MAY 4/2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Editi

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $19.00 TO $2047.20

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP 53 CENTS   AT $25.95

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE $2050.00

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 26.06

GOLD AND SILVER ARE BREAKING OUT. GOLD INTRADAY SURPASSED ITS RECORD HGH OF 2069 BUT FELL BACK ON BANK SHORT SELLING. THE KEY TO WATCH IS SILVER IF IT BREAKS 26.25. IT BROKE INTO THE $26.00 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

Bitcoin morning price:, $29,209  UP 419  Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $28,845  UP 55 dollars

Platinum price closing  $1041.25 DOWN $16.75

Palladium price;     $1458.69 UP $26.90

“Our government… teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy.” … Louis D Brandeis (former Supreme Court Justice)

GO GATA!

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,775.35 UP 10.20 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35*) ALL TIME HIGH HIT TODAY//CLOSING

BRITISH GOLD: 1630.29 UP 13.20 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)*ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH TODAY

EURO GOLD: 1861.21 UP 7.56 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)*//ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

 CAPITAL 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1100
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 242 264
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 18 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 9
880 H CITIGROUP 1234
905 C ADM 1

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TOTAL: 1,503 1,503

JPMorgan stopped 264/1503 contracts

FOR MAY:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2023. CONTRACT:  1503 NOTICES FOR 150,300 OZ  or  4.6749 TONNES

total notices so far: 4495 contracts for 449,500 oz (13.981 tonnes)

FOR  MAY:

SILVER NOTICES: 26 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 130,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :  1718 for 8,565,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $13.90

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///

INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES 

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 11 CENTS AT THE SLV//

SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.174 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 467.244 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 85 CONTRACTS  TO 142,490 AND CLOSER TO THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  $0.11 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.11). AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF  1861 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 600 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 3 MILLION OZ// (  THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 3 MILLION OZ.)  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A HUMONGOUS  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1861 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  13.105 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 5,000 OZ(E.FP.’S LOWER THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING)+ 3.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK(RAISES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING):THUS TOTAL OF 15.735 MILLION OZ OF STANDING FOR DELIVERY  V)   TINY SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –133  CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 4 days, total 3271 contracts:   OR 16.355 MILLION OZ . (818 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  16.355 MILLION OZ 

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE 

APRIL  118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 16.355 MILLION OZ/INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 85  CONTRACTS WITH OUR  $0.11 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1861  ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF  13.105 MILLION  OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP OF 5,000 OZ (DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) +//  + 3.00 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK  TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //TOTAL STANDING 12.735 MILLION OZ + 3.0 MILLION = 15.735 MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1813 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 

 WE HAD 26  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  130,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A HUGE SIZED 10,400  CONTRACTS  TO 504,938 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: removed 734  CONTRACTS

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 11,134 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR  $13.90 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY. AT 3.5085 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A MONSTROUS 130,200  OZ QUEUE. JUMP :(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of   COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $13.90 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 13,770  OI CONTRACTS (42.830 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3370 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 504,938

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,770 CONTRACTS  WITH 10,400 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3370 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,770 CONTRACTS OR 42.830 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3370 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (10,400 //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 13,770 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.5085 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTROUS QUEUE JUMP  OF 130,200 OZ // NEW STANDING: 14.0281 TONNES   // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4)  HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  12,193 CONTRACTS OR 1,219,300 OZ OR 37.925 TONNES IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3040 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  37.925 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  37.925/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.070% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY: 37.925 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 48  CONTRACTS OI TO  142,490 AND  FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022 

EFP ISSUANCE 1861  CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY  1861  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1861  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 48 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1891 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1813 CONTRACTS 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTAL 9.065 MILLION OZ 

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.11 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

 2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

 

THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.18 PTS OR .82%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 249.57 POINTS OR  1.27%      /The Nikkei closed   //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.01 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.9120 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP  TO 6.9153 /Oil DOWN TO 68.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 73.54 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING 6.9120 AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER AT 6.9153

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3  CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 10,400 CONTRACTS UP TO 504,204 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.90 ON WEDNESDAY,

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3370  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  JUNE 3370 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3370 CONTRACTS 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GIGANTIC SIZED TOTAL OF 13,770  CONTRACTS IN THAT 4470 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 10,400 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.90. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:    MAY  (14.028) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2003:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 14.028 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $13.90) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR GIGANTIC  SIZED GAIN OF 13,770 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  

 WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 45.113 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY. (3.5085 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  QUEUE JUMP OF 130,200 oz (4.049 TONNES)//NEW STANDING 14.028 TONNES  ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH  OUR GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $13.90

WE HAD –REMOVED 734    CONTRACTS  TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13,770  CONTRACTS OR 1,377,000  OZ OR 42.830 TONNES.

Estimated gold comex today 319.984// GOOD

final gold volumes/yesterday    250,847  fair

//MAY 4/ MAY  2023 CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	578.72 oz 18 KILOBARS Brinks         .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	21,798.378 OZ Brinks 678 kilobars
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	160,755.000 Oz JPM 5,000 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today	1503  notice(s) 150,300 OZ 4.6749 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	15  contracts    1500 oz 0.0466 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	4495 notices 449,500  OZ 13.981 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits:  0

total deposits: nil oz

 customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Brinks:   578.720 oz (18 kilobars)

total withdrawals: 578.72    oz 

Adjustments; 1

ii) customer to dealer Manfra:  3,858.125  oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.

For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 1518  contracts having LOST 442 contracts.  We had 1744 contracts filed

on WEDNESDAY, so we gained  a monstrous 1302 contracts or an additional 130,200 oz (4.049 tonnes) will stand for gold in this non active delivery month of May.

June GAINED 2780  contracts UP to 381,388 contracts.

July added 135 contracts to stand at 759 contracts.

AUGUST GAINED 6765 contracts up to 74,503 contracts

We had 1518 contracts filed for today representing  151,800 oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  240  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1503   contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 264  notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,495 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAY 1518  CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 1503 x 100 oz per contract equals 451,000 OZ  OR 14.028 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON-   active month of May. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:  No of notices filed so far (4,495 x 100 oz)+1518 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1503)x 100 oz} which equals 451,000 oz standing OR 14.028 TONNES 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 14.028 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.  

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,678,143.492  OZ   52.197 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,518,837.019 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  12,385,372.015   (385,23  tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,133,515.004  O Z  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,707,229 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 333.03 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

MAY 4//2023// THE MAY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	988,476.636 oz Brinks CNT Manfra .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	323,570.182 oz Manfra
No of oz served today (contracts)	26  CONTRACT(S)    (130,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	834 contracts  (4,170,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1713 Contracts  (8,565,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0

total: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) into Manfra: 323,570.182 oz

Total deposits: 323,570.182  oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139,607  million oz/269.022 million =51.67% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of Brinks 4916.450 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 393,973.800 oz

iii) Out of manfra 589,586.380 oz

Total withdrawals; 988,476.636    oz

adjustments: 3  all  dealer to customer 

a)JPMorgan  880,618.750 oz

b)Brinks  54,341.420 oz

c) Manfra: 251,190.610 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 31.301 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 269.022 million oz

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2023 OI: 860   CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1  CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS FILED

ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE LOST 1 CONTRACT  OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS VERY

ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS, FOR THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW,  THESE GUYS WERE E.F.P.’d TO LONDON AS NO SILVER COULD BE FOUND OVER HERE..

.JUNE HAD A 36 CONTRACT GAIN TO 908

JULY HAD A 517 CONTRACT LOSS TO 120,710 CONTRACTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 26 for 130,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  70,169  GOOD 

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 54,772  FAIR

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1713 x  5,000 oz = 8,565,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(860) and the number of notices served upon today 26 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAY/2023 contract month:  1713 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of May (860) – number of notices served upon today (26 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates to 12.735 million oz  + THE CRIMINAL 3.0 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL 15.735 MILLION OZ// 

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $19.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.47 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES

MAY 2/WITH GOLD UP $32.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES/

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES

APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15  TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91

APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES

APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES

MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 928.34 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MAY 4/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .174 MILLION OZ INTO SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.174 MILLION OZ//

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.070 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.482 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.103 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.182 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.102 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.285 MILLION OZ

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387  MILLION OZ.

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ

APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942  MILLION OZ

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION  OZ

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ

MARCH 23  WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 467.174 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

TODAY: MATHEW PEIPENBURG:

Matthew Piepenburg
May 4, 2023

Below we look at the math, history and current oil environment in the backdrop of a global debt crisis to better predict currency and gold market direction without the need of tarot cards.

Seeing the Future: Math vs. Crystal Balls

Those looking forward only need to look at current and backward math to make relatively clear forecasts without risking the mug’s game of deriving crystal ball predictions.

Not surprisingly, the theme and math of simple (as well as appalling) US debt levels makes such forward-thinking almost too simple.

The Oil Issue: Is Anti-Shale Anti-American?

Although not as fluent as others in the oil trade or the green politics of the extreme US left, I’ve argued in prior reports that the current administration’s anti-shale policies make for some good (debatable?) environmental chest-puffing while ignoring the math, history and science of sound national as well as well as global thinking.

(But then again, the entire woke fiasco of current US policy seems to be on a crusade to cancel such things as math, history and science; so, thinking contextually or globally is beyond their sound-bite-driven stump-speeches.)

Oil, however, still matters.

And when understood in the broader context of the macro-economic themes we’ve tracked for years–namely debt, currencies, inflation, gold, a cornered Fed and a weaponized USD–the current and future trends are already in motion.

And as for the endless debate as to global warming, butterfly-friendly energy policies and the simple reality of fossil fuels as a part of, rather than threat to, our planet, I’m certainly not here to answer or solve the same.

Certainly the Germans (and their solar powered ideas in a part of Europe with very little sun) are not getting it… In fact, they are getting much of their (nuclear) energy from France and are now forced to burn coal to get through the winter.

I am here, however, to lay down some objective facts and ask some blunt questions.

Oil Politics

Biden, it seems fairly clear to all, is not in charge of US policy.

That’s a scary fact. Even more scary, however, is determining who is in charge?

Again, not something I can answer.

But if he were in charge, we’d all be amused to ask how he expected Saudi Arabia to welcome him and his embarrassing pleas for Saudi production increases (to ostensibly ease inflated US fuel costs) after previously telling the world he considered Saudi Arabia a pariah state…

We all remember that embarrassing fist-pump with the Crown Prince.

Meanwhile, Saudi is now spending far more time with the Chinese and Iran…

We’d also love to hear the White House explain how it expects increased US shale production to reduce energy inflation when it has been simultaneously seeking to legislate oil off the American page.

Furthermore, it would be worth reminding Americans and politicians tired of inflated fuel prices that the vast majority of those inflated pump costs are due to US taxes per gallon, not Saudi production cuts.

But I digress.

Oil Math

At the current levels of US oil production and exploration, the US (according to its own Dallas Fed) will have to engage in annual energy price inflation levels of 8-10% just to keep the oil industry’s lights on at a breakeven price level.

Such conservative inflation figures for oil/fuel pricing, when seen in the context of over $31T in US Federal debt, basically means that Uncle Sam’s ability to cover his ever-increasing public debt burden will weaken by at least 8-10% per year at a moment in US history where Uncle Sam needs all the help, rather than weakness, he can get.

Fighting Inflation with Inflation, and Debt with Debt?

Needless to say, the only “solution” to these inflated debt burdens will be the monetary mouse-clicker at the Eccles Building, whose doom-loop (yet now ossified) “solution” to addressing inflated oil prices is the even more inflationary policy of printing more fake money to “fakely” cure an inflation crisis.

You really can’t make this stuff up.

Fed monetary policy, ever since patient-zero Greenspan sold his soul (and sound-money, gold-backed academic thesis) to Wall Street and Washington, boils down to this: We can solve a debt crisis with more debt, and an inflation crisis with more, well…inflation.

Does this seem like “sound monetary policy” to you?

Or, Just Export Your Inflation to the Rest of the World?

But as I’ve warned for years, Uncle Sam’s first instinct (as holder of the world reserve currency) whenever handed a hot-potato of self-inflicted inflation, is to hand it off to the rest of the world—i.e., to export his inflation to friends and foes alike.

Global energy importers in Europe, emerging markets, India, China, and Japan, for example, are facing what accountants call a balance of payments crisis, but what I’ll bluntly call by its real name: A currency crisis.

That is, under the current, but potentially dying petrodollar system, these countries will need more USDs to buy oil.

But that’s where the problem lies.

Why?

Simple: Those USDs are drying up (unless more are printed).

How Long Will Global Currencies (& Leaders) Remain Prisoner to the USD?

Regardless of whether you believe in the perpetual hegemony of the USD as a payment system or not, we can all agree that USD liquidity is drying up (whether it be from the milk-shake theory absorption in euro-dollar and derivative markets or from post-sanction de-dollarization).

Nations facing the double whammy of needing more USDs to pay for inflated oil prices and inflated USD-denominated debts around the globe are going to being crying “uncle!” rather than just “Uncle Sam.”

What can these nations do in the face of that bullying hot potato known as the USD? How can they service these increased USD payment (oil and debt) burdens?

How the US Creates a Global Currency Crisis

Well, short of turning their backs on the USD (not yet), the only current option other nations have is to devalue (i.e., inflate and debase) their own currencies at home, which is how Uncle Sam makes his problem just about everybody else’s problem…

As I often say, with friends like the US, who needs enemies?

Something, however, has to give.

How Physical Gold Offers Better Pricing than Fiat Dollars

This clearly broken system of the US exporting its inflation upon a world forced since the 1970’s to import oil under a broken and inflationary Greenback has a genuine potential to implode.

Already, countries like Ghana have realized that it’s better to trade oil in real gold rather than fake fiat dollars.

Long before the petrodollar became the mad king, for example, history recognized that physical gold was a far better instrument of payment to settle stable oil pricing.

See for yourself.

As more and more of the world recognizes the currency crisis slowly in play now, and then steadily in greater pain tomorrow, this “Balance of Payments” (i.e., currency) crisis can easily evolve into a “change of payments” reality in which gold re-emerges as a superior payment system for oil.

Think about that.

More Tailwinds for Gold

As of this writing, the physical oil markets are greater than 15X the size of the physical gold markets on an annualized (USD) production basis.

If the world turns slowly (then all at once?) toward settling oil in gold (partially or fully) to avoid a global currency crisis, gold will have to be repriced at levels significantly higher than current pricing.

Hmmm.

Something worth tracking, no?

Well, the Zeitgeist suggests that we are not the only ones tracking these trends…

The Central Banks Are Catching On to (and Stacking) Gold

A recent pole of over 80 central banks holding greater than $7T in FX reserves indicated that 2 out of 3 polled strongly believe that central banks will be making more, not less, purchases of physical gold in 2023.

Again: Are you seeing a trend? Are you seeing the context? Are you seeing why?

As I’ve said countless times and will say countless times more: Debt matters.

Debt matters because debt, once it crosses the Rubicon of insanity and unsustainability, impacts everything we market jocks were supposed to have been taught in school and in the office—namely bonds, currencies, inflation and recessionary cycles follow debt cycles.

