MARCH 16//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $6.95 TO $1918.20//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 25 CENTS TO $21,59//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $12.80 TO $962.75//PALLADIUM FINISHED THE DAY DOWN $65.25 TO $1363.25//BANKING CRISES CONTINUE WITH A RESCUE ATTEMPT AT SMALL BANKS WITH A MISMATCH OF SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DEBT//CREDIT SUISSE PROBLEMS CONTINUE UNABATED AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A MAJOR DERIVATIVE PROBLEM//UKRAINE VS USA// SURPRISINGLY THE ECB RAISES ITS RATE BY .50% DESPITE THE CREDIT SUISSE PROBLEMS//PHLLY MFG INDEX FALLS AGAIN BADLY/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 274 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 19 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 11 661 C JP MORGAN 79 661 H JP MORGAN 409 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 7 737 C ADVANTAGE 28 7 905 C ADM 54
TOTAL: 444 444
TOTAL: 471 471 MONTH TO DATE: 3,807
JPMORGAN stopped 1/471 contracts
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT: 444 NOTICES FOR 44400 OZ or 1.3810 TONNES
total notices so far: 4251 contracts for 425,100 oz (13222 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 4 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 20,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3010 for 15,050,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://////A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.25
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 5,009,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 473.226. MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY AN FAIR SIZED 459 CONTRACTS TO 121,313 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.07 LOSSIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY . WE AGAIN ARE CLOSING IN ON OUR NEW LOW COMEX OI SILVER SET AT 121,299 CONTRACTS , MARCH 3/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.07). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 1590 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1883 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.58 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 5,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 15.280 MILLION OZ + THE 1.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 16.280 MILLION OZ/ //// V) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –163 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 10,094 contracts: OR 55.470 MILLION OZ . (841 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 55.470 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 55.47MILLION OZ//INITIAL//ON PAR WITH LAST MONTH
RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 459 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.07 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1883 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF 15.58 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON (WHICH DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 1.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN MARCH (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 16.280 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1424OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3344 CONTRACTS TO 455,720 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 507 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 3344 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $18.75 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 49,700 OZ (1.546 TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London).
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $18.75 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 1978 OI CONTRACTS (3,046 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4322 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 455,729
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 978 CONTRACTS WITH 3344CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4372 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 978 CONTRACTS OR 3.046 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4322 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3,344) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 978 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 49,700 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 13.698 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 50,513 CONTRACTS OR 5,051,300 OZ OR 157.12 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4209 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 12TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 157.12 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 157.12/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 157.12 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 459 CONTRACTS OI TO 121,476 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 121,299 CONTRACTS MARCH 3/2022 AND WE MAY SURPASS THIS RECORD SOME THIS THIS WEEK.
EFP ISSUANCE 1883 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1883 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1883 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 459CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1883 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 1424 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //7.120 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.07 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.42 PTS OR 1.12% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 335.76 PTS OR 1.72% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 218.87 PTS OR 0.80% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.52% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.8985//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.89999// /Oil DOWN TO 67.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 73.85 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3344 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 455,720 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $18.75 ON WEDNESDAY
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4322 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 4932 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4932 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 978 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4322LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 3,344 CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $18.75. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAR (13.698) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 13.698 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $18.75) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 978 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 3.041 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 49,700OZ (1.576 TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $18.75
WE HAD -507 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 978 CONTRACTS OR 97800 OZ OR 3.046 TONNES
TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 134,728// //very weak
final gold volumes/yesterday 479,420///very strong
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4251 notices 425,100 13.2220 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) out of BRINKS: 32,215.310 oz (1002 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 32,215.310 oz
in tonnes: 1.002 tonnes
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 597 contracts having GAINED 80 contracts. We had 417 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we
gained A HUGE 497 contracts or an additional 49,700 oz will stand for metal at the comex
April lost 20,082 contracts down to 188,733 contracts
May GAINED 39 contracts to stand at 273
We had 444 notice(s) filed today for 44400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 444 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 79 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,251 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR. 597 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 444 x 100 oz per contract equals 440,400 OZ OR 13.698 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of MARCH.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:
No of notices filed so far (4,251 x 100 oz+ 597 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (444)x 100 oz} which equals 440,400 oz standing OR 13.698 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 13.698 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
total pledged gold: 1,765,662.466 OZ 54.919 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,389,813.278 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 10,899, 906.749 (339.03 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,489,907.529OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,134,244 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 284.11 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAR 16/2023// THE MARCH 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
839,548.05 oz CNT Loomis
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
4 CONTRACT(S) (20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
46 contracts (230,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
3010 contracts (15,050,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 0 deposits into the customer account
Total deposits: nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 146.877 million oz/284,105 million =51.74% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals:
i) Out of CNT 244,942.570 oz
ii) Out of Loomis: 614,605.480 oz
Total withdrawals; 839,548.050 oz
adjustments: 4
JPMorgan: removes 9949.380 oz from dealer side
JPMorgan removes 50,722.700 oz from customer side
from Brinks: dealer to customer: 36,887.300 oz
from CNT; dealer to customer: 55,097.04 oz
oz
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.924MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 284.105 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAR/2023 OI: 50 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 36 CONTRACT(S.) WE HAD 35 NOTICES FILED
YESTERDAY, SO WE LOST ONE CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AS THIS GUY WAS E.F.P.’d OVER TO LONDON LOOKING FOR A TINY AMOUNT OF METAL OVER THERE.
April LOST 25 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 359.
May LOST 801 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 90,074.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 4 for 20,000 oz
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3010 x 5,000 oz = 15,050,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(50) and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month: 3010 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (50) – number of notices served upon today (4) x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 15.280 million oz +the 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//new total standing 16.289 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 914.72 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CEENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 473.226MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
On Wednesday, March 8, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) announced a $ 1.8B loss from the sale of investment securities.
Investors and depositors got spooked, withdrawing an estimated $42B+ in cash within a few hours–approx 25% of total SVB deposits, leaving a negative cash balance of $1B by Friday, March 10.
SVB was well known for its links to the Venture Capital (VC) and the Tech industry, with $209B in assets under management (AUM). It failed and went into receivership under the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). SVB was the 16th-largest bank in the United States and was the largest bank by deposits in Silicon Valley.
On Sunday, the contagion out West hit the New York based Signature Bank, which also failed by bank run. The Treasury Department, Federal Reserve (FED) and the FDIC stepped in to calm the waters…
Matthew Piepenburg, Commercial Director at Matterhorn Asset Management, joins Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, to discuss the ongoing Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and what it means for markets, gold, and Fed policy. Topics cover inflation, gold price, de-dollarization, Central Bank Digital Currencies and risk.
Despite years of central bank support and headline-making bailouts, private commercial banks face a myriad of operational and structural risks. MAM had already warned us of such banking risks well before the current crisis made headlines
end
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA AND OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD COMMENTARIES
Jim Rickards….
Jim Rickards: The Fed finally broke something, so keep your eye on gold
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-03-15 13:30Section: Daily Dispatches
By James Rickards Daily Reckoning, Baltimore Tuesday, March 14, 2023
It’s often said that the Fed raises interest rates until something breaks. Well, something has broken.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has really thrown Jay Powell and the Fed for a loop.
Just last week Powell issued some very hawkish testimony before Congress about the need to maintain an aggressive stance against inflation. Markets were even factoring in an 80% chance of a 0.50% rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting.
About time: former Wells Fargo executive faces prison time and a $17 million fine over fake accounts scandal
(Reuters)
Former Wells Fargo executive faces prison, $17 million fine over fake accounts scandal
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-03-15 16:48Section: Daily Dispatches
The U.S. banking system is strong — strongly corrupt.
* * *
By Chris Prentice and Pete Schroeder Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Sunnyvale, California Wednesday, March 15, 2023
WASHINGTON — The former head of Wells Fargo’s retail bank is facing prison time after pleading guilty to obstructing a bank examination in relation to the sweeping phony accounts scandal that roiled the bank in 2016.
Carrie Tolstedt faces up to 16 months in prison under a plea agreement with federal prosecutors filed on Wednesday, as well as a civil penalty of $17 million announced separately by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, who said Tolstedt was “significantly responsible” for the widespread sales abuses at the bank, where potentially millions of accounts were opened without customer approval.
Tolstedt pleaded guilty to one count of obstruction of a bank examination and is expected to make her initial court appearance in Los Angeles in the coming weeks, the Los Angeles U.S. attorney’s office said in a statement. …
Signature Bank execs starred in cringey Broadway-style musical video
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-03-15 17:18Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ariel Zilber New York Post Tuesday, March 14, 2023
Executives at the doomed Signature Bank produced a Broadway-style musical video to launch the firm in the early 2000s — and its song branded the bank “the stupidest idea I ever heard” and even quipped that it could “diminish and fail.”
Clips of the musical number — now dripping with irony after regulators stepped in over the weekend and took control of the New York-based firm in a bid to stave off a US banking crisis — resurfaced online and went viral this week
The video — which then launches into a number touting Signature’s aspirations for solid customer service and safe lending — was posted by Genevieve Roch-Decter, a money manager and Substack blogger.
“Try not to cringe as you watch this,” Roch-Decter tweeted. “Their executive team spent millions of dollars to produce music videos & TV shows about themselves.” …
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: As the economy heads south, gold heads north
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-03-15 20:52Section: Daily Dispatches
By Craig Hemke Sprott Money, Toronto Wednesday, March 15, 2023
The biggest story of 2023 is not a function of IF the Fed will pause and then pivot to rate cuts. Instead, it’s a matter of WHEN will this shift take place. This monetary policy change is coming, and it’s actually much closer than you think.
And, obviously, this is the key to gold prices as the year progresses. As long as the Fed keeps hiking—and is expected to continue hiking—the COMEX gold price is unlikely to sustain any moves to the upside. However, as history has taught us, once the Fed shifts back to easing, the gold price will rally. The question on your mind should be: when will this shift occur? …
Egg Prices Finally Fall After Months Of Non-Stop Price Spikes
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 04:15 AM
While global banks spontaneously combust in the background, at least there’s a sliver of good news for one asset class: eggs, where prices look like they may have finally topped out.
For the first time in 5 months, the price of eggs – driven higher by the world’s worst ever outbreak of bird flu – finally declined last month, falling 6.7%, according to a new report from Bloomberg.
Combined with the prices of oranges and bacon also falling, it’s looking as though Americans once again may be able to afford breakfast. Who would have thought?
Egg prices had skyrocketed due to a shortage of supply that came about due to avian influenza killing tens of millions of birds.
But even despite egg prices topping out, the CPI index for food was still up 0.4% last month, Bloomberg noted. This is down from 0.5% in January, but still represents rising prices due to bread, beef, ham and potatoes all seeing prices continue to rise, along with frozen vegetables.
For the year, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. is estimating commodity inflation of 4% to 6%, the report says. Despite being a mid single digit rise, it is still down from the stunning 18% increase that printed last year.
As prices spiked last year, First Watch and other restaurant groups were more reliant on the spot market to secure supply, helping stoke the demand that kept prices accelerating higher.
END
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
end
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.8985
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.89999
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.42 PTS OR 1.12%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 335.96 PTS OR 1.72 %
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 218.87 PTS OR 0.80%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.07 Euro RISES TO 1.0612 UP 31 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.237!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 132.62/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.231%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.152%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.347…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.232//
3j Gold at $1930.60//silver at: 22.03 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 28/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 76.26//
3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 73 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 132.62/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .237% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9272–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9841well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc. CREDIT SUISSE IN TROUBLE
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.438% DOWN 6 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.634 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9175 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.01…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.369% DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
Well, we warned last night that the euphoria from the “rescue” of Credit Suisse in the form of a CHF50 billion (priming DIP) loan from the ECB would not last long, to wit:
… don’t hold your breath for some breathtaking surge: once the market sees though this rescue for what it is – yet another temporary stop gap measure – it will demand much more, especially after the ECB hikes rates tomorrow which this “band-aid bailout” will allow the Central Bank to do, in the process guaranteeing an even bigger bailout down the line.
It didn’t take long for the market to do just that, because after spiking early at the open with a record 40% gain, Credit Suisse has seen its gains cut in half after banks such as JPM agreed with us: “the SNB liquidity support indicated last night as not enough; CS’s situation “is about ongoing market confidence issues with its IB strategy and ongoing franchise erosion”.
Meanwhile, the bank’s CDS have barely budged, which means that the market is content that the bank has bought some time but the endgame still remains the same.
And so, after opening as much as 2% higher, Europe’s Stoxx 600 has lost all gains, European banks are flat after having risen as much as 3.7% in early trading, and US S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% after trading well in the green for much of the overnight session, amid a renewed selloff in some regional-bank shares, while a looming ECB rate hike (preview here) will only further tighten financial conditions and add to the Credit Suisse instability. The Cboe Volatility Index edged up to 27, well above its long-term average of 20, 10y Yields dropps to 3.43% after rising as high as 3.52% overnight, while the dollar dipped, and gold and bitcoin rose.
In premarket trading, First Republic Bank plunged, dragging down some its regional peers, after saying it’s considering options including a sale. Among other notable moves in premarket trading, Baidu Inc. slumped after the Chinese tech firm unveiled a ChatGPT-like AI chatbot in a pre-recorded video that underwhelmed investors hoping for a stronger and live demonstration. Adobe shares rose 4.9% after the software company boosted its full-year earnings forecast. Analysts were positive about the outlook given the tough macro environment for tech, but they noted that the Figma deal will be an overhang for the stock. Here are other notable premarket movers:
Amyris (AMRS) shares are down 17% after the specialty chemical company gave an outlook and reported fourth-quarter revenue that missed expectations. Piper Sandler writes that the report highlights ongoing challenges for the company.
Block Inc. (SQ) shares are up 2.6% after Mizuho upgraded the digital-payments company to buy from neutral.
First Republic Bank (FRC) shares are slumping in premarket trading on Thursday following a report that the company is weighing options that include a sale. Shares decline 27%.
Foot Locker (FL) is raised to outperform from market perform at Telsey with the sneaker retailer’s shares seen at an attractive level given its growth potential. Shares gain 1.7%.
Progressive Corp. (PGR) gains 0.5% after Wells Fargo double upgrades to overweight from underweight, writing that the insurer has “turned the corner on growth.”
Proterra (PTRA) shares slumped 16% after the electric bus and equipment maker’s results and earnings fell short of expectations, sparking worries over supply chain snags and costs associated with its Powered 1 factory, with Truist analysts also flagging Proterra’s disclosed covenant challenge.
Social media stocks like Snap (SNAP) and Meta (META) were trading higher in US premarket trading as TikTok’s leadership discusses the possibility of separating from its Chinese parent company ByteDance to help address concerns about national security risks. Snap shares are up 7%. Meta shares gain 1.9%.
UiPath (PATH) rose as much as 17% after the software company gave a better-than-expected full-year forecast. Some analysts noted that annualized recurring revenue (ARR) was particularly strong, and Canaccord Genuity raised its recommendation on the stock to buy from hold.
The banking sector turmoil, which kicked off last week after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, has all but erased the S&P 500’s gains so far this year. All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week for clues on whether the central bank will push ahead with previous signals on keeping rates higher for longer or take steps to tone down its hawkish policy.
