SEPT 14//GOLD PRICE DOWN $7.70 TO $1699.70//SILVER UP 6 CENTS TO $19.60//PLATINUM UP $15.50 TO $908.75//PALLADIUM UP $36.05 TO $2169.75// PRODUCER PRICES (PPI) A FORERUNNER OF FUTURE INFLATION REPORT: RED HOT!!/COVID UPDATES, DR PAUL ALEXANDER, VACCINE INJURY//ISRAELI GOVERNMENT STUDY ON THE VACCINES SHOW HUGE INJURIES AND THEN THIS WAS HIDDEN//BANK OF JAPAN CONTEMLATING FX INTERVENTION TO SUPPORT THE YEN//EUROPEAN ENERGY PROBLEMS; GERMANY CONTEMPLATING COMPLETE NATIONALIZATION OF UNIPER//USA IS SET FOR A RAILWAY STRIKE//IMPORTANT COMMENTARY RE MARK CABANA ON INTEREST RATE RISES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1699.00 DOWN $7.70 

SILVER: $19.54 UP $0.06 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1697.10

SILVER: $19.63

Bitcoin morning price:  $20,306 UP 98

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,804 DOWN 404

Platinum price closing UP $15.05 AT $908.75

Palladium price; closing UP $36.05  at $2169.75

END

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COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,705.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/13/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/15/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 8
132 C SG AMERICAS 86
323 C HSBC 19
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 16
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 255
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 37
661 C JP MORGAN 616 267
685 C RJ OBRIEN 20
690 C ABN AMRO 28
709 C BARCLAYS 139
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 12
800 C MAREX SPEC 32
905 C ADM 13


TOTAL: 775 775
MONTH TO DATE: 4,664


JPMorgan stopped:   267/775

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  

775 NOTICES FOR 77,500 OZ //2.4105 TONNES

total notices so far: 4664 contracts for 466,400 oz (14.5069 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 23 NOTICES FILED FOR 115,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  6327 :  for 31,635,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.91 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.06

AT THE SLV// ://NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 465.899 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A GIGANTIC SIZED 1170  CONTRACTS TO 135,530.   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.31 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.31) BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 637 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,; HOWEVER WE HAD SOME/MINOR  SPECULATOR LIQUIDATION.(SHORT COVERING)

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) SOME/MINOR/  SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 135,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/(//SOME SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -1577

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 9 days, total 9362  contracts:  46.810 million oz  OR 5.200 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1040 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 46.810  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 46.810 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1170 WITH OUR  $0.31 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 230 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A// MINOR SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 135,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 940 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 4.700MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 23  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  115,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 1965 CONTRACTS  TO 463,674 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:—4411  CONTRACTS.???

.

THE FAIR SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $22.85//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND /STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 27,800 OZ //NEW STANDING 14.5629 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF  $22.85 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 422  OI CONTRACTS 1.315 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2387  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 463,674

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 422 CONTRACTS  WITH 1965 CONTRACTS  DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2387 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 422 CONTRACTS OR 1.315 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2387) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1965): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 422 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 27,800 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

18,236 CONTRACTS OR 1,823,600 OZ OR 56.72 TONNES 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2026 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 56.72 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  56.72/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.60% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 56.72 TONNES (MUCH LESS ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,FELL  BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1170 CONTRACT OI TO 135,530 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 230 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 230  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  230 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1170  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 230  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 940  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.700 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.31

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.25 PTS OR .80%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 479.76 PTS OR 2.48%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 796.01 OR 2.78%.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.51%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.9609//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.9752//    /Oil UP TO 87,19  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.72    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 1965 CONTRACTS TO 463,674 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS FAIR COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG FALL IN PRICE OF $22.85  IN GOLD PRICING  TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2387 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2387 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :2387 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2387 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 422  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2387 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1965  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR STRONG FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $22.85.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT   (14.5629),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  14.5629 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $22,85) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 422 CONTRACTS //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS ADDED TO  THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED GAIN  OF 1.315 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (14.5629 TONNES)

WE HAD 4411  CONTRACTS ADDED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 422 CONTRACTS OR 42200  OZ OR 1.315 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 164,889///  poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  253,548/ fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 14

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oznil oz



 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 1999.900 oz
Delaware
No of oz served (contracts) today775   notice(s)
77,500  OZ
2.4105 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)18 contracts 
1800 oz
0.05598TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month4664 notices
466,400 OZ
14.5069 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

i) Into Delaware:  1999.900 oz

total deposits 1999.900 oz

0 customer withdrawals:

total:  nil oz   

total in tonnes: 0.00 tonnes

Adjustments: 1  Brinks: 

 32,215.302 oz dealer to customer

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an  oi of 793 contracts having GAINED 271 contracts .

We had 7 notices filed on TUESDAY so we  gained  278 contracts or an additional 27,800 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.

October GAINED 869 contracts UP to 43,145 

November GAINED 129 contracts to stand at 189

December LOST 3788 contracts DOWN to 375,233

We had 775 notice(s) filed today for 77,500 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  616 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 775 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 267 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4664) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (SEPT 793 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 775 x 100 oz per contract equals 468200 OZ  OR 14.5629 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON  active month of SEPT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4664) x 100 oz+   (793)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (775} x 100 oz} which equals 468,200 oz standing OR 14.5629 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  14.5629 TONNES  (A GREAT STANDING FOR A SEPT (   NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,422,430.376 oz   75.34 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  27,220,150.593 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,379,878.715  OZ (416.17 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,840,271.878 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,957.448. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 340.82 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 14

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory630,125/707oz

BRINKS

Loomis
JPMorgan









 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 624,461.660 oz
HSBC




 
No of oz served today (contracts)23 CONTRACT(S)
115,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)159 contracts 
(795,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)6327 contracts
 31,635,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  1  deposits into the customer account

i)Into HSBC  624,461.660 oz

total deposit:  624,461.660   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 167.265 million oz/322.196million =51.89% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 3

iii) Out of Loomis:  28,812.007 oz

iv) Out of jPMorgan: 571,813.530 oz

v) Out of Brinks 29,500.170 oz

total: 630,125.707    oz

 adjustments: 2

i) customer to dealer: HSBC 4953.300 oz

ii) dealer to customer Brinks  48,474.90oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 45.903 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 322.136 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 182 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 102 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

129 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 27 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

135,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER GAINED 32 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 567 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED 15 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 47

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 1652 CONTRACTS UP TO 121,126

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 129 for  645,000 oz

Comex volumes:74,106// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 86,127 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  6327 x 5,000 oz = 31,635,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(793) and the number of notices served upon today 23  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,327 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (793)  – number of notices served upon today (23) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 32,430,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 45.903 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 32.430 MILLION OZ represents 70.64% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:64,689// est. volume today//    fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 79,139 contracts ( good)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

  AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES  

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 962.88 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER  UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

  AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//  

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 465.899 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: ECB Inflation Fight Bad News For The Fed

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 07:20 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates another 75 basis points last week. In his podcast, Peter Schiff explained how the ECB inflation fight could create big problems for the Federal Reserve and the US dollar.

The 75-basis point rate hike was a huge ECB standards, but it’s still basically spitting into the ocean when it comes to battling eurozone inflation. European inflation is worse than US inflation. The official CPI came in at a record 9.1% in August. This rate hike brings the eurozone interest rate to 1.25%. Given that it was below zero at the beginning of the year, the ECB is taking a pretty aggressive stance. But even with the hiking, the real interest rate is still -7.85%. That’s not going to slay 9.1% inflation.

Euro weakness has contributed to the high eurozone CPI. The euro traded below parity with the dollar for a good part of last week until a small rally after the ECB announcement. Peter said euro weakness is also one of the reasons US inflation isn’t even higher.

While the eurozone has had to deal with the problem of a weak euro making their inflation stronger, America has had the benefit of a strong dollar making our inflation weaker. So, as bad as our inflation has been, think about how much worse it would have been had the dollar been weak as opposed to strong — at least relative to other currencies.”

Peter said he thinks the tone of the ECB press conference was more significant than the rate hike that was bigger than expected. ECB president Christine Lagarde made it clear she is now firmly in the inflation-fighting camp.

Her rhetoric is very similar to Jerome Powell’s rhetoric in how committed the ECB is to fighting inflation and bringing inflation back down to its 2% target.”

This 2% target represents a subtle but significant shift in ECB policy. Under Mario Draghi, the ECB emphasized a policy of getting inflation close to but always below 2%.

Now, of course, that whole policy made no sense, and nobody questioned it. I never heard a single person at a press conference talk about how ridiculous such a policy was and ask Mario Draghi to explain it. After all, why is 1.9% inflation great, but 2% is a disaster, and so is 1.8? What is the magical number that makes 1.9 the sweet spot? Or is it 1.99? Maybe 1.9 is still too low because you can still get closer to 2% without touching it.”

Peter said this “nonsensical” policy was all about trying to come up with an excuse to continue with an easy money policy to protect eurozone politicians from facing reality and cut government spending.

[The ECB] was trying to bail out European politicians by allowing them to deficit spend, to continue to buy votes with borrowed money, and to make it work, the ECB had to keep borrowed money super-cheap. So, they came up with this ridiculous theory that because inflation was still not quite close enough to 2%, they needed negative interest rates. They needed quantitative easing.”

Two percent was originally conceived of as a ceiling. The original idea was to keep inflation below 2%, not get as close to 2% as possible. As Peter pointed out, getting close to 2% makes no sense. Why is 1% inflation a problem? Nevertheless, when eurozone CPI was running at 1.5%, Draghi insisted it wasn’t enough.

Now, the ECB is faced with an even bigger problem. It has to move the inflation needle down from over 9% back down to 2%.

If it was so difficult to get it up to two from just below, imagine how much more difficult it’s going to be to get it all the way back down from nine-and-a-half to two. And what type of political pain are Europeans going to have to endure as a consequence of this?”

We’re about to find out how much pain Europeans are going to have to do because Lagarde is saying the ECB is going to bring it down come hell or high water.

As Peter noted, the most recent rate hike doesn’t do much to bring the ECB closer to that 2% goal. Lagarde even admitted that the current rate remains accommodative.

If inflation is the problem, and you’re committed to solving it, why are you deliberately making it worse? If you know you have a stimulative monetary policy in the face of much too high inflation … why do you continue to fuel the fire? If Lagarde was really serious about fighting inflation, she would have raised interest rates a lot more than 75 basis points.”

Why would you not raise rates to the level you think they need to be if inflation is really the threat that’s being conveyed?

The reason they’re not doing that is because they can’t do that, which is basically an admission that they can’t really fight inflation either. All they can do is pretend that they’re going to fight inflation.”

In fact, they are in a position very similar to the one the Federal Reserve finds itself in.

Peter said Lagarde seems to be sending a message to eurozone politicians that they had better get their house in order because they can no longer count on the central bank to bail them out.

Keep in mind, unlike the Fed, the ECB is a single mandate bank. Its sole function is price stability. With inflation over 9%, it doesn’t have any wiggle room, regardless of the economic or market pain.

Peter said this could be a “game-changer” for the markets. Up until last week, the Fed was the only of the three major central banks pretending to fight inflation. Now, Japan is the only one still churning out easy money. Japanese inflation remains a bit below that of Europe and the US, giving policymakers there a little time before they have to pivot.

The ECB pivot could have a major impact on the dollar, and Peter said he thinks the euro has seen its lows relative to the greenback. Legarde even conceded that the weak euro was contributing to the inflation problem. That would imply policy going forward will be to strengthen the euro.

If the ECB is really committed to a strong euro to fight inflation, that is a big problem for the United States, which is now going to have to deal with a weaker dollar, which is going to complicate its efforts to fight inflation…

The Fed’s efforts to fight inflation were being helped by the strength of the dollar. But, if now the dollar is going to turn, and it’s going to weaken instead of strengthening, that is going to put upward pressure on US inflation at the same time that it puts some downward pressure on eurozone inflation. And now, the Fed is going to have to fight even harder and the markets are not prepared for that outcome at all.”

In this podcast, Peter also talks about Jerome Powell’s admission that the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path, the fact that the Fed is an enemy of the people, how the UK government will make the energy problem worse, and the lack of new money flowing into crypto.

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

GOLD/SILVER

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

The US Mint Is Selling Gold For 50% Higher Than The Spot Price

NEWS PROVIDED BY

American Bullion, Inc.

September 13, 2022, 16:59 GMT

American Bullion shares insights about the reasons of various precious metals products’ price differences compared to their “Spot” prices

LOS ANGELES, CA, UNITED STATES, September 13, 2022 /EINPresswire.com/ — First of all, what does “spot price” even mean?

Spot prices are most frequently referenced in relation to the price of commodity futures contracts, such as contracts for oil, wheat, or gold, but not the tangible products of gold and silver, such as coins or bars.

When it comes to physical gold, any type of raw bullion needs to be mined and refined, which incurs cost. The greater the purity, the greater the refining cost. And then, the gold bullion needs to be minted into bars or coins (which incurs additional expense, but can also reduce or eliminate the need for assaying at the time of sale). Finally, the finished products then need to be distributed through the supply chain to wholesalers, then retailers and ultimately to the buyers. Remember to add the costs of storage, shipments and insurance during this journey which adds up to the ultimate price tag.

Here’s an example of product cost above spot price. With the day’s spot price listed as $1,705, the United States Mint Website is advertising new uncirculated one-ounce Gold American Eagle coins for sale for $2,570.00 ea. directly to retail buyers.

Besides the beauty of its design, trustworthiness and popularity, American Eagles are also highly preferred for other reasons, such as being a very discreet asset. According to ICTA (Industry Council of Tangible Assets), most products are subject to be reported by IRS Form 1099-B when selling back to dealers over a certain qty/weight. But American Eagle products are not on that list.

Market pricing can be somewhat volatile daily, but is predicated greatly by the market conditions of supply and demand.

This is also a good reason to speak with an experienced precious metals dealer, like American Bullion, who is also a US Mint Listed Dealer. There are a lot of considerations when selecting strategies, as to which metals and type of products are to be held. Additionally, those strategy options can diversify even further, depending on whether they are held in personal possession, or by way of a Gold IRA.

John Reese

American Bullion, Inc.

-END-

.

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: RICE

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.9609

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9752

SHANGHAI CLOSED: DOWN 26.25 PTS OR .80%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 479.76 PTS OR 2.48%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 796.01 PTS OR 2.48% 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MIXED 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  109.30/Euro RISES TO 0.9995

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.249/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 143.31/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.762%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.07% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.91%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.29//

3j Gold at $1730.30 silver at: 19.90  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 21/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 59.69//

3m oil into the 87 dollar handle for WTI and  92 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 143.31DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9612– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9608well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.457  UP 3  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.529 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,25

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Try To Rebound From Biggest Market Rout In Over Two Years

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 07:54 AM

US equity futures are trying to rebound after their biggest plunge in more than two years, when the hotter than expected CPI print wiped out 4.3% or $1.5 trillion in market value from the S&P, and are up a modest 0.2% at 730am ET, erasing most of an earlier gain of 0.6%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7% after the tech-heavy gauge tumbled 5.5% in its worst day since March 2020.  Ahead of today’s PPI print, the Bloomberg dollar index retreated after jumping the most in three months on Tuesday, while 10-year Treasurys ticked higher, hovering near a decade-peak. Oil was flat now that the traders consider $80 as a “Biden Bottom.”

In premarket trading, heavyweight tech stocks posted modest gains a day after the Nasdaq 100 Index saw its biggest decline since March 2020. Apple (AAPL US) +1%, Microsoft (MSFT US) +2%. Other notable movers:

  • Starbucks (SBUX US) shares rise 2.3% in premarket trading after the coffee giant raised its three-year outlook for profit and sales at an annual presentation to investors. Analysts were mostly positive on the upgrades, with Jefferies finding the new three-year targets achievable.
  • Oracle (ORCL US) was initiated as hold at Berenberg as the broker sees balanced opportunities and risks for the software firm, while not expecting a major re-rating over the medium term.

“The equity rally over the past week was based more on sentiment than a material change in the underlying economic drivers,” UBS Global Wealth Management strategists led by Mark Haefele wrote in a note. “Tuesday’s selloff is a reminder that a sustained rally is likely to require clear evidence that inflation is on a downward trend.”

While the magnitude of Tuesday’s drop was indeed historic, and the intraday swing in spoos was one of the top 5 on record…

… the S&P 500 only reversed gains made in the previous four sessions that had been fueled by expectations of a softer reading on the US consumer price index. Investors have been waiting for any sign of peak inflation to come back to the equity market, while the previously discussed lack of a spike in the VIX shows that Tuesday’s selloff was more a recalibration of expectations than panic selling.