In short: It’s all tied together.

Once you understand debt, the policies, reactions, weaknesses, truths, lies, and cycles are far easier to see rather than just “predict.”

The increasing loss of faith in the world reserve currency and its embarrassing IOUs (i.e., USTs) is not merely the domain of “gold bugs” but the simple and historical consequence of the blunt math which always follows broken regimes, of which the US is and will be no exception.

The graph below, is thus worth repeating, as the world is clearly turning away from Uncle Sam’s drunken bar tabof debased dollars and IOUs toward something more finite in supply yet more infinite in duration.

Again: See the trend?

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Russia will only be happy with one currency: gold

(Reuters/GATA)

India and Russia suspend talks to settle trade in rupees

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-05-04 06:56Section: Daily Dispatches

But both nations seem to have a lot of a stronger currency, a shiny yellow metal. …

* * *

By Aftab Ahmed and Swati Bhat
Reuters
Thursday, May 4, 2023

India and Russia have suspended efforts to settle bilateral trade in rupees, after months of negotiations failed to convince Moscow to keep rupees in its coffers, two Indian government officials and a source with direct knowledge of the matter said.

This would be a major setback for Indian importers of cheap oil and coal from Russia who were awaiting a permanent rupee payment mechanism to help lower currency conversion costs.

With a high trade gap in favour of Russia, Moscow believes it will end up with an annual rupee surplus of over $40 billion if such a mechanism is worked out and feels rupee accumulation is “not desirable,” an Indian government official, who did not want to be named, told Reuters. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/india-russia-suspend-negotiations-settle-trade-rupees-sources-2023-05-04/

END

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

Newmont Merger Would Create The World’s Biggest Gold Miner

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 01:15 PM

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice

The board of Australia’s Newcrest Mining has recommended the latest takeover offer of bigger sector player Newmont, which last month valued the target company at $19.5 billion.

“The latest offer is one that the board would be prepared to recommend subject to successful due diligence during the period,” interim Newcrest chief executive Sherry Duhe said this week, as quoted by Bloomberg.

“This transaction would strengthen our position as the world’s leading gold company by joining two of the sector’s top senior gold producers and setting the new standard in safe, profitable and responsible mining,” Newmont’s chief executive TomPalmer said, as quoted by Reuters,  after the announcement of the latest offer.

Newmont first made a non-binding offer for Newcrest in February, which valued the company at $16.9 billion, but Newcrest rejected that as too low. Then the gold miner tried again, sweetening the offer.

If a deal does materialize, it will bring Newmont’s gold output much higher—twice as high as the output of its rival, Barrick Gold, according to Reuters. It would also constitute the third-largest deal involving an Australian company as well as the third-largest M&A deal this year, the news outlet noted.

According to Bloomberg, the deal would also boost Newmont’s presence in copper: the basic metal, which is essential for the energy transition, makes up a quarter of Newcrest’s total output at present, but the company wants to boost that to 50% by 2030.

Copper is indispensable for wind and solar farm wiring and for EV engines. Yet supply of the metal is under threat because of insufficient new mining capacity coming on stream and falling ore grades.

Warnings of a looming copper shortage have been multiplying in recent months, but they have not yet made any forecasters budge on their expectations of an EV boom combined with a wind and solar boom.

END

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: 

end

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

 1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS// THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED  UP AT 6.9120

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9153

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.18 PTS OR .82% 

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 249,57  PTS OR  1.27%

2. Nikkei closed 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR: ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN  TO  100.95 EURO FALLS TO 1.1067 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.415 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 134.42 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP  CHINESE YUAN:  UP//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.268***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.166*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.356…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.087

3j Gold at $2041.95 silver at: 25.58 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND  98 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 78.30//

3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and  72  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 134.42  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .415% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8851 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9795 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc. 

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.349 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.703 DOWN 1  BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.816 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.49…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 4 BASIS PTS AT 3.739

end

2.  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Slide As Fed Pauses Rate Hikes, Regional Banks Resume Plunge

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 08:03 AM

US stocks were set to open lower, reversing a modest gain earlier and extending a three-day selloff as investors weighed the possibility of more bank failures against a pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as growth slows. Contracts on the S&P 500 were down 0.3% as of 7:45 a.m. ET while Nasdaq 100 futures were flat. The benchmark S&P 500 had slid on Wednesday, marking its longest losing streak in nearly two months even as the Fed signaled a possible pause in its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades. Sentiment was routed as US regional banks tumbled further even after PacWest said its deposits rose since March and confirmed a Bloomberg report that it’s talking with potential investors in a bid to calm markets. The stock slumped as much as 45% premarket. And Western Alliance was down 23%, though it claimed it hasn’t seen unusual deposit flows.

Treasury yields kneejerked higher but have also since reversed as worries over the impending debt-ceiling deadline weigh.  A measure of the dollar is weakening as traders hike recession bets, and gold has steadied after jumping to just shy of record highs on news that the Fed may pause tightening. Iron ore is declining, while copper gains as concerns mount around global supply. Oil rose, recovering after a sudden dip early in the session on Thursday as Chinese traders returned after a break.

In premarket trading, PacWest Bancorp shares slumped as much as 46% with other regional lenders also plunging, after the Los Angeles-based bank confirmed that it is weighing strategic options. Western Alliance shares fell as much as 24%, headed for a fifth straight day of declines, as confidence in regional lenders remains shaky. The Arizona-based lender sought to reassure the market with an update on deposits after US markets closed, saying that it hasn’t seen unusual deposit flows following the sale of First Republic Bank. First Horizon stock was thrashed after TD terminated its planned $13.4 billion acquisition of the Memphis-based bank, citing uncertainty over a regulatory approval timeline. TD will fork out $200 million in cash to get out of the deal. TripAdvisor also dropped after the online travel company reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share that missed consensus estimates. On the other end, Arconic surged 28% after a report that private equity firm Apollo Global Management was nearing a deal to buy the industrial-parts manufacturer. Here are all the notable premarket movers:

• Qualcomm falls as much as ~6.7% in premarket trading, after the chipmaker gave a third-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected. Analysts say the guidance shows that weakness in the smartphone market will persist until September.
• TripAdvisor shares drop 8.2% in premarket trading after the online travel company reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share that missed consensus. Analysts flagged the performance of the company’s Viator business, which they said was the main driver behind the miss on adjusted Ebitda.
• Upwork shares drop as much as 14% in US premarket trading, set to hit a three-year low, after the online recruitment company cut its full-year revenue forecast. Analysts lowered their price targets on the stock, seeing an impact on spending from a tough macroeconomic backdrop, though some brokers were positive on the steps the company is taking to progress toward profitability.
• Etsy shares gained in extended trading, after the online retailer reported first- quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that Bloomberg Intelligence sees as encouraging.
• Zillow Group advanced in extended trading, after the online real estate company gave a revenue outlook for the current period that at the midpoint of the forecast range topped the average analyst estimate. Analysts are positive on the report, and highlight the company’s Premier Agent offering as notably strong.

US stocks slumped to start the month of May as glum economic data has fueled concerns about a possible recession.  The Fed on Wednesday hiked rates as expected, while pausing the tightening process even as Chair Jerome Powell said his forecast was for modest growth and not a recession, and said he disagrees with the staff’s bearish consensus. But he reiterated that the process of getting inflation down had a long way to go.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said hopes that a rate cut might come before the end of the year faded after the Fed’s statement. “It’s clear inflation is still not coming down as fast as policymakers hoped,” she said. “It looks like the hiking cycle is now at an end, but the door to another rise is still slightly ajar and that’s still causing nervousness given that rates are already at the highest level for 16 years.”

“The tightening in credit conditions will put some significant downward pressure on the economy,” Michelle Girard, head of US for NatWest Markets, said on Bloomberg Television. “You will see the Fed in a position to move policy to a less restrictive stance sooner than what the Fed chairman today was suggesting.”

Meanwhile, strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management said even a pause in hikes by the Fed may not necessarily spur a rally in equities as those expectations should now be baked in. In past cycles, the S&P 500 typically didn’t bottom until after the Fed started to cut rates, the team led by Mark Haefele wrote in a note.

“The ECB meeting is expected to be a more complex one compared to that of the Federal Reserve,” said Erick Muller, director of product and investment strategy at Muzinich & Co. “If no one doubts the ECB will raise rates again at this week meeting, the magnitude of the rise and the tone of the communication are difficult to forecast.”

European stocks are on the back foot as investors count down to a rate decision from the European Central Bank later today. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.7% with media, real estate and autos the worst-performing sectors. Energy names have outperformed, led higher by Shell who maintained the pace of share buybacks after quarterly profit topped estimates.  Here are the most notable European movers:

• Shell rises as much as 3.5%, the most since April 3, after the oil major’s quarterly profit beat expectations, with strong performances across divisions and particularly its gas business, analysts say
• Equinor rises as much as 4.4% after reporting 1Q profits that beat estimates. Analysts say the firm exceeded expectations across all key divisions as higher production offset lower oil and gas prices
• Hargreaves Lansdown shares rise as much as 4.5% after the investment platform’s net new business flows in its fiscal 3Q topped expectations, offsetting a small deterioration in asset retention
• Next shares rise as much as 2.7%, best performer in the Stoxx 600 Retail Index, after the UK clothing and furnishings seller’s 1Q sales beat estimates despite the cold weather
• Scout24 rises as much as 4.4% after digital marketplace operator reported better-than-expected revenue and Ebitda in 1Q thanks to strong growth in its core business as well as cost cuts
• Novo Nordisk falls as much as 6.5% after its blockbuster obesity drug Wegovy missed estimates due to supply woes. Analysts say their 1Q update, while beating expectations, otherwise held few surprises
• Airbus shares fell as much as 3.2% as analysts said the quarterly update indicates continued supply-chain challenges at the planemaker, which may weigh further on its delivery numbers for the year
• Zalando shares drop as much as 7.7% to the lowest since March after the online fast fashion retailer reported 1Q earnings, with Citigroup analysts noting caution around elevated inventory levels
• Leonardo falls as much as 7.5% and are the lead decliners on the FTSE MIB index after the Italian defense company reported what analysts called disappointing first-quarter results at the Ebita level
• Rheinmetall shares fall 3.8% after the German defense company’s first quarter operating profit misses estimates due to rising costs. Stifel says results were expected to be weak but “came in weaker”
• Virgin Money shares drop as much as 11%, the most since November 2020, as analysts flagged higher costs and impairments for the UK lender, which offset a small net interest income beat
• Casino shares plunge as much as 17% after the debt- laden French supermarket operator reported 1Q sales that missed the average analyst estimate

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed as the dollar weakened on bets the Federal Reserve will pause interest-rate hikes, while Chinese shares ended flat as traders returned from the Golden Week holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.6%. The Fed hinted the latest hike could be the last one in its policy decision Wednesday, although pushed back against market expectations of rate cuts this year. Utilities and energy shares led broad-based gains. Onshore China stocks pared losses to close little changed as trading resumed following the Golden Week holidays. Concerns remain about the pace of China’s economic rebound despite strong holiday spending figures, as data showed factory activity struggled in April. Benchmarks in Hong Kong led gains in the region after falling in the previous session.

Expectations of lower US interest rates and a weaker dollar are boosting bets of outperformance for Asian equities as borrowing costs decline and US equities are weighed down by recession risks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up about 3.6% this year, lagging the S&P 500. “While a lot of people are focused on the dollar smile theory, saying risk off is good for the dollar, when the epicenter is the US that’s not necessarily the case,” Steve Brice, group chief investment officer at Standard Chartered Wealth Management, told Bloomberg Television. “If you look at the growth differentials between the developed world and Asia, and also the dollar outlook, it paints a picture of Asian equity outperformance.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index is flat having pared an earlier drop. The Swiss franc is the weakest among the G-10 currencies while the Norwegian krone sits atop the intraday rankings after the Norges Bank hiked 25bps and signaled more tightening ahead.

In rates, US yields have recouped some of Wednesday’s post-Fed losses with two-year borrowing costs initially rising 6bps to 3.86% but then sliding back to 3.81%. Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve along with European bond markets ahead of ECB rate decision at 8:15am New York time. US stock futures had opening gap lower as regional lenders continued to slump but have pared losses. US yields are higher by less than 2bp across the curve with spreads narrowly mixed after steepening sharply after Wednesday’s Fed rate increase and pause signal; 10-year yields around 3.34% outperforms bunds and gilts by ~1bp.

In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI rising 0.9% to trade near $69.20 after whipsawing at the open. Spot gold is down 0.2% around $2,035.

Bitcoin is essentially unchanged, pivoting the USD 29k mark in parameters that are even thinner than those seen at this time yesterday.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision and President Lagarde’s press conference. We’ll also get the final services and composite PMIs from Europe for April, Euro Area PPI for March, and from the US there’s the weekly initial jobless claims, the March trade balance, and nonfarm productivity in Q1. Otherwise, earnings releases include Apple. And local elections will be taking place in the UK.

Market Wrap

• S&P 500 futures down 0.3% at 4,093.5
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 460.71
• MXAP up 0.5% to 161.32
• MXAPJ up 0.6% to 514.21
• Nikkei up 0.1% to 29,157.95
• Topix down 0.1% to 2,075.53
• Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 19,948.73
• Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,350.46
• Sensex up 0.5% to 61,505.99
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,193.11
• Kospi little changed at 2,500.94
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.27%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.1045
• Brent Futures up 1.2% to $73.23/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,033.95
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 101.37

Top Overnight News

• Chinese tourist spending during one of the country’s most important national holidays has exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the first time, authorities said, in a sign of economic momentum after China ended its coronavirus containment policies. FT
• China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations in April, dipping into contraction territory at 49.5 (vs. the Street consensus of 50 and down from 50 in March). RTRS
• China’s fight against a weaponized dollar puts the yuan front and center. Its use in contracts for everything from oil to nickel is gathering speed and its share of global trade finance has tripled since the end of 2019. The US remains the world’s clear financial hegemon, but these moves help China play a bigger role in the international financial system. BBG
• The ECB is set to slow the pace of rate hikes, matching the Fed’s 25-bp move yesterday and taking the key rate to 3.25%, after its preferred inflation measure eased for the first time in 10 months. BBG
• Regional banks remain in focus after PACW announced post-close they are weighing strategic options (deposits rose since March). FHN -40% pre mkt after TD scrapped its planned $13.4 billion acquisition of the Memphis-based bank, citing uncertainty over a regulatory approval timeline. TD will pay $200 million in cash to First Horizon. FT
• Leaders on both sides of the aisle in Washington insist they won’t enact a short-term debt ceiling fix to allow more time for negotiations on a larger fiscal package. Politico 
• Bill Isaac, a former regulator credited with stabilizing the US banking system during the 1980s crisis has hit out at the decision to sell First Republic to JPMorgan Chase as he warned of “more problems” to come for regional lenders. “We are kidding ourselves if we think there are only four problem banks in the country,” Isaac said. “We have not gotten that smart. It’s been so long since we had a lot of problems, that I can’t help but think that there are going to be more problems.” FT
• Apple’s sales may have dropped for a second quarter when it reports postmarket, though share buybacks may hold up. Analysts see revenue down 5% year on year, though Bloomberg Intelligence expects higher-end iPhone sales to help the gross margin as Mac sales underwhelm. In other earnings, Peloton is up before the bell, while Lyft and Carvana report later. BBG
• Biden’s Fed picks. He’s chosen current Governor Philip Jefferson for a promotion to vice chair and will nominate economist Adriana Kugler to an open board slot, people familiar said. The selections may be announced tomorrow. Jefferson voted to raise rates by 25 bps yesterday. Kugler is currently the World Bank’s executive director for the US. BBG
• Almost half of US adults say they’re worried about the safety of their deposits in banks and other financial institutions — levels of concern as high or higher than during the 2008 financial crisis….(BBG)

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting where the Fed delivered a widely expected 25bps rate hike and paved the way for a pause, although Fed Chair Powell pushed back against cutting rates this year and alluded to banks tightening lending standards and slowing the pace of lending. ASX 200 was lacklustre amid weakness in its top-weighted financial sector after big four bank NAB’s H1 profit missed analysts’ estimates, although losses were cushioned by resilience in mining names and improved trade data. KOSPI was subdued as participants digested mixed earnings results, while Nikkei 225 remain closed. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were firmer as mainland participants returned from the golden week break with Chinese markets shrugging off the surprise contraction in Caixin Manufacturing PMI and the PBoC’s significant liquidity drain, as well as the HKMA’s 25bps rate hike in lockstep with the Fed.