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that although tight funding conditions could pose a challenge for some individual banks, overall “fears about bank solvency are overdone and most banks retain strong liquidity positions.”
“Recent action by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to guarantee deposits and by the Fed to lend to banks that require funds should solve liquidity-related risks for US banks as well as for US branches of foreign banks,” Haefele wrote in a note to clients. Still, the strategist said he preferred European lenders to US peers.
“ECB policy makers will be grappling with the risk that sticking to the original plan to hike 50 basis points could further undermine confidence,” said Sarah Hewin, head of Europe and Americas research at Standard Chartered Plc. “Not tightening policy could be read by the market as an admission of underlying vulnerabilities.”
“Uncertainty is very high at the moment and there’s a lot of selling because of the shock from higher volatility and other factors,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. “The change in focus from inflation to growth concerns and financial stability has reversed the stock-bond correlation again. A stronger relief rally is not likely to happen before the Fed meeting.”
European stocks erased an early advance and a rally in bank stocks petered out, even as Credit Suisse jumped the most in history at the open after the embattled Swiss lender arranged to borrow as much as 50 billion francs ($54 billion) from a Swiss National Bank liquidity facility; however it has since seen its gain cut in half. Traders are also bracing for the European Central Bank rate decision later Thursday, with more investors now positioning for a 25 basis point move after earlier expectations for double that. European banks are flat after having risen as much as 3.7% in early trading; the Stoxx Banks Index is +0.1% and trimmed year-to-date gains to 2.2%. Here are the most notable European movers:
Credit Suisse shares jump as much as 40%, before paring gains, after the lender tapped the Swiss National Bank for as much as 50 billion francs and offered to repurchase debt. Other European lenders also rebound from Wednesday’s drop, following Credit Suisse. Traders are now looking ahead to today’s ECB decision.
Rentokil shares jump as much as 8.7% after the pest control group’s results topped expectations and it raised its synergy guidance from the acquisition of rival Terminix.
Vitesco shares rise as much as 5.4% after HSBC upgrades the auto- electrification tech supplier to buy from hold on the potential for a re-rating.
TotalEnergies shares rise as much as 2.6% after Couche-Tard agreed to buy a portfolio of gasoline stations in Europe from the French oil firm for €3.1 billion.
MorphoSys gains as much as 13% after the German biotech beat 4Q consensus estimates, with Morgan Stanley noting the beat was supported by a $23 million payment from Novartis.
Deliveroo shares drop as much as 4% after the food delivery firm predicted gross transaction value to increase by low- to mid-single-digit this year, a slowdown from last year.
Burford Capital sinks as much as 23% after the litigation financing group said Wednesday that it’s been talking to the US SEC about the fair value of legal finance assets.
Grand City Properties shares fall as much as 14%, the mosts intraday on record, after the real estate company decided not to recommend a dividend payment for 2022.
Earlier in the session, stocks fell across the Asia Pacific region as concerns over Credit Suisse triggered a renewed selloff in financial stocks, while benchmarks in India and the Philippines flirted with corrections. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.3% in a broad selloff, with financials among the biggest drags. Key gauges fell more than 1% in Hong Kong, Japan and Australia. The Philippine stock gauge narrowly avoided a 10% decline from a recent high, while India stocks reversed an initial drop. Banks resumed declines after Wednesday’s rebound as Credit Suisse’s 24% plunge overnight compounded concerns sparked by the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Energy and materials were the biggest sectoral decliners in Asia on Thursday.
“We’ve been paring down our Asia equity exposure due to contagion risks,” even though the Asian banking system is fundamentally sound, said Kerry Goh, chief investment officer at Kamet Capital Partners. “We’ve been asking clients to buy Treasuries and money-market funds.” The MSCI Asia gauge is down more than 9% from a peak in late January, as failures in the US banking system have added to worries on rising interest rates and recession risks. Traders will turn to the European Central Bank’s policy decision and commentary later Thursday for further cues. Heightened market volatility from recent developments and an uncertain outlook on Fed rates could fuel demand for hedging solutions in Asia Pacific across various asset classes, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Sharnie Wong wrote in a note.
Japanese equities fell, following US peers lower, as turmoil at Credit Suisse exacerbated concerns over financials and the yen strengthened. The Topix fell 1.2% to close at 1,937.10, while the Nikkei declined 0.8% to 27,010.61. The yen extended gains to a second day, to around 132.8 per dollar. Mitsui & Co. contributed the most to the Topix decline, decreasing 5%. Out of 2,159 stocks in the index, 276 rose and 1,833 fell, while 50 were unchanged. “The collapse of SVB and the large share price drop of Credit Suisse Group have heightened the sense of uncertainty in the banking sector and made investors turn risk averse,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a strategist at Invesco Asset Management Japan.
Australian stocks also declined; the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.5% to close at 6,965.50, dragged by weakness in mining stocks and banks. Equities dropped across the Asia Pacific region as concerns over Credit Suisse triggered a renewed selloff in financial stocks. Australian employment growth easily surpassed expectations in February, sending the jobless rate lower and underscoring the economy’s resilience to the most aggressive policy tightening cycle in a generation. Meanwhile, wagers that the Reserve Bank’s tightening campaign may be nearing the end are helping shares of Australian lenders outperform some overseas peers amid banking-sector concerns. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.7% to 11,699.02.
In FX, the Dollar Index is down 0.1%. The New Zealand dollar is the weakest among the G-10’s while the Australian dollar and Swiss franc outperform. The euro recovered from a two-month low. The Swiss franc strengthened after a sharp selloff Wednesday, while the euro recovered from a two-month low ahead of the expected rate increase from the ECB later
Treasuries were mixed, with the two-year yield back to 4% during London session after historically steep declines in recent days. The 10-year yield was little changed. Bonds across Europe declined, with the German 10-year yield up 17 basis points. US 2-year cheaper on day by ~7bp with long-maturity yields little changed, flattening 2s10s; 10-year ~3.45%, within 1bp of Wednesday’s close. Bonds across Europe declined, with the German 10-year yield up 15 basis points to 2.28%; markets are pricing a 60% chance of a 50 basis-point hike. Ongoing leadership from bunds is anticipated with ECB rate decision at 9:15am New York time. Fed hike premium eases back into swaps following risk-on European move, with 20bp of hikes implied by the March OIS, up from 13bp at Wednesday’s close
In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI rising 0.8% to trade near $68.20. Spot gold is little changed around $1,919. Bitcoin gains 2.5%.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight on the calendar will be the ECB’s monetary policy decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. On the data side, US releases will include the weekly initial jobless claims, February’s housing starts and building permits, and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for March. In the US, Treasury Secretary Yellen will be appearing before the Senate Finance Committee. Finally, earnings releases include FedEx and Dollar General.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,900.50
MXAP down 1.0% to 155.12
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 498.60
Nikkei down 0.8% to 27,010.61
Topix down 1.2% to 1,937.10
Hang Seng Index down 1.7% to 19,203.91
Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 3,226.89
Sensex little changed at 57,556.46
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5% to 6,965.54
Kospi little changed at 2,377.91
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 440.38
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.23%
Euro up 0.4% to $1.0623
Brent Futures up 1.2% to $74.54/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,918.81
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.34% to 104.29
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Credit Suisse Group AG sought to arrest a collapse in investor confidence Thursday by opening a 50 billion Swiss franc credit line with the country’s central bank and offering to buy back debt, as executives and government officials plot the next steps for the troubled lender: BBG
The European Central Bank’s plan to raise interest rates by another half-point on Thursday has been thrown into question by banking turmoil: BBG
Bonds slid as concerns over the banking system receded and as traders braced for a decision by the European Central Bank: BBG
The Federal Reserve’s emergency loan program may inject as much as $2 trillion of funds into the US banking system and ease the liquidity crunch, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co: BBG
China’s holdings of US government bonds hit a 13-year low at the beginning of the year amid American interest rate increases and growing tensions between the world’s two largest economies, data released on Wednesday showed. Chinese holdings of United States Treasury securities slid to US$859.4 billion in January, declining for the sixth straight month and marking their lowest point since May 2009. SCMP
Today’s ECB decision offers the first indication of what the banking blowup means for monetary policy. Its plan to raise rates by 50 bps has been thrown into question, with investors paring bets closer to 25 bps. Officials will also consider fresh economic forecasts that are set to show headline inflation receding faster than previously, even as underlying price gains prove stickier. BBG
Credit Suisse surged the most on record after getting a $54 billion lifeline loan from the Swiss central bank. It also plans to buy back $3.2 billion worth of debt. Shareholder Saudi National Bank said the panic was “completely unwarranted.” BBG
Europe’s financial regulators are furious at the handling of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, privately accusing US authorities of tearing up a rule book for failed banks that they had helped to write. While the disapproval has yet to be conveyed in a formal setting, some of the region’s top policymakers are seething over the decision to cover all depositors at SVB, fearing it will undermine a globally agreed regime. FT
Fears of a recession are growing on Wall Street, as stress in the banking sector following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and worries over the fate of Credit Suisse darken the outlook for the economy and markets. RTRS
Russia’s oil income is being significantly curtailed because of Western sanctions without global energy supplies being materially impacted. WSJ
There are some signs of increased pressure within US dollar funding markets as fears grow around the outlook for the banks and the turmoil drives lenders to shore up their own cash buffers. BBG
We are raising our subjective probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months by 10pp to 35%, reflecting increased near-term uncertainty around the economic effects of small bank stress. GIR
First Republic Bank is said to be exploring strategic options including a sale. The FDIC asked banks interested in acquiring SVB and Signature Bank to submit bids by tomorrow, Reuters reported. The FDIC may not be willing to sell SVB’s $74 billion loan book at a desirable price, a potential letdown for PE giants. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were mostly lower as the region followed suit to the losses in global peers after the recent Credit Suisse turmoil added to the ongoing banking sector fears. However, the major indices were off worse levels and US equity futures nursed some of the prior day’s losses after Swiss authorities attempted to soothe market concerns and Credit Suisse later announced it will take decisive action to strengthen its liquidity including borrowing up to CHF 50bln from the central bank. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in financials and underperformance of the commodity-related sectors with energy stocks hit after oil prices slumped to their lowest in more than a year, although the index finished off its lows after the stronger-than-expected employment data. Nikkei 225 retreated below the 27,000 level for the first time since January amid the banking sector jitters and geopolitical concerns after North Korea fired a suspected ICBM ahead of a leadership summit between Japan and South Korea. However, Japanese stocks clawed back some of their losses as participants also digested mixed data releases in which Machinery Orders topped forecast with a surprise expansion Y/Y, while Exports growth missed but still accelerated from the prior month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood amid frictions with the US which threatened to ban TikTok if its Chinese founder doesn’t sell an ownership stake, although the downside was stemmed in the mainland after the central bank’s continued liquidity efforts.
Top Asian News
China’s securities regulator reportedly paused the approvals for new GDR sales amid concerns that China’s A-share market could be pressured, according to Bloomberg.
US threatened to ban TikTok if its Chinese founder doesn’t sell ownership stake, while TikTok said the forced sale won’t resolve national security issues, according to WSJ.
China’s Commerce Ministry, when asked if restrictions on the import of Australian coal have been removed, says they can apply for coal import licences normally.
European bourses are bolstered amid as the region reacts to liquidity support for Credit Suisse (+18%), Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, though the tone is tentative pre-ECB. As such, banking names are the standout outperformer, SX7P (+1.5%) albeit with someway to go to recoup the week’s pressure. Stateside, futures are mixed and near unchanged levels overall with banking names leading the pre-market upside, though the European-related reporting does return focus back to the US’ own concerns.
Top European News
BoE held emergency talks with international counterparts on Wednesday night as the crisis deepened at Credit Suisse, according to The Telegraph.
UK DMO Chief said global financial markets are pretty stressed and volatile, while it was noted that the UK’s 2023/24 financing needs are a very large amount of money and that the auction plan is designed to avoid too much stress on primary dealers. DMO chief added that the focus on short-dated gilt issuance reflects the need to limit investors’ duration risk and to raise cash at auctions.
Norges Bank Regional Network Report: Developments are slightly stronger than contacts expected in the previous survey, but there is considerable variation across sectors.
Latest Credit Suisse notes
Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) announced decisive action to pre-emptively strengthen liquidity which included public tender offers for debt securities and it intends to borrow up to CHF 50bln from the SNB under the covered loan facility and short-term liquidity facility. Furthermore, Credit Suisse International is to repurchase certain OpCo senior debt securities for cash of up to about CHF 3bln, while the bank noted that the additional liquidity would support its core businesses and clients.
FINMA and the SNB asserted that the problems of certain banks in the USA do not pose a direct risk of contagion for Swiss financial markets, while they added that Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks and if necessary, the SNB will provide Credit Suisse with liquidity.
SNB confirms it will provide liquidity to Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) against sufficient collateral; says that within its mandate, it can provide liquidity to domestic banks against collateral.
Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) launches a tender offer for EUR-denominated notes due 2023 and 2024, offers to repurchase up to EUR 500mln EURO notes, via a memo; launches tender offer for 10 USD-denominated notes and will repurchase up to USD 2.5bln in notes.
Several Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) Asian equity managers are said to be leaving the firm, according to Bloomberg.
US bank giants reportedly cut direct exposure to Credit Suisse for months, according to Bloomberg.
BNP Paribas (BNP FP) is reportedly reducing exposure to Credit Suisse, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
JP Morgan (JPM), on Credit Suisse (CSGN SW), says a takeover is the most likely scenario, especially by UBS (USBG SW); JP Morgan (JPM) maintains its overweight on Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) bonds, believes the announced measures will buy CS time to execute the restructuring.
Spanish banks exposure to Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) is below EUR 1bln, via Reuters citing sources.
FX
The USD is softer on the session, with the index at the mid-point of 104.20-104.70 parameters with G10 peers mostly firmer across the board.
CHF is the outperformer as the SNB/FINMA commitment to provide Credit Suisse with liquidity and subsequent measures by the Co. have supported sentiment after Wednesday’s pressure; USD/CHF at the lower-end of 0.9343-0.9231 ranges.
EUR/USD has surmounted 1.06 ahead of the ECB given the above Swiss action restores some conviction in the ECB tightening, albeit market pricing is evenly split between 25bp and 50bp.
Kiwi is the sole G10 laggard given soft Q4 data overnight and dovish revisions from ASB on the RBNZ in the wake of this release; USD/NZD below 0.6150 from an earlier 0.6191 peak.
JPY retains an underlying bid despite the easing in haven demand, perhaps given overnight data, while SEK and NOK are firmer/softer amid regional inflation and survey updates.
Fixed Income
Core benchmarks remain under pressure having unwound much of earlier have premium; albeit, both USTs and EGBs remains well within mid-week ranges.
Specifically, Bunds are holding around 136.000 within 135.73-137.19 parameters, USTs just below 115.00 in 114.26-115.19 ahead of the US data before (given clock changes) the ECB decision and Lagarde’s press conference.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are deriving support from the softer USD after yesterday’s near USD 4/bbl lower settlement, though as outlined above the tone is tentative going into the sessions risk events.
Gas prices are mixed once again, though the magnitude of action is contained.
