JUNE 1//GOLD CLOSED UP $14.10 TO $1977.80//SILVER CLOSED UP $0.49 TO $23.90//PLATINUM CLOSED UP 8.80 TO $1009.90 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $27.25 TO $1397.70//IMPORTANT GOLD POSTS: AMBROSE EVANS PRITCHARD//CHINA’S ECONOMY IF FALTERING AND 5 COMMODITIES WHICH PROVE THIS IS HAPPENING/THE IRISH ARE FORCING THE CULLING OF THE CATTLE TO MEET CLIMATE CHANGE: HOW STUPID CAN THEY BE?//RUSSIA CLAIMS THAT THE USA IS BEHIND THE CONFLICT BETWEEN SERBIA AND KOSOVO//PROBLEMS OCCUR AT THE BORDER OF IRAN AND AFGHANISTAN (TALIBAN)///COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/EWOL NEWS//SOUTH AFRICA SIDELINES ANOTHER RAIL DUE TO MASSIVE THEFTS OF EQUIPMENT//DEBT CEILING BILL PASSED //DAVID STOCKMAN TELLS THE TRUTH ON THE BILL//USA MFG PMI’S FALTER BADLY/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $26,939 DOWN 126 dollars
Platinum price closing $1001.10 UP $19.85
Palladium price; $1370.45 UP$35.15
“Our system is so stinkin’ corrupt that we owe Sodom and Gomorrah an apology.” … Trader Dan Norcini in 2009
GO GATA!
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,660,61 DOWN 4.50 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)
BRITISH GOLD: 1578,70 DOWN 1.21 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)
EURO GOLD: 1838,15 UP 3.30 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
AMERICAS 161 134 167 C MAREX 6 190 H BMO CAPITAL 498 323 C HSBC 20 323 H HSBC 1503 357 C WEDBUSH 4 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 147 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 844 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 5000 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 69 661 C JP MORGAN 15 2661 661 H JP MORGAN 219 685 C RJ OBRIEN 9 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 23 3 690 C ABN AMRO 88 45 709 C BARCLAYS 39 737 C ADVANTAGE 130 880 C CITIGROUP 1 880 H CITIGROUP 1389 905 C ADM 33 33
TOTAL: 6,537 6,537
JPMorgan stopped 3661/6537 contracts
FOR JUNE:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2023. CONTRACT: 6537 NOTICES FOR 653,700 OZ or 20.3528 TONNES
total notices so far: 15,561 contracts for 1,556,100 oz (48.401 tonnes)
FOR JUNE:
SILVER NOTICES: 303 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1,515,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 362 for 1,810,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP UP $14.10
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////
INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 49 CENTS AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : : INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 467.933 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 21 CONTRACTS TO 133,598 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS TINY SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.37 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUGE SIZED 985 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION NEXT MONTH OR TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY: A HUGE 985 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES
WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.37). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 274CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 0MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION. IT LOOKS LIKE IN THIS INITIAL WEEK IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE MORE MANIPULATION HAS BEEN SUMMONED BY OUR CROOKED BANKER LEADERS TO KEEP OUR PRECIOUS METALS IN CHECK.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 190 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.935 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP// TOTAL FOR THE MONTH 3.965MILLION OZ ) // TINY SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT INITIATION (985 CONTRACTS)//ZERO T.A.S LIQUIDATION
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -removed 105CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 days, total 190 contracts: OR 0.95 MILLION OZ . (190 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 0.95 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 0.95 MILLION OZ//
RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 21 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $0.37 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 190 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE OF 3.935 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING: 3.965 MILLION OZ////// .. WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF169 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 985//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED WEDNESDAY. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE.
WE HAD 303 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,515,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4336 CONTRACTS TO 445,695 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED – 516 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 4336 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $5.70 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE. AT 70.79 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTROUS 8.2457 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL 62.469 TONNES STANDING SO FAR // + /A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF 2042 T.A.S. CONTRACTS/ZERO FRONT END OF TAS LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY ////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $5.70 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1961 OI CONTRACTS (6.099 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2375 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 445,179
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1961 CONTRACTS WITH 4,336 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX//TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 2042 CONTRACTS) AND 2375 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1961CONTRACTS OR 6.099TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2375 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (4336) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1961 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 70.79 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 265,100 OZ QUEUE JUMP I.E. 8.2457 TONNES: NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 62.479 TONNES// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: GIGANTIC T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2045 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 2375 CONTRACTS OR 237,500 OZ OR 7.387 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2375 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 7.387 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 7.387/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.208% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 7.387 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 21 CONTRACTS OI TO 133,598 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 190 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 190 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 190 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 21 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 190OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 169 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 0.845 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.37 GAIN IN PRICE …..
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.07 PTS OR 0.00% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 17.36 PTS OR 0.10% /The Nikkei closed UP 260.13 OR 0.84% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.24 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1116 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1289 /Oil UP TO 67.95 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 72.66 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4336 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 445,179 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.70 ON WEDNESDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2375 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 2375 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2375 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1,961 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2,375LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 4336 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.70. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE TODAY WAS A HUGE 2042 CONTRACTS. DURING LAST WEEK THE BANKERS SOLD THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JUNE (62.506) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 62.506 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $5.70) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1961 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ZERO/TINY TAS LIQUIDATION. . THE TAS ISSUED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 6.099PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE. (70.790 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 265,100 OZ EFP JUMP TO LONDON WHERE THIS 8.2457 TONNES OF GOLD WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER IN LONDON // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $5.70
WE HAD – REMOVED 516 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1,961 CONTRACTS OR 196,100 OZ OR 6.099 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
15,561 notices 1,556,100 OZ 48.401 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
nil
total deposits: nil oz
Withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Brinks 33,536.100 oz
ii) Out of Int. Delaware 803.775 oz (25 kilobars)
total 34,339.875 oz
Adjustments; one Manfra
customer to dealer: 1929.06 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.
For the front month of JUNE we have an oi of 11,092 contracts having LOST 11,666 contracts. We had 9024 contracts served upon yesterday so we lost 2642 contracts or a huge 264,200 oz were immediately E.F.P.’d to London where they will exercise contracts and take delivery of 8.2177 tonnes of gold over in London. The next front month after June is the non active delivery month of July. Here July gained 15 contracts to stand at 2906 contracts.
AUGUST gained 7298 contracts UP to 373.618 contracts
We had 6537 contracts filed for today representing 653,700oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 15 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 6,537 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3661 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (15,561 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (11,092 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 6537 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,009,600 OZ OR 62.506 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON- active month of May.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNEcontract month: No of notices filed so far (15,561) x 100 oz + (11,092 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (6557)x 100 oz} which equals 2,009,600 oz standing OR 62.506 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 62.506 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,836,577.877 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,642,604.552 (362.13 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,193,973.325 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,937875 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 309.109 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JUNE 1//2023// THE JUNE 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,882,086.114 oz Brinks CNT JPM Loomis
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
551,231/200 oz
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
303 CONTRACT(S) (1,515,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
431 contracts (2,155,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
362 Contracts (1,810,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposits
total dealer deposit: nil oz
total dealer deposits: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We had 1 customer deposits
i) Into JPMorgan: 551,231.200 oz
Total deposits: 551,231.200 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 141.367 million oz/272.237 million =51.78% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals 4
i) Out of Brinks 228,076.760 oz
iii) Out of Loomis: 600,387.130 oz
iii) out of JPMorgan: 1,011,611.610 oz
iv) Out of CNT 42,010.914 oz
total withdrawals: 122,464.430 oz
adjustments: 1 all dealer to customer
i) Brinks 4760.200 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 28.157 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 272.237 million oz
DEALER SILVER DROPPING FAST.
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE /2023 OI: 734 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 53 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 59 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY (CME CORRECTION) SO WE GAINED 6 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 30,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.
JULY HAD A 1490 CONTRACT LOSS TO 100,616 CONTRACTS
AUGUST GAINED ITS FIRST TWO CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2
SEPT HAS A GAIN OF 1203 CONTRACTS UP TO 21,898
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 303 for 1,515,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 78,703 excellent/
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 362 x 5,000 oz = 1,810,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(734) and the number of notices served upon today 303 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE/2023 contract month: 362 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE (734) – number of notices served upon today (303 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates to 3.965 million oz +
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $14.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
MAY 30/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 26/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.50 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 23/WITH GOLD $2.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
MAY 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.83 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD DESPITE THE L0SS IN PRICE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.94 TONNES
MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934,07
MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.84 TONNES
MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.70 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 9/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.77 TONNES
MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AS DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $19.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.47 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 2/WITH GOLD UP $32.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES
APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 939.56 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ
MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 367,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ//
MAY 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//
MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.306 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//
MAY 25.WITH SILVER DOWN $0.32 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.606 MILLION OZ//
MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.35 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//
MAY 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//
MAY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ//
MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ
MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ/
MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ//
MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .643 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ.
MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ/
MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 3,123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ./
MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.18 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ
MAY 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.286 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ//
MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A TINY DEPOSIT OF .08 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.682 MILLION OZ//
MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.602 MILLION OZ//
MAY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.876 MILLION OZ//
MAY 4/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .174 MILLION OZ INTO SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.174 MILLION OZ//
MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.070 MILLION OZ//
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ
APRIL 28/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.482 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.103 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.182 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.102 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.285 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 467.933 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
The Fed Blew Up Another Real Estate Bubble And It’s Losing Air
The rampant money creation and zero percent interest rates during the COVID pandemic on top of three rounds of quantitative easing and more than a decade of artificially low interest rates in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis created all kinds of distortions and malinvestments in the economy and the financial system. It was inevitable that something would break when the Federal Reserve tried to raise interest rates in order to fight the price inflation it caused with its loose monetary policy.
Easy money is the lifeblood of the US economy and financial system. The Fed started draining that lifeblood away when it stepped in to fight the price inflation it could no longer write off as transitory. There was no way the central bank wasn’t going to break something.
The first crack in the dam was the ongoing financial crisis kicked off by the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The Federal Reserve and the US government managed to plug that hole in the dam with a bank bailout. But there are plenty of other cracks in the dam.
For instance, the investment real estate market is under significant pressure due to rising interest rates. As a report by Yahoo Finance noted, “Big owners of property around the country were already under pressure from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, which raised borrowing costs and lowered building values.”
It’s not unlike the housing bubble the Fed blew up in 2005 and 2006 but this time it’s concentrated on commercial real estate such as office buildings, multi-family housing complexes, and apartment buildings.
Jay Gajavell puts a human face on this problem.
Gajavell is a Texas real estate investor. According to the Wall Street Journal, his company owned $500 million-plus worth of Sunbelt apartment buildings with more than 7,000 units. He ranked as one of the biggest landlords in Houston.
Gajavelli is what is known as a syndicator. He built his real estate empire using funding from numerous small investors who wanted to get into the real estate game without all the work.
The plan was to buy apartment buildings, upgrade units, raise rents, and sell the buildings for a profit in as little as three years. But as the WSJ described it, these investors were “highly vulnerable to interest-rate increases over the past year that crushed the business model they and thousands of others in similar deals across the US had hoped would make them wealthy.”
The Wall Street Journal described the situation as a “looming investment-property disaster.”
In fact, rising interest rates have already caught up with Gajavelli. In April, his company lost four rental complexes with more than 3,000 units through foreclosure.
The Wall Street Journal explained what did Gajavelli in.
His company had taken out commercial real-estate loans that carried floating interest rates and were adjusted each month. Those types of loans in 2021 offered initial rates as low as 3.5%. Everything changed when the Federal Reserve began raising rates last year, driving up monthly loan payments. Inflation contributed to higher expenses, and Applesway couldn’t raise rents fast enough to keep pace. After bills went unpaid, company properties went into foreclosure.”
It would be one thing if this was an isolated incident, but it isn’t. There are thousands of real estate entrepreneurs like Gajavelli, and many are in a similar situation.
A law passed by Congress in 2012 helped spark the boom in real estate syndication, making it easier to market real estate investments online. According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Securities and Exchange Commission filings, real estate syndicators reported raising at least $115 billion from investors between 2020 and 2022.
In the wake of the pandemic, there was a major real estate boom spurred by zero percent interest rates and billions of dollars in stimulus money that further incentivized people to invest in real estate.
As housing prices exploded, rents skyrocketed as well. One property manager described it as a mania.
Now the bubble is deflating, as the WSJ describes.
Many syndicators are racing to either raise funds or sell properties before tipping into foreclosure. Most hold balloon-payment loans that require repayment when they come due this year or next. Those syndicators face large payouts at a time when getting new, more affordable property loans will be difficult. Even firms with multibillion-dollar portfolios have used syndication to buy apartment buildings that no longer make enough money to cover debt payments, bond documents show.”
While the Wall Street Journal does a great job of explaining the nuts and bolts of the syndication scheme and mentions the role of rising interest rates in popping the bubble, it completely ignores the Federal Reserve’s role in blowing up the bubble to begin with.
As I pointed out earlier, the Fed created this problem long before when it held rates artificially low for so long. It incentivized all of this borrowing and risk-taking. Everybody just assumed rates would stay low forever so they levered up and took on more and more risk.
Gajavelli probably wouldn’t have been able to build his real estate empire without Fed’s easy money policies.
Unfortunately for Gajavelli and many like him, what the Fed giveth, the Fed taketh away.
This describes the impact of Fed monetary policy on one sector. Bubbles and malinvestments are certainly present in many other sectors of the economy as well. The question is where will the next hole open up in the dam?
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
the sad state of affairs with respect to the huge debt of the USA
(Ambrose Evans Pritchard/GATA)
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: America’s Faustian pact with runaway debt is coming due
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-05-30 10:25Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard The Telegraph, London Tuesday, May 30, 2023
The Republicans have capitulated on the U.S. debt ceiling. This averts the risk of abrupt fiscal tightening in a slowing economy that has yet to digest the most aggressive monetary squeeze in over 40 years.
The putative accord between the White House and Congress does not even try to address the larger threat to America’s economic model and hegemonic status.
The Congressional Budget Office says the U.S. is on course for fiscal deficits of 7% of GDP as far as the eye can see.
Sacred entitlements remain untouchable. Middle-class welfare – ie. consumption – will continue to eat up an ever-greater share of the budget. It is this, that is leading to slow fiscal ruin.
The gross debt-to-GDP ratio was 62% in 2007 (IMF data). It will be 122% this year, and 138% by 2028, with no sign of reaching a plateau. By then it will have overtaken Italy.
It is a sobering thought that the US is racking up as much debt-to-GDP accumulation over 20 years as it did over two world wars and the Great Depression combined.
You can blame it on the Lehman crisis and Covid, overlaid with Trump’s unfunded tax cuts and Biden’s unfunded multi-trillion fiscal spree, but behind that lies a structural rot across most of the federal budget.
China’s fiscal deterioration has been just as bad. The difference is that China funds its own borrowing (for now) from high internal savings. Foreigners have some $25 trillion of net debt claims on the US government and US corporations.
America’s net international investment position has gone from near balance a generation ago to minus 62% of GDP. Part of that is the distortion of the strong dollar. A big chunk is not. America is selling the family silver to live. (So is Britain.)
“It is alarming to us, and should be to other investors, too. What is even more alarming is the lack of concern on the part of the U.S. policymakers,” said Stephen Jen from Eurizon SLJ, who advises Asian sovereign wealth funds.
“Foreign investors should not be blamed for starting to wonder if the US Treasuries and the dollar are still safe. We believe the U.S. debt problem will have consequences for the markets in the not-too-distant future,” he said. …
USAGold’s ‘News & Views’ letter summarizes top 10 financial posts for May
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-05-30 11:23Section: Daily Dispatches
11:24a ET Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
USAGold’s top 10 reports and essays about the financial markets and the monetary metals in May are summarized today in the coin and bullion dealer’s monthly ‘News & Views’ letter here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
The farce on the debt ceiling brought to you by Craig Hemke
(Craig Hemke/Sprottt)
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The debt schlemieling
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-05-30 16:10Section: Daily Dispatches
By Craig Hemke Sprott Money, Toronto Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Another deal to extend the debt limit of the U.S. government appears to have been reached. If that’s a surprise to you, then I guess you haven’t been paying attention over the years.
The farce of the “debt ceiling” is simple political theater and nothing more. For decades cynical politicians have used the imagined “catastrophe of default” as a tool to stoke division and score political points, usually just before major elections.
Both sides of The Uniparty will ultimately claim victory, allowing their partisans to rejoice while the public at large gets fleeced. …
More and more nations strive to ditch the USA dollar, realizing that it is killing their financial well being
(Business Daily Africa/Nairobi/GATA)
Kenya’s president revives push by African nations to ditch the dollar
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-05-31 12:06Section: Daily Dispatches
By Constant Munda Business Daily Africa, Nairobi Tuesday, May 30, 2023
President William Ruto has asked African leaders to take first steps toward ditching the globally-bullish U.S. dollar by signing up to a pan-African payments system to facilitate trade within the continent.
Dr. Ruto has urged his peers in Africa to mobilise central and commercial banks to join the Pan-African Payments and Settlement System, (PAPSS) which was launched in January 2022.
The system for intra-African trade was developed by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat. The initiative was backed by the African Union and African central banks.
“We are all struggling to make payments for goods and services from one country to another because of differences in currencies. And in the middle of all these, we are all subjected to a dollar environment,” Dr. Ruto told a forum of government and private-sector officials attending a forum on AfCFTA in Nairobi on Monday.
“There has been a mechanism where all our traders can trade in the local currency and we leave it to the Afreximbank to settle all the payments. We do not have to look for dollars. Our businessmen will concentrate on moving goods and services, and leave the arduous task of currencies to Afreximbank.” …
Will gold rescue Zimbabwe from the ashes of economic despair and usher in a new economic era?
Since Zimbabwe declared independence from the former Republic of Rhodesia in 1980, the southern African country has been ravaged by inflation and overall economic turmoil. Over the past 40 years, the annual inflation rate has only touched single-digit territory twice: 1980 (7 percent) and 1988 (7 percent).
Excessive money printing, fiscal mismanagement, economic sanctions, and currency instability have been the root causes of its perpetual financial crisis, resulting in political and social upheaval.
In 2008, Zimbabwe was given the unfortunate record of the highest inflation rate in the world, touching 250 million percent. This forced then-President Robert Mugabe and his government to abandon the Zimbabwe dollar and begin relying on nine foreign currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar and the South African rand. In 2019, Harare introduced a new Zimbabwean currency, but it did not take long for the revival of hyperinflation, with the inflation rate surpassing 600 percent by March 2020.
After numerous trials and errors on the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) experimented with something old and something new: a gold-backed digital currency.