Top Asian News

• PBoC injected CNY 33bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.00% for a CNY 529bln net drain.
• HKMA raised its base rate by 25bps to 5.50%, as expected.
• Chinese airlines will be allowed to expand their flights to the US, according to FT.

European equities, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, trade mostly lower following the post-FOMC selling pressure in US indices. Equity sectors in Europe are mostly lower in what has been a busy morning for corporates. To the downside, Media and Auto names lag while Energy names are the clear outperformer in what has been a tough week for the sector amid declines in underlying crude prices, with upside also spurred by Shell’s +1.8% update. US equity futures have spent the morning slightly better than flat in an attempted recovery following the Fed rate decision and further jitters on the regional banking front, with PACW’s shares plunging over 50% in after hours trade. PacWest (PACW) has reportedly been approached by several potential partners and investors, according to Bloomberg.. -35% in the pre-market.

Top European News

• UK March Mortgage Approvals Unexpectedly Rise to 5-Month High
• UK April Composite PMI 54.9 vs Flash Reading 53.9
• Norway Hikes by Quarter-Point Again as Krone Woes Fester
• European Gas Prices Ease as IEA Sees Weaker Demand This Year
• Bud Light Brewer AB InBev Beats Forecasts on Strong Pricing
• Casino Plunges After 1Q Net Sales Misses Estimates
• European Stocks Retreat as Investors Await ECB After Fed Hike

FX

• DXY defends 101.000 in post-FOMC aftermath, as EUR/USD rejects 1.1100 in the run-up to the ECB amidst mixed EZ PMIs and a raft of hefty option expiries.
• Kiwi retains momentum above 0.6200 vs Buck and around 1.0700 vs Aussie as NZ building consents rebound firmly, AUD/USD underpinned within a 0.6699-41 band after export-led wider than forecast trade surplus.
• Pound perky near new YTD peak vs Buck just under 1.2600 with impetus from upgraded UK services and composite PMIs.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9054 vs exp. 6.9061 (prev. 6.9240)
• Norges Bank Key Policy Rate: 3.25% vs. Exp. 3.25% (Prev. 3.0%); policy rate will most likely be raised further in June. If NOK remains weaker than projected or pressures in the economy persist, a higher policy rate than envisaged earlier may be needed.
• Brazil Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 13.75%, as expected. BCB said it will assess if the strategy of maintaining the Selic rate for a long period will be sufficient to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target and will persist in its strategy until consolidating disinflation and anchoring expectations around its targets.

Fixed Income

• Treasuries retain their bull-steepening trajectory post-Fed and ahead of several US data points, with T-notes holding above 116-00.
• Bunds probe 136.00 from 136.66 a peak as ECB looms and hawkish guidance is seen accompanying a 25 bp hike.
• Gilts teeter towards base of 101.37-93 range after upwardly revised UK services and composite PMIs.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent futures are firmer following the recent hefty losses in the complex. WTI June and Brent July slumped to lows of USD 63.64/bbl and USD 71.28/bbl respectively overnight as futures reopened amid banking sector woes.
• Spot gold shot higher by some USD 40/oz overnight, very briefly to a fresh all-time high on some charts, north of USD 2,080/oz. The yellow metal then immediately pulled back to levels under USD 2,050/oz and trades lower intraday in the European morning.
• Base metals are mostly firmer, underpinned by the return of the markets largest purchaser China from a five-day holiday.
• Shell (SHEL LN) CEO says they are getting close to Chinese levels of oil demand last seen in 2019; sees strong rebound in gas demand in China’s services sectors, but less in the industrial sectors.

Geopolitics

• An oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, southern Russia caught fire after a drone attack, according to TASS.
• The governor of the Russian Voronezh region announces that the air defenses shot down a drone over the city, according to Sky News Arabia citing Tass.
• Russian Foreign Ministry says “Moscow will quickly deal with Kiev’s terrorist and subversive activities”, via Al Jazeera.
• Indian and Russia suspend negotiations to settle bilateral trade in Rupees, Russia reportedly not willing to amass INR as trade gap remains large, via Reuters citing sources.
• Russia’s Kremlin says we know decisions about such terrorist acts are taking in Washington and not Kyiv; Washington is definitely behind the attack, Kremlin is well aware of this; Russia has multiple response options, response will be thought-out.

US Event Calendar

• 07:30: April Challenger Job Cuts 175.9% YoY, prior 319.4%
• 08:30: April Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 230,000
  • April Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.86m
• 08:30: March Trade Balance, est. -$63.1b, prior -$70.5b
• 08:30: 1Q Unit Labor Costs, est. 5.5%, prior 3.2%
• 08:30: 1Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. -2.0%, prior 1.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With the combination of a Fed that is now fully data dependent and further woes in the US regional banking sector before and after the closing bell, a decent survey question today might be, “when will the Fed next raise rates?”. I’d imagine the bid-offer would be somewhere between next month and only in 10 years’ time. Monetary policy clearly operates with a lag and the current US regional banking woes might be near the early stages of the fallout from this tighter policy rather than the end of it. That is a big worry. Before we recap the latest regional banking woes, let’s take a look at the Fed.

They delivered the expected 25bps hike last night with the upper bound of the target policy rate now 5.25%, the highest level it has been since 2007. The Fed also maintained their monthly pace of shrinking the balance sheet by $60bn for Treasuries and $35bn for MBS. It was a unanimous decision but the Fed dropped the phrase “some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Fed Chair Powell called the removal of the phrase “meaningful”. The Fed pointed to inflation, labour-market strength, and credit conditions as factors they will be watching to decide future policy decisions. By doing away with forward guidance and transitioning to a more “data-dependent approach”, as Chair Powell said, the Fed opened the door to pausing rate hikes next meeting.

At the press conference, Chair Powell once again addressed the recent strains in the banking system following regulators seizing First Republic on Monday. He noted that the conditions in the banking sector “broadly improved” since early March and that the financial stability tools are not at odds with the monetary policy tools. Chair Powell noted that the banking system is “sound and resilient” but that the issues in the sector are further tightening lending conditions for small businesses and households. On credit conditions, Chair Powell – who received the Senior Loan Officer Survey data ahead of the meeting – said that “these tighter credit conditions are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.”

He also noted that the survey results are consistent with what policy makers have said and other data points have showed recently – namely that lending has grown in aggregate but the pace has slowed since 2H’22. When discussing a possible recession, Chair Powell acknowledged that a mild recession is possible as the Fed’s staff forecast shows, but that “the case of avoiding a recession is in (his) view more likely than that of having a recession.” On this he pointed to the excess demand in the labour market which seems to be cooling without a surge of unemployment seen in previous periods. Lastly on a question about the current market pricing of rate cuts in 2023, Chair Powell cautioned that the FOMC is not expecting inflation to come down that quickly and that rate cuts would not be appropriate, hence why it is not in their forecast. Fed futures are now pricing in a -11.5% chance of a rate cut in June and 82.7bps of cuts by year-end. However, before the after-market weakness in regional banks fed futures closed yesterday with a smaller chance of a cut next meeting (5%). See Matt Luzzetti’s review of the FOMC here. He continues to believe that the Fed is now done but that the first cut won’t come until Q1 2024.

Before the FOMC decision, US 2 year Treasury yields were down -2.9bps with 10 year yields down around -4.5bps. The S&P 500 was up +0.33%, with the USD index down -0.5%. As the statement came out, the dollar sold off initially whilst yields and equities rose. However there was a reversal during the last hour or so of US trading with equities selling off -1.4% from just after Powell started his presser to see the S&P 500 finish -0.70% lower on the day. US 10 year yields continued to fall after a brief rate selloff with yields finishing near their lows of the day down -8.8bps at 3.335%, as 2 year yields fell -15.6bps to 3.805. That’s the lowest the 2yr and 10yr yield has been in nearly a month and down an impressive -36bps and -27bps from their intra-day peaks on Monday just before the close.

Expanding on the equity moves, 20 of 24 industry sectors were lower on the day led by further weakness in cyclicals and banks. The KBW bank index was -1.89% lower as every member ended the day lower, as regionals were under pressure yet again. PacWest Bancorp, which was down -42% over the last 5 sessions and trading at its lowest share price since March 2009, announced after the US close that it has been approached by several partners and investors. The stock was down -52.49% in after-market trading. The news and weakness of the California-based lender caused fellow regional banks Western Alliance Bancorp to fall -22.42% after-hours and Zion Bank to decline -9.09%.

With the Fed now out of the way, attention will turn to the ECB today as they make their own policy decision. In terms of what to expect, both the consensus and DB view is that they’ll slow down their rate hikes to a 25bp pace, which would take the deposit rate up to 3.25%. However, as our European economists write in their preview (link here), it’s a close call between that and 50bps, since underlying inflation remains high and a rapid return to target is far from proven. So irrespective of how much they hike by, their view is that the underlying and conditional message will be that the tightening cycle isn’t over yet. Moreover, to stop financial conditions from overreacting to a slower hike, they expect the ECB to announce faster QT, with an increase in the roll-off of APP reinvestments from €15bn per month to €20bn per month from Q3.

As we look forward to the ECB decision, European markets had put in a decent performance ahead of the Fed as we got several positive data releases from both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, the ADP’s report of private payrolls showed growth of +296k in April (vs. 150k expected), which was the strongest print since July and also above every economist’s expectation on Bloomberg. Then the ISM services index came in at 51.9 (vs. 51.8 expected), and there was also upward movement in the new orders component, which rose to 56.1. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, unemployment hit a new record low in March at 6.5% (vs. 6.6% expected). That helped the STOXX 600 (+0.31%) to recover some of the previous day’s declines but it may well all change again this morning. 10yr yields also fell back, with those on bunds (-1.1bps), OATs (-1.9bps) and BTPs (-5.5bps) all moving lower.

Despite the positive data from yesterday, commodity prices took another hit from growing fears about a recession and what that would mean for energy demand. Indeed, Brent crude fell -3.97% to close at $72.33/bbl, which is its lowest level since December 2021. It was a similar story for European natural gas prices (-1.99%), which came down to their lowest since July 2021 at €36.78/MWh. So these are big positive tailwinds for the ECB as they make their decision today, and show how the prospect of a downturn has more than outweighed the effect from the OPEC+ group limiting output only a month earlier.

This morning in Asia equity markets are mixed. Across the region, the Hang Seng (+0.96%) is outperforming with the Shanghai Composite (+0.54%) also trading in positive territory while the CSI (-0.10%) and the KOSPI (-0.22%) are slightly lower in early trade. Elsewhere, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday. In overnight trading, US stock futures have recovered with those on the S&P 500 (+0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.40%) turning positive, indicating a recovery in risk appetite.

In early morning data, we have Chinese manufacturing activity slipping into contraction territory for the first time in 3 months as the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in April from 50.0 in March, reflecting weakening market demand. Elsewhere, Australia’s trade surplus grew to a nine-month high of A$15.27 billion in March, surpassing market expectations for a surplus of A$13.0 billion, as well as February’s revised reading of A$14.15 billion, as commodity demand picked up.

On the political side, keep an eye out on the UK today, since local elections are taking place in England that will be the biggest electoral test for the main parties ahead of the next general election. In terms of where things currently stand, Politico’s polling average shows that the opposition Labour Party has a 16-point lead over the governing Conservatives, which is the biggest lead they’ve had going into a set of elections since the early 2000s. So Labour are widely expected to make gains at the Conservatives’ expense today. The more important question will be how many, and according to local election experts Rallings and Thrasher, Labour will be wanting to make gains in the high-hundreds of council seats to persuasively argue they’re on track to return to government. For the Conservatives, current polls imply they could lose over 1,000 council seats, but if they can limit that to around 750, it would suggest things aren’t as bad for them right now as the polls might suggest.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision and President Lagarde’s press conference. We’ll also get the final services and composite PMIs from Europe for April, Euro Area PPI for March, and from the US there’s the weekly initial jobless claims, the March trade balance, and nonfarm productivity in Q1. Otherwise, earnings releases include Apple. And local elections will be taking place in the UK.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

US Market Open: US futures mixed, EUR softer and UST yields steeper post-FOMC & pre-ECB – Newsquawk US Market Open

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 06:18 AM

• European bourses are pressured following the subdued APAC/US handover, stateside performance is currently mixed/rangebound with a focus on regional banks/earnings.
• DXY nears 101.50 from a 101.02 base as the Euro failed to eclipse 1.11 with peers contained ex-out/underperformance in NZD and CHF
• Crude benchmarks are firmer after an initial marked slump overnight; Shell says they are nearing 2019 levels of oil demand in China
• UST yields continue to steepen post-FOMC while EGBs have pulled back to marginal negative territory pre-ECB
• Spot gold, on some charts, hit an ATH though has since pulled back while base metals are underpinned by China’s return despite a contractionary PMI
• Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference. US Senate Banking Hearing. Earnings from Apple, Kellogg, AEP, Moderna, Paramount & Conoco.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European equities, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, trade mostly lower following the post-FOMC selling pressure in US indices.
• Equity sectors in Europe are mostly lower in what has been a busy morning for corporates. To the downside, Media and Auto names lag while Energy names are the clear outperformer in what has been a tough week for the sector amid declines in underlying crude prices, with upside also spurred by Shell’s +1.8% update.
• US equity futures have spent the morning slightly better than flat in an attempted recovery following the Fed rate decision and further jitters on the regional banking front, with PACW’s shares plunging over 50% in afterhours trade.
• PacWest (PACW) has reportedly been approached by several potential partners and investors, according to Bloomberg.. -35% in the pre-market.
• Click here and here for the European equity updates, highlights include: Shell, Maersk, BMW, Volkswagen, Infineon, Airbus, ArcelorMittal, AB InBev & more.
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• DXY defends 101.000 in post-FOMC aftermath, as EUR/USD rejects 1.1100 in the run-up to the ECB amidst mixed EZ PMIs and a raft of hefty option expiries.
• Kiwi retains momentum above 0.6200 vs Buck and around 1.0700 vs Aussie as NZ building consents rebound firmly, AUD/USD underpinned within a 0.6699-41 band after export-led wider than forecast trade surplus.
• Pound perky near new YTD peak vs Buck just under 1.2600 with impetus from upgraded UK services and composite PMIs.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9054 vs exp. 6.9061 (prev. 6.9240)
• Norges Bank Key Policy Rate: 3.25% vs. Exp. 3.25% (Prev. 3.0%); policy rate will most likely be raised further in June. If NOK remains weaker than projected or pressures in the economy persist, a higher policy rate than envisaged earlier may be needed.
• Brazil Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 13.75%, as expected. BCB said it will assess if the strategy of maintaining the Selic rate for a long period will be sufficient to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target and will persist in its strategy until consolidating disinflation and anchoring expectations around its targets.
• Click here for more detail.
• Click here for the notable FX expiries for today’s NY cut.

