by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Editi

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $19.70 TO $1943.55

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.32   AT $22.81

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1940.75

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 22.73

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Bitcoin morning price:, $26,234  DOWN 5  Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $26,506  UP 267 dollars

Platinum price closing  $1025.95 DOWN $25.90

Palladium price;     $1406.50 DOWN $46.35

“Our system is so stinkin’ corrupt that we owe Sodom and Gomorrah an apology.” … Trader Dan Norcini in 2009

GO GATA!

END

Yesterday, we finished with option expiry for the comex and now we must endure some pain as we wait the conclusion of LBMA options expiry

May 31/2023.

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,644.00 DOWN 18.00 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1574.69 DOWN 9.61 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1809.07 DOWN 13.02 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,962.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/24/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 05/26/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

118 C MACQUARIE FUT 23
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 54
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 6
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 23
661 C JP MORGAN 21
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 2
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 3
880 H CITIGROUP 43
905 C ADM 23

---

TOTAL: 100 100
MONTH TO DATE: 6,139

JPMorgan stopped 21/100 contracts

FOR MAY:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2023. CONTRACT:  100 NOTICES FOR 10000 OZ  or  0.3110 TONNES

total notices so far: 6139 contracts for 613,900 oz (19.094 tonnes)

FOR  MAY:

SILVER NOTICES: 4 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 20,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :  2558 for 12,790,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

---

---

END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP DOWN $9.50..

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//WOW!!

/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////

INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES 

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS AT THE SLV// 

SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//: ; : INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 471.606 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 82 CONTRACTS TO 135,658 AND CLOSER TO THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS TINY SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.35 FALL  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 719 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION NEXT MONTH.  CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY: A STRONG 719 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THEY VALUE 0 TO A POSITION LIMIT IF A CALENDAR SPREAD OCCURS. IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED THE COMPLAINT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO ALL OF THOSE DEMOCRATIC CRIMES COMMITTED WITH NO ATTENTION GIVEN BY ATTORNEY GENERALS.

WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.35). AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF  319 CONTRACTS   WE HAD 500 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 2.5 MILLION OZ// (  THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 6.750 MILLION OZ.).  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION. WE WILL HAVE IN OUR FINAL WEEK IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE MORE MANIPULATION IN OUR PRECIOUS METALS  DUE TO COMEX SPREADERS LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING OPTIONS EXPIRY ON BOTH THE COMEX AND LONDON’S LBMA ALONG WITH AN ADDED FEATURE OF TAS LIQUIDATION.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 

A SMALL  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 250 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  13.105 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON  OF 5,000 OZ (E.F.P. JUMP LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING)+2.5 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK// TOTAL 6.75 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH (RAISES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING):THUS TOTAL OF 20.245 MILLION OZ  OF SILVER  STANDING FOR DELIVERY  V)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI)  HUGE NUMBER OF SHORT T.A.S. CONTRACT INITIATION (719 CONTRACTS)//CONSIDERABLE T.A.S LIQUIDATION MANIPULATING THE PRICE SOUTHBOUND.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  -removed  151 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 19 days, total 11,775 contracts:   OR 58.875 MILLION OZ . (619 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  58.875 MILLION OZ 

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE 

APRIL  118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 58.875 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 82  CONTRACTS  WITH OUR FAIR SIZED  $0.35 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 250  ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF  13.105 MILLION  OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP    OF 5,000 OZ (DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) +//  + 2.5 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK  TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH= 6.75 MILLION//NEW TOTALS 13.495 MILLION OZ + 6.75 MILLION = 20.245 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR MAY//  .. WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 168 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE  719!!//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED.

WE HAD 4  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  20,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 2074  CONTRACTS  TO 477,002 AND FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 347 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 2078 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $9.50 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY. AT 3.5085 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS  200  OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON :(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of   COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)/+ /A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 2554 T.A.S. CONTRACTS/STRONG FRONT END OF TAS LIQUIDATION ////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $9.50 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 1836  OI CONTRACTS (5.716 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3916 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 477,002

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1826 CONTRACTS  WITH 2078 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX//TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): 2554 CONTRACTS) AND 3916 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1836 CONTRACTS OR 5.716 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3916 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2,076) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1836 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.5085 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  E.F.P. JUMP   OF 200 OZ // NEW STANDING: 19.094 TONNES+ 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTALS FOR GOLD STANDING FOR MAY: 20.338 TONNES   // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6:  STRONG T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 2554 CONTRACTS 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  62,888 CONTRACTS OR 6,288,800 OZ OR 195.60 TONNES IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3309 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  195.60 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  195.60/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.62% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY: 195.60 TONNES (HEADING FOR ANOTHER SMALL MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 82  CONTRACTS OI TO  135,658  AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022 

EFP ISSUANCE 250  CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY  250  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  250  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 82 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 250 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 168 CONTRACTS 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTAL 0.84 MILLION OZ 

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.35 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

 2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

 

THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.49 PTS OR 0.11%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 369.01 POINTS OR 1.93%      /The Nikkei closed UP 118.45 OR 0.39%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.03 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.0699 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN  TO 7.0827 /Oil DOWN TO 72.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 76.89 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL  RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3  CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2078 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 477,002 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.50 ON WEDNESDAY,

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3916  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  JUNE 3916 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3916 CONTRACTS 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 1826  CONTRACTS IN THAT 3916 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2078 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.50. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE),THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE TODAY WAS A GIGANTIC  2554 CONTRACTS.  DURING THIS WEEK THEY SOLD THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE).  FOR EXAMPLE WITH TONIGHT’S READING OF TAS, 100% OF ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. WAS JUNE AND AUGUST.  

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:    MAY  (20.338) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2003:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $9.50) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR SMALL  SIZED GAIN OF 1836 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION. AND NOW FOR THE FIRST TIME TAS LIQUIDATION IS EXTENDING PAST MID MONTH.

 WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 5.716 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY. (3.5085 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON  OF 200 oz//NEW STANDING 19.094 TONNES+1.244 exchange for risk(prior)// new total 20.345 tonnes  ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH  OUR LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $9/50

WE HAD +ADDED  347       CONTRACTS  TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1826  CONTRACTS OR 182600  OZ OR 5.716 TONNES.

Estimated gold comex today 334,713// good//raid

final gold volumes/yesterday   312,691//   good/raid

//MAY 25/ MAY  2023 CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	.       nil
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	231,133.539 oz Delaware Malca 7189 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today	100  notice(s) 10,000 OZ 0.0000 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	0  contracts    0 oz 0.000 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	6139 notices 613,900  OZ 19.094 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits:  2

i) Into Delaware  5076.539 oz (189 kilobars)

ii) Into Malca:  225,057.000 oz (7000 kilobars)

total deposits:  231,133.539 oz  7139 kilobars

 customer withdrawals: 0

i) Out of Brinks:  385.810 oz (12 kilobars)

total withdrawals: 385.810   oz  

Adjustments;  1 dealer to customer/ JPMorgan

i) Out of JPMorgan:  117,769.110 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.

For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 100  contracts having LOST 2 contracts.  We had 0 contracts filed

on WEDNESDAY, so we LOST 2 contracts or an additional 200 oz will not  stand for gold in this non active delivery month of May as these guys were EFP.’d to London where they will try and take delivery over there. 

June LOST A HUGE 28,289  contracts DOWN to 111,888 contracts.  We have 3 more reading days before first day notice.

July added 180 contracts to stand at 2803 contracts.

AUGUST GAINED 24,663 contracts UP to 305,212 contracts  

We had 100 contracts filed for today representing  10,000 oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 100   contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 21  notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6,139 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  MAY (100  CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  100 x 100 oz per contract equals 613,900 OZ  OR 19.094 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON-   active month of May. And now we must add 1.244 tonnes of gold delivery through our 400 contract exchange for risk//new total 20.338 tonnes of gold.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:  No of notices filed so far (6,139 x 100 oz) x  xxx OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (100)x 100 oz} which equals 613,800 oz standing OR 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 (exchange for risk) = 20.338 tonnes

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 20.338 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.  

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,696,563.034  OZ   52.77 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,843,438.663  OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  11,766,645.594   (365,99  tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,076,793.069  O Z  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,070,082 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 313.221 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

MAY 25//2023// THE MAY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,087,462.838 oz CNT Brinks HSBC Delaware .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	532,257.716 oz HSBC JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)	4  CONTRACT(S)    (20,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	141 contracts  (705,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	2558 Contracts  (12,790,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0

total: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into HSBC:  522,601.416 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan  9656.300

Total deposits: 169,641.100    oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 141.373  million oz/271.605 million =51.91% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals 4

i) out of CNT :  20,266.270 oz

ii) Out of Brinks: 68,577.970 oz

iii) Out of HSBC: 463,164.360 oz

iv) out of Delaware  535,454.288 oz

Total withdrawal: 1,087m462.838    oz

adjustments:  0/

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 30.195 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 271.605 million oz

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2023 OI: 145   CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 26  CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 25 CONTRACTS FILED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE LOST ONE CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL NOT  STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND  AS THEY WERE E.F.P.’d TO LONDON

JUNE HAD A 9 CONTRACT LOSS TO 1115

JULY HAD A 2047 CONTRACT LOSS TO 107,296 CONTRACTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 4 for 20,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  63,152  good/raid

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 57,125  FAIR

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2558 x  5,000 oz = 12,790,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(145) and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAY/2023 contract month:  2558 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of May (145) – number of notices served upon today (4 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates to 13.495 million oz  + THE CRIMINAL 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 6.750//NEW TOTAL 20.245 MILLION OZ// 

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

MAY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES

MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.50 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES

MAY 23/WITH GOLD $2.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES

MAY 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.83 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD DESPITE THE L0SS IN PRICE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.94 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934,07 

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.84 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES

MAY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.70 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES

MAY 9/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY:  HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.77 TONNES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AS DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES

MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $19.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.47 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES

MAY 2/WITH GOLD UP $32.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES/

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES

APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 941.29 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MAY 25.WITH SILVER DOWN $0.32 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.606 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.35 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//

MAY 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION  OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ

MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ/

MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .643 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ.

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ/

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 3,123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ./

MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.18 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ

MAY 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.286 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ//

MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A TINY DEPOSIT OF .08 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.682 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.602 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.876 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .174 MILLION OZ INTO SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.174 MILLION OZ//

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.070 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.482 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.103 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.182 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.102 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.285 MILLION OZ

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387  MILLION OZ.

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 471.606 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

Citigroup Projects $30 Silver In The Next 6-12 Months

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Citigroup projects silver could rise to $30 an ounce in the next six months to a year.

With silver currently in the $23.50 range, this represents a possible 27.66% return.

We think recent price weakness offers a strong dip-buying opportunity, reiterating our call for $30/oz silver over the next 6-12 months as US growth rolls over, even if emerging markets growth stagnates.”

Silver is currently in a dip. The white metal is down almost 7%  this month after cumulative gains of 20% over the past two months. Silver was above $26 at one point. But the dip appears to be temporary.

Citigroup analysts aren’t buying the Federal Reserve’s hawkish posturing. They think interest rates will fall in the near future as a recession takes hold.

We expect silver would rally in anticipation of the fall in US interest rates and real yields that will likely accompany an anticipated rollover in US growth in Q4’22 or early 2024. This should weigh on the dollar, with Citi economists expecting US rates and the dollar to weaken further.”

Citigroup analysts said these dynamics should underpin demand for ETF silver.

Weaker competition for investment capital from other asset classes should also support silver pricing as markets increasingly price US recession risks.”

They also expect a potential increase in demand for silver in China.

Our economists expect China to continue to gradually recover and any associated rebound in EM [emerging market] growth sentiment could be an incremental tailwind for silver. … We expect China demand could recover in 2H 23 following further easing measures by the PBoC.”

There are other bullish signs for silver the Citigroup analysis didn’t mention.

The silver-gold ratio still indicates silver is on sale.

The current silver-gold ratio is just over 83-1. That means it takes over 83 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. To put that into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 50:1. Historically, the ratio has always returned to that mean. And when it does, it does it with a vengeance. The ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 and below 20-1 in 1979.

Historically, when the spread gets this wide, silver doesn’t just outperform gold, it goes on a massive run in a short period of time. Since January 2000, this has happened four times. As this chart shows, the snapback is swift and strong.

The supply-demand dynamics also look good for silver.

Silver demand set a record in every category last year, including industrial demand. Industrial offtake accounts for about half of the global demand, and that is only expected to increase in the years ahead as the push toward “green energy” continues.

Silver is an important component in solar panels. According to a study by scientists at the University of New South Wales, solar manufacturers will likely require over 20% of the current annual silver supply by 2027. And by 2050, solar panel production will use approximately 85–98% of the current global silver reserves.

On the other side of the equation, supply was flat last year and it’s expected to be flat again in 2023.

Record global silver demand and a lack of supply upside contributed to last year’s 237.7 million ounce market deficit. It was the second consecutive annual deficit in a row. The Silver Institute called it “possibly the most significant deficit on record.” It also noted that “the combined shortfalls of the previous two years comfortably offset the cumulative surpluses of the last 11 years.”

Based on the supply and demand fundamentals and Citigroup’s analysis, this may be the perfect time to buy silver.

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

John Rubino..part i

Very important..

Next Gen Money, Part 1: Texas Re-Imagines The Dollar

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 11:05 AM

Authored by John Rubino via Substack,

Digital currency might be a good thing in the right hands…

With all the (completely justified) angst surrounding central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), it’s easy to forget that the concept of digital money isn’t the problem. It’s just a tool like any other and can be used for good or evil, depending on who’s wielding it.

Obviously, if a CBDC is managed by some combination of the Federal Reserve, the military-industrial complex, the intelligence community, and Big Pharma, that currency will be a mechanism of state control and should be avoided at all costs. But if it’s backed by gold or silver and run transparently by people who respect their citizens’ privacy and agency, then it’s potentially part of a brighter monetary future.

This brings us to Texas Senate Bill 2334, which calls for the introduction of a state-run digital currency, backed by gold and/or silver, accepted as legal tender within the state and available to people living anywhere in the world.

Texas is a logical first mover since in the 2010s it opened a state gold depository where citizens could safely store their bullion. Think of it as Texas’ Fort Knox. This depository gives the state a physical starting point for establishing a gold-backed currency.

From the Epoch Times:

Texas Lawmakers Consider Creating Gold-Based Digital Currency for Use by Anyone Anywhere

Texas could become the first state in the nation to issue its own digital currency based on gold and silver.

The Texas Senate could vote on Senate Bill 2334 this week. A similar bill in the Texas House, House Bill 4903, did not advance.

If the Texas digital currency proposal becomes law, money could be spent with a debit card by people anywhere in the world, not just within Texas.

Under the proposed law, the Texas comptroller would create a digital currency based on gold or silver and would be given the authority to mint pure gold or silver coins based on weight.

The coins and the digital currency would be considered legal tender to pay debts and would be “readily transferable … to another person,” according to the bill.  

Under the plan, the digital money debit card could be used anywhere debit cards are accepted. People outside of Texas could create accounts and use the system wherever they live in the world as long as it’s legal.

The state comptroller, or a trustee hired to oversee the program, would purchase and hold enough gold or silver to cover the units of digital currency set aside for each account holder.

How a gold standard works

To make sure we’re all on the same conceptual page, a gold standard is a monetary system in which the circulating currency is backed by gold stored in a government vault. Gold and currency are convertible into each other at the discretion of their owners, which prevents the government from creating too much currency. And that’s it. No half-wit Ivy League economists rewarding their future hedge fund employers with artificially-low interest rates. No reporters asking repetitive softball questions of the aforementioned economists, and no money managers building careers on predicting what irrational thing the Fed will do next.

The central bank becomes not much more than a bank teller window, exchanging gold for cash and cash for gold. Money becomes part of the environment, a stable thing that no one worries about, rather than a tool the authorities use to manipulate markets. The rich lose the ability to game the system by buying politicians and Fed governors, so economic inequality is less of an issue. In short, the good effects of a gold standard far outweigh the bad.

Some other possible effects of Texas starting its own gold-backed currency:

• The Texas Gold Depository might become a gold/silver storage alternative to vaults in Singapore or Switzerland. For the average American, Texas would seem a lot less exotic and intimidating as a place to store physical precious metals.
• The resulting capital inflows would, other things being equal, benefit the Texas economy.
• It would serve as a proof-of-concept experiment demonstrating how a state-sponsored gold-backed digital currency would work, possibly inspiring competitors around the world.
• It would increase demand for gold and silver, giving people another way to vote with their bank accounts for a return to a gold/silver standard. The result might be a positive feedback loop in which rising demand for gold-backed currencies pushes up the price of gold, making the currencies even more attractive, and so on, until gold and silver approach their intrinsic values of $10,000 and $500 an ounce, respectively.

It’s way too early for predictions, but the best-case scenarios for state-based gold-backed digital currencies are exciting. In any event, it’s nice to be able to report some positive monetary news for a change.

end

Crooks!

New Evidence Emerges that the Investigation of the Fed’s Trading Scandal by the Inspector General Has Been a Coverup from the Beginning

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: May 25, 2023

Unlike his three immediate predecessors who chaired the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan), who all had doctoral degrees in economics, the current Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, has a law degree from Georgetown University.

Given his legal education, one might have expected that when Fed Chair Powell became aware of the largest trading scandal in the Fed’s history in September of 2021, he would have done his legal due diligence to determine where to refer the matter for investigation.

While multiple Wall Street watchdogs called for Powell to refer the investigation to the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission – which conduct all legitimate insider trading investigations involving publicly-traded stocks — the Fed instead referred the investigation on October 4, 2021 to the Federal Reserve Board’s own Inspector General, who is appointed by the Chair of the Fed, reports to the Fed Board (including the Chair) and can be fired by a two-thirds vote of the Fed Board.

The Fed Inspector General to whom the investigation was referred is Mark Bialek, who was appointed to the position by Fed Chair Ben Bernanke in 2011, just four days after an explosive audit of the Fed’s emergency bailout programs during and after the 2008 financial crisis was released by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). That audit showed that the Fed had secretly sluiced more than $16 trillion in cumulative loans to the mega banks on Wall Street and their foreign derivative counterparties from December 2007 to at least July of 2010. A statement from Senator Bernie Sanders’ office at the time included the following:

“The Fed outsourced virtually all of the operations of their emergency lending programs to private contractors like JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo. The same firms also received trillions of dollars in Fed loans at near-zero interest rates. Altogether some two-thirds of the contracts that the Fed awarded to manage its emergency lending programs were no-bid contracts. Morgan Stanley was given the largest no-bid contract worth $108.4 million to help manage the Fed bailout of AIG.”

Not to put too fine a point on it, but JPMorgan also played a key role in causing the financial crisis.

The bank holding companies of JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo are supervised by the Federal Reserve, as is every other Wall Street mega bank holding company. At the same time, these mega banks are sitting on committees at the New York Fed to determine “best practices” for their industry. See our report: New York Fed’s Answer to Cartels Rigging Markets – Form Another Cartel.

Equally Orwellian, the Federal Reserve Board outsources the role of bank examiners to its regional Fed Banks, which – wait for it – are, literally, owned by the banks being examined, and who get to elect two-thirds of the Board of Directors of their respective regional Fed Bank. See our report: These Are the Banks that Own the New York Fed and Its Money Button.

This Kafkaesque situation resulted in one such bank examiner at the New York Fed, Carmen Segarra, rushing to the Spy Store in lower Manhattan for a tiny microphone to record the bizarre goings on at the New York Fed when she attempted to write a negative bank examination of Goldman Sachs.

On July 11, 2022, Bialek publicly released a letter clearing Fed Chair Powell and former Vice Chair Richard Clarida of violating any “laws, rules, regulations, or policies” for their part in the trading scandal. Bialek’s statement further indicated that “The investigation of senior Reserve Bank officials is ongoing.”

The senior Reserve Bank officials that Bialek is referring to include Robert Kaplan, former Dallas Fed President, and Eric Rosengren, former Boston Fed President. Both stepped down in September 2021 when news of the trading scandal first broke. See our reports: Robert Kaplan Was Trading Like a Hedge Fund Kingpin for Five Years while President of the Dallas Fed; a Dozen Legal Safeguards Failed to Stop Him and Was Boston Fed President Rosengren Trading with Citigroup’s Money?

Powell has repeatedly refused to answer press questions on the matter, stating that the investigation was in the hands of the Inspector General. For example, the following exchange occurred at Powell’s press conference on January 26, 2022, following an FOMC meeting, when Bloomberg News reporter Craig Torres raised the issue:

Torres: “Chair Powell, I have a quick administrative question. You know, Robert Kaplan’s disclosure of his securities transactions: In a couple of months, Chair Powell, or maybe sooner, you and I will file our tax returns. And we’ll list transactions and all kinds of things. And next to those transactions we’ll put dates. And Bloomberg asked for the dates of Mr. Kaplan’s transactions. The Dallas Fed is not giving us the dates. And I don’t see why this is a matter for the Inspector General or anybody else. I mean, why can’t he give us the dates? Will you help us get the dates of those transactions? Thanks.”

Powell: “I know you’ve been all over this issue with my colleagues, Craig, on the issue of information. We don’t have that information at the Board. And, you know, I had — I asked the Inspector General to do an investigation, and that is out of my hands. I’m playing no role in it. I seek to play no role in it. And I don’t — I really — I can’t help you here today on this issue. And I’m sorry I can’t.”

The financial disclosure form that Kaplan and every other Federal Reserve Bank President is required to file clearly indicates that the filer is required to give the month, day and year of each purchase and each sale of a stock or other trading instrument. The form even provides an example of how it wants the date shown, e.g., 2/1/93.

Kaplan was a former CPA with Peat Marwick Mitchell and 22-year veteran of the trading powerhouse Goldman Sachs, where he rose to the rank of Vice Chairman. Kaplan knew, or should have known, that he was evading the prescribed rules of the Federal Reserve system when he substituted the word “multiple” for the specific dates of his trades. Kaplan didn’t do this just on his financial disclosure form for 2020, when the Fed was making unprecedented market interventions during the first year of the pandemic, Kaplan did this on every financial disclosure form that he filed annually from 2015 through 2020. (See Kaplan’s 2015 through 2020 financial disclosure forms here.) And in each of those years Kaplan was, astonishingly, trading in S&P 500 futures contracts, an instrument used typically by hedge funds and other speculators to make highly leveraged bets on the direction of the market.

Every other Fed Bank President and every member of the Fed Board of Governors’ financial disclosure forms for 2020 that we reviewed listed the specific dates of each purchase and each sale of a trading instrument. But Kaplan did not list the dates of his trades for six running years.

Kaplan’s financial disclosure forms suggest that Kaplan maintained a trading relationship with Goldman Sachs, since he lists proprietary products created by “GS,” short for Goldman Sachs.

Wall Street On Parade previously reached out via email to a total of five Goldman Sachs press contacts, inquiring as to whether Kaplan was conducting his “over $1 million” S&P 500 trades and/or his individual stock trades at their firm. (Goldman Sachs’ sophisticated compliance officers should have refused such trades, and certainly in 2020 when Kaplan was a voting member of the FOMC and the Fed was taking unpresented market moving actions throughout the year in response to the pandemic.)

Goldman Sachs declined to answer our questions. The Dallas Fed refused to tell us if Kaplan was using S&P 500 futures to short the market — a bet that the market would go down.

Bialek has been silent on his investigation of Kaplan and Rosengren for more than 19 months now – other than to say that his investigation continues.

New evidence has now emerged that Bialek’s Office of the Inspector General never had the statutory authority to investigate the trading of Fed regional bank presidents in the first place.