“Pursuant to the resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (the MPC) on 28 March 2023 to complement the issuance of physical gold coins with gold-backed digital products, the Bank wishes to advise that it will be issuing gold-backed digital tokens with effect from 8 May 2023,” said RBZ Governor John Mangudya in a statement. “The gold-backed tokens will be fully backed by physical gold held by the Bank.”
Central bank officials say this money will be supported by 140 kilograms (4,900 ounces) of gold.
The two-phase implementation began with the RBNZ selling digital tokens to investors for a minimum price of $10 for individuals and $5,000 for businesses and other entities. The transition will then allow consumers to purchase the digital currency from banks and use the tokens to conduct “person-to-person and person-to-business transactions and settlements” by using “e-gold wallets or e-gold cards” held by these financial institutions. Consumers can also rely on virtual tokens to save their money.
The announcement came months after the government allowed gold coins to be used as legal tender, but the decision did not appeal to struggling families because they were too expensive.
Gold bars at Korea Gold Exchange in Seoul, South Korea, on Aug. 6, 2020. (Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters)
A Lack of Trust
But while this policy pursuit might sound like music to the ears of sound money advocates, a chorus of critics contend that this will not achieve the desirable outcome of currency stability.
Some economists have expressed doubt about the efficacy of this project, asserting that this is not a traditional gold standard because the tokens are not convertible to gold bars and coins.
A notable drawback is a paucity of trust in the institutions and officials managing the precious metal, says Aaron Rafferty, CEO of the financial technology firm Standard DAO.
“The critical factor here isn’t gold itself, but rather a reliable, trusted institution to maintain the gold reserves and handle redemption requests,” Rafferty told The Epoch Times. “Any nation considering such a policy will need robust systems to manage these requirements.”
Richard Gardner, the CEO of financial technology company Modulus, says the better option is to re-adopt the greenback.
“There is an easy solution here, and it doesn’t involve a digital currency,” he told The Epoch Times. “Instead, the country should simply take its medicine: re-adopt the US dollar. Not only will this move not be the start of an avalanche effect of similar global efforts, it will almost certainly be a failure.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned against the campaign, warning of the financial stability, governance, operational, and legal risks.
Currency Experiments
Across the global economy, a growing number of countries are experimenting with digital currencies backed by central banks. Some have already launched these virtual currencies, while others are in the trial phase.
Last year, Nigeria released the eNaira, the country’s central bank digital currency (CBDC). However, nearly a year later, the adoption rate has been abysmal, with about 99 percent of digital wallets unused.
“The take-up of the eNaira by households and merchants has been slow,” the IMF said in a recent report assessing the eNaira.
“As indicated by the levels of wallet downloads and transactions, the public adoption of the eNaira thus far has been disappointingly low.”
The Bahamas and Jamaica have released their digital currencies. China, Japan, and Russia are testing the digitization efforts of their currencies. The United States, UK, and the European Union are still in the research phases of their CBDCs.
But Zimbabwe’s endeavor is unique because it is backed by the yellow metal, meaning it is not a digital version of physical fiat currency.
At a time when more central banks are stockpiling gold, experts have speculated that more nations could integrate the commodity with their currencies.
Gold: The New Money
Could Zimbabwe be facilitating a new era of gold-backed money?
At the very least, the development of a gold-supported digital currency comes at a time when there has been a substantial increase in demand for the metal.
In the first quarter, central bank demand for gold reached 228.4 tons, up 176 percent from the same time a year ago, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). This was also higher than the previous first-quarter record established in 2013.
Singapore (69 tons), China (58 tons), Turkey (30 tons), and India (7 tons) were the largest buyers of the metal commodity. Selling was modest, led by Kazakhstan (negative 20 tons), Uzbekistan (negative 15 tons), and Cambodia (negative 10 tons).
“Our broad expectation for central bank demand in 2023 has, so far, been borne out,” the WGC said in its report this month.
“Central bank buying remains robust, with little to indicate that this will change in the short term. As such, we maintain our belief that purchases will continue to outweigh sales as we move into Q2.”
WGC data also confirmed in January that 2022 was a record year for central bank gold demand, soaring more than 1,100 tons worth approximately $70 billion.
Moreover, emerging market countries are poised to surpass their developed market counterparts in gold reserves by 2050 “should they maintain the current pace of acquisition,” noted In Gold We Trust.
Central banks acquire gold for a variety of reasons, including the diversification of reserves, hedging against inflation and currency risks, and bolstering the credibility and confidence of these institutions. But during geopolitical turmoil and a bloc of nations altering the world order, some officials have signaled that gold could play an integral role, particularly as they reduce their exposure to foreign currencies, like the greenback.
Ahead of the annual BRICS Summit in August in South Africa, officials have hinted that the annual meeting will focus on the creation of a new currency that could rival the U.S. dollar or euro, effectively bolstering the global de-dollarization campaign.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told BRICS Business Forum participants last year that the bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) is reviewing the creation of a new international reserve currency based on the basket of currencies of our countries.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in the XIV BRICS summit in virtual format via a video call, in Moscow, on June 23, 2022. (Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)
State Duma (the Russian legislative assembly) deputy chairman Alexander Babakov purported in March at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum event in New Delhi, India, that a currency could be pegged to gold or “other groups of products, rare-earth elements, or soil.”
While a currency supported by commodities is not universally endorsed, it has been championed by several leading economic figures.
Stephen Moore, a bestselling author and economic adviser to former President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign, believes monetary policy could be based on general commodity prices, such as cotton, copper, crude oil, and wheat.
“However, I do not advocate a return to the gold standard today,” the former Fed nominee wrote in a 2019 op-ed.
In a June 2018 paper for the Cato Journal, economist Judy Shelton, who was nominated to the Fed by Trump, wrote, “We make America great again by making America’s money great again.”
She proposed linking the greenback to gold or another commodity instead of just trusting Washington.
“In proposing a new international monetary system linked in some way to gold, America has an opportunity to secure continued prominence in global monetary affairs while also promoting genuine free trade based on a solid monetary foundation,” Shelton wrote.
“Gold has historically provided a common denominator for measuring value; widely accepted at all income levels of society, it is universally acknowledged as a monetary surrogate with intrinsic value.”
At a time when the U.S. government is facing astronomical levels of debt—a $32 trillion national debt and trillion-dollar budget deficits—sound money proponents aver that gold could help restore fiscal discipline.
According to former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, gold limits the amount the government can borrow because it cannot be printed.
“But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government’s promise to pay out of future tax revenues,” Greenspan wrote in a 1966 essay entitled “Gold and Economic Freedom.”
However, critics charge that commodity-backed currencies would pose trouble for governments because they would prevent officials from responding to changes in economic conditions and leave currencies vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations. A dramatic shift might also distort the allocation of resources and cause transactional difficulties for everyday purchases.
A New Monetary Regime
As the international de-dollarization initiative accelerates and more economies attempt to shift away from dollar dependence, there is an expectation that a new monetary regime could be forming. Experts have noted that if the BRICS or individual countries do successfully topple the dollar hegemony, it might not happen for many years. With global debt exceeding $300 trillion, could the world economy afford to dismantle the fiat empire?
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.11116
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1289
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.07 PTS OR 0.00%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 17.36 PTS OR 0.10%
2. Nikkei closed UP 260.13 PTS OR 0.84%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.14 EURO RISES TO 1.0696 UP 3 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.413 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 139.55 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE:DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2815***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.067*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.325…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.735
3j Gold at $1965.00 silver at: 23.45 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 16 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.98//
3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 139.55 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .413% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9103 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9736 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.647 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.847 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.455 UP 7 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 20.80…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.1905 UP 1 BASIS PTS (RATES RISING RAPIDLY)
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Rise After House Passes Debt Deal, Europe Boosted By Weaker Inflation
THURSDAY, JUN 01, 2023 – 08:03 AM
US futures edged higher after the House passed a deal to avert a US default (with more Democrats voting for the “McCarthy” deal than Republicans) and Fed officials hinted at a pause in interest-rate hikes. Globally, the Caixin China PMIs beat expectations (not to be confused with the catastrophic official PMI print) and Euro Area CPI printed dovishly, aiding a global risk-on tone. As of 7:45am ET, S&P 500 futures added 0.2% and were again trading right around 4,200 ironclad resistance, while Nasdaq 100 contracts were 0.1% higher. The Dollar slumped to a three day low as the euro rallied after data showed underlying inflation in the euro zone dipped by more than expected in May, though that may not stop the European Central Bank from raising rates. Treasury yields edged higher, mirroring moves in Europe and the UK. Gold and Bitcoin fell, while oil climbed for the first time in three days. Today’s macro data focus includes ADP, Jobless Claims, ISM-Mfg, and Construction Spending. As the market moves past the debt ceiling, the focus shifts to the Fed and the macro narrative.
In premarket trading, a rally in companies exposed to the development of artificial intelligence-related products continued to cool in US premarket trading. Software maker C3.ai Inc. plunged as much as 22% after a disappointing sales outlook. Nvidia, whose meteoric rise had fueled the rally, was steady after losing some ground on Wednesday. Among other individual movers, Salesforce Inc. slumped abut 6% after it gave a lackluster outlook for future sales. Advance Auto Parts Inc. extended a decline after cutting earnings and sales guidance. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Alteryx rises 5.6% in premarket trading as BofA moves to buy from neutral in note, citing three reasons supporting its upgrade for the software company.
Chewy shares jump 16% in US premarket trading as analysts said the online pet supplies retailer topped expectations across the board, with a beat on its key customer metric the highlight.
Lucid shares drop 8% in US premarket trading, after the electric-vehicle maker said it’s raising about $3 billion in a common stock offering, with the majority of the money coming from its Saudi owners. The fundraising reduces expectations for Lucid to go private anytime soon, Bloomberg Intelligence notes.
Nordstrom shares rallied as much as 7.8% in premarket trading, after the department-store chain reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue and profit. Analysts were optimistic about the improvements at the retailer’s off-price Rack stores.
Okta shares fall as much as 19% in premarket trading on Thursday, after the application software company reported its first- quarter results and analysts noted weakness in the outlook for current remaining-performance obligations (cRPO) as a concern.
Salesforce shares fall as much as 6% in premarket trading, after the software company reported its first-quarter results and gave a forecast showing the company isn’t growing as fast as it used to. Analysts noted, in particular, the slowdown in contracted sales.
Veeva Systems quarterly results beat expectations, with the application software firm’s billings a beat. Notably, analysts said it appears to be navigating well through the macro weakness which had impacted its peers. Veeva shares rose 7.1% in after-hours trading.
Passage of the debt-ceiling deal struck by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden means the bill will be sent to the Senate where it will be promptly signed well before the June 5 default deadline. The signs of optimism were helped along by comments from Fed officials who backed the possibility of holding rates unchanged the next meeting, and some encouraging economic data out of China.
“Finally, some good news is driving today’s optimism,” said Ludovica Scotto di Perta, a structured-product specialist at Swissquote Bank SA. “US raising the debt ceiling and sentiment that the Fed will pause are boosting risk appetite. It might only be temporary but we will take anything at this point.”
“A June swoon may be in the cards as the S&P 500 struggles to clear key resistance at 4,200,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. “While a deal in Washington could be a catalyst for a breakout, overbought conditions in the technology sector and mega-cap space — the primary drivers of this year’s market advance — could make this a high hurdle for the market to clear on a near-term basis, especially without broader participation.”
Meanwhile, hopes for a Fed pause were partly pared back after Wednesday’s JOLTS jobs report for April showed more than 10 million openings, the highest in three months and above consensus estimates. But Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said the central bank is inclined to keep interest rates steady in June to assess the economic outlook. His remarks were echoed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who said, “I think we can take a bit of a skip for a meeting.”
Attention turns next to US jobless claims data due later Thursday, before Friday’s nonfarm payrolls.
European stocks rose amid a wider risk-on sentiment after the House passed debt limit deal, and were on course to snap a three-day losing streak after US lawmakers took a step closer to averting a default. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.7% with media, banks and carmakers among the leading performers as data showed euro-area inflation slowed more than analysts’ estimates in May. Adnoc Logistics & Services, the maritime logistics unit of Abu Dhabi’s main energy company, soared as much as 52% on its debut after a hugely oversubscribed initial public offering. Airbus SE gained after Reuters reported a rise in aircraft deliveries. Here are the most notable European movers:
Neste shares gain as much as 4.4% after being raised to buy from neutral at UBS, with the broker more optimistic on the outlook for renewable fuel products beyond the key Swedish market
Recordati gains as much as 5% and leads gains on Italy’s FTSE MIB benchmark, after Equita added the Italian drugmaker to its best picks selection, citing better-than-expected 1Q results
Johnson Matthey rises as much as 2.1% after Bloomberg reported the British industrial conglomerate is planning the sale of its medical device components business
Wolters Kluwer rises as much as 4.1%, after BNP Paribas Exane raises its recommendation to outperform, seeing professional information providers such as Wolter Kluweras potential AI winners
Lonza gains 1.6%, after the drug-ingredient supplier announced its acquisition of early stage biotech Synaffix. Morgan Stanley welcomes the move, saying it gains access to ADC technology
ITM Power rises as much as 4.4%, after the clean-fuel firm said it is making good progress against its 12-month plan, with net cash set to be ahead of guidance and the adjusted Ebitda loss within
Remy Cointreau trades flat, having initially jumped as much as 6%, after the French distiller reported FY current operating income that beat estimates
Dr. Martens slumps 14% at the open after the bootmaker’s FY profit missed expectations. Morgan Stanley analysts called the sales forecast “ambitious,” while RBC sees double-digit downgrades ahead
Auto Trader shares slip as much as 2.5%, with analysts predicting limited changes to consensus estimates following results and guidance that largely matched expectations
Pennon shares fall as much as 2.3% as worries over the ongoing Ofwat investigation into sewage pollution overshadow the utility’s EPS beat, with Jefferies flagging lack of detail in the guidance
Earlier in the session, most Asian benchmarks rose, though gains in Chinese stocks faded as investors studied mixed readings on the country’s manufacturing activity. Caixin manufacturing data for May showed an expansion, exceeding forecasts for a small contraction. The numbers followed official figures Wednesday that showed a further contraction in activity.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. shrugged off the early indecision and were boosted after the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data partially atoned for yesterday’s weak official PMI readings.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was marginally supported by data releases including business capex which grew at its fastest pace since Q3 2016 and with Japanese firms logging their largest recurring profits for Q1.
Australia’s ASX 200 was choppy in early trade but ultimately gained after stronger-than-expected capital expenditure and the improvement in Chinese Caixin PMI.
Key stock gauges in India fell for a second day, led by losses in financial services and communication companies. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 62,428.54 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.3% to 18,487.75. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index climbed 0.4% for the day. Nifty Financial Services and Nifty Bank index were the worst performing sectoral indexes falling 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 18 rose, while 12 fell.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat while the Swiss franc has outperformed its G-10 peers slightly. The Norwegian krone is the worst performer, falling 0.8% versus the greenback. Crude futures decline with WTI falling 0.3% to trade near $67.90. Spot gold falls 0.2% to around $1,958. Bitcoin drops 0.7%. The euro rallied against the dollar after data showed underlying inflation in the euro zone dipped by more than expected in May, though that may not stop the European Central Bank from raising rates. European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said the bank won’t contemplate lowering borrowing costs before core consumer-price growth slows in a continuous manner.
In rates, treasuries are lower with US 10-year yields rising 3bps, while two-year borrowing costs climb 4bps as stock futures partly bounce from Wednesday’s drop. 2s10s, 5s30s spreads are flatter by 1bp and 1.8bp on the day while 10-year yields are around 3.67%, cheaper by 2.5bp and lagging bunds and gilts by 0.5bp and 1.5bp in the sector. Bunds and gilts are also in the red with the former showing little reaction to data showing a larger than expected slowdown in euro-area inflation. US session focus turns to data, including ADP employment, jobless claims and ISM manufacturing. Fed’s Harker also due to speak after urging a June pause Wednesday.
In commodities, WTI futures lower by 0.75% on the day. Industrial metals climbed from six-month lows, led by copper and nickel. China’s sluggish economy has been a key driver of weakness demand for raw materials.
Bitcoin is softer on the session, though only incrementally so, and remains in close proximity to the USD 27k mark which itself is towards the mid-point of sub-1k parameters.
To the day ahead now, and the data highlights include the flash CPI release from the Euro Area for May, as well as the unemployment rate for April. Otherwise in the US, there’s the ISM manufacturing release for May, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for May, and the weekly initial jobless claims. In addition, there’s the global manufacturing PMIs for May, along with April data on German retail sales and UK mortgage approvals. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Knot and Villeroy, as well as the Fed’s Harker. The ECB will also be releasing the account of their May meeting.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,197.25
MXAP up 0.3% to 158.90
MXAPJ little changed at 501.17
Nikkei up 0.8% to 31,148.01
Topix up 0.9% to 2,149.29
Hang Seng Index little changed at 18,216.91
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,204.64
Sensex little changed at 62,620.45
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,110.81
Kospi down 0.3% to 2,569.17
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 455.89
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.30%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0675
Brent Futures up 0.3% to $72.81/bbl
Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,955.07
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 104.39
Top Overnight News
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for May came in at 50.9, up from 49.5 in April and ahead of the Street’s 49.5 forecast. RTRS
China has only modestly expanded its energy ties w/Russia, suggesting Xi is cautious about embracing Moscow as Putin becomes a larger int’l pariah. SCMP
The ECB has gone through most of its monetary policy tightening to bring inflation back to its medium-term target of 2%, though the cycle is not quite over yet, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday. RTRS
The head of UK chip designer Arm met Chinese officials in Beijing on Monday as the group sought to resolve issues over its plan to sell shares in New York. While Arm has tried to wash its hands of its problematic Chinese joint venture, Beijing has so far refused to process paperwork confirming the transfer of its stake to owner SoftBank. FT
A rare ECB warning about the bond market risk of a Bank of Japan policy change comes at a time when Japanese outflows from the region are already at record levels. Investors from the Asian nation offloaded 5.4 trillion yen ($38.7 billion) of European bonds in 2022, the most according to Bloomberg-compiled data going back to 2005. While Japanese funds have been net buyers so far this year, they’ve spent a mere 81 billion yen on purchases — the lowest amount for a first quarter in six years. BBG
Eurozone CPI for May undershot the Street, coming in at +6.1% Y/Y on the headline (down from +7% in April and below the Street’s +6.3% forecast) and +5.3% core (down from +5.6% in April and below the Street’s +5.5% forecast). BBG
The debt ceiling bill passed the House by an overwhelming amount Wed night (the final vote was 314-117, including 149-71 for Republicans and 165-46 for Democrats). NYT
Federal Reserve officials signaled they are increasingly likely to hold interest rates steady at their June meeting before preparing to raise them again later this summer.
