OCT 21//GOLD REVERSES COURSE RISING $19.10 UP TO $1651.50//SILVER UP 43 CENTS TO $19.17//PLATINUM CLOSES UP $17.90 TO $934.60//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $45.07 TO $2018.25//JAPAN CENTRAL BANK CAPITULATES AND INTERVENES TO STOP THE FALL IN THE YEN//A MUST READ: ALASDAIR MACLEOD ON THE LAST STAND FOR FREE MARKETS//YIELDS ON USA 10 YR BOND RISES TO ABOVE 4.33%//UK 10 YEAR GILT RISES TO 4.06%//TURMOIL IN ALL MARKETS FORCES JAPANESE/USA FOR INTERVENTION//PEPE ESCOBAR ON DISCUSSION OF CHINA’S NEW PLENARY AND WATCH FOR CHINA’S ATTACK ON TAIWAN FOR THEIR SEMI CONDUCTORS//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//UPDATES ON THE UK FIASCO AND A MUST SEE VIDEO//STOCK MARKETS RISE ON WHISPERER STATING A POSSIBLE USA PAUSE IN INTEREST RATE HIKES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
323 C HSBC 381 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 309 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 13 661 C JP MORGAN 399 255 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1 880 H CITIGROUP 43 905 C ADM 15
TOTAL: 708 708 MONTH TO DATE: 23,158
JPMORGAN STOPPED 255/708
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT CONTRACT: 708 NOTICES FOR 70,800 OZ or 2.2021 TONNES
total notices so far: 23,158 contracts for 2,215,800 oz (72.0311 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 12 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 60,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 444 : for 2,220,000 oz
END
Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX
With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $19.10
WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):
GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE
ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 43 CENTS
AT THE SLV// :/BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 486.163 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 657 CONTRACTS TO 137,426 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GOOD GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.33 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.33)., AND UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGE OF 1014 CONTRACTS. HUGE NUMBERS OF SPECS CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR SHORTFALLS FROM WHICH OUR BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SOME SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS
WE MUST HAVE HAD: I) ZERO SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS BUT CONSIDERABLE SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWING AN 85,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP / // V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: –32
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 17 days, total 55,540 contracts: 27.770 million oz OR 1.633MILLION OZ PER DAY. (326 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 27.770 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 27.770 MILLION OZ INITIAL
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 657 WITH OUR $0.33 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 325 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT. OF 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 85,000 QUEUE JUMP .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1014 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.070 MILLION OZ..
WE HAD 12 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 60,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 893 CONTRACTS TO 444,335 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -236 CONTRACTS.
.
THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.40//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY // CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND STRONG SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS // CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.
WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 27,500 OZ//NEW STANDING 73.188TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.40 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2,502 OI CONTRACTS 7.782 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1609 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 444,047
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2,214 CONTRACTS WITH 697 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1609 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2502 CONTRACTS OR 7.782 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1609) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (605): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2,214 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// MORE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS// SMALL NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 27,500 OZ QUEUE. JUMP ///NEW STANDING 73.188 TONNES//. 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT. :
40,566 CONTRACTS OR 4,056,600 OZ OR 126.17 TONNES 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2386 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 126.17 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 126.17/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.54% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 126.17 TONNES INITIAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 605 CONTRACT OI TO 137,426 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 325 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 325 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 325 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 657 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 325 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 982 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.910 MILLION OZ//
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold commentaries
A MUST MUST VIEW
Ep. 96 Live from the Vault
Sinister footprints in Silver to cover SLV shorts
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andy Maguire takes another deep dive into the smoke and mirror world of COMEX, examining the uncanny resemblance of the current market structure to the 2008 financial crisis-triggered bullish setup.
The London wholesaler explains how the extremely supply-tight physical market draining COMEX liquidity to unsustainable levels can ultimately result in gold and silver arising as safe-haven assets.
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3,88 PTS OR 0.13% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 69.10 OR 0.42% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 116.38PTS OR 0.43% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.71% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7.2464 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.2682// /Oil DOWN TO 84,96 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.69 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 605 CONTRACTS TO 444,047 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS SMALL COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $2.40 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1609 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.
WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1609EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC : 1609 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1609 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 2214 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4273LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 8516 CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $2.40//WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS, WITH BANKERS AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS. WE ALSO HAD SOME ADDITIONAL NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG WITH OUR NEW ATTRACTIVE LOW PRICE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING OCT (73.188),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 73.188 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $2.40) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS SPEC SHORT ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2,502 CONTRACTS // WE HAVE REGISTERED A FAIR GAIN OF 7.782 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (73.188 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $2.40
WE HAD -236 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2502 CONTRACTS OR 250,200 OZ OR 7.782 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
23,158 notices 2,315,800 72.0311 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
total dealer deposit 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 2
i)Into Brinks: 96.453 oz
ii) Into HSBC: 13,837.922 oz
total deposits 13,934.425 oz
customer withdrawals:2
i) Out of Manfra: 385.812 oz 12 kilobars
ii) Out of Brinks 64.30 oz (2 kilobars)
total: 450.12 oz
total in tonnes: 0.0139 tonnes
Adjustments: 3// dealer to customer
i)Manfra: 6,036.997 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 9,163.035 oz
iii) Out of JPMorgan: 55,460.403 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCT we have an oi of 1080 contracts having GAINED 100 contracts . We had 175 contracts
filed on THURSDAY, so we GAINED A STRONG 275 contracts or an additional 27,500 oz will stand in this active delivery month of Oct. From this point
we should gain in total gold standing through to the end of Oct.( This is queue jumping and in reality it is the exercising of London based EFP;s for gold at the comex)
November GAINED 66 contracts to stand at 3567 (WE ARE GOING TO HAVE AN EXTRAORDINARILY LARGE NOV.GOLD DELIVERY)
December LOST 2052 contracts up to 363,302
We had 708 notice(s) filed today for 70,800 oz FOR THE OCT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 399 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 708 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 255 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,158) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (OCT 1080 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 708 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,353,000 OZ OR 73.188 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:
No of notices filed so far (23,158) x 100 oz+ (1080) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (708} x 100 oz} which equals 2,353,000 oz standing OR 73.188 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of OCTOBER.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 73.188 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR OCT (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH)
WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.
SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 444 x 5,000 oz = 2,220,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(250) and the number of notices served upon today 12 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT./2022 contract month: 444 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (250) – number of notices served upon today (12) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates 3,410,000,000 oz. .
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES
OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES
OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES
SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES
SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES
SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES
SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 930.99 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///
OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//
OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//
OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//
Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ
OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/
OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617 MILLION OZ//
OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ
SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/
CLOSING INVENTORY 486.163 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1.PETER SCHIFF
END
2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz
LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Swiss gold exports stay high to China, India,Turkey.
Eastern flows dominate.
We always monitor the monthly Swiss customs data for gold imports and exports as they provide an excellent window on the directional global flows of gold bullion given the huge importance of the Swiss gold refineries in this traffic. For the month of September, these have just been released and show that in that month this small European nation, with no domestic gold production of its own, imported some 181 tonnes of gold of refined, semi-refined and scrap gold and exported 176.3 tonnes of ultra-refined gold bullion during the period.
As usual the gold flows were predominantly from gold producing nations and gold holding ones in the West to consuming and hoarding ones in the Middle East and Asia, which recipients are assumed to be stronger holders. Indeed in September 89.6% of Swiss gold exports were destined for these more easterly areas assuming one counts Turkey as a Middle Eastern nation.
A recent report on Bloomberg has highlighted this geographical transference of gold which has led to demand exceeding supply in some areas and price premiums appearing in some markets. Bloomberg comments that rising rates that may be currently making gold less attractive as an investment in the West mean that large volumes of metal are being drawn out of vaults in financial centres like New York and London and heading east to meet demand in Shanghai’s gold market or Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar and as a result, gold and silver are selling at unusually large premiums over the global benchmark price in some Asian markets in particular.
Bloomberg further reports that more than 500 tonnes of gold has poured out of New York and London vaults since the end of April, according to data from the CME Group and London Bullion Market Association. At the same time, shipments are rising into big Asian gold consumers like China, whose imports hit a four-year high in August.
China/Hong Kong continued to occupy top spot for the Swiss gold exports in receiving 45.1 tonnes, with by far the major part (44.5 tonnes) going directly to the Chinese mainland, thus diminishing the importance of Hong Kong even further as a conduit for China’s gold imports. India, which took in 35.3 tonnes looked to be resuming its appetite for gold consumption, closely followed by Turkey which imported 32.2 tonnes. Other significant Middle Eastern and Asian nation recipients of the Swiss gold were Thailand (13.1 tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (11 tonnes), Singapore (9.1 tonnes) and Saudi Arabia (6.7 tonnes).
Swiss gold imports during September were mostly from gold mining nations where it tends to receive doré bullion direct from the mines for re-refining into the ultra high purity kilobars, wafers and coins most in demand on global markets. The refineries also receive larger bars from the major gold vaults in countries like the U.S. and the UK which hold high purity good delivery large gold bars, often on behalf of third party nations, which may need to dispose, or lease them in smaller sizes on global markets and they are geared up to accomplish this too. Historically the Swiss refineries have carved out a substantial business and reputation in this arena, and handle an amount equivalent to perhaps up to 60% of new mined gold annually so comprise an extremely significant part of the global gold market in terms of directional flow patterns.
21 Oct 2022
-END-
-END-
END
3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Your weekend reading material: the last stand for free markets
Alasdair Macleod…a must read!!
Alasdair Macleod: The last stand for free markets
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-10-20 11:29Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod GoldMoney, Toronto Thursday, October 20, 2022
The British government’s desperate dash toward free markets has failed, badly bungled. The establishment in Whitehall and Westminster is back and realigned with the international government consensus. The socialist wealth redistributors, the interventionists, and the anti-Brexit Remainers now formulate government policy. In Britain, free markets are dead.
Citizens of other Western nations should take note of these developments. The replacement of Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor of the exchequer by Jeremy Hunt, an establishment man and deemed to be a safe pair of hands, is set to guarantee the continuing authority of the state over its electors. The underlying problem — that the electorate can no longer afford its government — is lost in the noise.
We must abandon any hope of a reversal of rapacious government policies that continually strip electors of their freedom and personal wealth. With a rapidly approaching financial crisis, which is now widely expected, the UK government will double down on its anti-market, anti-sound money policies. We can expect more price subsidies and price controls — paid for, of course, by yet more currency debasement.
It’s not just the UK. All advanced economies are approaching an endpoint in their governments’ anti-market policies. The global status quo can now be challenged only by markets. Rising interest rates, driven by collapsing purchasing power of the major fiat currencies, are bringing on that challenge, triggering a global financial and currency crisis.
The destiny of financial markets is already becoming evident, with asset values in an intractable decline. The contraction of over-the-counter derivative markets is in its earliest stages, a factor of which the public is generally unaware, but will have enormous consequences. Bank credit for the non-financial sector is in the firing line as well, leading with certainty to a slump in global gross domestic product. And we can be sure that policymakers everywhere will do their utmost to rescue the failing system by new rounds of quantitative easing.
Welcome to an outlook dominated by the accumulated errors of the global establishment, all set to hit us at the same time. As for the return to free markets? Not until considerable volumes of political and intellectual water have flowed under the bridge. …
The Chinese citizens and Indian citizens certainly know the value of gold: Swiss imports of gold rise
Refiners are having great difficulty refining gold/silver due to high costs of electricity and natural gas
(Reuters)
Swiss gold exports to China and India rise as prices fall
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-10-20 09:18Section: Daily Dispatches
From Reuters Thursday, October 20, 2022
LONDON — Swiss gold exports to top markets China and India increased in September, while shipments to Turkey rose to the highest since April 2013, Swiss customs data showed on Thursday.
A decline in gold prices from more than $2,000 an ounce in March to around $1,650 has boosted demand for gold bars, coins and jewellery in Asia, where buyers typically take advantage of low prices.
Economic turbulence in Turkey has also encouraged buying of the metal, which is often seen by investors as a safe way to store more money….
Credit Suisse is in big trouble with their derivative trades. As they short the precious metals, they also borrow massive amounts of USA dollars and it is thses dollars that they are having trouble balancing. They need the Fed to bail them out:
(Bloomberg)
Swiss banks seek most dollars since 2008 in bid for easy profit
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-10-19 20:06Section: Daily Dispatches
Why is the Federal Reserve running a scheme to enrich Swiss banks?
* * *
By Bastian Benrath Bloomberg News Wednesday, October 19, 2022
Banks in Switzerland sought the most dollars since 2008 using an emergency dollar swap facility provided by the Federal Reserve in what is likely to be a bid for easy profits.
In today’s auction conducted by the Swiss National Bank, 17 institutions took up $11.09 billion. That’s the most since October 2008, when the Global Financial Crisis was raging in the wake of Lehman Brothers’ collapse.
This is the fourth week in a row when banks have accessed the facility. Last Wednesday 15 banks took up $6.27 billion in funds.
According to economists at Credit Suisse, Swiss banks swap the dollars into francs in order to generate a profit. The lenders can even sell the cash back to the Swiss National Bank using its reverse repo auctions, or deposit it at the institution to benefit from a positive interest rate.
“We do not believe that the increased demand for U.S. dollar liquidity by domestic banks reflects any liquidity issues in the Swiss banking system,” Credit Suisse economist Maxime Botteron wrote in a report last week. …
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andy Maguire takes another deep dive into the smoke and mirror world of COMEX, examining the uncanny resemblance of the current market structure to the 2008 financial crisis-triggered bullish setup.
The London wholesaler explains how the extremely supply-tight physical market draining COMEX liquidity to unsustainable levels can ultimately result in gold and silver arising as safe-haven assets.
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.2464
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.2682
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.88 PTS OR 0.13%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 69.10 OR 0.42%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 116.38 PTS OR 0.43%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 113.48/Euro FALLS TO 0.97488
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 151.52/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.4885%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.853%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.62%…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 5.064//
3j Gold at $1623.60//silver at: 18.38 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 38/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 61.02//
3m oil into the 84 dollar handle for WTI and 92 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 151.53DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 1.01149–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.98589well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.280% UP 5 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.299% UP 8 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,60…GETTTING DANGEROUS
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 4.124%
end
Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE
There is a huge shortage of dollars setting off a huge rise in the dollar and major falls in the Chinese yuan, the Japanese yen, Cdn dollar etc.