“Heading into the August CPI print, a number of traders thought they had information, and positioned very aggressively in the cash equity and derivatives markets,” said Christopher Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo. “It turns out they did not have any real information on CPI (only a hunch based upon recent trends), and now they do not have as much AUM.”

The selling on Tuesday was most acute in the more speculative corners of the market that are particularly sensitive to higher interest rates. Technology falls into this category because the stock prices are based on expected future earnings, which are devalued when interest rates rise. Every single stock on the Nasdaq 100 was in the red on Tuesday, with the Index plunging the most since the world nearly ended in March 2020.

Tuesday’s hot CPI data added to concern the Federal Reserve will need to push interest rates much higher to contain price pressures, with many now expecting a 4.50%-4.75% terminal rate (and in the case of Nomura, a 100bps rate hike) raising the risk of a recession. Now all eyes will be on the Fed decision next week, with swaps traders certain the central bank will raise interest rates three-quarters of a percentage point, and odds of a 100bps hike rising as high as 47% yesterday before easing.

“Multiple compression will continue as long as we have sticky inflation,” said Marija Veitmane, a senior strategist at State Street Global Markets. “Profits will crater. We still see a lot of downside on equities.” She added that central banks need to slow demand and cause pain in the economy to rein in inflation. The longer recession is delayed, the harder it will be, she said, which is true but politicians simply lack to will to enact a massive recession with millions of unemployed workers and is why the Fed will be ordered – soon enough – to reverse.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index slipped about 0.4%, though it pared a deeper drop as retailers gained, led by Inditex SA after the owner of the Zara fashion chain reported a jump in profit. Utilities were the among the worst-performing sectors as the European Commission considers plans to contain the energy crisis, which may include revenue caps. FTSE MIB outperforms peers, adding 0.7%, FTSE 100 lags, dropping 0.7%.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks and bonds tumbled in the wake of the broad-based selloff on Wall Street while the yen strengthened after Japan warned of possible intervention in the currency market. Equity indexes in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia slumped, led by Nikkei which closed down 2.8%. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were also negative amid headwinds from an approaching typhoon and with the US reportedly in early talks on sanctions against China to deter it from invading Taiwan.

Japanese equities tumbled the most in three months, following a broad selloff in the US as inflation data fueled expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy. The Topix fell 2% to close at 1,947.46, while the Nikkei declined 2.8% to 27,818.62. Both gauges slid by the most since June 13. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix loss, decreasing 5.1%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 172 rose and 1,943 fell, while 54 were unchanged. “The content of the CPI data clearly showed that inflation is quite persistent and it’s difficult to see any clear outlook,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, a strategist at Asset Management One. “Wage inflation was seen in a wide range for the service-related sector and there are no signs that it will slow down.”  Inflation Surprise Puts Onus on Fed to Hit Brakes Even Harder Stocks pared losses in late morning trading before retreating again in the afternoon as the yen strengthened about 0.6% against the dollar. The Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan conducted a so-called rate check in the currency market, a move considered a precursor for intervention.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 2.6% to close at 6,828.60, the most decline since June 14, as Asian stocks and bonds tumbled in the wake of the broad-based selloff on Wall Street.  All sectors declined, with banks and mining shares weighing most.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.9% to 11,658.04.

In FX, the yen pulled back from a slide toward the key 145 level versus the dollar after a Nikkei report that the Bank of Japan conducted a so-called rate check with traders to see the price of the currency against the greenback. The finance minister warned he wouldn’t rule out any response if curr ent trends continued. The country’s 10-year bond yield rose to 0.25%, the upper end of the central bank’s policy band. The Bloomberg dollar spot index fell 0.2%. NZD and AUD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, JPY and GBP outperform.

  • Japan’s currency rose more than 1% to around the 143 level after falling to 144.96 against the dollar early in the Asian session after reports that the Bank of Japan conducted a rate check on forex with market participants, a move that’s seen as a precursor to intervening in the currency market. Benchmark 10- year bond yields rose to the upper end of the central bank’s designated range.
  • The euro briefly rose above parity against the dollar before paring gains. European bond yields were steady to a few bps higher
  • Swedish bonds underperformed European peers as markets were increasingly looking for a 100bps Riksbank rate hik next week after inflation rose to a three-decade high
  • The pound erased an early gain after UK headline inflation missed economist estimates, only to rebound. The UK yield curve steepened as short-dated bonds fell while longer maturities were little changed
  • UK inflation eased from its highest rate in four decades after petrol declined. The CPI rose 9.9% from a year ago last month, slower than the 10.1% pace in July. Economists expected a reading of 10%
  • The Australian dollar was steady amid losses in iron ore

“Many emerging markets are feeling the heat of the strong US dollar,” said Chi Lo, senior market strategist for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management, citing their debt burdens in greenbacks. “Only China can afford to defy this global rate-rise trend by keeping its easing policy stance.”

In rates, Treasuries fell across the curve, sending yields 2-3bps higher, and near the bottom of Tuesday’s range, a sharp bear-flattening move following hot August CPI and strong 30-year bond auction. Curve spreads are little changed with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads inverted.  US yields cheaper by 2bp-4bp across the curve with 10-year around 3.45%, underperforming bunds by ~1.5bp, gilts by ~2.5bp. The yield on short-end gilts eases about 3bps to 3.14%, while bunds 10-year yield climbs about 1bp to 1.73%.

In commodities, WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, adding 0.3% to near $87.54. Most base metals are in the red; LME nickel falls 1.7%, underperforming peers. LME lead outperforms, adding 0.6%. Spot gold is little changed at $1,704/oz.  The IEA cut its 2022 demand growth view by 110k BPD to 2.1mln BPD (prev. 2.21mln BPD); faltering Chinese economy, slowdown in OECD countries undercutting demand.

Bitcoin and Ethereum trade sideways just above 20k and 1.6k respectively, after crashing again on Tuesday.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK CPI reading for August, Euro Area industrial production for July and US PPI for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy. And in politics, European Commission President Von der Leyen will deliver her State of the Union address.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 3,955.50
  • MXAP down 1.9% to 152.39
  • MXAPJ down 2.2% to 500.13
  • Nikkei down 2.8% to 27,818.62
  • Topix down 2.0% to 1,947.46
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.5% to 18,847.10
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,237.54
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 60,447.02
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.6% to 6,828.62
  • Kospi down 1.6% to 2,411.42
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 420.19
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.72%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0001
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,704.99
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.33% to 109.46

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital is worried the Fed will choke off economic growth by raising interest rates too fast. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is among those saying the central bank needs to hike even faster to restore its credibility
  • The EU’s executive arm plans to recommend cutting funding for Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s administration on concerns about widespread graft in Hungary, according to senior EU officials
  • French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire raised this year’s economic-growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.5% as consumption and corporate investment hold up, and job creation remains dynamic
  • France’s power-grid operator expects to ask households, businesses and local governments to reduce energy consumption several times over the next six months, to avoid rotating power cuts as the country grapples with a regional energy crisis

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian stocks declined following the bloodbath on Wall St where the S&P 500 had its worst day since June 2020, the DJIA slumped by nearly 1,300 points, while the Nasdaq 100 led the declines with all constituents in the red after hot US inflation data spurred more hawkish Fed rate pricing. ASX 200 was pressured with losses in all sectors and underperformance in real estate after ASIC moved to stop investment in two major property funds. Nikkei 225 fell below 28k amid notable losses in the tech industry and with stronger than expected Machinery Orders doing little to inspire a turnaround. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were also negative amid headwinds from an approaching typhoon and with the US reportedly in early talks on sanctions against China to deter it from invading Taiwan.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9116 vs exp. 6.9003 (prev. 6.8928).
  • US congressional panel was told by experts that the US ban on sales by Nvidia to Chinese clients will slow Beijing’s efforts to build a facial recognition surveillance network and further restrictions on high-tech product sales should be imposed, according to SCMP.
  • Hong Kong is to tighten rules regarding issuing provisional vaccine passes to travellers, according to SCMP.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said FX intervention is among the options and FX moves are apparently rapid, while he added they are very concerned about sharp yen weakening and will take necessary steps if such moves persist.
  • BoJ reportedly conducted a rate check on FX in apparent preparation for currency intervention, according to Nikkei. JiJi suggested the rate check was conducted with USD/JPY at 144.90. Note, officials have since refrained from confirming the rate check.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said recent JPY moves have been quite sharp; reiterates will not rule out any options when asked about intervention, via Reuters.
  • Indian Trade Body executive said that the State Bank of India is ready for INR trade with Russia; Indian trade body executive expects exports from the country to pick up in October.
  • Indian trade body executive sees a singing of India-UK Free Trade Agreement by the end of October; India-Australia trade pact likely by November.

European bourses trade mostly lower but off worst levels, but the sentiment remains dampened. European sectors are mostly lower with no overarching theme. Stateside, US equity futures consolidated overnight after yesterday’s detrimental losses, with a relatively broad-based gains performance seen across the main futures contract in the early European hours

Top European News

  • Queen’s Coffin to Lie in State as Mourners Face 30-Hour Wait
  • EU Aims to Boost Ukraine’s Economy With Single Market Access
  • EU Starts Talks With Norway to Try to Cut the Price of Gas
  • Auto Trader Downgraded by Morgan Stanley; Schibsted Raised
  • Russia Earns Less Despite Higher Oil Flows in August, IEA Says

FX

  • The JPY is in focus and stands as the outperformer amid overnight reports of a rate check conducted by the BoJ, whilst verbal intervention continued from Japanese officials.
  • DXY is subsequently pressured but holds onto a 109.00 handle whilst EUR/USD trades on either side of parity
  • The Pound bounced firmly in spite of softer than expected UK inflation data, albeit after an initial decline and following very heavy losses on Tuesday.

Fixed Income

  • Bunds are regaining a firmer grasp of the 143.00 handle between 143.76-142.83 parameters following a strong 2044 auction.
  • Gilts and the 10 year T-note have also bounced from deeper intraday lows in consolidative trade.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are relatively contained after the front month futures settled lower yesterday.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +6.0mln (exp. +0.8mln), Cushing +0.1mln, Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -0.9mln), Distillates +1.8mln (exp. +0.6mln).
  • IEA OMR: Cut its 2022 demand growth view by 110k BPD to 2.1mln BPD (prev. 2.21mln BPD); faltering Chinese economy, slowdown in OECD countries undercutting demand
  • Spot gold holds onto the USD 1,700/oz mark after dipping to a USD 1,696.10/oz low yesterday, with upside levels including the10, 21, and 50 DMAs
  • Base metals are relatively flat awaiting the next catalyst.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Sept. MBA Mortgage Applications -1.2%, prior -0.8%
  • 08:30: Aug. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.5%; YoY, est. 8.8%, prior 9.8%
  • 08:30: Aug. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 7.0%, prior 7.6%
  • 08:30: Aug. PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 5.5%, prior 5.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a recent run of optimism that the US economy might achieve a soft landing, and that upsides on inflation were now behind us, yesterday saw that narrative take a significant blow on the back of another stronger-than-expected CPI release. Both the monthly headline and core CPI prints surprised on the upside, which in turn led investors to ratchet up the amount of rate hikes they’re pricing in for the coming months. Indeed, futures are not only pricing in another 75bps hike from the Fed next week, but they are now pricing in a meaningful probability of a 100bp hike, while also viewing the prospect of a fourth consecutive 75bps move in November as an increasingly likely outcome.

The material tightening of policy expectations sucked the life out of equities, making it one of the worst single-day performances since the onset of the pandemic with the S&P 500 (-4.32%) and the NASDAQ (-5.16%) each having their worst day since June 2020.

In terms of the details of that CPI print, the monthly headline number was actually pretty subdued again at +0.1%. However, that was two-tenths above the -0.1% reading that had been anticipated by the consensus, and meant that the year-on-year measure only drifted down to +8.3% (vs. +8.1% expected). Furthermore, the bulk of that downward pressure came from energy once again (-5.0% on the month), and if you look at the core CPI measure that excludes the volatile food and energy components, that was still rising at +0.6% on the month (vs. +0.3% expected), which is well above rates consistent with the Fed’s target. In fact on a year-on-year basis, core CPI rose to its fastest pace since March at +6.3% (vs. +6.1% expected).

Looking at some alternative measures, the details of the report are even less flattering than the headline +0.1% number. For instance, the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean (which excludes the biggest price outliers in the consumer basket) saw a +0.6% gain on the month, which shows that inflation is still broad-based, and that the headline number is being dragged down by outliers. On top of that, the “stickier” components of the consumer price basket were the ones seeing the more rapid increases, with the Atlanta Fed’s Sticky CPI series gaining +0.6% on the month, which contrasts with the -0.9% decline in the Flexible CPI series. So ultimately there was a sense following the report that many market participants may have got ahead of themselves after the previous month’s downside inflation surprise, which after all was the biggest downside surprise relative to consensus in over five years. As I outlined in my CoTD yesterday (link here) that came out before the data, it’s easy to conclude that inflation has peaked due to a collapse in many supply side factors of late but the problem is that we think most of the inflation is now demand led and until the lagged effect of Fed hikes bites inflation will be sticky. The good news about demand side inflation is that the Fed have a fair amount of power over it. The bad news is that it might require notably higher interest rates still. If you’re not on the Chart of the Day (CoTD) and want to be, please email jim-reid.thematicresearch@db.com.

Given the latest inflation data, investors moved to price in a much more aggressive pace of rate hikes from the Fed over the coming months, with a number of new milestones reached. First, investors are now fully pricing in a 75bps move at next week’s meeting, with a non-negligible chance (c.34%) of 100bps as well. Second, a 75bps hike is now seen as more likely than not for the November meeting too. And third, the implied rate by the December meeting now exceeds 4% for the first time, which is a far cry from the 0.82% rate expected when 2022 began. Markets are also expecting a more hawkish Fed into 2023 as well, with the December 2023 rate moving up +18.7bps to 3.82%.

Those expectations of a more hawkish Fed led to a major selloff for Treasuries, with the 2yr yield soaring +18.5bps to a post-2007 high of 3.76%, whilst the 10yr yield rose +5.0bps to 3.41%. That was driven by higher real yields, and at one point the 10yr real yield even exceeded 1% in trading, before falling back to close at 0.96%. The entire yield curve flattened given the higher probability of a harder landing, with 2s10s ending the day at -34.8bps and 5s30s falling -15.5bps to finish inverted (-10.3bps) for the first time since the start of the month. In Asia, US 10yr USTs are another +1.2bps higher with 2yrs +0.5bps. It was a similar story on the other side of the Atlantic too, as the CPI report led investors to expect more rate hikes from the ECB as well, with 129bps of further hikes priced in for the remaining two meetings this year up from 118bps at the start of play. In turn, yields on 10yr bunds (+7.5bps), OATs (+6.4bps) and BTPs (+3.3bps) all moved higher.

As previewed at the top, the sharp tightening in rates led to the worst day in a while for US equities.The S&P 500 experienced a rout that saw it shed -4.33% on the day, its worst day since June 2020, where just 5 companies in the entire index moved higher on the day. Tech stocks were particularly impacted, with the NASDAQ down -5.16%, whilst the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks fell by a massive -6.56% (worse day since September 2020) given its particular sensitivity to raising discount rates. Bear in mind that up until the CPI release, futures had actually been pointing to gains in the US, following which there was a sharp turnaround in the other direction. That was evident in Europe too, where the STOXX 600 swung from an intraday high of +0.64% just before the release before closing -1.55% lower.

In terms of yesterday’s other news, the UK unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in the three months to July (vs. 3.8% expected), marking its lowest rate since 1974. The number of payrolled employees in August was also up by +71k (vs. 60k expected), and growth in average total pay was up +5.5% in the three months to July (vs. 5.4% expected).So cumulatively the data is pointing towards further hikes from the BoE, and the hike priced in for next week’s meeting went up by +2.6bps yesterday to 68.7bps. Gilts underperformed their counterparts elsewhere in Europe, and the 10yr yield rose +9.0bps to a fresh high for the decade at 3.17%.

Elsewhere, Brent crude oil prices rebounded more than +2.5% intraday (to close down -0.88%) following reports that the United States was considering purchasing crude at $80/bbl to rebuild the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, that price level had been floated a few months back, and any repurchases will likely take place over the course of a few years, and wouldn’t begin in the near-term. So those headlines probably are not as incrementally important as yesterday’s intraday price action may suggest.

Elsewhere, the ever-looming geopolitical tail risks provided another nugget yesterday, with Reuters reporting the US was in early discussions of considering sanctions against China to deter an invasion of Taiwan, with Taiwan lobbying EU to take similar steps. Early days in this story, but unquestionably a potential flashpoint to keep an eye on. Regular readers will know we think a bi-polar world with sanctions and trade barriers between the two blocks is a reasonable medium-term scenario.