WSJ
US crude stockpiles rebounded 5.2 million barrels last week after a big drop in the prior period, the API is said to have reported. Stocks at Cushing rose for a sixth week. More oil: OPEC+ faces a divided market when it meets this weekend. The group has never cut within three months of similar action. BBG
Overseas sales of U.S. oil and refined products have surged. Exports of crude have jumped twelve-fold since December 2015, when Washington nixed crude-export restrictions…(WSJ)
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive after the US House passed the debt ceiling bill to avert a default which now moves to the Senate and with sentiment helped by the surprise expansion in Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. ASX 200 was choppy in early trade but ultimately gained after stronger-than-expected capital expenditure and the improvement in Chinese Caixin PMI. Nikkei 225 was marginally supported by data releases including business capex which grew at its fastest pace since Q3 2016 and with Japanese firms logging their largest recurring profits for Q1. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. shrugged off the early indecision and were boosted after the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data partially atoned for yesterday’s weak official PMI readings.
Top Asian News
US official said fewer US companies are applying to export sensitive tech to China amid growing government scrutiny of the flow of goods to the country, especially those with potential military applications, according to WSJ.
Taiwan’s government said it expects to sign the first deal under the new trade talks framework with the US on Thursday, according to Reuters.
European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%, as sentiment continues to improve after the US House vote and strong Chinese Caixin PMI. Note, limited sustained reaction was seen following the EZ Flash PMIs given they very much chime with the skew from the regional metrics released in recent sessions. Sectors are predominantly firmer with Energy outperforming after recent marked pressure while Real Estate names lag across the region. Stateside, futures are essentially flat as we await the debt ceiling’s progression into the Senate and particularly the prospect of amendments sending it back to the House, ES +0.2%. Nvidia (NVDA) CEO is to meet TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) and Foxconn (2354 TT) executives on Friday; adds that TSMC has immense capacity and incredible agility.
Top European News
ECB’s Lagarde says today inflation is too high and is set to remain so for too long; we will keep moving forward – determined and undeterred – until we see inflation returning to our 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. Speech published after the EZ CPI print.
ECB’s Rehn says core inflation must slow for the ECB to consider easing. Monetary policy journey has not concluded yet. Remarks made before the EZ CPI print
ECB’s de Guindos says recent data on inflation are positive, still far from the inflation target. Still someway to go on rates Remarks made before the EZ CPI print
ECB’s Knot says there is a need to reconsider which banks should be considered systemic, time to reconsider liquidity buffers after the SVB collapse.
BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – May 2023: 1-year ahead CPI inflation expectations ticked up to 5.9%, up from 5.6% in April.
FX
Buck bases after downside in wake of Fed’s Harker and Jefferson backing June FOMC rate skip, DXY sits tight within 104.150-500 confines ahead of more NFP proxies, final US manufacturing PMI and ISM.
Yen retreats towards 140.00 vs Dollar as UST-JGB differentials widen.
Euro capped just shy of 1.0700 and raft of upside option expiries against the Greenback amidst mixed EZ data and manufacturing PMIs.
Aussie underpinned around 0.6500 vs Buck after stronger than expected Capex, but Yuan remains week sub-7.1000 on US-China angst rather than 50+ Caixin Chinese PMI.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0965 vs exp. 7.0964 (prev. 7.0821)
Fixed Income
Bonds retreat after pre-month end squeeze awaiting Senate debt ceiling passage, a busy June 1st US agenda and NFP on Friday.
Bunds, Gilts and T-note are all underwater within 136.17-135.60, 96.74-34 and 114-16/01 respective ranges.
French OATs and Spanish Bonos soft in the wake of multi-tranche issuance.
Commodities
WTI and Brent are incrementally firmer though off earlier best levels which occurred around the Chinese Caixin PMI overnight; since, specifics have been limited as we approach the weekend OPEC+ gathering and after multiple sessions of pronounced pressure.
Industrial metals benefit from the mentioned Chinese data while spot gold is little changed but has been on a slight upward trajectory towards the neutral mark in recent trade.
Russian plans to halve subsidies for oil refiners may be postponed until September, according to Interfax citing sources. However, the Russian Finance Ministry said no final decision on oil and gas sector subsidies has been taken yet.
Geopolitics
US Defence Secretary Austin told Japanese Defence Minister Hamada that he looks forward to deeper cooperation between the US-Japan alliance and with South Korea and Australia, while he stated that North Korea’s launch was dangerous, destabilising and violates international law, according to Reuters.
North Korean leader Kim’s sister said no one can deny their right to launch a satellite and vowed to ramp up military surveillance efforts, while she added that North Korea’s spy satellite will soon enter orbit to perform its mission and that North Korea will do everything to enhance its war deterrence. Kim also stated that North Korea should work harder to develop reconnaissance tools and the Foreign Ministry urged the US to halt joint military drills, according to KCNA.
NATO SecGen Stoltenberg says all allies agree that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance and that Russia does not have a veto on enlargement. Will speak with Turkey soon about Sweden’s accession.
US Event Calendar
07:30: May Challenger Job Cuts 287%, YoY, prior 175.9%
08:15: May ADP Employment Change, est. 170,000, prior 296,000
08:30: 1Q Unit Labor Costs, est. 6.0%, prior 6.3%
1Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. -2.4%, prior -2.7%
08:30: May Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 229,000
May Continuing Claims, est. 1.8m, prior 1.79m
09:45: May S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 48.5, prior 48.5
10:00: May ISM Manufacturing, est. 47.0, prior 47.1
10:00: April Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to June and another day I feel blessed that I have a job as half term sees the family going to a heaving Harry Potter World today. I’ve tried to read the first book three times and the movies several times more. I don’t see what all the fuss is about. My wife and the three kids on the other hand are obsessed. So it’s a good division of time today. Back here in Muggle Land, since it’s the start of the month, we’ll shortly be releasing our monthly performance review of how different assets fared in May. Overall it was an eventful time, starting off with the closure of First Republic Bank and renewed concerns about financial turmoil. We then had another set of rate hikes from the Fed and ECB, negotiations around the US debt ceiling, serious excitement about AI, along with some increasingly downbeat data releases outside the US. With all said and done, that left most assets negative for the month, with losses across equities, bonds and commodities, despite a few key outperformers like tech stocks. See the full review in your inboxes shortly.
The main news last night came from the House of Representatives, which voted 314-117 in favour of sending the debt ceiling bill over to the Senate. The bill as currently written would suspend the debt ceiling until January 1 2025, with federal spending capped until 2025. In terms of timing for the Senate vote, Senator Thune noted that the deal could pass the upper chamber by Friday night. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that spending will have to reduce $64 billion in the next budget, as both parties still have to negotiate a separate spending package by the end of September.
That vote in the House took place after US markets had closed, as a downbeat risk session helped the S&P 500 shed -0.61%. Those losses were driven by several factors, but the biggest was a succession of data releases that all raised fears of an upcoming recession. For instance in the US, the MNI Chicago PMI for May came in beneath every economists’ expectation at 40.4 (vs. 47.3 expected), and that followed on the heels of the weaker-than-expected China PMIs earlier. As we’ll see later the Caixin PMI this morning actually unexpectedly rose so a complicated picture is emerging.
The complications were present yesterday as well as the JOLTS job openings report for April, contained more bad news from the Fed’s perspective. The main headline was a big increase in job openings, which unexpectedly rose to a three-month high of 10.103m (vs. 9.4m expected), and the previous month’s openings were revised up as well. In turn, this meant that the ratio of vacancies per unemployed people went back up to 1.79, having been at a 16-month low the month before. So that’s further evidence that the US labour market remains very tight by historic standards.
The release meant that investors initially dialled up the chances of another rate hike from the Fed in two weeks, with fed futures pricing in a 70% chance of a hike shortly after the JOLTS release. However comments from policy voters Philadelphia Fed President Harker and Fed Governor Jefferson – who recently was nominated to be Fed vice chair – caused investors to cut their bets for a rate hike this month down to a 33% chance from 59% the day before. That is the lowest chances since May 25. Governor Jefferson noted that, “skipping a rate hike at a coming meeting would allow the Committee to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy firming.” President Harker noted that he was “definitely in the camp of thinking about skipping any increase at this meeting,” before adding that “If we’re going to go into a period where we need to do more tightening, we can do that every other meeting.” Investors still expect another rate hike this cycle as fed futures are pricing in a 83% chance of a rate hike through the July meeting, but after the comments yesterday it is clear that there is more weight on July over June. Treasuries rallied with 10yr yields down -4.4bps, as investors focused on the more negative longer-term outlook, which was seen as raising the likelihood of rate cuts further out. This morning in Asia 10yr yields (+2.29 bps) have reversed around half of yesterday’s gains, trading at 3.67% as we go to print.
Outside of the Fed-speak yesterday there was also the release of the Fed’s Beige book which indicated that while the economy was indeed slowing as hiring and inflation eased, there was still signs that the economy remained too hot. The Fed’s report said that while employment increased in most districts, it was “at a slower pace than in previous reports.” Similarly, the report noted “prices rose moderately over the reporting period, though the rate of increase slowed in many districts.” The Fed’s report also pointed to growing divides as “high inflation and the end of Covid-19 benefits continued to stress the budgets of low- and moderate-income households, driving increased demand for social services, including food and housing”. All together the report based on anecdotal data from the 12 regional banks seems in-line with the broader economic data that shows while the economy is slowing at the margins, inflation appears to be settling above the Fed’s target with core services inflation the root cause.
Overall sentiment landed on the negative side with equities and other risk assets like HY credit and oil struggling. For instance, the S&P 500 (-0.61%) posted its biggest decline in a week as the more cyclical sectors led the decline and defensives like telecoms (+1.5%), utilities (+1.0%), and healthcare (+0.9%) rallied. Over in Europe, the losses were more severe and the STOXX 600 (-1.07%) closed at a 2-month low, with others including the DAX (-1.54%) and the FTSE MIB (-1.97%) losing significant ground as well. Even tech stocks (one of the few to post gains in May) pared back some of their recent advance, with the NASDAQ (-0.63%), FANG+ (-0.92%), and the Philadelphia Semiconductor (-2.71%) indices all lower. Even Nvidia fell -5.7%, it’s biggest fall since January 30th.
Whilst European equities were a significant underperformer, there was a major rally among their sovereign bonds after the German and French CPI prints came in beneath expectations. In Germany, CPI fell to +6.3% in May using the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +6.7% expected), which was the lowest since February 2022. And in France, it fell to +6.0% (vs. +6.4% expected), which was the lowest since May 2022. That raised hopes for the Euro Area-wide print that’s out today, and yields on 10yr bunds (-6.0bps), OATs (-5.8bps) and BTPs (-7.0bps) all moved lower on the day. The only exception to this inflation pattern was in Italy, where CPI only fell back to +8.1% (vs. +7.5% expected).
With those inflation prints in hand, investors moved to slightly dial back the amount of rate hikes expected over the coming months. Significantly, overnight index swaps are now pricing in slightly fewer than 50bps more hikes, suggesting at least some doubt about whether the ECB will go on to deliver a move beyond the one that’s widely anticipated in two weeks from now. In the meantime, there were also some fresh tailwinds on inflation from commodity prices, with Brent crude oil (-1.20%) losing further ground to close at $72.66/bbl.
Asian equity markets are broadly trading higher this morning after the debt ceiling bill was cleared in the US House of Representatives and on better China data (see below). Risk appetite across the region has solidified with the Hang Seng (+1.02%) leading gains and rebounding from near a six-month low on expectations of a Chinese stimulus to revive growth. Stocks in mainland China are also trading in the green with the CSI (+0.64%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.37%) nudging higher. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.29%) held on to its gains while the KOSPI (-0.22%) is slightly down so far in the session. In overnight trading, US equity futures are fluctuating with those on the S&P 500 (+0.04%) just above flat while those tied to the NASDAQ 100 (-0.15%) are inching lower.
Early morning data showed that China’s factory activity bounced back to expansionary territory in May as the latest Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April, contradicting the official PMI data yesterday that showed further deterioration in factory activity for May. Separately in Japan, factory activity expanded for the first time since October 2022 after the final estimate of the au Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI stood at 50.6 in May from the prior month’s reading of 49.5.
Wrapping up the data over the last 24 hours and another release yesterday came from Germany, where unemployment rose by +9k in May (vs. +13.5k expected). That left the unemployment rate at 5.6% as expected. Elsewhere, Italy’s economy grew by more than expected in Q1, with the latest estimate revised up a tenth from the initial reading to +0.6%.
To the day ahead now, and the data highlights include the flash CPI release from the Euro Area for May, as well as the unemployment rate for April. Otherwise in the US, there’s the ISM manufacturing release for May, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for May, and the weekly initial jobless claims. In addition, there’s the global manufacturing PMIs for May, along with April data on German retail sales and UK mortgage approvals. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Knot and Villeroy, as well as the Fed’s Harker. The ECB will also be releasing the account of their May meeting.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Sentiment supported by Chinese PMI, but capped somewhat as Senate passage looms – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, JUN 01, 2023 – 06:29 AM
European bourses are firmer as sentiment improves after the US House vote & Chinese Caixin PMI
Stateside, futures are more contained as debt focus turns to the Senate and potential amendment votes
DXY subdued after Wednesday’s Fed remarks with attention turning to US data before Friday’s NFP
Flash EZ HICP spurred little sustained reaction, as it chimes with regionals; debt benchmarks dip after month-end
Commodities are generally firmer given the Chinese data though crude has pared much of this since
Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Challenger Layoffs, ADP, IJC, Manufacturing PMI. ECB Minutes. Remarks from Fed’s Harker & ECB’s Enria.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US DEBT CEILING
US House voted 314-117 to pass the debt ceiling bill which sends the measure to the Senate.
“Senate Minority Whip John Thune told (Punchbowl) that he’d heard from at least a dozen GOP offices seeking amendment votes, and some Democrats are interested in amendments as well.”, according to Punchbowl.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%, as sentiment continues to improve after the US House vote and strong Chinese Caixin PMI.
Note, limited sustained reaction was seen following the EZ Flash PMIs given they very much chime with the skew from the regional metrics released in recent sessions.
Sectors are predominantly firmer with Energy outperforming after recent marked pressure while Real Estate names lag across the region.
Stateside, futures are essentially flat as we await the debt ceiling’s progression into the Senate and particularly the prospect of amendments sending it back to the House, ES +0.2%.
Nvidia (NVDA) CEO is to meet TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) and Foxconn (2354 TT) executives on Friday; adds that TSMC has immense capacity and incredible agility.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European updates.
Buck bases after downside in wake of Fed’s Harker and Jefferson backing June FOMC rate skip, DXY sits tight within 104.150-500 confines ahead of more NFP proxies, final US manufacturing PMI and ISM.
Yen retreats towards 140.00 vs Dollar as UST-JGB differentials widen.
Euro capped just shy of 1.0700 and raft of upside option expiries against the Greenback amidst mixed EZ data and manufacturing PMIs.
Aussie underpinned around 0.6500 vs Buck after stronger than expected Capex, but Yuan remains week sub-7.1000 on US-China angst rather than 50+ Caixin Chinese PMI.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0965 vs exp. 7.0964 (prev. 7.0821)
WTI and Brent are incrementally firmer though off earlier best levels which occurred around the Chinese Caixin PMI overnight; since, specifics have been limited as we approach the weekend OPEC+ gathering and after multiple sessions of pronounced pressure.
Industrial metals benefit from the mentioned Chinese data while spot gold is little changed but has been on a slight upward trajectory towards the neutral mark in recent trade.
Russian plans to halve subsidies for oil refiners may be postponed until September, according to Interfax citing sources. However, the Russian Finance Ministry said no final decision on oil and gas sector subsidies has been taken yet.
ECB’s Lagarde says today inflation is too high and is set to remain so for too long; we will keep moving forward – determined and undeterred – until we see inflation returning to our 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. Speech published after the EZ CPI print.
ECB’s Rehn says core inflation must slow for the ECB to consider easing. Monetary policy journey has not concluded yet. Remarks made before the EZ CPI print
ECB’s de Guindos says recent data on inflation are positive, still far from the inflation target. Still someway to go on ratesRemarks made before the EZ CPI print
ECB’s Knot says there is a need to reconsider which banks should be considered systemic, time to reconsider liquidity buffers after the SVB collapse.
BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – May 2023: 1-year ahead CPI inflation expectations ticked up to 5.9%, up from 5.6% in April.
DATA RECAP
EU HICP Flash YY (May) 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 7.0%); X Food & Energy Flash YY (May) 6.9% (Prev. 7.3%); X Food, Energy, Alcohol & Tobacco Flash YY (May) 5.3% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 5.6%)
Netherlands CPI EU Harmonised Y/Y (May P) 6.8% vs Exp. 6.1% (Prev. 5.8%)
UK Nationwide House Price YY (May) -3.4% vs. Exp. -3.7% (Prev. -2.7%); MM -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.4%)
UK Mortgage Approvals (Apr) 48.69k vs. Exp. 53.000k (Prev. 52.011k); Mortgage Lending (Apr) -1.384B vs. Exp. 0.300B (Prev. 0.018B)
German Retail Sales YY Real (Apr) -4.3% vs. Exp. -5.0% (Prev. -8.6%); MM Real (Apr) 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -2.4%)
EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (May) 44.8 vs. Exp. 44.6 (Prev. 44.6)
UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (May) 47.1 vs. Exp. 46.9 (Prev. 46.9)
US Defence Secretary Austin told Japanese Defence Minister Hamada that he looks forward to deeper cooperation between the US-Japan alliance and with South Korea and Australia, while he stated that North Korea’s launch was dangerous, destabilising and violates international law, according to Reuters.
North Korean leader Kim’s sister said no one can deny their right to launch a satellite and vowed to ramp up military surveillance efforts, while she added that North Korea’s spy satellite will soon enter orbit to perform its mission and that North Korea will do everything to enhance its war deterrence. Kim also stated that North Korea should work harder to develop reconnaissance tools and the Foreign Ministry urged the US to halt joint military drills, according to KCNA.
NATO SecGen Stoltenberg says all allies agree that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance and that Russia does not have a veto on enlargement. Will speak with Turkey soon about Sweden’s accession.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is softer on the session, though only incrementally so, and remains in close proximity to the USD 27k mark which itself is towards the mid-point of sub-1k parameters.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly positive after the US House passed the debt ceiling bill to avert a default which now moves to the Senate and with sentiment helped by the surprise expansion in Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
ASX 200 was choppy in early trade but ultimately gained after stronger-than-expected capital expenditure and the improvement in Chinese Caixin PMI.