FIXED INCOME

• Treasuries retain their bull-steepening trajectory post-Fed and ahead of several US data points, with T-notes holding above 116-00.
• Bunds probe 136.00 from 136.66 a peak as ECB looms and hawkish guidance is seen accompanying a 25 bp hike.
• Gilts teeter towards base of 101.37-93 range after upwardly revised UK services and composite PMIs.
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent futures are firmer following the recent hefty losses in the complex. WTI June and Brent July slumped to lows of USD 63.64/bbl and USD 71.28/bbl respectively overnight as futures reopened amid banking sector woes.
• Spot gold shot higher by some USD 40/oz overnight, very briefly to a fresh all-time high on some charts, north of USD 2,080/oz. The yellow metal then immediately pulled back to levels under USD 2,050/oz and trades lower intraday in the European morning.
• Base metals are mostly firmer, underpinned by the return of the markets largest purchaser China from a five-day holiday.
• Shell (SHEL LN) CEO says they are getting close to Chinese levels of oil demand last seen in 2019; sees strong rebound in gas demand in China’s services sectors, but less in the industrial sectors.
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE DMP: DMP members expected CPI to be 5.6% one-year ahead, down from 5.8%. Three-year ahead CPI expectations fell by 0.1 percentage point in April to 3.5%.

DATA RECAP

• EU S&P Global Services Final PMI (Apr) 56.2 vs. Exp. 56.6 (Prev. 56.6); Composite Final PMI (Apr) 54.1 vs. Exp. 54.4 (Prev. 54.4)
• EU Producer Prices MM (Mar) -1.6% vs. Exp. -1.7% (Prev. -0.5%, Rev. -0.4%); YY (Mar) 5.9% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 13.2%, Rev. 13.3%)
• UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Final (Apr) 55.9 vs. Exp. 54.9 (Prev. 54.9); Composite PMI Final (Apr) 54.9 vs. Exp. 53.9 (Prev. 53.9)
• German Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Mar) 16.7B vs. Exp. 16.1B (Prev. 16.0B)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fox’s Pergram reminds there is a Senate Banking Committee hearing today on recent bank failures; Commencing at 15:00BST/10:00EDT.
• White House CEA report said a protracted US default could result in a loss of 8.3mln jobs and a 6.1% drop in GDP, while a short default could result in a loss of 500k jobs and a 0.6% drop in GDP.
• US SEC is not considering a short selling ban as worries over bank soundness hurt shares, according to an SEC official cited by Reuters.
• PacWest Bancorp (PACW) is said to weigh strategic options including a sale, according to Bloomberg. Co. later stated that it has explored strategic asset sales including a USD 2.7bln lender finance loan portfolio and said that core customer deposits have increased since March 31st with total deposits totalling USD 28bln as of May 2nd, while it will continue to evaluate all options to maximise shareholder value, according to Reuters.
• Western Alliance (WAL) said it has not experienced unusual deposit outflows following the sale of First Republic Bank and other recent industry news, while it added that deposits as of Tuesday rose to USD 48.8bln from USD 48.2bln on Monday and QTD deposits are up USD 1.2bln from end-March.
• Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

GEOPOLITICS

• An oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, southern Russia caught fire after a drone attack, according to TASS.
• The governor of the Russian Voronezh region announces that the air defenses shot down a drone over the city, according to Sky News Arabia citing Tass.
• Russian Foreign Ministry says “Moscow will quickly deal with Kiev’s terrorist and subversive activities”, via Al Jazeera.
• Indian and Russia suspend negotiations to settle bilateral trade in Rupees, Russia reportedly not willing to amass INR as trade gap remains large, via Reuters citing sources.
• Russia’s Kremlin says we know decisions about such terrorist acts are taking in Washington and not Kyiv; Washington is definitely behind the attack, Kremlin is well aware of this; Russia has multiple response options, response will be thought-out.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is essentially unchanged, pivoting the USD 29k mark in parameters that are even thinner than those seen at this time yesterday.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mixed in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting where the Fed delivered a widely expected 25bps rate hike and paved the way for a pause, although Fed Chair Powell pushed back against cutting rates this year and alluded to banks tightening lending standards and slowing the pace of lending.
• ASX 200 was lacklustre amid weakness in its top-weighted financial sector after big four bank NAB’s H1 profit missed analysts’ estimates, although losses were cushioned by resilience in mining names and improved trade data.
• KOSPI was subdued as participants digested mixed earnings results, while Nikkei 225 remain closed.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were firmer as mainland participants returned from the golden week break with Chinese markets shrugging off the surprise contraction in Caixin Manufacturing PMI and the PBoC’s significant liquidity drain, as well as the HKMA’s 25bps rate hike in lockstep with the Fed.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 33bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.00% for a CNY 529bln net drain.
• HKMA raised its base rate by 25bps to 5.50%, as expected.
• Chinese airlines will be allowed to expand their flights to the US, according to FT.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 49.5 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.0)
• Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Mar) 15.27B vs. Exp. 12.65B (Prev. 13.87B)
• Australian Goods/Services Exports MM (Mar) 4% (Prev. -3%); Imports MM (Mar) 2% (Prev. -9%)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.18 PTS OR .82%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 249.57 POINTS OR  1.27%      /The Nikkei closed   //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.01 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.9120 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP  TO 6.9153 /Oil DOWN TO 68.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 73.54 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING 6.9120 AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER AT 6.9153

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

END

3 CHINA /

CHINA///

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS

ECB

As expected the ECB raises rates by 25% basis points and states that inflation continues to be too high for them for too long.  This high inflation is a killer to the EU economy.

(zerohedge)

ECB Hikes Rates By 25bps (As Expected), Warns “Inflation Continues To Be Too High For Too Long”

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 08:24 AM

As expected (and fully priced-in), The ECB slowed its pace of rate-hikes, matching The Fed’s 25bps move yesterday, taking the key rate to 3.25%, after its preferred inflation measure eased for the first time in 10 months.

The hike comes with a warning that “the inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long.”

The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the policy rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target and will be kept at those levels for as long as necessary.

The ECB stresses its data-dependence:

The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.

In particular, the Governing Council’s policy rate decisions will continue to be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

Lagarde and her lackeys also echoed The Fed’s comments on lagged reactions to policy:

“Past rate increases are being transmitted forcefully to euro area financing and monetary conditions, while the lags and strength of transmission to the real economy remain uncertain.”

The wording on T-LTROs is unchanged from last month. Policy makers will continue monitoring the impact of repayments:

As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations are contributing to its monetary policy stance.

Additionally, as expected, The ECB is expected to stop its APP re-investments by July (but PEPP re-investments will continue until the end of 2024).

Before today’s decision, the market’s expectation was for an ECB terminal rate of around 3.62% in September (so a hike in June and then a 50% chance of another hike by September). The immediate reaction was a fall in the terminal rate expectation to around 3.55% (i.e. one more hike and a very small chance of another after that).

The EUR dipped modestly on the news…

Short-end Bund yields dropped too…

Watch ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference live here (due to start at 0845ET):

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-hikes-rates-25bps-expected-warns-inflation-continues-be-too-high

end

EU//HOLLAND

The Dutch farmers are the best in Europe and these clowns wants to shut down farms in a stupid bid to reduce nitrogen emissions

(Roberts/EpochTimes)

EU Backs Controversial Dutch Plans To Shut Down Farms In Bid To Reduce Nitrogen Emissions

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

The European Commission on May 2 approved a plan by the Dutch government that would compensate livestock farmers in certain areas if they agree to voluntarily close their farms as part of the Netherlands’ efforts to reduce nitrogen pollution.

Under the new “schemes,” dubbed LBV and LBV plus, farmers will need to agree to shut down their production capacity definitively and irreversibly and not start the same breeding activity elsewhere in the Netherlands—the second-largest agricultural exporter in the world—or anywhere else within the European Union.

The “schemes” will run until February 2028 and are open to small and medium-sized livestock farmers in “overburdened Natura 2000 areas” in the Netherlands, providing their current nitrogen deposition load exceeds certain minimum levels each year.

In addition, only farmers that can prove they have been constantly producing over the five years before voluntarily closing down production will be eligible for the schemes.

The two Dutch schemes have a total budget of roughly €1.47 billion ($1.62 billion) and are part of the government’s plans to reduce nitrogen deposition in nature conservation areas.

Under the €500 million ($551 million) LBV scheme, farmers will be compensated “up to 100 percent” of the losses they incur by closing down their dairy cattle, pig, and poultry breeding sites, in the form of direct grants, according to a statement from the European Commission.

Chickens from a poultry farm in Winkel, Netherlands, on April 29, 2020. (Olaf Kraak/ANP/AFP via Getty Images)

Compensation, ‘Green Bonus’

That compensation will cover the loss of production capacity and production rights, according to the statement; funding, however, depends on the area in which the farm is located.

Under the €975 million ($1.77 billion) LBV-plus scheme, which will be open to “peak-load emitting breeding sites who emit a high level of nitrogen per year, fixed as a minimum level,” including farmers breeding dairy cattle, pigs, poultry, and veal calves, “up to 100 percent” of losses incurred by the farmers will be compensated via direct grants.

However, some farmers may also receive up to 120 percent in compensation due to the loss of production capacity under that scheme, according to officials.

The European Commission noted in its statement that if closures are done owing to environmental reasons, member states may grant the farmers an additional 20 percent “green bonus” on top of the compensation for the loss of the value of the assets.

Dutch agricultural exports were worth €122.3 billion last year, according to the national statistics office.

‘Necessary and Appropriate’

According to the European Commission, shutting down certain facilities producing high levels of nitrogen pollution is “necessary and appropriate” to “improve the environmental conditions of the targeted areas and to allow a high-quality, sustainable, and environmentally friendly production” as well as help meet the policy objectives such as those in the European Green Deal.

The commission also found that the compensation to farmers is “proportionate” because it is “limited to the minimum necessary” and that the compensation “brings about positive effects that outweigh any potential distortion of competition and trade in the European Union.”

“The €1.47 billion Dutch schemes we approved today will facilitate the voluntary closure of livestock farming sites with substantive nitrogen deposition on nature conservation areas,” Margrethe Vestager, executive vice-president in charge of competition policy at the European Commission, said in a statement.

“The schemes will improve the environment conditions in those areas and will promote a more sustainable and environmentally friendly production in the livestock sector, without unduly distorting competition,” Vestager added.

Tuesday’s news release did not state what will happen to farmers who do not agree to voluntarily give up their lands.

Dutch dairy farmer Martin Neppelenbroek at his farm in Lemelerveld, The Netherlands, on July 7, 2022. (The Epoch Times)

Farmers Under Pressure

Protests erupted across the Netherlands last year when the government initially announced the plan to slash nitrogen emissions across the country, including from farms, by more than 50 percent by 2030, and Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s administration made it clear that “there is not a future for all” Dutch farmers under the government’s objectives.

One dairy farmer in the Netherlands interviewed by The Epoch Times last year explained that he would have to cut his livestock numbers by 95 percent in order to meet the government’s new environmental regulations.

Another stated that the government had forced him to get rid of 12 cows as part of its efforts to reduce phosphate, and expressed his concerns that he would have to close down his farm if he was forced to get rid of more.

According to Dutch political commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek, the plan could see around 3,000 Dutch farmers bought out by the government.

“This is how they do it: they put a knife to the farmers’ throats. They make sure they don’t get their licenses renewed, they’re plaguing them with new rules and restrictions every day and then offer them a bride [sic], knowing many will take it out of pure desperation. It’s all so vile,” Vlaardingerbroek wrote on Twitter on Tuesday.

Vlaardingerbroek also questioned the legality of prohibiting the farmers who agree to give up their lands from starting over again in other EU nations.

“The whole idea of the EU was supposed to be about freedom of movement and freedom of workers. This is some next-level USSR stuff,” Vlaardingerbroek added.

END

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

UKRAINE//RUSSIA

How crazy can one be with respect to the attempted assassination attempt of Putin;

Ukraine Madness as a proxy

Robert Hryniak	5:02 PM (4 hours ago)
to

This sheer stupidity is on full display in trying to attack the Kremlin with a drone. Whether this was a flawed attempt at getting Putin or not or simply an escalation; it is a formal attack on Russia that will now not go unanswered.

While Russia can devastate the Ukraine in mere minutes it has up until now been quite deliberate in a special military operation where the full weight of Russia has yet to begin to stir. Today, this has changed with the action taken, no doubt at Neocon instruction. Perhaps that is why Zelensky has gone to Germany to wait out the reaction.

Today, certain special nukes have been made operational and are being loaded on airplanes. Presumably to deliver a message that is loud and clear. Milley says he does not want escalation as no one will win. However these words ring empty. Why? Since last early last summer American troops have established themselves in a newly built base that was visited by Biden on his last visit where troops have been training on ground much like will be found in Ukraine. This week has seen heavy airlifts of “black” soldiers to augment the ones sent last year. Why black, who knows except they will stand out for sure.
The other day the  Russians destroyed over 200 tons of ammo destined for a spring offensive by Ukraine. And by doing so has likely blunted at least a 1/3 of what was planned. This ammo can not be replaced and those troops sent in without, will die a quicker death. As Russia has increased its total military output in all areas by 2.5 times as of this Month.

May 9th is the so called start date of this Ukrainian offensive, so be aware that things can change very quickly without notice. Zelensky has already signed 2 agreements with Poland making Ukraine a province of Poland to provide for a back door entry into NATO. To that end Poland has called up all reserves now to give itself over 200,000 soldiers. Both Americans and Poles will likely go in in latter part of this month as the Ukrainian offensive falters. Russia has already stated it will not tolerate this so escalation should be expected.