G7 opposes lowering the Russian oil price cap from USD 60/bbl, according to WSJ
Metals are now mostly positive on the session, given the USD action, with spot gold comfortably above USD 1900/oz and LME Copper holding near USD 8.5k/T.
Geopolitics
France is accused of delaying the EU’s EUR 2bln plan to replenish Ukraine’s artillery shell stocks, according to The Telegraph. In relevant news, Israel approved export licences for the sale of anti-drone systems to Ukraine which could be used to counter Iranian drones used by Russia, according to Nexta.
Russian Defence Minister said US drone flights near Crimea are provocative and could provoke escalation. It was also reported that the US and Russian defence ministers held a phone call which was initiated by the US, according to Interfax.
North Korea fired a missile which was likely an ICBM type and South Korea’s military said North Korea’s series of missile launches are against UN resolutions. Furthermore, South Korean President Yoon ordered the military to thoroughly carry out joint drills with the US and maintain readiness against North Korean threats, while he said North Korea will pay the price for reckless provocations and called for strengthening security cooperation with the US and Japan, according to Reuters.
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it told Honduras many times that Taiwan is willing to help in its development and it repeatedly reminded Honduras to pay attention to China’s false promises. It was also reported that the US State Department said they will continue to monitor the next steps closely regarding Honduras seeking official ties with China and that the Honduran government should be aware that China makes many promises that are unfulfilled
Indian Army Cheetah helicopter has crashed near Mandala hills area of Arunachal Pradesh. Search operation for the pilots has started. More details awaited, according to army sources cited by ANI.
Iran has agreed to halt military support for Yemen’s Houthis rebels as part of the Iran-Saudi deal, according to WSJ.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Feb. Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.2%
Import Price Index YoY, est. -1.1%, prior 0.8%
Export Price Index YoY, prior 2.3%
Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.3%, prior 0.8%
08:30: March New York Fed Services Business, prior -12.8
08:30: March Initial Jobless Claims, est. 205,000, prior 211,000
March Continuing Claims, est. 1.72m, prior 1.72m
08:30: Feb. Building Permits, est. 1.34m, prior 1.34m
Feb. Building Permits MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
Feb. Housing Starts, est. 1.31m, prior 1.31m
Feb. Housing Starts MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -4.5%
08:30: March Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. -15.0, prior -24.3
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Yesterday was a day to look at screens and really wonder what as a research analyst you can really say that helps anyone. The situation is fairly binary and you, alongside all the financial markets, are not privy to any of the conversations behind the scenes. In short, Credit Suisse shares fell another -24.24% yesterday, marking its 8th consecutive daily decline (cumulative loss -39.04%) and taking the share price down to an all-time low. Shortly past midnight however, the news came through that Credit Suisse was going to borrow as much as 50bn francs from a Swiss National Bank liquidity facility, and would also be repurchasing certain OpCo senior debt securities of up to 3bn francs. That’s left futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 up by +2.34% this morning, following the index’s -3.46% loss the previous day. We’ll have to see if this will be enough to calm the market, but things are looking more positive than they did at the time of the European close yesterday, with the Euro itself also up from a low of $1.052 yesterday afternoon to $1.061 this morning. Asian equities are still lower, with the Nikkei (-0.90%), CSI 300 (-0.73%) and the Hang Seng (-1.56%) posting losses, but thus far we’re avoiding the larger-scale declines witnessed in Europe and the US.
That news from Credit Suisse overnight has come on the back of an incredibly turbulent 24 hours in markets. It began after the Chairman of Credit Suisse’s top shareholder, the Saudi National Bank, ruling out investing more in the company in a Bloomberg interview yesterday morning. In turn, that triggered a massive slump in Credit Suisse’s shares, which fell as much as -30.80% intraday before closing at -24.24%. After the European close however, we saw their American Depositary Receipt rally +15.3% after the Swiss National Bank said in a statement that they would offer a liquidity backstop if needed. That followed speculation throughout the day as to whether there might be an official announcement, particularly after the FT reported that Credit Suisse had asked the Swiss National Bank for a public show of support.
All that came after some major stress in the credit market, with Credit Suisse’s 1yr CDS trading above 3000bps, and the 5yr CDS up +308.6bps to 842.5bps at the European close. Senior cash bonds maturing in just over 5 years settled in the €72 range and AT1s around $34.5. So the bond market was indicating a distressed issuer. After the SNB statement, the USD Credit Suisse bonds that mature in 2033 rallied $15 or so from $70 near the European close to finish yesterday around $85.
Given the various announcements last night, it does look for the time being that risk markets have stabilised. The S&P 500 was down by -2.10% at its lows of the day – just after the European close – before recovering on headlines that the big US banks had little exposure to CS, and then jumping higher on the news that the SNB would step in to help CS if there was a liquidity event. That “only” left the index down -0.70% and near its highs for the day, and this morning its futures are up a further +0.39%. In fact, the bounce in risk sentiment and lower yields meant that tech stocks outperformed yesterday with the Nasdaq closing in positive territory (+0.05%). A heroic performance.
Even with this bounceback later in the session, US banks were still a big underperformer with the KBW banks index down -3.56% and the majors like JPM (-4.72%) and Citi (-5.44%) seeing notable losses. Regionals underperformed again with First Republic Bank down -21.37% on the day with the selloff taking another leg lower after the bank’s bonds were downgraded from A- to BB+ by S&P.
Earlier, the STOXX Banks index fell -8.40% on the day, marking its worst performance since March 2020 at the height of the Covid selloff, whilst there were even larger losses for Société Générale (-12.18%) and BNP Paribas (-10.11%).
Ahead of today’s unfortunately timed ECB meeting, the continent’s sovereign bonds witnessed an epic rally across multiple countries, and Germany’s 2yr (-48.3bps) and 10yr (-29.0bps) yields saw their biggest daily declines in data going back to reunification in 1990. In France, the 10yr yield (-24.9bps) had its biggest move lower since December 2011, and the Dutch 10yr yield (-27.7bps) was another to see the biggest decline in available data back to 1999. Those concerns further led to a massive decline in the Euro itself, which had its largest daily decline against the US Dollar (-1.56%) since the height of the pandemic-related market turmoil in March 2020.
It was a wild 24 hours for central bank pricing but since Credit Suisse’s announcement shortly after midnight, there’s been a bit more confidence that the Fed might follow through with a 25bp move at the next meeting. For instance, the hike priced in has gone from 11.8bps at the close last night to 15.5bps this morning, indicating a 62% chance of a move. Investors are also pricing in more rate cuts for the remainder of the year, with the implied rate for the December meeting coming down another -49bps yesterday to 3.75%, and having traded as low as 3.4% intra-day, although again that’s up +10bps overnight following the more positive tone more broadly. Those collective moves prompted an astonishing sovereign bond rally, with the 10yr Treasury yield (-23.4bps) at one point being down as much as 34bps intraday, before closing down -23.4bps, and this morning yields are up a further +2.6bps to 3.48%. Meanwhile the 2yr yield was down -36.3bps to 3.887%, taking it back to a level we haven’t seen since September, with a bounce of +6.3bps this morning.
Against this backdrop of instability, we now arrive at a rather unpredictable ECB decision today. At the last meeting in February, the Governing Council’s statement pre-committed to a 50bps hike at this meeting, and it was widely expected they’d follow through until the SVB collapse. But in light of the market turmoil, investors have reassessed the likelihood of a 50bps move, and see a smaller 25bps hike as the more likely option, even after the overnight headlines. For instance, overnight index swaps are now pricing in a 28.6bps hike today, which implies just an 14.5% chance they’ll go for the 50bps option. Our European economists share the view that a 25bp hike today seems more likely than the intended 50bp hike, given that we have a global financial shock of uncertain size and duration playing out. You can read their latest thoughts on today’s meeting here
Given the global risk-off moves, yesterday brought a major slump in commodities, with both Brent Crude and WTI oil prices falling to levels last seen back in December 2021, at $73.69/bbl and $67.61/bbl respectively. At the same time, the key industrial bellwether of copper fell -3.84% to a 2-month low of its own. The moves also follow data on US producer prices in February that came beneath expectations, with headline PPI falling -0.1% on the month (vs. +0.3% expected), which took the year-on-year measure down to +4.6% (vs. +5.4% expected).
Here in the UK, the government’s Spring Budget received rather less attention than usual given the instability in global markets. Nevertheless, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt used the opportunity to outline a variety of reforms to the tax and benefit system designed to encourage growth. That included fresh support for childcare, with 30 hours free childcare for children over nine months. He also removed various barriers to work, including a more generous tax treatment of pensions designed to keep workers (and doctors in particular) in the labour market. Otherwise, the government announced that the current support for energy bills would be extended for a further 3 months, whilst the independent OBR predicted that the UK would avoid a technical recession this year (two consecutive quarterly contractions), even if the full-year contraction for 2023 would still be -0.2%.
Finally, looking at yesterday’s other data, US retail sales contracted by -0.4% in February as expected. However, the Empire State manufacturing survey for March fell by more than expected to -24.6 (vs. -7.9 expected). In the meantime, there was further evidence that housing activity had bottomed out, with the NAHB’s housing market index up to 44 in March (vs. 40 expected), thus marking its third consecutive monthly advance.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight on the calendar will be the ECB’s monetary policy decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. On the data side, US releases will include the weekly initial jobless claims, February’s housing starts and building permits, and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for March. In the US, Treasury Secretary Yellen will be appearing before the Senate Finance Committee. Finally, earnings releases include FedEx and Dollar General.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Credit Suisse to borrow from the SNB; ECB & US data ahead – Newsquawk Euro Market Open
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 02:48 AM
APAC stocks were mostly lower, following global peers after Credit Suisse turmoil yesterday.
Swiss National Bank (SNB) and FINMA to provide liquidity to Credit Suisse if necessary.
US bank giants reportedly reduced direct exposure to Credit Suisse for months.
European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +2.0% after the cash market closed down 3.5% on Wednesday.
DXY is a touch softer and below the 104.50 mark, JPY and CHF lead the majors, NZD lags.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Export/Import Prices, IJC, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference, Supply from Spain & France.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were mostly lower amid further stress in the banking sector as the outlook for Credit Suisse deteriorated and with the global risk-off mood sparked during European trade after its largest shareholder Saudi National Bank said it would not be providing any more assistance to the bank which slammed shares to record lows and weighed on the sector. However, stocks eventually bounced off their lows in late US trade after the SNB and FINMA announced they would provide liquidity to the bank if needed. Nonetheless, the fears saw another jaw-dropping rip higher in government bonds amid haven flows, while the tech sector was just about kept afloat on the lower yield environment.
SPX -0.70% at 3,892, NDX +0.42% at 12,251, DJIA -0.87% at 31,875, RUT -1.74% at 1,746.
Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) announced decisive action to pre-emptively strengthen liquidity which included public tender offers for debt securities and it intends to borrow up to CHF 50bln from the SNB under the covered loan facility and short-term liquidity facility. Furthermore, Credit Suisse International is to repurchase certain OpCo senior debt securities for cash of up to about CHF 3bln, while the bank noted that the additional liquidity would support its core businesses and clients.
FINMA and the SNB asserted that the problems of certain banks in the USA do not pose a direct risk of contagion for Swiss financial markets, while they added that Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks and if necessary, the SNB will provide Credit Suisse with liquidity.
US bank giants reportedly cut direct exposure to Credit Suisse for months, according to Bloomberg.
BNP Paribas (BNP FP) is reportedly reducing exposure to Credit Suisse, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Fed is to launch FedNow instant payments system in July and provided details on the preparation.
US OCC is engaging in heightened monitoring of national banks and is coordinating with other regulators.
US government will likely only sell SVB to another bank, ruling out PE and VC firms that had been looking at a potential bid, according to The Information citing sources.
SVB Financial (SIVB) is reportedly exploring a bankruptcy filing as one option for asset sales, according to Reuters sources. It was also reported that senior banking executives at JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo (JPM, C, BAC, WFC) said the chances are still low that any of them will buy SVB Financial (SIVB), according to FBN citing sources.
FBN’s Gasparino noted that bankers and analysts say its possible First Republic (FRC) buyer could be JPMorgan (JPM) because it is closely aligned and provides the warehousing for First Republics loans.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region followed suit to the losses in global peers after the recent Credit Suisse turmoil added to the ongoing banking sector fears. However, the major indices were off worse levels and US equity futures nursed some of the prior day’s losses after Swiss authorities attempted to soothe market concerns and Credit Suisse later announced it will take decisive action to strengthen its liquidity including borrowing up to CHF 50bln from the central bank.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in financials and underperformance of the commodity-related sectors with energy stocks hit after oil prices slumped to their lowest in more than a year, although the index finished off its lows after the stronger-than-expected employment data.
Nikkei 225 retreated below the 27,000 level for the first time since January amid the banking sector jitters and geopolitical concerns after North Korea fired a suspected ICBM ahead of a leadership summit between Japan and South Korea. However, Japanese stocks clawed back some of their losses as participants also digested mixed data releases in which Machinery Orders topped forecast with a surprise expansion Y/Y, while Exports growth missed but still accelerated from the prior month.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood amid frictions with the US which threatened to ban TikTok if its Chinese founder doesn’t sell an ownership stake, although the downside was stemmed in the mainland after the central bank’s continued liquidity efforts.
US equity futures (ES +0.4%) were mildly supported following Credit Suisse’s announcement to shore up its liquidity, while the attention stateside turns to data again including the latest jobless claims.
European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +2.0% after the cash market closed down 3.5% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY eventually softened and retraced some of the prior day’s advances with the index lingering just below the 104.50 mark.
EUR/USD nursed some of its recent losses and reclaimed the 1.0600 handle with some reprieve from the SNB’s attempt to quell Credit Suisse jitters, while the attention now turns to the ECB policy meeting.
GBP/USD marginally rebounded in quiet trade after a lack of fireworks from the Budget as many of the details were flagged beforehand, while the BoE held emergency talks amid the Credit Suisse crisis.
USD/JPY was subdued with recent strength in the JPY helped by haven flows and yield differentials.
Antipodeans were choppy with AUD/USD eventually gaining after a rebound in employment, while NZD/USD was contained by disappointing GDP data which showed the economy contracted by 0.6% Q/Q.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9149 vs exp. 6.9173 (prev. 6.8680)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures marginally pulled back from the recent bull-steepening that was triggered as the Credit Suisse turmoil stoked global banking sector jitters, while the mild retracements were seen after prices hit resistance near 116.00 and following Credit Suisse’s announcement to strengthen its liquidity.
Bund futures eased off Wednesday’s peak as the attention turns to the ECB policy decision.
10yr JGB futures gradually pared some of their gains, while the latest 20yr auction results were mixed with a lower bid-to-cover offset by firmer accepted prices.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were in recovery mode after tumbling alongside risk assets this week and following a breakdown of multi-month ranges to their lowest levels since late 2021.
G7 opposes lowering the Russian oil price cap from USD 60/bbl, according to WSJ
Spot gold partially faded the recent haven advances but remained above USD 1900/oz.
Copper futures found some slight reprieve overnight although have far to go to reclaim the prior day’s heavy losses which coincided with the Credit Suisse turmoil and banking sector woes.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was choppy with prices subdued after they hit resistance at the USD 24,500 level.