Nikkei 225 was marginally supported by data releases including business capex which grew at its fastest pace since Q3 2016 and with Japanese firms logging their largest recurring profits for Q1.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. shrugged off the early indecision and were boosted after the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data partially atoned for yesterday’s weak official PMI readings.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
US official said fewer US companies are applying to export sensitive tech to China amid growing government scrutiny of the flow of goods to the country, especially those with potential military applications, according to WSJ.
Taiwan’s government said it expects to sign the first deal under the new trade talks framework with the US on Thursday, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (May) 50.9 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.5)
Japanese Company Profits YY (Q1) 4.3% (Prev. -2.8%); Business Capex YY (Q1) 11.0% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 7.7%)
Australian Capital Expenditure (Q1) 2.4% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 2.2%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.07 PTS OR 0.00% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 17.36 PTS OR 0.10% /The Nikkei closed UP 260.13 OR 0.84% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.24 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1116 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1289 /Oil UP TO 67.95 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 72.66 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
China now awaits badly needed stimulus
(zerohedge)
Bad News Is Now Good News In China As Market Awaits Stimulus
WEDNESDAY, MAY 31, 2023 – 09:25 PM
By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist
China’s May PMI survey flashed the latest warning of mounting economic trouble, prompting investors to eagerly weigh the odds of more stimulus out of Beijing. Onshore equities have already relinquished the vast majority of their post-reopening gains, adding pressure on policymakers to move fast and aggressively to promote growth.
The yuan, stocks and commodity prices have fallen since late April, a reflection of China’s pessimistic economic prospects, Shao Xiang and Tao Chuan at Soochow Securities wrote in their WeChat public account on Wednesday. History suggests monetary policy rarely “stands idly by” once manufacturing PMI stays below the 50 threshold for two or more straight months, they pointed out.
The PBOC took actions in 2019, 2021 and 2022 when the factory gauge worsened — including reductions to the Required Reserve Ratio (RRR), the Medium-term Lending Facilities (MLF) rate and Loan Prime Rate (LPR). These actions occurred either during the same month or one to two months after the data was out, the Soochow analysts noted.
The PMI data confirmed China’s post-Covid recovery is “far from a self-sustained one, due to a lack of confidence among corporates and households,” according to Macquarie analysts Larry Hu and Yuxiao Zhang. “Now policy is the only game changer,” they said in a research report on Wednesday.
Beijing will either need to get its stimulus package in shape in the coming weeks or risk a sharp year-over-year downturn in the next quarter, according to Evercore ISI. The lockdown of Shanghai, which took place between April and May of 2022, weighed heavily on the Chinese economy and the low base of comparison suggests 2Q GDP will “look great” in year-over-year terms despite ongoing headwinds, analysts Neo Wang and Gin Wang noted.
Consensus forecast puts the pace of expansion at 7.8% year-over-year in 2Q and 5.1% in 3Q, according to a Bloomberg survey. Evercore ISI believes “it makes more sense to announce stimulus taking effects when 3Q arrives,” while Macquarie sees an “RRR cut, acceleration in infrastructure spending and more relaxation in property policy” in the weeks ahead.
Still, whether PBOC will cut MLF or LPR remains a close call given the expectations for another Fed hike in June, Macquarie cautions. More data deterioration may be needed before Beijing makes up its mind.
END
Five commodities signaling China’s recovery is faltering
(zerohedge)
These Five Niche Commodities Signal China’s Recovery Faltering
WEDNESDAY, MAY 31, 2023 – 08:25 PM
China’s economic recovery from draconian zero-Covid controls is faltering. Investors had very high hopes earlier this year that the world’s second-largest economy would roar back to life and help offset weakness in the global economy. However, six months later, those same hopes have faded into disappointment.
One of the most immediate warning signs investors are losing faith in the recovery narrative is the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell into bear market territory Tuesday, down about 20% from its Jan. 27 peak.
While equities are important to track, we shift attention to sliding commodity prices that might give further input about China’s economic growth miracle seen over the last several decades, which has yet to reemerge and ignite a spark. Maybe that’s because of an aging population or declining workforce or supply chain reset, or enormous debt loads — whatever is hobbling China’s recovery effort might indicate the days of expanding at 6% to 8% a year are over and only 2% or 3% is the new normal.
On the commodity front, two of the most important commodities to China’s economy, copper and iron ore, have been moving lower over the last several months. But five often overlooked commodities essential for economic growth send chilling signs of economic alarm.
“Futures markets for items as diverse as glass, styrene and corn starch are piling on the evidence that China isn’t recovering as fast as many people had hoped, after Beijing abandoned the pandemic restrictions late last year that were crushing its economy,” Bloomberg said.
Glass
China accounts for more than half of the world’s plate glass production thanks to the rapid growth of high-rise buildings and vehicle sales in recent decades. Similar to other industries, low margins and supply gluts have troubled producers for years, forcing them to cut output in recent months.
The situation this year looks even more challenging. Glass futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have plunged nearly 20% in the past month, a period when demand usually picks up. The reasons include China’s teetering property market and weaker-than-expected vehicle output in April.
Trucked LNG
China has a vast requirement for natural gas, carried by sea from mega-projects in far-flung places like Qatar and Australia, or over pipelines that stretch across continental Asia. But the last few miles to consumers is often via trucks that criss-cross China’s cities, a barometer of the immediate needs of industries from glass-makers to ceramic factories.
That price has fallen to its lowest level in almost two years. Demand is so weak that the nation’s top importers of seaborne liquefied natural gas are even offering to resell their shipments abroad.
Styrene
Fewer home buyers also means less demand for the purchases that often accompany a new place to live. The price of styrene monomer, a material used for the plastics and rubber that go into appliances like fridges, has declined. China has been the world’s fastest growing market in the past decade with capacity climbing to over 40% of the global total.
Dalian futures fell last week to their lowest since February 2021, after a near-5% drop in home appliance sales in the first quarter, according to the National Appliance Information Center. The problems are slower growth in personal incomes and a “low-frequency sales cycle” for white goods, according to Wu Haitao, a director at the center.
Corn Starch
Corn starch has a wide variety of uses, in soft drinks, as a thickening agent for sauces and in the paper and textiles industries. China produces almost 50 million tons a year.
Although retail sales have outperformed other economic measurements in the months since China’s Covid Zero restrictions were lifted, they grew at a slower pace than expected in April. China’s falling population is another headwind: corn starch is a key ingredient in baby formula.
Paper Pulp
Shanghai pulp futures went into free-fall in February after a sudden recovery in production at paper mills after the Lunar New Year holiday was augmented by resurgent imports. Domestic demand, which was also supposed to rise after China’s reopening, couldn’t keep up.
As with many commodities, China is the biggest producer and consumer of pulp, used for packaging, publishing and household goods. But the market is so vast that a lot of pulp and paper also needs to be sourced from abroad.
The faltering recovery led to China’s central bank announcing an unexpected cut in mid-May to the amount banks set aside for deposits by 25 basis points, vowing to keep ample liquidity in the interbank system and better fund the real economy.
So the question remains: What’s next for the global economy if China’s highly anticipated economic rebound doesn’t materialize?
END
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
Inflation is cooling in the Euro area much greater than expected due to their economies collapsing
(zerohedge)
Euro Area Inflation Cooler Than Expected, Lagarde Shrugs Off Dovishness
THURSDAY, JUN 01, 2023 – 08:15 AM
Following yesterday’s German CPI slump, the flash inflation release for May shows Euro area core HICP inflation fell 26bps to 5.34% YoY, below consensus expectations of 5.5%.
The headline gauge moderated more markedly, easing to 6.1% – its lowest level in more than a year – driven primarily by lower energy costs.
While seemingly positive at first glance for policymakers and politicians, the core measure’s ‘stickiness’ means ECB officials plan to extend their unprecedented tightening campaign in two weeks’ time – despite Germany recently slipping into a recession and financial dangers still swirling.
“There is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked,” Lagarde said in a speech in Hanover, Germany.
“We have made clear that we still have ground to cover to bring interest rates to sufficiently restrictive levels.”
The market did not flinch with regard to ECB rate-hike expectations with a 25bps hike fully priced for June and a 40% chance of another 25bps hike in July.
“Yes, headline inflation is coming down as we start to see the food and energy shocks dissipate,” Laura Cooper, Blackrock senior macro strategist for ishares EMEA, told Bloomberg Television earlier this week.
“But clearly the services inflation, the core gauges, continue to show price persistence and that does suggest that the ECB will have to keep rates in restrictive territory for quite some time,” she said.
The euro rallied, erasing the Germany CPI drop…
Source: Bloomberg
While the internal details will be released on June 16, Goldman estimates that within core inflation, seasonally adjusted sequential core goods inflation rose slightly in April, but sequential services inflation declined sharply in May, likely due to the introduction of Germany’s EUR49 public transport ticket.
The ECB, meanwhile, warned this week that tighter policy leaves financial markets at risk of negative shocks and are testing the resilience of households, companies, governments and the real-estate sector.
END
IRELAND
Robert Hryniak
to
Dumb.
Ireland: 200,000 cows to be culled in order to meet climate targets They want us all cold and starving so that they can have complete control over us.https://t.co/CaITfgvWuM
— Tess Summers 🏴🇮🇪 (@tesssummers98) May 30, 2023
Tess Summers on Twitter: “Ireland: 200,000 cows to be culled in order to meet climate targets They want us all cold and starving so that they can have complete control over us. https://t.co/CaITfgvWuM” / Twitter
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE//RUSSIA/USA
Listen to Robert Kennedy as he understands fully the stupidity of the war in the Ukraine
(zerohedge)
RFK Jr Calls For “Mature Conversation” On Ukraine As Admin Is “Lying To Us”
WEDNESDAY, MAY 31, 2023 – 05:45 PM
2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has once again blasted the United States government for lying to the public and to the world about Ukraine, while calling out the Military Industrial Complex in particular.
It’s not the first time. Earlier this month an avalanche of mainstream media headlines condemned his take when he told UnHerd the following: “We should have listened to Putin over many years. We made a commitment to Russia, to Gorbachev, that we would not move NATO one inch to the east. Then we went in, and we lied.”
More recent speaking engagements wherein he utters unpopular truths on Ukraine have gone viral this week. In one of them, he tells an audience at a campaign event, “Our government is lying to us about it. The media is going on with the lie…It’s a laundering operation for the Military Industrial Complex.”
Among Kennedy’s chief talking points is that the country needs a “mature conversation” on the conflict, but that the American public is not getting that.
Interestingly, he said that while many Americans are moved by compassion for the Ukrainian people, including his son who actually early on went to fight within Ukraine’s foreign legion, Washington has been deceptive in selling Americans on the billions in defense aid poured into the conflict.
“We were told that the reason we were going over there is because it was a humanitarian mission,” RFK Jr said. “But then every choice that we made along the way, that’s been about prolonging the war and increasing the bloodshed, and refusing to negotiate. If it was a humanitarian mission we would won’t to terminate the war, to shorten it, and to reduce the amount of bloodshed,” he continued.
He then talked about the “real reason” for escalation of the conflict seen in the rhetoric of Biden and some of his top officials as including regime change against Vladimir Putin, as well as weakening and exhausting Russia’s military in order to prevent its effectiveness in future conflicts elsewhere in the world. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has long been on record as saying this is about ‘weakening’ Russia.
Below is an April speech that included similar statements by Robert F. Kennedy Jr…
“Well as it turns out, opposing Vladmir Putin has been for 20 years the principle focal aspiration of the neocons who were thrown out after the debacle in Iraq. And we thought they were all gone for good, but now they’ve all reemerged in the Biden White House… it’s the opposite of a humanitarian mission.”
He further described Ukraine as a small country which is now tragically being “ground into dust by the geopolitical ambitions of the neocons in the White House.” Ultimately the Ukrainians find themselves stuck in the middle of a proxy war between two rival superpowers, he explained.
Among the more interesting of RFK Jr.’s remarks on the issue…
“If Mexico did that and then started killing – they killed 14,000 Russians in Donbass, the Ukrainian government – if Mexico did that to expatriate Americans, we would invade in a second,” Kennedy said, adding that Putin “repeatedly told us: these are the red lines, you are crossing.”
As expected, mainstream media sources have dismissed him as a “crackpot” for this analysis, including recently in The Daily Beast. At the same time, many such MSM publications are currently dying and struggling for readership when compared to a number of prominent and rising independent outlets.
END
Zelensky Miffed Over NATO Inaction, Demands Membership & Security Guarantees ‘Now’
THURSDAY, JUN 01, 2023 – 03:30 PM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is letting his frustration and impatience over the question of entering the NATO military alliance be known. “Our future is in the European Union. Ukraine is also ready to be part of NATO. We are waiting for NATO to be ready to accept Ukraine,” he said Thursday to journalists just ahead of a summit of the European Political Community in Chisinau, Moldova.
At the summit, he demanded that Ukraine receive security guarantees “now” and emphasized the best way to ensure this is acceptance into NATO. But the idea of ‘security guarantees’ has also long been under discussion, with French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday having explained that the country could be give “something between the security provided to Israel and full-fledged membership.”
Zelensky continued in his address to the Moldova summit, “In Vilnius, a clear invitation to Ukraine is needed” – which is a reference to NATO’s annual summit in Lithuania next month.
“Doubts must vanish. Positive decisions for Ukraine will be positive for everyone,” Zelensky stressed. “There should be no hot war or frozen conflict on our continent,” he added, telling European leaders: “When there are no security guarantees, there are only war guarantees.”
But behind the scenes the Ukrainian leader is reportedly miffed at NATO and European inaction and waffling, and his rhetoric has been more aggressive outside public addresses.
The Financial Times wrote Wednesday, “Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has made clear to Nato leaders that he will not attend the Vilnius summit without concrete security guarantees and a road map for accession, according to people briefed on those conversations.
The has dialed up the pressure on the West and leaders of the most powerful NATO countries, The Wall Street Journal emphasized in follow-up on Wednesday.
Macron seems the first among these leaders to be responding positively, despite the fact that NATO Article 5 could trigger certain war between Western powers and Russia if Ukraine were to be formally admitted to the alliance. According to more from the FT:
French president Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday called for Ukraine to be granted a Nato membership “path” next month. While he did not commit to endorsing full membership for Ukraine, it represented a potentially influential shift in Paris’ stance. Intense discussions are now under way among Ukraine’s western backers about what form security guarantees could take and how much money would be pledged towards them, said a French official.
But Germany is among leading countries still rejecting this as a realistic approach. FT in April had cited multiple unnamed German officials who said Berlin remains against offering Kiev “deeper ties” to the alliance, and is against a potential roadmap as well.
SERBIA/KOSOVO
Russia is concerned that there is another Maidan style coup underway in Serbia.
(zerohedge)
Russian Ambassador Claims Maidan-Style Coup Attempt Unfolding In Belgrade
WEDNESDAY, MAY 31, 2023 – 10:25 PM
Russian Ambassador to Serbia Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko has leveled some dramatic allegations against the West in relation to both the Ukraine war and ongoing tensions and clashes in northern Kosovo, which has been focus of international media attention.
The Russian ambassador claimed that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s opponents are plotting and attempting to stage a “Maidan-style coup” in the Serbian capital of Belgrade. His word choice implied he things the West is involved on some level.
Using terminology which has been familiar in Kremlin descriptions of what NATO is doing in Ukraine, Amb. Botsan-Kharchenko said, “This is part of the hybrid war. I would like to stress that anti-Belgrade forces acted almost synchronously; they operate on two fronts – this is the situation in Kosovo and attempts at a Maidan coup here, in Belgrade.”Large Serbian protests against gun violence and government mismanagement in May. AFP/Getty Images
The Russian official’s words also referenced recent large-scale anti-government protests inside Serbia, some which gathered in front of the building of Serbia’s national broadcaster in Belgrade on Sunday.
These have been billed as ‘peace protests’ but according to regional media have progressively taken on an anti-government character and anti-government slogans. Some of them have happened with slogans such as “Serbia Against Violence” – and have been focused on gun violence in the wake of recent mass casualty school shootings in Serbia – a rarity for the country’s recent history.
The protests have been going strong since mid-May, and people are angry over what they see as government mishandling of recent crises:
Protesters gathered in front of the parliament building on Friday before filing by the government’s HQ and on to a highway bridge spanning the Sava River, where evening commuters had to turn their vehicles around to avoid getting stuck. At the head of the column was a black banner reading “Serbia against violence.”
As the demonstrators passed the government buildings, many chanted slogans decrying Serbia’s populist president, Aleksandar Vučić, whom they blame for creating an atmosphere of hopelessness and division in the country that they say indirectly led to the mass shootings.
Additionally Russia’s TASS has described the following of recent protests in Serbia:
The first rally was quite peaceful, with practically no anti-government slogans. People were simply congregating in silence in front of the parliamentary building. During the second rally, protesters blocked a bridge across the Sava River and chanted anti-government slogans. The third demonstration had an anti-government character too. According to the Serbian interior ministry, more than 11,000 people took part in these rallies.
Serbia has long been a staunch ally of Russia, however, there’s been recent distance and tensions due to the war in Ukraine. Still, Belgrade is generally seen in the West as more oriented toward Russia. It remains that both Slavic countries have long condemned what they see as NATO aggression and expansion, particularly following the 1999 US-NATO bombing campaign over Belgrade.
The Serbian population itself also tends to engage in large demonstrations against NATO and US policies from time to time. In particular the Serb people reject US and international recognition of Kosovo as a sovereign nation, given it historically was an ethnic Serb and Orthodox Christian heartland. This week, President Vucic has ordered Serbian troops to the Kosovo border amid unrest and an unpredictable situation, also as he’s condemned the Kosovo government for cracking down on the Serb minority there.
END
This is interesting!! The Taliban seems to be blocking water passage into Iran. Iran of course is furious because their lands are parched. Thus the huge classes at the Iranian-Afghanistan border.
(zerohedge/the Canary)
AFGHANISTAN (TALIBAN) IN CONFLICT WITH IRAN
Taliban Deploys Heavy Reinforcements To Iran Border After Clashes
Videos circulating social media on Wednesday show Taliban forces heavily reinforcing the Afghan border with Iran, after significant escalation regarding a water dispute between the two countries, which resulted in heavy border clashes between the two sides over the weekend.
The clashes broke out on Saturday between Taliban troops and Iranian border guards, resulting in the death of two Iranian border guards and a Taliban militant, despite unconfirmed reports of further Taliban casualties.
The outbreak of fighting came a week after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned the Taliban to respect Iran’s rights to water from the Helmand River shared between the two countries, under the 1973 Afghan-Iranian Helmand River Treaty. Iran has long accused Afghanistan of restricting the flow of its water to Iran and causing droughts or dry spells.Via AFP
Each side claimed that the other had initiated the clashes. On May 29, Iran’s Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said that calm had prevailed on the border but that Tehran would respond with force if the Taliban resumed provocation.