We now have a global currency crisis. The lower currency values in all countries cause inflation in their country to skyrocket. This must end
(zerohedge)
Futures Slide As Global Yields Soar, Pushing Bond Markets To Edge Of Breaking
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 08:02 AM
US equities extended their recent slump, set to trim their modest weekly advance even further as soaring bonds yields and poor earnings renewed the gloom that’s sent stocks into a bear market this year. Contracts on the S&P 500 dipped 0.4% at 7:30 a.m. ET, putting the underlying index on track to sharply pare this week’s 2.3% gain…
… as the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.29%, the highest since 2007 and as Treasuries dropped for a 12th consecutive week, which would match longest stretch since 1984. Fed swaps price in a 5% peak policy rate in 2023 after Philly Fed President Patrick Harker said that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates to “well above” 4% this year and hold them at restrictive levels to combat inflation,
“The global inflation bogeyman continues to scare the bond markets,” said strategists at Societe Generale SA including Ninon Bachet. “Central banks have additional big moves to make in their tightening process, so we remain short duration.”
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.9% after the tech-heavy gauge advanced 3.3% from Monday through Thursday. Surging yields also pushed the dollar sharply higher, with USDJPY soaring above 151.50 and the yuan falling to the weakest level since 2008.
At this point, absent a Fed short-circuit of the soaring dollar (in the form of a major liquidity injection), a global currency crisis is all but assured; one look at the latest record weekly usage in the SNB swap line with the Fed confirms without a doubt that there is now a global currency shortage which is becoming more systemic by the week if not day.
In premarket trading, Twitter shares tumbled, falling as much as 16% and well below Elon Musk’s offer price, on concern the deal may be terminated by the government. Earnings from appliance maker Whirlpool and social-media platform Snap disappointed investors after the market closed Thursday. Snap plunged 27% in premarket trading Friday after its slowest quarterly sales growth ever. This sets the stage for what investors can expect when bigger players like Alphabet and Meta Platforms report next week. Earlier this week, firms among AT&T as well as IBM had beaten expectations earlier this week. Here are some of the biggest US movers today:
Whirlpool shares drop 4% in US postmarket trading after the company cut its FY ongoing EPS guidance; shares of Swedish peer Electrolux also fall.
CSX gained 3% in premarket trading. It’s unchanged FY guidance comes as a relief after peer Union Pacific cut its forecast for volume growth, Morgan Stanley analysts write after the freight transportation firm reported 3Q earnings that beat estimates.
Opendoor Technologies slides 2.5% in premarket trading after Truist Securities cut the price target to $5 from $8 as the analyst trims their margin estimates for the real estate firm.
Autoliv shares rise as much as 5.9% in premarket trading after the firm said it expects to see full-year organic revenue growth of about 15%, higher than the 14.5% that analysts had been expecting.
Under Armour shares decline 3.2% in premarket trading after Telsey Advisory Group downgrades the sportswear brand to market perform from outperform, expecting high inventory rates from Nike and Adidas to weigh on FY23 and for the company to once again cut its 2022 outlook again when it reports on November 3.
Immunic shares sink 71% in premarket trading after interim analysis of the biopharma company’s Phase 1b clinical trial of IMU-935 patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis showed a placebo rate that Piper Sandler says was “surprisingly high.”
SVB Financial dropped 17% in premarket trading after lowering its full-year forecast for net interest income growth.
Tenet drops 18% in premarket trading after the health care company narrowed its operating revenue guidance to a level below Wall Street estimates.
As Bloomberg notes, the S&P 500 hasn’t been able to hold onto gains for more than a week since early August, a sign of persistent economic headwinds as the Federal Reserve continues raising interest rates. The earnings season will be key to dictating the direction of equities until the US central bank meets next month. Ironically, so far it is nowhere near as bad as some had suspected with 74% of companies have exceeded earnings expectations versus the long-term, prepandemic average of 72%, according to Bloomberg analysts Gina Martin Adams and Gillian Wolff.
“History tells us that markets don’t find a bottom until investors begin to anticipate rate cuts, leading indicators point to better growth, or valuations price a bear case scenario. That’s not the case today,” UBS Global Wealth Management strategists led by Mark Haefele wrote in a note. “Equity valuations, despite falling in absolute terms, don’t yet fully discount a bear case.”
Investor sentiment has turned deeply pessimistic but that’s not yet being reflected in equity flows and “final capitulation” remains elusive, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp. US funds had a second straight week of inflows at $12 billion in the week through Oct. 19, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data.
European stocks fell amid the broader risk-off mood. Euro Stoxx 50 slumps 1.6% as retailers, consumer products and construction are the worst-performing sectors as all industry groups in Europe fall. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
L’Oreal’s 3Q sales showed “hairline fractures appearing,” according to Morgan Stanley, with volumes sequentially softening, pockets of weaker demand and changing consumer behavior. The stock fell as much as 5.5%, biggest intraday drop in more than two years.
Adidas shares plunge as much as 10%, the most since March 7, after the German sportswear maker cut its outlook for the year flagging slowing demand, partly due to a weakening in footfall in China, and also because of inventory build-up, providing further warning about the consumer slowdown.
Sika shares drop as much as 5.1% despite maintaining its FY guidance, as Jefferies says a third-quarter Ebit miss may trigger mild downgrades.
Telia shares fall as muchy as 8.9% to their lowest level since 2003, as a steep increase in energy costs prompts a cut to its profit outlook, with operational free cash flow for 2022 set to be below the minimum dividend level.
PostNL declines as much as 12%, the most since May 9, after the Dutch mail carrier withdrew its FY guidance, citing rising inflation and a drop in consumer confidence which has led to 3Q under performance, particularly in parcel delivery.
Grifols shares dropped as much as 8.8% to their lowest level in 10 years following a media report that it could face legal claims in the US for as much as $270m. Banco Santander notes potential fine size could represent about 1% to 4% of plasma firm’s market cap.
Deliveroo shares rise as much as 6.2%. The food delivery firm lifted its adjusted Ebitda margin guidance for the year, making progress on plans to improve profitability amid slowing growth.
Borregaard shares climb as much as 3.7% after the specialized biochemicals supplier reports 3Q results that may push earnings per share estimates for 2023 and 2024 higher by 2%-3%, DNB analyst says in note.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, set to cap a second week of declines, as recession worries weighed on sentiment amid hawkish central-bank remarks and stringent China Covid restrictions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.2% Friday, with most of the markets in the region marking losses. The Hong Kong benchmark hit its lowest since April 2009, while gauges in Singapore and the Philippines declined more than 1%. China’s pandemic rules continued to weigh on regional investor sentiment amid additional lockdowns. Risk sentiment was also hurt by higher Treasury yields after a Federal Reserve official said he expects interest rates to be “well above” 4% this year.
“I think the risks for recession in the region are pretty high,” David Chao, Asia Pacific market strategist at Invesco, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Still, Chao believes Asia Pacific is “relatively more attractive” than Europe and the US as the region is somewhat insulated from high levels of inflation and central bank tightening. Traders will be on the watch for earnings reports in the coming days to understand the impact of high inflation and China’s virus restrictions on corporate health and growth. Down about 30% this year, the key Asian stock gauge is trading near its lowest level since April 2020.
Japanese stocks fell, as losses in chemical makers and railways offset gains in electronics makers. Japan’s core inflation reached 3% for the first time in over three decades excluding tax-hike impacts. The Topix fell 0.7% to close at 1,881.98, while the Nikkei declined 0.4% to 26,890.58. The yen slightly extended its loss after falling through 150 per dollar Thursday. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 1.5%. Out of 2,166 stocks in the index, 442 rose and 1,626 fell, while 98 were unchanged
Australian stocks also slid as banks, property shares weigh; the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.8% to close at 6,676.80, with banks and real estate stocks leading the declines. All sectors slumped except for energy as oil gained. The benchmark notched a second week of declines, down 1.2%. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 10,782.36.
India stocks posted their biggest weekly gain since July as investor sentiment was buoyant ahead of a key festival next week while corporate earnings season gathers steam. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.2% to 59,307.15 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index was little changed. Both the gauges rose at least 2.3% this week. All but three of BSE Ltd.’s 19 sector sub-indexes declined, led by capital goods companies. For the week, banking stocks were the best performers, thanks to strong earnings performances by top lenders including HDFC Bank. After a stronger-than-expected quarterly performances by technology and banking companies, earnings were starting to reflect worries over elevated costs. Of 17 Nifty 50 Index firms, which have posted results so far, 11 have either met or surpassed the consensus view while five have missed.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index roared higher after whipsawing in early European hours; the greenback rose against all its Group-of-10 peers. Long-dated Treasuries fell, driving the 10-year benchmark yield to a 15-year high, as traders bet the Federal Reserve will press ahead with rate hikes to defeat inflation.
The euro reversed an early European session gain and bonds from the region fell across the board. Germany’s 10-year yield climbed above 2.5% for first time since 2011.
The pound fell against all of its G-10 peers and tumbled as much as 1.2%, while gilts sold off as markets entered another bout of uncertainty amid a truncated leadership contest following the resignation of Liz Truss. The next leader could be decided as soon as Monday. The UK budget deficit in September exceeded estimates
The yen fell beyond 151 per dollar as the disparity between US and Japanese yields continued to grow, putting the currency on track for a 10th straight weekly loss. The relative premium to own exposure in short-term dollar-yen options rose to levels not seen for more than six years due to the risk of intervention as realized volatility remains in defensive mode. The Bank of Japan will keep conducting monetary easing to support the economy and sustainably and stably achieve its price target accompanied by wage growth, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in a speech in Tokyo. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters that Japan is firmly confronting forex speculators in the market now.
The onshore yuan fell to the weakest level since 2008 as the greenback surged on hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official.
In rates, Treasuries dropped for 12th week, which would match longest stretch in 38 years. BOJ boosted bond purchases to hold 10-year yield at 0.25% ceiling, while Australian bonds drop. Longer-dated Treasuries extended Thursday’s declines, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by at least 4bp into early US session. Bigger bear-steepening move grips German curve as 10-year yields top 2.5% for first time since 2011. US yields were cheaper by nearly 7bp across long-end of the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads steeper by about 4.5bp and 6.5bp on the day. German long-end yields are cheaper by 11.5bp on the day while Gilts 10-year yield rose 8bps, trading around 4% as traders add BOE and ECB rate-hike premium.
In commodities, WTI drifts 1.6% lower to trade near $83.19, but off lows amid the firmer Dollar and deterioration of broader risk sentiment. Saudi and China are said to be ready to cooperate oil market stability; Saudi remains the most trusted China oil supplier, according to a joint statement cited by Bloomberg. LME metals are lower across the board with 3M copper also weighed on by the risk mood – the red metal trades on either side of USD 7,500/t. Spot gold posts modest losses and remains under USD 1,650/oz after dipping below yesterday’s lows.
Bitcoin is under pressure and has lost the USD 19k handle and lies at the lower-end of a circa USD 700 range for the session.
Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include UK retail sales for September and the US Monthly budget statement. From central banks, we’ll hear from New York Fed President Williams. Finally, earnings releases include Verizon Communications and American Express.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 3,653.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 393.11
MXAP down 1.1% to 135.34
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 438.50
Nikkei down 0.4% to 26,890.58
Topix down 0.7% to 1,881.98
Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 16,211.12
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,038.93
Sensex up 0.2% to 59,347.19
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 6,676.76
Kospi down 0.2% to 2,213.12
German 10Y yield up 3.7% at 2.49%
Euro down 0.2% at $0.9758
Brent Futures down 1% to $91.45/bbl
Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,621.21
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.42% to 113.357
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Giorgia Meloni clinched a mandate from her coalition on the path to becoming Italy’s first female premier, after weeks of political stasis following her right-wing alliance’s election win
The UK Treasury may be forced to delay its long-awaited Oct. 31 fiscal plan because of the resignation of Prime Minister Liz Truss, adding a layer of political risk to an event that had become crucial for markets and the Bank of England
The Conservative Party is desperate to draw a line under Truss’s disastrous premiership, with a rapid leadership contest aimed at trying to give the winner a shot at overturning an unprecedented deficit in the polls
Regardless of who wins the race to succeed Truss as UK Prime Minister, one thing is clear: the pound is set to keep falling. That’s the prognosis of market players who see sterling continuing its descent as economic headwinds and the Bank of England’s policy stance act as a drag
Traders in UK government bonds helped topple Truss. Now they’re setting their sights on the next goal: ensuring her successor will stick to the fiscal discipline required to shore up the country’s fragile finances
UK retail sales fell more than expected last month after the death of Queen Elizabeth II curtailed activity and cost-of- living pressures hit harder. The volume of goods sold in shops and online dropped 1.4% in September after a revised 1.7% decline the month before. Economists had expected an 0.5% drop
ECB officials are considering whether to add a new overnight interest rate to co-exist with its three existing levers to manipulate the cost of money, Expansion reported, citing people familiar with the matter
The EU agreed to press ahead with a set of emergency actions to address the bloc’s energy crisis, with Germany yielding to pressure from other member states to pave the way for a temporary price cap on natural gas. European natural gas prices fell after the accord
US Treasuries have entered the longest sustained slump in 38 years, as policy makers signal their determination to keep raising rates until they are sure inflation is under control
The Communist Party’s list of Central Committee members released Saturday will be scrutinized by economists for what it means for the People’s Bank of China. Governor Yi Gang, 64, and Guo Shuqing, 66, who is party chief and deputy governor at the central bank, are around the official retirement age, fueling speculation over whether they’ll remain in their posts
China’s yuan is expected to weaken further after the Communist Party Congress ends this weekend, as the central bank loosens its grip on the currency, according to market watchers
A More detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks traded cautiously with the region lacking firm direction following the weak lead from Wall Street where stocks reversed initial gains amid mixed data releases and continued upside in yields. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in industrials and the top-weighted financials sector, while the Australian Treasurer also flagged a 25bps hit to Q4 GDP from recent floods. Nikkei 225 was slightly softer after mostly inline inflation data which showed Core CPI at its fastest pace of increase since 2014 and as participants remained on alert for intervention after the JPY weakened beyond the 150.00 level for the first time since 1990. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive heading towards the conclusion of the Communist Party Congress and pending release of delayed key data. Furthermore, Chinese press reports noted analysts see room for an LPR cut by year-end, although there was also the threat of further tech restrictions with the US eyeing expanding its China tech ban to quantum computing and A.I. products.
Top Asian News
US is reportedly eyeing expanding its China tech ban to quantum computing and AI products, according to Bloomberg.
Australian PM Albanese said he is concerned about a delay to the implementation of the UK-Australia trade agreement amid UK political instability, according to Reuters.
Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the latest floods are to cut 25bps from GDP growth in the December quarter, while floods will add 10bps to inflation in December and March quarters, according to Reuters.