Two days ago we sent the following email inquiry to the press office for the Federal Reserve Board’s Inspector General and a similar one to the Federal Reserve Board’s press office. We wrote:

The most recent 2021 Fed Annual Report (as well as previous ones) refer to the reach of the Inspector General of the Fed’s Board of Governors as follows:

“In addition, the OIG conducts audits, evaluations, investigations, and other reviews relating to the Board’s programs and operations as well as to Board functions delegated to the Reserve Banks. Certain aspects of Federal Reserve operations are also subject to review by the Government Accountability Office.”

In addition, in written testimony for the May 17 Senate Banking hearing, an academic scholar on Fed history, Peter Conti-Brown wrote this:

“Congress did create Inspectors General in 1978 to provide some of this oversight. The inspector general for the Federal Reserve, however, is appointed by consultation between the Fed and the CFPB, which shares a single individual inspector general. To be more precise still, this inspector general oversees only the Fed’s Board of Governors, not the Federal Reserve System.” [Bold emphasis added for this article.]

In addition, I found nothing in the Inspector General Act of 1978 (as amended) that gives the Fed Board’s OIG the authority to investigate the privately-owned Fed regional bank presidents’ trading activities.

So my question is, under what statutory authority is the Fed Board’s OIG investigating the trading activities of former Fed Bank presidents?

My deadline is tomorrow, May 24, at 6 p.m. ET.

Best regards,

Pam Martens

Editor, Wall Street On Parade

The press office for the Federal Reserve Board told us our question belonged at the press office for the Inspector General. The press office for the Inspector General cited to Bialek’s July 11, 2022 statement, while ignoring our direct question of: “under what statutory authority is the Fed Board’s OIG investigating the trading activities of former Fed Bank presidents?”

Bialek appeared as a witness at the May 17 Senate Banking Subcommittee on Economic Policy hearing last week. Senator Elizabeth Warren, Chair of the Subcommittee, showed her exasperation with Bialek’s stonewalling, stating as follows:

“You have had a year and a half. You did not call out the trades that we can see. Let us just put it this way, this is not strong oversight. In fact, it is not even competent oversight. It looks like, to anyone in the public, that you gave your boss a free pass, and that’s just not gonna cut it here. And even today, a year and a half later, the Fed continues to stonewall Congress, stonewall the public, on the underlying information about these trades. This is not acceptable. This is why we are pushing for an independent IG.”

Senator Warren has bipartisan support in the Senate to tinker around the edges of the Fed in hopes of reforming it. That includes barring executives from Wall Street mega banks from serving on regional Fed Reserve Bank’s Boards of Directors and making the Fed’s Inspector General a presidentially appointed/Senate-confirmed position.

The American people understand that tinkering is not going to reform what Senator Warren herself calls a “culture of corruption” at the Fed. This culture has become too deeply ingrained over 110 years to be cured by tinkering at the edges.

The place to start with reform is to strip the Fed of any supervisory role of these Wall Street mega banks; strip the Fed of any ability to make trillions of dollars in secret loans to these Wall Street mega banks and their trading casinos; and separate the federally-insured banks from the Wall Street trading casinos by restoring the Glass-Steagall Act, which protected the U.S. from this kind of insanity from 1933 to its repeal in 1999.

end

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

UAE plus other countries are cashing in big time importing Russian gold due to the stupid sanctions.  Some refiners have stopped using Russian gold and this set up the UAE with its 75 tonnes of gold in 2021 as the central hub.  You can be assured that the 2022 number of gold imports to the uAE will be higher than 2021.

India will be using them to buy gold to purchase Russian oil

(Peter Hobson/Reuters)

---

UAE cashes in with Russian gold as sanctions bite

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-05-25 09:09Section: Daily Dispatches

By Peter Hobson
Reuters
Thursday, May 25, 2023

LONDON — the United Arab Emirates has become a key trade hub for Russian gold since Western sanctions over Ukraine cut Russia’s more traditional export routes, Russian customs records show.

The records, which contain details of nearly a thousand gold shipments in the year since the Ukraine war started, show the Gulf state imported 75.7 tonnes of Russian gold worth $4.3 billion — up from just 1.3 tonnes during 2021

China and Turkey were the next biggest destinations, importing about 20 tonnes each between Feb. 24, 2022 and March 3, 2023. With the UAE, the three countries accounted for 99.8% of the Russian gold exports in the customs data for this period.

In the days after the Ukraine conflict started, many multinational banks, logistics providers and precious metal refiners stopped handling Russian gold, which had typically been shipped to London, a gold trading and storage hub. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/russia-with-gold-uae-cashes-sanctions-bite-2023-05-25/

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/…

END

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: BASE METAL GIANT NORILSK/Nickel Palladium

How sanctions have backfired again as Norlisk shipped most of its base metals and palladium to Asia

(ZEROHEDGE)

“Redrawing Global Trade Map”: Top Russian Miner Now Receives Half Of Its Revenue In Asia

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24, 2023 – 11:50 PM

The US and its G7 partners have slapped more than 300 economic sanctions on Russia since the invasion of Ukraine over a year ago. Initially, Washington and Brussels pitched the idea of sanctions as a strategy to paralyze Moscow. However, Western sanctions have backfired as Russian companies are redrawing commodity flows from the West to Asia. 

The latest example of global supply chains being rejiggered comes from Russia’s biggest miner MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC. Bloomberg said the miner recorded 45% of revenue from Asia for the first quarter of 2023. Traditionally, its revenue from Europe is the largest but plunged to 24%. Asia’s revenue share has increased from 27% in 2021 to 31% in 2022 to 45% in 2023. 

Nornickel controls about 7% of global nickel output and 40% of palladium. The US and UK have imposed sanctions on Norilsk Nickel’s top shareholder and president, Vladimir Potanin. But no sanctions have been placed on the miner. However, the company faces challenges such as shipping, insurance, and logistics in getting products to Western countries, which is one of the main reasons the miner has easily found new customers in Asia.  

Nornickel sought to increase sales to China this year, in some cases offering metals for yuan, people familiar with the matter said in March. Those prices are set in Shanghai, a sign of how the conflict is redrawing the global trade map for commodities and handing greater power to China, they said. –Bloomberg 

Western sanctions have pushed Russia and China closer:

Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded his Russian visit on Wednesday without much progress on peace in Ukraine. China, however, has pushed for deeper trade and investment links with its northern neighbor using its own currency. That suggests the path of least resistance for yuan internationalization now runs through Moscow instead of London or Singapore. — Bloomberg Markets Live reporter George Lei wrote in March.

Lei also noted the share of yuan in Russia’s export payments has surged:

The share of yuan in Russian export payments surged 32-fold in 2022 to 16% by year-end, according to the Bank of Russia. Its use in Russian imports also jumped to 23% from 4%. Yuan savings accounted for 11% of Russia’s total FX deposits as of January, compared with practically zero when the war broke out. The Chinese currency has also overtaken the dollar and euro as the most traded FX on the Moscow Exchange.

Western sanctions severely limited Russia’s access to dollars and euros, forcing Russian companies to seek new business opportunities in Asia.

(zerohedge)

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

END

 1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN AT 7.0699

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0827

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.49 PTS OR  0.11% 

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN  369.01  PTS OR  1.93%

2. Nikkei closed UP 118.45 PTS OR 0.39%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR: ALL  RED

USA dollar INDEX UP  TO  104.01 EURO FALLS TO 1.0727 DOWN 29 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.429 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 139.61 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN  CHINESE YUAN:  DOWN//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.4690***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.312*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.532…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.852

3j Gold at $1962.15 silver at: 23.07 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND  1 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.16//

3m oil into the 72 dollar handle for WTI and 76  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 139.61  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .429% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9052 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9710 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc. 

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.759  UP 4 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.998  UP 4  BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.441 UP 7 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.93…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.3444 UP 13 BASIS PTS (RATES RISING RAPIDLY)

end

2.  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

US Futures Jump Led By Record-Breaking Surge In Nvidia

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 08:11 AM

US equity futures are higher led by tech names after blowout earnings reported by Nvidia – which as Goldman reminds us “is now #5 weight in the S&P and the poster child for “AI” Euphoria + momentum” – whose stock is up almost 30% premarket and rapidly approaching $1 trillion in market cap. S&P futures  were up 0.6% to 4,151 with Nasdaq 100 futures up  a whopping 2% led higher by NVDA and semi stocks. Bond yields are slightly higher, while USD is stronger. Commodities are mostly lower as WTI fell 1.5% reversing all of yesterday’s gains after Russia played down the likelihood of OPEC+ cutting production further.

In premarket trading, Tech stocks are surging boosted by NVDA which reported after the bell yesterday with forecast beat; stocks is up almost 30% after close. For some context, NVDA added > $200bn in market cap overnight post earnings and as Goldman notes, “this might be the best TMT earnings print we’ve seen since that June qtr 2020 print from Zoom (ZM), when they beat revs by ~62%.”  In any case, it’s another sign that investors are willing to pile into promising tech stocks, despite the growing worries about China’s economy and a potentially catastrophic US debt default.

“If you look at tech it continues to reinvent itself over and over,” Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “I continue to like the big tech names.”

Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) shares tumble 21% after the apparel retailer’s forecast for the full-year disappointed analysts.
• Carnival Corp. (CCL) rises 2.5% after Citi upgrades to buy from hold, citing in note continued good momentum for the cruise sector.
• Desktop Metal (DM) shares trade 9.1% higher after Stratasys agreed to buy the 3D printer company in an all-stock transaction valued at around $1.8 billion. Stratasys shares are up 3.8%, reversing an earlier drop.
• Dish Network Corp. (DISH) shares are down 3.4% after Citi downgraded the satellite television company to neutral from buy.
• Dorian LPG (LPG) upgraded to outperform from inline at Evercore ISI based on valuation, following the propane gas shipper’s fourth-quarter results. Shares are up 1.1%
• Dycom Industries (DY) rises 1.5% as Wells Fargo raises to overweight from equal-weight after the engineering services company “massively” beat first-quarter expectations.
• Leidos (LDOS) rises 1.7% after Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight from equal-weight, saying the engineering company’s valuation includes too much fear around short-term uncertainty, while not taking into account upside for 2024 sales, margin and cash flow.
• Nutanix (NTNX) shares are up 17% after the infrastructure-software company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year. The outlook beat the average analyst estimate. The company also said its audit committee completed an investigation of third-party software usage.
• Nvidia Corp.’s (NVDA) blowout sales forecast puts a fresh emphasis on the latest game in town: identifying artificial intelligence losers. Shares are up 28%.
• Snowflake (SNOW) shares fall 13% after the cloud-software company cut its product revenue guidance for the full year.

In other overnight news, Fitch put US’s AAA rating on negative watch amid debt ceiling concerns, and this morning DBRS echoed the move when it “Placed United States Ratings Under Review With Negative Implications.” McCarthy signaled some progress being made on the negotiation, but representatives are not required to stay in DC over the holiday weekend. Meanwhile, JPM sees the odds of passing x-date without an increase in the ceiling index is now around 25% and rising.

Elsewhere, Treasury-bill yields slated to mature early next month surged above 7% on Wednesday, with the rate on the June 1 and June 6 maturities increasing by more than a percentage point. Those securities are seen as most at risk of non-payment if the government exhausts its borrowing capacity. On Thursday morning, Bills maturing on June 1 traded just around 7%.

“Nvidia was last night’s good surprise,” said Gilles Guibout, head of European equity strategies at Axa Investment Managers. “But more broadly, there are few reasons for the market to keep rising: interest rates are not going down, global economic growth isn’t rebounding, full-year earnings are seen flat and stock valuations are already at a decent level.”

European markets were propped up by chipmakers after sales guidance from Nvidia smashed expectations – shares in the US semiconductor maker are up ~28% in the premarket. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.1% after touching a seven-week low on Wednesday. Here are some of the most notable European movers:

• ASML leads a rally in shares of European semiconductor equipment makers after US chipmaker Nvidia gave a sales forecast that blew past estimates, boosted by burgeoning AI demand
• GN Store Nord gains as much as 10%, the most in a month, after a DKK2.75 billion rights issue removes a “significant overhang” for the Danish hearing-aid and audio equipment firm, Citi says
• Tate & Lyle rises as much as 2.6% after the ingredients company reported FY23 results and forecast revenue growth of 4%-6% for the current fiscal year. The profit beat was impressive, Citi says
• Elekta shares gain as much as 4.8% after the Swedish medical technology firm beat expectations on sales and Ebit, with Handelsbanken noting the company’s free cash flows are at a record high
• D’Ieteren rises as much as 3.3% after the automotive retailer reiterates its pretax profit guidance for the full year. Analysts flag this was maintained despite costs associated with recent refinancing
• QinetiQ rises as much as 2.2%, snapping three days of declines, after the British technology and research firm delivered full-year results that Barclays says beat consensus on all metrics
• ALSO gains as much as 2.4% after Stifel initiated coverage of the Swiss IT and consumer electronics wholesaler with buy, saying its cloud marketplace business is an underestimated value driver
• Allegro shares fall as much as 6.7%, their biggest decline in more than four months, after Poland’s biggest e-commerce platform guided for slower gross merchandise value growth in 2Q
• Johnson Matthey shares decline as much as 3.8%, to the lowest since October, after the UK-based chemicals company published below-consensus guidance for this year and next

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mostly lower with the region cautious after the losses on Wall Street due to debt ceiling fears. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index closed 0.8% lower for the day as sentiment around Chinese markets continued to worsen. The Hang Seng Index shed 1.9% on the day and the yuan broke through the closely-watched 7-per-dollar level. The key worry for investors is that China’s economy is losing momentum and there are persistent financial troubles in the real estate industry. Recent data suggest gross domestic product growth this year will be closer to the government’s target of about 5%, contrary to expectations of a large overshoot formed earlier in the year. The Hang Seng was pressured with underperformance in Hong Kong after the benchmark index slipped beneath the 19,000 level.

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 was kept afloat but with the upside capped in the absence of any major positive drivers.
• Australia’s ASX 200 weakened as the commodity-related sectors led the broad declines across nearly all industries and with sentiment also dampened as households are set to pay hundreds of dollars more each year after the energy regulator approved an increase of up to 25% in electricity bills.
• Korea’s KOSPI was subdued after the BoK rate decision in which the central bank kept rates unchanged as expected, although 6 out of the 7 board members saw the need to keep the door open for one more rate hike.
• Indian stocks recovered late in the day to end higher and outperform most of their Asian peers even as broad sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing concerns of a possible debt default by the US. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.2% to 61,872.62 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.2% to 18,321.15. Stocks of consumer staple, energy and communication services firms, part of the benchmarks, led the recovery as the May futures contract expired.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index climbed for a fourth day, boosted by rising US yields and more-averse trading conditions after Fitch Ratings on Wednesday said it may downgrade the US’s AAA credit rating; the kiwi is the weakest of the G-10 currencies. The USD/JPY was little changed at 139.49, holding near 139.70 hit in earlier trade, its highest since late November.

In rates, treasuries are lower with the US 10-year yield rising 1bps to 3.76% ahead of GDP and claims data. The yield on two-year Treasuries rose 4 basis points to 4.42%, its highest since March; traders are pricing in a nearly 50% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points next month; 10-year yields sit around 3.76%, with gilts trading cheaper by 10bp in the sector as rate-hike premium increases further in sterling swaps. A late Wednesday announcement that Fitch placed US credit on “rating watch negative” elicited limited market reaction. The US auction cycle concludes with $35b 7-year note sale at 1pm, following strong demand for 2- and 5-year sales. WI yield around 3.790% is ~25bp cheaper than last month’s, which tailed by 1.3bp.

Meanwhile, UK government bonds led losses in Europe. Traders added to bets the Bank of England will keep raising interest rates after an unexpectedly strong reading of UK inflation Wednesday. Money markets are now pricing more than 100 basis points of additional tightening by December.  

In commodities, WTI declined 1.3% to trade near $73.40 on Thursday after the dollar strengthened and Russia played down the likelihood of OPEC+ cutting production further. Billionaire mining investor Robert Friedland says the copper market weakness is temporary. Southwestern Energy is among the most active resources stocks in premarket trading, falling 4.6%. 

Bitcoin is lower but holding above the $26k mark despite briefly dropping below in early trade, with the USD capping upside and broader marks still focused on the debt ceiling as we near the US long weekend.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q1 GDP, pending home sales for April, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for May. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin and Collins, ECB Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Nagel, Villeroy, Centeno and De Cos, along with the BoE’s Haskel.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,144.75
• MXAP down 0.8% to 159.34
• MXAPJ down 0.9% to 503.86
• Nikkei up 0.4% to 30,801.13
• Topix down 0.3% to 2,146.15
• Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 18,746.92
• Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,201.26
• Sensex down 0.4% to 61,526.09
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.0% to 7,138.16
• Kospi down 0.5% to 2,554.69
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 457.06
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.47%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.0727
• Brent Futures down 0.9% to $77.68/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,964.02
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.16% to 104.06

Top Overnight News

• China’s muted economic rebound and Beijing’s reluctance to deploy large-scale stimulus are reverberating around the globe, crushing commodity prices and weakening equity markets. Investors are pegging back their expectations for the world’s second-biggest economy as worries mount that its recovery from pandemic restrictions has lost momentum. BBG  
• The widening rift between the world’s two biggest economies, the US and China, now looks in some regards to be irreconcilable, according to Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. The geopolitical situation has become more dangerous amid tensions between the two sides with the Taiwan Strait becoming the region’s “most dangerous flashpoint,” Wong said in his speech at the Nikkei Forum 28th Future of Asia in Tokyo. BBG
• Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday he expected no new steps from the OPEC+ group of oil producers at its meeting in Vienna on June 4, Russian media reported, after the group announced a significant output cut earlier this year. RTRS
• Germany suffered its first recession since the start of pandemic, extinguishing hopes that Europe’s top economy could escape such a fate after the war in Ukraine sent energy prices soaring. First-quarter output shrank 0.3% from the previous three months following a 0.5% drop between October and December, the statistics office said Thursday. Its initial estimate, last month, was for stagnation. BBG
• Don’t expect Fed rate cuts until “well into 2024,” Raphael Bostic warned. “The tightening that we’ve done is just starting to show up,” but it’s not clear how much time it’ll take for higher rates to slow the economy. BBG
• Fitch Ratings is reviewing whether the U.S. should retain its top credit rating as the White House and Republicans struggle to reach an agreement on raising the debt limit. WSJ
• On Friday, June 2, millions of Americans are due a total of $25 billion worth of Social Security payments. And more than anything else, that may prove a decisive element in forcing an end to the partisan standoff over raising the federal debt limit. That obligation is “an enforcement mechanism we can’t ignore,” Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, one of President Joe Biden’s top allies in Congress, said on MSNBC Wednesday. “When they find out that they’re not getting that check, our phones will light up like a Christmas tree.” BBG
• Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic faces a crucial test of whether it can start its commercial space service next month. Unity 25, scheduled to lift off at 8 a.m. local time from New Mexico, will take a six-person crew to the edge of outer space. It’s only been to space four times and has suffered technical issues during flights and a crash in 2014. The company, which had expected to start commercial service at the end of 2022, also must overcome doubts about its financial viability. BBG
• NVDA added > $200bn in market cap overnight post earnings. Hardly any ‘real’ feedback from investors, but this might be the best TMT earnings print we’ve seen since that June qtr 2020 print from Zoom (ZM), when they beat revs by ~62%

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly lower with the region cautious after the losses on Wall St owing to debt ceiling fears and after the FOMC Minutes showed officials were split on support for more hikes, while Fitch placed the US AAA sovereign rating on Rating Watch Negative despite several optimistic comments from House Speaker McCarthy. ASX 200 weakened as the commodity-related sectors led the broad declines across nearly all industries and with sentiment also dampened as households are set to pay hundreds of dollars more each year after the energy regulator approved an increase of up to 25% in electricity bills. Nikkei 225 was kept afloat but with the upside capped in the absence of any major positive drivers. KOSPI was subdued after the BoK rate decision in which the central bank kept rates unchanged as expected, although 6 out of the 7 board members saw the need to keep the door open for one more rate hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured with underperformance in Hong Kong after the benchmark index slipped beneath the 19,000 level, while the mainland was lacklustre amid recent US-China frictions.

Top Asian News

• Chinese companies reportedly switch auditors to avoid US delisting risk, according to FT.
• USTR Tai is reportedly to meet with Taiwan’s minister in charge of the Office of Trade Negotiations.
• BoK maintained its base rate at 3.5%, as expected, through a unanimous decision although six board members saw the need to keep the door open for one more rate hike. BoK statement noted economic growth is to remain weak for some time and inflation will likely fall considerably before rebounding slightly for the rest of the year, while it stated uncertainty is high over the Chinese economy and IT sector, as well as lowered its 2023 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% from 1.6%. Furthermore, BoK Governor Rhee said core inflation is not easing as much as board members had expected and that board members share the opinion that it is premature to talk about a rate cut this year with uncertainty higher over regarding whether inflation will approach the 2% target before year-end.
• RBNZ Governor Orr said rates are restrictive and well above neutral, while he added that economic growth and inflation are weaker than expected although they can change the assessment if needed as new data emerges, according to Reuters.
• BoJ Governor Ueda says we are beginning to see good signs in the economy but still some distance to stably and sustainably hit inflation target; BoJ will patiently sustain easy monetary policy.
• Japan raises May overall economic view for first time since July 2022 and says economy is recovering moderately.

European bourses are mixed after initial pressure on a negative German GDP revision, DAX 40 -0.2%; though, tech is the standout outperformer post-NVDA, with Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3% as such. Stateside, the NQ +1.9% and ES +0.7% are firmer, given Nvidia, while the RTY and YM reside in negative territory amid broader market concern over the debt ceiling and after Fitch’s update. Nvidia (NVDA) Q1 23 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.09 (exp. 0.92), revenue 7.19bln (exp. 6.52bln). Q2 23 revenue view 11bln (+/- 2%) (exp. 7.18bln). CFO said that the data centre revenue rise in the quarter is led by growing demand for generative AI and large language models using GPUs. +24% in pre-market trade. Swiss government to commence consultation on liquidity backstop of all systemically important banks, according to the Finance Ministry; SNB’s Maechler says Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) crisis was one of confidence.

Top European News

• ECB’s Vasle said the ECB must still raise rates further and inflation is becoming increasingly stubborn.
• Riksbank’s Thedeen says the SEKs level is worrying.
• UK’s Ofgem sets the energy price cap at GBP 2074 for dual-fuel households (prev. 3280), for July-September; the cap represents a reduction QQ and a reduction in how much customers will pay on their bills.
• Shipping activity returns to normal in Suez Canal after a malfunctioning ship was towed away, according to Two Canal.

FX

• Dollar remains dominant as US debt ceiling talks proceed productively, DXY tops 104.000 and probes Fib at 104.090.
• Kiwi descends further as RBNZ Governor Orr underscores guidance indicating no further tightening, NZD/USD hovers under 0.6100.
• Euro undermined by unexpected negative German Q1 GDP print, EUR/USD fades from just above 1.0750 and EUR/GBP retreats through sub-0.8700 10 DMA.
• Sterling rebounds towards 1.2400 vs Buck as Gilts reverse sharply from post-UK inflation correction lows.
• Yen hits new y-t-d trough, but stays afloat of big option barriers seen at 140.00 against Greenback
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0529 vs exp. 7.0515 (prev. 7.0560)
• Turkey asked banks to buy dollar debt to support default swaps, according to Bloomberg.