The strong inflation print has also shaken stocks across Asia with the Hang Seng (-2.58%) leading losses followed by the Nikkei (-2.18%), Kospi (-1.68%), the CSI (-1.24%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.02%).

S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures are trading +0.20% and +0.13% higher respectively. Stoxx futures are down c.-0.75% as the main index closed before the last leg of the US sell-off.

Elsewhere, China extended its currency defense as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the daily reference rate for the yuan at the strongest bias on record at 6.9116 per US dollar, 598 pips stronger than the Bloomberg average estimate. Separately, yields on 10-yr Japanese government bonds (JGB) advanced to 0.25% for the first time since June, touching the upper end of the BOJ’s target range. This story has gone quiet in recent months so it’ll be interesting if the risk of the BoJ YCC policy going starts to bubble again. Indeed, the Japanese yen is hovering close to its 24-year low at 144.43 against the US dollar after the dollar jumped +1.4% on the surprisingly strong US inflation report.

There wasn’t much in the way of other data yesterday, but the German ZEW survey for September came in beneath expectations, with the current situation component falling to -60.5 (vs. -52.1 expected), and the expectations component down to -61.9 (vs. -59.5 expected). That’s the lowest reading for the expectations component since October 2008 at the depths of the financial crisis.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK CPI reading for August, Euro Area industrial production for July and US PPI for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy. And in politics, European Commission President Von der Leyen will deliver her State of the Union address.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

European bourses trade off lows, JPY in focus, debt in consolidative trade – Newsquawk US Market Open

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WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 06:40 AM

  • European bourses trade mostly lower but off worst levels, but the sentiment remains dampened; US futures are modestly firmer
  • JPY is in focus and stands as the outperformer amid overnight reports of a rate check conducted by the BoJ; DXY is pressured 
  • Gilts and the 10 year T-note have also bounced from deeper intraday lows in consolidative trade, Germany saw a strong 2044 auction
  • WTI and Brent are relatively contained, spot gold holds onto 1,700/oz, base metals are flat
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, New Zealand GDP, ECB’s Lane and Villeroy

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk

Try a 14-day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

14th September 2022

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US PPI, New Zealand GDP, ECB’s Lane and Villeroy
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • The European Union is expected to reconsider its sanctions policy in the fall due to cold weather in Western Europe, Hungarian Foreign Ministry State Secretary Menczer said, according to UrduPoint News/Sputnik.
  • EU Commission President Von Der Leyen said the energy market is being manipulated by Russia and is not functioning any more.

CHINA-TAIWAN

  • Taiwan was reported to host dozens of lawmakers in Washington to gather support for measures to deter China and visiting lawmakers are set to pledge support in their home countries for sanctions as a deterrent against China’s hostility, according to Reuters.

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN

  • Armenia’s Defence ministry said Azerbaijan resumed shelling Armenian territory on Wednesday, according to Tass.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses trade mostly lower but off worst levels, but the sentiment remains dampened.
  • European sectors are mostly lower with no overarching theme.
  • Stateside, US equity futures consolidated overnight after yesterday’s detrimental losses, with a relatively broad-based gains performance seen across the main futures contract in the early European hours
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • The JPY is in focus and stands as the outperformer amid overnight reports of a rate check conducted by the BoJ, whilst verbal intervention continued from Japanese officials.
  • DXY is subsequently pressured but holds onto a 109.00 handle whilst EUR/USD trades on either side of parity
  • The Pound bounced firmly in spite of softer than expected UK inflation data, albeit after an initial decline and following very heavy losses on Tuesday.
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Bunds are regaining a firmer grasp of the 143.00 handle between 143.76-142.83 parameters following a strong 2044 auction.
  • Gilts and the 10 year T-note have also bounced from deeper intraday lows in consolidative trade.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent are relatively contained after the front month futures settled lower yesterday.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +6.0mln (exp. +0.8mln), Cushing +0.1mln, Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -0.9mln), Distillates +1.8mln (exp. +0.6mln).
  • IEA OMR: Cut its 2022 demand growth view by 110k BPD to 2.1mln BPD (prev. 2.21mln BPD); faltering Chinese economy, slowdown in OECD countries undercutting demand
  • Spot gold holds onto the USD 1,700/oz mark after dipping to a USD 1,696.10/oz low yesterday, with upside levels including the10, 21, and 50 DMAs
  • Base metals are relatively flat awaiting the next catalyst.
  • Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin and Ethereum trade sideways just above 20k and 1.6k respectively.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • UK CPI YY (Aug) 9.9% vs. Exp. 10.2% (Prev. 10.1%)
  • UK CPI MM (Aug) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
  • UK Core CPI YY (Aug) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.2%)
  • UK Core CPI MM (Aug) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.3%)
  • EU Industrial Production MM (Jul) -2.3% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 0.7%, Rev. 1.1%)
  • EU Industrial Production YY (Jul) -2.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 2.4%, Rev. 2.2%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Microsoft (MSFT) sees FY23 Q1 more personal computing segment rev. USD 13.1bln-13.5bln, Q1 intelligent cloud rev. of USD 20.2bln-20.5bln Y/Y and said Q1 devices revenue should be in the low single digits.
  • Apple (AAPL) is to use TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) next 3 nm chip tech in iPhones and Macs next year, according to Nikkei.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks declined following the bloodbath on Wall St where the S&P 500 had its worst day since June 2020, the DJIA slumped by nearly 1,300 points, while the Nasdaq 100 led the declines with all constituents in the red after hot US inflation data spurred more hawkish Fed rate pricing.
  • ASX 200 was pressured with losses in all sectors and underperformance in real estate after ASIC moved to stop investment in two major property funds.
  • Nikkei 225 fell below 28k amid notable losses in the tech industry and with stronger than expected Machinery Orders doing little to inspire a turnaround.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were also negative amid headwinds from an approaching typhoon and with the US reportedly in early talks on sanctions against China to deter it from invading Taiwan.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9116 vs exp. 6.9003 (prev. 6.8928).
  • US congressional panel was told by experts that the US ban on sales by Nvidia to Chinese clients will slow Beijing’s efforts to build a facial recognition surveillance network and further restrictions on high-tech product sales should be imposed, according to SCMP.
  • Hong Kong is to tighten rules regarding issuing provisional vaccine passes to travellers, according to SCMP.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said FX intervention is among the options and FX moves are apparently rapid, while he added they are very concerned about sharp yen weakening and will take necessary steps if such moves persist.
  • BoJ reportedly conducted a rate check on FX in apparent preparation for currency intervention, according to Nikkei. JiJi suggested the rate check was conducted with USD/JPY at 144.90. Note, officials have since refrained from confirming the rate check.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said recent JPY moves have been quite sharp; reiterates will not rule out any options when asked about intervention, via Reuters.
  • Indian Trade Body executive said that the State Bank of India is ready for INR trade with Russia; Indian trade body executive expects exports from the country to pick up in October.
  • Indian trade body executive sees a singing of India-UK Free Trade Agreement by the end of October; India-Australia trade pact likely by November.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Jul) 5.3% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. 0.9%)
  • Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Jul) 12.8% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.5%)
  • New Zealand Current Account QQ (NZD)(Q2) -5.2B vs. Exp. -4.7B (Prev. -6.1B, Rev. -6.5B)
  • New Zealand Current Account YY (Q2) -27.8B vs. Exp. -26.6B (Prev. -23.3B)
  • New Zealand Current Account/GDP (Q2) -7.7% vs. Exp. -7.4% (Prev. -6.5%)

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.25 PTS OR .80%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 479.76 PTS OR 2.48%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 796.01 OR 2.78%.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 2.51%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.9609//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.9752//    /Oil UP TO 87,19  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.72    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

Bank of Japan warns of an imminent FX intervention as the USA/Yen approached 145.  (now at 142.84)

BOJ Warns Of Imminent FX Intervention: Here’s How Far USDJPY Can Fall… Before Surging Even More

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 11:25 AM

One of the biggest casualties of yesterday’s CPI shock was the Japanese yen which, after gradually rebounding after last week’s collapse which sent the currency to 24 year lows, plunged as the USDJPY spiked by nearly 300 pips in response to the soaring dollar and expectations of a 100bps rate hike by the Fed.

However, just as the yen appeared set to take out the critical 145 level, the USDJPY dropped shortly after midnight ET, when Japan’s Nikkei reported that the BOJ (which intervenes in the FX market on behalf of the MoF) conducted a FX “rate check” on Wednesday, asking market participants about rates at which it could intervene.

Bloomberg confirmed reporting that the BOJ conducted a rate check in the FX market after top currency official Masato Kanda delivered a verbal warning Wednesday morning: “BOJ called asking for an indicative price at which it could intervene” the Bloomberg source said. The rate check, which is sometimes a precursor for actual intervention, followed Kanda’s statement at 8:30am local time.

Unlike prior heavy if ineffective verbal intervention by the central bank, where various official had warned that they are keeping a close eye on the yen however failing to slow the yen’s collapse, the latest media leak was seen as a move meant to prepare for imminent currency intervention by inquiring about trends in the foreign exchange market.

The verbal intervention worked, and USDJPY was last seen trading around 142.60, a steep from just shy of 145, where it traded earlier this morning.

While rate checks can be a precursor to physical intervention, it’s unlikely such a move would lead to an imminent action as they are likely an extension of verbal intervention, said Akira Moroga, manager of currency products at Aozora Bank in Tokyo. Still the rate check does underscore the authorities’ resolve against the weak yen.

Additionally, Japan’s Jiji reported that the BOJ asked the market situation at 144.90, which implies that BOJ/MOF has 145 in mind as a red line. Credit Agricole FX strategist David Forrester, confirmed as much, writing that a break of 145 by USDJPY would “probably lead to intervention by the Japanese authorities.”

That said, as Goldman notes, whether they actually do an intervention there or not is a separate issue, as they:

  1. need to get a consent from the US,
  2. FX intervention traditionally has been swallowed by the market in a matter of seconds ending up with no impact, especially when fx move is borne out of US fundamentals.

Japan does have large FX reserve (FX currency reserve is $1,172Bn in Aug), but if one intervention doesn’t work, the moment they stop JPY would shoot to the moon. Furthermore as shown in the chart below, BoJ FX interventions have not only failed to halt a sliding yen but have in fact preceded even bigger drops.

Looking further back in time, to the mid-1990s when the BOJ was more aggressively involved in FX intervention (and before the BOJ’s QE), shows a similar pattern: interventions were successful only in the very beginning, and then failed to in driving sustained declines in the USDJPY.

Or, as Goldman puts it, “once they start, it’s difficult to stop.”  Of course, nobody wants to be stopped out during the first big move which is why the BOJ will wait until the very last minute before it fires it first and potentially last FX intervention bullet.

Meanwhile, a BOJ adjustment on the YCC would have a impact on the JPY. With the Fed Funds rate heading towards 4%, a 0.1% adjustment on YCC wouldn’t make any impact, and would be again swallowed by the next strong US economic data.

Furthermore, unlike FX intervention, BOJ’s YCC adjustment can only be done once probably. The Japanese domestic economic data still doesn’t warrant a change in YCC.

In any case, the strong warning signal sent by the MOF/BOJ today – whether the rate check at 144.90 was actually done or not – was itself a strong enough message to cool down the market by 1 yen. But put it in another way, US CPI strong print moves the yen by 2 yen, but intervention warning has only half the impact. As such today was a good experiment for the MOF & BOJ (to see just how powerless they are to contain the drop in the yen).

Assuming the BOJ does in fact proceed with an intervention, how far could the USDJPY drop? According to Bloomberg’s FX strategist Vassilis Karamanis, following news of the “rate check”, risk reversals rallied in favor of yen topside this morning across the curve and the Japanese currency is up by 0.6% in the spot market. He notes that whether unilateral intervention can be successful over the medium-term is up for discussion, but “should we see the BOJ buying the yen in size, the dollar could move toward the 137 handle after a round or two of interventions are through. That’s where the 55-DMA and a Double-Top projection coincide. Note that nine-day RSI is sending early bearish signals, and momentum trading could take over should soon. To the topside, 145 remains the key level.”

Seiichi Nozaki, general manager at securities investment department at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance in Tokyo, said that while Japanese authorities may strengthen the tone of the language if the yen falls beyond 145, any upward yen move would soon be taken over by market players looking to take fresh positions.

“I would put the probability of actual intervention at around 30%,” said Adam Cole, chief currency strategist at RBC Europe in London. “Today’s events may put a temporary cap at 145, but don’t expect that to hold for long” with pair seen rallying to 150.

Looking ahead, if the surge in the yen leads to a burst in inflation, it is likely that the Kishida administration will address the high inflation via Fiscal measures rather (subsidies for gasoline, wheat, and other items, in particular). BOJ head Kuroda, who has been a proponent of a weak yen, has explicitly dismissed rate hikes as an option to counter the weak yen….we would have expected Governor Kuroda to make more cautious comments if he was significantly concerned.

3c CHINA

CHINA/

China’s domestic market is still very weak.  Their exports are very strong but imports basically non existent. The USA is the last resort buying Chinese goods

(Mish Shedlock//Mishtalk)

China Is Not Rebalancing, Its Flawed Dependence On Huge Exports Continues

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 08:10 PM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

China talks a game of trade reform but actions speak louder than words…

  1. China’s export growth may have slowed compared to recent months, but it is nonetheless up 7.1% year on year in August. I don’t know what the global figures are, but I suspect that China continues to grow its share of total exports.
  2. This should seem pretty remarkable given the problems the Chinese economy faced, but it isn’t. The government continues to release measure after measure aimed – almost desperately – at keeping total production rising. And production has risen, even if only slowly.
  3. The real problem, which Beijing still seems unable to address, continues to be very weak domestic demand. Imports were barely up year on year, rising nominally by 0.3% and almost certainly falling in real terms. This is the third month of surging exports and flat imports.
  4. This shows just how terribly weak domestic demand continues to be. Between rising uncertainty, high unemployment and downward pressure on wages, Chinese households are completely unable to increase their consumption and, with it, their imports.
  5. The trade surplus for August was $79.4 billion, the sixth highest monthly trade surplus on record. This may no longer seem a big number, but it is 35% higher than the record-breaking August surpluses of 2020 and 2021, and it is 129% higher than in 2019.
  6. Year to date China’s trade surplus is $571 billion, or 54% higher than it was last year at this time. This is equal to roughly 4.8% of China’s GDP.

Nixon Shock, the Reserve Currency Curse, and a Pending Currency Crisis

It’s important to understand that the US dollar as a global reserve currency and the end of Bretton Woods II is what makes this possible.

The US is the world’s consumer of last resort. Things have become increasingly unbalanced ever since Nixon closed the gold convertibility window. 

Now, nations can inflate at will and they do. The result is soaring deficits and massive trade imbalances that were self-correcting under a gold standard. 

For discussion, please see Nixon Shock, the Reserve Currency Curse, and a Pending Currency Crisis

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

GERMANY/UNIPER

Now Germany is weighing complete nationalization after July’s 30% ownership rescue pkg.

(zerohedge0

Germany Weighs Nationalizing Uniper To Avert ‘Lehman-Like Contagion’ As Energy Crisis Worsens

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 09:45 AM

Russia has curbed natural gas supplies to Europe amid soaring tensions over its invasion of Ukraine, with the effect of sparking an unprecedented energy crisis across Europe, impacting Germany the most. 

The German government’s primary concern is avoiding a ‘Lehman-style’ collapse of its energy industry. 

Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that German officials are mulling over increasing their stake in troubled NatGas importer Uniper SE above 50% — there’s also talk about nationalization. 

Uniper needs additional support from the German government after tapping into rescue packages worth as much as 20 billion euros ($20 billion), according to one source. Soaring NatGas prices and Russian energy giant Gazprom’s supply cuts via the Nord Stream 1 to Europe have led Uniper to millions of euros per day in losses, which Berlin’s first rescue package for a 30% stake in the utility was in July.  

Both Uniper and the German economy ministry declined to comment on the Bloomberg report. 

Another person who asked not to be identified because rescue talks are behind closed doors said Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration is preparing to inject billions of euros into the faltering utility that will raise the government’s stake over the 50% threshold. 

“Nationalisation is the only solution left, Uniper’s capital resources are totally under water. Mathematically speaking, there is nothing else that could be done,” a source close to the matter told Reuters.

Shares in Uniper were down as much as 12% as of 0630ET following the report. 

Uniper’s Finnish parent company Fortum Oyj released a statement that said no decisions have been made “beyond what was agreed in the stabilization package in July” but added that “alternative solutions” are being discussed. 