Circle said it cleared all the backlog of minting and redemption requests for USDC as of March 15th, while it had redeemed USD 3.8bln of USDC and minted USD 0.8bln of USDC since Monday.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s securities regulator reportedly paused the approvals for new GDR sales amid concerns that China’s A-share market could be pressured, according to Bloomberg.
US threatened to ban TikTok if its Chinese founder doesn’t sell ownership stake, while TikTok said the forced sale won’t resolve national security issues, according to WSJ.
DATA RECAP
Chinese China House Prices YY* (Feb) -1.2% (Prev. -1.5%)
Japanese Trade Balance (JPY)(Feb) -898B vs. Exp. -1069B (Prev. -3497B, Rev. -3499B)
Japanese Imports YY (Feb) 8.3% vs. Exp. 12.2% (Prev. 17.8%, Rev. 17.5%)
Japanese Exports YY (Feb) 6.5% vs. Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 3.5%)
Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Jan) 9.5% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.6%, Rev. 0.3%)
Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Jan) 4.5% vs. Exp. -3.5% (Prev. -6.6%)
Australian Employment (Feb) 64.6k vs. Exp. 48.5k (Prev. -11.5k)
Australian Unemployment Rate (Feb) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.7%)
Australian Full-Time Employment (Feb) 74.9k (Prev. -43.3k)
New Zealand GDP Prod Based QQ (Q4) -0.6% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 2.0%, Rev. 1.7%)
New Zealand GDP Prod Based YY (Q4) 2.2% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 6.4%)
GEOPOLITICS
France is accused of delaying the EU’s EUR 2bln plan to replenish Ukraine’s artillery shell stocks, according to The Telegraph. In relevant news, Israel approved export licences for the sale of anti-drone systems to Ukraine which could be used to counter Iranian drones used by Russia, according to Nexta.
Russian Defence Minister said US drone flights near Crimea are provocative and could provoke escalation. It was also reported that the US and Russian defence ministers held a phone call which was initiated by the US, according to Interfax.
North Korea fired a missile which was likely an ICBM type and South Korea’s military said North Korea’s series of missile launches are against UN resolutions. Furthermore, South Korean President Yoon ordered the military to thoroughly carry out joint drills with the US and maintain readiness against North Korean threats, while he said North Korea will pay the price for reckless provocations and called for strengthening security cooperation with the US and Japan, according to Reuters.
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it told Honduras many times that Taiwan is willing to help in its development and it repeatedly reminded Honduras to pay attention to China’s false promises. It was also reported that the US State Department said they will continue to monitor the next steps closely regarding Honduras seeking official ties with China and that the Honduran government should be aware that China makes many promises that are unfulfilled
EU/UK
BoE held emergency talks with international counterparts on Wednesday night as the crisis deepened at Credit Suisse, according to The Telegraph.
UK DMO Chief said global financial markets are pretty stressed and volatile, while it was noted that the UK’s 2023/24 financing needs are a very large amount of money and that the auction plan is designed to avoid too much stress on primary dealers. DMO chief added that the focus on short-dated gilt issuance reflects the need to limit investors’ duration risk and to raise cash at auctions.
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.42 PTS OR 1.12% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 335.76 PTS OR 1.72% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 218.87 PTS OR 0.80% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.52% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.8985//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.89999// /Oil DOWN TO 67.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 73.85 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
END
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3c CHINA /
CHINA///
end
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
ECB
ECB raises rates by 50 basis points but are ready to respond with a credit event occurs
(zerohedge)
ECB Hikes 50bps, Is “Ready To Respond To Preserve Price And Financial Stability”
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 09:21 AM
With BBG publishing an unexpected CYA trial balloon just 30 minutes before the ECB announcement, according to which ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos told finance ministers on Tuesday that “some European Union banks could be vulnerable to rising interest rates“, and which sent expectations of a 50bps rate hike to just 35% from 60% earlier, it would have provided the central bank with the needed cover to hike less than most had expected.
However, it was not meant to happen, and moments ago the European Central Bank hiked 50bps as it guided last time, in the process assuring that Europe’s banking crisis would get even worse before (if) it gets better.
Saying that “Inflation is projected to remain too high for too long”, the Governing Council today “decided to increase the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with its determination to ensure the timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target.” The ECB cited that “the elevated level of uncertainty reinforces the importance of a data-dependent approach to the Governing Council’s policy rate decisions, which will be determined by its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.”
That said, the ECB was quick to note that “the Governing Council is monitoring current market tensions closely and stands ready to respond as necessary to preserve price stability and financial stability in the euro area.”
It also said that “the euro area banking sector is resilient, with strong capital and liquidity positions” and added that “the ECB’s policy toolkit is fully equipped to provide liquidity support to the euro area financial system if needed and to preserve the smooth transmission of monetary policy.”
Looking ahead, the ECB shared the following forecasts:
HICP Inflation Forecast:
2023: 5.3% (prev. 6.3%)
2024: 2.9% (prev. 3.4%)
2025: 2.1% (prev. 2.3%)
GDP Growth projections:
2023: 1.0% (prev. 0.5%)
2024: 1.6% (prev 1.9%)
2025: 1.6% (prev. 1.8%)
But noted that that…
new macroeconomic projections were finalised in early March, before the recent emergence of financial market tensions.
These market tensions imply additional uncertainty around the baseline assessments of inflation and growth.
Prior to these latest developments, the baseline path for headline inflation had already been revised down, mainly owing to a smaller contribution from energy prices than previously expected.
But perhaps most importantly, the ECB refrained from providing any guidance and refrained from signaling any future rate hikes in the statement, something it had done previously.
The market was not happy with the ECB’s hawkish announcement, with the Euro sliding despite the hawkish decision – as it assures most bank stress…
… while the Stoxx 600 Banks index extended a drop to 1% after the ECB decision, and spoos promptly dropping to session lows and were last trading below 3900.
Inflation is projected to remain too high for too long. Therefore, the Governing Council today decided to increase the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with its determination to ensure the timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target. The elevated level of uncertainty reinforces the importance of a data-dependent approach to the Governing Council’s policy rate decisions, which will be determined by its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
The Governing Council is monitoring current market tensions closely and stands ready to respond as necessary to preserve price stability and financial stability in the euro area. The euro area banking sector is resilient, with strong capital and liquidity positions. In any case, the ECB’s policy toolkit is fully equipped to provide liquidity support to the euro area financial system if needed and to preserve the smooth transmission of monetary policy.
The new ECB staff macroeconomic projections were finalised in early March before the recent emergence of financial market tensions. As such, these tensions imply additional uncertainty around the baseline assessments of inflation and growth. Prior to these latest developments, the baseline path for headline inflation had already been revised down, mainly owing to a smaller contribution from energy prices than previously expected. ECB staff now see inflation averaging 5.3% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. At the same time, underlying price pressures remain strong. Inflation excluding energy and food continued to increase in February and ECB staff expect it to average 4.6% in 2023, which is higher than foreseen in the December projections. Subsequently, it is projected to come down to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, as the upward pressures from past supply shocks and the reopening of the economy fade out and as tighter monetary policy increasingly dampens demand.
The baseline projections for growth in 2023 have been revised up to an average of 1.0% as a result of both the decline in energy prices and the economy’s greater resilience to the challenging international environment. ECB staff then expect growth to pick up further, to 1.6%, in both 2024 and 2025, underpinned by a robust labour market, improving confidence and a recovery in real incomes. At the same time, the pick-up in growth in 2024 and 2025 is weaker than projected in December, owing to the tightening of monetary policy.
Key ECB interest rates
The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 3.50%, 3.75% and 3.00% respectively, with effect from 22 March 2023.
Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) The APP portfolio is declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem does not reinvest all of the principal payments from maturing securities. The decline will amount to €15 billion per month on average until the end of June 2023 and its subsequent pace will be determined over time.
As concerns the PEPP, the Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.
The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.
Refinancing operations
As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations are contributing to its monetary policy stance.
***
The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. The ECB’s policy toolkit is fully equipped to provide liquidity support to the euro area financial system if needed. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.
The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.
END
ECB warns that some EU banks may be vulnerable
(zerohedge)
‘Some EU Banks May Be Vulnerable’ – ECB Tells Ministers ‘No Room For Complacency’
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 08:56 AM
The world was saved there briefly overnight after SNB’s giant liquidity shot into CS.
But it didn’t take long fort reality to sink in about the band-aid-like nature of this facility.
However, the situation under the hood may in fact be worse than some thought as Bloomberg reports, according to people familiar with the talks, that ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos told finance ministers on Tuesday that some European Union banks could be vulnerable to rising interest rates.
Guindos said that the ECB couldn’t rule out that some lenders might be at risk because of their business models, according to the people.
The market did not like that reality check with European IG credit spreads now above yesterday’s highs…
Guindos also cautioned not to be complacent and warned that a lack of confidence could trigger contagion.
Touching on a likely key theme of Thursday’s rate decision, Guindos highlighted the potential conflict between the ECB’s mission to bring down inflation and potential damage to some financial institutions from higher interest rates.
And after that headline on bank vulnerability, the odds of a 50bps hike today have tumbled…
What will Christine do?
end
GERMANY
Germany’s conservative AFd overtakes the Green party in popularity
(Cody/Remix)
Germany’s Conservative AfD Overtakes Green Party For First Time In 4 Years
As the Green Party’s fortunes sink, the fortunes of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party rise, with the AfD now polling ahead of the Greens for the first time since 2018 in two separate surveys.
In a survey from YouGov, the AfD jumped to 17 percent, while the Greens were one point behind at 16 percent.
In a separate Insa survey commissioned by Bild newspaper, AfD is polling at 16 percent and the Green Party at 15.5 percent.
Polling from multiple surveys has shown that the Greens have been losing support for months while the AfD gains.
In July last year, Insa showed that the Greens were ahead by 11 points, with the Greens at 23 percent and AfD at only 12 percent. The war in Ukraine, growing inflation, an energy crisis, and out-of-control immigration have all sunk the Green Party’s fortunes.
The last time AfD was ahead of the Greens was in October 2018, when AfD was at 18 percent and the Greens were at 17 percent.
The latest poll from Insa shows that the Left Party is also suffering following Sahra Wagenknecht’s decision to leave. The party would only score 4 percent, which would leave it ineligible to sit in parliament. The CDU also dropped one point since the last poll, while the SPD rose by 1.5 points.
Over the last year, a number of rival political parties have stepped up calls to ban the AfD as the party grows in popularity. They have claimed that banning one of the country’s major opposition political parties is about “protecting democracy.”
The AfD party has called for an end to sanctions on Russia, arguing they are damaging Germany more than Russia. Germany has long relied on cheap Russian energy to fuel its manufacturing base. AfD has also benefitted from its calls to secure the German border, as the country saw nearly 1.4 million migrants arrive last year, causing a serious crisis for the country.
END
UK/VIRGIN ORBIT
Shares of Virgin Orbit crash as the British economy seizes
Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc. shares crashed in premarket trading on a report that it’s “furloughing nearly all its employees and pausing operations for a week” as it searches for an emergency funding lifeline.
CNBC reported that on Wednesday, executives from Virgin, the satellite launch firm founded by Richard Branson, held a meeting with their staff to discuss the company’s uncertain future. The executives informed the employees that those furloughed would not receive any pay but could use their Paid Time Off (PTO). The company will maintain only a skeleton team.
“Virgin Orbit is initiating a company-wide operational pause, effective March 16, 2023, and anticipates providing an update on go-forward operations in the coming weeks,” a Virgin Orbit spokesperson told Bloomberg.
Shares of the company plunged 45% to 55 cents in premarket trading in New York after the late Wednesday announcement. Shares are down more than 90% since peaking at around $10 in 2021.
During its last earnings announcement, Virgin Orbit disclosed an operating loss of $149 million for the first nine months of 2022, indicating that the company has been burning up its cash reserves. To support its operations, the company has been receiving periodic funding from Virgin Investments Ltd.
Virgin Orbit CEO Dan Hart withdrew from an appearance on a panel at a space industry conference in Washington, D.C., earlier this week.
end
SWITZERLAND/CREDIT SUISSE
The rescue! But it is not enough.
Bailout Arrives: Credit Suisse To Borrow $54BN From SNB To “Pre-emptively Strengthen Liquidity”
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 04:45 PM
Summary:
Saudis fold – refuse to throw any more money at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse stock hits record low
Credit Suisse 1Y CDS explodes as counterparty risk hedging soars
Credit Suisse execs urged a “show of confidence” from the Swiss National Bank
ECB quantifying exposures to Credit Suisse
US Treasury monitoring situation, talking with other regulators
Fed working with UST to quantify exposures
One major govt is pressuring Swiss to intervene
Systemic risk threat spreads globally
Swiss authorities seeking to stabilize bank
Swiss National Bank and Finma issue statement of support
Credit Suisse said it’s planning to borrow from the Swiss National Bank up to CHF50 billion under a covered loan facility.
Update (21:00ET): And so, the “bailout” arrives just a few hours before the Europe open, Credit Suisse said it’s planning to borrow from the Swiss National Bank up to CHF50 billion ($54 billion) under a covered loan facility which is “fully collateralized by high quality assets”. It wasn’t immediately clear what high quality assets CS has left to pledge but in a time of BTFP, we are confident they found something.
The bank also announced offers by Credit Suisse International to repurchase certain OpCo senior debt securities for cash of up to about CHF3 billion, which will help the bank pick up a few pennies in bond discount, even as it faces tens of billions in deposit flight.
Credit Suisse Group takes decisive action to pre-emptively strengthen liquidity and announces public tender offers for debt securities
Credit Suisse is taking decisive action to pre-emptively strengthen its liquidity by intending to exercise its option to borrow from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) up to CHF 50 billion under a Covered Loan Facility as well as a short-term liquidity facility, which are fully collateralized by high quality assets. Credit Suisse also announces offers by Credit Suisse International to repurchase certain OpCo senior debt securities for cash of up to approximately CHF 3 billion.
Credit Suisse announces its intention to access the SNB’s Covered Loan Facility as well as a short-term liquidity facility of up to approximately CHF 50 billion in aggregate. This additional liquidity would support Credit Suisse’s core businesses and clients as Credit Suisse takes the necessary steps to create a simpler and more focused bank built around client needs.
Credit Suisse also announces today that it is making a cash tender offer in relation to ten US dollar denominated senior debt securities for an aggregate consideration of up to USD 2.5 billion. Concurrently, Credit Suisse is also announcing a separate cash tender offer in relation to four Euro denominated senior debt securities for an aggregate consideration of up to EUR 500 million. Both offers are subject to various conditions as set out in the respective tender offer memoranda. The offers will expire on March 22, 2023, subject to the terms and conditions set out in the offer documents. The transactions are consistent with our proactive approach to managing our overall liability composition and optimizing interest expense and allow us to take advantage of current trading levels to repurchase debt at attractive prices.
CEO Ulrich Koerner said: “These measures demonstrate decisive action to strengthen Credit Suisse as we continue our strategic transformation to deliver value to our clients and other stakeholders. We thank the SNB and FINMA as we execute our strategic transformation. My team and I are resolved to move forward rapidly to deliver a simpler and more focused bank built around client needs.”
