid-sized banks after the recent bank failures, according to WSJ
Senior White House official said the US government is monitoring developments at First Republic and other individual banks carefully after emergency measures were taken on Sunday, while the official added the banking system is in a better position now than if federal action was not taken. Furthermore, the official said they need to monitor carefully if there is a significant outflow of money to larger banks as it is important to see a thriving banking sector with smaller players and banks.
US Senate Banking Committee Chairman Brown (D) said they need stronger capital standards, stronger liquidity standards and stronger stress tests, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that Democrats are to present a bill to end bank deregulation law, according to NBC.
Creditors of SVB’s parent formed a group in anticipation of a potential bankruptcy filing as they hope to profit from a sale of the collapsed firm’s private wealth and other units, according to WSJ.
SVB Financial (SIVB) said Goldman Sachs (GS) had bought its bond portfolio before federal regulators placed SVB into receivership.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) CEO said they have liquidity and are nowhere near a forced selling situation, while he added they have not raised capital and received USD 4bln net new asset inflow on Friday. Furthermore, he said 82% of deposits are insured and the probability seems extremely low for the bank to sell government securities, while it is adding market share and seeing clients move from other firms.
US regulators began soliciting interest for Signature Bank (SBNY) and it was also reported that Signature Bank faced a criminal probe ahead of its collapse, according to Bloomberg.
S&P said First Republic Bank’s (FRC) ‘A-‘ rating has been placed on Credit Watch Negative on funding profile risk and believes its deposit flows have been volatile following the government’s closure of two banks.
Bank of America (BAC) received over USD 15bln in deposits after the SVB failure.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are under marked pressure as sentiment sees a marked deterioration as Banking names slip, SX7P -5.3%, amid renewed focus on Credit Suisse, -18.0%; Euro Stoxx 50 -2.4%.
Sectors are predominantly in the red with Banking names underperforming and more broadly there is a defensive bias emerging, as Healthcare remains the only sector in the green.
Stateside, US futures are directionally in-fitting with the above though magnitudes slightly more contained at present, ES -1.1%.
The DXY has experienced a marked turnaround from initial 103.44 lows, with the index now comfortably above 104.00 amid the latest banking concerns.
Action which has been exacerbated by a marked safe-haven spike in fixed income which has eroded the earlier EUR/USD upside on RTRS ECB sources around 50bp for Thursday; EUR/USD at 1.0667 trough vs 1.0759 peak.
Given the size of the USD move, G10 peers ex-JPY are softer across the board with the CHF leading the downside given the latest focal point for banking sector concern is Credit Suisse; USD/CHF testing 0.92 and EUR/CHF above 0.98.
As mentioned, JPY is the outperformer given its traditional haven allure and is below the 134.00 mark within 133.76-135.11 parameters.
Elsewhere, GBP succumbs to the USD pre-budget while antipodeans and CAD slip as well though the latter is deriving some relative support from comparably resilient crude prices.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8680 vs exp. 6.8650 (prev. 6.8949)
EGBs lead broad and marked debt recovery as banking stocks tank, Bunds fade just shy of 136.00 vs a 133.33 low on ECB sources suggesting a 50bp hike is still favoured on Thursday.
Gilts rebound in slipstream alongside US Treasuries within 104.47-103.12 and 114-15+/113-08+ respective ranges.
WTI and Brent front-month futures are on the backfoot amid the mentioned deterioration in risk sentiment, with the benchmarks trimming initial upside and are now near unchanged on the session.
Specifically, WTI and Brent are at the lower end of USD 71.50-72.56/bbl and USD 77.69-78.73/bbl parameters respectively.
Elengy confirms strikes on three French LNG terminals has been extended until 21st March.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.2mln (exp. +1.2mln), Gasoline -4.6mln (exp. -1.8mln), Distillate -2.9mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing -0.9mln.
Oil output at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz refinery was at 645k BPD on March 10th (vs 563k between March 1-6), according to sources.
IEA OMR (Feb): 2023 global oil demand upgraded 200k BPD to 101.9mln BPD (prev. 101.7mln BPD); oil supply is outstripping lacklustre demand, but market will balance in the middle of the year
China is to lower steel production in order to attain climate goals, according to Bloomberg sources.
Spot gold has managed to glean a haven bid from the latest turn in sentiment, with the yellow metal modestly firmer on the session and above USD 1900/oz compared to the earlier USD 1885/oz low; in contrast, given the tone, base metals are slumping.
ECB is still leaning towards a 50bp rate hike on Thursday, given calming markets, stubborn inflation and credibility concerns, via Reuters citing sources. New projections still show inflation significantly above 2% target in 2023, slightly above in 2025. To raise underlying inflation projections. Piece adds that dovish members felt vindicated by recent market turbulence and were likely to push back against committing to further hikes, instead saying any move would be data dependent.
IFW, on Germany: sees inflation 5.4% in 2023, 2.1% in 2024. GDP at 0.5% (prev. 0.3%) in 2023 and 1.4% (prev. 1.3%) in 2024. Ifo says German inflation is to fall in to 6.2% in 2023, and 2.2% in 2024; sees GDP at -0.1% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024.
Turkey’s Parliament will likely ratify Finland’s NATO accession bid before it closes in mid-April, according to two Turkish officials.
DATA RECAP
Swedish CPIF Ex Energy YY (Feb) 9.3% vs. Exp. 8.7% (Prev. 8.7%); MM (Feb) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.4%)
EU Industrial Production YY (Jan) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -1.7%, Rev. -2.0%); MM (Jan) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -1.1%, Rev. -1.3%)
China tells its military to deepen war preparedness planning, Xinhua reports.
US military confirmed that a Russian fighter jet struck the propeller of a US military Reaper drone, forcing the US to bring it down over the Black Sea.
US summoned the Russian ambassador regarding the downing of the US drone over the Black Sea, while Russia views the drone incident as a provocation, according to RIA citing Russia’s ambassador.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said the top command’s unanimous position is to strengthen Bakhmut’s defence and inflict maximum losses on the enemy, according to Reuters.
Yahoo News said it obtained Russia’s secret document regarding a plan for destabilising Moldova and promoting Russian interests in the country.
Honduras announced it is to establish diplomatic ties with China, while Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it urges Honduras to carefully consider the decision to build ties with China and don’t fall into China’s trap. Taiwan added that China’s only purpose to build ties with Honduras is to squeeze Taiwan’s international space and that China has no intention of fostering the well-being of the Honduran people.
US Congressional delegation is to visit Taiwan from March 15th-16th and will meet with senior Taiwan leaders to discuss US-Taiwan relations, regional security, trade and investment, and other significant issues of mutual interest, according to the American Institute in Taiwan.
“Joint naval manoeuvers between Iran, China and Russia will begin in the northern Indian Ocean, starting today”, via Sky News Arabia.
CRYPTO
Coinbase (COIN) said customers in Singapore can now transfer funds to and from their Coinbase accounts using any bank in Singapore for free, while it added that Singpass has been introduced to make joining the platform easier and it received in-principle approval from the MAS under the Payment Services Act to provide regulated digital payment token services.
Binance CEO says “Given recent events, we are moving 0 fee BTC trading from BUSD to TUSD”, as a liquidity measure.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly positive as they followed suit to the gains in global counterparts after banking contagion fears eased and markets found some relief in the absence of any additional bank failures, although the advances were limited as participants also digested mixed Chinese activity data.
ASX 200 was led higher by strength in tech which took impetus from the outperformance of the sector stateside following Meta’s jobs and cost-cutting plans albeit with gains capped as the energy industry lagged after oil prices recently dipped to a fresh YTD low.
Nikkei 225 initially climbed as banking stocks atoned for the recent turmoil although price action in Japan was choppy and the index eventually gave back all of its early gains heading into the conclusion of the spring wage negotiations while there are talks of solid wage increases among the large companies.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded higher with the outperformance in Hong Kong driven by strength in tech and developers, while sentiment in the mainland is underpinned after the PBoC injected funds via its 1-year MLF and 7-day reverse repos but with upside capped following mixed industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed asset investment data releases.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC announced to lend CNY 481bln through 1-year MLF vs. CNY 200bln maturing with the rate kept unchanged at 2.75% and injected CNY 104bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00%.
PBoC said it will step up financing support for private small firms and will support reasonable bond financing needs of private companies, according to Reuters.
China’s FX regulator said it will prevent external shocks and risks, as well as deepen reforms and the opening up of the forex sector. It will continue pushing forward facilitating cross-border trade and financing, while it will guarantee the safety, liquidity and value of FX reserve assets, according to Reuters.
China stats bureau said economic operations showed a stabilising and recovery although the foundation of the economic recovery is not solid yet and that China’s economy still faces difficulties this year including global risks. Furthermore, it said China faces pressure and challenges in achieving the 2023 growth target but added that consumption will show a significant recovery this year and that China will continue to take measures to boost consumption.
BoJ Governor Kuroda said the BoJ must maintain current monetary easing but there will also likely be scope to consider steps to address the side-effects of easy policy, while he added the BoJ will surely head for an exit from easy policy and has the ability to do so when the inflation target is sustainably and stably met.
BoJ Minutes from the January meeting stated that members agreed Japan’s economy is expected to recover and inflation is likely to slow towards the latter half of next fiscal year, while it reiterated the importance of current monetary easing policy and many members said more time was needed to gauge the impact of BoJ steps on market function.
Japan’s Ruling Party proposes a JPY 30k cash handout to low-income households, with an additional JPY 50k per child, via Kyodo citing a senior official; Japan PM Kishida says the government is to mobilise all measures available to prepare the environment for wage hikes, to increase minimum wages beyond JPY 1k nationwide.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Industrial Production YTD YY (Feb) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 1.3%); Retail Sales YTD YY (Feb) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. -1.8%)
Chinese Urban Investment (YTD) YY (Feb) 5.5% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 5.1%)
Chinese Unemployment Rate (Feb) 5.6% (Prev. 5.5%)
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.86 PTS OR 0.55% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 291.91 PTS OR % 1.52 /The Nikkei closed UP 7.44% PTS OR 0.03% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.86% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.9075//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9064// /Oil DOWN TO 70.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 76.43 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
END
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3c CHINA /
CHINA///
end
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
ITALY/RUSSIA
Italy is now blaming Russia’s Wagner group for facilitating a surge in migration from Africa and also accusing them of hybrid warfare
(Thomas Brooke/RemixNews)
Italy Blames Russia For Surge In Migration, Accuses Wagner Group Of “Hybrid Warfare”
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto accused the Russian mercenary Wagner Group of facilitating the increase in migration reported this year from Africa to Europe…
Russian mercenaries are responsible for a surge in illegal immigration into Europe and are engaging in “hybrid warfare” against countries supporting Ukraine in the ongoing conflict, Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto has claimed.
Speaking on Monday, the Italian minister claimed the Russian Wagner Group, which operates in several African countries and holds considerable political influence, has been facilitating an increase in illegal immigration across the Mediterranean into Italy.
“I think it is now safe to say that the exponential increase in the migratory phenomenon departing from African shores is also, to a not insignificant extent, part of a clear strategy of hybrid warfare that the Wagner division is implementing, using its considerable weight in some African countries,” Crosetto said.
Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)
“Just as the EU, NATO, and the West have realized that cyberattacks were part of the global confrontation that the war in Ukraine opened up, they should now understand that the southern European front is also becoming more dangerous every day,” he added.