“The deteriorating operating environment and Uniper’s financial situation have to be taken into account while Fortum, the German government and Uniper continue their discussions on a long-term solution,” Fortum said, adding that it would “update the market as and if necessary.”

Ahead of the cold season, which is just around the corner, Germany appears to be shoring up its energy companies, with the possibility of even nationalizing some to avoid a systemic crisis.

END

GERMANY/CHINA

Germany is now working on a new trade policy reducing its dependence on Chinese raw materials

(zerohedge)

“No More Naivety”: Germany Working On New Trade Policy Reducing Dependence On Chinese Raw Materials

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 11:10 PM

It appears that beggars can be choosers.

The beggar in this case is Germany – whose economic prosperity over the past two decades has been largely a function of its close mercantilist relationship with China (and, of course, the PIIGS-crippling euro which allowed Germany to benefit from a cheap, distributed and very much artificial currency instead of the always overvalued DEM) – which according to Reuters has chosen it no longer needs said prosperity, and on Tuesday Germany’s economy minister, Robert Habeck, said the government was working on a new trade policy with China to reduce dependence on Chinese raw materials, batteries and semiconductors, promising “no more naivety” in trade dealings with Beijing.

Sources told Reuters last week the economy ministry was considering a raft of new measures to make business with China less attractive. And today was the first time the minister confirmed the tougher line was being translated into policy measures

Habeck told Reuters that China was a welcome trading partner, but Germany could not allow Beijing’s protectionism to distort competition and would not hold back criticism of human rights violations under threat of losing business.

“We cannot allow ourselves to be blackmailed,” he said in an interview, clearly forgetting that since Germany already lost Russian commodities, it clearly can be blackmailed by China, which together with its sphere of influence – i.e., LatAm and Africa – which remains its last chance at having access to any commodities.

Habeck did not outline new measures in full – for the simple reason that they don’t exist nor will they ever be implemented unless Germany wants an overnight depression – but said they would include closer examination of Chinese investments in Europe, such as infrastructure.

While there are many things about Germany’s tantrum that are delightfully idiotic, what is most laughable is that China has been Germany’s biggest trade partner for the past six years, with volumes reaching over 245 billion euros ($246 billion) in 2021. And guess what happens when you tell your biggest trade partner you will no longer tolerate anything they want you to tolerate?

But the centre-left government – the same geniuses who laughed at Trump, took their energy policies from a Scandinavian teenager, left Germany with almost no nuclear power plants and hostage to Putin’s geopolitical ambitions – is taking a tougher line towards Beijing than its centre-right predecessor, clearly pressured by woke German twitterers and “worried about Germany’s dependence on Asia’s economic superpower” (odd they were not worried about Germany’s dependent on Russia’s energy superpower).

Last Thursday, Reuters reported the economy ministry was considering measures including reducing or even scrapping investment and export guarantees for China and no longer promoting trade fairs. Habeck said Germany must open up to new trading partners and regions as many sectors were heavily dependent on selling to China.

Of course, if Germany is dumb enough to do another huge mistake and extends its blockade of Russia to China, the results will be beyond catastrophic.

“If it (the Chinese market) were to close, which is not likely at the moment … we would have extreme sales problems,” Habeck said, adding the economy ministry was contributing to the new German-China policy, much of which is already in place. “And from this you will see that there is no more naivety,” he added.

Berlin also wants to examine Chinese investments in Europe more critically, he said, adding Europe should not support China’s Silk Road Initiative, which aims to buy up strategic infrastructure in Europe and influence trade policy.

As an example, Habeck signalled he was opposed to plans by China’s Cosco to buy a stake in a container operator at Germany’s Hafen Hamburg port, signalling concerns about Chinese takeover deals are spreading out from the technology arena into other industry sectors, such as logistics.

“I’m leaning towards the fact that we don’t allow that,” he said.

China has not joined the West in imposing sweeping sanctions on Moscow following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but has also not endorsed Moscow’s actions as Beijing needs to maintain trade relations with Europe. Of course, the more Europe in general, and Germany in particular, pushes against its biggest trading partner, the faster it will ensure that the strategic union between Russia and China is unbreakable, and leave the west with soaring inflation in everything from commodities to raw materials and all those formerly cheap things people could buy at Walmart.

END

GREECE/TURKEY/USA

Much to the anger of Turkey, Greece shows off newly arrived F 16’s

(zerohedge0

Greece Shows Off Newly Arrived Modernized F-16s From US, Angering Turkey

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Greece has received delivery the first pair of upgraded F-16 military jets from the United States as part of a $1.5 billion program to modernize its fighter fleet, with four more expected by year’s end. In total the deal is for 83 F-16s to be modernized with advanced radar, weapons and electronics systems by 2027.

The US-approved Lockheed Martin deal with Athens has angered Turkey, while head of Greece’s military Gen. Constantinos Floros hailed success in this “issue of the highest national importance.” At a moment tensions are boiling with Turkey over Anakara’s claims that Greek islands are being illegally ‘militarized’ in contravention of historic treaties, the top Greek general warned that “Any potential aggressor will have to think twice or thrice before trying their luck.”

Last May, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited Washington and spoke to Congress. He appeared to actively lobby US lawmakers against Turkey’s request for its own F-16 modernization kits. This infuriated President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who subsequently said Mitsotakis “no longer exists for him” – given that Congress subsequently blocked Turkish F-16 modernization.

Without doubt, Tuesday’s handover ceremony of the newly outfitted Greek F-16s at the Tanagra air base northwest of Athens is a hugely symbolic poke in the eye to Ankara.

The past days have seen tensions rise after Erdogan over a week ago issued a thinly veiled threat of military action. PM Kyriakos was asked over the weekend about the possibility of direct clashes over the eastern Mediterranean, to which he responded

Asked Sunday by The Associated Press whether the recent escalation in rhetoric from Turkey could be the prelude to an armed conflict, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis replied negatively.

“I don’t believe this will ever happen,” he said. “And if, God forbid, it happened, Turkey would receive an absolutely devastating response.”

Greece has of late dramatically increased defense spending, given especially it has also been in a years-long standoff with Turkey over maritime rights. Turkey has consistently claimed oil and gas exploration and drilling rights surrounding Cyprus and in waters which fall under Greece’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). 

As the AP notes, “Following years of forced savings during the 2010-2018 financial crisis, Greece has embarked on a multibillion-dollar spending spree to boost its armed forces. It has bought or ordered French Rafale fighter jets and FDI frigates, and plans to purchase F-35 fighters from the U.S.”

At the same time, Turkey had been expelled from the F-35 program following the Pastor Brunson detention affair, and as relations with Washington progressively worsened, especially given the Russian S-400 transfer from Russia, which the US had warned against.

END

EUROPE/NATURAL GAS

Europe’s natural gas shortage could trigger a food shortage

(Yaremba/OilPrice.com)

Europe’s Natural Gas Shortage Could Trigger A Food Crisis

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Hale Yaremba via OilPrice.com,

  • Energy crises impact nearly every aspect of our lives, and that is particularly true of food markets, with food production next year expected to be severely threatened.
  • About 70 percent of the cost of fertilizer production is solely the price of natural gas, and as the price of energy soars, the cost of making and moving food is increasing alongside it.
  • At the same time, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and threats from Putin that Russia may alter grain export routes have only added to uncertainty in food markets.

The problem with an energy crisis is that it’s actually an everything crisis. In a world where virtually every industry relies on energy in some form, runaway inflation is an inevitability. This phenomenon is not news – you’ve been experiencing it for the better part of two years now. But while global governments are using every tool in their kits to curb the rising inflation rates, there’s far less they can do about the coming food shortage. 

For months, the agricultural industry has been warning the rest of the world that next year’s food production is severely threatened, as the fertilizer industry is in shambles. Industrial NPK fertilizers (so named for their makeup of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium oxide), are heavily reliant on natural gas supplies. About 70 percent of the cost of fertilizer production is solely the price of natural gas, which is used in liberal amounts to make the ammonia phosphate slurries that turn into fertilizer. Indeed, according to CRU Group, European fertilizer producers in the region are currently losing approximately $2,000 for every ton of ammonia produced. So as Russia has stemmed and then indefinitely stopped the flow of natural gas into Europe, sending gas prices through the roof, the continent’s fertilizer sector has halted as much as 70 percent of its production capacity

This is an enormously scary figure. Commercial fertilizer plays an essential role in 40 to 60 percent of the world’s food production. Unless you’re growing your own food or buying from a patchouli-scented co-op, it’s likely that most of your food staples are entirely reliant on NPK. Food security experts have been warning of this kind of crisis for years, and of this specific crisis since the beginning of this year. After so many decades of the liberal use of chemical fertilizers, global agricultural soils are devastatingly depleted of nutrients. Without increased use of fertilizer every year, these degraded lands could produce just a fraction of their current capacity, and with lower nutrient content.

And this is all on top of the other food crisis unfolding. Together, Russia and Ukraine produce so much grain for the global market that they are often referred to as the world’s bread basket. Conflict in the region has also imperiled the delivery of the region’s grain to the market, creating a food squeeze in import-reliant sub-Saharan Africa earlier this summer. A recent grain trade agreement between the United Nations, Moscow, and Kyiv – which attempted to mitigate this problem while also providing income to occupied Ukraine – has enraged Russian President Vladimir Putin. While he has agreed to let the “scam” deal go forward – for now – the back-and-forth has showcased the extreme volatility of Russian-involved grain and fertilizer supply chains. 

Back in July (when gas prices were much lower and the food security situation wasn’t nearly as dire as it is now) the International Fertilizer Association estimated that if Russia’s war in Ukraine is prolonged, and high gas prices continue to drive down the use of fertilizers, nearly 2 percent of global corn, wheat, rice, and soybean production could be lost. “Even small declines in the production of grain can result in significant price increases,” Newsweek reports. As always, the poorest countries will pay the biggest price; this summer’s grain squeeze in Africa will pale in comparison to the food crises likely to hit African nations, Mexico, and other developing countries with large input-reliant agricultural sectors. 

So why doesn’t the world simply direct more dollars and gas toward fertilizer, considering how much is at stake? “Countries can’t mandate fertilizer production because they are so worried about having enough natural gas to heat people’s homes,” John Harpole, a natural gas broker for the fertilizer sector told Newsweek. “They are having to choose between future food production and heat and they are going to choose heat.”

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

RUSSIA/

what is going on here?

(zerohedge)

Another Russian Energy Exec Found Dead, ‘Fell Overboard’ Boat At Full Speed

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 09:10 PM

Another one bites the dust…

Less than two weeks since Ravil Maganov, the vice president and chair of the board of directors of Russian oil giant Lukoil, died after falling out of a sixth floor hospital window in Moscow, another Russian energy executive has been found dead in mysterious circumstances.

39-year-old Ivan Pechorin, managing director of Putin’s Far East and Arctic Development Corporation, fell off the side of a boat while sailing in the waters close to Russky Island near Cape Ignatiev, according to Russian daily Komsomolskaya Pravda.

For two days, rescuers searched for a man at sea near the coastline – unfortunately, he was found dead.

“On September 12, 2022, it became known about the tragic death of our colleague, Managing Director for the Aviation Industry of the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation Ivan Pechorin. Ivan’s death is an irreparable loss for friends and colleagues, a great loss for the corporation,” representatives of the Development Corporation said.

According to The Mirror’s Russia correspondent, he was personally selected by Putin for his role, and was described by Newsweek as Putin’s “key man” in the region. 

Interestingly, Pechorin’s death comes just months after the corporation’s former CEO Igor Nosov, 43, also died suddenly in February, reportedly from a stroke.

Pechorin’s death is the latest in a string of unexplained or untimely deaths of Russian magnates connected to the energy industry in the last months.

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Kremlin reacts to new proposals for security guarantees for Ukraine.  

(zerohedge)

“Prologue To Third World War”: Kremlin Reacts To Security Guarantees For Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 08:10 AM

Ukraine wants a ‘NATO-esque’ bloc which can be called upon to immediately defend borders with Russia, which was proposed by a working group established by President Volodymyr Zelensky. Crucially it would include the United States and other NATO allies providing Ukraine with “security guarantees”.  Kiev officials stressed in unveiling the plan Tuesday that it’s not meant as a replacement for NATO, but as a legally binding alliance to be in place while Ukraine eventually pursues full NATO membership, as Newsweek describes of the proposal

The Kyiv Security Compact (KSC)—proposed by Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelensky’s office, and former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen—would also establish a “multi-decade” plan of investment, military training, and intelligence sharing to bolster Ukraine’s defensive capabilities as the country pursues full NATO membership.

The Kremlin’s reaction has been swift and fierce, with Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev warning that it is “really a prologue to the Third World War” if it gets enacted. He described that nuclear holocaust would be the end result.

According to a translation of Medvedev’s reaction in state media, which had been posted in a statement to Telegram, he blamed “dull idiots” from “stupid think tanks” for concocting such a “hysterical appeal”. Medvedev wrote:

“And then the Western nations will not be able to sit in their clean homes, laughing at how they carefully weaken Russia by proxy. Everything will be on fire around them. Their people will harvest their grief in full. The land will be on fire and the concrete will melt.

“Yet still the narrow-minded politicians and their stupid think tanks, thoughtfully twirling a glass of wine in their hands, talk about how they can deal with us without entering into a direct war. Dull idiots with a classical education.”

He said that already the conflict in Ukraine is sliding into unknown, unpredictable territory of escalation due to the West’s “unrestrained pumping of the Kiev regime with the most dangerous types of weapons.” 

He added to the statements as follows according to a translation

The Kyiv camarilla gave birth to a project of “security guarantees”, which are a prologue to the third world war. Of course, no one will give any “guarantees” to the Ukrainian Nazis. After all, this is almost the same as applying Article 5 of the North Atlantic Pact (Washington Treaty) to Ukraine. For NATO – the same shit, only a side view. Therefore, it’s scary.

Given the grinding conflict which is still focused in the east and south of the country, and with Moscow having vowed to “liberate” the Donbass, the security guarantees being proposed are unlikely to get off the ground anytime soon, given also it calls for a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders and a return of all homes and property confiscated by the invading Russian forces. 

Many pundits in the West are meanwhile expressing concern that amid a largely successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northeast Russia could grow more unpredictable and desperate. There’s ongoing speculation that President Putin could declare a formal declaration of war, something which the Kremlin on Tuesday denied there is even discussion of at this point.

END

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

Armenia Warns Allies Clashes Spiraling Toward War: Azerbaijan Has ‘Taken Territory’

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 04:40 PM

International efforts at getting Armenia and Azerbaijan to establish a ceasefire were short-lived as border clashes have continued Wednesay, after the worst violence between the rival countries since 2020 broke out shortly after midnight Tuesday, leaving over 100 Armenian soldiers killed, according to new statements by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Azerbaijan had on the same day said that 50 of its troops were killed in fighting, with both sides blaming the other for aggression and provocations. Pashinyan has accused Azerbaijan forces of breaching and occupying 10 square kilometers of sovereign Armenian territory following clashes which began anew this week, for which it’s seeking Russian military help.

Russia said it brokered a ceasefire Tuesday, but it quickly fell apart as cross-border shelling has continued. “If we say that Azerbaijan has carried out aggression against Armenia, it means that they have managed to establish control over some territories,” Pashinyan told his parliament, according to TASS. 

“Pashinyan said 105 Armenian service personnel had been killed since the attacks began, and that the spa town of Jermuk, known across the former Soviet Union for its hot springs, had been shelled,” according to Reuters. Moscow is meanwhile urging that both warring sides hold to agreed-upon terms for ceasefire: 

“We expect that an agreement reached as a result of Russian mediation on a ceasefire from 9:00 a.m. Moscow time (06:00 GMT) on Sept. 13 this year will be carried out in full,” the Foreign Ministry in Moscow said in a statement, adding that it was “extremely concerned” by the uptick in fighting.

But there’s as yet little or no evidence that the ceasefire ever got of the ground or held at all. “It is difficult to overestimate the role of the Russian Federation and [President Vladimir] Putin personally. Obviously, the president is making every effort to help de-escalate tensions on the border,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed of Russian mediation efforts during a Tuesday briefing. 

There are reports the several hundred Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh are in the line of fire…

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Now with at least 105 Armenian troops killed and more injured, and as Azerbaijan continues to vow “necessary response measures” by military units stationed at the border, fears are growing of a full-blown war:

“Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Paruyr Hovhannisyan told Reuters the clashes could escalate into a war – a second major armed conflict in the former Soviet Union while Russia’s military is focused on the invasion of Ukraine.