India Rate-Setter Wants RBI to Focus on Softening Core Inflation
China Market Revival Hopes in Tatters as Congress Disappoints
Hong Kong Cancels Screening of Batman Film Shot in the City
Chinese City Plans Offshore Wind Farm That Could Power Norway
Asian Development Bank Approves $1.5 Billion Loan for Pakistan
Cash bourses in Europe started the session with losses which then extended to the downside as market sentiment further deteriorated. Sectors in Europe are in a sea of red, but defensive sectors are faring better than cyclical peers, with Healthcare, Food & Beverages, Optimised Personal Goods, and Utilities towards the top of the bunch, whilst Retail, Consumer Products, Construction, Real Estate, and Basic Resources reside on the other end of the spectrum. US equity futures are also softer across the board with the NQ (-0.9%) lagging its peers (ES -0.6%, RTY -0.5%, YM -0.4%) as bond yields continue to climb. SNAP (SNAP) – Q3 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.00), Revenue 1.128 (exp. 1.14bln). Daily active users rose 19% Y/Y to 363mln (exp. 358.7mln), sees Q4 DAU of about 375mln. Quarterly sales growth was slowest on record. Authorized a stock repurchase program of up to USD 500mln of its Class A common stock. Not providing formal Q4 guidance and sees it as highly likely that Y/Y revenue growth will decelerate as we move through Q4, due in large part to the fact that Q4 has historically been relatively more dependent on brand-oriented advertising revenue, which declined slightly on a Y/Y basis in the most recent quarter. Estimate adj. EBITDA would be about USD 200mln under about flat Y/Y revenue growth assumption for D4. (businesswire) -25% in the pre-market. US government is reportedly mulling a security review regarding Elon Musk’s deal to acquire Twitter (TWTR), according to Bloomberg. Additionally, Elon Musk is said to have told prospective investors that he planned to cut almost 75% of Twitter (TWTR) workers, according to documents cited by Washington Post. CATL slows battery investment plans in N. America, according to Reuters sources; due to concern that new US rules around sourcing battery material will increase costs.
Top European News
German Parliament votes to approve the suspension of the debt brake, via Reuters.
Italy’s Meloni says she has been proposed by the rightist coalition as PM to President Mattarella, via Reuters.
The ECB is planning to create a new interest rate, according to Expansion.
Adidas’s Unsold Sneakers and Problems Are Piling Up for Next CEO
Renault Slips as Inflation Worries Offset Revenue Gains
French Central Banker Warns Against Algos in Currency Trading
Credit Suisse Set to Settle Criminal Tax Case in France
FX
DXY has continued to benefit from further yield upside with the 10-yr eclipsing 4.25% and the index to a 113.50+ best.
As such, peers across the board are hampered with GBP lagging and approaching 1.11 amid the latest bout of political turmoil.
EUR/USD seemingly found support as it neared the 0.97 mark and conscious of multiple chunky OpEx for the NY Cut.
Traditional havens are also dented despite risk sentiment given differentials weighing; USD/JPY has risen to a test of 151.00, with participants attentive for any BoJ/MoF reaction.
Antipodeans are unable to escape the USD’s ascendance with CAD similarly dented, but off worst, amid the most recent paring of crude losses.
China’s major state-owned banks are seen selling USD in the onshore spot market to stabilise the Yuan, according to Reuters sources; meant to prevent the spot price from weakening past 7.25.
Fixed Income
Debt has extended on initial downbeat performance amid Germany approving the debt brakes suspension to fund their EUR 200bln energy support scheme.
As such, Bunds are subdued by over a full point; though, amid ongoing political turmoil, Gilts remain the laggard and briefly lost the 97.00 handle sending the corresponding yield back above 4.0%.
Stateside, USTs are similarly pressured though a touch more contained ahead of Fed’s Williams as we near the blackout period.
Elsewhere, the periphery has been unreactive to the as-expected announcement that the Italian coalition has put Meloni forward to become PM.
Commodities
WTI and Brent December contracts are lower intraday but off lows amid the firmer Dollar and deterioration of broader risk sentiment.
Spot gold posts modest losses and remains under USD 1,650/oz after dipping below yesterday’s lows.
LME metals are lower across the board with 3M copper also weighed on by the risk mood – the red metal trades on either side of USD 7,500/t.
Saudi and China are said to be ready to cooperate oil market stability; Saudi remains the most trusted China oil supplier, according to a joint statement cited by Bloomberg.
EU Council President Michel said the European Council reached an agreement on energy and agreed to work on measures to contain energy prices, according to Bloomberg.
Belgium PM says it will take 2-3 weeks for energy ministers to come up with how to implement the gas price cap, via FT’s Bounds; two energy ministers summit will probably be needed to agree energy package, via WSJ’s Norman.
Hungary’s PM Orban said an agreement was reached that even if the EU imposes a gas price cap, long-term supply agreements will be exempt, according to a Facebook post.
US Treasury Official estimates that Russia has sufficient tankers and services to trade about 80-90% of its oil, following the December 5th sanctions; circa. 1-2mln BPD of Russian crude and refined products could be shut in if they resist the price cap, via Reuters.
Geopolitcs
US Secretary of State Blinken said they take the Russian threat to use nuclear weapons seriously but have not yet seen a reason to change our nuclear status, according to Al Jazeera.
EU could reinforce sanctions on Iran if support for Russia isn’t wound back; “Several leaders said they’d be open to additional sanctions this morning.”, according to WSJ’s Norman.
US Secretary of State Blinken said they place great emphasis on making sure the differences between China and Taiwan are resolved peacefully and not through coercion or force, according to Al Jazeera.
US Event Calendar
3:15 p.m. ET: President Joe Biden delivers remarks on student debt relief in Dover, Delaware
Central Bank Speakers
09:10: Fed’s Williams Makes Opening Remarks at Careers Event
09:40: Fed’s Evans Speaks at Community Banking Symposium
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Risk assets struggled and sovereign bond yields hit fresh multi-year highs yesterday as investors moved to price in the most aggressive path for central bank rate hikes so far. In fact, there was a notable milestone for Fed funds futures, since by the close they expected the Fed to take rates above 5% next year, which is the first time that futures for an upcoming meeting have closed that high in this cycle so far. Bear in mind that on the day of Chair Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech in late-August they closed at 3.78% for the March meeting, so the stronger-than-expected inflation prints over the last couple of months have led to a big reappraisal in how hawkish the Fed and other central banks are expected to be.
Those increasingly hawkish expectations drove a fresh selloff in US Treasuries, with the 10yr yield up +9.5bps to close at 4.23%. That’s their highest level since 2008, and came as the 10yr real yield (+4.0bps) hit a post-2009 high of its own at 1.74%. And those rises have continued overnight, with 10yr yields up another +2.7bps to a new high of 4.26% as we go to print. Those moves have been partly supported by stronger-than-expected data, with the weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending October 15 unexpectedly falling to 214k (vs. 233k expected), which was seen as giving the Fed more space to keep hiking rates. But we also had a fresh round of speakers from the Fed, including Philadelphia Fed President Harker, who said that he expected rates to be “well above” 4% by the end of the year. In the meantime, Governor Cook reiterated the message from Chair Powell that the Fed would “keep at it until the job is done”, and that this would “likely will require ongoing rate hikes and then keeping policy restrictive for some time.” Remember that today is the last we’ll hear from any FOMC members, as the Fed will then be entering its blackout period ahead of the next meeting a week on Wednesday.
Central bank hawkishness had a knock-on effect on equities too, with the S&P 500 (-0.80%) losing ground for a second day running, reversing course from its early gains when it had been on track to hit a 2-week high. Those declines were led by the more cyclical sectors, but it was a broad-based move that saw over three-quarters of the index’s members lose ground on the day. Small-cap stocks underperformed in particular, with the Russell 2000 down -1.24%, whereas the Dow Jones only shed -0.30%. European equities had a comparatively better performance though, having closed before the US selloff, and the STOXX 600 advanced +0.26%.
Whilst markets are gearing up for the next round of central bank decisions, here in the UK we’re also set to have another Prime Minister by the end of next week after Liz Truss announced her resignation yesterday after just 44 days in office. That’ll mean she’s the shortest-serving PM in UK history, and caps off a brief but tumultuous period in office, with the turning point occurring on September 23 when the government’s mini-budget triggered market turmoil that eventually led the government to U-turn on most of what they announced that day. The mini-budget also led to a sharp decline in the Conservatives’ polling position against the backdrop of large rises in mortgage rates, with the opposition Labour Party seeing their largest poll leads since the late-1990s. As such, we saw growing numbers of Conservative MPs withdraw their support from Truss over recent days, ultimately leading to her resignation yesterday.
In terms of what happens next, there’s now going to be another Conservative leadership election to select the next Prime Minister, in a short contest that’ll conclude by Friday October 28 at the latest. Candidates will require nominations from 100 MPs by Monday afternoon to go onto the ballot, which means there can only be a maximum of three anyway. MPs will then vote on Monday to take that down to two candidates for grassroots Conservative members to vote on. But unlike before, MPs will also hold an indicative vote between the final two, and it’s certainly possible that the losing candidate comes under significant pressure to drop out, so we could potentially know the next PM by Monday.
When it comes to who’ll be the next PM, the bookmakers’ favourite is former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who was the runner-up to Liz Truss over the summer. But speculation is also swirling around former PM Boris Johnson, who the Times newspaper reported is expected to stand in the contest, and who a number of Conservative MPs have already publicly endorsed.
In terms of the market reaction, there weren’t any discernible moves in response to Truss’ resignation. Sterling only saw a small movement of +0.14% against the US Dollar, and the moves in 10yr gilt yields (+2.9bps) echoed those in other European countries. However, one development that led investors to dial back the amount of rate hikes priced in for the coming months was a speech by BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent, who said that “Whether official interest rates have to rise by quite as much as currently priced in financial markets remains to be seen”.
As with gilts, sovereign bonds elsewhere in Europe lost ground, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.8bps) rising to a post-2011 high of 2.39%. That followed growing expectations that the ECB were set to maintain their hawkish stance over the coming months, with the deposit rate priced in by overnight index swaps for the March meeting up a further +4.5bps to a new high of 2.76%, and this morning it’s up another +6.2bps to 2.82%. That rise in yields was driven by higher inflation breakevens yesterday rather than real rates, which wasn’t helped by the fact that natural gas futures rebounded by +13.01% to €127 per megawatt-hour, ending a run of 5 consecutive daily declines.
Overnight in Asia, the major equity indices have been struggling overnight as bond yields continue to rise. That’s seen the Nikkei (-0.33%), the Hang Seng (-0.17%) and the Kospi (-0.33%) all lose ground, although the CSI 300 (+0.15%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.50%) have both made gains. US and European equity futures have similarly fallen back, with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (-0.23%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.57%) are both lower. Snap reported their weakest sales ever quarterly sales growth, up just 6% in Q3.
Elsewhere in Asia, the other big piece of news was that the Japanese Yen weakened through 150 per dollar for first time since 1990 just after we went to press yesterday. It’s now currently trading at 150.40, putting it well on track for a 10th consecutive weekly decline against the dollar. In response, finance minister Suzuki said that there had been “absolutely no change to our thinking that we’ll take an appropriate response against excessive moves”. The moves also came as Japanese inflation remained strong, with CPI staying at +3.0% (vs. +2.9% expected), and CPI excluding fresh food up to +3.0% as expected. Apart from the jump in 2014 following the sales tax hike, that’s the highest that core measure has been since 1991.
Looking at yesterday’s other data, US existing home sales fell to an annualised rate of 4.71m in September (vs. 4.70m expected), which is their lowest level in a decade if you exclude the pandemic months of April and May 2020. Meanwhile in Germany, producer price inflation remained at +45.8% year-on-year in September (vs. +45.4% expected).
To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK retail sales for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from New York Fed President Williams. Finally, earnings releases include Verizon Communications and American Express.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK
Sentiment slips & NQ lags while DXY climbs and USD/JPY breaches 151.00 – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 06:43 AM
Equities began the session on the backfoot and have extended to the downside, with the NQ lagging stateside post-SNAP.
SNAP -25% in the pre-market; TWTR -8%, with the US reportedly to review Musk’s deal
USD continues to climb with the index above 113.50 at best while USD/JPY tests 151.00 and Cable near 1.11
Debt has extended on initial downbeat performance amid Germany approving the debt brakes suspension; UK 10yr back above 4.00%
Crude complex is softer on the session but off worst levels amid reports that China and Saudi are to cooperate on oil market stability
Looking ahead, highlights include Sovereign Debt Ratings for the UK, Germany, Czech and Italy, Speech from Fed’s Williams
Cash bourses in Europe started the session with losses which then extended to the downside as market sentiment further deteriorated.
Sectors in Europe are in a sea of red, but defensive sectors are faring better than cyclical peers, with Healthcare, Food & Beverages, Optimised Personal Goods, and Utilities towards the top of the bunch, whilst Retail, Consumer Products, Construction, Real Estate, and Basic Resources reside on the other end of the spectrum.
US equity futures are also softer across the board with the NQ (-0.9%) lagging its peers (ES -0.6%, RTY -0.5%, YM -0.4%) as bond yields continue to climb.
SNAP (SNAP) – Q3 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.00), Revenue 1.128 (exp. 1.14bln). Daily active users rose 19% Y/Y to 363mln (exp. 358.7mln), sees Q4 DAU of about 375mln. Quarterly sales growth was slowest on record. Authorized a stock repurchase program of up to USD 500mln of its Class A common stock. Not providing formal Q4 guidance and sees it as highly likely that Y/Y revenue growth will decelerate as we move through Q4, due in large part to the fact that Q4 has historically been relatively more dependent on brand-oriented advertising revenue, which declined slightly on a Y/Y basis in the most recent quarter. Estimate adj. EBITDA would be about USD 200mln under about flat Y/Y revenue growth assumption for D4. (businesswire) -25% in the pre-market
US government is reportedly mulling a security review regarding Elon Musk’s deal to acquire Twitter (TWTR), according to Bloomberg. Additionally, Elon Musk is said to have told prospective investors that he planned to cut almost 75% of Twitter (TWTR) workers, according to documents cited by Washington Post.
CATL slows battery investment plans in N. America, according to Reuters sources; due to concern that new US rules around sourcing battery material will increase costs.
DXY has continued to benefit from further yield upside with the 10-yr eclipsing 4.25% and the index to a 113.50+ best.
As such, peers across the board are hampered with GBP lagging and approaching 1.11 amid the latest bout of political turmoil.
EUR/USD seemingly found support as it neared the 0.97 mark and conscious of multiple chunky OpEx for the NY Cut.
Traditional havens are also dented despite risk sentiment given differentials weighing; USD/JPY has risen to a test of 151.00, with participants attentive for any BoJ/MoF reaction.
Antipodeans are unable to escape the USD’s ascendance with CAD similarly dented, but off worst, amid the most recent paring of crude losses.
China’s major state-owned banks are seen selling USD in the onshore spot market to stabilise the Yuan, according to Reuters sources; meant to prevent the spot price from weakening past 7.25.