However, Italy has long dealt with mass migration from Africa and Middle Eastern countries, and the minister presented no evidence that Wagner was behind any operation to increase migration to Europe. Europe, however, has faced a migrant crisis partially facilitated by Russia and Belarus in countries like Poland and Baltic nations over the last couple of years.
Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told Italian news agency ANSA that many migrants are now originating from areas “controlled by the Wagner group.”
Europe’s border agency, Frontex, reported that in the first two months of 2023, the top countries of origin were Ivory Coast, Guinea, and Pakistan — all countries where Wagner has no presence.
The accusation is firmly denied by the mercenary group whose leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said via the Telegram messaging app: “We have no idea what is happening with regard to the migrant crisis, but we are not dealing with it,” before calling Crosetto a “mudak,” a Russian derogatory term akin to “idiot” or “moron.”
As Remix News reported on Monday, migrant crossings across the Mediterranean have more than doubled in the first two months of 2023, with Frontex data revealing a total of 11,951 crossings detected in January and February, up 118 percent over the same period last year.
Italian government figures revealed more than 20,000 people have now reached Italy so far this year, suggesting a significant increase in the past two weeks in migrant activity.
The surge in immigration prompted the Italian government last week to announce tougher new laws on people smugglers, who could now see themselves jailed for up to 30 years for facilitating illegal immigration into Italy.
END
SWITZERLAND/CREDIT SUISSE
Credit Suisse stock is down another 25% along with a surge in CDS.
Stocks Soar After Swiss Authorities Hold “Stabilizing” Talks With Credit Suisse, To Make Statement Shortly
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 02:46 PM
Summary:
Saudis fold – refuse to throw any more money at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse stock hits record low
Credit Suisse 1Y CDS explodes as counterparty risk hedging soars
Credit Suisse execs urged a “show of confidence” from the Swiss National Bank
ECB quantifying exposures to Credit Suisse
US Treasury monitoring situation, talking with other regulators
Fed working with UST to quantify exposures
One major govt is pressuring Swiss to intervene
Systemic risk threat spreads globally
Swiss authorities seeking to stabilize bank
* * *
Update (1430ET): Rather unsurprisingly, given its SIFI nature and the external pressure already reported, Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, that Swiss authorities and Credit Suisse Group AG are discussing ways to stabilize the bank
The firm’s leaders and government officials have reportedly talked about options that range from a public statement of support to a potential liquidity backstop.
Also among ideas floated include a separation of the bank’s Swiss unit and a long-shot orchestrated tie-up with larger Swiss rival UBS.
A statement from Finma or the Swiss central bank could be coming soon.
Of course, US equities soared on the news – not having a clue what the statement will say…
* * *
Update (1330ET): With European markets closed, the chaos continues in CS with Reuters reporting that according to a source familiar with the situation, Switzerland is facing pressure from at least one major government to intervene on Credit Suisse in the coming hours given the systemic nature of the bank
It doesn’t take too much imagination to see Macron screaming down the phone as the biggest French banks crashed most today.
Additionally, The Fed is reportedly working with the US Treasury to review Credit Suisse exposures.
end
THE STATEMENT: ONE HR LATER
Swiss National Bank Issues Statement: “Will Provide Liquidity If Necessary”
Summary:
Saudis fold – refuse to throw any more money at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse stock hits record low
Credit Suisse 1Y CDS explodes as counterparty risk hedging soars
Credit Suisse execs urged a “show of confidence” from the Swiss National Bank
ECB quantifying exposures to Credit Suisse
US Treasury monitoring situation, talking with other regulators
Fed working with UST to quantify exposures
One major govt is pressuring Swiss to intervene
Systemic risk threat spreads globally
Swiss authorities seeking to stabilize bank
Swiss National Bank and Finma issue statement of support
THE STATEMENT
The Swiss National Bank and the country’s regulator said Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks and that the SNB will provide the bank with liquidity if necessary, in a statement.
Full Statement:
The Swiss National Bank SNB and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA assert that the problems of certain banks in the USA do not pose a direct risk of contagion for the Swiss financial markets. The strict capital and liquidity requirements applicable to Swiss financial institutions ensure their stability. Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks. If necessary, the SNB will provide CS with liquidity.
The SNB and FINMA are pointing out in this joint statement that there are no indications of a direct risk of contagion for Swiss institutions due to the current turmoil in the US banking market.
Regulation in Switzerland requires all banks to maintain capital and liquidity buffers that meet or exceed the minimum requirements of the Basel standards. Furthermore, systemically important banks have to meet higher capital and liquidity requirements. This allows negative effects of major crises and shocks to be absorbed.
Credit Suisse’s stock exchange value and the value of its debt securities have been particularly affected by market reactions in recent days. FINMA is in very close contact with the bank and has access to all information relevant to supervisory law. Against this background, FINMA confirms that Credit Suisse meets the higher capital and liquidity requirements applicable to systemically important banks. In addition, the SNB will provide liquidity to the globally active bank if necessary. FINMA and the SNB are following developments very closely and are in close contact with the Federal Department of Finance to ensure financial stability.
TRADING AFTER ANNOUNCEMENT: A NOTHINGBURGER.
Notably, Credit Suisse ADRs still trading in the US showed no exuberance on this statement….
Update (1130ET): Earlier in the day, while speaking at the Financial Sector Conference in Saudi Arabia, Credit Suisse Group AG Chairman Axel Lehmann said government assistance “isn’t a topic” for the lender as the Swiss bank sought to shore up confidence among shareholders and clients.
This may come as a surprise to some, but the Chairman may have ‘misplaced’ the truth.
Credit Suisse also asked for a similar response from Finma, the Swiss regulator.
“It is looking inevitable that the Swiss National Bank will have to intervene and provide a lifeline,” said Octavio Marenzi, analyst at Opimas.
“The [Swiss National Bank] and the Swiss government are fully aware that the failure of Credit Suisse or even any losses by deposit holders would destroy Switzerland’s reputation as a financial centre.”
This latest news comes on top of a report that the ECB has asked EU lenders to disclose their exposures to the Swiss lender, a person familiar with the matter told the Financial Times.
* * *
Update (1000ET): Worsening sentiment got even worserer after The Wall Street Journal reports, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter, ECB officials contacted lenders it supervises Wednesday to ask about financial exposures to Credit Suisse AG.
“If regulators do not handle the Credit Suisse situation well, this will send shockwaves through the whole sector,” said Joost Beaumont, head of bank research at Dutch lender ABN Amro.
“To make matter worse, both sides of the Atlantic have banking issues.”
* * *
Update (0800ET): Aside from global derisking, anxiety over Credit Suisse has sparked a huge dovish response in Fed expectations with the odds of a 50bps hike tomorrow at The ECB tumbling…
The entire curve expectations for ECB action has collapsed with the market now pricing in only 75bps of hikes by year-end…
And even more notably, Fed hike expectations have plunged with next week only a coin-toss between 0 and 25bps, and Sept pricing in 60bps of cuts…
With the terminal rate falling and coming sooner – May and done…
Pricing in a total panic by The Fed – with expectations of over 100bps of rate-cuts by year-end…
* * *
As we detailed earlier, Credit Suisse Group AG’s shares reached their lowest point ever, dropping by as much as 10%. This is the eighth consecutive session of decline, which comes in the wake of restructuring issues, delays in submitting its annual report due to ‘material weakness’ flagged by the SEC last week, and a broader industry selloff following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. In addition to these challenges, the troubled Swiss bank now faces a new problem: its top shareholder has said they will not invest any further due to the sharp decline in valuations.
“The answer is absolutely not, for many reasons outside the simplest reason, which is regulatory and statutory,” Saudi National Bank Chairman Ammar Al Khudairy told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Wednesday.
That was in response to a question about whether Credit Suisse would receive fresh injections if another liquidity crisis emerged.
Saudi National Bank, which is 37% owned by the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, is Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder as of late 2022 after acquiring a 9.9% stake. Al Khudairy said there are no plans at the moment to take the stake over the 10% threshold because of regulatory hurdles. In the last several months, since the bank’s equity has been on a waterfall lower, the Saudis have lost more than 500 million francs on their position.
The news the Saudis are perhaps done supporting the troubled Swiss bank sent shares down as much as 25% to a new record low in Zurich.
Putting that new record low in context… down over 98% from the 2000 highs. The red area is post-Greensill debacle…
Bear in mind that CD remains a SIFI, prompting systemic risk fears and has led to the cost of insuring the bank’s bonds against default in the near term to distressed levels.
“One-year credit default swaps for the embattled Swiss lender were indicated at 835.9 basis points on Tuesday’s close of business, based on pricing source CMAQ. Other pricing sources point to a further rise on Wednesday, while a level of 1,000 would indicate serious concern,” Bloomberg said.
Five-year credit default swaps have widened the most ever — indicating the restructuring of the bank and the hope to bring it back to profitability might be unattainable at the moment as a banking crisis triggered by SVB sparks contagion.
Also today, Credit Suisse Chairman Axel Lehmann stated the bank isn’t considering government aid and that it would be inaccurate to draw parallels between its current difficulties and the collapse of SVB.
“We have strong capital ratios, a strong balance sheet,” Lehmann said.
“We already took the medicine,” he said, referring to the restructuring program announced in late 2022.
Barclays told clients this morning that the outlook for European banks remains uncertain in the short term, citing “too-difficult-to-predict” risks and the restrictive pathway of monetary policy.
The anxiety over Credit is spreading globally, and is certainly not ring-fenced as the entire European banking sector (stock and credit) is cratering…
European banks are legging down on this news.
EU banking credit risk surging.
Yields on the Geman two-year slide.
And European short-term rates markets are pricing out a 50bps hike by The ECB next week…
Prompting derisking everywhere as flight-to-safety flows see the 10 Year yield in the US tumble to 3.53%.
US main equity futs also catch a leg lower.
Crude oil crashes….
…to 15 month lows…
And gold outshines everything as contagion risks surge.
It is possible that the regional banking crisis is not yet resolved and may even be spreading across the Atlantic.
end
“Too Big To Fail” Credit Suisse Domino Effect Far More Potent Than SVB
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 12:00 PM
By Ven Ram, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist
Should the markets’ worst fears on Credit Suisse come true, the euro-area economy will fall off a cliff, upend the global financial system and bring policy tightening by major central banks to a screaming halt.
Unlike Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the Swiss lender is classified as systemically important by the US Financial Stability Board — meaning it’s too big to fail as a collapse has the potential to trigger a financial crisis.
European Central Bank officials contacted lenders Wednesday to ask about their financial exposure to Credit Suisse, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Credit Suisse reported that its assets under management were almost 1.3 trillion Swiss francs, or the equivalent of $1.4 trillion, as recently as last month. For perspective, that would amount to almost 10% of the 14.5 trillion euro-area economy
The cost of insuring Credit Suisse’s debt against default for one year jumped to a record 2728 basis points on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the company’s shares tumbled to a record and its bonds plunged to levels typically associated with distress.
The latest leg lower was spurred by comments from Saudi National Bank — Credit Suisse’s top shareholder — that it had no intention of investing more into the Swiss lender, which is in the midst of a complex three-year restructuring in a bid to return to profitability.
Over in the US, a swift response from policymakers including the Federal Reserve staved off a crisis that loomed over the financial landscape following the failure of SVB. The California-based lender collapsed after a loss of depositor confidence compelled the bank to sell assets that had lost value amid the Fed’s tightening.
The Fed lost little time before unveiling a term-funding program that essentially allowed US banks — presumably those that may be in a predicament similar to SVB amid the increase in interest rates — to borrow against bonds that may have lost value at 100 cents on the dollar. That quick backstop helped assuage some of the worst fears of depositors and investors.