As we detailed earlier, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has sided fully with Azerbaijan, as has been the clear pattern in the recent past. During the last border conflict, Erdogan was reported to have greenlighted Turkish-backed Syrian Islamist mercenaries being sent to the conflict to fight Armenians.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1569870153839693825&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Farmenia-warns-allies-clashes-could-escalate-war-azerbaijan-has-taken-territory&sessionId=46c0af642854fa595bf45ae9619890979eafcd96&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

With Yerevan urging greater Russian intervention on its side, and Baku’s close relationship to Turkey and Erdogan, it’s a recipe for potential broader conflagration.

As Reuters underscores, “A full-fledged conflict would risk dragging in Russia and Turkey, and destabilize an important corridor for pipelines carrying oil and gas just as war in Ukraine disrupts energy supplies.” Iran has also warned against “border changes” in this latest flare-up of fighting.

END

Ron Paul on sanctions imposed by Europe and it is killing them

(Ron Paul)

Ron Paul: Europe Commits Suicide By Sanctions

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

A Swiss billboard is making the rounds on social media depicting a young woman on the telephone. The caption reads, “Does the neighbor heat the apartment to over 19 degrees (66F)? Please inform us.” While the Swiss government has dismissed the poster as a fake, the penalties Swiss citizens face for daring to warm their homes are very real. According to the Swiss newspaper Blick, those who violate the 66 degree heating limit could face as many as three years in prison!

Prison time for heating your home?

In the “free” world?

How is it possible in 2022, when Switzerland and the rest of the political west have achieved the greatest economic success in history, that the European continent faces a winter like something out of the dark ages?

Sanctions.

While long promoted – often by those opposed to war – as a less destructive alternative to war, sanctions are in reality acts of war. And as we know with interventionism and war, the result is often unintended consequences and even blowback.

European sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine earlier this year will likely go down in history as a prime example of how sanctions can result in unintended consequences. While seeking to punish Russia by cutting off gas and oil imports, European Union politicians forgot that Europe is completely dependent on Russian energy supplies and that the only people to suffer if those imports are shut down are the Europeans themselves.

The Russians simply pivoted to the south and east and found plenty of new buyers in China, India, and elsewhere. In fact, Russia’s state-run Gazprom energy company has reported that its profits have increased by 100 percent in the first half of this year.

Russia is getting rich while Europeans are facing a freezing winter and economic collapse. All because of the false belief that sanctions are a cost-free way to force other countries to do what you want them to do.

What happens when the people see dumb government policies making energy bills skyrocket as the economy grounds to a halt? They become desperate and take to the streets in protest.

This weekend thousands of Austrians took to the streets in a “Freedom Rally” to demand an end to sanctions and the opening of Nord Stream II, the gas pipeline on the verge of opening earlier this year. Last week an estimated 100,000 Czechs took to the streets of Prague to protest NATO and EU policy. In France, the “Yellow Vests” are back in the streets protesting the destruction of their economy in the name of “defeating” Russia in Ukraine. In Germany, Serbia, and elsewhere, protests are gearing up.

Even the Washington Post was forced to admit that sanctions on Russia are not having the intended effect. In an article yesterday, the paper worries that sanctions are inflicting “collateral damage in Russia and beyond, potentially even hurting the very countries that impose them. Some even worried that the sanctions intended to deter and weaken Putin could end up emboldening and strengthening him.”

This is all predictable. Sanctions kill. Sometimes they kill innocents in the country targeted for destruction and sometimes they kill innocents in the country imposing them.

The solution, as always, is non-intervention. No sanctions, no “color revolutions,” no meddling. It’s really that simple.

end

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

The Ukrainian grain scam that will shortly blow up

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:50 PM (1 hour ago)
to

I’ve been watching what is happening in the Black Sea at the port of Odessa and other related ports where the Ukrainians have been shipping grain. There’s some people may recall the idea behind allowing the Ukrainians to use Ukrainian ports to ship grain was to provide countries that were on the verge of suffering real starvation to receive grain shipments from grain that was stored in in silos at port and thus also provide money for Ukrainians. Ask objectively did Europe send arms for grain? There is a real story there as to who profited. Trace the money flow. I leave that to others.

What was to happen has not happened in this scam; out of 87 cargo vessels filled with Ukrainian grain only two ships went to needy countries, the rest went to Europe. This tells us that all the noise and narrative about Russia blocking shipments of grains to needy countries was a complete and utter lie.  No doubt the Ukrainians knew with all the narratives given at the time to Third World countries whether it be African nations or even countries like Egypt, it was all a lie. The question is whether or not such countries will favorably look upon Europeans who have a ignored needs of of such countries to satisfy their own needs at their expense.

Can one imagine the horrible torture of the poor souls in those nations upcoming soon? Does anyone think about the mass migration of starving North Africans coming to Europe? Or does Europe recognize that perhaps this action will serve notice to the third world about the real reality of who cares and who does not. This has been recognized by the UN, Turkey and Russia. Can you imagine what relatives of such poor souls already in Europe might do out of anger? Let alone, what happens as the lights dim in Europe due to energy disruptions? And you wonder why smart money is betting on a free fall in the Euro? Expect a 50% devaluation before it is done.  I know awful, but coming, it is already in play.

At some point, perhaps sooner than later this naive approach to supplying the Ukrainian regime as a proxy of weapons to kill Russians will move to another level. When this happens the visibility of borders or even perhaps the parties linked will find new light that will be deadly in exposure. Hybrid war never ends well as we have seen historically in places like Korea or Vietnam.

Equally as troubling is India’s decision to impose a 20% tax on all rice shipments outside of India, placing enormous supply at risk. India is the largest rice exporter in the world followed by Vietnam and then California. California is experiencing a severe drought which will devastate Crop yields this year. More than 1,000,000 tons of rice remains stranded at Indian ports as buyers are refusing to pay the additional 20% tax imposed. Margins are thin on rice and this tax is unaffordable. We can only ask what kind of problem this will create for food supply as India sells to over 150 countries and now has tremendous leverage to secure profits at the expense of many nations in this food shortage that is occurring in real time.

Looks like no one wants to waste the crisis for profit, so expect the coming ads about starvation coming soon, as people ask for money and then ask who profited from the misery of starvation?

We have learnt nothing about being a brother’’s brother as opposed to a brother’s keeper and that is truly sad because most people are better than this and it is a political class of bananas that continues the farce. The question is for how long before mistakes historical in nature come calling for dues? They always do, which is why it is called history.

END

The Kharkov Game-Changer — Strategic Culture

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:15 AM (14 minutes ago)
to

Whatever happens now, one might imagine the intensity will increase with real pain for the Ukraine and its’ inhabitants.
Word comes from a number of sources and venues that 1 out of 3 soldiers wearing a Ukrainian chevron was a citizen of a NATO country. There is no question that a 5 to 1 advantage was enjoyed and that Russia made a number of strategic errors in not having adequate troops in the area. And quite contrary to PR nonsense, there was sudden surprise evacuation of troops that started a week prior. So it was obvious that some retreat to a different line of contact was under way. Why the Russians did not mine the area is a mystery just like in the south de-mining activities by Ukraine give away intent to strike. Given the delay, it becomes clear that logistics is playing it’s part as Ukrainians are forced to use roads for military vehicles and tanks run a lot slower on roads than trains. And given the recent missile barrage one imagines this was the intent. The state of repair of such equipment usually shows it’s readiness on road trips.
Perhaps, there are other reasons as it is still a mystery of why more and more troops are ring fencing Moscow now with the number exceeding the 75,000 with another 7,000 hardened combat soldiers having arrived.
Whatever comes out shortly, one can be sure that some escalation measured or not is coming as early as next week.  It is naive to speculate on what comes given that now it is quite clear that a state of war exists between Russia and NATO and this reality will not be denied for long and be over looked for long with unpredictable events and results for all parties party to this conflict. It is like the Yemen mess that has unexpected consequences, and publicly denied as to participation.
Crazy times are likely to get more crazy.

GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL//

GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY

END

Paul Alexander..

They told us that mRNA does not get into the nucleus & does not impact the DNA & does not alter the DNA; well turns out that too was a LIE & we hear it from horses mouth can be passed on to children

Whether initial intent was ‘good’, it is clear this got away & they have no idea what they are doing, NONE & this mRNA, RNA complex platform IN THE WRONG HANDS for the WRONG reasons is deadly, COVID?

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 13
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

What is very dangerous in this speech here, yet we knew this and did not need this WEF lady to tell us this in 2015, is that whatever is being done at a genetic level cellularly, can be passed on to off-spring.

We have no idea what we have done with these mRNA COVID gene injections. This mRNA platform, this gene delivery platform is proven deadly and DOES NOT WORK! Must be stopped! Not in our children!

The critical issue is this, Pfizer and Moderna et al. have never to this day, run the clinical studies for the proper duration to assess the outcomes and to ‘exclude harms’.

And it is not about ‘trusting’ them for as you see, all they have told you, from Bourla, Bancel, Fauci, Birx, Fancis Collins and the entire cabal of malfeasants IMO, have been lies! From day 1. You point to anything, from the origins of the virus, to the lockdowns, to the testing, to the school closures, to the injections, you point to one, just one statement that was true and correct. Just one.

SOURCE

END

CATASTROPHIC Israeli cover-up of COVID vaccine harms: Yaffa Shir-Raz, health researcher in Israel, blows the whistle and releases twitter (10 posts) of what she uncovered & what Israel is hiding

The short of the following tweets (I will embed as it will be taken down) is that the COVID gene injections were always fraudulent, dangerous, harmful & ineffective; jail them all, Fauci, Bourla etc.

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 12
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

This is based on a leaked video June 2022:

VACCINE IMPACT/

VACCINE INJURY/

UK Announces it Will No Longer Offer COVID Jabs to Children Under 12 Amid New Data That Shows Risks Outweigh Benefits › American Greatness

Robert Hryniak

9:03 AM (1 minute ago)toAbout time..https://amgreatness.com/2022/09/09/uk-announces-it-will-no-longer-offer-covid-jabs-to-children-under-12-amid-new-data-that-shows-risks-outweigh-benefits/

END

/VACCINE IMPACT

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

“Yesterday’s CPI Showed Why Nearly All People Who Pretend They Know What Is Going On Really Have No Clue”

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 11:05 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday’s US CPI report was one of those market-moving blockbusters that underline why nearly all the people who like to pretend they know what is going on really have no clue. I include myself in that group too for having been swept away by the trend expecting a weak inflation number for August on the back of lower gasoline prices – though in my defense I have been warning “not transitory” for over a year, and yesterday specifically flagged that US CPI was only going back to 2% again in magical DSGE models, not real life.

Regardless, what we saw yesterday was a 0.1% m-o-m rise in headline CPI against expectations of a -0.1% print, so the y-o-y rate only declined slightly from 8.5% to 8.3%; and core CPI soared 0.6% m-o-m vs. 0.3% expectations to increase from 5.9% to 6.3% y-o-y. Despite the drop in gasoline prices, the contribution from rents (covered here many times before) soared; so did grocery prices; so did health insurance. Even the BLS’s new core core core measure, which takes out energy, food, shelter, and used cars and trucks was up further to well above 6% y-o-y. As Larry Summers put it via Twitter, itself in the headlines again for several reasons:

“Today’s CPI report confirms that the US has a serious inflation problem. Core inflation is higher this month than for the quarter, higher this quarter than last quarter, higher this half of the year than the previous one, and higher last year than the previous one. Median inflation used to be a favourite indicator for team transitory. This month it was at its highest ever reading. It is highly implausible that inflation will fall to 2 percent without unemployment exceeding 4.5 percent. Yet this is the most pessimistic view among 19 members of the FOMC. Dangerous group think. With core inflation running above 7 percent this month and likely, given rent behaviour, to remain elevated, I fear it is unlikely that a peak Fed funds rate around 4 will be enough to restore 2 percent inflation.”

Markets are indeed now pricing for a terminal Fed Funds rate of over 4.25%. Moreover, they are not just expecting a 75bps hike in September, but risks of 100bps!

That threat was underlined by Summers, who added: “It has seemed self-evident to me for some time now that a 75bps move in September is appropriate. And, if I had to choose between 100bps in September and 50bps, I would choose a 100bps move to reinforce credibility.” More importantly, the same message was echoed by the Fed’s Wall Street Journal whisperer, Nick Timiraos, who underlined yesterday’s data “clinches the case for the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates by at least” 75bps at its next meeting.

That is not what you call a timorous Fed response – and the market was understandably all the synonyms for the same as a result: fearful; apprehensive; faint-hearted; trembling; quaking; cowering; weak-kneed, etc. That’s what you get if you are long and wrong.

The Dow was down 3.9%, the most since June 2020; the S&P was down 4.3%; the Nasdaq was down 5.2%. US 2-year yields leaped 28bps intraday and closed up 18bps at 3.76%, the highest since 2007; US 10-year yields spiked 16bps and closed up 5bps at 3.41%. The DXY dollar index soared 1.4% on the day. And yet oil managed to hold its ground on news that the White House is considering refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at $80 per barrel. Given what our energy analyst Joe DeLaura is forecasting in terms of prices, that would be a bargain. That is to say that even the current help to CPI from lower gasoline prices likely won’t last too much longer.

That backdrop will give Asian markets more than enough to chew, or choke, on today – in particular, let’s see how the PBOC tries to draw a new line in the sand on CNY: perhaps by building more houses on the same foundation? However, there is more to focus on than that in those terms. As Xi Jinping prepares to meet Vladimir Putin in Uzbekistan at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which even Bloomberg points out aims to build ‘anyone but the West’ global infrastructure, potential geopolitical risks are flagged from the two leaders being seen as too close when everyone Western wants to be as far apart from Russia as possible.

Moreover, Reuters claims, ‘US considers China sanctions to deter Taiwan action, Taiwan presses EU, saying the idea is to extend the Russia playbook and “take sanctions beyond measures already taken in the West to restrict some trade and investment with China in sensitive technologies like computer chips and telecoms equipment.” Some analysts suggest China’s military could be the specific focus. However, given Beijing’s dual civilian/military use policy and the reality that, as in The Matrix, any civilian anywhere can become an Agent, that goal is either detached from reality, or implies a reality where we are detached – which would be highly inflationary.

Today also sees the EU’s State of the Union address: this year it could be titled “What a state of the Union!” Obviously, it has to explain to the public what Europe’s energy strategy is. Yes, we are now down 50% from the crazy peaks in gas and baseload electricity prices seen last month in very thin trading. However, we are still up 8-10 times from what was normal, and the most optimistic projections assume we stabilise around 5 times that. These are not energy prices at which normal economic activity can be sustained.

We are almost certainly going to see temporary levies on the energy sector to offset some of the massive cost of subsidies elsewhere. Yet while logical this does not leave capital to invest in new energy supply: where will that come from, if the EU is not to be held hostage again?

We are also going to have to see official rationing of energy usage, or “load shedding”: planned cut-offs to some sectors at some times to prevent the risk of random blackouts. The figure being floated is 5% during peak periods and 10% overall. That doesn’t sound like a lot – but would you like to lose 10% of your body? That’s what we are talking about in economic terms.

Simply, there will be massive knock-on effects across supply-chains, which is inflationary; and on employment, which is deflationary; and more strain on public finances, so upwards pressure on bond yields; or, if monetized, downwards pressure on the Euro, which would be inflationary.

Yet as we pick up the pieces from yesterday, and some might be shifting from 50bps to 75bps or from 75bps to 100bps from the Fed, many will still be updating their DSGE models to show an even higher near-term spike in CPI… and then the same magical return to 2%. Indeed, how many days or hours until we see headlines suggesting “the Fed doesn’t mean it,” or “the higher rates go up, the faster they have to come down,” or “it is still transitory if you look at (obscure object of choice)”?