Debt has extended on initial downbeat performance amid Germany approving the debt brakes suspension to fund their EUR 200bln energy support scheme.
As such, Bunds are subdued by over a full point; though, amid ongoing political turmoil, Gilts remain the laggard and briefly lost the 97.00 handle sending the corresponding yield back above 4.0%.
Stateside, USTs are similarly pressured though a touch more contained ahead of Fed’s Williams as we near the blackout period.
Elsewhere, the periphery has been unreactive to the as-expected announcement that the Italian coalition has put Meloni forward to become PM.
WTI and Brent December contracts are lower intraday but off lows amid the firmer Dollar and deterioration of broader risk sentiment.
Spot gold posts modest losses and remains under USD 1,650/oz after dipping below yesterday’s lows.
LME metals are lower across the board with 3M copper also weighed on by the risk mood – the red metal trades on either side of USD 7,500/t.
Saudi and China are said to be ready to cooperate oil market stability; Saudi remains the most trusted China oil supplier, according to a joint statement cited by Bloomberg.
EU Council President Michel said the European Council reached an agreement on energy and agreed to work on measures to contain energy prices, according to Bloomberg.
Belgium PM says it will take 2-3 weeks for energy ministers to come up with how to implement the gas price cap, via FT’s Bounds; two energy ministers summit will probably be needed to agree energy package, via WSJ’s Norman.
Hungary’s PM Orban said an agreement was reached that even if the EU imposes a gas price cap, long-term supply agreements will be exempt, according to a Facebook post.
US Treasury Official estimates that Russia has sufficient tankers and services to trade about 80-90% of its oil, following the December 5th sanctions; circa. 1-2mln BPD of Russian crude and refined products could be shut in if they resist the price cap, via Reuters.
German Parliament votes to approve the suspension of the debt brake, via Reuters.
Italy’s Meloni says she has been proposed by the rightist coalition as PM to President Mattarella, via Reuters.
The ECB is planning to create a new interest rate, according to Expansion.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct) -47 vs. Exp. -52.0 (Prev. -49.0)
UK Retail Sales MM (Sep) -1.4% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -1.6%, Rev. -1.7%); YY (Sep) -6.9% vs. Exp. -5.0% (Prev. -5.4%, Rev. -5.6%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US government is reportedly mulling a security review regarding Elon Musk’s deal to acquire Twitter (TWTR) with Biden administration officials discussing whether the US should subject some of Musk’s ventures to security reviews, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported in the Washington Post that Elon Musk told prospective investors that he planned to cut almost 75% of Twitter workers and that the current management had reportedly planned to cut payroll by about USD 800mln by the end of next year, although an internal memo from Twitter later stated that there were no plans for any company-wide layoffs.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is under pressure and has lost the USD 19k handle and lies at the lower-end of a circa USD 700 range for the session.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
US Secretary of State Blinken said they take the Russian threat to use nuclear weapons seriously but have not yet seen a reason to change our nuclear status, according to Al Jazeera.
EU could reinforce sanctions on Iran if support for Russia isn’t wound back; “Several leaders said they’d be open to additional sanctions this morning.”, according to WSJ’s Norman.
CHINA-TAIWAN
US Secretary of State Blinken said they place great emphasis on making sure the differences between China and Taiwan are resolved peacefully and not through coercion or force, according to Al Jazeera.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded cautiously with the region lacking firm direction following the weak lead from Wall Street where stocks reversed initial gains amid mixed data releases and continued upside in yields.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in industrials and the top-weighted financials sector, while the Australian Treasurer also flagged a 25bps hit to Q4 GDP from recent floods.
Nikkei 225 was slightly softer after mostly inline inflation data which showed Core CPI at its fastest pace of increase since 2014 and as participants remained on alert for intervention after the JPY weakened beyond the 150.00 level for the first time since 1990.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive heading towards the conclusion of the Communist Party Congress and pending release of delayed key data. Furthermore, Chinese press reports noted analysts see room for an LPR cut by year-end, although there was also the threat of further tech restrictions with the US eyeing expanding its China tech ban to quantum computing and A.I. products.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
US is reportedly eyeing expanding its China tech ban to quantum computing and AI products, according to Bloomberg.
Australian PM Albanese said he is concerned about a delay to the implementation of the UK-Australia trade agreement amid UK political instability, according to Reuters.
Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the latest floods are to cut 25bps from GDP growth in the December quarter, while floods will add 10bps to inflation in December and March quarters, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
Japanese National CPI YY (Sep) 3.0% vs Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.0%); CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Sep) 3.0% vs Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.8%); Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Sep) 1.8% vs Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.6%)
New Zealand Trade Balance (Sep) -1615M (Prev. -2447.0M, Rev. -2625M)
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3,88 PTS OR 0.13% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 69.10 OR 0.42% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 116.38PTS OR 0.43% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.71% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7.2464 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.2682// /Oil DOWN TO 84,96 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.69 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
end
2B JAPAN
Japan/GLOBE
The Japanese government has now lost control of their economy: the Yen exceeds 151 to the dollar sparking market wide chaos
(zerohedge)
“They’ve Totally Lost Control” – Yen Puke Sparks Market-Wide Chaos
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 08:26 AM
Despite intervention chatter overnight, the Japanese Yen is puking hard this morning, crashing above 151/USD just hours after breaching 150/USD for the first time in 32 years…
That Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated Friday that Japan was ready to act, saying that the recent sudden, one-sided yen weakness was undesirable and he was watching markets with a high sense of urgency.
160/USD (from April 1990) looks like the next support…
That puke is triggering chaos across the rest of global markets.
US Treasury yields are spiking (10Y above 4.30%)…
US equity futures are getting hit hard…
And Bitcoin plunged back below $19,000…
As one veteran trader MSG’d us: “they’ve totally lost control, The BoJ is f**ked either way here.”
He is referring to the fact that while no one is talking about it, The BoJ’s YCC scheme has failed with 10Y JGBs now trading above 25bps for over a month.
The choices before Japanese policy makers are stark:
either relax the yield-curve control framework;
or be willing to let the yen weaken.
Until then, as we discussed last month, further interventions are doomed to failure.
Indeed, as Bloomberg’s Ven Ram recently noted: “there is no third choice really at a time when inflationary pressures in the US are likely to compel the Fed to keep going and causing inflation-adjusted yield differentials to move in favor of the dollar against the yen. “
end
Then late in the morning; Central Bank of Japan intervention: it will not work!
BoJ Is In Da House…
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 10:43 AM
Update (1045ET): It appears yentervention is back as USDJPY puked to 152/USD, suddenly two huge bids appeared in the market lifting it back to 148/USD…
What will be the half-life of this round of manipulation?
Round 1 was on September 22…
Round 2 was just two weeks ago…
And Round 3 was just last week…
* * *
The Bank of Japan on Thursday said it would launch an emergency bond-buying operation, offering to purchase ¥250bn ($1.7bn) of government debt as it works to pin down yields even as long-term interest rates rise globally.
The choices before Japanese policy makers are stark:
either relax the yield-curve control framework;
or be willing to yen the weaken.
Until then, as we discussed last month, further interventions are doomed to failure.
Indeed, as Bloomberg’s Ven Ram recently noted: “there is no third choice really at a time when inflationary pressures in the US are likely to compel the Fed to keep going and causing inflation-adjusted yield differentials to move in favor of the dollar against the yen. “
3c CHINA
CHINA/USA/EUROPE//TAIWAN
USA mulls joint weapons production with Taiwan and that will hasten China’s move to attack Taiwan. Deliveries of weapons have slowed to Taiwan due to the Ukraine war.
(zerohedge)
US Mulls Joint Weapons Production With Taiwan As Deliveries Slowed By Ukraine War
THURSDAY, OCT 20, 2022 – 08:00 PM
In the latest move upping the ante of escalation with China, the US has said it is mulling a plan for joint weapons manufacturing with Taiwan, which would drastically speed up arms deliveries for the island.
Initial discussions have been revealed by Nikkei Asia, and crucially the report comes on the heels of Secretary of State Antony Blinken warning on Monday that China has accelerated its timeline for an invasion of Taiwan. “A fundamental decision [has been made] that the status quo was no longer acceptable, and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification [with Taiwan] on a much faster timeline,” Blinken had said.
Weapons deliveries to Taipei have been considerably delayed and slowed, despite the US having approved some $20 billion total in arms sales for the self-ruled island since 2017. Defense News has cited a $14 billion backlog in sales from the US.
A person with direct knowledge of the administration’s internal deliberation acknowledged that initial discussions on joint U.S.-Taiwan production had begun. It is likely for U.S. defense companies to provide technology to manufacture weapons in Taiwan, or to produce them in the U.S. using Taiwan-made parts. “This is going to take some time to really shake out,” said another source, adding that the process is likely to continue throughout 2023.
President of the US-Taiwan Business Council Rupert Hammond-Chambers has described the idea of joint production as being “right at the beginning of the process.”
Ironically enough, Washington’s ‘all-in’ support for Ukraine is named as a major factor in slowing Taiwan’s weapons procurement, per Nikkei:
The rapid increase in arms provisions to Ukraine has made it difficult for the U.S. alone to meet the global demand for weaponry. In a mid-September report, Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that U.S. inventories of Stingers, a mobile air-defense system, and HIMARS, high-mobility rocket systems, were “limited.”
American and Taiwanese officials themselves have repeatedly referenced the Ukraine crisis as demonstrating why the US needs to urgently equip the island with everything it needs.
But one potential major roadblock in any joint manufacturing scheme would be Pentagon and State Department reluctance to issue special licenses, on concerns that classified and sensitive military technology could fall into the wrong hands.
end
The final countdown for Taiwan is on:
Pepe Escobar
Escobar: China’s Xi Gets Ready For The Final Countdown
President Xi Jinping’s 1h45min speech at the opening of the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing was an absorbing exercise of recent past informing near future. All of Asia and all of the Global South should carefully examine it.
The Great Hall was lavishly adorned with bright red banners. A giant slogan hanging in the back of the hall read, “Long Live our great, glorious and correct party”.
Another one, below, functioned like a summary of the whole report:
“Hold high the great flag of socialism with Chinese characteristics, fully implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, carry forward the great founding spirit of the party, and unite and struggle to fully build a modern socialist country and to fully promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
True to tradition, the report outlined the CPC’s achievements over the past 5 years and China’s strategy for the next 5 – and beyond. Xi foresees “fierce storms” ahead, domestic and foreign. The report was equally significant for what was not spelled out, or left subtly implied.
Every member of the CPC’s Central Committee had already been briefed about the report – and approved it. They will spend this week in Beijing studying the fine print and will vote to adopt it on Saturday. Then a new CPC Central Committee will be announced, and a new Politburo Standing Committee – the 7 that really rule – will be formally endorsed.
This new leadership line-up will clarify the new generation faces that will be working very close to Xi, as well as who will succeed Li Keqiang as the new Prime Minister: he has finished his two terms and, according to the constitution, must step down.
There are also 2,296 delegates present at the Great Hall representing the CPC’s over 96 million members. They are not mere spectators: at the plenary session that ended last week, they analyzed in-depth every major issue, and prepared for the National Congress. They do vote on party resolutions – even as those resolutions are decided by the top leadership, and behind closed doors.
The key takeaways
Xi contends that in these past 5 years the CPC strategically advanced China while “correctly” (Party terminology) responding to all foreign challenges. Particularly key achievements include poverty alleviation, the normalization of Hong Kong, and progress in diplomacy and national defense.
It’s quite telling that Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who was sitting in the second row, behind the current Standing Committee members, never took his eyes off Xi, while others were reading a copy of the report on their desk.
Compared to the achievements, success of the Xi-ordered Zero-Covid policy remains highly debatable. Xi stressed that it has protected people’s lives. What he could not possibly say is that the premise of his policy is to treat Covid and its variants as a US bioweapon directed against China. That is, a serious matter of national security that trumps any other consideration, even the Chinese economy.
Zero-Covid hit production and the job market extremely hard, and virtually isolated China from the outside world. Just a glaring example: Shanghai’s district governments are still planning for zero-Covid on a timescale of two years. Zero-Covid will not go away anytime soon.
A serious consequence is that the Chinese economy will most certainly grow this year by less than 3% – well below the official target of “around 5,5%”.
Now let’s look at some of the Xi report’s highlights.
Taiwan: Beijing has started “a great struggle against separatism and foreign interference” on Taiwan.
Hong Kong: It is now “administered by patriots, making it a better place.” In Hong Kong there was “a major transition from chaos to order.” Correct: the 2019 color revolution nearly destroyed a major global trade/finance center.
Poverty alleviation: Xi hailed it as one of three “major events” of the past decade along with the CPC’s centenary and socialism with Chinese characteristics entering a “new era”. Poverty alleviation is the core of one of the CPC’s “two centenary goals.”
Opening up: China has become “a major trading partner and a major destination for foreign investment.” That’s Xi refuting the notion that China has grown more autarchic. China will not engage in any kind of “expansionism” while opening up to the outside world. The basic state policy remains: economic globalization. But – he didn’t say it – “with Chinese characteristics”.
“Self-revolution”: Xi introduced a new concept. “Self-revolution” will allow China to escape a historical cycle leading to a downturn. And “this ensures the party will never change.” So it’s the CPC or bust.
Marxism: definitely remains as one of the fundamental guiding principles. Xi stressed, “We owe the success of our party and socialism with Chinese characteristics to Marxism and how China has managed to adapt it.”
Risks: that was the speech’s recurrent theme. Risks will keep interfering with those crucial “two centenary goals”. Number one goal was reached last year, at the CPC’s 100th anniversary, when China reached the status of a “moderately prosperous society” in all respects (xiaokang, in Chinese). Number two goal should be reached at the centenary of the People’s Republic of China in 2049: to “build a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious.”
Development: the focus will be on “high-quality development”, including resilience of supply chains and the “dual circulation” economic strategy: expansion of domestic demand in parallel to foreign investment (mostly centered on BRI projects). That will be China’s top priority. So in theory any reforms will privilege a combination of “socialist market economy” and high-level opening, mixing the creation of more domestic demand with supply-side structural reform. Translation: “Dual-circulation” on steroids.
“Whole-process democracy”: that was the other new concept introduced by Xi. Translates as “democracy that works”, as in rejuvenating the Chinese nation under – what else – the CPC’s absolute leadership: “We need to ensure that people can exercise their powers through the People’s Congress system.”
Socialist culture: Xi said it’s absolutely essential “to influence young people”. The CPC must exercise ideological control and make sure the media fosters a generation of young people “who are influenced by traditional culture, patriotism and socialism”, thus benefitting “social stability”. The “China story” must go everywhere, presenting a China that is “credible and respectable”. That certainly applies to Chinese diplomacy, even the “Wolf Warriors”.