The Taliban defense minister said on the day that the fighting broke out that the Afghan government views dialogue and negotiation as the best way to resolve issues. Other Afghan officials echoed the defense minister’s words and called for the prevention of escalation.
Other officials and Afghan figures were seen in videos on social media making inflammatory statements. The most notable of these figures is Taliban leader Abdul Hamid Khorosani, who was seen in a video on Twitter May 28 threatening that “if the [religious authorities] allow us, we will seize Tehran.”
“Do not test our strength. You are behind the scenes with the Westerners,” Khorosani added, addressing the Islamic Republic. Reports suggest that Khorosani had been dismissed earlier this month over differences with Taliban leadership.
The Iranian Interior Ministry claimed on Wednesday, following the release of the footage on the Afghan-Iranian border, that those who made statements against Iran were “low-ranking” members of the Taliban who have since been “dismissed” by the organization.
Iranian media outlets have also claimed that border-crossings between the two countries are now open, despite having been closed following the outbreak of clashes. “Clashes happened based on a mistake made by the Afghan border guards. We have had several incidents like this so far. We advise Afghan authorities to justify the actions of their border guards,” the Iranian Interior Ministry added.
Despite videos showing reinforcements on the border, Iranian media reports suggested that some “elements are trying to provoke the parties involved with rumors and fake news.”
One Iranian report said that there is complete calm on the border. However, conflicting reports continue to emerge, with some suggesting that the reinforcements are ongoing.
In December 2021, brief clashes broke out on the Afghan-Iranian border between Iran’s border guards and Taliban fighters. In June of the following year, an Iranian border guard was killed by the Taliban. Iran urged the Afghan government at the time to “punish the perpetrators” and take action to prevent a repeat of such occurrences.
Footage from the weekend border clashes…
Following Washington’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the US army left behind $7.12 billion in military equipment in the country, which immediately fell into the hands of the Taliban
END.
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/
GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
Dr. Peter McCullough: Understand Spike Shedding before it’s too late
BY THE WELLNESS COMPANY
As America’s leading cardiologist and COVID-19 expert, Dr. Peter McCullough wasn’t afraid to stand up to big pharma, big tech and big government during the pandemic, and he is showing that same courage to sound the alarm today about the ongoing risks posed by mRNA and spike protein shedding:
One of the most common questions I am asked from the unvaccinated stems from concerns over “shedding”… mRNA vaccines are indeed gene therapy products and should have been submitted to excretion studies by DARPA funded researchers long ago.
Sadly, these careful development steps were skipped from the beginning in our military-style vaccine development program, and now the public is grappling with the issue of nucleic acid and Spike protein shedding as a potential concern among those who have worked so hard to remain healthy and free of COVID-19 vaccination.
Fertig et al, have shown mRNA is circulatory in blood for at least two weeks with no reduction in concentration out to that time point. Likewise, Hanna et al, have found mRNA within breast milk. Less data exist on Spike protein shedding but it is not a far stretch to understand this is well within the realm of reality. The pivotal questions are:
For how long is a recently vaccinated person at risk to shed on to others?
Can shed mRNA be taken up by the recipient and begin to produce Spike protein just like vaccination?
Can shed Spike protein cause disease as it does in the vaccinated (e.g. myocarditis, blood clots, etc.)?
Dr. McCullough has been researching the duration of spike-induced injuries as a proxy for risk. While the results are early, he reports that the damage is long-lasting:
My attention was drawn to the follow-up MRI scans… only 20% had resolved their abnormalities at over six months (199 days).
Therefore, the real question we all should be asking ourselves is, “how do I get this out of my body?”
The mRNA and adenoviral DNA products were rolled out with no idea on how or when the body would ever breakdown the genetic code. The synthetic mRNA carried on lipid nanoparticles appears to be resistant to breakdown by human ribonucleases by design so the product would be long-lasting and produce the protein product of interest for a considerable time period… it is a big problem when the protein is the pathogenic SARS-CoV-2 Spike.”
Fortunately, Dr. McCullough has identified a solution: the best-known way to remove and protect against mRNA-carrying spike proteins is a daily dose of over-the-counter nattokinase:
“Nattokinase is an enzyme is produced by fermenting soybeans with bacteria Bacillus subtilis var. natto and has been available as an oral supplement. It degrades fibrinogen, factor VII, cytokines, and factor VIII and has been studied for its cardiovascular benefits. Out of all the available therapies I have used in my practice and among all the proposed detoxification agents, I believe nattokinase and related peptides hold the greatest promise for patients at this time.”
I mean, unison of China and Russia due to the insanity of Biden and their deadly WW III Russia Ukraine involvement presents challenges to the US yet do we depend on India? Who as we seek to school?
‘The U.S. military says China’s air force carried out an “unnecessarily aggressive maneuver” Friday as a U.S. Air Force RC-135 flew over the South China Sea. See video of the Chinese jet pilot’s actions, here. “The [People’s Republic of China J-16] pilot flew directly in front of the nose of the RC-135, forcing the U.S. aircraft to fly through its wake turbulence,” U.S. officials at Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement. The RC-135 was “conducting safe and routine operations over the South China Sea in international airspace, in accordance with international law,” Indo-PACOM said, “and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Joint Force will continue to fly in international airspace with due regard for the safety of all vessels and aircraft under international law.””
Some say America is a bad nation, I say all nations and peoples have dark pasts etc. All. The question is, can you stand on the side to save America and is she the last best beacon of hope? You damn right she is. With all her imperfections.
COVID and got severely ill or died from COVID. Not one. We closed society and lockded down schools for a lie, none of it was to happen. COVID, the entire pandemic including the mRNA technology, FRAUD.
BREAKING: Chick-Fil-A Slammed By Conservatives As ‘Woke’ Initiatives Come To LightREAD MORE…
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VACCINE IMPACT
The Western Banking System is on the Brink of Collapse
May 31, 2023 7:28 pm
There is virtually nobody in either the corporate or alternative media these days who are not warning about the serious problems with U.S. and European banks today. Even if a U.S. debt ceiling agreement is reached this week, it will not save the banking system. I am highlighting two new articles published today that reveal just how dire the current banking crisis is, and what may be lying ahead in the not-too-distant future with a new financial system rolled out and the implementation of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). First, Pam Martens of Wall Street on Parade reports on a new IMF projection for the U.S. economy. Next, Sam Parker, writing for Behind the News Network, just published a 2-part article titled “They’re Coming for Your Money.” He reports how the two families that control western banks, the Rockefellers in the U.S., and the Rothschilds in Europe, are planning on bringing down the entire western banking system to implement the “Great Reset” and roll out programmable Central Bank Digital Currencies.
By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Reports focusing on financial stability often make for some grim reading. Then again, I guess that these reports don’t do their job if the authors conclude that everything is humming along just fine. The ECB’s bi-annual Financial Stability Review is no different. Yesterday’s release warned that“as financial conditions normalise, this may expose fragilities and fault lines in the financial system.” The report goes on to note that “tighter financial conditions are testing the resilience of euro area firms, households and sovereigns,” particularly pointing out their ability to service debt.
The ECB’s rapid hiking cycle is already affecting new borrowing. Yet, so far, the impact on debt servicing costs has remained relatively muted, owing to the decade of low rates that encouraged households and corporates to lock these low rates in for long periods. This shields a substantial part of the outstanding debt from such rising costs – at least until the rate reset date. But that debt also serves as a potential time bomb. The longer the ECB has to hike and/or keep rates at high levels, the larger the share of debt that becomes subject to rate resets or has to be refinanced, under less favorable conditions besides higher rates.
From that perspective, the Eurozone inflation data will probably offer some relief today. After the mixed inflation reports from Belgium (an unexpected and substantial increase that reminded markets of the shocker UK CPI print) and Spain (a much shaper drop than anticipated) on Tuesday, French and German data both supported the latter narrative. With three of the major Eurozone countries showing improvement in the inflation outlook, the Eurozone HICP print may slow more than the 0.7 percentage point deceleration that is anticipated. That will not immediately wipe ECB rate hikes off the table, but it might limit pressure on the central bank to continue hiking for too much longer. Indeed, upside inflation surprises in both Italy and the Netherlands underline that the jury is still very much out on underlying price dynamics.
But the ECB may not be the only villain: “If the Bank of Japan decides to normalise its policy, this might influence the decisions of Japanese investors who have a large footprint in global financial markets, including the euro area bond market.“Yet, as data compiled by Bloomberg reveals, that trend may actually be ongoing already. In 2022, Japanese investors unwound some ¥5.4 trillion (€39 billion) in Eurozone bond holdings. That’s still only a drop in the ocean that is the European bond market, but if Japanese monetary policy were to further discourage overseas investments, the lack of Japanese buying interest would add to the ECB’s intentions to fully halt APP reinvestments from July onwards.
Whether it’s the ECB’s own tightening or external spillovers, the monetary cycle is certainly making it gradually more expensive for sovereigns to borrow. While this is imperative to slow the inflation momentum, it may also make Europe’s strive for strategic autonomy –which requires large investments in various areas– harder to achieve.
Nonetheless, the Italian government passed a bill to set up a strategic fund that supports Italian firms in key strategic sectors. Its aims are to help the procurement of critical raw materials and may invest in domestic non-financial corporations in order to bolster domestic production. The fund will receive €1 billion in start-up cash from the government, and seeks to raise another €500 million from investors – perhaps somewhat ironically, Prime Minister Meloni is trying to raise this additional cash from non-Eurozone funds.
Speaking of bills passing, the US House of Representatives voted in favor of the Fiscal Responsibility Act that suspends the debt limit until January 2025. This only leaves a nod of approval of the Senate, but that hurdle seems to be lower than garnering enough bipartisan support in the House. The time to avert a default is still very short, but the House vote should bolster risk sentiment and equities in today’s session.
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Rickards: Biden’s Scheme Is “Cynical And Manipulative”
This is a financial newsletter, not a political one, much less a partisan one. But politics affects markets. And if I come across as partisan when weighing in on politics, so be it.
But it’s based upon objective analysis. Having gotten that disclaimer out of the way, let’s get started…
The Biden administration is playing political games with one of America’s most critical national security assets — the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
This is not the first time. In fact, it’s a continuation of political oil price manipulation begun in early 2022 in an effort to manipulate the mid-term elections in favor of Democrats.
Biden is treating the SPR like a pile of chips in a poker game against Republicans instead of a treasured national resource. It’s a price and political manipulation that everyday Americans don’t understand. Yet, everyone will suffer if an economic or geopolitical crisis emerges and America finds itself unprepared.
First, some background: The SPR was created in 1975 in response to the Arab oil embargo aimed at the United States because of its support for Israel in the October 1973 Yom Kippur War. By March 1974, the price of oil had spiked 300% from $3.00 per barrel to $12.00 per barrel and the U.S. was thrown into a severe recession.
A Strategic Petroleum Reserve Facility in Bill Hill, Texas
In order to protect U.S. citizens from that kind of oil shock, the SPR was created to give the U.S. a substantial supply of oil that could see us through another embargo without destroying the economy. The capacity of the SPR was set at 714 million barrels, the largest publicly known emergency supply in the world.
Near Capacity… Until Biden
The SPR held 300 million barrels in 1983, but that amount grew steadily in the 1980s and 1990s. By 2010, the SPR actually reached its peak capacity of over 700 million barrels and held that level through 2016. Slight drawdowns occurred from 2017 to 2020, but the SPR was still near capacity at 600 million barrels when Joe Biden was inaugurated in January 2021.
From there the amount of oil in the SPR collapsed. On March 31, 2022, President Biden announced the SPR would be reduced by 1 million barrels per day for the next 180 days. It’s no coincidence that the announced drawdown ran through September 30, 2022, just weeks before the midterm election.
Today, the reserve is 372 million barrels, down 48% from the peak to a level of just 52% of capacity, the lowest supply in forty years.
The reasons for this drawdown were obvious. In 2022, inflation had spiked from an average of 4.7% in 2021 to 9.1% in June 2022. Gasoline prices were rising in lockstep.
Biden’s draining of the oil reserve was a blatant effort to get inflation and gas prices down in time for the election. In some ways, it worked. Inflation fell to 7.1% on Election Day and the national average price of regular gasoline fell from $5.02 per gallon on June 14, 2022, to $3.54 per gallon by November 2022, a 30% drop just in time for the midterms.
Biden’s Democrats held the Senate and came close to holding the House of Representatives in what was supposed to be a “red wave” election. It was more of a red ripple. Now, there are other reasons why the red wave didn’t form. There’s no need to get into them here. But basically, Biden’s gas price manipulation plan worked.
Where Things Stand Today
Where does that leave us today with another national election just seventeen months away? Here’s the latest on the Biden administration’s oil price manipulation plan as reported by Reuters last Monday, May 15:
“The U.S. Department of Energy said on Monday it will purchase 3 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for delivery in August, and asked that offers be submitted by May 31.
“U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm had signaled to lawmakers late last week that her department could start repurchasing oil for the stockpile soon, after a record sale last year during a spike in prices that pushed the level of the reserve to the lowest since 1983.
“The new purchase would be for sour crude oil delivered to the Big Hill SPR site in Texas sometime during the month of August, according to the announcement.
“The Biden administration last year conducted the largest ever sale from the SPR of 180 million barrels, part of a strategy to stabilize soaring oil markets and combat high pump prices in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“The sale angered Republicans who accused the administration of leaving the U.S. with too thin a supply buffer to adequately respond to a future supply crisis.
“The sales brought the SPR inventory to around 372 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, amounting to just under 20 days of cover at current U.S. consumption rates.
“The administration has said it would start to buy oil back into the reserve when prices are consistently at or below $67 to $72 per barrel, well below the level at which the oil had been sold, so that taxpayers can get some benefit.
“U.S. crude prices were around $71 a barrel on Monday.”
“All of This Is Deeply Cynical and Manipulative”
It’s clear that the Biden price manipulators will go ahead with a refill of the SPR, at least to some extent. There are several reasons for this:
It’s smart politics. Biden wants to take the “drain the reserve” charge off the table. Refilling the SPR insulates him from the charge, even though he did in fact drain the reserve more than any president in history.
Oil and gasoline prices have come down a lot. This is not for good reasons; the truth is we’re heading into a recession. But down is down. Oil was near $120 per barrel in March 2022 when the big drain began. Oil prices were down to $85 per barrel on Election Day 2022 and gas prices were down a lot too. Now Biden can look like a genius trader. Sell high, buy low!
The Biden price manipulators may want to wash, rinse, and repeat. By filling up the reserve now, they can drain it again if prices go up ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Prices may or may not go up, but if they do, Biden will be ready to drain the reserve again. Refilling the reserve now lets Biden drain it again in 2024. It’s like an “Ace in the Hole” for his reelection campaign.
All of this is deeply cynical and manipulative.
The SPR is for national security. It’s not a political plaything. But the White House doesn’t care.
To them, everything is a political tool to maintain power. Draining the SPR at all is dangerous. Biden won’t completely refill it. He’ll just add enough to buy political protection and prepare to drain it again.
Meanwhile, the world remains a dangerous and highly uncertain place. The War in Ukraine drags on with Russian victory looking more and more likely. If Europe has a cold winter in 2024, Putin will be in a position to use his own oil weapon to drive energy prices to new all-time highs. A still largely depleted reserve will deprive the U.S. of its energy cushion to protect itself and possibly help allies in Europe.
Biden is gambling with U.S. national security to score a few cheap political points. It’s typical of Biden but it’s a betrayal of presidents of both parties who have worked to maintain the SPR since 1975.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
SOUTH AFRICA
The theft of power lines has now ground a second major railway. This once proud nation that supplied 90% of the world’s gold supply from 1890 through to 1950 is now a failed state
(zerohedge)
Second Major Railway Grinds To Halt In South Africa
THURSDAY, JUN 01, 2023 – 06:55 AM
The precise question one needs to ask is: What the hell is continuing to unfold in South Africa? An economic crisis is worsening, and extended rolling blackouts have been the norm over the last several months, but in the last week, multiple major railways have ground to a halt due to rampant theft of power cables.
Bloomberg said a 535-mile rail line used to haul iron ore and manganese from Kumba Iron Ore Ltd.’s giant Sishen mine in the Northern Cape province to west coast ports was paralyzed on Tuesday after criminal organized gangs stole power cables used to power electric locomotives.
Transnet SOC Ltd., the state-owned entity that operates the line, wrote in a statement:
“Security teams were immediately activated and are working with law enforcement agencies, stakeholders and customers to curb this security threat.
“Our employees will be working around the clock to get services back to normal and get customers’ cargo moving as soon as possible.”
The 535-mile rail line is the second to be vandalized by theft within a week. This time last week, a 428-mile rail line from the Port of Durban to Gauteng province had capacity significantly reduced due to “theft, vandalism, and rail damage” by gangs.
Meanwhile, this morning, South Africa’s rand hit a new record low against the dollar due to rising diplomatic tensions and worsening economic risks.
The rand touched 19.9204 per dollar, just shy of the 20 handle.
Bloomberg noted:
The latest setback for investors is the government’s plan to provide diplomatic immunity to attendees of BRICS meetings as it prepares to host Russian President Vladimir Putin at an August summit. That’s added to power cuts that are hurting the economy, concerns over China’s growth, and renewed gains in the US dollar.
And it’s been about a week since the African National Congress, a social-democratic political party in the country, warned that the country could become a “failed state.”
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0696 UP 0.0003
USA/ YEN 139.55 UP 0.413 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2463 UP 0.0018
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3565 DOWN .0001 (CDN DOLLAR UP 1 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 0.07 PTS OR 0.00%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 17.36 PTS OR 0.10%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.24% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 17.36 PTS OR 0.10%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.07 PTS OR 0.00%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.24%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 260.13 PTS OR 0.84%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1966.10
silver:$23.48
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 104.14 DOWN 19 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP.(7.0945)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 7.1068
TURKISH LIRA: 20.82 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.415…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.621% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.848 DOWN 2 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 44.13 points or 0.59%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 189.64 PTS OR 1.21%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 38.73 PTS OR 0.56%
Spain IBEX UP 117.30 PTS OR 1.30%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 5424/36 PTS OR 2.01%
WTI Oil price 68.49 12: EST
Brent Oil: 73.32 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 80.75/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 35//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.250 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1635 DOWN 16 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0760 UP 0.0067 OR 67 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2526 UP .0080 or 80 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.314% DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 138.78 DOWN 0.351 //YEN UP 35 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3449 DOWN .01172 CDN dollar, UP 117 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 70.12
Brent OIL: 74.21
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 3.612%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS PTS to 3.840%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 6 PTS AT 4.341%
USA dollar index: 103.56 DOWN 77 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 20.81 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP)
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.76 DOWN 0 AND 35/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 153.30 PTS OR 0.47%
NASDAQ 100 UP 187.42 PTS OR 1.31%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.81 DOWN 2.13 PTS (11.87)%
GLD: $183.76 UP 1.44 OR 0.79%
SLV/ $21.95 UP 0.34 OR 1.57%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fed ‘Pause’ Narrative Builds; Stocks Soar On Massive Squeeze
THURSDAY, JUN 01, 2023 – 04:01 PM
The labor market continued to show resilience today (claims and ADP solid) ahead of tomorrows payrolls print (but wage growth slowed) but job gains were fragmented. At the same time, the manufacturing side of the economy continued to deteriorate significantly (along with prices), productivity was revised ugly, but construction increased more than expected. So take your pick on that smorgasbord.