Fixed Income

• Gilts markedly underperform amidst reversion toward post-UK inflation data lows within a 96.24-95.10 range.
• Bunds and T-notes retreat in sympathy between 133.93-56 and 113-12+/00 bounds, the former irrespective of Q1 German GDP contraction and the latter ahead of US IJC, GDP, Fed speakers and 7 year auction.
• BTPs resilient and only just below par in the wake of well-received Italian end-of-month supply.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are softer intraday, with WTI & Brent July under USD 73.50 and USD 77.50/bbl respectively after soft German data and remarks from Novak ahead of next week’s OPEC+ confab; most recently, the benchmarks are closer to USD 73.00/bbl and USD 77.00/bbl.
• On this, ING writes that “There is a large speculative gross short in the market and they will likely be hesitant to carry too much risk into the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for 4 June”.
• Spot gold is deriving support from the broader macro tone, ex-tech, though is yet to see any real haven bid despite the Fitch update and as the X-date draws closer as updates on progress this morning are more-encouraging, overall.
• Base metals mixed with LME Copper still under USD 8k/T while tin was initially bolstered after the Wa region reiterated its mining ban.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak says do not see new steps at the June 4th OPEC+ meeting and sees Brent crude above USD 80/bbl by year-end.
• Chevron (CVX) launched the sale of tis oil and gas assets in Congo which could raise up to USD 1.5bln, according to Reuters sources.

Debt Ceiling Headlines

• US House Speaker McCarthy said he believes they can get back to a 2022 spending level and has always thought that they could get a deal in a day, while he also stated there should not be any fear in markets and negotiations have made some progress. McCarthy also noted that a number of issues remain unresolved but added that things are better than they were the prior day, while he will stay in Washington DC this weekend and said they could get a debt agreement in principle this weekend, according to Reuters.
• US House Majority Leader Scalise said the weekend recess will begin on Thursday as planned, while debt ceiling talks will continue and lawmakers should be ready to return in case of a deal. Scalise also stated that members will get 24 hours’ notice that they need to return if an agreement is reached and members will get 72 hours to read any debt ceiling bill, according to Reuters.
• US House Republican leadership reportedly feels very good about the state of the debt limit negotiations after several days of little progress, according to Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman.
• US House Democratic leader Jeffries demanded that the length of spending caps match the length of the debt limit increase, according to a Bloomberg reporter.
• Fitch placed the US AAA sovereign rating on Rating Watch Negative which reflects the increased political partisanship that is hindering a resolution to raise or suspend the debt limit, while it still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the X-date but believes risks have risen that the debt limit will not be raised or suspended prior to the X-date. Fitch added that it would expect the US country ceiling to remain at AAA even in the scenario of a debt default and believes a failure to make full and timely payments on debt securities is less likely than reaching the X-date and is a very low probability event, according to Reuters.
• White House said the Fitch report reinforces the need for Congress to quickly pass a bipartisan agreement to avoid a debt default, while the US Treasury said brinkmanship over the debt limit does serious harm to businesses and American families, raises short-term borrowing costs for taxpayers and threatens the credit rating of the US.
• Many within the US House Republican Leadership expect a deal to be finalised by the weekend, via Punchbowl; if a deal came together on Thursday, it would take around two days to convert this into legislative text, implying a final vote as soon as Tuesday. Albeit, Punchbowl writes “it seems very possible that Congress won’t be able to lift the debt limit until next weekend, which is June 3-4”.

Geopolitics

• EU is reportedly discussing sending profits from EUR 196.6bln of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, according to FT.
• Twitter sources noted air raid sirens in Kyiv and that Shahed drones were launched towards northern and southern Ukraine.
• Hundreds of thousands of South Korean artillery rounds are on their way to Ukraine via the US, according to WSJ sources.
• Russian and Belarus Defence Ministers have signed a document on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, via Tass; Russia’s Shoigu says West is waging undeclared war against Russia and Belarus, according to RIA; Defence Minister Shoigu says Russia are to control nuclear weapons in Belarus, according to IFX.
• China Commerce Minister Wang will meet US Commerce Secretary Raimondo, according to Reuters citing the Chinese Commerce Ministry
• Japan Defence Ministry says Japan scrambled jets after spotting Russian information gathering aircrafts over pacific ocean, sea of Japan on Thursday.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: May Initial Jobless Claims, est. 245,000, prior 242,000
  • May Continuing Claims, est. 1.8m, prior 1.8m
• 08:30: 1Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 1.1%, prior 1.1%
  • 1Q Personal Consumption, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%
  • 1Q GDP Price Index, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%
  • 1Q PCE Core QoQ, est. 4.9%, prior 4.9%
• 08:30: April Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.20, prior -0.19
• 10:00: April Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -20.1%, prior -23.3%
• 10:00: April Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 1.0%, prior -5.2%
• 11:00: May Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -9, prior -10

Central Bank Speakers

• 09:50: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at Southwest Virginia Economic Forum
• 10:30: Fed’s Collins Speaks at Community College of Rhode Island

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Given it’s our AI week, it’s appropriate that one of the world’s largest chipmakers Nvidia reported earnings last night, which included an outlook far above expectations thanks to demand for AI processers. They said that revenue in the three months ending July was expected to be $11bn, which was well above analysts’ estimates for $7.18bn, and their shares were up by around 25% in after-hours trading. That’s given a massive boost to other chipmakers too, and futures for the NASDAQ 100 are up by +1.39% this morning. For instance in Tokyo, shares in the equipment supplier Advantest are up +15.58% this morning, whilst the memory-chip maker SK Hynix is up +4.50% in Seoul.

Although AI could prove to be a turning point, elsewhere actually saw markets slump again yesterday as fears ramped up on several fronts. The biggest issue right now is the US debt ceiling, where there’s still no sign of a resolution, even though we might be as little as a week away from the Treasury being unable to pay its bills. On top of that, there was a very strong UK inflation print, which brought back fears that more persistent inflation was still on the cards and central banks would need to keep hiking rates to deal with that. And the other data from the last 24 hours was also pretty weak, such as the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany that saw its biggest monthly decline since September. All this led to another combined bond-equity selloff, with the S&P 500 down -0.73%, whilst yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +5.0bps to 3.74%.

For now at least, the focus is still very much on the debt ceiling, where there are several signs of growing market stress around the X-date. In terms of the latest news, there wasn’t anything particularly promising, with Speaker McCarthy saying to reporters that “there are a number of places where we are still far apart”. He noted later on that he thinks “we have time to get an agreement”, and said it could happen over the weekend, but thus far there haven’t been any tangible signs of progress. After the US close, we then heard from the credit rating agency Fitch that they’d placed the US’ AAA rating on “Rating Watch Negative”. Whilst their base case was that a deal would be reached, they said that the move was down to “increased political partisanship” and reflected growing risks that “the government could begin to miss payments on some of its obligations.”

The lack of any agreement (or even signs of one) has meant that market stress around the X-date has only continued to rise, with front-end T-bills around the debt ceiling now yielding well above 6%. For instance, the bill that matures on June 1 saw its yield surge by +111bps yesterday to 6.84%, and the bill maturing on June 6 is now at 6.68% (+65bps yesterday). The effects of that are increasingly being felt further out the curve as well, with the 3-month yield (+10.1bps) closing at a post-2001 high yesterday of 5.33%.

Those bond losses driven by the debt ceiling were also interacting with a very strong upside surprise in UK inflation earlier in the day, which showed headline CPI at +8.7% in April (vs. +8.2% expected). That was above every economist’s expectation on Bloomberg, as well as the +8.4% projection from the BoE a couple of weeks ago. Furthermore, core CPI rose to its highest level since 1992, at +6.8% (vs. +6.2% expected). The reading added to fears that inflation was becoming entrenched, which led investors to rapidly dial up their expectations for rate hikes from the BoE. For instance, further 25bp hikes are now fully priced in for the next two meetings in June and August, whilst terminal rate pricing has also surged, with the peak rate seen by the December meeting standing 92bps above current levels.

Whilst it was just the UK that had a strong inflation print yesterday, investors responded by dialling up the chances of rate hikes more broadly. And those moves then got further momentum thanks to a speech from Fed Governor Waller, who signalled a clear openness to another hike in June, saying that “I do not support stopping rate hikes unless we get clear evidence that inflation is moving down towards our 2 percent objective.” He framed the options around hiking, skipping, or pausing, suggesting that there was thought being given to the idea of skipping a hike in June ahead of another hike in July. Atlanta Fed President Bostic later reiterated his preference for both a near term pause and for no rate cuts until “well into 2024.” In response, investors dialled up the chances of a hike by July, with futures now putting the chance at 66% this morning, which shows how this is now being seriously considered by market participants. Looking further out, the rate expected by the December meeting also hit a post-SVB high of 4.83% by the close yesterday, and this morning that’s risen further to 4.86%, which just shows how investors are increasingly pricing out the chances of rate cuts this year.

With another upside surprise on inflation and hawkish rhetoric from officials, sovereign bonds sold off on both sides of the Atlantic. UK gilts were at the epicentre of this, with the 2yr gilt yield ending the session up by a massive +23.7bps, taking it up to its highest level since September 27, just after the mini-budget that triggered market turmoil. Likewise, the 10yr yield was up +5.6bps to its highest level since October. In the US, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +5.0bps to 3.74%, which is their highest level since the SVB collapse, and in Europe yields on 10yr bunds (+0.3bps), OATs (+0.9bps) and BTPs (+1.7bps) all moved higher as well. Overnight, 10yr Treasury yields have seen a further +0.8bps increase to 3.75%.

The deteriorating global backdrop also led to a bad day for equities, with the S&P 500 (-0.73%) losing ground for a second day running amidst broad-based declines. Over in Europe the losses were even more severe, with the STOXX 600 (-1.81%) seeing its worst daily performance since March 15 at the height of the market turmoil over Credit Suisse, which took the index back to a 7-week low. On a sectoral basis, the biggest outperformer was energy thanks to a further rise in oil prices, with Brent crude (+1.98%) closing at a 3-week high of $78.36/bbl.

Another event yesterday were the latest Fed minutes from the meeting on May 2-3, but they weren’t a particularly market-moving event. They showed that the committee members were becoming more open to a pause in rate hikes, and it said that “Many participants focused on the need to retain optionality” moving forward. Some participants noted that since the “progress in returning inflation to 2% could continue to be unacceptably slow, additional policy firming would likely be warranted at future meetings.” But the counter was that if there were a medium-term economic slowdown there wouldn’t be the need for further tightening. There was also a note that “that data through March indicated that declines in inflation, particularly for measures of core inflation, had been slower than they had expected”, which correlates to Fed speakers becoming more hawkish in recent weeks.

Overnight in Asia, the selloff has mostly continued, with losses for the Hang Seng (-2.07%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.66%), the CSI 300 (-0.49%), and the KOSPI (-0.52%). The main exception is the Nikkei, which has posted a +0.50% advance. And looking forward, there are signs that markets are now beginning to stabilise, with futures on the S&P 500 up +0.38% this morning, having been helped by the strong Nvidia earnings last night.

On the data side, the main release yesterday aside from the UK CPI print was the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany. That came in at 91.7 in May (vs. 93.0 expected), and marked an end to 6 consecutive monthly gains in that indicator. The expectations reading fell to 88.6 (vs. 91.6 expected), ending a run of 7 consecutive gains, and the current assessment reading fell to 94.8 (vs. 94.7 expected). Whilst the release is only one indicator, it adds to the pattern across Europe in recent months whereby we’re no longer seeing the big upside surprises from Q1, and if anything the releases have been more on the downside of late.

Finally in the political sphere, there was another announcement in the 2024 presidential race yesterday as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis formally confirmed he would be a candidate. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average for the Republican nomination, DeSantis is currently in second place behind former President Trump. However, Trump’s lead has widened significantly over the last couple of months, and Trump currently stands at 54.3%, with DeSantis some way behind on 20.6%, and then former Vice President Pence (who hasn’t yet declared) on 5.3%. The first primaries won’t actually be until 2024, but based on past cycles we can expect the field to come increasingly into view over the summer as the various candidates seek to coalesce public support, raise funds and win key endorsements beforehand.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q1 GDP, pending home sales for April, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for May. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin and Collins, ECB Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Nagel, Villeroy, Centeno and De Cos, along with the BoE’s Haskel.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

NQ outperforms post-NVDA; debt ceiling concerns continue, focus on Fitch – Newsquawk US Market Open

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 06:25 AM

• NQ outperforms post-NVDA, with Europe deriving upside in tandem though capped after German GDP revisions
• Stateside, debt ceiling concerns continue with focus on Fitch though journalist updates since have been somewhat constructive on talks
• USD remains dominant with the DXY above 104.00 with NZD descending further after Orr’s remarks
• EGBs/USTs continue to slip though Gilts remains the standout laggard in a continuation of the UK-CPI move
• Bearish crude action on growth concerns and after Novak’s remarks ahead of the June 4th OPEC
• Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, GDP (2nd), PCE Prices Prelim., CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE’s Haskel, ECB’s Lane, Wunsch, Makhlouf & Vujcic,  Fed’s Barkin & Collins, Supply from the US. Earnings from Ralph Lauren.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are mixed after initial pressure on a negative German GDP revision, DAX 40 -0.2%; though, tech is the standout outperformer post-NVDA, with Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3% as such.
• Stateside, the NQ +1.9% and ES +0.7% are firmer, given Nvidia, while the RTY and YM reside in negative territory amid broader market concern over the debt ceiling and after Fitch’s update.
• Nvidia (NVDA) Q1 23 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.09 (exp. 0.92), revenue 7.19bln (exp. 6.52bln). Q2 23 revenue view 11bln (+/- 2%) (exp. 7.18bln). CFO said that the data centre revenue rise in the quarter is led by growing demand for generative AI and large language models using GPUs. +24% in pre-market trade
• Swiss government to commence consultation on liquidity backstop of all systemically important banks, according to the Finance Ministry; SNB’s Maechler says Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) crisis was one of confidence.
• Click here and here for a recap of the main European updates.
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• Dollar remains dominant as US debt ceiling talks proceed productively, DXY tops 104.000 and probes Fib at 104.090.
• Kiwi descends further as RBNZ Governor Orr underscores guidance indicating no further tightening, NZD/USD hovers under 0.6100.
• Euro undermined by unexpected negative German Q1 GDP print, EUR/USD fades from just above 1.0750 and EUR/GBP retreats through sub-0.8700 10 DMA.
• Sterling rebounds towards 1.2400 vs Buck as Gilts reverse sharply from post-UK inflation correction lows.
• Yen hits new y-t-d trough, but stays afloat of big option barriers seen at 140.00 against Greenback
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0529 vs exp. 7.0515 (prev. 7.0560)
• Turkey asked banks to buy dollar debt to support default swaps, according to Bloomberg.
• Click here for more detail.
• Click here for the notable FX expiries for today’s NY cut.

FIXED INCOME

• Gilts markedly underperform amidst reversion toward post-UK inflation data lows within a 96.24-95.10 range.
• Bunds and T-notes retreat in sympathy between 133.93-56 and 113-12+/00 bounds, the former irrespective of Q1 German GDP contraction and the latter ahead of US IJC, GDP, Fed speakers and 7 year auction.
• BTPs resilient and only just below par in the wake of well-received Italian end-of-month supply.
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• Crude benchmarks are softer intraday, with WTI & Brent July under USD 73.50 and USD 77.50/bbl respectively after soft German data and remarks from Novak ahead of next week’s OPEC+ confab; most recently, the benchmarks are closer to USD 73.00/bbl and USD 77.00/bbl.
• On this, ING writes that “There is a large speculative gross short in the market and they will likely be hesitant to carry too much risk into the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for 4 June”.
• Spot gold is deriving support from the broader macro tone, ex-tech, though is yet to see any real haven bid despite the Fitch update and as the X-date draws closer as updates on progress this morning are more-encouraging, overall.
• Base metals mixed with LME Copper still under USD 8k/T while tin was initially bolstered after the Wa region reiterated its mining ban.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak says do not see new steps at the June 4th OPEC+ meeting and sees Brent crude above USD 80/bbl by year-end.
• Chevron (CVX) launched the sale of tis oil and gas assets in Congo which could raise up to USD 1.5bln, according to Reuters sources.
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB’s Vasle said the ECB must still raise rates further and inflation is becoming increasingly stubborn.
• Riksbank’s Thedeen says the SEKs level is worrying.
• UK’s Ofgem sets the energy price cap at GBP 2074 for dual-fuel households (prev. 3280), for July-September; the cap represents a reduction QQ and a reduction in how much customers will pay on their bills.
• Shipping activity returns to normal in Suez Canal after a malfunctioning ship was towed away, according to Two Canal.

DATA RECAP

• German GDP Detailed QQ SA (Q1) -0.3% vs Exp. 0.00% (Prev. 0.00%) – German economy suffered a winter recession. The persistence of high price increases continued to be a burden on the German economy at the start of the year. This was particularly reflected in household final consumption expenditure.
• German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jun) -24.2 vs. Exp. -24.0 (Prev. -25.7, Rev. -25.8)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES/DEBT CEILING

• Fed’s Bostic (non-voter) said Fed officials will let the data guide them on rate moves and the Fed doesn’t want to be locked into a particular rate move. Bostic expects to see labour market stress as inflation eases to the goal and said failure to get inflation to 2% is more problematic for the economy, while he added the best-case scenario is that the Fed will not consider a rate cut until well into 2024.
• US House Speaker McCarthy said he believes they can get back to a 2022 spending level and has always thought that they could get a deal in a day, while he also stated there should not be any fear in markets and negotiations have made some progress. McCarthy also noted that a number of issues remain unresolved but added that things are better than they were the prior day, while he will stay in Washington DC this weekend and said they could get a debt agreement in principle this weekend, according to Reuters.
• US House Majority Leader Scalise said the weekend recess will begin on Thursday as planned, while debt ceiling talks will continue and lawmakers should be ready to return in case of a deal. Scalise also stated that members will get 24 hours’ notice that they need to return if an agreement is reached and members will get 72 hours to read any debt ceiling bill, according to Reuters.
• US House Republican leadership reportedly feels very good about the state of the debt limit negotiations after several days of little progress, according to Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman.
• US House Democratic leader Jeffries demanded that the length of spending caps match the length of the debt limit increase, according to a Bloomberg reporter.
• Fitch placed the US AAA sovereign rating on Rating Watch Negative which reflects the increased political partisanship that is hindering a resolution to raise or suspend the debt limit, while it still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the X-date but believes risks have risen that the debt limit will not be raised or suspended prior to the X-date. Fitch added that it would expect the US country ceiling to remain at AAA even in the scenario of a debt default and believes a failure to make full and timely payments on debt securities is less likely than reaching the X-date and is a very low probability event, according to Reuters.
• White House said the Fitch report reinforces the need for Congress to quickly pass a bipartisan agreement to avoid a debt default, while the US Treasury said brinkmanship over the debt limit does serious harm to businesses and American families, raises short-term borrowing costs for taxpayers and threatens the credit rating of the US.
• Many within the US House Republican Leadership expect a deal to be finalised by the weekend, via Punchbowl; if a deal came together on Thursday, it would take around two days to convert this into legislative text, implying a final vote as soon as Tuesday. Albeit, Punchbowl writes “it seems very possible that Congress won’t be able to lift the debt limit until next weekend, which is June 3-4”.
• Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

GEOPOLITICS

• EU is reportedly discussing sending profits from EUR 196.6bln of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, according to FT.
• Twitter sources noted air raid sirens in Kyiv and that Shahed drones were launched towards northern and southern Ukraine.
• Hundreds of thousands of South Korean artillery rounds are on their way to Ukraine via the US, according to WSJ sources.
• Russian and Belarus Defence Ministers have signed a document on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, via Tass; Russia’s Shoigu says West is waging undeclared war against Russia and Belarus, according to RIA; Defence Minister Shoigu says Russia are to control nuclear weapons in Belarus, according to IFX.
• China Commerce Minister Wang will meet US Commerce Secretary Raimondo, according to Reuters citing the Chinese Commerce Ministry
• Japan Defence Ministry says Japan scrambled jets after spotting Russian information gathering aircrafts over pacific ocean, sea of Japan on Thursday.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is lower but holding above the USD 26k mark despite briefly dropping below the figure in early trade, with the USD capping upside and broader marks still focused on the debt ceiling as we near the US long weekend.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly lower with the region cautious after the losses on Wall St owing to debt ceiling fears and after the FOMC Minutes showed officials were split on support for more hikes, while Fitch placed the US AAA sovereign rating on Rating Watch Negative despite several optimistic comments from House Speaker McCarthy.
• ASX 200 weakened as the commodity-related sectors led the broad declines across nearly all industries and with sentiment also dampened as households are set to pay hundreds of dollars more each year after the energy regulator approved an increase of up to 25% in electricity bills.
• Nikkei 225 was kept afloat but with the upside capped in the absence of any major positive drivers.
• KOSPI was subdued after the BoK rate decision in which the central bank kept rates unchanged as expected, although 6 out of the 7 board members saw the need to keep the door open for one more rate hike.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured with underperformance in Hong Kong after the benchmark index slipped beneath the 19,000 level, while the mainland was lacklustre amid recent US-China frictions.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese companies reportedly switch auditors to avoid US delisting risk, according to FT.
• USTR Tai is reportedly to meet with Taiwan’s minister in charge of the Office of Trade Negotiations.
• BoK maintained its base rate at 3.5%, as expected, through a unanimous decision although six board members saw the need to keep the door open for one more rate hike. BoK statement noted economic growth is to remain weak for some time and inflation will likely fall considerably before rebounding slightly for the rest of the year, while it stated uncertainty is high over the Chinese economy and IT sector, as well as lowered its 2023 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% from 1.6%. Furthermore, BoK Governor Rhee said core inflation is not easing as much as board members had expected and that board members share the opinion that it is premature to talk about a rate cut this year with uncertainty higher over regarding whether inflation will approach the 2% target before year-end.
• RBNZ Governor Orr said rates are restrictive and well above neutral, while he added that economic growth and inflation are weaker than expected although they can change the assessment if needed as new data emerges, according to Reuters.
• BoJ Governor Ueda says we are beginning to see good signs in the economy but still some distance to stably and sustainably hit inflation target; BoJ will patiently sustain easy monetary policy.
• Japan raises May overall economic view for first time since July 2022 and says economy is recovering moderately.

DATA RECAP

• Singapore GDP QQ (Q1 F) -1.6% vs Exp. -2.5% (prev. -2.7%); YY (Q1 F) 0.4% vs Exp. 0.2% (prev. 0.1%)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.49 PTS OR 0.11%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 369.01 POINTS OR 1.93%      /The Nikkei closed UP 118.45 OR 0.39%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.03 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.0699 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN  TO 7.0827 /Oil DOWN TO 72.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 76.89 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL  RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

END

3 CHINA /

CHINA//WANDA/REAL ESTATE

This is an important commentary as China’s real estate market is on the brink of collapse.  Remember that real estate is around 70% of China’s GDP

(EpochTimes)

World’s Largest Real Estate Market On The Brink Of Collapse: Experts

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24, 2023 – 10:50 PM

Authored by Kathleen Li and Ellen Wan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Recent statistics from China’s central bank show that home buyers’ enthusiasm has fallen drastically. Despite price cuts and incentives, the world’s largest housing market continues to slump, and China’s banking sector is taking a hit on two fronts, as both defaults and prepayments rise. Meanwhile, China’s developers are starting to show the strain, with real estate giant Wanda Group making headlines this week as the value of its dollar bonds plunged.A building under construction is seen in Shanghai on Sept. 24, 2021. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

In early 2023, the Chinese real estate market had a short-lived rebound as local governments across the country issued policies to bail out the failing real estate sector, according to the China Index Academy, a real estate research institute. By the end of April, the mortgage rate for first-home buyers in more than 40 cities had been lowered to below 4 percent.

However, after an optimistic outlook in March, April’s sales failed to live up to analysts’ expectations.

According to the April 2023 Financial Statistics Report released by China’s central bank on May 11, mortgages decreased by 241.1 billion yuan ($33.8 billion) in April. Among those, medium- and long-term household loans, mostly mortgages, decreased by 115.6 billion yuan ($16.2 billion), while short-term mortgages decreased by 125.5 billion yuan ($17.6 billion).