It’s not exactly clear how the plot will play out in Europe, with UBS Group AG chief executive officer Ralph Hamers commenting that he won’t answer “hypothetical questions” about its struggling Swiss rival and that UBS is “focused on our own strategy.”
Credit Suisse’s Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner earlier this week pleaded for patience, citing its CET1 capital ratio of 14.1% in the fourth quarter and a liquidity coverage ratio of 144% that has since increased to about 150% on average Still, that patience may be in short supply in the global financial markets, with investors showing increased sensitivity to any perception of additional risk.
For policymakers in Europe and the US, though, what is at stake here is an entity that has a far greater domino effect in its ability to damage sentiment than Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank combined.
end
5.UKRAINE// RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
UKRAINE//RUSSIA/USA/
Putin: complete nonsense that anyone other than a state actor is behind the pipeline explosions
(zerohedge)
Putin: “Complete Nonsense” That Anyone Other Than State Actor Behind Pipeline Explosions
TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 06:50 PM
“I am certain that this is complete nonsense,” President Vladimir Putin said in fresh statements to Russian media on Tuesday, making rare detailed remarks concerning the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. He was referencing the latest narrative out of the West which claims a mysterious “pro-Ukrainian group” was behind the pipeline bombings.
Last Tuesday The New York Timespublished a story making the claim, and quickly an avalanche of follow-up stories have appeared across Western media asserting a similar narrative. Putin says that these stories are intended to run cover in order to hide a “state” actor. He stressed that only specialists backed by a government which possesses “certain technologies” could be capable of such a complex, deep underwater operation.Illustrative, EPA via Shutterstock
Putin’s full statement given while on a visit to an aircraft plant in Russia’s Buryatia republic region is as follows, per state media translation: “I’m sure this is complete nonsense. An explosion of this kind – of such power, at such depth, can only be carried out by specialists, and supported by the entire power of a state, possessing certain technologies.”
The Western media narrative of a rogue “pro-Ukrainian” unit being behind the sabotage op began emerging almost a month after Pulitzer Prize winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published his bombshell report which said President Biden ordered the attack on the natural gas pipelines. It detailed the CIA’s role in conjunction with an elite US Navy deep sea diving team as well, and with the help of Norwegian intelligence.
Putin in his new remarks also pointed the finger at the United States, but stopped short of a direct accusation. According to a translated summary of his words in Sputnik:
He also suggested that one should probably consider who would be interested in the destruction of Nord Stream, noting that, theoretically, the United States could have been one such entity as such act of sabotage would help them cut the flow of Russian gas to the European market so that the US could supply greater amount of its own, much more expensive liquefied natural gas there.
The Russian president added that, while repairing the damaged Nord Stream pipelines would be no mean feat, it probably could be done, though such undertaking would require time, money and new technologies.
The Russian leader also weighed on on the possibility of a repair and the question of future operability:
He noted, however, that the Nord Stream project would have a future only if Russia’s European partners were to remember about their own national interest, as it would seem that, currently, they are doing whatever it is they are told “from across the ocean.”
Following Hersh’s report, US officials and establishment media sought to portray the famed reporter as a ‘conspiracy theorist’ who is far past the prime of his career. This despite Hersh’s track record of blockbuster investigative journalism and his breaking major stories spanning decades speaking. It remains that he’s among the most celebrated journalists in American history who was proven right time and again.
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Russia Says Bombs Found At A Druzhba Pipeline Station In Latest Sabotage Attempt
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 03:19 PM
Officials with the Russian oil company Transneft say they’ve uncovered a failed bomb plot to sabotage the Druzhba oil pipeline and maim civilians in the western Bryansk region of Russia.
Transneft spokesman Igor Demin told TASS on Wednesday that two explosive devices were found at a pumping station. The devices, while they didn’t detonate, had some degree of damage due to the likelihood they were dropped from drones, he explained.
“The character of the explosive parts — metal balls — indicates that the organizers of this sabotage did not intend to damage equipment, but rather to kill people, namely civilian workers at a pumping station on the Druzhba [pipeline]. Investigations are underway,” Demin said.
The station in question, identified in Bloomberg as the Novozybkov station, “hasn’t been used for oil pumping so far this year; its reservoirs are empty,” according to reports. Demin noted that no part of the station was damaged.
The Russian Defense Ministry didn’t immediately comment on Transneft’s statements, but the Kremlin has of late ratcheted its accusations that Ukrainian saboteurs are engaging in cross-border attacks. President Putin has recently ordered his federal security services (FSB) to tighten border security after a string of brazen cross-border incidents.
This year has also seen an unprecedented number of drone incursions over Russian territory, and Moscow has gone so far as to allege Western state backing of such operations.
END
US, Russian Military Chiefs Hold Emergency Deconfliction Call For 1st Time In Months
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 03:59 PM
Update(1559ET): Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed in an afternoon press briefing that he spoke with his Russian counterpart Defense Secretary Sergei Shoigu – in the first such phone call since October – about Tuesday’s drone incident over the Black Sea.
“I just got off the phone with my Russian counterpart, Minister Shoigu,” Austin said of efforts at deconfliction, as both sides seek to underscore they’re not looking for a fight. “As I’ve said repeatedly, it’s important that great powers be models of transparency and communication, and the United States will continue to fly and to operate wherever international law allows.”
But the Kremlin has said it has restricted some additional airspace over the Black Sea while conducting its ‘special operation’ in Ukraine. Thus the stage is set for possibly another dangerous intercept encounter such as this one which resulted in the crashing of a MQ-9 Reaper drone. Both sides have said they are seeking to recover the wreckage, but it reportedly crashed in a part of the sea that’s very deep, making recovery unlikely.
Austin had also repeated the Biden administration talking point that it’s President Zelensky alone who is ultimately making the decisions on execution of the war to push the Russians out. The number of times this has been repeated of late is getting awkward…
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday it’s unclear if the US military will be able to recover the wreckage of the crashed MQ-9 Reaper drone in the Black Sea as it fell in “very deep water”.
But Moscow is now saying its navy will attempt to retrieve the wreckage first, and so the race is on – as AFP has emphasized. “Moscow said Wednesday it would try to retrieve the wreckage of a U.S. military drone that crashed over the Black Sea in a confrontation that Washington blamed on two Russian fighter jets,” the report says based on Kremlin statements. Brief video purporting to show the intercept incident has also emerged via a well-known Russian military Telegram channel and is being widely circulated:
Russian Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev made televised remarks on Tuesday’s drone crash, saying Wednesday, “I don’t know whether we’ll be able to retrieve it or not but it has to be done. And we will certainly work on it.”
Russia is further warning against future “hostile” US flights in its own backyard, while the Pentagon is vowing it will continue to operate in international airspace, which includes the Black Sea.
Both sides are leveling accusations of trying to draw the other into direct conflict, in what marks a dangerous escalation in rhetoric based on the very real drone encounter and close-call, given the pair of Russian jets had stopped just short of shooting down the MQ-9, which Washington would have seen as a direct act of war:
Patrushev said the incident was further proof that the United States is a direct party to fighting between Moscow and Kyiv and said Russia had a responsibility to “defend our independence and our sovereignty.”
Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had scrambled jets after detecting a U.S. drone over the Black Sea and denied causing the crash.
Even as the Kremlin says it’s deploying assets to recover the drone, the Pentagon vows that it’s working to prevent that:
Russia said the aircraft had lost control but White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. “obviously” refuted the denial.
He added the United States was trying to prevent the fallen drone from getting into the wrong hands. “We’ve taken steps to protect our equities with respect to that particular drone — that particular aircraft,” Kirby told CNN.
So now we’re witnessing rival superpowers deploying assets in the Black Sea not far from the fighting in Ukraine in a race to recover the advanced Reaper drone. If Moscow does recover it first, it’s likely to prove a humiliation for the US, also as Russia will no doubt try to reverse-engineer and study the UAV – which designed and manufactured by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems.
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
CDC, FDA Respond To Florida Surgeon General’s COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Alert
Drs. Rochelle Walensky and Robert Califf claimed in the response that Dr. Joseph Ladapo, the surgeon general, was misleading the public by focusing on the increase in adverse events reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).
“The claim that the increase of VAERS reports of life-threatening conditions reported from Florida and elsewhere represents an increase of risk caused by the COVID-19 vaccines is incorrect, misleading, and could be harmful to the American public,” Walensky and Califf said in the missive.
Walensky heads the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Califf heads of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The CDC and FDA co-manage VAERS, which accepts reports from anybody but which is primarily used by healthcare workers.
The COVID-19 vaccines were given emergency authorization in late 2020. Under the emergency authorizations, vaccine companies and healthcare workers are required to report certain adverse events through VAERS, “so more reports should be expected,” Walensky and Califf said.
“Most reports do not represent adverse events caused by the vaccine and instead represent a preexisting condition that preceded vaccination or an underlying medical condition that precipitated the event,” they said.
They did not cite any studies or other research to support the claim.
While anyone can lodge reports with the system, authorities request medical records and other documentation in an effort to verify reports of certain events. Out of 1,826 reports of heart inflammation after Pfizer or Moderna vaccination in adults through May 26, 2022, for instance, the CDC verified 72 percent.
The CDC also identified hundreds of safety signals for the Moderna and Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines through analyzing VAERS data in 2022, according to records obtained by The Epoch Times. A safety signal is a possible sign of a side effect. Only a handful of adverse events are definitely caused by the vaccines, according to the CDC, including myocarditis, or heart inflammation, and severe allergic shock.
Ladapo said in February that in Florida, the number of reports to VAERS after the COVID-19 vaccines were authorized spiked by 1,700 percent, while the increase in vaccine administration rose by just 400 percent.
“We have never seen this type of response following previous mass vaccination efforts pushed by the federal government,” Ladapo said in a letter to Walensky and Califf.
“These findings are unlikely to be related to changes in reporting given their magnitude, and more likely reflect a pattern of increased risk from mRNA COVID-19 vaccines,” he added, calling for “unbiased research … to better understand these vaccines’ short- and long-term effects.” The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines both use messenger RNA (mRNA) technology.
Florida officials pointed to a study that found in the original clinical trials that the vaccinated were more at risk of serious adverse events, as well as otherpapers that found an increased risk of adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination.
Florida currently recommends against COVID-19 vaccination for young, healthy males who have been shown to be at the highest risk of myocarditis. Vaccinating the population “doesn’t make any sense” from a risk-benefit standpoint, Ladapo, appointed by Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, told The Epoch Times. The heart inflammation causes serious problems and can even lead to death in some cases.
A new Wuhan scandal: USA agencies double paid the virus research costs
(zerohedge)
New Wuhan Scandal: US Agencies Double-Paid Virus Research Costs
TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 08:50 PM
The US government may have made tens of millions of dollars in duplicate payments for virus research at the Wuhan Institute for Virology, according to a review of government records by a former federal investigator, CBS News reports.
“What I’ve found so far is evidence that points to double billing, potential theft of government funds. It is concerning, especially since it involves dangerous pathogens and risky research,” said Diane Cutler, whose services were engaged by Kansas Republican Senator Roger Marshall.
Cutler has more than 20 years of experience investigating healthcare fraud and white-collar crime, an her conclusions spring from her review of over 50,000 documents relating to US grants that financed coronavirus research in China. The Wuhan Institute of Virology (Roman Pilipey/EPA via The Guardian)
The apparent double-payments, made via the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and US Agency for International Development (USAID), related to a variety of claimed costs, including salaries, travel, medical supplies and equipment.