As a global systemically important bank, Credit Suisse, like its global peers, is subject to high standards for capital, funding, liquidity and leverage requirements. As of the end of 2022, Credit Suisse had a CET1 ratio of 14.1% and an average liquidity coverage ratio1 (LCR) of 144%, which has since improved to approximately 150% (as of March 14, 2023). The use of the Covered Loan Facility of CHF 39 billion will further strengthen the LCR with immediate effect. Credit Suisse is conservatively positioned against interest rate risks. The volume of duration fixed income securities is not material compared to the overall HQLA (high quality liquid assets) portfolio and, in addition, is fully hedged for moves in interest rates. Moreover, the loan book is highly collateralized at almost 90%, with more than 60% in Switzerland and an average provision for credit loss ratio of 8 bps across Wealth Management and the Swiss Bank.
While the one paragraph that matters is the first one up top, what we find interesting is its attempt to distance itself from SIVB and other regional US banks that have been crippled due to their duration exposure and asset/liability mismtach, to wit: “The volume of duration fixed income securities is not material compared to the overall HQLA (high quality liquid assets) portfolio and, in addition, is fully hedged for moves in interest rates.” In other words,what brought SIVB down is not what will bring us down – i.e., a good old-fashioned bank run. What is funny, however, is that by being “hedged”, CS admit it will get not benefit from yields now tumbling.
* * *
So to summarize: Credit Suisse effectively just took out a priming DIP loan, pledging its last remaining assets with the SNB, to shore up some $54BN in emergency liquidity, probably how much the bank has seen in deposit outflows. It will be very interesting on what terms those assets were pledged.
Another way of saying it, is that this is a last-ditch liquidity infusion, and all it does is prevent forced asset liquidations (a la SVB). Meanwhile it does nothing to halt the depositor flight because once trust is broken, it rarely returns.
The news sent Euro Stoxx 50 futures 2% higher, and pushed Emini S&P futures to session highs of 3946; 2Year yields moved up by about 20bps to 4.00% before fading the move.
That said don’t hold your breath for some breathtaking surge: once the market sees though this rescue for what it is – yet another temporary stop gap measure – it will demand much more, especially after the ECB hikes rates tomorrow which this “band-aid bailout” will allow the Central Bank to do, in the process guaranteeing an even bigger bailout down the line.
* * *
Update (1730 ET): The Swiss National Bank and the country’s regulator said Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks and that the SNB will provide the bank with liquidity if necessary, in a statement.
Full Statement:
The Swiss National Bank SNB and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA assert that the problems of certain banks in the USA do not pose a direct risk of contagion for the Swiss financial markets. The strict capital and liquidity requirements applicable to Swiss financial institutions ensure their stability. Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks. If necessary, the SNB will provide CS with liquidity.
The SNB and FINMA are pointing out in this joint statement that there are no indications of a direct risk of contagion for Swiss institutions due to the current turmoil in the US banking market.
Regulation in Switzerland requires all banks to maintain capital and liquidity buffers that meet or exceed the minimum requirements of the Basel standards. Furthermore, systemically important banks have to meet higher capital and liquidity requirements. This allows negative effects of major crises and shocks to be absorbed.
Credit Suisse’s stock exchange value and the value of its debt securities have been particularly affected by market reactions in recent days. FINMA is in very close contact with the bank and has access to all information relevant to supervisory law. Against this background, FINMA confirms that Credit Suisse meets the higher capital and liquidity requirements applicable to systemically important banks. In addition, the SNB will provide liquidity to the globally active bank if necessary. FINMA and the SNB are following developments very closely and are in close contact with the Federal Department of Finance to ensure financial stability.
Notably, Credit Suisse ADRs still trading in the US showed no exuberance on this statement….
end
Warning! Due to Credit Suisse Situation-Bank Run Expected on Thursday According to Dr. Marco Metzler
Perhaps correct. THE SNB has no choice but to guarantee deposits. The reality is that a bank’s worth is its’ inherent ability to provide service to a customer with deposits beyond deposit services. In case of trade credit a Credit Suisse LC is heavily discounted. For a long time a number of European banks had their LC’s in trade discounted below 50% marking them a poor choice for a credit worthy customer who basically pays for their weakness. As for Swiss Francs in cash, i have seen personally how they quietly extinguish cash notes without notice making holding such cash over time a risk.
SWITZERLAND: CREDIT SUISSE TRADING STARTING LAST NIGHT PRE OPENING AND FINAL TRADING
end
Seems that the bailout was a bust as credit default swaps rise and the stock tumbles
(zerohedge)
‘Bailout Bust’? European Bank Default Risk Rises As Credit Suisse Stock Tumbles
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 10:36 AM
Over $50 billion dollars in fresh liquidity to CS and the market is saying – moar!
Despite SNB’s bailout, Credit Suisse shares are fading back from overnight exuberance…
Additionally, Credit Suisse’s credit risk has barely improved…
European bank stocks are below yesterday’s lows…
And more problematically, the credit risk of the European banking sector has soared from the opening lows today…
Now higher risk than at the peak yesterday – before the bailout.
Simply put – we’re gonna need a bigger boat!
end
Time: 12 10 am daylight saving time:/ pretrading in Europe/Switzerland after the 54 billion SF bailout. This money is basically replacing the amount of money already withdrawn by depositors. The stock is now at its all time low!!
CSGN:SWSIX Swiss ExCredit Suisse Group AG//COMPANY INFO
iSource News on Twitter: “”EVERYBODY GET OUT NOW!” Panic Resumes On Wall Street as Credit Suisse Sparks Global De-Risking After Top Investor Bails [DEVELOPING]” / Twitter
The Saudis are done with this show and did state this formally.
"EVERYBODY GET OUT NOW!"
Panic Resumes On Wall Street as Credit Suisse Sparks Global De-Risking After Top Investor Bails
Here is a list of countries supplying tanks to Ukraine
(zerohedge)
Who Is Delivering Tanks To Ukraine?
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 02:45 AM
A drawn-out back and forth between Ukraine, the U.S. and European NATO countries in January led to the first pledges for deliveries of Western-made tanks to the Ukrainian military.
However, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, at the end of March, only one full battalion will have been delivered to Ukraine from Europe instead of the planned two as even promises from countries pushing for the deliveries were taken back or delayed.
Earlier this week, Ukrainian soldiers finished a four-week training on German-designed Leopard 2 tanks in Spain, making the country’s military ready to receive the tanks. Poland will have provided 14 Leopard 2 units by the end of the month – some of which have already arrived in Ukraine -, while Germany and Portugal will have delivered 18 and 3, respectively. This is according to the Ukrainian online publication Defense Express. In fact, Poland is hoping to deliver 16 more tanks it is currently fixing up by the end of April, according to Bloomberg. Spain itself is attempting to get six out of the 10 promised Leopard 2 tanks, which are currently mothballed, ready for delivery this spring.
At a total count of 57, these deliveries would still fall short of the 62 tanks needed for two Ukrainian tank battalions.
The Netherlands, initially pledging 18 tanks, withdrew its proposition because its vehicles are loaned from Germany, which did not sign off on the additional deliveries of tanks on top of the ones it is already sending. According to German media, Denmark and Finland have also backpedaled, citing their need for the tanks at home and in existing missions, while Sweden is holding out for NATO membership – currently blocked by Turkey and Hungary.
Defense Express further lists pledges of eight Leopard 2 tanks each from Norway and Canada. But no set timelines seem to exist for these deliveries, similar to the situation in the UK, which has pledged 14 Challenger 2 tanks and wants to double that number from mothballed units at a later stage.
The U.S., finally, might be looking at the longest timeline. The country which reluctantly made its own model, the M1 Abrams, available to keep its European partners at ease, is saying that deliveries will take at least months or even until the end of the year.
end
Russia/USA
Payback for NordStream 1 and two:?
Watch: Russian Fighter Jet Dumps Fuel On US Reaper Drone
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 10:07 AM
The US Department of Defense published a short video of a Russian fighter jet performing an unsafe maneuver while intercepting a US Air Force MQ-9 “Reaper” drone that crashed into the Black Sea on Tuesday. American officials have criticized Russia for operating their aircraft in a way deemed “unsafe and unprofessional.”
In the 42-second clip, the Russian Su-27 can be seen approaching the back of the MQ-9 drone while it starts to release fuel. This action was likely intended to discourage the surveillance drone’s presence in international airspace over the Black Sea and obstruct its advanced sensors
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the drone posed no threat to anyone and was operating in international airspace.
“The United States will continue to fly and to operate wherever international law allows, and it is incumbent upon Russia to operate its military aircraft in a safe and professional manner,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Russia has denied that its pilots acted unprofessionally or struck the drone’s propeller.
The Russian Defense Ministry spoke with Austin about the incident and said the drone ignored flight restrictions in the area posted by the Kremlin. There was also a report the drone was flying with no broadcasting transponder and headed toward the Russian border.
Russia pointed out the incident is due to “the intensification of intelligence activities against the interests of the Russian Federation.”
Although there was no loss of life, the incident outlines the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has sparked concerns that it may escalate and might lead to direct confrontation between Russia and the US. This comes as the spring offensive is underway.
Poland To Send MiG-29 Jets To Ukraine In Hopes Of Tilting US Debate
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 10:45 AM
We detailed earlier how pressure is growing on the White House to send F-16 jets to Ukraine, particularly in the Senate where bipartisan lawmakers this week penned a letter to President Biden urging quick action as a “game changer on the battlefield” at a moment Ukrainian forces are nearly encircled in Bakhmut.
As far as NATO allies go, Poland has long been the country most loudly asking Washington to approve jets. Warsaw is now taking action, no doubt in hopes of tilting the momentum of the political debate in Washington toward supplying planes. President Andrzej Duda on Thursday announced his country plans to send around a dozen MiG-29 fighter jets.Image source: EPA-EFE
This will make Poland the first NATO country to fulfil Zelensky’s requests for fighter jets since the war began. Given Ukraine already operates the Soviet-made planes, it’s expected they’ll be in use right away.
Duda specified that an initial four MiG-29s will be delivered “within the next few days” and that the rest would come after they go through servicing and maintenance.
The Associated Press notes that the total to be transferred could be more than a dozen: “The Polish word he used to describe their number can mean between 11 and 19,” according to the report.
“They are in the last years of their functioning but they are in good working condition,” Duda explained. Warsaw has also said it’s ready to be part of an international coalition supplying aircraft; however, the Biden administration has been a leading voice of reluctance on fears it would provoke direct escalation with Russia. NATO leaders have long stressed they need to make a common decision on jets.
An attempt by Poland in March of last year to send MiGs, on the condition that Washington would replace its fleet with more advanced US-made jets, fell apart after the Biden administration said it was premature, denying that such a plan was ever put in place.
But the all-important question looming in the background to all of this “debate” over jets for Ukraine is this: what happens when NATO-supplied aircraft begin shooting Russian fighters out of the sky? Some leaders in the West are already advocating and hoping for precisely this scenario…
END
Looks like Bakhmut is finished!
Robert H to us;
Bakhmut
The city is in a real cauldron now. The 12,000 troops remaining will surrender or die there. The Russians will take their time there now that they have taken the metal plant on the northern side, as there is no hurry as they are reducing tank brigades to the North. Another 5000 or so troops will be killed there over the next week or so. Losses in tanks and other equipment will also be huge. Most of the work is being done by artillery and aviation assets. Once the Ukrainians make their southern push likely next week there will be a huge loss there and partly why the drone was taken out of service as not to show Russian counter moves. Other drones or planes trying to do the same will meet the same fate.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
The historic Megiddo pass has been bombed and that has put Israel on edge. The Hezbollah operative who crossed the border into Israel has been killed
(zerohedge)
Israel On Edge After Suspected Hezbollah Operative Crossed Border, Bombed Roadway
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 08:00 PM
Israel has been shaken by what’s being described as a very serious security breach on its northern border, with a mysterious roadside bombing at Megiddo in northern Israel on Monday now being described as a terror act of Lebanese Hezbollah.
Until Wednesday, there was a strict gag order in place among Israeli security officials and media while the investigation was ongoing and top-level emergency security meetings were convened. One victim of the blast is said to be in serious condition, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been meeting with his top security officials, having also confirmed he’ll be returning from Berlin a day earlier to handle the crisis.IDF: Israeli soldiers are seen on the Lebanese border, March 13, 2023.
According to The Times of Israel, a Hezbollah operative snuck across the border earlier this week, and reportedly hitched a ride with a local Arab. “The alleged terrorist was shot dead on the Lebanese border several hours after the attack on Monday. He was armed with an explosives belt at the time,” the report says.
The bomb detonated Monday morning, and the IDF said forensic evidence showed the bomb to be “unusual” – and not like what is more common among Palestinian attackers. This prompted the military and police to shut down roads and the whole area while trying to track the culprit. The Times of Israel described:
Officers of the elite police Yamam counterterrorism unit and Shin Bet officers opened fire at the suspect, killing him. The IDF said the suspect was a “clear danger” to the security forces and had a primed explosives belt on him at the time.
The bystander who was the lone reported victim of the bombing attack has been identified as 21-year-old Shareef al-Din. He suffered shrapnel wounds all over his body.
Before the details were revealed by authorities, Israeli Kan 11 channel reported that “most of the details of the case are forbidden to be published according to censorship instructions – the security system is very concerned about the details of the case.”
This follows a string of attacks and major security incidents amid rising tensions in the West Bank between Palestinians and Israeli security. It also comes amid large Israeli protests in reaction to controversial judicial reforms and new policies of Netanyahu’s far right governing coalition.
According to Mideast news site The Cradle, “Such bombing operations are reminiscent of those carried out during the Second Intifada, which saw several large-scale attacks, such as the Megiddo Junction bus bombing of 2002 by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).”
Disciplinary investigations against three Ontario doctors should never have started, their lawyer says, because they were breaching “mere guidelines” related to COVID-19 and not breaking a code of professional conduct.
The doctors—Crystal Luchkiw, Patrick Phillips, and Mark Trozzi—seemed to take a blow earlier this year when a tribunal rejected their motion to halt proceedings. But lawyer Michael Alexander has latched onto part of that tribunal’s decision to come back fighting.
The tribunal, which hears disciplinary cases within the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO), agreed with Alexander that CPSO’s requirements for doctors during the pandemic were “simply recommendations or guidelines; they did not have the force of law,” Alexander said at a new hearing on March 10.
The reason the tribunal had allowed the prosecution to continue was on other grounds, Alexander said, such as lack of cooperation with the college’s investigations. But if the investigation shouldn’t have happened in the first place, that alleged lack of cooperation should be irrelevant, he said. This is the matter he brought before the tribunal on March 10.
National Significance
When these hearings first began in November, Alexander told The Epoch Times that the decision made by the tribunal could impact how a plethora of such cases are being handled nationwide. Doctors and nurses across Canada are facing discipline for being critical of public health recommendations during the pandemic.
In some cases, including Alexander’s clients, the discipline is for speaking their criticisms publicly or posting on social media.
Ontario’s college collaborated with colleges in other provinces to set the guidelines for doctors. Doctors were not to discourage vaccination in speaking with the public, they were not to issue medical exemptions for injections except in rare circumstances, and they were not to prescribe alternative treatments for COVID-19.