Public statistics show that sales of previously owned homes in China’s largest cities all showed double-digit declines in April. Among them, Beijing fell 37.3 percent; Hangzhou fell 32.7 percent; Shanghai fell 26.71 percent; and Nanjing fell 13 percent. The worst decline was in Hefei, which plunged by 40 percent.

CCP Puts the Brakes on Price Cuts

The weak housing market forced developers to cut prices. However, two real estate developers in Kunshan, China were penalized by Chinese regulators for cutting prices by a large margin, so much so, according to regulators, that they “disrupted the normal order of the real estate market and caused social instability.”

Japan-based current affairs commentator Qu Kai told The Epoch Times on May 13: “The reason why the [Chinese] regime won’t let real estate developers lower prices is very simple. The chain reaction caused by price cuts will instantly burst the bubble of China’s property market, causing a series of economic crises that would be difficult for the CCP to manage.”

Qu believes that the current real estate crisis will sooner or later affect banks and eventually will impact the regime as a whole, as the CCP will be unable to maintain its revenue through the property market.

On the Brink

China is the world’s largest housing market. According to estimates from prominent economist Ren Zeping’s “China Housing Market Value Report 2021,” the country’s housing market value was $62.6 trillion in 2020, compared to $33.6 trillion in the United States, $10.8 trillion in Japan, and $31.5 trillion in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany combined. Ren is a former economist at China’s Development Research Center.

According to Ren’s “China Wealth Report 2022,” the market value of China’s housing market reached 476 trillion yuan (about $73.8 trillion) in 2021. This represents a 17.9 percent increase in total market value compared to 2020.

When considering the ratio of housing market value to GDP, China’s housing market value in 2020 was already 414 percent, higher than Japan’s 391 percent before its housing bubble burst in the 1990s.

As China’s economy weakens and the housing market shrinks, the number of foreclosed homes in China climbed to 606,000 in 2022, an increase of 35.7 percent year-over-year. At the same time, many cities have seen a huge increase in the number of second-handed real estate listings for sale.

Risk Will Be Passed to Banks

“The consequences of real estate declines and residential mortgage defaults will eventually be passed on to the banks,” Fang Qi, a veteran Chinese finance professional living in the UK, explained to The Epoch Times on May 13.

Fang said that for banks, there are two risk associated with residential mortgages. Both situations incur losses and directly weaken banks’ assets.

The first situation arises when homeowners default on mortgage payments. Among the reasons for rising defaults in China is an ongoing mortgage boycott, with many homeowners refusing to make payments on unfinished homes. An August 2022 New York Times article estimates that the boycott may affect as many as 4 percent of outstanding mortgages.

The second is when homeowners pay off their mortgages early, as many Chinese homeowners—saddled with higher rates—are doing. Mortgage holders are tapping their personal savings or taking out cheap loans under stimulus programs intended for big-ticket consumer purchases or for starting new businesses.

Analysts estimate that nearly $700 billion of mortgages—close to one-eighth China’s outstanding total—had been prepaid since early 2022 when banks started to lower borrowing rates.

Under normal conditions, this would free up cash for banks to finance other loans. However, given the current situation in which consumers are being very cautious about spending, it’s actually bad news for banks. Not only are they losing money on existing mortgages, there is a dearth of new loans to finance.

The result is tightened financing for real estate companies, Fang warned: “The banks’ tightening of finance to the real estate sector will further plunge them into chaos, thus causing a vicious cycle that will affect the banks’ asset quality and profitability. If the risk spreads to a certain extent, banks will incur a large number of bad debts, leading to bankruptcy.”

Real Estate Developers Feel the Strain

Amid China’s housing market downturn, many real estate developers are in turmoil. Chinese real estate giant KWG Property released an announcement (pdf) on April 28 saying it had failed to pay 212 million yuan ($31 million) of principal due on that date. The delinquency triggered another 31.2 billion yuan of debt (about $4.36 billion) becoming payable on demand. Two weeks later, the developer defaulted (pdf) on a $119 million redemption payment.

Even Wanda Group, one of China’s oldest and largest real estate giants, is rumored to be at risk for a debt meltdown. Yields on two U.S. dollar bonds sold by its subsidiary Wanda Properties Global rose above 35 percent in April. Market analysts called the surge a sign that borrowers were having trouble raising new funds, exacerbating the risk of debt crisis and default.

In late April, Fitch Ratings placed Wanda Commercial and Wanda Commercial Properties (Hong Kong) on its negative watch list.

Wanda Commercial made headlines with more troubling news on Tuesday as a $400 million dollar bond due for repayment in July fell to about 70 cents, “on the brink of distressed territory,” Bloomberg reported, under the headline “Real Estate Distress Deepens Again as China Woes Spread.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

CHINA/USA

Microsoft claims that Chinese Communist Party hackers have compromised critical USA cyper infrastructure across several industries.

(zerohedge)

Microsoft Says CCP Hackers Compromised ‘Critical’ US Infrastructure As DHS Warns Of ‘Grave Threat’

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24, 2023 – 05:10 PM

Microsoft on Wednesday warned that a Chinese state-sponsored hacking group – “Volt Typhoon” has compromised “critical” US cyber infrastructure across several industries – including manufacturing, construction, maritime, government, information technology and education.

The group, which has operated since 2021, is apparently working to disrupt “critical communications infrastructure between the United States and Asia,” as well as gather intelligence, in order to weaken efforts during “future crises.”

Infrastructure in nearly every critical sector has been impacted, Microsoft said, including the communications, transport, and maritime industries. Government organizations were also targeted. –CNBC

According to the advisory from Microsoft – which has “directly notified targeted or compromised customers,” the attack is apparently ongoing. The company has urged impacted customers to “close or change credentials for all compromised accounts.”

As Bloomberg notes, “Guam, a US island territory located 1,600 miles (about 2,600 kilometers) east of Manila, has become an increasingly important military and strategic hub as tensions with China ratchet up, including the possibility that it might use its military to enforce its claim to the self-ruled island of Taiwan.”

Volt Typhoon initially gained access to the targeted organizations through internet-facing devices manufactured by Fortinet Inc., a Sunnyvale, California-based cybersecurity company, according to Microsoft, adding it was still investigating how the hackers were able to access the equipment. The hackers used whatever privileges they could gain from the Fortinet devices to extract more credentials to authenticate to other devices on the networks, Microsoft said. There, the hackers intended “to perform espionage and maintain access without being detected for as long as possible,” Microsoft added. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile, the Department of Homeland Security has warned that the CCP presents a “grave threat” to the US homeland – and is actively working to undermine US security and damage America’s economic standing, according to a senior official

More via The Epoch Times,

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which rules China as a single-party state, seeks to leverage the whole of the Chinese nation against the United States, said Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Iranga Kahangama.

“Beijing presents an especially grave threat to the homeland,” Kahangama said during a May 23 hearing of the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence.

“We must match our adversaries’ determination through a whole-of-government response, with DHS playing a leading role on the front lines of that defense every day.”

To that end, Kahangama said that the CCP regime “operates globally” and is “using all instruments of national power to target the United States” in its quest for global hegemony.

The United States, in response, must mobilize a whole-of-nation defense against such aggression, he said. The methods employed by the regime to undermine U.S. influence are just too varied to warrant any other response.

“[China] continues to employ both overt and clandestine methods to undercut U.S. national security and economic security interests, such as stealing advanced and sensitive technologies using traditional and non-traditional collectors, amplifying narratives that sow doubt in U.S. institutions, and messaging against U.S. politicians it deems hostile,” Kahangama said.

CCP Is ‘Trying to Undermine’ US

Subcommittee Chair August Pfluger (R-Texas) painted the growing competition between the CCP and the United States as one between democratic norms and values and rampant authoritarianism.

The CCP’s overarching goal, he said, was not merely to do better economically than the United States, but to destroy the very foundations of the republic as a whole, and to dismantle the international system built upon those foundations.

“This conflict is not with the individual citizens of [China],” Pfluger said.

“This conflict is with the CCP, an authoritarian regime that commits genocide against its own people, censors free speech across the globe, and aims to end democracy as we know it,” he said.

To that end, Pfluger provided the example of the recently closed Manhattan-based CCP police station, which operated as an extension of the regime’s ministry of public security, and said that the CCP sought to infiltrate and influence state and local governments to compel the United States into adopting policies that favored China from the ground up.

Subcommittee Ranking Member Seth Magaziner (D-R.I.) concurred, saying that the CCP was systematically destroying the United States’ economic advantage through illicit means.

“Each year, the CCP’s economic espionage against American business costs between $225–600 billion,” Magaziner said.

“It is indisputable … that the CCP is actively trying to undermine the economy and security of the United States,” Magaziner said. “More alarming, the intellectual property stolen by the CCP [does] not just include commercial products, designs, and trademarks for cheap knockoff and counterfeit products. It include[s] blueprints for fighter jets, helicopters, missiles, pharmaceuticals, and large-scale technologies.”

China Is the ‘Greatest Long-Term Threat’

FBI Deputy Assistant Director Jill Murphy testified that such illicit activities were part of a broader push by authoritarian powers including China, Russia, and Iran, which were cooperating with one another to erode the liberal system of governance espoused by democratic nations.

“We see nations such as China, Russia, and Iran becoming more aggressive and more capable in their nefarious activity than ever before,” Murphy said.

Read more here…

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS

FINLAND

As power went to zero cents, the Finnish nuclear plant lowered output.

amazing.

(zerohedge)

Finnish Nuclear Plant Throttles Output After Electricity Prices “Become Too Cheap”

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 02:45 AM

As we detailed in early May, the transition from testing to regular output last month saw Finland’s first nuclear power-plant drive electricity prices dramatically lower.

As yle reports, the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor in Eurajoki, southwest Finland, started regular electricity production in mid-April, about 14 years behind schedule.

Since then prices for power in Finland have continued to plunge as the efficiency of the plant flooded the grid with ‘new’ energy.

So much in fact that early on Wednesday of last week, the market price for electricity dropped below zero cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) and for hours after that the price was only 0.3 cents per kWh at its highest, according to the country’s grid operator, Fingrid.

That was unacceptable and prompted the plant’s owner, Teollisuuden Voima (TVO) to significantly cut back its output…

“Electricity production must also be profitable for nuclear power plants, and when the price is particularly low, there may be situations where output is limited,” TVO communications manager, Johanna Aho, said.

According to Aho, cutting back on nuclear power production due to excessively low electricity prices is very rare, but not unheard of.

Janne Kauppi, an energy markets advisor at Finnish Energy, agreed with that sentiment.

“There haven’t been many situations where nuclear power output has been regulated specifically because of low prices,” Kauppi explained.“When prices go negative on the electricity market, basically anyone who can adjust their production will do it, so that they don’t have to pay for their own production,” Kauppi noted.

The Finnish example is a testament to how nuclear can play a part in solving the current energy crisis, with consumers still paying sky-high fees for energy in many European countries.

However, the hypocrisy is of course that when power prices were extremely high in 2022, hurting consumers – it was all Russia’s fault; but now that prices are plummeting, operators can’t have that and withdraw supply to hurt consumers.

Do you see a pattern here?

END

GERMANY

Germany has woken up: the EU’s green new deal is not for them

(zerohedge)

Germany Is Turning Against The EU’s Green New Deal, Common Sense To The Forefront

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Fresh on the heels of a sensible request by France to pause new green regulations comes an even stronger pushback in Germany…

The Spectator asks Is Germany turning against the EU’s Green Deal?

Last week it was President Macron who was rowing back on green measures. In a speech he asserted that Europe has, for now, gone far enough – if it introduces any more regulations without the rest of the world following suit then it will put investment at risk and harm the economy. This week, the European People’s Party – a centre right grouping which includes the German Christian Democrats, the party of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen – seems to be joining in.

The party is reported to be considering withdrawing its support for the European Commission’s Green Deal. That is the set of proposals which includes, for example, an EU-wide target for eliminating net carbon emissions by 2050. Whilst 11 EU countries have already set themselves legally-binding targets to reach net zero by 2050 (or 2045 in the case of Germany and Sweden), if the Green Deal were to go there would be no obligation on the other member states to follow suit.

Germany now seems to be taking over from France as the seedbed of opposition towards zero carbon policies, not least because it has more severe policies – and because its self-imposed, earlier target of reaching net zero by 2045 is increasingly looking out of kilter with reality. 

last week a new party, ‘Burger in Wut’ (Citizens in Anger or BiW) took 9.6 per cent of the vote in state elections in Bremen. As with the Dutch Farmers-Citizen’s Movement (BoerburgerBeweging, or BBB) which came top of the country’s regional elections in March in protest at the government’s efforts to close down farms in order to meet nitrate targets, it was the speed of BiW’s rise which caught many unawares.

An Excellent Green Energy Proposal From France, President Biden Should Pay Attention

Last week I commented on An Excellent Green Energy Proposal From France.

I am not accustomed to seeing good proposals from France, but here goes: Macron Calls for ‘Regulatory Break’ in Green Laws to Help Industry 

A pause is good but a rollback of Biden-sponsored madness would be much better. 

President Biden should pay attention. But is he even awake? 

Biden’s Dirty Dish Deal

Will dishwashers in the US even work? That seemingly silly question is anything but silly.

Please consider the The Federal Dirty Dish Rule

Last week the Energy Department dropped a sweeping proposal for “efficiency” mandates on dishwashers. Did you enjoy last night’s spaghetti, still crusted on the plate? Now you can taste it twice.

The proposal requires manufacturers to slash water use by a third, limiting machines to 3.2 gallons per cycle, down from the current federal limit of five gallons. New appliances must simultaneously cut estimated annual energy usage by nearly 30%.

Machines can only meet much higher efficiency standards by recirculating water in longer cycles, meaning run times of two or three hours. Yet if the dishes aren’t clean, owners run them again, undermining the argument about conservation.

The Energy Department plan gives manufacturers only until 2027 to produce the miracle of costlier washers that do a worse job. There are also new regulations for electric motors used in manufacturing, as well as beverage vending machines.

In recent months the Energy Department has proposed or finalized punishing new standards for ovens, microwaves, refrigerators and laundry machines (get ready for even moldier clothing). These come on top of rules for furnaces, air conditioners, and lightbulbs.

Pay More For Less Performance

Everything Biden does adds inflation pressures. 

Note The Inflation Reduction Act Price Jumps From $385 Billion to Over $1 Trillion

Expect more of the same when Biden tries to impose a “just transition” to EVs.

And if you missed it, please see Hoot of the Day: The UAW Demands a “Just Transition” to Electric Vehicles

A backlash is coming. It started in France and Germany. The sooner a green backlash starts in the US the better.

end

FRANCE

Idiotic France bans short haul domestic flights due to carbon footprints.

(Brooks/ReMix)

France Bans Short-Haul Domestic Flights Despite Widespread Criticism

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Travelers will now be forced to use rail alternatives as France seeks to reduce its carbon footprint…

France’s ban on short-haul domestic flights when there is a viable train alternative came into effect on Tuesday, as the French government seeks to reduce the country’s carbon emissions.

The law had been in the works for over two years following the passing of a 2021 climate law which had initially moved to prohibit any domestic flight under four hours when passengers could instead take the train.

However, several reviews of the legislation following widespread criticism reduced this to a duration of two and a half hours.

The move will directly affect three major air routes from Paris to Lyon, Nantes, and Bordeaux.

Laurent Donceel, interim head of industry group Airlines for Europe (A4E), told AFP that governments should support “real and significant solutions” to airline emissions, rather than “symbolic bans.”

Other critics claimed the legislation falls foul of EU competition laws, a point reviewed by the European Commission in December last year. The EU executive gave the green light for the radical climate laws on the proviso that “the negative impacts on European citizens and connectivity of any restriction of traffic rights is offset by the availability of affordable, convenient and more sustainable alternative transport modes.”

Following the go-ahead from Brussels, France’s Transport Minister Clément Beaune called the move a “major step forward,” adding: “I am proud that France is a pioneer in this area.”

The move comes as the French government continues to debate how to reduce its carbon footprint, and this week, the country’s richest were targeted in a proposed one-off green tax to help France succeed in its environmental transition.

The proposal was put to the French Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne via a report authored by Jean Pisani-Ferry, a chief economic adviser of Emmanuel Macron back in 2017.

It called for France to reclaim €150 billion from the country’s richest 10 percent in the form of a green wealth tax in order to meet its net zero obligations by 2050, justifying the move with the fact that rich people typically have a larger carbon footprint.

Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire publicly dismissed the proposal on Tuesday, however much of the cabinet remained tight-lipped, including the prime minister herself.

end

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

This is interesting:  3 arrested Russian scientists accused of handing hypersonic missile secrets to China

(zerohedge)

3 Arrested Russian Scientists Accused Of Handing Hypersonic Missile Secrets To China

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24, 2023 – 09:50 PM

A week ago, just as Ukraine was claiming to have shot down Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, three top Russian scientists who’ve reportedly worked on the country’s hypersonic program were arrested on suspicion of treason.

The Kremlin had said the three face “very serious accusations”. They were identified as Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk and Valery Zvegintsev – and worked at the Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk. Shiplyuk was actually director of the institute, thus the highly visible case has sent shockwaves through the Russian ruling establishment and academic community.A Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ALBM being carried by a Mikoyan MiG-31K in 2018. Kremlin Photo

The arrests were under mysterious circumstances, given the Kremlin didn’t spell out the details of the allegations against them, and immediately set off rare public outcry from other scientists angered over their detention. 

When pressed on the nature and specifics of the case, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov only said that security services are being extra watchful concerning potential cases of “betrayal of the motherland” at this sensitive time of the war in Ukraine. 

Now, on Wednesday, Reuters in an exclusive has cited sources saying the scientists are accused of betraying classified hypersonic program secrets to China. Director Shiplyuk in particular “is suspected of handing over classified material at a scientific conference in China in 2017, the sources said,” according to the report.

“The 56-year-old maintains his innocence and insists the information in question wasn’t classified and was freely available online, according to the people, whom Reuters has chosen not to identify to safeguard their security.”

He and his supporters in the academic and scientific community in Russia say that the information in question which may have been shared with Chinese counterparts was not at all secret. Per Reuters: 

“He is convinced of the fact that the information was not secret, and of his own innocence,” one of the people said.

The nature of the allegations against the ITAM director, who was arrested last August, has not been previously reported. The Chinese connection would make Shiplyuk the latest in a string of Russian scientists who have been arrested in recent years for allegedly betraying secrets to Beijing.

Indeed such recent arrests of top officials have had a chilling effect inside Russia, particularly among circles which are critical of recent Kremlin decision-making regarding the Ukraine war and tactics utilized. 

Did an information breach make the “unstoppable” hypersonic missiles more vulnerable to shootdown?

The Reuters report has further speculated on just which top Chines officials may be on the other side of the suspected breach of classified technology and information: 

ITAM, sited at the Academgorodok science campus near the city of Novosibirsk, says on its website that it is registered as a part of Russia’s military-industrial complex. The institute has had extensive international links including contacts with companies, universities and research centres across the world, according to a 2020 online document that outlined its work.

Among the institutions listed was the China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center (CARDC), whose website includes several posts celebrating experimental breakthroughs relating to fighter jets and hypersonic missiles.

The CARDC site names the center’s director as Wang Xunnian. According to two official Chinese local government websites, Wang is a major general in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

One Russian colleague of the detained scientists has complained that handing off information to other allied international researchers should be seen as relatively benign. “It’s a long path. Just doing the basic research does not provide you with a missile,” the sources said.

Given recent updated laws in the wake of the Ukraine conflict, a conviction on treason in Russia could bring anywhere from 20 years to life in prison.

end

UKRAINE//RUSSIA//USA//GERMANY

Russia reasserts that it is the USA that is behind the drone attack on the Kremlin

(zerohedge)

White House Rejects Kremlin Statement US “Undoubtedly” Behind Drone Attack On Kremlin

THURSDAY, MAY 04, 2023 – 10:15 AM

The Kremlin issued a formal accusation against the United States for helping Ukraine conduct yesterday’s ‘assassination attempt’ on President Vladimir Putin via drone strike. 

“Attempts to disown this, both in Kyiv and in Washington, are, of course, absolutely ridiculous. We know very well that decisions about such actions, about such terrorist attacks, are made not in Kyiv but in Washington,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.Via EPATwo drones had been caught on film flying into the Moscow Kremlin complex, within which President Putin has several offices, and federal business is conducted. Peskov stressed that the US was “undoubtedly” behind the incident. 

According to Peskov’s full statements in Reuters:

He said the United States was “undoubtedly” behind the incident and added – again without stating evidence – that Washington often selected both the targets for Ukraine to attack, and the means to attack them.

“This is also often dictated from across the ocean … In Washington they must clearly understand that we know this,” Peskov said.

While there were no casualties from Wednesday’s drone strike against the Kremlin building, and with Russia saying it was a near-miss but that its anti-air measures deflected the strike, there does appear to be light damage – including burn marks – to a Kremlin dome. 

The White House denial of involvement was firm, quick, and brief. “White House national security spokesman John Kirby told MSNBC television the Russian claims were false, and that Washington does not encourage or enable Ukraine to strike outside its borders,” Reuters writes.

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE  ISSUES/

GLOBAL ISSUES

The BRICS Has Overtaken The G7 In Global GDP – Silk Road Briefing

Robert Hryniak	12:46 PM (2 minutes ago)
to

While this article is dated 2 months ago, it gives a good view into the direction of where the BRICS are headed and the sheer delusion of the so called Rules based order dictated by American exceptionalism failing on a world stage.

America lost itself by forgetting that the business of America is business and not military adventures to enrich a few while allowing globalism to hollow out the homeland of adequate resources to sustain a leadership role. It has not helped that the rise of Neocons aligned with the military establishment added to the corruption of State to give homage to criminal activity exploiting the world under the banner of American foreign policy. If you ask average Americans they could care less about what goes on in the rest of the world turning more to what happens around them in daily life. American isolationism stems from Americans being America centric and not wanting to adventure the world in a military fashion. It is why since Vietnam proxy armies are used as are mass bombing and land campaigns against poorly equipped armies of nations who stood out as primitive opponents against a vast array of air superiority assets. Just think back to “shock and awe” in Iraq.

Today, this same misguided and lost mindset of characters wages war against Russia to attempt to see Russia broken up and to feast on some 75Trillion in in ground wealth to continue the parade. Sadly or righteously for this band, Russia over took America in military technology long ago and is well ahead and perhaps cannot be caught being several generations ahead in things like missile technology. The gap across the military sphere of assets is too great to be caught up with by a financially incapable status and corruption which destroys effective use of capital in research or manufacture. Nor does a will exist when thievery and devious thinking rules.

Today’s Silk Roads while started by China as a Chinese initiative to have dominance has created a juggernaut that does not bend to singular dominance. Having experience American boots, the BRICS and the 80 + countries wanting in are throwing off the cost of using Federal Reserve Dollars in trade to have individual freedom based on national efforts and not central discretion of one party. This is simply decentralization at work which is death to centralized control. This is what the fight is about. And oddly the proxy conflict in Ukraine has strengthened Russia while weakening AMerica and NATO while demonstrating the sad state of Western technology. Think about the up to date Patriot missile complex supplied to Kiev in hopes of a demonstrated media event to be dashed by a single missile. No new systems will be supplied to avoid future embarrassment. Only old systems like F16’s will be trotted out for failure. And there are no new funds for thirsty eyes of manufacturers as wallets are empty.

In today’s theatre of play, western audiences are led by failed leadership where in most cases the majority of the public has no faith in governments or the direction being taken as it is contrary to national or individual gain. It serves only to attempt to hold on to power quickly leaving as other non 7 nations stay their course. With so many nations wanting the BRICS alternative over the past, it is clear that the G7 has already failed in offering any real alternatives worthy of consideration, which tells you what the future trend is. This failure to understand coupled with corruption on a mass scale and lack of moral high ground ( think foreign bio labs etc.) will lead to collapse of relevance as the West stumbles and economies contract.