Anonymous sources told CBS the damage may amount to tens of millions of dollars. Marshall has turned over Cutler’s findings to USAID and the agency’s internal watchdog, which has launched an investigation of its own. It could take six months or more.
On Feb. 28, FBI Director Christopher Wray said the bureau had long ago concluded the Covid-19 pandemic was most likely the result of a leak from a Chinese lab. Days earlier, it was reported that the Department of Energy had — in 2020 — reached its own determination that a lab leak was most likely.
This month, former NIH National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci was accused of prompting a cadre of scientists to publish a paper disproving the lab-leak theory — just days after scientists warned Fauci, in February 2020, that Covid-19 may have indeed leaked from a lab.
Two authors of that same paper — who initially expressed concerns over a lab-leak but then changed their tune — went on to receive millions in NIH grants under Fauci.
Fauci earned at least $480,654 a year in his NIH-NIAID role, making him the highest-paid employee in the federal government. Now, the increasingly disgraced graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, Massachusetts is raking in a pension estimated at $414,000 — more than the US presidential salary.
END
This is good! We will get these criminals
(Stieber/EpochTimes)
Judge Rejects Request From Moderna, Moving Key COVID-19 Vaccine Case To Discovery
Moderna and the U.S. government, which backed the company, failed to prove that claims involving the company’s COVID-19 vaccine contract with the government should be dismissed, U.S. District Judge Mitchell Goldberg ruled on March 10.
Goldberg in late 2022 rejected a similar effort but Moderna revived its bid after the government filed a statement asserting it, not the company, should face the claims relating to the contract.
The parties, though, have failed to prove that the government’s interpretation “trumps a court’s analysis of this issue,” Goldberg said.
Moderna and the government had argued that under 28 U.S.C. 1498, the claims should be dismissed and moved to the Court of Federal Claims. That would mean the government was inserted as the defendant, replacing Moderna, and leave the government responsible for paying any damages awarded.
The law in question states that any infringement claims relating to inventions being used “by or for the government” and with “the authorization and consent of the government” must be handled in the Court of Federal Claims.
The 2020 vaccine contract between Moderna and the U.S. Army stated that it was “for the United States government … and the U.S. population.”
While Moderna and the government said that evidence supported the contract being “by or for the government,” Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences said the dispute “can only be resolved on a fully developed record” and urged the court to allow discovery.
Goldberg, a George W. Bush appointee, agreed.
“I will consider the [Section] 1498(a) issue after both parties have engaged in discovery, which will provide Plaintiff an opportunity to review the entire unredacted version of the ’-0100 Contract and discover facts regarding that Contract,” he said.
New Developments Highlight Need for Discovery
New developments in the case highlight the need for discovery, the judge said.
The original contract, or the ’-0100 Contract, was for the government, both Moderna and U.S. officials say. But the parties have also acknowledged that a second contract, reached in 2022 and known as the ’-0017 contract, doesn’t fall under the law because it lacks certain language.
The position on the second contract wasn’t known when the judge ruled in 2022 on the motion to dismiss.
“Had I granted the relief Moderna sought in its original motion to dismiss, this fact would not have come to light and the relief ordered could have been incorrect,” the judge said.
Many of the tyrants who promoted the COVID madness have been begging for amnesty for some time, and we should only expect that their numbers will grow as more evidence surfaces.
But we should make no mistake — there needs to be a reckoning in the West when it comes to COVID.
I used to wonder as a child how extreme fanaticism, such as Nazism, could gain footing among any educated population. I am now convinced that the internationally coordinated propaganda campaign around COVID that we all recently witnessed for nearly three years makes the Nazis look like amateurs.
Please don’t take this as a typical “this thing I don’t like is Nazism” kind of comparison, but rather, think honestly about this for a moment. It took decades of propaganda to inflame the German people’s hatred of European Jews such that they’d become second-class citizens unworthy of the simplest of rights, such as dining in a public restaurant, and eventually unworthy of even receiving medical care.
In a matter of only two years in the supposedly free West, we had mass swathes of people (or, at least the appearance of mass swathes of people on social media) openly wishing hardship and death upon their countrymen that simply chose not to inject a new, frantically concocted, unproven drug into their bodies to offset a risk that was and is, for the vast majority of people, scarcely more dangerous than the common cold or flu. Not only did restaurants refuse service to these people as a matter of policy in places like New York City, but these people were fired from their jobs, and hospitals in some places began openly refusing life-saving services to patients if a particular individual had the audacity to not have goosestepped to the local pharmacy for not eins, but swei doses of the new drug.
As with the Nazis, it doesn’t matter whether the majority of the population actually agreed with any of that, or whether the incredible visibility of an endless sea of propaganda posters and pamphlet circulars (the modern equivalent of which is Twitter and Facebook’s algorithmic bias) was just falsely presenting to the public that this was the case. What matters is that the government, media, and corporate powers, in both cases, all acted as one symbiotic organ with a clear purpose and message designed to demonize anyone guilty of wrongthink and punish them for a lack of fealty to the ideological imperative.
The truth has only begun coming to light, and already it has all but buried the COVID narrative as it once stood, though a few remaining werewolves are still demanding that we mask up in supermarkets, and there are a few remaining policies which cling to the madness of the past, such as America’s refusing the top tennis player in the world entry into the country based upon his having not been injected with the COVID cartel’s preferred drug.
But those in charge, particularly those who knowingly misled the public to generate unfounded fear and orchestrated what was arguably the greatest and most widespread policymaking calamity in human history, must be held accountable in the biggest, boldest, and most symbolic manner imaginable to assure the world that this will never happen again in the West.
What we need in order to assure that outcome is something to rival the Nuremberg Trials in scope and sensationalism. Nuremberg was selected as the location for those trials because it was there where annual propaganda rallies were held and the sickness of Nazism began. It was symbolic to have Nazism’s end take place at the site of its beginning.
I’m hopeful that we will one day have the similarly symbolic Milan Trials to prosecute those government officials who orchestrated the lockdowns, school closures, and general human suffering that the West endured after the Lombardy region of Italy, where the city of Milan is located, followed China’s lockdown protocol without the slightest historical precedent suggesting any efficacy of the practice, and the rest of the West simply followed suit (for reasons that the Milan Trials might hopefully reveal).
Though China is likely the primary culprit in unleashing COVID upon the world, and it might be perhaps more appropriate to have these trials in Wuhan, it is difficult to imagine ways in which China’s ruling Communist Party can be held to account for their obvious role in all of this, outside of an armed conflict in which we are victorious. The Chinese clearly do not respect the international authority of the United States or other Western powers any more than they respect their own innocent and healthy citizens whom they are willing to incarcerate in their homes en masse by welding the doors to their homes shut, and they are clearly withdrawing from the international dialogue while signaling alliances with the West’s adversaries. This withdrawal may be occurring less dramatically than Japan’s storming away from the League of Nations in 1933 when the League attempted to hold it accountable for invading Manchuria, but efforts to hold China accountable for the Wuhan virus have been similarly met with Chinese disregard.
Here’s what is now supported by evidence as the likeliest series of events leading into the Western lockdowns, though only a year ago these would have been the ravings of a conspiracy theorist.
The Chinese government conducted gain-of-function experimentation with bat coronaviruses in an American-funded lab in Wuhan, and this mutated virus either escaped or was purposefully released. The communist Chinese government subsequently locked down areas affected by the outbreak while hiding the actual ravages of the virus and presented to the world the efficacy of lockdowns and the destruction of one’s own national economy in the interest of public health.
That the communist Chinese would do all of this out of desperation in order to jockey for a better economic position on the world stage would have shocked no one, even in early 2020. But, prior to 2020, we in the West imagined ourselves to be citizens of nations freer than that.
That fantasy crumbled in March of 2020, and Milan, Italy, was where it began.
Milan, a city of 1.2 million people, was the European ground zero for COVID lockdowns. On March 8, 2020, the streets were silent in Milan. Residents “woke up [that] Sunday to the news that it had been locked down by the Italian government in a bid to contain the coronavirus outbreak.”
Initially, it was just 16 million supposedly free citizens on lockdown in the Lombardy region of Italy. By March 10, it was expanded to all 60 million Italians, becoming the “first democratic nation since World War II to announce a nationwide lockdown.”
By March 14th, Spain was nationally locked down. By the 17th, so was France. By the 23rd of March, both the U.K. and Germany were under national lockdown. By April 1st, the majority of European countries were under national lockdown. And, as we all know, the United States had already begun instituting localized lockdowns (based upon national guidance) so widely that, by mid-April, 300 million Americans (more than 90%) were living under some form of lockdown.
What too few know, however, is that the West had flung its citizens into liberty-strangling lockdowns far more readily than even Asia, despite the fact that there had never been any modern evidence that such interventions as lockdowns could contain a respiratory viral outbreak.
For example, some very early, more reliable data emerged from South Korea. By March 27, the Center for Strategic International Studies was heralding its response, which included much coordination of health agencies and ample availability of testing, but the term “lockdown” which was being bandied about with increasing regularity in Western media didn’t appear. Indeed, as the West was instituting nationalized lockdowns at breakneck speed, South Korea never did more than issuing national recommendations, much like Sweden did at the time, and as did Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. In fact, few more than a handful of Asian nations had instituted national lockdowns by April 1, 2020. By that same date, more than three in four European nations had indiscriminately locked down their entire nations.
This South Korea data was discussed by Dr. David Katz in the New York Times on March 20 of 2020 as an appeal to not commit to lockdowns in the United States. He recognized that reports from South Korea showed that deaths were “mainly clustered among the elderly, those with significant chronic illnesses such as diabetes and heart disease, and those in both groups.” Prophetically, he warned our nation of the dangers that laid ahead if we remained committed to the lockdown strategy in order to “flatten the curve” as had already, by that time, been prescribed by Dr. Anthony Fauci:
A pivot right now from trying to protect all people to focusing on the most vulnerable remains entirely plausible. With each passing day, however, it becomes more difficult. The path we are on may well lead to uncontained viral contagion and monumental collateral damage to our society and economy.
Indeed, monumental collateral damage has been inflicted upon society and the economy in these past three years, along with the effects of uncontained viral contagion. Thankfully, we’ve reached a point where the former is discussed more commonly than the latter.
Lockdowns have been a disaster on a global scale, but there has never been any convincing evidence to substantiate their efficacy in the first place. The sober, rational people who were saying that at the time were heavily censored by early April 2020, if not erased totally in the interest of promoting preferred digital propaganda of the government, media, and corporate interests.
Why did Western nations commit to this unproven non-pharmaceutical intervention which stole irreplaceable time and experience from our children, destroyed countless small businesses while propping up corporate empires, commanded unprecedented powers for the government while stirring social unrest, and reshaped the balance of power between the citizen and the political class? Why did they silence people who were speaking the truth? Did they mean well and just get it wrong, or was there something more nefarious involved?
We need answers. And we demand justice, which can only come from identifying and adequately punishing those involved. That is the only way to ensure that nothing like the COVID madness we witnessed in 2020-2022 is ever inflicted upon the world again.
Houston due to medical emergencies; United Airlines Flight Diverted – Incapacitated Pilot In Hospital; sssshhhh, everybody, please hold your blankey & go back to sleep; left seat pilot had chest pains
“We diverted to Houston this evening so our team can address an unexpected crew-related matter. We’re sorry for any inconvenience, and we’ll keep you updated as we get more information.”