“Sinicise religion”: Beijing will continue its drive to “Sinicise religion”, as in “proactively” adapting “religion and the socialist society”. This campaign was introduced in 2015, meaning for instance that Islam and Christianity must be under CPC control and in line with Chinese culture.
The Taiwan pledge
Now we reach the themes that completely obsess the decaying Hegemon: the connection between China’s national interests and how they affect the civilization-state’s role in international relations.
National security: “National security is the foundation of national rejuvenation, and social stability is a prerequisite of national strength.”
The military: the PLA’s equipment, technology and strategic capability will be strengthened. It goes without saying that means total CPC control over the military.
“One country, two systems”: It has proven to be “the best institutional mechanism for Hong Kong and Macau and must be adhered to in the long term”. Both “enjoy high autonomy” and are “administered by patriots.” Xi promised to better integrate both into national strategies.
Taiwan reunification: Xi made a pledge to complete the reunification of China. Translation: return Taiwan to the motherland. That was met with a torrent of applause, leading to the key message, addressed simultaneously to the Chinese nation and “foreign interference” forces: “We will not renounce the use of force and will take all necessary measures to stop all separatist movements.” The bottom line: “The resolution of the Taiwan issue is a matter for the Chinese people themselves, to be decided by the Chinese people.”
It’s also quite telling that Xi did not even mention Xinjiang by name: only by implication, when he stressed that China must strengthen the unity of all ethnic groups. Xinjiang for Xi and the leadership mean industrialization of the Far West and a crucial node in BRI: not the object of an imperial demonization campaign. They know that the CIA destabilization tactics used in Tibet for decades did not work in Xinjiang.
Shelter from the storm
Now let’s unpack some of the variables affecting the very tough years ahead for the CPC.
When Xi mentioned “fierce storms ahead”, that’s what he thinks about 24/7: Xi is convinced the USSR collapsed because the Hegemon did everything to undermine it. He won’t allow a similar process to derail China.
In the short term, the “storm” may refer to the latest round of the no holds barred American war on Chinese technology – not to mention free trade: cutting China off from buying or manufacturing chips and components for supercomputers.
It’s fair to consider Beijing keeps the focus long-term, betting that most of the world, especially the Global South, will move away from the US high tech supply chain and prefer the Chinese market. As the Chinese increasingly become self sufficient, US tech firms will end up losing world markets, economies of scale, and competitiveness.
Xi also did not mention the US by name. Everyone in the leadership – especially the new Politburo – is aware of how Washington wants to “decouple” from China in every possible way and will continue to provocatively deploy every possible strand of hybrid war.
Xi did not enter into details during his speech, but it’s clear the driving force going forward will be technological innovation linked to a global vision. That’s where BRI comes in, again – as the privileged field of application for these tech breakthroughs.
Only this way we can understand how Zhu Guangyao, a former vice minister of finance, may be sure that per capita GDP in China in 2035 would at least double the numbers in 2019 and reach $20,000.
The challenge for Xi and the new Politburo right away is to fix China’s structural economic imbalance. And pumping up debt-financed “investment” all over again won’t work.
So bets can be made that Xi’s third term – to be confirmed later this week – will have to concentrate on rigorous planning and monitoring of implementation, much more than during his previous bold, ambitious, abrasive but sometimes disconnected years. The Politburo will have to pay way more attention to technical considerations. Xi will have to delegate more serious policymaking autonomy to a bunch of competent technocrats.
Otherwise, we will be back to that startling observation by then Premier Wen Jiabao in 2007: China’s economy is “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and ultimately unsustainable”. That’s exactly where the Hegemon wants it to be.
As it stands, things are far from gloomy. The National Development and Reform Commission states that compared to the rest of the world, China’s consumer inflation is only “marginal”; the job market is steady; and international payments are stable.
Xi’s work report and pledges may also be seen as turning the usual Anglo-American geopolitical suspects – Mackinder, Mahan, Spykman, Brzezinski – upside down.
The China-Russia strategic partnership has no time to lose with global hegemonic games; what drives them is that sooner rather than later they will be ruling the Heartland – the world island – and beyond, with allies from the Rimland, and from Africa to Latin America, all participating in a new form of globalization. Certainly with Chinese characteristics; but most of all, pan-Eurasian characteristics.
The final countdown is already on.
END
CHINA///ZHENGZHOU//COVID
World’s largest iphone manufacturer in China (Zhengzhou) has imposed COVID 19 restrictions at the plant due to higher COVID numbers
This is totally idiotic
(zerohedge)
World’s Largest iPhone Factory In China Imposes Health Restrictions After Covid Flare-Up
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 06:55 AM
The world’s largest iPhone factory in the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou imposed Covid-19 restrictions at the plant for hundreds of thousands of workers. This comes as China has been grappling with a Covid resurgence in recent weeks.
Foxconn’s Zhengzhou campus has about 300,000 workers — all have been banned from eating in public and must take meals back to their dorms for consumption, the South China Morning Post reported, citing a notice on the factory’s official WeChat account.
“Foxconn’s Zhengzhou workers are only permitted to commute along certain routes within the campus, with many entrances closed in a de facto lockdown,” SCMP said. In another notice, workers living off campus were advised to move into on-site dormitories.
At least for now, production of iPhones at the Zhengzhou campus remains normal despite the newly enacted Covid restrictions, according to a Foxconn spokesman.
“Production in the Zhengzhou campus remains normal, without a notable impact [from the Covid-19] situation,” the spokesman said.
China has yet to capitulate on its long-standing Zero-Covid policy (despite being a convenient scapegoat for Xi to deflect anger at the slowing economy during this month’s 20th party Congress). More than one million people were ordered to stay at home this week in the metro area surrounding the iPhone campus.
The new measures come as the demand for the new iPhone appears to have worsened. The Information reported earlier this week that Apple slashed iPhone 14 Plus production less than two weeks after its debut.
SCMP said increasing infections of Covid are forcing some companies to embrace so-called “closed loop” systems, where workers live on campus and are prohibited from physical contact with the outside world – including family members.
Zero-Covid has dragged growth of the world’s second-largest economy and roiled global supply chains. The good news is the reverse bullwhip effect has left US retailers with large inventories, forcing container lines to slash sails as US importers reduce shipments from Asia.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS
UK
there are 3 videos in this commentary that are a must view:
The UK has their conservative party turn into social democrats. What a total disgrace
Jeremy Hunt, the new ‘de facto Prime Minister’, is a ‘Zero-COVID’ loon who lobbied for children to be taken from their parents and put in quarantine camps.
“We’re viewed as a complete laughing stock. There’s now no point to the Tory party at all. It serves no purpose. Not only is it going to lose the next election. I say it needs to be replaced.”
Good luck, UK!
video no 3 Paul Joseph Watson…
Paul Joseph Watson attempts to explain the ‘utter clusterfuck’ we have seen in the UK in the last few weeks in his indomitable manner…
The huge European fertilizer company, Yara slashes European output as the energy crisis worsens
(zerohedge)
Fertilizer Giant Yara Slashes European Output As Energy Crisis Worsens
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 02:45 AM
Europe’s fertilizer supply crunch continues to tighten after Yara International ASA announced Thursday that third-quarter ammonia output was slashed due to skyrocketing natural gas prices, putting more upward pressure on food inflation as the cost-of-living crisis worsens.
The Norwegian producer said ammonia output in the quarter dropped to 57% of capacity in Europe, plunging from 81% in the previous quarter. It warned output could collapse to just 35% if NatGas prices stay elevated through the cold season, according to Bloomberg.
Russia’s squeeze on NatGas, Western sanctions on Moscow inhibiting energy flows from Russia, and Nord Stream pipeline sabotage has caused a massive squeeze on shipments to the energy-stricken continent. The good news is Europe’s NatGas storage facilities are almost full, but the EU has yet to find new fuel sources to offset Russian flows entirely. A significant risk looms if a cold, harsh winter quickly draws down supplies.
Drawing down on supplies would send EU NatGas prices to higher levels from here.
As a reminder, NatGas is a key feedstock for fertilizers and a power source for European heavy industries. Companies and households have been battered by soaring energy inflation.
The problem of reduced fertilizer output by Yara and others is that higher costs will affect farmers into the next growing season.
Some farmers may reduce the amount of fertilizer they use to save costs which may stress wheat and corn crops next year and reduce yield potential. Perhaps the global food crisis only worsens from here.
end
SWITZERLAND/CREDIT SUISSE/FED
Credit Suisse is in big trouble with its massive derivate dollar short. This dollar short was used to manipulate the precious metals lower
Now they are paying the piper. Watch next week with the Fed supply more overnight swaps to the SNB
(zerohedge)
Fed Quietly Sends Record $11 Billion To Switzerland As Dollar Funding Shockwave Crushes Central Banks
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 02:20 PM
Stocks are surging today amid a dovish one-two punch from Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos who hinted that the time is coming to reassess the pace of rate hikes, followed a few hours later by the otherwise hawkish Mary Daly who also suggested that the Fed may be moving too fast while bringing up the sensitive topic of broken markets, and the reason for this particular dovish reversal and jawboning is becoming increasingly clear: the same reason we have been warning for the past year that the Fed’s tightening campaign, now in its terminal stages, will inevitably break something which will manifest itself first in a worldwide dollar shortage and short-squeeze crisis, as global USD funding markets grind to a halt.
Of course, this is good news, because as BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett (whose latest weekly note we will dissect shortly) is fond of saying “Markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking.”
So in what may be the best news to shellshocked bulls after the worst September and worst Q3 in generations, in a harrowing year for markets, central banks are starting to panic more with every passing day. First it was the BOJ with its September intervention, then the BOE with its bailout of pensions, then the BOJ again with its second consecutive injection of billions of US dollars into the market – consider the paradox: there is such a massive USD short squeeze out there that it was the Bank of Japan that was compelled to inject approximately $40 billion in USD today (in only its second intervention this century) to prop up the yen since the Fed won’t lift a finger…
… and now, for the third week in a row, it’s Switzerland’s turn.
Recall that one month ago, after the (first) panicked pivot by the BOE, when global markets were in freefall, we said that markets desperately needed some words of encouragement from the Fed, or failing that – and with the dollar soaring to new all time highs every day – the Fed had to make some pre-emptive announcement on USD Fx swap lines, if only to reassure global markets that amid this historic, US dollar short squeeze, at least someone can and will print as many as are needed to avoid systemic collapse.
So fast forward two weeks to October 5, when there still hasn’t been any formal announcement from the Fed, but ever so quietly the Fed shuttled $3.1 billion to the Swiss National Bank to cover an emergency dollar shortfall, as we first reported a few days ago.
Remarkably, this was the first time the Fed sent dollars to the SNB this year, and the first time the Fed used the swap line in size (besides a token amount to the ECB every now and then)!
But it certainly wouldn’t be the last time – as we have warned, expect far wider use of Fed swap lines as the world chokes on the global dollar shortage – and sure enough one week later, the Fed announced that it had doubled the size of its USD swap with the world’s most pristine economy and its central bank, the Swiss National Bank, sending some $6.27 billion to avoid an emergency funding crunch.
… And then, just when people thought that things are set to normalize with Credit Suisse stock surging, it doubled it again, and in the latest week, the Fed almost doubled the amount of US liquidity it sent to Switzerland from $6.3 billion to $11.1 billion…
… a number which is roughly doubling every single week. Remarkably, this was not only the third consecutive time the Fed sent dollars (in size) to the SNB this year, but the largest single USD swap transfer in history!
The next logical question obviously is: why does Switzerland have a financial institution needing over $11 billion in cheap (3.33%) overnight funding – up from $3 billion two weeks ago. We don’t know the answer, but have a pretty good idea of who the culprit may be courtesy of Goldman which earlier this week issued the following competitor warrant.
And speaking of the coming crisis, recall what we said at the start of September: the coming Fed pivot will have nothing to do with whether the Fed hits or doesn’t hit its inflation target, and everything to do with the devastation unleashed by the soaring dollar (a record margin call to the tune of some $20 trillion) on the rest of the world.
Here will will again remind readers of what Bob Michele, the outspoken chief investment officer of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, told everyone a few weeks ago as paraphrased by Bloomberg, when he said that said “the relentless dollar could forge a path to the next market upheaval.”
Michele has been in de-risking mode, sitting on a pile of cash which is near the highest level he has held in 10 years. And he is long the dollar. While a market crisis sparked by the greenback is not his base case, it’s a tail risk that he is monitoring closely.
Here’s how it could happen: Foreigners have snapped up dollar-denominated assets for higher yields, safety, and a brighter earnings outlook than most markets. A big chunk of those purchases are hedged back into local currencies such as the euro and the yen through the derivatives market, and it involves shorting the dollar. When the contracts roll, investors have to pay up if the dollar moves higher. That means they may have to sell assets elsewhere to cover the loss.
“I get concerned that a much stronger dollar will create a lot of pressure, particularly in hedging US dollar assets back to local currencies,” Michele said in an interview. “When the central bank steps on the brakes, something goes through the windshield. The cost of financing has gone up and it will create tension in the system.”
The market probably saw some of that pressure already: as we noted at the time, investment-grade credit spreads spiked close to 20 basis points toward the end of September. That’s coincidental with a lot of currency hedges rolling over at the end of the third quarter, he said — and it may be just “the tip of an iceberg.”
Indeed it was, and since then things have only gotten worse… and will keep getting worse, because here is Michele is what he thinks happens next: as Bloomberg writes, “the central bank will be so committed to combating inflation that it will keep raising rates and won’t pause or reverse course unless something really bad happens to markets or the economy, or both. If policy makers pause in response to market functionality, there has to be such a shock to the system that it creates potential insolvencies. And a rising dollar might do just that.”
Needless to say, the fact that the Fed is already quietly shuttling tens of billions of dollars to various central banks to plug dollar overnight funding holes, confirms that the rising dollar has already done just that. One look at the meltup in FRA-OIS – the most widely used indicator of interbank lack of funding and liquidity – which just hit a fresh 2022 high, is enough confirmation.
As for what happens next, we suggest that you i) quietly panic if you are still short USD – and hoping for the Fed to come to the rescue – because at last check (March 2020) JPMorgan calculated that the global dollar short was $12 trillion with a T, or some 60% of US GDP, a number which has conservatively grown to about $20 trillion as of today…
… and ii) keep a very close eye on the visitors to this particular tower…
… and this particular hotel.
END
wow@@GERMAN PPI
German producer prices surge 45% annually in September, the biggest increase ever for a second straight month
Oct. 20, 2022 at 3:11 a.m. ET
Germany’s producer prices rose strongly in September from a year earlier, driven by higher energy prices, the German statistics office Destatis said.
Producer prices rose 45.8% on year in September, Destatis said Thursday. This matches the 45.8% year-on-year rise in August, the biggest increase ever recorded.