FedSpeak continued to push the idea of a skip/pause in June with Phily Fed’s Patrick Harker saying “I do believe that we are close to the point where we can hold rates in place and let monetary policy do its work to bring inflation back to the target in a timely manner.
But St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard commented that interest rates are now “at the low end of what is arguably sufficiently restrictive given current macroeconomic conditions” in an essay posted on his bank’s website.
Putting all that into the bowl and the market adjusted dovishly with rate-hike expectations for June/July fading and rate-cut expectations for year-end rising fast…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks were in the mood to party and it was one-way traffic higher led by Small Caps and Mega-Cap tech. Some late-day profit-taking wiped some of the lipstick off this pig (but Nasdaq and Small Caps managed 1% gains on the day still). The Dow was the smallest winner…
The Nasdaq is now on pace for its longest weekly win streak since 2020.
Stocks soared thanks to a massive short-squeeze that hit shortly after the cash open…
Source: Bloomberg
The morning saw almost no selling pressure at all but the late-day saw a big sell-program hit with around 30mins to go…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, the squeeze was initiated by several positive delta impulses from 0-DTE traders, but at around 1200ET, 0-DTE puts were aggressively bid reversing the flow dramatically (slowing the uptrend in stocks), but the market’s continued rise prompted covering of those puts and call-buying which prompted another leg higher to the short-squeeze…
Oil prices also soared today, with WTI topping $71…
Finally, Target stock started the day ugly for the 10th day in a row – the longest losing streak since the peak of the dotcom bubble in Feb 2000. A buying panic wave stepped in around 1200ET lifting it green. Then the machines battled to keep it green as selling pressure took it back into the red…
Update (2115ET): The House has successfully voted to raise the debt limit. The legislation now heads to the Senate, where it will need (and undoubtedly receive) at least 60 votes to proceed to President Biden’s desk for his signature ahead of a June 5 deadline to avert a national default.
71 Republicans opposed the measure, as did 46 Democrats, while 149 Republicans and 165 Democrats voted to back the plan.
As we noted earlier, the bill – which as discussed here does not cut real Federal spending even in year one despite widespread propaganda that In exchange for Republican votes for the suspension, Democrats agreed to cap federal spending for the next two years – would set the course for federal spending for the next two years and suspend the debt ceiling until Jan. 1, 2025 — postponing another clash over borrowing until after the presidential election. By then total US debt will be $35 trillion and well on its way to unsustainability.
Of note, in order to try and convince hardline conservatives to vote yes, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had proposed a bipartisan commission, at an expected cost upwards of $100 million, to outline future budget cuts.
“After today, I’m going to put a commission together to look at the entire budget. This debt is too large,” said McCarthy. “We can be very serious about looking long term to solve this problem.”
* * *
Update (2115ET): The full House vote has started on the debt ceiling deal.
Shortly after 4pm ET, the debt-limit deal cleared a major hurdle in the House despite growing opposition, setting up the legislation for a vote around 8:15pm on Wednesday night, a vote which despite vocal showboating opposition from various republicans appears destined to pass.
While the House voted 241-187 to take a procedural step needed to consider the measure, McCarthy needed votes from Democrats to offset 29 Republican “no” votes, underscoring the divide within his own party over the legislation as such votes setting the rules for debate are nearly always decided along party lines. The final vote tally suggests that the Speaker’s position is becoming increasingly vulnerable… if only there was someone willing to submit a motion to vacate.
Here are the 29 Republicans that voted no on the rule for the debt ceiling:
A) 29 GOPers voted no on rule for debt ceiling.
Biggs
Bishop
Boebert
Brecheen
Burlison
Buck
Cline
Burchett
Cloud
Clyde
Crane
Gaetz
Gosar
Good
Griffith
Higgins
Harris
Harshberger
Luna
Miller
Moore
Norman
Perry
Posey
Rosendale
Roy
Self
Spartz
Tiffany
“I think things are going as planned,” Biden told reporters at the White House, before he was due to leave for Colorado. “God willing, by the time I land, Congress will have acted, the House will have acted, and we’ll be one step closer.”
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, a Minnesota Republican, said early Wednesday that he’s sure the votes are in hand. “It’s going to pass,” he said even though he will need Democrat vote for the final passage.
If it passes, the bill will next go to the Senate, where objections from conservatives could force days of debate. But John Thune, the Senate’s No. 2 Republican, said Wednesday that there could be a deal to pass the bill by Friday night, days ahead of the June 5 default deadline.
The bill – which as discussed here does not cut real Federal spending even in year one despite widespread propaganda that In exchange for Republican votes for the suspension, Democrats agreed to cap federal spending for the next two years – would set the course for federal spending for the next two years and suspend the debt ceiling until Jan. 1, 2025 — postponing another clash over borrowing until after the presidential election. By then total US debt will be $35 trillion and well on its way to unsustainability.
* * *
As the deal to raise the debt ceiling works its way through the House, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (KY) is preparing for battle with Senate conservatives who are calling for amendments to the bill and threatening to delay the legislation until changes are made.
As The Hill reports, the bill is likely to get over 40 Senate Democratic votes, meaning it will likely need at least 10-20 “yes” votes from Senate Republicans in order for it to move to President Biden’s desk before the June 5 “X-date” deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for the US to run out of funds.
On Sunday, McConnell came out in favor of the deal negotiated between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and President Biden’s team, however he faces strong opposition from actual conservatives. Chief among them, Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), who has threatened to use “every procedural tool at my disposal” to slow down the bill. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has similarly thrown a wrench in the gears – demanding a vote on his “conservative alternative” that would cut total federal spending by $545 billion over two years.
“It’s time to go back to the drawing board or, even better, go back to what the House already passed,” said Lee on Tuesday – referring to the Limit, Save, Grow Act, which would cut $4.8 trillion from the future deficit. According to Lee, the current bill “simply does not do what its proponents claim it does — not even close.”
Last week, Lee said that if the bill doesn’t include substantial budgetary and spending reforms, it “will not face smooth sailing in the Senate.”
McConnell has pledged the nation will not default on its debts but he also has a responsibility as leader to help Republican colleagues who want to amend the legislation, which could delay it past the June 5 “X-date.”
“The Senate must act swiftly and pass this agreement without unnecessary delay,” he said in a statement Sunday. -The Hill
Rand Paul, meanwhile, says he won’t vote for any bill to raise the debt ceiling that doesn’t balance the federal budget in five years – which would require over $500 billion in future cuts.
“To us, it doesn’t look like cuts at all. In fact, spending will go up every year under that debt plan,” he said of the Biden-McCarthy deal, adding “Mandatory spending is enormous; it’s over half of the spending every year. It’s going up at five percent a year.”
That said, Paul says he won’t use procedural amendments to slow down passage of the debt bill, which caps federal spending for two years, and allows Congress to decide how to meet those targets at a later date.
Also opposing the current deal are Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Mike Braun (R-IN).
“This bill leaves us with trillions more in debt & no clear path to less inflation or a balanced budget. I appreciate the work @SpeakerMcCarthy did to try & negotiate a good deal when @JoeBiden refused to engage, but I cannot support this bill,” Scott tweeted Tuesday.
Braun, meanwhile, told reporters that he wouldn’t vote for the bill unless it similarly contains major changes and amendments, adding that he won’t object to speeding up the debate on the legislation if he and his GOP colleagues can submit amendments – even if they’re unlikely to pass.
“You want amendments because you know they’re not going to pass, let’s be real here. The Democrats and the neo-cons in our party are going to get this thing across the finish line, but I want the process of being able to amend it. To me, that is a step in the right direction, because this all gives information to the public in terms of what could be done, even though it doesn’t get incorporated,” said Braun.
Other GOP Senators on the fence include John Cornyn, John Kennedy and Mike Rounds.
“From my perspective, there’s not really anything to support until the House passes the bill. I’m waiting to see what the House sends us,” said Cornyn.
END
THEN
McCarthy gave democrats secret concessions in exchange for debt ceiling votes???
(zerohedge)
McCarthy Reportedly Gave Democrats Secret Concessions In Exchange For Debt Ceiling Votes
WEDNESDAY, MAY 31, 2023 – 11:01 PM
Update (2300ET): Hours after the House passed the debt ceiling bill, Axios reports that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) gave Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) secret concessions to boost spending on Democratic districts in the form of “community project funding” in exchange for their votes earlier this evening, according to two senior lawmakers.
One lawmaker said the deal boosts earmarks to Democrats to bring them “closer to parity” with what Republicans receive in such funds in the GOP-led House. -Axios
McCarthy has told reporters that he didn’t cut any deals to supply the Democratic votes.
When asked if he cut a deal, Jeffries said “House Democrats to the rescue to avoid a dangerous default and help House Republicans get legislation over the finish line that they negotiated themselves.”
More via Axios;
The backdrop: Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), ranking member of the Appropriations Committee, previously had told Democrats that they would receive significantly reduced funding for projects in their districts this year, according to Politico.
What we’re watching: The deal could further inflame far-right lawmakers already incensed about the compromise bill that McCarthy cut with Biden. They’ve accused the speaker of caving to most of Democrats’ demands and not cutting enough government spending.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), reacting to news that Democrats might have squeezed McCarthy on earmarks, tweeted derisively: “Earmarks! Sell! Sell! Sell! #NoDeal[.]”
If there was ever any doubt, now we know: Speaker Kevin McCarthy has straw for brains and a Twizzlers stick for a backbone. He was within perhaps five days of breaking the iron grip of America’s fiscal doomsday machine, yet inexplicably he turned tail and threw in the towel for a mess of fiscal pottage.
We are referring, of course, to the impending moment when the US Treasury would have been forced to forgo scheduled vendor or beneficiary distributions in order to preserve incoming cash for interest payments and other priorities. That act of spending deferrals and prioritization would have obliterated the debt “default” canard once and for all, paving the way for a nascent fiscal opposition to regain control of the nation’s wretched public finances.
And there should be no doubt that we were damn close to that crystalizing moment. After all, Grandma Yellen herself forewarned just last week on Meet The Press that absent a debt ceiling increase, the Treasury Department would have to prioritize payments and leave some bills unpaid:
“And my assumption is that if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, there will be hard choices to make about what bills go unpaid,” Yellen said on NBC’s “Meet the Press…….“We have to pay interest and principle on outstanding debt. We also have obligations to seniors who count on Social Security, our military that expects pay, contractors who’ve provided services to the federal government, and some bills have to go unpaid….”
And, of course, that prioritization and deferral could have been easily done. Federal receipts are now running about $450 billion per month, meaning that after paying $61 billion of interest, $128 billion for Social Security, $26 billion for Veterans and $47 billion for military pay and O&M there would still be $188 billion left to cover at least 50% of everything else.
That is to say, no sweat with respect to servicing the public debt, and a lot of sweat among the constituencies that would have had payments delayed or reduced.
So, yes, the GOP has truly earned the Stupid Party sobriquet. No ifs, ands or buts about it.
Instead of spending days negotiating over the minutia of budgetary scams, tricks and slights-of-hand, which is the entirety of the McCarthy deal, they should have been demanding from the Treasury a detailed list of scheduled payments by day for the first few weeks in June. And then, in return for continued negotiations on meaningful spending cuts and reforms, demanded assurance from the White House that enough of these due bills would be temporarily stuck in the drawer (deferred), if necessary, to ensure payment of scheduled interest, Social Security, military pay and Veterans pensions.
That is to say, McCarthy had Sleepy Joe over the proverbial barrel. But instead of applying the wood to his political backside good and hard, the Speaker chose to hold Biden’s coat and help him get back up, praising the latter’s supercilious retainers as he did so.
For crying out loud. Upwards of 96% of Uncle Sam’s cash balance had been dissipated over the past year, guaranteeing that expected June collections of well more than $500 billion would not be enough to cover 100% of the scheduled due bills. Accordingly, just a couple of days of missed payments on selective items would have turned the Washington fiscal equation upside down.
The bogeyman of “debt default” would have been completely annihilated. And the legions of interest groups, businesses and individuals who suckle on the Federal teat month-inand-month-out would have screamed to high heaven for relief, which McCarthy would have been positioned to provide to them…..at a price!
Needless to say, the “price” in question has nothing to do with the risible budgetary trivia that passes for the Speaker’s compromise deal. For instance, does the GOP think voters are actually stupid enough to buy the rescission of $28 billion of left-over Covid budget authority, which probably wouldn’t have been spent anyway, when these “saved” funds are to be recycled into FY 2024 appropriations but not counted against the ceiling?
That’s Swamp Creature math, and arrogance, too, like never before.
Even Goldman Sachs says that the budgetary impact of the deal amounts to a pure rounding error in the scheme of things:
The spending deal looks likely to reduce spending by 0.1-0.2% of GDP yoy in 2024 and 2025, compared with a baseline in which funding grows with inflation.
Here’s the point. CBO’s most recent projection shows new deficits of $20.3 trillion over the 10-year budget window—and that’s based on Rosy Scenario economics with no recession, inflation gone away and only gently rising interest rates. Throw-in even a modest dose of realism about the economics and back-out the huge tax increases and spending cuts built into the out-year baseline, which will never be permitted to actually materialize, and you have a de facto public debt of $55 trillion by the early 2030s or more than 200% of the current GDP.
What that amounts to is a long-term structural fiscal equation which is a guaranteed route to financial and political disaster. Thus, CBO’s end year numbers (FY 2033) show current policy receipts at 18.1% of GDP and spending at 25.3% of GDP.
Folks, you can’t borrow 7.3% of GDP every year from now until eternity and get away with it; and most especially not when American society is plunging into a 100 million strong baby boom retirement wave—accompanied by a shrinking work force and tax base owing to collapsing birth rates and Washington’s idiotic migrant worker internment camps at the southern border.
Stated differently, fiscal governance in Washington is totally kaput. They never pass an annual budget resolution and enforcement plan, which was taken as a sacred duty back in the day; and there are never even annual appropriations bills for the mere 25% of the budget still subject to the Congressional “power of the purse”.
Instead, what occurs is a perennial string of short-term Continuing Resolutions (CRs) followed by an 11th hour, 3000 page pork-ridden “Omnibus Appropriations” bill that no one has read and which gives log-rolling (i.e. more domestic for more defense) a new definition.
In short, the debt ceiling was the only fiscal control mechanism left. And even that has been neutered time after time in the last decade by the hideous, flat-out lie that if the Treasury on any given day is one dollar short of being able to cover all of its due bills it must default on each and every one of them including interest payments, thereby destroying the credit of the United States. Yada, yada.
Finally, that lie was being put to the test and would have been eviscerated sometime next week. Yet after a lifetime on the public teat, Kevin McCarthy like his two GOP predecessors surrendered to the Doomsday Machine because he works for the GOP wing of the Swamp, not the voters, current and future.
And he did so while expectorating the most risible of lies:
Republicans are changing the culture and trajectory of Washington—and we’re just getting started.
Not close. Not in the ballpark or even the catcher’s box behind home plate.
The deal does absolutely nothing to change the current “trajectory” toward fiscal disaster because it reduces nary a dime of built-in spending for defense, entitlements/mandatories, veterans and net interest, while those items account for 89% of the $80 trillion of built-in spending over the next decade.
Current 10-Year CBO Baseline for FY 2024-2033:
Revenues: $60 trillion;
Spending: $80 trillion ;
New Debt: $20 trillion;
Mandatory Spending & Net Interest: $59 trillion;
Discretionary Spending for Defense & Veterans: $12 trillion;
Total Spending Exempted From Cuts in McCarthy Deal: $71 trillion;
% of Baseline Spending Exempted From Cuts: 89%
For avoidance of doubt, just consider the recent trajectory of defense spending, and the uncut CBO defense baseline for the next decade. That is, the GOP is so enthrall to its warmongering neocon majority that it can’t even talk about spending control with a straight face, as underscored by national defense spending levels since Obama left office.
The schedule below computes to a 52% expansion in just seven years, with Biden getting his full request for FY 2024 under the McCarthy deal.
As it happens, the subsequent FY 2024-2033 spending total for national defense according to the CBO projection is now $10 trillion. The deal does not reduce that by one red cent, either.
In this context it might be noted that FY 2024 defense outlays rise by 11.5% versus the 3.3% gain in defense budget authority advertised for the deal. Of course, that’s because the budgetary tricksters on Capitol Hill never stop their con job.
In fact, the uniparty raised defense budget authority by a whopping $76 billion or 9.7% in FY 2023, which base was incorporated into the more modest gain for FY 2024. But, alas, the cash outlays (which lag) from the FY 2023 appropriations eruption will happen notwithstanding the deal’s budget authority cap for FY 2024.
Back on the farm, that was called closing the barn door after the horses already left.
OMB Record of National Defense Outlays, FY 2017 to FY 2023 and McCarthy Deal Amount for FY 2024:
FY 2017: $599 billion;
FY 2018: $631 billion;
FY 2019: $686 billion;
FY 2020: $725 billion;
FY 2021: $754 billion;
FY 2022: $766 billion;
FY 2023: $815 billion;
FY 2024P: $909 billion.
With respect to the heart of the budget—entitlements and mandatories—the deal is about as pathetic as could be imagined. The CBO base line total for the 10-year window is $48.3 trillion and we doubt whether the deal would even save $10 billion. That’s 0.02% if anyone is computing.
Actually, as it turns out, CBO is counting. And it concludes that the new exemptions from the food stamps work requirement for veterans, homeless people and young people leaving foster care will cost more than the savings from raising the age cut off for everyone else.
That is to say, the GOP negotiators started with -$130 billion of CBO certified savings in the House based bill and ended up with a +$2 billion increase over 10-years!
And McCarthy says he’s bending the trajectory? Bending over, bar of soap at the ready, is more like it.