Word is the pilot was incapacitated with chest pains
US must get out of this bull shit now! Ukraine is not our fever to sweat for, this corrupted nation, this is Europe’s fever, PERIOD! we are driving Russia into China’s arms! Is US prepared for this?
battle to do this, this man risked his life as an American for an animal he does not know etc. he laid his life down for a moment because it was the right thing & there was a chance, this inspires me
It’s what we did to vulnerable people, sick people that killed them e.g. false COVID diagnosis, isolation, dehydration, sedation (midazolam/morphine), DNR, no antibiotics, Remdesivir, ventilation
Had we done NOTHING, we would have been far more successful because NOTHING worked, and made matters far worse!
I have stated and state again, had we done NOTHING, nothing, we would have lost far less people and the so called pandemic would have ended by January 2021. I even argue it never was a pandemic.
If the person is not responding, then do more of it, like lockdowns, harden them, extend them, so intubate harder, more Remdesivir, more midazolam, more ventilation…ramp up that ventilator pressure, surge it up, give them more yet all we were doing was blowing holes in badly damaged lungs, alveoli so badly under trauma that they blew up and people died! all of it helped kill our parents and grand parents. Not COVID virus. It is the denial of antibiotics that they actually needed, that also killed our elderly due to bacterial pneumonia yet no treatment was given.
Who will stand up and stop doctors from killing people with Remdesivir, if the state will not act? Estimated 100K people were killed by Remdesivir in USA alone; they know & pretend, HOMICIDE!
para; I think so and we need this leadership now, Trump is in position to become the global peacemaker; Trump has no crimes or assets to cover up in Ukraine. Trump can make a deal (Clandestine)
Tony on Twitter: “Unreal scenes in France as people not allowed into supermarkets without” covid passports”. https://t.co/jeSEdkZ84M” / Twitter
What a crazy place. Discrimination is simply that regardless of whether it’s by race, creed, color, or religion, or even whether or not One has a vaccine passport. Why anyone thinks this will encourage investment is remarkable.
Moody’s Downgrades Banking System from “Stable” to “Negative” – Crypto Takedown in Place with “Operation Choke Point”?
March 14, 2023 6:16 pm
In spite of the fact that President Biden and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have told Americans that the U.S. Banking System is “safe and sound,” Moody’s Investors Service today announced that they had downgraded the U.S. banking system to “negative” from “stable” to reflect “the rapid deterioration in the operating environment.” They also announced today that they were studying First Republic’s debt rating for a potential downgrade, along with five other regional banks. Sifting through the plethora of news today regarding the banking industry’s woes, there are some who are now questioning why the Feds closed down Signature Bank on Sunday, when other banks appeared to be worse off. This has led to speculation that cryptocurrency banks are being targeted, and the revival of the “Operation Choke Point” conspiracy theory.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.9021)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9046
TURKISH LIRA: 18.99 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.232…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 20 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3.087% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.630 DOWN 13 in basis points
USA 2 yr bond yield: 3.7611 DOWN 65 basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 104.62 UP 1.41 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 240.92 PTS OR 3.15%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 423.96POINTS OR 2.78%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 217.86 PTS OR 3.05%
Spain IBEX DOWN 330.80 POINTS OR 3.61%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 1022.37 PTS OR 3.83%
WTI Oil price 67.75 12: EST
Brent Oil: 73.65 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 76.13/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 81/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.141
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.372 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0583 DOWN 0.0145 OR 145 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.20620 DOWN .0091 or 91 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.395% DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 133.26 DOWN 1.190////YEN UP 119 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3760 UP .0071 (CDN dollar, DOWN 71 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 68.24
Brent OIL: 74.56
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 13 BASIS pts to 3.503%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS PTS to 3.695%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 27 PTS AT 3.9559%
USA dollar index: 104.07 UP 1.05 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.99
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 75.98 DOWN 0 AND 69/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 280.83 PTS OR 0.87%
NASDAQ 100 UP 51.54 PTS OR 0.42%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 26.93 UP 3.20 PTS (13.49)%
GLD: $178.19 UP 1.36 OR 0.77%
SLV/ $20.00 UP 0.11OR 0.55%
end)
1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
“Panic, Meltdowns, People Crying…”
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Forget SVB, Credit Suisse is the real thing – a SIFI that could bring it all down – and that is perhaps why the world his pet rabbit decided to buy some counterparty risk protection on the Swiss bank…
Source: Bloomberg
Credit Suisse has been a known issue for years, however, today’s rather public refusal by the Saudis to throw any more money at the Swiss bank, could have been the straw on this camel’s back, sending the stock to new record lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Credit Suisse ADRs (which traded after the late-day statement from SNB and Finma) shows the stock was not impressed…
Charles Gasparino tweeted the following, which seemed to sum things up well:
Breaking from a Credit Suisse employee: “panic, meltdowns, people crying.”
European bank stocks crashed 7% today, down 15% in the last week, erasing all the gains YTD…
Source: Bloomberg
And European credit risk soared broadly…
Source: Bloomberg
German 2Y, 5Y, & 30Y bond yields crashed by their most on record today…
Source: Bloomberg
As market expectations for The ECB tomorrow plummeted from a 100% chance of 50bps a week ago to just barely pricing in a 25bps hike…
Source: Bloomberg
And that derisking spread around the world, dragging US stocks and bond yields down, dollar and gold higher…
US equities plunged around 2% on the Credit Suisse contagion, but then well after EU closed, headline suggesting a statement from Swiss authorities prompted a rapid buying-panic, lifting Nasdaq green. But when the statement hit , it was disappointing and stocks faded back into the red with Small Caps the biggest losers (lots of small financials)…
The S&P 500 briefly went negative year-to-date before the Swiss support headlines
Late in the day saw 0DTE traders pushing negative against the rally…
Regional Banks extended recent losses today (despite the bounce back this afternoon)…
So much for the ‘bailout’ – here are some regional bank stock’s performances since Friday’s close…
Treasuries were aggressively bid on safe-haven flows from Credit Suisse stress, with the short-end outperforming, but some of that was sold away after the ‘show of support’ headlines. On the week, amid all the incredible volatility, 30Y yield are practically unchanged while 2YU yields are down 65bps…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y Yield crashed to its lowest since Sept 2022, back below 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y yield tested back below its 200DMA once again but found support…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve continues to steepen, with 2s30s at its least-inverted since Oct 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Fed rate-hike expectations crashed again today, below Monday’s lows, pricing in over 100bps of rate-cuts by year-end at today’s lows and for March, the market says it’s a coin-toss between ‘pause’ and 25bps…
Source: Bloomberg
The last few days have seen the market’s expectations of The Fed’s path ahead totally collapse, signaling a panic series of cuts is coming soon…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar saw safe-haven flows today and rallied back to Friday’s highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin traded flat to slightly lower today, finding support at $24,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices collapsed, with WTI suffering its worst daily decline in six months back below $70, plunging to its lowest since Dec 2021 before bouncing back later in the afternoon…
Copper crashed too, nearly red on the year, after ‘meh’ China data and global stress…
Gold extended gains today, despite dollar strength…
Finally, systemic risk indicators are flashing red as our global dollar liquidity proxy crashed further today as demand for dollars abroad is soaring…
Source: Bloomberg
Time for some giant swap lines and jawboning. Who will save the world again this time?
END
i b Morning trading: EUROPE IN PANIC
Markets Price In Central Bank Panic As Credit Suisse Risk Soars
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 07:00 AM
Update (0800ET): Aside from global derisking, anxiety over Credit Suisse has sparked a huge dovish response in Fed expectations with the odds of a 50bps hike next week at The ECB tumbling…
The entire curve expectations for ECB action has collapsed with the market now pricing in only 75bps of hikes by year-end…
And even more notably, Fed hike expectations have plunged with next week only a coin-toss between 0 and 25bps, and Sept pricing in 60bps of cuts…
With the terminal rate falling and coming sooner – May and done…
Pricing in a total panic by The Fed – with expectations of over 100bps of rate-cuts by year-end…
* * *
As we detailed earlier, Credit Suisse Group AG’s shares reached their lowest point ever, dropping by as much as 10%. This is the eighth consecutive session of decline, which comes in the wake of restructuring issues, delays in submitting its annual report due to ‘material weakness’ flagged by the SEC last week, and a broader industry selloff following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. In addition to these challenges, the troubled Swiss bank now faces a new problem: its top shareholder has said they will not invest any further due to the sharp decline in valuations.
“The answer is absolutely not, for many reasons outside the simplest reason, which is regulatory and statutory,” Saudi National Bank Chairman Ammar Al Khudairy told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Wednesday.
That was in response to a question about whether Credit Suisse would receive fresh injections if another liquidity crisis emerged.
Saudi National Bank, which is 37% owned by the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, is Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder as of late 2022 after acquiring a 9.9% stake. Al Khudairy said there are no plans at the moment to take the stake over the 10% threshold because of regulatory hurdles. In the last several months, since the bank’s equity has been on a waterfall lower, the Saudis have lost more than 500 million francs on their position.
The news the Saudis are perhaps done supporting the troubled Swiss bank sent shares down as much as 25% to a new record low in Zurich.
Putting that new record low in context… down over 98% from the 2000 highs. The red area is post-Greensill debacle…
Bear in mind that CD remains a SIFI, prompting systemic risk fears and has led to the cost of insuring the bank’s bonds against default in the near term to distressed levels.
“One-year credit default swaps for the embattled Swiss lender were indicated at 835.9 basis points on Tuesday’s close of business, based on pricing source CMAQ. Other pricing sources point to a further rise on Wednesday, while a level of 1,000 would indicate serious concern,” Bloomberg said.
Five-year credit default swaps have widened the most ever — indicating the restructuring of the bank and the hope to bring it back to profitability might be unattainable at the moment as a banking crisis triggered by SVB sparks contagion.
Also today, Credit Suisse Chairman Axel Lehmann stated the bank isn’t considering government aid and that it would be inaccurate to draw parallels between its current difficulties and the collapse of SVB.
“We have strong capital ratios, a strong balance sheet,” Lehmann said.
“We already took the medicine,” he said, referring to the restructuring program announced in late 2022.
Barclays told clients this morning that the outlook for European banks remains uncertain in the short term, citing “too-difficult-to-predict” risks and the restrictive pathway of monetary policy.
The anxiety over Credit is spreading globally, and is certainly not ring-fenced as the entire European banking sector (stock and credit) is cratering…
European banks are legging down on this news.
EU banking credit risk surging.
Yields on the Geman two-year slide.
And European short-term rates markets are pricing out a 50bps hike by The ECB next week…
Prompting derisking everywhere as flight-to-safety flows see the 10 Year yield in the US tumble to 3.53%.
US main equity futs also catch a leg lower.
Crude oil crashes….
…to 15 month lows…
And gold outshines everything as contagion risks surge.
It is possible that the regional banking crisis is not yet resolved and may even be spreading across the Atlantic.
END
Early morning trading: New York
Treasury yields collapse after First Republic is downgraded to junk and ready for garbage dump
(zerohedge)
Treasury Yields Collapse After First Republic Downgrade To ‘Junk’
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 09:29 AM
If the systemic risk hangover from Credit Suisse wasn’t enough of a drag on US banking stocks, the news that S&P just downgraded First Republic Bank to ‘junk’ has accelerated the global de-risking.
S&P cut First Republic Bank’s long-term issuer credit rating to BB+ from A- saying it thinks outflow risk remains elevated in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, despite regulatory help and the bank actively increasing its borrowing availability.