Nothing collapses overnight but what is quite clear is that the decline of the Western economies in world trade will continue until there is awaking to cause a change and what nations will look like is likely to be quite different than what they are now because standards of living will decline along with social unrest. With this will be a political shift out of the mess that this brings.

https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/03/27/the-brics-has-overtaken-the-g7-in-global-gdp/

end

Vaccine issues/COVID 19 issues

DR PANDA:

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Yes we did and do have a pandemic, but not of COVID, it is a pandemic of mRNA technology; this mRNA technology is the most devastating aspect of the fraud pandemic; those involved are criminals

they gave the most sick evil gift to humanity, mRNA technology in the COVID vaccine is the most catastrophic aspect of the vaccine (with the LNP, nano-tech); mRNA technology is the pandemic

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 25end Is there a link between Autoimmune skin disorders and Malone, Kariko, Weissman et al.’s COVID mRNA technology based gene vaccination (Pfizer & Moderna) & other platforms? Yes, study indicates a linkmeta-analysis highlights the association between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and de novo induction or aggravation of inflammatory and autoimmune skin diseases.DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 25 SHARE SOURCE:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddg.15114endDid bacterial pneumonia kill most persons with advanced COVID infection/disease? Seems YES, Bacterial infections may even exceed death rates from viral infection itself; evidence of no cytokine storm?study shows importance of preventing & aggressively treating secondary bacterial pneumonia in critical ill patients with severe pneumonia; ventilators KILLED most via ventilator associated pneumoniaDR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 25 SHARE SOURCE:https://news.feinberg.northwestern.edu/2023/05/05/secondary-bacterial-pneumonia-drove-many-covid-19-deaths/end

14-year-old Yulia Hicks was denied a kidney transplant (by Doctors at Duke University) as she was not vaccinated, FOX covered it extensively; Berenson now reports he has word she is getting a kidney

Thank God and this is a blessing and The Lord granted her favor and mercy

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 25

SHARE

Can the Malone, Kariko, Weissman et al. mRNA technology based gene vaccine (Pfizer) cause Multifocal Necrotizing Encephalitis & Myocarditis? Yes, Mörz provides evidence of myocarditis & vasculitis

In the heart, signs of chronic cardiomyopathy as well as mild acute lympho-histiocytic myocarditis and vasculitis were present. Also signs of aspiration pneumonia and systemic arteriosclerosis

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 24

SHARE

‘a 76-year-old man with Parkinson’s disease (PD) who died three weeks after receiving his third COVID-19 vaccination.

The patient was first vaccinated in May 2021 with the ChAdOx1 nCov-19 vector vaccine, followed by two doses of the Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in July and December 2021.

END

SLAY NEWS

he latest reports from Slay News

NYC to Monitor Household Food Consumption for ‘Carbon Emissions’New York City has announced disturbing new measures to tackle so-called “carbon emissions” by monitoring the food consumption of the city’s households.READ MORE

Elon Musk Is Going After ‘Fox’s Territory’: ‘If You’re Rupert Murdoch, This Is a Scary Time’Rupert Murdoch is being warned that Elon Musk is planning to replace Fox News and other corporate media networks by making Twitter the new default for news reporting.READ MORE

After Pushing Russia Hoax, Hillary Clinton Says Trump Winning in 2024 Would ‘End Democracy in America’Hillary Clinton misled the American people by fabricating the Russia Hoax to smear President Donald Trump in the eyes of voters.READ MORE

Black Lives Matter on Fast Track to Bankruptcy, Still Giving Millions to Leaders and Family MembersThe Black Lives Matter organization is on the fast track to bankruptcy, financial records have revealed.READ MORE

Kellyanne Conway’s Daughter Claudia Breaks Silence after Joining Playboy as Bunny: ‘When I Was 15-16, I Was Exploited by Media’Kellyanne Conway’s teenage daughter Claudia has joined Playboy as a “Bunny” on the magazine’s online competitor to Only Fans.READ MORE

Tucker Carlson Issues Warning to Corporate Media: ‘The Old System Is Collapsing’Former Fox News star Tucker Carlson has put America’s corporate media on notice by warning that “the old system is collapsing.”READ MORE

Democrat Gov Declares ‘State of Emergency’ for Public Education over GOP’s Parental Rights GainsDemocratic North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper declared the state’s public education system to be in a state of emergency following GOP legislative gains regarding school choice and parental rights, during a Monday special address.READ MORE

Germany Investigating Ukraine for Destroying Nord Stream PipelineGerman investigators are reportedly pursuing leads that suggest Ukraine was responsible for the underwater explosions that destroyed Russia’s four Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea last year.READ MORE

Tucker Carlson Threatens Legal Action against Group Pushing His 2024 RunTucker Carlson has issued a legal threat against a political action committee (PAC) that was launched to push the former Fox News star into running for president in 2024.READ MORE

Tim Scott Fires Back at Joy Behar after She Lectures Him about Being Black: ‘My Life Disproves the Lies of the Radical Left’GOP Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) has fired back at “The View” hosts after they made racially charged attacks against him.READ MORE

GOP Rep Moves to Fine Adam Schiff $16 Million for ‘Egregious Abuse of Trust’Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) has hit Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) where it hurts today.READ MORE

Tucker Carlson Ready to Bring Down Fox News by Leaking ‘Damaging Secrets’ amid Contract StalemateTucker Carlson and his team have reached their limit with Fox News as exit negotiations have stalled.READ MORE

MTG Demands Release of Epstein’s Client List, Investigation into His Connections to ClintonsRepublican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has demanded that Jeffrey Epstein’s full client list is released to the public.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

ATEST NEWS:

Target to move Pride merch to back of stores to avoid ‘Bud Light situation’: reportRead more…The Shocking Career Event That Could Wreck Your MarriageRead more…NEW: Trump’s Lawyers Request Meeting with AG Garland Over Unfair Treatment by Special CounselRead more…Debt Limit Default Could Cost California More Than 840,000 Jobs: AnalystsRead more…BREAKING: Judge Schedules Trump Trial in the Middle of Primaries, Months Before ElectionRead more…Here’s What Happens When You Close a Credit CardRead more…Disturbing video shows machete-wielding NYC professor chase Post…Read more…Republicans call into question Janet Yellen’s debt ceiling deadlineRead more…

…

VACCINE IMPACT

The Financial Fall of Budweiser Shows the Hidden Power that the American Consumer Still Has Over Wall Street Billionaires

May 24, 2023 4:33 pm

Anheuser-Busch, the largest beer company in the world, is learning the hard way that the American consumer still has a hidden power against corporate America, as their company value has lost $15.7 billion since April 1st, when they hired transgender-influencer Dylan Mulvaney to promote their Bud Light beer, which sent sales diving all across the U.S. This has been truly historical, and I have to say I have never seen anything like this in my lifetime. More powerful than protests, even the “Occupy Wall Street” protests of 2011, and certainly more powerful than voting for politicians, the American consumer’s most powerful voice for protest and change, is how they decide to spend their money, by voting in the only place that really matters, the marketplace. And let’s be very clear here and give credit where credit is due. This is NOT simply a “conservative” protest, but this is a protest by AMERICANS that crosses political divides. And that is the main reason why a Wall Street corporate giant is reeling today, and trying to backpedal as fast as it can. Americans are rejecting the transgender culture, from trans “women” biological males invading sports and completely annihilating every female sports record on the books, to children committing suicide after receiving transgender medical procedures, to trans “women” biological male prisoners being incarcerated in women prisons and jails where rape and sexual abuse is skyrocketing, the majority of Americans are saying “this has gone too far.” And in doing so by voting with their money, they are discovering the hidden power of the American consumer to fight back against the Wall Street billionaires and bankers.

Read More…

---

“Nobody Imagined it Would go on This Long”: Bud Light Sales Continue to Plummet over Mulvaney Backlash

May 24, 2023 6:47 pm

The controversy, now nearing its third month, has turned off a broader customer group than just those who characterize themselves as conservatives. Sales of Bud Light continue to plummet, reflecting ongoing backlash to the brand’s decision to hire transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney as a spokesperson. According to data cited by the beverage industry trade publication Beer Business Daily, sales volumes of Bud Light for the week ending May 13 sank 28.4%, extending a downward trend from the 27.7% decline seen the week before. AB InBev shares have fallen more than 10% since Mulvaney’s social media post went live. In a note to clients published Tuesday, JPMorgan analysts said that even if the decline in Bud Light sales stabilizes, “We believe there is a subset [of] American consumers who will not drink Bud Light for the foreseeable future.” “Nobody imagined it would go on this long,” Schuhmacher said. He continued: “It seems random — it struck a nerve. I’ve never seen anything to compare it to, in all of the [consumer packaged goods] industry. It’s a real shock.”

Read More…

---

MICHAEL EVERY

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//

Grinding To A Halt?

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 12:25 PM

By Bas van Geffen, CFA, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Grinding to a halt

A cargo ship has grounded in the Suez Canal early this morning. Though the Xin Hai Tong 23 was re-floated relatively quickly, it certainly brings back the memory of the 2021 stranding of the Ever Given and the knock-on effects this had on global supply chains. This reminder of supply chain fragility is not just relevant for routes through the Suez Canal. The Strait of Malacca remains a key weakness to potential geopolitical tensions, and the reliability of the Panama Canal is being affected by climate change. Last month, the Panama Canal was already forced to lower the maximum depth of ships passing through, as drought hits the water levels. In other words, fewer goods can be transported at a time.

Aside from the reminder that we should no longer rely on hyper-efficient, yet easily disrupted, supply chains, the grounding of the Xin Hai Tong 23 also provides a great metaphor for the overnight news flow.

First of all, updated estimates for German Q1 GDP show that the economy did not just grind to a halt in the first quarter of the year; the statistics office now estimates that GDP shrunk by -0.3% q/q. This means that Germany did, after all, experience a winter recession as the industrial motor suffered from the gas crisis. The 0.3pp downward adjustment means that, barring upside revisions to other countries’ GDP estimates, Eurozone growth has probably stalled in Q1.

Unsurprisingly, inflation has hit consumers’ willingness and ability to spend, at least in volume terms: household consumption expenditure was down 1.2% in Q1. And while the economy will probably re-float, the monetary tightening cycle should prevent it from picking up much steam. The one bright spot, perhaps, was the strong investment spending. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment rose by 3.2% q/q. While that may be a drop in the ocean when one looks at the sheer amount of investments needed to ramp up Europe’s domestic production capacity in order to reduce the continent’s international dependencies, the number could’ve been far worse in the face of ECB policy tightening. So, for now, the ECB may actually be quite pleased to see this division in the German GDP breakdown: lower consumer demand should hopefully lead to lower inflation, while the continued fixed investments should alleviate supply constraints in the longer term. That said, much of this consumer slowdown is attributable to the sharp decline in households’ disposable incomes, whereas much of the effects of higher rates are probably yet to be seen. The past two Bank Lending Surveys have pointed at a marked slowdown in demand for loans – usually heralding a drop in investments.

Turning to the US, the debt limit talks continue the pattern of stranding and being re-floated. Ironically, President Biden now sees himself very much stuck in the debt ceiling talks he vowed to avoid. For Fitch the current brinkmanship was sufficient to put the United States’ AAA rating on negative watch. Although the rating agency “still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the x-date,” they see increased risks of missed payments, and the debt limit illustrates the failure to “meaningfully tackle medium-term fiscal challenges.”

This adds to the Fed’s challenges. The minutes already revealed a considerable divergence of opinions regarding possibly pausing the hiking cycle. For now, a hold in June remains a pausebility, but whether this would also be the de facto end of the hiking cycle depends on the amount of credit tightening that is still expected to materialize.

Moreover, the Fed now has to worry about potential fallout to markets and the US economy, should the debt ceiling lead to broader market turmoil – particularly in the Treasury market that underpins the global financial system. Should this happen, a number of policymakers suggested that the central bank should be ready to re-float the financial market. This would most likely be done through the central bank’s liquidity tools, the minutes suggested.  It’s unclear what these measures would entail exactly. However, during the debt limit standoffs in 2011 and 2013, the FOMC discussed various options, including repurchases to inject liquidity, or even buying or swapping Treasury securities that had technically defaulted – although Powell expressed strong disapproval of such extreme measures.

At the same time, central banks certainly cannot breathe easily. The shock-increase in gauges of underlying inflation in the UK made that point all too clear. Yesterday we already stressed the upside risk that this poses for the Bank of England’s policy trajectory, and sterling markets are certainly pricing for this. Yet, despite the unexpectedly high core and services inflation rates, Governor Bailey gave a much more measured first reaction to the data release. He refused to speculate where the April inflation data leave the Bank relative to its latest forecasts.

And returning to the topic of grinding halts, Ron DeSantis (R-Fla) put his name in the hat for the 2024 elections. He is considered to be the most serious challenger to Donald Trump for the Republican nomination to date. Unfortunately for Mr. DeSantis, the launch of his presidential campaign started with a number of technical hiccups. The live feed on Twitter crashed repeatedly before the event started, and the stream froze several times during the programme. While that might be an indication that his bid drew a large online audience, Twitter hasn’t exactly been a stable platform since Musk took over.

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

No new production cuts lowers oil prices

(zerohedge)

Oil Tumbles After Russia’s Novak Signals No New Production Cut From OPEC+

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 10:30 AM

It appears that OPEC’s credibility is about to take a big hit.

As we said earlier, following comments from the Saudi energy minister that oil shorts will be “ouching” soon, the market interpreted this as a sign that OPEC+ would proceed with another output cut following the unexpected move in early April which briefly sent oil prices sharply higher. The alternative would be another painful blow to OPEC’s credibility, which has emerged as a kind of jawboning “central bank” for the commodity.

But overnight, oil bulls were served a cold shower by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak who said he expected no new steps from OPEC+ when it meets in Vienna on June 4, the state-owned news agency RIA reported.

As Bloomberg’s Grant Smith notes, the contradictory signals on oil policy from OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia suggest the group probably won’t agree new measures next week. That’ll do little to improve souring sentiment in crude markets, and sure enough oil has plunged on Thursday, erasing all recent losses.

Russia, which needs oil revenues to fund its war on Ukraine and which the west is gladly funding as Biden has made clear his reelection chances will collapse if oil prices soar if Russian oil supply is suddenly halted, has so far struggled to implement production cutbacks it announced months ago. Agreeing to even deeper curbs at this point might be more than Moscow can countenance.

It’s possible that the Saudis and fellow Gulf exporters could decide to move without Russian support, but given that they’ve already shouldered much of the burden for supporting oil markets this year, they may feel reluctant to do more.

The rhetorical schism between Riyadh and Moscow is a reprise of positions taken by the two sides ever since they formed OPEC+ just over six years ago, with the Saudis ready for action and Russia advocating a more moderate stance.

Despite dousing expectations for more production cuts, Novak said he expected Brent price to be above $80 a barrel by the end of the year. He said current prices of $75-76 reflected the market’s assessment of the global macroeconomic situation. Novak also said that high U.S. interest rates and a slower than expected Chinese economic recovery were holding back oil prices from rising further.

“This will be the first face-to-face meeting in six months, we are waiting, as usual, for an assessment of the situation in the market,” Novak was quoted as saying by Izvestia newspaper.

“But I don’t think that there will be any new steps, because just a month ago certain decisions were made regarding the voluntary reduction of oil production by some countries due to the fact that we saw the slow pace of global economic recovery.”

He also said he hoped that oil demand will increase in the summer.

“But I repeat once again: we do not have the task of inflating prices – there is the task of balancing in order to ensure the interests of both producers and consumers.”

Sending another signal that no action might be required from OPEC+ at its next meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that energy prices were approaching “economically justified” levels.

Putin said this month that production cuts implemented by OPEC+ were required to maintain a certain price level, contradicting assurances from other leaders of the group that it was not seeking to manage the market in that way.

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty over whether the United States will avoid a debt default weighed against the prospect of further OPEC+ production cuts.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

SOUTH AFRICA

Major disruptions in Durban caused by thieves damaging the rail infrastructure causing huge damage to trade.  The country is already in disarray due to blackouts.  No wonder the rand is collapsing in value

(zerohedge)

Major Disruption Hits Top South African Container Port As Economic Crisis Worsens

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 05:45 AM

The economic crisis in South Africa worsened this year, with rolling power blackouts contributing to much of the problem. This week, the situation was exacerbated when organized crime gangs targeted the rail infrastructure connecting the nation’s wealthiest province with a top container port, causing widespread disruptions in trade. Taking all these factors into account, the African National Congress, a social-democratic political party in the country, warned that the country could become a “failed state.” 

The ongoing power blackout story in South Africa is nothing new for readers (read: South Africans Without Electricity For Nine Hours A Day Amid “Ginormous” Blackouts). But the economic crisis worsened again this week for another reason: “theft, vandalism, and rail damage” by gangs that left a 428-mile rail line from the Port of Durban to Gauteng province operating at just 25% capacity, according to Bloomberg. 

“For the past week, there have been a total of 39 security-related incidents targeting critical areas on the mainline resulting in the closure of the line,” Transnet SOC Ltd., the state-owned entity that runs the line, said in a letter to customers seen by Bloomberg. 

Armed gangs are attacking South Africa’s state-owned infrastructure, disrupting electricity-generating plants to freight-rail lines. If the container-rail line between Durban and Gauteng isn’t resolved promptly, this might dent trade with other nations. The security incidents might force some companies to do business elsewhere. 

Transnet said at least 58 trains are stuck on the rail line or in staging yards due to disruptions. The rail company said some vandalized equipment had been repaired or replaced, but reopening the line fully appears to be a monumental task. 

That may be why African National Congress secretary general Fikile Mbalula warned power cuts and chaos are contributing to a major crisis. 

“If certain things are not resolved, we will become a failed state, but we are not journeying towards that direction,” Mbalula warned in an interview with BBC HARDtalk’s Stephen Sackur.

The economic crisis has sent the official unemployment rate in the country to 33%, the highest in the world. A resolution to the chaos is nowhere in sight. 

END

CANADA

Canada has a huge loss of money in the trucking industry and this weak market is identical to the USA

(zerohedge)

Credit Loss Provisions Soar 300%: Weak Truck Market Finally Shows Up In Major Fleet Lender’s Data

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 11:45 AM

By John Kingston of FreightWaves,

The weak trucking market finally has caught up to the quarterly report of Canada’s BMO, a major lender to fleets.

In its quarterly earnings report, BMO breaks out the financial performance of its various lending sectors. Transportation is its own sector, and BMO officials have said about 90% of that book of business is trucking. The data is considered a strong indicator of the health of fleets both big and small as the BMO book of business is at least 10,000 customers. 

Even as reports from the road and in the earnings report of publicly traded companies weakened over the last six to nine months, the BMO earnings report showed some level of deterioration but nothing dramatic at the former Bank of Montreal.

That ended with the latest report, issued Wednesday. In the most dramatic number reported for the second quarter of fiscal 2023, which ended March 31, provisions for credit losses in the quarter rose to CA$18 million from $6 million in the prior quarter. Provisions in the fourth quarter of 2022 were just $2 million, and BMO for the five quarters prior to that posted negative provisions. That meant BMO took more dollars out of the provisions for credit losses than it put in, fueled by the strong performance of the trucking market. 

BMO had negative provisions of $7 million for all of fiscal 2022, a sign of strength despite the “negative” term. But the last two quarters combined mean that in 2023, that figure for provisions is already up to positive $24 million for six months.

Provisions for credit losses result in a negative impact on bank profitability. Allowances for credit provisions are an estimate of potential losses but do not have an impact on income. They are defined as a “contra asset.”

Allowances also showed a significant increase in the second quarter. In the transportation group, they rose to $17 million from $10 million. It was the highest number since the fourth quarter of 2021, when they were also $17 million. They are still well below the $30 million and more figures recorded in eight consecutive quarters between 2019 and 2021. 

To highlight how significant the most recent quarter was in the transportation book at BMO, even when it posted a $38 million provision for credit losses in the second quarter of 2020, during the heart of the pandemic, that quarterly figure rose only from $29 million, representing a 31% increase. By contrast, the jump to $18 million in the latest quarter from $6 million just three months earlier marks a 3X jump. 

Write-offs were up 250% to $10 million. BMO posted a three-quarter run of write-offs of just $2 million, $1 million and $2 million in the final quarter of 2021 through the second quarter of 2022 and had not been at $10 million or more since the second quarter of 2021. The $10 million figure for the second quarter represents a 250% increase from the first quarter.

The BMO data also suggests that trucking companies were hitting their lines of credit to a greater degree in the second quarter. Even in a market in which trucking companies are disappearing, gross loans and acceptances at BMO rose to $14.6 billion, up from $13.7 billion. The second-quarter number was just slightly less than the final quarter of fiscal 2022 and still well above the $13.4 billion recorded in the second quarter of 2020, when companies in all industries were being advised to pull down as much as they could from their credit lines given liquidity concerns created by the pandemic. 

Impaired loans also rose. Gross impaired loans climbed to $91 million from $82 million. But for perspective, gross impaired loans at BMO — defined as loans in which it is not likely the bank can collect the full principal and interest — were $105 million as recently as the third quarter of 2021 and peaked at $189 million in the second and third quarters of 2020.

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS 

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0727 DOWN 0.0029

USA/ YEN 139.61  DOWN 0.315  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2356  DOWN    0.0013

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3603 UP .0013 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 3.49 PTS OR 0.11% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 369.01 PTS OR 1.93%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.03%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 369.01 PTS OR 1.93   %

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.49 PTS OR 0.11%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.03% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 118.45 PTS OR 0.39% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1961.55

silver:$23.02

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 104.01 UP 21 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s close.

THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.271%  UP 6  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.426 % UP 2  AND  1//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.582 UP 7  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.379 UP 5  points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.516  UP 5  BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0714 DOWN  0.0042 or  42  basis points 

USA/Japan: 139,95 UP 0.655  OR YEN DOWN 66 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2311 DOWN .0058 OR 58   BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN  .0046 OR 46 BASIS pts  to 1.3636

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN.(7.0789)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.0934

TURKISH LIRA:  19.94 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.426…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.795% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   4.015 UP 5  IN BASIS POINTS

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.4210% UP 13  in basis points.

 USA dollar index, 104.23 UP 42  in basis points   ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

Your  12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 56.23 points or  0.74%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 48.33 PTS OR 0.31%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 24.19 PTS OR 0.33%

Spain IBEX DOWN 47.40 PTS OR  0.52%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 116.54 PTS OR 0.44%

WTI Oil price 71.68     12: EST

Brent Oil:  75.74     12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   AT:  80.17/ ROUBLE  DOWN 0 AND   6//100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.519 UP 6 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4210 UP 26 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.07722 DOWN 0.0034   OR 34 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2319 DOWN   .0051 or  51 basis pts 

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.4210% UP 17 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 140.092 UP 0.198 //YEN DOWN 20 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3638  UP .0048 CDN dollar, DOWN 48  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 71.94

Brent OIL:  76.15

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 11 BASIS pts to 3.833% 

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2  BASIS PTS to 3.993% 

USA 2 YR BOND:  UP 19  PTS AT 4.633%  

USA dollar index: 104.19 UP 39 BASIS POINTS  

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.94 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP)

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  80.16  DOWN 0   AND  1/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 35.27 PTS OR 0.11% 

NASDAQ 100 UP 334.05 PTS OR 2.46%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.03 DOWN 1.00 PTS (4.19)%

GLD: $180.20 DOWN 1.75 OR 0.96%

SLV/ $20.86 DOWN  0.36 OR 1.42%

end

USA AFFAIRS

1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

NVDA Adds Record Market Cap; Everything Else Dumps As Debt-Ceiling Idiocy Continues

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 04:00 PM

Nvidia… that is all.