Compared with the preceding month, the producer price index rose 2.3% in September, increasing less strongly than in August, when it rose 7.9%, the biggest month-on-month increase ever recorded.
Energy prices rose 132.2% from a year earlier, Destatis said. Strong gains in the price of natural gas, up 192.4% on year, and electricity, up 158.3%, were the major drivers behind the increase, it said.
The PPI excluding energy rose 14.0% on year, according to Destatis.
Prices of intermediate goods increased 16.8% from a year earlier. Significant price increases were recorded by metals, which were 18.1% up on year, Destatis said.
Prices of nondurable consumer goods increased by 18.3% on year, prices of durable consumer goods rose 10.9% and capital-goods prices increased by 7.8%, Destatis’ data showed.
The United States and its NATO allies are accelerating transfers of arms, warm clothing and anti-drone technology to Ukraine in preparation for months of bitter combat through the winter. Washington believes shoring up frontline forces before mud and ice set in will help Kiev to hold ground over the coming season.
Speaking on condition of anonymity during a recent NATO summit in Berlin, a Western official told reporters that the alliance had already started providing winter gear, claiming “The Ukrainians are on their front foot, and they certainly feel prepared for the winter campaign,” and that foreign aid is currently “very much [focused on] the winter.”
While top officials acknowledge that the snow, mud and ice of winter will slow troop movements, they believe Kiev can continue to push counter-offensives to reclaim territory now occupied by Russian soldiers despite the frigid temperatures.
“I expect that Ukraine will continue to do everything it can throughout the winter to regain its territory and to be effective on the battlefield,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said after a meeting in Brussels last week.
Ukraine has gained ground from Russian forces over the last two months, and is advancing into regions which Moscow now claims as its own territory. President Vladimir Putin has vowed to use his entire arsenal to defend all of Russia, including four recently annexed regions of Ukraine which voted to join the Russian Federation in (internationally disputed) referendums last month.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has echoed Austin’s optimism about Ukraine’s chances to make progress against the Russians during the cold season.
“Our task is to enable them to also be able to conduct meaningful operations throughout the winter and continue to supply them with everything from fuel, winter clothing, tents to advanced weapons systems,” he said.
Kiev has heavily depended on the West to train its soldiers and supply arms, ammunition and battlefield intelligence since Russian forces invaded in late February. In that time, the White House has approved at least $70 billion in aid to Kiev, much of that devoted to heavy weapons and vehicles, including long-range multi-launch rocket platforms, artillery pieces, shoulder-fired rockets, helicopters and drones.
Though US arms stockpiles have become increasingly depleted after countless rounds of arms shipments, the flow of aid appears set to carry on at the present pace, with Secretary Austin recently declaring that Washington will continue to “do everything we can to make sure that they have what’s required to be effective.”
END
IRAN/USA
Another seizing of two USA high tech sea drones off the coast of Yemen.
This is not good
(zerohedge)
Iran’s Military Boasts It Seized 2 US Sea Drones Off Yemen
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 12:20 PM
Iran’s military on Friday is boasting that it has seized a pair of unmanned US vessels in the Red Sea at a moment tensions with Washington are at boiling point over arms transfers between Tehran and Moscow.
Iran’s Navy Chief, Admiral Shahram Irani issued a statement describing that the sea drones posed safety issues to area maritime navigation, as quoted in semi-official Tasnim news agency. According to the Iranian navy statement, “Where maritime safety was threatened by the unjustified forces in the region, Iran’s Army Naval Forces were able to seize 2 American unmanned vessels.”
“The US should know it must comply with international laws if it is shipping somewhere,” the admiral added. “The Islamic Republic of Iran, with its powerful presence in the region, will deal decisively with any move that endangers the security and safety of shipping, he stressed.”
Little is as yet confirmed of the incident, which an initial statement from the US Navy calling the Iranian claims “not true”. However, it appears something did happen, given other international monitors say they are tracking an incident unfolding.
According to Bloomberg, “The British Navy’s UKMTO said it is aware of reports of an incident in the vicinity of Ash Shihr, Yemen, according to a post on its website.”
Both the US and Israel have of late stepped up a joint naval presence in the Red Sea region, citing both threats from Iran and Yemeni Houthi rebels, which are backed by Tehran have at various times attacked Saudi Arabia.
Likely the incident involves the US Navy’s cutting edge Saildrone Explorer USV (unmanned surface vehicle), a newly developed and deployed US-manufactured high tech data collection system which uses AI to autonomously gather oceanic and other intelligence.
A late August incident involved a US warship and helicopter thwarting an attempt by Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC Navy) to capture one or more Saildrones while traversing an area of the Persian Gulf. That prior incident resulted in the IRGC quickly releasing the drone after briefly capturing it. It’s possible this latest Friday intercept may have again involved the IRGC navy briefly halting the drone’s passage before releasing it upon a new threat by nearby US Navy assets, hence the US denial that it’s been “captured”
END.
Watch what happens on a Russian nuclear strike:
(special thanks to robert H for sending this to us)
Simulation reveals how a Russian nuclear strike could trigger a war that kills 34 million people | Daily Mail Online
Pfizer is looking to raise the price of its COVID-19 vaccines in the United States by up to four times once Washington’s purchase program ends, according to the company’s U.S. president, Angela Lukin.
Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine is presently provided free for all Americans by the U.S. government. Next year, when the U.S. public health emergency expires, the COVID-19 vaccine market will move to private insurance. The federal government is paying roughly $30 per dose for the Pfizer vaccine. When the government purchase program shuts down, Lukin expects a dose to be priced around $110 to $130.
“We are confident that the U.S. price point of the COVID-19 vaccine reflects its overall cost-effectiveness and ensures the price will not be a barrier for access for patients,” Lukin said, according to Reuters.
The Pfizer executive is expecting the vaccine purchase to transfer to the private sector, “at the earliest,” by first quarter 2023. According to Lukin, the vaccine will continue to be available for free for people who have government or private insurance.
In 2021, Pfizer made almost $37 billion through COVID-19 vaccine sales, with overall revenues doubling, to $81.3 billion. The company is expecting revenues to reach $98 billion to $102 billion this year.
According to the UK-based organization Global Justice Now, Pfizer’s COVID-19 shot was developed by BioNTech and supported by a €375 million ($366 million) grant from the German government and €100 million ($97 million) in debt financing from the European Investment Bank, a publicly owned entity.
“We’ve let Pfizer withhold this essential medical innovation from much of the world, all the while ripping off public health systems with an eye-watering mark-up,” said Tim Bierley, a pharmaceutical campaigner at the group, according to The Guardian.
Shrinking Market, Vaccine Dangers
As fewer people take COVID-19 shots, vaccine manufacturers will have to raise prices significantly to meet revenue expectations that Wall Street has for 2023 and the years ahead.
Many experts were expecting the number of annual COVID-19 shots to be in line with the annual flu vaccine. In the United States, 160 million flu shots are administered every year. However, as many Americans are becoming reluctant to get COVID-19 shots, expectations of market size have tempered.
“The fact that you have people saying the pandemic is over doesn’t motivate people to get vaccinated,” Dr. Bruce Farber, chief of public health and epidemiology for New York hospital system Northwell Health, said to Reuters.
There are also growing worries about the potential side effects of the COVID-19 vaccines, which could dampen the market.
Recently, Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph A. Ladapo issued new guidance on mRNA COVID-19 vaccines like those manufactured by Pfizer. The guidance recommended males between the ages of 18 and 39 against taking such shots, warning about an increased risk of cardiac-related death.
Meanwhile, Pfizer has submitted a request to the Food and Drug Administration to grant Emergency Use Authorization for COVID-19 vaccine boosters for children as young as five.
Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
80 Canadian Doctors DEAD Following COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates as Death Toll Continues to Rise
October 20, 2022 2:15 pm
On July 30, 2022 we published an article about how 6 formerly young and healthy doctors in Canada died within two weeks of each other, after one hospital in Canada mandated a 4th COVID booster shot. That article was viewed over 200,000 times on our network. That article was updated on September 20, 2022 when Dr. William Makis announced that he had tracked the deaths of 32 medical doctors in Canada: “I have now tracked 32 Canadian doctor sudden deaths (thank you to all who contributed). These doctors were actively practicing medicine & were healthy prior to taking illegally mandated COVID-19 Vaccines (2, 3 or 4 doses).” Today, October 20, 2022, Dr. Mark Trozzi from Canada has published an update stating that the number of “injected doctors” in Canada who have died has now reached 80.
Forget Oil, The Real Crisis Is Diesel Inventories: The US Has Just 25 Days Left
October 20, 2022 3:26 pm
For all the drama surrounding Biden’s latest Strategic Petroleum Reserve fiasco and his admin’s ridiculous idea to “stimulate” US energy producers to pump more oil because, you see, Biden promises to buy oil at some unknown point in the future (he may or may not, but right now he is certainly draining a million barrels of emergency US energy lifeblood just to buy a few midterm votes, assuring energy producers have zero incentive to produce more), the real crisis is not oil or gas, but diesel. According to the EIA, the US now has just 25 days of diesel supply, the lowest since 2008.
Zero hedge explains why oil will surge to over $100 per barrel after the mid terms. In December Russian oil will be embargoed. (Natural Gas is already sanctioned)
(zerohedge)
Oil Will Surge By More Than $30/bbl To “Well Over $100” After The Midterms
THURSDAY, OCT 20, 2022 – 10:00 PM
With everyone obsessing over UK lettuce and the Fed blowing up the US economy, there was not enough digital ink to discuss the supreme irony of Biden unleashing another release of oil from the Midterm Petroleum Reserve and… oil surging.
Unfortunately for the ever more addled president, this is just the start.
On Wednesday, Amrita Sen, co-founder and research director at consultants Energy Aspects, said on Bloomberg TV that the market risks losing Russian barrels in December as EU restrictions on imports and shipping potentially dissuade tanker owners from moving that country’s crude.
As a result, oil prices “are going to be headed well over $100” going into December while near-term prices are pressured by strikes in France and lockdowns in China that suppress demand. However, once those wear off, Europe will have to stop importing 1m to 1.5m b/d of Russian crude when embargo on seaborne shipments takes effect in December; those barrels – as Zoltan Pozsar explained all the way back in March and April – will have to be shipped to more distant markets with transport times of 30-50 days vs only 3-4 days to Europe, causing surging costs and substantial delays.
Separately, if shipowners decide that the risk of sanctions is too high to move Russian crude “you will lose some shipping and that will tie up more oil.”
This reminds us of something Goldman flow trader Rich Privorotsky wrote in this morning’s market wrap (available to pro subs), when we cautioned that hs is “getting increasingly concerned about oil market supply beyond the midterms. This proposal from the EU is not helping my anxiety as the proposed oil cap could have some pretty major consequences in the shipping market” Here’s why as Bloomberg noted earlier:
“In the event that a vessel under the flag of a third country has transported Russian crude oil or petroleum products purchased at a price above the price cap, it should be prohibited to provide technical assistance, brokering services, financing or financial assistance, including insurance, related to any transport in the future by that vessel of crude oil or petroleum products”
That will certainly spark a profound chilling effect across the entire industry.
But what about Biden’s SPR drain – is it really that useless, and won’t it help at least a little? Well, according to Sen, limits on how low stocks can be drawn mean sales won’t be as large as some expect (analysts are expecting a release of as much as 100m bbl; with 26m bbl to be released between December and February).
But the clearest explanation why Biden’s last-ditch SPR release won’t do jack, comes from Goldman’s commodity strategists led by Jeff Currie who published a note late on Thursday (and also available to pro subs), in which they write the following:
Following OPEC+’s surprise 2mb/d cut on October 5, the Biden administration was quick to imply a policy response, concerned about rising gasoline prices fact sheet into November 8 midterms. On October 18, the White House released an energy policy . The speech highlights various ahead of President Biden’s speech concerns and actions taken by the administration to “strengthen energy security, encourage production, and bring down costs.
The 15 mb SPR drawdown (the final tranche of the 180 mb Spring announcement) drew headlines, but of more interest was the plans to refill the SPR at fixed prices for future delivery “at or below about $67-72/bbl”, offering some support to crude prices below the ‘shale band’. This truncation of the price distribution should encourage investment in growing production – if only marginally. We find marketing and refining margins in the US to be elevated, but the latter is a function of exorbitant international energy prices as well as structurally tight refining markets.
Additional headlines since the OPEC+ meeting have highlighted other policy options available to the Administration. We find incremental SPR sales as the most likely action (16mb is available from FY2023 Congressionally mandated sales), although this remains price dependent: requiring higher prices than present, and likely closer to $125/bbl following the midterms. Such a release is likely to have only a modest influence (<$5/bbl) on oil prices however.
All options have trade-offs. Product export bans in particular could send wholesale global distillate/gasoline prices up $150/$50/bbl respectively (to $300/150/bbl) and still risk shortages and higher prices domestically – especially in coastal regions. All responses leave the ultimate cause of energy underinvestment unaddressed.
We continue to expect headlines into next month’s midterm elections as the US administration attempts to exert downward pressure on retail prices. However, we think action at current price levels remains unlikely. This policy reflexivity is reflected in our current forecasts ($115/bbl Brent in 1Q23 ), as the deficits we expect, following OPEC+’s decision to cut, look unsustainably bullish given scarce inventories and our balance outlook. The risk of inventory depletion and price spikes requiring demand destruction as a rebalancing of last resort could yet move prices $30+/bbl higher.
There is more in the full Goldman reports, including an analysis on why a product export ban will exacerbated the global shortage of refining capacity, why a gasoline federal tax holiday would be modest in impact, why easing sanctions on Venezuela is not a quick fix, and why the “NOPEC” bill has only very limited upside.
For once, we completely agree with Goldman. More in the full note available to pro subs.