Alas, the liberals are no better. They are whining to high heaven about this sensible increase in the working age to 54 years, yet this change would only impact 700,000 able bodied adults, who constitute just 1.7% of current food stamp enrollments.
Indeed, here is a list of the major entitlement programs which are left unscathed by the McCarthy deal. They account for 98% of the CBO baseline for mandatories/entitlements over the FY 2024- 2033:
10-Year Baseline Spending That The McCarthy Deal Leaves Unscathed:
Social Security: $18.8 trillion;
Medicare: $14.8 trillion;
Medicaid, Obamacare and Child Health: $8.0 trillion;
Veterans Disability and Comp: $3.0 trillion;
Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Credit: $0.9 trillion;
Aid to Aged, Blind and Disabled: $0.7 trillion; • Military retirement: $0.9 trillion;
Total Mandatories Unscathed: $47.1 trillion;
% of CBO Mandatories Baseline: 98%;
As it turns out, the only cuts in the entire entitlement universe contained in the McCarthy deal pertain to the aforementioned foods stamps and family assistance programs, where baseline spending totals about $1.5 trillion over the decade. So our estimated $10 billion cut, which is owing to raising the work requirement for adults without dependents from age 49 to age 54 and excludes the expanded exemptions, amounts to a minuscule 0.7% of the baseline.
Moreover, the resulting hall pass for the remaining $48.29 trillion of built-in mandatory spending was not issued owing to the intransigence of the White House negotiators. Fully 97.3% of the CBO baseline amount for mandatory/entitlement spending was given a no cuts exemption by the GOP caucus, even before they brought their phony “Limit, Save, Grow Act” to the floor last month.
That’s right. The CBO baseline for what amounts to the heart of the Fiscal Doomsday Machine is projected to grow from $3.98 trillion in FY 2023 to $6.14 trillion in FY 2033. And yet the only savings the GOP chose to even table was $130 billion of work requirement savings from Medicaid, foods stamps and family assistance. And when you count the expanded work exemptions, fully 102% of those meager savings were left on the cutting room floor of the White House negotiations.
Then again, an even more complete capitulation occurred on the two items in the original House GOP bill that actually saved a meaningful amount of money. For instance, the GOP cancellation of Biden’s student debt forgiveness plan would have saved $320 billion according to CBO, which savings evaporated to $0.0 billion under the McCarthy deal.
Likewise, there could be no greater blow for free market efficiency and fiscal sanity than the House GOP’s original provision to cancel the ridiculously generous tax credits for overwhelmingly inefficient solar, windmill and electrification investments. These measures designed to save the planet from the phony Climate Crisis were originally guesstimated to cost $270 billion over 10-years when Biden’s so-called Inflation Reduction Act was passed last year.
But in response to the House-passed debt ceiling plan in late April, Congress’ official tax scorekeeper, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), updated its estimates, pegging the costs at $570 billion from 2023 to 2033, or roughly double its original estimate. And that’s nothing compared to a new estimate from researchers at the Brookings Institution, which puts the revenue loss at more than $1 trillion over the coming decade.
So. Pray tell what did McCarthy’s pitiful negotiators do in response to the good news that the House-approved plan would shrink the deficit by up to $1 trillion over a decade?
Why, they effectively said, “just kidding!”
We will keep bashing these senseless give-aways out on the political hustings, but all the green energy interest groups can keep sending their bribe money to the Dems because these huge tax subsidies will remain in place.
As we said, the Stupid Party is driving toward a cliff with its eyes-wide shut.
We truly cannot believe that a majority of the GOP House caucus is bone-headed enough to fall for the McCarthy deal. But if they do the GOP will have forfeited the last chance to stop the nation’s rush toward fiscal armageddon.
Indeed, if the plan is approved the debt ceiling will take its place along side of budget resolutions and annual appropriations bills in the dead letter office of fiscal governance. The only thing the “compromise” pretends to cut is domestic discretionary appropriations excluding veterans health care and when all the gimmicks are peeled away, the IRS, too.
The GOP claims they froze FY 2024 nondefense appropriations below the FY 2023 level, but the so-called freeze is actually loophole-ridden in the fine print and is not binding after FY 2025. And, not surprisingly, these unenforceable “targets” for the out-years (FY 2026-2033) account for 90% of the purported “savings”.
Holy moly. At least the 2011 debt ceiling deal had a 10-year enforcement mechanism based on automatic sequestration. As it happened they loop-holed their way around these caps with “emergency” spending and other exempt gimmicks, and even then the result was a blithering joke.
In return for the debt ceiling increase, appropriated defense and nondefense spending was to be limited to $8.45 trillion over the next 10-years.The actual level, as it turned out, was $10.60 trillion. That is to say, these fakers missed their targets by $2.15 trillion or 25% over the period!
As it also turned out, once the GOP got back into the White House and took partial control of Congress, nondefense discretionary spending literally went into orbit. Here is the path from Obama’s FY 2017 outgoing budget to FY 2023. That’s up by 53%, and now these cats have the gall to call it a freeze!
Non-defense Discretionary Outlays:
FY 2017: $610 billion;
FY 2018: $639 billion;
FY 2019: $661 billion;
FY 2020 $914 billion;
FY 2021 $895 billion;
FY 2022: $912 billion;
FY 2023: $936 billion;
6-Year Increase: +53%
And yet, and yet. The GOP clowns in the US House now want to count enforcement-free savings from eight years of outyear “targets” that no one in Washington—-and we mean no one—intends to observe.
As we said, the “compromise deal” is a hideous joke, and Kevin McCarthy truly does have sawdust for brains and a Twizzlers stick for a backbone.
There is no other way to interpret the facts. In fact, just five months into his Speakership, McCarthy has already earned his place on the Wall of Shame right along side of Speaker John Boehner and Speaker Paul Ryan.
II) USA DATA/
Jobless claims at 18 month highs
(zerohedge)
Jobless Claims Data Hovers Near 18-Month High, Ignores Soaring Layoffs
THURSDAY, JUN 01, 2023 – 08:38 AM
232k Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time last week, very modestly higher than the 230k print the prior week (but below the 235k exp).
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing claims remain below the 1.8mm Maginot Line (1.795mm).
The claims data – post-revisions – remains oddly flat at around 18-month highs, refusing to listen to layoffs data (and slowing wage growth).
This is not what The Fed wants to see (after 500bps of hikes).
With a six-month lag, are we about to see another rebound higher in claims data?
END
The ADP report is always ebullient. They report bigger than expected job gains but slowing wage growth. Pay no attention to this
(zerohedge)
ADP Reports Bigger Than Expected Jobs Gains, Slowing Wage Growth
THURSDAY, JUN 01, 2023 – 08:27 AM
Against expectations of a +170k print, the ADP Employment Report shows that the US economy added 278k jobs
Source: Bloomberg
The second big beat on a row…
Source: Bloomberg
Job growth is strong while pay growth continues to slow. But gains in private employment were fragmented last month, with leisure and hospitality, natural resources, and construction taking the lead. Manufacturing and finance lost jobs.
Only large businesses saw job losses…
ADP’s Neel Richardson comments that:
“This is the second month we’ve seen a full percentage point decline in pay growth for job changers. Pay growth is slowing substantially, and wage-driven inflation may be less of a concern for the economy despite robust hiring.”
Last month brought a broad-based slowdown in pay increases. Job changers saw a gain of 12.1 percent, down a full percentage point from April. For job stayers, the increase was 6.5 percent in May, down from 6.7 percent.
Finally, we note that Challenger Grey showed layoffs rising at 287% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
So a mixed bag for Fed-watchers – jobs hot (bad), wages cooling (good).
end
This is a hard data report: uSA Manufacturing PMI surveys signaling renewed deterioration of business
conditions in May as orders and prices plunge
(zerohedge)
US Manufacturing Surveys Signal “Renewed Deterioration Of Business Conditions” In May, Orders/Prices Plunge
THURSDAY, JUN 01, 2023 – 10:04 AM
With overall macro data serially surprising to the downside in May, it is no surprise that expectations were for sub-50 (contractionary) prints for ISM & PMI Manufacturiung surveys this morning.
Manufacturing PMI slipped from its flash 48.5 level to 48.4 final in May, down from 50.2 in April (the 6th month below 50 of the last 7)
ISM Manufacturing also disappointed, falling from 47.1 to 46.9 (below 47.0 exp) – the 7th straight month below 50.
Source: Bloomberg
The good news – prices paid plunged back into contraction.
The bad news – new orders plunged to their biggest contraction since COVID lockdowns…
“May saw a renewed deterioration of business conditions in the US manufacturing economy which will add to concerns about broader economic health and recession risks.
“Although a record improvement in supplier delivery performance helped manufacturers fulfil back orders in May, generating a third successive monthly rise in output, the overall rate of production growth remained disappointingly meagre thanks to a further drop in new order inflows.
“Unless demand picks up, production growth will move into decline seen as it is clearly unsustainable to rely solely on backlogs of orders, which are now being depleted at the fastest rate for three years. Hence companies are cutting back sharply on their input buying and seeking to minimise inventory, tightening their belts for tough times ahead.
“All of this is of course disinflationary, with manufacturers and their supply chains having seen pricing power shift rapidly from the seller to the buyer over the course of the past year, resulting in a dramatic cooling of industrial price pressures.
“We are likely to see further downward pressure on both output and prices for goods in the coming months, thanks to the demand environment which has been hit by higher interest rates, the increased cost of living, economic uncertainty and a post-pandemic shift in spend from goods to services.
Finally, Williamson notes that the one area of resilience is the labour market, “as firms continued to take on more staff to fill long-empty vacancies, though we should bear in mind that employment is typically a lagging indicator. It does nevertheless point to some upward pressure on wages.”
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Giant Grocery Store operation struggles to survive amid wave of thefts. They have 160 stores in the East
(zerohedge)
Major Grocery Chain Struggles To Survive Amid Wave Of Thefts
WEDNESDAY, MAY 31, 2023 – 06:25 PM
A grocery chain which operates primary on the East Coast says it’s taking measures to stay in business amid rampant retail theft and crime across the US.
According to Kress, retail theft has increased “tenfold in the last five years,” which is not “an understatement,” while violence has “increased exponentially.”
“The last thing I want to do is close stores,” Kress continued. “But I’ve got to be able to run them safely and profitably.”
According to Kress, the nature of shoplifting has changed such that more and more retailers are simply allowing it – like Lulu Lemon, which recently fired two employees for calling the police on repeat looters.
“We used to chase shoplifters,” said Kress. “And you’d get the product back, and nobody would ever fight you.”
“I didn’t worry about somebody pulling a knife or gun on me [40] years ago,” he said.
The trend, which industry experts say is in its beginning stages, could foreshadow a further emptying of downtowns already wounded by the pandemic. Although retail vacancy rates for dense urban centers have been declining over the past decade, figures from real estate data firm CoStar show the numbers inching up in some cities. -WaPo
“For the big box and the grocery [stores], which are trying to optimize a single-digit margin, it is very difficult to operate, and you will see more and more exits happening,” said Lakshman Lakshmanan, senior director in Alvarez & Marsal’s consumer and retail group. “We’re seeing the highest level of organized retail crime and theft ever.“
According to Kres, thieves have moved from swiping cigarettes to other goods.
“It’s continued to escalate,” he said. “So now it’s Tide and Dove and razor blades and Olay, or roasts or shrimp or crab legs.“
According to the retail federation, incidents of organized retail crime increased in 2021 by an average of 26.5% – with store owners blaming organized retail crime for around half of the $94.5 billion lost that year due to retail shrink (stolen merchandise).
Other retailers taking similar measures
According to the report, REI – which will close its Portland, OR location next year after nearly two decades, spent over $800,000 in 2022 on additional security at that location alone. This included new windows with security glass, around-the-clock patrols, better outdoor lighting and a new security camera system, per the Post.
“I was kind of surprised at the amount of effort that went into trying to mitigate the situation,” said Chris Torossian, former manager in the bakery department at the company’s San Francisco location.
Theft occurred “pretty much daily,” Torossian added, and he frequently heard from co-workers who felt unsafe. Team members were instructed not to chase or accuse shoplifters. In one instance, someone threw a cup of hot coffee on an employee’s face after they confronted the individual for stealing the drink, Torossian said. He also heard of instances where thieves brandished knives.
In April, the company said it was closing the location “for the time being” to “ensure the safety of our Team Members.” -WaPo
“We have the police come to our stores … they’ll take the information, they’ll record it,” said Torossian. “But there’s really nothing being done with that, because they had two homicides that were a bank robbery and two shootings. So it’s like, where are they going to focus their time and attention?”
In May, Target CEO Brian Cornell told investors and analysts; “Beyond macroeconomic challenges, we continue to contend with significant headwinds caused by inventory shrink, building on a worsening trend that emerged last year. While shrink can be driven by multiple factors, theft and organized retail crime are increasingly urgent issues, impacting the team, and our guests and other retailers.”
“The problem affects all of us, limiting product availability, creating a less convenient shopping experience, and put[s] our team and guests in harm’s way. The unfortunate fact is, violent incidents are increasing at our stores and across the entire retail industry. And when products are stolen, simply put, they’re no longer available for guests who depend on them. And left unchecked, theft, and organized retail crime to grade the communities we call home,” he continued.
Maybe stop voting for those soft-on-crime Soros DAs?
end
if Goldman is feeling it, rest assured the entire economy is faltering
(zerohedge)
Goldman Slumps To 2-Mo Lows Amid Collapse In Trading Revenue, More Job Cuts Coming
THURSDAY, JUN 01, 2023 – 12:50 PM
Goldman Sachs – not a regional bank – is trading at its lowest since March this morning after tumbling following comments from Goldman President John Waldron warning investors of a sharp slowdown in its investment bank.
At a conference hosted by AllianceBernstein, Waldron said the bank’s trading business is trending down more than 25% this quarter compared with a year ago, describing capital-markets activity as “sluggish.”
Goldman is working on what would be its third round of job cuts in under a year, Bloomberg News reported earlier this week, and Waldron confirmed:
“We are now embarking on additional targeted action with our headcount,” adding that “we are preparing for a tougher environment.”
In February, Goldman Sachs outlined plans for about $1 billion in expense reductions. Waldron said the bank is on target to achieve that goal.
Goldman stock is trading back near its post-SVB lows…
Waldron’s comments follow Morgan Stanley Co-President Andy Saperstein yesterday offering a gloomy forecast for the bank’s sales and trading and dealmaking operations.
“Sales and trading is softer this quarter,” he said. “Results will be notably down year-over-year.”
Saperstein also said investment banking is “very challenged. As an industry we have been in a sustained trough since last year.”
Finally, Goldman’s Waldron note that he is seeing “a pretty risk-off tone” from its clients with corporate CEOs pretty cautious.
“Feels like we are going to have a contractionary environment for a period of time.”
But, but, but, A.I.!
END
TARGET
Please pray tell how stupid could companies get? Target plunges for 10th day in a row as boycott leads to traffic weakness.
(zerohedge)
Target Plunges For 10th Day As Boycott Leads To “Traffic Weakness”, JPM Downgrade Adds To Groom And Doom
enough headaches on its plate with a nationwide boycotting campaign targeting the grooming-friendly retailer sending its sales tumbling after it too was Budlighted, one can also add a JPM downgrade (from Overweight to Neutral) and price target cut (from $182 to $144) into the mix.
In a note from JPM Chris Hoovers, he explains that he is downgrading TGT to Neutral based on the following:
(1) The consumer is broadly weakening while the share of wallet shift away from goods (51% of TGT sales) is ongoing.
(2) Disinflation in grocery (~40% of sales ex beauty and including essentials) continues to accelerate, eating into the ballast of TGT’s recent slightly positive to negative LSD SSS trend. TGT comped +HSD in grocery and +LSD in essentials in 1Q, adding 2-3 points to total 1Q SSS vs. the overall flat comp. However, JPM’s projection suggests this tailwind could be close to nil by 4Q. Even beauty (estimated at ~10% of sales) is slowing on a 1Y basis per Nielsen .
(3) While still positive on a 3Y basis, TGT has been giving back share on a 1Y view and this share loss could accelerate into back to school and linger into holiday given consumer pressures and what JPM tactfully calls “recent company controversies.” This, the bank says, could turn TGT’s traffic negative after an impressive run of 12 consecutive positive quarters. This shift is “generally bad for retail stock valuation given attribution is highest at the topline and, particularly for traffic.”
(4) JPM notes that TGT over-indexes to the millennial customer and, should student loan payments come back on – which they are about to, as we discussed recently – the company is more exposed than others in JPM’s coverage. Buyside client expectations are in the $6-8MM per month consumer outflow range should this happen, which represents a potential 1-2 point comp headwind to retail spending which is material given the baseline comp discussed above.
(5) Google search surges in states representing ~37% of its stores with the biggest uptick in the south central and south Atlantic (guess what people are searching). JPM examined Google Trends data to see which states have seen the greatest increase in relative search frequency for ̆Target Corporation ̇ over the last week (5/24/23 – 5/31/23) vs. the period from (5/25/22 -4/30/23). Using 8 as the mendoza line to measure the potential for a negative reaction, the states where search surged represent ~37% of its store base.
(6) Finally, TGT share gains have been reverting. As seen below, TGT has been giving back share as other retailers opened and the consumer got back into stores and started dressing up for events. Despite 1Y headwinds, the trend has remained positive on a 3Y basis but this could be at increased risk given the above.
Meanwhile, as Wells Fargo also opines this morning, the controversy around Target’s collection of LGBTQ-themed merchandise for Pride Month “adds uncertainty to a stock that already had earnings risk amid a pullback in discretionary spending.”
Most importantly Wells analyst Edward Kelly writes that “there is early evidence of some financial impact, with Placer.ai data signaling incremental traffic weakness in the week ended May 28″
“Traffic has been a key bright spot for TGT as it struggled with margin issues, and a slowdown would be negative”, obviously.
As a result, TGT stock is down for a 10th session in its longest losing streak since February 2000, and together with Tranheuser Bush should serve as a great lesson for any other corporations who seek to alienate the bulk of consumers (especially those who don’t live on government handouts) just to cater to a very mentally unstable 0.5% of the population.
CHICK-A-FILS
Amazing how many great companies are falling for this garbage of diversity equity and inclusion etc.
(Phillips/EpochTimes)
Chick-fil-A Faces Growing Backlash Over ‘Diversity, Equity, And Inclusion’ Efforts
In a previously issued Chick-fil-A news release, the company said that Erick McReynolds serves as its vice president of DEI,saying: “Chick-fil-A restaurants have long been recognized as a place where people know they will be treated well. Modeling care for others starts in the restaurant, and we are committed to ensuring mutual respect, understanding, and dignity everywhere we do business.”