Yes there was macro data: GDP second look improved, jobless claims shitshow due to MS fraud revisions, pending home sales disappointed, Kansas City Fed better than expected; and some Fed Speak (Boston’s Collins sees a ‘pause’ – like everyone else), but really this was all about Jensen Huang (who’s personal; wealth jumped over $8 billion today).

From the open, the day was all about one stock – NVDA, soaring 25% or so and adding just under $200 billion in market cap – that is 2 Intels! – and from the Oct 2022 lows, NVDA has added $665 billion in market cap…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the largest single-day market cap gain for any stock in US equity market history…

NVDA added more market cap today than the total market cap of 472 of 500 S&P companies, including:

• Cisco (197.3BN)
• Thermo Fisher ($197BN)
• Accenture ($190BN)
• AMD ($174BN)
• T-Mobile ($168BN)
• Adobe ($168BN)
• Nike ($166BN)
• Disney ($166BN)
• Netflix ($162BN)

Bear in mind that it’s unclear how many jobs AI will have to replace to make the “$1 trillion data center” investment viable but Goldman has estimated 300 million middle/upper class jobs in US/Europe will be made obsolete… but at least your pension will be higher before you face permanent ejection from the workforce.

But, as the following Advance/Decline line for the Nasdaq shows, NVDA was practically alone…

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, Nasdaq exploded higher (obviously), Small Caps lagged notably with The Dow unch and the S&P gaining helped by NVDA durr…

Notably 0-DTE traders were hell-bent on getting some upside traction going in the S&P with three big impulses during the day…

Source: SpotGamma

Small Caps suffered as banks were sold again ahead of tonight’s Fed bailout data…

The equal-weight S&P 500 ended the day unch, while the cap-weight was up around 1%…

For some context with regard the concentration in markets, this is the seasonally worst relative performance of the equal-weight S&P to the cap-weight S&P in at least 30 years…

Source: Bloomberg

The divergence in performance today between Small Caps and Nasdaq was the largest since Nov 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were dumped hard today, because why make 4 or 5% risk-free when you can pile into a tech stock at 175x Trailing P/E? The short-end was clubbed like a baby seal relative to the long-end today (2Y +15bps, 30Y +1.5bps) and the 2Y is ugly on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield rose back above 4.50%, back ast its highest since the middle of the SVB bank collapse crisis…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s10s) flattened significantly, to its most inverted since the SVB crisis lows…

Source: Bloomberg

As Nomura’s Charlie McElligott noted earlier, the cross-market is real-time pricing-in debt deal optimism (@Punchbowl reporting “Rs expect the compromise will come together sometime in the next few days”) at the same time that the regional banks deposit-flight story remains (temporarily) quiet – which means that the “left tail” of the distribution being that  “~150bps – 250bps emergency cut” type of calamity scenario is seeing its market implied probability crater… all while “higher for longer” (even holding terminal through end of year) picks up Delta, with the debt-deal compromise being expected in the next few days, allowing the Fed to get back to the economic task at hand.

The market can then too price-in the now very-well socialized concerns with regard to the back half of year “liquidity drain” which is set to accelerate powerfully both in US and Europe, as outlined recently where again, the danger feeds into “higher interest rates” but this time, largely from the risk of

1) TGA rebuild / T-Bill “supply shock” / “reserve drain” which can then bleed-into a “crowding-out” across the risk-curve…

…especially when occurring in conjunction with

2) aforementioned “higher for longer” Fed,

3) QT,

4) ongoing Deposit flight into MMF / RRP as additional siphoning of Reserves,

5) consumer and corporate drawdown on remaining pandemic “excess savings,”

6) expiration of student loan moratorium, and

7) a monster European TLTRO repayment in Jun and 8) APP reinvestment cessation in July

And that is all very evident in the dramatically hawkish trend in STIRs…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the 9th day of the last 11 to its highest since 3/17/23 as flight cash continues…

Source: Bloomberg

Japanese Yen fell to 140/USD for the first time since 11/23/22…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was puked back to two-month lows…

Oil tumbled after Russia poured cold water on OPEC+ production cut “ouchy” threat…

The “confusing triangle” continues its trilemma-y ways…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that the last time Nasdaq was this high relative to small caps was the peak of the dotcom bubble…

Source: Bloomberg

..probably nothing, right?

b) THIS MORNING TRADING // debt ceiling reports

EARLY morning

Dun and Bradstreet joins Fitch to put the uSA on negative watch due to debt ceiling debacle

(zerohedge)

DBRS Joins Fitch Placing United States’ AAA Rating On Watch Negative

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 07:55 AM

With its CDS trading like an emerging market, it is likely no surprise that Fitch Ratings has placed the United States’ ‘AAA’ Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) on Rating Watch Negative.

CDS is trading like USA is anything but AAA-rated…

The T-Bill curve is not buying the calm picture being painted by Washington with the June 1st Bill yielding 7.00% today…

Fitch Key Rating Drivers:

Debt Ceiling Brinkmanship: The Rating Watch Negative reflects increased political partisanship that is hindering reaching a resolution to raise or suspend the debt limit despite the fast-approaching x date (when the U.S. Treasury exhausts its cash position and capacity for extraordinary measures without incurring new debt). Fitch still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the x-date. However, we believe risks have risen that the debt limit will not be raised or suspended before the x-date and consequently that the government could begin to miss payments on some of its obligations. The brinkmanship over the debt ceiling, failure of the U.S. authorities to meaningfully tackle medium-term fiscal challenges that will lead to rising budget deficits and a growing debt burden signal downside risks to U.S. creditworthiness.

Debt Limit Reached: The U.S. reached its $31.4 trillion debt limit on Jan. 19, 2023, and the Treasury began taking extraordinary measures in order to avoid breaching the ceiling. The Treasury has stated that these extraordinary measures could be exhausted as early as June 1, 2023. The cash balance of the Treasury reached USD76.5 billion as of May 23 and sizeable payments are due June 1-2, meaning that the x-date could arrive as the Treasury indicated and before an agreement is reached or finalized with votes in the House and Senate.

X-Date Approaching: The failure to reach a deal to raise or suspend the debt limit by the x-date would be a negative signal of the broader governance and willingness of the U.S. to honor its obligations in a timely fashion, which would be unlikely to be consistent with a ‘AAA’ rating, in Fitch’s view. Prioritization of debt securities over other due payments after the x-date would avoid a default. Similarly, avoiding default by non-conventional means such as minting a trillion-dollar coin or invoking the 14th amendment is unlikely to be consistent with a ‘AAA’ rating and could also be subject to legal challenges.

Debt Default Rating Implications: We believe that failing to make full and timely payments on debt securities is less likely than reaching the x-date and is a very low probability event. Such a failure would be a debt default under Fitch’s sovereign rating criteria and would lead us to downgrade the sovereign IDR to Restricted Default (RD). Affected debt securities would be downgraded to ‘D’. Additionally, other LT debt securities with payments due within the following 30 days would likely be downgraded to ‘CCC’, and ST treasury bills maturing within the following 30 days would likely be downgraded to ‘C’.

Potential Post-Default Ratings: Other debt securities with payments due beyond 30 days would likely be downgraded to the expected post-default rating of the IDR. A key consideration in determining the U.S. post-default rating would be Fitch’s Sovereign Rating Model (SRM) – the details of which are in the public domain. The SRM output for the U.S. stands at ‘AA+’. The model applies a two-notch reduction for a sovereign that has recently defaulted, suggesting that Fitch’s model-implied post-default rating would be ‘AA-‘. The final rating could be adjusted lower or higher via the Qualitative Overlay as per our criteria. Fitch would expect any debt default to be relatively short-lived. However, a more protracted default scenario could have more severe implications for the country’s post-default ratings.

Country Ceiling to Remain at ‘AAA’: Fitch would expect the U.S country ceiling to remain at ‘AAA’ even in the scenario of a debt default. The U.S. dollar is the preeminent world’s reserve currency, and we view the risk of exchange and capital controls as de minimis.

Governance Challenges: Governance is a weakness relative to ‘AAA’ rated peers, and the future direction of the rating is sensitive to the direction it takes. The contested 2020 presidential election, brinkmanship over the debt limit to advance political agendas, and failure to reach consensus on the country’s fiscal challenges are recent signs of the deterioration in governance. Additionally, the absence of a medium-term fiscal framework and a complex budgeting process has contributed to the failure to reverse successive debt increases caused by economic shocks and other fiscal accommodations. Political partisanship has brought about repeated debt-limit brinkmanship and led to near-default episodes that could erode confidence in the government’s repayment capacity.

Weakening Fiscal Outturns: Weaker-than-expected tax receipts and higher interest rates have led public finances to modestly underperform Fitch’s expectations at the last review. Fitch now forecasts a general government deficit at 6.5% of GDP in 2023 and 6.9% of GDP in 2024, up from 5.5% in 2022. State and local governments overall surpluses in 2021-22 have begun to move to deficits, which accounts for part of the expected general government deterioration. A rising interest burden and growing spending on entitlements over the coming decade will keep the deficits at above 7% of GDP on average. Between 2023 and 2033 the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) May 2023 baseline includes a 2.2pp of GDP rise in spending on interest, healthcare and social security that is linked to demographics, a rising interest burden and healthcare costs.

High and Rising Public Debt Burden: General government debt fell to 112.5% of GDP at year-end 2022 (compared to 36.1% for the ‘AAA’ median), a decline from its 2020 pandemic peak of 122.3%. However, the ratio remains over 12 pp above pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Fitch forecasts debt to increase to 117% by end-2024. Debt dynamics under the baseline Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assumptions project that the ratio of federal debt held by the public to GDP will approach 119% within a decade under the current policy setting, a rise of over 20 pp. Interest rates have risen significantly over the last year with the 10-year Treasury yield at close to 3.7% (compared to 2.8% a year ago).

Exceptional Strengths Support Ratings: The size of the country’s economy, high GDP per capita and dynamic business environment support the U.S. ratings. The U.S. dollar is the world’s preeminent reserve currency, which gives the government extraordinary financing flexibility.

ESG – Governance: The U.S. has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of ‘5’ Political Stability and Rights and ‘5[+]’ for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. The U.S. has a high WBGI ranking at 79, reflecting its well-established rights for participation in the political process, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption.

This morning, DBRS Morningstar followed Fitch and placed the United States of America’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings of AAA Under Review with Negative Implications. In addition, DBRS Morningstar placed the United States of America’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings of R-1 (high) Under Review with Negative Implications.

KEY RATING CONSIDERATIONS

The Under Review with Negative Implications reflects the risk of Congress failing to increase or suspend the debt ceiling in a timely manner. If Congress does not act, the U.S. federal government will not be able to pay all of its obligations. The precise timing of when the federal government will exhaust available cash and extraordinary measures, the so-called X-date, is somewhat unclear. However, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated her warning on May 22 that the X-date could come as early as June 1. Judging from the latest data on daily net inflows into the Treasury General Account, we believe it is reasonable to assume the X-date could arrive within weeks if not days.

While we still expect Congress to raise the debt ceiling before Treasury runs out of available resources, there is a risk of Congressional inaction as the X-date approaches. DBRS Morningstar would consider any missed payment of interest or principal as a default. In such a scenario, the relevant U.S. Issuer Ratings would be downgraded to “Selective Default.”

Alternatively, the U.S. Treasury may prioritize debt payments following the X-date in order to avoid a default. However, prioritizing debts payments for a meaningful period of time would likely lead to a rating action, as we assess that such a strategy would have a highly negative impact on the economy and could quickly run into legal and operational challenges. Similar challenges could arise if the Administration instructs the Treasury to ignore the debt limit or bypasses the debt limit through some other strategy. In addition, failure to lift the ceiling in a timely manner could indicate that political polarization is affecting the quality and predictability of U.S. policymaking.

Even if Congress ends up increasing the debt ceiling prior to the X-date, the prospect of repeated debt ceiling standoffs in a polarized political environment may lead DBRS Morningstar to judge that U.S. credit risk has increased to a level that is no longer consistent with a AAA rating.

While the debt ceiling impasse poses a potential threat to the United States’ AAA rating, the U.S. has exceptional strengths that support the credit profile. The U.S. economy is very large in scale, accounting for one-quarter of global output. The economy is highly resilient to shocks, given its diversification across industry and geography, its flexible labor market, and its global leadership position in terms of research and innovation. U.S. financial markets and the U.S. dollar are at the center of world trade and capital flows, which provides the U.S. with an unusually high degree of financing flexibility. In addition, the country benefits from well-established democratic institutions, a strong legal system, and transparent governance. While a late debt payment could erode the reputation of the dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency and U.S. government bonds as global safe-haven assets, the fundamental credit strengths of the U.S. would likely continue to support the ratings.

One potential outcome of the current negotiations is that the next debt ceiling discussion could be pushed out beyond next year’s election. Future congresses could overhaul the debt ceiling to reduce the threat of default or eliminate it entirely, although any action on this front would likely require bipartisanship to overcome a filibuster in the Senate.

The Review period will focus on whether Congress lifts the debt ceiling in a timely manner, how the U.S. Treasury responds if Congress is late to increase the debt ceiling, the economic and financial fallout if the federal government fails to pay its obligations on time, and the likelihood of recurring debt standoffs in the near term.

RATING DRIVERS

The rating could be confirmed at AAA if Congress lifts the debt ceiling in a timely manner, and risks stemming from debt ceiling brinksmanship in the near term are deemed to be relatively low.

The ratings could be downgraded if: 1) the U.S. Treasury fails to pay all of its debt obligations on time, 2) the federal government builds up material non-interest arrears, or 3) there is a high likelihood of repeated debt ceiling standoffs in a climate of heightened political polarization.

Paging Mrs. Yellen…

Who could have seen this coming?

END

Debt Talks Remain Stalled With X-Date Fast Approaching

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 09:30 AM

With the dreaded “X-Date” fast approaching, House Republicans and the White House remain at an impasse over how to raise the debt ceiling.House Speaker Kevin McCarthy

Republicans are telegraphing compromise – with Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) saying on Thursday that ‘not everyone will be happy with the debt deal,’ but that he expects a compromise will emerge sometime in the next few days. According to Punchbowl News, GOP leadership feels confident they can win the support of the majority of the House Republican Conference for the eventual package.

Piper Sandler’s Donald Schneider is projecting a new X-Date, with the Treasury having as little as $10 billion on hand by June 2 and $2 billion by June 9. For reference, Treasury typically never goes below $25 billion on hand, “especially with 0 extraordinary measures left, as would be the case in early June.”

That said, this can all blow up this afternoon as “there could be another dozen twists and turns between now and the announcement of any agreement. The last yard is always the toughest one,” according to Punchbowl.

The House Democratic Caucus is livid over the state of negotiations, with many rank-and-file Democrats feeling that they’re about to be asked to vote on a package that will satisfy Republican demands, while getting very little of what they want in return.

“I think time is starting to run out,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), adding “I think Wall Street should be weighing in.”

The White House — especially President Joe Biden — will have a lot of work to do to get this across the finish line. Just ask the House Democratic leadership, which has been fielding many of the complaints from members. One senior House Democratic aide suggested that Biden must try to sell lawmakers on the package by saying he — and the country — need to put the debt-limit mess behind them.

This will be a big test for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Minority Whip Katherine Clark. They’ll have to deliver dozens of Democratic votes for Biden on a deal that benefits the president’s reelection campaign perhaps more than anyone else. -Punchbowl

Several Democrats have told the outlet that they question the leadership at the White House in terms of how the entire negotiation has been handled.

Republicans are hitting back. Rep. Matt Gaetz (FL) said this week that his conservative colleagues “don’t feel like we should negotiate with our hostage,” adding “the one-person motion to vacate has given us the best version of Speaker McCarthy.”

Meanwhile, Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) says that a debt-limit deal without substantial spending reforms will “not face smooth sailing in the Senate.”

“I will use every procedural tool at my disposal to impede a debt-ceiling deal that doesn’t contain substantial spending and budgetary reforms. I fear things are moving in that direction,” Lee tweeted, which Rep. Chip Roy amplified.

Meanwhile, treasuries are reacting to the constant cries of progress (despite their likely walkback in a few hours), with a bear-flattening move extending as 2-year yields rise as much as 13bp on the day, topping 4.5%, after GOP Chairman of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs Michael McCaul declaring that a deal is ‘close,’ and they are down to the details now.

• Futures volumes surge into the move with around 60,000 10-year note contracts trading over 3-minute window as the futures hit session lows at 112-22; US 10-year yields around 3.785%, remain cheaper on the day by 4.5bp
• Front-end of the curve leads days losses with 2-year yields trading around 4.50% — 2s10s spread flatter by 7bp on the day
• Fed-dated OIS bid in early session with around 14bp of rate hike premium priced into the June policy meeting, up from 12bp Wednesday close and a combined 27bp priced for June and July meetings combined -Bloomberg

To expedite the issue once an agreement is reached, McCarthy refuses to waive a rule that allows members 72 hours to review the text of the agreement. As Punchbowl surmises, it’s possible that a deal won’t emerge until next weekend, June 3-4. After that, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will need to scramble to get any package to the floor before a default.

end

END

AFTERNOON

House Eyes Tuesday Debt Ceiling Vote As Biden Scores Win On Defense Spending

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 03:31 PM

Update (1645ET): Assuming a deal is struck over the weekend, Tuesday appears to be the most likely date for a House vote to raise the debt ceiling, which would allow for a speedy turnaround in the Senate, before moving to President Biden’s desk before a June 1 deadline, Bloomberg reports.

Meanwhile, the Biden team scored a point on defense spending, which Republicans wanted to expand. Instead, GOP negotiators are settling on a smaller increase sought by Joe Biden in his budget proposal, people familiar with the talks said.

The emerging consensus on a defense number marks a significant victory for Democrats, who have been trying to bat back Republican efforts to augment Biden’s proposed $886.3 billion proposal for national security next year, which is already a 3.3% increase over current levels.

The Pentagon would receive $842 billion of that request, according to the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because no final agreement has yet been concluded. -Bloomberg

“I know people would like to spend more,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told reporters on Thursday, adding this is “where we are.”

*  *  *

Update (1530ET): A new note from Piper Sandler suggests that President Biden and the Democrats are losing the debt ceiling debate, and that Republicans have the upper hand in negotiations that “increasingly look like it will roughly freeze defense spending and slightly cut domestic spending below this year’s levels.”

“Any deal is likely to be opposed by the most conservative Republicans and the most progressive Democrats,” the note reads. “We have always thought between 40% and 70% of House Republicans would support a deal, depending on its components, and roughly half of Democrats.”

“It’s increasingly looking like a deal will be more on GOP terms and win the support of most Republicans.”

Piper also thinks that “Democrats have played their hand poorly” by misjudging Speaker McCarthy’s leadership abilities.

Since Democrats have argued for months for a clean debt ceiling increase and the GOP passed a bill with its priorities, the negotiations have been on Republican terms,” in which the most likely outcome is a debt ceiling deal that will “modestly cut domestic discretionary spending below last year’s levels and defense spending will be roughly flat.”

Congress will likely agree to cap spending for at least two years.

As far as permitting reforms, the GOP is arguing for an overhaul of the environmental permitting process, while Democrats are seeking changes to the rules governing the construction of transmission lines. The near term solution may be to agree to some of the permitting reforms, while kicking the more expansive reforms down the road.

Piper’s base case is that a deal “will be reached by this weekend and passed into law by June 1.”

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/648253691/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-mttXdiX7WmhDnwhtkXZ0

II) USA DATA/

Jobless claims rise after the debacle of Mass. fraud revisions/debacle

(zerohedge)

Initial Jobless Claims Rise After Massachusetts Fraud Revisions

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 08:40 AM

Initial jobless claims ‘confused’ last week, printing 229k (well below the 245k exp and the 242k prior). BUT, and it’s a big but, Massachusetts – after admitting to widespread fraud – has revised its last three months jobless claims data lower by an average of 14k per week.

The result is that claims actually ROSE last week from a revised lower 225k to 229k…

ource: Bloomberg

The last two weeks saw the headline claims revised down 50k jobs (-33k and -17k respectively)

We note that for the second week in a row, MA saw a big decline in claims…

Additionally, Continuing claims continued to trend back below 1.8mm.

Once again, can we really trust this data?

END

With mortgage rates topping 7% one would expect this

(zerohedge)

Pending Home Sales Disappoints In April As Mortgage Rates Top 7.00%

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 10:06 AM

Existing home sales slumped in April while new home sales soared (thanks to heavy incentives and price cuts) and this morning’s pending home sales data was expected to rebound modestly after a sizable decline in March. However, pending home sales in April disappointed, unchanged from March and down 22.6% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, as always NAR blames a lack of supply.. but does actually admit affordability is an issue

“Not all buying interests are being completed due to limited inventory,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said in a statement.

“Affordability challenges certainly remain and continue to hold back contract signings, but a sizeable increase in housing inventory will be critical to get more Americans moving.”

Faltering sales in the Northeast offset small increases in the rest of the country.

So is the housing market good, bad, or ugly?

Source: Bloomberg

The pending home sales report is often seen as a leading indicator of existing-home sales given houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

And finally, with mortgage rates back above 7.00%, don’t expect this ‘revival’ in demand to hold for long…

Source: Bloomberg

And Powell’s clear ‘pause’ signaling means ‘high rates for long’ unless we get a recession… neither of which are good for housing.

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Inflows soar by 47 billion as we have continual bank runs. Bailout to the banks continue and the crooks bomb gold.!

(zerohedge)

Bank Bailout Facility Usage Hits New Record High As Money-Market Fund Inflows Soared Again Last Week

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 04:42 PM

The last few days have seen the exuberance fade in regional bank shares as the brief short-squeeze ends and higher rates hint at increasing pressure on bank deposits (that we detailed last Friday).

Tonight’s money-market flows data is certainly not going to help things at all as inflows soared by the most since the first week, up $47 billion to a new record high at $5.39 trillion…

Institutional funds saw $39.4 billion in inflows and retail saw $7.26 billion more inflows…

Source: Bloomberg

This huge resurgence in money market fund inflows strongly suggests tomorrow’s H8 deposit report will show the bank walk/run is continuing…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s balance sheet shrank once again, down $20 billion to $8.436 trillion…

Source: Bloomberg

As far as QT is concerned, the Total Securities Held Outright dropped only $3.65 billion last week (notably less than the $29.89 billion the prior week) as QT started up again…

Source: Bloomberg

The US central bank had $96.1 billion of loans outstanding to financial institutions through two backstop lending facilities in the week through May 24, up slightly from the previous week.

Source: Bloomberg

…with the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program rising yet again to a new record high (up from $87 to $91.9 billion)

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s H4 table breakdown in details:

• QT: $4BN drop in MBS
• Discount Window: down 45BN to $4.2BN
• BTFP: up $5Bn to $91.9BN
• Other credit extensions (loans to FDIC): $192.6BN down $16BN

US Bank reserves at The Fed dipped last week, stocks remain blind to it (for now)…

Former Dallas Fed head Robert Kaplan dropped some uncomfortable truth bombs on the US banking system:

We are now heading into the third phase.

Bank leadership at small and midsize banks are considering how to shrink their loan books in order to address the mark-to-market loss of capital, as well as to guard against potential deposit instability in the future.

Bank leadership is very aware that the economy is slowing, and that we are likely about to enter a challenging credit environment.

While asset/liability mismatches are relatively easy to spot, assessing the quality of loan portfolios is much more complicated.

CEOs of many small and midsize banks are in a tough position.

They can’t easily raise equity because their stock prices are down.

As a result, they are turning to shrinking their loan books, finding places to pull back on existing loans and future loan commitments.