This is at a time when new debt ceilings will be reached in America and daily hearings are occurring into past grievances by a Congress that more than likely will make referrals not just to the DOJ but to the military courts as well. As there is ample reason to think we will be hearing the word treason soon. Everyone seems to look for a cover story to divert attention and stay in control. The reality is this is becoming less and less controllable. Expect spring into summer to have upheavals.

end

Wow!! Russia states that the USA is behind the drone attack on its oil refinery

(zerohedge)

Russia Says US Behind Overnight Drone Attack On Oil Refinery

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 08:55 AM

While all eyes were on the small drone attack against Kremlin buildings in Moscow yesterday, given Russian allegations of an assassination attempt against President Putin, a separate but very significant cross-border strike was reported in southern Russia overnight.

Multiple drones targeted an oil refinery in southern Russia, resulting in a large fire. “Four drones were used in an attack on an oil refinery in the Krasnodar Region, where an oil storage reservoir caught fire on Thursday night,” TASS reports. The Kremlin is blaming Washington and Kiev’s Western backers for the cross-border operation.Illustrative image: AFP

“There were four [drones]. The fire was extinguished. One drone did not explode, it fell down and now a [controlled] detonation of it will take place,” the state publication said. It happened at around 3am, resulting in no casualties, and emergency responders reportedly extinguished the blaze, with authorities announcing “no threat to the population.”

The last weeks have seen a noticeable uptick in cross-border drone attacks out of Ukraine on key Russian infrastructure, including oil facilities and even trains of late. 

In the wake of this latest, the Russian Foreign Ministry vowed that “Moscow will quickly deal with Kiev’s terrorist and subversive activities,” according to Al Jazeera.

But what’s “new” about this attack on the oil refinery is that the Kremlin is very directly pointing the finger at the United States for helping the Ukrainians conduct the attack: 

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Kyiv could not have carried out the attack without Washington’s involvement.

“Attempts to disown this — both in Kyiv and in Washington — are, of course, absolutely ridiculous,” the Kremlin spokesman said, Russian news agency TASS reported.

“We know very well that decisions on such actions, on such terrorist attacks, are not made in Kyiv. Namely, in Washington. And Kiev is already doing what what he is told to do,” he added. Russia has not presented any evidence backing up its claims that Ukraine and the U.S. were behind the drone attack.

In a simultaneous blistering statement also aimed at Washington on Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the US and its allies are ultimately responsible for the actions of the Kiev regime.

“They destroyed the lawful government in Ukraine [in 2014], put crooks and bandits in charge, provided them with money and weapons, imbued them with a sense of absolute impunity and provided political cover and military support,” Zakharova said, asserting further that Russia holds “Washington, London, and NATO in general” accountable for Ukrainian leadership’s actions. But more and more of Moscow’s “red lines” have been incrementally crossed, and so far it looks like the Kremlin has remained somewhat restrained. However, some are calling for going gloves off on “Zelensky and his clique”. 

end

USA responds:

White House Rejects Kremlin Statement US “Undoubtedly” Behind Drone Attack On Kremlin

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 10:15 AM

The Kremlin issued a formal accusation against the United States for helping Ukraine conduct yesterday’s ‘assassination attempt’ on President Vladimir Putin via drone strike. 

“Attempts to disown this, both in Kyiv and in Washington, are, of course, absolutely ridiculous. We know very well that decisions about such actions, about such terrorist attacks, are made not in Kyiv but in Washington,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.Via EPA

Two drones had been caught on film flying into the Moscow Kremlin complex, within which President Putin has several offices, and federal business is conducted. Peskov stressed that the US was “undoubtedly” behind the incident. According to Peskov’s full statements in Reuters:He said the United States was “undoubtedly” behind the incident and added – again without stating evidence – that Washington often selected both the targets for Ukraine to attack, and the means to attack them.“This is also often dictated from across the ocean … In Washington they must clearly understand that we know this,” Peskov said.While there were no casualties from Wednesday’s drone strike against the Kremlin building, and with Russia saying it was a near-miss but that its anti-air measures deflected the strike, there does appear to be light damage – including burn marks – to a Kremlin dome. The White House denial of involvement was firm, quick, and brief. “White House national security spokesman John Kirby told MSNBC television the Russian claims were false, and that Washington does not encourage or enable Ukraine to strike outside its borders,” Reuters writes.

END

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE  ISSUES/

New COVID Vaccinations/Boosters Slow To A Trickle

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 04:15 AM

Pharma company Pfizer, makers of popular Covid-19 vaccine Comirnaty, reported their Q1 financials yesterday.

While the company exceeded expectations, there is nevertheless a big chunk of revenue missing in this quarter’s report compared to the same time last year. Total revenue was down 29 percent since Q1 of 2022.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, this change is closely related to the number of Covid-19 vaccines given out globally. Numbers from Our World in Data show that new vaccinations around the world have slowed to a trickle.

While in mid-2021, an average of as many as 38 million doses were given out each day, this had decreased to between 500,000 to one million daily doses most recently.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Interestingly, booster shots have generally not overtaken initial protocol immunizations, instead staying far behind them in 2023 after having been the most common type of Covid-19 vaccination for a short while in mid-2022. Booster doses of Covid-19 vaccines have been available in many developed countries – which is where most coronavirus vaccines were given out in general – and have continued to be recommended at least for older people. However, uptake has been far from universal. For example, while close to 70 percent of the U.S. population had received a full initial immunization against Covid-19 most recently, only around 17 percent had received a booster. The numbers were 94 percent and 43 percent for those over the age of 65, respectively.

The number of Covid-19 booster shots might increase once more if an annual vaccination against the disease would be recommended. In the United States, the FDA in January voted in favor of such a regimen that would work similar to the annual flu shot and could potentially start to be given out this fall. More than one annual shot could still be recommended for older or immuno-compromised people.

END

Top Officials Who Pushed Aggressive COVID-19 Policies Try To Rewrite History

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 02:35 PM

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Some of the people most strongly associated with promoting lockdown measures during the COVID-19 pandemic have recently sought to recast their positions. Examples include Anthony Fauci, former leader of the federal COVID-19 response, teachers’ union head Randi Weingarten, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Fauci seemed eager to shirk responsibility for the lockdowns when talking to The New York Times last week.

“Show me a school that I shut down and show me a factory that I shut down. Never. I never did,” he said.

It was the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that produced the lockdown recommendations, he emphasized.

“I gave a public-health recommendation that echoed the CDC’s recommendation, and people made a decision based on that,” he said, noting that he “happened to be perceived as the personification of the recommendations.”

That perception wasn’t mere happenstance though. Fauci hardly missed an opportunity for a media spotlight, accepting accolades for supposedly leading the country through the crisis.

Fauci boasted in October of 2020 that, early in the pandemic, it was he who recommended that President Donald Trump “shut the country down.”

“This was way before” the major outbreak in the New York City area at the onset of the pandemic, he said.

Moreover, Fauci now argues he was appreciative of those who had their reasons for not following the advice of federal public health agencies.

“I never criticized the people who had to make the decisions one way or the other,” he said.

That doesn’t appear to be accurate.

Fauci was repeatedly cited by the media as criticizing states that diverged from federal guidance.

On one occasion he called it “risky” and on another warned of “needless suffering and death” if states lifted COVID-19 restrictions earlier than federal guidelines suggested.

The former pandemic adviser now acknowledges that COVID-19 vaccines were presented to the public in a less-than-ideal way.

“We probably should have communicated better that the clinical trials were only powered to look at the effect on clinically recognizable disease, symptomatic disease,” he told the New York Times.

Nonetheless, various officials made comments to the effect that the vaccines stopped transmission of the virus—which was incorrect—while people who pointed out the limitations of the vaccine clinical trials were dismissed as “anti-vax” and censored by social media.

“Records can be shown to demonstrate Fauci’s undeniable leadership on decisions that led to substantial pain for otherwise healthy and productive Americans,” commented Michael Chamberlain, director of Protect the Public’s Trust, a group that pushes for government transparency and impartiality.

School Reopening

Weingarten, head of the American Federation of Teachers (AFT), recently told Congress that the union advocated for school reopening from early on in the pandemic.

“We spent every day from February [2020] on trying to get schools open,” she said.

That appears to be only partially true.

The union did issue a paper in April of 2020 that proposed reopening schools that were largely shut down the month before amid the rising spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 (pdf).

In practice, however, Weingarten always appeared to demand more to be done before schools could be opened “safely.”

Some of the core demands included universal masking of teachers and students, improving ventilation at school buildings, and maintaining 6-foot physical distancing at all times. But those requirements, according to the union, required major investment or sacrifices of classroom time. Classes needed to be much smaller, for example, to ensure the distancing.

“If you do 6 feet of physical distancing, you’re essentially saying in a school you’re going to have about 50 percent or 60 percent of people in there at any one time, not a 100 percent,” Weingarten told NBC News in February of 2021.

And the demands went on.

United Federation of Teachers’ (UFT’s) reopening report from February of 2021 called for 20 percent of all students and staff to be tested each week. If one student tested positive, the whole classroom should be sent home for 14 days; if two students in different classrooms tested positive, the whole school should shut down in-person learning for 14 days, the document recommended (pdf).

New York City schools tried to implement similar if less stringent rules, only to prompt protests from parents.

“Day 2 of school. A positive case was found in daughter’s classroom. 25 kids now have remote school for 10 days,” Jill Goldstein, who has a child in one of the city schools, wrote on Twitter.

“This is unacceptable.”

There also appeared to be a tendency to delay school reopening until teachers had ample opportunity to get vaccinated.

On one hand, the AFT said vaccinations weren’t necessary for school reopening, but on the other, it argued that teachers needed to be prioritized for vaccination and that vaccination progress should be “aligned” with the reopening.

“Teachers and school-related personnel need the layer of protection vaccines provide. It is the bare minimum of what they need to get back into the classroom,” Weingarten said in a February 24, 2021, tweet.

In some of the districts with large local unions and robust reopening demands, it was only after the vaccines became widely available that local authorities were able to reach reopening deals, according to a report by the Defense of Freedom Institute (pdf).

Some of the AFT’s largest local affiliates went even further.

United Teachers of Los Angeles (UTLA), one of the AFT’s largest and most powerful affiliates, argued that reopening would require “broader community preparedness and increased funding.” That was supposed to include not only prolific testing, masking, and social distancing, but also expanded sick leave, a wealth tax, a millionaire tax, “Medicare for all,” and a moratorium on charter schools, according to a document issued by the union in July of 2020 (pdf). The document is no longer accessible on the UTLA website.

Facing public resistance, the UTLA in the end agreed to a reopening plan without such extraneous demands.

Resources, Red Zones, and Politics

Weingarten seemed rather inflexible in her demands.

When the CDC lifted mask recommendations for COVID-19-vaccinated people in May of 2021, Weingarten criticized Texas for no longer requiring masks in schools, pointing out that children weren’t eligible for the vaccine yet. Two months later, the CDC recommended masks again regardless of vaccination, citing the spread of the virus’ Delta variant and data showing vaccinated people were spreading it just as much as the unvaccinated.

Experts have warned that masking children, especially the youngest ones, could stunt their development. Some people have also criticized what they perceived as arbitrary masking rules. If classes were held at restaurants, for example, students would have been presumably allowed to take their masks off while sitting, based on rules once in place in many jurisdictions.

Read more here..

GLOBAL ISSUES

Vaccine issues:

DR PAUL ALEXANDER:

URGENT (Wales government): ‘Ongoing investigation into neonatal myocarditis cluster in South Wales’; this is very rare & must be investigated urgently as to source! Question: what is unique? thread?

10 babies developed myocarditis within cluster; did these people vaccinate these babies? Is this linked to maternal COVID mRNA vaccinal antibodies? are these enterovirus infections due to vaccine?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 3

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‘A cluster of severe enterovirus infections with myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) occurring in very young babies from the South Wales region, is being investigated by Public Health Wales, working closely with the paediatric team at the Children’s Hospital for Wales.

The cases occurred from June 2022, with a peak in November 2022, involving babies under 28 days old. Enterovirus is a common infection of childhood which can cause a range of symptoms. It rarely affects the heart, with most babies and children recovering completely.  However, in very young babies, enterovirus can cause severe illness in the first few weeks of life. 

END 

Another Op-Ed Attack At Fauci’s Never-Ending Victory Tour: Published another Op-Ed going after Fauci on FoxNews.com, one of the most visited news sites on the internet. Pierre Kory

When will he get the memo & just just crawl away into obscurity? Narcissism is a bitch. Good piece by Kory, he is someone I still consider a friend in the movement, we had fun in the US convoy talking

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 4

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Kory is an adult among children.

Pierre Kory’s Medical Musings

Another Op-Ed Attack At Fauci’s Never-Ending Victory Tour

What a dystopian nightmare watching “America’s Doctor” try to continue his Covid victory tour. It is both shocking and unsurprising that he would do this despite leaving a generation of children with lower IQ scores, a U.S Life expectancy which dropped three years in the span of two, hundreds of thousands of deaths from the vaccines amongst working-age …

Read more

Pierre Kory, MD, MPA

‘What a dystopian nightmare watching “America’s Doctor” try to continue his Covid victory tour. It is both shocking and unsurprising that he would do this despite leaving a generation of children with lower IQ scores, a U.S Life expectancy which dropped three years in the span of two, hundreds of thousands of deaths from the vaccines amongst working-age Americans (threatening the life insurance industry), millions of vaccine injured, skyrocketing disability rates, an explosion of cancers, and suddenly plummeting birth rates is just too much for me to take. So I went after him. Again. Maybe he will get the memo this time, particularly in light of the frosty receptions he has received of late from normally kid-gloved, obsequious interviewers.

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-4:40

Dr. Anthony Fauci left government in December, but his media tour is going strong, albeit with a different tone and tenor. The fawning adulation and questions about his exercise regimes and bobbleheads have been replaced by skepticism and outright doubt from outlets who never dared question the all-knowing man once dubbed “America’s doctor” by The New Yorker.

Fauci recently appeared on CNN to complain about, “a personification of me as a person who essentially closed everything down.” He was responding to a lengthy sit down with the New York Times where he declared, “Show me a school that I shut down and show me a factory that I shut down. Never. I never did. I gave a public-health recommendation that echoed the C.D.C.’s recommendation, and people made a decision based on that.”

For all his faults, Fauci is no fool. One does not spend 54 years ensconced in the federal government without learning how to play politics.

Three years removed from the worst of the COVID pandemic, the longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases knows the policy decisions guided by his medical recommendations are looking worse by the day.

Herein lies his problem. When his ideas were in vogue, Fauci had no problem claiming responsibility. Now that the ugly consequences are coming due, he is eager to wash his hands.

FAUCI DEFENDS HIMSELF OVER POSSIBILITY NIH LINKED TO COVID LAB-LEAK

Video

In the face of plummeting math and reading scores between 2020 and 2022, Fauci is especially quick to deny his role in the school shutdowns. Last fall, Fauci raised eyebrows for denying that school lockdowns, “forever irreparably damaged anyone.” 

Yet as late as September 2020, Fauci recommended that schools only open back up once the virus is “under control.” Earlier in the year, he had chastised Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, warning that premature re-opening “likely” lead to widespread student infection. 

Today, even left-leaning sources concede that, “kids are safe. They always have been.”

Then came the vaccines. From the outset, Fauci’s entire COVID mitigation strategy was based on an experimental vaccine rushed to market under the branding “warp speed.” There had never been an mRNA-approved vaccine before, and now it was being pushed non-stop from the White House podium with the full support of the pharmaceutical industry. 