END
8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS
end
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM
Euro/USA 0.97488 DOWN 0.0030 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED
USA/ YEN 151.53 UP 1.358 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES
GBP/USA 1.11111 DOWN 0.01095
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 3.88 PTS OR 0.13%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 69.10 POINTS OR 0.42%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.71% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 231.06 PTS OR 1.40%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.33 PTS OR 0.31%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 3.88%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 116.38 PTS OR 0.43%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1623.71
silver:$18.37
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 113.48 UP .59 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 7.2438
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.2445
TURKISH LIRA: 18.60 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.249
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 4.159% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.170UP 4 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 112.24 DOWN 65 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 25.38PTS OR 0.37%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 56.03 POINTS OR 0.44%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 56.97PTS OR 0.94%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 108.90 OR 9.80%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 138.56PTS OR 0.67%
WTI Oil price 84.75 12: EST
Brent Oil: 92.80 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 61.26 UP 0 AND 14/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +24410
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 0.98617 UP .0082 OR 82 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.1305 UP .0084 or 84 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.0986%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.40 DOWN 2.78//YEN UP 278 BASIS PTS//CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3638 DOWN 0.0140 (CDN dollar, UP 140 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 85.03
Brent OIL: 93.53
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.217%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 11 BASIS PTS to 4.326%
USA dollar index:111.79 DOWN 1.03
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.59
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 61.29 UP 0 AND 11/100 ROUBLES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 748.97 PTS OR 2.47 %
*DALY: LITTLE BIT OF PENT-UP TIGHTENING WORKING THROUGH ECONOMY
*DALY: NEED TO WATCH HOW RESTRICTIVE; CAN’T OVERTIGHTEN EITHER; REQUIRES STEP DOWN INTO SMALLER INCREMENTS OF HIKES
But even she backed off from a real dovish perspective…
*DALY: THINK HARD ABOUT STEP DOWN BUT WE’RE NOT THERE YET
Fed’s Evans confirmed the ‘pause’ – not a ‘pivot’…
*EVANS: EXPECT FED TO RAISE RATES FURTHER, HOLD STANCE A WHILE
Fed’s Bullard was his usual hawkish self:
*BULLARD: STRONG JOB MARKET GIVES FED LEEWAY TO FIGHT INFLATION
The result of all this was a dovish drop in terminal rate expectations, but a hawkish shift in subsequent rate-cut expectations (i.e. a pause after Dec/Feb NOT a pivot)…
Source: Bloomberg
75bps is still a lock for November but the odds of a 75bps hike in Dec tumbled from around 70% to around 30%. (and odds of a 50bps hike in Feb dropped to 30% from 50%)…
Source: Bloomberg
Between WSJ and Daly, expectations for the yield curve (OIS) eased notably (5-10bps) from yesterday…
Source: Bloomberg
Has The Fed done enough damage? Financial Conditions are at their tightest (on a month-end basis) since July 2009 and the last 12 months has seen an almost unprecedented tightening of financial conditions…
Source: Bloomberg
While The Fed was jawboning, The Bank of Japan (despite no comment) was clearly in the markets, smashing JPY almost 6 handles stronger after it crashed to 152/USD (in September the intervention sparked a 5.5 handle spike which was completely erased within 3 days)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, speaking to reporters this week, reiterated the country will take appropriate action against speculative moves.
“All the market talk is about intervention,” even though there’s no official confirmation, said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.
“Intervention is only a short-term palliative in current circumstances.”
There’s no official confirmation of intervention, but it “smells like it for sure,” said Alex Etra, a senior strategist at Exante Data Inc. Intervention won’t stop the yen from weakening further because “they are rowing upstream against fundamentals: high energy prices and rate differentials,” he said.
Volumes in yen futures today were dramatically bigger than during the last major intervention…
Kyodo separately reports the country’s top currency official, Masato Kanda, declined to comment on whether the country intervened when asked by reporters.
But hey none of that matters because President Biden claims Republicans want to “crash the economy next year by threatening the full faith and credit of the United States…”?!
And after all that, US equities ripped higher today (Nasdaq was down over 1% in the pre-open, ended up over 2.5%)
And US stocks had their best week since June (with Nasdaq outperforming)…
Interestingly, “most shorted” stocks were barely positive on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Perhaps even more notably, VIX was bid this afternoon as stocks soared – was the world and his pet rabbit buying calls (levered longs)?
Source: Bloomberg
It appears so… S&P vol skew is at extremes (calls max bid over puts)…
Source: Bloomberg
Credit markets are a bloodbath with LQD breaking back below $100 – the same level it traded at in Sept 2008 when Lehman collapsed and the credit market froze. For now, HYG is trading just marginally above the March 2020 COVID lockdown lows in price (when The Fed took the unprecedented action of buying junk bonds)…
Source: Bloomberg
Thanks to today’s plunge in yields (with the short-end dramatically outperforming), 2Y yields ended the week -2bps while the long-end was up over 33bps…
Source: Bloomberg
Today saw the yield curve (2s30s) steepen 20bps (the biggest daily steepening since March 2020) erasing most of the flattening (inversion) from September’s CPI print plunge. On the week, the curve steepened over 30bps – its biggest steepening since January 2009…
Source: Bloomberg
For some context, this was the 12th straight week of 10Y yields increasing – equaling the record streak of all time from 1984…
Yen’s gains today sent the dollar reeling to its worst day in almost 3 weeks and worst weekly drop since August…erasing all of its post-payrolls gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin puked back below $19000 this morning then ripped back above it on the dollar drop, dovish-ish FedSpeak. $19,000 seems like a key level now for over a month…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold saw its best day since the start of October today (finding support at Sept lows when the BoE panicked), pushing the precious metal higher on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices were flat on the week despite Biden’s promises with WTI ending around $85…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, here’s St.Louis Fed’s Jim Bullard explaining the situation to those who still don’t get it… “I would not call lower equity prices financial stress…”
Source: Bloomberg
So, don’t hold your breath for a Fed Put reappearing anytime soon.
But this, on the other hand, could be a major problem, the all important FRA-OIS indicator of interbank funding stress (and money-market risk) is surging above 45bps (when The Fed last stepped in with unprecedented size to flood the lane during the COVID lockdowns)…
Source: Bloomberg
In fact, on a month-end basis, FRA-OIS is at its most-stressed since Dec 2011
A very quick primer on this all important spread:
What is FRA? A forward rate agreement is a deal to swap future fixed interest payments for variable ones, or vice versa. The key rate for U.S. markets is the three-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, in U.S. dollars. The benchmark is derived by major banks submitting rates based on transactions that are compiled to establish benchmark for five different currencies across seven different loan periods. Those benchmarks underpin interest rates on trillions of dollars of financial instruments and products from student and car loans to mortgages and credit cards.
What is OIS? The Overnight Index Swap rate is calculated from contracts in which investors swap fixed- and floating-rate cash flows. Some of the most commonly used swap rates relate to the Federal Reserve’s main interest-rate target, and those are regarded as proxies for where markets see U.S. central bank policy headed at various points in the future.
That’s the theory. But why does the FRA-OIS spread matter in practice?
Well, it’s regarded as the markets’ measure of how expensive or cheap it will be for banks to borrow in the future, as shown by Libor, relative to a risk-free rate, the kind that’s paid by highly rated sovereign borrowers such as the U.S. government. The FRA-OIS spread therefore provides another snapshot of how the market is viewing credit conditions because of the fact that traders are betting on where Libor-OIS – its underlying spread – will be.
As a further reminder, there are typically 3 reasons why it would blow out:
the risk premium for uncertainty of US monetary policy,
recently elevated credit spreads (CDS) of banks, and
demand for funds in preparation for market stress.
Whatever the reasons, a blow out in FRA/OIS means that dollar funding is becoming increasingly problematic, amid an ominous global dollar shortage.
In summary, if the FRA-OIS spikes another 10-15 points, the Fed will have no choice but to emerge from its paralysis and reassure markets that the financial system isn’t about to experience another paralysis… which is perhaps why all the sudden jawboning on rate-hikes and pauses are happening.
end
I) / LATE MORNING// TRADING//
reason for the rise in stock prices this morning:
(our whisperer has spoken)
Stocks Spike After WSJ ‘Fed Whisperer’ Hints At Pause/Pivot
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 09:17 AM
WSJ Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos has set the narrative once again this morning, writing that while 75bps is a done deal for the November meeting, the FOMC discussion will be a “critical staging ground” for potential step down to 50bps in December.
Simply put, Timiraos explains that some Fed officials want to discuss a slowing of the velocity of rate-hikes (to 50bps in Dec from 75bps exp) without triggering a stock market melt-up (and subsequent easing of financial conditions). So Timiraos’ report is a strawman meant to shake out the initial reactions and build the narrative that 50bps is still a significant hike…
2Y Treasury yields reacted (dovishly) immediately to Timiraos’ comments…
And of course algos ramped stocks higher…
The problem is, Fed rate hike expectations shifted modestly lower but rate-cut hopes tightened suggesting this looks more like a ‘pause’ than a ‘pivot’ being priced in…
And the odds of hikes in Nov, Dec, and Feb remain high but have fallen on this report (8% odds of 100bps in Nov, 40% odds of 75bps in Dec, 45% odds of 50bps in Feb)…
More signaling… despite constant hawkish chatter this week from Fed speakers. However, the market seems to be interpreting this as a ‘pivot’ when it is very clear what is being discussed is a hike-and-hold, higher rates for longer.
Investors are anticipating a sequence of pivots, from a slowdown in rate rises to a stop in rate rises to rate cuts. “They keep jumping ahead to the last pivot, and we’re a long way from the Fed cutting rates,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
“The equity market has been so eager to see pivots by the Fed,” she said.
“Fed officials have to explain that 50 basis points is still a meaningful increase.”
We give the last word to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who said Tuesday: “The problem for me with trying to say, ‘Hey, it’s time to pause,’ is we’re not even sure that we’ve got rates high enough to push services inflation down.”
AFTERNOON TRADING//
ii) USA DATA/
end
-END-
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Next to warn: Adidas
(zerohedge)
Adidas Warns On Guidance, Inventory Buildup, For The Second Time In Three Months
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 10:29 AM
If Adidas shoes are any type of economic indicator, there’s pain ahead.
That’s because the company warned this week that “unsold goods are piling up” as demand has weakened both in China and in Western markets, according to Bloomberg. The company’s stock was clipped to the tune of 10% on Thursday after the retailer issued the warning.
Adidas is still dealing with issues leftover from former Chief Executive Officer Kasper Rorsted, who left the company in the midst of a PR crisis with rapper Kanye West, who has now found himself to be public enemy #1 with the mainstream media.
His shoes, the Yeezy line, could now be in jeopardy, the report notes, and the stock has given up all of the gains it tacked on during the six years that Rorsted was CEO. The company sports a market cap that is now about 15% that of Nike’s.
It also marks the second time the company has warned in just three months. Adidas says full year revenue will be up only mid single digits instead of high single digits for the year.
Adidas attributed the warning to “a deterioration in store traffic trends in Greater China and a slowdown in demand in western markets since September”. China was once the company’s largest area of growth, the report says. But consumer boycotts and Covid restrictions have pressured the company.
Like many other companies we have been writing about over the last 3 months, suffering the “bullwhip” effect, the company is predicting an “overhang of inventory” as a result.
And it doesn’t look like things are going to get better anytime soon. Piral Dadhania of RBC said in a note last week that the company is probably only “part-way through in lowering earnings expectations”. A new incoming CEO could wind up abandoning the company’s financial targets through 2025, Dadhania said.
What a doorknob…Biden is weighing blocking the Musk twitter deal on”national security” grounds. Musk will be very happy not to buy this junk!
(zerohedge)
Biden Admin Weighs Blocking Twitter Deal On “National Security” Grounds… Just As Musk Wanted
THURSDAY, OCT 20, 2022 – 11:55 PM
One month ago we joked that should the Delaware judge force Musk to buy Twitter, then none other than the US government would step in and prevent the South African from gaining control over the blue-checkmark echo chamber of record, the one social media network which congressional testimony after congressional testimony has argued it can manipulate the outcome of elections.
Well, that prediction is about to come true, because according to Bloomberg, the Biden administration is discussing whether the US should subject some of Elon Musk’s ventures to national security reviews, including the deal for Twitter and SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network, citing people familiar with the matter.
In short, not only is the deep state government preparing to block Musk’s acquisition of TWTR on national security grounds (unlcear what that would achieve as the stock would crater to single digits, especially after today’s SNAP earnings, and so many of its employees have already quit), but it may “expropriate” Musk’s satellite pet project too, all for daring to ask a question about the US involvement in Ukraine, and what exactly the endgame there is.
As Bloomberg adds, “US officials have grown uncomfortable over Musk’s recent threat to stop supplying the Starlink satellite service to Ukraine — he said it had cost him $80 million so far — and what they see as his increasingly Russia-friendly stance following a series of tweets that outlined peace proposals favorable to President Vladimir Putin. They are also concerned by his plans to buy Twitter with a group of foreign investors.”
The discussions are still at an early stage, the people familiar said on condition of anonymity. Officials in the US government and intelligence community are weighing what tools, if any, are available that would allow the federal government to review Musk’s ventures.
One possible legal pathway is through the law governing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to review Musk’s deals and operations for national security risks. The CFIUS was used extensively in the Trump admin to block and undo numerous Chinese deals, arguing they could pose a national threat to the US. Now, it’s none other than Musk who has emerged as the deep state’s biggest nemesis.
As a reminder, the interagency panel known as CFIUS reviews acquisitions of US businesses by foreign buyers. That said, it is not clear if a CFIUS review — which would involve assessments by the Departments of State, Defense, and Homeland Security, among others — would offer the government a legal way to conduct a review.
But one may not be necessary: just like the infamous FISA courts, the CFIUS panel operates in total secrecy, behind closed doors, and rarely confirms when it is conducting reviews. CFIUS also holds the power to review deals that have already been consummated… such as Musk’s acquisition of twitter.
What apparently provoked the government into stepping in, is that Musk was reportedly chatting up a firestorm with persona non grata #1. Recall that ten days ago Vice reported that “Elon Musk Spoke to Putin Before Tweeting Ukraine Peace Plan“, which followed Musk’s frequent, and high abrasive to bluechecks and those with a ukraine flag in their profile, tweeted proposals to end Russia’s war and threats to cut financial support for Starlink internet in Ukraine. His tweets and public comments “have frustrated officials in the US and Europe and drawn praise from America’s rivals” as Bloomberg put it.
Musk later backed down from his threat to stop deploying Starlink and said he would continue to bear the costs of the service. Starlink has become an essential tool for communications in Ukraine during the Russian invasion. Musk has been providing the service for free but has said SpaceX loses $20 million a month providing it to Ukraine and he cannot be responsible for that cost indefinitely.
In short, Musk created just enough “pro-Putin” innuendo around himself – ostensibly even telling Ian Bremmer that he spoke directly with Vladimir Putin (Musk naturally denied this after it was published)…
… to provoke the US government to intervene on security grounds. After all, you can’t have the world’s most valuable public forum in the hands of a pro-Putin fanatic.
Which… may have been precisely what Musk wanted, as we said ten days ago when news of Musk’s Putin phone call first emerged, there is “No easier way to kill the Twitter deal than have DOJ step in and prohibit it.“
Indeed, when Delaware Chancery court is about to rule that you must consummate your $44 billion acquisition of a company that, as SNAP today showed, is worth less than $10 billion, your best… no, your only bet is to force the government to step in and demand the deal falls apart. And how do you do that? Why demand the judge pushes back the court case by a few weeks in which you blast out what to the Biden admin seems to be unhinged pro-Putin propaganda.
Well, Elon old chap, golf clap to a beautifully executed plan.