This is making it much harder for small and midsize businesses to get and keep their bank loans.

It is a quiet phase that won’t make headlines but is nevertheless relentlessly going on beneath the surface.

Read the full interview here…

end

We will find out if that is continuing to quietly occur as The Fed’s H8 report exposes the reality of bank deposits continuing to flow out and loan volumes declining.

My goodness; IRS sends attaches abroad to fight cybercrimes e.g. non payment of crypto transactions etc

(Nguyen/EpochTimes)

IRS To Send Attachés Abroad To Fight Cybercrimes

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Jane Nguyen via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Internal Revenue Service’s (IRS) Criminal Investigation (CI) unit will launch a pilot program in June in which cyber attachés will be sent across four continents to combat cybercrime, the agency announced on May 18.The Internal Revenue Service building in Washington, on Jan. 28, 2019. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

This initiative focuses on cracking down on tax and financial crimes involving cryptocurrency, decentralized finance, peer-to-peer payments, and mixing services. It signals the IRS’s commitment to staying one step ahead of cybercriminals in the digital landscape.

The program will be from June to September 2023, in which cyber attachés will be stationed in strategic locations worldwide. The chosen cities for deployment include Sydney, Singapore, Bogota, and Frankfurt, covering the regions of Australia, Asia, South America, and Europe, respectively.

The IRS CI seeks to facilitate a seamless exchange of expertise, intelligence, and tools with foreign counterparts to effectively combat cybercrime.

Jim Lee, Chief of the CI, emphasized the importance of empowering international partners with similar proficiency levels and resources to those in the United States. This initiative highlights the significance of forging strong international alliances to combat the transnational nature of cyber threats.

“In order to effectively combat cybercrime, we need to ensure that our foreign counterparts have access to the same tools and expertise we have here in the United States,” Lee said in a statement.

The CI currently has one permanent cyber attaché at Europol headquarters in The Hague, Netherlands. The position was created in 2020 to foster cooperation and coordination with CI’s European law enforcement counterparts.

The CI is the criminal investigative arm of the IRS that specializes in addressing a wide range of financial crimes, including tax fraud, narcotics trafficking, money laundering, public corruption, and health care fraud.

As the world becomes more digitized, U.S. authorities have recently intensified their crackdown on cybercriminals leveraging cryptocurrencies to carry out illegal activities and steal assets.

In March, the Department of Justice said it dismantled a darknet cryptocurrency mixer for enabling cybercriminals to launder more than $3 billion in cryptocurrency. Law enforcement seized two domains that directed users to the mixing service known as ChipMixer. The agency added that ChipMixer was also involved in other illicit activities, including ransomware, fraud, cryptocurrency heists, and other hacking schemes.

Separately, the IRS announced in April that it would increase enforcement in the area of digital asset transactions and listed transactions. The agency identified certain transactions to have high-risk issues in noncompliance and vowed to ramp up enforcement in those transactions.

“The IRS tracks many known, high-risk issues in noncompliance, such as digital asset transactions, listed transactions and certain international issues. These issues arise in multiple taxpayer segments, and data analysis shows a higher potential for noncompliance,” the tax agency wrote in its newly-released funding plan (pdf).

Read more here…

end

Rubio demands no CRE bailouts

(Senator Marco Rubio/RealClearPolitics)

“Stark Reminder Things Can & Do Fail” – Sen. Rubio Demands No Commercial Real Estate Bailouts

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 03:45 PM

Authored by Senator Marco Rubio, via RealClearPolitics.com,

In the mid-2000s, small-town Minnesota resident Charles Marohn saw an upscale strip mall being built in a neighboring city. By 2020, the mall was still half-vacant. It was a clear signal that supply had exceeded demand. Yet just as the pandemic began to recede, Marohn saw another, even larger mall go up on an adjacent property.

It violates all the laws of common sense, but it’s the norm across much of the United States.

Many of us have seen evidence of the commercial real estate industry’s “if you build it, they will come” mindset firsthand — the large empty office buildings, unused business parks, and blank storefronts. Now, it has Wall Street spooked.

“I see a tsunami of loans coming due,” one CEO recently told CBS.

“It’s really the perfect storm,” said another.

“You could see a run on all small regional banks. … And that could put us back to where we were with the financial crisis of ’08.”

Other real estate insiders are already calling for “some sort of intervention or assistance from federal regulators or a bailout from elected officials.”

On the one hand, the fact that our financial class is willing to admit the error of its ways is an improvement over the days leading up to the Great Recession, when real estate investors indulged in delusions of never-ending profits until the bill finally came due, and responsible homeowners were left to pick up the tab.

On the other hand, the “experts” should have seen this coming years ago. Other people did. For instance, locals sounded the alarm on commercial real estate glut in Washington, D.C., as far back as 2017. Of course, that didn’t stop developers from erecting new buildings in the nation’s capital, which still has vacancy rates above 20%.

Vacant properties, the work-from-home revolution, rising crime in urban centers, the unaffordability of city housing — all of these factors and more should have made it obvious that commercial real estate was approaching a cliff. Instead, there was unfounded optimism that things would return to “normal.” Owners used an “extend and pretend” strategy to get to the next monthly payment or quarterly earnings report. The façade only came down with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.

That failure was a stark reminder that things can and do fail, and that investors in failed businesses can be wiped out. That’s the way the real world works. Unfortunately, the financialization and consolidation of our economy have disconnected our markets from reality. WeWork and private real estate investment trusts — some of which are now blocking investor withdrawals — are among the clearest examples of this, but they are far from the only examples.

Take the case of the Minnesota strip mall. If the developer had sought financing for the project from a local bank, it probably never would have gotten off the ground. But as Marohn writes, “[i]f the local bank has any involvement today, it is [typically] as a broker — getting paid to make the transaction happen and then selling that commercial loan onto a secondary market.” In other words, financial constructs are disrupting local market feedback.

We have created an economy in which large-scale investors only realize they’ve gone wrong when it’s too late to turn back. This proved devastating to middle-, working- and lower-income Americans in 2008, who suffered a historic economic downturn while those “too big to fail” were bailed out by Washington. Unfortunately, history may be repeating itself.

If the Biden administration protects investors from the consequences of their actions, as the Federal Reserve let slip it would do in March, it will essentially be transferring wealth — at a massive scale — from America’s working class to the very investors and laptop liberals responsible for this crisis. That would tear our social fabric to shreds and further expand our class divide.

As policymakers, our duty is to the common good, not the stock market. Whether we like it or not, our economy is in the midst of a massive transformation. There will be winners and losers, but bailing out commercial real estate investors isn’t in our national interest. In fact, it would be the definition of unjust.

SAN FRANCISCO

This once beautiful city is destroyed!

(zerohedge)

“There’s Poop Everywhere”: San Francisco’s Office District Not Only A Ghost Town, It’s Also Covered In Sh*t

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24, 2023 – 07:10 PM

Urban Alchemy employees pick up trash while people gather belongings in the Tenderloin neighborhood. | Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Everyone knows that San Francisco is the nation’s largest public toilet – requiring the city to employ six-figure ‘poop patrol’ cleanup team, however a new report from the city Controller’s Office really puts things in poo-spective.

For starters, feces were found far more often in commercial sectors, covering “approximately 50% of street segments in Key Commercial Areas and 30% in the Citywide survey,” second only to broken glass as can be seen in the ‘illegal dumping’ section.

If you’re wondering about the city’s fecal methodology, look no further than a footnote on page 43;

Feces also includes bags filled with feces that are not inside trash receptacles. Feces that are spread or smeared on the street, sidewalk, or other objects along the evaluation route are counted. Stains that appear to be related to feces but have been cleaned are not counted. Bird droppings are excluded.

As far as where most of the poo is found, Nob Hill takes the top spot, followed by the Tenderloin and The Mission districts.Via the San Francisco Standard

“It’s terrible; this street is covered,” Tenderloin resident Joe Souza told The San Francisco Standard earlier this month. “There’s poop everywhere. You always see it along the wall and in front of the garage there.”

Meanwhile, nearly 2/3 of key commercial routes reported moderate to severe street litter, vs. 41% of the citywide streets struggling with the same problem.Via the San Francisco Standard

As the San Francisco Standard reports;

San Francisco’s commercial and residential streets are also highly tagged up, with every neighborhood except one—Visitacion Valley—reporting high levels of graffiti last year. The issue is once again worse in commercial areas, of which 71% said they had severe or moderate graffiti.A Clean City team in the Tenderloin power washes the sidewalk on Hyde Street in San Francisco. | Paul Chinn/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images

“In terms of actual counts of graffiti observed, there were about 10 times (160,000 vs. 16,000 respectively) as many instances of graffiti reported in the Key Commercial Areas survey in comparison to the Citywide sample,” the report said.

And San Francisco’s favorite cleanliness fixation, human or animal feces, continues to be a sore spot for the city: Almost half of the surveyed commercial areas observed feces. Citywide, that figure was just 30%.

*  *  *

San Francisco’s poopocalypse comes amid a staggering commercial office vacancy rate as a combination of pandemic-era work-from-home policies, and people fleeing the city’s notorious violence and poo-covered streets have made the once-thriving city into a ghost town.

END

SEATTLE

Insane:  Amazon workers plan walkout to protest returning to office and layoffs.  Maybe this will trigger more layoffs.

(zerohedge)

Seattle Amazon Workers Plan Walkout To Protest Returning To Office, Layoffs

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24, 2023 – 09:10 PM

Amazon workers are planning on protesting layoffs and requirements to return to the office (also referred to as simply “normal occurrences while participating in the workforce”) by walking out of the company’s Seattle headquarters next week. 

Because that’s a great way to not land yourself on the layoff list...complain about working and then walk out of your job.

Oh, and we almost forgot, they are also (of course) protesting “the company’s environmental impact”, according to ABC. The walkout is being planned for May 31, which will be one week after Amazon’s annual meeting, the report says. 

The protest is also reportedly “contingent on at least 1,000 Amazon employees from the company’s Seattle headquarters agreeing to participate”. We’ll eagerly await to see whether or not enough brain-dead Amazon employees decide to help meet quorum, putting their job on the line for what we’re sure will ultimately turn out to be a meaningless protest. 

Amazon took the decision in stride, at least publicly. “We respect our employees’ rights to express their opinions,” they said in a statement. Meanwhile Drew Herdener, senior vice president for communications at Amazon, claims there’s been “a good energy” on the company’s Seattle campus since people started returning to the office. 

As we have noted, Amazon, like many other U.S. companies, is in the midst of a string of layoffs, cutting 27,000 jobs since November. As ABC notes, layoffs have occurred broadly, in numerous divisions, including advertising, human resources, gaming, stores, devices and Amazon Web Services. 

The report concludes that “more than 20,000 workers signed a petition” to reconsider requiring returning to the office and says that “some employees” are complaining about the company’s inaction on addressing climate change. 

We’re sure the news has Jeff Bezos very bothered…

USA// COVID

SWAMP STORIES

House Ethics Committee Concludes Probe Into Rep. Eric Swalwell’s Associations With Alleged Chinese Spy

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24, 2023 – 04:50 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A two-year investigation into Rep. Eric Swalwell’s (D-Calif.) associations with a Chinese national and suspected spy has concluded, the bipartisan House Ethics Committee said on May 22.

The Committee announced the news in a private letter (pdf) to Swalwell in which chairman Michael Guest (R-Miss.) and ranking member Susan Wild (D-Pa.) explained that no further action will be taken against the California Democrat.

Swalwell published the letter on his official website.

“As you are aware, on April 9, 2021, the Committee on Ethics (Committee) informed you that it had determined to investigate allegations raised in the complaint that you may have violated House Rules, laws, or other standards of conduct in connection with your interactions with Ms. Christine Fang,” the letter read.

“The Committee will take no further action in this matter,” the letter continued.

Despite the Committee’s conclusion, Guest and Wild urged Swalwell to remain cautious and conscious of the possibility of improper influence by foreign agents and governments who they said may attempt to secure improper influence through gifts and other interactions.

“We encourage you to contact the Office of House Security for any guidance on steps you can take to prevent or address such attempts,” the letter concluded.

Political Intelligence, Influence Operations

Swalwell has been embroiled in the Chinese spy saga since 2020 when reports emerged that he had been targeted by a suspected Chinese intelligence operative known as Fang Fang or Christine Fang.

According to a December 2020 report by Axios, Fang, who enrolled as a student at California State University East Bay in 2011, had targeted Swalwell and other political figures between 2011 and 2015 after meeting him in Dublin City, California, when he was a council member.

Fang also reportedly took part in a fundraising activity for Swalwell’s 2014 reelection campaign.

A year later in 2015, Swalwell was appointed to the House Intelligence Committee, at which time federal investigators alerted him that they were concerned by Fang’s suspicious activity and behavior and suspected she was gathering political intelligence and conducting influence operations in the Bay Area.

The Democrat immediately cut ties with Fang who promptly left the country, according to the report.

Swalwell has maintained that he did nothing wrong and fully cooperated with the FBI.

Swalwell Blames ‘MAGA GOP’

However, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) removed Swalwell from the House Intelligence Committee in January amid the ongoing investigation, citing concerns over security.

Read more here…

END

An excellent commentary on the FBI

(Faddis/Magazine Substack)

The FBI Has Crossed The Rubicon

WEDNESDAY, MAY 24, 2023 – 07:30 PM

Authored by Sam Faddis via AND Magazine substack,

The expression “crossing the Rubicon” refers to the actions of Julius Caesar in crossing the Rubicon River and marching on Rome. Roman armies were forbidden to do so. The rule was very practical. The Romans understood the danger of allowing a large armed force to march on the capital city.  To allow this might spell the end of the republic. Best that popular conquering generals and their armies stay a safe distance away and respect the democratic institutions at the heart of Roman democracy.

Caesar broke the rule. He marched on Rome. He didn’t care what the Senators thought. The rest is history. Within a generation, there was no republic.

The FBI has now taken similar action. It has signaled in the clearest possible manner it does not care what the people or their elected representatives think. It will do what it pleases, and the consequences be damned.

The recently released Durham report paints a graphic picture of an agency out of control. The FBI did not blunder into an investigation of Donald Trump, his campaign, and his associates. The FBI undertook to deliberately destroy Trump and those around him including General Flynn. The FBI took unto itself the power to decide who could be President.

That fact has now been publicly exposed. The whole nation can see that the FBI acted in violation of law and every tradition we have had since the inception of the republic. The FBI has responded with remarkable clarity.

It did nothing wrong. It does not care what Durham (or countless whistleblowers) say(s). It does not care what Congress thinks. It will do as it pleases.

The Assistant Director of the FBI for Counterintelligence, Suzanne Turner, just testified before Congress. Asked about the Durham report, the one that said her agency had run amok and tried to stage what amounted to a coup, she responded by saying she had not bothered to read the report nor had she been briefed on it.

When pressed further she offered to take questions back to the FBI and see if she could get someone else to answer them. Contempt dripped from her every word and every mannerism. The concerns of the people’s elected representatives were clearly of no interest whatsoever to her.

The House Oversight Committee is investigating the possibility that the current President of the United States took money from foreign interests, including Communist China, in exchange for policy decisions. In other words, the House is pursuing evidence that suggests pretty strongly that Joe Biden works for Beijing. As part of that investigation, the House has demanded from the FBI copies of reports that apparently show the FBI knew about this some time ago.

The FBI has refused to provide the documents. Meanwhile, there are continuing reports that whistleblowers from within the federal workforce who provide information about the Bidens are being retaliated against and sidelined. In some cases, they have had their security clearances taken away and been suspended without pay. That’s what happens to FBI agents who think Congress is still in charge.

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) has blasted the FBI for impeding the investigation into the Biden family’s business dealings, calling the federal agency “very patronizing.” He has also said that the FBI does not “respect anyone.” All of that is crystal clear. The days when the FBI would scurry to take action and avoid Congressional disfavor are long gone. The Bureau is above all that now.

Meanwhile, the FBI has announced that it destroyed all of the evidence it gathered into the actions of Hillary Clinton, the Clinton Foundation, and the mountains of foreign money that flowed to the Clintons when Hillary was Secretary of State.  This comes after revelations that the FBI shut down four separate investigations into the Clinton campaign in the runup to the 2016 election.  While the FBI was manufacturing evidence of a non-existent Trump-Putin connection it was actively covering for Hillary – and it is continuing to do so.

Three years ago, the FBI was handed Hunter Biden’s laptop which literally drips with evidence not just of corruption but of Chinese intelligence connections to Joe Biden and his associates. As far as anyone can tell, the FBI continues to sit on that computer and intends to take no action of any kind to investigate its contents.

Information just surfacing indicates that the FBI routinely used FISA warrants to spy on domestic political opponents inside the United States.

The FBI no longer answers to the elected representatives of the American people nor does it care what they think. It did not get sloppy. It did not make some errors in judgment. Its leaders decided that they were entitled to do whatever they chose and to ignore our laws, our traditions, and the judgment of the nation’s citizens.

Most importantly, however, nothing that has happened has changed any of that. The FBI is not chastened. It is not scrambling to change course and make reforms. As an institution, it does not believe that it has done anything wrong.  It will continue to act in the future precisely as it has in the past.

The FBI has crossed the Rubicon. The consequences of that action, if not addressed immediately, will shake the foundations of the republic.

end

These ad executives are out of their minds!! The world is going nuts!!!!!!

(zerohedge)

Backlash & Boycott-Calls Hit North Face After Ad Featuring Drag Queen Inviting Everyone To ‘Come Out’

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, MAY 25, 2023 – 02:45 PM

A North Face advertisement featuring a drag queen in rainbow-themed outdoor sports gear has sparked backlash after going viral online. The popular outdoor apparel company has learned nothing from mounting customer boycotts against Bud Light and Target in recent weeks. 

“Hi, it’s me, Pattie Gonia, a real-life homosexual,” drag queen and self-described environmentalist and community organizer Pattie Gonia said in The North Face ad, adding, “Today I’m here with the North Face. We are here to invite you to come out … in nature with us!”

“We like to call this little tour, the Summer of Pride. This tour has everything: hiking, community, art, lesbians, lesbians making art. Last year we gay sashayed across the nation and celebrated pride,” the drag queen continued. 

Commenters on the video were mixed. One person said, “Did you learn nothing from Budweiser?”

“Sexual preference doesn’t need to be showcased in every single brand to sell stuff,” another user wrote. 

“Y’all gonna learn reallllll quick. You push an agenda that goes against THE MAJORITY OF your customers values, you gonna lose customers. You’re digging your own grave that’s what doesn’t make sense to me,” someone else said. 

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1661435242408714240&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fnorth-face-features-drag-queen-inviting-everyone-come-out-receives-backlash-and-boycott&sessionId=5ff7de68c0724a4bcac48650ae1e3d1ba9fef90f&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=aaf4084522e3a%3A1674595607486&width=550px

The North Face has attached its brand to the drag queen for the second consecutive year. Here are a few posts from Gonia’s own Instagram page:

A seemingly endless stream of Twitter users are boycotting the brand. 

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1661526967710097409&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fnorth-face-features-drag-queen-inviting-everyone-come-out-receives-backlash-and-boycott&sessionId=5ff7de68c0724a4bcac48650ae1e3d1ba9fef90f&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=aaf4084522e3a%3A1674595607486&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1661567178112376832&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fnorth-face-features-drag-queen-inviting-everyone-come-out-receives-backlash-and-boycott&sessionId=5ff7de68c0724a4bcac48650ae1e3d1ba9fef90f&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=aaf4084522e3a%3A1674595607486&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-3&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1661518651793739776&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fnorth-face-features-drag-queen-inviting-everyone-come-out-receives-backlash-and-boycott&sessionId=5ff7de68c0724a4bcac48650ae1e3d1ba9fef90f&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=aaf4084522e3a%3A1674595607486&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-4&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1661450846922592257&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fnorth-face-features-drag-queen-inviting-everyone-come-out-receives-backlash-and-boycott&sessionId=5ff7de68c0724a4bcac48650ae1e3d1ba9fef90f&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=aaf4084522e3a%3A1674595607486&width=550px

And this all comes as consumers are boycotting Bud Light, Target, and other brands. As we’ve noted, corporations have freedom of speech under the First Amendment but have to understand if their political ideologies don’t align with consumers, then the people also have freedom of speech to voice their opinion. That’s why corporations should stay out of identity politics or face boycotts. 