It was always highly illogical to deploy a static vaccine toward a mutagenic and constantly changing coronavirus. Then came the checks the vaccines couldn’t write. Fauci told us they would stop transmission. He implored us to “follow the science.”

Video

Today, the science is clear: the COVID vaccine does not prevent transmission or contagion of the virus. Yet even now, Fauci continues to lament that “only 68 percent of the country is vaccinated” and says “we do really poorly” compared to the rest of the world.

European countries like Switzerland, normally held up by American academics as worthy of emulation, are advising their citizens against the vaccine. There’s a reason that known vaccine expert Robert Kennedy Jr. is already earning the support of nearly one in five Democrat voters.

In my private practice, I have treated more than 500 patients suffering injuries from the vaccine, I have seen the unintended — but brutal — harm they’ve often caused up close and personal. Yet to raise any of these issues is to risk one’s livelihood. That is Fauci’s greatest stain on our country.

Fauci fostered an environment where doctors who deviated from the preferred party line were persecuted and even criminalized for offering a different point of view. Silencing free expression and thought is the antithesis of America, and dangerous for science, innovation, and medicine.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE OPINION NEWSLETTER

Video

Fauci blamed “misinformation and disinformation” for “really hurting so many things, including people’s trust in science,” yet on his watch, laws were passed that empowered government agencies to strip doctors of their medical licenses for questioning the wisdom of vaccines. 

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

These efforts left a profound lasting impact on medicine and the patient-doctor relationship. Suddenly physicians were forced to choose between offering their best advice or losing their ability to practice medicine.

Anthony Fauci’s legacy is one of narcissism and power. The glorification of his massive ego trumped any scientific or medical data. His policies were giveaways to the pharmaceutical industry, which helped burnish his image and crush dissent. He saw his opportunity for the spotlight and seized it. Now, rather than admit mistakes, Fauci is intent on revising history.  Unfortunately for his legacy, we’re all living with the consequences of his hubris, and they are impossible to overlook.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE FROM DR. PIERRE KORY

Pierre Kory, M.D., is president and chief medical officer of the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance.

---

P.S I just want to say thanks to all my subscribers, especially the paid ones! Your support is greatly appreciated as it allows me to devote what is often large amount of time I spend researching and writing my posts, so again, thanks. – Pierre

end

COVID face masks: Study warns of risk of COVID face masks pointing to a rise in stillbirths, testicular dysfunction and cognitive decline due to build-up of carbon dioxide! Fresh air has around 0.04%

CO2, while wearing masks more than 5 min bears a possible chronic exposure to carbon dioxide of 1.41% to 3.2% of the inhaled air; experimental data demonstrate a teratogenicity, testicular toxicity

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 4

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SOURCE:

Click to access S2405-8440(23)01324-5.pdf

end

John Leake warns ‘Get Ready For a Big Marburg Scare, Bio-Pharmaceutical Complex propagandists activated following reports from Equatorial Guinea & Tanzania’; I agree 100%, this is fear porn & bogus

Nice read and John raises key issues to be considered in this era of lies and falsehoods told to us by any government official. These people are criminals, criminals for what they did with COVID lies

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 3

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Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake

Get Ready For a Big Marburg Scare

By JOHN LEAKE On April 6, 2023, the CDC issued a report “to increase awareness of the risk of imported cases in the United States” following Marburg Virus Disease Outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania. “This is a problem – this unprecedented outbreak of the Marburg virus in two different countries,” said Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia…

Read more

a day ago · 96 likes · 8 comments · Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH™

By JOHN LEAKE

On April 6, 2023, the CDC issued a report “to increase awareness of the risk of imported cases in the United States” following Marburg Virus Disease Outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania.

“This is a problem – this unprecedented outbreak of the Marburg virus in two different countries,” said Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia.

“There has been an acceleration in the number of Marburg virus outbreaks over recent years,” added Cesar Munoz-Fontela, a specialist in tropical infectious diseases at the Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine in Hamburg.

Equatorial Guinea is a perfect place for the Bio-Pharmaceutical Complex to operate and do and say whatever it pleases because its government is one of the most corrupt in the world. President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo is surely one of the most bizarre heads of state in history. According to a BBC report in July of 2003, state-operated radio declared Obiang “the country’s god” with “all power over men and things.” It added that the president was “in permanent contact with the Almighty” and “can decide to kill without anyone calling him to account and without going to hell.” He also has a funny quirk of ending public speeches by well-wishing himself instead of the nation.

According to a 2010 Forbes report, the President gets the lion’s share of the country’s $3 billion per annum oil revenue (from massive offshore deposits) and had deposited approximately $700 million in US Banks. Like President George W. Bush’s friend, Prince Bandar Al Saud, Mbasogo had a special relationship with the now defunct Riggs Bank in Washington D.C.—the nation’s top money laundering institution, which channeled payments to some of the Sept. 11, 2001 hijackers.

Where there is a stew of corruption (in places like Ukraine, Equatorial Guinea, and Washington D.C.) you will find the Bio-Pharmaceutical Complex setting up shop. But I digress. Back to Marburg.’

END

Dr. William Makis covers the surging incapacitation of BUS drives, school bus drivers especially & he asks “Died suddenly – School bus drivers are collapsing at the wheel – 9 recent incidents!”

I stand with him and we are seeing young people dying suddenly, middle aged people with cardiac arrests, brain bleeds, collapsing & this issue like for airline pilots, is very troubling given the risk

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 3

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Warren, MI – School bus driver collapsed while driving (VIDEO ABOVE), 13 year old boy Dillon Reeves from Lois E. Carter Middle School, jumped in and brought the bus to a halt on April 26, 2023 (click here)

The bus driver experienced “some dizziness” while driving and followed protocol by alerting ‘“home base” that she wasn’t feeling well and was going to pull over.

But the driver didn’t make it to where she planned to park, eventually passed out and couldn’t stop the bus, which started to veer into oncoming traffic.

END

DR PANDA

END

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News WEF Member Calls for 86% Reduction in World’s Population A celebrated member of the globalist World Economic Forum (WEF) has called for a staggering 86 percent reduction in the population of humans, arguing that the goal can be achieved “peacefully.” READ MORE Anheuser-Busch Will Give Free Case of Bud Light to Every Wholesale Distributor Employee Facing a backlash from distributors, Anheuser-Busch paid for a free case of Bud Light for every distributor employee and promised to fix the Bud Light situation after the disastrous marketing stunt with Dylan Mulvaney. READ MORE Longtime Democrat Campaign Strategist Charged with Election Fraud New Jersey Democrat campaign strategist James Devine has been charged with election fraud, according to prosecutors. READ MORE Jeffrey Epstein Claimed He Was Managing Money for Bill Gates – Gates Denies Charge The Wall Street Journal released Part 2 of its Jeffrey Epstein document dump and Bill Gates does not look good. READ MORE Woody Harrelson Says Matthew McConaughey Is His Actual Brother Hollywood legend Woody Harrelson said that fellow actor Matthew McConaughey is his biological half-brother. READ MORE FBI Caught Spying on Virginia Catholic Church Democrat President Joe Biden’s FBI has been caught spying on a Catholic Church in Virginia, according to reports. READ MORE One Week after Firing Tucker Carlson, Fox News Loses to MSNBC in Primetime Viewers One week after the shocking removal of star anchor Tucker Carlson, Fox News lost the primetime ratings battle with MSNBC. READ MORE Elon Musk Weighs in on ‘Strange’ Ballot Irregularities Exposed in Maricopa County Twitter boss Elon Musk has responded to the bombshell data that exposes major irregularities in Arizona’s Maricopa County. READ MORE Woody Harrelson Blasts ‘Idiots’ Who Push ‘Liberal Agenda ‘Hollywood star Woody Harrelson has given his thoughts on those who push “the liberal agenda.” READ MORE Pfizer Reports Massive Drop in Revenue as Covid Vaccine Sales CrasH /Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer has just revealed that its revenue dropped dramatically in the first quarter of 2023. READ MORE Kevin Costner’s Wife Files for Divorce after 18 Years of Marriage Yellowstone star Kevin Costner has suffered yet another blow as his wife of 18 years has just filed for divorce. READ MORE Judge Drops Hammer on Chicago Carjacker, Sentences Thug to 40 Years in Prison for Hijacking Pregnant Woman’s Ca rA Chicago thug made a critical mistake during his latest crime spree .READ MORE Dr Peter McCullough: mRNA Shots for Cattle Are Not Needed Renowned American cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough has raised the alarm about mRNA shots being used on cattle.READ MORE

VACCINE IMPACT/

Will Anyone Be Held Accountable for the 300,000 Americans Murdered by the COVID-19 Shots in 2021?May 3, 2023 6:43 pm2021 will go down in history as the worst year of “death by lethal injection” as an estimated 300,000 people in the United States were killed by lethal injections. Lethal injections are only supposed to be injected into convicted criminals who receive the death penalty in a court of law. But starting in December of 2020, when President Trump threatened the FDA and forced them to approve experimental injections of COVID-19 shots that were produced by U.S. Government funds through his Operation Warp Speed program, through 2021 when President Biden instituted mandates for people to receive those lethal injections as a condition for employment, an estimated 300,000 Americans lost their lives from these lethal injections. Will anyone be held accountable for these acts of domestic terrorism and mass murder? Donald Trump and Joe Biden should be tried as domestic terrorists and mass murderers for these crimes, along with their entire administrations who participated in them. And yet, both men are running for re-election for President of the United States. I am going to present the evidence for their guilt in these crimes against the American people in this article, using publicly available information published by the U.S. Government that anyone can fact check.Read More…Another California Bank on the Verge of Collapse!May 3, 2023 6:55 pmEarlier today, when Jerome Powell openly lied to the American People during the FOMC press conference stating without a hint of irony that the US banking system is “sound and resilient”, we balked: how could this former lawyer lie so brazenly to the American people, the narrator wondered, when in just the past few weeks we had seen over half a trillion in bank failures, making the current bank failure episode even worse than the global financial crisis? Well, as usual, the narrator was right, because while Powell’s lies were still ringing in our ears, the next regional bank collapse was on its say. Shortly after the close, Bloomberg reported that another regional, California-based bank (of course), PacWest Bancorp., was weighing a range of strategic options, including a sale. The Beverly Hills-based bank – whose financial conditions it appears has been far worse than the Fed, which just hiked another 25bps, thought – has been working with a financial adviser and has also been considering a breakup or a capital raise, according to Bloomberg sources. While it is open to a sale, the company hasn’t started a formal auction process. And sure enough, following the Bloomberg report, PacWest – which had $28 billion in deposits at last check (far less as of this moment) and $44 billion in assets, saw its stock plunge more than 60% after hours…Read More…END

 

MICHAEL EVERY

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

IMF: Saudi Arabia Needs Oil Prices At $80.90 To Balance Budget

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• The IMF said in its latest economic projections that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $80.90 per barrel to balance its budget this year.
• This is a lower breakeven price than in 2021 and 2022, but remains higher than the average breakeven price for the two decades to 2019.
• The IMF expects Saudi Arabia to run a budget deficit of 1.1% of GDP this year due to its production cuts.

Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $80.90 per barrel to balance its budget this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday in its latest economic projections for the Middle East and Central Asia.

The breakeven price for the world’s largest crude oil exporter for 2023 is estimated to be lower than the $83.60 and $85.80 a barrel levels of 2021 and 2022, respectively, but higher than the $80.40 breakeven average for the two decades to 2019.

Economic growth in OPEC’s de facto leader is set to materially slow down from 8.7% last year to 3.1% this year and next, according to the IMF.

Real GDP growth for oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to slow from 5.7% in 2022 to 3.1% in 2023 (and to broadly maintain that pace in 2024) “as the main driver of growth in most oil exporters shifts to nonhydrocarbon activities, reflecting agreed oil production cuts,” the fund’s economists said.

Saudi Arabia led a group of several major OPEC+ producers who announced in early April a surprise 1.66 million bpd cut in production between May and December this year as “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”

Due to lower revenues from decreased oil production, the IMF now expects Saudi Arabia to run a budget deficit of 1.1% of GDP this year, contrary to the Kingdom’s projections for another year of a budget surplus after the first surplus in a decade booked for 2022. 

Saudi Arabia’s budget is set to be close to balance this year, compared to a surplus of 2.5% last year, due to lower expected average oil price in 2023 ($85 a barrel per Fitch projections) and lower oil production, Fitch Ratings said last month as it upgraded Saudi Arabia’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) to ‘A+’ from ‘A,’ citing the Kingdom’s strong fiscal position and “formidable” foreign reserves.

But Saudi dependence on oil remains high, although it has fallen in the past decade. The high oil dependence remains a rating weakness for Saudi Arabia’s economy, in addition to weak World Bank governance indicators and vulnerability to geopolitical shocks, Fitch noted.

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS 

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.1067 DOWN 0.0002

USA/ YEN 134.42  DOWN 0.135  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2579  UP    0.0010

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3608 DOWN .0024 (CDN DOLLAR UP 24 PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 27.18 PTS OR .82% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 249.54 PTS OR 1.27%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .01%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 249.54 PTS OR 1.27   %

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 27.18 PTS OR .82%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.01% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2042.50

silver:$25.64

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 100.93 DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s close.

THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.039%  DOWN 4   in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.415 % UP01 AND 0//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.284 DOWN 3 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.111 DOWN 1  points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1855  DOWN 6  BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1002 DOWN  0.0066 or 66  basis points 

USA/Japan: 133.96 DOWN .586  OR YEN UP 59 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2569 UP .0002 OR 2   BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP  .0049 OR 49 BASIS pts  to 1.3582

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED UP.(69117)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.92000

TURKISH LIRA:  19.49 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.415…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 8 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.328% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.699 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.7759% DOWN 16  in basis points.

 USA dollar index, 101.25 UP 14  in basis points   ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

Your  12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 89,86 points or 1.04%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 78.03 PTS OR 0.49%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 65.45 PTS OR 0.88%

Spain IBEX DOWN 28.60 PTS OR  0.32%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 159.25 PTS OR 0.59%

WTI Oil price 68.60     12: EST

Brent Oil:  72.30.      12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   AT:  78.03/ ROUBLE UP 1 AND   13//100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.185 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.6899 DOWN 1  BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1016 DOWN 0.0052   OR 52 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2576 UP   .0008 or  8 basis pts 

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.684% UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.18 DOWN  0.373 //YEN  UP 37 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3537  DOWN .0094 CDN dollar, UP94  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 68.42

Brent OIL:  72.33

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 3.362% 

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1  BASIS PTS to 3.727% 

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 18  PTS AT 3.7615%  

USA dollar index: 101.165 UP 5 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.49

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  78.05 UP  1   AND  15/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 286.50 PTS OR 0.86% 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 190.64 PTS OR 1.33%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.05 UP 1.71 PTS (9.32)%

GLD: $190.64 UP 1.33 OR 0.70%

SLV/ $23.94 UP  0.51 OR 2.17%

end

USA AFFAIRS

1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

May The 4th Be With The Shorts: Regional Bank Rout Sparks Bond & Bullion Bid

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 04:00 PM

Soaring job cuts (Challenger Gray), increasing jobless claims, rising unit labor costs, paint a very stagflationary picture (and an ECB rate-hike didn’t help) with Jay Powell’s favorite yield-curve-based recession indicator has collapsed to a fresh low (its most inverted ever)…

Source: Bloomberg

Debt ceiling anxiety remains extremely high…

Source: Bloomberg

And the regional bank crisis is spreading and accelerating…

Source: Bloomberg

Most notably WAL and PACW were clubbed like a baby seal…

Source: Bloomberg

And here is Goldman Sachs to destroy the constant theme from talking heads today that “this is all short-sellers fault”:

The most notable aspect of our fins flows today is that we are seeing mostly long selling (both HF and MF) vs the past few days where HF short pressing was the primary narrative.