END   

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

AUSTRALIA

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.99950 UP  0.0016 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL MIXED 

USA/ YEN 143.31   DOWN  1.14 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1552 UP   0.0050

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN26.25 PTS OR .80%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 479.76 PTS OR 2.48%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  2.51%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 479.76 PTS OR 2.48% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.25 PTS OR .80% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 2.51% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 796.01 OR 2.78%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1704.30

silver:$19.48

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 109.30 DOWN 23  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

 WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.74% DOWN 1  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.249% UP 1    AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.84%// DOWN 1  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.98  UP 0   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +1.699% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.9996 UP  .0017   or 17 basis points

USA/Japan: 142.84 DOWN 1.621 OR YEN UP 162 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1567UP .0065 OR 65 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0009 OR 9 BASIS pts  to 1.3158

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DWN 6.9605 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9723

TURKISH LIRA:  18.23  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.249

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3  IN basis points from TUESDAY at  3.390% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.47 DOWN 4  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 109.19 DOWN 34 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 108.56 PTS OR  1.47%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 160.95 POINTS OR 1.22%

Paris CAC CLOSED  DOWN 23.28 PTS OR 0.37% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 8.40 OR  0.10%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 109.60PTS OR  0.49%

WTI Oil price 89.13  12: EST

Brent Oil:  94.64   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  59.83  UP 0  AND 7/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.699

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9978 DOWN .0003     OR  3 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1536 up  .0034 or  34 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.16 DOWN 1.297//YEN UP 130 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3176 UP 0.0008  (CDN dollar, DOWN 8 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 88.43

Brent OIL:  94.06

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.412 DOWN 1 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.467  DOWN 4  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.24

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  59.88  UP 0 AND  1 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 30.12 PTS OR 0.10 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 100.78 PTS OR 0.84%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 26,39 DOWN 0.88 PTS (3.23)%

GLD: $157.93 DOWN 0.62 OR 0.39%

SLV/ $17.83 UP 17 CENTS OR 0.95%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Dead-Cat-Bounce Finds Extra Life With Late-Day Panic-Buying

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 04:00 PM

After yesterday’s bloodbath, there was some hope for bounce overnight, but sellers pressured each dead-cat-bounce and PPI didn’t have enough juice to spark any panic-buying from algos (or manufacture a gamma squeeze) until the last few minutes.

We saw a big appear as Europe’s cash markets opened (but that faded into the early US session). Then we saw some chaotic trading after PPI and the US cash open which lifted stocks (Nasdaq was up 1% around the European close), but that all went sideways in the afternoon with the S&P, Dow, and Russell 2000 all into the red. Then, with about 15 minutes left in the day, everything was panic-bid lifting the S&P and Small Caps green (with Nasdaq leading) while The Dowdesperately clung to unchanged…

And before we leave equity land, one thing that got a lot people’s attention yesterday was VIX.

Yesterday was the first time in history that the S&P sold off more than -4% and the VIX closed below 30 as can be seen in the chart below from Lee Coppersmith…

However, we suspect the lack of huge spike in VIX was due to the massive call-buying that occurred in the 24-36 hours ahead of the CPI Print (which pushed VIX up alongside stocks). So, when the unexpected collapse happened, those aggressive call-buyers turned sellers and provided some pressure downwards on implied volatility

Source: Bloomberg

On the rates side of the market, expectations for a 100bps hike in September slipped modestly (now 26%) while the odds of a 75bps hike in November rose to 70% (and 50% chance of 50bps in December too)…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, the market is pricing in a ‘tighter’ Fed but we note that while The Fed’s terminal rate has soared, so has the belief that The Fed will slash rates soon after – presumably in the face of the recession they induce…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were mixed today – after yesterday’s bloodbath – with long-end yields dropping almost 3bps (erasing yesterday’s spike) while the short-end yields jumped further (2Y +3bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which flattened the yield curve to its most inverted since 2000…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar faded back very modestly from yesterday’s spike…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold extended yesterday’s losses – tumbling back below $1700 spot. Will we bounce again this time?

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude rallied up to $90 intraday before fading back…

Finally, as Charlie McElligott warned earlier, an impulsive surge higher in “Real Rates” means a rate-of-change shock in the “Cost of Capital,” and that risks slamming the brakes on the US economy via punitive borrowing costs on both Corporates and Consumers, which spills over into lower demand for goods and services…

All of which means equities face a valuation ‘death blow’ from the double-whammy of multiple destruction (from higher rates), AND lower earnings (from economic slowdown).

Source: Bloomberg

And tonight is Ethereum’s ‘Merge’ and who knows what will happen to the price of the second largest cryptocurrency. Today saw it stabilize around $1600 after yesterday’s crypto carnage…

Source: Bloomberg

Is the Merge a ‘sell the news’ event or the start of a new adoption path?

I) / EARLY MORNING//  TRADING//

END

THIS AFTERNOON

ii) USA DATA//

Core PPI prices hotter than expected as services cost rise

(zerohedge)

Core Producer Prices Hotter-Than-Expected In August As Services Cost Rise

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 08:37 AM

After yesterday’s ‘peak inflation’-narrative-crushing CPI print, analysts expected headline US producer prices to drop 0.1% MoM (after falling 0.5% MoM in July) and it did but core PPI rose 0.4% MoM (more than expected 0.3% MoM).

Source: Bloomberg

Core PPI rose 7.3% YoY (considerably hotter than the +7.0% expected, but less than July’s +7.6%)…

Source: Bloomberg

So just like CPI, we saw a rise in Services costs while Goods costs slipped…

40% of the increase in prices for final demand services can be attributed to margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, which rose 14.2 percent.

Over three-quarters of the decrease in prices for final demand goods is attributable to the index for gasoline, which fell 12.7 percent

A drop in Energy costs dominated the weakness…

The pipeline for headline PPI remains upwardly focused but has been reducing in recent months and fell dramatically in August…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, margins continue to come under pressure as the CPI-PPI spread remains red for the 20th straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

So is PPI signaling peak inflation? Or are Services costs about to surprise the market?

END

iii)USA economic commentaries

An extremely important commentary.  Always pay attention to Cabana.

(zerohedge?MARK CABANA)

NY Fed Guru Says Powell Will “Overdo It” And Cause A Recession

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 09:50 PM

When BofA’s top Rates strategist, and former NY Fed analyst, Marc Cabana speaks, investors, the Fed – and even his former Fed co-worker and repo guru, Zoltan Pozsar – listen. And what Cabana has to say is always extremely important.

Two months after Cabana’s rates team published a must read note in which it predicted that the Fed will be forced to end QT much sooner than expected

“Fed QT that is stopped in Sept ’23 will result in $1tn less balance sheet reduction vs our prior estimates through end ’24. Over a similar period, early QT end would result in $780b less UST financing need + $350b of additional Fed UST demand (from Fed MBS paydowns reinvested into USTs).”

… today the former NY Fed guru warned of precisely the same thing that we have been saying for years, namely that the Fed won’t stop – and probably can’t stop – until it breaks something. Or some things.

Speaking to Bloomberg TV just one hour before today’s CPI print came in far hotter than expected and convinced markets that a 100bps hike is likely on deck next week, Cabana said the Fed is so intent on stopping inflation it will likely raise rates until the US economy is in a recession.

“The Fed is probably going to overdo it,” the global head of US rates strategy at BofA, told Bloomberg TV. “We have seen them turn very hawkish with the labor-market strength. We think that the Fed will try and stick to this higher-for-longer mantra. That’s probably going to result in a recession.”

Shortly after Cabana’s interview, the CPI print sent stocks plunging to their worst daily loss since the summer of 2020, as Treasury yields soared across the curve, with the two-year rate soaring as much as 18 basis points to about 3.75% — the highest since 2007 — while the terminal rate, or the implied rate for where the tightening cycle will top out next year, leaped to about 4.3%.

And since by then the Fed will have broken more than just the economy (last week we had our first major credit event as Mike Hartnett noted), expectations that the Fed will have to cut even faster than before in 2023 also jumped.

Cabana also picked up on a point we made over the weekend, namely that “the Fed probably won’t trust that until they see the labor market soften more meaningfully. It certainly seems like the Fed is dead-set on ensuring that they get that labor market slowdown.”

Translation: as Jason Furman wrote late last week, for the Fed to lower inflation to ~2% by the 2024 presidential election, unemployment will have to rise to 6.5% from 3.7% currently…

… resulting in a tidal wave of job less equal to at least an additional 4.8 million unemployed.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have said the bank is committed to its goal of cutting inflation down to 2% over time. Cabana provided a warning to investors on that point.

“I do worry that this is a Fed that wants to see even more tightening of financial conditions in order to have faith that they will be able to achieve their 2% inflation target,” he said. The risks are skewed in the Fed continuing to sound hawkish, with that being be “a headwind for risk assets,” Cabana added.

And of course, he is right… to a point, the point being when enough Democrats scream bloody murder at the coming unemployment tsunami and force Powell to reverse. What happens then? Why the exact thing we have been saying for over a year: the Fed’s only option will be to raise its “inflation target” from 2% to 3%, something even Fuhrman agrees is coming…

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have said the bank is committed to its goal of cutting inflation down to 2% over time. Cabana provided a warning to investors on that point. “I do worry that this is a Fed that wants to see even more tightening of financial conditions in order to have faith that they will be able to achieve their 2% inflation target,” he said. The risks are skewed in the Fed continuing to sound hawkish, with that being be “a headwind for risk assets,” Cabana added.

… and an event which will send all assets to fresh all time highs, which may explain why so many stubbornly refuse to sell stocks, well aware that when the Fed pivot comes, all markets will reprice exponentially higher within nanoseconds.

end

One Bank Warns A “Hike Until It Breaks” Accident Is Now The Most Likely Market Scenario

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 12:05 PM

It is now clear to an increasing number of recency-bias-blinkered investors that The Fed’s historical modus operandi is very much back in play – after unleashing liquidity supernovas, they tighten “until something breaks”

…and then of course, rinse and repeat…

And now Nomura’s Charlie McElligott warns that a “hike until it breaks” accident is now the most likely outcome, following the shock Inflation re-acceleration month-over-month (not just Core Services, but Core Goods) into an overheating Labor market with dangerously strong Wage Growth, which disturbingly hints at the Fed’s “Entrenched Inflation” worst-case scenarios:

1) Wage-Price Spiral and

2) Unanchored Inflation Expectations

As markets continue ratcheting-up their Terminal Rate projections from the Fed in reaction to the Core CPI upside surprise (April23 FF now implying a peak of 4.43%, adding ~44bps of hikes to the near-term Fed path in less than a day!), the probabilities of the left-tail US economic “hard landing” scenario continue to explode higher.

Accordingly, the market did the “violent tightening of US financial conditions” work for the Fed, sending the US Dollar and Real Rates surging, which remains pure-poison for Risk-Assets (after a few days of dovish pivot hope)…

Simply put, McElligott warns, an impulsive surge higher in “Real Rates” means a rate-of-change shock in the “Cost of Capital,” and that risks slamming the brakes on the US economy via punitive borrowing costs on both Corporates and Consumers, which spills over into lower demand for goods and services…

All of which means equities face a valuation ‘death blow’ from the double-whammy of multiple destruction (from higher rates), AND lower earnings (from economic slowdown).

And as much as talking heads will kick and scream and close their eyes and block their ears, the Nomura strategist is clear that, unfortunately at this juncture, this intentional “crash-landing” of the economy has seemingly now become the lone path left available for the Federal Reserve in order to kill the “demand-side” of their idioyncratic Inflation disaster, which likely:

1) necessitates a Recession going hand-in-hand with

2) requiring a markedly-higher US Unemployment rate…

…and it seems clear now that the market “gets the joke”.

McElligott does offer a silver lining – almost. Echoing the thoughts of Jeff Gundlach and Scott Minerd, the Nomura strategist clearly believes more downside in asset prices is coming – from an overly aggressive Fed – but that is hastening a recession and The Fed’s flip-flop back to rate-cuts and QE… and ‘buy all the things’…

…perversely, a “Crash it Sooner” Fed hiking now then means a “nearer” and larger magnitude commensurate Fed CUTTING CYCLE thereafter (bear flattening in UST Cash curves now, forward bull-steepeners later)

As such, this is why EDM3-EDZ3 (Jun23-Dec23) Eurodollars added ~8bps of EASING yesterday…

the deeper the “hard landing” Recession, the larger and more aggressive the ultimate Fed EASING thereafter, and options markets continue to price for this counter-intutive fli-flop…

The issue – as always – is if traders start once again to front-run that flip-flop, then it reflexively reduces the magnitude and extends the timing of the flip-flop.

Rail Union With 4,900 Members Rejects Tentative Agreement As Shutdown Looms

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 11:55 AM

Update (1155ET): It’s becoming increasingly possible that a major freight rail stoppage could materialize following the news thousands of rail workers rejected labor agreements this morning. 

The 4,900 members from District 19 under the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) voted against the Tentative Agreement (proposed collective bargaining agreements that have not been ratified) with the National Carriers’ Conference Committee (NCCC). 

IAM District 19 released the following statement:

“The Tentative Agreement has been rejected and the strike authorization vote was approved by IAM District 19 members. Out of respect for other unions in the ratification process, an extension has been agreed to until Sept. 29, 2022 at 12 p.m. ET. This extension will allow us to continue to negotiate changes with the NCCC in the hopes of achieving an agreement our membership would ratify.

“IAM freight rail members are skilled professionals who have worked in difficult conditions through a pandemic to make sure essential products get to their destinations. We look forward to continuing that vital work with a fair contract that ensures our members and their families are treated with the respect they deserve for keeping America’s goods and resources moving through the pandemic. The IAM is grateful for the support of those working toward a solution as our members and freight rail workers seek equitable agreements.”

IAM District 19 members are locomotive machinists, track equipment specialists, and maintenance personnel. 

This comes as the US Labor Secretary Marty Walsh met with freight railroad companies and union officials Wednesday morning to avert a strike that could result in a nationwide shutdown of the freight rail system as soon as Friday.  

END

Rail Shutdown Looms Large Even As Congress Steps In

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 10:05 AM

By John Gallagher of FreightWaves

A joint resolution by U.S. lawmakers aimed at ending the threat of a strike or lockout provides little incentive for avoiding a debilitating shutdown of the nation’s railroads, according to a former rail industry legal consultant.

Introduced in the Senate on Monday by Roger Wicker, R.-Miss., and Richard Burr, R-N.C., the legislation would adopt the recommendations issued in August by the Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) that were meant to be used as the foundation for a new contract. Such action is supported by major business and shipper groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Fertilizer Institute.

But getting a divided Congress to quickly pass such settlement legislation offers little chance of resolving the dispute, according to John Brennan III, a former senior counsel for the Union Pacific Railroad.

“Congress is in the unfortunate position of resolving a potential strike on very difficult terms, and what Wicker and Burr are proposing is a cramdown,” Brennan told FreightWaves.

Brennan pointed out that when the last rail strikes occurred in the early 1990s, Congress passed settlement resolutions within 24 hours. But the partisan divide in Congress today, along with the upcoming midterm elections, could make it difficult to pass settlement legislation before midnight on Thursday when a work stoppage would be permitted under the law.

“Expedited passage of this legislation requires unanimous consent, and one senator or congressman on either side of the aisle looking to gain political points will be able to hold this up — the possibility for theatrics is endless,” Brennan said.

Another path Congress could have chosen — simply extending the status quo for a certain period — may have offered more chance for an eventual settlement, although this also likely would have received pushback from labor-supportive Democrats, said Brennan, who is also a former chief of staff for the House of Representatives’ railroads subcommittee.

Delaying a possible strike through congressional action was also opposed by the American Trucking Associations. 

“A possible strike or lockout in October or November is arguably worse than one next week — although any disruption will cost the nation billions of dollars of lost productivity,” said ATA President and CEO Chris Spear this past week. “Moreover, our members and every other business in America will have to maintain and update contingency plans unless the rail matter is resolved expeditiously.”

Instead, legislation requiring final-offer arbitration — also known as “baseball” arbitration because of its use in resolving major league contract salary disputes — may have offered the best path toward a fast settlement, according to Brennan.

“Decision-making power would be delegated to experienced, independent arbitrators who would choose between a best and final offer from either management or labor — a very scary proposition for both sides, and therefore an incentive to force them to the middle and settle,” Brennan said. “The legislation could help to avoid political controversy with the upcoming election looming.”

The National Railway Labor Conference, which is negotiating on behalf of railroad management, confirmed Tuesday that nine of the 12 unions involved in the contract talks have now come to a tentative agreement based on the PEB’s recommendations.

However, the two unions that together make up roughly half of the rank-and-file workers covered under the contract — the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers/Transportation Division, and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen — have yet to settle with management.

* * * 

With that said, the two hold-out rail worker labor unions (noted above) risk causing widespread supply chain chaos if labor agreements with rail freight companies aren’t reached by the end of the week. This could mean more than 100,000 rail workers could soon leave the job. 

Railroads are set to halt shipments of some commodities, farm goods, and other critical items on Thursday as the industry braces for work stoppages that could begin as early as Friday. If strikes materialize and the nation’s freight rail system is disrupted, it could cost the economy a whopping $2 billion daily.  

Norfolk Southern Corp. announced plans to halt unit train shipments of bulk commodities on Thursday. The railroad said it would stop receiving automobiles at its loading facilities Wednesday afternoon. 

“We are hearing several rail carriers are tentatively planning to wind down shipments,” Max Fisher, chief economist at the National Grain and Feed Association, which represents most US grain handlers, told Bloomberg. 

Reuters cited Justin Louchheim, the Senior Director of Government Affairs at The Fertilizer Institute, saying most rail freight companies stopped accepting new shipments of ammonia fertilizer and other potentially hazardous materials. 