DEI is a set of principles that large corporations, government agencies, and schools have increasingly incorporated into their work environments, often mandating employees receive such training. However, these principles are rooted in Marxism, according to prominent critics including Christopher Rufo and James Lindsay, that are essentially vehicles for “left-wing racialist ideology and partisan political activism.”
“They are designed to replace the system of academic merit with a system of race-based preferences and discrimination—which, in many cases, explicitly violates federal civil rights law,” wrote Rufo for his Substack page earlier this year.
The Chick-fil-A announcement was highlighted this week by several prominent conservative accounts. According to McReynolds’s LinkedIn page, he was hired as Chick-fil-A’s vice president for “Diversity, Equity [and] Inclusion” in late 2021.
“We have a problem,” wrote Joey Mannarino, a conservative host in highlighting Chick-fil-A’s prior announcement, on Twitter Tuesday morning. “Chick-Fil-A just hired a VP of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion. This is bad. Very bad. I don’t want to have to boycott. Are we going to have to boycott?”
He also wrote: “The Left is going crazy again over the Chick-fil-A boycott that conservatives are considering. They’re mad because we’ve FINALLY gotten effective at boycotts. Any company that is pushing the trans stuff on our kids or the DEI stuff, we are going to pick the worst offenders.”
“So Chick-fil-A has a diversity, equity and inclusion division,” added columnist Todd Starnes on Tuesday. “Well, that explains the fried cauliflower sandwiches and kale salad.”
By Tuesday afternoon, Lindsay wrote on Twitter that he agreed with the boycott calls and made demands. “We must demand that Chick-fil-A fire their entire ESG and Sustainability staff and partners (including DEI), referring to the left-wing environmental, social, and governance framework.
“Ideally we get them to confess how they got caught up in the racket, and then we return support,” he added. “Conservatives might actually be able to pull this one off.”
The chicken-based fast-food chain has been generally well respected among conservatives due to the company’s religious values and its prior support for religious groups. In the McReynolds DEI announcement, Chick-fil-A makes reference to its corporate purpose, which is “to glorify God by being a faithful steward of all that is entrusted to us” and “to have a positive influence on all who come into contact with Chick-fil-A.”
The Epoch Times has contacted Chick-fil-A for comment.
Backlash Growing
In recent weeks, a number of companies have faced backlash for embracing what critics say are left-wing values or a pro-LGBT agenda. Since early April, Bud Light has seen a significant backlash after it produced a beer can with transgender activist and influencer Dylan Mulvaney’s face and as Mulvaney suggested a partnership with the brand.
Conservatives and traditionalists are often exasperated at the ongoing woke cultural revolution in their midst.
How can America be turned upside down, as it is, when there is little public support for the things happening around us?
They don’t see much backing for the current border policy and illegal immigration, yet it continues.
Conservatives feel that most Americans reject the trend of biological men dominating female sporting events.
They fear American jurisprudence has become now vastly weaponized and warped.
Certainly, former President Donald Trump will be more likely indicted by a politicized New York City prosecutor for supposedly overvaluing his net worth over a decade ago than would be a current violent street criminal clubbing a subway commuter.
In 2020 torching a federal courthouse or massing at the White House grounds, in efforts to get at the president, earned either few arrests and little or no jail time. In 2021, if one entered the Capitol and illegally paraded around like a buffoon, he could get a five-year prison sentence.
Traditionalists feel that sky-high energy prices, out-of-control urban crime, a depressed economy, high interest rates, and a politicized FBI, CIA, Justice Department, and Pentagon are all needlessly self-created messes.
How then did these extremist policies that have little popular support become institutionalized?
Conservatives, by their nature and unlike the Left, are more inclined to accept existing institutions rather than to radically alter or destroy them.
They were asleep at the wheel in 2020, when left-wing-funded lawsuits radically transformed Election Day in many states into a mere construct. Some 70 percent of the electorate in key precincts voted by mail or early, with far fewer ballot audits or authentication.
They focus on nominating more conservative judges, not packing the court itself. They work to take back the Senate, not to end the filibuster or bring in two new states with four new senators.
Traditionalists often feel they have no time for politics. They prefer to focus on their families, jobs, communities, and churches. Until recently they shunned organized boycotts. They abhor massing outside the homes of left-wing politicians and judges.
They shrug and concede that universities, teachers, government unions, the corporate boardroom, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, the media, entertainment, and professional sports are hopelessly activist and left-wing.
The environmental, social, governance (ESG), diversity, equity, and inclusion, and LGBQT+ agendas were unfathomable acronyms to Middle America and thus mostly ignored.
So conservatives often slept through the woke revolution.
Yet suddenly they realize their apathy allowed the country to descend into something the nation’s founders never imagined or intended, and antithetical to what most knew as America just a couple of decades ago.
So conservatives are awakening from their slumber. And they are discovering that they too can boycott, agitate — and roar.
The woke Target corporation in just a few days has suffered a more than $10 billion loss in its stock value.
Millions of shoppers shunned its 2,000 stores after the chain showcased its “pride” apparel. The displays featured “tuck pieces” — veritable codpieces — that are intended to facilitate “women’s” male genitalia.
Anheuser-Busch came up with the bright idea that it would highlight Dylan Mulvaney, a transgender performance activist, to hawk its Bud Light brand. But beer seemed incidental to the self-absorbed Mulvaney’s fixation on promoting transgenderism. So Bud Light-drinking, red-state America got turned off by Mulvaney’s in-your-face-advocacy.
An ensuing informal boycott cost the company nearly $16 billion in lost stock value. Hundreds of millions of dollars of unsellable light beer stagnated. Stores can’t even give it away. Meanwhile, Bud Light’s competitors coped with meeting record Memorial Day consumer demand.
Ditto the defiantly woke Disney Corporation.
The now politically activist entertainment corporation insisted on pushing woke agendas down the throats of its family-centered audience.
The result? Its online entertainment services are bleeding millions of subscribers. Disney stock has lost $16 billion in value. Its overpriced theme parks no longer count on continual increased attendance.
Sometimes traditionalists prefer simply to drop out rather than boycott wokeism. One result is that the Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony awards now have a fraction of their previous televised audience.
In 1998 — when the United States had a population of 275 million — the NBA finals earned on average 29 million television viewers. This year the NBA bragged its finals averaged a pathetic 4 million viewers in a contemporary America of 335 million.
The Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team reinvited the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence — a self-identified performance art “queer” group — to headline the team’s “pride night.”
The all-male “sisters” usually put on anti-Catholic pornographic skits that mock Jesus Christ and sexualize Christian rituals.
That Dodger indulgence is not going over well with its fan base, especially the city’s millions of Catholic Latinos.
The woke Left still enjoys enormous advantages over the Right.
The bicoastal elite has far more money, controls all the major American institutions, and dominates the dissemination of knowledge through the media and Silicon Valley.
But the Left does not enjoy majority public support. And now it has managed the impossible — to goad the normally comatose conservative dragon to awaken.
And it is just starting to breathe fire.
END
USA// COVID
SWAMP STORIES
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report June 1, 2023 Issue 7002
Independent View of the News
Yesterday, disappointing Japanese and Chinese economic data weighed on Asian bourses.Japan April Retail Sales 5% y/y, 7.1% exp, March revised to 6.9% from 7.2%Japan April Retail Sales -1.2% m/m, +0.5% exp, March revised o 0.3% m/m from 0.6%Japan April Industrial Production -0.4% m/m, +1.4% exp, 1.1% priorJapan April Industrial Production -0.3% y/y, +2.0% exp, -0.6% priorJapan April Housing Starts -11/9% y/y (771k), -0.8% (868k) exp, -3.2% (877k) priorChina May Mfg PMI 48.8, 49.5 exp, 49.2 priorChina May Non-Mfg PMI 54.5, 55.2 exp, 56.4 prior UK food inflation dips in May, raising hopes rate of price growth is slowing British Retail Consortium says rate fell from 15.7% to 15.4% even as rise in overall shop price growth hits fresh high… Fresh-food inflation, which has rocketing after spectacular increases in the price of sausages, milk, cheese and eggs, fell from 17.8% to 17.2%… The government is working on plans for a voluntary price cap(AKA price controls) on essential items such as bread and milk, but the proposal has been criticised by retail groups as ineffectual… Non-food inflation hit 5.8% in May, up from 5.5% in April… Overall, retailers increased prices by 9%, up slightly from 8.8% in April, pushing shop price growth to a fresh high… https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/30/uk-food-inflation-falls-in-may-raising-hopes-prices-may-have-peaked
@townhallcom: OMB Director Shalanda Young: “If you really wanna do big deficit reduction, where’s the revenue?!” (Biden leftist destroys myth of non-political OMB!) https://t.co/IWQF3gNQC9
@greg_price11: @RepDanBishop says that it was McCarthy himself who made the call to increase the debt ceiling by $4 trillion until Jan 1, 2025: “It wasn’t even asked for by the Democrats… That’s a $4 trillion increase in debt that we just let [Biden] have and the Speaker made the call.”https://t.co/sgAeCMzVxE
McCarthy Admits He Hasn’t Seen 89% of the Budget from His Deal With Biden McCarthy: “We only got to look at 11% of the budget to find these cuts. We have to look at the entire budget.” “Why didn’t you see the whole budget?” Fox’s Harris Faulkner asked. “Because the president walled off all the others… Discretionary spending makes up nearly 30% of the federal budget, and McCarthy appears to have admitted that he was not able to see 64% of the discretionary budget before agreeing to the deal… https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/watch-mccarthy-admits-he-hasnt-seen-89-of-the-budget-from-his-deal-with-biden-mace/
Speaker McCarthy, in a desperate attempt to resurrect his image and standing with House Republicans, said he would appoint a commission to study US federal spending. You can’t make this crap up! You need a commission to ascertain if the US federal government is spending too much?!?!?
Jamie Dimon on BBG: “Rates may have to go up a little more, people should be a little prepared for that.”https://t.co/fW1gXbXQyz
US Economic Data released on WednesdayMay Chicago PMI 40.4, 47.3 exp, 48.6 priorApril JOLTS Job Openings 10.103m, 9.4m exp, March revised to 9.745m from 9.59mMay Dallas Fed Services Activity -17.3, -14.4 prior The jump in job openings increased the odds of a June rate hike and future Fed rate hikes. Retail and healthcare led the increase in JOLTS Job Openings. Quits fell 0.1 to 2.4%. Hiring remained at 3.9%.
ESMs traded marginally lower when the Nikkei opened. Eventually they had a modest rally. However, the disappointing Japanese and Chinese economic data thwarted plays to manipulate stuff higher to game May performance. ESMs sank until China closed at 2 ET.
The rally for the European open then commenced. ESMs and stocks rallied until 5:43 ET. The ensuing decline ended (9:03 ET) with the rally for the NYSE opening. The usual early buyers were abetted by May performance gamers; they drove ESMs 12 handles higher by 9:45 ET. The strong April JOLTS Job Openings jolted bulls and schemers. ESMs sank until 10:35 ET. It was time for the 2nd Hour Reversal.
After a modest rally, ESMs and stocks fell to new lows. A bottom appeared at the 11:30 ET European close. ESMs and stocks then drifted higher in lackluster trading. ESMs jumped when Fed VCEO to be Jefferson and Philadelphia Fed President Harker advocated skipping a rate hike in June to access economic data. The odds of a Fed rate hike in June tumbled to 28% from 72%.
The rally ended minutes before the 14:15 ET VIX Fix. ESMs and stocks rolled over and went inert until the late manipulation to game May performance began near 15:30 ET. The rally ended at 15:46 ET. ESMs and stocks sank into the close. ESMs declined 16 handles by 16:04 ET.
@jessefelder: ‘The Nasdaq 100 Index, when measured as a ratio of the Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks, is at its highest level since the dot-com era more than 20 years ago.’ https://t.co/sMfdfRYwHA
OPEC May Oil Output Falls by 460,000 BPD from April to 28.01M BPD after Saudi Arabia and Other Pledge Voluntary Cuts – Reuters
Positive aspects of previous session Bonds rallied moderately Afternoon rally on Fed officials’ advocation of Fed rate hike pause in June
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks and ESMs declined (instead of rallying) for month end
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Bonds up, most stocks and commodities down: more defensive asset allocation?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4180.57 Previous session High/Low: 4195.44; 4166.15
Epstein Pal Jes Staley Throws Jamie Dimon Under the Bus, Setting Stage for Massive Legal Battle Dimon maintains he had no such conversations, the Wall Street Journal reports, while Staley claims he knew about Epstein’s sex trafficking operation and that he regrets his friendship with Epstein… he and Dimon communicated when Epstein was arrested in 2006 and 2008… Staley also claims that Dimon communicated with him several times through 2012 about whether to maintain Epstein as a client… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/epstein-pal-jes-staley-throws-jamie-dimon-under-bus-setting-stage-massive-legal
Today – Traders will play for upward bias from start of the month buying, abetted by the notion that the Fed will NOT hike rates at its June 13-14 soiree. The key will be the presence or absence of defensive asset allocators. ESMs are +6.00 and USMs are +5/32 at 20:30 ET.
Expected economic data: May ADP Employment Change 170k; Q1 Nonfarm Productivity -1.5%, Unit Labor Costs +6.1%; Initial Jobless Claims 235k, Continuing Claims 1.8m; May S&P Global US Mfg PMI 48.5; May ISM Mfg 47, Prices Paid 52.3; April Construction Spending 0.2% m/m; May Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.3m; Phil Fed Pres Harker 13:00 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4110; 100-day MA: 4060; 150-day MA: 4008; 200-day MA: 3975 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,329; 100-day MA: 33,341; 150-day MA: 33,331; 200-day MA: 32,768 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
More bizarre Trump behavior has some cult members questioning his mental state.
Trump slams his former press secretary Kayleigh McEnany: ‘RINOS & Globalists can have her’ Trump slammed his former press secretary Kayleigh McEnany for providing what he called the “wrong poll numbers” while on Fox News…”Kayleigh ‘Milktoast’ McEnany just gave out the wrong poll numbers on FoxNews. I am 34 points up on DeSanctimonious, not 25 up… https://t.co/jVC7FfxyiR
McEnany did yeoman work defending DJT from the daily MSM onslaught. But Trump has a history of denigrating ex-employees, staffers, and supporters – though DJT regularly pontificates about ‘loyalty.’ Slamming the endearing McEnany for citing ‘wrong poll numbers’ upset numerous DJT cult members.
DeSantis slights Trump during 2024 Iowa campaign kickoff: ‘Not about entertainment’ “At the end of the day, leadership is not about entertainment, it’s not about building a brand, it’s not about virtue signaling. It is about results,” DeSantis told the crowd… https://t.co/RZaBGvJSEb
Ron DeSantis vows to send Biden ‘back to his basement,’ rips debt-ceiling deal in Iowa campaign kickoff – “This is greenlighting $4 trillion in new debt in less than two years. It took us almost 200 years to get to $4 trillion in debt in the first place. It locks in inflated COVID-era levels of spending. And it keeps 98% of the 87,000 new IRS agents that Joe Biden instituted.”… https://t.co/648z2ELlw1
@DeSantisWarRoom: DeSantis responds to Trump saying Cuomo did better with COVID: “Yes, the criticism is ridiculous. But it is an indication the former president would double down on his lockdowns from March of 2020.” https://twitter.com/DeSantisWarRoom/status/1663908913425645574
After John Durham bombshell, judge breathes new life into Clinton Foundation whistleblower case U.S. Tax Court asks for new motions this summer from whistleblowers, IRS in aftermath of precedent-setting rulings… U.S. Tax Court Judge David Gustafson has already once before denied an IRS request to dismiss the whistleblower case, first brought in 2017. And three years ago, he ordered the tax agency to reveal whether it criminally investigated the foundation, citing a mysterious “gap” in its records… https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/after-john-durham-bombshell-judge-breathes-new-life-clinton
WSJ Editorial Board: Another Shoot-’em-Up Memorial Day Weekend in Chicago The city’s new mayor attributes shootings to the ‘trauma’ of disinvestment. The shootings occurred even as the mayor visited neighborhoods with a plea to keep the city safe. He favors what he calls a “holistic” approach to fighting crime, which means funding community groups. “Poverty didn’t go away over the weekend,” Mr. Johnson said. “Communities have been disinvested in and traumatized” and “you are seeing the manifestation of that trauma.” Yes, he actually said that, which goes a long way to explaining why gunmen patrol the streets with impunity.Does the mayor have a date when he thinks poverty will vanish, the “trauma” will ease, and the shootings stop? Is the July 4 weekend too soon, or will it be Labor Day? His comments reflect the other-worldly nature of Chicago progressives, for whom Mr. Johnson is now the chief spokesman… https://t.co/ZtFhYFV6pY
Chicago City Council approves $51 million in aid for migrants after racially heated debate Alderpersons who voted in favor of migrant funding attempted to validate the concerns of numerous Black residents who spoke out against funding for migrants as their communities continue to face the effects of decades of disinvestment… The city has warned it’s out of money and space to aid the roughly 10,000 asylum-seekers who have arrived in the city since last August… https://www.wbez.org/stories/chicago-city-council-passes-51-million-to-aid-migrants/5b400f87-3368-4637-8e88-6ecafaa9f8f6
Victor Davis Hanson @VDHanson: Why do so many liberal climate-activist grandees fly on private jets? Or why do those who profited from Black Lives Matter have a propensity for estate living? Or why do the community-activist Obamas prefer to live in not one, but three mansions? The answer is that calls for radical equity, “power for the people,” and mandated equality are usually mostly sloganeering for those who enjoy power and the lucre it brings, and their wish is to augment both for themselves. https://victorhanson.com/it-was-always-only-about-power-with-the-left/
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher undergoes public struggle session (analogy to Mao), heads to company reeducation for posting anti-Target and anti-Bud Light storieshttps://t.co/PptKDKroNT
Dodgers pitcher blasts organization for honoring anti-Catholic LGBTQ group. https://fxn.ws/43fm7qK
@robbystarbuck: The MLB Players union @MLBPA has been contacted by players and has now contacted @MLB over concerns players have about teams pushing social/political issues which in turn appear as player endorsements. This has been an ongoing problem and players don’t feel protected.
on Twitter: “Ireland: 200,000 cows to be culled in order to meet climate targets They want us all cold and starving so that they can have complete control over us. https://t.co/CaITfgvWuM” / Twitter
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John LeakeFour Pillars of Pandemic ResponseWatch now (7 min) | By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH Dr. Peter McCullough presented for hundreds of prominent doctors and civic leaders in Panama City on “The Four Pillars of Pandemic Response” and the principles of treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 infection. The “Four Pillars” were originally presented to the US Senate on November 19, 2020, and published late…Read more
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