If the tribunal agrees with Alexander that the prosecution should not proceed, that decision could influence how other discipline cases play out as well.
The CPSO’s counsel, Elisabeth Widner, argued that Alexander did not bring forth any new evidence that would warrant the tribunal reversing its previous decision to continue with the prosecution.
“[Alexander is bringing forth] the very same issue that we already argued that was ruled on by a five-member panel and this tribunal not two months ago,” she said at the March 10 hearing. “That is the same argument that has already been disposed of by the tribunal.”
Alexander said, however, “It’s an attempt to draw out the implications of the tribunal’s ruling that the COVID-19 restrictions are merely recommendations.”
Defining Professional Standards
Widner and Alexander sparred on issues of how professional standards are legally defined, and thus what officially constitutes professional misconduct.
They also argued regarding the wording of the investigation orders and whether those orders remain valid despite the tribunal’s confirmation that the COVID-19 restrictions are “guidelines.”
For example, the investigation order for Luchkiw says that the investigators are to look at “whether Dr. Luchkiw in her family medicine practice and also in her conduct, including in relation to a completion of medical exemptions for COVID-19 vaccines, has engaged in professional misconduct or is incompetent.”
Alexander said if you remove the part about vaccines, “It is now a description of nothing.” He said it doesn’t meet the standard of a “brief description” of evidence required to start a disciplinary investigation.
Widner said a Divisional Court ruling last fall said it was fine for the college “to use guidance documents” such as the COVID restrictions in question, “to inform their conclusions about the patient safety test.” The patient safety test is codified in relation to professional conduct.
The college had asserted that not following the COVID-19 guidance may have endangered patients and thus brings the doctors under valid suspicion of misconduct and warranted an investigation.
“We have a problem, and I am bringing this problem to the attention of the Ontario Court of Appeal,” Alexander said. “And if necessary, I will take it to the Supreme Court of Canada.”
Remember the mega-hit book The Bonfire of the Vanities? While a work of fiction, the book shone a harsh light on the all-too-real world of lies, corruption, and hypocrisy in high places. In one of my favorite scenes, the power-couple protagonists attend a party at the home of the aptly named Bavardage family, where all the guests blab at each other with deep-fake enthusiasm, making sure to display their “boiling teeth” at all times.
Like the high society portrayed in the book, the Covid regime was replete with rot, from taped-up basketball nets and masked toddlers to vaccine passports and… slogans. Some of the slogans were carefully crafted by governments, while others sprang from the weeds of social media. They all drew from the same playbook, capitalizing on fear and using emotional manipulation to activate people’s guilt circuits. They served as thought-stopping mantras that precluded honest communication about the pandemic. To anyone with even a slightly nuanced worldview, their plodding earnestness grated like an earworm.
With three years of pandemic history behind us, it’s high time to put these clunkers to bed.
I’ve collected a baker’s dozen of the slogans that have dogged us for the past three years, and explain why they deserve to be torched and thrown into an unmarked grave.
Two weeks to flatten the curve. Here’s a case where a big fat laugh emoji would do the job of a thousand words. Anyone remember what happened when the two weeks were up? Yeah, so do I. The “experts” decided that we need to keep doing something. And that something was more lockdowns.
Stay home, save lives. This sanctimonious and bossy slogan sent the message that mental health didn’t count, livelihoods didn’t count, arts and culture didn’t count, religious communion didn’t count, and the dreams people had spent years pursuing didn’t count. The only thing that counted was preserving metabolic life—or at least, pretending we were doing that.
Follow the science.I’m not the first person to note that the only constant in science is change. Questioning science is science. But that’s not even the main reason “Follow the science” makes no sense. Science is information. It tells you what is, not what to do about it. That depends on our values: How important do we consider attendance at school? Live music and theater? Comforting people at the end of life? There are no mathematical coefficients for weighting these parameters. Health policy professor Leana Wen put it well in a recent Washington Postarticle: “Underneath it all is values: Whose rights are paramount? The individual who must give up freedoms, or those around them who want to lower infection risk? Yes, science should guide such debates, but it cannot lead all the way to the answer.”
We’re all in this together. Is that so? Was the worker delivering DoorDash orders in the same boat as the Netflix-and-chill couples perfecting new sourdough recipes during lockdown? Was the event planner who lost a 10-year business in the same boat as the Amazon shareholders? Was the foreign student stuck in a low-ceilinged apartment in the same boat as the well-connected mom who hired a power tutor for her kids?
Muh freedumb.During Covid, safety became the all-consuming preoccupation and freedom got branded as right-wing stupidity. Freedom to take a walk on the beach? Stop killing the vulnerable! Freedom to earn a living? The economy will recover! The demotion of freedom—that noble ideal of liberal democracy—to a caricature has been painful to observe. Without freedom, we have nothing resembling a life. Pandemic or not, freedom needs a place at the discussion table.
Mask it or casket. Hyperbole much? The glib phrase was designed to frighten, rather than inform, its cuteness making it all the more irritating. When a statement deviates so sharply from reality, it loses its power. People don’t take it seriously, even if they insist on Twitter that they do.
The virus doesn’t discriminate. This one was especially weaselly because it contained a grain of truth that people could latch onto. Young or old, healthy or frail, anyone could catch the virus. But the risk of serious harm from the virus was orders of magnitude higher in certain groups, especially the old and frail. Experts downplayed this sharp risk gradient, plunging everyone into an abyss of fear. Not cool.
Can’t do X if you’re dead. We heard this a lot in the early months, as a justification for maintaining this or that restriction. You can’t attend a jazz concert if you’re dead. You can’t go backpacking in Nepal if you’re dead. For all its slickness, the slogan doesn’t stand up to logical scrutiny. It sets an actual scenario (restriction on an activity) against an improbable counterfactual (dying if the restriction is lifted). It’s like warning someone who’s about to drive across country, which is riskier than taking a bus, that “you can’t enjoy the coastal cities if you’re dead.” Said nobody ever.
Listen to the experts. OK, but which experts? The scientists that governments allowed to speak? What about the scientists with hundreds of citations in prestigious journals but divergent views? Can we listen to them, too? And what about mental health experts? Or economists? Historians? Bioethicists and philosophers? A pandemic isn’t just a scientific problem to solve, but a human one. Scientists do not get to decide what gives meaning to life and what trade-offs are worth making when steering the human family through a pandemic. Some of the sharpest insights about Covid have come from people outside of science. We ignore them at our own peril.
My mask protects you, your mask protects me. More naked emotional manipulation. The message was clear: if you don’t mask, you’re a bad person (presumably a fate worse than death). In fact, the mask is more of a cultural signifier than a viral transmission blocker. As the recent Cochrane review of physical interventions to slow viral transmission has made clear, whatever evidence exists for community masking is underwhelming at best.
Pandemic of the unvaccinated. That one aged rather poorly. A February 2023 Lancetarticle concluded that the “SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are insufficiently efficacious in preventing infections.” We can debate the fine points, but by now we all know that vaccinated people both catch and transmit Covid. What’s more, a Danish meta-analysis was unable to find credible evidence that mRNA vaccines reduced mortality, leaving statisticians with the unenviable job of torturing the data in subgroup analyses. (Perhaps six-toed people born on a Tuesday have lower hospitalization rates during the month after getting their boosters.) I started out with a lot of hope in the vaccines. I got vaxxed up and boosted myself. But let’s call a spade a spade: the vaccine purveyors overpromised and underdelivered.
You may be done with Covid, but Covid isn’t done with you. The statement isn’t the gotcha that people think it is. Of course Covid isn’t done with us. Neither is the common cold or the flu. Neither are thunderstorms and volcanoes and earthquakes and a thousand other forces of nature. When people say they’re done with Covid, they simply mean they’re done turning the world into an infection control zone. “I believe that pandemics end partially because humans declare them at an end,” says University of New Hampshire history professor Marion Dorsey, quoted from a Scientific American article titled “People, not science, decide when a pandemic is over.” Spanish flu chronicler John Barry concurs: a pandemic ends “when people stop paying attention to it.” And there’s nothing the shrinking cast of Covidians can do about it.
Stay safe. These words, generally used at the end of a social interaction, became the verbal equivalent of touching wood—a knee-jerk utterance to ward off the evil eye. It always reminded me of the “praise be” muttered by the handmaids in Margaret Atwood’s iconic novel: mechanical and dystopian. One of my friends responds to the words with “Stay dangerous.” Stay alert, stay curious, stay ready to think for yourself. If there’s anything I wish for us all in year four of the Covid era, it’s this.
Is this another vaccine-induced myocarditis illness? Is this due to a damaged heart? More and more of these cardiac arrests are happening in our pilots; a loaded plane can come down
Pilots must insist that they only fly once myocarditis is excluded e.g. tests such as D-dimer, high-sensitivity troponin, contrast chest MRI, EKG etc. A vaccine-induced myocarditis heart with scarring (scarred myocardium), under stress e.g. emergency situation or stressful situation in the cabin/cockpit, will result in adrenaline flooding the system, and this can be too much stress for the already scarred heart and there could be irregular heart activity (e.g. arrythmia), then possibly cardiac arrest/death.
Adelaide, where emergency responders were waiting to transport the sick pilot to the hospital; incapacitated after suffering a heart attack; but airlines want us to accept ONE pilot now, NO co-pilot?
No co-pilot is a disaster in the making, definitely not after this COVID fraud gene injection. So what would happen if the one pilot became incapacitated? In many of these tragedies we are reporting, thank God the co-pilot etc. was there to bring the plane to safety.
I tell you, a large commercial plane will soon fall and it is as if these beasts want some planes to crash. To stop flying? What do you think?
know cause of death & Schwab et al.’s study in Germany highlighted just why that is critical, finding 71% (25/35) had diagnoses linked to vaccine injury syndrome; 5 having acute myocarditis as cause
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
An important issue is that these people reportedly died in their sleep and we are seeing this that between the hours of 3 to 6 am as there is a surge of catecholamines (adrenaline etc.) as we begin to rise, that people are dying. These people were COVID vaccinated. Same on the sports field, as there is a surge of adrenaline on a vaccine induced myocarditis damaged heart. Scarred and damaged from the vaccine. Do not be afraid to ask the right question. IMO, it’s the vaccine, stupid, it’s the vaccine!
‘The remaining 25 (71%) had final diagnoses consistent with a vaccine injury syndrome including myocardial infarction, worsening heart failure, vascular aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, fatal stroke, and vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia.’
This study details:
Researchers sought to (in Germany when looking at 35 persons who died within 20 days of injection where 10 were removed from analysis as not linked to the vaccine) ‘describe the autopsy findings and common characteristics of myocarditis in untreated persons who received anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. ‘
Standardized autopsies were performed on 25 persons who had died unexpectedly and within 20 days after anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.
In four patients who received a mRNA vaccination, we identified acute (epi-)myocarditis without detection of another significant disease or health constellation that may have caused an unexpected death.
Histology showed patchy interstitial myocardial T-lymphocytic infiltration, predominantly of the CD4 positive subset, associated with mild myocyte damage. Overall, autopsy findings indicated death due to acute arrhythmogenic cardiac failure.
Thus, myocarditis can be a potentially lethal complication following mRNA-based anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.’
Hochul wants the power to lock New Yorkers up! For a pandemic that is done, a virus that is done. Why this over reach now? What data does she have that we do not have? Hochul is dangerous here!
‘Late in the day on Monday March 13, 2023, just hours before the deadline, New York Attorney General, Letitia James, filed an appeal to try to overturn our successful lawsuit that struck down Governor Hochul’s unconstitutional “Isolation and Quarantine Procedures” regulation.
The case, Borrello v. Hochul, which we won last July, was brought against the Governor and her Department of Health, on behalf of a group of NYS Legislators, Senator George Borrello, Assemblyman Chris Tague, Assemblyman (now Congressman) Mike Lawler, together with our citizens’ group, Uniting NYS.’
adult patients recovering from COVID-19 infection; this is key for it helps the argument that the CDC etc. has made and LIED that persons infected have elevated myocarditis; no, it’s the VACCINE
‘studied the incidence of post-acute COVID-19 myocarditis and pericarditis.
Retrospective cohort study of 196,992 adults after COVID-19 infection in Clalit Health Services members in Israel between March 2020 and January 2021.
Nine post-COVID-19 patients developed myocarditis (0.0046%), and eleven patients were diagnosed with pericarditis (0.0056%).
In the control cohort, 27 patients had myocarditis (0.0046%) and 52 had pericarditis (0.0088%). Age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.93 to 1.00) and male sex (aHR 4.42; 95% CI, 1.64 to 11.96) were associated with myocarditis. Male sex (aHR 1.93; 95% CI 1.09 to 3.41) and peripheral vascular disease (aHR 4.20; 95% CI 1.50 to 11.72) were associated with pericarditis.
Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with either myocarditis (aHR 1.08; 95% CI 0.45 to 2.56) or pericarditis (aHR 0.53; 95% CI 0.25 to 1.13). We did not observe an increased incidence of neither pericarditis nor myocarditis in adult patients recovering from COVID-19 infection.’
The amended authorization is for children six months through four years of age who have completed their initial three-dose vaccination with Pfizer’s original shot; so baby can have mom’s vax & theirs
Banking Crisis Worsens: Swiss Bank is First “Too Big to Fail” Bank to be Bailed Out as Saudis Withdraw Support
Switzerland’s second largest bank, Credit Suisse, which has been experiencing bank runs and plummeting stock valuations since the end of 2022, became the first SIFI (systemically important financial institution), or “too big to fail” bank, to crash today forcing regulators to step in and ensure a bailout. The Saudis almost single-handedly crashed the U.S. Stock Market (and stock markets around the world) this morning when they announced that they were not going to put any more money into the failed Swiss bank. While the U.S. Stock Market did end lower today, it most assuredly would have been a blood bath if Swiss Regulators had not stepped in to ensure the world that it was going to bail out their troubled bank. This was after European markets had closed, however, and European banks’ stock values lost 7% at end of trading in Europe today. Since a simple statement made by Saudi National Bank Chairman Ammar Al Khudairy almost crashed the entire world’s financial system today, what does that tell you about the frailty of the current banking system?
U.S. GOP Senator Calls for Shooting Down Russian Planes as War with Russia Escalates
March 15, 2023 4:49 pm
As the world stands on the brink of a total financial meltdown, the U.S. corporate media was controlling the narrative in a different direction today focusing on the downing of a U.S. drone over the Black Sea that they claim was shot down by Russians. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham appeared on Fox News to state that the U.S. should now start shooting down Russian planes, because “that’s what Ronald Reagan would do,” and of course, this is all “Biden’s fault.”
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has warned Western states against capping the price of crude oil supplied by the kingdom, adding that any attempts to impose a ceiling would be met with a halt of sales and production cuts.
He added that other major oil producers would most likely follow suit.
“So, if a price cap were to be imposed on Saudi oil exports, we will not sell oil to any country that imposes a price cap on our supply, and we will reduce oil production, and I would not be surprised if others do the same,” bin Salman said in an interview with Energy Intelligence on Tuesday.
According to the minister, price-cap policies inevitably exacerbate market instability and volatility, and would negatively impact the entire oil industry across the globe.