Other railroads are following suit. BNSF Railway Co. and Union Pacific Corp. representatives told Bloomberg they would curtail new shipments. 

“We must take actions to prepare for the eventuality of a labor strike if the remaining unions cannot come to an agreement,” BNSF said in a statement.

Fisher said railroads halting new cargoes is a move at ensuring trains aren’t stranded if a labor strike materializes. 

Other commodities are at risk, such as coal and crude product transports that could interrupt pre-winter stockpiling by utilities, triggering an increase in natural gas demand by power plant generators. Some estimates show railroads account for about a third or more of all US freight, meaning a strike would worsen supply chain snarls that could send inflation higher. 

“Almost all ethanol is moved via rail and it is produced in the Midwest,” noted Debnil Chowdhury of S&P Global Commodity Insights. “There is no easy substitute for rail and the US government will have to make decisions around blend targets if ethanol movement to demand centers are constrained due to a strike.”

Besides freight, the strike prospects are about to affect passenger railroad service. An Amtrak spokesperson said seven long-distance routes starting Wednesday across major metro areas, including New York City, Chicago, New Orleans, Los Angeles, and Seattle, would be halted. 

The move to suspend service is one sign of the fallout from a labor dispute between unions and freight railroads that could descend into crippling shutdown of the nation’s freight rail network as early as Friday. Amtrak said it had begun phased service adjustments to prepare for a potential interruption that could “significantly impact” its service between US cities outside of the Northeastern US between Boston and Washington, DC –Bloomberg

The White House announced contingency plans on Tuesday as US Labor Secretary Marty Walsh will meet with railroad and union representatives in Washington on Wednesday morning. 

end

Amtrak Canceling All Long-Distance Trains Ahead Of “Potentially Disastrous” Rail Strike

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 03:40 PM

Update (1525ET):

So it begins: on Wednesday afternoon, Amtrak said it will cancel all long distance trains starting Thursday, September 15 “to avoid possible passenger disruptions while enroute” as White House-led talks between freight-rail companies and unions continued in a race to avoid a rail-system shutdown Friday.  

“Such an interruption could significantly impact intercity passenger rail service, as Amtrak operates almost all of our 21,000 route miles outside the Northeast Corridor on track owned, maintained, and dispatched by freight railroads,” the company said in a statement Wednesday, adding that it has already started phased adjustments which “include canceling all Long Distance trains and could be followed by impacts to most State- Supported routes”

“Adjustments are necessary to ensure trains can reach their terminals before freight railroad service interruption if a resolution in negotiations is not reached”

The good news: most travel within the Amtrak-owned Northeast Corridor (Boston – New York – Washington) and related branch lines to Albany, N.Y., Harrisburg, Penn,, and Springfield, Mass., would not be affected. Additionally the Acela service is not affected, and only a small number of Northeast Regional departures would be impacted.

As reported earlier, about 125,000 freight-rail workers could walk off the job if a deal isn’t reached by Friday’s deadline, with a strike potentially costing the world’s biggest economy more than $2 billion a day. The stoppage would be the largest of its kind since 1992, and it would snarl a wide range of goods transported by rail – from food to metal and auto parts – and threatens travel chaos for thousands of commuters, while sending inflation soaring even more.

The White House is considering an emergency decree to keep key goods flowing.    

A Biden-appointed board last month issued a set of recommendations to resolve the dispute, including wage increases and better health coverage. But the proposal did not include terms on scheduling, attendance and other issues important to the two unions holding out for a deal, affiliates of the Teamsters Union and of the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers. Together, they represent about 60,000 employees.

A rail strike would be “potentially disastrous,” with “dire consequences that will cascade throughout the economy if a strike actually occurs,” Business Roundtable Chief Executive Officer Joshua Bolten told reporters. Supply-chain issues would be “geometrically magnified by the rail strike, and that’s not just the occasional Amazon box showing up two days later than it should — these are critical materials” such as chlorine to keep water clean that would be delayed, Bolten said.

According to Bloomberg, if all 7,000 long-distance freight trains available in the US stopped running, the country would need an extra 460,000 long-haul trucks daily to make up for the lost capacity, which isn’t possible because of equipment availability and driver shortages, American Trucking Associations President Chris Spear said in a letter to Congress.

The trucking industry — dealing with labor issues of its own — faces a deficit of 80,000 drivers nationwide, he wrote.

Needless to say, a strike would send diesel prices exploding higher, and through substitution, gasoline would follow suit.

While a majority of 12 railroad unions involved in the dispute had reached or were close to achieving tentative agreements with freight carriers as of Monday, members of those unions also would refuse to work unless a deal is reached with the whole group, leaders said. 

Ominously, the 4,900 members from District 19 under the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) voted against the Tentative Agreement with the National Carriers’ Conference Committee (NCCC).  The union members gave leadership the green light to strike if necessary. IAM District 19 said it also agreed to an extension until Sept. 29 to allow negotiations to continue.

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh on Wednesday led negotiations between the unions and railroads, with talks continuing through lunch without a break, a Labor Department spokesperson said.

Inflation is hurting the uSA consumer. Verizon shares slide after the CEO warns on subscriber decline.

(zerohedge)

Verizon Shares Slide After CEO Warns Of Wireless Subscriber Decline

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 01:58 PM

Verizon Communications shares slid Wednesday afternoon after Hans Vestberg, Chairman and CEO, told investors at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference that wireless subscriptions are expected to decline. 

Vestberg said the drop is the exodus of consumer wireless subscribers. He added that the loss would be partially offset by business subscriber gains, though he expects a decline in wireless subscribers overall. 

Verizon’s second quarter was a warning sign of darkening clouds forming above the wireless carrier. The carrier noted shrinking consumer budgets due to rising inflation resulted in no revenue growth and barely any subscriber growth. 

During the second quarter, Verizon said 215,000 consumer postpaid phone subscriptions were lost. That was offset by the addition of 227,000 postpaid business wireless subscriptions for an overall net gain of 12,000 subscribers. 

However, for the third quarter, it appears postpaid business wireless subscriptions might not be able to offset the losses of consumer ones. 

Vestbergm said the price hikes on wireless bills were the “right decision.” Other carriers, including AT&T, also raised prices for wireless subscribers this summer. 

Remember, AT&T warned that an increasing number of customers couldn’t pay their phone bills this summer. 

Verizon’s move to attract more low-end customers via the acquisition of TracFone Wireless appears to have been a good move during these challenging times for households: 

“We’re getting good traction,” the exec said. 

Verizon shares are down 1% in the late afternoon session. Year-to-date, shares are down 20% and have broken a decade-long support level. 

When questioned about stock buybacks, Vestbergm told the investing crowd: “we continue to invest in our business.”

It’s likely Vestberg will continue to blame shrinking consumer budgets due to rising inflation for Verizon’s third-quarter wireless subscriber decline when it reports earnings next month.

end

Not good for the housing sector

(Market Watch)

Mortgage rates hit 6% for the first time since 2008, while applications fall to lowest level since 1999

Sept. 14, 2022 at 7:17 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Mortgage applications fell again this week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said, with homebuyers staying on the sidelines as interest rates rise.

The numbers: A surge in mortgage rates to 6% is giving home shoppers chills, pushing them to wait to refinance or buy a home.

With rates doubling from where they were a year ago, demand from buyers continues to weaken, as reflected in the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage application volume.

The index is now at its lowest level since December 1999, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said on Wednesday.

The market index fell 1.2% to 255 in the week ending September 9. A year ago, the index stood at 707.9.

The big picture: Rates hitting 6% is a significant milestone, albeit a negative one, for buyers. Mortgage rates are now at the highest level since November 2008.

Higher rates have pushed buyers to rethink refinancing and contributed to other prospective buyers’ staying on the sidelines, the MBA said.

Yet there’s still a silver lining in the data. Government loans, which many first-time buyers tap on, bucked the trend and in fact, increased week over week, the MBA said.

These were loans from the Veterans Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

But there’s likely to be more pain in the sector. With inflation continuing to run hot, all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve, which will determine whether it’ll be more aggressive in hiking interest rates.

Higher rates are likely to cool demand even further. Which means that the downturn in housing continues.

Key details: The Refinance Index dropped by 4.2% and was down 83% compared to a year ago.

The Purchase Index — which measures mortgage applications for the purchase of a home — rose by 0.2% from the previous week.

The average contract rate for the 30-year mortgage for homes sold for $647,200 or less was 6.01% for the week ending September 9. That’s up from 5.94%% the week before, the MBA said.

For homes sold for over $647,200, the average rate for the 30-year was 5.56%. The 15-year rose to 5.3%.

The rate for adjustable-rate mortgages, which comprise 9.1% of total applications, rose to 4.83%.

-END-

SWAMP STORIES

Absolutely ridiculous! FBI now going after Mike Lindell, the pillow guy!!

(zerohedge)

FBI Tracks Down Mike Lindell On Hunting Trip, Surrounds His Car And Seizes Cell Phone

TUESDAY, SEP 13, 2022 – 08:30 PM

Prominent Trump supporter and 2020 election integrity skeptic Mike Lindell says he was stopped by the FBI Tuesday and had his cell phone seized.

While heading home from a hunting trip with a friend, Lindell said he was at a Hardees in Minnesota when “cars pulled up in front of us, to the side of us and behind us, and I said ‘they’re either bad guys or the FBI,'” he said. “Well, it turns out they were the FBI.

“I can’t even imagine that you can take someone’s phone because they want me to be a witness in the Tina Peters case. But I’m not a witness, they just want my phone.”

Lindell is the latest Trump ally to receive a warrant or subpoena by the FBI. Last week, the Biden DOJ hit dozens of Trump aides and allies with subpoenas as part of their investigation into efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 US election over claims of fraud that handed Joe Biden the White House, as well as the run up to the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot.

Interesting how the Biden DOJ waited more tha 18 months – right before midterms – to initiate legal action against Trumpworld. And Biden said he wouldn’t weaponize the Justice Department.

end

Watch: Dem Rep. Says “We Gotta Kill” MAGA “Extremists”

WEDNESDAY, SEP 14, 2022 – 08:50 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan sparked controversy Tuesday by referring to so called MAGA Republicans and declaring “We’ve gotta kill and confront that movement.”

Appearing on MSNBC, Ryan stated that America needs to “move out of this age of stupidity” and into an “age of reconciliation and reform.”

“How do we fix all of these broken systems?” Ryan posited, adding “Some of those answers will come from Republicans. Not the extremists that we’re dealing with every single day. We’ve gotta kill and confront that movement.”

Watch:

Even if you accept that he’s speaking figuratively, that’s an extremely poor choice of words in light of Biden repeatedly declaring half the country as ‘extremists’.

Ryan’s comments come after Hillary Clinton compared “MAGA Americans” to Al Qaeda, on the anniversary of 9/11:

As we highlighted last week, a Trafalgar Group poll found that a majority believe that Biden’s ‘battle for the soul of the nation’ speech, during which he was bathed in blood red light and flanked by marines, was purposefully designed to “incite conflict.”

Now a new survey by the group has found that more than 58 percent of voters believe Biden has further divided the country, with just one in five saying he has provided any unification.

A further poll by conducted by I&I/TIPP has found that almost two-thirds of Americans, 62 percent, agree that the White House’s attacks on “MAGA Republicans” has increased division in the country, with even a whopping 73 percent of Democrats agreeing.

In fact, the poll found that more Democrats agreed with the statement than Republicans!

END

EXPLOSIVE Investigation Reveals Federal Fraud In Voting Systems And Dominion — Complaint Filed With The GA State Board Of Elections – enVolve

Inbox

Robert Hryniak4:16 PM (0 minutes ago)
to

It was wide spread in 2020 and will be so in the mid terms. Although rumor is it will be put off.
https://en-volve.com/2022/09/14/explosive-investigation-reveals-federal-fraud-in-voting-systems-and-dominion-complaint-filed-with-the-ga-state-board-of-elections/

END

THE KING REPORT

The King Report September 14, 2022 Issue 6843Independent View of the News
 Tuesday’s King Report: A big part of the late rally on Monday occurred on the expectation that August CPI will show a modest decline and traders will incontinently buy stocks on the delusion that the Fed will not hike rates to 4% by 2023 due to two benign CPI reports… Pro Tip:  Though the guppies, media, and shills will focus on the headline CPI number, wiser guys will heed the Core CPI number because everyone knows gasoline and oil prices have declined substantially.  If non-energy inflation is more than expected, there could be fire in the hole.
 
August US CPI +0.1 m/m (-0.1% exp), 8.3% y/y (8.1% exp); Core CPI +0.6% m/m (0.3% exp), 6.3% y/y (5.9% exp)
 
Inflation: Grocery prices in August rise 13.5%, the highest increase since March 1979
On a 12-month basis, cereal and bakery products led the spike with an increase of 16.4%, higher than year-over-year in July — with flour and prepared flour mixes also higher, up 23.3%.  The leap was followed by the other food at-home categories, including dairy and related products, up 16.2%, with milk specifically up 17.0%, which is up 0.2% on monthly basis. Meanwhile, the meats, poultry fish and eggs category is up 10.6%, largely in part due to the price of eggs, up 39.8%, up 2.9% compared to last month… (Rents jumped 0.8% m/m and 6.7% y/y.) https://t.co/qrj7IBqFph
 
@johnauthers: This chart from @TheTerminal shows why this CPI number is so disappointing. The contribution of energy has declined, as expected; but services inflation is now rising sharply. Not what the FOMC will have wanted to see.  https://twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1569669120714543105
 
The odds of a 100bp rate hike at the September 21 FOMC Meeting peaked at 48% (0% on Monday).
 
@zerohedge: Shelter inflation just hit 6.24% Y/Y, surpassing the previous high from Aug 1990 of 6.1%
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1569668568186241024
 
Most people realize that the BLS’s tabulation of ‘shelter’ inflation is a multiple below reality.
 
As we warned, the usual suspects misguided thought the sharp decline in energy prices would offset inflation in food and services, which are escalating due to worker shortages.  Many Masters of the Universe apparently did NOT know that ‘Energy’ is only 8.782% of CPI.  ‘Food’ is 13.527% of CPI.  ‘Services less energy services’ is 56.523% of CPI.   Commodities less food and energy commodities’ is 21.168% of CPI.  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
 
@Stephanie_Link: As I discussed on @HalftimeReport today much of the sticky parts of inflation accelerated y/y in the Aug CPI:  shelter, food, medical costs, education and yes – used car prices. If gasoline wasn’t down 10% m/m the number would have been worse. Higher rates for longer.
 
@nytimesbusiness: One reason to worry that inflation won’t abate anytime soon: rapidly rising rents.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/13/business/inflation-cpi-report
 
As housing sales decline on ‘unaffordability’ rents escalate on demand for apartments/rentals.
WSJ Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos: The acceleration in inflation last month clinches the case for the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates by at least 0.75 percentage point at its meeting next week and raises the prospect of hefty increases continuing in coming months
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-report-keeps-fed-on-aggressive-rate-rise-path-11663090209
 
The odds of a 75bp rate hike on November 2, just 5 days before the Midterms, rose to 67%.
 
@zerohedge: Inflation-adjusted earnings have been negative during 90% of Biden’s presidency.  Real earnings are now down for 17 consecutive months: the longest stretch on record, surpassing the global financial crisishttps://t.co/n6xDRjxUBR
 
@charliebilello: All of the US wage growth since the start of the borrowing/printing binge has been a mirage, up 13% in nominal terms but down 1% after adjusting for higher prices. Initially, everyone loves “free money.” It’s only w/ the passage of time that the ravages of inflation are revealed.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1569712387967651840
 
Wrong-Footed Traders Confront Prospect of Even Bigger Fed Hike – BBG 10:28 ET
 
Crop Prices Touch Two-Month High as Food Supply Concerns Mount – BBG 12:00 ET
A US crop report Monday showed a surprisingly large cut in the country’s soybean stockpiles… Drought also is sinking the French corn harvest to its smallest in three decade and has curbed sugar supplies from South America… Indian curbs on rice exports have raised concerns about an increase in global prices for that grain, which is a staple food for half the world…
 
Statement of President Joe Biden on Consumer Price Index in September
Today’s data show more progress in bringing global inflation down in the US economy.  Overall, prices have been essentially flat in our country these last two months: that is welcome news for American families, with more work still to do.  Gas prices are down an average of $1.30 a gallon since the beginning of the summer.  This month, we saw some price increases slow from the month before at the grocery store.  And real wages went up again for a second month in a row, giving hard-working families a little breathing room.
     It will take more time and resolve to bring inflation down, which is why we passed the Inflation Reduction Act to lower the cost of healthcare, prescription drugs and energy. And my economic plan is showing that, as we bring prices down, we are creating good paying jobs and bringing manufacturing back to America.   https://t.co/7Zvsg4MqL3
 
Unfortunately for The Big Guy, his handlers, and the regime media, Americans vote their checkbooks.  Wall Street will trade on bogus government economic statistics; so, they are susceptible to Team Biden’s risible gaslighting.  Flyover America won’t accept the gaslighting and might be offended by it.
 