“We expect increased wholesale borrowings to further weigh on its net interest margin”
“We believe that First Republic’s deposit base is more concentrated than most large U.S. regional banks, which presents heightened funding risks in the current environment.”
First Republic stock is down 20% in the pre-market…
The Regional Bank index is crashing back near post-SVB lows…
And that has swung back with safe-haven flows into USTs with the 2Y yield collapsing…
To its lowest since Sept 2022…
As the market’s expectations for Fed action is dovishly disappearing with a March ‘pause’ now 75% priced in…
With over 120bps of rate-cuts now priced in for 2023…
And the terminal getting smaller and sooner…
Simply put – the market is pricing in a central bank panic (on recession or systemic risk threat).
II) USA DATA
Retail sales drop in Feb which is indicative of the upcoming recession. The drop in producer prices means inflation is cooling due to the recession as well.
(zerohedge)
Retail Sales & Producer Prices Drop In Feb
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 08:37 AM
With CPI having slapped some macro-sense back into people’s minds after a week focused on SVB’s fallout, this morning’s PPI and Retail Sales data could further that trend – despite Credit Suisse grabbing everyone’s attention today so far.
Producer Prices unexpectedly soared in January and analysts expected February data to show a slowdown in acceleration of prices. It did dramatically, dropping 0.1% MoM (+0.3% MoM exp) to its lowest YoY since March 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
The pipeline for PPI is also now dragging the headline even lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Who could have seen that coming?
And PPI is now leading CPI lower…
Source: Bloomberg
With price rises slowing, retail sales (measured nominally) were expected to shrink in February and they did, down 0.4% MoM as expected…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the lowest YoY rise in retail sales since Dec 2020…
Excluding gasoline and autos, retail sales were flat.
Nine out of 13 retail categories fell last month, led by furniture and restaurants.
The report showed vehicle sales declined 1.8% in February. The value of sales at gasoline stations decreased 0.6%, likely reflecting lower prices in the month.
It looks like the ‘lag’ from monetary policy is catching us up.
end
A strong indicator of weakness in the economy: New York Mfg index falls sharply.
(Market Watch)
New York Empire State factory gauge weakens sharply in March
March 15, 2023 at 8:34 a.m. ET
Market Watch
Headline index drops 18.8 points to negative 24.6
The numbers: The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state, fell 18.8 points to negative 24.6 in March , the regional Fed bank said Wednesday.
Economists had expected a reading of negative 5.0, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.
Readings below zero indicate contraction in activity. The index has been volatile recently but this is the fourth straight negative reading. The index fell to a low of 32.9 in January before recovering some last month.
Key details: New orders fell 13.9 points to negative 21.7 in March. Expectations of general business conditions six months ahead fell 11.8 points but remained slightly positive at 2.9.
Big picture: Manufacturing is struggling from soft domestic demand as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
The Empire index is seen as a precursor of the national manufacturing gauge released by the Institute for Supply Management at the start of each month. The ISM factory index rose slightly to 47.7% in February, staying below the key 50 breakeven mark for the fourth straight month. Manufacturers in the national survey did not express any alarm about business activity, viewing the slowdown as temporary.
-END-
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS//
Oh really?? They defend giving them a clean bill of health? What planet are they on????
(Ozimek/EpochTimes)
Top Audit Firm Defends Giving Clean Bill Of Health To SVB, Signature Bank Weeks Before Failure
Audit giant KPMG is standing by its audits of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, which collapsed when customers rushed to withdraw their savings in panic-fueled bank runs.
The two banks failed not long after their respective annual reports were certified by KPMG, one of the so-called “Big Four” accounting firms, a list that also includes Deloitte, Ernst & Young, and PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Paul Knopp, CEO of KPMG’s U.S. operations, defended the firm’s audit work on SVB and Signature in an interview with Financial Times during a Tuesday event at the NYU Stern Center for Sustainable Business.
He pointed to “market-driven events” and “unpredictable” customer reactions to such events as examples of factors behind bank failures that audit work is powerless to address.
“As we take into account everything we know today … we stand behind the reports we issued and we think we followed all professional standards,” Knopp told the outlet.
Knopp insisted that KPMG “absolutely” considered all the facts that were known up until the day the audits were issued, adding that it’s impossible to know with certainty what will happen after the reports are released.
He didn’t go into the specifics of the causes of the twin bank failures, speaking only in general terms about “actions” and “reactions” in the context of bank runs.
The SVB collapse came as depositors rushed for the exits as word spread that the bank had booked huge losses on its bond portfolios, which eroded in value due to rising interest rates.
Signature’s failure came as panic spread from the collapse of SVB and as Signature’s connections with the crypto space seemed to spook depositors, who rushed to withdraw their money.
Both banks had above average amounts of uninsured deposits, meaning amounts above the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) deposit guarantee of $250,000 per depositor per account category. Uninsured amounts are subject to losses in case of bank failure.
‘Going Concern’ Warnings
KPMG signed its audit of SVB on Feb. 24, two weeks before the bank failed. The Signature audit was signed off on by KMPG on March 1, a little over a week before its collapse.
Questions have been raised as to why neither of KPMG’s two audits included a so-called “going concern” warning, which would be a requirement if the audit firm had substantial doubt as to whether the banks could survive over the next 12 months.
KPMG did not immediately respond to a request for comment by The Epoch Times nor to a question about why the two audits didn’t include such a warning.
Experts say it’s likely that KPMG will face regulatory scrutiny over the audits.
“Common sense tells you that an auditor issuing a clean report, a clean bill of health, on the 16th-largest bank in the United States that within two weeks fails without any warning, is trouble for the auditor,” Lynn Turner, former chief accountant of the Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC), said in remarks to the Wall Street Journal.
The failures of SVB and Signature were the second and third biggest bank collapses in U.S. history and drew fears of contagion risk. This prompted U.S. financial authorities to adopt a “systemic risk exemption” and expand the FDIC’s guarantee to cover all the deposits at the two banks, so including money that would normally be uninsured and therefore subject to market discipline and losses.
FDIC seeks to restart the sale of Silicon Valley bank: good luck to them if they get a buyer.
(zerohedge)
FDIC Seeks Help To Restart Sale Of Silicon Valley Bank After First Attempt Falters
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 02:00 PM
US banking regulators have been placed in a challenging situation following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, as they are now responsible for protecting depositors and preventing further bank runs. Regulators are now facing the daunting task of attempting to auction off the failed bank for a second time, but this time have sought the assistance of an investment bank to explore potential options.
Regulators at the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) tapped advisors at the investment bank Piper Sandler Companies to relaunch a failed auction of SVB, according to Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter.
Officials from the FDIC seized SVB last Friday after $42 billion of deposit withdrawals one day prior caused the bank to fail. A weekend auction of the bank to top institutions proved to be unsuccessful.
On Monday, sources informed about the situation told WSJ that FDIC officials had told Senate Republicans that they now had more flexibility to sell the bank after it was declared a failure and threat to the US financial system.
Fast forward to Wednesday, these latest updates reveal that the FDIC is making arrangements for a potential second sale, with the possibility of considering selling the bank as a whole or exploring piecemeal deals.
Meanwhile, the parent of Silicon Valley Bank, SVB Financial Group, has been separately searching for a buyer for its investment bank and investment business.
It is worth noting that there were potential buyers for SVB over the weekend, but FDIC officials prevented the sale.
Kevin Hassett reveals “there were buyers who were willing to step in & buy [SVB, but] the radicals at the @FDICgov basically weren’t going to allow that to happen … the Biden Admin had a whitelist of companies that were allowed to buy the failed bank & companies that weren’t.” pic.twitter.com/Tsp2zPK70t— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) March 13, 2023
The Fed’s anti-inflation measures had to hurt someone…
The Federal Reserve is in the unenviable position of achieving its mandate by crashing the economy. It’s not something it wants to do, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell meekly admitted in his exchange with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) last week. But it’s something that happens as an unavoidable outcome of slowing down an economy littered with excess money and inflation. Broad money growth has been negative since late November, and interest rate expenses on everything from corporate borrowing to credit cards to the government’s own debt have been rising fast.
This hiking cycle, the fastest that the Fed has embarked upon in a generation, was always likely to break something. And break something they did over the weekend, from the regulated stablecoins USDC and Gemini Dollar, which lost their dollar pegs, to Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which faced the second-largest bank run in U.S. history. If one weren’t so hung up on labor markets, inflation figures, and congressional soundbites, presumably these are the sort of things that a monetary authority like the Fed is tasked to manage. Oops.
In Powell’s back-and-forth with Warren, the senator pointed to “things you can’t fix with high interest rates—things like price gouging, supply chain kinks and the war in Ukraine.” Regardless of how little sense those arguments make, our favorite senator is accidentally correct: monetary policy is about money and assets and banks, with only limited (residual) influence over things in real markets.
Barking up the wrong trees—unemployment, market power—Warren missed an opportunity to examine the things that really are breaking. Around the same time she spoke those words and Powell defended the Fed’s action, SVB was desperately trying to raise new money. The effort failed, and plenty of tech investors, including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, pulled their mostly uninsured deposits at the bank as quickly as they could.
According to Bloomberg, bank CEO Greg Becker asked creditors on a call Thursday to “support the bank the way it has supported its customers over the past 40 years”—as if any bank run had ever been stopped by asking nicely.
The losses in SVB’s Treasury portfolio—courtesy of the Fed’s quick rate hikes, which crashed the bond market last year—amount to billions of dollars in unrealized losses. The accounting rules of “held to maturity” allows banks to ignore mark-to-market losses if the securities are intended to be held until they come due. Of course, holding to maturity requires you to finance the securities in the meantime, something that’s pretty much impossible when your customers don’t think you’ll make it and instead are demanding their deposits back en masse.
If we ignore this accounting trick, Silicon Valley Bank was already “insolvent” by September of last year, when the unrealized bond losses exceeded its equity.
Towards the end of last year, some $25 billion of deposits ran off as SVB’s customers drained their bank deposits to withstand the business pressures of inflation and a thriving venture capital industry dying down. Another $10 billion followed in the early months of 2023, and who knows how much managed to escape over the last few days—Fortune reports $42 billion on Thursday alone—before management threw in the towel on Friday and had the bank placed into the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s receivership.
Because Treasuries are “risk-free” and therefore carry lower capital requirements for banks to hold against them, banks allocate more of their funds to them. This concentrates banking system risk in a single interest-sensitive security. SVB is just the most extreme and reckless version of a risk present in most American banks. For reference, the rest of the U.S. banking system has unrealized losses amounting to more than $600 billion, some 25 times more than the losses that just brought down SVB.
There’s no shortage of blame to place on regulators for having engineered such an unnatural banking market. Far from making banks “safe,” the regulatory system concentrates risks, with the alphabet soup of Fed liquidity facilities standing ready to money-print their way out of any trouble.
As Caitlin Long, CEO of Custodia Bank, pointed out on Saturday, this pushes the Fed into a very delicate position: risk systemic bank runs, or roll back the hikes and quantitative tightening that caused this mess, printing money for an even hotter inflation.