THE KING REPORT

The King Report May 24, 2023 Issue 6997

Independent View of the News

Japan’s real wages fall most in 8 years as inflation bites All eyes on impact of 4% pay rise at major firms, the largest in 30 years     “Risks to inflation and wages are rather skewed to the upside,” said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute. “A combination of easing inflation, tight job market and solid company profits will lay the ground for monetary policy normalization as early as this year.”…     Nominal wages rose 1.9% in the last fiscal year ending in March, the fastest increase in 31 years, but inflation at 3.8% outpaced those pay gains, resulting in real wages falling 1.8% in fiscal 2022, the data showed…  https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-s-real-wages-fall-most-in-8-years-as-inflation-bites   On Tuesday, Chinese stocks declined sharply, while the Nikkei retreated moderately.   Nikkei -0.42%, Hang Seng -1.25%, CSI 300 -1.41%, Shanghai Comp -1.52%, Shenzhen Comp -0.99%   Japan’s Topix index declined 0.66%, the first decline in eight sessions.  Semiconductor-related stocks led the decline on reports that Japan’s tighter export controls will take effect on July 23.   McCarthy: “We Are Nowhere Near a Deal.” – MNI 9:52 ET   GOP Negotiator Rep Graves: ‘I Don’t Think Things Are Going Well’ Over Debt Ceiling Talks: Reuters 9:59 ET   GOP Rep Graves: Work Requirement, Permitting Still on the Table – BBG 10:01 ET Graves: Until White House Understands Spending Crisis, We’re Not Going to Be Able to Move Forward   GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry: “I think it is very important to realize that ‘urgency’ should be the word of the day.  And that’s not the vibe I’m getting” from the White House.  BBG   @SquawkCNBC tweeted at 9:08 AM on Tue, May 23, 2023: “I think a deal probably happens but right now it’s a game of chicken,” says @SenTedCruz. “But I’m more worried now that we might default then I ever have been. I don’t think @POTUS is up to the task. I don’t think he’s engaged in the negotiations personally and directly.” https://t.co/7Himw66lOA   @SquawkCNBC tweeted at 9:11 AM on Tue, May 23, 2023: “The young extreme staffers in the White House have no appreciation for just how damaging a default would be,” says @SenTedCruz. “They are quite willing to force a default because they think the media will blame it on Republicans.” https://t.co/dxev091E8f   @townhallcom: GOP Rep @mattgaetz: “I don’t believe that the first of the month is a real deadline. Like, I don’t understand why we’re not making Janet Yellen show her work!” https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1661016073955872768   @townhallcom: Dem Rep. Pramila Jayapal: There will be “a huge backlash…in the streets” if the White House agrees to spending cuts.  (Violence threat without consequences: liberal privilege!) https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1661028988985262080   GOP Rep @mattgaetz: Imagine being willing RIOT for your federal benefits, but not WORK!   US economic data released on TuesdayMay Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey -16.0, -22.8 priorMay S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 48.5, 50 expected, 50.2 priorMay S&P Global Services PMI 55.1, 52.5 expected, 53.6 priorMay S&P Global Composite PMI 54.5, 53 expected, 53.4 priorApril New Home Sales 683k (13-month high), 665k expected, 656k (revised from 683k) prior; Median new home price $420.8k, -7.7% m/m (Another instance of a negative revision)Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -15, -8 expected, -10 prior  A Groundhog Day New Home Sales Report with More Massive Revisions Last month, new home sales rose 9.6 Percent to 683,000. This month, new home sales rose 4.1 percent to the same 683,000. In between are huge negative revisions. https://mishtalk.com/economics/a-groundhog-day-new-home-sales-report-with-more-massive-revisions   Despite the equity carnage in China, ESMs rallied sharply during early Asian trading on US debt ceiling talks optimism.  ESMs peaked (422.75) at 21:44 ET.  ESMs then progressively declined until the NYSE opening.  The usual suspects, of course, bought the NYSE opening dip.   The ensuing 13-handle ESM rally peaked near 10:00 ET.  ESMs and stocks then went inert as traders awaited information about US debt ceiling negotiations. Reports said Team Biden and Team McCarthy were scheduled to meet at 11:00 ET on Tuesday.   ESMs broke down at midday when Speaker McCarthy announced, “I’m not scheduled to go to the White House today.”  However, GOP negotiators met with WH negotiators.   ESMs formed a bottom of 4175.50 at 12:48 ET.  After a modest rally, ESMs sank anew on reports that negotiators left the Capitol after over two hours of debt-ceiling limit talks.     Near 14:10 ET, ESMs and stocks tumbled when GOP Rep & negotiator McHenry said, “We still have significant differences on spending.”   After hitting the daily low near 14:30 ET, ESMs and stocks traded in a tight range until the late manipulation appeared at 15:30 ET.  The rally was modest and short lived.  ESMs retreated into the close.   CNN Poll (May 17-20): 60% say debt ceiling increase should come with spending cuts https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/23/politics/cnn-poll-debt-ceiling-increase-spending-cuts/index.html   Biden’s 40% approval rating (60% disapprove) in the above CNN poll is the lowest approval rating for a president, at this point in a presidency, since Jimmy Carter per @IAPolls2022.   WSJ’s @NickTimiraos: More foreign-born people joined the labor force than native-born Americans last year. People born outside the US made up 18.1% of the overall labor force, up from 17.4% in 2021 and the highest level in data back to 1996 via @Rubinations @Rosieettenheim  https://t.co/RzQaqhA3bS   @NickTimiraos: The unemployment rate for Black Americans has fallen below 5% for the first time since records began in 1972.  @sechaney, @sinoceros on how the tightest job market in generations is transforming Black workers’ employment prospects https://www.wsj.com/articles/black-unemployment-rate-job-market-ebd93614   Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA rallied early on airline strength   Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined, until they rallied immodestly in the afternoon when stocks sank Stocks sank; Fangs were under pressure all session Gasoline rallied as much as 2%             Ambiguous aspects of previous session How long can equities ignore negative fundamentals?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4157.93 Previous session High/Low: 4185.68; 4142.54   Someone unearthed a 1990s Bud Light commercial making fun of men in drag who dominate women’s sports, and it’s still funny    https://notthebee.com/article/someone-found-a-1990s-budlight-commercial-making-fun-of-men-in-drag-dominating-womens-sports-and-its-still-funny   Top Israeli general says ‘action’ is on horizon over Iran nuclear work “Iran has advanced with uranium enrichment further than ever before … There are negative developments on the horizon that could bring about (military) action,” Lieutenant-General Herzi Halevi, chief of Israel’s armed forces, said in a speech. He did not detail what those developments might be, nor what action might be taken and by whom…  http://reut.rs/3Mt2VPa   Ron DeSantis to formally announce 2024 presidential run Wednesday https://trib.al/LSIayBV   Kenneth Monahan @Foudroyant: I can tell you why DeSantis is going to use twitter. I was a GOP Chief of Staff in the House during the 117th Congress. After Youngkin won the VA Governorship different elements of his team spoke to us all to help us learn the lessons of his campaign. His comms people went around giving a talk. They said that they held precisely one press conference at the launch of their campaign. Virtually of the questions were about Trump, nothing about VA, nothing about policy, nothing about contrasting him with his opponent. As a result, they never held another press conference for the entire campaign. They won. If you are a Republican candidate, it makes absolutely no sense to try to communicate with the voters through the traditional media.   Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich has new details from inside the debt ceiling talks: “The Speaker’s team says the biggest gap is on spending levels and limits but Fox has learned Democrats are very resistant to work requirements for welfare programs — a source familiar with the negotiations saying the latest GOP offer would cut SNAP benefits beyond what’s in the House-passed bill, calling it even harsher than what Trump once tried to do.”  https://twitter.com/TVNewsNow/status/1661153372236283912   Today – Nvidia is expected to report EPS of .92 at 16:20 ET.  NVDA fell as much as 1.7% on Tuesday.  Per the action on Monday and Tuesday, most traders are sidelined by the US debt ceiling talks.  This inertia will remain until some dynamic imparts enough force to change market direction.   Late trading could be impacted by rumors, or inside info, about Nvidia’s results.   ESMs are +7.00 at 20:25 ET.   Expected econ data: FOMC Minutes from May 3 14:00 ET; Fed Gov Waller (a hawk) 12:10 ET   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4086; 100-day MA: 4044; 150-day MA: 3993; 200-day MA: 3976 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,245; 100-day MA: 33,352; 150-day MA: 33,259; 200-day MA: 32,775 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3945.24 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4100.34 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4183.64 triggers a sell signal   Biden again claimed son Beau died ‘in Iraq’ to Marines at Japan stop https://nypost.com/2023/05/22/biden-again-claimed-son-beau-died-in-iraq-to-marines-at-japan-stop/   New IRS whistleblower letter suggests DOJ interference in Hunter Biden probe dates back years An IRS agent working with federal prosecutors and investigators on the Hunter Biden tax probe is alleging the agency ignored his team’s warnings about years of improprieties by Justice Department officials supervising the case… https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/tueirs-whistleblower-team-warned-years-hunter-biden-investigation   @nytimes: Prosecutors Sought Records on Trump’s Foreign Business Deals Since 2017 The special counsel scrutinizing the former president’s handling of classified documents issued a subpoena to the Trump Organization seeking records related to seven countries.     Prosecutors overseeing the investigation into Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents have issued a subpoena for information about Trump’s business dealings in foreign countries since he took office... Collectively, the subpoena’s demand for records related to the golf venture (Saudi’s LIV Golf) and other foreign ventures since 2017 suggests that Mr. Smith is exploring whether there is any connection between Mr. Trump’s deal-making abroad and the classified documents he took with him when he left office… (This could be a yuge problem!)  https://t.co/cJ0ibxduRp   Trump special counsel ‘wrapping up’ mishandling of classified documents investigation: report The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Smith is “wrapping up” the probe and has “all but finished” collecting evidence and testimony related to boxes of classified material found by the FBI at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort and residence last August… https://trib.al/4OFyltA   GOP megadonor (Point Bridge Capital founder Hal Lambert) urges Trump to drop out of the 2024 race, backs DeSantis: It’s ‘time’ for the next generation https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/gop-megadonor-urges-trump-drop-out-of-2024-race-backs-desantis-next-generation   @CGasparino: Wall Street execs backing @GovRonDeSantis say he will have near unlimited funding. “He’s a fundraising machine and he will spend it,” one told me. Unclear if @GovRonDeSantis will go negative on @realDonaldTrump BUT he will have plenty of money to do so, I am told.   Unhinged NYC college professor who cursed out anti-abortion students holds machete to Post reporter’s neck (What is wrong with some teachers these days?) https://nypost.com/2023/05/23/nyc-college-professor-shellyne-rodriguez-holds-machete-to-post-reporters-neck/   Disturbing video shows machete-wielding NYC professor chase Post reporter, photographer https://trib.al/Ih9IOj2   @JonathanTurley: CUNY’s Hunter College refused to fire Rodríguez after she trashed a pro-life table. https://jonathanturley.org/2023/05/21/youre-triggering-my-students-hunter-college-professor-trashes-pro-life-display/     However, it said it would not tolerate another incident. How about holding a machete to a reporter’s neck and saying that she will chop him up?   NYC college professor who threatened Post reporter with machete is fired https://trib.al/JMeWslp   Dodgers’ latest reversal on anti-Catholic group’s invite to Pride Night draws backlash: ‘Disgraceful’ The Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence, a group of “queer and trans nuns,”… history of anti-Catholic messaging and shocking performances… https://t.co/sSBi1sh6hJ   Suspect in U-Haul crash into White House grounds ID’d as Sai Varsith  Kandula After barreling the vehicle into the security barriers, he reportedly exited the front seat and starting waving the red, swastika-emblazoned flag before he was taken into custody.   He allegedly told FBI investigators he wanted to take control of the government and kill the president, ABC reported.  https://nypost.com/2023/05/23/sai-kandula-idd-as-suspect-in-u-haul-white-house-crash/   How did the suspect intend to take over the US government with only a Nazi flag?  Is this a another case of a suspect with mental health issues?   @MattWallace888: Let me get this straight… so you are telling me a guy with a Nazi flag in an empty Uhaul Truck randomly plowed into a White House barricade at low speeds, then gave up immediately and got arrested, and the FBI laid out the flag in front of the truck for the perfect photo op? https://twitter.com/MattWallace888/status/1660896865808678913   @EvaVlaar: The alarmist reddening of weather maps is a perfect visualization of how 5th generational warfare works. We’re dealing with an information war and the battlefield is our mind. https://twitter.com/EvaVlaar/status/1660995587854983169   Chicago Carnival Invaded By “Flash Mob” of Over 400 Teenagers The best way to destroy a once-great American city is to elect progressives who will implement social justice reform. And the result, as we turn our attention to various West Coast cities, Baltimore, and Chicago, is the rapid decline of law and order…     “There were a bunch of guys in ski masks and there was a ton and we saw them around and then all of a sudden people started running.” (Crime is soaring in contiguous Chicago suburbs.) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chicago-carnival-invaded-flash-mob-over-400-teenagers end’ The King Report May 25, 2023 Issue 6998Independent View of the NewsDisappointing April UK CPI and RPI (Retail Price Index) reports weighed on European stocks.CPI 8.7% y/y; 8.2% expected, 10.1% prior; 1.2% m/m, 0.8% expected and priorAll Services CPI 6.9% y/y, 6/6% priorCore CPI 6.8% y/y, 6.2% y/y expected and prior; 1.3% m/m, 0.7% expected, 0.9% priorRPI 11.4% y/y, 11.1% expected; 3.5% priorRPI ex-Mortgage Payments 10.4% y/y, 10.2% expected, 12.6% prior  April UK PPI indices were moderately lower than expected.PPI Output NSA 0.0% m/m & 5.4% y/y, 0.2% & 5.8% expected, 0.1% m/m & 8.7% priorPPI Input NSA -0.3% m/m & 3.9% y/y, +0.2% m/m & 4.8% exp, 0.2% m/m & 7.6% y/y prior  UK March Price Index 4.1% y/y, 4.5% expected, 5.5% prior May UK CBI Trends Total Orders -17, -19 expected, -20 prior   ECB President Lagarde reiterates the ECB will bring rates to sufficiently restrictive levels and keep them at those levels for as long as necessary.   German Ifo Business Climate New (May) 91.7 vs. Exp. 93.0 (Prev. 93.6, Rev. 93.4); Expectations New (May) 88.6 vs. Exp. 91.9 (Prev. 92.2) German Ifo Current Conditions New (May) 94.8 vs. Exp. 94.8 (Prev. 95.0; Rev. 93.1) Ifo: Number of companies who aim to increase prices in May has fallen further; German economy is treading water, Q2 is going towards stagnation.   European Stocks Sink Most in Two Months – BBGUK Inflation stronger than expected; Luxury stocks declineMainland China shares erase this year’s gains; Copper slumps https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-fall-debt-impasse-221047296.html   McCarthy, Graves Signal Impasse in White House Debt TalksHouse lawmakers preparing to leave Washington on ThursdayVotes on any deal likely pushed until just before deadline“Bottom line is that we’re going to have to see some movement or some fundamental change in what they’re doing,” Graves said of the White House negotiating team. “Right now, we don’t have additional meetings set up.”… some conservative House members said Tuesday they even doubt the drama is necessary, with Representative Chip Roy of Texas even calling it a “manufactured crisis” to force Republicans into stepping back from some demands… https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/international/mccarthy-graves-signal-impasse-in-white-house-debt-talks/   GOP, Biden Negotiators to Meet at Noon Amid Debt Default Impasse – BBG 11:24 ET   ESMs traded modestly positive, but flat, during Asian trading.  They commenced a decline after China’s 2:00 ET close that persisted until a post-European open rally produced a 15-handle ESM rally. Then, UK economic data was released; ESMs and stocks sank until the 8 ET US bond market opening.   The rally was modest and lasted only 24 minutes.  ESMs and stocks resumed their declines, abetted by troubling reports that no negotiations for the US debt ceiling and budget were scheduled for the day.   ESMs and stocks formed a bottom near 11:00 ET.  The usual rally for the 11:30 ET European close was fortified by reports that GOP and Biden negotiators would meet at Noon ET.   ESMs jumped 17.75 by 11:26 ET because McCarthy said, “I don’t want a default.  I think we can make progress today.”   McCarthy also said that he told Biden ‘We won’t raise taxes’; and Democrats are the problem on the state of the debt talks. The Speaker added that ‘We offered many concessions, so, a deal is possible today.’    ESMs and stocks rescinded most of the rally by 11:44 ET after McCarthy said the sides are ‘still far apart on debt talks but can get to a yes… I firmly believe we can get to a deal.’   @ChadPergram: McCarthy on Dems on debt ceiling: Why didn’t they pass something? The president he didn’t talk to us for nine, seven days. So don’t blame me for reaching out to the Democrats, for begging the president to meet with me, are trying to find it.  And don’t blame Republicans when we put a reasonable bill together that we actually took Democrats ideas.     Democrats could have lifted the debt ceiling prior to me becoming speaker. They knew the outcome of the election already. They knew we were taking power.  They passed an omnibus bill, but they decided not to do the raising of the debt ceiling, even though they thought people should just raise it cleanly.   @SpeakerMcCarthy: President Biden has 8 days left to avoid becoming the first president in history to default on the debt.   ESMs and stocks bottomed at 12:22 ET.  A belated Noon Balloon developed.  The rally progressed on hopes that the Fed Minutes (From May 2-3), released at 14:00 ET, would be beneficial for stocks.   Fed Minutes Show Officials Split on Support for More Hikes – BBG Fed Official Stress Data-Dependent Approach, Cuts Unlikely – BBG Almost All Officials Saw Upside Risks to Inflation Outlook – BBG Fed Official Agreed Inflation Was Still “Unacceptably High” – BBG Fed Staff Maintained Forecast For ‘Mild’ Recession in 2023, followed by moderately paced recovery https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20230503.pdf   The rally ended on the more hawkish than expected FOMC Minutes from the May 2-3 meetings. After a 15-handle retreat, ESMs rebound at 14:30 ET after a WH spokesperson said ‘We will continue to negotiate in good faith to reach a reasonable budget agreement.’   The rally was modest and ended within 16 minutes.  After a modest retreat, the last-hour upward manipulation commenced at 15:00 ET.  ESMs soared 22 handles in 21 minutes, because Nvidia, whose results were due after the close, went vertical – 5.5 points in 23 minutes.  Did someone have inside info?   ESMs advanced another 4 handles by 15:32 ET.  But NVDA rolled over; ESMs lost 16 handles in 18 minutes.  NVDA rallied again at 15:45 ET; but ESMs continued to fall, dropping 20 handles from the last hour high by 15:51 ET.  ESMs traded flat into the close.   After the close, Nvidia reported EPS of 1.09, .92 exp; sales of $7.19B ($6.52B exp).  NVDA forecast Q2 revenue of $11B +/- $2B, ($7.18B exp).  NVDA soared 29.3%!  Someone always has nonpublic info!   Positive aspects of previous session Fangs were relatively strong on buying for Nvidia results due after the close Bonds bounced after being down as much as 19/32 in the morning Last-hour rally led by Nvidia on results optimism or trading on non-public information   Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined again, probably on concern that eventually a tsunami of Treasuries would be issued Stocks sank Gasoline rallied as much as 2.2%             Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will happen on June 1 if there is no debt ceiling increase?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4117.42 Previous session High/Low: 4132.96; 4103.98   Babylon Bee: Nation Unsure How the Government Not Being Able to Borrow More Money Is a Crisis https://buff.ly/3orYbBc   Microsoft says China-backed hacker targeted critical infrastructure in Guam, U.S. Microsoft said it assessed with “moderate confidence” that this Volt Typhoon campaign “is pursuing development of capabilities that could disrupt critical communications infrastructure between the United States and Asia region during future crises.”… (Yet The Big Guy sees China as a competitor, not a foe.) https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-says-china-backed-hacker-targeted-critical-us-infrastructure-2023-05-24/   @paulsperry_: The # of Border Patrol “encounters” w/ illegal immigrants from communist China totaled >4,200 from Oct 2022 to Feb 2023, more than double the >1,900 for the entire fiscal year 2022, US Customs and Border Protection data reveal. Most of the Chinese nationals were military age men   @Jkylebass: Texas DPS is now apprehending 500+ Chinese nationals PER WEEK. The flow rates are north of 2,000 per month or +1,780% more than last year at this time. Something insidious is going on with the invasion of undeclared Chinese nationals at our southern border. Watch this video to see how they are only required to write a name on a piece of paper to enter. This is an unacceptable risk to U.S. national security.  https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1661136784154058756   @pyquantnews: Every unsuccessful trader… believes the markets are rigged. Every successful trader knows the markets are rigged and learns how to play, to make money, you have to play their game.   Today – The markets will remain on US debt ceiling/budget talks watch.  But with each passing day, the deadline draws closer – the Memorial Day Weekend looms.  Prudent traders and investors will wait and watch.  The market expects a debt ceiling deal by June 1.  What possibly could go wrong?  Fitch placed the United States’ AAA Rating on Watch Negative.   The DJIA closed 25 points above its 200 DMA (32,774.96).  This should be strong support.   ESMs hit +31.00 when they opened at 18:00 ET due to Nvidia.  They sank to +5.50 by 18:37 ET.  ESMs are +18.00 at 20:25 ET.  Barring debt deal news, equity action could be dictated by the ability of Nvidia (394.74 high at 17:20 ET) and ESMs to hold their after-hour gains.    Expected econ data: Q1 GDP 1.1%, Consumption 3.7%, GDP Price Index 4.0$, Core PCE 4.9%, Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.20; Initial Jobless Claims 245k, Continuing Claims 1.8m; April Pending Home Sales 1.0% m/m & -20.3% y/y; May KC Fed Manf. Activity -12; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 9:50 ET, Boston Fed Pres Collins 10:30 ET   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4090; 100-day MA: 4046; 150-day MA: 3996; 200-day MA: 3976 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,258; 100-day MA: 33,348; 150-day MA: 33,274; 200-day MA: 32,775 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3945.24 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4100.34 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4147.00 triggers a sell signal   @RonDeSantis: I’m running for president to lead our Great American Comeback. (Video at link) https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1661491799393964034   Twitter (Spaces) experienced a severe slowdown due to the yuge number of users attempting to join DeSantis’ announcement and conversation with Elon Mush.   DeSantis quotes: “We need an honest reckoning about what happened during Covid… I think all those agencies need to be cleaned out.  What I saw, just dealing with them, I saw an interest in the narrative and in politics over evidence-based reasoning and evidence-based medicine.”“I will shut down the border, construct the border wall and hold the drug cartels accountable.”“No excuses — I will get the job done.”“We will re-constitutionalize this government… and end the bureaucratic state…”“I will “eliminate ideological agendas from our military (and boost recruitment).”  PhilipWegmann: DeSantis says “nobody probably has made Disney more money than me” bc they were open in Florida “during COVID and they were closed in California.”     DeSantis takes shot at “some of these Republicans (Trump) that are taking Disney’s side,” calling them “corporatist.”  DeSantis says that, if elected, FBI Director Chris Wray is gone on “Day One.”  The governor then espouses a unified theory of the executive saying: DoJ and FBI “are not independent agencies. They are part of the executive branch. “They answer to the elected President of the US.”   @ShelbyTalcott: As DeSantis takes part in this Twitter spaces event, donors have gathered at the Four Seasons in Miami for a reception event – they’re listening via an audio feed from the ballroom.  As for the early glitches, a person attending the reception event at the hotel tells me that attendees were not really phased: “In here non issue.”   @Travis_in_Flint: During Twitter announcement Desantis responds on the immigration crisis:  If I were President I would reverse everything Biden is doing.  We’ll declare a national emergency on day 1, construct a border wall, reimplement remain in Mexico, and deal with the cartels that are trafficking people and fentanyl to our country.  We can’t allow these criminal organizations to continue poisoning our population.  We’re going to stop this insanity once and for all on day 1.   @paulsperry_: John Durham, Paper Tiger...  STRZOK: No interview. No subpoena; McCABE: No interview. No subpoena ; COMEY: No interview. No subpoena ; PRIESTAP: No interview (Crossfire). No subpoena; SIMPSON: No interview. No subpoena; ELIAS: No interview. No subpoena; JOFFE: No interview. No subpoena   The FBI Has Crossed the Rubicon It has signaled in the clearest possible manner it does not care what the people or their elected representatives think. It will do what it pleases, and the consequences be damned… https://andmagazine.substack.com/p/the-fbi-has-crossed-the-rubicon   White House U-Haul ramming suspect Sai Kandula jailed until next week, charges downgraded He was originally charged with threatening to kill, kidnap or inflict harm on a president, vice president or family member, as well as assault with a dangerous weapon, reckless operation of a motor vehicle, trespassing and destruction of federal property, US Park Police said. His federal charges have since been downgraded to a single count of depredation of property of the United States in excess of $1,000.    Prosecutors told the court Kandula is not a US citizen, according to Fox News… https://nypost.com/2023/05/24/white-house-u-haul-suspect-sai-kandula-jailed/   Why the kid gloves for the non-US citizen when Jan 6 trespassers had the book thrown at them?   @Heminator: Dude rams a White House barrier and “his federal charges have since been downgraded to a single count of depredation of property of the United States“?  I don’t want to sound paranoid, but that seems like they’re trying to hush this up…   AOC Picks Fight with Ted Cruz on ‘Racist History’ of Democrat Party, He Finishes ItFirst, the Dem party founded the KKK.Then the Dem party wrote Jim Crow laws.Then the Dem party filibustered the Civil Rights Act.Today, the Dem part[y] filibusters school choice—trapping millions of Black kids in failing schools.The Dem party pushes abolishing the police, which results in many more Black lives murdered..The Republican Party was founded to oppose slavery…It was Republicans who voted for the Civil Rights Act in a much higher % than racist Dems…And today, the sitting Dem President—Joe Biden—gave in 2011 a flowery eulogy for an “Exalted Cyclops” of the KKK.    And to add to all that, the Dem party aggressively supports open borders—which has led to the deaths and brutal assaults of thousands of Hispanics, and @aoc somehow can’t seem to find her White pantsuit to cry over their suffering. https://redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2023/05/23/aoc-picks-fight-with-ted-cruz-on-racist-history-of-democrat-party-he-finishes-it-n750310   Chicago Democrat sounds alarm as 55 schools report no proficiency in math or reading: ‘Very serious’ https://www.foxnews.com/media/chicago-democrat-sounds-alarm-55-schools-report-no-proficiency-math-reading-serious.amp   Daily Mail: Black Lives Matter is headed for INSOLVENCY after plunging $8.5M into the red – but founder Patrisse Cullors’ brother was still paid $1.6M for ‘security services’ in 2022, while sister of board member earned $1.1M for ‘consulting’ – The organization in February 2021 said it had taken in more than $90 million in 2020 and still had $60 million on hand… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12117957/Black-Lives-Matter-headed-INSOLVENCY-plunging-8-5M-red.html   “If one analyses it, political freedom is an accepted myth thought up by those governing to put the governed to sleep.” – Napoleon   “Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.” — Ronald Reagan

GREG HUNTER 

I will see you on FRIDAY