He compared the oil-price cap with the US proposal to adopt the so-called NOPEC legislation, stressing that the potential impact of such measures on the oil market are similar. NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act) would allow OPEC and national oil companies to be sued under US antitrust law for anti-competitive attempts to limit global supply of oil and the subsequent impact on crude prices.
In December, the EU, G7 nations, and their allies introduced a collective ban on Russian seaborne oil exports, along with a price cap of $60 per barrel. Another embargo banning almost all imports of Russian oil products, as well as introducing price caps on diesel and other petroleum products, kicked in on February 5.
Moscow has opposed any attempts to cap the price of its energy exports. The Russian authorities have forbidden any oil deals under the price-cap scheme. In February, Russia announced plans to voluntarily reduce oil production in March by 500,000 barrels per day as it halts sales to buyers that comply with a Western-imposed price ceiling.
According to the Saudi oil minister, the policies pursued by the West add “new layers of risk and uncertainty” to the global oil market “at a time when clarity and stability are most needed.”
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0612 UP .0031
USA/ YEN 132.62 DOWN 0.272/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2048 DOWN 0.0018
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3732 DOWN .0033 (CDN DOLLAR UP 33 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 36.42 PTS OR 1.12%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 335.96 PTS OR 1.72%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.52% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 335.96 PTS OR 1.72%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 36.42 PTS OR 1.12%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.52%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 2.18.76 PTS OR 0.80%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1926.70
silver:$22.03
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 104.07 DOWN 20 BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.8966)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9063
TURKISH LIRA: 19.00 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.237…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.451% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.621 DOWN 7 in basis points
USA 2 yr bond yield: 4.089 UP 18 basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 104.20 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 64.74 PTS OR 0.88%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 203.64POINTS OR 1.38%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 135.08PTS OR 1.96%
Spain IBEX UP 109.00 POINTS OR 1.24%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 263.80 PTS OR 1.03
%
WTI Oil price 67.46 12: EST
Brent Oil: 73.33 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 76.24/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 0/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.225
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.346 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0613 UP 0.0031 OR 31 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2114 UP .0047 or 47 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.4325% UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 133.48 UP 0.579////YEN DOWN 58 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3725 DOWN .0042 (CDN dollar, UP 42 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 68.23
Brent OIL: 74.55
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS pts to 3.573%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS PTS to 3.712%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 16 PTS AT 4.1614%
USA dollar index: 104.07 UP 0 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.01
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 76.40 DOWN 0 AND 42/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 371.98 PTS OR 1.17%
NASDAQ 100 UP 330 PTS OR 2.68%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.99 UP 3.15 PTS (12.05)%
GLD: $178.57 UP 0.36 OR 0.20%
SLV/ $19,92 DOWN 0.08OR 0.40%
end)
1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks Soar As Big-Banks’ Depo-Reacharound Rescues Regionals; Bonds Dumped
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Uncertainty around the US and Europe banks sector remains elevated but markets today are signaling at least an incremental level of comfort as stocks rise and bonds fall a tad (pushing up yields).
European markets started off exuberantly, opening positively after the SNB bailout of CS; but from the start, selling pressure took EU banking stocks red and credit risk to new cycle highs…
Source: Bloomberg
EU banking stocks ended with very marginal gains, despite the bailout…
Source: Bloomberg
That then reversed on chatter from US about a bailout plan for small/regional banks. FRC started the day off deep in the red with talk of a $25 bn shortfall and capital raise plans being discussed. That morphed into a bailout by the big banks – injecting their own cash as deposits in FRC.
Basically, the big banks are recirculating all of the deposits they get from small banks back into small banks… and for now that was enough to lift FRC into the green, but surprisingly, it didn’t explode higher…
Bear in mind that regional banks are still down dramatically from pre-SVB levels…
Source: Bloomberg
All the US Majors were ramped into the green to day with Nasdaq leading and The Dow lagging…
The S&P 500 rallied back above its 100- and 200-DMAs…
When the S&P broke above its 200DMA, 0DTE traders pushed heavily on negative delta, but the market kept going…
Nasdaq ‘VIX’ remain dramatically decoupled from S&P ‘VIX’…
However, amid all this ‘good’ news, Commercial Real Estate stocks continued to be sold…
Source: Bloomberg
After the ECB ‘surprised’ with a 50bps hike (exp was around 28bps – so a small prob of 50bps, large prob of 25bps), US rate-hike odds also rose, with next week’s March FOMC now expected to hike 25bps (market pricing in 20bps of hikes)…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were dumped today as safe-haven flows unwound with yet another day of utterly crazy size yield swings across the curve (2Y +30bps, 30Y +5bps). Amid all the chaos, the 30Y is basically unch on the week while 2Y yields are down 45bps…
Source: Bloomberg
2Y yields moved back above 4.00% today…
Source: Bloomberg
Given the swings, it is no surprise that MOVE (Bond vol) has literally exploded…
Bank of America, Citigroup,. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BNY-Mellon, PNC Bank, State Street, Truist and U.S. Bank to make uninsured deposits totaling $30 billion into First Republic Bank
March 16, 2023
Action by the largest U.S. banks reflects their confidence in the country’s banking system and helps ensure First Republic has the liquidity to continue serving its customers.
Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo announced today they are each making a $5 billion uninsured deposit into First Republic Bank.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are each making an uninsured deposit of $2.5 billion
BNY-Mellon, PNC Bank, State Street, Truist and U.S. Bank are each making an uninsured deposit of $1 billion, for a total deposit from the eleven banks of $30 billion.
This action by America’s largest banks reflects their confidence in First Republic and in banks of all sizes, and it demonstrates their overall commitment to helping banks serve their customers and communities. Regional, midsize and small banks are critical to the health and functioning of our financial system.
Following the receiverships of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, there were outflows of uninsured deposits at a small number of banks. America’s financial system is among the best in the world, and America’s banks – large, midsize and community banks – do an extraordinary job serving the banking needs of their unique customers and communities. The banking system has strong credit, plenty of liquidity, strong capital and strong profitability. Recent events did nothing to change this.
The actions of America’s largest banks reflect their confidence in the country’s banking system. Together, we are deploying our financial strength and liquidity into the larger system, where it is needed the most. Smaller- and medium-sized banks support their local customers and businesses, create millions of jobs and help uplift communities. America’s larger banks stand united with all banks to support our economy and all of those around us.
The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell, FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu.
Today, 11 banks announced $30 billion in deposits into First Republic Bank. This show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system.
This bailout is very similar to the 1998 bailout of LTCM when fourteen banks and brokerage firms invested $3.6 billion in Long-Term Capital Management L.P. (LTCM) to prevent the firm’s imminent collapse; the bailout was orchestrated by – but did not involve – Fed funding. That said, LTCM was a hedge fund, and was not a direct competitor.
The bailout is also very different to what happened when Bear Stearns collapsed, as the Big Banks again tried, but refused to save Bear in 2008.
And now they have agreed to inject $30BN in the form of unsecured deposits in First Republic, effectively backstopping the entire capital structure and making the equity money good, because they have explicitly guaranteed that no matter how bad the deposit run is, they will keep the bank funded (using deposits that just a few days ago may have been parked at First Republic).
The next question: why did the banks agree to this? Was it guilt that banks such as SIVB and SBNY collapsed because of their actions/behind the scenes negotiations with regulators? We don’t know, but Wall Street is hardly known for being a good Samaritan, and if given the choice, banks would have opted to wait until the bankruptcy and pick choice assets for pennies on the dollar.
As one might expect, First Republic executives are relieved and expressed their thanks:
“We would like to share our deep appreciation for Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC Bank, State Street, Truist, and U.S. Bank.
Their collective support strengthens our liquidity position, reflects the ongoing quality of our business, and is a vote of confidence for First Republic and the entire U.S. banking system”
Additionally, as previously announced, First Republic obtained additional liquidity through additional borrowing capacity. It has since drawn on this borrowing capacity following recent industry events.
As of March 15, 2023, the Bank had a cash position of approximately $34 billion, not including the $30 billion of uninsured deposits from Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC Bank, State Street, Truist, and U.S. Bank with an initial term of 120 days at market rates.
From March 10 to March 15, 2023, Bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve varied from $20 billion to $109 billion at an overnight rate of 4.75%.
Since close of business on March 9, 2023, the Bank has also increased short-term borrowings from the Federal Home Loan Bank by $10 billion at a rate of 5.09%.
Insured deposits from close of business on March 8, 2023 to close of business on March 15, 2023 have remained stable.
Daily deposit outflows have slowed considerably.
The Bank is focused on reducing its borrowings and evaluating the composition and size of its balance sheet going forward. Consistent with this focus and during this period of recovery, the Bank’s Board of Directors has determined to suspend its common stock dividend.
* * *
Update (1300ET): CNBC’s David Faber is reporting that 11 of the largest US banks are planning – as a group – to deposit around $30 billion of their own cash with First Republic.
As a reminder, JPM and the “Big 4” got even bigger recently thanks to small bank deposit run from past week, which they are now returning as deposits back into those troubled banks.
The Wall Street Journal reports, according to sources, that not all banks will contribute the same amount to the pool, but each one that is participating so far will likely put in at least $1 billion.
FRC shares are jumping (and halted) on the headlines…
Summing up the last few days actions: BTFP removes all the asset-side risk from bank balance sheets, while the Big Bank deposit pledges remove all liability-side risk.
* * *
Update (1230ET): What did they know and when?
As chatter continues to build of some bailout for First Republic Bank this week, after the company’s share price has collapsed, The Wall Street Journal reports that top execs at the bank sold millions of dollars of company stock in the last two months… but did not report the sales to SEC.
A gander at the SEC filings show only one small ‘insider sale’ recently (in November)…
However, executive have been selling for months, as unlike insider sales at most companies, those at First Republic aren’t required to be reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Instead, the trades were reported to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
A handful of banks currently file these forms to the FDIC, which posts them on a website where the documents can be accessed one at a time.
As of Wednesday, First Republic is the only company listed on the S&P 500 index that doesn’t file its insider trades with the SEC, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows.
In all, insiders have sold $11.8 million worth of stock so far this year at prices averaging just below $130 a share.
Finally, we would expect a knock at the door if we were them as the DoJ is already looking at insider sales made by Silicon Valley Bank executives a week before that bank’s failure,
According to people familiar with the matter, several large banks are discussing a potential deal with First Republic Bank that could include a sizable capital infusion to shore up the beleaguered lender.
Any deal would need the blessing of regulators and will be driven at least in part by the bank’s highly volatile stock.
FRC shares are bouncing hard off the earlier lows (halted numerous times)…
That headline sent the US Majors soaring…
* * *
As we detailed earlier, First Republic Bank shares have plunged this morning, extending a week-long rout, as executives consider courting a buyer to prop up the bank in the wake of the collapse of several regional peers.
Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, the San Francisco-based bank is said to be exploring strategic options that include a sale. The firm is also weighing options for shoring up liquidity, some of the people said.
“Normally, a headline of a potential sale would support the stock,” Christopher McGratty, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette and Woods, wrote in a report.
“However, the potentially significant deposit outflows post-SIVB failure likely leave FRC in a tough spot.”
“Any potential sale would likely be a tough outcome for existing shareholders, given mark-to-market accounting on loans,” McGratty wrote.
FRC shares are down over 30% this morning, back at post-SVB lows…
First Republic saw its credit rating was cut to junk by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings.
“First Republic’s options have narrowed following deposit outflow, a sharp share-price decline and recent downgrades from ratings agencies, while a potential sale of the bank could center on the attractive wealth-management business,” Herman Chan, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in a note.
But, but, but President Biden said:
“Americans can rest assured that our banking system is safe. Your deposits are safe.”
It’s not over.
i b Morning trading: FIRST REPUBLIC SHARES PLUMMET EARLY IN THE SESSION
First Republic Bank Shares Crash; Exploring Strategic Options
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 09:39 AM
First Republic Bank shares have plunged this morning, extending a week-long rout, as executives consider courting a buyer to prop up the bank in the wake of the collapse of several regional peers.
Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, the San Francisco-based bank is said to be exploring strategic options that include a sale. The firm is also weighing options for shoring up liquidity, some of the people said.
“Normally, a headline of a potential sale would support the stock,” Christopher McGratty, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette and Woods, wrote in a report.
“However, the potentially significant deposit outflows post-SIVB failure likely leave FRC in a tough spot.”
“Any potential sale would likely be a tough outcome for existing shareholders, given mark-to-market accounting on loans,” McGratty wrote.
FRC shares are down over 30% this morning, back at post-SVB lows…
First Republic saw its credit rating was cut to junk by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings.
“First Republic’s options have narrowed following deposit outflow, a sharp share-price decline and recent downgrades from ratings agencies, while a potential sale of the bank could center on the attractive wealth-management business,” Herman Chan, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in a note.
But, but, but President Biden said:
“Americans can rest assured that our banking system is safe. Your deposits are safe.”
It’s not over.
end
then:
Credit Suisse stock plummets again as default risk rises
(zerohedge)
‘Bailout Bust’? European Bank Default Risk Rises As Credit Suisse Stock Tumbles
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 10:36 AM
Over $50 billion dollars in fresh liquidity to CS and the market is saying – moar!
Despite SNB’s bailout, Credit Suisse shares are fading back from overnight exuberance…
Additionally, Credit Suisse’s credit risk has barely improved…
European bank stocks are below yesterday’s lows…
And more problematically, the credit risk of the European banking sector has soared from the opening lows today…
Now higher risk than at the peak yesterday – before the bailout.
Simply put – we’re gonna need a bigger boat!
end
Then..
stocks soar on a supposed Republican bank deal.
Question: with huge losses in the bond portfolio, who will ultimately pay money for those losses
According to people familiar with the matter, several large banks are discussing a potential deal with First Republic Bank that could include a sizable capital infusion to shore up the beleaguered lender.
Any deal would need the blessing of regulators and will be driven at least in part by the bank’s highly volatile stock
FRC shares are bouncing hard off the earlier lows (halted numerous times)…
That headline sent the US Majors soaring…
* * *
As we detailed earlier, First Republic Bank shares have plunged this morning, extending a week-long rout, as executives consider courting a buyer to prop up the bank in the wake of the collapse of several regional peers.
Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, the San Francisco-based bank is said to be exploring strategic options that include a sale. The firm is also weighing options for shoring up liquidity, some of the people said.
“Normally, a headline of a potential sale would support the stock,” Christopher McGratty, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette and Woods, wrote in a report.
“However, the potentially significant deposit outflows post-SIVB failure likely leave FRC in a tough spot.”
“Any potential sale would likely be a tough outcome for existing shareholders, given mark-to-market accounting on loans,” McGratty wrote.
FRC shares are down over 30% this morning, back at post-SVB lows…
First Republic saw its credit rating was cut to junk by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings.
“First Republic’s options have narrowed following deposit outflow, a sharp share-price decline and recent downgrades from ratings agencies, while a potential sale of the bank could center on the attractive wealth-management business,” Herman Chan, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in a note.
But, but, but President Biden said:
“Americans can rest assured that our banking system is safe. Your deposits are safe.”