And while the world’s richest man would never come out and confirm any this, he did the next best thing late on Thursday when in response to a fellow reader’s reaction to the Bloomberg article, that “It would be hysterical if the government stopped Elon from over paying for Twitter”, Musk responded simply ““… Because the collapse of the deal would be just what Musk wanted (and intended) from the very beginning.
III B USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//INFLATION WATCH
end
SWAMP STORIES
ABC News Producer Missing Since FBI Raid, Was Writing Book About Botched Afghanistan Withdrawal
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 11:40 AM
A star reporter for ABC News has been missing since an April 27 FBI raid at his Arlington, Virginia apartment.
Emmy award winner James Gordon Meek – a deep-dive journalist who was also a former senior counterterrorism adviser and investigator for the House Homeland Security Committee, abruptly quit his job of 9 years and “fell off the face of the earth,” after the raid, one of his colleagues told Rolling Stone.
At the time of the raid, Meek, 52, was co-authoring a now-published book about the botched US withdrawal from Afghanistan. According to ‘sources familiar with the matter,’ federal agents allegedly found classified information on Meek’s laptop during their raid – though one investigative journalist who had worked with him said it would be highly unusual for a reporter to do so.
“Mr. Meek is unaware of what allegations anonymous sources are making about his possession of classified documents,” said his lawyer, Eugene Gorokhov, in a statement. “If such documents exist, as claimed, this would be within the scope of his long career as an investigative journalist covering government wrongdoing. The allegations in your inquiry are troubling for a different reason: they appear to come from a source inside the government. It is highly inappropriate, and illegal, for individuals in the government to leak information about an ongoing investigation. We hope that the DOJ [Department of Justice] promptly investigates the source of this leak.”
As Rolling Stone notes, it’s unclear what story Meek could have been working on that would have put him in the FBI’s crosshairs.
Meek worked on extremely sensitive topics — from high-profile terrorists to Americans held abroad to the exploits of Erik Prince, the founder of the infamous military contractor Blackwater. In recent years, some of Meek’s highest-profile reporting delved into a 2017 ambush by ISIS in Niger that left four American Green Berets dead. Meek and ABC then adapted the story into the feature-length documentary 3212 Un-Redacted, which debuted last year on Veteran’s Day on ABC’s sister company Hulu.
A robust Emmy campaign began prior to Meek’s disappearance, with events like a screening and Q&A at the Motion Picture Association in D.C. that the journalist attended with one of his daughters. The story was particularly incendiary because it undermined the Pentagon’s official narrative of what happened on the ground in the African nation, and presented “evidence of a cover-up at the highest levels of the Army,” according to the film’s logline. Adding intrigue, sources say another ABC News investigative journalist, Brian Epstein, also abruptly and inexplicably left the network a few months before Meek. Epstein also worked as a director, producer, and cinematographer on 3212 Un-Redacted (Hulu stopped Emmy campaigning after Meek apparently went AWOL, and the documentary ultimately failed to receive a nomination). Epstein told Rolling Stone, “I’m not commenting on this story,” before abruptly hanging up. -Rolling Stone
Meanwhile, Meek’s co-author on the Afghanistan book, retired Green Beret Lt. Col. Scott Mann, says he has no idea what happened.
“He contacted me in the spring, and was really distraught, and told me that he had some serious personal issues going on and that he needed to withdraw from the project,” Mann told Rolling Stone. “As a guy who’s a combat veteran who has seen that kind of strain — I don’t know what it was — I honored it. And he went on his way, and I continued on the project.”
Whistleblower set to blow up Joe Biden’s presidency, linking him to son Hunter’s shady business deals
Robert Hryniak
9:54 AM (55 minutes ago)
to
Only in America could such a leader be elected …. Mine you it seems all politicians these days have been scraped from the bottom of the barrel.
A Democratic myth has arisen that former President Donald Trump’s denial of the accuracy of the 2020 vote was “unprecedented.”
Unfortunately, the history of U.S. elections is often a story of both legitimate and illegitimate election denialism.
The 1800, 1824, 1876, and 1960 elections were all understandably questioned.
In some of these cases, a partisan House of Representatives decided the winner.
Presidential candidate Al Gore in 2000 did not accept the popular vote results in Florida. He spent five weeks futilely contesting the state’s tally – until recounts and the Supreme Court certified it.
The ensuing charge that former President George W. Bush was “selected not elected” was the Democrats’ denialist mantra for years.
In 2004, Senator Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. and 31 Democratic House members voted not to certify the Ohio election results in their unhinged efforts to overturn the election.
Those denialists included the current sanctimonious chairman of the January 6 select committee, U.S. Representative Benny Thompson, D-Miss.
After 2016, crackpot Democratic orthodoxy for years insisted that Trump had “colluded” with Russia to “steal” certain victory from Hillary Clinton.
Clinton herself claimed that Trump was not a “legitimate” president. No wonder she loudly joined #TheResistance to obstruct his presidency.
The serial denialist Clinton later urged Joe Biden not to concede the 2020 election if he lost.
Also after 2016, left-wing third-party candidate and denialist Jill Stein vainly sued in courts to disqualify voting machine results in preselected states.
A denialist host of Hollywood C-list actors in 2016 cut television commercials begging members of the Electoral College to violate their oaths and instead flip the election to Hillary Clinton.
Clinton herself had hired foreign national Christopher Steele to concoct a dossier of untruths to smear her 2016 campaign opponent, Trump.
The FBI took up Clinton’s failed efforts. It likewise paid in vain her ancillaries like Christopher Steele to “verify” the dossier’s lies.
The bureau further misled a FISA court about the dossier’s authenticity. An FBI lawyer even altered a document, as part of a government effort to disrupt a presidential transition and presidency.
The Clinton-FBI Russian-collusion hoax was a small part of the progressive effort to warp the 2016 election result.
The Washington Post giddily bragged about various groups formed to impeach Trump in his first days in office, on the pretext he was illegitimately elected.
Rosa Brooks, an Obama Administration Pentagon lawyer, less than two weeks after Trump’s inauguration wrote a long denialist essay in Foreign Policy outlining a strategy to remove the supposedly illegitimate president. She discussed the options of impeachment, the 25th Amendment – and even a military coup.
When rioting exploded in the streets of Washington D.C. after the election results became clear, Madonna infamously shouted to a mass crowd that she dreamed of blowing up the White House, presumably with the Trump family in it.
Was that not the most violent form of election denialism?
The election denialist Stacey Abrams became a media heartthrob and left-wing cult hero. Abrams monetized her ridiculous denialism (“voter suppression”) by stumping the country from 2018 to 2021 claiming, without evidence, that the 2018 the Georgia gubernatorial election was rigged. In truth, she lost by over 50,000 votes.
Time magazine’s Molly Ball in a triumphalist essay bragged that in 2020 a combination of Big Tech money from Silicon Valley – fueled by Mark Zuckerberg’s $419 million infusion – absorbed the balloting collection and counting of several key voting precincts weighed to help Biden.
Ball bragged of careful pre-election censoring of the contemporary news by Big Tech. Most notably, that effort spread the lie that the Hunter Biden laptop scandal was “Russian disinformation.”
Left-wing interest groups modulated the often-violent Black Lives Matter and Antifa street protests of 2020 in efforts to aid the Biden campaign.
Ball summed up that left-wing election engineering effort as “a conspiracy unfolding behind the scenes” and called it “the secret history of the 2020 election.”
So, who exactly were those “secret” warpers of the 2020 election?
As Ball put it:
“A well-funded cabal of powerful people, ranging across industries and ideologies, working together behind the scenes to influence perceptions, change rules and laws, steer media coverage and control the flow of information.”
It is entirely legitimate to question the probity and legality of those systematic left-wing efforts in key states to overturn long-standing voting laws passed by state legislatures.
Then followed an even larger effort to render Election Day a mere construct for the first time in American history. Over 100 million ballots were not cast on Election Day, the vast majority of them (and by design) Biden votes. Somehow customary ballot disqualification rates of mail-in ballots in some states plunged – even as their numbers exploded.
The scariest form of election interference was the 2020 “cabal.”
The FBI, Silicon Valley, street protesters, and the media all conspired to work for the “right result.”
Apparently, that “conspiracy” was the denialists’ response to the 2016 victory of Trump that they never accepted.
end
Red states are now abandoning Blackrock over their woke political agenda
(Spence/EpochTimes)
Missouri Latest State To Divest From BlackRock Over ‘Woke Political Agenda’
Missouri plans to remove $500 million of its pension fund investments from BlackRock, making it the latest state to divest from the world’s largest asset manager in response to the company’s overt leftist agenda.
State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick announced the plans on Oct. 18.
The realignment followed Louisiana’s Oct. 5 announcement on its pending removal of $794 million from BlackRock, and divestments of $100 million and $125 million by Utah and Arkansas, respectively.
The withdrawals result from BlackRock’s environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives and its prioritization of a “woke political agenda.”
“We should not allow asset managers such as BlackRock, who have demonstrated that they will prioritize advancing a woke political agenda above the financial interests of their customers, to continue speaking on behalf of the state of Missouri,” Fitzpatrick told Fox Business.
Fitzpatrick’s statement echoes Louisiana Treasurer John Schroder, who stated in an Oct. 5 letter to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, “Your blatantly anti-fossil fuel policies would destroy Louisiana’s economy. … We cannot be party to the crippling of our own economy.”
Republican States Say ‘Enough’
Over the past few years, BlackRock’s CEO has pursued an aggressive agenda focusing on shaping society to meet a specific political agenda.
In his 2022 letter to CEOs, Fink stated that “capitalism has the power to shape society and act as a powerful catalyst for change” and “when we harness the power of both the public and private sectors, we can achieve truly incredible things. This is what we must do to get to net zero.”
In his 2020 letter to CEOs, Fink wrote that BlackRock would significantly reallocate its capital from “investments that present a high sustainability-related risk, such as thermal coal producers,” and screen against investing in other fossil fuels. He then added a warning to CEOs.
“Last year, BlackRock voted against or withheld votes from 4,800 directors at 2,700 different companies. Where we feel companies and boards are not producing effective sustainability disclosures or implementing frameworks for managing these issues, we will hold board members accountable,” Fink wrote.
Fink and BlackRock are now facing their playbook as Republican-led states move to withdraw capital to achieve an objective—a retraction from BlackRock’s focus on ESG initiatives and promotion of a “woke agenda.”
Fitzpatrick accused BlackRock of breaching its fiduciary duty.
“Fiduciary duty must remain the top priority for investment managers—a duty some of them have abdicated in favor of forcing a left-wing social and political agenda that has failed to succeed legislatively, on publicly traded companies,” Fitzpatrick wrote.
This will go to the Supreme Court and then he will be exonerated
(zerohedge)
Steve Bannon Sentenced To 4 Months For Defying Jan. 6 Subpoena
FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 11:03 AM
Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon was sentenced to four months in jail and ordered to pay a $6,500 fine for ignoring a subpoena from the Jan. 6 select committee.
Prosecutors had sought a six-month jail sentence and a $200,000 fine for contempt of congress. He was released pending appeal, for which his lawyers say they will go all the way to the Supreme Court if necessary.
“I want to thank all you guys for coming,” Bannon said while entering the courthouse on Friday. “Remember this illegitimate regime, their judgment day is on eight November when the Biden administration ends. I want to thank you all for coming.”
“And remember, take down the CCP. Thank you.“
Bannon, 68, was charged with two counts last November; failure to appear to give testimony, and failure to produce “documents and communications,” or “provide a log of any withheld records.”
“From the moment that the Defendant, Stephen K. Bannon, accepted service of a subpoena from the House Select Committee … he has pursued a bad-faith strategy of defiance and contempt,” reads the a Monday DOJ filing, which adds that “The defendant flouted the Committee’s authority and ignored the subpoena’s demands.“
“For his sustained, bad-faith contempt of Congress, the Defendant should be sentenced to six months’ imprisonment—the top end of the Sentencing Guidelines’ range—and fined $200,000—based on his insistence on paying the maximum fine rather than cooperate with the Probation Office’s routine pre-sentencing financial investigation.”
As we noted on Monday, it hasn’t gone unnoticed that many notables in the ‘protected class’ have been held in contempt of Congress – particularly former Obama AG Eric Holder, who refused to turn over documents related to the Fast and Furious scandal – with no such treatment.
If the left wanted to make Bannon into a political martyr, mission accomplished.
END
Bannon Responds After Being Handed 4 Month Sentence For Defying Jan. 6 Subpoena
Russia wants to end the war in Ukraine, but it is simply not going to happen. Ukraine wants all their land back the way it was in 1991. Russia annexed a large chunk of southeast Ukraine, and is not giving it back. Meanwhile, the west keeps funding the Ukraine war that is going to get much more painful for Ukrainians. No more parties in Kiev when the power and water is turned off. Martin Armstrong says the west wants a war because the debt is defaulting, and they need someone to blame it on. The satanic globalists say they want to “build back better,” but there may not be much left when it’s all over.
Another week and another bunch of perfectly healthy people who “died suddenly.” A five-year-old died of a brain rupture, a 17-year-old star softball player died when her heart stopped for no apparent reason, and a star bodybuilder who took the CV19 shots and said, “Those of you who think the vaccine kills people can use me as a test.” Bodybuilder Doug Brignole died this week. So, the CV19 vax does kill people. There is no end in sight for the death and disabilities caused by the CV19 injections, and now the CDC just made it mandatory for public school kids.
The problems for the Democrats just keep piling up. The economy keeps tanking, and Democrat midterm candidates are running from the press and any sort of debate for fear of being creamed. Dem campaign managers are bailing out, and more court cases are being won to curb the cheating. The Dems have a bad message, a bad economy and a bad President. Joe Biden is lucky to have 10% approval if the polls were not all a bunch of fraud. Now, more and more cheating is being whittled down, and it all spells disaster in November or there will be a gigantic false flag to stop the election.
Biden says, “The economy is strong as hell,” but for most Americans, it’s just hell. Inflation is officially at 40-year highs. Mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie are in big insolvency trouble–again. The 30-year mortgage has doubled since January. Home sales have tanked, and the stock market is following the same pattern that it did just before the monster 1929 crash. Experts say it will be far more destructive because the debt is far more out of control and unpayable. Black Monday 1929 was on October 24th. October 24, 2022, is this coming Monday. Bo Polny says look out for a modern Black Monday and a rough next few weeks.
There is much more in the 1-hour newscast.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 10/21/22.
Renowned radio host, filmmaker and author Steve Quayle will come on and update us of the ancient artifacts he’s finding in Mexico, South and Central America that prove the real history is not what governments have been teaching us. Quayle has proof that human DNA has been attacked and altered for thousands of years to wipe out God’s creation.
“… Because the collapse of the deal would be just what Musk wanted (and intended) from the very beginning. 
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