Today’s long sales include higher quality stocks which suggests today is a manage exposures/cut risk session.

And the market is now pricing in a 60% chance of rate-cut in July!…

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, the broad US majors were all red, led by Small Caps. Nasdaq was the prettiest horse in the glue factory, still down 0.5% though…

No short squeeze triggered today as ‘most shorted’ stocks extended yesterday’s late lunge lower…

Source: Bloomberg

0-DTE traders aggressively bid against the opening plunge in stocks, and prompted

Source: SpotGamma

And it may be time to brace for more pain as Goldman warns that CTA Trigger levels are starting to flip today for SPX

• Short Threshold: 4085
• Medium Threshold: 4046
• Long Threshold: 4133

Over 1 week:

• Flat tape: -$7.8bn to sell (-$3.3bn to SELL in S&P)
• Up tape: -$2.3bn to sell (-$0.7bn to SELL in S&P)
• Down tape: -$50.5bn to sell (-$20.1bn to SELL in S&P)

Over 1 month:

• Flat tape: -$25.6bn to sell (-$12.2bn to SELL in S&P)
• Up tape: +$18.9bn to buy (+$3.1bn to BUY in S&P)
• Down tape: -$218bn to sell (-$54.2bn to SELL in S&P)

All of which pushed The Dow into the red for the year…

Source: Bloomberg

As money fled stocks, it went into bonds and bullion.

Treasuries were mixed with the short-end outperforming (2Y -5bps, 30Y +4bps). On the week, the divergence between short- and long-bond yields is evident…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield closed at its lowest since Sept ’22…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, while Powell’s favorite signal is still inverting further, the 2s10s curve is steepening (just as it does ahead of every recession) to its least inverted since Oct ’22…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was choppy on the day but ended marginally lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin pushed back above $29,000 intraday, but was unable to hold it – but ended marginally higher on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was a beneficiary of the safe haven flows and spot prices tagged $2,060 intraday – within a few ticks of its all-time record high (the barbarous relic is screaming that The Fed has lost control)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended marginally lower but the big news last night’s flash crash as clearly come fund liquidated bigly…

Some context for WTI…

Finally, all eyes will be on AAPL earnings tonight… and rightly so given the following chart…

This won’t end well…

END

i b Morning trading:  banking crisis//10:30

Regional Bank Crisis Spreads To BIg Banks As USB Tumbles, Stocks Dump Amid Widespread Liquidations

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 10:27 AM

Update (10:30am): it’s just getting worse and worse:

• *PACWEST SHARES HALTED AFTER EXTENDING ROUT TO 52%
• *KBW BANK INDEX DOWN AS MUCH AS 5.5% TO LOWEST SINCE SEPT. 2020
• *S&P 500 FALLS 1% TO LOWEST INTRADAY SINCE MARCH 30

And now Western Alliance has joined the collapse…

• *WESTERN ALLIANCE RESUMES, EXTENDS SLUMP TO 45%, HALTED AGAIN

After an FT report said that it too, like PacWest, is exploring strategic options including a potential sale of all or part of its business. Citing two sources, the FT notes that the bank has hired advisers to explore its options and adds that deliberations are at an early stage, although at this rate, there won’t be much to deliberate in a few short hours when the bank is out of all deposits.

* * *

end

UPDATES

Regional Bank Crisis Spreads To Big Banks As US Bancorp Tumbles, Stocks Dump Amid Widespread Liquidations

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 10:27 AM

Update (10:50am):  Moments after the FT report which sent WAL shared plunging to $11 (after closing at $30 yesterday), the company rushed out a press release to announce that the FT article is “absolutely false”

Western Alliance Bancorporation (“Western Alliance” or the “Bank”) (NYSE: WAL), the holding company for Western Alliance Bank, today issued the following statement in response to an article published by the Financial Times.

The Financial Times’ report today that Western Alliance is considering a potential sale of all or part of its business is categorically false in all respects. There is not a single element of the article that is true. Western Alliance is not exploring a sale, nor has it hired an advisor to explore strategic options.

It is shameful and irresponsible that the Financial Times has allowed itself to be used as an instrument of short sellers and as a conduit for spreading false narratives about a financially sound and profitable bank.

We are considering all of our legal options in response to today’s article.

For its part, the FT also did an on brand “update” to its article:

Harvey: seems that I was right:  50 billion dollars coming from Treasury (taxpayers) to bail out FRC:

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oh the irony: FRC take under by JPM (funded by the FDIC/US taxpayers) drained $75bn in reserves. And we are right back on the reserve constraint critical threshold. Hence the banking crisis is baaaaack

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·

Apr 30

It is not at all surprising why markets are in an eerie calm right now: the Fed’s emergency liquidity injections have boosted small bank reserves above the constraint level. As long as those are above the yellow line, risk will rise.

Earlier

Two days ago, on May 2, in the aftermath of the FRC take-under by JPM which Jamie Dimon praised (of course) as a deal proving that the “system works as it should”, and predicted that the bank crisis is now almost over, a forecast which the Fed chair reiterated yesterday (just before all hell broke loose), we warned that the “banking crisis is baaaack” for the simple reason that by bailing out FRC, up to $75 billion in Fed reserves would be drained from the system pushing small banks back to their reserve constraint and forcing another market puke and/or Fed bailout.

And as events less than 24 hours later proved conclusively, we were again right.

Early this morning, after its stock crashed as much as 60% and falling to a record low in the afterhours session following a Bloomberg report that it was seeking to sell itself or raise capital and sparking concerns that it was the next insolvent bank, California’s  PacWest Bancorp (it’s always a California bank for some odd reason), confirmed that it was indeed in talks with several potential investors, and said core deposits have increased since March in a desperate attempt to calm markets after the stock rout made it the new focal point of concern over the health of US regional lenders.

“The bank has not experienced out-of-the-ordinary deposit flows following the sale of First Republic Bank and other news,” PacWest said in a statement after the stock’s post-market plunge. “Our cash and available liquidity remains solid and exceeded our uninsured deposits.”

Sadly for PACW, in a world where a bank bringing attention to its balance sheet only invites bear raids and massive shorting, the bank failed to rebound and this morning it plunged as much as 48%, after being halted twice, and was last trading down 42%.

And now that small, “western” banks are once again under the microscope, the regional bank turmoil is – just as we predicted – “baaaack”, and is hitting banks both small such as Western Alliance, which is down 24%…

… as well as much buyer banks, such as US Bancorp, which this morning is down as much as 8% dropping …

… and which actually is no longer just a small bank with over $682 billion in assets, over $500 billion in deposits and almost $400 billion in loans…

… thus threatening to bring what was until now purely a regional bank crisis to the echelon of larger banks. But for now this remains almost exclusively a small/regional bank crisis – as we warned it would be back on March 8 largely due to their commercial real estate exposure – and the KRE index is plunging another 6% this morning, dragging it to the lowest level since October 2020.

Meanwhile, with the Fed still clearly ignoring what is shaping up as an epic bank crisis – or perhaps stoking it as some cynics have pointed out, suggesting it is Powell’s hope that a cascade of failing banks will make the Fed’s job of sparking a recession, credit crisis and deflationary bust easier…

… traders everywhere are selling anything that isn’t nailed down, and following last night’s bizarre flash crash in oil, they have brought the liquidation to the S&P which is down 0.9% this morning in another broad-based selloff…

… as the VIX spikes above 20, and 10Y yields tumble while gold continues to trade just shy of its all time high.

Meanwhile, what we warned earlier this week may not have registered at the Fed just yet, but its former staffers are finally admitting that it is indeed the case: “The acute phase of bank turmoil may not be over, and policymakers need urgently to recognize that,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore, and former manager at the NY Fed.

“The problem is that their financial stability policy options are limited.”

In response to the relentless bank selling, there has been nothing but silence from the clueless Biden admin, but some reports suggest that a blanket deposit insurance is being considered, which however as we said – and Elon Musk agrees – will do nothing to contain the bank run…

… as well as rumors of a short selling ban, which also will only make matters worse.

Incidentally, since the deposit flight is now mostly a function of rate differentials – i.e., the rate offered by most banks is far, far below that which money market funds offer today, and depositors can easily move all their money from place A to place B in under a minute with 3 clicks on their iPhone…

… the only thing that can stop this crash is the Fed cutting rates… which needless to say, would be reputational suicide for the what little credibility the Fed has left as it would be the fastest reversal following a rate hike in history…

… and will immediately send all non-USD alternatives soaring to record highs, as the dedollarization conversation turns much more serious.

end

THIS IS BIG:LATE IN THE DAY

Massive Retail Money Market Inflows Suggest Bank Deposit Run Accelerating

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 04:42 PM

After last week saw The Fed’s balance sheet continue is decline back from its bank-bailout resurgence, all eyes will be back on H.4.1. report this evening for signs that the regional banking crisis is accelerating (as regional bank shares suggest).

The answer is not a good sign for the bulls as Money Market Funds saw $47 billion of INFLOWS, pushing the aggregate to a record high of $5.31 trillion. That is over $100 billion of inflows in two weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

The breakdown was $20.7 billion from Institutional funds and $26.4 billion from retail funds (up dramatically from the $4.98 billion last week).

Source: Bloomberg

This surge in money market fund inflows strongly suggests tomorrow’s H8 deposit report will show the bank run is accelerating…

Source: Bloomberg

However, the most anticipated financial update of the week – the infamous H.4.1. showed the world’s most important balance sheet shrank for the 6th straight week last week, by a sizable $58.7 billion, notably more than last week’s tumble (helped by a $43bn QT)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Total Securities held outright on The Fed balance sheet plunged (QT back on track) by $43 billion to $7.80 trillion, the lowest since August 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Looking at the actual reserve components that were provided by the Fed, we find that Fed backstopped facility borrowings plunged last week from $155.2 billion to $81.2 billion (still massively higher than the $4.5 billion pre-SVB)…

Source: Bloomberg

…but the composition shifted dramatically, as usage of the Discount Window plunged by around $68 billion to just 5.34 billion (upper pane below) along with a $6 billion decrease in usage of the Fed’s brand new Bank Term Funding Program, or BTFP, to $75.8 billion (middle pane) from $81.3 billion last week. Meanwhile, other credit extensions – consisting of Fed loans to bridge banks established by the FDIC to resolve SVB and Signature Bank rose notably from $170 billion to $228 billion (lower pane)…

Source: Bloomberg

Chatter is that FRC was hitting the discount window heavily and now it has gone away, that usage has gone. BTFP remains extremely high though. The jump in ‘Other Credit Extensions’ looks like the ‘loan’ to JPM to backstop the FRC deal.

Tomorrow we get more answers after the bell when The Fed releases its H8 report on bank deposit flows

Finally, the following chart showing Fed funds vs Regional Bank stocks needs little commenting…

Source: Bloomberg

The question is how this spills over… and how aggressively they start cutting? And don’t believe that universal deposit guarantees will make any difference now – this is not deposit fear, this is simply how it’s supposed to work as ‘cash’ seeks its highest (risk-free) return.

II) USA DATA//

As stated on previous occasions, the USA economy is heading southbound

(zerohedge)

Initial Jobless Claims Jump Near 18 Month High

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 09:19 AM

Two days after an unexpectedly weak JOLTS report, and one day ahead of tomorrow’s closely watched April payrolls report, when the US is expected to add just 182K jobs, down from 236K, this morning the BLS reported that in the latest week, the number of initial jobless claims jumped from 229K to 242K, rising above the median estimate of 240K, and the third consecutive month of initial claim prints above 200K (the not seasonally adjusted number rose by a slightly lower 219.6K).

Meanwhile, continuing claims dropped modestly from a downward revised 1.843MM to 1.805MM, but remain near the highest since Dec 2021.

The state by state breakdown showed the while most weekly change prints were in line, New York was once again an odd outlier with an outsized drop of 9,358 in claims.

Meanwhile, earlier in the day, the latest Challenger job cuts report found that in April there were 66,995 job cuts, up 176% Y/Y. So far this year, employers have announced plans to cut 337,411, a 322% increase from the 79,982 cuts announced in the first four months of 2022.  With the exclusion of 2020, this is the highest January-April total since 2009, when 711,100 cuts were announced in the first four months of the year.

As shown in the chart below, the divergence between reported initial claims and challenger continues to be… rather big.

Job cuts announced in the East 17,693; Midwest 14,659; West 29,366; South 5,277.

“Retailers and consumer goods manufacturers are preparing for a tightening in consumer spending, particularly with the Fed’s hike to interest rates in an attempt to control inflation,”  Andrew Challenger, firm’s senior vice president, said in statement.

Retail led all industries in April with 14,689 cuts, up 270% from the 3,970 Retail cuts announced in March. So far this year, Retailers have announced 36,115, an 843% increase from the 3,830 Retail cuts announced in the same period last year. Meanwhile, Consumer Products Manufacturers announced the third-highest number of cuts last month with 9,146 for a total of 19,116. This is a 391% increase from the 3,893 cuts announced through April 2022.

“Retailers and Consumer Goods Manufacturers are preparing for a tightening in consumer spending, particularly with the Fed’s hike to interest rates in an attempt to control inflation,” said Andrew Challenger, labor and workplace expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The Technology sector announced the second-most cuts in April with 11,553, and leads all industries in cuts this year with 113,944, 34% of all cuts announced in 2023. The year-to-date total is up 24,724% from the 459 cuts announced through April 2022. The silver lining:  April marked the lowest number of layoffs in this sector since October 2022, when 9,587 cuts were announced.

Finally, while job cuts fell in April from March, hiring plans have also fallen significantly from 2022. In April, companies announced plans to add 23,310 positions for a total of 93,948 so far this year. This is down 81% from the 486,603 hiring plans announced in the same period last year. It is the lowest number of announced hiring plans through April since 2016, when Challenger tracked 38,455 hiring plans in the first four months of the year.

END

U.S. productivity fell sharply in the first quarter as economy slows

May 4, 2023 at 8:43 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Productivity down at 2.7% rate, weakest since second quarter of 2022

The numbers: U.S. productivity fell at a 2.7% annual clip in the first quarter, the government said Thursday.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had projected a 1.9% decrease.

Over the past four quarters, U.S. productivity has fallen at a 0.9% pace.

Key details: Output in the first quarter rose 0.2%. Hours worked rose 3%.