1/ SVB—WHAT WENT WRONG * mgmt: debauched its balance sheet * depositors >$250k: thought their deposit at a fractional-reserve bank wasn’t an unsecured loan to a leveraged borrower (it is) * Fed as regulator: that morning, the top cop said Fed-supervised banks don’t have bank runs
2/ * Fed FOMC: created the “gap risk” now kneecapping community banks (which met their bank capital rqmts by buying long-term bonds) * bank risk managers: didn’t realize such gap risk (unhedged risk of a spike in interest rates) would morph into big liquidity risk amid a bank run
3/ * the existence of fractional-reserve banking: means the system is inherently unstable & prone to bank runs bc it’s insolvent as a whole * banks: didn’t raise equity capital at first sign of trouble * bond mkt: who knows where true interest rates wld be if not manipulated?
4/ * The DC politicians & regulators who are cheering the bank failures (the anti-tech, anti-crypto crowd): you started all this & you own it * The so-called “free mkt defenders” in Congress: created an unstable banking system & gave US bank regulators the tools to politicize it
5/ SO NOW WHAT? * loud calls for bailouts * the rest depends on whether bank run becomes systemic (FDIC insurance fund isn’t big enuf to handle a systemic run) * community banks need to repair their balance sheets—can happen via lower interest rates &/or fresh equity capital
Most awkward of all, here’s what Michael Barr, the Fed vice chair for supervision, said in a speech Thursday as the run was in full swing: “The banks we regulate, in contrast, are well protected from bank runs through a robust array of supervisory requirements.” Double-oops.
The stablecoins that Barr was railing against did indeed break over the weekend. The kicker is that it was the transparently audited ones—whose sponsors have been cozying up to U.S. regulators in recent years—who broke their pegs. The eternal scapegoat Tether, shrouded in mystery, investigated and fined by the New York attorney general in 2021, traded at a premium of as much as 3 percent on Saturday. Everything, it seems, is upside down.
Through the magic of “held to maturity,” perhaps all the other banks can endure the storm and come out the other side without the same losses that SVB was forced to book last week. It certainly gets easier to harbor underwater securities on your books when the Fed stands ready to finance them for you.
Hang on to your hat—or in this case, your bank account. Because Sen. Warren is right about one thing:
“The Fed has a terrible track record in containing modest increases in the unemployment rate.”
And last week, something already broke.
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
Treasury finally gives Republicans Biden’s family “suspicious activity” banking reports
(zerohedge)
Treasury To Give Biden Family ‘Suspicious Activity’ Banking Reports To GOP Investigators
TUESDAY, MAR 14, 2023 – 06:10 PM
The Treasury Department is finally complying with a request to release suspicious activity reports (SARs) generated in connection with the Biden family and their associates’ business transactions.
US banks have filed over 150 SARs from Hunter and President Joe Biden’s brother, James, which included “large” amounts of money tagged for further review by the Treasury. According to a 2020 report, SARs “often contain evidence of potential criminal activities, such as money laundering and fraud.”
In December, the Treasury denied Congressional investigators access to the SARs.
“Most Americans have never heard the term ‘Suspicious Activity Reports.’ These are actual reports that financial institutions file with the Treasury Department when they see suspicious activity,” House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan told Epoch TV’s Joshua Phillip in an interview for the “Newsmakers” program at the time.
“Typically, it’s money laundering type of activity, so most Americans don’t get these. Or if they do, there is a good reason for it. But there are 150 of them on Hunter Biden and Jim Biden, the President’s brother, and that to me is a big concern,” Jordan said.
House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-KY) demanded the records from the Treasury on January 11, however the Treasury denied the request – citing “improper disclosure” of relevant information which could hinder the Biden administration’s ability to “conduct of law enforcement, intelligence, and national security activities,” Breitbartreports.
The Treasury’s compliance comes after the committee’s probe has so far met resistance from Hunter Biden and from some of his associates, such as Serbian politician Vuk Jeremić and Hunter’s art dealer.
While the probe has met resistance, the committee has found a few key individuals willing to comply. The Biden family’s former top financial lieutenant Eric Schwerin is expected to “soon” provide requested documents to the committee. Schwerin, who shared bank accounts with Joe Biden and was dubbed the family’s “moneyman,” was also the president of Rosemont Seneca Partners, a fund created by Hunter Biden and several associates that spawned business deals in Russia, Ukraine, China, and Romania.
In addition, Joe Biden’s former executive assistant Kathy Chung is scheduled on April 4 to sit for a requested transcribed interview with the committee’s investigation into the Biden family business and Joe Biden’s classified document scandal. Chung was hired as Joe Biden’s assistant when he was vice president after a recommendation from Hunter Biden. Chung appears in numerous email threads on Hunter’s “laptop from hell.” -Breitbart
“It’s As Bad As We Thought”
On Sunday, Comer told Fox News‘ Maria Bartiromo on “Sunday Morning Futures” that money from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)flowed to the Biden family.
“It’s as bad as we thought… Since we’ve last spoken we have bank records in hand. We have individuals who are working with our committee,” said Comer.
“In the last two weeks we’ve met with either these individuals personally or with their attorneys. And that would be four individuals who had ties in with the Biden family in their various schemes around the world. So now we have in hand documents We have in hand documents in hand that show just how the Biden family was getting money from the Chinese Communist Party.“
Suspicious activities indeed…
end
Simply awful: the first amendment trashes again
(Matt Taibbi)
Taibbi: In FBI Case, The First Amendment Takes Another Bizarre Hit
Racket readers may recall that in November, shortly before the Twitter Files began, I ran an interview with Steve Friend, a onetime FBI agent who lost his career after blowing the whistle on the Bureau.
Friend refused to participate in a bureaucratic scheme to put local agents across the country in charge of J6 cases that were really being run out of the Washington office, a plan that made one Washington-based case look like a national map full of domestic terror cases popping up everywhere. He also objected to heavy-handed tactics like the use of S.W.A.T. teams for a suspect communicating voluntarily through an attorney, and the questioning of people in connection with J6 in cases where the state had little to no evidence. From that story:
Friend didn’t think the interview was warranted, and worried the feds showing up at someone’s door without cause “might do more harm than good” in a part of the country where government was unpopular already. He sucked it up and did the “knock and talk” anyway.
“I said, ‘Hey, were you at the Capitol?’” Friend recalls. “And he said, ‘No, that was my son’s funeral that day. I wasn’t there.’”
He shakes his head. “It hit me like a ton of bricks. I thought, I can’t believe I just made this guy relive that. And for what? Even if he’d admitted to being there, if he said, ‘I was there, I don’t wanna talk about it,’ I couldn’t even charge that.”
But even though Friend had reservations about some of the cases, his main concern was procedural — that by playing bureaucratic games with who was running these investigations, and putting locals nominally in charge of cases where they were really in supporting roles, they put all of the court cases in jeopardy. “A lot of these guys are bad dudes, and they should go to jail,” he said, about the Oath Keepers. But if “we didn’t follow our rules… we set ourselves up to get crushed at trial,” adding, “I want to win.”
A little over a week ago, the same Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of Government that organized the Twitter Files hearings privately heard testimony from Steve and two other FBI whistleblowers. The Democratic Party response to Steve and his colleagues was eerily similar to tactics pulled out against myself and Mike Shellenberger:
— Mike and I were not real journalists, they said, but “so-called journalists.” Steve and his fellow agents “are not, in fact, whistleblowers,” according to the minority report, and “do not meet the definition of a whistle-blower,” according to the New York Times.
— I was told by Florida’s Debbie Wasserman-Schultz that “being a Republican witness certainly casts a cloud over your objectivity”; Democratic Party sources told the Times that Steve and fellow agents Garret O’Boyle and George Hill “have engaged in partisan conduct that calls into question their credibility”;
— Democratic questioners in our case asked us about our opinions on Russian interference, and one said openly that failing to agree with them on that issue disqualified us from the “nuanced convo”; Steve, George, and Garrett were repeatedly quizzed about their attitudes toward various right-wing movements, suggesting that their opinions about these matters made them ineligible to offer procedural complaints. Friend, for instance, was asked about statements by “Three Percenters”:
Q: (Quoting from flyer) “Remember this, it comes straight from our Declaration of Independence, that whenever any form of government becomes destructive, it is the right and duty of the people to alter or abolish it. That is why you are here. For massive change to occur massive action must be taken. Patriots, we are the lifeblood of this great nation, and it’s time we prove that.” Do you have an opinion about this statement?
Friend: It seems like First Amendment-protected activity.
— Michael and I were repeatedly quizzed about money we may have made during the Twitter Files period, with Wasserman-Schultz going so far as to harangue my about my Twitter followers tripling and to ask us if we were paid for our testimony; Committee Democrats accused Friend of having “profited, and is profiting, from making his allegations about the FBI public”;
— Congressman Colin Allred told me to “take off my tinfoil hat”; the three FBI agents were accused of “conspiratorial social media posts,” as the Times put it.
— Allred also blasted me for criticizing the “national security agencies” and told me to go home and “grapple” with the reality that the “very rights you think they’re trying to undermine, they may be trying to protect”; Friend and his fellow agents were accused of aiding in a “vendetta against the FBI”;
— Shellenberger and I were accused of being stooges of Elon Musk; Friend and the agents, agents of Kash Patel.
But the most outrageous portion of the Democratic Party’s report came in a section claiming that, because the agents were not really whistleblowers, and therefore really just expressing their opinion, they were not covered. “No law,” they wrote, “protects witnesses who speak to congress under these circumstances.”
The Whistleblower Protection Act specifically and the First Amendment generally come to mind, but not to this Committee office.
The style of the new anti-speech Democrat is clear: define all government critics as lacking standing to criticize, impugn their prior opinions and associations, imply that all their beliefs areconspiracy theory, define their lack of faith in the FBI’s judgment as treasonous, and declare their motivation to be financial. Lastly, when they invoke common constitutional rights, make a note that their activities exist in an uncovered carve-out.
This is the playbook, and we all better get used to it.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report
Independent View of the News
The King Report March 15, 2023 Issue 6968Independent View of the NewsHere’s the crux of the problem: 40-year Grand Super Cycle bond bull market, greatest US bond rally ever, ends; most money managers have never managed debt in a secular bond bear market; Biden tries to outdo FDR, drops trillions of dollars in helicopter money on the masses; inflation surges; Fed is slow and reluctant to act on fear of debt implosion; Fed repeatedly warns that this time they really mean it; most people ignore or mock the Fed’s redundant warnings; inflation hits 40-year high; Fed hikes rates; most people believe that the Fed will chicken out sooner rather than later, so they don’t prepare for the deluge; in 2022, the30-year bond tanks 39.2%, greatest decline on record back to 1754, 10-year sinks a record 17.8%; something (SVB) breaks; institutions and people hold trillions of dollars in unrealized bond/MBS/debt losses; unless Powell can conger up a genie or some magic, look out! https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/26/2022-was-the-worst-year-since-1937-for-this-invest/
US February CPI is the expected 0.4% m/m and 6% y/y. However, CPI Core is 0.5% m/m; 0.4% was consensus. Core CPI is the expected 5.5% y/y. Real average hourly earnings fell 1.3% y/y, the 23rd consecutive monthly decline. Real average weekly earnings fell 1.9% y/y.
Tuesday’s King Report: Do you think Team Biden/The Fed would allow the BLS to publish a bad CPI?
Bulls say BLS rents are lagging reality; so, CPI and Core CPI should be lower. However, bulls eschew the fact that used car prices, which Manheim has -7.0% y/y, declined 13.6% y/y per the BLS. And even worse for bulls, services ex-housing & energy increased 0.5%, the biggest gain since September. https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html
Price changes y/y: Transportation +14.6%, Nat Gas +14.3%, Electricity +12.9%, Food at home +10.2%, Food away from home +8.4%, Shelter +8.1%, New cars +5.8%, Gasoline -2.0%, Used cars/trucks -13.6% https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Powell keeps emphasizing that services inflation has been intransient due to tight labor markets.