It’s not over.
end
Early morning trading:
II) USA DATA
Housing starts and permits soar especially in the renter category
(zerohedge)
Housing Starts, Permits Soar In Feb As ‘Renter Nation’ Reasserts Itself
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 08:44 AM
After an unexpected decline in January, Housing Starts and Building Permits were expected to rebound modestly in February, but they didn’t – they exploded back with Starts up 9.8% MoM and Permits up 13.8% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
Housing Starts soared thanks to a 24.1% explosion in multi-fam/rental starts (Single-family rose only 1.1%)…
Source: Bloomberg
Total Multifamilty Starts increased from 490K to 608K SAAR, the highest since April 2022; Single-family meanwhile continue to be at a 3 year low
On the permits side, single family rose 7.6% from 722K to 777K SAAR, but again the big surge was in Multi-family, which soared from 563K to 700K SAAR, up 24.3%
It was the third highest print in multi-family permits history.
This does not lok like the kind of behavior that Jay Powell was hoping for…
-END-
Both continuing and initial jobless claims fell. But the all important Philly Mfg index plummeted indicating recession
(zerohedge)
Jobless Claims Data Continues To Confound…
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 08:36 AM
Initial and continuing jobless claims continue to exist in the ‘matrix’ of a ‘strong economy’ as both fell last week (192k vs 212k and 1.684mm vs 1.713mm)….
Source: Bloomberg
And in the face of that ‘great’ data, The Philly Fed Business Outlook was significantly weaker than expected, printing -23.2, up very modestly from last month’s -24.3 (but well below the -7.5 exp)…
Which is right? Which will The Fed listen to…
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS//
as we reported on yesterday:
(zerohedge)
Meta Starts Cleaning House, Axes 1,500 Recruiting, HR Jobs
THURSDAY, MAR 16, 2023 – 02:40 PM
Meta, the owner of Facebook and Instagram, has officially embarked on another round of job cuts with the firing of 1,500 employees in recruiting and human resources, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
“The first wave of cuts were explained to Meta employees on a call with executives Thursday morning,” the people said.
Another person said Zuckerberg would address staff on Thursday afternoon about the company’s layoffs.
Zuckerberg has called for a “year of efficiency” to reduce costs after overhiring during the pandemic years. The first round of job cuts was announced in November of around 11,000 people or 13% of its staff.
Meta’s downsizing comes as its social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram WhatsApp, have been hit with a slowdown in advertising revenue, leading to the first-ever annual sales decline in 2022. Zuckerberg’s cost-cutting measures are too weather the economic storm.
Meta’s not the only tech company laying off. According to the layoff tracking website Layoffs.fyi, 483 tech companies have fired 128,000 workers so far this year.
END
James O’Keefe Announces New Project After Project Veritas Ouster
Project Veritas founder James O’Keefe has announced a new media project.
The O’Keefe Media Group was unveiled on March 15, about three weeks after O’Keefe resigned from Project Veritas following a suspension and probe into his spending practices.
“We’re going to be sending cameras into the hands of hundreds of people,” O’Keefe said on Real America’s Voice. “We’re going to be creating a citizen army of journalists.”
Project Veritas staffers and its board had maintained that O’Keefe could return to the organization, but O’Keefe is instead forging a new path.
The Project Veritas founder said that a “small, tight-knit group” of “elite journalists” has remained by his side and is joining in the new venture.
“They have awakened a sleeping giant,” O’Keefe said in a promotional video. “I’m back.”
The business model is based on donations that will directly sponsor cameras. Tiers run from $19.99 a month to $5,000 a year.
“Let’s build this army and keep every statehouse, every city council, every school board and everywhere people are conspiring to keep power, proactive favoritism or line their pockets with tax dollars!” O’Keefe said on Twitter. “Become a founding member today!”
Exit
O’Keefe exited Project Veritas, which he founded in 2010, on Feb. 20.
O’Keefe was suspended by the organization’s board of directors as it investigated allegations of financial malfeasance and abuse. A preliminary probe showed O’Keefe “has spent an excessive amount of donor funds in the last three years on personal luxuries,” the board said.
The board said it did not remove O’Keefe but he said he was forced out because he no longer had any authority.
The move divided staffers, some of whom had threated to leave if O’Keefe’s alleged conduct was not addressed. Others supported O’Keefe and have moved to the new group.
“We will never replace James O’Keefe. But for now, we see it as our job to hold the torch for him while keeping the door wide open for his return,” staffers said in a statement.
What a bunch of criminals and 1/2 of the USA supports this clown?
(zerohedge)
Rumors Swirl Over Which Biden Family Member Got Cut Of $3M CCP-Linked Wire
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 04:40 PM
Washington DC is abuzz with speculation over which Biden family member got a cut of a $3 million wire transfer to Hunter Biden associate John “Rob” Walker, just weeks after Joe Biden was no longer Vice President in 2017.
According to House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) – who last week said that evidence of CCP money flowing to the Biden family was “as bad as we thought,” – revealed that bank records obtained via a subpoena have implicated a “new Biden family member” in the ongoing investigation into the first family’s finances.
Comer told Fox News that Walker received a $3 million wire from two individuals tied to the Chinese Communist Party, which he then divvied up between Biden family members.
“The very next day after that wire was received, the Walker account started transferring money into three different Biden family members’ accounts, including a new Biden family member that’s never before been identified as someone being involved in the influence-peddling scheme,” Comer told host Sean Hannity (as part of several recent interviews on the network).
According to Comer, GOP investigators are curious about what work Biden family members performed in exchange for the money Walker disbursed. Comer added that the $3 million wire transfer was “just the first wire that we’ve actually been able to obtain bank records on. There are many, many more.“
More on Rob Walker…
Rep. James Comer: Newly Subpoenaed Records Reveal $3 mill Wire Transfer to Hunter Biden “…they got a $3 million wire two months after Joe Biden left office… then the very next day, from that account… they started wiring money to Biden family members, plural.”
Figures..Gavin Newsom kept SVB ties secret while he lobbied for a bailout
(zerohedge)
Gavin Newsom Kept SVB Ties Secret While Lobbying For Bailout
WEDNESDAY, MAR 15, 2023 – 10:00 PM
Multimillionaire California Governor Gavin Newsom failed to disclose his ties to Silicon Valley Bankwhile lobbying the White House and the Treasury Department over a pending bailout, The Intercept reported on Tuesday.
The White House “acted swiftly and decisively to protect the American economy and strengthen public confidence in our banking system,” Newsom said in a statement. What Newsom didn’t mention is that it also protected his own companies if they held over $250,000 in deposits.
CADE, Odette, and PlumpJack, three wineries owned by Newsom, are listed as clients of SVB on the bank’s website. Newsom also maintained personal accounts at SVB for years, according to a longtime former employee of Newsom’s who handled his finances, and who requested anonymity to avoid professional reprisal.
Newsom also failed to mention his wife’s professional ties to the bank. In 2021, SVB gave $100,000 to a charity founded by Jennifer Siebel Newsom, the California Partners Project, at the request of Newsom. SVB Capital President, John China, sits on the Board of Directors of the charity.
On Monday, Newsom said that he had “been in touch with the highest levels of leadership at the White House and Treasury.”
“Governor Newsom’s business and financial holdings are held and managed by a blind trust, as they have been since he was first elected governor in 2018,” said Newsom spokesman Nathan Click.
Of note, when asked during his 2018 campaign whether he would divest from his companies which might pose an ‘ethics challenge,’ Newsom reportedly replied: “These are my babies, my life, my family. I can’t do that. I can’t sell them.”
Instead, he announced the blind trust, which would be controlled by family friend and attorney, Shyla Hendrickson – an arrangement under which Newsom’s sister, Hillary Newsom, would retain her role as president of PlumpJack Group – a Newsom owned company which includes hotels, restaurants, wineries, bars and liquor stores.
Credit Suisse’s biggest backer says can’t put up more cash; share down by a fifth “We cannot because we would go above 10%. It’s a regulatory issue,” SNB chairman Ammar Al Khudairy said in an interview with Reuters. The Saudi bank holds a 9.88% stake in Credit Suisse, according to Refinitiv data… https://t.co/58qK8Tf5qw
FT: Credit Suisse appeals to Swiss central bank for show of support Credit Suisse has appealed to the Swiss National Bank for a public show of support after its shares cratered as much as 30 per cent… Separately, the European Central Bank has asked EU lenders to disclose their exposures to the Swiss lender… https://www.ft.com/content/0324c5a6-cecd-4fb3-85b3-7cdc99a33e4e
FT: EU to speed up work on rules for failing banks in response to US crisis …would ensure a more consistent treatment of lenders that get into trouble, reducing the risk of drawing on public funds. The legislation was expected earlier this month, but has been delayed… https://www.ft.com/content/d6babb46-a25d-4378-9ed6-f861d378fb1b
The euro tumbled 2% to a low of $1.0516, the lowest level since January 6.
@bespokeinvest: The yield on the 1-month T-Bill went from 4.26% earlier this morning down to 3.57% and back up to 3.96% now (noon ET). How’s that for liquidity.
Wall Street titans warn of crisis after SVB’s failure: ‘Canary in the coal mine’https://trib.al/LlmympK
SVB says Goldman Sachs was buyer of portfolio it booked losses on It booked a $1.8 billion loss, a transaction that set-in motion the failure of SVB… The portfolio SVB sold to Goldman Sachs on March 8 consisted mostly of U.S. Treasuries and had a book value of $23.97 billion, SVB said. The transaction was carried out “at negotiated prices” and netted the bank $21.45 billion in proceeds, SVB added… https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/goldman-sachs-bought-svbs-bond-portfolio-lender-says-2023-03-14/
ESHs plunged on Credit Suisse’s plight; but they hit a daily bottom at 8:45 ET. Despite the ominous threat to the global financial system, the usual suspects had to get long for the expected pre-NYSE open rally and the Weird Wednesday upward manipulation! You can’t make this up!
ESHs soared 44 handles by 9:41 ET. A jagged ‘A-B-C’ decline then appeared; it ended at 13:00 ET. The usual suspects then aggressively bought ESHs and stocks. ESHs soared 41 handles, in 10 minutes, after the 14:15 VIX Fix. Despite a global financial crisis and looming recession, traders aggressively bought ESHs and stocks for the expiry manipulation and FOMO on the Fed pivot rally! You can’t make this up!
The rally coincided with a report that Switzerland would explore options to stabilize Credit Suisse. As we keep harping, most equity traders have a greater FOMO on the Fed pivot rally than downside risks.
SNB Will Provide Liquidity to Credit Suisse if Necessary – BBG 15:21 ET. SNB: No Indication of Direct Contagion Risk for Swiss Entities – BBG 15:24 ET
SNB and FINMA issue statement on market uncertainty The Swiss National Bank SNB and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA assert that the problems of certain banks in the USA do not pose a direct risk of contagion for the Swiss financial markets. The strict capital and liquidity requirements applicable to Swiss financial institutions ensure their stability. Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks. If necessary, the SNB will provide CS with liquidity… Regulation in Switzerland requires all banks to maintain capital and liquidity buffers that meet or exceed the minimum requirements of the Basel standards. Furthermore, systemically important banks have to meet higher capital and liquidity requirements. This allows negative effects of major crises and shocks to be absorbed… https://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20230315/source/pre_20230315.en.pdf
After the ESH rally on the above Credit Suisse headline, ESHs and stocks then traded sideways, in a wide range, until they broke lower near 15:40 ET. Someone manipulated ESH from 3901.25 at 15:51 ET to 3930.50 at the close.
US Treasury Reviewing Bank Exposure to Credit Suisse – BBG 12:56 ET
@nickgerli1: US Treasury Yields plummet an insane 80bps the last two days. Biggest drop in yield since 1987 Crash. Bigger than… after 9/11 and Lehman Brothers. Is a market collapse coming? https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1636044468745912326
Berkshire Hathaway to beef up risk disclosures following SEC request The SEC’s division of corporate finance asked Berkshire to “enhance” its riskmanagement disclosures in its annual proxy filings, and Berkshire agreed to make the requested changes…The SEC sought more disclosures on how Berkshire’s board addresses short- and long-term risks, the extent to which the board speaks with management and outside experts to identify future risks, and why the board oversees risk management instead of delegating it to a committee… https://t.co/CJbeZA2BvP
Positive aspects of previous session Fangs rallied sharply on flight to safety and expiration-related buying Stocks did not collapse; the DJIA should have been down 3%+
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks tumbled on Credit Suisse Gold and bonds soared on flight to safety Industrial commodities plunged on recession fright Gasoline plunged over 5% on recession fright.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who else is in trouble? How many more ‘problems’ are lurking?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3874.81 Previous session High/Low: 3894.26; 3838.24
Financial destruction leads to economic destruction. The markets are frantically pricing in recession.
Goldman Sachs slashes U.S. GDP forecast, warns of economic ripple effects from banking rout Jan Hatzius slashed his 2023 GDP forecast by 0.3% in a new note out Wednesday afternoon. Hatzius is now looking for full-year GDP growth of 1.2%… https://yhoo.it/42qF49Y
The enormous mogul on the downhill run is inflation. Though commodities are tumbling, how much will service inflation decline. What’s worse than a recession? An inflationary recession, which socialist countries characteristically suffer.
Years of ZIRP, NZIRP, NIRP, QT, and central bank rigging of markets have consequences. The longer the wait for normalization, the greater the severity of the adjustment. It is impossible to fathom the severity of problems that already exist in financial institutions, looming problems, and germinating woes.
The Federal Reserve has announced it will launch the service FedNow in July, which will allow banks to instantly transfer payments across the financial system – Reuters.
First Republic Banks Is Said to Wight Options Including a Sale – BBG 19:32 ET
Today – Oblivious traders will still fool around and play for the expiry manipulation. However, there are too many unknown risks and factors in the global markets now. Stay away; wait for news and developments. Only play if you must! There is no telling what evil lurks out there!
ESHs sank to -3.50 from +6.50 on First Republic; they are +7.50 at 20:30 ET cuz traders are bullish.
Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 205k, Continuing Claims 1.709m; Feb Import Prices Index -0.2% m/m & -1.1% y/y, ex-petro +0.1% m/m; Feb Housing Starts 1.345m, Permits 1.31m; Phil Fed Business Outlook -15.0
(Dem Sen, PA) John Fetterman could remain hospitalized for 2 more weeks as docs try to get meds ‘exactly right’: reporthttps://t.co/wTpiKw7tMm
@ProfMJCleveland: I cannot adequately convey how damaging to our national defense it was that todestroy Trump, the IC has destroyed Americans trust in EVERYTHING…FISA, DARPA, FBI/CIA, Gang of Eight, HIPSC, Claims of foreign interference, …EVERYTHING.
@ColumbiaBugle: Tucker Carlson Asks Where All the Money We’re Sending to Ukraine Is Going “So, we’ve spent more than Russia’s typical annual military budget in Ukraine and the Ukrainian military is out of ammunition again? Ok, that might be a question for Zelensky. Where’s all the money going?!… https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1636161247237341185
“The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it.’ — George Orwell
Beware the Ides of March!
GREG HUNTER REPORT//
Greg Hunter
I will see you TOMORROW
STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, I WILL ONLY DO ABBREVIATED COMMENTARIES
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