U.S. real gross domestic product expanded at a 1.1% annual rate, down sharply from 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter.

Unit-labor costs, a key measure of wages, picked up to a 4.5% rate in the first quarter, up from a 3.3% rate in the prior three months. Over the past 12 months, unit labor costs are up 5.3%.

Big picture: Productivity is a key indicator because it is the basic ingredient of rising living standards. But it is tough to measure and economists like to look at longer- run trends. The work of discerning productivity trends was made even more difficult by COVID.

“Since the pandemic, the productivity numbers have been extremely volatile, as output growth and employment gains have been out of phase,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander.

Economists are focusing a lot of attention on unit labor costs because economists wages are a key driver of inflation. Labor costs are running much faster than what would be consistent with price stability, suggesting that a Federal Reserve pause might be brief.

What are they saying? “The decline in productivity in the first quarter and continued strong growth in unit labor costs is another sign that inflation will prove stickier than markets anticipate. Even though the Fed signaled yesterday they may be finished raising interest rates, high inflation will delay rate cuts until next year.,” said Michael Pearce, economist at Oxford Economics.

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

LAST NIGHT/AFTER THE MARKET CLOSED:

And the next bank to fail is: Pacwest! the depositors are fleeing. It is seeking buyers but no avail…nobody will buy with huge losses in its bond portfolio

The run on the bank will now intensify!

(zerohedge)

Here We Go Again: Troubled California Bank Pacwest Craters 60% On Report It Is Seeking Buyers Or Capital Raise

WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 05:15 PM

Earlier today, when Jerome Powell openly lied to the American People during the FOMC press conference stating without a hint of irony that the US banking system is “sound and resilient” we balked: how could this former lawyer lie so brazenly to the American people, the narrator wondered, when in just the past few weeks we had seen over half a trillion in bank failures, making the current bank failure episode even worse than the global financial crisis?

Well, as usual, the narrator was right, because while Powell’s lies were still ringing in our ears, the next regional bank collapse was on its say.

Shortly after the close, Bloomberg reported that another regional, California-based bank (of course), PacWest Bancorp., was weighing a range of strategic options, including a sale.

The Beverly Hills-based bank – whose financial conditions it appears has been far worse than the Fed, which just hiked another 25bps, thought – has been working with a financial adviser and has also been considering a breakup or a capital raise, according to Bloomberg sources. While it is open to a sale, the company hasn’t started a formal auction process.

According to the report, “an outright sale has been hindered because there aren’t many potential buyers interested in the entire bank, which comprises a community lender called Pacific Western Bank and some commercial and consumer lending businesses, the people said.” And similar to SVB and FRC, “a potential buyer would also have to potentially book a big loss marking down some of its loans, the people said.“

On Tuesday, PacWest tumbled 28% as investors retreated from regional bank stocks following JPMorgan’s deal on Monday for the failed First Republic Bank, a transaction which did nothing to ease concerns about regional bank viability, which was to be perfectly expected since today’s rate hike would only make the regional bank deposit run even bigger, something which was obvious to everyone…

… except the Fed!

And sure enough, following the Bloomberg report, PacWest – which had $28 billion in deposits at last check (far less as of this moment) and $44 billion in assets, saw its stock plunge more than 60% after hours…

Bear in mind that just a week ago, PacWest shares surged 17% after the midsize lender said deposits stabilized toward the end of March and rose in April.

“Importantly, deposits stabilized in the latter part of March and rebounded nicely in April, increasing approximately $700 million subsequent to quarter-end,” President and CEO Paul Taylor said in the release

It seems things ‘escalated quickly’ since then.

The broad Regional Bank index is tumbling after hours, now at its lowest since Oct 2020…

… and is dragging down other regional banks with it, especially anything with “west” in its name: 

Western Alliance is down 30%..

And while we are stunned by this level of Fed incompetence: after all, just hours ago Powell was reassuring everyone that US banks are safe and sound…

… not even the Fed will allow this idiocy to continue, and either it will cut rates and inject trillions more in liquidity now that we are clearly at the small bank reserve constraint…

… or it will have a banking crisis on its hands the likes of which have never before been seen.

END

Next on the list of potential bank failures is First Horizon after TD terminated its deal with them.  TD had to fork over 200 million dollars for a termination fee

(zerohedge)

First Horizon Shares Crash After TD Bank Deal “Terminated”

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 07:35 AM

First Horizon Corp. shares crashed in premarket trading after Toronto-Dominion Bank published a statement outlining how a deal to purchase the Memphis-based bank has been “terminated.” The announcement comes after multiple regional banking failures. 

The lenders said they both “entered into a mutual agreement” to terminate their originally announced merger agreement, announced on February 28, 2022. TD said it “does not have a timetable for regulatory approvals to be obtained for reasons unrelated to First Horizon. Because there is uncertainty as to when and if these regulatory approvals can be obtained, the parties mutually agreed to terminate the merger agreement.” 

Under the terms of the termination agreement, Canada’s second-biggest bank will make a $200 million cash payment to First Horizon on top of a $25 million reimbursement payment. 

As a result of the termination, shares of First Horizon plunged 52% in premarket trading. 

TD’s initial plan was to purchase First Horizon for $13.4 billion. It would’ve allowed the Canadian bank to expand its presence in the Southeast with over 400 new bank branches and 1.1 million individual and business customers across 12 states. 

However, the merger termination comes as the US regional banking system is in turmoil. First Republic Bank earlier this week was the second-biggest bank failure in US history and the fourth regional lender to collapse since March after Silvergate Capital Corp., SVB Financial Group’s Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank.

It was only Wednesday evening, hours after Jerome Powell openly lied to the American People during the FOMC press conference stating without a hint of irony that the US banking system is “sound and resilient,” that PacWest Bancorp shares collapsed. 

END

Nordstrom is closing its huge San Francisco store citing deteriorating situation i.e. continual crime crisis. Seems that many big operations are shutting down operations in San Francisco.

(zerohedge)

Nordstrom Closing San Francisco Stores, Citing “Deteriorating Situation” Amid Crime Crisis

WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 07:10 PM

Stick a fork in San Francisco: the city seems to be beyond repair.

After 35 years, Nordstrom is closing its downtown San Francisco stores, citing “the deteriorating situation” in the city plagued by crime and governed by mindless progressives. 

According to ABC7 News, the Nordstrom Rack on Market Street will close on July 1, and Nordstrom inside Westfield Mall will close in August. 

Jamie Nordstrom, Chief Stores Officer, sent a letter to impacted workers of both stores and explained that “the dynamics of the downtown San Francisco market have changed dramatically over the past several years, impacting customer foot traffic to our stores and our ability to operate successfully.”

The impending exodus of Nordstrom comes as several other retailers, such as Office Depot, The Container Store, Anthropologie, Whole Foods, and Saks Off 5th, have all recently announced store closures. The reason for the closures is that cost of operation for retailers is soaring as progressive city officials won’t address out-of-control thefts and street crime. 

Since 2020, twenty retailers have closed their stores in San Francisco’s Union Square, as the San Francisco Standard reported. All have pointed to theft. In other areas, CVS and Walgreens have shuttered stores. 

As for the retailers who remain in the city, such as Target, they’ve had to lock entire aisles behind safety glass to prevent shoplifting. 

The retail departures are yet another blow for the city as the tech downturn worsens, coupled with the regional banking crisis, which has spread into commercial real estate, mainly the office space segment. 

The gold-standard measure of office occupancy trends is the card-swipe data provided by Kastle Systems. The average office occupancy in San Fran is around 45%, still well off the highs from pre-pandemic levels.

This means that workers have been slow to return to the office, which is evident as Salesforce, Meta Platforms, and other tech companies are hemorrhaging office space, hurting the local economy. 

Other stores in the crime-ridden city may also be leaving soon due to approaching lease end dates. 

*   *   * 

Jamie Nordstrom, Chief Stores Officer, sent the following message to employees:

“Today we announced that we’ve made the difficult decision not to renew our leases at the San Francisco Centre Nordstrom store and our Market Street Rack store across the street. Market Street Rack’s last day of business will be July 1 and we intend to close San Francisco Centre at the end of August.

Decisions like this are never easy, and this one has been especially difficult. We’ve spent more than 35 years serving customers in downtown San Francisco, building relationships with them and investing in the local community. But as many of you know, the dynamics of the downtown San Francisco market have changed dramatically over the past several years, impacting customer foot traffic to our stores and our ability to operate successfully. With both leases set to expire, and after looking closely at our opportunities in the region, we believe we can better serve our customers there by focusing on our 16 nearby Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack locations, as well as online.

I want to be really clear that this decision had nothing to do with our team’s hard work. They should be proud of everything they’ve achieved together and the way they’ve shown up and served the community. We’re working with each impacted employee to support them through this transition and find new roles within the company wherever possible.

Stores continue to play a critical part in delivering our Closer to You strategy, and we continue to be opportunistic about new store locations, relocations and concepts. In fact, we have 20 new Rack store openings planned this year, with more to come in 2024. We also remain committed to the Bay Area market and have made significant investments in our stores there over the past several years. We recently announced a new Nordstrom Rack store will open in Pinole, CA, and completed a remodel at our Valley Fair Nordstrom store.”

Read the full statement from Westfield Mall below:

“The planned closure of Nordstrom underscores the deteriorating situation in downtown San Francisco. A growing number of retailers and businesses are leaving the area due to the unsafe conditions for customers, retailers, and employees, coupled with the fact that these significant issues are preventing an economic recovery of the area.

URW has actively engaged with City leaders for many years to express our serious concerns, which are shared by our customers and retailers. We have urged the City to find solutions to the key issues and lack of enforcement against rampant criminal activity.

The current environment is not sustainable for the community, or businesses, and we are hopeful the City will implement the changes that are so urgently needed.”

END

Now Qualcomm collapses due to demand weakness

(zerohedge)

Qualcomm Plunges After Smartphone Demand Weakness Persists

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 10:55 AM

Days after Sony Group Corp., the world’s top provider of image sensors for smartphones, warned a recovery in handheld devices wouldn’t occur this year, Qualcomm Inc., the largest maker of smartphone processors, presented more industry gloom. 

On Wednesday, Qualcomm announced second-quarter earnings, which ended March 26, were in line with analyst expectations. However, revenue from handset chips, a core business for the San Diego-based company, experienced a 17% plunge compared to the same period last year. 

Weak demand for smartphones increased handset chip inventory, the company’s primary revenue source. CEO Cristiano Amon assured investors that orders would rebound once phone manufacturers deplete inventories. However, he said, this clearing process might take longer than initially expected. To mitigate future risks, he said Qualcomm would diversify chipmaking into other sectors, such as automotive, networking, computing, and wearable devices. 

“As we navigate this challenging environment, we remain focused on the critical factors we can control to emerge stronger from this downturn — our leading technology road map, best-in-class product portfolio, strong customer relationships and operational efficiencies,” Amon said in the statement. He continued:

 “Our top priority remains to execute our diversification strategy and invest in areas that drive long-term value.”

Qualcomm offered a bearish outlook for smartphones, expecting the total market to contract by a percentage range in the high single digits in 2023. It forecasted inventory reductions by companies would continue for two more quarters. Amon also said China demand has yet to return. 

“Common sense and the overall expectation was that the China market was going to bounce back,” he said on a conference call with analysts. “We’ve not seen those signs yet.”

Qualcomm’s bearish view was shared by Sony’s statement from last week, which suggested no signs of recovery in smartphone markets in the immediate future. 

Shares of Qualcomm trading in New York on Thursday morning were down as much as 8%. 

Here is the reaction from Wall Street analysts covering Qualcomm (list courtesy of Bloomberg):

Morgan Stanley (overweight, PT $125) 

• Surprised by Qualcomm’s “characterization of the drawdown as an Apple phenomenon” 
• “Weaker smartphone business will persist at least through September”

KeyBanc (overweight, PT $145 from $160) 

• Demand for smartphones has deteriorated as China remains weak
•  “Macro headwinds intensify, compounded by AAPL’s pull-ins”

Piper Sandler (Overweight, PT cut to $120 from $145) 

• Qualcomm reported mixed quarterly results, forecast was below due to inventory corrections
•  “Potential pre-buying from Apple, which is going to result in muted seasonality for the September 2023 quarter”

Vital Knowledge 

• The results “were fine,” but the outlook “was very light” and the comments about the macroeconomic backdrop were “gloomy”

Third Bridge 

• The results show “persisted weakening in the smartphone market,” and the outlook “says that for the short term, these challenging conditions are likely to persist”
•  “By the end of 2023, inventories will start to be cleared out, and the market will begin to stabilize in 2024”

Concerns about recession may be pushing demand lower for pricy smartphones and other electronics among consumers. 

USA COVID//

END

SWAMP STORIES

Looks like that they have the goods on Biden: he was engaged in a bribery scheme with a foreign national according to FBI internal documens

The noose tightens for Joe.

Robert Hryniak
to

END

Looks like that they have the goods on Biden: he was engaged in a bribery scheme with a foreign national according to FBI internal documens

(zerohedge)

Joe Biden ‘Engaged In A Bribery Scheme With A Foreign National’: FBI Internal Document Alleges

WEDNESDAY, MAY 03, 2023 – 02:40 PM

President Joe Biden allegedly participated in “a criminal scheme” to exchange money for policy decisions, according to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Rep. James Comer (R-KY), citing an internal FBI document they say contains evidence of the alleged bribery which took place when Biden was Vice President.

“We have received legally protected and highly credible unclassified whistleblower disclosures, ” reads a Wednesday letter addressed to Attorney General Merrick Garland and FBI Director Christopher Wray. “It has come to our attention that the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) possess an unclassified FD-1023 form that describes an alleged criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Biden and a foreign national relating to the exchange of money for policy decisions. It has been alleged that the document includes a precise description of how the alleged criminal scheme was employed as well as its purpose.”

“We believe the FBI possesses an unclassified internal document that includes very serious and detailed allegations implicating the current President of the United States,” said Grassley in a joint statement.

“The information provided by a whistleblower raises concerns that then-Vice President Biden allegedly engaged in a bribery scheme with a foreign national. The American people need to know if President Biden sold out the United States of America to make money for himself,” said Comer.

Grassley has long raised concerns about political bias infecting high-level investigative decisions at the FBI, including investigations related to the Biden family’s foreign business arrangements and bank records. While FBI Director Christopher Wray pledged to prevent any retaliation targeting whistleblowers, the FBI and Justice Department have thus far refused to voluntarily provide responsive records or answers to congressional inquiries related to its handling of these politically sensitive investigations.

Comer and the Oversight Committee are investigating the Biden family’s suspicious business schemes to determine if the Biden family has been targeted by foreign actors, if President Biden is compromised, and if there is a national security threat. The Oversight Committee has obtained thousands of pages of financial records related to the Biden family and their associates’ business transactions. Recently, the Committee revealed one deal that resulted in several members of the Biden family and their companies receiving over $1 million in more than 15 incremental payments from a Chinese company through a third party. –oversight.house.gov

Comer has issued a subpoena to Wray to appear before the Committee on Oversight and Accountability on May 10 at Noon.

THE KING REPORT

GREG HUNTER

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