US Core CPI Tops Estimates, Pressuring Fed as It Weighs Hike – BBGUnderlying gauge rose 0.5% in February, most in five monthsShelter accounted for more than 70% of overall monthly gainStripping out energy and housing, services prices were up 0.5%, the most since September (0.36% in Jan)… Powell and his colleagues have stressed the importance of looking at such a metric when assessing the nation’s inflation trajectory, though they compute it based on a separate index… https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/us-core-cpi-tops-estimates-pressuring-federal-reserve-as-it-weighs-hike-123031401060_1.html
@jasonfurman: Or you can look at the core services ex housing that the Fed has repeatedly cited, which increased relative to the previous four months (although not monotonically like the others). https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1635628317570383873
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.6% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.5% in February Note that Owners’ Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up 8.8% annualized… This data is lagged and asking rents have declined in recent months… https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/03/cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-06.html
Cleveland Fed: How Median CPI and 16 Percent Trimmed-Mean CPI Are Calculated To calculate the median CPI, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland looks at the prices of the goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). But instead of calculating an inflation rate that is a weighted average of all of the items in the CPI, as the BLS does, the Cleveland Fed ranks the inflation rates of the components of the CPI and picks the one in the middle of the distribution—that is, the item whose expenditure weight is in the 50th percentile of the price change distribution… https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/median-cpi
@SamanthaLaDuc: Nationalizing banks wasn’t really on the 2023 bingo card. But these same banks hold an estimated $247 trillion in derivatives, so they matter! But let’s not call it a “bail-in”.
ESHs opened higher on Monday night and traded sideways until they jumped higher at 7:11 ET. The usual suspects knew it was time to get long for the expected expiry manipulation.
ESHs tumbled 40 handles in seconds on the February CPI Report. The usual suspects immediately poured into ESHs, driving them 49 handles higher in seconds. ESHs rallied three more handles and peaked at 8:31 ET. ESHs then sank 37 handles by 8:35 ET.
ESHs then commenced a robust rally that peaked 6 minutes before the 11:30 ET European close. ESHs had soared 87.50 from their 3885.00 low at 8:30 ET (CPI report). After a rollover, ESHs tumbled on:
Russian fighter jet forces down US drone over Black Sea after intercept “At approximately 7:03 AM (CET), one of the Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner. This incident demonstrates a lack of competence in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional,” US Air Force Gen. James B.Hecker, commander, U.S. Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa said… https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/russian-jet-us-drone-black-sea/index.html
The ESH/stock tumble ended at 14:08 ET. The ensuing rally ended at 14:48 ET. ESHs and stocks sank until 15:17 ET. The expected last-hour manipulation propelled ESHs 52 handles by the close.
WAL hit +53% at 10:46 ET, sank to -13.8% at 15:40 ET, closed +14.32%. Thank God for manipulation! @ReutersJamie: The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 55 basis points on Monday. That is the single biggest daily fall since October 20, 1987, the day after Black Monday. A bigger fall than anything seen around the Tequila crisis, Asian crisis, LTCM, 9/11, Lehman and the GFC… extraordinary. https://t.co/gQHJ5N1uYL
Large US banks inundated with new depositors as smaller lenders face turmoilhttps://t.co/qup7g4ehtV
FDIC official (Martin J. Gruenberg) warned 4 years ago that uninsured regional bank deposits were an ‘underappreciated risk.’ No one listened, and we’re now paying the price Regional banks, or those with assets between $50 billion and $500 billion, “pose very significant challenges to the FDIC,” Gruenberg said. “Their size, complexity, and reliance on market funding and uninsured deposits would present very substantial risks in resolution, with potential systemic consequences.”… At SVB, some 93% of all deposits exceeded the FDIC’s $250,000 insurance limit, according to Bloomberg… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fdic-official-warned-4-years-194727878.html
@zerohedge: Very good note from Goldman’s Tony Pasquariello. Read the whole thing but the highlights section is terrifying if true: 60% of all deposits in the US are above $250K, i.e. uninsured, which translates to over $10TNhttps://t.co/5iixSe13pX
As losses mounted, Silicon Valley Bank doubled down on woke investments and left-wing rhetoric It allied in cash and manpower with a liberal nonprofit run by California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s wife and fully embraced the environmental, social and governance (ESG) platform… The stark contrast between the liberal investment icon and what was in reality an underperforming bank, was on full display last July… J.P. Morgan official Steve Alexopoulos pressed for answers on an investor call about why its investments had lost 8% of value in a single quarter, according to the transcript of the meeting… “We knew it was financially mismanaged, but oh my gosh, this is probably the most woke bank in existence of mankind — or it was the most woke bank,” said Joel Griffith, a financial fellow at the Heritage Foundation… https://justthenews.com/accountability/svb-knew-150-million-investment-losses-and-still-doubled-down-woke-agenda-despite
@SenWarren: Fed Chair Powell’s actions directly contributed to these bank failures. For the Fed’s inquiry to have credibility, Powell must recuse himself from this internal review. (What about Daly?) It’s appropriate for Vice Chair for Supervision Barr to have the independence necessary to do his job.
@paulsperry_: Mary Daly, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco chief who failed to see major red flags at failed Silicon Valley Bank, was inspired by Marxian economist Gene Wagner, who she said “has mentored me my whole life”
Women in Economics: Mary Daly March 28, 2018 Maria Hasenstab: You just mentioned an inspiring instructor… Mary Daly: Yes… Gene Wagner had that sense of economic, social science, policy, everything all rolled into one… Well, I’m a big believer in, “it takes a village” for any one of us to be really successful… another important mentor in my life was Janet Yellen, or is Janet Yellen. She is still a mentor of mine… I am a labor economist by training, but for much of my career I’ve worked on the social safety net and how robust and sturdy is the social safety net… https://www.stlouisfed.org/timely-topics/women-in-economics/mary-daly
History of the economics department at University of Missouri-Kansas City Gene Wagner… became engaged in activities of the Union for Radical Political Economics (URPE) circa 1970… https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30492/2/MPRA_paper_30492.pdf
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied sharply on expiry related buying; Fangs led the rally, an expiration staple
Negative aspects of previous session Inflation remains hot & beaucoup bucks might be created to save banks if SVB is the coalmine canary The DJTA was weak all day, closed -54.03 despite a big decline in energy commodities
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Commodities plunged Bonds declined sharply until the report of the US drone-Su-27 collision appeared
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3910.49 Previous session High/Low: 3937.29; 3873.63
Carl Icahn: ‘Our System Is Breaking Down,’ ‘We Absolutely Have a Major Problem in Our EconomyToday’ – ‘You can’t have the country feeling that it doesn’t matter if they save … [You] could do whatever you want because the government will bail you out… There’s been a loss of financial discipline with the government bailing out depositors in full.’… you don’t have good corporate leadership… https://news.grabien.com/story-carl-icahn-our-system-is-breaking-down-we-absolutely-have-a-major-prob
Fed to Consider Tougher Rules for Midsize Banks After SVB: WSJ …tougher capital and liquidity requirements for midsize banks, as well as steps to beef up “stress tests” that assess banks’ ability to weather a hypothetical recession… New Fed rules could target firms between $100 billion to $200 billion in assets… (This should reduce lending and foster a recession.)
Today – The explosive, albeit manipulated, rally on Tuesday increases the odds that the Fed will hike rates by 25bps next week. Today is Weird Wednesday, which normally marks the peak intensity of the expiry manipulation. Traders will try to force stuff higher. Another explosive rally and further equity strength into the FOMC Meeting next week could put a 50bp rate hike on the table.
Stay away; wait for news and developments. Only play if you must! There is no telling what evil lurks out there! ESHs are -6.50 at 20:30 ET, perhaps on the proposed tighter banking rules, or Cramer.
Expected economic data: Feb PPI 0.3% m/m % 5.4% y/y, Core 0.4% m/m & 5.2% y/y; March Empire Mfg -7.8; Feb Retail Sales -0.4% m/m, ex-Autos unchanged, ex-Autos & Gas -0.2%; Jan Business Inventories unchanged; March NAHB Housing Market Index 40
@paulsperry_: Biden’s daughter-in-law Sara Biden figuring larger in House investigation of Biden family influence peddling with the Chinese, Hill sources say. Money trail leads back to her and her husband’s shell company.
Ron DeSantis says helping Ukraine fend off Russia not a vital US interesthttps://t.co/qARBsdo5rw
@Cernovich: Trumps nonstop snipping at DeSantis, who isn’t responding, shows the power hierarchy and shows who is threatened. Contenders call out champions, not the other way around.
@DrEliDavid: DeSantis on Covid lockdowns: “So I call and say, ‘Deborah [Birx], tell me: when in American history has this been done?’ And she says, ‘It’s kind of our own science experiment that we’re doing in real time.’” Lockdowns were Fauci’s “science experiment” https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1635739205874712608
@KanekoaTheGreat: @RobertKennedyJr tells @jimmy_dore that Dr. Anthony Fauci has been in charge of developing bioweapons for the Pentagon since 2002, and in 2014, three viruses escaped from US labs, so he moved his bioweapons research to the Wuhan lab: “They took the money that Cheney gave them [from the Patriot Act], $2.2 billion, and they funneled it through NIH, and it all went through Anthony Fauci. So beginning in 2002, Anthony Fauci got a 68% raise from the Pentagon for doing bioweapons development, and he got a raise of billions of dollars a year, and then he started doing all of this gain-of-function. In 2014, three of those bugs escaped in high-profile escapes from different labs in the US. Congress held hearings on it. Everybody was angry, and 300 top scientists sent letters to Obama saying you got to shut down Fauci because he is going to create a pandemic. So, Obama ordered a moratorium, and at that time, Fauci had eighteen different gain-of-function experiments he was doing around the US. He instead moved his stuff offshore to Wuhan, where he could do it out of sight of these 300 scientists and nosy White House officials who were trying to shut him down. And he continued to do it with the same people he was funding here, Ralph Baric and Peter Dazak, and they moved their operation to the Wuhan lab.” https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1635453313377533952 mRNA inventor @RWMaloneMD: This is part of the story. The other key part is the role of CIA, DARPA, InQTel.
@KanekoaTheGreat: @RobertKennedyJr tells @jimmy_dore: “Trump got in there and said I’m going to get rid of the swamp. He asked me to be on a vaccine safety commission. When that news got out, Pfizer gave him $1 million for his inaugural party, and he appointed two of Pfizer’s lobbyists, Scott Gottlieb and Alex Azar, to run HHS. They killed the vaccine safety commission, and Gottlieb went on to serve on Pfizer’s board. The thing that I feel like I have, Jimmy, is that I sued those agencies for forty years; I know how they work, I’ve written books about them, I’ve studied them, I know the people in them who are causing the problems, I know how to fix them.” https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1635418049187840001 @RobertKennedyJr tells @jimmy_dore anthrax was mailed to the two senators trying to block the Patriot Act in 2001, and the FBI discovered that the anthrax came from the CIA lab in Fort Detrick: “By the time they figured it out, they had already passed the Patriot Act, and we… https://t.co/Y1EPcSfh6n
* the rest depends on whether bank run becomes systemic (FDIC insurance fund isn’t big enuf to handle a systemic run) * community banks need to repair their balance sheets—can happen via lower interest rates &/or fresh equity capital
harveyorganblog.com 
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
LikeLike
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
LikeLike