The WH scheduled The Big Guy to host a celebration event for the risibly named ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ at 15:00 ET Tuesday on the expectations of a Biden-friendly August CPI Report.
 
Biden celebrates ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ as food, rent prices climb http://reut.rs/3BDpxYV
 
Pelosi, in a futile gaslighting bid, absurdly stated the ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ is “beautifully named.”
 
@_WilliamsonBen: Quite a split screen… Biden congratulating himself on the issue of inflation as the market tanks 1300 points partly due to today’s terrible inflation numbers
https://twitter.com/_WilliamsonBen/status/1569777203579060225
 
@greg_price11: Biden (angrily again): “I don’t want to hear any more about big spending Democrats. We spend but we pay.”   https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1569778613955747840
 
Critics slam President Biden for ‘celebrating’ signing of Inflation Reduction Act: ‘Slap in the face’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/critics-slam-president-biden-celebrating-signing-inflation-reduction-act
 
ESZs hit the daily high of 4175.00 at 8:38 ET, just two minutes before the release on the US August CPI Report, on incontinent buying for an expected good CPI report.  ESZs hit 3995.75 at 11:58 ET.  The usual suspects then pushed ESZs back above 4000 to prevent more momentum selling.  After a modest Noon Balloon, ESZs and stocks meandered slightly higher.  The rally peaked at 13:30 ET. 
 
ESZs and stocks then sank to new daily lows.  ESZs and stocks bottomed at 15:48 ET.
 
USZs soared to 133 10/32 at 8:21 ET.  They plunged to 131 4/32 by 9:20 ET; but bounced to 131 25/32 when stocks tumbled.  They then rolled over and traded sideways from 9:45 ET until they soared after the 30-year bond auction went well.  US 30Y Bonds Draw 3.511% vs 3.530% WI – BBG 13:02 ET
 
The bond market rally ended at 13:11 ET.  It was largely a post-auction markup from dealers.  USZs topped at 132 6/32 and then sank to 131 14/32 at 14:00 ET.
 
@amlivemon: 30 year auction went great…. European buyers…. European Life Insurers mainly
 
@OccupytheFeds: Everyone is watching CPI. But remember this: the Fed has *$0* to “reinvest” in notes/coupons through October.  After ugly 3-yr & 10-yr auctions yesterday and a 30-yr auction today, another 15 auctions are still scheduled that should have ZERO Fed bids!
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TentativeAuctionScheduleQ32022.pdf
 
After hitting a low of 85.06 at 13:18 ET, WTI Oil spiked to 87.43 on a report that Biden intends to refill the SPR by purchasing oil at $80.
 
Goldman’s Credit-Card Losses Are Soaring – “Well above Subprime Lenders”
Goldman’s credit card business, anchored by the Apple Card since 2019, has arguably been the company’s biggest success yet in terms of gaining retail lending scale, but rising losses threaten to mar that picture… JPMorgan… points out that while competitors like Bank of America enjoy repayment rates at or near record levels, Goldman’s loss rate on credit card loans hit 2.93% in the second quarter… https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/goldmans-credit-card-losses-are-soaring-well-above-subprime-lenders
 
WaPo’s @LaurenKGurley: UPDATE on railroad strike: the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen rejected a tentative agreement with rail carriers.  This means 3 of 12 national railroad unions could strike on at 12:01 am on Friday—shutting down much of the country’s transportation infrastructure.
https://twitter.com/LaurenKGurley/status/1569753411523952641/photo/1
 
A rail workers’ strike will greatly exacerbate supply chain issues and create more inflation.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
The attempt to inflate equities was halted by stark inflation reality
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Equities tumbled; bonds declined sharply; the dollar soared
S&P 500 sank 4.32%, biggest tumble since June 11, 2020
The US 2-year yield hit 3.775%
Fangs got crushed (-6.6% at low) because traders poured into them for CPI and the expiry manipulation
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How low will stocks go?  How high will the Fed go?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3963.70
Previous session High/Low4037.12; 3921.28
 
FDA Refuses to Provide Key COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Analyses… claiming that the factual findings cannot be separated by internal discussions protected by law…
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/da-refuses-provide-key-covid-19-vaccine-safety-analyses
 
@Adam_Creighton: That the new Covid booster was tested only on mice really should be a bigger story
 
@disclosetv: JUST IN – Joe and Jill Biden leave the White House to spend an hour in Delaware today, then returning to DC again.  The trip is sudden and unplanned.  Biden tells an ABC pool reporter that he will vote in the Delaware primary. Did not answer why he did not vote by absentee ballot.
 
Today –If August PPI is worse than expected the odds of a 100bp Fed rate hike will escalate.  PS – There is only one CPI report (Sept CPI due 10/13) that will appear before the November 8 Midterm Elections.
 
The equity carnage on Tuesday usurped the designs of the usual suspects that were playing for the expiry manipulation for the September options and futures’ expiration on Friday.
 
Today is Weird Wednesday, which normally marks the peak expiry manipulation.  SPY September option volumes were soft on Tuesday.  Today should be ‘moving day’, to coopt a golf tournament term, for SPY options. With CPI and PPI out of the way, major players should make their moves for expiration.
 
The risk is high that further downward pressure could ‘gamma to death’ traders that are short OTM (out of the money) September puts that go into the money.  This would create an increasing amount of selling as traders are forced to hedge long positions as August put strikes keep going into the money.
 
ESZs are +8.00 at 20:00 ET on technical buying and another Japanese threats of yen intervention.  Japan FX chief Kanda: We are monitoring FX moves in Japan with urgency; concerned about recent sudden  FX moves; won’t rule out any options in FX responses
 
Expected economic data: Aug PPI -0.1% m/m, 8.8% y/y; Core PPI +0.3% m/m, 7.0% y/y
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4039; 100-day MA: 4022; 150-day MA: 4153; 200-day MA: 4269
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,195; 100-day MA: 32,195; 150-day MA: 33,896; 200-day MA: 33,542
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4800.68 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3877.02 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3919.52 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4049.98 triggers a buy signal
 
“This Is a Full-Blown Political Purge”: Tucker Carlson Obtains DOJ Subpoenas Targeting Trump Allies – This show has obtained a subpoena from Merrick Garland’s DOJ issued in the past week and what it demands is both unlawful and without precedent in American history. The subpoena claims to be investigating, “any claim that the vice president and/or president of the Senate had the authority to reject or choose not to count presidential electors.”
    Now keep in mind that any claim you make as an American citizen about electors, any claim you make about American politics, period, is protected explicitly under the First Amendment. That’s our core freedom. It’s why we live here. It’s why we’re proud to be Americans. It’s why so many American servicemen died protecting our country. Those are the freedoms that they fought to preserve. That’s why nobody prosecuted leading Democrats in 2016 when they sought to reject electors for Donald Trump. Right. It’s why none of those people, including Kamala Harris, is now in jail.
    But right now, according to the subpoena that we have obtained, Merrick Garland’s DOJ is demanding all communication from the following people on this topic and let’s be clear before we read their names, that it is not clear what the investigation is about and that’s the most terrifying part
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/full-blown-political-purge-tucker-carlson-obtains-doj-subpoenas-targeting-trump-allies
 
@mrddmia: WOW! What (pre-textual) predicate crime is the Biden Justice Department using to hunt down and punish their boss’s (Biden’s) political enemies? It’s only a “crime” to question the outcome of elections in third-world Marxist hellholes.  This is a clear First Amendment violation.
 
@julie_kelly2: The only thing more galling than the brazenness of the regime’s dragnet for Trump and his supporters is the cowardice of the GOP. No plan, no backbone, absolutely no game whatsoever.
 
@mkolken: Senate Republicans want to remain in the minority. There is no other explanation for their stupidity.
 
@Techno_Fog: The FBI caught Steele primary subsource Igor Danchenko in a number of lies. What did the FBI do in response? It signed Danchenko up as a paid FBI confidential human source.  The purpose should be quite clear – The FBI buries Danchenko from inquiry by making him a CHS. In doing so, the FBI prevents discovery of its own misconduct.  Utterly corrupt and self-serving. Durham’s latest:
 
Durham shocker: Danchenko was a paid FBI informant 
What is Durham’s theory on Danchenko’s motive for lying about the Ritz-Carlton allegations? Because it reflects “a deliberate effort to conceal from the FBI Charles Dolan’s role as a source for the Steele Reports and to deceive the FBI regarding Millian’s role (or lack thereof).”…
https://technofog.substack.com/p/durham-shocker-danchenko-was-a-paid
 
New Durham bombshell: FBI paid Russian accused of lying as a confidential informant against Trump – Prosecutor says Igor Danchenko was paid by FBI as confidential human source for three years despite prior concerns he was tied to Russian intelligence services.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/new-durham-bombshell-fbi-paid-russian-accused-lying
 
DOJ Refuses to Release Biden Administration Plan to Intervene in 2022 Election https://t.co/rQLQPYpjtk
President Joe Biden issued an executive order on “access to voting” on Sunday that instructs federal government agencies to promote voter registration, help Americans apply to vote by mail, and “combat misinformation,” among other measures. The “Executive Order on Promoting Access to Voting” reads like a Democratic Party wish-list of “reforms” that enshrines many of the practices that were adopted on a temporary basis during the pandemic-affected 2020 election. Its provisions include:using federal agencies to promote voter registration;using federal agencies to inform Americans about voting;linking federal agency websites to state voter registration websites;providing voter registration and vote-by-mail applications;using “approved, nonpartisan third-party organizations” to register voters at federal agencies;using identification documents issued by the agency to help people register to vote;providing more multilingual services to potential voters;giving public employees “time off to vote in Federal, State, local, Tribal, and territorial elections”; and promoting voter registration for federal prisoners…  https://t.co/rQLQPYpjtk 
Stamford Democratic Chief Found Guilty of 28 Felonies in Ballot Fraud Case
https://ctexaminer.com/2022/09/12/stamford-democratic-chief-found-guilty-of-28-felonies-in-ballot-fraud-case/
 
Biden spokesman dismisses US land grab by Chinese as a ‘home ownership issue’ https://trib.al/gnWpBLP
 
Democrat-led El Paso approves $2 million contract to send more migrant buses across the country https://t.co/RKLxMzouLp
 
NYT: Senate to Investigate Charge That Trump Meddled in Prosecutor’s Office – The allegations of political motivation are in a new book by the former U.S. attorney in Manhattan, Geoffrey S. Berman.
    The allegations are in a new book by Geoffrey S. Berman, who was U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York from 2018 through June 2020, when he was fired by Mr. Trump… Mr. Berman’s book portrays Trump Justice Department officials as motivated by partisan concerns as they tried to initiate criminal investigations or block them, The Times reported…. He (Dem Sen Durbin) added that the allegations “also compound the already serious concerns” raised by then-Attorney General William P. Barr’s efforts in 2020 “to replace Mr. Berman with a Trump loyalist.”  Mr. Berman’s dismissal came after he refused Mr. Barr’s request to resign. Mr. Barr had sought to replace him with an ally of the administration…  https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/nyregion/geoffrey-berman-trump-justice-department.html
 
@julie_kelly2: So now we know what Barr’s groveling to DOJ and Democrats is all about: hoping to save himself from a Senate investigation into his efforts to remove US Atty SDNY
 
Why Gen. Mark Milley should be court-martialed
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, should be subject to an Article 32 Hearing under the provisions of the Uniform Code of Military Justice for his conduct and statements as memorialized in the Bob Woodward book “Peril,” and the Aug. 8, 2022, New Yorker magazine excerpt of a forthcoming book by Susan B. Glasser and Peter Baker…
     Gen. Milley called his communist Chinese military counterpart in October 2020 and January 2021 with unauthorized promises and assurances of advanced warnings of U.S. military intentions and actions… Mr. Woodward and Mr. Costa “obtained” a copy of a call transcript between Gen. Milley and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi concerning Mr. Trump and nuclear weapons. The book provides detailed quotes from both Gen. Milley and Mrs. Pelosi… Gen. Milley must be held to account for his conduct and selectively leaked statements. His conduct goes far beyond the controversy of the Mitchell court-martial. https://t.co/T25LB920B9
 
Babylon Bee: Trump Voters Put Biden Signs in Their Yards So That the FBI Will Pass over Them
“If we make it look like we’re devoted Biden followers, maybe the regime will have mercy on us and we’ll be spared.”…  https://babylonbee.com/news/trump-voters-put-biden-signs-in-their-yards-so-that-the-fbi-will-pass-over-them
 
Democrats outpacing Republicans by tens of thousands of absentee ballot requests in key midterm state   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrats-outpacing-republicans-tens-of-thousands-absentee-ballot-requests-key-midterm-state
 
@JGuehenno: American officials give credit to Ukraine for its recent successes, but can’t resist leaking how involved they have been in the planning… Not wise. The less they talk the better.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/us/politics/ukraine-russia-pentagon.html
 

 

Greg Hunter..interviewing Alex Newman

Deep State Naked Running Through Streets – Alex Newman

By Greg Hunter On September 13, 2022 In Political AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchddog.com

Award-winning journalist Alex Newman, author of the popular books “Deep State” and “Crimes of the Educators,” says Deep State globalists are not happy with the progress of the “controlled demolition of all western societies.”  They want their so-called “Great Reset,” but people are waking up at such a fast pace their propaganda is not working.  Newman explains, “Censorship is the move that these Deep State people are making.  They want to silence all dissent, all criticism, except dissent and criticism that furthers their narrative that furthers inflaming the division and furthers the civil war narrative.  This is very, very dangerous.  As my friend, Patrick Wood, the founder of “Citizens for Free Speech,” says, when they are able to silence our free speech, that’s when the killing starts.  So, we should be very, very concerned about this.”

Are the Deep State’s destructive plans going all that well?  Newman says, “They are in this do or die moment, and we have been here a little while. . . . We are at the stage now where the agenda is out in the open.  A few years ago, when we were saying they were going to be doing these things, we were called conspiracy theorists and extremists and whatever.  Now, they are actually doing those things, and now they are saying it is dangerous and extreme not to approve of these things.  So, now if you don’t agree with the ‘Great Reset’ or the Green New Deal or the Biden regime, they say you are dangerous.  I think we are in the phase right now where they are basically running naked through the streets.  Everybody can see them.  So, it’s a very risky time for them.  It’s a do or die moment for them if enough people wake up.  If you look at the trend line . . . people are waking up so rapidly that if this continues, they are going to be in major trouble.  That’s why we are seeing the clampdown on free speech. . . . The war on free speech shows how successful we have been and how unsuccessful they have been.  If their propaganda was effective and they thought lying to us through CNN, NBC and ABC was good enough, they would not be worried about what people were saying on Facebook.  They would not be worrying about what you were Tweeting out to your 10,000 or 30,000 followers.  They would be confident and relaxed, and they would really not be all that concerned.  The fact they are whipping themselves into a frenzy about all this ‘misinformation’ online shows you they are very,
very concerned about the collapse of their narrative.  You point out the real approval rate for Biden is 11% or 12%, and they recognize their agenda is not popular. . . . They realize people don’t like this, and if people realize they are not the only ones that don’t like this and everyone does not like this, then they are in very big trouble.”

Newman says we are “fighting demonic spirits and not simply flesh and blood” as it says in the Bible.  Newman contends one of the biggest failing narratives of the Deep State are the people who got the CV19 shots and are sick or dead.  Newman says, “I think the truth on this is going to come out, and I think this is another reason we are in such a dangerous time. . . . A lot of the people who lined up and got their shots are madder than a wet hen right now.  They are wondering who is responsible for this? . . . This is a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions, and that is what the data is showing now.  We are seeing excess mortality numbers that are unprecedented.  Nothing in human history has resulted in things like this.  Millions of people are dying, and millions of people are being debilitated by this around the world and especially around the Western world.  We are seeing massive numbers of infertility and miscarriages, and I think the worst is yet to come.”

There is much more in the 46 min. video interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with hard hitting journalist Alex Newman, founder of LibertySentinel.org and author of the recent book “Deep State.”

(https://usawatchdog.com/deep-state-naked-running-through-streets-alex-newman/)

After the Interview: 

For a copy of Alex Newman’s popular book “Deep State” click here.

See you tommorow

Harvey

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